The Summit Reaching Even Greater Heights June 13-14, 2013
Program
Presented By:
Welcome to Dear Client:
The Summit
Welcome to The Summit 2013. This is where the smartest people I know get together to discuss and debate how to invest in a very cyclical industry—housing. Each year we publish our view of the consensus, and last year we published five key conclusions: 1. Entitled raw land is the best investment. 2. Mortgage rates will rise to 5% by 2015, with securities investors projecting lower rates. 3. The risk of a downturn is very low. 4. Good job growth is more important than low interest rates. 5. National home prices should rise 3–4% per year. Collectively, I think we did a great job making accurate conclusions and giving everyone the assurance they needed to invest aggressively over the last year. As many of you know, The Summit is about making connections with very smart people so you can be more informed than everyone else. We purposefully engage an exclusive group of industry experts from our diverse client base in this interactive format—bringing forth timely topics that keep us connected to what is relevant, so that we walk away with something actionable. This year’s conference has been carefully planned to ensure you have a great experience. You can look forward to: –– Approximately 60 housing industry experts, including the senior team at our firm –– Six panel discussions and five roundtable discussions around timely housing topics –– Networking cocktail, lunch and dinner in an amazing location And, in keeping with our theme of making connections and staying informed, we have provided you with a Roku HD in your welcome bag. The Roku HD is a mobile streaming device that you can connect to any TV when you also have a simple WiFi connection. While at home or on the road, you can use Roku to access news like CBNC, Fox, or WSJ TV, or entertainment like Netflix, Hulu Plus, HBO GO, Spotify, MLB.TV, Crackle, or Pandora. In all, this mobile device gives you 750 channels, so that staying informed and making connections will be easy—whether you’re at home or on the road, including here at The Summit! Once again, welcome to The Summit 2013! I am glad that you are able to join us and hope that your experience is both rejuvenating and educational. Sincerely,
John Burns, CEO
Agenda
Day 1
Thursday, June 13, 2013 7:00 am 7:15 am 8:30 am 9:15 am 9:45 am 12:10 pm 1:10 pm 5:00 pm 5:30 pm 6:30 pm
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Continental Breakfast – Gallery Ballroom foyer Registration Opens – Gallery Ballroom Welcome & Introductions – Gallery Ballroom John Burns Presentation & Survey Panels & Roundtable Discussions Lunch – Studio Lawn South Panels & Roundtable Discussions Day 1 Summary Cocktails – Ocean Lawn Dinner – Pacific Lawn
8:15 am 8:15 am 9:15 am 9:45 am 12:10 pm 1:10 pm 5:00 pm 5:30 pm 6:30 pm 8:30 pm
Day 2 Friday, June 14, 2013 7:15 am 8:30 am 11:15 am 11:30 am
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8:15 am 11:15 am 11:30 am
Breakfast – Gallery Ballroom foyer Panels & Roundtable Discussions– Gallery Ballroom Summary, Wrap Up & Final Comments Adjourn
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Panel Discussions 1. PRIVATE EQUITY 2. LAND DEVELOPMENT How has investing changed since last year? Is it a Sustainable Business, or Do I Just Need to Time it Right? DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. Paul Fuhrman, Colony Capital 2. Tony Avila, Encore Housing 3. Gary Berman, Tricon Capital Group
DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. 2. 3. 4.
3. MORTGAGE INDUSTRY Mortgage policy, the Return of MBS, and Future Interest Rates DISCUSSION LEADERS:
Adrian Foley, Brookfield Residential Tom Hoban, Kitson & Partners Phillip Huffines, Huffines Communities Emile Haddad, Five Points Communities
1. 2. 3. 4.
Brian Hale, Stearns Lending Jeremy Radack, Radack & Associates Keri Findley, Third Point Lawrence Rufrano, Federal Reserve
4. T ODAY’S HOME BUYER 5. DEBT & EQUITY How Deep is the Demand? Is it a Moveup How does having Public Capital versus Market? What Differentiates New Homes? Private Capital change the game?
6. CONSTRUCTION What has changed with respect to land, labor, materials and regulation?
DISCUSSION LEADERS:
DISCUSSION LEADERS:
1. Doug Bauer, TRIPoint Homes 2. Rob Bowman, Charter Homes 3. Greg Schwartz, Zillow
DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. Jason Keller, Oaktree Capital 2. Matthew Zaist, William Lyon Homes 3. Ryan Mollett, GSO Capital Partners
1. Steve Hilton, Meritage Homes 2. Mark Boutelle, Illinois Tool Works 3. Eric Lipar, LGI Homes
Roundtable Discussions 1. LAND BUYING What are the right strategies in 2013? DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
Robert Vahradian, GTIS Alan Norris, Brookfield Residential Steve Benson, Community Development Capital Group Andy Carmody, Crescent Resources Rick Lafferty, Lafferty Communities Tom Orradre, Isles Ranch Partners Paige Shipp, JBREC Mollie Carmichael, JBREC Lesley Deutch, JBREC Ken Perlman, JBREC Pete Reeb, JBREC
3. GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES How to Make the Most Money. DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
Jay Moss, Woodside Group Dallas Tanner, Blackstone/Invitation Homes Chris Texter, KTGY Group Brian Nelsen, The Carlyle Group David Jackson, Kempner Capital Jay Kwan, International Partners Viva Hyatt, Sankaty Advisors Lisa Jackson, JBREC Susan Bloomfield, JBREC Lance Ramella, JBREC Nicole Murray, JBREC
2. ASSUMPTIONS How much price appreciation and cost inflation do I believe will occur? DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
Ben Williams, Brookfield Investment Management Gary Freeman, GEM Realty Capital Kevin Hackler, TPG Credit Management Tina Cruce, Tim Lewis Lisa Marquis Jackson, JBREC Dan Schwaegler, Starwood Capital Kev Zoryan, Morgan Stanley Don Walker, JBREC Steve Dutra, JBREC Sean Fergus, JBREC David Kalosis, JBREC
4. EXIT STRATEGY Top 10 Signs You Should Reduce Your Exposure to the Business – 10 Quantitative and 10 Anecdotal (write it down to speed up the process)
DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
Rich Ambrosini, D.R. Horton Tim Hogan, Hogan Edgcomb Consulting Megan Leahey, Fidelity Investments Jim Warmington, Jr., The Warmington Group Bret Kossman, Bank of America Nihar Shah, PFM Brandon Osmon, Hayman Capital Management David Hatch, Development Company Keith Tomlinson, Dominion Homes Nate Redleaf, Luxor Capital Kyle Corkum, Lstar Management
The Summit
Attendees
The Summit
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Meet Our Experts Trusted Analysis for Executive Decisions
PETE REEB Sr. Vice President Consulting
KEN PERLMAN Sr. Vice President Consulting
LESLEY DEUTCH Sr. Vice President Consulting
JODY KAHN Sr. Vice President Research
LANCE RAMELLA Sr. Vice President Consulting
WILL FRANK Senior Manager Consulting/Finance
CHRIS PORTER Senior Manager Consulting
PAIGE SHIPP Senior Manager Consulting
PAUL FAYE Senior Manager Consulting
GREG TSUJIMOTO Manager Consulting
CYNTHIA LAGUNA Manager, Accounting Finance
ADAM ARTUNIAN Sr. Research Analyst Research
KATHLEEN RIPLEY Senior Consultant Consulting
KRISTIN MATTHEWS Senior Consultant Consulting
MIKE WILLINGER Consultant Consulting
TORI MASSIE Research Analyst Consulting
ANDREW ANGELES Jr. Research Analyst Research
KATHY AYUYAO SAMANTHA WAGNER KRISTIN DELMASTRO Sr. Manager, Administrative Manager, Administrative Administrative Assistant Operations Operations Operations
JOHN BURNS CEO
DAVID KALOSIS Sr. Vice President Consulting
SEAN FERGUS Manager Research
ALI WOLF Research Analyst Research
JUDY JOBIN Administrator Business Development
DON WALKER President Consulting
MOLLIE CARMICHAEL Principal Consulting
DEAN WEHRLI Vice President Consulting
RICK PALACIOS JR. Manager Research
KYLE ZIERER Research Associate Consulting
LISA M. JACKSON Sr. Vice President Research
STEVE DUTRA Sr. Vice President Research
CHRIS CAGAN Vice President Research
SUSAN BLOOMFIELD Vice President Marketing
NICOLE MURRAY Vice President Consulting
ERIK FRANKS Manager, Info Mgmt Research
HOWARD TRAN Manager Marketing
KELLEY SANCHEZ Manager, Database Research
TED BEAM Production Editor Research
RAINA HEMRAJ Research Associate Research
ANDREW DURKEE Research Data Analyst Research
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