CER June 2013

JUNE 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 6 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

转型与突围 重构与突破 徒步穿越中国

The Transition Puzzle

2013年6月刊

EDITOR'S NOTE | 编者的话 JUNE 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 6 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2013年6月刊

本

期封面故事聚焦中国企业的转型与升级。中国企业特别是制造 业的整体运营成本连续攀升；发展中经济体在不断崛起，成熟

转型与突围

的制造业面临重新布局；经济大环境的不确定因素在持续增加，信息化

重构与突破 徒步穿越中国

时代竞争加剧，产品同质化现象日趋严重。 信息技术的爆发式成长推动着传统行业的升级换代。云时代基于 云计算机技术，源于以社交为主的信息经济逐步转向大数据和移动互联 网时代。云管理模式充分运用了社交技术、移动科技、云计算等多种新 技术，而技术的突破可能会引发全面的变革，中国企业能否抓住云管理 的契机成功转型？ 上海WTO事务咨询中心总裁王新奎教授将云时代的变革总结为

The Transition Puzzle

“智能制造和数字制造相结合的新产业革命”。国际贸易和投资规则因 这一变革而调整和重构。云计算提供了以人为核心的巨大平台，人人都 可以在这一平台上创新。而企业家必须面对的挑战是能否再度进入彼 得· 德鲁克所倡导的“企业家状态”。

Executive Editor 主编 Deputy Executive Editor 副主编 Editor-at-large 出版人 Associate Editors 编辑

Liu Chen Philip Liu Graham Earnshaw Brenda Yang, Deng Dan

China Economic Review, English Editor 编辑 Jake Spring Staff Writer 撰稿人 Don Weinland Intern 助理 Sam Reynolds Art Editors 美术编辑 Jason Wong

Sales Director 销售总监 Pierre Zolghadri

Account Managers 销售经理 Allen Xu, Ralph Wang, Lolita Bian, Riikka Koponen

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04

June 2013

招商银行前行长马蔚华指出，云时代必然会对像银行这样的服务 业产生影响，在某种意义上会决定其生存和发展。中国银行业的国际化 程度还很低，当务之急是提升管理。他相信云计算在对银行构成挑战的 同时，必定会带来巨大的发展机遇和光明的前途。

C

hina’s transition grows more transparent by the day as growth slows and forces both Chinese industry and the

economy to mature. China Economic Review focuses in on this massive shift in this issue. First, the magazine turns to manufacturing experts at AlixPartners who offer insight into what will happen when it costs as much to base factories in China as in the US – a fast-approaching tipping point. The issue then progresses to the ever important role that central policy plays in China’s transition and how change is on the way, even if politicians are taking their time. Last, we consider the shifting landscape of technology as firms transition from start-ups to behemoths and crowd the market. The pressure is on all the more for companies like Tencent Holdings to innovate – and surely holds lessons for firms across industries. 版权所有，未经版权所有人明确的书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式或媒介全部或部 分翻印或转载本刊内容。所有内容除特别标明外，均为本刊采编人员完成。文章中提 到的货币除特别说明外均指人民币。 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE CONTENT OF THIS PUBLICATION CANNOT BE REPRODUCED IN PART OR IN WHOLE BY ANY PERSON IN ANY JURISDICTION WITHOUT WRITTEN APPROVAL FROM THE COPYRIGHT HOLDER.

目录 CONTENT

8

30

封面故事 转型与突围

20

新观察

The House View

8 所想即所得

10 In the sweet spot

12 聚焦

Month in Review 14 Newsbriefs

专栏 16 重构与突破 20 生存还是毁灭

44

访谈

48

Column 18 Domestic drama 22 Bad seeds

26 代表成都 对话世界

Report 封面故事 31 云端突击 38 挑战全球化 42 解码微信营销 46 汽车后市场嬗变

48 Bringing down the house 50 Breaking the ice 64 Picking up the tab 66 An oasis of reform

June 2013

05

目录 CONTENT

50

34

Cover story The Transition Puzzle The US will match China on the cost of manufacturing by 2015. Companies in both countries must adapt, write Ivo Naumann and Steve Maurer

55

焦点 挪威

Cover story

52 积极信号

34 The parity puzzle

54 新突破 新愿景

40 Backed into a corner

57 更活跃 更开放

44 The trillion-renminbi question

58 以市场换创新

话题

Spotlight: Norway

64

62 O2O模式：看上去很美

53 Light of the north 55 Renewable relations 57 Hands across the ice

68 陆游眼里的房价

59 Innovate like a Norsk

看中国

Looking at China

70 汉字的魅力

生活·晏子西游记 72 青梅与啤酒

06

June 2013

71 Chinese character magic

70

Travel journal 73 Money advice

新观察

所想即所得 3D打印技术的广泛应用尚需时日

宝大盗用白手套摸着国宝十二生肖

窃

气，最让普通观众惊艳的是消费品和生物

上看，美国目前各种3D打印设备的数量已

的头像，将数据扫描进电脑。与此

医疗产品。不少企业展示了3D打印的人工

占全世界40%。

同时，同伙在机器里瞬间就将一模一样的

骨骼、牙齿等模型，反映出生物医疗领域

继国家工信部官员去年底表态将推

兽首制造出来。这是今年贺岁片《十二生

是3D打印的重要应用方向。西安交通大学

动3D打印产业化后，国家科技部于今年4

肖》里运用到3D打印技术的场景。

正在联合有关医学研究机构研究人工肝脏

月正式宣布将3D打印技术列入国家863计

3D打印是一种以三维模型为基础，

等活性器官再造课题。中国3D打印技术产

划。西北工业大学凝固技术国家重点实验

以粉末为原料，通过逐层堆积来构造物体

业联盟首席顾问颜永年教授预测，用不了

室主任黄卫东教授透露，关于3D打印技术

的技术，业内称之为增材制造（Additive

50年就能打印出所有的人体器官，人确实

的国家性战略正在研究制定中，国内占据

Manufacturing）。与传统制造相比，3D

有可能成为“造物者”。

3D打印技术研究前沿的几所高校也正在

打印不需要冗长的模具开发过程，省去了

美国政府去年宣布建立国家增材制

积极提出各自的建议。卢秉恒建议，对于

繁琐的切削加工，也不占用大面积的场

造创新机构，推动3D打印技术向国家主

3D打印技术需要制定技术发展路线图，规

地，甚至在家中就能轻松完成。

流制造技术发展，这一举措刺激了世界舆

划基础研究、产业化、工程应用的发展路

论。英国《经济学人》给3D打印戴上了

线，从而使其真正实现产业化。

在5月于上海举行的增材制造技术 全球高峰论坛上，被誉为“中国3D打印

“工业革命”的高帽。

卢秉恒表示，由于精度、效率、成本

之父”的中国工程院院士卢秉恒教授表

中国3D打印技术起步不算晚。美国

因素等限制，3D打印技术主要应用在研发

示，3D打印一大特点是“所想即所得”，

始于上世纪80年代中期，而中国发端于上

领域，何时能进入大规模工业应用还无法

只要能在电脑里设计出三维模型，3D打

世纪90年代初中期，当时就有西安交通大

预计。他指出，任何技术都不是万能的，

印机就能实现。可大大缩短新产品开发周

学、华中科技大学和清华大学等高校涉足

单批小量的复杂零部件制造、难变形材料

期，帮助中国企业从制造走向创造。

3D打印领域的研究。但20年后，当前中国

加工、需要快速响应的制造等应该是3D打

5月在上海举行的首届中国国际技术

3D打印的大部分应用仍然集中在军工领域

印技术目前应集中指向的市场部分。

进出口交易会上，3D打印集聚了极高的人

的开发与模具的制造上。而仅从设备数量

美国消费者电子协会年度报告显示， 随着汽车、航空航天、工业和医疗保健等 领域市场需求的增加，3D打印机的社会需 求量将逐年增长，有望从2011年的17亿美 元增长至2017年的50亿美元。目前3D打 印最大的市场主要在消费品和电子领域， 其后是机动车、医疗和牙科领域。 3D打印技术在给人类打开无限想象 空间的同时，也展现了科技“双刃剑”的 另一面。美国制造出世界首支3D打印手枪 后，3D打印技术的负面消息不断。在枪支 受管制的英国，两名记者用从互联网购买 的3D打印机，在不到36小时内，打印出手 枪部件；并通过安检登上欧洲之星列车。 爱因斯坦说过：“科学是一种强有力 的工具。怎样用它，究竟给人带来幸福还 是带来灾难，全取决于人自己，而不取决 于工具。”如何规避一项重大技术的负面

电脑设计三维模型，3D打印机制造产品

08

June 2013

效应，可能是人类永恒的话题。

THE HOUSE VIE W

In the sweet spot April’s inflation figures should cool the government’s urge to play with policy

I

nflation in China has been quite the Goldilocks tale this year. First, inflation was too hot. The consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, hit 3.2% for February, coming close to the government’s 3.5% maximum for the year. Although Chinese New Year always distorts data and precipitated much of the increase, the government still hinted that it would tighten monetary policy.

Then, the numbers were too cool.

The CPI fell to 2.1% in March, which was below analyst expectations. With overall GDP growth slowing in the first quarter, this revived speculation that the central government would feel comfortable enough with the level of inflation to roll out stimulus spending or ramp up loans to drive growth. That money has generally been directed to infrastructure projects or state-owned companies in the past, something that would set back the country’s need to rebalance toward consumption.

Finally, the April CPI is just right.

The 2.4% year-on-year increase isn’t high enough to revive any major effort toward tightening. At the same time, the rise from the previous month may discourage regulators from ramping up stimulus spending. For now, it’s an inflationary sweet spot that calls for little to no policy movement.

The inflation figures were on point.

So much so that analysts are having a trouble deciding which way policy should go. “Some people think this would contribute to tightening, some

10

June 2013

people think it would contribute to loosening. This means the number itself is not directional,” said Ding Shuang, senior economist at Citi Investment Research.

Stand still Economists say there is little ground based on the figures for tightened lending, a move generally taken when regulators seek to rein in inflation.

China’s central bank did take action to drain liquidity just after the inflation data was released, by selling enough three-month bills to take RMB10 billion in cash out of the market. But that shouldn’t be taken as a tightening measure, merely an attempt to “mop up excessive liquidity,” as Ding put it.

The only policy levers that Beijing is likely to pull would be on food prices, which were primarily responsible for the rise in inflation. Beijing could use subsidies or state reserves to reign in the price of pork, according to a note from HSBC Global Research.

While 2.4% remains low, the upward trend in the figure can’t be neglected. Some policymakers would like to spend China to a rebound in GDP, but too much stimulus could boost inflation past a safe level.

A penny saved …

As regulators quibble over month-tomonth adjustment to monetary policy, they should also focus on the benefits of keeping inflation in the range that it has been in for the last year rather than

whether they need to amp up GDP. A low rate of inflation is a much needed ingredient in China’s rebalancing.

Depositors have long lost money on deposits because inflation has been higher than nominal interest rates, which are capped in China, meaning that the real interest rate is negative.

But since April 2012, Chinese have taken at least some real returns from interest on their deposits. Although the rate has fluctuated, inflation has been below the 3.3% interest rate on deposits for about a year.

Some small return on deposits is a big deal for China. Chinese held about US$73 billion in personal deposits in March, according to the People’s Bank of China website.

Therefore, even an annual real interest rate of 0.9% would equate to US$657 million extra that consumers could spend. As the country’s technocrats struggle to muscle the exportdriven economy toward one based on domestic consumption, increases in disposable income are key.

Inflation is expected to rise as the year continues. So returns on deposits will shrink and perhaps even become negative. So the sweet spot the government found itself for April will slowly evaporate and may spur policymakers to tighten the money supply to tamp down inflation later in the second half of the year. But at least for now the government can lay down its policy tools and enjoy a month or two of undisturbed growth.

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聚焦

热点 李克强出访亚欧四国 国务院总理李克强于5月19日至27日对 印度、巴基斯坦、瑞士和德国进行正式访 问。这是他履新后第一次出访，与四国加 深经贸合作是重点之一。中国是德国在亚 太地区最大贸易伙伴，德国是中国在欧洲 最大贸易伙伴；中瑞自贸区建设不断推 进；中印两国确立2015年双边贸易额将达 1000亿美元；近年中国和巴基斯坦双边贸 易增速在20%以上。

欧盟执意制裁中国光伏企业 欧盟成员国就欧委会对华光伏征税建议案 进行投票。即使多数成员国投反对票，欧 委员仍可启动临时反倾销与反补贴措施， 制裁中国光伏企业。几十家中国光伏企业 发表联合声明，反对欧盟对华光伏产品征

人民币对美元中间价屡创新高

税。如果欧盟执意征税，双方可能爆发贸 易冲突。

发改委高官遭微博实名举报落马

中国成全球矿业金属业最大买家

《财经》杂志副主编罗昌平于去年12月6

安永会计师事务所发表报告称，中国已成

人民币对美元中间价屡创新高

日在微博实名举报国家发改委副主任、国

全球矿业和金属行业最大买家。2012年中

5月27日上午，中国货币交易中心授权公

家能源局局长刘铁男涉嫌学历造假、巨额

国矿业及金属行业企业在全球范围内实施

布美元对人民币中间价6.1811，突破5月

骗贷和对他人恐吓威胁等问题。今年5月的

的并购金额合计达到217亿美元，占世界

24日创下历史低点6.1867。意味着5月人

官方消息证实，刘铁男涉嫌严重违纪正接

整体21%。70%以上并购发起方都中国有

民币兑美元中间价已经第六次刷新汇改以

受组织调查。其被指利用行政审批大权，

企业，表明中国国企是全球矿业及金属业

来高点，累计上升超过300点。

做权钱交易，谋取私利。

并购市场主力军。普华永道会计师事务所

银行业总负债132万亿元

许霆申请重审ATM机故障取款案

中国银监会网站发布数据显示，截至今年

2006年，许霆在广州办理1000元取款

一季度末，中国银行业金融机构总资产为

时，因ATM机故障实际获取17.5万元人民

37家央企去年借贷融资三万亿

141万亿元，总负债约为132万亿元。资产

币，被法院一审判处无期徒刑。经媒体大

《投资者报》研究院数据显示，2012年度

增加后管理难度及潜在风险也随之增大。

量报道后，二审改判有期徒刑5年。已获自

A股上市公司累计融资金额达8.2万亿元，

中国审计署称，中国农业银行业、建设银

由的许霆日前向广东高级人民法院申诉重

其中融资总额最高的50家企业的融资金额

行及进出口银行三家银行部分总支行违规

审。此案争议焦点在于银行有无责任。

总计4.27万亿元。而这50家企业中，央企

公布的数据则显示，过去5年中国企业海外

发放贷款总计逾255亿元。

12

企业与市场

并购额激增了5倍多。

达37家，占比74%；另有地方国企6家， 而真正意义上的民营上市公司只有2家。

广州镉超标大米多出自湖南

海外并购同比大幅下降

广州市食品药品监督管理局公布镉超标的

清科集团旗下私募通统计，今年4月中国

马蔚华卸任招行行长

大米及米制品生产厂家、品牌标识，其中

并购市场共完成65起并购交易，其中披

1999年起担任招商银行行长的马蔚华于近

多批次来自湖南，且均产自当地有色金属

露金额的有63起，交易总金额约为25.28

日提出不再担任招商银行主要领导职务，

之乡。专家分析认为，这与湖南独特的地

亿美元。与上月相比并购交易总金额下降

并于此后主动放弃参加招商银行下届执行

理条件以及历史形成的工业布局密切相

15.1%，与去年同期相比下降50.8%。同

董事会选举。离职后他将获得30万份招商

关，而农业投入品滥用、外源性污染、养

比降幅较大的原因在于去年4月发生7起海

银行股票增值权。48岁的田惠宇成为新一

殖业污染等因素也日渐显现。

外并购，交易金额达31.60亿美元。

届招行执行董事候选人。

June 2013

稳，但在大部分二线城市，商业地产却将

看，金价暴跌很可能是市场情绪到达临界

面临着供应过剩的危机。高力国际中国调

点的过度反应。而黄金的基本面并没有发

研董事谢靖宇表示，相比一线城市，大部

生根本性改变，因此市场大幅跳水并不会

分的二线城市的商业地产需求有限，而近

持续。

两年来供应量的急剧增加势必将对租金走 势造成压力。

该报告指出，从中期来看，持续多 年的黄金大牛市已步入尾声。尤其是当持

由于持续的需求及边远地区基础设施

有黄金的机会成本可能发生转变，持有黄

的提升，上海和北京的次中心市场均继续

金的吸引力也在不断减弱，因此金价面临

发展。在深圳和广州，新增供应则集中在

较强下行风险。但是，金价不会无限制下

市区。鉴于预计未来供应量，这四个城市

跌。自2009年初，全球央行总体上是不

的空置率在今年均会有所上升。今年，高

断增持黄金作为储备，尤其是俄罗斯、韩

力国际预测上海和北京的租金走势平稳，

国、土耳其等国增持非常明显。而各国央

广州和深圳的租金下降。

行不断购买黄金作为储备的行为也将对金

高力国际分析了二线城市沈阳、大

价给予一定支持。而从长期来看，黄金可

连、天津、青岛、南京、苏州、杭州、成

能会迎来一轮新的牛市。毕竟，全球都相

都、重庆和佛山的情况后，对部分城市

继加入货币宽松的阵营，而多印的纸币很

（南京和大连）写字楼市场持审慎乐观态

可能在未来某一天造成全球范围内通胀，

度。大部分二线城市开发迅速而需求有

从而使持有黄金的吸引力增加。

限，因此将面临供过于求的挑战。在九个

企业家群体幸福指数

城市中，预计逾半城市将面临租金下降

诺亚（中国）控股有限公司与《福布斯》

（沈阳、天津、成都和佛山）。除已拥有

罗兰贝格合伙人兼大中华区副总裁和

中文版发布全国首份针对企业家群体的幸

大量国际知名品牌的大连外，高力国际对

香港办公室负责人雷启迪对《中经评论》

福指数调研白皮书。调研参照国际经验，

其他二线城市的零售物业市场保持非常乐

表示，大陆资产管理市场最大的问题还是

在国内首次将幸福这一相对主观、难以测

观的态度。这些城市的零售市场将继续以

相关法律法规比较保守。大陆金融市场开

量的概念，细分为家庭、健康、财富等十

百货商场形态为主，其租金水平将仍与零

放较晚，所以很自然的，相关法律法规会

大指标，并量化成1-11级，使“幸福”变

售销售额挂钩。发展商对其转型做购物中

相对比较保守。随着大陆投资者和市场的

得可测量和评估。选择企业家群体作为调

心模式的战略需三思而后行。

日益成熟，将会看到大陆的法律法规向港

研对象，是因为他们相较于其他群体，承 担着更大的社会责任，对他们的讨论，更 具有风向标意义。

外资资产管理受挫大陆市场

台地区等其他市场慢慢靠拢。外资基金公

金价会不会“跌跌不休”

司成功之处有几点：不断推出新产品吸引

高盛近日公布报告称，金价目前从

顾客，海外销售渠道较多，对海外客户的

4月中旬的崩盘中有所回升。此次回升的

认知比较深刻。而大陆因为相关法律法规

家化管理层与平安信托内斗

主要动力在强劲的零售需求，与其形成鲜

相对比较保守，很多新产品无法推出，销

上海家化集团大股东平安信托与管理层矛

明对比的就是不断缩减的交易所上市基金

售渠道与海外也不同。本土基金公司销售

盾激化，双方公开指责对方。葛文耀被罢

(ETF)持仓量。

渠道比较多，与国有银行关系良好，对本

免集团董事长和总经理职务。上海家化集

展望未来，高盛预计金价将继续走

土客户的认知也比较深。而外资机构缺少

团是中国最大的化妆品公司，在上海证交

低。经济学家预期今年年末美国经济增长

这样的渠道，对本土客户的认知也没有本

所上市的上海家化联合股份有限公司是其

将再加速。短期来看，金价可能维持震

土机构好。

子公司，旗下拥有佰草集、美加净、六神

荡，因美国活动指数放缓，但ETF持仓持

雷启迪指出，目前外资资产管理机

等本土品牌。

续大幅缩减。目前，黄金持仓抛售比预期

构的对策是继续加强对大陆客户需求的研

快，金价低于短期预期，ETF持仓进一步

究，特别是未来的需求趋势。大陆客户对

放缓将会使金价持续走低。

金融衍生品理解不够，因此要加强客户培

分析与预测 二线城市商业地产过剩危机

而在美国上市的诺亚财富（NOAH）

育。另外，在销售金融衍生品时，不能再

高力国际发布《中国商业地产市场

发布的“黄金走势分析”专题研究报告认

像过去那样，而要让客户清楚地了解到其

概览》报告。度过了前几年的快速增长期

为，黄金兼具金属属性与货币属性，金价

中的风险。

后，中国一线城市的商业地产市场已趋平

是这两个属性相互博弈的结果。从短期来

（本栏目大部分内容根据公开信息整理）

June 2013

13

MONTH IN RE VIE W

NEWSBRIEFS

14

Investment slows as output falls behind estimates

Home prices continue to rise

China’s fixed-asset investments slowed in April, Bloomberg reported, citing China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Industrial output also fell below analyst estimates for the first quarter of the year. Fixed-asset investment grew by 20.6% in January through April, down from 20.9% in the first quarter. Industrial production hit 9.3%, just below the expected 9.4%. The response from China’s new leadership will indicate the level of its tolerance for slowing growth.

Gradually rising inflation could rule out heavy-handed stimulus spending as a way to boost investment and production.

Home prices continued to rise across China’s largest cities in April despite aggressive efforts by the government to curb the market, The Wall Street Journal reported. Average new home prices rose 5.34% year-on-year in April, the fastest rise since late 2011, according to a survey of real estate firms conducted by data firm China Real Estate Index System.

Prices rose in 76 cities and fell in 24 others. Compared to March, prices rose 1% to US$1,638 (RMB10,098) per square meter. “This confirms (our) view that the recent government control measures will not prevent housing prices from rising,” Credit Suisse analyst Jinsong Du said.

EU to impose punitive solar duties on China

Cadmium-tainted rice found in Guangzhou

The European Commission agreed on May 8 to a proposal from EU Trade Chief Karel De Gucht to impose punitive import duties on solar panels from China, Reuters reported.

The proposal, which says the duties would be levied by June 6, is the EU’s boldest response to what it sees as China’s dumping of cheap solar products into Europe. The EU’s investigation into dumping accusations against China’s solar panel makers has been extensive, but Brussels is cautious of souring a key relationship. Yi Xiaozhun, China’s ambassador to the WTO, said the decision was a mistake, but declined to comment on any reactionary moves from Beijing. The EU is also scrutinizing Chinese telecoms and airlines.

Half of the rice being sold in markets in the southern city of Guangzhou was contaminated with the carcinogenic metal cadmium, according to government tests, The Wall Street Journal reported. The Guangzhou Food and Drug Administration tested 18 samples of rice in the city, nearly half of which contained excessive levels of cadmium. The news was met with anger online. “First water, then the air we breathe, and now the earth. How can people still survive?” commented one person on Sina Weibo, a service similar to Twitter. Several food safety scandals have rocked China this year, including record pollution in Beijing and dead pigs in Shanghai’s water supply.

Chinese exports top expectations

Microsoft to hire thousands in China

China’s exports grew faster than expected in April, rising 14.7% year-on-year compared to 10% in March, Bloomberg reported. Imports rose 16.8% year-on-year in April, compared to 14.1% in March. The country swung back to a trade surplus of US$18.2 billion, after recording a trade deficit of US$0.88 billion in March. The figures were announced on the heels of trade data releases in South Korea and Taiwan that missed expectations. Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group, said that exports may actually be 9 percentage points lower than reported because of businesses overstating export figures.

Microsoft’s CEO Steve Ballmer says the company plans to hire several thousand workers in China as its market share in smartphones and cloud computing services increases, Bloomberg reported. Ballmer said that China is the fastest growing market for its new smartphone operating system, Windows Phone 8. The mobile OS has received a tepid response from other markets around the world. The software giant also plans to launch its Windows Azure cloud computing system next month as a joint venture with Beijing-based 21 Vianet Group, which would make it the first company to offer cloud computing services in China.

June 2013

GDS旗舰店会刊广告设计稿5.27下午(转曲).pdf 2 2013-5-27 16:35:27

China tightens rules on bond market A Chinese finance industry body issued new rules for the bond market on May 20 to help eliminate institutions’ advantage over retail investors, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Underwriters must now set rates on short- and medium-term bonds closer to those already on the market, reducing the markup above the issuer’s price that underwriters could previously sell the bonds at. Bonds can also no longer be purchased at rates that are unavailable to retail investors. The sources said the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued the rules for the booming bond market at a closed meeting.

Party fires top economic planner The Chinese Communist Party fired a top official from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in mid-May for “severe disciplinary violations,” Bloomberg reported. State-run Xinhua News Agency reported that NDRC Vice Chairman Liu Tienan was terminated, citing the Organization Department, which is charged with appointing officials. The Ministry of Supervision announced it was investigating Liu on Sunday. In a December microblog post, an editor at Caijing Magazine accused Liu of improper business dealings. “This is a case where the central government tries to signal its seriousness of anticorruption and encouragement of real-name reporting of corruption,” said Jiangnan Zhu, an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong.

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Baidu eyes online video service Chinese internet search giant Baidu said it would pay US$370 million (RMB2.2 billion) to acquire streaming television service PPStream, The Wall Street Journal reported. Baidu said Tuesday it would integrate the PPStream’s library into its iQiyi online-video service. Growth of mobile video services in China has boomed in recent years, as trends show many Chinese consume TV content on their mobile devices. In a similar pattern to their North American counterparts, Chinese internet companies have invested heavily in acquiring original video content to boost their offerings. While this has been an expensive play, analysts believe it will be highly profitable over time due to strong demand from advertisers for video ads that target specific demographics.

June 2013

15

专栏

重构与突破 怎样才能在全球贸易规则重构时代取得成功 文 | 王新奎 上海WTO事务咨询中心总裁、上海对外经贸大学教授

最

近一年多来，我深

去，这是完全扁平的世界。你如果不与它

深体会到世界在

联系，就与10亿人的市场隔绝；如果让它

变。2008年金融危机刚开

进来，那你做好准备了没有？从现在的变

始时，美国《哈佛商业评

化看，如果不能在这个新平台上创新，就

论》有一篇文章，谈到十

会被挤压到价值链的最底端。

大必须关注的经济趋势。 当时我看到这篇文章后， 王新奎

今非昔比

将其中“现在作为一家企

我提出五个问题。第一，我们还拥有

业，发现世界不仅仅是循

取之不竭的廉价劳动力吗？我们还能从农

环而是重构”这段话摘了

民手中无偿取得土地吗？我们还能继续享

下来。

用经济全球化的午餐吗？我们还坚信经济

我的体会是全球贸易规则在重

增长一定会带来福利吗？我们还能像上世

构。2011年美国国会专门开了听证会，

纪80、90年代，特别是中国加入WTO前

听证中国是不是“数据贸易”的自由贸易

后，形成继续改革的全民共识吗？

体。WTO审议服务贸易政策时，西方发达

这些都已今非昔比。20多年来经济

国家也提出数据贸易自由化的问题。最近

高速增长的经营环境，在今后5或10年将

人都能赚钱、每个行业都有投资机遇的时

有可能会就数据贸易自由化问题引发一场

不复存在。全世界都要适应低速增长的环

代，大概不会再来了。

贸易争端。

境。因为新一轮技术革命，新一轮全球产

研究世界经济发展的历史，特别是近

国际贸易都在适应云时代的变化，或

业链和价值链的调整，往往会带来财富增

代工业革命以后的历史发现，一个国家和

者可能更广泛，我总结为“智能制造和数

长，却很少会带动就业增长。而财富增长

民族能够抓住机遇实现20至30年的高速增

字制造相结合的新产业革命”。所有的贸

并不仅仅体现在GDP增长上。

长，已经非常不容易了。中华民族已经非 常幸运了，绝大多数国家和民族没有抓住

易规则和投资规则都在调整，以适应这个 需要。而这一轮的投资和贸易规则调整的 主导权仍掌握在西方发达国家手中。

16

全球贸易规则正在重构

机遇不再 政府调控能否永远创造奇迹？很多

机遇。只有少数几个国家抓住了这样的机 遇。中国已经把握了30年的机遇，还希望

云平台包括三个部分。最核心的是

企业家都在等待，现在的困难是政策引起

上端的云计算加上大数据，下端有两个方

的，希望寄托在政策能够变，好像政府调

有30年的机遇，这不太符合常态。

面，一端是物联网和无线存储，一端是移

控永远能创造奇迹。过去20年，政府调控

动终端和虚拟社区，已经不是社交网络的

的收放制度是过热就收一收，冷了就放下

今时不同往日。过去往往是政府在引

概念。在这样的平台上创新，每天都会有

来，大家觉得这种状况会永远持续下去。

导企业走这条路、走那条路。现在，突围

变化。

但是，就像一辆车，在高速行驶时发动机

之路在企业家脚下，企业家在探讨应该怎 么做。

掌握命运

现在很矛盾。如果开放，我们这片云

很正常，油箱里都是油。司机很清楚，稍

就和世界的云连在一起；如果不开放，我

微动一下方向盘，就会有反应。现在不同

过去我在教本科学生微观经济学时，

们这片云就和世界的云相隔绝。facebook

了，汽车开始减速。因此政府惯用或擅

一开始就给学生灌输这一概念：企业短期

在某种意义上可看成“世界第二大国

长的三个调控手段—货币政策、财政政

要解决怎么生产的问题，这对于企业家来

家”—拥有10亿活跃客户，而且几乎每

策、产业政策，有的经济学家认为，边际

说不是问题，命运掌握在市场手中。无非

天都上facebook，已不仅是社交网络和信

效应在不断下降，负面效果越来越明显。

是利润多一点少一点，市场好了就多一

息传输手段。先是通信进去，再是文化进

所以，企业家一定要行动，要将命运掌握

点，市场坏了就少赚一点。长期来看，微

去，现在是制造业、金融、政府管理都进

在自己手中。希望再有两位数的增速，人

观经济学的主题是生产什么的问题，这是

June 2013

围内，或者思路仅仅局限于你赢我输、你 胜我败、我活你死，是没有任何意义的。 当今世界就是共存共容，关键是怎样在重 建的产业链和价值链中定位。 第三个问题，在即将到来的商业模 式创新大潮面前，是否还有可能进入企业 家状态？彼得·德鲁克讲创新，指的就是 企业家状态。他认为企业家是一种状态而 不是一种职业。一个人一生中能够处于企 业家状态的实际时间是很短的。很多企业 家在创业时处于企业家状态，经过多年努 力，企业规模做大后，其实最多是管理者 而不是企业家，因为不符合德鲁克对于创 新的定义。 当前，商业模式的创新眼花缭乱，云 计算提供了以人为核心的巨大平台。在这 个平台上，人人可以创新，大学生也可以 创新。而企业家必须面对的巨大挑战是能 否再度进入企业家状态。

如何成功 怎样才能成功？很多年前，我看过 企业的存亡问题。而怎么生产，政府管得

链中如何定位？金融危机以来的5年中，

《个人在历史上的尊容》这本书，记得其

再好也没有用。区分企业家和管理者的标

我一直在从事这方面的工作，最深的体会

中一句话，“成功就是当机会来临的时

准是什么？就是决定怎么生产还是生产什

是全球产业链和价值链正在发生革命性变

候，你已经具备了必要条件”。我们从小

么。如果一个人既是企业家又是管理者，

化，这一点必须要有充分认识。现在西方

受的教育是“有志者事竟成”，从鼓励人

就要区分不同时期思考的重点是生产什么

经济体、发达经济体的政府极其困难，但

的角度看是对的，但不是真理。

还是怎么生产。企业家要将命运掌握在自

是全球性跨国公司极其活跃，调整极快，

想要成功单靠知识还不够，还要有机

己手中。在全球贸易规则重构的时代，不

并不像有些人所想的那样。他们的问题是

会。没有机会，可能努力一辈子都一事无

管服务业还是制造业，企业都面临着生产

企业不肯借钱给政府，政府才会困难。

成。但是，机会来临时，谁能抓住机会？

什么的问题。

巨大挑战 在这样的形势下，企业家是否思考过 以下三个问题？

《第三次工业革命》提出的（互联网

一定是具备必要条件的人。现在，我们企

技术和可再生能源的结合）是否构成革命

业正面临着这样一种环境，大家都感到机

性变化还有待观察，但是这种现象我亲眼

会在不断逼近，都在研究苹果公司是怎么

目睹在发生。最近一个时期，跨国公司的

成功的。通用汽车公司20多万雇员，市值

共享中心、供应链管理中心、总部研发中

360亿美元；而苹果公司只有3万多员工，

第一个问题，增长环境今非昔比，你

心大规模向上海进军，不是过去所想像的

市值是通用汽车的几十倍。机会是怎样向

的企业有没有可能，如何突破增长瓶颈？

贸易和投资结构的情况，而是近岸转移，

它逼近的？

如果没有可能，不如趁早关门，不要死

就是把生产、研发、物流管理、供应链管

第二个问题是当机会逼近时，是否已

撑。如果有可能，如何突破？每个企业家

理全部放到离产品市场最近的地方。某种

具备了必要条件？这是企业家需要解决的

都应该思考。我最近调研了几家企业，原

产品在美国销得很好，就把这些环节全部

问题，在看准机会的同时已具备了必要条

来都做服装，现在都在转型升级，都是在

放到美国；某种产品在中国销得好，这些

件，而必要条件确实是靠自己的努力创造

三五年前就开始讨论了，很多都应用到了

环节基本上就放到上海。这种现象非常明

出来的—从来就没有神仙皇帝也没有救

新技术。

显，不需要招商。近岸转移的趋势肯定已

世主。

第二个问题，在经济全球化发展出现

经出现。如果企业不能在全球产业链和价

（根据作者在2012中国管理·全球论坛上

新趋势时，你的企业在全球产业链和价值

值链中重新定位，而是放在很小的市场范

的演讲整理）

June 2013

17

COLUMN

Domestic drama Chinese directors can play to audiences growing weary of Hollywood blockbusters

By Ying Zhu, professor and departmental chair of media culture at City University of New York, College of Staten Island

T

o its dismay, Hollywood has been put on notice that its high-tech blockbusters are not faring well in China so far this year. The box office sales for such movies are Ying Zhu particularly lackluster compared to the spectacular success that US studios garnered last year, with films such as “Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol” leading the Chinese box office and seeing major ticket sales from China.

Meanwhile, to the delight of the Chinese studios, sales for Chineselanguage films have risen sharply this year. Speculation abounds as to whether the honeymoon between Hollywood and its Chinese audiences is coming to an end or just to a temporary halt.

To be fair, Chinese policies that are protective of domestic pictures might have played a role in Hollywood’s lessthan-par box-office performance. A government circular issued late last year offers a financial incentive, in the form of rebates on screening fees, to Chinese theater chains that receive at least 50% of their annual box-office revenue from Chinese films. Theater owners therefore have a strong incentive to keep a lid on box-office receipts from imported films.

Judging by the chatter on the Chinese internet, mainland audiences legitimately appear to have discovered

18

June 2013

anew the likability of domestic pictures, at least during the first quarter of 2013, and they are willing to give these pictures a try. Feng Xiaogang, by far the most successful Chinese director of popular domestic films, predicts that the Chinese audience may yet prove to be the savior of Chinese directors.

On-and-off Hollywood affair The reversal of fortune between US and Chinese studio films is not without precedent. To combat declining cinema attendance, regulators reintroduced Hollywood to China in 1995 with an annual quota of 10 big pictures. This instantly restored Chinese audiences’ movie-going habits and led audiences to discover the country’s own big-budget and high-tech entertainment pictures, what the Chinese called “domestic big-pictures.”

The domestic big pics all became blockbusters in 1995 and total boxoffice returns were 15% higher than in 1994.

China used Hollywood’s high-cost production values as the benchmark for predicting quality and performance. Domestic big pics imitated their foreign rivals, and the amount invested in several of these domestic films set records for the time. Among big spending productions, historic epics dominated other genres.

Fast forward to 2013, Chinese cinema’s current favor owes much to the strong performance of films that don’t

qualify as big pics. Rather, a number of modestly budgeted small pics with local flavor have genuinely connected with the Chinese audiences.

Popular domestic films such as “Lost in Thailand” and “Finding Mr. Right” succeeded by spotlighting contemporary Chinese life, something that is often missing in the explosion-filled Hollywood action genre and the overbearing historical sweep of Chinese epics. As the director of “Lost in Thailand” puts it, “There is hunger from the audience for movies that talk about the real-life situation in China.”

There are some lessons to be drawn from the last resurgence of Chinese film in the mid-1990s, as that rebound of Chinese cinema did not last. The popularity of Hollywood entertainment films led to a slew of crude imitations saturated with gratuitous sex and violence. The proliferation of cheap knockoffs did not sit well with either the censor or the audience. Revenue from domestic pictures soon fell, along with the number of domestic films produced. Chinese cinema entered a downturn in 1996.

The blockbuster success of “Lost in Thailand” has spurred a wave of copycats. The oversaturation of quick, if not cheap knockoffs might again prove fatal if Chinese studios are not careful.

Growing up with the audience There is a noticeable fatigue among Chinese moviegoers who I have spoken

GDS旗舰店会刊广告设计稿5.27下午(转曲).pdf 1 2013-5-27 16:35:26

to regarding the formulaic Hollywood flicks.

Once the novelty wears off, the attraction of sequels becomes less appealing, particularly when the ubiquity of Hollywood makes it less exotic, or desirable.

What we are witnessing is the maturation of a generation of Chinese cinephiles coming of age in the company of (pirated) Hollywood films. They have outgrown their adolescent infatuation with action films and now yearn for more sophisticated films. It does not mean that they will not time and again return to their childhood comfort zone.

It does mean that they are venturing out to explore films of diverse style and scale.

Hollywood has yet to catch up with the evolving appetite of Chinese audiences. The US film industry produces more than the big-budget and high-tech action adventures. It also produces quality films that elicit real emotions and provoke real thinking, but they are not considered viable exports.

As the cliché has it, the dimwitted global audiences are not capable of fathoming spoken words and savoring subtle verbal cues. Hollywood has confined its China pictures to action-adventure, much as China’s US pictures have managed to relegate themselves to the martial-arts ghetto.

This hesitancy may be to the benefit of domestic directors. Cinematic poaching at the global scale is no longer a one-way street. Hollywood has succeeded in repackaging Asian cinema with “The Departed,” Martin Scorsese’s remake of Hong Kong’s “Infernal Affairs,” winning an Academy award. Meanwhile, a new generation of Chinese directors is learning to adapt Hollywood’s small picture style of solid story and human characters. “Lost in Thailand,” for example, is heavily influenced by “Midnight Run,” the genre twisting 1980s comedy-thriller.

As the whisper in the classic “Field of Dreams” has it, “If you build it, they will come.” The domestic film market has been built; now Chinese directors have only to conquer it anew – this time with contemporary culture instead of flashy special effects.

C

M

Y

CM

MY

CY

CMY

K

Zhu is a leading scholar on Chinese cinema and media studies, she is the author or editor of eight books, most recently of “Two Billion Eyes: The Story of China Central Television.” She is currently working on a project concerning Sino-Hollywood courtship.

June 2013

19

专栏

生存还是毁灭 商业银行如何因应云时代的挑战 文 | 马蔚华 招商银行前行长

毫

互联网金融挑战

们的生活方式和生产方式。

业银行将面临怎样的危机？

无疑问，新时代的 到来必然会影响人

马蔚华

随着云时代或大数据时代的到来，商

银行结算。但从上世纪80年代起，IT企业 就开始觊觎这一业务，因为既然是借助IT

云时代必然会对像银行这样

银行具有IT属性，因为银行的两大

进行的，那就可以自己做。最早是比尔·

的服务业产生影响，在某种

功能信用中介和支付平台，都要靠IT来支

盖茨，他在80年代设计了一个软件，可以

意义上会决定其生存和发

撑。我经常说，信息技术对银行而言，就

不通过银行直接替客户结算。美国的银行

展。我们对这个问题的认识

是水和空气的关系。

家到处奔走，试图说服政府。美国政府给

和理解不敢怠慢。大数据和

银行伴随着IT信息技术的进步而发

银行留了一条路，要有分工，大家都要有

云时代是相联系的，我们把

展。电视剧《乔家大院》时代的票号，靠

饭吃。但是这事没有完。后来包括日本索

《大数据》作者涂子沛从美

马车传递票据，速度非常慢。有了电话电

尼、中国电信运营商都在琢磨。最大的变

国请来，介绍大数据给我们带来什么？特

报后大大前进了。过去，银行把客户资金

化就是第三方支付的出现，不得不承认这

别是给商业银行带来了什么？

从这个城市划到那个城市，中间要经历很

是社会进步的结果。很多小额支付必须尽

长时间。进入互联网时代，这个问题就迎

快完成，银行满足不了。第三方支付得以

韧而解了。

迅速壮大，每年的递增达百分之百，现在

我对云计算的理解就是IT资源拥有权 和使用权的分离。云计算平台可以给产业 聚合和协同带来巨大能量。云计算时代的

IT改变了人们的生活，也改变了人们

制造资源在地理上是分散的，但是一旦有

的需求，包括对金融的需求。假如没有互

需求通过云计算平台就可以快速聚合。资

联网的发达，没有人会对银行提出“零时

还有一件事，虽然还没有到来，但感

源主体间的协调性在云计算时代非常高。

很快就到4万亿。这就是资本的技术性“脱 媒”。

差”的要求，也不会有人提出个性化量体

觉到很有威胁。就是以脸谱（facebook）

进入云时代，每家企业都可能成为

裁衣的需求。有了互联网，对于服务的需

为代表的社交网络，拥有大量的客户、资

冠军。几年前，弗里德曼《世界是平的》

求越来越高涨。银行解决需求也要靠互联

金供给者和需求者。有史以来有两种融资

说互联网时代已经“推平”了世界。而云

网，IT推动了金融服务业的发展。

模式，间接融资模式和直接融资模式，后

计算把世界变小了，让每家企业都拥有了

有几件事感到压力很大。传统银行

者就是股票交易所和债券市场。有了以脸

无数接口。这些接口在云端开放，无限拓

的结算支付业务是给社会结算搭建平台。

谱为代表的社交网络后，可能会出现第三

展，可以帮助企业汇聚所有的需求，从定 单信息到原材料的供给，再到物流平台 和终端消费，都能够找到相匹配的资源 支持。 云时代的企业竞争力不再体现在劳 动生产力上，而是知识生产力或信息竞争 力。很多国家都在积极部署云计算、大数 据的应对措施。美国应该是先行者，预计 到2020年，美国云计算占IT业总产值将达 到30%-50%。云计算也是中国的重大机 遇。中国有几个条件，互联网用户全球最 多，拥有全球最多的PC和智能手机用户， 还有世界上最多的中小企业。这些中小企 业一旦对云计算产生迫切需求，中国经济 就会真正实现向高端的转型。

20

过去是银行一统天下，所有商品交换都是

June 2013

《大数据》作者涂子沛

对大数据进行精确地分析判断

种形式，就是互联网融资，这会对银行的

实的就是互联网。如一卡通，通过互联网

是没有到海里游泳，也就不可能被淹没。

生存和发展带来挑战。

技术把存折变成多种功能的银行卡，现在

中国银行业的国际化程度还很低。当务之

互联网融资不仅对银行构成挑战，

已经有6000万-7000万用户。假如每个用

急是提升管理，而云计算和大数据带来了

对股票交易所也有挑战。有人建议，不用

户有1万多元存款，就是7000亿-8000亿

契机。

到交易所上市，在社交网络上就可以“上

元，这就奠定了零售的基础。我们在中国

比如，银行网点的选择和建立，过去

市”。脸谱8亿多客户里有很多会买它的股

第一个推出互联网银行。现在的网上替代

很多就是“拍脑袋”，“这个地方不错，

票，这叫“重筹融资”，实际上在现实中

率近90%，而零售网点还不到1000个，这

挺热闹”。缺少精准的分析判断，结果很

已经发生了。通过互联网可以筹措资金，

对大银行而言微不足道，但我们渠道的销

多网点建起来以后没有达到预期的效果。

银行毫无疑问着面临生死存亡的挑战，但

售能力几乎和大银行一样。我们连续多次

我们请的《大数据》作者住在匹斯

挑战往往也会带来机会。

获得国内外权威机构授予的“中国最佳商

堡。他把匹斯堡的社区地图不断点击，点

业银行”称号。

击到每个街道，这个街道周围的居民分

大数据营销机遇

互联网在带来挑战的同时也带来了

布、层次就一目了然，然后根据这种精准

比尔·盖茨当年曾说过：“你们这些

机遇。云计算和大数据同样会带来很多机

设计的判断开设网点。这就是管理的提

传统银行，如果不改变，就是21世纪将要

遇。比如，云时代的银行可以迅速了解客

升。

灭绝的恐龙。”这句话很刺激我，当时我

户需求。大数据时代的信息是公开透明

对于资本的运用也如此。现在资本很

刚到招商银行，该行还很小。但我在看到

的，完全可以通过数据分析，了解不同客

紧张，如何节约资本要靠判断，对各个条

挑战的同时也看到了机遇。互联网是上个

户的不同需求，从而实现精准营销，大大

线的产品分配、产品需求，对于未来产品

世纪末的新事物，不管大银行、小银行、

减少成本。还可以根据需求的变化规律，

的分析，都可以通过云计算，让资本更科

新银行在互联网上都是平等的，都在同一

研究下一个产品的供给。

学地进行分配。还可以精准地进行资源整

条起跑线上。只要把握好，不仅可以缩短 差距，还可以超越对手。

此外，还可以提升管理。这些年我们

合和流程改造。

就是在信息技术不断变化的时代，持续提

《大数据》这本书给我最深刻印象的

今天我们面对的云计算也一样，也是

升企业管理的水准。云计算和大数据给企

一句话是“除了上帝，任何人都必须用数

新的。成败取决于你对新事物的认知和行

业管理带来的冲击非常大。虽然中国银行

据说话”。云计算在给银行带来挑战的同

动。当年，我们就借助互联网技术，大胆

业在全球金融危机中没有受到什么损失，

时，也一定会带来光明的前途和巨大的发

提出零售银行的概念。零售要设网点，我

但是老实说，我们的管理水平比西方有很

展机遇。

们当年才100多个网点，还没有客户。有

大差距。金融危机受的损失少，不是管理

（根据作者在2012中国管理·全球论坛上

人觉得是异想天开，而使异想天开变成现

能力强，也不是对风险防范的水平高，而

的演讲整理）

June 2013

21

COLUMN

Bad Seeds Rural credit is still beholden to politicians despite reforms of the last decade.

By Lynette Ong, associate professor of political science at University of Toronto

C

redit has been the subject of much scrutiny in China. While major governmentowned banks steal the most headlines, it’s also important to understand Lynette Ong how credit operates at the lowest grassroots levels. Unsurprisingly, that system has risks and inefficiencies of its own.

Rural credit cooperatives (RCCs) are China’s main official banking institutions servicing borrowers outside of cities. The lack of alternative savings institutions and investment channels has made RCCs very popular savings options in rural China, where the other option is often keeping household savings under the mattress. The banks are then officially charged with lending those funds to support agricultural development among farm households.

Despite this official mandate, most of these funds did not find their way into enterprising farmers’ pockets.

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, about half of all RCC loans went to township and village enterprises (TVEs), which are small or mediumsized enterprises located in and managed by townships and villages.

This bias toward government enterprises did not yield positive returns for the cooperatives either. At the end of the 1990s, the official nonperforming loan rate for such cooperatives was

22

June 2013

estimated to be 50% of total loans. My own estimate suggests the rate of bad loans to TVEs was as high as 80%.

Fiscal flaws In developing countries, it is not uncommon for rural banking institutions to direct a disproportionate amount of their loans to large rather than small borrowers. But there are unique political and economic reasons for this phenomenon in China.

Although they are officially banking institutions, RCCs have been forced to walk a line between China’s fiscal and banking systems, which serve inherently different economic and social objectives. The fiscal system plays a redistributive role: It collects taxes from the “haves” and redistributes the revenue in the form of social services to the “have-nots,” at least in theory.

The banking system has an intermediary purpose: Banking institutions pool capital from savers and allocate it to borrowers, with the price of loans reflecting the borrower's risk profile.

The intermediary role of banking institutions improves the efficiency of capital allocations by channeling funds from areas with excess savings to areas with a greater need for loans. Alternatively, the use of savings to serve a fiscal role can bring with it huge inefficiencies in capital allocations. Moreover, when this capital is allocated it is often subject to political considerations rather than hard-nosed

economic assessments. In other words, these loans often end up in the hands of politically well-connected borrowers who have little incentive to repay.

Local interference in credit allocations is an unintended consequence of the demands of Chinese political institutions. The behavior of those in local government is largely motivated by the Communist Party evaluation system and by the fiscal system. Cadre evaluation, the basis of officials' promotions, emphasizes local economic growth and improvement of fiscal revenue to the exclusion of everything else.

Local governments in China are additionally responsible for financing 70% of government expenditures, significantly more than in most countries. These include the bulk of government social services. But local governments face a systemic imbalance between those expenditures and the means they are given to generate revenues. To meet the central government’s demands, local officials siphon resources from formal credit institutions to finance local industrial development to raise revenue.

Like all local bureaucratic agencies in China, the cooperatives are subject to a dual accountability system in which one part is political. Under the system, managers in township cooperatives report to county cooperative unions, but they were also accountable to township party secretaries. County cooperative unions were also

黄金区域 低风险、高回报的投资机遇，坐享加拿大西部经济繁荣的优势 及其堪比任何发达国家的商业地产连锁效应

当

今动荡的全球经济使众多投资者

购物广场或进行再融资，为投资者提供丰

空间不断上升的需求使进驻率高企（据国

感到迷茫。中国住宅房地产市场

厚的利润。

际研究咨询公司高力公司(Colliers)的数

一蹶不振，人民币汇率也经历了表现最差

在30年的经营历史中，自2001年

据，埃德蒙顿的进驻率自2003年起长期维

的一年。然而，在世界的某些区域，经济

迄今，REDEV的创始人已经开发了逾

持在95%以上）成为租金上升的推动力。

却持续繁荣。如加拿大西部富产石油的省

11,000单元的住宅地产，并帮助逾5,000

在亚伯达，租金仍保持低位，为未来的租

份亚伯达及其邻省萨斯喀彻温，而加拿大

投资者成为加拿大29座商场的合伙所有

金和资本价值上升提供了空间。

元则是投资者安全的避险天堂。

人。

加拿大西部的人口统计数据令全世界

全球经济衰退对加拿大西部影响甚

在投资者中，三分之二是加拿大居

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微，该地区因丰富的石油、天然气、农

民，很多人就住在商场附近，这充分说明

增多，失业率下降。零售额增长快于地区

田、钾肥、钻石和铀储藏，正处于资源

了其地理位置的优越和地产的价值。这一

人口增长，通胀较低，经济学家预测，这

推动的经济繁荣期。传统的石油和天然气

模式为投资者提供直接和持续的现金流和

个拥有4百万人口的地区，在未来10年将

储藏覆盖亚伯达的半数地区，而过去10

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年的技术革新正在打开该地区丰富的含油

支付相对低廉的税收，同时从加拿大严格

加拿大商业地产为亚洲投资者在当今

沙储藏。包括道达尔(Total SA)和中石化

的商业法中受益，也无需承担政府限价政

动荡的全球经济中提供安全的避险天堂。

(Sinopec)在内的世界最大的能源公司，

策的风险。

商业地产为通胀提供风险对冲，比住宅地

在该地区大举投资，其目的是帮助亚伯达 在2018年之前将石油产量翻番。

REDEV公司不是投机性公司。公司

产更稳健，比股票的波动更少。然而，对

从经济迅速增长地区现有的、区位优越的

于投资者而言，很难或几乎不可能靠自己

中国的投资者或许会疑惑于如何才能

主要商业地产中获得稳定收益。该模式紧

的力量进入商业地产。REDEV公司给投

在这强劲增长的盛宴中分一杯羹，请访问

扣加拿大经济和商业地产稳定性的两大积

资者提供可承受的市场进入水准，使投资

REDEV Properties(www.redevproper-

极趋势，特别提供5年期固定利率抵押贷

者轻易获得低风险，高回报的投资机遇。

ties.com)房地产公司，为您呈现低风险、

款，并以REDEV

当今全球经济充满不确定性，还有什么时

高回报的投资机会。

5-10年的租金逐年递增形出租。

成立于1981年的REDEV

Properties名义提供

Proper-

加拿大的资源繁荣刺激了经济其它部

ties公司向投资者提供在经济不断增长的

门的增长。零售业空间供应短缺。加拿大

加拿大城市成为现存主要商业地产合伙所

人均零售面积仅为美国的一半，零售需求

有人的机会。REDEV公司帮助提升购物

持续飙升。而亚伯达和萨斯喀彻温省尤其

广场的盈利潜能，在这一过程中使投资者

如此，这里的居民拥有加拿大最高的可支

收益最大化。在4到7年后，公司出售这些

配收入和最低的失业率。加拿大对零售业

候比现在转向安全投资、乐观银行账户余 额渐增更加理想呢？

更多信息，请致电本公司上海办事处 +86 21 6103 7119 访问www.redevproperties.com或 发送电邮至 infocanada@redevproperties.com

COLUMN

answerable to county party bosses.

Until the late 1990s, local party secretaries had veto power over use of personnel and financial resources held by the cooperatives. RCC managers formerly were appointed, evaluated and promoted by local party secretaries. This system explains the bias in lending toward local governmentrelated firms and projects in all locales.

Rural credit reform Since 2007, the central government has encouraged the establishment of a host of grassroots and informal cooperative financial organizations as part of efforts to inject competition into a sector hitherto monopolized by RCCs. The range of new rural credit institutions includes township and village banks (TVB), microcredit companies and various rural mutual aid funds.

Contrary to its name, TVBs are typically established in county-level cities that have a vibrant industrial sector.

They function like full-fledged banks, offering saving deposits and loans but are only licensed to operate locally.

Microcredit companies typically issue loans up to RMB10,000 or RMB50,000 yuan but are not allowed to accept deposits. Rural mutual aid funds range from formal institutions registered with the department for industry and commerce that are allowed to absorb savings as well as issue loans, to those endorsed by the central government for poverty alleviation purpose and those endorsed by local governments that can only absorb savings indirectly as membership fees.

The government has also restructured RCCs to some extent. In the late 1990s, cooperative management rights were transferred from the country’s

24

June 2013

central bank to the provincial governments, with the intention of making regional governments financially responsible for the credit cooperatives in their jurisdictions. The provincial RCC unions are administrative organizations that do not take deposits or give loans. They represent the respective provincial governments in managing their credit cooperatives.

In addition, subject to certain conditions, RCCs can choose to adopt one of two new institutional models or can maintain their present form.

First, rural commercial banks conduct business like any urban commercial bank and are similarly bound by few policy requirements. Second, rural cooperative banks are a hybrid of rural commercial banks and credit cooperatives. While they can raise equity by bringing in investors, they are required to allocate a certain proportion of their loan portfolios to agricultural projects.

A majority of RCCs nationwide, particularly those in the central and western regions, have opted to become rural cooperative banks.

As of now, the institutional reforms are still ongoing. As the conversion requires improvement in financial performance, the goal is to ultimately reform underperforming RCCs. Despite institutional changes, and the accompanying growth in assets, liabilities and shareholders’ equities, their long-term sustainability is not necessarily better after restructuring.

Though formal ties between local governments and RCCs have been severed, the former is still able to exert a certain degree of control over resource allocations. This is not only attributable to long-standing political culture in China, but cadre evaluation and fis-

cal decentralization still put substantial pressure on local governments to prioritize local economic development to the exclusion of social development.

Bailouts in the name of reform could actually worsen perceptions of accountability at RCCs. As part of the 2003-2005 reform package, the central bank provided RMB165.6 billion conditional debt-for-bills swaps and RMB830 million earmarked central bank loans to help RCCs clean up their debt burdens and toxic loans. The central bank’s subsidies have encouraged credit officers to make unjustifiably risky decisions and to take financially irresponsible actions.

The initial bailout raises the “moral hazard” that RCCs will expect to be bailed out again since they have gotten away with bad financial decisions in the past. The expectation of rescue thus discourages RCCs from adopting meaningful institutional changes.

As local-government debt mounts, the actions of RCCs and other rural financial institutions are a key part of this growing risk. If reforms are not enacted to promote lending for purely economic grounds, the inefficiency of lending for political reasons will eventually become unsustainable.

Lynette Ong is an associate professor of political science at University of Toronto, where she is also a faculty member of the Asian Institute at the Munk School of Global Affairs. This is an excerpt from her most recent book, “Prosper or Perish: Credit and Fiscal Systems in Rural China,” examining the nexus of China’s rural credit and fiscal systems.

All eyes on Canada Commercial real estate in the Canadian province of Alberta is a safe, hasstle-free investment for investors worldwide, says Regan Richardson of REDEV Properties What are the advantages for investors in looking at the shopping mall and commercial real estate segment of the market in Canada?

We find it interesting that many investors seem to think that buying residential property is the best investment in real estate. The truth of the matter is that if they do not plan to live in the property, it is really not worthwhile compared to the ease of owning and managing a retail commercial asset. Residential property has the tremendous burden on the landlord or resident to pay all the costs of taxes, maintenance, fees, compared to retail commercial where the tenant pays all these expenses. This is commonly called triple net leasing.

In retail commercial real estate, the tenant pays all the costs and the landlord nets substantially more than residential property with almost no hassle.

As Warren Buffet says, “any investor should only own two residential properties: one to live in and one for vacation.”

REDEV makes it easy for overseas investors to invest in shopping malls through direct equity shares starting at CAD $50,000 to the millions of dollars.

What economic factors make many people view Canada as a “Safe Haven” for investment in these volatile times?

The Canadian banking sector is rat-

Regan Richardson

ed to be the best in the world. The country’s high standard of living and abundant resources make Canada one of the most desirable places to live in the world.

The province of Alberta is often spoken of as a high-potential investment region these days.

What the main advantages you see for investors in looking at Alberta?

Alberta is benefitting from a strong economy that has been the cornerstone for Canada’s economic security.

The abundance of natural resources has drawn Canadians from every province in search of jobs and a better life. This means Alberta’s provincial economy will continue to experience growth for decades due to the high global demand for oil, gas, uranium, and potash.

What are the key factors investors should consider when making a choice between different

shopping mall investment opportunities?

The answer is simple, “location, location, location” and a strong and complimentary tenant mix. REDEV has a proven formula of 100% success. Because we purchase existing shopping malls, we are able to review the history and look at “true data” before we acquire a retail property.

What factors would make now a good time for investors to look at this kind of opportunity?

Our shopping malls benefit from Alberta’s low unemployment, extremely low vacancy rates, and robust job growth over the next decade, if not decades. Investors looking for low risk investments with high yield returns reinvest over and over again with us because we have 100% record of success.

This investment is perfect as a medium hold investment that can produce returns in 4-7 years of 15%-20% P.A. on average.

How does Canada stack up against other countries as a place for foreign investment? Why? Canada stacks up quite impressively against other countries in the foreign investment category. It has the most stable banking system in the world and a strong currency that puts it at the top for foreign investment.

This is why REDEV’s motto is “simple, stable, secure.”

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

INTERVIEW • REGAN RICHARDSON

访谈

代表成都 对话世界 专访成都百扬实业有限公司总经理官维 文 | 海风 迎接“2013成都《财富》全球论

为

度，进一步扩大百扬大厦的知名度和影响

坛”的召开，论坛主会场所在地

力。我们不放弃哪怕一次这样的机会，这

的成都锦江区于4月中旬在上海隆重举行

也是我们高度重视并积极参与这次投资说

了“2013年成都市锦江区现代服务业投资

明会的原因之一。

同时也给成都增添一道靓丽的休闲风景。 问：百扬大厦有哪些独特的地理优 势？

说明会”。

答：成都是西部最大的中心城市，也

说明会吸引了来自海内外的100余 家企业近200多名嘉宾参会。现场气氛热

问：此次来上海有哪些收获？准备规 划哪些新项目？

是极具包容性的城市。市场覆盖四川省并 辐射西部地区8个省市区3亿人口。现代服

烈，反响强烈。利用会议休息时间，《中

答：我经常来上海，每次来都会抽

务业发展迅速，消费旺盛，城市的对外吸

经评论》慕名采访了成都百扬实业有限公

时间进行商务考察。这次来上海，对包括

引力、辐射力和城市综合服务功能日益增

司总经理官维先生。

外滩一些著名音乐酒吧在内的高端餐饮场

强。成都也是中国私家车消费意识最超前

他是一位沉稳、慎思、儒雅的企业管

所进行了重点考察。希望对正在筹划中的

的城市，私人轿车拥有量全国排名第三。

理者，言谈之间不失热情和坦诚。采访话

百扬大厦云顶商务酒吧起到一定的借鉴作

双流国际机场已成为中国大陆第四大航空

题围绕着百扬大厦—这一由成都百扬实

用。

城。这座城市每年吸引着数以万计的全球

业有限公司在蓉城CBD核心区天府广场

我们曾经考虑过引进纯主题会所，

精心打造的高端商业综合体和城市地标展

但经过可行性分析后，发现成功的几率不

在成都的商业版图中，天府广场商

开。

高。考虑到百扬大厦整体定位和入驻客户

圈东接盐市口商圈，向西与城西经济圈相

的品质，现在规划引进一家与大厦气质相

呼应，向北与天府广场为邻，向南则是城

符的商务酒吧，为中外商务人士提供一个

市发展的黄金轴线人民南路的起点。同时

问：如何看待上海市场对于百扬大厦 的重要性？

游客慕名而来。

休憩放松和业务洽谈的舒适平台。成都有

也是城市金融机构、高端百货、品牌旗

答：上海是面向世界的国际化大都

相当发达的餐饮文化和浓厚的休闲氛围，

舰店、休闲娱乐中心最集中的区域。百

市，也是国际品牌和国内外大企业云集之

这与地域文化和人们的生活习惯有关。但

扬大厦独特的地理优势，便是紧邻天府

地。百扬大厦是成都全新的城市综合体，

这些场所普遍比较大众化，还稀缺高端精

广场—这里不仅是成都和四川的文化中

其业态涵盖国际甲级写字楼、高档百货卖

品酒吧。而百扬大厦坐落于成都的城市心

心，也是大西南地区的文化商业中心，文

脏之地，是成都崭新的商务地标楼

化的聚集效应大大地提升了该地段的人

场、云顶观景会所及高档餐厅， 整体定位是高端、精品、国

宇，非常有利于打造一个更具

气。

际化，着力于吸引国际品牌

国际特色的精品休闲场所。我

百扬大厦坐落于城市中心的黄金区

和国内外大企业入住。从这

们希望从酒吧的定位、风格、

位，享有四通八达的交通网络，这些都吸

个角度看，上海市场可谓“

装潢和服务等各个方面，充分

引着国内外著名企业争相进驻。大厦周边

商家必争之地”。因此，我

展现时尚精致、舒适私密的特

配套设施齐全，星罗棋布着众多的银行、

色。我们希望酒吧的落成能给大

中高档酒店和名牌餐饮；这里交通便捷，

厦的尊贵客户提供更好的服务，

地铁一号线与地铁二号线交汇的天府广场

们希望加大上海地区 的宣传推广力

站有两层专属通道直达大厦。入住百扬 大厦，既能享受交通便利和齐全配 套，更能彰显企业的品牌和实力！ 问：百扬大厦在软硬件上有 哪些创新和特色？ 答：一流的硬件和服务为百扬 大厦的高品质提供了保障。大厦拥有

官维先生

百扬大厦是成都百扬实业有限公司历时精心铸造最具商业向心力的“城市地标”。大厦占地面积14.2亩，建筑总面积近14万平方 米；楼层总数共计42层，其中地上37层，地下5层，约500个地下停车位；是集国际甲级写字楼、高端时尚百货、云顶观景商务会 所及高档餐饮等多种业态的商业综合体，具备国际会议、商务办公、购物、餐饮休闲等复合形商务、商业功能。

13部进口KONE高速电梯、700平米写字

入住率已达40%，其中包括惠普、美国礼

楼独立大堂，净层高达3米的办公空间以及

来、中粮、固特异、中化集团旗下中国对

架高网络地板等，都使大厦的硬件指标完

外经济贸易信托有限公司等世界五百强客

问：作为成都的商务旗帜，这次财富

全符合国际甲级标准。

户，以及10余家各行业龙头企业，涵盖金

论坛在成都召开，百扬大厦有没有针对性

硬件能吸引客户，软件才是留住客

融、科技、医疗等多个领域。特别还赢得

地安排国际性的推广活动？

户的重要因素。在保证一流硬件配套的同

了发达国家的领事馆和跨国银行的青睐。

答：正如你所谈到的，百扬大厦代表

时，百扬大厦更强化“软件”的重要性，

我们希望通过持续不断地努力，能够更上

着成都的商务形象。对我们来说，百扬大

为此重金打造了自己的专业物业服务公

一层楼，吸引更多看好西部地区发展、看

厦不仅是位于城市中心的国际商务地标，

司。成都百扬嘉欣物业服务团队秉承“用

好成都未来影响力的优秀企业和机构。

而且是成都城市精神的一种承载。众所周

心服务于心”的公司理念，开创了成都唯 一的访客净化终端、客服专递枢纽等特色 服务。为提升全体工作人员的亲和力，

成都，对话世界！

知，成都的蜀文化囊括了关公的忠诚、诸 问：在成都的国际化进程中，百扬大 厦将起到怎样的作用？

葛亮的智慧、刘备的仁义……时至今日， 成都人仍以之为傲。对于百扬大厦来说，

大楼保安不着传统保安制服，而是身着

答：面对成都这座历史名城的国际

忠诚、智慧、仁义的城市精神，也是当今

西装。我们对每位工作人员进行全方位

化大潮，作为有影响力的本土企业，我们

时代最需要的商务精神。秉承这一理念，

培训，细致到每一个笑容，通过认真落实

有着同样的抱负，更有强烈的责任感投身

我们最近将陆续推出系列商战题材的微电

“用心”的服务理念，赢得了大厦客户的

这一大潮。拔地而起的百扬大厦，在升级

影，通过关羽、诸葛亮、刘备等三国人物

一致好评。

城市一级商圈的同时，更以一种崭新的姿

来重新诠释现代商务精神。希望通过视频

态，代表着成都本土企业走向世界、对话

网站、微博、微信等多渠道传递百扬大厦

世界、融入世界，引领城市的国际化潮

所秉承和推崇的商道精神，让世界更深度

流，运筹城市商务的全新时代。作为这座

地了解百扬大厦，热爱成都这座财富之

城市的崭新商务地标，百扬大厦愿意代表

城、成功之都！

问：百扬大厦甲级写字楼目前客户入 住情况怎样？ 答：大厦于去年5月全面亮相。目前

June 2013

27

INTER VIE W

Weighed down China is addicted to debt and shows few signs of kicking the habit, says Francis Cheung

C

redit can be like steroids for developing countries. Pump loans to businesses and governments, and they will be better able to tap into the latent opportunities of an undeveloped economy.

But as Francis Cheung, head of China and Hong Kong strategy at brokerage CLSA, points out, China has become addicted to debt to fuel growth. And like habitual steroid use, eventually growing debt will threaten the health of the overall system.

Cheung has just authored a report sounding the alarm on how the levels of debt are piling up with no sign of slowing while bringing fewer benefits to the economy. More than half of China’s total debt was added in the past four years, the bulk of which came from shadow banking and bonds. The country’s debt level sits at roughly 205% of GDP as of 2012.

On the sidelines of the CLSA China Forum 2013 in Beijing in May, Cheung spoke to China Economic Review about where the biggest risks lie and possible solutions, even if it’s unlikely they’ll be enacted.

China’s debt problems have been growing for some time but, particularly this year, they have been the subject of more scrutiny. Why do you think that is?

For me, it’s pretty straightforward.

China had a big stimulus in 2009, I understand that. We had a lot of debt, I understand that. But since 2009, we

28

June 2013

Francis Cheung

just kept on adding more debt. In the first quarter, social financing increased 58% year-on-year. I just didn’t get it.

And the [GDP] growth wasn’t growing. So for investors who are shrewder, they’re saying, “Hey, we’re adding more debt but we aren’t seeing more growth. What’s happening here?” For the more widely read public, they’re saying, “Hey, there’s been some big downgrades on China’s debt from Moody’s and Fitch” because the debt is higher than they anticipated.

You keep running harder to stay still now. Ultimately, the simple answer is that it takes more debt to generate growth rate now. And that means the growth rate is probably too high; it’s probably not a sustainable growth rate. The question is what growth rate should we target?

And would the leadership allow for a more sustainable growth rate and let the debt stabilize? Or are they going to

go for a higher growth rate and let the debt build up?

Remember, we’re at about 200% debt to GDP now, and we had a bunch of debt downgrades already. I think that could go to 250% by 2015. Can we maintain a 7% growth rate? That I think is what we’re thinking about internally.

[Some have said] China can grow at 8%. I have no doubt we can grow at 8%.

But tell me what will the debt be if we grow at 8%? I say we do 7%.

The world is a strange place now: Adding debt is not a bad thing. Printing money is not a bad thing. Can you keep it going? Yeah, you can print money now. So you can keep it going. In fact, China is not printing money, all this hot money is coming into the country.

It is the one place not printing money.

China isn’t a rich country. At 250% [debt to GDP ratio], you’re actually pushing US kind of levels. I see it as a big anchor [weighing down the country].

China is headed toward the middle income trap, where wages could be too high to compete in low-end industries but the country is not yet on an equal footing with developed countries to compete at the high end.

What impact will debt have on this?

I did an analysis that said local government debt was serviceable. But because you have spent a lot of money servicing this debt, that’s already a half-a-percent drag on your GDP growth. The more debt you have, the more drag to your

GDP growth because more money is going to service the debt. And that’s why I say the debt is a drag.

Also, if the debt was really productive, I don’t think it would be climbing that fast. I think you’d have a higher growth rate instead of a declining growth rate … It’s only going to get worse. I don’t see marginal efficiency of debt getting better.

What does the middle income trap really tell you? You can’t compete at the low end because your wages are too high, but you can’t compete at the high end because you don’t have the R&D … China needs to be more innovative than anyone else to move out of the middle income trap … China has to become more productive. Productivity has decreased, that’s why the debt is increasing. So we need to reverse that somehow.

You’re saying that amounts spent on servicing higher debt could be spent on encouraging industries based on consumption, for example?

Yes. Health care, pensions. You can invest in consumption, build a social safety net. In the investment [growth model] angle, I’m not really sure what’s left because even the strategic industries are all overcapacity. What likely needs to happen is let the private sector have more places to invest, then they can borrow the money and use it more productively. This will make the [state-owned enterprises] take a big hit, which is dangerous because SOEs aren’t very competitive to begin with, then you can actually have increased productivity. There’s just no magic solution here. This is from research we’ve done a while ago: No country has become rich by growing SOEs.

Countries become rich because they have a dynamic private sector.

You said in your presentation that SOEs are most at risk of bad debt. If the country shifts away from SOEs, won’t that raise that risk of bad debt?

There’s a section of the presentation about how sustainable the debt is, where I review everything … The worst [debt holders] I found were the SOEs because their return on equity was 5% with an 115% debt to equity ratio.

If I were a bank, I wouldn’t be lending to these guys. It isn’t the absolute [amount of debt] I’m worried about, it’s the trend. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC, China’s regulator of SOEs) is quite worried about this, earlier they said they wanted the SOEs to raise profit growth by about 10%. I’m not sure how they can do that. The only way they can do that is if they cut expenses further … You shouldn’t be giving debt to companies that only generate a return on equity of 5%.

Local government debt is a problem, in part, because they have few means of raising money. Could property tax generate the needed revenue?

The property tax for some reason has been very disappointing … It’s not that mechanically hard to do. People say it is, but I question that. But you can always find a way around that by saying that all new transactions are subject to property tax and grandfather in the old ones. But obviously there’s a lot of vested interests [that oppose it].

Especially in Beijing here, we should have been one of the first places to have it but don’t have it. There’s too many vested interest here.

June 2013

29

封面故事

转型与突围 P31 云端突击 P38 挑战全球化 P42 解码微信营销 P46 汽车后市场嬗变

30

June 2013

云端突击 中国企业应抓住云时代的机遇实现转型与升级 文 | 晗军

中

国企业特别是制造业近年来的整体

金蝶国际软件集团董事局主席徐少春

运营成本在不断攀升。过去依赖低

认为，中国企业正处在令人兴奋的移动互

资源使用成本，低价占领全球市场的时代

联网时代和崭新的云管理时代，这也是中

正在快速终结，而其他发展中经济体在不

国企业家感到特别纠结的时代。

断崛起，呈现出更具吸引力的资源优势，

他发现很多企业存在如下弊端：依靠

成熟的制造业面临重新布局。另一方面，

单一商业模式，研发比较封闭，距离客户

全球成熟的发达经济体持续低迷，发达国

很远，运营效率很低，成本很高，缺乏创

家的需求日益萎缩，中国经济大环境的不

新基因，凝聚力不强；企业领导还不习惯

确定因素持续增加，信息化时代竞争加

用更加民主的方式来管理，而是习惯家长

剧，产品同质化现象日趋严重。企业转型

式的管理。

迫在眉睫，却又举步维艰。究竟怎样才能 冲出重围，浴火重生？

“云管理能够帮助我们破解这些纠 结。”徐少春说道。他提到的一份调查资 料显示，80%的财富500强公司主管表

云管理时代

示，在企业范围内的社交化协同能力将是

互联网的快速发展将推动传统行业实

未来成功的关键；56%受访的公司主管相

现升级换代。一系列统计数据佐证了这一

信，云管理将使他们的组织更加灵活、更

趋势。

具竞争力；90%的公司将在2014年前支持

艾瑞咨询数据显示，截至去年12月

基于个人智能终端的企业应用。

底，阿里巴巴小额贷款业务（包括浙江阿

移动互联、社交网络、云计算三大技

里巴巴小额贷款股份有限公司与重庆阿里

术催生的云管理模式正成为促进企业转型

巴巴小额贷款股份有限公司两大实体）

的强劲推动力。徐少春表示，金蝶已将社

累计服务企业超过20万家，户均贷款额

交网络金蝶微博与ERP有机结合，使原本

为67000元。去年，网络购物交易额为

刻板、机械的ERP流程在原有基础上注入

13030.3亿元，占比社会消费品零售总额

了生活化、人性化元素，使企业管理更有

为6.29%；今年第一季度，网络购物交易

趣、更随意、更流畅，这将颠覆现有管理

额为3520.8亿元，占比社会消费品零售总

模式，引导企业员工从被动管理走向主动

额为6.35%。网络购物对实体经济的渗透

管理，不断汇聚正能量，通过每个人的自

越发明显。

我管理来实现组织卓有成效的管理。

“互联网行业的快速发展，对实体经 济以及传统行业的影响也愈来愈大。互联

加强风险管控

网对于实体经济与传统行业的影响主要体

从2008年的金融危机到2010年的欧

现在促进传统行业改变、补充传统行业服

债危机到现在的后危机时代，从世界范围

务盲区、促进线上线下融合三个方面。”

来看，金融危机深层次的影响仍在显现。

艾瑞咨询分析师徐昊表示。

如企业投资信心不足，内需拉动不起来。

云时代起源于云计算机，源于以社交

中国经济增长速度首次跌破“8”，国际货

为主的信息经济逐步转向大数据时代和移

币基金组织对今年的增速预期也放低了。

动互联网时代，而现在管理模式充分运用

国际经济形势萎靡不振，中国经济形势受

社交技术、移动科技、云计算等多种新兴

大环境影响，导致在未来一个时间段内将

技术，因而进入了云管理时代。

会是低增长的态势。

June 2013

31

封面故事

“当前经济环境下，处于转型期的 中国企业需要面对两大挑战：首先是规模 扩大化的趋势，这要求我们在未来10年 甚至更长时间要强化集团管控、实现转型 升级。其次是新技术的创新，包括管理技 术的创新，如移动互联网、社交网络、云 计算等新兴技术的应用，已经在改变传统 的管理模式，这迫使我们要将新技术作为 转型的支撑力量，而不是被新技术所淘 汰。”金蝶软件集团管控高级顾问王晨光 分析道。 在经济下行的情况下，企业的声音 是什么？在去年的一个国企会议上，国资 委财务监督与考核评价局一位处长表示： “过去财务工作更多是以核算和报告为重 点的传统财务管理，未来应更多地向集团 管控、价值管理，共享服务等方向发展。 加强集团管控仍是央企管理的核心。” “欧洲债务危机持续发酵，导致 2012年公司各项成本费用大幅上浮。因 此，公司在费用报销时，增加了重要的一 条，除了财务合规外，就是不能超预算报 销，费用控制额外严格。”中石化集团财

抓住云管理的契机实现转型和突围

务部负责人表示。 格力总裁董明珠去年曾说：“格力电 器的IT规划希望能够给出未来10年的发展

通，与想要了解的相关人和事沟通。还有

务管控首席专家尚惠红说道。

金蝶友商在线，这是金蝶2008年推出的社

战略，要能够支撑格力掌控全中国、乃至

国家5个部委于2008年联合发布《企

海内外所有成员单位的经营状况，加强对

业内部控制基本规范》，要求中国企业按

云技术、移动网络和微博的出现，打

成员单位的管控。”

规范施行，其中包括财务、运营、合规和

破了过去的条条框框，促使沟通更便捷、

风险管理等。

社交更畅达。尚惠红表示，云时代的金蝶

经济下行时期企业面临经营困难：订 单在减少，销售业绩和利润在下滑，费用

王晨光说道：“集团财务管控需要严

成本难以有效控制，大量的应收账款难以

谨、完整、一丝不苟，云管理的工具能够

收回，库存占用大量的资金积压，从而增

让它变得轻松无比。”

加了企业的运营成本。

32

底，对资源进行有效整合。”金蝶集团财

交化ERP产品战略。

新产品特性更加聚焦在“社交、标准、开 放”。 柳工集团正在做内控体制建设，在

尚惠红介绍，金蝶ERP现在名为“

设计体制时主要考虑的问题是要让内控落

根据企业经营所面临的困惑，再看集

社交化ERP”—云管理的转型推动了移

地，而不仅仅是形成纸面文件。柳工集团

团型企业，这一市场上经济主体的发展也

动应用，手机、iPad可以将ERP、财务信

CIO兼总裁助理王庚表示：“我们把内控

存在软肋。集团公司具有规模经济效益、

息、人员信息等随时随地进行业务处理。

提到信息化的角度来看，也就是给信息化

速度效益、网络效益，但集团公司本身由

还有社交应用，前段时间金蝶微博“云之

的发展规划赋予灵魂，基于内控为导向来

于是跨地域，子公司在为集团创造利益的

家”上线，而社交化ERP是基于协同合

建立信息化发展规划。”

同时也带来了管理黑洞，集团总部在创造

作沟通处理，可以将集团财务部全部加入

从目前发展来看，信息化技术将各项

价值时也会有巨大的内耗。面对企业的经

关注，成为一个小组，实时在线与他们沟

指标抽取出来进行内部对比和分析，能够

营压力和自身瓶颈，应该如何应对？

通，也可以对ERP与“云之家”这样的微

承担内控的大部分职责。“当然也有一部

“越是在经济环境不好的时候，越

博产品进行无缝集成。过去要打电话查，

分不可控的风险，信息化还不能够解决，

是要加强企业财务的管控，越是要摸清家

现在通过微博可以实时在线与所在小组沟

只能通过人工来处理。”他说道。

June 2013

同努力。”他说道。

海尔8万名员工已变成2000多个自

中国大量引入外资，也创办了众多的

主经营体，形成了由市场驱动的网状小组

合资企业，希望通过市场换取先进技术。

织，他们不是在领导的组织下工作，而是

但从效果看，似乎并没有换来很多新技

在创造用户价值这个统一的全员契约下工

术，制造企业依然创新乏力。本土企业如

作。海尔赋予这些小组织新的运行机制，

何才能真正具备创新能力？

也即“三权”机制：给员工用人权、分配

早在20年前施振荣就提出了微笑曲线

权和现场决策权。

的理论，直到今天仍然适用，而且更加凸

最主要的工具是青岛管理创新专利

现其深刻的管理内涵。施振荣认为，应该

001号，核心是“战略损益表”。第一项

积极加大对微笑曲线两端（市场和产品研

是围绕用户零距离的战略，看用户资源到

发）的投入。因为市场是创新的龙头，有

底在哪里。第二项是用什么样的组织资源

了市场需求自然就会引发创新，随着对创

来创造用户价值。第三项是在无边界的用

新的不断投入，创新能力就会逐步提升。

户资源下，用什么流程来做。最后是从

他相信，只要找到方法，在二三十年时间

“人单合一”的角度来考察用户资源、无

里持之以恒，中国制造就一定会跻身世界

边界团队和流程是否优化。

一流行列。

再看变革的效果。从2007年起实 施，海尔过去5年的复合利润增长率达到

海尔双赢模式

第一品牌。张瑞敏说过，“没有成功的企

出来的管理实践也越来越受本地企业家的

业，只有失败的经验。企业不管做什么，

关注，如海尔的“人单合一双赢”模式、

只要踏准了时代的节拍，就一定会成功。”

华为基本法、联想的“建班子、定战略、 带队伍”企业管理理念等。

加大两端投入 “中国制造业经过30年的高速发展， 从创业到崛起到行销世界，现在进入了痛

3 8 % 。 今天，海尔已成为世界白色家电

一些优秀的中国企业经过几十年探索

海尔的战略转型方向，从1984年张 瑞敏主政以来，经历了名牌战略阶段、多

海尔集团高级副总裁兼首席财务官谭

元化战略阶段、国家化战略阶段、全球化

丽霞透露，去年上半年大约有33家企业到

品牌战略阶段。海尔的“人单合一双赢”

海尔集团取经，他们普遍陷入高库存、高

管理模式是为了适应全球化品牌战略的需

成本和低利润的困境。

要而提出，这种管理模式是将员工为客户

苦的转型期。”清华大自动化系统集成研

张瑞敏说过：“企业现在唯一能做

创造的价值和客户资源合在一起，以员工

究所所长范玉顺教授表示，“现在是两头

的就是跟上用户点击鼠标的速度。”这正

创造的客户价值体现自身的价值，每个人

受挤，美国、欧洲发展高端制造；而低端

是海尔管理创新希望实现的目标。海尔

成为细分单位经营体的成员。提出的背景

制造在流失，日子不好过。”

“人单合一双赢”模式的本质就是希望能

是全球化的挑战、互联网时代的机遇与挑

金蝶中国PLM总架构师姚文兵分析

够发挥每一个人的才能和价值。互联网时

战、行业之间的激烈竞争等多种因素。

道：“30年来中国制造业之所以所向披

代对于企业的挑战是“无边界”。企业成

海尔也提出了自己的变革措施，如变革模

靡，最根本的原因是成本优势，而近年来

功的标志不是拥有多少资源，而是能够创

式、理念先行、倒三角组织体系、建立自

成本优势已逐步丧失。”

造出多少资源。“人单合一双赢”模式是

主经营体运营管理体系、为人才提供保

“企业应该寻找到生态链条。”姚文

员工和利益相关方为了用户资源的共同目

障、有氛围的企业文化。变革的目的是实

兵指出，中国制造企业数量庞大，但没有

标而工作，为了实现员工与利益相关方的

现战略转型、重塑竞争优势、激发活力。

形成良好的企业生态链，没有对产业链资

共赢，也是一种新的激励文化。

源进行很好的整合，很多制造企业管理比 较粗放，导致整体经济效率偏低。

某种技术的突破将会带来全面的变

“以用户为中心，企业的组织一定

革，中国企业能否抓住云管理的机会，为

要改变。我们在转型过程中，首先把组织

转型和突围助一臂之力？著名管理学家成

中国制造企业一直处在微笑曲线的

从正三角变成倒三角—核心是观念的改

思危指出，根据中国管理模式的三角模

底端。“我们一直想方设法突破，这么多

变，由原来员工听领导，领导要干什么就

型：深邃的管理哲学、先进的管理理论再

年来一直在努力，但产生效果需要较长时

干什么，变成员工听市场的，企业听员工

加上杰出的管理实践，这三者结合起来，

间，需要社会各方面包括教育和法律的共

的。”谭丽霞说道。

才能真正地创造出中国的管理模式。

June 2013

33

COVER STORY

The Transition Puzzle The US will match China on the cost of manufacturing by 2015. Companies in both countries must adapt, write Ivo Naumann and Steve Maurer of AlixPartners

34

June 2013

I

t happens regularly in virtually every segment of every industry: A newcomer arrives, offers an advantage that competitors in the segment can’t match and rapidly begins to build both its business and market share.

What often follows, however, is also predictable: The market adapts, the advantage diminishes and the newcomer finds that it is in a vulnerable, rather than valued, situation.

Early in the last decade, China became both the disrupting newcomer in the global manufacturing sector and the attractive, often low-priced, supplier – so much so that in the West “offshoring” became nearly synonymous with “made in China.” Two years ago, however, the sea change toward China began to equalize. In fact, new AlixPartners research reveals that – according to current trends such as wage inflation in China and exchange rates that impact total landed costs (that is, all aspects of bringing a product to its point-of-sale) – the US is on track to achieve cost parity with China as a base for manufacturing operations by 2015. In other words, on average, manufacturing an item in the US to be sold there will cost the same amount as manufacturing it in China and shipping it back to the US.

doing business with China, those issues include having to deal with a long supply chain, the need to often carry more inventory and the risk of obsolescence when a product takes a month or longer to be shipped across the ocean.

Cost parity between China and the US would change that dynamic dramatically. It makes executives question where it is best to invest – and do business – in the future.

It’s already shifting executive attitudes. AlixPartners also recently conducted a survey of 137 top manufacturing executives in the US across a wide range of more than 10 different industries. Overall, 84% said the decision to “nearshore” (in other words, source from the Americas) is important to their respective companies, up from 53% in last year’s survey. Nearly half of those surveyed view nearshoring as an opportunity, and 90% of that amount either have nearshored or expect to nearshore in the next two to three years.

There are two important lessons to be drawn from this research: One for US companies considering a shift from offshoring in China to nearshoring in, for instance, Mexico and another for Chinese companies looking to remain competitive when low wages are no longer the main driver.

The problems with cost parity

US firms, look before you leap

When companies in one country can offer the kind of significantly lower manufacturing costs that China has been able to provide, a number of issues are often overlooked as “the cost of doing business.” For US companies

For companies considering nearshoring, the most attractive advantages are generally lower freight costs and the ability to move products to market faster. Perhaps the most eye-opening news from our recent survey is that

June 2013

35

COVER STORY

executives said the US is an equally attractive location for nearshoring as Mexico is.

There is, however, a significant caveat when interpreting this research – Average statistics for industries or manufacturing overall should not be applied blindly when making specific decisions. Instead, a full analysis must be done of the product type, location, transportation and other variables affecting total landed costs, including duties and the expense of inventory in transit.

Assuming that all instances will adhere to industry-wide statistics when making decisions regarding products and services illustrates the inherent danger in not “looking before you leap.” Not all products and situations adhere ot the averages. A deeper analysis of the data shows that China still

36

June 2013

has – and is expected to continue to have – the cost advantage in items such as machined aluminium parts, plastic molded parts, non-denim slacks and knit apparel, to name a few.

Other factors to consider before making manufacturing changes include those inherent in switching sources of manufacturing, such as the capital hurdles involved in tooling and transition, exchange rates and regulatory approvals. China, for its part, still has advantages it can hone to counter – and perhaps blunt – current trends.

For Chinese companies, more than the price must be right Low labor costs, combined with a business-friendly regulatory environment and an abundance of both skilled and unskilled workers, have long been a boon to the Chinese economy.

In certain areas, Chinese companies are likely to continue to have a cost advantage. In others, however, potential cost parity will lead corporate decision makers to look at other means of differentiating their business and will force the conversation to shift beyond cost and toward the larger issue of overall value.

This is especially significant on the global stage where both India’s rupee and Mexico’s peso have weakened, reducing those countries’ costs relative to both Chinese and US production.

Our research suggests that Chinese companies would do well to quickly institute measures that simultaneously distance themselves from perceptions they are “lowest cost providers” and demonstrate their potential strength higher up the value chain in areas such as manufacturing design support.

To do this, however, requires overcoming the reservations that many US companies have about sharing trade secrets and intellectual property with Chinese companies. Even the most ethical Chinese companies will need to overcompensate when protecting customer proprietary data to overcome the reputation that many Chinese companies have for unscrupulously copying parts and products. To do so will take time, which is why the need to take the next step and become a valued supplier partner cannot start too soon.

AlixPartners is a global firm offering advisory services including enterprise improvement, turnaround and restructuring, financial advisory services and information management services.

Ivo Naumann and Steve Maurer are managing directors at AlixPartners, a global business advisory firm. Naumann heads the firm’s activities in mainland China, and Maurer leads the firm’s manufacturing practice for the Americas.

June 2013

37

封面故事

挑战全球化 通过跨国并购实现进军全球市场的宏大目标 文 | 铁琴

虽

然中国企业“走出去”已历经30

式”的概念，这也正是联想国际化10年的

诚沟通，杨元庆克服困难坚持学习英语，

个年头，但仍习惯将“本土”和

经验总结。联想模式包含了屋顶图、双模

经过数载摸索、学习、沉淀，最后一鸣惊

“海外”划分为泾渭分明的区域，将“本

式、双拳战略、赢文化、4P文化、文化鸡

人；2000年秋天，联想高管们飞往美国

土”视为管理、决策和研发的大本营，将

尾酒、六字方针、创新三角、LEC领导架

考察学习，试图到大洋彼岸的硅谷寻求答

“海外”定义为开拓资源和销路的新空

构、拐大弯策略和信息化建设等10多条经

案。

间。近几年，随着自身产品与竞争力的显

验。

人们总习惯性地以2004年12月8日收

著增强，不少优秀的中国企业开始进行真

联想具有很强的学习精神，像吸水海

购IBM PC部门作为联想国际化的起点。

正的全球化资源配置和布局，通过“走出

绵般拼命学习，好学习、懂学习，自信而

也有那些对联想历史稍有了解的人，可能

去”获取综合竞争力，实现从“国际化”

不自卑地向标杆企业讨教，这无疑成为它

会把时间推前到2000年9月，将杨元庆及

向“全球化”的转变。

迅速成长的基础。柳传志当年穿着旧西装

联想高管团队的“美国硅谷之行”视为扬

“世界正在变平，中国也正在向全球

参加IBM在北京的盛会，那份莫名激动和

帆远航的起锚之时。然而事实皆非如此。

最大经济体前进，这不是会不会的问题，

希望心情至今难忘；为充分直接交流与坦

张小平研究发现，其实早在联想成立之

而仅是时间的问题。与此同时，越来越多 的中国企业正在步入全球化的新阶段，面 临的挑战也是巨大的。” 西门子中国总裁 兼CEO程美玮表示。 天津聚龙集团董事长杨学犟说道： “我们始终坚信一点：全球化是一张单程 票，必须坚定地走下去，只有在世界舞台 上经受历练，才能真正获得全球化的竞争 力。” 跨国并购是中国企业“全球化”的重 要途径之一。根据私募通统计，今年4月 共完成6起跨国并购，其中海外并购4起， 外资并购2起。4月跨国并购共有5起案例 披露金额，披露总金额为2.33亿美元。其 中，披露交易金额最大的是中石化冠德收 购荷兰Vesta

Terminals。该案例是中石

化冠德继完成收购印尼PT. West Point之 后的又一海外并购案例。Vesta Terminals主要经营石油产品和生物燃料的仓储 码头，该项收购有利于中石化冠德提升经 营海外仓储的经验，进而有机会实现其散 装液体仓储码头业务在欧洲的扩张。

联想模式 联想并购IBM PC是一个著名案例。 《再联想》作者张小平提出了“联想模

38

June 2013

越来越多的中国企业正在步入全球化的新阶段

初，就具备了“国际化基因”。他引证的

所以“联想必须保持更为开放、更为积极

行、执迷不悟，最终结果可想而知。联想

例子是1988年4月18日，那时联想早已

和更为敏锐的姿态”。与高调的作风、常

总是及时调整战略，善于总结经验教训，

完成了起先承诺的“年产值200万元”的

处在舆论的风口浪尖的处境不同，联想也

总能恰到好处地掌握着进退的节奏感，深

“宣誓”目标，柳传志将政府官员、公司

非常注重内在的修炼，重视打造扎实的管

知分寸。前提一定是企业领导者及其高管

客户和媒体记者都请进人民大会堂，当众

理系统。1990年就出台了《联想集团管理

团队的睿智、敏感与前瞻思维。

宣布了“进军海外誓师大会”。联想制定

大纲》，“将联想发展成跨国集团”被写

走出中国迈向世界，将“联想”延伸

了详细的“三步走”战略：第一步，进军

入大纲，并从制度到行动上予以保障。4

到全球市场的每一角落。其实跨国收购、

香港，建立一家贸易型公司，用以积累资

年后，也就是“誓师大会”后的第六年，

并购不算难，满世界去设立分厂、分公司

金，了解市场，探索国际化经验，为海外

联想在香港成功上市，正式进驻这个桥头

也不算难，最难是在文化的融合、人才之

扩张做准备；第二步，建立起一家包括研

堡。

间的沟通融和、团队彼此间的磨合；只有

发中心、生产基地和国际营销网络，集研

香港只是联想国际化征程的第一

企业文化融合好了，才能通行无阻地遨游

究、生产和销售的技、工、贸一体的跨国

站，至于随后的故事，很多人都耳熟能

世界。而联想的国际化提供了借鉴，他们

公司；第三步，形成规模经济，努力跻身

详。2003年，联想将“Legend”的旧

已取得初步的宝贵经验。

发达国家计算机产业行列。

Logo换为全新的“Lenovo”。当年底，

联想并购IBM PC业务后，东西方文

联想的宏伟蓝图多少有点理想化色

正在寻觅海外并购契机的联想收到IBM抛

化的冲突和矛盾、激荡和碰撞势必扑面而

彩，这也与它的产品、受众、专营渠道以

出的橄榄枝，此后经过一年多的论证与谈

来。但联想并没有强制性地用一种文化替

及品牌定位有关。与华为不同，联想做的

判，联想终于以12.5亿美元的价格收购

代另一种文化或者偏重某种文化，这就为

是庞大、活跃、时尚的PC及互联网市场，

IBM PC业务。

融合提供了先决条件。在融合过程中，联 想提出“坦诚、尊重、妥协”的六字方

宝贵经验 同样是“引进来，走出去”。联想

针，并且将IBM讲究创新、尊重员工、服 务客户、追求卓越等因素吸收进来。

的个案让人联想到华为、海尔、TCL与中

杨元庆在多个不同的场合曾经说

兴，也包括上汽、平安、中铝、中海油。

过：“大杂烩的公司不可能成为伟大的公

尽管人们不得不承认，在中国企业的国际

司，联想在中国成功的文化基础和业务模

化大潮中，成功者凤毛麟角，失败者不计

式基础是联想未来的根。”

其数，但成败之间，前述这些企业有很多

2011年9月8日，联想正处于国际化

值得学习与品鉴的地方。例如张小平指

的上升期内，柳传志在这一天表情轻松而

出，与联想、TCL通过海外并购的跨越式

语气坚定地说：“我很慎重很认真地宣

激进做法不同，海尔采取相对温和的国际

布，联想国际化已经成功。”

化路径：自建为主，并购为辅。华为与中

进入全球市场后怎么办？“机遇稍纵

兴这两家电信设备商也是稳健、谨慎的渐

即逝，变幻莫测的全球市场更是如此，把

进式国际化的践行者。华为董事长任正非

握住市场的动向是为了掌握扩张的最佳时

深谙“农村包围城市”的精妙，这样做既

机。要在国际市场上取得成功，必然要随

能避免华为因国际化管理和运营经验的不

时关注市场动向，合理预测并牢牢把握住

足而带来的损失，又真正接触了当地市场

机会。在信息时代，中国企业在此方面需

和消费者，为以后深耕市场、开疆辟土打

要投入更大的精力，合理有效地利用有价

下基础。

值的信息，通过研究产生效应。” 罗兰贝

30多年来，中国许多企业一度辉煌

格高级合伙人刘文波说道。

却又难以避免失败的命运，大多数与速度

完成国际化的中国企业还须具备怎样

有关，不是“快死”就是“慢死”。企业

的条件才堪称“伟大的公司”？“若要成

发展速度的快与慢、脉动节奏的拍子，那

就伟大公司要关注三点：首先要始终关注

是非常讲究谋略及境界，因为时时刻刻都

和激励优秀的人才，第二要做到有利润的

与市场、行业、国家和世界有关。而企业

高质量增长，第三要打造卓越的品牌。”

知进退是最难的，如果企业领导者一意孤

程美玮说道。

June 2013

39

COVER STORY

Backed into a corner After the Alibaba-Weibo deal, necessity will breed innovation at Tencent

T

he news of e-commerce giant Alibaba Group buying a chunk of the Sina Weibo microblogging service shook the Chinese tech industry more than any deal since last year’s online video merger of Youku and Tudou.

Alibaba and Sina will make for formidable partners and likely have other industry heavyweights on the backfoot.

Alibaba is the country’s largest e-commerce company with a near monopoly on the industry through its Taobao and Tmall online sales platforms. Weibo, owned by Sina, is China’s leading social media service.

Notably under threat are Tencent Holdings and Baidu.com. The AlibabaSina deal will better be able to oppose the rise of Tencent’s social chat service, WeChat, which has been a runaway hit for the company that previously relied on a more traditional instant messaging service and online gaming. Baidu, the country’s leading search engine, may find a rival to its dominance in online advertising after the Alibaba and Weibo tie-up. The new partnership will force both companies to adjust strategies.

Baidu’s main moneymaker is advertising – it holds 30.9% market share in online ad revenue as of 2012 – associated with its lock on the search engine market. But e-commerce No. 1 Alibaba is also deceptively the No. 2 online ad player with a 15.3% market share.

The fear for Baidu is that Sina might limit its access to real-time searches of Weibo content, as investment bank

40

June 2013

Citi pointed out in a recent note. (With commanding 80% market share in search, Baidu is unlikely to be barred from Sina content outright, however.)

Alibaba could also direct its vendors to advertise more on Weibo and could try to make the microblog service a more prominent entry point to Taobao and Tmall rather than Baidu searches.

Tencent, by contrast, mostly faces a threat to its WeChat social chatting service. That service, which allows instant messaging with friends that is more intimate, is gaining users far faster than Weibo and appears to have stolen the online momentum that Weibo previously had. The Alibaba-Sina deal, however, means it will no longer be only WeChat that wins.

Both Tencent and Sina have struggled to monetize their respective social

media services and now Sina will clearly take the lead. The Alibaba deal will bring Sina US$380 million in ad and e-commerce revenue over the next three years.

Baidu’s challenges may seem distant from Tencent’s, but the goal for all companies is similar: attracting users who have a finite amount of time to be online, regardless of whether they are shopping for handbags, watching “The Big Bang Theory” or chatting with friends. Each firm wants to maximize the time spent on their service and then try to get the most money out of those users. The Alibaba-Sina deal will attempt to fence users further into the two sizeable realms of each company.

Tencent and Baidu will need to take very different approaches in this fight for user time and money. Baidu has

already decided that rather than going head-to-head with Alibaba and Sina, it will bet on online video as a way to advertise. The search company consolidated its control of video streaming site iQiyi in 2012 and announced that it would buy the video unit of PPStream.

Baidu will go up against a different set of players in video. The recent deals will give Baidu a combined market share of 16.1%, leapfrogging to the No. 2 spot behind Youku-Tudou with 21.5%. PPS is also strong in mobile streaming, an underdeveloped area.

Unlike Baidu, Alibaba and Sina, Tencent does not have the option to look outward and partner up with other players. Tencent will continue to make small acquisitions, but there aren’t clear deals to be that would come

close to rivaling Alibaba and Sina.

Instead, the company must look inward to innovate and get netizens to spend time and money on their services, rather than merely buying users.

The number of WeChat downloads continues to grow, so the key will be making money off of that expanding user base. The company is taking steps to do that by adding the ability to make purchases from within the app.

That alone won’t be enough. Tencent has its work cut out for it, with less than 5% share of both business-to-consumer online sales and the advertising market in 2012.

But if any company can innovate itself out of a tight spot, it’s Tencent.

The firm has proven to be one of China’s most dynamic internet companies.

The firm first succeeded with its traditional instant messaging service QQ but later found purchase in gaming.

As online gaming growth slowed, Tencent again delivered with WeChat.

Two years ago, few would have predicted the runaway success of the mobile social messaging service given the newfound dominance Weibo. The app has the potential to go global, which would be a first for a Chinese internet service.

Unable to buy its way to growth like Baidu, Tencent has both the track record and the need to innovate. The Alibaba-Weibo tie-up may have been the most recent event to shake up the Chinese internet. But Tencent may be the company to watch for the next major internet game changer.

全球十大顶级房产商竞相首秀 LuxProperty第十届上海臻品物业(春)私人品鉴会 圆满举办 作为中国最高档的顶级物业私人展览，LuxProperty 2013第十届上海臻品物业(春)私人品鉴会日前于 2013年4月13-14日两天在上海美术馆顶层K5会所成功举办。 全球十大知名地产商纷纷将本届LuxProperty臻品展作为亮相中国市场的独家首秀平台，带来 了精心挑选的臻品豪宅项目，引起现场买家的强烈兴趣和关注。包括堪称全球十大地产开发商之一的 英国最大开发商Barratt邦瑞、澳洲Sunland、香港兴业集团、美国AEG集团、塞浦路斯Pafilia、巴 哈马Bahama等纷纷展示其屡获殊荣的旗舰住宅。 两天内，LuxProperty臻品展共有725位上海高净值财富买家到场参观，现场达成意向成交超过 2亿元人民币，每个展台平均累计近100位潜在买家。根据主办方的现场调查及访问，发现国内高端买 家对于海外臻品华宅的购买意愿非常热切，每套总价为60-120万美金的项目倍受关注，而主要热门 国家仍为英国、美国和澳大利亚。绝大多数买家表示购房的目的在于投资、子女教育和移民。 经过五年的不断创新、求变、升华，LuxProperty臻品展业已成为全球房地产业首屈一指的顶 级私人展览，为高端买家和奢华物业搭建最佳交流平台。第十届LuxProperty臻品展再次打破普通展 览的常规格局，让每位到场贵宾在优雅奢华的氛围中寻找到属于自己的梦想居所。

June 2013

41

封面故事

解码微信营销 这一创新产品有待形成可盈利的商业模式 文 | 晗军

当

你在公共场所看到有人在用手机不

服务对短信的替代作用非常显著。微博、

体中文语言界面，增加中国香港、中国澳

停地摇晃着，可能意味着此人正在

微信的信息发布功能促使用户不再订购短

门、中国台湾、美国、日本五个地区的用

使用微信的“摇一摇”功能寻找附近的朋

信类信息服务，使得此类短信量同比下跌

户绑定手机号，加入英文语言界面；12月

友。上线仅两年，这款由腾讯公司推出的

18.5%。

实现支持全球100个国家的短信注册，语

新产品就迅速走俏。

微信使用流量即便按照每兆1元钱的

人们似乎普遍相信，中国企业缺乏

高资费计算，也可发送接收上千条文字小

创新能力，中国新媒体的商业模式均从美

消息，而手机短信收费为每条0.1元。微信

《纽约时报》在一篇文章中将微信评

国复制而来。但微信的横空出世打破了这

可以即时发送文字、语音、图片和视频，

价为“正积极尝试扭转中国本土互联网产

一“魔咒”。

而短信和彩信则只能发送文字和图片。

品无法推向世界的命运”。WeChat在美

和地区，拥有15种不同语言的版本。

在微信之前，国外的产品进不来、

“如果微信不是以代替短信的方式

国拥有非常好的用户口碑。BDA咨询公司

本土的产品出不去，中国互联网产品形同

出现，很难达到现在目前的规模。”唱吧

的董事长邓肯·克拉克（Duncan Clark）

“孤岛”已经好多年。上线两年迅速崛起

CEO陈华认为。

认为，微信打破了长期以来西方对“中国

的微信成为罕见的突围者，而且用户每天 都在飞速增长。

微信于2011年1月上线，积累1亿用

制造”的刻板成见。据微信项目总监刘乐

户花了14个月，从1亿用户增长至2亿用

君介绍，微信将在美国、东南亚等地建设

今年1月15日，微信团队在其腾讯官

户花了6个月，而从2亿用户增长到3亿用

数据中心，以加快响应速度，进一步提升

方微博上宣布其用户突破3亿人。而据艾瑞

户，仅用了4个月。这表明微信进入了用

用户体验。

咨询统计，截至去年底，中国移动、中国

户增长爆发期。资深微信营销专家程小永

“除了语言的不同，和一些实在绕不

联通和中国电信三大运营商的移动用户量

和李国建预计，今年年底将达到5亿用户。

过去的、非常细微的本地化改造，其他的

分别为7.1亿、2.4亿和1.6亿。（见图表） 此消彼长，微信对移动运营商的短信

几乎都是一模一样。”“微信之父”—

进军国际市场

腾讯公司高级副总裁张小龙表示，“其实

业务构成了实质性的冲击。国家工信部今

2011年4月，微信以英文名WeChat

这一点西方著名企业早就做到了。我们希

年3月表示，微博、微信等新型移动信息

正式进入国际市场；同年10月开始支持繁

望做一款产品，超出了创作地的文化因

单位：亿 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 来源：艾瑞咨询

42

言版本不断增加……已遍及100多个国家

June 2013

素，成为全球通用的一种文化符号。” “以上只是世界各地人们使用微信 （WeChat）的一个缩影，但却展示了微 信有着深远的民族意义及对企业来说非常 实际的现实意义。这不仅意味着，第一款 来自中国的移动互联网产品受到了全世界 的青睐，更意味着，以后中国企业进行 全球营销，通过我们自己的微信就可以 了。”程小永和李国建在他们合著的《微 信营销解密》中如此写道。

基于交友文化 媒体评论员郑渝川认为，微信的传播 基于交友文化，可以导入QQ好友、手机 好友，可以找出身边的人，让用户之间产 生信赖，而这是微博以及互联网时代的其 他通讯、社交工具所无法赋予的特性。

微信的传播基于交友文化

程小永和李国建指出，“微信改变 我们的生活”、“微信改变企业的营销环

如何实现盈利

统数据显示，今年2月，微信在App端月

境”，而“之所以会被改变，是因为企业

虽然一些支持者将微信说得神乎其

度使用时长达到2.6亿小时，新浪微博达

目标用户的沟通交友方式、获取信息及服

神，但也不乏质疑之声。浙江传媒学院互

到1.3亿小时。新浪微博去年全年收入为

务的方式改变了。每一个新媒体的出现，

联网与社会研究中心秘书长杨吉博士就发

6600万美元，微博广告收入占比77%。截

都会带来企业营销方式的巨变。微信也不

问道，微信的O2O能否形成闭环，它的

至去年12月，新浪微博注册用户达到5.03

例外，它已经拥有了近4亿用户，而且专为

网络隐私和安全隐患如何防范？企业可以

亿。而目前已拥有3亿用户的微信还远远看

企业提供了公众平台和技术开发平台，企

利用wifi免费地向众多关注它的客户发布

不到盈利的前景。

业可以在微信上完成从市场调研到客户管

信息，但会不会因此不加节制逐渐演变成

在传出微信收费的消息后，腾讯公司

理、客户服务、销售支付、老客户维护、

信息骚扰？企业该如何协调高昂的信息回

迅疾予以否认。微信的3亿多中国用户在4

新客户挖掘等的所有工作。”

复成本和客户较高期望值之间的关系？还

月中旬收到微信团队的留言：“近期在微

“微信已经成为企业精准营销的核

有最重要一点，微信具备了一套完整、成

博上流传的‘微信要对用户收费’，纯属

心。”皮皮精灵助理总裁、炎黄网络创始

熟的商业模式了吗？它和其他社会化媒体

有人恶意造谣，请大家不要相信谣言。微

人管鹏表示。

比，是互补还是取代，它真的就有过人的

信绝对不会对用户收费。”

“微信在满足人类沟通需求基础上建

吸金能力吗？

然而，宣誓绝不收费的微信怎样才能

立起的熟人社交模式与现有的所有媒介都

郑渝川表示，借助微信创建的更强用

实现盈利呢？据张小龙透露，微信团队监

不一样，它的出现足以变更我们一贯的营

户黏性和更高信赖度，微信营销浮出水面

测的数据显示，微信朋友圈每天的发帖量

销思路。”《创业家》杂志社社长牛文文

也就顺理成章。他指出：“问题在于，从

早已大大超过了微博最鼎盛的时期。程小

乐观地预计，“微信营销适合于所有想在

一般意义上的电子商务，到手机客户端营

永和李国建将微信的“朋友圈”称为中国

移动互联网时代抓住机会的个人和企业。”

销，再到微博营销、微信营销，以及五花

版的图片社交应用Instagram。“那么谁

安居客CEO梁伟平表示看好微信，

八门、形形色色的‘云营销’新概念，让

会是下一个国内版的Instagram呢？微信

因为创造了一种原来没有的体验，而人们

企业家、营销人、商业研究者应接不暇。

朋友圈其实是最有希望的一个。”他们写

需要获得精神上的愉悦感。

很多华丽的营销新概念背后，难以掩盖的

道。

“微信与新浪微博在移动端相较其他

是乏善可陈的应用，概念很快过时，让好

“微信已经成为移动端的重要入口，

社交App优势突出。”艾瑞咨询分析师杨

些企业为之投入的巨资白白打了水漂。从

如何在即将成为开放平台的微信上创业，

雪斌表示，“微信和新浪微博满足了网民

这个意义上讲，宣传推广微信营销，应客

并形成有价值的商业模式，是我们风险投

的沟通、分享等基本社交需求，对其他社

观务实的判断其生命周期和应用潜力。”

资者非常关注的。”达晨创投合伙人赵小

交类App形成使用时长上的威胁。”

艾瑞咨询移动端网民网络行为监测系

兵表示。

June 2013

43

COVER STORY

The trillion-renminbi question China’s leaders are laying the groundwork to enact difficult reforms

C

hina’s top leaders gathered together on April 25 for what state media called a “special session” on the economy. Led by Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping, the seven members of China’s highest governing body discussed how the country could ensure continued steady economic growth and stimulate domestic consumption. They parted ways agreeing to boost growth but to do so carefully, avoiding aggressive credit and investment growth that could bring on new financial risks.

These broad platitudes were in line with earlier remarks by top leaders, but there was a renewed sense of urgency following the release of disappointing economic data for the first quarter.

While GDP expanded only 7.7% in the quarter, new credit was higher than

44

June 2013

expected. That indicated the country was earning less GDP bang for its stimulus buck, in the words of China strategist Patrick Chovanec.

Some people attributed slower growth in the first quarter to the Chinese government’s efforts to rebalance the economy – defined as increasing levels of consumption, lowering investment in real estate and accelerating growth in the service sector. “We need to sacrifice short-term growth for the purposes of reforms and structural adjustments,” central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuang said on April 20.

But a closer look showed that was not the case. The outlook for Chinese economic rebalancing actually worsened in the first quarter relative to the first half of 2012, Nicholas Borst, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for Inter-

national Economics in Washington, DC, wrote in a recent blog.

Last October, Borst and his colleagues identified five main indicators that they track to determine whether the Chinese economy is rebalancing: disposable income, real bank deposit rates, residential real estate investment, loans to small businesses and the growth speed of the service sector.

In the first quarter, two of the five indicators received negative marks: Urban disposable income grew slower than GDP, and residential real estate investment grew rapidly in the first quarter of this year, both signs of an increasingly negative economic picture. “One should not put too much stock in the data from any one quarter, but it is hard to make the argument that the Chinese economy is rebalanc-

ing quickly,” Borst wrote.

Courage of convictions It’s clearly a bad sign that the government hasn’t begun rebalancing the economy, despite much talk of its necessity. But it’s still too early to condemn them for lack of effort.

Xi and his second-in-command, Premier Li Keqiang, took up the top government posts in March, too late to influence the course of first-quarter growth. These men clearly understand that their economic model is losing steam, and they are better positioned than their predecessors to make the necessary changes.

Xi also remarked at the Boao Forum in Hainan province in early April that China is looking to rein in growth to sustainable levels and balance economic prosperity with other issues such as environmental protection. And in his first press conference, Premier Li invoked “reform” more than 20 times. Li has repeatedly reiterated that reform has been China’s biggest dividend, writes Damien Ma, a fellow at The Paulson Institute in Chica-

go. “With many arguing inside China that the reform momentum has been sapped, the new leadership is clearly intent on reinvigorating it,” Ma wrote.

To reduce the role of investment in the economy and empower consumers, Xi and his cohorts must trim back state monopolies and allow market forces to distribute capital to the parts of the economy where it can be used most efficiently, rather than to the parts of the economy that are the best connected.

Cutting powerful vested interests off from cheap sources of capital will be a painful process. But most Chinese say Xi has the political courage and capital to pull off such a dramatic change. Xi has launched an ambitious corruption crackdown, and he is leading the government in a quiet and sustained effort to iron out local government debt problems and bring a ballooning shadow banking sector and wealth management products into the fold.

In addition, Xi looks more able than his predecessor to bring certain interest groups into line, such as state-

owned enterprises. Political analysts say that the reduction this year of the Politburo Standing Committee from nine to seven members and the shift from a roughly 50-50 split between factions to a committee dominated

by Xi’s princeling party will give him greater ability to enact more controversial reforms.

China does have sustainable sources of growth to tap, but the government must have political courage to scale back its controls on the economy.

These reforms will include embracing creative destruction and allowing inefficient businesses to fail, argues Chovanec, the China strategist.

In a speech in Shanghai last August, Chovanec pointed out that the main driver of China’s growth since Reform and Opening in the late 1970s was not central policies, but the government merely getting out of people’s way – allowing them to sell their extra produce, start a small business or own their own property.

Liberalizing still-tightly controlled portions of China’s economy can bring similar dividends in the future.

“There’s a huge amount of untapped potential in the Chinese economy if there is the courage to adapt and embrace it,” Chovanec said.

This will be an uncomfortable process, but there is no other good option. The rhetoric of China’s top brass shows they understand this, and they are trying to prepare their colleagues for the transition. Premier Li said much the same thing in a briefing at the Great Hall of the People in March. “It’s about cutting power, it’s a self-imposed revolution,” he said. “It will be very painful and even feel like cutting one’s wrist.”

June 2013

45

封面故事

汽车后市场嬗变 想要成功实现转型并不容易 文 | 胡莹 林瑜瑶

汽

车后市场巨大的潜在机会和混乱的

辅。而美国汽车维修配件占据商场的重要

决的关键在于缺乏大体量的龙头企业，伴

早期发展格局让许多人看到了商

柜台。美国人动手修理自己的代步工具极

随着汽车后市场规模的攀升，势必会出现

机。在发达国家，汽车售后服务市场是整

为平常，相形之下，中国人动手拆奢侈的

一些品牌化的连锁企业，借品牌的渗透力

个汽车产业链中最稳定的利润来源，约占

宝贝，似乎有些不可思议。汽车流通业的

重塑后市场竞争生态。同时，连锁模式的

总利润的60%至70%，而中国目前的汽车

业态相对单一。

优势意味着规模采购和统一配送，为加盟

后市场比重不到30%。汽车供应量持续增

同样不难理解汽车后市场制造企业格

企业减少因熟悉市场环境、搜索政策法规

长，竞争日趋激烈，新车销售利润将不断

局。由于维修和流通企业都没有形成大规

等造成的时间与资金成本等，马太效应适

缩水。而利润丰厚的汽车后市场已成为潜

模的连锁，无论是质量控制能力还是动力

用于汽车后市场行业。当扩张的达到了企

力十足的蓝海，市场格局将发生翻天覆地

都十分不足。因此，汽车后市场制造企业

业竞争的边界之后，成功的企业进入殊死

的变化。

也呈现出两极分化的格局。受控于主机厂

搏杀之中，在填满后市场业态的同时，也

的原厂件，在汽车行业近乎严苛的质量要

会大量挤掉落后者。“快鱼吃慢鱼”既适

求下，原厂件的质量水平相对较高；而非

用于曾经的白色家电行业，同样适用于发

原厂件产品质量诚信成为严峻问题。

展初期的汽车后市场业。

现状与转型 与欧美眼里的代步工具不同，由于 尚未全面普及（上海市仅20%家庭拥有私

中国社会科学院《2012-2013中国

尽管业内的绝大多数人都对后市场连

家车），汽车在许多中国人眼中仍然是身

汽车社会蓝皮书》预测，5年后中国家庭

锁大品牌的诞生抱有积极乐观的态度，也

份与地位的象征，豪车更是人们炫耀的资

汽车拥有量将达40辆/百户，10年左右将

不乏企业进行深度尝试，美国汽车售后服

本。因此大多数车主并不在意养车成本，

达到或接近60辆/百户。当汽车成为大众消

务著名品牌NAPA几进几出中国正是这种

汽车维修保养基本在4S店内完成。随着家

费品后，必然会推动汽车后市场的根本变

尝试的结果。然而，由于汽车后市场体量

用轿车普及和车主低龄化，家庭对于养车

化。而这一市场的转型，既带有中国一般

的增长是缓慢的过程，中国汽车制造质量

成本越来越敏感，超过3年保修期的车主越

产业转型的特征，又多了一些独特性。维

的提升也如是。在供需双方信息高度不对

来越关注汽车后市场的价格和质量。

修企业的发展将与商业模式创新、技术创

称的情况下，企业确实能够通过品牌获得

汽车后市场企业主要包括制造业、

新和质量改善交织在一起；而难以避免的

消费者的信赖，但企业品牌的建立却又以

流通企业和维修企业，其中维修企业主

转型还包括电子商务时代线上业务对线下

消费者群体扩大和消费文化变化为前提，

要分为两大部分，一是4S店，二是路边

模式的冲击。

一个死循环自此诞生。打破死循环的药方

店。4S店业务来源除了保修和事故车业务 外，就是经济实力相对雄厚的“奢侈品”

车后市场质量诚信陷阱，正是凭借高度一

拥有者的替换件和保养业务。而路边店业

商业模式创新与连锁企业涌现。目

务主要来自经济实力差的低端消费者，其

前，后市场最突出的质量问题是假冒伪劣

信息技术与电子商务的兴起。当今社

替换件主要来自于汽配城。因此，后市场

产品，体现在制造、流通和维修等方方面

会已进入了高速发展的通讯时代，线下到

隐约呈现出一种简单的极端化局势，处于

面。由于中国汽车独立后市场中配件制造

线上购买方式的转变正日益渗透到每一个

中间过渡阶段的企业规模相对较少。同

企业整体质量管理能力偏低，尽管汽配城

行业。美国汽车后市场中，电子商务的分

时，美车饰、黄帽子、美国NAPA（全国

已经完成了从路边店向有形市场转型，却

量也在日益加大。在中国，虽然出于专业

汽车配件联盟）和Autozone等相对规范的

仍然处于无序管理状态中，虽然4S店能够

服务需求和购物习惯等原因，传统店铺模

品牌汽车后市场流通企业受到市场挤压，

保证质量，但是价格居高不下，而路边店

式仍然占据主导地位，但电子商务模式发

经营大多出现水土不服。

还处于集贸市场阶段。因此，汽车后市场

展势头强劲。

中国与美国汽车后流通企业的区别 非常明显。中国汽车后市场流通企业多以 提供美容装饰件为主，而以维修保养件为

46

在于商业模式创新。当年，NAPA走出汽

品牌与电商

June 2013

可以说是经营无序，假冒伪劣、劣币逐良 币的现象屡见不鲜。 鉴于当前汽车后市场鱼龙混杂问题解

体化的商业模式。

与传统购物模式有所不同，当进场、 浏览、购买、支付和物流等活动都以网络 为载体进行之时，企业可以用低廉的成本

大多数汽车维修保养都在4S店内完成

记录和反馈交易。这种实时更新的数据库

加上尚不成熟的消费者群体。克服困难，

态。如市场发展初期，由于标准匮乏、诚

正日益构成企业科学决策的基础，也能在

固然需要创新和创业精神，但想凭借一方

信问题严峻、企业规模小，纵向联合的高

很大程度上解决当前汽车后市场鱼目混珠

的力量重塑后市场环境，难度可想而知。

度一体化能够最大化企业所提供的产品和

的乱象。

而战略联盟可以整合多方的优势资源，

服务价值。而随着市场越来越成熟，仅通

网络交易积累形成区域汽车品牌数据

实现灵活与规模共存，如NAPA+GPC模

过配送体系降低成本已经足以形成企业的

库不但可以让企业降低库存，还能与前市

式。市场发展成熟后，将会出现更为独立

核心竞争力，高度一体化下巨大的管理成

场链接起来，一起通过数据挖掘发现汽车

的竞争业态，如Pepboy模式或Worldpac

本反而成为累赘。因而，分析市场环境中

整体改善的空间，实现互利共赢。在所谓

模式。前者是汽车零售界的沃尔玛，后者

存在的问题，适时推动企业竞争模式向新

的“大数据”时代，数据堪比石油，深度

是多品牌原厂件集成服务商。电子商务服

的方向演进，对于仍然处于转型初期的汽

的数据挖掘将给企业带来许多意想不到的

务企业也不例外，以汽车生活服务平台车

车后市场是实现可持续发展的关键。

收获。鉴于汽车后市场电子商务的巨大价

蚂蚁为例子，在与上百家汽车服务机构进

在这个过程中，汽车维修、配件企业

值空间，汽车后市场线上企业势必能找到

行捆绑式合作的基础上，车蚂蚁整合了商

可以不断寻求创新。如针对司机与乘客的

一席之地。

家信息，为客户提供平台分享体验。

健康、实用的功能性产品在市场上出现，

分享与信任

相比之下，在既有业务基础上进行价

环保类产品和人性化的宠物用品等精细服

值链延伸，则以让企业兼具资金基础和联

务。又如，充分利用与客户交流的时间创

汽车后市场属于极度复杂而多变的行

盟的部分优势。如上汽集团继以“安吉物

造价值，美国的汽修连锁店Five Star在实

业。尽管方向已相当清晰，要成功实现转

流”成功入驻汽车物流后，又试图涉水汽

际中采用了这种模式，更换机油只需一半

型并不容易。

车后市场电子商务。众多汽车品牌经销商

市场价，同时提供免费诊断服务，逐渐赢

也跃跃欲试，以图更大发展。

得顾客的信任。这恰恰是汽修业最为关键

战略联盟与价值链延伸。中国汽车后 市场可谓百废待兴，既无可供依赖的行业

坚守阵地与适时推动。从发达国家汽

标准，又无足够高质量的制造企业，更无

车后市场业态演进的规律来看，在市场成

（作者分别来自上海机动车检测中心和上

能够引导行业竞争生态的大型连锁企业，

熟的不同阶段，会诞生大相径庭的企业业

海大学悉尼工商学院）

的成功要素，这种模式或许可以借鉴。

June 2013

47

REPOR T

Bringing down the house Investors and officials are tripping up China’s new policy for cooling the property market

M

aking a house into a home is difficult. Especially when you’re a country trying to do it for the bulk of your housing stock. China has tried to curb investment purchasing to bring down prices for those buying a first home but has found that’s not so easy.

In the latest wave of measures to deter speculative buying, the central government enacted a 20% capitalgains tax on the sales of second homes on April 1. It also raised the required down payment for second homes from 60% to 70% and increased mortgage rates to from 1.1% to 1.3%, although these policies have been implemented differently across the country.

Home prices have dodged the effects of the policies thus far. Prices actually climbed the fastest in 18 months in April. They rose 5.34% higher year-on-year last month.

The latest policies have at least slowed property sales, much to the relief of some policymakers. The transaction volume of home sales fell 13% month-on-month in April, a sign that cooling tactics are starting to work.

Early this month, Moody’s Investors Services predicted sales and prices would slow for the full year 2013.

However, predictions for what the market will look like six months from now are mixed.

Trickle down The decrease in sales is part of the intended effect, but the housing con-

48

June 2013

trols have missed the the government’s main target – lower home prices for first-time buyers and less speculative investment into the sector. Lower sales should eventually result in lower prices, although that will take time.

In fact, the recent measures have likely boosted prices in some segments of the market. Some sellers might have raised the price on the property to make up the cost of paying the 20% tax, which “may increase prices over a short period of time,” said James Macdonald, head of research at property firm Savills China.

Investors and local officials are also often unwilling to sell at a lower price, even if it greatly reduces their chance

of selling.

Soon after the new policies were announced, property developer Soho China CEO Zhang Xin told The Wall Street Journal that they would not effectively root out China’s real estate problems. Investors own large amounts of property and, because China has very limited taxes on housing, hold it at nearly no cost. Zhang said that without annual property taxes, investors can continue to lock up housing supply and drive prices up.

Officials in Chinese cities also have an interest in keeping prices high. The performance and promotion prospects of local cadres is heavily influenced by the amount of funds they raise for

development projects, according to a Standard Chartered report issued in April. By keeping prices high, they make more money on land sales, a major means of raising revenue. “The more money you raise from selling land, the more you have to spend on big infrastructure projects and the bigger the impression you make on your superiors,” the report said.

Limbering up Despite the backward incentives for local cadres, some places appear to have gone further than others to enact the new policy. Unlike cooling measures in the past, local officials may have been allowed to implement the new policy according to the temperature of the local market, said Macdonald at Savills.

A varied rollout of the measures could have a positive effect because property markets within China vary

greatly. Macdonald noted that any flexibility in the policy was unofficial.

Variations are evident a month and a half after the controls were officially enacted. Beijing was the only city to seriously implement the 20% capital-gains tax. Sales volumes of new homes still increased there, however.

In Guangzhou, stronger controls on mortgages led to a reported 50% slowdown in sales.

Officials in second-tier cities have had a much lighter touch, according to Johnson Hu, a property analyst at investment bank CIMB Group. Sales slowed by about 10% in second-tier cities in April, less than expected, which could actually indicate that local governments have too much leeway.

“That’s a very small percentage of decline, even for the first month of policy tightening,” Hu said. “If the local governments don’t do anything, I foresee the sales volume rebounding, and that will bring up the home price in the future.”

The next move Hu was not optimistic that the latest measures would be enough to keep increases in property price at an acceptable level, ideally matching the rate of GDP growth. Housing is often deemed unaffordable when prices climb faster than GDP or personal disposable income. Annual GDP is rising in the single digits yet housing prices climbed by more than 40% year-onyear in the first two months of 2013.

Based on current trends, which included the launch of more real estate projects in the next few months, Hu predicts a rebound in property sales later this year, which would likely require the government to step in once

again with a new set of controls.

Macdonald didn’t rule out the possibility of new property measures this year, but he said the government will be conservative in issuing further policy. While aiming to slow sales and prices, authorities do not want to overshoot and cause a major market drop.

But if the more flexible policies are not enough to bring prices within reach of first-time home buyers, the government will need to consider harder-hitting measures.

Despite the widespread resistance to an annual property tax, speculators holding large amounts of property should be forced to pay out when they horde real estate. Taxes may be the only effective deterrent to investors.

In the longer term, revising the way that local cadre performance is assessed could bring prices down. Raising money off land sales shouldn't be the key to impressing senior officials.

However prices are ultimately deflated, officials will need to set their targets low enough to make housing affordable for as many first-time buyers in the market as possible. With a growing wealth gap in China, the metrics used to determine affordability could be ineffective. GDP growth or per capita disposable income is skewed by the wealth disparity and, if used to set prices, will exclude many from the housing market.

Transition is tough. Lower sales and prices will translate into lower economic growth. More cooling measures will not make friends in Beijing, where vested interests hold large quantities of apartments and villas. But getting homes out of speculators' hands and opening them for families should be the government's top priority.

June 2013

49

REPOR T

Breaking the ice China’s invitation to the Arctic will help keep the country’s thirst for resources in check

W

hen the Arctic Council, a body of eight Arctic states, met in May to discuss underwater fiber optics, China was surely in the room. The council granted China – thousands of miles from the North Pole – a permanent observer seat on the council last month, a status the country has long sought out.

The wide coverage of China’s grandiose-sounding ascendance to the council underplayed that it is essentially a toothless organization. The Arctic Council doesn’t make policy decisions on the region, nor does observer status allow China to vote on the body’s agenda. When it comes to resource deals in a region estimated to hold 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas, the council will have little sway in keeping players such as China out. China’s footprint is already in the snow.

Its dealings with Greenland, still technically part of Denmark, are a good example of its inroads in the region.

The Copenhagen Post last year reported that China would invest US$225.5 in airports and shipping infrastructure in Greenland’s capital. EU Commission officials have also noted that China is conducting mining feasibility studies on the mostly barren land mass.

China and Iceland signed a freetrade agreement last month, but China’s interest there go beyond trade.

Damien Degeorges, a researcher at the University of Greenland, told China Economic Review late last year that the island-state “is seen by some as a

50

June 2013

future hub for Chinese shipping activity in the region.”

China’s trip through the Arctic Sea last year would support that suspicion. Last summer, Chinese icebreaking “Snow Dragon” sailed north from China, around Russia to an Icelandic port and back again. Other countries in the region that are more wary of China, such as Norway and Russia, watched carefully as the ship made its way through the icebergs.

With little other recourse for nations that are nervous about China’s activity in the region, the Arctic Council’s mantra might as well be “If you can’t beat them, have them join you.”

Although the council has little power to act, it can still play a role in fostering peaceful relations. The council is the primary forum for communication and cooperation on the preservation of the Arctic environment. If problems or abuses arise during China’s Arctic expeditions, the council will be the

arena in which to engage the country.

Participation on the council will also foster a much-needed understanding between interested nations like China and the Arctic countries, said Lawson Brigham, a governor at the American Polar Society and a senior fellow at the Institute of the North in Anchorage, Alaska, in an interview with China Economic Review late last year.

Despite the urge to shut China out (something Norwegian officials reportedly threatened), coming face to face with China on environmental issues will be the most effective way of dealing with the country that – at least on its home turf – has shown little regard for the state of its natural environment.

China is in the Arctic, with or without welcome. Now it’s up to the Arctic Council’s members to pressure China to respect the environment. Facing off with China in a meeting room should yield more peaceful results than a confrontation on the ice.

焦点 挪威

积极信号 中国与挪威的经贸关系正在逐步加深

今

年5月上旬，国内领先的支线船舶

挪威与中国在石油领域的合作已有20

建设银行与卡塔尔、挪威和阿塞拜疆三国

出口公司舜天船舶宣布与国内另外

多年历史。2008年9月，中海油服有限公

主权财富基金共同认购了俄罗斯外贸银行

两家公司一起，与挪威宝澳海洋平台供应

司斥资25亿美元收购挪威著名钻井服务商

（VTB）55%新增股权。

船舶公司签订合同，为其建造并出售2艘多

AWILCO。2009年，中海油公司与挪威

挪威对中国的直接投资始于1983

功能海洋平台供应船，合同金额约9亿元人

国家石油公司在墨西哥湾四个区块达成合

年，项目主要集中于石油化工、冶金、船

民币。5月21日，挪威船级社（DNV）披

作。2010年，中国中化集团以30.7亿美元

舶设备、绿色能源、医药、造纸、渔业

露，已在中国成立专门的海工专家组，以

收购挪威国家石油公司巴西Peregrino项

等。挪威国家石油公司、挪威船级社等企

顺应中国海洋工程行业的迅速发展，支持

目40%权益，此后又与挪威国家石油公司

业在中国开设了工厂或分公司。

中国船东、船厂和专业设计院在海工领域

签署战略合作备忘录。

的技术需要。 此前，中国如愿以偿成为北极理事 会正式观察员，而挪威早就表达了赞成之 意。未来二三十年，北极地区海冰将有可 能在夏季全部融化，这为利用北极航道通 往北美和欧洲提供了可能，而冰川的自然 资源也极其丰富。诸多迹象显示，世界最 大国家与欧洲最小国家之一的经贸关系正 在日益加深。 2010年底诺贝尔和平奖颁发后的一 段时期，中国与挪威的关系曾一度受挫， 跌入谷底。中方取消了双方高层会议和 政治对话，无限期延迟了自由贸易协定谈 判。一些贸易合作项目也临时终止。挪威 对中国的三文鱼出口量大幅下降。2012年 6月，挪威前首相邦德维克欲入境中国，被 中国驻挪威使馆拒签。在这一摩擦中，中 国受到的经济损失微不足道。挪威统计局 数据显示，2012年挪威与中国的双边贸易 额仅为103.5亿美元。而当年中国的进出 口总额高达3.8万亿美元，对中国而言，中 挪双边贸易额几乎可以忽略不计。 虽然贸易额不大，但中国与挪威的 经贸往来具有很大互补性。近几年，中国 对挪威的投资进展顺利，在挪威的中资机 构包括华为公司、中兴通讯、中海油服公 司、中远北欧有限公司等，分别从事通讯 设备市场推广、海上石油平台、航运等业 务。中国从挪威引进的技术主要涉及水 电、医疗和环保等领域。

52

June 2013

挪威的财富基金正将投资方向从欧洲

除了传统产业领域，双方在金融领域

转向亚洲和新兴市场，以寻求更高利润。

的合作也取得一定进展。今年3月，中国

今年4月底，全球最大投资机构之一的挪威

SPOTLIGHT NOR WAY

主权财富基金公开要求中国向国外投资者 开放国内市场，并称打算向中国投资数十

Light of North

亿美元。该主权财富基金主管称，人民币 债券离岸市场相当小，而且流动性不大； 在岸市场虽然很大，但外资却无法参与。

More interactions are expected between Norway and China as Arctic ice melts

挪威市场还受惠于中国消费能力的提 高。中国游客海外购物已渐成时尚。挪威 最大免税公司Global Blue Norway数据显 示，中国游客2012年在挪威购买的免税商 品数额比上年增长40%，这两年中国游客 购买的免税商品总额达6500万克朗（约合 7150万人民币）。 中国与挪威的自由贸易区谈判已中断 两年多，但最近的一些动向释放出双边关 系有望改善的积极信号。人们有理由相信 双边自由贸易区谈判即将梅开二度，两国 的经贸合作也会全面开花。

M

ay 15 was a big Arctic day for China, the day it won permanent observer status in the Arctic Council after a seven-year wait. It was also a day that could help Norway and China to improve their relationship, given Norway’s support for China’s application.

China and Norway may be opposi-

ties in geography and scale, but Norway was one of the first western nations to recognize the People’s Republic of China after 1949, and also the second European country to grant China market economy status.

Norway has only 5 million people, while China has its famous total population of over 1.3 billion, but in terms of GDP per capita their roles are reversed. Statistics from the World Bank indicate that China’s GDP per capita was USD 5,445 in 2011, in 88th position on the global table while Norway had GDP per capita of USD 98,081, ranking 3rd worldwide.

Norway has the potential to be role model for China in many areas. Its expertise in terms of environmentally-friendly products and research and energy could be leveraged in various ways by China, beset by environmental and energy issues.

China as the world’s major exporter of relatively cheap products has the advantage of a huge reservoir of human resources, available for use by Norwegian manufacturers, and consumer markets with huge potential.

As the Arctic sea ice, which previously separated the two countries, melts, the economic future of Norway and China will be fundamentally reshaped. The complementary aspects of these two countries may trigger more interaction and create significant opportunities for further cooperation.

June 2013

53

焦点 挪威

新突破 新愿景 加入北极理事会将为中挪的后续合作奠定扎实基础

环保呼声渐高的大背景下，中国当

在

于领先地位。覆盖的油气开发领域范围很

选为北极理事会观察员，这一新身

广，从近海供应船和钻机设计、导航、定

份将为中国以及一贯对其支持的挪威带来

位系统到大型项目管理。而挪威国家石油

怎样的积极影响？为此本刊采访到挪威驻

公司（Statoil）在这一领域始终走在世界

华公使尼尔斯（Nils Martin Gunneng）

前列，另外挪威还有一些小企业也提供相

先生，他与我们详细探讨了两国未来合作

关的高性能工程设备。

关系的走向。

中挪两国已在这一领域展开了诸多合 作。一些挪威船东正在中国建造近海供应

问：挪威对中国获得北极理事会正式

船和钻机，所采用的设计和大型部件来自

观察员地位有何看法？ 答：我认为中国及其他诸国获得观察

挪威，但其他资源则由中国提供。同时还 尼尔斯先生

员地位一事是对北极理事会重要地位的肯

有一些挪威企业为中国公司提供设计方案 和设备。这一领域的合作前景较为广阔。

定，确立了其作为国际论坛在探讨北极事

答：最重要的问题在于自然资源和储

另外还有很多中国企业在挪威投资，如中

务方面所起的作用。挪威外相用“重要突

备丰富的北极地区有着较为脆弱的生态系

海油田服务股份有限公司数年前收购了挪

破”四个字来形容他对中国成功加入理事

统。所以展开经济活动时我们须在对资源

威的Awilco，后者是深海钻机领域的佼佼

会的看法。我们对于中国能加入进来感到

进行责任管理和环境保护之间求取平衡。

者。中海油田公司借此交易一举成为欧洲

由衷的高兴，这为双方后续合作提供了便

这是每个北极理事会员都需要了解的，也

油气市场的主导企业之一。

利。

是所有人都必须承担的责任。 问：海运行业有关气体排放的规定愈 问：中挪两国能以何种方式就北极地

区的发展进行合作？

问：挪威面向中国的海鲜出口市场状 况如何？

准？

答：我认为可能有很多种。首先是

答：我们直接将海鲜运送到中国消

答：为应对不断增长的环保需求，挪

科学研究领域，其次是政治合作与商业合

费者手中，同时还提供各类原材料加工服

威在造船和船舶设备领域已开发出了一系

作。目前需要将三者有机的结合才能进

务，以将海产品从中国再运送到其他市

列广泛的技术解决方案。我们制定的若干

一步在北极地区展开合作。就科学研究而

场。中国目前是挪威第五大海鲜市场，去

海上运输规定严格程度在全世界居首，这

言，由于中国及其他亚洲国家拥有的相关

年挪威共计向中国出口了1.56亿吨海鲜。

也使得挪威企业在相关领域一直处于领先

专业技术对北极地区的发展甚为关键，很

地位。另外，我需要特别强调的一个方面

多挑战都可以通过国家或机构之间的紧 密合作来得到解决，涉及的研究可以是

问：挪威能为中国带来哪些船舶技术 支持？

气候变化，以及冰雪、大气、生物学和

答：就船舶业而言，挪威能提供的技

地质学。另外还有很多问题有待进一步研

术支持种类有很多，涉及的领域包括发动

究。就政治合作而言，我们之前与中国有

机、渔泵系统、表面涂层、供暖系统等。

过两轮北极对话，目的在于制定相关的区

这些技术都具有环保、高效及节能的特

域议题，了解我们各国在北极地区所处的

点。

置，以加深对彼此看法的了解。 问：在北极地区未来经济发展过程中 国应扮演怎样的角色？

June 2013

是挪威在开发液化天然气装置作为海上运 输燃料系统方面所作的贡献，这一应用已 为环境带来了诸多益处。 问：挪威在保持环境清洁方面有什么 秘诀？ 答：首先，挪威制定了强大的环保政

位置，了解挪威作为主要参与国所处的位

54

发严格，挪威将怎样协助中国达到类似标

策，对导致污染的企业课以重税，并出台 问：挪威在近海油气开发领域有哪些

了一系列举措鼓励企业和个人实施环保。

技术优势可供中国利用？两国在该领域开

其次，挪威供电来源98%是可再生能源，

展了哪些合作？

其中96%属于水力发电。第三，我们在脆

答：挪威在近海油气技术领域一直处

弱的生态系统和经济活动间求取平衡。

SPOTLIGHT NOR WAY

Renewable relations Permanent observer status for China on the Arctic Council will be the basis for more and better cooperation in the Arctic, says Nils Martin Gunneng, Norway’s deputy ambassador to China

A

s“Go Green” initiatives gain traction, China has the opportunity to renew its commitment to international and environmental organizations. That could bring further cooperation with Norway, a country renowned for its environmental-friendly technologies and policies.

Nils Martin Gunneng, deputy chief of mission at the Norwegian Embassy in Beijing, spoke to China Economic Review on the state of Sino-Norwegian relations.

In terms of the shipping industry, what role can Norway play in assisting China to meet evertightening emission regulations?

Increased environmental awareness and international environmental conventions have resulted in an increasing demand for environmentally-friendly solutions, in line with Norway’s international and environmental commitment and the growing market for maritime environmental technology.

Our shipbuilding and ship equipment industry has developed a number of technological solutions to meet the increasing demand for environmentally-friendly approaches. We have formulated some of the most stringent regulations in the world for our coastal transport in Norway. That has put Norwegian companies in the forefront of the industry - developing and adopting solutions for cleaning up maritime transport. One thing I

would mention particularly is Norway’s ability to contribute liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel systems, the whole machinery operating on LNG as a maritime fuel for ships, which has many environmental gains.

What is the state of the seafood trade between Norway and China?

When it comes to seafood exports, we deliver seafood directly to consumers in China and also provide raw material for processing and re-export from China to other markets. China is now Norway’s fifth largest market for seafood. In 2012, we exported a total of 156,000 tons of Norwegian seafood to China.

What know-how does Norway have that it could provide to China in the maritime segment?

When it comes to the maritime industry, there is an enormous amount that Norway could provide – motors and engines, fishing pump systems, surface coatings, heating systems – all of them are very clean, effective and energy saving.

What offshore oil and gas technology does Norway have that China could utilize?

As you know, we are a leading nation when it comes to offshore oil and gas technology. We are engaged in everything from offshore supply vessels and rig design, navigation, position-

June 2013

55

焦点 挪威

ing systems and large project management. Statoil is a world leader in offshore oil and gas technology and a multitude of small Norwegian companies provide high performance engineering equipment in this sector.

dialogues with China. This is in order to shape the agenda of the Arctic and to increase understanding of our countries’ position in the Arctic and the position of ourselves as a major player and get understanding for our views in the Arctic.

What form might the cooperation take within offshore oil and gas sector?

There are already considerable cooperation between Norway and China.

Norwegian owners are building offshore supply vessel and rigs in China, using often Norwegian design and large component of Norwegian equipment and then Chinese firms build the ship. Norwegian companies are also providing designer equipment to Chinese companies, building China’s first indigenous deepwater drilling rig with correspondent dynamic positioning system, drilling equipment that fits the market.

So this is obviously field for cooperation that is already well-developed.

Also, there are a lot of Chinese companies looking to invest in Norway.

One is China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL) which some years ago bought a Norwegian company called Awilco, which is a very big company when it comes to deep-sea drilling rigs.

COSL is actually now a major player in Europe because of that purchase.

What role should China play in shaping the economic future of the Arctic?

The Arctic is an area with large deposits and natural resources as well as vulnerable eco-systems. When it comes to economic activity, we will have to strike a balance between responsible resource management and environ-

56

June 2013

What is Norway’s view on China gaining observer status at Arctic Council?

mental concerns. Every player in the Arctic will have to be aware of this and that is the role we all should play – striking that balance between responsible resource management and environmental concerns.

In what way can China and Norway work together for Arctic development?

I think there are many possibilities.

Scientific research comes first, then political cooperation and commercial cooperation. You need all three in order to be successful in the Arctic. Scientifically, many challenges can be addressed through close research cooperation between institutes and states. China and other Asian countries have technology expertise that is highly relevant and valuable for the development of the Arctic. Research into climate change for instance, and also snow and ice, atmosphere, biology and geology. There are a lot of issues that could be looked into. When it comes to political cooperation, we previously have held two rounds of High North

I think the granting of observer status to China and other countries confirms the Arctic Council’s key position as an international forum for discussion on Arctic issues. And you know the Norwegian foreign minister described the situation as “a major breakthrough”.

So we are thrilled to have China as a permanent observer in the Arctic Council to further strengthen cooperation with China.

Norway is renowned for its energy sustainability and environmentally-friendly measures.

What is the secret of Norway’s clean environment?

I think it comes from several things.

First, Norway has a strong environmental regulatory policy. We have placed high taxes on polluting activity. We have in place strong incentives for companies and individuals to go green, to clean up their acts. And secondly, Norway has a power sector that is around 98% renewable energy, 96% percent of that being hydropower, so there’s very little emission coming from that sector. The third point is related to what we talked about earlier with the needs in the Arctic and also Norway generally to strike that balance between vulnerable ecosystems and economic activity.

SPOTLIGHT NOR WAY

更活跃 更开放 挪威企业在中国市场的活跃度有待提高

挪

威在中国加入北极理事会一事上所

事’，但对华投资通常需要涉及到很多

道，“但就如何帮助它们了解和利用中国

做的努力是两国间关系日益加深的

人、机构以及条规，致使情形变得较为复

的政策而言，China Policy还有很多要做。

积极信号，北京咨询公司China Policy挪

杂。若他们能更好地了解自己的同行如何

所以必然会将触角伸至更多挪威企业。”

威业务经理埃兰德（Erlend Ek）先生如

看待中国各类问题，在与对方进行谈判时

是说。

则能更得心应手。”他说道。

对中国企业收购、投资北欧企业的行 为，他的看法是：“中国‘走出去’战略

他认为，对挪威企业而言中国市场的

“目前有超过200家挪威企业在中

十分令人振奋，其中蕴含无限机遇。挪威

吸引力在于，“首先中国的消费群体非常

国设立了代表处，包括所有传统型企业和

已作好准备，取决于中资企业能否抓住机

庞大，挪威企业当然希望能从中获益。另

大型企业。但我可以毫不夸张地说这些企

遇，冲破限制。一些具有开拓精神的中资

一方面中国又是最重要的劳力密集型工业

业在中国市场的活跃度并不如预想的那样

企业在这方面已取得了一定成功。它们将

产地，所制造的产品不仅具有成本优势，

高。其中一个原因是这些企业中的挪威籍

收购受困企业作为长期战略的组成部分，

质量也有一定保障。所以许多投资人士认

管理人士对中国的语言以及本土化运作的

并不断摸索经营之道。但若想在挪威市场

为中国市场充满着各类机遇。”

方式仍不十分了解。但挪威海事企业是例

真正立足，中国企业需摒弃固有的机构化

外，这类机构的活跃度很高。”他补充

管理方式，尝试更多其他经营模式。”

“挪威企业通常习惯于‘按规矩办

Hands across the ice Norway’s efforts to help China gain entry to the Arctic Council as an observer has been noted and provides hope for the bilateral relationship, says Erlend Ek

D

investors? And what are Norwegian enterprises aiming for when they look to invest in China?

What is the appeal of the Chinese market to Norwegian

China is firstly a huge consumer market and the Norwegians would like a piece of the growing cake. But China is also the most important manufacturer of low-cost and reliable goods. Many see China as the land of opportunities.

Norwegians are used to following the rules, but investing in China always involves many people, organizations and regulations, which can make the reality very complex. If they understand how their counterparts view China’s issues and challenges they are much better prepared for discussions with their counterparts.

uring the past few years, relations between China and Norway have passed through various temperatures from warm to freezing. But there are several enduring areas of mutual interest between the two countries particularly in terms of energy, maritime issues and Arctic cooperation. China Economic Review spoke to Mr. Erlend Ek, Norway country manager for China Policy, a Beijing-based research and consulting agency serving a variety of organizations including MNCs, funds, governments, research organizations, UN agencies, foundations and NGOs.

How actively do you see Norwegian companies establish businesses in China?

There are now more than 200 Norwegian companies represented in China, including all the traditional and large ones. I think it is safe to say that they are not as active as they should be. One reason is that still very few Norwegians in these companies possess sufficient knowledge of the Chinese language and operating in the Chinese environment. The exception is the maritime industry.

They have been impressively active, but to use a language they understand, we have also much to offer them in terms of navigating Chinese policy waters.

June 2013

57

焦点 挪威

以市场换创新 中挪两国在经贸领域具有一定互补性

挪

威船级社（DNV）医疗卫生（中 国）总裁高劲松先生于近日接受

问：挪威对中资企业的收购行为持什 么态度？中国企业希望从中得到什么？

DNV内部讨论中，我们提出了5年后在中

本刊采访，畅谈了对中挪两国经贸关系的

答：我觉得，实际的态度概括来说即

国市场占有率达到70%的目标，但一位英

看法。高劲松先后获得复旦大学电子工程

是“开放中有审慎”。中国投资者带来的

国同事却表示反对，他的看法是如果我们

系学士和硕士学位，并曾在挪威商学院担

不仅是资金，还有中国的市场（渠道）。

所占的市场份额太大，就会滋生内部的腐

任讲师和研究员。另外，他还参与编写了

对于很多被收购和投资的企业，这点十分

败和低效率，而这样对中国的医院和市场

专注探讨中国经济的挪威语书籍“KINAS

具有诱惑力。但是挪威商界非常注重企业

是不负责任的。所以不应大到接近垄断，

ØKONOMI”。

社会责任，在这方面对中国有一定顾虑。

保持在40%-50%的市场占有率就可以。

从中国企业的角度来说，它们进行类似交

从这里你可以看出他的观点与中国的价值

易的目的在于以市场之名得技术之实，兼

观是相反的。另外，DNV如何与中国的医

品牌之利，当然还看中其背后的国际化经

院相结合？比方中国的以药养医、大方子

验和人才。

大检查，这也是考验。

问：在中挪经贸关系中，挪威的最大 优势是什么？中国的优势在哪里？ 答：挪威最大的优势在于它与中国有 很多不同。比如美、中是两个大国，但挪 威是小国，或者就像老子所说的是“小国 寡民”。挪威的优势包括创新意识以及对

对挪威企业而言，我觉得有效的解决 问：在哪些领域，挪威在全球处于领 先地位？

质量的重视，当然还有一些优势行业，比

答：从有形的层面来看包括石油钻

如石油、海事等。中国的优势，最明显的

井、深海勘探、通讯、铝业以及水电。无

就是市场容量大，另一方面则是中国文化

形的则是指可持续发展领域，以及企业社

所体现的较强适应力和灵活性。两国在这

会责任方面的理念。事实上可持续发展这

些方面有一定的互补。

个词最早就是由挪威前首相Gro Harlem Brundtland提出的。

问：在双方的经贸往来中，中国最应 该向挪威学习什么？

之道并非单方面的妥协，而是寻求平衡。 在深入理解中国市场的同时又不丧失价值 观，力求做到透明。 问：谈谈你所了解的挪威投资人士对 中国市场的看法？ 答：有一些投资者持相当热切的态 度，要知道中国的市场非常大。对于450 万人口的国家来说，中国的一切数字都大

问：你负责的部门在中国开展业务

到难以想像。举个例子，中国有20000家

答：中国在许多方面需要向挪威学

时，遇到的最大困难是什么？如何解决？

医院，但欧盟一共才17000家，美国也才

习。首先是创新体系，我们知道从中国制

答：主要问题是很多中国人对挪威这个国

6000家医院。“数字大到吓人”是挪威人

造到中国创造还有很长的路要走，但是创

家并不了解，甚至不知道它在哪。比较大

在形容中国市场时经常讲的一句话。另外

造的本质还是创新体系。还有就是人本主

的困难在于DNV是一家有着全球价值观的

一些挪威投资者认为中国有很多本地化的

义的价值观。中国人讲天人合一，以人为

国际化企业，但在很多方面需要和中国的

运作方式，所以对当地市场的很多做法有

本，我在挪威有这方面的亲身经历。只有

本地化运作方式融合。也就是我刚才所谈

些困惑，但不一定都是负面的。简言之，

将人放在第一位，创造力和生产力才能更

到的如何将挪威的价值体系、人本主义、

挪威投资人认为中国是对冒险家来说最好

高。最后就是对质量的毫不妥协。

创新理念与中国市场规模在实际中结合。

的乐园，但随时也有一招致命的危险。

As a Norwegian, what’s your take on Chinese acquisitions of northern European companies?

well prepared for this, so it is up to the Chinese companies to grasp the opportunities and manage the constraints.

The first path-breakers have seen some success in acquiring distressed companies as part of their long-term strategies.

They are learning from this, but to really compete in Norway, Chinese companies need to develop new ways of operating and break away from following patterns encoded in their institutional DNA. Visit China Policy at policycn.com.

Personally, I find the Chinese ‘going global’ project exciting. I see a world of opportunities and hope. Norway is

58

在这里我可以内外部各举一例。在一次

June 2013

SPOTLIGHT NOR WAY

Innovate like a Norsk China and Norway are complementary to each other in economic and trade areas, says academic and businessman Jinsong Gao

J

insong Gao is now Director General at DNV Healthcare China, a Norwegian risk management provider. Previously, he served as a researcher and lecturer at the BI Norwegian Business School from 2006 to 2011.

He is also co-author of the book “China’s Economy.” He spoke to China Economic Review about Sino-Norwegian economic and trade relations.

What are China and Norway’s respective advantages in terms of their bilateral economic and trade relations?

Norway’s biggest advantage lies in its difference to China. Both America and China are big powers, but Norway is a kind of a small nation. Other advantages of a Nordic country such as Norway include its systems for innovation, quality control measures and such areas as oil, gas and maritime resources. On the other hand, China is a huge market with a great measure of flexibility. The two countries are thus complementary to each other on these levels.

What are the most important lessons that China can learn from Norway in terms of doing business?

China can learn a great deal from Norway. What comes first is the establishment of systems of innovation.

It is a long way to go for the world’s second biggest economy from “Made in China” to “Innovated in China”.

nese investors. As for Chinese dealseekers, they are actually seeking for technology expertise when expanding their presence in Norway, as well as brands, international management experience and talent.

What sectors of the Norwegian economy have been leading the global market?

The nature of innovation lies in its underlying system. Another aspect is humanism. There is a saying in China which fits in with the values of our Norwegian peers: “Integrating humanity with nature.” Last but not least, Norwegian businesses never give in to demands which may undermine the quality of products or services.

What is Norway’s perspective regarding acquisitions by Chinese companies?

Actually Norwegian enterprises and the government are quite cautious when they look to reach M&A agreements with Chinese counterparts.

What Chinese investors can provide is not only financial support but also the huge market, and it is a juicy bonus for many Norwegian targets. But Norwegian business circles are concerned about the fulfillment of CSR [Corporate Social Responsibility], to which they attach great importance, by Chi-

Leading areas include oil drilling, deep sea exploration, telecommunications, aluminum and hydropower. In terms of intangibles, all sustainable segments and commitment to CSR. Actually, the word “sustainability” was firstly proposed by Norway’s former prime minister Gro Harlem Brundtland.

What opinions do Norwegian investors have about the China market?

Some investors are eager to expand their footprint in China. For a country like Norway with only 4.5 million people, all numbers about China are too big to imagine. For example, there are 20,000 hospitals in China, but the number of hospitals for the whole of the European Union is 17,000. Norwegians always say they are “scared by the numbers” when it comes to the China market. Some Norwegian buyers may be confused about the local practices of some Chinese companies, which are not always negative but need to be clarified. In short, China is heaven for some Norwegian adventurers but hell to others.

June 2013

59

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

况的看法？在进驻中国市场方面，艾克尼斯拥有

平衡，无须按钮或手柄进行操控；专利PlusTM构

哪些优势，同时面临哪些挑战？

架系统也具有自动调节功能，对腰背及头部提供

根据我们所做的市场调研，中国家具行业

正确的支撑，轻松满足从直坐到平躺等各种姿态

中高端斜靠椅市场的开发程度相对较低。我们同

的需求。另外该构架系统还设有睡眠模式，用户

时还发现，中国消费者很难将思特莱斯等品牌的

可在平躺小憩前自行调节颈部支撑附件。坐在思

高端斜靠椅与一般的按摩椅区分开来。所以对我

特莱斯品牌椅上的感受无比舒适，可说是世界上

们旗下的思特莱斯品牌而言这块市场的开发潜力

最为舒适的椅子—而这正是我们制胜的法宝。

较大。就像公司在其他市场所做的，我们的目标

在经营中国市场时，艾克尼斯如何保护自身设计

（以及挑战）即是塑造思特莱斯品牌，同时将斜

和品牌的独有性？

靠椅板块作为重点开拓领域。

思特莱斯品牌推出的座椅均属于功能性产

为艾克尼斯集团（Ekornes Group）旗

作

艾克尼斯设计和产品组合在哪些方面的特点将有

品，所以在许多特性方面拥有专利。此外已为公

下的子公司，Ekornes ASA是北欧地区

助于公司进驻中国市场？另外您认为中国消费者

司的产品品牌和品牌功能注册了商标，同时密切

最大的家具生产商，目前已登陆奥斯陆证交所。

目前对产品设计的意识如何？

关注市场动向，以确保专利或商标不受到侵犯。

该公司拥有艾克尼斯、思特莱斯（Stressless®）

大部分中国消费者并不真正了解斜靠椅的

艾克尼斯目前是欧洲中北部，以及美国家具设计

以及Svane®等品牌，其中思特莱斯已成为业内

功用，所以难以将这类产品与按摩椅区分开来。

市场的领导者。您将如何根据中国的美学传统来

最具知名度的品牌之一。

从这方面来看我认为他们目前的意识仍不够强。

设计产品？您是否认为进驻中国市场同样也需要

Ekornes A SA目前在挪威设有四家生产工厂，

迅速致富带给人们的一个问题就是休息放松的时

将设计理念“本地化”？

并通过在东京、新加坡和悉尼设立销售点来拓展

间少了。但当人们真正有机会放松时，思特莱斯

我们的产品放眼全球整个市场，提供的沙

在亚洲地区的分销和销售业务。为此Ekornes

品牌产品将给与其舒适完美的体验，而这一切都

发或座椅品种齐全，另有各类皮质、皮色以及木

Asia总裁Mark Kelsey先生接受了本刊采访，对

归功于我们产品精良的结构。事实上我们经营这

料颜色可供选择。所以无论您置身何处，喜好如

公司进驻中国市场的方案进行了详细阐述。

一市场已有40余年，一直在寻求改良和创新的设

何，都能在思特莱斯提供的产品中找到专属于您

能否谈一谈艾克尼斯对中国家具设计市场发展状

计方案。思特莱斯专利滑动装置可根据动作自动

的座椅或沙发。

kornes ASA, a subsidiary of Ekornes

many other markets, our aim (and challenge)

incredibly comfortable to sit in – I would say the

Group, is the largest furniture manu-

is to build the Stressless brand and at the same

most comfortable chair to sit in. This is the key

facturer in the Nordic region and listed

time establish recliners as a key segment.

to Stressless.

on the Oslo Stock Exchange. The company

What are the key features of EKORNES’

How does EKORNES protect its unique design

owns the brands Ekornes, Stressless and Svane,

design and product portfolio that will support

and brands in China?

of which Stressless has become one of the most

its entry into the Chinese market? How would

recognized in the industry.

you describe the current design awareness of

have a number of patents on the features of the

Chinese consumers?

chair. In addition, we have registered trade-

E

Production currently takes place in four

Stressless is a functional product and so we

factories in Norway, while distribution and

Most Chinese consumers are not aware of

marks for our product brands as well as our

sales in the Asia-Pacific region are coordinated

what a recliner has to offer as compared to a

branded functions. We constantly monitor the

through sales offices in Tokyo, Singapore and

massage chair. So I would say awareness is very

market to ensure that none of our patents or

Sydney. Mr. Mark Kelsey, President, Ekornes

low indeed right now. The downside of rising

trademarks is infringed upon.

Asia, spoke to China Economic Review about

wealth and prosperity is that people have less

EKORNES currently holds the leading posi-

their market entry to China.

and less time to relax, but when they finally

tion in furniture design in the markets of

How does EKORNES see the furniture design

do find the time, Stressless offers a haven of

North and Central Europe and in the US.

market developING in China? What are

comfort thanks to its internal structure, which

How are you customizing the design to meet

EKORNES’ major advantages and challenges

we have refined and redesigned for over 40

the Chinese aesthetic tradition? Do you see

in terms of market entry into China?

years. The Glide System™ allows the chair to

‘localization’ of the design as being relevant

Our market research indicates that the pre-

automatically adjust with your every movement

for the Chinese market?

mium recliner segment of the furniture market

without the fuss of pushing buttons, pulling

We develop our products for a global mar-

in China is relatively untapped. At the same

levers or twisting knobs. The Plus System™

ket. That is, we offer the widest selection of

time, we find that in the eyes of consumers,

provides the correct neck and lumbar support

recliner models in both chairs and sofas with a

premium recliners such as Stressless are eas-

from upright seating to full reclining and every

whole range of leather qualities, leather colours

ily confused with massage chairs. We see this

position in between. The Plus System™ also has

and wood colours to choose from. So no mat-

relatively green field situation in China as a big

a sleep function which lets you adjust the neck

ter where you live or what your preference is,

opportunity for Stressless. As we have done in

support to lie flat when you want to nap. It is

you can find your Stressless recliner or sofa.

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话题

O2O模式：看上去很美 多数从国外复制来的O2O项目并不成功 文 | 晗军

高

德软件于5月10晚间正式宣布获得

务市场做了准备。”艾瑞咨询分析师王影

息、企业公众账号以二维码形式展示，利

阿里巴巴集团2.94亿美元投资，阿

写道，“对高德来说，借助阿里巴巴的力

用智能手机、平板电脑等移动设备扫二维

里巴巴将持有高德约28%的股份，成为其

量，能使高德在移动互联网领域有更大的

码，可以直接进入网页。无论是查询商品

第一大股东，阿里巴巴董事局执行副主席

发展空间；对阿里巴巴来说，通过这次投

信息，还是网上购买，二维码技术尤为便

蔡崇信和阿里巴巴无线事业部总裁吴泳铭

资去占据移动地图领域的重要地位，不管

捷。与二维码、电子凭证技术密切相关的

将担任高德公司董事。这是继阿里巴巴增

是与百度地图竞争还是布局O2O都是很划

则是O2O概念的流行。

持UC股份、入股新浪微博之后在移动互联

算的投资。”

网领域相关的又一重要战略投资。

2011年8月，Alex Rampell提出

据艾瑞咨询数据显示，2012年中国

O2O概念，并且推算出了O2O的商务规

高德软件是国内导航电子地图供应商

移动地图和导航市场用户规模为2.5亿人。

模。美国电子商务每年的平均客单价大概

和位置服务提供商；业务范围覆盖车载导

王影认为，伴随智能终端的不断普及，用

是1 000美元，但是平均每个美国人每年收

航、便携式导航、互联网位置服务、无线

户对移动地图和导航应用具有显著的刚性

入大概为40000美元，剩下的39000美元

位置服务、航空摄影测量以及政府和企业

需求，成为智能手机的必备工具，用户规

跑去了？（这是不准确且概念性的数字，

应用等领域。阿里巴巴此举的目的在于全

模获得较大幅度的增长。移动地图将成为

主要是用来解释目前消费者在电子商务上

面布局O2O领域。

承载O2O发展的重要平台。王影预计未来

花的钱还不够多）答案是扣税之后，钱都

将继续保持平稳增速，到2016年用户规模

花在咖啡馆、健身房、餐厅、加油站、干

将达到5.2亿人。

洗店、理发店等，还要扣除旅游及那些在

“从阿里巴巴早期在O2O领域的投资 并购来看，本地消费电子商务市场一直是 阿里巴巴的重要战略布局，从收购口碑网 到投资美团及丁丁网，虽然尚没有较大起

网络上购买后送到家的生活服务类商品。

新商业模式

按照Alex Rampell这个说法，移动

色，但无疑阿里巴巴看到了未来O2O的重

2012年是微信和二维码最火爆的一

互联网模式下O2O的商务规模至少是目

要发展方向，较早为进军本地消费电子商

年，特别是二维码。个人信息、商品信

前互联网模式下电子商务规模的10倍以 上。2012年，中国电子商务的规模预计已 达1.5万亿规模。难道未来10年，随着移 动互联网的大规模推进，O2O商务的规模 可以达到20万亿？ 2011年11月，O2O概念引入中国。 在团购和生活服务类电商的推进下，到了 2012年，O2O商务模式受到互联网精英 们、创业草根们、专业媒体、风险投资者 等业内人士越来越多的关注。无论是成熟 的传统企业，如火如荼的电子商务企业， 还是以电信、银行、娱乐等为代表与民生 相关的企业，都在探索和践行O2O模式。 上海翼码公司业务支撑部总监张波认 为，Alex Rampell提出的概念并不符合 事实，其他大众认可的三种新定义，也是 O2O发展的三个新方向。在总结这些新方 向的基础上，他提出自己的定义：“O2O

阿里巴巴布局O2O领域

62

June 2013

就是在移动互联网时代，生活消费领域通

过线上（虚拟世界）和线下（现实世界） 互动的一种新型商业模式。”

O2O核心 张波于近期出版的《O2O：移动互联 网时代的商业革命》是国内首部关于O2O 的研究专著。“人性和科技的结合是目前 互联网营销和产品设计的趋势，随着移动 互联网时代的到来，使互联网世界和现实 世界互动变得异常简单，于是生活服务的 移动互联网化开始了。在生活服务领域 中，通过线上虚拟世界和线下现实世界互 动的新型商业模式，这就是目前业内热炒 的O2O商务模式。” 张波写道。 目前，国内成功的O2O企业不在少 数。驴妈妈旅游网是以自助游为核心特色 的新型B2C旅游综合网站，是受白领阶喜 欢的旅游服务品牌之一。经过数年发展， 形成了以打折门票、自由行、特色酒店为 核心，同时兼顾跟团游的巴士自由行、长 线游、出境游、定制游等网络旅游业务， 为游客出行提供一站式服务。景域集团董 事长和驴妈妈创始人洪清华表示：“如何 玩转O2O是这几年移动互联网行业内讨论 最多的话题，如何用O2O去旅游，是最近

O2O是通过线上虚拟世界和线下现实世界互动的新型商业模式

一年我思考最多的问题。” “携程的实践已经充分证明O2O对

因素，而服务行业零散经营背后，短期内

690万美元。从整体看，目前团购行业依

传统行业的巨大革新。携程经历了O2O的

难以标准化；推广效果是否可以测度，这

然十分艰难。品途咨询认为，团购模式本

三个阶段和形态：机票和酒店等标准化产

是本地商家网络效果营销的关键；是否具

身有弊病，很难使网站、消费者和商家三

品‘鼠标+水泥’模式；旅游度假复杂产

有足够的利润空间支持佣金模式？

方之间达到共赢状态；而中国团购市场竞

品“网络直销+线下旅行社服务”模式；贯

O2O模式来源于美国，但并非美国所

争异常激烈，各大团购网站往往采取价格

通主要旅行需求，线上线下融合，提供一

有的O2O项目都适合在中国发展。专注于

战而不是服务去抢夺市场，这使团购行业

站式服务的OTP开放平台模式。现在携程

O2O模式研究的行业机构品途咨询研究了

负面效应被放大。

已经成为国内第二大旅游集团，为6000万

在国内复制失败的O2O案例。

品途网运营总监朱刚表示：“团购对

会员提供服务。”携程旅游集团副总裁郭

一些餐厅预定企业目前发展状况不太

O2O的功劳无疑是很大的。首先众多团购

东杰认为，“携程的成功经验涉及O2O核

理想，无论是企业营收和网站流量增长都

网站教育了大量线下生活服务业商家利用

心，一是传统行业的信息化程度，二是准

陷入停滞状态，开始淡出公众视野。品途

互联网来招揽客户，其次团购培育了上亿

确掌握用户的消费行为。”

咨询分析指出：“餐厅预定在中国并不是

的用户在线购买生活服务，而这在团购之

很强的需求，中国餐厅数量多，用户并没

前是很少见的，另外就是团购为O2O的发

有很强的预定习惯；即便需要预定，中国

展储备了大量的人才。”

不适应国情 从中国O2O整体市场发展来看，清科 研究中心认为存在几大难点：O2O是自下

用户也更加倾向于通过电话而不是网络进 行。”

还有相当多的O2O项目学自国外，但 多数并不成功。“不考虑国情，单纯将模

而上的过程，线下商家的信息化程度直接

团购一度成为O2O代名词，但从

式照搬过来是导致失败的主因；采取不恰

影响细分行业O2O发展进程；产品或服务

2011年下半起团购陷入低谷。今年第一季

当的发展策略，急于求成也是失败的重要

的标准化程度是推动O2O进程的又一关键

度，团购行业前五强之一的糯米网亏损达

原因。”品途咨询指出。

June 2013

63

REPOR T

Picking up the tab China’s massive push for urbanization will land the country with an equally massive bill

F

actory managers may grumble about the rising cost of labor on China’s east coast. However, based on a forthcoming report from a leading state think tank, it’s the government that will foot the greatest bill for the ample supply of workers in cities – something to the tune of US$300 billion during the next eight years.

Migrant workers are greatly in need of public services. To make the hop from village to city, they need housing, health care and employment. Their children must be put in school and their parents require extra medical attention. Under the current household registration, or hukou system, most rural dwellers living in cities do not receive social services and gaining urban status is difficult.

There’s a lot of migrants too. About 160 million Chinese are working outside of the villages in which they were born. They now constitute roughly 22% of China’s urban population.

It’s a costly combination when attempting to officially integrate them.

Such a vast horde of people seeking government support is set to spell out enormous hospital, housing and education bills, according to The Economic Observer, a Chinese newspaper that leaked details from an unreleased report from the Chinese Academy of Governance think tank.

China’s new government has stressed the need for further urbanization and for reform to the country’s outdated household registration

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June 2013

system. The groundbreaking Chinese Academy of Governance report lays out how much such efforts might cost.

In total, governments from the central level down to smaller towns will need to fork over about US$32.5 billion per year until 2020 in order to deliver services to this floating population, the newspaper said. That’s about 15% of the government’s total annual budget.

But the payoff from urbanizing migrant workers should be worth the price. In fact, the cost of neglecting the social needs of China’s primary labor force could be disastrous.

Bearing the yoke In that sense, the spending report from the Chinese Academy of Governance is timely. It’s one of the first concrete outlines from the government on

where the money for migrants should go. At a cost US$224 billion over the next eight year, subsidized housing was the most expensive item on the social shopping list. Education would cost only US$13 billion. The academy is reportedly preparing to hand the plan to the Ministry of Finance.

However, The Economic Observer report provided few answers on how the government would pay for it.

Smaller cities in the east of China will be under the most financial pressure. Cities and towns in the east would have to come up with 65% of the expenditure. Small cities would need to pick up about 35% of the tab, the largest portion, or some US$80 billion over the next eight years.

But small cities are already debtridden and strapped for cash. Many of them would simply not have the funds

to pay the medical and education bills of its out-of-towners, according to Cheng Enjiang, an adjunct professor of agricultural economics at Zhejiang University.

Cheng said he doesn’t see how these local governments can come up with the money. “They don’t have the budget. The money will need to come from the central budget,” he said, noting that he had not seen the report.

Bang for the buck Regardless of how governments muster up the cash, it’s clear that spending on migrants now will help define China’s future economic outlook and its transition toward greater domestic consumption.

Multinationals already yield some data on how much it will cost to pay for better worker benefits but also reveals the resulting gains in productivity. Based on information reported by these global companies, moving workers from migrant status to permanent contract worker status – a shift that would happen more broadly under forthcoming hukou reform – increases costs per unit of output by 4.5%, said Andy Rothman, China

macro strategist at brokerage CLSA, during the firm’s annual conference in Beijing. But the cost of officially urbanizing migrant workers would also boost worker output by 27%, he said.

A plan to detailing measures to reform China’s hukou system could be released later this year, Rothman said.

The reforms are urgently needed to encourage migrants to consume, an important next step for the Chinese economy. Without social support for children and parents, migrants will continue to remit money to the countryside instead of spending it in the city, Cheng said. If the migrants don’t have access to medical services or adequate housing, they will continue to save their money as opposed to consuming.

Promoting consumption among rural residents is seen as a big part of the transition to an economy driven by consumption. The country is in the throes of redirecting its growth model away from one based on manufacturing and exports.

Without solid outlays from the government, the next generation will also struggle to urbanize. The children of

migrants are often left in the countryside with parents and don’t have access to quality education. If that practice continues long enough, the educational gap will feed growing socioeconomic inequality in future generations.

“What will happen with these children?” Cheng said. “That would be a long-term loss to the economy and to the society.”

Putting a price tag on urbanization is an early step toward avoiding these losses to society and starts the discussion of how it will be paid for. The cost may be even larger yet: The expenditure detailed in the Chinese Academy of Governance report considers only the migrants who have already moved to the city, and many of more than 600 million rural residents could still make the move.

There is little doubt that China’s rural residents will continue to leave the village and search out a better life in the city. The transition is imperative to the country’s future growth model as well as the efficiency of its industry. The government should continue counting the costs of what looks to be the greatest movement of people in the history of the world.

June 2013

65

REPOR T

An oasis of reform Months after being unveiled, is Qianhai any closer to becoming the Manhattan of southern China?

A

s the story of Manhattan goes, the island was sparsely inhabited by Native Americans until Dutch settlers purchased the property for a modest sum in the early 1600s. The small plot of land rose over the centuries to become the pinnacle of the financial world.

Now China hopes to do the same in Qianhai special development zone, announced last June. While the moniker “Manhattan of the Pearl River Delta” that has been applied to the zone may be a bit of official bombast, there are some comparisons to be made with the humble beginnings of the New York burrough. Qianhai – located on reclaimed land – is also being built up from nothing and is similarly small, comprising 15 square kilometers.

Officials seek to shape the zone into a modern financial services heavyweight by making it a gate for moving

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June 2013

capital in and out of the mainland.

The zone was hailed as a major step to opening the capital account and instituting full convertibility of the yuan into dollars, reforms eagerly awaited by many in the financial world.

Regulators plan the hallmark of the zone to be direct cross-border lending in renminbi, an act that has previously been impossible under China’s strict capital controls. China allowed mainland companies to settle cross-border transactions in renminbi for the first time in 2009. Since then, growing stockpiles of offshore renminbi have amassed in Hong Kong with limited means to reinvest that money. Qianhai could serve as a portal for that capital back into China.

But major pronouncements and lofty language aren’t enough to make a model for China’s new service economy. Actual investment levels have been

low in the roughly 10 months following the official announcement .

Consider, for example, direct crossborder lending with Hong Kong. In January, 15 Hong Kong banks agreed to lend an equivalent number of industrial companies roughly US$325 million (RMB2 billion) in renminbi loans for construction projects in the zone, according to Z-Ben Advisors, a Shanghai-based investment consultancy that tracks the developments in Qianhai.

That’s a meager amount compared to the US$101.4 billion (RMB624 billion) of renminbi deposits sitting in Hong Kong accounts at the end of January.

Nevertheless, progress is being made in the zone, and investors should focus more on the regulatory changes that have been implemented, said Cindy Qu, a senior analyst at Z-Ben. Regulators are attempting a variety of reforms to build up the zone on a well-rounded service economy. The National Reform and Development Commission (NDRC) has already announced guidelines for the financial services, logistics, technology and professional services sectors in the zone.

Regulators have implemented 14 of the 22 planned policy shifts in Qianhai, according to Z-ben’s latest report on the matter.

“Qianhai still needs time to build up a better financial and banking system,” Qu said. While tangible infrastructure – the buildings to house financial institutions and roads to serv-

ice them – are part of the development, the zone equally needs the financial systems in place to allow for money to easily be transferred across the border with Hong Kong. The zone also needs time to attract experienced bankers.

Both domestic firms and holders of offshore renminbi have been watching the zone with interest in the meantime, Qu said. The lending rate for offshore renminbi is much lower than on the mainland. Offshore renminbi holders therefore have incentive to lend into the mainland, and domestic firms have the motivation to seek them out. The reforms may also attract investment fund administrators, custodian banks and brokerages to the zone, she said.

One key area to watch will be the private equity “fund of funds” that was established by China Development Bank, a state-owned policy bank. The fund will raise renminbi from Hong Kong and the mainland to be invested domestically in other private equity funds. The fund seeks to raise up to US$8.1 billion (RMB50 billion) but

is still in the fundraising stage. Once that is finished later this year, the funds will potentially be funneled into local industries and drive faster development in the zone, Qu said.

The widening of the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) program that allows offshore yuan to be reinvested in the mainland should also be a boon to Qianhai. The investment quotas given under the program will grow from RMB70 billion in January to RMB270 billion under expansion plans announced late last year. Any increase in cross-border currency flows will potentially bring business to the zone, which is specializing to handle such transactions.

Whether Qianhai will turn into a model for the rest of the country, as some have suggested, remains to be seen. Qu is skeptical that other areas could duplicate the zone’s model because Qianhai is uniquely situated near Hong Kong and can attract resources from the already developed

financial sector there. “Qianhai has its own character and can develop those kind of financial reforms.” Perhaps select parts of the Qianhai model, such as the fund of funds, could be used elsewhere in the country, she said.

Qianhai may indeed be on the cutting edge of financial reform – albeit the forefront of a very slow moving push to internationalize the yuan and allow full convertibility to dollars.

Officials dream of Qianhai as a Manhattan of the Pearl River Delta, and the government can certainly build enough skyscrapers to make the zone look the part.

But the reason Manhattan is the center of world finance is because it’s the flagship city of the world’s largest free market. The free market sets the pace of change, generally fast, on the island. As long as the government sets the pace of change in Qianhai, the zone appears to be little more than a minor experiment that falls in the shadows of other major global financial centers.

June 2013

67

话题

陆游眼里的房价 这位诗人生活的南宋是古代居住成本最高的朝代 文 | 李开周 经济生活史作家

以

李开周

前我们探讨过北宋

陆游本人也做过官，而且官衔很多，

当然，不买房，不分房，不代表没

两位大文豪欧阳

先后在宁德主簿、福州决曹、敕令编定所

有房。前面说过，陆游的曾祖、祖父和父

修和苏东坡买房的故事，

删定官、大理寺直、镇江通判、隆兴通

亲都做过官，应该会给他留下一些遗产。

今天说说南宋最多产的诗

判、夔州通判、蜀州通判、成都府安抚使

不过我查遍陆游的家传和文集，没有发现

人—陆游。

参议、四川制置使参议、提举福建路常平

上辈给他遗留产业的记录。陆游中年时写

陆游跟欧阳修和苏东

茶盐事、提举江南西路常平茶盐事、提举

过一首诗，题目叫做《家居自戒》，最后

坡颇有渊源：欧阳修的孙

淮南东路常平茶盐公事、严州知州、礼部

两句是“犹愧先楚公，终身无屋庐”。诗

女嫁给了苏东坡的儿子，

郎中、膳部视察等等岗位上干过很多年。

里“先楚公”指的是祖父陆佃（曾被封

而陆游是欧阳修孙女婿的

其中“主簿”是低级文官，相当于现在中

为“楚国公”），陆佃“终身无屋庐”，

好朋友的堂弟的外甥女的

国大陆的县政府办公室主任；“通判”比

说明官位虽高，房产却无，更别说留下遗

主簿稍高一级，相当于副市长；“知州”

产了。

儿子。这句话能把人绕晕，但它是事实。 陆游跟北宋最有名的改革家王安石也

则是中级文官，相当于市长；“礼部郎

陆游的父亲陆宰做转运副使（相当于

颇有渊源。据陆游自己撰写的家传，他的

中”和“膳部视察”都属于京官，前者相

副省长兼财政厅长）的时候，在我的老家

祖父陆佃在宋神宗时拜在王安石门下，做

当于外交部礼宾司司长，后者主要负责在

河南买过一所房。可惜后来金兵入侵，河

了王安石的亲传弟子。在王安石的悉心指

宫廷举办大型宴会的时候为皇帝尝酒，一

南沦陷，陆宰携家带口迁居祖籍绍兴，在

导下，陆佃政绩突出，仕途顺利，一直做

般都是受皇帝宠爱的官员才能做的兼差。

族人家里借宿，河南那所房子自然也不可

到礼部侍郎，相当于现在的副部级官员。

也就是说，陆游从低级做到高级，从外官

能作为遗产留给陆游。

再仔细挖掘一下，陆游甚至还能跟皇 帝攀上亲戚。陆游的母亲姓唐，是个很厉

做到京官，从府县碎催做到皇帝亲信，整 体上看，他的仕途还算顺利。

只能自力更生。

害的老太太，曾经逼着陆游休掉结发妻子

既然陆游的来头这么大，仕途又这么

十八岁（虚岁，下同）以前，陆游跟

唐婉。老太太为什么如此厉害？因为她有

顺利，名下一定会有很多房产吧？事实恰

父母同住，住在绍兴族人的老宅里。十八

靠山：她的胞妹嫁给了吴越王的孙子钱景

恰相反，陆游一辈子没有买过一套房，同

岁那年他去了杭州，跟表妹唐婉结婚，没

臻，钱景臻的亲生母亲就是宋仁宗的第十

时朝廷也没有分给他一套房。

有婚房，在寺院里把婚事办了。

个女儿秦国公主。所以钱景臻实际上是宋 仁宗的外孙，陆游的母亲即是宋仁宗的外 孙的妻姐。而陆游算起来是宋仁宗的外孙 的内侄。这层关系说起来很远，不过仍然 属于皇亲国戚，所以陆游长到七八岁的时 候，还能跟着母亲进宫给后妃们拜年。 鉴于陆游跟北宋大臣欧阳修、苏东坡 和王安石都有渊源，又是皇帝的外孙的内 侄，所以他是典型的世家子弟。 话说回来，即使陆游跟欧、苏、王 等人毫无关系，也不属于皇亲国戚，他也 是个世家子弟。因为他的曾祖、祖父和父 亲都做过官。他的曾祖陆珪在宋仁宗时做 过国子博士，祖父陆佃在宋徽宗时做过礼 部侍郎，父亲陆宰在宋钦宗时做过转运副 使，都是响当当的官职。

68

没有遗产的陆游要想解决居住问题，

June 2013

越剧《陆游与唐婉》演绎凄美的爱情悲剧

婚后陆游在杭州定居，没有住房，

四十四岁那年，陆游回到绍兴老家镜湖之

不过在南宋时期，房价奇高的地方只

在吴越王的一个子孙家里借住—前面说

畔，在离城区十里远的一个小山村里买地

有杭州、苏州、南京、长沙等几个中心城

过，吴越王的孙子是陆游家的亲戚。

盖房，安置家小，这时候他已经有五个儿

市，在那些小城市，在小城市的郊区，在

子和三个女儿了。

广袤的农村地面，买房并不困难。关于这

两年后他跟唐婉离婚，从亲戚家搬 出来，又回到了绍兴。在父亲和族人的帮

陆游很长寿，在镜湖旁边盖房以后又

一点，从陆游只做了三年通判就能去绍兴

助下，陆游在城郊盖了几间比较简陋的房

活了四十多年，但是这以后的四十多年里

城郊买地盖房（还一连盖了十多间）这一

子。三十四岁那年，陆游正式参加工作，

他再也没有盖房，更没有买房，尤其没有

事实上就能看出来。

带着续弦王氏去福建宁德县当主簿，住进

去杭州买房。

为什么中心城市的房价会远远超过其

了宁德县的衙门大院。三十六岁调回杭州

陆游是很喜欢杭州的，他最留恋的

他地方？陆游给出了解释：大城市安全，

做京官，任敕令编定所删定官（负责修订

结发妻子在杭州定居，他在杭州工作了将

小地方不安全，住在城外和乡村，不是金

法律，李清照的弟弟李迒也在这个岗位干

近十年，他非常想在杭州买房，可是他没

兵来袭，就是农民起义，搞不好就把小命

过），仍然没有住处，在杭州某条地势低

有。因为杭州房价太贵，是绍兴的几倍，

丢了，而住在有重兵驻扎的中心城市则没

洼的小巷里租了两间屋子。这时候，陆

是绍兴城郊的几十倍。

有生命之忧，所以人人都想搬到中心城市

游已经有了四个儿子，怕两间屋子住着

整体来讲，陆游所生活的南宋是古代

住，中心城市的房价就变得非常高。

紧张，所以让老婆孩子回到绍兴暂住，

中国居住成本最高的朝代。这主要是因为

现在不同于南宋，城里和城外都很安

他独自一人在杭州打拼。可是打拼了好

北宋沦陷，金兵的狼牙棒逼着中原人民纷

全，在哪儿都能活着。只是趋利避害乃人

几年，还是在租房，因为杭州是当时的首

纷南渡，使得只有两百万平方公里的小小

之本能，小命保住了，还想活得更好。而

都，房价之高，空前绝后，凭他俸禄是买

南宋一下子挤满了一亿五千万人（一说一

中国大陆的一切优秀资源都被人为集中到

不起的。四十岁那年，陆游被调到镇江做

亿两千万），人口密度超过了此前的任何

了大城市，所以人人都想住在大城市，大

通判，一连做了三年，积攒了一些钱财。

朝代。

城市的居住成本也就变得非常高了。

June 2013

69

看中国

汉字的魅力 汉字在很多方面对汉文化造成了深远的影响 文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

四

晏格文

十多年以来，我

谈到汉字，就不能不提书法。在西方

从未经正确地了解过，而它是中国建筑的

一直对汉字颇为

社会我们有“书写艺术”，但其价值甚至

最出色最显著的特性。有人想象它是跟吾

痴迷，这可是世界上最古

还抵不上中国书法的百分之一，后者不仅

们游牧时代的帐幕形式有联系关系。其实

老的文字系统。“痴迷”

能表达含义和艺术风格，还能揭示书写者

它的理由在书法中可以明见，任何人能透

这个词在这里用得或许并

的性格特征。这真让人惊叹！

彻明了中国书法原则者无不能看出其可爱

不恰当，用“着迷”应该

毛泽东在很多方面都是杰出的人物。

的疾掠线条的纲领，中国书法之最大困

更为贴切。让我一直不得

单就其书法成就而言，他的头像也绝对有

难，乃在使笔画饱含笔力，于完全直线的

不承认的是，汉字所蕴含

资格被印刻在人民币上。他的书法风格清

笔画中常尤为艰难。反之，向任何一面略

的力度和深度是西方字

丽、明快又颇具气势，同时不拘泥于艺术

作斜势，立刻可显觉紧张的气脉。”

母，以及整个西方文字系统所不具备的。

的条条框框。 我的偶像，20世纪伟大作家之一林语

传统汉字的结构和形体之美。林语堂先生

即使是三千年前巫师在龟甲和牛骨上刻下

堂先生曾在其1936年出版的著作《吾国吾

甚至追根溯源，将西方建筑中空洞的艺术

的文字到了今天依然清晰可辨。千年轮转

民》中详细探讨了书法，并认为汉字在很

感归结于古埃及文化。对此他表示：“吾

下的语言系统已发生诸多改变，但文字系

多方面对汉文化造成了深远的影响。这点

们爱好含韵律的或波浪形的或继续的线条,

统在很大程度上仍保留了以往的形态，并

至少在传统汉字对建筑线条的影响上是成

而憎恶呆直僵死的线条是很明显的,只要你

成为了汉族统治下的地域及周边民族书面

立的。

留意我们从未误会像克利奥潘曲拉方尖碑

交流的基础。韩国、日本以及越南均采用

他在书中写道：“屋顶斜倾的由来，

了汉语文字系统。由于汉字基本属于象形 文字，无语音表征，所以移植于其他文化 也十分方便。就像阿拉伯数字1、2、3在 全世界有一千种读法一样，一个汉字可能 有上百种发音，但其写法和代表的含义对 所有人都一样。 当然，简体字的使用在某种程度上 打破了历史的延续性，其发展和盛行很可 能是人为因素所导致。事实上我个人不 喜欢将传统汉字称作“繁体字”，更赞成 用“标准汉字”来将之与“简体字”进行 区分。我还察觉到，中国年轻人出于对传 统文化的好奇似乎已逐渐开始对标准汉字 产生了兴趣，但这也可能只是我的一厢情 愿。不可否认的是，无论是今天还是明 日，对标准汉字的掌握水平是考察一个中 国人受教育程度的前提。另外我也建议那 些正在学习汉语的非华裔人士尽可能多地 了解标准汉字，而非仅仅是简体字。如果 你通晓标准汉字，那么识别简体字将更为 容易。若反其道而行之则要困难得多。

70

摈弃僵直线条的做法恰恰成就了中国

汉字可以将我们直接带入远古时期，

June 2013

书法艺术传承至今，生生不息

那样拙劣的东西。”

LOOKING AT CHINA

Chinese character magic The Chinese writing system has a depth and richness the poor Western alphabet cannot compete with

By Graham Earnshaw

F

or more than four decades now, I have been obsessed by Chinese characters, the oldest writing system in the world. Obsessed may be the wrong word, better to call it enthralled. But I am constantly reminded that the power and depth possessed by Chinese characters possess is entirely lacking from the Western alphabet writing system.

Chinese characters provide a direct link to the distant past. The words carved on tortoise shells and oxen bones by necromancers three thousand years ago are to a remarkable extent still readable. The spoken language shifted and morphed over the millennia, but the written system remained largely stable and unchanged, becoming the basis of written communication not only in the areas under the rule of Han but in surrounding states as well. Korea, Japan and Vietnam all accepted and applied the Han writing system, and because the characters are fundamentally pictograms rather than phonetic representations, they made the transition to other cultures quite easily.

A global parallel is that of Arabic numerals – 1, 2, 3 – which are pronounced in a thousand ways around the world, but are written and mean exactly the same thing to all people, just as a Chinese character can be pronounced in a hundred ways and retains the same meaning throughout.

The introduction of simplified characters, of course, to some extent interrupted the historic continuity, and it may well have been intentional. I personally prefer not to use the phrase “complex characters,” and distinguish instead between “simplified” and “standard.”

I detect something of a growing interest amongst some younger Chinese people in standard Chinese as part of an overall curiosity about the past of Chinese culture, but it may just be wishful thinking on my part. But I do believe that literacy in standard Chinese is a precondition for an educated Chinese person today and for the future. I also advise non-Chinese people who are learning the Chinese language to familiarize themselves with more than just the simplified. If you know standard Chinese, the simplified characters are easy to figure out. Going the other way is harder.

Associated inextricably with Chinese characters is calligraphy. In the West, we have “penmanship.” It is not even a hundredth of the value of Chinese calligraphy, which can convey not only the meaning the word but also reveal the personality of the writer while also conveying an artistic style.

Amazing.

My hero Lin Yutang, one of the great writers of the 20th century, spoke at length about calligraphy in his book “My Country and My People,” pub-

lished in 1936 and took the view that the nature of the writing system had a profound impact on Chinese culture in many ways, not least of which is the traditional abhorrence of a straight line in architecture.

“The origin of the sagging roof, probably the most unique and obvious characteristic of Chinese architecture, has never been properly understood,” he wrote. “Some imagine a connection with the primitive tents of our nomadic days.”

And yet the reason for it is obvious in calligraphy. No one who knows the elements of Chinese calligraphy can fail to see the principle of gracefully sweeping lines.

In Chinese calligraphy the greatest difficulty is to bring about strength of stroke, as it is always difficult to give strength to a perfectly straight stroke.

On the other hand, a slight bent on either side will give it immediately a feeling of tension.”

The lack of rigid straight lines is what makes traditional Chinese structures and scenes so attractive, and Lin extends his acerbity for Western architectural simple-mindedness back into ancient Egypt. “Our love for rhythmic or wavy lines or broken lines and our hatred of straight, dead lines becomes obvious,” he said, “when it is remembered that we have never perpetrated anything quite as ugly as the Cleopatra’s Needle.”

June 2013

71

西游记

青梅与啤酒 晏格文（Graham Earnshaw）生于英国，现居上海。他以上一次落脚点为起点，行程从上海一路 向西，横贯中国。本月，他行至巫山与奉节之间的双潭乡附近。 文 | 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw )

此

时我已到达巫山、奉节两城间的山

路桥位于峡谷顶端的右侧，随着始于

区，此处位于长江以北，风景颇

深山中的河流一起在峡谷间延伸。支流处

美。我沿着一条僻静的乡间公路往下走，

的一股股清泉在此汇集，不断稀释着主流

沿途的行程牌逐渐从800米、500米缩短

河道一路冲刷而过的泥水。

“37或38。”他坚持不松口。 这从侧面反映了他并不是医生，而是 诊所的医务人员，就像我在湖北见到的那

至400米。路经一处农舍，只见外墙上写

沿着河流旁的道路我一路下行至谷

种为很多人提供静脉注射治疗的地方。我

着“牛羊牲畜不得入山，否则每头罚款

底，但这并非尽头，路面仍向西延伸，仅

问他目前人们最常得的病是什么，他回答

20-50元”。看来当地已正式展开封山行

在双潭乡稍有断开。时值夏季午后，天气

说是感冒和消化道方面的疾病。

动，山间不能再有任何农牧活动。河流以

闷热，村民们都围坐在商店和屋舍前庭的

北的山脉倒影折射出独特的风景，层峦叠

阴凉处打牌闲聊，旁边还不时传来电视里

翠，山势豪迈，让人不禁想在这处中部圣

播放的古装片对白声。我在一家小卖部买

地多呼吸几口新鲜空气。

“如果情况更严重怎么办，比如说生 了癌？” “那我就送他们去医院。”

了瓶水，周围的村民纷纷招呼我入座，身

他问我来自哪个国家，我回答说是英

途中我巧遇一位农民，他提醒我小心

旁的小孩也透过手指缝偷偷打量着我。站

国。于是他条件反射般地开始用官腔和我

高速公路上的抢劫犯，称这些人来自偏远

在我身旁的一名村民问我要到哪里去，我

探讨起国际形势。“中国是爱好和平的国

的川西地区，从不干好事。

也问了他是如何维持生计的。

家。”他表示。言语间的意思似乎是中国

“你把钱放在哪里？”他问道。“在

“我靠打麻将。”他回应道。

一直远离战争。我决定打断他的话。

我裤子口袋里。”“这不安全。你应该更

“光靠打麻将赢钱就能生存了吗？”

“这片区域有鸦片吗？”我问道。

小心才是。”他一边说一边向我展示自己

“当然！”

“山上有一些。”他回答。顿时他两

藏钱的地方。老农穿了3件颜色各异的宽 松衬衣，钱就藏在最里面一件衣服左侧的

“那你呢？”我又问了他身旁一位赤 裸着上身、脚穿人字拖的朋友。

暗袋里。他一手将钱掏出，从厚度来看应

“我也是。”他回答。

有400元左右，这对一位老农而言不算太

“其实他是医生。”前一个人插了进

差。人们总是认为自己家乡的人最诚实可

来。

靠，且不会对他人造成伤害，看来这已成

眼放光，叫道：“鸦片战争！” 我笑了笑。 出了双潭乡，峡谷豁然开阔，南面 的斜坡上可以看到铺设了一半的高速公 路—所有的桥梁和涵洞建造目前仅完成

“医生？你之前在哪里学医？”我问

了二分之一，且丝毫没有开工的迹象。

“奉节。”

农，单姓段，如今已是73岁高龄。他头戴

宅，尽管两地的直径距离仅有两三公里，但

“学了多长时间？”

一顶宽沿草帽，脚踏一双传统手工草鞋，

若沿着蜿蜒的公路行走，距离足有6公里。

“10年。”

身上的灰色衬衣也颇为得体。由于整体着

问题出在穿过峡谷的一条溪流，该流域距离

“你今年几岁呢？”

装效果十分亮眼复古，倒与他的年龄显得

长江下游还有两三公里。上桥继续前行，映

“三十好几了。”

不相称起来。另外他还提了一只小篮子，

入眼帘的是一条警示性标语，上面写着“在

“三十几呢？”

里面有两只塑料袋，一只装了青梅，另一

林间种植鸦片者将依法予以逮捕”。

“三十七八的样子。”

只装了青椒。

为了所有人都认同的普世观点。 一路下行，远处依稀可见双潭乡的屋

72

“那究竟是37还是38呢？”

June 2013

道。

此时我又碰见了一位在树下休息的老

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“我正要到双潭乡去把它们卖了，给 你一只梅子尝尝。”他告诉我。 我想付钱给他，但他拒绝了。梅子的 口感十分甜美多汁。 我问起他的生活情况，他称不错。段 老农的孩子都已参加工作，自己的身体在 这个年龄阶段也还算结实。 “你已经73岁了，那你肯定清楚地记 得毛泽东时代的情况？”我问道。他点头 称是。 “当时的生活情况如何呢？” “很好！”从语气来看这个回答要比 对今天生活的评价更为兴奋。我想一探究 竟，但又觉得这不会有假，因为当时正是 他人生的黄金时期。就在我起身的一刻他 又抓了一把梅子给我。我将他戴在我头上 的草帽还了给他，匆匆告别后又上路了。 有趣的是，当晚我与一名刚高中毕 业、正等待大学录取通知书的女孩的对 话，足以让人窥见政治光谱的另一个极 端。当时桌上的啤酒品牌是“1958”，我 看见后有感而发地说：“1958年正值中国 大跃进时期。” “大跃进？”她疑惑地问道。看来她 从未听说过这一名词，这让人有些吃惊。 行路途中我又遇见了一位与我同一方 向的妇女，她个子矮小，体态丰满，背着 一只在三峡地区极其普遍的漂亮柳条篮。

Money advice Graham Earnshaw was born in England and has been walking west from Shanghai across China since 2004, always starting each trip from exactly the last place he stopped. This month, we find him west of Wushan city

By Graham Earnshaw

I

was walking along a quiet country road in the mountains north of the Yangtze River, somewhere between the towns of Wushan and Fengjie, one of the most beautiful regions I have seen on my walk across China. I followed the road downwards, falling fast from 800 meters to 500 and then 400. I saw a sign on a farmhouse wall saying, “For every cow or goat that goes into the mountains, compensation fine of between 20 and 50 RMB.” It seemed they were serious about letting the mountains recover from the trauma of agriculture and animal husbandry. The mountains to the north of the river, the mirror image of the ones from which I had just descended, were high and wild, layer

upon layer of pristine greenness, and I applauded the decision to expand this huge lung in the center of China.

I met a peasant who told me that I should be careful on the road and watch out for highway robbers from further west in Sichuan, who he said were bad.

“Where do you put your money?” he asked me. In my trouser pocket. “Not safe. You should be more careful.” He showed me where he kept his money – he had on three loose shirts, each a different color, and on the left side of the inside one there was a secret pocket in which he kept his little stash. He pulled it out and I would guess there was 400 RMB there. Not bad for an old farmer.

The one thing everyone everywhere

我问她今年多大（当然是在她先询问我之 后），得到的答案是37或38岁。这岁数在 附近地区明显算是分水岭，尽管从体态上 看她的确像是4个孩子的母亲，农民的妻 子，但脸蛋却只有25岁的模样。 她第一个孩子今年16岁，目前正在 重庆读高中。“一年学费多少？”我很好 奇。“要1万多块，我第二个孩子的学费少 一点，只有几千块。”我又问她钱从哪里 来，她告诉她的丈夫在峡谷另一头修建高 速公路。 “他们已经在那干了3年了，听说这 个工程4年就能建好，但是你看看，这像是 明年就能完工的样子吗？” 我摇摇头，说道：“不像是，但从你 丈夫的角度来看，工期难道不是越长越好 吗？”

June 2013

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seemed to agree on was that people from their own area were fine, upstanding and posed no threat.

Down below, I could see the town of Shuangtan, a couple of kilometers away as the phoenix flies, but with six kilometers by the winding road between me and it. The problem was a little river cutting through the valley. The bridge over the torrent was a couple of kilometers upstream. “Grow opium in the forest and face prison,” threatened a slogan.

The bridge was right at the top of the valley, just where the river emerged from the thick mountains and the valley started to spread out. I watched the clear waters of a stream from a side ravine smashing into the main water course, diluting the brown water that had come a much longer way.

The road reached the base level of the valley by the river and proceeded westwards, with a brief stop at Shuangtan. It was a hot summer afternoon and everyone in the village was sitting around in the shade of the store

74

June 2013

and house fronts, playing cards or pool while a TV costume drama droned in the background. I chose one store front, ordered a bottle of water and was invited by a couple of guys to take a seat. The children stole looks at me through their fingers, and the guy next to me asked me where I was going. I asked him what he did for a living.

“I play mahjong,” he replied.

“You make enough money at it to live on?”

“Sure!”

“What about you?” I asked his friend, shirtless and wearing flipflops.

“Same,” he said.

“In fact he’s a doctor,” interjected the first guy.

“A doctor? Where did you study?”

I asked.

“Fengjie.”

“For how long?”

“Ten years.”

“How old are you?”

“Thirty something.”

“Thirty what?”

“Thirty seven or eight.”

“Thirty seven or eight, which?”

“Thirty seven or eight,” he insisted.

It transpired he was not a doctor, but rather the operator of the sort of clinic in which I had seen so many people getting intravenous fixes in Hubei province. I asked him what the most common ailments were, and he said colds and problems of the digestive tract.

“What happens if it is something more serious, like cancer?”

“Then I send them to the hospital.”

He asked me what country I come from, and I said England. He started to talk at me about international affairs from the kneejerk clichéd mouthpiece perspective. “China is a country of peace,” he said, as if it was an exception to the war-mongering rule. I decided to give him a break.

“Is there opium in this region?” I asked.

“Some in the mountains,” he said.

Then his eyes lit up. “The Opium Wars!”

I smiled.

Beyond Shuangtan, the valley wid-

ened out and on its southern slopes was the freeway-to-be – bridges and culverts all half-finished and with no sign of construction activity.

I came upon a farmer resting under a tree. He was Mr Duan, a 73 year old.

He had on a wide straw hat, a rather smart grey shirt and traditional homemade straw scandals – all seriously retro cool, and all due to disappear with his generation. He had a small basket containing two plastic bags – one with small green plums, the other with green peppers.

“I am going to Shuangtan to sell them,” he said. “Have a plum.”

I tried to pay, but he absolutely refused. The plum was juicy and sweet.

I asked about his life, and he said it was good. His children were all working, and he was in reasonable health for his age.

“At 73, you remember the Chairman Mao era very well,” I said. He nodded. “How was life then?”

“Good!” More enthusiastic than the “good” about his life today. I probed

why, and I got the sense that it was really because that had been the golden era of his own life. I stood up, and he thrust a couple more plums upon me.

I handed him his hat, which he had taken off while talking to me, and we went our own ways.

At the other end of the political spectrum, I had a conversation that evening with a girl who had just graduated from high school and was waiting for her university entrance results.

The brand of the beer on the table was 1958. “1958,” I said. “The year of the Great Leap Forward.”

“The Great Leap Forward?” she asked, puzzled. It seems she had never heard of it. Amazing.

I came upon a lady walking in the same direction wearing one of the wonderful wicker-basket backpacks found throughout the Three Gorges region. She was plump and short and when I asked her age (after she had asked mine, of course), she said she was 37 or 38 years old. Clearly a watershed age in these parts. Her face was

that of a 25 year old, even though her body was that of a farmer’s wife who had raised four children.

Her eldest child was 16 and was at senior high school in Chongqing.

School fees? “More than 10,000 RMB a year. And a few thousand for the second child.” I asked where the money came from, and the answer was that her husband worked on the freeway construction project on the other side of the valley.

“Three years they have been at it, and they said it would be finished in four years. Look at it. Do you think it will be finished next year?”

I shook my head. “No. But then from your husband’s perspective, the longer the better, right?” 勘误：上一期MICE NOW刊物 P14 《消减旅费开 支》文章中，将全球订房网大中华区负责人的 信息刊登有误。负责全球订房网大中华区业务 的是姜君女士，她是全球订房网大中华区商旅 业务董事总经理。特此更正。 Correction: An article published on page 14 of the May issue of MICE Now entitled “Cutting Travel Costs”, contained an error. The leader of Hotel Reservation Service in China is Ms. Kimi Jiang, who is Managing Director Corporate Solutions of HRS Greater China. We apologize for the error.

June 2013

75

LISTING Accounting Firms

www.lufthansa.com.cn

Fax: +86 21 2890 5200

Shanghai Community

S101 Beijing Lufthansa Center

admissions@ceibs.edu

International School (Pudong

50 Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang

Shanghai Jiaotong-Euromed

Campus)

Tel: +86 10 6468 8838

Management AEMBA Program

www.scischina.org

Northwest Airlines Airport

(MBA/EMBA)

800 Xiuyan Road, Kangqiao,

Office

www.aemba.com.cn

Pudong

www.nwa.com

Tel: +86 21 5230 1598

Tel: +86 21 5812 9888

32271 Passenger Terminal 2,

Fax: +86 21 5230 3357

Fax:+86 21 5812 9000

Capital International Airport

aemba@sjtu.edu.cn

British International School

Tel: +86 010 6459 7827 Harris Corporate Services Ltd www.harrissec.com.cn

Business Schools

Shanghai - Pudong Campus www.bisshanghai.com 600 Cambridge Forest New

Shanghai Office

Shanghai

Town, Lane 2729 Hunan Road,

Suite 904, OOCL Plaza,

Fudan University - Washington

Pudong

841 Yan An Zhong Road,

University EMBA

Tel: +86 21 5812 7455

Jing’An,

www.olin.wustl.edu/shanghai

Shanghai, PRC

(English)

Tel: +86 21 6289 8813

www.fdms.edu.cn/olin (Chinese)

Fax:+86 21 6289 8816

Room 710, 670 Guoshun Road

Harrow International School

Four Seasons Hotel Shanghai

info.sh@harrissec.com.cn

Shanghai, China, 200433

Beijing

www.fourseasons.com/shanghai

Beijing Office

Tel: +86 21 5566 4788

www.harrowbeijing.cn

500 Weihai Road, Shanghai

Room 2302, E-Tower, No.12

Fax: +86 21 6565 4103

No. 5, 4th Block, Anzhenxili

Tel: +86 21 6256 8888

Guanghua Road, Chaoyang,

Chaoyang, Beijing 100029

Fax: +86 21 6256 5678

Beijing, PRC

PRC

reservations.shg@fourseasons.

Tel: +86 10 6591 8087

Tel: +86 10 6444 8900

com

Fax: +86 10 8599 9882

Fax: +86 10 6445 3870

Grand Mercure Hongqiao

agan@harrowbeijing.cn

Shanghai

info.bj@harrissec.com.cn

Hotels Shanghai

Guangzhou Office

Manchester Business School

www.grandmercurehongqiao.com

Room D-E, 11/F, Yueyun

Part-time Global MBA

369 Xian Xia Road, Chang Ning

Building

http://china.portals.mbs.ac.uk

Shanghai

3 Zhongshan 2nd Road

Starts July 2013, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 5153 3300

Guangzhou, PRC

Suite 628, 6/F Shanghai Centre,

Fax: +86 21 5153 3555

Tel: +86 20 8762 0508

1376 Nanjing Road West,

reservation@

Fax: +86 20 3762 0543

Shanghai

Saint Paul American School

grandmercurehongqiao-shanghai.

info.gz@harrissec.com.cn

Tel: +86 21 6279 8660

www.stpaulschool.cn

com

Hong Kong Office

mba@mbs-worldwide.ac.cn

18 Guan Ao Yuan, Longgang

7/F, Hong Kong Trade Centre

Tongji University SIMBA

Road Qinghe, Haidian, Beijing

161-167 Des Voeux Road Central

A309 Sino-French Center, Tongji

100192

Beijing

Hong Kong, PRC

University, 1239 Siping Road

PRC

Beijing Deco Personal Services

Tel: +852 2541 6632

Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 137 1881 0084

Ltd.

Fax: +852 2541 9339

Tel: +86 21 6598 0610

spasadmissions@gmail.com

china.adecco.com

info@harrissec.com.hk

Fax: +86 21 6598 3540

Shanghai

D 9/F Tower II China Central

China Europe Int’l Business

Livingston American School

Place, 79 Jianguo Road,

Airlines

76

International Schools

HR/Recruitment

School

www.laschina.org

Chaoyang, Beijing

Beijing

(CEIBS) MBA

580 Ganxi Road

Tel: +86 010 5920 4320

Lufthansa German Airlines

www.ceibs.edu

Tel: +86 21 6238 3511

Fax: +86 010 5920 4322

Beijing Office

Tel: +86 21 2890 5555

Fax:+86 21 5218 0390

beijing.cn@adecco.com

June 2013

Guangdong

Ketchum Newscan Public

Block 1-4, No. 888

Leasing@sandhill.cn

Levin Human Resources

Relations

Changning Road

Shenyang

Development (Guangzhou) Ltd.

www.ketchum.com

Shanghai, 200042

Shenyang International

www.levin.com.hk

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

Software Park

V15 4/F Goldlion Digital Network

218 Tianmu Road West

leasing@parkview-sh.com

No.860-1 Shangshengou,

Center, 138 Tiyu Road East,

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Belvedere Service Apartments

Dongling, Shenyang City,

Tianhe, Guangzhou, Guangdong

Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

www.belvedere.com.cn

Liaoning Province, 110167

Tel: +86 020 2886 0665

Beijing

Belvedere Service Apartments

Tel: +86 24 8378 0500

Fax: +86 020 3878 1801

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

833 Changning Road, Shanghai

Fax: +86 24 8378 0528

info@levin.com.hk

Chaoyang

200050

Shanghai

Tel: +86 10 5907 0055

Tel: +86 21 6213 2222

ADP China

Fax: +86 10 5907 0188

Fax: +86 21 6251 0000

www.adpchina.com

Ogilvy Group

leasing@belvedere.com.cn

30/F Golden Bell Plaza, 98

www.ogilvy.com

Lanson Place Central Park

Huaihai Road Central, Shanghai

Beijing

Residences

Tel: +86 021 2326 7999

9/F Huali Building, 58 Jinbao

enquiry.lpcp@lansonplace.com

Fax: +86 021 2326 7998

Street, Dongcheng

Tower 23, Central Park

Marketing_China@cn.adp.com

Tel: +86 10 8520 6000

No. 6 Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Hudson Recruitment

Fax: +86 10 8520 6060

Chaoyang, Beijing 100020

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

Tel: +86 10 8588 9588

Development Co., Ltd

Fax: +86 10 8588 9599

www.antinganting.com.cn

Shanghai

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

Road, Shanghai

Lanson Place Jin Qiao Serviced

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 2321 7888

Residences

Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

shresume@hudson.com

enquiry.lpjq@lansonplace.com

Fax: +86 21 6950 2833

No. 27 & 28, Lane 399 Zao

jean.liu@chongbang.com

(Shanghai) Co., Ltd. 2302-2303, 2201-2206 Hongyi International Plaza, 288 Jiujiang

Real Estate/ Serviced Apartments

Language Schools

Zhuang Road, Pudong, Shanghai 200136

Real Estate/HOPSCA

Service Providers

PRC Tel: +86 21 5013 3888 Savills Residence Century Park

Fax: +86 21 5013 3666

www.savillsresidence.com No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu Road Pudong, Shanghai 201303,

Real Estate/ Business Park

PRC MandarinKing

Tel: +86 21 5197 6688

QC Integra

www.mandarinking.cn

info@savillsresidence.com

www.qcintegra.com

Shanghai

Hongkong Office

No.555 West Nanjing Road,

Jervois Street, Sheung Wang,

Room 1207 12th Floor, Plaza

HK

555 Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +852 3008 5805 Shanghai Office

Course Inquiry: 400 618 6685 Office Tel: +86 21 6209 1063

Sandhill Plaza

HuaYuan World Square, North

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 8671

www.sandhillplaza.cn

Zhongshan Road, Putuo District,

study@mandarinking.cn

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

Shanghai, China

Park View Apartment

Hi-Tech Park, Shanghai 201303

Tel: +86 21 6071 0550/0551

wwww.parkview-sh.com

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

info@qcintegra.com

PR Agencies

June 2013

77

LISTING Serviced Offices

BEIJING (12 LOCATIONS)

15/F One Corporate Avenue

Regus China World Tower 3

222 Hubin Road

15/F China World Tower 3,

Luwan District

1 Jianguomenwai Avenue

Regus Jin Mao Tower

Chaoyang District

31/F Jin Mao Tower

CHENDU (3 LOCATIONS)

88 Shiji Avenue

Regus Yanlord Landmark

Lujiazui, Pudong

Apollo Business Center

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Regus One Prime

Apollo Huaihai Center [New]

Vantone Commercial Center

Tower

25 F, One Prime

4/F, Fuxing Commercial Building

www.VantoneCommercialCenter.com

No.1, Section 2, Renmin South

No. 360, Wu Jin Road,

139 Ruijin Road (No.1)

Level 26 & 27, Tower D, Vantone

Road

Hongkou District,

Huangpu

Center, No 6 Chaowai Ave

Jinjiang District

SHENZHEN (5 LOCATIONS)

Shanghai

Chaoyang, Beijing

CHONGQING

Regus Futian NEO

Tel: 021-6136-6088

Tel: +86 10 5905 5905

Regus Yangtze River

44/F, NEO Tower A

Apollo Flagship Center

Chong Hing Finance Centre

International Plaza

6011 Shennan Avenue

Apollo Building

Level 12, Chonghing Finance

33/F Yangtze River International

Futian District

1440 Yan’an Road (M)

Centre, 288 Nanjing West Road,

Plaza

Regus New World Centre

Jing’an

Huangpu

22 Nanbin Road

(NEW)

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6062 7183

Nanan District

23/F, New World Center,

Tel: 021-6133-1888

Shanghai@executivecentre.com

DALIAN

No. 6009, Yitian Road,

Apollo Tomson Center

The Executive Centre

Regus Dalian World Trade

Futian District

22/F, Tomson Commercial

Shanghai

Center

SUZHOU

Building

International Finance Centre

12/F, 25 Tongxing Street

Regus Suzhou JinHope plaza

710 Dongfang Road

Level 8, International Finance

Zhongshan District

(COMING SOON)

Pudong

Center, 8 Century Avenue, Pudong

GUANGZHOU (5 LOCATIONS)

11/F, Tower2, Jin Hope Plaza

Shanghai

CITIC Square

Regus G.T. Land Plaza (NEW)

88 Hua Chi Street, SIP

Tel: 021-6165-2288

Level 35, CITIC Square, 1168

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

Apollo Xuhui Center

Nanjing West Road, Jing’an

G.T. Land Plaza, No. 85

Regus Tianjin Centre

16/F, Feidiao International Building

Xintiandi

Huacheng Avenue

8/F Tianjin Centre

1065 Zhaojiabang Road

Level 5, Xintiandi, 159 Madang

Tian He District

No.219 Nanjing Road

Xuhui

Road, Luwan

HANGZHOU (4 LOCATIONS)

Heping District

Shanghai

The Centre

Regus Euro American Centre

WUHAN

Tel: 021-5158-1688

Level 20,The Centre, 989

4/F Euro America Center

Regus Wuhan Tiandi –

Apollo Hongqiao Center

Changle Road, Xuhui

18 Jiaogong Road,

Corporate Centre 5

26/F, New Town Center Building

Chong Hing Finance Centre

Xihu District

8F, Wuhan Tiandi – Corporate

83 Loushanguan Road

Level 12, Chonghing Finance

NANJING

Center 5, No. 1628 Zhong Shan

Changning

Centre, 288 Nanjing West Road,

Regus Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Avenue

Shanghai

Huangpu

Tower (COMING SOON)

Jiang’an District

Tel: 021-3133-2688

Tel: +86 21 6062 7183

8 F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Shanghai@executivecentre.com

Tower, No. 2, Hanzhong Road,

To have your company featured in these pages, please contact our

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如想刊登贵公司信息，敬请联系如下负责人：

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Jing’an District

中国上海市淮海中路138号上海广场2205 邮编：200021

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June 2013

APRIL 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 4 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

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