EXISTING EXISTING
TASSO 2030 Planning for Tasso’s future economic development, neighborhoods and quality of life.
Report Created By Seung Dong Lee Shuchita Jain Tarun Potluri Taslima Khandaker 1|Page
Existing Conditions Report 1
Table of Contents Section 1 Executive Summary……
Context About Data
Section 2……. Demographic Profile……
Population Projection Age-Cohort Projection
Section 3……. Housing Analysis……
Household Affordability Land Demand for Housing
Section 4……. Economic Analysis ……
Employment Projections Employment Opportunities
Section 5……. Community Facilities & Services……
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Household Affordability Land Demand for Housing
Section 1: Executive Summary The need to interpret and understand a community is important for the growth of its future. To begin the planning process, it is crucial to be knowledgeable about the needs, issues, and existing conditions. The purpose of this synthesis report is to assist the City of Tasso, and its residents in developing a vision for their neighborhoods, and to create possible collaborative solutions to reach that vision. We envision Tasso as a growing, dynamic, and sustainable city with potential to contribute to overall regional development. This report will guide investment and decision-making over the next 10 years. It is important to understand the overall vision and concepts that have guided the development of the plan’s recommended policies and strategies. Tasso’s quality of life and economic development are integrally related. Retaining existing jobs and attracting new jobs are equally important factors in Tasso’s economic stability. Each relies not only on defining costs and benefits of doing business, but also on maintaining and selling the City and region as an attractive place to live and work. The existing conditions and overview of the city will inform the planner’s vision and objectives which will aid in the formulation of recommendations for future investment in the city. The report begins with the important contextual features of Tasso, along with its population information. The data for the report was collected from city, state, and national databases which are deemed to be most reliable sources available to us. The purpose of this deliverable is to provide factual foundation, and generate discussion on how to best use our precious resources for economic prosperity while caring for social and environmental sustainability. The following report serves to bring forth any concerns with past, current, and expected future trends of development.
1.1: Context Tasso is located along the U.S. Highway 190 in the Brazos County of Texas. It lies at the heart 3|Page
of what is known as the ‘Texas Triangle’ formed by the three rapidly growing cities, with Dallas on the north, San Antonio on its southwest, and Houston on south-east vertex. The closest among these is Houston metropolitan area which is 90 miles away and connected by the Highway 6. City of Austin, a booming hub for high-tech industry lies to its west. City of Tasso is home to manly facilities of the Texas A&M University System which is a Land, Sea, and Space-Grant institution with immense research capabilities in multiple fields. The city is just 3 miles away from the Eastwood Airport which plays an important role in the overall regional logistic, with connections to the Dallas/Fort Worth and George Bush International Airports. The city is about 100 miles away from the Gulf of Mexico coastline, with Galveston as its closest beach town.
Figure 1.1a: Tasso City Land, 135466 acre
1.2: About Data
Dallas
Data Sources: American FactFinder Census and ACS 5-Year Data by Census Tracts, Brazos County, Texas. https://factfinder.census.gov
Houston
Brazos Tax Appraisal District, http://www.brazoscad.org/
San Antonio
Wetlands Mapper LAUS data, https://www.bls.gov/lau/ https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
Section 2: Demographic Profile
Tasso features popular attractions like Texas World Speedway, a professional car-racing track and performance driving school with a capacity to seat 23,000 people. The city is also home to may recreational facilities like Santa’s Wonderland; Museum of the American GI; that attracts crowds from the entire county. Lick Creek Park and Deer Park are its biggest parks and the city is also home to several takes and RV parks that offer excellent recreational opportunities. Tasso’s most important neighbor is the Texas A&M University which is situated on the north-west area of the city. This si the dominant employer and a growth magnet for the region. The total land area occupied by the city of Tasso is 135,466 acres
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The demographic profile presented in this section provides an overview of recent trends in population, income, age, and racial composition in Tasso. Figure 3, analyzes city’s population, its change and characteristics by male and female. Below are key points based upon the analysis of Figure 3.
The median family income within Tasso increased by 27.2% between the years 2000 and 2013, rising from $57,449 to $73,082 Tasso’s population for both the genders increased by 68% between 2000 and 2013. The median age for both the sexes has increased by 5% for males going up to 29.7 years, and by 8% for females going up to 29.7 years, and by 8% for females going up to 31.1 year These age characteristics can be a factor to changing needs within their infrastructure such as: housing types; education systems; modes of transportation; and public health facilities. They are aspects that can be used to cater to a diverse demographic profile.
Table 2a. Key Population Characteristics of Tasso City, 2000 and 2013 2000
Population Median Age Median Family Income
2013*
2000-2013 % Change
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
21,141
21,780
35,567
36,646
68.2
68.3
28.3
28.8
29.7
31.1
4.9
8.0
$62,358
$80,089
28.4%
* U.S. Census Bureau 2000, American Factfinder ** American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2011-2015 dataset
Figure 2a. Population Distribution by Age and Gender, Tasso City and Brazos County
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Table2b. Racial Composition in Tasso City, 2000 and 2010 Racial Group
2000
2010
White
84.40%
79.90%
Black or African American
5.20%
6.80%
American Indian and Alaska Native
0.30%
0.40%
Asian
4.80%
7.30%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander
0.00%
0.10%
Other race
3.60%
3.40%
Table ??. Median Family Income in Brazos, Waco, and Tasso, 2000 and 2013 2000
2013*
Brazos County
$46,530
$61,324
Waco City
$33,919
$44,230
Tasso City
$62,358
$80,089
** American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2011-2015 dataset
Table ?. Median Income by Gender in Brazos, Waco, and Tasso, 2000 and 2013 2000
2013*
male
female
male
female
Brazos County
$16,531
$10,401
$22,398
$15,821
Waco City
$18,280
$11,503
$21,877
$11,010
Tasso City
$28,743
$14,987
$35,795
$22,247
** American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2011-2015 dataset
Racial diversity in the city improved from 2000 to 2010 with increased participation of Asians and African Americans in the community. When compared to Waco city, Tasso had about $36,000 greater Median Family Income in the year 2013. When compared to Brazos County, Tasso had about $19000 greater Median Family Income in the year 2013. The Median Family Income for Tasso increased by about $17,700 from 2000 to 2013 that amounted to 28.4% of income increase. These age characteristics point to changing infrastructural needs such as housing types; high-schools; modes of transport; and public health facilities catering to a more diverse demographic profile of the city compared to the last ten years.
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2.1: Population Projections Population growth scenarios for Tasso were modelled using four alternative projection methods, as illustrated in the figure below. Direct Quadratic (2nd order) projection method captured relatively most realistic growth scenario for the city, as compared to other projection methods that portrayed extremely high growth rates (more commonly associated with large metropolitan cities). As per the Direct Quadratic growth model, Tasso will continue to gain population and is projected to reach about 100,000 (which is almost half of Brazos County’s current population) by the year of 2030. However, overall growth rate has been declining and will be slower in future. Figure 2.1a.
Population Projection by Alternative Methods, Tasso TX
2,00,000
Brazos Population in 2014
Past
Future
1,80,000 1,60,000 1,40,000 1,20,000 1,00,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 2000
2005 direct linear
2010
rate linear variable change
2015 direct quadratic
2020 2025 rate constant change
2030
Original
2.2: Age Cohort Projections Growth projections by age-groups indicate future scenarios worthy of keen attention. On a general overview, the college going and entry-workforce group, 18-29 years has experienced a marked decline in total population share, going down to about 35% from 70%. On the other hand, the Retired age group, 65 years old and above, is likely to become larger, gaining more than 3% from 2000 to 2013. Participation rate of the new-borns, young children, and junior college goers is also likely to increase. Entry-level worker age groups are likely to continue growing, however at slower growth rates. These cohort will compose lesser proportion of the overall population in future as other groups grow by higher rates.
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Table ??: Estimated Change in Population Composition by Age Groups, 2000 – 2013*
2000 Age Group
2013*
2000-2013
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
% Change
Under 5
2580
6.0%
4311
6.0%
0.0%
5 to 9
2588
6.0%
4178
5.8%
-0.2%
10 to 14
2581
6.0%
4444
6.2%
0.1%
15 to 17
1531
3.6%
2462
3.4%
-0.2%
18 to 21
19212
44.8%
10172
14.1%
-30.7%
22 to 29
10890
25.4%
14902
20.6%
-4.7%
30 to 34
5460
12.7%
8446
11.7%
-1.0%
35 to 44
5460
12.7%
8446
11.7%
-1.0%
45 to 54
4123
9.6%
6921
9.6%
0.0%
55 to 64
2166
5.0%
6185
8.6%
3.5%
65 to 74
1294
3.0%
3586
5.0%
2.0%
75 to 84
690
1.6%
1724
2.4%
0.8%
85 and Above
259
0.6%
730
1.0%
0.4%
Figure ?? visualizes the trend in participation rates of the different age groups over the period from year 2000 to future year of 2030. It is interesting to note how the peaks are shifting away from the younger groups and towards the older groups over the years. The overall share of one of the most dominant age-groups in Tasso, that is 18 to 21 years old, has declined from 32% in 2000 to 11.38% in 2015, and is projected to further dip down to mere 3.3% by 2030. The participation of the age group from 22 to 44 years old is also likely to decrease slightly in future. On the other hand, the age group from 45 years old to 85 years old and above is steadily gaining greater share of the city’s total population. By 2020, the age group of 55-64 years old will comprise 11.36% of the city’s population, about 17% by 2030. The trends in age cohort may have significant impacts on city’s infrastructure and life style patterns. These demographic changes may lead to notable changes in housing and transportation choices, as well as the business profile of Tasso.
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Participation Rate Trend by Age Groups, Tasso 35%
% of Total Population
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
>85
75-84
65-74
55-64
45-54
35-44
30-34
22-29
18-21
15-17
10-14
5-9
<5
0%
Year Series1
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2.3 Urban Rural Projections The overall rate of population gain, in both the urban and rural tracts, is estimated to be slower in the period of 2020 to 2030 than the rate of 2010 to 2020. Also, the urban population growth rate in 2010 to 2020 was more than the rural population growth rate. However, this trend is going to shift in 2020 to 2030 period. Rural tracts are likely to grow faster than the urban tracts. These population cohort trends may have significant implications in terms of location of future planning interventions. Large population gains in rural areas will result in greater demand for public infrastructures.
Table ??: Estimated Population Distribution by Urban and Rural Tracts, 2010, 2020, 2030
Cohort
2010
2020
2030
2010-2020 % Gain
2020-2030 % Gain
Urban Population
60024
78665
91884
31.1%
16.8%
Rural Population
6411
8183
10292
27.6%
25.8%
Total Population
66435
86847 102176
30.7%
17.7%
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Section 3: Housing Analysis Communities incorporate human systems and shelter is a basic human necessity. Housing analysis takes on great significance because it is intended to lead directly to proposals for policies and programs. A community’s total population usually depends upon the changes of household population. The vacancy housing rate will reduce slightly with the increase of household population when there is more supply of housing however, the pricing of housing increases when there is more demand for housing due to increase in population households and less supply of housing. We can relate this to the demand and supply policy which are inter-related with each other and inflate according to time and market trends. Important factors of Housing analysis Household population and group quarter population, total households and housing units, household size, households by annual income, types of housing units, housing tenure, housing unit occupancy and vacancy, age of housing units, physical condition of housing units, cost and value, and housing for special populations,. Housing analysis of Tasso city assess the future housing needs of Tasso City. The horizon for this study is the year 2030. A population projection reviews recent trends in population and its effect on housing. But housing analysis reviews characteristics of both household and group quarter’s populations Population projections show that Tasso city will have great growth during the next two and half decades. Tasso city will grow by 35,262 individuals from 2010 to 2030. During the upcoming decade (2010 to 2020), the city’s population will increase by 20,412 people according to our projections recorded in (Table 1.1).
2010 Household Pop. 66149
Vacant Housing Units 6.60%
2010 Group Quarter Pop 286 99.57% Vacant/Occupied 0.070663812
Average Household Size
Occupied Housing Units
2.51 43.00%
93.40%
Owner Occupied 48.30%
Renter Occupied 51.70%
Table___: Household population, average, renter/owner occupied Source: ACS 2011-15
Table 1.2: Population, Household, Total Housing Forecast Years 2010 to 2030(presented Only 2010,2013,2017&2030) Year Observed Projected
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2010 2013 2017 2030 2030
Total Pop. Tasso City 66435 71892 80700 102176 102176
Household Pop. 66149 71583 80353 101736 101736
Group Quarter Pop. 286 309 347 440 440
Total Household 26468
Total Homes 28338
Vacant Housing units 1870
Owner Occupied 12784
31295 32152 40708
33507 34423 43584
2211 2272 2877
15116 15529 19662
Renter Occupied 13684 16180 16622 21046
Households can be classified into family households and non-family households. The forecast of the housing analysis from 2010 to 2030 represents a higher number of renter occupied housing, when compared to owner occupied housing. This is due to the large number of student population studying in Texas A&M University. The increasing amount of student housing is categorized as non-family households. According to the data, findings includes the growth of group quarter housing in comparison to average households, which is less. Average household size is 2.51 and occupied housing units are 93.4%. The demand for housing is currently high and vacancy is low with an estimation of 6.6%. The proportion of owner occupied housing is 48.3% and renter occupied house is 51.7%. The city is expected to have an active rental housing business and a short period of residence change. The great increase in population had a great impact in the increase of household size from 2.33 in 2010 to 3.71 in 2030, which is notated in (Table 1.2).
Table 1.3: Housing units based on Income level from 2013 to 2030(presented Only 2013,2017&2030)
2013 2017 2030
Less than $10,000 3724 4180 5292
$10,000 to $14,999 1661 1865 2361
$35,000 to $49,999 3351 3954 4764
$50,000 to $74,999 5901 4694 5943
$75,000 to $99,999 2979 3344 4234
year
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2864 3215 4071
$25,000 to $34,999 2606 2926 3704
$100,000 to $149,999 3953 4437 5167
$150,000 or more 3323 3730 4722
$15,000 to $24,999
1)Table 1.3 represents the total no of housing units of 2013,2017&2030 based on income level 2)Past, present & future data represents continuous housing growth in both rich & poor income levels. Table 1.4: Segregation of Income Levels Annual Monthly Average Median Income 2013 Low Income Very Low Income Extremely Low Income
<80% of 64,209 <50% of 64,209 <30% of 64,209
64209
5351
51367 32105 19,263
4281 2675 1,605
The above table 1.4 represents the Average Median Income of Tasso county for base year 2013. median income of specific tracts were tabulated using 2011-2015 Acs data to calculate the median annual income of Tasso. The table also represents the renter and home owner affordability of specific tracts. The City of Tasso used the value of 64,290 as the respected median value to help calculate extreme low income, very low income and low income values.
Affordability analysis Affordability analysis mainly helps us to calculate the affordable amount for owner and renter occupied housing.
Table 1.5: Percentage of Owner & Renter occupied Housing Household Income Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 or more
12500 20000 30000 42500 62500 87500
Rental Affordability 129 192 379 629 942 $1,442 2067
Home Owner Affordability 19800 29500 58300 96800 $1,44,800 $2,21,800 $3,17,900
125000
$3,004
$4,62,200
3629
$5,58,300
Midpoint
The above table represents the percentage of owner and renter occupied housing based on Income levels Table 1.6: Affordable amount for Owner & Renter occupied Housing
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Household Income
Midpoint
Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999
12500
Rental Affordability 129 192
Home Owner Affordability 19800 29500
$15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 or more
20000 30000 42500 62500 87500
379 629 942 $1,442 2067
58300 96800 $1,44,800 $2,21,800 $3,17,900
125000
$3,004
$4,62,200
3629
$5,58,300
Graph 1.1: Owner & Renter Income ratio 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Less than $10,000 $15,000 $25,000 $35,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $150,000 $10,000 to to to to to to to or more $14,999 $24,999 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 $99,999 $149,999 Owner ratio in Income group
Renter ratio in Income group
Graph 1.2: Distribution of Owner & renter Housing among additional housing projected for 2030
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1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Less than $10,000 $15,000 $25,000 $35,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $150,000 $10,000 to to to to to to to or more $14,999 $24,999 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 $99,999 $149,999 Additional units
Owner
Renter
The above graph 1.2 gives us a clear picture that income levels between $10000-$49999 had more percentage of rental homes and $50000-150000 had more percentage of owner homes.
Demand for Affordable Housing during 2030 Based on our analysis housing demand for affordable housing based on income levels had calculated Demand for Extremely low income â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 1568 Demand for very low income - 2268 Demand for low income - 3475
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Figure ___: Current single & multifamily housing in Tasso
Important factors of Housing analysis Household population and group quarter population, total households and housing units, household size, households by annual income, types of housing units, housing tenure, housing unit occupancy and vacancy, age of housing units, physical condition of housing units, cost and value, and housing for special populations,. Housing analysis of Tasso city assess the future housing needs of Tasso City. The horizon for this study is the year 2030. A population projection reviews recent trends in population and its effect on housing. But housing analysis reviews characteristics of both household and group quarterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s populations. Households can be classified into family households and non-family households. The forecast of the housing analysis from 2010 to 2030 represents a higher number of renter occupied housing, when compared to owner occupied housing. This is due to the large number of student population studying in Texas A&M University. The increasing amount of student housing is categorized as non-family households. According to the data, findings includes the growth of group quarter housing in comparison to average households, which is less. Average household size is 2.51 and occupied housing units are 93.4%. The demand for housing is currently high and vacancy is low with an estimation of 6.6%. The proportion of owner occupied housing is 48.3% and renter occupied house is 51.7%. The city is expected to have an active rental housing business and a short period of residence change. The great increase in population had a great impact in the increase of household size from 2.33 in 2010 to 3.71 in 2030, which is notated in (Table __) 15 | P a g e
3.1: Housing Affordability The common measure for Housing Affordability is whether a low or moderate income family can afford to rent or buy a decent quality dwelling without spending more than 30percent of its income on shelter. 30 percent of median income includes utilities, while calculating housing affordability we should be careful that entire 30 percent is not allotted for rent or mortgage. The cost of utilities will be varied from state to state and city to city. The average of utilities of a city is used while calculating Housing Affordability
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Less than $10,000 $15,000 $25,000 $35,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $150,000 $10,000 to to to to to to to or more $14,999 $24,999 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 $99,999 $149,999 Owner ratio in Income group
Renter ratio in Income group Figure ___: Owner to renter ratio Source: ACS 2011-15
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Map 3.1
Section 4: Economic Analysis 4.1 Employment Projections Employment trends for Tasso, with the base year as 2008, were projected using Gretl software (Figure 4.1a) that provided estimated forecasts for civil labor force and employed labor force in the future year of 2030. As can be visualized below, the labor force employment is projected to rise in the coming years.
Figure 4.1a. Gretl Forecasts
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Figure 4.1b.
Labor Force & Employment, Tasso 1,00,000
Counts
80,000 60,000 40,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
20,000
Labor Force
LF projected
Employed Projected
Employed
Empl Confidence Interval
Figure 4.1c
Labor Force Participation Rate, Tasso 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%
Original
Projected
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
40%
Confidence interval
The city is projected to add about 30,000 people actively looking for jobs from the counts in year 2013, and about 25,000 more people from the current year counts. Labor force participation rate is likely to increase by 20% going up to 90% by 2030 from the participation rate in 2013. There are likely to be 4,000 additional unemployed work force by 2030 from the current figures, and about 5,000 more from that in 2013. Unemployment rate in the city is likely to increase by 3% from the current rate, and increase about 4% from the year 2013.
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Figure 4.1d.
Unemployment Rate, Tasso
Percentage Rate
20 15 10 5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0
Original
Projected Rate
In the time period from present year to 2025, as can be visualized from the Figure 4.1d, the city is likely to add approximately 25,000 employed jobs, while the unemployed workforce is going down by about 50,000 during the same time period. This means, at the current growth rate Tasso is projected to have a deficit of about 25,000 jobs. In order to retain the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s working-age population, there is a need to double up the job opportunities from the current counts. These trends and the population trends indicate that the city will need to create more employment opportunities in the coming decade suitable for a changing demographic composition. Further research is recommended looking into the reasons for increasing unemployment rate. We anticipate this is a nation-wide trend often owing to increased population share of retired persons in communities.
4.2 Employment Opportunities Analysis Tassoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic base is dominated by the Education Services sector with Texas A&M University being the largest employer in and around the city. The second and the third largest job sectors in the city are Accommodation and Food Services, and Retail Trade respectively, followed by Manufacturing and Health Care. Tasso has stronger economy in Accommodation and Food Services, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, Construction, and Mining industries, than its peer city of Waco and the overall Brazos County. However, the industry with largest gap is Healthcare and Social Assistance. Industry sector that are rising and are likely to gain significance in future economy are Construction, Health Care and Social Assistance, and Accommodation and Food Services. Table 4.2a lists the job districution in the city by NAIC industry sectors, for the years 2000, 2010, and 2014. Tasso added 18,210 jobs in total from year 2000 to 2014. The largest share-change was observed in Education with a decline of 7.8%. Job share in Retail and Finance/Insurance also decreased by o.5% and 0.6% respectively. The largest share increase was observed for Accommodation and Food, adding 3.3% more jobs from 2000 to 2014.
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Table4.2a. Job Distribution in Tasso by NAIC Industry Sectors, 2014, 2010, 2000. 2014 Count Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities
887
1,838
2014 Share 1.0%
2010 Count 795
2.2%
2010 Share 1.0%
2000 Count 589
1.7% 1283
2000 Share
2000 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2014 Count Change
Share Change 2000 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2024 (%)
298
0.2%
1,098
1.1%
0.9%
1.1% 740
696
0.8%
689
0.9%
334
0.5%
362
0.3%
Construction
4,403
5.2%
4516
5.8%
3085
4.6%
1,318
0.6%
Manufacturing
6,804
8.0%
5,364
6.9%
6,016
9.1%
788
-1.0%
Wholesale Trade
1,907
2.3%
1302
1.7%
1022
1.5%
885
0.7%
Retail Trade
7,324
8.7%
6,657
8.6%
6,100
9.2%
1,224
-0.5%
Transportation and Warehousing
626
0.7%
239
0.2%
Information
995
1.2%
735
0.9%
868
1.3%
127
-0.1%
Finance and Insurance
1,119
1.3%
909
1.2%
1296
2.0%
-177
-0.6%
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
1,300
1.5%
452
0.3%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
3,422
1,024
0.4%
119
0.1%
1,355
1.2%
1,115
-7.8%
2,294
1.7%
176
0.0%
4,323
3.3%
543
0.2%
647
-0.1%
Management of Companies and Enterprises Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
4.0%
2,531
3.7%
0.2%
5,517
6.5%
2.2%
30,655
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
1,799
Public Administration
3,329
1.0%
39.6%
1,027
84,656
4.9%
1.3%
698
9.1%
1,665
3363 77,419
42.3%
3223
7041
3.9%
28,132
6.7%
11.7%
2.1%
1.8% 1176
5162 874
0.0% 30
1713 34.5%
3.6% 2398
0.1%
3.0%
29,247
1.3% 848
111
9,889
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1.3%
2886 149
0.6% 387
1043
Accommodation and Food Services
All Jobs
0.6% 503
1.1%
8.4% 5566
2.2%
4.3%
1,256
2682 66,446
1.9%
4.0%
18,210
Figure 4.2a.
Percentage share Change
Job Share Change by NAIC Industry Sector, 2000 -2014 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%
Figure 4.2b.
Comparative Job Share in the Region, in 2014 Public Administration Other Services (excluding Public Administration) Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Health Care and Social Assistance Educational Services Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation Management of Companies and Enterprises Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Finance and Insurance Information Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Construction Utilities Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Percentage of Total Jobs Brazos
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Waco
Tasso
30%
35%
40%
Figure 4.2c.
Change in Share of Jobs by Worker Age, 2002 - 2014 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
Age 29 or younger
Age 30 to 54
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0%
Age 55 or older
Figure 4.2d.
Change in Share of Jobs by Earnings, 2002 - 2014 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
More than $3,333 per month
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0%
$1,250 per month or less
$1,251 to $3,333 per month
When compared to Waco, one of the peer cities in the region, Tasso has a notably leading share in the following sectors: Education; Management; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; Construction; Minng, Quarrying, Oil and Gas; and Agricultural industries. When compared to Brazos county region, Tasso has a notably leading share in the following sectors: Manufacturing; Utilities; and Agricultural industries. Tasso has significantly less share of Healthcare in overall job market when compared to Brazos. 23 | P a g e
Recommendations for Future Economic Development Based on the economic growth trends as described above, the following strategies could be considered for future improvements:
Jobs should be created in Health Care & Social Assistance sector as the city’s current share (2014) in this area is very low in comparison to the regional share. Jobs with earnings less than $1,250/mo have decreased since 2008 while jobs with earnings more than $3,333/mo have increased. Also, as indicated in the figure above, there has been an increase in jobs for age 30 and above, while not many jobs have been added for Age 29 and younger. It is recommended that more number of low-skill jobs should be created suitable for younger age group, that are also suitable for students enrolled in local area colleges. Also, high paying jobs suitable for more elder working population need to be added. Population projections for Tasso indicate marked increase number of people in age 55 to 74 who would seek high-skilled managerial level positions. Real Estate and Entertainment sectors should be planned to provide competitive job opportunities as these may have greater role to play for future demographics. On a comparative analysis between Tasso, Waco, and Brazos County, for Basic Industries, Waco leads in the Manufacturing sector but has very show share in the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting sector. Tasso has better share in both Manufacturing and Agriculture than that in overall Brazos County. It is recommended that Tasso should focus on strengthening economy and look to rise as an exporting city in Agriculture/Forestry industry.
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Section 5: Community Facilities and Services The opportunities and quality of life currently available to the city of Tasso is due to the relationship between the existing fixed assets that support operations of their community function or activity; also known as a community facility. Without public facilities such as water, schools, parks, and hospitals; private development becomes difficult. The next section will discuss the following aspects of community facilities: ● Parks or green infrastructure ● Public safety institutes ● Religious Sites ● Schools ● Libraries By analyzing current facilities one can determine space requirements and then implement a design. The particular needs and development of a facility is determined by the residents who currently live in Tasso.
5.1: Current Conditions Education Institution Greens Prairie Elementary School Spring Creek Elementary School Pebble Creek Elementary School Creek View Elementary School Rock Prairie Elementary School Southwood Valley Elementary School Cypress Grove Intermediate school College Station Middle School College Station High School A&M Consolidated High School
Land Acres 16.62 11.32 8.49 12.43 6.55 9.49 12.35 23.94 64 39.49
Facility (sq.ft) 106,526 112,604 101,225 102,353 110,983 108,876 106,691 186,225 260,846 334,901
The City of Tasso currently has five schools that is the main source of education for students from preschool through twelfth grade. This section highlights these institutions, and its current value to the city and its inhabitants. The schools are tailoring to a certain age population within the city. The area can consist of middle aged residents since the amount of elementary schools present is higher then highschools or colleges. One of the main facilities Tasso does not lack are fire departments, and schools. However there are no jail or detention facilities within the city. This aspect might make it harder for the city to control the amount of criminal activity that can be existing. Tasso does contain many fire, and police facilities. This can be a pattern of which community facility the city gauges as more important. 25 | P a g e
Facility
Existing Space (Beds)
Needed or Planned Space (Beds)
Fire/EMS Facilities Police Facilities Jail and Detention Facilities General Government Facilities Community Centers Library Facilities Recreation Centers Convention Centers Public Assembly Halls Other Major Facilities Neighborhood Parks Community Parks Regional Parks Public Golf Courses Special Use Conservancy/Greenbelt Private Golf Courses Other Private LandRelated Fire Storage, Drill, Practice Yards Public Works Equipment, Storage Yards Repair Shops and Associated Yards Publicly Owned Drainage Ponds Sand, Gravel, Soil Storage Yards Landfills Resource Recovery Facilities Airports Other Public Land in Inventory Religious Facilities Summary Total Land Area, Acres
589,807.00 24,849.00
793,921.92 31,756.88
82.51 2.73
37.78 1.28
-44.73 -1.45
0.25 0.25
47.23 1.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.00
173,701.00 71,092.00 110,376.00 71,092.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
364,471.59 68,338.42 113,897.37 91,117.90 0.00 0.00 0.00
20.24 14.72 14.61 6.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 92.10 188.39 554.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 355.24
41.84 7.84 17.26 7.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 136.68 273.35 820.06 523.93 0.00 0.00 527.61
21.60 -6.88 2.65 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.58 84.96 265.26 523.93 0.00 0.00 172.37
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
52.29 9.81 21.57 9.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 164.01 341.69 852.86 544.89 0.00 0.00 548.71
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.00
45.00
69.21
24.21
0.25
86.51
1,377.13
2,464.68
1,087.55
0.09
2,680.98
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Existing Acres 2010
Acres Needed 2030
New Acres Needed
Gross Land Adjustment Factor
Gross Acres Needed
EXISTING EXISTING
TASSO 2030 Planning for Tassoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future economic development, neighborhoods and quality of life.
Report Created By Seung Dong Lee Shuchita Jain Tarun Potluri 27 | P a g e
Taslima Khandaker
Land Demand Report 2
Table of Contents Section 8……. Overview……
Section 9……. Land Demand……
Residential Industrial & Employment Community Facilities and Services
Section 10……. Land Suitability Map……
Residential
Section 8: Overview 28 | P a g e
Baseline population & housing. For baseline population of Tasso we have taken values from second order method of population projections. By using these population projections we calculated total no of households and total no of houses with respect to income levels and affordability of houses based on income level and projected housing demand for our horizon year 2030. We characterized future for housing and tabulated affordable amount for low income, very low income & extremely low income levels. Baseline employment. We calculated baseline employment data for Tasso through employment analysis of Tasso city we collected data from on the map analysis for past, present year and projected future demand for 2030. We analyzed employment land use analysis by using on the map data.
Table 8a. Estimated Land Demand Distribution in City of Tasso, in 2030. Land Demand Summary Residential Land Industrial/Commercial Land Community Facilities Land
Area (acre) Required
Land Share Required
21,908 5,592 2,681 30,181
73% 19% 9% 100%
Total Land Required
8.1: Housing Table 8.1a. Estimated Residential Land Share in Tasso City, 2000, 2010, and 2030.
Residential Type
2000 UnitShare
2010 Area (acre)
Unit-Share
Area (acre)
2030 Unit-Share Required
Area (acre) Required
Detached 1-5 Acres Per Unit 1-2 Units Per Acre 3-5 Units Per Acre 6-8 Units Per Acre Subtotal Detached
18% 9% 47% 16% 90%
7,952 568 1,382 252 10,153
17% 7% 45% 23% 92%
10,174 712 2,019 617 13,522
-3% 25% 6% 14% 43%
8,558 5,747 2,955 1,579 18,839
10% 0% 10%
861 1 862
8% 0% 8%
1,123 2 1,125
34% 40% 57%
2,645 424 3,069
100%
11,015
100%
14,647
100%
21,908
Attached 9-14 Units Per Acre 15+Units Per Acre Subtotal Attached
Total Residential
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8.2: Industry & Employment Table 8.2a. Estimated Industrial Land Share in Tasso City, in 2030. 2030 Industry Type
Projected Employment
Area (acre) Required
Industrial Construction Manufacturing TCU Wholesale Trade Subtotal Industrial
6,946 8,250 1,833 2,002 19,031
240 1,057 553 444 2,294
3,072 3,072 3,072 1,024 10,238
477 470 334 112 1,393
General Office Office Park Suburban Multilevel Subtotal Office
6,441 2,147 2,147 10,735
1,460 288 157 1,905
Total Industrial
40,005
5,592
Retail Trade Neighborhood Community Regional Super Regional Subtotal Retail Trade
Office*
8.3: Community Facilities and Services Tasso is located along the U.S. Highway 190 in the Brazos County of Texas. It lies at the heart of what is known
Table 3a. Estimated Land Share for Community Facilities and Services in Tasso, in 2030. 2030 Facility
Area (acre) Required
Public Safety Facilities Fire/EMS Facilities Police Facilities Jail and Detention Facilities Government and Leisure Facilities General Government Facilities Community Center
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47 2 0 52 10
Library Facilities Recreation Center
22 10
Major Community Facilities Convention Center Public Assembly Halls Other Major Facilities
0 0 0
Parks and Open Space Neighborhood Parks Community Parks Regional Parks Public Golf Courses Special Use Conservancy/Greenbelt
164 342 853 545 0 0
Private Land-Extensive Land Uses Private Golf Courses Other Private Land-Related
549 0
Miscellaneous Support Fire Storage, Drill, Practice Yards Public Works Equipment, Storage Yards Repair Shops and Associated Yards Publicly Owned Drainage Ponds Sand, Gravel, Soil Storage Yards Landfills Resource Recovery Facilities Airports Other Public Land in Inventory
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Religious Religious Facilities
Total Land Area, Acres
87
2,681
* U.S. Census Bureau 2000, American Factfinder, SF1, Table XXX (http:/factfinder2.census.gov)
Section 9: Land Suitability Map Preliminary suitability analysis: About 3% of land area presently under 1-5 acre/unit detached housing can be redeveloped for other detached housing requirements. The map below illustrates the location of all such parcels. A raster analysis for land suitability in ArcMap was done. The screenshot presented below shows the least suitable area mainly due to close proximity to the airport (which can pose health risks in residents). For further analysis, land cover raster data was reclassified to obtain existing landuse types more suitable for residential development â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Developed, Low Intensity; Developed Medium intensity; Barren Land; and other land. Out of these, Developed, Low Intensity land can be redeveloped with infill detached housing whish may help preserve the outer suburban greenfield land.
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Figure 9a. Preliminary Analysis, Existing Single Family Parcels with Parcel size greater than 1 acre.
. Figure 9b. Preliminary Analysis, Least suitable area for Single Family Residential development, Tasso
Least Suitable
Factor Category Soil Employment Center Wetland Waterbody Park Runway Major Road County Sewer Total
SF-Weight (%) 10 20 5 5 30 30 100
While the advance land suitability analysis should be done with weighted rating for the different landfeatures affecting the residential land use, we have used equal weights for the preliminary suitability analysis presented in this report.
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Figure 9b. Preliminary Analysis, Results after applying Raster Calculator in ArcMap, for different features
From the preliminary land suitability analysis, we recommend the following: ď&#x201A;ˇ
The Developed (low and medium intensity) and the barren land parcels should be considered on priority for future growth, before building in the green open spaces
ď&#x201A;ˇ
Total existing area of the Detached Residential land with more than 1acre parcel is 10180 acre. 3% or 305 acre of this land should be redeveloped for low to medium density housing.
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Map 1.
Planning for Tassoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future economic development, neighborhoods and quality of life.
Land Demand Report 2
Report Created By Seung Dong Lee Shuchita Jain Tarun Potluri Taslima Khandaker
The Map above shows the Land Cover reclassified for suitable parcels for infill Detached Housing development in future. 34 | P a g e
Map 2.
The Map above shows the results in ArcMap after applying Raster Calculator with equal weighted rating for all factor categories.
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