CER Dec. 2015 by Seana Liu

DECEMBER 2015 VOL. 26, NO. 4 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2015年12月刊

Does bigger = better? 大数据营销时代 • Dragons in Diamond Village • 二胎政策下的中国婴幼儿快消品行业 • Seeing past the smog • 投资中国消费热潮

EDITOR’ S NOTE | 编者的话

哪

怕你还只是一个学生，都完全可以在学校随便拉动三两好友，开发一个app，或者组建一个bbs论坛，哪怕只是一个微信公众号，

都极有可能让数千计、数以万计的用户群使用到你的产品，并且凭借这个产品创立一个公司赚取源源不断的利润。这种以轻资产撬动大规模并以几何指数增长的创富模式在以前的时代完全是不可想象的，所以，这就是互联网的威力。现在的产品已经不再需要经过那么多繁琐的层级渠道来分发，互联网的出现直接摒弃了所有的中间环节，产品可以凭借最快捷的方式触达消费者，通过互联网的渠道撬动数以亿计的用户群体，并且在如此庞大的用户群体里面找到属于产品的目标用户，并迅速占领市场。然而，网络如此的发达，年轻人在各种外界信息的轰炸和驱使下根本无法静下心去做自己真正喜欢的事，或者说很难坚持自己的调性去生活了，因为他们不再敢去触碰被世俗所认定没有意义、或者不可能会成功、不能赚钱的事情，生怕稍微一闪失就再也跟不上别人的脚步，所

Editor-at-large 出版人 Graham Earnshaw

Co-Publisher 联合出版人 Alex Wong Shiu Chung

Executive Editor 主编 Graham Earnshaw

Deputy Executive Editor 副主编 Gao Fei Associate Editor 编辑 Rainy Chen, Skye Sun

以他们需要争取更多的时间去围绕被认为最有可能成功的路来为自己的人生作安排。并且，现在的社会竞争也和以前不一样了，信息流通的便捷与快速，让四面八方的人们都能够平等地获取信息，竞争达到前所未有的惨烈，如果我们还像以前一样滋润地过日子，那么，离死亡也就不远了。

Art Editors 美术编辑 Jason Wong Sales Director 销售总监 Ralph Wang

Account Managers 销售经理 Jerry Cheng

我并不排斥这样的价值观— 人需有责任心，不要过分安于现状，必要时一定要积极进取，争取成为人生赢家。但是，我也坚持认为人生不能只有钱或成功二字，该怀揣理想还得怀揣，不到最后一步绝不罢休，若为求成功而放弃爱好、理想，这种方式换来的成功，宁可不要。

Distribution Manager 发行经理 Seana Liu Publisher 出版机构 China Economic Review Publishing Address 地址 The Plaza Building, 102 Lee High Road

London, SE13 5PT, England

his issue of China Economic Review takes an in-depth look at the issue of Big Data, a process of collecting information

and using the results for commercial purposes which is chang Room 1801, 18F, Public Bank Centre,

ing retail markets at lightning speed. The major Chinese online

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players, including Alibaba and Baidu are involved, and the sig-

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activity number crunching” is only slowly becoming clear. All that is certain at this point is that the impact will be greater than we think. Also in this issue, a fascinating interview with David Bandurski, a former colleague of ours, on the crucial topic of residency registration and how China is likely to deal with the results of three decades of coastal cities relying on migrant workers to build their economies.

China Economic Review | December 2015

目录 CONTENT

Cover story Does bigger = better? China’s big data dreams may be in for a rude awakening

新观察

The House View

12 在经济新常态中寻找机遇

8 A mixed bag

16 聚焦

News Highlights 14 Newsbriefs

封面故事 26 大数据营销时代 31 什么是数据分析做不了的？

20 Does bigger = better?

专访

Interview

33 精彩的大数据时代

32 The Era of Big Data

文化地图

Culture Map

38 从历史看中国楼市

36 Historical Perspective on

60 九洲新世界 64 迪士尼历经92载，缔造传奇王国

Cover Story

China Economic Review | December 2015

China’s Property Market 58 Jiuzhou New World 62 Disney’s Legendary Kingdom

目录 CONTENT

26 封面故事

大数据营销时代

品牌专访 67 优质睡眠健康能量之源

海外地产 68 海外置业持续升温马来西亚深受中国买家青睐

话题

52 72

70 上海超越香港

Economy 42 Dragons in Diamond Village

高端品牌丰富度亚太第一

50 Seeing past the smog

72 二胎政策下的中国婴幼儿快消品行业

53 Oversupplied, underperforming

74 投资中国消费热潮

看中国 77 冬日思考

China Economic Review | December 2015

Look at China

76 Cold

体验不刻意的奢华让世界汇聚于此坐落于中国（上海）自由贸易试验区的地标性建筑，上海外高桥喜来登酒店拥有451间装饰典雅的客房及套房。酒店更有超过2600平方米会议空间，其中包含了一间1000平方米，高8.6米的无柱大宴会厅及9间宽敞的多功能厅，无论是10人的私密会议或是1000人的晚宴、婚宴还是国际会议，上海外高桥喜来登酒店为您每次活动成功举办提供理想场所。

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THE HOUSE VIE W

A mixed bag Asset-backed securities hold promise and peril for China’s capital market

nn Rutledge was in Hong Kong when Mao died, got in on the ground floor of economic reforms and helped set up the Hong Kong futures exchange before going into asset-backed securities (ABS)—the same financial tools widely blamed for the global financial crisis in 2008. So you might expect her to have long since ceased being surprised by China’s financial markets. Not so. When she applied for a grant with the SWIFT Institute to study China’s asset-backed securities market, Rutledge said, “I assumed the Chinese market would look similar to the US market, but with Chinese-flavored assets… but I figured wrong.” What she found was a burgeoning sector beset by legal vagaries and bisected by dueling regulators and asset classes, one that could potentially do for China what it did for the United States: Supply companies with far greater liquidity while providing investors with an asset class that can be tailored to suit their risk profile, all (ideally) without culminating in a crisis like the one in America that rocked markets the world over. While still relatively small, in recent years the securitization market in China has grown as rapidly as government quotas will allow. If given more room for healthy growth, ABS could help pull a substantial sum out of China’s notorious shadow banking sector – where

China Economic Review | December 2015

wealth management products often act like ABS, but lack any semblance of transparency. Kingsley Ong, a partner at the law firm Eversheds International who helped draft China’s asset-backed security laws, said that based on rising demand for better investment opportunities, the potential for securitization in China was “practically unlimited”. But as Rutledge and other observers have also pointed out, a lack of data on the nuts and bolts of the great majority of deals in this emerging market, together with widespread inexperience among investors who rely on caution instead of expertise, raise questions about its influence on the economy at large.

“I don’t want to sound like an alarmist—I’m not. I’m a proponent of [ABS],” Rutledge said. “But… when people want to see a market grow they’ll say anything, and they’ll turn a blind eye to things that are obviously problematic.”

Stop-start progress China’s securitization market began in April of 2005, when the central bank and banking regulator established a pilot market and regulations. Those were suspended in 2009, by which time the role of American mortgagebacked securities in kick-starting what had become a global financial crisis had

THE HOUSE VIE W

become common knowledge—a move even more critical voices on China’s economy say made sense. “While I am sometimes a critic, I will say I can understand China saying ‘hey, we better figure out this product and this market before we allow it to go full bore in ours,’” said Christopher Balding, professor of economics at Peking University. Once the dust had settled from America’s financial implosion, Beijing looked once more to securitization as a promising financing tool, and in May of 2012 revived the market—though it forbade the structures (re-securitizations and synthetics) that caused the crisis in the US. Eddie Hu, a partner at the Shanghai office of consultancy King & Wood Mallesons who has advised banks, auto finance companies and financial firms on asset-backed securitizations, chalked a recent increase in issuance up to an

easing of regulations. Before 2015, firms had to get case-by-case approval from the authorities; now they can sell freely once they’ve registered regulators. “The administrative process has been simplified, incentivizing those who originate and issue to do more securitization,” Hu said. Since the ban was lifted, issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) in China has grown by leaps and bounds: In 2014 China overtook South Korea to become the largest securitization market in Asia, and this year issuance had topped RMB235 billion (US$36.88 billion) by late October, up 18.5% for the year to date, according to Bloomberg data. “It’s grown very rapidly,” Balding said, “however in comparison to things like bank lending or even the general bond market… it’s simply tiny.”

Structural complexity Balding attributed that relatively minuscule market size to two main factors: A preference among Chinese investors for less complex financial products and, perhaps most vitally, a lack of understanding of what exactly they are. In this many Chinese investors are not alone, as the apparent complexity of ABS is among the many attributes that help make the sector seem impenetrable to outsiders. An asset-backed security essentially takes contractual future cash flows or expected stable operating cash flows and converts them into immediately fungible funds by borrowing against those flows and the assets that generate them. For example, as has been done with certain expressways in China, the company that owns a toll road can use that road as collateral in order to get financing from investors now based

on the income it has yet to make from tolls paid by drivers who will use said road. To actually come up with the money, the company can set up an issuing financing vehicle that offers interest-bearing securities to investors based on those expected cash flows from future toll payments. Once investor financing is secured, the vehicle will actually buy the toll road from the company—so the company gets money now, and the financial instrument begins directing money from toll payments directly to the investors holding the securities until the promised payouts are paid off in full. If the cash flows from the toll road dry up, the investors can take the road and sell it off as compensation. And because the company doesn’t actually own the road anymore, it can’t stop the issuer from transferring ownership to those investors. A financial institution typically helps set up the issuer – known as a special purpose vehicle (SPV) – that issues securities to investors, often in different batches that are classified based on their level of risk, which is tied to priority of repayment. The risk level of each batch is certified by one or more ratings agencies. The credit rating for such securities can be higher than that of the company from which they originated because the risk being evaluated is that of the cash flows themselves. “So your company might not be triple-A, but you can still issue bonds that are triple-A,” Evershare’s Ong said. “That is a phenomenal advantage.” Thus, securitization can enable a company to raise funds more easily than might be otherwise possible through a loan based on its balance sheet. It also creates a new class

China Economic Review | December 2015

THE HOUSE VIE W

of investment with risk portioned out to suit the tastes of investors, which can range from more cautious pension funds to less risk-averse private hedge funds. But Beijing has added another wrinkle to the proceedings by separating ABS into two categories, administered by two different regulators.

Market landscape Beijing has added another wrinkle to the proceedings by separating ABS into two categories administered by two different regulators. The first, most-favored variety falls under the Credit Assets Securitization Scheme (CASS) and trades on China’s interbank market. Here, assets originate with banks, trust companies, lenders and auto finance firms, securities for which are issued by trust companies on their behalf to be snapped up by institutional investors. CASS is also the bigger and more liquid market: As of June 25, 12% of all 2016 Chinese securitizations to date were CASS, accounting for 82.2% of the total principal issuance of RMB605 billion, according to Rutledge’s findings, published in a working paper published in September by the SWIFT institute. Of the 127 CASS deals analyzed in the working paper, nearly three quarters were collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)—securities backed by a pool of debt, typically sourced from small- and medium-sized enterprises. The nextlargest cohort, auto loans, stood at just over 10%. Yet while similar CLO offerings are priced lower than general-purpose corporate bonds in US and UK markets, in China they aren’t. “What that seems to indicate is that

China Economic Review | December 2015

either the companies aren’t selling the [securitized] bonds properly… or the investors don’t believe what the companies are saying, they don’t believe that the securitized bond is giving them anything more tangible in return,” Balding said.

Investing in the dark The reason behind such puzzling valuation of the interbank market’s most popular ABS offering may lie in a shortage of two key assets: Information and experience. Rutledge, also an adjunct assistant professor at the Hong Kong University of Science & Technology and the founder of securitized asset assessor R&R Consulting, said that her firm only dealt with deals for which performance data was available, narrowing the options considerably. “The only deals that I can get what we call servicer data - what we call underlying performance data - on are coming out of deals that foreign manufacturers are doing, specifically the auto manufacturers,” she said. That attraction stems largely from the fact that reporting for auto loan ABS issued by foreign firms is standardized, and includes information on the assets generating the cash flows in addition to sectoral exposure and . Disclosures from automakers like Nissan, BMW and Volkswagen allow ABS investors to determine how many loans are delinquent, how many have defaulted, the likelihood of being repaid in full on time. Indeed, Hu said the performance record of auto loans’ underlying asset pools was “quite good compared with other corporate loans because they’re very diversified,” making for a perform-

ance record “that will be attractive to international investors.” For the roughly 90% of the CASS market that isn’t backed by auto loans, this vital performance data isn’t made public, although it is collected by the China Central Depository & Clearing, the official clearing company for the interbank market.

Trust issues Outside of China’s interbank market, ABS growth is being held back by the uncertain legal status of the legal framework currently available for use by nonfinancial institutions in securitizing assets. The question comes down to the kind of special-purpose vehicle that is created to issue securities to investors on behalf of a company and which takes on ownership of its assets. In short, while the tool used by financial institutions (a special-purpose trust) is wellestablished in PRC law, the only one available to non-financial firms isn’t. Under the current setup, known as the Asset Backed Specific Plan (ABSP) model, these companies have to use contracts to transfer ownership of assets. The resulting ABS cannot be traded on the interbank market, but can be offered to retail investors and even listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. But the grounds on which those underlying contracts are permitted only amount to administrative rules, which can be overruled by a host of higher regulations. As laid out in a recent study of China’s securitization law published in the Capital Markets Law Journal and coauthored by Ong, such rules “may have different levels of enforcement in different parts of China, and may be subject

THE HOUSE VIE W

to policy changes over time, or even competing political interests.” That means the rights of investors who hold ABS aren’t guaranteed payment, which forestalls development of securitizations by non-financial institutions any time soon. As the study’s authors write, “[the] securitization industry may need to remain patient.” This helps explain why as of late June, when data for the SWIFT working paper was gathered, principal issuance in the ABSP market had grown only 3.4 times that seen prior to the 2008 market hiatus, while average deal size had fallen to RMB3.87 billion (US$607.7 million), only 56% of its pre-freeze level. Meanwhile, ABS trading on China’s interbank market has expanded to gigantic proportions by comparison: As of June 25, principal issuance of CASS had grown to RMB497.6 billion (US$78.09 billion), eight times what it was in 2008, while average deal size grew just over 1% to RMB3.29 billion.

Untapped potential Eddie Hu at King & Wood Mallesons said that the clearer picture for investors of underlying assets and risk pointed to brighter prospects going forward of ABS issued by financial institutions. But even here he was conservative, citing recent cuts by the central bank to China’s benchmark lending rate as easing any pressure mainland banks were under to find more funding. “I don’t think there will be a leaping increase in issuance numbers or size, but I think the number of issuances and issuance size will increase gradually in the coming years,” Hu said, pointing in particular to local commercial banks at the city level and below as likely to try their hand at ABS.

That is looking more likely in light of recent regulatory easing: In June, Reuters reported that the China Banking Regulatory Commission had granted provincial branches permission to green-light new issuance for cities’ commercial banks for their ABS plans— though big banks apparently still needed issuance approval from the commission’s headquarters in Beijing. Yet even those approved by the banking regulator remain opaque by the basest standards of international ABS investing, Rutledge said, adding that knowledge of the routines used by securitization analysts to rate the batches issued in securitizations was sketchy as well.

“People are doing deals and the deals seem to work, but one of the reasons the deals are working is because the high performing collateral is what’s being securitized,” said Rutledge. That leaves open the question of whether China’s ABS investors will be able to tell what they’re getting themselves into when regulations on what can be securitized within the interbank market are eventually loosened once new finding new sources of funding becomes a priority—particularly if performance data remains as scarce as it is now. “You can’t put a fence up and expect it to contain water. Water flows. Money flows,” Rutledge said.

China Economic Review | December 2015

新观察

在经济新常态中寻找机遇中国经济发展向消费驱动型转变，企业获得成长新动力的的三个切入点。尼尔森市场研究

在

世界经济复苏不及预期和国内经济

市，低线城市比如漳州与信阳，人口较

下行压力加大的双重影响下，从中

少，公路与铁路的覆盖率仅为十分之一。

国国家统计局公布的2015年前三季度经济

而相对于一二线城市来说，三四线

数据来看，中国前三季度国内生产总值同

城市拥有更多潜在的经济消费者，并且这

比增长6.9%，自2009年6月以来首次跌破

些消费者在整体经济发展以及财富漏斗的

7%。当中国经济步入新常态，发展引擎处

积累之下成为了不可忽视的消费群体。因

于新旧动能转换的关键时期，如何正确看

此，更好产品服务以及企业文化的可获取

待数据背后反映出的问题？如何正确认识

性是赢得此消费群体的关键所在。

经济运行现状和整体趋势？相关专家、学者及研究机构给出了自己的判断和分析。尼尔森首席经济学家Louise Keely与

保。也正是这个原因，在中国只有1.5%由于自然灾害造成的财产损失得到了理赔。

由于中国庞大的人口，统一的全国性

尼尔森大中华区总裁严旋先生针对近几月

这个现象除了时间的推进能够有所好

标准永远无法满足所有人的需求，因此更

的中国经济新常态进行了分析以及解读。

转以外，如果保险公司能够对中国市场的

多样的，贴近消费者需求的产品更能占据

他们认为，中国经济的运行仍处于合理区

特殊性进行定制化的反应，并且加强对消

市场份额。中国市场上目前有很多紧贴市

间，就业指标、居民消费价格等数据充分

费者有效和针对性的沟通，更高投保率的

场需求的例子可循。

显示出经济运行可控，而企业应从政策中

过程将会加速。

寻找思路，在经济新常态中寻找机遇。

不同地区各消费领域目前都存在许多

这种特殊市场的定制化可以是电子化

未被满足的消费需求，这就是关键之处：

目前，中国政府正在致力于使经济发

网络化的。尼尔森研究数据显示，智能手

在有需求的城市确保合适的品牌及产品可

展向消费驱动型转变。尼尔森需求研究院

机在中国的渗透率相当高，如果保险公司

以被购买到，对于接下来十年内向消费型

预计，未来十年中国消费者消费支出至少

能够对这一特殊性进行定制化的反应，利

经济转变至关重要。

将达到330万亿元，而转型将会驱动再增长

用好电子平台并加强对消费者有效和针对

金融服务中可供中国消费者选择的投

90万亿元，大约是15万亿美元，这相当于

性的沟通将会加速今后中国保险市场翻倍

资、借贷产品仍然比较有限。在城市消费

美国全年的消费支出。

的增长。

者中，信用卡的渗透率虽高达三分之二，

政策的推行极大程度上影响了企业的

其他定制化的切入点可以是旅行保险

但是相比全球还是较低。随着芝麻信用体

转型发生。尼尔森学者同时指出，转型的

以及“护犊文化”、“孝顺文化”下的为

系的推出，以及京东与美国ZestFinance

规模很大程度地依赖于企业是否已经准备

子女购买教育保险以及为父母定制的意外

公司的合资，开始改善中国信用记录缺乏

好，是否有能力提供能够释放消费者需求

险保险等。

造成的信用卡使用率不高。

的产品和服务。因此，未来十年里跨国和本土企业能否促使消费支出增长90万亿元成为现实主要看以下三个领域内是否有所突破。

培养消费文化在中国，消费主导型经济转型的障碍来自于文化观念方面和生活现实两个层

满足多样化需求

当然，借贷仅仅是金融机构促进向

提供良好产品和服务

消费型经济转变的方式之一。老年人口在

尼尔森需求研究院预测，未来十年里

不断增加，如果他们想要靠投资的收入

电子支付渗透率的增长，以及其他相关趋

来生活，就会需要有人来帮助他们管理资

势都将会促进互联网使用率从现在的50%

产。而到2020年，接近2.5亿的60岁以上

左右增长到80%以上，一定程度上正在解

人口将成为另外一部分拥有高资产的消费

决中国的零售渠道及物流基础设施的发展

人群。

问题。

在中国经济向消费驱动型的重大转变

面。比如，根据劳合社（英国保险公司）

但是大多数零售额仍来自实体渠道，

中，政府的政策法规将为其提供最初的原

数据，由于传统观念问题，中国消费者常

某些城市的线下运输系统需大幅改进。例

动力，企业也将会在这过程中扮演重要的

认为保险就像打水漂，因此极少数人会投

如：相比于广州和武汉这两个相对富裕城

角色。

China Economic Review | December 2015

NE W S R OUNDUP

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS IMF to add yuan to SDR reserve currency basket The International Monetary Fund admitted the Chinese yuan to the Special Drawing Rights basket of reserve currencies alongside the dollar, euro, yen and pound, Reuters reported. The yuan will have a 10.92% share, in line with expectations, after a review of the weightings formula for the SDR which also cut the euro’s share by more than six percentage points. The yuan’s inclusion in the basket from October 2016 is a largely symbolic move with few immediate implications for financial markets. But it is the first time an additional currency has been added to the SDR basket, which determines which currencies countries can receive as part of IMF loans.

Mainland stock exchanges tighten restrictions on margin trading The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges raised margin requirements from 50% to 100% in a move meant to prevent systemic risks from building up in China’s financial system, Bloomberg reported, citing a statement from the Shanghai bourse. The rule change limits margin investors to borrowing from brokerages only as much as is in their current account, rather than double that, as was previously the case--and which helped intensify this summer’s equities boom-turned-bust. The Shanghai exchange said in a microblog post that the move would reduce leverage and ensure “healthy development” of the market.

China Economic Review | December 2015

Family planning office demands one-child enforcement until new law passed The National Health and Family Planning Commission lashed out at a provincial office in Hunan for its plans not to harshly penalize those who gave birth to a second child before a new two-child policy is enacted, South China Morning Post reported. The national commission stressed that the new policy cannot be implemented until the National People’s Congress Standing Committee amends the Population and Family Planning Law. Each province will then draft its own implementation plan for local people’s congresses to approve and change their family planning laws, usually done in the first quarter.

Beijing delays financial liberalization in the face of economic woes Beijing is delaying opening of its financial borders as the leadership shifts to emphasize stability in response to economic slowdown, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a wide range of officials, executives and advisers as well as the minutes of a September closed-door meeting of top leaders from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance. But even a new target of 6.5% annual economic growth for the next five years, announced by President Xi Jinping, may prove hard to hit, with analysts saying that it would require steppedup stimulus measures that would run counter to long-discussed reforms that could squeeze near-term growth.

NE W S R OUNDUP

J.P. Morgan hired family, friends of Chinese execs for nine out of 12 IPOs

MSCI adds 14 overseas-listed Chinese firms to emerging market index

Bacteria-hopping gene found in China could enable worldwide antibiotic resistance

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. hired the family and friends of executives at nine out of 12 major Chinese companies it took public from 2004 to 2013, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a document compiled by the bank to submit to US investigators in April as part of a federal bribery investigation. The document lists 222 candidates hired by the bank under a program known internally as “Sons and Daughters,” and names the people who referred them—the most detailed accounting yet of the overlap between the program and the bank’s business in China. listings included Agricultural Bank of China (US$22 billion), China railway group (US$5.9 billion) and CGN Power (US$3.6 billion)

MSCI has added 14 overseas-listed Chinese firms - including Alibaba Group and Baidu - to its influential MSCI Emerging Market index, Reuters reported, citing a statement from the company. Analysts estimate the rebalancing could trigger up to US$70 billion in net flows into the group of stocks over the next half year and bump up China’s weight in the index by three percentage points to 26% in the process. Overseas-listed Chinese firms also comprised the lion’s share of 18 securities added to MSCI’s China Index. MSCI chose to exclude mainland-listed A-shares from its global indices in June, shortly before a dramatic selloff ended a months-long rally in China stocks.

Scientists in China have discovered that a gene enabling resistance to the sole remaining fully functioning class of antibiotics, colistin, is widespread in bacteria carried by both pigs and people in southern China--and can be transferred from one strain of bacteria to another, The Guardian reported, citing the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases. China is one of the world’s largest producers and users of colistin for agricultural and veterinary use, stoking greater resistance. “Although resistance to this important and widely used polymyxin group of antibiotics has previously been shown, it was generally caused by mutation in individual organisms,” said Nigel Brown, president of the Microbiology Society.

Summer equities bailout leaves “national team” holding 6% of stock market

Citic Securities admits to vastly overstating April-Sept equity swaps

Security ministry admits most of world’s synthetic drugs made in China

China’s “national team” of state financial institutions, corralled into purchasing shares to stem this summer’s equities rout, ended up collectively owning at least 6% of the mainland stock market, The Financial Times reported, citing data from Wind Financial. The figures, compiled from quarterly financial statements disclosing listed firms’ ten largest shareholders, likely underestimate the national team’s actual holdings. The government cash infusion came after the Shanghai Composite index fell more than 40% from its seven-year high on June 12 till late August. Goldman Sachs estimated in September that the government had spent RMB1.5 trillion (US$234 billion) to support the market in July and August.

Mainland brokerage Citic Securities admitted to incorrect reporting that resulted in overstating total equity swap transactions between April and September during the height of China’s stock market volatility, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing an emailed statement from the company. The statement came after the Securities Association of China claimed it had in October discovered a “massive error” in regulatory filings on swaps by Citic that overstated the figure for the April-September period as RMB1.063 trillion (US$166.46 billion), or 26 times its actual size of around RMB40 billion. Citic cited computer “system upgrades” as the reason for the incorrect reporting.

China’s Ministry of Public Security acknowledged that most synthetic drugs sold worldwide are made in China, Caixin reported, citing a statement from ministry officials. The US Drug Enforcement Administration said in March it arrested a Chinese citizen named Tian Haijun when he arrived in America. He was accused of shipping tons of synthetic drugs into the United States from China. Zhao Zhongchen, the director of the Drug Control Bureau, said the China Food and Drug Administration imposed new controls covering 116 new psychoactive substances in October. However, he admitted the use of the Internet to handle transactions made law enforcement difficult.

China Economic Review | December 2015

聚焦

中经评论聚焦

国际基金货币组织将人民币纳入特别提款权货币篮子

家队”购入价值大陆股票市场总额6%的股

荐人，该项计划名单与其在华业务多有重

份。据季度财务报表披露的上市公司十大

叠，包括中国农业银行（220亿美元）、

据路透社报道，继美元、欧元、日元和英

股东，很可能低估了“国家队”的实际控

中国中铁股份有限公司（59亿美元）和中

镑之后，国际基金货币组织将人民币纳

股。上证综合指数从今年6月12日到8月下

国广核集团有限公司（36亿美元）。

入特别提款权储备货币篮子。人民币以

旬的七年历史最高点下跌40%，其后政府

10.92%的权重位列其中，符合市场预期。

注资。高盛投资公司预计，在今年9月，政

根据一系列加权公式综述，欧元所占的特

府共花费1.5万亿人民币（合2340亿美元）

别提款权权重被降低6个百分点。人民币的

支撑7月和8月的股市。

加入是一个未对金融市场带来直接影响的

据南华早报报道，湖南某省级办公室计划

摩根大通集团雇佣高管子女以获取IPO

对新法规正式通过之前便生育二胎的家庭

特别提款权货币篮子，也决定了国际基金货币组织借贷的货币币种。

据华尔街日报援引4月交于美国联邦调查

会对此进行猛烈抨击。国家计生委强调开

员的文件报道，摩根大通集团雇佣高管

放二胎的新政策在全国人民代表大会常务

今夏股市暴跌令中国“国家队”持有股票市场6%的市值

家属、子女或朋友，以获取中国12家主

委员会正式修订《人口与计划生育法》之

要企业中9家的IPO。文件中列出了一项

前尚不可实行。之后各地方政府再根据当

据金融时报援引Wind Financial数据，为

包含222位雇佣员工、名为“Sons

地情况制定实施计划，待正式通过后方可

阻止股市暴跌，中国国家金融机构的“国

Daughters”的计划，并列出各员工的推

象征性举动，但这是首次有额外货币加入

计划生育办公室要求在新法规正式通过之前依旧执行独生子女政策

China Economic Review | December 2015

and

放宽惩罚力度，国家卫生和计划生育委员

修改法律条款，通常会在第一季度完成。

聚焦

面对经济困境，北京延缓金融市场自由化据华尔街日报援引多位政府官员、高管、顾问、国家发展与改革委员会和财政部高层会议记录，北京正在推迟开放其金融边界，原因在于领导人更关注经济迟缓发展的解决方案。即便是习近平主席宣布的未来五年经济年均增长达到6.5%的新目标也面临困境，分析师认为加强经济刺激措施与长久以来的政策背道而驰，将会压缩短期增长。

中国发现“超级细菌”基因，拥有超强抗生素耐药性据英国卫报援引《柳叶刀传染病》杂志报道，中国科学家在从人体和猪体内采集的细菌中发现了一种能够对终极抗生素产生强耐药性的新基因。多粘菌素是一种包含药用粘菌素并在畜牧业中广泛使用的抗生素，中国是全世界最大的农用和兽用粘菌素生产国和使用国之一。微生物学会主席 Nigel

Brown表示，尽管超级细菌对粘菌

素的抵抗力已经被证实，然而通常是由生物个体的变异所引起的。

大陆证券交易所加强保证金交易限制

数据出现重大失误。来自中信证券的邮件

份额的18家证券也被纳入MSCI的中国指

据彭博社援引上海期货交易所申明，沪深

声明随中国证券业协会公布的场外证券业

数。同时，MSCI也表示没有将中国内地A

证券交易所将保证金规定额从50%提至

务开展情况报告而来，中信证券的失误造

股市场纳入新兴市场指数的想法。

100%，旨在预防中国金融体系的系统性

成累积虚增互换业务规模1.06万亿人民币

风险。条款的变更限制了保证金投资者的

（合1664.6亿美元），出现问题的原因回

借贷金额最多只能与现有账户持平，而非

应为公司系统升级造成对外报送个别信息

公安部表示全球“第三代毒品 “相当一部分在华生产

之前的规定显示可以借贷双倍金额，从而

错误。

据财新网报道，中国公安部正式回应，全

刺激了今夏股市的跌宕起伏。上海证券交易所在一则微博中声明，这项举措的目的是出于市场的健康发展。

球大部分合成毒品在华生产。美国缉毒管

14家中国在美上市企业入选摩根士丹利新兴市场指数成分股

理局于今年3月逮捕了一位名叫田海军的中国公民，他被指控在中国制造了数万吨违

据路透社援引摩根士丹利声明，包括阿里

禁化学合成毒品原料，然后以粉末形式通

中信证券回应4月到9月间收益互换业务虚增

巴巴和百度在内的14家中国在美上市企业

过快递出口到美国中间商手中。公安部禁

被纳入MSCI全球指数。分析师预估，这

毒局侦查指导处处长赵仲忱表示，中国已

据华尔街日报援引中信证券邮件声明，这

次调整在下半年内将会引发700亿美元的

经开始实施新法规，列管116个品种在中

一大陆证券经纪公司承认在2015年4月至

净现金流入到股市中，令中国所占比重增

国的制造和出口，然而网络交易的存在令

9月中国股市高峰期报送的场外衍生品月报

加至26%。海外上市的中国企业所占最大

执法难度增加。

China Economic Review | December 2015

COVER STORY

Does bigger = better? Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s big data dreams may be in for a rude awakening

China Economic Review | December 2015

COVER STORY

he sales pitch was slick, to be sure: Unmatched situational awareness, even to the point of outbreak prevention. Search queries from across the country would flag the early spread of influenza better even than official government forecasts, helping medical workers more effectively focus their efforts to halt an embryonic epidemic. The company: Google. The project: Google Flu Trends. The prognosis: terminal—discontinued in 2014 after having vastly over-projected outbreaks for eleven months running. But not before Baidu had a chance to come up with its own take on the idea. The signal was clear: Big data had come to China in a big way, and with it the attendant belief that the current era of information inundation will solve all of society’s woes by revealing the hidden trends beneath our noses one data point at a time. Party officials endorse it; tech blogs constantly cover it; businesses can’t get enough of it. But there is also a serious gap in understanding: Businesses are now well-versed in the the futuristic potential of big data, while experienced statisticians are all-too-familiar with its present-day limitations. But how else to attract investor funding? The outcome is a business mindset that demands the unending harvest of everything that might one day prove useful on the assumption that it will be—without stopping to consider the consequences. “Big data doesn’t mean the data is accurate,” said Philip Yu, co-author of multiple books on data analysis and an associate professor at Hong Kong University’s Department of Statistics and

Actuarial Science. But try telling that to Baidu, Alibaba or Tencent.

Analog to digital By and large, the business world understands big data as defined by a widely referenced report published by McKinsey in 2011: “datasets whose size is beyond the ability of typical database software tools to capture, store, manage, and analyze.” As with much discussion of big data, popular doesn’t mean precise, or even useful. Yu preferred to focus on big data’s lack of clear purpose: Where traditionally data might be collected through a survey designed with some objective in mind, big data is hoovered up en masse to be sorted through later. So much more data also means greater potential to confuse correlation with causation—mistaking coincidental patterns for meaningful trends. Photos, Yu said, were an apt metaphor for the big data phenomenon, as the switch from film to digital brought the price of a picture down so low that now dozens are snapped of even trivial events, often preserving the redundant or unimportant. And surely there is no greater store of photos or redundant and unimportant information than the Internet, which is itself continually being mapped and analyzed by the original big data outfits: Search engines. Yet while Baidu’s success in parsing China’s walled-off corner of the net is well-known, Yu bemoaned a ongoing rarity of strong all-around data scientists with the necessary knowledge of math, statistics and computer science required to navigate the field, much less the business acumen to know when to say no in the face of big figures.

China Economic Review | December 2015

COVER STORY

Buy diapers, get credit

Significant digits Perhaps none of China’s internet business behemoths is more apt to trumpet the importance - or revenue-generating potential - of its data than Alibaba and its myriad affiliates and subsidiaries. To herald the launch of a startup incubator in October, founder and chief executive Jack Ma declared that data “will become the biggest production material in the future, it will become a public resource like water, electricity and oil.” Never mind that the spot price for crude oil tumbled that same day to just US$48.25, down more than 44% from a year before due to a price collapse brought on by severe overcapacity engendered by wild optimism about future projected demand. The fact remains that money is flowing to big data on the basis of such prophecies. The China Academy of Information and Communication Technology, a government think-tank, estimated in September that annual spending on big data-related services, software and

China Economic Review | December 2015

hardware would reach RMB11.59 billion (US$1.814 billion) this year. A large chunk of that will come from Alibaba, which in May of this year became the fourth-largest hosting company in the world and the largest in China, according to UK-based Internet research and services company Netcraft. That money has translated to greater processing power in the big data arms race: In November Aliyun, Alibaba’s cloud computing arm, won the prestigious GraySort benchmark competition by using 17 times more servers than the likes of Google and Microsoft to sort 100 terabytes of data in six-and-a-half minutes, 3.6 times faster than said competition. For all that processing power, however, the company has struggled to spin gold from the straw of its e-commerce operations’ user data, even for a muchhyped credit score service meant to give users of its payment platform loans on the cheap.

Multiple sociological studies indicate that a person is more likely to default if their friends and family have defaulted—hence the hype that accompanied Facebook’s purchase of a patent for the use of social networks in credit ratings, and the drive in China use digital personal networks as the basis for an alternative to the kind of credit score most on the mainland currently lack. Alibaba was first out of the gate this year in March when it began offering a credit rating service through subsidiary Sesame Credit Management. Echoing the above-mentioned studies, Sesame’s director of business development, Deng Yiming, told Caixin that users would score higher based on the ratings of the people with whom they had money transfers. Technology director Li Yingyun added that shopping habits and lifestyle also played a role: “Someone who plays video games for 10 hours a day, for example, would be considered an idle person, and someone who frequently buys diapers would be considered as probably a parent, who on balance is more likely to have a sense of responsibility.” Ostensibly this all makes it a little easier for the little guy in China to get a loan. But the problems with this kind of credit calculus are easy to envision. Scholars in the US have pointed out that even if online social networks didn’t often differ from actual relationship networks cited in studies, social credit evaluation could end up perpetuating the socioeconomic status quo by placing poorer communities at a substantial disadvantage. Unless, of course, they game the system. “People are savvy. As soon as they

COVER STORY

realize a certain metric is being used, they can adjust,” said Larry Salibra, software engineer and founder of the south China-based software glitchdetection services firm Pay4Bugs. Indeed, regularly purchasing diapers in bulk as an expectant mother might could well push the score of a young single male above the threshold for nifty benefits offered by Sesame Credit to high-scoring users, like booking a hotel room without a cash deposit. But with Alibaba so quick to monetize its data, the firm is introducing users to the idea of their behavioral statistics being used for profitable ends far more quickly than has been the case in other markets—with the exception, perhaps, of targeted advertising.

Diminishing returns The efficacy of online advertising has drawn greater global attention in recent years as methods of abuse and resulting countermeasures have grown more elaborate. Entire armies of unwilling computers are regularly infected by viruses whose sole purpose is to conscript more CPUs to click on targeted ads, all to meet “click-through” quotas. Salibra noted that while this problem is far from unique to China, so-called botnets are particularly easy to find on the mainland—“anything’s available on Taobao,” he said, half in jest. Hence the appeal of going through Tencent’s social network and online services app WeChat—a captive audience with plenty of ready intel that companies can use to tailor their content for a surgical strike on consumers’ wallets. If only. As explained in a white paper from WeChat consulting services firm WalktheChat, the top options available

to advertisers on Tencent’s showcase service are ineffective, expensive or both. Less expensive adverts delivered through large public-facing accounts amount to “a poorly targeted platform with average prices, low visibility and low conversion rate,” in WalktheChat’s words (meaning few resulting purchases). The other option is shelling out far more for expensive “Moments” ads that show up in large numbers of user feeds, regardless of what or whom they follow on the platform. Attempts to use this option have thus far met with visceral backlash—though perhaps not in the way one might expect. When Coke and BMW became among the first firms to take out Moments ads in January, user reactions ranged from annoyed to outraged. In contrast to privacy minded

Facebookers, WeChat users were most vocally upset over not being targeted for a BMW ad. After all, being served a Coke ad implied users were low-income nobodies by comparison. The only effective option may be paying influential WeChat users - “Key Opinion Leaders” - to run ads in their feeds or even directly plug products, the cost of which WalktheChat estimated could range from RMB5,000-50,000. But even here fake KOL accounts are common, able to masquerade as the real deal by stealing content from other accounts and buying botnets to supply the clicks needed to drive up each post’s view count. The consulting firm pointed to plenty of reason for advertisers to cheat: “If your marketing manager’s bonus is indexed on the number of new followers he or she gets to your account

China Economic Review | December 2015

COVER STORY

with a super-tight budget, there is clear incentive for misbehaving.”

Inputs and outputs In short, said Hong Kong Unversity’s Yu, and despite the size-centric moniker, big data success is not chiefly a matter of quantity. “The quality of the data, how accurate, reliable it is. This is the important thing,” Yu said, adding that HKU had gone so far as to start a program specifically to address the industry’s shortage of well-rounded talent in greater China. Yu-Xi Chau, a freelance statistician and recent PhD graduate in complexity science, pointed to the need for advances in artificial intelligence, “the ability for machines to have insights that humans cannot fully understand.” That has been the chief focus of Baidu’s big data initiative, which in 2014 trumpeted its own success in predicting the winner of every match of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. But football is a far cry from the complexities of epidemiology. Baidu’s Google-inspired influenza forecasting project also speaks to another major drawback of big data: Corporate secrecy that keeps independent third parties from vetting firms’ underlying algorithms. That is by no means the sole domain of China. But for all of its flaws, Google Flu Trends provided historical data that reached back to its launch, allowing scientists to track just how far afield its predictions eventually fell. Baidu’s forecasting service is still online, but only provides users with forecasting records from the last 30 days. Whether that relationship is causal or simply correlation is impossible to say—at least without more data.

China Economic Review | December 2015

In China, big data has its own quirks to work out

hile big data in China shares

both Hong Kong and China, top-tier

many features with the indus-

statistical talent was in short supply,

try’s other iterations abroad, perhaps

and added that even promising grads

no other country has embraced the

faced huge pressure upon entering

concept so readily—at least on paper.

the industry.

In September the State Council is-

“When [investors] talk about big

sued guidelines to boost the develop-

data they don’t really understand the

ment of big data in China, requiring

limitations,” Chau said. Corporate cul-

not only greater sharing of govern-

ture focused on fast results has pro-

ment-collected data on a shared plat-

duced a glut projects in both in China

form, but support for major home-

and elsewhere that may use the data

grown data firms that could become

companies have at hand, but is “not

world-beaters.

doing things that are useful in a stat-

That might be a little over-optimistic, at least for now.

istician’s eye.” Philip Yu, co-author of multiple

Yu-Xi Chau, a freelance statistician

books on data analysis and an asso-

and recent PhD graduate in complex-

ciate professor at Hong Kong Univer-

ity science - covering math, statistics

sity’s Department of Statistics and

and computer science – said that in

Actuarial Science, agreed, noting that

COVER STORY

his university had recently introduced a

That in turn, is driving big data as-

In late November Larry Salibra, soft-

new major - decision analytics - to help

pirations among start ups hoping to

ware engineer and founder of the south

remedy the region’s dearth of data sci-

attract funding from - or even better,

China-based software glitch-detection

entists.

get bought out by - Baidu, Alibaba or

services firm Pay4Bugs, discovered the

There is also the relative youth

Tencent. Chau was openly skeptical of

popular Chinese dating app Tantan was

of data-gathering projects in China:

recent funding valuations, comparing

failing to encrypt private data it trans-

Where big data has been around in the

the current wave of investment in data-

mitted, exposing users to potential

US for around a decade, mainland tech

centric tech firms to the dot-com boom

identity theft, or worse.

firms have had just under half that time

of the 90s in the United States. Thanks

“The interesting thing about that is

to track stats.

to a mismatch between expectations

there was just no interest in [mainland]

“Data is a very typical problem [for

and reality, he said, the business side is

China,” Salibra said. While a couple of

businesses],” Yu said. “They want to

imbuing big data with a level of ability it

Chinese-language publications in Hong

start projects… but they need to collect

doesn’t yet possess.

Kong covered the discovery, mainland

the info for some time first. If not, they can’t do anything.”

“Eventually, when industry knows more, the gap might be overcome.

publications completely ignored it, he said.

That lack of history may be one of

Though it might take years,” Chau

But he added that within social net-

the major motivations behind the latest

said. But Beijing, he notes, wants data-

works, Chinese users seemed to take

round of investment and acquisitions in

enabled breakthroughs in economic

far more advantage of privacy options

China’s IT sector: By snapping up firms

growth now, and “the easy option is to

to shield certain members of their net-

with valuable data, industry giants can

turn to big data.”

works from seeing select activities.

broaden their coverage to new sectors like traffic analysis or food delivery.

Chau said that regardless of wheth-

“Normal people who are married

er it worked or not, big data was “an

and out having lunch with their mis-

easier option to turn to in China be-

tress, they’ll post the picture on We-

cause privacy laws are so lax—they

Chat but on a list that blocks their wife

care less about legal issues.” Indeed,

from viewing it,” he said. That means

at present there is a lack of any legisla-

a major data breach could have disas-

tion defining what personal information

trous consequences for those who are

even means.

ignorant to how easily leaked their per-

“The relevant legislation is all at the

sonal information might be

[local] ministerial level,” said Zhao Yun,

But by far the most remarked-upon

director of the Centre for Chinese Law

feature of China’s big data landscape

at Hong Kong University. While gains

is the penchant among users to ma-

had been made in recent years with

nipulate data whenever it might benefit

various lower-level guidelines, Zhao

them—much as is already the case for

said, there was still no national-level

traditional statistics.

legislation protecting, or even defining, personal data on the mainland.

“One of the biggest problems is whether you can trust the data going

Making progress on that front may

into the system,” Salibra said, pointing

prove more difficult than Zhao would

to credit scoring as an example (see

prefer thanks to apathy from China’s ne-

main story, p22). Yu was more direct,

tizens about data privacy issues—even

citing an old statistician’s mantra: “It’s

when it pertains to their dating lives.

garbage in, garbage out.”

China Economic Review | December 2015

封面故事

大数据营销时代移动互联网的发展和移动智能设备软硬件功能的不断完善，用户行为方式由传统的PC端为主转变为“PC端+移动端”并重，呈现出跨屏互动的趋势，至此大数据的作用也日益明显起来，大数据时代随之到来。文 | 姚瑶

China Economic Review | December 2015

封面故事

个时代搞营销就像是在做一道未知

这

核心部分，打造符合企业、品牌行业及企

口味的超级大蛋糕，而营销手段

业、产品特质的更加深度的数据体系和数

就好比不同口味的配料，随着个人喜好的

据应用。毕竟数据是海量的，如何运营有

不同，配出的味道也将会不一样，但这个

限、有效的高质量数据为企业更好地创造

蛋糕终归是要拿到桌面上去品尝的，所以

价值比大海捞针的粗放式玩儿法更为实

在海量的人群信息中如何具有针对性的让

际。然而数字时代，一个品牌不仅仅在收

潜在客户看见并接受？答案就是大数据的

集数据，同时也在制造和影响数据，如何

运用。

塑造和运营更加有利于企业和品牌营销发展的数据流，必然成为今后品牌营销必须

大数据营销让一切营销行为和消费行为皆数据化

面对的重要课题。因为大数据不是目的，

数据流化使得营销行动目标明确、

数据最大化影响营销投入的ROI才是最终

可追踪、可衡量、可优化，从而造就了

营销投入的关键在于产出，如何合理运用根本所在。

以数据为核心的营销闭环，即消费—数据—营销—效果—消费。大数据营销的价值无外乎表现在两个

大数据营销让社交网络营销等渠道更具价值

方面，一是数字品牌，二是效果营销。而

中传互动营销传播院院长于明认为，

如何优化提升品牌数字资产，这是数字品

通过大数据抓取用户，让社交平台价值倍

牌发展的根本和核心。这里所指的数字资

增，而大数据营销不仅起到了一个连接社

产不仅仅是传统品牌营销所指的知名度、

交平台、精准抓取用户的作用，而且通过

美誉度，更重要的是品牌与消费共创的数

数据整理做营销后提炼大众意见去做产

字生态价值，从而实现数据的商业化，进

品，完成了社交平台营销中的最基础环

行有效的导流和促进销售。

节。这表现在，一个新产品的推广中，完

品牌会把“数据”当成营销运营的

全可以利用大数据来整理用户需求，利

China Economic Review | December 2015

封面故事

网络广告领域的探索颇具先见之明，其依托云端的数据库获取到海量可交互的结构与非结构化数据，并由最底层的数据分析平台支撑中上游的应用服务，打通PC和移动互联网的数据通道，逐步催生垂直的产业链形态。

大数据营销实现线上线下结合后进入多屏时代 “目前的数据挖掘更多还是停留在线上数据的分析和挖掘上。因此未来的关键点就在于如何能够实现线上线下数据的打通。一旦线上的数据和广告主的第一方数据相结合，大数据营销在更精准的基础上就会做到人群量的扩大，”悠易互通产品副总裁蒋楠表示，多屏时代的到来，正在把受众的时间、行为分散到各个屏幕上，而广告主想要更好地抓住消费者的兴趣点，就需要实现多屏的程序化购买。未来大数据营销的大趋势便是多屏整合下的数字营销。目前大部分企业经营决策面临的最大挑战不是缺少数据，而是数据太多，数据碎片化，各自为政。许多公司组织中，数据都散落在互不连通的数据库中，并且相应的数据技术也都存在于不同部门中，面对这些静态、孤立、无多大参考意义的 “初级品”的信息数据，企业信息部门只有将这些孤立错位的数据库打通、互联并且实现技术共享，才能够令大数据价值最大化，提供决策支持。用粉丝力量，设计出新的产品，而众多

传漾创始人及资深技术副总裁王跃表

参与者就是最原始的购买群体，随之打开

示，大数据营销未来趋势将向程序化购买

销售渠道。

方面发展，随着程序化广告发展热潮带来

大数据营销并非“量”的存在，而在于“智慧的数字生态”

的效率提升，企业将会把越来越多预算放

“对于大数据营销的理解，多数人的

大数据营销让广告程序化购买更具合理性

到程序化购买里。而大数据对企业来说，

理解停留在‘很大的数据’这一概念，然

可以更加明确地知道自己的目标用户并精

而大数据实际上是一种‘数据生态’的表

互联网媒体资源在数量以及种类上

准地进行产品定位，从而做出极具针对性

现，即从交易型数据管理拓展到社会化数

的布置，获得用户参与。

据管理层次，从结构化数据管理拓展到非

正在快速增长并且越发多样化，不同广告

主的需求也在日益多样，越发意识到投放

那么如何衡量大数据网络广告价值

结构化数据管理等。在此基础上必须要有

效果、操作智能的重要性。大数据是通过

呢?所谓的大数据营销不仅仅是量上的，更

BI的商业智能分析模型的数据管理能力，

受众分析，帮助广告主找出目标受众，然

多的是数据背后对受众的感知，这体现在

否则无意义而言。”珍岛集团副总裁张蓬

后对广告投放的内容、时间、形式等进行

对大数据的规模、速度、挖掘及预测四个

说道。

预判与调配，并完成广告投放的营销整个

方面。另外王跃表示，对广告来说，产消

大数据营销等同于精准营销，或者

过程。

逆转将导致头脚倒立的新型广告的出现。

说精准营销是大数据营销的一个核心方向

China Economic Review | December 2015

封面故事

和价值体现。然而目前市场上很多大数据营销技能的企业存在很多片面性，首先整

你可能不知道的大数据真相继政府推动各省市成立大数据管理局、大数据交易所等机构之后，在今年10月

个SNS体系的生态数据应该是完整的数据

份，国务院又出台了运用大数据各部委行动时间表，大数据已提升到国家战略层

展现而并非微博、微信数据平台等单一的

面并“强制限期”各地方政府促进大数据的发展运用，大数据企业也如雨后春笋

数据支撑。其次，配套程度有限。大数据

般涌现。发家致富的机会真的来啦！有统计报告显示，仅在2013年，全球花在研发和应用大数据方面的费用就

智能除了像EDM通道外，还需要和终端配合，这点目前市场上做的还很分散。最后，企业在做大数据营销时对个体消费群体真正能够接受大数据给自己带来的便捷同时也因为涉及“个人隐私”这个敏感的

达到了310亿美元，到2018年这一数字则预计将攀升到1140亿美元。大数据这一话题虽然正在被各行各业热议，不过仍然有很多机构和雇主不了解大数据到底是什么，也不明白自己的公司可以依靠大数据能获取到什么信息，更不理解为什么别人要耗费巨资来发展大数据项目，只是可能一味地想跟上发展的脚步去盲目地跟随。

词汇而有所收敛。张蓬认为大数据营销的两个核心方向是To B 和 To C。To B即商业智能化，涉及企业智能化供应链决策体系优化，这个供应链不是常规理解的传统意义的物流，而是囊括企业人力资源、服务采购、销售市场拓展、内控成本分析等诸多层面。To

从字面上看，大数据指的就是“数量庞大的数据”，这些数据还会随着时间的推移而不断增加。虽然现在世界各地关于大数据的讲座和报告层出不穷，不过关于大数据的一些事实依然不为人所知。让我们先来看看能让人觉得大数据行业非常有前途，非常震撼的，让人心潮澎湃的10件事： 1. 在现有的全球数据库中，超过90%的数据是近两年才产生的。 2. 实际上，从数据产生之初到2003年这一漫长的阶段所产生的所有数据总和，竟然只相当于现在2天所产生的数据。而在当今社会，每天都会产生海量数据。

C，即生活服务，涉及餐饮、旅游、医疗

3. 从各行各业捕捉产生的数据量，平均每隔1.2年就会增长一倍。

等诸多领域，以个人信息为核心的信息组

4. 专家预计，到2020年，全球储存的数据总量会由现在的3.2千万亿兆字节爆发

织管理模型，将在未来，重构民生体验。

式增长到40千万亿兆字节，增长超过12倍。 5. 在搜索领域，谷歌每秒钟要处理4万多次搜索查询请求，每天处理超过35亿次

大数据营销是“大规模个性化互动”实现高效转化的基础大数据营销以DMP为核心，包括 CMO辅助决策系统，内容管理系统，用户互动策略系统，效果评估与优化系统，消费者聆听和客户服务系统，在线支付管理

查询请求。 6. 根据最新的数据统计报告，在Facbook上，平均每人点赞180万次，上传20万张照片，还要发送2亿400万封电子邮件以及27.8万条状态。 7. 每 1分钟，YouTube会上传总计时长大约100小时的视频。更有趣的是，人们要花大约15年的时间才能看完他们一天上传的视频。 8. 相比别的数据库，美国最大的通信公司AT&T(美国电话电报公司)的数据库能够在单一数据库里存储最大容量的数据。

系统等几个方面。主要从决策层，分析层

9. 据统计显示，在美国，大数据可以创造600万份新的就业工作。这是因为不断

和执行层几个方面来完成营销，服务和销

增加的庞大数据会创造大量新的工作岗位，每一个需要对大数据进行处理分析

售全流程管理。时趣首席科学家王绪刚认为，在银屏

的技术类岗位会带来三个辅助类岗位的增加。 10. 平均每分钟会产生570个新网站。但美好的现实与未来的畅想往往也伴随着大家都不愿看到的另一面。一下是

时代，营销的核心是品牌形象传递；在互

十个大数据行业面临的发展现实与困境：

联网门户时代，营销的核心是数字化媒介

1. 数据孤岛没有打通，大数据的“大”规模现象没有出现。

购买；而在以移动，社会化代表的互联网

2. 对未来事件的预测性，准确度不一定能超过人们的预期。

3.0时代，营销的核心是实现“大规模的个

3. 沃尔玛啤酒与尿不湿、谷歌大数据预测票房等经典案例的出现概率很低而且不

性化互动”。这里的互动指的是更加广义上的接触点策略，比如更加有针对性的传播内容，更加人性化的客服信息，千人千面的个性化页面，而实现这一核心的基础

能全信。 4. 大数据的投入产出比低，投入过大见效甚微，行业准入门槛高。 5. 企业客户对大数据的投入不够。 6. 真正的应用与市场商业价值没有爆发。 7. 传统的小数据可能比大数据更有效。

就是消费者大数据的管理。大规模代表效

8. 大数据的安全与隐私保护有待提升。

率，个性化代表更好的转化效果。因此，

9. 完整的产业链没有形成。大数据是未来的石油、矿产，是政府与企业未来服务与发展的原动力，这个

所谓大数据营销的价值就在于能够实现更加高效的转化。每个公司所处的阶段不同，关心的问题也不同。未来除了广告平台以外，品

认知早已被马云马化腾等大佬普及成老生常谈的概念了。梦想是要有，但现实也要理性看待，企业才能走的更稳更久远，尤其是准备进入大数据领域的创业型企业。

China Economic Review | December 2015

封面故事

牌主会更加关注其消费者生命周期的数据管理，与平台合作，实现在多个接触点

解，需要一些列建模的过程，然后把它转化成为具体的计算问题。

另外，当今所有的用户数据都来自于

上的个性化沟通。因此，传统意义上广告

林星表示，目前的大数据技术虽然可

cookie或是APP使用行为等等，如用户属

策略将渐渐被基于对用户画像的自动化沟

以让营销动作做得更加精准、有效，但做

性、购买行为等，因其数据本身的局限性

通机制所替代，而CMO也必须借助构建

起来并不容易。即便是公认大数据营销的

再从数据本身的一个维度的扩张来看，今

DMP，SCRM等IT设施来应对这一趋势。

大佬亚马逊、乐天，也经常会被吐槽推荐

天的数据也够不成大数据。因为大数据营

的东西驴唇不对马嘴，或者是已经买过的

销还处在一个概念普及的阶段，所以大数

东西也会一再推荐。因此，未来基于大数

据未来的发展方向是指导整个营销行业趋

据技术的提升，大数据营销的精准性将带

势化或并不指导实际运用的作用和价值，

来更多的商业价值。

而真正指导这个行业运用的还是小数据为

大数据营销即建立一个数据建模让营销更加精准、有效微播易技术经理林星认为，数据的获取方法主要体现在信息系统普及、传感器

主。这也是为什么如今独立的第三方DMP

用通用计算机搭建计算能力超群的系统，

大数据营销就是对“小数据” 分析过程中的数据应用

如SNS社交媒体，利用更加开放的系统，

对于大数据营销，多数人认为在做

在不妨碍平台利益和用户隐私的情况下，

的事情可以称之为“大数据”，在众多乐

大数据可以帮助品牌发现机遇，如新

理论上获取每一个个人的SNS行为轨迹，

观的态度中易观国际分析师董旭却提出了

客户、新市场、新规律、回避风险、潜在

然后存储在服务器上，形成一个庞大的数

对立的观点。她认为，今天所有营销数据

威胁等，同时亦可以有助于品牌营销决策

据库积累后成为大数据营销的一个数据

基本上是各家在利用有限的数据资源，虽

的调整与优化。这其中包含了数据人才、

基础。

网路等等。其次是数据处理方法，像是使

大数据。

生存并不理想的主要原因。

结语

然这个数据资源可能是庞大的，比如庞大

数据模型和应变数据管理的组织职能优化

目前在营销过程中涉及数据方面的

cookie量，附属性的分析量等，但将其放

等，这也是当前企业大数据营销转型中最

多而杂，这时需要对数据的有效性进行过

在互联网、移动互联网环境上只是与营销

大的三个门槛。目前大数据营销的最真切

滤，例如行为噪声，重复数据，非目标用

相关的数据之一。因为现如今产业链的特

的切入点就是去做内工层面，即概念普及

户数据等等。换句话说，大数据时代，数

征，企业都会有自己独立的DMP系统，但

认识数据的重要性，这其中包括：数据的

据和处理能力不再是主要矛盾，主要矛盾

做DMP第三方市场还没有一个通用型的

活性、量级、数据的准确性，以及数据维

是如何从数据中获取想要的知识，也就是

DMP平台可以提供获取数据。因此所有的

度的多元化，最后交给市场一个教育的过

数据建模即挖掘能力。当然这个问题的求

DMP本身是在应用数据，而并非是全网的

程。

China Economic Review | December 2015

封面故事

什么是数据分析做不了的？数据可以弥补我们对直觉的过分自信，可以减轻欲望对知觉的扭曲程度。但有些事情是“大数据” 不擅长的

不

久之前我曾与一位大型银行的首席

人引入歧途。这种欺骗性会随着数据的增

执行官一同用餐。他正在考虑是

多而指数级地增长。在这个庞大的“干草

否要退出意大利市场，因为经济形势不景

垛”里，我们要找的那根针被越埋越深。

气，而且未来很可能出现一场欧元危机。

大数据时代的特征之一就是，“重大”发

这位CEO手下的经济学家描绘出一片惨淡

现的数量被数据扩张带来的噪音所淹没。

的景象，并且计算出经济低迷对公司意味

大数据无法解决大问题

着什么。但是最终，他还是在自己价值观念的指引下做出了决定。

如果你只想分析哪些邮件可以带来最

这家银行在意大利已经有了几十年

多的竞选资金赞助，你可以做一个随机控

的历史。他不希望意大利人觉得他的银行

绪状态，擅长侦测出不合作的行为，擅长

制实验。但假设目标是刺激衰退期的经济

只能同甘不能共苦，也不希望银行的员工

用情绪为事物赋予价值。

形势，你就不可能找到一个平行世界中的

认为他们在时局艰难之际会弃甲而逃。他

计算机数据分析擅长的是测量社会交

社会来当对照组。最佳的经济刺激手段到

决定留在意大利，不管未来有什么危机都

往的“量”而非“质”。网络科学家可以

底是什么？人们对此争论不休，尽管数据

要坚持下去，即便付出短期代价也在所

测量出你在76%的时间里与6名同事的社

像海浪一般涌来，就我所知，这场辩论中

不惜。

交互动情况，但是他们不可能捕捉到你心

尚未有哪位主要“辩手”因为参考了数据分析而改变立场的。

做决策之时他并没有忘记那些数据，

底对于那些一年才见2次的儿时玩伴的感

但最终他采用了另一种不同的思维方式。

情。因此，在社交关系的决策中，不要愚

当然，他是正确的。商业建立在信任之

蠢到放弃头脑中那台充满魔力的机器，而

上。信任是一种披着情感外衣的互惠主

去相信你办工桌上的那台机器。

义。在困境中做出正确决策的人和机构能够赢得自尊和他人的尊敬，这种感情上的东西是非常宝贵的，即便它不能为数据所捕捉和反映。

数据偏爱潮流，忽视杰作当大量个体对某种文化产品迅速产生兴趣时，数据分析可以敏锐地侦测到这

数据不懂背景人类的决策不是离散的事件，而是镶嵌在时间序列和背景之中的。经过数百万

种趋势。但是，一些重要的（也是有收益的）产品在一开始就被数据摈弃了，仅仅因为它们的特异之处不为人所熟知。

这个故事反映出了数据分析的长处

年的演化，人脑已经变得善于处理这样的

和局限。目前这一历史时期最大的创新就

现实。人们擅长讲述交织了多重原因和多

在于，我们的生活现在由收集数据的计算

重背景的故事。数据分析则不懂得如何叙

我最近读到一本有着精彩标题的学术

机调控着。在这个时代，头脑无法理解的

事，也不懂得思维的浮现过程。即便是一

专著—《‘原始数据’只是一种修辞》。

复杂情况，数据可以帮我们解读其中的

部普普通通的小说，数据分析也无法解释

书中的要点之一就是，数据从来都不可能

含义。数据可以弥补我们对直觉的过分

其中的思路。

是“原始”的，数据总是依照某人的倾向

自信，数据可以减轻欲望对知觉的扭曲程度。但有些事情是“大数据”不擅长的。我们有必要了解。

数据不懂社交

数据掩盖了价值观念

和价值观念而被构建出来的。数据分析的

数据会制造出更大的“干草垛” 这一观点是由纳西姆 • 塔勒布（Nas-

结果看似客观公正，但其实价值选择贯穿了从构建到解读的全过程。

sim Taleb，著名商业思想家，著有《黑天

这篇文章并不是要批评大数据不是一

鹅：如何应对不可知的未来》等书作）提

种伟大的工具。只是，和任何一种工具一

出的。随着我们掌握的数据越来越多，可

样，大数据有拿手强项，也有不擅长的领

大脑在数学方面很差劲（不信请迅速

以发现的统计上显著的相关关系也就越来

域。正如耶鲁大学的爱德华 • 图弗特教授

心算一下437的平方根是多少），但是大

越多。这些相关关系中，有很多都是没有

（Edward Tufte）所说：“这个世界的有

脑懂得社会认知。人们擅长反射彼此的情

实际意义的，在真正解决问题时很可能将

趣之处，远胜任何一门学科。”

China Economic Review | December 2015

专访

The Era of Big Data Alex Wong, President of SPACE Asset Management Group, talks about industry development driven by “Internet+”

n recent years, “Internet+” has permeated all walks of life. Internet+Agriculture has given birth to agriculture branding; Internet+Finance promotes the development of financial service platforms; Internet+Medical fosters new medical community modes represented by real-time interaction. It is safe to say that the Internet has overturned many traditional business modes, changed distribution channels for products and transformed consumer behavior fundamentally. As a full service chain business in China’s commercial real estate sector, SPACE is playing a positive role on the industry’s frontier with innovative visions and practices. Depending on acute market insight and enriched creative ideas, SPACE has continually expanded its business in the Big Data Era by artfully integrating the Internet with its own resources. In addition to business, it has extended into various other fields such as culture, technology and education, arming the Group with inexhaustible vitality in the Internet Age. “The Big Date Era has overturned traditional business mode and also brought many new opportunities,” said Alex Wong, President of SPACE. From his perspective, as a result of the impact of the Internet’s development and e-business, the transformation of commercial real estate has become a trend. “In project operation and promotion, it is necessary to possess Internet

China Economic Review | December 2015

Alex Wong/黄绍忠先生

vision, explore optimization and update marketing modes, realizing business appreciation through value marketing,” he added. In recent years, SPACE has been conducting online-offline promotions and operations to promote different projects. In July this year, to prepare for the “Summer Carnival” at Shanghai Touch Mall (Baoshan branch), SPACE made use of the “Intelligent Digital Mall” for a one-week directional themed promotion, delivering messages to millions of WeChat users and acquiring hundreds of thousands of clicks. It then made marketing plans according to the collected big data and successfully met the demand of targeted group. During 2015 CTXD World Music Festival (Wuhan stop), SPACE carried out a series of “WeChat Shake Shakes” activities on the spot, actively interacting with participants and increasing the sales of the mall.

“I greatly stress the company’s advancement in the Internet and Internet business applications,” Alex Wong said. “SPACE has accumulated much practical experience in this field and has developed a diverse array of replicable products which are accessible both online and offline.” SPACE possesses many creative brands including widely-applicable business activity modes and theme pavilions such as popupspace (animation exhibition and sales mode), ecospace (education and sports experience pavilion), o2ospace (animation theme pavilion), elecspace (automatic vending and exchange system of animation products), and spacemirai.com (online-offline electronic platform of animation industry), etc. These self-owned brands and products of diverse forms cover different fields and demonstrate globally advanced business visions, creating unique a character for different projects. “Based on SPACE inherent resources, we launched o2ospace Mall, combing online and offline promotions to help developers create competitive and characteristic business programs. We provide all-round services including planning, investment attraction, designing and operating management to optimize project value increments for developers,” Alex Wong said, adding that SPACE hopes to realize value increment optimization through transforming the big data it collected into effective

专访

data that has guiding significance via integration of online and offline media promotions, application of Internet technology and development of its own electronic platform Spacemirai.com. The key to commercial real estate operations in the future will lie in experience and differentiation. It is necessary to continue to explore the way to create smart business projects that aim at creation and are supported by sci-

ence and technology. “We will cast our eyes to a broader spectrum, not only the animation field, but also the wellbeing industry, which draws increasing attention, and education and sports onlineoffline industrial platform, which own large room for development,” he said. Surely, the real value of the Internet rests in the combination of it with traditional industry, which brings substantial changes to the latter. Mr. Alex

Wong says he keeps a close eye on the development of Internet technology and upcoming effects. He also constantly looks for ways to combine the Internet with other industries to realize more breakthroughs and innovations, and drive the integration and advancement of Internet+culture, innovation, science and technology and business generally. (The article is offered by SPACE)

精彩的大数据时代思彼思总裁黄绍忠先生谈“互联网+”推动产业发展

近

年来，“互联网+”这一思维方式

开幕活动，思彼思通过微象城为其进行了

下的推广，协助开发商打造具有竞争力及

迅速渗入各个行业。

为期一周的定向主题推广。采用微信大号

特色性的商业项目，并提供策划、招商、

互联网+农业催化了农业的品牌化道

投放，有效发布百万用户，产生几十万的

企划、经营管理等全方位的服务，为开发

路，互联网+金融为其服务平台带来了全新

点击阅读量，继而针对所收集的大数据制

商及商业项目实现最大化的价值增值。”

的发展，互联网+医疗生成了以实时互动为

定营销方案，有效触达目标受众。而在武

同时，黄绍忠先生还表示，通过线上线下

代表的新医疗社群模式。可以说，移动互

汉2015新天地世界音乐节上，思彼思配合

媒体推广的结合、移动互联网技术的应

联网颠覆了传统行业的商业模式，改变了

音乐节，于现场开展了系列微信摇一摇活

用，加上如今思彼思spacemirai.com动漫

产品市场销售渠道，也改变了消费者的消

动，在与参与者趣味互动的同时，亦提升

产业电子平台的开发，思彼思希望通过吸

费行为。

了商场的销售额。

纳大数据，并将其转化为有效数据，为开

作为中国商业地产领域的全链条服务

“我非常注重公司在互联网以及移

企业，思彼思也始终以创意与创新的理念

动互联网商业应用上的发展，思彼思在这

发商及商业项目实现最大化的价值增值。未来商业地产运营的关键是体验性

与实践，活跃在中国房地产行业的前沿领

个领域也已经拥有了很多的实战经验，

与差异化，如何有效利用互联网资源，打

域。依托敏锐的市场洞察力与丰富的创意

并开发了众多线上线下结合的可复制性

造以创意为宗旨、以科技为支撑的智慧型

理念，将互联网与集团的资源有机结合，

产品。”据了解，思彼思拥有众多自有

商业项目，是需要去不断钻研与思考的。

在大数据时代背景下，把企业的版图不断

品牌，以可复制性的商业活动、主题馆

“我们将会着眼于更广阔的发展空间，无

扩展，并于商业之外，延伸于文化、科

等，为实体商业带来创新体验，例如pop-

论是动漫领域，还是逐渐被人们所重视的

技、教育等多个领域，引领集团在互联网

upspace（动漫主题展销模式）、eco-

健康产业，或是极具发展空间的教育、体

时代下，焕发出新的生机。

space（教育、体育、运动体验馆）、

育运动等线上线下结合的产业平台。”

“大数据时代的来临，颠覆了传统的

o2ospace（动漫主题馆或主题商业）、

诚然，互联网真正的价值，在于它与

商业模式，也带来了许多机遇。”思彼思总

电子格格（动漫产品自动售货及兑换系

传统产业结合后所带来的影响，对于传统

裁黄绍忠先生认为，商业地产受到互联网发

统）及spacemirai.com（线上线下结合的

产业来说，互联网的引入，使原有的产业

展与电商的冲击，转型成为发展趋势：“在

动漫产业电子平台）等。

实现了本质上的飞跃。黄绍忠先生表示，

项目的运营与推广中，需要时刻融入互联网

这些涉足于不同领域、不同形态的自

未来他将持续关注互联网技术的发展与其

思维，挖掘项目营销模式的优化与升级，以

有品牌及产品，处处彰显出立于国际前沿

所带来的效应，并尝试将互联网与多个产

价值营销带来项目的商业增值。”

的商业理念，为项目营造出差异化特色，

业领域结合，整合企业资源，在原有的基

增添其趣味性与吸引力。

础上不断突破与创新，推动互联网与文

近年来，思彼思持续联合线上线下的推广运营，为众多项目进行宣传造势。今

“在思彼思固有资源的基础上，我们

年7月的上海宝山正大乐城“夏日嘉年华”

推出了o2ospace Mall品牌，结合线上线

化、创意、科技、商业等产业的融合与发展。（思彼思供稿）

China Economic Review | December 2015

CULTURE MAP

Historical perspective on China’s property market

ery often, at some recent social gatherings, friends of mine have approached me and raises Dr. Kenny C.Y. SIU questions about the property market, expecting me to revert with some insider opinion. Instead of throwing back some casual and off-the-cuff comments, I would prefer to spend more time studying the perspectives of history as it impacts on their questions. First of all, I will ask myself a question: Is the China economy in the com-

China Economic Review | December 2015

ing two to three decades on the rise or in decline? It is only worth investing in a country’s property market if the overall economy is on the rise. China and Japan, for example, are two countries with economies going in opposite directions. For China, the economy has seen continuous and steady growth since Deng’s visit to the south in the early 1990s; Japan has been on a deep-rooted downtrend since the bubble burst in the early 1990s and is sadly still lost. Obviously, any time during this period, the return from property investments in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and

Shenzhen must have been lucrative. Needless to say, the investment funds would have vanished if we had made the same move in Japan. It is always easy to walk with the wind but not against. As Jack Ma says: “Pigs will fly high when the wind is strong.” In the long history of China, with its population size and economic potential, occupying 30% of global GDP is normal and reasonable. The figure of 1-2% in the late Qing is abnormal in any sense. The latest figure of 14% for 2014 means there is still huge room for growth.

CULTURE MAP

HONG KONG – it’s role and importance in the future If you have faith in the future of China, you have to select your city to invest in. Like the stock market, the most currently popular names are those like Tencent (00700), Construction Bank (00939), as opposed to HSBC (00005) and SHK property (00016) in the past. The same rule applies to the property market - Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong are on top of the list. Counting back thousands of years in history, it was Chang’an (now Xian), Luoyang, Yangzhou, Nanjing. Time is ruthless; those cities faded as time passed and now rank as secondtier. So goes HSBC and SHK Property in the stock market game. I was born in Hong Kong and therefore have a special emotion tie with the city, though still, I am saddened to have to predict that in longer run, Hong Kong will become a second-tier city. When you scrutinize the Hong Kong stocks and the Chinesebased stock composition in overall transactions, you will understand what I am saying. Starting from the end of 2013, the daily stock transaction of state-owned enterprises accounted for more than 40 percent of HS futures, and the figure is still on the rise. Somehow, the importance of Hong Kong is declining. Yokohama, once the most prosperous city during Japan’s times of seclusion, was replaced by Tokyo and Osaka once the nation was opened up. My personal view is that Shanghai will one day overtake Hong Kong and becoming the center of China’s stock trading – a role as important as New York in United States. Hong Kong will become a Chicago and take a second role.

Decades of Good Time left Given its excellent infrastructure and all other advantages, Hong Kong, though on the way down, can still enjoy some decades of taking the leading role, before stepping into “the best of the second-tiers”. No matter now or back in history, a disparity between the rich and poor is inevitable. Du Fu wrote, “The poor scholars will be cheered when they have their mansions.” The Book of Han says, “The fields owned by the rich cover miles upon miles; the poor don’t have a place to live.” It is an undisputable fact that life in big cities must be expensive and difficult. With basic agreement that the China economy is booming and once you have your cities chosen, it is never an issue

about when to make the real purchase. Changes in price within a 20-30 percent range, for a real long-term capital investment that lasts for almost 20-30 years, mean nothing, especially you are expecting a yield at double, triple or even more. Aim at the watermelon, not its seeds. My humble advice to the younger generation - if conditions allow, you must have your own place to live. You never know what runs faster - your salary growth or the property market. It is a gamble if you do not have your own place for shelter. Dr. Kenny C.Y. SIU PhD. in Economics (Jiangxi Uni. of Fin. and Econ.) MBA, MRICS, MCIH, MHKSI

China Economic Review | December 2015

文化地图

从历史看中国楼市文 | 邵志尧博士

由

于在发展商工作，在很多社交场合中，朋友都会问到关于中港楼价的

问题，笔者希望从历史的角度去思考出一个比较宏观的答案，会较微观地去看问题。首先，我会考虑中国在未来二十至三十年，经济是总体往上行还是往下行。任何一个国家，它的经济往上行，房地产才值得投资，否则，怎样也不值得投资。举最简单的例子，中国和日本是两个恰恰相反的国家，一个从邓小平南巡以后，经济一路往上长，而日本在九十年代初经济泡沫爆破以后，经济一直往下跌，到现在仍在迷失之中。很明显在这段时期，任何时

看出端倪。从2013年底开始，国企期指的

候买入北京、上海、广州和深圳这些一线

成交较恒指期货为多，现在每天成交量多

在一线城市居住之难和贫富悬殊，永

成市，都有可观回报，但是，投入日本，

出四成，估计这个数字只会愈来愈高，即

远都是一个问题，几千年前也出现。诗人

便只有挨打的份儿。顺水行舟怎样也好过

表明香港地位在走下坡。

杜甫的诗写过，“安得广厦千万间，天下

扒逆水，马云的金句，“风大的时候，猪也能飞”。

香港的成功是建基于国内的封闭，我

寒士尽欢颜”；《汉书-食货志》有云：

记得在1997年，每个省市都在香港成立窗

“富者田连阡陌，贫者无立锥之地”。所以

中国在漫长的历史当中，无论从人

口公司，红火的有上海实业（00363）、北

在一线城市生活，一定是昂贵的，房地产一

口比例和经济实力，占全球GDP 30%

京控股（00392）和粤海投资（00270）。

定是普通人难以负担，我们要认清事实。

才是常态，清末民初占一点几才是非常

为什么叫“窗口公司”，因为那时国家的政

在认同中国在上升轨当中和选好城

态。2014年中国占全GDP只有14%，即

策希望用香港这个平台，让国家企业在香港

市之后，无论什么时间买也没有问题，短

未来仍有很大增长空间。

成立公司走出去，并称之为“红筹”，但是

期买平或买贵二、三十百分点，对于长达

当国家有正式门口走出去，还需要爬窗口出

二、三十年的投资根本不成比例，一个是

去吗？

以数倍回报作计算，买贵二三成是微不足

如果仍认为中国在未来的日子也是会好的，我们便要挑选城市。如股票一样，

可以做芝加哥交易所，只能做二线角色。

选的也应该是龙头股，现在的龙头股是腾

那些年我亲身在上海实业工作了12

道，我们要的是西瓜而不是芝麻。

讯（00700）、建设银行（00939），以

年，2009年离任时为投资公司副总经理，

因此，奉劝年轻人在有条件时，都要

前是汇丰银行、新鸿基地产（00016）；

见证了香港人受重视的程度。97年时他们

购入自住的单位，因为你不知道你的工资

城市也是一样，最值得投资仍然是北、

会很尊重港人意见，到了后来，他们只要

走得快还是居住的城市增长快，如没有自

上、广、深和香港，几百或几千年前是长

求我们落实执行工作便是，由以前尊重香

住物业，便是一场赌博。

安（现称西安）、洛阳、扬州、南京，曾

港，到后来变成大上海、小香港的概念，

经风光一时，但面对时代的巨轮，终归会

只是花了短短12年的光阴。

邵志尧博士经济学博士（江西财经大学）

沦为二线城市，如同汇丰、新地一样，在

另外一个例子就是横滨。在日本锁国

股票市场中愈来愈微不足道，历史就是这

的时代，全国最繁荣就是那里，而一旦开

工商管理硕士

样无情。

放以后，东京和大阪迎头赶上，就将其取

英国皇家测量师学会会员

由于我生于香港，虽对香港有情意

代了。笔者估计香港终有一日也会被上海

英国特许房屋经理学会会员

结，但长远来说，香港会沦为二线城市。

超越，成为二流城市，上海始终是全国的

香港证券及投资学会会员

你只要看现时的港股和中资股比较，便会

股票交易中心，如同纽约交易所，香港只

China Economic Review | December 2015

高端医疗

WA臻景医疗开启高端医疗Renew之旅

015年11月28日，上海。WA臻景医疗在其上海中心与医学专家们带大家体验了一场高端医疗Renew之旅。国际知名功能医学专家Ahvie Herskowitz博士和Robin

Willcourt博士，肿瘤专家Joseph Brenner博士以及WA臻景医疗的专家团队为现场的媒体和嘉宾介绍了WA臻景医疗在肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、糖尿病及抗衰老医学等各领域的前沿医疗技术和医疗项目。同时，WA新开的健康体检检测线也第一次向媒体和嘉宾揭开面纱。爱康集团董事长兼CEO张黎刚先生莅临活动现场，并表示“高品质的医疗体验取决于高品质的医疗服务和优秀的专家团队。WA臻景医疗不断努力寻求新的医疗技术和优秀的国际医疗团队，力求给每位来WA臻景医疗的客人提供国际一流的医疗服务体验，真正地为中国的高净值家庭和企业高管提供一站式的高端医疗服务。”张黎刚先生同时提到“健康产业是良心产业，我们不会以牺牲客户的利益来赢得公司的利润，我们全体员工都在为这一目标努力着。Renew是经过一次次的蜕变给客户带来的惊喜，我们的员工在一次次的蜕变中变的更加成熟，我们的医疗服务也在一次次的蜕变中变的更加细致入微。Renew是阶段性的、持续性的。相信WA今后会给大家带来更多的惊喜。” 曾在美国纪念斯隆-凯特琳癌症中心（Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center）接受过进修培训的肿瘤专家Joseph Brenner博士与在场的来宾分享其在癌症治疗方面的心得。“癌症是可以预防的，并不可怕。现在的医疗技术很发达，通过提高免疫力、提升器官功能、控制饮食、配合适当的运动，以及采用正确的排毒疗法，癌症是可以得到很好的预防和控制的，而且阻止其复发。”Joseph Brenner博士指出。美国纪念

Derek Muhs先生

斯隆-凯特琳癌症中心是世界上历史最久也是最大的私立癌症中心，在2014-2015年，《美国新闻与世界报道》在癌症专科领域把美国纪念斯隆-凯特琳癌症中心排名全美第一。约翰.霍普金斯医院（The Johns Hopkins Hospital）前心脏科心脏病理中心主任 Ahvie Herskowitz博士也强调“生活在上海这样高速发展的城市的人们，定期的身体排毒和正确的压力管理是非常必要的，只有这样才可以提高自身的免疫力。”约翰.霍普金斯医院是《美国新闻与世界报道》评定的最好的医院之一。 WA臻景医疗联合创始人Derek Muhs先生表示“在过去的几年中，WA致力于把抗衰老医学和预防医学领域最新的技术和应用带到中国。中国的环境问题和生活方式的转变导致了对于高品质健康管理解决方案的巨大需求。WA一直提倡‘医疗无国界’，将持续提供更好的医疗服务，引进更多的国外医生团队，精心呵护每一位客户，打造更美，更健康，更长寿的生活方式”。 WA臻景医疗表示，Renew仅仅是个开始，以后有无数次Renew带给客户更多惊喜。

关于WA臻景医疗 WA臻景医疗源于1990年，是世界领先的新医学抗衰老国际医疗中心，目前在上海和北京运营着两家国际医疗中心。自成立开始，WA臻景医疗一直致力于将世界抗衰老医学、功能医学和再生医学领域中的一流医疗专家和研究人员引进到中国大陆。2012年，中国产学研合作促进会将WA臻景医疗中心命名为“中国抗衰老功能再生医学临床研究基地”。2015年，WA臻景医疗与爱康集团建立全面的战略合作，从而为客户提供从深度体检、功能医学、抗衰老到高端医疗服务的完整医疗服务体系。

张黎刚先生

China Economic Review | December 2015

FEATURE STORY

Morton’s of Chicago, The Steakhouse and Morton’s Steak and Seafood Grille Shanghai’s go-to spots for the ultimate night out

s the holiday season is ushered in this year with a gust of cold wind, a warm evening with a cocktail in hand and hearty meal set down in front of you sounds more appealing than ever. In Shanghai, Morton’s The Steakhouse is the place to go for just that…and more. A longtime treasure trove for people searching for the best in fine dining to relax and unwind after a long day, Morton’s offers customers a truly enviable selection of prime cuts of steak, seafood and a wine list of over 250 international wine labels. With a rich and pleasant environment that offers the quintessential American steakhouse experience, it should come as no surprise that Morton’s is nicely suited for year-end company parties, business dinners, family get-togethers and the classic after-work cocktail this holiday season. And what holiday season is complete without a few perks? Morton’s is now giving patrons a unique opportunity for fine dining – on the house. “We are delighted to offer a Morton’s Holiday Gift Card promotion, just in time for the winter season,” says Morton’s The Steakhouse General Manager Frederic Fuseau. “It’s our way of saying thank you to our loyal customers, and to get everyone in the holiday spirit with the Morton’s dining experience we have all come to cherish.” From November 1, 2015 to January 31, 2016, customers who purchase a RMB2500 Morton’s Holiday Gift Card will receive a

China Economic Review | December 2015

Morton’s Steak and Seafood Grille located at the iapm Mall

Morton’s of Chicago, The Steakhouse located at the ifc Mall

FEATURE STORY

RMB500 complimentary bonus gift card, redeemable between February 1 and April 30, 2016 (excluding February 14, 2016). The Morton’s Gift Card remains valid for 1 year after the purchase date, giving customers the perfect reason to come back to Morton’s time and time again to indulge in some of the best cuisine at Shanghai’s favorite steakhouse. Morton’s will also customize event menus upon request, at no minimum charge. Diners have the luxury of choosing between two award-winning Morton’s restaurants situated in prime city locations. The Morton’s Steakhouse in the ifc Mall in Lujiazui, the heart of financial district, is the largest Morton’s in the world and boasts a spectacular view of the iconic Oriental Pearl.

With nine private rooms, and private areas for cigar and wine aficionados, fully equipped with audio-visual, this location is best suited for those bigger company gatherings. Morton’s Steak and Seafood Grille in iapm Mall in the center of Shanghai is the only Morton’s of its kind in the world to offer such a wide range of fresh seafood selections. From Ahi Tuna Tower, to Jumbo Lump Crab Cake, to imported Fresh Oysters, Morton’s offers mouth-watering fare for every palate. And let’s not forget about what Morton’s does best – steak. Dine on Center-Cut Ribeye, a Signature Cut New York Strip, or Morton’s Porterhouse in luxury surrounded by your closest colleagues or family members. Morton’s award-

winning wine selections and extensive list of top-shelf cocktails will pair perfectly with whatever delectable course you choose. “Using the finest ingredients and cuts of meat, our experienced chefs will make your experience at Morton’s unforgettable,” says Diego Zhang, General Manager and Wine Sommelier of Morton’s Steak and Seafood Grille. “And with this new Holiday Gift Card promotion, you will be able to treat yourself and someone special to a truly elegant night on the town.” With a generous plate of food and a full glass, dining at Morton’s will create treasured memories for years to come. As the holidays come around, Morton’s will continue to be the crown jewel of fine dining.

China Economic Review | December 2015

ECONOMY

Dragons in diamond village Q&A: David Bandurski on China’s urban villages and the outlook for urbanization

avid Bandurski is best known for his work at the University of Hong Kong’s China Media Project, where he breaks down developing trends in both state and commercial publications. That makes his new book following the struggles of a village attempting to fend off the encroaching city of Guangzhou a departure from his typical wheelhouse—abeit a welcome one. China Economic Review recently spoke to Bandurski about the decadelong story behind his book, the uniquely Chinese phenomenon of urban villages and the difficulties faced by all sides in China’s ongoing drive toward urbanization.

China Economic Review | December 2015

I’ve seen plenty of books that concern China’s urbanization, but few have gone into much detail about urban villages other than to address them at an abstract level in terms of hukou (registered residence) status and land rights categories. What prompted you to take on the topic at book length? You’re absolutely right, if you look for info on urban villages in china you’ll be taken to not actually practicing urban planners, but urban planners in an academic setting, looking at the issue of planning urban spaces in an abstract way; you’ll find architects

writing about urban villages, and this sort of thing. But I was very interested when I discovered them for myself back in early 2005. I was here in Hong Kong and saw images of them [while] watching a documentary on them and started reading about them. The term was new to me, ‘chengzhongcun’ (城中村), literally ‘villages within the city’. The more I read, the more I thought, wow, this is really fascinating these are pockets of rural china in the middle of China’s biggest booming cities. And they’re real rural spaces, so they’re very unique, and as you said I hadn’t really seen a lot of writing about them and the

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social issues that sort of congregate in these spaces. So that’s really what prompted it. I thought I had found—and I still think this—sort of the secret ingredient of China’s urbanization. And what I mean by that is: We know when we talk about urbanization we’re referring to people—human beings—moving from rural lives in rural settings to urban lives in urban environments. That’s what urbanization means. But of course in China we’re always hearing about the floating population, the migrant workers in China’s cities. We know that by 2050 over a quarter of a billion people will enter China’s cities, but will they become urban residents? Will they have hukou? We’ve heard some of the institutional and economic aspects of this story of urbanization and we have to ask, ‘is this a real urbanization? Are these people becoming real urban residents?’ And the answer, in a way, is no. This is why we call them floating, it’s a term in Chinese (流动人口). They’re floating because they never arrive in the city, and by that I mean the city that’s built for them, [those] that the leaders build as prestige cities. When we think of Shanghai and Pudong, and we think of Guangzhou and the central business district, these urban spaces are not built for the vast majority of people who are really the whole phenomenon of urbanization in China. Where do they live? The first answer is factory dorms. But that’s just a small portion of where migrants live, because think about it: You’re a migrant worker in your late 20s, and you’re in a segregated dorm? How are you going to get married, how are you going to have children, how are you going to have a sustainable life in

the city? You need a space, you need a room within the city that is your own, outside of the factory. And that is the urban village. And they’re everywhere. They’re not just in Shenzhen or Guangzhou. The Pearl River Delta has a great number of them because of the migrant waves, but [the urban village] is really the answer to the question, ‘Where are they?’ And it’s one that, as you’ve said, no one’s really looked at in-depth. So that’s what really fascinated me about the space of the urban villages, and that’s why I chose them as places to report stories, rather than the topic—because I’m not really focused on the topic of urbanization per se, as much as stories about land, etc. happening in the urban villages.

How did you end up settling on Xian Village as your narrative focal point? It was a long process because in the past I’ve done very topical books, like Investigative Journalism in China, where you think of maybe eight or ten chapters and you divide them up into stories and issues. So I had a lot of stories I was working on including about migrants, and some of them are not in the book. Most of the ones focused on migrant workers in the villages did not become the focus although I have those stories. It was quite late in the process, around 2011, ‘12 when I went back— and Xian Village had always been one of my favorite urban villages to go and eat in, and walk around and explore, and I discovered to my surprise and dismay that the village had been surrounded by this huge containing wall. It looked to me like this place was going to be demolished in six months, so my thought was: Let’s write a history of a

disappearing village in the middle of this city. You know, what an opportunity to go back and talk to the old villagers about the history and the transformation and the disappearance of this place. No one wanted to talk about history. Everyone wanted to talk about corruption, land politics, and to the extent that I could see history and culture it was playing into the rights defense movement, it was playing into the politics of resistance. So the title of the book, “Dragons in Diamond Village”, is a reference to the use of the dragon boat parade, an ancient ritual in this area, to gather resistance against the corrupt village leaders. So the question of whether the boats will return to the village—because they weren’t allowed to race—is the question of where the story is going in terms of land and corruption, heritage, everything. So in that sense I have to say, I defend my use of “dragons” in the title. Mine is one of a very few over the last decade that deserved dragons in the title. It’s a very local reference, it’s not a colonialist appropriation of Chinese symbology or something like that. The symbolism is not mine, it’s the villagers’.

You mentioned how everything sort of came back to the corruption, the land politics... to what extent does urban development and redevelopment still rely on official corruption? Your description of the concentration of power in the hands of one village overlord in particular struck me as more than a little similar to the kind you see on a national scale. It’s Identical. As I was investigating Xian village’s corruption issues—

China Economic Review | December 2015

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level as well. Xi Jinping has talked about tigers and flies, and I think the issue of the flies, of smaller corruption, is much more key to political stability and the success of anti-corruption, etc., because the corrpution of these low-level officials—village and county officials— affect Chinese on a much more direct level than say, Zhou Yongkang or Bo Xilai, these kinds of cases. And in my experiences reporting this book and going back now, very little is being done. Villagers are facing the same situation now that they were three years ago, four years ago when I was in the thick of it. There’s still no accountability for village officials, and they have basically a blank check to do these land deals—and they’re working with district officials and city officials.

From your descriptions of Guangzhou’s urban villages they sounded a little taller, if not denser, than the ones I’d seen walking around inside Beijing’s Third Ring Road. I know your book is centered on the Pearl River Delta, but I was wondering if you’d noticed regional differences in how urban villages form. and this involves Poly Group of course, which had a princeling running it—I had a sense that China is a village. There’s a small group of officials, princelings, call them what you will, hongerdai, second-generation reds, fuerdai, the sons and daughters of the rich, and they’re a very small number of people. In the same sense that a village has two or three thousand members, so does the extreme elite that actually controls most of the wealth, much of it invested in land, across China.

China Economic Review | December 2015

So it’s no accident that many of the stories in my book... probably all of them indirectly or actually quite directly, interests that are national. So you have Poly Group which was up to 2010 run by the son-in-law of Deng Xiaoping, so that’s about as senior as they get, they’re very involved in a lot of projects in Guangzhou, and they’re the ones who’ll redevelop the village. And it’s still in the air, what’s going to happen... And certainly I was really interested in looking at corruption at the local

Absolutely. I was also in Zhengzhou, and Changsha was another—in Changsha I found the urban villages quite similar [to those of Guangzhou], and of course we’re in the South still. A lot of it has to do with the economies in various areas. Of course the Pearl River Delta was developing earlier: It’s relying very much on manufacturing, even having a lot of small sweat shop operations that are on village land. So these villages are not just residential. They have collective properties - so they might have shoe

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factories, or parts factories, that kind of thing - where they’re attracting laborers who are living in the tenement housing, but they’re also working nearby. What you see in Beijing, you’re absolutely right, you tend to have a lot of Henan migrants who are doing, for example, recycling. So these spaces, the zhaijidi 宅基地 or residential areas are also used as warehousing areas. I spent a lot of time in a village called Trash Village, Lajicun 垃圾村, up in an area called Dongxiaokou 东小口. And these were all Henan migrants, they were living there in little hovels, but they were one-story, and they were using land next-door, renting it out to store wiring (they’d strip the copper out) or plastics, and they would basically run recycling enterprises. They can still be quite dense, so you can still have twenty, thirty thousand migrants living in a small village, but they’re not as built-up as the villages in the South.

But you see this dynamic absolutely everywhere. I think it doesn’t really matter where you are: On the outskirts of the city, sometimes closer in to the main development area, you’ll see these rural spaces that are being used to support a grey economy, and it’s a matter of what kind of economic activity you’re looking at... Sometimes you have to be creative and know where to look for them. They’re actually hiding, often behind new, prestige architecture and that sort of thing.

So what determines the resilience or vulnerability of an urban village? Why do some hold out longer than others? In the case of Guangzhou, for example, some of the major factors are the villagers themselves and how united they are—so if they have a strong sense of community, if the leadership is more collective. In some cases they don’t real-

ly have the emergence of a dictator, if you will; in the case of Xian village it has a sort of local tyrant, and you see this in a lot of villages where they have immense power and develop these connections with other local leaders. But if villagers stick together they have a better opportunity to resist the regeneration plans of the city or to make their own demands about how the process is done. And you have villages like Shipai 石牌, very close to Xian village in Guangzhou, which is untouched and will probably remain untouched for the foreseeable future because it’s in a major urban area and if they try to move on the village it will get nasty. And this is the thing, Chinese leaders very risk averse and so the villagers, if they’re doing rights defense they know this—well every rights defender knows this, right? It’s a tactic: you make lots of noise, you attract a lot of atten-

China Economic Review | December 2015

ECONOMY

tion, and [leaders] tend to be more cautious in dealing with you, and they might negotiate with you. You see this again and again in my book, this tactic of rights defense. So that really decides it, and in some areas the governments may be more aggressive in dealing with land seizure, because again they’re not under so much scrutiny as you would be in a major city. It’s a real problem [for leaders] in a city like Guangzhou, or Beijing, you have a concentration of media as well in these areas. So it’s mostly about scrutiny and the local community and how united they are.

A little over a year ago CER looked into the State Council’s announcement that it was going to abolish the rural-urban distinction for hukou. Has that had much effect at all for the people you’ve been talking to? I think the problem is a really difficult issue, and I think with China having dealt with the one-child policy now, down the road I think the hukou system is going to be something they’ll have to deal with. But in many ways we’re past the point where changing hukou status will mean a areal substantive change for people’s lives because they need to have programs to actually provide the infrastructure, for example, for social programs, whether it’s healthcare, or education—and a lot of things are being provided in the cities informally, and again, in urban villages. When I was in Beijing I was reporting on migrant schools, and migrant schools—illegal schools run by migrants, for migrants—are concen-

China Economic Review | December 2015

trated in the urban villages. So if you go to Dongxiaokou where I was, that’s where you’ll find them. So you have to provide the services for the people that are in the cities, and the cities don’t want to do this on their own. They’re waiting for someone else to jump first. It’s a real problem. Because you look at an area like [the one] outside Shenzhen, and you have hundreds of thousands of workers, many of them living in villages, not factory dorms. And if you consider their interests - if they were voters, for example - they would want to have their children there, and they would say: ‘We need more schools, we need more classrooms, we need more teachers.’

But [migrants] are not calculated in the local mathematics for social benefits. The schools that are built locally are for local residents with hukou. So really you can talk about changing an ID card, but really the big question is about social benefits.... Li Keqiang, the premier - although he’s saying it less now, I think it’s too difficult an issue - but he’s talked about ‘human urbanization’. This is the new term, and this is an acknowledgement that urbanization over the last two decades has focused on urban development, building physical cities, and it’s ignored, more or less, the human beings that are really what urbanization is all about.

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tion between these two worlds in the cities. So the local villagers see themselves as one caste in a way; and then the migrant workers are just kind of coming through and they’re not really local and they’re not really accepted; and then you have the urban residents with hukou. So there’s going to be a lot of resistance when they start to talk about specific changes, and maybe a lot of resentment too against the migrant population.

That seems to track with what we’d concluded in the piece, though it’s not exactly the kind of confirmation you’re overjoyed to get.

And this has to change. You have to have urban environments that take into account the urban population. So we know they’re thinking about this and they recognize that there’s a real schism, but solving it is going to be really difficult. I’m not the policy guy on hukou, and I wouldn’t want to be. It’s a nightmare. Another issue is going to be local identity. In my book I’m focusing on the local-rural—I’m focusing on the villagers whose homes are in Guangzhou, whose villages have been there for a thousand years, who see themselves as the real locals; and I don’t really look at the migrants so much. But there’s always a little bit of fric-

Then another issue is going to be housing—and I’m kind of posing another question for you here because I saw recently you guys had written about the residential property glut, and the figures for residential housing, which is a really interesting issue. But I’ve always been fascinated by the fact that there’s essentially two markets in China, and the urban village is a separate grey real estate market, and the one that has been fulfilling this demand represented by migrant workers in the city. What we call the housing market in China in most cases is not even a real hosuing market. It is so far over the heads of the new urbanites, the migrant workers that it’s hopeless! And so you think: How are they going to deal with this? Is the formal real estate market going to correct to take into account the grey market, in which case we’d see a dramatic drop in prices; or are they going to try to get through this period with subsidized low-income housing? Right now there’s talk about low-

income housing, but think about Shenzhen! It’s hard to get hard statistics, but if you have a city with say 12 milllion people, and you have 2 million who have urban hukou and probably own real estate, and then you have another 10 million who are various kinds of migrants, some may have college degrees, some may not, etc.—but you could be talking four or five million people who are living (and this is probably conservative) in an urban village environment. They’re living in gray housing economy. If you were to build low-income housing for those five million people, can you imagine how much that would cost? And how much room it would take? I mean Hong Kong is talking about building some more of this housing over the next ten years, and it’s a total headache. It’s nothing close to [Shenzhen]... So I think about this problem and, as I say in the intro: Are you going to build a new Singapore to house this population? So how to house urban China is a real problem, but we kind of ignore it in the economics. They get very simplistic. You’ll hear a banker say, ‘Well China’s got 250 million new people going to the cities in the next half-century, there’s unlimited demand into the future for housing.’ And the basic math sounds right, but the problem is that the real estate prices already are so high that in many cases a migrant worker is talking about 200 years of gross income to even afford an apartment of any size on the outskirts of the city. So I think this is a big issue for the long term for the cities, and this is why they’re pushing reverse migration, they’re hoping they can get cities in inland China

China Economic Review | December 2015

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to develop, and the maybe some of the migrant populations will move back into these areas. So that’s been another sort of push.

Having looked into that a bit, it didn’t seem to me as if the ‘if you build it they will come’ model was actually drawing a lot of people away from the coast. No, and that was my experience going to Henan. The people would say ‘Ok, but the jobs are in Beijing, the opportunities are in Beijing.’ You saw it everywhere in Henan. They’re building little county towns and things like that, and there are slogans like ‘Returning to your home and rebuilding your hometown is glorious,’ that kind of thing. You’d see it on an empty street, a brand-new, beautiful empty street with these banners slung over the street. And I’m not sure. I’d have to do a lot more studying to see what the trends are. People talk about ghost cities, and those are kind of a different phenomenon. Some of the ghost cities are waiting for people to come, yes it’s true, but it may in some ways be overblown, but the low occupancy in China’s major cities is a major issue, I think. The way housing is predominantly investment and not really for living, those are issues. We’re getting into a lot of topical stuff, and my book isn’t so topically focused. So anyone looking for the answers to all these questions wouldn’t read my book so much. But I think urban villages, in a way they symbolize this whole set of issues: The hukou system, the housing market, rural-vs-urban, the rights of rural people, the emergence of the citizen— because you have rights defense actions

China Economic Review | December 2015

where they’re calling for rule of law, and they’re calling for more transparency and more involvement. So that’s what interested me about them, is really that urban villages if you look at them you can see so many of the problems that face not just China’s urbanization but its longer term development. And very few people have ever even heard of them. So they’re really kind of cool places I think.

Speaking of property mismatch and the real estate market, one of the things I’ve seen mooted as a potential short- to mid-term source of relief for China’s real estate industry is urban redevelopment. So I do wonder whether we’ll see an intensified campaign to clear out urban villages as they become more attractive candidates for that. We already have in Guangzhou, obviously. There’s 138 in the main city and a lot more outside, and for years, ever since I’ve been looking at this, ten years they’ve been talking about plans to redevelop all of these. And they designated ten or so of these ahead of

the Asian Games of 2010, and it’s not happened. And one of the important reasons is the local history, heritage, culture and the sense of political entitlement. These villagers want to protect their rights. These are their homes, it’s their livelihood, it’s their future, and they want a say in that future. So you can talk about redeveloping them, and you think it’s maybe just an architectural issue or a city planning issue. But it’s a much bigger issue than that. And they’ve already found this in Guangzhou, and it’s proven almost impossible to redevelop these villages without trouble. And again, they run into the problem that they’re not interested in redeveloping it for a kind of intelligent, holistic urban planning, a human urbanization. They’re only interested in the real estate bank, they’re only interested in the money that the city gets and that the developers get. Because as soon as it’s redeveloped it becomes high-end real estate that only usually hukou-bearing investors, many of them also probably government officials, but the wealth, the super wealthy can afford to buy. And then in the case of Guangzhou you’ll have anywhere from thirty to fifty, sixty-thousand migrant workers that’ll move out to another village on the outskirts. So they’ve resolved none of the fundamental issues, all they’ve done is basically create a lucrative new building site to fuel this investment bubble. So they do get ‘civilized cities’ if you see ‘civilized cities’ as sort of not being about people, but as being about clean streets and shopping malls and whatnot. But they’re not really dealing with the fundamental issues; they’re basically kicking the can down the road.

China Economic Review | December 2015

ECONOMY

Seeing past the smog Q&A: Jost Wübbeke on the economic challenges to China’s hazy climate change goals

ith China ranking as the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide - and in a position to potentially exhaust well over a third of the world’s carbon budget to mid-century by 2035 - its role in the Paris negotiations could prove crucial to mitigating catastrophic climate change. Hence the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) has released a new qualitative study scrutinizing China’s existing emissions pledges, as well as the implications of the country’s economic slowdown for its ability to keep them. China Economic Review spoke to co-author Jost Wübbeke about the institute’s findings

China Economic Review | December 2015

and his thoughts on the outlook for the Paris summit.

Part of your report is dedicated to laying out China’s carbon emissions targets, which turn out to be pretty vague because they’re based on the carbon intensity of economic growth. What’s the basic range there, and how does that compare to popular perceptions? As you rightly said, these targets are quite ambiguous, they allow for ample space for future emissions because the carbon intensity is linked to economic growth. The more your economy is

growing, the more you will be allowed to emit, and you have a huge range for interpreting these targets. It’s not a fixed target like absolute CO2 emissions: With an average annual growth of around 5%, China can emit much more CO2. It would probably reach 11 billion tons by 2030. If economic growth is only 3%, China would emit much less, probably only 8 billion tons by 2030. This target is unclear about what will actually happen in the future, it cannot guarantee that China will really control its CO2 emissions. If you take the International Energy Agency’s 450 ppm scenario as a reference, you can say China

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would have to grow only around 4% for these targets to make a real contribution to climate change mitigation. However, it is an open question whether China can really meet its intended targets. In our report, we argue that if the country faces increasing economic difficulties, these targets are likely to be watered down. I believe Beijing is very honest about reaching its targets at the moment, but one should be realistic and keep in mind that if China is really facing economic pressure and jobs are at stake, possibly leading to labor protests—under those circumstances policymakers would probably put the economy first and the environment second.

There’s been a lot of hubbub over China’s carbon emissions records this year. Can you sum up the key points for those who might not be up to date? As you know, China is the largest CO2 emitter in terms of absolute emissions. However, it is a tricky task to derive its real emissions, as with any other country. China’s CO2 emissions are indirectly calculated from primary energy consumption. It is always possible that the formula or data being used is not accurate. That was actually the case when China had to revise its coal consumption data earlier this year. It came out that it consumed much more coal between 2000 and 2013 than was previously believed. We have to factor that into the calculations of CO2 emissions, which are now much higher due to the revised coal consumption data. But this does not ultimately change the general trend that China is consuming less coal.

And not even relatively speaking? Even in absolute terms, 2014 was the first time since 2001 that China’s coal consumption did not increase year-onyear. This doesn’t change even if the data has now been revised. At the same time, other studies found that the carbon content of Chinese coal is lower than assumed in current CO2 calculations, suggesting that China has been emitting less CO2 than indicated by official data. In sum, we have a lot of uncertainty about what China’s real emissions are.

But it is still safe to say that China is the world’s largest CO2 emitter. Yes, sure, but only in terms of absolute emissions. In per capita terms, China is emitting much less CO2. Compared to more than 18 tons per capita in the U.S. and around 10 tons in Germany, the average Chinese person generates only about 7 tons. However, the average per capita emission of CO2 is increasing in China.

What are the two “extreme” scenarios you discuss in the new report, and why do you ultimately conclude they’re unlikely?

The first scenario describes a backslide of China’s climate policy, where China returns to its previous path of relying on heavy industry, including the steel and cement industries, as well as investment in infrastructure and construction. In the case of a major economic slowdown we can expect that emissions will initially decelerate, but what’s important is what happens next. It is quite likely that China will use investment in infrastructure and construction to create economic growth. These measures would result in greater demand for steel, cement, and other raw materials and increase CO2 emissions significantly. At the same time, this scenario is rather unlikely because it has become rather difficult to create growth from infrastructure investment and construction. In addition, the ability of energy-intensive industries to generate new jobs in China is decreasing. On top of that China now has stronger environmental institutions, which can act as a stronghold against a serious backslide. The other extreme scenario would be the very optimistic one of accelerated transition. Under this scenario, China would use the economic slowdown to boost its economic transition towards high-tech and service sectors, and establish environmental industries as a key pillar of the economy. This would help to reduce CO2 emissions tremendously. However, this scenario is also an extreme case, because it’s rather risky for the Chinese government to vigorously push economic transition under these circumstances; it does not really know if these new industries like e-commerce or environmental technology will really create enough growth and jobs. Under such uncertainty,

China Economic Review | December 2015

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I’d say the Chinese government would rather not pin all of its hopes on these industries. We should not expect to see a stimulus mainly relying on lowcarbon measures.

You also outline a third scenario, labelled “delay”. What does that look like, and why do you consider it more likely? It’s a combination of the other two. In times of economic slowdown, it is quite probable that China will initially use traditional measures of facilitating growth—that is already visible in individual stimulus measures calling for more railway and housing construction. This will of course produce more demand for raw materials and also lead to an increase in CO2 emissions. This could go on for some months or even years, but the Chinese government will see that these measures are running out of steam and are not as effective as before. The political leadership will gradually orient the country more towards high tech and environmental technologies, promoting economic transition. However, this process is being delayed by the economic

China Economic Review | December 2015

crisis and the many ad-hoc stimulus measures—the transition is coming later than expected. As a consequence, a sustained fall in China’s CO2 emissions will occur much later than we had previously hoped. Until now, one could be quite optimistic about China’s climate policy. Its economic policy and climate policy have been quite compatible with each other. But this could now fundamentally change if economic conditions worsen.

What determines the differences in your three scenarios? Our basic assumption is that policy decisions fundamentally influence the direction of these scenarios. There are three major factors: First, the question is, how green is the government stimulus? In the 2008 stimulus package during the global financial crisis, around 70% of funds went into railway, highway and other construction projects. This was a rather “dirty” stimulus, though it included some energy efficiency measures. The second factor is job creation. You can see that there are still a lot of

jobs in heavy industries like steel and coal, manufacturing, and construction. It’s quite hard to transfer these jobs to high-tech or environmental-tech industries. This will be a challenge, and there will be a lot of uncertainty about whether the government can really transfer these jobs from one sector to another, especially in the short term. The third factor is the role of environmental policies and institutions. The question is whether the environmental regulatory framework can in practice really prevent a backslide to a more heavily polluting economy and the relaxation of key environmental targets in the face of economic difficulties.

From your perspective, what are the most likely best- and worstcase scenarios for negotiations in Paris? Paris is more about diplomacy than really solving the challenges of climate change. Everybody in this game, like China, Europe and the US, wants to avoid losing face and to ultimately have something to show for it. But with what we’ve seen so far I’m not very optimistic, because China’s goal aren’t so ambitious, and the US’s goals are not that impressive, either. There is another question of whether this protocol and the emissions targets will be legally binding. If not, it will be very hard to ensure climate change mitigation. Right now, the world is in a critical situation. The impact of climate change is already visible, and 2015 will be the hottest year on record. If you really want to mitigate climate change, you’ll have to do more right now, not in ten years. But postponing climate efforts is what most countries are doing now, China in particular.

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Oversupplied, underperforming China’s oversupply of residential real estate isn’t going anywhere any time soon

f you only looked at the price tags month to month, you might think China’s real estate industry was staging a comeback. From June to September this year China saw average new home prices per square meter grow more rapidly by the month to end September up 0.2% from August—and down only 2.94% from the same period in 2014, a substantial improvement over June’s year-on-year fall of 5.87%. While prices in China’s top megacities grew far more than their lower-tier peers, those reporting month-on-month price growth also rose from 20 out of 70 monitored cities in May to double that number in

September, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. But September also marked a sixyear low for investment growth in real estate projects, notching another consecutive month of deceleration as sales growth tapered off, holding at 15.3% from the previous month in the face of a sustained and substantial glut of housing in addition to uncertain demand. Indeed, by one measure housing demand in China may have already peaked in absolute terms, meaning that any recovery would entail first burning off the current surplus of homes so that developer inventories return to lower pre-surge levels. That means it’s up to

policymakers to decide how hard and fast that adjustment will be, after which strong underlying demand can step in to ensure more sustainable turnover. But while some segments and sectors will see growth despite broader losses, industry observers and analysts aren’t expecting any gains in Beijing and Shanghai to lead a widespread rebound in property any time soon. Instead, it appears that the prospects of top-tier cities have detached from the rest of the national real estate market, where the outlook is far more grim. “For non-first-tier cities I personally still have concerns that overstock remains a major issue,” said Carl-

China Economic Review | December 2015

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Percentage change (annual)

Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales By Value and Area 20%

Sales Value

10%

Floor Space

0% -10% -20% y r c g r t p b n l Fe Ap Ju Au -Oc -De -Ma -Ma Ju Se nn- an- ann n n n- ann Ja Ja J J Ja Ja Ja Ja J Ja

by Xie, head of China research for global real estate consultancy Colliers International. “Especially in residential property markets.”

Investor impact That prices have recovered as much as they have in recent months can be attributed in part to a reversal of downpayment requirements introduced in 2011 and 2012 meant to cool down what regulators saw as a rapidly overheating market. “Generally speaking, changes in interest rates and changes in the money supply through [banks’] reserve requirement ratio do not have that much effect on the housing market,” said Michael Cole, proprietor of China real estate news site Mingtiandi. “What has really had an impact has been home purchase restrictions that involve down payments.” Those rules, known as home purchasing restrictions, didn’t forbid speculative buying, but made it a whole lot costlier for those who already owned a home. Authorities have backtracked on those restrictions twice this year: In March they lowered down payments for buyers of second homes in lower-tier cities from 60% to 40%.

China Economic Review | December 2015

Source: NBS

Yet while gains in sales value have outpaced those of floor space volume sold for the year to date, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, growth in both has been slowing of late. The latest available figures for September show gains for value holding at 15.3% year-on-year from the previous month’s reading, while gains in floor space sold eked up only 0.3%. That stall might help explain why regulators lowered the down payment requirement yet again in September, from 30% to 20% for buyers without loans on their existing properties. Such moves - and others lifting similar restrictions in first-tier cities - had given speculators the green light they were waiting for, Cole said. But the monthly numbers out of the statistics bureau seem to suggest that individual investors are looking at top-tier cities - which have also loosened home purchase restrictions - in order to get more bang for their buck. Xie said that his company had identified a significant trend among cashrich Chinese investors refocusing their gaze on the real estate market, with some having sold off their existing additional top-tier assets in order to reinvest the proceeds.

In top tier cities, he said, ”individual investors are gradually taking more initiative, stronger interest in investing in upscale or high end luxury property sector instead of the mass market in order for them to gain stronger capital appreciation in the next round of the market cycle.” As a result, the chief competition for retail investors’ money in cities like Beijing and Shanghai comes from offshore property, which can also offer a path to legal emigration and had until recently been from the home purchase restrictions that were lifted this year. Gains in Shanghai have been so swift that on October 26, the city’s party boss announced plans to rein them in—though it’s unclear how, and state media subsequently reported new home sales surged last week by 20%. Xie noted that based on transactions Colliers’ had observed there and in Beijing, “some buyers have purchased property in the high-end [segment] for less than two months—and they gained a 10% increase in capital value.”

Secondary concerns The secondary market likewise seems to indicate divergence in valuation between top-tier cities and those of lower rank. Although the National Bureau of Statistics doesn’t publish figures on volume or sales for the second-hand home market, in mid-October a subsidiary of Beijing-based property services firm Guoxinda launched its own “China City Housing Index”, which purports to track both stats for 337 mainland cities using publicly available data scraped from the sites of more than 500 real estate agencies. Of those cities, four are in Tier-1 and

ECONOMY

25 in Tier-2; another 83 rank at Tier 3, with a further 264 grouped together in Tier 4. Using online listings to discern real estate realities means that the index’s output is based on potentially questionable input, but in lieu of official data it provides the best available view of a market that is difficult to decipher at the best of times. Prices, tracked since August of 2014, appear to reflect those of the primary market, with Tier-1 beginning to break away from the pack late last year and at last count having seen aggregate gains of over 10%. Meanwhile, Tier-2 cities have seen gradual price growth after reaching bottom in early in 2015. But improvement in the third and particularly fourth tiers have been short-lived, with the latter down close to 4% since records began. One might expect sales volumes to show a similar dip, which Cole said would be a red flag. “A slow-down in transactions volumes for second-hand homes will show you that, even though prices might appear stable, that buyers are not motivated,” he said. But the new index appears to show

just the opposite: While first-tier cities’ gains dominated for much of the year’s first half in terms of second-hand floorspace sold, third and especially fourth-tier volumes shot up suddenly in August and have yet to come down. Thus, as prices drop, sales appear to be picking up in the least developed of China’s property markets. Yet if Guoxinda’s pricing statistics are to be believed, there seems little indication that price cuts so far and the resulting demand come anywhere close to what is needed to relieve the country’s real estate market of its tremendous glut in the short term.

Long hangover However much cadres in Shanghai might bloviate about a property bubble, the truth is that demand in the municipality will almost certainly remain strong for the foreseeable future, as it has in Hong Kong—and the alternative, now faced by many smaller cities in China, would be far worse. The total unsold housing inventory on the mainland is hard to pin down because the definition of unsold

inventory only counts finished housing that is ready to be sold. In an April study the International Monetary Fund estimated year-end inventory for 2013 stood at about triple the official figure, and noted that in mid-2014 local data showed two years of inventory in contrast to national figures indicating just four months’ worth. Rosalea Yao, a real estate analyst with research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, constructed a makeshift measurement of implied inventories based on the difference between cumulative housing starts and cumulative sales by developers. The resulting gap showed 34 months of sales (3 billion square meters) in 2014, set to decline to about 30 months’ worth this year. Compared to a historical average of 22 months’ worth of unsold housing on developers’ books (just over the 20 months construction projects take from start to finish), that leaves eight months of inventory by Yao’s reckoning—overcapacity that she expect will take far longer to unload thanks to new project starts and completions expected in the interim.

中国各线城市二手房出售挂牌价指数走势图挂牌价指数

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China Economic Review | December 2015

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中国各线城市二手房出售挂牌量指数走势图挂牌量指数

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1,000

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But while inventories are coming down, Yao said she expected continued decline in construction through the first quarter of 2016, and said a rebound was unlikely next year thanks to the aggregate glut still weighing on smaller cities that needs to be burnt off. A faster adjustment - in which authorities let starts decline without much interference - could result in a cyclical rebound for construction in 2017 or 2018, though more intervention could delay that. Still, Yao said, “I would continue to think that the faster adjustment should be the base case.”

State of expansion While state-owned enterprises have always been a presence in China’s real estate markets, it was only last year that one toppled privately-owned China Vanke to become the largest developer by sales. And according to a recent Deutsche Bank report on 36 major mainland property developers listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai, state-backed expansion hasn’t let up despite market turmoil.

China Economic Review | December 2015

According to the report, 10 key stateowned firms have attained faster market share growth than their private counterparts, with total market share up to 10.1% in the first nine months of this year from 8.8% in 2014, Deutsche Bank analysts Tony Tsang and Jason Ching said in the report, as cited by the South China Morning Post. “In the past, industry consolidation in the China property market was mainly characterised by the listed developers taking market share from the unlisted developers,” Tsang and Ching wrote. But starting in 2014, “even among the listed developers, the stateowned developers are gaining market share, while most private developers (especially the small- to mid-caps) are no longer gaining market share, or are even losing share.” Indeed, private developers including Dalian Wanda, Country Garden and Shimao Property recorded declines in market share during the period. Meanwhile, state players like China Overseas Land & Investment, Poly Real Estate Group and China Resources Land, Greentown China Holdings all gained

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ground. The researchers expected the central government would debut more support policies to boost property sales in the year’s final quarter, with stateowned developers like those above tipped to benefit more than most.

Consumption-driven Yet the same drive to abandon heavy industry for consumption and servicesbased growth in China has also redrawn the map for the property sector, outlining a new landscape where gains still exist, but are unlikely to be so widely shared. The most marked beneficiary is logistics real estate, where investment is ample and willing but opportunities are less obvious or subject to more geographical caveats. Interest began building in 2013 based on the recognition that if Chinese consumers were going to power the country’s economy, they’d need better logistical networks to deliver goods to them. “Demand for modern logistics facilities in China is driven by long-term, structural trends in domestic consumption and the country’s need to replace

ECONOMY

Top Chinese Property Developers By Sales 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Name Greenland Group China Vanke Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Poly Real Estate Group Evergrande Real Estate Group Country Garden Holdings China Overseas Land & Investment China Resources Land Shimao Property Holdings Greentown China Holdings

Listing SHA, HKG SHA, HKG HKG SHA HKG HKG HKG HKG HKG HKG

Ownership State Private Private State Private Private State State Private Private

Sales (bn) ¥240.30 ¥215.10 ¥147.00 ¥137.00 ¥131.70 ¥128.80 ¥122.10 ¥72.20 ¥71.20 ¥66.00

Y/y growth 47.85% 23.60% 12.98% 9.51% 21.66% 17.38% 4.36% 6.02% 6.16% 19.18%

2013 2 1 3 4 7 6 5 8 9 10

Source: Compiled by Mingtiandi from company announcements, Soufun

obsolete logistics facilities,” said Kent Yang, president of Global Logistic Properties China. Yang added that the firm’s new fund would begin purchasing land later this year and begin construction on new developments in April. In July the Singapore-based developer of distribution centers closed funding for its second mainlandfocused investment fund with US$3.7 billion of equity commitments from itself and investors, enabling investment capacity of about US$7 billion, roughly twice its previous China fund. Since then it has leased a total of 283,000 square meters of warehouse space in China, a total area thet is roughly 30,000 square meters larger than the entirety of new floor space available in all of Shanghai last week. Yang said claimed about 80% of existing logistics facilities in China were “obsolete and not in strategically significant locations,” but added that land supply had become more scares thanks to land reforms reducing the supply available for industrial facilities in large urban areas—exactly the kind of proximity logistics hubs need. Collier’s Xie said that logistics property expansion would be more limited

in southern China, where large-scale properties were in short supply, and northern China, where land available for sale was also limited. But he favored Eastern China and the central cities of Wuhan and Chongqing for more distribution center developments going forward.

Downside’s upside The same forces driving expansion for logistics are also threatening brick-andmortar retail: In January major mainland property developer Dalian Wanda announced it would close or restructure 30 of its China retail venues, and in August indicated more more such changes were underway. But none of these sectors are likely to pick up the slack left by the residential market. Yao, at Gavekal, pointed to one bright spot in social housing: With investment a national drive to redevelop slums in major cities underperforming this year, she suggested an uptick in government funds to the project could provide some relief in the near-term for the construction. “As long as this kind of construction will not increase the inventory that should be fine,” Yao said. Indeed the the need for such rede-

velopment highlights the mismatch of developer desires and more modest demands local market demands that helped bring about the current glut. But while excess inventory may well take years to work through, home ownership remains a must for marriage in China, notes Cole, and underlying demand for (appropriately located and reasonably priced) housing remains strong. question is whether ppl willing to buy at current prices—and for now, they aren’t. “I don’t have a nice line graph of demand for housing, but if I did, that’s been steadily going up in the last five years,” Cole said. “The line graphs that’s been going to be going up and down over the last five years is ‘am I interested in buying a house at the current prices in my city’.” Hence, the future well-being of China’s real estate industry depends on a successful transition to consumptiondriven growth and the necessary resolve on the part of policymakers not to panic when housing sales slow down—as they will almost certainly continue to do, at least most everywhere outside of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, in 2016.

China Economic Review | December 2015

CULTURE MAP

Jiuzhou new world Smart Life in the “New Experience Era”

n September 2015, a new city landmark was born in Changzhou. Located in the center of Lanling commercial district, labeled as “art, humanity, light luxury and nature”, the Jiuzhou New World Plaza urban complex infuses infinite vitality into the business world of Changzhou. This complex of over one million square meters integrates the central landscape mansion, JiuZhou New World Plaza shopping center, with refined decorated apartments, quality residential areas, Jiuzhou Digital City, SOHO and hotels. Stretching from The basement to the seventh floor, Jiuzhou New World Plaza embraces diverse business operations including supermarketa , five-star cinema, fitness center, entertainment

China Economic Review | December 2015

venues, restaurants and family land. It is the debut location in Changzhou for 45% of the 300 brands settled here.

Creativity · Experience Featuring a vision of “Creative Dining, Kid’s Fun and Quality Life”, Jiuzhou New World is in constant pursuit of innovation when establishing leisure projects. The offline experience pavilion of Spacemirai.com presented by SPACE Asset Management Group is on the third floor. 1:1 full-size statues of Iron Man, Captain America and other super heroes stand impressively in their shining armor. Faithfully reproduced movie scenes build a wonderland for animation fans and collectors. Besides, inside

the City Hero Pavilion are displayed models of various animation images in different sizes, offering a visual feast as well as unforgettable memories. Located on the fifth floor, Omnijoi International Cinema possesses the second-to-none IMAX Screen in Jiangsu Province with a big 4D hall reaching 20 meters high and a broad screen extending 17 meters high, plus a splendid setting and a top-level audio and visual experience.

The Joyland Family - Hi-tech Entertainment Super interactive motion sensing game center – The Joyland Family is a new trial of Jiuzhou New World. The broad space covering several thousand square

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meters is fitted with a diverse array of spectacular hi-tech motion sensing games. Vividly simulated F1 car takes you to different world-renowned tracks in a speedy race with other players. The fighter plane’s cabin experience reproduces the real cockpit scene reflected in full dome equipment and guides you to and through the flight battles with the highly simulative control unit at hand; surround sound magnifies the thrilling effect. The three-dimensional space capsule rotates freely to 360 degrees, switching among different speeds and bringing forth a unique 3D experience. A virtual roller coaster crosses mountains, rivers, erupting volcanoes and disastrous floods at high speed with real jolts and a sense of inclines. As an amazing production of Changzhou Joyland Company, The Joyland Family incorporates many recreational facilities that suit both young and old. Jiuzhou New World breaks the traditional shopping mall mode by integrating experience, entertainment, dining and themed retail. The traditional scale disparity among shopping stores, dining venues and entertaining facilities fades away. Instead, new business modes of indoor theme parks and “recreational experiential retail + dining” create an unprecedented life experience.

Internet Era Witnesses the Marriage of Business and Technology Jiuzhou New World introduces many creative brands featuring smart experience. Moreover, a series of hi-tech equipment installations are fitted in the mall, creating an incomparable consumer journey. In addition to the first MIUI store in Changzhou, the Robot Restaurant

on the 4th floor is perhaps the most impressive dining venue in Jiuzhou New World Plaza. The 300 square meter restaurant features a simulated space capsule interior with stars twinkling all around, and robot waiters warmly greeting every customer and delivering dishes to each table correctly by using optical magnetic strip inductive technology. There are also attractive singing and dancing performances. One-stop dining solutions are offered in the plaza: consumers can search for the specific locations of each restaurant, see detailed menu with prices, book seats, order dishes and pay the bill via a mobile APP. An array of smart devices are seen everywhere such as virtual fittings, air curtain projection, electronic screen and WII motion sensing games to offer the latest and multiple smart services. Products are delivered to home on schedule through smart goods delivery systems. When customers are unable to afford certain pieces due to a lack of cash on hand or sufficient card balance,

the plaza provides payment services for small goods. The smart parking system allows car owners to reach their assigned parking place in the shortest time and locate the place quickly while leaving. Payment is also conveniently done through the system. Brand new smart outfits overturn people’s recognition of shopping malls and declare the coming of the “New Experience Era” in this city complex. In the “Internet+” age, traditional business modes are changing continuously while shopping malls have also undergone a transformation in the scitech evolution. Jiuzhou New World seizes the essence of the background to this new era, developing new business modes, creating a unique experience-oriented consuming environment and establishing a hi-tech smart shopping mall that caters to every demand. Jiuzhou New World is undoubtedly a fashionable life center second to none in Changzhou. (The article is offered by SPACE)

China Economic Review | December 2015

文化地图

九洲新世界 “新体验时代”的智慧生活天地

携长江，南衔太湖，东望东海，

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常州优美的生态环境与园林景观

等元素融入建筑中，远眺犹如一条游动的

塑就着城市一道道亮丽的风景线，其悠久

龙儿，呈现出富有动感的曲线，近看附着

的历史遗址与文化遗产记录着岁月流动的

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轨迹。

的映照下反射出耀眼的光芒，宛如流动的

品茗江南水乡的风情，探寻历史的

溪水，波光粼粼，蜿蜒前行。

足迹，常州逐渐成为人们闲暇之余的短期

行走于九洲新世界中，舒适与惬意

度假胜地。近年来，承袭其丰厚的历史底

拂面而来。商场外围的绿化带隔离了道路

蕴，不断将创意元素融入城市建设中，环

的喧嚣，绚丽多彩的花草树木绽放着四季

球恐龙城的奇趣动感与休闲体验、淹城春

的缤纷。下沉式广场的旱式喷泉、LED水

秋乐园的自然生态与人文底蕴、环球动漫

幕墙与表演舞台，内中庭的艺术水柱，广

嬉戏谷的神秘奇幻与极限挑战，无不吸引

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题商业的精彩纷呈。

空间。大型墙面雕塑人偶、蓝色梦幻美人

2015年9月，又一座城市地标于常州

鱼及众多趣味性雕塑，让艺术爱好者难以

诞生，地处常州市中心兰陵商圈的核心位

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使这座常州之最成为人们休闲娱乐的首选

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之地。

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Quatortze、Juicy

时尚购物新风。

为新时代下的常州商业注入无限活力。

创新·滋味九洲新世界—时尚生活引领者雄踞常州核心区，坐拥市区中心两

创意·体验主打“全餐饮、全儿童、全生活”

条中轴主干道，九洲新世界广场显著的

从地下1层至地上7层，九洲新世界

理念的九洲新世界，不仅注重餐饮与零售

地理位置使其在建设之初便获得了众多

引入精品超市、五星级影院、运动健身、

的规划，作为吃喝玩乐购的一站式购物中

瞩目。100多万平方米的巨型体量汇集

休闲娱乐、特色餐饮、亲子乐园等多元化

心，九洲新世界对于娱乐休闲项目的塑

了中央景观大宅、九洲新世界广场购物

业态。在入驻的300多家品牌中，45%的

造，亦追求极致与创新。

中心、精装公寓、精品住宅、九洲数码

品牌为首次进驻常州，除了大润发在中国

思彼思集团精心呈现的Spacemi-

城、SOHO、酒店等多项物业。历经3年

大陆开设的首家精品超市外，很高兴遇见

rai.com线下体验馆位于九州新世界的3

多的精雕细琢，新生的九州新世界广场以

你的文艺范，绿茶、香港老饭店的地道风

楼，Iron Man、美国队长等超级英雄等身

商业为载体，融入本土艺术与区域文化体

味，THE ONE与Mango Six的咖啡醇香

1:1珍藏版雕塑赫然而立，炫目的超级装

验，展示独特的城市文化生活理念。

与特色甜品都于九洲新世界汇集，在这些

备，真实还原的电影场景，非同凡响的感

首次落户常州的店铺中体验时尚生活，踏

官震撼，这里是动漫爱好者与收藏家的专

上一场多重感官的奇妙旅程。

属天地。除了超级英雄的华丽现身，城市

九洲新世界是以轻奢为主题的时尚体验式购物中心，开创性的设计理念与特色规划为人们带来了全然不同的生活体验，引领着常州的生活时尚潮流。

创享·艺文

开业之初，九洲新世界便人潮汹涌，丰富的业态规划与品牌吸引了无数眼球。

立足于沪宁线上人均餐饮平均消

英雄馆内还展出了不同比例、不同动漫形

费最高的城市，九洲新世界扩大了餐饮

象的珍藏版模型。踏入城市英雄馆中，尽

品类的占比，将国内外各色菜系与料理

享一场饕餮视觉盛宴，与超级英雄相会，

囊括其中，以精而全的组合形式打造独

留下难能可贵的特殊回忆。

沿袭常州这一龙城的古老传说，九洲

特的餐饮体验。同时，为避免同质化，

而位于5楼的五星级幸福蓝海国际影

新世界的建筑规划以“水的灵性、龙的传

九洲新世界将品牌重心瞄准轻奢，引入

城的IMAX影院，无不创造着感官的极致

China Economic Review | December 2015

文化地图

差异，以室内主题乐园与娱乐“体验式零售+餐饮”的商业模式创造着全新的生活体验。

互联网时代，商业与科技联姻九洲新世界引入多个赋有智能体验的品牌，并将众多高科技设备置于商场内部，创造无可比拟的消费体验。除了引进江苏首家小米智能体验店外，位于4楼的机器人餐厅，或许是九洲新世界最令人印象深刻的餐饮品牌。在300 平方米的餐厅里，引入机器人服务员，运用光学磁条感应技术，使机器人根据座位编号，准确无误地把饭菜送到各个餐桌前。这里有机器人亲切的问候，亦有颇为新奇的唱歌与跳舞表演，在繁星点点的太空舱内，享用非同一般的用餐体验，智能完成点单、下单、付款等一站式消费。不仅如此，顾客可通过手机APP，预先查询购物中心内各家餐饮的具体位置、详细的菜单与标价，并在家中实现提前预定餐体验，20米的影院高度，17米高的宽阔屏

过山车，以第一人称视角体验急速穿越高

幕，位居省内之最。广阔的观影空间、4D

山、河流、火山喷发、洪水灾难的刺激场

九洲新世界还在商场内配置了虚拟试

放映厅绚丽的布景、顶级的视听体验，于

景。3D影像的视觉冲击，真实模拟颠簸、

衣、气幕投影、电子导视屏、WII体感游戏

夜间与友人作伴，于假日携手家庭观赏一

倾斜等动作的动感平台，这是一场超越现

等智能化设备，提供最新最多元的智能化

部沁人心脾的影片，令生活仿佛着上了不

实的惊险旅程。

服务。通过智能送货系统，顾客不必将繁

同的色彩。

嬉戏欢乐港—高科技娱乐圣地超级互动娱乐体感游戏中心嬉戏欢乐港，是九州新世界又一次创新型尝试。数

位、点菜并完成支付的操作。

嬉戏欢乐港恍如体感游戏爱好者的天

重的货物提回，物品将由购物中心在规定

堂，玩家可以单挑、对战、多人组队等多

时间内送达家中。当顾客遇到银行卡或现

种模式进行游戏，既能与虚拟角色展开惊

金不足的情况，购物中心还可实行小额物

心动魄的较量，也可与同伴在以假乱真的

品代付款服务。

游戏场景中开启一场酣畅淋漓的挑战。

地下停车库设有的智能停车系统，可

千平方米的宏大空间，装载着各类酷炫的

除了前所未有的游戏体验，嬉戏欢乐

使车主通过手机导航系统，在最短的时间

高科技体感游戏，为青少年及家庭游客提

港亦引入了众多老少皆宜的休闲设施。于

内到达指定停车位，并在离开时迅速找到

供了独一无二的娱乐体验。

表演剧场欣赏一场虚拟主持人的脱口秀与

停车位置，完成智能付款。

乘坐拟真化的F1动感赛车，于世界各

惟妙惟肖的表演，于录音棚般的真实场景

全新的智能配备，刷新着人们对于购

国著名的赛道上尽情驰骋，与其他玩家展

中体验一把化身明星的滋味，于桌面保龄

物中心的认知，也宣告着城市综合体“新

开一场极速前进的追逐与冒险，感受逼真

球感受真实保龄球与虚拟现实技术所打造

体验时代”的来临。在“互联网+”时代

的F1赛车体验；戴上球幕机甲进入飞行座

的独家趣味，于DIY手工坊中酝酿一段难

下，传统的商业模式正不断被颠覆，购物

舱，战斗机驾驶舱的独家视野于球幕中真

忘的回忆，最后于主题餐厅与主题店铺中

中心也在科技变革中不断转型，九洲新世

实还原，结合高仿真的飞行控制器、战斗

尽享悠然时光。

界抓住了这一时代的精髓，打磨出全新的

机座椅及环绕声音响，如同驾驶着真实的

嬉戏欢乐港由常州嬉戏谷公司倾力打

业态模式，营造独特的体验式消费环境，

战斗机般身临其境，体验与敌人奋勇作战

造，嬉戏欢乐港的入驻，使九洲新世界突

打造一应俱全的高科技智慧商城，成为常

的震撼场景；登上三维旋转式太空舱，时

破了传统购物中心的业态模式，将体验、

州独树一帜的时尚生活中心。而常州，也

疾时缓，360度任意旋转，领略置身于三

娱乐、餐饮及具有针对性的主题零售有

将在这些引领潮流的城市地标的推动下，

维空间中自由旋转的独特感受；搭载虚拟

机结合，淡化了购物、餐饮与娱乐的比例

迸发出新的生机与韵味。（思彼思供稿）

China Economic Review | December 2015

CULTURE MAP

Disney’s legendary kingdom

n the 1920s, the first dialogued animation film <Steamboat Willie> was born. With multiple titles, Walt Disney, the founder of The Walt Disney Company, introduced Mickey Mouse to the public. From then on, Disney began its victorious March to domination in animation film, theme parks and derivative products sales. Disney is an exception in the entertainment world for it not only creates fairy tales, but also extends them into the real world, creatIng an everlasting business legend with its unique model. As one of the most popular animation figures, Mickey Mouse ushered in the Disney Empire. By 1931, the “Mickey Mouse Club” had over

China Economic Review | December 2015

one million members. Donald Duck is another famous Disney produce whose fame is comparable to Mickey Mouse. This irascible, unlucky, complaining duck also possesses uniquely perseverant characteristics, never defeated by failures and continuing to fight to the very end. Disney also creates many other well-known figures: kind-hearted and passionate Goofy, elegant and beautiful Snow White, humorous and virtuous Cinderella, lovely honey fan Winnie the Pooh, cute and brave Simba…… Animators acutely observe the details of life, deliberate In the design of every image and boldly endowing them with typically iconic American characteristics such as

heroism, individualism, positive spirit. They meticulously plan and perfect every story line and unfailingly impress the audience with positive energy.

Fantastic Theme Park What a bold attempt it is to move the scenes in fairy tales into the real world and extend imaginary childhood happiness to public reality! The idea of constructing Disneyland was attributed to an specific experience in Walt Disney’s daily life. One day, when Walt took his kids to an playground, he was much moved by their pure happiness on the merry-go-round. So he decided to build a park himself, not only for little kids but for the whole family to enjoy. Afterwards, with the help of the

CULTURE MAP

National Broadcasting Company, Walt and his brother Roy spent all they had and managed to build the first Disneyland in Anaheim, California in 1955. In October 1971, the first part of Disney World in Orlando had its official opening. Its name was later changed to Walt Disney World. Now the Walt Disney Resort in Orlando is the biggest Disney resort in the world, boasting four theme parks: Disney’s Magic Kingdom, Disney’s Epcot, Disney’s Hollywood Studio and Disney’s Animal Kingdom; two water parks: Disney Typhoon Lagoon and Disney Blizzard Beach; 30 theme hotels, Disney Town and ESPN Wide World of Sports. Disney so far has six global toplevel destinations for family travel. In addition to the Disneyland Resort in California, there is Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, the Tokyo Disney Resort, Disneyland Resort Paris and Hong Kong Disneyland Resort,

with Shanghai Disney Resort under construction and due to be unveiled in 2016. In Disneyland, Disney fans all over the world together enjoy an unprecedented sensual experience as if entering the animation world. Fantasy turns into reality.

Bright Future Full of Imaginations The success of animation is surely the precondition for derivative products sales. In 1929, a man came up to Walt Disney in a hotel and said he would pay 300 dollars for permission to print Mickey Mouse on his own table. According to Walt Disney, such requests kept increasing as time passed by. Gradually, derivative products sales and franchising came to constitute one of the main sources of income for Disney. In 2003, Mickey Mouse ranked at the top of the Rich List of Virtual Images issued by Forbes, with 5.8 bil-

lion dollars value. Undoubtedly, the industry chain of Disney’s derivative products began wth this little mouse. In 1848, Disney started publishing Mickey Mouse Magazine and by 2002, it could be found in 24 countries and regions worldwide. Moreover, audiovisual goods and authorized products of Mickey Mouse are seen everywhere. At present, Disney-related products exceed 10,000 in number. In China alone, there are more than 100 companies with authorization to sell Disney products with several thousand of counters in operation. Franchising and brand authorizing gives Disney a steady flow of income without a cent of expense for extra production, a creative mode to deeply dig into a brand’s added value. Disney has exceedingly accurate market positioning. Each series targets different ages and genders. For example, the princess series is designed for girls, while automobile images are for boys aged from 3 to 6, and Marvel heroes for boys from 6 to 11. Disney re-integrates individual princess images and forms a new diverse princess series, which has contributed four billion dollars to Disney revenue so far. In 2014, with a net income of 7.5 billion dollars, Disney left Time Warner, Viacom and 21st Century Fox far behind. With various classic cartoons and films that bring continuous surprises, The amazing Disneyland that attracts so many visitors every day, powerful marketing and brilliant derivative products, Disney has turned the original simple workshop into a giant, incomparable entertainment kingdom. (The article is offered by SPACE; Related pictures are from Internet)

China Economic Review | December 2015

文化地图

迪士尼历经92载，缔造传奇王国上

世纪20年代，世界上第一部全对白

美术公司，为堪萨斯城的企业制作动画短

物华特 • 迪士尼逝世，之后的20年间迪士

动画《威利号汽船》诞生，身兼多

片。当开始创作《爱丽丝喜剧系列》时，

尼一度低迷蛰伏，不但在经典动画的产量

个头衔的迪士尼公司创始人华特 • 迪士尼将

华特的资金告罄，公司破产。华特并为因

上屈指可数，而且在公司未来的发展方向

米老鼠带入大众的视野，开启了迪士尼在

此气馁，他怀揣着梦想和仅有的40美金来

上也有不同的争执。这种局面直到华特的

动画影视、主题公园与各类衍生品销售领

到好莱坞。在华特哥哥罗伊的帮助下，两

侄子（Roy Disney）重返公司，破除了家

域的称霸之路。迪士尼在娱乐业界可谓是

人在叔叔的车库里完成了《爱丽丝在卡通

族式管理、改聘职业经理人经营才终结。

一个异类，它不但制造梦幻童话，还把童

国》。当时的动画是无声黑白短片，迪士

公司的名字也由“Walt Disney Picture

话世界延伸到现实世界，并运用这一独特

尼的早期作品需要四处兜售才间或有人购

Company”更改为“The Walt Disney

的模式缔造了商业传奇，久盛不衰。

买。直到1927年，华特创作出第一个广受

Company”。从此迪士尼不但朝着多元

欢迎的卡通人物“幸运兔奥斯华”（Os-

化经营的方向大步迈进，而且再次创作了

一波三折的创业历程

wald the Lucky Rabbit）才有了转机。

一批诸如《美女与野兽》、《阿拉丁》、

迪士尼(The Walt Disney Com-

然而幸运兔的版权在1928年被环球影业取

《狮子王》、《玩具总动员》等等的经典

pany)闻名遐迩，近年来连续收购皮克

得，使华特 • 迪士尼认识到必须自己拥有电

动画传世名篇！

斯（PIXAR Animation Studio）、漫威

影版权的重要性。由此，华特的灵感加上

（Marvel Entertainment Inc.）和卢卡斯

伊沃克斯的设计以及华特妻子莉莉莲的命

影业（Lucas Films）等知名企业，其在

名，有史以来最著名的老鼠—米老鼠诞

娱乐业的老大地位与发展势头恐怕已无人

生了！

可以说米老鼠是迪士尼帝国的发端，同时也是最受欢迎的动画形象。在1931年

比肩。这只名副其实的商业巨鳄几乎渗透

然而米老鼠为主角的前两部影片《飞

的时候，“米老鼠俱乐部”会员已达100

了全球各个产业领域，将迪士尼文化植根

机迷》（Plane C razy）和《飞奔的高卓

万。对此，华特自己的看法是：“米奇是

于世界的每一个角落，使迪士尼的名字令

人》（Gallopin’ Gaucho）都未被发行商

一位好先生，从不害人，他常身陷困境，

男女老幼都耳熟能详。然而魔力的背后汇

看中。直至有声动画电影《威利号汽船》

但不是他的错。他最后总能化险为夷，而

集着几代迪士尼人的努力，其发展历程也

（Steamboat Willie）的上映才使得迪斯

且面带笑容。”他还认为米老鼠的个性源

正如它的作品一样堪称传奇。

尼和他的工作室声名鹊起，获得巨大的成

于卓别林，“我们想让一只虽然很小的老

迪士尼的创始人华特 • 伊利亚斯 • 迪士

功，甚至受到了奥斯卡的垂青— 1931

鼠，却具有卓别林的想法，虽为小人物却

尼（Walter Elias Disney）出生于美国伊

年，电影艺术与科学学院专门为迪斯尼作

具有尽力而为的精神。”然而更多人却认

利诺伊州芝加哥市，在密苏里州马瑟林的

品设置了“最佳动画短片”的奖项。从此

为，米老鼠更像华特 • 迪士尼本人。华特

一个农场度过了童年的大部分时光。他对

迪士尼开始迈入黄金期，《三只小猪》、

亲自为米老鼠配音，那局促不安而慌乱

自然和动植物的兴趣融合了他在绘画和艺

《唐老鸭》、《白雪公主》、《木偶奇遇

的假声别人还真学不像。米老鼠的个性中

术上的天赋，使他在七岁时就已出售自己

记》、《小飞象》等作品陆续登场，无一不

也蕴含着华特的冒险精神与正直诚实，缺

的素描画。在芝加哥的麦金利高中阶段，

广受好评。二战结束后，《仙履奇缘》、

乏世故却要胜过他人的童稚野心。洞悉这

华特更把精力倾于绘画、摄影上，甚至利

《爱丽丝梦游仙境》、《小飞侠》的推

一点的迪士尼画家在下笔前总会拿华特的

用课余时间去美术学院上课来提高自己绘

出更把迪士尼动画王国的发展推向了高

特性作为参照，并极力捕捉他的表情和动

画的修养技能。

潮。1950年，华特利用在英国的冻结资

作。华特也尽力使米老鼠的个性一致，虽

第一次世界大战后，华特从法国归

金制作了诸如《金银岛》等影片，从此还

然有时撰稿人的一段话可以引得大家哄堂

来，邂逅了乌布 • 伊沃克斯（Ub Iwerks），

催生了迪士尼电影制片厂后来的主流产

大笑，但华特却说：“米奇不会是这样

华特想在商业艺术领域大展拳脚的理想得

品—真人实景电影。

的。”正是因为米老鼠贯彻始终、独树一

遇知音，从而成立了伊沃克斯 • 迪士尼商业

精彩纷呈的经典形象

China Economic Review | December 2015

1966年12月15日，迪士尼的灵魂人

帜的个性，才使得它获得全世界的喜爱。

文化地图

及香港迪士尼乐园度假区，在建的上海迪士尼度假区也将于2016年揭开神秘的面纱。在乐园里，全世界迪士尼迷们都会享有前所未有的感官体验，仿佛身临其境般地走进动画影片中的世界，让幻想变成了真实。

充满想象的无限未来动画成功是衍生品热销的先决条件。1929年的时候，曾有人到旅馆找到华特，要求用300美元准许把米老鼠的图像印在写字桌上。据华特说，后来这种需唐老鸭（Donald Duck）是与米老鼠

士尼产生了建造迪士尼乐园的想法。有一

求越来越多。逐渐地，衍生品和特许经营

并驾齐驱的著名人物。在1934年《聪明的

天他带着自己的孩子去游乐园玩耍，看到

权成为迪士尼的主要收入之一。2003年

小母鸡》中首次登场。在八九十年代，唐

他们在旋转木马上肆意欢笑，便萌生了自

《福布斯》杂志评选的“虚拟形象富豪

老鸭可能更受中国人的喜欢，或许是因为

己创办乐园的念头—但这是一个可以让

榜”中，米老鼠以58亿美元身价名列榜

这只鸭子脾气暴躁、运气很背、喜欢夸大

全家人共享天伦的乐园，而不仅仅是儿童

首。毫无疑问，迪士尼衍生品产业链的形

事实、经常抱怨以及毒舌的缘故，仿佛凝

公园。于是，华特与哥哥罗伊倾尽所有身

成也由这只老鼠开始。1948年迪士尼推出

聚了一切小丑般的喜剧元素。而在这些负

家，加上美国国家广播公司的援手，终于

了《米老鼠》杂志到2002年，这本杂志已

面因子下，唐老鸭却富有屡败屡战的抗争

在1955年于加利福尼亚的阿纳海姆建造了

遍布世界24个国家和地区，同时米老鼠的

精神，蕴含着不屈不挠的顽强品质。虽然

全球第一座迪士尼乐园。

音像制品和特许授权产品也遍地开花。如

唐老鸭不是卡尔 • 巴克斯（Carl Barks）创

1965年，华特 • 迪斯尼亲自主持设

今，迪士尼相关卡通形象的销售商品已超

造，但他对这只鸭子进行了改进和完善，

计了包含“未来世界”和“世界之窗”的

过10万种，仅在中国就有100多家公司获

最终形成现在唐老鸭傻乎乎又不乏趣味的

“未来世界的试验模型”（EPCOT），

得授权，销售专柜上千个。特许经营和品

形象。

当他染上肺癌不得不躺在病床上时，仍望

牌授权让迪士尼不用花一分钱用于制造，

除了米老鼠与唐老鸭，迪士尼还创

着天花板的方格，规划着以未来小区为概

仅仅凭借一个动画形象的反复利用便能获

造了无数家喻户晓的人物形象，有善良

念的EPCOT中心。在华特 • 迪斯尼辞世

得源源不断的收益，这就是迪士尼深入挖

朴实、乐观热情的高飞狗（Goofy)，有

后，罗伊不顾病躯，一心只想完成弟弟

掘品牌附加价值的创新模式。

温柔和善、美丽优雅的白雪公主（Snow

的遗愿。终于，1971年10月，佛罗里达

不仅如此，迪士尼对于市场有着极

white），有机智幽默、婉约善良的灰姑

奥兰多“迪斯尼世界”的第一部分终于正

其精准的定位。每个动画系列的受众年龄

娘（Cinderella），有贪吃蜂蜜、笨笨可

式对外开幕。罗伊坚持把乐园的名字由原

不同，如公主系列是针对女生的，汽车形

爱的小熊维尼（Winnie the pooh），有

本“迪斯尼世界”改为“华特迪斯尼世

象是针对3-6岁的男孩，漫威针对6-11

懵懂可爱、胆大乖巧的狮子辛巴（Sim-

界”（Walt D isney W orld）。现在，华

岁的男孩。迪士尼将独立的公主形象重新

ba）……这些成功的经典动画形象背后，

特迪斯尼度假区是世界上最大的迪士尼度

整合，形成美轮美奂、个性多元的公主系

都有着与米老鼠和唐老鸭一样富有人情味

假区，目前拥有四座主题乐园—神奇王

列，至今，公主系列已经为迪士尼贡献了

的动画师，他们敏锐地观察生活细节，精

国主题乐园、新纪元主题乐园、迪士尼好

40亿美元的收入。2014年，迪士尼75亿

益求精地推敲形象设计，大胆赋予角色典

莱坞影城和迪士尼动物王国，两座水上乐

美元的净收益让竞争对手时代华纳、维亚

型美国人所拥有的英雄主义、个人主义、

园—迪士尼台风湖水上乐园和暴风雪海

康母和21世纪福克斯难以望其项背。

乐观精神，精心设计并反复完善故事情

滩水上乐园，三十家主题酒店，一个迪士

经典无数且惊喜不断的卡通与电影，

节，始终用正面能量感染着世人。

尼小镇和一座别具风格的ESPN体育大世

令人流连忘返、游客如潮的迪士尼度假乐

界综合设施。

园，强大的营销和丰富多彩的衍生品、特

如梦如幻的主题乐园

迪士尼大家庭已拥有六个世界顶级的

许权，迪士尼将最初一个简陋的工作室缔

把童话中的场景搬到现实世界，让

家庭度假目的地，除了加州迪士尼乐园度

造成一个庞大的、旁人无可企及的娱乐王

童真与欢乐延展到现实，这是何等大胆奇

假区、奥兰多华特迪士尼世界度假区、东

国。（思彼思供稿，图片均来自于互联

特的想法。因为一次生活经历，华特 • 迪

京迪士尼度假区、巴黎迪士尼乐园度假区

网）

China Economic Review | December 2015

捕尽高端会议灵感铸就卓越服务品质浙江世贸君澜大饭店—您的专属会议管家 “欲把西湖比西子，淡妆浓抹总相宜”

大气的无柱式宴会厅，功能齐全、服务设

种重要商务活动均在此留下恢弘的一幕。

浙江世贸君澜大饭店作为一家土生土长

施完善，均配备大型舞台和专用化妆间；

同时，作为今年“中国杭州西湖国际博览

的江南酒店，骨子里就蕴含着某种文墨

六道同声传译系统，音响清晰明亮、沉稳

会”的主会场，对于西博会的完美承办，

香和书卷气，显现着江南水乡特有的俊

有力，重厚而不浑浊，全场环绕着恢弘声

使其无愧为浙江省最高规格的政务、商务

秀与玲珑，用最亲民的方式迎来送往。

感；专业LED大屏，清晰明亮，许多晚

和对外交流的重要活动场所之一。感恩、

在这里，没有惯常五星级酒店富丽堂皇

宴中的温馨镜头，已是宾客记忆中的美好

宽容、和谐、超越。君澜相信，君子间的

的侵略感，只有阳光与灯光柔和的呼应。

画面。

相处之所以长久，并不因其波澜壮阔，而

世贸君澜，正是一个隐于闹市的谦谦君客人进入房间，会发现床上已铺着他习惯

为您专业呈现至臻完美的会展空间

的软垫；手提电脑旁新添了温馨鼠标垫。

世贸国际会议厅，宽敞明亮、设施齐全。

步入餐厅，餐厅会为怀抱着婴童的客人

一期展厅居于整个大楼的中心，地上共分

送去可爱轻巧的婴儿床；为年迈的老人

4层，展览面积共计1万平方米；二期展厅

送上柔软舒适的靠垫；为身感不适的客

位于饭店后座的一、二层，面积9000平

人递上一碗热粥。其实度假何必车马劳

方米，适合于大型展览会、交易会及文化

顿，旅行的意义有时不在于行走，而在于

交流活动。展厅采光条件优越，设施先进

停留，找家酒店放松身心也不失为一件

齐全，室外广场宽阔，使会展功能如虎添

快事。

翼，完美至臻！

为您量身定制一站式高端会议服务

为您提供卓越的服务品质

作为“国际大会及会议协会（ICCA）”成

议灵感、铸就卓越服务品质”的会议承办

员之一，世贸君澜大饭店拥有一流的大型

理念，为会议方提供一站式高端会议服

会议室、无柱式宴会厅，以及承办大型会

务的量身定制。细致周到的管家式服务，

酒店官网：www.naradahz.com

议及宴会的丰富经验，分为2个大型宴会厅

关爱如影随形，专属的品质与热情，悉心

酒店电话：+86 (571) 87990888

（世贸厅760平米和国际厅700平米），

款待。

酒店传真：+86 (571) 87950088

子，恪守着自己细致温暖的待客之道。当

正是这些细水长流的平和之美。

饭店会议营销团队一直秉承“捕尽高端会

2个中型宴会厅（嘉禾厅360平米和嘉年

无论是商务谈判、产品展示、时装表

厅150平米）。世贸厅和国际厅均为典雅

演、新闻发布会，还是高级中西宴会，各

China Economic Review | December 2015

酒店地址：浙江杭州市曙光路122号微博地址：http://weibo.com/naradahz

品牌专访

优质睡眠健康能量之源 Mr. Kenneth NG 黄建安博士席梦思Simmons®中国区总经理（华中区）

据了解，席梦思的产品远销全球 100多个国家，作为一家发家于美国的企业，是否有针对不同的地区进行差异化的产品设计？

且所有席梦思Simmons®产品均符合欧盟

答：当然。我们的进口产品分别来自美国

mons®产品不含潜在有害的材料。

指令2002/95/EC及2011/65/EU管制危险物质的运用，包括铅、汞、镉、六价铬、多溴联苯及多休二苯醚。证明席梦思Sim-

和日本。美国进口的床垫偏软，适合喜欢在1995年开发的护脊系列，就是专门根据

在您看来，床垫在家具行业未来的竞争格局将会是怎样的？

亚洲人的体型开发设计的，非常适合我们

答：由于睡眠市场巨大，很多进口的品牌

中国人喜欢硬床的习惯。

进入中国，很多国产的品牌进入市场，同

舒适性床垫的客户。针对亚洲人群，我们

时越来越多的家具企业也开始着眼床垫的

床垫行业的竞争也日趋激烈，许多品牌都宣称自己是“睡眠专家”，席梦思的独特优势有哪些？

不同人群的产品，比如儿童款床垫，带来

为，专业的事情应该交给专业的人去做，

答：创建于1870年的床垫品牌席梦思

更妥帖的背部支持，能够保证青少年健康

真正对提升消费者睡眠质量有帮助的床垫

Simmons®，可以说是世界“健康睡眠

发育成长。

生产工艺是相当复杂的，它需要系统研

前景，觊觎这部分的市场份额，导致如今床垫市场竞争日益白热化。但我们始终认

专家”的倡导者和引领者，更是弹簧床技

究，没有一定的研发和积累，很难真正做到“提升睡眠质量”。作为“独立袋装弹

淀，我们在始终保持卓越品质的同时，不

与同类床垫品牌相比，席梦思的核心竞争力体现在何处？

断对床垫工艺进行改良，并缔造出更完美

答：作为业界翘楚，席梦思Simmons®品

145年的悠久历史，我们相信凭着席梦思

的睡眠产品。尽管中国高端健康床垫市场

牌绝对不是浪得虚名。席梦思Simmons®

Simmons®进入中国10周年的经验，并且

逐渐兴起，但作为世界顶级床垫品牌，我

品牌拥有140多年的历史，从一家传统的

在床垫市场上的知名度，我们必能作为行

们在拥有多项专利的同时，对各项生产工

家族企业，成功转型为国际化大企业，在

业的领导者存在。

艺和质量都代表着全球床垫行业最高标

全球超过100个国家拥有了销售网络。而

准，这正是席梦思Simmons®得天独厚的

能让我们席梦思Simmons®经久不衰的

优势之一。

原因就是—“技术”，我们的独立袋装

术的鼻祖。历经近145年的市场磨砺与积

簧床垫之父”，席梦思Simmons®具有

弹簧技术缔造了一个个无法效仿的睡眠神

未来在市场及产品等方面，席梦思如何规划？

话。140多年来，席梦思Simmons®始

答：在市场定位方面，通过我们的产品细

艺，缔造出更完美的睡眠产品，成为世界

分，针对不同的消费者给予最具性价比的

顶级床垫品牌。

终在保持卓越品质的同时，不断地改良工

产品。在产品上，我们也不断进行研究，

不仅如此，我们是非常注重绿色安全

有顶级的奢华黑牌系列，亮点在于添加钻

环保的品牌。2014年荣获“北京10大绿

石微粒，更有效地调节温度。也有中高端

色榜样”称号，席梦思Simmons®作为唯

系列，适用于对于健康睡眠有更多要求的

一荣获此殊荣的床垫品牌，一直以来从甄

人士。现在还有入门级系列，适合职场白

选材料到生产加工都严格把关，为消费

领，年轻群体等。同时，我们也开发针对

者提供更健康、舒适的睡眠享受。并

席梦思Simmons®中国区总经理（华中区） Cherry Jiang Mr. Kenneth NG 黄建安博士 Shanghai Regional Director China Economic Review | December 2015 67

海外地产

海外置业持续升温马来西亚深受中国买家青睐马来西亚“永久型”物业激发中国投资热

目

前，中国房地产市场调控仍处于深

服务，丽阳机构在上海静安嘉里中心开设

时，马来西亚没有遗产税，可以让子孙后

度调控中，尤其针对投资需求进行

了分公司。

代永久性保值或增值承继家业。银行贷款

了严厉遏制。因此，不少投资者逐渐将眼光转向海外。从欧美到东南亚，马来西亚脱颖而出，成为理想的置业地点，其房地产市场深受中国投资者青睐。

贷款，贷款利率在4.5%左右。稳定的经济增长、宽松的政策环境、

决定房地产升值的关键因素之一就是

低廉的土地成本，以及逐渐壮大的海外华

马来西亚排名前五的开发商—

规划。为了吸引更多投资者，马来西亚制

人市场，都成为国人置业马来西亚的重要

Tropicana Corporation Berhad丽阳机

定了大吉隆坡计划，预计将于2020年实现

因素。尤其是马来西亚政府为了鼓励外籍

构进入中国市场以来，旗下众多住宅产品

住在大吉隆坡地区人口，从现有的600万

人士长期居住而推出的“我的第二家园”

在中国投资者中已有口皆碑，先后开发

人增至1000万人，政府还推出特别奖励，

计划（简称“MM2H”），以“低门槛、

了位于雪兰莪州的丽阳曜景、Tropicana

邀请世界上100个杰出企业在马来西亚设

高效率”著称，受到移民人士欢迎。

Indah度假村、Tropicana城市购物广场、

立据点，吸引国外大量人才。

丽阳维璟，以及位于柔佛新山丽阳金海

据官方资料显示，“我的第二家园”

马来西亚受中国投资者追捧的重要

移民计划开放给所有马来西亚政府所承认

Residences丽阳豪庭

原因是优惠的税收政策。无论是购房、养

的国家、地区的公民和居民，包括其21

等，并且在兰卡威、柔佛新山等地拥有多

房，还是转售，涉及到的税费也相对较

岁以下的未婚子女、外国护照持有人，以

个土地项目。为了给中国市场提供更好的

低，这决定了投资者每年的净收益。同

及马来西亚籍的外国配偶，获得长期居留

湾和吉隆坡的The

方面，在马来西亚可以申请50%-70%的

海外投资“黑马” 马来西亚吸引中国投资者

China Economic Review | December 2015

海外地产

马来西亚的准证，即十年多次往返入境签

车前往项目位置的交通方便快捷。丽阳机

证，可续签，对50万令吉以上产权没有限

构相关负责人表示，兰卡威珍南海滨地块

制，允许投资和经营生意。一般情况下，

位置极佳，是旅游休闲度假的理想地点。

申请三个月就可获得批准信。

地块可以全部出售，也可以和优质的投资

成功申请者不仅可以随意在马来西

者合作共同开发。丽阳机构深耕马来西亚

亚居留，免税购买或携带一辆汽车到马来

房地产市场二十多年，不仅是马来西亚国

西亚，还可享受3%-3.5%的定期存款利

内排名前五的开发商，更是度假风格家居

率，以及定存利息可免税等一系列优惠政

概念的领导者，具有丰富的开发经验。

策。

远离城市喧嚣，面向大海，一把躺椅，一本书，静谧而美好。这可能是每个

高性价比选择 250万元起住吉隆坡“富人区”

都市人可望而不可即的梦想，或许能在兰卡威寻得。

作为马来西亚的首都，吉隆坡向来是

218 Macalister 优雅复兴槟城转身时尚新住区

房地产投资者偏爱的热土。数据显示，吉隆坡市中心一带的房地产价格，在过去三年内已见证了平均资产30%左右的增值。丽阳机构的最新项目—The Residences丽阳豪庭位于吉隆坡市中心，各国

如果吉隆坡之于马来西亚犹如北上广元/平方米，并且每套单位还附送车位。要

之于中国，那么，槟城就好比厦门，椰林

知道，这片区域在吉隆坡可谓寸土寸金。

树影，水清沙幼。此外，槟城首府乔治市

大使馆集聚的著名的“安邦路”上，比邻

丽阳机构相关负责人介绍，The

于2008年7月7日与马六甲正式登入联合国

著名地标建筑国油双子塔，两者直线距离

Residences丽阳豪庭仅开放353套房源，

教科文组织之世界文化遗产清单中，是旅

仅150米，该区域就如同上海的静安区、

主打使用面积66平方米的小户型，属永

游热点之一。

北京的朝阳区，是马来西亚有名的商业区

久产权，一套总价人民币250万元起。其

丽阳218Macalister坐落于滨城市

与富人区，各大跨国企业均在周边的高级

中，限量41间包租单元，包租两年。由于

中心，同时可以远眺海景，是槟城为数不

写字楼里设立办公地点，因此也被称为

优越的地理位置及合理的价格，该项目推

多的综合性项目，不仅有服务式公寓、套

“黄金三角洲”。The

Residences丽阳

出不久就受到极大关注，目前已经卖掉一

房、商场及酒店，还有SOHO办公式房

豪庭占地1.28英亩，共55层高，25层以下

半。马来西亚正处在黄金十年阶段，吉隆

型，适合创业人士办公，是大型现代化品

是150间W酒店，25层及以上是353间住

坡房价处于稳定上升期，潜力巨大。

质生活社区，距离槟城闻名的集市及光大

宅公寓，采用和W酒店同等品质的全装修标准和服务。还记得周杰伦“世纪婚礼”的酒店选

大厦（KOMTAR）均为步行可达。该项

风情万种兰卡威珍南海滨地块抛出“橄榄枝”

目由两座33层高的时尚发展项目，分别为 T座和M座，其中T座有可供出售的住宅。

址吗？没错，就是W酒店。这里还是腾讯

热爱旅行的人对马来半岛北边的兰

与国内商住综合体不同的是，丽

与京东合作发布会的举办地。此外，全球

卡威一定不会陌生。兰卡威，一个风景醉

阳218 Macalister在售住宅全部为永久

酒店巨擘—希尔顿集团千金也常常下榻

人而久负盛名的度假胜地，由99个小岛

产权，总共299间，均价人民币19000

W酒店。W酒店是喜达屋酒店管理集团的

组成。岛上有景色怡人的稻田及丛林密布

元/平，单套面积在69-121平方米，总价

奢华时尚超五星级酒店品牌，全球的W酒

的山丘，依偎着蔚蓝的安达曼海（Anda-

在人民币150-250万元之间。该项目一上

店选址都非常挑剔，非在当地城市的心脏

man Sea），由此显得风情万种，被赞誉

市就深受欢迎，目前已卖掉70%。

位置不可。因此，吉隆坡W酒店也毫无例

为“吉打州宝石”。兰卡威曾荣膺“2014

外的落在双子塔旁的CBD核心位置。

年亚洲十大最佳岛屿”，并于2007年被联

地段决定房价的升值空间。目前，中国一线城市如北京、上海，市中心新房价

合国教科文组织（UNESCO）授予世界地质公园的杰出标章。

格早已冲破10万元/平。The Residences

丽阳机构在兰卡威珍南海滩拥有一幅

丽阳豪庭坐拥吉隆坡黄金位置，靠近地铁

地块，面积约28692.2平方米，可用于开

和轻轨线，周边购物商场、跨国集团办公

发商业和住宅，永久产权。该地块拥有私

楼、银行、各国大使馆及休闲娱乐中心等

人沙滩，面向珍南海滨，附近还有商场、

均在一步之遥，其价格则在人民币36000

酒店和海底世界，从浮罗交怡国际机场开

丽阳机构成立于1979年，以高尔夫球场高档房产起家，自1992年于大马交易所主板上市，是马来西亚发展度假风格家居概念的先驱，同时也是大马前五之一的开发商，在业内已有30多年历史，声誉斐然。在住宅和商业地产开发、度假村经营和房地产投资、土地买卖方面拥有极佳业绩。

China Economic Review | December 2015

话题

上海超越香港高端品牌丰富度亚太第一世邦魏理仕发布《演变中的中国零售业格局系列报告之三奢侈品》

近

年来，海外购物的兴起及中央反贪

体验和增强经营特色将是业主转型的两大

的青睐。世邦魏理仕建议：零售商需要把

腐措施的出台对国内奢侈品行业造

方向。”

中产阶级、女性顾客和年轻顾客等新兴消

成前所未有的挑战。低迷的国内销售业绩迫使奢侈品零售商不得不放缓在华扩张的步伐。有鉴于此，世邦魏理仕特别策划《

费群作为独立群体，研究他们的购物习惯

国内市场京沪占优，不同物业表现分化

和偏好，在门店的选址和设计，以及商品和服务的配置上满足他们的特殊需求，而

演变中的中国零售业格局系列报告之三奢

近两年，面临市场突如其来的挑战，

侈品》，旨在面对挑战，为奢侈品行业未

奢侈品零售商的在华业绩不约而同地出现

由于奢侈品零售商更看重在京沪、

来的改革与发展发掘新兴机遇。

明显的增长放缓，奢侈品牌的拓展策略开

核心商圈、轻高端这几种类型的市场和物

始转变。

业的拓展及维护，此类优质物业的表现相

世邦魏理仕研究部中国区主管、执行

不能简单复制在国外的模式。

董事陈仲伟评论：“海外购物和礼品消费

京沪地区更加突显其核心拓展地位。

比于其他类型物业将更上一层楼。数据显

萎缩对整个奢侈品行业的影响在短期内仍

据2014年末世邦魏理仕研究部对52个国

示，京沪物业租金占优，较区域中心市场

将持续，我们预计，新的高端零售物业在

际高端品牌在亚太地区主要城市的渗透率

租金平均高出25%。

招商环节将面临一定的困难。同时，国内

统计，上海的国际高端品牌丰富度已超越

奢侈品的消费人群结构出现变化，新兴消

香港，排名亚太地区第一，北京和成都分

费群更加注重个性化、体验化，奢侈品销

列第七和第九位。另一方面，具有全市覆

售渠道也日趋多元化。以上因素直接推动

盖力的核心商圈成为奢侈品零售商的首

过去两年，奢侈品实体专卖店迎来的

奢侈品实体专卖店的转型和升级，展示、

选。2012年至2014年间，核心商圈净新

升级热潮。其中一线奢侈品牌800平方米

体验和服务的功能日益突出，但实体店在

增门店数量占总增量的80.8%。

以上门店占比从2012年的18.1%上升到

实体店核心地位不动摇，业态升级体验为王

全渠道中的核心地位不会改变。与此同

此外，随着中产阶级取代高净值人群

2014年的22.2%，而以往在轻奢品牌中不

时，实体店功能定位的转型亦推动高端零

成为奢侈品消费主力军，客流和品位兼具

占主流的200平方米以上的门店占比也从

售物业的转型，我们预期改善消费者购物

的轻高端零售物业日益得到奢侈品零售商

2012年的28.6%上升至2014年的36.0%。取决于实体专卖店在商品展示、消费体验

八大城市对比：奢侈品专卖店数、高端零售物业存量、常住人口、私人汽车保有量、千万富翁数量（北京=100，截至2014年底）

120

渠道的核心作用难以动摇，并且在展示更丰富的商品种类、承载更大的客流和注

100

入多元化的体验等方面承担日益重要的

角色。

实体店功能定位的转型亦推动高

端零售物业的转型，30.4%的业主在过去两年大规模调整品牌以维持品牌新鲜

20 0

度；23.9%的业主大规模重新装修，改良奢侈品专卖店数高端零售物业存量北京

上海

广州

常住人口深圳

数据来源：世邦魏理仕研究部，国家统计局，胡润财富报告

和顾客服务上不可替代的优势，其在销售

China Economic Review | December 2015

私人汽车保有量成都

杭州

室内格局和环境；完善顾客消费体验也是

千万富翁数量沈阳

武汉

业主转型的重要方向。这些措施都帮助业主赢得可观的财务回报。而未作改变的项目则多数面临经营困境。

话题

应对挑战，缩小国内外渠道价差可自救国内倡廉反腐运动的推行，使得购物

非市场缺乏需求，一旦国内外价格差距缩

一及进口商品关税的下调这三大原因将导

小到一定范围，中国消费者在本土专卖店

致代购渠道在价格上的优势难以为继。但

购买商品的需求将会得到释放。

一些善于在服务上创新的代购方或将得到

卡、礼品卡等变相消费形式被限制发送，对高端百货业态乃至整体奢侈品销售在短

发展契机，并有机会蜕变成专业的奢侈品

海外代购，价格优势难以为继

买手。

期内造成了一定的负面影响。但与此同

随着新兴消费群崛起，商业模式和

时，也促进了中产阶级取代高净值人群成

科技快速创新迎来“新常态”，奢侈品购

为奢侈品消费的主力军。面对价格敏感度

买渠道也日趋多元化。其中，海外代购大

较高，更精明的中产阶级消费者，要把他

军正在成为中国零售业态不容忽视的新兴

州洛杉矶，是财富500强和标准普尔

们留在国内实体门店，增加他们的购买频

力量。

500强企业，为全球最大的商业地产服

世邦魏理仕（纽约证券交易所代号：CBG）总部位于美国加利福尼亚

率，奢侈品零售商就必须缩小国内外门店

低价是消费者选择海外代购渠道的最

务和投资公司(按2014年的营业额计算)

的价格差异，以推动庞大的中国本土市场

重要原因，通常，同一件商品代购价格比

。公司拥有员工超过70,000名（不含

的长期开发。

直接在国内实体专卖店购买要优惠20%以

联营公司），通过全球400多家办事处（不含联营公司）为地产业主、投资者

部分奢侈品零售商已经启动价格调

上。随着代购渠道规模的形成，其避税模

整。2015年伊始，国内市场掀起一拨奢侈

式逐渐引起国家政府的关注，层出不穷的

品降价的热潮。降价策略推出后引起市场

售后服务缺失和渠道冲突也成为奢侈品零

设施及项目管理、按揭融资、评估与估

强烈反响，多地门店出现排队抢购，货品

售商的重大隐忧。

值、开发服务、投资管理、研究与策略

售罄，甚至零售商被迫关店限流的情况。

世邦魏理仕认为：海外代购渠道的

世邦魏理仕认为，中国内地市场的萎靡并

规范化、奢侈品牌对商品全球定价的统

及承租者提供服务，具体包括：物业租售的战略顾问及实施、企业服务、物业/

顾问等。欢迎浏览公司网址www.cbre. com。

China Economic Review | December 2015

话题

二胎政策下的中国婴幼儿快消品行业 10月底，一个消息刷爆了年轻父母的朋友圈——党的十八届五中全会宣布全面放开二胎政策。要二胎，生二娃，养二孩各种热议话题迅速占领媒体头条。尼尔森市场研究分析二胎政策下的婴幼儿快销品行业动向。

18% 1030亿婴幼儿快消品行业在中国保持18%增长在过去一年销售额接近 1030亿人民币

China Economic Review | December 2015

根

据尼尔森监测数据，中国婴幼儿快

查。在中国，生育政策松化、城市化进程

消品行业在过去一年保持高两位

加速、对国家的强信心都促使消费者采取

数增长（18%），销售额接近1030亿人

一种更便利的生活方式，这使得婴儿奶粉

民币，婴儿食品、护理用品品类都呈现了

和婴儿食品更受欢迎。

双位数的增长，分别达到15%和23%，远

超过三分之一的中国受访者表示

远高于整体快速消费品的销售额增长率。

当他们选择某一婴儿食品时，丰富的营

政策鼓励加上自然出生率，中国有望再次

养（36%）、安全的原料以及加工方式

迎来婴儿潮。而随着新晋父母群体被85年

（43%）是十分重要的考虑因素，分别排

~90年占据，高消费意愿和升级需求催生

在重要性的第二和第三位。而可信赖的品

婴幼儿消费市场迎来黄金期。

牌以45%的得票率排在所有考虑因素的第

为了更好地理解婴幼儿快消品

一位。有机或纯天然食品同样是一个十分

行业中产品的市场趋势以及消费者行

重要的考虑因素，尤其在亚太地区，31%

为，尼尔森对来自包括中国在内的60个国

的受访者选择了这一选项。相比于非洲或

家的婴幼儿快消产品消费者进行了线上调

中东、拉丁美洲和北美地区，分别仅有

话题

52% 中国消费者婴幼儿食品采购不在意价格因素

78% 中国消费者对知名品牌有更强的信任

67% 44%

37%

27%

中国消费者线上购买产品热度

26%、20%和18%的受访者表示有机食品

其他国家消费者相比，同样对知名品牌

服装（37%）。三分之二的中国受访消费

是其在决定购买婴儿食品时的一个重要考

（78%）有着更强的信任。

者表示他们在线上购买过尿布，而27%的

虑因素。

至于品牌忠诚度，73%的受访中国消

受访者在线上购买过婴儿食品。

“消费者的健康意识逐渐增强并寻求

费者曾经更换过婴儿食品品牌的，并且来

亚太地区始终引领着线上购物行为，

天然的、少加工的食品。对于婴儿食品，

自家人和朋友的良好反馈是导致他们更换

尤其是对于尿布和婴儿食品。在这一地区

消费者的这一期待更甚”尼尔森全球专业

品牌最重要的原因（52%）。与其他亚洲

中31%的受访者表示他们曾经线上购买过

服务总监Liz Buchanan表示，“越来越

国家消费者相比，中国消费者对尿布品牌

尿布，四分之一的受访者在线购买过婴儿

多的父母正寻求能够保证他们孩子健康生

的忠诚度略高一筹。仅有63%的中国受访

食品。在亚洲范围内，中国大陆、香港和

活的食品，就算为此多花一点钱。我们期

者表示他们曾经更换过尿布品牌。相比之

韩国引领着在线购物的潮流。中国的电子

待着这一细分市场能够随着越来越多的父

下，当被问及是否更换过尿布品牌时，日

商务正经历着快速增长。

母对于高价产品消费能力的提升而继续

本、越南和泰国中消费者更换品牌的比例

成长。

分别高达88%、87%、83%。

“电子商务在亚洲的影响力受多个因素驱动” Buchanan说道，”基础设施提

在出生率较低且婴幼儿快消品市场接

相较于线上消费，中国消费者更倾向

升、日渐普及的智能手机以及互联网渗透

近饱和的发达国家市场，婴幼儿快消品的

于在实体店购买婴幼儿用品。但这一趋势

为市场带来了更多的潜在线上购物者，尤

增长主要来源于创新和产品升级。在发展

正随着越来越多的消费者转移至线上渠道

其在农村地区。同样的，线上商品的类别

中国家，创新仍旧是重要因素，但对婴幼

而发生改变。电子商务零售商由于实体基

相较于传统渠道也更加丰富，使消费者得

儿快消品日渐增长的需求将会是市场成长

础设施资金投入的减少以及供应环节的减

以进入一个前所未有的商品新世界。”

的最大驱动力。”

少，而得以在价格和便利性上取得优势，

在亚洲，中国婴幼儿快消品消费者

进而参与竞争。线上购物同样为忙碌的父

尼尔森是全球著名的市场调研公

进行婴儿食品和尿布采购时，分别有52%

母提供了一个非常具有吸引力的主张——

司，1923年由现代市场研究行业的奠

和50%的消费者表示他们并不在意价格

无论何时何地随心所欲进行购物，并享受

基人之一的阿瑟.查尔斯.尼尔森先生创

因素。相比之下，只有36%的印度受访

免费送货上门服务带来的便利性。

立，总部位于美国纽约。其主要客户是

者、36%的日本受访者和21%的澳大利

中国消费者这在线上购买哪些婴幼儿

快速消费品的零售商和制造商。对于

亚受访者表示他们在购买心仪品牌的婴儿

产品？中国消费者的调查结果显示，他们

全球市场，同时也服务于汽车业、金融

食品时不考虑价格。中国消费者与亚太

最有可能购买婴幼儿玩具（44%）和婴儿

价格优势渠道发展

业、电信业和其他消费品集中行业。

便携性婴幼儿用品线上购买 China Economic Review | December 2015

话题

投资中国消费热潮从铁路客运到人们外出旅游的路程长短，从航空旅行到快递服务和用电，中国的服务业正处于健康状态。英国《金融时报》纳奥米 • 罗夫尼克文。布的数据显示，第三季度中国经济

公

ciation of America)数据显示，去年中国

富达(Fidelity)投资总监汤姆 • 史蒂文

产出同比增长6.9%，这是自全球

的电影票房收入达到48亿美元。中国政府

森(Tom Stevenson)称，可以看看受益于

金融危机以来最缓慢的增长。但是，在低

也在大力支持休闲性消费，因为这有助于

中国旅游发展的日本企业，因为日本的公

迷的数字背后，中国的消费者支出日益增

中国经济再平衡，减少对投资的依赖。

司治理及会计标准高于亚洲其他国家。受

长，就业市场看起来很健康（见下列两个

但由于种种原因，在中国，从一家企

日元贬值的吸引，中国游客蜂拥前往日本

图表），这使得中国经济中的某些行业具

业乃至整个产业行业都有可能发生不可预

购买他们一般倾向于在海外购买的日常用

有潜在投资吸引力。

估的危机，因此购买中国公司的股票是一

品。日本花王集团(Kao Corporation)是在

项高风险投资。

中国大受欢迎的尿片品牌妙而舒(Merries)

目前，尽管刺激性投资已经放缓，中国的零售商、旅行和旅游组织以及客运公

国美电器(Gome)就是一个实例。这

的生产商，该集团眼下正是西方资产管理

司这类服务业仍然运行良好。第三季度，

家电器零售商由曾经是中国首富的黄光裕

公司的宠儿。然而，花王股票的预期市盈

服务业产值同比增长8.6%，增速较上半年

创立，而他于2010年因内幕交易和贿赂而

率达到32倍，这也反映出市场热情。

的8.4%有所加快。

被判有期徒刑14年。该公司如今仍然运行

许多基金管理公司都很看重消费领

良好，表面上看来是一个很好的消费增长

域。不过，很多国际专业投资者在中国遭

“中国经济毫无疑问正在向消费转 Economics)的

故事，因为越来越多的中国家庭购买洗衣

遇惨败。由富达的安东尼 • 波顿(Anthony

分析师朱利安 • 埃文斯-普里查德(Julian

机和冰箱。但是，自从7月，国美从狱中的

Bolton)在中国管理的一只基金，表现逊于

Evans-Pritchard)称，“根据我们监测

黄光裕手中购买了部分资产后，股价一天

投资者预期，而波顿在英国被认为是选股

的许多指标：从铁路客运到人们外出旅游

之内暴跌了15%——据分析师表示，收购

大师。两年前退休时，他承认对中国市场

的路程长短，从航空旅行到快递服务和用

价格过高。

很多事情都想错了。

变，”凯投宏观(Capital

电，中国的服务业正处于健康状态。”

谨慎的投资者可以在不用实际投资

现在有一些泛亚洲基金的经理正在

与传统的福利国家不同，中国长久以

中国股票的情况下享受中国增长带来的收

利用中国消费热潮，却对高风险的中国公

来一直是储蓄国。但中国消费者在非必需

益。在固定资产投资推动中国经济两位数

司持股不多。杜乐奇(Angus

商品和服务上的支出一直处于上升态势。

增长的时代，全球开采铜、铁矿石等资源

是其中一位，他管理着First State Asia

据美国电影协会(Motion Picture Asso-

的矿商都是热门的投资选择。

Pacific Leaders基金。他持有股份第二多的企业是台积电(Taiwan

China’s economic growth has slowed sharply... Quarterly GDP growth year-on-year 16

Semiconduc-

tor Manufacturing Corp)。台积电是助力中国智能手机行业发展的芯片的供应商

14 12

巨头。杜乐奇持股第三多的是香港的长江

和记实业(CK Hutchison Holdings)。长

8 6

2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Bloomberg/Naomi Rovnick. FT

江和记在香港拥有众多零售商，从药店屈 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

臣氏(Watsons)到电器连锁商丰泽(Fortress)，这些零售商很受中国内地来港购

...Although the job market appears healthy

物者的青睐。

Ratio of job vacancies to job applicants 1.15 1.10

杜乐奇的基金收取4%的高额入场

1.05

费，之后收取1.6%的年费。在过去12个

1.00

月中，该基金的回报率为-6.8%。然而，

0.95

金融数据提供商TrustNet指出，依据“很

0.90 0.85 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Chinese Ministry of Human Resources/Bloomberg/Naomi Rovnick, FT

Tulloch)就

China Economic Review | December 2015

2013

2014

2015

长一段时间的记录”，杜乐奇“经常”跑赢同行。

LOOKING AT CHINA

Cold We’re probably warmer than we used to be, but that may not be good for the economy By Graham Earnshaw

hate cold weather. I always have. I grew up in the north of England, which is certainly not a warm environment, but for whatever reason I can handle temperatures up to any number you like, I enjoy sweating and being almost suffocated by steaming humidity and you won’t hear me complain. So when winter comes around, it is always something of a trial. If what they say about global warming is true, and I believe it is, then the planet is getting warmer and over time winters should become less severe, even in freezing parts of China. I look forward eagerly to the day when this becomes a reality. A few million people may lose their homes on seashores around the world, but, hey, I will not have to wear long underwear. But cold today, compared to when I was growing up, and even say twenty or thirty years ago, is much less intense, or at least the perception of it seems less intense. And I don’t think that it is global warming that is causing the change in my perception. Many people including myself are subject less to extreme cold than was true in the past. Technology is largely responsible for this. First of all, winter clothing is dramatically warmer, and much lighter for the same level of cold protection. The warmest clothes I could find in China in 1970s was a thick padded PLA greatcoat which weighed a ton. Those coats were certainly warm, but they also let in icy stabs through holes and corners. I guess

China Economic Review | December 2015

that served the purpose of keeping me awake as I stood freezing in front of walls reading big character posters, but I would preferred to be really warm. Nowadays, light winter jackets seem to provide exactly the same level of protection from the cold without the bulk. They lack that sense of cultural coolness which the PLA great codes used to provide, but that’s another story. Cars and public transport also seem to have much more effective heating systems these days. The technology of private sedan cars particularly seems to have improved by huge leaps and bounds over the decades. I remember freezing in cars when I was young, and I don’t have that same sense of being unbelievably cold while sitting in a car anymore. The heating systems in today’s cars seem to warm up the space much faster, and I’m grateful to the engineers who have managed to make this possible.

Technology is also changing habits, which means that many people, I guess including myself, go out less than we used to into the depths of winter. We now stay indoors more, shop at home where it is warm, and go out less to supermarkets or department stores to buy things. We keep warmer that way, and it provides some employment opportunities for the many motorbike couriers. The same holds true for eating and entertainment. Ordering food for home delivery would never have occurred to us two or three decades ago but is now a regular part of the lives of millions. And as for entertainment, if you wanted to see a movie way back when, you had to go out into the cold and go to the cinema, which was probably also freezing. Now, we can sit wherever we like, in the warmth, and watch movies or read wechat posts at our leisure without stirring a leg muscle. The impact of these technology changes on the retail sector of the economy is obvious for all to see. There seem to be a growing number are closed retail spaces as online shopping and other trends take hold. One of my favorite restaurants with outdoor seating is no longer operating--they closed just before the winter season began, clearly seeing the opportunity to close before revenues plummeted. Not to worry, spring will be with us again before too long. But maybe not that restaurant.

看中国

冬日思考如今人们的保暖措施要大大优于以往，但或许从经济角度来看并非好事文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

对

于寒冷的天气，我向来深恶痛绝。

车再也不会令其乘坐者体会到当时那样令

响。网上购物的盛行令越来越多的商家选

我出生在英格兰北部，乍听之下

人难以置信的寒冷，因为车内的空调系统

择关闭线下实体店，我时常光顾的一家餐

便知道那里绝非什么温暖的地方。在寒冷

拥有了更快的供暖功能，这也要归功于汽

厅也在冬季来临之前关闭了室外就餐区，

的环境中长大，不知出于什么原因，令我

车工程师们的努力。

以免影响盈利。

拥有了绝佳的耐热能力，无论温度高达多

科技改变的还有生活习惯。我相信

常言道，冬天到了，春天还会远吗？

少，无论如何汗流浃背，甚至处在潮湿闷

如今越来越少的人会选择暴露在寒冬的室

但零售业的春天还会否复苏，便不得而

热、难以喘息的环境中，我都不会对此多

外，我们逐渐减少外出前往超市或百货商

知了。

有抱怨。反之，每当寒冷的冬天来临，于

店购物的频率而选择在家中网购，因此对

我而言都是个艰难的考验。

于快递行业发达的国家，相应创造了许多

因此，每当人们谈起全球气候变暖，

就业机会。

地球温度升高，随着时间的推移冬天将变

同理在餐饮和娱乐方面也适用。二三

得不再寒冷，即便在中国北方那些严寒地

十年前，并不存在餐饮外卖这回事，但如

带也如是，我都暗暗期待这一天真的能够

今这已经成为数以百万人的生活习惯。在

到来。沿海城市的人们可能会因为全球变

当时，如果你想要看电影，唯一的选择就

暖而失去他们的家园，但至少我不用再在

是跨出家门，顶着寒风前往电影院，如

冬天穿秋衣秋裤。

今，我们可以坐在温暖的家中，看电影

当然这都是玩笑话。如今的冬天，相比我幼时，或者说二、三十年前，已经变得不那么难熬，至少体感上是如此。我并

或者其他娱乐活动，都可信手拈来。上述科技的发展和生活习惯的改变也为零售产业的经济带来了显而易见的影

不认为这是由于全球变暖的缘故，包括我在内的许多人，相比以往，耐寒能力都提升了不少。我认为科技的发展是主要原因。如今，冬天的衣服较之以往更暖更轻薄。在上世纪70年代，我在中国能够找到最保暖的衣服是军大衣，又厚又重，固然保暖，但依旧无法抵御无孔不入的寒风。当时的我身着军大衣，在寒冷的冬日站在中国的街头阅读贴在墙上的大字报，瑟瑟寒风倒是有助于我保持清醒。如今，轻薄的冬装夹克替代了过往厚重的冬衣，提供的却是同样的温暖。尽管不及当时的军大衣具有一丝文化含义上的酷劲，但这毕竟不可同日而语。汽车和公共交通上的供暖系统相比以往也要进步许多，尤其是私家车，在几十年间经历了科技的飞跃。犹记得我年轻时坐在汽车中瑟瑟发抖的样子，而如今的汽

晏格文晏格文先生是一位资深媒体人士、书籍作家、翻译家、出版人、和音乐家在中国香港和内地已经生活了近30年。晏格文先生以其独特的视角和对中国的深深的敬意，从第一次造访大陆的1978年以来，一直不断地对中国历史、语言、经济和传统文化进行深度探究与传播。 1973年晏格文先生从英国移居香港，担任南华早报记者和编辑。1976年，他加入了英国著名新闻集团路透社。之后担任路透社北京分社社长（19851987年），东京首席记者（1987-1989），并于1990-1995年担任路透社亚洲主编。1996年，他在香港和上海成立了中媒集团。2008年至2010年，兼任北京《新华财经》的责任主编。晏格文先生陆续出版了多部著作，包括《老上海记》和《步行中国》等。他翻译的金庸武侠小说《书剑恩仇录》由牛津大学出版社于2004年出版。他的高知名度的《晏子书斋》则出版与收录了近百本100多年前的外国人在中国的、关于中国历史人文与自身经历的书籍。

China Economic Review | December 2015

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China Economic Review | December 2015

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Chaoyang, Beijing

Road

Shanghai, 200042

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

Tel: +86 10 6465 3388

Leasing Enquiries:

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

Hi-Tech Park

Fax: +86 10 6410 4080

Tel (office): +86 21 6037 8186

leasing@parkview-sh.com

Shanghai 201303

Kempinski Hotel Wuxi

Tel (retail): +86 21 6037 8198

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

www.kempinski.com/wuxi 18 Yonghe Road, Nanchang

Leasing@sandhill.cn

Real Estate/Commercial Real Estate/HOPSCA

Wuxi, Jiangsu

Jing An Kerry Centre

Tel: +86 510 8108 8888

www.jingankerrycentre.com

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

Fax: +86 510 8108 8000

Unit 901, 9F, Tower 1

Development Co., Ltd

info.wuxi@kempinski.com

Jing An Kerry Centre

www.antinganting.com.cn

Grand Hyatt Shanghai

1515 Nanjing Road West

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

www.shanghai.grand.hyatt.com

Shanghai

Lanson Place Central Park

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

Jin Mao Tower, 88 Century

China 200040

Residences

Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

China Economic Review | December 2015

LISTING Serviced Offices

No. 155, Tianjin Road,

Lujiazui

CCIG Int’l Plaza Lv 17 [New]

Huangpu District

BEA Finance Tower

17/F, Building A, CCIG Int’l Plaza,

Carlton Building [New]

15/F, BEA Finance Tower, No.66

No.331 North Caoxi Road,

11/F, Carlton Building, No. 21

Hua Yuan Shi Qiao Road, Pudong,

Xuhui District

Huanghe Road, Huangpu District

Lujiazui

Grand Gateway [New]

Shui On Plaza

Plaza 66

48/F, Grand Gateway, No.1

12/F, Shui On Plaza, No.333

15/F, Tower 2, Plaza 66, No.1266

Hongqiao Road, Xuhui District

Middle Huaihai Road,

West Nanjing Road,

Shanghai Mart Hongqiao

Huangpu District

Jing’an District

2/F, ShanghaiMart, No.2299 West

One Corporate Avenue

Eco City

Yan’an Road, Changning District

15/F, One Corporate Avenue,

9/F, Eco City, No.1788 West

Maxdo Centre [New]

No.222 Hubin Road,

Nanjing Road, Jing’an District

43/F, Maxdo Centre, No.8 Xingyi

Huangpu District

Shanghai Centre

Road, Changning District

Bund Centre

5/F, West Office Tower Shanghai

Silver Centre

18/F, Bund Centre, No.222 East

Centre, No.1376 West Nanjing

No.1388, North Shaan Xi Road,

Yan’an Road, Huangpu District

Road, Jing’an District

Putuo District

Raffles City

Garden Square [New]

Central Towers

51/F, Raffles City, No.268 Middle

11/F, Garden Square, No.968

11F, Tower B, Central Towers,

Regus Serviced Office

Xizang Road, Huangpu District

West Beijing Road,

No.567 Lan Gao Road,

• Flexible office leases from 1

The Headquarters

Jing’an District

Putuo District

25/F, The Headquarters Building,

Nanjing West Road

Zhabei Centro

No.168 Middle Xizang Road,

18/F, Shanghai Oriental Centre,

22/F, Zhabei Centro, No.568

Huangpu District

No.699 West Nanjing Road,

Hengfeng Road, Zhabei District

Hong Kong Plaza

Jing’an District

One Prime

CMY

day to 1 year • Quick and easy to set up for 1-200 people • Prices from RMB180 per

26/F, Hong Kong Plaza, No.283

Yueda 889

25/F, One Prime, No.360 Wu Jin

• Find more on Regus.cn

Middle Huai Hai Road,

8/F, Yueda 889, No.1111

Road, Hongkou District

• Tel: 400 120 1207

Huangpu District

Changshou Road, Jing’an District

Harbour One

SHANGHAI (43 LOCATIONS)

Silver Court

The Tower

16/F, Harbour One, No.1080

Cloud 9 [New]

3/F, Silver Court Office Tower,

14/F, Jinjiang Xiangyang Tower,

Dong Da Ming Road,

24/F, Cloud 9 International

No.85 Taoyuan Road,

No.993 West Nanjing Road,

Hongkou District

Plaza, No.1018 Changning Road,

Huangpu District

Jing’an District

Baoland Plaza [New]

Changning District

Shanghai Tower [Coming Soon]

Henderson 688 [New]

16/F, Tower B, Baoland Square,

Longemont Yes Tower [New]

29/F, Shanghai Tower, Dongtai

16/F, Henderson 688, No.688

No.688 Dalian Road,

8/F, Longemont Yes Tower,

Road, Pudong, Lujiazui

West Nanjing Road,

Yangpu District

No.399 Kaixuan Road,

Jin Mao Tower

Jing’an District

KIC Yangpu

Changning District

31/F, Jin Mao Tower, No.88 Shiji

ICC

9/F, Tower 12, KIC III, No.333

Oriental Financial Centre [New]

Avenue, Pudong, Lujiazui

7/F, One ICC, Shanghai ICC,

Songhu Road, Yangpu District

7/F, Oriental Financial Centre,

21st Century

No.999 Middle Huaihai Road,

The Hub [New]

No.333 Lujiazui Ring Road

6/F, The 21st Century Tower,

Xuhui District

5/F, The Hub, No.29 Suhong

Changxing Building [New]

No.210 Shiji Avenue, Pudong,

CCIG International Plaza

Road, Minhang District

1/F, Changxing Building, Building

Lujiazui

12/F, Building A, CCIG Int’l Plaza,

BEIJING (20 LOCATIONS)

1, No.888 Bibo Road, Pudong

Aurora Plaza

No.331 North Caoxi Road,

Lei Shing Hong Plaza [New]

Central Plaza [New]

11/F, Aurora Plaza, No.99

Xuhui District

5/F, Tower C, Lei Shing Hong

2/F, Central Plaza, No.227 North

Fucheng Road, Pudong, Lujiazui

Huaihai Plaza [New]

Plaza, No.8 Wangjing Street,

Huangpi Road, Huangpu District

Standard Chartered Lujiazui

28/F, Huaihai Plaza, No.1045

Chaoyang District

Henderson 155 [New]

5/F, Standard Chartered Tower,

Middle Huihai Road,

Sun Dong An Plaza [New]

20/F, Henderson Metropolitan,

No.201 Shiji Avenue, Pudong,

Xuhui District

7/F, Office Tower 2, Sun Dong

month

China Economic Review | December 2015

LISTING An Plaza, No.138 Wangfujing,

Chaoyangmenwai Street,

25/F, City Development Plaza,

Road Shekou District

Avenue, Dongcheng District

Chaoyang District

No.189 West Ti Yu Road,

Panglin Plaza

Zhongyu Mansion [New]

China Life - West

Tianhe District

35/F, Panglin Plaza No.2002

6/F, Zhongyu Mansion, No.6

West, 5/F, China Life Tower,

Tianhe Center Plaza

Jiabin Road Luohu District

North Workers Stadium Road,

No.16 Chaoyangmenwai Street,

Tower A, 23/F, Center Plaza,

DALIAN (2 LOCATIONS)

Chaoyang District

No.161 West Linhe Road,

World Trade Center

Diplomatic [New]

IFC

Tianhe District

12/F, World Trade Center No.25

17/F, Tower E, Liangmaqiao,

10/F, IFC East Tower, No.8

G.T.Land Plaza

Tongxing Street

Diplomatic Office Building, 3rd

Jianguomenwai Street,

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1, G.T,

Zhongshan District

Embassy District, Chaoyang

Chaoyang District

Land Plaza, No.85 Huacheng,

Xiwang Tower

District

Prosper Center

Avenue, Tianhe District

9/F, Xiwang Tower No.136

Kerry Centre - South Tower

6/F, Tower 2, Prosper Center,

Tianhe Teem Tower

Zhongshan Road

[New]

No.5 Guang Hua Road,

13/F, Teem Tower, No.208

Zhongshan District

10/F, South Tower, Kerry Centre,

Chaoyang District

Tianhe Road, Tianhe District

QINGDAO

No.1 Guanghua Road,

Financial St. Excel Centre

Guangdong International

China Overseas Building

Chaoyang District

12/F, Financial Street Excel,

Building

7/F, China Overseas Building

Landgent Building [Coming

Centre, No.6 Wudinghou Street,

7/F, Main Tower, Guangdong Int’l

No.76 Yanji Road, Shibei District

Soon]

Xicheng District

Building, No.339 East Huanshi

SHENYANG

5/F, Block A, Landgent Center,

NCI Centre

Road, Yuexiu District

Fortune Plaza

No.20 East Middle 3rd Ring Road,

15/F, NCI Tower, No.12A

Lai Fung Tower [Coming Soon]

17/F, Fortune Plaza Tower A

Chaoyang District

Jianguomenwai Street,

8/F, Lai Fung Tower, No.761 East

No.61 Beizhan Road

China World Tower 3

Chaoyang District

Dongfeng Road, Yuexiu District

Shenhe District

15/F, China World Tower 3,

Taikang Financial Tower

SHENZHEN (8 LOCATIONS)

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

No.1 Jianguomenwai Street,

23/F, Taikang Financial Tower,

Futian Anlian

Golden Valley Centre

Chaoyang District

No.38 East Third Ring Road,

26/F, Anlian Centre No.4018

11/F, Building 1, Golden Valley

Lufthansa Centre

Chaoyang District

Jintian Road, Futian District

Centre Jinwan Plaza, No.1

C203, Lufthansa Centre, No.50

Zhongguancun Metropolis Tower

A8 Building

Binjiang Avenue, Heping District

Liangmaqiao Road,

7/F, Metropolis Tower, No.2

15/F, A8 Building No.1002

Tianjin Centre

Chaoyang District

Dongsan Street, Zhongguancun

Keyuan Road Tech Zone,

8/F, Tianjin Centre No.219

Kerry Centre

Xi Zone, Haidian District

Nanshan District

Nanjing Road, Heping District

11/F, North Tower, Kerry Centre,

GUANGZHOU (10 LOCATIONS)

Futian NEO

SHIJIAZHUANG

No.1 Guanghua Road,

Guangzhou Fortune Plaza [New]

44/F, NEO Tower A No.6011

Suning Life Square

Chaoyang District

20/F, West Tower, No. 116-118

Shennan Avenue, Futian District

12/F, Suning Life Square No.77

Pacific Century Place

East Tiyu Road, Tianhe District

SCC

Zhongshan Road,

14/F, IBM Tower, No.2A North

Guangzhou China International

7/F, Tower A, SCC Financial

Xinhua District

Workers Stadium Road,

Centre [New]

Centre, Junction of Houhai

ZHENGZHOU

Chaoyang District

14/F, Tower A, No. 33,

Avenue & First Haide Avenue

Kineer IFC

China Central Place

Zhongshan San 3rd Road,

Nanshan District

18/F, Building 4 No.88 East

9/F, Tower 2, China Central

Yuexiu District

New World Centre

Jinshui Road

Place, No.79 Jianguo Road,

The Place [New]

23/F, New World Centre No.6009

Zhengdong New District

Chaoyang District

8/F, The Placec, No.618 Xingang

Yitian Road, Futian District

XI’AN (2 LOCATIONS)

Parkview Green

East Road, Haizhu District

Times Financial Centre

Metropolis

15/F, Office Building A Parkview,

Pearl River Tower

14/F Times Financial Centre No.

11/F, Tower A, Xi’an Chang’an

Green, No.9 Dongdaqiao Road,

21/F, Pearl River Tower, No.15

4001 Shennan Avenue,

Metropolis Centre, No.88 Nan

Chaoyang District

West Zhujiang Road,

Futian District

Guan Zheng Street,

China Life Tower

Tianhe District

New Times Plaza

Beilin District

5/F, China Life Tower, No.16

City Development Plaza

3/F, New Times Plaza No.1 Taizi

Capita Mall Office

China Economic Review | December 2015

LISTING

11/F, Capita Mall No.64 South

Centre

West Avenue SIP

DONGGUAN

Second Ring Road

35/F, HNA Poly Plaza No.235

HANGZHOU (3 LOCATIONS)

TBA Tower

Yanta District

Minsheng Road

Delixi Mansion

46/F, TBA Tower No.11

CHENGDU (5 LOCATIONS)

Yuzhong District

9/F, Building A, Delixi Mansion

Dongguan Avenue

China Resources Building

World Financial Centre

No.28 Xueyuan Road

Dongcheng District

32/F, China Resources Building

19/F, Chongqing WFC No.188

Xihu District

ZHUHAI

No.10 Shuangqing Road

Minzu Road

Euro America Center

Zhuhai WFC

Chenghua District

Yuzhong District

4/F, Euro America Center No.18

12/F, WFC No.1009 Middle

Yandlord Landmark

NANJING (3 LOCATIONS)

Jiaogong Road

Jiuzhou Avenue Jida

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Jinling - Asia Pacific Tower

Xihu District

Xiangzhou District

Building No.1 Section 2, South

8/F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Foreign Economy & Trade

XIAMEN

Renmin Road

Tower No.2 Hanzhong Road

Plaza

International Plaza

Jinjiang District

Gulou District

8/F, Building B, Zhejiang FET

8/F, International Plaza No.8

IFS

Suning Wisdom Valley

No.468 Yan’an Road

Lujiang Road

25/F, Tower 1, IFS No.1 Hongxing

8/F, Building E07 Suning Wisdom

Xiacheng District

Siming District

Road Section 3

Valley No.301 Hanzhongmen

CHANGSHA

KUNMING

Jinjiang District

Avenue

Wall Street

Master

Square One

Gulou District

17/F, Wall Street Centre No.288

16/F, East Tower

11/F, Square One No.18 Dongyu

Kingsley

Furong Middle Road Section One,

Dongfangshouzuo No.1

Street

13/F, Kingsley Int’l Mansion

Kaifu District

Chongren Street Jinbi Road

Jinjiang District

No.169 Hanzhong Road

NANCHANG

Wuhua District

Times Plaza

Qinhuai District

Yangyang Spring

26/F, Times Plaza No.2 Zongfu

NINGBO (2 LOCATIONS)

15/F, Tower 1, Yangyang Spring

Road

China Life

Investment Building No.66

Jinjiang District

18/F, China Life Tower No.777

EastYangming Road

WUHAN (3 LOCATIONS)

Lingqiao Road

Donghu District

Wuhan Tiandi

Haishu District

FUZHOU

8/F, Corporate Centre 5 No.1628

Raffles City

Rongdu Int’l Building

Zhong Shan Avenue

8/F, Raffles City No.99 South

10/F, Rongdu Int’l Building,

Jiang’an District

Daqing Road

Intersection of Wusi Road &

Hua’s IFC

Jiangbei District

Qingcheng Road

10/F, Hua’s IFC No.193 Hong

WUXI (2 LOCATIONS)

Gulou District

Kong Road

Hongdou International Plaza

FOSHAN

Jianghan District

25/F, Hongdou Int’l Plaza No.531

Huahui Building

Poly Plaza

Zhongshan Road

15/F, Huahui Building No.46

18/F, Wuhan Poly Plaza No.99

Chong’an District

Zumiao Road

Zhongnan Road

Suning Life Square

Chancheng District

Wuchang District

11/F, North Tower Suning Life

CHONGQING (4 LOCATIONS)

Square No.109 Middle Renmin

PICC

Road

To have your company featured in these pages, please contact our

10/F PICC Building, Block-D

Chong’an District

representatives at:

Jiangbei District

SUZHOU (2 LOCATIONS)

如想刊登贵公司信息，敬请联系如下负责人：

Yangtze River International

Jinghope Plaza

邮件 Email: marketing@sinomedia.net

Plaza

11/F, Tower 2, Jinghope Plaza

电话 Tel: +86 21 53859061

33/F, 22 Nanbin Road

No.88 Hua Chi Street SIP

2205, Shanghai Plaza, No.138 Huaihaizhong Rd, Shanghai, China, 200021

Nan’an District

Nison Plaza

中国上海市淮海中路138号上海广场2205 邮编：200021

HNA & Poly International

10/F, Nison Plaza No.205 Suzhou

China Economic Review | December 2015

CMY

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