Financial Analysis - China Railway Construction Corporation Ltd is a full service construction compa

Page 1

19.03.2013

Company Analysis - Overview Ticker:

China Railway Construction Cor

1186 HK

Currency: Sector: Industrials

Industry: Construction & Engineering

Year:

Telephone 86-10-5268-8600 Revenue (M) Website www.crcc.cn No of Employees Address 40 Fuxing Road East Haidian District Beijing China Share Price Performance in HKD Price 7.26 1M Return 52 Week High 9.54 6M Return 52 Week Low 4.72 52 Wk Return 52 Wk Beta 1.27 YTD Return Credit Ratings Bloomberg S&P Moody's Fitch

China Railway Construction Corporation Ltd is a full service construction company. The Company's services include construction operations, survey design and consulting. China Railway also has manufacturing operations, real estate operations, and logistics. The Company specializes in railway construction.

Benchmark: HANG SENG INDEX (HSI)

Hong Kong: 1186, Currency: HKD

534'024 241'621 -11.8% 6.1% 45.7% -17.6%

-

Date Date Date

12/08 31.4x 16.4x 9.4x 0.5x 2.6x 1.0%

12/09 16.4x 10.1x 5.4x 0.3x 2.0x 1.8%

12/10 23.3x 12.2x 5.6x 0.2x 1.7x 1.3%

12/11 5.4x 5.4x 3.1x 0.1x 0.7x 2.9%

12/12E 8.7x 3.4x 0.1x 1.0x 2.0%

12/13E 7.9x 3.1x 0.1x 0.9x 2.3%

12/14E 7.1x 2.9x 0.1x 0.8x 2.7%

12/08 Gross Margin 7.0 EBITDA Margin 4.5 Operating Margin 2.6 Profit Margin 1.7 Return on Assets 1.9 Return on Equity 13.8 Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/08 Current Ratio 1.2 Quick Ratio 0.6 EBIT/Interest 3.3 Tot Debt/Capital 0.4 Tot Debt/Equity 0.5 Eff Tax Rate % 18.9

12/09 6.5 4.0 2.1 1.9 2.6 13.1

12/10 6.0 3.2 1.5 0.9 1.3 7.7

12/11 7.7 4.9 2.8 1.8 2.0 12.9

12/12E 8.8 4.8 2.8 1.7 2.0 11.9

12/13E 8.8 4.8 2.8 1.8 2.1 12.0

12/14E 9.2 4.9 2.9 1.8 2.2 12.0

12/09 1.2 0.5 4.7 0.3 0.5 19.0

12/10 1.1 0.4 4.1 0.5 0.9 29.1

12/11 1.1 0.5 3.4 0.6 1.5 21.6

-

Outlook Outlook Outlook

-

Business Segments in HKD Sales (M) Construction Operations 484272 Other Business Operations - Real Estate Dev. & Logistic Serv. 48702 Survey, Design and consultancy operations 8989 Manufacturing Operations 8981 Taxes and Surcharges -16921

9%

Geographic Segments in HKD Mainland China Outside China Reconciliation

Sales (M) 530227 20718 -16921

4% 3%

2%3% 2%

Valuation Ratios P/E EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA P/S P/B Div Yield Profitability Ratios %

84%

93%

Construction Operations Other Business Operations - Real Estate Dev. & Logistic Serv. Survey, Design and consultancy operations Manufacturing Operations

Mainland China

Outside China

Reconciliation Taxes and Surcharges

Current Capitalization in HKD Common Shares Outstanding (M) Market Capitalization (M) Cash and ST Investments (M) Total Debt (M) Preferred Equity (M) LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) Investments (M) Enterprise Value (M)

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12337.5 80929.0 107067.5 119458.9 0.0 0.0 1230.5 94550.9


Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings China Railway Construction Cor Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price 7%

12

20%

37%

40%

mars.12

avr.12

62%

62%

64%

67%

69%

69%

69% 57%

59%

4 2

0%

0 mai.12

juin.12

juil.12

Buy

août.12

Hold

sept.12

Sell

oct.12

Price

nov.12

déc.12

janv.13

févr.13

Target Price

Date

Buy

Hold

Sell

Date

28-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 31-Dec-12 30-Nov-12 31-Oct-12 28-Sep-12 31-Aug-12 31-Jul-12 29-Jun-12 31-May-12 30-Apr-12 30-Mar-12

59% 57% 69% 69% 69% 67% 64% 62% 62% 57% 40% 37%

34% 36% 23% 23% 31% 33% 36% 38% 38% 43% 60% 42%

7% 7% 8% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21%

19-Mar-13 18-Mar-13 15-Mar-13 14-Mar-13 13-Mar-13 12-Mar-13 11-Mar-13 8-Mar-13 7-Mar-13 6-Mar-13 5-Mar-13 4-Mar-13 1-Mar-13 28-Feb-13 27-Feb-13 26-Feb-13 25-Feb-13 22-Feb-13 21-Feb-13 20-Feb-13 19-Feb-13 18-Feb-13 15-Feb-13 14-Feb-13 13-Feb-13 12-Feb-13 11-Feb-13 8-Feb-13 7-Feb-13 6-Feb-13

Price Target Price 7.26 7.24 7.30 7.52 7.30 7.73 8.27 8.37 8.27 8.20 8.09 8.01 8.20 8.13 7.87 7.80 8.02 7.91 8.08 8.34 8.23 8.27 8.30 8.31 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.29 8.43

9.46 9.46 9.46 9.46 9.46 9.46 9.46 9.46 9.46 9.53 9.46 9.46 9.46 9.46 9.26 9.26 9.40 9.40 9.40 9.42 9.42 9.42 9.54 9.40 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.30

0

Broker

Analyst

Sun Hung Kai Securities UOB Kay Hian Standard Chartered Deutsche Bank AMTD Financial Planning Limited HSBC Masterlink Securities China International Capital Corp Goldman Sachs EVA Dimensions Macquarie JPMorgan Nomura Bank of China International Capital Securities Corp Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. Morgan Stanley Guotai Junan Jefferies DBS Vickers GuoSen Securities Co Ltd CCB International Securities Ltd Religare Capital Markets Barclays SinoPac Credit Suisse

EVA YIP MARK PO BEN HARTWRIGHT PHYLLIS WANG KENNY TANG SING HING ANDERSON CHOW JAMES CHUNG WU HUIMIN TIAN LU CRAIG STERLING SAIYI HE KAREN LI GE WENJIE LI PAN LI XIAOLU JOSEPH HO KEVIN LUO GARY WONG JULIAN BU RACHEL MIU ETHANE CHENG ELIZA LIU PETER WILLIAMSON PATRICK XU VIVIAN LIU INGRID WEI

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Recommendation buy buy outperform buy buy neutral sell accumulate neutral/neutral buy neutral overweight neutral hold buy buy Overwt/Attractive neutral hold buy buy neutral buy overweight buy outperform

SinoPac

57%

2 Credit Suisse

40%

4

Barclays

6

6

Religare Capital Markets

42%

8

GuoSen Securities Co Ltd

60%

8

CCB International Securities Ltd

60%

10

Jefferies

34%

DBS Vickers

36%

Guotai Junan

23%

Morgan Stanley

23%

Capital Securities Corp

38%

Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd.

38%

Nomura

43%

10

Bank of China International

80%

36%

JPMorgan

7%

Macquarie

8%

21%

Goldman Sachs

8%

Brokers' Target Price 14

EVA Dimensions

33%

31%

12

China International Capital Corp

0%

HSBC

0%

Masterlink Securities

0%

Deutsche Bank

0%

AMTD Financial Planning Limited

0%

UOB Kay Hian

0%

Standard Chartered

0%

Sun Hung Kai Securities

100%

Price

Broker Recommendation

Target price in HKD

Target

Date

10.40 9.53 9.90 9.74 9.30 9.00 7.20 8.70 9.50

15-Mar-13 7-Mar-13 28-Feb-13 28-Feb-13 4-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 25-Jan-13 21-Jan-13 20-Jan-13 17-Jan-13 11-Jan-13 9-Jan-13 9-Jan-13 20-Dec-12 19-Dec-12 6-Dec-12 15-Nov-12 14-Nov-12 31-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 22-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 12-Oct-12 16-May-12 2-Nov-11

9.64 11.60 10.10 7.76 9.50 10.53 10.90 7.59 7.30 8.20

10.50 11.85 6.40 6.40


19.03.2013

China Railway Construction Cor

Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type

Ownership Statistics Shares Outstanding (M) Float Short Interest (M) Short Interest as % of Float Days to Cover Shorts Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership

37%

62.88% 37.12% 0.00%

63%

Institutional Ownership

Retail Ownership

Insider Ownership

Pricing data is in HKD Top 20 Owners: Holder Name SOCIAL SECURITY FUND BLACKROCK HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MA CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN VANGUARD GROUP INC BAILLIE GIFFORD AND JP MORGAN DEUTSCHE BANK AG DEUTSCHE BANK AG DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV INVESTEC ASSET MANAG PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL SHINHAN BNP PARIBAS FMR LLC GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OT STATE STREET HSBC HOLDINGS PLC BNP PARIBAS INV PART MACKENZIE FINANCIAL JYSKE INVEST

United States China Britain Hong Kong Germany Luxembourg South Korea Others

45.82% 14.52% 8.41% 8.13% 6.68% 2.75% 2.37% 11.32%

Institutional Ownership Distribution Investment Advisor Government Mutual Fund Manager Unclassified Others

77.71% 14.46% 7.71% 0.06% 0.07%

11%

2% 3% 7%

46%

8% 8%

15%

United States

China

Britain

Hong Kong

Germany

Luxembourg

South Korea

Others

TOP 20 ALL

Position 188'754'500 128'553'896 104'343'882 102'088'800 101'221'828 99'459'500 94'058'957 85'802'995 -76'992'004 38'002'701 24'338'766 23'437'996 23'168'500 16'016'385 14'771'000 14'394'039 14'307'500 12'624'500 10'280'000 9'511'000

Position Change 0 -950'500 0 0 181'000 0 0 0 0 0 412'500 0 8'723'500 -2'422'727 0 -105'500 686'000 -431'000 -5'720'000 377'000

Market Value 1'370'357'670 933'301'285 757'536'583 741'164'688 734'870'471 722'075'970 682'868'028 622'929'744 -558'961'949 275'899'609 176'699'441 170'159'851 168'203'310 116'278'955 107'237'460 104'500'723 103'872'450 91'653'870 74'632'800 69'049'860

% of Ownership 9.09% 6.19% 5.03% 4.92% 4.88% 4.79% 4.53% 4.13% -3.71% 1.83% 1.17% 1.13% 1.12% 0.77% 0.71% 0.69% 0.69% 0.61% 0.50% 0.46%

Report Date

Position

Position Change

Market Value

% of Ownership

Report Date

31.12.2011 15.03.2013 08.03.2013 31.12.2012 31.12.2012 19.07.2012 28.01.2013 08.02.2013 08.02.2013 31.07.2012 31.12.2012 31.01.2013 28.09.2012 31.01.2013 31.05.2012 18.03.2013 21.05.2012 31.12.2012 31.12.2012 31.01.2013

Source Co File ULT-AGG EXCH ULT-AGG MF-AGG EXCH ULT-AGG EXCH Short MF-AGG MF-AGG ULT-AGG MF-AGG ULT-AGG MF-AGG ULT-AGG MF-AGG ULT-AGG MF-AGG MF-AGG

Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name

Geographic Ownership

Geographic Ownership Distribution

0%

12337.5 90.9%

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Source

Institutional Ownership

Country CHINA UNITED STATES HONG KONG UNITED STATES UNITED STATES BRITAIN GERMANY GERMANY UNITED STATES GUERNSEY UNITED STATES SOUTH KOREA UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES BRITAIN FRANCE CANADA DENMARK

0% 8%

0%

14%

78%

Investment Advisor

Government

Unclassified

Others

Mutual Fund Manager


Company Analysis - Financials I/IV China Railway Construction Cor Financial information is in HKD (M) Periodicity:

Fiscal Year

Equivalent Estimates 12/01

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

81'105 75'097

105'194 97'669

149'693 140'342

176'461 164'766

245'847 228'746

391'436 365'851

523'680 492'065

534'024 493'077

583'842

634'823

675'260

Gross Income - Selling, General & Admin Expenses (Research & Dev Costs)

6'008 5'765 37

7'524 6'476 27

9'351 6'967 97

11'695 7'878 292

17'101 10'722

25'585 18'002 5'858

31'615 24'381 10'130

40'947 26'517 10'206

51'098

55'985

62'158

Operating Income - Interest Expense - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)

332 392 20 -430

1'131 743 -83 -418

2'503 886 57 -485

4'002 1'305 94 -1'284

6'379 1'423 952 -1'115

8'374 1'384 -351 -2'085

7'601 1'367 -280 -476

14'979 3'803 -135 -803

16'163

17'794

19'921

Pretax Income - Income Tax Expense

350 169

888 389

2'045 581

3'886 1'520

5'119 966

9'426 1'788

6'990 2'034

12'113 2'619

13'236

14'856

16'283

Income Before XO Items - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax - Minority Interests

181 0 84

499 0 168

1'464 0 282

2'366 0 5

4'153 0 70

7'638 0 150

4'955 0 81

9'495 0 33

0.15

0.30

0.61

0.39

0.77

4'083 0.36 0.11 33.9

6'438 0.52 0.18 29.9

4'874 0.39 0.11 29.1

9'461 0.77 0.12 15.7

10'212 0.83 0.15 0.18

11'276 0.92 0.17 0.18

12'401 1.02 0.20 0.20

27'866

30'295

32'752

Income Statement Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold

Diluted EPS Before XO Items

0.01

0.04

Net Income Adjusted* EPS Adjusted Dividends Per Share Payout Ratio %

0.00 0.0

0.00 0.0

0.00 0.0

2'360 0.30 0.00 0.0

Total Shares Outstanding Diluted Shares Outstanding

8'000 8'000

8'000 8'000

8'000 8'000

8'000 8'000

12'338

12'338 12'338

12'338 12'338

12'338 12'338

EBITDA

1'988

3'005

4'848

7'566

11'075

15'607

16'562

26'288

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

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Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity:

12/01

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

7.20

8.09

8.94

Balance Sheet Total Current Assets + Cash & Near Cash Items + Short Term Investments + Accounts & Notes Receivable + Inventories + Other Current Assets

57769.7662 77748.5593 101712.747 12'773 16'044 20'891 447 280 369 10'196 12'215 17'562 16'756 27'723 35'810 17'598 21'487 27'081

138497.63 209843.064 271449.337 27'993 65'162 70'833 160 37 111 27'416 37'160 44'080 51'110 25'114 97'098 31'818 82'370 59'328

344420.27 444226.476 65'963 91'438 6'482 7'832 58'996 80'053 141'213 185'152 71'766 79'752

Total Long-Term Assets + Long Term Investments Gross Fixed Assets Accumulated Depreciation + Net Fixed Assets + Other Long Term Assets

17'030 1'321 19'682 8'303 11'379 4'330

18'663 1'829 21'323 9'052 12'271 4'564

22'422 2'121 26'061 10'506 15'555 4'746

29'181 2'057 34'754 12'636 22'118 5'006

39'716 1'884 47'247 16'806 30'441 7'391

49'937 4'503 62'585 22'411 40'174 5'260

68'731 12'426 80'183 30'094 50'089 6'216

77'249 13'626 96'335 39'993 56'342 7'280

Total Current Liabilities + Accounts Payable + Short Term Borrowings + Other Short Term Liabilities

59'550 22'067 7'348 30'136

78'596 28'022 9'450 41'124

103'594 37'388 12'473 53'733

147'652 48'545 22'196 76'911

179'224 85'220 23'315 70'689

235'762 115'817 14'286 105'659

309'993 150'496 36'607 122'890

392'961 184'187 82'106 126'668

Total Long Term Liabilities + Long Term Borrowings + Other Long Term Borrowings

13'161 1'666 11'495

15'316 3'713 11'603

16'865 5'445 11'420

14'389 6'347 8'043

15'569 6'253 9'316

24'208 17'464 6'744

34'472 28'552 5'920

47'492 41'997 5'495

Total Liabilities + Long Preferred Equity + Minority Interest + Share Capital & APIC + Retained Earnings & Other Equity

72'712 0 581 1'506 0

93'911 0 796 1'705 0

120'459 0 1'047 2'629 0

162'042 0 231 8'551 -3'145

194'793 0 598 53'386 782

259'970 0 924 14'011 46'481

344'465 0 977 55'538 12'172

440'454 0 1'196 58'048 21'777

2'088

2'500

3'675

5'637

54'766

61'417

68'686

81'022

74'799

96'412

124'135

167'679

249'559

321'386

413'151

521'475

0.19 0.17

0.21 0.20

0.33 0.29

0.68 0.52

4.39 4.20

4.90 4.83

5.49 5.37

6.47 6.30

Total Shareholders Equity Total Liabilities & Equity Book Value Per Share Tangible Book Value Per Share

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Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity:

12/01

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

97 1'656 472 300

332 1'874 621 1'027

1'182 2'345 469 1'659

2'360 3'564 103 2'898

4'083 4'696 -952 -1'524

7'488 7'233 -767 5'378

4'874 8'961 -882 -7'812

9'461 11'309 -1'420 -38'765

10'207

11'249

12'512

Cash From Operating Activities + Disposal of Fixed Assets + Capital Expenditures + Increase in Investments + Decrease in Investments + Other Investing Activities

2'525 606 -2'705 -284 79 -812

3'854 757 -4'322 -344 414 -1'358

5'655 946 -5'209 -117 169 -1'010

8'925 1'143 -9'667 -102 246 -4'925

6'302 1'329 -12'059

5'141 1'477 -19'532 -1'355 137 1'450

-19'415 1'491 -14'520 -252 11 498

-14'622

-14'335

-13'121

-3'993

19'332 513 -14'242 -331 60 -2'664

Cash From Investing Activities + Dividends Paid + Change in Short Term Borrowings + Increase in Long Term Borrowings + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings + Increase in Capital Stocks + Decrease in Capital Stocks + Other Financing Activities

-3'115 0

-4'852 0

-5'221 0

-13'305 -2'156

-14'723 -1'136

-16'663 -1'400

-17'822 -2'105

-12'772 -1'450

8'070 -6'661 44 0 -196

12'895 -9'227 0 0 -251

16'008 -11'896 0 0 -503

27'718 -18'385 0 0 2'143

29'357 -33'945 0 0 43'576

34'547 -30'030 0 0 585

39'295 -23'304 0 0 -226

85'786 -30'003 0 0 -168

1'257

3'418

3'610

9'320

37'852

3'702

13'660

54'164

666

2'419

4'043

4'940

29'432

6'371

979

21'977

-181

-468

446

-742

-5'756

5'090

-14'390

-33'934

-13'327

8'477

9'913

22

-50 3'958 -0.06

1'080 5'505 0.06

52 9'734 -0.09

-4'602 -9'015 -0.51

6'212 10'120 0.41

-13'421 3'078 -1.17

-30'953 23'339 -2.75

Cash Flows Net Income + Depreciation & Amortization + Other Non-Cash Adjustments + Changes in Non-Cash Capital

Cash From Financing Activities Net Changes in Cash Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) Free Cash Flow To Firm Free Cash Flow To Equity Free Cash Flow per Share

-0.02

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Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity:

12/01

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

31.4x 16.4x 9.4x 0.5x 2.6x 1.0%

16.4x 10.1x 5.4x 0.3x 2.0x 1.8%

23.3x 12.2x 5.6x 0.2x 1.7x 1.3%

5.4x 5.4x 3.1x 0.1x 0.7x 2.9%

8.7x

7.9x

7.1x

3.4x 0.1x 1.0x 2.0%

3.1x 0.1x 0.9x 2.3%

2.9x 0.1x 0.8x 2.7%

8.8% 4.8% 2.8% 1.7% 2.0% 11.9%

8.8% 4.8% 2.8% 1.8% 2.1% 12.0%

9.2% 4.9% 3.0% 1.8% 2.2% 12.0%

Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings EV to EBIT EV to EBITDA Price to Sales Price to Book Dividend Yield Profitability Ratios Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Operating Margin Profit Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) Tot Debt/Capital Tot Debt/Equity

7.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1%

7.2% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 20.7%

6.2% 3.2% 1.7% 0.8% 1.1% 55.0%

6.6% 4.3% 2.3% 1.3% 1.6% 59.8%

7.0% 4.5% 2.6% 1.7% 1.9% 13.8%

6.5% 4.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.6% 13.1%

6.0% 3.2% 1.5% 0.9% 1.3% 7.7%

7.7% 4.9% 2.8% 1.8% 2.0% 12.9%

0.97 0.39 0.81 0.81 4.32

0.99 0.36 1.38 0.84 5.26

0.98 0.37 2.41 0.83 4.88

0.94 0.38 2.57 0.84 5.06

1.17 0.57 3.25 0.35 0.54

1.15 0.49 4.73 0.34 0.52

1.11 0.42 4.09 0.49 0.95

1.13 0.46 3.38 0.61 1.53

1.23 9.40 4.33 4.41

1.37 10.13 4.53 4.45

1.22 7.95 4.16 3.84

1.16 7.51 2.96 5.84

1.37 9.64 4.36 5.99

1.44 10.27 4.03 4.18

1.15 7.71 3.18 3.03

43.8%

28.4%

39.1%

18.9%

19.0%

29.1%

21.6%

Others Asset Turnover Accounts Receivable Turnover Accounts Payable Turnover Inventory Turnover Effective Tax Rate

48.2%

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Company Analysis - Peers Comparision Latest Fiscal Year: 52-Week High 52-Week High Date 52-Week Low 52-Week Low Date Daily Volume

Current Price (3/dd/yy) 52-Week High % Change 52-Week Low % Change Total Common Shares (M)

Market Capitalization Total Debt Preferred Stock Minority Interest Cash and Equivalents

Enterprise Value

CHINA RAIL CN-H

CHINA RAIL GR-H

CHINA COM CONSH

12/2011 9.54 15.01.2013 4.81 30.03.2012 7'563'500

12/2011 4.98 10.01.2013 2.48 30.03.2012 16'696'500

12/2011 8.43 23.01.2013 5.75 05.09.2012 12'782'070

ZHUZHOU CSR 12/2011 30.25 02.01.2013 16.38 26.07.2012 4'094'776

7.26

3.88

6.69

22.90

-23.9% 50.9% 12'337.5

-22.1% 56.5% 21'299.9

-20.6% 16.3% 14'825.0

-24.3% 39.8% 1'084.3

80'930

77'362

97'971

24'829

100'663.6 970.4 80'520.6

130'576.0 9'330.0 60'314.0

106'045.0 10'739.0 45'170.0

647.9 121.0 2'158.8

183'800

154'416

19'909

443'319.3 417'448.9 467'694.0 508'533.0 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 21'822.9 22'290.2 22'322.3 24'268.5 3.7x 3.6x 3.8x 3.7x 0.68 0.61 0.67 0.74 9.5x 8.7x 7.9x (2.8%) 51.3% 34.4% 5.3% 4.8% 4.8%

75'857

442'216.0 418'599.0 459'520.7 502'956.7 0.4x 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x 18'977.0 19'609.0 18'794.1 20'996.6 8.5x 8.2x 8.2x 7.5x 0.32 0.31 0.33 0.38 10.1x 9.8x 9.4x 8.3x (3.1%) 23.0% 20.9% 26.7% 4.7% 4.1% 4.2%

294'281.0 280'093.0 295'062.1 329'738.3 0.6x 0.6x 0.6x 0.5x 21'465.0 22'252.0 24'549.0 27'984.5 7.7x 7.4x 6.6x 6.3x 0.76 0.72 0.71 0.79 7.4x 7.8x 7.5x 6.8x 7.9% 17.3% 16.8% 21.2% 7.9% 8.3% 8.5%

7'079.1 7'079.1 6'545.9 8'114.9 1.9x 1.9x 2.9x 2.3x 1'402.0 1'402.0 1'253.8 1'604.2 9.7x 9.7x 14.9x 11.5x 1.09 1.09 0.89 1.18 16.8x 16.8x 20.5x 15.5x 21.4% 42.8% 10.7% 33.9% 19.8% 19.2% 19.8%

155.5% 60.5% 4.627x 1.024x 5.926x

181.7% 61.7% 7.676x 4.897x 2.989x

151.0% 56.7% 5.938x 3.353x 4.776x

12.2% 10.6% 0.462x -1.078x 42.973x

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-

BBB+ 23.01.2013 -

-

-

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Valuation Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

EPS

P/E

Revenue Growth EBITDA Growth EBITDA Margin

LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 1 Year 5 Year 1 Year 5 Year LTM CY+1 CY+2

Leverage/Coverage Ratios Total Debt / Equity % Total Debt / Capital % Total Debt / EBITDA Net Debt / EBITDA EBITDA / Int. Expense

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FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

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FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Credit Ratings S&P LT Credit Rating S&P LT Credit Rating Date Moody's LT Credit Rating Moody's LT Credit Rating Date

FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |


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