SCENARIO PLANNING
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SHANNON VANDERHILL DMGT 783: DESIGN FUTURES, TRENDS AND FORESIGHT WINTER 2016 PROFESSOR TOM HARDY
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
04
THE BRAND
06
2020: FIVE YEAR SCENARIO
12
2025: TEN YEAR SCENARIO
26
2035: TWENTY YEAR SCENARIO
40
LESSONS LEARNED
54
REFERENCES
56
INTRODUCTION
WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING?
Scenario planning is a method for creating
UNCERTAINTY
strategic dialogue. It aims to illuminate future possibilities
through
insightful
narratives.
Scenarios are not predictions but thoughtful and compelling indications of possible futures based on a deep understanding of social, technological, environmental, economic, and political driving forces.
TIME 5
THE BRAND
ABOUT AMAZON
LARGEST PROVIDER OF CLOUD INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES IN THE U.S.
LARGEST INTERNET-BASED RETAILER IN THE U.S.
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS
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BRAND MYTH
Obsessed with customers. Unconcerned with competition. Do everything. Do anything.
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DESCRIPTORS
RATIONAL
FRUGAL
TRUSTWORTHY
RESOURCEFUL
Doing more with less
Dependable and responsive
Scrappy amidst challenges
We believe that constraints produce better results.
We listen attentively to our customers and employees.
We take advantage of any and all resources.
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DESCRIPTORS
EMOTIONAL
UNLIMITED
INVENTIVE
CURIOUS
Unbounded by conventions
Abounding with new ideas
Seeking the new and improved
We do not limit ourselves by what is or has been.
We are smart risk-takers, unafraid of the new.
We never know too much or do too many things.
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CHALLENGE QUESTION
How can Amazon prepare to address shifting customer preferences for retail experiences?
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2020: FIVE YEAR SCENARIO
2020: DRIVING FORCES
SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLITICAL
BOOMERS & MILLENNIALS
WEB & MORTAR
BOOMING BOOMERS
FRESHEN UP
PRIVATE LIFE
Boomer (aging but energetic) and Millennial (savvy and connected) preferences will drive the market.
Ecommerce sites will augment their customer experience with brick and mortar locations.
Baby Boomers will retire with substantial savings and become big spenders in coming years.
Consumers will demand transparency from food companies.
Consumers will expect tailored experiences but not at the expense of their privacy.
WORLDS COLLIDE
AD INTOLERANT
SHARING IS CARING
SECRETS, SECRETS...
Augmented reality will connect the consumer’s physical environment to the digital environment.
Millennial and Generation Z will respond to the influence their perceived peers and grow annoyed with ads.
Resource scarcity and a distaste for materialism will cause consumers to share property peer-to-peer.
Social commerce will become commonplace and consumers will demand transparency.
KIND COMPANIES Conscious consumers will choose to support socially responsible companies.
I’LL TRADE YOU SOCIAL SHOPPING
HIT PRINT
HEY, NEIGHBOR
SUSTAINABLE REPS
Social networks will become shopping networks. Like-tobuy is just the beginning.
3D printing technology will become a household appliance.
Global companies will tailor to their local environments and customer preferences.
Companies will leverage a sustainable reputation to attract customers.
Free trade with more Asian countries will create market growth but increase competitions.
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2020: CERTAINTY & SIGNIFICANCE OF DRIVING FORCES
COLOR KEY SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLITICAL
14
2020: PRIMARY DRIVING FORCES CAUSE & EFFECT
ECONOMIC CAUSES
SOCIAL EFFECT
• Retired Boomers, Millennials, and Generation Z preferences • Companies move away from mass advertising • Tailored local experiences.
Customer touch points will become increasingly integrated into every day experiences, relationships, and local environments. Companies will reach consumers by getting to know them.
ENVIRONMENTAL CAUSES
ECONOMIC EFFECT
• Emergence of the sharing economy • Increased consumer pressure for transparency • Increase in number of sustainable companies
The success of companies will be tied to their sustainability. Customers will have more sustainable choices in the marketplace. They will choose to patronize green companies at little extra cost.
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2020: SWOT
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
• Strong online selling
• Brand confusion
platform
because of diversity
• Brick & mortar stores
• Lack of transparency
opening across U.S.
about work conditions
• Customer-centric
• Technology lags behind
philosophy
competitors
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
• To engage customers
• Asian competitors could
through social media
gain U.S. market share
• To leverage systems for
• Competitors offer
social and green good
greener shipping
• To enhance the retail
• Local competitors
experience through AR
attract local customers
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2020: SCENARIO LOGIC DIAGRAM
ENVIRONMENTAL
UNSUSTAINABLE
ECONOMIC PROSPERITY
STAGNATION
ENVIRONMENTAL
ECONOMIC
SUSTAINABLE
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2020: BOOK COVER & ABSTRACT
out of touch Amazon is facing threats to its market share that have developed in the last 5 years. Customers are choosing to patronize the company’s competitors, who are succeeding at addressing their needs for transparency,
sustainability,
and
tailored
experiences. Amazon will strike back with a retail experience that reflects customers locally and personally, and rewrite their corporate practices to mirror the ideals of their customers. Customers respond to the changes, remembering why they loved Amazon to begin with. 18
2020: PLOT LINE
SETUP
Amazon’s Planning Department is anticipating shifts in consumer preferences for retail experiences. They need to anticipate these changes and adjust their business model accordingly.
RISING ACTION
In 5 years, Baby Boomers and Millennials will drive consumption. Because of Millennial skepticism and unmaterialistic tendencies, companies will give up mass advertising in favor of personalized customer experiences. Companies will try to reach customers individually, as well as through their communities with retail spaces tailored to local tastes. Companies will need to know their customers in order to reach them. Millennials will also drive business towards sustainability and transparency. Green will no longer be a luxury, but an imperative.
TURNING POINT
Amazon will face competition from local retail stores who are better equipped to address the needs of their neighborhoods. The novelty of Amazon Books has largely worn off and customers have returned to using the online platform for most book purchases. Though customers choose to shop online, they become dissatisfied with the unsustainable packaging and shipping practices at Amazon, and seek alternatives. Criticism of Amazon’s workplace culture has reached it’s peak, tainting the brand image and swaying once loyal customers.
FALLING ACTION
To get back on track, Amazon strategically decreases the number of Amazon Books locations and expands its retail presence into Amazon Up, stores that sell products rated highly on Amazon.com, curated based on customer data from that area. Sustainable shipping practices becomes a focal point for the brand. Amazon begins to use compostable filler, easy break-down boxes, and will offer in store pickup for customers near Up locations. Corporate Amazon will revamp its workplace image through culture initiatives and tours of its distribution and corporate facilities.
CONCLUSION
Amazon has managed to regain the trust of its loyal customers and create new ways for those customers to shop with the company. The company is connecting more closely with customers through locally-oriented retail spaces and access to its facilities. Customers feel that they know Amazon, and Amazon knows them.
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2020: SCENARIO
SETUP In 2016, Amazon is the largest internet-based retailer in the United States. The company that began as an online bookstore has diversified to include an astounding inventory of products, streaming services, consumer electronics, and cloud computing services. The planning side of proudly customer-centric company, Amazon’s Planning Department is working to anticipate shifts in consumer preferences for retail experiences coming in the next 5 years. They want to anticipate these changes and adjust their business model accordingly.
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2020: SCENARIO
RISING ACTION In 5 years time, Baby boomers and Millennials will be driving consumption in the United States. Boomers will be retiring in greater and greater numbers, and accessing their hard-earned 401ks. These retirees will take their purchasing cues from their knowledgeable and tech-savvy children of the Millennial generation. Boomers will depend on their children to advise them on major purchases, especially where technology is involved. Millennials are great product researchers and are in the loop on hot new products. Millennials themselves will be mid-career, and able to spend their growing salaries. The Millennial generation cherishes experiences over material things. It is important to them that the companies they patronize share their values. When making purchasing decisions, they will choose to support socially conscious companies and will influence their parents to do so as well. In terms of experiences, companies will need to provide unique offerings to attract Millennials who are known to have a short attention span. Technology will play a large role in creating customer experiences that fuse the digital with the real to surprise, delight, and integrate brands into the lives of consumers.
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2020: SCENARIO
TURNING POINT As a result, Amazon will take advantage of social networking and create initiatives for supporting social change through consumerism. Amazon will be on the cutting edge of social networking, making sure they are connecting with customers in an honest and contemporary way. They will integrate themselves and their offerings into the media streams that customers encounter everyday. Amazon will create opportunities for customers to support causes through their purchases and engagement with the brand. Their media presence will be focused on engaging customers in social change, creating a friendly and relatable public face for the Amazon. The company will also establish a presence in physical retail spaces, creating a physical connection with its customers. Amazon will use these spaces to address the missing links in its current retail experience by developing a sense of community and giving customers the opportunity to try products before purchasing. Highly rated items tailored to local preferences will be available to try and shipped via Amazon prime after an instore purchase. The retail spaces will use augmented reality technology to enable customers to visualize potential purchases not available in store. The company will secure its place in both the physical and digital retail world, engaging customers through any and all touch points. The digital retail experience and the physical retail experience of Amazon will be intertwined, creating a single, seamless customer experience. Buying from Amazon will become second nature.
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2020: SCENARIO
FALLING ACTION Through its physical and digital expansion, Amazon will close the gap between their retail spaces and grow into an even more indispensable resource for customers. Customers will engage with Amazon physically through retail stores, digitally through ecommerce and social media, and virtually through augmented reality technology. The brand will interweave into their day-to-day lives and become familiar and automatic. Amazon will not only be the most convenient option, but also the most socially conscious, the most familiar, and the most dependable. Customers will be able to impulse buy items without guilt, knowing that their hard-earned money is not only providing them pleasure but also improving the world. Amazon will give customers a variety of causes their purchases can support. Amazon’s retail spaces will become a part of routine shopping expeditions. Tailored to local customer preferences, they will fill the gap between online mega-store and a neighborhood shopping experience. Customer trust in Amazon will build as their connection to customers deepens through all of their brand touch points.
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2020: SCENARIO
CONCLUSION By the year 2020, Amazon will have grown and established itself as a fundamental and omnipresent local and digital experience for customers. Customers will depend on Amazon for basic necessities and splurges, knowing that they are purchasing from a responsible and responsive company.
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2020: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE BRAND
• Strategic Amazon Books locations • Amazon Up - highly rated, localized • Green brand - packaging and shipping • Workplace culture initiatives • Facilities tours - community engagement
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2025: TEN YEAR SCENARIO
2025: DRIVING FORCES
SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLITICAL
UBER URBANIZATION
I CALL SHOTGUN
CHINA CHANGES
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
EU ADJUSTMENTS
Americans will move to major cities for amenities and knowledge economy jobs.
Self-driving vehicles will change the rules of the road and the way goods travel cross-country.
China will make the shift from a manufacturing economy to a consumer-led economy.
Solar and hydro energy will significantly reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
Migrants will change the fabric of European culture and consumer preferences.
KIDS THESE DAYS
Q&A
EU ECONOMIES
ORGANIC FARMING
As Earth’s population continues to rise, Millennial and Generation Z will not feel compelled to have kids.
As the availability of answers increases so too will the value of good questions from creative humans.
The EU will continue to struggle with unstable economies among its members.
Agriculture in developed nations will become totally organic.
POWER OF ENERGY Reduced dependence on fossil fuel sources will shift dynamics in the Middle East.
MAJOR MINORITY THE COMPANY WE KEEP
BRAIN TO PC
BUYING POWER
GREEN IS LAW
Care-giving and companionship will be supplemented by robots.
Humans will be able to communicate with their technology directly.
Emerging economies in Asia will drastically change the market.
Developed nations will make environmentalism the law of the land.
Minorities in the U.S. will become the majority and significantly shift voter representation.
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2025: CERTAINTY & SIGNIFICANCE OF DRIVING FORCES
COLOR KEY SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLITICAL
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2025: PRIMARY DRIVING FORCES CAUSE & EFFECT
TECHNOLOGICAL CAUSES
SOCIAL EFFECT
• Self-driving vehicles rule the road
Computers become a true extension of the human, mediating day-to-day interactions with the environment and other humans.
• Computers require human curiosity • Brain-to-computer communication
SOCIAL CAUSES
ECONOMIC EFFECT
• People move to major cities for jobs
Major cities become hubs for an aging population with fewer children. Urban, adult, and single lifestyle choices drive consumerism.
• Millennials and Zs indifferent to children • Care-giving supplemented by robots
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2025: SWOT
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
• Successful consumer
• High operating costs in
electronics
expensive cities
• Diverse offerings in
• Siloed corporate
ecommerce
structure
• Culture of innovation
• Single corporate office
ready for change
in U.S.
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
• To leverage existing
• Competitors with
systems
advanced AR and AI
• To invest in a fleet of
• Competitors reaching
self-driving vehicles
Asian markets
• To create new services
• Flat organizations
for urban adults
compete in innovation
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2025: SCENARIO LOGIC DIAGRAM
SOCIAL
DISCORD
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT
REGRESSION
SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
HARMONY
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2020: BOOK COVER & ABSTRACT 2025:
[re]invention Amazon’s competitive environment has shifted dramatically once again. Millennials living in burgeoning megacities will drive consumerism by 2025. Self-driving cars will forever alter the rules of the road, and brain-to-computer communication will be the new norm. Companies that have adapted their corporate structures to drive innovation and meet the needs of shifting user groups will thrive. Amazon must make significant changes to keep up and make itself a seamless part of its users daily experiences and interactions. The question is... How will they manage it? 32
2025: PLOT LINE
SETUP
After a bumpy five years, Amazon has managed to regain the trust of its loyal customers and create new ways for those customers to shop with the company. Customers feel that they know Amazon, and Amazon knows them.
RISING ACTION
Self-driving vehicles will rule the road, while brain-to-computer communication will quickly become the norm. Humans will be experiencing computers as a truer extension of themselves, and they will now mediate most interactions between humans, and between humans and their environments. Urbanization will escalate, with most of the world’s population living in major cities. Millennials and Generation Z will no longer feel that it is a necessary part of life to have children, which will result in urban, adult, and single lifestyle choices driving consumerism.
TURNING POINT
The boom in urbanization means business will be concentrated in expensive cities. The company will be dealing with issues in its corporates structure, as many of its departments are siloed and unable to effectively communicate. Amazon will struggle to keep up with competitors in the consumer electronics category. The company will be almost locked out of Asia by competitors who have secured footholds in China and India. And the company’s competitive environment will become increasingly treacherous as flat organizations beat Amazon to create innovative products.
FALLING ACTION
Amazon will combat these forces by pushing for innovation. The company will flatten its organization and distribute it across the world in several of the burgeoning megacities. Amazon will invest heavily in the development of Echo and smart home accessories, making it the most ubiquitous AI technology in the world. Amazon will be among the first to invest in a fleet of self-driving vehicles, allowing them to expand their shipping services to include transportation of people, as well as products.
CONCLUSION
By 2030, Amazon will have reinvented itself to maintain relevance in a shifting landscape. It’s corporate structure, its technology, and it’s shipping will take leaps to meet customer expectations. Amazon’s customers will find that Amazon is everywhere: in their homes, on their commute, and on their minds.
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2025: SCENARIO
SETUP After a bumpy five years, Amazon has managed to regain the trust of its loyal customers and create new ways for those customers to shop with the company. The company is connecting more closely with consumers through locally-oriented retail spaces and transparent access to its facilities. Once again, customers feel that they know Amazon, and Amazon knows them. But 2025 is looming, and customer preferences are again shifting dramatically due to technological and social changes. Amazon once again finds itself in a turbulent competitive environment.
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2025: SCENARIO
RISING ACTION 2025 will see that technology has advanced exponentially, and will have changed the way that humans engage with the world around them. Humans will be ever closer to reaching the singularity, a day when humans will be irrevocably altered by technology, maybe even indistinguishable from it. But in 2025, this will manifest as self-driving vehicles ruling the road and brain-to-computer communication will have quickly become the norm. Humans will be experiencing computers as a truer extension of themselves, and they will now mediate most interactions between humans, and between humans and their environments. Self-driving vehicles will mean fewer accidents, and more time in the hands of users, while brain-computer communication will mean subconscious access and control of the internet of things. Urbanization will escalate, resulting in most of the world’s population residing in major cities. Millennials and Generation Z will no longer feel that it is a necessary part of life to have children, which will result in urban, adult, and single lifestyle choices driving consumerism. SINKS and DINKS of this generation will have money to spend on recreation. Some thrifty ones may even retire in their 30s. But what does all this mean for Amazon?
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2025: SCENARIO
TURNING POINT Amazon will be facing new competitive challenges during these shifts in their environment. The boom in urbanization will mean that business will be concentrated in expensive cities, creating high operating costs for the company. The company will be dealing with issues in its corporates structure, as many of its departments are siloed and unable to effectively communicate. It will become apparent that the old hierarchy will slow Amazon’s ability to innovate. Also, the company will continue to maintain only one corporate office in the U.S. This will mean that their knowledge workers will be concentrated in Seattle, leaving them ill informed of dynamics in the other major cities around the world. Major cities will have distinct cultural identities and unique user groups that Amazon will struggle to connect with. Amazon will also struggle to keep up with competitors in the consumer electronics category, whose AR and VR technology is advancing swiftly. The company will be almost locked out of Asia by competitors who have secured footholds in China and India. And the company’s competitive environment will become increasingly treacherous as flat organizations beat Amazon to create innovative services and products.
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2025: SCENARIO
FALLING ACTION Amazon will combat these forces by pushing for innovation. The company will flatten its organization and distribute it across the world in several of the burgeoning megacities. Offices in Shanghai, Mumbai, and Singapore will focus on addressing the needs of Asian customers, meeting them where they are. In consumer electronics, Amazon will compete by investing heavily in the development of Echo and smart home accessories, with the goal of making it the most ubiquitous AI technology in the world. Echo will be a second mind for its users, enabling them to subconsciously control their homes and products. Amazon will be among the first to invest in a fleet of self-driving vehicles, allowing them to expand their shipping services to include transportation of people, as well as products. Amazon’s services will expand with technology, creating lead-ins to their retail experience that are seamless and natural. Echo will augment users experience at home, while self-driving vehicles change the way Amazon ships goods and people. By leveraging their existing, reliable, but up-to-date services, Amazon will respond to shifts like it saw them coming.
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2025: SCENARIO
CONCLUSION By the year 2025, Amazon will have reinvented itself to maintain relevance in a shifting landscape. Amazon’s customers will find that Amazon is everywhere: in their homes, on their commute, and on their minds. The company will be prepared to shift with the tides because of its long-standing culture of innovation. Amazon will rise to the occasion, and its users/customers will expect no less.
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2025: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE BRAND
• Change to flat organization • Distributed corporate offices in megacities • Heavy investment in Echo and its accessories • Fleet of self-driving vehicles
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2035: TWENTY YEAR SCENARIO
2035: DRIVING FORCES
SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLITICAL
WORKING FROM AFAR
AUTOMATION
MONEY IN ENERGY
POPULATION STRAIN
NETWORKS
Distributed workforces will be the norm. People in the future will live where they desire.
Robots will become affordable and manageable. They will automate many unexpected processes.
Energy companies that have diversified will continue to succeed and grow.
A growing population will strain energy resources. Alternative energy will become the norm.
Nations will organize themselves into networks of allied states.
TERRIFYING WEAPONS
TERROR WANING FLAT ORGANIZATIONS The organizational structure of many companies will shift. Workers will be more productive and involved in company decision-making.
SINGULARITY Technology will irreversibly change the human race.
30 megacities will be home to all humankind.
CLIMATE CATASTROPHES Rapid climate change will shift weather patterns across the world creating natural disasters and disruption.
Though recruiting will wane for terror groups, access to advanced weapons will increase. Mass-casualty events will be more likely.
MUTUAL DEPENDENCE MATERIAL SCIENCE
MEGACITIES
Terror groups will be less appealing to the youth as economies in the third world improve.
Materials like aerogel and graphene will become ubiquitous.
A growing population will strain all resources, creating interdependence between nations in need of food, water, and energy.
CLOSING GENDER GAP URBAN NEEDS New urban centers will demand water and land resources.
Women will play an increasing role in government, decreasing corruption.
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2035: CERTAINTY & SIGNIFICANCE OF DRIVING FORCES
COLOR KEY SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLITICAL
42
2035: PRIMARY DRIVING FORCES CAUSE & EFFECT
TECHNOLOGICAL CAUSES
ECONOMIC EFFECT
• Robots and automation are ubiquitous
There will be little distinction between human and computer. The economy will be increasingly based on knowledge as automation frees humans from manual labor.
• Advanced materials become affordable • Tech will irreversibly alter humanity
ENVIRONMENTAL CAUSES
POLITICAL EFFECT
• Energy will come from alternative sources
Climate change and resources will determine the location of the growing urban centers. Companies will headquarter where resources are greatest.
• Climate change shifts weather patterns • Urban centers strain resources
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2035: SWOT
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
• Warehouses will be
• Need a unique product
automated
offering: Amazon’s iPod
• Motivated and
• Physical assets in
educated workforce
climate danger zones
• Diverse products and
• Relationships with
services secure future
foreign suppliers
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
• To leverage shipping
• Competitors in shipping
system as service
as megacities grow
• To provide shipping for
• Mass-casualty terror
vital national resources
events in megacities
• To distribute workers
• More focused
globally
competitors win
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2035: SCENARIO LOGIC DIAGRAM
ENVIRONMENTAL
UNSUSTAINABLE
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT
REGRESSION
ENVIRONMENTAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
SUSTAINABLE
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2020: BOOK COVER & ABSTRACT 2035:
stranger It’s 2035.
Augmented humans are lobbying
Congress, there is a new executive department of Technology, megacities are the hub of most consumerism, and near-space travel is a nice vacation option. Amazon is in a weakened state, threatened by startups and plagued by confusion. The company suffers from a lack of focus. Company culture will be in a state of near-constant change as humans advance in synchronicity with their technology. To win in this market, Amazon will need to become a part of its customers. 2035 is looking pretty strange, but Amazon just might be stranger. 46
2035: PLOT LINE
SETUP
Amazon has always risen to the occasion, and its users/customers expect no less. But 2035 is around the corner, and customer preferences are shifting ever more quickly. Can Amazon keep up?
RISING ACTION
In 2035, robots and automation will be ubiquitous. Advanced materials like aerogel and graphene will become affordable, and will have changed the way that the world is built. The singularity will be on the verge of occurring. Cyborgs will create a civil rights group called Alliance for the Fair Treatment of Augmented Persons or AFTAP. And a new United States Cabinet department called the Department of Technology. The U.S. will be almost completely energy independent. Resources will be strained by growing urban centers.
TURNING POINT
After years of supporting Amazon, customers will expect a standout, one-of-a-kind product offering. Where is Amazon’s “iPod?” The company finds that its more focused competitors are winning in the market. The diverse offerings of Amazon products, once an asset, will become confusing to consumers. The company’s retail and shipping services will be facing innovative and agile local startups, whose small size will allow them the flexibility to meet changing customer preferences quickly. Serious changes will be needed for Amazon to survive.
FALLING ACTION
Amazon’s Alexa will become the choice interface for Cyborgs. Amazon will create a line of bionic products to augment humans, allowing each person the liberty of choosing the accessory for their needs. Amazon’s workforce will consist largely of augmented humans/cyborgs, giving the company another edge in innovation. Artificial intelligence will also make it into the company’s warehouses and distribution centers. Full automation will free Amazon to move the warehouses at any time without disrupting local economies or incurring great expenses in hiring and training programs.
CONCLUSION
Amazon has once again succeeded in overcoming and thriving amidst challenges. The company’s well-known innovativeness and reliability will win the day when humans are no longer just human, and megacities need the security of Amazon’s shipping services. 2035 will be strange, and so will Amazon.
47
2035: SCENARIO
SETUP Amazon has reinvented itself to maintain relevance in a shifting competitive landscape. Amazon’s customers now find that Amazon is everywhere: in their homes, on their commute, and on their minds. The company has been be prepared to shift with the tides because of its long-standing culture of innovation. Amazon has always risen to the occasion, and its users/customers expect no less. But 2035 is around the corner, and customer preferences are shifting ever more quickly. Can Amazon keep up?
48
2035: SCENARIO
RISING ACTION In 2035, robots and automation will be ubiquitous. Because of the shift in labor, the economy will be increasing based on knowledge. Humans, free from manual labor, will strive to contribute by asking questions, doing research, and specializing. Advanced materials like aerogel and graphene will become affordable, and will have changed the way that the world is built. Products will be lighter, buildings will be better insulated, and near-space travel will be a vacation option. The singularity will be on the verge of occurring, as artificial intelligence and nanotechnology augments the minds of those open to it. Cyborgs will create a civil rights group called Alliance for the Fair Treatment of Augmented Persons or AFTAP. And a new United States Cabinet department called the Department of Technology whose purview will be to “ensure the wellbeing of Americans through the advancement of technology and intelligence.� The Secretary of Technology will be staffed by artificial intelligence as well as cyborgs and report directly to the President and Chief of Staff. Once the parent department of Department of Technology, the Department of Energy in 2035 will be responsible for the stable production of alternative energy in the United States. The U.S. will be almost completely energy independent, with the only energy purchased from foreign source occurring on foreign soil as abroad military bases, corporate offices, and the like. Resources will be strained by growing urban centers. The locations of emerging megacities will be determined by the stability of the locations climate and its access to vital resources.
49
2035: SCENARIO
TURNING POINT 2035 will mean great challenges for Amazon. Their weaknesses in the marketplace will become stark and unavoidable. After years of supporting Amazon, customers will expect a standout, one-of-a-kind product offering. Where is Amazon’s “iPod?” The company finds that its more focused competitors are winning in the market. The diverse offerings of Amazon products, once an asset, will become confusing to consumers. The company will also find that once great distribution and warehouse locations will be in danger from climate change, while some retail locations will see little traffic as lesser cities slowly diminish. Megacities on the rise will become harsh centers of competition for Amazon. The company’s retail and shipping services will be facing innovative and agile local startups, whose small size will allow them the flexibility to meet changing customer preferences quickly. Serious changes will be needed for Amazon to survive.
50
2035: SCENARIO
FALLING ACTION Amazon, a known leader in innovation, will meet these changes more slowly than a startup, but not by much! After years of investing heavily in Echo, Amazon’s Alexa will be ready to become the choice interface for Cyborgs. Amazon will create a line of bionic products to augment humans, allowing each person the liberty of choosing the accessory for their needs. Amazon’s workforce will consist largely of augmented humans/cyborgs, giving the company another edge in innovation. Artificial intelligence will also make it into the company’s warehouses and distribution centers. Full automation will free Amazon to move the warehouses at any time without disrupting local economies or incurring great expenses in hiring and training programs. Through structural change, diverse but targeted services will secure Amazon’s future. Shipping will expand to include vital resources such as water, food, and energy to growing megacities. While startups may compete for local services, Amazon will serve to provide the resources that the cities depend on.
51
2035: SCENARIO
CONCLUSION Amazon has once again succeeded in overcoming and thriving amidst challenges. The company’s well-known innovativeness and reliability will win the day when humans are no longer just human, and megacities need the security of Amazon’s shipping services. 2035 will be strange, and so will Amazon.
52
2035: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE BRAND
• Alexa: the augmented person’s PA • Bionic accessories • Fully automated labor • Resource shipping to megacities
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LESSONS LEARNED
LESSONS LEARNED
Scenario Planning is a useful tool for imagining
and prepare themselves to recognize the
possible futures in terms of brands and
future when it appears. The fiction created
products. It does not seek to predict, but to
from Scenario Planning has the potential to
open our minds to what could be. Because the
cultivate innovative ideas and strategies.
future is inherently unknowable, companies
Scenario Planning is not only about preparing
cannot truly prepare for it, but they can
to welcome the future, but also about taking
understand the forces that shape the future
an active role in crafting it.
55
REFERENCES
REFERENCES
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[Augmented shopping]. https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x /13/68/67/13686700375bc47e1b84d0da65961ff3.jpg
[Amazon servers]. http://www.adweek.com/socialtimes/files/2012/11/FacebookForestCityNCDataCenter.jpg
[World in hands]. http://grifitas.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/earth-science-e1414494504938.jpg
[Echo living room]. http://cdn2.expertreviews.co.uk/sites/expertreviews/ files/3/14/amazon_echo_0.png
[Tin can telephone]. http://img.ehowcdn.com/750x500/ds-photo/getty/article/178/175/86490882_XS.jpg
[Amazon boxes conveyer belt]. http://elite-league.com/sites/default/files/ styles/story_pic_850/public/social_posts/jul15_13_461842892.jpg?itok=-L4rKZNd
[Amazon at the door]. http://www.hughesent.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Hero_fade_White_girl._CB330064465_.jpg
[iPhones Amazon store]. https://forrst-live.s3.amazonaws.com/multiposts/images/9640/original.png?1347664683
[Amazon Fire Stick]. http://cdn1.alphr.com/sites/alphr/files/images/dir_429/ it_photo_214576.jpg
[Kindle]. http://img.influencing.com.au/misc/007/921/397/o.jpg
[Lightbulb in hand]. http://r-eveillez-vous.fr/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Science_et_Technologie_4688.jpg
[Out of touch]. http://www.doctordisruption.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/ FreeGreatPicture.com-26333-touch-screen-with-a-finger.jpg [Orange shopping]. http://justtoucheddown.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/ IMG_0811.png [Parents on computers]. http://cdn.thedailybeast.com/content/witw/articles/2013/09/16/in-parenting-when-is-it-ok-to-say-i-don-t-know/jcr:content/ image.crop.800.500.jpg/45978746.cached.jpg
[Digital touch]. http://www.maison-entrepreneur.fr/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Fotolia_35451134_M-Credit-photo-ra2-studio-Fotolia.com_.jpg [Electric connection]. https://lifein750words.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/connected1.jpg?w=587&h=292&crop=1 [Connected world]. http://www.imbnet.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/imbnet-world.jpg
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[Danbo in the city]. http://ndl.mgccw.com/mu3/wallpaper/000/087/244/80fcc754d5274b63837e6ac90f4593b5.jpg
[Juggling]. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YtXeHfz19R4/VQfy2OlDZoI/AAAAAAAAAFA/ O27xVHRmD8M/s1600/mili-01.jpg
[Amazon Books]. http://p3.publico.pt/sites/default/files/4_2013/amazon12.png
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