CER November 2013

NOVEMBER 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 11 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2013ฤ11Ꮬఓ

投资新浪潮 Emerging investments 朝阳产业生机无限 Profits to be made in cleantech

EDITOR’S NOTE | 编者的话

城

镇化是当前经济转型中的热门话题。金融学家巴曙松指出，以

NOVEMBER 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 11 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2013ฤ11Ꮬఓ

城市群为载体，以人为核心的城镇化会为下一阶段房地产行业

的发展提供平台。 中国制造向中国品牌成功转型的关键是什么？里斯伙伴中国公司 总经理张云认为，中国企业的经营模式能否实现从产品贸易向品牌经营 的转变，对于定位理论的掌握和运用将是至关重要的。 高成长性的互联网产业吸引着资本的眼球。不仅是互联网三大巨 头，很多传统媒体公司也尝到了收购互联网企业的甜头。并购浪潮会更

๯ሯྕাӞ Emerging investments ӜဥӉ၄഻ࠗ໵ན Profits to be made in cleantech

加剧烈，阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度三大巨头给创业者和VC创造了更多的 机会。 诸多互联网龙头企业递交了银行牌照申请，网络银行似已呼之欲 出。必须看到，互联网银行在本质上仍是银行，需要遵守银行业的游戏 规则，因此互联网金融最核心的问题还是风险管控。在今天回望过去， 人们会很惊诧，美国是怎么从经济危机的悬崖旁死里逃生的。重要的不

Executive Editor ᓍ‫ ܠ‬ Deputy Executive Editor ঃᓍ‫ ܠ‬ Editor-at-large ߲‫ ཽۈ‬ Associate Editors ‫૷ܠ‬

Liu Chen Philip Liu Graham Earnshaw Brenda Yang, Deng Dan

China Economic Review, English Editor ‫ ૷ܠ‬Oliver Pearce Staff Writer ᓟষཽ Don Weinland Interns ᓐಯ Miljan Glenny

Art Editor ගၣ‫ ૷ܠ‬Jason Wong Director of Sales and Marketing Pierre Zolghadri ሾ၉ှ‫ޝ‬ᔐପ Account Managers ሾ၉ளಯ Allen Xu, Ralph Wang, Jerry Cheng, Riikka Koponen Distribution Manager खቲளಯ Seana Liu

是这一次，而是似乎每一次都能转危为安。雷曼已去，两房犹在，回 顾历史总能有益于未来。对于潜在的金融风险在任何时候都不能掉以 轻心。

G

azing at the sky in northern China on an autumn day can be either depressing or full of opportunity, depending on

where you stand. The vast clouds of smog that descended on the north in early October mainly brought fear and anger; the public was enraged that this keeps occurring. “Just how bad does it need to get before something is done?” they wonder. Those with an eye for profit on the other hand were already calculating China’s next environmental policy moves and thinking where to invest.

For one thing is certain in modern China: Where public disquiet reaches boiling point the government is quick to say it will act.

Publisher ߲‫ۈ‬૦৩ China Economic Review Publishing Address ࢐ᒍ The Plaza Building, 102 Lee High Road London, SE13 5PT, England Room 1801, 18F, Public Bank Centre, 120 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong ISSN 2073-2570 Hong Kong printer 01 Printing Limited Suite M, 3/F, Tower 3, Kwun Tong Industrial Centre, 448 Kwun Tong Road, Kowloon

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04

November 2013

Thus, green investments are becoming more lucrative. According to analysts, gone are the days when an environmental product or service was loss-creating. These days there is real money to be made, if you use some creative thinking to look behind traditional investment plays in this area..

版权所有，未经版权所有人明确的书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式或媒介全部或部 分翻印或转载本刊内容。所有内容除特别标明外，均为本刊采编人员完成。文章中提 到的货币除特别说明外均指人民币。 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE CONTENT OF THIS PUBLICATION CANNOT BE REPRODUCED IN PART OR IN WHOLE BY ANY PERSON IN ANY JURISDICTION WITHOUT WRITTEN APPROVAL FROM THE COPYRIGHT HOLDER.

目录 CONTENT

8 14

28

ॖෂ৺ူ ᄾᓾቤ಍ޭ

ቤ਋‫ފ‬

The House View 10 Courting China

8 敬戒金融风险

Month in Review 12 ௡ୡ

ᓜ౺

14 News briefs

Column

18

16 再探房地产变局

18 Coase’s Chinese legacy 20 Betting on up 26 Moving past bling

22 大转型

Cover story ॖෂ৺ူ

32 Clean profits, China’s dirty skies

29 吸金潮

Report 36 朝阳产业生机无限 42 私募基金日新月异

40 Mind your manners

22

44 Gaming invasion

November 2013

05

目录 CONTENT

36

32

Cover story Clean profits, China’s dirty skies

40

જᄌ

46 Risk is back

50 物业市场需求旺盛

48 Playing with property

52 电商忧喜录

49 The big number 56 A financial revolution?

54 打造跨文化管理人才

60 定位时代

44

58 Blenders to banking 59 RMB and the city

ఘᒦਪ Looking at China 62 其味无穷 62 Food and texture

ည૚Ą᯺ᔇᇝᎊ଑ 64 桃花盛开

06

November 2013

Travel journal

60

65 A misty morning

新观察

敬戒金融风险 从全球经济危机中汲取经验教训 文 | 艺博

每

次提起2008年的经济危机，还有 那个全球经济危机年代冰岛和希腊

作为国家将要破产的新闻，足以让摇摇欲 坠的全球金融体系雪上加霜，同时又让欧 美资本主义国家经济体制的前景和优越性 受到质疑。社会主义学说再次验证了资本 主义经济危机的不可避免性，进而在旁观 美国处理经济危机的一系列举措时，评价 其越来越走向社会主义。假如我们抛却这 些主义和体制的竞争，踏踏实实回到经济 实体上来，在今天回望过去，我们会很惊 诧，美国是怎么从经济危机的悬崖旁死里 逃生的。重要的不是这一次，而是似乎每 一次都能转危为安。 马克·赞迪回顾了经济危机5年来， 发生在美国乃至全球的经济事件，他撰写 的《美国回来》一书，由表及里地从政治 和经济两个层面分析了美国回归的缘由。

美国是怎么从经济危机的悬崖旁逃生的

读来让人扼腕。不得不承认，美国金融体 系依然是全球顶尖的—没有之一。因为

面来考虑，都是势在必行的。而汽车行业

诺要坚决控制发生频率和危害程度。这已

他们擅长总是退出最好的金融产品。

成了经济复苏的领头羊。虽说没有政府的

经是金融史上的巨大进步。人们已经发现

帮助汽车行业也可能会柳暗花明，但是一

本次经济危机的根源在于21世纪初期的不

定不会如此迅猛。

良放贷。但是究竟谁应该为此负责？虽然

从一开始的经济震荡演变成最后的金 融恐慌，2008年9月7日星期天的那个下 午，两房的收归国有让整个国家的一代人

“工欲善其事，必先利其器”，导致

该法案被称为对不良贷款最具洞悉力，但

都对未来产生了怀疑。市场已经狂泻且交

金融监管缺失的金融体系本身的整顿也必

是挂一漏万仍是不可避免。这些未知数依

投清淡，保险和银行的倒闭，让人们几乎

须要提上议事日程上来。人们发现该体系

然要留给后人来解决。

再无可信任的金融机构。尽管雷曼背靠美

的最大风险源自于传统银行外部星罗棋布

经济危机后的美国似乎已经重回正

联储，且并不缺钱，但因其风险日涨，合

的机构，市场称之为“影子银行系统”。

常，信心和冒风险这一独树一帜的美国企

作伙伴们渐渐远去，万恶的投机者推波助

也就是对冲基金、私募公司以及其他一切

业家精神，在经济危机后也黯然失色。毫

澜，导致其破产。

发行、投资和交易一系列名目繁多的贷

不夸张地说，经济危机的余波将重塑几代

款、债权和衍生物的机构。

人的经济和政治。美国的回归和当年的经

应该说这是严重的错误，迄今不少

08

经济学家依然认为政府在处理雷曼破产事

2010年正式立法的《多德-弗兰克法

济危机一样，来也匆匆，去也匆匆。放眼

件上有过错。也可能正是因为如此，在几

案》成为金融体系整顿的纲领性文件。尽

现在的美国，看不到2008年经济危机的惶

周之内，美国政府从放弃雷曼到全力援助

管关于该法案本身的争议至今仍然没有停

惶不可终日感，能记得的仿佛是我们克服

金融体系，来了个大转弯。为了美国的利

息，但是就其本身而言，有些方面还是入

全球经济危机的4万亿经济刺激投资。雷曼

益，万亿美元级别的刺激计划从银行、保

木三分，当然也有不可避免的浅尝辄止之

已去，两房犹在，回顾历史总能有益于未

险蔓延到了车市，这一无论从政治需求和

处，但是这并不影响该法案的旗手地位。

来，马克·赞迪的视角值得投资者们审视

社会稳定，还是从利害关系和行业立国方

虽然无法阻止金融危机的发生，但是它承

和学习。

November 2013

THE HOUSE VIE W

Courting China London has decided to court investment from Beijing, and in terms of the economic implications, it is hard to fault the decision

UK finance minister George Osborne visited China in mid-October to drum up investment in Britain

F

rom the Magna Carta to the Industrial Revolution, Britain has never shied away from stepping out from the crowd and doing things its own way. Now, as the country grapples with its decline as a global power, it is being bold in its attempts to remain relevant – with China’s help.

In mid-October its finance chief George Osborne and Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, flew to China seeking investment and partnerships in trade and finance. Beijing has not received any emissaries from the island nation for almost 18 months, after UK Prime Minister David Cameron met with the Dalai Lama in early 2012.

10

November 2013

They come home with several lucrative deals in the bag.

The message being sent out is quite clear: The UK is open for business and it doesn’t really care where the money comes from as long as it comes. It needs to be. As mayor Johnson noted, Chinese cash “enables us to get on with building projects that simply wouldn’t happen.”

China is interested. The UK was the fourth most popular destination for Chinese outbound investment in 2012, rising from eighth place in 2011 and 21st in 2010. Chinese investment in the UK in 2012 surged 95% year-on-year to US$2.77 billion, official data show.

State-backed Chinese companies

have been given the go-ahead to invest in a new nuclear project, starting with small stakes that could eventually be allowed to turn into bigger holdings. London is even willing to pump Chinese cash into its planned “super sewer” system.

China’s foreign-exchange regulator has been actively but discreetly investing in UK property and infrastructure, putting US$1.6 billion into at least four deals, including a water utility, student housing, and office buildings in London and Manchester. Private capital is also coming. The £800 million (US$1.2 billion) “airport city” project in Manchester has a Chinese partner.

So why is there so much interest from China? For one, Chinese officials view the UK as the “most open” and “most market-oriented” economy in Europe. Historically, it has welcomed foreign investment across all sectors and offers security – the state doesn’t nationalize assets at a whim and the courts are independent.

Assets are also competitively priced in this downturn.

This is reflected in its attractiveness.

Last year foreign direct investment in the UK surged 22% from the year before compared to an 18% drop globally, according to a UN report.

London is a global center for everything from media to finance. It straddles the mid-point of a time zone that it gave the world and has exploited

its imperial past to dominate sectors including shipping, currency exchange and international business law. Foreigners pour their cash in.

But the city’s prominent role – as flaunted in the Olympics last year – masks from overseas guests deeper cracks clearly apparent in the many parts of the country, particularly the industrial heartlands in the middle and north. The global economic slump has been unkind to these places, entrenching the effects of the 1980s recession and the decline of the manufacturing sector.

Building new roads, railways and power plants, all of which are desperately needed for the UK to retain its place as a leading economy if not by size then innovation, is costly. Treas-

ury coffers are empty. So politicians board planes to court investors.

Brits largely shrug at news of Chinese investment. They are long used to foreign capital in public assets. Fears of a takeover by a “Communist dictatorship” have thankfully been confined to the pages of populist tabloid newspapers. There has been no backlash in parliament. Foreign investment is scrutinized but not shooed away. Even Huawei can do business in the UK. Britain is no longer a superpower.

In order to secure economic prosperity for its citizens it must stay ahead of the pack in key and innovative fields.

Achieving this requires investment in world-class infrastructure. If China is willing to pay, then the UK should accept.

November 2013

11

聚焦

综合 三中全会出台改革新政 11月9日至12日在北京召开的中共十八届 三中全会将出台新的改革政策，包括行政 管理、金融体制、财税体制、资源价格、 土地制度、户籍制度和收入分配等领域改 革，政府和市场关系将是重要议题。国 务院发展研究中心课题组提出的“383方 案”改革设想，涉及简政放权、土地、金 融、财税、打破垄断、国企改革和服务业 等八大领域的改革，三中全会或采纳其中 部分内容。

9月份一线城市房价飙升 国家统计局发布今年9月份70大中城市房 价数据。除温州同比下降外，其余69个城 市新建商品房价格均同比上涨，北京、上 海、广州、深圳等一线城市房价涨幅超过

短期内房价上涨的态势难以改变

20%。预计十八届三中全会或传达出房地 产市场调控的信号，但短期内房价上涨态

称，2012年底中国影子银行规模或达到

排在第一，中国联通以1.1亿户排在第二

势难以改变。

20.5万亿元（基于市场数据），监管当局

位，中国电信用户数也逼近1亿户。

应完善影子银行体系的监管，以适应影子

热钱流入明显

银行的发展。

9月央行口径新增外汇占款大幅增长，9月

今年前三季度，中石油和中石化净利润

末余额较8月末增加2682多亿元，增长幅

对外转移过剩产能

总共近1469亿元，平均每日赚5.38亿

度创出5个月新高。显示热钱流入明显。

国务院近期将钢铁、水泥、电解铝、平板

元。“383方案”提出，放开对进口原

玻璃、船舶等五大严重产能过剩行业作为

油、成品油、天然气的限制，政府不再直

移动电话用户超12亿户

改革重点。中国建材集团董事长宋志平

接规定成品油价格，改为在石油价格出现

工信部网站发布情况通报称，第三季度全

称，全球水泥今年产量不到40亿吨，其中

较大幅度波动时采取临时性干预措施。

国移动电话用户超过12亿户；固定互联

中国消耗24亿吨，而目前中国的潜在产能

网宽度接入用户达到1.86亿户；移动互联

超过30亿吨。他建议将过剩产能转移至非

苏宁云商投资PPTV

网用户达到8.2亿户，其中3G上网用户占

洲、东南亚、印度等发展中经济体。

苏宁云商联合联想控股旗下弘毅资本，以

比超过30%；智能手机1-9月出货量3.47 亿，在国内手机市场占比达74.3%。

公司与市场 德勤预计A股IPO即将重启

4.2亿美元战略投资PPTV。苏宁集团今年 开始转型互联网化，收购PPTV或为未来 视频购物和数字消费做准备。

国民总财富净资产亚洲第二

审计机构德勤中国在10月初的一份报告中

德国保险公司安联集团《全球财富报告》

认为，美联储维持量化宽松和中共十八届

盛大推出首款社交支付产品

显示，中国国民总财富净资产达到6.5万亿

三中全会将会推动香港和A股IPO市场发

盛大网络旗下上海由你网络科技有限公司

欧元（约合54.5万亿人民币），在亚洲仅

展。预计A股市场新股发行可能在三中全

发布首款社交支付产品Youni（有你）正

次于日本，排名第二，但人均财富全球排

会前后重新启动。

式版，该产品跨智能手机操作平台，将移 动社交和个人之间支付转账有机整合，从

名仅居38位。

12

“两桶油”日赚5.38亿元

三大电信商日赚4.2亿元

社交角度切入支付，从支付角度切入社

银子银行规模逾20万亿元

三大电信运营商今年前三季平均日赚约4.2

交，带来“社交支付”全新理念。此前，

中国社会科学院金融法律与金融监管研

亿元，略高于去年同期。目前三家运营商

该产品Youni短信版已经积累了5000余万

究基地发布《中国金融监管报告2013》

的3G用户规模，中国移动以1.695亿总量

用户。

November 2013

调查与分析 创业板4年造豪榜 从2009年10月30日第一批创业板公 司挂牌至今，已有上市公司355家，总市

最大商务旅游市场 全球商务旅行协会（GBTA）研究报 告预测，增长虽较预期缓慢，中国仍有望成 为全球最大商务旅游市场。

值也上升到近1.5万亿元，相比4年前增长

商务旅行的前景仍然乐观，中国商务

了9倍多。并催生出337位财富在5亿元以

旅游市场增长速度较其他国家为快。GBTA

上的富豪。胡润研究院近日发布《2013胡

预测，2013年中国商务旅行总支出将会上

润创业板富豪榜》（上榜富豪上市公司财

升14.3%，达2240亿美元，而2014年商务

富计算的截止日期为2013年9月27日），

旅行支出总增长将达到17.2%。虽然2013

榜单主要内容有：337位来自355家创业

年上半年的增长较预期弱，中国仍将有望于

板上市公司的股东财富超过5亿元，4年前

最早于2016年超越美国成为全球最大的商

只有33位。除已经登上今年胡润百富榜前

务旅游市场。

1000名的68位企业家，这些人中有260

国内旅行的增长速度持续优于出境商

多人是新面孔。5位“80后”，81位“70

务旅游。据GBTA预测，这一趋势将会持

后”。33岁和32岁的汉鼎股份的王麒诚、

续，预期2013年国内旅游支出增长率为

吴艳夫妇是榜单上仅有的两位“80后”白

14.3%，2014年更将升至17.2%。相比

手起家富豪，以21亿元位列榜单第65位。

之下，中国出境商务旅行的增长于过去两

出光线传媒的王长田家族以183亿元成为

年显著放缓。预计增速将会在2013年达到

2013创业板首富；2009年的创业板首

12.8%，并在2014年回升至16.3%，但仍

跨境通或冲击奢侈品实体店

富，华谊兄弟的王忠军、王忠磊兄弟今年

然低于2000年至2009年间的增长水平。预

入驻上海自贸区的国家跨境贸易电子交

以135亿元排名第四。上榜企业家做科技

计北京首都国际机场将超越亚特兰大的哈茨

易试点“跨境通”电商平台已完成功能

的最多，其中从事IT行业的人数最多，占

菲尔德-杰克逊国际机场，成为全球最繁忙

测试，即将推出服装、服饰、婴幼儿用

总上榜人数的32.7%。排名前五位的企业

的机场。

品、3C电子产品、化妆品和箱包等六大类

家有三位从事文化传播行业。

澳洲物业吸引力增强

热门商品，价格有望比国内专柜低30%。 上线运营后，将会缩小国内外奢侈品价格 差距，对实体店或构成较大冲击。

上海金融景气指数

随着澳洲与中国的贸易关系加强，

罗兰贝格管理咨询公司与上海金融业

中国人投资澳洲的意愿上升。高力国际的

联合会近日共同发布了“2013上半年上海

调研显示，中国人对澳洲商用物业兴趣日

注册资本登记制度改革

金融景气指数”。主要内容如下：第一，

浓。2007至2012年间，澳洲的外国直接投

公司注册资本登记制度将改革，包括注册

上海金融业整体保持向好发展态势。反映

资中，中国所占比例增加了两倍，原因是投

资本由实缴登记制改为认缴登记制，取消

景气度的增速指数为1084点，景气度较

资者对房地产的兴趣浓厚，近期中国人对该

有限责任公司最低注册资本3万元、一人有

高。第二，金融创新不断深化，创新成果

国房地产的投资增长更高于矿产勘探和开

限责任公司最低注册资本10万元、股份有

陆续推出。融券交易量的大幅提升推动了

发。中国政府的限购措施以及新颁布的鼓励

限公司最低注册资本500万元的限制，不

新推型创新的继续快速增长，新推型创新

离岸投资的法例，也促使中国投资者在澳洲

再限制公司设立时股东（发起人）的首次

发展度子指数较2012年末增长55.4%，

市场的投资活动创新高。高力国际统计数字

出资比例和缴足出资的期限，将企业年检

从而大幅推动金融创新整体发展度提升。

显示，由年初至今，中国投资者单单在悉尼

制度改为年度报告制度，放宽市场主体住

第三，金融市场持续发展，市场交易仍然

住宅发展用地已经投资超过6亿澳元（约合

所（经营场所）登记条件。

较为活跃。货币市场、外汇市场、基金市

34.6亿人民币)，并计划在这些地点兴建近

场和黄金市场的发展程度较高，推动金融

5000个单位。澳洲物业的中国投资有四大

中国当代艺术品创最高价

市场发展度持续提升。第四，金融国际化

来源：银行及金融机、放眼全球的发展商、

艺术家曾梵志的《最后的晚餐》10月5日

整体平稳增长。人民币国际化加速发展，

大型国家企业（国企）及中国主权财富基金

在苏富比以7000万港元起拍，以1.6亿港

再次成为亮点，推动金融国际化发展度提

（主权基金）和高资产净值人士。

元落槌，加佣金后成交价高达 1.8044亿港

升。第五，金融机构机构数量保持增长。

元，刷新了中国当代艺术品和亚洲当代艺

第六，金融生态环境加速优化。第七，金

术品的最高拍卖价纪录。

融人才引进与培育机制不断完善。

（本栏目内容根据公开信息整理）

November 2013

13

MONTH IN RE VIE W

NEWSBRIEFS State oil price change boosts refiners’ performance Chinese oil giants China Petroleum & Chemical (Sinopec; 600028.SHA) and PetroChina (601857.SHA) reported strong results in the third-quarter on China’s new oil-pricing system.

Sinopec posted a 20% rise in thirdquarter net profit from a year earlier, even better than larger rival PetroChina, which announced a 19% increase in net profit for the same period.

Date set for third plenum China’s leaders will convene a longawaited policy meeting on November 9-12 to discuss the country’s economic agenda for the next decade, the official Xinhua News Agency announced. Such meetings have sometimes been used in the past as springboards for economic change. One of China’s top leaders Yu Zhengsheng said the meeting will unveil “broad” and “unprecedented” reforms.

Russia and China sign massive $85bn oil supply deal

China announces smog monitor China’s Health Ministry announced it will establish within five years a national network to study the health effects of smog. The network will gather data on PM2.5, or particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers, in different locations around the country.

The government has long pushed back against such a close watch over PM2.5 levels but the ministry admitted in a recent report that the absence of monitoring has smudged the link between pollution and illness.

14

November 2013

Russia signed a deal worth US$85 billion to supply China with oil over the next decade, state media reported. The agreement was sealed during a visit

by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to Beijing. Russian oil major Gazprom will supply 70 million barrels of crude a year for 10 years. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said Gazprom and CNPC had also agreed on a gas pricing formula with a view to supplying 38 billion cubic meters of Russian gas per year.

After fallout, Alibaba may still eye Hong Kong for listing Alibaba Group founder Jack Ma expressed his intention to improve the understanding of his business in Hong Kong, the latest sign that company may yet choose the market for an initial public offering, South China Morning Post reported. “I used to think I knew Hong Kong,” Ma said during a fresh public relations campaign to try to rebuild the e-commerce giant’s reputation in Hong Kong.

China looks to clean up local government debt China will help local governments pay off bonds and loans by approving more short-term debt issues, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Economists estimate local governments may have borrowed as much as US$5 trillion in recent years to fund projects and keep the economy humming as Beijing scaled back the stimulus efforts it had undertaken following the global financial crisis.

Japan’s Meiji quits Chinese milk formula market

China restricts imports of foreign TV programs

Japanese dairy giant Meiji (2269.TYO) announced it is withdrawing its baby milk business from the Chinese market. The company cited rising production costs and intense competition as the reasons for its new move. But some industry experts believe the situation may be more complicated, including fallout from the Fukushima nuclear disaster and China-Japan relations.

China will limit satellite TV stations to broadcast one foreign program each year from 2014, part of the move to push “morality-building” and educational shows, Reuters reported, citing state media. The new rules are an extension of an earlier policy announced in February, which capped the broadcast of foreign television series to 50 episodes, and will result in fewer foreign series being broadcast on Chinese TV. The Chinese government has said it is increasingly concerned about what it sees as rising vulgarity in domestic television programming.

At the same time, it has been moving to limit domestic channels’ reliance on imported content.

China cuts equipment import duties in Shanghai FTZ Manufacturing and production service businesses will be able to receive equipment duty-free in the recentlylaunched Shanghai free trade zone under a new tax policy released by the

Ministry of Finance, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing an announcement by China’s finance, customs and taxation regulators.

Imports of machines, equipment and other necessary goods for manufacturing will all be exempt from duty tax.

Non-manufacturing purpose goods that are imported by production service enterprises will not be duty-free.

November 2013

15

专栏

再探房地产变局 从城镇化发展战略的大背景来考察房地产业的新机遇 文 | 巴曙松 金融学家

在

过去十几二十年

多人强调房地产要从重资产做成轻资产行

里，房地产行业的

业，要参与其他的服务业领域，就体现了

商 商业模式如果按照不同阶段

巴曙松

这样的思考。

人的城镇化 城镇化的国家级规划也在紧锣密鼓 地起草修订完善，从目前公开的信息可以

做 做价值链划分，在每个业务

房地产怎么转型？从国际经验看，在

看到，核心是人的城镇化，以城市群为载

环 环节贡献的价值最多的，对

人均收入突破8000美元之后，房地产行业

体，以人为核心的城镇化会为下一阶段房

照 照下来，就是获取项目的成

会从住宅市场的繁荣过渡到多元业态的格

地产行业的发展提供平台。

本 本，特别是对土地资金成本

局。可能不只是住宅，工业、物流、商业

在这个背景下，考察房地产行业未

的 的管理能力。老板能够把地

地产、房地产金融同时发展，包括制造、

来的机会最为重要的就是要寻找人往哪里

搞 搞定，资金成本拿得低，设

运营和服务。开盘卖光不是房地产开发，

去，要居住、要消费、要工作，是怎样的

计、销售都是可有可无的

那个时代正在过去。考虑到未来中国从工

产业业态？必须要做这样细致的分析。过

事，这是过去十几二十年的游戏规则，而

业时代向服务时代转型的大背景，行业转

去30年这个分析可以做的非常粗浅，因

未来房地产价值链仅仅靠资源的获取将变

型方向也应该在于服务价值链条的重塑。

为这个时期人流非常的单一，也就是从农

得越来越不重要。土地招投标透明度的提

我们比较了GDP的潜在增长率，觉得可能

村流向城市，从内陆流向沿海。而经济发

高，融资渠道的多元化，现在逐步变为成

会温和下移。这一届最高决策层为什么对

展到目前这个阶段，城市化率过了50%以

熟市场这样的“微笑曲线”，前期调研、

经济刺激持非常审慎的态度，是因为他们

后，人流变得日益多元化，有回流的，也

产品设计和后期的物业管理、金融配套，

清醒地认识到外部和内部的变化导致中国

有从大城市到小城市的，和继续从农业向

只有从战略上来拓展“微笑曲线”，才能

经济增长下移，不应盲目追求高增长。在

非农业转移的，不同地区的业态不一样。

打破原有的行业空间和行业极限，这是价

下移的同时，服务业占GDP的比重在稳

媒体前段时间有一个小炒作，“榨

值链的拓展。很多开发商没有这么说，但

步上升，今年已经超过第二产业，这是大

菜指数”是我在发改委内部讨论会上提出

已经在探索，他们在一线很了解情况。很

趋势。

的，结果被一家媒体报道成“发改委官员 榨菜指数”。对流动人口没有跟踪，没有 统计，怎么来做决策支持？不仅有榨菜指 数，我说榨菜指数是编的，要找一些近似 的指标来做参考。我找了几个指标，如火 腿肠、方便面、榨菜，找几家主流的前几 位的上市公司，看披露的年报，在不同地 区的销售占比，比如华南、华东地区。对 近5到10年这几个快销品，流动人口分区 域的消费占比都做了跟踪计算，发现华南 地区，在涪陵榨菜上市公司发布的公报 里，从5年前的50%多降到20%多。还有 手机神州行套餐，根据在全国不同地区的 漫游，在不同地区用户的占比，可以很 清晰地看出这种变化。我曾经用过这个数 据，2008年底的经济冲击程度，到底有没 有出现大规模返乡潮呢？其中一个判断依 据就是调用移动公司的数据，跟踪看神州

人口流动的终极方向是大都市区

16

November 2013

行群体漫游比率的波动是很有规律的，每

以人为核心的城镇化会为下一个阶段房地产行业的发展提供平台

到春节前两周迅速攀升，正月十五以后回

持有了。

这种梯次发展的背后是人口流动和产业的

落到正常水平。而在2008年9月和10月，

1920到2010年美国大都市区人口的

转移。从人口的绝对规模来看，尽管中国

漫游的比例已经超过了以前春节时期，如

变化，实际是在不断集聚。美国大都市区

沿海城市圈已经比较成熟，未来人口流入

果没有返乡的话，只有一种可能就是这些

最为突出的特点是郊区人口增长的速度远

速度会放缓，但依然是中国最重要的大都

农民工把手机寄回去了。所以通过大数据

远快于中心城区，所以城镇化的亮点是未

市圈。

的分析，可以做出很多跟踪判断。

来对土地制度的突破。我请教了很多土地

中国城镇人口的分布还在向发达地

制度的专家，关键在于大都市区城郊集体

区集聚。今年以来的房价上涨，怎么来评

流向大都市区

用地的入市，以及农村宅基地的整合。中

估？通过限购限贷后，投机性力量基本被

从美国经验看，人口流动的终极方向

国其实城市的用地是比较节约的，4万平方

剔除，这就说明是实质需求推动的。一部

是流向大都市区。我们梳理了从1609年到

公里，农村宅基地占到17万平方公里。缺

分城市是供应不足，人口从小城市向大城

现在，从小城市变大城市，大城市变成郊

不缺地？缺；用地浪不浪费？浪费。农村

市流动，而且年轻人占主导，这是主要的

区化，整合成大都市圈，这样不断演进的

宅基地面积是城市建成区面积的4倍还多。

需求，必须要满足这一部分人的需求。对

过程。如果仅仅按城市化率来对比，当然

人口在美国大都市的中心城区和郊区

照美国的经验，大致可以推测人口在一百

不确切。美国城市人口占总人口的比重，

之间的重构，催生了美国房地产市场在上

万到五百万之间的中型城市是亮点，我们

也就是城市化率达到51%的时候是1925

世纪50年代之后的第二轮繁荣浪潮。过去

做了非常简略的城市群GDP复合增长率的

年，我们是在去年，在1925年之后业态的

十多年，中国人口流动的轨迹是由内陆和

预测，这些城市将会成为城镇化推进的主

变化，不一定走一样的路，但是可以做参

农村、乡镇、县城、地级市流向沿海发达

要载体。

考。美国五百万以上人口的九个大都市区

城市，基本是一种单向的流动。目前这个

我们考察这个业态和行业的发展趋

占整个人口的24.6%，纽约大都市区占总

趋势在改变，人口流动开始由单向转向多

势，自觉地把它放到城镇化发展战略的大

人口的6.1%，洛杉矶占4.2%。到美国做

向。各种流动的方式都有，人口流动轨迹

背景下来考察，再从中发现一些新机会。

房地产投资，还得到大都市区。如果是人

的变化会重塑中国城市发展的梯度，我与

（本文根据巴曙松在清科2013中国

烟稀少的地方，价格看上去很便宜，买完

很多房地产界人士讨论，他们比较看好的

房地产基金高峰论坛上的演讲整理，内容

之后房地产就真的没有流动性，只能自己

是长江中游代表的新型城市圈。内陆城市

接续本刊上一期《房地产变局背后》）

November 2013

17

COLUMN

Coase’s Chinese legacy Remembering and assessing the importance of an economist whose ideas will prove crucial as China works to achieve high-income status

T

he recent death of Ronald H. Coase, the ffounding father of new iinstitutional economiics, is a great loss to Chinese economists who n aare seeking an effective Andrew Sheng fframework for undersstanding China’s ongoiing economic transfformation. His legacy – insights into the role of firms, financial instio ttutions and the state in sshaping the market and driving economic develd opment – will prove cruXiao Geng o ccial as China works to achieve high-income status.

With two seminal papers, Coase changed the way economists view institutions’ impact on an economy.

His 1937 paper “The Nature of the Firm” introduced the concept of transaction costs into discussions of a firm’s structure, function and limitations. His 1960 paper “The Problem of Social Cost” proposed that the state could manage the negative externalities, such as pollution or traffic, of economic activities through well-defined property rights.

In his final years, Coase shifted his focus to the emergence of capitalism and the creation of markets in China.

According to Coase, since the period of reform and opening up began in

18

November 2013

1979, China has been a living experiment in institutional evolution, shaped simultaneously by the central government and by local governments and enterprises.

This evolution is at the center of a case study of Foshan, a city of 7 million people located near Guangzhou, at the heart of the Pearl River Delta, launched last year by a team of Chinese researchers (of which we were a part).

As it turns out, Foshan may well be the ideal example to test Coase’s views.

Given Foshan’s proximity to Hong Kong, it is firmly embedded in global supply chains – a fact that has helped to drive rapid nominal GDP growth, from roughly RMB 1.3 billion in 1978

to RMB 670.9 billion (US$109.7 billion) last year. The private sector, focused on the production of home appliances, machinery equipment, construction materials, textiles and food, accounts for more than 60% of Foshan’s GDP. Foshan is also home to the world’s largest wholesale lighting and furniture markets, and its products are exported internationally.

According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-backed think tank, Foshan is China’s most competitive prefecture-level city, and its eighth most competitive city overall, owing partly to institutional innovations by local governments at the township, district and prefecture levels. These

Chinese cities need to deveop “software” such as IP protection to complement their infrastructure “hardware”

innovations enabled Foshan to create markets that were largely defunct before 1979, while coping with rapid urbanization, industrialization and globalization.

Foshan’s development offers important insight into the core problem that China is now facing: How to transform a low value-added, manufacturing-based economy into a high value-added, innovation-fueled economy. While the previous model brought 30 years of success in terms of GDP growth, it generated considerable risks and imbalances including environmental degradation, social inequities, excessive debt, industrial overcapacity and a bloated state sector. As Foshan’s experience demonstrates, cities can play a pivotal role in correcting these imbalances and driving China’s economic transition.

The Chinese city evolved as a walled-in seat of power centered around a marketplace. Indeed, the

two characters that comprise the Chinese word for city mean “castle” and “market” – an apt juxtaposition, which endures today in the form of the relationship between collective state-led action to build strong markets and private-sector competition within and among cities.

In terms of physical infrastructure, China’s most dynamic cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Foshan already resemble Western metropolises like Paris and Chicago. But this “hardware” is inefficient without the “software” needed to manage it, namely, as Coase suggested, an efficient property-rights infrastructure (the laws, procedures and administrative capacity needed to support efficient, fair and innovative markets).

The convergence of consumer lifestyles and preferences driven by globalization has enabled the world’s major cities to specialize production for global markets. But, given regional differences in political, social and economic arrangements – often reflecting the particularities of local history and culture – significant divergences in citizens’ attitudes remain. Responsibility for ensuring the smooth functioning of markets despite these disparities falls to the state. In other words, markets are global networks, which depend on cities to serve as hubs; cities, in turn, require state coordination of supply chains to deliver market-enabling public goods effectively.

China’s growth story has entailed the orchestration of at least four supply chains: A global production supply chain, run largely by the private sector; a logistics supply chain, run by stateowned enterprises; a finance supply chain, mainly comprising state-owned

banks; and a government-services supply chain. Cities like Foshan have benefited substantially from the effective coordination of these networks. But a fifth supply chain – that of human talent – has largely been neglected, and cities cannot achieve their potential unless they can attract the best human talent.

A Coasian analysis of China’s development would center on the complex interaction between the locally minded state and the globally minded market, with the key lesson being that, contrary to free-market ideology, less government does not necessarily mean more market. Rather, an expanding market needs a strong government, but with a more targeted approach that emphasizes, for example, developing the property-rights infrastructure, building the human talent pool and implementing macroeconomic policies that support high-quality growth.

Neither capitalism nor socialism has fully revealed how to achieve efficient GDP growth, an inclusive society and ecological sustainability simultaneously. If China applies Coase’s institutional insights to develop an effective development framework, it may well manage to strike this crucial balance.

Andrew Sheng, President of the Fung Global Institute, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and is currently an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Xiao Geng is Director of Research at the Fung Global Institute. Published in partnership with Project Syndicate. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2013

November 2013

19

COLUMN

Betting on up China’s shifting cyclical-structural tradeoff keeps confounding the analysts, says Stephen S. Roach

O

nce again, the Chinese economy is cconfounding the nayssayers. At a minimum, iincoming data point to a bottoming of the latest ccyclical downshift – disStephen S. Roach p pelling the fears of many who believed that China w was finally headed for a hard landing. Moreover, signs are increasingly evident that the Chinese economy may experience a mild rebound in the second half of 2013, with real GDP growth accelerating toward 8%.

That’s the tentative verdict that can be taken from a rebound in most of the high-frequency data on the real economy for August – ranging from the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), fixed investment and exports to industrial output, electricity production and retail sales.

The PMI rebound is especially encouraging in that it is a key leading indicator of the manufacturing cycle that has long underpinned the modern Chinese economy. While it hit a 16-month high in August, adjusting for recurring seasonality, the PMI moved up even more sharply to a three-year high. Gains were most pronounced in the forward-looking orders component and were especially concentrated in large enterprises.

Looking at the broad cross-section of the August data flow, in conjunction

20

November 2013

with first glimmers of improvement reported for July, the odds have shifted toward a reacceleration in Chinese economic growth in the second half of this year.

In contrast to earlier cyclical rebounds in China, however, this one is likely to be more modest. This is by design – not by accident. Unlike cyclical shortfalls of the past that triggered massive pro-active investment stimulus packages and aggressive monetary easing, the new leadership is keeping its powder relatively dry. Monetary policy seems particularly focused on weaning China from the debt-intensive growth impetus of the past five years, and fiscal initiatives have been far more limited than in the past – focused mainly on China’s strategic emerging industries such as new generation information technology, alternative energy and environmental protection, as well as on some targeted infrastructure initiatives.

This reflects a new strategic emphasis to China’s growth strategy, namely a rethinking of the balance between cyclical and structural tactics.

In days past, Chinese macro managers were captives of the business cycle: A short-term weakening in the economy sparked stimulus and overheating triggered a tightening of demand management policies. They addressed these problems with the blunt instruments of macro stabilization policies aimed at the quantity of aggregate

GDP growth – paying little consideration to the more subtle dimensions of the quality of the growth experience.

While that served China well in coping with the short-term vicissitudes of global shocks, such as the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 and the global crisis of 2008-09, as former Premier Wen Jiabao warned, this approach also led to a steady build-up of imbalances that ultimately threatened the long-term stability and sustainability of the Chinese economy.

China’s new Fifth Generation leadership, headed up by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, seems to have reached a very different conclusion on its macro management strategy of the Chinese economy. They are resisting the timeworn inclination to opt for hyper-growth – GDP-based rebounds in excess of 10% – as the antidote to a shortfall in Chinese economic activity. They correctly view such a response as part of the problem of long simmering imbalances, namely excess resource consumption, environmental degradation and pollution, and widening income inequalities, rather than the solution.

As a result, Premier Li, now the senior manager of the world’s secondlargest economy, has been quite clear in arguing that the balance of China’s macro management needs to shift away from aggressive cyclical stabilization policies toward a more sustainable structural rebalancing. He under-

A levelling out of economic growth in China provides it with the opportunity to pursue a more aggressive strucutral agenda

scored that commitment, along with added emphasis on the imperatives of financial reform, in a recent speech delivered at the “Summer Davos” in Dalian on September 12. His address was long on rhetoric but short on specifics – a deficiency that hopefully will be addressed up the all-important upcoming Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee in November.

In the same sense, some tentative signs of progress on the road to Chinese rebalancing are encouraging.

Growth in services activity (the tertiary sector) is accelerating, and in the first half of 2013 expanded by 8.3% year on year, markedly faster than the combined 7.6% growth of manufacturing and construction (the secondary sector). This could well be the early stage of an important reversal from China’s long-standing growth pattern where services have lagged the traditional growth drivers of manufacturing and construction. Moreover, with services more job-intensive, less reliant on resources and therefore less pollution-prone, and better able to facilitate the employment imperatives of rural-

urban migration and urbanization, they hold considerable promise for a sustainable structural rebalancing.

China’s structural agenda needs more than just services-led growth. It could benefit greatly from new policy initiatives at the November Party sessions. It is vital for the new leadership to use this critical gathering to push ahead in several areas – especially Hukou reform (of the household registration system), liberalization of deposit interest rates following the recent reforms of lending rates and the funding of an inadequate social safety net (i.e., social security and healthcare). These measures are all necessary to temper the excesses of feardriven precautionary saving of Chinese households and stimulate consumer demand.

The cyclical-structural tradeoff introduces a new and important dimension to China’s macro policy strategy. Short-term, or cyclical, growth shortfalls are not to be taken lightly. Should a major shock reoccur – either internal or external – Chinese authorities will undoubtedly be quick

to respond as they have in the past.

But in the face of a more manageable downshift, such as the one of the past couple of years, there is good reason for the economic leadership team to seize the opportunity and move ahead forcefully in addressing China’s structural imperatives.

With the current downshift bottoming out, that opportunity is now at hand. A Chinese economy poised for a modest acceleration back toward the 8% growth zone, provides breathing room for the implementation of a more aggressive structural agenda.

Therein lies one of modern China’s greatest strategic opportunities.

Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of The Next Asia (Wiley 2009) and Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (Yale University Press, forthcoming January 2014).This article originally appeared in the Global Times.

November 2013

21

专栏

大转型 从人口结构变化的大背景来透视经济转型和金融监管 文 | 左学金 上海社会科学院经济研究所所长、研究员

左学金

过

去30年中国发展得

足。另外，现有2亿多儿童，大概三分之二

很好，但面临的资

是农业户籍，农业户籍的小孩分两块：一

另外一个问题，从金融角度值得关注

源 源禀赋的比较优势出现很大

个是留守儿童，一部分是流动儿童。当然

的就是大量的投资。人口结构老龄化，中

变 变化。从最基本的生产者和

还有一部分是跟父母一起在家里的，但数

西部人口外流的趋势比较明显。现在自然

消 消费者来看，目前生育率非

量很少。现在农村劳动力45岁以下几乎全

村减少，过去10年自然村的数量从306万

常 常低，中国平均每对夫妇生

部出来打工，很多是做父母的。对这些儿

个下降到270万个。平均每天200多个自

育 育不到1个半小孩。原来以

童的权益保护和人力资本投资不足。一定

然村被废弃，这样对生态是好的，退耕还

为 为中国会多子多育，而上海

要重视儿童，因为儿童是国家的未来。如

林，接下来很多乡镇、城市化地区也会逐

平 平均每两个人只生育0.8个

果不重视儿童，国家的未来将让人担忧。

步被废弃。人口下降以后，不同地区并不

小孩。人口的零增长很快会

这个问题比较复杂。

一样，由于人口向沿海地区迁移，中西部

到来，10年左右就会到来。接下来会出现

蓝领劳动者的雇佣短期化和派遣化，

人口下降最快，大量投资基础设施、建筑

负增长，人口会老龄化。从中西部到东部

劳动合同法没有真正解决这些问题，蓝领

住房，最后可能没有人住，投资回报就成

迁移的格局不会改变。2009年大量的农民

劳动者的雇佣短期化和派遣化，导致企业

了很大问题。

工从东部返回到中西部，一度认为人口迁

和劳动者对技艺的提高动力不足。

房地产有没有泡沫？有不同看法。

移的方向会逆转。但人口普查发现，常住

大学生创业能力、独立解决问题能力

我个人认为泡沫破灭之前都不是泡沫。从

人口增长最快的还是沿海地区：北京、上

不足，这也是人力资本投资不足的表现。

指标来看，房地产有点过度投资。房价过

海、天津、广东和浙江。有6个省人口出现

每年有30万学生出国，留学生在低龄化，

高还有一个因素，住宅用地批得比较少，

负增长，全在中西部。2亿多农民工聚集在

现在中国是留学生最大的输出国。因此教

城市用地不少，但住宅用地占的比重非常

城市，怎么实现城市化？这也是中央比较

育部门还需要进一步改革。

少。现在土地批租，国土部报告显示，住

关心的问题。第六次人口普查发现增长率 比过去慢了。年龄变化很快，人口总量增 加翻了一番多。但儿童1964年一度是40% 以上，现在是16.6%，可能还要往下降。 老年人一度是3.56%，现在是9%多。

人力资本投资不足 感觉存在一些风险。一个是人力资 本的投资组合风险，再一个是造城运动， 延安、甘肃等都在造城。人口老龄化和社 会保障体制不完善所带来的社保资金和公 共财政的风险，也会涉及到金融部门的风 险。未来的增长主要取决于要素数量和质 量的变动，主要是质量的提升，以及资源 配置的效率。这是未来增长的关键点。 为什么担心对人力资本投资不足？因 为现在儿童数量越来越少，儿童数量少， 投资就少。现在北京、上海儿童在9%以 下。儿童太少，相应的投资肯定就会不

22

未来年轻人将会怎样

November 2013

中西部地区人口外流的趋势比较明显

宅用地的平均价格是工业用地的7倍，商业 用地平均是工业用地的9倍，这是比较悬 殊的价格。但北京、上海住宅用地的价格 就不是工业用地的7倍、9倍，有可能是几 十倍，甚至上百倍。政府为了控制房价， 住宅用地放得太少。现在买房的其实主要 是中青年，国外老年人是卖房子，卖掉大 房，住小房。未来人口老龄化对房地产需 求也会产生很大影响。 房地产市场不能永远涨上去，关键要 软着陆，不能硬着陆，这是时间问题。中 国未来还有一个很大问题，下一代会过得 怎样？下一代会不会比我们有钱？可以看 日本的情况，中国人口变化滞后于日本20 年左右，日本2006年人口出现负增长。麦 肯锡做了很多研究，发现日本30年前35岁 年轻人的储蓄率是20%，今年35岁年轻人 储蓄率是6%，储蓄率大幅下降。 我们这代人经历了过去20年经济的高 速发展，今天的繁荣和资产的膨胀，特别 是房地产的膨胀，现在73%的资产是房地 产。未来的年轻人可能没有这样的机会， 未来年轻人将过得怎样？值得认真思考。 人口老龄化对医疗保险有很大影响， 因为越来越多的老年人会丧失自理。富也 会存在一些问题，比如富了以后劳动力最 贵。现在老年人找几个保姆照顾一下还可

未来人口老龄化对房地产需求也会产生很大影响

以。真正到发达国家老年人躺在床上，要 雇人来照顾，并不一定雇得起。 还是要做些调整，首先是调整政策，

多钱，如何通过理财来提高资金配置的效

以只能通过监管来做，而不能靠自己来

率，未来将会非常重要。

做。现在，严格地说对这个问题要打问 号。实际上很多问题可能不是道德水平低

希望尽快调整生育政策。现在生育率最低 的四个地区全部是华人地区，不是欧美和

防范道德风险

造成的，还有很多影响人们行为的一些制 度、环境等等。

日本。为什么中国人生孩子生得少？中国

中国金融改革是两者并存：一是金融

人太关注对小孩的投资，都是望子成龙，

风险，特别是地方融资平台。另外一个是

同济大学有一个团队专门研究了等红

养育小孩的成本非常高，这是影响生育的

金融抑制，中小企业发展困难，贷款非常

灯的耐心，结果发现中国人等红灯的耐心

主要方面。

难，中小金融机构发展比较缓慢。

超过大多数发达国家的外国人。我们是60

要加大人力资本的投资，现在小孩少

未来到底怎么来控制金融风险？实际

到70秒，但为什么还会乱穿？因为我们的

了，应该实行12年制义务教育，很多发达

上自贸区一方面是改革开放，一方面适当

红灯实在太长了。世博会表明，中国人排

国家早就实行了。现在的问题是，增加对

地控制风险。从上而下加强监管，同时加

队非常守纪律，非常耐心，排很多馆8个小

农民工子女教育的投入，中央和地方共同

强相关方面防范风险的内在激励，或者是

时、9个小时，超乎想象。

承担比较好。而且劳动力市场也要改革。

减少他们制造金融风险的道德风险。

中国近代史上和钱庄打交道的客户都

实际上人口红利快要终结了。第二

过去比较强调怎么从上而下加强监

非常讲信用，没有不讲信用的。道理很简

次人口红利有两个版本，一个是加大对人

管。我先讨论一个问题：现在普遍说中国

单，如果不讲信用，在社会上就没法混。

力资本的投资。而理财很重要，掌握了很

人道德水准特别低，中国人不讲信用，所

这个环境是让不讲信用的人没法混，生

November 2013

23

专栏

通过理财来提高资金配置的效率在未来相当重要

优势要从蓝领工人转向灰领和白领工人。

家主导，我们要挤进去不是容易的事情，

我认为，第一，制度环境非常重要。

当然这种转型并不容易，需要很好的设

会面临更多的竞争。一定要在改革开放的

要鼓励重道德讲信用的行为，而不是不讲

计，金融业要发展也需要很多金融业的专

背景下积极地参与经济全球化，需要更多

道德、不讲信用的行为。制度设计不仅是

才、高端人才。转型并不容易，但今后的

各种不同形式的国际合作。中央在上海

监管，制度设计要让老实人不吃亏，让滑

趋势一定是转型。

设立自贸区，目标非常明确：中国要进一

意没法做。这值得思考。

头的人占不到便宜。大家内心不愿意违 规，不愿意不讲信用，不愿意违约。

步参与新一轮的经济全球化，需要从改革 做起。

制度设计本身要合理，要权衡各方面

是价值链的高端。看到一个数据，如果按

在这种情况下，无论是未来中国的

的要求，比如说利润和风险要平衡，不能

增加值对国际贸易进行核算，中国国际贸

FDI，还是走出去对外投资，会更多地采

过度地强调风险，不讲效率。要平衡各方

易的80%由跨国公司主导，中国加工制造

取并购方式。这方面要做更多研究和探

面的利益，并且努力减少信息不对称。减

是跨国公司全球生产布局的低端布局。这

索，要有更多的鼓励政策。并购可以带动

少道德风险。有一个很典型的例子，某某

是过去30年大致的情况。

金融市场，带动银行，带动专业服务。从

国有银行有一个某某省的分行拼命地制造

为什么能做到这一步？因为这个价

总趋势来看，发达国家无论是金额还是项

坏账，因为银行是一级法人，用银行的贷

值链的加工制造与研发设计、市场营销在

目占的比重都是下降的，发展中国家是上

款帮助了地方企业的发展，这就属于道德

空间上容易分割。在美国研发设计，在美

升的。从未来趋势来看，中国经济转型可

风险。

国营销，比较容易分割，所以那时更多采

能会使这个趋势加重。也就是说，今后从

取绿地投资的模式。中国企业走出去，原

全球的角度来看，参与并购的比重会进一

并购与转型

24

如果把价值链分成微笑曲线的研发设 计、加工制造和营销管理三个环节，两端

来的模式主要是投资资源。经济转型说到

步增加。建设金融中心一定要把视野放到

经济转型和并购有什么关系？今后的

底就是要从价值链的低端向两端走，在接

企业并购中来，这是上海建设国际金融中

优势可能逐步地从劳动密集型的制造链，

近全球化的进程中，要更多地参与研发

心的重要内容。

转向资金密集的服务链。归根到底，资源

设计和市场营销。当然这原来是发达国

November 2013

（根据作者近期的演讲整理）

专访

HSBC汇丰冠军赛永久落户上海 专访-Grant Slack - IMG高尔夫亚太区高级副总裁

汇丰冠军赛宣布永久落户上海是 什么原因？

容之强可称亚洲之最，这在以前是难以置 信的。八年来汇丰冠军赛一直努力把最好

汇 丰 银 行 的 英 文 全 称

的比赛呈现给观众，为球员创造最好的竞

是“HONGKONG SHANGHAI BANK COR-

赛环境，因而得到各方面的支持，八年来

PORATION ”，上海对于汇丰银行来说不

中国乃至亚洲高尔夫的格局有了很大的变

仅代表这一个潜力无限的市场，更有着重

化，这项运动的发展和推广都取得长足进

要的历史意义。很久以来上海一直是一座

展，汇丰冠军赛无疑在此当中起到了催化

充满魅力的国际大都市，无论在哪个时

剂的作用，对此我们也深感欣慰。

代，许多传奇都在上海诞生。现在的上

汇丰冠军赛对中国球员准备奥运 会有帮助吗？有什么帮助？

海，是中国，也将是亚洲的金融和商业中 心，没有哪一座城市比上海更能够代表中 国的实力和潜力。上海也是也一座有远

中国有句古话，“知己知彼，百战百

见、敢实践的城市，汇丰冠军赛选择上海

胜”，汇丰冠军赛为中国选手搭建了一个

作为永久的举办城市，看中的就是这座城

平台，和世界最高水平的球员同场竞技，

市所具有的热诚、活力、远见和抱负，

势必使选手们对自身的竞技水准有更清楚

这一切让上海拥有巨大的、无可比拟的吸

的认识，对于竞赛心理素质也有所帮助。

引力。 报告结果，超过三分之一的中国受访者的

汇丰冠军赛对当地经济有何促进 作用？ 高尔夫旅游业已经发展成为一个成功 的商业市场。由于高尔夫旅行家们在旅途

家庭年收入都超过30万人民币 • 大多数 (62.9%) 受访者都为男性观 众。半数以上 (64.2%) 的受访者都是25岁至

44岁之间，平均年龄为37.4岁。 • 87%的受访者为中国人，主要 (68%)

中购买不同的商品和服务，推动不止一个 商业市场的繁荣，例如酒店，餐厅，零售

来自上海观看赛事。 • 大部分 (74%) 受访者都有一份全职工

商和高尔夫设备业等等。相关调查报告显 示，高尔夫打球人群频繁的日常消费至少

汇丰冠军赛举办多年以来，您从 中国观众身上看到了什么变化？ 从中国球员身上有看到了什么变 化？ 八年来观众的观赛礼仪有了很大进 步，尽管还是有在场上打电话、在球员开 球时拍照的情形，但同八年前相比，已经 少了很多。同时观众之间也会相互督促并 善意提醒。

作。

将普通休闲旅游业的水平翻了至少一番。

• 56.5% 的受访者都打高尔夫（相比

另外观众对高尔夫选手的认识也更

汇丰冠军赛也是如此，我们之前的调查

2008 年的 71.8% 有所降低），意味着近年

深入，以前很多观众只追一两位球星，但

数据显示有近三分之一观众是外地来沪观

的汇丰冠军赛吸引了更多不同社会背景的

是现在很多选手对于中国观众来说都不陌

赛的。

人群，也产生了更多对非高尔夫打球人群

生，尤其是新晋的年轻球员，可见大家对

的激烈效应。

高尔夫运动的关注程度有很大提升。

汇丰冠军赛观众人数的构成？其 中包括年龄构成，收入构成？ • 受访者认为比赛是代表着世界知名 高尔夫球员汇聚一堂的一流赛事，所有的

• 在所有受访者中，72.9%都拥有私家

从球员的角度来说，他们对于上海之 行的态度应该是越来越轻松了，八年前我

车。 • 59.8%的受访者在观赛其间都选择在 上海的五星级酒店住宿。

们常常会看到球员带着大大小小的行李前 来中国参赛，以备不时之需，但是现在随 着他们对上海的熟悉程度越来越高，携带

成功人士都不应该错过。同时他们会因为

汇丰冠军赛给上海，给中国带来 的最大影响是什么？

的行李也越来越少。而且以前通常都是球

• 总体来说，大部分受访者都有较高

今年的汇丰冠军赛，全球排名前50位

同前来上海，一同欣赏和感受这座充满魅

的家庭年收入水平。据2009年的观众调查

的球员中至少有 42名将前来上海参赛，阵

赞助商与赛事的关联，更有兴趣倾向于使 用赞助商的服务和产品

员单身备战，现在他们更愿意携家带小一 力的东方城市。

November 2013

25

COLUMN

Moving past bling Chinese shoppers begin to demonstrate the art of subtlety in their consumption of luxury.

Mark Bosse explains

C

hinese consumers seem to have an insatiable appetite for high-end a goods.

According to varig ous o reports, the country is i set to become the biggest luxury market in g Mark Bosse the world. Continued t and accelerated growth of the number of very wealthy households with annual disposable income of about US$163,000 (RMB 1 million) and middle-class households above US$8,170 should mean brisk business for big brands. LVMH and PPR, the respective owners of Louis Vuitton and Gucci, must take a lot of pleasure in seeing their products adorning affluent Chinese shoppers across the country.

However, some status-conscious consumers have begun to shun flashy brands in favor of more nuanced luxury; handbags with huge labels are no longer “in”. Is the market simply moving up the quality totem or has consumer motivation changed?

One driver of luxury spending to date has been its convenient application as a means of gaining “face”.

Face is a dual concept in Chinese culture that encompasses an individual’s moral character and reputation as well as the prestige gained from wealth, position or power. This has been nowhere more apparent than in the ostentatious displays of wealth by rich

26

November 2013

government officials, eager to fortify their social standing.

Such Chinese consumption habits are starting to change. Affluent individuals are seeking out more refined luxury items; meanwhile, the Communist Party has launched a clampdown on public displays of wealth by officials. China’s next luxury trends will be heavily influenced by a small demographic of “tenured” shoppers (those who purchased their first luxury product more than 10 years ago) who are establishing a new protocol for China’s elite based on discretion, sophistication and exclusivity. These consumers increasingly prefer low-key luxury to conventional status symbols. They enjoy grand pianos and antique cars, and brands that emphasize craftsmanship like Bottega Veneta and Breguet.

In fact, in a recent study by McKinsey, over half of this group agreed that “showing off luxury goods is in bad taste”, a noticeable increase from only 37% in 2010. As this new value system trickles down, flashy displays of wealth may actually cause consumers to lose, rather than gain, face.

The trend towards “stealth wealth” or “‘post-luxury’ luxury” embodied by these new consumer preferences underscores a key truth about modern-day China: There is hardly a coherent paradigm of success because the social status hierarchy is still under construction. In such an environment,

people’s values must evolve to keep pace with consumerism, and there are several ways this can occur.

New values may be propagated from the top down, as with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s crackdown on lavish spending, or absorbed from outside influences, which likely also influenced the recent trends in luxury consumption. Companies play a role as well in articulating social values by asserting that their products are essential to the consumer’s ideal life. Celebrity sponsorship and lifestyle branding all contribute to this end.

In fact, marketers 100 years ago relied on similar strategies to stimulate Chinese demand for Western goods and establish a new code of behavior related to consumption. Through aggressive advertising, Western companies helped cultivate the very notion that the acquisition of material goods is both an essential part of modern life and an affirmation of one’s social standing, a way to gain face.

That is not to say that the West induced a new desire for material things; these impulses have existed in Chinese society since its inception. What they did do, however, was bring these yearnings into the realm of social acceptability. Outward displays of one’s material possessions were no longer frowned upon. On the contrary, they were exceedingly overt so as to attract the attention and respect of

wealthy foreigners. Chinese sought to emulate their lifestyles and purchase products that had social or symbolic relevance in Western culture because, in the era of imperialism, the West set the standard of success.

In today’s China, where the type of materialism marketers once encouraged is losing its cache, the affluent elite must establish their own conventions related to luxury consumption. They have fewer and more eclectic role models than their predecessors, allowing for more autonomy and experimentation.

They want comprehensive luxury lifestyles instead of simple luxury goods.

A variety of industries have the potential to benefit from such a shift.

Consumers are no less concerned with status and face than before. Quite the opposite: They have witnessed the damaging effects of conspicuous consumption on one’s reputation.

In particular, the health and wellness sector should begin to see accelerated growth as Chinese pay greater attention to the condition of their bodies. Research by nutritional industry magazine Nutraceuticals World revealed that over 40% of women in urban China and Hong Kong consider themselves to be overweight.

High-end lines of cosmetic and nutritional products allow consumers to indulge while investing in their physical wellbeing. Health related services like fitness clubs are experiencing double-digit growth while sales of nutraceuticals such as multivitamins, energy products and weight loss aids are advancing profits.

Wellness tourism, which grew by 12% last year in China, has strong appeal for consumers who prefer

The days of conspicuous luxury may be coming to an end as consumers opt for something more subtle

understated luxuries. A recent study by research house McCann Truth Central found that today’s consumers generally understand wellness as something intangible and holistic, and a particularly high number of Chinese consumers want support in maintaining a healthy lifestyle.

Upscale wellness tours have done brisk business with wealthy Chinese clients. Usually these tours incorporate forms of physical therapy, non-traditional treatments and simple relaxation in immaculate surroundings. Considering that the number of Chinese travelling abroad has increased by nearly 20% since 2008, international wellness and spa destinations are forecast to benefit from a steady influx of Chinese.

The penchant for subtle luxury among China’s wealthiest consumers will trigger a redistribution of spending across a variety of categories in addition to health, beauty and travel.

Still, new luxury consumers will continue to appreciate the big brand names. The long-term effects of the crackdown on conspicuous luxury are

also unclear, and will probably not be reason enough to deter these budding aspirants from their indulgences.

But over time even China’s emerging affluent classes in interior cities will move beyond grand displays of wealth to something more refined. Their habits will become more mature, like those of their peers on the east coast who grew rich first – and who themselves followed the lead of consumers in places like Japan, where rapid economic growth and higher disposable incomes generated a similar phenomenon.

As this trend progresses, tenured luxury shoppers will be increasingly influential in shaping the values and culture of China’s high society towards more refined habits. For marketers looking to influence the next trend in Chinese high-end consumption, they are a good place to start.

Mark Bosse was a 2012-2013 Fulbright Research Scholar based in Tianjin. He resides in New York City

November 2013

27

投资新浪潮 搜寻最具投资价值的高成长产业

P29 吸金潮 P36 朝阳产业生机无限 P42 私募基金日新月异

吸金潮 高成长性的互联网产业吸引着资本的眼球 文 | 晗军

互

联网行业的投资与并购依然引人注

各项申请银行牌照的前期准备工作，预计

目。支付宝的母公司浙江阿里巴巴

将在年内正式向监管层申请银行牌照，并

电子商务有限公司于10月9日宣布，将出

有望在众多民营银行申请者中率先获批。

资11.8亿元认购天弘基金，完成后占其股

中关村银行将由中关村互联网金融协会的

本的51%。艾瑞咨询分析师王维东认为，

部分成员单位发起和运作，同时还有多家

在该交易完成后，阿里在整体金融业务层

民营企业和民营资本参与其中。

面的渗透也同样将进一步深入。整体业务

清科研究中心分析师姬利认为，互

将涵盖支付、小贷、保险、担保、基金、

联网企业涉足银行的优势主要在于突破时

理财产品销售和个人信用消费等层面。

间与空间的限制，具体优势体现在：强大

清科研究中心数据显示，今年上半年

安全的在线平台，确保流程简单、快捷、

互联网行业的大额并购较往常更多，包括

高效、可靠、无纸化，实现不间断业务受

阿里巴巴5.86亿美元并购新浪微博，浙报

理；互联网银行省去物理网点，并降低人

传媒34.9亿人民币收购边锋网络和浩方，

力资源等成本，与传统银行相比，具有较

百度3.7亿美元并购PPS等；而近期互联

强的竞争优势；以互联网精神完成金融

网巨头阿里巴巴和百度频频出手，导致移

服务，将实现共享、透明、开放的客户体

动互联网和网络视频行业备受关注，并引

验。互联网银行的出现将为目前银行业态

发业界广泛猜想和讨论。

注入创新，并给银行业带来巨大的“鲶鱼

高成长性互联网产业吸引着资本的眼

效应”。

球。不仅是互联网三大巨头，很多传统媒

“互联网银行也面临相当多问题，互

体公司也尝到了收购互联网和移动互联网

联网只是金融机构开展业务的一种手段而

的甜头。互联网的并购浪潮更加剧烈，阿

非核心竞争力，风险管理才是关键所在，

里巴巴、腾讯、百度三大巨头给创业者和

联网银行本质上仍是银行，需要遵守银行

VC创造了更多的机会。

的游戏规则。” 姬利表示。互联网企业进 入银行业在如何开户、吸存等方面仍存在

网络银行呼之欲出

诸多问题，落实到具体条款或需要修改相

各路民间资本对成立民营银行跃跃欲

关法律法规，难度较大，而以创新和用户

试，尤其是阿里巴巴、苏宁、腾讯、百度

体验为优势的互联网企业，如果因设立银

等互联网“土豪”们。据消息称，各互联

行被纳入严格的金融监管，互联网金融属

网龙头企业已向监管部门递交了银行牌照

性所独有的创新则可能被遏制。

申请，“阿里银行”“苏宁银行”“京东

易宝支付CEO及共同创始人唐彬认

银行”“腾讯银行”等互联网银行似已呼

为，互联网金融最核心的问题在于风险控

之欲出。

制，而风险控制的核心问题是信息问题。

设立互联网银行并非互联网巨头们的 专利，中关村银行作为服务中关村国家自

互联网带来了信息大爆炸，金融风险因此 可以得到更低成本和更高效的管控。

主创新示范区的科技银行，未来定位偏向

好贷网创始人兼总裁李明顺表示，互

网络银行，将主要为中关村区内的创业企

联网可能会创造新的体验，互联网用户可

业和小微企业提供各类融资服务。目前，

以进入到这个行业来，同时让金融行业更

中关村银行正在开展包括工商注册在内的

加关注用户，关注用户的体验和满意

November 2013

29

封面故事

度。李明顺认为，全新的互联网金融会

2011Q1-2013Q2 中国移动互联网市场规模

把以前的界限打破，未来可能不会再有传 统金融。唐彬指出，风投最喜欢投资三类

300

互联网金融企业，一是利用互联网模式打 破原有的信息不对称和原有垄断的企业； 二是利用大数据降低交易成本，或者提高

250

2.6% 22.6%

60.1%

4 7% 14.7%

14 1% 14.1%

88.8%

20 4% 20.4%

116.1% 112.7% 100.7% 103.6%

26.4%

17 2% 17.2%

21 2% 21.2%

18 5% 18.5%

86.1%

10 6% 10.6%

71.4%

7 9% 7.9%

71.4% 21.2 21.2% 241.9

交易效率的企业；三是利用一些新模式、 新产品覆盖传统金融无法覆盖的金融市场

199.5

200

184.9

的企业。

移动互联高速发展

167.2

150

141.1

移动互联网进入高速发展期，巨大 的成长潜力吸引大量资本进入，投资活跃

116.4 99.4

100

度保持上升，成为最大的投资热点。据清

78.6 65.3

科私募通数据统计，去年至今年上半年， 移动互联网行业初创期投资案例数为118

57.2

50

起，披露投资金额3.74亿美元；扩张期投 资案例数29起，披露投资金额1.63亿美 元。 艾瑞咨询数据显示，今年第二季度中 国移动互联网市场规模达到241.9亿元， 同比增速71.4%，移动互联网经过两年的 沉淀和积累，市场正朝向理性健康的方向

0

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

2011Q4 2012Q1

移动互联网市场规模（亿元）

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4 2013Q1e 2013Q2e

环比增长率（%）

同比增长率（%）

注释：中国移动互联网市场规模包括移动增值、移动购物、移动营销、移动搜索、移动游戏等细分 领域市场规模总和；从2012Q2开始，移动购物统计的市场规模为营收规模；从2013Q1开始，移动 游戏统计的市场规模为企业营收规模；从2014Q4开始，移动互联网市场规模包括手机和平板电脑 两类移动设备上创造的市场规模总和。 来源：根据企业公开财报、行业访谈及艾瑞统计预测模型估算，仅供参考。

发展，移动互联网商业化价值逐渐凸显。 艾瑞分析师王影认为，今年是移动互

@2013 iResearch .inc

iResearch

联网市场发展的关键一年，互联网巨头通 过投资并购等手段逐渐补齐自身短板，延

讯投资将加速手机游戏投资布局，相比较

联网变革之后的第三次IT浪潮。2010年，

续PC优势，完成了移动端的战略布局，移

之前的投资手法，会更加专注早期投资。

中国政府将云计算列入国家重点扶持的战

动互联网创业公司在维持自身发展的同时

全球游戏市场持续增长，手机游戏成为最

略性新兴产业，云计算产业在政府大力扶

也将继续面临与互联网巨头的竞争，移动

主要的增长引擎，中国的在线游戏和移动

持下，逐步从概念走向落地。据清科研究

领域成为新的竞争战场。第二季度，移动

游戏贡献了全世界最大的比例，移动游戏

中心数据，自2007-2011年，中国云计

互联网市场在保持高速增长的同时，移动

不管在欧美、日本和中国，这一两年都是

算产业VC/PE投资活跃度稳中有升，去年

端的商业价值和变现方式开始逐渐凸显。

最好的增长局面。全球的增长是32%，

在宏观经济环境等因素影响下有所减缓。

广告主特别是品牌广告主逐步重视移动广

他相信中国的增长数据今年至少是50%-

云计算作为具有颠覆性意义的新兴产业，

告的价值，不断尝试投入并逐渐建立移动

100%。在手游领域，2010年出现超过千

未来发展潜力巨大、影响深远，准确判断

广告预算。另外，移动搜索广告价值也受

万的产品，去年出现了超过3000万的产

行业发展现状和趋势对投资机构及行业从

到广告主的进一步认可，用户刚性搜索需

品，现在已经有超过5000万的产品，今年

业者都至关重要。基于此，清科研究中心

求刺激移动搜索流量持续增长，虽然目前

单品可能会接近或突破一个亿。手游行业

推出《2013年中国云计算产业投资研究报

尚处于流量变现的初创期，但本季度货币

处在快速上升阶段，腾讯扮演了全平台的

告》，就中国云计算产业政策环境、产业

化表现良好，移动搜索市场得到进一步发

角色，既是最大的游戏运营商，也在积极

链、商业模式和产业投资情况等进行全面

展。王影认为，未来各公司将持续投入在

地投资布局，希望能够拓展市场，挖掘出

分析，对行业发展趋势和存在投资机会作

商业模式和流量变现的探索中，预计下半

最好的游戏开发商。

出判断。 多项政策扶持云计算产业，试点城市

年市场将进一步清晰。 腾讯科技投资并购部助理总经理、腾 讯产业基金执行董事李朝晖表示，今年腾

30

November 2013

云计算备受关注 云计算被看作继个人计算机变革、互

为行业初期发展提供支持。2010年，中国 政府将云计算产业列入国家重点培育和发

展的战略性新兴产业，工信部和国家发改 委联合发布了开展云计算服务创新发展试 点的通知，确定在北京、上海、深圳、杭 州、无锡等五个城市先行开展云计算服务 创新发展试点示范工作。2011年，发改委 设立了云计算专项基金，首批资金已陆续 下拨到北京、上海、深圳、杭州、无锡5 个试点城市的15个示范项目，包括百度、 联想、华东电脑、华胜天成等15家牵头企 业已陆续获得资金扶持。试点城市的设立 为中国云计算产业发展初期提供了巨大动 力。2012年，通信、互联网等行业“十二

资本青睐高成长性的行业

五”规划出台，多方面对云计算发展工作 进行部署，并将物联网和云计算工程作为

高速发展。据清科研究中心测算，中国云

行业投资规模达到历年最高，一方面受到

中国“十二五”发展的二十项重点工程之

计算服务市场规模正以每年50%的速度增

整个PE/VC市场影响，另一方面受到云计

一。

长。到“十二五”末，中国云计算服务市

算2010年被列入国家战略性新兴产业，到

场规模将达到136.69亿美元。

2011年相关领域的企业开始涌现，投资机

中国云计算产业尚处发展初期，规模 小、增速快、潜力大。由于市场规模较小

云计算投资去年放缓，以A轮投资为

构也开始更加关注此类企业。去年，中国

且市场范围界定并不明确，无权威机构进

主。自2007年云计算在中国开始有所发

宏观经济形势下滑严重，投资机构对国内

行统计。据Gartner测算，2011年全球云

展，云计算企业逐渐受到投资机构青睐。

市场信心不足，投资案例数和投资规模都

计算服务市场规模约为900亿美元，中国

从投资案例数看，2009-2011年逐年上

出现大幅下降。

云计算服务市场规模仅占不到3%，约为

升，2011年有42个云计算投资案例。从已

云计算将逐步受到资本市场更多关

27亿美元。相比美国、欧洲及日本地区，

披露投资金额看，2009年投资规模最低，

注，大数据、城镇化等因素将为产业带来

中国信息技术发展水较低。国内中小企业

虽案例数较上年有所增长，但投资规模下

更多机遇。大数据时代到来，将加快云计

仍有相当一部分没有公司网站，企业信息

降近2/3。清科研究中心分析师徐志鹏认

算应用模式的发展，催生更多市场需求。

化水平还较低。

为，原因在于：存在未披露部分；2009年

在此背景下，硬件、软件、集成、运营、

云计算服务市场规模总体较小，但

在全球金融危机背景下，投资机构相对谨

内容服务等领域的主要厂商纷纷借势转型

潜在的庞大市场需求，推动着云计算产业

慎，单笔投资规模都较小。2011年云计算

发展，基于已有的产品及技术优势，推出 云计算服务及解决方案，这使云计算产业

2011-2015年中国云计算服务市场规模预测

链得以构建，以软硬件制造商、基础设施

160.00

服务商、云计算服务提供商及相关支持服 136.69

140.00

成。新一届政府对城镇化提出了明确要

120.00

求，为智慧城市建设指明了方向，交通

100.00

云、政务云、教育云等将推动公共云落

91.13

地。另外中小企业庞大的信息化需求将给

80.00

云计算产业提供广阔发展空间，推动行业

60.75

60.00 40.00

务提供商构成的云计算生态系统加速形

发展驱动力从政府扶持转向市场需求。

40.50

中国云计算服务市场规模目前只占全

27.00

球的3%左右，美国一家独占60%的市场

20.00

份额。徐志鹏表示，随着中国云计算产业

0.00 2011年

2012 年E

2013 年F

市场规模 （亿美元） 来源：Gartner，清科研究中心整理2013

2014 年F

2015 年F

发展，云计算服务市场规模将以年均50% 的速度增长；预计到2015年中国云计算服 务市场规模将达到136.69亿美元，在全球 的市场份额也将有所上升。

November 2013

31

Clean profits, China’s dirty skies

L

ooking to the clouds for signs of what the future will bring is an activity as old as humanity itself.

Many of the ancient world’s greatest thinkers turned skywards for inspiration.

Modern day investors peering up from their top floor offices in Beijing today might well be doing the same.

The view will startle them: An “airpocalypse” – smog on an unimaginably bad scale – is once again descending on cities in northern China, as it did last winter.

Pollution in China is not a new phenomenon, nor is it confined to the air. But it is gaining ever more attention from an increasingly informed and anxious public that wants answers.

For those who are commercially minded, however, it presents a huge opportunity for profit.

Investing in the environment was once pithily dismissed as loss-creating. That view has now been flipped around. “You don’t necessarily have to give up returns in doing this because they in themselves are very good investments,” said David Li, an investment manager at London-based fund Impax that has about US$3 billion under management.

Dirty bounty Pollution is clearly a big problem.

According to an official assessment, the cost of environmental degradation in China in 2010 was about US$230 billion (RMB1.54 trillion), or 3.5% of GDP. Fixing this will be a costly and long-term endeavor.

“This is something that is going to have to change over 10 years, not one to two years, so instant gratifica-

tion is not something you are going to see,” said Peggy Liu, chairperson of Shanghai-based NGO Joint US-China Collaboration on Clean Energy and an expert in clean energy.

The official response has been to draft endless policies and pledge hundreds of billions of yuan to clean up rivers, decontaminate soil, curb emissions and dispose of waste. There are now thousands of specialist companies competing to deploy their products and services.

In July this year, a major policy announcement threw huge support underneath these enterprises that will serve to stimulate further investment and innovation. The State Council announced that it would turn “environmental protection” into a key economic pillar by 2015. “Pillar” industries are those that the government wants to underpin economic growth and include auto and aviation.

Green profits Spotting likely winners in a sector in which many companies seemingly offer the same products and services isn’t easy. The trick is to understand whether they are genuinely driven by making a difference or whether they are just trying to make something more cheaply than competitors.

“The clean tech companies and the companies that are doing well in that sector actually start from the basis of ‘we’ve got a product of service that has environmental benefits’ and also has an economic case as well,” said John O’Brien, founder and managing director of Sino Cleantech, a firm that is focused on facilitating investment in clean tech in China.

November 2013

33

COVER STORY

Sino Cleantech operates the China Cleantech Index, which tracks 150 Chinese clean energy companies listed around the world. It has significantly outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and MSCI World Index over the past 12 months, according to its latest monthly report.

Each sub-sector comes with its own merits. Waste and environmental services are the best performers within the China Cleantech Index, partly because of the huge demand in China. “There are big contracts and clearing up all the mess that’s there and the environmental problems so they have a stronger business case behind them,” O’Brien told China Economic Review.

Looking ahead, O’Brien picks energy storage as having the biggest growth potential. Global demand for products that can safely and efficiently store electricity is surging as new energy sources become connected to power grids. “Energy storage is going to have a similar trajectory to solar over the next few years as solar has had over the past few years.”

David Li is also bullish on the opportunities. He says the Impax Asian Environmental Markets Fund, in which Chinese firms make up onethird of the portfolio, is focused on delivering returns to investors that surpass those offered by the equity market in general. In addition to green plays such as solar the fund seeks out broader sectors that will benefit from environmental policies.

“We’re talking about the supply of energy but what about the use of energy? Energy efficiency is the other side of the coin that most people don’t look at and that’s where we find compa-

34

November 2013

Record levels of pollution englufled parts of northern China in October

nies a little less covered by the sell-side research and the media,” said Li. One example is energy efficiency.

Few properties in China are built with any kind of effective insulation. This is slowly improving as the government demands smarter, less intensive use of energy. Impax holds a position in Xinyi Glass (0868.HKG), a maker of lowemission glass that’s been widely adopted in high end commercial buildings and some luxury residential projects.

Cleaner skies Perhaps the most immediate opportunity lies in air quality. Over the past five years armies of engineers from specialist companies have scaled towers at coal power plants to install equipment that scrubs emissions

through processes known as desulfurization and denitrification.

As China raises emissions standards, factories across the entire industrial sector will likely be obliged to have such facilities, said Alvin Lin, China Climate and Energy Policy Director with the Natural Resources Defense Council in Beijing. In addition, there is going to be a greater need for monitoring equipment to ensure compliance with new standards.

Companies including Guodian Tech & Environment (1296.HKG) and Boer Power (1685.HKG) are well placed to benefit from this, according to a thematic report on China pollution stocks prepared by Macquarie analysts earlier this year titled “Beautiful China.”

But China has been trying to cut coal consumption for years and the fuel still accounts for some 70% of its energy mix. Moreover, experts say many emissions plans lack clarity and ensuring that they are being adhered to is a challenging task.

“China has quite good power plant emissions standards but are they really being monitored, are they being enforced and are violators being punished? Without those things, it’s hard to drive the market for pollution removal equipment,” said Alvin Lin.

Genuine will?

The size and speed of market growth is intractably linked to state policy. Beijing has pledged huge sums of money

to tackle problems, yet actual action is often slow to materialize.

“Some of these billions translate indeed into opportunities, mostly for large scale municipal and industrial projects and utilities themselves… but as far as I know a large portion of the publicized amount remain unspent,” said Nicolas Froissart, managing partner at Ecosource, a Shanghai-based energy services and energy performance products company.

Still, Froissart is hoping that the government will continue to roll out environmental protection policies that could create more demand for the products and services his firm offers.

In order to get more business, and therefore unlock more state funds,

companies operating in this field need to better address the immediate needs of local governments by providing complete solutions that are financially viable and can be implemented now, according to Peggy Liu, whose organization trains local and central government officials in environmental matters.

Western investors have long thought that local officials drag their feet on dealing with environmental problems. This isn’t necessarily the case. Mostly they require the right incentives to do something. “It’s not that they are reluctant to implement them [solutions], it’s that there is a need to give them solutions that make sense for them to implement.”

November 2013

35

封面故事

朝阳产业生机无限 探索医药健康产业未来的投资机会 文 | 晗剑

国内医疗机构卫生人员的数量和质量仍有待提高

36

中

国新医改进入第五个年头，医疗

6.16%，卫生人员只有12.34%；从医生来

健康产业进入深化改革的攻坚阶

看，私营机构只占3.05%。从投资者和企业

段，面临着诸多挑战。中国医疗卫生服务

家角度来看，还有很大的发展空间。

高的年份。 清科研究中心分析师徐志鹏预计，随 着医改的进一步深化，政府投入的加大、医

没有跟上经济发展速度。从医疗卫生机构

医疗服务需求巨大，医疗健康产业极

保覆盖人群的增加以及人口城镇化、老龄

数量增长情况看，2011年医疗卫生机构

具潜力。清科研究中心数据显示，医疗健康

化，医疗服务市场容量将持续扩大，民间资

有95.44万家，还不及1985年的97.85万

行业投资热度保持上升态势，2011年投资金

本将更多更深入地参与到医疗卫生体制改革

家。医疗机构专业的卫生人员数量有所增

额更是创下历史新高，投资金额达41.37亿

中，在推动医疗服务行业发展的同时获得丰

长，但相比发达国家仍有较大差距。2011

美元，较前三年投资金额总和还多。去年，

厚回报。

年，中国每万人拥有15.03名医生和16.69

国内外宏观经济形式低迷，但医疗健康行业

名护士，而美国每万人拥有医护人员水平

投资案例数仍保持增长，达到188起，显示

为26.72名医生和98.15名护士。

新医改带来新机遇

出医疗健康行业对资本的强大吸引力。自

新医改已经有了充分的实践，取得了

公立医院改革成重点，筹资机制发生

2009年国家提出新医改相关政策，医疗服务

一定成果。深圳市源政投资发展有限公司董

了变化，随着民营资本的不断介入，民营医

行业投资潜力显现，民间资本在医疗领域活

事长杨向阳认为，医改是很难的事，动不动

疗机构过渡注重短期投资效益的问题凸现。

跃度有所上升。去年，医疗服务领域投资案

就说改革进入深水区。他的理解，所谓深

卫生部数据显示，中国医疗服务机构94.8%

例18起，已披露投资案例17起，投资金额

水区就是要触动很多人的利益。医疗健康产

床位是非营利的，其中私营机构床位只占

213.47百万美元，是过去五年投资活跃度最

业的目的是让民众能够享受到良好的医疗服

November 2013

务，并且是在收入水平能够承受的情况下，

2008-2012年中国医疗健康行业投资情况

享受到应有的医疗服务。这是医改的目标。 现有的医院体制对医生的收入、待遇是非常 不公平的，所以一定要改革。将来医院会出 现多元化。

4500 4000

IDG资本合伙人章苏阳认为，对于投

3500

资人而言，医疗健康领域既有公共产品的特

3000

征，也有私人产品的特征。医疗行业需要国

2500

家进行一些管制和限制，以保证公平。IDG

2000

资本在医疗健康领域投了十七八个项目，有

1500

5家已经上市，其中有两家已完全退出，都

1000

是被兼并。“我们挺看好这个行业，希望能 够与同行和企业家合作。”他说道。 怡德医疗投资管理集团董事长周大为

4,136.63

500

200 188

160

158

140

132

120 1,898.8 1,898.87

60

100 80

1,303.47 53 467.76

180

60 40

425.17

20

0

0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

介绍道，40年前台湾医疗服务量的80%是公 投资金额（US$M）

立医院，私立只有20%，现在台湾医疗服务 量76%是非公医院。大陆现在的数据，公立 医院占医疗服务量92%，民营只有8%。他

案例数

来源：私募通 2013

认为，这说明该行业的未来将会很光明。 杨向阳认为会出现几个必然变化：医

医疗行业的发展。未来医疗制造领域及医疗

来越多。他认为中国人的创新精神并不比国

院数量一定会增加，医院性质一定会改变，

流通领域行业集中度提升，企业面临的竞争

外差。

会多元化，不会都是国有。创业者、投资者

更加激烈，走差异化道路是最好的选择。

是市场机制。杨向阳说道：“在中国如果做

可以从变化中发现机会。还有就是收入与投 入变化，将这些问题解决好以后，医改才能

创新是需要奖励的，这种奖励其实就

创新与核心技术

一个创新药出来，需不需要去做大力推广？

够成功。现在的问题是牵扯到了利益。他还

医药、医疗器械，医疗服务领域都有

需不需要利益再分配？还是需要。在创新药

表示，不管是从投资者还是从创业者角度，

很多人在创新。另一方面，国内的行业格局

做出来之前，可能需要8到10年的时间，期

都应该对医生给予理解和包容。

还是“小多散”，而跨国企业在一些核心药

间已经拿到了一期临床的结果，这样能够融

品领域的中国市场份额，在过去5到10年并

到资金，能够上市吗？不能。所以这个链条

没有下降，在某些领域还是上升的。

是不存在的。”他总结出两条：一个是产品

怎么才能将医疗卫生做得更好？北京 傲锐东源生物科技有限公司董事长何为无上 世纪80年代就去了美国，一直在医院工作，

何为无认为还是奖励机制的问题。

市场不支持，另一个是资本市场不支持。产

刚到美国时的第一个感觉是美国的医疗服务

“我很理解投资人的心情。他们之所以愿意

品市场和资本市场不支持的行业，怎么进行

确实非常好，就像五星级宾馆，而且医生都

把钱投入到基金里，是因为基金的回报率比

创新？

很谦虚，对病人都很尊重。20多年来他经常

买美国债券的回报率高。如果社会对某一产

杨向阳1998年就开始在中国做创新，

回国，看到中国的医疗也在多元化，很多投

业的奖励不够，就不会有人去投资。这是人

对创新的体会特别深刻。他认为投资者本身

资人都在研究怎样投资医疗资源。

性。”他说道。

也要反思，应该怎样看待创新，怎样看待医

现在是全球性的医疗社会，中国对世

为什么美国总有新药出来？美国真正

疗投资。要清楚所投的领域是医疗医药领

界医学做过很多贡献，也有很多医疗资源实

的FDA新药是药厂定价，新药一旦批准以

域，是靠市场能力去赢得利润和发展，还是

际是为全球服务，而美国、欧洲开发药的成

后，对投资人、研发人员、工厂的奖励是巨

靠核心技术？如果真要投医疗健康领域，首

本越来越高。何无为相信，中国与国外的

大的。如果没有这种机制，或者很多药的价

先就要关注核心技术。如果有了核心技术，

交流会越来越多，从医院服务、外包到新药

格完全由政府控制，就不会有新药出来。他

投资若干年以后，价值就会越来越高，就不

研发，中国对全球医疗行业都会做出更大贡

表示，只要有了奖励机制，敢于创新的人就

会没有明天了。所以一定要关注核心技术。

献，这对投资人而言就意味着更多的机会。

会无穷无尽地冒出来。

对于创业者杨向阳也有建议，要明确

医疗产业该如何发展？这是让众多企

章苏阳认为，真正的创新比10年前多

第一期做到什么地步，第二阶段和第三阶段

业感到困惑的问题。医疗行业存在着企业

了，包括在新药和器械方面已有一些创新，

是什么样，这样确定融资策略和方案就会容

多、小、散、低的特点，同质化竞争制约着

如心脏支架。预期再过5到10年，创新会越

易很多。

November 2013

37

封面故事

如果不靠创新而是靠市场化能力，就要

九鼎投资合伙人兼医药基金总裁禹勃

点。陈鹏辉相信中国创新药的企业会走到世

很会打广告，很会做渠道，这种企业也可以

认为，这个行业创新的动力足够。未来中国

界前列。“这也是我们基金投资理念，我们

不做医疗健康产业。医疗产业的发展最终一

医药板块大的机会在哪里？他预计未来5到

觉得在中国创新药一定是不能忽视的投资领

定要回归到拥有核心技术，这样才能够走到

10年里，中国会成为全球药品的供货中心，

域。”他说道。

头。杨向阳建议PE/VC去看真正的战略投资

这是基本判断。

生物技术的发展对医疗行业有哪些影

者和跨国药厂的走向。医疗健康产业的投资

胡旭波表示，制药行业在西方是创新

响？君联资本合伙人、执行董事蔡大庆表

与发展未来前景很可以期望的，但是必须客

驱动，但美国过去10年医药投资的回报几

示，医疗行业对生物技术有很大需求，生物

观冷静。别拿创新说事，创新是一种过程，

乎是零，投进去多少钱，最后出来多少钱。

技术为满足这种需求提供了可能。主要看到

也是一种心态，对投资者也是一样的。

过去一两年美国很多专门做医疗的基金关门

几个大的浪潮。第一个是单抗技术，单抗药

了，或者将企业缩小了。

以及诊断技术是几千亿的市场，横扫了医疗

医药行业机会良多

光大控股医疗健康基金董事总经理陈

领域，不管是诊断还是药品，都产生了革命

制药行业在过去20多年发展一直很

鹏辉指出，最近几年出现了一些有利于中国

性的变化。还有一个大浪潮就是人类基因组

好，每年都有20%左右增长，产品极大丰

创新药物的根本性因素改变。中国资本市场

科学，以及相关的科学所带来各种各样的巨

富，百分之九十多的药物都有了。下一步

虽然没有给临床一期、二期这样的企业创

大机会。

医药行业的发展动力在哪里？除了拼价格

造很好的退出通道，但如果到各地园区去看

“中国很多基金，尤其是美元基金在

之外，从投资人来看有什么可以帮助行业成

看，不管是苏州还是武汉、天津，政府对初

过去一两年大幅度提高了对医药的配置。我

长，获得投资收益？

创的创新性制药企业，从资本到政策上的扶

们也希望未来有更多的合作。”胡旭波表

医药行业的投资过去5年确实发生了很

持比前几年有很大提高。在中国做药的周期

示。

多事情，从业人员越来越多，看上去很美

虽然没有缩短，审批还要等很长时间，但是

中医药领域也很有发展潜力。博济医

好。启明创投合伙人胡旭波问道，医疗行业

药的成本有所下降。中国消费者对于高价创

疗董事长兼总经理王延春表示，很多西医对

是不是想象的那么美好，是否真的能够赚很

新药的接受度在慢慢提高。这些是未来推动

中医抵触，但是中医药博大精深，发展了

多钱？这两年看到很多基金进来，投资在不

中国新药创新研发的动力和新增长点。

几千年，有些东西还没完全搞清楚。很多

断上涨。未来几年会不会有几十亿的退出？

创新药是未来中国医药行业发展的热

人以前都认为中药是无毒的，中药是非常安 全的，没有毒性。这肯定是错的。中药也会 有毒性，也会有不良反应。有一味补肾的中 药，提取单体做临床实验，出现了很严重的 不良事件，被国家药监局叫停。 “中药的不良反应是不是就是洪水猛 兽？不是这样。我们做过很多药也是用化学 药对照。我们明显地发现，中药如果用的 对，不良反应的发生率远远低于西药。这 也是客观存在。中药的不良反应要比化学药 低。”王延春说道。从疗效来说，很多人觉 得中药是安慰剂或者是心理治疗，实际上从 临床实验的角度来看，并不是这样的。像 传统的脉络宁、银杏制剂，效果更好。从疗 效来讲，中医在某些病方面具有优势。他表 示，产品的技术是企业核心竞争力，好的项 目是企业长久发展的根本，而一些中药项目 也非常好。从投资角度希望更多关注中医 药。 怎样看待医药领域的投资机会？建银 医疗基金投资总监姚元杰表示，医药行业的 机会是产业变迁和升级的机会。改革开放

投资者应该更多关注中医药行业

38

November 2013

后，一大批民营企业进入制药领域，企业的

健康产业是极具潜力的朝阳产业

核心竞争力从产能逐步变为营销。医疗服务

得很好。医药行业某个单一产品可以撑出一

照清科研究中心的统计，去年医疗行业投了

领域在很大程度上是制度变迁带来的投资机

家上市公司，但医疗器械很难以这样做。

188家，19亿美元。目前的投资还是中后端

会，制度变迁的机会值得投资者长期关注。

医疗器械创新升级

很多国内公司在做技术创新，但难度

投资多一些，早期投资比较少。国内医疗器

很大，模式创新、渠道创新还是能够立竿见

械企业数量较多，平均只有几百万收入，企

影，能够产生经济效益。清科创投董事总经

业融资压力比较大，企业发展最大的困难还

医疗器械行业具有技术高度密集、学

理冯苏强指出，企业创新要四个条件：资

是资金。

科覆盖面广、产业综合性强及资金密集等特

金、技术、人才、政策。从资金角度看，按

点，中国高端医疗器械逾80%依赖进口，

端的医疗器械创新，最大问题是政策，不是

应如何推动高端医疗设备研发？作为健康投 资，医疗器械走进了家庭中，家用医疗器械 领域有多大的市场空间？在国际国内市场上

没有能力，中国医疗企业能够创造出世界最 2012年中国医疗健康行业细分领域 投资构成（按案例数）

中国没有强势的品牌，怎样依靠国内的资源 和人才迎头赶上？ 上海微创医疗器械集团有限公司新兴 业务资深副总裁刘道志认为，迎头赶上完全 有可能。15年前心脏支架在欧洲、美国非常

同创伟业副总裁陆潇波认为，医疗器

先进的医疗器械，关键问题就在于政策不鼓 励创新。当然，现在已有一定改观。 冯苏强建议，医保招投标要对国内企 业倾斜，这样才能鼓励创新。家用医疗器械

其他 19% 医疗服务 10%

更多看品牌和渠道，看推广能力和临床、药 医药 48%

店推广能力。中国医疗器械企业想做到足够 大，还得走出国门，到国外市场去推广。 家用医疗器械现阶段渠道比较重要。

普遍，那时中国还没有实力去开发这种很新 的东西，但是现在具备了实力。

刘道志认为，中国医疗器械特别是高

医疗设备 23%

但柏煜在分析小米模式时发现，会出现一种 根本不需要渠道的商业模式：如果有足够大

械与医药行业相比，目前在国内的比例较

的用户群，就可以直接和用户群交流，将渠

低，未来医疗器械的成长空间很大。医疗器

道抛弃掉。“这种可能性是存在的，当然营

械较复杂，产品非常细分，如果只是投某一 个产品，很难像心脏支架这种靠单一产品做

来源：私募通 2013

销能力和造势能力要非常强，技术也要超级 领先。”他说道。

November 2013

39

REPORT

Mind your manners How will new defamation regulations impact on China’s massive messaging apps?

C

hina’s thriving online community has enabled the development of highly successful domestic internet services such as SinaWeibo and WeChat. But some of the conversations enabled by these platforms, and which have made them so popular, could spell trouble.

SinaWeibo, the leading microblogging platform, has more than 500 million registered users and has helped one of the nation’s earliest internet companies stay at the top of the game. Similarly WeChat, a messaging application for smartphones that is approaching 400 million users, put Tencent, another Chinese internet pioneer, back at the forefront. Interaction drives participation.

The leading internet firms are seemingly under threat. Since the early summer the government has been asserting control over the online world.

At the beginning of September, a legal interpretation of the Criminal Law was extended to cover defamation and “spreading of rumors” on the internet. Social media posts that are seen by more than 5,000 people or forwarded more than 500 times and fall under the above categorizations could land their authors a three-year jail sentence.

Although the law is not new, this is the first time that defamation regulations have been expanded to cover the online world, underscoring its prominence as a public sphere. Like in other countries, by making defamation a criminal act as opposed to a civil mat-

40

November 2013

Users of popular messaging apps such as Sina Weibo will have to watch what they say

ter, China raises the risks involved in making public comments.

“The purpose of this interpretation is to ratify what is serious to national interests, what constitutes public disorder,” Yik Chan Chin, research assistant professor in the department of journalism at Hong Kong Baptist University, told China Economic Review. Such terms are often used in charges leveled at those people arrested for critical public comments.

In recent months Chinese security officials have detained several prominent SinaWeibo users, known as “Big Vs.” This has been interpreted as a warning to others to stay in line, and appears to be paying off. Social media analysis firm Weiboreach recorded a noticeable decrease in the number of posts written by influential microbloggers in August from previous months.

Some experts see this as a move

by the government to control internet conversations. “If this increase in self-censorship, especially on topics of political consequence, coincides with a stronger propaganda push by the government, then we could see more CCP dominance over online discourse,” said Sarah Cook, a senior research analyst on internet freedom in East Asia for US-based advocacy group Freedom House.

Under such circumstances some sensitive conversations will likely be held elsewhere. “We are likely to see an acceleration of the trend of people shifting from more publicly facing social platforms like SinaWeibo to private networks like Weixin,” said Cook.

WeChat is operated by Sina’s social media rival Tencent. The service consists of mostly private one-to-one or group conversations between contacts, whereas SinaWeibo is a Twitter-like

REPORT

service in which posts are mostly public.

Given the severity of the government campaign, however, WeChat users could find themselves under scrutiny, even when they talk behind virtual closed doors. It is possible that WeChat will be targeted in the clampdown, said Jin Yoon, an internet analyst at Nomura in Hong Kong.

Billy Leung, an analyst at RHB Research in Hong Kong, was doubtful that the private chats could be tracked.

“I don’t see how feasible it is to [introduce controls] for WeChat.” More likely, censors would monitor the public segment of the service where users can share text and photos.

Officials are keeping an eye out on this space, known as “moments.”

In late August Ding Renren, head of

cybersecurity at the Zhejiang Public Security Department, warned users against posting unverified information in such venues, saying it is “illegal.”

Tencent executives are hoping to stay clear of any problems. The company’s market value has soared above US$100 billion to close in on that of Facebook, driven largely by the huge success of WeChat. It is reportedly planning an IPO sometime in the next 12 months for the service. “Wechat is a significant portion of Tencent’s overall valuation – it [a clampdown] does impact Tencent both valuation wise and operationally,” noted Yoon.

Just how much Sina and Tencent could suffer at the hands of this campaign is open to much debate. What should be discounted now though is

any notion that they could be forced to close SinaWeibo or WeChat.

Like all domestic internet companies, they could not operate in such a tightly-controlled system without the backing of government officials. They have demonstrated their willingness to follow the rules on what cannot be said and are in effect “safe” operators of internet portals.

Social media channels, for all the headaches they create for officials, are the only public outlets for many grievances held by Chinese citizens. Netizens use them to expose misdeeds such as corruption or public health scandals, noted Cook.

“It’s not clear that it is entirely in the CCP’s interest to have millions of people silently bubbling with frustration.”

November 2013

41

封面故事

私募基金日新月异 私募股权市场的发展格局正在不断进化中 文 | 铁琴

今

年仍是中国创业投资暨私募股权

指导目录》等政策法规的约束，仍处于被

亚洲以来，亚洲PE

市场处在调整期的一年。清科

限制的阶段。本土LP方面，因主要由以富

非常缓慢，随着中国私募股权市场的飞速

研究中心数据显示，今年上半年共发生

有家族及个人为代表的散户投资者为主，

发展，外币募资金额也随之呈现大规模增

VC/PE相关并购交易163起，同比大涨

其可投资本量较外资相比一直有较大差

长。目前外资PE

79.1%，环比上涨39.3%；所有交易共涉

距，但可以看到，在市场不佳的情况下，

要是通过与中国机构投资人合作，为其量

及金额175.22亿美元，是去年同期的近

本土LP保持了快于外资LP的发展速度，

身定制PE

9倍，VC/PE相关并购在活跃度和并购金

不断缩小与外资LP的差距，逆市中逐渐承

同地域和战略偏好的投资组合。

额方面均大幅上升，主要是受国内并购的

担起推动市场发展的重任。清科研究中心

走热所带动。全部163起交易分布在生物

认为，目前进入“收割期”的VC/PE市场

外资PE

技术/医疗健康、能源及矿产、房地产、机

将通过合理的调整，逐渐化解投与退之间

化，能够通过二级市场投资增强资产的流

械制造、互联网等二十一个一级行业。其

的矛盾，同时本土LP机构化的进程也会继

动性，具有投资高质量的基金需要的训练

中，生物技术/医疗健康行业以22起案例，

续进行，未来本土LP会逐渐成为市场的主

有素的判断能力和建立平衡投资组合的

数量占比13.5%的成绩在活跃度上排名首

角。

能力。目前中国本土PE 作为成熟的机构投资人，外资PE

位。

FOF参与人民币基金主

FOF基金，实现对中国市场不

与处于萌芽期的本土PE FOF相比， FOF的运作更能够实现地域多元

类，一类是国家队PE

FOF可分为两大 FOF，如国创母基

快速崛起的中国富豪和中产阶级催生

FOF不但成为第一批探路中国的机构投资

金，管理资本量在本土PE

了让全世界都无法忽视的财富管理需求，

人，也已经历过海外私募股权投资的生命

团队齐全，管理模式水平较高，投资效

以富有家族及个人为代表的散户投资者参

周期。自PE FOF于上世纪90年代初进入

率、专业化程度都远超本其他PE

与程度逐渐提高，同时以社保基金和保险 机构为代表的机构投资者，在私募股权市 场的投资脚步也逐渐加快，而备受关注的 国内PE

FOF在发展的同时也遭遇了一定

的挑战，中国LP市场的格局正在不断进化 中。

本土LP逆市而上 清科研究中心《2013年中国创业投 资暨私募股权LP白皮书》显示，中国创业 投资暨私募股权市场上主要的LP可分为本 土、外资及合资三大类。与合资LP一直以 来的中规中矩不同，外资LP及本土LP在 近几年的发展过程中都有着较大的跌宕起 伏。外资LP早在20世纪初便开始涌入中国 创业投资暨私募股权市场，其可投资中国 资本量在经历了2011年的爆发式增长后， 发展趋于平稳，一方面近两年中国VC/PE 市场情绪持续低落，外资LP投资态度日趋 谨慎；另一方面，由于对外资LP身份的明 确界定，其投资会受到如《外商投资产业

42

FOF市场的发展速度

November 2013

利用好自身优势突破“募资难”的困境

FOF中最大， FOF；

2009H1-2013H1中国并购市场VC/PE相关并购发展趋势

另一类为利用自身掌握的财富资源优势设 立的民营PE FOF平台，自身沿袭外资PE

20,000.00

FOF运作经验，更偏向于财富管理的模

18,000.00

式。

16,000.00 清科研究中心分析师闫洁认为，目前

本土PE

12,000.00

其一，资金来源依旧以富有家族及个人为

10,000.00

主，发挥高端理财和打开私募股权渠道作

8,000.00

用；其二，目前市场上本土机构投资人缺

6,000.00

失，PE FOF的资金来源机构性不强，与

4,000.00

外资PE FOF的LP构成有较大差别；其

2,000.00

FOF对如何建立一种

稳定结构关系去匹配GP和LP系统尚未成

163

98

96

FOF也迎来了机遇与挑战

120

91

100

21

7,034.42

7 5,243.87 4,691.06 40 1,672.96 21

60

4,933.25 40

3,128.36 2,012.44

20

535.12 35 12

0.00

0 2009H1 2009H2 2010H1 2010H2 2011H1 2011H2 2012H1 2012H2 2013H1

并购总额（US$M）

后，本土的PE

160

80 51

熟。 在中国VC/PE市场进入深度调整期

180

140 117

14,000.00

FOF的发展呈现三个主要特点：

三，目前人民币PE

17,521.81 17,521.8

案例数

来源：私募通 2013

并存的发展局面，如何利用好自身优势突 破“募资难”的困境，又如何进一步培

供必要的资源以及填补他们信息缺口。由

养并发展更多专业人才等，都是本土PE

于挑选技术和行业的关系，外资PE

FOF

业，房地产行业一直以来都受到政府的密

FOF亟待解决的重大问题。

更具有专业的技术对这些新公司或新启动

切关注。国家通过宏观调控的手段一定程

企业做出判断，目前倾向于投资已经拥有

度上有能力控制房地产行业。此外，身为

历史投资业绩的团队。

典型的资金密集型产业，房地产行业在快

考察新设立基金（First time fund） 能力对基金管理团队水平的评价更具备专 业性，并且为那些不熟悉私募股权的LP提

作为对国民经济有着重要影响的行

速发展的同时也对资金需求提出了较高的

私募房地产基金

要求。随着宏观调控的深度进行，很多依

私募房地产基金在中国从无到有，

赖银行信贷的房地产企业的资金压力与日

经历了近十年的发展，已形成了一定的规

俱增，房地产基金的发展作为一种得力的

模。随着中国金融政策的不断完善，房地

融资渠道必将进一步占据越来越重要的市

产基金作为一种房地产金融创新产品，将

场份额。

为中国的房地产市场注入新的活力，并促

房地产基金的优势在于其投资方向的

进房地产市场的健康发展。随着2010年一

灵活性，与目前政府调控的主导方向并不

系列房地产调控的政策出台，以及地产信

冲突，对于比如保障房投资，房地产基金

贷日益受到严格控制，房地产融资渠道急

能够起到重要推动作用。政府的监管强化

剧收紧，因此，多样化融资成为房地产企

了开发商的融资需求，同时大量游资都在

业最为迫切的需求之一。

寻找投资出口，再加上人们普遍看好中国

在此背景下，房地产基金已成为房

房地产市场的长远利益，因此现阶段是房

地产企业重要融资渠道，根据清科研究中

地产基金发展的良好时机。房地产基金的

心房地产基金研究室观测，近年来房地产

崛起影响了行业的资金来源结构，以及房

基金不断涌现，有望迎来又一个高速发展

地产的开发结构和模式，清科研究中心房

期。据清科数据显示，中国已投资或拟

地产基金研究室预计，未来几年房地产基

投资房地产行业的机构数为421家，房地

金仍将处于高速发展期，各种不同结构、

产基金个数为545支。其中以开发商为背

不同策略、不同主体的基金都将涌现，这

景，以PE机构进入房地产投资领域，以基

将使房地产基金在地产业中拥有更强的影

金背靠产业为背景的这三类机构成为房地

响力，并提高业内的资源配置效率，促进

产基金的中坚力量。

行业健康成长。

November 2013

43

REPORT

Gaming invasion Despite much excitement at the prospect of game consoles entering China through the Shanghai FTZ, there appears to be little chance of an industry revolution

Y

oungsters in the West have enjoyed experiencing the evolution of computer games consoles from simple platforms into powerful machines capable of rivaling cinema in terms of digitizing reality.

Their Chinese counterparts have been left out. Consoles have been banned outright in mainland China since the year 2000.

So when the Chinese government recently lifted the ban as part of economic reforms being piloted in the Shanghai free trade zone (FTZ), executives from Tokyo to Seattle jumped for joy. Finally, an opportunity to penetrate the world’s most populous nation at a time when console sales in existing markets are on the decline.

Unfortunately the hard work will only just begin, and there is no guarantee China will be the next big market.

puter games growing in China,” Johan Olausson, a manager with consultancy Bamboo Business Communications, told China Economic Review.

This could open a potentially huge new market for consoles and games.

There are some 180 million gamers in China, creating a gaming market excluding consoles that is projected to reach US$13.1 billion in value this year, according to research house Niko Partners. The US gaming market recorded sales of US$20.77 billion in 2012, including consoles. China offers a lot of potential growth.

It could even be a saviour for some.

Japan’s industry pioneers Nintendo and Sony in particular have felt a sharp decline in their computer gaming business. Consumers in developed markets are playing more games for free online

and on mobile devices, a trend partly driven by austerity among gamers during a time of economic uncertainty.

Uncertain potential Tapping that potential remains a dream for now. Piracy, regulatory approval and a home-grown gaming culture all stand in the way of success.

One of the aims of the Shanghai FTZ has been to slice through China’s notorious bureaucratic red tape, making it easier for companies to do business. Still, restrictions remain. If foreign-funded console and games companies want to be able to sell in China, they first must set up a domestic operation in the zone.

“At the moment there are a lot of uncertainties related to the FTZ and it’s hard to know how long things will

Blackout Beijing pulled the plug on consoles in order, as officials at the time noted, to protect the youth of the country from unwanted cultural influences.

So why is a loosening of the rules underfoot? Speculation of the ban being lifted has been constant for several years and reached a peak in January of this year. Lifting the ban now is part of a broader effort to stimulate investment in new industries.

The political forces “involved in this [Shanghai FTZ] would like to see ‘new’ media and entertainment such as com-

44

November 2013

As console sales slow in developed nations, gaming giants are setting their hopes on China

REPORT

take, what kind of business licenses will be needed, if you would have to locate hardware production to the actual FTZ,” said Olausson.

Companies such as Foxconn, which makes consoles for Nintendo, could be forced to build factories inside the zone itself for devices to be shipped within China. All consoles made will still need to be cleared by regulators.

The Ministry of Culture will also need to approve the games themselves. Its Byzantine decision making won’t make this an enjoyable process for executives.

Piracy is another factor that companies will have to take into consideration. It is possible to buy consoles in China on the grey market, but it is almost impossible to find original games. Lax enforcement of intellectual property allows street vendors to hawk pirated copies that retail for up to US$60 in the US for a couple of dollars.

The biggest challenge is luring existing Chinese to consoles from existing devices that have become de-facto gaming platforms in the absence of consoles. Although console games have the potential to be successful, the penetration created by PCs over the past 13 years means online PC games will continue to dominate the local market, said Lisa Hanson, managing partner at Niko Partners.

A new model The prospect of tapping a market that contains more gamers than the population of Japan means Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft won’t be easily deterred.

In order to be successful “they will need to create compelling content that is appealing to the local gamers, and devise a business model that is appropriate for the Chinese market,” said

Denied in their youth, China’s post-90s generation could soon get to play the latest games consoles

Hanson. This could see firms distributing games digitally for free but charging for in-games upgrades and services, similar to the online PC model.

It also means that console makers and game developers cannot simply take the same approach to the Chinese market as they do in the West or in Japan, noted the China head of one of the world’s largest games publishers, who asked not to be named.

To ensure that local gamers buy consoles, the right games will need to be marketed. Localizing content is a vital strategy employed across cultural industries in China.

“Look at Hollywood – it has found that by sending movies to China it can make a lot more money. It sees a lot of potential in the Chinese market. I think the same is true, or will one day be true, for games,” said Louis Bedigian a senior tech analyst with Benzinga.

Flexibility on pricing, as well as selling older consoles and titles at basement prices, are also key consid-

erations. Most analysts agreed that attempting to charge the same retail prices for games in China as in developed markets just won’t work.

“There is no reason why Developer X can’t make a Chinese-specific game and sell it for US$5 or US$10. Developers are not opposed to low prices,” said Bedigian.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the development of consoles and computer games in the Shanghai FTZ, there is already some industry movement. Microsoft has announced a deal with local media firm BesTV to develop “family games and related services” with a total investment of up to US$237 million. The US-firm makes the X-Box games console, which it could promote through the venture.

How that project progresses could influence the entrance of Sony and Nintendo – neither of whom have announced plans in the FTZ – into China. They of all interested parties should be hoping for a big success.

November 2013

45

REPORT

Risk is back Whatever happened to good old-fashioned bribery?

Corruption is back on the multinational corporate agenda in China

M

ultinationals in China woke with a start in 2013 after shutting their eyes to an increasingly complex threat from fraud and corruption the year before.

A survey on fraud in China, part of an annual global report released by corporate investigator Kroll, showed firms reeling from a spate of high-profile corruption scandals in China.

The apprehension is palpable.

Companies that described themselves as highly vulnerable to procurement fraud or other forms of malfeasance connected with their suppliers jumped to 23% of those surveyed, compared with just 2% the year before. The perception of high vulnerability to conflicts of interest with management

46

November 2013

surged to 21%, from 2% in 2012.

Rising trepidation is being felt across the board, from intellectual property theft to regulatory risks.

Companies are suddenly scared again after what analysts called a “false sense of security” prevailed the year before.

“It’s almost like people were dreaming or sleeping last year but coming back to reality this year,” said Violet Ho, Kroll senior managing director and head of greater China.

Though the latest statistics contrast sharply with those from last year, the feeling of vulnerability in China’s market is not a departure from 2011. In fact, Ho said this year’s data are a continuation of trends seen two years ago, before companies seemed to doze off.

A year to remember As to why companies forgot about fraud in 2012 and what dumped the cold water on sleepy eyed executives this year – that’s hardly a mystery.

A slew of fraud cases involving Chinese companies listed in the US and Canada jolted the international investment community starting in May 2011. The cases induced a wave of skepticism among global companies looking for China partners.

Although the fraud cases continued into 2012, the headlines on Chinese firms that had filed false reports to the SEC subsided, giving the global community a sense of temporary relief.

This year has witnessed several major corruption and fraud cases at

REPORT

the heart of international business in China. Those came alongside the trial of Bo Xilai, a fallen top official, as well as a purge through the oil industry.

A Chinese investigation into UK drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) publicly announced in June sent global pharmaceutical firms into a panic. The probe, which focused on kickbacks given to doctors for proscribing GSK drugs, has spread since then to other drugmakers such as Bayer.

Baby-formula makers have similarly been hit, but for price fixing. Earlier this year, China’s central economic planning agency accused France’s Danone and Switzerland’s Nestle, among other firms, of fixing prices of baby formula. The companies have since caved, promising to lower prices. They also paid US$100 million in fines.

High volume, high risk GSK’s case drew extra media attention to the drug industry in China after several GSK executives and the head of a consulting firm were detained by police. Pharmaceutical companies, along with automakers and chemical firms, in China take part in a highly lucrative market but one that also faces substantial fraud and regulatory risks, a Shanghai-based lawyer told China Economic Review.

“These are sensitive industries that are fast-growing and the volume [of money] is very high,” said the lawyer, who advises European companies on Chinese corruption policy. “They’re the key industries affected by business risks that you don’t have in the West.”

In GSK’s case, that risk was reportedly a culture of bribery used to beat out competitors in drug sales. Accord-

ing to some reports, Chinese doctors were even sent on exotic getaways with prostitutes as a reward for high sales.

Kickbacks and corruption are nothing new in China. However, foreign companies may not be aware of the risk they are exposed to when entering the market, according to the lawyer.

When a multinational firm markets products or outsources to China, any corrupt practices perpetrated by local staff could make the company liable under Chinese regulation, putting at risk investments and even foreign staff based in the country. GSK headquarters claimed it was unaware of any corrupt dealings in its China business.

No more red envelopes What’s new in 2013, Ho at Kroll said, is the sophistication of corruption and the involvement of senior management in fraud. It’s no longer just slipping a few bank notes into a partner’s pocket and shaking hands.

“It used to be, if you go a few years back, the common fraud type in China was physical theft and also petty fraud, commercial fraud, kickbacks and whatnot. Now we are seeing a lot more fraud perpetrated by your CEOs, CFOs or at least middle level managers in key functions.”

More complex networks of fraud are particularly taking root in companies that outsource manufacturing. A company that sources products from China will often partner with a Chinese company that procures from several manufacturers. The local manufacturers often pay bribes to the Chinese company in order to secure contracts. Yet, at the same time, the manufacturer will inflate the price of the product. Both sides can profit wildly at

the expense of the foreign firm.

In several cases investigated by Kroll this year, entire departments in some companies were involved in such deals.

The bribes were often skimmed off as a percentage of the total.

“This time it’s no longer a redpackage type of arrangement because the amount involved is staggering,” Ho said, referring to the cash-stuffed red envelopes exchanged during Chinese New Year but also used to pass bribes.

Wake-up call As collusion between vendors and suppliers grows increasingly complex, detecting fraud becomes more challenging. Sophisticated corruption in China has existed for years, said John Besant-Jones, founder of due diligence firm Red Flag Accounting. What’s changing is the attention foreign companies are giving to it today.

“It is probably just as fair to say that there is an increasing awareness of more sophisticated frauds rather than only say that there is an increasing number,” noted Besant-Jones.

Data from Kroll supports that idea.

The number of respondents actually affected by fraud inched up only by two percentage points this year to 67%, a figure that demonstrates current fears in the market are not all translating into actual cases.

In that respect, the heightened apprehension this year isn’t necessarily a bad sign, according to Ho. It shows that multinational firms have lost some of the complacency Kroll observed the year before.

If the headlines stay filled with horror stories of scandals at major multinationals, foreign firms will likely try harder to stay alert in 2014.

November 2013

47

REPORT

Playing with property China’s new leadership appears to be adopting a more flexible approach to controlling the cost of housing than the previous administration

A

year ago, rising domestic property prices would most likely have prompted policymakers to reach into the cupboard and pull out a blanket and smother them.

Former premier Wen Jiabao, who stepped down in March, oversaw a nearly three-year long campaign to control housing prices. Government efforts included direct action such as price growth limits in cities. Lending to developers was also curbed.

His successor, Li Keqiang, is so far showing more flexibility in imposing controls on the housing market, even amid rising perceptions in the general public that the cost of owning your own home is too high. With housing price growth seemingly back on the upward track again, that stance may be tested, but is unlikely to be reversed.

Recent data suggest an upswing is underway. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the value of homes sold climbed to US$113 billion (RMB 691.1 billion) in September from US$84.2 billion a month earlier.

Prices in first-tier cities jumped almost 20% year-on-year in September, according to reports. In August, house prices in 70 major cities tracked by the NBS were up 8.3% from the same period a year ago, one of the fastest paces of gains since the government started its price control campaign.

And yet still no big announcements from Beijing.

“I think the new government has a

48

November 2013

higher tolerance on the housing price to rise,” Raymond Ngai, a senior property analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said at a press conference in Hong Kong.

This isn’t to suggest that Li and other senior officials have no pain threshold: The Chinese government is keenly sensitive to issues that galvanize strong public opinion. But they appear to be taking a more nuanced approach to dealing with the real estate market.

Property is one of the few positive sectors this year, underpinning fragile economic growth and helping Beijing meet its GDP target. Crippling the sector would have unwanted consequences.

The government has the flexibility to implement a variety of policies in various parts of the country, according to Ngai, who said that there is no nationwide housing bubble. In places such as Shanghai and Beijing and some core second-tier cities where property prices gains outstrip the national GDP

headline growth figures, further tightening is expected.

Somewhere like Wenzhou in Zhejiang province, where prices are falling, local officials will be given more freedom to selectively implement national policies. In early August the city announced that it would allow firsttime homebuyers to purchase second homes. That is sure to bring relief to local governments. They rely on land sales to property developers for up to 25% of their income, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data presented at the press event.

However, Beijing still has its hands firmly on the controls and any easing will be closely policed.

“It’s more whether local governments strictly enforce existing measures than they have a lot of freedom to introduce their own measures. I don’t think local governments have a lot of freedom to introduce their own measures,” Ngai said in an email to China Economic Review.

Wenzhou is a special case when it comes to economic reforms; as a major entrepreneurial centre it is given leeway by Beijing to test new ideas. Other areas still lack that power.

A case in point is the city of Zhoushan, also in Zhejiang. Local media in mid-September reported it was loosening some of its home purchasing restrictions. Days later the local government distanced itself from the reports.

REPORT

The big number Rosy GDP data only gets China’s new premier halfway, but it’s at least a good start

C

ool, autumn weather may be sweeping across the northern hemisphere but China is basking in the warmth of Li Keqiang season. Figures for GDP and inflation in the third quarter of the year show the country in what Chinese media have dubbed the “Li Keqiang interval”, a space where, by the end of 2013, inflation has kept below 3.5% and economic growth chins above 7.5%.

Premier Li is right on the mark.

Inflation hit 3.1% in September.

GDP landed at 7.8% in the third quarter of the year. Li, China’s No. 2 and the head of the State Council, is earning a reputation not that of a crude command economy technocrat, but something more akin to a Swiss watchmaker.

The data give China’s leadership what Standard Chartered called “some breath back” after a slowerthan-desired first half. However, showy economic numbers aren’t the final product for Likonomics, or Li’s own brand of economic maneuvering. It’s a means for buying time, a stick with which the premier will beat back critics all the while building consensus for a far-reaching economic reform package. At least those are the hopes.

With 2013 headline data wrapped nicely in a package for Li, the question now is: Can he keep up the growth?

Many economists have said no, growth is already slowing. Londonbased Capital Economics even noted that “This could be as good as it gets”. Industrial production, which drove the economy last quarter, was on the decline by September. Fixedasset investment hit a nine-month low in that month.

The “bright spot” in economic growth the country enjoyed starting in August is fading, Ting Lu, China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note. In July, Premier Li oversaw a stimulus boost to certain sectors in the economy such as rails and renewable energy.

Economic indicators responded accordingly, delivering confidence in the government’s ability to keep the engine running without pushing inflation skyward. All of that, Ting said, “is close to being over”.

But HSBC expects no slip in economic activity through the end of the year. In a note, economists at the bank said the 2013 budget will allow for increased fiscal spending in the final months of the year to support the economy. Standard Chartered’s outlook for Q4 was rosy as well.

Perhaps more important than buoying fourth-quarter growth is reaching the November political event known as the Third Plenum, and there has been much talk of

reform in this context.

Across the board, analysts agreed that the strong economic data and an air of stability have helped the new leaders coast into the plenum.

The significance of the meet, however, is more hotly debated. Some equities researchers have told clients to be prepared for a dud of plenary session, where little noticeable effect follows.

If that’s the case, Li’s brand of economic direction will prove of little use. The true dividend to be reaped in China, as the premier has already noted, will come from reform, not the prolonging of the investment-based model of development that accounted for more than 55% of GDP in the first nine months.

HSBC is still betting on a comprehensive reform plan to emerge from the meeting, and likely a method of maintaining a high growth rate. “These fiscal, financial, pricing and urbanization reforms should unleash China’s private investment and consumption demand, helping to sustain 7-8% growth in the medium and long run,” the bank’s report said.

By the end of November, judging by the seriousness and detail of reform blueprints, it should be clear if Likonomics is a true science or something more similar to alchemy.

November 2013

49

话题

物业市场需求旺盛 上海自贸区的设立催生了短期的市场投机行为

高

力国际近日发布了今年第三季度上

中国（上海）自由贸易实验区对上海

准进驻自由贸易实验区的国际银行。

海房地产市场回顾及展望。高力国

房地产市场会产生哪些影响？高力国际认

际观测到第三季度上海写字楼、零售物业

为，对写字楼市场的影响可能体现为企业

以及住宅物业的市场需求均有上升。在甲

在自贸区注册营运所带来的对新增办公面

由于新设和扩租需求的增长以及静安

级写字楼市场，租赁需求持续超过供应。

积的需求，对区域内写字楼物业的租金和

嘉里中心三号楼较高的预租率，上海核心

受空置率持续下降的影响，本季度核心商

资本值预计会产生正面影响，但鉴于自贸

商务区甲级写字楼的租赁需求在第三季度

务区的租金自2012年第四季度以来首次出

区内的办公物业形态主要以仓库夹层、厂

上升。净吸纳量环比上升40%，至约10.2

现增长。零售物业市场需求活跃，许多海

房裙楼等附属形式存在，优质的办公楼宇

万平方米，超过新增供应。平均空置率因

外零售商选址上海作为中国的首家店铺或

供给有限，因此新增需求可能会由于溢出

而环比下降0.6个百分点，至7.8%。季

旗舰店。在住宅市场方面，第三季度，一

效应使得自贸区周边的办公物业受益，尤

内，瞩目的租赁交易包括：外汇交易商福

二手房成交量均保持坚挺，由于今年1至8

其是位于浦东的优质办公楼集聚区；但值

汇在创兴金融中心租赁700平方米，用于

月上海住宅新开工量持续的同比负增长，

得提出的是对办公楼市场的整体影响主要

设立新的办公点；大众汽车某子公司在尚

未来一年内新增供应将十分有限。受此影

还是取决于自贸区政策对整体经济推动的

嘉中心租赁800平方米，用于设立新的办

响，短期内房价将会继续上升。高力国际

有效程度和力度。国内投资者对浦东写字

公点；律师事务所WGM从恒隆广场二期

中国调研部董事谢靖宇表示，9月底挂牌的

楼物业的投资兴趣有所增长；投资浦东的

迁至静安嘉里中心二号楼，承租约1300平

自贸区对其周边物业市场的资产表现或会

意愿较浦西旺盛。操作细则尚未明确，企

方米；无印良品从中华企业大厦迁至旺旺

产生一定的影响，但鉴于具体操作可执行

业需要在自由贸易实验区内经营抑或仅需

大厦，承租1100平方米左右；以及长城汽

细节仍未出台，短期内市场投机行为将有

注册？无论如何，已有11家金融机构及25

车在香港新世界大厦租赁422平方米作为

所增加，而以住宅类别的二手资产表现尤

家企业在挂牌首日注册。花旗银行、汇丰

新设办公点。

为突出。

银行、东亚银行及星展银行是迄今四家获

甲级写字楼

截至第三季度末，核心商务区甲级写 字楼平均租金在前两季的持平之后环比上 涨1.1%，至人民币8.9元每天每平方米。 季内录得一宗整售交易及一个资产组合交 易。基汇资本由腾飞处购得上海浦汇大 厦，总价约人民币16.7亿元或单价约人民 币4万元每平方米。此外，总部位于香港 的开发商南丰集团收购富达来信托30%的 信托单位以及信托管理公司，部分获得富 达来中国资产组合。彰显外资开发商对中 国，特别系上海商业地产的信心。

零售物业 上半年，由上海商业信息中心监测的 85家商场之销售额总计人民币344亿元， 而娱乐及餐饮业上半年分别实现销售额增 长12.1%和8.8%，继续成为购物中心吸引 客流的重要因素。 第三季度，服饰、餐饮、娱乐、教 申城零售物业租金预计在年底前会有所回升

50

November 2013

育、珠宝及配饰等业态对中高端购物中心

上海自贸区的设立对周边市场的物业产生了一定影响

物业市场需求表现活跃。例如：意大利潮

收购正大乐城实现其在中国第一桩投资交

中低端产品成交价格上涨所致。由于中小

流品牌10 Corso Como于南京西路开设

易。

户型住宅供应有限，发展商纷纷提高中低 端加推楼盘售价，提价幅度一般在1%至

2500平方米店铺；Bershka于南京东路设

IAPM及静安嘉里中心继2013年第

立800平方米店铺。Mango与H&M皆于

三季度试营业后，有望于第四季度盛大开

季内进行品牌战略扩张，其分别于静安嘉

业。连同计划于2013年第四季度重新开业

鉴于土地市场的回暖以及预期未来

里中心及环球港开设其中国首家男装店，

的大上海时代广场，上海中高端购物中心

房价会继续上涨，第三季度录得多宗优质

同时，日本零售品牌Muji于IAPM推出其上

物业市场预计于年底前新增约22.3万平方

住宅物业投资交易案例。8月，融创绿城

海首家旗舰店（1200平方米）。俏江南上

米新增供应。短期内，市场整体空置率有

以总价人民币5.074亿元收购了浙江康恒

海第十七家门店于龙之梦购物中心开业，

望在一定合理范围内下降，而租金预计会

位于普陀区的香溢花城项目49%的股权。

面积为1522平方米。强劲的需求以及额外

在年底前逐步回升。

该项目地上建筑面积为46.8万平方米，为 住宅、商务办公和酒店用途。同月，莱蒙

的新增供应带动净吸纳量环比增长231% 至29.18万平方米。然而，截至第三季度

3%之间。

住宅市场

国际以总价人民币16.9亿元收购了摩根大

末，众多包括353广场、818广场、港汇恒

第三季度上海新建商品住宅成交量环

通位于浦东的莎玛世纪公园酒店式公寓项

隆广场和正大广场在内的购物中心持续进

比和同比分别上升5%和26%，至310万平

目，折合楼板价约为人民币34200元每平

行内部业态及品牌组合调整，致使上海中

方米（24827套）。在经历了7月的下跌

方米。

高端购物中心物业市场之整体空置率上升

后，8月新建商品住宅成交量出现反弹，9

展望未来，受10月传统销售旺季以

0.3个百分点至8.8%。

月上升至142万平方米（11185套），同

及发展商年末冲刺全年销售业绩的带动，

截至第三季度末，内环商圈内某租金

比上升75%。由于预期房价会继续上涨

最后一季度新建商品住宅供应量将会继续

低于平均水平的大型项目拉低了上海中高

（受通胀及土地成本上升影响），首次置

增长。而受房价继续上涨预期的影响，整

端购物中心市场首层平均固定租金，使其

业及改善型需求买家继续入市。

体住房需求量仍会保持坚挺。鉴于强盛的

环比下降2.5%至人民币39.7元每天每平

受成交量持续增长的带动，第三季度

购房需求，整体市场发展状况仍将有利于

方米。上海零售物业投资市场录得一宗境

上海新建商品住宅成交均价环比和同比仍

发展商。由于未来一年内新增供应十分有

内股权交易：由嘉实基金和高富诺基金联

分别上升2%和5%，至人民币24258元每

限，短期内，房价将会继续上升，而政府

合投资成立的嘉实房地产投资公司，通过

平方米。成交均价的环比上升主要是由于

预计也会在第四季度顺势增加土地供应。

November 2013

51

话题

电商忧喜录 国内电商的发展仍然存在很多不确定因素 文 | 晗军

国

内电子商务市场在去年下半年带来

讯这样一些企业。C2C占电子商务的份额

了很多惊喜，尤其是12月份的整

开始出现下滑的趋势，而B2C的份额开始

体市场规模达到创纪录的1.3万亿，让人

出现更高、更强势的增长。C2C基本完成

们对中国电子商务的发展有了新的理解，

了作为电子商务市场教育者和开启者的角

也使关心电子商务发展的人，可以从另外

色。而作为未来电子商务发展的重要环节

的角度和层面去探讨电子商务未来的发展

或重要的参与者，B2C已经正式登上了市

趋势。

场，并且作为市场的领导者出现。B2C市 场交易规模，在第二季度达到1572亿元，

从易观数据可以看到，今年第一季

环比上涨18%。

度数据是相对下行的，这也符合电子商务

人们对中国电子商务的发展有了新的理解

市场发展的普遍规律。但随着一些企业和

纵观市场格局，天猫、京东、腾讯

整体行业在上半年开始向热门领域或行业

这样的B2C企业仍然占据前三甲。苏宁易

相继投入资源，发展趋势是在持续上行。

购作为增长非常快的电商企业，同样提出

引领了市场发展。在京东或者其他的平台

“我们相信这些数据依然会再往上走，直

了平台开放的策略。“随着苏宁易购的发

上已经可以看到电子图书的销售。宋阳认

到第四季度或者明年一季度，这也比较符

展，能够带来更多新的数据上的惊喜。”

为：“相信随着图书市场的发展，电子书

合电子商务发展的规律。”易观国际高级

宋阳表示。

在整个B2C图书出版市场领域的发展，将 逐渐以更高的速度体现出来。”

分析师宋阳预测道。

B2C分品类市场

今年第二季度，网络零售市场规模已

目前的数据是将传统图书和电子图书

达4029.2亿元，整体环比增长达到11%。

在图书出版市场，当当、亚马逊和

统一进行统计，下半年会把电子书与传统

不单包括B2C还包括C2C，比如淘宝、腾

京东这几家比较靠前的企业，同样还是

图书的交易规模进一步拆分，两种不同产 品的相应数据能够得到体现。目前，整体 图书市场的交易规模是36.4亿元，较去年

2013Q2中国B2C市场交易额份额

同期增长42.4%，环比增长12.7%。 天猫48.9% 京东18.0%

天猫48.9%

腾讯B2C5.2%

腾讯B2C5.2%

27%。从现在已经统计的数据看，B2C

苏宁易购4.5%

市场服务交易规模已经达到494.1亿，在

亚马逊中国2.7%

B2C总体交易规模中占31%。较去年同期

当当网2.0%

增长130%，环比增长19.6%。天猫在服

国美在线1.8%

装品类市场的占有率远大大高于其他竞争

唯品会1.5% 1号店1.0%

京东18%

服装品类一直是网上零售的第一大 单品，目前在传统渠道的替代率已经达到

凡客诚品1.0% 其他13.4%

对手。 但是通过淘宝、通过天猫平台发展出 来的垂直服装品类企业，有逃离天猫的趋 势，在建立起自有品牌的前提下，发展自 己的垂直电商品牌。这个趋势已经逐渐可

52

数据说明：自2013Q1开始，易观智库市场规模统计口径进行调整，由之前收订调整为出 库，并对历史数据进行校对

以看到。

来源：易观国际 • 易观智库 • eBI中国互联网商情 SOURCE: EnfoDesk©Analysys International

元，较去年同期增长176.7%，市场也呈

November 2013

B2C母婴品类的市场交易规模达72亿 现爆发式增长。目前天猫、京东两者相对

2013Q2中国B2C市场3C品类交易额份额

京东40.6% 天猫26.5% 京东40.6%

苏宁易购8.8% 腾讯B2C5.8%

苏宁易购8.8%

国美在线5.0% 亚马逊中国1.6%

天猫26.5%

其他 11.7%

数据说明：自2013Q1开始，易观智库B2C市场规模统计口径进行调整，由之前收订调整为 出库，并对历史数据进行校对 来源：易观国际 • 易观智库 • eBI中国互联网商情 SOURCE: EnfoDesk©Analysys International

市场占有率更大一些。 3C品类作为电子商务B2C领域重要 组成部分，交易规模已有500亿元。这个

部分。从现在的数据可以看到，鞋服类的

是说作为目前电商平台，已经逐渐确立了

活跃度是非常高的。今年上半年，统计的

品牌化优势，甚至已经开始用品牌实现变

融资规模达到近2亿。

现。从主流B2C用户的活跃度分析，目前

市场同样以京东、天猫、苏宁易购列前三 甲。宋阳表示：“通过目前统计的数据来

天猫遥遥领先于其他的电商品牌。排在第

网购用户复杂度

二位的是京东，接着是当当、亚马逊、唯

看，这个细分领域保持着较高速度的发

B2B从规模看比较小，目前统计的

展。一方面与季节性促销有一定关联，另

B2B中小企业市场收入规模是39.3亿元。

从网站转化率以看到，根据易观的监

一方面同样可以看到这个细分品类的需求

但是，百度、360这样的企业，很大一部

测数据反馈，用户从访问到把商品放入购

对传统渠道的替代，电商在3C品类的替代

分市场收入来自于B端，这些企业同样应

物车的转化率，普遍比较低，行业平均水

率将逐渐呈现出更加强有力的趋势。”

该以B2B的市场划分或市场统计作为口

平仅在3.8%，这也体现出中国网购用户的

今年一直比较火的生鲜电商，看到

径。目前的39.3亿主要是以中小企业为

复杂度。但是从放入购物车到下单，从下

一些新的玩家，除了比较大一些的平台，

主，也有一些代表性的企业。这个市场一

单到支付，相对转化率是比较高的。

像京东、天猫，还看到像“本来生活”这

直是不温不火，但仍然可以看到变化。目

从目前趋势来看，移动购物或移动

样一些垂直类或者小而美的电商企业，他

前阿里巴巴以46.4%的市场占有率遥遥领

电子商务仍处于孕育期和市场的繁育期，

们在这个市场上的发力同样具有一定代表

先于第二位的环球资源和第三位的慧聪。

宋阳认为，未来在移动电子商务领域，很

品会等。

性。在目前这个市场上，他们不仅是在塑

今年上半年，阿里收购了穷游，以这

可能还是目前领先的电子商务品牌或者平

造自己的品牌价值，另一方面也在争夺上

个事情为标志，BAT三大互联网都在旅游

台，将自己在传统电子商务的优势与移动

游的资源。

市场逐渐发力，体现出电商企业与在线旅

互联网嫁接，从而体现出品牌的议价能

在生鲜市场有两个非常重要的资源，

游市场的结合。在线旅游市场未来的发展

力。还有一方面是O2O企业，也就是从线

一个是冷链，目前国内社会化冷链的比例

如何与传统领域相结合，是应该进一步研

上到线下，同样是电子商务的一种业态或

相对较低，而欧美市场已经达到80%甚至

究的问题。

发展方向。未来电子商务的发展，宋阳相 信将是两者：一个是平台转移，另外一个

90%，但国内只有不到8%。电商企业如

根据易观监测到的数据反馈，今年上

果自建冷链电商，归聚在自己的电商平台

半年，京东、亚马逊、当当的日均UV处

下，将是非常重要的资源。生鲜还有一部

于自主销售B2C的领先地位。但如果仅从

“国内电商的发展，仍然存在很多

分是上游的生产链，同样是非常重要的上

UV的角度来看，并不能直接体现出这些品

不确定因素。但是，天猫、京东、苏宁易

游资源。

牌电商或平台目前的价值。苏宁易购目前

购，甚至国美这样一些传统的电商企业，

在市场上的表现是非常引人注目的。也就

他们的发展是比较快的。”宋阳说道。

鞋服类同样是目前国内占有率最大的

就是以O2O方式来持续体现出市场价值。

November 2013

53

话题

打造跨文化管理人才 高质量的国际化MBA始终是市场上最为紧俏的

上

海自由贸易区设立后，对于国际 化的高级管理人才的需求更为强

劲，也对国内商学教育提出了更高的要 求。1991年教育部正式批准9所高校试行 MBA招生，20多年来，在市场需求推动 下，国内出现了230多所可以颁发MBA学 位的院校。目前，国内报考MBA的人数仍 在增加，学费也水涨船高，院校之间的竞 争十分激烈；虽然市场对高质量MBA人才 的需求仍很旺盛，但与欧美发达国家比， 国内高质量MBA的数量还远远不够。 针对国内MBA教育是否存在过度繁 荣的问题，上海外国语大学MBA中心执行 主任潘聪女士表示，20多年来，全国累计

为MBA学员搭建沟通交流的平台

培养MBA（包括EMBA）近40万人。目 前国内中小企业有1300多万家，其中上规

“全球时尚与奢侈品”“国际金融与财务

课程设置则旨在帮助学生掌握商业知

模的有200万家；如果每家上规模中小企

管理”和“跨国经营与跨文化管理”；第

识，培养全球思维、跨文化洞察能力和执

业需要一名MBA，就有200多万MBA的需

三，根据学生的外语能力，实现灵活教

行软技能。项目开始时还设有预前课程，

求。可见国内MBA的缺口是多么巨大。

学，开设全英文课程和双语课程，在培养

帮助学生为接下来的MBA学习做好充分

学生管理能力、领导艺术和创新精神的同

准备。在第一学年，学生将参加不同课程

时，通过商务英语和第二外语等选修课提

和讲座来培养自己的人际交往能力和跨文

高学生的跨文化沟通交流技能。

化沟通能力。而且，在第二学年，以一体

加大国际化力度 有分析称，2012~2013年，部分北

54

京和上海的MBA院校生源数量下降，很多

“授课老师来自10多个国家和地区。

化、实际应用和全球经验为基础，将帮助

院校面临着招生压力。相比20年前就开办

我们提倡的是无国界，老师来自各个地

学生把在课堂里学到的知识用到现实世界

MBA的院校，后来者怎样才能招到优秀

区。全日制班有一半学生来自世界各地，

中去，把功能性的知识和整体的商业背景

的生源？潘聪表示，关键是要具备自身的

国际化氛围非常浓郁。”潘聪说道。

整合起来。第二学年时（其中包括1周左右

特色和优势。上外MBA教育中心成立于

上外MBA项目教师队伍中有1/3的

的海外学习之旅、3-5个月的海外交换，

2009年7月，在国内MBA院校中算是一支

本校教授，1/3的企业高管，另有1/3的

以及1年的双学位项目），学生还可以通

新军。

海外合作院校的教授，他们的背景并不局

过参加海外合作交流项目丰富海外经历。

“我们的优势在于跨文化领域和浓郁

限于欧洲和美国，还有许多来自新兴发展

另外，从第二学年开始，通过选修课，学

的国际化氛围。”她介绍，上外MAB独

中国家。在企业高管中，就有卫哲和魏蔚

生可以选择学习“国际整合营销和公共关

具三大特色。第一，致力于培养源自于东

等知名职业经理人和一些跨国企业的区域

系”“全球时尚和奢侈品管理”“国际金

方的新一代复合型“无国界管理”人才，

高管，他们的讲课受到了学生的追捧。不

融与财务管理”和“跨国经营与跨文化管

实现个人和职业发展的三个无障碍：无语

同地域、不同文化的教师队伍让学生们置

理”等不同方向的课程。他们可以通过参

言障碍、无专业障碍、无文化障碍，即在

身于多元文化的学习环境。除了典型的教

加商务英语和口语选修课来提高自己的语

交流层面会外语，业务层面懂专业，沟通

室授课以外，还会提供很多海外学习交流

言能力，也可以在选修课中学习一门第二

层面通文化；第二，上外MBA设置了四

的机会，如海外学习之旅、世界文化与商

外语。

个与上海地区乃至全国MBA院校互补的

务、中外合作研讨会等，营造轻松的学习

专业方向：“国际整合营销与公共关系”

氛围。

November 2013

潘聪介绍，今年在教学上将继续加大 国际化力度，上外MBA致力于打造“国际

化MBA项目”，2014年起学校将“国际

上外MBA中心已与两所海外知名院

战略创新发展之道。今年十一期间，另外

化”正式纳入课程体系，其中全日制英语

校建立了双学位项目的合作关系。申请该

一批学生完成了法国海外商业学习之旅，

班的学生必须参加海外合作交流项目，所

项目的学生将分别在上外MBA中心和对

主题是“中西方文化差异下的奢侈品内

有参加海外合作交流项目的学生均由校方

方院校学习一年或一年半时间，并接受双

涵”，给同学们带来了对奢侈品的全新的

提供相应的专项奖学金。

方院校的论文考核，获得两所院校颁发的

理解和体验。

据介绍，2014年上外MBA仍提供全

双学位证书。此外，还与多所著名商学院

上外60多年的语言教学优势对MBA

日制英语MBA、在职英语MBA和在职双

建立交换项目，其中大部分位于欧洲、北

学生颇具吸引力。“我们对2013级学生

语MBA三类项目，计划招生200-250人，

美和东亚地区。参加海外合作交流的上外

所做的调查表明，约有25%的学生希望能

奖学金总金额接近300万人民币。与往年

MBA学生不仅可以学到基础的商业知识，

够通过上外MBA的学习，同时加强自己的

一致，2014年招生继续仍采用预复试、复

还可以同当地学生分享学习经验，体验国

语言背景。而瑞典语、法语、西班牙语等

试相结合的政策。

外文化，结识国外朋友。

小语种也是上外的优势，这在海外学习之

另外，每年的海外商业学习之旅

旅、海外交换等合作项目中得到了淋漓尽

体验跨文化魅力

(BST)为学生创造了“走出去”的学习机

致的体现。今后，我们还会向中南美洲和 中东等地拓展合作项目。”潘聪说道。

让学生切身体验跨文化的魅力是至关

会。今年8月19日起，20名学生开始了为

重要的。因此，上外MBA鼓励学生通过多

期8天的新一届海外学习之旅— 探索瑞

种海外合作交流的途径获得国际经验。学

典战略创新管理的秘密。此次海外学习的

生可以通过参加国际交换，海外学习之旅

重头戏是完成“战略创新管理”课程的学

为了帮助学生明确职业方向、拓宽职

等丰富自己的商业知识和国际经验，体验

习，课程在瑞典著名的哈尔姆斯塔德大学

业发展道路，“今年将引入软技能测评体

不同的文化环境。参加海外交换的学生不

展开。企业参访同样是不可或缺的一站，

系。软技能一直是我们强调的重点，学校

需要额外支付对方院校的学费，只需承担

学习之旅的最后一天，参观了沃尔沃工

希望通过这个测评让学生更了解自己的职

一定的生活费用和来回机票即可。

厂，深入学习了老牌汽车制造企业独特的

业兴趣和潜力。”潘聪说道。上外MBA也

拓展高层次通道

一直对学生的创业加以鼓励和支持，并为 他们搭建了平台。如在今年毕业典礼上， 就让学生展示创业项目，其他学生有需 求，可以当场洽谈合作。她介绍，今年3月 份对一批在职班的毕业生做过统计，其中 近46%的工作有所改变，包括岗位提升或 者创业。 MBA学生毕业前后收入的变化是一 个重要的衡量指标。潘聪透露，上外MBA 入学的平均年龄是30岁，平均工作年限是 8年。入学前平均年收入20万元，经过2年 半的学习，毕业后年均收入提高到了30万 元，增幅达50%。“希望明年能在教育部 考评中获得‘优秀’等级，同时申请获得 更多的国际认证。”在谈到在新一年的计 划时，潘聪说道。 国内MBA教育经过多年发展，已逐 步走向细分市场需求和细分专业，提供差 异化产品的方向。MBA教育不仅给个人带 来了全新的思维方式，也为职业经理人开 拓出更多的发展空间。在中国企业国际化 的进程中，高质量的国际化管理人才始终 授课老师来自10多个国家和地区

是市场上最为紧俏的。

November 2013

55

REPORT

A financial revolution?

Alibaba is testing a radical new approach to banking that has the potential, if allowed to develop, to fundamentally change China’s banking industry

Z

hejiang Alipay E-commerce, the online payment arm e-commerce giant Alibaba Group, has taken another bold step into the financial sector – hopefully one in the right direction.

In a purchase that surely turned heads at Chinese banks, the company announced on October 9 that it would take a majority stake in Tianhong Asset Management, a provider of financial services on the mainland. It said the US$192.7 million deal would help it provide security and innovation on its way to becoming a player in the financial industry, a track Alibaba has charged since June when it opened an internet finance outfit.

Traditional banks, however, may view the buy-up as a siege on a sector

long guarded by the state. Particularly troubling to both regulators and state banks is the competitive return Alibaba’s online finance operation, known as Yu’EBao, offers on deposits while traditional financial institutions are stuck at a government-set rate.

Big banks aren’t sweating yet, though. While the regulatory jury is still out on how to handle the private push into internet finance, some of China’s biggest financial players are preparing forays of their own into the digital ether.

The results from an inter-ministerial investigation into internet finance, called the biggest probe of its kind to date, threatens to bury much of the rapidly expanding industry in paperwork and red tape.

Internet finance is shaping up to be the next battleground in China;s fast-grrowing financial services industry

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November 2013

In the spotlight And expanding it is. Several wellknown private companies have pushed into the online financial space before the government has found time to draft a strong set of industry guidelines. Alibaba, Baidu, Qihoo 360 Technology, Tencent Holdings, and even the electrical appliance retailer Suning are just some of players that have either opened online finance shops or aspire to.

Alipay launched an online fund called Yu’EBao on June 14. The service is ambitious but could attract some regulatory scrutiny. Customers that put money into Yu’EBao can earn an annual forecasted return of 3.8% on investments as opposed to the 3.5% rate fixed by the government at tradi-

tional banks.

That fund will put its investments into competition with bank deposits.

People’s Bank of China (PCOB) liberalized interest rates on loans in June but has held steadfastly to its control over deposit rates. The financial industry is still waiting on that final reform, that would introduce a market mechanism for deposits and force banks to compete for depositors.

Alibaba is stepping around that reform, at least for now. Regulatory oversight that spans seven different bodies could take issue with the fund.

In August, the State Council called into the room PBOC, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security and the Legislative Affairs Office.

“The size of the undertaking indicates the importance placed upon the industry by regulators, as well as their expectations for rapid sector growth,” Shanghai-based Z-ben advisors said in a note in August.

A needy niche A heavy-handed push against internet financiers such as Alibaba seems in the cards. Still, the government has good reason not to stamp out the green shoots of the industry just yet.

Internet finance will largely focus on providing capital to a segment of the market big banks have long ignored.

“Internet companies will enter into a few niche market and will prevail in small and medium enterprises lending,” Ning Zhu, a professor at Yale

E-commerce giant Alibaba is taking the plunge in online finance

and the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, told China Economic Review.

China’s new administration under Premier Li Keqiang has recognized the importance of feeding entrepreneurs and the private sector with credit. A shortfall in that segment of the market birthed a massive shadow banking market four years ago where capitalstarved businesses survive on highinterest loans. At the same time, big, state-backed firms have thrived while smaller industry has gone into retreat.

A July notice from the State Council has attempted to fight against those trends, promoting privately owned banks that would lend to small and medium enterprises. If reformers prevail at internet finance investigation, that industry too may find similar support.

David vs Goliath Government backing aside, Alipay’sYu’EBao has quickly garnered attention from the people at large. Just two weeks after its initial launch, the online platform had 2.5 million customers transfer around US$934 million (RMB5.7 billion) into the fund and within two months. Investment in Yu’EBao had exceeded US$3.27 billion.

The success hasn’t gone unnoticed.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) is one of several institutional giants to announce it was wading into the market. The bank plans to launch an internet finance platform but has yet to reveal any details on the project.

Competing directly with state firms, especially with the likes ICBC seems a daunting task for private firms. Despite the positive reaction from the market, private internet finance could find itself mired in regulation if it steps too far into the territory of governmentcontrolled banks, an area unfamiliar with market rule. “[It’s] promising but risky,” Zhu said on the prospects of the industry.

“As internet finance companies grow, they will face increasing regulatory scrutiny, which increase the compliance costs and cost of capital.”

The results from the State Council’s investigation will be telling, not just for the future of online financing, but for the life of private business in China and the caliber of real reform currently underway. No one is waiting in earnest more than the leaders at Alibaba, who have pushed ahead with huge purchases such as Tianhong AMC despite the high risk.

November 2013

57

REPORT

Blenders to banking China’s white good giants set their sights on private banking

W

hen China opened the lowest tier of its banking sector to full private ownership in July, it may have anticipated the rush into the industry that would follow just two months later.

It’s unlikely, however, that technocrats in Beijing foresaw Chinese home appliance firms as frontrunners.

That’s exactly what has happened.

In mid-September, Suning Commerce Group, a white goods retailer, got regulatory approval to become one of the first domestic private companies to control a retail lender in China.

More appliance makers have followed. Gree Electric Appliance said in late September in a filing with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it would apply to open a bank. Midea Group, another leader in white goods, has also added its name to the list.

By one count, 27 companies, many of them well-known on the mainland, have either applied to open a private bank or intend to do so.

Private investment in China’s banks isn’t completely new. In 1996, the government approved the establishment of Minsheng Bank, which was mainly controlled by at least nominally private investors. But Minsheng has remained the sole bank to operate with a perceived minimum of state control.

Exactly a decade later, the government sought to attract private capital in village and town banks, the lowest tier of the country’s banking sector

58

November 2013

and, due to the small scale of the institutions, one with relatively low risk.

Until now, about 70% of that market has been held by small, private shareholders. Rules ensured government control via state banks, which were required to be the largest shareholder.

That model was unsuccessful in attracting significant attention from the private sector. The number of village and town banks set up since 2006 has far undershot the official target.

July’s notice from the State Council, which promoted full private ownership in village and town banks, has generated a great deal more interest.

Suning’s jump into banking has done wonders for its stock after a troubled first half. Since it announced its application for a banking license on August 23, its share price has climbed.

While the firms’ valuations may have improved, that’s not what the government set out to do when it opened

the sector. In fact, the liberalization of village and town bank ownership may not have even been done to reform the banking sector. Deregulation at the bottom of China’s banking industry is not expected to spread upward to municipal or joint-stock banks.

Instead, the government hopes that privately controlled small banks will extend credit to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that are overlooked

by China’s bigger financial institutions.

For small firms, capital can be hard to come by. The country’s IPO market is at a standstill, private equity and venture capital funds are shrinking and state banks prefer to lend to state-backed firms with low levels of risk. SMEs have starved under these conditions. In places like Wenzhou in Zhejiang province, the tight liquidity environment for entrepreneurs has contributed to China’s swelling shadow banking sector.

Private banks, disconnected from the state behemoths, will likely be more willing to lend to small companies. Town and village banks are known for having a solid on-theground understanding of the business environment that will allow them to better assess risk, which they can price in accordingly.

In that sense, Beijing hardly cares what kind of firms establish private banks – as long as they feed the private sector that government-backed lenders have neglected.

REPORT

RMB and the city London is to start trading China’s currency, but it may have trouble spending all that yuan

W

ith much fanfare, London was announced as the second location that can take yuan circulating offshore and invest back into the mainland. Investors, however, are unlikely to rush to take part – at least not in the short term.

China said it would grant investment firms in London a US$13.1 billion (RMB80 billion) quota to invest in the mainland stock and bond markets along with some other monetary instruments. To date, only Hong Kong has enjoyed the privilege.

China’s capital account is still largely closed to the outside world. Global investors looking to buy mainland securities must apply to one of two programs that allows cash outside of the country to flow into its markets.

Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) status, which China promised London, allows qualified investors such as commercial banks to put yuan sitting overseas back into the mainland market.

Another program, QFII, allows for investments not denominated in yuan. Hong Kong by and large leads the offshore yuan market with about RMB700 billion in yuan deposits.

Permission for London to join RQFII was no surprise. In July, China’s securities regulator marked out London and Singapore as leading candidates. Taiwan, where transactions can now be settled in Chinese yuan, is also in line for a RQFII quota.

Plenty of pomp surrounded the

announcement, made during UK finance minister George Osborne’s visit to Beijing. But perhaps the UK’s economy will benefit more from Chinese investment in a huge “airport city” project in Manchester or nuclear power plant construction than yuan trading. That’s because interest in QFII and RQFII has waned recently.

One major reason for the lack of interest is the poor state of China’s securities market. The Shanghai Stock Exchange was one of the worst performing markets in the world last year.

The securities regulator has maintained a ban on IPOs for about a year after many Chinese firms inflated their valuations upon listing. Some insiders have remarked that the investment quotas are meaningless because global investors simply aren’t interested in Chinese securities at present.

More recently, a quick and unexpected tightening on liquidity by China’s central bank roiled markets and

spooked investors.

“The recent response to QFII or RQFII product subscription has not been that strong. One reason is after the June liquidity crunch the market has been slightly more cautious,” Becky Liu, a senior rates strategist at Standard Chartered, told China Economic Review.

Hong Kong’s investment quotas are also far from maxed out. Global funds truly interested in putting offshore yuan back into the mainland market would already be doing it through the territory.

Another reason an RQFII quota of RMB80 billion means little at present is that there is only about RMB100 billion in the city’s market. Investors would have to spend 80% of the quota to make use of the full quota at present. Singapore’s offshore yuan market has a similar valuation.

A more positive signal for offshore yuan and mainland investment is the turmoil in the US over hitting a “debt ceiling”, which, among other things could greatly hurt the value of assets denominated in dollars.

“With all of the talks over the debt ceiling going on in the US, some investors will actually choose renminbi as a safe haven to gradually diversify from dollar investments,” Liu said. After a period of uncertainty, the Chinese government has also allowed the yuan to appreciate, hitting new highs. If the trend continues, interest could revive in renminbi investments.

November 2013

59

话题

定位时代 中国制造向中国品牌成功转型的关键 文 | 张云

历

史一再证明，越是革命性的思想，

从营销和战略的角度，我们把美国

了然。由此可见，从更宏观的层面看，日

其价值被人们所认识越需要漫长的

企业主流的经营哲学称为A（America）

本经济长期低迷的根源远非糟糕的货币政

模式，把日本企业主流的经营哲学称为

策、金融资产泡沫破灭，而是J模式之下实 体企业普遍糟糕的盈利水平。

过程。 自1972年，美国最具影响力的营销

J（Japan）模式。总体而言，A模式最为

杂志《广告时代》刊登“定位时代的到

显著的特点就是聚焦，狭窄而深入；J模式

来”系列文章，使定位理论正式进入世界

则宽泛而浅显。简单讨论二者的孰优孰劣

营销舞台的中央，距今已41年。然而，时

也许仁者见仁，很难有实质的结果，但如

定位理论正由于对美国企业的深远影

至今日，中国企业对定位理论仍然知之甚

果比较这两种模式典型企业的长期盈利能

响，成为“A模式背后的理论”。定位理

少。

力，则高下立判。

论经过了四个重要的发展阶段。

四个重要发展阶段

从表面上看，造成这种现状的原因

通过长期跟踪日本企业和美国企业

20世纪70年代：定位的诞生。“定

与“定位理论”的出身有关，对于这样一

的财务状况，我们发现，典型的J模式企

位”最为重要的贡献是在营销史上指出：

个“舶来品”，很多人还未读几页就迫

业盈利状况都极其糟糕。中国企业普遍的

营销的竞争是一场关于心智的竞争，营销

不及待地讨论所谓“洋理论”在中国市场

榜样、日本最著名六大电子公司10年间的

竞争的终极战场不是工厂也不是市场，而

“水土不服”的问题。其根本原因在于，

经营成果居然是亏损108亿美元，即使是

是心智。心智决定市场，也决定营销的成

定位所倡导的观念不仅与中国企业固有思

利润率最高的索尼，也远低于银行的贷款

败。

维模式和观念存在巨大的冲突，也与中国

利率（日本大企业全仰仗日本政府为刺激

20世纪80年代：营销战。20世纪70

企业的标杆—日韩企业的主流思维模式

经济采取对大企业的高额贴息政策，资金

年代末期，随着产品的同质化和市场竞争

截然相反。由于具有地缘性的优势，以松

成本极低，才得以维持）。与日本六大电

的加剧，艾·里斯和杰克·特劳特发现，

下、索尼为代表的日韩企业经验一度被认

子企业的亏损相对应的是，同期美国500

企业很难仅通过满足客户需求的方式在营

为更适合中国企业。

强企业平均利润率高达5.4%，优劣一目

销中获得成功。而里斯早年的从军经历为 他们的营销思想带来了启发：从竞争的极 端形式—战争中寻找营销战略规律。（实 际上，近代战略理论的思想大多源于军事 领域，战略一词本身就是军事用语。） 1985年，《商战》出版，被誉为营销界 的“孙子兵法”，其提出的“防御战” “进攻战”“侧翼战”“游击战”四种战 略被全球著名商学院广泛采用。 20世纪90年代：聚焦。20世纪80年 代末，来自华尔街年复一年的增长压力， 迫使美国的大企业纷纷走上多元化发展的 道路，期望以增加产品线和服务的方式来 实现销售和利润的增长。结果，IBM、通 用汽车、GE等大企业纷纷陷入亏损的泥 潭。企业如何获得和保持竞争力？艾·里 斯以一个简单的自然现象给出了答案：太 阳的能量为激光数十万倍，但由于分散， 变成了人类的皮肤也可以享受的温暖阳

日本最著名的六大电子公司10年间的经营业绩居然是严重亏损

60

November 2013

光，激光则通过聚焦获得力量，轻松切割

坚硬的钻石和钢板。企业和品牌要获得竞 争力，唯有聚焦。 21世纪：开创新品类。2004年， 艾·里斯与劳拉·里斯的著作《品牌的起 源》出版。书中指出：自然界为商业界提 供了现成模型。品类是商业界的物种，是 隐藏在品牌背后的关键力量，消费者“以 品类来思考，以品牌来表达”，分化诞生 新品类，进化提升新品类的竞争力量。他 进一步指出，企业唯一的目的就是开创并 主导新品类，苹果公司正是开创并主导新 品类取得成功的最佳典范。 经过半个世纪不断的发展和完善，定 位理论对美国企业和全球企业产生了深远 的影响，成为美国企业的成功之源，乃至 成为美国国家竞争力的重要组成部分。

A模式企业 过去41年的实践同时证明，在不同文 化、体制下，以“定位理论”为基础的A

定位理论必将成为对中国营销影响最大的观念

模式企业普遍具有良好的长期盈利能力和 市场竞争力。

典型的A模式企业：依靠聚焦于游戏机领

成为中国家电企业中最赚钱的企业。

在欧洲，20世纪90年代初，诺基亚

域，开创了家庭游戏机品类。尽管任天堂

实际上，在中国市场，各个行业中发

受“聚焦”思想影响，果断砍掉橡胶、造

的营业额只有索尼的十几分之一，但其利

展势头良好、盈利能力稳定的企业和品牌

纸、彩电（当时诺基亚为欧洲第二大彩电

润率一直远超过索尼。以金融危机前夕的

几乎毫无例外都属于A模式，如家电企业

品牌）等大部分业务，聚焦于手机品类，

2007年为例，索尼销售收入704亿美元，

中的格力、汽车企业中的长城、烟草品牌

仅仅用了短短10年时间，就超越百年企

利润率1.7%；任天堂销售收入43亿美

中的中华、白酒品牌中的茅台和洋河、啤

业西门子成为欧洲第一大企业。（遗憾的

元，利润率是22%。当年任天堂股票市值

酒中的雪花等。

是，诺基亚并未及时吸收定位理论发展的

首次超过索尼，一度接近索尼市值的2倍，

最新成果，把握分化趋势，在智能手机品

至今仍保持市值上的领先优势。

型时期，成败的关键从微观来看，取决于 中国企业的经营模式能否实现从产品贸易

类推出新品牌，如今陷入新的困境。） 在日本，三大汽车公司在全球范围内

当前，中国经济正处于极其艰难的转

从J模式转向A模式

向品牌经营转变，更进一步看，就是从当

取得的成功，其关键正是在发挥日本企业

中国的情况同样如此。中国家电企

前普遍的J模式转向A模式。从这个意义上

在产品生产方面优势的同时学习了A模式

业普遍采取J模式发展，最后陷入行业性

讲，对于A模式背后的理论—定位理论的

的经验。以丰田为例，丰田长期聚焦于汽

低迷，以海尔最具代表性。海尔以冰箱起

学习，是中国企业和企业家们的必修课。

车领域，不断创新品类，并启用独立新品

家，在“满足顾客需求”理念的引导下，

令人欣慰的是，经过20多年来著作的

牌，先后创建了日本中级车代表丰田、日

逐步进入黑电、IT、移动通信等数十个领

传播以及早期实践企业的示范效应，越来

本豪华车代表雷克萨斯、年轻人的汽车品

域。根据海尔公布的营业数据估算，海尔

越多的中国企业已经投入定位理论的学习

牌赛恩，最近又将混合动力汽车品牌普锐

的利润率基本在1%左右，难怪海尔的董

和实践之中，并取得了卓越的成果，由此

斯独立，这些基于新品类的独立品牌推动

事长张瑞敏感叹“海尔的利润像刀片一样

我们相信，假以时日，定位理论也必将成

丰田成为全球最大的汽车企业。

薄”。与之相对应的是，家电企业中典型

为有史以来对中国营销影响最大的观念。

同属电子行业的两家日本企业任天

的A模式企业—格力，通过聚焦，在十几

如此，中国经济的成功转型，乃至中华民

堂和索尼的例子更能说明问题。索尼具有

年的时间里由一家小企业发展成为中国最

族的复兴都将成为可能。（作者系里斯伙

更高的知名度和品牌影响力，但其业务分

大的空调企业，并实现了5%~6%的利润

伴中国公司总经理，本文系作者为《董事

散，属于典型的J模式企业。任天堂则是

率，与全球A模式企业的平均水平一致，

会里的战争》中文版所作的序言）

November 2013

61

看中国

其味无穷 中国饮食文化对于食材的口感也极有讲究 文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

世

人皆有口腹之

文学境域以外的东西，没有著作的价值。

是选择吃“汉堡王”或“麦当劳”，两者

欲，进食不仅是

但是中国的伟大戏曲家李笠翁并不以为有

的口感或许没什么差别，但就更道地的传

维持生命的手段，亦是生

损身份以写菰蕈烹调方法以及其他蔬菜肉

统“快餐”而言，比如街边小店的面条、

活的乐趣。然而依我所

食的调治艺术。”他在书中写道。

水饺或者小吃，我发现人们往往会对不同

见，中国人对食材细节的

早在1975年上下，我的一名香港友

追求要比其他许多国家更

人托我寻找印有中国人进食场景的古典绘

“中国烹饪别于欧洲式者有两个原

高。中国饮食文化的精妙

画，以拍摄下来作为他新书的插图。我耗

则。其一，吾们的东西吃它的组织肌理，

不仅体现在食物的味道

费了大量时间，寻遍了几乎所有的中国古

它所抵达于吾们牙齿上的松脆或弹性的感

上，就连食材的口感也颇

画，却惊奇地发现描述类似场景的画作寥

觉，并其味香色。李笠翁自称他是蟹奴，

有讲究。在这方面华夏珍馐可与法国等美

寥。读者们或许对其中缘由知晓一二，但

因为蟹具味香色三者之至极。组织肌理的

食大国的顶级菜肴平分秋色。

鉴于饮食在中国古诗中的突出地位，这一

意思，不大容易懂得，可是竹笋一物所以

情况确实耐人寻味。为何在中国的古典画

如此流行,即为其嫩笋所给予吾人牙齿上的

作中难觅人们大快朵颐的身姿呢？

精美的抵抗力。一般人之爱好竹笋可为吾

晏格文

与其他许多民族和文化相比，中国人 通常更愿将可支配的收入用于购买食物和

摊位的同类面点有不同的评价。

上餐馆。20世纪中国伟大的哲学家林语堂

到了今日，中国的富人们通常喜欢在

人善辨滋味的典型例证，它既不油腻，却

先生在其《吾国吾民》一书中对“肚”一

供应私房菜肴的会所小聚。我曾在过去几

有一种不可言辞形容的肥美之质。”林先

字出现在诗歌中的频率问题进行了剖析，

年中多次入席过类似的会所午宴及晚宴，

生在书中表示。

得出的结论当然是屡见不鲜。这一结果无

菜肴皆为中国特色，且在我看来价格不

在我看来，上述描述是典型的中国式

疑是显示“肠胃”对中国知识分子和旧中

菲。尽管我喜欢品尝各色中华小吃，但对

语言，一个人对竹笋之质的偏爱与其身家

国各阶层重要程度的有力佐证。此外不得

中国的名菜却不甚了解，事实上我更钟情

几何并无关联。人人皆可有此念想。广义

不承认的是，这一状况至今仍未改变。

于日本料理。同时我也坚信，吃一片生鱼

地来说，食物的价值亦并非仅通过菜单上

片并不会产生什么政治影响。

的价码来体现。在很多情况下，便宜食材

“中国人的优容食品一如他们优容女 色与生命。没有英国大诗人著作家肯折节

然而从另一个方面来看，如今中国人

自卑，写一本烹调书，这种著作他们视为

吃“快餐”的现象也愈发普遍了。当然要

的口感或许要比私人会所供应的高档菜品 要更受赞许。

Food and texture China’s rising inequaliy is not spreding to food as the poor enjoy cuisine, that from the perspective of texture at least, is as good as anything found in elite dinng establishments

By Graham Earnshaw

E

very human being likes eating, we have to do it or we die.

But it’s true to say, I think, that Chinese people appreciate the finer points of eating more than people from many other cultures. There is a

62

November 2013

degree of detail with Chinese food and the eating thereof, with regard to not only taste, but also the texture of various foods which is matched by only the very top cuisines in such cultures as France.

Chinese people, it has been noted before, are willing to spend more of their disposable income on food and on restaurant visits generally, than people in many other cultures. That wonderful book My Country and My

LOOKING AT CHINA

People, by the great 20th century Chinese philosopher LinYutang, includes an analysis of the issue revolving partly around the number of times that the word “belly” occurs in Chinese poetry. The answer is, of course, that it occurs with great frequency. Which is as good a way as any of calculating the importance of the intestines to China’s intellectuals and by extension of all the classes in in the China of old. Also, this is one area where I think we can be pretty sure there are no differences between old and new China.

“The Chinese accept food as they accept sex, women and life in general,” wrote Mr Lin. “No great English poet or writer would condescend to write a cookbook, which they regard as belonging outside the realms of literature and worthy of the efforts of Aunt Susan only. But the great poetdramatist Li Liweng did not consider it beneath his dignity to write about the cooking of mushrooms and all kinds of vegetarian and non-vegetarian foods.”

Somewhere in the mid-1970s I had an assignment from a friend of mine who published books in Hong Kong and needed an image of a classical Chinese painting that included people eating food. I spent a considerable amount of time looking through classical Chinese paintings, and found surprisingly that there are very few in existence that include people eating or drinking.

Readers may have some suggestions as to why this would be so, but it is particularly strange given the fact that eating and drinking play such a prominent role in classical Chinese poetry. Why is it therefore that the process of eating and drinking is so rarely found in classical Chinese paintings?

Today, China’s wealthy often gather at extraordinary clubs with exclusive menus and the most exquisite cuisine items available. Over the past couple of years I have attended a number of lunches and dinners at such clubs and the food is very Chinese and I’m sure very expensive. While I enjoy many kinds of Chinese food, I am in no way an expert on the cuisine and in fact I prefer to eat Japanese food. It is my strong belief that there is no political implications in eating a piece of sashimi.

“Two principles distinguish Chinese from European cooking,” says Mr Lin. “One is that we eat food for its texture, the elastic or crisp effect it has on our teeth, as well for fragrance, flavor and color. Li Liweng said that he was a slave to crabs, because they had the

combination of fragrance, flavor and color. The idea of texture is seldom understood, but a great part of the popularity of bamboo-shoots is due to the fine resistance the young shoots give to our teeth. The appreciation of bamboo-shoots is probably the most typical example of our taste. Being not oily, it has a certain fairy-like “fugitive” quality about it.”

That description, it seems to me, is typically Chinese, and the appreciation of eating bamboo shoots is not related to how wealthy you are. Anyone can do it. By extension, the value of food is not related only to the price tag on the menu. It may be in many circumstances that cheap food is appreciated more from a texture perspective than the expensive foods in those private clubs.

November 2013

63

西游记

桃花盛开 晏格文（Graham Earnshaw）生于英国，现居上海。他以上一次落脚点为起点，行程从上海一路 向西，横贯中国。本月，他已行至云阳县中心。 文 | 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw )

作

为中国第四大直辖市，重庆的雅号 不少，“雾都”便是其中之一。当

日，我在一片白雾中沿着城区东北两三百 公里的山脉一路向下，附近的村庄若隐若 现，宛如人间仙境，只是不经意间轰鸣而 过的公共汽车有些煞了风景。 为能尽快到达云阳县中心，大部分时 候我都是沿着山谷持续下行，一路上人迹 罕至。然而就在一家小店门口，却看见十 几个男女老少围坐在一起闲聊。于是我便 借着买水的机会同他们打起招呼，希望能 由此换个落脚的地方。果不其然，他们热 情地邀我入座，并很快和我闲侃起来。其 中一位还评论道：“你的中文并不是很好 吧？” 我笑了笑说：“感谢你的直率。我

漫，与城中相比空气颇为清新，不禁让我

法。但若是两个跛足的人见面，则像是在

尽量多学习。”无论如何，实事求是总比

张嘴多呼吸了几口。但行人们却纷纷告诫

提醒对方这一人们有意忽视的事实，所以

说上一句“你好”就被人夸赞要感觉好多

我，这么做对身体不好。这是真的吗？我

还是互不关注为好。但这一次， 我停了下

了。

不仅疑惑道。潮湿的空气或许携带了病

来，一边敲打右腿一边对他笑着说：“同

菌，但此处却是香气袭人，所以我只能对

一条腿。”那名男子见状便咕哝了几句，

那些好心人耸耸肩，继续尽情地呼吸。

径自走开了。看起来他并不想和我谈这

山间的空气清新湿润，然而我却错 过了一两周前的油菜花季，这让人颇为扫 兴。如今梯田上仅剩下绿色的植被和枯黄

此时，一群家猪在主人的驱赶下奔

的花杆，很快这里又将迎来夏收。话说回

了过来。路旁农舍墙上的白色标语写着

一路标语不断，“农民致富靠读书”

来，虽然我错过了油菜花，却正赶上桃花

“保持共产党员的先进性！”“种鸦片要

其中一条这样写着。之后便又是几条禁止

盛开。

坐牢！”。

种鸦片的警示语，接下来的口号倒是与

路边载满了桃树，一年中的大部分光

穿过层层迷雾，我发现一个男人正朝

“中国何处去”的主题颇为相关，“学

景它们都毫不起眼，花期仅有短短几周。

我走来。有趣的是他颠簸走路的样子与我

法、知法、护法，为你、为我、为大家”，

一路上落英缤纷，满是泛紫的白色桃花花

颇为相似—右腿稍短于左腿。

落款是“水口乡人民政府”。

对于跛足的人而言— 至少就我个

就在桥下的岩壁上，一张印有文字

街店早已打烊，沿途难觅摩托车的

人来看，通常不会意识到自己走路一瘸一

的A4纸张贴在正中，而文件角落卷起的

身影，更不必说来往的车辆。山中白雾弥

拐，而且我相信周围的人对此也毫无想

缝隙中则藏有一条小蛇。“告示”上面写

瓣。

64

个。

November 2013

T R AV E L J O U R N A L

着：“今年来，部分外来人员未经我厂同 意，擅自进入我厂生产区域烤火、睡觉。 为此，我厂曾多次向水口乡人民政府反

A misty morning

员中毒、烧伤等人身伤亡事故。为了确保

Graham Earnshaw was born in England and has been walking west from Shanghai across China since 2004, always starting each trip from exactly the last place he stopped. This month, we find him near Yunyang

我厂的安全生产及人员的人生安全，外来

By Graham Earnshaw

映，并要求外来人员退出，但至今仍有部 分外来人员经常擅自进入。由于我厂生产 过程中需要对砖坯进行烧制，可能发生人

人员未经我厂同意一律不得进入我厂生产 区域，若擅自进入发生事故，我厂将不承 担任何法律责任。（起草人）云阳县兴旺 砖厂， 2008年12月10日。” 看起来这里面有不少故事，可是在向 好几个人打探情况后，我发现无人知情。 该则告示的疑点颇多：首先外来人员都包 括了谁？他们从哪里来？为何会搬来云 阳？为何又住在砖厂的生产区域？厂里开 展生产时他们为何不搬离？事故伤亡人数 是多少？谢天谢地，在中国总有谜一般的 事件等待着你去探究。否则，呆在这里又 有什么意思呢？ 尽管眼前迷雾漫漫，但从声音来判 断，我似乎已到了云阳县中心。于是，我 便加快脚步，意欲穿过此地到达沿岸的万 州或万县。此地早在数百年前就已声名远 播，始终是重庆东岸、三峡西岸最大的城 镇，也是我的偶像—19世纪末女旅行家 伊莎贝拉•伯德1898年穿越中国西部时下 船前往成都的地方。能够在旅途中追随她 的脚步，并尽可能体味她的感受一直是我

C

hongqing is known amongst other things as the “city of mists”, and the mountains two or three hundred kilometers northeast of the city proper, still within what is now known as Chongqing municipality, were shrouded in a wet white spring fog for a full two days, which made it impossible to see much of the countryside, but provided a muffled sense of peaceful isolation.

Except when a bus roared unexpectedly out of the midday gloom.

I was walking mostly downhill through the mountains towards the Yunyang county seat, and there were few people on the roads. I stopped at a little store where a dozen or so people of all ages were sitting and chatting, and bought a bottle of water to create

an opportunity for them to offer me a seat. Which they did. We talked for a few minutes, and one of them said, “So your Chinese is not very good, is it?”

I laughed. “Thank you for the directness,” I said. “I try my best.” A reality check is so much better than the usual lavish praise for saying “ni hao”.

The country was very green in the moist air, but I had missed the yellow splash of rapeseed flower season by a week or two, which was disappointing. The deflowered rapeseed plants were lying prone in the terraced fields, minty-green mattresses of vegetation, soon to be replaced by summer crops.

But while I had missed the rapeseed, I caught the peach blossom season.

I passed many peach trees along the road, anonymous for most of the

的夙愿。 然而不知不觉我来到了枇杷村。枇杷 是四川东部山区一种杏仁状水果，而我恰 好赶上了枇杷上市的季节（5月中旬）。一 路上随处可见兜售枇杷的水果摊，但店主 们似乎是在与大自然竞争—沿途有数不 尽的枇杷树，果实摇摇欲坠，任人采摘。 尽管如此，水果摊贩们的生意依然不错， 尤其是巴阳镇的一个村落，那里的客人似 乎都是万州城内的中产人士。他们开着车 来此欢度周末，顺便再买上几袋水果。 枇杷3元一斤，价格不贵。我当然不 会错过，也在水果摊上买了些，周围的小 贩们争着让我再多买些。“明年吧。”我 表示。

November 2013

65

T R AV E L J O U R N A L

year, then bright white smudges on the fields for a couple of weeks. The ground beneath the trees was covered with masses of delicate and decaying blossoms, mostly purple tinged in this region.

Shops were shuttered and there was little traffic on the road, not even motorcycle ferrymen. Everywhere was the mist. I like to breathe deeply on my walks, to clean out the air of urban China, but I was warned by a couple of people not to breathe too deeply of the mist as it was unhealthy. Is that true, I wondered? Misty air holds moisture which could carry germs, but the air was still sweet enough that I shrugged my shoulders and filled my lungs anyway.

A couple of pigs trotted by pulling along their owner, and I came upon a

66

November 2013

large white daubed slogan on a farmhouse: “Communist Party members must take the lead! Planting opium will result in a prison term!”

Through the mist, walking towards me on the same side of the road, I saw a man. But what was strange was that he was limping in exactly the same way do I do – right leg slightly shorter than the left.

People who limp – I speak for myself at least – are unaware in normal circumstances of the fact they are limping, and I believe most people who know me don’t give it much thought either, for the simple reason that I don’t. But a meeting between two people limping forces both to remember what they would prefer to ignore. We limpers generally look away from each other, but this time

I stopped and slapped my right leg.

“Same leg,” I said with a smile. The man grunted and walked on without stopping. It was not a conversation he wanted to have.

“For farmers to become prosperous they must read books”, said a slogan, followed by several more opium warnings, and then a slogan of relevance to one of the key themes in terms of the great Whither China question: “Learn the law, know the law, protect the law, for you, for me and us all.” It was signed by the Shuikou local government.

On a wall under a bridge, I saw a notice pasted, an A4 piece of paper with a printed message. The corner of the document was curled and there was a snail hiding underneath the curl. “Notice,” it said. “Over the past

year, some non-local people without approval from our factory, have moved into the production areas of our factory and lit fires and slept. With regard to this, our factory has on numerous occasions made representations to the Shuikou people’s government and called upon the non-local people to leave, but today some of these people are still in place. Due to the fact that during the production process, our factory needs to fire bricks, it is possible there have been incidents in which people have been poisoned and burned etc, with some people being injured and killed. In order to ensure the safety of production at our factory, as well as the personal safety of the staff, non-local people are not allowed to enter the production areas of our factory without permission, and if there are any accidents that occur as a result of such entries, our factory does not bear any legal responsibilities. (signed) Yunyang Xingwang Brick Factory, December 10, 2008.”

There was a story here of some sort, and I asked a few people but could not find anyone who knew of the situation.

The notice raised so many questions.

Who were these non-local people?

Why had they moved to Yunyang and from where? Why were they squatting in the production area of a brick factory? Why did they not move away when production got underway? How many people had died? China, thankfully, remains a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Otherwise, what is the point of staying?

By now, I could hear Yunyang county seat in the distance, but I couldn’t see it because of the mist. I was eager to pass through it and move

on to the next major town along the river – Wanzhou, or Wanxian as it has been known for most of the past couple of centuries. This was and is the largest town on the river east of Chongqing and west of the Gorges, and it was the place where my hero Isabella Bird, the intrepid adventurer of the late 19th century, left the river on her journey through western China in 1898 and struck out across the Sichuan basin for Chengdu. My intention was to follow her path as closely as possible, and to match my unworthy impressions against hers.

But first, I found I was in pipa country. Pipa is the name of a small apricot-like fruit found in the mountains of eastern Sichuan, and I hap-

pened to be passing through at the height of pipa season, in mid-May. Along the roads were little stalls set up by farmers to sell piles of pipa, but they were competing with Nature itself. I passed countless trees laden with the fruit right by the road, easy for anyone to pick. Business was brisk nevertheless, particularly in one village of the Bayang township, where I found the new middle class from Wanzhou taking a weekend drive out into the countryside in their new private cars to buy huge bagfuls of the fruit.

Price were low, only three RMB per jin, or half a kilo. I bought some, of course, from one stall, and the farmers at the adjacent stalls wanted me to buy more. “Next year,” I said.

November 2013

67

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Guangdong

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leasing@belvedere.com.cn

Levin Human Resources

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Savills Residence Century Park

Development (Guangzhou) Ltd.

Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

www.savillsresidence.com

www.levin.com.hk

Beijing

No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu

V15 4/F Goldlion Digital Network

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Road Pudong, Shanghai 201303,

Sandhill Plaza

Center, 138 Tiyu Road East,

Chaoyang

PRC

www.sandhillplaza.cn

Tianhe, Guangzhou, Guangdong

Tel: +86 10 5907 0055

Tel: +86 21 5197 6688

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

Tel: +86 020 2886 0665

Fax: +86 10 5907 0188

info@savillsresidence.com

Hi-Tech Park, Shanghai 201303

Fax: +86 020 3878 1801

Ogilvy Group

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

info@levin.com.hk

www.ogilvy.com

Leasing@sandhill.cn

Shanghai

Beijing

Shenyang

ADP China

9/F Huali Building, 58 Jinbao

Shenyang International

30/F Golden Bell Plaza, 98

Street, Dongcheng

Software Park

Huaihai Road Central, Shanghai

Tel: +86 10 8520 6000

No.860-1 Shangshengou,

Tel: +86 021 2326 7999

Fax: +86 10 8520 6060

Dongling, Shenyang City,

November 2013

69

LISTING Liaoning Province, 110167

15/F China World Tower 3,

Luwan District

Tel: +86 24 8378 0500

1 Jianguomenwai Avenue

Regus Jin Mao Tower

Fax: +86 24 8378 0528

Chaoyang District

31/F Jin Mao Tower

CHENDU (3 LOCATIONS)

88 Shiji Avenue

Regus Yanlord Landmark

Lujiazui, Pudong

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Regus One Prime

Tower

25 F, One Prime

Apollo Business Center

No.1, Section 2, Renmin South

No. 360, Wu Jin Road,

Apollo Huaihai Center [New]

Road

Hongkou District,

4/F, Fuxing Commercial Building

Jinjiang District

SHENZHEN (5 LOCATIONS)

139 Ruijin Road (No.1)

CHONGQING

Regus Futian NEO

Huangpu

Real Estate/HOPSCA

Regus Yangtze River

44/F, NEO Tower A

Shanghai

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

International Plaza

6011 Shennan Avenue

Tel: 021-6136-6088

Development Co., Ltd

33/F Yangtze River International

Futian District

Apollo Flagship Center

www.antinganting.com.cn

Plaza

Regus New World Centre

Apollo Building

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

22 Nanbin Road

(NEW)

1440 Yan’an Road (M)

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

Nanan District

23/F, New World Center,

Jing’an

Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

DALIAN

No. 6009, Yitian Road,

Shanghai

Fax: +86 21 6950 2833

Regus Dalian World Trade

Futian District

Tel: 021-6133-1888

jean.liu@chongbang.com

Center

SUZHOU

Apollo Tomson Center

12/F, 25 Tongxing Street

Regus Suzhou JinHope plaza

22/F, Tomson Commercial

Zhongshan District

(COMING SOON)

Building

The Executive Centre

GUANGZHOU (5 LOCATIONS)

11/F, Tower2, Jin Hope Plaza

710 Dongfang Road

Shanghai

Regus G.T. Land Plaza (NEW)

88 Hua Chi Street, SIP

Pudong

International Finance Centre

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

Shanghai

Level 8, International Finance

G.T. Land Plaza, No. 85

Regus Tianjin Centre

Tel: 021-6165-2288

Center, 8 Century Avenue

Huacheng Avenue

8/F Tianjin Centre

Apollo Xuhui Center

Pudong

Tian He District

No.219 Nanjing Road

16/F, Feidiao International Building

CITIC Square

HANGZHOU (4 LOCATIONS)

Heping District

1065 Zhaojiabang Road

Level 35, CITIC Square, 1168

Regus Euro American Centre

WUHAN

Xuhui

Nanjing West Road, Jing’an

4/F Euro America Center

Regus Wuhan Tiandi –

Shanghai

Xintiandi

18 Jiaogong Road,

Corporate Centre 5

Tel: 021-5158-1688

Level 5, Xintiandi, 159 Madang

Xihu District

8F, Wuhan Tiandi – Corporate

Apollo Hongqiao Center

Road, Luwan

NANJING

Center 5, No. 1628 Zhong Shan

26/F, New Town Center Building

The Centre

Regus Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Avenue

83 Loushanguan Road

Level 20,The Centre, 989

Tower (COMING SOON)

Jiang’an District

Changning

Changle Road, Xuhui

8 F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Shanghai

Tower, No. 2, Hanzhong Road,

Tel: 021-3133-2688

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Gulou District

70

SHANGHAI (21 LOCATIONS)

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November 2013

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