News Trends Real estate sales accelerate Contributors Opinion Business Briefs Business People Almanac
November 12-25, 2020
The Business Times
Page 19
INDICATORS AT A GLANCE
n Business filings
t New business filings in Colorado, 31,221 in the second quarter, down 1.7% from the second quarter of 2019.
n Confidence
t Consumer Confidence Index 100.9 in October, down 0.4. s Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 47.9 for the fourth quarter, up 3.6. n National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 104 for October, unchanged.
n Foreclosures
t Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 2 in October, down from 16 in October 2019. t Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 2 in October, down from 9 in October 2019.
n Indexes
s Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 97.57 for October, up 1.24. s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 107.2 for September, up 0.7% s Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector, 59.3% for October, up 3.9%.
n Lodging
t Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $135,823 for September, down 24.3% from September 2019.
n Real estate
s Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 579 in October, up 16.5% from October 2019. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $186 million in October, up 10.1% from October 2019.
n Sales
s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5 million for September, up 1.4% from September 2019. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $3.7 million for October, up 12.2% from October 2019.
n Unemployment t Mesa County — 5.7% for September, down 0.5. t Colorado — 6.4% for September, down 0.3. t United States — 6.9% for October, down 1.0.
But low residential inventory continues to affect Mesa County market Phil Castle
The Business Times
Real estate activity has rebounded in Mesa County to surpass sales and dollar volume levels from a year ago. Activity might have been even more brisk if low inventories hadn’t hampered residential transactions. “These numbers are definitely tempered by that,” said Annette Miller, senior vice president at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction. Robert Bray, chief executive officer of Annette Miller Bray Real Estate in Grand Junction, said low inventories have not only limited transactions, but also pushed median sales prices higher. “The median is moving.” Miller said 579 real estate transactions worth a total of $186 million were reported in Mesa County in October. Compared to the same month last year, transactions increased 16.5 percent and dollar volume rose 10.1 percent. Seven large transactions worth a combined $11 million bolstered dollar volume, Miller Robert Bray said, including the sale of the Best Buy property near Mesa Mall for $2.9 million, the sale of a home in Redlands Mesa for $1.85 million and the sale of vacant commercial land along the Interstate Highway 70 Business Loop for $1.65 million. Through the first 10 months of 2020, 4,654 transactions worth a collective $1.43 billion were reported, Miller said. Compared to the same span in 2019, transactions increased 1.5 percent and dollar volume 2.7 percent. October was the first month in which year-to-date transactions outpaced last year since April. The five-month span reflected in part the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and related restrictions which at first prohibited showings and open houses.
A recent surge in positive cases of COVID-19 in Mesa County could affect real estate activity again, Miller said. But other factors also have been in play, she said, including low interest rates on mortgages as well an increase in the number of people capable of moving because of remote work — some from big cities to more rural areas and others on a more localized basis. Labor markets also affect real estate markets, she added. According to numbers tracked by Bray Real Estate, 383 residential real estate transactions worth a total of $123 million were reported in October. Compared to the same month last year, transactions increased 3.5 percent and dollar volume rose 17.1 percent. Through the first 10 months of 2020, 3,3331 residential transactions worth a total of $1 billion were reported. Compared to the same span in 2019, transactions were down about six-tenths of a percent and dollar volume was up 4.8 percent. Bray said low housing inventories have slowed the pace of sales while increasing the price. Fewer homes are available. Many of the homes that are available are in higher price ranges. As of the end of October, there were 374 active residential listings in Mesa County. That’s half the number from a year ago. The median price of homes sold in October rose 15.1 percent to $305,000 compared to the same month last year. The median price for homes sold year to date increased 11.8 percent to $285,000. Miller and Bray said they expect real estate sales for 2020 to come close to 2019, remaining at one of the highest levels in more than a decade. “We do still have a healthy market,” Miller said. Meanwhile, property foreclosure activity has slowed nearly to a halt, Miller said, with two foreclosure filings and two foreclosure sales in October. Through the first 10 months of 2020, 83 filings and 28 sales were reported, down 54.6 percent and 69.9 percent, respectively, from the same span in 2019. The 27 resales of foreclosed property over the first 10 months of 2020 was less than 1 percent of all real estate transactions and a fraction of the 10 percent threshold Miller considers indicative of a healthy market. F
Small Business Optimism Index holds steady A measure of optimism among small business owners remains unchanged on a mix of positive and negative expectations for the months ahead. The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index held steady at 104 in October. The latest reading remains slightly higher than the historical average of 100 for the 46-year-old index. “Leading up to the presidential election, small businesses continued to focus on stabilizing their businesses, but were uncertain about the future economic conditions due to Bill Dunkelberg COVID-19 government regulations on all levels,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB. “We see solid momentum going into the fourth quarter, and another good quarter could get the GDP back to its 2019 closing levels.” The results of the survey were collected before the election, and there could be uncertainty moving forward related to election results, the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and possible government-mandated shutdowns. The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners. For October, four of 10 components of the index advanced, five retreated and one remained unchanged. The proportion of those responding to the survey upon
which the index was based who reported higher earnings over the past three months rose nine points from September. But at a net negative 3 percent, more owners still reported lower than higher earnings. Among those reporting higher profits, 70 percent cited increased sales. Among those reporting lower profits, 52 percent blamed decreased sales and 7 percent labor costs. Since June, the component tracking earnings trends has rebounded 32 points. A net 11 percent of respondents expect higher sales, up three points. A net 12 percent plan to increase inventories, up a point to a record high. A net 4 percent said current inventories were too low, down a point. A net 27 percent of respondents said they expect the economy to improve over the next six months, down five points. A net 27 percent reported plans for capital outlays, down a point. A net 13 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, unchanged. A net 18 percent of respondents reported plans to increase staffing, down five points. A net 33 percent reported at least one unfilled job opening, down three points. At the same time, 22 percent cited finding qualified labor as their single most important business problem, ahead of taxes, government regulations and poor sales. In the construction sector, 35 percent of respondents said finding qualified workers was the top concern. F
