CER October 2013 by Seana Liu

OCTOBER 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 10 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

电商大时代房地产变局背后从国富到民富

Transaction accepted China enters the digital commerce era 焦点瑞典 Sweden Spotlight

2013ฤ10Ꮬఓ

EDITOR’S NOTE | 编者的话

电

子商务在中国飞速发展，积聚成新的经济体，并呈现出诸多新

OCTOBER 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 10 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2013ฤ10Ꮬఓ

特征，也带来更多的新问题。电商企业坚定地步入开放平台之

路，用自营体系建立口碑，吸引流量；同时用开放平台丰富产品，提升盈利能力。在这样的大趋势下，应如何健康长久地发展？如何避免重蹈传统零售行业的覆辙？大数据时代的营销发生了巨变，电商企业应怎样利用好大数据，让成交更为精准？城镇化是当前的热门。金融学家巴曙松指出，应将房地产行业置

‫א‬഍վ൐օ

于城镇化大背景和产业不同阶段来把握和考察，劳动力结构调整、休闲

٤ׁӉѕऍФ޲ ՞‫ھ૾֦ھݛ‬

时间增加、空间价值改变均昭示着住宅市场全面上升的时代已近尾声。中外贤哲不约而同地认识到民富是立国的根本。管子曰：“凡治国之道，必先富民。”亚当·斯密则在《国富论》中写道：“一国国民

Transaction accepted China enters the digital commerce era ࢒‫ ׌‬೓‫ ׍‬Sweden Spotlight

每年的劳动，本来就是供给他们每年消费一切生活必需品和便利品的源泉。”《中国经济怎么了》作者徐瑾认为，斯密没有详细区分国家财富与民众财富，两者之间的冲突与矛盾也未引起足够的重视。而在不断陷

Executive Editor ᓍ‫ ܠ‬ Deputy Executive Editor ঃᓍ‫ ܠ‬ Editor-at-large ߲‫ ཽۈ‬ Associate Editors ‫૷ܠ‬

入“国富民穷”循环的中国，这恰是无法回避的考验。应重新审视和反 Liu Chen Philip Liu Graham Earnshaw Brenda Yang, Deng Dan

China Economic Review, English Editor ‫ ૷ܠ‬Oliver Pearce Staff Writer ᓟষཽ Don Weinland Interns ᓐಯ Miljan Glenny

Art Editor ගၣ‫ ૷ܠ‬Jason Wong Sales Director ሾ၉ᔐପ Pierre Zolghadri Account Managers ሾ၉ளಯ Allen Xu, Ralph Wang, Jerry Cheng, Riikka Koponen Distribution Manager खቲளಯ Seana Liu

思国家之手在民间经济的隐形作用，让国家回归到“看不见的手”。然而，市场经济的经典理论解决不了很多社会问题，因为任何理论都有其局限和边界。

o say that China’s internet shopping market is big is to state the obvious. But just how big? US$540 billion big by 2016,

according to a recent projection by consultancy Bain & Company. That compares to US$110 billion in the UK, which has the biggest per head e-spending globally. What is less well known, but directly related to e-commerce, is the rapid rise of the China’s e-payment market and the emerging battle between the nation’s thriving internet giants and conservative but hugely powerful traditional financial institutions for control of this pie. In April-

Publisher ߲‫ۈ‬૦৩ China Economic Review Publishing Address ࢐ᒍ The Plaza Building, 102 Lee High Road London, SE13 5PT, England

June alone, non-financial firms handled US$196 billion in online transactions. On a single day last November China’s biggest e-payment firm processed US$1.3 billion in orders. The question

Room 1801, 18F, Public Bank Centre, 120 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong ISSN 2073-2570 Hong Kong printer 01 Printing Limited Suite M, 3/F, Tower 3, Kwun Tong Industrial Centre, 448 Kwun Tong Road, Kowloon ਓস‫އ‬ኯ Hong Kong ሧভ +852 3174 6136 Shanghai ࿟਱ +86 21 5187 9633-811 Editorial Department ‫ ݝ૷ܠ‬letters@chinaeconomicreview.com Sales Department (Ads) ሾ၉‫(ݝ‬ਓস) ads@chinaeconomicreview.com

October 2013

now is: Will the government allow private enterprises to extend their presence in a profitable economic sector or will they judge that it is time for the state to pocket some of the rewards? 版权所有，未经版权所有人明确的书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式或媒介全部或部分翻印或转载本刊内容。所有内容除特别标明外，均为本刊采编人员完成。文章中提到的货币除特别说明外均指人民币。 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE CONTENT OF THIS PUBLICATION CANNOT BE REPRODUCED IN PART OR IN WHOLE BY ANY PERSON IN ANY JURISDICTION WITHOUT WRITTEN APPROVAL FROM THE COPYRIGHT HOLDER.

目录 CONTENT

8 16

ॖෂ৺ူ ࢟࿜ࡍဟࡔ

ቤ਋‫ފ‬

The House View

8 市场不是万能的

10 Reform and the regulators

Month in Review 12 ௡ୡ

14 News briefs

ᓜ౺

19 16 房地产变局背后

Column 18 Ordering a new growth order 22 Learning the China waltz

20 运用之妙存乎一心

Cover story ॖෂ৺ူ

28 Transaction accepted

25 大趋势

Report 32 掘金大市场 40 网络营销蝉蜕龙变

36 Eyeing the horizon

39 Mobile money wars

October 2013

目录 CONTENT

Cover story Transaction accepted UnionPay is just waking up to the massive potential of China’s e-payment bonanza

જᄌ

44 Apple crumble

48 从虚拟到实体

45 The state of state reform

49 发现之旅

46 The painful lure of China

64 从国富到民富

47 Up, down or sideways?

65 期盼中国资金

60 Dirty laundry on show 62 Knock-on effects

ୡ࢛ ྡྷ࢜ 50 携手创新之国

Spotlight: Sweden 51 Following the road of innovation

52 直通瑞典

53 Nordic connections

56 快时尚成功之道

58 The future of fashion

ఘᒦਪ

Looking at China

66 看电视

ည૚Ą᯺ᔇᇝᎊ଑ 68 乡村尼姑

October 2013

67 The trouble with television

Travel journal 69 Picking up the trash

新观察

市场不是万能的市场竞争的经典理论解决不了很多社会问题文 | 章台柳

上

个世纪八十年代末至九十年代

关于环境问题，现在也常常可以听到

己的看法。在这一过程中，经济学理论并

初，“放任自由市场，限制政府作

这样乐观的言论，相信人类终究可以通过

不能代替专业学者的研究。只有在积累了

用”的经济学理论风靡一时。荣获1992年

市场方法找到解决问题的钥匙。而持不同

足够多的专业知识后，再结合经济学的理

诺贝尔经济学奖的加里·贝克尔教授还在

观点者却认为，恰恰是人类的贪婪欲望，

论和思维方式，才能有助于做出理性的判

《生活中的经济学》里，将这一经济学理

才是破坏环境的真正凶手。企图通过市场

断。

论推广至社会生活的各方面。

方法解决环境问题，恰如积薪救火、饮鸠

这样就会发现一个有趣的现象。如果

止渴，反而会使环境更加恶化。

贝克尔教授在写于1995年的一则短评里，对于将在4年之后启动的欧洲统一

用经济学理论去观察政治、社会、教育、

于是，在激烈的辩论中，双方都竭力

货币，抱持着负面的看法。现在看起来，

自然环境各个特定领域的问题时，如果经

寻求客观证据来证明自己的论点。市场乐

似乎颇有先见之明；另外，贝克尔教授在

济理论与特定领域的专家意见发生冲突，

观派们就会引证说：时至今日，英国的煤

写于1992年的一篇短评里提到，苏联解体

究竟是经济学家的观点更正确？还是行业

炭并没有被耗尽，伦敦街头并未被马粪所

之后所形成的独联体各国，只有保持各自

内专家的观点更正确？

淹没，全世界的森林也并没有被中国人砍

的独立，做为独立自主的经济体，相互竞

伐殆尽……

争，才是共同富裕之道。

贝克尔教授认为，许多学者们所深为忧虑的环境恶化问题，完全是杞人忧天，

但悲观派们则会提到：工业污染的有

贝克尔教授做出上述判断所依据的，

夸大其辞。马尔萨斯教授曾经担心人口增

害物质长期累积，缓慢释放，待到被发觉

正是市场竞争的经典理论。只要能够避免

长的速度超过了地球承载的极限；杰文斯

之时，往往已经痼疾难返了。《增长的极

出现垄断，企业之间的自由竞争就会促进

教授在1865年也曾经担心过煤炭储量可能

限》就举出大量的悲观事例，说明环境恶

经济发展和社会进步。

耗尽，从而影响英国的经济增长。但是事

化、资源枯竭问题真的是已经越来越严重

实证明，即使是杰出的思想者，他们的预

了，而并不是少数思想者的庸人自扰。

不过，民族国家毕竟与商业企业不同。独立战争胜利后，美国的政治舆论都

言也是错误的。所以，贝克尔教授认为，

面对歧议，应该如何抉择？最好的办

在宣扬“各州独立，形成松散联盟”的观

只要放任市场，聪明的商人们总会有办法

法就是要尽量了解科学家的研究成果，在

点。但是，当时美国的开国诸贤们却认

解决环境难题。

详尽占有原始资料的基础上，逐渐形成自

为，形成松散联盟的美洲，力量涣散，无法在险恶的世界中确保新生国家的安全。所以，贤者们仅仅是凭借着个人的崇高威望，扭转了流行的观点，最终形成了统一的美国。在这个案例里，似乎是政治原则战胜了经济学理论。当然，也可以举出完全相反的实例。二战后的英国，虽然是战胜国，却早已没有了往昔大英帝国的荣光。做为老大帝国诸多遗留问题之一的英镑汇率问题，就困扰着英国的政治家们。综合考虑了诸多的复杂因素之后，英国决定维持高估的英镑币值。这样的决策，固然不无道理，但却严重地扼杀了英国本土的经济活力，从而使得英国愈来愈无力维护其欧洲强国的地位。想当年，设若是经济学家拥有决策

仅仅依靠市场方法难以有效解决环境问题

October 2013

权，英国的情况也许会更好一些。

THE HOUSE VIE W

Reform and the regulators Reform of ﬁnancial oversight would beneﬁt from a clearer and less – not more - complex regulatory structure

alk of reform in China is cheap, and steps toward real change are increasingly costly. China watchers read pomp and circumstance into the State Council announcement that it would create a new financial regulator The new regulator, charged with coordinating monetary policy and maintaining financial stability, will not reduce the roles of the current oversight lineup, a tangled web including the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) and China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) The agency is a disappointment for those waiting for an omni-regulator, one that would have veto power over China’s various supervisory bodies and the means to battle stifling bureaucracy. Instead, China should brace for an additional layer of red tape to be wrapped around the financial sector. Imagine adding another booming

October 2013

voice to the investigation on internet finance that the State Council announced on August 1. The People’s Bank of China, CBRC, CSRC, China Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security and the Legal Affairs Office will all chime in on the online financing platforms of firms such as Alibaba and Ping An Insurance. There’s hardly room for another opinion. Adding new oversight bodies bodes even more poorly for those working towards reform, namely because it is powerful institutions such as these that inhibit change. China is in the process of drafting several plans for reform. These include a blueprint for urbanization, which is due out this year, as well as a comprehensive framework for opening the capital account. The plans are highly anticipated and the world’s financial

markets are waiting in earnest for a timeframe for yuan liberalization. Unfortunately, when a deadline for allowing free exchange of the yuan finally arrives there won’t be much fanfare as long as regulators feel emboldened to interfere. In the case of yuan liberalization, the process is doomed to suffer continuous setbacks as long as the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) remains powerful. Regulators such as SAFE rely on a closed capital account to stay relevant. Free exchange will give it little purpose and cost people jobs and influence. This is why Premier Li Keqiang had to fight both the banking and securities regulators to push through plans for a free trade zone in Shanghai, where the yuan will reportedly be convertible. When taking the pulse of reform in the country, observers will watch the strength of financial regulators A sure sign that China is preparing once and for all to allow its currency to flow freely will be the dismantling of bodies such as SAFE. But ditching the foreign exchange administration isn’t in the cards. In fact, the agency is only gaining power. In early August, the central bank said it would create a new agency, via SAFE, to help invest China’s US$3.5 trillion in foreign reserves. Building up regulators and agencies such as this is the same as erecting a barrier to reform.

CO - S P O N S O R E D A R T I C L E

WGC-HSBC Champions return hails dawn of new era for Asian golf

GC-HSBC Champions is set to reinforce its reputation as ‘Asia’s Major’ with the announcement of the highest quality field of golfers ever assembled in Asia. More than 40 of the world’s top 50 players, including three current Major champions, are scheduled to line up for the $8.5 million showpiece at the Sheshan International Golf Club, Shanghai (31st October to 3rd November 2013). Leading the way are 2013 US Open Champion Justin Rose, 2013 Open Champion, Phil Mickelson, 2013 USPGA Champion, Jason Dufner, World Number Four Rory McIlroy, defending Champion Ian Poulter and in-form World Number Six Henrik Stenson. Playing for an increased prize fund of $8.5 million in the recently elevated WGC-HSBC Champions, there will be more at stake than ever for the world’s best as they compete in the fourth and final World Golf Championships of 2013. For the first time, the HSBC Champions will become part of the PGA TOUR’s FedExCup schedule, with money earned counting as official money on the PGA TOUR, and the winner earning a three-year exemption on the PGA TOUR. The HSBC Champions will also award full FedExCup points, plus the 10 percent premium awarded by all World Golf Championships compared to a regular PGA TOUR event. With these changes the HSBC Champions is now in line with the other three World Golf Championships played in the United States and is also a key part of the 2013 European Tour’s Final Series. HSBC Global Head of Sponsorship and Events Giles Morgan said: “The landscape of Asian golf has changed beyond all recognition in the last decade and the WGC-HSBC Champions has been the catalyst for this incredible growth. Ten

years ago it would have been inconceivable to imagine more than 40 of the world’s top 50 players taking part in an event in Asia but here we are preparing for just that and the most international field ever assembled in the region is heading to Shanghai. Guy Kinnings, Global Head of Golf, IMG, “We are very proud of the WGC-HSBC Champions and the partnership we have forged with HSBC. It has been very exciting and satisfying to watch it grow in stature each year since our first event in 2005. The WGC-HSBC Champions is now both Asia’s flagship event and one of the leading golf tournaments on the global golf calendar. We believe the 2013 WGC-HSBC Champions will mark an exciting new era of this great tournament and look forward to continuing to work with our partners HSBC, the International Federation of PGA Tours and the CGA.” China Golf Association Executive Vice President and Secretary General Zhang Xiaoning said, “We are very happy to sanction this prestigious event and have a World Golf Championships here in China. It shows how far golf has progressed here and we would also like to pay tribute to HSBC who have helped, through the HSBC Champions, to further the growth of the game of golf in China and Asia in the past few years. We are sure the event will continue to play an important role to help grow the game of golf and improve the competition level of China.” The following marquee players have won the coveted WGC-HSBC Champions title; David Howell, YE Yang, Sergio Garcia, Francesco Molinari and Phil Mickelson – the only one to have won the title twice, Martin Kaymer and, as referenced above, Ian Poulter, who became the latest to join that impressive roll of honour in 2012.

October 2013

聚焦

综合制造业呈总体扩张趋势 9月汇丰中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）初值为51.2，高于8月的50.1，达6个月以来最高；9月初值超出市场预期，制造业呈总体扩张趋势，显示中国制造业开始走向复苏。

人民币兑美元累计升幅超2% 今年以来，人民币兑美元中间价累计升幅达2.26%。汇率强劲的主要原因是美联储维持QE规模使美元指数走软，中国经济企稳复苏。专家预计今年人民币汇率将维持在6.1左右，不会破6。如升幅太大危及实体经济，央行或大力干预。

财税改革将公布细化方案经济学界在9月“莫干山会议”上就财税体制改革进行讨论。国家发改委副主任张晓强近期透露，关于如何扩大地方政府财权的看法还不一致，预计“三中全会”将公

到2020年中国卫星导航和位置服务产业用户将居世界第一

布财税改革细化方案。有消息称，方案或包括“营改增”范围扩大、遗产税开征、

受贿、贪污、滥用职权案作出一审判决。

787-9替换空客公司的竞争机型A330、

房产税扩大试点和资源税改革等。

数罪并罚，决定对其执行无期徒刑，剥夺

A340以及A350-900。

政治权利终身，并处没收个人全部财产。

海归人数年增近50%

判决预示着薄政治生命的终结。即便其上

2020年卫星导航服务超4000亿

中国社科出版社发布最新中国留学发展报

诉，也将无济于事。薄是第三名因贪腐罪

中国卫星导航定位协会的白皮书称，到

告显示，去年留学人员回国数量达27.29

名被判刑的前政治局委员。

2020年将建成北斗全球卫星导航定位系

万人，同比增46.56%。近5年回国的留学人员近80万人，接近前30年的3倍。未来几年，中国或迎来留学回国人员比出

中国重工拟募资近85亿元

国留学人员多的海归高潮。据麦可思的一

停牌近4个月后，中国重工披露总募资近

份报告分析，目前归国留学生与未出过国

85亿元的定增预案，其中逾30亿用于收

李嘉诚抛售大陆物业

的“211院校”毕业生薪水基本相当。

购超大型水面舰船等军工重大装备总装资

近期，李嘉诚旗下的长江实业及和记黄埔

产。中国重工在预案中称，海军已成为优

相继宣告或将抛售百佳超市、上海陆家嘴

稿酬最低标准拟千字百元

先发展军种，并正由近海防御型建设转向

东方汇经中心OFC写字楼、广州西城都

国家版权局官网发布《使用文字作品支付

远海机动作战能力建设。预计未来20至30

荟广场和停车场，涉及金额约为410亿港

报酬办法(修订征求意见稿)》，拟将原创

年，海军装备需求将保持强劲增长。

元。地产商王石在微博上发言称：“这是

模将居世界第一，年产值将超过4000亿元人民币，用户数量将超过8亿。

一个信号，小心了！”

作品的版税率提高到5%~15%，原创作

统，届时卫星导航与位置服务产业用户规

公司与市场

品的基本稿酬标准提高到每千字100~500

未来20年需5580架新飞机

元。不少作家指出，从1980年9月实施至

波音9月初发布中国市场预测，未来20

温州房价大幅下跌

今的800元稿酬所得税起征点过低。

年，中国将需要5580架新飞机，总价值

国家统计局数据显示，今年8月，70城市

7800亿美元，按价值计算，宽体机占最大

中仅温州的新建商品住宅价格同比下降

薄熙来政治生命终结

比例，达4000亿美元。波音集团高层称，

2.3%，其余均上涨。与2011年初的峰值

济南市中级人民法院于9月22日对薄熙来

争取以787梦想飞机家族中的787-8、

相比，目前温州商品房价格平均缩水幅度

October 2013

个人购买电动车最高补贴6万元

“三座小山”小米、奇虎、京东在未来市

国家4个部委要求今年至2015年特大型城

场可能会存在更大的机会，对现在的移动

市或重点区域新能源汽车累计推广量不低

互联网创业者，创业不见得去上市，并购

于1万辆。今年国家财政对个人购买纯电

也是条好出路。当前VC/PE市场处于“募

动乘用车，最少补贴3.5万，最高补贴6万

资难、退出难”的两难境界。不过，低潮

元；纯电动客车最高补贴50万元。

期虽然还没有探到底，但“底”很快会到

调查与分析地产富豪平均财富上升两成多 2013胡润房地产富豪榜显示，王健林以财富1010亿元蝉联首富，这是他4年

来。2013年的冬天就是整个创投和PE界的谷底，所以IPO开闸的时候是整个创业和PE回暖的时候。当前VC/PE正在向左右两个方向走，向左走是往早期走，往天使投资走；向右走是往并购方向走。”

内第3次名列房地产榜首富，财富比上年

面对近期行业内并购数量密集的态

上升124%，目前他直接及间接持有万达

势，倪正东认为：“不像前几年向中间

商业地产61%的股份，地产占个人财富的

走，向成长资本方向走是大势所趋、与时

80%。杨惠妍家族、陈丽华分别以财富

俱进。”

1425亿、350亿居第二和第三。共有50位富豪上房地产榜，门槛和平

B2C已成电商市场领导者

均财富均为历年最高。上榜门槛比上年提

易观数据显示，2013年第二季度网

高25%，达到75亿元。平均财富比上年提

络零售市场规模已达4029.2亿，这个数据

高22.5%，达到157亿元。身价百亿及以

不单包括B2C，还包括C2C，如像淘宝、

上的富豪比上年增加9位，达到33位。平

腾讯这样一些企业。整体环比增长达到

均年龄53岁。北京和广东仍然拥有最多房

11%。C2C占整电子商务的份额出现下滑

为26%。温州正面临楼市危机、民营经济

地产企业，分别有14人和12人上榜，占整

的趋势，而B2C的份额出现更高、更强势

危机和高利贷泡沫的多重困扰。

个房地产榜的一半多。接下来是上海和福

的增长。

建，分别有5人和4人上榜。在今年胡润百

易观国际高级分析师宋阳认为，C2C

电信手机或预装阿里移动应用

富榜上，房地产也重新成为上榜人数最多

已经基本完成了电子商务作为市场的教育

据媒体报道，中国电信与阿里巴巴达成协

的行业，有281人上榜，占总人数23.5%，

者和开启者的角色。而作为未来电子商务

议，将在中国电信手机中预装阿里巴巴移

相当于每4个人中有一人主要从事房地产

发展的重要环节或重要的参与者，B2C

动应用，其中包括淘宝、往来等产品。阿

行业。财富占总榜单的28%，相当于每十

已经正式登上市场，并作为市场领导者出

里巴巴的移动应用将会大部分安装在中国

块钱的财富中，有将近三块钱是来自房地

现。B2C市场的交易规模，在2013年第二

电信3G合约机中。

产行业。今年百富榜前10位富豪中，有6

季度达到1572亿，环比上涨18%。同样可

位从事房地产。榜上市值最大的民营房地

以看到电子商务发展的规律，在一季度出

中兴华为再赢337调查

产公司前3名依次是万达1550亿元、碧桂

现了较大幅度的下滑，但是在第二季度开

美国国际贸易委员会发布的初裁决定称，

园731亿元、龙湖588亿元。胡润表示：

始缓慢增长。18%跟历史数据相比，相对

中兴通讯和华为公司并未违反337条款，

“前50位房地产富豪基本上都在国内销

比较缓慢。宋阳相信，在2013年下半年，

不侵犯原告TPL公司起诉指控的芯片专利

售，几乎都还没做到国外去。”

增长速度会超过上半年。

权。今年6月，这两家公司曾在有关无线 3G设备的337调查案中首次初裁获胜。

纵观市场格局，天猫、京东、腾讯

移动互联网寻出路

B2C仍然占据前三甲，但腾讯B2C包括腾

移动互联网成为最大的投资热点。

讯易购和其他一些腾讯的电商企业。苏宁

汽车出口量同比下降10%

据清科私募通数据统计，2013年上半年

易购作为目前增长非常快的电商企业，在

商务部数据显示，去年中国汽车出口占总

投资案例数60起，披露投资金额1.29亿

8月份同样提出了平台开放策略。宋阳相

产量的比例仅为5%，出口金额占全球贸易

美元。清科集团创始人、董事长兼CEO

信，随着苏宁易购的发展，能够带来更多

总量1%，出口汽车的平均价格仅为1.3万

倪正东指出，移动互联网时代的创业与

新的数据上的惊喜。

美元。海关数据显示，今年前7个月，中国

并购面临“三座大山”“三座小山”。目

汽车累计出口量同比下降10%。

前对于移动互联网是创业与并购的时代。

（本栏目内容根据公开信息整理）

October 2013

MONTH IN RE VIE W

NEWSBRIEFS

Chinese milk companies to get $4.9b in subsidies

China announces new electric car subsidy program

Chinese milk powder makers are set to receive US$4.9 billion in government subsidies to support sector consolidation, Reuters reported. Yili Industrial Group (600887.SZE), China Mengniu Dairy (2319.HKG), Feihe International (ADY. NYSE), and Heilongjiang Wondersun Dairy will all benefit from the subsidies. The government wants the Chinese milk powder sector to grow in order to compete with international rivals. Imported brands such as Danone (BN.EPA) and Nestle (NESN.VX) saw their market share grow due to a milk scandal in 2008 where milk powder that was tainted with melamine killed six infants and made many more seriously ill.

China is introducing a new round of subsidies for fuel-efficient vehicles as part of its efforts to curb pollution, Bloomberg reported. The central government will provide as much as US$9,800 toward the purchase of an all-electric passenger vehicle and as much as US$81,600 for an electric bus, according to a joint statement by the National Development and Reform Commission and finance, science and industry ministries. Fuel-cell vehicles, which are powered by hydrogen, were included for the first time in the plan but subsidies for hybrid cars were included only in a separate plan with far lower incentives.

Sino-EU talks to open door to free-trade pact

China earmarks $13b on 2013 energy development

The European Union is preparing to hold talks with China on easing business relations, leaving room to discuss a freetrade pact, Reuters reported, citing EU officials. Brussels and Beijing want to encourage billions of euros of new investment between the EU and China. Last year, the EU became China’s biggest trade partner with trade between the two economies growing to US$580 billion. Bilateral trade has doubled since 2003 to over US$1.3 billion per day but China receives just 2% of the EU’s investment abroad.

China plans to spend US$13.07 billion on oil and gas exploration this year in order to secure future supply, Reuters reported, citing state media. Oil and gas investment in China has risen from US$3.1 billion in 2002 to US$11 billion in 2011, the official Xinhua news agency said. More than 5 billion tons of petroleum reserves and 2.6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas were discovered between 2008 and 2011. As the world’s biggest energy consuming country, China has promised to cut its growing dependence on overseas oil and gas supplies.

China raises holdings of US mortgage bonds

China opens door to six foreign hedge funds

China remains the biggest foreign buyer of US debt and increased its holdings of US government agency debt and mortgage-backed securities in July, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing data from the US Treasury Department. The purchases broke the previous buyout record of US$16.9 billion in April, and are the latest sign the country hasn’t stepped away from funding the US, analysts said. China was a net buyer of treasury notes and bonds in May and June when many other investors cut back their holdings amid signs that the Federal Reserve could reduce its bond purchases.

Chinese regulators have approved a trial program in Shanghai to allow foreign hedge funds to raise yuan from domestic institutions for foreign investment, The Wall Street Journal reported. Each hedge fund will be allowed to accumulate up to US$50 million worth of yuan in China. Despite it being far smaller than a similar program set up in 2006 for domestic investors, the program has significance as China’s leaders have pledged to move away from a command economy. Hubert Tse, a partner at the Shanghai-based law firm Boss & Young said: “This is a very groundbreaking development, regardless of the initial size of this pilot program.”

October 2013

China eyes a seat at $4tn global service talks China is looking to get in on talks that will rewrite the rules for the US$4 trillion global trade in services, Financial Times reported. The US, the EU and almost two dozen other countries last year launched talks towards a new Trade in Services Agreement, or TiSA, which covers about 70% of global trade in services. Meetings between US and Chinese officials have taken place recently and it is unclear whether the US would, or could, block China from taking part. China has also held talks with the EU, said people close to the negotiations.

Zhejiang city selected as pilot for land reform Chinese government officials have designated Haining, a city in China’s coastal Zhejiang province, as a pilot for reform that would allow for easier sales of collectively owned rural land, South China Morning Post reported. The city is awaiting final approval to promulgate a series of “groundbreaking” policies, which officials described as a “powerful weapon” to spur economic growth. According to officials with knowledge of the reform, rural land for residential use

in Haining would hit the property market and allow local farmers to sell houses to developers or urban residents freely as part of an urbanization drive.

October 2013

专栏

房地产变局背后应将房地产行业放到城镇化大背景和产业不同阶段来把握和考察文 | 巴曙松金融学家

今

巴曙松

年以来一直排在前

善后，铁路基本形成了网络，电车的繁荣

业放到城镇化，放到产业的不同阶段来把

几位的词汇就是城

拓展到了郊区，高速公路的发展带动了汽

握和考察。

镇镇化。从宏观经济来看，经

车业的繁荣和城市群的发展，所以不能就

盖房子是给人住的，所以劳动力怎

过过宏观政策的及时调整，接

城镇化谈城镇化，而要把它放到更宽广的

样流动是影响这个行业最根本的一个驱动

连连几个季度基本稳定在合理

视野上才具有洞察力。

力。从经济演变的历史来看，劳动力在三

的的区间范围内。政策下一步

不同时期的文献都在谈城市群，但是

大主要行业之间的配置直接影响了不同地

的的重点更多会转向一些偏中

城市群覆盖的范围是有变化的。文献上提

区的业态：即农业、制造业、非贸易服务

长长期的结构性改革和调整，

出城市群的概念，其实最开始是在汽车时

业和贸易服务业。近几十年来，农业人口

其其中城镇化布局是最受关注

代，那时汽车100公里要开一两个小时。

占总人口的比重一直在下降。制造业在工

的的一个课题。

随着高铁时代的到来，现在城市群的范围

业化时期经历过一个上升期，在达到峰值

单独看城镇化问题或单独看产业发

拓展到了300公里甚至更远。既有技术和

时期后出现了回落。非贸易服务业开始是

展、单独看房地产似乎是互不相关的几个

产业因素，也有相应的房地产业态和价值

比较低的，在工业化后期也就是制造业转

课题，但是在梳理发达国家走过的道路

链的变化，这些力量对房地产行业的影响

型升级时期会有一个持续上升期，上升到

时，我们发现其实在经济发展的不同阶

更为深远。

高位水平。而贸易服务业在开始的起点比

段，起推动作用的主导产业是不一样的，主导产业背后的技术支持体系也是不一样

较低，然后出现稳步上升。

劳动力结构变化

从这个背景去看房地产领域，也就是

的，与之相匹配的房地产业态也是不一样

在工业化和城市化的加速阶段，以深

在不同时期，房地产需求随着劳动力在不

的。应该把这几个因素整合起来进行把握

圳为例，大量中低端劳动力涌入，大量加

同业态之间的重新分布是不一样的，因此

和判断。

工制造业涌现。而随着中低端产业大量地

不能把过去的经验简单照搬到未来的新型城镇化阶段。

以欧美国家城市建设所走过的道路来

向中西部转移，深圳的房地产业态必然与

看，商业城市的早期是建设运河，工业城

过去不一样，去年深圳人口首次出现了负

以人口流动为例，今年上半年第三

市的早期主要是铁路的繁荣。工业城市完

增长。所以提示房地产业界，要把这个行

产业首次超过第二产业成为中国经济增长的第一大支柱，这在不同地区的分化差异更大。这一趋势会影响房地产的业态。在这三大产业的劳动力配置中，美国提供了参照的案例。美国的农业劳动力占总劳动力的0.1%，GDP占1%；制造业劳动力占20%，GDP占22%；服务业劳动力占 79%，GDP占77%。不少有远见的企业家到美国房地产试水，投资后会有深刻的体会：产业结构不一样，导致了房地产业态价值链的不同。与中国在制造业占主导时期相比差异很大。美国很重要的经验之一就是资本对农业的投入。城镇化和农业现代化是相结合的，因为农业现代化和资本的投入，会不断释放出农业劳动力，为城镇化提供了大

城镇化的发展催生大量的服务和休闲需求

October 2013

量人力资源，为城市的发展提供了动力。

中国未来的产业发展线索之一，就是人口从农业流向工业、从工业流向服务业，不断再配置。这个配置的过程就影响到房地产的价值链和业态。从统计意义上看，中国农业人口占 35%，很多人认为高估了，因为有一部分是农民工。农业贡献的GDP只有10%，而制造业劳动力占比30%，贡献了47%的 GDP，服务业劳动力占比36%，GDP占比43%。劳动力配置出现了急速变化，适应于制造业主导时期的房地产业态不一定适用或肯定不适用于服务业主导的劳动力配置业态。而且不同城市的配比差异也很大：一线城市农业劳动力占比1%，跟美国差不多；第二产业占37%，第三产业占63%；二线城市的第一、第二、第三产业劳动力分别占4%、49%、47%；而三线城市还是改革开放初期的比例水平。现在要有多业态、跨地区的经验，意味着不同地区的产业结构和劳动力配比结构是不同的，因此需求差异很大。房地产特别挣钱的时代在接近尾声

休闲时间增加城镇化的发展催生大量的服务和休闲

多人去看是因为争议很大，我就是这样。

美国最典型的一个数据就是80%的高

需求。全球范围内劳动力平均工作时间在

销售方分析，这部电影的主流观众是三四

科技制造业集中在100个最大的城市里，

持续不断下降。发达国家每年的平均工作

线城市平均年龄20到21岁的女性，她们向

所以能够集聚和承担这些成本。将成长性

小时数也在不断下降。从发达国家的经验

往这样的生活。这也表明电影院在向三四

的产业集中到城市中心，而一些中小型制

看，人口规模和休闲时间的不断增加是服

线城市延伸，为居民提供了文化休闲的可

造业因为成本上升会被推到近郊，与这个

务业发展非常重要的驱动力。

能性。

配置相应的房地产价值链也是不一样的。

空间价值调整

近尾声，无论怎么辩解，房地产特别挣钱

房地产住宅市场全面上升的时代在接

很多工业技术推动了城市人口规模的迅速增长和劳动力的解放，20世纪很多服务业的崛起，导致了工作时间进一步减

第三个就是空间线索，直接影响到房

的时代在接近尾声。稀里糊涂挣钱，表现

少，休闲时间多了，新行业不断涌现。比

地产业态。空间线索的含义就是产业和人

在哪里？买了地，还没开发，结果在这个

如电影，去年以来让很多文化界人士感到

口的大量集聚，产生了分工的细化，导致

过程中，土地涨了一大截，土地上涨贡献

意外的是，很多电影随便就卖到几个亿。

了规模经济效率的提高。

的利润占了50%、60%、70%。类似面包

我也去院线问过客户经理，他们的解释比

中国电子产业为什么有竞争力？因

师，赚钱的来源是卖面包，面粉涨了，结

较接地气：大家认为买10元钱的盗版碟看

为在珠三角地区一小时车程范围内，不用

果带动面包涨了。中国港台地区以及日本

不清楚，而随着收入上升、休闲时间增多

库存，直接找上下游产业都有。但是，

的房地产也有过这个发展阶段，而这个时

和电影院增多，花50元钱在电影院里看不

产业和人口的集聚推高了土地成本、生活

代正在过去。怎样找到房地产行业的新增

觉得贵，接受了这个价位，也讲究环境和

成本，就会把一部分承受不了高成本的

长点，值得我们关注。

音响，电影院销售就很好。

企业推到城市的外围。这个空间价值调整

（本文根据巴曙松在清科2013中国

的过程也是房地产业态发展变化的重要推

房地产基金高峰论坛上的演讲整理，未完

动力。

待续）

这些分析很有意思。再做大数据的分析，最近争议很大的电影《小时代》，很

October 2013

COLUMN

Ordering a new growth order Beijing should embark on a new approach to growth

etween 1978 and 2012, China’s GDP grew at aan average annual rate of about 10% – from o US$341 billion to US$8.3 U ttrillion (at 2012 prices) – lifting more than 500 Andrew Sheng m million Chinese out of poverty in the process. p Much of this was due to M aan export-led industrializzation and urbanization sstrategy that opened up new opportunities in the n rrapidly expanding citiies, where labor, capital, Xiao Geng ttechnology and infrasstructure came together to form supply capacities. But this urban-based, exportled growth model also created more challenges than it can now handle: Property bubbles, traffic jams, pollution, unsustainable local government debt, land-related corruption and social unrest related to unequal access to social welfare. As a result, a shift toward a new consumption-based growth model that emphasizes stability, inclusiveness and sustainability is at the top of China’s agenda. China is searching for a new “growth order” for its restlessly expanding cities. The current economic growth model considers key factors of production such as land, labor, capital and total factor productivity (a measure of

October 2013

efficiency). But this narrow focus on output neglects the economy’s human dimension – that is, how growth affects ordinary Chinese citizens’ lives. A growth order, by contrast, emphasizes the configuration of sociopolitical and economic institutions, including norms, procedures, laws and enforcement mechanisms, to achieve social objectives. such as improved living standards, a healthier natural environment and a harmonious and innovative society. The growth order’s stability will depend on institutionalized and effective coordination between the state, the market and society – a major challenge, given the divergent interests within and among these groups. But, more important, much of the growth

order’s effectiveness will depend on the relationship between the central and local governments in the delivery of public services for the market. Indeed, contrary to popular belief outside China, the Chinese state is not monolithic; it is a highly complex bureaucracy with many layers of government and quasi-government institutions that do not always conform to central directives. The central government is in charge of national or systemic interests, deploying legal, regulatory and broad monetary and fiscal policies to achieve its ends. But the state interacts with private enterprises, individuals and civil society mainly through local governments and local offices of national regulatory agencies. A distinctive feature of the Chinese

growth order is that local governments compete actively against each other for jobs, revenue, investment and access to fiscal and human resources. This is because local governmentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; leaders are appointed centrally, and, until recently, promotion has been based largely on the ability to generate GDP growth at the local level, leading to over-investment in the economy as a whole. Hence, the interplay between local and central governments is complex, particularly in terms of revenue sharing and responsibility for providing public services. Although the central government may be committed to reforms, implementation at the local level can be very uneven, owing to parochial and vested interests. For example, since 2008, when the central authorities tried to boost growth to combat the global crisis, local governments expanded their investment capacity through shadowbanking vehicles that sought to circumvent restraints on bank credit. Because local governments receive 50% of total national fiscal revenue, but account for 85% of total fiscal expenditure, they try to supplement their budgets through land sales. In 2012, Chinese local governments received US$475 billion (RMB2.9 trillion) in revenue from land and property sales, compared with US$980 billion in other local revenue. Compared to the private sector, local governments and state-owned enterprises tend to have access to significantly cheaper funding, with the gap between official interest rates and shadow-banking borrowing costs reaching as much as 10 percentage

points. Cheap funding and land revenue have led to excess infrastructure and industrial capacity. From 2008 to 2012, fixed-asset investment in China amounted to US$22.2 trillion, or 2.6 times more than Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 2012 GDP. Rebalancing the economy by shifting toward domestic consumption and avoiding over-investment will require major fiscal and monetary reforms, as well as structural reforms to delineate land-use rights more clearly. It will also require revising the framework for revenue sharing between central and local governments, as well as transparency in local-government finance. These reforms stand at the center of the state-market debate because the private sector, caught in the complex interplay between central-local power sharing, can easily be crowded out. Thus, creating a new growth order requires Beijing to align institutional structures and incentives so that local

governments and the market can play to their strengths. The market must be allowed the space to innovate, while the state must implement the necessary institutional and procedural reforms. Striking the right balance between market-based product innovation and state-led institutional innovation will be the main challenge that China faces in the years ahead.

Andrew Sheng, President of the Fung Global Institute, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and is currently an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Xiao Geng is Director of Research at the Fung Global Institute. (Published in partnership with Project Syndicate. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2013)

October 2013

专栏

运用之妙存乎一心以全新的视角思考中国企业的未来发展战略和市场定位文 | 王方华上海交通大学安泰经管学院前院长

王方华

对

于市场营销学界的

国管理类畅销书，以简洁的语言、精辟的

专家和从事市场营

思想、创新的理论成为企业战略和市场营

在艾·里斯和杰克·特劳特的定义

销的人员来说，“定位”

销领域中不可多得的一套权威著作，在美

中，“定位首创于产品。一件商品、一项

一一词现在一点也不陌生，但

国一出版即受到众人瞩目，我们相信，它

服务、一家公司、一家机构，甚至是个

是是在1972年，美国当代营

们在中国也同样会光芒闪烁。

人……都可以加以定位。然而，定位并不

销销大师艾·里斯和杰克·特

普利司通/火石轮胎销售公司董事长

是指产品本身，而是指产品在潜在消费者

劳劳特在美国《广告时代》杂

苏尼尔·库马说：“现实世界的市场营销

心智中的认知，即产品在消费者心智中的

志志上发表《定位新纪元》之

人员发现，花费大量的精力也很难学会企

地位”，“定位，就是要替你的商品或品

前前，恐怕没有多少人知道这

业战略的一个重要的要素—聚焦，艾·

牌找到一个适合的‘字眼’或‘概念’嵌

个字眼。“定位”的产生和

里斯和杰克·特劳特就是教会我们懂得如

入消费者的心中，而不会迷失在传播的丛

流行离不开以上两位大师创新的思维和准

何‘聚焦’的最成功的老师。”在阅读这

林中”，“世界上大部分的著名品牌在某

确的描述。此后，他们再度联手合作的一

套系列读物的过程中，我们为作者丰富、

种意义上都代表了一种简单”。在这套系

本营销学名著《定位》，再次兴起市场营

真实、不同行业的聚焦定位的案例所深深

列读物中处处折射出作者睿智的思想。

销学界的一股“定位”潮流。

地触动。这套系列读物，在通俗之中不乏

《22条商规》是艾·里斯和杰克·特

面对复杂的经济环境，所有的企业

透彻的理论，在说理之中不乏精彩的案

劳特联手的又一部名著，为了消除市场营

都面临如何准确定位的问题。如何在新的

例，让读者不仅从美国公司定位的胜利与

销过程的神秘和误区，他们总结了数年来

机遇下，找到适合的公司定位、找到产品

失败之中寻求经验和教训，更是从中小型

对市场基本原理和问题的研究，把成果浓

的营销定位、打造具有竞争力的品牌、有

公司通过有效定位并取得成功中找到希

缩归纳成影响与决定市场营销成败的22条

效运用市场营销网络，是众多企业关注的

望。艾·里斯和杰克·特劳特渊博的知

定律。他们以深入浅出、精练的语言告诉

焦点。“定位”从某种意义上讲，就是企

识、丰富的实战背景、对于案例的信手拈

读者，只有当你理解并掌握市场法则时，

业根据所处的环境，塑造其产品的特殊形

来，以及他们对定位理论的新发展、新变

才能设计出卓越的市场营销计划。“经理

象，寻找在市场上的特定位置。“定位” 主要取决于消费者或用户如何认识该产品，取决于他们对产品的评价，所以， “定位”实际上是一种心理效应。几年前，不少中国企业在发展战略上选择了大而全的多元化模式，多种产品同时并存，消耗企业大量的资源，这样的模式可持续吗？有没有更加适合中国企业发展的思路和理论？上海交通大学中国企业发展研究院的研究人员基于上述问题，一直试图寻找国内外文选和案例，以供我国企业高管和市场营销人员阅读与借鉴。 “蓦然回首，那人却在，灯火阑珊处。” 由当代“定位”大师艾·里斯和杰克·特劳特等美国营销专家合著的系列读物使我们兴奋不已，《22条商规》《聚焦》《品牌22律》《互联网商规11条》，这四本美

化的介绍，都使我们产生了深厚的兴趣。

October 2013

不少中国企业在发展战略上选择了大而全的多元化模式

公司“定位”实际上是一种心理效应

们常常会以为，只要市场营销计划设计得

业务上。该书还提出一个有意思的论点，

视的四大变革，互联网正在更多方面改变

好，组织得好，再加上资金支持，就一定

即“在生产和理财轮番成为公司的战略进

人们的生活。在互联网时代，最成功的品

会有效”，但是“如果市场营销计划失

程重点之后，现今公司的重点应该转移到

牌将是一种“交互性”的品牌、全新的品

策，那么无论你多么精明，也不论预算有

市场营销上。既懂财务又懂市场营销的总

牌、独特的品牌和抓住时机的品牌。该书

多大，都毫无例外地是在浪费金钱”。

裁才是当今最有竞争力的管理者。”如

正是基于这一契机，用11条简练的法则指

“你如何才能避免第一个犯错误呢？最容

何通过集中经营来开创公司未来？作为

导每一家公司在网络时代应用网络来建立

易的办法是要让你的市场营销计划符合市

市场营销大师的艾·里斯在公司管理上的

他们的品牌。“集中”经营的思想同样体

场营销法则。”在这本书中，你既可以在

独特见解，会使读过本书的公司高管拍案

现在该书的字里行间，充分反映了艾·里

剖析众多美国公司的错误中穿上你的防弹

叫绝。

斯所提倡的适应环境变化的灵活性，而且

衣，同时，也可以从成功的经验中找到适

《品牌22律》是艾·里斯和他的女

也印证了理论是随着时间和环境的改变而

合自己的风向标。22条易于领悟和掌握的

儿劳拉·里斯合作的成果。该书延伸了

不断发展变化的。当你的公司面临这样的

市场营销原则贯穿了艾·里斯和杰克·特

《聚焦》一书的思想，探讨怎样把一种产

变化时，如何在网络上打造具有竞争力的

劳特的“简单”思想。两位大师联袂合著

品和服务打造成一个世界级品牌。此书甫

品牌？这是一本不可不看的新网络时代公

的《22条商规》本身就深刻地体现了市场

一出版即成为品牌圣经。作为权威的品牌

司品牌建设的权威书籍。

营销的法则。

专业教材，《品牌22律》一反传统教材篇

艾·里斯和杰克·特劳特等作者的这

艾·里斯在《聚焦》中再次强调了

幅冗长的弊病，沿用《22条商规》的简约

套系列读物给人们带来了观念上的冲击、

“聚焦”经营的理念。这本书致力于确立

风格，浓缩复杂的理论和原理，用22条

行为上的借鉴，我们真诚希望这套系列读

市场营销过程的真正目标，即市场营销不

适合快速阅读的小标题予以支持，以美国

物的出版能引起我国企业界和学术界的反

仅提供产品和服务，而且是在开创未来；

大公司品牌战略案例予以佐证，让读者在

思，以全新的视角思考中国企业的未来发

不仅开创公司的总体未来，而且开创公司

繁忙工作之余轻松阅读。该书进一步提出

展战略和市场定位，结合中国国情，创造

业务的具体前景。而聚焦经营恰恰能预见

市场营销过程本身也应集中化的观念，帮

性地吸引和运用艾·里斯、杰克·特劳特

公司的愿景，并通过具体的步骤实现企业

助企业在今天狂躁而拥挤的市场中找到穿

等的商业智慧和营销思想。事实上，尽管

的愿景。企业通过让自身更加集中化的种

越混乱的捷径，这就是走一条打造品牌的

这套系列读物的案例主要来自美国公司，

种方法，可以变得更加强大。作为里斯商

路。什么是打造品牌的有效法则？让我们

但其中的很多见解，无疑是值得我们借鉴

业智慧再添美妙一笔的该书，观点新鲜有

到《品牌22律》一书中去发掘。

的。

趣又发人深省。书中引用中国的谚语“脚

《互联网商规11条》是艾·里斯和

踩两只船注定是要落空的”，形象地反映

女儿劳拉·里斯再度联袂的佳作。互联网

了艾·里斯一向提倡的：要成功就必须集

是十年难得一遇的革命性奇迹，较之50年

中经营，必须将精力放在最有可能成功的

来个人电脑、电子芯片、大型计算机和电

“运用之妙，存乎一心。”愿大家都成功。（本文系作者为《22条商规》中文版所作的推荐序）

October 2013

COLUMN

Learning the China waltz The opportunities and challenges facing multinational corporations in China

he changing nature of China’s economic development provides d both opportunities and b cchallenges for multinattional industrial companies. Where they once n Michel Brekelmans sserved the traditional domestic manufacturing d machine, they now must m meet the needs of a more m ssophisticated market. China is on course to become the world’s largb eest market for a variety of products and servico es. This demand has Eric Yan e eencouraged local players to up their game to a stage where they offer serious competition to global leaders. Domestic manufacturers, long adept at localizing foreign products for the Chinese market, are continually improving the quality of their products. The battle is taking place in an environment where it is also often difficult to protect intellectual property. To succeed in this new world, global companies must show agility and creativity in developing successful business strategies suited for China.

Quality as well as price The Chinese industrials market can typically be characterized by two generic segments; a quality segment with

October 2013

higher priced products which historically has been populated by multinationals and a value segment, which supplies cheaper products, usually made by domestic companies. While historically there may have been clear distinctions across these customer segments, in China’s dynamic environment of evolving customer needs and intense competition, value and quality are converging in many industrial sectors. International executives recognize that domestic manufacturers’ quality is continuing to improve at a rapid pace. Although many perceive domestic players’ current quality to be only half of that of global manufacturers, they see this as changing rapidly in the next five years. Furthermore, domesticfirms are likely to maintain their substantial price competitiveness against multinationals. Strategic responses to this situation are varied. Many multinationals do not yet view the domestic players to be a major threat in the premium segment that they compete in. For instance, a large global paint and coating manufacturer recognized that in the “middle and low end market, the tech gap is closing,” but stressed that the multinationals and their domestic competitors were targeting distinct customer segments. A medical devices manufacturer stated that “multinationals and domestics are competing for different groups of customers.” However, as domestic companies’

quality continues to improve, it is essential for global players to be well prepared and have the right strategies in place to effectively compete.

Manufacturers’ responses Despite rising competition from local manufacturers, foreign companies are not currently considering leaving the market. This suggests that management teams believe that with the right strategies, China still offers attractive opportunities. Executives also appear to believe that continuing innovation to keep their companies’ products premium is the key to success here. Their responses to the present situation can be aggregated into three high level strategies: Focusing on innovation, finding new markets to serve and competing directly with local firms. A frequently employed strategy is to continue with vigorous innovation in an effort to retain control over the high-end segment. A large European based engineering and electronicscompany noted that “domestic players do not innovate now; they just imitate global products, so multinationals need to maintain their R&D (research and development) capabilities to build competitive advantage.” As many multinationals in China rely on continuing innovation to stay ahead of the competition, deciding on how to foster innovation is likely to be one of their most important strate-

gic decisions. This can include setting up or moving R&D centres to China, bringing more innovative products to the local market and integrating Chinese engineers into global R&D. Finding new markets to serve is also a commonly cited strategy by executives. A US laminate manufacturer stated that “we are currently trying to expand our product range to also serve the flooring and roofing markets.” Expanding the potential customer base is often a key strategic initiative for multinationals to compete effectively in China. Companies have adopted various approaches to this. Typically, they will take existing products and services and target new industries, new geographic markets within China or approach new customers or segments. There is also the option to produce new products to serve adjacent markets based on existing similar products, technology and facilities.

Going head on Another way to compete is to go headto-head directly with local players,

which typically involves expanding the multinational’s presence beyond the high-end premium market. Strategies can involve making simpler (and cheaper) products, renewing a focus on cost, or acquiring or launching a budget brand into the market. Multinationals have discovered that many of their original products are over-specified for many applications within China, and so have successfully increased sales by addressing the demands of the local market and simplifying their products. Options for doing so include redesigning the appearance and replacing non-core materials without changing the core function. Removing additional features or functions of the product is also a popular choice, as it changing the volume or size of a product to make it more suitable for users with minimal demand. Controlling costs is critical to staying competitive but a need to provide low cost productsrisks putting too much attention on reducing production costs. A low cost product strategy mustbe implemented cautiously to avoid erosion of valuable brand image

Strategies implemented by multinationals to overcome challenges from domestic companies

associated with high quality. Some global enterprises are making adjustments with their feet, shifting manufacturing to places with lower labor costs. This can involve internal relocation from China’s coastal regions to its hinterland or going overseas to countries such as Vietnam, depending on the type of industry. Directly targeting the value segment, as opposed to focusing only on premium lines, offers multinationals the opportunity to expand their customer base. This can be achieved through the acquisition of a local player or by launching new low-cost brands. Such a strategy is intended to allow multinational manufacturers to enter middle-to-low end market segments without tarnishing their original brand’s image. Acquiring local players also allows the possibility to leverage domestic brands’ position and often low cost infrastructure. The China market is entering a new era, of that there is no doubt. It does, however, still offer plentiful opportunities for global companies. By addressing some of the changes underway in the market, global players can position themselves better to reap the rewards and reduce the risks.

Continue innovation to stay premium Find new markets to serve

Michel Brekelmans is a partner and co-head of at L.E.K. Consulting’s China practice based in Shanghai. Eric Yan is a manager at the firm.

Acquire a local player to compete in the value segments Cut costs to close the price gap Simplify products to make them cheaper Launch a secondary brand to compete in the value segment Exit the market 0

40 60

80 100

Percentage of respondents

This article is based on a survey of multinational business executives, including several from large industrial project supply companies.

October 2013

封面故事

电商大时代策划 | Philip Liu

P25 大趋势 P32 掘金大市场 P40 网络营销蝉蜕龙变

October 2013

大趋势飞速发展的电子商务市场出现了一些新特征文 | 海风

电

子商务在中国获得了飞速发展，形

从去年第四季度到今年第一季度，连

成了新的经济体。正如阿里巴巴的

续两个季度通过雅虎（雅虎作为阿里巴巴

马云所说，阿里巴巴在中国创造的是电商

的股东披露）看到阿里巴巴集团的盈利超

经济体，不是简单的电商业务，因为阿里

过了腾讯，但超过的并不多。

巴巴本身并不做电商，而是给电商搭建大的平台。

2000年开始，很多人把中国互联网人口等同于80后，卫哲认为这个定义是

官方数据显示，中国电子商务交易

不对的，很多80后是离开校门后才接触

额去年已达到8.1万亿元，增速相当于当

到互联网。“我们把80后叫做‘工作在

年GDP增速的4.1倍；网络零售交易规模

互联网’的一代人。中国互联网的核心主

达到1.3万亿元，增速相当于同期社会消

流人群是85后，即1985年和1985年后出

费品零售总额的4.7倍。“经过近10年的

生的人群。”卫哲表示，电子商务的真正

发展，电子商务已经成为重要的社会经济

变化，就是85后到了30而立的时候，前

形式和现代流通方式。”上海市商务委员

面的量变开始进入质变，也就是到2015

会副主任顾嘉禾说道。他表示，电子商务

年。2015年以后，还会有什么与现在不

已经成为上海经济发展的新增长点和新动

一样的变化？他认为不一定完全取决于技

力，最近上海又被列入跨境电子商务试点

术，实际上技术是否进步不重要，重要的

区，这对于电子商务的发展将产生积极的

是85后进入了，成为了社会消费的主力。

影响。

他分析了85后电子商务消费的主要特

在“看得见的手”之外，市场的推动

点：衣食住行，大部分就是衣服、3C类产

力更为持久和深远。艾瑞咨询数据显示，

品，电子商务B2C的半壁江山是靠服装和

今年第二季度中国网络购物市场中B2C

3C类产品，这是85后的消费主打。85后

（含C2C推出的B2C商城）交易规模为

还给电子商务贴上了一张错误的标签：电

1576亿元，在整体网络购物市场交易规模

子商务只能卖便宜货。

中的比重达到36%。艾瑞咨询分析师张晶

卫哲认为，电子商务不一定要卖便宜

认为，今年第二季度电商“价格战”主要

货，但85后只想买便宜货，他们刚踏上工

在B2C平台企业间展开，将网购消费者的

作岗位，口袋里没有多少钱，在没有电子

注意力及购买力都集中在B2C上；网购用

商务的时代他们买什么东西？也都是捡便

户的网购行为趋于理性，对网购商品的质

宜货。

量有更高要求，传统C2C平台低价特性的吸引力逐步下降。

但当85后逐渐成为消费主力，85年出生的人现在开始进入结婚高峰，在卫哲投资的中国婚纱摄影网上，发现他们在网

网购人群巨变

上挑的结婚摄影套餐甚至比普通渠道还要

2015是什么年？好象任何一部科幻

高出1000元。他认为，并不是电子商务、

小说都没说到那一年会发生什么事。嘉御

互联网上永远卖便宜货，而要看捕获的人

基金董事长卫哲却要探讨“2015年前后的

群有没有真正上网；传统产品和零售服务

电子商务”。大约在2008年他就反复提

的对象有没有上网。

到，2015年将是中国电子商务从量变到质变的最关键一年。

卫哲预测2015年后电子商务将出现垂直化和纵形化，并看好三大行业：住

October 2013

封面故事

房、装修、汽车会更多地实现电子商务化。

龄结构与中国不一样。什么时候会迎来

坐飞机出发，美国没有一家电商公司可以

B2B爆发性的春天？他认为，要看85后

在3天内把潜水镜送到，只有在中国可以送

互联网的三座大山BAT（百度、阿

什么时候在公司掌权，他们在公司掌权

到。因为中国电商激烈竞争，消费者体验

里巴巴、腾讯）在这三个行业反而不容易

了，B2B的春天就到了。中国B2B的大发

非常好，很多电商公司在一定地区之内，

进入。因为这三个行业的单笔消费额非常

展还要等7、8年时间，但如果创业企业现

保证24小时内送货。

大，不敢完全在网上完成交易过程，必须

在起步，时间刚好。

要有一定的线下服务。一定的线下服务就意味着BAT是不愿意碰的，这样机会就

“这在美国是不可想象的，在很多其他国家根本就谈不到。中国的电商物流

物流服务领先

远远走在全世界任何国家前面。”吴炯表

来了。这是卫哲对于未来纵形化电商的判

今年8月初，风和投资管理董事长吴

示，“4年前中国电子商务在中国互联网产

断。他在两年前就意识到，BAT在轻电商

炯全家要去美国休假，当时是通过互联网

业里和美国相比是最滞后的子领域。但是

方面也有漏网之鱼。今年他投资了两家企

报名到加勒比海潜水。因为他女儿年纪刚

今天已经完成颠倒过来，中国的电子商务

业：PPS和91无线，分别被百度收购，

好，可以把潜水证考出来。在网上报了

产业，通过这几年发展，不但赶上了美国

百度今年在这两家企业上花了22.7亿美

名，准备过3、4天就坐飞机出发。临出

的电子商务，而且超过了美国电子商务发

元。BAT也有看走眼的时候，如果意识

发前，突然发现一个问题，因为女儿近

展的水平。”

到在战略布局上BAT都忽略了，就会有

视，需要配一副带近视镜片的潜水眼镜。

1号店董事长于刚当过商学院教授，

机会。

于是，赶紧开车去迪卡侬买，结果没有买

在供应链管理方面有很高的造诣，而1号店的物流也做得非常好，个中奥秘何在？

他认为互联网创业企业不一定走上

到，当时店员说了一句话：“你应该上淘

市道路。美国更多的优秀创业企业没有上

宝看看。”于是回家上天猫，就一个搜

于刚表示主要有三点。第一是供应链

市，而成为了Google、苹果、英特尔、

索，有二三十家公司提供这样的潜水眼

管理系统，因为电子商务规模越大就越要

思科收购兼并的对象。“我当过上市公司

镜，而且可以配专门的度数。当天晚上下

靠系统，而系统一定是集中化、实时、柔

CEO，除了敲钟那一刻比较好玩一点，敲

单，第二天晚上，24小时不到，潜水眼镜

性并且是可控的。开始所有的系统—供

钟前不好玩，敲钟后也不好玩，所以创业

就送上门来，刚好赶在出发前。

应商管理系统、库存管理系统、仓库管理

吴炯认为，在没有电子商务以前，这

系统、配送管理系统、价格管理系统、营

卫哲非常看好B2B，但需要等比B2C

样的问题是没有办法解决的。因为这是长

销管理全都是自己开发的，这让企业有了

更长的时间。因为核心用户的互联网知识

尾需求，如果没有电子商务，任何一家店

核心竞争力。第二要做好成本管理，精细

和背景还不足以支持这项服务。美国B2B

都没有办法满足消费者的这种需求。如果

化经营成本控制非常重要，要有大量的优

比中国发展快，因为美国互联网人口的年

在美国有这样的需求，而且3天以后就要

化和自动化。仓库管理也有很多创新，如

之后不一定要上市。”他说道。

具备声控拣货和分拣的功能。第三是做整体物流。物流直接关系到顾客体验，于刚在3年前发现，60%的顾客投诉都与物流相关，如配送不及时，配送过程中损坏等。因此就自建物流，成立了配送团队，现在已经覆盖了40多个城市，在上海就有70多个站点，将长三角都覆盖了。并且要求配送员的服务要超出顾客的期望值。软银中国投资总监潘政荣表示：“做物流真不容易，一个是速度快，第二是端对端的服务要标准。过去几年，包括京东都有自建物流，易迅的自建物流则追求一个快。”快虽然很重要，但有时候并不是最主要的。于刚认为：“准比快更重要。最早他们追求快，最近我们追求准，我们推出一日四送、一日六送，在上海、广中国电商物流走在了全世界的前列

October 2013

州、北京一日六送，顾客选择两个小时的

时间段送出，这样顾客的感受更好。” 马云提出要发展社会化物流。电商企业是充分利用第三方物流来做事情，还是发挥自建物流的作用？于刚表示，选择自建物流是迫不得已，但通过自建物流可以达到更好的服务标准，然后以这个服务标准来带动其他的物流服务商。

移动电商布局艾瑞咨询数据显示，今年第二季度中国移动互联网市场规模约242亿元，同比增速超过71%。艾瑞咨询分析师王影表示：“移动互联网经过两年的沉淀和积累，市场正朝向理性健康的方向发展，移动互联网商业化价值逐渐凸显。” 于刚认为，将来电子商务无处不在，移动物联网络市场发展趋于明朗化

不管是传统还是现代商家，都会通过各种各样的形式去做电子商务，这种趋势不可避免，每个人都得接受这一现实。而移动

移动互联网市场发展开始明朗化，对

易迅CMO顾思斌指出，首先要找准

电商是新业态，可以开创新机会。汤澜表

商业模式的探索有望在今年得以突破。王

自己的定位和特色，识别自己的价值，用

示，从携程订酒店，刚开始移动互联网手

影认为主要原因在于，“传统互联网公司

自己的规则和自己的内涵来参与市场。其

机客户端只占5%的比例，还要定一个指

投资并购不断，延续PC优势的同时不断补

次要顺势而为，看到移动电商就要起来，

标，若干年后达到25%就好，但指标定的

齐自身短板，移动战略布局基本完成；传

赶紧要参与其中，而不是旁观。这么多的

太低，因为现在已超过30%，所以移动电

统行业企业认可移动互联网商业价值，积

平台在开放，这么多的组件可以调用，此

商是很好的发展方向。

极投身参与，推动市场向前发展。”

时就应该拥抱大平台，顺势而为，而不是试图去阻挡。创业者怎样才能在电商领域取得成

2012Q1-2013Q2 中国网络购物市场交易规模

功？吴炯给出了三条建议：第一是必须要 6000

33.1%

0.2% 10.2%

16.7%

6.1%

5.8% 55.8%

64.7%

57.7%

-17.1% 17.1%

24.2%

36.6% 36 6%

45 3% 45.3% 4371 3 4371.3

81 7% 81.7% 4249 3 4249.3

4000

运营、数据挖掘，从成本和客户行为去做分析，通过精细运营，提升竞争有效性，获取更高利润。第三是在一些垂直行业里

3520.8 3009.2

有独特的内容、独特的产品。第二是精细

另辟蹊径。他举了一个例子。药品电商普

3193.4

及程度非常低，中国每年卖出1万亿药品，

2578.4

但只有1%约100亿是通过互联网卖出的。因为很多药品需要医生处方，没有处方不

2000

能在网上买药；虽然有很多药品不需要处方，但很多买药的人还是要比买其他普通商品谨慎很多。因此药品电商行业会有更

0 2012Q1

2012Q2

网络购物交易规模（亿元）

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1e 2013Q1

同比增长率（%）

来源：根据企业公开财报、行业访谈及艾瑞统计预测模型估算，仅供参考。

2013Q2e 2013Q2

环比增长率（%） iResearch

*注：网络购物市场交易规模是以实物产品销售为主营业务的平台电商与自主销售式电商GMV之和，包括实际成交的实物和虚拟产品GMV、营业税（或增值税）及未支付和退货等未成交订单GMV。

多的机会。 “不管怎么说，每个人首先都是消费者，我们遇到到了这个时代，应该好好去享受电商带给我们的便捷和美好生活。” 吴炯说道。

October 2013

COVER STORY

Transaction accepted UnionPay is just waking up to the massive potential of Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s e-payment bonanza

October 2013

etween April and June, a horde of non-financial firms channeled US$196 billion (RMB1.2 trillion) via online transactions, up 10% on the first three months of the year, according to Beijing-based consultancy iResearch. China’s central bank grants UnionPay, a state-backed bank card monopoly, the right to take a cut of many of these transactions. Until now, however, many of the digital transactions are still processed under the company’s nose as if it had been sleeping. Now the firm has woken up and will try to bring every last yuan that’s processed by a third party into its clutches, charging up to 0.55% on each transaction. But UnionPay will face resistance from market leader Alibaba Group, and its online payment company Alipay.com, which built China’s digital payment industry from scratch.

It’s big This year, the country will become the world’s most valuable market for online shopping, overtaking the US, according to consultancy Bain & Company. In 2015, Chinese are projected to spend about US$540 billion online. The majority of these transactions are paid for over internet. Taobao and Tmall, both online shopping platforms owned by Alibaba, account for the biggest share of China’s online retail space. Alipay, the biggest third-party payment processor in the country, funnels the majority of these payments through banks and between buyers and sellers. It accounted for more than 60% of third-party payments in 2012. On a single day last November, it processed US$1.3 billion. The figures weren’t always so high.

Alibaba built its payment-processing empire out of a financial system mired in paperwork and snail-like responses from banks. At the time, financial institutions sneered at online spending.

Rude awakening In 2004, when the platform went live on the mainland, debit cards were rare, credit cards unheard of for most customers and digital payments largely non-existent. When the foundations of the market were being laid, Alibaba even asked UnionPay to help connect customers with banks only to be denied because the state firm saw little value in the industry, a recent report from Caixin pointed out. Alibaba was instrumental in developing the service, according to Boaz Rottenberg, managing director at Maverick China, a consulting firm that focuses on e-commerce and thirdparty payment. Alipay was the first online payment platform to support an escrow function for Chinese wary of paying for goods online. The company also developed multiple options for topping up payment accounts outside of banks, such as at post offices or when buying phone cards. Since then, companies have swarmed into the market. In May 2011, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) issued nearly 200 third-party payment licenses, finally bestowing official recognition on payments facilitated by non-financial firms. More than 250 firms are now registered with the central bank although the vast majority of the licenses are for physical prepaid cards. Barely a handful of the registered firms constitute any real share of

October 2013

COVER STORY

the payments transferred between banks and customers. Alipay and Tenpay, owned by Chinese internet operator Tencent, made up 70% of the market alone last year. Other firms such as 99Bill and ePay have far smaller slice. The latecomer to the market was the state and its banks. “For years the banks were doing basically nothing. They were working on very out-dated paper-based systems. Only in recent years have they been pushing bank cards, let alone credit cards,” Rottenberg told China Economic Review. “They woke up a little late, and they realized that the future is in e-commerce. And it’s not necessarily theirs.”

UnionWho? The powers vested with UnionPay have made it a reluctant loser. The company was founded in 2002 by a consortium of China’s biggest state banks. Its logo is stamped on all Chinese bank cards and the company has grown into one of the most recognized payment processors in the world. On the mainland, it rules the bank card universe. The central bank says that all card-issuing institutions in the country must process transactions through UnionPay. Its monopoly over card transactions has been a point of contention between China and the WTO. When the country joined the organization in 2001, it promised to open its banking market to international financial institutions. Yet today companies such as MasterCard and Visa are still forced to route mainland payments through UnionPay – a requirement that many say violates WTO commitments. Forget about any near-term liber-

October 2013

alization. In May, PBoC stopped an independent Chinese payment processor from working with MasterCard, demonstrating UnionPay’s still-tight grip on the market. Digital transactions processed by non-financial institutions are on the fringes of UnionPay’s monopoly. Many banks have opted to insert UnionPay into online transactions routed between banks, Alipay and customers. Others partner directly with Alipay, dodging UnionPay charges. The dual system went unquestioned until the value of third-party transactions skyrocketed over the past three years. Now that UnionPay has caught a whiff of the value of the industry, it’s looking to channel everything through its clearinghouse. In early August, the company said all offline payments must be incorporated by year-end. All online transactions must be cleared by UnionPay by June 1, 2014.

Waiting for a signal The crackdown on the market has raised questions on the future of thirdparty transactions in China as well as the nature of UnionPay itself. At the end August, Alipay shutdown its point-of-sales payment processor, an offline service, for “obvious reasons,” the company said. While it said it would eventually resume the service, the move has been interpreted as resistance against UnionPay’s encroachment on the market. It’s yet to be seen how Alibaba will react to the deadline for incorporating online payments, a much larger segment of the market, into UnionPay. Landing UnionPay in the center of the market has big implications for payment processing in China. If it suc-

ceeds in bring all third-party processors under its wing, prices for end-customers will climb. For companies such as Alibaba and Tencent, this will come amid other rising costs. Rottenberg at Maverick China noted that individual banks are also looking to increase the profits earned off the top of the burgeoning e-commerce market, squeezing the already small margins at the third-party processors. Officials at UnionPay are likely watching the regulatory environment develop just as closely as Alibaba. UnionPay operates similar to a private company and isn’t vested with policywriting power. However, its attempt to close in on the market would give the company the appearance of a policymaker as well as a monopoly. PBoC will have the final word – hopefully sooner rather than later. The chances of the central bank standing up for third-party processors would be an acknowledgment of the market-making value of companies such as Alibaba. Given the clampdown on MasterCard a few months ago, however, this seems unlikely. Condoning UnionPay’s August ultimatum meanwhile would show what most industry watchers expect: That the state is determined to enrich itself on the backs of entrepreneurs no matter what the cost to the private sector. Perhaps the most dangerous signal from the central bank is none at all, deferring de facto decision-making authority on UnionPay. If the state-run firm can stay alert, that would translate into room to swallow up other emerging segments of the financial market the moment they prove profitable.

கܷ‫ڜ‬ඵᝇፌॅࡔाূබ ዐ႐‫ٷ‬ঃ

Michael Charlton (麦克•查尔顿) 马恩岛政府经济发展部国际业务主任

Michael是一位独立顾问，目前的职

担任 Think London的首席执行

位是马恩岛政府国际事务主任。主要

官。Think London是一家多次获奖的

工作地是在伦敦，他为马恩岛政府在

针对促进对伦敦直接海外投资的机

经济发展战略、国家计划发展以及提

构。在Michael的领导下Think London

升国家形象以吸引更多来自英国、中

为伦敦确保了其在欧洲吸引海外直接

国、印度、俄罗斯、中东地区的投资

投资领域的领先地位。该机构协助了

提供建议和咨询。

来自超过40个国家近2,000家海外企业

Michael同时也是巴西Rio Nego-

在伦敦设立或拓展，总计产生了超过

cio的国际事务主任，Rio Negocio是

40,000个工作岗位，为伦敦经济总量

负责为里约热内卢吸引海外投资的机

增加了46亿英镑。

构。Michael的职责包括发展和执行针

Michael是一位 ACA成员。他在

对2014年巴西世界杯以及2016里约热

KPMG工作了超过10年，负责管理审计

内卢奥运会的战略，更好地提升城市

和企业金融部分。他在拉夫堡科技大

的形象，孕育更多的商业机会。

学获得了管理及商业金融学科的荣誉

直至 2011年， Michael一直

学士学位。

日前，马恩岛在2013年《专业顾问》

取得的坚实成果、我们与本地金融服

“借此机会，我希望对所有马恩

国际基金与产品大奖(Professional Ad-

务业之间紧密高效的合作关系及岛上

岛的获奖公司表示祝贺，并感谢每一

visor International Fund and Prod-

经济的平衡发展。”

个为奖项申请付出努力的同仁。”

uct Awards 2013)中击败去年获奖的英

“马恩岛在推动国际税收及透

属泽西岛，荣获最佳国际金融中心大

明度方面实施了最佳实践，并建立了

举办14届，旨在嘉奖在金融服务行业

奖。今年，以马恩岛为基地的公司获

一个健全的金融制度和消费者保障

提供跨国产品和服务的公司。 2013

得了过半数的奖项。《专业顾问》是

平台。”

年，共有70多家提供离岸业务服务的

一本知名英国投资顾问杂志。

马恩岛经济发展部部长约翰• 施

马恩岛首席部长 Allan Bell表

明（John Shimmin）表示：“最佳国

示：“全球金融服务格局正处于变动

际金融中心大奖是团队合作的成果。

之中，在这个时刻获此奖项，对马恩

这个奖项凝聚了我们各个部门员工的

岛是意义重大的。如果政府和私营企

努力。”

业能继续秉承创新精神，保持紧密合

“这个奖项也是对马恩岛金融

作，提供卓越的服务，马恩岛便能在

服务业的肯定。他们所提供的产品和

不断变化的环境中取得长足发展。”

客户服务促进了本岛多样化经济发

马恩岛财政部部长Eddie Teare 补

展。我很高兴看到这么多以马恩岛为

充说道：“我们提交申请时重点强调

基地的公司在他们各自的类别中获得

马恩岛在相关国际标准与合作方面已

奖项。”

国际基金与产品大奖评选已成功

公司角逐这些奖项。

Department of Economic Development, St George’s Court, Upper Church Street, Douglas, ISLE OF MAN, IM1 1EX October 2013

封面故事

掘金大市场电商企业构建开放平台以提升盈利能力文 | 晗剑

电商正坚定地走上开放平台之路

根

创新：成功要素之一

据，今年第二季度中国网络购物市

“电子商务不是简单地把线下业务、

场交易规模为4371亿元，较去年同期增长

服务、商品搬到线上，如果只是这样，

45%。艾瑞咨询分析师张晶认为，今年第

我们就失败了。”1号店董事长于刚表

于刚预测，下一个热点是移动商务，

二季度中国网络购物市场经历一场集体价

示，电子商务的特征是不受时间、空间、

不是简单地把电子商务从电脑搬到手机

格战，主流电商平台企业先后公开宣战，

货架的限制，这就产生了一个新业态和很

上，而是又成了一种新业态，又有很多新

从而推高网购市场交易规模，实现网购市

多新模式。在线下很难想象还有B2B、

特征。比如，可以随时随地使用和扫描，

场近50%的同比增速；此外，对于电商价

B2C、C2B、O2O这么多不同模式。

手机之间可以互动和物联，这些新特征又

据艾瑞咨询中国网络购物市场数

格战，商务部已明确表态“不干预”，政策利好无疑会推进电商行业的发展。

两年前，他在戛纳的营销广告节上看到一个获金奖的创意，就是在地铁站设立

个地方去，你可以虚拟地看到立体三维的商场，看到虚拟货架，可以立即购买。” 于刚表示。

让它形成了很多新的不同的商务模式和运营模式。

电商正坚定地走上开放平台之路，用

一个虚拟货架，用手机扫描一下马上就可

他认为，创新不是可有可无的事情，

自营体系建立口碑，带来流量；同时用开

以购买。“我们把这个创新又拓展一步，

而是企业的生命线，尤其在互联网、高科

放平台丰富产品提升盈利能力；在这样的

让它不依赖于具体的广告。我们利用了手

技时代。技术更新如此之快，如果不创

大趋势下，如何健康长久发展下去？又如

机的GPS功能，可以随时随地建一个虚拟

新，不敢去革自己的命，一定会被淘汰

何避免重走百货行业的老路？

商场，可以用手机给你导航，让你走到那

在“沙滩”上。

October 2013

“创新不是一句口号，一定要有创新的基因和氛围，同时也要有创新的机制和平台。”他表示。在创办企业之前，于刚和搭档已经在探索企业文化了。当时列出了四个关键词，后来排了序，就是“诚信、顾客、执行、创新”，创新是企业的四大基石之一。但仅有文化还不够，还要有机制和氛围。于是设立了创新中心，组建了两个团队，一是专家团队，一个是决策团队，同时搭建了创新平台，请员工、顾客、合作伙伴给出创新的点子，由专家团队研究后提交给决策团队，决定哪些项目需要孵化、实现、投资。这样每年需要孵化约30个项目。 “我们的概念就是创新不要怕犯错误，先简单地做起来，再一步一步地去改进。不要去追求原始创新，因为原始创新太花时间和精力，而且很多时候，时机就错过了。可以把好的想法、思路，从不同行业、领域借鉴过来。在这个过程中，如果发现了更好的方法和点子，再去做原始创新。还有就是做前台的营销式创新，比较容易复制。”他说道。

创新不是可有可无的事情

于刚认为，“第一公里”与“最后一公里”同样重要。供应商给电商送货，希

了APP与安卓市场的开放政策，又进一步

管家，这些后台都用携程的酒店资源。携

望是大量、少频次，这样可以降低物流成

拓宽了开放平台。携程垂直的旅行领域更

程也接入合作方的资源。携程作为一站式

本。而电商希望少量、大频次、大批次，

需要开放，因此还在不断尝试、挖掘开放

服务的平台，可以把好的产品接入到平台

这样可以减少库存成本。1号店采取了“第

平台的功能和特性。

中。旅游产品单靠一家去做一站式的服务

一公里”：上门从供应商那儿取货，按照

首先是对内开放。主要有两个方面：

是比较困难的，所以也做了旅行的开放平

需求、频次、物流的日程表去供应商那里

第一会把库存，如酒店、机票、度假产品

台，旅行社和旅行电商如果有好的产品也

取货，同时把供应商的物流成本结算在取

开放给所有的渠道。第二种开放是作为一

可以接入。一些当地有特色的资源，也可

货过程中。从而降低了自己和供应商的物

站式服务供应商，把好的新的产品与服务

以接入携程当地的营销体系。

流成本，同时也让库存更健康。

嫁接到这个平台上。

携程海外酒店在两年前大概还只有2

于刚表示，创新是企业的生命线，

怎样把产品开放给其他的供应商？

万到3万多家，但是接入了很多平台以后，

也是电子商务的成功要素之一，或者是将

一是分销联盟，大概已经有超过几万家的

海外酒店一下达到20多万家。“通过这

来的生存要素。另外，还需要有创新的文

分销商和注册网站，携程所有的资源都能

样的合作，无论是把库存开放给其他的合

化、机制、氛围和平台，企业要舍得在创

够提供给其他平台，包括移动和线上。最

作方，还是把合作方的库存接入到我们这

新上进行投资，不要太注重眼前的得失，

近做了很多尝试，开放平台也做了很多改

里，通过这样一个开放和融汇的过程，我

而要看将来的3年、5年甚至10年。

进。不仅从广告获取、订单跟踪、包括业

想在今年或者在将来几年应该还会有更大

绩查询方面，对产品的纬度也进行了很好

的发展。”汤澜说道。

开放：促进融合发展互联网时代，如果企业不开放，即使

的细分，包括对酒店进行不同的分类，让接入方可以各取所需。

多元：改善用户体验

还能存活，也不会活得很好。携程网高级

携程现在与所有大的合作方都有平

易迅网成立于2006年，依托于自有

副总裁汤澜表示，携程在开放平台方面，

台合作。移动互联网更加是双向合作。也

资金滚动，也就是在没有融资的情况下发

已经做了很多事情。尤其在移动领域，除

把资源给合作方，比如航班管家、快捷

展得非常快。现任易迅网CMO顾思斌

October 2013

封面故事

在2010年时作为腾讯电商平台部负责

线以后的预热，用户的试用，以及到了生

用户、营销组件、物流的模块，甚至更多

人拜访了易迅，非常巧合，腾讯很快就投

命周期高峰期的抢购等。除此之外，就是

元的内容都开放给整个电商体系，让所有

资了易迅，并进行了控股。从2010年获投

怎样把一些留在平台上或者曾经采购过的

人都可以用我们的平台来做生意。”

资以来，在2到3年时间里业绩增长了十几

用户服务好。可以精确定位不同群体的用

倍，去年业绩增长了200%。

户属性、喜好行为，如喜欢什么样的新闻

顾思斌说道：“我们有一些思考：未来的易迅网应该做什么平台？要做一些什

频道，喜欢看什么样的微博内容，在关联

转型：实体百货上线 “2015年一定是传统企业转型提升、触网上线的时刻。”这是徐家汇商城

社交上的一些需求等。

么事情？垂直电商平台已经非常多了，易

还有就是想打造一些在后台扮演推

集团电商公司董事长郭志鹏的判断。传统

迅存在的价值究竟是什么？”他归纳了几

动力的平台体系。比如，商家让用户注册

实体百货的经理人为何会这样说？传统实

个差异点。

账号，可以把QQ的公共账号体系提供出

体百货应该怎样嵌入电商基因、融入电商

易迅背靠腾讯大集团背景，有一些立

来。易迅还有专门面向所有第三方物流公

行业？

体性资源。在基于腾讯的多元背景下，比

司的对接平台，可以把物流查询体系开放

互联网对传统百货冲击非常大，但是

如微信、微博、新闻评测的网站、社区、

出来，也就是可以藏在商家平台的后面，

郭志鹏掌握的数据显示，今年上半年，上

音乐等应用服务，可以提供全生命周期链

或者默默支撑这个体系的发展。顾思斌表

海市推出了近290万平方米的商业物业，

条的多元服务。

示，希望商家与用户之间可以相互体会，

也就是说线下百货的竞争可能比互联网的

并且可以更近距离地去提供服务。

压力还要大。现在上海市人均商业面积2平

“硬件其实是为内容服务的，最好的内容、最好的应用其实都在腾讯，我们在

易迅网的开放路径在步调上相对偏

方米，明年可能要达到人均4平方米。“什

面向互联网、面向内容上面，其实已经做

稳、偏慢。“我们希望这个平台存在的核

么概念？欧美的3倍，也就是说传统百货所

到50%以上份额。” 顾思斌说道。

心价值是提供最好的用户体验。节奏如果

赖以生存的频效和人效将受到巨大冲击。

多元平台可以提供更好地满足用户的

过快或者影响用户体验，我们会让它适当

当然电子商务在空中，对陆地还是有非常

内容和应用，也可以提供整个产品从发布

慢一些。”顾思斌表示，“但是从长期目

大的冲击。”他说道。

的初期、造势到后续的一些经营，比如上

标看，我们希望有一天可以把我们积累的

郭志鹏认为，实体零售的优势是通过重资产和时间来积累的，实体百货零售的

2013Q2中国B2C购物网站交易规模市场份额凡客 0.7% 1号店 1.4%

一些劣势可能会随着时间的延续而难以解决，而互联网具有一些先天优势：不受时

其他 11.6%

间、空间、地理的限制。 “常常讲到徐家汇吃喝玩乐，但我们力争要把上海的徐家汇构建成为中国的

当当 1.8%

国美电商 1.9% 唯品会 2.0% 亚马逊中国 2.2%

徐家汇，这是互联网带来的巨大魅力。当然网络零售的劣势也非常清楚，这也是传统企业在跟互联网企业交流的过程当中，我们一直在讲的：你的品质、诚信、体验

苏宁易购 5.0%

天猫 50.8%

腾讯 5.6%

在哪里？当然，我们坚信网络销售的劣势会随着时间的推移，逐步予以解决。”他说道。传统零售业区域性非常明显，离开了这个区域，百货的名字就不一定会被记

京东 17.1%

住。还有一个是价格与渠道的回归。1952 年，上海的六百就在上海开始建店。在这

*注：1. B2C市场拥有复合销售渠道的运营商规模仅统计其与网络相关的销售额； 2. B2C网站根据盈利模式不同划分为平台式B2C和自主式B2C；其中平台式B2C指天猫此类的以佣金服务为主要收入的网站；自主式B2C指京东商城此类的以商品的进销差价为主要收入的网站； 3. 苏宁易购包含旗下红孩子，腾讯B2C包含QQ网购及旗下易讯网，国美电商包含国美在线及库巴网。

来源：综合企业财报及专家访谈，根据艾瑞统计模型核算。

October 2013

iResearch

么长的发展过程中，可能一直在做一件事情，就是从生产商的仓库把箱子搬到百货的仓库，在这个过程中大量的代理商和一些中间环节，确实使价格虚高了很多，所以今天到上海买衣服确实太贵。这也是最

消费者的后喻时代将会到来

近几年互联网购物快速发展的一个原因。

谈它的创新，可能未来会有人讲你是传统

务、比售后、比体验。O2O模式看起来非

因此郭志鹏预见，消费者的“后喻时代”

的互联网企业。任何产业都有生命周期，

常简单，实际上要突破大量的环节。

将会到来，何谓后喻时代？过去认为卖的

必须正确面对。”

郭志鹏发现互联网一个有趣的现象，

人可能比买的人精，但相信未来3到5年，

网上徐家汇商城是怎么做的？为什

做一个商品的搜索可以出来12页的商品

买的人会比卖的人精，因为价格逐步透

么是目前全国唯一的全国资运作的网上商

目录信息，相信未来一定会有专门的通道

明，消费者可以通过相应的工具和渠道了

城？郭志鹏谈到了关键词“决心”，看起

解决细分产品的情况。积分平台是线下百

解到商品真实的价格和品质。

来很虚，实际上非常关键。他还特别提到

货很重要的利器，每家百货都有VIP客户

喜不喜欢一家店可以体验，大不了

了电商基因：闻道有先后、术业有专攻，

群，这是一直要做的，希望每家商场的消

不喜欢这家店，换另外一家店，用脚来投

尽管是从传统百货出来的，但由清一色的

费积分转成虚拟的货币在线上进行消费，

票。他认为，未来可能变成用手投票，在

80后、85后一线员工组成了主力团队，

这也是互联网经常提到的客户黏性。

互联网上用手指在屏幕前进行购物，当然

这一点非常关键。他认为，这也是很多传

传统百货上线要注意哪些问题？他认

还有用手机购物，用手投票将来一定是非

统企业最后把自己的电子商务平台简单做

为，互联网基因是平等、宽容、互动，传

常重要的渠道，移动互联网在互联网发展

成了企业推广网站，没有持续发展的原因

统企业上线更需要努力打破封闭的文化，

中的占比在快速成长。

之一。

说服这些传统企业上线，可能时间并不一定来得及，因为线下百货的发展还不足以

传统百货为什么要转型？郭志鹏表

而最大的特点是整合线下实体商圈强

示，有一个生命周期的概念，任何一个产

大的供应商和品牌资源，希望定位成一家

业都有生命周期。为什么要上线做网上徐

中高端的百货商城，坚持发布时尚新品，

郭志鹏希望，未来3到5年，传统百货

家汇商城？因为传统百货已经进入到非常

坚持线下百货和线上的同款同价。互联网

通过触网的过程会逐步觉悟。他希望能够

成熟的阶段，到了必须要改革和发展的阶

发展是以低价取胜，同款同价有没有人

给传统企业、电子商务新兵更多的机会和

段。当然，传统的生鲜超市和购物中心还

气？有没有流量？他认为，85后这一代人

空间，也希望能用传统商业企业的商业逻

在快速发展。他说道：“互联网今天还在

一定会有钱，一定会从单纯的比价到比服

辑为客户和消费者服务。

逼迫他们必须要面对互联网。

October 2013

REPORT

Eyeing the horizon Chinese smartphones have so far been very much stuck at the bottom end of the market overseas, but can Xiaomi rise above this by using its homegrown strategy abroad?

iaomi paraded its new international figurehead on stage at a press conference late in Beijing, signaling to the world that the company is preparing to go global. Hugo Barra, the former Google executive Xiaomi poached last month, is prized game in the Chinese technology realm – especially for a company entertaining the notion of putting its phones on the international market. At home, Xiaomi has worked wonders marketing its Mi 2S smartphone. Miraculously, it beat out Samsung’s Galaxy S4 as the most popular phone on the mainland in the first six months of 2013. Xiaomi seems to have come out of nowhere this year. It sold 7 million devices in the year through July, or more than it had in all of 2012. Those sales have catapulted the Beijing-based company into the limelight although it remains a minor player overall. Between April and June, it captured 2.5% of the overall market share for smartphones in China. Samsung had 18%. Sales at domestic companies such as ZTE, Huawei, Coolpad and even the little-know K-touch brand still overshadow the three-year-old firm. What Xiaomi has on those companies – and what led to its meteoric rise on the mainland – is an ace understanding of the forces at play, where mobile internet converges with hardware such as the Mi 2S. Lei Jun, the company’s founder

October 2013

and CEO, is a veteran of the internet industry. He has played not only to a burgeoning market for low-cost smartphones, but to a class of tens of millions of online gamers. While Lei is firmly in the headlines for now, with commentators excitedly throwing out comparisons with late Apple founder Steve Jobs, he’ll need more than his mainland strategy to sell overseas.

Viral infection In China, young internet users who didn’t know Xiaomi a year ago have likely heard of the brand now. One reason for that is because the company has sold a well-crafted smartphone for barely over the price that it cost to make, picking up buyers en masse outside of China’s biggest cities. More importantly, though, the company has developed a vast ecosys-

tem on which users play games, install applications and help sell the phones themselves. The heart of Xiaomi’s ecosystem is the MIUI interface, built using Google’s open-sourced Android operating system. Although the core of the interface’s code is Android, it looks and feels unique and has attracted a huge user base with the amount of Chineselanguage content that works well with the system. Even Chinese that don’t use Xiaomi phones often reportedly replace the Android interface that comes standard on many phones with MIUI simply for convenience. Independent data on user activity

doesn’t exist for the private company, but it claims that users have already made more than 1 billion downloads since its app store opened just over a year ago. This is where the ecosystem boosts device sales. Xiaomi pushes advertisements and promotions through its network of users. Word of phone sales that prompt users to share information with friends snowballs through the user base. The results have been viral. “Each user becomes a seed for viral promotion,” said Wang Jun, a device researcher at Beijing-based Analysys International. “For its marketing and promotion tactics, they are all like an internet company. This is completely different from a traditional cellphone maker.” The company also relies almost exclusively on China’s rapidly growing e-commerce sector as its channel for distributing the devices. These elements have allowed Xiaomi to market batches of up to 300,000 devices that reportedly sell out in under an hour. Late last year, it sold 50,000 phones in less than five minutes directly over the microblogging service SinaWeibo. Perhaps those kinds of sales stats convinced Barra to come on board. Regardless of the coaxing it took to bring him to Asia, hiring the star who oversaw the development of Android is a clear indication that Xiaomi is headed outward.

Different worlds Xiaomi may soon find that tactics deployed at home can’t guarantee success elsewhere – especially in markets where the company is virtually

unknown. “The biggest challenge of going abroad is still to get brand recognition,” said Sandy Shen, the regional director of research at technology consultancy Gartner. “I don’t think they’re going to deviate a lot from the current product positioning, which is valueand fashion-conscious. In the international market, there should be such a demand for the product.” Younger consumers looking for low prices and sleek design no doubt exist in markets throughout the West. The challenge lies in convincing them that Xiaomi is not just another Chinese brand flogging a cheap product. International headlines generated by the Barra buyout might well be effective. An even greater risk would be that Xiaomi bets on its homegame to work further afield. The factors that pushed the company to the forefront in the first half of the year were unique to the China market and can’t be leveraged with nearly as much success abroad. The company relied almost entirely on e-commerce to distribute phones and couldn’t have made such amazing selloffs without rapid growth in that market, said James Yan, a senior market analyst at IDC in Beijing. China’s e-commerce market grew at an annualized 71% between 2009 and 2012 while the US putted along with 12% growth a year, a study from Bain & Company showed last month. China’s online purchasing market is projected at about US$540 billion by 2015. Couple those figures with China’s smartphone market – the biggest in the world and expected to add some 300 million devices this year – and Xiaomi’s rocket-like sales start to add up.

October 2013

REPORT

“The market conditions, online consumer habits, and the entire internet industry and e-commerce came to bring about the company’s success,” said Wang at Analysys International. “In a different market, where all these conditions are different, it’s far from certain they’d have the same success.” Another foolish assumption would be that Xiaomi’s content could generate the same user base as it did in the mainland. It will need more than the games and app so adored by Chinese users to accumulate anything close to the loyalty it’s garnered in China. MIUI has performed beautifully on the mainland and is singled out by users for access to its rapidly developing app store. But the interface loses its charm outside of the Chinese-speaking world. Abroad, Xiaomi would likely revert to the standard Android system, looking to Western users much the same as a Samsung or an LG phone.

October 2013

Empire strikes back? If Lei can succeed in getting his phones into the palms of users across the globe, a larger threat looms. The tech genius must still consider if Google will strike back, not only for encroaching on its ecosystem empire, but for poaching an important operating systems man. The best lesson comes from the pressure Google applied to Acer when the Taiwan-based company announced a partnership with Alibaba a year ago. The Chinese e-commerce giant designed an interface rooted in the Android system, Aliyun, but Google coerced Acer into canceling the launch at the last moment. Later Google released a statement saying Aliyun was a “non-compatible version” of Android. The message from Google then was: Don’t take the free software too far. Google had just bought out Motorola and potentially saw the Acer-Alibaba tie-up as unwanted competition built

on the success of its software. Android is supposed to be open source, meaning it’s free and developed by a community. But Google still keeps to itself the most fundamental code, passing it onto the community only after it’s deemed ready. In that sense, Google still has a hold on the operating system as well as the interfaces built on it, such as MIUI. Google has yet to comment on MIUI or Barra. That may remain the case given the number of difficulties Xiaomi will face as it focuses on markets in other countries. It may stay under the radar abroad despite the hype it has generated at home, making it a less visible target. Still, the world’s biggest internet company is not one to be had, especially by a rookie firm across the Pacific. The question is whether or not Google deems it necessary to leverage its power over the operating system once again.

REPORT

Mobile money wars WeChat's tie-up with state-owned Chin Unicom puts a smiley face on sections of a highly volatile industry

he tie-up between China’s largest social media company and its second-largest mobile carrier has largely gone under the radar. In fact, China Unicom’s partnership with Tencent Holdings on its WeChat mobile chatting application has garnered little mention in the media and goes unreported in equities notes for the firms, signifying a feeling that it will have a negligible effect on company earnings for the time being. It’s no mystery why WoKa, the WeChat-branded sim card that China Unicom first started offering in Guangdong province last month, hasn’t generated much buzz from consumers. Rest assured, however, that internet firms and application makers that expect to proliferate on China’s mobile internet network celebrated the deal as a victory against a spiteful market regulator that makes their lives difficult. WoKa isn’t much. The sim card package gives subscribers extra voice time and mobile data. It would appear to have a younger target audience as it grants users customizable emoticons – the smiley faces and characters people send to each other – among other bonuses such as 300 megabits of free WeChat usage. It’s safe to say that better deals have existed for Chinese mobile users. The tie-up, though, is more of an implicit deal between the state-owned operator and the internet firm, and a guarantee of sorts that the government

won’t put its paws on Tencent. In March, the Ministry of Industry and Internet Technology (MIIT) implied that Tencent’s success with WeChat was taking a toll on the profits of the three mammoth telecom operators it oversees. Minister Miao Wei said the regulator could charge Tencent for the amount of bandwidth WeChat users were using, sending a chill through China’s over-the-top (OTT) industry, where companies make apps that rely on infrastructure such as mobile internet for customers to access products. The claim was preposterous. Mobile operators charge customers for – and profit from – the bandwidth they swallow up, whether it be via WeChat or a mobile video app such as Youku. MIIT was loath to admit it, but WeChat was hurting text revenue at mobile operators, namely China Mobile. Inadvertently, China’s telecom sector

revealed its continued reliance on earnings from services like text, a revenue stream companies should have weaned themselves off of long ago. MIIT hoped Tencent would eventually need to charge users for WeChat, a move that would likely trim its user base that now numbers more than 350 million. Fears faded on the potential for a fee in early May when Tencent Chairman Ma Huateng said WeChat would remain free after his company had reached deals with mobile operators. It’s unclear if the China Unicom tie-up is one of those agreements. Nevertheless, it promises a better relationship in the future between the state-controlled mobile operators and internet firms. “The bigger story is that this partnership will fundamentally disrupt the status quo in China’s telecoms market, where mobile operators have generally avoided partnerships and have strongly defended their competitive turf,” Shiv Putcha, principal analyst at Londonbased consultancy Ovum, wrote in a report in late August. Putcha said the partnership makes more sense for operators than trying to compete directly with social media platforms. The knot between the state and its competitor has been tied, giving a green light to others in the industry to pursue similar deals. Now Tencent and China Unicom can focus on forging packages that the market really wants – not just extra emoticons to pester friends with.

October 2013

封面故事

网络营销蝉蜕龙变大数据时代让在线营销更加精准化文 | 晗军

大数据的营销变革正在此刻发生

重

庆出产的涪陵榨菜近几年在华南地

显，一切皆数据。携程网高级副总裁汤澜

落，能够感觉到城市管理的脉络，把城市

区的销量下降明显，由此可以推断

展示了他的健康手环，每个人的自身特征

需要的所有东西都数字化，一切行为举止

华南地区的人口流出在加速。根据一种榨

可以通过这个手环进行自我量化，这种可

都落到数据的本质。柯细兴认为，这股非

菜在不同地区销售份额的变化情况，居然

穿戴设备的大量兴起，让所有人的身体特

常巨大的浪潮是所有人、所有机构无可避

可以推测出农民工的流动趋势，这个由国

征得以数据化。这就是大数据的趋势。

免的，只有去拥抱这一浪潮。一切都皆数

家发改委官员提出的非正式理论，就被称

柯细兴认为，高德地图和百度地图的

据化的趋势会愈演愈烈。营销行业最热的

为“榨菜指数”，而这个指数就依托于大

相继免费意味着地图的价值在于量化的数

就是RTV（实时竞价）变革。其实最大变

数据。

据，而不在于使用价值。地图、地理信息

革是把广告由原来买媒体、买广告位，变

当下掀起大数据热的同时，正是精准

的数据化、个人地理信息的数据化，又让

成了买电脑背后的受众，这是基于大数据

营销艰难的转变过程。大数据最核心的价

大数据进一步延伸。不管是淘宝、还是百

的应用结果。

值，就是对数据的深度挖掘和利用，大数

度都相继出重拳去进行收购，BAT的收购

据时代下的营销变革正在此刻发生。电商

风潮背后的逻辑都是数据的逻辑，淘宝收

企业最关注的是如何利用好大数据，让成

购高德，淘宝收购UC，淘宝收购友盟，这

大数据的价值还处于冰山下面，现在

交更为精准。

些都是移动数据逻辑、地理数据逻辑。这

看到的冰山还是很小一部分。大数据并不

些收购意味着数据变得越来越有价值。

仅在于数据量大，而在于数据的多样化、

大数据是全新的领域。亿玛创始人兼总裁柯细兴的观点是：现在的趋势非常明

October 2013

智慧城市的规划是让所有城市的角

大数据的价值

有效性以及数据的价值性。

从浅层次理解，大数据能实现更懂

业。柯细兴认为，在高校云集的上海，大

父亲反而道歉了，因为他发现女儿已经怀

用户、产品、城市、生活。第二步能够分

数据人才的培养是政府和行业组织应予重

孕了，而且8个月以后就要生育了。

析，能够知其所以然，知道背后是什么。

视和加以推动的。

这种分析技术层出不穷，能够知道销量涨跌的原因。

“不得不承认这家网站比这位父亲更

柯细兴希望，成千上万中国的互联网

了解他女儿，但是网站并不认识他女儿。

企业应用大数据把业务变得更加高效、智

数据提供了一切，得出结论，然后推销产

大数据带来的更高价值就是预测，而

慧和精准，希望更多人能够应用大数据，

品。而且不是某个人专门来做这些事情，

预测会让社会变得更加有条不紊。柯细兴

给想从事互联网业务或者已经从事互联网

而是一个系统在做。”赵涌说道。

相信再过5到10年，这些是可以看得到的

业务的企业提供更多更好的服务。

现实。大数据能够带来价值，而数据可以挖掘出来。他认为数据要产生价值，需要具备四个方面的前提条件。

大数据今后的影响就是很大的系统，效果可能是意想不到的。个人的精准定

文化艺术数据化

位、言论、思想、消费、社交都会被数据

赵涌在线CEO赵涌通过一个“故

化，个人可能只是一个移动的号码。此

第一个是技术。依托于大数据技术，

事”说明大数据营销的神奇。美国第三大

时，对于企业，尤其电子商务企业，数据

不管是大数据存储技术还是挖掘技术和设

购物网站曾经有过一次经历，一位父亲气

就变得尤为重要。赵涌认为，数据在今天

备技术，中国必须要紧追，在这个领域已

愤地向这家网站的经理投诉：“为什么给

是知识的来源，没有数据寸步难行。数据

经落后。柯细兴希望，今天的创业者，围

我在读中学的女儿推荐一些打折的婴儿

已经被公认为是一种财富了，而且企业对

绕着大数据的技术创新和创业机会非常

用品，就好像我女儿接下来就要生孩子似

于数据的重要性和挖掘、采集的能力，积

多，如果没有技术突破，大数据的魅力将

的，这样是非常不道德的。”过了一段时

累的数据量，都是竞争力的表现。

无法发挥。

间，当这个经理准备打电话道歉时，这位

赵涌在线设计的一个板块是与收

第二个是应用。大数据的精准应用能够发挥作用，再进一步延伸就是浏览即购买，现在从浏览一个产品再到购买的路径很长。柯细兴相信未来会改变，这是基于用户体验的感知，也是大数据给营销带来的变化。还有很多如车联网、物联网、O2O都创新了很多大数据应用，让线下零售发生了翻天覆地的变化。第三个是思维。技术可以拿来，应用可以创造，但是思维是决定性的。首先要有开放的思维方式。百度掌握了搜索数据，淘宝掌握了商品数据，腾讯掌握了社交数据，这三家可以互通么？现在不能，未来也很难。柯细兴与这三家都聊过，提出可以通过亿玛实现互通。这是非常有趣的话题，目前还没有谁愿意通过直接或者间接方式进行大数据的互通。他觉得思维是不是开放会制约大数据的发展，包括大数据的思维创新，否则很难赶超潮流。第四点就是人才。无论是大数据的挖掘人才还是大数据的技术人才、分析人才和应用人才，在国内能数得上来的寥寥无几。目前没有哪家高校在开展大数据的专业人才培训，更不要说开设专业了。美国刚开始开设大数据科学或大数据分析专

大数据带来的更高价值就是预测

October 2013

封面故事

藏、艺术、文化有关，在收藏板块时

赵涌举了一个例子。今天交朋友可以

互联网上能够带来99%网络点评的数据规

间比较久、有一定积累。赵涌认为，收藏

数据化了，身高、三围、学历、出生、星

模，这些数据的规模在爆炸性地增长。实

领域真正按照数据挖掘、数据积累的非常

座都被数据化了，有了数据的支撑，成功

际上在以前2.0时代已完成了交互式的数

少，实际上是一片处女地，相信今后会有

率会更高一些。文化艺术怎样来挑战数据

据，利用这些技术，慧评网监测了中国十

越来越多的同行或者机构涉足这个领域。

化？他相信进入大数据时代，文化艺术是

几万家酒店，提炼出来的客户观点，能够

逃脱不了数据化这条路的。

帮助企业管理和运营。数据挖掘有一大块

赵涌在线最早从邮票做起，所以邮票数据的积累是最丰富的，而且也做出了基本的标准化。接下来开拓了钱币，因为这

来自于非结构性的语言数据，也就是自然

人工智能挖掘大数据

语言描述。更多的用户观点实际上是通过

两项是不受物流影响的。这些数据形成曲

慧评网是与人工智能相关的企业，

语言的表达被精准地挖掘出来，这构成了

线，会影响市场、影响标准，也会影响今

运用了语言分析技术。慧评网联合创始人

酒店业的增值服务。酒店管理是很复杂的

后的发展和投资的取向。

孙轶平表示，大数据不是数据要大，而是

过程，如何运用系统化的工具，依赖于对

这个板块会涉及到很多项目，包括电

数据要全。很多网上数据不是结构性的数

于数据本身的挖掘。数据挖掘要做到数据

话卡、文献、当代艺术、酒类、汽车、文

据，将非结构性的数据变成结构性的数

的全面，这样的工作分析本身就是挑战。

玩、房产等。但这些板块数据的积累非常

据，还可以给到做前端的营销、中间的管

孙轶平认为，数据挖掘还只是一个方

少，能够看到的都是一些传统数据，电商

理，甚至客户的售后维护，所有这些就构

面，真正的应用应该是寻找更多的边际效

数据、网络数据以及客户行为数据目前基

成了“大数据”。

应。这种交互的边际结果，能够带给电商

本是空白。这个板块至今停留在传统的概

体验经济时代讲网络体验，因而有了

念。网上交易出现较晚，今年开始注意到

各种附加价值。如何在体验经济中通过这

了互联网、数据和电商化的重要性，但真

些数据提高客户的忠诚度？如何吸引更多

正要利用数据的积累和挖掘，潜在的市场

的客户，把客户的分享变成企业的财富？

更多的指导意义。

大数据让成交更精准从“榨菜指数”可以看出打工族在

慧评网对大数据的运用有所实践，已

全国分布流向的情况，而大数据和消费者

收藏板块的数据挖掘和积累，对整体

经将大数据工作落实到具体的行业。如旅

隐私现在确是比较敏感的问题，如“棱镜

大数据的融合有一定挑战性，收藏有精神

游行业包含了从选择、到决策、到预订、

门”事件就涉及到了隐私。做互联网广

性、审美和爱好的一面，在这个基础上还

到入住、到最后分享的五段过程。那么，

告、挖掘数据是为精准广告做很好的推

是可以数据化。很多同行对赵涌说“我们

如何把分享出来的内容，结合在入住过程

广，应该怎样处理精准广告与保护隐私之

需要直觉，我们需要手感”，这些是没有

中的数据和记录中？

间的关系？

远远比现在大得多。

首先是实践了酒店业的大数据工作。

办法数据化的。

“大数据和隐私实际上没有必然的关系。”柯细兴认为，如果牵涉到隐私，就是以个人身份信息为主导的数据，必然会

2011Q1-2013Q2 中国网络广告市场规模

由保护隐私的法规来进行规范和约束。 350 300

72.6% 59.5% 58.7% 47.9% 11.2% 60.3% 43.6% 34.4% 38.6% 27.4% 27.8% 13.5% 28.4% 25.4% 13.7% 6.5% -5.8% -12.9%

-10.2%

250 207.1

200

220.5

182.6

据，知道这个PC终端或者手机终端有可能

232.6

喜欢什么，但并不知道这个终端背后的人是谁。匿名数据是否属于隐私数据，或者

198.1

属不属于要严格依法规范管理的数据，各

142.9

国可能有不同意见。美国有相应的行业规

115.0

100

行业，大部分使用的是机器数据或匿名数

17.4%

164.1 144.3

150

他表示，互联网广告或很多大数据

范，可以软约束，但不能滥用。

89.6

机器的大数据称为匿名数据。知道 50

终端使用者有可能喜欢什么，所以给他看合适的广告，这是一种用户体验的改善，

0 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1e 2013Q2e

市场规模（亿元）

环比增长率（%）

来源：根据企业公开财报、行业访谈及艾瑞统计预测模型估算，仅供参考。

October 2013

同比增长率（%）

目的也是单纯的，背后的数据等级也是非常低的。因此，柯细兴并不认为互联网的精准广告会遇到隐私的挑战。至少在行业

iResearch

内，包括互联网协会也能够达成共识。因

利用好大数据，让成交更为精准

为牵涉到大数据行业的发展，他愿意与其

构能够进行分析，这在国内外都已经成熟

象。一些大网站以自己的技术能力，从用

他企业和个人共同来探讨这些问题。

了。赵涌补充道：“对于电子商务来说，

户上网开始就记录每个行为，包括用户安

中国的商业文化有一个问题，几大巨

行为数据数量非常庞大，因为有不同的

全、商品安全、交易安全，甚至在后台就

头之间的数据很难交换，每家企业都在提

点。但是经过分析后，我们会建立一些虚

进行了跟踪。这些是在防欺诈、网络安全

防着其他企业，都希望自己的数据越来越

拟的模型，而这些模型将基本的用户进行

方面的应用。

多，但就是不愿意相互交换。慧评网是怎

典型性分类。”

大数据往往都是大公司在玩，成本也

大数据有哪些具体的应用？柯细兴

很高，而且数据必须要足够的多，以后才

孙轶平解释道：“其实这和营销层面

认为，电商深层的应用会改变整个运营。

能体现出它的价值。那么，小企业在大数

还是有一些区别。我们挖掘基于这些文字

举例来说，已经看到，对于每个不同的用

据时代应该怎么创业？

内容中间的一些知识，一是点评、二是引

户单独定价。现在完全是一对多的定价模

毛丞宇认为，中小企业一种像慧评网

擎。首先是公开信息，不存在挖掘谁的私

式，基于商品的定价模式、基于一对多的

这样，自己有大数据基因，有技术能力，

人信息。”所做的工作实际上是给评价某

定价模式，在大数据时代会被颠覆。“以

找一个垂直的行业进去做服务，也能做一

家酒店或者评价某种服务方式，打一个标

后不存在比价行为，只会存在这个价格是

家小而美的公司。如果没有这方面的基

签。将互联网的数据给到艺龙、携程服务

不是用户所认可的，我觉得这个是已经看

因，就去利用大数据平台。比如在互联网

的酒店，服务对象没有涉及到携程运营数

得见的。所以说价格竞争在这个时代就不

上投广告，然后把流量导到淘宝上去，成

据，也不涉及到艺龙的运营数据，只是互

存在了。”他说道。

交以后意味着会提供一套工具，将在网页

样获得其他企业信任的？

联网上公开的点评信息。

通过数据挖掘，更加精准地推荐商

里的跳转、点击，购物栏里成交的数据都

收藏品和艺术整体来说数据的挖掘不

品，在电商是一种应用。IDG资本合伙人

能够反馈回来，与在外面投放的广告数据

像现淘宝、1号店、京东有精准化的数据

毛丞宇表示，其实淘宝和国外eBay这些大

结合在一起，这样可以对广告投放做更好

采集点，这些采集点已经有技术团队和机

企业，对数据的应用已经超出了人们的想

的ROI分析。

October 2013

REPORT

Apple crumble The announcement is a new iPhone did not generate the usual China frenzy this time round. Is Apple doomed on the mainland?

o much for the hype surrounding Apple’s product launch in China. Analysts were positive the company would announce not only a new, low-priced smartphone, the iPhone 5C, but a long-awaited partnership with China Mobile, the world’s largest telecom operator with more than 730 million users. Apple delivered on neither. The phone will cost more than US$700, pricing out the bulk of Chinese customers. The eager audience in Beijing was also thoroughly underwhelmed by the recording of the US launch that the company played for them in lieu of the characteristic Apple presentation. Significantly, there was no deal with China Mobile to speak of. However, a document from China’s telecom regulator showed that Apple has indeed been granted a license to use the company’s 4G network, which has yet to be launched.

Missing the market Apple’s outlook in the world’s largest smartphone market has rapidly deteriorated. The iPhone has been pushed from the fourth most-popular smart device to No. 7 in about a year. The gadget’s market share has declined from about 9% down to 5%. Industry watchers are now questioning whether or not the new phone can make Apple a meaningful player in the world’s largest market for smartphones.

October 2013

Although the iPhone 5C might be cheap compared to other Apple models, it is still far too expensive for consumers in small cities around China at the reported price of US$733. If the company was hoping to cash in on the hordes of Chinese that are expected to buy a phone this year, it has completely missed the mark. Second- and third-tier cities are teeming with young people looking to get on the high-tech ladder. Some 300 million smartphones are expected to be sold in the country this year. The China price point is between US$130 and US$163. Now, those customers are likely to skip the Apple store and opt for a product from a local firm such as Xiaomi, which sells phones at just over what it costs to build them. At the same time, the release of the 5C will damage Apple’s high-end profile. Since the advent of the iPhone and the subsequent smartphone era, Apple products have been coveted by Chinese as a status symbol. One Chinese youth even reportedly sold a kidney to get his hands on a unit. The 5C could erode the image that drove such a compulsion to own the product. Some are already joking that the “C” stands for “cheap.”

A meeting of giants Even without the a tie-up between China Mobile and Apple, the US firm still has substantial support from China two smaller mobile carriers. The

poison apple rather would be missing the launch of 4G, with data speeds that would complement smartphones, which China Mobile will likely lead. Much has been said about China Mobile’s customer base in China. And rightly so: The state-owned firm provides telecommunications services to more people than any other company in the world. Combined user numbers at the two smaller telecos, China Unicom and China Telecom, still fall about 235 million users short of China mobile’s total. However, when comparing 3G users, the behemoth’s advantage looks far smaller. In June, China Mobile had 129 million smartphone-toting customers. The two smaller companies had a combined 179 million users. One bit of information that did escape the lackluster launch today was that Apple would be shipping the 5C to the smaller companies, both of which Apple partners with. The importance of an Apple-China Mobile tie-up will become clearer toward the end of the year as the carrier prepares to launch 4G. China Mobile will likely have long head start on the other outfits. Now that Apple has the license to supply phones for China Mobile’s 4G network, it will have to work out the kinks in what is likely a deal nearing completion. When it is ready to go public, the launch needs to be more meaningful than what has come before.

REPORT

The state of state reform China’s vast network of powerful government-controlled enterprises needs a shake-up, and a reformer in the control tower

iang Jiemin’s toppling as the head of the State-owned Asset Supervision Administration Commission (SASAC) has kicked up lots of dirt on the political heavyweight’s connection to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and a band of former associates that the Communist Party has also detained. The political intrigue runs deep. Jiang’s “severe disciplinary violations” could tether him to a sinking ship captained by the elite-but-disposed Bo Xilai who was tried on similar charges late last month. But don’t forget that Jiang’s ouster also quietly lopped off the head of SASAC, which oversees trillions of dollars in state-owned assets. Depending on who replaces Jiang, the shakeup has the potential to brush another layer of reform-resistant lacquer over stateowned enterprise (SOE) – or perhaps expedite positive change during a time of ambiguity. “Reform for state assets and stateowned firms has already entered a period of confusion,” reads a frontpage report from the most recent issue of The Economic Observer, an independent Chinese weekly newspaper.“Reform for deep-seated institutional obstacles has been in a period of hesitation for years.” Two of SASAC’s characteristics make this kind of dilly-dallying on reform increasingly dangerous. First, the organ wields immense

power and, according to some pundits, acts not as the supervisor but “owner” of all of the country’s monopolies on strategic industries such as oil, transportation and telecommunications. Its leaders have been tightening control for a decade. Since the establishment of SASAC in 2003, support for state firms has strengthened while private enterprises have reluctantly been shunted to the side. The following decade is often described by the Chinese idiom guojinmintui, or “the state advances, the people retreat.” Today, SASAC has little bureaucratic intervention from other government departments and, with the leaders of state firms, operates without oversight or competition. “The public sector has effectively delegated its rights to a few agents acting on their behalf; these agents have almost become the actual owners of the enterprises,” according to a 2012 report from the Unirule Institute of Economics, an independent non-governmental think tank based in Beijing. A second, potentially more alarming note is that the state assets are struggling and many sectors have amassed incredible amounts of debt. For example, China’s steel sector had a debt ratio of about 70% as of June, or about US$490 billion in outstanding loans. SASAC is in need of a reformer at its head. The top leadership position at the organ is not a perfunctory role: It

vests the chairman with real power to reform SOEs, Zhao Long, a professor at Unirule said. Past experience doesn’t hold out much hope. Jiang’s appointment to SASAC in March was not a step toward reform. In fact, it was another step backward. Before Jiang took the position, he headed CNPC, one of China’s biggest and most powerful SOEs. Wang Yong, Jiang’s predecessor, was the head of a state-backed aerospace corporation before he took the reins at the organ. Choosing a new head for SASAC from a pool of state firm bosses is a sure way to maintain the government’s hold on industry while potentially dragging the massive enterprises deeper into the red. When leaders at state firms move into government, they are indebted to the companies that brought them to power and will likely support such enterprises, often with massive subsidies. There’s also little hope of them allowing firms to file for bankruptcy, an important step toward reforming the state sector. The next head of SASAC will likely be plucked from the top of a state enterprise. The Economic Observer says that the names of three SOE bosses are being traded in Beijing’s corridors. Those looking for signs of real change will watch the appointment carefully on the off-chance that a reformer is tasked with grappling a fiercely independent beast loyal to its own.

October 2013

REPORT

The painful lure of China EU companies are still struggling to ﬁnd the right way to do business in the promised land

hina as a market for international firms is growing in size and importance by the day. Doing business here, however, can still be a huge pain. At least that is the view of European companies operating in the country, according to a position paper released by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, a lobby group. Presenting the annual report at an event in September to business representatives, Stephen Sack, chairman of the Shanghai chapter of the chamber, said that while improvements were noticeable, difficulties were also mounting. The number of “deteriorations” in the business environment such as unequal enforcement of regulations reported by EU companies operating in China had risen from a year earlier – marking the first time the chamber had noted such an increase. Sack cautioned that this risked becoming a trend. Worsening conditions are a major concern for companies that believe growing China sales can offset stagnating business in home markets. Nearly half of European companies say China now accounts for more than 10% of their global revenues, according to a separate business confidence survey released by the chamber in May. In certain industries that percentage is far higher. Chinese drivers have been the biggest buyers of autos worldwide for the best part of the last three years, boosting the fortunes of strug-

October 2013

gling foreign firms such as Buick of the US. German luxury automaker BMW sees China becoming its largest market by the end of 2013. Consumer goods brands are in thrall to the Chinese. Many of the obstacles faced by all foreign companies, not just those from Europe, appear to be entrenched. Key among those is the partisan treatment received by domestic companies, especially larger state-owned enterprises. The report noted that they receive preference in the allocation of government research and development funding and are beneficiaries of regulations in certain sectors that force foreign companies to team up with a local partner to do business. For many executives the biggest headache comes not from business restrictions, which almost all countries impose to some extent, but from legal opaqueness. China has a solid regulatory framework compared to many of its emerging market peers but enforcement is patchy at best. Officials at the local level, who in fact have more autonomy from the central government that they are given credit for, often pick and choose what applies to foreign firms. For example, some business inspection fees scrapped by the government are still occasionally applied in some places. The lack of consultation on such issues only adds to the frustrations. A social insurance law that came into force in mid-July 2011 requiring companies to pay social welfare

costs for foreign employees is still not applied equally in all regions. More recently, new visa regulations introduced at the start of this September have created disquiet because of longer processing times for residency permits. Last year Shanghai became the first city to trial a new value-added tax that imposes a levy of 6% on logistics services. But companies are not readily able to pass this cost on, biting into their margins. “Normally we don’t even detail this in our invoices as customers wouldn’t understand it, wouldn’t be willing to pay for it,” the China sales director of a large European logistics company told China Economic Review. “They [tax officials] have no idea what VAT is.” China is no longer the “Wild West” that executives who have been in the country for more than a decade remember with a mix of nostalgia and relief. Officials are better attuned to dealing with multinationals and tend to be more forward-thinking in their approach to global business. The EU report acknowledges that there has been progress in cutting back red tape on investment approval, liberalization in the financial services sector and opening up new business areas. Yet progress is painfully slow. China’s pledges to open up when it joined the World Trade Organization 10 years ago have not been met. As Sack noted, the EU chamber has existed for 13 years but many of the “problems [today] remain the same.”

REPORT

Up, down or sideways? There have been mixed signals from China’s ofﬁcial statisticians on the state of the economy in the past few weeks, but on balance the tea leaves read positive for now

fficial data showed exports in August rose 7.2% from a year earlier, surpassing all forecasts. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing hit a 16-month high while a private PMI of the service sector gave the best reading in five months. Figures for industrial production and fixed-asset investment (FAI) have added to the rosy picture. This has China watchers talking about “stabilization” in the world’s second-largest economy. The panic of the past few months has moderated, at least in mainstream discourse, and will likely give investors a lift. Economists have responded to the changes accordingly. Following the recent data UBS, Deutsche Bank and Nomura hiked their growth forecasts for 2013 to 7.6% or higher. These data however are not good news. “China’s economy is picking up speed. But the rebound is skewed towards investment, with state-led spending on infrastructure particularly strong,” London-based consultancy Capital Economics said in a note. A closer peak at the numbers shows that credit and infrastructure spending are behind the “recovery.” As long as these traditional growth drivers continue to keep the economy ticking along and meeting targets, officials might shy back from pressing ahead with needed reforms. Infrastructure spending surged 29.3% from a year earlier in August,

the highest pace since December 2009. Growth in project authorization by local governments picked up to 22.6% year-on-year in August, from below 20% for the previous two months, offsetting a slowdown in central government backed investment, HSBC China economists said in a report. Factory output surged 10.4% yearon-year, the biggest gain in 17 months, and was up 0.93% on a monthly basis. Power plants generated 498.7 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, up 13.4% from a year earlier. Such a big jump in power can only come on demand from heavy industry, an economic stalwart – steel output growth accelerated to 15.6% in August from 10.9% in July. Hardly signs of a tilt towards new industries and consumption; not promising either for sectors plagued by overcapacity and mounting debt piles. Wasn’t consumption supposed to

be the new source of economic expansion? Perhaps it will be, but the pace of growth in retail sales in August lagged that of industrial sectors. Fueling this is Beijing’s low-key “mini-stimulus” enacted at the end of June. Capital was directed at new industries as well as traditional infrastructure projects in underdeveloped parts of the country where they could deliver the biggest economic boost. The healthier looking state of the economy today should therefore not come as much of a surprise. Instead, it should be a concern. Just as we were seeing signs of reform – less off-sheet balance lending, indications that officials could lower GDP growth targets to enable meaningful rebalancing – old issues resurfaced. Take a look at credit. Total social financing, the broadest measure of money in the economy, rose to US$256 billion in August from US$163 billion in July. Shadow banking activity – the source of so much dangerous debt – is showing signs of a revival. Entrusted loans, which are made between companies with a bank acting as a middle man, hit an all time high in August. Nobody should be fooled: Tough times are ahead. Although third and fourth quarter growth has been given shot of stimulus steroids to meet the headline 7.5% figure for the year, 2014 won’t be pretty. Strong GDP data coming will be an indicator that things are getting worse.

October 2013

话题

从虚拟到实体互联网行业的龙头企业开始实施“落地战略” 文 | 铁琴

微企业、创业团队和工作室入驻。将围绕文化创意青年人才和团队的创业、创意、工作、生活、娱乐等需求，以面向未来的城市社区为载体，致力于构建全新的文化创意产业综合生态系统。盛大天地总裁傅逞军表示：“我们正在积极探索‘下一代的文化创意产业城市社区’的建设和运营，希望把这里塑造成为互联网和科技传媒文化相关产业的聚集区，尤其是为小微创意创业团队和工作室营造理想的孵化空间和加速平台。” 据悉，园区内还包含了近10万平米、以青年互动文化娱乐为主题的创新商业娱乐综合体，规划了配套的文化主题酒店、互动演艺广场、超酷影院、实验剧场等面向未来的娱乐业态，旨在通过盛大天地独创的线上线下联动的平台运营，打造未来上海首屈一指的青年文化娱乐地标。越来越多的互联网公司开始“落地”

该项目的问世，代表了从事互联网文化产业14年的盛大网络首度涉足实体经

络经济在习惯上被称为“虚拟经

网

开始“落地”，以各种方式向实体经济进

济。傅逞军认为，这恰恰与盛大成立初时

济”。但近年来的趋势显示，网

军。如一些大型电子商务企业自建物流体

就确立的“互动让生活更生动”的愿景一

络经济与实体经济的关系越来越密切。首

系就是一例。

脉相承，也是对当前虚拟世界和现实世界相互融合的大趋势开展的战略布局。

当其冲就是电子商务中线上线下相结合的

而今，在虚拟经济的互动娱乐领域，

O2O模式。“O2O就是在移动互联网时

也出现了另一种“落地”形式。盛大网络

“盛大多年来在包括网络游戏、网

代，生活消费领域通过线上（虚拟世界）

旗下的盛大天地公司9月初宣布，作为盛大

络文学、视频动漫等互联网文化领域积累

和线下（现实世界）互动的一种新型商业

集团“线上线下互动发展”的重大战略，

的大量资源，已经到了‘落地开花’的时

模式。”这是张波在《O2O：移动互联网

位于上海浦东中环边张江南区的“盛大

候。”傅逞军接着表示，“通过高品质、

时代的商业革命》中给出的定义。

天地”文化创意产业园区项目已经全面开

大能级的下一代文化创意产业城市社区的

他认为，移动互联网时代的到来，互

工，预计一期可在2015年交付使用。而首

实践，不断推动区域价值提升，同时满足

联网世界和现实世界互动变得异常简单，

发作品“盛大天地·青春里”已正式开放

青年人才的事业发展与生活娱乐需求—

于是生活服务的移动互联网化开始了。在

展示中心。

我们相信盛大对文化地产领域迈出的这一

生活服务领域中，通过线上虚拟世界和线

该项目总建筑面积70万平方米，将以

下现实世界互动的新型商业模式，这就是

创意产业之城、青年人才之城、互动娱乐

O2O商务模式。

步，能够为国内城市化发展探索出一条创新之路。”

之城和虚拟现实之城，为特色的文化创意

互动娱乐领域的龙头企业走出网络，

实际上，O2O模式仅仅是虚拟经济

社区呈现。旨在吸纳盛大集团下属各文化

投资建设文化创意园区，为虚拟经济与实

与实体经济相融合的模式之一，还远远不

创意企业、产业链上下游和其他关联的文

体经济的融合推波助澜，此举将会带来怎

是全部。近年来，越来越多的互联网公司

化骨干企业、创新发展的创意和互联网小

样的示范效应，值得关注。

October 2013

发现之旅新丝绸之路将促进中国与土耳其的经贸往来和文化交流

成于2000多年前的古丝绸之路将

形

交往远远落后于应有的水平，这也是两国

地上的古老文明和历史文化名城的图案浮

会老树发新芽，焕发生机。近期

政府将去年定为“2012土耳其中国文化

雕等文学、科学和艺术遗产通过3D模型呈

国内媒体纷纷报道了有关“丝绸之路经济

年”和将今年定为“2013中国土耳其文化

现给中国客人。在土耳其出口产品展览会

带”的建设构想，并给予积极评价。中国

年”的原因。为加强两国的文化交流和经

上，以各种不同形式展示土耳其制造并销

国家主席习近平9月在中亚访问和出席国际

贸往来，由土耳其-中国工商业协会主办、

售到世界各地的产品，该国企业也将有机

会议时多次提到了这一战略构想。

土耳其旅游与文化部协办的第一届土耳其

会进一步了解世界最大的交易市场之一，

“丝绸之路经济带”是中国与中亚西

文化与美食节10月初在上海世贸商城举

并找到特殊的平台。土耳其美食主要源自

亚各国形成的经济合作区域，大致在古丝

行。这是土耳其年非常重要的活动，希望

于奥斯曼时期，融合中亚、中东和巴尔干

绸之路范围内。东边是亚太经济圈，西边

充分地向中国民众展现该国的风采。

地区的美食，包括著名的土耳其咖啡、冰

是发达的欧洲经济圈，因而被视为“世界

活动主场馆由5座城市的展台和模型

淇淋等。土耳其传统手工艺品历史悠久，

上最长且最具有发展潜力的经济走廊”。

组成，包括特洛伊木马、托普卡普宫廷大

品种多样，包括地毯、纺织品、瓷砖、陶

该经济带覆盖总人口30亿，市场规模和潜

门模型、著名的蓝色清真寺大模型、大舞

器、刺绣等。

力巨大。

台和棉花城堡等主题。土耳其地处欧洲和

古丝绸之路的两端是中国和土耳其，

从古至今，安纳托利亚大陆一直是东

中交汇之出，三面临海，横跨重要的贸易

土耳其也希望复兴古丝绸之路。而“丝绸

西两地交流的桥梁，是丝绸之路最重要的

航线，拥有着古老而深邃的文化，这些文

之路经济带”的构想和实施将对两国在经

联结点。古丝绸之路起源于中国，经过中

化在各种舞蹈中得以体现。建立在该国土

贸文化等领域的合作带来新的发展契机。

亚沿着不同路线穿过安纳托利亚大陆最后延伸到欧洲，而土耳其的伊斯坦布尔就是古丝绸之路的终点。今年是土耳其共和国建国90周年，现代土耳其是民主和法制的社会，工业和农业都很发达。土耳其目前经济实力排名列世界第17位，欧洲排名第6，经济增速世界第二，仅次于中国。拥有现代化的通讯和交通网络，教育发达，民众安居乐业。土耳其经济被IMF定义为“新兴的市场经济”，发展势头良好。该国正在成为新兴工业化国家之一，很多行业已处于世界领先水平，包括农产品、纺织、汽车、船舶及交通运输设备、建材、消费类电子产品和家用电器。尽管土耳其意识到中国崛起的时间相对较晚，但两国关系在近几年加速发展。两国领导人于2010年提出建立战略伙伴关系。2011年，两国双边贸易额达 190亿美元，中国已经成为土耳其第三大贸易国，到2015年两国双边贸易有望实现更大的突破。许多专家也指出，两国在文化领域的

连接欧亚大陆的博斯普鲁斯海峡大桥

October 2013

焦点瑞典

携手创新之国瑞典的创新精神和品牌建设能力最值得效仿文 | 晨曦

中

国与瑞典的经贸往来渊源流长，

第一大市场，而瑞典则是中国在北欧的最

可以追溯到几百年前。在北欧诸

大经济合作伙伴。

出身豪门的欧洲汽车品牌竟然被中国“土得掉渣”的民营企业收入囊中，这曾让一些购买了该品牌的中国车主后悔不

国中，瑞典的中文译名是最为典雅的。在

爱立信、沃尔沃、萨博、ABB伊莱

中国早期记载瑞典的著作中，对于当地风

克斯电器、宜家家居、利乐包、H&M服

土人情的描写常常是美好的。清朝末年，

装……这些中国消费者耳熟能详的国际品

沃尔沃汽车的中国总部落户在了上

一位随中国外交官游历瑞典的中国学生对

牌均出自该国，并且都在中国市场上攻城

海。今年9月，位于成都的生产工厂正式投

该国男女留下颇为有趣的印象：“男多壮

掠地，安营扎寨。

产。最新数据显示，今年上半年，沃尔沃

迭：早知今日，何必当初。

中国在瑞典的投资则不多。中国最大

汽车虽亏损了8700万美元，但在中国地区

的通信设备制造商华为科技在斯德哥尔摩

的销售却猛增了三分之二。看来这一收购

行列。中国大陆开放后，“北欧模式”曾

设立了研发中心—瑞典研究院，而其竞

确实有助其开拓中国市场，消费者还是认

经令很多中国人为之神往，尤其是社会福

争对手中兴通讯的研究中心也接踵而至。

这个品牌。

利体系。然而，这一模式也受到了挑战，

几年前，华为在与爱立信的竞逐中胜出，

在席卷全球的金融危机中，瑞典经济饱受

获得了瑞典第四代通讯网的建构项目。

士，膂力方刚；女多美人，铅华一洗。” 而今，瑞典早就跻身世界最富国家的

作为中国本土企业，收购并非仅仅为了眼前的市场，从长远来看，更应该学习

创伤，欧元区债务危机导致去年国内生产

在两国企业的你来我往中，最轰动的

总值出现下滑。不过，从大趋势来看，仍

莫过于中国吉利集团收购沃尔沃汽车。沃

瑞典是发明家诺贝尔的故乡，他一

然渐呈复苏迹象。

他们的创新精神和品牌建设能力。

尔沃汽车曾是瑞典沃尔沃集团旗下的子公

生拥有355项发明专利，但真正让他的名

瑞典是最早与中华人民共和国建交的

司，早在1999年就已出售给了美国福特汽

字不朽的则是诺贝尔奖。安全火柴、活动

西方国家，两国在经贸领域的合作向来比

车公司，但沃尔沃毕竟是发端于瑞典的国

扳手、饮料盒、心脏起搏器、炸药、蓝

较默契和顺畅。目前中国是瑞典在亚洲的

际品牌。

牙……均是“创新之国”瑞典的发明。这个北欧最大的国家，国土面积仅约45万平方公里，与中国黑龙江或甘肃省大致相当；人口只有900多万，跟武汉、温州这些二线城市的常住人口相差无几。“蕞尔小国”为何具有如此强劲的创新能力？秘诀在于重视科研和教育，通过需求来推动创新，并考虑到商业化的可行性，进而孕育出众多纵横四海的跨国企业。瑞典的强势产业涵盖了信息技术、移动通信产业、生物科技、汽车、木材制造、军工等。中国与瑞典在经贸领域极具互补性和互利性。对中国企业而言，瑞典的创新精神和品牌建设最具吸引力，也最值得效仿。几百年前，中国的丝绸、茶叶和瓷器曾经风靡欧洲和瑞典，现在情况正相反。古语云：“来而不往非礼也。”经过长期的学习和追赶，“中国货”有没有可能重

远眺瑞典城市

October 2013

现当年的盛况呢？

SPOTLIGHT SWEDEN

Following the road of innovation The clear focus of Swedish companies on innovation and brand-building is worth following

conomic exchanges between China and Sweden go back hundreds of years. In the late Qing dynasty, a Chinese student who visited Sweden along with diplomats was impressed with the Swedes as a people, saying that the men were muscular and the ladies were beautiful. There are even more reasons to admire Sweden today. Sweden has long been on the list of the world’s wealthiest countries. “The Nordic Model,” especially its well-established welfare system, was given the thumbs-up by many Chinese people after mainland China started opening up. However, the system has been through a difficult period with the Swedish economy hard hit by the global financial crisis.The Eurozone debt crisis exacerbated the downward trend, makingthe Nordic country’s GDP fall last year. Despite this, there are strong indications of economic recovery. Sweden was the first western country to have established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China, and the two nations’ economic dialogue has always been positive. China is Sweden’s largest market in Asia, while Sweden is China’s largest Nordic trade partner. Ericsson, Volvo, Saab, ABB, Electrolux, IKEA, TetraPak, H&M – all these big brands come from Sweden and are looking to expand their footprint in the Chinese market. On the flip side, China has made smaller investments in Sweden. As

China’s largest telecom equipment maker, Huawei Technologies set up its R&D center in Sweden with its rival ZTE Corporation following suit. Just a few years ago, Huawei outmuscled its local rival Ericsson and won a Swedish 4G network deal. The highest-profile transaction between the two countries in recent years was the acquisition of Volvo Cars by China’s Geely Group. Although the vehicle brand was sold to Ford Motor Company in 1999, Volvo Cars has its root in Sweden and used to be a subsidiary of Volvo Group. Regardless, the announced deal stirred complaints among some Chinese Volvo car owners, who felt uncomfortable that a high end European auto brand like Volvo could become the property of a Chinese company. Volvo established its China base in Shanghai and started production in Chengdu in September. The latest data shows Volvo reporting a loss of US$87 million in the first half of the year with its Chinese market sales surging by two thirds. This suggests that the acquisition has had a positive impact on Volvo’s expansion in China with consumer demands still strong. Chinese firms need to learn how to innovate and build brands from their Sweden peers through various methods, including M&A, instead of simply focusing on the immediate market. Sweden is the birthplace of the great inventor Alfred Nobel who boasted 355 patents during his lifetime, with

the Nobel Prize giving him continued prominence. Safety matches, monkey wrenches, beverage boxes, heart pacemakers, explosives, Bluetooth….are all inventions from Sweden. While it is the largest country of North Europe, Sweden has roughly the same land area as China’s Heilongjiang province or Gansu; its population is as small as that of a second-tier China citylike Wenzhou. So what is the secret to the innovative capability of this small country? The answer lies in the commitment to research and education based on commercial feasibility. For many years, Sweden has been a leader in the global markets in such areas as IT, mobile telecommunications, biological technology, automobile research, timber manufacturing and military technology. As a result, the two countries complement each other in many economic areas and trade, and have ample room for seeking further cooperation. But the most attractive aspect from the perspective of Chinese enterprises is what can be learned from Swedish firms in terms of their spirit of innovation and the capability to build a big brand. China’s silks, teas and porcelainwere sought-after products among Swedish consumers hundreds of years ago, but in many ways the roles today have been reversed. Is it possible for made-in-China products to be returned to the wish-lists of Swedish shoppers amid China’s untiring study and research? We’ll see.

October 2013

焦点瑞典

直通瑞典专访瑞典现任驻华大使罗睿德先生

作

为北欧最大的国家，瑞典与中国的合作关系近年来日益紧密。为此本

刊采访到瑞典驻华大使罗睿德（Lars Peter Frédén）先生，他与我们探讨了中瑞关系发展的新走向、新契机。问：就目前而言，瑞典是中国在北欧的最大贸易伙伴，而中国是瑞典在亚洲的最大贸易伙伴。未来将如何拓展关系？答：瑞典与中国一样也是全球供应链的一部分，所以十分注重自由贸易。自由贸易是中瑞两国未来关系发展的基础。对于贸易持续顺差的中国而言，实现经济再平衡甚为关键，因为这将推动贸易再平衡。中国的领导人希望能将重心从投资、出口转向国内消费，并将关注面从数量扩大到质量。为达成这一目标，我认为中国需要进一步放宽金融政策。此外市场准入也同样重要，这其中包括实现产业及产品标准的同质化。同样，随着中国服务等行业的不断发展，中瑞两国也可以在类似领域寻求进一步合作。双方另一个潜在的合作方向是中国对可持续城镇发展的需求以及清洁技术的应用，因为瑞典在该领域已拥有先进的经验和技术。问：中国目前正进行结构性改革，期间在保持经济高速增长方面遇到了挑战。对此瑞典将如何协助中国完成改革？答：中瑞两国可以就结构性改革的问题交换意见。中国的许多改革举措都曾被瑞典亲身实践过。例如在20世纪80年代我们曾放宽金融政策，到了90年代以后也曾将许多国企私有化。瑞典在减少二氧化碳排放方面也富有经验。我们乐于同中国分享这些经验，以助其完成结构性改革。另外，瑞典还制定了一套独特的医疗保健体系，在实现全民医保的同时提供更多私立罗睿德先生

October 2013

及公立解决方案。

SPOTLIGHT SWEDEN

Nordic connections Sweden, the largest country in northern Europe, has seen enhanced cooperation with China in recent years. Swedish Ambassador to China Lars Peter Frédén, spoke to CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW on the potential for further tie-ups.

Sweden is China’s largest trade partner among the Nordic countries while China is Sweden’s largest trade partner in Asia. In what ways can Sweden and China expand such ties in the future?

tainable urban development and the application of clean tech. This is an area where Sweden has advanced knowledge and technology to offer.

Sweden, just like China, is integrated in the global supply chain. Sweden has a strong commitment to free trade. Free trade is fundamental to the future development of our relationship. The rebalancing of the Chinese economy is important because it will lead to a rebalancing of trade, where China traditionally has had a surplus. China’s

policymakers want a shift from investment, export and quantity to a focus on domestic consumption and higher quality. In order to achieve this, I think China needs to further liberalize its financial regulations. Market access, on equal terms, is also important. Homogenization of industry and product standards is a part of this. This of course goes both ways. Moreover, there is room for increased cooperation and trade in sectors such as the service sector which is developing in China. Another area with potential development is the Chinese demand for sus-

问：众所周知，瑞典拥有全世界最先

各级部门的文件，也乐于向其他社会和文

问：能否谈谈您对中瑞经贸关系未来

进的医疗体系及技术。贵国将如何在中国

化学习。无论是过去还是未来，我们都将

推广相关的成功经验？

抵制保护主义，因为这对确保瑞典企业在

答：我的理解是，从长远来看中国

答：瑞典企业在提供医疗技术、护

国际市场上保持竞争力甚为关键。瑞典的

有意推进旨在加强社会安全网的改革。而

理及药品方面始终走在世界的前列。它们

多项产业多年来一直处于国际竞争的态势

在如何建立可持续性（无论是经济还是环

必然已准备好在需求旺盛、有利可图并拥

中，我国自然资源与人力资源的利用效率

境）的社会福利国家方面，瑞典方面经验

有公平环境的市场上开疆拓土，当然这也

也因此得到了提高。另外，在很大程度上

丰富。我们十分希望能同中国分享这些经

包括能够参与相关的政府采购。瑞典能在

教育也起了重要作用，推动我国企业的创

验，其中也包括失败的教训，因为从长远

管理和医疗技术方面提供符合中国需求的

新和竞争意识不断增强。

来看这将为两国带来益处。瑞典的解决方

有效解决方案。但只有在公平的竞争环境下，瑞典企业才能更好地拓展在华业务并进行投资。我希望更多私营企业能获许运营诊所，并成为公共金融体系的一部分。

China is facing challenges to keep the economy growing at a high rate through a period of structural reform. What role could Sweden play in facilitating China’s reform? Sweden and China can exchange views regarding structural reforms. Many of the reforms China is aiming at have already been tried and carried out in

走向的看法？

案通常侧重于可持续性及质量，这与中国问：未来中瑞两国还能在其他哪些现有领域寻求合作？

决策者所强调的长远规划不谋而合。从我们以往与中国企业接触的经历来看，对方

答：中瑞两国在创建安全、环保、高

往往更注重追求短期利益，有时缺乏可

效的交通体系方面已有过多次合作。我们

持续性。我的观点是，随着中国改革的持

问：尽管国土面积较小，但瑞典却拥

希望能协助中国发展可持续的交通体系，

续深入，对瑞典商品和服务的需求应会增

有众多国际大品牌（如宜家、H&M），能

当然这是一项长期的任务。另外双方还可

加。同时，作为世界工厂，中国制造商水

做到这一点关键的因素有哪些？

在清洁技术行业寻求后续合作，在采矿、

平也已在全球位居前列。只要瑞典经济持

答：瑞典是相对较小的国家，对自由

创意领域建立新联系来实现互惠互利。当

续发展，未来也可能扩大进口中国产品。

开放的贸易体系依赖程度较高。整个社会

然具有合作空间的领域还有很多，比如生

在可预见的未来，两国之间所有的双边贸

体系非常透明，比如我们可以自由地参阅

命科学等。

易和对外直接投资数据都可能得到增长。

October 2013

焦点瑞典

Sweden. For example, in the 1980s we liberalized our financial regulations and in the 1990s and onward we have privatized many of our SOEs. Sweden also has good experience in decoupling CO2 emissions from growth. Sweden is happy to share its experiences on its structural reforms with China. We have also developed the Swedish health-care system in order for it to better cater for private and public solutions while maintaining a general health insurance.

Sweden has some of the most advanced medical know-how in the world. How can Sweden export these capabilities to China? Swedish companies are at the forefront in providing medical technologies, care and drugs. The companies are, of course, ready to establish their business activities in markets where demand is high, profits can be made and where conditions allow them to compete on equal terms. This includes being able to take part in calls for public procurement. Sweden can provide efficient solutions in management and medical technologies that correspond to China’s needs. Conditions for these companies

October 2013

need to correspond to those applicable for Chinese companies in order for the Swedish companies to grow and invest in China. I hope that more private companies can be invited to run and operate clinics, also within a publicly financed system.

Considering Sweden’s size, what is the secret to establishing so many big brands (such as IKEA, H&M) in the global business world? Sweden is a relatively small country with high dependency on free and open trade. Transparency permeates Swedish society. This includes the openness to learn from other societies and cultures. It includes the freedom of sharing documents from all official sources, i.e. ministries, state agencies etc. Counteracting protectionism has been and still is important in order to ensure that Swedish companies maintain their competitiveness in a global context. Large parts of our industry have been subject to global competition for many years. This has fostered efficiency in using natural resources as well as manpower. Education on a wide scale has

also encouraged innovation and competitive businesses.

What other areas exist in which the two countries can seek cooperation in the future? Safe, green and efficient transportation is one area where Sweden and China already have much cooperation. We want to be China’s partner in its journey towards a sustainable transportation system, and this is a long term commitment. Life-science, I have already mentioned. We also see benefits in cooperating on mining, creative industries as well as continuing cooperation on clean tech, just to mention a few other areas.

What do you see as the future of bilatreral economic relations? My understanding is that China, in the long run, aims at introducing social reforms that strengthen social-safety nets. Building a welfare state in a sustainable fashion, is what Sweden has extensive experience in. We are eager to share this knowledge with China, including mistakes that we have made, because in the long-term we believe this will benefit both of us. Swedish solutions often focus on sustainability and quality. This is in line with Chinese decision-makers who stress the importance of long-term solutions. However, our experience from contacts with Chinese firms is that focus tends to be on short-term profits that sometimes lack in sustainability. My view is that the demand for Swedish goods and services should increase given that reforms are implemented. All bilateral trade and FDI (foreign direct investment) figures between our two counties are likely to grow in the foreseeable future.

consulting companies creating opportunities for small- and medium-sized specialist consulting businesses in the Nordic region. In two years, SwCG has quintupled its size with its business growing 60% in 2012. As a result, SwCG has opened a new office in Shanghai. Johan Danielsson, CEO of SwCG, spoke to CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW about their market entry to China.

奥尔森总经理

SwCG对中国咨询服务市场的发展状况持何种看法？贵公司在进驻中国市场方面拥有哪些主要优势？中国的咨询产业已在过去十年间日趋成熟，如今已不仅仅是欧美企业的下游外包市场。所以在我们看来中国的咨询产业在若干领域正逐步走向专业化，比如SharePoint和电子商务。SwCG意识到了在市场间递送服务的潜在作用—使顾客获得最佳的潜在解决方案，以及无地域限制的供应商。这意味着SwCG能提供国际化的咨询服务，即为欧洲客户提供中国市场咨询服务，或为中国客户提供欧洲市场咨询服务，而不仅限于本土服务。我们的目标是使世界变小，无处不在地为客户提供支持，以协助他们找到最佳的解决方案与供应商。我们的优势在于自身始终保持独立运营，且总是将客户的需求放在首位。SwCG在斯堪的纳维亚地区的业务已经十分成熟，所以有能力开疆拓土，往来于欧洲、中国之间提供解决方案。如今这一桥梁已搭建完毕，两地的供应商与

How does SwCG see the market for consulting services to develop in China? What are SwCG’s major advantages and challenges in market entry to China? The Chinese consulting industry has matured over the last decade and is now not only a low end outsourcing market for European and American companies. So we see a clear trend that the consultancy industries are becoming more specialized in certain fields, for instance SharePoint, and e-commerce. SwCG recognizes the potential to transfer competence between markets, in order to provide customers with the best possible solutions and suppliers independently of location. This means that SwCG can provide international consultancy services - a Chinese consultancy service to the European customer, as well as a European consultancy service to the Chinese customer, in addition to local consultancy services. Our goal is to make the world smaller, and support our customers wherever they are, to always find the best solution and supplier. Our advantage is that we are independent and will always put our customers’ needs and desires first. We are already well established in Scandinavia, and have the possibility to open up the market of solutions between Europe and China, and we have this bridge in place, so both suppliers and customers can

Swedish Consulting Group（简称“SwCG”）是发展最为迅速的管理咨询公司之一，旨在为北欧地区的中小型咨询机构缔造商机。短短两年时间，SwCG的扩张速度惊人，不仅自身规模扩大了四倍，顺利在上海安家落户，其2012年业绩增长更是达到60%。为此公司首席执行官Johan Danielsson就进驻中国市场一事接受了本刊采访。客户都能与当地代表取得联系，而我们将全程提供咨询服务。 SwCG的知识产品组合拥有哪些要素使其能在中国市场取得成功？您如何看待当今中国高端服务行业的环境？我们曾与斯堪的纳维亚地区的跨国公司有过多次合作，并逐步建立了一系列整套的供应商挖掘程序，从搜寻、查验到评估，完全以客户立场为基准。同样，我们也会研究客户的业务性质和采购要求，以制定出完全符合对方需求的解决方案。未来我们将一如既往地为客户提供智能解决方案和值得信赖的服务。SwCG的搜寻或评估程序是我们的制胜法宝，如今已带着它来到了中国。作为斯堪的纳维亚地区专业提供管理和IT咨询服务的企业，SwCG如何在中国推广相关的专业经验？ SwCG仍将在中国独立开展业务，评估模式不变，“以客户为中心”的宗旨也不会变。另外

work with their local representative while we set everything up and handle the transfer. What are the key features of SwCG’s knowledge portfolio that will bring success in the Chinese market? How would you describe the current high-end service sector environment in China? We will bring our long experience from working with global companies in Scandinavia, where we have established a method of finding, securing and evaluating for sourcing the right supplier with regards to the unique positions of our customers. We investigate our customers business and sourcing requirements to set-up a tailored solution just for them and we continuously meet suppliers in order to identify smart solutions and reliable services. Our search or evaluation process has been one of the key success factors, and we are now bringing this to the China market. Positioned as the leading provider of specialist management and IT consultants in Scandinavia, how can SwCG export its expertise to China? SwCG will continue to work according to our evaluation model, with independence and customer focus, and that is what we bring with us to China. We also bring the experience and supplier base that we have

我们还带来了在斯堪的纳维亚地区积累起来的经验和供应商资源。在与中国新合作方的共同努力下，这将成为我们取胜的关键。SwCG不仅评估供应商，也会对旗下雇员评估。因为他们始终将客户的需求和想法放在首位，是SwCG品牌形象的最佳代表，所以同样也是SwCG取得成功的关键。另外，我们还十分注重发展企业文化，以确保我们拥有充足的资源来提供最佳服务。 “大服务提供商”（MSP）的概念是指在未聘请咨询师的情况下根据客户要求发现并引荐最合适的供应商。为获得利益相关方青睐，SwCG 在中国建立了何种类型的合作网络？ SwCG将依据客户特定需求来物色供应商人选。这些人选可以来自我们现有的供应商网络，或来自其他渠道，前提是与客户的需求相符。我们通常会对新的供应商进行评估，以全面跟进对方状况，了解与客户相契合的解决方案和服务方案类型，以求物色到最理想的供应商，提供最佳潜在方案。

built up in Scandinavia, and that will together with our new partners in China become an even greater success factor. SwCG is not only evaluating suppliers, but also our employees. They are our key success factors. They work and represent SwCG in the best possible way, and always place customers needs and desires at first. Our company culture is important to us, and we sets great value in that we have the key resources to provide the best services. The concept of Master Service Provider, MSP, is interesting in the sense that it does not recruit its own consultants, but finds and procures the best suppliers based on customers’ requirements. What kind of partner network does SwCG have in China in order to reach key stakeholders? SwCG will tailor a supplier base to its customer, based on their requirements and needs. The suppliers could come from our existing supplier network of already approved suppliers but could also be completely new suppliers that are unique for the specific customer. We are always evaluating new suppliers in order to be prepared and informed of who is doing what and which solutions and services that could fit our customers, so that we can deliver the best possible solution from the most suitable supplier.

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

Swedish Consulting Group (SwCG) is one of the fastest growing management

焦点瑞典

快时尚成功之道瑞典服饰品牌披露在中国市场做大品牌的秘诀

随

着“快时尚”品牌在中国年轻消费群体中的日益走俏，瑞典服饰连锁

H&M也相应制定出了针对在华市场的拓展计划。为此本刊采访到H&M大中华区、新加坡及马来西亚总经理马格纳斯·奥尔森（Magnus Olsson），他与我们分享了在中国时尚领域做大品牌的重要秘诀。问：你们在决定进驻中国市场时，背后最大的动力是什么？答：我们时刻观察多个不同市场，但不会对外公开本身设立和拓展业务的策略，因为我们身处的市场竞争非常激烈。H&M在所有现有市场均存在成长的空间。2013年，中国和美国是H&M最大的拓展市场。H&M当时选择在中国开设门店，是看重中国巨大的消费潜力，但是开业6年多来中国市场依然在带给我们惊喜，中国城镇以及商业发展所蕴含的巨大潜力

快时尚品牌在年轻消费群体中日益走俏

让我们信心倍增。可持续性，维持盈利。问：从你的角度来看，H&M品牌在中国市场上的竞争优势有哪些？

创作不同顾客均觉得具有吸引力的时装，

与此同时，我们致力于使H&M品

即是设计要时刻走在前瞻，并要在基本款

牌下的产品更具多样性：在6年中推出

式、流行时尚和最新潮流之间取得平衡。

答：就H&M本身而言，我们的经营

了6个全新品牌— COS、Monki、

我们服饰具有的多样性意味着它们能够以

策略是基于我们的经营理念：以优惠的价

Weekday、Cheap Monday和H&M

不同方式进行搭配并在不同季节穿着—

格提供时尚和品质。H&M应始终在各个市

HOME。

从而延长了它们的生命周期，提高了可持续性。

场为顾客提供高品质的商品。可持续发展的重要性正与日俱增，H&M商品的关键要

问：H&M如何在“中国制造”的影

最重要的设计主题/系列，会在一段时

素之一就是为可持续发展观念逐渐提升的

响下仍使商品独具瑞典风格？又有何秘诀

间之前开始计划，而最新的潮流趋势，则

顾客提供更具可持续性的优质商品。因此

来迎合中国消费者的口味？

会以较短的时间予以融入。设计主题、色

可持续发展已经成为了H&M运营策略的重要组成部分。

答：H&M配货根据地域不同有20% 的差异，我们了解各地对文化和时尚的理

彩、用料、剪裁和服装类别，均会予以发展，以创作出新一季的服饰系列。

解不同，并将根据潮流的总体趋势进行设问：对H&M而言，成功拓展在华业务的关键因素是什么？

计，然后再由各部门对其进行修改，以满足特定顾客的需求。针对不同年龄层和风

问：您如何看待未来5年中国服饰零售市场的发展前景？

答：我们是一家环球时装零售企业，

格，我们也会有相应的调整，例如：当我

答：我们认为中国是非常具有潜力的

在欧洲、北美洲、南美洲、中东、亚洲和

们根据同一种潮流趋势针对Everyday 和

市场。如上所述，中国的消费者让我们一

非洲合共51个市场经营，H&M不断在新

Divided 两个系列的顾客进行诠释时，服

直对这个市场抱有很大的期望，并且我们

市场和现有市场发展，同时专注于质量和

饰的特点可能会有所不同。我们始终力求

的销售数据也令我们信心倍增。

October 2013

One channel to unlimited know-how

For Contacts in Europe:

For Contacts in China:

Johan Danielsson

Serena Wang

王洁纯

CEO

Managing Director - SwCG China

董事总经理

Swedish Consulting Group

瑞典咨询集团

Email: johan.danielsson@swcg.se

Email: serena.wang@swcg.se

邮箱：serena.wang@swcg.se

Office: +46 10 516 28 10

Office: +86 21 61035790

电话：+86 21 61035790

Mobile: + 46 734 303 800

Mobile: +86 18611106498

手机：+86 18611106498

Address: Room 2605, No. 283,

地址: 中国上海市黄埔区淮海中路283

South Tower, Hong Kong Plaza, Huai

号26楼2605室香港广场南座

Hai Middle Road, Huang Pu District, Shanghai, P.R.C.

SPOTLIGHT SWEDEN

The future of fashion As â&#x20AC;&#x153;fast fashionâ&#x20AC;? gains traction among young Chinese consumers, Swedish clothing chain H&M has found a way to expand in the China market. Magnus Olsson, the country manager of H&M Greater China, Singapore and Malaysia, spoke to CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW on the key factors of running a successful fashion business in China.

When H&M decided to enter the China market, what was the biggest drive behind this move? We always keep an eye on different markets, but we will not declare our strategies in establishing and expanding our business, because the markets we involved in are highly competitive. There is room for H&M to grow in all existing markets. In 2013, China and the US are our biggest growing markets. When H&M decided to open stores in China, we were attracted by the huge consumption potential here. Now it has been more than six years, the Chinese market still gives us surprises, and we are very confident about the business growing potential in Chinese cities and towns.

From your perspective, what are the strengths of H&M to do business in China? As for H&M, our business strategy is based on our principle: to offer fashion and quality at the best price. H&M will always provide customers with high quality products in all markets. Since the importance of sustainability increases every day, one of our major tasks is to provide more sustainable and quality products to customers with increasing awareness of sustainability. Therefore, sustainability has already become a very important part of our operational strategy.

October 2013

What is the key to success for H&M to expand operations in China? H&M is a global fashion retailer. We do business in 51 markets in Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East, Asia and Africa. H&M keeps growing in new and existing markets, and in the meantime, we focus on quality, sustainability and profitability. At the same time, we are dedicated to diversifying our products: We launched six new brands in six years, they are COS, Monki, Weekday, Cheap Monday and H&M Home.

How could H&M remain Swedish when its clothes are made in China? What is your strategy to customize to Chinese tastes? Our product distribution varies by

regions (about 20%) due to cultural differences and different perceptions of fashion in different regions. We design our products based on the overall fashion trends, then our products are modified by each division to meet the specific customer needs. For different ages and styles, we may adopt different approaches based on the same fashion trend. We aim to design garments which look attractive to all of our customers. Our designs must be forward-looking, but we also have to achieve balance between basic styles, fashions and the latest trends. We offer diversified clothing which enables our customers to match them freely and wear them in all seasons. As for the most important design theme/collections, we start planning some time earlier, while the latest trends will be incorporated into our products within a short time. The design theme, color, fabric, cutting and type of clothing will be taken into consideration to create the new collection for the coming season.

How do you see the retail clothing market developing in China during the next five years? We regard China as a high potential market. As mentioned above, we have great confidence in Chinese consumers and our sales figures also boost our confidence.

etting up business in China is increasingly tempting and it seems easier than last decade. That is, after finding the right partner and opening a fancy office, the tremendous market is all yours. Clients queue up. Not quite. As by the law of natural selection, many businesses fail, while some prosper. Why? Eva Henriksson, Owner of Henriksson Consulting in Hong Kong, says that several mistakes are usually done in the initial stages of market entry to China due to lack of communication, cultural clashes and language problems resulting in lack of trust. “We have a tendency to neglect the seemingly small parts – often explained as “necessary costs” – such as having the right staff or reflecting how co-operation between people in an organization works or doesn’t work”. Further, foreign companies have a tendency to send their managers to Asia with short term contracts of 3 years resulting in high level of staff rotation and lack of stable management culture, she admits. Interestingly, companies seem to be quite naïve sometimes and believe only what they see and hear without a proper knowledge about how things are run in China. “Take staff for example. What are the motivators? How about values, do you think they share yours? Lack of understanding how to recruit the right people, lack of cultural awareness and lack of leadership adjusted to the business environment create problems,” Henriksson lists. Too often, top executive skills and education obtained back home ends up in inefficiencies in the Chinese business context, in which social dynamics and management tradition are truly unique.

After more than 30 years of handson consulting and work experience in Nordic corporations, Henriksson has witnessed the bottleneck in leadership and people-skills required for a successful market entry to China and Hong Kong. Accordingly, since 2005, Henriksson Consulting has specialized in creating people-centered development strategies by offering organization evaluation, executive search, HR management, leadership training and coaching, and cultural understanding. “We want companies to succeed over time, to create a sustainable growth model that recognizes people as the key makers of success. We want to empower the people giving face to this success by developing leadership in practice, not on paper. Creating respect and team spirit means making the people around you to grow with you, together,” she says. As a result, Henriksson Consulting has come up with a new way of learning leadership with cross cultural workshops smoothing the process of building trust, mutual understanding and avoiding miscommunication. That is, overcoming cultural barriers and creating social synergies between cultures and ways of communication. “A company working smoothly between borders, countries, cultures and departments is not only strong internally, but externally adapted to sense and read the market in time and react accordingly. Particularly, this is the case in China due to the market size and social structures, guanxi, connections,” Henriksson says. Henriksson Consulting, evidently, is on the right track in exporting Swedish people-skills to China, not only due to current reform of the economy

highlighting the service sector, but also due to China’s urgent need for developing its own innovation sector. This means that China needs increasingly deeper – and smoother – cooperation with foreign firms. When China gradually opens for Western inflow of capital, human capital becomes the key success factor. Henriksson Consulting has known this for decades and thus warmly welcomes management teams industry wide to learn and grow with them in Asia. “By combining our experience from global business with local networks, we deliver an added value service offering great business opportunities for companies considering going global. Time has changed; success is no more the product in our hand, it is also how we use the hand and learn to lead – hand in hand.”

Eva Henriksson Owner of Henriksson Consulting Limited Email: eva@henrikssonconsulting.com Phone: +852 2914 0959

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

The neglected factors – people-centered growth strategies from Scandinavia

REPORT

Dirty laundry on show The puzzle over the administration’s campaign against corruption is deepening, with various moves and non-moves making it hard to ﬁgure out precisely what’s going on

here is little escape for those in China being investigated for “serious violation of disci-

pline.” This ambiguous one sentence message from the Ministry of Supervision has sealed the fate of several senior executives and high-flying officials since the end of August. The net has trapped both “tigers” and “flies” – Chinese President Xi Jinping’s reference to high and low-level figures accused of corruption. All of them are connected to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the largest oil firm in the country. Barely a few hours had passed from the conclusion of the Bo Xilai trial before the first of these investigations was announced. Over the following week the tale has grown from simple talk of rooting out corruption to speculation of a full-on political purge. So what exactly is happening, and what does it all mean? It’s not exactly clear. Politically, the implications won’t be apparent for quite some time. For investors looking at the China market, however, there is plenty of interest.

Taking aim No big game hunter’s trophy wall is complete without the mounted head of a powerful beast. The stand-out catch so far by the anti-corruption watchdog is Jiang Jiemin, who was dismissed from his

October 2013

post as the head of the central government body that oversees the biggest state-backed enterprises. Until March this year he chaired CNPC. He is reportedly being probed for corruption linked to services contracts for a major Chinese oilfield he supervised in the late 1980s. Yet his biggest crime could have been his association to former CNPC general manager Zhou Yongkang, under whose patronage he rose to prominence. Zhou is a big name and a bigger target. The former Sichuan province party boss and head of the Ministry of Public Security, who in 2007 was elevated to the top as a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, is under pressure thanks to his spirited

defense of political outcast Bo Xilai. “Zhou is the tiger in the cross-hair; rounding up associates is standard police procedure,” energy analyst Yu Luban with Jefferies in Hong Kong wrote in a note.

Hints of reform A political shakeout at the top of stateowned enterprises (SOEs) could be a blessing. Putting pressure on these giants to reform would make them more efficient and therefore more productive for the economy. They don’t come much bigger than CNPC. The leviathan of the oil industry employs over 1.6 million people in China and reported revenue of US$408.63 billion in 2012, ranking

fifth on the 2013 Fortune 500 list. It produces the bulk of domestic crude and refined oil products. It is not necessarily a lack of political will that is the biggest obstacle to moving forward on this front. Beijing and the World Bank co-authored a report published in 2012 citing the need to rein in the reach of these enterprises. The ability to push them through is. Although there are fewer SOEs today than in the early 1990s when privatization was first enacted, those that survive have amassed strong political leverage that they use to block reforms. Clearing out the stalwarts of SOE influence such as Zhou and Jiang could be a sign the government finally has the political capital to mount big changes. “If he succeeds in bringing down Zhou, President Xi would show that no opponent, regardless of rank, is safe. His unfettered ability to defeat his enemies will boost Xi’s capacity to execute his policies,” Arthur Kroeber, managing director of research firm GaveKalDragonomics, wrote in a note. Taking on the energy industry, one of the most protected state-controlled fields, also sends a broader signal. “The fact that the central government is willing to really shake a big strategic state-owned enterprise seems very promising in terms of the outlook for SOE reform,” Wei Yao, senior economist at SocieteGenerale in Hong Kong, told China Economic Review.

management and external monitoring by the state will likely be strengthened, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, told China Economic Review. Unleashing the true potential of the assets that these lumbering giants sit on is a tantalizing prospect. Energy majors control vast oil and gas reserves, while telecoms firms operate huge communications networks. Statebacked lenders are the custodians of significant funds. Better management could improve how these resources are utilized. The anti-corruption focus may lift efficiency and return on equity at the

largest state-controlled firms, Nomura analyst Wendy Liu wrote in a note. She called for investors to “accumulate the big SOE machines on any weakness” as their share prices could get a boost. Nevertheless, it is unclear at this stage to what extent the anti-corruption campaign will facilitate SOE reform. Progress on previous pledges has been limited so far. The subject is sensitive and should be viewed as a longer-term game, Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered, said in a report. “We think of SOE reform as a Darwinian process rather than something to be prescribed in a document or tackled head-on.”

Proceed with caution Industry shakeouts create opportunities as well as turbulence. SOEs could become more transparent in their operations as internal

October 2013

REPORT

Knock-on effects The pressures for reform of China’s ﬁnancial system are coming from all directions. But changes by one set of regulators could have unitended consequences for another.

egulators pull down one reform lever in their great command center in Beijing and five other levers spring up down the corridor. With several different policy-writing departments manning the controls of China’s rebalancing and opening, progress in one office can result in problems in another. When the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) tightened the spigot of cash to interbank market in June, it was signaling to banks that had grown accustomed to easy cash that times are changing. The clampdown drove up the rates at which banks lend to each other to record highs and pushed a few ill-prepared lenders close to the wall. Normally emotionless officials at

October 2013

the central bank probably allowed themselves a pat on the back for sending a clear message on their newfound distaste for shadow lending, which bodes well for the creation of a stronger domestic banking sector. Meanwhile, the suits at another top decision-maker, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), must have been pulling their hair out. The securities regulator is trying to stabilize and clean up a securities market beset by irregularities and fraud. It has suspended new IPOs for nearly a year while it mulls over how best develop the sector it oversees. The liquidity squeeze wasn’t exactly helpful. Investors got spooked and the Shanghai Stock Exchange experienced

major volatility on June 25, eliciting editorials in Chinese financial rags saying the country’s securities markets were still not ready for new listings. The incident illustrated the potential knock on effect of reforms in one department on those in another. That’s why the order in which government agencies enact reform – not just the policy itself – has garnered increased attention in recent months. Is it inward-looking changes followed by more global integration? The other way around? Or everything at once? First, split China’s ongoing reform efforts down the middle. On one side there is domestic rebalancing, such as breaking down direct state involvement in the economy. On the other

side there is opening financial markets to the world, of which the final goal is full convertibility of the renminbi. Regulators are pursuing both tracks simultaneously, albeit with a slow gait. On July 22, the PBoC scrapped the floor on lending rates. While not as far reaching as analysts say is required, the move hinted that more substantial changes are in the works for domestic rebalancing. The State Council also announced that month that it would allow for the establishment of fully private banks. At the same time, the CSRC is opening the flood gate on foreign investment. In early July, the regulator nearly doubled the quota for foreign investors in mainland assets. The same day, the regulator expanded a program that lets foreign investors recirculate yuan into China to invest in stocks and bonds to London, Singapore and Taiwan. Analysts are generally supportive of this brand of concurrent reform – the kind that allows more foreign investors into China’s capital markets while the nature of those markets are themselves shifting. That’s not to say there isn’t a high level of risk associated with the effect that one could have on the other, namely the pressure that opening to the outside world could apply to reform on the domestic front. But exposure to the global market could very well be a driving force for pushing through changes at home that help sustain the momentum behind economic growth. “I think, in some sense, this is exactly the purpose of opening up the capital account: To introduce some

external competition and put pressure on domestic institutions, to change their behavior,” said Ding Shuang, senior China economist at Citi Investment Research. There are already examples of this happening. Ding notes that China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 put pressure on financial regulators to speed up reform. In many ways, the problems that China is facing in the domestic financial sector are a result of a closed capital account. Chinese businesses and investors lack access to capital and decent investment opportunities at home. Heavy restrictions on investment abroad have pushed cash into risky domestic investments in coal and the housing market. This in turn has led to bubbles and bad debt. Small and medium businesses struggle to get loans from banks and have little access to capital markets abroad. That has sent businesspeople

into shady lending houses, fueling a huge shadow banking market. Regulators need to weigh the risk of international exposure with the benefits. China’s debt market is in dire need for reform. Giving global investors access to this market is essential in effectively pricing credit risk and would fast-track change, HSBC argued in a report this week. That said, if foreign capital pours into the debt market without allaround financial stability, the country could experience a quick outflow in the event of global market turmoil. It is these dilemmas that can make Beijing appear to chase its tail as it deepens reform. HSBC says full liberalization of the yuan could happen within three to five years from now. The timeframe sounds about right. But the question for regulators isn’t when to arrive at the final destination; it is which direction to walk in to get there.

October 2013

话题

从国富到民富重新审视反思国家之手在民间经济的隐形作用文 | 徐瑾《中国经济怎么了》作者

对

于一个政府习惯掌控一切的转型中国家而言，详细区分国家财富与民

众财富或将成为当下我们不能回避的考验之一。 “劳动报酬优厚，是国民财富增进的必然结果，同时又是国民财富增进的自然征候。反之，贫穷劳动者生活维持费不足，是社会停滞不进的征候，而劳动者处于饥饿状态，乃是社会急速退步的征侯。”两百多年前，苏格兰人亚当·斯密在比较各国资本主义发展的趋势之后，写下了如是结论。其中，斯密尤其注意到当时的中国一向是“世界上最富的国家”：土地最肥沃、耕作最精细、人民最多而且最勤勉。与国家的富庶形成对照的是民众尤其是下层民众的窘迫境况，这让斯密大为咋舌，耕作者终日劳作，所得报酬若够购买少量稻米，也就觉得满足。技工的处境就更恶

民富为先、民生为本、民企为重

劣。欧洲技工总是无所事事地在自己工场

内等候顾客，中国技工却是随身携带器

对于如何拓展国民财富，不同的学者却有

具。为搜寻，或者说为乞求工作，而不断

着不同的见地。

时至今日，实现民间经济利益集团的权益与形成，要点或许仍旧有赖于收入的

在街市东奔西走。中国下层人民的贫困

王一江教授则在《民富论》中提出

再度分配。比较各国财富积累状况之后，

程度，远远超过欧洲最贫乏国民的贫困

了新的答案。相较美国、日本、印度等国

斯密当年即断言资本与收入的比例影响着

程度。

现代化的进程，中国告别了斯密的年代。

生产率，也就是劳动者勤劳与游惰的比

最富裕的国家与最贫困的民众这一

随后从19世纪以来一蹶不振。今天，虽然

例：“资本占优势的地方，多勤劳；收入

截然鸿沟是如何形成的？受限于当时的环

国家昂然迈入经济体第二，但人均收入仍

占优势的地方，多游惰。资本的增减，自

境，未曾亲临中国的亚当·斯密无法得出

旧与日本有天壤之别。中国过去的落后症

然会增减真实劳动量，增减生产性劳动者

直接答案。众多远东旅行家自相矛盾的报

结为何？国富民穷的怪圈缘何？王一江认

的人数。因而，增减一国土地和劳动的年

告与欧洲社会学者莫衷一是的结论，并不

为，中国真正的不幸在于，一个强大的民

产物的交换价值，增减一国人民的真实财

能使他信服。但他推测“也许在马哥孛罗

间经济利益集团始终未能形成，并成为19

富与收入。”

时代之前好久，中国的财富就已完全达到

世纪中国变革图强的主要动力。与之对应

产出的交换价值如何实现？其中无

了该国法律制度所允许的发展程度”。

的是。美国等后起之秀崛起的秘诀在于，

疑需要给予民间经济正向激励，这或许正

当时，究竟是什么制度限制了中国国

在追求财富的过程中，工业资产阶级超越

是中国改革三十年来的正确之处。孙中山

民财富的进一步发展？这或许是著名“李

其他利益集团，成为强者和胜者，然后按

先生曾经提出民族主义、民权主义和民生

约瑟之谜”的另外一个版本，吸引无数人

照自己的游戏规则，将全民族追求财富经

主义构成的“三民主义”百余年来不乏追

士竞技纵横，或指点江山，或身体力行。

久不息的巨大冲动，纳入了符合自身利益

随者。新近王一江强调民富为先、民生为

直到今天，始终也不存在唯一的答案，但

的法律和秩序的轨道中。

本、民企为重，有人称其为“新三民主

October 2013

义”也颇为切题。比起孙中山的三民主

学科地位，独立门户。

义，王一江的“新三民主义”重新审视反思了国家之手在民间经济的隐形作用。

经过两百多年之后，今天的中国又经历了

然而，现实状况中的国家往往同时具

盛世、衰败、积弱、战乱、人祸、封闭、

备多重面具。对于同时有三只手的国家，

复兴，而相同的“国富民穷”循环似乎并

国家与经济的彼此嵌入关系，一直

其政策自然难以避免陷入与民争利的困境

未远去，曾经的停滞状态也许并不是往日

在王一江的研究谱系中占据重要位置。在

之中。如何寻求更好的机制设计来平衡，

梦魇。

他看来，国家也是市场经济的一分子，在

或许是解决问题的重要思路。在比较分析

身居一个素有严格私有产权意识的国

具备经济人理性的同时，还是一个强制性

法治之利与民主之弊后，王一江尤其强调

家，斯密虽然明确指出政治经济学的两个

机构。这就构成了国家在经济活动中的多

现代国家制度注重在制度内部找到制衡，

目的在于富国裕民，但并未详细区分国家

重性：无为之手、扶持之手和掠夺之。

作为基本手段的法治、民主和分权三者缺

财富与民众财富，两者之间或明或暗的冲

“如果国家仅是无为之手，它越小越好。

一不可。如何防止国家成为掠夺之手，并

突与矛盾，并没有足以强大到引起这位经

如果国家仅是扶持之手，它越强大越好。

防范由此造成的经济损失和社会动荡，成

济学鼻祖的过分重视。

如果国家仅是掠夺之手，对它的限制越多

为国家制度建设的一个核心问题。

越好。”

对于一个政府习惯掌控一切的转型

关于中国，尽管当时的中国富夸天

中国家而言，这一问题却成为当下我们不

回到开篇，当年斯密所写的著作即

下，民众耐劳，然而斯密也洞察到中国陷

能回避的考验之一，从国富到民富的第一

是创造了经济学历史的《国富论》这本专

入了一种停滞的“静止状态”。当时的旅

原则，或许就在于国家从“三只手”回归

著的全名为“国民财富的性质和原因的研

行家关于中国耕作、勤劳及人口稠密状况

到“看不见的手”。

究”。从此，“看不见的手”一词进入流

的报告，与五百年前考察中国的马哥孛罗

通领域，而经济学告别了作为政治学附属

的记述比较，几乎没有什么区别。历史再

（本文内容摘自上海三联版《中国经济怎么了》）

期盼中国资金美国密西根州长来华进行推广活动

美

国密西根州州长里克·斯奈德于

了密西根州作为国家科技领导者的重要

9月5日在上海召开新闻发布会，

地位。”

开启十天的中国之行。访华期间，斯奈

“我们已经吸引了来自上汽集团、

德州长与密西根州政府官员、商界和旅

中国第一汽车集团公司、长安、吉利的

游局高层共同推广密西根州作为旅游或

投资，我们也非常期待更多中国汽车制

海外商业发展的理想之地。

造公司来密西根州投资发展。”斯奈德

斯奈德州长表示：“你能感受到密

表示，“在密西根州，我们很高兴能与

西根的热情好客，并能在全世界最先进

许多中国的汽车零部件供应商进行合作。”

的科技创新中心找到巨大的企业发展价值及机遇。”

密西根州议会大厦

密西根州作为全球汽车研发中心拥有超过375家汽车研发中心的工厂，其中

他提到，底特律市正在面临艰难的转型过程，但是它的未来一定充满活力

专利署注册的创纪录的专利项目，与州

有120家是外资。密西根州在汽车及零

和生机。“越来越多的新兴产业及青年

内工程技术人才的技术革新以及密西根

部件制造方面位于全美第一，州内拥有

才俊涌向底特律，整个城市正在见证一

州内的大学同IT公司间的紧密合作密不

12个组装厂，生产并组装超过全国20%

个惊人和积极的转型。”

可分。”斯奈德州长说道，“你也许不

的汽车和轻型卡车。州内拥有1526个工

“许多人都知道密西根汽车行业的

知道底特律市是除了首都华盛顿特区外

具、模具机构，这个数量也在全美位居

领先地位，却并不知道密西根州在美国

全美唯一的一处专利办公室，这也证明

首位。

October 2013

看中国

看电视中国观众热衷于收看电视节目的缘由耐人寻味文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

电

晏格文

视可真是强大的

视剧，如今的制作水准自然是远高于20世

的选择。你可以在网上收看全世界各地的

工具。即使是在

纪80年代或90年代。

电视和电影，形式应有尽有，水准则参差

互联网进入中国百姓生活

然而就电视剧情而言，问题依然存

不齐。你也可以玩游戏，看书，读大学网

的十年之后，电视机仍是

在。由于我从不观看中国的电视剧，不了

络课程，与朋友聊天，打发时间，自娱自

大部分家庭最重要的娱乐

解剧中角色和情节，自然是无权做出具体

乐，或是做些有意义的事—一切由你把

工具。电视里播放的节目

的评论。但在我看来，所有频道播放的剧

控。但中国的电视观众，尽管选择十分有

也依然是中国老百姓获取

集似乎都是一副模样（比如清宫剧），风

限，仍十分热衷于收看电视节目，其中的

信息、娱乐，了解各种观

格和形式显得不够宽泛。于是我就这一现

缘由耐人寻味。

点及见解的主要途径。

象请教了一位中国朋友，想了解为何中国

但我通常不看电视，而是一直使用手

老百姓要花费如此多的时间追剧。

提电脑。这两种工具都有屏幕，但最主要

“最近我和我的邻居也一直在谈论

的差别在于电视观众与电视的互动非常有

电视剧本的问题，我们都有些担心。”他

限，而电脑与人却可以实现积极的互动。

说道。

换言之，电视控制着你，而电脑却可以被你控制。当然在某些特定场合下（比如做客或

百姓是不是已渐渐不再看电视，而是改用电脑了呢？ “大多数中国人晚上都在看电视吧，应该不比以前少。”他告诉我。

这么看来，问题似乎出在了剧本质

此外，尽管年轻人可能会花费更多时

量、情节、角色以及故事背后的道德伦

间上网，但通常都在一个房间里，或是靠

理上。

近电视机，所以也能被动接收到背后大屏

在公共场所），我也会看一会儿电视。所

“我们担心的是这类电视剧对年轻一

以对于中国电视节目的整体状况不能说没

代的价值观影响会有多大。一打开电视，

这一现象能否给我们带来新的启示

有了解。1981年，我在北京通过黑白电视

只能看到一些差劲的电视剧和一些无聊的

呢？在我看来，一个人的言行及观念所受

收看了审判“四人帮”的片段。而今我也

娱乐节目。拜金主义越来越严重，这让中

的影响主要来自家庭。如果父母能注重这

看过几次“中国好声音”，其中一次是为

国人做生意没有底线，因为金钱至上，所

方面的教育，那么孩子受外在环境的影响

我的朋友加油（可惜最后他被淘汰了）。

以我们才有严重的质量问题，因为可以带

就会小很多。而一个拥有明晰价值观与是

来利润。”他补充道。

非观，并对电视节目抱客观态度的孩子，

电视剧对老百姓的生活影响尤其大，当然这在全世界都是如此。近几周，美国

相比之下，互联网给我们带来了更多

观众正沉溺于观看《绝命毒师》剧集的最后一季，似乎一切都已停止，只剩下它了。在今天，美国热播的电视剧通常都有这样一个特征：剧本质量、表演以及制作水准在很多情况下都胜过电影。所以大批好莱坞一线影星转而接拍电视剧也就不奇怪了。当然，欧美国家的电视剧烂片也不少，并非全是佳作，但其风格和内容非常多样，给予观众的选择也就更广。与过去相比，现今中国的电视节目在总体形式上已更加 “国际化”，各方面都表现得更为成熟。新闻播报员还穿上了西服。同样是国营电视台播放的纪录片与电

于是我又问这位朋友，目前中国的老

October 2013

互联网给我们带来了更多的选择

幕播放的内容。

未来也能在激烈的社会竞争中占据优势。

LOOKING AT CHINA

The trouble with television Television still dominates the lives of most Chinese people in spite of the explosion of internet usage. But are people happy with it? By Graham Earnshaw

elevision is an enormously powerful tool. A decade after the internet really became established in the lives of ordinary China people, the television set remains the center of almost all homes in this country. And the programs that are broadcast through the televisions remain a crucial part of the lives of Chinese people, providing information, entertainment, opinions, perspectives and prejudices. Normally, I don’t watch television. I use a laptop computer all the time. Both devices have a screen, but the crucial difference is that a television viewers relationship to the device is fundamenetally passive, while the person at the computer is active. You control the computer, the television controls you. Occasionally, I get to watch some television, in people’s houses, in public places, and so I do have a sense of the overall nature of Chinese TV. I watched excerpts from the Gang of Four trial in 1981 in Beijing. I have seen the talent show The Voice several times, once including a friend of mine (he lost). The television dramas particularly have a big impact on people’s lives, and this is true around the world. Top American TV shows today are in many cases superior to movies. That is why so many Hollywood stars are now to be found acting in TV dramas.

Overall the format of Chinese TV today is slicker, more “international” than in the past. The news readers now wear western suits. The production quality of the documentaries and television dramas shown on Chinese state television channels is of course dramatically in advance of what was available in the 1980s, or the 1990s. But in terms of content, there are questions. I cannot comment on the individual TV dramas because I don’t watch them, But I do sense there is a homogenous feel to all the content on all the channels. All the Qing dynasty costume dramas look much the same, for instance. So I asked a Chinese friend for his comments on the TV dramas that absorb so much of the time of China’s people. “Recently, I have been discussing the problem of the scripts of TV dramas with my neighbors,” he said. “We are concerned.” The problem seems to be the quality of the story telling, the plots, the characters and the moral underpinnings of the story. “We are concerned about how these TV dramas will impact on the sense of values of the younger generation,” my friend added. “You turn on the TV and all you get are poor TV dramas and meaningless variety shows. The worship of money is becoming more and more of a problem, which means increasingly there is no bottom line

for Chinese people in doing business. Money being above all else results in the product quality we face because lower quality provides higher profits.” The internet, of course, offers a huge range of alternatives. You can stream TV shows and movies from around the world, you can play games, read books, take classes, chat with friends, waste your time – the choice is yours. But TV viewers in China, in spite of the limited choices seem to be puzzlingly loyal to the medium. I asked my friend if there is a trend towards less TV watching, more use of computers amongst ordinary Chinese people. “The vast majority of Chinese people watch television in the evenings,” he said. “No less than before, I would say.” And while young people may go online more, they tend to be in a room with, or close to, a television set, and therefore have a semi-conscious awareness of what is going on, on the small screen. What is the positive lesson to draw from this? My view is that the family is the heart and the core of a person’s charge and sense of values. If parents focus on that in their own family unit, then the external influences have dramatically less impact. And kids who grow up with a clear and strong sense of values, and a healthy disregard for television, will be in a strong position in the great competition of life.

October 2013

西游记

乡村尼姑晏格文（Graham Earnshaw）生于英国，现居上海。他以上一次落脚点为起点，行程从上海一路向西，横贯中国。本月，他已行至云阳县的老城附近。文 | 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw )

我

缓步向眼前的这座小镇走去，三峡

关系。”另一名尼姑一边打扫一边向我解

水库的支流已被我渐渐遗落在身

释。

广，旨在鼓励当地人前来拜佛。当地人对于我向尼姑提出的问题颇感

后。此时我发现屋舍旁的道路上有两人正

在中国农村，乱扔垃圾的现象十分

好奇，其中有几位还一路随我走进了集市

在清扫垃圾，还时不时将废纸片捡起倒入

普遍，无论是道路，山坡，河流均随处可

巷子。在帆布雨篷的遮盖下，道路两旁的

垃圾桶中。这一幕让我颇为吃惊，要知道

见生活垃圾。塑料袋、腐食、旧衣物、生

小商店和货摊显得极为簇拥，货架上更是

在中国的农村类似场景实在少见。

理盐水瓶……有时甚至会被丢弃在村民的

堆满了各类商品，有袋装食品、鸡蛋、简

两名打扫的女子削平头，身穿黄褐

家门口，而这么做的后果似乎无人了解。

式衣鞋、厨具、叮满蝇虫的熟肉，以及最

色裤袍，外加白袜白手套，显然是尼姑身

为何我在中国农村见到的第一拨“环保卫

受中国农村妇女青睐的用品—发饰。一

份。为了清理干净，她们忙得不亦乐乎，

士”却是尼姑？对此我由衷地希望，中国

路上还能看见不少年幼的孩子跨坐在妈妈

但旁人却视若无睹。这不禁让我感到诧

人以后能不再需要通过信教来增强环保意

或祖母背后的柳条篮中，而我身旁一个年

异，于是便上前向她们询问缘由。

识。

轻人正叼着香烟，将手中的玩具手枪对准

“能帮助别人就是好的。”其中一位答道。 “难道捡垃圾不应该是大家一起做吗？为什么必须是你们呢？”我很不解。 “这是我们的荣幸，其实谁做都没有

一路向前，才发现那处由尼姑们精

了前方的一只小鸟。

心打扫的地块是一条老街的入口，旁边还

我在集市中央逗留了片刻，此时一些

紧挨着一座寺庙，过去这里是下山的必经

路人围了过来，想要和我聊几句。他们的

之途，而今非水路不能成行。如此看来，

问题大多和“我是谁”以及“要去哪里”

尼姑们清扫街道的行为也算是一种线下推

相关，而我则更关心他们的生活状况，得到的答案却是贫苦二字。我特意拿起手中的相机为其中一个笑容满面的男子拍了张照，他的衣服虽不太整洁，却颇感合体。但这一行为却遭来一名妇女的斥责，对方身穿一件仿皮衣，时髦的衣着倒与这小村镇有些格格不入。 “我的衣服也没多整洁。”我一边解释，一边指着身上微微磨破的牛仔裤和脏兮兮的衬衫。“但你却是这里最时髦的人，衣服很漂亮。”我对她赞许有加。顷刻间她也笑了。我随一对中年夫妇走出了集市，通过他们我了解到这座村镇已有2000年的历史，是目前云阳县仅存的老城中心，其他城区则早已被淹没。

October 2013

T R AV E L J O U R N A L

“我们住的地方已在水位之上，所以很幸运不用搬迁。其他村镇的人都不得不搬到新城区。”妻子开了口。在晨雾缭绕的山间，能拥有一方平原实在难得，或许这正是她欣慰的原因吧。我正回味着这份幸运，不想一个转身却来到了水泥厂，这可是中国农村环境污染的罪魁祸首。顷刻间空气也跟着污浊起来，我只好加快了脚步，好让自己的鼻子少遭些罪。 “忠于祖国，为军队建设贡献青春”—一间农舍墙上的标语这样写着。此时道路开始盘旋向上，向身后望去，还能看见三四条平行的岔道呈“之”字向山间蔓延。我颇为艰难地向上爬坡，身边路过的摩托车手表示能“免费”载我一程，被我婉拒了。“生男生女都一样”、“人口质量乃重中之重”—另外两条标语这样写着。一路走来，金灿灿的油菜地让人陶醉不已，油菜花虽未盛开，却见一家人忙着收割，应是想赶早儿卖个好价钱。他们四五人围在一起，正协力采摘打捆农作物，不远处便是放牧的牛群，正悠闲地咀嚼着野花的芬芳。这一家人有说有笑地干着农活，连牛儿们似乎也很高兴。我不禁驻足片刻，想感受这丰收的喜悦，却发现其中更多的是宁静。

Picking up the trash Graham Earnshaw was born in England and has been walking west from Shanghai across China since 2004, always starting each trip from exactly the last place he stopped. This month, we ﬁnd him near Yunyang. By Graham Earnshaw

was approaching a little town with an offshoot of the Yangtze reservoir below me, when I saw something that I had never before seen in rural China, a sight that was truly shocking in its uniqueness. Beside the road,

next to some houses, were two people with brushes, sweeping up the garbage! They were picking up bits of paper and putting them in a trash can!! They were Buddhist nuns, dressed in orange trousered robes, white socks

and gloves, with shaven heads. As they busied themselves with basic tidying work, about a dozen ordinary people sat or stood around nearby ignoring them. I asked the nuns why they were picking up the garbage. It was that

October 2013

T R AV E L J O U R N A L

extraordinary a sight. “It is good to help people,” said one. “But shouldn’t everyone pick up the garbage?” I asked. “Why do you have to do it?” “It doesn’t matter who does it, as long as someone does. It is our honor,” said the other nun, never stopping her sweeping as she talked. The garbage situation in rural China was dire. Roadsides, hillsides and streams across the country were covered in the detritus of modern life. Plastic bags, rotting food, old clothes, saline drop bottles – sometimes dumped right next to the houses where people lived without any apparent thought to the consequences. Why was it that the first people I had seen actually fighting this tide of multi-colored

October 2013

shit were two Buddhist nuns? I fervently hope that Chinese people do not need to get religion before they decide to pick up the garbage. The small space by the road being tended by the nuns turned out to be the entrance to an old market street, and it was also close to a temple, which used to a walk down the hill and up the other side, but was now accessible only by boat. The nuns clean-up was in fact a below the line promo activity to encourage the local people to become supporters of, and visitors to, the temple. The local people were curious about my questions to the nuns, and several of them followed me as I walked into the narrow alleyway, with tarpaulins overhead, little shops and stalls press-

ing in both sides, stocked with plastic packed foods, eggs, simple clothing and footwear, kitchen implements, slabs of fly-enhanced meat and what may be the best-selling item in rural China – hair adornments for women. There were kids sitting in wicker baskets on the backs of their mothers and grandmothers, and a young guy with a cigarette hanging out of his mouth fired a shot with a small semi-toy rifle at a bird above us. I stopped in the middle of the market and a crowd gathered around me and we chatted for a few minutes, with them asking the obvious questions about who I was and where I was going, while they gave me the obvious answer to the question of how was life – poor, they said.

I took a photo of a man with a big smile on his face wearing pretty dirty clothes that nevertheless looked pretty comfortable, and I was berated for taking the shot by a woman wearing a vaguely fur-like coat that was stylishly out of place in a village market. “My clothes are not too clean either,” I said, pointing to my slightly torn trousers and grubby work shirt. “Also, you are the most fashionable person here. Your coat is lovely.” She smiled happily. I walked out of the market with a middle aged couple and they told me how the village had a history of 2,000 years, and that it was all that was left of the old Yunyang county seat, which had been below us. “We were above the waterline, so

we didn’t have to move,” said the woman. “We were lucky. Everyone else has moved to the new county town.” I could see why she was happy to stay. The valley was pretty even on a gloomy morning. Then we turned a corner and came upon a cement factory, the bane of China’s rural environment. The air turned powdery and foul, and I hurried past, trying not to breathe deeply. “Contribute your loyalty to the motherland, give your youth to the army,” said a slogan on a farmhouse wall. The road started to wind upwards, and at times I could see three or four stretches of road below me as it switch-backed up the mountain. I puffed my way up the steep grade, and

the motorcycle guys tried to get me to accept a ride, often for free, but I waved them away. “Giving birth to a boy or girl is the same,” said another slogan. “Population quality is the most important thing.” I came upon a field of half mature rapeseed, the flowers not yet fully open, but a family was busy harvesting it to presumably steal a march on the market. Four or five people cut and bundled the plants while their cow wandered around the patch chewing on selected flower tops. The family members laughed and talked as they worked steadily, and the cow seemed happy too. I stopped and absorbed this classic country scene for a few minutes, and left feeling that some of the peace had rubbed off onto me.

October 2013

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18 Guan Ao Yuan, Longgang

Harris Corporate Services Ltd

KLM - Greater China Regional

Road Qinghe, Haidian, Beijing

www.harrissec.com.cn

Office

Tongji University SIMBA

100192

Shanghai Office

www.klm.com.cn

A309 Sino-French Center, Tongji

PRC

Suite 904, OOCL Plaza,

1609-1611 Kuntai International

University, 1239 Siping Road

Tel: +86 137 1881 0084

841 Yan An Zhong Road,

Mansion, B12 Chaoyangmenwai

Shanghai, PRC

spasadmissions@gmail.com

Jing’An,

Avenue, Chaoyang, Beijing

Tel: +86 21 6598 0610

Shanghai

Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 10 5922 0747

Fax: +86 21 6598 3540

Livingston American School

Tel: +86 21 6289 8813

Fax: +86 10 5879 7621

China Europe Int’l Business

www.laschina.org

Fax:+86 21 6289 8816

Shanghai

School

580 Ganxi Road

info.sh@harrissec.com.cn

Air France - Shanghai Office

(CEIBS) MBA

Tel: +86 21 6238 3511

Beijing Office

www.airfrance.com.cn

www.ceibs.edu

Fax:+86 21 5218 0390

Room 2302, E-Tower, No.12

3901B Ciro’s Plaza

Tel: +86 21 2890 5555

Shanghai Community

Guanghua Road, Chaoyang,

388 Nanjing Road West

Fax: +86 21 2890 5200

International School (Pudong

Beijing, PRC

Tel: +86 21 6334 5702

admissions@ceibs.edu

Campus)

Tel: +86 10 6591 8087

mail.corporate.sha@airfrance.fr

Shanghai Jiaotong-Euromed

www.scischina.org

Management AEMBA Program

800 Xiuyan Road, Kangqiao,

Fax: +86 10 8599 9882

Business Schools

(MBA/EMBA)

Pudong

Guangzhou Office

Shanghai

www.aemba.com.cn

Tel: +86 21 5812 9888

Room D-E, 11/F, Yueyun

Fudan University - Washington

Tel: +86 21 5230 1598

Fax:+86 21 5812 9000

Building

University EMBA

Fax: +86 21 5230 3357

British International School

3 Zhongshan 2nd Road

www.olin.wustl.edu/shanghai

aemba@sjtu.edu.cn

Shanghai - Pudong Campus

Guangzhou, PRC

(English)

Tel: +86 20 8762 0508

www.fdms.edu.cn/olin (Chinese)

Fax: +86 20 3762 0543

Room 710, 670 Guoshun Road

Town, Lane 2729 Hunan Road,

info.gz@harrissec.com.cn

Shanghai, China, 200433

Pudong

Hong Kong Office

Tel: +86 21 5566 4788

Tel: +86 21 5812 7455

7/F, Hong Kong Trade Centre

Fax: +86 21 6565 4103

info.bj@harrissec.com.cn

www.bisshanghai.com

International Schools

Hotels

161-167 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong, PRC

Shanghai

Tel: +852 2541 6632

Grand Mercure Hongqiao

Fax: +852 2541 9339 info@harrissec.com.hk

Airlines

600 Cambridge Forest New

Harrow International School

Shanghai

Beijing

www.grandmercurehongqiao.com

Manchester Business School

www.harrowbeijing.cn

369 Xian Xia Road, Chang Ning

Part-time Global MBA

No. 5, 4th Block, Anzhenxili

Shanghai

Beijing

http://china.portals.mbs.ac.uk

Chaoyang, Beijing 100029

Tel: +86 21 5153 3300

Lufthansa German Airlines

Starts October 2013, Shanghai

PRC

Fax: +86 21 5153 3555

Beijing Office

Suite 628, 6/F Shanghai Centre,

Tel: +86 10 6444 8900

reservation@

October 2013

grandmercurehongqiao-shanghai.

Tel: +86 021 2326 7999

Street, Dongcheng

200050

com

Fax: +86 021 2326 7998

Tel: +86 10 8520 6000

Tel: +86 21 6213 2222

Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels

Marketing_China@cn.adp.com

Fax: +86 10 8520 6060

Fax: +86 21 6251 0000

& Resorts PTE. Ltd. Shanghai

Hudson Recruitment

Office

(Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

www.starwoodhotels.com

2302-2303, 2201-2206 Hongyi

19/F Phase 1 Huanmao Building

International Plaza, 288 Jiujiang

enquiry.lpcp@lansonplace.com

999 Huaihai Road Central,

Road, Shanghai

Tower 23, Central Park

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 2321 7888

No. 6 Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Tel: +86 21 6141 7799

shresume@hudson.com

Chaoyang, Beijing 100020

leasing@belvedere.com.cn

Real Estate/ Serviced Apartments

Fax: +86 21 6391 8220 The Leading Hotels of the

Lanson Place Central Park Residences

Tel: +86 10 8588 9588

Language Schools

Fax: +86 10 8588 9599

World, Ltd. Shanghai Rep.

Shanghai

Office

Oakwood Residence

Lanson Place Jin Qiao Serviced

www.lhw.com

www.oakwoodasia.com.

Residences

501A Shanghai Center, 1376

103 Wuning Lu, junction of

enquiry.lpjq@lansonplace.com

Nanjing Road West, Shanghai

Wuning Lu and Puxiong Lu.

No. 27 & 28, Lane 399 Zao

Tel: +86 21 6279 8951

Shanghai

Zhuang Road, Pudong, Shanghai

Fax: +86 21 6279 8952

HR/Recruitment

Tel: +86 21 6183 0830

200136

MandarinKing

Sales.resshanghai@oakwoodasia.

PRC

www.mandarinking.cn

com.

Tel: +86 21 5013 3888

Beijing

Shanghai

Savills Residence Century Park

Fax: +86 21 5013 3666

Beijing Deco Personal Services

No.555 West Nanjing Road,

www.savillsresidence.com

Ltd.

Room 1207 12th Floor, Plaza

No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu

china.adecco.com

555 Shanghai, PRC

Road Pudong, Shanghai 201303,

D 9/F Tower II China Central

Course Inquiry: 400 618 6685

PRC

Place, 79 Jianguo Road,

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 1063

Tel: +86 21 5197 6688

Chaoyang, Beijing

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 8671

info@savillsresidence.com

Tel: +86 010 5920 4320

study@mandarinking.cn

Real Estate/ Business Park

Fax: +86 010 5920 4322 beijing.cn@adecco.com

PR Agencies

Guangdong

Ketchum Newscan Public

Levin Human Resources

Relations

Development (Guangzhou) Ltd.

www.ketchum.com

Sandhill Plaza

www.levin.com.hk

Shanghai

www.sandhillplaza.cn

V15 4/F Goldlion Digital Network

218 Tianmu Road West

Center, 138 Tiyu Road East,

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Park View Apartment

Hi-Tech Park, Shanghai 201303

Tianhe, Guangzhou, Guangdong

Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

wwww.parkview-sh.com

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

Tel: +86 020 2886 0665

Beijing

Block 1-4, No. 888

Leasing@sandhill.cn

Fax: +86 020 3878 1801

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Changning Road

Shenyang

info@levin.com.hk

Chaoyang

Shanghai, 200042

Shenyang International

Shanghai

Tel: +86 10 5907 0055

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

Software Park

ADP China

Fax: +86 10 5907 0188

leasing@parkview-sh.com

No.860-1 Shangshengou,

www.adpchina.com

Ogilvy Group

Belvedere Service Apartments

Dongling, Shenyang City,

30/F Golden Bell Plaza, 98

www.ogilvy.com

www.belvedere.com.cn

Liaoning Province, 110167

Huaihai Road Central

Beijing

Belvedere Service Apartments

Tel: +86 24 8378 0500

Shanghai

9/F Huali Building, 58 Jinbao

833 Changning Road, Shanghai

Fax: +86 24 8378 0528

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

October 2013

LISTING Real Estate/HOPSCA

BEIJING (12 LOCATIONS)

15/F One Corporate Avenue

Regus China World Tower 3

222 Hubin Road

15/F China World Tower 3,

Luwan District

1 Jianguomenwai Avenue

Regus Jin Mao Tower

Chaoyang District

31/F Jin Mao Tower

CHENDU (3 LOCATIONS)

88 Shiji Avenue

Regus Yanlord Landmark

Lujiazui, Pudong

Apollo Business Center

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Regus One Prime

Apollo Huaihai Center [New]

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

Tower

25 F, One Prime

4/F, Fuxing Commercial Building

Development Co., Ltd

No.1, Section 2, Renmin South

No. 360, Wu Jin Road,

139 Ruijin Road (No.1)

www.antinganting.com.cn

Road

Hongkou District,

Huangpu

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

Jinjiang District

SHENZHEN (5 LOCATIONS)

Shanghai

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

CHONGQING

Regus Futian NEO

Tel: 021-6136-6088

Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

Regus Yangtze River

44/F, NEO Tower A

Apollo Flagship Center

Fax: +86 21 6950 2833

International Plaza

6011 Shennan Avenue

Apollo Building

jean.liu@chongbang.com

33/F Yangtze River International

Futian District

1440 Yan’an Road (M)

Plaza

Regus New World Centre

Jing’an

22 Nanbin Road

(NEW)

Shanghai

Vantone Commercial Center

Nanan District

23/F, New World Center,

Tel: 021-6133-1888

www.VantoneCommercialCenter.

DALIAN

No. 6009, Yitian Road,

Apollo Tomson Center

com

Regus Dalian World Trade

Futian District

22/F, Tomson Commercial

Level 26 & 27, Tower D, Vantone

Center

SUZHOU

Building

Center, No 6 Chaowai Ave

12/F, 25 Tongxing Street

Regus Suzhou JinHope plaza

710 Dongfang Road

Chaoyang, Beijing

Zhongshan District

(COMING SOON)

Pudong

Tel: +86 10 5905 5905

GUANGZHOU (5 LOCATIONS)

11/F, Tower2, Jin Hope Plaza

Shanghai

The Executive Centre

Regus G.T. Land Plaza (NEW)

88 Hua Chi Street, SIP

Tel: 021-6165-2288

Shanghai

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

Apollo Xuhui Center

International Finance Centre

G.T. Land Plaza, No. 85

Regus Tianjin Centre

16/F, Feidiao International Building

Level 8, International Finance

Huacheng Avenue

8/F Tianjin Centre

1065 Zhaojiabang Road

Center, 8 Century Avenue

Tian He District

No.219 Nanjing Road

Xuhui

Pudong

HANGZHOU (4 LOCATIONS)

Heping District

Shanghai

CITIC Square

Regus Euro American Centre

WUHAN

Tel: 021-5158-1688

Level 35, CITIC Square, 1168

4/F Euro America Center

Regus Wuhan Tiandi –

Apollo Hongqiao Center

Nanjing West Road, Jing’an

18 Jiaogong Road,

Corporate Centre 5

26/F, New Town Center Building

Xintiandi

Xihu District

8F, Wuhan Tiandi – Corporate

83 Loushanguan Road

Level 5, Xintiandi, 159 Madang

NANJING

Center 5, No. 1628 Zhong Shan

Changning

Road, Luwan

Regus Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Avenue

Shanghai

The Centre

Tower (COMING SOON)

Jiang’an District

Tel: 021-3133-2688

Level 20,The Centre, 989

8 F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Changle Road, Xuhui

Tower, No. 2, Hanzhong Road,

To have your company featured in these pages, please contact our

Gulou District

representatives at:

SHANGHAI (21 LOCATIONS)

ྙሯఓࡿਣ৛ႊቧᇦǈ஺༿ೊᇹྙሆঌᐊཽǖ

Regus Plaza 66

ᎆୈ Email: marketing@sinomedia.net

15/F, Tower 2, Plaza 66,

࢟જ Tel: +86 21 53859061

Serviced Ofﬁces

No.1266, West Nanjing Road,

2205, Shanghai Plaza, No.138 Huaihaizhong Rd, Shanghai, China, 200021

Jing’an District

ᒦਪ࿟਱ှઠ਱ᒦവ138੓࿟਱ਓ‫ޝ‬2205 ᎆ‫ܠ‬ǖ200021

Regus One Corporate Avenue

October 2013

APRIL 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 4 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

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