01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Composite Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
2
1.9
2.3
2.5
1.9
1.7
2
Japan
0.5
1.2
1.2
1.45
0
-0.2
-0.05
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
8.1
8.1
8
7.9
-3.2
-3.15
-3.2
-3.15
0.41
0.43
0.46
0.51
0.31
0.38
0.47
0.58
1.77
1.9
2.07
2.24
EUR/USD
1.27
1.26
1.24
0.15 BOJ overnight rate
Euro
-0.4
-0.25
0.2
0.8
2.3
1.9
United Kingdom
2.1
Fed Funds Rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.6
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.87
0.95
0.99
1.05
USD/JPY
79
80
82
83
1.9
1.9
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.63
11.45
11.5
11.5
11.4
1.1
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.34
0.37
0.4
0.46
EUR/USD
1.27
1.26
1.24
1.23
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
8.25
8.3
8.4
8.3
-2.7
-2.7
-2.6
-2.6
0.64
0.65
0.68
0.73
0.32
0.45
0.57
0.79
1.82
1.99
2.15
2.3
USD/GBP
1.6
1.58
1.58
1.59
1
1
1.13
1.25
7.3
7.2
7.2
7.1
-3
-3
-3
-2.8
1.17
1.27
1.39
1.56
1.19
1.27
1.43
1.66
1.81
1.94
2.13
2.35
USD/CAD
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
5.2
-3.8
-4
-4.2
-4.5
3.4
3.39
3.42
3.55
2.76
2.86
3.06
3.34
3.19
3.3
3.47
3.73
USD/AUD
1.02
1.02
1.03
1.03
1.49
1.53
1.58
1.61
1
1.45
1.35
1.65
1.68
1.66
1.79
1.8
USD/SEK
6.62
6.74
6.81
6.86
2.79
2.94
3.15
3.45
4.19
4.25
4.37
4.52
USD/NZD
0.81
0.81
0.8
0.82
0.05
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.76
0.87
0.99
1.16
USD/CHF
0.95
0.96
0.99
1
USD/DKK
5.73
5.85
5.94
5.95
-0.1
0.5
1.5
1.2
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.2
Official Bank Rate
Canada
2
2
2.2
2.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.1
Overnight lending rate
Australia
3.2
2.7
2.8
3.15
2.45
3.15
3.2
2.7
RBA Cash Rate
3.25
3.13
3.13
3.25
5.4
5.45
5.35
Sweden
1.6
1.6
1.3
0.8
1.2
Decision Rate
1.13
1.13
1.13
1.25
7.6
8
8.3
New Zealand
2.8
2.4
2.85
3
1.9
1.9
2.2
2.5
Cash Rate
2.5
2.75
2.88
3.25
6.2
6
5.8
5.65
Switzerland
1.2
1
1.25
1.9
0.1
0.4
0.5
1
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
Denmark
-6.35
-6.55
-0.9
-7
-0.9
-5.9
-0.7
-5.6
-0.5
-6.5
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.1
Discount rate
Norway Germany
Reference Rate
-6.2
-7.55
Deposit Rate
1.5
1.63
1.63
1.63
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.63
6.8
6.8
6.75
6.7
6.2
5.9
5.7
1.8
1.95 ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.63
10.4
10.4
10.4
10.4
-2.2
-2.15
-2.2
2.3
1.75
2.05 ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.63
11
11.1
11.2
11.2
-0.8
-1
-1
2.9
2.4
2.35
2.3
2w Repo rate
0.38
0.5
0.5
0.5
8.7
9.3
8.5
8.6
-1.6
-0.9
-2.7
-2.7
5.35
3.95
4
3.8
Base Rate
6.5
6.25
6
5.88
10.95
11.7
11
10.8
2
1.5
1.3
1.3
2.8
2.55
2.7
Reference Rate
4.38
4
4
4
13.1
13.75 12.75 12.75
-4.1
-3.6
-3.15
-3.45
2.8
5.8
2
1.2
1
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.9
France
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.9
1.85
1.7
Italy
-2.3
-1.35
-0.5
0.15
2.8
Czech Republic
-0.2
2.3
3.3
3
Hungary
-0.4
0.2
0.6
1.2
Poland
1.8
1.6
1.95
2.3
3.2
Slovakia
-2.5
1.23
2.06
2.23
2.31
2.42
USD/NOK
5.76
5.84
5.83
5.87
0.15
0.29
0.42
0.57
1.65
1.85
2
2.14
EUR/USD
1.27
1.26
1.24
1.23
0.5
0.95
0.95
0.6
2.69
2.85
2.91
3.07
EUR/USD
1.27
1.26
1.24
1.23
2.75
2.7
2.6
2.2
5.31
5.06
5.12
5.04
EUR/USD
1.27
1.26
1.24
1.23
1.63
1.78
1.98
2.16
2.55
2.64
2.85
2.94
EUR/CZK
25
24.8
24.6
24.5
7.54
7.31
7.16
7.08
EUR/HUF
284
280
276
280
4.72
4.74
4.83
4.86
EUR/PLN
4.1
4.13
4.05
4.05
Eastern Europe
0.7
1.1
2.45
3.05
3
2
2
2.45 Key policy rate
13.8
13.8
13.3
13.2
Russia
3
2.95
3.3
3.8
6.7
7.1
6.85
6.55 Refinance Rate
8.38
8.38
8.25
8.13
5.8
6.1
5.8
5.7
Turkey
3.1
3.4
3.15
4.35
6.7
6.5
6.9
6.8
1wk Repo Rate
5.88
5.75
5.75
5.75
9.1
9.1
8.9
8.8
1wk Repo Rate
6
6
5.5
5.5
Discount rate
2.13
2.13
2.25
2.5
Repo Rate
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
Iceland
0.9 4.63 -1
-2.1
-1.6
0.93 4.32
0.94 4.24
1.01 4.2
4.17
4.16
4.27
4.38
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
EUR/SKK
-1.7
USD/RUB 6.46
6.78
7.07
7.45
6
6.75
7.5
8
USD/TRY
31.35 30.98 30.97 31.21 1.8
1.76
1.75
1.75
USD/ILS
3.9
3.88
3.8
3.8
USD/ZAR
8.2
8
7.96
8.15
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
2.5
2.8
3.3
3.6
1.1
0.5
2
South Africa
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
5.2
5.3
5.2
5.5
-4.7
-5.05
-5.15
-5.3
5.07
5.08
5.07
5.11
4.74
4.92
5.36
5.61
6.91
7
7.09
7.22
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/BHD USD/EGP
6.14
6.21
6.26
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
0.28
0.28
0.27
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
3.64
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
3.75
3.75
3.75
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
3.67
3.67
3.67
Asia China
7.7
7.85
8.1
8.3
2.5
2.85
3.4
3.5
Hong Kong
3.2
3.3
3.45
4.25
2.4
3.6
2.8
4.25 Base Rate
Lending Rate
5.88
5.88
5.88
5.88
4.15
4.25
4.2
4.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
India
5.7
6.2
6.65
6.9
9.6
9.2
8.95
9.1
Indonesia
5.85
5.75
4.9
4.8
5.52
South Korea
2.8
3.35
3.3
3.6
2.25
2.5
2.9
3
Malaysia
4.05
4.2
4.3
5.2
2
2.4
2.65
2.7
BN Interbank ON
Phillipines
4.6
4.2
4.9
4.8
3.45
4.3
4.25
4.1
Repo Rate
Singapore
3.6
3.35
3.95
4.4
3.85
3.3
3
3
Taiwan
4.3
3.8
4
3.2
2.05
2.06
1.8
1.2
Thailand
15.1
5.2
4.4
4.55
3.6
2.7
3.7
3.5
Vietnam
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.75
9.3
Argentina
0.5
2.3
3.3
3
10.7
10.8
7.75
8.3
7.9
7.6
-0.35
-0.1
0.3
0.1
-1.5
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
USD/ARS
4.93
5.07
5.25
5.46
Brazil
2.8
3.7
4.3
4.1
5.3
5.55
5.7
5.3
SELIC Rate
7.38
7.5
7.75
8.13
5.3
6
5.8
5.8
-2.4
-2.45
-2.45
-2.7
-1.95
-1.95
-1.95
-2.4
USD/BRL
2
1.98
1.95
1.95
Chile
4.6
4.75
4.4
4.55
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.4
Monetary Policy Rate
4.88
4.88
4.75
5
6.3
1.2
USD/CLP
485.5
482
483
475
Colombia
4.3
4.65
4.3
4.55
3
3
3.15
3.1
Deposit Rate
4.63
4.63
4.63
4.63
10.2
USD/COP
1800
1801
1782
1775
Mexico
4.85
USD/MXN
12.81 12.75 12.55 12.45
Reverse Repo Rate
6.75
6.63
7
7
Reference Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.88
Base Rate
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.88
3.3
3.35
3.35
3
3
3.13
3.25
3
3.2
3.1
3.63
3.63
3.75
3.75
Discount Rate
1.88
1.88
1.88
2
Repurchase Rate
2.88
3
3
3.13
Domestic IBOR rate
2.6 0.37 -3.1
0.38
0.4
0.46
2.1
2
2
2.1
3.36
3.39
3.38
3.44
USD/CNY
6.32
6.29
6.27
6.22
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.27
1.2
1.44
1.48
USD/HKD
7.77
7.78
7.78
7.77
8
7.88
7.94
8.09
USD/INR
54.5
54
53
52.5
6.04
6.2
6.29
6.39
USD/IDR
9600
9613
9500
9342 1080
-2.9 4.92
4.82
4.8
4.78
3.21
3.34
3.45
3.35
USD/KRW
1120
1101
1096
3.17
3.2
3.36
3.4
3.66
3.68
3.74
3.73
USD/MYR
3.1
3.05
3.03
3
2.32
2.74
2.99
3.13
5.79
6
6.12
6.23
USD/PHP
41.5
41.3
41
40.4 1.21
3.35 8.6
9.7
9.8
2.25
2.3
2.2
2.2
0.39
0.41
0.48
0.55
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.25
1.8
1.82
1.98
2.14
USD/SGD
1.24
1.23
1.22
4.29
4.35
4.25
4.25
1.35
1.34
1.4
1.47
0.77
0.8
0.85
0.87
1.25
1.28
1.33
1.37
USD/TWD
29.6
29.4
29.1
29
2.96
2.98
3.07
3.18
3.1
3.34
3.56
3.64
3.71
USD/THB
31
30.8
30.45
30.2
Base Rate
USD/VND 21100 21200 21300 21500
LatAm Deposit 1DY Rate
3.3
3.05
3.3
3.4
4
4.2
4
3.7
Overnight rate
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.63
Peru
6
5.9
5.6
5.45
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
Reference Rate
4.25
4.13
4.13
4.25
Venezuela
4
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
25.3
27
29.4
29.6 Deposit Rate
-2.5 11.05 10.65 4.8
4.7
10.2
-3.6
-2.7
-4.1
-4.5
-2
4.7
-1
-1
-1
-1.2
-1.4
-2.8
4.77
4.87
4.93
4.96
5.77
5.87
6
6.11
USD/PEN 7
7.1
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
USD/VEF
2.6
2.59
2.57
2.55
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Composite From Survey Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
2
1.9
2.3
2.5
1.9
1.7
2
2.1
Fed Funds Rate
8.1
8.1
8
7.9
-3.2
-3.1
-3.2
-3.1
Japan
0.5
1.2
1.2
1.5
0
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
BOJ overnight rate
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.6
-7.6
-7
-5.9
-5.6
EUR/USD USD/JPY
Euro
-0.4
-0.3
0.2
0.8
2.2
2
1.9
2
ECB Rate
11.4
11.5
11.5
11.4
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.2
EUR/USD
United Kingdom
-0.1
0.7
1.6
1.2
2.1
2
2.3
2.2
Official Bank Rate
8.2
8.3
8.3
8.3
-2.7
-2.7
-2.6
-2.6
Canada
2
2
2.2
2.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.1
Overnight lending rate
7.3
7.2
7.2
7.1
-3.1
-3
-3
-2.8
-0.9
-0.9
-0.7
-0.5
USD/CAD
Australia
3.2
2.7
2.8
3.2
2.5
3.2
3.2
2.7
RBA Cash Rate
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.2
-3.8
-4
-4.2
-4.5
-2
-1
0.1
0.1
USD/AUD
Sweden
1.6
1.6
1.3
0.8
1.2
Decision Rate
7.6
8
8.3
New Zealand
2.8
2.4
2.9
3
1.9
1.9
2.2
2.5
Cash Rate
6.2
6
5.8
5.7
-6.2
-6.3
-6.5
-6.5
-6
-5.8
-3.1
-5
USD/NZD
Switzerland
1.2
1
1.3
1.9
0.1
0.4
0.5
1
Reference Rate
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
Denmark
1.4
2.6
2.6
Discount rate
4.5
4.5
Norway
1.7
1.6
2
Deposit Rate
2.6
Germany
USD/GBP
USD/SEK USD/CHF USD/DKK USD/NOK
1
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.9
1.7
1.9
1.9
ECB Rate
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.7
4.8
4.8
4.4
France
-0.1
0.1
0.5
1
1.9
1.7
2
2
ECB Rate
10.4
10.4
10.4
10.4
-1.9
-1.8
-1.9
EUR/USD
Italy
-2.2
-1.3
-0.5
0.3
2.9
2.1
1.7
2
ECB Rate
11
11.1
11.2
11.2
-0.8
-3.8
-2.5
Czech Republic
-0.2
3.9
3.3
2.9
2.4
2.4
2.3
2w Repo rate
8.7
9.3
8.5
8.6
-1.6
-0.9
-2.7
-2.7
-3.3
Hungary
-0.4
0.2
0.6
1.2
5.3
4
3.9
3.9
Base Rate
11
11.7
11
10.8
2
1.5
1.3
1.3
-3
-3
-2.9
-2.9
EUR/HUF
Poland
1.8
1.6
2
2.3
3.3
2.8
2.6
2.7
Reference Rate
12.9
13.8
13
12.8
-4.3
-3.2
-2.6
-2.7
-3.4
-3.4
-3.4
-3.3
EUR/PLN
Slovakia
0.7
1.1
2.5
3.1
3
2
2
2.5
Key policy rate
13.8
13.8
13.3
13.2
-4.5
-3
-3
-3
EUR/SKK
Russia
3
3
3.3
3.8
6.8
7.1
6.9
6.6
Refinance Rate
5.8
6.1
5.8
5.7
2.8
5.8
2
1.2
-0.9
-2.2
-2.1
-1.4
USD/RUB
Turkey
3.4
3.8
3
4.3
6.5
6.9
6.9
7
1wk Repo Rate
9.6
9.4
9.1
8.9
-7.8
-8
-8.2
-8.4
-2.3
-2.1
-2.1
-2
USD/TRY
-2.3
EUR/USD EUR/USD
Eastern Europe
Iceland
EUR/CZK
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
3.5
4.1
4.3
4
1.8
1.3
2.2
2.8
Discount rate
South Africa
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.1
5.2
5.3
5.2
5.4
Repo Rate
7
7
22.7
0
0
-4.7
-5.1
3.5 -5.2
3.5
3.5
USD/ILS
-5.3
USD/ZAR
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/BHD USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
Asia China
7.7
7.9
8.1
8.3
2.5
2.8
3.3
3.4
Lending Rate
4.2
3
3.1
4
4.5
2.3
3.1
2.9
3.9
Base Rate
3.5
5.5
6.2
6.8
7.1
9.6
9.2
8.3
8.3
Reverse Repo Rate
6
5.8
4.9
5.48
5.68
South Korea
2.7
3.6
3.1
3.5
2.1
2.2
2.5
2.9
Base Rate
Malaysia
4.05
5.2
4.3
5.2
2.1
2.6
2.6
2.7
BN Interbank ON
Phillipines
4.6
4.2
4.9
4.8
3.7
4.3
4.3
4.1
Repo Rate
USD/PHP
Singapore
3.6
2.9
4
4.4
3.8
3.3
3
3
Domestic IBOR rate
USD/SGD
Taiwan
3.9
3.8
4.3
4.1
2
2
1.8
1.2
Discount Rate
Thailand
14.4
5.6
4.6
4.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.5
Repurchase Rate
USD/THB
Base Rate
USD/VND
Hong Kong India Indonesia
4.3
4.2
4.2
2.6
USD/CNY USD/HKD
-3.1
-3.5
USD/INR
Reference Rate
Vietnam
USD/IDR 3.3
3.3
3.4
3
3.2
3.1
4.2
4.3
4.2
3.4
USD/KRW 8.6
9.7
9.8
USD/MYR
4.2
USD/TWD
LatAm Argentina
2.2
3.9
3.3
Brazil
2.8
3.7
4.3
Chile
4.8
5
4.5
Colombia
4.3
4.7
4.3
4.6
Mexico
4.1
5.3
5.6
5.8
2.3
2.4
2.7
3
3
3.2
Deposit 1DY Rate
7.6
SELIC Rate
5.3
6
5.8
Monetary Policy Rate
6.3
6.7
6.5
3.1
Deposit Rate
10.2
11.1
10.6 4.7
5.4
-0.5
3.3
2.9
3.2
3.4
4
4.2
3.9
3.7
Overnight rate
4.8
4.8
Peru
6
5.9
5.6
5.5
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
Reference Rate
4.3
4.3
Venezuela
4
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
25.3
27
29.4
29.6 Deposit Rate
7
8.7
5.8
USD/ARS
-2.4
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
-4.3
10.2
-3.6
-2.7
-4.1
4.7
-1
-1
-1
4.4
5.4
-2.7
-2
-2
-2
-2.4
USD/BRL
1.2
USD/CLP
-4.5
-2
USD/COP
-1.2
-1.4
-2.8
USD/MXN USD/PEN
8.7
-6.1
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
USD/VEF
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Barclays Capital Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
2.5
1.5
Japan
2.99
2.12
2
Euro
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
United Kingdom
-0.1
0.7
1.7
Canada
2.5
2
Australia
2.4
2.6
2.5
2
1.5
2.3
-0.32
-0.15
-0.16
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
7.9
7.8
0.26 BOJ overnight rate
0.8
2.6
2.3
1.8
2.5
2.5
2.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4
4
2.3
2.4
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
11.6
11.7
11.8
2.9
2.9
Official Bank Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
8.2
8.3
8.4
1
1.25
1.5
2.4 2.7
2.8
Overnight lending rate RBA Cash Rate
3.5
3.5
3.5
Sweden
Decision Rate
1
1
1
New Zealand
Cash Rate
2.5
2.75
2.75
Reference Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
Switzerland
1.9
Fed Funds Rate
2.4
2.5
2.5
0
7.5
7.3
-3.2
-3.2
1.27
1.3
-3.2
11.8
1.2
1.3
1.4
8.4
-4
-4.1
-4.2
-3.2
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.85
0.85
0.85
1.5
0.2
0.2
0.25
0.25
-4.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
1.75
1.85
2
2.15
USD/GBP USD/CAD
3.5
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
-2.7
-2.8
-2.9
-2.7
3.95
3.95
3.95
3.95
3.95
3.95
3.1
3.2
3.25
USD/AUD USD/SEK
3.5
USD/NZD 0.25
USD/CHF
Denmark
Discount rate
Norway
Deposit Rate
1.5
1.75
1.75
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
0.5
0.5
EUR/CZK
Hungary
Base Rate
7
6.5
EUR/HUF
Poland
Reference Rate
4
3.25
Slovakia
Key policy rate
Germany France
0.5
0.7
1.1
1.2
Italy
2
1.8
2.2
1.6
1.6
2.1
3.6
USD/DKK USD/NOK 0.05 10.5
10.6
10.6
10.6
-2.4
-2.4
-2.4
-2.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
1.75
1.85
1.95
1.95
EUR/USD
3.84
3.86
3.9
3.95
EUR/USD EUR/USD
Eastern Europe
Russia
3
6.5
Turkey
5.7
6.7
Iceland
3.25
EUR/PLN EUR/SKK
Refinance Rate
7.75
1wk Repo Rate
5.5
USD/RUB 5.5
5.5
USD/TRY
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
MEA Israel South Africa
Discount rate 2.6
2.6
2.7
3.1
5.2
5.3
5
5.3
Repo Rate
2.25
2.25
5
5
USD/ILS 5
5
-5.3
-5.2
-5.2
-5.3
USD/ZAR
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/BHD USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
Asia China
8.4
8.7
Lending Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
Hong Kong
Base Rate
India
Reverse Repo Rate
Indonesia
Reference Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
Base Rate
2.75
2.75
2.75
BN Interbank ON
3
3
Repo Rate
4
4
South Korea
4.3
4.1
4.2
Malaysia Phillipines
5.3
Singapore Taiwan
5.75
USD/CNY USD/HKD USD/INR USD/IDR
2.75
USD/KRW USD/MYR USD/PHP
Domestic IBOR rate 5.3
5
Discount Rate
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
Vietnam
Base Rate
USD/SGD 1.88
1.88
3
3.25
USD/TWD USD/THB USD/VND
LatAm Argentina Brazil
Deposit 1DY Rate 5.3
5.9
5.9
SELIC Rate
USD/ARS 7.25
7.25
7.25
5
5
5
Chile
Monetary Policy Rate
Colombia
Deposit Rate
5.5
5.5
Mexico
Overnight rate
4.5
4.5
Peru
3.9
Reference Rate
5
5
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
7.25
6.3
6.3
6.3
USD/BRL USD/CLP USD/COP
4.5
4.5
5.1
USD/MXN USD/PEN USD/VEF
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - BNP Paribas Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
1.8
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.1
2
2.4
2.3
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
8.2
8.2
8.1
8
-3.5
-3.5
-3.6
-3.6
Japan
-0.6
0.8
1.2
1.2
0.6
0.1
0.4
0.5
BOJ overnight rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4
4
3.9
3.9
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
ECB Rate
0.5
Official Bank Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
8.9
8.9
8.8
8.7
1
1
1.25
1.5
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
-2.5
-2.9
-3.6
-2
3.25
2.75
2.75
2.75
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.1
-2.4
-2.8
-2.8
-2.6
Euro United Kingdom
0.5
1.2
1.7
2
2
1.7
1.7
2
Canada
2.1
2.2
2
2.4
1.1
1.5
2
2.2
Overnight lending rate
Australia
3.3
3.8
3.9
3.7
2.6
3.3
3.1
2.7
RBA Cash Rate
-6.5
-6.5
-6.2
-6.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.35
0.25
0.3
0.3
0.35
0.1
2
1.5
1.85
2.15
0.7
0.05 -0.9
-1
-1.2
-1.2
EUR/USD
1.35
1.32
1.35
USD/JPY
77
76
76
1.32 75
EUR/USD
1.35
1.32
1.35
1.32
0.8
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.4
0.5
1.1
1.45
1.75
2.05
USD/GBP
1.73
1.74
1.78
1.78
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.75
1.2
1.35
1.6
1.9
2.05
2.2
2.35
2.55
USD/CAD
0.96
0.95
0.94
0.92
3.65
3.6
3.8
4
3.25
3.45
3.7
4
4.25
4.45
4.65
4.9
USD/AUD
1.08
1
1.02
1.04
Sweden
Decision Rate
USD/SEK
6.56
6.7
6.67
6.82
New Zealand
Cash Rate
USD/NZD
0.86
0.83
0.85
0.88
Switzerland
Reference Rate
USD/CHF
0.93
0.95
0.93
0.98
Denmark
Discount rate
USD/DKK
5.53
5.65
5.53
5.65
Norway
Deposit Rate
USD/NOK
5.56
5.68
5.48
5.61
Germany
ECB Rate
0.5
EUR/USD
1.35
1.32
1.35
1.32
ECB Rate
0.5
EUR/USD
1.35
1.32
1.35
1.32
ECB Rate
0.5
EUR/USD
1.35
1.32
1.35
1.32
France
0.1
0.4
0.8
1.1
2
1.8
1.7
2
Italy
0.1 10.5
10.5
10.5
10.6
-2
-2.3
-2.3
-2.3
0.5
1.45 0.5
0.55
0.6
2.6
2.5
2.55
2.65
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
EUR/CZK
25.5
26.2
25.8
25
Hungary
Base Rate
EUR/HUF
275
275
273
277
EUR/PLN
4.25
4.3
4.2
4.15
Poland
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.9
3.3
2.8
2.5
2.5
Slovakia
Reference Rate
4
3.5
3.5
3.5
12.7
14.1
13.6
13.3
-2.6
-2.6
-1.9
-1.2
4.3
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.45
4.55
4.5
4.8
4.7
Key policy rate
EUR/SKK
Russia
3.3
2.9
3.3
4.1
7
8.1
8
7.4
Refinance Rate
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
5.8
5.9
5.3
5.3
Turkey
3.6
4.2
4.4
4.6
6.4
7.1
7.5
7.1
1wk Repo Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
9.2
9.1
9
9
Iceland
2.6
2.5
1.8
1.7 6.2
6.8
7.5
8.5
7
7.5
8
9
1wk Repo Rate
USD/RUB
30.24 29.98 29.81 31.29
USD/TRY
1.74
1.72
1.74
1.79
USD/ILS
3.87
3.88
3.76
3.75
USD/ZAR
8.5
8
8.1
8
USD/ISK
MEA Israel South Africa
Discount rate 3.1
3.4
3
2.7
5.6
6.1
6.2
4.9
Repo Rate
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
-4.8
-5.2
-5.1
-5.3
4.85
4.85
4.75
4.6
7
6.85
6.9
7
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
6.5
7
7.5
8
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
3.64
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
3.75
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
3.67
Asia China
7.3
7.8
8.1
8.4
3.2
3.8
3.8
3.6
Lending Rate
Hong Kong
0.9
0.9
2.3
3.8
4.1
3.6
3.8
5.5
Base Rate
India
5.3
6.2
6.8
7.4
Indonesia South Korea
3.4
2.8 0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.5
1.65
2
2.2
USD/CNY
6.3
6.27
6.25
6.3
USD/HKD
7.75
7.75
7.75
7.75
Reverse Repo Rate
USD/INR
55
54.5
54
53.5
Reference Rate
USD/IDR
9800
9850
9900
9950
1050
1030
3.05
3
2.95
Phillipines
Repo Rate
USD/PHP
40
39.5
39
38.5
Singapore
Domestic IBOR rate
USD/SGD
1.24
1.22
1.2
1.18
USD/TWD
29
28.5
28
27.8
30
29.5
29
28.7
1.39
2.7
1.1
3.5
1080
2.11
2.5
3.6
3.1
2.99
2.2
3.5
1100
3.06
2.7
2.7 3.4
USD/MYR
2.01
3.1
5.75
USD/KRW
1.86
2
5.75
BN Interbank ON
1.45
4.3
5.75
Malaysia
Taiwan
1.3
5.75
Base Rate
0.37 Discount Rate
2.5
1.88
2.5
1.88
2.5
1.88
2.5
1.88
3.5
4.37
3.5
4.51
3.6
4.53
3.5
2.2
1.7
1.8
1.5
2.8
4.58
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.75
0.75
0.8
0.85
1.25
2.95
1.3
3.1
1.45
3.35
1.55
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
USD/THB
Vietnam
Base Rate
USD/VND 21000 21000 21000 21000
LatAm Argentina Brazil
Deposit 1DY Rate 2
3.2
4.7
5.5
5.4
5.9
6.4
6.3
SELIC Rate
Chile
Monetary Policy Rate
Colombia
Deposit Rate
Mexico
4
5.3
3.3
3.8
4.1
4.1
4
3.8
7.5
8.5
5
4.75
Overnight rate
4.5
Peru
Reference Rate
4.5
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
4.75
9
5
9
5
4.4
4.9
5.3
5.2
4.5
5.4
4.3
5.3
-2.4
-1.4
-2.5
-1.3
-2.6
-1.2
-2.8
-0.7
-2.7
-1.9
0.5
-2
USD/ARS
7.85
5
5.15
5.35
USD/BRL
1.98
1.98
1.96
1.95
USD/CLP
482
480
483
486
USD/COP
1850
1875
1830
1815
USD/MXN
12.75
12.6
12.5
12.3
USD/PEN
2.6
2.59
2.58
2.57
USD/VEF
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
1
1
1.5
2.2
2
1.7
1.9
1.9
Japan
-1.4
4.4
0.4
1
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0
Euro
-1.2
-1.3
-0.9
-0.3
2
1.8
1.7
0
0.7
1.9
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.8
United Kingdom Canada
1.8
Australia
3.1
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.4
BOJ overnight rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
4
1.7
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
11.4
11.6
11.6
11.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.15
2.1
Official Bank Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.5
-1.9
-1.9
-1.8
-1.7
0.65
0.65
0.65
1
1
0.25
0.9
3.25
3.25
3.5
3.5
2.1 2.4
2.6
3.1
2.7
Overnight lending rate 3.3
3.5
2.6
3.25
5.8
6
6.1
6.1
-3.6
-3.8
-4.1
-4.5
0.35
3.5
0.35
3.5
0.25
0.2
0.2
0.25
1.75
1.75
1.75
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.75
EUR/USD
1.15
1.18
1.19
USD/JPY
78
80
82
1.2 84
EUR/USD
1.15
1.18
1.19
1.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
1.85
2.05
2.25
USD/GBP
1.53
1.51
1.49
1.5
1.1
1.15
1.2
2
2.15
2.2
USD/CAD
1.05
1.04
1.03
1.02
2.7
2.65
2.75
3
3
3
USD/AUD
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.96
Decision Rate
USD/SEK
7.39
7.12
6.97
6.92
New Zealand
Cash Rate
USD/NZD
0.78
0.79
0.79
0.78
Switzerland
Reference Rate
USD/CHF
1.06
1.05
1.06
1.07
Denmark
Discount rate
USD/NOK
6.43
6.23
6.09
6.04
EUR/USD
1.15
1.18
1.19
1.2
0
3.25
-1
0.35
Sweden
Norway
RBA Cash Rate
8.2
0.38
2.85
0
3
USD/DKK
Deposit Rate
Germany
0
-0.4
0
0.8
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.6
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.2
5.9
5.7
5.7
France
0
-0.2
0.1
0.2
2
2.1
2.1
2.1
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
10.4
10.6
10.7
10.8
-2.6
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
EUR/USD
1.15
1.18
1.19
1.2
-2.7
-2.1
-1.6
-1.4
2.7
2.4
2.3
2.3
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
11
11.4
11.6
11.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
0.9
EUR/USD
1.15
1.18
1.19
1.2
Base Rate
6.5
6
6
6
Poland
Reference Rate
4.25
4.25
4
Slovakia
Key policy rate
Italy
0.1
0.1
0.15
1.5
1.6
1.7
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
Hungary
Russia
3.5
3.3
2.9
3
3.5
6.7
6.7
5.7
4.7
4.7
4.65
4.35
4.7
4.75
4.55
EUR/CZK
25.3
25.3
25.3
25
EUR/HUF
285
285
285
285
EUR/PLN
4.25
4.25
4.25
4.15
USD/RUB
31.5
31.5
31.5
31
USD/TRY
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.75
USD/ILS
3.85
3.85
3.85
3.75
USD/ZAR
8
8
8
7.6
EUR/SKK
Refinance Rate
8.25
8.25
7.75
7.5
Turkey
1wk Repo Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
Iceland
1wk Repo Rate
6
6
6
USD/ISK
MEA Israel South Africa
Discount rate 3.5
4.5
6
5.6
Repo Rate
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
22.7
-5.2
-5.4
5.45
5.5
5.6
7.25
7.25
7.3
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
6.04
6.04
6.04
6.04
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
3.64
3.64
3.64
3.64
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
3.67
3.67
3.67
3.67
Asia China
7.7
7.6
7.6
7.5
Lending Rate
USD/CNY
6.4
6.35
6.3
6.3
USD/HKD
7.8
7.82
7.8
7.8
USD/INR
53
51
50
50
USD/IDR
9400
9300
9200
9100
USD/KRW
1100
1080
1000
1000
USD/MYR
3.1
3.05
3
2.95
USD/PHP
42
41
39.8
39.8
Domestic IBOR rate
USD/SGD
1.24
1.21
1.21
1.2
Taiwan
Discount Rate
USD/TWD
30
28.5
28
27.5
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
USD/THB
30
29.8
29
29
Vietnam
Base Rate
USD/VND USD/ARS
5
5.3
5.6
5.9
USD/BRL
2.05
2
1.98
1.96
Hong Kong
Base Rate
India
Reverse Repo Rate
Indonesia
Reference Rate
South Korea Malaysia
3.9
3.9
4.2
4.2
4.2
6 5.75
5.75
5.75
3
3
3
5.75
Base Rate 4.2
2.1
BN Interbank ON
Phillipines Singapore
3.9 0.5
Repo Rate 5.5
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.75
LatAm Argentina
0.6
Brazil
4.7
Deposit 1DY Rate
Chile
3.8
Colombia
4.7
Mexico
2.3
Peru
5.1
Venezuela
4.6
Deposit Rate
5.1 2.1 3.5
4.7
5.3
2.8 3.8
3
3
3.1
SELIC Rate
7.25
7.25
7.25
Monetary Policy Rate Deposit Rate
4.75
4.5
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
Overnight rate
4.5
4.5
4.5
Reference Rate
4.25
4.75
9.6
9.9
9.2
8.5 4.8
4.85
5.1
5.8
5.85
6
USD/CLP
500
500
497
495
USD/COP
1800
1780
1770
1760
USD/MXN
13.6
13.3
13.15
13
USD/PEN
2.65
2.64
2.63
2.62
USD/VEF
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Citibank Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
2
1.3
2
3.2
2.1
2
1.8
1.7
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
8.1
8
8
8
-3
-3
-3.2
-3.2
0.42
0.44
0.55
0.65
0.25
0.35
0.55
0.7
1.65
1.8
2.1
2.35
EUR/USD
1.27
1.2
1.15
Japan
-0.3
1.7
2.7
2.5
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
BOJ overnight rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.1
0.8
1
1.1
1.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.95
1.1
1.2
1.1
USD/JPY
77
77
76
77
Euro
-1.1
-1.4
-1.2
-0.9
2.2
1.8
1.8
2.2
ECB Rate
1
0.75
0.75
0.5
11.3
11.4
11.4
11.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
EUR/USD
1.27
1.2
1.15
1.17
United Kingdom
-0.7
0
0.8
0.4
1.8
1.5
1.7
1.8
Official Bank Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
7.9
7.9
7.7
7.6
0.85
0.85
0.9
1
Canada
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.8
1.5
1.6
1.5
2.1
Overnight lending rate
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
7.2
7.2
7
6.9
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.75
5.5
Australia
1.6
RBA Cash Rate
Sweden
Decision Rate
New Zealand
Cash Rate
Switzerland
Reference Rate
Denmark
Discount rate
Norway Germany France
-3.7
-3.3
-3.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
-2.8 3.4
3.4
3.7
4
2.6
3.9
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.75
USD/GBP
1.59
1.55
1.52
1.53
1.75
2.1
2.5
2.75
USD/CAD
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.98
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.8
USD/AUD
1.02
0.99
0.96
0.96
USD/SEK 2.5
2.75
3
3.5
3.8
4
4.4
4.75
USD/NZD
0.82
0.8
0.79
0.77
0
0
0
0
0.44
0.5
0.54
0.64
USD/CHF
0.95
1
1.04
1.02
EUR/USD
1.27
1.2
1.15
1.17
EUR/USD
1.27
1.2
1.15
1.17
EUR/USD
1.27
1.2
1.15
1.17 25.6
USD/DKK
Deposit Rate
USD/NOK
2
2
1.8
1.5
2.1
2.4
2.2
2.3
ECB Rate
1
0.75
0.75
0.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
-0.7
-0.8
-0.5
0
1.3
0.9
0.8
1.1
ECB Rate
1
0.75
0.75
0.5
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.4
ECB Rate
1
0.75
0.75
0.5
Italy
1.17
0.25
0.25
0.35
0.5
1.75
1.8
2
2.25
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
Hungary Poland
EUR/CZK
25.1
25.5
25.9
5.5
4
3.9
3.7
Base Rate
6.5
6
6
5.5
7
6.75
6.63
6.5
EUR/HUF
296
304
309
305
Reference Rate
4.75
4.5
4.25
4.25
5.25
5.2
5.15
5.25
EUR/PLN
4.2
4.31
4.38
4.28
1.8
1.4
1.6
3.1
3
2.5
2.3
2.8
Russia
2.4
4.1
4.6
4.1
6.6
7.2
7.5
6.9
Refinance Rate
8.25
8.5
8.5
8.5
USD/RUB
32.3
34
35.4
35
Turkey
3.1
1.2
3.4
5.3
6.7
7.1
7
6.7
1wk Repo Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
6.5
USD/TRY
1.84
1.88
1.92
1.9
USD/ILS
4.06
4.14
4.19
4.15
USD/ZAR
8.5
8.61
8.7
8.7
Slovakia
Key policy rate
Iceland
EUR/SKK
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
MEA Israel South Africa
2.9 3
3.2
3.6
3.7
5.9
Discount rate 5.9
4.9
4.5
Repo Rate
2.75 5
5
5
5
8.75
8.88
9
8.93
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
Asia China
8.1
8.3
8.1
7.9
2.3
2.4
2.6
3.1
Lending Rate
5.81
5.81
Hong Kong
Base Rate
India
Reverse Repo Rate
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.5
Reference Rate
5.75
6
6.25
6.25
Base Rate
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.75
3
3
3
3
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
Indonesia
5.79
South Korea
2.7
Malaysia
4.5
5.32
2.4 3.8
4.3
5.6
2.2
2.1
2.6
2.6
BN Interbank ON
Phillipines
Repo Rate
Singapore
Domestic IBOR rate
Taiwan
4.8
4.2
3.6
3.2
1.5
0.38
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Vietnam
Base Rate
0.5
0.6 8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
3.2 3.28 0.3
Discount Rate
0.4
3.28 0.3
3.28 0.3
3.28 0.3
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.5
USD/CNY
6.33
6.34
6.35
6.31
USD/HKD
7.75
7.76
7.76
7.76
USD/INR
55
55.6
55.9
55.1
USD/IDR
9680
9773
9843
9805
USD/KRW
1126
1134
1138
1123
USD/MYR
3.08
3.11
3.13
3.13
USD/PHP
41.7
42.4
42.9
42.5 1.26
1.88
1.95
2
2.12
USD/SGD
1.25
1.26
1.27
1.18
1.21
1.24
1.27
USD/TWD
30
30.3
30.4
30
USD/THB
30.9
31.5
31.9
31.5
2.05
USD/VND 22284
LatAm Argentina
0.3
Brazil
3.6
4.9
SELIC Rate
7.25
Chile
3.9
2.3
Monetary Policy Rate
4.25
4
2.9
Deposit Rate
3.3
3.7
Overnight rate
2.8
Reference Rate
Colombia Mexico
Deposit 1DY Rate
Peru Venezuela
4
3.4
3.5
3.4
24.5
26.8
29.4
28.4 Deposit Rate
7.25
7.25 4.5
8.25
8
-0.6
6
-2.2
7.6
-2.5
10.6
-3.3
5.1
-1.1
USD/ARS 0.7 -1.2
4.5
USD/BRL
2.02
2.03
2.05
USD/CLP
490
501
509
505
USD/COP
1830
1841
1850
1850
USD/MXN
12.7
13
13.2
13
USD/PEN 6
8.2
7.6
8
3.8
4.3
3.7
3.6
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
USD/VEF
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Credit Suisse Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
2.2
2.4
2.6
3
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.5
Japan
-0.5
1.7
2.6
2.8
0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3 BOJ overnight rate
Euro
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
8.2
8.1
7.9
7.7
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.2
0.25 0.9
1.1
1.1
1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.3
1.35
1.45
1
1
1.55
1.65
ECB Rate
United Kingdom
2
2
2.2
2.6
Official Bank Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.2
Overnight lending rate
1
1
1
1.5
Australia
RBA Cash Rate
3
3
2.5
2.5
Sweden
1.2
78
79
1.19 80
EUR/USD
1.22
1.22
1.2
1.19
1.57
1.57
1.56
1.54
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.99
USD/AUD
0.98
0.97
0.97
0.96
Decision Rate
USD/SEK
6.68
6.75
6.83
6.9
New Zealand
Cash Rate
USD/NZD
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.74
Switzerland
Reference Rate
USD/CHF
0.99
1
1.01
1.03
Denmark
Discount rate
USD/DKK
Norway
Deposit Rate
USD/NOK
5.86
5.92
5.98
6.05
Germany
ECB Rate
EUR/USD
1.22
1.22
1.2
1.19
France
ECB Rate
EUR/USD
1.22
1.22
1.2
1.19
Italy
ECB Rate
EUR/USD
1.22
1.22
1.2
1.19 24.7
2
2.3
2.6
7.3
7.2
7.1
2.35
1.22
77
USD/GBP
1.5
2.3
1.22
USD/JPY
USD/CAD
Canada
2
EUR/USD
7 2.75
2.75
3
3.25
2.05
2.15
2.35
2.5
2.65
2.75
2.9
3
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
EUR/CZK
25
24.9
24.8
Hungary
Base Rate
EUR/HUF
277
276
276
275
Poland
Reference Rate
EUR/PLN
3.99
3.98
3.97
3.95
Slovakia
Key policy rate
EUR/SKK
Russia
Refinance Rate
USD/RUB
31.78
31.9
32.04 32.27
Turkey
1wk Repo Rate
USD/TRY
1.79
1.81
1.82
1.83
Iceland
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
4.75
MEA Israel
Discount rate
USD/ILS
4.17
4.1
4.06
4.05
South Africa
Repo Rate
USD/ZAR
8.3
8.26
8.22
8.2
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
Asia China
8.1
4.6
Hong Kong India
6.5
7.2
7.4
7.6
Lending Rate
USD/CNY
6.32
6.27
6.23
6.2
Base Rate
USD/HKD
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.8
Reverse Repo Rate
USD/INR
53.43 52.93 52.43 51.94
Indonesia
Reference Rate
South Korea
Base Rate
Malaysia Phillipines Singapore
6
4.7
5.3
5.75
6.25
USD/IDR
9600
9500
9408
9342
USD/KRW
1109
1102
1096
1089
BN Interbank ON
USD/MYR
3
2.99
2.99
2.98
Repo Rate
USD/PHP
40.7
40.5
40.3
40
USD/SGD
1.24
1.24
1.23
1.23
USD/TWD
29.2
29.1
29.1
29
USD/THB
30.5
30.4
30.3
30.2
2
2
2
2
2.5
Domestic IBOR rate
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
Taiwan
Discount Rate
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
Vietnam
Base Rate
USD/VND
Argentina
Deposit 1DY Rate
USD/ARS
Brazil
SELIC Rate
USD/BRL
Chile
Monetary Policy Rate
USD/CLP
Colombia
Deposit Rate
USD/COP
Mexico
Overnight rate
USD/MXN
Peru
Reference Rate
USD/PEN
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
USD/VEF
3
LatAm
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
12.73 12.56 12.38 12.23
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA Japan
2
1.5
2
2.5
2.1
2
2.3
2.3
1.2
Euro
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
8.1
8.1
8.1
8
-3.2
-3.3
-3.4
-3.4
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
2.2 2.8
2.1
RBA Cash Rate
2.7
3.2
3.3
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.5
0.6
0.75
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/GBP
7.6 3.25
3.25
3.25
USD/CAD
3.25
USD/AUD
Decision Rate 2.8
0.5
EUR/USD
Overnight lending rate
Sweden
0.5
1
Official Bank Rate
Canada
New Zealand
0.25
BOJ overnight rate ECB Rate
United Kingdom Australia
Fed Funds Rate
USD/SEK
Cash Rate
6.3
6.2
6
5.9
-6.1
-6.4
-6.5
-6.4
2.7
2.7
3.12
3.45
USD/NZD
Switzerland
Reference Rate
Denmark
Discount rate
USD/DKK
Norway
Deposit Rate
USD/NOK
Germany
1
0.6
1.2
1.5
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
USD/CHF
ECB Rate
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.8
EUR/USD
France
ECB Rate
EUR/USD
Italy
ECB Rate
EUR/USD
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
1.3
2
1.1
1.1
2w Repo rate
Hungary Poland
Base Rate 1.8
1.6
2
2.7
3.3
3
2.7
2.8
Reference Rate
0.75
1
1
1.25
EUR/CZK
7
6.5
6
5.75
EUR/HUF
4.25
4
4
4
10.5
10.8
11.1
11.3
4.5
4.2
4.2
4.2
EUR/PLN
Slovakia
Key policy rate
EUR/SKK
Russia
Refinance Rate
USD/RUB
Turkey
1wk Repo Rate
USD/TRY
Iceland
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
Discount rate
South Africa
Repo Rate
USD/ILS
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
6
6.5
7
7
USD/ZAR USD/BHD
Asia China
7.4
7.7
Hong Kong 6.4
7.1
Lending Rate
USD/CNY
Base Rate
USD/HKD
India
5.4
6.3
Indonesia
5.7
5.8
Reverse Repo Rate Reference Rate
South Korea
2.8
2.8
Base Rate
Malaysia
3.7
4.3
BN Interbank ON
Phillipines
5
4.8
Repo Rate
USD/PHP
Singapore
2.4
3.7
Domestic IBOR rate
USD/SGD
Discount Rate
USD/TWD
11.6
5.9
Taiwan Thailand Vietnam
-3.1
-3.8
USD/INR USD/IDR
3.25
USD/KRW USD/MYR
Repurchase Rate
USD/THB
Base Rate
USD/VND
LatAm Argentina Brazil
Deposit 1DY Rate 4.7
5
SELIC Rate
USD/ARS 7.5
8.5
9
9
USD/BRL
Chile
Monetary Policy Rate
USD/CLP
Colombia
Deposit Rate
USD/COP
Mexico
Overnight rate
Peru
Reference Rate
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
USD/MXN 4.25
4.25
4.5
4.5
USD/PEN USD/VEF
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - HSBC Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.4
1.7
1.6
1.9
2
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
Japan
1
0
0.1
0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
0
BOJ overnight rate
0.05
0.05
0.05
Euro
-0.7
-0.5
0.1
2.3
1.8
1.8
1.7
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
11.4
11.6
11.7
0.4
0.4
0.4
United Kingdom
0.7
1.4
2.1
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.5
Official Bank Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
8.7
8.6
8.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
Canada
1.5
2.7
2.3
2.1
2.2
2
1
1
1
7
7
6.9
1.4
1.3
1.3
Australia
2.7
2.4
2.9
3.1
3.6
3.7
3.25
3.25
3.25
5.2
5.1
5
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.5
Overnight lending rate 2.7
Sweden
RBA Cash Rate
3.5
3.6
3.7
Switzerland
1.1
1
1.2
3.3
2.9
2.9
3
0.2
0.2
0.4
3
Cash Rate
7.9
7.8
7.7
0.5 1
3.5
4.9
-6.3
1.3
-6.7
0.5
-6.8
0.4
0.4
0.3
Discount rate
Norway
Deposit Rate 1
0.8
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.9
France -1.9
-1.2
-0.5
3
2.3
1.6
5.4
3.5
3.3
3.5
2.8
2.6
1.7
0.2
1.9
1.3
2
2.1
2.5
1.4
-7.1
0.5 4
2.7
0.5 2.8
0.5 2.9
3.1
2.5
3
3.25
3.5
6.3
6.2
6.1
3.2
3.3
3.3
6
-6.2
-6.3
-6.4
11.8
12.3
12.5
-6.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
6.7 10.2
6.7 10.3
6.7
4.8
10.4
-0.8
4.5 -3.1
72
1.38 72
EUR/USD
1.35
1.37
1.38
2.2
USD/GBP
1.6
1.62
1.61
2.3
2.4
USD/CAD
0.97
0.95
0.95
3.2
3.3
3.5
USD/AUD
0.95
0.95
0.95
USD/SEK
6
5.91
5.83
USD/NZD
0.73
0.72
0.72
USD/CHF
0.89
0.88
0.87
USD/DKK
5.51
5.43
5.39
USD/NOK
5.26
5.11
5.04
EUR/USD
1.35
1.37
1.38
3.7
EUR/USD
1.35
1.37
1.38
6.7
EUR/USD
1.35
1.37
1.38
EUR/CZK
25
25
24.5
7.6
EUR/HUF
280
275
275
EUR/PLN
4.1
4
4
3.8
3.6
3.8
4.1
1.4
2
-2
1.37
74
2.2
3.6
4.4
1.35
USD/JPY
2.3
2.8
ECB Rate
EUR/USD
1.9
2.3
Reference Rate
Denmark
Italy
8
Decision Rate
New Zealand
Germany
0.25
2.1
2.1
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
Hungary
0.1
Poland
2.2
1.5
1.9
2.3
2.8
Slovakia
Base Rate
6.5
Reference Rate
4.5
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.6
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
Key policy rate
Russia
1.3
1.3
2.4
3.1
7.5
8.2
7.7
7
Refinance Rate
Turkey
3.1
3.4
3
4.3
7.2
7.5
7.7
7.6
1wk Repo Rate
Iceland
EUR/SKK 8.75
8.75
8.75
8.5
5.8
6.4
5.3
5.3
3
5.4
2.2
0.7
-1.7
0.4
-0.6
-0.9
USD/RUB 6
6.5
7
7.2
USD/TRY
1wk Repo Rate
32.27 30.58 33.33 1.8
1.75
1.7
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
Discount rate
USD/ILS
3.85
3.8
3.75
Repo Rate
USD/ZAR
8
7.8
7.5
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
6.1
6.1
6.1
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
0.28
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
3.64
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
3.75
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
3.67
South Africa
2.5
2.8
2.8
3.1
4.9
4.9
5.2
5.6
Asia China
8.8
9
8.8
Hong Kong
5.1
6.9
4.9
India
6.8
6.6
7.1
8.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
Lending Rate
5.75
Base Rate 7.4
9.2
8.6
7.2
8.3
Indonesia
Reverse Repo Rate
1.9 6.5
6.5
6.5
6.5
-3
-2
-3
-3.5
-5.6
-5.6
-5.5
-5.3
Reference Rate
South Korea
3.5
3.8
Malaysia
3.9
4
7.8 7.2
Base Rate 4.8
5.2
2.7
3.3
3.3
3.1
BN Interbank ON
10.3
10.4
9.8
11.1
-4.9
-5.1
-3.1
-3.6
7.7
7.7
7.7
USD/CNY
6.3
6.28
6.26
USD/HKD
7.8
7.8
7.8
USD/INR
52
51
50
USD/IDR
9800
9750
9700
USD/KRW
1120
1110
1100
USD/MYR
3.1
3.06
3.02
Phillipines
Repo Rate
6.2
USD/PHP
41.4
41.2
41
Singapore
Domestic IBOR rate
1.7
USD/SGD
1.23
1.22
1.21
Taiwan
Discount Rate
USD/TWD
29.4
29.2
29
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
USD/THB
30.9
30.6
30.3
Vietnam
Base Rate
USD/VND 21500 21500 21500
2
2.13
2.25
LatAm Argentina Brazil
Deposit 1DY Rate 3
3.8
4.9
3.6
5
5.3
5.4
5.1
SELIC Rate
Chile
Monetary Policy Rate
Colombia
Deposit Rate
Mexico
2.4
2.7
2.9
3.9
4
4
Overnight rate
7.25
4.5
7.25
4.5
7.25
4.5
USD/ARS
5
5.22
5.45
USD/BRL
2
2.03
2.05
5
USD/CLP
490
500
500
5.25
USD/COP
1770
1750
1725
7.25
5
4.6
4.5
6.4
4.9
6
4.5
5.6
-2
USD/MXN
13.5
13.35
13.2
Peru
Reference Rate
-1.6
-0.9
-0.5
USD/PEN
2.6
2.58
2.56
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
USD/VEF
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - ING Groep Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
2
0.7
1.5
2.3
2.1
2.1
1.3
1.8
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
BOJ overnight rate
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
United Kingdom
Official Bank Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.65
0.7
0.7
0.7
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.5
USD/GBP
Canada
Overnight lending rate
1
1
1.25
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.9
2.2
USD/CAD USD/AUD
Japan Euro
-0.3
2.4
2
1.9
1.8
8
8.1
8
7.8
-2.9
-3
-3
-3.1
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.6
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.5
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.5
EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD
Australia
2.8
3.1
1.5
2
RBA Cash Rate
3.25
3
3
3
3.2
3
3
3.2
3
3
3.2
3.6
Sweden
1.5
1.5
1.3
0.8
Decision Rate
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.72
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
USD/SEK
Cash Rate
2.5
2.5
2.75
3
2.8
2.8
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.8
USD/NZD
0
0
0
0
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.8
0.9
1.1
USD/CHF
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.85
USD/NOK
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
EUR/USD
3.1
3.1
3
2.2
EUR/USD
5.8
6.3
5.9
5.4
EUR/USD
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
EUR/CZK
7.5
7.3
7.1
6.9
EUR/HUF
4.69
4.66
4.75
4.75
EUR/PLN
New Zealand Switzerland
Reference Rate
Denmark
1
2.4
2.6
Discount rate
Norway
2.7
0.9
2
Deposit Rate
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.5
1.4
1.6
1.9
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
6.7
6.6
6.5
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.5
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
10.2
10.1
10
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
2w Repo rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
Base Rate
6.5
6.25
5.75
5.5
Reference Rate
4.5
4
3.75
3.75
Germany
1 0.8
1.3
USD/DKK
France
0.4
Italy
-2
2.7
3.1
Czech Republic
0.5
3.7
3.3
Hungary
0.8
5.2
Poland
1.7
1.6
3.5
3
Slovakia
0.7
1
2.7
3.1
3.5
3.3
3.6
3.6
Key policy rate
Russia
2.9
2.9
3.4
4.7
6.8
7.1
7
6.7
Refinance Rate
8.25
8.25
8.25
8
1wk Repo Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
1wk Repo Rate
6
6
5.5
5.5
6.4
0 -1.9
-1.8
0.25
0.5
0.6
-1.9
Eastern Europe
Turkey Iceland
3.9
5.4
3.5
0.8 -4.8 13.5
13.6
13.1
13
6
6.3
6.1
5.9
2.3
-4.1 6.2
4.7 0.9
0.8 4.13
0.8 3.94
0.9 3.94
2.2
2
2.2
2.3
4.69
4.66
4.75
4.75
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
EUR/SKK
0.1
USD/RUB 7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
USD/TRY USD/ISK
MEA Israel
Discount rate
USD/ILS
South Africa
Repo Rate
USD/ZAR
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
Asia China
7.1
8.1
2.5
2.9
Hong Kong
USD/CNY
Base Rate
India Indonesia
Lending Rate 0.4
0.4
0.4
0.45
4.5
4.25
4.25
4
Reverse Repo Rate 6.5
5.1
Reference Rate
5.5
5.25
5.25
5
South Korea
Base Rate
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
Malaysia
BN Interbank ON
Phillipines
Repo Rate
Singapore
Domestic IBOR rate
Taiwan
Discount Rate
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
Vietnam
Base Rate
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
USD/HKD
7.9
7.75
7.5
7.5
USD/INR
5
5
5
5
USD/IDR USD/KRW
3
3
3
3
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
2
2.2
2.3
2.4
USD/MYR
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
USD/SGD USD/TWD
USD/PHP
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.18
1.16
1.14
1.12
3
3
3
3
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3
3
3
3
USD/THB USD/VND
LatAm Argentina
Deposit 1DY Rate
Brazil
SELIC Rate
Chile
Monetary Policy Rate
USD/CLP
Colombia
Deposit Rate
USD/COP
Mexico
1
2.3
4
4
Overnight rate
USD/ARS 7.25
4
7.25
4
7.25
4
7.25
4
USD/BRL
4.8
5
5
5.2
USD/MXN
Peru
Reference Rate
USD/PEN
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
USD/VEF
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - JP Morgan Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
2
1.5
2.3
2.5
2
2.1
1.7
2.1
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.1
-3.4
-3.5
-3.5
Japan
0
1
1.2
1.3
0
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
BOJ overnight rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.3
4.1
4.1
4.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
Euro
-0.5
0.5
0.5
1
2.5
2
2
1.6
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
11.5
11.5
11.5
11.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
United Kingdom
Official Bank Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
8.6
8.7
8.7
-1
-1
-0.7
1
1.25
1.25
1.5
7.3
7.3
7.2
7.2
-3.7
-3.6
-3.5
-3.3
RBA Cash Rate
3.25
3
3
3
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
-4.4
-4.6
-4.6
-4.7
Decision Rate
2.25
Cash Rate
2.5
-0.2
0.5
1.5
2.7
2.5
2.6
Canada
2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.2
2
2.1
Australia
2.9
2.4
2.4
2.5
1.7
3.4
2.7
3
Sweden
1.9
New Zealand
2.8
2.1 2.3
3
3
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.8
Overnight lending rate
3
3
3.25
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.3
-6.8
-5
-6.8
1
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
1.85
-8.2
3
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.5
2
0.1 2.15
0.1
2.5
2.5
0.85
0.9
1.5 3.25 4
1.7 3.4 4.4
0.9
0.9
1.8 3.6 4.4
3.85 4.4
EUR/USD
1.3
1.3
1.32
USD/JPY
78
79
79
79
EUR/USD
1.3
1.3
1.32
1.34
USD/GBP
1.62
1.62
1.63
1.65
USD/CAD
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.94
USD/AUD
1.04
1.04
1.05
1.06
USD/SEK
6.54
6.5
6.36
6.27
USD/NZD
0.82
0.81
0.8
0.79
0.92
0.92
0.87
0.86
USD/NOK
5.65
5.62
5.49
5.41
EUR/USD
1.3
1.3
1.32
1.34
Switzerland
Reference Rate
USD/CHF
Denmark
Discount rate
USD/DKK
Norway
2
Germany
1
0.8
0.9
1.6 2.1
1.6
1.8
Deposit Rate
France
-0.1
0.1
0.4
2.1
1.8
Italy
-2.5
-1.9
-1.3
3.1
Czech Republic
-1.6
2.3
3.8
Hungary
-1.1
0
0.6
1.2
Poland
1.7
1.6
1.7
Russia
2.5
2.4
Turkey
1.1
3.3
1.6
2.2 0.9
1
1.2
1.34
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.5
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
EUR/USD
1.3
1.3
1.32
1.34
2.9
2.2
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
EUR/USD
1.3
1.3
1.32
1.34
2.9
2.5
2.4
2.2
2w Repo rate
0.75
0.75
0.75
1
EUR/CZK
25
24.8
24.8
24.7
5.9
3.5
5
3.5
Base Rate
EUR/HUF
290
265
265
270
2.3
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.8
Reference Rate
EUR/PLN
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.15
2.8
3.4
6.7
7.8
7.4
6.3
Refinance Rate
3.3
4.4
7.5
5.8
6.5
6.4
1wk Repo Rate
USD/TRY
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
Eastern Europe
Slovakia
Key policy rate
Iceland
EUR/SKK 8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
5.9
6.3
5.3
5.4
USD/RUB
30.84 30.84 30.81 30.79 1.8
1.75
1.75
1.7
MEA Israel
2.5
2.9
4
5
1.3
1.3
1.5
2.5
Discount rate
South Africa
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.2
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
Repo Rate
2
2
2
2.25
USD/ILS
3.98
3.95
3.9
3.9
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
USD/ZAR
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
Asia China
7.3
7.8
8.2
8.6
2.5
3.4
3.5
3.8
Lending Rate
Hong Kong
1.6
1.9
2.9
3.6
2.5
2.6
2.7
4.6
Base Rate
India
5.4
5.3
5.5
9.8
9.3
9
Indonesia
4.2
3.9
3.5
3.9
3.4
2.2
Malaysia
3.9
3
2.2
2.9
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
Phillipines
3.9
1.9
2.8
3.6
2.3
2.4
2.3
3
Repo Rate
Singapore
3.4
2.1
3.3
4.1
4.1
2.8
3.3
3
Domestic IBOR rate
Taiwan
3.1
2.5
3.9
4.4
2.1
2
1.8
1.2
Thailand
15.6
4.7
1.9
1.3
1.9
1.1
Vietnam
6.1
5.2
6.5
6.8
7.9
9
9.9
Argentina
3.2
2.3
3.8
11
11
Brazil
2.9
3.7
4.3
4.2
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.3
SELIC Rate
Chile
4.6
4.4
3.8
4.4
2.5
3
3.1
3.2
Monetary Policy Rate
Colombia
2.3
3.3
4.3
3.1
3
3.2
Mexico
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.6
4.4
3.9
4.1
3.5
Overnight rate
4.5
4.5
4.5
Peru
6.4
6.4
6.9
7.2
3.1
3
2.8
2.5
Reference Rate
4.25
4.25
4.25
Venezuela
2.7
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
23.4
31.7
37.3
38.1 Deposit Rate
South Korea
1.9
5.75
5.75
6
6 3.5
Reverse Repo Rate
3
10
Reference Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
Base Rate
2.75
2.75
2.75
5.75
BN Interbank ON 3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5 2.3
Discount Rate
1.63
1.63
1.63
1.63
Repurchase Rate
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.2
2.2
2.2
4.1
Base Rate
USD/CNY
6.32
6.32
6.3
6.25
USD/HKD
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.8
USD/INR
54
55
55.5
56
USD/IDR
9750
9900
9900
9900
USD/KRW
1125
1125
1110
1100
USD/MYR
3.04
3
2.98
2.98
USD/PHP
41.2
41.2
40.5
40
USD/SGD
1.21
1.2
1.19
1.19
USD/TWD
29.6
29.5
29.4
29.4
USD/THB
30.5
30.3
30.1
30.1
USD/VND
LatAm Deposit 1DY Rate
Deposit Rate
USD/ARS
5
5.2
5.35
5.55
7.5
7.5
8.25
9
USD/BRL
1.98
1.95
1.95
1.95
5
5
5
5
USD/CLP
475
475
475
475
4.75
4.75
4.75
USD/COP
1775
1775
1775
1775
USD/MXN
12.5
12.2
12
11.9
USD/PEN
2.6
2.59
2.58
2.57
4.5
USD/VEF
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Moody's Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
1.2
2
Japan
1.6
1.6
2.5
3.2
2.1
1.7
2.4
2.2
0.25
0.25
0.25
8.3
8.1
4.2
4.2
8
7.9
-3.4
-3.7
0.4
0.5
-3.6
-3.4
-7.5
-7.1
-5.8
-5.7
0.46
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.35
0.28
0.3
0.4
1.7
1.8
1.85
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.2
2
Canada
EUR/USD
Official Bank Rate
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.5
USD/GBP
Overnight lending rate 3.2
2.7
3.1
3.2
2.2
2.9
3
2.4
Sweden
RBA Cash Rate
USD/CAD 3.25
3.25
3.25
3.5
5
5
5
5
2.5
2
2.5
2.75
6.3
6
5.5
5.1
USD/AUD
Decision Rate 2.2
1.9
2.7
2.8
1.7
2
2.4
2.2
Cash Rate
EUR/USD USD/JPY
ECB Rate
United Kingdom
New Zealand
0.25
BOJ overnight rate
Euro
Australia
Fed Funds Rate
USD/SEK -2.3
-2.6
-2.1
-2
-6
-5.8
-3.1
-5
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.7
USD/NZD
Switzerland
Reference Rate
Denmark
Discount rate
USD/DKK
Norway
Deposit Rate
USD/NOK
Germany France Italy
USD/CHF
ECB Rate 0
0.1
0.7
1.3
1.6
1.4
1.8
2
ECB Rate
EUR/USD 10
10
10
9.9
-0.5
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
ECB Rate
4.31
4.71
5.11
5.24
EUR/USD EUR/USD
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
EUR/CZK
Hungary
Base Rate
EUR/HUF
Poland
Reference Rate
EUR/PLN
Slovakia
Key policy rate
EUR/SKK
Russia
Refinance Rate
USD/RUB
Turkey
1wk Repo Rate
USD/TRY
Iceland
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
Discount rate
USD/ILS
South Africa
Repo Rate
USD/ZAR
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
Asia China
Lending Rate
USD/CNY
Hong Kong
Base Rate
USD/HKD
India
Reverse Repo Rate
USD/INR
Indonesia
Reference Rate
USD/IDR
South Korea
Base Rate
USD/KRW
Malaysia
BN Interbank ON
USD/MYR
Phillipines
Repo Rate
USD/PHP
Singapore
Domestic IBOR rate
USD/SGD
Taiwan
Discount Rate
USD/TWD
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
USD/THB
Vietnam
Base Rate
USD/VND
Argentina
Deposit 1DY Rate
USD/ARS
Brazil
SELIC Rate
USD/BRL
Chile
Monetary Policy Rate
USD/CLP
Colombia
Deposit Rate
USD/COP
Mexico
Overnight rate
USD/MXN
Peru
Reference Rate
USD/PEN
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
USD/VEF
LatAm
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Morgan Stanley Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
1.2
0.9
1.4
2
2.1
1.8
1.9
1.9
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.1
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.36
0.27
0.26
0.29
2.05
1.95
1.8
1.85
EUR/USD
1.19
1.15
1.19
Japan
-1.4
1.1
1.2
1.8
0.1
-0.2
-0.5
-0.5 BOJ overnight rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
0.8
2.2
1.6
2.4
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
USD/JPY
78
80
83
86
Euro
0.9
2.4
1.8
1.5
1.3
ECB Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
10.5
EUR/USD
1.19
1.15
1.19
1.22
2
2.2
2.3
2.4
Official Bank Rate
United Kingdom
Fed Funds Rate
0.8
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
USD/GBP
1.51
1.46
1.47
1.51
Overnight lending rate
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
USD/CAD
1.06
1.1
1.08
1.07
Australia
RBA Cash Rate
3
2.5
2.25
2.25
USD/AUD
0.95
0.91
0.93
0.94
Sweden
Decision Rate
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.75
USD/SEK
7.73
8.17
7.73
7.46
New Zealand
Cash Rate
2.5
2.5
2.75
3
USD/NZD
0.75
0.7
0.72
0.74
Switzerland
Reference Rate
0
0
0.25
0.5
USD/CHF
1.01
0.96
0.92
0.94
Denmark
Discount rate
Canada
2.9
2
Norway
0.9
1
1.7
2.2
2.4
1.22
0.5
USD/DKK
Deposit Rate
1.5
1.75
1.75
2
ECB Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.5
1.6
France
ECB Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
2.55
Italy
ECB Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
5.5
Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
0.25
0.5
1
Hungary
Base Rate
6.5
6.25
6
Reference Rate
4.5
4
3.75
3.75
-6
-5.5
Refinance Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.4
6.5
Turkey
1wk Repo Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
Iceland
1wk Repo Rate
Germany
1.8
1.4
USD/NOK
6.43
6.7
6.43
6.23
EUR/USD
1.19
1.15
1.19
1.22
2.65
EUR/USD
1.19
1.15
1.19
1.22
5.1
EUR/USD
1.19
1.15
1.19
1.22
1.25
EUR/CZK
25.8
25.6
25.4
25.2
5.75
EUR/HUF
270
270
267
265
EUR/PLN
4
3.97
3.95
3.93
USD/RUB
31.41
31.1
30.86 31.21
USD/TRY
1.75
1.75
1.73
USD/ILS
3.95
3.9
3.85
3.8
USD/ZAR
8
8.1
8.25
8.35
1.7
Eastern Europe
Poland
3.3
Slovakia Russia
Key policy rate 3.4
3.4
3.9
3.8
7
7
6.7
6.2
EUR/SKK 1.9
1.4
1.72
USD/ISK
MEA Israel South Africa
Discount rate 2.7
3
3.5
3.8
5.2
5.7
Repo Rate
2.5
2.5
2.75
3.25
5
5
5
5
-3.9
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/BHD USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
Asia China
7.2
7.6
7.9
8.2
2.3
2.1
3.3
3.4
Lending Rate
Hong Kong
1.6
2.5
2.9
4.5
3.2
3.6
4.3
6.9
Base Rate
India
Reverse Repo Rate
Indonesia
Reference Rate
South Korea Malaysia Phillipines Singapore Taiwan
3
3.6
4.3
3.1
2.1
2
1.8
1.5
6.06
6.06
6.06
6.06 7.7
1.5
-5.7
4.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
USD/CNY
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.27
USD/HKD
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.8
USD/INR
56
55
54
53
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
USD/IDR
9800
9750
9700
9650
Base Rate
3
3
3
3
USD/KRW
1150
1133
1115
1098
BN Interbank ON
3
3
3
3
USD/MYR
3.1
3.08
3.05
3.03
Repo Rate
USD/PHP
40.8
40.4
40.1
39.8
Domestic IBOR rate
USD/SGD
1.25
1.24
1.22
1.21
USD/TWD
29.8
29.4
29.1
28.8
USD/THB
31.3
30.9
30.5
30
USD/ARS
4.95
5.14
5.33
7
USD/BRL
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
Discount Rate
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
Vietnam
Base Rate
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
3
3
3
3
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.1
USD/VND
LatAm Argentina
Deposit 1DY Rate
Brazil
5
Chile Colombia Mexico
SELIC Rate
7.25
7.25
7.25
7.25
3.4
Monetary Policy Rate
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
USD/CLP
490
486
483
479
3.5
Deposit Rate
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
USD/COP
1800
1788
1775
1763
4
5.2
5.3
5.2
Overnight rate
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
USD/MXN
12.8
12.7
12.6
12.5
Peru
Reference Rate
4.25
4.25
4.25
4.25
USD/PEN
2.55
2.54
2.53
2.51
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
USD/VEF
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Natixis Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
Japan
BOJ overnight rate
0.1
0.1
Euro
ECB Rate
United Kingdom
Official Bank Rate
USD/GBP
Canada
Overnight lending rate
USD/CAD
Australia
RBA Cash Rate
USD/AUD
Sweden
Decision Rate
USD/SEK
New Zealand
Cash Rate
USD/NZD
Switzerland
Reference Rate
USD/CHF
Denmark
Discount rate
USD/DKK
Norway
Deposit Rate
USD/NOK
Germany
ECB Rate
EUR/USD
France
ECB Rate
Italy
1.8
-2.1
1.8
-1.4
1.8
-0.7
-0.3
2.2
1.8
1.9
1.7
2
9.3 0.1
9.3
-3.4
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.45
2.1
2.4
0.93
1.03
EUR/USD 1.1
1.17
USD/JPY EUR/USD
EUR/USD
ECB Rate
11.1
11.3
11.3
11.2
5.9
5.7
5.2
4.65
EUR/USD
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
EUR/CZK
Hungary
Base Rate
EUR/HUF
Poland
Reference Rate
EUR/PLN
Slovakia
Key policy rate
EUR/SKK
Russia
Refinance Rate
USD/RUB
Turkey
1wk Repo Rate
USD/TRY
Iceland
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
Discount rate
USD/ILS
South Africa
Repo Rate
USD/ZAR
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
Asia China
8.2
8
8.3
8.2
2.8
2.8
4.2
4.9
Lending Rate
Hong Kong
1.7
1.8
2.6
2.8
0.9
0.9
1
3.7
Base Rate
India
5.9
Reference Rate
South Korea
Base Rate
Malaysia
BN Interbank ON
Phillipines
Repo Rate
Singapore
Domestic IBOR rate 2.2
6
6
6
2.6
-2.5
USD/CNY
9.3
1.2
USD/HKD
Reverse Repo Rate
Indonesia
Taiwan
6
2
1.5
2.2
1.8
2.8
2.1
1.2
Discount Rate
USD/INR USD/IDR 2.75
USD/KRW USD/MYR USD/PHP 0.25
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
8.9
-2.8
USD/SGD USD/TWD
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
USD/THB
Vietnam
Base Rate
USD/VND
Argentina
Deposit 1DY Rate
USD/ARS
Brazil
SELIC Rate
USD/BRL
Chile
Monetary Policy Rate
USD/CLP
Colombia
Deposit Rate
USD/COP
Mexico
Overnight rate
USD/MXN
Peru
Reference Rate
USD/PEN
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
USD/VEF
LatAm
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Standard Chartered Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
Fed Funds Rate
Japan
BOJ overnight rate
0.25
Euro
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.3
United Kingdom
Official Bank Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.8
Canada
Overnight lending rate
Australia
RBA Cash Rate
Sweden
Decision Rate
USD/SEK
New Zealand
Cash Rate
Switzerland
Reference Rate
Denmark
Discount rate
USD/DKK
Norway
Deposit Rate
Germany
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
France
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Italy
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
3.25
0.25
3.25
0.25
3.25
0.25
0.45
3.5
3.75
0.45
3.75
0.45
3.75
0.45
1.7
1.55
1.8
1.85
2.05
2.1
2.25
2.25
4
EUR/USD
1.27
1.23
1.21
USD/JPY
82
83
84
1.21 85
EUR/USD
1.27
1.23
1.21
1.21
USD/GBP
1.59
1.55
1.53
1.58
USD/CAD
0.98
0.99
1
0.98
USD/AUD
1.07
1.05
1.03
1
USD/NZD
0.81
0.79
0.78
0.82
USD/CHF
0.95
0.98
1
1
EUR/USD
1.27
1.23
1.21
1.21
EUR/USD
1.27
1.23
1.21
1.21
EUR/USD
1.27
1.23
1.21
1.21
1.7
1.65
1.63
1.6
8.25
8.35
8.2
8.1
USD/NOK 1.35
1.5
1.65
1.95
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
EUR/CZK
Hungary
Base Rate
EUR/HUF
Poland
Reference Rate
EUR/PLN
Slovakia
Key policy rate
EUR/SKK
Russia
Refinance Rate
USD/RUB
Turkey
1wk Repo Rate
USD/TRY
Iceland
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
Discount rate
South Africa
Repo Rate
USD/ILS
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
6.08
6.17
6.18
6.15
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.27
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
3.64
3.64
3.64
3.64
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
3.67
3.67
3.67
3.67
5
5
5
5
7
7.1
7.2
7.3
USD/ZAR USD/BHD
Asia China
8.4
8.7
9.2
8.9
1.8
2.3
3
3.9
Lending Rate
Hong Kong
Base Rate
India
Reverse Repo Rate
6
6
6
6 0.4
Indonesia
5.4
5.7
5.7
5.8
4.5
4.8
4.4
4.4
Reference Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
6
South Korea
2.5
2.4
3.1
3.5
2.2
2.5
3.2
3.4
Base Rate
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Malaysia
3.4
3.7
4.7
5.4
1.9
2.2
2.7
2.7
BN Interbank ON
3
3
3
Phillipines
3.9
3.4
3.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.6
4.1
Repo Rate
3.5
3.5
Singapore
3.5
3
4.2
4.7
3.8
3.4
3
3.4
Domestic IBOR rate
0.4
0.4
0.4
3.25
3.3
3.4
3.4
USD/CNY
6.31
6.29
6.27
6.23
0.75
0.8
0.9
0.95
USD/HKD
7.79
7.79
7.78
7.77
8
7.75
7.5
7.5
USD/INR
55.5
55
57.5
56
5.5
5.6
5.8
6
USD/IDR
9300
9100
9300
9200 1060
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.5
2.8
2.8
2.9
3
USD/KRW
1100
1070
1070
3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.75
3.75
USD/MYR
3.07
3
3.05
3
3.75
4
2
2.5
3
3.25
4.8
5.1
5.3
5.5
USD/PHP
40.5
40
41
40.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.65
USD/SGD
1.24
1.22
1.23
1.21
Taiwan
Discount Rate
1.88
1.88
2
2.13
1.88
1.88
2
2.13
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
USD/TWD
29
28.7
28.5
28.3
Thailand
Repurchase Rate
2.75
2.75
2.5
2.5
2.8
2.75
2.55
2.6
3.5
3.6
3.75
3.9
USD/THB
31.1
30.6
31.4
31
Vietnam
6.2
8.1
10.7
12.2 Base Rate
5.2
5.7
5.8
5.3
USD/VND 21000 21000 21000 21000
LatAm Argentina Brazil
Deposit 1DY Rate SELIC Rate
7
7
7.5
8
USD/ARS
4.95
5.05
5.25
5.45
USD/BRL
2.02
2
1.95
1.92
Chile
Monetary Policy Rate
USD/CLP
475
480
475
470
Colombia
Deposit Rate
USD/COP
1785
1795
1775
1760
Mexico
Overnight rate
USD/MXN
12.5
12.5
12.4
12.2
Peru
Reference Rate
USD/PEN
2.59
2.6
2.6
2.57
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
USD/VEF
4.5
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - Societe Generale Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
2.5
1.2
1.7
2.2
Japan
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.8
-0.1
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
Euro
-0.7
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.3
United Kingdom
0.3
0.8
1.7
1.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2
8
8
8
0.5
0.5
0.5
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.7
0.25
0.25
8
8.1
8.3
8.5
0.25
0.25
Overnight lending rate
1.75
2
Australia
RBA Cash Rate 1.3
8
0.5
Official Bank Rate
1.2
0.25
ECB Rate
Canada Sweden
0.25
1.7
2.2
Decision Rate
New Zealand
-2.7
-2.5
-2.4
0.51
0.51
0.51
0.51
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.4
1.7
2
2
1.5
1.5
1.95 1.75
7.8
7.9
1.95
2.25
2.45
1.85
1.9
3.15
3.3
2.05
2.05
7.9
Cash Rate
Switzerland
0.1
0.4
0.5
Reference Rate
Denmark
0
0
0.25
3.5
3.6
3.5
Discount rate
Norway
EUR/USD
1.21
1.19
USD/JPY
83
84
1.18 86
EUR/USD
1.21
1.19
1.18
USD/GBP
1.57
1.57
1.57
USD/CAD
0.98
0.97
0.96
USD/AUD
0.95
0.93
0.96
USD/SEK
7.27
7.31
7.29
USD/NZD
0.78
0.78
0.78
USD/CHF
0.99
1.01
1.02
USD/NOK
6.12
6.22
6.23
EUR/USD
1.21
1.19
1.18
EUR/USD
1.21
1.19
1.18
EUR/USD
1.21
1.19
1.18
USD/DKK
1.3
1.6
1.9
Deposit Rate
1.5
1.5
1.75
2.4
2.4
2.3
1
0.8
1.1
1.4
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.3
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.7
France
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.5
2.7
2.5
2.1
2
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
10.6
10.8
11.1
11.3
Italy
-2.6
-2.2
-1.6
-1.1
2.1
1.9
1.4
2.9
ECB Rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
12.1
12.7
13.2
13.7
3.1
2.3
2.3
2w Repo rate
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Germany
-3
BOJ overnight rate
1.75 -2.3
2
2.25
2.25
-2.3
Eastern Europe Czech Republic Hungary Poland
Base Rate 2.9
2.5
Slovakia Russia
3.1
3.2
3.6
4
3.6
3.2
2.7
2.2
1.7
1.5
6.8
7.7
7.6
2.7 6.7
Reference Rate
4.75
4.5
4.25
4.25
10.5
10.2
10
Key policy rate
13.6
14.1
13.7
Refinance Rate
5.9
5.8
5.8
9.8
-4.7
-4.8
EUR/CZK
25
24.7
24.6
EUR/HUF
285
280
275
EUR/PLN
3.9
3.9
3.9
EUR/SKK USD/RUB
32.9
32.25 33.75
Turkey
1wk Repo Rate
5.7
USD/TRY
1.8
1.75
1.7
Iceland
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
MEA Israel
Discount rate
USD/ILS
3.8
3.75
3.7
South Africa
Repo Rate
USD/ZAR
8
7.75
7.5
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
6
6
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
Asia China
USD/CNY
6.35
6.3
6.28
Hong Kong
Base Rate
USD/HKD
7.76
7.76
7.76
India
Reverse Repo Rate
USD/INR
55
53
52
Indonesia
Reference Rate
USD/IDR
9300
9000
8700 1050
South Korea
7.7
7.8
7.5
7.5
3.2
1.5
3
1.7
3.2
2.4
3.2
3.1
Lending Rate
5.75
Base Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
4.3
3.4
4.3
3.4
4.3
3.5
4.3
3.5
3.3
3.25
3.25
3.25
USD/KRW
1140
1100
Malaysia
BN Interbank ON
USD/MYR
3.1
3.05
3
Phillipines
Repo Rate
USD/PHP
42
42
42
Singapore
Domestic IBOR rate
Taiwan
Discount Rate
Thailand Vietnam
USD/SGD
1.26
1.23
1.21
USD/TWD
29.5
29.3
29
Repurchase Rate
USD/THB
31.3
30.8
30
Base Rate
USD/VND
Argentina
Deposit 1DY Rate
USD/ARS
4.37
Brazil
SELIC Rate
USD/BRL
1.95
1.85
1.75
Chile
Monetary Policy Rate
USD/CLP
505
480
470
Colombia
Deposit Rate
USD/COP
1775
1750
1750
Mexico
Overnight rate
USD/MXN
13.35 12.75
12.5
Peru
Reference Rate
USD/PEN
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
USD/VEF
1.38
LatAm
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
01.10.2012
Economic Forecasts - UBS Real GDP (yoy %)
CPI (yoy %)
Policy Rate (%)
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Unemployment (%)
Curr Acct (% of GDP)
Budget (% of GDP)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
FX forecasts
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
G-10 USA
1.8
2.7
2.8
2.7
1.7
1.5
1.7
1.9
Fed Funds Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
8
7.9
7.7
7.6
-2.9
Japan
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.1
0
0.1
0.5
BOJ overnight rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
1.1
Euro
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.5
2.2
2
1.8
1.7
ECB Rate
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
11
11
11
10.9
Official Bank Rate
United Kingdom
2.8
0.8
2.1
0.45
0.45
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.25
0.25
0.3
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.15
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.25
EUR/USD
1.2
0.85
1
1.1
1.2
USD/JPY
78
1.1 90
EUR/USD
1.2
1.1
1
1.1
1.7
2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
2
2.2
2.3
2.4
USD/GBP
1.55
1.46
Canada
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.2
Overnight lending rate
1
1
1
1.25
7.2
7.1
7.1
7
-2.1
-2
-2
-1.9
1
1
1
1.25
1.8
2.1
2.3
2.45
USD/CAD
1.03
1.08
Australia
3.5
3
3.2
3.3
2.1
2.6
2.6
2.4
RBA Cash Rate
3
3
3
3
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
-5.2
-5.3
-5.7
-6
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.9
USD/AUD
1
1
Decision Rate
1
1
1
1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
USD/SEK
6.31
2.5
2.75
3
3.25
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
4.9
5.2
5.4
5.5
USD/NZD
0.8
0.77
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
USD/CHF
1
1.09
USD/DKK
5.74
Sweden New Zealand
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.6
1.8
1.9
2.3
2.5
Cash Rate
Switzerland
Reference Rate
Denmark
Discount rate
Norway Germany
1
0.8
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.7
France Italy
-0.5
0.1
Deposit Rate
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
ECB Rate
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
ECB Rate
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
ECB Rate
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
5.9
6.7 8.6
5.6
6.7
5.5
5.4
6.7
4.8
4.5
4.4
8.5
3.3
3.7
3.9
1.8
2
2.1
2.2
USD/NOK
5.46
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
EUR/USD
1.2
1.1
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
EUR/USD
1.2
1.1
5.5
4.9
5
5.1
EUR/USD
1.2
1.1
Eastern Europe Czech Republic
2w Repo rate
EUR/CZK
25
24
Hungary
Base Rate
EUR/HUF
280
270 3.8
Poland
Reference Rate
EUR/PLN
4
Slovakia
2.9
Key policy rate
EUR/SKK
30.1
Russia
Refinance Rate
USD/RUB
29
Turkey
1wk Repo Rate
USD/TRY
1.75
Iceland
1wk Repo Rate
USD/ISK
28.2
MEA Israel
Discount rate
USD/ILS
3.8
3.75
South Africa
Repo Rate
USD/ZAR
8.26
8.26
Bahrain
O/N Repo Rate
USD/BHD
Egypt
Re Discount Rate
USD/EGP
6.75
Kuwait
Discount rate
USD/KWD
0
Oman
Repo Rate
USD/OMR
Qatar
Repo Rate
USD/QAR
Saudi Arabia
Re Repo Rate
USD/SAR
3.75
United Arab Emirates
1wk Repo Rate
USD/AED
0
3.75
Asia China
7
8.4
8.7
8.2
2.7
3.2
3.7
4.2
Lending Rate
6.56
USD/CNY
6.3
6.1
1.85
1.9
1.95
USD/HKD
7.8
7.8
8.2
8.2
8.5
8.5
USD/INR
56
50
8
8.5
8.5
8.5
USD/IDR
8700
8700
USD/KRW
1150
1075
3.64
4
4
4
4
USD/MYR
3
2.8
3.75
4
7
7
7
7
USD/PHP
42
40
0.4
0.7
0.8
2.4
2.55
2.7
2.85
USD/SGD
1.2
1.15
Base Rate
India
Reverse Repo Rate
Indonesia
Reference Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
6.25
Base Rate
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
3
3
3.5
3.5
3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.14
3.14
3.64
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
7
6.9
6.9
6.2
3.25
3.5
0.4
South Korea Malaysia
3.4
5
4.2
5.1
2.2
3.5
3
3.5
BN Interbank ON
Phillipines
3.8
2.6
5.3
5.4
3.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
Repo Rate
Singapore
0.28
1.8
Hong Kong
Domestic IBOR rate
Taiwan
0.28
0.28
0.5
Discount Rate
1.88
2
2.13
2.25
0.92
0.98
1.04
1.1
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.35
USD/TWD
30.5
30
Repurchase Rate
2.75
2.75
3.25
3.5
3.05
3.05
3.55
3.8
3.5
4
4
4
USD/THB
30
27
Base Rate
USD/VND
0
Argentina
Deposit 1DY Rate
USD/ARS
4.95
Brazil
SELIC Rate
USD/BRL
1.85
1.7
USD/CLP
500
480
Thailand
16.3
5.8
4.4
3.9
2.4
2.7
3.2
3.5
Vietnam LatAm
Chile
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.7
2.1
2.4
3.7
Colombia
4.1
4.7
4.3
4.3
3.2
2.6
2.7
3
3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
Mexico
3.8
Monetary Policy Rate
5
5
5
5
6.3
6.7
6.5
6.5
-5.1
-6
-6.6
-4.5
Deposit Rate
4.5
Overnight rate
4.5
2.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
12.3
12.9
12.8
11.8
-7.8
-7.9
-11
-10.9
-2
-8
4.5
4.75
5
4.7
4.9
4.6
4.5
-1
-1
-1
-1.2
-1.6
-2.8
2
2
USD/COP
1790
1720
USD/MXN
13.25
11.71
2.65
2.55
Peru
Reference Rate
USD/PEN
Venezuela
Deposit Rate
USD/VEF
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |