01.10.2012
Economic Forecast - Composite Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
LatAm Argentina
0.5
2.3
3.3
3
10.7
10.8
7.75
8.3
7.9
7.6
-0.35
-0.1
0.3
0.1
-1.5
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
USD/ARS
4.93
5.07
5.25
5.46
Brazil
2.8
3.7
4.3
4.1
5.3
5.55
5.7
5.3
Deposit 1DY Rate SELIC Rate
7.38
7.5
7.75
8.13
5.3
6
5.8
5.8
-2.4
-2.45
-2.45
-2.7
-1.95
-1.95
-1.95
-2.4
USD/BRL
2
1.98
1.95
1.95
Chile
4.6
4.75
4.4
4.55
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.4
Monetary Policy Rate
4.88
4.88
4.75
5
6.3
1.2
USD/CLP
485.5
482
483
475
Colombia
4.3
4.65
4.3
4.55
3
3
3.15
3.1
Deposit Rate
4.63
4.63
4.63
4.63
10.2
USD/COP
1800
1801
1782
1775
Mexico
4.85
USD/MXN
12.81 12.75 12.55 12.45
-2.5 11.05 10.65 4.8
4.7
10.2
-3.6
-2.7
-4.1
-4.5
-2
4.7
-1
-1
-1
-1.2
-1.4
3.3
3.05
3.3
3.4
4
4.2
3.9
3.7
Overnight rate
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.63
Peru
6
5.9
5.6
5.45
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
Reference Rate
4.25
4.13
4.13
4.25
Venezuela
4
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
25.3
27
29.4
29.6 Deposit Rate
Czech Republic
-0.2
2.3
3.3
3
2.9
2.4
2.35
2.3
2w Repo rate
0.38
0.5
0.5
0.5
8.7
9.3
8.5
8.6
-1.6
-0.9
-2.7
-2.7
Hungary
-0.4
0.2
0.6
1.2
5.35
3.95
3.9
3.8
Base Rate
6.5
6.25
6
5.88
10.95
11.7
11
10.8
2
1.5
1.3
1.3
Poland
1.7
1.6
1.95
2.3
3.25
2.8
2.6
2.7
Reference Rate
4.38
4
3.88
4
12.9
13.75
13
12.75
-4.3
-3.2
-2.6
-2.65
Slovakia
2.8
5.8
2
1.2
-2.8
4.77
4.87
4.93
4.96
5.77
5.87
6
6.11
USD/PEN 7
7.1
2.6
2.59
2.57
2.55
24.5
USD/VEF
Eastern Europe
0.7
1.1
2.45
3.05
3
2
2
2.45 Key policy rate
13.8
13.8
13.3
13.2
Russia
3
2.95
3.3
3.8
6.8
7.1
6.85
6.55 Refinance Rate
8.38
8.38
8.25
8.13
5.8
6.1
5.8
5.7
Turkey
3.1
3.4
3.15
4.35
6.5
6.5
6.9
6.8
1wk Repo Rate
5.88
5.75
5.75
5.75
9.1
9.1
8.9
8.8
1wk Repo Rate
6
6
5.5
5.5
Discount rate
2.13
2.13
2.25
2.5
Repo Rate
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
Iceland
0.9 4.62 -1
-2.1
-1.6
0.93 4.33
0.94 4.25
1.01 4.2
1.63
1.78
1.98
2.16
4.23
4.21
4.33
4.44
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.55
2.64
2.85
2.94
EUR/CZK
25
24.8
24.6
7.54
7.31
7.16
7.08
EUR/HUF
284
280
276
280
4.74
4.76
4.85
4.87
EUR/PLN
4.1
4.13
4.05
4.05
EUR/SKK
-1.7
USD/RUB 6.46
6.78
7.07
7.45
6
6.75
7.5
8
USD/TRY
31.35 30.98 30.97 31.21 1.8
1.76
1.75
1.75
USD/ILS
3.9
3.88
3.8
3.8
USD/ZAR
8.2
8
7.96
8.15
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
2.5
2.8
3.3
3.6
1.1
0.5
2
South Africa
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
5.2
5.3
5.2
5.5
-4.7
-5.05
-5.15
-5.3
5.07
5.08
5.07
5.11
4.74
4.92
5.36
5.61
6.91
7
7.09
7.22
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/BHD USD/EGP
6.14
6.21
6.26
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
0.28
0.28
0.27
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
3.64
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
3.75
3.75
3.75
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
3.67
3.67
3.67
Asia China
7.7
7.85
8.1
8.3
2.5
2.85
3.4
3.5
Hong Kong
3.2
3.3
3.45
4.25
2.4
3.6
2.95
4.25 Base Rate
Lending Rate
India
5.7
6.2
6.65
6.9
9.6
9.2
8.95
9.1
Indonesia
5.85
5.75
4.9
4.8
5.52
South Korea
2.8
3.35
3.3
3.6
2.25
2.5
2.9
3
Malaysia
4.05
4.2
4.3
5.2
2
2.4
2.65
2.7
BN Interbank ON
Phillipines
4.6
4.2
4.9
4.8
3.45
4.3
4.25
4.1
Repo Rate
Singapore
3.6
3.35
3.95
4.4
3.8
3.3
3
3
Taiwan
4.3
3.8
4
3.2
2.05
2.06
1.8
1.2
Thailand
15.1
5.2
4.4
4.55
3.6
2.7
3.7
3.5
Vietnam
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.75
9.3
5.88
5.88
5.88
5.88
4.15
4.25
4.2
4.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
Reverse Repo Rate
6.75
6.63
7
7
Reference Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.88
Base Rate
2.75
2.75
2.75
3
3.3
3.35
3.35
3
3
3.13
3.25
3
3.2
3.1
3.63
3.63
3.75
3.75
Discount Rate
1.88
1.88
1.88
2
Repurchase Rate
2.88
3
3
3.13
2.6 0.38 -3.1
Domestic IBOR rate
0.39
0.41
0.46
2.1
2
2
2.1
3.36
3.39
3.38
3.44
USD/CNY
6.32
6.3
6.27
6.22
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.23
1.18
1.43
1.47
USD/HKD
7.77
7.78
7.78
7.77
8
7.88
7.94
8.09
USD/INR
55
54
6.04
6.2
6.29
6.39
USD/IDR
9600
9613
9500
9446
3.21
3.34
3.45
3.35
USD/KRW
1120
1101
1096
1085
-2.9 4.92
4.82
4.8
4.78
3.35 8.6
9.7
9.8
53.25 52.75
3.17
3.2
3.36
3.4
3.66
3.68
3.74
3.73
USD/MYR
3.1
3.05
3.03
3
2.32
2.74
2.99
3.13
5.79
6
6.12
6.23
USD/PHP
41.5
41.3
41
40.3 1.21
2.25
2.3
2.2
2.2
0.39
0.41
0.48
0.55
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.25
1.75
1.8
1.96
2.13
USD/SGD
1.24
1.23
1.22
4.29
4.35
4.25
4.25
1.35
1.34
1.4
1.47
0.77
0.8
0.85
0.87
1.25
1.28
1.33
1.37
USD/TWD
29.6
29.4
29.1
29
2.96
2.98
3.07
3.18
3.1
3.34
3.56
3.64
3.71
USD/THB
31
30.8
30.45
30.2
Base Rate
USD/VND 21100 21200 21300 21500
G-10 USA
2
1.9
2.3
2.5
1.9
1.7
2
2.1
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
8.1
8.1
8
7.9
-3.2
-3.15
-3.2
-3.15
0.4
0.43
0.46
0.51
0.31
0.38
0.47
0.58
1.78
1.9
2.07
2.24
EUR/USD
1.27
1.26
1.24
Japan
0.5
1.15
1.2
1.5
0
-0.15
-0.1
0.1
BOJ overnight rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.6
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.87
0.94
0.99
1.04
USD/JPY
79
80
82
83
Euro
-0.45
-0.3
0.2
0.8
2.25
1.9
1.9
1.95 ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
11.45
11.5
11.5
11.4
1.1
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.31
0.35
0.39
0.45
EUR/USD
1.27
1.26
1.24
1.23
United Kingdom
0.38
0.38
0.5
0.5
8.25
8.3
8.4
8.3
-2.7
-2.7
-2.6
-2.6
0.65
0.64
0.67
0.72
0.32
0.45
0.57
0.79
1.81
1.99
2.15
2.29
USD/GBP
1.59
1.58
1.58
1.59
1
1
1.13
1.25
7.3
7.2
7.2
7.1
-3
-3
-3
-2.8
1.25
1.35
1.5
1.64
1.19
1.27
1.43
1.66
1.81
1.94
2.12
2.35
USD/CAD
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
5.2
-3.8
-4
-4.2
-4.5
3.42
3.4
3.42
3.55
2.76
2.86
3.06
3.34
3.18
3.3
3.47
3.73
USD/AUD
1.02
1.02
1.03
1.03
1.51
1.54
1.59
1.62
1
1.45
1.35
1.65
1.67
1.65
1.78
1.79
USD/SEK
6.62
6.74
6.81
6.86
2.78
2.93
3.15
3.45
4.14
4.21
4.34
4.5
USD/NZD
0.81
0.81
0.8
0.82
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.13
0.74
0.86
0.99
1.16
USD/CHF
0.95
0.96
0.99
1
USD/DKK
5.73
5.85
5.94
5.95
-0.1
0.5
1.5
1.2
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.2
Official Bank Rate
Canada
2
1.95
2.2
2.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.1
Overnight lending rate
Australia
3.2
2.7
2.8
3.15
2.5
3.15
3.2
2.7
RBA Cash Rate
3.25
3.13
3.13
3.25
5.4
5.45
5.35
Sweden
1.6
1.6
1.3
0.8
1.2
Decision Rate
1.13
1.13
1.13
1.25
7.6
8
8.3
New Zealand
2.8
2.4
2.85
3
1.9
1.9
2.2
2.5
Cash Rate
2.5
2.75
2.88
3.25
6.2
6
5.8
5.65
Switzerland
1.2
1
1.25
1.9
0.1
0.4
0.5
1
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
Denmark
-6.35
-6.55
-0.9
-7
-0.9
-5.9
-0.7
-6.5
-5.6
-0.5
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.1
Discount rate
Norway Germany
Reference Rate
-6.2
-7.55
Deposit Rate
1.5
1.63
1.63
1.63
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
6.8
6.8
6.75
6.7
6.2
5.9
5.7
1.8
1.95 ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
10.4
10.4
10.4
10.4
-2.2
-2.15
-2.2
1.75
2.05 ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
11
11.1
11.2
11.2
-0.8
-1
-1
1
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.9
France
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.9
1.85
1.7
Italy
-2.3
-1.35
-0.5
0.15
2.8
2.3
-2.5
Q.M.S Advisors | +41 (0)78 922 0877 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
1.23
2.08
2.24
2.31
2.42
USD/NOK
5.76
5.84
5.83
5.87
0.15
0.29
0.42
0.57
1.64
1.85
2
2.14
EUR/USD
1.27
1.26
1.24
1.23
0.5
0.95
0.95
0.6
2.7
2.85
2.91
3.07
EUR/USD
1.27
1.26
1.24
1.23
2.75
2.7
2.6
2.2
5.3
5.07
5.12
5.04
EUR/USD
1.27
1.26
1.24
1.23