CER December 2013 by Seana Liu

DECEMBER 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 12 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

移动智能时代

Mobile era 移动互联新产品日新月异 China moves closer to 4G

2013ฤ12Ꮬఓ

EDITOR’S NOTE | 编者的话

智

能眼镜Google Glass的问世引燃了人们对可穿戴设备的畅想，

DECEMBER 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 12 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2013ฤ12Ꮬఓ

使之一跃而为炙手可热的年度话题，被视为继智能手机后又一

波移动互联浪潮。可穿戴设备究竟具有怎样的魔力？中国企业的发展机会在哪里？发展瓶颈又是什么？移动互联浪潮促使消费群体的生活以及购物、信息沟通形态发生颠覆性剧变，在影响网民消费习惯的同时也在变革营销的方式。碎片时间真正到来后，消费者的行为与过去有何不同？应该怎样把握消费者的脉动和市场的变化，推动移动营销的发展？中国在创意产业领域还缺少独创的理论体系。贺欣浩推出首部专

ၕ‫׶‬ᇎେ൐օ

Mobile era ၕ‫ྕ৻߂׶‬Ӊ௞ಸྕᄍၻ China moves closer to 4G

注商业创意的著作，希望从理论角度助推中国制造向中国创造的转型。网络视频与电视媒体的融合是一大难题。加盟酷6的资深电视策划人杜昉认为，电视媒体学习互联网思维，互联网从业者则学习电视媒体的专业度，通过网台融合以带动原创内容的提升。而将视频网站打造成“私媒体”的聚合平台，则是他真正看重的网台联动。

Executive Editor ᓍ‫ ܠ‬ Deputy Executive Editor ঃᓍ‫ ܠ‬ Editor-at-large ߲‫ ཽۈ‬ Associate Editors ‫૷ܠ‬

Liu Chen Philip Liu Graham Earnshaw Brenda Yang, Deng Dan

China Economic Review, English Editor ‫ ૷ܠ‬Oliver Pearce Staff Writer ᓟষཽ Don Weinland Interns ᓐಯ Miljan Glenny, Rachel Zhao Art Editor ගၣ‫ ૷ܠ‬Jason Wong Director of Sales and Marketing Pierre Zolghadri ሾ၉ှ‫ޝ‬ᔐପ Account Managers ሾ၉ளಯ Allen Xu, Ralph Wang, Jerry Cheng, Riikka Koponen Distribution Manager खቲளಯ Seana Liu Publisher ߲‫ۈ‬૦৩ China Economic Review Publishing Address ࢐ᒍ The Plaza Building, 102 Lee High Road London, SE13 5PT, England

如何因应移动互联大趋势？关键还是思维方式的转变。“变者通，通则久。”（《周易·系辞下》）相信移动互联时代的消费者会因此收获更为人性化的全新体验。

n an interconnected world the arteries of communication are increasingly cables and phone masts. They send data at the

speed of light across offices, cities, borders and continents. As technology advances new opportunities are opening up in a range of sectors, from healthcare to education and transportation, giving not only direct economic benefits but also enabling vital public services to reach greater parts of the population. A country as vast and sometimes fragmented as China is a great example of the benefits on offer. In order to maximize its potential, the government is speeding the rollout of new mobile communications networks. There are high hopes that within the next few months Beijing will have granted licenses for 4G, the next generation of mobile telecommunications. If it does, new capabilities will open

Room 1801, 18F, Public Bank Centre, 120 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong ISSN 2073-2570 Hong Kong printer 01 Printing Limited Suite M, 3/F, Tower 3, Kwun Tong Industrial Centre, 448 Kwun Tong Road, Kowloon ਓস‫އ‬ኯ Hong Kong ሧভ +852 3174 6136 Shanghai ࿟਱ +86 21 5187 9633-811 Editorial Department ‫ ݝ૷ܠ‬letters@chinaeconomicreview.com Sales Department (Ads) ሾ၉‫(ݝ‬ਓস) ads@chinaeconomicreview.com

December 2013

up, driven by the nation’s leading mobile operator China Mobile, which has already invested billions of dollars in the necessary infrastructure. The opportunities are indeed endless.

版权所有，未经版权所有人明确的书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式或媒介全部或部分翻印或转载本刊内容。所有内容除特别标明外，均为本刊采编人员完成。文章中提到的货币除特别说明外均指人民币。 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE CONTENT OF THIS PUBLICATION CANNOT BE REPRODUCED IN PART OR IN WHOLE BY ANY PERSON IN ANY JURISDICTION WITHOUT WRITTEN APPROVAL FROM THE COPYRIGHT HOLDER.

目录 CONTENT

12 14

ॖෂ৺ူ ጤࣅᒝถဟࡔ

ቤ਋‫ފ‬

The House View 10 China on Wall Street

8 如影随形

Month in Review 14 News briefs

12 ௡ୡ

ᓜ౺

Column

18 Playing with the numbers

16 医改升级蕴藏商机

Q&A 20 如何走出低谷期

22 Proﬁt from China

Cover story

ॖෂ৺ူ

28 Telecoms in China

25 下一座金矿

Report

32 移动变革营销

36 In the red 40 移动阅读制高点

38 Bail bonds

December 2013

目录 CONTENT

Cover story Telecoms in China

જᄌ

42 Comprehensive change

46 解读大国策

44 Upending reform 54 A second chance

50 以创意实现商业价值 56 Foreign homes 51 网台联动助力原创

52 企业并购渐趋活跃

57 Chinese banks abroad

47 View 45 One-child policy

ఘᒦਪ Looking at China

58 老而弥坚

59 Old age

ည૚Ą᯺ᔇᇝᎊ଑ 60 鸟鸣山更幽

December 2013

Travel journal

61 Ducks and double-eight

Riding on its successes worldwide, Lapp Group is delighted to announce its inaugural Chinese production. Group co-owners Mr. Andreas Lapp and Mr. Siegbert Lapp spoke to CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW about the new business

Could you give a brief introduction of Lapp Cable Works Shanghai (LCS)? Lapp Cable Works Shanghai is the group’s first plant in China and the 17th production facility worldwide. The newly-established manufacturing base features world-class technology and European standard machinery. This move is in line with our target of coming closer to customers with stateof-the-art facilities, and our ambition to manufacture brand products here. As a leading control cable brand in the world, why did Lapp seek to expand its footprint in China? We currently import most of prod-

ucts from Europe or from Singapore to China, which is good for the Chinese customers when they export their machinery outside of China. But when they sell the machinery in China, our products are costly because of import duties and transport costs. Therefore we decided to come here and start production, so we can help Chinese customers to save costs and have a more dedicated manufacturing base for them. What is Lapp Group’s growth strategy over the next few decades? Our strategy is very simple – we want to get close to our customers, and serve all of their requirements as far as con-

bringing all of our expertise, including selection of machines, to this market. The facility we use for measuring or process control is absolutely the best we have globally in the market, and that is what makes our products so high quality. We are very sure when we send out products, that they match the best standard you can have in the world for control cable like ÖLFLEX® or data cable like UNITRONIC®.

Mr. Siegbert Lapp

How can LCS stand out among Chinese peers in terms of machinery as well as other facilities? Undoubtedly, in this sector of the cable industry, we manufacture the best, most reliable products. We are

Could you give us an overview of the solutions and products LCS will offer? Lapp Group is manufacturing 10,000 different cable products (such as ÖLFLEX® and UNITRONIC®). Here in Shanghai, we currently manufacture 250 different products. But in the near future, we will produce roughly 1,200 cable products in this plant in Shanghai. For the next year when we start

Mr. Andreas Lapp

nectivity is concerned. We are keen to bring the security, the love and the freedom to each citizen in China.

production in LCS, the cable capacity is expected to reach 90-100,000 kilometers, and the turnover would be as high as RMB100 million. Lapp Group proudly boasts “originally quality, locally made” offerings. How do you understand the term “quality” and how important is it to you? To some extent, quality is a must for the whole market, but the Lapp norm is more than that. Maybe after safety for our people, quality is of top priority. In contrast, many of our competitors don’t care about this. Also, we value the quality for the benefit of our customers because we don’t sell a cable product, we sell security and love. We are the only one that has brand policy -- wherever the cable is produced, in Singapore, or in New York, it has to be of the same quality.

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

Reliably connecting the world

新观察

如影随形影子银行是否会成为下一波金融海啸的源头文 | 艺志

被

评为2011年中国小额信贷年度人物的张化桥所面对的是，中国经济

转型背景下出现的林林种种的影子银行。作为切实推进影子银行实体化的先行者，小额信贷行业在中国经济实体中不但已是国有银行的有益补充，还是盘活国民经济的重要力量。简单地将影子银行等同于放高利贷是失之偏颇的。影子银行的形式多种多样，民间借贷资本多如过江之鲫的主要原因是国有银行在小额风险贷款投资的缺失所致。需求决定供给。民企有强烈的融资需求，又无法从银行贷款，影子银行就应运而生了。中国实际经济生活中的负利率催生了6000多家小贷公司，无数的担保公司、民间借贷、地下钱庄以及委托理财和

真实的通胀会被影子银行揭露无遗

银行理财产品，这些都可以划归影子银行阿里和淘宝刚出现之际，社会对其信

房产中。很多学者认为中国的税率扣除通

张化桥在新著《影子银行内幕》中描

任度的考量也是极其严苛的。张化桥在提

胀的因素实际为负。在这样的情况下，张

述了影子银行体系的功能、监管、困境并

及阿里巴巴和大多数电商时，对它们能在

化桥认为贷款实际上就是一种“补贴”，

提出了改革建议，同时批评了监管的严苛

很大程度上逃脱繁琐而苛刻的监管艳羡不

按揭买房更是一种福利。而股市去除通胀

和缺失。就算是在小额信贷已经得到中央

已，并对它们可能在将来撼动金融业抱着

的因素实际上并没有下跌多少，不是股价

首肯的今天，当人们真地想去做影子银行

无比的信心。尽管存在诸多不尽如人意之

下跌了，而是钱不值钱了。于是，就导致

时，各种监管不力、不作为以及政策政令

处，但毕竟已在路上。影子银行正在经历

了表面上的经济过热，而实际上却是制造

的不畅通、地域的差异化等，就成了实实

不安和焦虑期，或许能从阿里金融的今天

业在衰退。

在在的阻力。如万穗小额贷款公司在面对

看到未来。

范畴。

绝对权威的银监会和各种监管下，在经历

然而，从另一个角度看，今天的流动

率和信贷失控导致信贷泡沫不能有效缩小

内部权力斗争后，几近崩溃。后来才重振

性过剩、低利率、信贷扩张、高通胀、房

和释放，下一轮全球经济危机将很有可能

信心找到了新起点。从中不难看出，投资

地产泡沫等都与影子银行密切相关。

由中国引发。张化桥预言：“中国创造了

影子银行在实际运作中的风险之大。

如果说过去二三十年中国经济的负利

通胀严重到了什么程度？为什么如此

地球上最大信贷泡沫，如未能及时将泡沫

张化桥认为国人应该感谢影子银行，

严重？为什么民企和国企都热衷于贷款和

释放，将很可能成为新一轮环球金融海啸

因为真实的通胀会被影子银行揭露无疑，

融资？为什么房地产价格居高不下？为什

的源头。” 这并非危言耸听。

银行存贷比长期不合理的现象将得以遏

么股市如此低迷？张化桥给出的答案只有

居安思危，警钟长鸣是应有的思维

制，影子银行会触发存款保险制度的诞

一个：低利率。低利率的问题也有其他经

方式。要想让中国经济脱离险境，首先要

生，与银行竞争可以刺激银行提高效率。

济学者指出过。徐滇庆教授在他的《房产

让政府这只手放开，转给市场这只“看不

更重要的是，影子银行支持了上亿人的就

税》一书中提到，即使开征房产税，房产

见的手”来运作，以求真正藏富于民。再

业。从这一点来说，影子银行在未来所起

依然是中国人最主要的投资渠道，因为把

者，政府的决策应该更专业，而不是拍着

的所用一定是至关重要甚至无可替代的。

钱放入银行利率过低，所以还不如投入到

脑袋做决定，更不能掩盖问题。

December 2013

Georgia, USA: Where the World Does Business 㖾ഭր⋫ӊᐎ˖ ц⭼㓿୶ѻൠ ր⋫ӊᐎоѝഭ൘ߌъǃᮉ㛢ǃ࣑᭯ǃ᯵⑨ǃ୶ъㅹ䟽㾱亶ฏ൷ᴹ⵰ᇶ࠷ਸ ֌ˈᡁ 1DWKDQ 'HDO ֌Ѫаᐎѻ䮯ˈ␡ᝏ㠚䊚Ǆᤱ㔝᧘䘋ৼᯩਸ֌‫ޣ‬㌫ӽᱟր ⋫ӊⲴ俆㾱ԫ࣑Ǆ

2013ᒤ8ᴸˈᡁᑖ亶Ҷањ⭡ր⋫ӊ਴㓗ᇈઈ৺୶⭼亶ሬ㓴ᡀⲴ儈㓗 ԓ㺘ഒˈ䎤к⎧ǃ⍾ইㅹൠ֌ᇓՐˈ䲿ਾ൘䶂ዋᒶ⾍Ҷր⋫ӊᐎᤋ୶ ᣅ䍴ԓ㺘༴Ⲵᡀ・Ǆԓ㺘༴Ⲵᡀ・᧘ࣘҶৼ䗩‫ޣ‬㌫Ⲵਁኅˈ൘↔ᡁԜ ⭡㺧ൠᝏ䉒ѝᯩሩᡁԜⲴ䲶䟽⅒䗾о✝ᛵ᧕ᖵǄ⇿њ෾ᐲ䜭㔉ԓ㺘ഒ ᡀઈԜ⮉лҶ㖾ྭⲴঠ䊑ˈ਼ᰦᝏ䉒⇿൪ր⋫ӊᐎᇓՐ⍫ࣘࡽᶕ᭟ᤱ ⲴՇཊహᇮǄ ൘ ᡁ Ԝ 䇯 ॾ ᵏ 䰤 ˈ ր ⋫ ӊ ୶ ⭼ 䗾 ᶕ Ҷ ⒆ े ‫ ॆ ਁ ޤ‬ᐕ 䳶 ഒ (Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group) оѝഭ≁㡚ؑ᚟ᴹ䲀‫ޜ‬ਨ (TravelSky Technology Limited) є њ Ա ъ Ⲵ ᣅ 䍴㩭 ᡧ Ǆ ‫ ॆ ਁ ޤ‬ᐕ 䳶 ഒ (Xingfa) ӗ૱ࠪਓ‫⨳ޘ‬40ཊњഭᇦˈоᇍ⌱ (P&G)ǃ䲦∿ॆᆖ (Dow Chemical) ৺㚄ਸ࡙ॾ (Unilever) 䗮ᡀҶᡈ⮕Չդ‫ޣ‬㌫Ǆ⧠䇑 ࡂ൘ր⋫ӊᐎ䇮・㖾ഭᙫ䜘৺ࡦ䙐ᐕলǄѝഭ㡚ؑ (TravelSky) ᱟѝ ഭ㡚オо᯵⑨㹼ъ IT 䀓ߣᯩṸⲴѫ㾱‫׋‬ᓄ୶ˈ䈕‫ޜ‬ਨᐢ൘ր⋫ӊᐎӊ ⢩‫ޠ‬བྷᔪ・Ҷ⹄ਁѝᗳˈԕᤃᇭᴽ࣑㤳തǄ‫ॆਁޤ‬ᐕ䳶ഒоѝഭ㡚ؑ ᱟ㔗йа䟽ᐕ (Sany)ǃ䎋ቄᇼ⭥ᆀ (Self Electronics)ǃѝ‫( ޤ‬ZTE) ǃ⎧ቄ (Haier)ǃ⎧ؑ (Hisense) ㅹѝഭ⸕਽Աъѻਾ൘ր⋫ӊ㩭ᡧ Ⲵਖཆєᇦѝ䍴ԱъǄ ራ≲ᴤཊⲴਁኅᵪ䙷৺ᔪ・䮯ᵏⲴ୶ъᖰᶕᴹࣙ‫׳‬䘋ր⋫ӊоѝഭⲴ ‫ޣ‬㌫Ǆ⧠ᴹ ᇦ䍒ᇼӄⲮᕪԱъ䘹ᤙሶᙫ䜘䇮൘ր⋫ӊˈ䲔ਟਓਟҀ ‫ޜ‬ਨ (The Coca-Cola Company) ৺㚄ਸव㼩ᴽ࣑ (UPS) ԕཆˈ䘈 ᴹнቁԱъҏ൘ѝഭᔰኅҶъ࣑Ǆ䲔୶ъਸ֌ཆˈ䘈ᴹՇཊր⋫ӊᐎ ෾ᐲо䈨ཊѝഭ෾ᐲ৺ൠ४䗮ᡀҶ৻ྭॿ䇞ˈަѝˈኡьⴱоր⋫ӊ ᐎ‫ޣ‬㌫ቔѪᇶ࠷Ǆ਼ᰦˈր⋫ӊѝഭ㚄ⴏо‫ޘ‬㖾ॾӪॿՊㅹᵪᶴҏ໎ 䘋ҶৼᯩⲴ㚄㌫о᮷ॆӔ⍱Ǆ ր⋫ӊᐎᤕᴹц⭼кᴰ㑱ᘉ઼ᴰ儈᭸Ⲵᇒ䘀ᵪ൪ˈԕ৺㖾ഭਁኅᴰ䗵䙏Ⲵ䳶㻵㇡⑟ਓǄѝഭнӵᱟր⋫ӊᐎⲴㅜа䘋ਓഭˈҏᱟր⋫ӊᐎ ਴ԱъⲴㅜҼབྷࠪਓⴞⲴൠǄᖰ䘄Ҿӊ⢩‫ޠ‬བྷ㠣ेӜ৺к⎧Ⲵ䗮㖾㡚オ (Delta Air Lines) ᰇлཊᶑ㡚㓯ԕ৺40ཊᶑӾ㩘ࠑ㓣Ⲵր⋫ӊ⑟ ࣑ተ (Georgia Ports Authority) ᔰᖰҍњѝഭ⑟ਓ෾ᐲⲴ㡚㓯䘋а ↕‫׳‬䘋ҶৼᯩⲴ䍨᱃ᖰᶕǄ ൘ր⋫ӊᐎˈԱънӵਟԕӛਇ䙊䗮‫࡙ׯⲴ⨳ޘ‬Ӕ䙊ˈ䘈㜭൘ᐎ޵ᝏ ਇࡠ⎃৊Ⲵѝॾ᮷ॆ≋തǄր⋫ӊᐎॾӪՇཊˈѝ᮷ᆖṑ৺࠺⢙䘹ᤙ ѠᇼǄᐎ޵нቁӛ䂹‫Ⲵ⨳ޘ‬儈ṑ൷䇮ᴹѝഭᆖ⭏Պо䎤ѝഭ⮉ᆖㅹ亩 ⴞǄ䘉Ӌ儈ṑवᤜր⋫ӊ⨶ᐕᆖ䲒ǃෳ唈䟼བྷᆖ৺ր⋫ӊབྷᆖㅹǄ ᡁԜ⴨ؑˈᛘሶ൘ր⋫ӊ᢮ࡠᤃᇭъ࣑ⲴᯠᯩᔿǄր⋫ӊᐎᤱ㔝䐫䓛 Ҿ‫ޘ‬㖾ᴰᇌ୶ᐎѻࡇᒦާᴹཊ䟽Ո࣯ˈަѝवᤜц⭼а⍱Ⲵ⢙⍱ส⹰ 䇮ᯭǃ儈㍐䍘Ӫ᡽ǃާᴹㄎҹ࣋ⲴՈᜐ᭯ㆆԕ৺䗀ሴᮤњ㖾⍢Ⲵ‫࡙ׯ‬ Ӕ䙊㖁㔌Ǆ䘉䟼㓿୶ᡀᵜվǃ≄‫઼⑙ى‬ǃ⭏⍫૱䍘儈ˈѪ㩭ᡧ䘉䟼Ⲵ ѝ䍴Աъᨀ‫׋‬Ҷ㢟ྭⲴᡀ䮯⧟ຳǄ 㲭❦ր⋫ӊᐎᤋ୶ᣅ䍴ԓ㺘༴䇮൘䶂ዋˈնր⋫ӊᐎ਴⭼亶ሬሶ⇿ᒤ ཊ⅑䇯䰞ѝഭǄր⋫ӊᐎᖸ㦓ᒨൠᡀѪҶୟа⺞ᇊ৲ኅ2014ᒤ䶂ዋц ⭼ഝ㢪ঊ㿸ՊⲴ㖾ഭᐎǄր⋫ӊᐎᱟ⭏⍫ǃᐕ֌ǃՁ䰢઼㓿୶Ⲵྭൠ ᯩǄ⅒䗾བྷᇦⲫᖅ Georgia.org Ҷ䀓ᴤཊؑ᚟ˈᡆਁ䘱⭥ᆀ䛞㇡㠣 sjacobs@georgia.org о Seth Jacobs ‫⭏ݸ‬㚄㌫Ǆ

As Governor of the state of Georgia, I, Nathan Deal, am proud of Georgia’s strong ties with China in key sectors such as agriculture, education, government, tourism and business. Continuing to cultivate this relationship remains a priority for the state.

In August 2013, I led a high-level delegation of state officials and business leaders to Shanghai, Qingdao and Jinan to celebrate Georgia’s new presence in China and to strengthen relations. We were overwhelmed with your generous hospitality and tremendous enthusiasm for our state. The members of the delegation cannot say enough good things about their experiences in each city. It was incredible to see maximum capacity crowds attend all Georgia events. During our visit, we welcomed Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group and TravelSky Technology Limited to our Georgia business community. Xingfa, which exports products to more than 40 countries worldwide and has strategic partner relationships with P&G, Dow Chemical and Unilever, is opening its U.S. headquarters and manufacturing plant in Effingham County near the coast. TravelSky is opening a research and development center in Duluth, Ga., to expand its services as the primary provider of IT solutions to China’s air travel and tourism industries. These companies join leading Chinese brands Hisense, Sany, Self Electronics, ZTE and Haier, who already have existing operations in Georgia. Developing opportunities and building long-term business connections helps strengthen Georgia-China relations. Many of the 16 Fortune 500 companies headquartered in Georgia have operations in China, including The Coca-Cola Company and United Parcel Service (UPS). Aside from business relationships, numerous Georgia cities have sister-city or community agreements with Chinese cities or districts, and the state of Georgia has a particularly close relationship with the province of Shandong. Organizations like the Georgia China Alliance and the National Association of Chinese-Americans (NACA) facilitate connections and cultural exchanges. Home to the world’s busiest and most efficient passenger airport and the fastest-growing container port in the U.S., Georgia imports more goods from China than from any other country in the world. China is also the second largest export destination for Georgia businesses. This trade is facilitated by multiple Delta Air Lines routes and more than 40 weekly shipping services to nine Chinese port cities from the Georgia Ports Authority in Savannah. As businesses enjoy Georgia’s global accessibility, they can also stay connected to Chinese culture within Georgia. Our state is home to a large Chinese population and numerous Chinese language schools and publications. Many of the state’s internationally recognized universities have Chinese student associations, research and study abroad programs, including the Georgia Institute of Technology, Emory University and University of Georgia. We are confident that you will find new ways to grow your business in Georgia. With the advantages our state offers, including a world-class logistics infrastructure, a talented workforce, competitive incentives and easy access throughout the Americas, Georgia continuously ranks among the top U.S. states to conduct business. Chinese companies also benefit from the low business costs, a moderate climate and an attractive quality of life. While Georgia’s investment representative is based in Qingdao, our Georgia leaders visit China multiple times a year. In fact, Georgia is the only U.S. state confirmed to exhibit at the 2014 Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition. I encourage you to explore why Georgia is a great place to live, work, play and do business. Visit Georgia.org or contact Seth Jacobs at sjacobs@georgia.org.

THE HOUSE VIE W

China on Wall Street Amid new Chinese listings, investors must learn from the past

hinese companies are slowly returning to the US equities market after a series of disastrous fraud cases in 2011. Investors, surprisingly, have taken an interest. So, hearts must have sank at 58.com and Qunar in late October when a report from short seller Muddy Waters sent shares at the US-listed Chinese firm NQ Mobile plummeting by 47%. The Both China-based firms planned to list on Nasdaq only days later. Chinese IPOs in New York all but dried up in 2012 after more than 150 Chinese firms were either delisted or simply stopped filing reports. The NQ short no doubt stirred up painful memories among investors, some of whom in 2011 discovered that the Chinese firm they had bought into had played with their books. Still, it didn’t conjure enough negative sentiment to hurt 58.com. Quite to contrary: The company that runs an online classified ad business and has been described as the Craigslist of China saw its stock price rise in the days after the IPO. Qunar, an online travel outfit, didn’t do as well though. While a far cry from the surge of Chinese listings the US saw in 2009 and 2010, appetite for mainland firms is growing. Two more Guangdongbased firms, 500.com and Sungy Mobile, plan to list soon. Shares at YY, a social media application maker and one of the two mainland firms to list in the US in 2013, have climbed more than 375% since its 2012 IPO.

December 2013

Still keeping secrets It’s a slow restart for Chinese firms in New York and, by most measures, a miraculous one. Just a year ago, many market watchers expected all US-listed Chinese companies to eventually be struck from the trading boards in what would have been the greatest slew of delistings in market history. At the time, the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), a body appointed by US Congress and entrusted with monitoring the accounting practices of US-listed firms, was locked in a long, drawnout battle with Chinese regulators. The PCAOB wanted access to the working papers of the accounting firms that audit US-listed Chinese firms. Without the power to thumb through such documents in search of irregularities, it threatened to deregister those accounting firms, which included the China affiliates of Deloitte & Touche, Ernst & Young, KPMG and PwC. That, in turn, could lead to the eventual delisting of Chinese companies in the US. China refused, calling the paperwork “state secrets” and threatening harsh punishment to any company that allowed US officials a peek into their files. Finally in June, after several years of negotiation, China gave the PCAOB a little face, permitting it to request working papers from Chinese auditors for investigation – but only if it could show reasons for suspicion. With the return of Chinese firms,

investors should remember that very little in the way of oversight has changed between 2010 and today. The deal between China and the PCAOB will not prevent malpractices in the future. Rather, cases of fraud can only be checked after they have happened. Working papers are still very much locked away from the prying eyes of the US – a continual violation of US securities regulations.

Meet me in the Caymans This deficit in oversight isn’t the only worry these days. There’s another vestige of the past still lurking in US equity markets called variable interest entities, or VIEs. A VIE is a method of structuring a Chinese business so that it appears to be a Chinese-owned firm and at the same time a company owned by investors in New York. Businesses opt for this route because China does not allow firms operating in sensitive sectors such as the internet to list abroad. However, it is possible to get around this obstacle by establishing a wholly owned foreign company and then making a contractual ownership agreement with a shell company based offshore. Many successful Chinese companies have used VIEs, including Baidu, Sina, and Qihoo, to name a few. That’s not to say the continued use of this structure – which is designed to blur the lines of true ownership – is wholesome. Anyone who bought into

58.com or Qunar last week, both of which use VIEs, should know the risks. The simple fact that the listed company is connected to the actual Chinese-based firm is one of the biggest dangers of a VIE. In cases of malpractice, fraud or ownership disputes that happen on the Chinese side of the arrangement, investors in New York have few legal means of getting to the actual owners. Plus, even if investors were to pursue legal action against the company in China, the Chinese government doesn’t recognize the VIE. NQ Mobile was structured with a VIE. However, if investors take legal action against the firm over the recent accusations, it’s yet to be seen how they will pursue the owners in China. For 58.com and Qunar, Paul Gil-

lis, a professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, said that due to the structure of the VIE, it will be impossible for the proceeds from the IPOs to be legally used to finance their businesses in China. “This, of course, is a huge risk factor,” he wrote in a blog entry late last month, noting that 58.com has reported significant losses. “If companies cannot use the IPO proceeds to fund losses in the VIE, how is the business going to survive?”

Fool me twice When it comes to eking out an existence without clear channels of capital, Chinese firms have it well figured out. Gillis pointed out that there were several ways of getting capital raised in

the US back to the Chinese operation through a VIE – albeit not legal ones. Investors eyeing new Chinese IPOs should keep well advised on the often regulation-bending tactics companies must go through to list in the US. They should also recognize that they are working in a regulatory environment little changed from 2010. A report from corporate investigator Kroll released last month showed that international companies doing business in China felt far more exposed to fraud this year than they did in 2012, largely because foreign executives dozed off to the threat for most of last year. Wall Street should resist that kind of collective amnesia and learn from what transpired in the past.

December 2013

聚焦

综合三中全会首提市场决定性中共十八届三中全会为未来制定了深化改革政策，提出了涵盖多个领域的广泛的改革内容。全会公报首次提出：建设统一开放、竞争有序的市场体系，是使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用的基础。这意味着非公有制经济将有更大的发展空间和机遇。

央行将退出常态式外汇干预央行行长周小川表示，央行将基本退出常态式外汇市场干预，并将逐步取消对合格境内投资者（QDII）和合格境外投资者（QFII）的投资限额。央行目前每天为人民币汇率设定中间价，即期汇率可在中间价上下各1%的区间内浮动。央行副行长易纲撰文表示，将逐步取消存款利率上限，

未来将实现境内外股市的互联互通

加快实现人民币资本项目可兑换。

跨境人民币结算将超4万亿

在2012年达到3.09，10年间年均增长

市场与公司

达0.7%。

境内外股市互联互通

央行预计，今年全年经常项目下跨境人民

新加坡交易所11月25日宣布，已与中国

币结算金额将突破4万亿元。目前人民币

中石化输油管线爆炸事故

证监会合作，为中国企业搭建直接上市框

已与包括欧洲央行在内的20多个境外货币

11月22日凌晨，中国石化位于青岛经济技

架，鼓励中国企业赴新加坡上市。央行行

管理机构签署了货币互换协议约2.57万亿

术开发区的原油管道发生爆炸导致泄漏。

长周小川近期提出，未来将取消QFII审

元，跨境循环体系基本形成。

截至11月25日，事故遇难者已升至55人。

批，实现境内外股市互联互通。另外，A

事故损失惨重，暴露出输油管道与城市排

股市场新股发行将实行注册制。中国证监

水管网规划布置的不合理。

会主席肖钢表示，股票发行注册制改革是

今年对外投资将达1000亿美元商务部部长高虎城近期表示，中国正在转

要以信息披露为中心，不对公司的持续盈

变成资本输出大国，保守估计今年中国对

富人海外资产6580亿美元

外投资会接近1000亿美元。不久的将来，

英国财富咨询机构财富洞察咨询公司称，

中国对外投资会超过实际利用外资。

目前中国富人在海外拥有约6580亿美元

国际金价7个月下跌22%

资产，约占其总资产13%，低于全球富人

国际金价已从4月12日每盎司1599美元，

前三季度消费持续增长

20%~30%的海外资产平均水平。胡润和

跌至11月27日每盎司1244美元，跌幅达

国家统计局数据显示，今年前三季度，消

中国银行研究发现，一半以上中国富豪正

22%。年末中国市场迎来黄金产品销售旺

费支出对GDP增长的贡献率是45.9%，拉

考虑移民或已移居海外。

季，金价大跌也勾起了消费者抄底欲望。

消费经济部主任赵萍预测，2015年中国消

中国划设东海防空识别区

高通遭反垄断调查

费总量可能会超过日本，2020年可能会赶

中国11月23日正式宣布划设东海防空识别

国家发改委启动对高通公司的反垄断调

上美国，成为最大的消费国。

区，涵盖东海大部分地区，包括钓鱼岛领

查。中国4G牌的照发放指日可待，中国移

空。因与日本防空识别区有很大重叠，日

动已在广州、深圳开通了1万个4G站点。

三名职工养一名退休职工

本政府反应强烈。美国白宫、国务院和国

高通希望从中国4G技术中获得巨额专利授

国家人力资源和社会保障部披露，2012

防部轮番指责中国。目前世界上已有20多

权费。一些分析人士猜测，此次反垄断调

年养老保险基金累计结余为2003年的13

个国家和地区建立了防空识别区，其中就

查可能有助于在与高通的专利授权费谈判

倍，抚养比（参保职工人数/离退休人数）

包括美国和日本。

中占据主动。

利能力作出判断。

动GDP增长3.5个百分点。商务部研究院

December 2013

比特币疯涨近80倍

出口的帮助，该公司将明年GDP增长预测

比特币成为最受关注的投资领域之一。

从7.4%上调至7.6%；并预计消费贡献明

今年1月，一个比特币兑换人民币100元

显上升，投资贡献下降。

至200元，10月中旬涨至约1000元，11

中国宏观经济论坛（2013~2014）发

月迅速飙升，11月19日盘中冲高至8000

布的中国宏观经济分析与预测报告预计，

元。分析人士认为，比特币价格走高的主

今年GDP增速为7.8%，CPI为2.7%；预

因是中国投资者进场。由于比特币不能与

计2014年GDP增速将达7.7%，CPI将达

世界主要流通币种交易兑换，投资风险极

3.2%。中国人民大学经济学院副院长刘

大。

元春认为，今年中国宏观经济基本延续了

分析与预测沪七条影响有限

2012年底部波动和复苏乏力的局面，宏观经济景气状况相对稳定，波动中筑底的趋势较为强烈。预计全年GDP增速为

随着近期上海房价的持续上涨，上

7.8%，CPI增速为2.7%。国家发改委宏

海市住房保障和房屋管理局于11月8日发

观经济研究院常务副院长王一鸣认为，从

布了房地产市场调控政策相关措施（简称

政策层面，明年经济保持7.5%的增长甚至

“沪七条”）。高力国际认为该政策的出

更高增速没有太大问题，中国经济正在进

台旨在进一步抑制投资型需求，限制部分

入7%~8%的增长区间。

改善型需求，并最终达到抑制房价增长的目的。该政策旨在对购房者予以警示信

2022年中国GDP超美国

360诉腾讯垄断案开审

号，而实质性影响却十分有限。此轮新政

渣打银行发布针对全球经济增长前

最高人民法院第一法庭于11月26日公开

的出台预计将会对上海住宅物业租赁市场

景的特别报告，预期中国新一轮改革的成

审理奇虎360上诉腾讯滥用市场支配地位

产生小幅影响，促使部分潜在买家暂缓置

功将起到至关重要的作用，2013~2020

案。这是《反垄断法》出台以来，最高院

业计划，转而选择租赁住房。租赁需求的

年期间中国年均经济增幅将达7%，

审理的首例互联网反垄断案。该案源于

增加预计将推动住宅租金小幅上升。从长

2021~2030年期间年均增幅将达5.3%，

2010年的“3Q大战”，双方曾分别起诉

期来看，为促进房地产市场的健康发展，

中国GDP规模将在2022年超过美国。

对方。今年3月广东高院的一审判决认为，

采取综合性的调控手段十分有必要。通过

到2030年世界贸易额将增长4倍，达

腾讯并不具有市场垄断地位。奇虎360上

集体土地的流转来增加新增供应，房产税

到75万亿美元。城市化和中产阶层人数的

讼的主张是，判令腾讯停止滥用市场支配

的有效实施以及开拓国内投资者的投资渠

壮大，尤其在亚洲，是世界经济增长的推

地位的行为，并要求腾讯赔偿1.5亿元。

道（而非投资住宅物业）等手段来最终引

动力量。到2030年，由中国和印度引领的

领市场平衡发展。

新兴市场在世界经济新格局的形成中发挥

上市房企否认欠缴土地增值税中央电视台报道，调查发现，2005~2012

更重要的作用，新兴市场占全球GDP份额

预测今明两年GDP增速

将由2010年的38%增至63%，日本以外

年间，45家知名房企应交而未交的土地

11月汇丰中国制造业PMI初值降至

增值税总额超过3.8万亿元，其中包括

50.4。摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌

SOHO中国、富力、万科、招商地产等。

发布研究报告称，10月经济活动数据略

新兴国家人口老龄化将拖累经济增

随后十余家上市房企公开否认欠缴土地增

好于预期，考虑到11月制造业PMI初值，

长。但对于中国这类劳动力即将减少的国

值税，国税总局也表示该报道对税收政策

短期内增长前景仍稳健。但第三季度可能

家而言，并非都是坏消息。劳动力的减少

和征管方式存在误解误读。

已经触顶，未来几个季度增长势头将放

或将促使劳工薪资上升，而这将鼓励企业

缓。预测今年和明年全年中国GDP增速为

投资高附加值产品及加工链。老龄化有助

7.6%和7.4%。

于形成经验更丰富的劳动力，这也将提高

李嘉诚再抛售在港资产

的亚洲其他地区将占39%。当前至2030年 70%的经济增长将来自于新兴国家。

李嘉诚旗下公司在11月26日前的一周内

中国国际金融有限公司发布报告称，

生产率。在中国，未来10年仍有许多农村

两度出售在港资产，共套现近13亿港元。

中国政府可能将明年GDP增长目标下调至

地区的人口将进入城市，城市化进程还有

市场分析人士认为是“香港房地产破灭信

7%。目前，政府正决心推行结构性改革，

很长的路要走。

号”。李嘉诚否认“撤资”，但旗下公司

引领中国经济走上更具持续发展能力的道

加大了对欧洲等地的投资并购。

路。考虑到内需扩张的惯性和全球复苏对

（本栏目内容根据公开信息整理）

December 2013

MONTH IN RE VIE W

NEWSBRIEFS China government bond yields reach nine-year high Yields on Chinese government debt hit a nine-year high as Beijing continued to tighten monetary control. The higher yields on government debt have pushed up borrowing costs broadly, creating obstacles for companies and government agencies looking to tap bond markets. Several Chinese development banks, which have mandates to encourage growth through targeted investments, have had to either scale back borrowing plans or postpone bond sales. The rise in borrowing costs and shrinking access to credit could undercut the recent uptick in China’s economy that global investors in stock, commodity and currency markets have cheered.

Reuters reported. The result met with expectations the economy could lose some of its vigor in the fourth quarter as Beijing shifts its focus to structural reform. The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4 from October’s final reading of 50.9. But it remained above the 50 line which demarcates expansion from contraction for the fourth consecutive month, indicating the government has achieved the stability it sought to push through reforms.

Sinopec pipeline explosion kills 52 in Qingdao The death toll from an oil pipeline explosion in the port city of Qingdao rose to 52, with 11 people still missing, said a statement by the Qingdao government. A total of 136 people were injured in the blast, with 10 in critical condition. Petroleum from the pipeline, which is owned by Sinopec (600028.SHA), has contaminated some 3,000 square meters of water and 18,000 people have had to be evacuated. Sinopec chairman, Fu Chengyu, has apologized and said it was cooperating with authorities in investigating the causes of the blast.

Chinese banks halt mortgage lending on limited quotas China factory growth slows in November: Flash PMI China’s vast factory sector notched up slower growth in November than expected as new export orders shrank according to a preliminary survey,

December 2013

by Rong360, a private search engine for financial products, showed that around 17% of mainland banks had stopped extending mortgage loans to buyers of first and second homes this month, with more expected to follow suit by the end of the year. The trend first emerged last month in top-tier cities, and has now spread to 17 cities.

More mainland banks have tightened mortgage lending extensions as their annual quotas run out and authorities ramp up restrictions on prices, the South China Morning Post reported. A survey of 500 banks in 32 cities

OECD sees China growth at 8.2% in 2014 The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said China’s economic growth may pick up from an expected 7.7% this year to 8.2% in 2014, Reuters reported. "Growth is accelerating and inflation remains low, domestic demand has led the turnaround," OECD said in its latest report on the global economic outlook. The OECD outlook was rosier than a recent Reuters poll that showed China’s economic growth could slow to 7.4% in 2014 from an expected 7.6% this year - the weakest

in 14 years. The government is aiming for 7.5% growth in 2013.

China to end normal currency intervention: PBOC China’s central bank said it will loosen its control over the value of the yuan just a week after the country’s top leadership concluded a major policy meet in Beijing, Bloomberg reported. People’s Bank of China will “basically” end normal intervention in the currency market and broaden the yuan’s daily trading limit, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said, without giving a timeframe. The daily range will be widened in an “orderly way” as China seeks to enhance the currency’s two-way flexibility, Zhou wrote in an article in a guidebook explaining reforms outlined following a Communist Party meeting.

It pledged to open the financial sector and relax curbs on other sectors closed to investors, allow prices of natural resources to reflect market demand and put more money in the pockets of rural residents who were often left out of the boom of the last decade. The meeting ran November 9-12.

BHP Billiton confident in China's economy Mining giant BHP Billiton top management is bullish about China’s economic future, The Wall Street Journal reported. Speaking at the company’s annual general meeting, BHP’s chairman Jac Nasser and chief executive said the Asian powerhouse’s policy agenda is reassuring at a time when slowing manufacturing activity and weaker export orders are acting as a drag on growth. BHP expects China’s economy to expand by more than 7% next year and for some 250 million people to move to cities from the countryside by 2028, supporting commodity demand.

China considers changing how it measures GDP

China details economic reform plan A document issued late last week filled in many of the details that went missing in an earlier communiqu_ concerning reforms discussed at the high-level party meeting known as the Third Plenum, The Wall Street Journal reported. The 20-page document amounted to a blueprint for reform.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics is considering changing the way it calculates the economy, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing Xu Xianchun, the vice head of the agency. Xu said the new system, which is being adopted to reflect ambitious reform plans announced after the third plenum, will reckon spending on research and development as a form of fixed capital and calculate it into gross domestic product. Xu also said that it will be in line with the latest international standards and it will be finalized around the end of 2014 at the earliest.

Gold vault for 2,000 tons opens in Shanghai A vault that can store 2,000 metric tons of gold has been opened in Shanghai to cater to the nation’s growing demand for the precious metal, Bloomberg reported. Owned by Malca-Amit Global, a precious metals logistics firm, the vault can also store diamonds, jewellery and art, said Joshua Rotbart, a manager with the company. The site could hold bullion worth about $84 billion. Gold consumption in China may increase 29% this year, overtaking India as biggest user as lower prices and higher incomes spur demand.

China to boost national security system China is planning to establish a new "state security committee" with the aim of integrating security apparatuses and handling unrest issues at home and abroad, Reuters reported, citing an announcement at the conclusion of the Third Plenum. Details of how the committee will work and when exactly it will begin operations were left unclear in the announcement, carried by official Xinhua news agency at the end of a key meeting of the ruling Communist Party.

December 2013

专栏

医改升级蕴藏商机解读二期医改并展望医疗健康产业的前景文 | 李玲北京大学国家发展研究院中国经济研究中心经济学教授

医

改始于2003年，

重点推进医保、医疗、公共卫生、药品供

71岁。医改以来的黄金10年，健康水平

到今年是医改的黄

应、监督管理体制的综合改革，这是基层

有了大幅度改善，今年人均期望寿命达到

金金10年，也是医疗产业发

医改的经验。而下一步“十二五”二期医

74.5岁。如果继续努力，到2020年实现小

展展的黄金10年。2006年确

改是基层医改的升级版。

康社会时，人均期望寿命水平可望达到79

定的医改方向是政府主导回归公益性，建立覆盖城

李玲

至80岁。如果能达到这个目标，就超过了

增加医疗投入

美国的人均期望寿命。

乡居民的基本医疗卫生制

二期医改政府会加大力度，因为占尽

新型城镇化不仅是给农民户口，而是

度度。2006年我们在全球征

天时地利人和。天时就是改革的环境，可

给他配套的城市公共服务，包括教育、医

集集了意见。从2009年医改

以看到大方向，医疗卫生领域是政府的职

疗、养老等。如果将中国农民的医疗卫生

方方案出台到去年称为医改一

责所在，应该要加大力度。

水平提升到现在城市的平均水平，市场空

期，现在是医改二期。二期方案就是去年

健康梦是比较实在的。1949年中国

间将会非常大。

人均期望寿命只有35岁，1978年增加到

中国经济转型升级的新增长点其实是

中国迈入新时代，领导人的执政理念

68岁，当时是世界奇迹。我最近去芬兰参

医药、医疗耗材和健康产业，欧美、日本

和执政能力将会起到非常大的作用。十八

加世界卫生组织的全球健康大会，与会的

早就将这些作为经济增长点。2008年金融

大关于医改方面的新内容，就是坚持要为

很多专家还在谈中国经验，就是80年代以

危机，美国经济下滑，但药品耗材、医疗

人民健康服务，按照保基本、强基层、建

前用很少的钱解决了这么多人口的健康改

设备却是两位数增长。中国也正在往这个

机制的要求，重点推进医疗保障、医疗服

善问题，也称为健康促进问题。

方向转型，空间也非常大。

国家颁布的“十二五”医改规划。

务、公共卫生、药品供应、监督体制综合

1978年到2003年的20多年中国创造

当然，对医改有些影响的是财政进

改革，完善国民健康政策。十八大关于医

了经济奇迹，但是人均期望寿命的改善较

入低增长周期。经济放缓以后，财政收入

改的新论述是基于过去4年医改的经验，将

缓慢，从1978年的68岁增加到2003年的

20%的增长势头难以保证，今年好一点能保证两位数，不尽如意可能降到10%以下。尽管政府财政收入在下降，但是投入到医疗的钱一定会增加。这也是非常好的消息。从改革大环境来看，保障民生是这届政府的重中之重，会从政策、财力方方面面加大政策的倾斜度。从医改的基本面看，前4年的医改为现在的医改奠定了比较好的基础，前4年是在探路，现在各方共识正在形成。尽管前4年的医改取得不少成就，但面临的压力也非常大。为什么？原因之一个就是政府一万多亿投进去，老百姓感受还不太明显。医改的大方向不会变，力度还会加大，特别是公立医院的改革，要求攻坚克难。药品的生产流通使用以及到公立医院

综合医院的核心竞争力是医生团队

December 2013

这条利益链短时期内不会天翻地覆，但是

这个链条必须被打破的趋势已不可扭转。财政总体会保持增长，地方政府层面则要看经济的走向。

引进社会资本还有社会资本开放的力度，很多人关心社会资本进入医疗领域，国家现在的政策还是鼓励做增量，尤其是往高端领域做，社会资本可以更多地满足多样性需求，而这也是在高端。很多人关注能不能进入公立医院的改制，可能难度稍微大一些。目前共有 30000所医院，公立医院还不到14000 所，民营医院已占据半壁江山以上，但还有很大投资空间。公立医院的转制成本非常高，可能在一些小城市操作容易一些，北京、上海还是有相当大的难度。现在社会矛盾比较大，公立医院毕竟是给民众提供医疗服务的主力军，社会资本应该更多地考虑做增量。全世界医院都是赔钱的，中国医院现

2020年中国人均期望寿命有望达到80岁

在赚钱就是在吃产业链，产业链被打碎以后，也赚不了钱。目前是不可持续的非正

三大医保职工、居民、新农合肯定要变成

药分开，而这是医和药的整合、医药公司

常状态。在国外你要坑谁就让他办医院，

一家，到底哪一家还没定，不过一定要整

和医院的整合。

医院是不赚钱的。美国较好的盈利性民营

合。从未来趋势看，医保会越来越多地介

在健康产业方面，首先是相关的服务

医院的税后平均回报率也就在3%。

入到医院的管理，包括费用的控制、药品

业，特别是老龄还有健康维护的服务业，

浙江、江苏那么多乡镇企业在30年

耗材器材的采购。北京正在酝酿直接由社

还有一个就是信息产业。现在是大数据时

时间内成为跨国公司，为什么医院就没有

保招标采购所有的药材、耗材，管理力度

代，健康信息不仅可以服务于客户，其本

一家能升级到跨省？仅仅是政策原因么？

和控制度都会加强。三大医保整合后力量

身就是资源，可以从中开发出无穷无尽新

在医疗这个行业，民营资本进入牙医、美

会更大。

的服务和新产业。马云美其名曰“退出阿

容相对风险低一些。而综合性医院的核心

还有药品政策的调整，发改委还会

里巴巴”，其实他是进入阿里金融或者阿

竞争力是医生团队，把专家、医生聚在一

降价，支付方介入采购会成为趋势。最近

里大数据创造出来的新产业。在医疗健康

起不容易，不服从是知识分子的强项，不

很大的变化是政府采购的国产化，包括政

产业，信息化是最好的机遇，中国难得的

像管理企业那么容易，要像管企业那样根

府用车、各种耗材、办公用品都开始国产

机遇在于拥有13亿人口。把这些数据采集

本管不了。很多民营资本也在投医院，最

化，这也是国际趋势。下一步支付方社保

起来就是金矿，就看怎么挖掘，创造出背

后效果不是太好，能不能首先聚起一个团

进入采购，介入药品耗材器械采购，国产

后的服务和新产业。

队，再就是怎么管理好，但是非常难。

化一定是长远的趋势，投资空间非常大。

未来要建立的国家基本医疗卫生制

社会资本进入医疗产业空间非常大，

中国是13亿人口的大市场，而且还是即将

度，就是综合监督管理体系、多元投资体

产业链很长。具体投资哪个领域建议仔细

老龄化的市场，相应的药材、器材器械的

系、整合医疗服务体系，就是全民终身健

考察国外的情况，国外的发展趋势就是我

市场空间很大。

康保障制度。而信息化是最好的手段，其

们将来要走的。看看欧美的医院到底有多赚钱，再决定投或不投。

创造全新产业这一轮改革是医保整合的问题，现在

二期医改的走向就是医疗、医保、医

中各个人群和年龄的需求完全不同，完全

药的联动。可能是政府来联动，也可能通

可以基于这个大背景来找出投资增长点，

过商业。最近刚刚出现的中国医药集团与

在创造利润的同时也为全民健康服务。

新乡市联合组建区域医疗服务平台，主要是靠信息化手段来实施。现在改革要求医

（根据作者在清科中国医疗健康产业投资大会上的演讲整理）

December 2013

COLUMN

Playing with the numbers Accounting manipulation has always been a problem in China – but is it also a trading opportunity? By Dr. Chen Xin

he accounting environment in China iis famously opaque at best. This has led to cases b of manipulation at listo eed Chinese companies which have sometimes w Dr. Chen Xin c cost investors dearly. But there is also another B way to consider accounting manipulation in China – look at it as a trading opportunity. Stock market trading in China takes place in a complex environment, much different to that in say London or New York. Existing laws are practically useless in protecting small investors. Regulators face conflict of interest when state-owned-enterprises (SOEs) are involved in manipulation – executives and controlling shareholders are rarely punished severely for violations. Market players tend to be short-term speculators, ignoring most signs of accounting manipulation. Compared with share prices in the equities markets of developed economies, share prices in China have a much higher synchronicity with the overall market, suggesting either a lack of valuable firm-specific information, less informed traders and investors, or both. In economic theory, such an environment creates pricing inefficiency and therefore the potential for abnormal returns. A 2010 study led by Yu Tong, a professor at the University

December 2013

of Rhode Island, demonstrates that investment strategies based on fundamental analysis do not perform well in China. This is because of the manipulation of accounting numbers and the noise introduced by a large number of speculators. To arbitrage the pricing errors in the Chinese equities market, investors need instead the ability to see controlling shareholders’ and executives’ incentives, and to predict the accounting manipulation that can take place. Companies listed in China manipulate their accounting in a variety of ways. These include recognizing revenue or expenses either too early or too late; artificially adjusting noncash expenses, such as provisions and depreciation; and manipulating asset purchase prices. Reporting false operating cash inflows or untrue investment cash outflows is also a manipulation tactic. These following cases illuminate the ways that manipulation can work, and the trading opportunities that may make themselves available.

Steel giants In October 2008, Anshan Steel Group, the second-largest steel maker in China, announced an issue of put options to holders of a previous set of put options for Panzhihua Steel (000629.SZ), with an exercise price of RMB10.55, and an exercise period in April 2011. A put option is a contract

between two parties to exchange an asset at a specified price and by a predetermined date. The goal was to prevent Anshan from having to buy the original options at a price of RMB9.59 per share at a time when Panzhihua’s stock was trading at about RMB8 apiece, a result which would have cost the company roughly US$2.9 billion. But to escape from an even greater financial loss, Anshan and its subsidiary were then faced with the need to somehow get the stock price above RMB10.55 sufficiently in advance of the April 2011 exercise period. The first step in their strategy was to take what’s commonly called a ‘big bath’ (pulling lots of expenses and losses into the current year, and deferrring revenue and income into the following year for full-year 2009). The second was to report a dramatic income rebound for full-year 2010, with the results to be made public in March 2011, in time to drive up the stock price before the exercise period. They acheievd the first step in April 2010, reporting a record RMB1.6 billion loss for 2009. To achieve the second step, they manipulated 2010 earnings in several ways. Most dramatically, they reported a 25% reduction in administration and other expenses, claiming more than RMB1 billion in savings. However, the manipulated earnings alone might not have been good

Investors should pay close attention to companies’ numbers to spot chances to trade.

enough to drive the stock price above the RMB10.55 exercise price. So at the end of 2010, Anshan announced a restructuring plan to swap its overseas iron mine assets with the steel manufacturing assets of Panzhihua, a classic related party transaction with consequent opportunities for manipulation. Anshan exaggerated the future profitability of the overseas iron mines, driving the share price of Panzhihua above RMB14 before the exercise period. By the end of 2011, the stock had dropped to about RMB5 and hasn’t regained its previous levels since. How to profit from such a situation? The trajectory of the stock was rather predictable from the time of the second put option, because the controlling shareholder and the executive committee had fortunes or political futures at risk if they didn’t deliver on their two-step strategy. Therefore, traders could have bought the stock in the six to 12 month period before the exercise, benefitting from the downturn following

the company’s engineered big bath. Or they could have sold or shorted shortly before the exercise period, by which time the company would have safely inflated the stock price.

The two heavies Another reason that companies occasionally engineer big baths in China is that the securities regulators put severe trading restrictions on firms that report two consecutive years of loss. Those that see three consecutive years of losses are delisted. Therefore, if a company can’t avoid taking a loss in a fiscal year, they may try to delay revenue recognition and pull expenses forward, or inflate or deflate outright, engineering a big bath. Doing this is aimed at improving their chances of being in the black in the following year; if a company is on the edge, they may do the opposite to stay in the black for the current year. An example can be seen in the case of two state-owned construction machinery makers. In April 2013,

China First Heavy Industries (601106. SH) and China Second Heavy Industries (601268.SH), both with similar declines in operating cash flow due to weak conditions in their sector, reported dramatically different results for full-year 2012. Why? First Heavy was ‘on the edge’, so the company used similar accounting manipulation to that discussed above to boost 2012 reported income: Exaggerating revenue and non-operating income, while finding ways to deflate reported costs. Second Heavy had no way to manipulate its way into the black, so the company did precisely the opposite: Engineer a big bath. Given the weak institutional environment in China, there is little that investors can do to prevent listed firms from accounting manipulation. Thus, it is very important for investors to understand the motives of managers or controlling shareholders. Investors should in particular pay attention to scheme of stock incentive plans, unlocking of restricted shares held by private controlling shareholders, potential special treatment of stocks and seasonal equity offerings etc. With such alerts in mind, investors can better understand financial statements of Chinese listed firms and make smart investment decisions.

Dr. Chen Xin is Associate Professor of Accounting at the Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU), and a lecturer for the Global Executive MBA in Shanghai, a collaboration between SJTU and the University of Southern California.

December 2013

专栏

如何走出低谷期寻找新平衡的调整过程难免是痛苦的文 | 张庭宾中华元智库创办人

这

张庭宾

一轮中国的探底和

计维护甚至强化既得利益。中国的医疗体

调整应该会比2008

制改革屡屡碰壁就很具有代表性。

年深，会比1997年深，无年

现行医疗体制的最大弊端有两个。第

障的关系中，本人认为，市场能做愿做的

法法再通过推诿逃避或寅吃卯

一，由于政府财政收入主要用于自身开支

让市场承担，市场不愿做的公立医院来

粮粮就可以轻松过关。接下来

和基建投资，致使对于医疗的公共投入严

做；政府不得干预民营医院的经营管理，

可可能会有三个疑问：第一，

重不足。第二，政府投入和市场资源都集

民营医院不得分享公共医疗蛋糕。这样既

中国探大底时期会有多痛

中到少数三甲医院，其公共服务性与市场

充分调动市场和医保两个资源，又使双方

苦苦？第二，为什么痛苦期是

边界混淆不清，医疗资源主要被官员和富

的边界非常清晰，既避免了官员对民营医

十十年，而不是一两年，三五

人们优先享用，社会公众的医疗资源严重

院寻租，又避免了民营医院窃取公共资

年年？第三中国通过怎样的改

匮乏，或不得不自掏腰包高价购买。

源。

革才能走出来？

医改提出多年，一直反反复复，屡

第二，在公共投入补供方（医院）还

先回答第一个问题，若发生危机，

屡无功而返，找到合理解决方案真那么难

是补需方（患者）的关系上，公立投入除

中国人未来3～5年的生活会痛苦到什么

吗？本人相信，上天每制造一把锁一定会

了基本工资和基本医疗条件属于补供方之

程度？本人借用一位知名企业家的话来回

配一把钥匙，关键在人有没有足够的耐心

后，其他投入应当直接补给需方，由医保

答—中国人的生活未来能够温饱就不错

和智慧找到这把锁的钥匙（解决方案），

人根据不同公立医院的医疗服务水平选择

了。

更重要的是这个人愿不愿意去开这把锁

就医，即公立医院医护人员的奖金和福利

旧平衡无以为继后，必须要寻找新的

（这把锁锁着本来可能就是他得利）。故

均要通过与别的公立医院竞争得来，这会

平衡。这个过程就是先经济金融危机，再

此，本人在2008年12月曾撰文提出了一套

倒逼公立医院奖勤罚懒，优胜劣汰，提高

经济结构调整，生活方式的调整，各种利

完整的医改解决方案，强调解决好七个辩

医疗服务水平。

益关系的调整，调整的过程就是改变习惯

证关系。

的过程，适应现实变化的过程，注定不会是舒服的，或者说难免是痛苦的。

重建新平衡建立物质新平衡的方法有：提高资源使用效率；更低的物质消耗水平；更合理均衡的财富分配。提高资源使用效率包括新能源（潜力最大，能够提供无限干净能源的是氢核聚变）、新材料；循环经济提高资源循环；提高效率，降低交易和流动环节的损耗，互联网扮演重要角色。因为提高资源使用效率仅是量变，如果仍不足够再平衡，只能降低中国人均的物质消耗水平，以达成低水平的可持续平衡，如果不主动，就会以危机的方式被动平衡。然而，一旦涉及更合理均衡的财富分配，难度立刻就上升很多，因为既得利益者一般不会主动让渡利益，而且会千方百

其中，最重要的是三个关系。第一，在市场配置资源的基础功能与公共医疗保

December 2013

理应加大对于医疗的公共投入

第三，公共投入来源问题，即中央、

地方、企业和个人财力匹配问题。公共投入不足问题才是医改屡屡进二退三的核心原因。企业和个人上缴了各种税收之后，公共投入的来源毫无疑问主要来自政府投入，世界各国均是如此。另外，中国是社会主义国家，土地和矿产资源属于全民所有，除对经营者合理的报偿外，其主要收益应当全民共享，划入社保体系最为合理。最难的显然是第三个关系。它的理顺与政府职能转换、政府财政支出方向密切相关。如果财政支出大部分用于投资和行政开支，那社保资金难免捉襟见肘。

再平衡绕不开政府如果中国政府成本降低到国际水平，则意味着中国政府要实现由现在的“全能

必须进行行政体制改革

管制投资型政府”向“有限责任服务型政府”的实质性变革，则中国社会负担将大

督更加困难。当今人口虽然更多，但是随

大下降，民间活力将大大提高，社会保障

着互联网和交通的高度发达，管理效率惊

来源将大大充实，足够保障下岗公务员的

人升级，管理半径都大大增加，完全可以

基本生活。这在中国再平衡中处于至关重

将中央、省、市、县、乡五级减为中央、

要的地位。

省、县、乡四级。

慧、威力和耐心…… 安心开锁的国际环境并不容易得到…… 此外，中国官员和民众也尚未做好倒逼改革的精神准备。土地财政虽不像原

然而，幅度如此大的行政体制改革

在通过减少层级，强化中央政府自

来那么增长，尚可勉强维系，地王尚能涌

谈何容易。要想行政体制改革成功，需要

上而下监管的同时，还应自下而上的扩大

现，钱虽难借还能借到。大多数百姓仍能

形成一种倒逼机制，出现了一场较大的的

基层民主，将现在的村级民主直选，上推

喝酒吃肉，有房有车尚可虚荣，仍然缺乏

经济和金融危机，楼市崩溃，土地财政破

到乡（镇）级，即对人大代表实现直接

改变现实中不合理规则的意愿。

产，政府与民争利难以调和，要捍卫政权

选举，人大代表直接选举（和罢免）乡

因此，倘若中国经济金融发生一次

必须行政体制改革，倒逼出背水一战的环

（镇）长，由乡（镇）人大给政府定职

危机，也并非全是坏事，它可以促使国人

境。同时，操作中必须巧妙分化改革阻

能、定编制和定开支。这不仅可以推动政

猛醒，进行再平衡的变革。不过，在政治

力，使官员们由捍卫共同利益变成利益的

府职能转化，大大降低乡镇政府成本，还

上树立变革权威，对外能够震慑觊觎，创

竞争者。

可以有效缓解基层官民矛盾。

造出变革时需要的稳定国际环境。这大概

本人建议如下行政体制改革方案：将省级行政单位扩大到50~60个；将市级行

这个过程其实也是一个人性再平衡的过程，是动态的，而不是动荡的。

政单位全部撤掉；强化县级行政单位；对乡镇行政单位实行民主化。

需要3~4年的时间。即便启动了改革，由于此再平衡改革的难度和深度都远远超过 30年来的任何一次，甚至在中国历史上也

开锁者最关键

是前所未有的挑战，如果能用5~6年的时

这个方案的好处是，将中国古代高

找到钥匙— 未来的变革方案还不

间基本梳理到位就已经难能可贵了。换言

效率的郡县制和落实社会主义民主有效结

是最难的，最关键的是，即便找到这把钥

之，10年之后，中国人才能品尝变革的

合起来。在秦汉时，中国行政体系主体实

匙，交给能开锁的人，他有没有打开这把

成果。

施的是中央、郡、县三级，效率很高，后

锁的力量和意志，能否拥有可以安心开锁

来随着人口增加，管理难度较大，演变到

的外部和平稳定环境。

这也算是我对中国能否走出低谷，中国痛苦为何会是10年的回答。（本文经授

明代的中央、省、府、县等四级，清朝的

即便找到了这把钥匙，要打开当今中

权摘自机械工业出版社华章公司《美元复

省、道、府（厅州）、县五级，机构日益

国的这把锁—可堪称为人类迄今为止最

兴十年？中国痛苦十年？》的结语，有删

臃肿，效率更加低下，中央对于地方的监

错综复杂的难题，还需要极大的勇气、智

节）

December 2013

Q&A

Profit from China Tips and tricks on how to invest in the world’s second-largest economy

hina’s economic development means that its markets and the companies doing business here are attracting greater attention from international investors than ever before. However, investing directly into the country is not straightforward; China imposes restrictions on foreign investments in its capital markets. It’s not possible to directly invest in A-shares, while B-shares that are denominated in US dollars may sometimes lack liquidity. Strict controls limit the movement of capital between borders. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t ways to profit. Philip Cheng, Adjunct Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Science and Technology in Hong Kong and a former senior investor, offers China Economic Review readers his tips on how to play the China story as well as how to think more clearly about investment decisions in general. Cheng worked at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan Chase for 21 years before becoming the Chief Investment Officer at the Taiwan branch of New York-based MetLife, the largest life insurance company in the US, where he a oversaw a portfolio with total assets under management of approximately US$2 billion. In July, Taming the Money Sharks, the English-language version of Cheng’s Hong Kong bestseller, a survival guide for retail investors, was published by Wiley.

December 2013

Through which channels can foreign investors get exposed to the China story? There are three ways to deal with your situation. Number one is for the new investors. I would encourage them to start with the shares listed in Hong Kong for the simple reasons that in Hong Kong for over 50 years, the H-shares have been more or less westernised in their approach in formatting the information, in documenting the companies. You can get exchange information via many sources. The second one is through American Depository Receipts. They have a benefit for most international investors because the format is so well known in so many websites from Yahoo! Finance to Fidelity to MSN. Once you get an idea, the potential investor can com-

pare so-called “Chinese stocks” with the ones that they are already used to, the international stocks, so they can make a better judgement as to which one is a better buy. Number three: Non-Chinese companies. They are foreign companies but they are benefitting from China trade. For Australia, for example, it would be the major mining companies. For the US, it would be some of the major companies already exporting with a lion share of their business like certain fertilizer companies. With European companies, some of the pharmaceuticals would be good candidates. So here are the three approaches that I would recommend before you actually plant down your money directly into Shanghai shares or Shenzhen shares.

What advice do you have to offer based on the theories in your book to investors considering investing in China related stocks? I would say first of all, the financial market structure in China is very different. Although the terminology on the surface may seem to be the same with America or with Europe, once you go into the market they really mean different things. You should know that in China, companies adopt this Western terminology based on their degree of sophistication across many regions in this vast country. Don’t just go with any company. Industry focus is critical. If you’re in

the consumer industry, stay with it. Say you’re in the automobile industry; you can buy into BMW or Fiat or other reputable global automobile manufacturers. Same thing in China: You have China automobile companies and the industry is already big enough for you to concentrate on without going into another sector. According to one account, there are 68 industries. That means even if you don’t sleep, you will never be good in so many industries, especially in China. The difference in terminology makes the industry even more complicated. So the gross margin, for example, is not what you think the gross margin is, as accounting treatment may be slightly different. So with all supposedly common terminology, you need to know the industry to compare what is what you think and what is not what you think.

China is a particularly opaque market at times. What advice do you have for investors trying to find information about the China stock market? There’s a lot of information on the China market recently and almost everybody wants to be able to produce something because there’s obviously huge demand for Chinese stocks. But one thing I would caution right away is try to understand where the author is coming from and the author’s background and what the personal interest of the author may be. For example, is the author representing a large international bank or a large Chinese bank? Are they presenting some information

that may be of special interest to some organisation? Or are they truly giving fairly good information in the sense that they’re neutral? The language ability is obviously a determinant as to whether you are reading Chinese articles or English articles. If you wish to start with the English articles, Hong Kong will be a good start.

Some overseas-listed Chinese companies have been accused of fraud in recent years, knocking investor confidence in them. What steps can investors take to understand such stocks better, to make better informed investment decisions? As in any stock investments, in China or elsewhere, one must understand the characteristics of the respective industry. The behaviour of financial indicators follow the industry structure, e.g. the gross margin of the high tech industry is generally higher than that of the grocery business due to the nature of operational parameters. This may be further magnified due to cultural and developmental factors in China. When a Chinese company says, “Ok, we have 25% growth in certain things,” do you know the nature of that industry? Because if the industry is very new, when you have US$10 going to US$20, that’s a 100% increase because it is so young. So, many of us are mesmerized by the percentage increase. But that’s because the base is so small, especially in China, where many bases are very small. When IBM was growing say, 15%, that’s a lot of

growth, but when a small IT company in China grows 25%, it maybe not that much. Take that into account in China.

Risk is obviously an important consideration for investors. Your book talks about four main types of risk – market, credit operational, legal and political. Do China related stocks have any unique risks? I think the risk is not that much different than other stocks. As to the nature of the risk, let’s take credit risk for example. The credit risk is relative in the US with a major credit agency’s AAA, AA ratings etc. But in China, because we are all basing risk rating of credit on financial information and financial information is based on audited statements and the auditing process may or may not be not be the same as in the US. It’s not good or bad but just maybe different, and one needs to be cognizant of this. And so, one must be aware of the different auditing process in China versus another country. I would encourage investors to be physically in China, even on vacation or holidays, to talk to as many people as possible. Especially to the so-called rank and file employees in the financial industry, the accounting industry and the auditing industry. Our judgement, by and large, comes from the three key financial statements from the company and if we do not ask enough questions, we may make the wrong decisions. So it’s the same thing with the other risks. Everything is comparative.

December 2013

移动智能时代基于移动互联网的新技术新产品层出不穷

P29 下一座金矿 P36 移动变革营销 P40 移动阅读制高点

下一座金矿探索可穿戴设备对于中国企业的机遇和挑战文 | 晗军

可

穿戴设备是可以直接穿在身上或整

功耗太大，基本上用一个小时就得充电，

合到用户衣服或配件上的便携式设

比手机还要耗电。这些缺陷促使钱江思

备，目前主要产品包括智能手腕带、智能

考，Google Glass还没有做到最好，怎样

手表和智能眼镜等。虽然还远未普及，但

才能做到最好？这是他决定做智能手表的

市场前景十分看好。从Google Glass到三

初衷。

星智能手表，再到苹果iwatch，全球商业

英特尔投资部中国区总监卜君全认

巨头纷纷涉足。美国信息咨询公司HIS发

为，Google Glass在技术上没有那么高难

布的一份科技白皮书显预计，到2016年全

度，却很有潜力，市场接受度应该很高。

球可穿戴设备将达到3900万~1.7亿件的年

投资机会在哪里？他觉得技术门槛大多是

出货量。

在软件及后端产品开发上，国内创业者要

智能眼镜Google Glass的问世引燃

找到能够做这类软件的公司不难，而在深

了人们对可穿戴设备的畅想，使之成为全

圳或浙江应该很容易找到能够做这类硬件

球炙手可热的年度话题，被视为智能手机

的企业。

后又一波移动互联网浪潮，更有人称2013

钱江认为，可穿戴设备的机会并不

年为“穿戴式装置元年”。可穿戴设备究

只存在于智能眼镜、智能手环手表、充电

竟具有怎样的神奇魔力？中国企业的发展

鞋、卫星导航这些概念性的设备，机会是

机会在哪里？创业者该如何进入？发展瓶

全方位的，不一定非要从头开始做这样的

颈又在哪里？

设备。电池和材料领域也有很大机会，可穿戴设备面临的问题是电池能否有突所

抓住机遇

破，如果没有突破将很困难。电池还可以

吸引土曼科技联合创始人钱江的可穿

做到可弯曲和超薄，能否将芯片的功耗降

戴设备首先是Google Glass，它的理念

下来也很关键，传感器也有很多发展机

是使用电脑设备将人的眼和手都解放了。

会，如血液传感器还做不到便携。这些是

现在经常看到一个场景就是两个人在咖啡

横向的机会。在可穿戴设备潮流来临时，

馆里坐着谈话，手机不时地振一下，然后

一些产品是会被整个行业所使用的，属于

眼睛盯着手机看，感觉很不礼貌。钱江说

基础性产品。此外，还有纵向的垂直领

道：“Google Glass通过语音控制解放

域的机会。如运动健康的一些应用，很多

你的手，它的输入基本是语音控制，通过

厂商与其自己做手环不如考虑与手表厂商

把光电子打到你的眼睛里，使你能看到屏

合作，还有医疗设备的应用和医疗健康数

幕，但不会影响与其他人的接触。所以让

据的采集等。不是所有参与者都去做智能

我感觉非常神奇。”

手表或手环，更大的机会可能存在于产业

但在使用过程中发现，现实总是比理想要严酷一些。Google Glass使用5

链参与方形成的生态圈。这是钱江看到的机会。

到10分钟边上就发热，让人受不了。第

英特尔在可穿戴设备领域将扮演什

二个问题是屏幕不错，不会挡着视线，但

么角色？英特尔以前在移动领域并不特别

是太小，眼睛不舒服。真正要看新闻内容

强势，事实上是后来者。有些手机和平板

时都用手机来看，这个设备虚拟现实的屏

电脑已经看到英特尔的产品，但毕竟是后

幕展现方式还不太理想。第三个问题是

来者。在可穿戴设备领域也在尝试开

December 2013

封面故事

CEO王小彬表示，目前产品还不是太完

品，英特尔不会正面对抗，因为这不是我

善，因为是测试版本，预定的1万台用户会

可穿戴设备为什么这么火？是因为

们的优势。”卜君全说道。

在3个月之内以旧换新升级。他的目标是开

Google Glass还是iwatch？还是其他什

发在手腕上能够解决各种用户不同需求的

么原因？可穿戴设备从广义来看早就出现

产品，也即智能腕上设备。

了，包括运动腕表，也算是小电脑，市场

可穿戴设备目前所处的阶段，有点像 2007年的安卓系统，都在质疑，只有圈内比较热。钱江认为，恰恰这个时期最值得

咕咚网于2010年成立，那时还没有

去尝试，等到一拥而上，如2011年4月以

可穿戴设备的概念，连软硬件整合的概念

后移动互联网在中国的投资高潮，资本方

也没有，咕咚网已经在做可穿戴设备了。

映趣科技在进入智能穿戴领域后，默

都愿意投了，实际上已经拼成了红海。风

早期是连接PC，随着移动互联网的兴起，

默无闻地做了一年多，今年才火起来。王

险与机遇是并存的，不愿意冒险就会失去

做成了手机配件。专注的领域比较垂直，

小彬表示，当初可能是误打误撞，进入这

机会。

围绕运动健康领域推出了一系列穿戴式产

个领域是不想一直做山寨产品。映趣科技

品，包括热门的咕咚手环、健康称，正在

当时有三家小公司，具备软硬件和设计能

国内先驱

上也已经有很多。为什么这个概念今年才火起来？

开发的还有可测量心率的自行车、跳舞毯

力，王小彬想要做与别人不一样的产品。

中国企业在可穿戴设备开发和产品

等。咕咚网CEO申波表示，目标就是提

第二个原因是很多企业都在考虑做手机，

发布上也已开始行动。百度可穿戴设备网

供快乐的健身健康服务。网站可下载一款

手机是不是一定是终结者，不会变了？苹

站已上线，推出了咕咚手环和inWatch两

免费手机软件咕咚运动，用户量已接近上

果或三星的屏幕是不是足够大了？“我想

款产品，还将发布三款可穿戴设备，百度

千万。网站在搜集用户的同时也开放API

每个人都希望更大的屏幕，最好是电视

云可以提供图像人脸识别、语音识别等

（应用编程接口）。

机，但总不能带着电视机跑，每个人只要

技术。据称，百度已建立了包括硬件、

快乐妈咪于今年1月成立。创始人陶

带上个人的预算处理中心，然后把数据放

软件、云服务在内的可穿戴式设备研发

建辉去年10月就想做可穿戴设备，觉得

在云端，走到哪里都有一台显示屏。考虑

团队。

一定要挑没有人做过的产品，就选择了母

到这样几个元素就进入了这个领域。”王

正式成立于去年8月的映趣科技是专

婴市场。第一款设备改造了胎影仪。目标

小彬说道。

注于智能腕上设备的公司，2011年底就在

是想充分利用智能手机、移动互联网、大

对于可穿戴设备突然走红，申波认

开发智能腕表，目前团队大概有50多人，

数据对母婴行业的电子消费设备进行变

为，从行业来说，穿戴式只是概念，应该

也获得过一次较大的天使投资。从今年8月

革。“希望通过这三个新技术改造传统设

放在更大背景下来看。各大巨头都在做软

至今已接受了1万台订单，正在陆续发货，

备，我相信一定能够在这个垂直领域创造

硬件结合，就像大脑一样，各种应用发展

目前已有60%交付到客户手上。映趣科技

出新的品牌。”他说道。

到极致后，相对来说机会就比较少，怎样

Google Glass在技术上没有那么高难度

引领潮流

发。“我们会有更多省电或低功耗的产

December 2013

的角度出发，童子平认为这个领域已具备了一定的时机。王啸因为对可穿戴和软硬结合感兴趣，投过一两家这方面的公司。他觉得可穿戴设备领域不是特别好做，因为既有硬件又有软件，需要大量的资金支持，还需要市场宣传，市场难度比较大，只有相对垂直且具有云端能力的公司才可能在竞争中胜出。可穿戴设备目前还存在着不小的瓶颈。可穿戴设备是市场导向的产品，需要营销引导，需要告诉用户产品很好。不是功能导向，因为没有参照物，消费者可能可穿戴设备的兴起与智能手机密不可分

从来没有想过为什么要戴智能手环，很多人新鲜感尝完后，就将产品送人了。荷多

让互联网影响到实体世界？穿戴式设备就

化，推动了这一硬件设备的发展，价格只

天使创始人王利杰认为，可穿戴设备需要

是软硬件结合的分支。热潮是从Google

有1美元左右，这也推动了传感器和可穿

的是炫耀，功能则是次要的。当一千万人

Glass开始，由巨头的推动而引发潮流，

戴设备的发展。而智能手机大规模的出货

都戴着产品在街上走，而10%的人在意它

这是趋势。

导致很多器件成本大幅度降低。第三是资

的功能，其他人不在意它的功能时，就是

咕咚网开发可穿戴设备则与申波的

本的推动，互联网领域的技术创新一定有

很成功的营销。因此，营销人才很关键，

背景有关。之前他做过硬件开发，研究生

VC在推动。最后是因为网络的传播，一家

科技界缺少这样的人才，这是第一大挑

毕业后主要做软件和网络开发。因为两方

小公司的产品可以通过微博、微信进行传

战。创业者要有办法将跨界人才整合到身

面都懂，在寻找商业模式时，就没有单纯

播，让大多数用户快速接触到可穿戴设备

边，共同完成可穿戴设备的故事。他觉得

做硬件或软件，只是想给用户提供什么服

的前沿。王啸表示，这些因素直接导致了

现在做可穿戴设备，知识欠缺很关键，不

务，当服务需要硬件时就做硬件。公司一

可穿戴设备目前在国内比较火，但能不能

知道有哪些新材料、新工艺能够帮助产品

开始就专注于运动健康领域，并采用软硬

持续火下去，还要等待真正具有实用价值

提高，只知道有市场机会，但是根本不知

结合的模式来实现。最初也是简单产品，

的产品出现。

道市场上有多少好产品。投资人要做的就

通过电脑上传数据，2010年已经开发出产品，而且销售到了韩国。移动互联网兴起

是弥补这些缺陷，而不只是投钱。王利杰

瓶颈问题

对未来还是很看好，至少机会还在。他相

后申波分析了用户的反馈，决定将硬件转

学计算机出身的童子平关注这个领域

换成手机配件，这样用户的体验会更好，

已经很多年。他曾想过给盲人做可穿戴设

而且对用户数据的分析、反馈也会更及

备，帮助盲人认路。大学时代还设想过给

陶建辉认为自己公司一定会解决硬件

时。这样就将重心转移到了手机通讯，无

宠物、小孩做防丢失的设备，当时因为蓝

问题，因为学费已经交够了；但在品牌营

形中契合了穿戴式设备的概念。

信中国一定会在可穿戴设备领域诞生另外的“小米”。

牙、传感器都没有配套，要么做不出来，

销上，目前是大问题。申波也认为，除了

九合创投创始人王啸认为，主要还

要么穿戴的感觉非常差，不像现在穿戴效

产品和服务之外，营销推广很重要，某种

是与智能手机的兴起有关，因为可穿戴设

果这样好。苹果智能手机的兴起带动硬件

意义上也是国内技术团队的短板。

备与苹果公司密切相关。手机以前只能打

产业链大幅度的成熟和快速发展，才有了

如果想在可穿戴设备领域取得成功，

电话，不能进行软件操作，因为计算能力

近两三年软硬件的结合。他认为，可穿戴

就要通过软硬件的结合，通过物联网的连

差，操控比较差。为什么现在出现了可穿

设备是科技与时尚的结合，如果只是一种

接进入云端、大数据平台，这样才能真正

戴设备？因为智能手机的CPU足够强，大

潮流，只是潮流人士戴一下，并不会真正

形成核心竞争力。这是童子平的建议。清

部分可穿戴设备都是智能手机的配件。所

成为投资人关注的行业，也不会成为创业

科资本投资过类似的软硬件结合项目，董

以，智能手机计算能力是推动可穿戴设备

者愿意为之奉献的事业。但是他觉得可穿

事总经理王利朋认为创业公司必须想清

往前走的第一个关键点。第二个关键点，

戴设备是可以满足消费者深层次需求的，

楚，做可穿戴设备希望给公司沉淀下来最

运动传感器陀螺仪以前是卫星导航用的高

包括以前的那些设想、开车时使用蓝牙

值钱的是上千万用户量还是海量的数据？

尖端设备，而且很贵，但苹果将它批量

等。作为同创伟业董事总经理，从投资者

应该尽量避免创业过程中出现花拳绣腿。

December 2013

Telecoms in China It's zero hour for China Mobile and 4G services

hina’s 4G launch is already behind schedule. Analysts point to the first two weeks of January for licensing and a commercial launch of the service from China Mobile. It needs this to wor k out. The company, the world’s largest mobile operator by subscribers, once dominated the industry. It considered competition from China Unicom and China Telecom, the country’s two smaller mobile carriers, negligible. Much has changed since 2009 when the country launched 3G services. China Mobile still boasts well over 50% of Chinese mobile subscribers, yet its returns on its massive network have plummeted. The privileges it enjoyed from close relations with regulators have since turned it into the government’s policy mule; it’s been forced to adopt expensive and faulty homegrown technology that has hobbled its progress. In the meantime, the two smaller carriers have become formidable opponents, snatching 3G market share from the giant. The forthcoming launch of 4G is an opportunity to turn things around for China Mobile and potentially restore some of its former glory. That is, if it can get the new technology up and running on time.

What's the rush? The original launch date for 4G in China was nearly a month ago, according to Bertram Lai, telecoms analyst at CIMB. Plans are already behind schedule mainly because of the complex bargaining that must conclude before licenses for 4G are handed out. The talks aren’t simply between a mobile carrier and the regulator, the

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). That would be far too simple for the way telecoms work in China. Rather, all three companies must agree on several different terms amongst themselves and with the ministry. To add a Kafkaesque twist to the already tiring arrangement, the National Development and Reform Commission, the economic planning agency, gets to have its say as well. “There’s a lot of negotiation that’s occurring right now and as a result it’s probably going to take longer than everybody expects,” said Lai. For example, one of the bargaining chips on the table is how much extra a carrier earns when a call from another network is dialed into its own. Currently, all three pocket US$0.0098 for every minute of interconnection between the carriers. The arrangement sounds fair but when China Mobile has 60% of the country’s subscribers, more calls are naturally dialed into its network. This has always resulted in a net profit for the company. The ministry will likely change this rule. Although no official announcement has been made, a state news agency reporter said on his personal blog recently that he saw ministry documents indicating China Mobile’s tariff could be dropped to half the current rate without adjusting the rates for the two smaller carriers. Such a move could put the Goliath at a net revenue loss for interconnection fees while pulling China Unicom and China Telecom out of the red in this area. Perhaps more significant are the talks over what kind of licenses will be handed out. Earlier this year, both China

December 2013

COVER STORY

China Mobile has invested heavily to get a jump-start in 4G.

Unicom and China Telecom said they preferred the more internationally developed standard, FDD, to China’s own system, TD. The ministry has shown that it may not heed those wishes. TD licenses may be issued first followed by those for the global standard. This sounds like bad news for the two smaller carriers. However, heated debate over the type of licenses issued might be just what Unicom and Telecom want. The two smaller companies have robust 3G networks that have performed well since they launched in early 2009. They would like to keep that revenue flowing for as long as possible. “They know what they want and they’re not in a hurry otherwise, so they’re willing to keep the negotiation going,” said Mark Natkin, founder and managing director of Beijing-based Marbridge Consulting, which focuses on telecoms and IT. “But China Mobile is very itchy to move forward.”

One final chance Indeed, China Mobile, with more than 750 million subscribers, needs a license

December 2013

to deploy 4G as soon as possible. The company’s 3G network has, by most accounts, performed terribly. The average user contributes much too little to revenues on a network with a shrinking market share. Several other factors are chipping away at profitability as well. Smartphone apps such as Tencent’s WeChat are killing traditional revenues from text messaging. As the company shovels cash into its 4G network, its profit dropped by 8.8% in the third quarter of the year, the biggest decrease since 1999. Compare that with China Unicom, which notched a whopping 51% jump in profits in the third quarter, mainly on growth in 3G. China Telecom posted 20% year-on-year profit increase. The numbers fly in the face of China Mobile. A quick and smooth 4G launch is the company’s only opportunity in the foreseeable future to begin cashing in on high-end services. And that’s not out of reach. Technologically speaking, China Mobile’s 4G network is far stronger than its attempt at 3G. China Mobile was expected to offer

3G services starting as early as 2006. Yet, due to severe problems with its homegrown network, called TD-SCDMA, that launch was delayed time and again until 2009 in what was considered by many a disgrace to the company and the ministry that oversaw it. But the past, experts say, will not be repeated this time around. “The technology is much readier,” Natkin said. “Frankly, it’s a much more global technology.” China holds about 30% of the patents for the 4G standard. The rest are held by major international firms such as US-based Qualcomm that helped engineer it. Therefore, even though TD has been tested and used far less than FDD, its global standard should make the eventual 4G launch much smoother than that of the 3G system. Trials for the network have shown positive results as well. China Mobile was originally expected to have 200,000 base stations, or transmitters for the TD system, in place by the end of 2014. On October 13, the company said it would expand the trials to 326 cities, which indicates “that 4G licenses are not soon to arrive” according to independent Chinese weekly newspaper The Economic Observer. Analysts that spoke to China Economic Review had a different take. Pushing trials into more cities shows that TD is ready for deployment. Moving from wide-ranging commercial trials into real commercial operations is a simple transition. “The trial expansion means they are seeing the technology itself is more mature,” said Nicole Peng, a telecoms analyst at Canalys in Shanghai.. “They’re confident that it will be able to scale up when licenses are issued.”

Reform models China's making a list, checking it twice

his year, it’s not just Santa Claus who’s making a list. China’s Communist Party is taking one down too. Theirs is a “negative list” that contains a number of businesses and industries that are off limits to foreign companies – at least for the time being. Negative lists are policymakers’ wish lists for reform. They could even become the norm for rolling out change in the country in the coming years. When a negative list was first published in late September, detailing what foreign companies would not be able to do in the Shanghai free trade zone, disappointment was widespread. International firms complained the list was too long, too vague and many points still needed to be clarified. Since then, the Communist Party and some of the country’s regulatory bodies have hinted at issuing more lists. They’ve even broached the term “negative list model” as a method of pushing through reform. On November 15, at the conclusion of the Third Plenum, an official document stated that a “negative list management model” would be established for foreign companies looking to enter the Chinese market. That list has yet to materialize. Lifting the controls on China’s capital account may follow a similar list. In a guidebook published last week by the People’s Bank of China, chairman Zhou Xiaochuan said that a negative

list for foreign investment in mainland equities should be drawn up. Wang Yang, a reform-leaning vice premier, even came out last week and said the negative-list model could be adopted nationally as a way of gaining experience in reform. So far, only the list for the Shanghai free trade zone has been made public. The technocrats that devised it came up with 190 items that are controlled within the zone. The bulk, in areas such as “erotic industries,” “investment in news agencies,” “internet data services,” and even the “processing of green tea with Chinese traditional handicraft,” were listed as “prohibited” for foreign firms, according to an unofficial translation. Other interests, like the “processing of rice and flour,” “the construction of luxury hotels” and “legal consultation” were dubbed “restricted” without any further explanation. The binds on some industries were slightly clearer: Accounting firms would be allowed as “partnership only.” Information services “other than app stores” could take foreign participation of up to 50%. Distribution of audio and video materials excluding movies is restricted to “corporate joint ventures only.” The mayor of Shanghai, Yang Xiong, defended the list in October, saying that it would be shortened in the future. The theory behind it is that items will be scratched off as time goes on.

Han Zheng, the party secretary of Shanghai, shed a little light on the subject in an interview with independent Caixin magazine in mid-November. According to him, any financial or commercial business not marked on the negative list is fair game and doesn’t need government approval, but the authorities must be informed. Companies can expect the government to slowly “trim” items on the list, he said, although there was no timeframe for this. For the free trade zone, or any other negative list that surfaces, one question is: How long trimming will actually take? How much time must pass before companies can invest in something like an erotic business on the mainland, or is that permanently prohibited? And what of foreign-opened app stores: Are those banned too? Companies signing up to the zone, hoping to access a currently blocked off part of the market, could be frustrated with how long it takes to unlock new sectors. Another caveat for the list is that any business that compromises China’s national or social security, or the public interest, is prohibited. This sounds reasonable, yet Beijing has used loosely defined threats to “national security” and divulging of “state secrets” as a way to sideline business disputes in the past. Without clarity on the state secrets law, as well as overall bolstered rule of law in the country, questions over China’s “public interest” could overrule anything printed out on a list.

December 2013

封面故事

移动变革营销移动互联网在改变消费者的同时也对营销提出了挑战文 | 晗军

使用手机进行在线支付

移

动互联技术导致消费人群的生活

体平台更紧密地结合，会形成新的发展趋

形态以及购物形态、信息沟通形

势。营销传播的组合，未来很可能是挤进

移动端上网不如PC速度快，Pad端

态发生了颠覆性的变革。移动互联网的发

消费者生活的各个节点，很可能会导致营

很难接受广告或广告形式出现。陈岩表

展速度已超过互联网，手机上网人群的增

销格局发生演变。

示，在这种情况下，移动端可能有很多机

移动改变消费

速远高于PC端上网的增速。目前已有超

电众数码市场首席市场官尹敬业表

会、流量和人群，但有没有办法将广告植

过80%的中国网民通过移动终端上网，总

示，移动上网的网民几乎100%与其他媒

入，如何去赢得这场盛宴？如果单纯将广

数逼近5亿人。移动互联网在改变影中国

体或其他上网渠道的重叠度保持一致。也

告推送给消费者，究竟消费者能接受多

网民消费习惯的同时也在变革着营销的方

就是说，移动上网的网民不只是从移动渠

少？流量费用非常贵，网速非常慢，在移

式。移动互联对消费者究竟产生了怎样的

道上网，而是选择在不同时间、地点、环

动终端便利生活的同时应如何解决费用的

影响？手机可以上网后，碎片时间真正到

境使用不同的移动设备来上网。过去在做

问题？如何解决速度的问题？在消费者必

来，消费者行为的转变与过去想象的有什

营销时会谈IMC整合，也即360度的空间

经的场所，如写字楼安装免费的Wifi，免

么不同？在移动营销时代，应该如何观察

整合，传统营销中时间只是必须考虑的营

流量费、极速下载是不是可以解决无线带

消费者的脉动和市场的变化，充分地利用

销因素之一，还要考虑各种与消费者的接

来的问题？

这些变化来推动移动营销的发展？

触点。尹敬业认为，要从360度空间的思

“其实我们生活已经很忙，你还有多

分众传媒首席战略官陈岩表示，移动

维转化成365天，要思考365天的时间周期

少多余的精力愿意接受更多的广告，让广

互联网的发展带来了消费终端的移动化，

与消费者的需求如何结合。通过各种新技

告来打扰你的生活呢？”她说道。如何将

消费产品变得越来越破碎。移动互联网让

术，以移动设备来满足消费者需求，进而

资讯、内容提供给消费者，怎样将品牌信

消费者有更好的购物体验，虚拟平台和实

达成营销目的。

息巧妙的结合在服务中间使之成为受人欢

December 2013

迎且容易接受的讯息，这是需要思考的。 2012Q1-2013Q3移动互联网市场结构

当人们经历了时间、空间的碎片化以后，如何在碎片时间中去实现自己的购买？在“零碎化”的生活中，什么是最稀

无线广告 100%

移动购物

移动应用与服务

4.14%

4.11%

4.50%

39.36%

40.65%

41.60%

43.75%

28.79%

28.54%

27.60%

28.40%

流量费 5.24%

缺的？可能最缺的不一定是金钱，消费者的关注度、注意力可能是最稀缺的。如何

80%

在碎片时间中去吸引注意力，将信息传递给消费者？所谓“热环境”就是社交关系

52.14%

60%

为背景的关系。比如“双11”天猫派发红包，启用社交化方式，让好友拿到红包后

40%

可以分享给所有相关人群，分享者越多，红利也就越大。天猫与新浪微博用户体系打通，得到更多的新浪用户，通过数据积累的大数据营销也会越来越精准。如何营造这种激发购物行为的“热环境”？

28.89% 20% 27.81%

26.69%

23.87%

23.35%

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

13.72%

0% 2013Q3

移动营销可以“举重若轻”。在互联网上通过选择、比较、比价，看产品信息、看产品细节装入购物车再支付，是

来源：易观国际 · 易观智库 · eBI中国互联网商情

非常复杂的购物过程，所以陈岩称之为 “重”。而什么是“轻”？微博、微信关

从芒果的背景来看，曾经也是移动应

值，但更擅长从PC中发现用户的需求，

注了喜欢的品牌，关注了相关的产品，在

用的开发者，经历过所有移动应用开发者

从原有价值中创造出更新更独特的价值。

推送广告时，就轻而易举地产生了购买。

都有的创意、制作和上线推广的过程。芒

美丽说创始人暨CEO徐易容表示，4年前

如何简化流程、吸引消费者购买的全过

果移动广告CEO刘江表示，当年作为移动

从PC端开始，2011年决定将战略方向转

程？在写字楼、公寓，在消费者必经的节

开发者并不是很成功，但获得了很多经验

到无线。对于无线用户仔细观察后发现，

点中，不再简单地将广告推送给消费者。

和教训。芒果移动广告优化平台的工作很

用户不是回家后坐在电脑桌前，而是躺在

当消费者用手机扫一扫，发现这些产品是

独特，不是与行业中每个人都合作，而是

床上或窝在沙发里，用户的姿势变了。手

感兴趣的，会立刻通过“微支付”产生购

只做一件事，就是帮助移动开发者获得更

机是握在手心里，有照相机、录音机、喇

买。这样就从产品信息直接转化为购买行

高的收益。

叭，是随时在一起的非常个性化的东西。

为。还要“落虚为实”，吸引人们从虚拟

美图秀秀移动端的数据超过2个亿，

这些特点使用户的状态非常贴心、非常能

落到实处。陈岩认为，未来的趋势是如何

每天活跃用户1000多万。当初是怎么会

够参与。“用户在声光电下面的参与度非

将虚拟平台的营销，落实为现实世界的具

看到这样的需求开创出今天的局面？美图

常强。比如用户拿走了最新的试用品，回

体行动。不是简单的网上体验，而是需要

秀秀创始人暨CEO吴欣鸿表示，当时是被

来要分享体验，擦在脸上用照相机一拍就

在社区、写字楼等地点，让消费者进行近

逼着进入移动端，美图秀秀最早做PC端

可以上传。那种体验是以前无法完成的，

距离的体验。

游戏，2001年初才发布移动版，手机版发

太方便了，而且想去参与，这个感觉是不

布后出现爆发式增长。他表示并不是产品

一样的。” 徐易容说道。

升级用户体验

做得有多好，而是移动互联网的红利期到

吴欣鸿表示，美图秀秀更加关注的不

重新观察消费者的改变，跟着消费者

了。PC版可以用半年根据用户的理解来

是趋势本身，而是如何借助软硬结合，给

共筑品牌的理念，用一切手段不断营造积

做，但是现在不一样，用户每个月都在变

用户提供更优异的用户体验。软硬结合不

极的品牌体验，完美的整合才是未来生生

化，用户活跃度比PC版高很多。以前用户

是现在才有的，只是现在借着智能操作系

不息力量的源泉。尹敬业表示，电众数码

使用非常少，现在是非常疯狂地使用。美

统平台可以做得更好一些。未来智能设备

在移动营销产业投注了大量的人力以及心

图秀秀旗下有个美颜相机，平均每个用户

更多会围绕着智能手机，智能手机会成为

力，从满足用户需求、品牌信息的沟通、

要拍30多张照片。

一个枢纽，所以目前正在做一些智能设备

搜索的需求、线上线下O2O的联动，都做好了准备。

美丽说是专注女性时尚的社交购物应用。美丽说从用户体验中创造了自我价

的探索。通过移动平台能否获取到更精准

December 2013

封面故事

移动互联网使时间碎片化

的消费者数据？刘江表示，手机平台

台。UC优视CEO俞永福相信，移动互联

网的用户需求最早是在资讯方向，在资讯

确实能够获得较多的数据，前提是个人隐

网改变了UC，同时也改变了每个人的生

方向上使用比较成熟后，现在更多的需求

私能够得到保护。对于手机用户的辨识可

活。时尚和科技使生活更美好。他表示，

是在娱乐方向。亚洲人群将互联网视为最

以更加准确，并且确实能够获得地理位置

站在全球视野来看，UC优视是全球使用量

经济的娱乐平台，移动互联网更是如此，

信息、手机型号、正在用什么样的APP，

最大的第三方浏览器，也是中国互联网公

因为更加大众化。全球人口是70亿，想让

还包括点过什么样的广告。这样的信息其

司中国际化程度最高的一家，去年12月海

一半的人接触互联网，通过PC是很难完成

实并不是用户的个人信息，却能够帮助广

外用户突破了一个亿。

的任务，但手机已经有50亿用户。所以想

告主更加好地订制投放的广告。移动平台

过去9年里，俞永福深刻感受到了移

是否有和PC打通的可能？刘江认为确实

动互联网对每个人生活的改变。移动互联

让全球一半的人触网，只有移动互联网才能实现。

有这种可能性，而且业界中很多公司一直在努力做这样的尝试，包括一些大的社交

2012Q1-2013Q3中国手机购物市场交易规模

媒体。刘江认为，不管是数据还是打通，关键问题在于受众，想要去辨识受众的特征，目的也是为下一步更好地购买移动广告做准备，这才是真正的意义所在。

400

40%

350 300

展望移动未来移动终端一定会在未来的传播领域起着决定性的作用，但逻辑或原则是什么？

200 150

着人们早晨起床到出门工作、上班，到娱

100

刻伴随着人们。这就造成质的变化，所有原来的营销接触点发生了质的变化。可以说成“媒体的接触时间变长了”，但说的最多的是“媒体已经变成碎片化了”。 UC优视在过去9年专注在移动互联网，目前是中国第二大移动互联网平

December 2013

29.1%

26.9%

250

华扬联众CEO苏同认为，移动终端是随乐、到晚上回到家，到入睡前的一刻，时

25.7%

17.0% 14.6%

105.0

132.0

167.5

196.0

253.0

290.0

17.7%

20%

341.2 0%

0 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 市场规模（亿元）来源：易观国际 · 易观智库 · eBI中国互联网商情

环比增长率

移动互联网时代数据的背后是消费者的选择

移动互联网对未来信息产业、娱乐产

是什么？需要交互的是什么？很多人以为

好再付费的产品。他相信移动互联网最后

业将构生巨大冲击。过去3年俞永福看到生

APP就是移动互联网的一切，苏同却认

的解决方案，一定是对用户更开放、成本

活服务领域电子商务的冲击特别明显，移

为，APP不是移动互联网的全部，更不是

更低。

动互联网从信息、娱乐到生活，已经对用

移动互联网的未来。

时间和空间的限制，可以在睡觉以外的16

互联网精神是什么？苏同认为其实很简单，就是“开放”。只有开放才会走的

户形成了全方位影响。最重要的是打破了

打造移动生态

更长远，无论是技术还是资源一定遵循这

个小时随时上网，改变了人们晚上睡觉前

在互联网行业工作了10多年的俞永

个规律。而移动互联网来了，“产业链”

和早晨起床的习惯。他认为这就是真正地

福经历了几次技术变迁，他觉得今天又在

远远不够，未来想象空间最大的是“生态

改变生活。

经历一次重要的技术变迁。互联网能够发

圈”，生态系统决定了移动互联网能走多

苏同表示，移动互联网与媒体和营

展到今天，就是因为互联互通导致内容更

远。每个人都是内容的产生者，也都是内

销的关系可用几个关键字来表达，就是时

丰富，用户获取的成本更低。而移动互联

容的优化者和传播者。如何在众多的信息

间、地点和情境。互联网时代依然在做全

网APP其实让用户和服务商遭遇了巨大

源中跳出来？如何能让别人认识你？遵

流量，依然按天、按内容类别去做。手机

的困惑。对于用户而言，获取一个不知好

循“开放”原则会发现自由度足够了，每

其实是虚拟的人，从早上起来的那一刻，

坏的应用就会提示“要装一个客户端”，

个人都有可能成为生态链的一部分。

每一个行程都与时间、地点相关，而所处

用户不知道这个客户端是要还是不要。中

在移动互联网时代，苏同认为消费者

的环境也不一样。苏同认为，移动互联网

国iPhone手机流量的70%用在了APP的

的参与度达到了最高层面，成为所有产品

的逻辑变了，无论是媒体还是营销或是广

更新和下载，很难想象中国iPhone手机

或决策的绝对重要因素，而在原来的环境

告主，如果不考虑具体的时间、地点、环

70%数据消耗是在应用的升级。使用安

里并不这么认为，会先去做调研，然后根

境、情境，所制定的战略、策略就是自欺

卓手机都有“升级强迫症”，下载的某个

据调研得来的数据再去做产品。这样的流

欺人。

应用不一定天天用，要用的时候就跳出来

程其实是滞后的。

媒体人和营销人都在提“我们进入

“对不起，我们发布了新版本，您需要新

移动互联网时代的来临，让消费者

了移动互联网，我们做了APP、做了客户

升级”，这对用户而言并不是简单便捷的

可以更便捷、更自主地做出决策。苏同表

端，我们如何如何”，这就真代表移动互

获取方式。对于服务商也一样。有时候自

示，移动互联网时代数据的背后其实是消

联网么？这就是移动互联网的未来么？苏

己不能够决定自己的产品在哪天上线，这

费者的选择，一个人的选择不重要，十个

同觉得要打个问号。他并不认为传统媒体

对商业大环境造成了冲击。

人的选择可能也不重要，上百万、上千万

做APP就是移动新媒体，在他看来只不过

俞永福相信互联网能够发展是基于

人的选择就是潮流，就是商家、广告主想

是电子化了。移动互联网需要考虑受众什

以下几点：第一是互联互通；第二是免费

要掌握的趋势。而真正的数据是能判断消

么时间看？在什么地方看？看什么？环境

增值，一开始就要收费的产品，打不过做

费、影响决策的。

December 2013

REPORT

In the red The ﬁrst part in our series on local government debt asks: Where did it all come from?

here is the home of the cleverest businesspeople in China? This is a raging debate. Southerners say Chaozhou in Fujian province. Coastal Wenzhou folk certainly have a claim given their entrepreneurial rigor. Shanxi province in the north demand a shot at the title. While they argue among themselves, a simple answer is readily available: Regional government officials, north or south. These cadres in provinces and cities across the country have built monumental projects and accumulated extensive asset portfolios, all paid for by creative off balance sheet borrowing that dodged strict central government laws preventing them from getting loans from banks. Over the past nearly 20 years, local officials have set up companies that find the cash for them. These corporations – legally detached from yet headed by officials – take loans, develop property and build bridges and stadiums. Their legacy is visible in almost every part of China. They’ve racked up a hefty bill in the process. Many projects lose money; it’s probable that much of what was borrowed will never be paid back. Worst of all, the regulations that stop the localities from formal borrowing have pushed them into a grey market for funding. The debt isn’t accounted for in the local budgets because the governments haven’t borrowed the money, their companies have. “I think the issue is, that when you

December 2013

impose severe restrictions on local governments, they typically find a way around those restrictions,” said Debra Roane, vice president at Moody’s Investors Services. Now Beijing is trying to figure out just how much was borrowed in this manner. In August, the State Council, the government’s decision-making body, dispatched an accounting team to tally up this hidden debt. Although the results aren’t due until later this year, early estimates from analysts put the outstanding balance at up to US$3.9 trillion, or 47% of China’s 2012 GDP. A similar audit was carried out in 2010. Since then, it is possible the debt has more than doubled, pointing to the increasingly small return the government gets on investment-fueled growth and, therefore, a need to spend more. Unfortunately, the decreased

returns will also make much of the debt unserviceable. A note from London-based Capital Economics pointed out that the returns on many recent infrastructure are likely to be low. The debt is likely a main topic for discussion at the Third Plenum, the high-level political meet in Beijing taking place November 9-12. The “383 plan,” a reform blueprint that was issued by an influential State Council think tank in advance of the event, noted possible changes that could be made to the regulations that have forced regional authorities so far into the red.

Less isn't more Local officials have had little choice but to drive themselves in to such heaping debt. In 1994, under austerity measures taken by then-Premier Zhu Rongji,

Massive projects such as stadiums and roads have driven many local governments into the red.

REPORT

the central government put its hands on a major portion of local government tax revenues while at the same time requiring the localities to shoulder huge costs for social programs such as pensions and health care. A demand was also made for local officials to drive the country’s economic growth. For more than a decade regional governments have been charged with building many of the massive public works projects that have buoyed China’s breakneck development. While headline central government GDP expansion targets have settled at around 10% for many of the past 20 years, local governments have been pushed to shoot for higher growth, often topping 15%. Faced with such burdens, and effectively kept out of the formal borrowing sector, cadres were left scratching their heads over how to find the money to build the country. The solution has been entities known as local government financing vehicles. At its simplest, this is a stateowned firm set up by a government to borrow money from banks and bring in the cash needed for public spending. A basic model involves a shell company that uses government-entrusted land titles as a guarantee against loans from a state bank. Those funds then primarily go to other state-owned firms that build roads, bridges and any other infrastructure.

Finding the bodies Unsurprisingly, the borrowing loophole isn’t as straight forward as that. The questions facing these financing platforms today concern the true holders of trillions of yuan in debt. Legally speaking, local governments can’t be

held responsible because they are not allowed to borrow from banks. Yet the boards of the companies are populated by local officials, often powerful people with influence over state lenders. Executives at local financial institutions have been put in quite a bind. What convolutes the problem further is how this method of indirect borrowing is tied into other prominent risks to China’s financial stability, namely shadow banking and wealth management products. Grey market lending from unofficial creditors has surged since the 2008 global financial crisis. Companies in search of capital have racked up US$4.56 trillion in debt, according to Moody’s estimates of the broader the shadow banking sector. Many of those businesses were state owned. About half of the debt issued indirectly to local governments since 2010 may have been borrowed though shadow banks, as financial intermediaries often operating outside of regulatory oversight are known, according to Wang Qinwei, China economist at Capital Economics. “But it can only explain a small part of the financing through shadow banking in the whole country,” he said over the phone. “How much and what’s the structure? What kind of borrower? None of that is clear right now and it’s all part of the risk.” Standard and Poor’s estimates that up to 80% of local government debt is held by Chinese investment firms, much of which could be in risky wealth management products. Last year, the central government fingered investment and trust companies for the opaque nature of the investment products they offered. Funds were

loaded into speculative property buyups and coal mines. Huaxia Bank’s notable default on its wealth management products brought some visibility to the issue last December. Nationally, the products were valued at US$1.2 trillion at the end of 2012.

Lightening the load The intertwining of local debt between wealth management products and the shadow banking sector – the two of which are also thought to be tightly entangled – has made assessing the true risks increasingly difficult. Perhaps the risk became clearer to top policymakers this weekend. The preliminary findings of the national audit were expected to be presented at the Third Plenum, which ran November 9-12. Many leaders also likely looked for long-term solutions in the 383 plan. The proposals in the plan are wide ranging and have the potential to bring about major changes in the way local governments operate. The government could extend a local bond pilot that would help render backdoor lending obsolete. It may also let local officials levy property taxes as another way of generating transparent, on-the-book revenues to fund projects. The 383 plan has even suggested lightening regional governments’ social responsibilities, a move that would lessen their expenditures. Yet the plan’s bold ideas are matched by the difficulty and the length of time required to enact them – should part or all be approved. Over the next three articles in this series China Economic Review explores how the central government plans to pull regional authorities out of the red.

December 2013

REPORT

Bail bonds Part two of our In the Red series looks at the development of local government bonds

hinese tourist have flocked to Huaxi village in Jiangsu province for a glimpse of the skyscraper local officials have erected. The province itself was sitting on US$126 billion in debt in July. When the world was digesting news of Detroit’s bankruptcy in July, the biggest ever by a municipality in the US, attention in China turned to the highly indebted government of Jiangsu province. Provincial, city and county authorities were thought to be sitting on some US$126 billion in debt while the region’s shipbuilding industry, a major generator of revenues, foundered due to overcapacity. The province in east China was labeled a “ticking time bomb” and potentially the venue for the country’s first local bankruptcy. Stories of Huaxi village in central Jiangsu, where the local party chief had erected a skyscraper and an enormous temple complex on farmland, seemed to exemplify the rampant spending officials had engaged in for more than a decade. A month later, Jiangsu officials publicly said the debt was manageable, even appropriate for the size of the local economy, quickly easing fears of a provincial default. Much of Detroit’s US$18 billion in debt is held in municipal bonds. On October 1, when the city defaulted on US$9.37 million in payments it owed to the bondholders, there were few questions over the ownership or

December 2013

amount of the debt. The bondholders are taking Detroit to court. China, however, is a murkier place. In Jiangsu province, opaque government financing platforms borrowed much of the cash. They took loans from shadow banks and parked funds into risky wealth management products. Unlike Detroit, assessing the risk associated with Jiangsu’s debt will be much more difficult, as will any litigation that follows.

Bail bonds The central government may seek to clear up this financial disarray by developing bond markets. A communiqué issued at the close of this year’s biggest policy meet, the Third Plenum, pointed ever so vaguely at reforming local government finances. The think tank that developed a reform blueprint for the plenary session, known as the “383 plan,” put the solution rather wryly: “Open the front door, block the back door.” That is, let local governments start issuing debt directly by developing a local bond market. If that part of the plan is adopted and the central government committed to the development of a local bond market, it could substantially reduce the need for covert borrowing. “You can use the experiences of many foreign countries for reference, and local governments may issue debts by themselves for direct financing,” said Zhang Yingjie, a lead researcher at

China Chengxin International Credit Rating. Doing that would necessitate an amendment to the Budget Law. “If there is any big reform, the first step will be amending this law, and then there may be some improvement,” Zhang said. “If [bond] pilot projects are expanded, that means the local governments may issue municipal bonds by drawing on the experience of US with regard to this.” China launched local government bond pilots in 2011 and has since expanded the trial. The centrally controlled city of Shanghai, the city of Shenzhen, as well as Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces, were allowed to issue 3-year and 5-year bonds at the time, with the maturity period upped to 7-years in 2012. This July, the State Council expanded the pilot to Shandong and Jiangsu provinces.

Who calls the shots? The progress with these experiments is encouraging but the market is still very much at a nascent stage. For starters, China lacks the credit rating institutions that would provide bond valuations. To move forward China will need to develop a credit rating system, pricing mechanisms, a transparent information disclosure system, as well as regulatory coordination between the entities that oversee the bond market, according to An Guojun, a researcher at China Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.

REPORT

Huaxi village in Jiangsu province is a poster boy for supercharged rural economic development.

At present, the Ministry of Finance, not the local governments themselves, calls the shots on issuing bonds, Debra Roane, vice president at Moody’s Investors Services, told China Economic Review. The ministry has tight control over the maturation period and the amount of bonds issued. At some point, officials in these localities will need to take the reins into their own hands. Perhaps most important, cities and provinces will need to start producing real financial statements that include the liabilities held by financing vehicles. Only then can the risks associated with lending to the governments can be assessed. That’s happening under the direction of the central government in some upper-tier cities, but slowly.

Eventually, Roane said, they will need to “actually disclose those documents and have a greater dialog with the market.”

The bigger they are, the lighter they fall Developing sound bond markets in cities around China could take years given the process involved. And any progress in that direction would require strong support from leaders at the top. But that doesn’t mean provinces such as Jiangsu will soon end up in default like Detroit in the meantime. Despite the amazing level of debt local Chinese officials have managed to accrue since 2010, the cadres have little to fear. Analysts and rating agencies agree that it’s unlikely the central gov-

ernment will allow a city or province to go under. In a more open banking system than the one the country currently possesses, the situation would likely lead to greater concerns over the solvency of the banks that have done the lending, London-based Capital Economics said in a note. However, China’s closed capital account has kept worries of contagion to the global banking system at bay. In the short term, banks will likely continue to roll over the loans to local authorities that are having trouble paying them back, buying some time for the central government to initiate reform. Should a city teeter on the edge of default, the central government could always give a one-off capital injection into local banks, Capital Economics noted. Still, some small governments can’t take such an option for granted. The central authorities have a penchant for making an example of officials or institutions where they can afford to. Perhaps the safest local governments are the biggest. As China continues to muster international economic clout, the possibility that Beijing would let a powerful and important city such as Shanghai, an emerging global financial center, file for bankruptcy is slim. “The central government [would be likely to act] particularly if it was one of the larger, more visible and strategically important local governments,” Roane said. “I think the reputation risk to the central government would be pretty great.”

December 2013

封面故事

移动阅读制高点剖析主要移动阅读厂商的市场竞争潜力文 | 铁琴

明

年中国移动阅读市场的销售规模将

到103.2亿元，2015年移动阅读活跃用户

有望突破80亿元大关。移动阅读是

达到6.5亿人。

指运用手机等移动终端进行阅读的行为。

艾瑞咨询分析认为，移动阅读市场的

版权内容并未全部开放，各家内容量级处

移动阅读市场规模是数字阅读运营商在移

高增长反映出，一方面用户碎片化行为特

于积累期这种市场阶段，内容规模也成为

动端获得的用户付费、广告、内容合作等

点成为一种常态，阅读成为用户主要的休

内容产业的核心资源。李艳艳认为，用户

营收总和。从内容类型来看，包括电子图

闲娱乐服务，用户活跃度高、粘性强、同

规模在一定程度上能为版权洽谈加分，同

书、期刊杂志、原创网络文学以及移动聚

时付费意愿逐渐增强；一方面阅读电子化

时有助于产品改善优化。组织规模指厂商

合阅读等，不包括手机报收入。

将是未来重要发展趋势，传统出版行业、

在人员方面的投入情况，现在与未来企业

运营商、数字阅读内容提供商等产业链多

扩充规模能力的重点衡量指标。

中国移动阅读市场去年收入规模处于稳定发展状态，但较前年增长率有所下

方的联合推动，市场规模将快速增长。

滑，主要在于受新型资讯获取方式（新闻客户端、微博等的普及）的冲击，手机报

李艳艳认为，移动阅读市场中的用户规模、内容规模、组织规模等均为运营

三个维度描述企业能力

指标，而能够推动产业发展的厂商创新则

收入下滑幅度较大。另外，其他移动阅读

根据易观智库发布的专题研究报告，

以产品创新和渠道开拓最为重要。用户需

厂商致力于改善产品用户体验，行业仍处

李艳艳对去年至今年主要移动阅读厂商在

求分析：对不同用户喜好的分析、推荐能

于跑马圈地、培养用户付费习惯的阶段。

执行能力和创新能力的变化情况做出了解

力。产品设计能力：产品UI，功能等方面

易观智库分析师李艳艳预计，明年中国移

读。从产业发展周期看，移动阅读市场仍

的设计能力，决定产品的用户体验。技术

动阅读市场销售规模将达到82.3亿元。

处于缓慢发展，各家企业共同做大市场的

开发能力：通过技术实现产品设计更好的

随着各移动阅读厂商产品不断完善，

阶段，所以在一阶段选取内容规模、用户

展现等方面的能力。渠道能力：推广与销

上游内容提供商内容不断开放，用户习惯

规模与组织规模三个维度描述企业市场执

售渠道、策略等创新能力。商业化能力：

逐渐养成。李艳艳预计2015年收入规模达

行能力。

收费来源、收费方式等创新能力。

阅读电子化将是未来重要的发展趋势

内容的多少与内容质量决定能够提供给用户什么，在目前移动阅读市场电子书

December 2013

领先者与务实者领先者在商业模式创新或产品/服

2012-2015移动阅读市场收入规模预测

务创新性上拥有较强的独特性，同时具有很好的系统执行力能够把创新性提供

125

60%

给市场并获取较高的市场认可。去年移动阅读市场领先者是中国移动、中国电

49.8% 50%

100

信、iReader、91熊猫看书 40%

移动阅读市场的领先者均拥有庞大的个人用户规模和较强的渠道能力。中国

移动与中国电信手机阅读分别依托中国移动与中国联通的用户规模、便捷的支付渠

22.1%

% 24.3%

25.4%

道、以及移动网络优势，在移动阅读市场具备领先优势，但中国移动手机阅读的创新能力不足，未来将会走向务实者象限。

30%

20% 18.6% 18 6% % 25 30.5

45.7

54.2

66.2

82.3

103.2

2010

2011

2012 (F)

2013 (F)

2014 (F)

2015 (F)

10%

iReader凭借在非智能机时代积累的用户资源，在智能终端时代逐步打造产品

能力，借助在渠道方面的资源优势逐步实

市场规模（亿元）

现转型，扩充用户规模，目前成绩斐然，

环比增长率

用户规模达到8000万之多，并已向商业化方向转型，未来仍处于领先者象限。 91熊猫看书为网龙公司旗下业务线，

来源：易观国际 · 易观智库 · eBI中国互联网商情

主打网络文学内容，与多家网络文学内容提供商合作，并搭建自身网络文学原创平

拥有海量内容资源的盛大文学旗下客户端

台，积累较多内容资源。另外91熊猫看书

产品，在内容方面优势突出，但由于进入

多看科技成立之初致力于开发电子

最突出的优势在于渠道方面，随着移动互

市场较晚，以及产品能力不足，目前内容

阅读器中文软件系统，后来转型以书城为

联网的到来，传统的渠道以及营销方式发

优势并未发挥出来。

主，并开发基于多操作系统的阅读客户端产品。多看科技在产品开发、工业设计、

生了转变，应用商店成为优势渠道以及高效的营销方式，自有业务线91手机助手与

来越多，将会进入领先者象限。

创新者与补缺者

以及用户体验方面能力较强，并一直作为

安卓网为91熊猫看书带来规模新增用户。

创新者在产品/技术上的投入很大，并

努力的重点，内容方面发展精品图书，整

但随着360手机助手、QQ手机助手等具备

在商业模式、技术或者产品服务的创新性

体客户端体验较高，创新能力较强。但由

体系化优势的厂商发力，91手机助手将会

上有独特的优势。但是由于种种原因没有

于电子书籍数量还未规模化，用户积累方

面临较大的挑战，91熊猫看书也会受到影

得到很好的市场表现。创新者迫切需要获

面处于起步发展阶段，目前仍然处于创新

响，李艳艳预计，91熊猫看书受渠道方面

取研发投入的产出，将会大力改变整个产

者象限，未来多看科技的产品用户体验优

的影响将会跌入创新者象限。

业的格局。

势将进一步发挥效用。随着多看阅读扩大

而务实者评价拥有丰富的资源，执

去年移动阅读市场创新者：QQ阅

电子书开发人员的配置规模，规模化优势

行能力较强，但是创新优势不明显。去年

读、多看科技QQ阅读拥有腾讯体系化产

将逐步显现，李艳艳预计今年多看将进入

移动阅读市场务实者：百阅、云中书城、

品打包优势、便捷多样的推广渠道以及腾

领先者象限。

沃阅读。沃阅读作为中国联通基地项目，

讯规模用户基数，自身阅读产品定位于平

去年移动阅读市场补缺者是塔读文

掌握着较多内容资源以及用户资源，但目

台化的发展路径，依靠上述优势在内容的

学、亿部书城、开卷有益、书旗免费小

前来看渠道、支付、用户基数方面的优势

洽谈合作上难度不大，用户数的增长速度

说。塔读文学、亿部书城、开卷有益以及

并未发挥出来。百阅作为阅读市场的老牌

较快，但由于QQ阅读属于较晚进入移动

书旗免费小说各自有自身的优势。李艳艳

阅读厂商，积累规模的用户资源与内容资

阅读市场的厂商，目前较多优势还未充分

表示，目前来看这四家在创新能力指标方

源，并在内容方面与盛大文学结为战略合

发挥出来，处于创新者象限。李艳艳预

面仍需要加强。另外，开卷有益与书旗免

作伙伴，但在产品与技术方面一直未有跨

计，今年随着QQ阅读体系化优势的逐步

费小说如何将原有用户规模平滑转移对创

越性的发展。李艳艳认为，云中书城作为

彰显，以及QQ阅读在内容方面的积累越

新能力的要求也较高。

December 2013

REPORT

Comprehensive change Xi's got a plan, but now he must put it in place

pon issuing a detailed reform plan at the end of the Third Plenum, Chinese president and communist party chief Xi Jinping has cast himself as a reformer. Implementing the plan will be far more difficult, however. A short, ambiguous message issued at the close of a highlevel Chinese policy meet last week left China watchers fretting at the prospect of another 10 years of directionless economic reform. But before the workweek was out, the Communist Party answered back at those worries. In a lengthy and highly-anticipateddocument, China’s leadership delivered what some analysts have called the most important policy statement on the country’s economic transition in more than a decade. As leaders promised before the start of a four-day top-level meeting known as the Third Plenum, the plan covered a vast range of issues, from breaking apart state monopolies and liberalizing interest rates to freeing up rural land sales and allowing private investment in sectors still guarded by the state. It pinpointed 15 succinct areas of reform and 60 tasks to be carried out. At the heart of the plan, China Economic Review points to three essential goals the party will seek to achieve over the next several years: Increasing the role of the market in the economy, better allocating capital to where it is truly needed and shifting wealth from the state into the pockets of consumers.

December 2013

Xi Jinping has shown he has the power to push through change. Now he must do it.

It’s likely the biggest single reform package issued by the Chinese Communist Party since a similar meeting in 1993, where, under the direction of party chief Jiang Zemin and premier Zhu Rongji, the government pushed through major changes to the tax system and began dismantling some state firms. The reception from analysts has been warm, especially after a dull 500word communiqué issued at the close of the plenary session disappointed Asian markets. That document gave few new ideas on how the party would operate the country’s economic engine over the next 10 years. It even seemed to vindicate worries that the party elite would maintain the status quo of a market still dominated by inefficient state firms. The document, labeled “Decisions

on Several Important Issues Regarding Comprehensively Deepening Reform,” looks strikingly close to a “master plan” Chinese president and party chief Xi Jinping promised before the meeting. That will add to the growing tendency to compare him with Deng Xiaoping, the reformist leader who pulled China from economic and political despair in the late 1970s. Now that Xi and the head of the government Li Keqiang have won over many skeptics on their political wherewithal for pushing through a clearly reformist agenda, the duo will face a monumental challenge during the following nine years in which they are expected to hold power: Actually seeing it through. “The key is implementation, all the way down to the local level,” Standard Chartered said in a report.

REPORT

This won’t be easy given how interdependent each proposed reform is on the next. A failure to perform in one area will send a ripple effect through China’s rebalancing process as a whole. Some reforms may even step on the toes of others. Take for example one of the landmark developments mentioned in the plan: A partial change to the hukou system. This will require several other major changes to be put in place before this outdated residence system can be finally dissolved. The hukou system divides Chinese citizens, and the social benefits they receive, into rural and urban. For more than two decades, rural citizens have been relatively free to move to cities, yet they have been excluded from the educational and health systems that urbanites have access to. These inflexible rules have clogged China’s urbanization efforts and created a yawning wealth gap in many cities. The new plan would free up some movement from the countryside to smaller cities. In the future, farmers

should get welfare benefits such as education for their children after they move to a small to medium conurbation. This, however, will require a massive shift in expenditures from rural areas to the cities where new migrants settle. Even without that pressure, city governments in China are already highly indebted. The success of any reform to China’s hukou system will hinge primarily on other proposed reforms on how local governments fund their operations. That’s another part of the plan. For nearly two decades Chinese cities haven’t been allowed to borrow directly from banks. They’ve also been responsible for the lion’s share of development projects in the country and have since racked up what could be more than US$4 trillion in offthe-books debt. Xi’s master plan will seek to remedy this problem by letting local governments issue bonds to raise capital for development. Transparent sources of funding are critical in pumping cash into welfare systems. Furthermore, those migrants will

Reform is the word on everyone’s mind when it comes to China.

need to show up in cities with cash in hand if they are to buy homes and set up businesses. The “Decisions” document no doubt has an answer for that too. Restrictions on the sales of rural construction land could be lifted. This means that farmers may get better compensation for their land as they move to cities. One possible scenario here is establishing rural land markets where villages and land developers conclude transactions directly. This would push out of the picture local governments that have traditionally procured the land at below market prices then sold to developers at a profit. This is certainly good news for farmers who have long felt cheated by the current land compensation system. But local governments depend on land sales for up to 40% of their revenues. Taking away this revenue stream will hurt their ability to build roads and other infrastructure, especially at a time when more migrant workers will be coming to the city from the countryside. Overall, the hukou is only a small part of China’s new reform blueprint that is now coming into view. Yet, the overlapping challenges within that part of reform demonstrate the level of difficulty Beijing faces in pushing through such major changes to a system that has scraped along for decades. Many will congratulate Xi and Li for pushing through the plan against what was surely strong opposition from conservatives. But only strict – and delicate – implementation of this economic blueprint can earn the two a spot in history among reformers such as Deng Xiaoping.

December 2013

REPORT

Upending reform The voice of vested interest heard loudest at the Third Plenum

he Third Plenum raised more questions than some hoped it would answer. The meeting was by most accounts China’s biggest policy event of the year. Major decisions on the long-term economic direction of the country were expected to be made. It dwarfed in importance even the National People’s Congress in March which ushered in the new leadership lineup headed by Xi Jinping and premier Li Keqiang. Little was initially revealed on what the Communist Party’s highest ranking leaders discussed behind closed doors in a heavily guarded Beijing hotel during the four-day gathering. “It would be foolish to rush to a snap judgement” on the plenum at this point, Mark Williams, chief Asia Economist at London-based Capital Economics, said in a note just after the meeting closed on November 12, The initial communiqué, in the simplest of terms, pointed to a longterm process that should bear some concrete results by 2020. It mentioned establishing a special group within the party structure to press ahead with a reform agenda, diminishing the role of the government in the financial sector and forging major changes in social welfare, education and perhaps even changes to the way farmers sell land. Still, many analysts called the communiqué, issued via party mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency, disappointing. A more detailed document eventually came from the decisions made during

December 2013

the plenum. The “decisive role” for the market that leaders promised in their message will likely trickle down into substantial reform – albeit at a slow, measured pace. One signal from the group of 415 officials who sat through meeting after meeting was overtly clear: Powerful state-owned enterprise is here to stay. These clunky, often-highly inefficient bastions of the command economy are set to remain the “dominant form of ownership” in China for the foreseeable future, dashing hopes that the plenum would be the impetus for major change in one of China’s biggest obstacles to further development. “The main disappointment appears to be on SOE reform where the government appears to be treading lightly,” Francis Cheung, China analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, said in a note. “The government wants to maintain control and influence on SOEs.” Powerful figures at state firms are

advancing their interests at the expense of those seeking comprehensive reform. Their voices boom loudly in the halls of power. Party leaders and state-firm executives have capitalized greatly from state monopolies, the lack of free-market competition and the diluting of reform. To break apart state-backed business and lessen its grip over the economy is equal to draining the influence of officials that have locked themselves into powerful positions they can’t afford to lose. The benefits from reforming state enterprise are huge. Currently, these behemoths swallow up credit that could go to more efficient private firms. They close entire sectors off from the participation of innovative, often private, companies, resulting in a subpar service industry and higher prices for end consumers. The firms are also notorious polluters that have successfully fought off government attempts to clean up the country’s heavily degraded environment. For taxpayers, these firms also offer a poor return on the state’s most valuable assets. They sit on prized resources but fail to maximize any gains. That, after 35 years of reform and opening, the Communist Party has once again clarified its dedication to state firms is a reminder of the power that vested interests wield behind the scenes. It’s also a reason to be skeptical of pledges for “comprehensively deepening reform.”

VIE W

One-child policy Don’t expect China to have more babies anytime soon

he Third Plenum left the world with much to ponder. One issue in particular triggered huge excitement: Loosening of the one-child policy. But this is also likely going to be the greatest disappointment in terms of contribution to China’s development. China will allow couples in which one person is an only child to have two babies. Under the current rules, only couples in which both persons have no siblings can have two children. Since 1980 the country has restricted most families to one child. Officials at the time fretted about the results of a massive population on scarce resources. Between 1950 and 1970 the Chinese population exploded from 550 million to 830 million. Today’s China is different place and the policy change finalized at the Third Plenum, a meeting of top leaders, is long overdue. As officials argue that population control kept a lid on the problems China faced during its baby boom decades ago, critics point to the many failings of the one-child policy. Over three decades millions of babies have been forcibly aborted, some in unimaginably horrible circumstances. Cities are now populated by nuclear families, in which one child has to take care of two parents and four grandparents. Pressure on young people is mounting. The true costs of this social strain are only just beginning to become apparent. On a national scale a looming

demographic problem could derail the country’s growth. China’s economy boomed on the back of the cheap labor of hundreds of millions of migrant workers. They are not being replaced fast enough. According to estimates by the US Census Bureau, China’s population is expected to peak in 2025, and begin declining by 2050. The situation for some demographers is dire: Fertility rates in big cities are at record lows. Allowing one more child in some families will not solve any of the above. Fundamentally, young couples, especially in cities, are wary of having more than one child. becuase of the costs. Most parents buy expensive imported infant food because they don’t trust the quality of local products. Buying a home is out of reach of many. Just because they can have more babies doesn’t mean they will. Exemptions to the one-child rule introduced in the past decade or so for urban couples in which both persons had no siblings, as well as for ethnic minorities and some rural families, have not significantly boosted birth rates. Quantifying the boost to the population yields various results. Lu Ting, China economist at Bank of AmericaMerrill Lynch, projects that women of child birth age at this moment could produce up to 9.5 million more babies. Wang Feng, a demographer at Fudan University, sees no more than 1-2 million extra kids over the next three years. Neither of these figures is particularly meaningful and won’t sub-

stantially add to the labor force. Even if millions of couples decided to hop into bed tonight and reproduce, the state still seeks to stay on top of things. China will carry out “annual population planning” to prevent large fluctuations, Wang Peian, deputy director of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, told state media. Some observers cling to a positive: Easing the one-child policy is an improvement in human rights and personal freedom, with the government giving its people more choice. That is too generous. In fact, it’s not much more than an easy populist measure. Lu called it one of the “low hanging fruits” that Beijing could reach for in this round of reforms. China needs more babies. Its social and economic development relies on a stable pool of young people. This reform falls short of what is required to reverse the prevailing demographic trends. Only the complete removal of child control restrictions will do. But even if Beijing took this option there would be tremendous difficulties in getting it implemented. The family planning commission, which has around 500,000 full-time employees, would be stripped of its principal mission. Local government officials would also stand to lose out on their chance to pocket some of the billions of yuan they collect from families that illegally have more than one-child; those revenues topped US$2.7 billion in 2012.

December 2013

话题

解读大国策从投资和房地产视角看三中全会对未来趋势的影响文 | 攸风

十八届三中全会重点讨论了深化改革的规划

今

年二季度以来，全球经济增长格局

内，经济结构性衰退问题无法彻底解决，

更多的土地用于保障房建设，这意味着从

出现了2008年全球金融危机以来

经济增长动力不足。

供应层面对房地产行业进行调控。其它措施包括限制竞拍土地最高成交价，或在成

的新变化，发达国家重新成为全球经济增长的主动力，而新兴市场集体表现疲软。

对房地产产生直接影响

交价达到最高上限时要求配建公共服务设

展望四季度，美国经济受高新技术、房地

三中全会颁布了涵盖十三个要点的

施，如教育设施、医院等。近几年，政府

产及页岩气等方面的拉动，经济内生性增

政府公报，为未来发展指明了总体方向。

已经发现管制市场需求对抑制房价增长作

长动力逐渐展现；欧元区也进入经济周期

相应的政策细则有望于近期出台，尽管其

用有限。

性复苏阶段，但复苏前景并不明朗；日本

具体时间待定。高力国际认为，此次公报

此外，“统一市场”意在建立一个长

在“安倍经济”的刺激下，短期内经济可

中的四个要点会对房地产行业产生直接影

效机制，为地方政府决定其各自的房产调

能出现持续增长，但长期发展动力并不明

响；另有三个要点涉及商业及企业的整体

控政策提供更多余地。除出让土地外，地

显。新兴经济体将会受到近期美国逐渐退

发展方向，因此亦对房地产行业构成间接

方政府还可以通过其他融资渠道获得财政

出量化宽松政策影响，导致外资流出金融

影响。以下两表涵盖相关政策要点，亦包

收入，如发行债券或征收房产税等。上海

动荡加剧，影响其短期复苏发展。中国改

含高力国际对各类房地产物业受政策影响

和重庆从2011年起试行了房产税新政，税

革转型在即，十八届三中全会重点讨论了

之解读。

率按成交价的0.5%到1.2%征收。此外，

中国2020年前发展改革的规划，对未来经

高力国际分析认为：建立全国统一的

济发展具有重要的战略指导意义。但短期

市场，正如高力国际近期所见，政府拨出

December 2013

还有六个城市亦将有望实施类似的房产税政策。

让农民享有与城市居民同等福利。这将带来两大直接影响：农民需要获得出售其土地的权利—如果他们想要进入城市，则必须能够将其资产变现，并获得正式的居留资格（而非当前的外来务工人员身份）；同时，此举将进一步提高城镇化率（中国现有城镇化率约为53%），为各类房地产物业创造更多需求。此外，农民物业资产的货币化亦将增加农民的购买力，从而直接推动零售物业市场的发展（相比之下，美国与欧洲的城镇化率均已接近80％）。加强对物权的保护。这将减少政府对于房地产市场的干预，从而大大提高市场效率。加快自由贸易区建设。通过划定指定区域来孵化金融创新，这将对写字楼市场影响最大。然而，相关规划至今语焉不详。表面上，该政策关乎利率市场化和人民币自由兑换等放宽金融管制的举措，而并非房地产行业；然而，自由贸易区的设

进一步提高城镇化率

立将进一步促进新兴商务区及金融中心的报中所列要点能够顺利实施，个人、企业

新商业模式，促进科技成果资本化、产业

高力国际分析认为，市场在资源配置

和地方政府的决策将从短期方针政策转向

化。

中起决定性作用，将减少商业交易成本，

长期战略决策，从而引领房地产业的持续

提高效率和生产率，整个房地产行业将因

健康发展。

建设。

风险投资机制等方面做出了明确说明，未

此而受惠。增强政府公信力：对于商业及企业来说，不确定性将会减少，从而能在

“《决定》在健全创新创业体制机制、改善科技型中小企业融资条件、完善

股权投资八大利好

房地产业内形成战略远景。企业通常基于

通过对三中全会《决定》的深入分

正常市场条件对销售和供应量趋势进行预

析，清科研究中心分析师姬利归纳总结出

测，但不确定性的增加会导致预测误差加

几大看点，将会为股权投资行业发展带来

大。

广阔机会和腾飞契机：

来科技型中小企业的发展将广泛受益，创业投资的机会前景因此较以前更为广阔。”姬利表示。着力改革文化、教育、医疗、环保、安全等领域，股权投资机会将丰富。推动

完善金融市场体系，扩大金融业对内

鼓励创新创业，优化中小企业融资

文化企业跨地区、跨行业、跨所有制兼并

对外开放。允许民间资本发起设立中小型

条件，完善风险投资机制，创业投资机会

重组；鼓励非公有制文化企业发展，降低

银行并且健全多层次资本市场体系,其中包

前景广阔。建立健全鼓励原始创新、集成

社会资本进入门槛；鼓励社会力量、社会

括股票发行注册制改革以及进一步发展债

创新、引进消化吸收再创新的体制机制，

资本参与公共文化服务体系建设；健全政

券市场等。这些措施有望为房地产发展商

健全技术创新市场导向机制。建立产学研

府补贴、政府购买服务、助学贷款、基金

或投资者们拓宽融资渠道。

协同创新机制，强化企业在技术创新中的

奖励、捐资激励等制度，鼓励社会力量兴

综上所述，高力国际认为，公报预示

主体地位，发挥大型企业创新骨干作用，

办教育；加快公立医院改革。鼓励社会办

着全面的政策改革，改革将促使中国房地

激发中小企业创新活力，推进应用型技术

医，优先支持举办非营利性医疗机构。社

产业向着更高效、更市场化的方向发展，

研发机构市场化、企业化改革，建设国家

会资金可直接投向资源稀缺及满足多元需

对物权的保护亦将得到加强。之前用以刺

创新体系。加强知识产权运用和保护，健

求服务领域，多种形式参与公立医院改制

激经济快速发展的政策已不再适用于当前

全技术创新激励机制，探索建立知识产权

重组；发展环保市场，建立吸引社会资本

日益成熟、以服务为导向经济的发展需

法院。健全技术转移机制，改善科技型中

投入生态环境保护的市场化机制。文化体

要。因此，高力国际认为，如果政府在公

小企业融资条件，完善风险投资机制，创

制机制，教育领域，医药卫生，生态文

December 2013

话题

引领房地产持续健康发展

明建设以及国家安全等领域将呈现较大

业；允许创新方式走出去开展绿地投资、

股发行数量，拓宽股权投资机构IPO退出

改革力度，因此相关行业会吸引更多民营

并购投资、证券投资、联合投资等。完善

通道。但另一方面，注册制实施后，企业

资本进入，对于股权投资机构来说则存在

人民币汇率市场化形成机制，、推动资本

发行市盈率可能会下降，将打破企业高价

较为广阔的投资机会。

市场双向开放，有序提高跨境资本和金融

发行的现象，从而降低股权投资IPO退出

“单独”二胎政策放开，收入分配

交易可兑换程度，建立健全宏观审慎管理

的回报收益率。此外，关于“允许具备条

和社会保障制度改革，消费市场受长期利

框架下的外债和资本流动管理体系，加快

件的民间资本依法发起设立中小型银行等

好影响。坚持计划生育的基本国策，启动

实现人民币资本项目可兑换。资本市场双

金融机构”，有条件的企业或私募股权投

实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩

向开放，通过货币兑换，人民币或美元基

资机构将参与设立民营银行，进一步推进

子的政策，逐步调整完善生育政策，促进

金可同时投资境内和境外市场，基金的跨

政策性金融机构改革。

人口长期均衡发展。增加低收入者收入，

境投资将成为常态，可同时捕捉到境内外

资源配置中市场起决定作用，非公

扩大中等收入者比重，努力缩小城乡、区

的投资机会。此外，资本市场双向开放将

经济提到更重要地位，民营企业发展迎来

域、行业收入分配差距，逐步形成橄榄型

有利于中国企业开展境外并购和吸引外资

新机遇。关于非公经济发展，《决定》提

分配格局。建立更加公平可持续的社会保

企业进入国内进行直接投资，并便于外资

出，“必须毫不动摇鼓励、支持、引导非

障制度。单独二胎政策的放开将直接带动

LP投资境内基金，实现股权投资基金LP

公有制经济发展，激发非公有制经济活力

母婴消费产品的需求增长，催生相关消费

的国际化和多元化。

和创造力。”民营企业的发展是以市场为

品和幼儿教育的投资机会。提高居民收

多层次资本市场将健全，股票发行注

中心，“使市场在资源配置中起决定性作

入，进一步完善社会保障制度，将释放经

册制改革获推进，股权投资退出渠道将拓

用”，通过市场调配资源、开放更多领域

济消费潜力的，未来消费行业将呈现明显

宽。扩大金融业对内对外开放，在加强监

让民营企业进入，将给予民企更多发展机

投资机会。

管前提下，允许具备条件的民间资本依法

会。作为私募股权基金的主要投资对象，

外商投资和对外投资放宽，资本市

发起设立中小型银行等金融机构。健全多

民营企业在开放、公平的市场竞争环境

场双向开放，人民币/美元股权投资基金跨

层次资本市场体系，推进股票发行注册制

下，将焕发更多活力和创造力，并迎来新

境投资顺畅。放开育幼养老、建筑设计、

改革，多渠道推动股权融资，发展并规范

的发展机遇。

会计审计、商贸物流、电子商务等服务业

债券市场，提高直接融资比重。股票发行

国企改革进一步深化，行业垄断、

领域外资准入限制，进一步放开一般制造

从审核制向注册制度改革，可大大增加新

市场限制将破，股权投资将更多参与国企

December 2013

股票发行注册制改革获推进

改革。《决定》提出，鼓励非公有制企业

着地方政府举债空间越发有限，城镇化与

但回暖上升幅度不大。第四季度中国创投

参与国有企业改革，鼓励发展非公有资本

股权投资业的合作可能性将越来越大。

市场在宏观经济内生增长动力不足的大背

控股的混合所有制企业，鼓励有条件的私

姬利认为，《决定》将进一步释放改

景下短期难有较大幅度的增长。募集方

营企业建立现代企业制度。未来国有企业

革红利，中长期而言，中国经济将有结构

面，境外投资者对中国经济信心不足投资

改革改革将着重在破除垄断和市场限制方

性上升的潜力。在此背景下，经历了十余

较为谨慎，募资依然以境内投资者为主；

面发力。关于引入非公有资本参与国企改

年的完整发展周期后，中国股权投资行业

投资方面，投资项目早期比例会逐步加

革，此前，国资委去年公布了《关于国有

深受未来改革的影响，并将乘势迎来飞跃

大，随着改革的深入，创业投资领域可

企业改制重组中积极引入民间投资的指导

发展的契机，另一方面作为多层次资本市

能有所扩展；退出方面，随着IPO开闸预

意见》。三中全会后，股权投资基金将有

场的重要构成，股权投资将成为全面深化

期，IPO退出活跃度会逐渐上升，但短期

望更多地参与到国企改革中。

改革的有力工具。

内并购退出仍为主要退出方式。

投资活跃度将会上升

改革领域，徐宇明认为这些改革领域将会

三中全会决定了未来几年的多个重点

城镇化健康发展体制机制完善，基础设施建设和运营将允许社会资本参与《决定》提出，“建立透明规范的城市建

今年三季度投资活跃度上升较快，创

影响创业投资市场的投资方向的变化。例

设投融资机制，允许地方政府通过发债等

投机构对早期项目追逐热度明显增加，中

如土地方面的改革和对垄断行业的改革，

多种方式拓宽城市建设融资渠道，允许社

国创投市场共发生219起投资，其中189起

将会促进未来创业投资市场对农业和一些

会资本通过特许经营等方式参与城市基础

披露投资金额共投资18.42亿美元，投资

垄断行业（电信运营、铁路、能源等）投

设施投资和运营，研究建立城市基础设

案例数环比增长28.1%，投资金额环比增

资热情，吸引风险资本跻身这些行业。但

施、住宅政策性金融机构。”城镇化在与

长111.9%，投资活跃度显著增加（剔除

在短期内，受整体经济内生动力不足的影

股权投资基金合作方面，一是可以引导民

三季度顺风速运大额投资，三季度投资额

响，创投机构投资活跃度不会增长很快，

间资本、外资组建基础设施或产业投资基

增长依然高达62.2%）。

依旧会在低位徘徊。创投机构投资项目中

金；二是一些实力较强的融资平台与金融

清科研究中心分析师徐宇明认为，十

初创期项目占比可能会进一步攀升。徐宇

机构、大型机构投资者合作成立股权投资

八届三中全会为未来经济发展方向基本定

明建议，在当前市场不景气，募资退出都

基金；三是直接吸引外资、民间资本、央

调，投资活跃度将会有所上升。

存在一定障碍的特殊时期，加大投资早期

企等各类资本入股基础设施项目。预计随

第三季度，中国创投市场有所回暖，

优质项目是创投机构合理应对策略。

December 2013

话题

以创意实现商业价值商业创意助推中国制造向中国创造转型

国经济与社会的发展需要创意经济

中

略的创意如何能够最大化地创造出商业效

到科学和艺术之间获得适当的平衡的重要

的强劲崛起。与发达国家相比，中

益，从理论角度助推中国制造向中国创造

性。”

国文化创意产业的差距不仅体现在产业规

的转型。

模上，更体现在对全球商业创意领域理论

在技术日新月异的大变革时代，海

“商业创意简单说就是实现商业价

量信息扑面而来，向创意人发起挑战。同

值的创意。”贺欣浩说道，“乔布斯说

时，中国的经济发展也需要创意经济的强

“我们在全球创意产业的发展中，缺

过，如果创意没有办法实现价值，那就是

劲崛起。创意经济是新经济的核心，创意

少自己的理论和体系。我去年与哈佛商学

艺术。所以乔布斯终生追求的就是商业创

产业推动文化产业成为国内支柱型产业，

院的教授沟通时，他就认为创意必须要有

意。好的商业创意，能够帮企业不断地发

是中国产业转型的关键所在。

自己的特色，要有自己的风格。所以当我

展。所以在这本书中，商业创意的诞生，

金投赏倡导创意和商业的完美结合，

对他说，我能不能用商业创意（Business

通常由企业或者相关机构推动，通过外部

是一项旨在嘉奖中国地区传播营销领域中

Creativity）来定一个理论时，他说他非常

孵化或者外部的获取，最终实现商业价

各公司用最小的市场预算，获取最大传播

支持。”金投赏国际创意节（ROI Festi-

值。”

效果的专业奖项。无论是制作领域、媒体

体系贡献的长期缺位。

val）创始人暨总架构师贺欣浩说道。

美国直复营销之父和国际4A广告

领域、产品领域还是数字领域之间的较

11月13日，在亚洲最大的创意领袖

公司博达大桥的创始人霍华德 · 德拉夫特

量，创意永远是广告主和金投赏所重视

峰会第六届金投赏国际创意节上，贺欣浩

（Howard Draft）如此评价该书：“灵感

的。自2007年诞生以来，金投赏创意奖

推出第一部专注商业创意的理论著作《商

来自于金投赏6年的累积，非常扎实地开

已是亚洲领域发展最快、规模最大、参赛

业创意Business Creativity》，探讨在大

发出一种评估商业创意的工具，并发展出

作品质量最高的奖项之一。本届部分参赛

数据时代与全媒体整合的趋势下，营销策

一套全新的理论体系。读者能够充分体会

者来自全球最顶尖的国际广告公司、设计公司。作品涉及领域包括房地产、金融保险、医疗保健、公益服务、运动旅游等几十个行业类别。值得一提的是，今年新设立的推动工业设计创新进步的“产品设计奖”，使金投赏成为覆盖完整创意产业链的综合奖项。秉持“用市场量化创意”的评审标准，所有参赛作品在一流品牌主和国际4A公司高管的严苛挑选下激烈竞争。最终，结合每件作品的创意理念与商业价值，有120项各竞赛单元的金奖诞生。贺欣浩致力于在2018年之前，将金投赏打造成全球五大创意奖之一。他宣布将以商业创意的理论作为奖项发展的指导和标准。将使金投赏完成从中国制造向中国创造的转身。几乎99.9%的人都认为金投赏不可能成为全球性奖项，因为中国既没有到这个时机，而且离目标也太遥远。“但是有没有想过，如果有人开始去做，那么我们会离这个目标越来越近。但是如果你不去做，那就永远没有这样的机

金投赏倡导创意和商业的完美结合

December 2013

会。”贺欣浩说道。

网台联动助力原创将视频网站打造成“私媒体”的聚合平台

网

络视频如何与电视台更好地融合是一大难题。原浙江卫视副总监兼节

目中心主任杜昉加盟酷6是业界的一件大事，传统电视的大金牌制作人转身到酷6网当董事CEO，势必给网络视频的原创环境注入不一样的元素。杜昉拥有近20年的电视节目策划制作经验，曾在浙江卫视担任总策划，成功制作过多档在中国家喻户晓的大型综艺节目，代表作包括《我爱记歌词》《中国梦想秀》和The Voice中国版《中国好声音》等。盛大广告CEO朱敬介绍，盛大正在不断改进原创内容的平台和生态链，杜昉加入盛大酷6后，做了一些创新工作，如推动网台联动，联合电视台把原创内容做到电视上，让原创内容能够走出互联网，走到线下进入电视，让更多的观众可以关注到它。杜昉认为网台联动非常重要，要让所有的电视媒体学习互联网的思维，让互联网从业者学习电视媒体的专业度。只有

杜昉（左）和朱敬

将两者非常好地融合，形成网台融合的良好环境，才能够带动原创内容的提升。他

酷6上亿条的民间视频、3万个拍客，把他

优质土壤，因为在营销推广中，只做到找

同时认为，真正的网台联动是过渡性的策

们所记录的最好的生活内容发到酷6上，再

对人是远远不够的，找对人且将营销信息

略，但现在电视媒体和互联网媒体需要有

通过电视节目的评选，发现中国民间视频

匹配在最合适的媒介环境中，才是真正的

融合的过程。电视台和互联网是两个非常

中最有意思的作品，并给予较高的褒奖，

精准投放。

重要的平台，酷6正在做成“私媒体”的聚

这样就能够将网台联动的生态链串起来，

合平台，将中国民间原创内容优选出来，

最后形成范例。

在互联网时代，尤其是步入到移动互联网时代，广告创意的环境已经逐渐演变

放到一个比较正式和严谨的平台上去，这

盛大广告是盛大集团旗下以技术驱

成为“用户创造内容和需求，用户创造并

个平台就是电视台。目前还不能保证一定

动为主的广告平台公司，整合了所有重要

分享价值”。因此不论原创的门槛还是成

会成功，还在不断努力探索。“其实到最

的媒体资源，包括视频、文学、游戏和移

本都在不断降低，形成了一大批草根原创

终我觉得只有内容和平台，以后没有什么

动等。连续第二年参加有中国广告界“奥

者和海量的内容。“从广告传播方来说，

电视节目之分了，就是节目内容和互联

斯卡”之称的金投赏年会，盛大广告依然

原创环境里的内容丰富，挑战想象极限，

网。”他说道。

备受关注。以“原创让广告更生动”为圆

时效性强，营销形式也多样，所以制作的

酷6坚持要做成中国的YouTube或

桌会议的主题，畅谈自媒体时代的广告变

周期短、费用低、传播也更快。”朱敬表

者“私媒体”的聚合平台，这才是杜昉真

革。与会的群邑中国互动营销总裁陈建豪

示，“而从广告接收者而言，由于网民在

正看重的网台联动。正如目前正在浙江卫

以及娃哈哈市场部部长杨秀玲等也一致认

原创的环境中更容易激发好奇心，因此也

视热播的“全民奥斯卡”节目，希望通过

为，原创环境已经成为互联网广告投放的

更容易被有趣的营销行为所吸引。”

December 2013

话题

企业并购渐趋活跃中国企业的国内并购仍有上升空间

继

2012年下半年IPO的三大重要关

转，因此国内并购仍有上升空间。

管在活跃度还是并购总额都跌至近年的最

口全面收紧后，国内各行业都掀

起了并购高潮。清科数据显示，今年上半

低点。

跨国并购渐趋冷

自2009年以来，中国企业的海外并

年，中国企业国内并购行为的活跃度基本

上半年，海外并购和外资并购在第

购迎来了火爆的四年。朱毅捷表示，企业

与2012年同期持平，并购总额明显上升。

一季度的突出表现带来了较为优秀的半年

的国际化需求、对海外资产的抄底心理、

在这6个月的时间里，国内并购共完成359

度数据。其中，海外并购共完成34起，并

资源能源的战略性并购以及充裕的流动性

起，较2012年同期的354起微涨1.4%，

购总额达178.9亿美元，虽然活跃度不及

是近年海外并购的四大推动要素。然而现

环比下降25.7%；披露金额的347起案例

2012年同期的一半，但是其交易总额在半

在的情况是：国内的流动性有所趋紧；大

共涉及交易金额127.40亿美元，同比大涨

年度的数据中处于历史第二的高位；外资

宗商品的持续弱市令资源型并购的热情下

73.2%，环比上涨28.4%。国内并购呈现

并购共完成13起，活跃度同样下滑，但是

降；美欧资产价格的回升令抄底机遇逐渐

出的良好数据，主要是受到第二季度国内

其半年97.12亿美元的并购总额仍高居历

消失；目前只有国内企业“走出去”的需

并购升温的推动。国内并购在中国并购市

史首位。

求仍然较强。但是仅凭企业的国际化需求

场的交易金额占比由第一季度的15.8%大

然而单纯从第二季度的数据来看，

难以令中国企业的海外并购行为持续火

幅上升至第二季度的86.1%。一方面是因

海外并购和外资并购的表现却并不令人乐

爆，因此朱毅捷认为，今年中国并购市场

为第一季度海外并购和外资并购的表现过

观。海外并购第二季度共完成16起，虽然

的重心将由前两年的海外并购向国内并购

于抢眼，另一方面也是由于国内并购于第

活跃度并未显著下滑，但是整体的交易规

转移。

二季度升温所致。清科研究中心分析师朱

模明显下降，交易总额仅为12.4亿美元，

外资并购方面，国际资本对中国经

毅捷认为，虽然目前经济的复苏力度仍然

金额占比由第一季度的53.3%大幅下滑至

济发展的信心非常重要。然而，国际上不

偏弱，且金融系统的稳定性也遭到质疑，

13.7%；外资并购的情况更差，第二季度

断出现唱衰中国的论调，这在一定程度上

但是相对于出现经济下行的去年而言，不

完成的交易数量仅为4起，2起披露金额

折射出国际资本对中国经济的信心有所下

管是商业环境还是投资者信心都有所好

的并购仅涉及2622万美元的交易额，不

降，并反映外资并购的趋冷。朱毅捷认为短期来看这种情况难以得到显著的改善。

2006-2013年10月中国新能源领域并购市场情况 7,000

6,000

5,868.60

5,000 4,000

2,000

新能源行业也未落俗套。截至今年10 月底，中国新能源行业无一起成功IPO事件，而并购事件却高达33起，并购金额超过58亿美元。 IPO三关持续缩紧，新能源企业上市前景日趋艰难。从IPO市场的事件数量

3,000

1,000

新能源并购火爆

2 114.59

1 0.00

2006

2007

630.66

531.00 2008

统计看，2010年是新能源领域史上上市案例数量最多的一年，全年共有17笔案例。2012年，随着IPO步入史上最严审

核过程，新能源领域IPO数量步调急剧放

缓，降幅达50%，全年仅有IPO案例5笔。

294.04 282.28 337.46

2009

投资金额（US$M）

2010

2011

2012 2013.1-10 案例数

目前，各行业IPO项目都因此受阻，今年至今，新能源行业也无一起成功IPO事件，清科研究中心分析师吴晗瑄预计未来

来源：私募通 2013

December 2013

还将持续减少。

在融资金额统计方面，2011年新能源领域IPO数量虽降幅巨大，但融资金额与2010年相距不远，紧随其后的2012年全年的融资金额随上市数量一起出现骤降，恢复到全年仅9.04亿美元的低谷，降幅接近80%。连续两年的融资金额递减，显示了IPO退出愈发艰难和出资人更加谨慎的态度。并购市场热度持续高烧，行业需加快整合发展。根据私募通的统计，以被并购方的行业作为界定方式。2006至今年10 月，中国新能源领域并购市场表现整体呈上升趋势，披露并购事件共96起。其中今年前10月的总案例数，已占据2006年至今全行业数量的1/3强。从2011年开始，新能源行业的并购事件出现大幅增长，全年并购事件数量达17起，涨幅超过100%。 2012年，虽然整个资本市场态势低迷，但新能源领域的并购行为却可圈可点，共发生并购事件24起。今年前10个月的并购事件也已轻松超过去年全年数量，且随着新能源行业退出渠道持续受阻，未来两个月的并购热潮还将继续上演。从并购金额看，2006至今年10月，中国新能源领域披露的并购金额达80.59 亿美元。其中，2007年仅发生了1起并购事件，且未披露并购金额。2008年和 2009年，中国新能源领域并购金额出现小

新能源行业并购颇为火爆

幅上涨。2010年，国家推出《战略性新兴产业规划》，对新能源行业的再次关注使

吴晗瑄表示，并购重组有利于企业整合，

当年行业的关注点主要集中在投资方面，

相信随着今年大量并购事件的发生，到今

并购金额方面，本季度活跃度最高

并购热度虽连带上涨，但并购金额却出现

年底，新能源行业的产业格局将重新洗

的房地产行业共完成并购金额35.91亿美

下滑。今年，新能源行业并购金额再次激

牌。

元，占比8.9%，位居第三。虽然上半年对房地产进行了较强的调控，但是房地产

增，全年并购金额占2006年至今全部金额超过7成，占比巨大。

跌至第四。

房地产并购走强

的并购行为并未出现明显的趋冷，甚至其

清科研究中心分析师吴晗瑄认为，虽

上半年中国并购市场完成的406起并

活跃度于上半年仍居于市场首位。朱毅捷

然IPO退出有很高的回报率，但新能源行

购交易分布于房地产、能源及矿产、生物

认为，造成这个现象的主要原因是资本对

业经过前几年的快速发展后产能过剩现象

技术/医疗健康、机械制造、清洁技术等二

于地产行业的增长预期并未产生显著的改

严重，许多企业的财务发展都不具备上市

十二个一级行业。从并购案例数来看，房

变：一方面，政府调控后房价没有出现大

条件，而且即使上市后以目前的发展情况

地产以55起案例，总体占比13.5%的成绩

幅下滑，部分地区甚至仍有增长，在宏观

也很难获得价值增长。因此，随着IPO审

登顶；紧随其后的是能源及矿产行业，其

经济较为低迷的情况下，政府调控短期内

查的日益严格和越来越有限的上市机会，

并购案例数达49起，占比12.1%；生物技

再度出手的可能性较小，因此地产业的承

新能源行业的投资者们开始积极调整思路

术/医疗健康行业以39起并购，9.6%的占

压不大；另一方面，中国下一轮的城镇化

以转向更加灵活的并购为主要退出方式。

比位列第三，机械制造行业由去年的第二

进程仍为地产行业带来较强的正面预期。

December 2013

REPORT

A second chance Can China get IPOs right this time around?

hen the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index hit an all-time high of 6,170 points in mid-November 2007, few would have guessed the bourse, now the world’s seventh largest by market capitalization, would languish at around 2,000 points six years later. And when securities regulators halted IPOs on the mainland last November, nobody could have imagined the moratorium would continue for more than a year. Now it appears the block on IPOs could end soon. When it does, China may significantly change the way companies list on its exchanges. In a major policy statement at the conclusion of the Third Plenum, the Communist Party said it would adopt a registration-based system for IPOs, or one that lets companies that meet a list of predetermined requirements register for listing. Previously, the China Securities Regulatory Committee often subjected companies to years of reviews. Some experts say that change could come as early as March. Under the system currently in place, the CSRC let firms rush through the gate and onto the market during times of high demand. Stricter regulation often ensued when demand was low. One primary reason IPOs are still unofficially barred today is a meek appetite for mainland shares and a fear that a slew of new listings would put a strain on already stretched market liquidity. Another concern is the finan-

December 2013

cial fraud at companies and rampant speculation on new listings that have rocked the market on and off for years. These risks have put the CSRC in a bind. It’s under great pressure to let Chinese firms list once again. The holdup has choked many private Chinese firms in need of capital at a time when access to credit is getting tighter. At the same time, Chinese leaders and the international investment community are closely watching the regulator, headed by former Bank of China chairman Xiao Gang, as it moves toward again allowing companies to go public. If it can’t produce healthy market conditions this time around,

the prospects for mainland finance are dismal. A sputtering stock exchange would bode terribly for China as it aims to transform Shanghai into a global financial hub by 2020. But so does one that rejects new listings. That the CSRC could do away with its maze of regulations altogether is a promising sign – at least for companies seeking to raise funds via an IPO. By July, 920 companies had entered their names onto a waiting list for IPO approvals administered by the securities regulator. That number has fallen since then as firms have given up hope or even gone out of business. Many withdrew their application paperwork

Shanghai, pitched as a top ﬁnancial hub, is home to one of the most volatile major bourses in the world.

from the CSRC after it asked firms to conduct self-reviews of financial documents and revenue forecasts. “The review process really had material impact on the listing issue,” said Zhao Xijun, deputy head of the School of Finance at People’s University in Beijing, citing the some 200 companies that have left the IPO list in order to revamp their financials. That’s a promising sign for a registration system that will require firms to self regulate. The push for an IPO registry has been a long time coming, not a surprise gift from reformers at the Third Plenum. One reason the CSRC suspended IPOs during the past year was to develop the system, Zhao said. Guo Shuqing, the former head of the CSRC, launched that reform within the regulator before chagning jobs in March. Building a registration-based system

would let market forces rule, something investors and companies may want yet Chinese regulators are hesitant to grant. A registry similar to the ones used in most other major capital markets would put the onus on underwriters and accountants to make sure their clients are in order before they head to the market. Up until now, the CSRC has tried to do most of that work by itself. Its record is patchy at best. Demand for mainland equities has been low in part because of incidents of high speculation on IPOs followed by fraud cases. The share price of Wanfu Biotechnology Agricultural Development tumbled by more than 75% in April after a CSRC investigation showed the company had been inflating its sales figures since 2008. Ping An Securities, which handled the listing, was suspended from underwriting for three months in May for its involvement with Wanfu. Cases such as this have undermined the regulator’s attempt to get the market back on track. The persistence of fraud at underwriters in China is a reminder that bad practices will remain a serious concern when companies start to list again. “These professional agencies in the market should take a part of the responsibility held by the CSRC,” Zhao said. “Some of this work should be enhanced by these underwriters and lawyers.” For a registration system to function properly, the CSRC must transfer much of its power over the market to underwriters, accountants, as well as to China’s judiciary. If punishment for corporate fraud is increased, all players in the market will have to reconsid-

er cooking sales figures – or covering such practices up – with the hopes of cashing in on an IPO. Striking a new balance will take time. Underwriters, law firms and the companies themselves are not yet ready to self-regulate, said one mainland securities analyst who asked that her name not be used because she didn’t have permission to speak to the press. “The environment in China is just not there yet,” she said. China, though, is keen on financial experiments. The analyst said a trial for a registration system could first be instituted on the New Third Board, the country’s version on an over-thecounter market launched this year. A date for the mainland’s next IPO is still a guess at present. However, given that the new administration in Beijing has blessed the CSRC’s work on a registry, it’s likely the system will be implemented as soon as IPOs resumes, Zhao said. In that case, China could update its listing system as early as this coming March, the next time the regulator will hold a major internal meeting and can review an article in the Securities Law that requires companies to pass an approval board before listing. That would be a leap of faith. The risks of reopening the IPO markets with less-centralized regulation are high, especially at a time with such low liquidity and the specter of fraud. Yet, if all goes well, the spoils could be huge, and not only for firms, underwriters and investors. The move could be one of the only ways to put the country quickly back in line with it its goal of making Shanghai a global financial hub with any chance of competing with Hong Kong by 2020.

December 2013

REPORT

Foreign homes For Chinese, bricks are worth their weight in gold as they snap up luxury housing

or those tracking the trends of rich Chinese, few areas are more engrossing than overseas investments. Particularly, observers have been following the flight of yuan into homes in some of the world’s leading cities. A new report by British property agency Knight Frank indicates that this is accelerating: The Chinese are now the world’s biggest buyers of expensive new properties. In November 2011 a joint report by Bank of China and Hurun, a research and publishing house, claimed that up to half of China’s mega rich, those with at least US$16 million in the bank, were considering emigrating. Cue much speculation that the elites were lining up to flee. While that may hold some truth, it shouldn’t mask the underlying motivation of Chinese investors: A desire to seek greater returns on their hardearned, and sometimes ill-gotten, cash. “Chinese buyers’ global presence is fueled in part by a strong yuan and slowing domestic economy, both of which are encouraging Chinese investors to look further afield in an attempt to diversify their investments,” Knight Frank said in the report. The conditions triggering this wave of overseas property investment look like they are strengthening. Expect ever greater swathes of big cities to become Chinese enclaves. This year will be the third consecutive year of sub-10% annual GDP

December 2013

growth in China and may be the joint weakest since 1990. There are mounting expectations that annual government growth targets will be lowered to 7% from 2014 as the new political leadership appears prepared to accept weaker expansion as it reconfigures how the economy works. The performance of the yuan has also encouraged greater overseas activity. According to one property agent in London, a falling pound and rising renminbi make the UK a smart investment destination. The pace of the yuan’s strengthening against the pound since 2008 has outstripped the increase in prime property prices in the British capital, meaning it is cheaper for Chinese to buy top properties in the city now than it was five years ago. London is the third most popular city for Chinese buyers of expensive homes after Hong Kong and New York, according to the Knight Frank report. Foreign nationals bought US$3.5 billion worth of newly built residential units in London in 2012, with Chinese buyers among the top three, according to a separate report issued by Knight Frank this year. Expect this to continue as the renminbi becomes more global. Premier Li Keqiang has promised to press ahead with internationalizing the currency. His newly opened Shanghai free trade zone pet project is expected to be a test-bed for currency reforms. Poor returns at home are also pushing assets outside the nation’s borders.

The equity markets have been among the world’s worst performing in recent years. Bank deposit rates are bolted to the floor. Increasingly expensive highend properties mean nobody talks about finding a “bargain.” One Shanghai-based firm that specializes in helping Chinese investors acquire premium property in Europe has switched from servicing individual buyers to marketing new developments to groups of investors pooling their money together. The reasoning: Most Chinese are on the hunt for investment bargains in the region; they don’t want to live there. Jones Lang LaSalle, a US-based global real estate services firm, estimated in an August report that Chinese overseas investment will continue to expand at around 30% in 2013, with real estate a priority target. A stronger yuan and fast-growing prime property prices in cities such as London and New York were noted as among the main drivers behind the outflow. High down payments of up to 50% on domestic properties, the legacy of a near four-year campaign to curb house prices, are also putting buyers off, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. By contrast, down payments on offshore residences can be as low as 25%. Over the next decade millions of wealthy Chinese will invest abroad. Some will move; most will just move their money with the conviction that it will buy far more overseas than it ever could at home.

REPORT

Chinese banks abroad Brazil is a long way from home for China Construction Bank

hen a Chinese engineering firm sets off to build a road or a dam in a distant country, a Chinese bank is usually not far behind them. A deal at the end of October in which China Construction Bank (CCB) acquired a lender in Brazil underscores the size of the banks’ ambitions. The second-largest Chinese bank by assets agreed to pay 1.62 billion reais (US$716 million) for 72% of Banco Industrial e Comercial. By all accounts this appears a logical deal. Trade between these two BRIC giants has blossomed for over a decade, growing from US$6.7 billion in 2003 to nearly $75 billion in 2012.Vessels carrying commodities to the East to fuel Chinese growth pass vast container ships loaded with finished goods sailing the other way, destined for consumers with new disposable incomes. But the hard part is to come. This is CCB’s first overseas acquisition and it will test its management capabilities in a country much different to home. Brazil’s once booming economy has started to stall; its richest man has lost most of his fortune in just over a year. CCB has grown into a major bank from its domestic operations, benefitting like its other state-owned peers from an interest rate policy fixed by Beijing that favors lenders over depositors. As domestic expansion starts to ease and competition at home rises, it is looking abroad. The bank is reportedly sitting on a war chest of US$15

billion earmarked for overseas buys. By going to Brazil it will follow a well-trodden path of Chinese banks expanding abroad to cater to the growing number of local businessmen targeting new markets. “The acquisition will help CCB serve those of its corporate clients investing in Brazil and gain non-China-related overseas exposures,” Christine Kuo, a senior credit officer with Moody’s, said in a note. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China have either already acquired foreign banks or wish to. According to Doug Young, a longtime observer of the Chinese business environment, when large state entities hunt in packs it is usually at the behest of their political masters. That works when there is demand to serve. However, the once blossoming relationship between two of the largest emerging markets has entered a difficult phase. By some measures, up to US$70 billion in Chinese projects announced in the South American nation since 2007 have been cancelled or are on hold. Senior Chinese executives complain of protectionism. Brazilian officials, reacting to their economic slowdown, are taking steps to support local businesses at the expense of outsiders. The country already imposes strict restrictions on foreign investments. Soon there might not be many clients for CCB to serve. Even if there are, its state management structure could complicate the

bank’s ability to compete. First, it has to prove that it can devise products and services that appeal to clients in the Brazilian marketplace, said Yu Fenghui, an independent consultant and financial commentator. “Whether the low-efficient inner management of CCB can meet the demand of market-oriented management in Brazil is also a challenge,” said Yu. “It is a common problem whether it’s entering the Brazilian market or any other capitalist countries.” At least CCB’s punt on Brazil is less risky than some other big overseas Chinese banking investments since the 2008 financial crisis. The small size of the deal relative to its assets won’t throw the Chinese bank in the deep end if it goes wrong, noted Kuo. Senior executives are hedging their expansion bets with an eye on Europe. The debt crisis is easing and the eurozone looks like holding together. CCB just opened its European headquarters in the tiny state of Luxembourg, a financial hub hoping to challenge London as an offshore yuan center. CCB Chairman Wang Hongzhang told Financial Times at the end of October that it is looking at acquisition targets in the region. This could be the moment to get in. “Europe has just passed its debt crisis and the economy is now recovering. If the economy is recovering, the financial industry will be recovering, too,” said Yu. “So it is a perfect timing for entering the European market.”

December 2013

看中国

老而弥坚中国人更倾向于将年长者与智者联系在一起文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

人

们常说中华民族

美习性已经消失，然大部份仍存留在中国

是什么原因导致中国社会的养老观念

尊老爱老，国民

家庭里。这就是老年人大多宁静沉着的原

和方式发生了转变呢？答案很简单—独

只要到了一定年纪，就能

因。中国是这样一个国家，那里让老年人

生子女政策，当然公寓楼的兴建也是另一

获得更多尊敬。相关的例

生活于其间，满觉得舒服安适。著者敢断

个重要因素。作为家中的独子/独女，未来

子在中国社会俯拾皆是，

言这种普遍敬老情操千倍优于世界各处的

他们可能需要赡养四个老人，但中国的公

有时甚至超过了西方人的

养老金制度。”在我看来，这段话放到八

寓楼却无法为老年人休养生息提供足够的

敬老意识。当然，各国人

十年后的今天仍不无道理。

空间。这一境况不难理解，但选择确实有

在一定程度上都对年长者

事实上，在当今中国的工商政界“家

礼遇有加，因为他们希望

长制”依旧盛行。与西方人相比，中国人

本篇讨论的另一个问题是退休年龄。

自己也能宝刀不老，长寿安康。但由于长

更倾向于将长者与智者联系在一起。话虽

我察觉到东西方社会对退休与退休年龄的

期受到儒家和道家思想的影响，中国社会

如此，里根1981年当选美国总统时已年近

理解不甚相同。在欧美，人们通常希望尽

给予了年长者在家族或团队中更多的话语

古稀，而希拉里 · 克林顿若能在2016年赢

可能地工作下去，保持社会活跃度和对各

权和决策权。

得大选，其入主白宫之时也要69岁了。

方面的兴趣。但在中国，老百姓倾向于尽

晏格文

然而近日中国政府颁布了一道新法

在当今中国的诸多企业，“大家长

早退休，然后便终日闲坐在电视机前，与

规，要求子女抽出更多时间陪伴老人，并

们”仍有一言九鼎的威力。李嘉诚先生就

宠物狗相伴度日。上述例子或许有些片

根据儒家信条侍奉双亲。此举让人颇为诧

是个很好的例子，当然还有许多其他类似

面，但若部分属实，原因又是什么呢？

异，因为在大众眼里“孝敬”一直是中华

的人物。

或许是因为中国的老年人需要依托

民族的优良传统，至今广为传承。但从事

中国的房地产市场在过去数年蓬勃

强大的官僚体系和社会企业体系才能领取

实来看，孝行已需要通过法律来规范，中

发展，开发了不少针对老年人的公寓和别

养老金，所以认为尽早退休无可厚非？或

国社会近几十年来的变化之大可见一斑。

墅，同时也催生出新的养老观念。根据中

许是因为中国的老年人自幼受儒家文化熏

那么年长者在当今中国扮演了什么样

国的传统，老年人应与儿女居住在一起，

陶，认为长者就应尽享安逸？我不知道。

的角色？与20世纪30年代相比受后辈尊崇

并由后者养老送终。但西方社会普遍倾向

但随着医学上的各类疑难杂症得到攻克，

的程度又发生了怎样的变化呢？林语堂先

于将老年人送进养老机构。而今这一理念

人均寿命不断延长（或从70-80岁延至

生在其出版于1936年的《吾国吾民》一书

也已逐步为中国社会所接受，但实施起来

100岁开外），我们亦需对自己的人生有

中发表了自己的看法：

仍有难度。

更好的规划。

“这样的社会，也不是没有它的可爱之处的。例如尊敬长老，常是很动人的。罗斯教授曾指示老年人在中国是最显扬的人物，比之西方的老年人，远为尊崇而受人敬视。至于欧美的老年人，他们总感觉自己过了有用的时期，而眼前是无报酬地白白受着儿孙的豢养，一似他们在其壮年时代未曾出力以养育其小辈的。或则此辈西洋老年人还会不断地大声疾呼，说明他们的精神尚属壮健可用。这样的呼声，徒见其可发一笑。好好受过教育的中国人没有会无故冒犯一个老年人的，恰如西洋君子不会有意得罪女人一样。有些这样的优

限，让人不免觉得有些悲哀。

December 2013

中国社会给予年长者更多的话语权和决策权

LOOKING AT CHINA

Old age Old age advances on us all eventually, but China is facing a pecular mixture of issues as its population ages By Graham Earnshaw

t is often said that old age is highly respected in Chinese society, and there are certainly many examples to show that people who reach a certain age in this society are generally granted a higher level of respect and in some cases even reverence than would be expected in the West. Of course, people all over the world respect old age to one extent or another, because it provides hope that they too can reach that number of years and still be mobile and sentient. But the traditions of Confucius and Taoism provide a basis allowing older people more of a right to speak and participate in the decisions of the family or the group. But then again, China recently enacted a new law that requires children to pay attention to the parents, visit them regularly, and generally treat them with the kind of Confucian filial piety that we all associate with traditional China and which we all thought was still basically active in Chinese society. The fact the law had to be enacted was a reminder that China has changed a lot in the past few decades. So what is the role of old people today in China and what level of respect can they expect from those younger than them, compared to what would have been true in, for instance, the 1930s? The concept of the patriarch is still visible in China, both in politics and in business. I do think there is a greater chance that people in China

will look up to people of greater age as a source of wisdom than would be true in the West. Even so, Ronald Reagan was relatively old at almost 70 years when he became US president in 1981, and if Hillary Clinton wins in 2016, she will be 69 when she takes office. There are many examples of companies in the Chinese world where the patriarch remains the real power. Li Ka-shing immediately springs to mind, but there are many others. The property market in China has seen the beginnings of a new concept in the past couple of years, that of retirement homes and apartments and villas and estates aimed to be bought for old people. The traditional approach in a China context is to let old people continue to live at home with their family, and by extension also to die at home. In the West, on the other hand, the idea of placing aging parents in retirement homes has long been accepted, while it is only now being raised as a possibility in China. What has changed that has resulted in this shift in social attitudes and approaches to old people? The simple answer is the one-child policy, although the rise of the apartment lifestyle is definitely a close second. Only children have potentially four older people that they need to be responsible for and peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s apartments these days in China do not have the space to allow for long term geriat-

ric convalescence. That is understandable, and while it is sad to think about it, there is probably little choice. Another element in this discussion is retirement age. I sense a divergence between China and the West in the way that retirement and retirement age is handled. In the West, the trend is for people to wish to keep working for as long as possible, to keep active, to maintain interests that are social and wide-ranging. But in China, I sense a trend towards people wanting to retire younger and to then in general simply sit down and watch television or look after a dog. This is of course wildly generalizing the situation. But if there is some truth in it, I wonder why it is. Maybe older people in China are feeding off the strong bureaucratic nature of urban China and the traditions of the state enterprises, and feel they are entitled to do nothing as early as possible. Maybe older people in China feel they deserve a life of complete ease due to a holdover from the Confucian traditions that were more strongly in play in their youth. I donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know. But this is coming at a time when potential lifespans, from a medical perspective, may be about to jump from 70-80 to beyond 100. If we are all going to live significantly longer lives, as various diseases and medical conditions become resolvable, then we also need to have a clearer sense of how the time will be used.

December 2013

西游记

鸟鸣山更幽晏格文（Graham Earnshaw）生于英国，现居上海。他以上一次落脚点为起点，行程从上海一路向西，横贯中国。在本文中，他已行至云阳通往万州的公路附近。文 | 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw )

云

阳县城可算是长江流域的主要新城之一，三峡移民多定居于此。这座

城镇或许在面积和经济发展上比不过东边的奉节县，但酒店环境却颇佳，当然仍无

“那这么多学生怎么应付得过来？” 我不解。 “还有中国本土的外语老师呢。”他回答。

无法让我破戒。于是我便询问起最近的生意，她告诉我深夜的生意往往最好。 “我们要到凌晨才打烊”她边说边指了指四周的小店。这时我才注意到沿街

咖啡供应。站在城中，举目望去便又是一

“办学人真够精明！”我不仅感慨。

尽是霓虹灯闪烁的按摩店和发廊，想必年

座大山，山顶还有一座宝塔，据说原本是

用名字吸引生源，然后将成本降至最低。

轻的女孩们和顾客都喜欢在深夜来这吃些

逃犯的藏身之所。至于“原本”是指多久

最后，我没能见到这名唯一的外教，更无

宵夜。华灯闪烁的发廊可算是中国城乡的

以前，透露消息的老农显得模棱两可，但

意看低菲律宾人的英语能力，唯一确信的

一大特点。常听人说中国人和西方人不一

应该是在新中国成立后。

是他们的塔加洛语定是比我好多了。

样，非常忌讳涉黄涉娼的话题，事实真是

一路行至城郊，云阳外国语高中的牌

我在城中的一个小餐馆内解决了晚

如此吗？

匾赫然入目，这座私立学校占地颇广，因

饭，主食当然还是老三样—豆腐、米饭

这座城镇主要由沿河的三条公路组

为标榜英语教学，想必也颇有市场。我在

和啤酒。这几年来，我一路西游，主要靠

成，分别代表了上、中、下三个坡度，当

校门口停了下来，询问保安能否将自己的

这些食物解决温饱，而且特别偏好街头美

然其间还有一些纵向的岔道。我沿着最高

名片递给在校的任何一名外教。他瞟了一

味。在自己儿子的协助下，餐馆老板边忙

坡度的马路穿过小镇，发现街边的指示牌

眼对我说：“这里只有一位外教，是个菲

边向我推销价值108元的牛肉烩辣虾。这

多有中、英文以及拼音三个版本。所以

律宾人，但目前不住在这里。”

搭配听起来有些倒胃口，即使再优惠也

“白云路”被翻译成Cloud Road，而平安梯则被叫做“Safety Stairs”。之后我又沿着一条支路步行至河岸，穿过小桥西渡，离开了云阳县。于是我又再次回到山谷，身旁河水潺潺，途经的一座屋舍前写着这样一幅标语：“离开家乡，投入到三峡工程建设中去。” 岔道口有一座单拱石桥，看上去年代久远，桥身还刻有灵蛇腾龙，首尾横跨整座桥体。石桥可算是传统工艺的杰作，坚固耐用，又不失美感。美中不足的是 “永安桥”这个名字，不免落入俗套。但话说回来，三个字的篆刻手法精湛，形态流畅，也就让人忽略其他瑕疵了。一路上山势渐平，远远地还能望见不

December 2013

T R AV E L J O U R N A L

少稻田，其中有些是梯田，有些则未进行坡改。我的第六感告诉我，美丽富饶、良田满山的四川盆地就在眼前。要知道对我而言，稻田匮乏算得上是三峡山区为数不多的缺陷之一。此时眼前走来了一名老妇人，她似乎是在闲逛，忽左忽右，一头银灰长发像男子般散落在身后，丝毫不介意身旁呼啸而过的卡车和长途汽车。我友好地打了声招呼，她则向我回喊道：“八十八！两个八！”我想她是在说自己的年龄。 “恭喜啊！”我向她祝贺并提醒道，“但别走在马路中央，一起到路边说话吧。”

数月前刚刚通车，无论是长度还是海拔均

仍有如诗如歌的感觉。我曾在安徽的大山

在我们相伴西行的过程中，一只鸭

可圈可点，20年前定能登上《今日中国》

中见到过这种鸟，当时还听说它们的啼叫

子从道旁的沟里跳出，摇摆着身躯穿过马

（原名《中国建设》）的封面，但在今日

预示着种植季的来临。既然如此，想必如

路，加入了我们的队伍。于是我们仨又互

只能算是中国高速公路网络的又一据点。

今也是这种状况。一路上只见农民在水过

相照应地走了200多米，从走姿来看，队

如今中国的基建（道路、桥梁以及隧道）

膝盖的农田中辛勤作业，双手娴熟地将秧

伍步调极其整齐，只是我们很少和鸭子交

能力令人惊叹。美国是否应考虑向中国申

苗插入土中。尽管此时此地的鸟啼声调与

流罢了。

请建设援助呢？必须是!

安徽当地略有差别，但这并不令人奇怪。

站在云阳通往万州的公路右侧，亦

耳旁的鸟鸣声不绝于耳，尽管只有

能望见盘踞于山腰的高速公路。这条公路

“高-中-中-低”四个声调循环往复，但

毕竟，安徽和四川两地的方言也是不尽相同的。

Ducks and double-eight Graham Earnshaw was born in England and has been walking west from Shanghai across China since 2004, always starting each trip from exactly the last place he stopped. This month, we ﬁnd him in Yunyang County By Graham Earnshaw

he Yunyang county seat, one of the main new towns on the Yangtze River, was built to house farmers displaced by the Three Gorges Dam. The town was not as large or as prosperous as Fengjie to the east, but it had better hotels. Still no coffee, though. Dominating Yunyang was a hill topped with a tall pagoda, which I was told used to the

headquarters for a gang of outlaws. I couldn’t get a clear reading from my farmer informants on the period, but it appeared to have been at some point after 1949. On the edge of town, I passed the huge campus of a privately-owned school called the Yunyang Foreign Language High School. The language concerned had to be English, and it

was a smart selling point. I stopped at the school entrance and asked the guard if he could pass my name card to any of the foreign teachers. He looked at the card and said: “Well, there is only one and he is from the Philippines. And he is not here.” “So how do they teach foreign languages to so many students?” I asked. “Chinese teachers,” he said.

December 2013

T R AV E L J O U R N A L

Smart school boss. Pull in the customers with the name on the gate and cut costs to the bare minimum. I did not met the Filipino teacher, and I would not wish to understate the English abilities of Filipinos, but I do know their Tagalog is far better than mine. I asked for the card to be passed to the Filipino teacher, but I did not hear from him. In the center of town, I stopped at a small restaurant and had a simple dinner of beancurd, rice and beer, which had been my staple on walk days for years, preferably taken at a street stall. The restaurant manager had her son helping out, and tried to get me to buy the spicy prawns stewed with beef at a price of 108 RMB. It sounded like a disgusting combination, even discounting the fact that I don’t eat meat.

December 2013

I asked her how’s business, and she said it was best in the late evening. “We stay open until the early hours of the morning,” she said, and pointed to the row of establishments on the other side of the road, and on either side of her restaurant. They were all pink-lit massage and hairdressing places and the girls and the patrons would all be interested in late night snacks. The pink-lit hairdressers are a feature of all rural China towns. I have sometimes been told that Chinese are very discreet about illicit sex, unlike Westerners. Oh, really? Yunyang town is basically composed of three roads along the river - upper, middle and lower - with a few almost vertical linkage roads in between. I walked through the town along the top road, and inspected the

street signs, which featured three versions of each names - Chinese, pinyin and English. So Baiyun Lu was rendered as Cloud Road and Pingan Ti as Safety Stairs. Then I walked down a link road to the river side, and crossed a bridge that took me on to the west, Yunyang now behind me. Back on the mountain road, with the river somewhere out on my left, I passed a house daubed with a slogan saying: Give up your home, dedicate it to the Three Gorges Project. I saw a small and very old stone bridge on a side road, a one-arched construction with a dragon-snake built into the design, with its head emerging from the stonework on one side, and its tail on the other. It was a work of traditional art with a practical purpose. Only the name was a bit of a clichéd

disappointment – the Bridge of Eternal Peace – but was redeemed by the beauty of the calligraphic strokes of which the characters were composed. The hills became more gentle and I began to see more rice paddies, some terraced and some on flat land. I could almost smell the paddy-heavy Sichuan basin ahead of me. The lack of rice paddy is one of the few drawbacks of the Gorges mountains region for me. I met an old woman with boyishly long grey hair meandering along the road with a walking stick, now on this side, now on that, but mostly blithely wandering down the middle of the road with no concern for the occasional trucks and buses that roared by. I said hello and the first thing she said was: “Eighty-eight! Double eight!” She meant her age.

“Congratulations!” I said. “Now let’s walk on the side of the road.” A little further along, a duck jumped out of a ditch beside me, waddled across the road, and proceeded in the same westerly direction as myself on the other side. We shadowed each other for probably 200 meters in a repeat of the experience with the old lady, except that the duck had nothing to say. On the right of the old Yunyang to Wanzhou road that I was on, higher up in the mountains, I could see the new freeway, which had opened just a few months ago. Fantastically long and high bridges over the mountain valleys, each one a feat of engineering that 20 years ago would have merited the cover of China Reconstructs magazine, but now just another unremarkable part of the country’s national freeway

network. China’s infrastructural capabilities – road, bridge and tunnel construction – was phenomenal. Should the United States ask them for technical assistance? Yes! I heard a bird call which was a four-note song – high-mid-mid-low, repeated over and over. It was the same species of bird I had come across in the Anhui mountains, and had been told there that its call marks the start of the rice planting season. It was again the start of the rice planting season and here was the same bird again. I passed peasants knee-deep in water, thrusting bright green rice shoots into the mud. The precise tones the birds used were slightly different than those in Anhui, but that was only natural. After all, the human dialects differed between Anhui and Sichuan too.

December 2013

LISTING Accounting Firms

www.lufthansa.com.cn

Suite 628, 6/F Shanghai Centre,

Tel: +86 10 6444 8900

S101 Beijing Lufthansa Center

1376 Nanjing Road West,

Fax: +86 10 6445 3870

50 Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang

Shanghai

agan@harrowbeijing.cn

Tel: +86 10 6468 8838

Tel: +86 21 6279 8660

Northwest Airlines Airport

mba@mbs-worldwide.ac.cn

Office www.nwa.com 32271 Passenger Terminal 2, Capital International Airport

Saint Paul American School

Tel: +86 010 6459 7827

www.stpaulschool.cn

Harris Corporate Services Ltd

KLM - Greater China Regional

18 Guan Ao Yuan, Longgang

www.harrissec.com.cn

Office

Shanghai Office

www.klm.com.cn

Tongji University SIMBA

100192

Suite 904, OOCL Plaza,

1609-1611 Kuntai International

A309 Sino-French Center, Tongji

PRC

841 Yan An Zhong Road,

Mansion, B12 Chaoyangmenwai

University, 1239 Siping Road

Tel: +86 137 1881 0084

Jing’An,

Avenue, Chaoyang, Beijing

Shanghai, PRC

spasadmissions@gmail.com

Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 10 5922 0747

Tel: +86 21 6598 0610

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6289 8813

Fax: +86 10 5879 7621

Fax: +86 21 6598 3540

Livingston American School

Fax:+86 21 6289 8816

Shanghai

China Europe Int’l Business

www.laschina.org

info.sh@harrissec.com.cn

Air France - Shanghai Office

School

580 Ganxi Road

Beijing Office

www.airfrance.com.cn

(CEIBS) MBA

Tel: +86 21 6238 3511

Room 2302, E-Tower, No.12

3901B Ciro’s Plaza

www.ceibs.edu

Fax:+86 21 5218 0390

Guanghua Road, Chaoyang,

388 Nanjing Road West

Tel: +86 21 2890 5555

Shanghai Community

Beijing, PRC

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International School (Pudong

Tel: +86 10 6591 8087

mail.corporate.sha@airfrance.fr

admissions@ceibs.edu

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Business Schools

Road Qinghe, Haidian, Beijing

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800 Xiuyan Road, Kangqiao,

Guangzhou Office

Shanghai

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Pudong

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Fudan University - Washington

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Building

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British International School

Guangzhou, PRC

(English)

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Shanghai - Pudong Campus

Tel: +86 20 8762 0508

www.fdms.edu.cn/olin (Chinese)

www.bisshanghai.com

International Schools

Fax: +86 20 3762 0543

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Shanghai, China, 200433

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161-167 Des Voeux Road Central

Hotels

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Grand Mercure Hongqiao

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Airlines

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Beijing

http://china.portals.mbs.ac.uk

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Shanghai

Lufthansa German Airlines

Starts December 2013,

Chaoyang, Beijing 100029

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Beijing Office

Shanghai

PRC

Fax: +86 21 5153 3555

December 2013

Real Estate/ Serviced Apartments

reservation@

Hudson Recruitment

grandmercurehongqiao-shanghai.

(Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

com

2302-2303, 2201-2206 Hongyi

Block 1-4, No. 888

Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels

International Plaza, 288 Jiujiang

Changning Road

& Resorts PTE. Ltd. Shanghai

Road, Shanghai

Shanghai, 200042

Office

Tel: +86 21 2321 7888

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

www.starwoodhotels.com

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19/F Phase 1 Huanmao Building 999 Huaihai Road Central,

Park View Apartment wwww.parkview-sh.com

Lanson Place Central Park

Language Schools

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Chengdu

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www.Oakwood.com/reschengdu

No. 6 Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

The Leading Hotels of the

No.7 Xin Xiwang Road, Wu Hou

Chaoyang, Beijing 100020

World, Ltd. Shanghai Rep.

District, Chengdu

Tel: +86 10 8588 9588

Office

Tel: +86 28 8535 6666

Fax: +86 10 8588 9599

www.lhw.com

reserve.resfunderchengdu@

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oakwoodasia.com

Lanson Place Jin Qiao Serviced

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MandarinKing

Nanjing Road West, Shanghai

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Residences

Tel: +86 21 6279 8951

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Fax: +86 21 6279 8952

No.555 West Nanjing Road,

No. 27 & 28, Lane 399 Zao

Room 1207 12th Floor, Plaza

Zhuang Road, Pudong, Shanghai

555 Shanghai, PRC

200136

Beijing

Course Inquiry: 400 618 6685

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Tel: +86 21 5013 3888

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Fax: +86 21 5013 3666 Belvedere Service Apartments www.belvedere.com.cn

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Relations

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Tel: +86 21 6213 2222

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Guangdong

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Levin Human Resources

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Savills Residence Century Park

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Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

www.savillsresidence.com

www.levin.com.hk

Beijing

No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu

V15 4/F Goldlion Digital Network

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Road Pudong, Shanghai 201303,

Sandhill Plaza

Center, 138 Tiyu Road East,

Chaoyang

PRC

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Tianhe, Guangzhou, Guangdong

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Tel: +86 21 5197 6688

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

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Ogilvy Group

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www.ogilvy.com

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Shanghai

Beijing

Shenyang

ADP China

9/F Huali Building, 58 Jinbao

Shenyang International

30/F Golden Bell Plaza, 98

Street, Dongcheng

Software Park

Huaihai Road Central, Shanghai

Tel: +86 10 8520 6000

No.860-1 Shangshengou,

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Fax: +86 10 8520 6060

Dongling, Shenyang City,

December 2013

LISTING Liaoning Province, 110167

15/F China World Tower 3,

Luwan District

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1 Jianguomenwai Avenue

Regus Jin Mao Tower

Fax: +86 24 8378 0528

Chaoyang District

31/F Jin Mao Tower

CHENDU (3 LOCATIONS)

88 Shiji Avenue

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Lujiazui, Pudong

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Regus One Prime

Tower

25 F, One Prime

Apollo Business Center

No.1, Section 2, Renmin South

No. 360, Wu Jin Road,

Apollo Huaihai Center [New]

Road

Hongkou District,

4/F, Fuxing Commercial Building

Jinjiang District

SHENZHEN (5 LOCATIONS)

139 Ruijin Road (No.1)

CHONGQING

Regus Futian NEO

Huangpu

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Regus Yangtze River

44/F, NEO Tower A

Shanghai

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

International Plaza

6011 Shennan Avenue

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Development Co., Ltd

33/F Yangtze River International

Futian District

Apollo Flagship Center

www.antinganting.com.cn

Plaza

Regus New World Centre

Apollo Building

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

22 Nanbin Road

(NEW)

1440 Yan’an Road (M)

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

Nanan District

23/F, New World Center,

Jing’an

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DALIAN

No. 6009, Yitian Road,

Shanghai

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Regus Dalian World Trade

Futian District

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Center

SUZHOU

Apollo Tomson Center

12/F, 25 Tongxing Street

Regus Suzhou JinHope plaza

22/F, Tomson Commercial

Zhongshan District

(COMING SOON)

Building

The Executive Centre

GUANGZHOU (5 LOCATIONS)

11/F, Tower2, Jin Hope Plaza

710 Dongfang Road

Shanghai

Regus G.T. Land Plaza (NEW)

88 Hua Chi Street, SIP

Pudong

International Finance Centre

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

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Level 8, International Finance

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Center, 8 Century Avenue

Huacheng Avenue

8/F Tianjin Centre

Apollo Xuhui Center

Pudong

Tian He District

No.219 Nanjing Road

16/F, Feidiao International Building

CITIC Square

HANGZHOU (4 LOCATIONS)

Heping District

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WUHAN

Xuhui

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Shanghai

Xintiandi

18 Jiaogong Road,

Corporate Centre 5

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Level 5, Xintiandi, 159 Madang

Xihu District

8F, Wuhan Tiandi – Corporate

Apollo Hongqiao Center

Road, Luwan

NANJING

Center 5, No. 1628 Zhong Shan

26/F, New Town Center Building

The Centre

Regus Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Avenue

83 Loushanguan Road

Level 20,The Centre, 989

Tower (COMING SOON)

Jiang’an District

Changning

Changle Road, Xuhui

8 F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Shanghai

Tower, No. 2, Hanzhong Road,

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