10.07.2013
Economic Forecast - Composite Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14
Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14
LatAm Argentina
2.7
1.95
2.4
3
11
11
11
Deposit 1DY Rate
7.5
7.5
8.3
7.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.7
0.5
-0.3
-1
-0.5
-0.4
USD/ARS
5.58
5.85
6.14
6.53
Brazil
2.6
2.8
3
2.9
6.4
5.85
5.6
5.7
SELIC Rate
8.75
9
9
9
5.35
5
5.2
5.3
-2.9
-3.3
-2.8
-2.8
-2.75
-3
-2.8
-2.5
USD/BRL
2.15
2.11
2.12
2.16
Chile
4.9
4.8
5.3
5.3
2
1.9
2
2.4
Monetary Policy Rate
4.88
4.88
4.88
5
6.7
-8
-4.2
-0.5
-2.7
USD/CLP
500
500
503
505
Colombia
4.6
4.7
4.95
4.6
2.2
2.65
3.1
3
Deposit Rate
3.25
3.25
3.63
4
9.7
9.8
10.6
10.2
-3.1
-3.45
USD/COP
1895
1900
1882
1875
4.9
4.72
4.64
4.57
-1.1
-2.1
USD/MXN
12.5
12.4
12.17 12.24
-4
-3.3
USD/PEN
2.7
2.66
2.66
2.65
5.5
-1.7
USD/VEF 25.55
-2.2
Mexico
3.4
3.7
3.7
3.9
3.85
3.76
3.4
3.31 Overnight rate
3.88
3.88
4
4
Peru
5.85
6.55
6.7
6.4
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.7
4.25
4.25
4.5
4.63
Venezuela
0.9
1.35
38.8
35
Czech Republic
0.3
1.95
2.4
3
1.65
1.8
1.5
1.6
2w Repo rate
0
0
0.13
0.13
7.5
8
7.9
7.2
-1.9
-2.4
Hungary
0.2
0.9
0.75
0.8
2.65
2.8
3.3
3.4
Base Rate
4.25
4.25
4.25
4.38
10.6
10.85
11.6
10.95
3.9
2.3
Poland
1.3
1.75
2.1
2.5
0.8
1.2
1.8
2
Reference Rate
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.63
13.35 14.05 14.25
13.1
-3
-2.8
-2.7
-2.9
Slovakia
0.4
1.5
1.7
1.8
13.6
13.6
Russia
3.1
3.4
3.6
3.7
6.2
5.9
5.8
5.1
Refinance Rate
7.88
7.75
7.63
7.5
5.3
5.5
5.3
1.5
1.3
3.1
1.6
Turkey
3.8
4.3
3.55
4.35
6.75
6.3
5.7
6.25 1wk Repo Rate
4.63
4.75
5
4.88
8.9
8.9
1wk Repo Rate
5.5
5.75
1.63
1.75
2
2.38
7
7
7.1
7
5
4.88
4.88
4.75
25.05
25
24.85
24.7
Reference Rate Deposit Rate
-1.15
-1.25
-0.3
-1
5.1
5.09
4.62
5.7
5.67
5.89
5.91
Eastern Europe
Key policy rate
Iceland
5.55
0.4 2.65 -1.7
0.42 2.75
0.41 2.59
0.49 2.61
0.42
0.49
2.97
3.09
1.8
1.9
0.61 3.14
0.74 3.23
1.94
1.97
2.17
2.3
EUR/CZK
26
25.8
25.7
6.15
6.14
6.05
6.35
EUR/HUF
297
298
296
295
4.35
4.48
4.37
4.44
EUR/PLN
4.25
4.2
4.15
4.12
USD/RUB
32.5
32.3
32.17
32.3
USD/TRY
1.88
1.9
1.9
1.89
EUR/SKK
-3.5 6.21
6.33
6.5
6.32
6.5
6.64
7.35
7.64
7.53
7.88
8.45
8.84
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
3.8
4
4
4.1
1
1.7
0.4
1.9
Discount rate
South Africa
2.45
2.85
3.4
3.3
6.2
5.9
5.8
5.7
Repo Rate
-6.9
-6.6
-6.6
-6.7
4.99
4.86
4.88
4.88
6.02
5.71
5.79
6.02
7.73
7.78
7.62
7.71
USD/ILS
3.68
3.63
3.63
3.57
USD/ZAR
10.1
10.15
10
9.91
7.08
7.22
7.32
7.5
6.07
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
3.75
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
3.67
0.27
Asia China
7.7
7.6
7.7
7.7
2.8
3.1
3
3.1
Lending Rate
Hong Kong
3.2
3
3.75
4.3
4.9
4.1
3.8
3.7
Base Rate
India
5.4
5.9
6.1
6.25
8.95
8.55
8
Indonesia
6.4
6.4
6.43
6.47
6.1
6.25
5.33
South Korea
2.8
3.5
3.5
3.4
1.6
1.95
2.4
Malaysia
4.55
4.9
5.6
5.75
2.3
2.4
Phillipines
6.2
6.1
6.1
5.7
2.8
Singapore
3.7
3.85
3.85
3.5
Taiwan
3.15
2.9
3.8
Thailand
5.2
4
Vietnam
5.1
USA Japan
7.85 Reverse Repo Rate
6
6
6.13
6.13
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.4
6
5.88
5.75
5.75
5.33 Reference Rate
6.13
6.13
6.13
6.25
5.9
5.85
2.7
Base Rate
2.38
2.38
2.5
2.5
3.25
3.2
2.95
1.9
BN Interbank ON
3
3.13
3.13
3.25
3
3
3.35
3.8
3.9
Repo Rate
3.5
3.63
3.75
3.88
6.9
6.9
6.6
2.8
3.15
3
3.4
Domestic IBOR rate
2
2
4.1
0.65
1.8
1.35
1.7
Discount Rate
1.88
1.88
2
2.13
4.25
4.2
5.05
5.15
2.6
3
3.1
3.1
Repurchase Rate
2.5
2.63
2.75
2.75
0.6
0.5
5.2
5.45
5.6
6.4
6.3
7
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.9
1.5
1.5
1.7
2
2.9
3.3
4.1
-4.3
0.3
0.45
0.6
2.6
Euro
-0.6
0.1
0.6
0.9
1.4
1.3
1.35
United Kingdom
2.6
2.3 -4.7
-1.1
-1.2
2.9
2.85
9.6
9.7
6.5
3.3
1.8
2
2.05
17.5
17
4.1
4.1
3.3
2.1
-3.2
-1.8
-1.7
-1.6 0.4
-4.3 3.2
1.95
2.45
3.05
-2.9
-3.5
2.55
2.35
0.45
0.48
-5.3 4.91 -3.7
-3.9
17 3.7
0.41
3.8
5.24
4.92
3.08
3.11
3.12
3.17
3.53
3.57
3.59
3.68
USD/CNY
6.13
6.1
6.09
0.18
0.19
0.15
0.15
1.54
1.6
1.66
1.69
USD/HKD
7.76
7.77
7.77
7.78
7
7
7.25
7.25
7.52
7.51
7.52
7.54
USD/INR
57.7
57.45
57
57.75
6.68
6.51
6.5
6.42
USD/IDR
9989
9979
9948
9905
3.27
3.36
3.46
3.66
USD/KRW
1140
1133
1123
1100
4.92
3.18
3.25
3.29
3.33
3.71
3.75
3.78
3.79
USD/MYR
3.12
3.09
3.08
3.05
1.5
1.55
1.7
1.71
3.92
4.13
4.41
4.5
USD/PHP
42.5
42
41.6
41.8
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.4
0.3
0.31
0.35
0.44
1.99
2.02
2.12
2.27
USD/SGD
1.26
1.26
1.25
1.25
1.66
1.66
1.72
1.78
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.78
1.76
1.8
1.86
USD/TWD
30
30
29.85
29.4
2.74
2.81
2.81
2.83
2.9
2.8
2.92
2.92
3.32
3.52
3.48
3.55
USD/THB
30.55
30.4
30.05
29.9
6.82 Base Rate
USD/VND 21000 21000 21000 21250
G-10 Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
7.4
7.35
7.2
7.1
-2.7
-2.7
-2.7
-2.7
BOJ overnight rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4
3.95
3.95
3.9
1.1
0.8
1.3
1.4
-4.5
-4.5
-4.25
1.55 ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
12.25
12.3
12.3
12.3
1.7
2.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
8
8
7.9
7.85
-3
-3.15
-3.1
-3
-6.7
-6.8
-6.2
1
1
1.13
1.13
7.1
7.1
7
7
-2.75
-2.6
-2.55
-2.5
-0.8
-0.6
-0.5
2.63
2.5
2.5
2.63
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.7
-3
-2.8
-2.75
-2.6
1
1
0.88
0.88
8.3
8.3
8.15
7.9
-3.8
0.3
0.33
0.38
0.39
0.36
0.45
0.55
0.64
2.29
2.51
2.59
2.69
EUR/USD
1.28
1.27
1.26
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.12
0.14
0.15
0.17
0.87
0.91
0.98
1.02
USD/JPY
102
105
106
108
0.2
0.23
0.27
0.3
EUR/USD
1.28
1.27
1.26
1.25
-6.1
0.53
0.55
0.57
0.59
0.57
0.47
0.54
0.81
2.02
2.15
2.35
2.43
USD/GBP
1.51
1.5
1.49
1.5
-0.4
1.18
1.22
1.26
1.38
1.14
1.24
1.38
1.59
2.2
2.35
2.59
2.76
USD/CAD
1.03
1.04
1.04
1.02
0
2.63
2.64
2.71
2.81
2.45
2.47
2.62
2.84
1.17
1.16
1.16
1.27
1.65
1.65
0.6
1.2
1.3
1.5
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.45 Official Bank Rate
Canada
2
2.2
2.5
2.6
1.35
1.6
1.7
1.85 Overnight lending rate
Australia
2.5
2.65
2.7
2.8
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.5
Sweden
1.4
1.95
2.3
2.75
0.3
0.8
1.05
1.35 Decision Rate
New Zealand
3.2
2.8
2.8
2.9
1.5
1.95
1.9
2.3
Cash Rate
2.63
2.63
2.88
3.25
6.5
6.4
6.1
6
-5.2
-5.2
-5.3
-5.3
2.98
3.06
3.27
3.59
Switzerland
1.2
1.4
1.35
1.5
-0.2
0.4
0.6
0.9
Reference Rate
0.13
0.13
0
0
3.2
3.25
3.25
3.3
12.6
12.7
12.5
12.6
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.7
1.2
Discount rate
0.13
0.25
0.25
0.38
0.31
0.35
0.4
1.9
1.95
Deposit Rate
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.75
2.6
2.5
1.82
1.82
1.92
Denmark
RBA Cash Rate
6.4
Norway
2.7
2.95
Germany
0
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.6
1.7
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.8
7.3
7
France
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
0.7
1.1
1.15
1.3
1.5
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
11
11
11
11
-1.8
-1.9
Italy
-1.8
-0.7
-0.05
0.35
1.4
1.6
1.55
1.7
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
12.2
12.1
12.1
12
0.8
1.1
-1.9
-1.8
Q.M.S Advisors | +41 (0)78 922 0877 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
1.25
3.3
3.44
3.54
3.67
USD/AUD
0.93
0.91
0.9
0.89
1.99
2.02
2.02
2.07
USD/SEK
6.7
6.74
6.77
6.83
4.17
4.27
4.42
4.41
USD/NZD
0.79
0.78
0.77
0.76
0.83
0.92
0.98
1
USD/CHF
0.97
0.98
1
1.02
0.45
1.58
1.73
1.75
1.85
USD/DKK
5.83
5.87
5.92
5.92
2.04
2.23
2.3
2.31
2.41
USD/NOK
5.98
6.03
6
6.02
0
0.02
0.07
0.13
0.17
0.27
0.37
0.47
1.52
1.63
1.8
1.93
EUR/USD
1.28
1.27
1.26
1.25
0.22
0.33
0.48
0.64
2.19
2.19
2.36
2.48
EUR/USD
1.28
1.27
1.26
1.25
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.95
4.72
4.49
4.48
4.5
EUR/USD
1.28
1.27
1.26
1.25