News Trends A Contributors tale of two trends Opinion Business Briefs Business People Almanac
March 10-23, 2022
The Business Times
Page 19
INDICATORS AT A GLANCE
n Business filings
t New business filings in Colorado, 35,625 in the fourth quarter, down 2.9% from the fourth quarter of 2020.
n Confidence
t Consumer Confidence Index 110.5 for February, down 0.6. s Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 58 for the first quarter, up 1.9. t National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 95.7 for February, down 1.4.
n Foreclosures s Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 20 in February, up from 2 in February 2021. t Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 1 in February, down from 5 in February 2021.
n Indexes
s Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 119.18 for February, up 1.03. t Conference Board Leading Economic Index 119.6 for January, down 0.3%. s Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 58.6% for February, up 1%.
n Lodging
s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $249,070 for January, up 70% from January 2021.
n Real estate
t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 336 in February, down 3.4% from February 2021. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $140 million in February, up 14.8% from February 2021.
n Sales
s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $7.5 million for January, up 23.8% from January 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.6 million for January, up 19.4% from January 2021.
n Unemployment t Mesa County — 4.6% for December, down 0.1 t Colorado — 4.8% for December, down 0.3. t United States — 3.8% for February, down 0.2.
While real estate transactions fall, dollar volume climbs in Mesa County Phil Castle
The Business Times
Two trends continue in the Mesa County real estate market — decreasing transactions and increasing dollar volume. It’s a function in part of low supplies pushing prices higher in the face of continued demand, said Annette Young, administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction. “That basically is the story of the day.” But Robert Bray, chief executive officer of Bray & Co. Real Estate in Grand Junction, Annette Young also sees the return of some seasonality to the local market with slowing in the winter months. Rising interest rates on mortgages also could exert more of an effect later this year, he said. “Stay tuned.” Young said 336 real estate transactions worth a total of $140 million were reported in Mesa County in February. Compared to the same month last year, transactions fell 3.4 percent and dollar volume rose 14.8 percent. Just 13 transactions accounted for a Robert Bray combined $26.3 million, Young said. They included the sale of the Mesa View mobile home park for $4.3 million, Ramada Inn property for $3.8 million and 14 acres of commercially zoned vacant land for $3.6 million. For the first two months of 2022, 712 transactions worth a total of $303 million were reported. Compared to the same span in 2021, transactions fell 8.1 percent and dollar volume rose 27.3 percent. According to numbers Bray & Co. tracks for the residential real estate market in Mesa County, 220 transactions worth a total of more than $90.5 million were reported in February. Compared to the same month last year, transactions decreased 16.7 percent and dollar volume increased 7.6 percent.
For the first two months of 2022, 439 residential transactions worth a total of more than $180.3 million were reported. Compared to the same span in 2021, transactions dropped 14 percent and dollar volume jumped 8 percent. Young and Bray said low inventories and the resulting lack of selection hamper sales. And though it’s a seller’s market, some people are reluctant to put their homes on the market for fear they won’t be able to purchase another home into which to move. There were just 190 active residential listings at the end of February. That was a 10.8 percent drop from the same time last year and one of just four months over the past decade in which listings have dropped below 200, Bray said. Meanwhile, home prices continue to increase. The median price of homes sold during the first two months of 2022 rose to $372,000. That’s a 26.1 percent increase over the same span in 2021. “I just don’t see how that sustains itself,” Bray said, adding he expects price appreciation to slow later this year. Bray attributed decreasing transactions in part to seasonal slowing that’s returned two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. That means real estate activity likely will warm up along with the spring and summer weather, he said. Many buyers are purchasing new homes with cash from the sale of their previous homes. But for those using financing, rising interest rates could play a bigger role, Bray said. Higher prices combined with higher interest rates could push some buyers — first-time buyers in particular — out of the market. Meanwhile, property foreclosure activity has picked up in Mesa County, Young said. For the first two months of 2022, 26 foreclosure filings were reported. That’s up from just two for the same span in 2021. Still, the three resales of foreclosed properties during the first two months of 2022 constituted less than 1 percent of overall transactions — far lower than the 10 percent threshold Young considers indicative of a health market. F
Small business optimism drops as worries mount A measure of optimism among small business owners continues to decline even as concerns mount over inflation, supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. “Inflation continues to be a problem on Main Street, leading more owners to raise selling prices again in February,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Business. “Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages also remain problems, leading to lower earnings and sales for many.” The NFIB reported its Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.4 points to 95.7 in Bill Dunkelberg February. It was the second consecutive month the index dropped below 98, the average reading over the past 48 years. The small business advocacy group bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members, most of them small business owners. For February, six of 10 components of the index retreated. Asked to identify their single most important business problem, 26 percent of those who responded to the survey upon which the February index was based cited inflation. That proportion has climbed four points since December to the highest level since the third quarter of 1981. Another 22 percent of respondents cited quality of labor and 11 percent cited labor costs.
A net 68 percent of owners reported raising average selling prices, a record high. Price hikes were most frequent in the retail, wholesale and construction sectors. A net 45 percent reported raising compensation, down five points from a record reading in January. A net 28 percent said they expect to raise compensation in the next three months, however. The proportion of business owners who said they expect the economy to improve fell another two points from January. At a net negative 35 percent, more respondents said they anticipated worsening conditions. A net 27 percent reported plans for capital outlays, also down two points. A net 8 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, down a point. A net 19 percent of owners reported plans to increase staffing, down seven points. A net 48 percent reported unfilled job openings, up a point. The share of those who said they expect more sales fell three points to a net negative 6 percent. The share of those reporting higher earnings remained unchanged at a net negative 17 percent. Among those reporting lower earnings, 28 percent blamed weaker sales and 28 percent cited higher material costs. A net 2 percent of owners reported plans to increase inventories, down a point. A net 7 percent said existing inventories were too low, unchanged from January. F
