Real estate activity has rebounded in Mesa County to surpass sales and dollar

The Business Times News Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors Real estate sales accelerate t New business filings in Colorado, 31,221 in the second quarter, down 1.7% from the second quarter of 2019. Opinion But low residential inventory continues to affect Mesa County market Phil Castle The Business Times A recent surge in positive cases of COVID-19 in Mesa County could affect real estate activity again, Miller said. n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 100.9 in October, down 0.4. s Leeds Business Confidence Business Briefs Real estate activity has rebounded in Mesa County to surpass sales and dollar volume levels from a year ago. Activity might have been even more brisk But other factors also have been in play, she said, including low interest rates on mortgages as well an increase in the number of people capable of moving because of remote work — some from big cities to more rural areas and others on a more localized basis. Labor markets also affect real estate markets, she added. Business People if low inventories hadn’t hampered residential transactions. “These numbers are definitely tempered by that,” said Annette Miller, senior vice president Index for Colorado, 47.9 for the fourth quarter, up 3.6. n National Federation of Independent Business Small Almanac According to numbers tracked by Bray Real Estate, 383 residential real estate transactions worth a total of $123 million were reported in October. Compared to the same month last year, transactions increased 3.5 percent and dollar volume rose 17.1 percent. Business Optimism Index at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction. Through the first 10 months of 2020, 3,3331 residential 104 for October, unchanged. Robert Bray, chief executive officer of Annette Miller transactions worth a total of $1 billion were reported. Compared to n Foreclosures t Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 2 in October, down from 16 in October 2019. Bray Real Estate in Grand Junction, said low inventories have not only limited transactions, but also pushed median sales prices higher. “The median is moving.” Miller said 579 real estate transactions the same span in 2019, transactions were down about six-tenths of a percent and dollar volume was up 4.8 percent. Bray said low housing inventories have slowed the pace of sales while increasing the price. Fewer homes are available. Many of the homes that are available are in higher price ranges. t Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 2 in October, down from 9 in October 2019. worth a total of $186 million were reported in Mesa County in October. Compared to the same month last year, transactions increased 16.5 percent and dollar volume rose 10.1 percent. As of the end of October, there were 374 active residential listings in Mesa County. That’s half the number from a year ago. The median price of homes sold in October rose 15.1 percent to $305,000 compared to the same month last year. The median price n Indexes Seven large transactions worth a combined $11 million bolstered dollar volume, Miller Robert Bray for homes sold year to date increased 11.8 percent to $285,000. Miller and Bray said they expect real estate sales for 2020 to s Conference Board Employment said, including the sale of the Best Buy property near Mesa Mall for come close to 2019, remaining at one of the highest levels in more Trends Index, 97.57 for $2.9 million, the sale of a home in Redlands Mesa for $1.85 million than a decade. “We do still have a healthy market,” Miller said. October, up 1.24. and the sale of vacant commercial land along the Interstate Highway Meanwhile, property foreclosure activity has slowed nearly to s Conference Board Leading 70 Business Loop for $1.65 million. a halt, Miller said, with two foreclosure filings and two foreclosure Economic Index 107.2 for Through the first 10 months of 2020, 4,654 transactions worth sales in October. Through the first 10 months of 2020, 83 filings September, up 0.7% a collective $1.43 billion were reported, Miller said. Compared and 28 sales were reported, down 54.6 percent and 69.9 percent, s Institute for Supply Management to the same span in 2019, transactions increased 1.5 percent and respectively, from the same span in 2019. Purchasing Managers Index dollar volume 2.7 percent. The 27 resales of foreclosed property over the first 10 months for the manufacturing sector, October was the first month in which year-to-date transactions of 2020 was less than 1 percent of all real estate transactions and 59.3% for October, up 3.9%. outpaced last year since April. The five-month span reflected in a fraction of the 10 percent threshold Miller considers indicative n Lodging part the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and related restrictions which at first prohibited showings and open houses. of a healthy market. F t Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $135,823 for September, down 24.3% from September 2019. Small Business Optimism Index holds steady n Real estate A measure of optimism among small business owners remains which the index was based who reported higher earnings over the s Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 579 in October, up 16.5% from October 2019. unchanged on a mix of positive and negative expectations for the months ahead. The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business past three months rose nine points from September. But at a net negative 3 percent, more owners still reported lower than higher earnings. Among those reporting higher profits, 70 percent cited increased sales. Among those reporting lower profits, 52 percent s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, Optimism Index held steady at 104 in October. The latest reading remains slightly blamed decreased sales and 7 percent labor costs. Since June, the component tracking earnings trends has $186 million in October, up higher than the historical average of 100 for rebounded 32 points. 10.1% from October 2019. the 46-year-old index. A net 11 percent of respondents expect higher sales, up three “Leading up to the presidential election, points. n Sales small businesses continued to focus on A net 12 percent plan to increase inventories, up a point to a s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5 million stabilizing their businesses, but were uncertain about the future economic conditions due to Bill Dunkelberg record high. A net 4 percent said current inventories were too low, down a point. for September, up 1.4% from COVID-19 government regulations on all A net 27 percent of respondents said they expect the economy September 2019. levels,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB. “We to improve over the next six months, down five points. s Sales and use tax collections see solid momentum going into the fourth quarter, and another A net 27 percent reported plans for capital outlays, down a in Mesa County, $3.7 million good quarter could get the GDP back to its 2019 closing levels.” point. A net 13 percent said they consider now a good time to for October, up 12.2% from The results of the survey were collected before the election, expand, unchanged. October 2019. and there could be uncertainty moving forward related to election A net 18 percent of respondents reported plans to increase n Unemployment results, the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and possible government-mandated shutdowns. staffing, down five points. A net 33 percent reported at least one unfilled job opening, down three points. t Colorado — 6.4% for September, down 0.3. t Mesa County — 5.7% for September, down 0.5. t United States — 6.9% for October, down 1.0. The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners. For October, four of 10 components of the index advanced, five retreated and one remained unchanged. The proportion of those responding to the survey upon At the same time, 22 percent cited finding qualified labor as their single most important business problem, ahead of taxes, government regulations and poor sales. In the construction sector, 35 percent of respondents said finding qualified workers was the top concern. F

Page 20 The Business Times November 12-25, 2020 U.S. labor estimates show jobs up, jobless rate down A measure of consumer confidence has slipped on less upbeat expectations for business and labor conditions. Confidence index declines

Payrolls swelled and the unemployment The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence rate retreated in October as labor conditions continued to improve in the United States. Labor index rises Index fell four-tenths of a point to 100.9 in October. A component of the index tracking current conditions increased. But a component

Nonfarm payrolls grew 638,000 and A measure of labor conditions tracking the short-term outlook decreased. the jobless rate fell a point to 6.9 percent, in the United States continues to Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at according to the latest U.S. Bureau of increase, but at a slowing pace that the Conference Board, said the short-term outlook for jobs Labor Statistics estimates. forecasts declining job growth. has softened. “There is little to suggest that consumers foresee

Both the increase in payrolls and The Conference Board reported the economy gaining momentum in the final months of 2020, decrease in the unemployment rate its Employment Trends Index rose 1.24 especially with COVID-19 cases on the rise and unemployment exceeded expectations. points to 97.57 in October. The index still high.” Lynn Franco

Initial estimates for payroll gains has increased six straight months, but The business membership and research group bases the in September and October were revised remains 11.1 percent below a year ago. index on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists closely monitor the upward a total of 15,000. “The Conference Board expects index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic

Payrolls have increased in each of the job growth to slow,” said Gad activity. last six months, but employment remains Levanon, head of the Conference For October, more optimistic assessments of current conditions pushed up the 10.1 million below February and the onset Board Labor Markets Institute. present situation component of the index 5.7 points to 104.6. of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. F The proportion of those who responded to the survey upon which the October

For October, the number of people index was based who described business conditions as “good” slipped a tenth of counted among those unsuccessfully looking and business services and 104,000 in a point to 17.5 percent. But the share of those who said business conditions were for work fell 1.5 million to 11.1 million. retail trades. Payrolls increased 84,000 in “bad” fell 3.1 points to 33.9 percent. The number of those on temporary layoffs construction, 79,000 in health care and The proportion of those who called jobs “plentiful” increased 2.9 points to 26.5 declined 1.4 million to 3.2 million. 63,000 in transportation and warehousing. percent. The share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” decreased four-tenths

Another 6.7 million were counted Government payrolls dropped 268,000 of a point to 19.9 percent. among those working part time because with the layoffs of 147,000 temporary Less upbeat responses pulled down the expectations component of the index their hours were cut or they were unable to employees working on the 2020 census. 4.5 points to 98.4. fin full-time positions. The average workweek for employees The share of those who expected business conditions to improve over the next

The labor participation rate increased on private, nonfarm payrolls held steady at six months fell four-tenths of a point to 36.3 percent. The proportion of those who three-tenths of a point to 61.7 percent. 34.8 hours. The manufacturing workweek anticipated worsening conditions rose 1.2 points to 17 percent. That’s 1.7 points below the February level. lengthened three-tenths of an hour to 40.5 The share of those who expected more jobs to become available in the months

Payroll gains in October were spread hours. ahead rose three-tenths of a point to 33.2 percent. But the proportion of those who out among a number of industry sectors. Average hourly wages on private, anticipated fewer jobs increased more — 4.1 points to 20.2 percent. Employment increased 271,000 in leisure nonfarm payrolls rose 4 cents to $29.50. F and hospitality, 208,000 in professional F

Leading index continues to increase, but signals slowing ahead

A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to increase, but at a pace that signals slowing.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose seven-tenths of a percent to 107.2 in September. The gain was the fifth in as many months.

Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director Ataman Ozyildirim of economic research at the Conference Board, said the economy is projected to expand in the fourth quarter, but at annual rate of 1.5 percent. “Furthermore, downside risks to the recovery may be increasing amid rising new cases of COVID-19 and continued labor market weakness.”

The LEI increased 3.6 percent in the past six months, reversing a 7.3 percent decline over the six months before that. Strengths among leading indicators have been more widespread than weaknesses.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, grew at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter after contracting 31.4 percent in the second quarter.

For September, five of 10 indicators of the LEI advanced, including building permits, interest rate spread and leading credit and new orders indexes. A decrease in average weekly claims for unemployment insurance also bolstered the index. New orders for capital goods and stock prices retreated. Average weekly manufacturing hours, consumer expectations for business conditions and new orders for consumer goods held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current conditions, rose two-tenth of a percent to 101.7. The index increased 3.5 percent over the previous six months.

For September, three of four indicators advanced: nonfarm incomes, personal income and sales. Industrial production declined.

The Lagging Economic Index, a measure of past performance, slipped a tenth of a percent to 107.6. The index decreased 1.2 percent over the past three months.

For September, two of seven indicators advanced: the cost of services and inventories. Commercial and industrial financing, consumer credit and the cost of labor declined. An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks remained unchanged. F