The Resilient City - Manchester

THE RESILIENT CITY C L I M AT E E M E R G E N C Y & A D A P TAT I O N

M A N C H E S T E R

Sustainability in Contemporary Cities

Sam Morman

Abstract The sustainable development of cities around the world is imperative for future generations to prosper. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development outlines 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s) and 169 targets, these provide a framework for a global initiative regarding sustainability. They are described as “integrated and indivisible and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development: the economic, social and environmental (United Nations, 2015).”

This report breaks down the theme of ‘The Resilient City and the Climate Emergency and Adaptation’ as a method of achieving sustainability for cities. The effects of climate change are an ever-growing threat to our society, creating issues such as rising global temperatures, an increasing impact of natural disasters and extreme weather conditions. There is a global pursuit to keep the temperature rise below 2 degrees celcius to prevent further damage to our ecosystems. Initiatives have currently been put in place such as the 2015 Paris Agreement, a legally binding global framework adopted by 196 parties at COP 21. With over half of the world’s population living in cities, they play a vital role in contributing to and addressing these threats. The UN Habitat states “cities consume 78 per cent of the world’s energy and produce more than 60 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions (United Nations, 2022).” This report uses a critical evaluation framework to assess the success of the City of Manchester cities climate resilience roadmap as part of their sustainable development targets.

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Figure 1. Sustainable Vision (UN, 2021)

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Contents 01

Introduction 1.0 Sustainable Development ............................................................. 6 1.1 What is Resilience? ........................................................................ 6 1.2 Climate Change in Cities .............................................................. 8 1.3 Climate Resilience .......................................................................... 8 1.4 Social Resilience ............................................................................ 8 1.5 Developing Resilience ................................................................... 9 1.6 Resilience in the Context of Wider Themes ....................................9

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Developing a Framework 2.0 What is a Framework ................................................................... 10 2.01 Why is it Useful? ..............................................................................

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2.02 Existing Frameworks .........................................................................

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2.1 Sustainable Development Goals ................................................. 12 2.2 OECD ........................................................................................... 14 2.3 Cities Resilience Index .................................................................. 16 2.4 Making Cities Resilient ................................................................. 18

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Critical Evaluation Framework 3.0 Applying a Framework ................................................................. 20 3.1 Framework .................................................................................... 21

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Introduction to Manchester 4.0 Background .................................................................................. 22 4.1 Shocks and Stresses ..................................................................... 22 4.2 Steps Towards Resilience ..............................................................24

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Manchester’s Roadmaps 5.0 Selected Roadmaps ..................................................................... 26 5.1 Manchester Climate Change Framework 2020-25.........................27 5.2 Manchester Climate Risk: A Framework for Understanding Hazards & Vulnerability ................. 28 5.3 Greater Manchester Resilience Strategy 2020-2030 .................... 30

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Critical Evaluation 6.0 Method ......................................................................................... 33 6.1 Disaster Resilience ........................................................................ 34 6.2 Sustainable Economy ................................................................... 35 6.3 Community ....................................................................................36 6.4 Health and Wellbeing ....................................................................37 6.5 Strong Ecosystems ....................................................................... 38 6.6 Infrastructure Resilience ............................................................... 39 6.7 Policy .............................................................................................40 6.8 Strategy ..........................................................................................41

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Framework Evaluation 7.0 Radar Analysis .............................................................................. 42

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Conclusion

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References

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Figures

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Tables

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01 Introduction The way cities build their resilience is a fundamental part of achieving the 17 SDG’s. The city of Manchester will be used as a case study critically assessing their current roadmap towards becoming a leading climate resilient city. The report will assess the city’s successes and failures using a critical evaluation framework developed from a range of accredited sources.

1.0 Sustainable Development

The UN Brundtland Commission breaks the term ‘sustainable development’ down to its fundamental objective; “Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (UN, 1987, p.16).” The report further details the inter-dependency of different dimensions. “The concept of sustainable development does imply limits-not absolute limits but limitations imposed by the present state of technology and social organization on environmental resources and by the ability of the biosphere to absorb the effects of human activities (UN, 1987, p.16).” When discussing the theme of the climate emergency and adaptation, reducing the impact our cities have on the environment is essential.

The sustainable development of any city can be measured by a series of indicators. They often combine global, national and local initiatives. These initiatives are put in place by a range of stakeholders with differing objectives.

(Kates W, 2005) There is an overarching ambition for sustainable devel-

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opment outlined by the UN within the SDG’s, however local authorities will have specific goals that place more focus on particular SDG’s as a response to their distinct threats.

1.1 What is Resilience?

Resilience can be defined in a number of ways. Figure 2 demonstrates a series of definitions from recognised organisations gathered by OECD. The common theme is the capacity of the elements that make up a city to withstand shocks and stresses and adapt to overcome them.

Key Terms for when discussing resilience; Shocks - Sudden events that creates problems for the city such as fires, flooding, disease or infrastructure failures.

Stresses - Issues that create strain on a city over a long period, often increasing the impact of acute shocks. Examples include pollution, high unemployment, high crime rates and poor transportation systems.

(IGC, 2018) The four dimensions of sustainable development similarly apply to resilience.

A cities resilience can be measured by the way in which social, economic, environmental and institutional shocks and stresses are prepared for, absorbed, adapted to and learned from, informing the future development of plans (OECD, 2018).

Un-Habitat

Resilience refers to the ability of any urban system to withstand and to recover quickly from multiple shocks and stresses and maintain continuity of service.

International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI)

A city that is prepared to absorb and recover from any shock or stress while maintaining its es-

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)

The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accomodate,

Rockefeller Foundation

sential functions, structures and identity as well as adapting and thriving in the face of continual change. Building resilience requires identifying and assessing hazard risks, reducing vulnerability and exposure, and lastly, increasing resistance, adaptive capactiy and emergency preparedness.

adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management.

Resilience is the capactiy of individuals, communities and systems to survive, adapt and grow in the face of stress and shocks, and even transform when conditions require it.

Resilientcity.Org

A resilient city is one that has developed capacities to help absorb future shocks and stresses to its social, economic and technical systems and infrastructure so as to still be able to maintain essentially the same functions, structures, systems and indentity.

100 Resilient Cities

Urban resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses and sytems within a city to survive, adapt and grow regardless of what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience.

Resilient Europe

Urban resilience is the capacity of urban systems, communities, individuals, organisations and businesses to recover, maintain their function and thrive in the aftermath of a shock or stress, regardless its impact, frequency or magnitude.

Table 1. Definitions of Resilience. (OECD, 2018)

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1.2 Climate Change in Cities

The impacts of climate change are enhanced within cities due to their population density, intensity of activity and increased temperatures due to the built surfaces which absorb heat. The effects of urbanization on the environment with increased consumption and waste, green house gas emissions and industrialisation, forms part of a continuum where the environmental impact of our actions pose increasing threats to the resilience of our societies.

Climate changes as a result have several impacts such as increasing global temperatures, rising sea levels and more frequent extreme weather events.

These types of issues have a ripple effect creating food and water shortages, damages to our ecosystems subsequently intensifying environmental degradation (Cheshmehzangi and Dawodu, 2019).

1.3 Climate Resilience

“Climate resilient cities have the capability to reduce and manage the negative impacts of climate change because these cities have planned and factored these changes in their development goals and planning (Teri, 2022)” Climate resilience has a profound impact on social, environmental and economical factors with often the most vul-

nerable at the highest risk. Long term stresses such as socio-economic inequalities, poverty and social exclusion are amplified with the occurrence of climate events. Addressing vulnerable members of communities is an integral part of building climate resilience into city’s (UN, 2016). Other fundamental components are the need to progress to a zero carbon economy and the ability to adapt our infrastructure. There is an urgency to embed adaption strategies that protect against the inevitable changing temperatures and increasing shock events (HM Government, 2011) .

1.4 Social Resilience

“Social resilience is about social entities and their abilities to tolerate, absorb, cope with and adjust to environmental and social threats of various kinds (UN Habitat, 2022).”

A climate resilient city must be a socially resilient city; inclusive and connected with an emphasis on community. Access to quality basic services and providing safe environments for people to live has a profound impact on the social resilience and overall health and wellbeing of a community. Creating socially inclusive communities enables them to bind together in the event of a natural disaster (UN Habitat, (2022).

Figure 2. Climate Change Mitigation (UN, 2021)

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1.5

Developing Resilience

“Resilience focuses on enhancing the performance of a system in the face of multiple hazards, rather than preventing or mitigating the loss of assets due to specific events ”(RCI, 2022).

Resilience can be measured at different levels. Globally, factors such as climate change, urbanization, and globalization synonymously impact every city around the world. This can be broken down further into regional, national and local levels, where place specific challenges can be addressed accordingly through effective governance. Cities are complex organisms and therefore to build greater resilience, it requires a collaborative effort from a range of stakeholders such as governments, donors, investors, policy makers, and the private sector.

(ARUP and The Rockefeller Foundation, 2022) The ‘resilience’ of a city relates to many aspects and therefore it can be

difficult to measure. The three dimensions of sustainability as identified by the UN, also apply to resilience; economic, social and environmental. Cities are likely to endure shocks which can have a significant impact on each of these dimensions. However, a fourth dimension is also frequently recognised in governance (OECD, 2018).

1.6 Resilience in the Context of Wider Themes

Resilience is one of the many themes that contribute to a city’s sustainability goals. Resilience is also embedded within themes such as; The Ecological, Green and Low Carbon City relating to environmental resilience. The City of Well-being and the concept of a Soft City are necessary to building social resilience. Creative and innovative technologies of a Smart City can be instrumental in building economic resilience through creating jobs and improving education.

Figure 3. Relationship of Themes (Authors Own)

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02 Developing a Framework 2.0 What is it?

To assess the roadmap of a city regarding one of the themes for achieving sustainable development, a critical evaluation framework is necessary. The framework is a structured analysis of a city’s performance against key drivers and indicators. It can be used to inform planning, management and the evaluation of activities. The lead themes or drivers of a city’s roadmap can then be assessed against several indicators by means of both qualitative and quantitative data (CEDARS, 2022).

2.01 Why is it Useful?

The framework provides a visual guide for identifying the strengths and weaknesses of a city’s roadmap towards a particular driver for sustainability. The weaknesses identified can then be prioritised, informing decision making by key stakeholders such as governing bodies. Global communities such as the 100 Resilient Cities Network, facilitate collaboration between nations for building better resilience. Learning from the success of other cities who performed better under certain indicators, can help build urban resilience.

2.02 Existing Frameworks

Assessing several existing frameworks allows for a bespoke, theme specific framework to be configured. Four recognised resilience frameworks have been identified and analysed to form a climate resilience critical evaluation framework for the purpose of this report. The chosen frameworks are demonstrated in Figure 5.

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United Nations

OECD

Sustainable Development Goals

Framework for Resilient Cities

ARUP

UNDRR

City Resilience Index

Making Cities Resilient

Figure 4. Four Existing Frameworks (Authors Own, Adapted from UN, ARUP, OECD & UNDRR)

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2.1 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

The resilience of a city is embedded in each of the Sustainable Development Goals. Similar to the dimensions of sustainability and resilience, the SDG’s are interrelated. With regards to the climate emergency, the implications of climate change directly impacts the ability to achieve the other SDG’s.

The effects of climate change are evident in the face of other global challenges. Societal stresses such as impoverished communities are reinforced due the effects of acute shocks such as flooding and earthquakes. If the number of climate hazards continues to rise, tackling other SDG’s such as (1) Ending poverty, (2) Zero Hunger, (3) Health and Wellbeing, (6) Clean Water and Sanitation and (10) Reducing Inequalities becomes increasingly difficult (UN, 2016).

To construct a critical evaluation framework, the most relevant SDG’s for building climate resilience have been identified along with a series of selected targets and indicators demonstrated in Figure 7.

SDG 11 “Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable”

SDG 13 “Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts” Figure 5. Climate Resilience SDG’s (UN, 2015)

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SDG

Targets

Indicators

Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected perclimate-related hazards and natural disasters sons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population in all countries

Number of countries that adopt and implement national disaster risk reduction strategies in line with the Sendai Framework

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for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 Proportion of local governments that adopt and implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with national disaster risk reduction strategies

Integrate climate change measures into Nationally determined contributions, long-term strategies, nanational policies, strategies and planning tional adaptation plans and adaptation communications Total greenhouse gas emissions per year

Improve education, awareness-raising and Extent to which (i) global citizenship education and (ii) educahuman and institutional capacity on climate tion for sustainable development are mainstreamed in (a) nachange mitigation, adaptation, impact reduc- tional education policies; (b) curricula; (c) teacher education; tion and early warning

and (d) student assessment The strengthening of institutional, systemic and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation and technology transfer, and development actions

By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct Direct economic loss in relation to global GDP, damage to criteconomic losses relative to global gross ical infrastructure and number of disruptions to basic services, domestic product caused by disasters, in- attributed to disasters cluding water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected per-

By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita envi11 Sustainable Cities & Communities

sons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population

ronmental impact of cities, including by paying Proportion of urban solid waste regularly collected and with special attention to air quality and municipal adequate final discharge out of total urban solid waste genand other waste management Indicators

erated, by cities Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (e.g. PM2.5 and PM10) in cities (population weighted)

By 2020, substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans towards inclusion, resource efficien- Number of countries that adopt and implement national disascy, mitigation and adaptation to climate ter risk reduction strategies in line with the Sendai Framework change, resilience to disasters, and develfor Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 op and implement, in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, holistic disaster risk management at all levels.

Proportion of local governments that adopt and implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with national disaster risk reduction strategies Table 2. Sustainable Development Goals, Selected Targets and Indicators (UN, 2015)

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2.2 The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Framework for Resilient Cities OECD is an economic organisation that aids in forming policies to enhance economies in the face of social, economic and environmental challenges. It is currently made up from 38 member countries, each with strong economies and a wealth of experience and knowledge that is used to form public policies (OECD, 2019). Their Resilient Cities Framework outlines a series of targets under four dimensions for building resilience. The framework does not explicitly state the indicators of each target, however Figure 8 provides an insight into examples of the indicators that relate to the each of the four dimensions.

4 Dimensions Economy • A diverse number of industries • A dynamic economy to generate growth • Conditions allow innovation to take place • People have access to employment, education, services, skills training • Infrastructure supports economic activities Society • Society is inclusive and cohesive • Citizens’ networks in communities are active • Neighborhood is safe • Citizens enjoy healthy lives • People have access to services Governance • Clear leadership and management • Strategic and integrated approaches are taken by leaders • Public sector has the right skills • Government is open and transparent • Collaboration with other levels of government Environmental • Ecosystem is sound and diverse • Infrastructure can meet basic needs • Adequate natural resources are available • Coherent policy towards land use • Adequate natural resources are available 14

Measuring Resilience

Figure 6. Resilience Dimensions and Indicators (OECD, 2018)

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2.3 ARUP City Resilience Index (CRI)

Fundamental qualities of a resilient city are outlined by the ARUP stating cities should be; • Integrated • Resourceful • Inclusive .• Robust • Reflective • Redundant • Flexible The framework developed my Arup and the Rockefeller Foundation states four dimensions to building resilience within cities; • Health and Wellbeing • Economy and Society • Infrastructure and Ecosystems • Leadership and Strategy Each of the 4 dimensions has 3 primary goals followed by a series of indicators. There is a total of 12 goals and 52 indicators. This framework can be tailored and applied to any city to measure their current state of resilience or proposed roadmaps to improve their resilience.

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Figure 7. Cities Resilience Index, Targets and Indicators (ARUP and The Rockefeller Foundation, 2022)

Dimension

Targets Minimal Human Vulnerability

Indicators Safe & Affordable Housing Adequate affordable energy supply Inclusive access to safe drinking water Effective sanitation Sufficient affordable food supply

Health & Well-being

Diverse Livelihoods & Employment

Inclusive labor policies Relevant skills and training Local business development and innovation Supportive financing mechanisms Diverse protection of livelihoods following a shock

Effective Safeguards to Human Health & Life

Robust public health systems Adequate access to quality healthcare Emergency medical care Effective emergency response services

Collective identity & Mutual Support

Local community support Cohesive communities Strong city-wide identity and culture Actively engaged citizens

Comprehensive Security & Rule of Law

Effective systems to deter crime Proactive corruption prevention

Economy & Society

Competent policing Accessible criminal & civil justice Sustainable Economy

Well-managed public finances Comprehensive business continuity planning Diverse economic base Attractive business environment Strong integration with regional and global economies

Reduced Exposure & Fragility

Comprehensive hazard and exposure mapping Appropriate codes, standards and enforcement Effectively managed protective ecosystems Robust protective infrastructure

Effective Provision of Critical Services

Effective stewardship of ecosystems Flexible infrastructure

Infrastructure & Ecosystem

Retained spare capacity Diligent maintenance & continuity Adequate continuity for critical assets and services Reliable Mobility & Communications

Diverse and affordable transport networks Effective transport operation and maintenance Reliable communication technology Secure technology networks

Effective Leadership & Management

Appropriate government decision-making Effective co-ordination with other government bodies Proactive multi-stakeholder collaboration Comprehensive hazard monitoring and risk assessment

Leadership & Strategy

Empowered Stakeholders

Adequate education for all Widespread community awareness and preparedness

Integrated Development Planning

Effective mechanisms for communities to engage with government Comprehensive city monitoring & data management Consultative planning process Appropriate land use and zoning Robust planning approval process

Table 3. Targets and Indicators (ARUP and The Rockefeller Foundation, 2022)

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2.4 UNDRR Making Cities Resilient In alignment with SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities and 13 Climate Action, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) Making Cities Resilient 2030 outlines an overarching ambition of helping cities become “inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable by 2030” (Republic, 2022).

UNDRR have created a framework, the ‘Ten Essentials for Making Cities Resilient’ for building and maintaining resilience. The framework was developed in alignment with the Sendai Framework’s drivers and indicators for disaster risk reduction at a local level. The importance of this is highlighted under the goals and indicators of SDG 11 Climate Action 13.1.2; “Number of countries that adopt and implement national disaster risk reduction strategies in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030”.

The ‘10 Essentials for Making Cities Resilient’ provides a checklist of goals and reasons ‘why?’ they are important.

Table 4 illustrates this information in the form of targets and indicators to allow for a better comparison to the other frameworks. This framework is particularly relevant as Greater Manchester’s current work towards mitigating climate and disaster risks has earned them the title as a resilience hub, awarded by the UNDRR, alongside Barcelona, Helsingborg and Milan.

1. Organise for disaster resilience

2. Identify, understand and use current and future risk scenarios 3. Strengthen financial capacity for resilience 4. Pursue resilient urban development and design 5. Safegaurd natural buffer to enhance the protective functions offered by natural ecosystems 6. Strengthen institutional capacity for resilience 7. Understand and strengthen societal capacity for resilience 8. Increase Infrastructure resilience

9. Ensure effective disaster response

10. Expedite recovery and build better

Figure 8. 10 Essentials for Resilience (UNDRR, 2020)

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Targets

Dimension

Indicators

Identify, Understand & Use Current Risk Successfully Identifying probable and worst case risk scenarios Scenarios Economic

Strengthen Financial Capacity for Resilience

Good understanding of changing hazards, geographical and economic exposure, and vulnerabilities Prepare a financial plan by understanding and assessing the significant economic impacts of disasters Adequate financial mechanisms

Understand and Strengthen Societal Capacity for Resilience

Awareness-raising educational programs and trainings for the population Understanding patterns of social vulnerability Adequately addressing the needs of the most vulnerable

Social

Social cohesion and community participation

Pursue Resilient Urban Development and Risk-informed urban planning and development based on up-to-date risk assessments Design Participatory urban planning processes and focus on vulnerable groups Safeguard Natural Buffers to Enhance the Pro- Identifying, protecting and monitoring natural ecosystective Functions Offered by Natural

Environmental

Ecosystems

Increase Infrastructure Resilience Organize for Disaster Resilience

tems Green and blue infrastructure Adequate and well-maintained infrastructure Assess the capacity and adequacy of critical infrastructure Strong leadership, clear delineation of responsibilities and coordination mechanisms Effective stakeholder engagement information dissemination and lines of communication Well-defined risk reduction strategies and policies and mechanisms

Governance

Strengthen Institutional Capacity for Resilience Governmental organizations

Private sector providing public services Industries, academic, professional and civil society organizations Ensure Effective Preparedness for Disaster Re- Emergency preparedness and response plans sponse

Installing or linking with early warning systems Increasing emergency and management capacities

Expedite recovery and build back better

Establish strategies for post-disaster recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction Alignment of strategies with long term planning goals

Table 4. Breakdown of the ‘10 Essentials’ into Targets and Indicators (Authors Own, adapted from Republic, 2022)

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03 Critical Evaluation Framework 3.0

Applying the Framework

The introductory section of this report allowed us to gain an understanding of what climate resilience is and how it relates to each dimension of sustainability. The analysis of four existing, accredited resilience frameworks , has highlighted a series of targets and indicators which have been selected as integral components of a climate resilient city. Similar targets and indicators have been merged to create a concise framework. The indicators have been categorised into their most relevant dimensions. The climate resilience critical evaluation framework (CREF) for the purpose of this report, will be used to assess the city of Manchester’s current roadmaps for building their climate resilience. Both qualitative and quantitative data provided in the city’s roadmaps will be used to score each of the indicators and providing a measurement of their current roadmaps success.

Qualitative Data “Assesses the adequacy of the mechanism and processes in place to achieve the outcome articulated by the indicators (RCI, 2022)”. Descriptive findings are subjective and therefore not always accurate however they can consider a city’s targets when assessing their success.

Quantitative Data “Identifies quantitative metrics that can be used by cities as proxies for past and current performance in relation to the indicators (RCI, 2022)”. Numerical findings provide raw data however they do not account for new plans and initiatives.

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The CREF framework is based around building resilience across four dimensions. Although governance is not explicitly stated as a dimension for sustainable development by the UN in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the importance of governance has been highlighted in the analysis of the four existing frameworks and evidenced within the research. It is critical for policy making and sustainable disaster planning and response management. “Urban vulnerability to disasters can be either further exacerbated or alleviated by different forms of local land use management and response capacities, pointing to the significant role of local governments in sustainable disaster planning and management (Holt, 2014, p.39)”. The increased frequency of natural disasters due to climate change and the effects they have on the most vulnerable members of societies has been identified as a critical challenge for building climate resilience in our cities.

The CREF frameworks scoring system uses numbers 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 to assess the success of the selected roadmaps performance against each of CREF’s indicators.

1- Poor / Not mentioned 3 - Substandard / Indirectly addressed 5 - Mediocre / Partially addressed 7 - Adequate / Addressed Directly 10 - Good / High level ambition or evidence of actions taken The maximum score that can be achieved is 240. A minimum score of 192 (80%) would suggest the roadmap successfully addresses the key aspects of building climate resilience.

3.1 Dimension

Theme

Target

Disaster Resilience

Sustainable Economy

Health and Wellbeing Social

geographical and economic exposure, and vulnerabilities Strong integration with regional and global economies Access to employment, education, services and skills training.

A diverse number of industries

Attractive business Environment

Well-managed public finances Innovation takes place Safe and affordable housing

Minimal Human Vulnerability

Understanding patterns of social vulnerability Adequate access to quality healthcare

Community

Environmental

Good understanding of changing hazards,

Reducing the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

Economic

Indicator

Strong Ecosystems

Infrastructure Resilience

Social cohesion and community participation

Strengthen Societal Capacity for Resilience Safeguard Natural Buffers Enhancing Protective Functions of Natural Ecosystems

Adequately addressing the needs of the most vulnerable Actively engaged citizens Identifying, protecting and monitoring natural ecosystems Comprehensive hazard and exposure mapping Adequate natural resources Number of disruptions to basic services at-

Effective Provision of Critical tributed to disasters Adequate green and blue infrastructure Services

Diverse and affordable transport networks

Policy

Appropriate land use and zoning

Integrate climate change measures into local policies

Governance

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions per year Adopt and implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with national disaster risk

Strategy

reduction strategies Comprehensive city monitoring & data management Effective Preparedness for Di- Well-defined risk reduction strategies and mechanisms saster Response Establish strategies for post-disaster recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction

Table 5. CREF. Climate Resilience Evaluation Framework (Authors Own)

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4.0 Background

The city of Manchester is the principal city within the Greater Manchester county. Manchester has a population of around 586,000 residents making it the 6th largest city in the United Kingdom.

Manchester has been proactive in moving towards a more sustainable future with a strong focus on its identity as a resilient city. Their sustainability objectives are aligned with the other nine metropolitan boroughs that make up Greater Manchester. In 2019 Greater Manchester declared a climate emergency, recognising its contribution to climate effects as a major industrial city (GMCA, 2020).

4.1 Shocks & Stresses

The city’s resilience has been tested in a number of ways in recent times, facing challenges such as the Boxing Day floods in 2015, the Manchester Arena attacks in 2017, the Moorland wild fires in 2018, the Whaley Bridge dam failure in 2019 and the affects of the global pandemic.

Flooding has been identified as the top risk for Manchester (O’Hare, 2021).

The Boxing Day floods in 2015 caused significant issues across the region of Greater Manchester with over 500 businesses and 2,225 properties flooded. The inter-linkages between climate induced stresses and shocks such as flooding are demonstrated in Figure 14. Rising CO2 emissions results in extreme rainfall, which has a series of repercussions on the city’s existing stresses RESIN, (2018). The economic cost of the winter floods in England were estimated to be over £1.6 billion (Environment Agency, 2018). At a local level, the most vulnerable are often worst effected such as increasing insurance premiums on homes in areas at risk. At a national level, a flood risk prevention program has been put in place by the government with an investment of £5.2 billion with over 2,000 defence schemes to increase the resilience of homes and infrastructure (GOV, 2021).

Figure 9. Climate Induced Stress Impact Chain (RESIN, 2018)

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04 Introduction to Manchester Cold and Snow

Reservoir collapse

Heath Wave

Flooding

Pandemic

Electricity transmission failure

homes / communities

Moorland Fires

Figure 10. Shocks and Stresses Illustration, (GMCA, 2021)

Pollution is a significant sustainability issue for Manchester, damaging both the environment and the health and wellbeing of the community. The world health organisation states pollution is responsible for over 7 million deaths per year, particularly affecting those living in cities. Manchester was at the heart of the industrial revolution using coal as the primary source of energy (Science and Industry Museum Manchester, 2021). The burning of harmful fossil fuels is still prevalent today. Manchester “still contributes 2.1 million tonnes of CO2 to the global mix every year, 5,700 tonnes every day” (Manchester Climate Change Agency, 2020, p.6).

Aside from adding to stresses of the city, the industrial activities played a significant role in the Moorland wild fires and flooding. The peatlands have gradually degraded due to pollution, causing acid rain and overgrazing (Britton, 2021).

The peat is therefore unable to store carbon contributing to carbon emissions and leaving them more susceptible to flooding and fires where ecosystems are severely effected. Highlighting the causes and effects of these events is crucial to building resilience into future strategies for Greater Manchester with aspirations to be a global leader as a climate resilient city.

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4.2 Steps towards Resilience International

Greater Manchester became part of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) Making Cities Resilient program in 2014. Manchester also became a member of The Resilient Cities Network in 2017, a global enterprise for urban resilience (Greater Manchester Combined Authority, 2020).

In 2021 Greater Manchester was recognised as a ‘Resilience Hub’ together with Barcelona, Helsingborg and Milan as part of the ‘Making Cities Resilient 2030’ initiative. These partnerships allow cities to share vital experiences and research based knowledge (GMCA, 2021). This information is then used to build regional or local resilience strategies such as The Greater Manchester Resilience Strategy 2030 (GMRS). The GMRS states the way sin which their local strategies are formed in the context of international frameworks such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) and the Sustainable Development Goals.

a legislative framework configured to help organisations implement plans to respond to emergencies and mitigate their impact (GOV, 2013).

National

Local • Manchester Climate Change Framework 2020-2025 • Manchester Climate Risk: A Framework for Understanding Hazards & Vulnerability • Manchester Zero Carbon Framework 2020-2038

At a national level, Manchester is involved with enterprises such as the National Consortium for Societal Resilience with partnerships across the United Kingdom. The GMRS also outlines their alignment with policies set out in the Civil Contingencies Act 2004,

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Regional & Local

Both city-region and local strategies work collectively to provide a holistic strategy for resilience with a range of strategic frameworks that assist in building climate resilience into the fabric of the city. Several of these documents will be referenced in the critical analysis of the key resilience focused roadmaps.

Regional • The Greater Manchester Strategy • Greater Manchester 5 Year Environment Plan • Greater Manchester Infrastructure Framework 2040 • Greater Manchester Transport Strategy • Greater Manchester Resilience Strategy 2020 - 2030

Figure 11. Manchester, Government (Business, 2021)

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05 Manchester’s Roadmaps

Figure 12. Understanding Hazards & Vulnerability Illustration (O’Hare, 2021)

5.0 Selected Roadmaps

The CREF framework will be used to assess Manchester’s roadmaps to improve the city’s climate resilience. Manchester has recognised that not all aspects of resilience can be covered in a single report therefore, to provide a fair assessment, data will be gathered from multiple strategies at both a local and regional level. Their targets and implementation strategies will be mapped against the CREF frameworks indicators and scored accordingly. The alignment of Manchester’s ambitions with Greater Manchester’s regional resilience strategy is relevant due to their involvement with global resilience organisations such as Rockefeller 100 RC program. Key components from each of the frameworks will be discussed before carrying out the critical evaluation. The three documents will be mapped against the critical evaluation framework are as follows; Local Level • 01 Manchester Climate Risk: A Framework for Understanding Hazards & Vulnerability • 02 Manchester Climate Change Framework 2020-2025 Regional Level • 03 Greater Manchester Resilience Strategy 2020-2030 01 MCCF

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02 FUHV

03 GMRS

“

Manchester will play its full part in limiting the impacts of climate change and create a healthy, green, socially just city where everyone can thrive.

- Manchester Climate Change Partnership and Agency

”

5.1 Manchester Climate Change Framework 2020-25 (MCCF)

The climate change framework identifies four main objectives in alignment with the 2015 Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing global temperatures.

• Staying within our carbon budgets • Climate adaptation and resilience • Health and wellbeing • Inclusive, zero carbon and climate resilient economy The report further identifies 15 priority actions for residents, schools and organisations; Getting Started 1. Commit to zero carbon and taking 9. Reduce, reuse, recycle our stuff urgent action now 10. Food 2. Measure and report your CO2 11. Green space and gardens 3. Climate change education and Carbon 12. Water conservation Literacy Inspiring and Influencing Others Taking Action 13. Where you put your money 4. Existing buildings 14. Spread the word 5. New developments and construction Ask for Help 6. Renewable energy 15. Ask politicians and decision-makers 7. Transport for help 8. Flying Manchester Climate Change Agency, (2020)

Figure 13 Structure of partnerships, Manchester Climate Change Agency, (2020)

27

“

Adapt the city’s buildings, infrastructure and natural environment to the changing climate and to increase the climate resilience of our residents and organisations - Dr Paul O’Hare, Manchester Metropolitan University

5.2 Manchester Climate Risk: A Framework For Understanding Hazards & Vulnerability (FUHV) This document does not outline action plans for combating the climate hazards and risks identified, however it is important to reference as it demonstrates a clear awareness of the cities vulnerabilities. The report compiles existing information that highlights Manchester’s primary climate risks, further detailing how they may worsen in the future. The framework categorises the city’s vulnerabilities into six sections summarised in Table 6. By identifying the vulnerabilities of the city it allows them to focus their resources and future development plans on the areas at highest risk.

28

”

Theme 1. People & Society

Vulnerabilities The health, wealth and well-being of everyone in society are fundamental indicators of the success and vitality of a city. Manchester is a complex and diverse city, communities and individuals will be affected by climate change in different ways.

Some people will have greater capacity to respond than others.

1.01 Geographical Exposure to Climate Risk 1.02 Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities 1.03 Civil-Society & The Voluntary Sector 1.04 Human Health

1.05 Human Health & Social Care Services

2. Economic Activity

Wealth and economic opportunity is not shared across the city or its people.

Climate change will bring both threats and opportunities to the economic sustainability and the competitiveness of the city. It has the potential to have significant implications for social justice and inclusive growth.

2.01 Disruption of Business Continuity 2.02 Disruption to Supply Chains 2.03 Impacts on Buildings 2.04 Ensuring Inclusive, Socially Just Economic Development

3. Place & The Built Environment

The places that we inhabit, and more specifically our built environment, is a key element of our exposure to the impacts to climate change. We need to consider how our urban spaces, public places, parks and green spaces are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

3.01 Buildings 3.02 Built and Cultural Heritage 3.03 Spatial Planning and Building Standards 3.04 Public Spaces 3.05 Supporting Other Ambitions of the city

4. Infrastructure

The effective functioning of infrastructure is vital for economic and social wellbeing of all those that live and work in the city. Climate change threatens to both exacerbate long-standing vulnerabilities and introduce new vulnerabilities to the city’s infrastructure networks.

4.01 Defining the Criticality of the Infrastructure 4.02 Direct Impacts of Climate Hazards 4.03 Impacts on Hazard Management Infrastructure 4.04 Cascading Impacts of Infrastructure Failure

5. Natural Environment, Biodiversity, Green & Blue Infrastructure

6. Cross-Cutting Themes

4.05 Drivers of Risk Beyond Hazard Exposure Manchester has a vast range of green and blue space and biodiversity. However, these spaces are of varying quality, and will come under increasing pressure from future development and fragmentation. Some of these spaces and their biodiversity and quality will themselves be impacted by climate change.

5.01 Urban Green Space, Woodlands and Forests 5.02 Canals, Rivers, Lakes and Ponds 5.03 Direct Impact of Climate Hazards 5.04 Biodiversity 5.05 Invasive Spaces These include interdependencies that will frame any efforts to adapt to climate change such as the management of risk across the city’s boundaries, and evaluating the understanding of climate risk, resilience and adaptation.

6.01 Risk Beyond the City Boundaries 6.02 Knowledge and Understanding of Climate Risk, Resilience and Adaptation 6.03 Adaptive Capacity of the City 6.04 Broader Socio-Economic Resilience of the City

Table 6. Components of strategic framework, Adapted from ‘A Framework For Understanding Hazards & Vulnerability’ (O’Hare, 2021)

29

“

The ways in which we are affected by emergencies and longer-term shocks, are compounded by pre-existing challenges in our society which often come to the fore in a crisis, whether a lack of community cohesion, insufficient funding for essential services, or degradation of the natural environment with a loss of biodiversity. This cycle can be mitigated by our approach to urban resilience and by baking resilience considerations into every investment decision we make.

- Dr Kathy Oldham, Greater Manchester’s Resilience Officer

5.3 Greater Manchester Resilience Strategy 2020-2030 (GMRS) The strategy was developed using the resources provided as part of the 100 Resilient Cities Network. The strategy emphasises the ‘interdependence of resilience issues’ with each of the themes interconnected. The strategy looks to be delivered using agencies and partnerships throughout the region and with the aid of global resilience groups as previously discussed. The document highlights five resilience priorities for action which are demonstrated under ‘Theme’ in Table 7. Each of the actions associated with the themes are detailed within the Greater Manchester Resilience Strategy report. Each priority is reinforced with working examples of policy actions, target setting and live projects that collectively build resilience into the city. The CREF indicators will consider each of the actions when scoring their performance in the critical evaluation framework.

30

”

Theme 1. Communities

Actions Building cohesive, healthy and resilient communities.

1.01 Enhancing the capacity of communities to deal with emergencies and mobilising community participation in response and recovery 1.02 Dealing with hateful extremism through social cohesion 1.03 Finding ways to increase community resilience, including by supporting intergenerational engagement 1.04 Working with the voluntary and faith sectors at the local and national level to maximise the capacity to support communities

2. Discovery

Enhancing resilience understanding 2.01 Understanding hazards and vulnerability in Greater Manchester, including by identifying emerging and interdependent risk 2.02 Measuring resilience through the use of metrics and baseline assessments 2.03 Developing new ideas to address risk and achieve resilience dividends, including by drawing on academic expertise 2.04 Understanding and addressing the emerging challenges and opportunities of new technologies Shaping resilience within Greater Manchester

3. Leadership

3.01 Building on the governance structures and partnership working of the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum to co-ordinate and drive resilience-building activities 3.02 Shaping and influencing resilience agendas across Greater Manchester, nationally and internationally to make them relevant and supportive to Greater Manchester’s communities 3.03 Ensuring that the delivery of the Resilience Strategy represents value for money and improves outcomes for people in Greater Manchester

4. Place

Being ready for future challenges 4.01 Using a resilience lens to enhance our economy 4.02 Promoting a resilient built environment – planning for resilient urban growth 4.03 Protecting and promoting the resilience value of the natural environment 4.04 Leveraging funding to make us more resilient

5. Responding

Sustaining effective preparedness, response and recovery from emergencies 5.01 Developing plans and capabilities to enable effective response and recovery following emergencies 5.02 Designing and delivering multi-agency training and exercising to improve responders’ awareness and skills, and to validate plans 5.03 Providing the public with information and guidance and supporting community resilience to increase emergency preparedness 5.04 Identifying and using learning from incidents to strengthen response and recovery arrangements

Table 7. Greater Manchester resilience priorities, (GMRS, 2020)

31

06 Critical Evaluation

32

6.0 Method The four dimensions indicators will be analysed by extracting the key reference points from each of Manchester’s selected roadmaps. Every score will reflect the quality of the information provided in the roadmaps with regards to its specificity, measurability and reachability. This analysis will be used to demonstrate whether the indicators have been successfully met or if there is scope for improvement. The scores from each dimension will be used to calculate a percentage for each.

The summative scores can then be mapped into a radar diagram to give a clear visual representation of which dimensions performed best.

33

Economic Evaluation

Theme / 6.1 Disaster Resilience

Target / Reducing the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters Indicators

Good understanding of changing hazards, geographical and economic exposure, and vulnerabilities

Analysis

Score

Justification

MCCF - Provides quantitative data such as evidence of the in-

Strong evidence based

creasing frequency of natural disasters from 1945 & the city’s cur-

research that highlights specific vulnerabilities across

rent carbon emissions. This has been used to inform future carbon budgets.

10

all dimensions, their inter-

FUHV - Details the cities economic vulnerabilities and hazards

relationships and how they

demonstrated in table 6, theme 2 “Economic Activity”.

should be addressed moving

GMRS - Table 7, theme 2 “Economic Activity”. Actions 2.01 and

forward.

2.04 directly address this theme.

Strong integration with regional and global economies

MCCF - Highlights strengths & weaknesses of being a global eco-

The roadmaps clearly demon-

nomic power. Weaknesses include consumption based activities

strate a strong integration with

increasing carbon emissions. Strengths include the potential to be

Score regional and global economies.

an integral part of a global zero carbon economy by 2025, promot-

Good use of partnership agen-

ing innovation and rewarding good practice.

cies to help vulnerable people in

FUHV - Manchester is described as a ‘powerhouse’ regional economy, “2018 Manchester’s GVA was estimated to be £22,500 million

the event of an emergency.

10

Integrating with global econo-

(Manchester City Council, 2021). It further states the challenges a

mies to develop action plans

post industrial economy faces and the economic and opportunity

at regional, national and inter-

based inequalities that must be addressed.

national levels strengthen the

GMRS - Table 7, 4.01 discusses ‘GM Economic Shock Response

city’s resilience strategies and

Plan’. Partner agencies aid in the event of economic shocks effect-

the ability to sustain a strong

ing the most vulnerable.

economy.

MCCF - Strong strategic partnerships; Manchester Work and

Access to employment, education, services and skills training.

Skills Board, the Age Friendly Manchester Older People’s Board,

The strategy acknowledges the

Manchester Youth Council, and others. These “ensure the city’s

importance of these areas with

education organisations are helping our residents to develop the

regards to building resilience.

green skills they need to secure jobs in the city’s zero carbon econ-

They present clear evidence of

omy.”

progress through quantitative

FUHV - Demonstrates the opportunities presented with increasing

analysis and qualitative objectives. The strategies could

and infrastructure can provide employment for qualified and skilled

benefit from specific, qualitative

trades people and professionals.

targets for increasing opportuni-

GMRS - Manchester has 5 universities with leading roles in educa-

ties for vulnerable people as a

tion. Strong progress in recent years with 226k more employment

way to reduce inequalities.

opportunities than in 2011, however they state a clear ambition to build on this.

Table 8. Disaster Resilience, Critical Evaluation (Authors Own)

34

7

resilience to climate emergencies. For example, adapting buildings

Theme / 6.2 Sustainable Economy Target / Attractive business environment Indicators

A diverse number of industries

Analysis

Score

MCCF - Focuses on employment opportunities that are used to

The use of assessment

address environmental issues the city faces. “Greater Manchester

tools such as the UNDRR

companies in the low carbon and environmental goods and ser-

scorecard for resilience

vices sector currently employ over 45,000 people.”

allowed for a successful

FUHV - Not identified as a weakness of Manchester.

10

analysis which competently

GMRS - “Resilience assessment tools indicate that Greater

demonstrated the city and

Manchester has a diverse, productive and stable local economy.

region has a diverse number

Against global benchmarks Greater Manchester has a strong city-

of industries.

wide identity and culture.”

Well-managed public finances

Justification

MCCF - Identifies the high cost of reducing carbon emissions

Clear indication of the

through interventions such as retrofit projects. The current lack of

correlation between public

financial incentives are identified, with plans to work with the UK

finances and economic

government to increase funding.

resilience. Strategy could

FUHV - Finances are briefly identified as part of the critical infrastructure for the city however does not highlight it as a significant

discuss more directly what 7

financial measures would

vulnerability.

need to take place to further

GMRS - Demonstrates an understanding of the importance of the

improve Manchester’s

financial capacity required for a sustainable economy that must

resilience to shocks and

cope with shocks and stresses. Table 7, action 4.04 further details

stresses.

the importance of funding for building resilience.

MCCF - States clear ambitions to become one of the “Best plac-

Innovation takes place

es in the world to innovate, invest and roll-out new solutions to

The strategies highlight the

climate change.” Manchester is involved in a series of innovative

importance of innovation

projects to reach zero carbon ambitions.

and the way in which it’s

- eGrowGreen, using nature-based solutions to help Manchester

embedded in the history and

and our five partner cities adapt to the changing climate48.

10

future aspirations for the city.

- C-Change supports the arts and culture sectors in Manchester.

GMRS also relates innova-

- Triangulum looks to establish the Corridor as a zero carbon in-

tion to producing disaster

novation district

risk reduction strategies. It

FUHV - No reference to innovation as a vulnerability of Manches-

is evident the significance

ter

placed on innovation in the

GMRS - Table 7, 2.03 highlights innovation as a key component of

economy and for building

building resilience. The region also states the ambition to be a top

climate resilience.

five European digital city region promoting innovation.

Table 9. Sustainable Economy, Critical Evaluation (Authors Own)

Score 54 / 60

35

Social Evaluation Theme / 6.3 Community

Target / Strengthen Societal Capacity for Resilience Indicators

Analysis

Score

Justification

MCCF - Manchester city council has worked on several community focused strategic plans. Examples include physical connectivity strategies; Metro-link Expansion & increased cycling

Social cohesion and community participation

infrastructure. The Nature of Hulme project; improving green infra-

Strong focus on communities

structure, working with a neighborhood team for an environmental

for building resilience into the fabric of the city across all doc-

appraisal and visioning exercises.

FUHV - Table 6, vulnerability 1.03, “Civil society organisations and

10

uments. Working examples of

the voluntary and community sector play a significant role in sup-

projects provide clear evidence

porting and providing vital services to communities and individuals,

of Manchester’s approach in

some of whom are the most socially and economically precarious”

practice.

GMRS - Table 7, actions 1.01-04 all focus on bringing communities together in the face of shocks and stresses.

Adequately addressing the needs of the most vulnerable

MCCF - Under the primary objective of Health & Wellbeing, aspi-

The range of vulnerabilities

rations to “improve the health and wellbeing of everyone in Man-

within the city is large and dif-

chester through actions that also contribute to our objectives for

ficult to address in a succinct

CO2 reduction and adaption and resilience, with particular focus

report. Strong efforts have been

on those most in need” are backed up with objectives such as

7

made to set targets and imple-

getting “38,000 Manchester households out of fuel poverty.”

ment actions to reduce them.

FUHV - Outlines human vulnerabilities in table 6, theme 1 ‘People

However

& Society”.

highlighted in the FUHV are not

GMRS - Table 7, action 1.03 is an example of an ambition to re-

addressed at the regional and

duce vulnerabilities. ‘Ambition for Ageing’ is an initiative created to

local level strategies.

the

vulnerabilities

help the vulnerable elderly to cope in the event of an emergency.

MCCF - Promotes awareness at all levels; “schools, colleges, universities and organisations embedding learning on climate change

Actively engaged citizens

throughout their teaching and training, equipping all our students

Clear identification of the indi-

and workers with the skills and knowledge they need to drive pos-

cators importance and strong

itive change.”

ambitions to raise awareness of

FUHV - Discusses the use of climate risk assessments; “they should be expert led, but informed by the city’s stakeholders and

strategy could be more specific

public”. workshops and seminars are used to open a dialogue

in terms of the way this would

between different stakeholders, configuring plans to build climate

be implemented and how the

resilience into the community.

results

GMRS - Table 7, action 5.03 emphasises the importance of com-

mined.

munity engagement. Actions include behavioral insight research, conducted through interviews and polls to improve communication techniques.

Table 10. Community, Critical Evaluation (Authors Own)

36

climate action at all levels. The 7

of this can be deter-

Theme / 6.4 Health and Wellbeing Target / Minimal Human Vulnerability Indicators

Safe and affordable housing

Analysis

Score

Justification

MCCF - No reference to providing affordable housing.

Stronger

FUHV - Under table 6, vulnerability 1.02, the document recognis-

at a local level to provide safe

es the socio-economic vulnerabilities are directly linked with poor

and affordable housing as a

quality housing. The lack of affordable housing leads to increasing

5

emphasis

required

way to reduce human vulner-

deprivation in certain areas.

ability in the event of a shock

GMRS - Table 7, theme 4 ‘Place’; the strategy sets out to deliv-

incident. This is also integral

er “at least 50,000 new affordable homes over the period 2018-

to reducing chronic stresses in

2037.”

the city. Quantitative targets at a regional level could be further evidenced.

MCCF - Identifies clear strategic motive to improve social justice,

Understanding patterns of social vulnerability

however does not explicitly state the patterns of social vulnerabil-

FUHV provides a good under-

ity to be addressed.

standing of the primary demo-

FUHV - Table 6, vulnerability 1.02 details the primary socio-eco-

graphics and types of people

nomic vulnerabilities for Manchester such as;

who are most at risk. Howev-

“- People on low incomes, at serious socio-economic disadvan-

er, at a local level there could be greater emphasis placed

tage, or living in poverty.

- The elderly or very young.

7

on the need to address the is-

- Black and minority ethnic communities.

sues of the most vulnerable as

- Households unable to access transport.

an important aspect of climate

- Those with fewer educational qualifications.

resilience.

- People in ill-health.”

considers this more thoroughly

- People with physical or cognitive impairments.

therefore a high score has still

GMRS - Refers to the shorter life expectancies and patters of pov-

been awarded.

Regional

strategy

erty however does not detail information about Manchester specifically. Priority 2 ‘Discovery’ 2.01 also addresses this.

MCCF - Details the importance of partnerships for ensuring this issue is addressed directly. Partnerships include the Manchester Health and Wellbeing Board.

Adequate access to quality healthcare

FUHV - Table 6, vulnerabilities 1.04 & 1.05 discuss the effects climate related events can have on the health and wellbeing of

Healthcare has been acknowl10

edged and assessed within the

particularly the most vulnerable, emphasising a need for quality

strategies, demonstrating Man-

healthcare.

chester does provide adequate

GMRS - “Resilience assessment tools indicate that Greater Man-

access to quality healthcare.

chester’s health systems are robust and deliver quality healthcare.

Against global benchmarks there is limited human vulnerability due to lack of sanitation, food and housing provision”

Table 11. Health and Wellbeing, Critical Evaluation (Authors Own) Score 46 / 60

37

Environmental Evaluation Theme / 6.5 Strong Ecosystems

Target / Safeguard Natural Buffers to Enhance the Protective Functions Indicators

Analysis

Score

Justification

MCCF - Under the “Climate Adaption and Resilience” headline, the objective is “To adapt the city’s buildings, infrastructure and natural environment to the changing climate and to increase the climate resilience of our residents and organisations.” The report

Across all three reports there is

makes several references to the Greater Manchester Environment

a well evidenced understand-

Plan for 2019-24 which further details environmental analysis and

ing of the impact Manchester’s

objectives. MCCF does state “Based on the GM IGNITION project:

industry is having on its ecosystems and how this could be

increase urban green infrastructure by 10% by 2038, from 2018

Identifying, protecting and monitoring natural ecosystems

10

levels.”

improved. The Greater Man-

FUHV - Table 6, theme 5. “Natural Environment, Biodiversity,

chester Environment plan fur-

Green & Blue Infrastructure” details the need to identify protect,

ther specifies courses of action

monitor and enhance the natural assets of Manchester to improve

to assist these documents find-

climate resilience.

ings. The score has therefore

GMRS - Highlights the scope for improvement against this indi-

not been lowered as there has

cator “assessments suggest that effective stewardship of ecosys-

been direct references made to

tems could be improved and that, against global benchmarks, the

the environment plan through-

data Greater Manchester holds on ecosystems and infrastructure

out.

needs to be reviewed.”

MCCF - Under the headlng “Climate Adaptation and Resilience Objective” the document discusses the need to adapt to extreme weather events with an emphasis on flooding. The hazards are

Comprehensive hazard and exposure mapping

quantitatively analysed, demonstrating the increase of storms,

Each document either di-

droughts, floods and fog.

rectly describes the relevant

FUHV - Table 6, theme 5 “Natural Environment, Biodiversity,

hazards and exposures or

Green & Blue Infrastructure” provides a generic summary of po-

makes reference to subse-

tential hazards associated with climate change and degradation

10

quent document/source that

of natural environments.

competently analyses spe-

GMRS - Table 7, action 5.04 discusses the use of public and

cific risks and hazards. Good

private sector open data maps that provide information such

use of both quantitative and

as flood risk areas and critical infrastructure. “Mapping Greater

qualitative data to inform the

Manchester provides a series of open data maps to support an

resilience strategy

open and inclusive approach to sustainable and resilient development in Greater Manchester.”

MCCF To ensure the maintenance and growth of the cities natural resources there is an emphasis on ‘nature based solutions’.

It further details the use of an EU-funded project in West Gorton focused on integrating nature-based solutions into the city to

Adequate natural resources

reduce flood risk, increase biodiversity and improve health and

Good use of case studies

wellbeing. This model will be used as a precedent for other proj-

which

assessing and improving the city’s natural resources.

clear

objectives set by the city to

ects in the city that improve green and blue infrastructure.

FUHV Table 6, theme 5 similarly highlights the importance of

demonstrate

10

retain and improve natural resources.

GMRS Table 7, action 4.03 “Protecting and promoting the resilience value of the natural environment” highlights a strategy to improve the natural resources. “This includes planting 3 million trees, one tree for every person living in Greater Manchester and bringing 2,000 hectares of unmanaged woodland back into use”

38

Table 12. Strong Ecosystems, Critical Evaluation (Authors Own)

Theme / 6.6 Infrastructure Resilience

Target / Effective Provision of Critical Services Indicators

Analysis

Score

Justification

MCCF - Brief mention is made to the cause of disruptions such as “floods and storms account for the highest risks,

Number of disruptions to basic services attributed to disasters

and these events stand out as priorities for adaptation and

Clearer distinction of the

resilience planning and action.” No reference is made to the

most vulnerable infrastruc-

services most affected.

ture services could be

FUHV - Table 6, theme 4 ‘Infrastructure’ describes the ad-

made in principle resilience

verse effects of shock events on infrastructure. Under 4.04 7

strategy documents. The

the report outlines the ‘interdependent’ and ‘interconnect-

supplementary infrastructure

ed’ nature of infrastructure. However no specific reference is

framework report is useful in

made to the infrastructure in Manchester at the greatest risk.

addressing these in greater

GMRS - Highlights the effects and costs of recent disasters

detail therefore Manchester’s

such as the boxing day floods in 2015. The report makes ref-

consideration is reflected in

erence to the Greater Manchester Infrastructure Framework

the high score.

which discusses in greater detail the services at greatest risk and targets for future development.

MCCF - References the alignment with ‘Manchester Green

There is evidence to support

and Blue Infrastructure to 2025’ document. “our headline ac-

Manchester has strong blue

tion is to ensure that the city’s climate change objectives are

and green infrastructure net-

fully embedded in the development and implementation of

works vital to the city. All of

the refreshed strategy”

which have been assessed

for hazards and risks and Adequate green and blue infra- FUHV - Table 6, theme 5 “Natural Environment, Biodiversity, Green & Blue Infrastructure” demonstrates the areas of green 10 projects have taken place to structure and blue infrastructure at greatest risk.

improve their resilience such

GMRS - Table 7, action 4.04 discusses how Greater Man-

as the new Banks imple-

chester “requires a 10% uplift in urban green infrastructure

mented on the West Pennine

to adapt to the projected climate change impacts of flood-

Moors to retain water and

ing and overheating by 2038.” The IGNITION project will be

restore the precious peat

used to finance investments into the region.

lands for flood defense.

MCCF Transport is integral to Manchester’s climate resilience objectives. “The most common activity identified as a priority for Manchester City Council and partners was for better public transport (47%).” The document further details projects to improve transport networks; metrolink expansion

Diverse and affordable transport networks

and new cycling infrastructure to promote active travel in the

Diversity and accessibility

city.

of transport networks is

FUHV Access to transport is a social vulnerability of a num- 5

competently addressed.

ber of households in the city. There is reference throughout

Affordable transport has not

of the importance of transport networks to increase resil-

been mentioned in each of

ience. Affordability however is not mentioned.

the documents.

GMRS The Greater Manchester transport strategy is highlighted as a supplementary document that supports diverse and affordable transport networks. Frequent mention to the importance of diverse and resilient transport networks throughout.

Table 13. Infrastructure Resilience, Critical Evaluation (Authors Own) Score 52 / 60

39

Governance Evaluation Theme / 6.7 Policy

Target / Integrate Climate Change Measures into Local Policies Indicators

Analysis

Score

Justification

MCCF - Indirectly refers to the importance of land use. Provides examples of community projects such as ‘The Barlow

Appropriate land use and zoning

Road Community Orchard’. The council provided the com-

Greater emphasis could be

munity with grants to plant trees and growing spaces within

placed at a local level of the

a plot of land previously used by fly-tippers.

impact insufficient land use

FUHV - Table 6, vulnerability 5.01 states the need to assess

has on the city. Secondly,

these assets and ensure they are retained and adapted to

there is no reference to how

mitigate climate change impacts. “These spaces are of vary- 5

policy actions are required

ing quality, and will come under increasing pressure from fu-

to address unsustainable

ture development and fragmentation.”

development. Land use

GMRS - Land use change is displayed as the central driver

importance is demonstrated

for climate change together with greenhouse gas emissions.

well at a regional level.

GMRS works alongside the city’s infrastructure framework to highlight the impact land use has on the environment and critical infrastructure. 12 measures have been set out to improve this.

MCCF - The report places huge importance on the need to reduce the cities green house gas emissions. Quantitative analysis of the sectors which contribute to emissions is ref-

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions per year

erenced throughout. Targets are set and methods to achieve

The MCCF report provides

the targets are identified. Evidence includes “To emit a maxi-

extensive research into the

mum of 15 million tonnes of CO2 from our homes, workplac-

impacts of Manchester’s

es and ground transport from 2018. We will reduce our direct

emissions and their targets

CO2 emissions by at least 50% between 2020-25. In line with

for the future. Action plans

this budget we will emit: A maximum of 6.9 million tonnes, 10

support this research,

during 2018-22, and, A maximum of 3.6 million tonnes during

situated in the context of

2023-27.”

local, regional and national

FUHV - Emissions are directly referred to as a vulnerability as

agendas.

well as their socio-economic impact.

GMRS - States how the region is responsible for roughly 3.6% of the UK’s annual total of CO2 emissions. The GMRS alludes to the five year environmental plan document that breaks down the methods used to help reduce this significantly.

MCCF - Clear demonstration of the roadmaps objectives in allignment with the UK Cities and Core Cities Networks. Similarly within the European and International Cities Networks.

Adopt and implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with national disaster risk reduction strategies

FUHV - Several national documents have informed the

Strong influence from nation-

framework development such as; UK Climate Projections

al and international frame-

(UKCP) 2018, The National Risk Register 2020, EU’s recently 10

works that support disaster

published Adaptation Strategy, the UN’s Adaptation Gap Re-

risk

port and work from C40 Cities, the Rockefeller 100 Resilient

Each have been used to in-

Cities network and the Carbon Disclosure Project.

form the development of the

GMRS - Explicitly states alignment with Sendai Framework

roadmaps.

reduction

strategies.

and collaboration with other nations within the ‘Making Cities Resilient 2030’ initiative in 2021.

40

Table 14. Policy, Critical Evaluation (Authors Own)

Theme / 6.8 Strategy

Target / Effective Preparedness for Disaster Response Indicators

Analysis

Score

Justification

MCCF - Important data such as the carbon emissions of the city, carbon budgets and weather hazards are clearly mapped. The framework also recognises the importance of frequently monitoring and updating data, providing a link to annual progress reports ‘www.manchesterclimate.com/

MCCF provides sufficient

progress’.

data relevant to building cli-

FUHV - Does not directly reference specific data. “Given the

mate resilience. Data man-

data requirements of the task, the complexity of risk assess-

agement and city monitoring

Comprehensive city monitoring ments at a city scale and the fact that risk and risk management is fundamentally a phenomenon that rarely adheres to 10 & data management

is also evidenced throughout the GMRS with reference to

administrative boundaries, it is possible that the most appro-

several documents that pro-

priate spatial scale for data collection and analysis will be at

vide the research necessary

the regional scale (Greater Manchester).”

to inform their regional resil-

GMRS - Table 6, theme 1 ‘Communities’ describes the need

ience strategy.

for monitoring for preparedness and to inform responses to shocks requiring “Local monitoring and two way information flow with responders and with the wider public”. At a national scale as part of the ‘Making Cities Resilient 2030’ this network assists in building resilience tools, sharing valuable knowledge and reporting progress.

MCCF - Risk reduction is embedded throughout the document. The report’s 15 primary actions all reflect a holistic

Well-defined risk reduction strategies and mechanisms

strategy for reducing the impact of climate associated risks.

Risks at a local level are

FUHV - Understanding the key risks and vulnerabilities this is

clearly identified and ac-

used to inform the development of risk reduction strategies.

tions to mitigate them are

GMRS - Table 7, action 2.03 discusses the Uscore2 project,

proposed. The regional re-

“the world’s first city to disaster risk reduction peer review 10

silience strategy as a whole

tool led by Greater Manchester and Manchester University....

provides a range of refer-

the tool was aligned to the indicators for the Sendai Frame-

ences to risk reduction strat-

work and Making Cities Resilient program so that the peer

egies evidenced with specif-

reviews of local civil protection mechanisms could offer an

ic examples.

independent and transparent assessment to assist cities in the challenge of strengthening their implementation of disaster risk reduction.”

MCCF - Does not directly address the need for post-disaster

Could be further addressed

recovery strategies.

at a local level however the

FUHV - Outlines the risks of climate change and the need for

regional roadmap demon-

post-disaster recovery, particularly in figure x 6.02 and 6.03.

Establish strategies for post-disaster recovery, rehabil- GMRS - Table 7, theme 5 ‘responding’ extensively describes 7 the importance of “sustaining effective preparedness, reitation, and reconstruction

strates working examples of rehabilitation and reconstruction strategies.

sponse and recovery from emergencies”.

Table 15. Strategy, Critical Evaluation (Authors Own)

Score 52 / 60

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07 Framework Evaluation

Economic

Social

Environmental

Governance Figure 14. Summative Evaluation Radar Diagram

7.0 Radar Analysis

The diagram illustrates the performance of Manchester’s strategic roadmaps to become a climate resilient city against the four dimensions of resilience. A percentage was calculated from the scores provided by the critical evaluation framework and mapped onto Figure 14.

This demonstrates the success of Manchester across each of the dimensions scoring above 75% in each. Manchester achieved a total score of 204 / 240 equating to 85% overall. As previously determined, scoring above 80% in the critical evaluation framework indicates that the city has a strong roadmap for building climate resilience. However the weakest dimension was ‘Social’, indicating further considerations should be made in future versions of their resilience strategies addressing issues such as affordable housing and addressing the needs of the most vulnerable citizens to strengthen the city’s climate resilience.

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08 Conclusion 8.0 Manchester has demonstrated that resilience is

integral to the city’s sustainable development targets.

Their consideration of the topic has been evidenced throughout a series of analytical reports and strategic roadmaps that tackle interrelated themes of the topic.

Each of the three roadmaps assessed in this report by the CREF framework reflect a competent assessment of the city’s current challenges, their ambitions for the future and the changes required to build greater climate resilience. Their multi-dimensional approach was clear with each of the dimensions firmly addressed and scoring high against the CREF’s indicators. Furthermore they have highlighted the importance of continually updating and re-assessing their current targets in response to the changing climate. The city has faced an array of shocks all of which reflect their pro-active response to forming adaptation and mitigation strategies for the future.

Manchester has established itself as a global leader for building climate resilience, reflected in their collaboration with several established organisations allowing them to share their research and knowledge at a local, national and international level, promoting innovative resilience solutions which collectively strive towards progressive sustainable development within the city.

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GOV, (2013). Preparation and planning for emergencies: responsibilities of responder agencies and others. [online] GOV.UK. Available at: <https://www.gov.uk/guidance/preparation-and-planning-for-emergencies-responsibilities-of-responder-agencies-and-others> [Accessed 4 March 2022].

GOV, (2021). Flood and coastal erosion risk management: an investment plan for 2021 to 2027. [online] GOV.UK. Available at: <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-an-investment-plan-for-2021-to-2027#:~:text=The%20government%20is%20investing%20%C2%A3,to%20better%20protect%20336%2C000%20properties.> [Accessed 28 March 2022].

Greater Manchester Combined Authority, (2020). Greater Manchester Resilience Strategy 2020 - 2030. [online] Manchester. Available at: <https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov. uk/media/4542/greater-manchester-resilience-strategy-2020-2030.pdf> [Accessed 21 March 2022].

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Heberle, Lauren C., and Susan M. Opp. (2008) Local Sustainable Urban Development in a Globalized World. Aldershot: Ashgate. [Accessed 5 March 2022].

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RESIN, (2018). Climate Change Impact Chains: a Greater Manchester Case Study. [online] Available at: <https://resin-cities.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Resources/City_report_GM/ GM_Impact_Chains_Final_Report_-_Final_Draft.pdf> [Accessed 4 March 2022].

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UNDRR, (2020). About Making Cities Resilient 2030. [online] Mcr2030.undrr.org. Available at:<https://mcr2030.undrr.org/#:~:text=Making%20Cities%20Resilient%202030%20 (MCR2030,layers%20of%20government%20and%20building> [Accessed 2 March 2022].

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10 Figures Figure 0. Front Cover S L Scott Art, (2021). Manchester Illustration. [image] Available at: <https://www.slscott. co.uk/> [Accessed 5 March 2022].

Figure 1. Sustainable Development Goals UN, (2015). Sustainable Development Goals launch in 2016. [online] United Nations Sustainable Development. Available at: <https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/ blog/2015/12/sustainable-development-goals-kick-off-with-start-of-new-year/> [Accessed 5 April 2022].

Figure 2. UN Sustainable Vision United Nations, (2021). UN Sustainable Vision. [image] Available at: <https://www.un.org/ en/climatechange/> [Accessed 30 March 2022].

Figure 3. Relationship of Themes Authors Own (2022) Figure 4. Four Existing Frameworks Authors Own, (2022) Adapted from UN, ARUP, OECD & UNDRR) Figure 5. Climate Resilience SDG’s UN, (2015). Sustainable Development Goals launch in 2016. [online] United Nations Sustainable Development. Available at: <https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/ blog/2015/12/sustainable-development-goals-kick-off-with-start-of-new-year/>[Accessed 5 April 2022].

Figure 6. Resilience Dimensions and Indicators OECD, (2018). Indicators for Resilient Cities. OECD Regional Development Working Papers. [online] Available at: <https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/indicators-for-resilient-cities_6f1f6065-en#page1> [Accessed 12 February 2022].

Figure 7. Cities Resilience Index, Targets and Indicators Resilient Cities Network, (2022). What is urban resilience? - Resilient Cities Network. [online] Resilient Cities Network. Available at: <https://resilientcitiesnetwork.org/what-is-resilience/>.

Figure 8. 10 Essentials for Resilience UNDRR, (2020). About Making Cities Resilient 2030. [online] Mcr2030.undrr.org. Available at:<https://mcr2030.undrr.org/#:~:text=Making%20Cities%20Resilient%202030%20 (MCR2030,layers%20of%20government%20and%20building> [Accessed 2 March 2022].

Figure 9. Climate Induced Stress Impact Chain RESIN, (2018). Climate Change Impact Chains: a Greater Manchester Case Study. [online] Available at: <https://resin-cities.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Resources/City_report_GM/ GM_Impact_Chains_Final_Report_-_Final_Draft.pdf> [Accessed 4 March 2022].

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Figure 10. Shocks and Stresses Illustration Greater Manchester Combined Authority, (2020). Greater Manchester Resilience Strategy 2020 - 2030. [online] Manchester. Available at: <https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov. uk/media/4542/greater-manchester-resilience-strategy-2020-2030.pdf> [Accessed 21 March 2022].

Figure 11. Manchester City Centre Government Business, (2021). Manchester. [image] Available at: <https://governmentbusiness.co.uk/features/manchester-meets-world> [Accessed 26 March 2022].

Figure 12. Understanding Hazards & Vulnerability Illustration O’Hare, P. (2021) Manchester’s climate risk: a framework for understanding hazards & vulnerability. Manchester, Manchester Climate Change Agency.

Figure 13. Structure of partnerships, Manchester Climate Change Agency Manchester Climate Change Agency, (2020). MANCHESTER CLIMATE CHANGE FRAMEWORK 2020-25. [online] Available at: <https://www.manchesterclimate.com/ sites/default/files/Manchester%20Climate%20Change%20Framework%202020-25. pdf> [Accessed 22 February 2022].

Figure 14. Summative Evaluation Radar Diagram Authors Own, (2022)

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11 Tables Table 1. Definitions of Resilience OECD, (2018). Indicators for Resilient Cities. OECD Regional Development Working Papers. [online] Available at: <https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/indicators-for-resilient-cities_6f1f6065-en#page1> [Accessed 12 February 2022].

Table 2. Sustainable Development Goals, Selected Targets and Indicators UN, (2015). [image] Available at: <https://sdgs.un.org/goals> [Accessed 5 April 2022].

Table 3. Targets and Indicators ARUP and The Rockefeller Foundation, (2022). City Resilience Index. [online] Cityresilienceindex.com. Available at: <http://www.cityresilienceindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/170223_CRI-Brochure.pdf> [Accessed 15 February 2022].

Table 4. Breakdown of the ‘10 Essentials’ into Targets and Indicators Authors Own, (2022) adapted from UNDRR Table 5. CREF, Climate Resilience Evaluation Framework Authors Own, (2022) Table 6. Components of strategic framework, Adapted from ‘A Framework For Understanding Hazards & Vulnerability’ (O’Hare, 2021) Table 7. Greater Manchester resilience priorities Greater Manchester Combined Authority, (2020). Greater Manchester Resilience Strategy 2020 - 2030. [online] Manchester. Available at: <https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov. uk/media/4542/greater-manchester-resilience-strategy-2020-2030.pdf> [Accessed 21 March 2022].

Table 8. Disaster Resilience, Critical Evaluation. Authors Own, (2022) Table 9. Sustainable Economy, Critical Evaluation. Authors Own, (2022) Table 10. Community, Critical Evaluation. Authors Own, (2022) Table 11. Health and Wellbeing, Critical Evaluation. Authors Own, (2022) Table 12. Strong Ecosystems, Critical Evaluation. Authors Own, (2022) Table 13. Infrastructure Resilience, Critical Evaluation. Authors Own, (2022) Table 14. Policy, Critical Evaluation. Authors Own, (2022) Table 15. Strategy, Critical Evaluation. Authors Own, (2022)

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Sam Morman 160006076 University of Dundee 2022 Sustainability in Contemporary Cities UP52003 MArch with Urban Planning

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