SinoShip Spring Issue 2014

Wison’s world firsts Zhenhua Shipping changes tack spring 2014

www.sinoshipnews.com

Breakbulk special Ship repair review Hong Kong to get dedicated maritime bureau

Offshore oracle David Wu on China’s energy race

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Hard time for cement trades

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CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars 3 Editor’s Comment

Turning crisis into opportunities is our way ahead

5 Economy

— Guo Dongsheng, president of Renjian Group

7 Lines

17

9 Yards 11 Offshore 12 Finance 13 Commodities 15 Logistics

■ ■ ■ Profiles 17 Guo Dongsheng

19

As a doctor you are trained to observe patients without touch, or questions. We also have psychological training; this is all useful for doing business — Former neurosurgeon turned offshore investor, David Wu

19 David Wu 20 Paul Oliver 21 Chen Bin

■ ■ ■ Features 23 Breakbulk 26 Ship repair

We do not intend to bid for projects that have no China connection — China LNG Shipping’s Paul Oliver

20

■ ■ ■ Hubs 28 Shanghai 29 Taipei 31 Hong Kong

■ ■ ■ Reviews 32 Books

■ ■ ■ Opinions 33 Bei Hong 35 Andrew Craig-Bennett

In this depressed market situation, we have to open up to the market and join the competition

21

— Chen Bin, general manager of Zhenhua Shipping

What we should do now is to upgrade Hong Kong to be on par with London as an international shipping service hub —Local politician Miriam Lau

31

SINOSHIP spring 2014

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UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@asiashippingmedia.com CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Engen Tham HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI David Green CONTRIBUTORS Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh, Andrew Craig-Bennett PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao All editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com SALES DIRECTOR Helen Ong helen@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details.

MEDIA KITS ARE AVAILABLE TO DOWNLOAD AT:

www.asiashippingmedia.com All commercial material should be sent to grant@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Asia Shipping Media, 20 Cecil Street, #14-01 Equity Plaza, Singapore 049705 DESIGN Lamma Studio Design PRINTERS Allion Printing, Hong Kong SUBSCRIPTIONS

Any shipping-related company headquartered in the People’s Republic of China can receive SinoShip magazine for free. For all other companies a US$100 subscription is charged for 2014’s four issues of SinoShip. Email subs@asiashippingmedia.com for subscription enquiries.

Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2014 www.asiashippingmedia.com Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com.

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The hot topic of the Arctic THE ADOPTION OF the Polar Code is one of the key aims that the IMO secretarygeneral Koji Sekimizu has set for this year.

China might not border the Arctic, but it has made very clear it wants to be involved in the likely opening up of this fragile area.

There’s much hot air being blown about the possibilities of shipping through the northern polar regions.

World shipping is watching carefully the ice coverage at the northern tip of the Earth. As it changes each year, speculation hots up that a new area of maritime activity will open for good. Environmental groups, however, are concerned.

About a tenth of the world’s undiscovered oil and close to a third of its undiscovered gas is thought to lie under Arctic waters.

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) along Russia’s edge can reduce the sailing distance between Asian ports and northern Europe by 40%.

The Arctic could shorten transit times between China, the world’s factory, and its largest customer, Europe, dramatically.

Only 71 ships crossed the NSR last year, compared to the 18,000 handled by the Suez Canal, but about 1,000 vessels travelled into the high Arctic, with much of the growth coming from oil and gas activity, particularly in Russia.

There is no doubt warming temperatures have created opportunities for shipping in the Arctic Ocean. The extent of summer ice has dropped by about 40% since 1979.

In 2013, the number of voyages on the NSR increased by more than 54% compared to 2012.

The Yong Sheng, belonging to Cosco Shipping, was among those vessels making this voyage. It moored at Rotterdam in the middle of September last year, becoming the first Chinese merchant ship to transit the Arctic. The ship left Dalian on August 8 and crossed around 3,000 nautical miles before reaching the Dutch port. The route is around two weeks quicker than the traditional trip through Southeast and South Asia and through the Suez Canal.

Aware of strong interest in the opening up of the Arctic to shipping and the oil and gas industries, regulations are being drafted at the United Nations to try and ensure safe transits in this fragile environment.

The Polar Code will supplement relevant regulations, including SOLAS and MARPOL, for ships operating in polar waters in order to address the risks that are specific to operations in polar waters, taking into account the extreme environmental conditions and the remoteness of operation. The code addresses ship’s construction standards, polar safety equipment, and the requirements for a qualified ice navigator.

However, the Polar Code draft released by the IMO does not address a number of serious problems with increasing marine traffic in the Arctic, a coalition of environmental organisations said recently.

The Arctic debate will continue to remain heated for years to come.

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com SINOSHIP spring 2014

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ECONOMY ■ ■ ■

Healthy deceleration Paul French picks out themes to note from last year that paint a picture of the nation’s more mature economy CHINA’S ECONOMY IS now officially decelerating, i.e. the rate of growth is slowing. But this is good news as it is allowing a more sensible ‘rebalancing’ of the economy away from exports and investment towards consumption over time. Taking this gradually and avoiding sudden bumps should mean no ‘hard landing’ for China’s economy. Analysts have long put ‘rebalancing’ and ‘hard landing’ in quote marks because it wasn’t always clear, and was always debatable, whether either of these things were actually happening. Well, with the economic data for 2013 in we now know — China is rebalancing and a hard landing is unlikely.

54%

The nation’s urbanisation, a figure that is now slowing down China’s GDP shows the deceleration best — 7.7% for 2013, about the same pace as in 2012 but down from 9.3% in 2011 and 10.5% in 2010. Most

analysts expect 2014 to come in at about 7-7.5% for the year — but there’s a long way to go yet.

Deceleration though also marks the end of a lot of processes we’ve all become rather familiar with in China — urbanisation is now 54% and not growing rapidly anymore; China’s demographics mean more old age and less newborns while the property market may, at last, be showing some signs of maturity after a decade of volatility.

Rebalancing means more domestic consumption and less manufacturing for export — and this has indeed been the case. Exports have not been a significant contributor to GDP growth for many years, and were a slightly negative factor in 2013 and 2012. So less containers leaving China in future. But perhaps more arriving, domestic retail sales keep on booming — real retail sales rose 11.5% in 2013, close to the rates of 12.1% in 2012 and 11.6% in 2011. China is consuming more and a proportion of that is imported products.

Some countries are doing better than others in terms of exporting to China — South Korea and America in particular. Seoul’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy reported that exports to China accounted

US trade with China, 2013 –— a record year Month Exports $m Imports $m Balance $m January 2013 9,384.6 37,172.0 -27,787.4 February 2013 9,302.6 32,715.0 -23,412.5 March 2013 9,435.4 27,321.7 -17,886.3 April 2013 8,991.9 33,101.8 -24,109.9 May 2013 8,786.5 36,646.2 -27,859.7 June 2013 9,181.5 35,831.3 -26,649.8 July 2013 8,735.2 38,818.4 -30,083.2 August 2013 9,280.9 39,171.7 -29,890.8 September 2013 9,596.0 40,067.4 -30,471.4 October 2013 13,060.0 41,921.5 -28,861.5 November 2013 13,178.9 40,109.6 -26,930.7 TOTAL 2013 108,933.4 402,876.6 -293,943.1 Source: United States Census Bureau

for 26% of South Korea’s export total in 2013. The US shipped more than $120bn of goods to China, according to data from the US International Trade Commission. That’s a new high in US-China trade — approximately 7% more than the 2012 total. China is now America’s third biggest trade partner after NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico.

What else might affect shipments into and out of China?

Infrastructure is one interesting area where in many things, from high speed trains to

bridges, many components and products have been shipped in.

Year-on-year growth in infrastructure spending did cool late last year, but may not continue into this year. Good news if you’re shipping infrastructure-related goods; bad news if inflation is what concerns you, as all this expenditure will inevitably push inflation higher. Inflation stayed fairly calm in 2013 and rises in the consumer price index were overwhelmingly in the food sector rather than non-food items.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

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LINES ■ ■ ■ Jiangnan Shipyard is currently the only VLGC builder in China and it will deliver its first VLGC by the end of this year.

The Ministry of Transport handed out two new approvals to domestic firms to enter China’s coastal LNG shipping business. The two companies, CNOOC Yangjiang and Zhejiang Huaxiang Shipping, are now allowed to operate LNG ships and enter into the coastal LNG transport sector.

The ministry also stated it will support the development of small-sized LNG ships in the coming few years.

A long expected closer firming of ties between the nation’s top two shipping lines has taken place. Cosco and China Shipping signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement in mid-February whereby the two sides will establish a comprehensive strategic partnership and a resource sharing mechanism in areas of shipping, terminal operation, logistics, shipbuilding, and ship repair. The move would help raise “the influence of Chinese shipping companies in the world shipping industry,” the pair said in a release.

Bohai Ferry is gearing up for massive expansion as it bids to become a fully fledged international cruise operator. It has set up subsidiaries in Hong Kong and Tianjin and has bid $43.68m to buy the Costa Voyager cruiseship. Bohai Ferry, which listed in 2012, is the largest

Shandong Shipping ordered six 83,000 cu m VLGCs at Jiangnan Shipyard as it looks to further expand in the gas shipping market. Shandong already has a fleet of three second hand VLGCs, acquired in 2013.

Trucking consolidation Exclusive repair data SPRING 2013

Asia’s largest liner company joined the CKYH alliance on Asia-Europe trades. Taipeiheadquartered Evergreen links up with Cosco, K Line, Yang Ming and Hanjin. The Middle Eastern line, UASC, is also likely to sign up. At the end of 2013, Evergreen announced plans to charter in a further seven 14,000 teu boxships.

Taiwanese logistics firm TVL Business Group has branched out and established a dedicated shipping subsidiary. Founded in the 1970s, the group is one of the 500 largest companies

in Taiwan. The company has bought two bulk carriers and a small passenger ship and also ordered a 1,100 teu ship in Japan for delivery in 2015. Plans are afoot to grow a fleet of container feederships.

The top management shuffle of Chinese shipping companies continued in December with Li Xiaoming quitting from his post of ceo of Grand China Logistics and from the board of directors of Tianjin Marine. Li, a previous SinoShip cover story, joined HNA Group in 1993, and had served as deputy president of HNA Group, president of Hainan Airlines and president of Jinhai Holdings.

Sinotrans Shipping made plain at the end of last year it would get seriously back into ordering mode and it has not hung around. In the first couple of months of 2014 it has spent more than $250m on ten bulkers comprised of two panamaxes and eight ultramaxes.

The new orders placed this year will take its mixed fleet of bulkers, boxships and a VLCC to beyond 60 vessels when they all deliver in the next couple of years.

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Eye on jack-up rigs

passenger-roro vessel operator in China, but currently manages domestic routes only. It has also just ordered a pair of roros at Shandong Huanghai Shipbuilding.

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Wah Kwong

Sabrina Chao takes the chair

Your chance to reach the right audience Project shippers focus on Africa Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism head speaks Hosco’s Gao Yangming: China’s scrapping champion E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

This magazine is being read by every major shipowner and shipyard across Greater China.

A new media kit outlining 2014’s plans is available at www.asiashippingmedia.com Contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com for advertising details

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

43%

Offshore orders as percentage of total orders at Chinese yards last year, up from 27% four years ago

RARE SUCCESS Chengxi Shipyard has been the nation’s most successful yard over the past 18 months

Carrot and stick Beijing correspondent Li Deng Bai checks out what the authorities are doing to get the nation’s yards back on track CHINA’S BLOATED SHIPBUILDING scene is unlikely to rectify itself for most of this decade, a senior shipyard official warned at the start of the year.

Zhang Guangqin, president of the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (Cansi), told local media that it would take “at least five years” to digest the surplus capacity in China’s shipbuilding sector.

To this end the Industry and Information Technology Ministry (MIIT) in mid-February pledged tougher measures to cut overcapacity in bloated sectors.

China will ban new projects in steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass and shipbuilding industries before 2017, while gradually eliminating existing projects that were found to be below standards, MIIT vice minister Mao Weiming revealed at a press conference.

China will also encourage mergers and acquisitions in

industries to crowd out outdated capacities, Mao said.

In 2013, the aggregate shipbuilding output in China was down 24.7% year-on-year.

However, the good news is that orders placed in the country leapt 242% as owners reacted to improving market sentiment and rising newbuild prices.

Chinese yards finished 2013 with 131m dwt as a combined national orderbook, up 22.5% year-on-year.

Li Dong, deputy head of the equipment manufacturing division at MIIT in Beijing, said earlier this year that efforts to consolidate the industry are paying off with many smaller, less well equipped yards shuttering. The number of yards has halved from a peak of 3,000 at the start of 2010, and is set to half again in the coming three years.

Further government impetus to aid the yards has come from

Beijing with two key rulings in the past four months.

First up, any Chinese owner buying ships overseas now has to pay import tax and VAT. Second of all, a new ship scrapping subsidy policy sees a total of RMB4.6bn government cash set aside.

The policy offers subsidies of RMB1,500 per gt to shipping companies that scrap vessels before their expiration dates and at the same time order new vessels.

The final bright hope for the yards is in their dogged pursuit of offshore contracts. China has quickly caught up with traditional offshore powerhouses Korea and Singapore by offering incredibly generous payment terms.

Data from UK shipbroker Clarkson shows offshore contracts at Chinese shipyards have increased firmly since 2009, at an average annual rate of 20%. In 2013, contracts with a record total value of $17.3bn were placed. In total, 43% of investment at Chinese yards since 2011 has been in the offshore sector, compared to 27% in 2009-10.

Anything you can do …

ANYTHING KOREAN BUILDERS can do, Chinese shipyards will follow. CSSC Shipping, the Hong Kong owning arm of the southern state Chinese yard conglomerate, has changed its order at Jiangnan Changxing Heavy Industry from a series of three 16,000 teu ships to make them 18,000 teu in size, the same as the largest boxships being built across the Yellow Sea in Korea.

The ships, originally ordered in August, will

go on charter to CMA CGM when they start to deliver in mid-2015.

Jiangnan Changxing Heavy Industry belongs to Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, part of the CSSC empire.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

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OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■

INTO PLACE Wison is progressing with a world first, namely the Caribbean FLNG project

Frontrunners China is fast catching up with Korea in winning orders for high-spec infrastructure.

Chief correspondent Katherine Si assesses two of the nation’s top yards THE PRIVATE COMPANY Wison Offshore & Marine is making China, a nation with fast growing offshore engineering demands, more attractive to international players.

Wison Offshore & Marine has been operating since 2006, with a goal to be a leader in China with know-how of Western technologies.

The company delivered a first-of-its-kind project for BPZ Energy of the US in the summer of 2012. It was a buoyant tower drilling and production platform that was installed in Peru.

This was brand new technology that a Chinese company was able to execute and deliver to the international marketplace.

It was also a sign of things to come.

More impressively, work is progressing on another world first at Wison’s wholly-owned and operated fabrication facility in Nantong. The Caribbean FLNG project will be the world’s first floating LNG liquefaction and storage vessel (FLNG) in operation when launched next year. The vessel, ordered

by Exmar and Pacific Rubiales

Energy (PRE), comprises a non-propelled barge that will be installed off the coast of Colombia and equipped to convert 69.5m cu ft per day of natural gas into LNG for temporary storage and export.

The topsides equipment will utilise the PRICO technology, developed by Black & Veatch to liquefy natural gas marking the first time this system has been applied to a floating LNG facility. The Caribbean FLNG

project began fabrication in late 2012 and is on schedule to begin operation in the second quarter of 2015 Wison has strengthened its place as one of China’s leading names in offshore engineering with a recent contract for the delivery of a barge-based floating LNG regasification unit from the same clients, Exmar and PRE. The agreement marks Wison’s second award this year for a barge-based floating LNG regasification facility following the previous announcement in January of an agreement with VGS for a LNG import project located offshore Andhra Pradesh, India.

“Wison is not just a shipyard, and we are offering more than just building other people’s technology. We are willing to go in and get the technology and offer a full solution,” L. Dwayne Breaux, president of Wison Offshore & Marine, tells SinoShip.

Breaux says Wison will now focus increasingly on FLNG, FPSOs and modular construction.

Yantai CIMC Raffles Offshore YANTAI CIMC RAFFLES Offshore, referred to nowadays as CIMC Raffles, is one of China’s top names in rig building. Formerly controlled by Singaporean interests the yard was bought out

by CIMC, the world’s largest container manufacturer a couple of years ago.

At the beginning of this year, the company secured an order from Central Shipping Monaco to build two JU2000E jackup drilling rigs. The order came with four options.

Less than a week later, the company won another order from Norshore to build a multipurpose drillship with three options. Drillships are the cream of the crop from a shipyard’s point of view, priced often above half a billion dollars a pop, and something that have been hogged almost entirely by Korea.

The drillship that CIMC Raffles will build is a small one designed for riserless drilling and well intervention operations globally, including the North Sea.

In addition, it has secured an order from Beacon Holdings Group to build a harsh environment, ice class semi-submersible drilling rig, further cementing the yard’s position as the nation’s top rig builder.

CIMC has set up an offshore engineering research institute and greatly enlarged the size of the technical team at the yard since it took over. Moreover, the yard has recently acquired a 90% stake in Swedish engineering firm Bassoe Technology, a company that focuses on the concept development and basic design of advanced offshore floating and mobile units.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

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■ ■ ■ FINANCE

Where the taps flow Sam Chambers canvasses famous names on where China sits in the ship finance universe in 2014 CHINA IS GOING to become ever more important in international ship finance, a poll carried out by SinoShip has shown.

One top lawyer, Geir Sviggum from Wikborg Rein, says that Chinese banks are filling much of the gap in ship finance vacated by European counterparts.

“Four of the world’s 10 largest banks by market cap are now Chinese, and Norwegian and international ship and rig owners are key targets in their process of internationalisation,” he says.

For Westerners, Chinese financing is, to a large extent, “a black box”, Sviggum says, and knowledge of how to enter into deals with these banks and – even more so – how to collaborate with these financiers in times of difficulty, when the need for renegotiation is pressing, is very limited.

One Shanghai-based senior executive from a top foreign dry bulk owner concurs, saying: “It is incredible just how much Chinese money there is for foreign shipping, but no one knows how to access it.”

China is one of the hottest places for ship finance at the moment, but the nation needs to decide whether it will remain insular or go global with its ship finance ambitions, according to Stathi Marneros, the founder and managing 12

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partner of 2009-founded Spartan Partnership, an HR firm for the ship finance sector.

Chinese banks remain focused on Chinese-centric shipping businesses in what is “still not yet a transparent market”, Marneros says.

through bilateral loans.

“Asian banks — and respective governments — need to decide what their role will be within the global ship finance arena,” argues Marneros.

“If Asian banks continue to foster an insular ship finance

Four of the world’s 10 largest banks by market cap are now Chinese Banks in the People’s Republic are very much influenced by central government monetary and lending policies and banks’ market focus is still on supporting credit and loans for newbuildings in Chinese yards and they remain not really active in the second-hand ship market

mindset, they will not need outside talent,” he says, adding: “If, however, they decide to open up outside of China and hypothetically establish corporate lending hubs across major Western shipping cities in places like London, Athens, Oslo, Hamburg, Rotterdam,

then this would represent a clear intention to attract the skills, talent and relationship and credit experience with relevant geographic regions.”

Asia is always a good place to obtain debt financing for solid established companies, argues Greek national Basil Karatzas, who heads up his eponymous firm, Karatzas Marine Advisors, from New York. Banks in Asia never really had any postLehman trembles, so, they always have had liquidity, he says, before stressing that Asian lenders and investors are very “territorial” and rarely invest or finance companies and owners from the West.

That’s not quite true, says Paul Slater, a famous face in ship finance who runs First International from Florida. “If owners are going to build in China or charter the ships to Chinese companies then access to Chinese debt will be available,” he insists.

Harry Theochari, a partner at Norton Rose Fulbright and one of the best known names in ship finance, points to the continued appetite for the so called Dim Sum market in Hong Kong.

“Looking beyond 2014,” Theochari says, “we may well see the commercial leasing models that have dominated aviation finance emerging in shipping, albeit in a slightly different format, and export credit agencies playing a role in helping to create a secure bond market.”

Finally, in terms of where Chinese are likely to access finance, the ceo of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport, Tim Huxley, says he expects to see many firms tap the IPO market.

COMMODITIES ■ ■ ■

CHOKING Beijing has moved to cut capacity in high polluting heavy industries such as cement, steel and coal

Not set in stone Mark Downing reports on hardened times for the nation’s cement industry REQUIRED FOR SUCH infrastructure as buildings, roads and ports, cement is big business with revenues of $250bn a year. This basic industrial glue is as vital a commodity to fast-growing economies as oil or steel.

China is unquestionably the world’s largest producer, consumer and exporter of cement.

Its cement industry “resembles the country’s economy as a whole: low-tech, high-growth and environmentally hostile, it is building itself into overcapacity and eventual decline,” anticipated the Asia Online Times a decade ago. Indeed, now having reached overcapacity for sometime, Beijing is literally smashing down much of what had laid the foundations of modern China.

Spurred on by the urbanisation and industrialisation zeal of the 1980s, massive government-led infrastructure and settlement projects pushed the burgeoning industry into overdrive. Countless kilns were built such that soon China was

crowned top global producer by capacity with five companies in the global top ten.

By 2010, China consumed 55% of global demand—25 times that of the US. Last year’s demand was an estimated 2.3bn tonnes, rising to 58% of world consumption and three times the global per capita consumption.

The recent drop in demand is likely due to higher interest rates and tighter credit. Additionally, the provincial and local governments, burdened by $3trn of debt, are observing Beijing’s directives to reduce graft and

2.3bn

China’s cement demand in tonnes last year, 58% of world consumption and three times the global per capita consumption

frivolous spending. Many expect demand to peak this decade, after which per capita levels may gradually revert towards the global average.

Severe overcapacity, intense competition and low utilisation rates have depressed prices and profitability. Major plants have reduced capacity while others have halted production for prolonged periods.

Further alleviation may come from Beijing’s new aggressive schemes to reign in production capacity by capping plant expansions and imposing stricter environmental regulations.

One of the central government’s key economic initiatives of 2013 was to cut excess capacity in high polluting heavy industries such as cement, steel and coal. Particulate matter from the cement industry is responsible for around a fifth the country’s total particulate emissions alongside significant nitrogen oxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. Outdated, inefficient and environmentally damaging plants are being destroyed, eased by government compensation plans, preferential policies and tax relief.

A sliver of seaborne trade

allows some surpluses and shortages to be ironed out, but cement is not an ideal commodity for transport. Being bulky and cheap, both production and consumption tend to be local. Only about 4% of cement production is traded internationally, roughly two-thirds of which is shipped by sea typically via handysize and handymax vessels.

However, this trade is also hampered by the low availability of cement carriers. With only about 300 operating, new carriers are being ordered as well as normal bulkers being converted to dedicated cement carriers, according to Howe Robinson Shipbrokers.

Cement trading peaked in 2007, when around 160m tonnes were traded. It is now recovering after a slump postLehman Brothers. Northeast Asia is now the world’s largest exporting region, predominantly to areas like Hong Kong, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Bangladesh. In 2012, China exported nearly 17m tonnes, a miniscule portion of its production capacity, down from 36m tonnes in 2006 partially owing to the phasing out of the small, inefficient plants and the removal of subsidies on exported cement.

As Beijing pulls back from infrastructure investment and China’s economic growth rate slows, cement manufacturers may look outward for survival, possibly even relocating overseas. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is considering establishing an investment fund to encourage industries such as cement to move their excess capacity overseas, following a similar initiative after the Asian financial crisis.

China’s cement producers are being squeezed. While wrestling the competition for profitability, Beijing is capping both supply and demand by tightening capacity and weaning its economy off infrastructure investment.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

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LOGISTICS ■ ■ ■

Killer parcels haunt China’s stretched supply chains Jason Jiang details the limited infrastructure surrounding the nation’s hazardous logistics set up RECENTLY, YTO EXPRESS, one of the largest express companies in China, has been at the centre of a firestorm following a ‘killer parcel’ shipped by the company which caused one death and made nine others ill.

The parcel, which contained samples of a toxin called methyl fluoroacetate, was sent via Shayang Yuntong Logistics Company, a franchisee of YTO Express by a chemical plant in Hubei, which claimed it was “harmless”, to a pharmaceutical company in Shandong. The parcel leaked during transportation and contaminated other parcels.

Several parcel recipients and express workers who handled the parcels were poisoned. The police are still investigating the case.

YTO Express has made an announcement to apologise to the victim’s families and to those who fell ill. It claimed that the company would not shun its responsibilities and was cooperating with the police in the investigation.

The incident has caused a big stir in China’s express industry, one of China’s fastest-growing sectors fuelled by the boom in e-commerce.

The Shandong Post Bureau later announced that the business license of Shayang Yuntong Logistics has been revoked.

China’s postal authorities also issued an emergency notice to toughen up checks on routine deliveries.

In recent years, the business volume of major express companies in China has been growing at rocket speed, however, what has been exposed by this fast development are that companies are struggling to handle the surging volume

of parcels, and not attaching enough importance on management and training.

“The express industry in China is marked by flawed management practices and low thresholds for setting up franchises. Companies should have fewer franchise operations, so supervision over local branches and professional training for workers can be enhanced,” says Xu Yong, chief consultant at China Express and Logistics Consulting.

Xu reckons that such supervision would not prevent similar incidents in the long term. “You can’t simply accuse the express company for not checking the parcels discreetly; it is a serious problem in the supply chain of

hazardous products,” he says.

A lot of hazardous chemicals are important raw materials for many industries. Currently the transport of such hazardous cargo is limited to truckload transport. There is no professional logistics services for small quantities or samples and the cost of trucking is very high, so lots of chemical manufacturers tend to take the risk of using express services to avoid extra expenses, Xu explains, adding

that unless the government and relevant industry associations do not address the situation soon, a similar incident will happen again.

An official from the Guangzhou Dangerous Cargo Transportation Association says the minimum volume for transporting dangerous cargo is normally one ton, and professional hazardous logistics companies are required to have different licenses for different kinds of hazardous products, which makes it even harder to transport a small quantity of such products.

Jiangsu Jinling Transportation Group, which runs a chemical logistics subsidiary and a fleet of more than 100 dangerous goods vehicles, has been involved in less-than-truck-load (LTL) transport for chemicals since 2007. Li Yun, a manager of the company, says LTL transport for chemicals is basically blank in China. The company has thus far offered the service to some neighbouring cities in Jiangsu province, but now the company plans to gradually establish a chemical LTL transport network in the Yangtze River Delta region.

“The relevant government authorities should offer more guidance on a solution for chemical LTL transport. For instance, they can choose some companies for trial operations for the purpose of market research, and set up relevant standards,” Li suggests.

Companies should have fewer franchise operations to enhance supervision over local branches and up professional training for workers SINOSHIP spring 2014

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Renjian rising Jason Jiang heads to Fujian to meet with the young boss of China’s largest private domestic coastal containerline

R

enjian Group from Quanzhou in Fujian province is an integrated logistics service provider with businesses in ground logistics, shipping, warehousing, cold chain, and trading. It operates the largest container fleet in terms of capacity in the private domestic coastal container shipping sector and is now dipping its bows overseas with the first of potentially a number of international routes. It currently runs more than 70 container vessels totalling 850,000 dwt.

Born in a fishing village in Fujian, the 36-year-old Guo Dongsheng, the president of Renjian Group as well as the president of Quanzhou Container Association, started Ansheng Shipping with his brother in 2002, using one old vessel left by their father, a shipping veteran in Fujian. The next year, the brothers established Antong Logistics and in 2005 they registered Renjian Group, which was named after their father, in Hong Kong and integrated Ansheng Shipping and Antong Logistics into the group.

“Ansheng Shipping and Antong Logistics are the cornerstones of the group,” says Guo.

Turning crisis into opportunities is our way ahead in this environment With the integration of its shipping and logistics units, which operate more than 4,500 vehicles and 350,000 sq m of warehousing space, Renjian is now able to offer customers door-to-door services.

“The intermodal transport is very competitive. We will expand our cooperations

with trucking, warehousing and railway in the future, and greatly extend our coverage in China,” Guo says. In the meantime, the company is expanding its reach in project consultation and capital investment with the goal of becoming the best domestic logistics provider.

Despite his relatively young age for a shipping boss, Guo is a shrewd decision maker who believes cost structure is key to a company’s operations. “To change the cost structure, primarily the transport mode needs to be changed,” Guo says.

He and his brother made a vital decision in 2004 when they sold all of their bulk carriers and bought container vessels instead, which has led to the success of the company today.

“The impact of the shipping crisis is still not over, if we just simply wait for the market to get better, the network we have built might be eroded slowly but turning crisis into opportunities is our way ahead in this environment. We have been expanding our domestic network and opening new route services. It’s very difficult to be a leader in prosperous times,” Guo says, adding that the return on investment might be doubled in recession times.

Under a new round of fleet expansion, Renjian has made an order for ten 2,400 teu vessels at Taizhou Sanfu Shipbuilding in the fourth quarter of 2013. Total investment on the vessels is RMB2bn. “The order is based on our discreet analysis of statistics on the domestic shipping market, and these high-tech vessels will lower the fuel consumption by 30% and will better serve the demands from ports and our operations,” Guo maintains.

In December, Renjian also commenced operation of its first international shipping route from Haikou to Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam. Renjian plans to invest RMB3bn

in the next five years in Haikou on Hainan Island to expand its presence in the city including spending RMB860m to build a regional operations headquarters. Antong Logistics completed a volume of 450,000 teu at Haikou port last year, which accounts for about 44% of the port’s annual container throughput.

“Haikou is a gateway port to both the Beibu Gulf and ASEAN, we will increase our total throughput at Haikou port by 30% each year, and a lot of our new vessels will be registered at the port,” Guo says.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

RENJIAN GROUP CHINA’S LARGEST PRIVATE domestic coastal liner is headed by two brothers from Fujian. The company has 70 ships with another ten on order and has just started operating international routes.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Dr Offshore Editor Sam Chambers catches up with David Wu, one of China’s canniest players in the offshore market

T

here are few more people in China more hooked up to the offshore arena than David Wu. Wu’s path to the top table of Chinese offshore has not been an obvious one. He started out as a doctor having trained in Chongqing, eventually becoming a neurosurgeon. He then worked at the Norwegian National Hospital in Oslo for close to five years carrying out research on head trauma.

The time in Norway has proved invaluable ever since. He recounts to SinoShip how he returned to China in 1995 understanding Norway’s strengths in offshore, seafood, oil and gas and shipping.

A former ceo of a ferry company contacted him about bringing a catamaran to China. Remarkably, Wu managed to secure a licence to operate domestic ferries from Ningbo. “It was a big surprise as ferry contracts usually went to domestic firms not foreign ones back then,” Wu recalls. His time in shipping and offshore had just started.

At the end of 1998 Wu was headhunted

by IM Skaugen. He moved from Ningbo to Shanghai and worked with the Scandinavian firm for the next 7.5 years during which time he presided over plenty of firsts such as the first LPG shipments along the Yangtze, the establishment of a training centre in Wuhan, ethylene carrier orders at HudongZhonghua, and working to get ExIm Bank to hand out buyers credit to owners rather than local yards. Wu took ExIm employees to Oslo to show them how Norwegian banks operated, paving the way for a significant change of mindset from the state lender.

By the end of 2007, as country manager for IM Skaugen Wu was looking after some 1,500 employees. He was tired.

A Norwegian offshore contractor Grenland Group (now called Agility) contacted him to head up its Asian portfolio.

Grenland was getting involved in lots of semi-submersible contracts in China.

In 2013 Wu split from Agility, giving him the freedom to pursue his own businesses.

Landmark Holdings is Wu’s investment company, it has three main strands.

First up, the company is behind a series of orders for jack-ups at Yantai Raffles, two firm and three options, with China

Merchants among the co-investors.

Wu’s strength is in his interface between domestic and international firms. To this end, another service he offers is as a financial adviser for sale and leasebacks. He deals with state run lending companies on behalf of owners.

“All Chinese financial houses see the offshore sector as really good for leasing,” he comments, adding: “More and more money will be available there.”

The other intriguing strand in his investment company is in a brand new LNG containment system, which he has invested in along with Norwegians.

Testing was carried out at Xiamen Shipbuilding on the LNT A-Box system in January. The technology consists of an IMO independent tank type A placed in an insulated hold space.

LNG tanks have been either the spherical Moss type or a membrane system for decades.

“Our idea,” says Wu, “was to build LNG vessels easier and more cost efficiently and making it possible for every yard to build them.”

The concept is similar to LPG tanks, the difference being the temperature is about 100 degrees cooler.

The stainless steel tanks are easy to inspect both inside and outside. Moreover the system can be used on FLNGs and FSRUs, their flat shape attracting lots of attention.

The other hat that Wu has is as an investor and board member of Oslo’s brand new shipping bank, Maritime & Merchant,

which launched last October and is focused on finance for mid-sized and smaller shipping companies.

“There is a need for this niche market. We were first to sign up,” Wu says.

Landmark Holdings has an 18.75% stake in the bank, with other shareholders including European shipping heavyweights Henning Oldendorff and Arne Blystad.

Wu has been in and around China’s dramatic offshore buildup of the past 16 years. It’s a long way removed from his days as a neurosurgeon, still that time in medical practice has stood him in good stead.

“As a doctor you are trained to observe patients without any touch, or questions.

We also have psychological training; this is all useful for doing business,” he concludes.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

LANDMARK HOLDINGS HEADED BY OFFSHORE veteran David Wu, investor in semisubmersibles, financial adviser to international owners seeking Chinese capital, involved in development of radical new LNG containment system and a boardmember of new Oslo bank, Maritime & Merchant.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

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■ ■ ■ PROFILE

China’s first LNG shipmanager SinoShip catches up with Paul Oliver, the general manager of China LNG Shipping (International) Co

C

hina LNG Shipping (International) Co (CLSICO) is a Hong Kong-based LNG shipmanagement company whose role is to manage LNG ships importing LNG into China. It was created as part of China’s first LNG import project, importing LNG to a new receiving terminal in Dapeng Bay in Guangdong province. It was established in April 2004 as a collaboration between majority Chinese interests – Cosco and China Merchants — and an experienced LNG ship operator — BP Shipping. As a further collaboration between Chinese and foreign participants, the ships to be managed were all built in Shanghai’s

Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard, based upon a design from France’s Chantiers de l’Atlantique and with construction supervision services provided by Shell.

From the start, the ships were crewed by a mix of Chinese and Western sea staff, the former seconded from Cosco and China Merchants, the latter from BP Shipping.

From these early beginnings, the CLSICO managed fleet has grown to six, serving the Dapeng LNG terminal (3 ships), the Fujian LNG terminal (2 ships) and the Shanghai LNG terminal (1 ship). The six are sister ships — of 147,000 cu m capacity, with membrane containment systems and steam propulsion.

In July 2013, BP Shipping exercised

Rates for voyage charters look like being lower this year than they have been for some time 20

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an option to exit from CLSICO, selling its shares to China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC).

“Despite BP Shipping’s exit, CLSICO will continue to be resourced by a combination of Chinese and Western staff, in the office and on the ships”, CLSICO’s general manager Paul Oliver tells SinoShip.

Oliver stresses that CLSICO is focused only on China-linked business and there are no plans to stray from this aim.

“CLSICO’s role is to serve Chinese projects. We were not established and we do not intend to bid for projects that have no China connection,” he says.

Looking at rates for LNG carriers, Oliver says: “With a lot of new capacity being delivered, rates for voyage charters look like being lower this year than they have been for some time, but how long that will last is not clear,” he says.

Most of these new ships will eventually find their way into new projects, Oliver says, explaining that it is normal for terminal projects to be behind schedule while ships are delivered on time, leading to surplus capacity in the short term.

In terms of large LNG carrier construction in China, Shanghai’s HudongZhonghua continues to have a monopoly, but Oliver reckons others such as Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co and Nantong COSCO KHI Ship Engineering (NACKS) are capable of building these expensive ships.

The challenge they and others face is that only Hudong-Zhonghua has a track record.

“LNG shipowners tend to be highly risk averse, so this is hard market to break into,” Oliver says, adding: “But there is a lot of business to go around, so I would not be surprised to see a second Chinese yard building LNG ships within the next few years.”

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

CLSICO HONG KONG-BASED C hina LNG Shipping (International) Co (CLSICO) is China’s first LNG shipmanager, founded 10 years ago. Current shareholders are Cosco, China Shipping and CNOOC. Fleet comprises six 147,000 cu m membrane type ships.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■ NEED TO KNOW

NEED TO KNOW ZHENHUA SHIPPING FOUNDED 19 YEARS ago, the subsidiary of ZPMC, the world’s largest port equipment manufacturer, now has 23 vessels, a mixture of semisubmersibles and large crane barges.

Foraging for business Zhenhua Shipping is touting its services to third parties as parent ZPMC readjusts to lower container terminal development growth

Z

henhua Shipping used to have it all so easy. Anyone who has hung around a developing container terminal long enough is likely to have seen one of Zhenhua’s ships over the years carrying giant cranes.

Zhenhua Shipping is the subsidiary of Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries, better known as ZPMC, the world’s dominant port equipment manufacturer.

The line, established in 1995, grew in

tandem with the exponential growth in container terminals across the world seen in the previous decade. However, the very best days of such growth are now in the past, which has meant Zhenhua Shipping has had to transform and offer its

semi-submersible and large crane barge services to third parties.

Traditional port machinery orders have dropped sharply in the past two years, and ZPMC only just managed to claw its way back into profit in 2013 following huge losses in previous years.

Due to the fluctuation of the parent company’s business, Zhenhua Shipping, which was only focused on internal business, has been forced to make adjustments.

“For a long time in the past, we didn’t think much of the need to change, but now in this depressed market situation, we have to go to the open market and join the competition,” says Chen Bin, general manager of Zhenhua Shipping.

“In order to enter this new market and face new demands, both the structure and scale of the fleet need to be adjusted.

The expansion of capacity is unavoidable, but the new capacity has to be efficiently matched with market demand. The company will spend about three years to adjust the fleet structure and further enhance operating levels,” Chen says.

“There is still profit margins for project cargo shipping, we will remain at a relatively stable developing status in the future and strengthen our advantages to add competitiveness in the market. We are now at the stage of accumulation, and what we need is to find the breakthrough point,” Chen adds.

Currently Zhenhua Shipping runs 23 vessels in its fleet. Among clients are big names such as Hutchison Whampoa, Hyundai Heavy Industries, Doosan Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Yantai Raffles.

New capacity has to be efficiently matched with market demand SINOSHIP spring 2014

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Breakbulk ■ ■ ■

Overseas hope Domestically the nation’s heavy machinery manufacturers are facing overcapacity. Beijing has told them to export more. Good news for local lines, reports Jason Jiang

A

s traditional bulk and container sectors remain weak, breakbulk has become one of the few growth points in shipping. With opportunities from the growing number of global infrastructure projects and China becoming one of the leading manufacturers of project equipment, breakbulk players in the People’s Republic have started a new round of fleet optimisation in order to keep pace with market demand.

Moreover, Beijing is helping out. At the end of 2013, the State Council introduced a new guidance to many industries, which are currently suffering from overcapacity including the heavy project machinery industry. The council is encouraging companies to expand exports as an important strategy to solve the overcapacity problem and specific favourable policies will soon be announced.

Cosco Shipping, which acquired Guangzhou Ocean Shipping from parent Cosco Group in early 2013 to integrate its

special vessel shipping business, placed an order for four 36,000 dwt multipurpose vessels at CSSC Guangzhou Huangpu Shipbuilding at the end of last year. The order is worth a total of RMB894m. Earlier last year, Cosco Shipping placed orders for four similar vessels at Nantong COSCO KHI Ship Engineering (NACKS).

Infrastructure projects in emerging markets like Africa and Latin America remain active “Affected by the depression of the dry bulk market, our businesses in multipurpose vessels are weak this year and the lumber shipping business also remains at a low level amid the lumber export ban in Africa. However, we have made achievements in the adjustment of our fleet

structure and the operation of heavylift vessels and submersible vessels has gained some growth,” says a senior project manager from Cosco Shipping.

“The new Chinese government has committed to further adjust the structure of the economy, while infrastructure projects in emerging markets like Africa and Latin America remain active. The growing trend for global wind power installation, and the enhancement of offshore equipment manufacturing capacity in China will all support the shipping market for special project cargoes,” the Cosco official reckons.

According to the China International Contractors’ Association, although the growth of China’s overseas contracting project volumes has slowed down for the past two years due to the global economic recession, things are picking up and there should be a steady growth of about 10% annually in the next two years.

“The special project cargo shipping market is expected to warm up in 2014. The SINOSHIP spring 2014

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Export volumes to emerging countries have been growing rapidly multipurpose vessel fleet, which accounts for more than 60% of our income, is key to the improvement of our profit, and one of our strategies is to sign collaboration deals with more cargo owners,” the Cosco official adds.

Cosco Shipping signed a cooperation agreement with Dutch oil giant Shell in February. The agreement saw Cosco Shipping successfully negotiate a QHSE assessment from Shell and officially become a transport supplier for

the energy firm’s heavylift cargoes. Cosco Shipping said the signing marked a new milestone in expanding into the global specialised shipping markets. In the same month, the company also signed a similar agreement with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), which has a number of nuclear infrastructure projects overseas. Cosco Shipping reported a net profit of RMB31.49m last year, a year-on-year growth of 147.42%.

Chipolbrok gets back into ordering Heavylift vessel operator Chinese-Polish Joint Stock Shipping Co (Chipolbrok) has come back to the newbuilding market recently, ordering four 36,000 dwt heavy lift vessels at Jiangsu New Yangzi Shipbuilding in February with deliveries

RECORD BREAKING RAIL TRIP CHINESE INLAND TERRITORIES are increasingly looking at rail to source European construction equipment, and rail schedules are speeding up.

With a record transit time of only nine days between Brest at the PolishBelorussian border and Erenhot at the border between Mongolia and China, the InterRail Group, a Swiss-based rail freight service provider, has set groundbreaking standards this February for rail transport along the wide-gauge railway connection between Europe and China. The distance was over 8,000 km and it was covered in a record speed of 900 km per day.

On board the train were 41 high-cube 40-foot containers, laden mainly with steel

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equipment for infrastructure projects in the Chinese hinterland.

Since 2012, the InterRail Group has intensified its commitment and activities in operating container block trains between Europe and China. The group cooperates with partners and local governments in economically growing urban agglomerations of the Chinese hinterland such as Chengdu, Wuhan, and Zhengzhou, as well as with China Railway Corporation and its subsidiaries.

“With traffic from and to China, we will continue relying on a combination of strong operational partnerships in the countries of the CIS and Mongolia, combined with strong customer contacts in

scheduled in 2015 and 2016. The orders followed on from four 32,000 dwt ships ordered last year at Shanghai Shipyard also for delivery in 2015 and 2016.

“We have seen a decreasing trade volume of heavy project cargo between China and developed countries like the US and European countries, however, export volumes to emerging countries have been growing rapidly which is the new opportunity for Chipolbrok,” says Li Yiping, vice general manager of Chipolbrok. Li adds that Chipolbrok will not give up on its traditional routes, but will try to get more cargoes through adding more calling ports at emerging markets. The company has added more ports in the Caribbean region, Mexico and the Eastern Mediterranean region lately.

China and Western and Central Europe”, says Howard Lamb, ceo of InterRail Group.

“There is significant demand for reliable transport services cheaper than air freight and faster than sea freight, which is why we are extending our service portfolio for rail freight”, Lamb explains.

A decisive criteria for the realisation of sustainable Euro-Asian rail freight products is, as Lamb emphasizes, the balance of container flows in both directions. “Here, we still need more innovation. Traditionally, eastbound is regarded as a backhaul trade.”

Lamb points out he sees potential in a reliable service with hubs in Brest and at the border stations in Western China: “This could strengthen eastbound traffic and guarantee the cost-efficient roundtrip utilisation of containers and rolling stock.”

Breakbulk ■ ■ ■

Port developments Jason Jiang notes the growth in project berths around the Yangtze river delta

S

hanghai Nanhui Port, a new breakbulk and roro port which is located on the northern bank of Hangzhou Bay, was opened in the second half of 2013. The port has nine berths and a designated annual capacity of 2.5m tonnes.

It mainly serves the heavy equipment manufacturers and car manufacturers in Shanghai Lingang Industrial Area.

“The opening of Nanhui Port will greatly save logistics costs and enhance logistics efficiency for the companies in Shanghai Lingang Industrial Area and help them better serve the demands from the international market,” says Zhu Weiqiang, vice president of Shanghai Lingang Group.

Xugong Construction Machinery Group (XCMG), the top heavy machinery manufacturing company in China and one of the largest construction equipment makers in the world, is currently developing its second largest manufacturing and R&D base at Shanghai Lingang Industrial Area with a total investment of RMB10bn. The base will be dedicated to producing export-led high-end machinery and components, and will have an annual producing capacity of

20,000 medium to large excavators upon completion of the first phase of the project later this year. The company will also expand its business to port machinery and offshore equipment later on.

“The Lingang project will become XCMG’s important base for the R&D of new products and international expansion,” says Wang Min, president of XCMG. Besides ocean breakbulk shipping, there is also an increasing demand for breakbulk cargo shipping on China’s inland rivers.

International Port (CCIP), for RMB436.5m in February. It goes alongside an existing port it owns next door. The port has also got approval to open one 30,000 dwt and two 3,000 dwt breakbulk berths to foreign flagged ships.

May Ng, the group’s ceo, says, “The acquisition enhances the facilities we can offer to our customers as well as provides increased capacity for domestic cargoes. By scaling up our port business, we can achieve commercial and operational synergies and efficiency. We are confident of improving returns from the port and creating more shareholder value in the medium term.

“With two multipurpose ports in our stable, we expect to increase our market share and boost our position as one of China’s key logistics hubs serving the industrial hinterland along the Yangtze river.”

The promising perspective of China’s development inland has lured overseas investors Many ports along the Yangtze river have developed breakbulk berths lately. The promising perspective of China’s development inland has also lured overseas investors.

Singapore’s Pan-United Corporation, through its 85.5%-owned Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP), bought a 90% stake in a multipurpose port, Changshu Changjiang

Currently among the top 10 river ports in China, CXP is a hub for pulp, logs and finished steel products for the Chinese market.

As at September 2013, CXP handled over 16% of China’s pulp imports and 18% of the nation’s log imports from New Zealand.

Pan-United joins another Singapore firm, Jurong Port, in having Chinese breakbulk terminals among its portfolio.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Sun setting for many Prices for ship repair are near historic lows in China. Katherine Si charts the withering fortunes of this hard-pressed sector

W

hat is becoming clear about China’s sprawling ship repair scene is a strong geographic split between north and south, the former facing overcapacity, the latter looking well placed.

Currently, there are six major ship repair companies in the north, located in Dalian, 26

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Shanhaiguan, Tianjin and Qingdao. There’s also the new giant facilities of Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co, which have yet to be put into operation. The overall ship repair capacity in this region is estimated to be more than the south.

Ship repair as a business has been in the doldrums for the past four years and overcapacity has crept in, which has been most

evident in China in the north of the country.

Shipowners prefer to repair ships in the south of the country because they are nearer to major tradelanes and also do not suffer the harsh winters that hit the north of the country. Southern yards tend to have more international owners as customers whereas in the north business tends to come from local owners,

Ship Repair ■ ■ ■ Shanghai and the Yangtze river delta, there are 11 major repair yards with some 2.6m dwt capacity. Overcapacity is an issue here too with plenty of empty slots reported.

Just south of there in one of China’s main repair heartlands, the Zhoushan archipelago, business is still robust with very little spare capacity.

Heading further south, the repair yards of Fujian which include Cosco Xiamen and Quanzhou Taishan, tend to only handle low value jobs. Management, infrastructure and technology at Fujian yards tend to have a big gap compared to the leading Chinese yards meaning they tend to carry out simple work, often on smaller ships. Nevertheless, they are busy and with Xiamen pushing to become a true shipping hub there is every chance yards in the province will prosper.

Guangdong, meanwhile, is home to many high-class repair yards, with plenty of foreign capital supporting the industry there.

“After several years of low price competition, some repair companies are suffering from a poor financial situation,” admits Wang Kewu, deputy general manager of Chengxi Shipyard (Guangzhou). Wang is adamant that prices cannot get any lower.

Most yards SinoShip contacted for this report concur that 2013 was more tough than 2012 and that this pricing war will lead to plenty of bankruptcies if it continues much longer.

Yan Chengxiang, deputy general manager of Cosco Shipyard, suggests the domestic ship repair yards should work together to set up a better pricing system and protect the industry as a whole before there are too many casualties.

Some of the yards even hope the government or the national yard association could unite the yards together and punish those with a bad reputation and those who continue to pursue excessive competition, as well as drawing up a black list of owners who fail to pay on time.

Price war

On the other hand, the government has released a series of policies to support the scrapping of older ships, a move designed to boost shipbuilders. Owners can now receive a bonus from ship scrapping rather than ship repair, further ladling the pressure on the nation’s hard pressed repair facilities.

Under this difficult environment, many of the repair yards are looking for new directions, with some targeting the booming offshore sector.

Ship conversion or yacht and cruiseship repair might be a new trend for other struggling yards.

Ship conversions offer some salvation. For instance, Cosco Shipyard, one of China’s top repair yards was able to stay in positive financial territory last year in no small part thanks to its raft of conversion work.

Cosco Shipyard handled three FPSO conversions last year and has also made big inroads into the offshore repair sector.

Another source of business is in shipping lines looking to shave off their bunker bills by altering the shape of their ships’ bulbous bows. China has become the centre for this shipping rhinoplasty.

Containerlines led by Maersk and CMA CGM have been at the forefront of this maritime nose job craze.

Nevertheless, the odd naval nip and tuck is not enough to keep all yards flourishing.

The problem for many yards in China is

Overcapacity is more evident in the north of the country

which has brought about a severe lowprice competition environment, according to Li Yubin, deputy secretary of the Ship Repair Technology Commission.

With the recent adjustment of the domestic steel industry, the coal and iron ore demands of northern China have also declined, which has added further pressure on yards up north.

In the east of the country, around

Beijing is now offering subsidies to scrap ships; bad news for repairers

that low prices have been around for too long and prices continue to decline.

In the first half of 2013, for instance, the 15 largest ship repair yards in China repaired 1,733 ships in total, a decline of 0.17% year-on-year. However, the completed ship repair value for that period stood at RMB5.13bn, a drop of 16.7% year-on-year.

Weak freight rates mean owners are unwilling to do anything bar the absolute minimum when it comes to repair and maintenance of their vessels. This has led to near record lows in pricing for repair jobs with many yards teetering on the edge of insolvency from taking on too many jobs at below cost.

“Currently, the structural overcapacity has caused severe competition in the domestic ship repair market. Less orders make the general ship repair business stay in a depressed situation. A price war has become the major method that the repair yards get orders at the moment,” an official from leading state-owned ship repair company China Shipping Industry tells SinoShip.

Paid to scrap

SINOSHIP spring 2014

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■ ■ ■ HUBS: SHANGHAI

That sinking feeling China’s stock exchanges have been tightened up and there’s now little chance of local shipping lines floating any time soon SINCE THE SHANGHAI Stock Exchange (SSE) resumed IPOs at the end of December 2013 after a year-long moratorium, investors have rushed to buy the shares of new debuts, causing first-day prices to skyrocket. As the exchange lurched into life, China’s securities regulator introduced a number of investor protection measures designed to increase confidence in listed company fundamentals.

Commentators thought that this would encourage Chinese companies to float and indeed appetite seemed voracious as hundreds of companies queued to pad their coffers by selling equity.

Yet, at the end of January, shipping companies were absent from the hopefuls seeking to list on either the Shanghai or Shenzhen bourses.

“Of course, shipping companies will want to float to raise money, cash-flow in the market is not great, it’s bleeding. But for now, shipping companies will not be able to float because they wouldn’t be able to meet the profits necessary for the listing requirements,” says Ji Yuntao, a shipping securities analyst from Industrial Securities.

But state-owned companies may list, even though it is unlikely that private shipping firms will float in the near-term.

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bad and it is unlikely that there will be much opportunity for private companies to make use of equity financing,” says an analyst from Huatai Securities.

fundamentals of the shipping industry, so even if investors are speculating on new listing companies, and even if all the other shares go up and inves-

Everyone knows that the shipping market is in the midst of a downturn While most of the companies that floated on the SSE in January saw their share price increase by 44% on their listing day — the upper limit allowed by China’s new trading rules — the share prices of major shipping players were lower than ever.

Cosco’s share price fell to its lowest level since August last year, China Shipping Container Lines saw a new four-month low and China Shipping Development reported its lowest price since November.

“The buoyancy of the SSE will not have an impact on the

tors have more confidence in listed companies, everyone still knows that the shipping market is in the midst of a downturn,” says Ji. A listed company has to make financials publicly available, which means investors can keep track of any tweaks to cover poor performance.

“Everyone knows that Cosco made a loss in 2012, so can’t afford to make one in 2013 or else they will get kicked off the exchange — they announced they would make a profit by selling their assets — everyone

knows it’s not profitable, so no one is going to buy their shares,” explains Ji. “The situation is the same for China Shipping, everyone knows that it made a loss last year.”

As the dust settles from the slew of stricter rules, inefficient listed shipping companies may need to up the ante to impress investors.

Recently, China’s Securities Regulatory Commission tightened the rules on the provision of financial information, requesting deeper auditor analysis.

The commission also introduced new laws on the initial public offering price, which cannot be too much higher than the industry average, or listing will be delayed by three weeks with a requirement to circulate public risk warnings.

And it recently announced an investigation into the pricing behaviour of underwriters and institutional investors.

“For the securities regulator, the aim is not only to improve investor confidence, but to allow the market a greater say in the IPO process. The market in the future will be more ideal.

For example, it should become more transparent, which will lead to a higher trading volume,” says the Huatai analyst.

“Investors will be more able to focus on the companies that have real strength. So weak companies will find their share price will fall significantly, but good ones will see an increase.”

HUBS: TAIPEI ■ ■ ■

Asian free trade focus Taiwan is pursuing trade pacts, which could be good news for local box carriers, argues David Green

T

aiwan’s November signing of a free trade pact with Singapore is a step towards the greater regional trade liberalisation needed to sustain demand for container shipping in the mid-term.

The pact, the first of its kind Taiwan has signed with a Southeast Asian country, complements a similar agreement signed with New Zealand earlier in 2013.

The two deals have been heralded as important precursors to Taiwan’s possible inclusion in either the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), or the China-centric Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the latter of which notionally comprises 16 members across Asia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Both partnerships are under negotiation, but their eventual success is important because intra-Asia trade must continue to grow strongly to keep pace with burgeoning shipping capacity, according to Rahul Kapoor, senior analyst at Drewry Maritime Equity Research.

“Any FTA is going to be positive in terms of trade volumes,” Kapoor says, adding that the Singapore agreement is unlikely to significantly affect goods trade due to Singapore’s free port status. “Obviously, any duty cuts will boost trade but it’s very hard to put a number on that for now.

“In terms of the specific lines, Wan Hai’s intra-Asia focus does indicate it would be most likely [of Taiwan’s three major lines] to benefit from regional trade deals, but trade volumes have been growing anyway, and it’s not the demand side that’s the problem.”

Huge container capacity growth, primarily amongst Taiwan’s regional rivals, has

pinned down intra-Asia rates, and even with solid trade growth, Kapoor says he does not see that changing for the next 18 months.

In the meantime Taiwan is positioning itself to take advantage of any opening to accede to either TPP or RCEP, but Chinese opposition is a stumbling block to progress, and not just as regards Taiwan’s inclusion.

“TPP negotiations are stalling because the deadline has already passed [in December] and key proposed members including Malaysia and Vietnam do not want to annoy China [by subscribing to a US-led agreement],” comments Sanchita Basu Das, lead researcher for economic affairs in the ASEAN Studies Centre at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

Irrespective of whether Taiwan manages to resolve

other regional partners, according to Das. “Under the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation goods agreements you already have low tariffs, so Taiwan’s possible inclusion in TPP or RCEP has much broader implications for 21st century trade, including for competition policy, intellectual property protection and financial services,” she says. “I don’t think Taiwan can join the TPP if China is not part of the agreement. I think it should first pursue bilateral agreements with Malaysia or Thailand.”

Indeed, Taiwan’s representative to Kuala Lumpur, Lo Yu-chung, called for the two countries to sign a trade agreement on December 30, noting that Taiwanese companies were losing market share due to the 10% duty imposed on their exports to Malaysia, even as

Wan Hai’s intra-Asia focus makes it the most likely to benefit from regional trade deals the diplomatic impasse with China, the bilateral deals with Singapore and New Zealand offer a blueprint for Taiwan to sign similar agreements with

two-way trade grew 13% on the year to reach $15bn in the first 11 months of 2013.

While further bilateral deals and Taiwan’s eventual inclusion

in either TPP or RCEP would obviously be positive for trade through the island’s ports, it does not necessarily have to be a signatory for its carriers and ports to benefit.

“Trade agreements signed between surrounding countries, particularly South Korea, Japan and members of ASEAN, will boost transhipment volumes through Taiwan,” says Paul TaeWoo Lee, a visiting professor at Taipei’s Soochow University, and one of a handful of people who has studied the impact of South Korea’s free trade agreements on seaborne trade volumes Consequently, the successful signing of RCEP, due in 2015, with China at its centre, which will usher in improved coverage of duty exempt goods trade between members, is key for Taiwan to maintain its transhipment hub status because of the trade growth it will drive, Lee says.

Taiwan is keenly aware of the geopolitical importance of its involvement in new international trade partnerships.

Even so, progress on the deals irrespective of Taiwan’s inclusion should be viewed as essential for the Asia-wide trade growth necessary to sustain ongoing carrier capacity expansion, and knockon transhipment trade.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

29

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HUBS: HONG KONG ■ ■ ■

What we should do now is upgrade Hong Kong to be on a par with London as an international shipping service hub

SHIPPING IN CY Leung is doing more to promote maritime than any of his predecessors since reunification

Focused at last SinoShip applauds the decision by the CY Leung administration to create a maritime bureau FINALLY, THE HONG Kong government is to focus more attention on shipping. A new maritime bureau, which will include port development as well as shipping services, will be established.

Hong Kong has seen its preeminence in Asian shipping fade over the past decade with many in the industry constantly urging previous

administrations under Tung Chee-hwa and Donald Tsang to act. CY Leung, the current head of Hong Kong, has been, by far, the most proactive leader to promote Hong Kong’s shipping strengths since reunification with China in 1997.

“In the coming year, the government will work out the specific function, structure and funding of the proposed new

body and consult the industry.

We will then take forward the necessary legislative procedures as soon as possible,” Leung said in January while delivering his second policy address.

“What we should do now is to upgrade Hong Kong to be on par with London as an international shipping service hub,” lawmaker Miriam Lau Kin-yee said, adding that it was

Asia’s first ECA HONG KONG HAS moved a step closer to forming Asia’s first Emissions Control Area (ECA). The Air Pollution Control (Marine Light Diesel) Regulation was gazetted in mid-January to introduce regulatory control on the quality of marine light diesel (MLD) with a view to reducing emissions from local vessels.

A spokesman for the Environmental Protection Department said that the regulation provides for the specifications that must be met by locally supplied MLD, which include a 0.05% sulphur limit, which is a 90% reduction from

SMOKEY VIEW Visibility is less than 8km for 30% of the year in Hong Kong the current sulphur content of MLD which is about 0.5%.

“Marine vessels operating on 0.05% sulphur diesel emit about 90% less sulphur dioxide (SO2) and 30% less respirable suspended particulates (RSPs) than those operating on 0.5% sulphur diesel. Implementing the regulation will reduce

emissions of SO2 and RSPs from the marine sector by 19% and 10% respectively. This will help to improve the ambient air quality and reduce health risks for the population, especially those in the coastal areas,” the official said.

Any person who supplies non-compliant MLD may be

important to focus more on services than the boxport as neighbour Shenzhen was taking box traffic away from the former British colony.

“The new bureau needs to be run by an industry veteran who knows the industry from inside out,” Sabrina Chao, the chairman of Wah Kwong, told the South China Morning Post. “It’s not too late if we can act and catch up now,” she maintained.

Memorably, the head of shipmanager Anglo-Eastern Group, Peter Cremers, described to SinoShip last year Hong Kong’s maritime chances: “The train has already left the station for Singapore,” he said, and while it is true the Hong Kong government is around a decade late in focusing on maritime, the move by the CY Leung team is still to be applauded. liable to a fine of up to $50,000 and imprisonment for up to three months.

The local Hong Kong government has been in touch with neighbouring administrations in Shenzhen and Guangzhou to push the ECA region across the Pearl river delta.

A recent report from local think tank Civic Exchange and the University of Science and Technology shows that ship pollution is the biggest contributor to deaths related from sulfur dioxide emissions.

The report suggested that introducing an ECA can cut sulfur dioxide emissions in the Pearl river delta region by as much as 95%.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

31

■ ■ ■ BOOKS

ON A HIGH The nation will host this year’s football World Cup and the Olympics in 2016

Hot prospect Paul French looks at the B in the BRIC equation, Brazil AMONG THE FABLED BRIC countries it is perhaps the ‘B’ — Brazil — that is the least explored and known by most people. China and India have had literally shelves and shelves of books written about them and become “dream” markets for just about every business and service. Russia has been well covered, if perhaps mostly to warn the eager businessman or woman of the perils of the vast, but super tricky, market. Brazil though remains the least known. Of course there are snapshots — beaches, soccer, favelas, sunshine … but what of the economy and society of the country. With the 2014 football World Cup imminent and the Rio Olympics in 2016,along with growing curiosity about the country’s untapped consumer markets and manufacturing output, it seems it will be Brazil that will be filling shelves this year.

Brazil, unsurprisingly, features heavily in the man who invented the term ‘BRICs’ Jim 32

WWW.SINOSHIPNEWS.COM

O’Neill’s new book The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond. When O’ Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, started talking about the BRICs in 2001 Brazil was a country that had long been viewed as having the potential to become a major economy. For decades, Brazil had failed to live up to expectations. This changed in 2003 when Lula da Silva became president, and began an effective anti-inflation pol-

make the country as hard to fully penetrate as Russia, China or India.

Ruchir Sharma’s Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles also surveys the BRICs but is less enthusiastic about Brazil citing that in the country investment as a share of GDP has been stagnating at about 19 or 20% of GDP — i.e. Brazil is too reliant on commodities exports and so at the mercy of global price fluctuations. Additionally, Sharma, an emerging market portfolio manager, reckons Brazil has massively underinvested in terms of upgrading its infrastructure to what it needs to fully emerge as an industrial and manufacturing powerhouse.

Brazil could be the ultimate emerging market, if it just sat back and saw itself that way icy. The end result, O’Neill says, is that Brazil will have an economy in 2050 that is four times larger than today. This will be due to the country’s young and energetic population and a ‘Growth Acceleration Policy’ that should work. However, bureaucracy, political controls and investment regulations

So much for the generalists, what about those who’ve got up close and personal with the country? New York Times reporter Larry Rohter charts Brazil’s amazing jump from a debtor nation to one of the world’s fastest growing economies in Brazil on the Rise: The Story of a Country Transformed.

In contrast to many, Rohter praises the benefits obtained for Brazilian development through the significant role given to the state in economic policy but, he believes, Brazil continues to be a country fraught with contradictions. However, with the discovery of the largest oil field in the last century, it has the opportunity to become a major exporter of crude oil to the United States and so fund its own development.

Finally, we have a collection of essays from analysts at the Global Economy and Development (Global) program at the Brookings Institution, Brazil As an Economic Superpower?: Understanding Brazil’s Changing Role in the Global Economy. The book analyses the key pillars of Brazil’s economy — energy, agriculture, service industries, and high technology. All areas where Brazil has the power to be a world player, yet Latin America’s largest nation still struggles with endemic inequality issues and deep-seated ambivalence toward global economic integration.

What all these books seem to conclude is that Brazil could be the ultimate emerging market, if it just sat back and saw itself that way.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

At a gallop or stumbling over a furlong?

Lunar New Year has a host of traditions that are an integral part of the celebrations.

Bei Hong looks at how some might apply to shipping NOW THAT ALL the New Year festivals are behind us, we can focus on the daily grind again.

I have never been a big fan of Western New Year celebrations. The sense of expectation that this is going to be ‘the best party ever’ never seems to be realized and trying to get a taxi home in the freezing cold along with thousands of others, many of whom have overindulged a little, is not really my idea of a good start to the year. Much more palatable is the familyorientated Chinese equivalent, with many customs and rituals which perhaps the shipping industry could learn a thing or two from, or perhaps they already are.

First amongst the traditions for Chinese New Year is to give your home a good spring clean.

Recent new regulations suggest that the Chinese domestic shipping industry will be

embarking on a phasing out of older tonnage whilst some of the major Chinese owners seem to already be following tradition and have earmarked some of their old ladies for scrap. With the outlook for the Year of the Horse looking better than the preceding Year of the Snake, many other owners might be tempted to give ageing tonnage another quick lap round the block, so perhaps a more strict adherence to this custom could give us all a better chance of prosperity in this equine year.

In advance of the celebrations, it is also traditional to pay off your debts. Improved markets mean that we haven’t got

charterers pleading poverty to the same extent as the last few years, but no doubt there are quite a few European bankers who will be hoping their clients follow this particular tradition.

With new clothes traditionally being worn on the first day of the New Year, the run up to the celebrations sees a veritable shopping frenzy, particularly for shoes. We seem to be seeing the shopping tradition being followed in the newbuilding market to an alarming degree, with that old favourite, the VLCC, making a particularly dramatic comeback to the orderbook in the last few months of the old year. All these new ships might not be coming out during the

The wild volatility seen so far this year could mean the horse will give us all one hell of a ride

Year of the Horse, but does this rush to the shops mean the Year of the Monkey and Rooster in 2016 and 2017 will be grim?

Only time will tell, but perhaps if shipowners follow another tradition of not buying new clothes for a month after Lunar New Year, we might be spared the worst.

Whether you are consulting an astrologer or one of the numerous research reports which drops on your desk every day, trying to make sense of the year ahead has never been more difficult. The optimists seem to be convinced that this year will be better than the last, and based on how awful shipping markets were for the first nine months of 2013, that shouldn’t be too difficult. Others point to the wild volatility we have already experienced in the first couple of months of this calendar year as evidence that the horse is going to give us all a wild ride. However it turns out, may be it be a happy and healthy year for you all.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

33

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OPINION ■ ■ ■

The curious incident of the dog in the nighttime EXPENSIVE ‘ The risks are getting too big for the P&I system that we have grown up with’

Andrew Craig-Bennett looks at the likely pile up of giant P&I claims WITH THE BBC’S modernised version of Sherlock all the rage in China, this is a column on P&I imbued with the colour of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.

I am not going to tell you which P&I Club to insure with, or how. Your broker can do that.

I want to look at something else.

When I was a callow youth, in the third quarter of the last century, the institution known as Lloyd’s was mighty pleased with itself. Its members prided themselves on the excellence of their (paper) systems, on their having, famously, been the only insurers to honour their policies after the San Francisco fire, thereby securing, through the foresight of Cuthbert Heath, a century’s dominance of North American insurance, on their calm fortitude in accepting unlimited liability and on the excellence of their market making system, which could and did price any risk other than those which Lloyd’s itself had deemed uninsurable under the Waterborne Agreement.

Things are different now.

After the Rowland reforms, all that really remains of that body of (almost entirely) men, who once bestrode the insurance world like a colossus, is the excellent pricing mechanism.

Real power has almost left the building. Ask Warren Buffett.

But not quite: the annual negotiation of the P&I Clubs’ Group Excess of Loss contract threw up an interesting little twist, or so a small bird tells me.

Reeling under the considerable shock of the most expensive wreck removal operation yet attempted, Munich Re, or so I am informed, proposed that, in

future, wreck removal claims should be limited to $1bn per single accident or occurrence.

This did not come to pass; others on the slip declined to follow the Munich Re’s lead. For the moment, the possibility of another Costa Concordia type wreck removal remains. A little victory for London.

The rather alarming prospect is that these circumstances may not be unusual. The P&I Clubs have been told that a mistake in the design of the sponsons required to float the hulk of Captain Schettino’s ship has added another $12m to the bill. That’s a pool claim in itself.

Yet nobody batted an eyelid. A trifling sum of misery added to the account.

Scotland Yard detective: “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”

Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the nighttime.”

Detective: “The dog did nothing in the nighttime.”

Holmes: “That was the curious incident.

It is not the prospect of an even bigger bill that should concern anyone. It is the likelihood that claims of these ruinous proportions will occur again, and again.

You might have thought that the shipowners of the world, having to pay for these enormous losses, would first demand an explanation from Carnival Corporation as to why they did not require Schettino to at least lay down a parallel index, before showing off to his girlfriend, and an explanation from Mitsubishi Heavy, MOL and Class NK as to why their ship broke in two in quite normal weather. Not rocket science; common sense. Nobody even asked.

The dog did nothing in the nighttime — did not even bark — because the dog recognised its owner.

The ordinary shipowners of the world have not barked.

They recognise their owners — the handful of giant corporations, with incomes bigger than the GDP of many nations, who alone can perpetrate such awful follies as these, and require everyone else to pay for them.

SINOSHIP spring 2014

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■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

36

WWW.SINOSHIPNEWS.COM

MAKE MINE A PINT Hundreds attended SinoShip’s beer and barbecue party at the most recent Marintec China event in Shanghai. The event was supported by Transas and Wilhelmsen 数百人参加了SINOSHIP在近期上海国际海事展中举办的啤酒烧烤聚会。 该活动由Transas和Wilhelmsen赞助举办

SINOSHIP spring 2014

37

Bringing maritime media out of the dark ages

2014

print & online media information at www.asiashippingmedia.com

惠生的世界首创项目 振华船运调整业务方向 2014年春季刊

www.sinoshipnews.com

散杂货特稿 修船专题 香港即将成立 新海事局

海工业老将

邬卫华谈及中国能源竞赛

om 日 在 s.c 每 更新 new 文 hip 中 inos s w. ww

水泥贸易形势艰难

ClassNK 伴随海事产业而成长 不断进取，积极应对 随着全球经济发展与结构转变，当今的海事产业正面临各种前所未有的挑战。 日本海事协会（简称ClassNK）注册船舶总吨约占世界商船总吨的20%，是全球 知名的船级社。我们充分理解海事产业的需求，并根据海事产业对安全航运的需 要，积极开展全新的服务与技术研发。在ClassNK主页上，您可以了解到更多我 们为保障各种船舶安全、防止海洋环境污染所作出的努力。www.classnk.or.jp

目录 ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 3 编者语

化危机为转机，才是我们在当 前大环境下的出路

4 经济

— 郭东圣，仁建集团总裁

7 班轮

16

9 船厂 11 离岸 12 金融 13 商品 15 物流

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 16 郭东圣

17

作为一名医生，你被训练过不 用触摸以及问题来观察病人。我 们还有心理方面的培训，这些都 对做生意有益 — 转行海工投资人的前任 神经外科医生邬卫华

17 邬卫华 18 Paul Oliver 19 陈斌

我们不打算争取和中国无关的 项目

■ ■ ■ 专题 21 散杂货

— Paul Oliver， 中国液化天然气船务（国际）总经理

24 修船

18

■ ■ ■ 枢纽

26 上海 27 台北

28 香港

■ ■ ■ 评论

29 书籍

■ ■ ■ 意见

30 Bei Hong 31 Andrew Craig-Bennett

在目前市场大环境低迷的状 况下，我们必须走向市场，加入 竞争

19

— 陈斌， 振华船运总经理

我们当前的任务是促进香港发 展升级，成为堪与伦敦相媲美的 国际航运服务中心 — 地方政治家，刘健仪

28

SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

1

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编者语 ■ ■ ■

www.sinoshipnews.com ASM刊物 编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com 首席通讯记者 司湘

katherine@asiashippingmedia.com 通讯记者 姜浩

jason@asiashippingmedia.com 北京 上海 香港 大连 广州 台北

Li Deng Bai Engen Tham Alfred Romann Mark Downing Wang Fanglei David Green

北极的热门话题

供稿人

Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh 摄影

André Eichman, Basil Pao 所有编辑资料请发送至sam@asiashippingmedia.com 或邮寄到中国大连中山区人民路9号701办公室， 邮编116001 商务主管 Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com 销售主管 Helen Ong helen@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip同时也在东京、首尔和奥斯陆设有广告 代理机构。欲获取当地代理联系信息请发送邮件 到grant@asiashippingmedia.com。 媒体信息可在www.asiashippingmedia.com下载。 所有商务资料请发送至grant@asiashippingmedia. com 或邮寄到Asia Shipping Media, 20 Cecil Street, #14-01 Equity Plaza, Singapore 049705。 设计 Lamma Studio Design 印刷 香港雅联印刷有限公司 订阅 总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取SinoShip 期 刊。对于 所 有 其 他 公 司，订 阅 S i n o S h i p 2 014 年 4 期 需 要 收 费10 0 美 元 。订 阅 每 月 发 行 两 次 的 P D F 格 式 的 S i n o S h i p电子 新 闻（包 含 独 家 新 闻 、数 据 和 分 析）需 收 费5 0 0 美 元。订 阅 咨 询 请发 送 邮 件 到 su b s@ asiashippingmedia.com。 版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd （ASM）, 2014 为确保 本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努 力，但出版社 对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何 责任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不 得对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以 任何形式或方式传输。

临近年底，中国航运业在过去12个月内的 变化无疑多于任何类似时期的市场。许多 行业内最为人知的名字已经离开。 魏家福在中远任职采用极地守则是国际 海事组织秘书长Koji Sekimizu在今年订下 的主要目标之一。中国也许不接壤北极，然 而中国希望能参与这个脆弱地区的开放。 最近又很多关于通过北极地区航行可 能性的热烈讨论。 全世界的航运业都在仔细观察着地球 北端的冰盖情况。由于每年情况都在改变， 关于在这个新区域永久开展海事活动的炒 作日渐转暖。 全球大约十分之一的未发现石油以及三 分之一未发现的天然气资源被认为就藏在 北极的水下。 俄罗斯边缘的北海航线可以缩短亚洲港 口到北欧的航行距离将近40%。 北极可以极大的减少世界工厂中国到其 最大的客户欧洲的中转次数。 与苏伊士运河1,8000次的通过量相比， 去年只有71艘船通过的北海航线，但是大 约有1,000艘船驶入北极，大部分的增长来 自在俄罗斯的油气开采活动。 无疑逐渐变暖的温度为北冰洋的航运活 动创造了机遇。自1979年以来，夏日冰盖的 面积已经减少了40%，相比2012年，2013年 北海航次的数量增长了54%。 中远航运的永盛号，是穿越这条航线的 船只之一。该船在去年八月八日在大连港出 发，并航行3000海里在九月停靠鹿特丹港， 成为中国第一艘穿越北极的商船。该线路 比传统的经过东南亚穿过苏伊士运河的线 路缩短了两个星期的时间。 由于注意到油气行业关于北极航线开放 的强力兴趣，联合国开始起草相关规定以 确保此地区航线的安全。

极地守则将补充现有的相关规定，包括 包括国际海上人命安全公约和海洋污染公 约，以解决船只在极地水域偏远极端的环 境条件下经营的风险。该守则涉及船舶建 造标准，极地安全设备，以及成为一名合格 的极地导航员的要求。 然而，由国际海事组织发布的极地守则 草案没有注明北极海上交通不断增长会带 来的严重问题，一个环境组织最近说道。 关于北极的辩论在 未来几年内还将一 直保持热度。

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 经济

良性的经济减速 Paul French挑选去年值得关注的主题，阐述了更趋成熟的中国经济发展形势 中 国 经 济 现 在 正 式 减 速， 即 增 长 速 度 正 在 放 缓 。这 是 个好消息，因为中国经济可以 以此为契机，实现更合理的‘ 再 平 衡’，从以往出口和 投资 驱动 型 增 长 模 式 逐 渐 转 变 为 主 要 靠内 需 拉动的 经 济增 长 模式。如果逐步成功推行这一 发展模式，并避免突然的起伏 震荡，就意味着中国经济可以 避免‘硬着陆’。长期以来，分 析师们一直 为“再 平衡”和“ 硬 着陆”加上引号，因为总 不 明朗，而且也 总是在争论“再 平衡”和“硬 着陆”是 否已经 真正出现。就我们目前了解的 2013年的经济数据而言，我们 知道中国正在进行再平衡，不 太可能发生硬着陆。

54%

中国的城镇化率， 目前城镇化进程已经 放缓 中国的GDP增速是中国经济 正在减速的最好例证—中国 经济2013年的GDP增幅为7.7% ，与2012年的增幅大致相当， 4

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不过与2011年的9.3%和2010年 的10.5%相比已经大幅回落。 绝大多数分析师都预计，2014 年中国的GDP增幅将为7-7.5% 左右，可谓任重道远。随着中国 经济增长速度放缓，我们一直 都非常熟悉的许多中国发展进 程将逐步终 结，例如，城镇化 率现在达到54%，以往的飞速 增长已经一去不复返；中国人 口结构日趋老龄化，意味着老 年人越来越多，年轻人越来越 少；房地产市场在经历长达十 年的波动之后，或许最终将显 露成熟的迹象。 再 平 衡 意 味 着国内消费 增 加和出口制造减少，现在这些 的确是事 实。多年来，出口对 GDP增长的贡献不算很大，甚 至在2 012年和2 013 年 有点拖 累GDP的增长。将来从中国启 程的集装箱会减少。中国的进 口量可能会增加，目前国内零 售形势喜人—2013年实际零 售额增长11.5%，接近2012年 12.1%和2011年11.6%的水平。 中国的消费量越来越大，并且 其中相当一部分是从国外进口 的产品。 在对华出口方面，有些国家 做得更好一些，韩国和美国表 现得尤为出色。韩国产业通商 资源部报告称，2013年韩国对 华出口占韩国出口总额的26%。

2013年美国对华贸易出口— 创纪录的一年 月份 2013年1月 2013年2月 2013年3月 2013年4月 2013年5月 2013年6月 2013年7月 2013年8月 2013年9月 2013年10月 2013年11月 2013年总计

出口(百万美元) 进口(百万美元) 平衡(百万美元)

9,384.6 9,302.6 9,435.4 8,991.9 8,786.5 9,181.5 8,735.2 9,280.9 9,596.0 13,060.0 13,178.9 108,933.4

37,172.0 32,715.0 27,321.7 33,101.8 36,646.2 35,831.3 38,818.4 39,171.7 40,067.4 41,921.5 40,109.6 402,876.6

-27,787.4 -23,412.5 -17,886.3 -24,109.9 -27,859.7 -26,649.8 -30,083.2 -29,890.8 -30,471.4 -28,861.5 -26,930.7 -293,943.1

资料来源：美国人口调查局(United States Census Bureau)

美国国际贸易委员会的数据显 示，同年美国出口到中国的货物 总值超过1,200亿美元。这创造 了美国对华出口额的新高，比 2012年的总额高出7%左右。中 国现在是美国的第三大贸易伙 伴，仅次于美国的北美自由贸易 协定(NAFTA)合作伙伴加拿大 和墨西哥。 还 有 哪 些因素可能会 影响 中国的进出口货物量呢？基础 设施是一个耐人寻味的领域， 许多组件和产品都通过高速列

车和桥梁运到中国。基础设施 投入经过连年增长之后，在去 年后期增速放缓，不过这种势 头在今年可能会有所改观。如 果您运送的是基础设施相关的 产品，那么这 就是 好消息；如 果您担心通货膨胀问题，那么 这就是坏消息，因为相关投入 必将会推高通胀。2013年通胀 基本保持稳定，消费价格指数 的增长主要源于食品类商品涨 价，与非食品类商品价格关系 不大。

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班轮 ■ ■ ■

船是目前国内唯一有能力生产超 大型液化气运输船的造船厂，首 艘超大型液化气运输船将于今年 年底交付。

一直以来，各方寄望国内最大 的两家航运公司能够达成更紧 密的合作关系，这件事如今有 了进展。2014年2月中旬，中 远 集团和中国海运集团签署了战 略合作框架协议。协议双方将 在航运、码头作业、物流、造船 和修船各领域建立全面的战略 伙伴关系和资源共享机制。双 方在发布的新闻稿中指出，此 举有助于提升“中国航运公司 在全球航运业的影响力”。

为了进一步扩大在天然气运输市 场的占有率，山东海运向江南造 船订购了6艘83,000立方米超大型 液化气运输船（VLGC）。山东 海运目前有3艘2013年购入的二 手超大型液化气运输船。江南造

交通运输部日前新批准两家国 内公司—海洋石油阳江实业有 限公司和浙江华祥海运有限 公司—从事沿海液化天然气 （LNG）运输业务。这两家公 司现在获准运营液化天然气船 舶，进入沿海液化天然气运输 行业开展业务。交通运输部表 示将在未来几年支持小型液化 天然气船的开发。

渤 海 轮 渡 正紧锣密 鼓地 筹 备 大规模扩张，力争成为一家实 力雄厚的国际邮轮运营商。它 在香港和天津均设有子公司， 还出价4 3 6 8万美 元购买歌 诗 达Voya ger 号邮轮。2 012年上 市的 渤 海 轮 渡 是 中国 最 大 的

Trucking consolidation Exclusive repair data SPRING 2013

亚 洲 最 大 班 轮公司 致 力于加 入CKYH联盟。总部位于台北 的长 荣 海 运声称，正与CKYH 联盟商讨加入事宜。CKYH联 盟目前成员有中远集运、川崎 汽船、阳明海运和韩进海运。 据 悉，中东航 运公司UA S C也 有望加入。2013年底，长荣宣 布将再租7艘14,0 0 0标准箱集 装箱船。

创建于20世纪70年代，身为台 湾500强企业的物流公司世邦 国际（TVL）努力扩大规模， 成立了专门的航运子公司。该 集团已购入两艘散货船和一只

小型客船，并从日本订购了一 艘1,100标准箱集装箱船，该船 将于2015年交付。此外，公司 成立一支集装箱支线船队的计 划也正在实施中。

2013年12月，中国航运公司 高管人事变动再起波澜。李 晓明卸任大新华物流控股（ 集团）有限公司首席执行官 并退出天津海运股份有限公司 董事会。李晓明曾是SinoShip 的封面人物，于1993年加入 海航集团，历任海航集团执 行副总裁、海南航空股份有 限公司董事长及金海重工股 份有限公司总裁。

去年底，中外运航运有限公司 明确表示将重返订购模式。公 司说到做到，在2014年最初 的几个月中，已斥资超过2.5 亿美元购买了10艘散货船， 其中两艘为巴拿马型船，八 艘为Ultramax型船。今年新购 船舶在未来几年陆续交付后， 公司由散货船、集装箱船和 一艘超大型油轮组成的混合 船队规模将更为庞大，达到 60余艘船。

t om ily s a s.c Da ate pnew d hi up nos i w.s ww

Eye on jack-up rigs

客滚船运营商，目前仅开通国 内航线。最近它又向山东黄海 造 船 有 限 公司购 买了 两 艘 滚 装船。

www.sinoshipnews.com

Wah Kwong

Sabrina Chao takes the chair

接触正确客户群体的机会 Project shippers focus on Africa Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism head speaks Hosco’s Gao Yangming: China’s scrapping champion E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

大中华区每一家主要船东和造船厂都在读这本杂志 关于2014年计划的媒体包已经可以在 www.asiashippingmedia.com查阅 广告咨询请联系 grant@asiashippingmedia.com

SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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船厂 ■ ■ ■

在过去的一年半时间里，澄西船舶修造有限公司是国内最成功的造船厂

43%

软硬兼施 驻京记者Li Deng Bai了解政府帮助国内船企重回正轨的举措 年 初，一 位资深船企管理 人 员就曾警告说，在这十年里的 大部分时间，国内造船厂产能 过剩的问题不太可能通过自我 调节解决。中国船舶工业行业 协会会长张广钦向地方媒体指 出，要消化中国造船业的剩余 产能“至少还需要五年”。 为此，二月中旬工业和信息 化部承 诺 将 采 取 更 强硬 的 措 施，削减行业冗余产能。 工信 部 副 部长毛 伟明在一 次新闻发布会上透露，在2017 年 以 前，政 府 将 不 再 批 准 钢 铁、水泥、电解铝、平板玻璃和 造船行业的新增项目，同时逐 步排除低于标准的现有项目。 毛伟明还指出，政府鼓励行 业并购，以淘汰落后产能。 2013年，中国造船业产量与 去年同期相比下降了24.7%。 好消息是船东对市场的看法转 好，新 造 船 价格上 升，订单总 量却激增了242%。2013年，中 国造船厂手持总订单量为1.31 亿 载 重 吨，比 去 年 同 期 增 长 22.5%。 今年初，工信部装备工业司

副司长李东指出，加强对造船 业的整顿意味着多家装备落后 的小型船企面临关闭。2010年 年初，船企数量从高峰时期的 3000家下降至1500家，政府还 计划在接下来的三年里，使船 企数量再削减一半。 过去四个月里，来自中央政 府对船厂的进一步补贴主要体 现在以下两点： 首先，现在国内船东从海外 购买船只需要支付进口关税和 增值税。

其次，政府为新的船舶报废 政策准备了46亿元人民币的备 用补助金。 该 政 策 指出，政 府 将 按 照 1500元/总吨的标准，对提前报 废老旧船并同时订购新船的船 运公司进行补助。 中国船企的最后希望来自它 们一直努力开拓的海工业务。 通过提供优厚的付款条件，中 国已迅速赶上传统海工强国韩 国和新加坡。 英国船务 经纪公司克 拉

去年国内造船厂所 有订单中海工订单比 重，与四年前的27% 相比实现增长 克 森（Cla rkson）提 供的数 据 显示，自从2 0 0 9年以来，中国 船 企 的 海 工合 同 额 一直 稳 步 增 长 ，年 平 均 增 长 率 达 2 0 % 。2013年签订的总合同金额达 到173亿美元。2013年船舶合 同总额再创新高，达 到173 亿 美 金。总体而 言，自2 011年以 来，国内船企在海工方面的投 资达到43%，而20 09-2010年 度该比例仅为27%。

不甘人后… 韩 国 船 企 能做到的，中国船企也可以。中国 船舶工业集团公司是经营中国南方船厂的大 型国有企业，其子公司中国船舶（香港）航运 租赁有限公司原先向上海江南长兴重工责任 有限公司订购了三艘16,0 0 0TEU集装箱船， 现将订单规格改为18 ,0 0 0 T EU，这也是隔黄 海相望的韩国目前能生产的最大集装箱船。 这批船最早是八月份订购的，计划于2015年年

中陆续交付后，租赁给法国达飞海运集团公司 （CMA CGM）。 江南长兴重工隶属上海外高桥造船有限公 司，也是中国船舶工业集团庞大帝国的一员。

SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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离岸 ■ ■ ■

惠生加勒比海FLNG项目进展顺利，为世界首个FLNG项目

领跑者 中国正快速赶上韩国，成为高规格基础设施订单的 强力争夺者。首席记者Katherine Si小议国内两家 领头企业 私 人 公 司 惠 生 海洋工 程 有 限公司（‘Wilson Offshore & Marine’，下称“惠生海工“）使 外国投资者越发亲睐海上工程 需求快速增长的中国。 惠生海工自2 0 0 6 年开始 运 营以来，一直致力于成为行业 内掌 握 西方 核心 技 术 的 领 头 企业。 2012年夏天，该公司向美国 BPZ能源公司交付了世界首个 浮力塔式钻井和生产平台。该 平台安装于秘鲁油田。这是中 国公司能够掌握并应用于国际 市场的全新技术，也预示着公 司的美好前景。 更 令人 印 象 深 刻 的 是 ，惠 生海工的全资子公司惠生（南 通）重工有限公司将负责建造 另一个世界首例项目。明年启 动的加勒比海FLNG项目将是 世界上首个投入运营的浮式天 然气液化 存 储 装 置（F L NG） 。该 设 备 由E x m a r 和 P a c i f i c Rubiales Energy（PRE）订购。 该艘非自航驳船，作业地点位 于哥伦比亚的海岸，每日可将 6,950万标准立方英尺天然气 转化为液态天然气，便于临时

储存或出口。上部装置采用了 美国博莱克威奇公司（Black & Veatch）开发的先进PRICO液

化天然气工艺专利技术，这是 该技术首次应用于浮式LNG装 置。加勒比海FLNG项目于2012 年底开始建造，目前正按计划 推进，并将于2015年第二季度 正式投入使用。 最近惠生海工又与Exmar和 PRE签订了一份提供驳船装载的 浮式LNG再气化装置的新合同， 增强了惠生海工作为中国海上工 程行业领先供应商的地位。 这是惠生海工在2 014 年获 得的第二个浮式LNG再气化装

置项目。今年1月份，惠生海工 与美国VGS公司也签署了提供 LNG再气化装置的协议，该装 置将被安装于印度的安德拉邦 海域。 惠 生海工 总 裁 L . D w ay n e Breaux对SinoShip说， “惠生海 工不只是 一家造船厂。我们愿 意深入进行研发，提供全面解 决方案。” Breaux说惠生海工将更专注 于FLNG，FPSOs（浮式生产储 油轮）和模块结构。

烟台中集来福士海洋工程有限公司 烟台中 集 来福士海洋工程有限公司，一般称 为中集来福士，是中国领先的海洋工程设备生 产商之一。中集来福士原先由新加坡的公司控 股，数年前被全球最大的集装箱生产商中国国 际海运集装箱（集团）股份有限公司（‘CIMC’ ， 下称”中集集团“）收至麾下。 今年年初，公司从Central Shipping Monaco获 得订单，建造2座JU2000E 自升式平台。此外， 公司还有4座平台的备选订单。 不到一星期后，公司又从挪威Norshore公司 获得了建造一艘多功能钻井船的订单，同时 拥有另外3艘钻井船的备选订单。对于船企来 说，钻井船订单是获利最丰厚的，单艘造价通 常超过5亿美元。目前该领域几乎完全被韩国 垄断。 这次中集来福士制造的是小型多功能钻井 船，适用于无隔水管的全球化作业环境，包括 北海海域。 此 外，中集 来福士 还从 B eacon Holding s

Group获得了建造一座适用于严酷环境的冰级 半潜式钻井平台的订单，进一步巩固了公司作 为国内顶级海上工程建造商的地位。 中集集团接手中集来福士后，设立了海上工 程研究机构并扩大了技术团队规模。此外，该 集团还收购了瑞典工程公司Bassoe Technology 90%的股份。Bassoe Technology公司在各类半潜 式平台、钻井船的前端概念、基础设计方面有 丰富的经验。

SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 金融

资金流向何处 Sam Chambers就2014年中国在船舶融资领域的地位征求专家意见 SinoShip发起的调查显示， 中国在国际船舶融资领域的地 位正变得前所未有地重要。挪 威威宝律师事务所（Wikborg Rein）的首席代表Geir Sviggum 说，在船 舶融资 领域，中国的 银行正填补欧洲同行留下的大 量空白。 “目前在全球市值最大的十 家银行中，有四家是中国的银 行。挪威及全球船舶和钻井平 台所有者是它们国际化进程的 主要目标，”他说。 Sviggum表示，对于西方人来 说，从中国融资在很大程度上“ 难以捉 摸”。西方人 还不太懂 得该如何与中国的银行达成交

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WWW.SINOSHIPNEWS.COM

目前在全球市值最大的十家银 行中，有四家是中国的银行 易，特别是在迫切需要重新谈 判之时不知道该如何与这些中 国银行协作。 一名驻上海的国外干散货船 企业的高级主管表示同意，他 说： “中国能给国际航运提供的 融资金额之大简直令人无法想 象，只是没人知道怎样才能获 得这些融资。” 2 0 0 9 年成 立的Spa r t a n Pa r t ne r s h ip 是 一家面向船 舶融资行业的人力资源公 司，其 创 始 人 兼 管 理 合 伙 人 Stathi Marneros表 示，中国是 目前 提 供船 舶融资的最热门 国 家 之一。但 是 中国 需 要 决 定是

维 持 保 守 的 现 状，还 是 走 向 国 际，实 现 其 船 舶 融 资 的 雄 心壮志。 中国的 银 行目前主 要 关 注 的还是以本国为中心的航运业 务， “市场环境仍不够透明”， Marneros评价说。中国的银行 受中央政府货币和信贷政策影 响非常大，并且它们仍然主要 是给中国船厂的新建船舶提供 信用和贷款支持。对于为二手 船舶市场提供双边贷款，它们 积极性不高。 Marneros提出： “亚洲的银 行，以及这些银行各自所属的 政府，需要决定到底要在国际 船 舶融 资 领 域 扮演什么样的 角色，” 他补充说： “如果亚洲银行 在 船 舶融 资方面仍 然保 持 这 种封闭的心 态，它们将不需 要 外 来 人 才。不 过，如 果它们走出国门，在 西方主要航运

城 市，比 如 伦敦、雅 典 、奥 斯 陆、汉堡和鹿特丹设立公司借 贷中心，就会清楚地表明它们 想要吸引技术和人才，为相关 地 区 提 供 信贷 并与 其 建 立良 好关系的意图。” 希腊人 B a sil K a r a z a s 认 为 ，亚 洲 一 直 都 是 有 声 誉 公司获得 债务融资的 好地 方。Basil Karazas目前掌管 以他自己 名 字 命 名的 纽 约 航 运经纪公司Karatzas Marine Adv is or s。他认为，亚洲银行 没有雷曼倒闭后遗症，因此资 金流动性不成问题。接着他又 强调 说 亚 洲 银 行 和 投资人 的 出资带有明显的“地域性”特 点，很少向西方公司和船东投 资或提供融资。 船舶融资领域的知名人 士，且在 佛 罗里 达 运 营 F i r s t International公司的Paul Slater 并不完全 认同这一说法。他坚 持 认为： “如果船东们都 在中 国造船，或是将船包租给中国 公司，那么从中国的银行获得 贷款并非难事。” 诺 顿罗氏律师事务所 （Norton Rose Fulbright）合 伙 人、船 舶 租 赁 界 著 名 人物 Harry Theochari指出，人们对 香港“点心债券”市场的热情 持续高涨。 T h e o c h a r i评论 说： “展 望 2014年以后的市场，我们可能 会发现曾主导航空融资领域的 商业 租 赁 模 式也 出现 在 航 运 业，尽管 形式 稍有不同。出口 信贷机构在创建安全债券市场 方面也会发挥一定作用。” 最 后，对 于 中国 企 业 最有 可能 从 哪 里 融 资 这一 问 题， 香港华光海运控股有限公 司（Wa h Kw o n g M a r i t i m e Transport）总裁Tim Huxley认 为，会有很多公司通过IPO上市 筹资。

商品 ■ ■ ■

没有一成不变的事情 Mark Downing报道中国水泥行业正经历的艰难时期

2.3bn

去年中国水泥需求量 达到23亿公吨，占全 球总消费量的58%， 人均消费量是世界平 均水平的3倍。

因为建筑、道路和港口等基础 设施都需要用到水泥，水泥产 业的规模非常大，年销售额高 达2,500亿美元。对于处于快速 发展阶段的经济体来说，作为“ 工业胶水”的水泥与石油及钢铁 一样，都是至关重要的商品。 目前中国雄居全球最大的水 泥生产国、消费国和出口国。十 年前，亚洲时报在线就曾预言， 中国水泥行业“是中国经济的缩 影：该行业科技含量低，发展速 度速快且污染环境，产能日益过 剩，终将走向衰退。”中国水泥 行业产能过剩已持续了一段时 间，中国政府实际上正在大力打 压曾为中国现代化建设奠定基 础的水泥行业的产能。 20世纪80年代，随着中国掀 起城市化和工业化热潮，政府 主导的大型基础设施项目和安 居项目将迅猛增长的水泥行业 推上了过度发展之路。当时建 成的窑炉不可计数，而中国也 很快成为世界最大的水泥生产 国，有五家水泥企业位居全球

十大水泥公司之列。 截至2010年，中国水泥消费 量占全球总需求量的55%，是美 国消费量的25倍。 去年中国的 水泥需求总量预计为23亿吨， 占全球总消费量的58%，比2010 年有所上升。去年水泥人均消费 量是世界平均水平的3倍。 近期水泥需求减少可能是利 率上升和信贷紧缩造成的。此

价格和盈利能力。主要工厂已削 减产能，其他工厂则长期停产。 中央政府可能还将出台力度 更大的产能控制措施，包括限 制工厂扩张和实施更为严格的 环境监管法规，从而进一步缓 解水泥行业的困境。 2013年，中央政府的一项核 心的 经 济 举 措 是 削 减 水 泥、 钢铁和煤炭等高污染重工业的

深受雾霾困扰的北京市已采取措 施，削减水泥、钢铁和煤炭等高污 染重工业的产能。 外，背负了3万亿美元债务的省 级和地方政府，正遵照中央的 指示，查处贪污腐化和减少铺 张浪费。不少人预测，中国水泥 需求量在这个十年内会达到峰 值，之后人均消费量会逐渐回 落世界平均水平。 产能过剩严重，竞争激烈，使 用率低下，这些因素压低了水泥

产能。水泥行业排放的颗粒物 大约占国内颗粒物排放总量的 五分之一，同时，水泥行业的排 放物还包括氮氧化物和二氧化 硫。落后、低效和破坏环境的工 厂正被关停，由政府通过补偿 计划、优惠政策和税收减免进 行补贴。 通 过 海 运 进出口固然 能 抵

销产能过剩或弥补产能不足， 但水泥并非适合运输的商品。 水泥占地面积大且价格低，更 适合在本地进行生产和消费。 国内生产的水泥只有约4%销往 国外，大体上三分之 二是通过 海运，通常采用灵便型散货船 和大灵便型散货船进行运输。 然 而，海 上 水 泥 贸 易 却 因 为 缺 少 合 适 的 货船而得 不 到 发 展 。英 国 豪 罗 宾 逊 船 务 经 纪有限公司( Howe Robi n s on Shipbrokers)表示，目前仅有300 只船可用于水泥运输，新船正 在订购中，同时，普通散货船正 被改装成水泥运输专用船。 2007年是水泥贸易高峰期， 交易量达到了1.6亿吨。现在水 泥贸易正从雷曼兄弟事件后的 经济低迷中复苏。东北亚地区 是目前世界最大的水泥出口地 区，主要出口到中国香港、新加 坡、斯里 兰卡、马来西亚和孟 加拉。2012年，中国出口水泥近 1700万吨，只是其产能微不足 道的一部分，而与2006年出口 3600万吨相比还有所下降。部 分原因是由于中国逐步淘汰了 小规模、低效率的工厂并取消 了水泥出口补贴。 随着中央政府削减基础设施 投资，中国经济发展放缓，水泥 生产商或许应该放眼海外求生 存，甚至将公司迁到国外。中国 工信部正考虑成立投资基金， 鼓励象水泥这样的重工业将剩 余产能转移到国外。亚洲金融 危机后，工信部也采取了类似 的应对措施。 中国的水泥 厂 商 正饱 受 煎 熬。水泥厂商要参与竞争，实现 盈利，与此同时，中央政府在通 过压缩产能控制水泥供需，并 逐步削减基础设施投资。 SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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物流 ■ ■ ■

致命包裹阴影笼罩中国供应链 Jason Jiang详述国内危险品物流行业的配套基础设施建设尚显薄弱 近来，中国最大的快递公司之 一圆通速递陷入舆论风暴的中 心。此前该公司递送的致命包 裹造成1人死亡，9人致病。 此包裹含有名为氟乙酸甲酯 的毒素样品，由圆通速递的加 盟商沙洋运通物流有限公司送 往山东某制药公司。寄件人是 湖北某化 工厂，其声称包 裹内 物品无害。运输过程中包裹泄 漏，并污染了其它包 裹。接触 过包裹的数名收件人和快递人 员中毒。目前警方仍在调查该 案件。 圆通速递已发布公告，向受 害者及其家属表示歉意。公司 声称不会逃避责任，正积极配 合警方的调查。 这一 事 件 在中国 快 递 业可 谓一石激起千层浪。得益于电 子商务的蓬勃发展，快递行业 已成 为国内 增 长 最 快 的 行业 之一。 山东邮政局稍后宣布，已吊 销沙洋运通物流有限公司的营 业执照。中国邮政部门也发出 紧急通知，要求加强对日常配 送的检查。 近 年 来 ，中 国 各大 快 递 公 司的业务量增速惊人。而快速 增长的背后，却暴露出快递公 司 疲 于应付 急 速 增 长 的 包 裹 量，忽略了管理和培训的重要 作用。 中国快递物流咨询网首席顾 问徐勇表示， “中国快递业的特 点是缺乏有效管理，特许经营 门槛低。公司应减少特许经营

业务，这样才能加强对地方分 支机构的监督以及对员工的专 业培训。” 徐勇认为长期来看，此类监 管并不足以阻止类似事件继续 发生。 “不能仅仅指责快 递公 司检查包裹不够谨慎，这其实 是危险品供应链的一个严重问 题。”他说。

他解释说，许多行业的重要 原材料都是危险化学品。目前 这些危险货物仅限整车运输。

对于少量危险品或样品，现在 还没有专业的物流服务。整车 运输成本很高，为了节省开支， 许多化学品厂商铤而走险，采 用快递送货。徐勇进一步补充 说，除非政府和相关行业协会 迅速应对这种现状，否则类似 事件会再次发生。 广州市危险货物运输行业协 会的一名官员介绍说，危险货 物的最低运输量通常为一吨， 专业的危险品物流公司需要不 同的许可证来运输不同种类的 危险品，这使运输少量危险品 变得更为困难。 江苏金陵交运集团有限公司 旗下有一家化学品物流子公司 和超过100辆危险品运输车。自 2007 年以来，金陵集团已推出 零担货物运输业务。该公司经 理李云说，化学品零担运输在 国内基本是空白。迄今为止，公 司仅对江苏省内一些邻近城市 提供该项服务，但现在该公司 计划逐步建立覆盖长江三角洲 地区的化学品零担运输网络。 李云建议说， “有关政府机 构应该就化学品零担运输解决 方案提供更多指导。比如，可以 选择一些企业作为试点运营， 以进行市场调研，从而确立相 关标准。”

公司应减少特许经营业务，这样 才能加强对地方分支机构的监督以 及对员工的专业培训 SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 人物专访

崛起中的仁建集团 Jason Jiang前往福建，会见中国最大的私营沿海集装箱航运公司的 年轻掌舵人。

仁

建 集 团 位于福 建 省泉 州市, 是一家主营业务涵盖“陆地 物 流、航 运、仓 储、冷 链和 贸易”的综合物流服务供应 商。仁建集团不但拥有国内私营沿海集装 箱航运业容量最大的集装箱船队，亦开拓 了首条海外航线，另有数条潜在航线。目 前，仁建集团旗下有70多艘集装箱船，总载 重吨数达85万吨。 郭东圣，36岁，任仁建集团总裁暨泉州 集 装箱协 会会 长。他 生于福 建一 个小 渔 村，2002年，郭东圣与哥哥一起成立了安 盛船务有限公司，当时使用的是他们的父 亲—一名经验丰富的老船员—留下的一 艘旧船。第二年，兄弟俩又成立了安通物流 有限公司。2005年，他们在香港注册成立

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了以父亲名字命名的仁建集团，并把安盛 船务和安通物流纳入旗下。 “ 安 盛 船 务和 安 通 物 流 是 集 团的 基

化危机为转机，才 是我们在当前大环境 下的出路 石，”郭东圣说。 通过整合航运和物流部门，仁建集团投 入运营的运输工具达4,500余台，仓储用地 超过35万平方米，有能力为客户提供门到 门的物流服务。 “多式 联 运非常有竞 争力。我们未来

将加强与货车运输、仓储和铁路运输的合 作，大幅提升在国内的覆盖率，”郭东圣 说。与此同时，公司更积极参与项目咨询和 资本投资，力争成为国内最好的物流供应 商。 作为船 运公司的老板，郭东圣虽然年 龄不大，却是一位精明过人的决策者。他 认为成本结 构是决定公司运营成 败的关 键。 “要改变成本结构，首要是改变运输模 式，” 郭东圣指出。 2 0 0 4 年，他和哥 哥做出了一 个重大决 定：出售所有散货船，转而购买集装箱船。 正是这个决定成就了公司今日之辉煌。 “航运业危机的影响还未消散，如果我 们只是被动等待市场好转，已建成的运输 网络可能逐渐削弱，化危机为转机，才是我 们在当前大环境下的出路。我们一直在扩 展国内运输网络和开拓新的路线。在经济 繁荣时期领导企业是很不易的,”郭东圣说, 他又补充说经济衰退时的投资回报率可能 翻一番。 作为新一轮扩充船队 规 模的举动，仁 建集团于2013年第四季度向泰州三福船舶 工程有限公司订购了10艘2400TEU集装箱 船，总投资额达20亿元人民币。 “我们是对 国内航运市场进行缜密分析后才决定购买 的，这些高科技船舶将使油耗减少30%， 能更好地满足港口和经营需求，”郭东圣 强调说。 2013年12月，仁建集团开通了从海口到 越南胡志明市的首条外贸航线。仁建还计 划在接下来的五年内向海南岛海口市投资 30亿元人民币，用以拓展集团在该地区的 业务。其中包括斥资8.6亿元设立地区运营 总部。去年安通物流在海口港的年吞吐量 达450,000TEU，占该港口集装箱年吞吐量 的44%左右。 “海口是通往北部湾和东盟的门户，我 们在海口港的总吞吐量将每年提高30%， 不少新船也将在该港口登记使用。”郭东 圣说。

仁建集团 中国 最 大 的 私营 沿 海 集 装 箱 航运公司，领头人是来自福建 的郭氏兄弟。公司拥有70艘船 舶，另有10艘待交付。公司已开 始运营国际航线。

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海工医生 编辑Sam Chambers与中国海工市场上最谨慎的人之一邬卫华小叙

在

中国海工市场的舞台中，比 邬卫华更了解这个市场的人 不多。 邬 卫华 踏 上顶 级 海 工 市 场的路径并不明显。他早先是一名在重庆 受 过培训的神经 外科医生。之后在奥斯 陆的挪威国家医院工作了将近五年，研究 脑外伤。 在挪威度过的日子被证明是非常宝贵 的。他向SinoShip回忆他是如何在1995年回 到中国并了解到挪威在海工，海鲜，油气以 及航运业的优势。 一家渡轮公司的前任CEO与他联系让他 协助引进一艘双体船到中国。值得注意的 是，邬卫华设法成功的取得了从宁波经营 国内渡轮的许可证。 “这是个极大的惊喜， 由于那时候渡轮合同一般只会给国内公司 而不是国外公司，”邬卫华回忆说。他在航 运业以及海工行业的日子这才刚刚开始。 在1998年底，邬卫华被通过猎头被IM Skaugen招致麾下。他从宁波迁到上海，并 在这家斯堪的纳维亚公司工作了七年半的 时间，在这段日子里，他主导了多项创举， 包 括 长江 上首次 液化 石油气出货，建 立 武汉的培训中心，在沪东中华的乙烯船订 单，以及努力使进出口银行不仅为船厂，并 且为船东提供买方信贷。 邬卫华带领进出口银行的员工来到奥斯 陆，向他们展示挪威银行的经营方式，为这 家国有银行的观念极大改变铺平了道路。 在2007年底，作为IM Skaugen的区域总经 理，邬卫华手下领导1500个员工，他很疲惫。 一家挪威海工承包商Grenland集团（现 改名为Agility）联系到了他，并聘他为亚洲 区域的主管。Grenland参与了许多个中国半 潜船的订单。 澜玛控股有限公司是邬卫华的投资公 司，主要有三条产业链。最首要的，该公司 与招商局集团以及其他投资人共同参与了 一系列烟台莱佛士订造的半潜船订单，包 括两份确定订单以及三份选择订单。 邬卫华的优势在于他帮助国内公司和国 际公司牵线搭桥。在这方面，他提供的另一 项服务是作为出售和回租的财务顾问。他 代表船东与国有租赁公司商谈业务。 “所有的中国财务机构都看好在海工行 业的租赁业务，”他说道，并补充： “越来越 多的钱将被提供到这个行业。” 他的投资公司另一项有趣的业务是他与 挪威公司共同投资的一个全新的液化天然 气安全壳系统。 在一月份该LNT A-Box系统已经在厦 门船舶重工完成了测试。该技术包括一个

IMO标准的放置在绝缘空间里的独立A型 储气罐。 M o s s 球 形膜 系 统 的 液化 天 然气的 储 罐已经存在了几十年。 “我们的想法,”邬 卫华 说，“是 使 建 造液化 天 然气 船 更容 易以及更有 效率，使每 一 个 船厂都 有能 力建造。” 这个概念与液化石油气储罐类似，不同 的是温度会低100多度。 不锈 钢的储 罐更容易被 检查内外。此 外，该系统可用于FLNG以及FSRU，它平面 的形状吸引了大量的关注。 邬卫华经营的另一个领域是作为去年十 月成立的奥斯陆的新航运银行Maritime & Merchant的投资人以及董事会成员，该银 行致力于为中小型航运公司提供融资。 “该利基市场有需求。我们是第一个参 与进来的，”邬卫华说。Landmark Holdings 在该银行有18.75%的股份，其他的股 东 包括欧 洲航 运业的重量 级 人物Hen nin g Oldendorff 和 Arne Blystad. 邬卫华在中国的有声有色的海工市场已 经打拼了16年。这离他作为神经外科医生

的日子已经很远，但在医学界的日子使他占 得先机。 “作为一名医生，你被训练过不用触摸 以及问题来观察病人。我们还有心理方面的 培训，这些都对做生意有益，”他总结说。

澜玛控股有限公司 由海工业 老 将邬卫华 执 掌， 邬卫华 是 一 位半 潜 船 投资 人，为 寻 找 中国 融 资 的国 际 船 东 做 财 务 顾 问，参 与了全 新的 液化 天然气 安 全 壳系 统，并 担任 新 的奥 斯 陆 银 行 Maritime & Merchant的董事 会成员。

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中国首家LNG船舶管理公司 SinoShip采访中国液化天然气船务（国际）有限公司总经理Paul Oliver

中

国液化天然气船务（国际）有 限公司(CL SICO)是 一家位于 香港的LNG船舶管理公司，职 能是管理向中国进口LNG的船 舶。公司作为中国首个LNG进口项目的一部 分而成立，向位于广东省的新接收终端大 鹏湾进口LNG。公司成立于2004年4月，由 中远集团，招商局集团和经验丰富的LNG 船舶运营企业BP Shipping联合成立。 作 为 中国 和 外 国 企 业 进 一 步 合 作 的 体 现，公司管 理 的船 舶 都由上海沪东中 华 船厂 建 造，船 舶 设 计来源于法国公司 Chantiers de l’Atlantique，建造监管服务由 Shell提供。从一开始，公司的船舶就配有中 国和西方船员， 从最初开始，CLSICO管理的船队已经增 长到六艘，有三艘为大鹏LNG接收终端服 务，两艘为福建LNG接收终端服务，一艘为 上海LNG接收终端服务。这六艘147,000立 方米运力的姊妹船，配有薄膜围护系统和 蒸汽推进。 2013年7月，BP Shipping选择从CLSICO

退 出，将 其 股 份出售给了中国 海洋 石油 (CNOOC)。 “尽管BP Shipping退出了，CLSICO的团 队，无论是办公室还是船上，仍将由中国和 西方员工组成。”CLSICO总经理Paul Oliver 告诉SinoShip.

Oliver强调CLSICO目前仅专注于中国相 关的业务，并没有向外扩张的计划。 “CLSICO的职能是为中国项目服务。我 们不会成立也不打算争取和中国无关的项 目。”他表示。 谈 到 L N G 运输船的费率 时，Ol ive r 表 示： “随着大量新运力的交付，航次租船的 价格在今年似乎比平时更低一些，但这种 状况会持续多久还不得而知。” 这 些 新 船 中的 大 多 数 最 终 将 投 入 新 的项目，Oliver说，并解释道，对于接收终 端项目来说，交船按时而项目延期是正常 的，这会导致短期内的运力过剩。 说 到中国大 型L NG 运输船的建 造，上 海沪东中华船厂仍然处于垄断地位，但是 Oliver认为其他船厂，比如大船重工，南通

航次租船的价格在今年似乎比平时更低一些 18

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中远川崎也有能力建造这种价格昂贵的船 舶。他们和其他船厂面对的仅仅只是沪东 中华有这样的建造历史。 “LNG船东倾向于高风险规避，所以这 是个很难进入的市场，”Oliver表示，并补 充道： “但是还是有很多业务流动，所以在 未来几年对出现第二家可以建造LNG船的 中国船厂我不会感到惊讶。”

CLSICO 位于香港的中国液化天然气船 务（国际）有限公司(CLSICO) 是中国首家 L NG 船 舶管理公 司,成立于10年前。目前股东有 中远，中海和中海油。船队由 六艘薄膜型147,000立方米船 组成。

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搜寻业务 由于母公司振华重工的业务增长变慢，振华船运已经在寻找第三方业务

振

华船运的业务过去可谓是一 帆风顺。任何人在正在开发 中的集装箱码头附近呆的足 够久都能看见装载着巨型吊 车的振华船只。 振华船运是世界领先的港机制造商上 海振 华重工的子公司，在19 9 5 年成 立之 后，该公司的航运业务跟随着过去十年中 全世界集装箱码头数量共同呈指数级增 长。然而，盛世增长的好日子已经成为过 去，意味着振华船运不得不转型并且向第 三方提供半潜船和大型浮吊业务。 然而，在过去的两年里，由于传统港口

机械订单量急剧下降，振华重工在经历数 年巨亏之后，到2013年才勉强扭亏为盈。 受母公司业务波动影响，原本以内部业 务为主的振华船运被迫进行调整。 振华船运总经理陈斌说： “长期以来， 我们没有太多考虑转型的问题，但在目前 市场大环境低迷的状况下，我们必须走向 市场，加入竞争。” 陈斌指出： “为了进入新的市场，满足新 的需求，船队的结构和规模都需要调整。 提高船队运力势在必行，但新增运力必须 和市场需求有效匹配。公司将用三年时间 调整船队结构，进一步提高运营水平。”

陈斌补充说： “工程货物运输业务仍有 盈利空间。未来我们将保持相对稳定的发 展态势，进一步增强我们的优势，从而提高 市场竞争力。目前我们还处于积累阶段，迫 切需要找到切入点。” 振华船运的船队目前有23艘船。其客户 不乏业界大名鼎鼎的企业，如和记黄埔、 现代重工、斗山重工、三菱重工和烟台莱佛 士船业(Yantai Raffles)。

振华船运 19年前成立，是全球最大 的港机制造商振华重工的 子公司，船队目前有23艘 船，主要由半潜船和浮吊 船组成。

新运力必须和市场需求有效匹配 SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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Posidonia 2014 2-6 June 2014

Metropolitan Expo , Athens Greece

it's a great deal The International Shipping Exhibition

Organisers: Posidonia Exhibitions SA, e-mail: posidonia@posidonia-events.com

www.posidonia-events.com

散杂货 ■ ■ ■

来自海外的希望 国内重型机械制造商正面临产能过剩的问题。北京鼓励这些制造商加大出口，这对于本地船运公司是利好 消息。Jason Jiang报道。

由

于传统散货和集装箱业务依 旧不景气，散杂货业务现已成 为航 运 业 为数不多的几个收 入增长点。由于全球基础设施 项目不断增加，并且中国也开始位居全球 领先的工程设备生产国之列，国内涉足散 杂货业务的船运公司为了能够跟上市场需 求的变化，已经开始了新一轮的船队结构 调整。 此 外，中央政 府 也 正 施以援 手。2 013 年 年末，国务院 颁布了针对多 个行业的 指导意见。这些 饱受产能 过 剩困扰的 行 业中就包括重型工程机 械 行业。国务院

鼓励业内公司扩大出口，通过这一重大战 略举 措来解决产能过 剩问题。政 府不久 还将出台具体的优惠政策。

在非洲和拉美等新兴 市场，基础设施建设 项目依旧活跃 2013年初，中远航运股份有限公司为 整合其特种船舶运输业务，从母公司中国

远洋运输（集团）总公司收购了广州远洋 运输有限公司，并在同年年末向广州中船 黄埔造船有限公司订购了4艘36,000载重 吨多用途 货船。订单总值 达8 . 9 4 亿 人民 币。去年早些时候，中远航运也曾向南通 中远川崎船舶工程有限公司( NACK S)订 购了4艘类似的货船。 中远 航 运一 位高级项目经 理 说： “受 干散 货市场 萧条 影响，今 年 我们的多用 途船 运 业务疲软。由于非洲禁止木 材出 口，木 材运输业 务量也 处于 较低 水平。 不过，我们在调整船队结构方面取得了一 些进展，同时，重吊船和半潜船业务也有 SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 专题

对新兴国家的出口额 不断上升 所起色。” 该 项目经 理 认 为： “新 一届政 府已 经 承 诺 进 一 步 调 整 经 济 结 构，同 时 非 洲 和 拉丁 美 洲 等 新 兴 经 济 体 的 基 础 设 施 建 设方兴未艾。全 球风能 设备的增长趋 势，加 上国内近 海设备 制 造能 力提 升， 这些对于 特 殊 工程货物运输业务都是 利好消息。” 中国对外承包 工程商会指出，过去两 年间，由于全球经济衰退，中国对外承包 工 程 量 增速 放 缓，不过目前形势已有所 好转，预计在未来两年里每年中国对外承 包 工程量将稳步保 持10 %左右的年增长 速度。

该 项目 经 理 补 充 说 ，“ 2 0 1 4 年 工 程 货 物 运 输 市 场 有 望 回 暖 。目 前 多 用 途 船 队 业 务 占 我 们 总 收 入 的 6 0 % ，该 业 务对 于 增 加 我 们的 利 润 是 非常 关 键 的。我们的 策 略之一 是与更 多货主 签订 合 作 协议。” 二月份，中远 航 运与荷兰石油巨头 壳 牌 集团签署了合 作 协议。中远 航 运 顺 利 通过了壳牌的QHSE审核，正式成为这家 能源巨头重件 货物的运输供 应 商。中远 航 运 表 示，签署该协议具 有里程碑式的 重 大 意义，标志 着公司向全 球特 种货物 运输市场的扩张取得新突破。当月，公司 还与中国核工业集团公司(CN NC)签署了 类似协议。中核 集团在 海外有许多核基 础 设 施 项目。中远 航 运宣 布公司去年 净 利润为3 ,149万人民币，比去年同期增长 147.42%

破纪录的铁路之旅 中国内陆地区越来越希望通过铁路采购欧 洲建筑设备，同时铁路建造进程正在加快。 随着在波兰白俄罗斯边境的布雷斯特 和中蒙边境的二连浩特之间的中转只花 了九天时间，瑞士的铁路货运服务提供 商InterRail集团，在二月为沿着连接中国 和欧洲的宽轨铁路运输设定了突破性的 标准。该行程总距离8000公里，每天运行 速度达到了破纪录的900公里。 列车上装载的是41个高立方40英尺集 装箱，主要货物是为中国内地基础设施建

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设运送的钢铁设备。 2012年以来，InterRail集团加强了其在 欧洲和中国之间经营集装箱班列的承诺 和活动。该集团与中国内地经济不断增 长的城市群的地方政府合作，如成都，武 汉，郑州，并且和中国铁路公司及其附属 公司达成合作关系。 “随着来往中国的业务增长，我们将 继续依托在独联体国家和蒙古的强大的 业务伙伴，并结合在中国，西欧和中欧的 国家的客户联系”，InterRail集团首席执

中波轮船再次订购新船 二月份，重件 货 物 运输公司中 波 轮 船股 份公司(C h ip olb r o k )重 返 新 造 船市场， 向江 苏 新扬 子 造 船 有 限 公司订 购了4 艘 3 6 ,0 0 0 载 重吨 重件专用船，预计分别于 2 015年和2 016 年交付。去年中波轮船已 经 先 向上 海 船厂船 舶 有 限 公司订 购了4 艘32 ,0 0 0载重吨船舶，交付期也是2 015 年和2016年。 中波轮船副总经理李一平表示： “目前 中国与欧 美等发达国家 之间的重件货运 输业务有所下降，但中国对新兴国家的出 口额却不断上升，这对于中波轮船来说是 个机遇。”他补充说中波轮船不会放弃传 统路线，但会通过在新兴市场增设更多停 泊港来提高运货量。最近该公司在加勒比 海地区、墨西哥和东地中海地区新增了停 泊港。

行官Howard Lamb。 “比 空 运 便 宜，比 海 运 更快 的可 靠 运输服务有很大的市场需求，因此我们 在扩张的我们的铁 路货运业务组合，” Lamb解释说。 对于实现欧亚铁路货运产品的一个决 定性标准是，两个方向的集装箱流的平 衡，Lamb强调说。 “在这方面，我们还需 要更多的创新。传统上，东行货物被视为 回程贸易，”Lamb指出他在布雷斯特以及 中国西部边境枢纽看到了可靠服务的潜 力。 “这可能会加强东行的交通流量，并 保证集装箱的成本效益和往返利用率。”

散杂货 ■ ■ ■

港口建设 据Jason Jiang观察，长江三角洲地区工程泊位有所增加

上

海 南 汇 港 是 位于 杭 州 湾 北 岸的 散 杂 货 及 滚 装 货 新 港 口，已于 2 0 1 3 年 下 半 年 开 业。港口有九个泊位，设 计 年吞吐量为250万载重吨，主要服务于上 海临港工业区的重型设备制造商和汽车 制造商。 上海临港经济发展（集团）有限公司副 总裁朱伟强表示： “南汇港的开通，将为上 海临港工业区的公司大幅节约物流成本和 提高物流效率，并帮助它们更好地满足国 际市场需求。” 身为中国重型机械制造业龙头老大和 世界最大的建筑设备生产商的徐工集团， 目前正在临港工业区建设它旗下第二大生 产研发基地，投资额高达10 0 亿人民币。 该基地主要生产出口导向型高端机械和部 件，等今年晚些时候第一期工程完工后， 每年可生产20,000台大中型挖掘机。公司

不久后还会把业务拓展至港口机械和海上 设备领域。 徐工集团董事长王民说： “临港项目将 成为徐工集团新产品研发和海外业务拓展 的重要基地。”

中国内陆良好的发展 前景吸引了大批海外 投资商 除了海上散杂货运输，中国内河散杂货 船运需求也在不断增加。长江三角洲地区 的许多港口最近增加了散杂货泊位。中国 内陆发展的良好前景也吸引了大批海外投 资商。 二月份，新加坡泛联集团(Singapore’s

P a n -Un it e d C o r p o r a t io n) 通 过 其 控 股 8 5 . 5%的旗下子公司常熟 兴华 港口有限 公司(CXP)斥资4.365亿人民币，收购了经 营多功能港口的常熟长江港 务有限公司 (CCIP)90%的股份。本次收购的港口与兴 华 港毗邻。该 港口已获准向外 籍 船 舶开 放一个30,000载重吨泊位和两个3,000载 重吨泊位。 该集团首席执行官May Ng表示： “通 过收购，我们能够为客户提供的设施显著 增强，并且处理国内货物的能力也大幅增 加。通过扩大港口业务，我们可以实现商 业及营运协同效益并提升效率。从中期来 看，我们有信心提高港口收益，为股东创造 更大价值。 凭借我们旗下 两处多功能港口，我们 希望扩大市场份额，增强我们作为主要物 流枢 纽，服务于 长江沿岸工业 腹 地的地 位。” 目前，在中国前十大内河港口中，常熟兴 华港是国内纸浆、原木和成品钢产品运输 的枢纽。截止2013年9月份，兴华港处理了 16%中国进口的纸浆和18％从新西兰进口 的原木。 泛联集团携手另一家新加坡公司裕廊 港(Jurong Port)，合作投资中国的散杂货运 输港口。 SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 专题

难以为继 中国修船价格已经接近历史新低 Katherine Si记录这个备受挤压的领域日益凋零的命运

中

国不规则发展的修 船行业逐 渐显现出南北地域分化，北方 似乎面临产能过剩，而南方相 对较好。 目前，北方有六家主要的修船企业，位 于大连，山海关，天津和青岛。而大船重工

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还有大型新设施即将投入运营。该地区整 体的修船产能预计超过南方。 修 船业务在 过去四年一直很低 迷，产 能过剩已经悄然显现，这在中国北方尤为 明显。 船东愿意在南方修船因为那里的船厂

离主要的贸易航线更近，而且不用像北方 那样遭遇寒冬。南方船厂有更多国际船东 客户，而北方的船厂大多接受的是当地船 东的订单，这也造成了更严峻的低价竞争 环境，中国修船技术学术委员会副秘书长 李玉斌认为。

修船 ■ ■ ■

中国北方产能过剩问 题更严重 价格战 中国修船厂的问题是低价已经徘徊了太久 而价格还在进一步下降。 2013年上半年，15家中国最大修船厂共 修理了1733条船，同比下降0.17%。然而， 这一时期的修船产值仅有51.3亿元，同比下 降16.7%。 低迷的运价意味着船东在修理和保养 其船只时不愿意花费太多。这导致了修船 价格几乎达到新低，许多船厂因为接了太 多赔本的工作而站在破产边缘。 “目前，结 构性产能 过 剩引起了国内 修 船市场的激 烈 竞 争。少 量的订单使得 修 船业务处在低 迷阶段。价格战 成 为目 前船厂获得订单的主要手段。”一位来自 中国领先修船企业，中海工业的负责人对 SinoShip表示。 “在几年的低价竞争中，一些修船企业 的财政状况很差。”王克武，中船澄西远航 船舶(广州)的副总经理表示。王克武认为 价格已经不能再低了。 在SinoShip就这篇报道联系的船厂中， 大多数认为2013年比2012年的形势还要 差，价格战如果持续更长时间会导致大量 企业的破产。 严承祥，中远船务副总经理，建议国内 修船厂联手合作建立更好的价格体系， 在有大规模损失出现前作为一个整体保 护行业。 一些船厂希望政府或国家船舶行业协 会能够将船厂联合在一起，对信誉很差和 继续进行过度竞争的企业给予惩罚，并将 不能按时付款的船东列入黑名单。

拆船获补贴

随着最近 对国内钢铁行业的调整，中 国北方对煤炭和铁矿石的需求也有所下 降，这 给 北方的修 船厂带来了进 一步的 压力。 在中国东部，围绕上海和长江流域，有 11家主要的修船企业，产能约为260万载重 吨。这里也存在产能过剩的问题，据称有 许多空当。 从这里往南是中国最主要的修船中心

中央为拆船提供补 贴，对修船者来说是个 坏消息

之一，舟山群岛，这里业务繁忙，空闲的产 能不多。 再往南走，包括厦门中远船务，泰山石 化泉州船厂在内的福建地区修船厂，似乎 只接受低附 加值的订单。福建船厂的管 理，基础设施和技术似乎与中国领先的船 厂相比有很大差距，它们更多是在做简单 的工作，修理更小些的船。不管怎样，随着 厦门正努力发展为一个真正的航运中心， 这里的船厂也算繁忙，福建省的船厂有机 会蓬勃发展。 广 东，同 样，也是许 多 高端 修 船厂的 家园，这 里的修 船业有大 量 来自国外的 支持。

另一方面，政府发布了一系列政策支持 拆解老旧船舶，此举旨在帮助造船企业。 船东目前可以从拆船而不是修船中获得补 贴，这给中国备受挤压的修船企业带来了 更多的压力。 在这困难的环境下，许多修船厂在寻求 新的方向，一些将目光放在了新兴的海工 领域。 船舶改装或是游艇、邮轮的修理或许也 是挣扎中修船厂的一个新方向。 船 舶 改 装也是 条出路。例 如，中远 船 务，中国领先的修船厂之一，去年得以保持 良好的财政状况在很大程度上取决于改装 工作。 中远船务 去年进 行了三 艘 F P S O的改 装，并在海工修理领域取得很大进展。 另一种业务来源是航运公司正在寻找 降低 燃油费用的 方 法，即改变船 艏的形 状。中国已经成为这一船舶“整形”的中 心。以马士基和达飞为首的集装箱航运公 司已经成为船舶隆鼻热潮中的先锋。 SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 枢纽：上海

不详的预感 中国的证券交易所已经收紧政策，中国本土船运公司短期内上市的可能性不大 在暂停 新 股上市一年之后，上 海证券交易所（SSE）于2013年 12月底恢复IPO。投资者争先恐 后地买入新上市公司的股票，导 致恢复IPO后第一个交易日的 新股价格大涨。之前由于中国 证券交易所陷入困境，证券监 管当局实施了多项保护投资者 的措施，旨在提振投资者对上 市公司基本面的信心。 评论员认为这些措施将有助 于促进中国企业积极上市，而且 实际的上市需求非常火爆,已经有 数百家公司排队等候上市融资。 尽管如此，到今年1月底，有 望在上海证券交易所或深圳证 券交易所上市的公司名单中却 没有船运公司的身影。 兴 业 证 券 股 份有 限 公司的 船运证券分析师Ji Yuntao介绍 说： “当然，船运公司肯定很想 上市融资，眼下资本市场的现金 流不容乐观，股市资金流失严 重。不过，眼下船运公司无法上 市，因为它们达不到上市所要求 的盈利水平。” 虽然私营船运公司短期内上 市的可能性不大，但是国有船运 企业可能会上市。 华 泰 证券的一 位分析师表 示： “政府出于政策原因，可能 会鼓 励国有船 运公司上市，不 过，在未来两年当中，市场仍将 低迷，私营船运企业不大可能有 机会上市融资。” 今年一月份在上海上市的公 司中，绝大多数公司的股价涨幅 都达到中国新证券交易规则的 上限44%，然而同期主要船运公 司的股价都创下历史新低。 中 远 集 团（C o s c o）的 股 价 跌 至 去 年 8月份 以 来 的 最 低 点，中 海 集 装 箱 运 输 股 份 有限公司（China Shipping Container Lines）的股价创下 四个月来的新低，而中海发展 26

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公 开募股（I P O）价格的新规， 规 定 该 价 格 不 得 比 同 行 业平 均价格高出太多，否则有关 公 司上市将延迟三个星期，其间 股份有限公司（China Shipping 集团亏损，因此经受不起2013 向公众发布风险警告。不仅如 Development）的股价也降至去 年或者其他时候被退市的风险。 此，证监会近期还宣布对承销 该公司宣称自己可以靠出售资产 商和机构投资者的定价行为进 年11月以来的低点。 分析师Ji Yuntao认为： “虽然 来赢利，大家都知道目前它根 行调查。 华 泰 证券 的 这位 分析 师表 上海证券交易所近期交易火爆， 本不赚钱，所以谁都不会去买 示： “对于证券监管部门来说， 但是不会惠及船运行业的基本 它的股票。 “ 中 国 海 运 集 团（C h i n a 此举的目的不仅是为了提高投 面。因此，即便投资者希望买卖 新上市公司股 票获得收益，即 Shipping）也不例外，大家都知 资者信心，还为了使市场在IPO 上市过程中拥有更大的话语权。 便其他公司的股票都上涨并因 道该公司去年亏损。” 随着一连串更严格股市规则 股票市场未来将日趋完善。例 此提振投资者对上市公司的信 心，大家还是明白船 运市场仍 相继推出实施之后，业绩不佳的 如，股票市场将更加透明公开， 船运公司要想吸引投资者，就需 这将促进交易量增长。” 然低迷。” “这 样，投资 者就 能 够专注 上市公司要使自身财务状况 要先让他们看到真的有利可图。 最近，中国证监会关于提供 于投资那些真正有实力的公司。 透明公开，这样投资者就能够 知道该公司为了扭转不佳业绩 财务信息的规定更为严格，要 在此情况下，业绩不佳的公司的 股价将大跌，而业绩出色的公司 都做了哪些改进。Ji Yuntao解释 求进行更深入的审计分析。 证 监会 还 推 出了针对 首 次 的股价将大涨。” 说： “大家都知道，2012年中远

众所周知，船运市场目前处于低 迷时期

枢纽：台北 ■ ■ ■

亚洲自由贸易的焦点 台湾现在希望与其它国家签署贸易协定，David Green认为这对于本土的船运商来说无疑是个好消息

去

年11月，台湾与新 加 坡 签署了一 份 自由贸 易协定， 向着扩大地区 贸易自由化的目标迈 进了一大 步。中期来看，扩大贸易自由化 是 保 持 集 装 箱船 运 需 求必需 的条件。 与新加坡签订的这份协定， 是台湾与 东 南 亚 国 家 签 署 的 第一份此类贸易协定。2013年 初，台湾刚与新西兰签订了一份 类似的贸易协定。 签署 这 两份 贸易协定 意 义 重大，预示着台湾有可能有机 会加入以美国为首的泛太平洋 战略经济伙伴关系协定(TPP)， 或加入以中国为中心的区域全 面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)， 后 者从 理 论 上 来说包 括亚 洲 16个成员国和东南亚国家联盟 (ASEAN)。 据英国航运咨询公司Drewry Maritime Equity Research高级分 析师Rahul Kapoor的分析，上述 两大合作伙伴协定都还在洽谈 当中。不过协议一旦最终达成， 意义就很重大，因为亚洲范围 内的贸易必须强劲发展，才能 跟上船运业飞速发展的步伐。 Kapoor介绍说： “任何自由 贸 易协定 都 会 积 极 推 动贸 易 量 增 长。”他 补充说，鉴于 新 加坡已经确立自由贸易港的地 位，台湾与新加坡签订的这一 贸易协定不大可能会对货物贸 易量有太大影响。他继续介绍 说： “显然，任何下调关税的举 措都必将推动贸易增长，不过 目前还难以预测下调的幅度到 底有多大。 “就特定的航运公司而言， 万海航运公司专注于亚洲范围 内的业务，因此它（在台湾的三 大航运公司中）最有可能从区域 贸易协议中受益。贸易量一直都 在增长，所以需求不是问题。” 集装箱船运力迅猛增长，主 要是台湾的区域竞争对手的运 力增长，导致亚洲范围内航运 价格下降。Kapoor指出，即便贸 易量保持稳健增长，未来18个 月内情况也不会有多大改观。 与此同时，台湾正在充分利

用一切机会，想方设法加入TPP 或RCEP，不过中国大陆的反对 可能会起到阻碍作用，不仅仅 限于台湾加入协定的问题。 新加坡东南亚研究所的首席 经济形势研究员Sanchita Basu Das评论说： “TPP谈判目前停 滞不前，因为[去年12月份]截止 日期就已经过了，包括马来西亚 和越南在内的主要倡议国都对 [是否签署美国主导的贸易协定 心存顾虑]，因为他们不想因此 惹恼中国。”

已经很低，因此台湾可能加入 T PP或RCEP对于21世纪的贸 易具有更为深远的意义，受影 响的方面包括竞争政策、知识 产权保护和金融服务等。就我 看来，如果中国不能成为T PP 的一份子，则台湾也无法加入 TPP。我认为，台湾应当先寻求 与马来西亚或泰国签订双边贸 易协议。” 实际上，台湾驻马来西亚的 代表Lo Yu-chung呼吁台湾和 马来西亚在12月30日签订贸易

万海航运公司专注于亚洲范围内 的业务，因此它最有可能从地区贸 易协议中受益 Das表 示，无论台湾能否想 出办法打破与中国大陆的外交 僵局，台湾与新加坡及新西兰 的双边贸易协定都为台湾确立 了蓝本。台湾可以此为基础，与 亚洲地区的其他国家签订类似 协议。 她 介 绍 说 ：“ 根 据 亚 太 经 济合作组织的货物协议，关税

协议。他特别指出，尽管2013年 前11个月双方的双边贸易增长 了13%，达到150亿美元，但是 由于台湾出口到马来西亚的货 物被征收了10%的关税，台湾企 业在马来西亚的市场份额正在 缩减。 台湾进一步推进双边贸易， 乃至最后加入TPP或RCEP，显

然对于通过台湾各港口进行的 贸易有积极的意义，不过这并 不一定表明航运公司和港口能 够从中获益。 Paul Tae-Woo Lee表示： “周 边国家之间签订贸易协议，特 别是韩国、日本和东盟(ASEAN) 成员国签订协议，将会大幅增 加通过台湾转运的货物量。” Paul Tae-Woo Lee是位于台北的 东吴大学的客座教授，也是为 数不多几位以韩国的自由贸易 协议对海运贸易量所产生的影 响为研究课题的学者之一。 Lee认为，在此情况下，以中 国为中心的RCEP于2015年顺利 签订，将会使成员国之间的免 税商品量大幅增加。由于贸易 量会随之大增，所以能否成功 签订RCEP对于台湾保持转运 中心地位至关重要。 台湾深知加入新的国际贸易 合作协定的地缘政治意义。即 便如此，外界普遍认为，无论台 湾是否能够加入贸易协定，交 易进展是亚洲范围内贸易增长 必不可少的条件。贸易增长也 是保持现有的运力增长和促进 转运贸易的必要条件。 SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 枢纽：香港

我们当前的任 务是促进香港 发展升级，成 为堪与伦敦相 媲美的国际航 运服务中心

自香港回归以来，梁振英特首比历届前任更注重香港海运发展

香港终于开始重视航运业 SinoShip为梁振英政府成立海事局的决策大声叫好 香 港 政 府 终 于 不只 是 泛 泛 的 关 航 运 业，而 开 始 重 视 这 个 行 业 。负 责 监 管 港 口 建 设 和 航 运 服 务 的 新 海 事局成 立 在即。 过去十年间，香港在亚洲航 运业的地位日渐 衰 落，往日辉

煌不再。许多业内人士也曾多 次敦促 董 建 华 和曾荫 权 政 府 采取行动。自从1997年香港回 归以来，在重振香港航运业方 面，现任香港特首梁振英是最 为积极主动的一位。 今 年 一月份，梁 振 英 在 第

二份施政 报告中指出， “在 未 来一年，政府将明确新机构的 具体职能、组织结构和资金来 源，并向业界咨询意见。届时 我们也将尽快推进必要的立法 程序。” 议员刘健仪提出， “我们当

前的任 务 是 促 进 香 港发 展升 级，成为堪与伦敦相媲美的国 际航运服务中心。”她补充说， 应把工作重点更多放在服务， 而非集装箱港口建设上，这点 非常重要，因为香港的集装箱 物流业务正在不断流失到近邻 深圳。 香港华光海运控股有限公司 董事长赵式明对《南华早报》 记者表示说： “新机构需要由对 航运业了如指掌的资深人士来 执掌”。她认为： “如果我们现 在行动起来，迎头赶上，一切还 不算晚。” 去年中英船务管理公司总裁 Peter Cremers对SinoShip论及香 港航运机遇时所说的一番话， 令人印象深刻。他说， “列车已 经离站，前往新加坡。”虽然时 隔十年香港政府才开始关注海 运，梁振英团队的这一举措依 然值得赞赏。

亚洲首个排放控制区 香港距成 为亚洲首个排放控 制区（ECA）又更近一步。一月 中旬公报刊出了《空气污染管 制（船用轻柴油）条例》，介绍 对船用轻柴油（MLD）的质量 管控，旨在减少本地船只的废 气排放。 环境保护署发言人表示，条 例规定了本地的船用轻柴油供 货商必须满足的技术参数，即 硫含量不能超过0.05%。这跟 当前0.5%左右的硫含量标准 相比，下降了90%。 该发言人介绍说， “与使用 0.5%硫含量柴油的船只相比，使 用0.05%硫含量柴油的船只排放 的二氧化硫（SO2）量减少90% ，可吸入悬浮颗粒物（RSP）减 少30%。如果严格执行此条例， 航运业产生的二氧化硫和可吸

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一年中30%的时间里，香港能见度不足八公里

入悬浮颗粒物排放量将分别减 少19%和10%。这有助于改善大 气质量，减轻民众健康风险，尤 其对于靠海的居民。” 任何人如果提供不合规柴 油，将被处以最高5万美元的

罚款 及 最 多三个月的监 禁。 香港当地政府一直在联系深圳 和广州有关部门，共同推动排放 控制区在珠江三角洲的发展。 本地智囊团思汇政策研究 所（Civic Exchange）和香港科

技大学联 合近期发布的报告 显示，船运污染是与二氧化硫 相关死亡事件的罪魁祸首。 该 报告 表明，成 立排 放 控 制区将使珠江三角洲的二氧化 硫排放量最多减少95%。

书籍 ■ ■ ■

巴西将要主办2014年世界杯和2016年奥运会

火热的前景 Paul French审视金砖四国（BRIC）中的B（巴西）的形势 在 所 谓 的 金砖四国（BRIC） 中，也许其中的‘B’，即巴西，是 大家关注和了解最少的国家。 介绍中国和印度的书籍已经是 汗牛充栋，并且这两个国家对于 所有企业和服务提供商来说都 是“梦寐以求的”市场。介绍俄 罗斯的书也相当多，不过也许其 中大部分都是警告热切的生意 人，让他们了解这个巨大的市场 风险重重，有很多难以琢磨之 处。巴西在金砖四国中仍然是 最不为人所知的国家。当然，阳 光、海滩、足球、贫民窟等等都 是人们对巴西的印象，不过，大 家对巴西的经济和社会状况所 知甚少。巴西将很快举办2014年 足球世界杯，2016年里约热内卢 奥运会也为时不远。随着这两 项赛事的临近，外界对巴西尚未 开发的消费市场和制造业的产 能情况的兴趣与日俱增。在此 情况下，今年很有可能将推出大 量介绍巴西情况的书籍。 果不其然，巴西在金砖四国 概念之父Jim O’Neill的新书《 发展蓝图：金砖四国及其它国

家的经济机遇》）中占据了大量 篇幅。从2001年起，高盛集团资 产管理主席O’Neill开始谈论 金砖四国（BRIC）这个概念， 之前外界一直长期认为巴西这 个国家有潜力成为经济大国。 然而，数十年过去了，巴西并未 实现外界对它的期望。这种情 况在2003年Lula da Silva就任 巴西总统时开始改观，他开始

和投资监管等问题，要想全面 打入该市场困难重重。 Ruchir Sharma的著作《一炮 走红的国家：探寻下一个经济 奇迹》）也对金砖四国进行了深 入的剖析，不过他对巴西发展 情景没有那么乐观。他声称，投 资在巴西GDP中所占的比重一直 停滞在大约19%或20%的水平， 也就是说巴西过度依赖商品出

如果巴西不采取行动，安于现状， 它会永远是一个新兴市场，难以纵 深发展 推行卓有成效的反通货膨胀政 策。O’Neill介绍说，推行该政 策最终的结果是，到2050年， 巴西的 经 济 规 模 将 超 出目前 的水平四倍。巴西精力充沛的 年轻人口和‘发展加速政策’ （Growth Acceleration Policy）应 该发挥巨大的作用。不过，与俄 罗斯、中国或印度一样，巴西也 同样存在官僚主义、政治管制

口，所以受国际价格波动影响非 常大。除此之外，主管新兴市场 投资组合的Sharma响应说，巴西 在基础设施升级方面投资严重 不足，离巴西想要彻底崛起，成 为工业和制造业强国所需的基 础设施投资水平相去甚远。 我们已经对巴西进行了足够 的总体分析，那么，与巴西关系 密切的人怎么评价巴西的呢？

在其著作《巴西：一 个国家的 崛起》）中，纽约时报记者Larry Rohter描绘了巴西从债务国发 展成为全球发展最快的经济体 之一的巨大成就。与许多人相 比，Rohter对巴西政府通过经济 政策发挥重大作用，进而获得 重大的发展收益给予了高度评 价。不过，他认为巴西的发展之 路仍将饱受各种矛盾的困扰。 巴西在上世纪发现最大规模的 油田，所以有机会成为向美出口 原油的主要石油输出国，从而获 得经济发展所需资金。 最后，让我们看看布鲁金斯 学会（Brookings Institution）的 全球经济发展（Global Economy and Development）项目的分析师 们的论文合 集：《巴西是 经济 大国吗？：了解巴西在全球经济 中的作用正在变化》）。这本合 集重在分析巴西经济的几大支 柱 — 能源、农业、服务业和 高科技产业。在上述各领域，巴 西都有达到世界一流水平的能 力。然而作为拉丁美洲最大的国 家，巴西仍然面临全球经济一 体化中的不平等问题和根深蒂 固的犹疑态度的困扰。 所有这些书似乎都有类似的 结论，即如果巴西不采取行动， 安于现状的话，它会永远是一 个新兴市场，难以纵深发展。 SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 意见

会飞奔还是小步前进？ 中国农历春节有很多风俗都是必不可少的庆祝活动元素。Bei Hong考察其中 哪些风俗习惯可能适用于船运行业 现 在 中 国 农 历 春 节已 经 过 去，生活重心又回归日复一日的 繁杂琐事。我一直对西方的新 年庆祝活动不太感兴趣。对我 来说，新年 将 会是‘前所未有 最棒聚会’的期待几乎总会 落 空。另外，在 寒冷刺骨的天气 里，与成百上千的人争抢出租 车回家，而且其中许多人已经 有些过于沉迷其中，这绝非我 设想中好的新年开始。相比之 下，我更喜欢注重家庭生活的 中国春节，因为其中牵涉到很 多风俗习惯和礼仪，这可能会 对船 运行业有所启发，或者船 运行业已经照着做了。 中国新 春 佳节的第一 个 传 统就是迎新春大扫除。最近， 新的法律法规表明中国国内的 30

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船 运 企 业将已 经 开始 逐 步淘 汰船龄较长的船，同时一些主 要中国船东似乎已经按传统行 事，并且已经确定了要报废的 老旧船只。鉴于马年的前景看 起来要好于之前的蛇年，许多 其他船东受到吸引，非常希望 加 快 淘 汰 这 些 老旧 船 舶的 速 度。因此，如果我们更严格地 遵守习俗行事，也许更有可能 在马年兴旺发达。 在 欢 庆 春 节 之 前，还 清 外 债也是一种传统。市场状况回

暖，意味着我们不会碰到承租 方像 过去 几 年 那 样 哭 穷的 情 况。不过毫 无疑问的是，相当 数量的欧洲银行机构都期望他 们的客户遵循这一特定传统， 把账还清。 中国有新 年的 第一天 穿 新 衣的习俗，所以春节前这段时 间掀起购物的热潮，鞋卖得尤 其好。我们似乎不难发现，造 船 业 购 进 新 船 的 情 形 堪比中 国人的春节大采购，火爆程度 已经达到令人堪忧的地步。在

进入新年以来，市场一直呈大幅 波动之势，预示着2014年可能会是 跌宕起伏的一年

去年的最后几个月间，造船业 的旧爱超大型油轮强势回归， 获得大笔订单。可能不是所有 新船都能在马年投入使用，不 过，眼下这股购船热潮是否意 味着2016猴年和2017鸡年船舶 销售前景黯然失色？只有等待 时间证明一切。中国新年还有 另一项传统，即在新年后的一 个月内不买新衣服，如果船东 们照做的话，那么情况还算不 上最糟。 不管 您是在请 教 算命先 生，还是通过办公桌上每天都 会收到的海量研究报告获得咨 询意见，最难的事情莫过于搞 清楚新的一年前景如何。乐观 者似乎已经确信今年的形势定 会好于去年，并且，从2 013年 前9 个月船 运市场的糟糕情况 来看，实现好转应该不会太困 难。由于2014年头两个月的市 场经历了剧烈波动，其他一些 人由此认为马年将会是动荡的 一年。不管 最终如何，都希望 大家在2014年身体健康，生活 幸福。

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深夜一条狗的神秘事件 ‘对于伴随我们发展的海洋船舶保赔 体系来说，风险正在日益加剧’

据Andrew Craig-Bennett分析，针对行业巨头的 保赔索赔事件可能越来越多 在 B B C 的现代版《大侦探福 尔摩斯》风 行中国之际，这 篇 有关保赔的专栏文章带有极强 的阿瑟·柯 南·道尔爵士的行 文风格。 我要说的不是保赔协会的保 险对象或如何进行保险。这些 是您的经纪人做的事情。我想 着重介绍别的情形。 上 世 纪 五 六 十 年 代，我 还 是 一 个 毛 头 小 伙 时，劳 合 社 ( L loyd’s) 在 业 界的地位可以 说是如日中天。劳合社在以下 方 面 十 分 出 众，让 成 员 单 位 都引以为傲：出类 拔萃的（文 件）体系；劳合社是当年旧金 山大 火 后 唯一 一 家 对保 单全 额赔偿的承保公司。正因为如 此，凭借Cuthbert Heath的远 见卓识，劳合社在北美保险市 场 的 统 治 地位长 达一 个 世 纪 长 盛 不 衰；劳 合 社 的 做 市 商 制 度 出 类 拔 萃，能 够 做 到 为 劳 合 社根 据 战 争 险 水 上协议 (Waterborne Agreement)认为 不可予以保险的事项之外的所 有风险进行保险。 现 在 情 况 已 经 不 同 了。在 Rowland改革后，曾经在保险行 业叱咤风云的劳合社（主要是 Cuthbert Heath的功劳）真正保留 下来的就是出色的定价机制。劳

合社已经雄风不再。这一点问问 沃伦·巴菲特就能知道。 不过也并非完全如此：保赔 协 会 每 年 都 探 讨 集团的超额 赔款合同，这是一段有意思的 小插曲，一个无名小卒这么告 诉我。虽然尝试过在费用最高 昂的船舶残骸清除作业的巨大 冲击下蹒跚前进，或者根据我 知道的消息，慕尼黑再保公司 (Munich Re)提议，未来船舶残 骸清除索赔金额上限为单次事 故或事件不超过10亿美元。 这项提议并未获得通过；其 他再保公司拒绝响应慕尼黑再 保的倡议。就眼下的情况来看， 存在再次发生类似于豪华邮轮“ 歌诗达协和号”(Costa Concordia) 残骸清除索赔的可能性。这对于 伦敦来说是个小胜利。

这件 事虽然本身无足轻 重，我 们 却 有 更 加 重 要 的 发 现。其中存在实际承受能力的 问题。对于伴随我们发展的海 洋船舶保赔体系来说，风险正 在日益加剧。按照大邮轮的标 准 来 看，歌诗达协和号（如图 所示）这 艘 船不算太大，并且 船上伤亡的船员和乘客人数并 不太多。 “Mol Comfort”号集装 箱船根本算不上是特大的集装 箱船，不过保赔协会应当庆幸 的是，该船大部分货物都按到 岸价格运输，并且在日本船 运 市场进行保险，按照日本有关 规章制度进行理赔，所以货物 的赔偿金额会比其他保险方式 要少得多。 令人 担忧的是 未 来 这 些 情 况可能很寻常。保赔协会被告 知，使Captain Schettino船体漂 浮的舷侧凸体存在设计错误， 结 果 造 成保 险 赔 付金 额 增 加

苏格兰场侦探：“还有其他要我 留意的事情吗？” 福尔摩斯:“请注意，狗在夜间的表 现很不寻常。” 侦探：“狗在夜里什么都没做 啊。” 福尔摩斯:“正因为这样才奇怪。

1200万美元。该索赔金额是一 个总额。可是没有人注意到这一 点。各种小细节加到一起，形成 了巨大的索赔金额。 真正令人担忧的并非赔偿金 额可能会变得更大，而是此类看 上去微不足道、其实耗费巨大的 索赔一而再、再而三地发生。 您 可 能 会 这么 想，既 然 全 球 的 船 东 们 要为 如 此 巨额 的 损失买单，他们肯定会率先要 求嘉 年 华邮 轮 集团(C a r n iv a l C or p or ation) 解释清 楚：为何 嘉年华集团没有要求船 长 Schettino在向女友炫耀能耐之 前，至少应当设好船体平行坐 标系；他们肯定会要求三菱重 工(Mitsubishi Heavy)、MOL和 日本船级社(Class NK)解释清 楚 为 何 船 体 会 在 极 为正常 的 气候条件下破裂。就是这么简 单的事情；常识性问题却无人 质疑。 狗在夜里没有任何动静— 甚至连叫声都没有—就是因为 狗认出来干坏事的是自己的主 人。 全 球各地的普 通 船东也没 有表示异议。他们也看出来谁 是主宰，那就是他们行业的大 佬 —屈指可数的几家行业巨 头，这些巨头的收入超过很多 国家的GDP。可是，他们自己犯 下如此令人严重的过错，却让 大家一起为他们的过错买单。 SINOSHIP 2014年春季刊

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