CER Jun. 2015

JUNE 2015 VOL. 26, NO. 2 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

Contentious contender ওਆLjಎऄLj຃๟຃‫ݥ‬

2015ฤ6Ꮬఓ

China Economic Review | June 2015

03

EDITOR’S NOTE | 编者的话

JUNE 2015 VOL. 26, NO. 2 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2015ฤ6Ꮬఓ

Contentious contender ওਆLjಎऄLj຃๟຃‫ݥ‬

Editor-at-large ߲‫ ཽۈ‬Graham Earnshaw Co-Publisher ೊ੝߲‫ ཽۈ‬Alex Wong Shiu Chung

Executive Editor ᓍ‫ ܠ‬Graham Earnshaw Deputy Executive Editor ঃᓍ‫ ܠ‬Gao Fei Associate Editor ‫ ૷ܠ‬Rainy Chen, Skye Sun

Art Editors ගၣ‫ ૷ܠ‬Jason Wong Sales Director ሾ၉ᔐପ Ralph Wang Account Managers ሾ၉ளಯ Jerry Cheng Distribution Manager खቲளಯ Seana Liu Publisher ߲‫ۈ‬૦৩ China Economic Review Publishing Address ࢐ᒍ The Plaza Building, 102 Lee High Road London, SE13 5PT, England

the flows of aid investment funds and reduce the influence and impact of such existing institutions as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. We examine the sudden rise in the new

01 Printing Limited

bank’s profile and its implications for China’s increasingly active

Suite M, 3/F, Tower 3,

projection of its own influence out in the rest of the region. We also look at a number of dynamic areas of the economy, including gyrating commodities, the explosive stock market and the

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Editorial Department ‫ݝ૷ܠ‬

tal and cultural with this stress this time on the new Asia Infra-

Des Voeux Road Central,

448 Kwun Tong Road, Kowloon

Shanghai ࿟਱

developments in the Chinese world, economic, environmen-

Public Bank Centre, 120

Kwun Tong Industrial Centre,

Hongkong ሧভ

I

n this issue of China Economic Review, we look as usual at

structure Investment Bank, which has the potential to change

ISSN 2073-2570

段时间的股票市场大跌或大涨，以局外人来看，都是寻常事。撇 开短期的涨跌，长期而言，资本市场的走向，会与宏观经济的走 势统一起来。这两者之间，短期出现背离是可能的，甚至会存在悖论， 但“晴雨表”的特征将在一个更长的周期里体现出来。 对于市场的走向，主流意见所期许的是“慢牛”。而针对宏观经 济的走势，一个更理性的态度，恐怕是在正视当下较大的下行压力的同 时，也能够对长远的未来有乐观的期待。看待经济形势，不能短视，不 能仅仅就经济谈经济。有智慧的观察者，当以历史与政治的眼光看待经 济形势。 必须承认，当前经济下行的压力不容小视。这种压力的形成是多 方面的。经济发展进入新常态、新旧增长动力尚未完成转换、外部需求 收缩并与内部多种矛盾混合等，都给经济发展造成压力。但从整体情况 看，下行并不是单一的图景。大国经济情况复杂，比如从不同区域来 看，就存在走势分化的问题。 事实上，这种下行的压力，也正是未来中国经济存在的两大特征 之一。当中国经济进入了一个中速增长期之后，经济增速下滑问题可能 会一直存在，与此同时，解决过程则表现为转型与调整。理解这两大特 征，有助于观察者以历史与政治的眼光来做判断。 短期看一个问题，与中长期去看，看到的情况很有可能就不一 样。这样不拘泥一时一地的视角，便是有历史感的，也是有政治眼光 的。换个表述来说，这其实也是在坚持“两点论”。坚持用“两点论” 看待中国经济形势，就能够清楚地认识到，当下经济形势大体平稳，有 序运行，这是主要方面。不能将次要矛盾当成主要矛盾，否则就会打乱 仗。说得更透彻些，无视当前的下行压力，是掩耳盗铃；倘若被下行压 力吓倒，则又是缺少历史感的表现。无论如何，中国经济有着良好基 础，中国的发展也有着很强的韧性。这么多年，政府在宏观调控方面拥 有诸多政策储备，能够应对各种可能出现的风险和挑战。当然，着眼长 远来求解当下面临的矛盾与问题，非常有必要。过去调控当中的诸多经 验与教训，都一再证明了这一点，所谓稳字当头，道理也在这里。 注重中长期的健康发展，努力实现中国经济的可持续发展，这是 中国经济发展的长期目标所在。

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troubled property sector. On the cultural side, we continue our exploration of the animation world with a look at the world’s latest virtual love, Baymax, star of Big Hero 6.

China Economic Review | June 2015

03

目录 CONTENT

7

16

Cover story Contentious contender China’s new development bank could be a regional boon if Beijing puts politics aside

14

ቤ਋‫ފ‬

The House View

10 网银信贷渠道

07 Cereal dysfunction

电商及P2P成新宠

News Highlights 14 ௡ୡ 12 Newsbriefs

ॖෂ৺ူ 24 搅局，盘活，孰是孰非

23

28 和平的战争？

Cover Story 16 Contentious contender

27 21 The peaceful war?

ᆪછ࢐ᅄ 36 超能陆战队 萌翻世界的英雄范 38 迪士尼的新时代 46 创意高科技孵化器 让文创商业生动如诗

04

China Economic Review | June 2015

Culture Map 32 Big hero 6 The loveliest hero in the world 42 Creative hi-tech incubator

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2014

目录 CONTENT

78

24 ॖෂ৺ူ

୩௜Lj๤૚Ljၙဵၙऻ

84

ळ࢐‫ޘ‬ᓜᄌ

Real Estate Focus

50 武汉领衔全球最活跃 新建购物中心市场第一名

51 London’s tech city will see residential prices increase

53 上海丰树商业城顺利封顶

52 Mapletree celebrates topping out of Mapletree Business City

54 缔造生活品位成就城市梦想

56 Stanford residences 58 Service with a fragrance

࿜ኧᏔ୴Ꮉ Business Education Focus

62 向毛泽东学企业品牌管理

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88

66 Extending product lines up and down in quality

72 2015中国市场海外置业展望

Economy

જᄌ 84“防弹”泡沫

68 China 2015 international property outlook

86“了解中国经济的10本书

76 Kink goes viral

88 中国将陷入中等收入陷阱

78 Spotting sprouts 82 Bullet-proof bubble

90 品牌精致化时代来临

ఘᒦਪ 93 跌宕起伏 06

60 An MBA abroad gives you the edge

China Economic Review | June 2015

90

Look at China 92 Ups and downs

THE HOUSE VIE W

Cereal dysfunction China’s grain self sufficiency policy lives on after its official demise

O

n paper and in pronouncements, the contentious policies that regulate China’s great waves of grain have undergone a sea change in the last two years. 2014 saw reports claiming China had axed its contentious grain self-sufficiency policy, and this year officials were said to signal a policy shift away from just bumper harvests to focus more on food safety and sustainability.

In practice, though, these policy bombshells have proved more bluster than boom.

Officials recognize that China’s grains sector is subject to policies that encourage overproduction, inefficiency, wasted stockpiles, elevated prices and, perversely, mounting imports of the same crops the country already has too much of as prices abroad fall.

They also remain hamstrung by political tradition, fear of over-dependence on imports, systemic momentum and the often contradictory interests of the country’s rural and urban regions.

The result is regular tides of conflicting policy overtures, muddled further by jargon and arcane categories that obscure what “self-sufficiency” actually means. Despite loud calls for modernization, government insistence on continued supply without regard for demand could prove unsustainable.

“Chinese authorities are now acknowledging that eleven straight increases in grain production since 2004 came at high financial and environmen-

tal cost,” said Fred Gale, a senior economist at the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.

Gale said that because prices for rice, wheat and corn in China were much higher than international prices, import demand was strong despite large stockpiles of each grain.

There is one exception, though: Soybeans.

Tough beans In keeping with a trend of rapidly rising annual imports after the global food crisis of 2007-8, China imported about 74 million tons of soybeans in 2014, according to USDA records. At roughly 84% of its total supply, the dominance of soybean imports is the result of tariff cuts made during the mid-90s when China was negotiating accession to the World Trade Organization, according to a report by the Institute for Agricul-

ture and Trade Policy. The vast majority went to feed the country’s swelling swine stocks, which have ballooned in response to growing demand from the middle class for more meat.

That trend is expected to continue, and potential growth in feedgrain imports would dovetail nicely with the recommendations of last year’s Central Number One Document, an annual batch of policy guidelines released by China’s State Council. In 2014, the State Council called for grain production to stabilize at about 550 million tons by 2020, well below the previous year’s harvest of 602 million tons. It also told officials to pay more attention to food safety and quality.

In late March of this year, officials at the China Development Forum in Beijing echoed those sentiments. Deputy director Han Jun of China’s top rural policy decision-making body,

China Economic Review | June 2015

07

THE HOUSE VIE W

the Office of Rural Work Leading Group, recognized the price distortions in the country’s domestic grain markets and pointed out that subsidies were nearing the limit China accepted when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.

Qian Keming, a senior economist at the Ministry of Agriculture, told the audience that 85% grain self-sufficiency in 2020 would be in line with the government’s grain security goals—an apparent 10% drop from the original target of 95% established in the mid-90s.

But when it came to grain production goals, Qian said, “we recommend still maintaining the present level, at

08

China Economic Review | June 2015

roughly 610 million tons or so.” That would actually be an increase over the 2014 harvest of 607 million tons, which alone should bring the demise of China’s grain security policy into question. The percentage he gave for grain sufficiency in 2020 also warrants more scrutiny, and Qian’s phrasing in its original Mandarin Chinese is key to understanding that figure’s implications: “grain security” (ଂ๋Ҿඇ liangshi anquan) applies to a category which, from its inception, included all varieties of grain. And then some.

Rectifying grains Hu Ruifa, a former member of the

Center of Chinese Agriculture Policy now at the Beijing Institute of Technology, said that China’s original grain security goals didn’t take the role of feed grains into consideration. Hu said the government had since shifted to an emphasis on “edible grain security” ( ੨ଂҾඇ kouliang anquan), including rice, wheat and corn but excluding soybeans.

That means Qian’s self-sufficiency figure of 85% for 2020, deployed in the context of more general “grain security”, matters insofar as it departs from the current level of grain self-sufficiency. That takes everything the Chinese government considers “grains” into account, including soybeans (and even potatoes).

By this yardstick China’s self-sufficiency rate in 2014 was only 87.9%, theoretically limiting grain import growth to just 2.9% between now and 2020. And based on Qian’s 720 million ton estimate for demand in 2020, imports in that year would account for only about 108 million tons of China’s total annual grain supply, up around 35 million tons from imports in 2014.

That is no small amount, but it does not signal an end to grain self-sufficiency. Because price floors for rice and grain are more formalized and statutory than that for corn, import gains are more likely to come from the latter. But don’t expect corn to follow suit with the fast and loose soybean sector.

“The thinking on corn by Chinese officials has loosened up,” said Gale at the USDA. “There is an increasingly prevalent view that some corn could be imported, if necessary, because it is used as animal feed, not staple food.

However, imported corn will only be permitted to play a supplementary role

THE HOUSE VIE W

to domestic corn. Chinese officials are on guard against corn or any other subsector becoming dominated by imports and foreign companies, as has happened with soybeans.”

Go big, group up Self-sufficiency may remain holy writ for the mainland’s grains, but that doesn’t rule out reform altogether.

While it allows for only a minor role in China’s food supply for imports, the 2015 edition of the Central Number One Document also outlines ambitious plans to restructure the farming sector by fostering the growth of large-scale agribusiness on par with that seen in the US. That drive will be challenged by limitations on land rights over agricultural land in the countryside that farmers only own the working rights to. William Niebur, vice president for hybrid seed producer DuPont Pioneer North Asia, said land reform would prove fundamental to the creation of larger farms in China. It just won’t happen all at once. “[L]and reform will progress at a differential rate in Northeast and Northwest or the Central River Valleys,” Niebur said. “It’s going to move province by province and within the provinces in a unique and different way.”

That reform will accommodate the additional pressure to urbanize, resulting in an outflow from the countryside that will shrink the available labor supply, he said, driving mechanization and higher technology utilization. It wouldn’t be the first such tectonic shift for agriculture since Niebur first visited China.

“I can remember traveling here in the 90’s as a research leader for Pioneer and was amazed at just how poor

the road systems were, and how loosely connected rural environments were to urban environments,” Niebur said.

That soon changed as the leadership pushed forward infrastructure improvements to rural-urban connectivity and productivity upgrades accomplished through hybridizing crops, increased fertilization and rudimentary tillage.

Reforms from 2004-2006 saw a gradual end to China’s agricultural tax and the introduction of some subsidies for mechanization, which Niebur said let farmers know they would no longer be subject to a heavier tax burden than urban residents. The subsequent introduction of price floors for key crops – rice, wheat and corn – helped make farming them an attractive enough prospect that production soared, even as prices have become seriously distorted in recent years.

Niebur said that the current price disparity was a problem—one he expected would be dealt with. “At least in my thirty years in working in agriculture, everything that I have seen that has been unsustainable eventually stopped and it stopped by design, or it

stopped by necessity.”

Meat over wheat Change is coming to China’s agricultural sector. Where exactly the farmers who have become dependent on subsidized grain prices ultimately fit into the mechanized, mass-farming future envisioned by policymakers isn’t entirely clear. But the central government’s urbanization policy clearly indicates that authorities want rural residents to move to the nation’s cities.

Once there, demand for rice and wheat are expected to shrink as meat consumption will continue to drive feedgrain production up. That could in turn make feedgrains a national security priority as corn and soybean-fed pigs, chicken and cattle become growing staples of the typical mainland Chinese diet.

Such demand could conceivably force China to open up to an increase in imports, particularly for corn. But so long as self-sufficiency predominates in agricultural policymakers’ minds, any grain imports will only ever supplement a mostly home-grown supply.

China Economic Review | June 2015

09

新观察

网银信贷渠道 电商及P2P成新宠 文章及图表来源:艾瑞咨询

根

据艾瑞咨询最新发布的《2015年 中国网络信贷用户调研报告》显

示：2014年中国网民申请贷款的情况中， 41.0%的网民申请过贷款，银行网络渠道 成为最常使用的贷款渠道；P2P平台和电 商平台贷款渠道也占有一席之地，近5成的 网民表示P2P平台贷款综合成本较高但可 以承受，低利息和分期政策灵活是选择电 商平台申请消费贷款的主要原因。

网络银行成为最常使用信贷服务 渠道，电商、P2P平台成新宠 2014年中国网民申请贷款情况分布 中，有41.0%的网民表示申请过贷款。其 中，通过线上渠道申请贷款占比30.3%， 线下渠道申请贷款占比10.6%。而线上申 请贷款渠道中，银行网络渠道占比最大，

加上互联网的快速发展，银行网络渠道贷

未来，随着电商平台、P2P小额信贷平台

达到13.2%；其次是电商平台，占比达

款的效率不断提高，因此银行网络渠道成

征信系统的不断完善，将有利于促进其信

8.2%；P2P小额信贷占比3.1%；金融搜

为网民最常使用的贷款渠道；此外，随着

贷业务的规范化发展。

索平台占比达3.0%；其他金融机构线上申

互联网金融的快速发展，电商平台、P2P

请贷款渠道占比2.9%。

小额信贷平台贷款门槛低，速度快，网民

银行作为传统贷款渠道，贷款风险

个性化的小额贷款需求不断得到满足，并

小，利息较低，具有较完善的征信系统，

逐步成为网民最常使用的网络贷款渠道。

2014年中国网民申请贷款及最常使用渠道分布情况 银行网络渠道

2014年中国网民对P2P平台 2014年中国P2P小额信贷用户 贷款综合成本的评价情况 更换贷款渠道的最看重因素

13.2%

电商平台

较高， 可以承受

8.2%

P2P小额信贷

一般

25.9%

3.0%

其他金融机构线上渠道

2.9%

线下渠道

申请过贷款： 41.0%

10.6%

没申请过贷款

59.0% 0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

较高，无其他 渠道，只能承受

20.4%

较低

4.6% 0

占比 (%)

10

27.8%

资金到账 速度更快

3.1%

金融搜索平台

49.1% 利率更低 16.7%

手续更简便 有政府牌照 的正规渠道

近5成网民表示P2P平台贷款综合 成本较高，但可承受，且更加关 注资金到账速度 2014年中国网民选择电商平台进行消费贷款而非信用卡 的主要原因 39.1%

分期政策更灵活

17.5%

额度更高

17.0%

15.7%

想购买的商品或服务 不能使用信用卡

15.7%

消费场景与消费金融 结合紧密

33.4% 26.2% 12.9% 24.7% 11.3%

不，我更习惯使用 信用卡

18.8% 18.8%

亲友推荐

12.0%

另一家机构 更有名气

12.0%

其它 0.3% 0.3%

10% 20% 30%

0

50%

0 占比 (%)

10% 原因 (%)

20%

30%

样本： N=3515；于2015年3月通过iClick社区联机调研获得。

样本： N=375；于2015年3月通过iClick社区联机调研获得。

样本： N=657；于2015年3月通过iClick社区联机调研获得。

©2015.3 iResearch Inc.

©2015.3 iResearch Inc.

©2015.3 iResearch Inc.

www.iresearch. com.cn

China Economic Review | June 2015

www.iresearch. com.cn

40%

最主要原因 (%)

www.iresearch. com.cn

新观察

2014年中国网民对P2P贷款综合成 本的评价中，49.1%的网民认为成本较

关于P2P平台网络借款

高，但是可以承受；25.9%的网民认为 成本一般；20.4%的网民认为较高，但

P2P是英文peer to peer的缩写，意即“个人对个人”。网络信贷起源于英国，

因为没有其他能获得贷款的渠道，只能承

随后发展到美国、德国和其他国家，其典型的模式为：网络信贷公司提供平台，

受。2014年中国P2P网贷用户更换贷款

由借贷双方自由竞价，撮合成交。资金借出人获取利息收益，并承担风险；资金

渠道的最看重因素中，最主要是还款利率

借入人到期偿还本金，网络信贷公司收取中介服务费。

低，占比达到27.8%，其次是资金到账速

P2P网贷最大的优越性，是使传统银行难以覆盖的借款人在虚拟世界里能充

度更快，占比达到16.7%；手续更简便和

分享受贷款的高效与便捷。网贷平台数量近两年在国内迅速增长，迄今比较活跃

有政府牌照的正规渠道排名第三，占比均

的有350家左右，而总量截止到2014年底已有2000多家。

为15.7%。 中国网民贷款看重的最主要因素有隐

2013，以自融高息为主的风险爆发期

私保护、资金到账速度及贷款金额等，因

2013年起，网络借贷系统模板的开发更加成熟，甚至在淘宝店花几百元就可以

此对于贷款平台成本而言，虽然有近5成用

买到前期的网络借贷平台模板。由于2013年国内各大银行开始收缩贷款，很多

户表示较高，但是仍然可以接受；另一方

不能从银行贷款的企业或者在民间有高额高利贷借款的投机者们，从P2P网络借

面，利率更低会促使P2P小额信贷用户更

贷平台上看到了商机，他们花费10万左右购买网络借贷系统模板，然后租个办公

换贷款渠道，这是显而易见的，有利于控

室简单进行装修就开始上线圈钱。这阶段国内网络借贷平台从240家左右猛增至

制用户的贷款成本，此外，资金到账速度

600家左右，2013年底月成交金额在110亿左右，有效投资人达到了9至13万人

更快是P2P小额信贷用户更换贷款渠道的

之间。

第二大因素，由此可见，网络借贷用户更 加关注资金到账速度。

这阶段上线平台的共同特点是以月息4%左右的高利吸引追求高息的投资 人，这些平台通过网络融资后偿还银行贷款、民间高利贷或者投资自营项目。由 于自融高息加剧了平台本身的风险，2013年10月份这些网络借贷平台集中爆发

低利息、分期政策灵活是网民选 择电商平台申请消费贷的最主要 原因

了提现危机。其具体原因分析如下：10月份国庆7天小长假过后，很多平台的资

2014年中国网民选择电商平台进行

立刻出现挤兑危机，从2013年10月到2013年末，大约75家平台出现倒闭、跑路

消费贷款而非信用卡的原因中，利息更低

金提现积累到了几百万以上，由于这些平台本身没有准备或者无法筹集现金应对 提现，造成追求高息的投资人集体心理恐慌，集中进行提现，使这些自融的平台 或者不能提现的情况，涉及总资金在20亿左右。

成为最主要原因，占比达到22.9%，其次 是分期政策更灵活，占比达到18.3%，额

2014年至今，以规范监管为主的政策调整期

度更高占比达到16.4%；有18.9%的用户

从2014年起，国家表明了鼓励互联网金融创新的态度，并在政策上对P2P网络

表示更习惯选择信用卡。

借贷平台给予了大力支持，使很多始终关注网络借贷平台而又害怕政策风险的企

因此，艾瑞咨询认为：一方面，电商

业家和金融巨头开始尝试进入互联网金融领域，组建自己的P2P网络借贷平台。

平台凭借自身优势，将优质的产品及服务

2014年P2P网络借贷平台集中上线期在8月，据统计，截止于2014年底，

与消费信贷相结合，并提供更低的利息、

全国P2P网络借贷平台每月资金成交量已经超过300亿，平台数量达到1300家左

灵活的分期政策以及高额度的消费贷，吸

右，有效投资人达50万人。

引用户选择电商平台进行消费贷款，不仅

2015年的P2P平台，毫无疑问将面临更规范的政府与市场监管。

提高用户消费时的便捷性，而且提高了平 台商品销量及用户粘性；另一方面，仍然

艾瑞咨询集团 (iResearch)，成立于2002年，以“洞察互联网的力量”为理念，

有18.9%的用户表示更习惯选择信用卡，

是一家专注于网络媒体、电子商务、网络游戏、无线增值等新经济领域，深入研

主要在于对电商推出的消费信贷业务资质

究和了解消费者行为，并为网络行业及传统行业客户提供数据产品服务和研究咨

存在疑虑，且不能实现线下消费刷卡的需

询服务的专业机构。基于个人电脑、智能手机、平板电脑、智能电视等不同终端

求，且能够满足所有线上消费，使用范围

上数百万级用户行为监测样本的互联网收视率数据，其研究院每年发布超过100

较电商消费信贷广，因此更习惯使用信用

份的互联网市场研究权威报告。

卡。

China Economic Review | June 2015

11

NEWS ROUNDUP

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS New State Council plan pledges manufacturing revitalization Beijing has released a blueprint for enhancements to its manufacturing sector, citing it as the “key to creating a new driver of economic growth” for China, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a statement on the State Council’s website. The plan, officially titled “Made in China 2025”, comes amid a slump in demand that has hammered many of the country’s factories even as they face growing environmental and resource constraints, as well as rising labor costs. The plan pledged to encourage innovation and raise efficiency in ten high-tech industrial sectors, though it stopped short of providing details on exactly how.

Stock boom a boon for China’s government, state-owned enterprises The greatest windfall from the ongoing stock market rally in China has been the

Chinese government, with the market value of the nearly 1,000 firms listed in Shenzhen and Shanghai, in which it owns stakes, to double to RMB20.19 trillion (US$3.26 trillion) over the past year, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Beijing has repeatedly encouraged the rally with upbeat editorials and commentaries from state media and supportive statements from China’s securities regulator asserting the upswing is justified. “Once the SOEs expand their market capitalization, it’d be much easier for Beijing to carry out mergers and restructuring for them,” said Yang Delong, a fund manager at China Southern Fund.

State telecom firms to cut mobile data prices in China by 20-35% China’s state-owned wireless carriers have announced cuts to their mobile data prices and plans to boost data speeds this year in response to government pressure to lower barriers

for internet access, Reuters reported. China Mobile (0941.HKG, CHL. NYSE), the country’s biggest wireless carrier by subscribers, said it would slash mobile data prices by 35% or more per megabyte by year’s end; China Unicom (0762.HKG, CHU. NYSE) by 20% or more; China Telecom Corp (0728.HKG, CHA.NYSE) by 30% on average. The cuts could spur more subscribers in the world’s largest smartphone market to take advantage of 4G contracts.

One fifth of China’s wind-generated power being wasted by state grid operators State grid operators are wasting enough electricity to run Beijing for 40 days by intentionally delaying the hook-up of China’s wind farms and cutting back on purchases of wind power, Reuters reported, citing official data. In the first quarter of 2015 this strategy, known as curtailment, doubled from a year earlier to 10.7 billion kilowatt-hours, or roughly a fifth of total wind power generated in China.

State grid operators are reluctant to connect wind farms in remote areas so long as their profit margins on renewable energy lag behind those of coalgenerated power.

China adopts IMF accounting standards in reserve-currency push for yuan China has adopted accounting standards endorsed by the International Monetary Fund for its latest balance

12

China Economic Review | June 2015

NEWS ROUNDUP

of payments figures as it pushes for the fund to grant the yuan reservecurrency status, Bloomberg reported, citing a statement posted on the website of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The adjustment, for which no reason was officially given, means that China’s first-quarter current-account surplus is the same as the deficit under the financial and capital heads. Beijing has been pushing for inclusion of the yuan in the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies this year; in 2010 it was deemed to not be “freely usable” in trade and finance.

Baijiu brewers hit with hangover following end of government bulk orders China’s baijiu giants are stumbling

their way through a hangover as firms attempt to find new markets for their sorghum-based liquor after an era dominated by bulk government orders came to an end as Beijing removed budgets for high-end liquor at official banquets, Reuters reported. Top producer Kweichow Moutai (600519.

SHA) saw total receivables jump to an all-time high of about RMB3 billion (US$484 million) in the first quarter this year, up 500% from a year earlier.

Now manufacturers of the spirit have to get individual retailers and retail chains to buy their product, rather than serving essentially as logistics channels for bulk orders.

Dalian Wanda, China Vanke form development and land-pur-

chasing partnership Top China property developers China Vanke (2202.HKG, 000002.SHE) and Dalian Wanda Group (3699.HKG) have formed a strategic partnership for cooperation on joint project development and land purchases, South China Morning Post reported. “The golden era for China’s property market has ended and the silver era has started. In the face of new challenges, there’s no single company that has all the resources or strengths required by the market,” said Vanke Chief Executive Yu Liang. Dalian Wanda Chairman Wang Jianlin teased further plans: “We are in discussion about something bigger, which might involve hundreds of billions of yuan,” he said. “But we cannot disclose further details at this stage.”

China Economic Review | June 2015

13

聚焦

中经评论聚焦 国务院制出台新计划，承诺振兴 制造业 据华尔街日报报道，援引国务院网站声 明，北京已经发布了加强中国制造业的规 划，并称其为“创造中国经济增长新引擎 的关键”。这一规划的官方名称为“中国 制造2025”，其发布之际正值需求下滑之 时，而需求下滑已使许多国家的工厂遭受 重创，即便这些工厂正面临环境、资源约 束不断增加，以及劳动力成本不断上升的 问题。尽管该规划没有确切说明如何实施 的具体细节，但其就十大高新技术产业领 域，承诺进行鼓励创新、并提高效率。

股市繁荣对中国政府和国有企业 是件好事 据华尔街日报报道，从中国持续的股市反 弹看，最令人意外的是深沪两地近千家上 间，市值增加了一倍，达到20.19万亿人

国家电网运营商浪费了中国风力 发电总量的五分之一

民币（3.26万亿美元）。由于官方媒体乐

路透社报道，援引官方数据，即使中国风

观的社论和评论加之中国证监会声称股市

力发电厂有意延迟连接、削减风能购买

回升合理这一支撑性声明，使得北京一再

量，国家电网运营商浪费的电量仍能供北

中国在推进人民币储备货币上采 取国际货币基金组织会计标准

鼓励股市反弹。中国南方基金基金经理杨

京运转40天。在2015年第一季度，这一节

彭博社报道，援引国家外汇管理局发布的

德龙说“一旦国有企业扩大其市值，那么

能策略使可用千瓦时比去年翻了一倍，达

声明，在启动资金来确保人民币的储备货

北京对其进行并购和重组就容易多了。”

到了107亿千瓦时，大约是中国全年风能

币地位时，中国就已经采取国际货币基金

产量的五分之一。而只要再生资源的利润

组织支持的会计准则来应对最近的国际收

率低于燃煤发电的利润率，国家电网运营

支差额数据。中国没有就这一调整给出任

商就不愿联系偏远地区的风力发电厂。

何官方解释，而这一调整意味着中国第一

市公司都由中国政府持股，且在过去一年

中国国有电信公司移动数据资费 下调20-35% 据路透社报道，迫于中国政府降低互联网

但是眼下我们不能透露进一步的细节。”

季度经常账户余额与金融和资本下的赤字 相同。今年北京已经推进了国际货币基金

布降低移动数据资费，并将于今年提高数

大连万达和中国万科建立发展和 土地收购伙伴关系

据传输速度。作为中国最大无线运营商，

南华早报报道，中国房地产开发商巨头中

而2010年，在贸易和金融领域，这还不能

中国移动（0941.HKG，CHL.NYSE）

国万科（2202.HKG,

被视为“可自由使用”。

用户数量最多，其将于年底降低移动数据

大连万达集团（3699.HKG）在合作开

资费，降幅为每兆字节35%或35%以上；

发项目和土地收购方面已经形成战略合作

中国偏爱南美秘鲁合作伙伴

中国联通（0762.HKG, CHU.NYSE）降

伙伴关系。万科董事长郁亮说：“中国房

金融时报报道，援引学者的分析，中国正

幅为20%或20%以上；中国电信（0728.

地产的黄金时代已经结束，白银时代已经

向多样化渠道发展，由南美转向秘鲁和社

HKG, CHA.NYSE）平均降幅为30%。这

开启。面对新的挑战，没有一家公司拥有

会主义倾向不明显的其他国家。四川西南

一降价措施使世界最大的智能手机市场的

市场所需的资源和优势。”大连万达集团

科技大学拉美国家分析学者李仁芳称人们

用户能够使用4G网络。

董事长王健林梳理了其进一步计划，他

担心中国以产品做担保的贷款模式。委内

接入障碍的压力，国有无线运营商已经宣

14

说：“我们正在讨论数千亿元的大计划，

China Economic Review | June 2015

000002.SHE）和

组织的储备货币篮子中人民币的竞争力。

聚焦

瑞拉已经向中国借了500多亿美元，但是

落，并且要求保护中国经济以及对中国经

环境中筹资资金。据报道，天水水泥集团

又面临着原油价格大幅下滑的压力。李仁

济起着重要作用的各个产业。这一新法律

2014年的盈利相当于前一年盈利的三分之

芳称借钱给右翼政府要安全些。

草案强调粮食安全、网络安全以及其他一

一。惠誉国际评级新加坡高级总监卡莱 • 皮

系列永恒性问题，但是没有对习近平主席

雷说道:“中国政府对这一行业的举措显而

国务院将香烟税提高至11%

领导的党的新国家安全委员会更名或者对

易见—他们想要整合。”

华尔街日报报道，援引国务院的通知，由

其作用作出解释。香港大学法律教授傅华

于资金从批发商流向顾客，中国的香烟税

伶称，目前还不清楚国家安全委员会所具

上海官员配偶禁止进入私营企业

已经由5%上升到11%。国务院没有解释

有的法律地位，也不清楚其权力如何受到

纽约时报报道，援引市政府官方网站上的

这一举措，但是新的税收政策可能有助于

法律规制。

通知，上海市政府已经宣布了一系列规 则，旨在禁止地方高级官员进入私营企

挫败世界43%香烟生产地和3亿多吸烟者

业，以及配偶和子女在上海经商。这些规

期增加更多的税收收入。与2014年同期

白酒酒商面临政府大宗订单结束 所带来的遗留问题

9.3%的增长率相比，国家财政收入在今年

路透社报道，由于北京在正式宴会上取消

家庭在上海经商，上海以外其他地区高级

第一季度又上涨了3.9%。

了高端白酒的预算，大宗政府订单主导的

官员的子女仍然能进入私营企业。近年

时代结束，之后许多公司试图为其高粱

来，许多官员及其商业伙伴的家庭已经将

大陆上市公司更名，向科技领域 转变

酒寻求新市场，而中国白酒巨头正艰难

其公司迁往内地，远离上海、北京这样的

地应对这一问题。头号生产商贵州茅台

知名城市。

金融时报报道，在持续的股市反弹中，这

（600519.SHA）见证了今年第一季度应

一战略已经取得了丰厚的回报，中国近

收账款总额达到3亿人民币（4.8亿美元）

100家上市公司变更了名称，多数反映了

这样一个历史最高点，比去年同期增长了

到2020年，对页岩气开采企业的 补贴将减半

向科技领域转变的趋势。“这些公司想让

500%。现在生产商不得不通过个体零售

彭博社报道，援引中国财政部的声明，北

投资者知道，他们正在告别原来的业务，

商和连锁店来购买他们的产品，而不是作

京将会削减对页岩气开采企业的补贴，

移师新兴产业，这就像美国20世纪90年

为大宗订单的物流渠道。

现在的补贴标准为0.4元/平方米（0.06美

所在地国家的吸烟行为，同时在经济萧条

代，每家公司都开始自称网络公司，”华

则似乎并不是为了阻止全国其他地方官员

元），2016-2018年的补贴标准为0.3元/

泰证券股票策略师姚未未表示，他称多数

中国水泥业最先见证整合

平方米，2019-2020年的补贴标准为0.2

更名不仅仅是表面上的美化。

彭博社报道，中国水泥业似乎已经进入

元/平方米。国内能源主管人员已经敦促政

整合时代，中国天瑞水泥集团（1252.

府扩大当前的补贴直到2020年或者2030

新的国家安全法律要求保护经济 利益

HKG）将其在中国天水水泥集团（0691.

年，以此来刺激增长，但是由于这一行业

HKG）的股份增加到28.16%，这足以

已经面临复杂的地质开采条件、有限的勘

南华早报报道，援引中国立法机关官方网

让惠誉国际评级将这一举措视为控制权变

探权和基础设施缺乏所产生的一系列问

站上发布的该草案全文，一项广阔的有关

更。天水水泥集团已经采取将少数股权卖

题，中国已经降低了其在2020年的页岩气

国家安全的新法律草案涉及社会各个角

给公司的战略，以此在日益激烈的竞争

生产目标，大概为300亿立方米，约为原 有目标的三分之一。

中国流动资金充足的银行因寻找 借贷款人而压力重重 南华早报报道，援引金融分析师，内地银 行缺乏在特定领域有资格的贷款人，他们 正试图利用中央银行降低存款准备金率所 释放的1.2万亿人民币的流动资金（1935 亿美元）。经济下滑，债务累积，私营企 业甚至国营公司的违约威胁滋生，这意味 着，假设政府保障其投资，银行贷款给国 有企业这一久经考验的策略也将行不通。

China Economic Review | June 2015

15

COVER STORY

Contentious contender China’s new development bank could be a regional boon if Beijing puts politics aside

16

China Economic Review | June 2015

COVER STORY

B

ritain, longtime partner in an Atlantic-spanning “special relationship” with the US, threw its ally and the world for a loop in March by announcing it would apply to join the new Beijing-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The move opened the floodgates, and by the time the deadline for submissions arrived a total 56 prospective members had thrown their lot in with China’s new international financial institution, much to America’s chagrin.

But if Washington wants to pin the blame anywhere for what is now widely viewed as an unmitigated diplomatic implosion, it might want to think back to November, when the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) offered to do an exotic dance for the US Congress if it would just pass a much-needed and long-overdue set of reforms.

“I will do belly-dancing if that’s what it takes to get the US to ratify,” IMF Chief Christine Lagarde told the AFP shortly after Republicans finished cleaning up in the latest round of legislative elections. That conservative victory had further dimmed hopes of pushing through measures doubling the IMF’s financial resources and increasing the voting power of emerging economies like China, which has long felt it is underrepresented at said US-backed institution and at the Japan-led Asia Development Bank.

Thus was American ignominy sown at home, and while it is far from clear exactly what kind of impact the AIIB will ultimately have, a subscribed capitalization of US$50 billion – with a view to doubling that figure – has made it too big to ignore. Making its debut on a regional stage occupied by (presumably) more cautious, bureaucratic organizations like the Washington-backed World Bank and the Tokyo-controlled ADB, Beijing’s new financial champion offers China the chance to prove its foreign policy mettle afresh by advancing both regional and national interests through a multilateral institution of its own making. Yet a guarded approach will be needed in analyzing the impact the AIIB has on developing countries’ growth—as is already true of more august institutions.

“Countries that have developed successfully such as South Korea and China generally say that they would have devel-

China Economic Review | June 2015

17

COVER STORY

oped with or without the World Bank, but that they did so faster and with fewer costly mistakes than if the Bank had not existed,” said David Dollar, 20-year veteran of the World Bank in Asia who is now a senior fellow with the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. “To shorten the development path is a useful contribution, but in my view it would be a mistake to attribute too much development success to the World Bank.”

Arresting developments The world was was engulfed in war when the IMF and what would eventually become the World Bank were created in 1944 in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire—though the Republic of China was a founding member of both.

The IMF was created to lend money to countries that encountered severe financial difficulties, while the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development was intended to help fund the reconstruction of a war-torn Europe and provide investment in developing countries with an eye toward their

becoming developed.

That second ambition hasn’t always panned out despite international financial institutions’ best intentions, said Michael Pettis, an economist and commentator at Peking University who recently penned a skeptical evaluation of the AIIB. Aside from South Korea and Taiwan, Pettis said it was “hard to think of many cases in the 20th century of poor backward countries becoming advanced economies.” He held that developing countries had a limited capacity to absorb significant amounts of external debt before the debt became a growth concern, bringing the assumptions of the current loan-based development model into question.

Yet China may have benefited more than most from such international aid.

After Mao’s death in 1976 the country’s ties with the World Bank and IMF proved a boon in helping it avoid serious economic missteps. When the bank visited in 1980 on its first economic mission to China, government officials were surprised to learn that their country was expected to become a net

importer of oil by mid-decade—they had, after all, just signed a long-term agreement to export oil to Japan on the assumption that the mainland would have surpluses of the resource indefinitely, according to an account (pdf) from Pieter Bottelier, former senior adviser to the vice president for East Asia at the World Bank and senior adjunct professor of China Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

Beijing never used any of the IMF’s financing facilities, instead seeking its help in figuring out how best to develop major economic institutions and policy through extensive consultation. China did become the World Bank’s top borrower and received substantial technical assistance during the 1990s, though these roles later shrank as its economy matured. Even after China snagged accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, reforms intended to give it and other emerging economies a greater voice at the IMF and ADB ultimately stalled. This logjam continued despite a study published by the latter in 2009 estimating that Asia would need about US$8 trillion in national infrastructure investment between 2010 and 2020.

Strategic valuations Those long-running slights may have helped spur President Xi Jinping to propose creation of a multilateral financial institution on a visit to Indonesia in 2013, but according to unnamed policymakers cited in a recent report by respected finance and economics magazine Caixin, Beijing has been mulling such a bank for more than a decade.

That would help explain some of the AIIB’s resonance with other new policy drives out of China.

“The AIIB has to be seen in a stra-

18

China Economic Review | June 2015

COVER STORY

tegic context” said Professor Lye Fook Liang, assistant director and research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute. Lye, whose research focuses on China’s relations with countries in the region, pointed to the broader picture including other initiatives that have been announced since Xi took office: the maritime and overland Silk Road initiatives and their accompanying Silk Road Fund, as well as the BRICS-funded New Development Bank.

By relying on economic strength, Lye said, China is deliberately avoiding confrontation with the US over power.

“Economic cooperation is an area where countries can easily find mutual benefits. They tend to think less in terms of an ‘I win, you lose’ mentality.”

“Even with thorough reform of the existing institutions, China may well have started a new bank such as AIIB,” Dollar said. “But it is likely that the response of other developing countries would not have been so enthusiastic if reform of the existing institutions were proceeding well.”

Myth Busting: The AIIB is no silver bullet for China’s overcapacity and currency internationalization issues ome analysts have suggested

S

that the SRF’s infrastructure

focus will help absorb overcapacity from China’s glut-laden manufacturing and construction sectors. But in a recent analysis (pdf) for Bloomberg Brief, Dollar wrote that any fears the AIIB will do the same make little sense: “The point is that the bank is just way too small to make any dent in the excess capacity problem, even

ing is that the easiest route is to use

if China were the sole supplier for

the [US] dollar, [which is] more liquid

these projects, which it won’t be.”

and freely available, and convertible,

The bank may yet tie into other

obviously.”

policy goals being eyed by Beijing,

For those same reasons Tobin

among them furthering the interna-

suggested it wasn’t likely that the

tionalization of the yuan, said Dr. Da-

yuan will be accepted for member-

mian Tobin at the China Institute of

ship in the IMF’s Special Drawing

the University of London’s School of

Rights (SDR) basket of reserve cur-

Oriental and African Studies.

rencies when the fund reviews the

Tobin, whose research focuses on

system at the end of this year. He cit-

the renminbi’s internationalization,

ed the continued lack of full convert-

said substantial policy movement in

ibility as a key shortcoming unlikely

Beijing’s consensus

that direction is the result of incre-

to be overcome in the interim.

Whatever drew the influx of applications for membership in the AIIB, it wasn’t details on how the bank would be structured or function. The Caixin report cited unnamed officials as saying the bank will have a bank president heading up an executive council, a board of directors, and a management team. It’s not clear how the board or management team will represent member nations, though if the bank follows the precedents set by the IMF and ADB its president will be from the mainland.

Founding members have expressed concerns; in an email to the maga-

mental steps made by programs like

“All we can go by is the history of

the stock connect, Silk Road pro-

these things,” Tobin said, “and the

grams, and even earlier initiatives

history of the past few years sug-

like the qualified investor scheme –

gests that the Chinese leadership

all of which have a quota of renminbi.

prefers these sort of incremental

But he added the AIIB almost certain-

steps based on quotas and based on

ly won’t start out using the yuan.

offshore pools of renminbi that they

“The transaction cost of using

can control the interest rates of. Un-

renminbi as reserve currency for

derpinning all of this is a big fear that

the AIIB would be very expensive and

if they go for full convertibility, capital

very high, just as it would be for any

will flow out—and if you look at the

other trade settlement or any other

banking system in China at the mo-

form of investment,” Tobin said. “I

ment, it really doesn’t seem ready to

think what a lot of people are say-

deal with that.”

China Economic Review | June 2015

19

COVER STORY

zine from Australia’s Department of the Treasury saying it did not want the new bank to be controlled by a single country.

Lye said it was important to allow founding members to play a role in terms of shared responsibility for the institution and for Beijing to let them be seen as partners in getting the bank up and running. The key question, he said, was “how does China, even though likely the majority shareholder, imbue in other founding members that they are also critical members of the AIIB?” Whether the party leadership is comfortable with it or not, China can certainly afford to allow other founding members to exert some influence on the bank’s decisions. That would broaden the spotlight beyond just Beijing in the event of inevitable issues with infrastructure projects, and would fit nicely into an array of foreign policy fronts that allow China to more nimbly pursue its goals.

“The Silk Road Fund (SRF) allows

20

China Economic Review | June 2015

China the flexibility to tap it in terms of speed of dispensation and how to compliment the more orderly decisionmaking process of the AIIB,” Lye said. “[The bank] should not be seen as isolated, but as complimentary, allowing China the flexibility to engage in bilateral projects using either [institution].”

Cui bono Chinese officials have repeatedly said the AIIB will follow international best practices while seeking a more efficient and less risk-averse outlook than those the World Bank and ADB have come to adopt. Dollar, while supportive of these goals, is content to wait and see.

“It will be important to monitor AIIB to see if it really can be faster and more efficient, while at the same time respecting environmental and other standards,” he said. Lye explained that while countries in the region were looking for funding from an institution less bogged down in bureaucracy, that didn’t preclude due diligence.

At all such banks, Lye said, “the lender has to be sure there is a proper mechanism in place to not only dispense the loans but recover the loans over time.” He said the onus was on founding members to come up with standards for governance, environmental impact and how projects should benefit local communities instead of just the state or local companies.

But he warned that rapid, total industrialization wasn’t always the best choice. Totally abandoning agriculture and failing to develop the services sector in favor of high-speed industry building could lead to externalities like pollution and over-exploitation of resources (à la present-day China). For that reason, Lye said, the onus was on the governments receiving loans to decide their own economic models.

More of the bank’s key features should come into focus as its launch draws near, though said date remains a bit fuzzy itself. State news organization Xinhua has only ever stated that the bank “looks set to be launched by the end of the year,” though a memorandum of understanding has already been signed by members. It will take even longer to determine whether it will make a difference in the region and on the world stage.

“Infrastructure projects have a long gestation so it may take a decade or more to really see what the scale of AIIB will be and what its real impact is,” Dollar said.

Pettis was less genteel. “We are very much in early stages, which you know, is fine,” he said, “because that’s when you are able to make all kinds of pronouncements and you don’t have to be worried too much with being consistent with the facts.”

COVER STORY

The peaceful war?

Q&A: Patrick Mendis on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and America’s role in Asia

C

hina’s plans in the South and East China seas have become more ambitious and its tone more when confronting countries with competing claims to the vast swathes of nautical territory. But while the territorial issues continue to fester, the list of countries that have lined up to join China’s new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, including key US allies and despite Washington’s discouragement, are a testament to the country’s growing economic allure.

Patrick Mendis, a distinguished senior fellow and affiliate professor of public and international affairs at George Mason University’s School of Public Policy, is the author of “The Peaceful War”, a book discussing how Chinese and American dreams are shaping a new Pacific World Order. Currently on a tour of Chinese universities to deliver a series of lectures on China’s ambitious new trade policies and Sino-American relations, Professor Mendis sat down with China Economic Review during his stop in Shanghai to discuss the evolving roles of China and the United States in the region’s economic and political spheres.

How does US activity in the Pacific region correlate with China’s current push forward of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank?

When the President Xi Jinping introduced this initiative late last year, Peking invited all the countries to take part in this Asian Infrastructure Invest-

ment Bank (AIIB) essentially to push for Chinese economic developments.

Specifically, the “One Belt One Road” in the North and the maritime silk road in the South are initiatives being pushed forward by China through the AIIB. As a result, there are a number of issues that the US is facing.

If you look at our allies like France, the UK, France, Germany, Australia – and even America’s other ally in the Indian Ocean, India – have all expressed interest in joining. As a matter of fact, India is an original partner and a first round country that has expressed an interest in this initiative.

Now you will see that the IMF and the Asian Development Bank have also expressed interest in supporting or complementing the AIIB. If these countries go with China, then America is alone. What are the American busi-

ness and financial community, especially in Wall Street, going to do?

The United States can choose not to support a certain policy, but our large banking companies like Goldman-Sachs, American Express, Bank of America, can go elsewhere to make money. If this is the case, there is no way the US administration can hold onto these companies. I think this is a losing proposition for the US. In my personal view, I think the US can gain from participation in the AIIB because it would have a great impact for the US economy. Therefore, I think the US needs to take part in this, whether it is a Chinese-led initiative or not.

How would you say this vision that China is carrying out relates to its activity in the South China Sea? Specifically, how does China’s “island

China Economic Review | June 2015

21

COVER STORY

building” strategy to extend their own economic trade zone relate to their position in East Asia?

China is using American doctrines and concepts. What I mean by this is that China is using what I would call China’s Monroe Doctrine. This American term means: Don’t allow foreigners or colonial powers into our hemisphere of North America and Latin America.

Right now, China is essentially saying: the East China sea is ours, the South China sea is ours, this has historically all been ours. Like America, China is exercising power over what it believes to be its sphere of influence.

Throughout Chinese history, at least during the 100 years of humiliation, China was poor, China was weak, China was humiliated. Now, China is a rising power, they want to bring back their culture and history, which I think is a legitimate reason. Having said that, there is a difference between the “American Monroe Doctrine” and “Chinese

22

China Economic Review | June 2015

Monroe Doctrine.” The “American Monroe Doctrine” was championed by Latin American countries. Latin American countries accepted American influence, and there was minimal protest against the United States. As a matter of fact, the Brazilian government [in] 1906 built a palace called the “Monroe Palace” in Rio de Janeiro to signify their approval of America’s foreign policy.

That is the complete opposite of China’s Monroe Doctrine in the South China sea. China has gone into the harbors, airstrips, schools, and temples in the Spratley [Islands] and claimed them as their own. China has turned that collection of islands into military bases in order to protect China’s interests, such as fishery and navigation passageways with busy cargo ship traffic. All other stakeholder countries in the region, like the Philippines and Vietnam, are protesting against this demonstration of power. In the future, I do not see Manila, or Ho Chi Minh City erect-

ing palaces reminding their people of China’s influence. Instead what we see is Vietnam and the Philippines asking America for help to protect against Chinese bullying in the region.

Why is China doing this? Partly because of its history, partly because of their economic interest in the region, and partly for its own national interest.

China has domestic economic challenges in the years to come, so they want to make sure that beneficial resources are coming through for the Chinese nation.

By looking at China’s own history, I am very optimistic that China would bilaterally try to resolve this issue especially since their is an economic interest nations like Vietnam and the Philippines. They have close trade and economic interests with China, therefore China has greater influence over these countries. In addition, these nations are China’s neighbors, while America is far away. Within international relations, it is advantageous to have a good relationship with your neighbors.

In my opinion, there is a greater interest for these nations to have a good relationship with China. China would like to resolve these border issues and the claims for these disputed islands. Therefore, in the end I hope these nations and China will come up with some type of agreement, or create a code of conduct to govern relations in the South China Sea. I’m hoping that Chinese leaders will recognize the importance of these relationships.

If China wants to have a peaceful rise to power or peaceful development, this is the best way to show the world that yes, we have challenges, we have problems with our neighbors, but we resolve them. This is how we resolve problems.

We are not sending our troops, we are

COVER STORY

not sending our military aircraft, we don’t send in our drones, instead we send a subtle message to America that we are going to be a better leader than you are. That is the kind of message that China is going to send to states in the South China Sea. They are will resolve these these issues bilaterally and not through direct force. Otherwise, China will be making the same mistakes that America has already made in the past.

Having said that, as far as military presence goes, America is still firmly rooted in the South China Sea. How do you see the relationship between China and the United States playing out in this region?

There are two different answers to this question. One, is that America will apply its check and balance system as a means of maintaining a balance of power in the region. If China is exercising its show of power in the South China Sea, America has to demonstrate that it will stop the power through the use of its own power, and therefore create a balance. Under this policy which we refer to as the Madisonian system, power has to be balanced with another power. I think American leadership is indoctrinated with this idea that balance of power has to be there within international relations. That’s the Real Politick, or the Kissinger politics of international relations.

China is different, China is always driven by stability and order and harmony. These are beautiful concepts.

They have an interesting history in China. If you were to look during the Ming Dynasty at China’s foreign policy, when Emperor Zhu Di sent admiral Zheng He to conduct seven voyages in the South China Sea to the “Indian

Western Ocean,” known now as the Indian Ocean. The emperor’s objective was to have diplomatic relations with the thirty countries present in this region. In fact, this was almost 100 years prior to Christopher Columbus’ arrival to America, and he came in three tiny boats. This voyage went with hundreds of huge fleets to the Indian Ocean, all the way to Africa and the Middle East.

These voyages and China’s historical diplomatic record is one example that China’s intention was not, is not, and will never be to colonize other people, or take land unnecessarily like the European powers did in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Their intention is to respect the rest of the world. China is saying we would like to have more order, we like to have stability, we would like to have harmonious relations. Chinese society is heavily influenced by Daoism, Confucianism, and Buddhism. These are beautiful traditions and teachings that I think influence China’s foreign policy decisions.

Their goal is to achieve stability, order,

and harmony. In the West, we predict China’s decisions through our own prisms, experiences of colonialism, balance of power and real politick.

Yet, China looks at the world. The Chinese mindset is coming from its tradition of historical, religious, and cultural underpinning. I think given this, more and more people will realize that China has a unique and different approach to solutions. In the future, I think that the US and China will begin to understand cultural differences and begin to appreciate and accept them.

By doing so, I believe relations between the two countries would strengthen tremendously. In the West, we tend to look at everything as a zero-sum game: you lose and I win, or vice versa. That’s diplomacy or international relations in the West. However the Chinese view diplomacy as a win-win situation. How can you win and how can I also be the winner?

If we begin to have this mindset and accept that these two cultures are different, I think that more people will start to realize – especially policymakers, academics and scholars – will begin to see the world differently. That is what I try to advocate in my book. You cannot look at the future unless you look at the past. The farther you can see into our own past, the farther you can see into the future. This is exactly what Winston Churchill said, “the farthest of the future depends on what we can see, or the farthest history we can understand.”

I think that US leadership, scholars, and policymakers, as well as their counterparts in China will begin to realize that there is a wisdom in our histories. We can avoid places where we made mistakes in the past and try to look at the future differently.

China Economic Review | June 2015

23

封面故事

搅局，盘活，孰是孰非 中国积极促成并主导亚洲基础设施投资银行，若能不谈地缘政治，将成区域发展新助力

24

China Economic Review | June 2015

封面故事

2

015年3月，英国抛弃长期保持“特

桑顿中国中心（John L. Thornton China

殊关系”的美国及其他盟友，正式申

Center）高级研究员的杜大伟（David

请成为中国主导的亚洲基础设施投资银行

Dollar）曾说：“中国和韩国等崛起的国

（亚投行）意向创始成员国。尽管美国罕

家都普遍认为，世行的存在与否无法改变

见地表达了不满，此举仍似开闸放水，一

其发展的轨迹，唯一的差别就在于速度有

发而不可收。申请截止日期前，共有56个

多快，能不能少走点昂贵的弯路。尽管世

国家意愿加入这一由中国助推的国际金融

行起到的推动作用是不争的事实，但把这

机构。

些国家的成功尽数归功世行并不可取。”

面对这场看似毫无调解可能的后院 外交争端，美国在思考将矛头归咎于谁之

发展困境

前，最好可以回顾一下过往：国际货币

尽管中国是 IMF 和世行的创始国，但

基金组织（IMF）掌门人曾表示，如果美

从 IMF 创立，直到1944年世行在美国新

国同意执行一系列大势所趋而又姗姗来迟

罕布什尔州布雷顿森林（Bretton Woods,

的改革措施，她愿意亲临美国国会，现场

New

献舞。

于内战时期；IMF 创立伊始旨在向遭受严

Hampshire）成立，中国还依旧处

去年11月份，美国共和党刚结束党

重经济困难的国家发放贷款；而世行则主

内立法选举，国际货币基金组织总裁拉

要承担援助欧洲进行战后重建，并对发展

加德在接受法新社（AFP）采访时曾表

中国家进行投资。

示：“只要美国愿意进行改革，让我跳肚

北大经济学家和时评人迈克尔 • 佩

皮舞也心甘情愿。”美国国内保守派的胜

蒂斯（Michael Pettis）说，尽管愿望良

利让 IMF 扩容金融资源的希望更加渺茫；

好，但世行投资发展中国家的初衷并没有

其次，随着投票权的提升，以中国为首的

很好地兑现。除韩国和台湾，20 世纪鲜有

新兴经济体愈加希望增强自己的国际影响

落后穷困国家一飞冲天的例子。他认为，

力，改变目前格局，在以日本为首的亚洲

当时的发展中国家并没有能力消化如此巨

开发银行金融体系下寻求新的突破口。

额的外债，甚至会对发展起到反作用；这

这场风波令耻辱感如播种一般在美国

也启示我们去反思现有的贷款发展模式。

国内蔓延，尽管成立亚投行的最终影响尚

相比其他众多被援助国，中国已经受

无法预估，但500亿美元（有观点称可达

益匪浅。1976年，毛泽东去世，中国与世

1000亿美元）的资本注入已经足以改变

行及IMF的合作得到加强，成功走入了正

时局。亚投行成立将动摇由美日主导的世

确的经济路线。诸如1980年世行首度入华

行和亚开行构成的现有格局，打破长期僵

时震惊地发现，尽管中国预期将在10年中

局。北京此举通过构建多边合作，进一步

期成为石油净进口国，但却错误地认为自

展现其外交领导力，推动国家和整个区域

己将永远保持石油顺差，甚至还与日本签

获益。亚投行对发展中国家长期增长的影

署了一项长期的石油出口协议。

响仍需谨慎分析；当然，其中也包括一系 列诚惶诚恐的机构组织，诸如世行。 曾任世行中国主管20年，现任布鲁 金斯学会（Brookings

Institution）约翰

回顾过往，中国从未使用过IMF的融 资机制，而是通过密切接触和深入咨询， 探寻建立大型金融机构和规划政策体系的 方法；尽管随着中国经济的发展，世行

China Economic Review | June 2015

25

封面故事

世上没有天上掉馅饼的好事，债务的 实际成本远超预估。20世纪80年代拉美债 务危机期间，IMF 强制借款国遵守华盛顿 共识（Washington Consensus）；IMF 要求借款国削减政府开支，出售国有企 业，全力降低政府对经济的监管力度。 这些强制条款令拉美诸国雪上加霜， 其影响甚至远超危机本身，过度宽松的资 本管控让各国为争夺资金头破血流。如此 紧缩的财政措施像一把重锤打击了区域经 济，当然马来西亚除外，它当时对 IMF 的 规定明智地选择了无视。简言之，严格的 资本管控可以保证国家持有足够资金量， 在合适的时机快速恢复。

北京共识 无论是什么原因造成加入亚投行如此 受到热捧，其正式成立后的架构和功能还 尚未完善。3月31日申请截止日期过后， 各国纷纷就即将登上历史舞台的亚投行开 始召开紧锣密鼓的闭门会议，就核心问题 展开探讨。 官方称亚投行将设执行委员会，董 事会及管理团队，并由行长统筹。董事会 的作用逐渐退减，但无可否认，中国是

上发生冲突。经济合作总可以让两国尽快

或管理团队以何种方式代表各参与国尚无

世行最大的借款国，并接受过重大的技术

找到共识，双方都在避免一定要争出你赢

细则，但行长由中方任命应是既定事实。

援助。2001年，中国成功加入世贸组织，

我输，而是积极斡旋。尽管赚的有限，但

但在一封澳大利亚财政部写给财新的邮件

但旨在提高其在 IMF 和亚开行话语权的努

毕竟还是赚了。”

中，创始成员国表达了担忧，不希望亚投

力却一直搁浅。

战略价值 表面看起来，2013年中国国家主席 习近平访问印尼促成了建立多边金融机构

行中国一国独大。

21个国家面积都不大，且都能从基建投

杜大伟和黎良福都曾做过类似的分

资中获益这一现象具有重要意义。杜大伟

析，为了让亚投行顺利运转，中国必须平

称，IMF和亚开行改革的滞后很大程度上

等对待创始成员国，共同承担义务和责

成为了催化剂。

任。这里的一个核心问题就是，中国尽管 极有可能是大股东，但如何能够向其他成

的提议，但财新经济杂志称，据不知名政

杜大伟说：“即便现有国际金融机

府决策人员透露，北京为此举已酝酿长达

构走向深度改革，中国可能依旧会建立亚

十年之久。

投行。但如果改革顺利，其他发展中国家

不管中国政府愿意与否，允许其他成

蜂拥加入亚投行的意愿或许并不会如此

员国承担部分决策权无伤大雅。同时也可

强烈。”

将国际视线从北京转移，便于中国以更灵

在新加坡国立大学东亚研究所担任助 理主任及研究员的黎良福教授（Prof. Lye

员国传递各国并不是附属品的信号？

活的外交政策实现预期目的。

Fook Liang）专注研究中国及周边国家关

IMF 在亚洲金融危机期间发挥的作用

系，他指出：“中国国家主席习近平打造

毫无疑问依然令人记忆犹新。1998年前，

黎良福认为：“丝路基金的设立可以

陆上及海上新‘丝绸之路’；并成立丝路

亚洲新兴国家纷纷将货币与美元挂钩，货

让中国更灵活的进行资金分配，与程式化

基金和金砖发展银行。理解亚投行的战略

币价值迅速上升；金融危机爆发之后，出

的亚投行决策流程互为补充。丝路基金与

意义需有大局观。”

口大幅下降，贸易赤字严重，民间临时通

亚投行不是也不应分离，而是互补的，这

融资金迅速枯竭，各国都背上了 IMF 数十

将让后续的双边项目运作更具灵活性。”

黎良福说：“中国依靠强大的经济实 力，正在有意避免与美国在权力制衡问题

26

黎也说到，亚投行首轮申请加入的

China Economic Review | June 2015

亿美金的债务。

龙洲经讯（GaveKal Dragonom-

封面故事

ics）的经济分析师汤姆 • 米勒（Tom Miller）指出，中国外交部最近发布的一份 文件诠释了由亚投行及丝路基金的400 亿美元资金构成的宏观策略。他在4月的

破除迷思：亚投行并不是中国转移过剩产能， 实现人民币国际化的尚方宝剑

一则报告中写道：“中国的成功得益于 其政治，经济和外交策略的统一，助其 进一步推进对国家利益的追求，谓之‘大 战略’。”

最佳实践 中国官员不止一次表示过，亚投行将 在遵守国际标准的基础上，探寻行之有效 的运作方法，追求对风险的适度规避，避 免重蹈世行及亚开行的覆辙。杜大伟对这 一愿景表示赞同，但仍需观望。 黎良福解释道：“对亚投行的运作进 行监督是必要之举，要看其究竟能否效率 更高，同时兼顾环保等其他准则。尽管精 简的资金发放流程很有必要，但尽职调查 绝不能省。” 他说：“所有类似的银行机构都必须 确认，不仅要有完善的放款机制，也要确 保贷款可以逐步收回。创始成员国必须建 立完善的治理机制，环境影响评估标准及 如何保证项目可以改善地方和社区，而非 仅看国家或企业层面。” 他也警示说，快速推进全面的工业 化进程不见得是最佳选择。牺牲农业和服 务业的工业发展将造成污染加剧和资源滥 用，现今的中国就是例子。考虑到持续发 展，接受贷款国政府必须建立明确的经济 模型。 随着启动日期的临近，亚投行的更多 细则也将随之浮现，尽管具体日期本身现 在也是未知数。目前成员国已经完成合作 备忘录的签署，但中国财政部部长楼继伟 表示，亚投行将在2015年底正式启动，其 对区域乃至世界的影响尚需拭目以待。 杜大伟认为：“基建类项目通常酝酿 期都很长，要看到亚投行的实际影响可能 要等十数年之久。”佩蒂斯则认为需要的 时间可能还要更长。 他说：“现在一切都还为时尚早，一 切声明都无从考究，还是让我们静观其变

一

些分析师称丝路基金关注基建投 资，将助中国吸收过剩产能，一 举疏通制造业和建筑行业的臃肿迟钝。 究竟是真是假，不得而知；但至少不要 对亚洲基础设施投资银行给予太多的 期待。 曾任世行中国主管，现任布鲁金斯 学会约翰桑顿中国中心高级研究员的杜 大伟在最近的一篇分析中指出，亚投行 在这一问题上能发挥的作用极为有限。 他说：“即便中国为所有未来的基建项 目贡献全部产能，亚投行的规模也远不 足以抵消如此多的剩余，更何况其他成 员国也不会静坐不动。” 伦敦大学东方与非洲研究院中国 学会的达米安 • 托宾博士（Dr. Damien Tobin）是人民币国际化的专家， 他说：“亚投行将成为中国一系列政策 推行的载体，其中就包括推进人民币国 际化。” 托宾认为，沪港通，丝路基金， 甚至更早些的合格境外机构投资者机制 全是推进人民币国际化的相关政策，因 为都涉及人民币配额。但亚投行并不相 关。基本可以确定的是，亚投行的初始 交易货币不会是人民币。 他说：“和其他贸易结算和投资一 样，将人民币作为亚投行的储备货币将 会造成交易成本过高。我认为多数人都 觉得应该用美元，流动性和自由度都更

高，兑换也更加方便。” 出于同样的考虑，11月份货币筛选 时，人民币被列入 IMF 超主权（SDR） 篮子货币的可能性微乎其微，兑换自由 度也不是一个短期可以解决的问题。 “既然我们能参考的只有历史数 据，就让我们看一下过去几年中国高层 的做法：主要是通过实行人民币配额及 控制离岸人民币池利率一步步逐渐推 进。究根诘底，中国担心人民币完全放 开将造成大量资金外流，现有的中国银 行体系还远没准备好。” 北大经济学家和时评人迈克尔 • 佩 蒂斯（Michael Pettis）就亚投行能否 推动人民币成为国际储备货币的进程上 依旧并不看好。 佩蒂斯说：“很多人都想把亚投行 和人民币国际化放在一起看，但却并不 明确两者的联系究竟在哪里。”他同时 指出，美国在19世纪60年代成为世界第 一大经济体后，又花了80年才建立起美 元今天的地位。中国即便未来经济体量 上超越美国，也不意味着人民币能成为 国际储备货币，也没有这个必要。 佩蒂斯认为：“总有人说人民币 将成为国际主要储备货币。如果你问即 便这成了现实，中国能获得什么好处？ 他们会说，显而易见的，中国将享有特 权。如果你再继续追问什么特权，几乎 没有人能说出所以然。”

更为实际。”

China Economic Review | June 2015

27

封面故事

和平的战争？ 问与答：帕特里克 • 曼迪斯谈亚洲基础设施投资银行和美国在亚洲所扮演的角色

面

临竞相争夺海上大片领土主权的各

是诸如高盛、美国运通、美国银行等大

我觉得马尼拉或胡志明市不会像巴西一样

个国家，中国在南海和东海的计划

型银行控股公司也可以选择在其他地方赚

通过建造宫殿来彰显中国的影响力。相

愈发雄心勃勃，立场也愈发坚定。虽然领

钱。若是这样，美国政府就无法控制这些

反，我们现在看到的是越南和菲律宾向美

土争端不断加剧，但是等候加入中国新筹

公司。我认为这对美国来说是亏本生意。

国寻求帮助来抵御来自中国的欺凌。

建的亚洲基础设施投资银行的国家名单足

在我看来，我认为美国可以从加入亚投行

中国为什么要这么做?一是因为中国

以证明中国日益增长的经济吸引力，这其

中获利，因为这将对美国经济产生巨大影

的历史，二是因为中国在这一地区的经济

中包括不顾华盛顿阻拦的美国重要盟友。

响。因此，不论这一倡议是否由中国领

利益，三是因为中国自身的国家利益。中

导，美国都有必要加入亚投行。

国在未来几年里将会面临国内各项经济挑

帕特里克 • 曼迪斯是美国乔治梅森 大学公共政策学院的公共与国际事务的杰

如何理解中国正在实行的这一战略与

战，所以他们想确保中华民族能够获得有

出高级研究员和客座教授，也是《和平的

其在南中国海的活动相关？确切地说，中

利资源。纵观中国历史，中国将会通过双

战争》一书作者，书中讨论了中国梦与美

国旨在扩展经济贸易区的“岛屿建设”战

边方式来解决这一问题，对此我很乐观，

国梦如何共塑新的太平洋世界秩序。曼迪

略如何与其在东亚的地位相关？

因为这关系到越南和菲律宾等国的经济利

斯教授最近参观了中国的大学，并就中国

中国正使用美国的学说和理念。我的

益。这些亚洲国家与中国贸易和经济利益

的新贸易政策和中美关系发表了一系列演

意思是中国运用的学说和理念，我把它称

联系密切，因此中国对这些国家影响较

讲，在上海逗留期间，他接受了《中国经

之为中国的门罗主义。这一美国术语的含

大。另外，这些国家是中国的邻国，而与

济评论》杂志的采访，探讨了中美两国在

义是：不允许外国人和殖民列强入侵北美

美国相距甚远。在国际关系中，与邻国建

地区经济和政治领域中的角色演变。

和拉丁美洲。现在，中国必然会说：东海

立友好关系大有裨益。

如何看待美国在太平洋地区的活 动与当前中国推进亚洲基础设施 投资银行间的联系？

在我看来，这些国家对与中国建立

是中国的。正如美国一样，中国正对其势

友好关系抱有极大的兴趣，中国愿意去解

力范围行使权力。

决这些边境问题和这些有争议岛屿的主权

纵观中国历史，至少在近百年的屈辱

归属问题。因此，最后我希望这些国家和

去年年底，习近平主席提出这一倡

史中，中国积贫积弱，受尽侮辱。现在，

中国会达成某类协议或者创建一套管理南

议，北京邀请各国加入亚洲基础设施投资

中国是崛起中的大国，他们想要恢复其历

中国海主权关系的行为准则。我希望中国

银行（亚投行）来推动中国经济的发展。

史和文化，我认为这是一个正当的理由。

领导人能够意识到这些关系的重要性。如

确切地说，中国通过亚投行提出在北部和

虽然如此，“美国的门罗主义”和“中国

果中国想要和平崛起，和平发展，这便是

南部分别建设“一带一路”和丝绸之路的

的门罗主义”仍然相差甚远。“美国的门

向世界宣示的最好方式，美国也面临着挑

倡议。美国的问题随之而来。

罗主义”得到拉美国家的支持。拉美国家

战，我们与邻国存在问题，但是我们解决

我们的盟友：法国，英国，德国，澳

受美国影响，几乎没有任何反美抗议呼

了这些问题。我们解决问题的方式是这样

大利亚，甚至是美国在印度洋的盟友—

声。事实上，1906年巴西政府在里约热内

的。我们没有派遣军队，没有调派军用飞

印度，都已表示有兴趣加入。事实上，印

卢建造了名为“门罗宫”的宫殿以表示他

机，也没有派用无人机，相反，我们给美

度是中国最初的合作伙伴，也是在第一轮

们对美国外交政策的认可。

洲传递了这样的暗示: 我们要成为一个比你

中就对这一倡议表示兴趣的国家。现在你

这与中国在南中国海的门罗主义截然

更好的领导者。这便是中国将向南中国海

会发现国际货币基金组织和亚洲开发银行

相反。中国已经进入南沙群岛的港口、机

各国所传递的消息。他们没有通过直接力

也有兴趣支持和援助亚投行。倘若这些国

场、学校和寺庙，并声称其主权。中国占

量而是通过双边方式来解决这些问题。否

家与中国站在一起，那么美国就孤立无援

领诸多岛屿，将其变为军事基地，以保护

则，中国将会犯美国过去犯的错。

了。而美国的商界和金融界尤其是华尔街

其在诸如货运繁忙的渔场和导航通道的利

将何去何从呢？

益。这一地区其他利益相关国家，如菲律

美国可以选择不支持某一政策，但

28

是我们的，南海也是我们的，它们历来都

China Economic Review | June 2015

宾和越南都在抗议这一权力演示。未来，

话虽如此，就军事存在而言，美 国仍然深深扎根在南中国海。你

封面故事

如何看待中美两国在这一地区所 呈现的关系？ 针对这一问题有两个不同的答案，

近100年，而且他是荡着三只小船抵达的。

到中国有着独一无二、截然不同的解决方

而这次航行中，郑和率领数百支庞大的舰

案。我认为未来美国和中国将会理解文化

队到达印度洋，一直到达非洲和中东。

差异性并且欣赏和接纳它们。只有这样，

一个是美国将会运用其制衡制度来保持这

这些航行和中国的历史性外交记录

中美两国关系才能明显好转。西方社会倾

一地区的权力平衡。如果中国在南中国海

就是这样一个例子，它们表明无论是在过

向于把一切看作是零和游戏：你赢我输，

炫耀武力，美国不得不表明其将通过行使

去、现在、未来，中国的目的从来就不是

反之亦然。这就是西方的民主或国际关

自己的权力来遏制这种武力，由此创造平

征服他人或者像欧洲列强一样在亚洲、非

系。然而中国人认为民主是双赢的局面，

衡。在我们说的麦迪逊式体系下，一方权

洲和拉丁美洲毫无必要地强占土地。他们

如何才能让双方都成为赢家？

力与另一方权力相平衡。我认为美国的领

的目的是尊重世界各国。中国一直在传递

假设我们持有这一思想观念并且接

导阶层被灌以这一思想：即在国际关系中

这样一个信息：我们想要更多的秩序，我

纳两种文化的差异性，我认为更多的人，

也要讲求权力平衡。这便是现实政治或者

们想要稳定，我们想要和谐关系。中国社

特别对于决策者、学术研究人员和学者而

是国际关系中的基辛格政治。

会深受道教、儒教和佛教的影响。我认为

言，将会意识到并且看到一个全然不同的

而中国则不同，中国一直以来讲求

这些优秀的传统和教导影响着中国的外交

世界。这就是我在书中所提倡的。只有回

稳定、秩序与和谐。这些都是非常美好的

决策。它们的目标都是为了取得稳定、秩

首过去才能看见未来。这正如温斯顿 • 丘

理念，在中国都有一段非常有趣的历史。

序与和谐。在西方，我们通过自身视角、

吉尔所言：“你能看到多少现在，或能看

你看看明朝时期中国的外交政策，皇帝朱

殖民主义经验、权力制衡以及现实政治来

到多远的过去，就能看到多远的未来。”

棣曾派遣航海家郑和在南中国海七下西印

预测中国的决策。

我认为美国和中国的领导者、学者和决策

度洋，也就是现在的印度洋。其目的是与

然而，中国也在看世界。中国人的

者将会意识到我们的历史中闪耀着智慧。

这一地区的30个国家建立外交关系。事实

思想观念源自其历史、宗教和文化传统。

我们可以避免重蹈覆辙并且以一种全新的

上，这比克里斯托弗 • 哥伦布到达美洲早了

我认为鉴于这一传统，更多的人将会意识

目光放眼未来。

China Economic Review | June 2015

29

CULTURE MAP

Big hero 6 The loveliest hero in the world Big Hero 6 instantly became a huge hit once released on the mainland, with its adorable main character Baymax being the focus of discussion. As a pneumatic robot, Baymax has become the hottest star around the world.

B

ig Hero 6 tells a simple story but is infused with much love. In a future high-tech metropolis named San Fransokyo, robots are widely used. A talented boy named Hiro Hamada, so arrogant that he even refused to go to university, has a special gift for making robots. His elder brother Tadashi Hamada, mature and stable, helps Hiro to realize that he is like a frog in a well, and encourages the boy to create a nano robot which allows him to gain admission to university.

Right in the middle of joyful celebrations, the building catches fire and Tadashi loses his own life while saving another’s life. The fraternal love was supposed to stop there

32

China Economic Review | June 2015

and audiences feel the sadness for Hiro losing his brother.

And then Baymax shows up, and soon changes the atmosphere. As a medical robot created by Tadashi, Baymax has the same kind heart, and takes the place of Tadashi and becomes Hiro’s guardian angel, loving him and taking care of him like a brother. Baymax’s task is to heal this heartbroken boy. Hiro keeps saying that his brother is gone, but Baymax insists that “Tadashi is here”. From the video that Tadashi left in the program of Baymax, Hiro sees the invention process of Baymax and obtained great comfort from it. At that moment, Hiro came to know the real meaning of “Tadashi is here”, it means his brother is in the program chip, and will always be in his heart.

The story continues. Big Hero 6 defeats evil and saves the city.

Baymax sacrifices himself and is destroyed to save Hiro and Dr. Callaghan’s daughter. The robot’s last push gives the audience the impression that Baymax actually has human emotions – deep love from a big brother. What Baymax says in that last minute - “I will always be with you!”

- has moved millions of viewers to tears. With this flow of love, Disney gets good grades in both market box office and professional reputation.

The relationship between Baymax and Hiro is master and

CULTURE MAP

servant, but also companions and also brothers. This three-in-one relationship gives audience a sense of love and healing.

As is the tradition of Disney, the movie has a happy ending. Hiro found the chip of Baymax which enabled him to clone Baymax. More importantly, the warmth of the movie continues and expands beyond the cinema.

Baymax - Born to Hug and Heal Clumsy but patient, innocent and naive, Baymax is undoubtedly the highlight, handling most of the comic points. If asked why the audience loves Baymax so much, countless reasons might be raised, but in the end, it is because Baymax breaks the mold of how people think about robots. Its cherubic appearance makes everyone regardless of age or gender want to give it a hug.

Creating such a loveable robot, which has gained unimaginable popularity around the world, is no easy thing. In the original comic book, Baymax is Monster Baymax and can turn into a dragon robot when in combat.

Rough and intrepid, the original Monster Baymax is far from the fat and adorable Baymax of this film.

From Monster Baymax to Baymax, it took the production team three and a half years to create a mild and adorable robot. The creators rummaged through all iterations of robot in film history, including Star Wars, Terminator, and Wall-E, but couldn’t reach a consensus. They then visited several university robot labs at MIT, Harvard and CMU, and finally the director Don Hall found a pneumatic robot arm under development for medical use with excellent tactility in CMU, which coincided with the

idea of Baymax and inspired Baymax’s design.

The walking posture of Baymax also required great effort from the designers. The fast but short walking steps, the dumpy legs carrying a big round belly, makes it just like a penguin. It looks like a drunken stumbling toddler. The expressions of Baymax fully embody the spirit of keeping it simple – the creators kept subtracting from the original five expressions and one mouth to present Two Points and One Line. Therefore, the emotions of Baymax, including

happiness, sadness, excitement, curiosity, anxiety and exhaustion, are all interpreted by audience themselves.

Although Baymax has no facial expression, the creators spared no effort to refine and perfect the details of its actions while pursuing simplification.

Its motions such as blinking and turning went through repeated testing. It turns out that all the effort and hard work bore wonderful fruit – Baymax finally teeters onto the stage and wins worldwide acclaim with its softness and gentleness. The clumsy form and

China Economic Review | June 2015

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extremely simple lines, plus a chubby soft texture lead the audience to think of nothing but hugging and being hugged. It can be said that Baymax represents the essence and spirit of the movie, and it is this character that enables the movie to go far beyond the original work in its quality and creativity.

Cultural Elements Mix Eastern and Western Tastes As a virtual future city set by the story background, San Fransokyo blends two cities, namely San Francisco and Tokyo. What’s more, the blending of East and West can be found in all the scene designs. The bridge which looks like the Golden Gate Bridge is mixed with Oriental cornices, streets are lined with sakura trees, Chinese characters appear on signage boards, Japanese umbrellas and hair styles, the motorcycle Hiro rides, the air trolley bus, a Japanese shrine, and the karate that Baymax learns, every frame of this future metropolis reveals a unique feeling for Japan.

Big Hero 6 was the opening film at the last Tokyo International Film Festival. Its designers traveled to and fro between San Francisco, Tokyo and other Japanese cities to do on-the-spot material collection, watched numerous Japanese animations to capture the right feeling, and finally the design team built San Fransokyo on the base of San Francisco’s map, simultaneously blending Japanese elements of road signs, ad boards and neon lights that they saw in Japan into the movie. This was also the reason why the total box office for Big Hero 6 breaks through ¥8.8 billion over eleven weeks in theaters.

You can also find a blending of East and West in the values expressed in Big Hero 6. Unlike the typical American superhero story, the Big Hero 6 team actually rescue the villains. Oriental moral values of “repaying evil with good” replaced the usual revenge routine of “returning like for like”. From punishment to salvation, Big Hero 6 presents a rational hero, a real hero who saves himself by saving others.

Disney revives the superhero concept with brand new value. (The article is offered by SPACE; Related pictures are from Internet)

A New Era For Disney At the recent 87th Annual Academic Awards, Big Hero 6 defeated competitors including How to Train Your Dragon 2 and The Boxtrolls, winning the Best Animated Feature Oscar. Landing on North American screens on 7th November, Big Hero 6 took in US$56.22 million at the box office in just one week, ranking first at the North American box office for that week, and reaping 85 million RMB in its first two days on the Mainland, breaking the China first week box office record for Disney films. It took in 187 million RMB the second week and again was the weekly box office champ. In Taipei, Big Hero 6 ranked 4th with 1.93 million NTC in the first week, and ranked first with 13.43 million NTC. In several overseas markets such as Russia, Big Hero 6 also topped the rankings.

Big Hero 6 is a hit, and at the same time Disney has proved its transformative capability. After purchasing Pixar and Marvel, Disney has aggregated all the key elements of American animation. In recent years, Disney has gradually broken through traditional theme and transcended the prince and princess stereotype. Frozen, the highest grossing animation film, replaced the romantic man-woman love with sister love. Big Hero 6 put more emphasis on family and friendship and showed not even one scene of love between a man and woman. From a traditional point of view, completely ignoring romance is rather courageous, but this did not result in a lack of emotional expression. Precious friendship between the members of Big Hero 6 totally replaces the theme of love, enabling it to reach a wider audience

regardless of age and making it more suitable for children. Family and friendship ties, which used to be the second or even third emotional elements in such films, play the leading role in Big Hero 6, which doesn’t have traditional big American heroics movie or a fairy tale but goes deep into the real life of a hero and shows someone who embraces kindness and humanity. Most of the usual prince-princess stories were inundated with unrealistic romantic angles. But stories emphasizing simple family and friendship ties are in fact closer to audiences and can more easily resonate with real life.

As the first work by Disney since it purchased Marvel, it is undeniable that Disney has successfully rebuilt the comic version of Big Hero 6. The movie uses the advantages of Marvel in shaping superheroes without losing either its kid appeal or the positive Disney charm. The fundamental theme of praising virtue and punishing evil is interspersed with cute jokes. Disney has created its own superhero with a distinctive feel. Hiro does not face dangers by himself but with buddies like Baymax and other members of Big Hero 6. Baymax found Hiro and Hiro found his companions, and the strength of teamwork and trust shines through and encourages people to explore justice, to be brave and responsible, to be a hero.

The dazzling visuals and the innocent warm-hearted robot contribute a lot to the success of this squad of heroes, and represent a breakthrough for Disney. Big Hero 6, in a manner of speaking, symbolizes Disney’s entry into a new era of animation. (The article is offered

by SPACE; Related pictures are from Internet)

China C Ch Chi hi h na aE Economic Eco co conom nomiic nom ic Rev Review iiew ew w | Jun Ju June e2 2015 015 5

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文化地图

超能陆战队 萌翻世界的英雄范 《超能陆战队》（Big Hero 6）在国内甫一登陆旋即引起热捧，议论焦点多聚集在呆萌无敌的 大白（Baymax）身上。这个充气机器人已经成为全球最热的明星，在微博和朋友圈的热度也骤然 飙升。

超

能陆战队可谓小故事有大爱。在未

研造的医护机器人，他有哥哥一样善良的

后的一句“I will always with you！”让

来的旧京山“San

Fransokyo”

内心，代替了小正成为小宏的守护天使，

无数观众忍泪不禁，而迪士尼也理所当然

城市中，科技发达，机器人被广泛应用，

尽到哥哥的关心、爱护和责任。他的唯一

的“因为爱”而再次名利双收！

天才少年小宏（Hiro Hamada）就是制造

使命，就是治愈这个受伤的男孩。小宏曾

大白与小宏，既是主仆，又像伙伴，

机器人的高手，他心骄气傲甚至不屑去上

一直说哥哥走了，但大白却坚持：他就在

更如兄弟，这样三位一体的身份让情感骤

大学。而成熟深沉的哥哥小正（Tadashi

这。从他身上播放的哥哥研发大白过程的

然升华，充满了爱与疗愈。

Hamada）的引导和鼓励，让小宏终于明

视频里，给了小宏莫大的安慰。而此时，

迪士尼没有改变大团圆结局的惯例，

白自己不过是井底之蛙，并且通过努力制

弟弟才明白，大白说的“他就在这”的涵

影片结尾让小宏在家中意外发现了大白的

造出了微型机器人（Micro robot）从而获

义：哥哥在大白的程序芯片里，在他的

芯片，使他得以重新克隆一个大白，更重

得了大学的录取。

心里。

要的是让这份温暖和爱延续下去，延伸到

正在兴高采烈之际，风云突变，哥哥

故事继续展开。最终，陆战队不但挫

小正为了救人，丧生在火海。原以为描述

败了阴谋，拯救了城市，而且大白为了救

兄弟手足的情节戛然而止，观众也被带入

出小宏和卡拉汉教授的女儿，选择了自我

小宏痛失兄长的悲伤中去。

观影之后影院之外。

大白，为拥抱和治愈而生

牺牲和毁灭。那奋力的一推，使大白在观

呆头呆脑却无比耐心、天真纯粹却

然而大白（Baymax）的出现，很

众眼里已然完全具备了人的情感—那是

冒着傻气的“萌神”大白绝对是这部电影

快调整了影片的沉寂气氛。作为哥哥小正

长兄若父般对弟弟深沉无比的爱！大白最

的亮点。他让人忍俊不禁，把影片的大部 分笑点轻易收入囊中。如果要问观众喜爱 大白的理由，可能会有无数个答案—但 万法归一，大白突破了人们之前对机器人 的所有想象，被设计成无论男女老少都有 想抱一抱的冲动的白胖形象，是其根本原 因。 然而这个在全世界出尽风头的“暖暖 的棉花糖”机器人，可并非轻易造就！在 漫画版的《超能陆战队》中，大白的原名竟 叫“怪兽大白（Monster

Baymax）”。

怪兽大白在战斗状态会由人变身为龙和机 器人，外形彪悍勇猛，这跟电影里披着重 装铠甲却仍然大腹便便萌态可掬的大白丝 毫不沾边。 据说从“大怪兽”到“白胖子”， 剧组花了超过三年半的时间，来研究怎 样的机器人才能让人觉得温和无害、惹 人喜爱。主创们翻遍了历史上机器人的

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China Economic Review | June 2015

文化地图

样子—从《星球大战》、《终结者》到

他拥入怀之外别无他想。可以说，大白代

融入了东方文化。与许多美式超级英雄击

《机器人瓦力》，都无法得到满意的构

表了整部电影的气节和精华，更使电影的

败反派的方式不同，《超能陆战队》拯救

思。他们又马不停蹄地奔赴了麻省、哈

品质和创造性大大逾越了原作。

了反派。“以德报怨”的东方道德观代替 了“以牙还牙”的报仇套路。从惩罚转变

佛、卡内基梅隆等等多个大学的机器人实 验室。最终导演唐 • 霍尔（Don Hall）在卡

东西交融的文化元素

为拯救。一个理性的英雄，大爱既是拯救

Fransokyo”（旧京山）是

他人，更是拯救自己，这才是真正的Big

用在医疗场合的触感极佳的充气机器人手

《超能陆战队》故事背景所设定的一个虚

Hero，迪士尼用全新的观念升华了超级英

臂，这与大白的创作理念不谋而合，并且

拟未来城市。它不但杂糅了San Francis-

雄的新境界。（思彼思供稿，图片均来自

也启发了大白的身份设定。

co旧金山和Tokyo东京这两个城市名，而

于互联网）

“San

内基梅隆大学，发现了一个正在研制将被

大白的走路姿态也让迪士尼的设计师

且在场景设计上也处处可见东西交融的痕

们煞费苦心。快步趋行的粗短小腿上托着

迹。影片开头貌似金门大桥的桥梁却冒出

大大圆圆的肚子，分明就有企鹅的影子。

了东方建筑的飞檐，开满樱花的街道、书

而电量不足时跌跌撞撞的醉态，又恰似蹒

写方块字的店招、机器人比武时出的东洋

跚学步的婴儿。大白的表情充分体现了

伞和发髻、小正骑的助动车、空中电车、

“大道至简”的精神—不断作减法，把

日式神龛、甚至大白学的空手道，未来世

最初设计的5个表情和一张嘴，删除到只

界超级都市的每一帧画面都展现了日本风

剩两点一线。所以大白的快乐、忧伤、兴

情。

奋、好奇、着急、疲惫等等神态，尽在观 众自己的臆想和解读中。 虽然大白没有了“一颦一笑”的权

作为上届东京电影节的开幕电影， 《超能陆战队》的设计师们往返于旧金 山、东京和日本的其他城市实地采

利，但是主创在追求高度简化的同时，也

风，曾没日没夜地看各种日本动漫

不遗余力的对大白的动作细节精益求精。

找感觉，最终设计团队以旧金山地

眨眼、转身、侧头，无一不经过反反复复

图为基础搭建了旧京山，同时把在

的推敲和测试。千锤百炼始成器—在精

东京看到的路标、广告牌、霓虹灯等

雕细琢之下，大白终于以自己摇摇晃晃、

设计日式元素融入其中。这也是《超能

温柔暖心的气质征服了世界。他笨拙的外

陆战队》在日本已公映超过十一周，累计

表配合面部极简线条，加上胖乎乎软绵绵

票房突破88亿日元的原因之一。

的质感，让观众除了想要拥他入怀抑或被

《超能陆战队》所体现的价值观，也

China Economic Review | June 2015

37

文化地图

迪士尼的新时代 刚结束的第87届奥斯卡颁奖典礼

在

仅是一场美式英雄主义大片或是一个虚无

上，《超能陆战队》击败《驯龙高

缥缈的童话故事，而是在英雄背后面对亲

力量，也是新的英雄观—让更多人发掘

手2》、《盒子怪》等竞争对手，获得了

情和友情的困顿中的成长与善良仁爱的坚

他们心中的正义，勇敢与担当，让每个人

“最佳动画长片”奖。它还是去年票房表

守。诚然，传统的灰姑娘们与公主们的故

成为“英雄”，就像大白发现了小宏，小

现最好的电影之一。去年11月7日登陆北

事中大多充斥着不切实际的浪漫与过分渲

宏发现了他的伙伴。

美影院，首周末就取得5622万美元的开画

染的良缘，而对虽平凡却更质朴的亲情与

炫目的视觉观感和大白这个天真充

票房冠 冠 军。在中国大 成绩，成为当周北美票房冠军。在中国大

友情的讴歌则更能贴近观众，更容易与真

满萌趣的暖心机器人所串联的英雄战队，

万人 人 民币，打破了迪 迪 陆放映2天收获8500万人民币，打破了迪

实生活的体验产生共鸣。

呈现迪士尼的破茧求新。可以说，《超能

映 的首周票房纪录 纪录。 录。 士尼动画电影在华上映的首周票房纪录。

作为迪士尼收购漫威后的动画电影首

陆战队》象征着迪士尼已迈入了动画的新

民币，成为该周 该周 周票房 第二周获得1.87亿人民币，成为该周票房

秀，没有人会否认，与其说是迪士尼改编

时代！（思彼思供稿，图片均来自于互联

末收193万新 新台 新台币列 冠军。在台北，首周末收193万新台币列

了漫画版的《超能陆战队》，不如说是迪

网）

34 43万居冠。 。在俄罗斯 第四位，次周末以1343万居冠。在俄罗斯

士尼重创了漫画版的《超能陆战队》。电

有2 2300万美 美元的收入。 等少数海外市场也有2300万美元的收入。

影吸取了漫威塑造超级英雄上的种种精

》获 获得成功 功的同时，也 《超能陆战队》获得成功的同时，也

髓，但又不失自身动画那种在童真童趣

士尼 尼风格的 的 锐意革新。 使老粉丝看到了迪士尼风格的锐意革新。

间传递正能量的迪士尼魅力，惩恶扬善

先后 后收购皮 皮克 皮克斯（PIX可以说，在迪士尼先后收购皮克斯（PIX-

塑造英雄的同时还不忘卖萌逗乐，以自己

ve el）后 后 ，已经成为美 美 AR）和漫威（Marvel）后，已经成为美

的理解和手法拿捏出了属于自已的超级

迪 尼 近 年的动画片 迪士尼 片 国动漫的集大成者。迪士尼近年的动画片

英雄。影片中的英雄并不是自己出生

局限 限、跳 跳 出 公主与王子 子 已逐渐打破题材的局限、跳出公主与王子

入死、独当一面的孤家寡人，

经票 票房最 最 高 动画片《冰 冰 式故事的窠臼，曾经票房最高动画片《冰

小宏要有大白，还要有伙

）以姐妹情 情深取代了谈 雪奇缘》（Frozen）以姐妹情深取代了谈 战队 队》 情说爱。《超能陆战队》 情的 的 里也加重了亲情友情的 溢 砝码，自始至终洋溢 大 着小宏（Hiro）和大 正 白所代位的哥哥小正 弟之 之 （Tadashi）的兄弟之 未 情，对爱情则只字未 看， 提。从传统思维来看， 这种完全舍弃爱情的做 却并未使 使 法颇为大胆，但这却并未使 少情 情 感成 《超能陆战队》缺少情感成 的亲 亲情以 情以 分—兄弟间难舍的亲情以 及一帮朋友变身为陆战队的 陆 战队的 的 友情，使爱情的主旋律被亲 旋律 律被亲 情与友情的基调所替代，让 替代，让 代 这部动画电影老少咸宜、无 咸 宜、 、无 年龄差，且更适合于儿童。 于 儿童。 儿 因为对以往都是第二或第三 二或 或第三 或第 情感元素的亲情与友情的浓 友情 情的浓 情的 浓 彩重墨，让孩子看到的不仅 到 的不仅 到的不 不仅

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伴，才能够化险为夷，这是团结与信任的

China Economic Review | June 2015

CULTURE MAP

Creative hi-tech incubator Making cultural and creative business as vivid as poetry “Be creative or die” is a simple slogan frequently used in this era brimming with originality, and has become the motivation for people to continually bring forth new ideas

O

ver the past few years, the creative industries have seen a trend of stunningly fast development, and have increasingly become an important pillar industry for many countries and regions, taking a significant part in the optimization and upgrading of the overall industrial structure. As globalization deepens and international competition grows severe, the scale and level of the creative industries with innovation and creation as the core have become important criteria in measuring the comprehensive competitive power of a country or region.

Creative industries are the product of economic and social development,

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China Economic Review | June 2015

the combination of culture, science and technology, is able to not only produce abundant cultural products to meet the increasingly urgent spiritual, cultural and consumer needs of people, but also exploit people’s creative powers, offering opportunities for them to make full use of their talents, thus accordingly encouraging business startups and expansion of employment. From an urban development perspective, facing the external environment of the knowledge economy and globalization, and based on the internal needs of China’s urban industrial economic transformation, it is necessary and tactically important to develop creative industries.

How Technical and Creative Industry Fits into Urban Culture Through a combination of high technology and creative industry, innovation and technology can fit into urban culture and turn rich cultural resources into industrial strength.

High technology encourages progress and innovation in city life.

Converting new technology and ideas into traditional culture to achieve its potential, taking in diverse advanced cultural elements and realizing innovation while developing hi-tech creative industries and simultaneously accomplishing a continuation and promotion of local culture, serves the development and establishment of urban culture in an even better fashion, satisfying citizen’s real needs in life in the process of technological innovation. This is all worthy of consideration.

Therefore, technical and creative industries should be established on improvements in technology, and present more new products and services for people in ever-expanding forms.

Meanwhile, technical and creative industries should also combine cultural creation and technical innovation, providing unprecedented modes of cultural experience.

In the development of technical and creative industry, there should be an emphasis on the creative industry’s movement into traditional manufac-

CULTURE MAP

Hong Kong & Macau Creative And Innovative Design Centre Creative hi-tech incubator enhances industry vitality

Hong Kong and Macau have always been centers of technical and creative development in Asia. Through many decades of development, technical and creative industry has become an important indicator of urban economic development and soft power competition.

Faced with this opportunity, the Hong Kong & Macau Creative and Innovative Design Centre (hereafter referred to as CIDC) came into being based on its accumulated industry experience. With the application of diversified promotion modes such as building up creative platforms and overseas exhibitions and spot sales, CIDC raises the recognition of international creative and innovative corporations and helps domestic creative and innovative industry reach out to the world.

In effect, CIDC is an incubator, offering services of presenting, supporting, promoting, developing and expanding new technical products.

CIDC provides an international communication platform for technical and creative pioneers, designers, engineers, the self-employed and creative industry people in Hong Kong, Macau and the Mainland. It also provides services of high-tech brand optimization, creative and innovative application, creative technical incubation, financial service outsourcing and business matchmaking. With the comprehensive supporting services offered by CIDC, technical and creative corporations can focus their energy and innovation on developing their products and brand.

Building the most influential hightech creative incubator is the tireless pursuit and goal of CIDC, thus it is frequently present at peak creative forums through the region. Adhering to the principle of mutual intelligibility and common prosperity, CIDC gathers the hot trends of global creative industry,

features the quintessence of cultural innovation, draws inspiration from Chinese culture and boosts the development of China science and technology with elite individuals in all regions.

So far, CIDC has successfully taken part in multiple creative seminar and summit forums both in China and elsewhere. With its rich resources, CIDC is making great efforts to create opportunities for the development of China’s technical and creative industry.

CIDC has set up shop in Zhenjiang High-tech New City and The Bridge 8 Shanghai Creative Industry Park, and is planning to expand to over 100 cities with rich cultural heritage around the country, to create a top-class communication platform for technical creation and design which can inspire creation, share advanced technical ideas, and combine famous design enterprises from both at home and abroad. (The article is offered by SPACE)

China Economic Review | June 2015

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CULTURE MAP

ture, which will lead to a wider range of carriers for technology industry.

Also, technical and creative industry can give traditional commodities a brand new and unique meaning by the way it conveys and builds on ideas, emotions and tastes, elevating its cultural value.

With the additional force of branding, traditional commodities become the carrier of inherited science, technology and culture.

Combining new technologies of technical industry to creative industries by adopting modern hi-tech achievements, has not only accelerated the innovation of culture promotion channels and greatly speeded up upgrades to cultural exchange and promotion methods, but it has also changed the mode of traditional cultural produc-

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China Economic Review | June 2015

tion, management and propagation.

Technical and Creative Industry Promotes Economical Development By providing products and services with high scientific and technical content to the public, technical and creative industry can effectively stimulate domestic demand, and thus form new consumer markets. It has the advantages of low resource consumption, lower environmental pollution, higher economic returns and strong driving impact, and also possesses peculiarities of optimizing structure, expanding consumption, increasing employment, promoting leapfrog development and sustainability. This enables it to realize integrated development with other industries, pro-

mote industrial innovation and structural optimization, effectively boost economic structural adjustments and changes of developing modes.

Developing technical and creative industry helps to expedite industrial structure upgrades by deeply infusing traditional industry with grafted application technologies. With the help of creative industry developments and achievements, other industries can renew design and planning of products and services, and open up new brand and marketing strategies. The infusing of science, technology and originality adds more cultural connotations to the whole industry, realizing diversified competition, molding characteristic brands and enhancing competitiveness.

(The article is offered by SPACE)

CULTURE MAP

Innovative Management Composes Business Symphony A high-tech creative base like CIDC has become a platform for a creative and technical team to bring their talents into play, as well as a trendy creative center which aggregates office business, presentations, brand promotion and information exchanges.

For Mr. Huang Shaozhong, the founder of CIDC, to lead more young people to join the technical and creative industries, to realize their value and dreams with daring designs and splendid ideas, this itself is a achievement in which he find great pleasure and spares no effort.

Of course, all this comes from his deep research, his enthusiasm, and his pursuit of excellence in creative industry. As a senior strategy expert in the creative industry area, Mr. Huang Shaozhong has devoted himself to presenting his ideas of science and technology, culture and innovation to every friend and employee. He also exerts all his energies to select the most creative programs of superior quality around the country and recommend them to global readers, showing more people the vitality and great vision of China business in this creative era.

In his spare time, Mr Huang enjoy walking around various creative parks, taking a look at new technological products on display, visiting art exhibitions or finding a quiet corner to let his thoughts settle down. He thinks that the appearance of technical and creative industry parks will change the unitary domestic mode of cultural creative industry which has become increasingly fierce, opening new business forms and management modes such as the reconstruction of old downtown factory buildings and agglomeration of technical and creative industry. His role as a pioneer of creative industry reflects respect for developments of technical and culture, and enriches urban commerce.

(The article is offered by SPACE)

黄绍忠先生

创新经营，抒写商业诗篇 诸如港澳创意创新设计中心（CIDC）这般的高科技创意基 地，已成为国内外创意、科技团队施展才华的平台，也成为集 办公、展示、品牌推广、信息交流为一体的时尚创作中心。 对于CIDC创始人黄绍忠先生来说，让更多的年轻人参与 到科技创意产业中来，用越来越多的大胆设计及精彩创意，实 现人生的价值及梦想，这本身就是一件让他乐在其中并不遗余 力的事情。 当然，这一切都源于他对创意产业的深入与研究，并始终 保持着热情与追求。 作为一位资深的创意产业策略专家，黄绍忠先生多年来一 直致力将自己对于科技、文化、创意的理念带给每一位朋友和 员工，亦是不遗余力地选取全国范围内最具创新理念的优质项 目向全球读者推介，希望让更多人看到中国商业在创意年代的 活力与愿景。 工作之余，黄绍忠先生总喜欢在各种创意园区里随处走 走，看看正在展出的新型科技产品，瞧瞧正在举办的艺术活 动或是借由这灵动又独具匠心的静隅来沉淀一整天的思绪。他 认为科技创意产业园区的出现将改变国内竞争日趋激烈的单一 的文化创意产业形式，开启了城市中心旧厂房改造以及科技创 意产业集聚等全新的商业形态和运营模式，是创意产业的先行 者，是对科技文化发展的尊重，也让城市商业更加丰富生动、 引人入胜。 （思彼思供稿）

China Economic Review | June 2015

45

文化地图

创意高科技孵化器 让文创商业生动如诗 “无创意，毋宁死”的一句简单口号在这个遍地都是创意的时代里被人们频繁提及，继而成为人们 不断开发新创意的动力。

高科技产业载体的范围大大开拓。此外， 科技创意产业可以通过观念、感情和品位 的传达和塑造，赋予传统意义的商品某种 独特、全新的意义，从而提升其文化价值 和品牌附加力，使传统的商品转变成了传 承科技文化的载体。 而科技产业的新技术与创意产业结 合在一起，在创意产业采用现代高新科技 的成果，不仅是促进了文化推广渠道的创 新，也大大推进了文化交流和推广方式的 升级换代，改变了传统文化生产经营和传 播模式。

科技创意产业推动经济发展

近

将科技创意产业与城市文化相融合

通过为人们提供科技含量较高的产品

和地区的重要支柱产业，在产业结

通过高科技技术与创意产业有机结

和服务，逐步有效刺激内需，从而形成新

构优化升级中发挥了重要作用，并呈现集

合，将创新思维和科技与城市文化相结合，

的消费市场。科技创意产业具有资源消耗

群式、跨越式发展态势。在全球化趋势不

将丰厚的文化资源优势转化为产业优势。

低、环境污染小、经济回报高、带动效应

年来，创意产业日益成为许多国家

断加强、国际间竞争日趋激烈的今天，以

高科技促进了城市生活的不断进步与

强的优势，且具备优结构、扩消费、增就

创新、创意为核心的创意产业的发展规模

创新。如何将新的科技技术与创意注入到

业、促跨越、可持续的独特性，可以与其

和程度，已经成为衡量一个国家和地区综

传统文化之中，使得传统文化得以继承和

他产业融合发展，促进产业创新和结构优

合竞争力高低的重要标志之一。

发展；如何在发展科技创意产业的同时既

化，有效推动经济结构调整和发展方式转 变。

创意产业是经济社会发展到一定阶段

能够吸收各种先进文化，实现创新，又能

的产物，是文化、科技和产品的结合。不

让本土文化不致中断并得以发扬；在科技

发展科技创业产业有利于促进产业

仅可以提供日益丰富的文化产品，以满足

创新过程中，如何能够更好地为城市文化

结构的升级换代。科技创意产业可以通过

人们日益增多、日益迫切的精神需求、文

的发展建设服务，满足城市居民生活的实

应用技术的嫁接，比较深入地融入到传统

化需求和消费需求。同时创意产业还能够

际需要，这些都值得思考。

产业，从而实现产业结构的升级换代。而

开发人的创造力和潜能，给人们提供发挥

因此，科技创意产业应立足于技术的

其他行业可借助创意产业的发展，或应用

才能的机会，从而带动更多的人实现创业

进步，将更多更新的产品和服务以越来越

其成果，更新产品和服务的设计与策划，

和就业渠道。从城市发展层面来看，面对

多的形式呈现在人们面前。同时，将文化

开辟新的“品牌战略”和“营销战略”。

知识经济和经济全球化的外部环境，基于

创意和科技创新结合在一起，为人们提供

亦可通过科技和创意的融入，附加更多的

中国城市产业经济转型的内在需求，中国

了前所未有的新的文化体验形式。

文化内涵，实现差异化竞争，或塑造有特

发展创意产业具有其必要性、重要性和策 略性。

46

China Economic Review | June 2015

科技创意产业的发展中，特别需注意 创意产业向传统制造业的渗透，可以使得

色的品牌，从而提升竞争力。（思彼思供 稿）

文化地图

港澳创意创新设计中心CIDC 创意高科技孵化器，催生产业活力 港澳地区长期以来都是亚洲的科技创意发展中心，历经十余年 发展，科技创意产业已成为城市经济发展与城市软实力竞争的 重要指标。港澳创意创新设计中心（HONG KONG & MACAU CREATIVE & INNOVATIVE DESIGN CENTRE，简 称：CIDC）在此契机下，以积淀多年的行业经验应时而生， 通过搭建创新平台及海外展销等多元化的推广模式，提升国际 创意创新公司在中国的知名度，并帮助中国科技创意产业走向 世界。 可以说，CIDC是一个为世界新型科技产品提供展示、支 持、推介、开发、拓展的孵化器。为香港、澳门以及内地的科 技创意先锋、设计师、工程师及创新产业、创业人员提供一个 国际化的交流平台，提供高科技品牌优化、创意创新应用、创 新科技孵化、金融服务外包、商贸配对等全方位服务。CIDC的 多样功能为参与高科技创意企业提供了全面配套服务，科技创 新企业可以集中力量和创意去发展自身产品及品牌。 “打造中国最具影响力的高科技创意孵化器”是CIDC孜 孜不倦的追求，也是CIDC笔耕不辍的目标。于是CIDC的身影 时常闪耀在两岸巅峰创意论坛、聚焦全球创意热点，网罗文化 创意精髓，携两岸科技精英，汲取中国文化根本转型为创意概 念，秉持互通共荣的原则，助推中国科技创意产业的发展。时 至今日，CIDC已成功参与多个海内外创意研讨会及高峰论坛， 凭借丰富的资源，努力为中国科技创意产业的发展提供契机。 目前，CIDC已落户镇江科技新城、上海8号桥创意产业园 区，计划拓展至全国100余个城市，以期在中国这些文化底蕴深 厚且极具潜力的城市，打造能够激发创意灵感、分享国内外先 进科技理念，并汇聚国内外著名设计企业的中国顶尖科技创意 和设计互动交流平台。（思彼思供稿）

China Economic Review | June 2015

47

地产报告

武汉领衔全球最活跃 新建购物中心市场第一名 世邦魏理仕发布《全球购物中心开发最活跃城市》报告

2

015年5月4日，北京 – 据世邦魏理仕

的入驻率入市。因此，尽管武汉去年供应

上的供应都集中在外围非核心商圈。而这

最新调查显示，2015年，全球购物中

偏多，零售市场仍然取得不俗的表现，全

些郊区商圈的客群结构以周边居民为主，

心开发继续呈现增长态势。新兴市场，特

年租金增幅达7.0%。这将给其它正在面临

世邦魏理仕认为，随着轨道交通的外延以

别是亚洲市场，仍占主导支配地位。这是

同样挑战的中国其他市场提供了一个很好

及城乡结合部大规模居住社区的开发，将

世邦魏理仕连续第四年对全球171个主要

的借鉴。”

刺激中国主要城市的郊区零售业迎来发展 新机遇。

城市购物中心的发展水平进行研究，调查 覆盖超过20,000平方米的购物中心面积， 不包括零售仓储和工厂直销店。

全球十大最活跃在建购物中心市场 排名，中国占九席

示：“在目前商业地产整体市场泡沫风险

世邦魏理仕中国区总裁潘可维表

2014年，全球在建购物中心总面积

加大之时，大体量的开发实际上存在一定

武汉超越成都，领衔全球最活跃新 建购物中心市场第一名

为3900万平方米，其中，亚太区在建购

风险。目前，全球经济增速放缓，加之不

物中心面积超过3200万平方米，并且超过

断变换的国内政策导向，一些购物中心项

2014年，全球购物中心新开业面积

60%的面积都在中国。在全球十大最活跃

目，由于资金链断裂，导致项目停工，或

为1140万平方米，高于2013年的1060万

在建购物中心市场排名中，中国占九席，

者一些由非传统商业地产开发领域转型而

平方米。在世邦魏理仕监测的全球最活跃

达到开展本项调查以来的最高峰值。上海

来的开发商，因缺乏操盘经验，项目设

新建购物中心市场前20排名中，中国城市

以410万平方米的在建购物中心面积排名

计、施工难以对接商户实际功能需求，消

占据半壁江山，累计贡献570万平方米的

该榜单第一位，紧随其后的是深圳（340

防、环评等问题频出，或付出巨额改造费

落成面积。其中，武汉凭借8个项目，临

万平方米），成都（300万平方米）。据

用，或被迫中途改变项目用途，导致项目

近100万平方米的交付面积拔得头筹。该

资料统计，中国的在建购物中心项目超过

推迟落成。未来，开发风险、市场风险继

榜单2013年的冠军得主成都，以98.1万

20个。

续加大，必将更加考验开发商的综合开发

需要指出的是，中国一线城市80%以

平方米的成绩位居第二，紧随其后的是北

能力和全程营运能力。”

京（92.6万平方米）及重庆（77.6万平方

全球主要在建购物中心市场

米）。值得一提的是，前三甲贡献了整个 中国市场新建购物中心面积的一半。 世邦魏理仕中国区研究部负责人、执

450

行董事陈仲伟点评：“近年来，大量购物

400

中心的涌现、电子商务的崛起以及中国经

350

济增长的放缓均对零售物业的营运带来一

300

定的冲击，不少业主正日益面临招商困难 的局面。在此环境下，业主的商场运营能 力也变得越来越重要。以武汉为例，2014 年武汉全市录得接近100万平方米的新增

250 200 150

零售供应，当中绝大部分均位于非核心商

100

圈。然而，得益于发展商合理的商场设

50

计、准确的市场定位以及良好的招商运营

0

经验，大部分新落成项目都能以超过80%

50

万平方米

China Economic Review | June 2015

上海

深圳

成都

重庆

广州

北京

南京

武汉

曼谷

天津

London’s Tech City Will See Residential Prices Increase JLL acts as sole sales agent for the launch of The Atlas Building in London

A

s the US Silicon Valley becomes increasingly saturated, more and more attention has been paid to London’s future “Silicon Valley” – Tech City, which is located in Shoreditch. According to JLL’s research, with higher office rents and residential prices, increasing demand and the growing number of prime buildings, Shoreditch has been transformed from the previous so-called “city fringe” into London’s core area.

Shoreditch is the focus of the digitalmedia and creative-digital cluster, the so-called London “Tech City”. The mix of businesses is far more diverse than these stereotypes suggest, even if the importance and disruptive effects of the Digital Economy are evident across the many sectors that are present.

With almost 300,000 new jobs expected to be created in central boroughs over the next ten years, the definition of core is expanding. Reflecting changing lifestyles, this “larger” Central London will incorporate a greater percentage of other uses, particularly housing.

As a result, there is a large number of high-profile residential schemes being developed across the area, most notably in Shoreditch. According to JLL Research, residential prices in these submarkets are expected to grow by 17.4% over the next three years and over 29.4% in the next five years.

Michelle Liu, Head of International Residential, JLL Shanghai, said: “London government has considered the development of Tech City as the focus of its municipal planning, with a number of high-tech giants, such as Google, Facebook, Amazon and Intel already building their presence or ready to move in. The business clients and tenants brought by these leading companies are able to stimulate the leasing sector in this area, driving housing prices up, most notably the house prices along City Road. In addition, following the launch of AIIB, the applying and involving countries will work together more closely to development. Britain is the first major Western country to apply for the membership of AIIB, which means the Sino-British relationship will get closer and closer in the future, and

the development of the two countries will be mutually intertwined. As one of the global leading real estate consulting companies, JLL has a history of over 200 years and just celebrated its 20th anniversary in the Chinese market last year.

It will provide Chinese consumers and investors investing in Britain or foreign countries with a first-hand and most valuable real estate research report.”

Driven by increased demand, highspec office and residential schemes are being developed across the area, including The Atlas Building in Shoreditch that is due to launch from late April to May. The Atlas Building is a landmark mixed-use development consisting of a striking 40-storey residential tower and a 10-storey office building, as well as a new public piazza and retail space.

Due for completion at the end of 2018, the residential tower is a collection of 302 highly specified apartments, including studios, one, two and three bedroom apartments and penthouses.

The building contains an extensive range of lifestyle amenities for residents, including a gym, spa and ground floor swimming pool, cinema room, 24-hour concierge and security and private residents lounge. Directly fronting City Road, The Atlas Building is in a convenient and buzzing Zone 1 location and in prime position to access the diverse areas of Shoreditch, Islington, Farringdon and the City.

China Economic Review | June 2015

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

REAL ESTATES OVERSEA

REAL ESTATE

Mapletree celebrates topping out of Mapletree Business City Shanghai Mapletree Business City Shanghai sets a new benchmark for Shanghai’s office market

S

hanghai, China, 21 April 2015 – Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd (“Mapletree” or the “Group”) today celebrated the topping out of Mapletree Business City Shanghai in China. A franchise of Mapletree’s award winning flagship development in Singapore – Mapletree Business City (MBC) – the new premier business hub in Shanghai’s Minhang district, is designed to cater to the growing needs of multinational corporations and large Chinese companies for high-

52

China Economic Review | June 2015

quality, cost-effective office space.

Officials from the Municipal Government of Minhang District together with Mapletree’s senior management attended the topping out ceremony.

Strategically located in the heart of southwest Shanghai’s emerging Minhang District, MBC Shanghai offers a total gross floor area of 200,000 square metres (sqm) of international Grade-A office space which can accommodate to up to 20,000 working professionals. Consisting of three 7-storey, three

16-storey and one 20-storey office towers, this premier development features innovative architecture built to exacting design specifications and incorporates state-of-the-art technology and infrastructure.

Situated directly above two metro lines, MBC Shanghai enjoys excellent connectivity to all parts of Shanghai and is in the immediate vicinity of topnotch amenities including international schools, 5-star hotels and Hongqiao Transportation Hub – currently one of

REAL ESTATE

the largest and busiest transportation hub in the world.

MBC Shanghai is further complemented by the adjacent 120,000 sqm VivoCity Shanghai shopping mall, another franchise of Mapletree’s signature retail brand - VivoCity. The shopping mall will provide office tenants and local residents with an extensive range of retail, dining, entertainment and lifestyle experiences.

Both MBC Shanghai and VivoCity Shanghai have been recognised for their environmentally sustainable design as they were awarded Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) precertification Gold and Silver, respectively. And the two brands have together garnered “Best Chinese Futura Mega Project Bronze Award” at the 2014 MIPIM Asia Awards, one of the most prestigious international property awards.

Mr Quek Kwang Meng, Mapletree’s Regional Chief Executive Officer for China and India commented about the ceremony, “Mapletree first entered Greater China in 2005 and today, the region has become our largest overseas market where the group has over S$7 billion assets under management” said Mr Quek. “The topping out of MBC Shanghai not only reinforces the Group’s development track record in China but it also affirms our commitment to grow across all real estate asset classes in China.”

Jointly developed by Mapletree’s private equity platforms, Mapletree India China Fund and Mapletree China Opportunity Fund II, MBC Shanghai and VivoCity Shanghai is the Group’s largest single investment in the China market to date.

The full development is slated for completion in 2016.

上海丰树商业城 顺利封顶 打造上海办公空间新标杆

越的设计规范，融尖端科技和完备设施为 一体。 上海丰树商业城居于两条地铁线上 盖，坐享便捷交通服务设施，可轻松抵达 上海各处。项目紧邻高品质配套设施，如 国际学校，五星级酒店等，以及目前世界 上最大最繁忙的交通枢纽之一 — 上海虹桥 交通枢纽。 作为丰树集团的另一标志零售品牌， 毗邻的上海怡丰城购物中心建筑面积达12 万平方米，可以给丰树商业城的企业租户 以及周边居民提供包括零售、餐饮、娱乐 和生活方式等在内的全方位生活体验。 凭借可持续发展的设计理念，上海丰 树商业城和上海怡丰城分别获得美国绿色 建筑能源与环境设计先锋奖（LEED）的 金级及银级预认证。同时，这两个项目还 荣膺蜚声国际的2014亚洲国际房地产大奖

中

国，上海，2015年4月21日—丰

（MIPIM Asia）的最佳中国未来大型发展

树产业私人有限公司（“丰树”

项目（Best Chinese Futura Mega Proj-

或“丰树集团”）今日正式宣布旗下上海

ect）铜奖。

丰树商业城项目封顶。上海丰树商业城延

丰树集团中国与印度区域首席执行官

续了丰树集团屡获殊荣的旗舰项目——新

郭光明先生在本次封顶仪式上表示：“丰

加坡丰树商业城的成功开发和管理经验，

树首次进入中国市场是在2005年，该市场

将在上海闵行区呈现全新商业中心，旨在

如今已经成为了集团最大的海外市场，管

顺应跨国公司和大型国企对高品质、高性

理着超过70亿新元的资产。”郭先生还补

价比办公空间日益旺盛的需求。

充道，“上海丰树商业城的封顶不仅进一

闵行区区长等政府领导及丰树集团高

步巩固了集团在中国的开发业绩，同时还

层出席了此次封顶仪式，共同庆祝这一里

印证了我们在中国开发各个类别资产的承

程碑式的重要时刻。

诺。”

上海丰树商业城战略性的坐落于上海

拥有丰树印度中国基金和丰树中国机

西南角新兴崛起的闵行区核心位置，将提

遇基金II作为其私募资本平台，上海丰树商

供总建筑面积达20万平方米并可容纳2万

业城和上海怡丰城是集团迄今在中国单体

工作人群的国际甲级办公空间。这一全新

投资额度最大的房地产项目。 整个开发项目预计将于2016年竣

力作包括了由3座7层、3座16层及1座20 层组成的办公楼群，均遵循创新建筑和卓

工。

China Economic Review | June 2015

53

专访

缔造生活品位 成就城市梦想 世茂地产集团商管公司总经理吴艳芬女士专访

秉

承“缔造生活品位，成就城市梦

商业的方向，将成为继世茂大型商业综合

为此本刊特意对世茂地产集团商管公

想”的宗旨，世茂集团重拳出击，

体布局版图之后的核心发力点。52+Mini

司总经理吴艳芬女士做了专访，挖掘更多

隆重推出了国内首个创新型社区商业代表

Mall将依托世茂集团强大的背景，快速实

商业智慧与细节。

作“52+”品牌，通过空间、业态、运营

现自我突破，力争在2018年内建成30~40

和数字营销四大维度展现“以小见大”的

个项目，致力与优质商户一起共同扩展并

价值模型，实现社区商业的全方位创新与

深耕更加广阔的市场，实现共赢的局面，

变革，以“一千米的臻享生活”理念，致

力争做社区购物中心的佼佼者.

力于为每个城市家庭的幸福生活提供更便 捷舒适、高端智能的选择。

从大数据市场的情况来分析，世茂此

52+Mini Mall有那些优势呢？首先是

战略方向其实是顺势而为。现在好多大企

空间创新，革新的主题、场景、生活化设

业发现重资产投资的风险越来越大，创新

较之传统的社区型商业为消费者所提

计，极大提升消费者体验；其次是业态创

少，越来越多的商场千篇一律，经营能力

供的超市、菜场、药店、托儿所等单一、

新，以跨界混搭、生活服务的集群、O2O

跟不上，商品部分也严重同质化，毫无创

基础的服务功能，52+从现代家庭追求生

等业界领先模式，促进社区生活的品质与

新，多以把商场开出来为最终目标。一旦

活品质，注重营造良好和谐家庭氛围的诉

效率；再后是运营创新，在内容、空间和

这类型商场开出来，经营的风险就更为巨

求出发。52+寓意“我爱家”，代表着无

环境运营上做到极致，为商户和消费者提

大。

论一周5天的工作日、2天休息日，还是一

供最专业和高效的服务。此外，整合大

近些年，电商的蓬勃发展也给大型购

年中的52个星期，在迈出家门短短1000米

数据运营平台的精准营销更是52+点睛之

物中心带来了巨大的冲击。原来支付租金

的空间里，每一个人，每一个家庭都能臻

笔。利用 O2O系统汇集线上线下店铺及消

能力较强的合作伙伴们，慢慢的离开线下

享到精美绝伦的美食与优品，体验新奇有

费者信息，应用大数据来分析与定位精准

实体店，给我们也带来了一定的压力。去

趣的服务与项目。

营销，实现有效互动与推送，将高端的电

年的数据也表明这一变化带来的收租能力

子技术、数字化及移动媒体融为一体，力

下滑。

Mini Mall将是“52+”品牌以及世茂 房地产重点发展的商业产品，是世茂社区

54

世茂为什么会有这样一个与众不 同的战略方向？

China Economic Review | June 2015

求为消费者打造突破完美新奇体验。

我们将要面对的消费者是年龄越来越

专访 小、见识越来越多、生活节奏越来越快，

52+Mini Mall还没有一个准确的未来发展

个性化越来越明显，他们要求的是更便利

定位，还是要看这一两年落地的情况。在

的服务、更高的享受和体验感。如果购物

获得更多的数据和社会反响之后，我们才

不便捷，他们宁可选择电商。恰恰就是在

会知道更有战略性的扩张目标，届时对于

这种情况下，世茂的社区商业战略可以说

我们优秀管理团队的复制能力也将会是一

是一个蓝海，因为它紧邻家园。如果离家

个新挑战。

很近的一个商业社区能够满足你生活所

您们将会怎么面对未来将会出现 的市场竞争？

需，购物就会被刺激、发生。 我们要把商业变得更加的轻巧灵便， 让周围1000米以内的人都喜欢，只为他

世茂的商业社区定位是精准的，我

们服务、为他们生、为满足他们的需求而

们和其他大型的购物中心不同，大型购物

活。忠诚常客的消费也会是惊人的。

中心辐射的区域很大，而我们的目标是以

基于此，我们就能逐步解决如招商

“一千米的臻享生活”理念，致力于为每

难、投资大、配套多等多处痛点，相应的

个城市家庭的幸福生活提供更便捷舒适、 高端智能的选择，在迈出家门短短1000米

人工和管理成本也会降低。 而且，因为客户群定位精准，我们

用率、增加跟消费者产生互动的空间；我

的空间里，每一个人，每一个家庭都能臻

就可以更深度的回访，并结合数据分析，

们也不会放弃对每一个空间的利用，像户

享到精美绝伦的美食与优品，体验新奇有

准确定位他们的消费点以及热衷的品牌商

外的攀岩、户内楼层间的滑梯，把原来无

趣的服务与项目。所以我认为我们不会和

户，达到为消费者作出商业定制的目的，

效的空间变成有效的，这些原来不被重视

别人成为竞争对手。

更符合消费者的实际需求。

的灰色空间，创新之后的租金收益甚至会

这种战略是根据消费需求所转化出的 业态形式。世茂的这个战略方向恰恰是顺 势而为，不是逆水行舟。

对于入驻的商户来说，52+ Mini Mall给他们带来的是哪些机遇和 实际的利益？

比其他商铺还要高。

52+，爱上52+，这才是我们发展过程中

婴区域提供最新的空气净化系统，过滤

的核心问题。我们的每个社区店，必须有

以 和顶级的空气 PM2.5、1.0和细菌，可以和顶级的空气

所不同，有所创新，这样才能获得持久的

息 息地。 质量同步，是一个健康的栖息地。

成功。

创 创新服务，如 同时我们还提供很多创新服务，如 化 化地设置了大量 手机免费充电，我们人性化地设置了大量 样 样的服务会让消 随处可用的充电设备。这样的服务会让消

他们更深层次的诉求，而不只是单纯的甲

而 而久之上升为依 费者对我们产生信任，久而久之上升为依

方、乙方的收租和给租的关系。我们希望

。 赖，最终在精神上认可52+。

商家更稳健的开店发展计划与回报。

我们精心开 开辟 针对可爱的小宝宝们，我们精心开辟 囊 囊公寓”。“胶 了宝宝的休息区—“胶囊公寓”。“胶

我们也会和商家一起培养商家的团

囊公寓”半封闭、可消毒、提供一次性床 提供一次性床

队，让商家的团队被重视、被关照，减少

单、宝宝尿湿后的临时衣裤，以及洗衣烘 裤 裤，以及洗衣烘

流动率，多一分社区般的亲情。

干设备。宝宝安稳了，大人也就舒心了， 人 人也就舒心了，

我们还不惜成本打造52+Mini Mall线

的工作和不断的创新让周围的人真正喜欢

意 。例如在母 我们还有人性化的创意。例如在母

我们会提供给商家更多的服务，解决

能够规模化地成长，我们的扩张会提供给

我们所要挑战的是自己。通过努力

可以再去购物、娱乐，享受在52+的生活。 在 在52+的生活。

上平台，并承担构建成本，但收益部分和 商家共享；在虚拟空间和智能化对社区和 消费者的管控方面，提供给商家更多的盈 利点，这个也是我们比较大的优势。

对于世茂52+Mini Mall在未来 alll在未来 几年发展布局，您是怎么看待 怎 怎么看待 的呢？ 世茂的土地储备非常多，我们 多 多，我们

请谈谈52+ Mini Mall还有什么独 特之处？ 52+Mini Mall以服务为本，力求每个 细节都要人性化。 我们在空间方面做了很多的优化和创 新，由于我们迷你，就要尽可能地增大使

有100多个非常成熟的社区，并且 区 区，并且 在不断购买新地，不断进入新的城 入 入新的城 市。我们的目标是希望快速复制 速 速复制 52+这样的社区商业，因为小商 为 小商 业还是要依靠规模才能引发资 发 发资 本市场的关注。就目前来看

世茂地产集团商管公司总经理 吴艳芬女士

S E R V I C E D A PA R T M E N T

Stanford residences Connect an ideal home with style in Shanghai

S

ituated in the cultural and commercial epicenter of Jing An, Stanford Residences combines five-star luxury with the comfort of home. Modern amenities are couched within the slick, art deco-style of awardwinning architect Philip Liao, and the iconic six towered Symphony concept.

The residences recognize the importance of natural beauty, featuring 60 different varieties of trees from internationally renowned landscaping specialist Aoya Design.

The city’s main artery, Metro Line 2 is practically at your doorstep, granting you access to the city’s main financial district, the high speed train and both Hongqiao and Pudong International airports. Nanjing Xi Lu, Jing An Kerry Centre and other shopping hubs are also a mere stone’s throw away.

Stanford Residences is located at the

56

China Economic Review | June 2015

crossroads of education and health. A short metro ride gets residents to United Asia Huashan Medical Service as well as the Yew Chung International School in Hongqiao, Concordia International School Shanghai, British and American schools of Shanghai.

A veritable cultural cornucopia abounds with the Shanghai Museum, Shanghai’s Culture Square and Art Museum and the nearby 3-D and IMAX multiplexes. Fuel up after perusing the sights at a variety of dining options including white-linen hotel banquet halls and mid-level restaurants like La Creperie and Henkes. And if you like to cook, you’ll find all you need at nearby city’super, Ole and SOGO supermarkets.

Stanford Residences offers a choice of several spacious apartment layouts including 3 bedrooms, 3 bedrooms

and 1 study room, duplex and penthouse units. Each are equipped with IDD phones, free WiFi, elegant furnishings, individually-controlled airconditioning and floor heating and contemporary lighting. The kitchens are distinguished by renowned German appliance brands. There’s even a VIP lounge where you can catch up on your reading and carouse with neighbors.

The clubhouse has a state-of-the-art gym, heated swimming pools, saunas, a private dining room and an après pali wine and cigar bar means you don’t even have to venture out for entertainment. Best of all, the little tykes can occupy themselves at a kids’ zone while the adults unwind.

Five-star amenities include 24-hour concierges, housekeeping service and much much more.

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

Q&A : JOHN WONG

Service with a fragrance Service apartment operator Lanson Place has taken on a new property in central Shanghai aimed at top executives, and sees further market growth for several years to come

T

he services residence market has grown at lightning speed in China’s top cities in the past decade, and the pace is unlikely to slow anytime soon due to the continuing stream of projects requiring high-level executives and managers to be in place for months or even a year or more. So says John Wong, Head of China Operations for serviced apartment operator Lanson Place that has just launched a new property on the eastern end of one of Shanghai’s main thoroughfares, Huaihai Road, right beside the one remaining section of the old Shanghai city wall. China Economic Review asked him about Lanson Place’s strategy for expansion in the China market.

Where is market for serviced residences in China going?

It’s all over the place. Every city and every location is different. In Shanghai, five years ago, there were only 3,000 or so brand-name serviced apartments.

Now there are about 15,000. And that is just the name brands. Smaller ones are uncountable. Most of them are running at over 80% occupancy. So the figures tell me the market is good. There are so many expatriates here on a long-term project basis, and I see this continuing for quite some years. I would expect the total number of serviced apartments to increase too. When you have 80% occupancy, what are you going to do? Build another one. It’s as simple as that. So I see the market continuing to grow for at

China Economic Review | June 2015

least the next three to five years. There are so many upcoming projects. Look at Disney. By the way, we are the biggest Disney vendor. There are so many new projects coming up, it’s difficult to keep track.

How many properties does Lanson Place have now?

In China, we have three in Shanghai and one in Beijing. We are going to open another one in Shanghai with 200 units at the end of this year. Then there is a property in Pudong that is supposed to be for sale, but the sale market is not so good, so we are going to take 30 or 40 units out and rent them as service apartments, which will be happening in about three months. We have other projects ongoing in second tier cities, which you will hear about very soon, in a couple of months. Right now, I have to say I think we are concentrat-

ing a little too much in a niche market.

The rental rates dictate the clientele, and when everything is so expensive only CEOs can stay, which is not very healthy sometimes. If you want to expand, then you have to expand your clientele base. That is why we developed this “By Lanson Place” concept, which lets people in, especially in second-tier cities. In the second-tier cities, there are far fewer expats. It is a trend, and every company including our own is localizing. Maybe IBM has a project in Ningbo, and instead of sending an American over there, they will probably send some guy from Shanghai or Beijing. They will still require serviced apartments in these second-tier cities, but outside the major cities, it will be very project-based, maybe three-tosix months, six-to-nine months. For instance Intel opening a factory in Dalian. They moved families over for nine

months or a year, and then they left, leaving the local teams to run things.

That’s the trend, and that’s the market we are trying to take advantage of. If you blindly focus on the expat market, you will fail. Local people now have money, and they are willing to spend.

Business is business.

What is the key differentiator with a serviced residence property?

Lanson Place prices are not cheap. My chairman always asks me, how do you justify charging 20% more than other places? I say, I can’t, it’s because of me and the staff, that’s all. Otherwise I don’t see why they will pay the extra.

It’s basically the same linen, the same bed. The only difference is the service team and the feeling they create.

The software. There’s really nothing else. And it’s the most difficult thing to do. So the first thing we address is the staff turnover rate. I guess we are the number one lowest staff turnover rate in China because we implemented both external and internal branding, and we made it clear that everything comes from within. We try to have the staff live as much as possible like the guests. So that’s why we have an extremely nice staff canteen and locker room, everything is personalized including glasses and cups. Not like a state-owned company where they give you a cheap glass. We encourage them to live a very healthy life. We organize activities for them, try to train them well, try to manage the staff with reason, and that’s why most staff stay for a long time. The result of that is that we can reach deep into our client side. That’s how you build up the relationship, and guests really trust these people.

How does Aroma Garden differ from other Lanson Place properties?

We designed it very much with young executives in mind. It’s somewhat different from the model of our other serviced residences. The target clientele are different. The rooms are designed to accommodate younger lifestyles. People nowadays want to sit at a counter and work. With the Serviced Suites by Lanson Place concept, we are targeting project teams that stay for shorter periods. But of course if it is popular with the more senior managers for longer stays, we’ll take it. What you find with Lanson Place is that the design is always contemporary French and neutral to suit most people’s tastes. But everything is always available. No extreme color schemes. A lot of storage space.

This building is a little bit different from other Lanson Place properties.

We made everything rything very simple, which results in lesss power u usage. sage. There’s a 24-hour gym,, and a Yoga Y room. It’s symbolic of what hat we are trying to offer personal space. e.

We used to o set up service serrvice residences to look like a family re residence, esidence, filled with things, eight setti settings ings of crockery. But then people hav have ve a hard time putting their own things thinggs in. Not here.

It is clear and d simple. But everything is always available. ilable. It’s entirely up to them, you live ve your own o way. And that’s the basicc philosop philosophy phy of Lanson Place. People eople are changing the way they hey live. No o one uses alarm clocks ocks any more m but they need d plug outlets outtlets everywhere. We have to keep the phone even ne here, ev ven though we know now that no n one uses it anymore, but nymore, bu ut Wi-Fi is important. ortant. Wee

have only 79 units here in Aroma Garden but we have 100 megs of Wi-Fi access. So quick quick quick for every room. Everything is efficient, because that’s how people live these days.

When do you expect to hit 80% occupancy in this property?

I tell the owner a year and a half. I tell my CEO six months. With this location, I think, no problem. It’s a great location, which is what you usually find with Lanson Place. It’s always in a city center, or close by as with this one. Plus I have a track record. I opened Lanson Place in Beijing ahead of the Olympics and we started renting it out as soon as the Olympics were over and within three months we were at 60% when everybody else was dying, lowering their rents. We became the market leader very fast. By April of 2009, we were at 80%.

Head of China Operations, Lanson Place John China Ch Chi C hiiWong h na n aE Economic Eco Ec cco on no nom om omic ic Re R Rev Review evview iie ew | Jun JJune un ne 2 2015 015 01 0 1 15 5

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

Q&A: JOHN WONG

59 5 9

B U S I N E S S E D U C AT I O N F O C U S

An MBA abroad gives you the edge “MBA preferred” is one of the most popular phrases in modern business job listings.

MBA graduates are sought after for their ability to think critically, deal with ambiguity and solve complex problems. Add international experience to your MBA education and you can graduate with an extra edge, launching you directly into the global market.

E

mployers in today’s market look for candidates who have completed an MBA in a relevant area, have international exposure and can succeed in the global English-speaking business world.

EU Business School has been providing an international business education in English for over 40 years and has four campuses located in four of Europe’s most influential business hubs: Barcelona, Munich, Geneva and Montreux.

Campus transfers between semesters are not only possible, but encouraged, and enable students to discover and enjoy exciting international experiences. EU also offers various exchange programs with some of the world’s most prestigious universities. Their agreement with Pace University in New York City, for example, gives MBA students the chance to complete two semesters in the USA. and graduate with two qualifications from two continents.

Staying on-campus is an international experience too. EU has a community of over 100 different nationalities, and 98% of its members speak more than two languages. By immersing students in a multicultural and multilingual environment early on, EU not only equips students with the necessary skills to

60

China Economic Review | June 2015

effectively conduct international business, but also facilitates them with an established global network of valuable contacts for their professional futures.

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B U S I N E S S E D U C AT I O N F O C U S

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China Economic Review | June 2015

61

商学院教育

向毛泽东学企业品牌管理 随着全球化的大发展，中国的许多企业开始接触国际企业，并努力吸收着西方的先进理念与知识。 有意思的是，在这个过程中许多人也开始发现，其实一代战略军事家毛泽东也是一个卓然出众的管 理大师，无论是他的管理思想还是管理方式，都充分充满了东方文化的智慧、体现出了东方文化特 性。 文 | 李光斗

企业品牌管理方面，中国人曾将德

在

文化中的核心价值观。企业文化是当前管

鲁克、韦尔奇奉若企业管理的神

理学研究的热门之一。而核心价值观的提

明，他们的理论则被奉为宝典，但是在经

炼和培养，又是企业文化建设中的重点和

历了一阵狂热之后，许多人发现，在企业

难点。由此我们可以看出毛泽东对关于组

品牌管理的实践中，那些曾被奉若神明的

织核心价值观建设的重视。而也正是这一

西方管理学理论遭遇了尴尬，西方许多的

使命的树立，为整个组织的发展方向、行

管理理论并不适合中国的企业。

为方式提供了指引与精神动力。

为何会出现这种状况？除了企业的

对于一个组织而言，有了使命就如

体制不同之外，实际上还存在着深层次的

同有了一座精神与信仰灯塔，而有了这座

文化原因，也就是东方文化与西方文化的

灯塔，组织的成员方能找到一个精神与思

碰撞。当一种民族的文化传统和文化惯性

想的归属。“使命”的提出，其根本意义

流淌在血液里时，这种文化已经无法在一

就是需要实施。如何实现“使命”在组织

朝一夕能够改变，因而，文化的原因成了

成员心中扎根呢？我们可以学习毛泽东，

一道难以逾越的门槛。随着全球化的大发

对成员进行企业思想教育,使全体成员认

展，中国的许多企业开始接触国际企业，

清自己的根本利益，最大限度地焕发出积

并努力吸收着西方的先进理念与知识。与 度使命感和严格纪律的新型军人？这主要

不但提高了组织人员的觉悟，同时，更使

现，其实一代战略军事家毛泽东也是一个

归结于毛泽东能对下属行之有效的管理方

组织内部凝聚成了一个目标高度统一的

卓然出众的管理大师，无论是他的管理思

式与教育。毛泽东对于军队的管理之道，

整体。

想还是管理方式，都充分充满了东方文化

最独道之处具体来说有如下几个方面：强

的智慧、体现出了东方文化特性。

调使命、重视教育、多重保障，包括关于

善于建立愿景

翻开中国近代的历史，许多人不解：

作风建设的思想；关于民主管理的思想；

什么是愿景？愿景是一个关于渴望状

毛泽东领导小米加步枪的工农红军为什么

关于官兵关系的思想；关于军民关系的思

态的蓝图，是愿望的景象，是组织希望将

能打败有着先进美式装备的800万国民党

想；关于人才建设的思想等等。“使命”

来实现的理想目标。它与对组织存在使命

军队？抗战八年，受到内外夹击的毛泽东

是毛泽东军队管理之道的核心思想，它就

的认识、发展规划和达成目标手段的认识

军队为什么能够获取胜利？这其中有很多

如对同应于企业文化中的核心价值观。思

有关，它是个人愿景与集体愿景的有机结

原因，但最重要的原因之一，就是因为毛

想教育与组织建设则是毛泽东军队管理之

合。最通俗的理解，愿景就是盼头，就是

泽东出色而科学的领导与管理。因此，在

道的主体，就如同企业管理中的企业文化

未来的东西能够看得到。毛泽东就是发现

今天看来，毛泽东的东方式智慧在许多方

建设。

短期、中长期各个阶段的目标，激发把农

面，仍然非常值得我们借鉴与学习。

重视思想教育

62

极性、主动性和创造性。通过这些教育，

此同时，在这个过程中许多人也开始发

“为人民服务”一直以来是人民解

民组织起来进行斗争；大家都是佃户，没

放军的根本宗旨，也是毛泽东为组织所确

有土地，怎么办？打土豪分田地，只要斗

立的一个使命，而这个使命从某种意义上

争，就能获得自己的土地，这就是盼头。

毛泽东为什么能把散漫的、缺乏组

讲，是毛泽东对组织进行管理的重要组成

织纪律性的农民，成功地转变成了具有高

部分。如果在企业，那这个使命就是企业

China Economic Review | June 2015

毛主席是一个具有超凡领袖魅力的领 导者，很大一部分原因来自于他善于提

Viktor Göhlin Founder, Nokadi Alumnus 2006

Emilija Petrova Managing Director, Trade Resource GmbH Alumna 2002

Bart van Straten General Manager, Van Straten Medical Alumnus 1996

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Supareak Charlie Chomchan

Managing Director, Pacific Rim Rich Group Co., Ltd. Alumnus 2003

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商学院教育

炼愿景。提出别人看不到的远景，别人

硬的作风纪律。毛泽东将作风培养纳入军

战胜了正规军校培养出来的“正统军”，

还以为是“星星之火”，但他却能看到“

队管理的范围，将优良作风视为军队战斗

这充分证明了毛泽东人才建设思想的价值

可以燎原”。所以，对于企业而言,同样

力的重要因素，这在管理学理论方面可以

所在。

需要善为企业、为员工、为合作伙伴描绘

说是一大创新。直到今天，“作风优良”

出好的蓝图，吸引大家一致努力去工作。

仍然是中国军队建设的一个总要求之一。

因此，全员品牌管理的起点就是要让员工

企业同样是一个组织，作风的好坏

东之所以能够打日本人、打败国民党，他

认同企业的愿景。没有共同的愿景，缺乏

对于企业来说有着非常重要的意义。从某

身边的刘少奇、周恩来、朱德、邓小平等

共同的信念，就没有利益相关的前提，员

种意义上讲，作风就是执行力。执行力就

等那些德才兼备的领袖团队为他的胜利立

工也就不会对企业怀有更高的目标。据估

是把决策转为结果的能力，是企业竞争力

下了不可磨灭的功劳。

计，中国年度营业收入规模在2亿以上的企

的核心，是把企业战略、规划转化成为效

从企业和行业层面看，企业的命运前

业存在清晰战略愿景的不到20%，很多企

益、成果的关键。良好的作风就意味着强

途取决于其是否拥有一流的企业家、一流

业也提出了远大的目标，但是目标的制定

大的执行力。企业的发展，有战略决策问

的人才、一流的管理者、一流的团队。虽

缺乏员工的参与，目标的宣传贯彻远远不

题、技术创新问题、人才引进问题、领导

然企业的产品质量、价格、服务、创新能

够，对于愿景的不认同也就在所难免。

班子的引领问题等等，这些问题都需要通

力、投资强度、反应速度、企业规模、交

过执行达到最终目的，因此，无论是企业

货期限等都是竞争内容和竞争焦点，但这

的管理者还是企业的普通员工，他们在经

此竞争的背后则是严酷的人才资源竞争。

强调工作作风 没有过硬的作风，就打不了硬仗， 经不起考验；没有过硬的作风，就造就不

营过程中所表现出的作风，直接关系到企 业的进步和发展。

了过硬的队伍。 毛泽东充分认识到党风、 作风建设的重要性。1942年2月，他在中

美国钢铁大王卡内基有句名言：“如 果把我的厂房设备、材料全部烧毁，但只 要保住我的全班人马，几年以后，我仍将

重视人才建设

是一个钢铁大王。”从美国钢铁大王卡内

央党校开学典礼上作了《整顿党的作风》

管理靠人才，带兵打仗更要靠人才。

基话我们可以看出，建立竞争优势的根

的讲演，第一次提出“党风”这个概念。

毛泽东在缔造和领导人民军队的实践中，

本，其实就是培育和保护企业的人才竞争

在毛泽东看来，一个组织要实现强大的战

高度重视对人才的选拔和培养，很早就提

力。因此，我们必须彻底转变“见物不见

斗力，仅仅赋予组织一个崇高的使命还远

出了把军队办成一所大学校的思想。尤

人”的观念，切实做到以人为本，把发现

远不够。因为一个组织在管理过程中必然

其是在培养治军骨干方面，提出了许多独

人才、培养人才、吸引人才和稳定人才，

会遇到各种各样的问题，而这些问题有时

到的见解，创造出大量宝贵的经验。毛泽

让人才的创造性、积极性得到最大限度的

候往往会对组织的形象造成破坏。因此，

东的麾下战将如云，许多人从普普通通的

激发，作为企业人才工作的主线和创新文

在管理过程中，毛泽东提出了作风建设。

人，成长为叱咤风云的高级将领，并最终

化建设的核心理念。

“作风”是毛泽东管理思想所独有的一个 管理概念，现代管理科学中很难找到与之 完全对应的范畴。按词典解释，作风是指 表现出来的态度、行为。毛泽东所领导的 军队为什么能够赢得人民群众的拥戴， 最主要就是这个组织的每个人都拥有过

64

人是企业生存和发展的根本，任何一 个企业没有人才，其发展无从谈起。毛泽

China Economic Review | June 2015

B U S I N E S S E D U C AT I O N F O C U S

Extending product lines up and down in quality Asymmetric effects on brand evaluation

C

ompanies frequently extend product lines in a bid to target diverse market segments and increase sales, though this risks diluting brand image, especially when extending the brand to lower-quality products. But a series of studies shows that the positive effects of line extensions to higher quality are stronger than the negative effects of line extensions to lower quality. Also, the risk of image dilution can be mitigated through various branding strategies.

Be it creating new flavors of a given pasta sauce by adding every possible spice, vegetable or amount of cheese, or introducing a bargain-priced line of vehicles by a given carmaker, offering more products under the same umbrella brand is one of many ways for companies to boost growth.

What is known as “line extension” can be done horizontally—within the same quality or price level—or vertically—across price or quality levels.

For example, chemical and pharmaceutical ceutica giant Bayer, known in the US forr aspirin, is now beginning to a sell fer fertilizer and weed killer under rti its own n brand name. It’s a matter of exposure,of exposu ure making consumers more comfortable with the brand, as Timcomforrta othy H Heath explains. “If consumers He have the th he choice, they are more likely to go for fo a brand they know, an effect known n as a ‘neophobia’,” he adds. And as consumers travel, as the globe con nsu shrinks, shrinkss, brands want to be recognized around d the world—so they splash their names across wider ranges of na n products. produccts

Diluting Brand Image?

But in the case of downward line extensions, doesn’t associating a recognized brand name with lowerquality risk tainting the

Ph.D. Timothy Heath

brand’s image? That’s what Timothy Heath and his co-authors hypothesized, wondering why a successful multinational such as Procter & Gamble would risk diluting brand equity by marketing, say, inferior paper towels under the name of the market’s leading paper towel, Bounty. After all, humans tend to give more weight to negative experiences than to positive.

But when the researchers asked consumers to rate middlequality brands in common product categories (beer, pasta sauce, restaurants, etc.) now seen with lower or higher quality line extensions, they repeatedly found the opposite: Higherquality line extensions improved brand perception and evaluation far more than lower-quality extensions damaged brand them.Two psychological mechanisms contributed to this asymmetric effect: Opponent processes and what the authors dubbed “best-of-brand processing.”

Opponent Processes Offering a higher-quality line extension associates the brand with higher quality (a positive quality association effect) and also increases the number of products under the brand’s umbrella, which consumers generally like (a positive variety effect; e.g., more products signal brand energy, expertise, and innovativeness while offering options

B U S I N E S S E D U C AT I O N F O C U S

If lots of prestige is associated with a brand, diffusion of the brand name might hurt it to a wider range of consumers). Both effects then improve overall brand evaluation. However, offering a lower-quality line extension associates the brand with lower quality (negative qualityassociation effect)but still increases the number of products offered under the brand umbrella, a positive variety effect, which then tempers negative consumer responses.

Best-Of-Brand Processing Interestingly, the second contributing factor is that consumers tend to judge a brand more on the basis of its higherquality products than its lower-quality products (best-of-brand processing).

Lower-quality line exten-sions were deemed somewhat irrelevant by consumers when evaluating a brand. On the other hand, higher-quality extensions were considered quite important when judging brands because these extensions signal high brand skill level and expertise. “If BMW were to manufacture a 9-series of cars, it would show how much quality they can produce,” says Timothy Heath. At the other end of the range,the fact that they produce the 1-series does not drag them down

Practical Applications Managers otherwise skeptical of extending brands to lower quality should be encouraged to reconsider. But that doesn’t mean they should throw themselves headlong into line extensions without considering the potential negative effects.

In order to prevent image dilution, it may be more strategic to launch new products through multi-branding. For example, Toyota avoided Volkswagen’s Phaeton failure by marketing its luxury car through its separate Lexus brand and selling it through separate dealers, and it worked (although it was common knowledge that Toyota owned Lexus). Sub-branding, i.e. introducing a new brand said to be produced by the parent brand, is a middle ground between multi-branding and line extensions, and another way to avoid backlash against the core brand.

because everyone knows that they are capable of producing the 7-series.”

Stretching Brand Equity But companies can only extend product lines so far. Consider, for example, BMW’s 1-series, which, as Timothy Heath points out, BMW executives refer to as “smaller-quality” rather than“lower-quality.” But, he adds, what if BMW started to make a really junky car, whose doors didn’t close properly, and that fell apart rather quickly? Then the negative impact on brand equity would probably be significant. Indeed, if lots of prestige is associated with the brand, diffusion of the brand name might hurt it. “It may offend the sensi-bilities of those people who are religiously devoted to BMW and buy a new one very couple of years,” says the researcher. Of course, the quality gap between flagship and lower-end products is less of a jump for toilet paper than for German-manufactured prestige automobiles.Finally, while extending product lines may improve a brand’s general image—or at the very least, not harm it—the reverse may not be true, and a

higher-quality individual product may be “tainted” by the image of the flagship product or the overallbrand perception. For instance, when Volkswagen launched the Phaeton model in the US, it tanked. “Volkswagen in the US is associated with small, sporty cars, not high-end luxury cars,so even if the Phaeton per se was a very good car, consumers didn’t buy it,” says Timothy Heath. “Volkswagen stretched its brand too high, so to speak.”

Timothy Heath Timothy Heath teaches on the HEC Paris Executive MBA. He holds a Ph.D. in Business Administration from the University of Iowa and sits on the editorial review boards of the Journal of Marketing and the Journal of Consumer Psychology. For more information about our Executive MBA in China, visit: http://www.china.exed.hec.edu/

China Economic Review | June 2015

67

ECONOMY

China 2015 international property outlook Property management company investorist surveyed their Chinese members via telephone and the senior executives of 105 of China’s leading international property agencies responded.

This report is the summary of their sentiments towards the market in 2015

C

hinese people are buying property internationally in unprecedented numbers and despite media speculation that the economy of China is slowing there is no sign ahead of a slowdown in foreign property investment. China is mysterious to many, and the Investorist China 2015 International Property Outlook is the industry’s only report conveying the sentiment of the leaders of over 100 international property agencies and their outlook on Chinese international property transactions across 2015.

“Last year, our company through all our offices across China sold more than 1,800 Australian properties, mainNumber of households with more than $34,000 USD per annum in disposable income 32,130,000

7,680,000

2012

2022

Data from McKinsey Quarterly June 2013

68

China Economic Review | June 2015

ly apartments, I see no reason why we won’t sell more this year,” said Frank Weng, Ausin Shanghai office.

income, will grow from almost eight million urban households in 2012 to over 32 million households in 2022.

Demand

Where is the demand coming from?

All 105 agencies believe they will increase the number of properties they will sell in 2015. In total, the businesses surveyed are likely to sell in excess of 10,000 international properties in 2015. Participant businesses ranged in size from agencies who are likely to sell fewer than 50 properties per year to others who consistently sell over 1,000 properties annually. All agencies cite increased demand from the Chinese public. This is consistent with commentary on the growth of the Chinese population’s wealth.

Many pundits quote statistics around the Chinese middle class. But it is important to consider that these statistics are less relevant for property companies as the ‘middle class’ in China in fact have insufficient household income to purchase international property.

Research from leading global management consulting firm McKinsey refines the population more accurately and predicts China’s affluent population - a household with more than $34,000 USD in disposable annual

“Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are absolutely the top four cities where most agents will focus on.

Apart from that, we’re noticing a trend - more and more buyers from inner China cities are becoming interested in overseas properties,” said Calvin Shen, Director of PBG. Unsurprisingly, the most populous and wealthy cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen recorded highest responses. The question asked respondents to list the top 5 places they see demand coming from. It is important to note that answers to this question are heavily bias towards the location of the companies’ offices.

Where are buyers looking?

The agencies surveyed rank Australia as the clear number one location for Chinese investors. However it is important to note this is biased by the participants being members of Investorist. The USA is actually the number one destination for Chinese migration and investment.

The popularity of Canada will likely be overtaken by the UK due to the sus-

ECONOMY

Australia

United States

pension and then substantial restructuring of Canada’s Immigrant Investor Program and also because of the increased availability of UK stock globally fueled by Investorist opening in the UK. In late 2014, Canada suspended their Immigrant Investor Program which according to the South China Morning Post had a waiting list of 45,000 Chinese applicants at the time it was cancelled.

Canada has subsequently re-launched their program with a new price tag between US$800,000 and US$2 million and stricter criteria.

“The US is by all means the No. 1 hot spot for immigration and study because of its lower threshold investment requirement of $500,000 USD. The UK is also highly attractive for Chinese students. Other European countries with cheaper property prices and easier immigration requirements are also becoming more and more attractive to Chinese clients, such as Spain and Portugal,” said Hector Jiang, Manager of immi-visa.com.

What motivates Chinese to invest in overseas property?

To understand these motivations it is important to understand what is happening in China. Chinese people are on the whole nationalistic. But from an investment perspective, Chinese property is less favorable than many international markets.

“China’s domestic real estate market is going down, while the buying power

Canada

United Kingdom

of RMB is going up, definitely more and more people will want to relocate some of their wealth in a different market,” Song Han, Director of 5zfang.com said.

In China, there is an expression that one should have one foot in China and one out. Rationally there are several reasons Chinese are looking to invest abroad: Loan to Value Ratios: Chinese can borrow to purchase property, but the maximum loan to home value ratio is 70% for the first home buyers and 40% for second home buyers. In Australia investors even foreign can typically borrow 80% of the purchase price of a property. Yields for apartments in the major central cities of China are typically lower than those in major Australian, UK or US cities.

Market fluctuation in China spooks many investors who are watching international media, who regularly speculate about a cooling local economy and Chinese property bubble.

Despite Chinese property ownership rights being protected under Article 39 of The Property Law of the People’s Republic of China, property in China is effectively leasehold which is not viewed as favorably as freehold property.

Main motivators Investment

279

EDUCATION

205

MIGRATION LIFESTYLE

181 60

Greater Europe

What are the primary considerations for Chinese buyers?

Overwhelmingly, price and value for money are the key considerations when considering purchasing international property. These results are not surprising given the predominant reason for purchasing international property is investment.

“Most of my clients have shrewd business minds, all they care about is the investment return. So properties with good capital gain potential, higher rent returns are always the most important criteria,” said Joseph Zhou, Director of Central Estate.

9% Individual Property

Primary Consideration

29% Location

62% Price

How much are they looking to spend?

When looking at the UK market specifically, it showed that the lower end of the market fell in line with global trends.

However, the higher average prices of UK property are still not out of reach of many Chinese investors with more than 10% of respondents having clients with more than $1m USD to invest in UK

China Economic Review | June 2015

69

ECONOMY

Average budget spent on an international property in one transaction 1%

8%

Free-standing Houses 2 Part

40% Apartments

27%

$1M USD+

$700K−$1M USD

10%

Freestanding Houses 1 Part

Residential breakdown

23% Townhouses

35%

56%

$500K−$700K USD

$500K USD

Average budget, UK only £100K

18 Responses

£100K-£250k

50 Responses

£250K-£500k

19 Responses

£500K-£1 Million

18 Responses

Average budget, comparing UK to the rest of the world (USD) $500K

US/AU UK

59 Responses 68 Responses

$500K−1 Million

US/AU UK

45 Responses 19 Responses

lar property investment class amongst Chinese households. Of residential property, there is a reasonably even split between apartments and free-standing houses as the most popular investment type. Houses with two-part contracts, where the land is purchased in one contract and the build is contracted separately, are less favored by Chinese purchasers.

It is unknown exactly why two part contracts are considered less favorable as they often come with a price benefit. But Investorist speculates that this is due largely to education and prevalence in the market, with apartment and build out home developers being further advanced in their international marketing efforts.

$1 Million +

US/AU UK

1 Responses 18 Responses

property, a contrast to less than 1% with clients looking to invest similar amounts in the US or Australia.

What are the most popular types of property?

Residential is by far the most popu-

70

China Economic Review | June 2015

What size property should you build to suit Chinese buyers?

Unsurprisingly, investors are following the size range of product typically delivered by developers, with smaller one bed and studio properties favored by 30% of the market. It is important to consider that some of the responses will relate to free-standing houses, thus increasing the perception of demand in 100 square meters plus product.

What do Chinese agents look for in property before they recommend it to their clients?

The fact is that agents in China are looking for properties to recommend to their clients that they believe are in the best interests of their clients. It is just that simple. China is dense and highly urbanized so high rise inner city projects tend to be favored, however more than anything value for money needs to be demonstrated. To achieve results in China, developers and master agents need to understand the commercial reality that attracting clients in China is expensive and as such commissions paid must be competitive.

But research shows that this is not a key driver for the majority of Chinese agents.

“I would say my clients are experienced investors, so I will only recommend projects to them within a reasonable price range and good value for money,” said Adam Wu, General Manager of Bfang Overseas Investment.

When selling international property, who do Chinese agents want most to deal with?

Most international agents speak English very well. The priority is to have confidence that they are dealing with someone they can trust and most importantly deliver the right product for their clients. The key takeaway for master agents should be to ensure you deliver value in the relationship, not just access to stock.

“The most important thing in our business is trust. Because our clients are making one of their most valuable decisions for something far away beyond their physical visit and check, a faceto-face event is a must for us to answer

ECONOMY

questions, and build relations with our clients. Once a client is happy with his/ her investment purchased through us, they will likely become our best sales tool by referring more and more potential buyers to us,” said Jingqi Niu, Sales Manager of Premier International Investment Co. Ltd.

How to market to the Chinese?

In a country of nearly 1.4 billion people how do you find the eight million who can afford to buy a property overseas?

It’s hard and expensive work. Relationships drive the majority of business in China. Referrals are huge and face-to-

Popular ways to find purchasers Events

104 Responses

Referrals

87 Responses

Property Portals 85 Responses Socal Media Search Engines

83 Responses

China social media indicators: January 2014

42% Percentage of Chinese population using social media

51% Percentage of users visiting social media via mobile devices.

face business is a must. Like the rest of the world, the Internet dominates lead generation with social media exerting the same power as property portals.

Almost two-thirds of all effective marketing in China is relationship-based.

If foreign developers or master agents wish to enter China, the fact is they need the right local partner.

55 Responses

Print Media

25 Responses

Show Room 24 Responses

Relationship marketing versus traditional lead generation methods 36% Traditional Lead Generation

64% Relationship Based Marketing

The Chinese social media landscape All companies interviewed use Sina Weibo for company branding and marketing, with their sales teams using WeChat and QQ as daily communication and marketing tools.

1H & 30M Average time spent on social media per account per day.

looking for good value properties in inner city or education locations,” said Jon Ellis, the Founder of Investorist.

“It is only the top 3% of wealthy urban Chinese who can afford to purchase international property. These buyers are attracted by relationshipbased marketing and take time to select the right adviser to assist them with their journey. Chinese property professionals understand the power of their relationships and are primarily motivated by their clients’ interests. With well-priced, well-located, quality product the only ingredient for success in international property marketing is the right partner.”

Conclusion The year 2015 should be an extremely exciting year for developers and master agents who wish to sell properties to Chinese buyers.

“To maximize your chances for success in China, you should understand what the market wants. While golden marketing material and promises of exclusive features will attract attention, Chinese purchasers are highly educated and value oriented. Chinese buyers are

What is Investorist?

Investorist is the world’s leading business-to-business off-plan property platform with over 2,700 member businesses globally. The majority of Australian off-plan properties and a growing number of property developments in the UK are available for members to access on Investorist. com.

China Economic Review | June 2015

71

理财

2015中国市场海外置业展望 Investorist以电话问卷的形式调查了105家中国市场领先的海外置业、留学移民等机构，并将调查 结果以更清晰直观的方式一一解读。

尽

管各类数据显示中国经济正在放 缓，但是似乎丝毫没有影响国人

投资海外地产的热情。事实上，中国购买

之外，我们也注意到越来越多的内地城市

户均可支配收入超过$34,000美元 的家庭数显著增长

海外物业的数量呈逐年倍增的态势，并预

32,130,000

的买家开始对海外物业产生兴趣。”臣信 集团总裁Calvin Shen说。 当被问到中介心中海外物业销售排

测还将持续高速增长。中国一直以来让外

名前五的中国城市，显而易见，财富最集

围市场感到迷惑。为了拨开这层神秘面

中、人口最集中的北京、上海、广州和深

纱，Investorist行业领先报告的第一个系

圳当之无愧地当选绝大部分中介心目中

7,680,000

列报告着眼于2015年中国海外置业的行业

的“淘金窝”，也是海外物业销售竞争最

展望。该报告通过对话超过100家在中国

激烈的地方。不过，值得注意的是被调查

市场从事海外物业行销的代理机构，基于

中介的回答很大程度上取决于其办公地点

第一手信息更好地把握该行业的风向标，

所在。

并通过分析整理出2015年中国投资海外地

中国买家关注哪些海外市场？

产的清晰脉络。 2012

需求预期 105家机构一致认为2015年中国市场

摘自麦肯锡季报，2013年6月

2022

由于受访的中介大部分都是Investorist的会员，澳洲置业通常是他们的主营 业务之一，因此在我们的调查结果中澳大

投资海外物业的数量会超越前一年。被调 查机构对自身房产的年销售指标的总和预 计将超过10,000套。参与调查的机构规模 大小不一，其年销售预期也从50套到1000 套不等。所有的机构都预测中国公众投资 海外房产的意愿会显著增强。该预期与中 国大众财富不断增长的实际相吻合。 不少专业机构一直引用中国中产阶 级的一些收入数据，但事实上该收入数据 相对于海外物业投资所需的标准线仍有差 距，因而用来预测中国人海外投资的相关 性并不可取。国际领先的咨询公司麦肯锡 的研究似乎更有说服力。该研究更细致地 划分中国的富裕人群，将其定义为户均可 支配年收入高于3万4千美元的家庭作为分 水岭。并预测这一群体将从2012年的800 万户猛增至2022年的3200万户。

需求来自何处？ “上海、北京、广州和深圳绝对是中 介最集中、销售最火爆的四个城市。除此

72

China Economic Review | June 2015

北京 (103) 上海 (103) 广州 (102) 深圳 (102) 西安 (36) 南京 (8) 杭州 (6) 沈阳 (2) 哈尔滨 (1) 郑州 (1) 苏州 (1)

成都 (32) 武汉 (1)

重庆 (19) 天津 (1)

理财

澳大利亚

美国

加拿大

利亚力压美国排名第一。然而值得注意的

角度来看，疲软的国内地产已不及国际地

是，美国仍然是中国富裕阶层首选的投资

产的风光。

和移民目的地。曾经异常火爆的加拿大移

“中国国内地产市场正在滑坡，人

民，受近两年加拿大政府暂停、重启及一

民币海外购买力在提升，自然有越来越多

系列移民政策的波动，大大地打击了中国

的人会考虑在不同的市场配置自己的资

移民及投资客的关注热情，并且大有被英

产。”胜义行总监Song Han告诉我们。

国等欧洲诸国取而代之的趋势。

英国

欧洲其他地区

9% 物业本身

主要考量

对于出国移民这件事，中国人有句形

据《南华早报》报道，2014年加拿

象的表达说出了他们的真实想法：一只脚

大政府暂停受理移民一事导致大约45000

在国内，一只脚在国外。究其根本，中国

名等候审理的中国申请人被取消资格。尽

人投资海外不外乎出于以下几大原因：

管稍后，加拿大政府重启移民大门，但从

信贷比率：在中国，购买首套物业的

80万至200万加币的严苛投资门槛使得不

贷款比例70%，而第二套房仅40%，大大

少申请人转投其他移民政策更为宽松的国

抑制了投资。而在澳大利亚，即使是外国

度。与此同时，鉴于英国地产过去几年的

买家也能问澳洲本地银行贷到80%的购房

优异保值增值表现，使之成为不少高度富

款。

裕人群的投资“香馍馍”。

29%

62%

地点

价格

中国投资客海外买房的预算 从中国投资者对购买英国物业的平均

受限于居民收入，中国一些主要大城

预算来看，基本与购买全球其他市场物业

“美国肯定是当仁不让的NO.1，其

市的租金收入远远低于澳大利亚、英国或

的预算没有显著差异，基本都集中在中低

50万美金的门槛限制低，是移民和留学

美国同级别城市的收益。中国市场的波动

端价格的物业区间。但是这并不表示中国

的首选。英国高等教育对中国学生家庭也

性，特别是当前的经济趋冷和地产泡沫破

投资客没有能力购买英国的高端物业。事

很有吸引力，但受相对较窄的移民选择限

灭的预期，一直令投资者观望，另觅投资

实上，看重英国市场的中国买家中，有超

制，其他一些门槛宽松、房价低的欧洲

途径，例如海外地产投资。

过10%愿意花费超过100万美元购买英国

二三线国家，例如西班牙、葡萄牙等，

尽管中国产权法保障购房者对所购房

物业，远高于愿意花费同样预算购置美国

反而更受欢迎。”天玛仕国际经理Hec-

屋的使用权，但是70年的使用权大限和所

或者澳大利亚房产的1%比例。当然，考

tor Jiang说道。

有权不明让很多投资者犹豫不决。

虑到中国买家购买美国或者澳洲的基数更 大，反映在最终的成交额和交易量上，

中国投资者投资海外物业的主要 动机？

中国投资者投资海外物业的重点 考量

要了解中国投资者投资海外的动因，

大部分受访中介在总结自己接触到的

就需要解读一下中国的大背景。中国人整

客户的主要关注点时，都不约而同地提到

体是比较爱国恋家的，但是从投资的理性

了价格。这个结论和问卷中的另一个“性

1%

8% 70-100万美元

100万美元+

价比”问题得出的结论相互呼应。（参见 后文）考虑到大部分中国客购买海外物业

主要投资动因 投资

279

教育

205

移民 生活方式

181 60

投资者投资 海外物业的 平均预算

的主要目的是投资，上述关于价格关注的 结论就不难理解了。 “我们的大部分客人都是很精明的 投资客，他们最关心的就是投资回报。那 些增值潜力巨大、高租金回报的房产项目 总是更受欢迎。”中城地产总监Joseph

35%

56%

50-70万美元

50万美元

Zhou说。

China Economic Review | June 2015

73

理财

购置英国物业的平均预算 18个答复

10万英镑

50个答复

10-25万英镑 25-50万英镑

19个答复

50-100万英镑

18个答复

购置英国物业和全球其他地区 物业的平均预算比较 （按美元计算）

6%

10% 独立别墅

27%

6%

40%

物业类型

公寓

买地 自建房

配套设施

27% 价格范围

8% 开发商 品牌

住宅细分

主要投资动因 14% 佣金

23%

16%

23%

联体别墅

距离市中心距离

性价比

$50万 59个答复

美国/澳洲 英国

68个答复

$50-100万 45个答复

美国/澳洲 英国

19个答复

$100万

美国/澳洲 英国

1个答复

18个答复

前者与后者之间的差距并没有10倍那么 大。投资者投资海外物业的平均预算。

占近半壁江山。但是独立屋这个概念，在

所以我向他们推荐的项目必须价格合理，

海外，如澳洲房产市场，还需进一步细分

性比价高。”结友海外置业总经理Adam

为已建成的独立别墅（通常二手屋），和

Wu说。

买地自建房套餐。前者显然更受中国投资

在中国开展业务的海外置业代理几乎

客的青睐，尽管澳洲投资法规定，即海外

一致认为，有市场，满足客户需求的就是

投资者只能购买新房。

好项目，才值得大力推荐。就这么简单。

各种具体原因和个人喜好一言难尽。

生活在中国大城市的人们习惯了高密

但是据Investorist观察，可能是因为海外

度、高楼林立的现代化都市感觉，因此放

投资者对公寓市场更为熟悉，也可能是因

眼海外物业时，也总是倾向地理位置靠近

为该类型物业的开发商投入海外市场的宣

市中心的高层项目。当然，性价比永远是

传力度更大。

最大的考量。 对海外开发商和项目总代理而言，

中国投资者投资海外物业的重点 考量

最受欢迎的建筑面积

要想项目在中国这个大市场热销，就要准

出于投资目的，毫无疑问大部分的

备好应对在中国市场争夺客户的高昂推广

住宅投资是中国买家最追捧的投资

受访中介表示1居室单元房占据销量中的

成本，还有具有诱惑力的佣金。有意思的

类型。细分住宅投资市场，几乎是二分天

30%以上。此外，也有一部分自住群体客

是，佣金似乎并不是中国中介的最大动

下。喜欢公寓和喜欢独立别墅的投资客各

户以独立别墅为主，因此超过100平米以

力。

上的物业很有一定的市场份额。

中国中介最希望为谁代理销售？

5%

6%

学生公寓

度假地产

最受欢迎的物业面积 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 <50 sqm 50-100 sqm 100-200 sqm >200 sqm

8% 商业 地产

住宅分类

大部分的海外置业中介都能讲英文。 因此和海外的开发商也好，总代理也好， 语言交流不是最大的障碍。比较两者之 间，选择为谁代理项目时，似乎彼此之间 的信任和信心才是最重要的。对总代理而 言，经营与下级代理之间的良好合作关系 显然比单纯地提供盘源更有价值。 “我们这行最重要的就是信任。客户 的投资决定金额巨大，且地处海外，看不

8% 酒店及酒店公寓

73% 住宅

中国海外置业中介一般向客户推 荐哪类产品？ “我的客户都是经验丰富的投资者，

74

China Economic Review | June 2015

见，摸不着。因此，我们与客户面对面的 基础，解答他们的疑问，取得他们的信任 是必须的。当然，一旦客户对我们满意，

理财

16%

中国社交媒体指数：2014年1月

讲普通户的 上级代理

投资者投资 海外物业的 中国中介最 平均预算 希望为哪一 方代理 19% 总代理

65%

42% 社交媒体用户数量占中 国总人口的万分比

开发商

他们就会是最好的‘口碑销售’，为我们

51%

1H & 30M

通过手机使用社交 媒体应用的移动

社交媒体用户每天在社交媒 体上所花费的平均时间

2014年中国社交媒体使用一览

引荐更多的朋友买家。”中投财智国际顾 问有限公司销售Jingqi Niu告诉我们。

即时通讯

89.3%

各类社交媒体网站

中国市场的营销

61.7%

2015年是海外物业激动人心的 一年 Investorist创始人Jon Ellis认为， 2015年将是进入中国市场、推动更多海外 物业销售激动人心的一年。如果开发商和

如何在一个拥有14亿人口的庞大市 场里搜索到那800万有能力购买海外物业

微博

43.6%

代理商们想在中国市场获得最大的成功， 就需要时刻把握市场的需求。精心打造的

注：用户同时使用多种通讯工具

营销资料、独具特色的卖点来吸引眼球。

的目标客户？代价是艰巨而昂贵的。在中

同时告诫：请记住中国买家普遍受教

国，似乎关系推动着各类生意的进行。推 荐客户是拓展生意的一个主要渠道，而与

说，找个正确合适的当地合作伙伴是上

育程度很高且极其关注价值投资。他们对

客户面对面洽谈是经营海外物业销售的必

策。

黄金地段或学区房的价值通常情有独钟。 也请记住仅3%的中国富裕阶层能够真正负

经环节。当然，中国也是个互联网大国， 因而公司网站和社交媒体在连接客户过程 中也扮演着举足轻重的角色。

中国中介最希望为谁代理销售？ 105家受访公司无一例外都开设了自

担海外物业投资，他们都有各自的社会关 系网络，会甄选适合自己的代理顾问去完 成这项投资。

在中国，有效的市场营销似乎离不

己公司的微博账户，用于公司品牌和市场

开关系和网络，我们的调查结果显示近三

推广。所有受访公司的销售团队100%使

中国的海外置业代理们深刻理解“关

分之二的营销成果都来自这二者。对于希

用微信和QQ与客户保持实时语音通讯和

系网”的重要性，牢牢把其客户的需求放

望进入中国市场的国际开发商和总代理来

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China Economic Review | June 2015

75

ECONOMY

Kink goes viral China’s domestic sex toy industry finds new vigor online

W

hile it obviously happens quite a lot in China, sex is still something of a taboo topic—at least as far as the government is concerned. A ban on pornography is in place, enforced albeit spottily, and as if to fill this niche state media regularly feature salacious photo galleries of women in barely-there bikinis. Late last year, and without a hint of irony, state censors cropped the cleavage from a popular new drama about the powerful Tang dynasty-era empress Wu Zetian.

But putting prudishness aside, China has seized the reins of manufacturing for the global sex toy industry. Reports regularly claim the country manufactures 70% of the world’s sex toys,

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China Economic Review | June 2015

though it is unclear whence this figure first arose. Steve Thompson, global marketing manager for Swedish toy firm Lelo previously told China Economic Review he thought the figure might be as high as 95%.

Romeo Jiang, general manager at massage-products-turned-sex-toymanufacturer Bestgreen Electronics, said his firm employed about 100 people and produced around 500-800 varieties of toys, with total production of about 10,000 devices per annum—all for export. He pegged the industry at large as exporting around 80-90% of its goods. Here, as in other electronics sectors, high-end products are sent abroad while crummy, often uncertified toys

stay in China, dealing domestic consumers a bum deal.

“Chinese people are still a bit conservative about accepting these kinds of products, and there’s a lack of broad penetration,” Jiang said. However, he added that those born after 1980 were known to dabble, if not wholly embrace the role of toys in the bedroom.

Even with such reticence the domestic industry was growing at a decent clip when last checked. Figures from a 2008 survey cited by mainland newspaper Southern Weekend estimated annual sales at RMB100 million (roughly US$16 million), forecast to grow to nearly RMB300 million by the end of 2014. A more recent survey from

ECONOMY

2011 showed most buyers of sex toys in China were men, but most users were women, and average per capita spending that year was RMB1,823 up 30% from the year before.

Industry figures are far more optimistic. In 2012 the chairman of Rainstorm Entertainment, Zhu Weilian, claimed in a Sina Weibo microblog post that adult toy sales in China had already exceeded RMB5 billion, and said he expected them to reach RMB50 billion (about US$8 billion) by 2015. Zhu also expressed disappointment at the industry’s lack of home-grown champions, and encouraged Chinese entrepreneurs to step up to the plate for their country’s sake.

That kind of exhortation, together with optimistic growth forecasts, may have worked too well, according to Jiang. He said that recent years had seen companies pile into the sector expecting quick profits of more than 100%, only to exit just as quickly when revenue was slow to come. “After they came in the dream was shattered—they wanted out, so they cut prices ... It about killed us.”

Where Chinese producers are apt to jump in blindly, conservative views on sex and discussion thereof can make visiting a sex shop to buy a toy or two a fraught process. But even in top-tier cities sex shops are often grimy holes in the wall whose dimly-lit counters likely do little to enhance their products’ appeal. In fact, more than one in four Chinese consumers who had bought a toy from a physical shop wait until it is dark out to do so, according to survey figures from Daxue Consulting.

Online shopping has lowered barriers to entry for many in China, though: The same poll, from 2013, showed that nearly half of the 17,000 people sur-

veyed preferred purchasing their adult products online. Chris Wu, proprietor of online boutique toy shop TOIs, is starting online and working toward her own brick-and-mortar shop, though she already offers offline parties and bridal showers.

Wu said it wasn’t just easier to set up shop online—it also avoided the embarrassment many feel when visiting small “health shops” that dot the streets of many major cities in China.

“There’s just more privacy,” Wu said, adding that her own shop would have a good deal more style than the mainland norm. She is already aiming up-market with a storefront that caters to higher-end clientele by offering products from designer European brands, including Sweden’s Lelo (all made, of course, in China).

For all its unease over media por-

trayals of sex and sexiness, the state recognizes a valuable industry when it sees one. The annual sex toy expos held in many mainland cities are proof enough of this. The CCP seems relatively accepting as well: Before hanging up, Jiang apologized for not having more time; he had to attend a party meeting.

Jiang said he expected growth in the domestic market as wealthier, younger and more open-minded consumers opened up their pocketbooks—though he suspected the process might take generations. Wu agreed the sector was set to grow, and suggested better education could help sex toys jettison a stigma of being solely for the lonesome.

“Most people think [toys are] only for single person use,” Wu said. Not so, she explained. “That’s why we do lots of workshops.”

China Economic Review | June 2015

77

ECONOMY

Spotting sprouts House view: Three trends plowing ahead in Chinese agriculture

C

hinese agriculture has been shaped over the last 30 years by intense modernization and industrialization, as well as a stubborn commitment to self-sufficiency. While many policies have held steady through the start of this year, 2015 looks set to get more interesting as we head into the second quarter.

One area to watch is the slow-burning growth of the organic market in China, which is now the fourth largest organic market in the world after the US, Germany and France. The Chinese government itself has forecast contin-

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China Economic Review | June 2015

ued annual growth in organic markets, and new organic shops such as Lohao are popping up to meet demand. This could be a significant opportunity for investment, but current domestic organic production still has hurdles to overcome.

One major issue is that the standards for organic certification are lower on the mainland than those adopted internationally, and regulation of products falsely claiming to be organic is limited. Whilst prospects for imports of organic produce are bright, in order to pass through customs all greens

must arrive at the border with Chinese organic certificationâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;an expensive, extensive process. Local organic may also be limited by the decreasing availability of farmland in China, which underpins the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growing reliance on intense, industrial agriculture.

Nonetheless, breaking into the organic market now could see big gains if the proper model can be deployed.

A second, broader development is the governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s acceptance of genetically modified produce, this despite cries to the contrary from the public in recent years. In early January 2015

ECONOMY

GM cotton and papaya was approved for commercial production in China, and the importation of GM soybeans, rapeseed, cotton and corn have all been given the go-ahead, though as US corn farmers will note, some took longer than others. Government officials further proclaimed that China is now a world leader in GM research of some crops, notably rice and corn, and asserted wholehearted support of scientific inquiry into GM products.

Beijings sharp U-turn to embrace GM foods is partly a result of the country’s water and agricultural land scarcity, as modified crops offer much greater yields for the same area. Another likely if less publicized factor is the current Chinese dependence on international conglomerates for seeds. Monsanto, DuPont Co. and Syngenta AG all operate large, competitive seed banks that China’s domestic companies cannot match. After the rejection of a Chinese company’s unsolicited bid for Origin Agritech Ltd – which controls the rights to China’s genetically modified corn – the government is clearly pushing for competitive native expertise and production. However, after many years of denying GM foods, there will be an uphill battle with a skeptical, perhaps paranoid public.

Last and by no means least, China has begun aggressively pumping up potato production. The Ministry of Agriculture announced in January that 50% of potatoes grown in China would be consumed as a staple food by 2020, no small feat considering the country is already one of the world’s largest producers of said root. The humble tuber offers an alternative crop to cultivate on land that has been degraded by intensive cereal farming or pollution, and

requires significantly less water compared with rice and wheat. This makes it ideal for China’s notoriously dry northern and western provinces, which are subject to rapid desertification as a result of environmental degradation.

Farmers aren’t the only ones who would have to get on board Beijing’s potato train: although the potato has been a part of the Chinese diet since it was introduced in the 17th century, it is not accorded the same level of reverence as rice and wheat. But earlier this year, the government announced pilot programs for rationing agricultural water usage, with a quota of water allowed per fixed area of crop, as well as fines for overuse and rewards for those who spare the hosepipe. This implicit indictment of the state of China’s water supply situation might

convince producers and consumers to look potato-ward.

All of these trends have been spurred by continued economic growth at the expense of the environment. Yet China also looks unlikely to relinquish its grip on food self-sufficiency, as trends in genetic modification research and the shift to potato production further illustrate Beijing’s commitment to this cause. It will be interesting to see how growth in the organic market will be affected by China’s limited agricultural space, as the latter would seem to imply that imports of organic produce will increase. But the above developments also face a shared further hurdle: The success of organics, GM produce and potatoes will require significant shifts in Chinese public opinion.

China Economic Review | June 2015

79

战略合作

爱康集团和WA臻景医疗达成战略合作， 为客户提供高端整合医疗服务

2

015年4月10日，中国领先的健康管理集团、国内体检行业的第一家上市公司爱康集 团（纳斯达克股票代码：KANG）宣布与WA臻景医疗抗衰老中心正式达成战略合

作，WA上海、北京两家国际医疗中心加入爱康集团医疗网络，并携手来自法国的著名 抗衰老预防医学专家萧夏博士（Dr. Claude Chauchard），共同为国人提供从深度体检 到个性化抗衰老服务的整合医疗服务。 爱康集团董事长兼首席执行官张黎刚先生、首席财务官陈阳先生、WA臻景医疗联 合创始人李戍博士和Derek

Muhs先生、抗衰老预防医学专家萧夏博士以及国内外近百

家主流媒体出席了发布会，共同见证这一精彩时刻。 WA臻景医疗源于1990年，是世界领先的新医学抗衰老国际医疗中心，目前在北 京和上海运营着两家国际医疗中心。自成立开始，WA臻景医疗一直致力于将世界抗衰 老医学、功能医学和再生医学领域中的一流医疗专家和研究人员引进到中国大陆。2012 年，中国产学研合作促进会将WA臻景医疗命名为“中国抗衰老功能再生医学临床研究 基地”。 爱康集团董事长兼首席执行官张黎刚先生就本次战略合作表示，“爱康的使命是运 用先进的预防医学来提升生命质量。除了提供体检服务外，我们在不断地寻求能让人们 生活地更健康、更长寿的解决方案。因此，在一年前爱康推出了高端品牌爱康君安，开 始为追求高品质医疗服务的家庭和企业员工提供深度体检服务，这次，通过与WA抗衰 老中心和萧夏博士的联手合作，爱康已整合了更多的优质医疗资源，为中国的高净值家

Derek Muhs先生

庭和企业客户提供一站式的高端医疗服务。” 作为爱康集团旗下的顶级服务品牌，爱康君安专注于向追求高品质生活的家庭和企 业员工提供深度体检、防癌筛查和心脑血管疾病检测服务，同时提供牙科、涉外门诊、 国际会诊、私人医生等医疗服务。整合全球顶级的医疗资源，配置国际主流品牌的领先 医疗设备，构建全球医疗绿色通道，从而打造“尊贵、高效、私属”的客户体验。爱康 将与WA臻景医疗以及萧夏博士携手，致力于精心呵护每一位客户，更健康，更长寿、更 美丽。 麦肯锡的一份近期报道中指出：“中国的医疗产业正以惊人的速度发展，医疗消 费预计从2011年的3570亿美金到2020年的10000亿美金。”这将是一个可期的快速 发展的行业。对于WA抗衰老中心与爱康集团的合作，WA的联合创始人Derek

Muhs

先生表示“中国的医疗行业是目前世界上最令人兴奋的市场。我们想找到最好的医疗机 构合作，这就是我们选择爱康集团的原因。不仅仅是因为爱康是中国私人预防性医疗服 务的行业领导者，更是因为爱康致力于为他们的客户提供最高标准的医疗服务和医疗技 术。” WA臻景医疗联合创始人李戍博士表示，“在过去的几年中，WA致力于把抗衰老医 学和预防医学领域最新的技术和应用带到中国。中国的环境问题和生活方式的转变导致 了对于高品质健康管理解决方案的巨大市场需求，我们非常高兴能和爱康一起来提供这 样的解决方案。对于此次合作我们感到非常兴奋，并非常期待能将健康服务的最高标准 拓展到全国。”

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China Economic Review | June 2015

张黎刚先生

ECONOMY

Bullet-proof bubble China’s retail investors are carving out their own set of market rules

T

he zeitgeist of China’s whitecollar office-workers rests nowhere so much as the lunch table. Delivery arrives, a shout ricochets above a grid of employees’ heads, all hunched over computer monitors, and a quorum is quickly assembled to dig in and swap stories on the topic of the day. Yet that topic has changed less and less of late: In Shanghai and indeed many mainland cities, office lunch tables are dominated by talk of nothing but stocks, stocks, stocks. The question, of course, is whether all the chatter will come to the same tragic end as seen in 2008.

It is true that by even the most generous measure a bubble has formed in China’s equity markets—but for now, this seems bullet-proof. So far as Shanghai and Shenzhen are concerned, market fundamentals couldn’t be less important thanks in large part to the investment approach adopted by the droves of individual investors driving the current rally. These so-called retail traders aren’t concerned with traditional investment metrics like price-toearnings ratios. Instead they’re keeping an eye on policy announcements and banking on further easing measures like reserve requirement cuts and stimulus rollouts. The worse the economy gets, the more government support expands, and these investors will respond by plowing still more money into stocks that soar upward further still.

“The problem at the moment is that

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China Economic Review | June 2015

it’s very difficult to interpret what’s happening in the markets because they’re being driven not by fundamentals, but by investor sentiment,” says Julian Evans-Pritchard, a China economist at markets research firm Capital Economics. “There’s always some sentiment, but other markets are more grounded, whereas China has become less attached to economic fundamentals—especially in the last six months.”

Same name, different setting There may not be an agreed-upon definition for what constitutes an economic bubble, but general consensus has settled on a list of phenomena that any observer of Chinese equities over the past year would find all-too familiar: Large surges in IPOs and newly opened trading accounts; irrational upswings in stock optimism based on only minor growth; speculative stocks greatly outpacing valuation of dividend-paying stocks; and a general drop in financial expertise among those engaging in trading.

Yet investment in the so-called A-shares traded at the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is not directed by the same underlying economic rulebook that serves as the basis for other markets’ operations.

“China is more and more driven by views on what policy makers are thinking in terms of supporting the market or not,” says Evans-Pritchard.

“You can see this in terms of how often [prices] swing on editorials published

in state media, because those editorials often swing [between caution and encouragement] as well, and markets react accordingly.”

The many differences being seen now can be traced back to impetus behind these bourses’ establishment in the early 90s, when China’s leaders were looking for a way to recapitalize state-owned firms. They first consolidated many smaller companies into a few major ones worthy of listing in Hong Kong and New York, after which these new corporate giants returned home for a victory lap listing on the mainland. But they remained, by requirement, state-owned, with only a portion of shares put up for grabs. In China stocks can freely change hands, but ownership of a listed firm cannot.

In lieu of possible ownership rights stockholders would, in more traditional markets, still have one reason to hold on to stocks that aren’t rising: Dividends. Those payouts typically give investors a reason to hold on to stocks through short-term price changes in pursuit of more dependable payouts skimmed from company profits. But in China cash disbursement is the exception to the rule.

According to a 2013 survey by Palisades Hudson Financial Group, 60% of companies listed in mainland China didn’t pay cash dividends at all. That may be in part because disbursements from Shenzhen and Shanghai-listed stocks are subject to taxes, whereas

ECONOMY

capital gains made from rising stock prices are not.

To combat this obvious crossing of purposes the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the “Guidelines on Distribution of Cash Dividends” in early 2013 ostensibly mandating all companies to make a 30% payout of profit, but a loophole allowing firms to explain away their failure to do so by giving “alternative uses” of their profits suggests this move was mostly symbolic.

Heng Chen, a professor of economics at Hong Kong University, said they probably wouldn’t help anyways.

“Volatility means all the attention is on short-term gains,” Heng said. The current rally is driven by investors seeking ever-escalating share prices that put what pitiable dividends that are offered on the mainland to shame.

So long as prices rise at a sufficiently speedy clip there will be little incentive for listed firms to start such payouts.

Not that they necessarily could if the need arise—many listed firms, particularly state-owned ones, are busy coping with China’s downshifting economy, their profits in the first quarter ranging from slim to nil.

The other half The other major difference between mainland markets and the rest of the world is investor makeup: Where giant investment firms dominate the board in London and New York, individual investors make up the majority of traders in Shenzhen and Shanghai and account for far and away more of the daily trading volume than local brokers. That has become even more the case since July, when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was first announced.

“Previously people perceived that Chinese households had huge savings for every kind of purpose, but recently research has shown this sort of rebalancing from savings to the stock market,” said Heng who has done extensive research into Chinese household savings rates. “Some households have even pulled money out of insurance to put into the market.”

That has been compounded by an increase in borrowing money to double-down on investments by individual investors, a practice known as margin lending. Given the potential knock-on effects likely to reverberate throughout the economy should the market tank, regulators have been cracking down on the practice in waves, with a January move to punish overenthusiastic brokers producing the largest dent to date in the Shanghai Composite Index’s mountainous ascent, though only for about a day. The effects of the crackdowns have likewise proved fleeting, with figures from both mainland bourses showing no significant deleveraging had taken place as of the end of April.

This proclivity for such potentially risky investment tactics may come from a lack of financial understanding.

Recent reports have noted with alarm a survey showing that two thirds of the new trading accounts opened within the last year—which in total make up more than half of all active A-share accounts in the mainland — had been started by people who had not graduated high school. But Heng said that focus was too narrow.

“Many retail investors do not even have a middle school education,” he pointed out, shortly before caution-

ing against the assumption that higher education led to better investment practices. Education, Heng said, “is not a determinant for success, but correlates to things like patience,” which can be useful to traders. That said, he didn’t expect the environment to change any time soon to favor such fundamentals-focused investors.

That means that a deteriorating economy is of great benefit to mainland stocks, since government support — particularly cuts to banks’ reserve requirement ratio — have thus far proven a sure-fire ticket to boosting the investor sentiment driving prices upward. This seems to have produced a vicious virtuous cycle in which the worse the real economy becomes the better Chinese stocks perform, flying ever-higher beyond the levels at which a traditional market would price them.

“The government actually desperately needs a boom in the stock market,” Heng said. The ongoing rally had helped recapitalize many flagging SOEs, which in turn has provided a boost for the government as it attempts to deal with serious shifts in the composition of China’s economic drivers and shortfalls in growth expected to see further exacerbation through the year’s end.

Capital Economics’ Evans-Pritchard said that even if a selloff began it wouldn’t be a sure-fire bust, since policymakers could step in to prevent a sharper downturn. At the moment, he said, they didn’t seem willing. “It’s a question of when, and we don’t think it will happen soon given the current conditions,” he said, “but it has to happen at some point.”

China Economic Review | June 2015

83

话题

“防弹”泡沫 中国散户正在开拓一套他们自己的市场规则

中

国白领职员的时代精神只有在午餐

切关注政策公告并寄希望于类似降低存款

都能发现它们实在是太相似了：首次公开

饭桌上才得以体现。职员原本都

准备金率和推出刺激计划的进一步宽松措

募股和新开交易账户的激增；仅因小幅增

猫着腰缩在办公隔间电脑显示器后面，但

施。经济情况越糟糕，政府扶持力度就越

长而不合理上涨的乐观情绪；投机型股票

只要午餐一送到，有人一喊，他们就能很

大，这些散户就会将更多的钱投入股票作

股价大大超过分红股票股价；经商人士中

快组成一定人数开始挖掘和交换一天的话

为回应，而股票就会继续高涨。

金融专业知识水平普遍下降。

题故事。但是最近的话题几乎没有变过：

市场调研公司资本经纪的中国经济

然而，其他市场运行中采用的基础经

在上海甚至许多大陆城市，主导办公室午

学家朱利安·埃文斯普里查德说：“由于

济规则手册，并没有指导上海和深圳证券

餐饭桌的只有一个话题—股票，除了股

市场的驱动不是基本原理而是投资者情

交易所中所谓A股的交易投资。

票，还是股票。当然，问题在于，是否所

绪，因此目前的问题就是，很难解释市场

埃文斯普里查德说：“政策制定者对

有的闲谈都会以和2008年那样相同的悲剧

中正在发生着什么。投资者情绪是一直存

于是否扶持市场的观点越来越成为中国市

收场。

在的，但其他市场更有理论依据，而中国

场的驱动因素。

市场的运行已经变得不太依附于经济原

表的社论出现摆动，你能根据摆动的频率

理—尤其是在过去的六个月中。”

理解这一点，因为那些社论通常也在[谨慎

以最慷慨的标准去衡量，可以说泡 沫经济在中国的股权市场形成已是事实， 但就目前来说，这似乎是防弹的。就上海 和深圳而言，很大程度上多亏一群推动当

84

[股价]会因官方媒体上发

和鼓励间]摆动，市场会有相应地反应。”

相同名称，不同设定

现在能看到的许多不同点能够追溯到

前回升散户所采取的投资方法，市场基本

对于泡沫经济的构成可能还没有一个

九十年代早期这些交易所成立时的动因上

原理才尤为重要。这些所谓的散户并不关

商定的定义，但是对于共识中选定的一系

来，当时的中国领导人正在找寻调整国有

心像市盈率这样的传统投资指标，而是密

列现象，去年来任何一个中国股市观察者

企业资本结构的方法。他们先将许多较小

China Economic Review | June 2015

话题

的公司合并成几个能够在香港和纽约上市 的大公司，之后这些新的大公司再回到家 乡，成功在大陆上市。但是根据要求，这 些公司仍保持国有，自己只持有一部分股 权。中国的股票能自由转手，但上市公司 的所有权则不能。 在更传统的市场中，使股东仍紧握手 中不上涨的股票而不投向可能股权的一个 原因是—股息。通常，那些股利支付率 给投资者一个理由紧握手中的股票，他们 通过短期股价变化追求从公司利润中略去 的更可靠的股利支付率。但这一规则在中 国的现金支出中则是个例外。 根据帕利塞兹哈德森金融集团2013 年的一份调查显示，60%在中国大陆上市 的公司根本不支付现金股利。在某种程度 上这可能是因为深圳和上海上市的股票受 制于税收，而从股价上涨得来的资本收益 则不受此限制。

圳和上海的证券交易中散户是主体，而且

资方式就越好。对此，陈恒指出，许多散

为了打击这一明显的不合理现象，上

他们的交易量显然比当地经纪人多得多。

户是没有高中教育水平，但是教育并不是

海证券交易所在2013年初发布了《现金股

而从七月份沪港通宣布以来，这一现象更

成功的决定因素，而是和耐心等有关联，

利分配的指导方针》，该方针表面上要求

为普遍。

教育对交易员来说比较有用。也就是说， 陈恒并不指望大环境会因那些注重理论的

所有公司都应支付利润的30%作为现金股

在对中国家庭储蓄率进行过广泛研究

利，但又有一个漏洞，它允许公司用利润

之后，陈恒说：“以前人们认为中国家庭

的“其他用途”作为解释无法支付现金股

出于各种原因拥有巨额储蓄，但近期研究

这就意味着一个正在退化的经济对

利的原因，这意味着此举基本只有象征性

表明这种投资再平衡从储蓄转为股市，有

内地证券市场大有益处，而由于政府的支

意义。

些家庭甚至将保险中的钱拿来入股。”

持，特别是银行存款准备金率的下调，已

投资者而太快发生改变。

香港大学经济学教授陈恒说：“不

同时散户借钱进行双倍投资的现象也

经证明迄今振奋投资者的万全之策就是提

管怎样这些都帮不上忙。波动性就意味着

在增加，这一做法被称为“保证金贷款”。

高股价。这似乎产生了交错的恶性和良性

所有的注意力都集中在短期收益上。目前

考虑到市场潜在连锁反应可能在经济中回

循环——实体经济越糟糕，中国股票表现

的市场回升是因为投资者不断追求股价上

弹，市场就应当放稳，监管部门一直都在

越好，而其所达到的高水平超越了传统市

涨，而上涨的股价又使提供给大陆市场少

打击这种做法，虽然只有一天，但在一月

场所标价水平。

的可怜的股息相形见绌。”

份惩罚了在上证综合指数中制造了当日最

陈恒说：“政府确实迫切需要股市的

只要股价上涨迅速，上市公司就几乎

大低谷的过分热情的经纪人。然而大陆两

繁荣。”目前的回升已经帮助了很多走下

不会有支付此类现金股利的动力。也并不

大交易所数据表明到四月底为止也没有出

坡路的国有企业调整资本，它们反过来又

是说如果有要求他们就一定可以做到，因

现有意义的减债，可见这种打击的效果同

为政府带来推动力，因为股市也在尝试解

为许多上市公司，尤其是国有企业正忙着

样是转瞬即逝。

决中国经济动力构成重大转变和年底将出

应对放缓发展的中国经济，他们第一季度 的利润很少，也有利润为零的。

另一方面 大陆市场和世界其他市场的另一个主 要区别在于投资者的组成：在伦敦和纽约 股市中，大型投资公司占主导地位，而深

倾向这种具有潜在危险性的投资方式

现的增长赤字加剧的问题。

可能是由于缺乏金融常识。近期的报告警

资本经济的埃文斯普里查德说，即使

告说去年新开账户中有三分之二的户主高

开始抛售，也不一定就会破产，因为政策

中都没有毕业，而这些账户占了大陆活跃

制定者会介入防止衰退加剧。他认为，决

A股账户的一大半。但陈恒表示这样的关

策者目前似乎不愿意这样做。这是时机的

注点太过狭窄。

问题，目前短期内不会发生这种情况，但

不久前有告诫认为教育水平越高，投

一定会在某个时间点发生。

China Economic Review | June 2015

85

话题

了解中国经济的10本书 日本《外交学者》曾经发布过《了解中国经济的10本书》，给那些试图了解中国经济和金融体系的 人推荐了一些了解中国经济的中英文书籍。

一、《避免崩溃》 作者：迈克尔 • 佩蒂斯 尽管作者被错误地认为是“唱衰中国者” ，此书讲述的并非是令人恐惧的故事。佩 蒂斯此前曾预言中国经济增速下降(已经 发生)，改革紧迫(中国领导人似乎认同这 点)以及债务不可持续地累积(现状如此)， 一个又一个事件都证明了这些预言的准确 性。这也令本书成为那些想要了解中国改 革进程的人的关键读物。本书回答了如下 问题：发生了什么？需要改变什么？若没 有改变又将如何？

二、《中国的超级银行》

银集团及小微金融领域)，这给予他一个有

作者：亨利 • 桑德森、迈克尔 • 福赛思

趣的视角来解读中国的影子银行系统。本

福赛思最近称彭博社对其报道进行审查，

书出版时，正值外界对影子金融的担忧与

八、《虎头蛇尾》

令这个新闻及金融信息机构陷入难堪。从

日俱增。因此，于那些对该领域感兴趣的

作者：乔纳森 • 范比

本书显而易见的细节和专业水准看，作者

人而言，这是本必读物。

作者对于中国的宏大观察包括了一些有趣 的洞见，如当代中国所面临的社会、环境

并非简单介绍中国国家开发银行的行动， 而是更进一步，就中国的增长模式、海外

五、《伟大的再平衡》

和政治因素。本书并未通过太多推断，便

资源获取战略及中国投资可能面临的一些

作者：迈克尔 • 佩蒂斯

将所有这些因素与中国经济联系在一起。

国际政治风险预测作出更多揭示。

他的第二本书对全球贸易体系及中国国内 政策如何影响国际观念作出完美的解读。

三、《红色资本主义》

九、《中国价格》 作者：亚历山大 • 哈尼

作者：沃尔特、豪伊

六、《中国的派系与金融》

本书探寻了中国增长奇迹中人的因素。它

这本书的出版引起轰动，被视为首批真正

作者：史宗瀚

是个极好的提醒：中国的国内生产总值、

解释中国金融系统诸多复杂领域的英文著

这本极佳的技术派著作深入研究了上世纪

出口数字及其他登上媒体头条的数据均是

作之一，尤其是地方政府融资平台如何创

80年代至90年代中国金融发展的秘密，

站在了人力辛苦劳作的金字塔上。

立和积累资本及中国债券市场特点。本书

还揭示了中国政治与金融是如何相互影响

还研究了中国经济中债务不断累积的问

的。

十、《崛起》 作者：乔治 • 马格努斯

题。

86

国，探寻稀缺将如何影响中国崛起。

七、《十亿人背后》

本书聚焦新兴市场在攀登“增长金字塔”

四、《中国影子银行内幕：

作者：达米安 • 马、威廉姆 • 亚当斯

过程中所面临的种种问题。一些关键问题

下一个次贷危机？》

近几十年来，试图将经济与政治和社会现

必须解决，尤其是人口老龄化和缺乏创

作者：张化桥

实分隔开来已成为一种趋势。而两名作者

新。作者强调，中国的一些困境需要机制

作者曾亲历中国的金融系统(人民银行、瑞

则透过经济、政治和社会视角来审视中

改革和政治改革，而这并非易事。

China Economic Review | June 2015

话题

中国将陷入中等收入陷阱 财政部部长楼继伟称，现在中国关键的任务是要跨过“中等收入陷阱”，这就要求我国在未来的 5至7年的时间里，做好全方位改革，解决市场中存在的扭曲。财政部部长楼继伟演讲资料整理。

界银行《东亚经济发展报告

世

阱—“中等收入陷阱”阶段。东亚许多

间，这是很低的收入。如果我们用美国人

（2006）》提出了“中等收入陷

国家，近几十年来飞速发展，由低收入国

均国民收入的45%来计算，世界上只有36

阱”的概念，基本涵义是指：鲜有中等收

家步入了中等收入国家之列。但随之而来

个国家超过了美国人均收入的45%，也就

入的经济体成功地跻身为高收入国家，这

的很可能就是“中等收入陷阱”。

是说绝大多数国家属于中等收入阶段。如

些国家往往陷入了经济增长的停滞期，既

“中等收入陷阱”发生的原因主要就

果看数据，很多国家实际上几十年甚至上

无法在工资方面与低收入国家竞争，又无

是低端制造业转型失败，低端制造业可以

百年都没有跨越中等收入，所以中等收入

法在尖端技术研制方面与富裕国家竞争。

带来中等收入，但是伴随而来的污染和低

陷阱的确是存在的。

按照世界银行的标准，2012年起，

质低价，都是恶性循环。低端制造改高端

中国的人均国内生产总值达到了6100美

制造，是完全靠高科技解决，而高科技不

元，已经进入中等收入偏上国家的行列。

是几十年能追赶的。

中国的中等收入陷阱 财政部部长楼继伟表示，中国在未

新兴市场国家突破人均GDP1000美

很多国家在中等收入区徘徊几十年上

来的5年或10年有50%以上的可能性会滑

元的“贫困陷阱”后，很快会奔向1000美

百年，要达到世行的中等收入标准，相对

入中等收入陷阱，并解释说这是因为中国

元至3000美元的“起飞阶段”；但到人均

比较容易，因为世行2012年的标准人均国

太快进入老龄化社会而引起的。楼继伟是

GDP3000美元附近，快速发展中积聚的

民收入(GNP)1035美元以上就是中等收入

在清华大学举行的“清华中国经济高层讲

矛盾集中爆发，自身体制与机制的更新进

国家了。1035美元及以下的低等收入国家

坛”上做出上述表示的。他称，现在中国

入临界，很多发展中国家在这一阶段由于

全世界只有20个。

关键的任务是要跨过“中等收入陷阱”，

经济发展自身矛盾难以克服，发展战略失

达到高收入的国家有多少呢？按照

实现6.5%-7%的经济增长速度，这就要

误或受外部冲击，经济增长回落或长期停

世行的标准，人均国民收入12615美元以

求我国在未来的5至7年的时间里，做好全

滞，人均国民收入难以突破1万美元，陷

上就是高收入国家，12615美元的收入

方位改革，解决市场中仍然存在的扭曲。

入经济学家所谓的摆在东亚国家面前的陷

水平，只有美国的四分之一到五分之一之

对于跨过“中等收入陷阱”的措施， 楼继伟主要列出以下五个方面的措施： 一是农业改革，减少对粮食的全方 位补贴，鼓励农产品进口。楼继伟称中国 人总有战争思维，认为一旦发生战争，我 国当前大量进口农产品会被阻断，但他认 为即便发生战争，也能靠“换草退耕、还 湿退耕”来保证农产品库存。因此目前应 鼓励农产品进口，才能进一步转移农村的 劳动力，弥补制造业、服务业的劳动力短 缺，使工资增速低于生产率的增速。 二是户籍改革，要从法律的角度， 打破迁户口的障碍，让各地允许租房落 户。他说，国务院于2014年7月颁布的户 籍制度改革文件，截至目前为止只有14个 省市出台了落实方法，但人们最愿意落户 的省份却没放开。因此，为了打破劳动力 流动的一些阻力，国家要提供教育、医疗

88

China Economic Review | June 2015

话题

等资源，让转移的人口真正稳定到城市里 面去。 三是在劳动关系上，不能像欧美国 家，员工以区域或者行业为单位进行联 合，与雇主强势地谈判。要让企业和员工 个体决定，增加就业的灵活性。 四是土地改革，农村建设用地（分 为宅基地、工业用地、集体的经济用地） 交一笔钱以后，就能像城镇土地那样流 转。在土地交易的过程中，政府不能征地 拆迁，而应由农民自主决定，并和买地的 一方谈判，怎么再就业，怎么交社保领 社保。 五是在社会保险的问题上，要划拨国 有资本，充实社保基金以适当降低社保费 率，真正建立“多交多得”的机制。因为 1997年以前，社保制度没有建立起来，国 企职工没有缴纳养老保险，只有靠划拨国 有资本才能解决之前未交部分的亏欠。而 目前的社保制度的给付、收缴、投资收益 及替代率等比率必须做出相应调整，不然 我国将过不去即将到来的快速老龄化。 楼继伟认为，如果完成三中全会、四 中全会关于2020年的任务，我国将绕开 “中等收入陷阱”，但同时他也提出，其 中最大的难题是去杠杆化的问题。他提 出，不能再积累杠杆率，否则高杠杆爆发 之时是无法收拾的。 只搞服务业是不太可能成为一个发达国家

成功跨越的国家有八大特点， 中国八缺一 那些成功从中等收入迈进高收入的国

该最主要是教育。

的，特别是大国。工业化一定要深入，工

穷人数量大的时候，他们对教育的

业占比一定要足够高，对就业的贡献要达

投资就会比较低。就像我们现在看到很多

到30%以上，并持续20年到25年以上。

农村的孩子，靠低收入的打工挣钱。再过

家，过程具备共性。托尔斯泰说幸福的家

第五就是出口，这些成功的经济体一

五到十年，他们的工作全会被机器替代。

庭是一样的，不幸的家庭各有各的不幸。

定是制造业出口占大数，中国目前比较符

因为以他们这种教育水平，将来收入水平

幸福的家庭有什么特点？

合的。

不可能随着经济增长的速度而增长。按照

首先是高储蓄，高投资。中国目前的

第六，宏观经济方面比较稳定，没有

我们人均收入的增长速度6%-7%，也就

储蓄率和投资率高，但要跨越中等收入陷

恶性通货膨胀。财政政策比较稳健，政府

是说按照今天的价值预算，十年后农民工

阱没，有较高的储蓄率和投资率几乎是不

不乱花钱，特别不是把财政货币化，一手

的起始工资就要超过一千美元。如果他的

可能的。

印钱一手发债券 。

教育水平达不到一定的高度，要拿到这

第二是较高的人力资源水平，劳动 人口受教育水平高。中国在这方面有所提 高。 第三是都有比较好的医疗条件，特别 是婴儿死亡率比较低，预期寿命比较高。 第四，制造业发展比较好。一个国家

第七，就是政治上比较稳定，没有大 的政治波动。

个工资是不现实的。目前根据北大的调 查统计，在农村地区21-30岁的人口当

第八，是中国没有达到的，所有成功

中，5.8%为文盲或半文盲，13.7%只有小

的经济体都比较平等，他们的基尼系数比

学文化水平，49.0%初中毕业，三者加起

较低，分配平均。像台湾、日本、韩国。

来超过三分之二。这一劳动力群体，对中

这个不平等在哪方面会阻碍国家成长？应

国的未来发展是非常严峻的挑战。

China Economic Review | June 2015

89

话题

品牌精致化时代来临 改革开放以来，制造产业快速发展，中国一度被称为“世界工厂”，随着人口红利的消失、土地成 本、用工成本的增加，中国的制造业面临着由低端加工到高端制造的转型，中国的经济也面临着从 粗犷型向集约型过渡，同样中国的本土品牌也要从粗犷型品牌向精致型品牌转型。 文 | 李光斗 （微信公众号：李光斗品牌观察）

品

牌形象部分传播最广、最能代表品

国际巨头纷纷变脸以适应新时代的

信工业公司，公司的创始人盛田昭夫决定

牌精神和理念的就是品牌名称和图

步伐，代表新时代的精神。1972年，美

给公司改一个能打入美国市场乃至全球市

国新泽西标准石油公司决定换掉原来的名

场的名字。当时“SONNY”一词（意为

改革开放以来，制造产业快速发展，

字，于是历时3年，动员了心理学、社会

“精力旺盛的小伙子”）颇为流行，盛田

中国一度被称为“世界工厂”，随着人口

学、语言学等各方面专家，先后调查了

昭夫觉得不错。但按照日本语言的罗马字

红利的消失、土地成本、用工成本的增

55个国家和地区的风俗习惯，从1万个名

拼法要读成“Soh-nee”，在日文中有

加，中国的制造业面临着由低端加工到高

称中，选出8个，再把8个名字放到100

“损失金钱”的意思，最后决定去掉了一

端制造的转型，中国的经济也面临着从粗

多种语言中进行研究，充分考虑品牌名

个n，定为“SONY”。SONY一词不仅

犷型向集约型过渡，同样中国的本土品牌

称各种文字的音、形、谐音、误解、近

独特、简短，而且哪一个国家都能保持相

也要从粗犷型品牌向精致型品牌转型。随

义、联想等因素，最后确定把企业名称定

同的发音。后来SONY就成为一个世界著

着国际化竞争强度加剧、消费者需求升

为“EXXON”：埃克森。这次改名共花

名品牌。

级、中国经济已从产品竞争时代走向品牌

费了1亿美元，还不包括其后的巨额宣传和

竞争时代，这些都使品牌精致化成了当务

推广费用。

形，这些共同组成了品牌logo。

之急。

90

China Economic Review | June 2015

日本的SONY公司，原来叫东京通

从2003年7月起，松下电器将其在中 国的所有家电产品都统一为Panasonic商 标，停止使用原来的National商标。此次

话题

行动，估计花费达到了200亿－300亿日元 左右。

是典型的中外合作企业与品牌形象。

球的公司，因而名字也应该是响亮的、国

1991年海尔进行企业与产品名称的

际化的。为了注册一个好的名字，马云思

关于松下更名，据说在全球都很成

统一，将企业更名为青岛琴岛海尔集团有

索了很久。直到有一次在美国一家餐厅吃

功，但在中国却一度成为笑谈。都知道松

限公司产品商标同步过的度为：“琴岛海

饭时，他突发奇想，找来了餐厅服务员，

下宿敌是索尼，而Panasonic用汉语音

尔”，推出以“大海上冉冉升起的太阳”

问他是否知道阿里巴巴这个名字。服务员

译过来恰恰就是“怕了索尼客”，这让松

为设计理念的新标志和海尔蓝企业色。

回答说知道，并且还跟马云说阿里巴巴打

下非常郁闷，也让老对手索尼着实得意了

伴随海尔向国际化方向发展，海尔

开宝藏的咒语是“芝麻开门”。之后马云

很长一段时间。于是松下管理层破例决定

顺应世界设计潮流，为符合企业国际化形

又在各地反复地询问他人，经过这个测

在中国所有的产品除了使用Panasonic以

象，开始追求松下，索尼等世界性大公司

试，马云发现阿里巴巴的故事被全世界的

外，不得不保留了“松下”两个汉字。

商标形象设计，直接以“Haier”拼音作

人所熟知，并且不论语种，发音也近乎一

国内企业大部分起步于上世纪八十年

为（英文）主识别标志，以中文标准字

致。“从我外婆到我儿子，他们都读阿里

代，人们对于品牌的理解还很肤浅，仅仅

“海尔”及两个儿童吉祥物与之组合，辅

巴巴。”就这样，一锤定音，马云将“阿

是一个符号而已，随着中国加入WTO、全

助推广，形成完整，简洁的标识体系，同

里巴巴”确定为公司的名字。

球经济一体化的潮流来袭，本土企业逐渐

时将企业名称简化为“海尔集团”。此次

意识到品牌的力量。

变动，得到一致好评。

既然那么多的人都知道阿里巴巴， 知道关于芝麻开门的故事，那么阿里巴巴

联想成立于1984年，为了走出国

但是，与“海尔”汉语拼音完全

这个域名很可能早已存在。果不其然，当

门，在2003年时毅然废弃了已经沉淀了近

契合的“Haier”，却在英文中无法读

马云兴高采烈地去注册域名时，却被告知

200亿元无形资产的老标识“Legend”，

通，也就是说，美国人不知道“Haier”

“阿里巴巴”域名已被一个加拿大人买下

取而代之的是新标识“Lenovo”。

如何读。为此，海尔集团不得不花上数

了。

“Lenovo”在英文字典里查不到，是联想

以亿计的投入，并巧妙利用Haier与英

但是，马云认准了这个域名将来会

花大钱请专门的品牌咨询管理公司生造出

文Higher（更高）谐音，大张旗鼓地

流传全世界，所以，他并没有放弃努力，

来的，据说有传奇、创新的含义，是一个

推广“Haier，Higher”，以教会美国

而是在当时的启动资金50万元中，拿出

彻头彻尾的国际化品牌标识。

人“Haier”的英文读法。

了1万美元从那个加拿大人手中买回了阿

海尔第一代企业标志诞生于1984

同样的，马云当初在成立阿里巴巴

里巴巴的域名。虽然代价不菲，但是比起

年，当时的产品名为“琴岛-利勃海尔”，

的时候，为名字也破费了不少心思。最初

Google斥资百万赎回两个CN域名的个

图形标志以德方为基础，经加笔划而成，

创立阿里巴巴的时候，虽然创业资本很

案，马云的这一步也许走得并不亏。

设计中德合作的两个儿童作吉祥图案。这

少，但马云还是将未来的公司定位为全

2005年4月，全球互联网搜索巨头 Google以百万美元巨资买回了几年前被 别人抢注的CN域名google.com.cn和 google.cn，创下了CN域名史上交易的 最高价。这两个域名几年前曾被北京国网 公司先后抢注，Google为了夺回google. com.cn域名，曾向中国国际经济贸易仲裁 委员会提出争议请求，但被驳回。遇挫之 后，Google选择了赎买，而赎买的成交金 额在百万美元以上。这一天价成交事件， 也在域名投资界掀起了不小的波澜。 现在，品牌粗放式发展时期已经过 去，企业要想取得更长久的发展，就要走 品牌精致化路线，随着人们消费习惯的改 变以及移动互联网时代的到来，社群经济 正越来越被人们所重视，品牌发展该走什 么路线也成为了不少人思考的问题。未 来，小众化、精致化既是品牌发展的趋

核心地段的成熟项目仍能拥有良好的资产表现

势，也是新形势下对品牌形象的要求。

China Economic Review | June 2015

91

LOOKING AT CHINA

Ups and downs The Maserati index is doing very well

By Graham Earnshaw

I

am not particularly interested in cars. As long as they have four wheels and get me to where I want to go, I consider it to be an excellent vehicle. But I’m struck by the number of extraordinarily expensive and luxurious cars that are suddenly appearing on the roads of China’s major cities.

I am reliably informed by people who do care about these things that the car of choice for the disgustingly rich these days is the Maserati, and the number of Maseratis that I have seen on the roads of major cities in China in the past few months has exploded.

How to explain this phenomenon?

Well, obviously it’s all about money.

And in recent months, the place where money is coming from for people in China with enough disposable income and a sufficiently sophisticated approach to sedan cars to consider the purchase of a Maserati is not the property market and not export factories but, of course, the Chinese stock markets.

I admit I missed this stock market boom. My prediction, based stupidly on logic, was that China’s stock market in an era of increasing uncertainty in terms of economic outlook was likely to stay in the 2,000 to 2,500 range. With the Shanghai index now well over 4,000, my prospects as a stock analyst clearly not bright.

In hindsight, it is easy to work out what happened. The property market can no longer provide the moneyed

92

China Economic Review | June 2015

classes with the return they require because there of over-construction. It will take years for the property market in most parts of China to establish equilibrium. But like any moneyed class, China’s requires access to some kind of gravy train. And so it was collectively decided to return to the old game of playing the stock markets, which had been moribund for years.

So they have done well again, China’s moneyed classes, and they have bought lots of Maseratis. Also benefiting are the many state enterprises listed on China’s stock markets, and other companies that in the past six months have been able to float shares on the public markets with sometimes extraordinary multiples.

Structurally, this provides a solution to how enterprises both state and private raise money to fund operations and inefficiencies without having to rely on loans from the extended and slightly wobbly state banks. This is in theory a good thing and is the role that stock markets should play.

So on the positive side, we have the Maseratis and we have a solution to the funding problem besetting larger companies both state and private. But there is a negative side to this as well.

The problem is that valuations of the China’s stock market as a whole and of individual companies are now at skyhigh levels that are impossible to justify on the basis of profit outlook. The higher the multiples, the higher the risk.

It all depends upon market sentiment.

In the herd instinct-driven world of China, things should be fine for a while, and one of my friends who has reason to pay serious attention to the stock market predicted to me recently that the Shanghai index could go as high as 8,000 sometime next year.

But to what extent do the wider mass of Chinese people benefit from the stock market boom? My guess is very little. And in the cash-starved real economy, companies without the scale to look to a listing are really struggling. The banks are not lending. What impacts on the lives of most Chinese people is firstly the real economy, and secondly the property market because an apartment is the major investment of most Chinese families.

The real economy is doing very poorly this year, even worse than last year, according to everyone. And the property market is also by general consensus in dire straits. Ten years ago, my sense was ordinary Chinese people were leaping into the stock market with abandon. This time, the number of people actively trading stocks has risen but it not as widespread as in previous booms. Ordinary Chinese people are feeling cautious, and I don’t blame them in spite of the obvious fortunes to be made from playing stocks.

Still, I look at the cars. The Ferraris are ridiculous, and some of the large SUVs are obscene. But I wouldn’t mind having a Maserati.

看中国

跌宕起伏 玛莎拉蒂指数发展势头良好 文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

我

本身对车子并不是特别感兴趣。

晏格文

对我而言，它只要有四个轮子并

晏格文先生是一位资深媒体人士、书籍作家、翻译

且能载我到想去的地方，就是个不错的代

家、出版人、和音乐家在中国香港和内地已经生活了

步工具。但如今面对中国大城市马路上人

近30年。晏格文先生以其独特的视角和对中国的深深

们突然开着各式各样的豪车，我还是为之

的敬意，从第一次造访大陆的1978年以来，一直不

一震。

断地对中国历史、语言、经济和传统文化进行深度探

有些平时爱看车的人告诉我玛莎拉蒂

究与传播。

是那些土豪的首选代步工具，而过去的几 个月，我也留意到中国大城市马路上的玛

1973年晏格文先生从英国移居香港，担任南华早报

莎拉蒂数量明显暴增。怎么解释这个现象

记者和编辑。1976年，他加入了英国著名新闻集

呢？好吧，我只能说是钱在作怪。在近几

团路透社。之后担任路透社北京分社社长（1985-

个月，影响中国人可支配收入及滋生他们

1987年），东京首席记者（1987-1989），并于1990-1995年担任路透社亚洲主

想购入玛莎拉蒂的想法并非是房地产和出

编。1996年，他在香港和上海成立了中媒集团。2008年至2010年，兼任北京《新

口贸易，而是中国的股票市场。 事实上，我错失了过去几个月股市 的一路飘红。面对中国前景未卜的股票市 场，我用自己愚蠢的逻辑预测股指很可能

华财经》的责任主编。晏格文先生陆续出版了多部著作，包括《老上海记》和《步 行中国》等。他翻译的金庸武侠小说《书剑恩仇录》由牛津大学出版社于2004年出 版。他的高知名度的《晏子书斋》则出版与收录了近百本100多年前的外国人在中国 的、关于中国历史人文与自身经历的书籍。

停留在2000到2500点，然而，现在上海 的股票指数已经越过了4000点，人们也不 以借此机会去融资，而不需要去向本已不

体中，那些没有规模的公司是在苦苦挣扎

回想起来，很容易想通是什么促使了

稳定的国有银行贷款。从理论上来讲，股

着的，银行也不会愿意去借他们资金。事

股市的暴涨。因为当今土地大面积过度开

市飘红是件好事，这也是它本该发挥出的

实上，真正影响大多数中国人生活的只有

发建造的原因，房地产市场已经不能再给

作用。

两个原因，一是实体经济，二是房地产市

再迫切需要咨询我这个股票分析师了。

那些金钱至上的牟利者所期预的回报。人

所以从正面角度来说，股市飘红让人

们也需要花费数年去均衡未来房地产市场

们买得起玛莎拉蒂，也解决了围绕大型国

的发展。但不像其他国家的牟利者一样，

有企业和私有企业融资的问题。但与此同

中国的投资者们将会不遗余力地涌向那些

时，它也带来了些负面影响。

场，因为现如今，大多数中国家庭还是更 愿意投资房产。 大家都说中国的实体经济今年表现非 常不佳，甚至比去年更糟糕。大家所达成

高收益、低付出的行业。因此，房地产市

问题是，据估测，中国的股票市场和

的普遍共识是：房地产市场陷入困境。10

场投资已成过去，为之而取代的是大量金

那些私有企业股指都处于持续上升状态，

年前，20年前，我感觉普通中国人正进入

钱涌入股票市场，虽然它已不再是新兴投

面对其未来的利益前景，人们很难客观地

股票市场，成为放纵的当日交易者，好像

资行业，并且发展停滞不前已有数年了。

去评估它，这就造成了风险。股指增长倍

几乎每个人都在炒股。这次，我感觉活跃

股市数月的暴涨造就了很多暴发户，

数越高，风险越大。这也取决于人们对于

在股票交易市场的中国人数量已经上涨，

他们很多人也买起了玛莎拉蒂。股市的飘

市场的敏感度。中国人做事爱凭感觉，我

但没有以往广泛。普通中国人变得谨慎，

红也让中国股票市场的许多国有企业受益

有个朋友最近自信地向我预测下一年的上

我不是责备他们，尽管玩股票能获得可观

良多，在过去半年，其他许多公司的股票

海股指将会在某段时间飙升至8000点。

的财富。

但大多数的中国人能从股市暴涨中

现在我仍然看着车子。法拉利让我觉

从根本上来说，股市的暴涨也给国有

盈利什么呢？我觉得他们获得的只是微

得可笑，一些大型运动休旅车大得粗俗，

企业和私有企业带来了福音，因为它们可

乎其乎。毕竟在这个金钱至上的实体经济

但是我不介意有辆玛莎拉蒂。

份额随之成倍地增长。

China Economic Review | June 2015

93

LISTING Accounting Firms

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94

Hotels

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Capital International Airport

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China Economic Review | June 2015

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Leasing Enquiries

No. 6 Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

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& Resorts PTE. Ltd. Shanghai

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Office

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Language Schools

Fax: +86 10 8588 9599

Real Estate/ Serviced Apartments

Shanghai Lanson Place Jin Qiao Serviced

19/F Phase 1 Huanmao Building

Residences

999 Huaihai Road Central,

enquiry.lpjq@lansonplace.com

MandarinKing

Shanghai

No. 27 & 28, Lane 399 Zao

www.mandarinking.cn

Tel: +86 21 6141 7799

Zhuang Road, Pudong, Shanghai

Shanghai

Fax: +86 21 6391 8220

Tel: +86 21 5013 3888

No.555 West Nanjing Road, Room 1207 12th Floor, Plaza

Savills Residence Century Park

PR Agencies

www.savillsresidence.com

555 Shanghai, PRC

Ketchum Newscan Public

Oakwood Residence Shanghai

No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu

Course Inquiry: 400 618 6685

Relations

www.oakwoodasia.com

Road Pudong

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 1063

www.ketchum.com

103 Wuning Road, Putuo District,

Shanghai 201303

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 8671

Shanghai

Shanghai 200063

PRC

study@mandarinking.cn

218 Tianmu Road West

China

Tel: +86 21 5197 6688

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Tel: +86 21 6183 0830

info@savillsresidence.com

Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

reservations.ors@oakwoodasia.

Beijing

Beijing

com

Hotel New Otani Chang Fu Gong

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

www.cfgbj.com

Chaoyang

26 Jianguomenwai Avenue,

Tel: +86 10 5907 0055

Chaoyang,Beijing

Fax: +86 10 5907 0188

Hotels

Real Estate/ Business Park

Tel: +86 10 5877 5555 Fax: +86 10 6513 9810

Real Estate/Mixed-Use

cfg@cfgbj.com

Mapletree Business City

Kempinski Hotel Beijing

Shanghai & VivoCity Shanghai

Park View Apartment

Lufthansa Center

www.mbcshanghai.com

wwww.parkview-sh.com

www.kempinski.com/beijing

www.vivocityshanghai.com

Block 1-4, No. 888

Sandhill Plaza

50 Liangmaqiao Road,

Junction of Gudai Road and Qixin

Changning Road

www.sandhillplaza.cn

Chaoyang, Beijing

Road

Shanghai, 200042

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

Tel: +86 10 6465 3388

Leasing Enquiries:

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

Hi-Tech Park

Fax: +86 10 6410 4080

Tel (office): +86 21 6037 8186

leasing@parkview-sh.com

Shanghai 201303

Kempinski Hotel Wuxi

Tel (retail): +86 21 6037 8198

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

www.kempinski.com/wuxi 18 Yonghe Road, Nanchang

Leasing@sandhill.cn

Real Estate/Commercial Real Estate/HOPSCA

Wuxi, Jiangsu

Jing An Kerry Centre

Tel: +86 510 8108 8888

www.jingankerrycentre.com

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

Fax: +86 510 8108 8000

Unit 901, 9F, Tower 1

Development Co., Ltd

info.wuxi@kempinski.com

Jing An Kerry Centre

www.antinganting.com.cn

Grand Hyatt Shanghai

1515 Nanjing Road West

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

www.shanghai.grand.hyatt.com

Shanghai

Lanson Place Central Park

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

Jin Mao Tower, 88 Century

China 200040

Residences

Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

China Economic Review | June 2015

95

LISTING Fax: +86 21 6950 2833

15/F, One Corporate Avenue,

9/F, Eco City, No.1788 West

2/F, ShanghaiMart, No.2299

No.222 Hubin Road, Huangpu

Nanjing Road, Jing’an District

West Yan’an Road, Changning

District

Shanghai Centre

District

Shanghai

Bund Centre

5/F, West Office Tower Shanghai

Maxdo Centre [Coming Soon]

Shanghai Aurora Office

18/F, Bund Centre, No.222 East

Centre, No.1376 West Nanjing

43/F, Maxdo Centre, No.8 Xingyi

Equipment

Yan’an Road, Huangpu District

Road, Jing’an District

Road, Changning District

388 Jiaxin Road, Jiading

Raffles City

Garden Square [New]

Silver Centre

Shanghai

51/F, Raffles City, No.268 Middle

11/F, Garden Square, No.968

No.1388, North Shaan Xi Road,

Tel: +86 21 5916 4588

Xizang Road, Huangpu District

West Beijing Road, Jing’an

Putuo District

Fax: +86 21 5990 3429

The Headquarters

District

Central Towers

25/F, The Headquarters

Nanjing West Road

11F, Tower B, Central Towers,

Building, No.168 Middle Xizang

18/F, Shanghai Oriental Centre,

No.567 Lan Gao Road, Putuo

Road, Huangpu District

No.699 West Nanjing Road,

District

Hong Kong Plaza

Jing’an District

Zhabei Centro

26/F, Hong Kong Plaza, No.283

Yueda 889

22/F, Zhabei Centro, No.568

Middle Huai Hai Road, Huangpu

8/F, Yueda 889, No.1111

Hengfeng Road, Zhabei District

District

Changshou Road, Jing’an

One Prime

Silver Court

District

25/F, One Prime, No.360 Wu Jin

3/F, Silver Court Office Tower,

The Tower

Road, Hongkou District

No.85 Taoyuan Road, Huangpu

14/F, Jinjiang Xiangyang Tower,

Harbour One

District

No.993 West Nanjing Road,

16/F, Harbour One, No.1080

Shanghai Tower [Coming Soon]

Jing’an District

Dong Da Ming Road, Hongkou

29/F, Shanghai Tower, Dongtai

Henderson 688 [Coming Soon]

District

Road, Pudong, Lujiazui

16/F, Henderson 688, No.688

Baoland Plaza [New]

Jin Mao Tower

West Nanjing Road, Jing’an

16/F, Tower B, Baoland Square,

31/F, Jin Mao Tower, No.88 Shiji

District

No.688 Dalian Road, Yangpu

Avenue, Pudong, Lujiazui

ICC

District

21st Century

7/F, One ICC, Shanghai ICC,

KIC Yangpu

Service Providers

Serviced Offices

6/F, The 21st Century Tower,

No.999 Middle Huaihai Road,

9/F, Tower 12, KIC III, No.333

Regus Serviced Office

No.210 Shiji Avenue, Pudong,

Xuhui District

Songhu Road, Yangpu District

• Flexible office leases from 1

Lujiazui

CCIG International Plaza

The Hub [Coming Soon]

Aurora Plaza

12/F, Building A, CCIG Int’l

5/F, The Hub, No.29 Suhong

11/F, Aurora Plaza, No.99

Plaza, No.331 North Caoxi Road,

Road, Minhang District

Fucheng Road, Pudong, Lujiazui

Xuhui District

BEIJING (19 LOCATIONS)

Standard Chartered Lujiazui

Huaihai Plaza [New]

Lei Shing Hong Plaza [New]

day to 1 year • Quick and easy to set up for 1-200 people • Prices from RMB180 per month

96

5/F, Standard Chartered Tower,

28/F, Huaihai Plaza, No.1045

5/F, Tower C, Lei Shing Hong

• Find more on Regus.cn

No.201 Shiji Avenue, Pudong,

Middle Huihai Road, Xuhui

Plaza, No.8 Wangjing Street,

• Tel: 400 120 1207

Lujiazui

District

Chaoyang District

SHANGHAI (37 LOCATIONS)

BEA Finance Tower

CCIG Int’l Plaza Lv 17 [Coming

Sun Dong An Plaza [New]

Central Plaza [New]

15/F, BEA Finance Tower,

Soon]

7/F, Office Tower 2, Sun Dong

2/F, Central Plaza, No.227 North

No.66 Hua Yuan Shi Qiao Road,

17/F, Building A, CCIG Int’l

An Plaza, No.138 Wangfujing,

Huangpi Road, Huangpu District

Pudong, Lujiazui

Plaza, No.331 North Caoxi Road,

Avenue, Dongcheng District

Shui On Plaza

Plaza 66

Xuhui District

Zhongyu Mansion [Coming

12/F, Shui On Plaza, No.333

15/F, Tower 2, Plaza 66, No.1266

Grand Gateway [Coming Soon]

Soon]

Middle Huaihai Road, Huangpu

West Nanjing Road, Jing’an

48/F, Grand Gateway, No.1

6/F, Zhongyu Mansion, No.6

District

District

Hongqiao Road, Xuhui District

North Workers Stadium Road,

One Corporate Avenue

Eco City

Shanghai Mart Hongqiao

Chaoyang District

China Economic Review | June 2015

LISTING Diplomatic [Coming Soon]

6/F, Tower 2, Prosper Center,

Huanshi Road, Yuexiu District

No.25 Tongxing Street

17/F, Tower E, Liangmaqiao,

No.5 Guang Hua Road,

G.T. Land Plaza - Tower F

Zhongshan District

Diplomatic Office Building, 3rd

Chaoyang District

[Coming Soon]

Xiwang Tower

Embassy District, Chaoyang

Financial St. Excel Centre

22/F, Tower F, G.T. Land Plaza,

9/F, Xiwang Tower

District

12/F, Financial Street Excel,

No. 85 Huacheng Avenue,

No.136 Zhongshan Road

Kerry Centre - South Tower

Centre, No.6 Wudinghou Street,

Tianhe District

Zhongshan District

[Coming Soon]

Xicheng District

Lai Fung Tower [Coming Soon]

QINGDAO

10/F, South Tower, Kerry

NCI Centre

8/F, Lai Fung Tower, No.761

China Overseas Building

Centre, No.1 Guanghua Road,

15/F, NCI Tower, No.12A

East Dongfeng Road, Yuexiu

7/F, China Overseas Building

Chaoyang District

Jianguomenwai Street,

District

No.76 Yanji Road

China World Tower 3

Chaoyang District

SHENZHEN (8 LOCATIONS)

Shibei District

15/F, China World Tower 3,

Taikang Financial Tower

Futian Anlian

SHENYANG

No.1 Jianguomenwai Street,

23/F, Taikang Financial Tower,

26/F, Anlian Centre

Fortune Plaza

Chaoyang District

No.38 East Third Ring Road,

No.4018 Jintian Road

17/F, Fortune Plaza Tower A

Lufthansa Centre

Chaoyang District

Futian District

No.61 Beizhan Road

C203, Lufthansa Centre, No.50

Zhongguancun Metropolis

A8 Building

Shenhe District

Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang

Tower

15/F, A8 Building

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

District

7/F, Metropolis Tower, No.2

No.1002 Keyuan Road

Golden Valley Centre

Kerry Centre

Dongsan Street, Zhongguancun

Tech Zone, Nanshan District

11/F, Building 1, Golden Valley

11/F, North Tower, Kerry

Xi Zone, Haidian District

Futian NEO

Centre

Centre, No.1 Guanghua Road,

GUANGZHOU (9 LOCATIONS)

44/F, NEO Tower A

Jinwan Plaza, No.1 Binjiang

Chaoyang District

The Place [New]

No.6011 Shennan Avenue

Avenue

Pacific Century Place

8/F, The Placec, No.618 Xingang

Futian District

Heping District

14/F, IBM Tower, No.2A North

East Road, Haizhu District

SCC

Tianjin Centre

Workers Stadium Road,

Pearl River Tower

7/F, Tower A, SCC Financial

8/F, Tianjin Centre

Chaoyang District

21/F, Pearl River Tower, No.15

Centre, Junction of Houhai

No.219 Nanjing Road

China Central Place

West Zhujiang Road, Tianhe

Avenue & First Haide Avenue

Heping District

9/F, Tower 2, China Central

District

Nanshan District

SHIJIAZHUANG

Place, No.79 Jianguo Road,

City Development Plaza

New World Centre

Suning Life Square

Chaoyang District

25/F, City Development Plaza,

23/F, New World Centre

12/F, Suning Life Square

Parkview Green

No.189 West Ti Yu Road, Tianhe

No.6009 Yitian Road

No.77 Zhongshan Road

15/F, Office Building A Parkview,

District

Futian District

Xinhua District

Green, No.9 Dongdaqiao Road,

Tianhe Center Plaza

Times Financial Centre

ZHENGZHOU

Chaoyang District

Tower A, 23/F, Center Plaza,

14/F Times Financial Centre

Kineer IFC

China Life Tower

No.161 West Linhe Road, Tianhe

No. 4001 Shennan Avenue

18/F, Building 4

5/F, China Life Tower, No.16

District

Futian District

No.88 East Jinshui Road

Chaoyangmenwai Street,

G.T.Land Plaza

New Times Plaza

Zhengdong New District

Chaoyang District

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1, G.T,

3/F, New Times Plaza

XI’AN (2 LOCATIONS)

China Life - West

Land Plaza, No.85 Huacheng,

No.1 Taizi Road

Metropolis

West, 5/F, China Life Tower,

Avenue, Tianhe District

Shekou District

11/F, Tower A, Xi’an Chang’an

No.16 Chaoyangmenwai Street,

Tianhe Teem Tower

Panglin Plaza

Metropolis Centre, No.88 Nan

Chaoyang District

13/F, Teem Tower, No.208

35/F, Panglin Plaza

Guan Zheng Street, Beilin

IFC

Tianhe Road, Tianhe District

No.2002 Jiabin Road

District

10/F, IFC East Tower, No.8

Guangdong International

Luohu District

Capita Mall Office

Jianguomenwai Street,

Building

DALIAN (2 LOCATIONS)

11/F, Capita Mall

Chaoyang District

7/F, Main Tower, Guangdong

World Trade Center

No.64 South Second Ring Road

Prosper Center

Int’l Building, No.339 East

12/F, World Trade Center

Yanta District

China Economic Review | June 2015

97

LISTING

98

CHENGDU (5 LOCATIONS)

35/F, HNA Poly Plaza

10/F, Nison Plaza

DONGGUAN

China Resources Building

No.235 Minsheng Road

No.205 Suzhou West Avenue

TBA Tower

32/F, China Resources Building

Yuzhong District

SIP

46/F, TBA Tower

No.10 Shuangqing Road

World Financial Centre

HANGZHOU (3 LOCATIONS)

No.11 Dongguan Avenue

Chenghua District

19/F, Chongqing WFC

Delixi Mansion

Dongcheng District

Yandlord Landmark

No.188 Minzu Road

9/F, Building A, Delixi Mansion

ZHUHAI

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Yuzhong District

No.28 Xueyuan Road

Zhuhai WFC

Building

NANJING (3 LOCATIONS)

Xihu District

12/F, WFC

No.1 Section 2, South Renmin

Jinling - Asia Pacific Tower

Euro America Center

No.1009 Middle Jiuzhou Avenue

Road

8/F, Jinling Hotel

4/F, Euro America Center

Jida, Xiangzhou District

Jinjiang District

Asia Pacific Tower

No.18 Jiaogong Road

XIAMEN

IFS

No.2 Hanzhong Road

Xihu District

International Plaza

25/F, Tower 1, IFS

Gulou District

Foreign Economy & Trade

8/F, International Plaza

No.1 Hongxing Road Section 3

Suning Wisdom Valley

Plaza

No.8 Lujiang Road

Jinjiang District

8/F, Building E07

8/F, Building B, Zhejiang FET

Siming District

Square One

Suning Wisdom Valley

No.468 Yan’an Road

KUNMING

11/F, Square One

No.301 Hanzhongmen Avenue

Xiacheng District

Master

No.18 Dongyu Street

Gulou District

CHANGSHA

16/F, East Tower

Jinjiang District

Kingsley

Wall Street

Dongfangshouzuo

Times Plaza

13/F, Kingsley Int’l Mansion

17/F, Wall Street Centre

No.1 Chongren Street Jinbi

26/F, Times Plaza

No.169 Hanzhong Road

No.288 Furong Middle Road

Road

No.2 Zongfu Road

Qinhuai District

Section One, Kaifu District

Wuhua District

Jinjiang District

NINGBO (2 LOCATIONS)

NANCHANG

WUHAN (3 LOCATIONS)

China Life

Yangyang Spring

Wuhan Tiandi

18/F, China Life Tower

15/F, Tower 1, Yangyang

8/F, Corporate Centre 5

No.777 Lingqiao Road

Spring Investment Building

No.1628 Zhong Shan Avenue

Haishu District

No.66 EastYangming Road

Jiang’an District

Raffles City

Donghu District

Hua’s IFC

8/F, Raffles City

FUZHOU

10/F, Hua’s IFC

No.99 South Daqing Road

Rongdu Int’l Building

No.193 Hong Kong Road

Jiangbei District

10/F, Rongdu Int’l Building,

Jianghan District

WUXI (2 LOCATIONS)

Intersection of Wusi Road &

Poly Plaza

Hongdou International Plaza

Qingcheng Road, Gulou District

18/F, Wuhan Poly Plaza

25/F, Hongdou Int’l Plaza

FOSHAN

No.99 Zhongnan Road

No.531 Zhongshan Road

Huahui Building

Wuchang District

Chong’an District

15/F, Huahui Building

CHONGQING (4 LOCATIONS)

Suning Life Square

No.46 Zumiao Road

PICC

11/F, North Tower

Chancheng District

10/F

Suning Life Square

PICC Building, Block-D

No.109 Middle Renmin Road

Jiangbei District

Chong’an District

To have your company featured in these pages, please contact our

Yangtze River

SUZHOU (2 LOCATIONS)

representatives at:

International Plaza

Jinghope Plaza

ྙሯఓࡿਣ৛ႊቧᇦLj஺༿ೊᇹྙሆঌᐊཽǖ

33/F, 22 Nanbin Road

11/F, Tower 2, Jinghope Plaza

Nan’an District

No.88 Hua Chi Street

HNA & Poly

SIP

International Centre

Nison Plaza

China Economic Review | June 2015

ᎆୈ Email: marketing@sinomedia.net ࢟જ Tel: +86 21 53859061 2205, Shanghai Plaza, No.138 Huaihaizhong Rd, Shanghai, China, 200021 ᒦਪ࿟਱ှઠ਱ᒦവ138੓࿟਱ਓ‫ޝ‬2205 ᎆ‫ܠ‬ǖ200021

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