HOUSTON HOUSING OUTLOOK Company Overview Consumer Insights Top Amenities by Generation The Truth About Mortgage Underwriting
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ConsumerInsights What Do You Call Home?
NATIONWIDE SAMPLE
Consumer research in the real estate world is often overlooked because it is difficult and expensive to conduct. However, understanding what home buyers value is critical, given the market climate and competitive field today. Our third annual Consumer Insights report couples our timely market research with qualitative findings from our proprietary “What Do You Call Home?” survey to provide better information on consumer marketing strategies for your communities.
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Over 22,000 responses are collected across the nation annually. We have access to over 50,000 total responses in our past survey database.
PARTNERS
Builders, developers, and Zillow joined in the effort nationwide by sending an e-mail to their prospective shoppers.
E-MAIL SURVEY
Our survey includes over 100 questions and several hundred variables regarding shoppers’ opinions on their next home and community.
Insight Customized to Increase Your Bottom Line Consumer Insights is a “focus-forward� study so that real estate practitioners can use this information to make strategic decisions moving forward. The information can be customized to meet your needs.
GEOGRAPHIC
We understand that geography affects consumer preferences. Responses can roll up to a national or regional level or drill down to the MSA or submarket level.
PRICE POINT
We understand that affordability is different for each new home shopper. Respondents were asked their desired price point and payment in their next home; our report can be filtered accordingly.
GENERATIONS & LIFESTAGE
We understand that lifestage impacts purchasing behaviors. Reports are available specifically for 55+ and the millennial buyers.
Fantastic Insight On: HOME To learn more about how you can better develop your next community, marketing strategy, or new product design, please contact:
Kitchen Bathroom Private outdoor living Great space Architectural style Yard preferences Specifications & Technology
MOLLIE CARMICHAEL Principal
COMMUNITY
mcarmichael@realestateconsulting.com (949) 870-1214
Community amenities Lifestyle
INTERIOR STYLE
Interior style preferences Exterior style preferences Interior specifications Texture Color
ATTITUDES
How they live How they shop What they value
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Consumer
Insights
Top Amenities Check out what 22,000 new home shoppers shared as the amenities they most wanted in their next community. Below are the top 25 preferences by generation. The major differences relate to the presence of children for the younger generations.
Boomers
Born 1946 to 1964
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Gen X
Born 1965 to 1979
Gen Y
Born 1980 to 2000
*
Grocery Store Close By
Grocery Store Close By
Grocery Store Close By
Restaurants Close By
Restaurants Close By
Restaurants Close By
Walking Trails
Walking Trails
Fitness Center
Fitness Center
Fitness Center
Walking Trails
Village Square
Recreational Center
Children’s Park
Shopping
Village Square
Shopping
Wi-Fi Internet Access in Public Areas
Shopping
Recreational Center
Community High-Speed Internet
Wi-Fi Internet Access in Public Areas
Recreational Center
Community High-Speed Internet
Community-Wide events
Shaded Areas
Shaded Areas
Children’s Park
Community High-Speed Internet
Organized On-Site Programming
Community-Wide events
Shaded Areas
Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, Bulletin Boards, etc
Organized On-Site Programming
Yoga/Pilates Studio
Running
Dog Park
Lake, Pond, Stream, and Water Elements, $50/Month
Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, Bulletin Boards, etc
Running
*
All three generations ranked Fitness Center and Walking Trails as top amenities above retail shopping.
Wi-Fi Internet Access in Public Areas
*
Wi-Fi Internet Access and a Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, etc. are more Village Square important to the Boomers than they are to Community-Wide events Gen X and Gen Y.
*
Community-Wide events rank above pools, parks, and other typical amenities. Events can be much less expensive too!
Children’s Water /Play Area
*
Look for our future trends in what consumers want in communities and homes by generation. We believe it starts with your consumers. 4
Today’s shoppers rated Service & Retail as the most important amenities for their next community purchase.
A Dog Park is among the top park choices. It scored highest for Gen Y, followed by the Boomers.
Consumer research in the real estate world is often overlooked because it is difficult and expensive to conduct. However, understanding what home buyers value is critical, given the market climate and competitive field today. Our third annual Consumer Insights report couples our timely market research with qualitative findings from our proprietary “What Do You Call Home?” survey to provide better information on consumer marketing strategies for your communities.
Gen X
Boomers
16 17
Gen Y
Born 1965 to 1979
Born 1946 to 1964
Born 1980 to 2000
Hiking Trails with Historical Markers of the Area
Tennis Courts
Live Music in the Park
Yoga/Pilates Studio
Sport Fields
Remote Guard Gate, $50/month
Sport Fields
Basketball Courts
Dog Park
Children’s Water/Play Area
Tennis Courts
Cycling
Hiking Trails with Historical Markers of the Area
Yoga/Pilates Studio
Open Space, $50/Month
Lake, Pond, Stream, and Water Elements, $50/Month
Hiking Trails with Historical Markers of the Area
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Amphitheater Outdoors
Dog Park
23
Adult-only Pool (18+)
Cycling
Art Shows in the Park
Basketball Courts
Lake, Pond, Stream, and Water Elements, $50/Month
Library
Live Music in the Park
Live Music in the Park
18 19 20 21
24 25
WATER
ADVENTURE
NATURE
ARTS &
ENTERTAINMENT
PARKS
Organized On-Site Programming
*
Events and experiences, as a whole, rank above “hard amenities” like a pool.
Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, Bulletin Boards, etc
Movies in the Park
REC CENTER
EVENTS
SERVICE & RETAIL
SPECIAL AMENITIES
Let us help! We can help optimize your community and home design for better homes, better places, and better profit. Please contact Mollie Carmichael at mcarmichael@realestateconsulting.com or (949) 870-1214. WWW.REALESTATECONSULTING.COM
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Analysis Houston, TX Houston Analysis* • New home sales activity meets with expected seasonal slowdown. This slowdown has ranged from a negligible decline at the most desirable communities to slightly more pronounced declines at communities in less than ideal locations or price ranges. Slowing activity has also been due in part to little completed inventory. Keeping spec inventory and finding affordable replacement lots in desirable locations remain fundamental challenges for Houston builders.
• Strong executive job growth drives new custom home development, especially in submarkets that serve the Energy Corridor and The Woodlands/ Springwoods (Exxon). Frankel Building Group and McVaugh Custom Homes have each announced new high-end communities that will offer LEED-certified homes. *Based on Sept 2014 Data
• Finished lot inventory remains limited. Demand continues to outpace supply in Houston, and developers cannot produce enough lots to keep up with the home buying activity. As a result, buyers who have been on the fence have started to feel more compelled to make a move, knowing that price escalation will remain in the market for the foreseeable future. • Incentives hold steady. Most builders continue to offer incentives in the 2.5% to 4.0% range of base pricing. Incentives have been relatively steady throughout 2014 despite the strong demand. • North and northwest submarkets remain the strongest. While the west and southwest submarkets continue to produce strong sales activity at masterplans such as Cinco Ranch, Riverstone, Cross Creek Ranch, and Aliana, the north and northwest suburbs have been the strongest in Houston. Demand continues to increase in these two submarkets, boosted by the proximity to Exxon’s new Woodlands campus, and we anticipate accelerating, exceptionally strong activity there over the next 18–24 months. • Luxury apartments and high-end custom homes are also thriving. Demand for these two products types has been very strong in Houston. The metro area has experienced extremely strong net absorption for luxury apartments over the past 12 months, and rents continue to climb at robust rates. Investors are extremely interested and are active in this market at an unprecedented level. Several new apartment units are also expected to come online this year. 6
Paige Shipp Sr. Manager Consulting
Local insight was provided by Paige Shipp, Consulting. For further information, on our research please contact Paige at pshipp@realestateconsulting.com.
Market Trends Metro Analysis and Forecast* Housing Cycle Risk Index
HCRI Legend
Our HCRI is a 1–2 year leading indicator for home price appreciation/depreciation. Improving markets (rising prices and rising construction) make the market riskier and vice versa. *Based on a three-month trend
Demand
*Actual results will vary from projections and the variation can be significant. We assume no liability for the use of any of the data or projections in this report. Projections as of: Sept 2014
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About Us John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC) helps executives make informed housing industry
decisions. Our passionate team of analysts and consultants from around the country helps our clients identify the best risk-adjusted investment opportunities. We are known for:
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Client Resources John Burns CEO
Rick Palacios Director of Research
Lisa Marquis Jackson Business Development
Steve Dutra Data Management
Regional Offices Sacramento, CA Dean Wehrli
Chicago, IL Lance Ramella
New England Jody Kahn
Irvine, CA Mollie Carmichael
Washington, DC Dan Fulton
San Diego, CA Pete Reeb
Atlanta, GA David Kalosis
Don Walker
Dallas, TX Ken Perlman
Paige Shipp
Boca Raton, FL Lesley Deutch
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The Truth about Mortgage Underwriting by Lisa Marquis Jackson, SVP The world is awash in inaccurate sound bites related to mortgage credit. We spoke with numerous industry executives and identified three truths that need to be clarified: 1. Low income buyers actually have it easy. Buyers with poor credit and low income are finding it quite easy to buy a home below the FHA limit. 2. Many affluent buyers find it very difficult. Automated underwriting prevents many highly qualified borrowers, especially affluent retirees, selfemployed, or commissioned salespeople from getting a mortgage because their income situation does not fit squarely in the credit box.
the rich. While the Dodd-Frank rules were written with good intent, let the truth be known, so more first-time buyers can take advantage of current programs to buy homes. Let the bankers use good judgment again, so more affluent buyers can get a mortgage. EASY MONEY THROUGH FHA FHA federally insures 95%+ loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage loans made to people with poor credit and low incomes.
3. Industry executives are unintentionally preventing a recovery. Mortgage industry executives lobbying for the good old days where FHA limits were higher, fees were lower, and documentation was easier need to stop whining because they look very unreasonable to regulators and politicians who are not sympathetic. Our purpose here is to shed some light on what is actually happening—because if there were clarity around this, we would have: 1. More entry-level home buyers. Many qualified people are not even shopping for a home because they presume they cannot get a mortgage. We provide several examples of easy qualification below. 2. More affluent home buyers. More good loans to very qualified buyers would be made if underwriters were allowed to use good business sense rather than fill in automated forms. As we did our research, we heard many stories of buyers reluctantly paying cash or deciding not to move at all and telling their friends who then also elect not to move. These include business owners, retirees, and commissioned salespeople. 3. More relocating home buyers. Many relocating employees are renting simply because they cannot provide historical pay stubs at their new employer. Given their track record of steady employment and desirability to multiple employers, does that make any sense? In the aftermath of the housing crisis, the reality is that we are lending aggressively to the poor and conservatively to 10
Here are three recently approved loans, all through FHA or VA: 1. Recent foreclosure. 96.5% loan on a $170,000 house to a couple with $36,000 in income, a foreclosure three years ago contributing to their 620 FICO score, and debt service equal to 55% of their gross income 2. 57% of income needed to pay debts. 96.5% loan on a $165,000 home to a couple with $38,000 in income, a 642 FICO score, and debt service equal to 57% of their gross income 3. Fixed income and disabled. 100% loan on a $160,000 home to someone permanently disabled with a 601 FICO score and a $34,000 fixed income TIGHT MONEY ABOVE FHA LIMITS Affluent commissioned salespeople, self-employed, newly employed, and retirees who don’t have steady paychecks have tremendous difficulty getting a mortgage because they either:
• report inconsistent income to the IRS, • cannot provide extended income history from a new employer, or • do not have sufficient current income to qualify but are trying to keep some cash in the bank or delay paying taxes on an IRA distribution. Here are six borrowers who were denied a mortgage: 1. 27% LTV. A couple with a 780 FICO score who wanted a $300K loan on a $1.1 million house and would have $300K in reserves after closing, but whose verifiable income was only 30% above the proposed mortgage payment. 2. 801 credit score. Newly retired couple with fantastic 801 credit score, $1 million in retirement accounts, and $400,000 in savings after they were going to put down $350,000 on a $550,000 home purchase, but whose Social Security income was less than double the proposed mortgage payment. 3. Affluent business owner. Owners of a small retail business who were turning the business over to their children to manage, with the intent of collecting dividend income; who had $500K in cash savings and wanted a 50% LTV. 4. Relocating borrower. A US citizen who has been working overseas takes a job in the US, has a 700 FICO, 20% down payment, and plenty of reserves, but cannot produce a W-2 because he does not exist in the country in which he was working and hasn’t started his new job yet. 5. New employee. A prospective borrower qualified in every way except she had only been in her current job for five months and had worked in the family business previously where she did not get a W-2. 6. Loan = 15% of applicant’s assets. A retiree who wanted a 50% LTV and had assets six times the proposed loan amount was turned down and eventually paid cash.
down, you were pretty much looking at an FHA loan. During this period, it’s fair to say that sales were being seriously impacted by 20%+. Slowly at first, and now more rapidly, things are changing. Credit requirements for 95% conventional financing are as low as 620, and MI companies have lowered premiums and relaxed guidelines. Banks have been peeling back overlays. You aren’t likely to get a conventional loan with a ratio above 45% anymore, but nor could you really get that back in the 90s either.” • Disposable income is more important than gross income. “Our industry needs to focus more on disposable income versus debt-to-income ratios, meaning a borrower who makes $2,200 a month with a 40% debt-to-income ratio is more risky than someone who makes $12,000 a month with a 50% debt to income ratio. The first borrower has very little cushion after income taxes, utilities, car insurance, food, etc. for emergencies. But the person making $12,000 a month would have much more left over after all of these other debts.” • Stated income should have its place. “There is a time and a place for Stated Income, not “No Doc” loans, but Stated Income loans. They were a great tool back in the 2000s that rarely went bad if they were used properly because the borrower had a lot of their own capital invested in the home.” • Income is the problem. “The challenge is not credit based, it’s income based. Home valuations have increased at a steeper trajectory than income. Also, the new buyer pool is saddled with student loans and other debt, which has really created the (disposable) income issue. I believe credit is much more accessible than the media/public portrays (in terms of credit scores, LTV’s, etc.) My opinion will remain our immediate challenge is income/debt/ DTI.” SUMMARY
MORTGAGE INDUSTRY VETS TELL IT LIKE IT IS
In conclusion, let’s:
We expect the borrowers and outcomes profiled above will be surprising to many. We also want to share the following sound bites from mortgage industry veterans to offer surprising clarity on other areas of debate:
• Get the word out that loans below the FHA limit are readily accessible, with monthly payments that are a great historical value in comparison to gross incomes.
• Loans today are easier than the 1990s. “For the average borrower, I believe it was more difficult to qualify for a mortgage in the 1990s.” • Huge improvements are being made in conforming loans. “For a while, if you didn’t have a credit score over 720 and you wanted a loan with less than 20%
• Let the bankers use manual underwriting in instances where they can document that the loan has a very low likelihood of losses.
Lisa Marquis Jackson, SVP (214) 389-9003 lmjackson@realestateconsulting.com 11
50
Top
Master-Planned Communities of 2013 2013
2012
YOY% ∆
Villages of Lake Sumter, LLC
3,419
2,851
20%
THE IRVINE RANCH1 Orange County, CA
The Irvine Company
1,444
1,434
1%
4
CINCO RANCH Katy, TX (Houston)
Newland Communities
854
982
-13%
5
MOUNTAIN'S EDGE Las Vegas, NV
Focus Property Group
841
948
-11%
10t
NOCATEE Ponte Vedra, FL (Jacksonville)
The PARC Group
838
508
65%
7
RIVERSTONE Houston, TX
Johnson Development Corp.
791
605
31%
6
PROVIDENCE Las Vegas, NV
Focus Property Group
726
760
-4%
3
THE WOODLANDS Houston, TX
The Woodlands Development Company
649
1,007
-36%
8
LAKEWOOD RANCH Sarasota, FL
Schroeder-Manatee Ranch, Inc.
618
573
8%
13
ALAMO RANCH2 San Antonio, TX
Galo Properties
600
500
20%
10t
STAPLETON Denver, CO
Forest City
570
508
12%
14
SUMMERLIN Las Vegas, NV
The Howard Hughes Corporation
566
471
20%
28
CROSS CREEK RANCH Houston, TX
Johnson Development Corp.
509
301
69%
16
LAKE NONA Orlando, FL
Tavistock Group
475
441
8%
2012
1
1
THE VILLAGES The Villages, FL (Central FL)
2
2
3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15
N/A
ALIANA Houston, TX
Aliana Development Company
464
304
53%
16
24
WOODFOREST Montgomery, TX (Houston)
Johnson Development Corp.
457
308
48%
14
Net Sales
Developer
2013
4
18
SIENNA PLANTATION Houston, TX
Johnson Development Corp.
445
387
15%
CANYON LAKES WEST Cypress, TX (Houston)
Land Tejas Companies
378
190
99%
18
N/A
19
15
BRAMBLETON Ashburn, VA (Washington)
Soave Enterprises
373
466
-20%
31
VALENCIA Los Angeles, CA
FivePoint Communities
372
282
32%
32t
FIRETHORNE Houston, TX
JDC/Firethorne
361
280
29%
N/A
RANCHO MISSION VIEJO
360
0
N/A
26
DAYBREAK Salt Lake City, UT
Kennecott Land
353
304
16%
50t
CANE BAY PLANTATION Charleston, SC
Gramling Brothers Real Estate & Dev.
341
214
59%
17
34
EAGLE SPRINGS Humble, TX (Houston)
Newland Communities
321
277
16%
20 21 22 23 24
25
12
Project Name & Location
Rankings
Rank Increased
1
Rank Declined
2
San Juan Capistrano, CA Rancho Mission Viejo, LLC
Irvine includes Cypress Village, Portola Springs, Stonegate, Woodbury & Laguna Altura Estimate
Project Name & Location
Developer
47
CANYON HILLS Lake Elsinore, CA (Riverside)
27
N/A
CRYSTAL FALLS
28t
Rankings
2012
Pardee Homes
308
223
38%
The Lookout Development Group
305
176
73%
29t
VALENCIA RESERVE Palm Beach, FL
GL Homes
299
292
2%
19t
SHADOW CREEK RANCH Houston, TX
Shadow Creek Ranch Development
299
362
-17%
22
MOUNTAIN HOUSE Tracy, CA (Central Valley)
Shea Homes
290
333
-13%
29t
VISTANCIA Phoenix, AZ
Sunbelt/Shea Homes
266
292
-9%
37
THE MEADOWS Castle Rock, CO (Denver)
Castle Rock Development Company
263
250
5%
19t
FISHHAWK RANCH Lithia, FL (Tampa)
Newland Communities
256
362
-29%
34
N/A
STONE RIDGE
Van Metre Homes
254
171
49%
35
48
ESTRELLA Goodyear, AZ (Phoenix)
Newland Communities
252
222
14%
N/A
DURBIN CROSSING2 Jacksonville, FL
Durbin Crossing LLC/Durbin Crossing N. LLC
250
212
18%
40
TERAVISTA Round Rock, TX (Austin)
Newland Communities
249
238
5%
38
N/A
PAVILION PARK AT GREAT PARK Irvine, CA
Five Point Communities
245
0
N/A
39
39
HASTINGS FARMS Queens Creek, AZ (Phoenix)
William Lyon Homes
244
242
1%
40
N/A
ONE LOUDOUN Ashburn, VA (Washington, DC)
Miller & Smith/North American Seksui House, LLC
243
75
224%
41t
35t
ST. CHARLES St. Charles, MD (Washington, DC)
St. Charles Companies
241
271
-11%
41t
41
VERRADO Buckeye, AZ (Phoenix)
DMB
241
233
3%
43t
42
HERITAGE WAKE FOREST Wake Forest, NC (Raleigh)
Ammons Development Group
235
232
1%
43t
N/A
WESTRIDGE Dallas, TX
D.R. Horton
235
197
19%
45
35
ROSEDALE Azusa, CA (Los Angeles)
Brookfield/CDG/Starwood Capital
234
271
-14%
46t
N/A
WESTHEIMER LAKES Katy, TX (Houston)
Land Tejas Companies
230
159
45%
46t
N/A
RIVERSTONE Naples, FL
GL Homes
230
188
22%
48
38
THE BRIDGES Delray Beach, FL (West Palm)
GL Homes
225
245
-8%
N/A
OAKHURST AT KINGSWOOD Houston, TX
Friendswood Development
224
221
1%
HIGHLANDS RANCH2 Denver, CO
Shea Homes
220
507
-57%
30 31 32 33
28t
2013
26
2012
YOY% ∆
2013
Net Sales
37
36
49
50
12
Leander, TX (Austin)
Aldie, VA (Washington, DC)
TOTAL
23,463
20,875
12%
SOURCE: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC, January 2014
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PAIGE SHIPP Senior Manager
(214) 389-9004
pshipp@realestateconsulting.com
With over 14 years of real estate and home building experience, Paige leads our Dallas consulting arm providing indepth knowledge of the Texas markets and business conditions. Her diverse experience includes land acquisition and development, land planning, home building, commercial real estate and residential sales. Prior to joining John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Paige served as a Project Director for Hines in Dallas-Fort Worth and Regional Vice-President of Land Acquisition and Development for Mercedes Homes. Additionally, she is a Licensed Broker in the State of Texas. Paige has been a PADI certified SCUBA diver since 2000 and her favorite destination is Bonaire. Though she has bravely explored the murky depths of the ocean at night and even dove with sting rays, Paige is still working up the courage to swim with sharks. EDUCATION Bachelor of Landscape Architecture from the University of Illinois AFFILIATIONS ULI - Full Member National Association of Realtors
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MOLLIE CARMICHAEL Principal
(949) 870-1214
mcarmichael@realestateconsulting.com
Mollie Carmichael is a Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. For over 25 years, Carmichael has helped companies increase profits dramatically by understanding the market and consumer first. She is passionate about guiding strategic planning decisions with consumer and market based methodologies in order to optimize financial results. Carmichael has led research efforts throughout the country on masterplan communities and individual neighborhood design where companies. In addition to managing various consulting assignments, Carmichael leads our firm’s Consumer Insights research to help our clients understand what consumers value in their homes and communities. She has led a national consumer survey for the last several years that has been launched to several million homeshoppers throughout the company. The survey effort is all about better understanding what consumers value and what they will pay for in their next community and home. It is the only survey of its kind today. Prior to joining the company, Carmichael served as a Vice President of Strategic Marketing for Lennar, Centex Homes, Pulte Homes/Del Webb and Vice President of Residential Product Planning at The Irvine Company, where she led strategic planning, target land acquisition strategies, acquisition and market study due diligence, consumer and product segmentation, quantitative and qualitative consumer research, competitive research, as well as tactical media planning, model and sales office merchandising. Carmichael has been quoted in various media publications including the Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, Reuters, Businessweek, and Professional Builder. She has been a speaker on Consumer Insights and innovative planning ideas throughout the country including PCBC, ULI, UBS, and other specific venues. AFFILIATIONS ULI – Community Development Council Building Industry Association 55+ Housing Council 15
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