WindowOn 52 - Shopper StockTake 2022 by Shoppercentric

Because turning shoppers into buyers matters

StockTake 2022

Brought to you by

www.shoppercentric.com

TRENDS

ISSUE

This report is based on online interviews amongst a nationally representative sample of UK shoppers aged 18+. Over 2,000 respondents were interviewed in February 2022, with a further 2,000 interviews conducted via an omnibus in April 2022. Qualitative interviews took place throughout September and October 2022 with our shoppers who are living with a disability. Our quantitative Shoppercentric Stocktake measures do however go back to 2016 and allow further interpretation of pre and post COVID-19 trends. insight|analysis|information|trends|reviews|knowledge|statistics

TRENDS TRENDS Because turning shoppers into buyers matters

StockTake 2022

ISSUE ISSUE No.52 No.52 Brought to you by

www.shoppercentric.com

TRENDS

ISSUE

PUBLISHED BY: Shoppercentric EDITOR: Marie Screene DESIGN: Mike Higgs

e: mikehiggs@mac.com We welcome ideas for future articles and reports. Guidelines on our preferred format and style are available from info@shoppercentric.com

All copyright is vested in Shoppercentric unless expressly stated otherwise. No permission is granted for reproduction, use or adaptation of the material, save as to provide for under Statute, and any such use must be accompanied by the appropriate accreditation.

Because turning shoppers into buyers matters

Welcome...

Trends Research...

Jamie Rayner,

Out of Sight, Out of Mind?

Can we break 4000 year-old shopping habits?

Fakeaways... a fad or here to stay?

Anxious younger shoppers too overwhelmed to fight climate change?

The shopper you need to know better

Food Banks

Disability Snap Shots

Introducing SAM

Voices4All

Managing Director, Shoppercentric

For the avid reader, you will notice that this is being published at a different time of year. We have gone with the overriding sentiment that ‘everything is topsy-turvy anyway, so why not now!’. There is little point mentioning VUCA (again) because this is now the new normal and for those with FONO (Fear of Normal)... I digress. Another year is characterised by an increasing responsibility for business to respond to society’s challenges: whether they be life-changing events driven by the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the cost-of-living or the planetary crisis, they continue to shape our direction and efforts. They shape how we support our clients and bring insight back to their organisations in terms of ‘what’ we learn about and ‘how’ we go about gathering evidence. Over the last year we’ve continued to strengthen Touchstone and Shoppercentric to make an even more positive impact for our clients and on some projects, a positive impact on society. Our review brings to life some of the areas upon which we have chosen to focus, in one of which, we have endeavoured to make a difference. From an internally led brief, we set out to learn more about Disability from a shopper’s perspective. Through stories of those living with a wide range of disabilities, the clients we work with, our collaborators and naturally - some research, we have contributed to knowledge and awareness of some of the many challenges faced by this important economic (yes!) group. In the year ahead, we will keep leading with our values to evolve our clients’ understanding and contribute to the communities that we interact with. We will drive Shoppercentricity into the wider domain of consumer behaviour and the total marketing journey. We do so much more than you might think.

TRENDS A slight rip-off of Toy Story© and slightly after Christmas but nevermind: “To Shopper and beyond in 2023”.

ISSUE For now, back to 4000-year-old shopping lists (pages 6-7).

Be it Covid, climate or cost of living, the world is in crisis...

They say old habits die hard...

Fakeaways, the art of recreating your favourite restaurant or takeaway dishes in the comfort of your own home...

We haven’t heard that much from Greta in a while. No doubt she’s taking a well-earned break from the media eye...

The London Marathon is always inspiring. Sitting on a comfortable sofa watching people from all walks of life tackling the 26.2 miles never fails to impress.... and how data analytics is optimising the food supply chain, locally and internationally.

Real talk from real shoppers living with a disability that we at Shoppercentric have spoken with over the last few months... Our Shopper Adaptation Monitor 2023. Keeping you ahead in the Cost of Living crisis... Driving inclusivity in panel representation and data...

Out of Sight, Out of Mind?

Be it Covid, climate or cost of living, the world is in crisis. The UK Government Autumn statement forecast a third of the global economy will fall into recession this year or next.1

Written by Jamie Rayner jamie@shoppercentric.com Only very recently has China marginally eased its strict zero-Covid policy in response to economic pressures.2 The UK and wider European markets are absorbed with rising energy and grocery costs, partly because of another crisis: the war in Ukraine. More positively, the agreement with poorer countries on climate finance with a loss and damage fund ground out at COP27 has been welcomed and is due to start running in 2023.3 In the UK, through WindowOn, we have been tracking attitudes on financial wellbeing since 2009. In more recent times, following a stable period through 2020, it’s no surprise given the surge in energy prices that now in 2022, the proportion of those who define themselves as Strong Reactors (Struggling financially) has risen sharply (32%) and is almost 1.5 times higher than in the last credit crunch in 2009 (24%). The share of those struggling financially has risen in all age brackets and it’s women and those with children in the household who are most likely to be making changes.

32% of UK households are struggling finacially now: What will it look like in 2023? 13%

49%

31%

15% 19%

48%

18% 19%

15% 21%

31% 25%

24%

16%

52%

27% 23%

32%

10% 2009

2017

2020

2022

2023 PROJECTION WILL IT LOOK LIKE THIS?

% Strong Reactors (struggling financially)

% Soft Reactors (having to make small changes)

% Planners (cutting back, just in case)

% Unaffected

Source: WindowOn 2009, 2017, 2022 & 2022

12%

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Our report shows a strong correlation between anxiety/ distress and financial stability. Again, it is the Strong Reactors that are more than five times as likely to say they are ‘Extremely/ Very anxious’ than those who are ‘Unaffected financially’. Rising rates/ bills are most top of mind for all groups – but much more the Strong Reactors. Rising rates/ bills are most top of mind for all those affected – but much more the Strong Reactors. Rising rates/ bills first overtook Covid concerns back in April 2022. While Brexit is 5th ranking among the Planners (Cutting back just in case) as a reason for anxiety/ distress, there is a growing expectation that ‘Brexit’ will increasingly be called out as a cause for UK economic instability and lack of growth.

Rising rates/ bills & politics the top anxiety issues Strong Reactors more affected by all measures: Unaffected are... unaffected Strong Reactors (struggling financially)

Soft Reactors (having to make small changes)

Planners (cutting back, just in case)

Unaffected

Rising rates/bills (e.g. energy)

The political situation here

74% The political situation here

43% Losing my job/income

38% Getting infected with COVID-19

37% Infecting others with COVID-19

34%

54% The political situation here

34% The political situation here

19%

25% The political situation in other countries

20% Getting/Infecting others with Covid

Getting/Infecting others with Covid

18% The political situation in other countries

19% Infecting others with COVID-19

19%

18% Brexit

16%

14% The political situation in other coutries

13% Rising rates/bills (e.g. energy)

13% Getting/Infecting others with Covid

11% Brexit

11%

Source: WindowOn April, 2022

It feels like a lifetime ago now but spending on food and non-alcoholic drinks rose by 9% (Apr 2020-March 2021) during lockdown and the pandemic.4 Our WindowOn category tracking data also reflects this upward trend, where food staples such as tea, meat or fish, cheese, cream, butter,

milk, coffee, yoghurts/ desserts have all increased alongside pet food and household staples such as haircare products, pain relief, cold and flu remedies (2020 vs. Feb 2022). During that period, food spend increased while spending on culture, hospitality, recreation, and travel all declined.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Strong Reactors concentrated in specific groups

9% 18%

9% 20%

11%

28%

31%

32%

44%

41%

15%

15% 18% 33%

22%

40%

18% 36%

42%

22% 26%

34% 23%

12% 18-24

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

65+

TAKEAWAYS Anyone under 55 has potential to be affected: more so if you’re female and/or have children Feelings of anxiety/distress strongly correlate with financial worries – this impacts on decision making

Strong Reactors: Women: 71% With Children: 48% Extremely / Very Anxious: 62% Buy own label to manage costs: 73% Shop around for best deals: 62% Very good idea of comparative prices: 76%

Since then, retail sales have fallen as shoppers rein in spending against soaring food prices5 and no doubt rising food prices would now be the top cause of anxiety/ distress across all groups. But what about the next few months and beyond into 2023? Our WindowOn trend report reveals shoppers are adopting a range of shopping strategies. Being more price sensitive is the top ranked shopping habit, with at least 75% of the Strong Reactors, Soft Reactors and Planners all being more price aware than they used to be. This is expressed for all groups through higher ratings of promotional preferences rather than more of the same to save money. Strong Reactors are ahead of all other groups on going out of their way for best deals/ splitting shopping across different websites & stores.

% Strong Reactors (struggling financially)

% Soft Reactors (having to make small changes)

% Planners (cutting back, just in case)

% Unaffected

Source: WindowOn April, 2022

Almost 3 in 5 of all but the Unaffected groups agree they buy own label products mainly to keep costs down. Retailers, like Asda, have reacted by introducing a Just Essentials line in May 2022. Data suggests the range is performing well despite the bright yellow packaging being reminiscent of “Value” ranges brought out in the late 1970s: there have been reports that shoppers wouldn’t want to be seen with a bright yellow pack in their baskets, but recent sales appear to give the lie to that assertion. While buying own label has often been explained as a coping strategy in the face of price rises, prices of the cheapest items have also risen at least in line with inflation: even the lowest priced grocery items rose by 17% in the year to September 2022.6 Shoppers are likely to continue to trade into own label and shift to discount retailers: this is clearly a

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

challenge for brands, to retain their purpose and ensure shoppers switch back. Alongside the shopper strategies of store switching (on-line or off-line) and economising by trading down through own label; two other core approaches that shoppers use are ‘avoidance’ and ‘prudence’. Avoidance poses the largest risk to many categories, whereby shoppers miss out whole categories or products because they can’t afford them, or worst of all that don’t have access to them because of where they live. The cost-of-living crisis for some will force the choice of certain food types because they are cheaper and more accessible – making choices for instance between take aways versus fresh fruit and veg. Also, arguably not a shopper strategy – but driven by consumer behaviour - is the behaviour of prudence – avoiding waste and making purchases go further. Eventually, this will impact on products chosen. Other ways to help shoppers spread costs (Iceland being the first to introduce) include the introduction of interest free loans to help with food shopping back in August 2022.7 Grocers are doing their bit to help, with free meals for over-60s, Healthy Start vouchers and targeted discounts. As we approach Christmas, retailers have announced sales and bonus points on their loyalty schemes8. There has also been a drop off in non-essential food shopping, big ticket items such as furniture, and jewelry9.

To get the best view of 2023, we need to look back to look forward. Data from the 2008/9 recession and pandemic strongly supports the argument that investment in communication should not stop. The case is made across hundreds of businesses that there is benefit to continue some form of communication. But the question of course is how and where to invest: this is where staying tight to shopper/consumer understanding is essential. The challenge is all the more important when we see rapid changes in the face of the double act of retraction in growth while inflation is at an incredibly high level.

The case for investing is clear. The brands that invest in ESOV saw 5 times as many very large business effects (such as profit, pricing, share, penetration etc.) and 4.5 times the annual market share growth (source: Peter Field IPA DataMine on 2008 recession, IPA’s Seminar on Advertising in a Downturn). The assessment of long-term profit growth (measured in these case studies mostly after the end of the recession) clearly shows why taking the short-term hit to profitability through investing in advertising during the depths of recession, ultimately delivers better long-term profit. So, how can we understand what is going on in the market, at the consumer / shopper level, to ensure we invest wisely? Which will in turn enable you to properly review your marketing strategies. The voice and understanding of the consumer will enable insight led decisions around all the necessary readjustments (targets/positioning/new objectives/distribution etc). But the big one here (perhaps more so than ever) is on price as it needs to consider what is valuable to the consumer and then work out how to frame it. As always, there will be winners and losers, but one thing remains true for any form of brand presence: if you are out of sight on the shelf, when the final decision is being made, you are probably out of mind. But don’t be fooled: physical visibility in-store won’t solve all your woes. It’ll help, but you have to add meaning to the visual assets you are flaunting. Understand your consumer, activate your shopper, check your tone of voice. Many brands will lower their efforts, meaning your visibility could get even better: make sure you know how to maximise what you have. References: 1 17 Nov 2022 www.gov.uk 2 11 Nov 2022 www.theguardian.com 3 20 Nov 2022 www.theguardian.com 4 www.ons.gov.uk 5 www.theguardian.com 6 www.ons.gov.uk 7 www.bbc.co.uk 8 www.which.co.uk 9 www.theguardian.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Written by Tim Baker tim@shoppercentric.com

Can we break 4000 year-old shopping habits? They say old habits die hard but to break ones that have been knocking around for 4000 years sounds just that little bit harder. Imagine a world where you could reduce the length of time spent on your food shopping by 75%. Well, it now exists! Here in 2022 AD, tech is already there to help the shopper save on the big three shopping barriers: time, money, and angst. Tech such as AI, APIs, algorithms – whichever way you wish to define it - are making great inroads. We’ve heard about smart fridges that tell you the contents of your fridge and their expiry dates to help you plan your shopping: now your smartphone, apps and widgets have been developed to help you decide what to cook via recipes that link directly into your online grocery shopping. This is simply a development of age-old behaviour: shopping lists and recipes have been found since at least 2000 BCE in Egypt-Mesopotamia.1 It is no surprise that our self-funded WindowOn research, where we are keeping tabs on changing consumer habits, shows list-making to plan meals continues to be a stable shopping habit for at least 62% of shoppers of all ages. A more recent activity of course is the search for inspiration around recipes as a common pastime: more than 70%2 of adults use social media instead of cookbooks for recipes.

Retailers (and publishers on any platform) have been getting in on the act too, with digital expertise from companies such as Northfork, that will convert a digital recipe into a product in-store basket. Jez Collins from Northfork explains: Collaborating directly with retailers, the journey starts with the content. Recipes feature heavily on retailers’ landing pages and Northfork also has the technical foundation for enriching recipe apps (e.g. Tasty) while shopping. The cart is then handed over to the retailer for check-out. Northfork claims this delivers value and volume sales growth, with fresh produce categories thriving. We understand that consumers only cook from a handful of their favourite recipes, so it’s of no surprise that shopping by recipe results in a wider repertoire of products bought. Jez Collins from Northfork tells us that for one of their lead retailer clients (Coop, Sweden), 1 in 6 baskets contain a recipe. There are some very clear shopper benefits: When it is done right, it [the use of the recipe product collator] can reduce the length of time spent shopping by some 75%.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Shoppers, consumers and the environment also benefit from a whole bundle of upsides: healthier eating, money saving or fitting with my personal cost and quality balances, less waste (precise measurement of fresh foods), scratch cooking and even energy saving, all of which can assist in the cost-of-living challenges faced by many consumers. On top of this, Jez Collins explains that the retailer has the opportunity to deliver a positive experience by reducing the burden of the repetitive, mundane, weekly or daily meal planning:

There are also the more “traditional” recipe box delivery service gurus (Hello Fresh/ Gorillas) who are keeping the market competitive with claims about less waste, fewer trips to the grocery stores and therefore less expensive shopping. Timeliness is also key here with companies like Kavell, based in Sweden, offering groceries to your door in 10-minutes via their app.

By meeting the consumer at the point of inspiration.

Forecasting is never more difficult but the combined impact of all these offers means there is great potential for recipe experience shopping behaviour to prosper, with tech and AI playing a critical part in this, particularly among younger shoppers. Our latest WindowOn trend report shows smartphone usage for list compiling at 68% among 18-24 versus 15% for 65+ and while usage of other smart devices (Smart speaker, TV, iWatch, Smartwatch) is currently relatively low, it is expected to grow.

and importantly, the recipe experience is protected: any external shocks such as shortage of specific foods or supply issues results in recipe removal “If it’s not in stock, the recipe is not displayed”. Poor experiences must be avoided allowing trust to develop in order to drive repeat behaviour. While this space is characterised by ambitious start-ups such as Northfork collaborating directly with retailers and recipe apps, other companies such as Whisk operate slightly differently models. Here, the consumer signs up and saves recipes/ smartphone online lists. Whisk then uses AI to match ingredients to what is currently in stock and still fresh in the local area and organises for local delivery/ click and collect. James Leech, head of product at Sainsbury’s, says: Customers are increasingly choosing to do their grocery shopping and find recipes online. They need to find their favourite foods quickly and conveniently and this new partnership with Whisk will help inspire shoppers with a huge range of recipe ideas and make it even simpler for them to add to their bag and buy. 3

So, what’s in prospect for the next five years?

While not all applications are success stories (e.g. Amazon Dash buttons), the role of tech will continue to challenge or disrupt 4000 year old shopping habits of grocery lists and recipe inspiration. As always, the challenge for retailers is to educate, remind and of course, provide consumers with the benefits of convenience and saving time and money. Some shoppers will embrace the tech, others will continue to shop how they have always done, wedded to their routines. Here at Shoppercentric, we will continue to monitor how this evolves alongside other dynamics that nudge shopping and consumer behaviour. References: 1 www.listonic.com 2 www.independent.co.uk 3 www.internetretailing.net

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Written by Jon Darby jon@shoppercentric.com

a fad or here to stay? Fakeaways, the art of recreating your favourite restaurant or takeaway dishes in the comfort of your own home, have soared in popularity over the last few years. If you’ve been toiling away in your kitchen trying to replicate KFC’s Colonel Sanders’ 11 secret herbs and spices or perhaps trying to perfect the base on your Pizza Express copy, you’re not alone. Research by Maxima found that KFC alone accounted for 12,000 searches a month on Google in the UK by those looking for inspiration and recipes (6 x greater than the next fakeaway meal choice – Nando’s). For some, creating fakeaways was down to necessity with their restaurants and takeaways of choice closed during the COVID-19 lockdowns. For others, it is about saving money and financial belt tightening or about being able to put their own twist on one of their favourites, perhaps creating a healthier version as they go. However, against the backdrop of a post COVID-19 society, uncomfortable economic constraints combined with a war and associated supply issues, it can be difficult to fully understand whether this is a shortterm fad or a longer lasting trend. To get a view on this, we turned to our self-funded WindowOn research where over the years we have been keeping tabs on changing consumer habits. This shows that by May 2020, compared with pre-pandemic measures, there was a net rise in demand for creating fakeaways, cooking from scratch and home-baking. By February 2022, home baking had fallen away somewhat while fakeaways have steadily grown to December

2020 after which they steeply increased. Cooking from scratch, meanwhile, remained consistent throughout, but with the current cost of living escalating, we expect this trend to remain stable, even if channel choice changes (e.g., Hello Fresh). Interestingly too, we have also observed a net decline in buying ready meals/ meat kits and ordering takeaways at home through to February 2022. So, who is driving this fakeaway trend? From the latest wave of our research, we can see our 25–34 year-olds are leading the way. We see a similar lead amongst those with children in the household (particularly those with children aged 0-5 who may be finding it difficult to get out to their usual haunts with young ones in tow). Unsurprisingly, those that have found themselves spending more time working from home since the pandemic are also more likely to have been crafting their own fakeaways.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

This all makes perfect sense in the context of where we were back then: strict lockdown measures restricting access to movement, fewer holiday opportunities, fewer chances to go out and socialise led consumers to seek ways of creating excitement at home. Concerns about weight gain during lockdown combined with cost constraints are likely to be driving the downward trend in actual takeaways. Our latest research shows a sharp decline in takeaways amongst our shoppers aged 45 and over.

Alongside the traditional retailers, online start-ups originally born to help dieters find tasty tried and tested slimming recipes have diversified their portfolios to include healthy fakeaways, batch cooking, quick meals and the weekly indulgence we need more than ever. Pinch of Nom is a great example here.

Retailers have spotted the fakeaway opportunity, developing 30-minute fake-away recipes. Tesco’s Real Food collection proves a great example, providing a full list of everything needed, detailed instructions and a link through to the Tesco website where you can purchase the ingredients for almost 200 different dishes.

Retailers can continue to support the fakeaway trend via their on-line and in-store offer, with merchandising and communication. There is additional opportunity to customise money off vouchers and layer experience into promotions. Going forward, supermarkets can drive loyalty by tailoring offers to support shoppers’ emotional needs. The cost-of-living crisis means financial pressures will be top of mind for the majority going into this autumn and so it’s likely the fakeaway trend will continue to grow and grow. Here at Shoppercentric, we will be monitoring how this evolves alongside other interesting shopper and consumer behaviour.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Anxious younger shoppers too overwhelmed to fight climate change? We haven’t heard that much from Greta in a while. No doubt she’s taking a well-earned break from the media eye. Judging by our recent research however, she might want to come out of early retirement to goad her own generation into taking some action.

Written by Sarah Banks sarahb@shoppercentric.com

of gen Z and Millennials feel % very or extremely anxious

Gen Z and Millennials get a lot of air-time when it comes to concern for the environment. Theirs are the generations that know they’ll have to fight the battles of a climate legacy the rest of us are leaving them. It seems rather strange then, that some of their personal actions don’t – on the face of it - reflect this concern.

In terms of shopping behaviour, our survey shows sustainable actions by the younger generations lag far behind those of their parents and grandparents – whether it’s buying recyclable packaging, avoiding single use plastic, buying local, wonky fruit & veg, buying less meat or other similar actions. In fact, the only items 18-34 yr olds are more likely to buy, than other age groups are organic, vegan and vegetarian foods.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

The surprising news doesn’t stop there; the younger the shopper, the fewer items they’re recycling: 55+ year olds recycle twice as many types of packaging as 18-24 year olds. This gap has widened significantly over the course of the last three years: these younger age groups are also less likely to be recycling at all.

Younger generations are recycling less, and older generations more! Age Band

Ave. no. of packaging types recycled

% change 2022 vs. 2019

18-24

-29%

25-34

-7%

35-54

-8%

55+

+1%

And therein perhaps lies a clue. Our data also confirms the frequent reports of younger generations’ mental health suffering most as a result of the pandemic. These age groups are experiencing higher levels of anxiety: no fewer than 39% of 18-34s report feeling very or extremely anxious, compared with just 9% of over 65s. Coupled with feelings of isolation/ loneliness, they are also now more worried about losing their jobs against a background of inflation. We know anxiety constrains, that feelings of being overwhelmed fuel an inability to do more than the bare minimum. It’s likely this is impacting on their ability to look further and act ‘green’. No doubt the pandemic has exacerbated the tendency of younger generations to shop less sustainably and recycle less. It didn’t cause it, however. This is something we and others had already reported on pre-pandemic. What else is going on? Our data show that Gen Z believe the government and manufacturers should take the most responsibility for protecting the environment. They place personal responsibility further down

the list than do older cohorts, perhaps because recent events have suggested individual actions are relatively meaningless in the face of collective requirements (which have been, of late, driven by government). What younger groups are more prepared to do is buy eco-friendly clothing and shoes… shopping as a form of activism. They are also less insistent on matching the prices of sustainable goods to standard ones, which makes them attractive customers. But the choices and options must be made easy. When asked what would make them buy more eco-friendly products, 44% of 18-25 year olds need them to be ‘easier to find/ see in store’ (compared with 37% on average). ‘Knowing which stores sell these kinds of products’ is also more important for Gen Z (26% vs 24% average). This age group will also be more motivated to buy eco-friendly if they are given ‘more awareness of the positive impact of eco-friendly products’ to (36% compared with 24% average).

In summary Younger groups aren’t as willing to expend the same levels of effort hunting for eco-friendly products or proactively learning how/ where to recycle something as older age groups. They need to be told why they should buy, where they should buy and what they should buy. Signposting eco-friendly products in-store needs to be fool-proof: once motivated, this group of shoppers is more willing to pay for eco-products than older cohorts but needs the experience to be made easy. Manufacturers, retailers and local government should not assume that all consumers and shoppers are sufficiently aware of the importance and impact of their individual choices and actions whilst shopping and recycling. Building levels of awareness and motivation both require further investment if the youngest generations’ green actions are to match their levels of concern.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

The shopper you need to know better The London Marathon is always inspiring. Sitting on a comfortable sofa watching people from all walks of life tackling the 26.2 miles never fails to impress or bring a tear to the eye. Emotions run high, not just because of the sheer physical and mental effort required, but because so many runners come with a hefty back story; a cause that has got them off their sofa and onto the road.

Written by Anna Dawson anna@shoppercentric.com Whilst none of us at Shoppercentric leapt into our running shoes, last year’s London Marathon spurred us to challenge ourselves to refresh our thinking: to make ourselves more inclusive of disability and long-term health conditions in our research. We’ve spent time on this and it’s early days; a key take-out is once you start to look, listen and ask, it’s obvious that this really mustn’t go unexplored (with everyone’s permission of course). Disabilities, whether visible, invisible, mental, physical, genetic, age or illness related, impact on

lives in diverse ways. By asking and not shying away from difficult conversations, we’re building a more meaningful and useful model of shopper behaviour, one grounded in real life, not just the idealised lives we like to present to each other. The Social Model of Disability (a way of viewing the world developed by disabled people and used by Scope) says people are disabled by societal barriers, not by their impairment or difference. These barriers can be physical or attitudinal; either way, we need to know what they are, and do our bit as shopper experts to find how products and services can be designed better. Not only is this the right thing to do, it also makes commercial sense. Improving the offer for a disabled shopper will improve the offer for ANY shopper, in turn growing the potential market size.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Let’s start with some basic facts:

1in5

That’s more than

working aged people live with a disability (2 in 5 pensioners)

14 million adults in the UK

Life is more expensive if you are disabled: Disabled people face additional monthly costs of nearly £600.

And this is before any of the current rises in energy costs.

75% £274bn Being disabled doesn’t diminish spending power. The Purple Pound is worth

to UK businesses.*

Poor, inappropriate or inadequate service =

lost business

of disabled people/their families have walked away from a UK business because of poor accessibility of customer service. The same response happens online.

Equal to15%

of a business’s total potential customer base.

Source: Family Resources Survey: 2020 – 2021) / (Source: Scope) / (Source: Purple Tuesday, a global social movement working to improve the customer experience for disabled people).

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

The shopper you need to know better With all this in mind, as part of our Shoppercentric Window On series we have started to detail how living with a disability or long-term health condition impacts on grocery shopping. Life feels different if you’re disabled or struggling with your mental or physical health. Although everyone worries about the same things, in the same order, those with mental health issues, unsurprisingly, tend to be the most anxious:

Out of every 5 people, how many feel very/extremely anxious (in general) Those with mental health issues Those with any disability Those without a disability

This heavier mental load can make daily tasks - including grocery shopping – so much more stressful. More than twice as many of our disabled respondents get very anxious about grocery shopping compared with the non-disabled (21% vs 9%). Our job as researchers is to understand why, and how the experience can be improved. Online shopping is a great work-around when stores feel too stressful to visit: a greater proportion of disabled shoppers (1/3) do indeed adopt this approach compared with non-disabled shoppers (1/4). Online shopping confers greater control of parts of the process to the shopper. Assuming web-sites are accessible, people can build shopping lists over time when they feel best able to do so, they can use saved lists to simplify the process and for those that need it, there are some great digital access tools available. This still leaves 2 in 3 shoppers going into store. So why don’t more disabled shoppers go online? Conferred control only stretches so far. We still need to get the groceries from the front door into cupboards and fridges, and this final stage isn’t always easy or predictable. Delivery personnel and slots vary, as may an individual’s ability to manage this task from day to day. Nor can everyone afford the delivery price or reach the minimum basket size needed (remember – disabled shoppers already have higher living costs). In-store shopping is not going away just yet and so needs to work for everyone, everywhere, in every format. Quick, frequent visits to smaller local stores can be more manageable than large weekly shops in superstores. It’s an opportunity for the convenience sector to shine, and ensure they have disability confident staff and a store space accessible to all.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

It’s also clear how to really win with disabled shoppers: improved provision of additional customer facilities; good lighting, suitable toilet facilities, the right trolleys and staff that can help. And don’t forget the joys of Scan and Go; this practically removes one of the most physically and mentally challenging stages of the shopping journey – the checkout. 74

No Disability/Health Condition

% (n=1436) Disability/Health Condition % Any (n=1107)

67 63

But these are the big-ticket items.

Everyday improvements in shopping are an even easier place to start and just as effective. Ahead of any of these great initiatives disabled shoppers, just like any other shopper, simply want their trip to routinely be successful. When it goes wrong it is more frustrating due to the level of physical, mental and time investment required to complete these trips. Make sure the right products are in stock, make sure the layout is simple, show the prices – clearly. If these aren’t in place, then the stress of shopping becomes greater, especially if it means having to visit other stores or repeat the trip.

50 46

41 37

Quiet Hours

QR Codes: Early adopter behaviour

Scan & Go (ease of shop)

Background Noise

Lighting

Toilet Facilities

Customer Support is good

Aisles are wide enough

Quiet hours are a nod in the right direction for those seeking a calmer shopping experience. Dimmed lighting, fewer announcements and no background music all help. Great if you can get to store for these time-slots. LEGOLAND Windsor has introduced a fantastic Sensory Room for neurodiverse guests needing a quiet moment away from the excitement of the rest of the park. Again, a great step forward. An equally important aspect of all these changes is not just what they offer to people using them, but the fact that they are visible. Like the Sunflower lanyard, visible initiatives such as these continue the conversation that different people need different experiences, and that is normal.

Trolleys

Across the industry, exciting trials are taking place to improve accessibility. In September 2021, Asda integrated selected stores into the GoodMaps App to help shoppers navigate the shop and similarly, manufacturers such as Kellogg’s and Pantene have been adopting Navi Lens on-pack codes (these help guide shoppers to desired products in-store and then communicate key product information). Outside the grocery industry, Spec Savers’ latest advertisement raises awareness of the NHS funded home eye-test available to those who can’t leave their home unaccompanied.

So what’s next? We are learning. We now purposively include and segment respondents with disabilities and long-term health conditions in our research, with client’s permission. We keep asking, we keep listening and we go deeper with a more qualitative approach to build our understanding.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Disability Snap Shots Real talk from real shoppers living with a disability that we at Shoppercentric have spoken with over the last few months... Different is a word that’s haunted me my whole childhood. I never wanted to hear it; it was not who I was – I was not different! On the outside I may be different, but I have the same thoughts, feelings and desires as anybody else. The world just treats me as if there’s something wrong with me. It took me a long time not to trust the world’s opinion. Why is shelving that high? My mum can’t reach. People in wheelchairs can’t reach. I can’t reach and I am taller, having had surgery. I often walk out of shops. It’s the whole process. It’s tiring. I don’t want to bother staff and I am tired of asking. Sometimes I ask other shoppers rather than staff.

I have to ask for help to close curtains in changing rooms. This makes me uncomfortable + so I don’t always try them on and end up having to return clothes. Online shopping simply isn’t the solution, in the way it is currently offered. The minimum basket spend is simply too high for a household of two. Wouldn’t it be great if stores could be more flexible for those that need it? Then BOTH my parents could choose the food. You never know what someone’s day has been like... but you can be pretty sure that someone who’s disabled has had a harder day from the ‘get go’.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

I drive a top-of-the-range car, use the latest make-up brands, shop like anybody else, spending thousands of euros each year from businesses and brands who fail to evenly represent and include people with disabilities. I am just one of 1 billion people with disabilities globally. Together, we have a combined spending power of $1.7 trillion per annum. Bring in family and friends and its almost $8 trillion. Grocery shopping makes me anxious if the store is unfamiliar. I feel like stores are designed to stimulate the dopamine in customers, and people with ADHD are more likely to fall victim to this even with online shopping. The focus should be on what you can do rather than what you can’t – talk directly to me not over me or to the person I’m with. There is an assumption that you can just order online if disabled but it’s not always the solution. I get confused when they change the store layout from the previous week and I need help finding things.

The loss of sight has been harder to deal with because it is constantly changing. I have to keep adapting and this is hard, tiring and time consuming. Trying to shop, with limited eyesight and find foods that are gluten free, for my children, means I am EXTREMELY BRAND LOYAL. If I find something that works, I stick with it.” I don’t expect special VIP gold star service compared to other shoppers. Like everyone, as long as the basics are met and I don’t have to queue forever to get out, I’m happy. Shopping is an exhausting process anyway + more so if you’re in a wheelchair. They changed the store layout about 6 months ago, it’s even more of a nightmare to find everything again. Hearing is still difficult. It’s better if I can lip read. If you don’t know to approach me from the side my implant is on, it can look like I’m ignoring you. I’m having to process a lot more. If store staff ask me a question, I don’t always respond instantly.

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Written by Marie Screene marie@shoppercentric.com

Food Banks

and how data analytics is optimising the food supply chain, locally and internationally Against the cost-of-living crisis, rising energy and food costs, demand for emergency food at UK food banks is forecast to substantially increase this winter and into 2023. A record 320,000 people have needed help from Trussell Trust food banks over the last six months; a total of 2.1 million food parcels were given out during April 2021/2022, far more than ever before.1 ‘Food insecurity’ leaves many people reliant on emergency parcels from food banks. It exists because people do not have enough money and/ or have limited ability to acquire nutritionally adequate and safe foods. Unsteady incomes, unexpected expense or a rise in expenses, low income, benefit delays all drive people to need emergency provisions.

Health problems and challenging life experiences 75% of people at food banks have a health issue or live with someone who does. 54% of people at food banks live in households affected by a mental health problem. Most people referred to food banks have had at least one challenging life experience in the year before needing to use a food bank, like eviction, divorce, or losing a job.

A total of 9.7 million adults experienced ‘food insecurity’ in September 2022, according to the Food Foundation, with a steep rise in the proportion ‘not eating for a whole day’ (up to 6%, twice as many since the start of lockdown).

9.7 million adults (18.4% of households) food insecurity in the past month Percentage of households experiencing food insecurity 20 15.6

15 14 9.3

9.4

6.2

7.6

First 2 weeks of lockdown

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

3.1

2.5 July 2020

6.8

6.2

5.7

5.2 2.9

6.9 7.9

4.1 2.2

Ja 2

The Trussell Trust2/FareShare3 are the main UK organisation/charity fighting hunger and food waste: The Trussell Trust supports a network of food banks, while FareShare redistributes fresh surplus food, together with long life products donated at food banks/ collection points. Retailers, and manufacturers have been supporting food banks and food surplus redistribution for some time. In early November, Tesco launched their popup ‘reverse supermarket’ in London: The ‘Give Back Express’ helps raise awareness around the work Trussell Trust and FareShare do across the UK and shows shoppers how they can support with vital donations” 4 Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and Morrisons, as an example, all now have options for customers to donate to the Trussell Trust at self-service or online checkouts, by rounding up their bills, or donating loyalty vouchers. Several retailers are doing different things in their cafes. For example, Asda are offering £1 kid’s meals, and unlimited teas and coffees for over 60’s. Morrison’s have been giving away free jacket potato and beans meals in association with Heinz to anyone using the code word Henry (#AskHenry).

have experienced Moderate or severe food insecurity Had smaller meals/skipped meals Been hungry but not eaten

18.4

Not eaten for a whole day 17.6

13.8 12.8

8.8

11.1

7.3

8.8

7.8 6.5

5.5

4.9

4.2 2.4

anuary 2021

6.0

2.6

4.6 3.6

January 2022

Some retailers (Aldi, Asda, Booker, Co-op, Lidl, M&S, Morrisons, PRET, Sainsburys, Tesco, Waitrose, Ocado, Gousto, Bidfood) all authorise their own-label products to be sent to FareShare for onward charity redistribution. McCains and Greencore have been supporting charities and community groups within the FareShare network by donating/ redistributing food surplus for over a decade. Deliveroo5 has launched its mobile food collection service, called Collecteroo, in partnership with The Trussell Trust which will collect unopened and in-date food from 12-17 December in London, Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow and Cardiff and deliver them to food banks in the Trussell Trust’s nationwide network. There are many more examples abound of the enormous and concerted effort made in the UK, but food banks are not, and were never intended to be, a permanent solution to food poverty. While the Trussell Trust’s vision is for a “UK without the need for food banks”, the Zero Hunger Lab at Tilburg University, Netherlands, have a goal to use data science to contribute to realising global food security, i.e., to help realise one of the United Nations (UN) 17 Sustainable Development Goals, one of which is number 2: Zero Hunger. This is done by advising aid organizations, companies, and government institutions through mathematics and smart algorithms which they call “bytes for bites”.6 World hunger is an enormous problem: the UN estimates more than 800 million people regularly go hungry. Every 10 seconds a child dies somewhere in the world from starvation or malnutrition.7

September 2022

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Food Banks (continued)

Today, Zero Hunger Lab has more than 20 researchers collaborating on more than 40 research projects with numerous partners, including World Bank, Oxfam, World Food Programme, World Vision, and INSEAD Humanitarian Research Group. Their work has taken them to Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, as well as in the Netherlands, where more than 150,000 people depend on food banks. The research guides volunteer organisations to identify smart investments to help even more people successfully access food in an equitable way. Estimations are that with the proposed investments (in cooling, in transport, in surface and buildings) approximately 25% more people can be helped.

Since 2011, Professor Hein Fleuren and his PhD students from Tilburg University have been helping the World Food Programme (UN) optimise their supply chain and food basket in crisis situations using mathematics and data analytics. This intensive cooperation led to “Optimus”, an innovative solution that is now helping countries like Yemen, Syria, and South Sudan feed worldwide more than 2 million people extra with the same aid budget. Instead of approaching the supply chain step by step (package composition, purchasing, shipping, and distribution), all variables come together in the model. Thus, the purchase price is included in the composition of the food basket, and the location of purchase and the method of distribution (in a camp, via the local market?) also play a role.

Looking ahead, Zero Hunger Lab believes our food systems must fundamentally adapt over the next decade to better help people hit by war or natural disaster. An even longer-term goal is to have the capacity to provide more than 10 billion people three healthy meals a day by 2050, within earth’s limitations. The analytics are positive that this goal is possible, but it also requires consumers and producers to play their part: spoiling less food (at the moment nearly 1/3 of the food worldwide is wasted)8; eating less meat and fish and in general: eating less. Here at Shoppercentric, we will continue to monitor local and international efforts that involve innovative solutions to optimise the food supply chain. References: 1 www.trusselltrust.org 2 www.trusselltrust.org 3 www.fareshare.org.uk 4 www.thegrocer.co.uk 5 www.chargedretail.co.uk 6 www.tilburguniversity.edu 7 www.issuu.com 8 www.ifco.com

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Our

Shopper Adaptation Monitor 2023 Keeping you ahead in the Cost of Living crisis We are now launching our latest, low-cost shopping behaviour tracking service to provide you with, not just insight, but foresight, around the impact of the cost of living on shopper choices.

If your category is ‘at risk’, we can tell you who is going to change their behaviour and in what way? Are they most likely to buy less frequently, trade down or even stop buying completely?

A quantitative sample of 2,000 UK shoppers utilising implicit measures to predict which categories are most likely to be impacted when the nation’s purse strings further tighten as we navigate 2023?

If this is of interest to you, please get in touch by sending an email to

info@shoppercentric.com and we’ll get right back to you.

Category Risk levels 50%

00 = Catagory

High risk, low incidence

High risk, high incidence 09

45% 40%

% at risk

35% 30% 25%

20 10

20%

19 05

15% 12

10% 5%

Low risk, low incidence

02 06

Low risk, high incidence

0% 0%

10%

20%

30%

60% 40% 50% % Buying nowadays

70%

80%

90% 100%

RAG analysis quickly shows relative risk to each category, taking into account the size of the catagory also. Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

Does your research agency ensure Voices4All? Driving inclusivity in panel representation and data. The ethnic minority population of the UK is larger than the populations of Scotland and Wales combined. We routinely ensure Scotland and Wales are consciously represented in our national samples: why not ethnic minorities and other groups too? It’s a truism of any research that the output is only as good as the data input. Alongside questionnaire design, repres tal components in traditional sampling controls are missing, so much so that we cannot be sure every voice is heard and properly represented. We are passionate about representation and try to live an inclusive philosophy. Which is why we are incredibly proud to be a founding partner in the Voices4All movement. Voices4All is committed to including representation of diversity and inclusion standards within research services.

Established in July 2020, Voices4all has the aim of creating a minimum standard for NatRep UK research samples which not only statistically reflect age, gender, region and socio-demographic breakdowns but also ethnicity, sexual orientation, and disability. The three combined account for around 30% of the UK population who are currently overlooked within the market research industry. As further UK census data on these three groups becomes available in January 2023, our aim is to make sure that our NatRep samples are even more accurate and truly representative of the UK market. If you agree this is fundamentally important for your business to make the right decisions, we’d be thrilled if you join us. For more information about the Voices4All movement, please visit:

www.voices4all.co.uk

voices4all founding partners

Shopper Trends No.52 | StockTake 2022

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