CER March 2014

Q&A: A state-owned hospitality giant turns to the middle class

MARCH 2014 VOL. 25, NO. 3

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Regulatory surprises await Chinese miners in Greenland

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THE HOUSE VIEW Published monthly since 1990 Publisher China Economic Review Publishing Editor Oliver Pearce Staff Writer Don Weinland Chinese Editor Liu Chen Associate Editor Brenda Yang Interns Miljan Glenny, Greg Isaacson, Skye Sun, Winkie Zhang, Sean Lee Art Director Jason Wong Editor at Large Graham Earnshaw Associate Publisher Gareth Powell Director of Sales and Marketing Pierre Zolghardi Account Managers Ralph Wang, Jerry Cheng CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW (ISSN: 1350-6390) is published by China Economic Review Publishing

05 KEEP ON CLEANING | Environmental progress should spur Beijing to press on with its green plans

06 HANDS ON THE PUMP | While markets shouldn't panic over January’s high credit rollout, there is some reason to worry

MONTH IN REVIEW 8 NEWS BRIEF | The biggest China news stories in February

Q&A 10 TURNING TO THE MASSES | A state-owned hospitality group switches focus from public officials to the middle class

12 BUSINESS AS NORMAL | As China becomes a more mature market, US firms will need to adjust

COVER STORY 14 OVERPRICED AND OVERCROWDED | Small online stores struggle to build brands on Taobao and Tmall

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ECONOMICS & POLICY 18 RECLAIMING THE GHOST TOWNS | Ordos is finally figuring out how it can bring in people to fill its empty houses 20 AVOIDING THE TAPERING TIDE | China will ride it out 22 NOT AGAIN | January trade data is not necessarily fake 24 HEALTHIER SERVING | A major change to agricultural policy underscores that the people’s demand for better food is being heard

BUSINESS 26 THE CRACKS WIDEN | Declining property prices in smaller cities are a real risk for investors this year

27 FROZEN FRONTIER | Chinese companies entering Greenland Advertising enquiries ads@ChinaEconomicReview.com Hong Kong: +852 3174 6136 Shanghai: +8621 5187 9633 ext 811

face an unfamiliar regulatory surprise

29 STUDY ABROAD | Tourists can learn a few things overseas

MARKETS & FINANCE 30 UPWARD PRESSURE | Retail investors are leading grassroots financial reform

HKABC membership membership approved approved and and certifi certified ed HKABC

32 CLOSED BOOKS | US regulators are engaged in a fight with China they can never win

THE HOUSE VIE W

Keep on cleaning

Credit: Andrew Turner

Environmental progress should spur Beijing to press on with its green plans

SPOILT LANDSCAPE: China boasts many outstanding natural beauty spots but the countryside is ravaged by pollution and environmental damage. Slowly, however, there are signs of progress

N

o creature represents the power and symbolism of China’s ties to nature and the land quite like the horse. For centuries, strong steeds helped farmers feed the nation.

Even so, perhaps it is no more than sheer coincidence that just as the people of China settled down to usher in the Year of the Horse, some good news regarding the country’s torrid pollution was highlighted by a leading environmental report.

The 2014 edition of the annual Environmental Performance Index, compiled by US-based Yale and Columbia universities, said China had made huge strides in slowing the growth of its greenhouse gas emissions in the past decade.

“Despite high economic expansion averaging greater than 10% annual growth in GDP, China reported a 20% decrease in carbon intensity between 2005 and 2010,” the report noted. This is the amount of carbon emitted for each unit of economic growth.

Reducing the speed at which the world’s largest industrial nation is

pumping harmful gases into the atmosphere may not be the same as actually reducing overall emissions, the criterion by which rich nations are judged, but it is a start. The report’s authors are optimistic that the policies that delivered this deceleration will continue to bear fruit and may one day lead China to actually reduce emissions.

Under its 12th five-year economic plan, running 2011-2015, China vowed to reduce carbon intensity by 16-17% from 2005 baselines levels, with a longer-term goal of 40-45% reductions by 2020. That target may even be tightened in future plans.

“Although it is too soon to tell how effective these early steps will be, China’s performance … demonstrates the tangible results of policies implemented over the last few years that have helped to reduce energy and carbon intensity,” the report said.

This doesn’t mean that China has made similar progress in other environmental areas. It hasn’t. Heavy smog engulfed Shanghai, these days primarily a services hub, on the night before Chinese New Year. China Economic Review cycled past

countless open incinerators burning household rubbish and highly polluting tractors on country roads in Guilin province on a recent trip.

The index ranked China at the bottom globally in terms of air pollution with most of its residents exposed to dangerously high levels of PM2.5, a fine particulate matter. Overall it came 118th out of 178 countries, faring poorly also on issues like water.

Even on carbon emissions China’s progress could be better. The target of a 16-17% reduction in carbon intensity by the end of 2015 from 2005 levels looks like it may not be met, judging by early results for the fiveyear period.

Failing on this front would undermine all the small but important gains that China has made in improving its environmental record. Although the situation is dire, the country is taking steps to curb emissions and has invested billions of dollars in clean energy products and services with the potential to be deployed anywhere in the world.

Pollution threatens the health of the people of China and undermines their quality of life – the very thing the Communist Party has staked its legitimacy on improving. Top officials have no excuses not to force the issue home at all levels of government.

One argument they frequently wheel out to defend their record is that economic development is still the priority in order to pull its people out of poverty, something the report agrees with. Yet as the chief economist of technology group Intel warned, if not tackled, bad air will undermine China’s future economic growth.

Green fields and clean skies are a sign of a better life; they also symbolize progress. China simply cannot afford to keep damaging its natural surroundings any longer. At the very least it must meet all of the environmental targets that it has set for itself.

China Economic Review | March 2014

05

THE HOUSE VIE W

Hands on the pump While there is no need to panic over January’s high credit rollout, there is some reason to worry

T

he good news is the gears that keep China’s economy turning were well-oiled in January as credit expanded to an all-time high. The bad news is that such rapid growth in lending has revived worries about the overall health of China’s banking sector.

New loans in January hit RMB1.32 trillion (US$217.6 billion), a four-year high. Total social financing, or TSF, China’s broadest measure of credit growth, reached a new record of RMB2.58 trillion, far ahead of the estimate of RMB1.9 trillion in a Bloomberg survey.

The figures are somewhat surprising given the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) tightened stance on liquidity.

Since last June, the central bank has signaled that it won’t allow runaway credit growth, especially in the face of heightened off-balance-sheet lending.

Markets shouldn’t react with alarm to the surge in credit growth. In the first month of the year new loans are usually high. Banks have just received new loan quotas and have backlogs of loan applications from the year before. Many institutions will “front load” their loans, or loan as much as they can early on with the hope of generating more income on interest. The jump in lending a year ago was similar, although not quite as strong.

The data give some cause for worry, too. The percentage of new loans was higher than off-balance-sheet lending, unlike in December. That means the ratio of lending that was being channeled into the shadow

GENTLY DOES IT: Bank lending needs to be kept in check but too severe controls could disrupt credit flows

banking sector was lower. Yet, off-balancesheet lending hit RMB993 billion in January, up from RMB555 billion in December.

The figure was slightly lower than a year ago but shows that attempts to restrict the risky and opaque practice are failing.

Perhaps it takes an industry scare to fight shadow lending. New trust loans, one of the three main categories in off-balancesheet lending, weakened compared to December and the year before. China Credit Trust, a wealth management product (WMP) funded by trust loans, came to the brink of defaulting on payments, exposing their increasingly not-so-hidden risks.

At the same time, the remaining two categories of off-balance-sheet lending surged. Entrusted loans hit an all-time high at RMB396.5 billion. So did bank-

China celebrates a less-corrupt Lunar New Year’s The people of Fuzhou like their seafood. High-end restaurants in the coastal city, the provincial capital of Fujian, don’t skimp on the abalone in their soups. During Chinese New Year’s, no dinner is complete without the free flow of Chinese spirits such as baijiu.

But luxury eateries didn’t do well in the early days of the Year of the Horse. Neither did supermarkets and vendors that sold fine seafood and liquors. In Fuzhou, sales for high-end seafood gift sets dropped by 50%

06

China Economic Review | March 2014

year-on-year while fine spirit sales sunk 70%, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

After more than a year of party boss Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign, which has gone after communist cadres with a taste for fine wine and pricey watches, the steep slump in sales of luxury products during the holiday shouldn’t come as too great a surprise.

Yet, while the best dining rooms had empty banquet halls during the seven-day break (revenues at Hei-

longjiang province’s best restaurants fell by 20% compared to last year), sales at mass-market venues surged by 20% in several provinces.

That was the tone for Year-of-theHorse spending: Retail was strong but for more modest goods.

National retail and catering revenues during the weeklong holiday increased by 13.3% year-on-year. That was lower than last year’s 14.7% increase but analysts have pointed out that the official national holiday this year did not include New Year’s Eve,

THE HOUSE VIE W

ers’ acceptances at RMB490 billion, indicating that investors still sought dangerous shadow products.

For those rooting for strong economic data this year, the jumpstart in credit might belie the true state of growth. Much of the lending in January went to corporations looking to roll over loans. About 38% of new loans in January went to corporations. Companies in China must repay US$427 billion in principle and interest this year, almost a fifth higher than in 2013. The Chinese government might even let a couple of firms go bankrupt in 2014.

So, despite the record high TSF, not much was going into new projects, but rather propping up highly leveraged companies. “Real investment

commonly a night for big spending.

“People make big purchases and dine out on the Lunar Year Eve,” Lu Ting, China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a report, noting that the new holiday schedule could have a material impact on holiday spending figures.

The travel industry cashed in on the break. National tourism revenues soared by 16.4% year-on-year and air passengers increased by nearly 20%, according to China National Tourism Administration. Chinese have typi-

demand remains weak, as evidenced by slowing fixed-investment since August,” according to Mizuho Research.

The market is now looking to PBOC for some insight on the credit outlook for the rest of the year.

At the close of 2013, regulators at the central bank looked determined to rein in credit expansion at the cost of economic growth. While they still might be willing to make some sacrifices, PBOC has lightened up a bit.

In the bank’s fourth quarter monetary report, it stressed “stability” and “overall planning.” That comes in sharp contrast to the cash crunches it engineered last year with the intent of sending a message home to banks that said “manage your balance

cally returned home for the seven-day break but increasing numbers are now taking the opportunity to travel abroad: 4.73 million overseas trips were recorded this year, an 18.1% increase over 2012.

Xi’s anti-corruption campaign could even be pushing along holiday spending, just not at the high end. As officials and businesspeople cut back on extravagant meals and gift-giving, luxury restaurants and hotels are lowering prices.

“High-end restaurants and ho-

sheets better.” Barclays analysts said that PBOC’s self-described “prudent” policy stance can be tough to interpret and “at times this could mean tightening, loosening, a neutral policy stance, or a neutral stance with a tightening or loosening bias.”

However, PBOC isn’t as hawkish as it wants banks to think. When central bankers tightened liquidity and sent interbank rates soaring in 2013, GDP was posting strong figures, inflation was rising slowly and property prices were climbing rapidly. Things have changed. Growth is slowing at home, while tapering in the US has hit emerging markets and potentially their orders for Chinese goods.

The central bank will likely be more cautious going forward and lenders needn’t worry as much as last year over another major PBOC-designed squeeze in the money market.

As Wang Tao, a Hong Kong-based economist at UBS, noted, the true risk now is the volatility of credit.

Last month the central bank put out new regulations on WMPs in the interbank market, one of several strategies to beat back off-balance-sheet funds. These kinds of regulations put sudden stoppages in the credit market.

So would any full-on defaults in the shadow banking sector. If regulators come in with tougher measures, or credit defaults take the center stage, that will make for a highly unpredictable credit supply during the rest of 2014 and likely hurt real growth.

tels are seen offering discounts and cheaper dishes” when their deeppocketed patrons stop spending, Barclays Research said in a note. In this sense, the corruption crackdown is actually driving private consumption.

That probably wasn’t what Xi had in mind when he launched the campaign in late 2012. Nonetheless, it made for nice holiday shopping for members of China’s middle class, a group of people always looking for more bang for their buck and perpetually in the hunt for a good deal.

China Economic Review | March 2014

07

NEWS ROUNDUP

MONTH IN REVIEW ECONOMICS

Credit: Lian Chang

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China reached US$10.76 billion in January, an increase of 16.1% from a year earlier, according to a statement by the Ministry of Commerce. Ministry spokesman Shen Danyang told a media briefing that the rising FDI shows that confidence in China’s economy remains firm even as growth cools. The majority of the new investment, some US$6.33 billion, went into China’s services industry, while investment in manufacturing fell 21.7%. Investment from 10 Asian countries and regions rose 22.2% to US$9.55 billion, while investment from the US rose 34.9% to US$369 million.

China’s exports jumped 10.6% yearon-year in January, beating expectations across the board, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing data released by the General Administration of Customs. This was up from December’s 4.3% rise and far above economists’ median forecast of a 0.1% expansion, according to a survey of 11 economists by The Wall Street

Journal. Imports rose 10% compared with a year ago, up from the 8.3% rise in December and beating the economists’ median forecast of a 3% increase. China’s trade surplus widened in January to US$31.86 billion from US$25.6 billion in December, surpassing the median US$27.1 billion forecast.

OPENING THE PUMPS: State-owned Sinopec is

FINANCE

welcoming private investment in its retail oil unit

China’s new local-currency loans reached US$217.6 billion (RM217.6 billion) in January, the highest in about four years, Reuters reported, citing a statement by the People’s Bank of China. The January loans of Chinese banks beat a US$180 billion forecast and were nearly three times December’s level. It is usual for loans to spike in January when banks try to lend as much as they can to grab market share, but last month’s surge was unusually strong. The figures may assuage those who worry about China’s hazy economic outlook following recent data that showed conflicting trends.

The People’s Bank of China published rules governing investment by wealth management products (WMPs) in the country’s interbank bond market. The new rules, posted on the website of the central bankbacked National Interbank Funding Center, aim to curb the risks posed by banks’ off-balance-sheet business by forcing them to strictly segregate on- and off-balance-sheet assets.

WMPs are short-term investment products that banks market to customers as higher-yielding alternatives

to traditional deposits. At the end of September, outstanding bank WMPs were RMB 9.9 trillion (US$1.63 trillion), according to official data.

China’s State Council has set grain output targets below domestic consumption rates, effectively abandoning its long-standing grain selfsufficiency policy, Financial Times reported. The guidelines call for grain production to “stabilize” at roughly 550m tonnes by 2020, below the 2013 harvest of 602m tonnes. “While putting emphasis on food quantity, pay more attention to food safety and quality,” a document said, in a shift in tone and emphasis. A more liberal grains import policy was floated as a reform that might be adopted by President Xi Jinping, even before he became head of the Communist party in 2012.

POLITICS & SOCIETY China saw an alarming rise of new cancer cases and deaths in 2012 amid a global rise of the disease, with the country registering the most new cancer cases and deaths from four types of malignant tumors, South China

CHINA BY NUMBERS Increase in Swiss luxury watch exports to China in December from a year earlier

18.8% 08

China Economic Review | March 2014

$217.6 billion Size of local-currency loans in January, a four-year high

Number of years it took for the mainland and Taiwan to hold official high-level talks

65

$19.5 billion Value of polluting projects scrapped by the environment ministry

Morning Post reported. In the latest edition of the World Cancer Report, China accounted for 3.07 million newly diagnosed cases, 21.8% of the global total. China also saw around 2.2 million deaths, around 26.9% of the world’s total death rate. However, China is still not among the countries with the highest cancer rates or highest mortality rates.

China is directing a recent crackdown on prostitution, gambling and drugs to go national, Reuters reported, citing statement by the Ministry of Public Security. The campaign started in February after state broadcaster CCTV aired an expose of vice

3.07 million Estimated number of newly diagnosed cancer cases in China in 2012

in the city of Dongguan, where subsequent police raids led to the detention of nearly 1,000 people. In a warning to the “protective umbrella” of official collusion, the ministry said officials would be “seriously investigated, and crimes will be resolutely investigated in accordance with the law.”

BUSINESS

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, known as Sinopec, said it will open up its domestic marketing and distribution operations to outside investors, The Wall Street Journal reported. It didn’t give details about the investment program and stopped short of fully opening up its gasoline stations and other distribution operations to third parties by capping the amount of outside investment at 30%. The move is a nod to Beijing’s latest efforts to reform state-owned companies and encourage a mixed-ownership economy. Sinopec has the largest petroleum sales-and-distribution network in China, with 30,532 fuel stations as of the end of last year.

Tencent Holdings bought about a 20% stake in Dianping Holdings, the operator of a customer reviews website often compared to US-based Yelp, Bloomberg reported, citing a statement by Tencent. The acquisition will strengthen Tencent’s location-based services, allowing Asia’s largest internet company to tap into Dianping’s almost 100 million monthly active users who access the website’s reviews and discounts for food and entertainment. The Shenzhen-based Tencent may invest as much as $500 million in Dianping, Sina.com reported on February 17th, without citing a source.

People detained in a prostitution crackdown in Dongguan

1,000

Alibaba Group Holding announced that two of its US subsidiaries are set to launch an e-commerce site in the US as it seeks to expand in the world’s largest e-commerce market, The Wall Street Journal reported. The two subsidiaries, Vendio and Auctiva, will soon launch a website called “11 Main,” which will offer highquality products from select merchants in industries like fashion and jewelry. Though Alibaba’s revenue has surged in China on the popularity of its e-commerce platforms Taobao and T Mall, the company has had limited success abroad.

Credit: Julien Gong Min

Credit: Minale Tattersfield

NEWS ROUNDUP

Chinese PC maker Lenovo Group reported a 30% increase in fiscal third-quarter earnings to US$265.3 million due to robust demand of PCs and smartphones in China, The Wall Street Journal reported. Lenovo, which last year overtook HewlettPackard as the world’s biggest PC maker by shipment volume, said on Wednesday net profit for the three months ended December 31 rose 30% from US$204.9 million a year earlier, while revenue rose 15% to US$10.79 billion from US$9.36 billion. Lenovo’s solid quarterly results, which beat analysts’ expectations, come after the PC maker unveiled plans for two big US acquisitions.

$132 million Amount cosmetics maker Avon is putting aside as a bribery penalty estimate

Annual domestic grain production for 2020 set by the State Council

550 million tons China Economic Review | March 2014

09

Q&A : HOSPITALIT Y

Turning to the masses A state-owned hospitality group switches focus from public officials to the middle class

T

alk of Chinese state-owned enterprises usuaally centers on banks and big industrial ggroups. But Beijing aand local governments ccontrol much more tthan just factories and sshipyards; they overssee a vast portfolio of Zhou Zhi Qiang ccompanies that spread rright into the heart of the country’s middle class consumer revolution.

One of the largest is Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels, a huge group that owns some of the most popular hospitality properties in China. Zhou Zhi Qiang, vice president of Jin Jiang International Catering Investment and previously general manager of Jin Jiang Hotels, talked to China Economic Review about the evolution of the domestic catering industry and how the company is adapting to the slowdown in spending by officials and state-owned enterprises.

Zhou speaks of the “popularization” of the industry, highlighting how a company under the direction of the Communist Party is transitioning from an elite, deep-pocketed clientele to one more dominated by the masses.

The catering industry in China is changing rapidly. Can you please tell me what the major changes are in this particular industry?

The catering industry will definitely start moving towards popularization.

As the standard of living is improving for the Chinese people, they tend to choose a better dining environment.

There are two main aspects of the catering industry that operators need to concentrate on: Dining environment and supply chain safety. As long as these two aspects are under con10

China Economic Review | March 2014

trol, the catering industry will gradually improve.

The catering industry is facing a time of making improvements [to cost performance] and transitions.

Restaurants want to create a highclass dining environment for people to enjoy at a reasonable price. In general, we have to improve our cost performance [to enable this].

In the past, public [state] consumption accounted for a large part of Jin Jiang’s revenue and Jin Jiang was mostly involved in government affairs. However, Jin Jiang is now going to return back to [focus] on [wider] society in order to restructure this aspect of the hotel. Jin Jiang will let more middle class people into the hotels by opening up afternoon teas and buffets.

In the past year, luxury consumption, including restaurants and hotels, has started to slow. Corporate expenditures, particularly at state-owned companies, are also being reduced. How have Jin Jiang Group’s restaurants been affected by this?

Jin Jiang is currently going through a transformation period. It is a painful period of time since our revenue has suddenly dropped. Jin Jiang used to have more conferences and large meetings than it could organize at the end of every year. However, Jin Jiang now needs to fill the empty spaces that were used for those large meetings. This year, we are making progressive preparations to target the mass market, especially for the Chinese New Year’s eve dinner. A lot of large-sized hotels are going through the same transformation as well.

Is this transition caused by the slowdown in luxury consumption?

Definitely. As high-end hotels, we have to respond to the changing market and make some popularized

designs and products. We try to not make customers feel tense in our restaurants. Jin Jiang is opening its door to the entire market, not just highclass consumers.

Many restaurant operators complain of high staff turnover. How is your company affected by this?

Yes, there are some labor-related problems at this stage. It has become more difficult for our restaurants to recruit waitresses since Chinese teenagers are not too familiar with this industry. But employees are still happy to work in high-end restaurants. But it will become more difficult for all restaurants and hotels to recruit employees.

What can you do about these laborrelated problems?

Jin Jiang is currently working on a vital project called ‘the central factory.’ We now own several factories that do [food] deliveries because it is also difficult to recruit chefs. Thus, we deliver semi-finished products from these factories, which are also our central kitchens, to the restaurants. We also invested in a production line that produces semi-finished food products in order to deliver to our other restaurant chains. We are able to reduce labor costs and eliminate nearly 90% of the [labor-related] troubles through these factories.

Some chefs at high-end Western hotels complain that affluent Chinese consumers often order plates of expensive food but never finish it. Is this your experience?

Jin Jiang has always promoted the reduction of food waste, and we also contributed in the ‘empty plate’ action and ‘one serve per person’ activity.

But it is hard to change this Chinese habit. We are only able to allow the customers to eat separately by dishes in high-end Chinese restaurants

Q&A: HOSPITALIT Y

because it is more complicated for chefs to make them. In other restaurants of ours, we encourage the employees to communicate with the customers and remind them when they order too much.

Do you think this culture of wasting food will change in the future?

It will definitely change in the future, especially in the next generation. The post-1980s and 90s generation have adopted the cultures of ‘going Dutch’ and takeaways. They have become more westernized. However, elder customers might still feel embarrassed to pack leftover food home.

Following all these changes, how much potential do you think this industry still has?

Chinese cuisine is one of the most popular cuisines in the world. However, restaurants on the mainland have to upgrade due to the intense competition. Marketing strategy is just on the surface; what really matters are the underlying details. Factors such as food safety and brand reputation need adjustments. They still have a lot of spaces for us to explore and study. Therefore, the market for this industry is still massive. Also, since food is always a key part of the Chi-

nese culture and the living standard of Chinese is booming, the catering industry still has a lot of potential.

What do you think the trend of this industry will be like in the coming years?

Many large-sized companies are starting up franchise food chains, and it will be the most prosperous sector of the Chinese catering industry.

Western and East-Asian brands are entering the Chinese market, therefore the development of franchise restaurants will be rapid.

Due to the changing age structure of China, an increasing amount of young people tend to dine out instead of making food at home. Thus the market for catering services within the neighborhood is also growing.

It will become more difficult to establish high-end restaurants in the future. This market is going to shrink. Expensive rents, low wages and inflation are all imposing threats upon the catering industry. The sizes of restaurants will decline in city centers. The industry tends to become more professional, as there will be fewer large sized restaurants and more franchises. Restaurants will also set up more diversified services within one store.

WHO’S COOKING?: Zhou, pictured front-center, says that even high-end Chinese establishments such as Jin Jiang are finding it much more difficult to hire good service staff

Have you any plans to open hotels overseas? If so, where, and what is the driver for this overseas expansion?

We started co-branding with a French company called Hotel du Louvre. This company owns an economy hotel brand called Campanile.

Each company offered 15 hotels for co-branding. We also have entered the hotel market in the Philippines, South Korea and Indonesia. We are responding to the changing market.

China has seen a massive build up of overseas hotel brands in recent years. What is your view on all this?

Many overseas hotel brands have entered the Chinese market in recent years. However, since most of customers in the limited service market are local Chinese, therefore hotel brands such as Ibis are not as competitive as Chinese budget hotel brands.

In contrast, luxury hotels are mostly dominated by overseas customers.

Ibis is the popular foreign brand in China, however, it is developing at a slow rate due to the competitiveness of local hotel brands.

Marketplace services in the US such as Airbnb that match rooms in private homes with travelers are challenging established hotels. Do you see something similar happening in China?

There are some online businesses that are similar with Airbnb in China. In the long term, it challenges established hotels. However, Chinese people haven’t got used to marketplace services. The price of marketplace services is still higher in comparison to budget hotels. Their management systems are not as standardized as established hotels and their safety is still questionable.

These homes are usually for longterm [stays] while economy hotels are for short stays. Thus, the target markets for economy hotels and marketplace services are quite different.

These services currently don’t impact upon established hotels in China, but Jin Jiang Inn has been paying more attention to this sector.

China Economic Review | March 2014

11

Q&A: US-CHINA TRADE

Business as normal As China becomes a more mature market, US firms will need to adjust

D

espite the frequent ups and downs in tthe political relationsship between Beijing aand Washington, trade b between the world’s ttwo largest economies iis booming. Away from C Capitol Hill, officials aat the US state level are Ning Shao fforging deals to sell their ggoods to China and bring Chinese investment the other way to create jobs and power the domestic economic recovery. They also want to build lasting ties to Asia, which has emerged from the financial crisis as the most important regional driver of global economic growth.

Behind the scenes are organizations like Shanghai-based consultancy The Center of American States (CAS), which since 1996 has been building ties between China and states across the US. Ning Shao, CAS chief executive, tells China Economic Review that US firms must adjust as China becomes a “normal” market and why we have to wait to see if re-shoring becomes a sustainable trend.

The relationship between the US and China has sometimes been tense. So how has that affected the bilateral trade relationship, in your view, and do you fear any kind of disruption in commercial ties between the US and China?

Duties and other measures are disruptive. For example, there was a Chinese company in Arizona that had to close because of such problems. The public policy uncertainty in US-China trade is mutual; US investments in China are also subject to public policy changes. I think you also have a view that a lot of Chinese companies are concerned when they enter the US market. But from a local 12

China Economic Review | March 2014

view, we don’t set policy. Typically all the policies are bilateral and federal policies, so we all have to face the challenges of maximizing the opportunity for Chinese investment to the United States and mitigate some of the risk by assisting them [Chinese firms] with the understanding of how the system works, and also sometimes hopefully avoid the policy constraints of foreign investment in each other.

Many people in the business community in the US are unhappy about what they see as restrictive policies from China, in terms of export subsidies for example, or trade barriers.

What are your views on that - do you see any of that changing in the medium-to-short term?

In general, of course, we have to understand some of the changes are inevitable in terms of China becoming a normal market, because when you enjoyed the favorable policy when China opened the door and tried to attract investment, it really often put extremely favorable terms on the table just to attract foreign investment. You could presumably argue that some of the policy of course that was put on the table put Chinese companies at a disadvantage, because if the Chinese companies had to pay 30% tax, and the US firm had a 5% tax holiday.

So I think when we talk about a level field, we have to understand that the Chinese government is also being pushed on the other side by the Chinese companies, whether state-owned or private, to argue for a level field, which is called national treatment, so everybody should be treated fairly and freely, and instead of just treating international investment as a national policy.

So that’s sort of a general trend and some of the favorable incentive programs that China put in place as part of the reform are probably going to be gradually eased out, so China

will be more normal, just like the United States. So I think some of the issues you mentioned are, probably as a macro adjustment of the policy, from a longer-term perspective that is inevitable. China will have to be a normal market.

I also like to think positive. If you look at the larger picture, the positive side of the US-China relationship – trade, investment, tourism, education, all that – it far surpasses all the challenges that we have between the two. And therefore, we have to have a perspective. If you open a paper every day, of course you only see some of the trouble spots. But if you’re distracted with that then sometimes you’re not able to see the rest, because the mainstream overall relationship between the US and China has been very positive.

Several of the US states that you represent have seen huge increases in exports to China. What are the main sectors, and by how long and by how much can this growth continue?

It’s really hard sometimes to predict the future, but just look at Michigan.

Governor [Rick] Snyder has come to China every year since he was elected governor [in 2011]. That’s unprecedented, having one governor to come to one country every year. Michigan’s largest trade with China is still in the auto sector, chemicals and machinery sort of as a general category, and there are also some agricultural products, aerospace products and parts having some comfortable growth, as well as semiconductors and electronics.

With the US, I think there are three things. One is technical products and more advanced manufacturing products are still enjoying a favorable advantage in China. Agricultural products, products that are applied to natural resources and effi-

Q&A: US-CHINA TRADE

ciency, I think the US has one of the most efficient agricultural production and supply chain systems in the world. Another category would be the service industry, which typically is not on the bilateral numbers that we quote, but on the ground we’ve seen a lot of service firms that are coming to China, whether CPA, legal, design, and advisories and education.

What are your views about re-shoring, the trend of US firms moving manufacturing operations back home from China?

The global supply chain is marketdriven. It’s dictated by raw material supply, dictated by logistics, and some of course in the context of macro policy as well. The US is sort of beginning to gain its manufacturing advantage for several reasons. One is that, if you look at jobs that are coming back to the US market, they are being paid at a much lower rate than they have historically. The second

one, a lot of the jobs that are coming to the US market are driven by the need for access to cheaper energy and raw materials. Of course historically China became an attraction for investment because of the cheaper labor or relatively affordable cheaper labor. As China is becoming a much more prosperous economy the cost of production rises and that consideration is no longer as important. I think we are seeing some manufacturing coming back, and also we’ve seen some Chinese manufacturing come to the US, so that’s a good sign. But how sustainable that trend really is, I think is for the future history to tell.

You’ve worked with partners in the government, private and nonprofit sectors, so what kind of advice would you give to organizations in each of these different sectors about how to engage with China?

Really, the bottom line is that China is such a fast-changing environment

for anyone to be in, and even for myself, who’s been doing this for a long time, so you have to be really adapting to the fast-changing environment, whether you’re operating on the government-to-government level, corporate level, not-for-profit or educational exchanges, understanding the changing landscape. Some of the changing priorities in the Chinese economy are opportunities.

We were just at a meeting and talking about the change in healthcare. The reform of China will create a lot of opportunity for the US market in the overall healthcare sector.

And just understanding that trend and leveraging what are the priorities for China, [which] has a fiveyear plan and then has a longer plan, understanding what the priorities for the Chinese economy will help not only business development but also help to align your resources with that of China’s. So that’s the smartest advice.

China Economic Review | March 2014

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SHIPPING OUT: Workers at a delivery distribution center handle parcel orders, many of which were made on e-commerce platforms

Overpriced and overcrowded SOARING OPERATING AND ADVERTISING COSTS AND FIERCE COMPETITION MEAN THAT FOR CHINA’S SMALL ONLINE STORES, TAOBAO AND TMALL ARE NO LONGER THE BEST PLACES TO DO BUSINESS OR BUILD A BRAND

COVER STORY: SELLING ON TMALL

T

he hard figures don’t lie. When a company can attract 10 million unique views to its websites in a single minute, you know it’s serious about business. When it posts a transaction value of US$5.7 billion in one day, you know it’s bringing in some serious cash.

Step forward Alibaba Group. The company’s Tmall and Taobao e-commerce platforms recorded an 83% year-on-year surge in transaction volume last November 11, the date of China’s annual “Single’s Day” online shopping extravaganza, coming off the back of a 260% surge a year earlier. The volume of business on these sites – Tmall does mainly business-to-customer transactions while Taobao is largely business-to-business – is often described by industry watchers as “over the top” or “insane.”

Behind the mind-numbing figures is the myriad of shops and vendors doing business. The number of stores on the two platforms has grown from just over six million in late 2011 to more than nine million in October of last year. This huge number of vendors vying for customers has driven skyward the cost of advertising, while also producing a high degree of clutter from which the small players – which constitute the majority of the market – struggle to break free.

In the melee for shoppers, small Chinese brands are likely the biggest losers. While being increasingly priced out of ads, small retailers are often lost at sea among the multitude of similar shops on the mega sites and have few tools to build strong, enduring presences, experts and industry players told China Economic Review. But while many will look for a way off of the Alibaba platforms, for now they have few places to run to.

China Economic Review | March 2014

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COVER STORY: SELLING ON TMALL

popping up on the screen, there’s just too much going on,” Xin said.

But there’s more to it than just the refined image. Managing customer data can be another problem on the mega sites. Xin said brands operating on Tmall might find it “difficult to know who your customers even are.”

That’s because Alibaba gives shop owners very little access to data concerning their businesses, says Patrick Deloy, executive director at e-commerce consultancy Bluecom. Brands starting up on Tmall or Taobao will find it difficult to know who has been viewing their pages. Keeping track of and contacting past customers can also be challenging.

In some cases, instead of online analytics furthering a brand’s understanding of the market, the data is used by Alibaba itself for its own marketing and statistical purposes, Deloy said. There have even been cases where data have been sold from

one merchant to another, he noted.

Although a brand may see high sales volumes at certain times of the year, it isn’t necessarily forging lasting business.

“If you’re a brand and you open a Tmall shop, you’re not going to build anything. You are actually killing your brand,” said Cyril Drouin, chief executive at Bysoft, a consulting firm that advises brands that want to market online in China.

“But you have to be there, because in terms of sale volume it’s absolutely amazing.”

‘Nothing to say’ That’s the question brands on Taobao and Tmall are mulling now: Is the sales volume strong enough to justify the cost of staying there?

The price of online advertising in China during the past three years has climbed sharply. The increase is hard to quantify given the various forms of advertising that exist. In

OUR SECRET: Alibaba’s internet commerce platforms capture vast volumes of user data that they do not share easily with store owners

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China Economic Review | March 2014

Credit: Alibaba

Branding hurts “They have hundreds of thousands of brands on the sites. As a small brand, it’s hard to get seen there with all that competition,” says Jillian Xin, the owner of online designer-clothing platform Xinlelu.com.

Xin founded the site in 2012.

Named after a street in Shanghai known for its small fashion boutiques, it serves as a platform for designer-clothing brands looking to market their goods on the mainland.

For the some 50 global and Chinese brands on the site every season, managing the customer’s shopping experience has become critical to branding. Xin said the platform tries to evoke a “boutique shopping experience” online, something that simply isn’t possible on Tmall right now.

“When someone’s looking at a minimalist-style dress and you have advertisements for Wangwang [software for the Alibaba platforms]

COVER STORY: SELLING ON TMALL

2012, online advertising revenues grew by more than 46%, hitting a value of US$12.3 billion, according to a report from Beijing-based iResearch. Some shop owners on Tmall say prices for certain kinds of advertising have more than doubled since 2012.

“There’s been a huge change in the past two years,” Zou Yini, the owner of a Taobao store that sells makeup, said of the cost of advertising. Zou isn’t building a brand; she markets popular makeup products on her business-to-business site. But the difficulty of some brands to stay afloat is evident to her.

In the short life of Taobao, Zou is an old hand. When she opened her store three years ago there were so few competitors that she says she didn’t need to buy advertising. A year later, she had been crowded out as thousands of small stores began selling similar products. So she paid for an advertising campaign that distributed information over Sina Weibo, China’s version of twitter.

At that time, she paid between US$160 and US$320 for a simple Weibo package. Today, the same plan costs more than US$800, although the increasing popularity of the mirco-blogging service means that it now reaches far more people than it did when Zou started using it.

Zou said the ultra-high sales volume during shopping holidays such as Single’s Day has buoyed the rate of return on her investment. After three years, her shop is well established. She’s less optimistic for new entrants into the market, though.

The increasingly high costs coupled with superfluous vendors all selling similar items make Taobao a jungle for fledgling shops.

“The cost of acquiring new clients [online] in China is getting higher and higher every year. So they have less and less return on investment online,” Drouin said. On top of pricy ad rates, several fees come along with opening on an Alibaba platform. At Tmall, vendors pay deposits, setup fees, yearly fees and transaction fees.

Call them what you will, but e-commerce sites will lead online innovation in China China’s mega online shopping platforms might not be the best venue for emerging brands to set up shop.

But Alibaba, along with peers such as Dangdang and Jingdong, are masters of innovation. While China’s online shopping universe may seem crowded at present, it is, in the grand scheme of things, in its infancy. The companies, and the e-commerce industry in general, will likely bring forward some of China’s most innovative products in the years to come.

In fact, they already are.

Alibaba founder Jack Ma is leading the way in e-innovation. So much so that he has central bankers concerned. Last year, Alibaba launched Yu ’E Bao, an online fund that promises better returns than bank deposits. The fund had 49 million customers and US$40 billion in investments as of mid-January, giving traditional lenders a run for their money.

Jingdong Mall, a competitor to Taobao and Tmall although much smaller, is conducting financial experiments of its own. In February, the company said it was trying a credit system it calls “Baitiao.” Baitiao will function like a credit card, giving customers limited lines of credit although they will be restricted to shopping on Jingdong’s e-commerce universe. Credit cards have not caught on in China mainly because the interest rates they offer are heavily regulated by the state. Jingdong may have a breakthrough on its hands with Baitiao.

Innovation in China’s social media is pulling along e-commerce as well.

Ad space on websites is expensive but pushing along a brand’s name on Sina Weibo, China’s version of Twit-

Other major internet companies, such as Dangdang and Jingdong, have launched their own platforms for online businesses but Alibaba remains far and away king of the industry. “Now they [brands] have

ter, is cheap and direct. Vendors and brands that remain on the mega-mall sites will increasing opt to access clients through this channel.

Social media may even help change the face of China’s largest e-markets. Meilishuo is one attempt to personalize shopping on sites that have become largely impersonal.

Translating roughly as “beauty talk,” Meilishuo functions much like the US’s Pinterest, where shoppers can post their favorite brands and products, although the site is explicitly “female only.” Last year, the founder claimed the social media platform had 32 million users, 80,000 of whom used the site frequently.

one player and they are completely dependent on that player,” noted Drouin. “If Tmall decided to suddenly raise fees, the brands would have nothing to say. They would just have to say ‘yes.’”

China Economic Review | March 2014

17

ECONOMICS & POLICY: URBANIZATION

ANYBODY HOME?: Ordos in Inner Mongolia witnessed an unprecedented construction frenzy but most of its homes remain empty

Reclaiming the ghost towns Once the poster boy for China's empty cities, officials in Ordos have adopted a new approach to bring the masses to come and settle

O

n the surface, things in China’s favorite ghost town, Ordos, seem to have gone from bad to worse. According to Chinese media reports, a few companies in the city are trading goods such as wool and grain oil for people’s real estate or cars. The government has extended loans to so-called “replacement” companies that use the credit to buy up commodities.

They then trade those commodities for real estate or any other goods bought on credit. The hope is to bring liquidity back to the property sector.

For several years, the Inner Mongolian city’s Dongsheng district 18

China Economic Review | March 2014

has been the poster child for urban planning and resource allocation gone wrong. News organizations the world over have sent reporters to walk among the endless rows of empty apartment blocks or stroll down the barren boulevards in search of signs of life or commerce – to find very little.

Ordos had one of China’s hottest real estate markets just three years ago. Developers built as if the masses were waiting on the edge of the Gobi desert, ready to pour into the empty flats and store fronts. Real estate speculators believed wholeheartedly that they would trade the cement and rebar for gold.

In 2010, property developers were building more than 10 million square feet of real estate, almost two-thirds of the floor space being developed in Beijing during the same year. Since then, investment into real estate has collapsed along with the city government’s income.

The masses didn’t come to Ordos, and the speculators need out of their empty housing blocks. At this point, trading flats for flaxseed oil might sound like a bargain.

The replacement companies might be another quirk on Ordos’s long list of oddities. But the massive build-outs of real estate are not unique to the Mongolian steppe.

ECONOMICS & POLICY: URBANIZATION

Many cities across China are still adding amazing amounts of floor space, and with better planning, those places aren’t set to fall into the same ghost-town trap as Ordos.

Take Guiyang, the capital of Guizhou province, for example. Barclays Research recently visited the city and had some interesting notes on real estate developments in one the country’s poorest regions.

Between 2010 and 2016, the city will have 150 million square meters of property floor space under construction, according to the report.

That’s enough space to house 3 million people in a city that only has a population of 4 million today. No more than a third of the people that will buy those houses currently live in Guiyang. Up to 60% of the flats will be filled by people from nearby counties.

Guizhou is one of China’s poorest provinces. Per capita GDP there was just US$3,000 in 2012 versus

US$8,500 the same year in Guangdong province to the southeast. The demand generated by urbanization is a force that will literally remake the provincial capital as the population nearly doubles in a span of six years. Migrants will settle into modern homes, take up modern jobs and earn modern wages (by China’s standards).

Barclays wasn’t in Guiyang to verify the success of the city’s urbanization process. The team was there inspecting the industries that are set to profit from such massive real estate projects, such as the manufacturers of tires for big trucks. The city’s market may show some signs of a bubble, but with mainly poor migrants filling the new buildings, it also demonstrates effective urbanization planning, namely turning farmers into urban consumers.

The apartment blocks in Ordos won’t stay empty forever. People will eventually fill those flats – and

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likely pay far more reasonable prices for them than they would have three years ago. But for the process to work smoothly, the government can’t rely on the “build-it-andthey-will-come� model. Much more important will be to give the people a reason to relocate to the edge of the desert.

Ordos is trying that now – albeit not in time to save the speculators that originally rushed into the market. Fresh graduates who move to the city to set up businesses can receive free office space, utilities and internet connections. Instead of posh apartments, the city is building trade schools it hopes will usher in a new generation of entrepreneurs to the region.

Balanced planning should help Ordos officials run the ghosts out of town before the international media can post too many more stories and photo galleries depicting its lonely streets.

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China Economic Review | March 2014

19

ECONOMICS & POLICY: QE3 TAPERING

RUNNING SCARED: Washington’s decision to scale back its asset-purchasing program has predictably led to an outflow of capital from emerging markets

Avoiding the tapering tide Although China is strong enough to fend of the rout hitting emerging markets, it must continue to reform to stay in strong shape againist future pressures

E

merging markets rose to prominence in the mainstream conscience lumped all together. Individually, they were less attractive and often considered too risky.

That was helpful in raising their profile in global financial centers.

Such association is now looking like less of a good thing as serious economic turmoil in some developing nations has, in the eyes of investors, tarnished all of them with the same brush. Questions are now even being asked of China, the long-time poster boy for this group.

In December the US Federal Reserve started scaling back, or taper-

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China Economic Review | March 2014

ing, its long running quantitative easing program. Since then asset purchases have been trimmed to US$65 billion a month from US$85 billion, triggering widespread capital flight globally. The results have not been kind to places like Indonesia and Turkey and have amplified the uncertainty over emerging markets that first appeared last summer when talk of tapering turned serious.

Until now, China has looked largely stable. Many of the fundamental issues causing pain elsewhere such as current account deficits and small supplies of foreign currency do not trouble Beijing. “The over-

all effect [of tapering] on China will probably be limited, as China has a current account surplus and the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves,” Ivy Pan, a Hong Kongbased analyst with ABN Ambro, wrote in a research note.

But an increasingly anxious market is starting to ask deeper questions about the health of China. Some investors see the risks posed by tapering to exports and the local financial market as a trigger that could throw the whole economy off kilter.

Exports re-routed Chinese exports to developing mar-

ECONOMICS & POLICY: QE3 TAPERING

Money flows Of potentially greater concern is financial stability in China as this is where risk has piled up. Tapering could inflict serious damage if it prompts a severe outflow of capital.

China faces the prospect of volatility from global capital movement.

Investors might prefer to move their money to the US, where interest rates are expected to start rising, while the gradual economic recovery there makes it an attractive destination

overall, noted Cao. China recorded net capital outflows in 2012 after being a net recipient in the preceding three years.

Top officials in Beijing are cautious, asking Washington to consider the global implications of changes to its monetary actions. “We call on the US to work as a responsible major country and to be responsible for the spillover effect of its policy,” Zhu Guangyao, vice minister of finance, said in late December after a meeting with US officials.

Pressure is likely to mount in the short term and could seriously disrupt the business environment. Domestic monetary conditions are tight and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) appears determined to keep a rein on things. January saw record credit expansion to which the central bank responded by unexpectedly draining liquidity from the market. Capital outflows will only add to the difficulties companies face in accessing vital financing.

Still, the broader impact of capital flows is unlikely to have anywhere near the damaging impact currently being felt in places like Jakarta. Crucially, China does not depend on short-term borrowing from overseas

to pay for what it spends, and has the means to deal with problems.

“The experience of the tapering scare back in middle part of this year [2013] suggests that the most vulnerable economies are those with sustained current account deficits and those that rely heavily on foreign capital inflows to fund domestic growth,” JP Morgan chief China economist Zhu Haibin wrote in a note in January. “From this perspective, China is indeed in a solid external position, which is why China was little affected by the previous tapering scare.”

Senior officials also have the ability to loosen domestic liquidity through their own means. One of these is scaling back the amount of money banks need to hold in reserve to inject more cash into the real economy.

This is an oft-deployed monetary tool by the central bank. Strict capital account controls meanwhile prevent the rapid movement of money over borders.

If anything, top foreign exchange officials are bracing themselves for capital inflows this year. That would add to the massive US$138.8 billion current account and US$199.2 billion capital and financial account surpluses recorded in the first nine months

PLAYING SAFE: China could see some foreign capital flow back to the US as the economic revoery there gathers momentum and investors seek safer assets

China Economic Review | March 2014

Credit: Perpetual tourist

kets have boomed in recent years. As those places grew richer their emerging middle classes sought a greater variety of consumer goods. Those regions now account for about 50% of the world economy and helped offset weak demand from rich nations in the years immediately following the financial crisis.

Giant container ships departing China for exotic destinations might soon be carrying much lighter cargoes. Since the beginning of December, Argentina’s peso has fallen by about 20% versus the dollar while the Turkish lira is down around 8%, making imported goods much pricier.

Interest-rate hikes by central banks in Ankara and Brasilia designed to stop foreign capital from fleeing will hurt the credit-driven consumer boom in those countries.

Dockers in Los Angeles and Portland on the other hand can expect more work unloading vessels from Shanghai and Guangzhou. The Fed is tapering because American unemployment is falling below 7%, which indicates growth in economic activity.

Stronger consumption in key developed markets will offset a slowdown in Chinese exports elsewhere; roughly 20% of goods shipped from China are destined for the US compared to the 15% bound for emerging markets.

US consumers might soon be able to get more for their buck. “QE tapering could make the US dollar stronger, which would strengthen its purchasing power and import demand,” Cao Yongfu, an assistant research fellow at the China Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in an opinion piece.

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E CO N O M I C S & P O L I C Y: T R A D E D ATA

Wealth of the nation “China’s economic fundamentals are much healthier than most other EMs and China is one of the least vulnerable EM economies to US tapering in 2014,” Ma Jun, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, concluded in a recent note.

Nevertheless, the country does face some risks from tapering and needs to be alert to the problems that can arise.

China is the world’s largest holder of US Treasury debt. It has been buying the paper to keep its currency weak and fuel global consumption of the goods it exports. But its holdings are now so vast that any decline in their value would be painful. This threat now looms as US interest rates are expected to pick up from the lows they have been at since 2009. In response, last December China conducted the biggest sale of such assets in nearly four years.

Advocates of liberal economic reforms see tapering as an opportunity for China to get its house in order. They argue that emerging markets will see slower growth in the coming years while rich nations will take time to get back to full strength.

Therefore, China needs to drive more growth internally and further secure itself against the possibility of external shocks.

“The end of monetary easing in the US will bring unprecedented financial risks to a China already facing slowing growth. China has no choice but to reform its economy,” Hu Shuli, editor of the influential business magazine Century Weekly, wrote in an editorial.

Beijing is already moving in that direction, and needs to stick with it.

“China is implementing the most aggressive structural reforms in decades, while this determination is not seen in most other EMs due to political stalemate,” noted Ma. “China’s new reform program, especially deregulation, would enhance the country’s growth potential and reduced macro risks.”

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China Economic Review | March 2014

Not again Questions about the reliability of Chinese trade data are back. This time though the numbers could be real

W

idespread caution over Chinese economic data means that when numbers provide a positive surprise, loud grumbles from hardened skeptics run through the airwaves. January trade data would have had calmer observers toning the volume down.

Exports from China surged 10.1% from a year earlier despite overall predictions of at best flat growth or even a decline. Separate surveys of economists by Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal had median export growth predictions of 0.1%. A Reuters’ poll put forward 2%.

Not long after China customs released the data on February 12, speculation was rife that the numbers were indeed questionable, possibly hinting at a recurrence of the over-invoicing that grossly distorted the same set of data a year earlier. At

that time, Chinese companies were caught inflating the value of exports to bypass currency controls and bring yuan into China.

Although that theory cannot be discounted completely – there is some evidence to support suspicions – the rosier take on the data is that demand for Chinese goods is coming back from developed markets. That is good for those who want China to hit the magic 7.5% GDP growth target this year and a welcome boost to the global economy overall.

Analysts' immediate reactions to the data were dominated by those two ideas.

Invoice trickery by traders last year led to a reported 25% rise in imports from the year prior, meaning the base figures for this January were extremely high. Also, the seven-day national Lunar New Year holiday started

BACK IN BUSINESS: Chinese exports to the US, EU and Japan surged 15.1% year-on-year in January in what could be a welcome sign that demand is returning in rich nations just as emerging markets falter

Credit: Marc oh!

of 2013, bolstering China’s ability to withstand any stampede by investors to the departure lounge.

E CO N O M I C S & P O L I C Y: T R A D E D ATA

January 31 this year versus February 9 in 2013, resulting in factory closures at least a week before the end of the month. Weak manufacturing and service industry surveys reinforced the view that the economy was slowing.

So what exactly was behind the surprisingly high exports reported for January?

Knowing that Lunar New Year fell across months and mindful of not having a full set of staff when production restarted after the break, factory owners likely brought some business forward. “The earlier timing of China’s Lunar New Year in 2014 means that more shipments were probably front-loaded to January than in 2013, likely at February’s expense,” UBS economist Wang Tao wrote in a note. That alone however can’t account for the surge in shipments.

The answer could lie with fake orders. “We are left with a nagging feeling that perhaps issues such as over-invoicing have risen sharply in intensity early this year,” Louis Kuijs, senior China economist with RBS in Hong Kong, said in a note in reaction to the data.

In a practise known as round-tripping, a company in mainland China exports goods to a subsidiary in Hong Kong and then ships those same goods back to China, arbitraging on either exchange rates or interest rates.

“The round-tripping trade between Hong Kong and China [has] picked up again since Q4 2013, reflecting the incentives to take advantage of the onshore high interest rates and

OFFLOAD: Workers in US ports such as Los Angeles (pictured) are handling more goods from China

RMB appreciation opportunities,” analysts at ANZ Bank in Hong Kong said in a note.

But other data that would confirm the view that such practices were the dominant force behind the surge in trade numbers are inconclusive, or absent. One way of reading for overinvoicing is to check China export data against import data from other territories such as Hong Kong, particularly high-tech goods which are preferred because they are valuable and easy to ship.

Yet mainland exports to the city actually fell 18.3% year-on-year in January, while shipments of advanced goods were also down. “We conclude that there are no clear signs of hot money inflows from the January trade data,” said Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analysts.

What this points to, according to several analysts, is that there could be genuinely higher demand for Chinese goods. “Growth of exports to developed countries – not likely to be associated with over-invoicing – rose substantially in January. Thus, while we remain puzzled by the strength of the export data, they seem to point to actual strength,” noted Kuijs from RBS. That demand came overwhelmingly from developed markets. Export

Credit: John Murphy

“For a more accurate assesment of China’s export conditions, both January and February data should be reviewed together.”

- Wang Tao, UBS chief China economist in Hong Kong

growth to the United States, European Union and Japan (G3) accelerated to 15.1% year-on-year in January from 3.7% in December, the highest rate since August 2011, according to a note by HSBC Research.

“We saw shipments to G3 and non-G3 markets rebounded simultaneously in January, but it was demand from G3 market that made the stronger comeback thanks to the improving economic situation in developed economies,” wrote HSBC analysts. With emerging markets under pressure from the flight of global capital outflows following a scaling back of quantitative easing in the US, a pickup in orders from China’s much bigger developed markets is a welcome boost.

For now, the outlook on 2014 exports remains cautious. Hong Kong import data for January is expected to give a clearer picture of the strength of over-invoicing. Economists are unsure of what this means for the health of Chinese exports.

“The surprising strength of January’s trade data likely overstates the true health of the Mainland exporting sector,” said Wang at UBS. “As such, for a more accurate assessment of China’s export conditions, both January and February data should be reviewed together.”

China Economic Review | March 2014

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FEELING FULL: Long-held concerns that China won’t be able to feed its people as it loses more arable land to urbanization may ease as it becomes clearer that the surge in food consumption spurred by economic developments is starting to level out

Healthier serving A major change to agricultural policy underscores that top leaders acknowledge the desire of their people to eat better quality food

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or years Beijing stressed that the country’s farmers must grow enough grain to feed the masses. Measures enacted in 1996 called on China to produce 95% of its own grain. That policy reflected concerns rooted deeply in centuries of food instability and intermittent famine in China’s long history.

The official outlook on how much grain the country must produce at home is changing, however. The State Council called for China to stabilize annual grain production at 550 million tons by 2020, far lower than the 602 million tons produced last year. The government will now turn its focus to the quality and safety of the domestic harvest.

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China Economic Review | March 2014

But that doesn’t mean China has completely abandoned grain self-sufficiency. Agricultural policymakers are simply getting with the times.

Local media reported at the end of 2012 that Chinese self-sufficiency levels for rice, wheat, corn and soybeans had fallen below 90%. Yet that figure was hotly contested by Chen Xiwen, director of China’s Rural Development Institute. When soybeans are tossed out of the equation, Chen claimed, the country had maintained its sacred 95% self-sufficiency rate. Soybeans are not counted as an edible grain.

China has the capacity to continue producing enough edible grain, namely rice and wheat, to feed the

country through 2020, Jane Peng, a Shanghai-based grain and seed oil analyst at Rabobank International, told China Economic Review.

Imports of corn and soybean, which are consumed by humans but mainly find use as animal feed, will increase as China continues to eat more meat.

Yet, the way Chinese people consume grain and meat is set to change in the coming years.

“The 95%-and-above self-sufficiency rate was posited in the 1990s.

Under new circumstances, the connotation of grain security is different from 10 to 20 years ago,” Cheng Guoqiang, secretary general of the State Council Development Research Center’s Academic Committee, was

Credit: Steven Gitter

E CO N O M I C S & P O L I C Y: F O O D I M P O R TS

E CO N O M I C S & P O L I C Y: F O O D I M P O R TS

Credit: Peter Pearson

quoted by state media as commenting on the often-fierce debate over the amount of grain that China must produce at home.

That’s true. As a country gets richer, its consumption pattern changes.

During the 1980s and 90s, when the country was still knee-deep in poverty -reduction efforts, a strong correlation existed between rising incomes and rising food – especially meat – consumption. However, as China continues to push most of its people further away from the breadline, its appetite for food will not necessarily rise in tandem.

“It’s a curve. There’s a ceiling for this consumption,” Peng said. “The higher the income does not indicate the more grain and meat we are going to eat.”

“The connotation of grain security [today] is different from 10 to 20 years ago.” - Cheng Guoqiang, secretary general of a State Council academic research committee Around 2020, China’s average per capita income will hit US$10,000, Peng said, a mark that in other northeast Asian countries such as South Korea signified a change in the way people spent their money.

DIRTY CROPS: Above-average use of fertilizers on Chinese farms puts domestic crop yields at risk

At that point in development, people begin emphasizing the quality of food over the quantity.

Setting the 2020 grain production target at 550 million tons and turning attention to the quality of food might be a sign that China’s agricultural sector, policy-wise one of its most conservative, is changing its hardline attitude. “I think that’s a very reasonable figure [for grain production] for 2020. The Chinese government has a good forecast for the future,” Peng said.

But producing rice safe enough for the Chinese people to eat in the next decade won’t be easy. Soil pollution has become a major challenge to the government’s self-sufficiency goals.

“In many places this kind of pollution has already affected the ground water and the crop yield,” said Fu Zhenzhen, a grain analyst at Beijing Shennong Kexin Agribusiness Consulting in Beijing. “This problem has already become very serious.”

China has about 20% of the world’s arable land but accounts for 30% of global fertilizer use, or about 50 million tons in 2007, according to a report from Sustainalytics, a Singapore-based consultancy. Only 25-35% of the chemicals in the fertilizers can be absorbed by crops while the rest remains in the soil or flows into rivers. Last May, inspectors discovered rice with a high level of cancer-causing cadmium in markets in the southern city of Guangzhou. The rice had been grown in a heavily polluted area in Hunan province and the incident underscored just how real are the daily concerns Chinese people have over the food they eat.

China may have the capacity to feed its people with home-grown grains. The question is whether Chinese will allow it in their bowls.

Despite being the world’s biggest rice producer, China also became the world’s No. 1 rice importer in 2013, buying 3.4 million tons of the grain.

Those imports in part show that China’s appetite for quality – in this case potentially safer rice – is indeed growing. It’s encouraging that the government has recognized that quantity isn’t everything.

China Economic Review | March 2014

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BUSINESS: PROPERT Y BUBBLES

The cracks widen Metropolitan house prices remain stable as lower-tier cities see more declines

F

eng shui masters are telling fund managers to invest cautiously during the Year of the Horse, China’s traditional lunar year that started on January 31. A famous Hong Kong fortune teller reportedly said 2014, in the ancient 60-year zodiac cycle, represents “instability and disruption.”

The projection doesn’t do much good for the speculators that have already poured their money into China’s real estate sector. Prices in first-tier cities, namely in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, will likely continue to grow moderately this year. However, for the investors that went big on property buys in China’s smaller cities, 2014 is set to be disappointing.

Big cities will stabilize, “but to most inland cities, the second- or third-tier cities, I don’t think it’s a good year,” Shao Yu, executive direc-

tor and chief economist at Orient Securities, said last month during a talk with journalists in Shanghai.

“Because [developers] already provide a huge supply, so the price I don’t think has any chance to go up. They can simply go down.”

Last year was a wild ride for the mainland real estate market. Prices coming off of a low base topped 20% year-on-year growth in some of the biggest cities. Transaction volumes rose to record levels.

Yet amid the dizzying highs in cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, month-on-month price growth in many smaller cities across China began to slow starting in the second quarter. By December, prices were falling month-on-month in two cities and had leveled out in three. More could join that downward trajectory in January and February.

Prices in Wenzhou, a major man-

IT’S HAPPENING: Property prices are starting to decline in more and more smaller cities, threatening speculative investors, while the likes of Shanghai are seeing continued growth

26

China Economic Review | March 2014

ufacturing hub in coastal Zhejiang province, have fallen for 29 consecutive months, largely the result of strict housing controls imposed in 2010 on the rapidly expanding market. The news has only grown bleaker for the speculators that rushed into Wenzhou in 2009. According to one report, transaction volumes have dropped 50-60% since then. Apartments that sold for up to US$8,244 per square meter during the boom days now go for US$3,793, a more than 50% decline.

The speculative investors in Shaoguan, a southern city, are no doubt looking at the Wenzhou case with trepidation. In December, that city became the second to join Wenzhou in the month-on-month decline. Three prefecture-level cities, Zhanjiang, Bengbu and Yueyang, are teetering on the edge.

A severe drop in prices in smaller cities is unlikely. Yet, without stronger demand in small cities that have experienced extensive buildouts in housing supply, prices should decrease.

“I don’t think it’s going to be a property-price collapse, like a 20-30% drop, but if there’s not a more concrete plan for urbanization into those smaller cities, there could be pressure on prices,” said Frank Miao, a senior equity analyst at Hong Kong investment bank China Galaxy International.

The government has been trying to divert migrants into China’s smaller cities instead of just its mega conurbations of the likes of Shanghai. Still, the State Council has yet to deliver a “master plan” for urbanization that will lead this type of growth for the next decade. Perhaps Li Kashing read up on his feng shui last year. In October, the Hong Kong Tycoon pulled out of many of his Beijing real estate investments, sending ripples through the market.

Credit: Eli Duke

BUSINESS: ARCTIC MINING

EASIER ACCESS: A new law will allow Chinese workers to start digging mines in Greenland while melting snow will open up more resources to be tapped

Frozen frontier Chinese companies are waiting to send capital, construction equipment and workers to develop Greeland’s natural resources. But a strict regulatory framework awaits them

P

icture Greenland through the eyes of a Chinese mineral baron or the boss of a state-owned construction giant. The quasi nation, which is slowly becoming independent from Denmark, possesses some of the largest reserves of gold, iron, copper and zinc in the world. After China, Greenland has the biggest deposits of rare earths – materials essential to tech devices such as smartphones. Its uranium resources, should they be mined, could put the arctic country among the top exporters of the elements.

All of this is becoming available in a space of land the size of Germany, as climate change melts and opens up access. The country also has oil,

an estimated 32 billion barrels worth, which could put it among major producing nations such as Nigeria and Kazakhstan, although the reserves have not been commercially proven yet. More than half of the island has yet to be explored.

What Greenland doesn’t have is roads, or many port – or really any of the infrastructure or human resources needed to get at this buried treasure.

Chinese mining outfits, construction companies and state banks no doubt envisage Chinese miners hauling their spoils down Chinese-leveled and -financed roads to a port that China built and paid for specifically to access the minerals.

“With a population of 56,000, our

biggest challenge is that we have no infrastructure,” Kai Holst Andersen, Greenland’s deputy foreign minister, said at an address last week at Shanghai’s Polar Research Institute. “Can you imagine, on the world’s largest island, there is no road between two cities. There are no ports in the places where the mines need to be. There are no people in many of the places where mines need to be constructed.”

A hugely significant new bill means that’s about to change, and Greenland seems highly welcoming of China’s hand in developing its natural resources.

This year, Greenland will open its doors to foreign labor and could, in a single gulp, boost its total populaChina Economic Review | March 2014

27

tion by more than 5% with foreign workers, most of whom would be Chinese. Last fall, Greenland’s parliament, the Inatsisartut, passed the Large-Scale Projects Act, a controversial measure that gives foreign workers stronger rights. The act isn’t final yet. The Danish parliament, which still controls Greenland’s immigration policy, must first approve it, “but that’s a minor part of it,” to put it in Andersen’s words.

Once enacted, some 3,000 Chinese workers from Sichuan Xinye Mining Investment Company could be flown over to operate a major ironore mine, known as the Isua project, located about 150 kilometers from the capital Nuuk.

At the same parliamentary session that passed the large projects act, the Greenlandic government awarded London Mining a 30-year license to build and operate the mine. As the technical advisor, London Mining plans to hire Sichuan Xinye to do the digging.

There’s a caveat though – one that the Chinese mining barons might want to pay attention to. Greenland may not have roads or the people it needs to open huge mining pits. But the country does have laws, and strict ones at that. As part of the Kingdom of Denmark for more than three centuries, the country has developed strong institutions and legal framework.

“We are, in mining terms, a frontier country. But we are not a frontier country like frontier countries in Africa or South America. We are something very different – perhaps unique,” Andersen said. “We have evolved over 300 years a solid legal framework, a well-educated population, rules, democratic institutions and a strong society.”

When it comes to environmental regulation, Andersen claims that the country has some of the tightest regulations in the world. Greenlanders live much as their ancestors did: Highly dependent on local resources such as fish.

Yet, with climatic zones moving north by about two kilometers per year, the country’s northernmost zone 28

China Economic Review | March 2014

GOING NOWHERE: A basic road leads to the Kangerlussuaq settlement in western Greenland. Before any serious mining can start new roads and ports will be needed to move people and equipment

will disappear within 10 years, delivering a major blow to indigenous lifestyles. Tight environmental laws aim to protect what they can of the people’s way of life.

The Large-Scale Projects Act, while allowing foreign workers to come into the country, is also designed to protect Greenland from bad practices and step up the level of monitoring done on projects during the construction phase.

Tough mining regulations will put Chinese companies out of their element. Chinese state-run firms are active in frontier and emerging markets across the globe but their success often relies on corrupt governments and a lack of enforcement of environmental and related regulations.

In countries such as Cambodia, where several state-owned Chinese firms are building everything from hydropower dams and roads to bridges and ports, civil society groups have protested the negative effects the

projects have had on local people and the environment.

These often-poor governments rebuke such complaints, saying that without China’s cheap labor, technical skills and its willingness to finance the projects on long-term, low-interest loans, development would not be possible.

At present, only one exploration project in Greenland has been awarded to China. A Chinese company is exploring copper resources on the island’s east coast. Since 2002, when Greenland opened bidding on oil projects, China has participated but not won.

But the message from the Greenlandic government seems clear: China’s hunger for resources will compliment well a nation looking for cheap roads and ports.

As Andersen put it, “We particularly welcome investments from China because we can see that you can do a lot of what we need.”

Credit: Hollandisk

BUSINESS: ARCTIC MINING

BUSINESS: CHINESE TOURISTS

Study abroad They go overseas for the shops, but can Chinese tourists also learn a few new things?

Credit: Zoetnet

V

isitors from China are certainly making waves around the world. Much of the attention has focused on their wallets, and what it means for shops, hotels and airlines everywhere.

From that perspective, the prospect that the number of outbound Chinese could more than double by 2020 is mouthwatering. But it also has implications that potentially reverberate much further. In less than a decade, Chinese might have adopted new and significant views of their Asian neighbors, protecting the environment and how they behave in public at home.

According to CLSA, a brokerage, 200 million Chinese could be jumping on flights by 2020, up from around 80 million in 2012 and far higher than the 100 million seen by the UN World Tourism Organisation in what until recently has been considered the benchmark estimate.

This sudden acceleration in tourist numbers is being spurred by, among other things, rising wages, more holiday leave, relaxed visa restrictions and overcrowding in the domestic holiday market, CLSA said in a report issued.

Far fewer Chinese as a share of the population currently go abroad than in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, their main peer group.

Their travel spending is forecast to more than triple to around US$4.13 billion (RMB 25 billion) by 2020.

This has huge implications for global retail, starting with the most popular pursuits of gambling and shopping but increasingly moving into things like health tourism.

Chinese who have been overseas two or three times are becoming more sophisticated and realizing that travel is less about shopping and more about observing. Like their Japanese counterparts who started visiting the world for the first time en masse in

the 1980s, they have hit this learning curve head on. First, they came in packs, charging into shopping malls and crowding out scenic spots. Now, slowly, they are taking the time to look around closely.

“These tourists are less likely to travel in big groups and may not be on the ‘shopping-frenzy’ that firsttime tourists tend to display,” Renee Hartmann, an expert in Chinese consumer trends, noted in an article for industry portal Jing Daily last year.

One of the most valued aspects of tourism for Westerners is the sense of relaxation that typically occurs on holiday. This can lead to more productive workers and happier, enlightened citizens. China could do with a bit of both as it continues to undergo seismic social changes.

The Chinese government, under a strategic tourism plan launched in 2013, is encouraging more locals to take holidays by reinforcing existing regulations covering paid leave. The stated aim is to boost consumption at home, but it could also allow more Chinese to develop a sense of personal adventure and plan vacations for themselves and avoid the huge crowds that amass during public holidays – the only travel period for much

of the population.

Last year, the government issued a much publicized guidebook telling tourists from China how to behave when overseas. Respect for their surroundings could be one of the first changes. “Given that there are some issues in China in terms of pollution… we think that experiencing the nice environment when people travel overseas will change peoples’ habits when they return home,” Aaron Fischer, lead consumer analyst at CLSA, said at a media briefing in Hong Kong.

There is even scope for improved diplomatic ties in this part of the world, which is at its most sensitive for some time. China is in heated disputes with Japan, South Korea and several Southeast Asian states about maritime borders.

Many Chinese are hostile to their neighbors, often through lack of understanding or interaction. As more visit these countries, they might start to drop their aggressive perceptions, which would undermine public support for the aggressive stance Beijing has adopted on the issues. The Communist Party, despite its total grip on political power, is sensitive to public sentiment.

How likely is any of the above?

The prospects are not too far-fetched.

Experiences in countries like Japan and the United States show that tourism, eventually, can lead to a better understanding of the world. Nevertheless, this can only start to happen when tourists gaze outside of the shop window and observe daily life in the places they are visiting.

That probably won’t happen in a big way for some time. As Fischer noted, “So they [Chinese tourists] might say that they go overseas to experience different cultures, [but] when it comes down to it, it’s really all about shopping.”

China Economic Review | March 2014

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M A R K E TS & F I N A N C E : I N T E R E S T R AT E S

GIVE ME MORE: Chinese fed up with the paltry returns they get on bank deposits are putting their money in risky wealth products that are proving to be a major financial risk, forcing regulators to consider speeding up interest late liberalization

Upward pressure Retail investors are leading grassroots financial reform to the detriment of the PBOC

G

rassroots movements bring to mind angry petitioners on the streets or the little man fighting against the big, ugly institution.

It doesn’t conjure images of investors handing over their cash to bankers, who then pile that money into real estate or coal projects.

But in China, a grassroots financial movement fomenting off the balance sheet involves just that. And in some ways, it too is the story of a marginalized group of people, depositors, pushing back against an almighty, unmovable force, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

China caps the interest rate banks pay to depositors at about 3.3%. Until July, it also kept a floor around 6% on the interest rate borrowers paid on 30

China Economic Review | March 2014

loans. That almost three-point spread yielded big profits for banks while also helping the government channel the deposits of the masses toward state-owned firms.

That’s a chunk of change being lost by depositors. In November, Chinese retail depositors had more than RMB43 trillion (US$7.1 trillion) sitting in the bank. Even a slight increase in the deposit rate would equal major gains for Chinese consumers as a whole.

Instead of waiting around for the central bank to scrap the cap on deposit rates, Chinese citizens have looked for other ways to get better returns on their savings. Many have taken their hard-earned cash out of bank accounts and given it to bankers

who promised better – often wildly high – returns with wealth management products (WMPs). In doing so, they are putting increasing pressure on PBOC to liberalize deposit rates.

A better return A wealth management product is not a deposit in a bank. Far from it, in fact. Bankers pool these funds, which are not on the bank’s balance sheets, and then loan them out to businesses in desperate need of capital. This is China’s infamous shadow-banking sector. Trust and securities companies are often used to “tunnel” the funds from the banks to the end borrower, who might be a factory owner in Wenzhou city or a coal miner in Shanxi province.

M A R K E TS & F I N A N C E : I N T E R E S T R AT E S

That’s the problem with WMPs: The unhappy depositor doesn’t know where the cash has gone. Yet they often think of WMPs as a deposit with the bank that will unconditionally yield high returns. The lofty rates promised by WMPs are attractive to people tired of seeing their savings abused by PBOC. “WMPs are where China’s new middle class is meeting interest rate liberalization, and so far, households like what they see,” Standard Chartered said in a report.

WMPs and trusts have become so popular that the number of new loans as a share of total financing in China in 2013 fell from 52% to 51%.

That means, in the world of Chinese finance, the amount of off-balancesheet lending increased last year. For money market funds, assets under management jumped by 50% in the fourth quarter of last year, Fitch Ratings noted. That growth was driven by retail investors, many of whom were likely disgruntled depositors looking for a little bit extra.

The surge in retail investors in the industry is worrying the central bank.

The cash pouring into WMPs is increasingly the deposits of real people, not funds from an investment company.

“It’s definitely caught the attention of regulators but they’re still waiting on the sidelines and watching this develop,” said Zhang Yundi, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in Beijing. “Regulators will watch how they [WMPs] will attract retail investors so they can gauge the appetite for these funds.”

Road to ruin Why worry where ordinary people put their money? Because, if wealth management products begin to default en masse, China’s Communist Party could have a spate of social unrest on its hands as people lose their life savings and homes. There are signs that the house of cards that is the WMP industry may experience major defaults in 2014.

A US$500 million product offered

by China Credit Trust matures at the end of January yet it had little hope of repaying its more than 300 investors.

“It’s definitely caught the attention of regulators but they’re still waiting on the sidelines and watching this develop.”

- Zhang Yundi, analyst with Fitch Ratings in Beijing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which sold the products, said it doesn’t plan to bail out investors.

The bank and its state backers are not concerned that the investors in the China Credit Trust product will end up on the street if it defaults: They were mostly well off. However, about a third of the some US$760 billion in trust loans will mature this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If the government allows defaults, many average Chinese people could watch their savings

disappear.

It’s this point that has applied pressure on the central bank to continue to liberalize interest rates.

Standard Chartered noted that removing the cap on deposit rates would greatly decrease the demand for WMPs. In 2013, PBOC showed some willingness to move ahead with liberalization.

Last July, the central bank suddenly removed the floor on lending rates. That was a symbolic gesture to the market, however. At the time, most banks were not lending money at below the benchmark rate and ditching the floor had little impact on the market. Then, in mid-October, PBOC allowed commercial banks to issue negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs), large deposits available to fund managers. PBOC said the market would decide the interest rates for the NCDs. Again, that had a negligible impact because only players in the interbank market can use the new instruments.

Feeling the heat Still, both moves show that China is submitting to some pressure and

KEEP ON UP: Monitoring the Chinese financial system has officials on their toes

China Economic Review | March 2014

31

MARKETS & FINANCE: US AUDITORS IN CHINA

inching closer toward freeing up its deposit rates. The level of pressure, though, is debatable. “We think this is a problem and it will bring some risks to the financial institutions and macro economy,” Chen Xingyu, a banking analyst at Phillip Securities, said about off-balance-sheet lending.

“But for the short term, we think this risk is quite small and still under control.”

By exactly how much retail investment in WMPs will have to increase to push PBOC to uncap the deposit rate is unknown. The government has not issued a plan for this final step in interest liberalization and analysts are wary to predict when it will happen. “There’s certainly a possibility that they could lift the cap on deposit

rates but there is no timeline for this,” Zhang Yundi said.

Regulators have another option to rein in the WMP industry: Tighter controls. In March last year, China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) issued a document targeting wealth management products.

By April, the new rules, known as Document No. 8, had led to an 8.8% decrease in WMPs issued by banks, on paper a major victory for the ironfisted CBRC. Still, in March, total social financing, China’s broadest measure of credit growth, increased 22% year-on-year, a 21-month high.

What’s more, that lending was driven by off-balance-sheet loans, namely trust products, which are issued by non-bank trust firms and therefore

not regulated by Document No. 8.

CBRC is reportedly crafting another regulatory antidote, Document No. 9. That has yet to be issued but it could crack down further on off-balance-sheet lending, especially interbank market funds.

The experience with Document No. 8 shows that, when regulators shut one door, investors open another. The bottom-up pressure that investors and everyday depositors are applying on the central bank to raise interest rates will not ease under tighter control.

Grassroots investors in China have shown a keen aptitude for skirting the rules. A new set could simply drive funds further into the shadows of the banking sector.

Closed books US regulators are engaged in a fight with China they can never win

C

hinese securities regulators are showing just how averse to embarrassment and defeat they really are. Their intention to keep foreign eyes off the accounting documents of the country’s firms that are listed in the US, particularly the state-owned ones, has taken Chinese companies and US investors on a wild and increasingly perilous ride since 2011.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) ruling in late January to suspend the companies that audit US-listed Chinese firms could be the beginning of the end of a several-year showdown. China’s unflinching attitude toward the SECs decision shows just how much it is willing to risk to keep secrets firmly on the mainland.

The SEC has waged a slow but steady attack on US-listed Chinese firms and their auditors, namely the Chinese affiliates of Deloitte, PricewaterhouseCoopers, KPMG and 32

China Economic Review | March 2014

GOING NOWHERE The US Securities and Exchange Commission can threaten the big four auditors all it likes for the books of their Chinese clients but the documents won’t likley ever leave China

Credit: Robert Shanklin

MARKETS & FINANCE: US AUDITORS IN CHINA

SIT COMFORTABLY: US securities officials should prepare for an uphill battle in their negotiations with China

Ernst & Young, collectively known as the “Big Four.” The regulator demands to review company working papers, in line with US law, to protect investors against fraud.

In May 2011, the SEC subpoenaed the working papers of Chinese firm Longtop Financial Technologies from Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu.

The Longtop case, which the SEC had just probed for accounting irregularities, was a portent for a much larger shock to Wall Street.

The New York Stock Exchange moved to delist Longtop three months later, and since then more than 100 US-listed Chinese firms have received similar treatment or simply stopped filing regulatory paperwork.

After more than a year of trying to get its hands on Chinese working papers, in early December 2012 the SEC charged all four of the accounting firms’ China affiliates with violating US law. The half-year suspension of those companies issued this January was the SEC’s ruling on that

“Ultimately it is the American investors and institutional managers who will take the most of the financial losses.” Junheng Li, head of research at JL Warren Capital in New York case, albeit not the final say as the Big Four plan have appealed.

Winners and losers The heart of the dispute revolves around the China Securities Regulatory Commission’s (CSRC) unwillingness to let US regulators see working papers from Chinese firms, followed by the reluctance of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), a body

mandated by the US Congress to oversee the audits of public firms, to take real action for this severe breach of US law.

Insiders have told China Economic Review that working papers from China’s state-owned firms could reveal some embarrassing details, for example the connections that the families of top Chinese leaders have to some of the country’s biggest, most powerful enterprises.

The literature is so sensitive that China has conveniently labelled them “state secrets.” The Big Four affiliates say their management could face time in a Chinese prison should they hand over the documents.

China has come out as the easy winner in the game.

The PCAOB has made little observable headway in weeding out Chinese accounting fraud. Last May, the board signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the CSRC and the Ministry of Finance which allows it to request working papers if it suspects irregularities.

The deal was another victory for China Economic Review | March 2014

33

Credit: Brian Yang

MARKETS & FINANCE: US AUDITORS

GOOD BUSINESS: The big four auditors have a strong presence in China that they can’t afford to lose

China, allowing its companies to continue to operate without handing over the paperwork.

For the PCAOB, and US investors as a whole, it was another defeat. Experts said that after-thefact reviews of working papers would hardly prevent fraudulent companies from taking US investors’ cash.

That deal did, however, lead the SEC to drop the original 2011 charges against Deloitte just days after it issued the suspension in January.

The MoU provided enough room for US regulators to gather the information they have long sought on Longtop.

End game The SEC ruling is the first real American regulatory muscle to be flexed in the ongoing dispute.

Unfortunately, the effort could be 34

China Economic Review | March 2014

in vain – and it could hurt US companies at the same time. China isn’t playing this game to lose or to be embarrassed on the international stage.

First, appeals from the Big Four will likely drag the case out for a very long time. This could help Chinese firms and their auditors continue to violate US law. Investors should know the risks.

Next, the suspension could result in the delisting of many Chinese companies depending on when it is imposed.

Yet, if the Big Four affiliates are banned after they make annual regulatory filings for Chinese companies, the punishment will have little impact over the six-month period. All parties involved must be questioning what happens after the half-year stall. The next few years are guaranteed to be chaotic ones for investors.

“Ultimately it is the American investors and institutional managers who will take the most of the financial losses,” Junheng Li, head of research at JL Warren Capital, said in a note to investors on the prospects for a complete delisting of Chinese firms.

A six-month ban will also stop the Big Four affiliates from working on audits for multinational companies (MNCs) that do business in China, Paul Gillis, a professor of practice at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, wrote in a blog entry. “That would increase the risk on MNCs with China operations which is not in anyone’s best interest,” Gillis said.

Large foreign companies are already feeling the heat from a series of probes by Chinese regulators over the past 12 months.

Perhaps most importantly, by delisting Chinese companies, the SEC may be giving China what it wants.

China’s regulators were never enthusiastic about US investors buying into mainland companies. In fact, the government still imposes strict rules that attempt to stop companies in sensitive industries from listing abroad (the companies have figured out ways around those rules). Should a suspension of the Big Four’s China affiliates result in delistings in New York, Beijing will happily welcome the firms back to the mainland.

After all, China Development Bank, a policy institution that takes orders directly from the government, put aside US$1 billion in 2012 to help buy out troubled firms on US exchanges.

Despite its miserable performance, the Shanghai Stock Exchange recently reopened to IPOs after blocking new listings for longer than a year.

Officials would no doubt prefer to see companies listed here than in the US. The SEC has fought hard but will likely stumble in this final attempt to bring Chinese companies to heel. In the end, China will opt to keep its companies and its secrets well guarded at home.

2014ฤ3Ꮬఓ

新消费时代 投资神话 互联网思维 海外并购起狂澜

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目录

ቤ਋‫ފ‬ 36 均衡与会通

37 ௡ୡ ॖෂ৺ူ 38 新消费时代

જᄌ 40 揭秘互联网思维 42 海外并购起狂澜 44 终结投资神话 45 杯中自有黄金屋

ᓜ౺

38

ॖෂ৺ူ

46 综合与分析

ቤሿॅဟࡔ

ఘᒦਪ 47 时光荏苒

均衡与会通

新观察

以更开放的心态与各国交往并学其所长 文 | 海客

人

36

民币兑美元汇率近期虽出现短暂

去年M2和信贷投放达到惊人数额。

少可以拿到养老保险。这也许是推迟退休

下跌，但长期升值的趋势并未逆

但资金不愿意进入高风险、低收益的实体

年龄招致非议的重要原因。古之先贤早就

转。对于人民币汇率的持续上升，有人言

经济，而是在金融体系内部流转；或被大

警示过“不患寡而患不均”，对贫富两极

之凿凿地指为美国阴谋：人民币升值美元

量投入市政建设项目和房地产业，拉升了

化这一社会焦点焉能轻忽。

贬值，中国借给美国的一万多亿美元国债

银行负债率。虽然信贷总量在增加，结构

也随之缩水；中国出口受挫，美国产品对

性不平衡却日益严重。

国际关系的焦点则是东瀛。很多国 人对这个曾侵略中国且不愿道歉的国家甚

华进口因之受益。如果人民币拒绝升值，

严重失衡的还有收入分配。退休年龄

感愤慨和鄙夷，认为应对之持更强硬的姿

美国就从贸易、外交、政治等多方面对中

可能延长到65岁的消息引发了反对声浪，

态；而另一方面也承认这个岛国在诸多领

国施加压力。这种把矛头指向美国的“阴

这显然与收入分配的两极化有关。由于地

域确有值得借鉴之处。明治维新以前，中

谋论”近年在国内颇为流行。人民币升值

位、职权的差异，少数高层在工作岗位上

国文化曾影响了日本几千年，后者“脱亚

对某些群体也许是福音：有能力购买更多

享受到了巨大利益，而大部分普通员工则

入欧”才逆袭反超。在当今全球化时代，

的海外资产和奢侈品。普通民众则从切身

收入有限。尤其是中年员工，如果始终处

如果双方以和平、公平的手段在各个领域

利益出发，更关注人民币在国内贬值的问

于企业底层，随着年龄增长，处境只会愈

展开全方位竞争，相信不出50年，中国将

题：物价上涨，口袋里的钞票越来越不值

发尴尬。机构或企业中位高权重者也许希

有望全面超越之。而“欲求超胜，必先会

钱。而官方公布的CPI却低得令人大跌眼

望越晚退休越好，甚至还渴望终身制。大

通”（徐光启），因此当以更开放的心态

镜，难道这也是“阴谋”？

部分普通员工则希望尽早退休，退休后至

与各国交往并学其所长。

China Economic Review | March 2014

聚焦

特斯拉电动车的利好消息刺激A股新能源汽车概念股上涨

宏观经济与产业趋势

告，2011至去年互联网金融领域共发生90

中国车入欧须建新分销模式

人民币不改长期升值趋势

起投资事件，涉及企业78家，其中约40家

罗兰贝格管理咨询公司在近期的研究报告

2月人民币兑美元境内即期汇率连续6个交

企业为天使投资或首轮融资。从时间序列

中指出，中国品牌可以把握欧美传统分销

易日下跌，盘中并触及半年新低6.1310

来看，去年出现爆发式增长。互联网金融

模式危机带来的机遇。欧洲传统汽车分销

元。今年累计跌幅超过1%。高盛、花旗、

发展呈现三大趋势：以第三方支付、移动

体系效率下降、结构死板，同时面临产能

摩根士丹利等外资投行认为，人民币连续

支付替代传统支付业务；以人人贷替代传

过剩、全球经济危机进一步结构性降低新

贬值反映中国央行增加汇率双向波动的意

统存贷款业务；以众筹融资替代传统证券

车市场需求的挑战。中国汽车已在技术以

图，为扩大汇率浮动区间做准备，人民币

业务。众筹是集中社会的资金、能力和渠

及车辆外观上取得长足进步，但要抓住机

长期升值趋势不变。德意志银行维持人民

道，为小企业或个人进行某项活动等提供

遇，成功进入欧洲市场，还必须能够建立

币兑美元今年将升值2%~2.5%的预测，

必要的资金援助，是近两年国外最热门的

真正涵盖从销售到转售再到保养与修理的

并预计人民币即期汇率近期可望走稳。彭

创业方向之一。根据福布斯杂志数据，截

生态系统，其中关键是建设新型分销模

博对分析师调查所得预期中值显示，人民

至去年第二季度，全球范围内众筹融资网

式，如网络模式和O2O模式等。

币兑美元在今年剩余时间预计上涨2.6%。

站已达1500多家。

IT成全球创造富豪最多行业

美银美林认为，中国信托违约高风险期将 出现在今年4月至7月间，美元兑人民币资

新能源汽车概念股受追捧

微软创始人比尔·盖茨以约合4100亿元人

产利差交易将会面临冲击。美联储QE规模

电动汽车制造商特斯拉公司宣布将建世

民币财富登顶2014胡润全球富豪榜。中国

缩减可能导致新兴市场货币贬值。国家外

界最大电池工厂计划。美国一份权威报

超过美国成为全球富豪最多国家，在全球

汇管理局报告指出，美联储QE退出，欧洲

告将特斯拉Model S汽车评为整体表现最

排名前十位地产富豪中，中国房地产商占

日本货币政策持续量化宽松，美元汇率可

佳的汽车。特斯拉称今年Model S销售量

7席。86岁的香港富豪李嘉诚列十大房地

能阶段性走强，因而可能加剧人民币汇率

将至少达到3.5万辆。特斯拉CEO马斯克

产商首位，也是华人首富，在榜单中列第

波动，海外市场也可能出现人民币贬值预

（Elon Musk）将于近期访华，交付中国

12位。万达集团董事长王健林以1500亿元

期。野村控股和一些经济学家预测，中国

市场第一辆Model S汽车。马斯克在2014

人民币成为中国大陆首富。IT行业成为今

央行可能在未来数周内将人民币兑美元汇

胡润全球富豪榜上的财富约合400亿人民

年创造富豪最多的行业。腾讯CEO马化腾

率的交易区间扩大一倍。

币，是上年4倍。受益北京大规模建设充

以840亿元人民币位列华人第八，世界第

电桩、特斯拉股价创新高等利好刺激，A

70位。阿里巴巴董事局主席马云以425亿

互联网金融三大发展趋势

股围绕新能源汽车产业链的充电桩、特斯

元人民币位列华人第28名，全球排名跃居

根据清科研究中心最新互联网金融报

拉、锂电池等概念股出现暴涨。

192位，财富较上年增长173%。

China Economic Review | March 2014

37

封面故事

新消费时代 品牌营销应洞悉消费群体的变化并实现价值互换

一家餐馆用餐时，她用手机拍下比

在

实力传播在调研了150座最富裕的国内城

中产阶层拥有的智能手机中平均每4部就

较满意的菜肴，发送到微信朋友

市后得出结论：这一消费阶层拥有私家车

有一部被用来收看视频。在他们在线浏览

圈里，没过多久就有朋友“点赞”和评论

或非常有兴趣在未来一年购买；而根据互

的视频内容中，电影是重点，其次是电视

了。在品牌传播公司任职的邓女士热衷于

联网调查发现，这个群体已拥有智能手机

剧，而后是综艺栏目和搞笑视频。在电影

在线消费，过去通过PC上网，近几年则主

或IPAD等高科技通讯工具。实力传播集团

中，欧美排名第一，港台第二，然后才是

要使用智能手机和平板电脑。凡能在线购

突破传媒CEO郑香霖表示，对中产阶层进

大陆电影，日韩排第四。电视剧则有所不

买和付款的商品她就不去实体店，坐出租

行精准定位，可以帮助营销界找到最好地

同，不管在哪类城市，大陆电视剧排名都

车也用打车软件预约，与朋友聚餐前会先

与这一消费群体沟通的途径。

很高，接下来是港台，再下来才是欧美。

在网上查询再做出选择，她会看社交媒体

实力传播全球执行合伙人兼亚太区董

如果将各种类型的内容合并比较，总体还

中的评论，也会发送自己拍的照片和心得

事长波义耳（Gerry Boyle）认为，不同

是欧美电影排第一，但港台和大陆电视剧

与朋友们分享。目前中国像她这样的消费

国家对于中产阶层的定位有所不同。中产

也很靠前。此外，在线视频中午收视率略

者数以亿计。而邓女士还有一个身份则是

阶层不只是指拥有的财富，还包括诸如人

高于电视，收视黄金时段也比电视更晚。

专业的品牌营销人员。

生观、归属感、权利和地位等内涵。

如何针对中产阶层的消费特点做好品

在线营销特别是移动互联营销的爆发

互联网是中产阶层重要的消费媒介，

牌营销？郑香霖归纳了几点心得：从内容

式增长，推动全球消费者的行为方式发生

他们的网络日到达率比电视或其他媒体更

入手，选择合适的平台（如智能手机），

嬗变：更崇尚新产品，更看重购物体验，

高，杂志和广播的日到达率也比其他人群

充分运用科技领域的新工具新方法或新

对于营销传递信息的需求也更高。中国消

更高，在线视频的日到达率可排第三位。

模式。

费者则引领移动互联的潮流，他们将“成 就感和骄傲”视为关键词，并乐意与朋友 谈论手机、汽车等品牌，一旦拥有这些品 牌就会倍感自豪。消费者对于搜索引擎的 依赖性越来越强，他们在购买之前会搜索 信息，过滤无价值的信息。而朋友之间的 推荐也比以前更甚，中国消费者“相信朋 友推荐”的比例最高，也更看重他人对品 牌的评价。这是埃培智集团（IPG）品牌 之趣的调查结论。 调查还指出，在品牌营销中，信任 是很严肃的课题，赢得消费者信任，品牌 营销就成功了一大半。建立品牌信誉度至 为关键，而消费者希望获取可靠的品牌信 息。因此，应在营销中增加透明度，清晰 地传递出品牌信息，以增加品牌信誉度， 更好地满足消费需求。

中产阶层 伴随着中国经济的高速成长，中产阶 层也日益壮大，并渐成新消费时代的主力 军。那么，应如何界定中国中产阶层呢？

38

China Economic Review | March 2014

移动互联营销的爆发式增长推动消费者的行为方式发生嬗变

新消费时代

价值互换

需求推动着社交媒体的发展。

学会“欲先取之，必先予之”。在品牌传

人们为什么愿意融入社交媒体？品牌

飞博创始人兼CEO伊光旭观察到，

播时，应该首先考虑到消费者的需求，然

营销应如何利用好社交媒体？消费者想要

社交媒体、微博、微信的用户大部分是冲

后是可以给消费者提供什么。如果能够满

通过社交媒体与品牌建立怎样的关系？

着两个需求去的：第一是要更好玩、更有

足其需求，“上头条”也就顺理成章了。

优盟调研每年都会针社交媒体做调

趣、更能满足好奇心，基于这些需求会诞

查，考察其生存状态。社交媒体的使用者

生很多快乐的内容和有趣的互动；第二个

日众，而移动终端的普及推动了这一变

就是要对自己有用。

洞察消费 戴小京认为，在品牌传播中通过消费

化，为数众多的中国用户通过智能手机接

当今时代，消费者在品牌传播中不再

者进行再传播是一个重要趋势，这一过程

入互联网。优盟调研负责人葛兰·派克

只是信息的被动接受者，而是逐渐转化为

就是与消费者进行“价值互换”。胡文彬

（Glen

Parker）表示，智能手机的普及

传播的主导者，并成为品牌再传播的重要

对此表示赞同。他进而表示，价值交换是

从根本上改变了人与人之间交流的方式，

环节。品牌主应如何调整传播策略，才能

商业思维的大转变，要做好品牌营销和传

智能手机还能够实现更多的功能，而社交

与消费者产生有效互动？财讯传媒集团总

播，一定要改变传统企业的做法。

媒体就是最适合智能移动终端发展的平

裁戴小京认为，社交媒体改变了传统的大

在与很多品牌营销人员交流时伊光

台。优盟调查发现，英国人使用社交媒体

规模单向传播方式，而与移动互联网的结

旭发现，他们感到苦恼的是，在社交媒体

是为了享受乐趣，德国和北欧民众则不太

合引发了大规模的互动传播。在互动传播

中，价格淹没了一切。比如所有品牌在淘

相信网上的信息，对于他们来说是要建立

中，被传播者也是强有力的传播者，在品

宝、天猫体现出来的都是价格，但品牌背

人与人之间的紧密关系，在俄罗斯就意味

牌传播时如果不关注受众的价值和需求，

后的故事、品牌的调性、有趣的内容都没

着自我宣传和推广。而在新兴市场，社交

就无法使传播获得巨大的能量。

有得到体现。怎样才能够凸显品牌价值？

媒体则代表着进步。菲律宾人和越南人想

品牌主对营销人的要求往往是“我要

伊光旭觉得未来品牌营销更多地要用80

要通过建立关系来赚钱。中国文化与众不

上头条”，欲以此吸引消费者眼球，创造

后、90后的思维方式和语言来传达品牌调

同之处就是特别崇尚学习，很多人使用社

商业价值。对此优盟媒体中国数码沟通总

性，这样才会更有趣。对内容进行创新较

交媒体是出于学习的目的。正是这些基本

监胡文彬指出，在运用社会化媒体时，要

难，但在内容的表达方式上进行创新则比 较简单也会更有趣。 社交媒体压缩了时空，打破了信息 传播的垄断，任何人都可以接受并上传信 息。戴小京提醒，如此一来，信息实际上 就弥漫了，因而更需要有稳定的信息源； 人与人的关系也无限发散了，因而更需要 做出相对稳定的选择，因为受众只能在有 限的信息和关系中去生活和创造。 未来社交媒体将在品牌传播中起到怎 样的作用？胡文彬认为，在当今时代，科 技会改变一切，但是科技一定要服务于人 的需求，同时也应服务于品牌和企业的需 求。伊光旭表示，未来社交媒体的内容和 产品与客户是相结合的，将会更加有序。 他强调，一切要以人的尺度为标尺，因为 人是万物的标尺，也是商业社会的标尺。 新消费时代的广告主和品牌营销人员 面临着重大的机遇和挑战。社交媒体日新 月异，仅凭借某一个平台就吸引消费者的 时代将一去不复返。新一代品牌营销必定 以内容为王，而下一波竞争则是能否见微 知著地洞察消费者的较量。

China Economic Review | March 2014

39

话题

揭秘互联网思维 一个“幽灵”在中国企业上空游荡 文 | 博猷

互

联网变化之迅疾，让人目不暇接。

说，有自己的品牌标识只是开始，在用户

把解决痛点的方案用放大镜放大100倍，

互联网企业的成与败究竟有什么

的脑海中形成记忆关键词才叫成功。

让用户由痛变痛快。

原因？BAT（百度、阿里巴巴和腾讯）为

第二是简约思维。简约不是从最近才

第六是尖叫点思维。所谓尖叫点，

何会茁壮成长？小米为何能够在短时间内

兴起的新鲜事物，而早在谷歌、百度的产

不是那种让人听了说“哇，这么好”的产

崛起？传统企业尤其是中国制造业在互联

品设计里，就透出这种极简思维的魅力。

品，而应该是那种让人听了说“你再说一

网浪潮下应如何变革和发展？对于这些问

少即是多，简约即是美，简约而不简单！

遍，我没听错吧”的产品。

题，资深互联网专家陈光锋认为：“其中

看看Hao123网站是如何年收入20亿的。

的奥妙就在于互联网思维，冲向互联网浪

第三是NO.1思维。所谓不想当将军

有口碑。苹果的粉丝叫果粉，小米的粉丝

潮之巅，产品、营销、运营都离不开这一

的士兵不是好士兵，谁都希望能够在互联

叫米粉，跨越了互联网和娱乐圈。无论是

套思维。”

网上独占鳌头，取得第一。而数据也说

大品牌还是小品牌，都开始将粉丝重视起

互联网思维一词最早的提及者可能是

明，第一的产品和第二之间往往存在绝对

来，让粉丝有三感：参与感、尊重感、成

李彦宏，在2011年的一些演讲中，他就

的市场占有比例差，互联网只有第一，没

就感。

偶尔提到这个词，其意是要基于互联网的

有第二。

特征来思考。此后，马化腾、小米手机雷 军、自媒体名人罗振宇等频繁提及该词。

第八是爆点思维。不仅要给产品包装

第四是产品思维。很多成功的项目

卖点，还要刻画产品性格，形成引爆点，

之所以被津津乐道都离不开产品的优秀。

借势利用微博、微信、IM、博客、论坛、 朋友圈、视频等引爆社会化营销。

中央电视台去年11月3日《新闻联

也就是说，无论营销推广的能力有多么优

播》头条播出了《互联网思维带来了什

秀，在产品面前都是被动的，只有产品才

么》，以海尔空调和小米手机为例，展示

是主动的，好的产品自己会说话！

第九是迭代思维。天下武功，唯快 不破。迭代就是产品不断进步和发展的过

了信息交互、知识分享的互联网新思维给

第五是痛点思维。痛点是一切产品的

程。十年磨一剑OUT了，小步快跑，没

中国制造业带来的改变。引发了更多人对

基础，挖掘痛点不要相信用户的嘴，要相

有什么能经得起迭代，想了就说，说了就

互联网思维的思考和探索。

信用户的腿，不要靠感觉，而要靠数据，

干，错了就改，持续试错微创新。

互联网思维的精髓究竟是什么？雷 军将之总结为七字诀“专注、极致、口 碑、快”。而马化腾在腾讯15周年WE大 会谈到互联网未来的7个观点：第一，连 接一切；第二，互联网+传统行业=创新； 第三，开放式协作；第四，消费者参与决 策；第五，数据成为资源；第六，顺应潮 流的勇气；第七，连接有风险。

核心思维 在《互联网思维：商业颠覆与重构》 一书中，陈光锋将雷军的互联网七字诀和 马化腾的7个观点相结合，系统化地提炼 出“十大核心互联网思维”： 第一是标签思维。现在想一想，你的 产品的标签是什么？如果没有，很不幸， 这款产品离成功还很遥远。对于产品来

40

第七是粉丝思维：只要有粉丝，就会

China Economic Review | March 2014

小米手机创始人雷军是互联网思维的主要倡导者

话题

探询互联网思维的精髓

第十是整合思维。整合不仅仅是资源 的整合，它可以是企业内部的重组，也可

个人都可以满载而归；如果你不在那里； 就肯定发现不了机会。

格力电器董事长董明珠女士因与雷 军对赌10亿元而一度成为舆论焦点。她

以是不同的企业之间的合作。打造开放可

作为财富管理行业的资深人士，汪静

对互联网思维泼了冷水，“大家把互联网

掌控的产业生态链，当大企业无法在短时

波指出，目前财富管理行业还在以日出而

的概念搞错了，把它当成了单纯的线上买

间内取得某个领域的地位时，不如选择并

作、日落而息的方式在展业，以面对面的

卖。互联网是用在实处，用在为消费者服

购领域内最好的产品或企业。

方式在服务客户。需要思考的是，客户是

务上，而不是营销，不是简单的买卖。”

否会有变化，是否还会如同过去一样地被

她认为利用好互联网确实可以提高企业效

互联网金融

服务着？同时，也有一点是极其清晰的。

率，实际上格力电器早就进入互联网时

互联网金融理财的异军突起是互联网

在互联网金融时代开启的时候，金融企业

代，只是没有推出一种概念而已。

思维的最好体现之一，而去年6月面世的余

毫无疑问是占据着先发优势的，因为互联

联想中国区总裁陈旭东称，部分企业

额宝就是成功案例。在其带动下，一些互

网金融的本质，仍然是金融，而不是互联

宣称的互联网思维更多的是噱头，不要被

联网公司、支付平台、银行、基金公司陆

网。不管是风险管理，还是资产配置，还

表面所迷惑。联想集团掌门人杨元庆更是

续推出各种带“宝”字的货币基金产品。

是客户服务，都是金融企业的强项，只是

以“互联网取代一切的思维是错误的”来

需要以互联网的语言来表达。

质疑互联网思维，他认为互联网改造企业

诺亚财富董事长兼CEO汪静波认 为，互联网金融是新的金融形态。在互联

汪静波预期，最有可能的是，互联网

网的年代，原有的产业周期被打破、产业

与金融将融合产生新金融时代，金融业的

的颠覆不再以年为计算，也许就是下一个

价值链条和思维模式将会得到重建，而不

这些质疑对于提出“十大核心互联

15分钟。在互联网金融上，互联网再一次

是在互联网上加上金融要素，或者在金融

网思维”的陈光锋看来是不成立的。“不

清晰展示其特性：比传统市场大数百倍、

上加上所谓的互联网思维。

管是哪个行业，在新时代想要与同行业竞

长尾、去中心化、一切以纳秒计算、量变 带来质变、以人性的深刻洞察为依托。根

的业务模式绝对不仅仅是营销，在企业的 每个环节都面对挑战。

争，都离不开互联网思维的指导，互联网

质疑之声

思维不仅仅影响当下的互联网企业，传统

据多种数据交叉推算，在互联网上的高净

在互联网思维被炒热之际，也不乏质

值客户体量相当可观。目前的一些销售事

疑和反对之声。有人就对互联网金融不以

互联网思维的“幽灵”在中国企业上

件，也许只是发现了河道里的一些金粒。

为然。近期央视一名新闻评论员在博客中

空游荡，不论是鼓吹、追捧还是质疑这一

互联网金融正在重复200年前的加利佛尼

呼吁“取缔”余额宝，指其“冲击了中国

概念的企业家，恐怕都不愿错失互联网和

亚定律：金矿就在那里；但是并不保证每

全社会的融资成本，扭曲了市场利率”。

大数据带来的机遇。

企业更需要学习它。”他如此写道。

China Economic Review | March 2014

41

话题

海外并购起狂澜 跨国并购将成为中国企业拓展国际市场的重要路径

杨元庆（右）率领联想开启高端国际化的征程

42

农

历大年夜这天，也即1月30日，联

然其近两年来销量惨淡，但是品牌价值犹

司35%股份。随着欧洲债务危机的缓解，

想集团宣布以29亿美元左右的价格

在，有助于联想有效拓展高端智能手机市

继李嘉诚进军英国市场后，中国企业对欧

购买谷歌的摩托罗拉移动智能手机业务，

场。其三是获得专利。联想由传统IT厂商

洲进行资产性收购的案例逐渐增多。中欧

并将全面接管摩托罗拉移动的产品规划。

转型做移动终端，在智能手机技术及专利

之间的经贸交往也将日益频密。

联想期望以此进入竞争激烈的欧美智能手

方面积累较少，不利于与三星、苹果、微

机市场。

软（诺基亚）进行竞争，尤其在欧美市

爆发性增长

联想于2005年收购IBM PC之举曾

场，可能因专利问题付出惨痛代价。本次

中国并购市场去年呈现爆发性增长，

引起业界震惊和舆论轰动，而此次收购则

收购中包含2000多项专利，可为联想保驾

交易数量与金额双双冲上高位。清科研究

显示其高端国际化之路正式起航。易观国

护航。

中心统计数据显示，受境内资本市场关闸

际分析师王珺认为，联想此举主要出于三

中国企业收购欧美知名企业已非罕见

的影响，去年国内并购和跨境并购均出现

个目的：其一是智能手机国际化。联想智

之举。清科研究中心统计发现，今年1月，

不同程度增长。A股企业纷纷选择借壳和

能手机销量目前在全球排名第三，但主要

中国企业共发生14起海外并购，其中欧洲

重组，国内并购市场在交易量和交易金额

依靠中国市场，在国际市场的拓展没有实

地区发生4起。绿地集团以约9.85亿美元

上爆发性突破历史高点。跨境并购虽然活

现质的突破。收购摩托罗拉移动之后，可

收购伦敦RAM啤酒厂地产项目。绿地集团

跃度远低于国内并购，但在金额规模方面

以利用其与全球50多家运营商的关系，

目前在中国80个城市约有5600万平方米

出现大幅上扬：去年跨境并购共完成138

迅速进入国际市场。其二是进军高端产品

的在建项目，且在韩国济州岛、泰国芭堤

起，涉及交易额514.63亿美元，较2012

市场。国产品牌手机，如联想、华为、中

雅、澳大利亚悉尼和美国纽约洛杉矶拥有

年的334.83亿美元上升53.7%，平均交易

兴等，一直以来都是以低端产品为主。联

大型商用和住宅开发项目。此外，河南航

金额高达4.86亿美元。

想通过收购，获得摩托罗拉手机品牌，虽

投以约2.16亿美元收购卢森堡货运航空公

China Economic Review | March 2014

造成这一现象的主要原因是什么？清

话题

科研究中心分析师曹紫婷从两个方面进行 了剖析：其一，由于存在巨大外汇储备、 投资过剩、产能过剩的现象，企业走出去 和资本输出逐渐成为趋势；其二，企业在 中国的市场已经趋于饱和，积极走出去可 以在海外开拓新市场，发展新渠道。基于 全球及中国的宏观经济现状，未来跨境并 购在中国并购市场的占比将越来越重要。 对此清科研究中心分析师申伶坤认 为，全球发达经济国家经济逐步复苏，消 费者对市场的信心大增；国内经济增长 放缓、货币政策收紧、IPO停滞，受此影 响，且在兼并重组政策的助推下，中国企 业纷纷选择通过兼并重组的方式，以优化 资产配置、扩大企业规模、实现战略转型 和产能结构调整。

互联网出海 互联网行业成为去年中国并购市场的 最大亮点。新兴产业崛起，行业巨头纷纷

从左至右为BAT三大掌门人：李彦宏 马云 马化腾

外市场，获取新用户群体，开发新技术，

购买力的提升，跨境交易日益增多，中国

将是未来互联网企业在规模扩张中必不可

企业进行兼并收购的机会将会更多。

少的战略举措。

成功靠什么

抢占最佳市场，战火也从国内蔓延到全球 市场。清科数据显示，截至去年12月31

未来成热点

中国企业走出去的道路上可谓荆棘丛

日，中国互联网并购市场共发生14起大

未来跨国并购将成为中国企业拓展国

生，而通过收购来实现国际化目标的企业

型海外案例，涉及金额近23亿美元。并购

际市场的一大热点。全球并购市场相较于

更是少之又少，像联想这样虽不能说绝无

方的大买家主要为中国互联网企业三大巨

前两年呈现出复苏的迹象，新兴经济体起

仅有，也可说是屈指可数。

头—百度、阿里巴巴、腾讯。其中腾讯

到了不可或缺的作用。曹紫婷分析认为，

朗涛大中华区总裁陈以聪认为，联想

并购最为活跃，共发生案例7起；阿里巴巴

基于庞大的外汇资金储备，中国将在全球

成功的关键在于企业文化。联想集团中的

次之，去年共发生3起海外并购；百度去年

并购中有着卓越的表现。另外，目前银行

13位高管分别来自7个国家，除联想之外

仅并购1起海外企业；奇虎360和探路者分

利率处于较低水品，企业贷款用于收购的

没有一家中国公司具备如此国际化的高管

别发生并购2起和1起。他们的投资目的地

成本也相应减少，这些因素皆为复苏中的

背景。联想将这一高管结构嵌入企业文化

遍布亚洲、欧洲、北美和南美，其中，美

全球并购活动提供了有力的资金支持。同

中，换而言之，联想的企业文化就是博采

国是最主要的投资目的地，共有10家标的

时上海自由贸易区设立的核心是金融改

众长。此外，其透明度很高，聘请了国际

公司位于美国。

革，实质就是实现金融自由化、汇率国际

化的审计公司进行审计。这些都有助于联

从上述海外并购案例分析，互联网企

化、利率市场化，使自贸区成为境内企业

想在完成跨国收购后迅速成长为国际化品

业已经开始向全球化布局，这是清科研究

与海外资本和市场对接的窗口。自贸区的

牌，赢得全球市场的青睐。

中心分析师曹紫婷得出的结论。她进而指

设立将助力中国企业走出去。

虽说目前已有89家中国公司跻身于全

出，移动互联网依然是本轮海外并购的重

中国市场竞争日趋激烈，通过收购

球500强，但在全球最享盛名的消费品牌

头戏，其中9起移动互联网领域的并购涉

而掌握先进科技的中国企业将在市场中拥

中，还没有一个属于中国。而早在明朝，

及手机游戏、移动安全、搜索和社交等方

有决定性的优势，而美国与欧洲经济的复

原产中国的精美瓷器就曾畅销全世界，并

面；电子商务领域的海外并购主要聚焦于

苏也使进军这些市场显得更具吸引力。此

在欧洲风行了几百年。憧憬一下，何时才

专业垂直领域和在线电商两大板块，其中

外，国资委在评估其负责监督的国有企业

能重现辉煌和荣耀？也许还要经过很长一

体育与旅游是中国企业十分关注的专业电

业绩时，也开始将将焦点从销量转向盈利

段路途的跋涉，才会出现世界级的中国品

商垂直领域。

能力。在国有企业考虑海外收购时，这一

牌。而通过海外收购实现国际化的“联想

互联网企业在国际化征程中，采用资

转变将使少数股权投资方式成为可能。曹

模式”也不失为一条可资中国企业效仿的

本先行的并购手段。曹紫婷表示，扩展海

紫婷相信，未来几年，伴随着人民币国际

捷径。

China Economic Review | March 2014

43

话题

终结投资神话 黄金大牛市的戛然而止对中国投资者敲响了警钟

是“安全”的。但是黄金现在是一种被过 度投机的物质，它受制于羊群效应行为， 人们很快就会意识到黄金其实是“危险的 避难所”。 雅各布为什么能够未卜先知？又是 如何得出这个结论的？当他把这一个个有 关黄金的历史和预测的事件拼凑起来后， 就形成了完整的画面，他以超过95%的 可能性确信黄金将面临灾难性的下跌。 “我能看到的所有证据，我所学过的有关 识别泡沫的方法，所有技术、图表、事件 和广告宣传都告诉我这是泡沫的信号。整 个世界几乎都符合我对黄金的看法。我最 终看到经济、货币、股市、准备金率、通 货膨胀、商品预期、时间和消费者全部都 一边倒的景象，一个指向一致的市场和世 界。”雅各布如此写道。 他向投资者发出忠告：黄金价格跟通 货膨胀无关，至今也不存在有效的黄金估 黄金的投资价值被神化了

值体系，黄金是价格浮动剧烈的投机品， 黄金ETF助推了黄金价格的暴涨，黄金价

几何时，黄金被视为财富的避风

曾

然后才开始写这本书。经过仔细和全面地

格变动因素的复杂程度远远超过一般人的

港，其投资价值被神化了。人们普

分析黄金自1880年以来的价格、通货膨

想象。

遍相信：黄金就代表价值本身，投资黄金

胀趋势、相关基本面时间、图表规律、投

在全世界都对黄金的未来做出“非

安全而可靠，黄金是对抗通货膨胀的最后

资者行为、新闻覆盖和成千上万股市、经

理性行为”的时候，雅各布把对黄金泡沫

堤防。

济、心理学方面的信息，他大胆判定黄金

的论证延伸到了一个具有开创性、根本意

里有泡沫并且最终会走向崩溃，这会给大

义的准确预测上。在“神化黄金的投资功

部分投资者带来严重的伤害。

能”与“无限扩大黄金的财富保值功能”

然而，这一神话在2013年被颠覆 了，金价在半年里下跌近1/4，持续10年

44

的黄金大牛市拉上了帷幕。而这一幕早在

在科技股泡沫和住房泡沫破裂前，

的欢呼声中，众人皆醉我独醒的雅各布指

两年前就被美国逆向投资者约尼·雅各布

耶鲁大学的罗伯特·希勒教授出版了《非

出了黄金的公允价值错位，再次印证了

预料到了。在出版于2012年4月的《黄

理性繁荣》，他在书中预测了极端投资者

“真理往往掌握在少数人手里”。

金大崩溃》（英文版）中，雅各布称“黄

对市场的情绪和大量的投机泡沫导致市场

美国著名经济学家金德尔伯格说

金处在一个注定会爆破的泡沫里”，他在

的突然崩溃。雅各布发现，继科技股和住

过：“如果有人能完美地预测未来的话，

前言中写道：“我只知道黄金已经存在泡

房后，黄金成为了非理性行为的对象。与

他就能看到这个过程其实很不稳定，而且

沫，黄金价格将会暴跌，许多人会亏损巨

科技股和住房产业不同，黄金在历史上是

内部破裂是不可避免的事情。”

大。”而彼时金价正站在历史高位，整整

被附加了光环的，人们似乎都有黄金价格

黄金大牛市的终结对中国投资者敲

一年后，不出所料，金价开始节节下跌。

永远不会跌的错觉。因为黄金曾是货币的

响了警钟，而雅各布对黄金泡沫的分析和

雅各布用了一年的时间，深入研究黄

象征，而且几千年来几乎所有的国家、民

其必将破灭的预测则给他们上了深刻的一

金、商品、新兴市场、美元和股票市场，

族都在寻找它，黄金投资者假设投资黄金

课：任何投资神话都是要幻灭的。

China Economic Review | March 2014

话题

杯中自有黄金屋 未来中国市场对于葡萄酒和进口烈酒的需求会持续上升

在

觥筹交错中联络感情是中国人常用

酒商贸展

委托ISWR所做的市

产阶层的崛起，未来中国市场对于葡萄酒 的需求会不断上升。”他说道。

的社交手段，一醉方休特别是酒量

场研究报告。据悉，葡萄酒及烈酒商贸展

惊人者往往能得到赞许。所谓“醉翁之意

Asia-Pacific定于今年5月27

该报告预计，从2013至2017年，中

不在酒”（欧阳修），在半醉半醒之间，

至29日在香港举行，届时内业主要品牌均

国葡萄酒消耗量将增加33.8%。增长主要

业务经理也许就能为公司签下合同。

将云集于此。

集中在每瓶零售价介于5至10美元及10至

随着消费能力的提升和生活方式的

葡萄酒的发源地在中西亚，古代已传

20美元的产品，预计其销售量同期升幅分

转变，在传统酒类之外，中国人也喜欢上

入中国。“葡萄美酒夜光杯，欲饮琵琶马

别达到64%及69.48%。与此同时，每瓶

了洋溢着异域风情的葡萄酒，其中尤以红

上催。”就是唐代诗人王翰吟咏葡萄酒的

售价低于5美元的葡萄酒消耗量将会下跌；

葡萄酒为甚。中国（包括香港地区）已成

名句。近代中国曾出产过知名的本土葡萄

每瓶售价高于20美元的增幅则会低于市场

为世界最大的红酒消费市场，去年消耗了

酒品牌。2012年中国已跻身全球第五大葡

平均增速。

18.65亿瓶的红酒，传统葡萄酒消费大国

萄酒生产国，今后还会继续提升葡萄酒产

2012年中国烈酒的消耗量接近全球

法国和意大利则瞠乎其后。2005年以来，

量。目前中国消费者消耗的8成以上静止葡

烈酒总消耗量近40%，每10瓶烈酒就有4

国内消费者对红酒需求快速攀升。2007至

萄酒是国产的。经过10年来每年约25%的

瓶被中国人喝掉，以不到全球1/5的人口消

2013年，红酒消耗量上升了2.75倍，而法

持续增长，预期2013年中国葡萄酒消耗量

耗了全球4成的烈酒，显示中国人喝酒确

国和意大利均有所减少。

将下跌2.2%。国产葡萄酒受到一定影响，

实是海量。问题是其中究竟有多少是公款

而进口葡萄酒的销量仍在上升。

消费，有多少是私人买单？这些烈酒绝大

中国在酒类生产和消费能力上不容 小觑：第五大静止葡萄酒、轻淡葡萄酒及

现任主席夏维尔（

多数是本土出产的白酒。报告显示，2008

汽泡酒市场，第五大葡萄酒生产国，最大

de Eizaguirre）相信，去年中国葡萄酒

至2012年，中国烈酒消耗量上升逾8成，

烈酒市场，第二大干邑市场（仅次于美国

消耗量放缓只是暂时现象，经过一段时间

增长主要集中于由高粱、小麦或大米酿造

市场）。上述数据均出自国际葡萄酒及烈

后，葡萄酒消耗量将恢复增长。“随着中

而成的本地产白酒。预期2013至2017年 间，中国烈酒消耗量将持续上扬，但升幅 会放缓至9%以下。 亚太区消耗了全球最多的烈酒，而非 本地生产的烈酒只占亚洲市场份额2.1%。 报告预期未来5年，此类烈酒的升幅将达 8.9%。伏特加是继白酒之后全球消耗量第 二大的烈酒，2013至2017年其消耗量将 会恢复增长。而白兰地（不包括干邑和雅 文邑）的消耗量杂在2008至2012年大幅 上涨。目前亚太区对于进口洋酒（国际烈 酒）的消耗量不大，尚属国际烈酒品牌的 发展中市场。日本是亚太区最大的烈酒进 口国，对洋酒接受度最高；澳洲、印度、 中国及越南的烈酒进口量也在快速增长。 酒类生产和贸易商乐意看到消费者对 酒的需求在持续上扬，他们相信“杯中自 有黄金屋”。但从健康角度看，饮酒应适 度，贪杯（尤其是烈酒）有害，千万莫贪

中国人也喜欢上了洋溢着异域风情的葡萄酒

杯。

China Economic Review | March 2014

45

专栏

综合与分析 东西两大文化体系的根本差异在于思维模式的不同 文 | 海风

季

羡林先生曾撰文提出“四个文化体 系”的观点。所谓四个文化体系

是指：第一，中国文化体系（也包括日本 文化，但有了改造和发展）；第二，印度 文化体系；第三，古希伯来、埃及、巴比 伦、亚述以至阿拉伯伊斯兰的闪族文化体 系；第四，古希腊、古罗马以至近现代欧 美的欧罗巴文化体系。 形成文化体系的标准是什么？季先 生认为必须具备“有特色、能独立、影响 大”三个基本条件。他又将四个文化体系 再划分为两大文化体系：第一、第二和第 三文化体系的东方文化体系，第四文化体 系的西方文化体系。东西方文化体系的最 大不同点在哪里？季先生认为最根本的不 同表现在思维模式方面，即东方文化体系 的模式是综合的，而西方文化体系是分析 的。所谓综合思维模式就是“既见树木， 又见森林”，而分析的思维模式则是“只

中国戏曲艺术的综合性以京剧最具代表性

见树木，不见森林”。

46

这种根本差别在两大文化体系的诸多

代的神医华佗曾用此法治愈了某位官员的

戏剧表演和意大利的假面喜剧等也具有综

方面都是显而易见的。中国传统文化的核

疑难之症。他故意激怒病家，使其在暴怒

合的特征；而当今流行于美国等地的音乐

心是“天人合一”中医讲“辨证施治”，

状态下吐出黑血数升，沉疴顿时痊愈。

剧也是综合的舞台表演艺术。古希腊“医

重视气候变化规律对人体健康和疾病的影

中国戏曲“至元杂剧出而体制遂定。

学之父”希波克拉底在医学中引入哲学思

响。自然是大宇宙，人体就是小宇宙，小

南戏出而变化更多，于是我国始有纯粹之

辩，强调整体观念，他还写过论述自然环

宇宙必须与大宇宙相协调，才能维持正常

戏曲。”（王国维《宋元戏曲史》）其特

境对人体影响的专著。希波克拉底提出可

运转。《黄帝内经》就提出“五运六气”

点也是“综合”，集对白、歌唱、表演、

用温泉来治疗疾病，成为当今风靡世界的

理论，人体各组织器官的生命活动，与自

舞蹈、音乐、美术、武术、杂技于一体，

SPA（水疗）之滥觞。

然条件息息相关，只有顺应自然的变化，

尤以京剧最具代表性。反观西方的舞台表

季先生对两大文化体系思维模式差

随时进行调节，才能健康长寿。中医将人

演艺术，17世纪以后逐渐从综合走向“分

异的论述颇具启发性，也引出了更多疑

体视为不可分割的整体系统，各器官组织

类化”：专注舞蹈的芭蕾舞剧，专注歌唱

问。如果没有分析的思维模式又何来现代

经络是相互感应的，牵一发而动全身。因

的歌剧，话剧则一般只有念白和表演。芭

科学？人类对于自然的认识也就只会停留

而在治疗时，就可以“头痛医脚”，比

蕾舞剧被归入舞蹈艺术，歌剧则归入音乐

在“前科学”阶段。中医与西医之别，究

如针灸就有这种治疗方法。中医还很重

门类，只有话剧才算是戏剧。

竟是东西文化差异造成的，还是传统医学

视“身”与“心”的关系。《黄帝内经》

东西方文化体系思维模式的差异是

与现代医学之争？综合思维模式是否在西

曰：“心为君主之官，主不明，则十二官

否从来如此，并且势同水火？恐未必尽

方文化体系中就难以立足？两种思维模式

危。”中医因而特别注重养心。中医在临

然。如古希腊的戏剧也都是综合的，包

就一定难以调和？这些都需要更深入细致

床治疗时很早就运用了心理疗法。三国时

含着音乐和舞蹈的元素；欧洲中世纪的

的研究和探索。

China Economic Review | March 2014

看中国

时光荏苒 时间从握着智能手机的指缝中流过 文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

一

天只有24小时，这是颠扑不破的真理， 更不会因为电子时代的到来而发生变

化。然而如何利用时光这一主题却几经变迁， 发生了巨大的转变。 当今时代，似乎每个人都将智能手机或 平板电脑视作生活中不可或缺的一部分，紧紧 地攥在手中，或放置在自己的视线范围内， 寸步不离。至少从这一角度来看，中国已全然 融入了这个世界。毕竟，“电子产品依赖症”

晏格文

可不是哪一个国家的特产，更不分贵贱—富有的或贫穷的， 东方人还是西方人，都不约而同地将愈来愈多的时间耗费在屏 幕前。 在我看来，整日盯着电子屏幕亦非全然是浪费时间，所以 未必就是有害无益。通过这个窗口，人们可以看到更广阔的世 界，探索更深奥的知识。早在爱迪生发明电灯之前，人类社会 就不缺梦想家，当然有些人不懈地进行建设性的思考，而另一 些则只是在做白日梦。 过去的30年间，我将相当部分的时间耗费在了屏幕前。相 比过去阅读纸质书籍，如今我阅读电子书时查阅字典的频率要 高多了。我可以随时停下到维基百科上寻找参考，同时又不会 影响整体的阅读进程。我可以随时发问，随时上网寻找答案。 此种便利让人不可思议，电子产品确实让老百姓乃至整个社会 在诸多方面的效率得到了提升。 然而，电子产品所带来的便捷同样会使人成瘾。马克思 曾经说过，宗教是人民的鸦片，它使人脱离现实，更企图让信 徒们为自己无力改变命运的想法（通常是错误的）寻找合理借 口。如今的美国人可以通过在Netflix网站观赏电影或是电视节 目来打发一天24小时，而中国人则将大量时间投入到了微信互 动上，就好像推特（Twitter）在中国以外地区年轻群体中的普 及程度。 事实上，我十分推崇微信（WeChat）所倡导的沟通方 式，它不仅是打发时间的利器，还为中国人提供了一对一和一 对多等各种互动模式，传送效率远远高于如今已光环褪去的微 博文化。微信正逐步建立起中国人的社区意识（可以是一个也 可以是多个），而它的传播速度远远超出了人们的想象。尽管 如今的微信仍可能遭遇屏蔽，但这算不上是最大的问题。毕竟 正如传播学家麦克卢汉（Marshall 微信正逐步建立起中国人的社区意识

McLuhan）所言，“媒介

即是讯息。”

China Economic Review | March 2014

47

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China Economic Review | March 2014

Q&A: A state-owned hospitality giant turns to the middle class

Q&A: Chinese universities lead their emerging world peers

FEBRUARY 2014 VOL. 25, NO. 2

China Mobile is learning to live with WeChat and Weibo

MARCH 2014 VOL. 25, NO. 3

www.chinaeconomicreview.com

Regulatory surprises await Chinese miners in Greenland

Feeding China

Overpriced and overcrowded

Keeping 1.3 billion people full at mealtimes is now a global matter

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