Building Market Intelligence
Houston Dominates 2013 Top MPC Rankings Housing 13 of the Top 50 Master Planned Communities of 2013 Houston Market Health Analysis • Forecasts • Supply & Demand • Price Trends 1
What 2013 Tells Us About The Future BY JOHN BURNS, CEO
Year in Review 2013 was a very interesting year for housing and can be characterized by three periods:
2
1.
anuary through May boom. Sales were so strong that flippers J returned to the market. Home builders pushed prices high enough to intentionally slow sales because their construction crews couldn’t keep up with the pace of sales and were worried about running out of lots.
2.
une through August pause. The Fed’s hint that it would start J tapering gave rise to a spike in mortgage rates that put an end to the flippers and euphoria. This was a real positive for housing’s long-term prospects but a real negative for builder stock prices, which made the builders more cautious. The builders who pushed prices heaviest in May had to give some of the price increases back later in the year.
3.
eptember through December slowdown. The fiscal cliff debate scared S everyone and exacerbated the normal seasonal slowdown.
Our Business as a Leading Indicator
2014 Executive Outlook
Our business had a great year in 2013 and should give you some insight as to what to look forward to in 2014 and beyond.
2014 is off to a strong start, but executives are still cautious because of:
• L ook east for volume. Feasibility studies in our offices in Georgia, Virginia, Illinois, Florida, Chicago, and Texas flourished as construction ramped in the East much faster than it ramped in the West. • M ore IPOs and M&A. We were involved in 24 deals that involved companies eventually going public or buying other companies. Some of those deals did not make it to the finish line, but many are likely to reemerge if the market picks back up as expected. Most of the action was near the coasts, which kept our California and New England offices extremely busy. We updated our Best Practices Compliance Certification to give our clients utmost confidence of confidentiality heading into 2014. • N ew master-planned communities. Money is finally flowing to future supply, based on the huge number of future MPCs we consulted on in 2013. This “surge” in supply will barely replace the existing MPCs that will sell out, so we expect housing demand to exceed supply for the foreseeable future. Expect the first wave of MPCs to maximize the odds of success by doing a lot of consumer research up front, choosing the right amenity package, and dictating builder architecture. • E xpensive land means detailed product and premium analysis. Land prices rose substantially (our finished lot index showed a 26% increase through Q3 2013), which is causing the new land owners to plan carefully to make sure they minimize mistakes. We partnered with 26 builder/developers and Zillow to survey 27,000 recent home shoppers on what they are looking for in their next home, and we are working with our partners and others to pick everything from exteriors to standard plumbing fixtures. • S marter building products and service companies. Materials and service providers are back and raising prices with a vengeance. Many of the building products companies have vowed never to get so removed from the consumer and builder again and are spending a lot of money to stay on top of changing market conditions. Since the building products companies will do well even if rates rise (presumably giving rise to more remodeling), they have a very confident outlook on the future.
• T he debt ceiling debate. Rather than solve the problem, elected officials kicked the can down the road until February. The last thing the industry needs is another fiscal cliff scare at the beginning of the spring selling season. • FHA changes. FHA’s significant loan limit reductions will eliminate FHA financing in a number of new home projects in 18 of the top MSAs, leaving builders to wonder just how many sales will be lost. • Government policies. Janet Yellen as the new Fed Chair and Mel Watt as the new FHFA Director are viewed positively, but the impact of the QM implementation on January 10 brought another market uncertainty. The Fed’s unwinding of their huge securities-buying strategy also makes everyone nervous. All in all, 2013 was a much better year than most people planned, with more price appreciation than expected and lower sales volumes. Our February 2013 forecast was for: • 9 .3% resale price appreciation, and it looks like the actual will come in around 10.4%. • 4 72K new home sales (a growth of 29%), and the first 11 months of this year have averaged 434K (18% growth). In 2014, we expect less price appreciation and similar volume growth. Stay tuned!
John Burns, CEO (949) 870-1210 jburns@realestateconsulting.com
3
Analysis
Houston, Texas March 2014
Houston Analysis • N ew homes sales activity very strong. Solid traffic and sales activity continued in Houston’s new home communities over the past month, with many communities performing exceptionally well in the 4–6 range, up from about 3 homes per community the previous month. Builders report traffic is solid to very busy. • A vailable finished lots are still an issue. Most builder representatives we spoke with said that lack of finished lots in desirable locations is something they struggle with or anticipate being a problem. This is already disrupting sales volume Builders said they could have sold more homes if more lots were available. • F ortunately, more finished lots are in the pipeline. Almost every month builders and developers announce a new 1,000-lot-plus master-planned community in an effort to close the gap between the supply of finished lots and builders’ demand. The latest is Hillwood Communities’ Pomona, south of Houston in Manvel, Brazoria County, a partnership between Hillwood (a Perot Company) and local builder McGuyer Homebuilders. Hillwood has been aggressively acquiring large parcels for new master-planned developments throughout the state. • N ew home prices are gradually rising, and incentives are stable. Most communities report some price increases so far this year, generally by 1% to 3%. Incentives remain relatively stable at most new home communities. • E mployment growth is still strong. New jobs continue to fuel demand and are largely responsible for making Houston number-one metro area for home starts over the past year. Occidental Petroleum, which is focused on drilling in West Texas’ Permian Basin, is relocating its headquarters to Houston from Louisiana.
4
Sean Fergus Manager Research
Paige Shipp Sr. Manager Consulting
This market summary was authored by Sean Fergus, Research. Local insight was provided by Paige Shipp, Consulting. For further information, please contact Sean at sfergus@realestateconsulting.com or Paige at pshipp@realestateconsulting.com.
rner: Houston
Market Trends
Houston, Texas March 2014
Current Market Conditions: Conditions: Warm Current Market Warm
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Warm JAN FEB
MAR
“
Houston, Houston, TX TX Supply
Trends
Affordability
Housing Cycle Risk Index Housing Cycle Risk Index Housing Cycle Risk Index
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An Objective Measure Comparing the Demand, Market’s Demand, An Objective Measure Comparing the Market’s Supply, and Affordability Fundamentals Supply, and Affordability Fundamentals to Historyto History
markets (rising rising construction) Improving Improving markets (rising prices andprices rising and construction) a three-month average make the market and vice versa. make the market riskier andriskier vice versa.
Warm
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JAN
JAN
FEB
FEB
MAR
MAR DEC
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Consultant’s Corner: Houston Consultant’s Corner: Houston
March 2014 Trends Market March Market Fundamentals: Very2014 Low Risk, Weakening*
DEC
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2013 2012
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2013
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Great fundamentals; Great fundamentals; Jan Very low risk Very low risk Above average Above average fundamentals;fundamentals; Low risk Low risk
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5
85,000
150
80,000
145
KeyKeyStatistics Stats
75,000
140
70,000
135
65,000
Houston, Texas March 2014
130
60,000 55,000
125
Price Trend and Cyclical Risk Key Stats Price Trend and Cyclical Risk
Demand
Burns Home Value Index
Houston, TX
150 145 140
85,000
Price Trend and Cyclical Risk Burns Home Value Index
130 145 125 140 135
al Risk
clical Risk B
Stats
d and Cyclical Risk
(2)
(2)
70,000 W&S 65,000
110,000
55,000
120,000 100,000
100,000 120,000 80,000
90,000
Burns Home Value Index
Change
% Change
A-147.1
0.2
0.1%
A-
n/a
n/a
B+ 80,999 Current
80,826 173 (1) Ago Month Change 0.2% % Change
81,100 147.3
82,000 147.1
Resale Est. Months of Supply Housing Cycle Risk Index
2.7 B+
2.6 A-
New Home Supply
Supply
C+
A-B New Home Supply 34,657 Single Family Permits Resale Sales (12-Months) 80,999 Employment Growth
34,507 80,826
81,100
Resale Est. Months of Supply
(1)
-9000.2
-1.1% 0.1%
0.1 n/a
3.8%n/a
C+ 150173 -900
-1.1%
34,657
(1)
C+
2.6
0.1
3.8%
34,507
150
0.4%
(2)
Actual results will vary from projections and the variation can be significant. We assume no liability for the use of any of the data or projections in this report. Projections as of
Current
Month Ago
Change
% Change
147.3
147.1
0.2
0.1%
80,000
(1)
Historically low permits are considered an ‘A’ because supply levels are low, which is a positive characteristic for a market.
Housing Cycle Risk Index B+ An/a (2) (1) n/a (1) Historically low permits considered an Resale Sales Volume grade isare based on a Metric Current Month Ago C+ Change % Change New Home Supply B because levels are low, which is ratio of‘A’ sales to thesupply number of households. Resale Sales (12-Months) 80,999 80,826 173 0.2% a positive characteristic for a market. 3.0%) Burns Home Value Index 147.3 147.1 0.2 0.1% (1) Historically low permits are considered an Metric Current 82,000 Month Ago Change % Change 1. Arrows Historically low permits arewas considered an ‘A’ Employment Growth 81,100 -900 -1.1% from ‘A’ because supplyindicate levels arechange low, which is what Housing Cycle Risk Index B+ An/a n/a Burns Home Value Index
Resale Est. Months of Supply Resale Sales (12-Months) Housing Cycle Risk Index Single Family Permits Resale Sales (12-Months) Employment Growth
(1)
0.4% 0.2%
82,000
2.7
New HomePermits Supply B Single Family
W&S Growth: 81,100 (3.0%)
90,000 110,000 100,000 80,000
Month Ago
Actual results will vary from projections and the variation can be significant. We assume no liability for the use of any of the data or projections in this report. Projections as of: Mar.
110,000
Metric
SupplyCurrent
80,000
Employment Growth Burns Home Value Index
90,000 Employment Growth - YoY B+
Index™
Actual results will vary from projections and the variation can be significant. We
Resale Sales (12-Months) Metric
B
W&S Growth: 81,100 (3.0%)
A-
Single Family Permits
March 2014
Housing March 2014Cycle Risk Index
60,000 Estimated Months- of Supply B B+ Resale Employment Growth YoY
Resale Est. Months of Supply
90,000
Burns Home Value Index Months of Supply 147.3 Resale Estimated B
Growth: 81,100 (3.0%) Supply
Employment Growth
Supply
(2)
75,000 Employment Growth - YoY
A-
Resale Estimated Months of Supply 110,000 Houston, TX
B
Houston, MetricTX
85,000
120,000
s
(2)
Resale Sales - 12-Month Totals
Resale (12-Months) Home Supp B Sales New
W&S Growth: 81,100 (3.0%)
100,000 120,000
90,000
55,000 80,000
B+
Housing March 2014Cycle Risk Index
Supply
80,000 100,000
60,000
Burns Home Value Index
Growth YoY B+ Resale Employment Estimated Months of -Supply
Demand
Demand
March 2014 Houston, B TXNew Home Supply Metric
W&S Growth: 81,100 (3.0%)
110,000
B
Resale Sales - 12-Month Totals
B
Houston, TX
Demand
Housing Risk Index™ Resale SalesCycle - 12-Month Totals
B
ndex
120,000 Demand
80,000
Houston, TX
55,000 Employment Growth - YoY
B+
110,000 Resale Estimated
B
90,000
60,000
A+ A A‐ B+ B B‐ C+ 85,000 A+ C A C‐ 80,000 A‐ D+ B+ D 75,000 B D‐ B‐85,000 70,000 F C+ 80,000 C 65,000 C‐ 75,000 D+ 60,000 D 70,000 D‐ 55,000 F 65,000
(2)
W&S
100,000
65,000
130
s
120,000
Resale Sales - 12-Month Totals
B
Housing Cycle Risk Index™ 125
EstimatedGro M B B+ Resale Employment
Demand
A+ A80,000 A‐ 75,000 B+ B 70,000 B‐ 85,000 C+ 65,000 C 80,000 C‐ 60,000 D+ 75,000 D 55,000 D‐ 70,000 F
Houston, TX
135 150
(2)
Resale Sales - 12-Month Totals Housing Cycle Risk Index™
B
147.3
2.780,999 B+
147.1
2.680,826 A-
34,657 34,507 80,999 80,826 81,100 82,000
Employment Growth
Resale Est. Months of Supply
Resale Est. Months of Supply
Single Family Permits
0.2
81,100
82,000
-900
2.7
2.6
0.1
34,657
34,507
150
2.7
34,657
2.6
34,507
0.1%
0.1 173 3.8%0.2% n/a n/a (2) 150 0.4%-1.1% 173 -900 0.2% 0.1 150
-1.1% 3.8%
3.8% 0.4%
(2) a positivereported characteristic a market. Resale Sales Volume grade is based on ais last for month. Values been because supply levelsmay arehave low, which
ratio of salesfor to the number of households. revised. characteristic a market.
Resale Sales Volume grade is based on a Resale Sales Volume ratio2. of sales to the number of households.
grade is based on a ratio of Arrows indicate change from what was sales to the number of households.
reported last month. Arrows indicate change from what was Values may have been revised. reported last month. Values may have been www.realestateconsulting.com Arrows indicate change from what was reported revised.
will vary from projections and the variation can be significant. We assume no liability for the use of any of the data or projections in this report. Projections as of: Mar. 2014
Single Family Permits
0.4%
Market Databeen Page 3revised month. Values may have www.realestateconsulting.com www.realestateconsulting.com
will vary from projections and the variation be significant. assume no no liability forfor thethe use use of any the data or projections in this report.inProjections as of: Mar. 2014 as of: Mar. 2014 l results willActual varyresults from projections and the variation can becan significant. WeWe assume liability ofofany of the data or projections this report. Projections Market Data Page 3
6
(1)
Historically low permits are considered an
a positive
Market Data Page 3
last
2%
40,000
0%
KeyKeyForecasts Forecasts -2%
20,000
Current YoYTexas Change: 7.5% Houston, March 2014
Key Forecasts Price Trend and Affordability 7.0%
5.0%
Price Trend and Affordability Houston, TX
Houston, TX
80,000 100,000
100,000 50,000
60,000 80,000
4.0
0
2.040,000 60,000 Underpriced Market
0% 4%
-2%
-100,000
20,000
CurrentCurrent YoY Change: BAI:Houston, 3.716.4%
Current YoY Change: 7.5%
1.0
Supply
1.0 -3.0 -1.0 -5.0 -3.0 -5.0
Chart scale cropped at -5
2014P
1.7 2014
1.7
13.0% 12.8% 13.6% -10.0% -11.1%
2013 Current 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
2013 Current 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2011
2011 2009
2009 2007
2007 2005
-5.0
-100,000
1999
-3.0
2001
-1.0 1991
-5.0
1.0
1999
-3.0
3.0
1997
-1.0
We assume no liability for the use of any of the data or projections in this report. Projections as
Employment Growth to Permit Ratio (E/P)
1997
1.0
1995
100,000 150,000 50,000 100,000 0 50,000 -50,000 0 -100,000 -50,000
1995
Employment Growth - YoY New Home Supply
3.0
1993
150,000
Employment Growth to Permit Ratio (E/P)
2005
-2.6%
2003
-3.6%
2003
1.1%
Supply and the variation can be significant. Supply Actual results will vary from projections
Employment Growth - YoY
Chart scale cropped
Actual results will vary from projections and the variation can be significant. We assume no liability for the use of any of the data or projections in this report. Projections as of: M
2001
2.7%
3.0
-1.0
2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P Current YoY3.3% Change: 17.9%1.1% 3.3% 3.1% 1.8% 13.0% 12.8% 13.6% -10.0% -11.1% 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
1993
1.7%
Employment G
2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P Current YoY Change: Current YoY3.3% Change: 17.9%3% 3.3% 3.1% 1.8% 1.1%
March 2014 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Chart scale cropped at -5 to better illustrate the variations between years
Current YoY Change: 3% 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P Current YoY Change: 3% YoY Change: 3.3% Current 3.1% 3.3% 1.8% 17.9% 1.1% 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 3.3% 3.1% 3.3% 1.8% 1.1% 13.0% 12.8% 13.6% -10.0% -11.1%
5.8 -2.6%5.8 .6%
3.0
Current YoY Change: 3%
Dec-14P Dec-15P Dec-16P Dec-17P Dec-18P Current BAI:16.4% 3.7 Current Change: 5.2 5.4 YoY 5.7 5.8 5.8 TX Houston, 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018PDec-18P Dec-14P Dec-15P Dec-16P Dec-17P Current YoY5.7 Change: 16.4% 5.2 5.4 1.1% 1.7% 2.7% -3.6% 5.8 -2.6% 5.8
7P Dec-18P .716.4% 5.8 Dec-17P Dec-18P 17P 2018P
Actual results will vary from projections and the variation can be significant.
Supply
Current BAI: 3.7
1991
-1.0%
13.0
Employment Grow
-100,000
20,000
2.0%
-2.6%
March 2014
1999
100,000 150,000 New Home 50,000 100,000 0 50,000 -50,000 0 -100,000 -50,000
0.0 20,000 40,000
Dec-17P Dec-18P
-3.6%
Employment New Home Supply Growth - YoY
8.0 Demand 10.0 100,000 Overpriced Market 6.0 Annual Resale Home Sales 8.0 4.080,000 100,000 6.0 2.060,000 Underpriced Market 4.0 80,000 0.0 40,000 2.0 60,000Underpriced Market
7P Dec-18P e: 7.5% % -1.0%
1.1%
Supply
150,000
Overpriced Annual Resale HomeMarket Sales Burns Affordability Index
5%
2.7%
1997
Demand
Demand
10.0
1.7%
Employment Growth - YoY
1997
-1.0%
1995
2.0%
1995
3.9%
1993
5.0%
13.0% 3.3% 2014
1991
7.0%
Cu 2014P 2014P
1993
Dec-14P Dec-15P Dec-16P Dec-17P Dec-18P
Burns Affordability Index
TX
2014PDec-15P 2015P Dec-16P 2016P 2017P 2018P Dec-14P Dec-17P Dec-18P Current 1.1% YoY Change: 16.4% Houston, 1.7% 2.7% -3.6% -2.6% 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.8 TX March 2014 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
1991
Dec-14P Dec-15P Dec-16P Dec-17P Dec-18P Current3.9% YoY Change: 7.0% 5.0% 2.0%7.5%-1.0%
Growth %
-50,000
0.020,000 40,000
0%
rdability
150,000 New Home Sup
6.0
-2% 2%
th %
New Home Supply Employment G
Overpriced Market Annual Resale Home Sales
2% 6%
bility
1.7%
8.0
4% 8%
asts casts
-1.0%
Demand
10.0 100,000
Burns Home Value Index YoY Growth %
6% 10%
2.0%
Annual Resale HomeIndex Sales Burns Affordability
Price Trend and Affordability
8%
3.9%
2014P
Demand
Burns Home Value Index YoY Growth % 10%
C
Dec-14P Dec-15P Dec-16P Dec-17P Dec-18P
Current E/P Ratio: 1.55
Chart scale cropped at -5 to better illustrate the variations between years
2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P Current E/P Ratio: 1.55 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.7 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 1.7
1.6
ll vary from projections and the variation can be significant. We assume no liability for the use of any of the data or projections in this report. Projections as of: Mar. 2014
Employment Growth to Permit Ratio (E/P)
1.6
1.0
www.realestateconsulting.com
0.7
Market Data Page 4 www.realestateconsulting.com
sults will vary from projections and the variation can be significant. We assume no liability for the use of any of the data or projections in this report. Projections as of: Mar. 2014
Market Data Page 4 Actual results will vary from projections and the variation can be significant. We assume no liability for the use of any of the data or projections in this report. Projections as of: Mar. 2014
3.0 1.0
7
PROPRIETARY INDICES
Housing Cycle Risk Index™ Index™: Our index of housing demand, supply and affordability fundamentals has foretold home price appreciation and depreciation by 1-3 years.
We are a leading US real estate research firm offering published research, custom consulting, and advisory services with a laser-sharp focus on the housing industry. We provide clarity and direction in the age of information overload to help our clients make better decisions in their business pursuits. Our team of more than 45 experienced housing analysts is heavily networked with builders, developers, and investors and is generating new relationships across the country everyday.
Burns Home Value Index™: Our home price index is 5 months more current than Case-Shiller and helped investors make decisions months ahead of the price increases that happened mid-year 2012. Burns Finished Lot Value Index™: Our land value index helps investors understand home builder market value in relation to book value. Burns Affordability Index™: Our index is the only measure that allows you to compare affordability across geographies over time.
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WWW.REALESTATECONSULTING.COM
5%
Capture Rate For Top Master-Planned Communities of 2013
The top 50 master-planned communities (MPCs) in the country accounted for 5.4% of 2013 new home sales. There were 23,463 new home sales in the top 50 master-planned communities in the country in 2013—a 12% increase over 2012.
To complete this analysis we connected with developer representatives at more than 100 master-planned communities nationwide. Everything is bigger in Texas, including its master-planned communities, and 2013 was no exception. This year’s list of top 50 masterplans included 17 from the state of Texas (one-third of all entries) and 13 from Houston alone. There were nine Florida masterplans in the top 50 in 2013, seven California communities, four Phoenix communities, and four Washington, DC masterplans. And while Las Vegas was represented by just three masterplans, all of them were in the nation’s top 20.
KEN PERLMAN, Senior Vice President JODY KAHN, Senior Vice President
Detailed rankings can be found on the next page. • D elayed lot deliveries slowed builders’ sales. The spike in demand for finished lots in late 2012 and early 2013 left developers scrambling to deliver. Bottlenecks emerged in planning and approval processes, as engineers and jurisdiction offices were overwhelmed and labor shortages slowed site work. Some local developers still lack development financing, which slowed their progress. Without enough lots to build on, builders’ sales declined. Brambleton in Washington, DC and The Woodlands in Houston both report lower 2013 home sales, yet demand remains strong. • B uilders intentionally limited sales and raised prices in the first half of 2013. Many California, Southwest, Florida, and Texas builders were restricting sales and bumping prices regularly in the first half of 2013. In some cases, the builders were rationing lots they couldn’t replace.
• Newland Communities has five of the nation’s top 50 in 2013, the most of any individual developer. The San Diegobased developer’s masterplans were located in four different metro areas, easily making them the most geographically diversified developer in the country. Houston-based Johnson Development was represented by four masterplans in the top 50, and Sunrise, FL-based GL Homes and Shea Homes in Walnut, CA both had three.
• N ew home sales cooled in the second half of 2013. Our proprietary builder survey has revealed slowing sales and weaker pricing beyond seasonal expectations since September. The impact of the government shutdown in October was especially significant in the Northeast corridor from Baltimore to Virginia Beach. However, no region was immune to the pause in the housing market as buyers assessed the impacts of higher rates and home prices.
Waning lot supplies and development delays contributed to lower sales in some communities. 2013 sales were lower than 2012 volume in 13 of the top 50 master-planned communities, or 26% of the communities. Reduced sales were most common in Houston, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Washington, DC, while most Florida and Southern California MPCs enjoyed increased sales. Our conversations with the community developers revealed several factors that slowed new home sales:
Many new master-planned communities join our top 50 ranking. Each of the master-planned communities in the top ten have been in our ranking before; however, over 20% of our top 50 communities are new to the ranking this year. We expect that some of these new communities will rise in the ranking as they gain momentum and older communities reach completion. Next year’s master-planned community ranking will surely bring a new round of conclusions and perhaps some surprises.
• S ome communities are winding down. Examples of former “hot” master-planned communities that are nearly out of lots include Telfair on Houston’s southwest side, Otay Ranch on San Diego’s south side, and Power Ranch in Phoenix. New home sales declined by 6275% in these communities in 2013, and they no longer appear in our top 50 ranking. Several Northern California communities similarly dropped from the top 50 this year.
Tracking builder activity can yield timely insights. We identified a small but growing trend of MPC developers who do not track the builders’ activity in their community. As the housing recovery progresses, developers who are not tracking builders’ sales and inventory will not have a good read on when to develop more lots. In addition, these developers are more likely to miss the early signs of weakening home prices when sales slow and inventory rises. 9
50
Top
Master-Planned Communities of 2013 2013
2012
YOY% ∆
Villages of Lake Sumter, LLC
3,419
2,851
20%
THE IRVINE RANCH1 Orange County, CA
The Irvine Company
1,444
1,434
1%
4
CINCO RANCH Katy, TX (Houston)
Newland Communities
854
982
-13%
5
MOUNTAIN'S EDGE Las Vegas, NV
Focus Property Group
841
948
-11%
10t
NOCATEE Ponte Vedra, FL (Jacksonville)
The PARC Group
838
508
65%
7
RIVERSTONE Houston, TX
Johnson Development Corp.
791
605
31%
6
PROVIDENCE Las Vegas, NV
Focus Property Group
726
760
-4%
3
THE WOODLANDS Houston, TX
The Woodlands Development Company
649
1,007
-36%
8
LAKEWOOD RANCH Sarasota, FL
Schroeder-Manatee Ranch, Inc.
618
573
8%
13
ALAMO RANCH2 San Antonio, TX
Galo Properties
600
500
20%
10t
STAPLETON Denver, CO
Forest City
570
508
12%
14
SUMMERLIN Las Vegas, NV
The Howard Hughes Corporation
566
471
20%
28
CROSS CREEK RANCH Houston, TX
Johnson Development Corp.
509
301
69%
16
LAKE NONA Orlando, FL
Tavistock Group
475
441
8%
2012
1
1
THE VILLAGES The Villages, FL (Central FL)
2
2
3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15
N/A
ALIANA Houston, TX
Aliana Development Company
464
304
53%
16
24
WOODFOREST Montgomery, TX (Houston)
Johnson Development Corp.
457
308
48%
14
Net Sales
Developer
2013
4
18
SIENNA PLANTATION Houston, TX
Johnson Development Corp.
445
387
15%
378
190
99%
18
N/A
19
15
BRAMBLETON Ashburn, VA (Washington)
Soave Enterprises
373
466
-20%
31
VALENCIA Los Angeles, CA
FivePoint Communities
372
282
32%
32t
FIRETHORNE Houston, TX
JDC/Firethorne
361
280
29%
N/A
RANCHO MISSION VIEJO
360
0
N/A
26
DAYBREAK Salt Lake City, UT
Kennecott Land
353
304
16%
50t
CANE BAY PLANTATION Charleston, SC
Gramling Brothers Real Estate & Dev.
341
214
59%
17
34
EAGLE SPRINGS Humble, TX (Houston)
Newland Communities
321
277
16%
20 21 22 23 24
25
10
Project Name & Location
Rankings
CANYON LAKES WEST Cypress, TX (Houston) Land Tejas Companies
Rank Increased
1
Rank Declined
2
San Juan Capistrano, CA Rancho Mission Viejo, LLC
Irvine includes Cypress Village, Portola Springs, Stonegate, Woodbury & Laguna Altura Estimate
Project Name & Location
Developer
47
CANYON HILLS Lake Elsinore, CA (Riverside)
27
N/A
CRYSTAL FALLS
28t
Rankings
2012
Pardee Homes
308
223
38%
The Lookout Development Group
305
176
73%
29t
VALENCIA RESERVE Palm Beach, FL
GL Homes
299
292
2%
19t
SHADOW CREEK RANCH Houston, TX
Shadow Creek Ranch Development
299
362
-17%
22
MOUNTAIN HOUSE Tracy, CA (Central Valley)
Shea Homes
290
333
-13%
29t
VISTANCIA Phoenix, AZ
Sunbelt/Shea Homes
266
292
-9%
37
THE MEADOWS Castle Rock, CO (Denver)
Castle Rock Development Company
263
250
5%
19t
FISHHAWK RANCH Lithia, FL (Tampa)
Newland Communities
256
362
-29%
34
N/A
STONE RIDGE
Van Metre Homes
254
171
49%
35
48
ESTRELLA Goodyear, AZ (Phoenix)
Newland Communities
252
222
14%
N/A
DURBIN CROSSING2 Jacksonville, FL
Durbin Crossing LLC/Durbin Crossing N. LLC
250
212
18%
40
TERAVISTA Round Rock, TX (Austin)
Newland Communities
249
238
5%
38
N/A
PAVILION PARK AT GREAT PARK Irvine, CA
Five Point Communities
245
0
N/A
39
39
HASTINGS FARMS Queens Creek, AZ (Phoenix)
William Lyon Homes
244
242
1%
40
N/A
ONE LOUDOUN Ashburn, VA (Washington, DC)
Miller & Smith/North American Seksui House, LLC
243
75
224%
41t
35t
ST. CHARLES St. Charles, MD (Washington, DC)
St. Charles Companies
241
271
-11%
41t
41
VERRADO Buckeye, AZ (Phoenix)
DMB
241
233
3%
43t
42
HERITAGE WAKE FOREST Wake Forest, NC (Raleigh)
Ammons Development Group
235
232
1%
43t
N/A
WESTRIDGE Dallas, TX
D.R. Horton
235
197
19%
45
35
ROSEDALE Azusa, CA (Los Angeles)
Brookfield/CDG/Starwood Capital
234
271
-14%
46t
N/A
WESTHEIMER LAKES Katy, TX (Houston)
Land Tejas Companies
230
159
45%
46t
N/A
RIVERSTONE Naples, FL
GL Homes
230
188
22%
48
38
THE BRIDGES Delray Beach, FL (West Palm)
GL Homes
225
245
-8%
N/A
OAKHURST AT KINGSWOOD Houston, TX
Friendswood Development
224
221
1%
HIGHLANDS RANCH2 Denver, CO
Shea Homes
220
507
-57%
30 31 32 33
28t
2013
26
2012
YOY% ∆
2013
Net Sales
37
36
49
50
12
Leander, TX (Austin)
Aldie, VA (Washington, DC)
TOTAL
23,463
20,875
12%
SOURCE: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC, January 2014
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