CER Sep. 2015

SEPTEMBER 2015 VOL. 26, NO. 3 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

House of Mouse ඇ൰ᇏૂ ᇑዷ༶ࠅᇴჺ৯

• Jurassic World: awe and redemption in a world of chaos • Ꮔஆु๘হǖंឭ๘হ૛‫ڦ‬৤࿇ᇑ৸ຂ • Winning and losing • ࠣ๨‫ږۯ‬ᆖၚዐࡔ੔रࠅິබጨօ݃

2015ฤ9Ꮬఓ

EDITOR’S NOTE | 编者的话

人

民币中间价形成机制调整以来，因为资本外流导致国内的资金紧

SEPTEMBER 2015 VOL. 26, NO. 3 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2015ฤ9Ꮬఓ

张，进一步的货币宽松箭在弦上，而8月25日这个箭射了出来，

力度比预期还要大，在降准的同时降息。 此刻正是中国和全球股市新一轮下行的关键时刻，目前还很难判 断“双降”对于资本市场的作用，因为此轮下行并非完全由资金面变化 引起。

House of Mouse ඇ൰ᇏૂ! ᇑዷ༶ࠅᇴჺ৯

当前也不必过度解读下跌引发的危机，尤其是与亚洲金融危机类 比，亚洲大多数国家的国际收支状况较上世纪90年代有很大改善，且 制度更为健全，即使部分国家较为紧张，但目前仍未到最危险的时刻。 自从8月11日人民币贬值开始，市场一直存在降准的预期，但央行 主要采取逆回购和中期便利操作（MLF）等工具向市场投放流动性。 8月25日晚间，央行网站发布消息称，中国人民银行决定自8月26

• Jurassic World: awe and redemption in a world of chaos • Ꮔஆु๘হǖंឭ๘হ૛‫ڦ‬৤࿇ᇑ৸ຂ • Winning and losing • ࠣ๨‫ږۯ‬ᆖၚዐࡔ੔रࠅິබጨօ݃

日起，下调金融机构人民币贷款和存款基准利率。其中，金融机构一年 期贷款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至4.6%；一年期存款基准利率下调 0.25个百分点至1.75%。消息还称，自9月6日起下调金融机构人民币

Editor-at-large ߲‫ ཽۈ‬Graham Earnshaw

存款准备金率0.5个百分点同时额外降低部分金融机构的准备金率。 央行此次不仅降准同时还降息，政策力度超过市场预期。央行相

Co-Publisher ೊ੝߲‫ ཽۈ‬Alex Wong Shiu Chung

Executive Editor ᓍ‫ ܠ‬Graham Earnshaw Deputy Executive Editor ঃᓍ‫ ܠ‬Gao Fei Associate Editor ‫ ૷ܠ‬Rainy Chen, Skye Sun

关负责人表示，此次降准，主要是根据银行体系流动性变化，适当提供 长期流动性，以保持流动性合理充裕；降息的主要目的是继续发挥好基 准利率的引导作用，促进降低社会融资成本。 而行业专家认为，降息主要是为了缓解经济压力，降准除此之外

Art Editors ගၣ‫ ૷ܠ‬Jason Wong Sales Director ሾ၉ᔐପ Ralph Wang Account Managers ሾ၉ளಯ Jerry Cheng

的另一个目的则是为了对冲资金流出。认为这次货币政策出台应该是用 以应对多方面原因的，如流动性不足、经济不景气以及股市暴跌等等。 从调控实体经济的角度来看，降息降准的目的，显然是希望在通胀形势 和流动性创造机制变化的背景下，维持合理的实际利率和支持适度的货 币信贷增速。 值得注意的是，央行此次降准降息的同时还推出了利率市场化的

Distribution Manager खቲளಯ Seana Liu

举措。央行发布的消息称，放开一年期以上（不含一年期）定期存款的 Publisher ߲‫ۈ‬૦৩ China Economic Review Publishing Address ࢐ᒍ The Plaza Building, 102 Lee High Road

利率浮动上限，活期存款以及一年期以下定期存款的利率浮动上限不 变。利率市场化似乎由此又迈出了重要一步。

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I

n this issue of China Economic Review, we take a solid look at theme parks, the growth of the business, and the prospects

for their further growth in the massive China market. Disney is leading the charge with its massive Shanghai park due to come on line next year, but there are many other aspects of the theme park story. We also look at the changing landscape of online sales in China, and their impact on the offline retail economy. Plus a review of the economic power of Asian-Americans in the US economy given the unique cultural and social background issues that influence so many purchasing and investment decisions.

China Economic Review | September 2015

03

目录 CONTENT

10

16

Cover story House of mouse How Disneyland Shanghai will change Disney— and China

12

ቤ਋‫ފ‬

The House View

10 中国智能手机市场步入成熟期， 谁会是下一个新宠？

08 Bolstered behemoths

News Highlights

14 ௡ୡ

12 Newsbriefs

ॖෂ৺ူ Cover Story

22 米老鼠之家 26 全球娱乐与主题公园研究

15

16 House of Mouse

32 “趣 · 玩”文化进行时

ᓜष 31 互联网时代， 中国主题公园无限精彩

ᆪછ࢐ᅄ 38 侏罗纪世界 混沌世界里的敬畏与救赎 78 西藏 · 泽尼寺 759年的静默与守候

04

China Economic Review | September 2015

27

Interview 30 Infinite Wonders of China’s Theme Parks

Culture Map 34 Jurassic World: awe and redemption in a world of chaos 75 Tibet · Zenisi Monastery waiting in silence for 759 years

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目录 CONTENT

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Column

55 美国市场看涨亚裔消费者潜力

42 China is a rapidly growing market for online shopping

જᄌ 41 中国地产商都在海外做什么？

Q&A

66 微商朋友圈生意告急

48 Getting warm

68 股市动荡影响中国科技公司融资

68 Economy

步伐

50 Asia-American consumers are

69“互联网+”风口上的淘金术

showing bullish buying power

72 读懂消费者才是王道

62 Fishy business

74 市场化再进一步

64 Paper trail

央行“汇改新政”

ఘᒦਪ 81 成败之间

06

China Economic Review | September 2015

Look at China

74

80 Winning and losing

Host | 丝螌喎�

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The China Global Investment Summit 22-23 September 2015 ŕ Ž InterContinental Hangzhou, China

Co-hosted with the Province of Zhejiang and the City of Hangzhou, this Euromoney-produced Summit will focus on China’s new economy and the development of future industries.

Through interactive plenary discussions, Chinese and international business leaders will discuss the global business environment and what China’s new strategic policies including ‘One Belt, One Road’ and ‘Made in China 2025’ will mean for their companies – and yours.

This unique summit, which will be simultaneously interpreted in English and Chinese, will bring together over 600 by-invitation-only participants from over 30 countries to explore China’s increasing role in the global economy and the opportunities that it brings.

Key topics include: ŕ Ž ;OL )\ZPULZZ 6\[SVVR VU 0UUV]H[PVU HUK .SVIHSPZH[PVU ŕ Ž ;OL 0U[LYUL[ ,JVUVT` , JVTTLYJL HUK -PU[LJO ŕ Ž ;OL 5L_[ 0UK\Z[YPHS 9L]VS\[PVU! 0UK\Z[Y` =Z 4HKL PU *OPUH ŕ Ž -PUHUJPUN *OPULZL .YV^[O *VTWHUPLZ ŕ Ž -+0 HUK *OPULZL 6+0 PU *OPUHÂťZ Âş5L^ 5VYTHSÂť ŕ Ž 6WWVY[\UP[PLZ PU *OPUHÂťZ 7OHYTHJL\[PJHS HUK /LHS[OJHYL 0UK\Z[Y` ŕ Ž *VTIH[PUN *SPTH[L *OHUNL HUK :\Z[HPUHISL +L]LSVWTLU[ About Zhejiang 2UV^U HZ ¸7YV]PUJL VM ZPSR HUK [LHš HUK ¸3HUK VM MPZO HUK YPJLš AOLQPHUN PZ OVTL [V >\ @\L J\S[\YL HUK 1PHUNUHU ZV\[O VM [OL @HUN[aL 9P]LY J\S[\YL ;OL WYV]PUJLÂťZ .+7 OHZ ILLU NYV^PUN H[ HU H]LYHNL YH[L VM

HUU\HSS` ZPUJL [OL YLMVYT HUK VWLUPUN \W HUK YLHJOLK [YPSSPVU 94) `\HU PU ;OL WLY JHWP[H PUJVTL VM \YIHU HUK Y\YHS YLZPKLU[Z OHZ YHURLK [OL MPYZ[ PU *OPUH MVY THU` JVUZLJ\[P]L `LHYZ >P[O VM [OL SHUK HYLH HUK VM [OL WVW\SH[PVU VM *OPUH AOLQPHUN OHZ JVU[YPI\[LK TVYL [OHU VM [OL JV\U[Y`ÂťZ LJVUVT` About Hangzhou /HUNaOV\ [OL JHWP[HS JP[` VM AOLQPHUN WYV]PUJL PZ H[ [OL OLHY[ VM [OL MHZ[ JOHUNPUN *OPULZL LJVUVT` ;OHURZ [V P[Z Z[YH[LNPJ SVJH[PVU PU [OL @HUN[aL 9P]LY +LS[H HUK KL]LSVWTLU[ Z[YH[LN` VM [OL NV]LYUTLU[ /HUNaOV\ OHZ MSV\YPZOLK [V ILJVTL H SLHKLY PU THU` VM [OL JV\U[Y`ÂťZ RL` PUK\Z[YPLZ -VY TVYL PUMVYTH[PVU VY [V YLNPZ[LY WSLHZL ]PZP[ ^^^ L\YVTVUL`JVUMLYLUJLZ JVT OHUNaOV\ VY L THPS \Z H[ rsvp@euromoneyasia.com.

Organisers | 承螌喎�

Official Hotel | ĺŽ˜ć–šé…’ĺş—

Supporting Organisations | ć”ŻćŒ ĺ–Žä˝?

THE HOUSE VIE W

Bolstered behemoths China’s latest SOE reforms make firms bigger, not necessarily better

W

hen reports first began circulating in 2012 that Xi Jinping’s new administration was planning reforms to China’s bloated SOE sector, many international observers hoped it would mean an end to the old model of unprofitable policy enforcers whose chief concern was to do Beijing’s bidding. After all, the market was now supposed to play a “decisive role” in China’s new economy.

Then, after precious little progress for more than a year, hopes sprang anew as word came of plans for consolidation: Major state firms were to be pared down from about 120 to roughly 40. But in the drive to consolidate China’s central government-run SOEs, all indicators to date suggest the chief goal will be just that: Consolidation.

It appears this latest policy push to shake up the state-owned sector does not represent a fundamental shift in how China’s government-run firms are structured and run, beyond possibly making them easier for top leaders to corral. But fewer firms overall means fewer divisions of the banking system’s money pool. Cheap financing from Beijing flowing to a smaller group of corporate colossi could give state firms an edge over competitors who do have to worry about their bottom lines. Whether this ultimately makes them more profitable is another matter.

“It’s just consolidation—there’s not too many signs of genuine reforms,” said Victor Shih, associate profes-

08

China Economic Review | September 2015

sor at the University of California in San Diego and longtime observer of China’s financial system. Even after all the changes proposed so far, Shih said, “they’re still SOEs.”

Not for profit “These are not profit-maximizing organizations,” Shih said. This fundamental feature of state firms raises questions about the official reasoning behind the merger of China’s two stateowned rail companies. Officials have state these firms had been undercutting each other in bids abroad, undermining one another’s profitability and harming the state in a cycle economists call “ruinous competition”.

“The whole argument is ridiculous,” Shih said. “The reason there was

ruinous competition between those two companies is because they had a soft budget constraint, and they could borrow as much money as they wanted at very low interest rates from the banks.”

Such perverse incentives seem of little concern to top leaders, who have stated in policy and major meetings that, in effect, the cure for what ails China’s state enterprises is more state and less enterprise. While reforms had been on the cards since the start of Xi’s term, they were only laid out on the table this year. According to state media reports, Xi told a meeting of the party’s discipline commission in January that party control of SOEs should be intensified, with supervision of company bosses strengthened.

THE HOUSE VIE W

The move fit in with a general push to centralize power that had already extended to various governing bodies through ‘small leading groups’ headed

by Xi and his deputies. Robert Blohm said Xi’s approach to SOEs differed from the technocratic, hands-off style of his predecessor Hu Jintao primarily in prioritizing control. China’s top leader most recently drove this home in a speech this week calling for stronger party leadership at government-run firms during a politburo meeting at which unspecified documents on SOE reform were approved.

Blohm said that if SOEs are supposed to act as tools to help the government realize an agenda of international preeminence, “in that role you need scale.” Hence the mergers. If that means the resulting firms operate even more like arms of the government, so be it.

“For privatization of public finance, the government seems to prefer the publicprivate partnership route.”

That plank of the program came into view in May, when the National Development and Reform Commission invited private investors to help build, fund and operate a list of 1,043 projects worth a total of RMB1.97 trillion (US$317.75 billion) throughout China.

These public-private partnerships improve government firms’ balance sheets by offloading potential debt onto private sector companies in exchange for project rights. They also help fund projects that new restrictions on offbalance sheet borrowing might otherwise preclude.

Uncheckable growth This is all accomplished without any

of the nettlesome privatization measures that might actually make SOEs less beholden to anyone outside their shareholders in the party, such as bringing in sizable blocs of private and foreign shareholders. That might hold the danger of seats on boards of directors filled by private sector, profitminded investors who could demand things like the right to hire and fire top executives.

In fact, abhorrence of profit-making projects has extended even to one of China’s most successful financial endeavors, the China Development Bank. The global investor was called upon early this year to reduce its more profitable investment expansions and revert to its proper role as a policy bank first and foremost. Meanwhile, a drive to sever SOE executive pay levels from company profits further encourages those in charge at SOEs to yield even nominal control to the party in all things.

To top it off, this isn’t the first time attempts have been made to pare down SOE numbers. A recent Brookings Institution report found that while SOE numbers had actually dropped from 2004 to 2010, the number of SOE subsidiaries had skyrocketed. Shih, at UC San Diego, said that conglomeration might help avert ruinous competition in some cases, but “the tendency to borrow money and expand as much as possible will still be there.”

For example, now that rail firms CSR and CNR have merged, the new entity can go to a bank, pull out the latest five year plan and point to sections on rail development both in China and abroad to justify loans without any worry of another firm trying to under-

cut it. Central government-owned SOEs in particular are privileged with access to cheap financing and the ability to sell products at a loss.

“As a result they do become very competitive in a sense: As long as the Chinese banking system can give them limitless money, and because don’t care about act bottom line, they’re going to be very competitive [abroad] because they can undercut competitors who do have to worry about their bottom line,” Shish said.

Yet even if enormous, government funds are ultimately limited, and even a centralized conglomerate can conceivably fall—perhaps harder and faster than smaller, unconsolidated counterparts. According to a report from finance news magazine Caixin, at end of 2014 state steel trader Sinosteel and its 72 subsidiaries were late on payments totaling RMB75 billion to 80-odd banks both foreign and domestic.

Nor does expansion abroad guarantee success, with much of Sinosteel’s current woes stemming from its acquisition of Australian iron ore mining outfit Midwest Corp. According to domestic media, when SASAC asked Chinese banks to cancel Sinosteel’s debts, they refused. “You wouldn’t have seen that five years ago,” Shih said. “There’s no longer endless credit.”

The much-maligned SOE structure and plans for re-structuring seem to be going nowhere, at least for now. But logic suggests that economic realities can only be staved off for so long before the firms have nowhere left to turn when the government credit tap finally runs dry.

China Economic Review | September 2015

09

新观察

中国智能手机市场步入成 熟期，谁会是下一个新宠？ 文章来源：尼尔森市场研究

在

这个多屏时代，几乎人人都拥有一

根据尼尔森中国消费者信心指数报告

同时，报告显示，尽管一线城市智能

台以上的智能设备，设备间的融合

以及尼尔森《智能机用户研究报告》，预

手机的渗透率已经高达90％以上，且从去

性和可替代性受到挑战。智能机市场未来

计2015年末中国用户智能手机渗透率将达

年全年来看渗透率持平（94％），但仍有

发展的关键何在？大屏手机时代，平板电

到73%，比2014年同期增加11个百分点，

55%一线城市消费者在2014年底表示将在

脑的市场前景如何？异军突起的可穿戴设

相比较2013年（较2012年增长22%）和

未来12个月购买智能机，这些需求主要源

备的市场究竟又有多大？尼尔森最新公布

2014年（较2013年增长15%），这一数

自设备的更新换代。

的《2015年智能设备用户研究报告》针对

字出现明显下滑，标志着中国智能机市场

中国智能机市场和全球智能机动态，带你

逐步由快速增长期步入成熟期。

一一解读中国智能设备市场未来发展的新 观点。

中国智能手机成熟期来临 消费升级与市场动力转移

10

China Economic Review | September 2015

尼尔森中国总经理乐是德（Oliver Rust）指出：“智能机市场将迎来消费升

此外，智能机在中国城镇的渗透率

级—预计在出货结构上，2015年中高端

已经非常接近或超过90%，意味着在这

的份额会逐步提升。抓住消费升级机遇的

一时期，数量的增加或将不再是主流的趋

厂商将获得快速发展。”，“且2015年，

势，消费者将更注重追求智能机的质量和

智能机的主要新增市场将会来自低线城

性能。

市、农村，中老年、低收入和体力劳动人

新观察

群。根据不同消费群体的需求特质，制定 开发这些低消费力的人群有效策略，将是

新科技设备的接力赛开始 《第一财经周刊》消费大数据预测未来

把机会变为市场增长点的关键。”

平板电脑第二波增长 取决于个性化制定能否成功 根据尼尔森报告数据，截至2014年 底，中国市场平板电脑渗透率达到30%，

在第一财经和阿里巴巴发布的《中国个性化消费大数据报告》中显示，有不少数 据是关于家电以及科技消费品的。我们可以看到90年代的空调、电脑、录像机， 再到新世纪以来的手机、电脑、汽车，一种商品成为消费热点之后，又逐渐淡出 消费热点，形成排浪式的变化。在报告中，不少智能科技产品的销售增幅巨大。

接近笔记本电脑35%的水平。“由于平

“所有的消费市场都是如此，既然有新兴市场必定也存在成熟市场。”英敏

板第一拨高速增长的主要动力来自于替代

特生活方式高级研究分析师顾菁表示，与那些新兴的科技产品相比，传统大家电

笔记本电脑的娱乐需求，因此当其渗透率

市场在未来肯定增速放缓。

接近笔记本时，是否意味着其高速增长

根据中国家用电器协会数据，今年一季度电冰箱和空调累计产量同比负增

的阶段已经过去？而下一阶段，只有能精

长，洗衣机同比增长接近10%，一季度电冰箱、洗衣机销售同比微增。另外，我

细化地满足不同特殊场景下的用户个性化

们的数据也显示，消费者对大件家电的采购趋势也开始从此前的高速增长转向平

体验需求，才有可能迎来下一波的高速增

稳增长。

长。”乐是德指出。

虽然如此，但传统家电行业为了适应时代发展在不断升级换代。以电视为

消费者对智能手表/手环的购买意愿明

例，2015年开始，腾讯、百度等互联网行业龙头加大在智能电视领域布局。腾讯

显增长，而对于平板电脑的购买意愿没有

先后与康佳、海信等电视龙头在电视游戏上展开合作。同时，鹏博士作为通讯运

明显变化

营商也加入智能电视供应商大军，零利润提供电视硬件、掘金运营、视频等附加 服务价值。传统彩电制造业、互联网企业、通讯运营以及传媒企业，纷纷加入智

可穿戴设备接力智能机 这类产品未来大有可为 根据尼尔森调查显示，2014年，对于 30岁以下的年轻人以及学生群体对智能手 表或手环的购买意愿分别有两个百分点和 六个百分点的提升。

能电视终端提供。 中国银河证券的一位分析师称，这将加快智能电视的普及和大众习惯的养 成，硬件普及后将使视频、游戏、在线教育等新服务走进千家万户，带来电视产 业链全新的盈利模式。 人们消费水平的提高也体现在他们愿意为新科技设备买单。 顾菁表示，移动设备尤其如智能手机和平板电脑已经快速占领科技市场，并

从个人电子消费品类来看，平板电脑

成为城市消费者们生活不可或缺的物品。“在过去五年，智能手机的市场量复合

渗透率已经接近笔记本电脑的水平，而智

年均增长率为65.9%，平板电脑则为157.3%。79%的平板电脑拥有者主要以娱

能手表/手环仍有较大空间。

乐为目的，电子游戏等或会更热。”

乐是德认为如果说智能机是必须品，

而《中国个性化消费大数据报告》显示，2014年开始最爆款的单品无疑是

智能穿戴设备则是极具个人色彩的非必需

智能机器人和可穿戴设备。仅以扫地机器人为例，在阿里大数据上，这一产品

品，故可穿戴设备的未来市场潜力还有待

在2014年的销售额同比增速达到159.02%，增速排名在全部品类商品中排名第

进一步挖掘，例如，它可以覆盖智能机无

26位。

法覆盖的细分人群，如老年人和儿童，因

“得益于网络环境改善带来的连结性能大幅度提升，智能可穿戴设备原有的

为家长不会给一个7岁的儿童购买智能机，

商务健康功能被极大程度的释放，并激发开发者的极大创意,”尼尔森中国总经理

却完全可能为他穿戴上一块智能手表。

乐是德(Oliver Rust)说，“因其可覆盖智能机无法覆盖的细分人群，比如老年人

据尼尔森阿里巴巴赚金石平台监测显 示，消费者真正最关心的是智能设备的外

和儿童，譬如家长不会给一个7岁的儿童购买智能机，但完全可能为他穿戴上一 块智能手表。”

观设计（18%）和健康功能（34%），而

“可穿戴设备的未来市场潜力还有待进一步挖掘。如果说智能机是必须品，

电池续航能力的重要性则没有出现在前10

智能穿戴设备则是极具个人色彩的非必需品。如何让消费者买单，需要我们敏锐

位的关注点之内。因此，尼尔森相信，在

的捕捉到消费者的个性化需求”，他强调。

外观设计和健康功能给消费者带来卓越体 验的智能穿戴产品，将会在这个市场创造

乐是德相信，在外观设计和健康功能给消费者带来卓越体验的智能穿戴产 品，将会在这个市场创造新一波的销售增长。

新一波的销售增长。

China Economic Review | September 2015

11

NEWS ROUNDUP

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS China’s international payment system to be limited solely to trade deals The China International Payment System set to launch this year has become a scaled-back version of its former self that will only be used for cross-border yuan-denominated trade deals, rather than also including capital transactions, Reuters reported, citing two unnamed sources. The move could delay billions of dollars worth of transactions that would have gone through the system, which will now offer at most a network for settling yuan-based trade-related deals complimentary to a current patchwork of Chinese clearing banks dotted around the world.

Close to 90% of China’s 668mn Internet users get online via smartphone China’s Internet users rose to 668 million as of the end of June, pushing internet penetration for the country to 48.8% as the proportion of those using smartphones rose to 88.9%,

South China Morning Post reported, citing a new report by the official China Internet Network Information Center.

The number of people using desktops and laptops to go online fell to 42.5% and 68.4%, respectively. Tablets fell to 33.7%, and are expected to drop further as large-screen smartphones proliferate.

Mobile online services saw corresponding gains, as mobile payment users grew to 276 million and mobile e-commerce users hit 270 million.

Wal-Mart buys remainder of online retailer Yihaodian after co-founders’ departure Wal-Mart has purchased the remaining 49% of Chinese e-commerce venture Yihaodian, gaining full ownership of the online retailer after its co-founders announced their departure earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported. Wal-Mart acquired the remaining Yihaodian shares from financial services group Ping An of China and the cofounders, former Chairman Yu Gang and former CEO Lui Junling. Wal-Mart

is eager to link the online retail outfit with its more than 400 brick-andmortar Chinese stores, where traffic has fallen over the past three years and was down 8.9% last quarter.

China CO2 pledge entails massive build-out of hydropower dams Beijing’s plans to cut CO2 emissions will commit it to developing a round of ecologically destructive hydropower dams in China’s southwest, central and western provinces, The Financial Times reported, citing analysts and advocates.

“By the end of the 13th five-year plan the rivers in southwest China will be basically gone,” said Stephanie JensenCormier, spokesperson for NGO International Rivers, referring to China’s policy blueprint to 2020. Installed hydropower capacity is set to rise to 350 gigawatts by 2020, an increase of 60 GW, plus a possible additional 70GW in storage capacity at reservoirs created to mitigate seasonal fluctuations in power generation caused by changing river flow.

Rare earths still plentiful despite crackdown on smuggling operations Chinese authorities are struggling to break up an illegal supply chain for rare earth metals, 40,000 tons of which were smuggled out of the country last year, Reuters reported, citing industry estimates. The smuggled minerals, which far exceed the 28,000 tons of officially recorded exports, are squeezing over-

12

China Economic Review | September 2015

NEWS ROUNDUP

seas producers like America’s Molycorp and Australia’s Lynas Corp, whose business plans were built on China’s efforts to crack down on illegal production and restrict domestic supply. Many hoped removing quotas and tariffs this year would end arbitrage opportunities, but with Beijing imposing production caps and many miners operating well below full capacity, the incentive to produce remains.

AIIB launches with 50 member states and China holding veto power Fifty countries ultimately signed the articles of incorporation for the Beijingbacked Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a list that was short of prospective

members Denmark, Kuwait, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and the Philippines, The Wall Street Journal reported. Delegates from all but the last - which recently produced a statefunded documentary on its ownership of territory in the South China Sea that China also claims - cited procedural constraints at home, and said they would likely sign within a few months.

As the largest shareholder China will hold 26.06% of the bank’s votes, giving it an effective veto over major decisions, according to state media.

Crackdown on illegal meat drives smugglers to more dangerous measures A crackdown on meat smuggling by

Beijing appears to be driving smugglers at China’s borders with Hong Kong and Vietnam to take greater risks with food safety, Reuters reported, citing interviews with smugglers, traders, customs agents and anti-smuggling officials. Seizures of smuggled meat have jumped nearly threefold this year and spurred headlines alarming to even Chinese consumers already wearily familiar with food scandals. Greater scrutiny means customs agents often no longer turn a blind eye to refrigerated trucks entering China, forcing smugglers to adopt more desperate and dangerous tactics. “People are bringing [meat] over one box at a time, just like ants moving home,” said a customs official in the city of Changsha.

China Economic Review | September 2015

13

聚焦

中经评论聚焦

中国新的国际支付系统将对商业 交易有所限制

用台式机和笔记本电脑上网的用户比例分

年经历了客流量的下跌，上一季度跌幅为

别下降至42.5%和68.4%。平板电脑的用

8.9%。

路透社报道，据两条匿名消息透露，中国

户比例降至33.7%，由于大屏智能手机的

将于今年发布的国际支付系统相较之前版

普及，这一数字还将继续下跌。随着移动

本，功能遭到削减，只能用于以人民币为

支付用户人数升至两亿七千六百万、移动

中国关税的取消仍无法拯救韩国 的泡菜产业

基准的跨境商业交易，不再包括资本交

电子商务用户升至两亿七千万，移动在线

纽约时报报道，今年6月刚签署的自由贸易

易。这项举动将阻碍本可通过该系统进行

服务行业也获得了相应的收益。

协定中，北京承诺取消韩国泡菜关税，但

的价值数亿美元的交易。目前中国票据交 换银行布及全球，将为以人民币为基准的 相关贸易提供平台。

14

这一规定可能依旧无法拯救产量日趋下降

一号店联合创始人离职后， 沃尔玛全资收购一号店股权

的泡菜产业。在这之前，泡菜作为发酵食 品，含有大量细菌，而中国对于进口腌制

据华尔街日报报道，中国电子商务企业一

品的细菌含量拥有严格规定，因此政府禁

近九成中国网民通过智能手机 上网

号店创始人宣布退出后，沃尔玛成功收购

止韩国泡菜产品的进口。韩国对华泡菜出

一号店剩余的49%股权，实现了完全控

口产业之后迅速衰退，转而进行原材料卷

据南华早报报道，一份来自中国互联网络

股。沃尔玛分别从中国平安保险公司、一

心菜的进出口。

信息中心的官方报告指出，中国互联网使

号店联合创始人、前任董事长于刚及前任

用者总人数在6月底达到六亿六千八百万，

CEO刘峻岭处购得股权。沃尔玛希望将一

将全国互联网普及率推升至48.8%，智能

号店的在线零售网络和其位于中国的400

肉类走私打击力度大大增强， 导致走私行为走向极端

手机的普及率也达到了88.9%。其中，使

余家实体商店相连。其实体商店在过去三

据路透社相关采访报道，北京对肉类走私

China Economic Review | September 2015

聚焦

的严厉打击导致中缅边境和香港肉类走私 泛滥，食品安全存在风险。没收走私肉类 力度于今年加强三倍，警醒已对食品安全 丑闻疲于应对的中国消费者再次重视。更 严厉的审查意味着海关将对进入中国的冷 藏货车更为谨慎，也令走私团伙铤而走险 采取更极端的措施。据长沙一海关人员透 露，有人员采用蚂蚁搬家的手法，将肉类 一盒一盒分次运输。

严厉打击走私行为并未影响稀土 矿产量 据路透社报道，中国当局正努力击破稀土 金属非法供应链。业内人士预测，去年约 有4万吨稀土金属通过这一渠道被走私出 国，远远超过官方2万8千吨的出口量。美 国Molycorp和澳大利亚Lynas Corp等海 外稀土生产商在华的商业计划建立在中国 努力打击非法生产和限制国内供应的基础 上。许多人期待今年取消配额和关税的规 定将终止套现机会，但随着北京加强产量 以及许多矿厂生产运营远低于满负荷量， 生产积极性依旧存在。

亚洲基础设施投资银行在50名成 员国支持下成立，中国持有一票 否决权 华尔街日报报道，50个国家正式签署《亚 洲基础设施投资银行协定》，除50名成员 国和就南中国海归属问题与中国产生争端 的菲律宾外，还有包括丹麦、科威特、马

个五年计划之时，中国西南地区的河流将

人次。东亚和北亚中国游客数量则在今年

来西亚、波兰、南非和泰国在内的意向创

基本消失。到2020年，水利发电量将升至

第一季度增加38%，达到330万人次。

始成员国表示将在今后几个月内签署这一

350千兆瓦，达到60千兆瓦的增幅，另外

协定。据官方媒体披露，中国作为最大股

还有70千兆瓦的水库存储电量以缓和因改

东，持有26.06%的投票权，对重大决策

变河道水流而引起的发电量季节性波动。

中国发展对于全球扶贫事业做出 巨大贡献 纽约时报援引联合国相关报道，过去15年

拥有有效否决权。

中国游客东南亚游热度下降

全球极端贫困遭到大幅削减，很大程度得

中国二氧化碳治理指向大力建造 水电站

2014年度中国出境旅游以28%的增幅达到

益于中国经济发展。联合国于15年前制定

1650亿美元。除泰国略有回升外，东南亚

的千禧年发展目标旨在改善全球贫困人士

据金融时报报道，北京减少二氧化碳排放

国家如马来西亚和印度尼西亚等国家，由

生活，最终评价该计划成功，然而评论家

量的计划包括在中国西南和中西部省市大

于航空安全和政治因素等考量，中国游客

认为单单制定全球目标并非有益。耶鲁大

力建造具有生态破坏性的水电站。国际河

数量在今年第一季度同比由190万跌至150

学经济学教授Dean Karlan表示，不同国

流组织发言人Stephanie Jensen-Corm-

万人次。2013年和2014年两年中，国家

家不可相提并论，整体目标并不能指明明

ier就中国2020年政策蓝图表示，在第13

年平均游客数量也从640万人次跌至620万

确的方向。

China Economic Review | September 2015

15

COVER STORY

House of Mouse How Disneyland Shanghai will change Disney—and China

16

China Economic Review | September 2015

COVER STORY

I

n 2006 the Spring Festival holiday in Hong Kong began on a Saturday and ended on a Tuesday. The mobs hit the magic kingdom on Wednesday.

It turned out that Disney had sold special tickets to its Hong Kong park that weren’t valid on certain days, including Spring Festival. But in Hong Kong that didn’t include the three extra days allowed for the holiday on the mainland. Soon tour agencies were bussing in more Chinese visitors than the park’s operators could possibly handle.

After lackluster performance following its launch, the 30,000 person-capacity park was suddenly offering refunds as it turned back tourists at the gates.

“It was a major disaster,” said Markus Schuckert, an assistant professor at Hong Kong Polytechnic University’s School of Hotel & Tourism Management. “They had valid tickets, they should’ve been able to enter the park.”

The upshot was all that unmet demand, tantalizingly close across the Hong Kong-mainland border. Nine years later Disney is nearly in a position to take advantage of it with Shanghai Disneyland scheduled to launch in the spring of 2016.

Long in the coming it may be, but there are few safer bets than Shanghai Disneyland. There are far more farreaching ramifications to the Disney kingdom’s mainland debut than the castles of cash it will bring in. For Disney the new park will be a promotional tool as well as intelligence source, both a bastion and beachhead for the com-

pany’s intellectual property. For China it represents a dynamic new rival for existing sophisticated park operators, imminent apocalypse for low-quality competitors, and a new, higher standard to which the country’s burgeoning theme park industry will inevitably be held.

But yes: Shanghai Disneyland will also almost certainly make an obscene amount of money—though thanks to advancements by local rivals, it’s unlikely to be the only one.

Big figures There is no denying Disney’s dominance of the global theme park industry, and the latest TEA/AECOM 2014 Global Attractions Attendance Report attests to the enduring growth in foot traffic at practically all of its locations (save for Disneyland Paris, where visitor numbers fell 4.7%).

Walt Disney Attractions easily topped the latest industry with attendance totaling over 134 million visitors in 2014. Visitors to Disney’s parks were more than double those of runner-up Merlin Entertainments Group and well over triple the attendance of Universal Parks and Resorts in third place. But China’s theme park industry is shaping up in its own right, adding urgency to Disney’s debut on the mainland.

China’s OCT Parks group came in fourth place at almost 28 million visitors, and the top ten for 2014 saw two more Chinese groups’ debut: Ninth place had Chimelong Group with

China Economic Review | September 2015

17

COVER STORY

18.6 million visitors and Songcheng Worldwide came in tenth with 14.5 million—respectively up almost 60% and over 103% from 2013. (Chimelong’s successful launch of its Ocean Kingdom park in Zhuhai drew big numbers and a prestigious industry award.) These groups actually managed to squeeze two other Chinese groups off the list from 2013: Fantawild and Haichang.

Nine of the top ten theme parks in the world were Disney’s in 2014, though two mainland parks made the top 25 and Hong Kong Disneyland came in fifteenth. But 13 of Asia’s top theme parks were located in greater China in 2014, the top two of them in Hong Kong: Ocean Park in fourth and Hong Kong Disneyland in sixth. Chinese tourists drove growth around the region as well. Lotte World in South Korea saw a big increase in attendance almost entirely thanks to mainland Chinese visitors.

Chimelong’s Ocean Kingdom was open for 11 months last year but is already at #10 of Asia’s top 20 list and is rapidly expanding its hotel capacity. Adult admission of RMB350 is 80% higher than the competitive market price of RMB200, according to AECOM, indicating that people are willing to pay for quality. Disney is counting on it.

Changing Disney “Disney obviously gains access and a share of huge, growing, rising income market,” said Mark Soskin, associate professor economics at the University of Central Florida’s College of Business. Sorkin, who has co-authored a number of papers on Disney’s growth and business model, said the park had

18

China Economic Review | September 2015

much as it does in Tokyo’s Disneyland.

That would mean more merchandise in more Chinese homes, even those who don’t visit the park.

Sorkin added that other Disney parks would likely benefit from the new one as well. “Each new park spreads the cost (and thus lowering Average Cost) of developing and installing new rides and park attractions,” he said.

Changing China

effectively been pre-sold with little marketing thanks to Disney’s global recognition.

The reverse is true as well: Shanghai Disneyland will provide the company with a new venue to promote its intellectual property. Already it has announced that the new park will feature an area dedicated to the Star Wars franchise, which currently carries little of the cache of Mickey or Marvel in China.

The Shanghai location will also provide a valuable intelligence gathering point for Disney as it tries to figure out what will play best to mainland audiences. But the branding won’t stop at the park gates.

“The Chinese [tourist] mentality is very much for shopping and merchandise and then giving gifts back home,” Schuckert said. He suggested that the proclivity to bring back souvenirs would play an important role in Disney’s strategy for the new park,

For China the most immediate impact of Shanghai Disneyland will be on its domestic theme park industry. While up and comers like Chimalong have raised the bar, says Schuckert, “Disney will be more advanced because Disney always operates on the highest standards possible.” That will play a role in educating consumers about what a theme park can be.

“It will really impact the industry. The Chinese tourists will experience better parks and they will know where to go and where not to go in the future,” Schuckert said. He suggested that while such top-tier competition as Chimelong, Songcheng, Fantawild and Haicheng would survive, the outlook could be grim for lower-tier parks without a strong theme or quality attractions.

“Maybe we’ll see a shakeout of theme parks, especially in the area around Shanghai,” he said. That could encourage blowback from those affected. Donald Keane, Professor of Chinese Media at Curtin University, said that for many nationalists in China, said that not everyone would appreciate Disney’s inroads on the mainland.

“Mickey Mouse is a potent symbol of capitalism, creativity, the US and all

COVER STORY

that goes with that,” Keane said. “Disney represents… a kind of archetypal Western company.”

But market forces could play to the company’s advantage, and to the industry’s. Where many feared that Hong Kong Disneyland’s debut would marginalize the territory’s established park, Ocean Kingdom, both parks now do good business and have benefitted, from healthy competition, Schuckert said.

Sorkin agreed that cultural issues were critical, and said Disney had learned to be flexible without compromising or diluting its brand reputation.

But the new park wasn’t without its risks, he said.

“Even a subtle error can offend local sensibilities that virally explodes in this age of social media into an

international embarrassment that takes months or years to reverse,” he said.

“Rival parks and tourism attractions may have an interest in blowing such incidents into an edge via advertising; but just as often, surrounding, parasitical business and entire regional economies have a strong fiscal incentive to protect and defend Disney.”

There is likely plenty of local interest in Shanghai Disneyland’s success.

At 963 acres the new park is much larger than its Hong Kong forbear, and Disney owns only 43% of the 963-acre park, though it gets 70% of the management company running the resort.

The rest of those assets belong to a consortium of state-owned companies known as Shanghai Shendi Group, putting the local government firmly on Disney’s side.

The park also received an enormous cash injection from the Agricultural Bank of China in 2014 when Disney decided to delay the park’s opening to avoid the underwhelming opening performance of Hong Kong Disneyland, which early visitors complained felt half-finished.

Keane said the Disney’s expanded presence on the mainland also increased the likelihood of a DisneyChina coproduction in the near future, echoing what is happening elsewhere in the film industry.

“This kind of thing will make a killing in the theaters and give the local industry some credibility,” Keane said.

That would fill everyone’s coffers, and encourage more expansion. “Disney after all is about expanding empire,” he said.

China Economic Review | September 2015

19

封面故事

米老鼠之家 上海迪斯尼乐园的开业意味着对迪斯尼集团和中国带来双重影响

22

China Economic Review | September 2015

封面故事

2

006年的农历春节，香港人的四天假

斯尼旗下各知识产权的阵地，有利于今后

期从星期六起，止于星期二。就在春

的推广和宣传。于中国而言，为大陆市场

节假期结束后的第一天—这个普通的星

现存的乐园运营企业增加了一个极具竞争

期三，却有大量游客纷纷涌向香港迪斯尼

力的新对手，为低质量的竞争者带来极大

乐园。

冲击，也将为国内整个主题乐园产业设立

出现这一情况的原因主要在于香港

更高的标准。

迪斯尼乐园所销售的门票十分特殊，包括

诚然，目前我们几乎可以肯定上海迪

春节在内的特定节假日是不可使用的。然

斯尼乐园的开业势必将带来经济上的巨大

而大陆的春节假期长达七天，因而较之香

收益。然而本土竞争者们亦不甘示弱，在

港多出的三天假期并不受限于门票的特殊

行业内已颇有发展。因此上海迪斯尼乐园

规定。于是旅行社们充分利于这一规定，

若想一家独大，也绝非易事。

在这一时段组织大陆游客赴港游迪斯尼乐 园，以至于超出了乐园的最大负担。本可 容纳3万人的迪斯尼乐园不得不将超出承受 范围的游客拒之门外，为其安排退款。 这一情况在香港理工大学酒店旅游管

大数据 迪斯尼集团在全球主题公园产业的领 先地位毋庸置疑。根据美国主题娱乐行业 协会TEA和艾肯国际咨询公司AECOM联

Schuckert看来，

合发布的2014年全球主题景点入场人数报

无疑是迪斯尼乐园的重大失策。既然游客

告显示，除巴黎迪斯尼乐园4.7%的下降

持有的是有效门票，便没有理由被园方拒

外，全球各地的迪斯尼乐园都拥有在客流

之门外。

量方面的持续增长。

理专业副教授Markus

这一局面归根结底源自大陆消费者未

华特迪斯尼公司在2014年度轻而易

被满足的市场需求。因此，9年后的今天，

举吸引了总计超过13.4亿的游客，登顶

迪斯尼集团希望利用将于2016年春季开业

行业之首，领先排名第二位的默林娱乐集

的上海迪斯尼乐园弥补这一问题。

团两倍、排名第三位的环球影城三倍有

尽管上海迪斯尼乐园尚未开业，但几

余。然而，中国的主题乐园产业正在凭借

乎已经可以预计其未来的成功。迪斯尼乐

自身能力不断发展壮大，这也为迪斯尼乐

园在中国大陆的初次登场，除了带来非凡

园在中国大陆的初次登场增添了不小的紧

的经济利益之外，还具有其他更为深远的

迫感。

意义。于迪斯尼而言，新的乐园将成为迪

中国的华侨城集团位列榜单第四

China Economic Review | September 2015

23

封面故事

愿意出更高价以换取更高质量的体验和服 务。迪斯尼也认可和指望这一消费心理。

于迪斯尼之变 迪斯尼发展和商业模式研究学者、 任职于中佛罗里达大学商学院的经济学副 教授Mark Soskin认为，迪斯尼无疑将从 中国这一巨大而快速发展的市场中获利匪 浅，主要得益于迪斯尼在全球极高的认可 度和知名度。 反之亦然，上海迪斯尼乐园将为迪斯 尼公司提供一个推广其旗下知识产权的新 平台。根据官方公布的消息来看，上海迪 斯尼乐园中将有一块以“星球大战”为主 题的区域，尽管星球大战在中国的大众知 名度不及米老鼠或漫威英雄系列，但随着 乐园的开业，势必将有所改善。 而位于上海的迪斯尼乐园也将成为迪 斯尼深入了解中国消费者的契机，从而更 好地掌握中国大陆观众的喜好。然而，品 牌推广并不单单止步于乐园。 Markus Schuckert指出，中国游 客的心态常常以购物为主导，习惯购买在 旅途结束后返回家中时能够赠送亲友的礼 品。这种购买纪念品的倾向将会成为迪斯 尼进军中国市场的重要战略，正如日本东 京迪斯尼乐园一样。这也意味着无论游玩 与否，许多中国家庭中将会出现迪斯尼的 产品。 此外，Mark Soskin补充道，位于全 球各地的迪斯尼乐园也极有可能受益于新 开业的上海迪斯尼乐园。这其中的原因在 于，每家新开业的乐园都将与全球其他兄

24

位，共吸引2.8亿人次入园。此外，进

15位。亚洲榜单中的13家主题乐园位于中

弟乐园共同承担新项目和新景点的开发和

入榜单前十的中国企业还有长隆集团和宋

国，其中2家位于香港，分别是排名第4位

安装成本。

城集团，分别凭借1.86亿人次和1.45亿人

的海洋公园和排名第6位的香港迪斯尼乐

次位列第九和第十，相比2013年，增幅约

园。中国游客对周边国家旅游业的拉动力

为60%和103%。长隆集团在珠海建立的

也不容忽视。韩国乐天世界客流量的攀升

长隆海洋王国获得了商业和口碑的双赢，

很大程度上便得益于中国大陆游客。

于中国之变 对于中国而言，上海迪斯尼乐园的开 业，所带来的最直接的影响莫过于对本土

也获得了业内权威奖项的肯定。这些集团

长隆海洋王国自去年开业仅11个月以

主题乐园产业的冲击。Markus Schuckert

将2013年上榜的深圳华强文化科技集团和

来，便已经位列亚洲榜单的第10位，并且

表示，行业的后来者们，如长隆集团等在

海昌海洋公园控股有限公司挤出了榜单。

仍在不断扩大其酒店的容纳数量。该乐园

内，如今的发展都已经更上一层楼，而迪

2014年度全球前十大主题乐园中，

的成人票定价为350元，这一价格要远远高

斯尼乐园所使用的设备和技术是行业内公

迪斯尼集团独占9个席位。两家大陆主题乐

于市场普遍认可的200元票价。艾肯国际

认的最高标准。这也能教育中国消费者，

园位居前25位，香港迪斯尼乐园则位列第

咨询公司AECOM指出，消费者如今普遍

了解何为真正优质的主题乐园。

China Economic Review | September 2015

封面故事

Markus Schuckert认为，迪斯尼

开业会对既有的海洋公园带来负面影响，但

尼乐园将远超香港迪斯尼乐园。尽管在这

乐园的开业将会影响整个行业。当中国消

事实证明，良性竞争反而能够同时令双方受

963英亩的占地面积中，迪斯尼乐园仅占

费者体验到更好的主题乐园后，便会拥有

益。”Markus Schuckert如是说。

其中的43%，但就管理权限而言，迪斯尼

更明确的对主题乐园的判断力。他同时预

在Mark Soskin看来，文化问题至关

集团占据了其中的七成，其余的管理权则

言，包括长隆、宋城、方特等较高层次的

重要。尽管多年来，迪斯尼已经学会在不

由一家名为上海申迪集团的国企所拥有，

主题乐园将会在与迪斯尼乐园的竞争中存

同市场适当变通，无需过度妥协让步和稀

这也意味着当地政府与迪斯尼共进退。

活，而对于较低层次、缺乏鲜明主题和高

释自身的品牌声誉，但对于中国大陆的这

质量的乐园，迪斯尼的出现势必会对其产

家新乐园，风险并非不存在。

生动摇。

香港迪斯尼乐园的开业成绩平平，甚 至引起了早期参观者的抱怨和投诉，认为

他认为，在如今的社交媒体时代，即

乐园仅是半成品。吸取这一失败的教训，

“或许我们将会看到主题乐园行业

使是再细微的失误，都有可能触发当地市

迪斯尼集团决定推迟上海迪斯尼乐园的开

的经济衰退，尤其是上海这一区域。”科

场的敏感点，从而引发网络上的大规模讨

幕。在2014年，上海迪斯尼乐园从中国农

廷大学中国媒体学教授Donald Keane说

论，将其升级为一个国际性的问题。而问

业银行处获得了巨大的财政注资。

道。在他看来，对于中国诸多民族主义者

题一旦产生，则需要花费经年累月才有可

Donald Keane认为，迪斯尼进军中

而言，并非人人都能欣赏迪斯尼这一进军

能消除。竞争对手，无论是主题乐园还是

国大陆的决策也可能进一步增强未来迪斯

中国大陆的行为。

旅游景区，也很可能放大其失误。不过通

尼和中国之间的共同合作，尤其在电影产

“米老鼠一向是资本主义、创造力、

常来说，周围与之共存的商业经济、甚至

业方面。

甚至美国形象的强有力代表，未来也并不

整个地区经济由于其强大的财政刺激也会

会改变。迪斯尼代表着某一类典型的西方

选择保护和捍卫迪斯尼。

“这类合作势必将会给电影市场带 来极大的商机，也能够为本国的电影产

上海迪斯尼乐园的成功运营将会为

业增添信心，这是双赢的局面。迪斯尼

“市场的力量能够有助于企业和行业

地方经济带来非凡利好。整个迪斯尼度假

一直以来都是扩张脚步永不停歇的商业帝

的发展。当初许多人担心香港迪斯尼乐园的

区占地963英亩，从面积而言，上海迪斯

国。”Donald Keane如是总结。

企业。”Donald Keane补充道。

China Economic Review | September 2015

25

封面故事

全球娱乐与主题公园研究 本文节选自全球主题娱乐协会（Themed Entertainment Association,TEA）与AECOM联合发布 的第九个年度的主题公园报告。

2

015年是继全球主题景点行业在全球

的成绩，并且蕴含着巨大的突破空间。在

经济复苏之后，继续出现访客量持续

最近几年中，最引人注目的是环球影城的

增长的一年。在主题公园中，欧洲已实现

哈利波特魔法世界，几年前它已突破经济

逆转，具有3%的增长率；美国一直稳定增

衰退状况，并为奥兰多重新带回游客。环

在全球排名前25位的主题公园中，

长，略高于2%；亚洲仍然是领先者，但优

球影城现已扩大其在奥兰多公园的规模，

美国由去年共11个下降至今年共10个，

势不是十分显著，约5%。

包括对角巷和霍格沃兹快车（2015年，获

而亚洲市场规模不断扩大正使得该趋势更

得多项THEA奖），我们即将看到更多的

明显，预计该趋势还将持续数年。虽然在

哈利波特景点。

短期内许多行业知识不断往海外输出，以

从投资角度来看，全球主题景点行业 的所有相关商业活动仍将重点关注亚洲。

全球娱乐与主题公园的增长趋势

在景点方面，亚洲市场供给仍太少，但满

哈利波特景点代表当代行业内两个

支持其他市场新建公园的发展，但从长远

足主题娱乐所需收入门槛的中产阶级数量

主要元素：成熟技术应用和知识产权

来看，这很可能导致美国进一步创新，例

却已经日益增多，从而为主题娱乐提供可

（IP）。这是一项巨大投资，更令人印象

如：将国际公园的成功思路实施在境内新

持续发展的重要支撑。

深刻的是其完成速度和极高整体质量，类

建公园上。

似这类景点必须具有超敏感的知识产权。

技术和知识产权

26

知识产权对设计及执行品质要求特别高。

美国主题公园的增长主要集中在排名

当今，我们的行业与知识产权所有者

前九位的公园，这得益于迪斯尼集团和环

随着美国经济衰退的结束，主题公

进行合作，已上升至创造性协作和整体规

球集团，去年这些公园的总游客人次上升

园产业已恢复到一个新常态，并表现出温

划的一个新水平。越早获得知识产权，并

4.2%，而与去年同期相比，今年游客增加

和、稳定的增长所代表的成熟市场的特

将其从银幕转移至现实环境，那么就能越

410万人次，但因其余11个公园下降2.8%

征。这个成熟市场的表现仍然体现出骄人

早获得回报且回报越多。类似这类独特的

而抵消该增长率，其余11个公园与去年

China Economic Review | September 2015

封面故事

同期相比游客量减少110万人次。这项显 示说明具有全球品牌认可的主要运营商日

行业的中国领军

益增强的主导地位，他们有机会获得强大 的知识产品，增加住宿配套，并集中在奥 兰多及加利福尼亚州南部形成顶级旅游 市场。 纵观排名前10位的拉丁美洲主题公 园，与2013年相比，2014年排名前10位 的公园总游客人次增长5%。这甚至超过 前一年将近4%的增长率。同时我们也看 到前10名中的一些变动，

进入排

行榜。 与2013年同期相比，2014年内亚洲 市场前20位主题公园整体游客人次增长近 5%。其中，日本环球影城由于哈利波特魔 法世界的开放，能看出游客人次出现显著 增长。东京迪士尼度假区，由于其30周年 庆促销活动，因此2013年内游客人次非常 巨大，2014年维持同水平的游客量。珠海 开放的长隆海洋王国主题公园游客人次很 多，且好评如潮，并且获得了Thea杰出成 就奖。 事实上在最高游客人次全球排名前25 位主题公园排行榜中，亚洲占据了10个。 表明亚洲市场处于一个持续增长模式。在 景点投资和营销中继续实施创新的公园将 得到有效的回报，而其他停滞不前的公园 将在市场上逐渐丧失其吸引力。 亚洲大规模的主题公园越来越大，增 加和扩建以满足不断增长的游客市场。例 如，韩国乐天世界游客人次经历较大幅度 增长，这几乎完全得益于中国大陆游客到 访量的增加。 海洋公园和香港迪士尼正在为香港带 来更多的休闲旅游业绩增长，当上海迪士 尼度假区于2016年春季开放时，将会造成 另一轮旅游冲击，目前已经扩大计划中的 园区容量，并正在进行筹划，以确保一切 就绪。对于中国主题公园，对于中国的主 题公园，选择在节假日开园有着明显的市 场考量。 根据行业预测：2020年亚洲市场将 会赶超美洲，也有可能会比这个时间再早 一些。

三

个亚洲集团：华侨城、长隆和宋 城现已进入全球排名前10位的 连锁主题公园排行榜。他们是如何实现 该业绩的？对于华侨城集团，主要通过 增加新公园和保持其现有公园的相对稳 定性。长隆集团通过长隆海洋王国的成 功开放而首次被推选进入到全球榜单。 宋城集团通过在一些城市中增加新文化 主题公园和表演场馆，现正处于积极扩 充趋势中。未来我们将从这三个集团看 到更多新景点；地域扩建是华侨城的模 式，另外长隆和宋城都有几个正在准备 中的新项目。中国方特欢乐世界集团和 海昌集团今年被挤出榜单，因为他们正 在扩大其投资和公园数量。 宋城和环球：再投资驱动增长 通过市场需求基本面的增长，亚 洲主题公园迎来非常强劲的一年，尤其 在中国财富增长和旅游业增长的基础 上带动游客人次的增长。当然，另一 个推动力是再投资：保持高质量标准和 增加新景点，从而每年带来更多的游客 量。2014年扩建和再投资的亚洲项目特 别强劲，例如：日本环球影城的哈利波 特魔法世界尽管开业只有半年，但全年 游客人数已打破记录。 在中国，另一个案例是宋城集团增

加了一个4500座的新剧场以演出现场 历史剧，从而公园游客容量有效增加一 倍。新剧院设备齐全，从而保持了演出 的高产量。宋城主题公园本身主要靠旅 游驱动，并通过非常强大的旅游团销售 和面向成年人、退休人群和学生团体的 旅游项目进行推动。 长隆集团处于上升状态 长隆海洋王国于2014年开放仅11 个月，且仍然在增加新景点，但现已在 亚洲前20名榜单中位居第10位。该公 园虽然临近澳门，但附近区域内并无其 他主题公园，海洋王国的建立使得一个 新区位立刻成为旅游目的地。长隆海洋 王国公园内配备了一家有1888间客房 的主题酒店，而后在一年内扩建总计约 有2700间客房的另外两家酒店。海洋王 国的成人门票价格为人民币350元，比 竞争市场价格200元（中国范围）高出 80%。这给该行业释放一个讯息，即人 们在该市场内为了追求质量而非常愿意 支付更高价格。这种显著提价的做法将 推动整个行业朝着更高质量发展。为了 保持增长，持续再投资不可缺少；公园 可以通过提价以支撑新景点的成本，创 造神奇且创新的游客体验，从而继续打 造令游客满意的市场。

China Economic Review | September 2015

27

专访

Infinite Wonders of China’s Theme Parks Culture, innovation, business and tourism … Mr. Alex Wong, the president of Space Asset Management Group, is always able to integrate them and bring forth new sparkles and ideas in various fields

A

s a prominent brand counselor and experienced strategist in China’s commercial real estate industry, Mr. Alex Wong is positively dedicated to the field’s frontier with his original value marketing and abundant creative thinking. From the reconstruction of Shanghai No. 8 Bridge Industry Park to the establishment of CIDC innovation base; from the planning and operation of shopping centers and business streets to the promotion and extension of culture creativity and tourist industry, Mr. Alex Wong unfailingly sticks to city cultural development and creates endless commercial wonders.

From the birth of “Splendid China”, the first theme park in China, to today with the opening of Shanghai Disneyland in sight, theme parks in China are undergoing rapid and multiple developments. Having been involved in various theme park projects such as Chengdu Overseas China Town, Changzhou Universal Dinosaur Town and Changzhou Joyland, Mr. Alex Wong have fostered unique perceptions of the development trends of China’s theme parks.

“Viewing global theme park development in recent years, the number of tourists bound for hot Asian parks has witnessed an obviously quicker growth than those headed for North American and European parks, and that is an everincreasing tendency,” Alex Wong said.

“Compared with North America, where theme parks development has reached a mature stage, Asia and par-

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China Economic Review | September 2015

Alex Wong/黄绍忠先生

ticularly China, enjoys more potential and is becoming a hot spot for parks constructions with the participation of massive domestic business groups and real estate tycoons. If one wants to stand out amongst the numerous fascinating parks, it must feature unique design and distinctive characters,” he added.

Mr. Alex Wong maintains that modern theme park is the synthesis and blending of humanity and business.

An original design cannot be separated from proper site selection, accurate positioning and planning, unique ideas, cultural connotations, flexible marketing strategy and in-depth product development. Among them, what matters most is an accurate and reasonable type positioning before the construction of the park.

“Nowadays, theme parks are generally divided into travel experienceoriented ones, focusing on recreations, scenario simulations and sightseeing,

and function-oriented ones featuring miniature landscapes, studios, activity participations, artistic performances and adventures. Proper positioning should only be decided upon after a careful exploration of local market demand and from the angle of city culture industry development.”

“In the Internet era, the future development of China’s theme parks will increasingly head towards intelligence science and interactive experiences, involve the idea of “Internet+”, realizing a trans-boundary integration by combining AR, holographic imaging and 4D technology under an original theme to create situational recreation facilities and give customers multiple sensory experiences. Meanwhile, planners can use Internet technology to develop various online and offline activities, analyze consumer groups through detailed data and thus further improve the operation and management of the park.”

The “2014 Global Theme Park and Museum Report” co-released by TEA/ AECOM shows that 10 Asian parks are listed in the global TOP25 Theme Parks, equal to that of the United States.

“In a few years, China’s theme park will surely take half of the places in the global TOP25,” said Alex Wong. “I will continue to keep a watchful eye on its development and try my best to promote the integration of theme parks with culture, science, technology and innovation from multiple angles.” (The article is offered by SPACE)

专访

互联网时代，中国主题公园无限精彩 文化、创意、商业、旅游，思彼思集团总裁黄绍忠先生总能将它们结合，在不同领域迸发出全新的 火花与思维产物

作

为中国商业地产领域卓越的品牌顾

乃至中国将成为大型主题公园的发展集中

密不可分。以“一镇、多园”为核心的常

问与策略实战专家，黄绍忠先生以

地。若想在包罗万象的主题公园中突出重

州环球恐龙城历经十余年发展，完成了从

独创的价值营销结合丰富的创意理念，活

围，主题公园便需要拥有独树一帜的设计

单一主题公园到复合型景区的转型升级，

跃在中国房地产行业的前沿领域。从创意

与特色。”

将恐龙文化与文化演艺、温泉休闲、游憩

产业园上海八号桥的改造，到创意创新基

黄绍忠先生认为，现代主题公园是人

型商业及动漫创意合于一体，在打破传统

地CIDC的创建；从购物中心与商业街的策

文与商业相结合的综合体，主题公园设计

景区概念的基础上，把旅游休闲的功能分

划与运营，到文创、旅游产业的推动与推

的独具一格离不开恰当的选址、精准的定

散到每个角落，进而融合了文化、居住等

广，始终立于城市文化发展的视角，演绎

位与设计、独特的创意与文化内涵、灵活

不同功能，共同组成一个配套完善、个性

着商业的无限精彩。

的营销策略与深度的产品开发。其中最重

鲜明的一站式恐龙主题度假地。2014全球

要的是，在设计主题公园之前需要给予主

主题公园研究中，常州恐龙园以单园年接

题公园准确合理的类型定位。

待量370万，排名亚洲第13位。

从中国第一家主题公园“锦绣中华” 的诞生，到如今上海迪士尼开业在即，主 题公园在中国的发展愈发迅速与多元。参

“如今主题公园可大致分为：以游

同样，常州环球动漫嬉戏谷也在主

与过成都华侨城、常州环球恐龙城、常州

乐、情景模拟、观光为主导的旅游体验型

题打造上有着独到之处。动漫嬉戏谷捕捉

环球动漫嬉戏谷等众多主题公园项目的黄

主题公园，以及拥有微缩景观、影视城、

到动漫文化产业的无限潜力。“动漫、科

先生，对于中国主题公园的发展趋势有着

活动参与、艺术表演、科幻探险等功能与

普、体验，都是主题公园发展的关键词，

独到的解读。

用途的主题公园，如何选择类型，则需要

怎样抓住‘主题’的核心，创造新型体

在了解当地市场需求后，站在城市文化产

验，并以寓教于乐的方式推动文化与旅游

业发展的角度进行规划。”

的发展，使主题公园超越娱乐层面，是越

“按近几年主题公园在全球的增长来 看，亚洲热门主题公园整体游客人次增长

来越多执行团队在思考的问题。”黄先

速度显然高于北美与欧洲，并处于持续增

常州环球恐龙城无疑是如今市场上较

长的良好态势。”黄绍忠先生说：“相较

为成功的主题公园之一。黄先生认为，环

于处于成熟阶段的北美，随着众多国内商

球恐龙城的成功，与其集观光、游乐、休

“在互联网时代的背景下，未来中国

业集团与房产大佬涉足主题公园，亚洲，

闲、文化、商业与人居于一体的复合型态

主题公园的发展会越来越多地朝智慧科技

生道。

与互动体验迈进，将‘互联网+’思维贯穿 其间，实现多元跨界融合—在创新独特 的主题之下，利用AR、全息影像、4D等 技术，打造情景式娱乐设施，赋予游客多 重感官体验；同时，利用互联网技术，创 造线上线下多重互动；再配合大数据准确 分析消费人群，进一步提升主题公园的合 理化运营与管理。” 根据TEA/AECOM联合发布的 《2014全球主题公园和博物馆报告》 显示，2014年亚洲的主题公园在全球 TOP25中占据10席，在数量上与美国旗鼓 相当。“再过几年，全球TOP25中，中国 主题公园一定会占据半壁江山！而我将会 持续关注中国主题公园的发展，并从多元 主题的角度继续努力，推动主题公园与文 化、科技、创意的融合与发展。”（思彼 思供稿）

China Economic Review | September 2015

31

封面故事

“趣 · 玩”文化进行时 在长三角都市圈这片中国河网密度最高、旅游资源丰富的地区里，山水景色自是钟灵毓秀，创意旅 游产业的发展也是日渐繁盛。位于太湖之滨的江苏常州，便是其中最具代表之一。

常

州这座湖滨城市，已有着逾3200

主题公园作为一种人造旅游资源，其

内，在沪宁沿线上占有得天独厚的地理优

年的历史，是长江文明和吴文化

最重要的特征即创意性，游客追求的不仅

势，是一座集科普、博物、游乐、休闲、

的发源地之一，也是南朝齐梁故里，深厚

有身体的感官体验，还要有心灵的精神体

演艺、环保等于一体的恐龙文化主题乐

的历史渊源与文化底蕴让这座北携长江、

验，独特的文化是吸引游客的核心内涵，

园，也是环球恐龙城的核心景点。从建筑

南衔太湖的城市拥有众多风景名胜与历史

这必然要求主题公园也随之要有更丰富的

到运营，中华恐龙园都呼应着其“恐龙”

古迹。

内容与层次感，要让游人常玩常新。

的主题。

如今，常州依托丰富优美的自然风景

只有在追求独特创意下推陈出新，才

2000年，占地面积600余亩的中华

及得天独厚的交通优势，大力发展着文化

能建设出市场需要的游乐体验地。常州的

恐龙园正式开园，是国内大型的将博物、

旅游度假产业，其国家级旅游名片环球动

环球动漫嬉戏谷和中华恐龙园分别作为全

高科技声光电、影视特效与多媒体网络等

漫嬉戏谷、中华恐龙园如今均已成为国内

球首个网络游戏主题公园及世界恐龙文化

完美结合，融展示、科普、娱乐、休闲及

文化主题公园的典范。

主题乐园，均以独到创新的娱乐方式、虚

参与性表演于一体的恐龙文化主题综合性

拟与现实的完美对接，为每位造访者打造

主题游乐园。园内的70余项游乐项目都围

了一个前所未有的梦幻互动娱乐空间。

绕着高科技与恐龙主题设置，分为主题游

文化 · 趣味，欢乐正当时 随着对旅游市场的需求，各地主题 公园层出不穷，但同时也有一部分却已倒 闭、停业。中国的主题公园该如何发展俨 然已成为中国旅游业实现新高度所面临的 严峻问题。

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China Economic Review | September 2015

乐、科技制作、小品观赏、生态表演、趣

中华恐龙园 世界恐龙文化的体验基地

味游戏等几大类，包括世界第三、国内首 台4D过山车“过山龙”，神秘险象丛生

享有“东方侏罗纪”美誉的中华恐龙

的库克苏克大峡谷、粗犷的鲁布拉、经典

园位于江苏省常州新区的现代旅游休闲区

的穿越侏罗纪、原始的侏罗纪雨林，还有

封面故事

色彩缤纷的嘻哈恐龙城……运用了多种高 科技手段和声光电技术展示制作了恐龙化 石、动画、游戏等。 中华恐龙园内，一只拖着售卖车的恐 龙穿梭在人群中。这只高科技仿真恐龙有 着与真恐龙相差无几的皮肤纹理和质感， 会扭头、会眨眼、会张嘴巴，还会放声嚎 叫，一举一动都像一个超级明星，引来无 数孩子兴奋尖叫，让人感受到“创意无 限”的真正内涵。 作为中国民族主题乐园中的领军品 牌，中华恐龙园的“恐龙复活”计划已经 全面启动，以“文化和科技融合”为战 略。未来，中华恐龙园还将利用国际顶尖 的无人驾驶技术、四足奔跑、仿真机器人 等技术，实现翼龙在天上飞，霸王龙、 长颈龙在游客身边活动的侏罗纪公园场

有英雄门、淘宝大街、摩尔庄园、传奇天

动联通，将动漫游戏主题继续深入挖掘，

景；3D云渲染、幻影成像等技术手段的

下、星际传说、迷兽大陆、神秘之岛、嬉

其中包括与游戏巨头“完美世界”联袂打

应用，可以让仿真特效影院、互动黑暗乘

戏族欢乐港和圣殿山等九大主题文化体验

造的华东超级“完美水世界”；与腾讯首

骑、恐龙魔幻剧场等游览体验更逼真、更

区，内含丰富的动漫游戏游艺项目，其中

度携手合作的线下儿童体验区“洛克王

有趣。

多个均属全球首创。园内还配套建有嬉戏

国”；还原秘境探险、神魔传说的“幻想

中华恐龙园的成功，主要取决于科普

谷国际电竞博览中心和嬉戏谷大剧院，以

森林”；将普罗旺斯的唯美浪漫空运而来

事业和旅游经济的有机结合，包含科普“

创新的完整产业链搭建着这座国际级动漫

的“太湖吧街”等四大主题体验区。

文脉”、凸显“形象”特色、涵盖“游

游戏文化体验博览园。

乐”要素，成为科普教育性较强的主题公 园和游乐参与性较强的文化主题公园。

将动漫游戏虚拟场景局部实景化演

配合整体动漫游戏的文化主题，这

绎，融合休闲娱乐、互动体验、展示博

里汇聚了众多知名的动漫形象品牌旗舰

览、演艺竞技于一体，嬉戏谷就是这样通

今天的中华恐龙园已获得了国家5A级

店。这无疑是场盛大的线下动漫游戏爱

过创新的方式，演绎着数字文化精髓。经

景区、全国科普教育基地、中国文化产业

好者的淘宝集会— 卡通玩具、漫画图

过多年的发展规划，现在的嬉戏谷，围绕

示范基地等殊荣。文化与科技相融合所创

书、电子产品、工艺品、装饰品、服装

动漫游戏文化体验、智能科技研发应用、

造的各种创意体验，将成为未来旅游服务

配饰等一应俱全。目前，迪斯尼、哆啦A

体育电子竞技运动、数字文化主题旅游四

业最核心的竞争力。

梦、SNOOPY、几米、华纳等众多国际知

大功能，已然成为国内唯一、规模最大、

名卡通品牌及动漫游戏刀剑、面具文化特

体验全新的数字文化主题景区。

环球动漫嬉戏谷 网络游戏文化的实景再现

色店已经入驻，成为国内动漫、游戏领域 的全类别、全系列衍生产品“集中营”。

自2011年5月开业以来，嬉戏谷累计 接待游客650万人次，先后荣膺“中国十

以太湖山水风光为依托的太湖湾旅

嬉戏谷最大的特色便是它营造出的身

大高端旅游品牌”、“最受欢迎的十大出

游度假区，宛如常州境内一块经过精心雕

临其境的感受，就好像处在真实的动漫游

游目的地景区”、“中国创意产业最佳园

琢的璞玉，成为一张光芒璀璨的国家旅游

戏环境之中，是一个文化与科技高度融合

区”等称号，被评为“国家4A级旅游景

名片。

发展的超级创意产业园区。它用数字、科

区”、“全国科普教育基地”、“全国电

在太湖湾数字文化区中有个著名的“

技的手段将一个神秘未知、超越现实的“

子竞技运动基地”、“中国少年儿童动漫

网络文化迪斯尼”的环球动漫嬉戏谷。

奇幻世界”带入到现实，让每个到此的

活动体验基地”、“江苏省文化产业示范

以“动漫艺术、游戏文化”为主题，将超

人，都能以主角的身份，在现实中演绎“

基地”等众多称号。这些辉煌的成绩单，

前的数字娱乐和高科技术相融合，也是目

穿越奇幻世界”的传奇之旅。与“迪斯

无一不在告知我们，嬉戏谷以它准确鲜明

前中国最大的数字文化主题园区，全球首

尼”及“环球影城”形成了主题差异。

的定位逐渐赢得了人们的关注，并以“穿

个网络游戏主题公园。 嬉戏谷一期占地约600亩，主要建

占地350亩的二期嬉戏海也已经于去 年7月正式对外运营。二期与一期形成互

越奇幻世界”的鲜明感召力影响着长三角 乃至全国。（思彼思供稿）

China Economic Review | September 2015

33

CULTURE MAP

Jurassic World: awe and redemption in a world of chaos The hot new film ‘Jurassic World’ brings the Mesozoic creature who dominated the global ecosystem for over 160 million years back into our sights again. Following deep study over many years, the huge and mysterious dinosaurs seem to be a special symbol of fear, blood and cruelty

‘

Jurassic World’ is the sequel to ‘Jurassic Park’, and we return 22 years later when Isla Nublar has been turned into a big theme park and resort destination – Jurassic World.

Large numbers of visitors come based on its amazing reputation, indulging in the beautiful scenery and tranquil atmosphere. The most attractive part is

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China Economic Review | September 2015

to take a boat, car or transparent spin and enjoy the many different types of dinosaurs in the park. However, beneath the outward calm and cheerfulness is a feeling of danger.

In the process of making dinosaurs, InGen goes so far as to create a “mixedblood”. They combine DNA from different types of dinosaurs or even dif-

ferent species, resulting in the creation of the dreaded D-Rex. Then, accidents happen one after another on this peaceful island.

A Sincere Salute Like ‘Jurassic Park’ in 1993, there are several emotional lines and thoughts about the relationship between civiliza-

CULTURE MAP

tion and Nature. Upon the showing of ‘Jurassic World’, many audiences commented that the film tends to stay close to the classic ‘Jurassic Park’. And it’s true, the large groups of gallimimus running on the wilderness, the visit to the former site of Jurassic Park, the reappearance of Tyrannosaurus Rex after 22 years, and the familiar background music composed by John Williams all expose its attempt of pay tribute to the classic old film.

Looking back on the production of ‘Jurassic Park’, we can see that Universal Pictures has taken great pains getting the rights to adapt and film the novel. It finally won after a harsh competition with Warner Brothers, Tim Burton, Sony Pictures, Richard Donnell, 20th Century Fox Film Corporation and Joe Dante. It paid 500,000 dollars to the original author Crichton for script adaption and spent 65 million dollars to publicize the film by signing a contract with 100 companies for the production and sales of 1,000 related products. All its efforts were not futile, and the Universal Picture made a huge amount of money from the film. Besides its top ten box office

status, it also obtained several Oscars.

‘Jurassic World’ was once thought to have to be suspended owing to the death of Crichton, but it was not the case. The two scriptwriters of ‘Rise of the Planet of the Apes’ Rick Jaffa and Amanda Silver took over the job while Steven Spielberg was the producer.

Even though we have witnessed an astounding advance in film technology and a stunning development of special effects over the intervening years, this film which cost 150 million dollars still stirs our optic nerves with its fascinating and grand scenes.

A Whimsical Tall Story The author of ‘Jurassic Park’ Michael Crichton died on 4 November, 2008.

This ‘father of the science fiction thriller’ is famous in America but not so well known in China. Still, the film adapted from his noted novel ‘Jurassic Park’ is popular among Chinese readers. The author of this best seller with sales of over 150 million was originally a Medical Doctor in Harvard University. He went on to write several best sellers, and also successfully played the roles of scriptwriter, producer and director.

He even had his own software company, Film Track. Although almost all his novels have been adapted and filmed, the most popular one is undoubtedly ‘Jurassic Park’.

‘Jurassic Park’ was not his first novel to be put onto the screen. Previously, ‘The Andromeda Strain’ had already gained a remarkable box office success. On the contrary, it was the ‘Jurassic Park’ that didn’t win much favor at the very beginning. Crichton wrote in his notes: “In 1983, I wrote a film script about a DNA cloning pterosaur; however the story was not very persuasive. Afterwards, I worked several more years on this theme, trying to make it convincible. Finally I decided to create a theme park scene from the angle of a little boy who is just at the spot of dinosaur escaping. After finishing the story, I sent the book to the people who always read my script.

Usually I could get five or six reply, yet this time none gave a feedback. I was very angry towards their reactions, but they just said ‘why do you write such a story?’ I asked them to explain why they don’t like this story. They couldn’t give a clear answer. Then I wrote another version. They didn’t like it either. Then another, the same result. Finally, a reader told me the truth – they hope that the story is written from the angle of an adult instead of a child. He said ‘I hope that this story is written for me, namely from the perspective of an adult.’ Then I re-wrote an adult version, which at last won every one’s heart.

Perhaps even Crichton himself didn’t imagine that this story which was rejected at first would become such a big success in the end. Neither would he ever imagine that an accidental

China Economic Review | September 2015

35

CULTURE MAP

attempt at novel writing could finally bring him such rewards.

Crichton was originally in the department of literature when he entered Harvard in 1960. Then he changed his major to join in the anthropology department. Afterwards, he went on studying a master’s degree in the medical department and achieved Doctor of Medicine of Harvard in 1969. Solid science knowledge was a big advantage for his novel writing. At that time, the clone technology described in ‘Jurassic Park’ was thought to be just imagination. However, it is just such rich imagination and abundant science knowledge that attracted so many readers and film fans to deeply indulge in the story lines and breathtaking scenes.

An Unexpected Dinosaur Disaster Michael Crichton is undoubtedly a big fan of Chaos Theory.

Chaos Theory was proposed by American meteorologist Edward Lorenz in 1963. The theory tries to explain or forecast phenomena like climate change or social behavior that can’t be described by linear or single mathematical formula with overall and continuous data. Michael Crichton, who had a background in archaeology, anthropology, biology, neurology and medical science, wrote the novel in a period when Chaos Theory was making a great disturbance in science circles.

Reviewing the story line of ‘Jurassic Park’ series, it gives the best explanation of Chaos Theory: first, people discovered a mosquito in amber and then extracted the dinosaurs DNA from it.

Afterwards, Dr. John Hammond managed to clone a real dinosaur with it and thus established a dinosaur park

36

China Economic Review | September 2015

on Isla Nublar. However, genetic variations occurred in some dinosaurs while the park was also damaged. Some people tried to bring the dinosaurs off the island, which resulted in an unprecedented catastrophe when many dinosaurs escaped.

Who could ever expect that a little mosquito thousands of years ago could finally trigger such a disastrous event just because it had accidently absorbed some dinosaur’s blood? If we just see these two events separately, no one could ever imagine the final relationship. This is what Chaos Theory is all about. Surely, a common novelist could never introduce this theory so thoroughly and easily. But to Michael Crichton who has a science background, this becomes the best attractive point to his novel. If we read the original edition of ‘Jurassic Park’, we will discover that it is not divided by “Chapter” but by “Iteration”. Under the subtitle of each section there is a fracture image of iteration process.

This unique form not only creatively carries the story line forward but also further reveals the novelist’s attempt to publicize Chaos Theory. Due to the

existence of such a theory, the genetic variation of dinosaurs is not so incomprehensible.

In ‘Jurassic World’, new genetic variations occur among the dinosaurs.

The genetically variant dinosaur in the film -- D-Rex is an embodiment of human’s arrogance and irreverence towards Nature. D-Rex combines the DNA of adult tyrannosaurus, velociraptor, snake and inkfish. This new-born super predator can disguise itself and blend into the surrounding environment. It has the destructive impact of the tyrannosaurus, the cloaking ability and cunning of the velociraptor. It can even manipulate the velociraptor to help itself through communication.

Therefore, many incredible scenes take place: D-Rex begins planning to break from the prison, thinking about its own position in the biological chain. Besides, the velociraptor which has formed a relationship with the hero Irving begins to understand emotions and learns to communicate with humans.

It also unfolds the film’s intention to discuss the relations between Man and Nature, man and other creatures. Viewing ‘Jurassic World’ from such an angle,

CULTURE MAP

we can see that it actually tells a complicated and tough story: at the beginning, man appears as the maker, and regards dinosaurs as their created thing. At last, man admits that the dinosaur is a creature of high intelligence and independent consciousness. This is a big change in recognition and emotion.

Awe to Nature The wide popularity of ‘Jurassic Park’ series is itself a revelation of Chaos theory. In spite of the fact that the novel had already been a best seller in America, were it not for Universal Pictures and Steven Spielberg putting it onto the screen, neither Michael nor ‘Jurassic Park’ would have achieved such fame and impact worldwide.

In June, 1993, ‘Jurassic Park’ made a stir, with over US$900 million in box office globally, a record which stood until ‘Titanic’ five years later.

In the film, Chaos theory is weakened. Audiences are more willing to indulge in the vivid dinosaur world and exciting visual impact rather than thinking about the Chaos theory of nonlinear kinetics.

Even the word Chaos itself is translated into a very superficial meaning. But audiences’ hearts still flutter with the development of the story lines – they are shocked, curious and delighted on first seeing the dinosaurs. They are cast into great fear when catastrophe strikes.

Big rejoicing comes upon the hero’s narrow escape from death. After experiencing all the ups and downs of the film characters, audiences begin to ponder and reflect: should humans intervene in nature, violate the evolutionary process and the rules of nature depending on their advanced science and technology?

Is it right to cause such an out-of-control situation and a big disaster?

Although is has been discussed in previous science fiction films such as the ‘Alien’ series, abuse of bioengineering technology can bring great harm Jurassic to mankind is handled by the ‘Jurassic

Park’ series in an obviously more attractive and creative way. In ‘Jurassic World’, we can still see a group of people who are so complacent after mastering some highly advanced science and technology. They even lose their fear towards nature and violate ecological law just for their own interests. It’s not hard to imagine the results they will cause.

But unlike previous films, ‘Jurassic World’ presents another group of persons. They treat dinosaurs equally.

Knowing their violent characteristics, they also believe that dinosaurs have emotions and wisdom too. So we see people like Irving who get along well with the velociraptor and communicate with it using eye expressions and limb movements. Finally velociraptor and tyrannosaurus work together and s defeat D-Rex, saving Irving at the critiTh incredible and warm cal moment. This th narrow escape more scene makes the precious.

Wo ‘Jurassic World’, the epitome of the on features spectacular genre, not only scenes and vivid special effects, but also reveals a down down-to-earth attitude and awe to Nature. Take Irving for instance. t scientists who live in He is not like the the laboratory. He gets in touch with pe dinosaurs in person to study the creaseem like anti-intellectual tures. It seems behavior, but it is in fact a more openscientif spirit of practical sigminded scientific c nificance. We could say that if humans want to further their understanding of nee more earnest scientific nature, they need researchers like Irving who believe that on told by practice, rather truth can be only ideali who stayed in their than the idealists deal laboratory, dealing with numbers. (The offer by SPACE; Related article is offered fro Internet) pictures are from

China Economic Econo Review | September 2015

37

文化地图

侏罗纪世界 混沌世界里的敬畏与救赎 《侏罗纪世界》的热映，再一次让恐龙这一支配全球陆地生态系统超过1亿6千万年之久的中生代物种，与我们在光影中相见。历经时间 的验证与挖掘，这个庞大而神秘的族群，在人们的认知中，似乎与恐惧、血腥、食肉、残酷划上了等号。

《

侏罗纪世界》是《侏罗纪公园》的 续集，发生在第一部结尾的22年之

后，纳布拉尔岛已经发展成为一个庞大的 主题公园和度假胜地—侏罗纪世界。无 数游客慕名而来，优美的景色和宁静的气 氛令人们流连忘返。无论是乘船、驾车， 还是坐在透明的旋转球里，欣赏各种类型 的恐龙成为主题公园最吸引人的所在。但 是在这一派和谐与热闹之中，隐隐会觉得 暗藏危机。 如今的国际基因科技公司（InGen） 在制造恐龙的同时还力图打造“混血儿”， 将不同种类甚至不同物种的DNA相结合， 最终意外制造出可怕的D-Rex暴虐龙。 于是，意外在这个美丽的岛屿接连发生。

一次诚意的致敬与回首 与1993年的《侏罗纪公园》一样， 在《侏罗纪世界》中，增加了多条感情线

影。功夫不负苦心人，环球影业也终于名

国的“科技惊悚小说之父”并不为很多中

利双收—除了至今仍排进前十的巨额票

国读者所了解，但由他的著名小说改编的

房外，电影还获得了多项奥斯卡奖。

同名电影《侏罗纪公园》，在中国却广为

和对文明与自然关系的探讨。《侏罗纪世

《侏罗纪世界》这部曾被认为因克莱

界》上映伊始，向1993年的经典靠拢，就

顿逝世可能被搁置的电影，换由《猩球崛

这位著作销量超过1.5亿本的畅销书

成为无数人对这部影片的评价。从大群似

起》（Rise of the Planet of the Apes）

作家曾是一位哈佛医学博士，辞职后不但

鸡龙的旷野奔腾，到侏罗纪公园旧址的故

的两位编剧里克 • 杰法（Rick Jaffa）和阿

写了多本畅销书，还成功地做过编剧、制

地重游，从蛰伏22年的霸王龙重出江湖，

曼达 • 斯尔沃（Amanda Silver）接手继

片人和导演，并拥有自己的FilmTrack软

到约翰 • 威廉姆斯的经典配乐，影片向经典

续创作，史蒂文 • 斯皮尔伯格为该片担任

件公司。虽然这位传奇人物的小说几乎本

致敬的初衷可见一斑。

监制。即使在电影技术突飞猛进、科技特

本被改编后搬上荧屏，但恐怕最为世人耳

回首当年的《侏罗纪公园》，彼时环

效迅猛发展的今天，这部耗费1.5亿美元

熟能详、津津乐道的，还是那本《侏罗纪

球影业为了得到其改编拍摄权可谓煞费苦

的影片场景依然清晰地震撼着我们的视觉

公园》。

心，在与华纳兄弟公司、蒂姆 • 波顿、索

神经！

尼影业、理查德 • 唐纳、20世纪福克斯和 乔 • 丹特的竞争中终成赢家。并支付50万美

38

人知。

《侏罗纪公园》并非是克莱顿首部 搬上银幕的小说。《天外细菌》、《人间

一部异想天开的离奇故事

大浩劫》等都在《侏罗纪公园》之前收

元让其原作作者克莱顿亲自改编剧本，斥

《侏罗纪公园》的原著作者— 迈

获不俗的票房。反而是《侏罗纪公园》在

资6500万美元与100家公司签订了制造及

克尔 • 克莱顿（Michael Crichton）已于

最初并不被大家看好。克莱顿在笔记中写

销售1000种产品的协议来宣传营销这部电

2008年11月4日阖然辞世。这位享誉美

道：“1983年，我写过一个从化石中的

文化地图

DNA克隆翼龙的电影剧本，但故事不很

最大成功的一个，正如他也不曾料到自

据解释或预测类似气象变化、社会行为等

有说服力。此后，我就这个主题又工作

己误打误撞尝试创作小说会有如此丰硕的

无法用线性的、单一的数学公式加以描述

了数年，尽力去让它可信。最终，我决意

成就。

的现象和规律。而具有考古人类学、生物

写一个主题公园的场景，写一部来自一个

克莱顿1960年进入哈佛大学，原本读

学、神经学和医学背景的迈克尔 • 克莱顿的

男孩视角的小说，他就在恐龙脱逃出来的

的是文学系，后来转入人类学系，随后进

小说恰是在混沌理论在科学界掀起轩然大

现场。写完后，我把书寄给了总是读我手

入医学院攻读硕士研究生，并在1969年获

波的年代所创作的。

稿的人。往常，我会收到五六个人的回

得了哈佛大学医学博士学位。扎实的科学

纵观《侏罗纪公园》系列影片的故事

复，而这次无人应答。我对他们的反应很

基础使他的小说如虎添翼，在《侏罗纪公

情节，也正是对混沌理论的诠释：在机缘

愤懑，他们却说：‘为什么要写这样一

园》中的细胞克隆技术在当年还被认为是

巧合之下发现了琥珀中的蚊子，并在其体

本书？’我让他们解释为何如此讨厌这本

异想天开，但就是这样丰富的想象力加上

内的血液里提炼出了远古恐龙的DNA，约

书，他们又说不出所以然。我另写了一

丰富的科学知识功底使读者乃至后来的影

翰 • 哈蒙德博士把它克隆出了真恐龙，从而

个版本，他们还是讨厌。然后我再写了

迷都不由自主深陷他的故事，为那些命悬

在努布拉岛上建立了一个恐龙乐园，结果

一稿，结果依旧。终于有位读者告诉我原

一线的场景与剧情而心有余悸。

一些恐龙发生了变异，公园也遭人破坏， 还有人妄图把恐龙带出小岛，导致大量恐

因—他们希望故事来自大人的视点，而 非孩子。他说，我希望这个故事是为我而 写的，意即从成人的角度。于是我重新写 了一个成人版的故事，总算让每个人都很

一场始料未及的恐龙灾难 可以说迈克尔 • 克莱顿是混沌理论的 拥趸。

龙逃出藩篱，造成了空前的灾难性局面。 谁又能想到，在千万年前一只小小蚊 子不经意地吸了某个恐龙的血，竟会引发

混沌理论（Chaos）由美国气象学家

千万年后如此大的灾难事故呢？如果我们

恐怕连克莱顿自己也没想到，这个

爱德华 • 诺顿 • 洛伦茨（Edward Lorenz）

仅看起源和结果，根本无法进行推测。这

起初并不招人待见的故事，却是最终赢得

在1963年提出，尝试用整体、连续的数

恰恰就是混沌理论要诠释的命题。可

喜欢它。”

China Economic Review | September 2015

39

文化地图

淡化了，观众更多的沉浸在恍若真实的恐 龙世界和刺激的视觉冲击中而无法领悟 到更多的非线性动力学混沌“教训”，甚 至“chaos”也被译成“混乱”。但是观 众却能随着剧情的推演—从看到逼真恐 龙的震撼、好奇、欣喜，到面对灾难发生 时的惊惧，以及最后死里逃生时的庆幸。 观影者在与剧中人物一起经历这跌宕起伏 的整个过程后，开始反思，深省：人类在 科技高度发达后，到底应不应该干预自 然，违背进化过程，违反自然规律，最终 导致局面失控、引发灾难。 虽然此前的科幻电影《异形》 （Alien）系列中已有端倪，但显然《侏 罗纪公园》的故事和场景更为别出心裁， 更能警示人们滥用生物工程技术的危害。 在《侏罗纪世界》里，我们依然会看到这 样的一些人：在掌握高度发达的科学技术 后，他们难免沾沾自喜，甚至会放弃对大 自然造物主应有的敬畏之心，为满足自我 以断言普通的小说家绝对无法深入简 出地介绍混沌理论，但这对于搞科学出身

主角欧文打成一片的迅猛龙，甚至开始了

的探索与利益而违反生态法则。后果自然

解情感、学习与人沟通。

可想而知。

的迈克尔 • 克莱顿来说，恰好是他小说的

这也是影片对于人与自然、与生物共

而不同于以往的影片，在《侏罗纪

最佳卖点与吸引点！如果翻看《侏罗纪公

处关系的探讨。从这样的角度来看《侏罗

世界》里，我们还看到了这样的一些人：

园》英文小说原版，会发现它的每一章并

纪世界》，影片实际上讲述了一段复杂而

他们将恐龙当做平等的生物来对待，接受

不叫“Chapter”，而是叫“Iteration”

艰苦的历程：人类以造物者的身份，从把

它们的凶猛本性的同时，也相信它们的情

（迭代），每章标题下都是一幅迭代进程

恐龙视为“物”，到承认恐龙是拥有自主

感与智慧。于是，我们看到欧文与迅猛龙

的分形生成图。这种形式不但很有新意地

意识的高智商生命，是认知的跨越，也是

平安无事的相处与眼神肢体的交流，还看

推进了小说的情节，也进一步表明了作者

情感的跨越。

到最终迅猛龙与霸王龙合力击倒暴虐龙，

宣传混沌理论的意图。正是存在着这样的 混沌理论，所以恐龙的变异便不再那么难 以理解。 在《侏罗纪世界》里，恐龙又产生了 新的变异。

面对自然生态的敬畏之心 《侏罗纪公园》声名大噪这个事实本

剧情设置，无疑让这场劫后余生更显弥足 珍贵。

身却也十分耐人寻味地与混沌理论暗合。

《侏罗纪世界》这部集大成的怀旧力

虽然小说已然在美畅销，但若不是环球影

作，除了强大而震撼的场面、逼真而宏大

影片中的变异恐龙—D-Rex（暴虐

业（Universal Picture）和史蒂文 • 斯皮尔

的特效，务实态度与对自然的敬畏，也是

龙），可以说是人类对大自然傲慢和不敬

伯格（Steven Allan Spielberg）将它搬上

影片最集中的体现。正如影片中的欧文，

的化身。它结合了成年霸王龙、迅猛龙、

荧幕拍成电影，恐怕无论迈克尔还是《侏

他不同于实验室里的科学家，而是以与恐

蛇和乌贼的DNA，这种新生的超级掠食者

罗纪公园》都无法在全球范围内也获得如

龙的实际接触来了解这一物种，这看似是

能与周围的环境伪装成一体，它有霸王龙

此高的影响力和知名度。

一种反智倾向，其实是更开明更富现实意

的破坏性力量，同时也有迅猛龙的匿踪能

1993年6月《侏罗纪公园》一经上映

义的科学精神。或者说，人类要增进对自

力和狡诈，甚至还能够通过交流操纵迅猛

就取得轰动效果，全球票房竟超过了9亿美

然的了解，需要欧文这样与迅猛龙亲密接

龙帮助自己。于是，我们看到了众多的不

元，这一纪录直到5年后《泰坦尼克》的出

触，以实践出真知的实地科研者，而不是

可思议：暴虐龙开始懂得谋策越狱，开始

现才被打破！

在实验室与数字打交道的空想主义。（思

思考自己在生物链的所处位置，还有与男

40

救助他于生死关头。这样看似不可思议的

China Economic Review | September 2015

在电影里，“混沌理论”的色彩被

彼思供稿，图片均来自于互联网）

话题

中国地产商都在海外 做什么？ 来越多的中国人在海外买房，其

越

及文娱产业，花费了近23亿欧元，但其

过100亿美元。中国在整个亚洲海外商业

中有留学、移民、投资等各种需

在印度约28-36平方千米的工业园区的投

物业投资的占比已超过四分之一。

求，其中公寓、酒店等高租金回报率的物

资，因印度政府方面无法提供这么大面积

业类型，成为中国买家的首选。并且，中

的土地，没有计算在内。

国地产商中，被吸引去国外购地的也大有 人在。

都有谁在买买买

海外置地对于大企业来说，可能自

地产商都在买什么？ 1. 商用类写字楼、仓库、酒店等

有其战略性地位，例如有评论分析，李嘉

高玮环球大中华区海外投资部总裁范

诚也许想通过将资产‘脱亚入欧’的方式

桂娟在7月19日的博鳌 · 21世纪房地产论坛

完成家族的传承，因为他的儿子们并没有

上表示，住宅类的产品数量正在下降，而

最近的新闻是李嘉诚继续从内地撤

像他那样的在政商界长袖善舞的本领，因

商业类项目正在增加，当日，德同律师事

资，近年来，李嘉诚不仅没有在内地继续

此离开内地和香港，可能是出于对家族的

务所合伙人理查德（Richard Budge）也

增加投资，而且在欧洲大片置地：在抛售

保护。

在论坛上向中国投资者透露“商机”：在

内地物业后，回笼资金可能将用于脱亚入

万达海外置业看上去则是为其转型下

英国尤其是伦敦中心地带，办公楼非常有

欧。去年4月份，李嘉诚旗下和记黄埔获批

了重要一招：上半年紧锣密鼓进行海外投

限，此外由于近期电子商务行业的快速发

在伦敦发展涉及达10亿英镑（约129亿港

资和并购反映了万达国际化战略在提速，

展，德国人对物流仓库有着强劲需求。他

元）的综合房地产项目，在伦敦金丝雀码

无论从空间层面还是内容层面，似乎为了

鼓励中国投资者对海外房地产项目进行多

头以东3.2公里的英国海军船坞旧所在地特

推进万达的第四次转型。

样化投资。

福德，发展包括3500个住宅单位的多层大 厦，以及写字楼、商店、餐厅及酒店。

7月中旬，世邦魏理仕发布的报告

世邦魏理仕研究部华北区副董事孙祖

《聚焦海外-中国资本崛起之路》指出，

天表示，“中国的房地产开发商及资产管

此外，万达、万科、碧桂园、绿地等

过去四年，中国资本投资海外商业物业

理公司正在积极拓展海外市场，他们希望

都在海外扩充土储。万达在今年上半年，

（不包括开发项目及个人住宅投资）的年

通过收购优质写字楼及酒店物业获得经验

其海外地产主要并购五星级酒店综合体以

复合增长率高达72%，并在2014年首次超

和收益，在当地建立声誉，并借此开展零 售及工业物业地产。”

2. 零售、住宅、工业及土地 根据世邦魏理仕的研究数据，中国 企业海外投资流向零售、住宅和工业的资 金，已经从2013年的不到10%升至2014 年的25%。 随着不动产物业投资的增多，土地投 资正在减少。统计数据显示，2014年中资 企业海外不动产并购标的类型在宗数上， 酒店、写字楼和土地“三分天下”。其中 涉及土地的交易金额则占比下降明显，从 29%下跌到4%。一位分析师表示，“能 直接带来稳定现金流的酒店和写字楼等已 建物业，将继续成为‘外投’积极抢夺的 重要标的。”

China Economic Review | September 2015

41

COLUMN

China is a rapidly growing market for online shopping

C

BRE recently launched its latest research report entitled Asia Pacific Consumer Survey—How We Like to Shop Online.

The survey, polling 11,000 shoppers in 11 major markets, was conducted to identify current and future shopping trends in the region.

As the survey indicates, China is the most rapidly growing market for online shopping. Mobile shopping and social media are becoming increasingly prevalent as Generation Z rises as key buying force for the retail sector.

Focusing on the e-commerce sector, the survey reveals that online shopping is growing at a fast rate as the most pop-

42

China Economic Review | September 2015

ular method of purchase in many Asian markets. Consumers aged 18-24— known as ‘Generation Z’—are also set to play an influential role in the regional retail market in the coming years. As a result of factors such as these, landlords and retailers will need to be proactive in order to remain competitive.

China is the Most Rapidly Growing Market for Online Shopping; Over 70% Consumers utilizing Social Media to Buy China is the most rapidly growing market for online shopping, with 45% surveyed indicating buying online at least once a week. Particularly in 3rd and

4th-tier cities, given the lack of quality retail space, online retail is often the most efficient way for retailers to reach their customers.

Mobile shopping and social media are becoming increasingly prevalent in China. Over 45% of consumers in China are purchasing via smartphones, a figure well above the regional average of 28%. The survey findings suggest that social networking activity has a significant impact on consumer behavior and China is an outstanding market with over 70% of consumers utilizing the social media platform to buy, representing the highest rate across the region.

COLUMN

Despite shopping online quite often, consumers in China (average US$26-50 on monthly basis) spend less compared to many other markets (average US$51100 on monthly basis) such as South Korea£¨Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, India and Australia in the region. This could indicate that consumers in China still prefer to purchase big-ticket items in bricks-and-mortar stores because of authenticity issues sometimes associated with the online marketplace.

“Driven by rapid growth in e-commerce in China, retail landscape is changing significantly. Landlords and retailers need to be more digital-savvy, keeping pace with the latest trends in smartphone applications and social media so they can build a stronger relationship with consumers especially those from Generation Z. These digital platforms are two essential mediums of online retailing, which should be integrated into retailers’ omni-channel strategies in order to capture Online-toOffline (O2O) business opportunities,” comments Ivan Poon, President, CBRE China.

Online Shopping Habits in Asia Pacific: Whilst 50% of Asia Pacific consumers still physically visit a shop to make a purchase, findings show that in emerging markets such as China and India, the majority of respondents—76% and 68% respectively—utilize online shopping as their most commonly used method of making purchases. This is also the case in more developed markets of South Korea and Taiwan where 73% and 55% of consumers respectively, also said their primary method of making purchases is online.

Along with convenience, pricing ranks as one of the top reasons why consumers shop online—63% of the total number of respondents surveyed identified this as their key deciding factor. These correspond to the same deciding factors when shopping at physical stores.

The ability to compare products without having to physically visit individual stores is another key factor for the region’s consumers when shopping online. This trend is more prominent in emerging markets such as Vietnam (64%), China (61%) and India (58%) where quality shopping centers or shops are often located far from each other.

Generation Z: Shaping Market Dynamics for Retailer Generation Z is expected to have significant influence over the retail market in the coming years as their income levels are set to increase rapidly upon joining the job market.

“Having spent most of their lives using the internet and other related technology, Generation Z’s demographic of consumers has distinct shopping behaviors in comparison to other demographic segments. Key aspects of their online shopping habits include stronger trust in online information; more activity on social media; and needing a sense of differentiation.

These factors demonstrate the increasingly important role of technology in shaping the decision-making process of consumers,” comments Frank Chen, Executive Director and Head of CBRE Research, China.

In order to remain competitive in the digital age, retailers and landlords need to be proactive in reaching out and engaging with their consumers.

Mobile shopping is most prevalent in emerging markets, and in many places, smartphones are the first—and sometimes only—point of internet access for many consumers, therefore, are playing a key role in driving the growth of online retail. Smartphone apps and social media platforms based on consumers’ shopping history, location and preferences can help personalize their shopping experience.

With around 70% of consumers in Asia Pacific collecting their online orders in-store—and 90% of them purchasing additional items when picking up their online order—click-and-collect services are also an effective way to drive in-store sales, creating a synergy between both online and offline platforms. Landlords should thus collaborate with tenants to help merge their online and offline offering by providing the necessary facilities and regular renovations.

About CBRE Group, Inc. CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBG), a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company headquartered in Los Angeles, is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm (in terms of 2014 revenue). The Company has more than 52,000 employees (excluding affiliates), and serves real estate owners, investors and occupiers through more than 370 offices (excluding affiliates) worldwide. CBRE offers strategic advice and execution for property sales and leasing; corporate services; property, facilities and project management; mortgage banking; appraisal and valuation; development services; investment management; and research and consulting. Please visit our website at www.cbre.com.

China Economic Review | September 2015

43

SER VICED OFFICE

Establish serviced office benchmark with top service Exclusive interview of Cherry Jiang, TEC (The Executive Center) Shanghai Regional Director

F

ounded in 1994, The Executive Centre is Asia Pacific’s leading premium serviced office provider, with 70 centres across 21 major cities in Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan.

The Executive Centre operates only in the most prestigious Grade-A office buildings in the central business districts of every city. In Shanghai, The Executive Centre sets its footprint at Grade-A buildings including Shanghai International Finance Center, 5 Corporate Avenue, K.WahCenter, CITIC

44

China Economic Review | September 2015

Square, The Centre, Xintiandi and Chonghing Finance Center.

‘We always uphold our service philosophy of “Excellent Locations. Excellent Service and Excellent Value’ and have a comprehensive set of criteria on choosing our location, including economic study, industry trend, landlord profile and management level,’ said Cherry Jiang, Regional Director, The Executive Centre Shanghai.

The Executive Centre has just announced its new centre opening in 2016 at Dazhongli project, the latest and most sought-after premium office

location in West Nanjing Road CBD area. ‘In addition to our long-history and trusting relationship, our premium client base is also the reason why the Swire Group choses us,’ continued Cherry.

The Executive Centre has a highquality client base consisted of the leading companies such as HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Apple, Microsoft, Google, IMB, P&G, AstonMartin, Prada, covering finance, technology, manufacturing, consumer and NGOs. At the cutting edge of the serviced office industry, The Executive Cen-

SER VICED OFFICE

tre provides the highest quality of ondemand serviced offices, virtual offices, meeting facilities, video conferencing and a broad range of business concierge services. We operate only in the most prestigious Grade-A office buildings in the central business districts of every city, with a dedication to serving the business interests of multinational corporations, small and medium enterprises, and start-ups locally, regionally and internationally with the most flexible and dynamic workplace solutions.

An increasing number of Chinese domestic companies perceive the serviced office industry as an important platform to enhance their corporate branding image. ‘Just providing the space for companies coming to China was the game between 2000 and 2010.

But the game plan nowadays is to serve the clients that are already in China. Due to the favourable government policies in China and the shifting economy structure, the number of domestic Chinese companies in TEC is increasing dramatically. In China, 50 per cent of our clients are Chinese,’ added Cherry.

The Executive Centre also sets standards when choosing its client base, analysis on the background, industry and the position of the clients ensures The Executive Centre to deliver the premium products and services as it commits.

The Executive Centre as achieved 18% annum compound growth in the last 4 years with 93% client satisfactory and a high client renewal rate.

The average length of a serviced office agreement is 31 months. The pursuing on the most premium products and services allows The Executive Centre to set its benchmark in the industry.

用顶级服务树 服务式办公标杆 专访德事商务中心上海区域总监蒋蕾艳

创

建于1994年的德事商务中心是亚

与此同时，内资企业逐步意识到选择

太区顶级高端服务式办公室领导

显赫的办公地址对于提升企业品牌形象有

品牌。目前有70个商务中心，覆盖亚太区

着非常重要的意义。

包括香港、北京、上海、深圳、广州、澳

蒋蕾艳表示，随着德事商务中心品

门、台北、东京、首尔、新加坡、悉尼等

牌的不断在中国市场的深入，越来越多的

主要的21个城市，致力于以灵活的办公空

中国企业开始选择德事提供的专业高端的

间解决方案。

服务式办公室，以及德事“以智慧取代劳

德事商务中心的选址均位于城中商 务区最显赫的甲A级写字楼。在上海，德

力”的理念。目前内资企业已经占到客户 中约一半。

事所在的商务中心包括国金中心、企业天

德事也会对客户进行一些甄选，根据

地、嘉华中心、中信泰富、世纪商贸、新

企业背景情况、所处行业推荐客户不同区

天地等都是区域内的顶级商务楼宇。

域的服务式办公室，确认客户了解德事的

蒋蕾艳介绍，“最佳地点、最优服 务、最高价值”是德事的核心价值价，区

服务模式，从而进一步提升客户体验并且 也保证了服务品质与水平。

域内最顶级的写字楼是德事的选址标准。

过去四年，德事商务中心复合年增长

在德事完善的选址体系中，未来经济走

率达18%，拥有高达93%的客户满意度和

势、行业变化、写字楼业主的资历和物业

续租率，客户平均租用期为31个月。

管理水品等都成为逐一考量的基本标准。 德事刚刚拿下的大中里项目，同样是 南京西路商圈最新的顶级核心写字楼，该 京西路商圈最新的顶级核心写字楼，该

在如此激烈市场竞争中，德事始终 坚持对高品质的追求，树立了业界“最顶 坚持对高品质的追求，树立了业界 最顶 级”的服务式办公室的“标杆”。

项目预计将在2016年入市。蒋蕾艳透露， 目预计将在2016年入市。蒋蕾艳透露， 开发商太古集团之所以会选择德事合作伙 发 商太古集团之所以会选择德事合作伙 伴，除了长期合作取得的信赖之外，更是 除了长期合作取得的信赖之外，更是 看中了德事卓越的客户群。 中了德事卓越的客户群。 德事商务中心的客户群涵盖金融、 科技、制造业消费品及非政府组织等众多 技 、制造业消费品及非政府组织等众多 领域的顶尖公司，包括汇丰银行、摩根士 域 的顶尖公司，包括汇丰银行、摩根士 丹利、苹果、微软、谷歌、IBM、P&G、 利、苹果、微软、谷歌、IBM、P&G、 阿斯顿马丁、PRADA等均是德事的长期 斯 顿马丁、PRADA等均是德事的长期 客户。 户。 德事提供最高规格、度身定 制的服务式办公室、虚拟办公室服 的 服务式办公室、虚拟办公室服 务、会议设施、视频会议设施，以及 会议设施、视频会议设施，以及 选择多样化的商务行政服务，满足跨 择 多样化的商务行政服务，满足跨 国企业对本地、区域和全球范围办公 企 业对本地、区域和全球范围办公 空间的需求。 间的需求。

Cherry Jiang Shanghai Regional Director

SIP Project Management SIP is the construction project management partner of choice for international and local clients building and expanding within China, providing construction project management services across the entire life cycle of an investment.

Established in 1993, SIP is a wholly British owned project management company and has been focused on construction projects in China for more than 20 years. During that time we have worked with a wide range of clients, from small specialist companies to the world’s most recognised multinational organisations. Our experience and expertise covers many industries and market sectors, with more than 650 projects completed to date. For any project, SIP is your trusted partner of choice. Ŝ Ŝ Ŝ Ŝ Ŝ Ŝ Ŝ Ŝ Ŝ Ŝ

Site selection and due diligence 3URMHFW GHÂżQLWLRQ EXGJHW DQG SURJUDPPH Design and tender management Construction management Post completion services *UHHQ EXLOGLQJ FHUWLÂżFDWLRQ 6XVWDLQDEOH VROXWLRQV DQG UHWURÂżWWLQJ HSE and quality audits Retail roll-out management Tenancy coordination

Building Your Future in China To learn more about SIP contact Seth Jacobs, SIP business development manager, at seth.jacobs@sipgroup.com or visit www.sipgroup.com

Est

1993 In China

Important Issues Affecting Construction In China

5HFHQW FKDQJHV LQ &KLQDÂśV FRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG ODQG XVH UHJXODWLRQV FRXOG GUDPDWLFDOO\ LQĂ€XHQFH investment or risk assessment decisions for both foreign and domestics investors or developers.

Geoff Mills, SIP Founder and Managing Director

Land Use Rights Reduced to 20 Years

Personal Liability for Construction Projects

China has piloted regulations to limit the period of granted land use rights in some areas: the new regulation in Shanghai, namely lj‍ޣ‏ҞŕŁ?á•Şá?•ŃŠâ­˜ŕľ ŕ Şä‡™ă‡‘â¨śâ˛´ă¤•á’˘ăż´ ᇊNJ GLFWDWHV WKDW ODQG XVH ULJKWV JUDQWHG IRU industrial purposes shall not exceed 20 years (previously \HDUV

Another regulation passed last year requires that each RI WKH ÂżYH SDUWLHV LQYROYHG LQ D FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURMHFW PXVW formally appoint an individual to be the Person-In-Charge.

One of the key differences from the previous regulations and one of most important impacts of this new legislation is that it places obligations and liability upon the nominated Person-In-Charge.

Although it is too early to say how this will be implemented in practice, in relation to construction projects, it may accelerate the trend towards build-to-lease investments rather than the more conventional build-to-own.

Build-to-lease arrangements limit investors’ initial capital exposure and provide for a less painful exit route, but at the expense both of longer term operating costs and greater development complexity.

Build-to-own requires a large initial capital investment, and allows the investor full control of the development, however the change in land use rights duration could well DIIHFW RYHUDOO SURÂżWDELOLW\ The changing regulations present further challenges to investors while considering their optimum investment model and highlights the need for business planning and investment option analysis at a very early stage to make WKH ULJKW FKRLFH IRU WKH VSHFLÂżF FLUFXPVWDQFHV LQ &KLQD

7KH ÂżYH SDUWLHV DUH W\SLFDOO\ WKH HPSOR\HU RZQHU WKH JHRWHFKQLFDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQ ÂżUP WKH OLFHQVHG GHVLJQ institute, the project manager appointed by the construction contractor, and the Jianli and each party will need to sign an appointment letter for each Person-In-Charge.

7KHVH ¿YH LQGLYLGXDOV ZLOO VLJQ D TXDOLW\ FRPPLWPHQW letter and assume liability concerning the quality of the project during the whole design life time, even after the termination of the employment or retirement of the individuals, or upon the occurrence of the relevant Party’s de-registration, revocation of business license, dissolution or bankruptcy. The individuals’ liability is an addition to the UHOHYDQW 3DUW\œV OLDELOLW\ ZKLFK LQFOXGHV D ¿QH LQ WKH UDQJH RI a RI WKH ¿QH RQ WKH UHOHYDQW 3DUW\ VXVSHQVLRQ RU UHYRFDWLRQ RI TXDOL¿FDWLRQ SXEOLF DQQRXQFHPHQW RU criminal prosecution.

Operating in China for 22 years, SIP continuously pays close attention to the changes of Chinese construction regulations to help our clients better understand the new regulations and its potential effects on their projects or plans to build or expand within China. Further information on the above issues, and many more available on the news pages of our website. www.sipgroup.com

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

Q & A : K L AU S J E S S E

Getting warm Vaillant, a global leader in the development of high-efficiency heating, cooling and hot water products and solutions, is moving its China HQ to Shanghai to focus on its growth market region

H

eating, cooling and hot water products maker Vaillant, one of the world’s largest producers of consumer home heating units, has decided to move its China headquarters from Beijing to Shanghai to prepare for what expects to be a surge in sales in the coming years that will make China the company’s single biggest market worldwide.

In China, one in every 4 families that set up gas wall-hung boilers uses Vaillant. While Vaillat’s primary manufacturing facility globally is located in Wuxi, to the west of Shanghai.

“We have seen double digital growth every year for the past ten years, and while the first half of this year has seen a slow-down, we see continuing growth in this market, a return to high levels of sales, especially in the main southern cities,” Vaillant’s Klaus Jesse, who in charge of International Sales for the company, said in an interview.

“We originally located our headquarters in Beijing on the expectation that north China would generate the bulk of sales, but we are seeing more growth in the major cities of southern China. So it makes more sense to have our management team in Shanghai and closer to production and to the main market,” he added.

Vaillant, which is based in Remscheid in Germany, is a private familyowned business, but Jesse said it currently has global annual sales of around

China Economic Review | September 2015

€2.33 billion and Europe is currently its biggest market.

“But the rate of growth of sales in much higher here compared to Europe, and that plus the size of the market mean that inevitably China will be our single biggest market before too long,” he said.

Vaillant, founded in 1874 and now operating in over 60 countries around the globe, has for years stressed the environmentally-friendly and energysaving advantages of its products.

“We have been operating in Asia since the 1950s and in fact had a significant business in Hong Kong in that era,” Jesse said. “But then our focus changed and our growth over the past few decades has been primarily in

Europe, including Eastern Europe. Our business in China really started to build about 10 years ago, and has been very strong.”

The key to the expansion of Vaillant’s business in the past decade has been twofold - the explosion of middleclass apartment housing and the expansion of the natural gas network to large areas of China.

“The residential market in China is very important for us and there is big potential for further growth in the years ahead,” Jesse said, adding: “We don’t like markets that are susceptible to bubbles, we don’t like sudden ramp ups of demand. We rather like steady growth, and we see overall that the growth of the middle class in China will allow for

the steady growth of our business in the coming years. China will become our biggest single market.”

Vaillant, he said, viewed the China mainland market for in its products as being around 1.6 million units per year.

“This is a big market and there is room for many players. But technology and German branding are of great help in terms of our building business here in China.”

He said the company sees some Chinese players in the market offering products which are to one extent or another copies of Vaillant products, but doesn’t worry about it too much, with quality and safety being key considerations of buyers. “They are not operating in the same area as we are,” he said.

The expansion of natural gas lines to virtually all of China’s major cities has also been a boon for Vaillant in the past decade.

“Our heaters are mostly powered by natural gas and so basically we have followed the gas lines,” Jesse said. “At this point, just about every major city in China has natural gas, and it is now moving into second and third-tier cities, which of course are themselves as big as major cities in Europe. So we see major potential for the growth of this business in the years ahead.”

He said the key differential between Vaillant’s home market of Germany and the China market was momentum.

“The main difference is just speed, the speed with which change occurs, the speed with which things happen in this market,” Jesse said. “Germany is much more settled with regards to technology, while China has a great willingness to accept new technologies. We are seeing a growing market not only in terms

the fitting of boilers and heaters into new residences but also in the refitting of older residences. When people want to upgrade their living environment it is often heating that they will think of first.”

Jesse said Vaillant’s technology had a significant contribution to make to solve the smog and pollution problem affecting China’s cities.

“The state of the environment is obviously a significant problem, the smog in the cities, and the use of natural gas heaters for home heating is a very important part of the solution,” he said. “I remember driving through East Germany in the days soon o after a te reunifieu cation, and the dominant an nt smell was the smell of the brown coal being b burned to heat houses. Now, if you ou u drive through eastern Germany, that smell has gone.

Everyone has converted d to natural gas heaters. In China, for instance i in Beijing, the smog is bad and nd home heating is the primary cause off that. Of course, there is also the vehicle emissions e which is another issue to be re resolved. esolved. But the political decision to shift ifft home heating over to natural ga gas as will have significant and positive o ositive impact on the smog in n China’s cities.”

A major trend these h ese days in all consumer m er home products is connnectivity and Vaillant is on the trend. “Like other companies we now offer the capability to control our devices remotely. In the past, control of heaters was largely based on timers, but

increasingly it is the use by smartphones to turn on heaters maybe half an hour before you get home.”

The Vaillant Group operates under eight different brands in different parts of the world, with its core business being the development, production and sale of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly products for heat generation on the basis of natural gas and other renewable energy sources. In the wall-hung boiler segment, the Vaillant Group is the global market leader.

Vaillant has manufacturing facilities and R&D centers in 13 plants located in seven European countries and China, its Wuxi iss the ts facility ac ty in Wu t e only o y one o e out of o Europe.

Europe

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

Q & A : K L AU S J E S S E

Klaus Jesse, Director Sales, Marketing & Service Region South & International

ECONOMY

Asia-American consumers are showing bullish buying power Source: Neilson’s Market Research

A

s China and India have replaced Mexico over the last two years as the largest sources of recent U.S. immigrants, and immigration from other Asian countries has increased as well, the importance of understanding the AsianAmerican consumer has never been more critical to marketers across all industries. Furthermore, their status as early adopters with outsized influence on the American mainstream should challenge companies to attune themselves to Asian-American consumers, even if they have not done so in the past.

Builds on recent Nielsen’s market research, The Asian-American Consumer 2015 Report has explored why companies should consider multicultural consumers as a cornerstone of today’s successful marketing strategies. The report provides a pragmatic

THE ASIAN-AMERICAN POPULATION GREW

46%

FROM 2002 TO 2014

thrive in an increasingly multicultural mainstream.

analysis of the fastest growing, most culturally diverse, and most affluent of the multicultural segments, AsianAmericans.

It offers a roadmap to the demographics and buying power of AsianAmerican consumers who share many common cultural traits, but who cluster in specific metro areas and states with different countries of origin.

Marketers and advertisers who seek to understand and activate strategies that best serve the Asian-American consumer should find this report valuable as they seek to increase share and

Keywords: Family-centric; Discriminating shoppers who want and demand the best quality at a good price; Socially empowered and digitally adept; Diverse and culturally confident; Increasingly Ambicultural consumers.

Growth in Numbers: Longevity brings more effective years of buying power With cultural roots derived from a

ASIAN-AMERICAN BUYING POWER EFFECTIVE YEARS OF BUYING POWER NEARLY 4X LARGER THAN THAT OF THE HIGHLY-COVETED U.S. MILLENNIAL SEGMENT.

52.3% 36.7%

LARGER THAN THE ENTIRE ECONOMIES OF ALL BUT 18 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE AND ALL BUT THREE U.S. STATES.

50

China Economic Review | September 2015

ASIAN-AMERICANS NON-HISPANIC WHITES Source: CDC NCHS 2010 Life Expectancy/ACS Median Age

ECONOMY

ASIAN-AMERICAN CONSUMER EXPENDITURE SURVEY

AVERAGE ANNUAL

$61,700 +19% $52,000

EXPENDITURE $22,000 +26% $17,400

HOUSE $9,525 +5%

TRANSPORTATION

FOOD PERSONAL INSURANCE APPAREL CELLULAR PHONE SERVICE FURNITURE

$9,100 $8,000 +19% $6,700 $7,900 $5,600

+41%

$2,150 +28% $1,675 $997 +6% $937 $420 +17% $360 ASIAN-AMERICANS

TOTAL CONSUMERS

% HIGHER

ASIAN-AMERICAN CONSUMERS ARE BUYING FRESH ASIAN-AMERICAN FRESH CATEGORY CONSUMPTION (INDEX VS. TOTAL POPULATION OF 100)

$VOLUME INDEX

PURCHASE FREQUENCY INDEX

FRESH FRUITS

127

111

FRESH MEATS

106

103

PREPARED FOODS

143

115

TAKEOUT

121

102

FRESH VEGETABLES

162

126

FRESH POULTRY

108

103

FRESH SEAFOOD

247

150

Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total Shopper View, 52 weeks ending Q4 2014

rich tapestry of more than 40 different homelands, and with economic influence far greater than its burgeoning U.S. population statistics would suggest, the Asian-American consumers are confidently making a powerful impact on today’s new American mainstream. Currently at 19.4 million strong, the Asian-American population grew 46% from 2002 to 2014, mak-

ing it the fastest-growing multicultural segment in the U.S., and is expected to grow 150% between now and 2050.

China and India have now replaced Mexico as the largest source of recent immigrants to the United States.

Asian-American buying power was $770 billion and is expected to increase to $1 trillion by 2018. The 180% gain from 200 through 2014 nearly triples

the increase in buying power projected for non-Hispanic whites (69%) over the same period.

The life expectancy of Asian-Americans (87.3 years) is the highest of any multicultural segment in the U.S. and higher than that of non-Hispanic whites (78.7). This statistic, compounded by a lower median age for Asian-Americans (35) than for nonHispanic whites (42), results in substantially greater effective years of buying power for Asian-Americans (52.3) than for non-Hispanic whites (36.7).

When planning long-term marketing strategies, this additional 16 years of buying power should be a true advantage if loyalty can be established at an early age.

Asian-American consumer expenditures The Asian-American consumer market is distinctive in many key respects.

China Economic Review | September 2015

51

ECONOMY

3 IN 10

NEARLY THREE-IN-10 ASIANAMERICANS (28%) LIVE IN A MULTIGENERATIONAL HOUSEHOLD VS. ONE-IN-TEN FOR NON-HISPANIC WHITES

AMOUNT SPENT PER STORE VISIT ON CONSUMER PACKAGED GOODS $46

ADULT BEVERAGES

$39 $38

HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS

$32 $39

HEALTH & BEAUTY AIDS

$30 $29 $26

OVER-THE-COUNTER MEDICATIONS ASIAN-AMERICANS

TOTAL CONSUMERS

Source: Nielsen Share Of Wallet Survey, November 2014

HEALTH & BEAUTY DEPARTMENT ($ VOLUME INDEX VS. TOTAL POPULATION OF 100) SKIN CARE PREPARATIONS

170

FAMILY PLANNING

139

BABY NEEDS

131

SANITARY PROTECTION

128

WOMEN’S FRAGRANCES

125

ORAL HYGIENE

122

HAIR CARE

115

PERSONAL SOAP & BATH ADDITIVES

112

COSMETICS

107

VITAMINS

106

Source: Nielsen Homescan Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending February 7, 2015

52

China Economic Review | September 2015

It is more concentrated in certain areas of spend such as housing, education, transportation, and food spending, than all other groups. The three categories where Asian-Americans outspend total consumers by the highest percentage are personal insurance, apparel, and housing. Higher personal insurance spending is likely attributed to a strong desire to protect assets and family while higher apparel spending aligns with a strong loyalty to brand names further detailed in this report. Higher housing expenditures may be driven by the need for more space given the larger household size of Asian-American households compared to the general population (3.1 vs. 2.7) and by the clustering of many Asian-Americans in metro areas where housing prices may command a higher cost.

The journey from inner to outer well being: A fresh perspective on food Asian cultural traditions permeate every aspect of Asian-Americans’ lives, beginning with a person’s mental and spiritual balance, to one’s sense of personal health and beauty, and further extending outward to immediate family, friends, acquaintances and civic and social engagements. Brands that speak

ECONOMY

to the holistic dimension of Asian traditions are likely to develop a deeper, more meaningful relationship with both traditional Asian consumers and Asian-American consumers, who want products and services that reflect and complement dual lifestyles that engage with both their native culture and the American mainstream.

By contrast, 23% Asian-Americans are more likely to evaluate the nutrition on menu items. 31% are more likely to eat organic foods and 22% are less likely to allow junk food in the home.

Home is the heart of consumption Asian-Americans households spend more than their average share on many grocery categories. The highest-indexing categories are Asian noodles, dried vegetables and grains and meal starters, which can be used to supplement fresh ingredients for a quickly make

home-cooked meal. Other over-indexing categories associated with cookingfrom-scratch ingredients include fresh produce, dried fruit, eggs and shortening/oils. Not only are healthy food items popular among Asian-Americans, but they spend more than their average share on kitchen appliances and gadgets used for cooking, as well as on wine, suggesting a high propensity to prepare and entertain their family and friends. With higher birth rates than average U.S. households, AsianAmerican households spend more on disposable diapers and baby food, as well as on photographic supplies and school supplies needed for growing families.

The ties that bind are multigenerational Multigenerational living, with grandparents, parents and children living in one household, is very often a strategy

used to employ economies of scale in coping with the challenges of moving to a new country. Nearly three-in-10 Asian-Americans (28%) live in a multigenerational household, compared with just 15% of non-Hispanic whites.

This high-percentage of adult immigrants within the Asian-American population, coupled with the fact that Asian-American children are highly likely (85%) to live in a household with married parents and remain in that household until married themselves. Therefore, the food-shopping list of an Asian-American multigenerational family can be extremely diverse, as age, health, and dietary habits need to be considered for three generations.

Asian-American consumers make roughly the same number of trips to grocery stores as the general population, but they spend a smaller percentage of their total dollars in them. In

China Economic Review | September 2015

53

ECONOMY

ASIAN-AMERICANS SHOP MORE AT WAREHOUSE SHARE OF DOLLAR VOLUME %

OUTLET OCCASIONS % ASIAN AMERICANS

TOTAL CONSUMERS

ASIAN AMERICANS

TOTAL CONSUMERS

GROCERY STORE

45%

44%

38%

44%

MASS MERCHANDISER

17%

21%

20%

27%

WAREHOUSE CLUB

11%

5%

23%

11%

DRUG STORE

10%

7%

6%

4%

DOLLAR STOR

3%

7%

1%

3%

CONVENIENCE STORE

1%

3%

1%

2%

RETAIL CHANNEL

A preference for plastic over paper

Source: Nielsen Homescan Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending February 7, 2015

FINANCIAL PRODUCTS OWNED 81%

80% 67%

66%

66%

60%

56% 49%

40% 33%

29%

53% 45%

16%

INDIVIDUAL JOINT INDIVIDUAL JOINT PREPAID CREDIT CREDIT DEBIT ACCOUNT CARD CARD CARD CARD DEBIT CARD ASIAN-AMERICANS

73% 62%

29% 21%

STORE CARD

LOYALTY INDIVIDUAL JOINT CARD CHECKING CHECKING ACCOUNT ACCOUNT

TOTAL CONSUMERS

Source: Nielsen Share Of Wallet Survey, November 2014

ANNUAL NUMBER OF TRAVEL PURCHASES HOTELS 2.0 1.4

CRUISE LINES 0.3 0.1

AUTO RENTALS 0.9 0.5

AIRLINES 1.8 0.9

ASIAN-AMERICANS TOTAL CONSUMERS Source: Nielsen Share Of Wallet Survey, November 2014

54

China Economic Review | September 2015

and 7% more on cosmetic. Personal care is important for maintaining health on the inside, as Asian-Americans spend 22% more on oral hygiene, 28% more on sanitary protection, and 6% more on vitamins.

fact, a greater share of Asian-Americans shop at warehouse clubs (11%) than the general population (5%), and they spend a significantly higher percentage there, too (23%, as opposed to 11%). Drugstores also get a higher share of Asian-Americans’ outlet occasions and dollar volume.

Beauty is more than skin deep Many Asian-American women believe that if they are healthy on the inside, they will be beautiful on the outside.

In fact, Asian-Americans spend 70% more than their average share on skincare preparation products, 25% more on fragrances, 15% more on hair care, 12% more on personal soap and bath,

Asian-American consumers are strong users of all financial instruments compared with the general population and all other multicultural groups. They particularly stand out in the use of credit cards, with 88% of Asian-Americans owning a credit card, versus only 66% for the general population. That said, while Asian-American consumers own many financial instruments, they are less likely than other consumers to say they used debit cards and checks over the past 30 days. A preference for credit cards may possibly be due to the rewards and benefits derived from their use. Asian-Americans’ participation in credit card rewards programs far outpaces that of the general population, particularly in miles-rewards programs, for which Asian-Americans outpace the general population by a ratio of more than two to one.

Asian-Americans make more travel purchases on an annual basis than the total population. 82% of Asian-Americans use a credit card to pay for these flights, which is 11% higher than for the general population. Retail shopping behaviors also reflect the propensity among Asian-American consumers to use credit cards. Even when dining at fast-food or quick-serve restaurants, where it is common to pay with cash, Asian-Americans’ most frequent payment method is the credit card.

理财

美国市场看涨亚裔消费者 潜力 文章及图表来源：尼尔森市场研究

过

去的30多年里，随着越来越多的中

亚裔美国人增长了

国家庭移民美国，以及使用各类方

法令子女获得美国国籍后，亚裔美国人已

46%

不再是少数群体，他们逐渐在美国形成独 特的风景线；从人口数量、消费特征、购 买力、数字互联网偏好等各维度，呈现出

(2002年至2014年间)

与传统美国人不一样的特征，东方文化的 传承也为这个群体注入“东方特色”，让 一切变得有趣而珍贵。 东西方文化交融和消费市场的相互渗

“文化传承”、“从自我到社交化的个体

之下，非西班牙裔白人的消费力增长仅为

转变”、“双重文化”。

69%。

压倒性人数增长 长寿也被揣摩为“有效购买力”

区隔于其它美国人的又一重要特征（非西

透，印证了早已被提出的全球化进程的论 调。而融入不同市场的外来人口，对于本 地市场的影响和冲击，以及反应出的源文

亚裔美国人87.3岁的平均寿命，是

化的差异和变化趋势，都是消费者研究里

班牙裔白人的平均寿命仅为78.7岁），剔

虽然美国是全世界最大的民族交融国

除掉无效购买年份，亚裔美国人的平均有

家，40多个国家与区域的移民为这个国土

效购买年数（52.3年）比非西班牙裔白人

尼尔森最新发布的《2015亚裔美国

贡献着多元的文化融合；但亚裔美国人于

（36.7年）长16年之多。品牌若能在这个

消费者报告》，从亚裔美国消费者的消费

2002年-2014年间增长了46%，可预见

人群构建有效忠诚度，无论从短期还是长

现状、对高科技数字世界的偏好、以及未

的是从现在到2050年人数增长速度将高达

期都将是带来高回报的增长点。

来人数与购买力增长等数个角度，为读者

150%。其中，中国和印度是亚裔美国人

呈现了这类典型而生动的双文化融合的消

最重要的2个群体组成。2014年亚裔美国

费者形象。

人的购买消费为7700亿美元，而预计在

再看亚裔美国人的消费分布，与本土

亚裔消费者关键词：“家庭中心”、

2018年会增长为1万亿。其购买力实质上

美国居民有着显著区别。通常而言，他们

“精明”、“偏好数字技术和社交”、

从2000年-2014年间增长了180%，相比

的财富水平高于美国家庭平均水平，住

非常有趣的纽带。

他们在美国也热衷买房

亚裔美国人购买力

与千禧年相比增长

平均有效购买年数

52.3%

四倍 购买力仅次于 18个国家

36.7% 亚裔美国人 非拉丁裔白人 Source: CDC NCHS 2010 Life Expectancy/ACS Median Age

China Economic Review | September 2015

55

理财

近十分之三 (28%) 的亚裔美国人与 祖辈、父辈和孩子生活在同一屋檐 下，而在非拉丁裔白人中这一比例

3 IN 10

为十分之一。

亚裔美国人消费支出调查 $61,700 +19%

平均年度支出

$52,000 $22,000 +26% $17,400 $9,525 +5% $9,100 $8,000 +19% $6,700 $7,900 +41% $5,600 $2,150 +28% $1,675 $997 +6% $937

住房 交通 食品 个人保险 服装 移动电话

亚裔美国人

与他们建立起深厚而有意义的关联。 相比较而言，更多的亚裔美国人 （+23%）更愿意评估食物成分构成里的 营养元素，食用有机食物（+31%），而 更少比例的人愿意（-22%）采购垃圾食 物。

家庭是消费的重心

$420 +17% $360

家具

品和服务带来的双重文化的满足，则更能

亚裔美国人的家庭花销高于平均水 消费者总额

高出百分比

平，其中，亚洲面条，干菜、谷物等可以 与新鲜食物结合制作便捷的家庭餐食的食 品最受欢迎；此外，新鲜元素，干果、鸡

亚裔美国消费者对健康食品的高诉求

蛋等也备受欢迎。除了健康食物外，厨房 家电、红酒的花销也高于平均水平，他们

金额 （美金）

购买频率

水果

127

111

肉类

106

103

半成品

143

115

外卖

121

102

蔬菜

162

126

家禽

108

103

辈和孩子们同在屋檐下的比例高达28%，

海鲜

247

150

而非西班牙裔白人的这种比例仅为15%。

亚裔美国人健康食品消费

Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total Shopper View, 52 weeks ending Q4 2014

更愿意在家里与家人和朋友娱乐；而一次 性尿片和婴儿食品以及相机设备和学校用 品同样受欢迎。

三世同堂的家庭环境 相比本土美国人，亚裔美国消费者更 可能生长于三世同堂的环境中，祖辈、父

85%的亚裔美国人的孩子与他们的父母居 住在一起，有的甚至在自己结婚后还维持

房、交通、食品是消费最集中的三个领 域；其中，个人理财、鞋服、住房的平均

56

内在幸福向外在幸福的转变 健康食品诉求高

这种现状。因而，他们的食品清单更加丰 富，以满足不同年龄、健康状况和饮食习

年消费相比全国平均水平分别高出41%、

东方文化影响着亚裔消费者生活的方

28%、26%；他们有更强烈的使资产保值

方面面，从精神的诉求，到个人健康与美

尽管在日常杂货店购物的比例与整体

增值的意愿，在鞋服上对品牌更推崇，忠

容、家庭、熟人、城市以及社交的外在需

消费者的比例持平，但他们在此的支出更

诚度更高，住房上因更多家庭人口和临近

求。品牌如果能全方面融合亚洲传统与美

少；选择去批发店购物的比例高于整体水

交通居住的偏好而花费更多。

国主流，让亚裔美国消费者能够感受到产

平（11% V.S 5%）,在那的支出也相应更

China Economic Review | September 2015

惯的需求。

理财

包装类消费品支出

健康美容门类

饮品

护肤品

$46

170

$39

日用品

$38

计划生育

$32 $39

健康美容用品

婴儿用品

131

卫生用品

128

女式香水

125

口腔卫生用品

122

$30 $29 $26

非处方药品

139

总消费者

亚裔美国消费者 Source: Nielsen Share Of Wallet Survey, November 2014

金融产品持有 81%

80% 67%

66%

66%

60%

56%

62%

联名 信用卡

亚裔美国消费者

个人 借记卡

112

化妆品

107

维他命

106

29% 21%

个人 信用卡

沐浴用品 45%

40% 29%

115

53%

49% 33%

护发用品 73%

联名 借记卡

16%

预付费卡

商店 专用卡

积分卡

总消费者

个人 活期 存款

联名 活期 存款

Source: Nielsen Homescan Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending February 7, 2015

Source: Nielsen Share Of Wallet Survey, November 2014

旅行消费年度支出

亚裔美国人选择仓储式批发店购物的比例更高 光顾频率 亚裔美国 消费者

零售渠道

金额支出（美元）

总消费者

亚裔美国 消费者

总消费者

酒店 2.0

杂货店

45%

44%

38%

44%

大型市场

17%

21%

20%

27%

仓储式批发店

11%

5%

23%

11%

药房

10%

7%

6%

4%

一美元店

3%

7%

1%

3%

便利店

1%

3%

1%

2%

Source: Nielsen Homescan Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending February 7, 2015

1.4

邮轮 0.3 0.1

汽车租赁 0.9 0.5

航空 1.8

高（23% V.S 11%）；药店也是他们常光

（+22%）、卫生用品（+28%）以及维他

顾和花销的地方。

命（+6%）等品类上也消费更多。

美容不只停留在护肤层面

更愿意使用信用卡而非现金

0.9

亚裔美国消费者 总消费 Source: Nielsen Share Of Wallet Survey, November 2014

很多亚洲人认为如果内里健康了，

亚裔消费者是金融工具的忠实粉丝，

外在也就随之更美。除了在美容护肤化妆

尤其是在信用卡的使用上。80%的亚裔消

上花费功夫（护肤品的消费高出平均水平

费者拥有信用卡，而平均比例为66%，他

且82%的亚裔消费者使用信用卡支付旅游

70%，香水高出25%，护发品高出15%，

们对信用卡积分以及活动项目的热衷高于

费用，高出平均水平11%。此外，他们在

个人洗漱用品高出12%，化妆品高出

普通消费者。

零售购物、外出就餐等消费上使用信用卡

7%），他们相比一般美国人，在口腔卫生

他们在旅游消费上高于平均水平，而

的比例也非常高。

China Economic Review | September 2015

57

FEATURE STORY

The dawn of a new era for WGC-HSBC Champions

T

he next global gathering of the elite of men’s golf will be the final World Golf Championships (WGC) of the season – the HSBC Champions. This year marks the 11th staging of the tournament known as ‘Asia’s Major,’ after a decade of unprecedented golf development in China. As the fourth and final WGC event of the season, the HSBC Champions is a key component of both the European Tour’s final series and the start of the US PGA Tour 2016 season.

58

China Economic Review | September 2015

The success of the WGC-HSBC Champions is very much down to the whole-hearted support of the tournament by the world’s best golfers. This year’s WGC-HSBC Champions has coincided with what many consider to be a changing of the guard in the world game. Seemingly some of the more familiar faces are now making way for the next generation, with the crop of younger golfers tasting success in both the Majors and the World Golf Championships.

No one embodies that theory more than the popular young American, Rickie Fowler. The 26-year old explained, “The game is now in a great position with the amount of young players that are playing well with Rory McIlroy being the prime leader of that group along with Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed. Players like Tiger Woods, Phil Mickleson and Ernie Els have done a great job of paving the way and giving us the opportunity to play around the world and have an impact.”

FEATURE STORY

Rickie Fowler is just one of the many players who have enjoyed competing at the Sheshan International Golf Club.

Fowler added, “The WGC-HSBC Champions is definitely one of the strongest fields we play throughout the year, it’s a great event that typically yields a strong champion at the end of the week. I am excited to go back and tee it up against the world best players.”

2013 U.S Open winner Justin Rose is also an admirer of the only WGC event outside the US. With the HSBC Champions elevated to a World Golf Championships event in 2009, the Englishman thinks it has truly established its position in the golf calendar and that the tournament undoubtedly enjoys the respect it deserves.

In a country where hosting top class golf tournaments is still a relatively recent thing, the fan’s delight is clear when the world’s top names come to town.

Rose explained, “It is such a growing game in Asia and especially in China, where there seems to be a lot of excitement amongst the fans. They want to make the most out of their experience and try to capture as many memories and moments as they can.”

2012 winner Ian Poulter and China’s Liang Wen-chong are the only two players to have played in every HSBC Champions since the inaugural edition in 2005. They have both witnessed the growth of golf in China for the past decade and felt the impact of the HSBC Champions.

“In the past ten years, HSBC has done an impressive job of bringing the best players from around the world to compete in China, which has definitely helped the growth of golf in the coun-

try. Their continued support is going to help the youngsters in China to become bigger and better,” said Poulter, the former HSBC Champions winner.

Liang also believes that there has been advanced development of the game in the country since golf started to attract attention in China three decades ago, he commented: “There were really limited tournaments, not to mention international ones. Golf has taken off recently, thanks especially to the HSBC Champions. The past decade has witness a continuous growth of the HSBC Champions event,

with an increasing amount of world class players coming and youngsters participating from China. This event exerts an edifying influence on both golf players and fans, which greatly promotes the national golf development.”

Since its inception, the WGC-HSBC Champions has established itself as a premium event in global golf, Asia’s Major and more. This year promises another great celebration of the growth of golf in this part of the world as the best players in the game tee it up in Shanghai at the Sheshan International Golf Club on 5-8 November.

China Economic Review | September 2015

59

专题

世锦赛—汇丰冠军赛 迎来新曙 全

球男子高尔夫精英选手将于11月齐 聚上海，竞逐年度最后一场世界高

尔夫锦标赛—汇丰冠军赛。这项赛事将 于今年迈入第十一个年头，过去十年汇丰 冠军赛被誉为“亚洲的大满贯”，见证了 中国高尔夫运动的空前发展。作为年度第 四场也是最后一场世锦赛，汇丰冠军赛既 是欧巡赛收官系列赛中的关键一站，同时 也标志着美巡赛2016赛季的开始。 世界优秀球员的全力支持是世锦赛汇丰冠军赛不断取得成功的要素。业界普 遍认为今年是全球高尔夫球届新老接替的 时刻，汇丰冠军赛的举行适逢交接之际。 一些观众熟悉的面孔正让位于年轻的选 手，新生代球星在大满贯赛事和世锦赛赛

斯也是这场唯一不在美国举办的世锦赛的

这无疑极大地推动了高尔夫球在中国的发

事中屡获殊荣。

推崇者。随着2009年汇丰冠军赛正式升级

展。汇丰银行的长期支持将使中国的年轻

里奇-福勒无疑是这一理论的最佳体

为世界高尔夫锦标赛，这位英国选手认为

球手群体日益壮大，竞技水平也将越来越

现，这位年仅26岁美国选手表示：“大量

这场赛事已经奠定了自己在全球高尔夫球

高。”伊恩-保尔特说道。

优秀年轻球员的涌现使高尔夫运动的发展

届的重要地位，成为世锦赛是实至名归。 在中国这样一个举办世界顶级高尔夫

夫变化巨大，他也道出了一些自己的想法

出代表，与乔丹-斯皮思、帕特里克-瑞

赛事历史还相对短暂的国家，世锦赛-汇丰

和感受，“回顾过去，高尔夫赛事数量有

德一起为世界高坛带来新气象。而像泰

冠军赛的到来，自然令球迷们的喜悦之情

限，更不用提国际赛事了。近年来高尔夫

格-伍兹、菲尔-米克尔森和恩尼-艾斯这

溢于言表。

运动慢慢崛起，要特别感谢汇丰冠军赛。

样的中间力量以他们的号召力成就了年轻

贾斯汀-罗斯说：“在亚洲，尤其是

过去的十年我亲眼目睹了汇丰冠军赛的成

一代的进取之路，并给予我们很多提携和

中国，高尔夫球是一项正在发展壮大的运

长，越来越多的世界级选手来到中国，我

帮助，让我们可以站在世界的赛场上有所

动，球迷们也很热情。他们会尽全力地去

们也不断有年轻的中国球手入围，这项比

作为。”

经历、去体验，并努力捕捉精彩片刻以留

赛对许多球员和球队带来诸多启发，极大

下回忆。”

地推动了中国高尔夫运动的发展。”

有机会在佘山国际高尔夫俱乐部与世 界高球精英一争上下，里奇-福勒只是众多 优秀选手之一。

2012年汇丰冠军赛冠军伊恩-保尔特

自创办之初，世锦赛-汇丰冠军赛便

和中国球员梁文冲是仅有的两位自2005年

是全球高尔夫界之盛事、亚洲的大满贯，

福勒补充到：“世锦赛-汇丰冠军赛

开赛以来每年都参赛的选手，他们共同见

影响深远。2015汇丰冠军赛将不仅是一场

绝对是这一年中球员阵容最强的赛事之

证了过去十年中国高尔夫的发展，并且深

精彩非凡的高尔夫赛事，更是一场世界高

一，这项出色的比赛总是会产生出色的冠

切感受到汇丰冠军赛为中国高尔夫所带来

尔夫明星的璀璨亮相。现在开始，我们为

军。可以再度征战汇丰冠军赛，和世界优

的影响。

下一个十年神话的开启喝彩，11月5日至8

秀的选手一决高下让我觉得兴奋。” 2013年美国公开赛冠军赛贾斯汀-罗

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梁文冲也相信过去三十年中国高尔

出现契机，麦克罗伊做为新生代选手的杰

China Economic Review | September 2015

“在过去十年里，汇丰银行成功地 将全球最优秀的球员吸引到中国参赛，

日一同在上海在佘山高尔夫俱乐部见证新 一届冠军的诞生。

ECONOMY

Fishy business China’s ravenous hunger for fish has spurred incredible industry inefficiencies

J

apan, an island nation that can seem more coast than anything else, is known in the West for its yen for sushi—an affinity that has spread to the United States and the rest of the world. But in the last two decades it is Japan’s far more land-locked neighbor and regional rival that has begun upending the oceans to satisfy its citizens’ hunger for fish.

“China is currently the world’s largest consumer of fish, accounting for one-quarter of global fish demand, and its fish consumption continues to rise with its burgeoning middleincome class,” said Zhang Wenbo, who conducted the research for an international study on the China’s impact on world fish supplies published in

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China Economic Review | September 2015

the magazine Science this year while completing his PhD at the aquaculture institute of the University of Stirling, Scotland.

In the paper, Zhang and other researchers write that fishing in China’s coastal waters is badly regulated and sloppily done, such that large amounts of inedible or undesirable fish end up in animal feeds, some of it fed to farm-raised fish, which make up the vast majority of China’s annual aquaculture output. The inclusion of such “trash fish” requires far greater harvests to supplement what is now the largest domestic fish-farming operation in the world.

These and other wasteful practices have set China’s diners on a collision

course with aquatic populations of every stripe both at home and abroad.

But the solution to this insatiable demand, according to Zhang and his co-authors, may lie in the fish-farming by-products currently being labeled as waste and dumped en masse into China’s waters.

Better out than in China is the world’s single largest market for seafood, one that has grown rapidly over the two decades leading up to 2010, at an annual rate of 6% for a per capita consumption of 33.1 kg (72.9 lbs). That gives the country’s per capita pork consumption (39 kg last year) a run for its money, and is more than double the annual per capita fish

ECONOMY

supply in the rest of the world (15.4 kg) according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. And while China accounted for 30% of global fish consumption when the bank’s report was published, according to its baseline prediction model the country will account for 38% by 2030.

That growth has shown no signs of slowing since that prediction was made. In 2012 China became the world’s largest seafood market, and in 2013 it imported US$8.4 billion worth of fish and seafood for an annual increase of 8.9%, according to Canada’s agriculture ministry.

Fresh fish imports alone weighed in at 36.6 million tons that year, provided by a wide variety of countries: Russia (17.8%), the United States (15.3%), Peru (12.1%), Chile (5.3%) and Norway (5.1%) accounted for the largest shares. Imports were dominated by fish meal and flour (US$1.7 billion) for use in animal feed, frozen Alaska pollock (US$883.6 million) – popular in everything from fillets and fast food to fish sticks and imitation crab – and frozen fish (US$465.5 million).

But China is also, at least for now, the world’s largest exporter of fish, which in 2013 ran in dollar value to well more than double its imports at US$19.7 billion, an increase of 6.9% over the previous year. Top exports included frozen cuttlefish and squid (US$1.6 billion), frozen shrimp and prawns (US$1.2 billion) and frozen fish (US$1 billion); top destinations were Japan (19.3%), the US (15.9%) and Hong Kong (11.6%). These figures reflect the massive growth of China’s domestic aquaculture—fish farming.

Small-fry farming China has been responsible for the majority of growth in global fish production in recent years, most of it from aquaculture, which began to boom shortly after the beginning of economic reforms in the early 1980s. In 1979, China’s aquaculture production totaled 1.23 million tons, and in 2003 it reached 30.28 million tons, growing from 29% to 64.33% of total fish consumed during the same period and replacing capture as the major source of fish production in China. In 2012, the latest year for which FAO data is available, aquaculture production hit 42.88 million tons.

But just as important as how many is how they are produced, and by whom. Inland freshwater aquaculture has long held a far larger portion of total production compared to saltwater farms, and grew from from 58.6% of the total in 2003 to 61.6% at last count in 2012. But as in much of mainland agriculture, small, individually-owned farms still predominate.

Small-scale pond farming remains essentially unchallenged as the primary source for freshwater fish, dropping only slightly from 70.54% in 2003 to 70.19% in 2010. In the latter year, larger-scale farming in lakes and reservoirs totaled just 18.69% of the total catch.

While most freshwater farmers culture more than one species, the typical scale of operations remains small: While the number of fish cages at Asian farms ranged from 2 to 590 in a recent FAO survey, Chinese farms averaged only 53.

Chum in, chum out These and other inefficiencies increase

input costs and limit the output of domestic farming and increase the burden on wild populations. Zhang said he and his co-authors discovered that domestic consumption trends appeared to foreshadow “a major shift in China’s trade position in fish products, from the world’s leading fish exporter to a net importer in the coming decades.”

Indeed, they note, China is wellprepared for such an eventuality: It operates the world’s largest international fishing fleet, with vessels spread over 80 countries’ economic zones and other foreign territories. As highquality fishmeal comes into greater demand, Chinese companies will begin to take advantage of oceanic areas where higher-nutrient fish congregate—the fishing rights to which they have been snapping up in recent years.

That would push other countries to trawl for a greater quantity of trash fish to make up for the dearth.

Instead, Zhang and co. suggest recycling the waste by-products from seafood processing plants across China: Discarded material from global fish processing are estimated to total roughly 20 million metric tons annually, equal in weight to more than a quarter of the world’s total marine catch.

This “waste” can account for 30-70% of fish shipments by volume and is often discharged into nearby rivers, lakes and bays. But by the researchers’ reckoning said processing waste could satisfy between half and two-thirds of the current volume of fishmeal used by Chinese fish farmers. That would mean fewer wild fish hauled in, making for a more sustainable industry in the long run.

China Economic Review | September 2015

63

ECONOMY

Paper trail Slashing China’s paper mill oversupply won’t give those left a license to print money

C

hina’s paper producers might be having a tough time under the country’s new environmental laws, but they aren’t keen to talk about it. When asked how the paper industry has been faring under new and more stringent anti-pollution regulations introduced this year, over a dozen paper manufacturers declined to say so much as a word. Only one even consented to looking at a list of questions before doing an interview—then stopped responding altogether once he got them.

For those working in the papermaking industry, media coverage has rarely been positive in recent years as more information has come to light about the damage done to China’s environment by its countless small-

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China Economic Review | September 2015

scale paper mills. But a new national environmental protection law enacted this year together with unprecedented strict regulations from the central government introduced in April have put the squeeze on an overcapacity industry whose profit margins are razorthin already. That is likely on purpose, said Debra Tan, director of the Hong Kong-based nonprofit, China Water Risk.

Tan said the April plan makes it very clear that the central government is focused on tackling industries that are energy- and water-intensive as well as heavy polluters. She said based on the list of targeted sectors – which ranks paper mills in its top tier – “they’re well aware of what industries those are.”

Bulk business China was the biggest annual consumer of paper products in 2013 at 24.4% of global consumption, according to the latest available edition of the China Paper Industry Almanac. Stats from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations from that year also show that China was the world’s leading producer at 26.6%. According to the latest figures from the China Paper Association, 72.9% of the industry’s total production volume comes from just eight administrative districts, mostly along the more-developed coast: Shandong, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Hebei, Hainan and Tianjin.

In absolute terms, China’s domestic consumption of paper products bal-

ECONOMY

looned from 36.8 million tons in 2001 to 97.8 million tons in 2013, according to the industry group China Paper Association; production for the same period rose from 32 million tons to 101.1 million tons. Production didn’t catch up with consumption until 2007, but consumption seems to have peaked in 2012.

Peaking demand and a stable low global price of paper – about US$191, according to business data provider IBISWorld - hasn’t stopped mills from churning out more of the stuff, though.

Estimates from the World Business Council for Sustainable Development expect China’s paper output to increase by 67% from 2010 to 2025. And while the gross value of both industrial output and revenue for the paper sector in China have been increasing in recent years, manufacturers’ profit margins have decreased as a result of raw materials’ high cost and competitive global prices, according to a 2014 analysis of mainland China’s paper industry by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Yet despite its size, China’s paper sector is not dominated by industrial leaders with a firm hold on the highest-value products. China Paper Association statistics record roughly 2,934 paper manufacturers on the mainland, 82% of which are smaller-scale factory outfits. In 2013 the top producer, Nine Dragons Paper, accounted for 11% of total production volume, and together it and the next four largest manufacturers – Lee & Man, Shandong Chenming, Shandong Sun and Huatai Group – accounted for only 25.8% of China’s annual total production.

Papered-over pollution Among the more positive environ-

mental developments this year for water resources has been the National Development and Reform Commission’s (NDRC) announcement of new water pollution policies. Unfortunately for China’s paper makers, it specifically targets paper mills, as well as chemical plants and textile factories. The outsize amount of waste discharged by these industries has made them an obvious target for policymakers.

But where previous ambitious antipollution plans in 2003 and 2011 that targeted paper mills often fell short thanks to vague implementation plans, the new NDRC regulations actually create a policy platform that ties many other policies together in an unusually cohesive and explicit way. While most national or regional government policy in mainland China is left intentionally vague, the new plan seems to leave no such loopholes, introducing 26 specific requirements for improvement and 238 mandatory measures, with each one accompanied by a list of responsible ministries.

From an environmental perspective, there is good reason to target paper mills. According to a report from China Water Risk, the paper industry’s waste water discharge accounts for 10-12% of mainland China’s total—topmost among all industries. The report also cites Zhao Wei, Secretary-General of the China Paper Association, as saying that of China’s almost 3,500 paper mills, the number of small mills was around 3,100, with medium and large making up the remainder. Zhao said large mills contribute 80% of total production, “but account for less than a third of the industry’s pollutant discharge.”

The health hazards are enormous as well, with the number of reported con-

flicts arising over toxic dumping from paper mills having risen in recent years.

In one typical case, locals from the city of Weifan in Shandong province accused nearby paper mills of pumping industrial waste into the city’s water supply, sending cancer rates soaring.

One country’s trash...

Yet even if many of China’s small plants are closing, it seems unlikely that prices inside the country will rise by any substantial amount. In addition to steady international prices for paper, China’s recycling rate has grown substantially in recent years, reaching about 44.5% in 2012, according to the HKEx report.

That’s still far below the developednation average of 60%, though, which points to a limited domestic supply of waste paper.

As a result, China’s imports of waste paper have risen dramatically, from about 17 million tons in 2005 to more than 30 million tons in 2012, the latest year for which the statistics department of the Hong Kong government has provided figures. Globally, almost 40% of recovered paper is exported from the US, of which Chinese imports account for 70%. And while prices spiked in 2011, a slowdown in demand which began in late 2013 has since pulled them back down.

In light of the Chinese paper’s industry’s chronic oversupply of both product and pollution, there appears to be little economic downside to culling the worst of an overpopulous herd— and little chance of an uproar from the public should the latest drive succeed. Indeed, about the only ones who might mind if the sector gets slashed and burned are the paper makers themselves. But they aren’t talking.

China Economic Review | September 2015

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话题

微商朋友圈生意告急 从朋友圈刷屏创造销售神话，到好友避而远之，再到被屏蔽拉黑，微商商业模式在假货和假帐号的 包围中不得不寻找新的突破路径。

往，微商沿用传统代理模式，一级

以

是分级提成，商家的提成机制是透明的，

之以更利于行业健康发展、品牌长远发展

代理拿到货后再招二级代理、三级

代理也几乎不需要付出任何成本。”拍拍

的微商模式，逐步改变了目前主流微商的

代理，一级一级地向下压货。当货在最后

小店细化了代理的关系，一方面是针对个

运作模式。

一个层级的人手里库存积压得越来越多，

体消费者，只要动手将商品转发到朋友

据广州微商市场的一位专业人士张

就像近日股市大跌一样，个体微商出货也

圈，有购买就可以获得佣金；另一方面是

先生介绍，目前微商运作模式主要有以下

越来越难。在意识到这种“滚雪球”的危

面向商家，商家可以挑选合适的商品直接

几种。一是多层级代理制微商，这是将传

机后，一些品牌微商开始转型。

上架到自己的店铺，发货、售后则统统由

统线下招商模式搬上互联网的典型做法。

供货商负责。

多层级代理产品流转路线主要从大区、总

自由选择代理品牌

微商需要同时思考的是以货为基础还

代、市代、一级、二级、特约到消费者，

微商的繁荣得益于微信的发展降低

是以人为基础，如何有效地在大的社交平

中间设置4-6个层级，层层囤货。这种模

了各种营销成本，使人人电商和社交电商

台上搭建购物生态。其次，社交场景下商

式主要在于快速通过渠道铺货，以实现短

成为一种可能，但近期微信运营团队对朋

家生态中不同商家也有不同分层需求，但

期内快速汇款，甚至圈钱。在这种模式

友圈虚假生意的打击力度的加强，传统微

都要考虑相对有序地分享传播，结合中心

下，品牌传播导向以招商为主，代理通过

商模式的弊病开始暴露。今年3月18日，

化流量使用，综合提升品牌效应，而不是

投入相应量的金钱进行囤货以获得最优的

微信官方就针对首批售假账号作出结果公

以透支人群信用为代价。

进货价，以更利于获得下级代理的利润差

示，共计有93个冒名侵权的公众账号和 233个售假个人账号被封停。

价。二是分享推荐制微商，微商可从中分

轻代理新模式

享推荐赚佣金，这是一种按照最终交易效

“微商群体要做好，首先需要对货

不仅是微商平台在“清理门户”，过

果付费的推广方式(CPS)。但市面上有少

品做控制，对人群做分层，避免信誉透

去两个月，部分标杆的传统微商企业也在

部分商家却打着“消费变投资，人人是

支。”京东旗下拍拍小店相关负责人表

发生重大变化。这些传统大牌的微商操盘

老板”的幌子，强制要求认购商品才能加

示：“现在的代理制不需要囤货，也不再

手开始抛弃层层囤货的微商操盘模式，代

入，而且给的利润空间高得吓人，几乎就 是“传销”。 “前两种都有遭人病垢之处，”张 先生说，“目前最主流的微商模式是零售 微商。”零售微商是以品牌与个人直营零 售、或是以品牌为中心的微商生态系统， 踏踏实实卖好产品、提供好服务是此类微 商的发展根本。“这类微商起步阶段会相 对缓慢，但一旦建立起可持续运转的体 系，并形成规模化之后，就能形成小而美 的自循环生态。” 在看好轻代理模式的人看来，这种 模式使产品到达消费者的代理层级缩短， 产品的利润空间分配更合理，也更利于动 销。代理无囤货或只有少量使用产品，通 过合理的微商分级和晋级制度，让代理也 有动力通过低风险投入实现稳健收益。

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China Economic Review | September 2015

话题

股市动荡影响中国科技 公司融资步伐 中国科技公司股票的疲软在未来可能会影响中国下一代小创业公司，这些小的创业公司指望着天使 投资者和风险投资家的支持。 网易科技 供稿

外

媒认为，中国科技行业公司和投资

数年而非几周会内做得很出色的那些公司

者正在感受国内股市剧烈动荡所带

上。Uber Technologies的中国竞争对手

来的痛苦，社交电子商务服务蘑菇街融资

滴滴快的（Didi Kuaidi Joint Co.）周三

计划受到影响可能就是其中一例。

宣布已经完成20亿美元融资，投资者包

消息人士声称，包括私募股权投资

括Capital International Private Equity

巨头凯雷集团（Carlyle GroupLP）在内

Funds和Coatue Management LLC.两

的潜在新投资者，正在就蘑菇街估值要低

家美国基金公司。私募股权投资基金往往

于20亿美元（蘑菇街管理层所期望的标

是考虑未来长远回报的长线投资，他们持

签）一事进行商谈，投资者们继续在寻求

股时间往往达到多年。尽管他们不会终止

同蘑菇街达成交易，条款仍然在变动中，

投资，但一些可能在近期配置基金时将变

蘑菇街在这次新的融资中的估值将远远高

得更加谨慎，因为上市的科技公司股价进

于2014年6月份那轮融资中的估值10亿

一步下跌可能会让他们达成新交易变得更

美元。

困难。

有关蘑菇街估值的商谈，正值中国股

中国科技公司股票的疲软在未来可能

市最近大跌并且波及全球股市，阿里巴巴 有电商京东1.43亿股股票。京东股价已经

创业公司指望着天使投资者和风险投资家

大跌。

从上个月的高峰价每股38美元，下跌至本

的支持。

中国电子商务巨头公司股价下跌所

周三每股30.32美元，尽管今年以来该股

Qinmi公司创始人陈易平，希望在今

带来的刺痛已经被私募股权投资公司所感

股价仍然上涨了30%。按照周三的股价，

年10月份为他的这个位于深圳的小创业公

受，但是他们仍然对这些电子商务巨头押

高瓴资本集团所持京东这些股票价值约为

司完成新一轮融资，该创业公司业务涉及

下赌注，一如他们在这些电子商务巨头首

43亿美元。高瓴资本集团数年来以大量持

家庭通信应用和兼容这一应用的可穿戴设

次公开招股（IPO)之前所投下的赌注。例

有上市公司股票而知名，其所持这些公司

备开发。在他的利用智能手机聊天群进行

如，截至今年5月15日，美国私募股权投

股票的时间较其它基金公司更长。高瓴资

沟通的企业家朋友圈中，一些正在讨论的

资公司银湖（Silver Lake）仍然保留在阿

本集团是蘑菇街现有股东之一。

话题是，最近的股市跌宕是否和如何影响

里巴巴IPO之前对该公司投资额的85%。

包括电子商务巨头在内的在美国上市

来自风险投资家以及其它私募股权投资者

阿里巴巴股价已经从去年11月份时的高

中国科技股，较国内上市股表现得要好一

的未来投资。不过陈表示，这样的讨论仍

峰下跌了35%，跌至本周三收盘价只有

些。在沪深两市交易的许多科技公司往往

然只是在猜想。他说，“对于股市我无能

77.94美元，创下其去年9月份上市交易以

都是小盘股，他们吸引的是散户投资者的

为力，而作为一位创始人，我只关注我能

来最低收盘价。

热钱，大的机构投资者投资的则不多。最

做什么和我能控制什么。”陈易平于2013

近几周，这类股随着大盘的大跌而受到重

年创建了Qinmi，并且已经获得来自一些

创，有的腰斩，有的不得不暂时停牌。

个体投资者的种子资本。2014年7月份，

总部在北京的高瓴资本集团（Hillhouse Capital Group）是一家管理着超

68

会影响中国下一代小创业公司，这些小的

和京东等在美国上市的中国科技股都出现

过200亿美元资金的投资公司，据政府监

一些大的私募股权投资公司并没有

管机构文件显示，截至今年3月31日它持

草率行事，其资金一般投资在他们预计在

China Economic Review | September 2015

该公司获得来自全球风投公司DFJ Venture的中国分公司的天使投资。

“互联网+”风口上的淘金术 互联网的融入为各类产业的发展带来了无限的商机与挑战 文 | 李光斗 （微信公众号：李光斗品牌观察）

定“互联网+”已经成为中国的

制

模仿他人而不能做到很好的创新，这都使

这也预示着以智能制造为主导的工业4.0

国家计划，推动移动互联网、云

得中国制造业这条大船在互联网的浪潮中

时代的到来，这将是人类的第四次工业

计算、大数据、物联网等与现代制造业结

充满了风险。

革命。

合，促进电子商务、工业互联网和互联网 金融健康发展，引导互联网企业拓展国际

那么制造业中出现互联网应该是什么 样呢？那就是“轻时代”。

然而，对于汽车的使用者来说，如 今不仅仅是要有驾驶的乐趣了，而是把驾

市场。一时间“互联网+”一词就引发了各

例如，随着智能机器人技术的快速发

驶和互联网的乐趣融合在一起，预计到

界广泛的关注和议论。那么“互联网+”指

展和价格的下跌，极大可能导致工厂将加

2020年全球75%的汽车，大约有9200万

的是什么呢？

快使用机器人取代工人的步伐。中国制造

辆汽车都将能够接入互联网的硬件设备。

简单来说，“互联网+”加的不仅仅

业曾经一直得益于廉价的劳动力，而现在

例如：2014年腾讯地图推出的“路宝”盒

是技术，而是“互联网+各个传统行业”，

对于中国而言，先进机器人将节省约18%

子，不仅可以提供实时路况、街景还可以

这二者如何更加深入地融合，从而迸发出

的劳动力成本，大大缓解了用工成本过高

为车主提供友好分析、驾驶行为分析、对

更多更好的新兴产业和新兴业态，也促进

的问题。制造业智能化意味着我们将移动

故障检测进行智能解读以及救援服务等。

了社会各行各业的创新与相互融合。众所

互联网、云计算、物联网、大数据等新型

周知，第一次工业革命是蒸汽机的出现，

信息技术与制造业的每一环节相互打通，

如今的企业已经不需要从一个两三人 的小作坊发展成为上万人的工厂了，但

第二次工业革命是电文明的产生，那么第 三次工业革命就是互联网时代的到来。每 一次工业革命都给人类的生产力和创造力 带来了巨大的提升，但互联网的出现不仅 仅提高了生产力，它将带给传统企业的是 决策方式、业务模式、经营思路等方面的 巨大转变。那么当互联网遇到不同的企业 时会发生什么呢？

一、当互联网遇到制造业 春节前夕，一些制造业大省接连传来 工厂倒闭的消息，于此同时国人还上演了 在日本抢购马桶盖的现象，不得不承认中 国制造业面临空前的压力。国人都喜欢买 洋货，却不介意这些漂洋过海的产品上面 写着：“Made in China”。 出现这样的问题，原因当然是多方面 的，在企业倒闭的案例中，用工成本过高 是一个很紧要的问题，我国的制造业一直 是处于劳动密集型，那么现阶段劳动力人 口不断下降对制造业来说打击很大。另外 中国制造业多年来忽略了品牌的建设，更 多的是看重产品的量和规模，生产中习惯

China Economic Review | September 2015

69

话题

互联网企业开始重视云端数据的统计，很 多企业也慢慢开始运用大数据对客户进行 有效分析。你在浏览网页时都做了什么？ 你现在处于人生的哪一个阶段？你喜欢什 么时间买东西？商家可以对你进行“把 脉”，然后对症下药。

三、当互联网遇到文化产业 互联网的出现同样也对传统的文化产 业产生了巨大的影响，在两会上，“三网 融合”无疑是通信行业最为关注的热词之 一，有线电视业务、固话业务、互联网业 务将更大程度地融合在一起。在过去的一 年中，很多小的视频网站被收购，或是日 益边缘化，大部分市场份额被几家大的视 频网站公司占据着。优酷土豆合并了以后 无疑成为综合视频网站的老大，而乐视可 以说是超越了互联网思维，成为最具备三 网融合思维的企业。 乐视打造了“平台+终端+内容+应 用”的“乐视生态模式”，甚至在三网融 合发展十分成熟的美国也找不到一家与其 模式完全相同的公司。它比苹果多了影视 内容版权，比亚马逊多了智能电视终端。 乐视不仅仅提供有线网络直播节目，也提 供了互联网视频提供商在线自由点播等网 一定得具备互联网思维。企业可以无

你还没有坐过专车吗？曾经没用过智

需大规模地投资生产工厂和制造设备，但

能手机的出租车司机师傅们，现在通过滴

需把更多的精力、人力放在品牌与营销环

滴打车等打车软件可以避免空车驾驶等问

目前乐视的布局发展，已经有乐视

境，懂得如何整合资源，那么，即使是只

题，方便租客乘车的同时，也对司机师傅

网、云视频平台、乐视影业、超级电视及

有两、三个人的公司，同样可以走在世界

的收入有很大的提高。

乐视盒子、智能电视操作系统Letv UI，

前端。

二、当互联网遇到服务业

70

络功能，乐视的超级电视和乐视盒子填补 了这一市场空白。

你知道微众银行吗？他们既无营业

智能电视应用市场Letv Store等，乐视希

网点，也无营业柜台，更无需财产担保，

望继续加码生态系统，乐视终端手机已高

如果你需要贷款，直接登陆微众银行网

调发布，打造娱乐产业生态圈的意图十分

目前我国互联网用户有6.49亿，其

址，通过人脸识别技术和云端大数据信用

明显。

中手机网民规模达到5.57亿，渗透率已达

评级来发放贷款。这是第一家互联网金融

互联网的优势在于打破了以往的信息

85.8%，早已超出全球平均水平。

银行，这种玩法才真的是“有钱就可以很

不对称，将碎片化的用户需求进行整合，

你能想象到交警用微信向你收取罚

任性”。随着互联网金融领域中，余额

从而扩大了消费范围、降低了交易成本，

款吗？这种现象应该不再那么陌生了，到

宝、P2P、众筹和众多“宝宝类”产品的

提高了运行效率。

2014年底，我国已经有近两万个政务微

兴起，使得互联网货币基金的理财门槛变

国家总理李克强在两会上答记者问

信公众账号。一名交警可以在60秒内完成

得很低，同时也为许多小微创业者提供了

时说到：“站在‘互联网+’的风口上顺

收取罚款，这一举措可以大大节约窗口缴

良好的机会。

势而为，会使中国经济飞起来。”那么传

费的人工和时间成本。手机还能帮我们完

你知道你的淘宝首页和Ta的不一

统企业只有摸清、吃透互联网的精髓和游

成很多事情，例如：缴纳水电费、转账汇

样吗？没错，这就是云端大数据在“搞

戏规则，才能真正发挥出“1+1>2”的

款、手机购物、医院挂号等等。

鬼”。不仅像阿里巴巴这样具有代表性的

效能。

China Economic Review | September 2015

话题

读懂消费者才是王道 品牌经济时代，所有的关注焦点都集中到了消费者身上。消费者成为市场中真正的上帝，然而上帝 们的内心却难以揣度。 文 | 李光斗

中

争中处于尴尬的境地。

场。全球化浪潮冲击下的中国消费

因此首先洞察消费者内心真实的需

品市场，也正在从以前的产品导向时代向

求，才是企业制定、采取市场行动的基础

消费者导向时代转变，成熟的买方市场已

和前提。

国正在成为世界上最富想象力的市

经形成。消费者成为市场经济大舞台的主 角，选择权掌握在他们手中，消费者的选

隐藏于消费者内心对品牌认知的三个 层次：

72

中，一眼就能看出这个象征时尚、优雅的 标志。

第二个层次，品牌的联想 品牌所代表的是消费者所认知和赞 同的某种价值观和心理认同的情感趋向。

择决定着企业能否生存与发展的命运。 品牌经济时代，所有的关注焦点都

nel— 香奈儿，无论在多么混乱的环境

第一个层次，品牌是个符号

品牌是连接企业和消费者情感的纽带，对

集中到了消费者身上。消费者成为市场中

消费者最初接触到的是品牌形象，这

于竞争对手又是无形但具有杀伤力的有力

真正的上帝，然而上帝们的内心却难以揣

种形象愈有个性和特点愈好。比如消费者

武器。每个品牌都应该有与众不同的品牌

度。在市场营销活动的实际执行过程中，

来到麦当劳就餐时，无论店外或店内但凡

内涵以及它所带给消费者的情感认同和偏

我们发现市场现状与调研结果往往大相径

人眼所及之处：点餐台、各种食品包装或

好，使消费者在享受商品的同时还能感受

庭。消费者表述的消费理念与实际消费行

员工制服、玩具上都清晰、醒目的印着黄

到品牌所赋予的情感价值的体验。当你在

为背离，这使得企业精心制定的商品或服

色“M”符号。在消费者心中当想到或谈

喝“可口可乐”的时候，并不只是单纯的

务的整体决策出现严重偏差，企业本想与

及麦当劳时，头脑中自然第一个就会想到

去喝一种深色液体的碳酸饮料，那样的话

消费者先期进行沟通以便了解其所需求，

它的形象符号“M”；当我们到两个C字

喝什么饮料不是喝呢？但只有“可口可

实际上却被错误信息误导而造成在市场竞

母背对交叉在一起的标志就知道是Cha-

乐”最能代表美国。

China Economic Review | September 2015

话题

在第二次世界大战中，可口可乐成 为能让美国大兵摆脱孤独和苦恼，稳定军 心、提高士气的军需品。艾森豪威尔在北 非指挥大军远征西西岛之前，给美军参谋 长联席会议主席马歇尔发出的一份急电要 求道： “本军现行要求300万瓶可口可乐， 以及每月可以生产两倍数量的完整装瓶、 清洗封盖设备，请提供护航。”

第三个层次，潜意识 潜意识是消费者内心对品牌深层次 的真实想法，也是在做消费者调研时最核 心的部分。消费者在消费过程中不但追求 生理的需求和满足，更多的是在追求心理 上的需求，追求一种感觉、自身价值的认 同。只有品牌才能赋予消费者需求被认同 的的心理满足。 这一点星巴克做的就比较不错，星巴 克咖啡在中国卖的就是一种时尚的感觉。 时代华纳董事长Gerald

Levin曾说，判

断城市进步的指标就要看它是否拥有星巴 克。 1999年1月，星巴克在北京的国贸大 厦开了第一家中国分店。此后短短的4年时 间内，星巴克在中国扩张的气势就似乎一 发不可收拾，它那绿色美人鱼标志已经成 为一种现代城市图腾，无处不在。 也许在咖啡文明的国家里，星巴克 代表着闲适和舒缓的生活。而对中国人来

心、丰联广场、百盛商场、赛特大厦、贵

窗外的车水马龙，轻轻啜饮一口香浓的咖

说，喝咖啡不仅是一种生活享受，更代表

友大厦、友谊商店、当代商城、新东安商

啡，你会有一种城市主人的感觉，虽说有

一种奢侈的消费时尚。让喝咖啡变成一

场、建威大厦……都是有钱人经常出没的

点做秀的意味，却也非常符合“雅皮”的

种时尚文化的生活体验，星巴克做得很

地方，当然也是小资们可以显示自己身份

感觉体验。

到位。

的地方。有这样的形象，吸引一群特定的

一个荡漾着黑色咖啡浓香的地方，一

人流当然没有问题了。

星巴克很聪明，巧妙地利用了小资们 的消费心理特征，在一个公共场所来展示

个充满情调的地方，一个总是人满为患的

试想一下，拎着笔记本电脑去星巴

自己是新潮一族。这其实也是许多当代中

地方，现在星巴克已成了装点中国都市白

克，星巴克咖啡店的每个咖啡座下都有一

国人的心理特征。星巴克为那些中国正在

领生活门面的地方。

个电源插座，可以一边惬意地喝着咖啡，

形成的，喜欢看与被看到的都市白领提供

一边用随身携带的笔记本电脑上上网、发

了一种全新的消费体验。

在中国去星巴克消费的，90%是冲着 那种氛围，“喝情调”去的。

发邮件、写点东西，而且不需要电话线。

企业如果想长久的占领消费者的心

星巴克一般选址在人流、特别是有钱

星巴克已经与网通合作推出了“无限伴

智，与其进行情感上的沟通最重要不过

的人流多的商场、写字楼。在北京，循着

旅”，在星巴克，笔记本电脑成为星巴克

了。就好像谈恋爱，爱一个人永远没有懂

星巴克的绿色标志，你会有这样的有趣发

的“咖啡伴侣”。

一个人重要，读懂你的消费者才是品牌战

现：国贸、中粮广场、东方广场、嘉里中

这时你坐在巨大的落地窗旁，看着

争中致胜的王道。

China Economic Review | September 2015

73

话题

市场化再进一步 央行“汇改新政” 美金对人民币中间价大跌约2%，被业界认为是央行完善中间价报价机制所带来的一次性调整。

8

月11日，央行决定进一步完善人民币 兑美元汇率中间价报价，增强其市场

化程度和基准性。8月12日，情况还在继 续发生变化。 “人民币兑美元汇率中间价大跌超过 3%，这在人民币汇改历史上，是不曾有过 的。”一位国有银行外汇交易员表示。然 而，这一幕确实发生了。“但是，随着美 元加息预期越来越高，人民币短期适度贬 值的市场压力一直都存在，但很多企业与 机构的应对策略，要么将手里的人民币兑 换成美元，要么不再将对外贸获得的美元 进行结汇，但这些美元没有撤离中国，而 是存入境内银行，这导致了金融市场出现 一个新现象，国家外汇储备有所减少，银 行外汇存款却在增加。”

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基础的汇率指标价格，确保IMF成员在任

济尽早企稳反弹，避免重蹈新兴市场国家

对于此次人民币中间价报价机制的调

何时间，能以这个基准汇率进行较大规模

经济恶性循环+资本外流的覆辙。“不可

整，央行方面解释称，人民币汇率中间价

的外汇交易。”一位前IMF工作人员透露。

否认的是，中国外汇储备之所以减少，一

偏离市场汇率幅度较大，持续时间较长，

根据外汇交易中心的解释，人民币对

是外汇储备里的非美元资产因货币贬值造

已经影响了中间价的市场基准地位和权威

美元汇率中间价的形成方式，是由交易中

成的估值损失，二是少量资金的确开始外

性。随着这项措施对人民币中间价报价机

心在每日银行间外汇市场开盘前，向外汇

流。”连平指出。但这些都不是导致外汇

制进行优化，将有利于提高中间价形成的

市场做市商询价，并将全部做市商报价作

储备缩水的主要原因，一个不容忽视的趋

市场化程度，扩大市场汇率的实际运行空

为人民币对美元汇率中间价的计算样本，

势，是中国正在推行“一带一路”战略，

间，更好地发挥汇率对外汇供求的调节

去掉最高和最低报价后，将剩余做市商报

对外有大量投资并购项目，加之近年中国

作用。

价加权平均，得到当日人民币对美元汇率

居民增加对外投资力度，某种程度也会导 致外汇储备减少。

在不少外汇交易员看来，央行此举的

中间价，相应的权重则由外汇交易中心根

更大目的，旨在解决人民币纳入国际货币

据报价方在银行间外汇市场的交易量及报

基金组织（IMF）特别提款权（SDR）的

价情况等指标综合确定。

在上述外汇交易员看来，中国政府之 所以调整人民币中间价定价机制，主要目

相关操作问题。8月初，IMF最新报告重点

随着8月11日人民币中间价大跌，不

的是推动人民币尽早满足加入SDR的各项

提到将人民币纳为“全球储备货币”的某

少机构开始担心资本外流问题。交通银行

条件，加快人民币国际化的步伐。因此央

些操作性困难，比如在岸与离岸人民币汇

首席经济学家连平对此表示，目前讨论中

行也会倾向保持人民币长期升值的趋势，

率的差异、在岸市场流动性不足、在岸市

国面临资本外流危机，有点言过其实。毕

为人民币国际化创造良好的外部环境。毕

场每日交易时间短等问题。

竟，相比这些新兴市场国家经济发展严重

竟，各国央行与国际大型资产管理机构不

“更重要的是，IMF希望人民币能拥

依赖大宗商品出口，中国经济结构更有弹

愿将一只存在趋势性贬值预期的货币，纳

有一个具备广泛代表性的、以市场定价为

性，可以通过出台一系列刺激政策确保经

入自己储备货币资金池。

China Economic Review | September 2015

CULTURE MAP

Tibet · Zenisi Monastery waiting in silence for 759 years Situated in the southwest of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Tibet is well known for its spectacular and miraculous natural beauty, haunting the hearts of travel enthusiasts and culture pursuers who seek challenges and explorations

G

rand Potala Palace, glittering Namsto Lake, magnificent Yarlung zangbu Grand Canyon, and Mount Everest, Qomolangma, provide a first glimpse of Tibet, a broad land enriched with profound natural and human elements. One of Tibet’s dominant cultural elements—Buddhism—vividly unfolds in the religiousstyled architecture and citizen’s daily lives, becoming the source for exploring the secrets of Tibet.

Various Buddhist temples are scattered across this mysterious land like strings of beautiful pearls, inheriting and developing the ancient culture, influencing the lives of generations.

Tsannyid Namgyal Choe Khor Ling Buddhist Dialectics Monastery is one of them. Zenisi Monastery is the biggest Drukpa kargyu panca-vidya monastic institute in Kham, in eastern Tibet. With a history of over 700 years, it has undergone construction,

extension, renovation, damage and reconstruction, witnessing the ups and downs of Tibet.

Oasis amidst waters and mountains Zenisi Monastery is situated in Kham, east of Tibet. Boasting a long history, this area is a typical birthplace of local civilization. Changdu City, where the Monastery is located, faces towards Sichuan Province, borders on Yun-

China Economic Review | September 2015

75

CULTURE MAP

nan Province at its southeast and adjoins Nyingchi Prefecture at its southwest. Moreover, Angqu River, Zhaqu River, and Sequ River blend here into Lancang River, forming a picturesque landscape.

Zenisi Monastery is situated in a sacred place which was blessed by Manjushri Bodhisattva. This place is also known as the second Wutai Mountain.

Perched on the hilltop, the monastery boasts a splendid scene. Accumulated snow clothes endless mountains under a vast blue sky, like a classic Chinese ink painting. The irregular coverage of the snow creates different patterns and thus bestows each peak with its own distinctive character. When spring comes, as the snow melts and plants revive, the mountains appear more precipitous and imposing. Lush trees cluster around the foot of the hills, while the peaks become more distinct in shape. Standing in front of the monastery, one can hear the Langcang River roaring in the distance; retreating to the back, a peaceful picture springs to sight as trees and grass surround the Lama’s red houses.

The Sky joining the Earth, water succeeding the mountains, this is the home to Zenisi Monastery where Lamas study Buddhist doctrines in tranquility, and acquire inspiration in body, heart and soul.

An ancient monastery that undergoes constructions through several generations Since the establishment of Zenisi Monastery 700 years ago, several eminent monks have dedicated themselves to the protection and development of the monastery.

The founder of the monastery was Hphags Pa Blo Gros Rgyal Mtshan. He

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China Economic Review | September 2015

showed great talent and extraordinary retentive memory in his childhood.

According to ‘The History of Yuan Dynasty’, when he was only seven years old, he could read several thousand words of Buddhist texts, understand their general meaning, and is therefore called a saint child. His fame spread far quickly. He often followed his uncle Sakya Pandita to travel around and learnede Sakya doctrines. At the age of 17, he had acquired all the essence of Sakya. In the year 1251, Sakya Pandita was hit by a severe illness. Before his death, he appointed Hphags Pa to be his successor as the abbot of Sakya Monastery and the hierarch of Sakya.

Thus, Hphags Pa became the fifth master of Sakya, Tibetan Buddhism when he was 17. Two years later, Hphags Pa reencountered Kublai, the fifth emperor of the Yuan Dynasty, who had shown favor and appreciation of him before.

Kublai appointed him as Guru out of regard to his knowledge and virtues.

Hphags Pa taught Buddhism to Kublai’s households. In the year 1256 at the Southern Song Dynasty, Hphags Pa become an intimate follower of Kub-

lai and established Zenisi Monastery beside Nabo Mountain at Changdu area, Tibet, creating a new homeland for local Buddhists.

In 1765, the Fourth Kamtrul Choekyi Nyima Rinpoche renovated and extended Zenisi Monastery. The brand new monastery became the largest Drukpa Kagyud Linkage monastic institute in the Xikang region consisting of a yoga center and Buddhism texts hall.

In modern times, due to lack of repair for long years, the walls of the monastery were fractured and the timber rotted severely. Under the support of the relevant departments, the previous abbot Kunchog Rinpoche began renovation work in 1982. Owing to a shortage of money, the reconstruction was quite simple and crude. To make matters worse, the 2010 Yushu earthquake brought serious destroy to Zenisi Monastery. The architecture framework were so badly damaged that the main hall had to be abandoned. The accommodation of hundreds of Lamas was threatened, so the reconstruction was imperative. Since 2007, the present abbot Rabjam Yeshe Rinpoche has spared no effort to travel long distances around the country to teach Buddhist doctrines and raise money for the monastery’s repair. A Buddhism legend, a profound history, a classic legacy that endures 759 years, Zenisi Monastery deserves more attention and participation from the public. At last, thanks to the general aid from all walks of life, the reconstruction work of the main hall started in May, 2012 and the external contour renovation was completed in October, 2013. Now, Zenisi Monastery is grand and magnificent with an 3,000 square metres, comprising four floors.

CULTURE MAP

The first and second floor are each six metres high.

Inheriting a thousand years of Buddhism culture, Zenisi Monastery has transitioned through several dynasties in its 759 years history, witnessing the development of Tibet and raising generation after generation of Lamas.

Three generations of Tsannyid Rajam guard and develop the monastery Rinpoche, a respectful was to address a “living Buddha”, means “treasure”.

Among many appellations that indicate a living Buddha, Rinpoche is the most cordial, frequently used and respected.

Since its establishment, Zenisi Monastery has fostered over a hundred scholars and great masters under the guard of three Rinpoche.

In 1838, Lodro Tenpa Rinpoche was born beside the Lancang River. With profound knowledge and preeminent intelligence, he obtained doctoral degree on Ten Dharma and became the first Tsannyid Rajam, guarding the monastery. He passed into Parinirvana in the year 1918.

In the ninth year of the Republic of China, namely 1920, Dawa Tserig Rinpochi was born. He is firmly believed to be the reincarnation of Rajam-living Buddha. Virtuous and talented, he keeps Buddhism in heart, making extraordinary dedications for Zenisi Monastery.

In 1979, the present abbot Rabjam Yeshe Rinpoche was born in Changdu.

Not long after his birth, he was able to read by heart the mantra of Manjusri Buddisattva. He is recognized as the reincarnation of the first Tsannyid Rajam Lodro Tenpa because of his extraordinary talent. As the state

mentor appointed by the first Bhutan King and the Guru of the first Dudjom Rinpoche, Rabjam Yeshe Rinpoche studies Buddhism doctrines with full concentration. It has not been once that He closed the monastery for studying Buddhism wholeheartedly. He takes care of over a hundred monks with humbleness. Since 2007, he has been toiled to travel around to promote Buddhism and raise funds for monastery repairs.

Through the devotional care of these three generations of Tsannyid Rajam, Zenisi Monastery has grown continuously in Tibet. Generations of guardians carry the doctrines forward, and make the spirit and strength of Zenisi Monastery known to more people.

Where the heart leads, the feet follow In keeping with its profound origins, Zenisi Monastery stores abundant antiques. A diversity of Buddhist paintings and statues are solemnly on display. The current abbot Rabjam Yeshe Rinpoche has many precious items himself, such as the painting of the third Karmapa that is blessed by the Karmapa himself; the painting of the twin Guru

Padmasambhava; the statue of Shakyamuni that has thousands of years’ of history; the statue of Manjusri Buddisattva with the words “Ming Yongle” engraved on the lotus pedestal, and so on. While introducing these great treasures, Rabjam Yeshe Rinpoche is solemn and concentrated, as if he is paying respect to the real Buddha.

Now Zenisi Monastery has become a part and parcel in the daily life of local lamas.

During the renovation period, Rabjam Yeshe Rinpoche leads little lamas to the grasslands. They have a clear division of labor. Some pitch the tent frames while the others clothe the tent with Buddhist patterned coats. After properly arranging the insides, they sit down in a circle while the abbot begins teaching doctrines in front of a makeshift platform. On the Yamantaka Dharma Assembly held in the monastery in 2015, a lot of local people came to join in. With the teachings of Abbot Rabjam Yeshe Rinpoche, the public also began to worship and chant. Zenisi Monastery is indeed becoming a spiritual homeland for them to pursue their beliefs and cultivate their hearts and minds.

China Economic Review | September 2015

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文化地图

西藏 · 泽尼寺 759年的静默与守候 西藏，这片位于中国青藏高原西南部的土地，以其雄伟壮观、神奇瑰丽的自然风光闻名，一直是旅 游爱好者与文化追求者自我挑战与探索的胜地。 文 | 依喜江措仁波切

富

丽堂皇的布达拉宫、晶莹浩瀚的纳 木错、壮丽雄伟的雅鲁藏布大峡

谷、“世界之巅”珠穆拉玛峰……西藏辽 阔的大地蕴含了深厚的自然和人文景观， 而藏传佛教作为与之发展息息相关的文化 之一，深深体现在宗教风格的建筑中，以 及居民的日常生活中，成为人们探寻西藏 奥秘的根源。 大大小小的佛教寺庙，如同散落在西 藏这片神秘大地上的颗颗明珠，传承、发 展，并影响着一代代人的生活。泽尼朗加 曲科林寺便是其中之一。泽尼寺是西藏东 部康巴地区藏传佛教竹巴噶举派最大的五 明佛学院，在700多年的岁月流淌中，它 经历了兴建、扩建、修复、重创与重建， 见证着西藏一路行来的沧桑变迁。

隐于山水之间的世外桃源

郁郁葱葱的树木簇拥于山脚，山头的棱角

年时，八思巴便闻名遐迩。因其伯父是萨

越发分明，山势越发险峻，气势雄伟。寺

迦班智达，八思巴常跟随伯父出行，并

泽尼寺位于西藏东部的康巴地区。康

庙门前，可以眺望汹涌澎湃的澜沧江，寺

学习萨迦教法，17岁时就尽得其一切真

巴地区历史悠久，自远古时期便是一个具

庙后，喇嘛们的红色房子被幼树和青草包

传。1251年，萨迦班智达病重，在他临终

有代表性的地区文明发源地。寺院所在的

裹着，显得生气勃勃。

前，任命八思巴为自己的法位继承人，17

昌都市东与四川省相望，东南面与云南省

泽尼寺便是处于这样一个天地相连、

岁的八思巴开始担任萨迦寺住持和萨迦派

接壤，西南面与西藏林芝地区毗邻，又地

山水相接的世外桃源中，喇嘛和信徒们在

教主职位，成为西藏佛教萨迦派第五代师

处昂曲、扎曲、色曲及澜沧江这一三河一

这一优美而幽静的环境中研习佛法，身心

祖。两年后，八思巴重遇之前十分器重他

江地区，形成了山水相映的优美画卷。

灵也可得到升华与感悟。

的开元世祖忽必烈，忽必烈对八思巴的学

泽尼寺坐落的道场曾受文殊菩萨加 持，享有“西藏五台山”的美誉。站在寺 院的山头，冬日的积雪似乎为连绵的山峦 披上了一层外衣，苍茫的雪山与蓝天白云

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识与美德报以崇敬，奉其为上师，八思巴

历经数代建设的百年古寺 在泽尼寺700多年的历史中，汇聚了 数位高僧的庇佑与心血。

也为其家人授经说法。公元1256年南宋时 期，八思巴跟随忽必烈左右，并在西藏昌 都地区的拿薄山旁兴建起泽尼寺。从此，

相互呼应，形成一种若即若离、似有似无

寺院创始人为八思巴 · 洛哲坚赞，意

的水墨画卷。在通往泽尼寺的山路上，皑

为“圣者慧幢”。他从小就聪明过人，

公元1765年，第四世康珠法王对整

皑白雪不均匀地撒在此起彼伏的山峦中，

有过目不忘的本领。《元史释老传》中

座泽尼寺进行了修复和扩建，使经过岁月

自然落成不同的图案，赋予了每一座山不

记载，在他7岁之时，就能“诵经数十万

洗礼的泽尼寺焕然一新，泽尼寺也被正式

同的个性。春天，冰雪渐融，万物复苏，

言，能约通其大义，国人号之圣童”。少

立为竹巴噶举派的寺庙，成为整个西康竹

China Economic Review | September 2015

泽尼寺成为了当地信徒新的归属。

文化地图

的上师，是一位大伏藏师名为“色南囊卡 多吉”，依喜江措仁波切是大伏藏师的后 代，他潜心修行及多次闭关静修泽尼寺， 并一直传统谦卑地照顾寺院的一百多名僧 侣。2007年至今，为弘扬佛法和重建寺院 筹款，依喜江措仁波切多次不辞辛劳地前 往全国各地与各界善众见面。 泽尼寺经历了三世“泽尼然江”的 悉心照料，在西藏的土地上生根成长。历 代的守护者们口耳相传地将泽尼寺的教义 传承下去，将泽尼寺的精神与力量为众人 所知。

心之所向，身之所往 与其深远厚重的发展渊源一样，泽尼 寺中也蕴藏了大量的藏品。琳琅满目的佛 教画像、雕塑有序陈列，庄严而神圣。现 任住持依喜江措仁波切自身便有很多珍贵 的收藏，如：由法王亲自加持的第三世大 巴噶举教派最大的五明佛学院、瑜伽修练

百年的发展，孕育着一代又一代的喇嘛。

中心以及经堂等一所完整的密宗竹巴噶举 教派的佛学院。

宝法、住持的“双生儿”莲花生大士、具 有几千年历史的印度释迦摩尼佛像、莲花

三世“泽尼然江”的守护与传承

底座上刻有汉字“大明永乐”的文殊菩萨

近代，寺院的建筑因年久失修，墙

仁波切一般称为“活佛”是尊称之

壁出现破裂，木料也严重腐烂。在相关部

一，意为“珍宝”，“摩尼宝”和”转世

门的支持下，上任住持根秋巴桑仁波切

喇嘛”。在活佛的多种称谓中，仁波切是

于1982年，开始了泽尼寺的重建工作。

最亲切、使用最普遍并且最为推崇的一种

由于经费短缺，寺院的建设十分简陋。雪

称呼。从泽尼寺建造至今，寺院被三次转

在泽尼寺整修期间，住持依喜江措仁

上加霜的是，2010年的玉树地震对泽尼

世的“泽尼然江”仁波切的庇护下培养了

波切带领着小喇嘛们至草原，小喇嘛分工

寺造成了极大的破坏，寺院的建筑架构受

许多佛学博士和高僧大德。

明确，井然有序地支起帐篷的框架，一旁

佛像等，住持在介绍这些佛像时犹如礼佛 般专注而神圣。 如今，泽尼寺已经成为了当地喇嘛和 信徒们生活中重要的组成部分。

到严重损害，主殿不得不被废置，数百名

公元1838年，络珠登巴仁波切在澜

等待的喇嘛随即为其盖上印有佛教印花的

喇嘛赖以生存的居所岌岌可危，因此寺院

沧江沿岸出生。他凭借渊博的知识和超群

帐篷外衣，在帐篷内进行了一系列的布置

的重建势在必行。自2007年起，现任寺

的智慧获得十法博士学位，成为第一世

之后，大家席地而坐，住持在临时建起的

院住持依喜江措仁波切便多次不辞辛劳长

泽尼然江，守护着泽尼寺，并于1918年

高台后为大家传授教义。在2015年泽尼寺

途跋涉，前往全国各地与各界善众见面穿

圆寂。

举行的大威德金刚法会上，众多当地居民

法，弘扬佛法的同时，为泽尼寺重建募集

民国九年，即1920年，被泽尼活佛

前来参拜，随着住持的布道而虔诚跪诵。

善款。759年的佛缘传奇，759年的悠久

绛巴洛布仁波切认定为然江活佛转世的达

泽尼寺已然成为他们追随信仰、心灵进修

历史，759年的传世经典，需要更多善众

瓦泽仁仁波切诞生。德才兼备的他将秉承

的课堂，成为他们可以依靠的精神家园。

的关注和参与。最终，在各界的慷慨捐助

佛学谨记在心，对于泽尼寺而言，这一

泽尼寺自创建以来，历经了数代变

下，主殿重建工程于2012年5月开始，并

代然江活佛的贡献与功德相对来说更为

换与数世更迭。西藏自唐藩联姻以来，政

于2013年10月前完成了主殿寺庙的首四层

突出。

治、经济和文化都有了巨大的变化和飞速

外廓工程。如今，泽尼寺已然气势磅礴，

1979年，泽尼寺现任住持依喜江措

的发展，历史的沉淀和文化的浸染使泽尼

总面积多达3000多平方米，寺院共有4

仁波切诞生于昌都，其出生后不久便能念

寺迈着与之相同的步伐稳稳前行着。在山

层，1层与2层高各6米。

诵文殊菩萨心咒，这一举动使他被认定为

明水秀的昌都，在色彩斑斓的康巴藏区，

759年间，泽尼寺跨越了数个朝代，

是第一世泽尼然江络珠登巴的转世。第

在瑰丽多姿的西藏，泽尼寺就这样生生不

运载着几千年的佛教文化，见证了西藏数

一任不丹国王的国师和第一世敦珠法王

息的存在着、成长着。

China Economic Review | September 2015

79

LOOKING AT CHINA

Winning and losing Sometimes the stock market numbers go up, and sometimes they go down

By Graham Earnshaw

T

he first direct experience I had of the Shanghai Stock Exchange came in 1993 when I visited the city for the first time in seven or eight years, and had the opportunity to go and meet the head of the Exchange at his office. The office and the actual exchange, with trading desks and a big screen were all in the lobby of the old Astor Hotel, a venerable hostelry from the foreign-controlled past of the city, built in the late 19th century just over the Garden Bridge from the Bund. To see the stock exchange operating there was a weird juxtaposition of Shanghai’s present and past. Three years later, I also had the opportunity to visit the massive new headquarters of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in Pudong before they were actually completed. I stood on the massive concrete floors with no windows or walls whatsoever, which was also weird because by 1996 it was already becoming clear that massive physical trading floors were no necessary for stock markets, and that trading activity was moving online.

I am not a brilliant investor, and apart from a brief and unprofitable effort at day trading the New York markets in 1999, I have over the years been cautious with regard to investment in stock markets. My best investment ever was in Microsoft. I bought shares in 1995 and sold them at 10 times the value in 1999. Alas, I did not buy enough shares to finance the exorbitantly luxurious lifestyle to which I wish

80

China Economic Review | September 2015

to become accustomed forever. In 2008, I bought Apple shares at around the equivalent of $30, and the stock today trades at four or five times that amount.

I have neither bought any more Apple shares nor sold those that I bought on that day. Those are the only stocks anywhere that I hold. Full disclosure requirements have now been satisfied.

China’s stock market, even more than New York and Hong Kong, has always seemed unsafe to me, and I have never had a stock trading account here and have no interest in participating.

There have been periods when I have regretted this, when the market was booming and appeared to have no roof on itself whatsoever. But my caution was always rewarded at some point by an end to the gravy train.

I have no interest in gambling casinos either. I once went to the Casino Royale in Monte Carlo in the south of France, the most famous casino the world, and I bought one chip for 10 French francs, the minimum amount, and placed it on red at the roulette table. I won. I immediately went back

to the teller and cashed in my two chips, and left the casino humming to myself the famous American tune “The man who broke the bank at Monte Carlo”.

Of course I did not break the bank, but I did beat them. And for whatever reason, I felt no need to place the two 10-franc chips back on the roulette table and try to double it yet again.

I will gamble in other ways, of course, but always where there is at least the appearance of a greater ability to control the outcome than the randomness of a casino. The same is true of stocks. While there is a fundamental randomness about the prospects for any investment anywhere at any time, including the purchase of Apple stocks in New York, the transparency, the sense of being able to make a rational judgment as to the likely outcome of an investment, the ability to make a rational case for the purchase of a stock in Shanghai seems to me to be almost entirely lacking.

Even experienced traders in China tell me that economic fundamentals and the profitability and results of individual companies have only minimal impact on price movements and index movements in Shanghai. That makes it an extremely dangerous game for anybody who is not “in the know”. And I am definitely not somebody who is “in the know”. As a result, I watch the gyrations of the stock market with puzzlement mixed with a sense of awe at the amounts of money that are involved.

看中国

成败之间 股市之跌宕起伏实乃常态 文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

我

对于上海证券交易所第一次的直

毕竟我实在找不到将两枚筹码重新押到赌

观体验还早在1993年，那时距离

桌上的必要。

我初次来到上海已经相隔七、八年了。当

我也还会以其他方式进行“赌博”，

时我来到位于外白渡桥边建造于19世纪晚

但比起赌场极大的随机性，我更倾向于拥

期的浦江饭店拜访上海证券交易所的负责

有掌控力的投资方式。股市也是同理，无

人，当时的上海证券交易所办公室就设立

论何时何地，对于投资资产具有的不定性

于浦江饭店之中。股票交易的操作台和大

应当做出理性判断，包括我在纽约股市选

屏幕上数值滚动，而周围的环境却是百年

择购入的苹果股票。然而在上海股市，要

前的风格，仿佛同时见证着上海的过去和

做出这样理性的判断，于我并非易事。

现在。3年后，我又有机会参观了上海证

在中国，即使是经验老道的股票交易

券交易所位于浦东尚未竣工的新总部。当

员，也常常告诫我，基本经济因素和私营

我站在大片混凝土浇筑的地板上看着四周

企业收益率等，对于整个股市的股价波动

尚未安装窗墙的办公室，心中涌起一丝异

和指数变化，影响微乎其微。因此，对于

样，毕竟即使在1996年，股票交易也已经

赌桌的红色区域，结果是我赌赢了。来到

我这样不知内情的外行人而言，股市所暗

逐渐发展为线上交易，实体交易平台似乎

柜台兑现两枚筹码后，我便哼着美国电影

藏的风险可想而知。股市之跌宕起伏，我

并无存在的必要。

The man who broke the bank at Monte

虽费解，但因其所涉及的庞大金额，我心

Carlo的主题曲，毫无留恋地离开了赌场。

中还是怀有一丝敬畏。

就我个人而言，我并不算一个明智的 投资人。除了1999年在纽约股市一段短 暂而几乎无利可图的经历外，多年来我对 于投资股市向来十分谨慎。我最值得骄傲

晏格文

的投资是于1995年买入的微软股票，当

晏格文先生是一位资深媒体人士、书籍作家、翻译

1999年卖出时，股价已经涨到最初买入

家、出版人、和音乐家在中国香港和内地已经生活了

价的10倍。在2008年，我曾以30美元的

近30年。晏格文先生以其独特的视角和对中国的深深

价格买入苹果股票，如今的股价已经翻了

的敬意，从第一次造访大陆的1978年以来，一直不

四、五倍，然而我既没有买入更多，也没

断地对中国历史、语言、经济和传统文化进行深度探

有将其抛出。以上就是我目前唯一持有的

究与传播。

股票。 中国的股票市场对我而言甚至要比纽

1973年晏格文先生从英国移居香港，担任南华早报

约和香港的股市更加动荡不安，因此我从

记者和编辑。1976年，他加入了英国著名新闻集

未开通过大陆的股票账户，今后也无意参

团路透社。之后担任路透社北京分社社长（1985-

与。当中国的股市一度蓬勃发展似乎没有

1987年），东京首席记者（1987-1989），并于1990-1995年担任路透社亚洲主

封顶之势时，我也曾经略有后悔之意。但

编。1996年，他在香港和上海成立了中媒集团。2008年至2010年，兼任北京《新

是保持谨慎总会在今后的某一时刻令你获

华财经》的责任主编。晏格文先生陆续出版了多部著作，包括《老上海记》和《步

得回报。

行中国》等。他翻译的金庸武侠小说《书剑恩仇录》由牛津大学出版社于2004年出

股市如赌博，而我对真正的赌博也 同样没有兴趣。我曾经去过位于摩纳哥蒙

版。他的高知名度的《晏子书斋》则出版与收录了近百本100多年前的外国人在中国 的、关于中国历史人文与自身经历的书籍。

特卡洛的皇家赌场，在兑换了一枚10法 郎的最小筹码后，我将赌注押在了轮盘

China Economic Review | September 2015

81

LISTING Accounting Firms

Mansion, B12 Chaoyangmenwai

Fax: +86 21 2890 5200

Tel: +86 21 5812 9888

Avenue

admissions@ceibs.edu

Fax:+86 21 5812 9000

Chaoyang, Beijing

Shanghai Jiaotong-Euromed

British International School

Tel: +86 10 5922 0747

Management AEMBA Program

Shanghai - Pudong Campus

Fax: +86 10 5879 7621

(MBA/EMBA)

www.bisshanghai.com

Shanghai

www.aemba.com.cn

600 Cambridge Forest New

Air France - Shanghai Office

Tel: +86 21 5230 1598

Town, Lane 2729 Hunan Road,

www.airfrance.com.cn

Fax: +86 21 5230 3357

Pudong

3901B Ciro’s Plaza

aemba@sjtu.edu.cn

Tel: +86 21 5812 7455

388 Nanjing Road West Harris Corporate Services Ltd

Tel: +86 21 6334 5702

www.harrissec.com.cn

mail.corporate.sha@airfrance.fr

International Schools

Shanghai

Shanghai Office Suite 904, OOCL Plaza,

Grand Mercure Hongqiao

Business Schools

Shanghai

841 Yan An Zhong Road,

www.grandmercurehongqiao.com

Jing’An

369 Xian Xia Road, Chang Ning Shanghai

Shanghai, PRC Tel: +86 21 6289 8813

Beijing

Tel: +86 21 5153 3300

Saint Paul American School

Fax: +86 21 5153 3555

info.sh@harrissec.com.cn

Manchester Business School

www.stpaulschool.cn

reservation@

Beijing Office

Part-time Global MBA

18 Guan Ao Yuan, Longgang

grandmercurehongqiao-shanghai.

Room 2302, E-Tower, No.12

http://china.portals.mbs.ac.uk

Road Qinghe, Haidian

com

Guanghua Road, Chaoyang,

Starts December 2013,

Beijing 100192

Beijing, PRC

Shanghai

PRC

Tel: +86 10 6591 8087

Suite 628, 6/F Shanghai Centre,

Tel: +86 137 1881 0084

Fax: +86 10 8599 9882

1376 Nanjing Road West,

spasadmissions@gmail.com

info.bj@harrissec.com.cn

Shanghai

Harrow International School

Tel: +86 21 6279 8660

Beijing

mba@mbs-worldwide.ac.cn

www.harrowbeijing.cn

Fax:+86 21 6289 8816

Airlines Beijing

No. 5, 4th Block, Anzhenxili

Lufthansa German Airlines

Chaoyang, Beijing 100029

Zhejiang Narada Grand Hotel

Beijing Office

PRC

www.wtcgh.com

www.lufthansa.com.cn

Tel: +86 10 6444 8900

122 Shuguang Road,Hangzhou,

S101 Beijing Lufthansa Center

Fax: +86 10 6445 3870

China 310007

50 Liangmaqiao Road

agan@harrowbeijing.cn

Tel: +86 0571 8799 0888

Shanghai

hotel@wtcgh.com

Chaoyang

82

Hotels

Tel: +86 10 6468 8838

Tongji University SIMBA

Livingston American School

Northwest Airlines Airport

A309 Sino-French Center, Tongji

www.laschina.org

Office

University, 1239 Siping Road

580 Ganxi Road

Beijing

www.nwa.com

Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 21 6238 3511

Beijing Deco Personal Services

32271 Passenger Terminal 2,

Tel: +86 21 6598 0610

Fax:+86 21 5218 0390

Ltd.

Capital International Airport

Fax: +86 21 6598 3540

Shanghai Community

china.adecco.com

Tel: +86 010 6459 7827

China Europe Int’l Business

International School (Pudong

D 9/F Tower II China Central

KLM - Greater China Regional

School

Campus)

Place, 79 Jianguo Road,

Office

(CEIBS) MBA

www.scischina.org

Chaoyang, Beijing

www.klm.com.cn

www.ceibs.edu

800 Xiuyan Road, Kangqiao,

Tel: +86 010 5920 4320

1609-1611 Kuntai International

Tel: +86 21 2890 5555

Pudong

Fax: +86 010 5920 4322

China Economic Review | September 2015

HR/Recruitment

LISTING Manpower & Standard Human

Avenue Pudong, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6087 1515

enquiry.lpcp@lansonplace.com

Resources (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

Tel: +86 21 5049 1234

Fax: +86 21 6087 1955

Tower 23, Central Park

Beijing Branch

Fax: +86 21 5049 1111

Leasing Enquiries

No. 6 Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

2/F, E1 Office Building Oriental

shanghai.grand@hyatt.com

Tel: +86 21 6087 2499

Chaoyang, Beijing 100020

Plaza, 1 DongChang’an Street

Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels

Tel: +86 21 6087 2488

Tel: +86 10 8588 9588

Dongcheng, Beijing

& Resorts PTE. Ltd. Shanghai

Tel: +86 10 8518 8816

Office

bj@manpower.com.cn

www.starwoodhotels.com

Language Schools

Fax: +86 10 8588 9599

Real Estate/ Serviced Apartments

Shanghai Lanson Place Jin Qiao Serviced

19/F Phase 1 Huanmao Building

Residences

999 Huaihai Road Central,

enquiry.lpjq@lansonplace.com

MandarinKing

Shanghai

No. 27 & 28, Lane 399 Zao

www.mandarinking.cn

Tel: +86 21 6141 7799

Zhuang Road, Pudong, Shanghai

Shanghai

Fax: +86 21 6391 8220

Tel: +86 21 5013 3888

No.555 West Nanjing Road, Room 1207 12th Floor, Plaza

Savills Residence Century Park

PR Agencies

www.savillsresidence.com

555 Shanghai, PRC

Ketchum Newscan Public

Oakwood Residence Shanghai

No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu

Course Inquiry: 400 618 6685

Relations

www.oakwoodasia.com

Road Pudong

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 1063

www.ketchum.com

103 Wuning Road, Putuo District,

Shanghai 201303

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 8671

Shanghai

Shanghai 200063

PRC

study@mandarinking.cn

218 Tianmu Road West

China

Tel: +86 21 5197 6688

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Tel: +86 21 6183 0830

info@savillsresidence.com

Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

reservations.ors@oakwoodasia.

Beijing

Beijing

com

Hotel New Otani Chang Fu Gong

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

www.cfgbj.com

Chaoyang

26 Jianguomenwai Avenue,

Tel: +86 10 5907 0055

Chaoyang,Beijing

Fax: +86 10 5907 0188

Hotels

Real Estate/ Business Park

Tel: +86 10 5877 5555 Fax: +86 10 6513 9810

Real Estate/Mixed-Use

cfg@cfgbj.com

Mapletree Business City

Kempinski Hotel Beijing

Shanghai & VivoCity Shanghai

Park View Apartment

Lufthansa Center

www.mbcshanghai.com

wwww.parkview-sh.com

www.kempinski.com/beijing

www.vivocityshanghai.com

Block 1-4, No. 888

Sandhill Plaza

50 Liangmaqiao Road,

Junction of Gudai Road and Qixin

Changning Road

www.sandhillplaza.cn

Chaoyang, Beijing

Road

Shanghai, 200042

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

Tel: +86 10 6465 3388

Leasing Enquiries:

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

Hi-Tech Park

Fax: +86 10 6410 4080

Tel (office): +86 21 6037 8186

leasing@parkview-sh.com

Shanghai 201303

Kempinski Hotel Wuxi

Tel (retail): +86 21 6037 8198

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

www.kempinski.com/wuxi 18 Yonghe Road, Nanchang

Leasing@sandhill.cn

Real Estate/Commercial Real Estate/HOPSCA

Wuxi, Jiangsu

Jing An Kerry Centre

Tel: +86 510 8108 8888

www.jingankerrycentre.com

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

Fax: +86 510 8108 8000

Unit 901, 9F, Tower 1

Development Co., Ltd

info.wuxi@kempinski.com

Jing An Kerry Centre

www.antinganting.com.cn

Grand Hyatt Shanghai

1515 Nanjing Road West

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

www.shanghai.grand.hyatt.com

Shanghai

Lanson Place Central Park

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

Jin Mao Tower, 88 Century

China 200040

Residences

Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

China Economic Review | September 2015

83

LISTING 11/F, Carlton Building, No. 21

Hua Yuan Shi Qiao Road, Pudong,

Xuhui District

Huanghe Road, Huangpu District

Lujiazui

Grand Gateway [New]

Shui On Plaza

Plaza 66

48/F, Grand Gateway, No.1

Shanghai

12/F, Shui On Plaza, No.333

15/F, Tower 2, Plaza 66, No.1266

Hongqiao Road, Xuhui District

Shanghai Aurora Office

Middle Huaihai Road,

West Nanjing Road,

Shanghai Mart Hongqiao

Equipment

Huangpu District

Jing’an District

2/F, ShanghaiMart, No.2299 West

388 Jiaxin Road, Jiading

One Corporate Avenue

Eco City

Yan’an Road, Changning District

Shanghai

15/F, One Corporate Avenue,

9/F, Eco City, No.1788 West

Maxdo Centre [New]

Tel: +86 21 5916 4588

No.222 Hubin Road,

Nanjing Road, Jing’an District

43/F, Maxdo Centre, No.8 Xingyi

Fax: +86 21 5990 3429

Huangpu District

Shanghai Centre

Road, Changning District

Bund Centre

5/F, West Office Tower Shanghai

Silver Centre

18/F, Bund Centre, No.222 East

Centre, No.1376 West Nanjing

No.1388, North Shaan Xi Road,

Yan’an Road, Huangpu District

Road, Jing’an District

Putuo District

Raffles City

Garden Square [New]

Central Towers

51/F, Raffles City, No.268 Middle

11/F, Garden Square, No.968

11F, Tower B, Central Towers,

Xizang Road, Huangpu District

West Beijing Road,

No.567 Lan Gao Road,

The Headquarters

Jing’an District

Putuo District

25/F, The Headquarters Building,

Nanjing West Road

Zhabei Centro

No.168 Middle Xizang Road,

18/F, Shanghai Oriental Centre,

22/F, Zhabei Centro, No.568

Huangpu District

No.699 West Nanjing Road,

Hengfeng Road, Zhabei District

Hong Kong Plaza

Jing’an District

One Prime

26/F, Hong Kong Plaza, No.283

Yueda 889

25/F, One Prime, No.360 Wu Jin

Middle Huai Hai Road,

8/F, Yueda 889, No.1111

Road, Hongkou District

Huangpu District

Changshou Road, Jing’an District

Harbour One

Silver Court

The Tower

16/F, Harbour One, No.1080

3/F, Silver Court Office Tower,

14/F, Jinjiang Xiangyang Tower,

Dong Da Ming Road,

No.85 Taoyuan Road,

No.993 West Nanjing Road,

Hongkou District

Huangpu District

Jing’an District

Baoland Plaza [New]

Fax: +86 21 6950 2833

Service Providers

Serviced Offices

Shanghai Tower [Coming Soon]

Henderson 688 [Coming Soon]

16/F, Tower B, Baoland Square,

Regus Serviced Office

29/F, Shanghai Tower, Dongtai

16/F, Henderson 688, No.688

No.688 Dalian Road,

• Flexible office leases from 1

Road, Pudong, Lujiazui

West Nanjing Road,

Yangpu District

Jin Mao Tower

Jing’an District

KIC Yangpu

31/F, Jin Mao Tower, No.88 Shiji

ICC

9/F, Tower 12, KIC III, No.333

Avenue, Pudong, Lujiazui

7/F, One ICC, Shanghai ICC,

Songhu Road, Yangpu District

21st Century

No.999 Middle Huaihai Road,

The Hub [New]

day to 1 year • Quick and easy to set up for 1-200 people • Prices from RMB180 per month

84

6/F, The 21st Century Tower,

Xuhui District

5/F, The Hub, No.29 Suhong

• Find more on Regus.cn

No.210 Shiji Avenue, Pudong,

CCIG International Plaza

Road, Minhang District

• Tel: 400 120 1207

Lujiazui

12/F, Building A, CCIG Int’l Plaza,

BEIJING (20 LOCATIONS)

SHANGHAI (39 LOCATIONS)

Aurora Plaza

No.331 North Caoxi Road,

Lei Shing Hong Plaza [New]

Central Plaza [New]

11/F, Aurora Plaza, No.99

Xuhui District

5/F, Tower C, Lei Shing Hong

2/F, Central Plaza, No.227 North

Fucheng Road, Pudong, Lujiazui

Huaihai Plaza [New]

Plaza, No.8 Wangjing Street,

Huangpi Road, Huangpu District

Standard Chartered Lujiazui

28/F, Huaihai Plaza, No.1045

Chaoyang District

Henderson 155 [Coming Soon]

5/F, Standard Chartered Tower,

Middle Huihai Road,

Sun Dong An Plaza [New]

20/F, Henderson Metropolitan,

No.201 Shiji Avenue, Pudong,

Xuhui District

7/F, Office Tower 2, Sun Dong

No. 155, Tianjin Road,

Lujiazui

CCIG Int’l Plaza Lv 17 [New]

An Plaza, No.138 Wangfujing,

Huangpu District

BEA Finance Tower

17/F, Building A, CCIG Int’l Plaza,

Avenue, Dongcheng District

Carlton Building [Coming Soon]

15/F, BEA Finance Tower, No.66

No.331 North Caoxi Road,

Zhongyu Mansion [New]

China Economic Review | September 2015

LISTING 6/F, Zhongyu Mansion, No.6

West, 5/F, China Life Tower,

Avenue, Tianhe District

35/F, Panglin Plaza No.2002

North Workers Stadium Road,

No.16 Chaoyangmenwai Street,

Tianhe Teem Tower

Jiabin Road Luohu District

Chaoyang District

Chaoyang District

13/F, Teem Tower, No.208

DALIAN (2 LOCATIONS)

Diplomatic [New]

IFC

Tianhe Road, Tianhe District

World Trade Center

17/F, Tower E, Liangmaqiao,

10/F, IFC East Tower, No.8

Guangdong International

12/F, World Trade Center No.25

Diplomatic Office Building, 3rd

Jianguomenwai Street,

Building

Tongxing Street

Embassy District,

Chaoyang District

7/F, Main Tower, Guangdong Int’l

Zhongshan District

Chaoyang District

Prosper Center

Building, No.339 East Huanshi

Xiwang Tower

Kerry Centre - South Tower

6/F, Tower 2, Prosper Center,

Road, Yuexiu District

9/F, Xiwang Tower No.136

[New]

No.5 Guang Hua Road,

G.T. Land Plaza - Tower F

Zhongshan Road

10/F, South Tower, Kerry Centre,

Chaoyang District

[Coming Soon]

Zhongshan District

No.1 Guanghua Road,

Financial St. Excel Centre

22/F, Tower F, G.T. Land Plaza,

QINGDAO

Chaoyang District

12/F, Financial Street Excel,

No. 85 Huacheng Avenue,

China Overseas Building

Landgent Building [Coming

Centre, No.6 Wudinghou Street,

Tianhe District

7/F, China Overseas Building

Soon]

Xicheng District

Lai Fung Tower [Coming Soon]

No.76 Yanji Road

5/F, Block A, Landgent Center,

NCI Centre

8/F, Lai Fung Tower, No.761 East

Shibei District

No.20 East Middle 3rd Ring Road,

15/F, NCI Tower, No.12A

Dongfeng Road, Yuexiu District

SHENYANG

Chaoyang District

Jianguomenwai Street,

SHENZHEN (8 LOCATIONS)

Fortune Plaza

China World Tower 3

Chaoyang District

Futian Anlian

17/F, Fortune Plaza Tower A

15/F, China World Tower 3,

Taikang Financial Tower

26/F, Anlian Centre No.4018

No.61 Beizhan Road

No.1 Jianguomenwai Street,

23/F, Taikang Financial Tower,

Jintian Road

Shenhe District

Chaoyang District

No.38 East Third Ring Road,

Futian District

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

Lufthansa Centre

Chaoyang District

A8 Building

Golden Valley Centre

C203, Lufthansa Centre, No.50

Zhongguancun Metropolis

15/F, A8 Building No.1002

11/F, Building 1, Golden Valley

Liangmaqiao Road,

Tower

Keyuan Road Tech Zone,

Centre Jinwan Plaza, No.1

Chaoyang District

7/F, Metropolis Tower, No.2

Nanshan District

Binjiang Avenue

Kerry Centre

Dongsan Street, Zhongguancun

Futian NEO

Heping District

11/F, North Tower, Kerry Centre,

Xi Zone, Haidian District

44/F, NEO Tower A No.6011

Tianjin Centre

No.1 Guanghua Road,

GUANGZHOU (9 LOCATIONS)

Shennan Avenue

8/F, Tianjin Centre No.219

Chaoyang District

The Place [New]

Futian District

Nanjing Road

Pacific Century Place

8/F, The Placec, No.618 Xingang

SCC

Heping District

14/F, IBM Tower, No.2A North

East Road, Haizhu District

7/F, Tower A, SCC Financial

SHIJIAZHUANG

Workers Stadium Road,

Pearl River Tower

Centre, Junction of Houhai

Suning Life Square

Chaoyang District

21/F, Pearl River Tower, No.15

Avenue & First Haide Avenue

12/F, Suning Life Square No.77

China Central Place

West Zhujiang Road,

Nanshan District

Zhongshan Road

9/F, Tower 2, China Central

Tianhe District

New World Centre

Xinhua District

Place, No.79 Jianguo Road,

City Development Plaza

23/F, New World Centre No.6009

ZHENGZHOU

Chaoyang District

25/F, City Development Plaza,

Yitian Road

Kineer IFC

Parkview Green

No.189 West Ti Yu Road,

Futian District

18/F, Building 4 No.88 East

15/F, Office Building A Parkview,

Tianhe District

Times Financial Centre

Jinshui Road

Green, No.9 Dongdaqiao Road,

Tianhe Center Plaza

14/F Times Financial Centre No.

Zhengdong New District

Chaoyang District

Tower A, 23/F, Center Plaza,

4001 Shennan Avenue

XI’AN (2 LOCATIONS)

China Life Tower

No.161 West Linhe Road,

Futian District

Metropolis

5/F, China Life Tower, No.16

Tianhe District

New Times Plaza

11/F, Tower A, Xi’an Chang’an

Chaoyangmenwai Street,

G.T.Land Plaza

3/F, New Times Plaza No.1 Taizi

Metropolis Centre, No.88 Nan

Chaoyang District

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1, G.T,

Road Shekou District

Guan Zheng Street,

China Life - West

Land Plaza, No.85 Huacheng,

Panglin Plaza

Beilin District

China Economic Review | September 2015

85

LISTING

86

Capita Mall Office

HNA & Poly International

10/F, Nison Plaza No.205 Suzhou

DONGGUAN

11/F, Capita Mall No.64 South

Centre

West Avenue SIP

TBA Tower

Second Ring Road

35/F, HNA Poly Plaza No.235

HANGZHOU (3 LOCATIONS)

46/F, TBA Tower No.11

Yanta District

Minsheng Road

Delixi Mansion

Dongguan Avenue

CHENGDU (5 LOCATIONS)

Yuzhong District

9/F, Building A, Delixi Mansion

Dongcheng District

China Resources Building

World Financial Centre

No.28 Xueyuan Road

ZHUHAI

32/F, China Resources Building

19/F, Chongqing WFC No.188

Xihu District

Zhuhai WFC

No.10 Shuangqing Road

Minzu Road

Euro America Center

12/F, WFC No.1009 Middle

Chenghua District

Yuzhong District

4/F, Euro America Center No.18

Jiuzhou Avenue Jida

Yandlord Landmark

NANJING (3 LOCATIONS)

Jiaogong Road

Xiangzhou District

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Jinling - Asia Pacific Tower

Xihu District

XIAMEN

Building No.1 Section 2, South

8/F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Foreign Economy & Trade

International Plaza

Renmin Road

Tower No.2 Hanzhong Road

Plaza

8/F, International Plaza No.8

Jinjiang District

Gulou District

8/F, Building B, Zhejiang FET

Lujiang Road

IFS

Suning Wisdom Valley

No.468 Yan’an Road

Siming District

25/F, Tower 1, IFS No.1 Hongxing

8/F, Building E07 Suning Wisdom

Xiacheng District

KUNMING

Road Section 3

Valley No.301 Hanzhongmen

CHANGSHA

Master

Jinjiang District

Avenue

Wall Street

16/F, East Tower

Square One

Gulou District

17/F, Wall Street Centre No.288

Dongfangshouzuo No.1

11/F, Square One No.18 Dongyu

Kingsley

Furong Middle Road Section One,

Chongren Street Jinbi Road

Street

13/F, Kingsley Int’l Mansion

Kaifu District

Wuhua District

Jinjiang District

No.169 Hanzhong Road

NANCHANG

Times Plaza

Qinhuai District

Yangyang Spring

26/F, Times Plaza No.2 Zongfu

NINGBO (2 LOCATIONS)

15/F, Tower 1, Yangyang Spring

Road

China Life

Investment Building No.66

Jinjiang District

18/F, China Life Tower No.777

EastYangming Road

WUHAN (3 LOCATIONS)

Lingqiao Road

Donghu District

Wuhan Tiandi

Haishu District

FUZHOU

8/F, Corporate Centre 5 No.1628

Raffles City

Rongdu Int’l Building

Zhong Shan Avenue

8/F, Raffles City No.99 South

10/F, Rongdu Int’l Building,

Jiang’an District

Daqing Road

Intersection of Wusi Road &

Hua’s IFC

Jiangbei District

Qingcheng Road

10/F, Hua’s IFC No.193 Hong

WUXI (2 LOCATIONS)

Gulou District

Kong Road

Hongdou International Plaza

FOSHAN

Jianghan District

25/F, Hongdou Int’l Plaza No.531

Huahui Building

Poly Plaza

Zhongshan Road

15/F, Huahui Building No.46

18/F, Wuhan Poly Plaza No.99

Chong’an District

Zumiao Road

Zhongnan Road

Suning Life Square

Chancheng District

Wuchang District

11/F, North Tower Suning Life

CHONGQING (4 LOCATIONS)

Square No.109 Middle Renmin

To have your company featured in these pages, please contact our

PICC

Road

representatives at:

10/F PICC Building, Block-D

Chong’an District

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Jiangbei District

SUZHOU (2 LOCATIONS)

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Yangtze River International

Jinghope Plaza

࢟જ Tel: +86 21 53859061

Plaza

11/F, Tower 2, Jinghope Plaza

2205, Shanghai Plaza, No.138 Huaihaizhong Rd, Shanghai, China, 200021

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ᒦਪ࿟਱ှઠ਱ᒦവ138੓࿟਱ਓ‫ޝ‬2205 ᎆ‫ܠ‬ǖ200021

Nan’an District

Nison Plaza

China Economic Review | September 2015

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