Flightcom Magazine February 2023

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- South Africa's Most Punctual

Getting shot in Somalia

The state of African Airlines

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EDITION 169 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Publisher Flyer and Aviation Publications cc

Managing Editor Guy Leitch guy@flightcommag.com

Advertising Sales Wayne Wilson wayne@saflyermag.co.za

Layout & Design Patrick Tillman: Imagenuity cc

FEBRUARY 2023

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Bush Pilot - Hugh Pryor

AME Directory

Defence - Darren Olivier

Defence - Guy Leitch

Pilots - Laura McDermid

Dehorning rhinos - John Bassi

Industry - IATA - Guy Leitch

FACE to FACE - Rodger Foster

Photo Essay SAAF - Trevor Cohen

Alpi Aviation SA: Flight School Directory

Merchant West Charter Directory

Flightcom AMO Listing

Backpage Directory

A NOTE FROM THE EDITOR:

THE FALLOUT FROM THE TWO Boeing Max crashes has been enormous – not just in the 346 lives lost, but in the inestimable damage to the once proud Boeing reputation for engineering excellence.

Now the pendulum is beginning to swing back – and Ethiopia is firmly in the sights of the American establishment.

African aviation regulators have an ongoing struggle to produce quality accident reports. The South African CAA has sporadic bouts of quality, but the Ethiopians have failed dismally in the two investigations that really matter – the Ethiopian 737 Max and the SACAA’s own Citation crash in George.

In direct contradiction, the NTSB found that “… a foreign object, most likely a bird, resulted in the separation of the AOA sensor vane, causing erroneous readings.” The NTSB added that it provided the EAIB with evidence that supports the finding of a foreign object strike, but the EAIB failed to include it in its final report.

A euphemism for poor pilot skills

The EAIB also claimed that; “an open circuit, wire fatigue, .. unexplained electrical/electronic anomalies, and the loss of heater power led to the failure of the AOA sensor.” The NTSB says that an electrical failure of the AOA sensor did not occur before the vane’s impact with a foreign object.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has undiplomatically criticised the Ethiopian Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau's (EAIB) final report on the 737 Max crash. Further, the NTSB’s comments come soon after it criticised ‘the investigation’s insufficient attention to the human performance aspects of the accident’. (A euphemism for poor pilot skills).

AIN Online reports that the Ethiopian report ‘contains findings not supported by evidence. For example, the NTSB specifically cites the EAIB’s conclusion that aircraft electrical problems caused erroneous angleof-attack (AOA) output. In its final report, the EAIB claimed that electrical problems stemming from the aircraft’s construction caused the AOA sensor’s heater to fail.’ As a result, the AOA sensor provided bad data that caused the MCAS to repeatedly pitch the nose of the plane downward until it impacted the ground.

It is hard to disagree with the NTSB. The chances of ‘wire fatigue’ in an almost new plane must be almost nil, and the need for an AOA heater was irrelevant, as it was far from freezing.

Also - the flight data recorder showed no indication of an electrical issue with the resolvers, the NTSB added.

The NTSB also criticised the EAIB’s finding about the lack of MCAS documentation for flight crews. After the Lion Air 737 Max crash, Boeing had provided the information to all 737 Max operators – four months before the Ethiopian crash.

The NTSB says the EAIB issued its final report without giving the FAA the chance to review and comment, as stipulated by the ICAO Annex 13.

For this key investigation the EAIB has been found badly lacking – and it casts African aviation standards in a bad light.

The poor quality of African accident investigation reports is once again in the spotlight.

WHY DO TRAINS ONLY

NEED ONE DRIVER – OR NONE?

IN THE UK, they have a problem operating their trains, because they do not have enough staff to keep them running.

The other day, I was trying to get to London, for an urgent meeting with my publisher and the train stopped at a station called ‘Ifield’, somewhere between Horsham and London Victoria and the driver and the ‘train manager’ packed their bags and went home, because it was the end of their ‘shift’ and it was time for them to get home, before the fish & chips got cold......meanwhile leaving three hundred and seven passengers on the platform at Ifield, with no buses or taxis provided for onward transport to London.

Commuter trains out of London Victoria contain potentially 1,500 passengers and can make as many as twenty-two stops on the way to Horsham.

An airliner, on the other hand, flying from London to New York, might have only fifty passengers occupying its three hundred and fifty seats, but by law it must have one cabin crew member for each fifty seats, which makes a requirement for at least seven crew in the cabin whether the seats are occupied or not.

one cabin crew for each fifty seats

Luckily, the girl sitting opposite me called her brother in Brighton, on her mobile, to come and pick her up from ‘Ifield’ and they very kindly dropped me off back in Horsham, on their way back home.

Now the point which I am trying to make is that the railway companies are trying to reduce their onboardcrew to ‘one’, (or ideally even ‘nil’, like on the train between the North and South Terminals at London’s Gatwick airport.)

Then, of course they need two drivers up the front, but there are trains which don’t have any crew at all on board.

Silly question, but...Why?

What makes an airliner require so many crew? Are airline passengers so much more badly-behaved than train passengers? Is getting onto a train so much easier than getting onto an airliner? Is speeding along at two hundred and fifty kilometres per hour on two ancient pieces of shaped wire, held together by bits of wood or concrete, which, in the case of Horsham’s No 1 Main Line to London, were laid down in 1893, so much safer than flying at eight hundred km/h through thin air?

We have all gone through a terrifying terrestrial threat from the Corona virus, which led to thousands of people losing their jobs. Coming from the aviation industry, that teased a little question into my mind.

Okay, Yes...the aeroplane is way up there, above the clouds and if anything does go wrong then the crew have to get everybody back on the ground, which the Qantas guys did...without loss of life, in that A380 adventure out of Singapore, which can only be described as an extraordinary feat of aviation prowess.

The Stonehaven rail crash however, was caused by a tiny local train ploughing in to a landslip on its way from Aberdeen to Glasgow. The driver and ‘conductor’ were both killed, plus one passenger and six passengers were injured, but survived.

The passengers survived, because they just happened to be sitting in the only carriage which was not crushed, as the train rolled down the embankment.

So what is my ‘point’?

Well both the driver and the ‘conductor’ and one passenger were killed, while they were travelling along on the ground, in a train, at 100 kilometres per hour. So maybe the four hundred and forty people on the A380 were just lucky that their problems only started when they were way up there in the sky. Maybe that is what saved them in reality, rather than having three ‘drivers’ up front and twenty-one ‘conductors’ down the back.

Personally, I cannot travel on that Gatwick transit train between the North and South Terminals, with nobody driving it, without wondering if it will manage to stop in time, when it gets to the far end, before ploughing into the crowded South Terminal.

Give me a decent bunch of cabin and air crew on any airliner that I travel in. And anyway...what are we all going to do with ourselves if we are not allowed to fly aeroplanes or look after passengers?

AME Doctors Listing

an extraordinary feat of aviation prowess 

B-21 RAIDER ROLLS OUT

The United States Air Force has unveiled the Northrup-Grumman B-21 Raider in a ceremony in Palmdale, California.

THE B-21 IS SAID TO BE the first sixth-generation stealth bomber, leapfrogging a few fifth-generation aircraft, including the Lockheed-Martin F-22 and F-35 fighters.

The B-21 Raider, which is similar in appearance to the other stealthy bomber, the B-2, will be an intercontinental bomber capable of delivering either conventional or nuclear bombs.

It’s reportedly more capable in numerous respects than any bomber in the world, though what those capabilities are remains a mystery. According to a recent congressional report on the aircraft, the Raider’s

“…speed, enabling systems, size, required stealth, structure, number and type of engines, projected weapons, and onboard sensors remain classified.”

Even the costs of the programme are secret, though each aircraft is expected to cost around three-quarters of a billion dollars, with the total program cost being more than $200 billion.

Launched in 2011, the B-21 was so designated because it’s the first new bomber of the 21st century. It’s been dubbed the Raider in honour of the Doolittle Raiders of World War II fame.

The B21 Raider is said to be the World's First Sixth Generation aircraft.

DARREN OLIVIER AND GUY LEITCH

SOUTH AFRICA’S GRIPENS – WHAT TO DO WITH THEM?

MARTIN WROTE, “The South African Air Force (SAAF) has 26 Gripens in its inventory but 12 are in “rotational” storage and only 18 Gripen navigators and pilots have been trained to operational status. Which begs the question: what should we do with aircraft we don’t need and can’t afford to operate?

“The solution could be a simple one: sell off the 12 Gripens in storage (since we won’t miss them anyway) and use the money for fuel, pilot training and new equipment that the Air Force desperately needs – its C-130 Hercules fleet is ageing and the Air Force is increasingly forced to rely on charters to move people and equipment to places like the Democratic Republic

of Congo, while the SAAF’s maritime surveillance C-47TPs are more than half a century old and suffering from attrition.

sell off the 12 Gripens in storage

“While the C-47TPs and C-130s are working extremely hard and are in urgent need of replacement, the Gripens are grossly underutilised. Since 2008 the Gripen fleet has flown 3,500 hours, according to a SAAF official, equating to roughly 135 hours per airframe or roughly 20 hours per aircraft per year, or less than two hours per aircraft per month.

“With the cancellation of the order for eight A400Ms in 2009, the SAAF was left without a clear replacement for the C-130BZ fleet and, since the deposit was paid

With the huge defence cuts, South Africa cannot afford to keep and operate its 24 Gripens. Nine years ago, Guy Martin of Defenceweb wrote that South Africa should sell off half its Gripens.

back to the treasury, left without money for acquiring new transports. Since funding is tight yet the need is urgent, perhaps it is time to advertise some practically new Gripens for sale: low mileage, stored in a nice dry climate and only flown on weekends.”

In a fascinating response to this proposal FlightCom’s Defence columnist and director at African Defence Review, Darren Olivier, challenged Guy Martin’s proposal. He wrote, “…selling those 12 Gripens isn't a solution.

“First, it's unlikely that SA would be able to sell them soon or for anything near their actual worth, owing to the SA-specific equipment onboard, the desire of any buyer to receive a comprehensive support and spares package that Armscor would be unable to offer and their relative newness which makes new aircraft from the manufacturer more attractive. That's ignoring any potential EUC and contractual issues.

the money having come from the SAAF through the Special Defence Account.

“Third, selling off 12 Gripens will place additional strain on the rest of the fleet, reducing their usable lifespans and potentially increasing the cost per flying hour even more.

Reduce capabilities to match funding

“Second, assuming they could be sold, it's highly unlikely that government will pass up the opportunity to redirect the money into the national fiscus to help shore up the present budget crisis. I would expect it to go the same way as the R3 billion refunded from the A400M programme, which was redirected into e-tolls and other government programmes despite some of

“Fourth, related to the above, most Gripen costs are fixed and will be no smaller with fewer aircraft as they relate to airbase maintenance, facilities, the Organisation, People, Process and Data (OPPD) structure to support the aircraft, etc. To illustrate this, the SAAF's comprehensive cost per flying hour for the Gripen is R135 000, of which R104 000 is the fixed or 'dry' cost. That's a direct reflection of the small number of flying hours allocated in the budget, as if the Gripens were flying the 3,600 hours a year envisioned in the URS the dry cost would be reduced to just R34 300 an hour, dropping the total comprehensive cost per flying hour to only R65 100. While the reducing staffing requirement may reduce the fixed costs, this would probably be offset by increased wear on the remaining aircraft.

“Fifth, selling 12 Gripens would reduce the SAAF's fighter aircraft numbers far below that recommended for a capable and deployable fighter aircraft force. It

would mean the SAAF would be incapable of a longterm Gripen deployment of more than two aircraft in future, severely constraining the SAAF's future options in the event that more funding does appear and reducing the life of its Gripens.

“Sixth, because most costs of operating fighter aircraft are fixed, selling the Gripens without getting the money back into the SAAF operational budget would not relieve the SAAF's funding crisis at all. The only way to save on operational costs is to retire entire types, as was done in the early 1990s. I know that the SAAF has come up with informal contingency plans that include retiring the Rooivalk, Hawk, Gripen and others if the funding crisis is not resolved and the government does not either reduce commitments or increase funding. Needless to say, it would take a generation to recover from something that drastic.

“In short, there are only three options open to the SAAF and government: 1) Increase funding to match commitments, 2) Reduce commitments to match

funding or 3) Reduce capabilities, intentionally or unintentionally, to match funding.

Of these 3) is the worst option and the one most likely to result in disaster and dead soldiers, yet it's the one being headed towards by default.”

It conclusion, it is fascinating how little has changed in the past nine years. The arguments made by Guy martin and Darren Olivier then are still valid today. The only change is that the problem of redundant Gripens has become even worse, with the entire Gripen fleet having been grounded by the SAAF’s inability to provide maintenance.

And thus is South Africa having to increasingly face Darren Olivier’s Option 3.

Since 2008 SAAF Gripens have flown less than 20 hours per year per aircraft

U.S. ARMY CHOOSES BELL V-280

The U.S. Army has selected Bell Textron’s V-280 Valor tiltrotor as its Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA).

THE V-280 VALOR, an innovation which was nominated last year for the coveted National Aeronautic Association Collier Trophy, is a tiltrotor aircraft with vertical lift that has more than twice the speed and range of current weapons systems, according to Bell.

The purpose-built aircraft is designed for the U.S. Army’s multi-domain operations, including special ops, attack, medevac, and other utility missions. It can go from a hover to a top speed of around 280 knots, while covering a range of up to 500 nm.

The aircraft combines the speed and range of a turboprop with an advanced agility that surpasses a traditional helicopter, all while offering improved flight performance and lifecycle sustainability, according to Bell.

The decision to replace the service’s aging fleet of UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters marks the largest rotorcraft buy for the Army in about four decades. The Sikorsky-Boeing Defiant X, a coaxial rotor aircraft, had also been a contender for the contract.

The initial $232 million contract will cover the design and manufacture of a virtual prototype of the tiltrotor aircraft, Army Brig. Gen. Robert Barrie says.

Under the contract options which is valued up to $1.3 billion, the US Army will replace about 2,000 Black Hawks, providing battlefield troop transport, as well as about 1,200 Apache attack helicopters, Defense News reported.

Bell is expected to deliver FLRAA prototypes to the Army in 2025, with the aircraft entering the fleet within five years—around the same time the Army is expected to field the separate Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft in development for scouting missions, Defense News said.

“Bell has a long history supporting Army Aviation and we are ready to equip soldiers with the speed and range they need to compete and win using the most mature, reliable, and affordable high-performance long-range assault weapon system in the world,” said Mitch Snyder, president and CEO of Bell.

The B21 Raider is said to be the World's First Sixth Generation aircraft.

GRIPEN’S MARKET FAILURE

South Africa purchased Gripen fighters in the infamous arms deal of the early 2000s. It is one of the very few nations in the world that purchased the Gripen, which is probably bad news for the aircraft’s future support and resale market demand.

Already on static display - a Saab JAS 39 Gripen in Sweden.

THE GRIPEN HAS BEEN MADE in three iterations. Generations A/B and C/D achieved some market success, but the E series has failed dismally. Saab says the main reason for the failure is not the performance of the JAS 36 Gripen, but political factors.

Writing in his blog, Maksim Panasovskyi says that Saab, “has not been able to find a single buyer for its planes for eight years. The last contract was signed in 2014 with Brazil.”

The only ‘competitive’ bid Saab won was for Brazil which signed a U$5.4 billion contract for 27 JAS 36E and eight two-seat JAS 36F Gripens.

The key problem for Saab was the fifth-generation F-35 which is steadily winning in Europe, despite the home advantage of the German Eurofighter and French Rafale. A number of states in the EU and beyond its borders have chosen the F-35 notably, Poland, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland and Canada.

Sweden was obliged to order 60 Gripens

Key buyers of the A to D series were South Africa, Thailand, Hungary and the Czech Republic. But the third generation, the E/F, failed to win almost every tender, other than that for Brazil, and its home market Sweden, which was obliged to order 60 Gripen E/Fs in 2013.

Significantly too, Poland has paired the American F-35 Lightning with the smaller South Korean FA-50 which costs less than the Gripen and requires less maintenance. Thus, the Gripen lost the battle to competitors in both the medium and light price segments.

QUOTE OF THE MONTH QOM

Writing nine years ago about South Africa’s Gripen fleet, FlightCom defence columnist Darren Olivier provided the cost per hour of Gripen flying. Given inflation over the past nine years, this cost may well have doubled:

“The SAAF's cost per flying hour for the Gripen is R135 000, of which R104 000 is the fixed or 'dry' cost.”

Darren Olivier

GETTING SHOT AT IN SOMALIA PART 2

Laura McDermid continues her stories of Iris McCallum’s flying exploits.

In Part 1, Iris recounts how she kept busy flying the Muraa herb into Somalia, and then people out in a Cessna T310R

WE NEVER TOOK PASSENGERS

illegally. We always filled in a passenger manifest including pilot details, aircraft registration, and details of the passengers, including their passport numbers. Once Hussein disappeared with their passports, ground staff would fetch the passengers and manage the rest of the process. A copy of the stamped manifest would then be kept on file.

On this day, Hussein returned with two passengers. One of them was seated on the floor in the back, whilst the other took up the seat next to me. Once settled, I started the engines and taxied with the main door slightly ajar, assisted by the passenger sitting in the co-pilot seat, so that we could get some fresh air into the cabin.

pilot of 5Y-TNT the other.

I called on the open frequency 118.20, advising that I was back-tracking on Runway 22. Then above the noise of the engines, I could hear what sounded like hail on a tin roof.

enough power to climb out of tight runways.

“What the hell?” I looked at the instrument panel, T’s & P’s were good, revs were fine…..

Objects wobbled in and out of focus at the threshold of Runway 04. As they drew closer I saw that there were at least five para-military ‘Technical’ Land Cruisers carrying .50 calibre machine guns.

There were no clouds, and the sun scorched the runway making heat waves rise from it like flames without colour. Two other aircraft had just taken off ahead of me from Runway 22, Gulu being one and the

“SHUT THE DOOR!” I yelled at the Somali passenger, leaning across him and pushing the handle forward to the locked position.

My heart was hammering so loudly that the gunfire was quiet in comparison.

I knew that to continue taking off on 22 would put me directly in the line of fire and that we would most likely be shot up badly. I had to decide. We were about two-thirds down the runway. I calculated that there was enough length to take off on runway 040.

We would outrun the bastards!

Fortunately the twin engines made turning a breeze,

and I expedited a perfect 180 degree turn.

The tanks were full, and everything was already set for takeoff. I open the throttles fully and the aircraft surged forward – and directly away from the gunmen behind us.

I waited until I could feel her wanting to fly and gently lifted the nose and let her climb, very shallowly to tree-

The Miraa (khat) on these pick-up trucks is Kenya's "Green Gold".

A typical Somali "Technical" armed Landcruiser.

PILOTS

top height before selecting flaps and gear up.

Even fully laden, the 310R has a strong climb gradient and has enough power to climb out of tight runways.

I levelled out and set the engines to max continuous power. I was getting the hell out of there as fast as I could. I maintained the heading of 040, not veering off this direction for at least ten minutes, then turned slowly, heading out towards the ocean. Once over the waves, and far enough away from the coastline, I turned right again and began a climb to FL120, setting course for home.

I glanced around. This was the first chance I had to look at my Somali passengers. Both had massive grins on their faces, showing teeth as white as sun-cured bone. We gave each other the thumbs up and began laughing. I laughed so hard that I battled to see through the stream of tears that spilled from my eyes.

“Gentleman, you may now change your underwear.” I said in broken Arabic which elicited another round of raucous laughter.

I landed back at Wilson at 09h30Z, exactly 5 hours after my departure that morning.

Baledogle Military Airfield.

Back at the office, I found out that the other C310R, 5Y-TNT, had taken a couple of hits to the fuselage, and that it had to fly back on one engine. Luckily nobody was injured.

A bit later we heard that the attack at the airfield was initiated by the ex-Somali president, Said Barre’s people. These were random attacks, there was no logical reason for them. We were not deliberate targets, we just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Whilst refuelling our aircraft, Gulu called me over to look at 5Y-BAF.

“Cuddles, I couldn’t make out why my left wing is leaking fuel. It turns out we took a hit.”

Sure enough, plumb in the middle of the left wing was a beautiful, perfect little mushroom shape in the metal, out of which fuel was streaming.

Aslam had given us a few days of “shell-shock” leave. I spent the next seven days at home writing letters and spending time with my beloved Great Danes.

I’d have to prepare myself for verbal flak from concerned friends and family once they read the letters. They will advise yet again that it was time for me to hang up my pilot’s cap and pursue a line of work less dangerous.

Had I followed the other two aeroplanes that morning, I believe I would’ve been shot out of the sky.

Critical decisions in the heat of the moment determine the difference between life and death.

I was spared that day, which meant that I would continue to fly to the best of my abilities until such time that I am no longer able or no longer willing.

Later the airlines also climbed into the Miraa trade.

BY JOHN BASSI

STICK TO THE RULES PART 1

Stick to the rules, try listen to your gut, follow the POH, be ready

DEHORNING RHINOS is not a solution to the rampant poaching that feeds the high demand for rhino horns created by spiritual beliefs, the practice of traditional medicine and ornamental uses. But it does help buy time and protect rhinos from poachers while conservationists and law enforcement bolster and develop more lasting solutions.

With no horns present, there is reduced reason for wildlife criminals to target and kill rhinos, so dehorning can be an effective, temporary safeguard against poaching. It causes no pain to the rhino, and the horns do grow back, just like our own hair or fingernails.

Before 6.00 every morning I walk towards the dew saturated helicopter, savouring the myriad of chirps, screeches and whistles from hundreds of birds calling the dawn chorus. Breathing in the aromas from the potato bush and flowering acacias, the calm belies the reality awaiting.

Dappled sunrays mingled with thin wisps of mist create a softening effect over the surrounding bush. Bush that is filled with beauty and horror.

In preparation for the unknown day ahead this ritual is performed, making myself and the helicopter airworthy. This is when the saying, “all dressed up with nowhere to go applies”, as it is now up to the fixed wing pilot to find us a rhino.

The A22 Foxbat has proven itself beyond question as the ideal spotter plane. With her 5 hour endurance burning only 17 litres mogas per hour and ability to penetrate wind safely, the Foxbat cruises so quietly over the bush that there is zero disturbance to the easily spooked rhino.

side

When the A22 pilot locates rhino that require dehorning, he sends us a GPS coordinate and brief description of the age, sex and group structure.

Everything is ready in the helicopter and within 2 minutes we lift. The Foxbat may lurk in the vicinity of the rhino until we have a visual, or move off to find more, but he is always ready to return and back us up as eyes, should the rhino group split up. This procedure not only saves a fortune in helicopter flying time, but is really efficient in finding animals as well as being ready to assist the helicopter when thing go pear shaped.

I try to keep the rhino on my

for the unexpected…and pray.

We fly four up, myself the driver, then next to me in front, a ranger, and in the back on the right side, our veterinarian. Next to the vet on the left is a technician. Also In the back and packed neatly into packs between the vet and tech is the essential equipment needed by the vet. The boot of the helicopter contains the electric chainsaw and grinder with spare batteries, cooler box for the blood samples and all the working equipment needed at the actual rhino. Each of us knows exactly our role, we banter and joke while waiting and even between operations, but understand each other so well that during work, it is silence. We have each-others’ backs.

We wait, semi-relaxed for the “ping”, sounding that a message has arrived, and then its Go.

There is a special calmness among us with that first early morning lift. Usually we are all silent, entranced in our own deep thoughts during the ferry to position. Inbound I break the silence with a heads up, “Ok we are 2 miles out to the GPS, eyes out.”

Mostly we find the rhino exactly at the co-ordinate, sometimes though, they have moved off in the 20 minutes delay, in which case I fly an ever widening 360 degree orbit until the 10 kms radius. If there is still no visual, we call back the A22 and search for a reasonable time period before calling it off. Regardless of finding the animal or not, once completed, we look for a nice spot with a view and stand by in the bush waiting for the next call. Each day we repeat this, and only stop working when the ambient temperature is too high and will jeopardise the rhinos’ safety from over-heating whilst immobilised.

“HFD, SAM do you copy?”

“Standing by.”

“I have 2 E class and 1 F class bull white, can I send loc?”

I plug the numbers into the GPS as the turbine spools up. After checking that everyone is secure, we lift

Our full team on a rhino dehorning operation. To be more efficient we had two vet teams, a mobile ground crew and our A22 Foxbat spotter.

I set up for a smooth approach into wind

up over the trees aiming for the A22 which is orbiting 20 minutes away.

“SAM, HFD, we have visual, thanks. We going for the two E’s first, can you keep eyes on the F please?”

I come down low enough and do a single pass, during which time we assess the age, sex, size and condition of the two adult rhino, necessary for the correct drug dosage in the dart, then, satisfied, climb to 1000 feet agl and move away so as to not cause the rhino to run. Flying a slow orbit, I try to keep the rhino on my side and never take eyes off, not even for a second, unless I am certain another crew member has visual. You cannot imagine how quickly you can lose a rhino in the bushes and gullies.

“Ok John, I’m ready. Checking harness secure,” the vet calls out.

I start my decent and set up for a smooth approach into wind, aiming to reach the rear rhino at a ground speed exactly equal to the galloping rhino.

To be continued.....

Processing a rhino in nice open country is a rare luxury.

Dehorning a rhino using a chainsaw, cutting above the growth point.

THE LAST 747 TO BE BUILT

55 years ago, in 1968, the first Boeing 747 was rolled out of the Everett, Washington factory. The last 747, a 747-8F Freighter, will be delivered to air cargo operator Atlas Air in early 2023.

WITH 1,574 UNITS PRODUCED, the 747 was the most popular wide-body aircraft to be manufactured, until the title was claimed by the Boeing 777.

With four engined aircraft having been surpassed in economy by the big twin engine aircraft, in total, Boeing managed to sell 200 747-8, including cargoonly versions, delivering 153 aircraft as of October 31, 2022, according to Boeing’s Orders and Deliveries website.

The 747-8 Freighter was designed with a 975,000 lb (442 t) maximum take-off weight with a payload capability of 308,000 lb (140 t) and a range of 4,390 nmi (8,130 km). Four extra pallet spaces were created

on the main deck, with either two extra containers and two extra pallets, or three extra pallets, on the lower deck.

The penultimate 747 was delivered to Atlas Air on November 22, 2022. Atlas Air signed an agreement with Boeing for the last four 747s to be produced in January 2021, finalising the customer list for the 7478F and in turn, the last Queen of The Skies.

The very first Boeing 747 (747-100) is now on display at Seattle's Museum of Flight located at the southern end of King County International Airport in the city of Tukwila, immediately south of Seattle.

The first 747 was rolled out 55 years ago.

The last 747 to be built is scheduled for delivery to Atlas Air in early 2023.

THE STATE OF AFRICAN AIRLINES

African airlines have lagged the world in their recovery after Covid.

IATA’S REGIONAL VICE-PRESIDENT for Africa and Middle East (AME), Kamil AlAwadhi, has provided a succinct overview of the state of the African airline industry, and its slow recovery from the Covid years.

In a speech to the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) in Dakar in December, Al-Awadhi said,. “As we continually demonstrate, our industry is resilient; and we also know that we can do much more together to make it even more so.”

The losses suffered by African airlines were small compared to the rest of the world. Al-Awadhi pointed out that, “Last year, airlines worldwide lost a combined $42 billion. Africa’s airlines are on track to post a combined $638 million loss this year, with demand still 32.3% lower than 2019 and capacity 31.1% off the 2019 high-tide.”

Looking ahead to pending results he said that “IATA’s outlook sees the global loss reduced to $6.9 billion for 2022 and, any other shocks notwithstanding, a return to industry-wide profit in 2023 where we forecast a $4.7 billion profit on $779 billion worth of revenues.

“Nevertheless, in the face of macro-economic headwinds and the increased vulnerability of several African economies, the continent’s airlines should reduce these losses by about two-thirds, falling to $213 million, next year. We see this being driven by a 27.4% rebound in passenger traffic and capacity increasing by 21.9%. By the time we gather for the 2023 AFRAA assembly, traffic should have recovered to 86% of pre-COVID levels.”

Al-Awadhi noted; “this is a forecast for the entire continent, but we know each sub-region moves at its own pace, reflecting its unique advantages and obstacles. Some have seen demand return faster than others.”

African carriers failing to operate routes on which they are the sole designated airline

Cargo has been the lifeline for Ethiopian airlines which consolidated its position as by far Africa’s largest carrier. African airlines are experiencing unprecedented load factors, and many are operating at, or near to, maximum capacity.

However, there are some key regional challenges. Al-Awadhi says, “cargo markets, which achieved unprecedented highs during COVID, will come under increased pressure in 2023. IATA is anticipating volumes to fall to 57.7 million tonnes (from a 65 million tonne peak in 2021), a $52 billion slide in revenues, and yields contracting by 22.6%, as passenger markets recover and belly space on passenger jets once again fills up. In June cargo demand was 111.7% higher than 2019 levels., but it will end the year at 98.4% of those levels. As with most markets, the cargo picture in Africa has reversed. Our latest analysis points to a deepening year-on-year contraction which was down to -8.3%. in October.”

Reiterating IATA’s concerns about structural African industry problems – he said that IATA is focussing on

four challenges: 1. Connectivity, 2. Market access and regulatory reform. 3. Taxes, charges and rising costs. 4. Environmental sustainability and safety.

In terms of air connectivity, Africa is one of the most populated places on Earth, yet it accounts for just 1,9% of global passenger and cargo traffic, thanks largely to the dearth of intra-African connectivity and barriers to market access. The African share of the world’s aviation market has now dropped below 2%, despite the continent having around 20% of the world’s population.

Some notable industry development initiatives are underway. “The latest AFCAC Pilot Implementation Programme (PIP) is a welcome initiative and, if it enjoys sufficient buy-in and fair-play between its 17 participating countries, then it should be a powerful demonstration to the continent’s other 38 nations of the commercial, economic and social benefits that are waiting,” Al Awadhi says.

The lack of ‘open skies’ liberalisation in Africa

IATA's Kamil Al-Awadhi signs a safety MoU with SACAA Director Ms Poppy Khoza.

continues to be central IATA theme. “… let us not kid ourselves and get carried away patting ourselves on our backs. The PIP is a step towards the Single Africa Air Transport Market. Fifth freedom traffic rights are the most visible and attractive component of SAATM, but the devil is in the detail. Not only do we require a common understanding of what these market freedoms are, but also of how they are to be applied and administered. It requires just as much commitment to removing other protectionist instruments such as inconsistent and differential charges, as well as administrative obstacles, that run counter to the spirit and intentions of SAATM,” he says.

“If we zoom out and consider inter-continental markets, it is distressing to see certain African carriers failing to operate key routes on which they are the sole designated airline for their countries. Despite the reciprocal countries carriers expanding their operations, they can only do so up to the limits set out in the bilaterals. This is leaving many markets underserved. By choking capacity in this way, commercial opportunities are being squandered and slowing the recovery of lucrative long-haul foreign source-markets for tourism and trade. In turn, this is delaying the delivery of socio-economic benefits and attainment of many of the UN Sustainable Development Goals in

the region.

“The solution is not necessarily to start or prop-up unviable airlines. It is to reform the current regulatory regime and replace it with one that is fit for purpose.”

Focussing on the other key constraint of poor infrastructure and the unhealthy monopoly of many airports, Al-Awadhi said, “Another threat to Africa’s traffic recovery and future growth is poor or inadequate infrastructure, resulting in sub-standard passenger service. “Some of Africa’s largest airports have recently completed, or are currently undertaking, major expansion programmes, many of them are positive.

“However, from the airlines’ perspective, such capex projects should be concluded collaboratively between airports and airlines. They require demonstrated costbenefit analyses and a robust interrogation of asset efficiencies, as these infrastructure plans will impact on future user-charges. Regulation is also needed to prevent abuse of market power and to ensure that providers’ capacity plans are aligned with market realities.”

In safety, Africa had a good year.

“Every member of the air transport value chain experienced pain during the pandemic. But now is also not the right time to be increasing levies, hiking carbon taxes or introducing new taxes on air transport, trade or tourism. We are mutually co-dependent on each other. Every increase deters increasingly cost-sensitive customers, resulting in fewer travellers and even less revenue, not just for airlines, but for all stakeholders across the value chain, including: airports, ground handlers, suppliers and air navigation services. Ultimately, they set back economic growth and curtail opportunities to create and support jobs and livelihoods.

The high taxes and charges and costs imposed on

African airlines are another key constraint. The high price of oil is a particular concern. “Although oil prices have retreated from mid-year peaks, the average price of jet fuel so far this year [2022] has been US$138.8 a barrel. This means airlines will collectively pay an extra US$222 billion for fuel this year compared with 2021. Fuel accounts for 30% of airline costs.

“Most disconcerting is the widening gap, or crack, between the price of crude and jet fuel. Historically this held at about US$20 a barrel, but since this February it has opened up to around US$45, indicating how refiners and suppliers are holding back supplies to artificially keep prices high.”

The lack of buy-in to SAATM remains a key challenge.

Regarding costs, Al-Awadhi praised the South African model. “…. South Africa, where the Government, through the regulatory process, brings together aviation stakeholders for open and transparent consultations when setting aeronautical user charges, both for ATNS and ACSA. We encourage more governments in the Africa region to follow this example on how to engage users for an effective consultation by implementing robust economic regulations on aviation, with an independent arbitrator.”

Underlining IATA and ICAO’s environmental focus, Al-Awadhi stated, “There should be no doubt that climate change is real and represents our biggest and most fundamental challenge. We applaud the unanimous adoption of a Long-Term Aspirational Goal to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, at the recently-held ICAO assembly. This is a significant moment as it compels governments and the aviation industry to rapidly implement far stronger, deeper and greater decarbonisation initiatives, including increasing production of Sustainable Aviation Fuels. SAF production is moving in the right direction and should reach at least 300 million litres by the end of this year – that’s a 200% increase on 2021 production.

“We need to hold governments accountable for their CORSIA commitments. Too many states are introducing aviation carbon taxes that could undermine CORSIA. The lower CORSIA baseline will already place a significantly greater cost burden on airlines. It is critical that governments do not chip away at the cement which binds CORSIA, especially as they have already agreed to it as the only economic measure to manage the carbon footprint of international aviation.”

Africa has had an excellent year in terms of safety. “In 2021, African airlines on the IOSA registry had zero accidents, [however] incidents across Africa by regional and global operators continue to be experienced.

reporting and investigation of incidents and accidents.

Adopting a more aggressive approach to addressing the highest recurring operational risks.

Prioritising Safety data and information exchange by all stakeholders is a must, not a nice to have, in order to build an accurate picture across the continent.

Promoting the understanding of the critical importance of aeronautical information (NOTAM/AIP etc) to aviation safety, addressing as priority the regional deficiencies, with a clear commitment to improve by all States and stakeholders.

Focusing on operational resilience; the region is fraught with disruption to flight operations bringing with it operational risk. It is essential we review the processes for Contingency Coordination for the region, not only to ensure minimum operational disruption, but to ensure at no point there is any degradation to service provision or safety.”

Concluding, Al-Awadhi said, “We are in recovery mode, but we could be tripped up. Proper planning, coordination and the provision of adequate staff and appropriate resources by airports, ANSPs and other service providers are crucial. Aviation and tourism are not to be treated as easy targets for collecting taxes and charges without reinvesting in improved infrastructure, training or service delivery. Some of the most expensive airports in Africa are also ones with the lowest service levels and infrastructure. This disparity between cost and quality is unacceptable.

“Regrettably the region’s accident rate remains the highest. This should serve as sharp reminders that we need to work together towards:

Enhanced safety oversight particularly in the areas of

“Connectivity is precious. The pandemic demonstrated that everybody suffers when aviation stops. It also dispelled the myth that flying only benefits the rich. A financially viable air transport sector, in a fit-forpurpose and enabling regulatory environment supports jobs, promotes transformation and will be a driving force for Africa’s economic recovery and future growth. And finally, safety is paramount and the focus on this must be unwavering,” Al-Awadhi concluded.

Guy Leitch

AIRLINK CEO RODGER FOSTER FACE TO FACE

GL: Airlink has shown itself to be exceptionally resilient in emerging from the Covid pandemic in good shape and is now growing strongly. To what do you attribute this success?

RF: I think the key is that we are agile. During Covid we were determined to survive and so we took stock of the pandemic, which we recognised as a dynamic uncertainty. We had to think on our feet, constantly adapting all the way through it. We had to take advantage of every opportunity that we could, and we had to do it all well. We had to go back to basics and rebuild the business from first origins.

As we came out of the lockdown we restored our network route by route. We worked with the regulators and the authorities in neighbouring countries like Namibia and we were able to quickly mobilise air access as it became available through easing of the lock-down.

And let’s not forget that the industry had its problems before Covid. Arguably, there was too much capacity. The fares that had been achieved before Covid were not adequate to cover even the direct variable costs across the industry. What Covid did is it created a watershed that separated the survivors from those who didn't.

GL: Many airlines are now battling with staff shortages.

The most important element of our survival strategy was that we took care of our staff in whichever way we possibly could. Fortunately, we were able to retain all our staff. Having no one lose their job has created unity, a sense of belonging, and a common vision throughout the organisation.

GL: The banks must now be even more cautious of airlines. How have you managed to finance your rapid growth?

We have never had a shortage of cash, thanks to our austerity plan, and we have been able to use that cash wisely, as best we could in rebuilding the business.

GL: How have you managed the demands of growth for your rapid post-Covid expansion?

Right now we are at approximately 150% of where we were pre-Covid. Although we have added capacity back into the system, we haven't added it irresponsibly. We add capacity as the market demands and so have

Guy Leitch asks Airlink CEO Rodger Foster about Airlink’s great bounce back since Covid-19.

Airlink CEO Rodger Foster with one of his 27 E-jets. Image Garth Calitz.

created a better balance between supply and demand than what there was pre-Covid.

GL: You have been operating a Boeing 737-300, which is now in Airlink colours – is this the start of a new era? Now that you operating Joburg-Cape Town, are you going to have to move up to narrow bodies in your owned fleet?

The Boeing 737 is a short term ACMI wet lease that we have been operating for at least the past nine months. When we renewed the short lease in September for a year we got them to change the livery.

Re-up-gauging: the first step is our Embraer 195 initiative. The EMB195 has more or less the same operating costs as a 190 on a trip cost basis. But when you divide the number of seats into the costs, the 195 gives slightly better operating economics. However, we are naturally not quite on par with the lowcost carriers, so eventually we will have to up-gauge. I can't tell you exactly how and when that will materialise. It will be when we realise that we do not yet have adequate presence on the trunk markets – which are very much part of a long-term network plans.

GL: You have now succeeded, seemingly against all odds, of recovering your rights to operate to Madagascar. That must have taken much behind the scenes negotiation. How did you do it?

We have been in continual engagement with all the key role-players, especially those in Madagascar, such as their CAA and Department of Transport. At the same time, we engaged all the help we could from our side – from our SACAA, the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) and the Department of Transport.

But what I think finally persuaded the Madagascans

was economic reality. The Madagascan Tourist Authority found that inbound tourists for December 2022 were at just 60% of 2019 levels – despite a much stronger world-wide recovery. They realised that the loss of air connectivity was having a direct impact on their all-important tourism revenue, not to mention all the many other reasons people travel to South Africa, such as for: schooling, medical tourism, shopping, visiting friends and relatives and of course for leisure tourism.

In the end, economics triumphed, so we will restart at the beginning of February with one flight per week –increasing to daily. We aim to restart operations to Nosy Be as soon as we are able. We also have significant charter and contract flight operations in Madagascar. We are therefore getting back into Madagascan operations holistically, so we are studying the timeline of when people book for flights – especially for peak periods such as school holidays.

The first Boeing 737 in Airlink livery.

GL: What is your biggest single constraint to growth?

We have to re-establish equity as our balance sheet is going to be a constraint. As a business you can have agility and vision, and expand your horizons and increase your footprint, but you can't do any of those without equity. If you want to raise debt, then you have to keep your debt-equity ratio within your financial covenant terms. So, in the short term, the big constraint is going to be the balance sheet, but we can see ways in which, if we carry on doing what we are doing at the moment, the balance sheet will be restored in due course.

that we have the best OTP. It is a key objective for us as many of our flights are feeder routes to the international carriers and especially our codeshares partners.

GL: Congratulations on once again winning the ACSA On Time Performance award.

Thank you. We achieved 95.35%. Importantly, we were consistent in that we managed better than 95% at all nine ACSA airports. To do this requires a huge team effort across all parts of the company’s operations. We have a task team whose job it is specifically to ensure

GL: What are your plans for further expansion into Africa? You have recently been awarded a number of new routes, so you seem to have a friendly International Air Services Licensing Council.

We have been awarded additional traffic rights which we applied for as long ago as September 2020. We also have air traffic rights which we haven't yet used which we have had for quite some time, and we will be exploring those traffic routes imminently.

It is not our style to publicise those plans at this moment. We are still working on the letters of designation through the diplomatic channels where a Note Verbale has been exchanged. Also, the foreign operator's permits have been applied for. But in due course we will make announcements as to where we are next going to expand our tentacles within the region.

As a pilot, Airlink CEO Rodger Foster understands the needs of his pilots better than most airline CEOs.

SAAF PRESTIGE WEEK

THE SOUTH AFRICAN Air Force celebrated “Prestige Week” in Pretoria which ended with a flying day on Saturday 28 January with the SAAF museum at Swartkop Air Force Base.

This Prestige event is to celebrate successes during the past year and also to celebrate the birthday of the

SAAF, which will be 103 years old in 2023.

Our roving photographer Trevor Cohen captured a selection of images from the flying display.

TREVOR COHEN

A mix of museum helicopters flying for the SAAF "Presitige Day" 103rd birthday celebration.

The usual 5-ship Silver Falcons was missing their No 1 aircraft.

The Rooivalk made a welcome appearance.

In the absence of an airworthy Gripen, the

Hawk Mk120 was put through its paces.

The 3-ship Hawk display from 85 Combat Flying School, Makhado.

A time warp - the museum choppers pass the Voortrekker Monument.

Helicopters dominated the fly-past - here two SAAF A109LUHs fly over.

BACKPAGE DIR ECT ORY

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Money Aviation

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North East Avionics

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Plane Maintenance Facility Johan 083 300 3619 pmf@myconnection.co.za

Precision Aviation Services

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Rainbow SkyReach (Pty) Ltd

Mike Gill 011 817 2298 Mike@fly-skyreach.com www.fly-skyreach.com

Rand Airport

Stuart Coetzee 011 827 8884 stuart@randairport.co.za www.randairport.co.za

Robin Coss Aviation Robin Coss 021 934 7498 info@cossaviation.com www.cossaviation.co.za

SAA Technical (SOC) Ltd

SAAT Marketing 011 978 9993 satmarketing@flysaa.com www.flysaa.com/technical

SABRE Aircraft Richard Stubbs 083 655 0355 richardstubbs@mweb.co.za www.aircraftafrica.co.za

SA Mooney Patrick Hanly 082 565 8864 samooney@border.co.za www.samooney.co.za

Savannah Helicopters De 082Jager 444 1138 / 044 873 3288 dejager@savannahhelicopters.co.za www.savannahhelicopters.co.za

Scenic Air Christa van Wyk +264 612 492 68 windhoek@scenic-air.com www.scenic-air.com

Sheltam Aviation Durban

Susan Ryan 083 505 4882 susanryan@sheltam.com www.sheltamaviation.com

Sheltam Aviation PE Brendan Booker 082 497 6565 brendanb@sheltam.com www.sheltamaviation.com

Sky-Tech Heinz Van Staden 082 720 5210 sky-tech@telkomsa.net www.sky-tech.za.com

Sling Aircraft Kim Bell-Cross 011 948 9898 sales@airplanefactory.co.za www.airplanefactory.co.za

Solenta Aviation (Pty Ltd) Paul Hurst 011 707 4000 info@solenta.com www.solenta.com

Southern Energy Company (Pty) Ltd

Elke Bertram +264 8114 29958 johnnym@sec.com.na www.sec.com.na

Southern Rotorcraft cc Mr Reg Denysschen Tel no: 0219350980 sasales@rotors-r-us.com www.rotors-r-us.com

Starlite Aero Sales

Klara Fouché +27 83 324 8530 / +27 31 571 6600 klaraf@starliteaviation.com www.starliteaviation.com

Starlite Aviation Operations

Trisha Andhee +27 82 660 3018/ +27 31 571 6600 trishaa@starliteaviation.com www.starliteaviation.com

Starlite Aviation Training Academy

Durban: +27 31 571 6600 Mossel Bay: +27 44 692 0006 train@starliteaviation.com www.starliteaviation.com

Status Aviation (Pty) Ltd

Richard Donian 074 587 5978 / 086 673 5266 info@statusaviation.co.za www.statusaviation.co.za

Superior Pilot Services

Liana Jansen van 0118050605/2247Rensburg info@superiorair.co.za www.superiorair.co.za

The Copter Shop Bill Olmsted 082 454 8555 execheli@iafrica.com www.execheli.wixsite.com/the-coptershop-sa

Titan Helicopter Group 044 878 0453 info@titanhelicopters.com www.titanhelicopters.com

TPSC

Dennis Byrne 011 701 3210 turboprop@wol.co.za

Trio Helicopters & Aviation cc CR Botha or FJ Grobbelaar 011 659 1022 stoffel@trioavi.co.za/frans@trioavi.co.za www.trioavi.co.za

Tshukudu Trailers

Pieter Visser 083 512 2342 deb@tshukudutrailers.co.za www.tshukudutrailers.co.za

U Fly Training Academy

Nikola Puhaca 011 824 0680 ufly@telkomsa.net www.uflyacademy.co.za

United Charter cc Jonathan Wolpe 083 270 8886 jonathan.wolpe@unitedcharter.co.za www.unitedcharter.co.za

United Flight Support Clinton Moodley/Jonathan Wolpe 076 813 7754 / 011 788 0813 ops@unitedflightsupported.com www.unitedflightsupport.com

Unique Air Charter Nico Pienaar 082 444 7994 nico@uniqueair.co.za www.uniqueair.co.za

Unique Flight Academy

Nico Pienaar 082 444 7994 nico@uniqueair.co.za www.uniqueair.co.za

Van Zyl Aviation Services Colette van Zyl 012 997 6714 admin@vanzylaviationco.za www.vanzylaviation.co.za

Vector Aerospace

Jeff Poirier +902 888 1808 jeff.poirier@vectoraerospace.com www.vectoraerospace.com

Velocity Aviation Collin Pearson 011 659 2306 / 011 659 2334 collin@velocityaviation.co.za www.velocityaviation.co.za

Villa San Giovanni Luca Maiorana 012 111 8888 info@vsg.co.za www.vsg.co.za

Vortx Aviation Bredell Roux 072 480 0359 info@vortx.co.za www.vortxaviation.com

Wanafly Adrian Barry 082 493 9101 adrian@wanafly.net www.wanafly.co.za

Windhoek Flight Training Centre Thinus Dreyer 0026 40 811284 180 pilots@flywftc.com www.flywftc.com

Wings n Things Wendy Thatcher 011 701 3209 wendy@wingsnthings.co.za www.wingsnthings.co.za

Witbank Flight School Andre De Villiers 083 604 1718 andredv@lantic.net www.waaflyingclub.co.za

Wonderboom Airport Peet van Rensburg 012 567 1188/9 peet@wonderboomairport.co.za www.wonderboomairport.co.za

Zandspruit Bush & Aero Estate Martin Den Dunnen 082 449 8895 martin@zandspruit.co.za www.zandspruit.co.za

Zebula Golf Estate & SPA Reservations 014 734 7700 reception@zebula.co.za www.zebula.co.za