08.02.2013
Economic Forecast - Composite Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13
LatAm Argentina
0.85
3.35
2.9
3
10
10.4
10.8 Deposit 1DY Rate
Brazil
2.5
3.1
3.45
3.5
6.2
6.2
5.9
5.55 SELIC Rate
Chile
4.9
4.3
4.4
4.7
1.5
2.4
2.95
3.1
Colombia
4.3
4.4
4.8
4.9
3
3
3.2
3.05 Deposit Rate
Mexico
2.95
3.55
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.41
3.6
Overnight rate
4.5
4.5
Peru
6.3
5.85
5.4
5.6
3.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
Reference Rate
4.25
4.25
Venezuela
-3.7
-0.7
-0.8
1
22
29.4
29.6
29.8 Deposit Rate
Monetary Policy Rate
8.15
7.6
7.55
7.5
-0.1
0.3
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
USD/ARS
5.12
5.31
5.53
5.76
5.8
5.5
5.2
4.65
-2.7
-2.4
-2.7
-2.8
-2.5
-2.5
-2.4
-2.3
USD/BRL
2.04
2.03
2.04
2.02
USD/CLP
470
472.5
472
475
USD/COP
1778
1773
1768
1778
USD/MXN
12.65
12.5
12.4
12.25
USD/PEN
2.55
2.53
2.52
2.51
25.85 25.65
25.5
7.25
7.13
7.13
7.13
5
5
5.13
5.25
4.5
4.5
4.63
4.63
10.3
10.1
9.6
9.55
-2.5
-2.9
-3.3
-2.8
4.5
4.5
4.81
4.7
4.68
4.6
-0.65
-0.6
-0.85
-1
4.25
4.25
-4 -2.2 -2.8
4.95
5.04
5.1
5.09
5.44
5.54
5.6
5.67
USD/VEF
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
-1
3.35
2.9
3
2.05
2.2
2.2
2.5
2w Repo rate
0
0
0
0.13
7.7
7.4
Hungary
-0.8
-0.4
0.05
0.3
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
Base Rate
5.13
4.88
4.88
4.88
11.75
11
Poland
0.5
1
1.5
2.1
1.9
1.7
2
2.3
Reference Rate
3.63
3.38
3.38
3.38
14
13.1
13.1
13.8
Slovakia
1.1
2.45
3.05
3.05
3.1
3
2.8
2.7
Key policy rate
13.8
13.3
13.2
13.1
Russia
2.6
3.1
3.5
3.55
6.8
6.5
6.2
5.9
Refinance Rate
8.25
8.13
8
7.88
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.6
Turkey
4
4.1
4.4
3.2
6.3
6.8
6.75
6.3
1wk Repo Rate
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.25
9.1
8.9
8.8
9.1
1wk Repo Rate
6
5.5
5.5
5.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.63
5
5
4.88
5
Iceland
7.6
8
10.85 10.85
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-1.5
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.4
-3.15
-2.95
-2.5
-2.45
5.4
3.05
1.25
2
0.45 3.73 -2.1
-1.6
-1.7
0.45 3.6
0.45 3.62
0.48 3.63
0.26
0.33
0.46
0.61
3.11
3.05
3.21
3.34
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.09
2.16
2.28
2.48
EUR/CZK
25.7
5.9
5.9
5.97
6.1
EUR/HUF
291
290
289
285
3.88
3.87
4
4.17
EUR/PLN
4.15
4.15
4.09
4.05
USD/RUB
30
30.4
30.35
30.4
USD/TRY
1.78
1.79
1.78
1.77
USD/ILS
3.75
3.78
3.78
3.8
USD/ZAR
8.8
8.72
8.6
8.51
6.65
6.74
EUR/SKK
-1.5 5.58
5.6
5.63
5.63
6.04
6.15
6.18
6.2
6.7
6.75
6.9
7.3
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
2.9
3.3
3.6
3.6
1.3
1.9
South Africa
2.4
2.5
2.95
3.5
5.7
5.8
Discount rate 6.15
5.5
Repo Rate
25.5
25.3
25.1
24.9
-5.5
-6
-6.1
-6.2
5.28
5.32
5.15
5.33
5.26
5.3
5.25
5.58
6.97
6.95
6.85
6.89
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/BHD USD/EGP
6.47
6.54
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
0.28
0.27
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
3.75
3.75
3.75
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
3.67
3.67
3.67
0.27 3.64
Asia China
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.05
2.6
3
3.4
3.5
Lending Rate
Hong Kong
2.9
4.3
4.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
4.4
3.4
Base Rate
6
6
6
6.13
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.5
1.65
2.4
2.6
2.65
India
5.8
5.6
6
6.3
8.9
8.35
8.1
7.95 Reverse Repo Rate
6.63
6.38
6.25
6.25
Indonesia
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.45
4.7
4.6
5.25
5.1
Reference Rate
5.75
5.75
5.88
6
South Korea
2.3
3.1
3.9
4
2.1
2.4
3.1
2.8
Base Rate
2.63
2.5
2.63
2.75
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
Malaysia
4.8
4.6
4.7
5.3
1.7
2.1
2.4
2.5
BN Interbank ON
3
3.13
3.13
3.25
3.2
3.1
3
3
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.7
Phillipines
5
5.65
6.3
6
3.65
3.8
3.7
3.85 Repo Rate
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.75
6.85
6.9
6.6
6.9
3.6
2.5
Singapore
2.9
2.65
4.55
4.95
4.1
3.8
3.6
3.7
Domestic IBOR rate
2
2.1
2
Taiwan
3.3
3.9
3.6
3.75
1.85
1.4
1
1.9
Discount Rate
1.88
2
2
2.13
4.4
4.4
4.4
Thailand
5.3
4
4.3
5.2
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.25 Repurchase Rate
2.75
2.63
2.75
2.88
0.7
0.6
0.6
Vietnam
5.55
5.85
6.15
6.1
8.3
10.5
10.4
8.8
1.6
0.45
-2.35
-5.85
3.07
3.1
3.18
3.22
3.64
3.69
3.7
3.75
USD/CNY
6.21
6.17
6.14
6.1
0.16
0.18
0.18
0.19
1.02
1.07
1.3
1.19
USD/HKD
7.76
7.76
7.76
7.76
7.5
7.25
7
7
7.84
7.75
7.78
7.78
USD/INR
53.5
53.5
53
53
5.56
5.92
5.98
6.04
USD/IDR
9752
9800
9700
9632
2.93
3.07
3.26
3.43
USD/KRW
1069
1050
1040
1030
3.72
3.64
3.66
3.67
USD/MYR
3.05
3.02
3.01
3
5.17
5.43
5.41
5.41
USD/PHP
40.5
40.3
39.9
39.5
1.43
1.6
1.79
1.88
USD/SGD
1.22
1.21
1.2
1.19
1.27
1.31
1.36
1.39
USD/TWD
29
28.8
28.7
28.6
3.56
3.5
3.49
3.5
USD/THB
30
29.8
29.7
29.5
0.4
0.41
0.45
0.44
4.83
4.9
5.02
5.22
3.18
3.34
3.35
3.4
1.43
1.59
1.69
1.96
2.2
0.39
0.39
0.4
0.43
0.27
0.26
0.28
0.29
4.3
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
2.88
2.81
2.98
3.05
2.68
2.68
2.7
2.85
-3.3
-2.8
-3.4
-4
-5.8
-4.2
-3.7
-3.7
-3.9
Base Rate
USD/VND 21000 21000 21000 21000
G-10 USA
1.5
2.1
2.5
2.7
1.7
2
2
2
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5
-2.8
-2.8
-2.8
-2.8
0.32
0.32
0.33
0.36
0.26
0.29
0.36
0.43
1.86
1.97
2.09
2.25
EUR/USD
1.32
1.3
1.31
Japan
1.6
2.25
2.55
2.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.3
BOJ overnight rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.05
0.85
1
1.1
1.05
-7
-5.8
-5.75
-5.8
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.09
0.09
0.1
0.1
0.81
0.85
0.92
0.98
USD/JPY
90
90
92
1.3 93
Euro
-0.6
-0.4
-0.1
0.45
2
1.9
1.8
1.7
ECB Rate
0.75
0.63
0.63
0.63
11.9
12
12
11.9
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.9
0.24
0.23
0.27
0.3
EUR/USD
1.32
1.3
1.31
1.3
United Kingdom
0.7
1.4
0.8
1.2
2.65
2.8
2.7
2.2
Official Bank Rate
0.59
0.59
0.61
0.64
0.31
0.37
0.46
0.54
1.98
2.07
2.21
2.3
USD/GBP
1.59
1.58
1.58
1.58
Canada
1.8
2.05
2.3
2.5
1.3
1.4
1.9
2
1.21
1.25
1.33
1.46
1.16
1.28
1.4
1.68
1.93
2.06
2.21
2.38
USD/CAD
0.99
0.98
0.98
0.98
Australia
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.95
2.9
3.05
2.4
3.05
2.95
2.86
2.9
2.66
2.59
2.64
2.74
3.23
3.2
3.28
3.42
USD/AUD
1.05
1.04
1.05
1.04
Sweden
1.4
1.2
2
2.7
0.5
0.8
1.2
1.22
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.8
1.65
1.65
1.83
1.9
1.91
2.06
USD/SEK
6.52
6.57
6.58
6.64
New Zealand
2.15
2.5
2.8
3
1
2.78
2.82
2.93
3.05
3.68
3.79
3.95
4.06
USD/NZD
0.84
0.83
0.83
0.83
Switzerland
0.4
0.75
1
1.6
0.3
0.02
0.03
0.08
0.06
0.82
0.91
1.03
1.09
USD/CHF
0.93
0.94
0.96
0.97
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
8
8.1
8.15
8.2
-3.2
-3.15
-3.1
-3.1
Overnight lending rate
1
1
1
1.13
7.3
7.3
7.2
7.2
-3.5
-3.2
-2.9
-2.9
2.6
RBA Cash Rate
3
2.88
2.75
2.75
5.55
5.6
5.6
5.5
-4.2
-4.3
-4.2
-4.2
1
1.5
Decision Rate
1
1
1
1
8
7.9
7.7
8.1
1.35
1.5
2
Cash Rate
2.5
2.63
2.63
2.75
6.9
6.7
6.6
6.4
0.35
0.5
0.6
Reference Rate
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
Discount rate
0.13
0.25
0.25
0.13
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.46
USD/DKK
5.53
5.64
5.69
5.83
1.84
1.86
1.87
1.96
1.95
1.95
2.12
2.24
USD/NOK
5.58
5.56
5.56
5.67
Denmark
-5.1
-5.5
Norway
2.5
2.45
2.8
3.1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.9
Deposit Rate
1.5
1.5
1.63
1.63
Germany
0
0.35
0.5
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.8
ECB Rate
0.75
0.63
0.63
0.63
6.9
7
6.95
6.95
5.9
5.7
France
-0.2
-0.05
0.05
0.6
1.3
1.5
1.75
1.8
ECB Rate
0.75
0.63
0.63
0.63
10.65
10.7
10.7
10.6
-2.1
-2.1
Italy
-1.8
-1.1
-0.75
0
2.1
1.8
1.9
2.15 ECB Rate
0.75
0.63
0.63
0.63
11.3
11.4
11.4
11.5
-1
-1
-5.7
-1.9
-1
-1
-0.9
-1
-5.8
-1.8
Q.M.S Advisors | +41 (0)78 922 0877 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
-0.8
0.38
0.53
0.8
1.2
0.1
0.17
0.27
0.41
1.57
1.67
1.81
1.95
EUR/USD
1.32
1.3
1.31
1.3
0.38
0.58
0.79
1.01
2.44
2.56
2.59
2.74
EUR/USD
1.32
1.3
1.31
1.3
2.63
2.43
2.2
2
4.86
4.63
4.54
4.63
EUR/USD
1.32
1.3
1.31
1.3