SinoShip Summer Issue 2012

Intermodal rail survey FPSO buildup Haichang’s changing fleet Summer 2012

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Ship recycling special Chinese crews Hong Kong maritime under C Y Leung

Cruise emperor

Exclusive interview with China’s first cruise magnate Sinoship Summer 2012

I

CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars 4 Economy

The grass is growing high in many yards that have closed due to a lack of orders

7 Lines

— Zhang Shouguo, China Shipowners’ Association

3 Editor’s Comment

9

9 Yards 11 Offshore 13 Finance 15 Commodities 16 Logistics 17 Cruise

■ ■ ■ Profiles 19 Huang Weijian

China will be the largest cruise market in the future

19

— Huang Weijian, China Cruises Company

Bulk freight rates are facing tremendous pressure

21 Mao Shijia

— U-Ming’s C K Ong

22 Wang Deming

23

23 C K Ong

■ ■ ■ Features 24 Ship Recycling 26 Crewing 30 Korea in China

■ ■ ■ Hubs

Several owners, pretending to be green, have cut corners when it comes to the recycling of their vessels

25

— Grieg Green’s Petter Heier

32 Shanghai 33 Taipei 35 Hong Kong

■ ■ ■ Reviews

There are not enough qualified seafarers being produced — Bjorn Hojgaard, Univan Ship Management

36 Books

26

■ ■ ■ Opinions 37 Bei Hong 38 Li Deng Bai 39 Manish Singh

More training needs to be imparted at all levels

28

— Peter Cremers, Anglo Eastern Sinoship Summer 2012

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UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@sinoship.org CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@sinoship.org CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@sinoship.org BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Paul French HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI Joshua Samuel Brown CONTRIBUTORS Li Dong, Bei Hong, Manish Singh, Matthew Flynn PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao All editorial material should be sent to sam@sinoship.org or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@sinoship.org CHINA SALES DIRECTOR Tom Wu tom@sinoship.org SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent please email grant@sinoship.org for details.

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Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2012 Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@sinoship.org.

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Yuan rising It’s a busy issue of SinoShip with plenty of exclusive interviews of top owners, as befits a magazine heading to Athens for the big shipping jamboree that is Posidonia.

On page 32 Paul French looks at the obstacles still facing Shanghai in its goals to become both an international finance and maritime centre by 2020. The inflexibility of the yuan is cited as one major constraint.

However, while we were attending a BIMCO conference in Singapore recently there were good signs that the yuan is shaping up as a global currency, and this is something we applaud, and should be seen as a good thing for the industry as a whole.

China has been offering foreign shipowners yuan ship financing for discounted newbuildings at Chinese yards.

State-controlled Bank of China’s Hong Kong branch has revealed that it has been actively offering yuan loans to foreign shipowners since the second half of last year.

According to Bank of China senior manager for corporate business, Pakco Lam, Chinese yards are now offering discounts on contracts for such payments.

“Vessel deliveries usually take two or three years and the yuan is expected to appreciate over time. Also Chinese yards are often paying for labour and buying raw materials in the local currency,” Lam said.

“From what we know, buyers can usually get a 5% discount when paying in yuan.”

At the same event Michael Harvey, coo at Rio Tinto Marine, said that the talk amongst major miners currently is the possibility of trading being conducted in the Chinese currency, something Lam reckons could happen within two to three years.

There’s been plenty of speculation of late on the yuan’s rise as an international currency. HSBC maintains the view that the yuan will be a top three global trade currency in the next five years and expects one-third of China’s $6trn trade to be settled in yuan by 2015.

The famous economist Jeffrey Sachs is

another big believer in the inevitable rise of the Chinese currency, saying recently: “The most basic point is that the US dollar, the sole reserve currency for decades, cannot play that role going forward. Ideally, we like to see three or four more reserve currencies with flexible arrangements among them. The world would be helped by having at this point multiple and stable reserve currencies.”

China’s economic rise can only lead to greater prominence for its currency — the regulators will work a way to make the yuan more flexible, and no doubt Shanghai, which continues to welcome shipping service providers in their droves, will achieve its 2020 vision.

Sam Chambers Editor sam@sinoship.org Sinoship Summer 2012

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■ ■ ■ Economy

SLOWING DOWN? China is geared up for above 8% growth

Still bright Shanghai correspondent Paul French joins the hard or soft landing debate There is no real doubt that China’s economy is slowing. However, the debate over whether the PRC will have a soft or a hard landing is vigorous and hard fought on both sides. And a side must be taken.

China’s GDP growth rate slowed in the first quarter, but the slowdown was measured and consistent with a soft landing scenario, as had been forecast by the official government economists in Beijing (who got it pretty much right this time). According to Zhang Xiaoqiang, the deputy director of the powerful and influential National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), GDP growth in Q1 was around 8.4% year-on-year, down from 8.9% year-on-year growth in the Q4 of last year but within most analysts’ forecast ranges of 8-8.5% GDP growth for 2012.

If the target is 7.5% GDP growth probably everyone can live with that given that China’s politicians tend to underestimate for effect so most still expect the 8-8.5% in reality. At this level the emergent, but increasingly strained, middle 4

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class can pull their horns in a bit and learn to live with lower property prices and a rising cost of living; the working poor (now the target of minimum wage rises to ease their pain) can adjust; and the rich will of course, by-and-large, remain rich. But can the Communist Party live with 8%? It’s enjoyed buying all those arms and new aircraft carriers as well as spending on all that infrastructure (the 7.5% target clearly indicates no new round of stimulus money is going to be released). Don’t forget too the handing out of all that political pork nationally and globally (Africa, Latin America, etc). It may be that everyone can pull their horns in and live within their means except the central government spenders, Beijing. No hard landing except maybe for those who’ve gorged on stimulus money.

The flies in the ointment right now include high global crude prices, which are having a significant impact on China’s food prices and overall inflation rate, just as it looked to be coming down again. In March Beijing

raised retail petrol and diesel prices by about 7%, which adds to business costs for many, and living costs for middle class car owners. More importantly than whether the middle class can run their SUVs, high oil prices impact on food prices, especially grain, but ultimately across the board due to rising transportation and fertiliser prices.

High oil prices impact on food prices Consumer spending is still a hot topic. Unsurprising, given that retail sales grew 15.2% yearon-year. But watch out for that rebound in both industrial output and fixed-asset investment — output rose 11.9% year-onyear in the first quarter and fixed asset investment by 20.9% over the first quarter of 2011. Output is up because export orders as well as domestic demand is up (and freight volumes were up across the board). Most analysts expect this pick-up in activity to continue into the second quarter.

All this activity and a perception that export orders will continue to strengthen in 2012 meant that banks have shown willing to lend again in China — bank results (including all the Big Four state banks) were surprisingly good. Of course Old China Hands are aware that Chinese bank balance sheets are problematic at best but the consensus is that most banks are healthier and more profitable than they’ve been for years. Time then, say many, for the banks to give a little to the people who made them healthy — their customers. Interest rates still remain tiny to non-existent in China meaning the high savings rate persists while the banks still tend to lend disproportionately to capital, rather than labour, intensive business — such as property and commodities.

More lending is generally good but it tends to be lending to the big boys and the State Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

Most agree that right now its small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that would benefit most from loans and that their growth would, given that they tend to be labour rather than capital led, be good for the national economy in creating jobs and hence the tax base and discretionary spending.

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LINES ■ ■ ■

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HNA Group took action against top execs at failing subsidiary Grand China Logistics (GCL).

21 senior GCL officials, including president Jia Hongxiang (pictured), suffered a variety of punishments, from demotion and pay cuts to dismissal. Sister firm Jinhai Heavy Industries has been forced to resell up to seven capesizes originally ordered by GCL. The newbuilds were sold for just $36.5m each.

Pacific Basin aims to sell its non-core shipping operations to focus on dry bulk and towage businesses. Freight rates in 2012 are expected to be weaker overall than 2011, the Hong Kong firm noted. Klaus Nyborg has now Pac Basin, with Mats Berglund set to be the new ceo.

“The ongoing dry bulk market crisis should present acquisition opportunities for wellcapitalised owners like us,” the company reported in a filing.

China COSCO Holdings, the country’s biggest state-owned shipping firm, might seek up to

RMB10bn ($1.59bn) from the Ministry of Finance after record losses in 2011. The company’s 2011 financial report showed that China COSCO registered a whopping RMB10.45bn in net losses for 2011, and had the weakest-performing stock among all A-share listed companies.

Inventive Taiwanese shipowner Nobu Su has come up with a design for a large LNG floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) that would use some of Today Makes Tomorrow (TMT)’s very large ore oilers (VLOOs). The LNG-FSRU will have a capacity of 190,000 cu m, a 10 m draught and regas capacity of some 5m tonnes per annum (mtpa). TMT is pursuing an early first-quarter 2014 delivery for the converted unit at Hyundai Heavy Industries, which built the original VLOOs.

Fast expanding Wisdom Marine signed with Japan’s Tsuneishi to build three 45,400 dwt bulkers plus one on option at the shipbuilder’s Chinese facility in

Zhoushan. The ship design is one jointly developed between the owner and the yard and costs $27.5m per unit. Ships will be delivered in 2014.

with Q1 losses of RMB273.1m, almost three times as bad as the same period in 2011 and the stock exchange suspendoing trading of its 10-year bonds.

Evergreen Line, the last major line to hold out from the 10,000 teu rush, said it will charter 10 ships with capacities of 13,800 teu. The Taiwanese carrier signed a memorandum of agreement to lease the ships from a subsidiary of Korea Development Bank. The ships will be built

by Hyundai Heavy Industries.

Deliveries are set to begin in the fourth quarter of 2013. At a reported $115m per ship, these vessels are being built incredibly cheap. “Evergreen has been working on this for a while and jumps to head of pack with this,” analyst Charles de Trenck commented on SinoShip China Shipping Network, our Linked In site.

Andy Tung, the eldest son of Tung Chee-hwa, will succeed Philip Chow as ceo of OOCL on July 1, signalling the transition of the third generation of Tung leadership at the Hong Kong containerline. Chow will move to a non-executive director post at parent company, OOIL. Tung has served as coo since January 2009.

Andy Tung

Tough times at Sinotrans-CSC subsidiary Nanjing Tanker saw it receive an official warning from the Shanghai Stock Exchange as it posted its second consecutive year of net losses, posting RMB754m ($120m) in losses for 2011. Worse followed

Chinese shipbuilders moving into owning/leasing of their own-built tonnage has become one of the themes of 2012 in the China maritime universe.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding became the latest to go down this route, incorporating a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore, namely, Yangzijiang Shipping Pte Ltd. The core business of the subsidiary is related to leasing and chartering of vessels.

Your chance to reach the right audience This magazine is being read by every major shipowner and shipyard across Greater China.

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Sinoship Summer 2012

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

Titanic order

Energised SinoShip’s new Guangzhou correspondent Fanglei Wang suggests there is salvation from the current shipbuilding slump Chinese shipbuilding’s dire times continue, but salvation lies in climbing the technology ladder and really getting into the offshore act, something that is clearly happening across a swathe of the top yards. The cull that will happen this year, what top executives from big names like China State Shipbuilding Co (CSSC) reckon could be as high as a 50% extinction rate, is clearly needed — the wheat is being sorted.

In the first three months of 2012, newbuilding contracts plummeted by 48.7% in China to 5.59m dwt and the orderbook as of the end of March stood at 141.94m dwt, down by 25.3% year-on-year and down by 5.3% on the end of 2011, according to a quarterly report of the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) on April 25.

According to local media, around 80% of shipyards in Zhejiang province have either suspended production or are operating at half their capacity.

“The grass is growing high in many yards that have closed due to a lack of orders,” said Zhang Shouguo, secretary general of industry group the China Shipowners’ Association.

“This is just the beginning of the woes for shipbuilders and the worst has yet to come.”

Productivity — and by extension technology capability — has to increase as one damning report from the Samsung Economic Research Institute of South Korea made clear. “China’s delivery per person, which represents yard productivity, only remains at 30% of those in South Korea and Japan.

Also, its localisation of equipment lingers at 60%,” researcher Bae Yong-Il warned.

10

Percentage of global offshore orders heading China’s way at present.

By 2020, the aim is to grab 50% of all orders However, in this weeding out exercise there are clearly signs of market leaders coming to the fore. Both Dalian Shipbuilding and Nantong Cosco KHI Ship Engineering Co (NACKS) joined Hudong-Zhonghua in bidding for an LNG ship tender for BG, Shanghai Shipyard is now building

drillships, while COSCO Shipyard and CIMC Raffles are repeatedly bagging tender rigs and semi-submersible orders. China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is ramping up its FPSO needs (see page 11) which is a bonus to local yards.

The big names are realigning business priorities: note China Shipbuilding Industry Co’s (CSIC) issuance of $8bn of convertible bonds last year, half of which are to be invested in offshore and energy facility projects.

China’s yards contracted 18 offshore units totalling $5bn and making up 10% of the global offshore order intake in 2011, according to a report from CANSI. Under a mid- to long-term plan announced by Beijing in March the aim is to boost earnings from offshore construction to RMB400bn by 2020, ten times last year’s figure. By that time China should account for 50% of all offshore construction, again growing its share ten fold in the coming nine years — ambitious targets, but history shows it tends to hit these figures; witness its dramatic bid to be the number one shipbuilder, a target it smashed fully five years ahead of schedule.

SinoShip scrambled for its calendar to check it wasn’t April Fool’s Day when news filtered through recently that Australian billionaire Clive Palmer (pictured) had signed a memorandum of understanding with CSC Jinling Shipyard to build a modern version of the Titanic, which sank in the Atlantic 100 years ago.

The order is a landmark for China, its first ever cruiseship construction. It will have the same dimensions as its old version with 840 rooms and nine decks.

The vessel is just the tip of the iceberg, so to speak, as it will be part of a planned fleet of luxury cruiseships to be built at CSC Jinling in Nanjing, Palmer said, and the plans would help China become a major player in the cruiseship market.

The 58-year-old mining, property and football tycoon added: “It will be every bit as luxurious as the original Titanic, but of course it will have state-of-the-art twentyfirst century technology and the latest navigation and safety systems.”

Slated to be finished by 2016, Palmer also inked four 64,000 bulkers with the same yard.

The cruiseship order has surprised many who felt China was at least five years away from being able to take such a high spec order.

Sinoship Summer 2012

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OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■

All afloat: exploring the nation’s aspiring fpso ambitions China is already a major floating production, storage, and offloading vessel player, says Katherine Si, and has set ambitious goals going forward, both from an owning and construction point of view Only Brazil’s Petrobras has a greater number of floating production, storage, and offloading vessels (FPSOs) than China National Offshore Oil Co (CNOOC). And going forward, the market for FPSOs in China will accelerate as the nation tackles more ambitious deepsea exploration. As it stands CNOOC is the only one of China’s energy majors to own and operate FPSOs, but expect Sinopec and PetroChina to get in on the act soon.

Petrobras has 16 FPSOs with another eight on order while CNOOC has a total of 14 at present with no orderbook.

In 2012 CNOOC is busy with around 25 oil projects — 12 in the South China Sea, eight in Bohai Bay, one in the East China Sea and four overseas.

CNOOC’s FPSO operating subsidiary has ambitious goals, looking to grow profits to RMB1.8bn next year and RMB4.6bn by 2020. Much of this growth will come from overseas developments, according to general manager Zhang Wukui, who says the firm will focus overseas on Brazil, the Middle East and Australia with a view to having between eight and 10 FPSOs operating overseas by 2020.

CNOOC has grand plans to boost oil output from last year’s 50.14m tonnes to 120m tonnes by 2030, according to Xiaojian Jin, CNOOC general manager for projects and construction and project manager for South China Sea deepwater development.

FPSO demands in China itself are not enormous at present, reliant as they are on successful oil finds around the nation’s coastline which have been pretty slow of late.

“The FPSO demands in China now are not huge but not weak also, which mostly depends on the market and environment. The financial crisis in 2008 made the demands for FPSOs weaker, but from 2010, 2011 and this year, the demands are recovering, but we can not predict any fast growth of this section,” Zhao

of business development in Southeast Asia for Larsen & Toubro, told a conference in Singapore this April: “A lot of yards in China are getting into FPSOs.” Larsen & Toubro, which specialises in engineering and related offshore development work, recently opened an office in Shanghai to focus on the mainland market.

CNOOC has plans to operate up to 10 FPSOs overseas by 2020 Zehua, director of the offshore engineering equipment development research and consulting centre at state-run China Shipbuilding Industry Corp tells SinoShip. It’s all about exploration success, he relates, while also noting the global growth in demand for FPSOs stands at a very healthy annual rate of 20%.

Philip Williams, the head

Among the leading shipyards specialising in FPSOs are Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding and Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. However, while China continues to make big strides in the field of FPSO construction and conversion it still lags behind, admits the CSIC executive, Zhao.

“Currently, Singapore is still the boss of building FPSOs. China cannot be the top one in the world for the time being,” Zhao admits.

However, David Boggs, managing director for Energy Maritime Associates, is adamant that China will play a more all encompassing role in FPSO development in the future as he outlined at a conference in Tianjin this May. “China already plays a big role in the industry, especially in the fabrication portion. Going into the future, I think China will play a larger role in the engineering as well as financial aspects of the FPSO project. Currently, there are a lot of domestic projects in China, and as Chinese oil companies do more projects overseas, other companies in China will probably get involved too in the engineering, construction and financing of those projects,” Boggs concluded.

Sinoship Summer 2012

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Finance ■ ■ ■

Lease time Standard Chartered have recently published a 240-page book looking at ship finance. Sander Scheepens, the bank’s md and head of ship lease and finance provides an overview of the changing leasing scene Historically, equity and asset-backed bank financing are the most widely used methods for financing both newbuilds and second-hand vessels. Since the onset of the financial crisis, many banks have been struggling with a reduced appetite and balance sheet constraints.

Leasing has provided an alternative means of financing, helping to plug the liquidity gap and is becoming an increasingly popular source of financing among Asian shipping firms.

Under leasing structures, vessels are acquired through sale and leaseback; directly from shipyards; or acquired in the sale and purchase markets and leased on a long-term, bareboat charter basis to the lessees.

As with any financing decision, lessees should carefully assess the proposed transaction with thorough financial analysis.

While leasing will cost more than senior secured debt, it is important for a lessee to consider the fair cost of its equity as well. Thus, to make a fair comparison, lessees will need to compare the cost of capital offered by the leasing company to the weighted average cost of capital (wacc) of the lessee.

Lessees will also need to consider their own capital structure in planning their fleet expansion.

The cfo of the shipping company must identify the appropriate and sustainable debt-equity ratio for the firm. They can then ascertain if there is sufficient capacity on the balance sheet to finance the acquisition of the vessels through debt or to raise equity in the public markets.

The transaction costs and obligations (regulatory and others) of raising the equity will also need to be carefully evaluated, as part of the package.

While most leases offered by

financial lessors are on bareboat charters, there are also lessors who are willing to offer vessels on time charter.

An important feature of operating leases is that it allows shipping companies to offload residual risks to the lessor. If the cfo is not comfortable taking on too

obsolescence of a particular vessel type (especially those that are less fuel efficient and environmental friendly), they could transfer the residual risks of their asset to an operating lessor via sale and leaseback. The lessee can continue to enjoy the use of the vessels and, at the same

The use of leasing will continue to grow, especially to fill the funding gap left by the withdrawal of shipping banks many vessels or if there is a concern within the company about the potential

time, enjoy an improvement in its cash position from the sale proceeds.

Leasing, as a financing vehicle, comes in various forms. Part of its attraction to many shipping companies is its flexibility, allowing them to achieve different objectives through various structures, including joint ventures, sale and leasebacks, predelivery financing with a back-to- back lease or a straight lease.

Given the attractive costs of leasing (compared to the overall Wacc of shipping companies), the ability to offload residual risks and the availability of financing of up to 100%, the use of leasing will continue to grow, especially to fill the funding gap left by the withdrawal of major shipping banks from the market in recent years.

Sinoship Summer 2012

13

■ ■ ■ Finance

Stacking up Jonathan Silver and Jim James from law firm Norton Rose tell readers that while financial leasing is growing in the PRC, clearer regulations are needed Finance leasing was first introduced in China in the 1980s. After sluggish growth in the 1990s, the leasing industry has grown rapidly since, with support from both foreign and domestic investors.

Finance leasing companies are governed by a dual regulatory system, one administered by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) and the other by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM).

The CBRC regime enables domestic and foreign commercial banks to invest in PRC incorporated finance leasing companies which engage in financial leasing in the PRC. The MOFCOM regime not only enables foreign investors to invest in PRC incorporated finance leasing companies but also enables domestic non-financial institutions to establish PRC incorporated domestically-funded finance leasing companies.

There are two ways for a domestic PRC lessor to establish an offshore leasing subsidiary when structuring offshore or cross-border lease finance transactions.

First, by means of a ‘trusted relationship’, whereby the directors or shareholders of the offshore leasing subsidiary

14

are in some way connected to the PRC lessor and secondly, by establishing wholly-owned offshore leasing companies.

Each method requires various PRC government approvals and both are considered to

be highly regulated ‘overseas’ investments by the regulatory regime in the PRC. Where the finance leasing company has established an offshore leasing arm (whether by means of a

MOFCOM Foreign FLC

MOFCOM Domestic FLC

CRBC FLC

Investor eligibility

Low (only for total asset)

Low (only for total asset)

‘Principle’ investor or ‘Ordinary’ investor

Registered capital

US$10m

RMB170m

RMB100m

Government regulation and intervention

Lightly regulated

Lightly regulated

Heavily regulated and supervised

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‘trusted relationship’ or otherwise) a whole host of other issues need to be considered.

These relate to whether the asset which is to be leased is allowed to be imported into the PRC and various tax issues which when combined may be viewed as restrictive or uneconomic to the finance lease structure as a whole.

The current regulatory framework requires development as it is still lacking in clarity and consistency.

A key area needing clarification is the PRC registration system for aircraft and ships.

Various restrictions make it complicated for finance leasing companies or lessees to register rights over aircraft or ships. A notable limitation is the prohibition on foreign invested finance leasing companies registering vessels and aircraft in the PRC if their foreign shareholding exceeds 35% in the case of aircraft, or 50% in the case of ships.

There have, however, been some recent positive developments. The State Tax Bureau issued two notices in 2010 and 2011 respectively, providing that if a domestic finance leasing company sells a ship to an offshore lessee under a finance lease, then it may enjoy exemption from VAT when it exports the ship to an offshore lessee and the reimbursement of any VAT paid by it for purchasing the leased ship.

It is clear that the finance leasing industry in the PRC is set to grow. As yet, however, the industry, particularly for offshore (US$) finance lease products, remains in its infancy and more work needs to be done in developing the regulatory framework and leasing structures.

Commodities ■ ■ ■

Long lines China only became a net importer of coal in 2009, and yet already now accounts for a fifth of world seaborne trade

Stoking the economy Dalian correspondent Mark Downing ponders how China, despite having the world’s largest reserves of coal, has become a net importer of this vital fossil fuel Coal is the most in demand fossil fuel in the world, contributing more to energy supply over the last decade than almost all other forms of energy combined. Plentiful and relatively cheap, it is the dominant energy source for developing countries where demand surges have recently pushed prices to historic highs.

Just last year, China’s seemingly insatiable appetite for coal thrust it ahead of Japan to become the world’s largest coal importer despite ample reserves of its own — third behind the US and Russia. However, China does not really need to import coal; its coal production dwarfs that of any other country, mining more than 3.24bn tonnes last year, accounting for nearly half the world’s output and three times more than the world’s second largest producer, the US. Historically, China has been a net coal exporter because of its massive reserves, low

labour costs, attractive export prices and government incentives, with exports peaking at 94m tonnes in 2003. China’s coal imports have increased significantly from 10m tonnes a year in the early 2000s to 126m tonnes in 2009 when China became a net importer and soon reaching 182m tonnes by 2011 — about a fifth of seaborne trade. Last year, Hong Kong’s Noble Group estimated that China’s thermal coal imports alone could reach 200m tonnes by 2015 with other industry estimates of 180m to 300m tonnes.

With such immense reserves, why has China embraced imports? Much is low grade with impurities unsuitable for applications such as steel production. Additionally, highergrade imports allow some power plants to burn more without exceeding local pollution limits. However, rapidly rising domestic costs along with a steadily appreciating currency have made imports increasingly

feasible.

Central government policy has been a major factor in the changing dynamics of China’s coal industry. Since 2005, Beijing has shut down thousands of small, unsafe, environmentally unsound and inefficient coalmines partially restricting supply. Its parallel drive to integrate small township mines into larger state-owned enterprises has increased operating costs from increased safety regulations as well as higher labour costs — rising 13% just last year.

Further, in 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) allowed for the complete deregulation of thermal coal prices for utility use. But with electricity rates capped to mitigate inflation and foster economic development, the coal suppliers and power producers have struggled over pricing, culminating in a prolonged dispute in 2009 when an agreement on price could not

be reached, just at the time that importing coal from the major exporting nations Indonesia and Australia became economically viable.

Furthermore, coal transport within China has become increasingly expensive. Since coal production tends to be in the north and west hinterland with consumption typically along the heavily populated and industrialised coastal areas in the east and south, nearly half of China’s railway capacity is engaged in transporting coal.

As demand rises faster than the infrastructure capacity, the ensuing bottleneck is forcing more costly road transport and greater reliance on indirect railto-sea routes via eastern ports.

Despite substantial investments in renewable power sources and nuclear generation, China is expected to be heavily reliant on coal for the foreseeable future. Four-fifths of China’s electricity is generated by coal—double the world’s average — with 2% from oil and 1% from gas. It is already the world’s largest consumer of hydroelectric power but threatened by intensifying droughts.

Wind and solar do not yet offer affordable electricity on a large enough scale to assuage forecasted demand. Ultimately, at the end of 2010, China’s installed generating capacity reached 962 GWe of which fossil fuel accounted for 707 GWe, hydroelectric at 213 GWe, wind at 31 GWe and nuclear at only 10.8 GWe with minor projections to grow sevenfold by 2020.

Beijing is attempting to non-bindingly cap annual output at 3.9bn tonnes by 2015 to conserve both its resources and environment while encouraging greater imports and potentially supporting additional overseas coal production M&A through a special fund. Via a hybrid of market forces and central planning, China is being steered from what was once a largely isolated coal market into a major global player.

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■ ■ ■ LOGISTICS

TOO FEW Just one in ten boxes arriving or exiting China’s shores is moved by rail

Trackside China’s timetable for intermodal rail needs to speed up, argues Jason Jiang Rail is by common consent the most efficient mode to shift containers from ports, and yet the levels of rail usage vary massively around the world.

Rail is more environmentally friendly than roads, and leads to guaranteed delivery times, where as roads are often the victims of congestion and trucking is expensive.

Around the world’s major economic regions, China severely lags in intermodal rail as the table on this page attests.

China is the world’s most important centre of containerisation. For China, estimates suggest just one in ten boxes arriving or exiting its shores is moved on rail, as opposed to 40% in the US. Admittedly this is

Box cars Intermodal rail usage (%) US 40 India 35 Japan 33 EU 18 Russia 16 China 10

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an improvement over five years ago by around three percentage points, but it is not enough, especially as demographics ensure a huge sea change in the geography of China’s manufacturing zones as factories are increasingly moving west.

containers being transported via rail in this manufacturing colossus.

Last year, for instance, rail intermodal container cargo volumes only accounted for around 3% of the whole rail cargo amount.

“China Rail is severely short

Priority is given to transportation of natural resources and passengers Government statistics out this April show that logistics still account for 18% of all of China’s GDP, a very high figure, more than twice the costs in the US, for instance. This is in no small part down to the preponderance of trucking over rail.

Historically the increasingly huge demand in passenger railway transport has always taken priority in China’s rail development and this has brought around acute shortages in freight rail capacity as well as congestion on China’s highways.

Beijing has invested more in rail than any other nation in the world over the past decade.

However, there are still too few

on capacity. Consequently priority is given to transportation of natural resources and passengers. Commercial freight by rail is growing in demand, but supply is constrained. Inland China export manufacturing only really began for the last few years. As a result, the container infrastructure, such as depots and wagons, is not quite in place and are trying to catch up,” says Peter Tan, marketing director for APL Logistics in north Asia.

“Having high speed rail is expected to significantly increase capacity — many key OD pairs are dual tracked and higher speed hence more turns.

This will be beneficial to inland

shippers who are time sensitive and have larger shipping volumes,” Tan continues, adding, “Trucking is expensive and has reliability issues.”

In China’s last Five Year Plan (2006-2010) and the Medium and Long-Term Railway Development Plan, China had strengthened the importance of the development of railway container transport.

It has committed to grow rail container volumes from 3.2m teu to 10m teu. To fulfill this growth the Ministry Of Railways (MOR) decided to construct 18 rail container logistics centres at strategic locations across China, nine of which are now operational.

CRIntermodal was founded in 2007 with six domestic and international investors to develop the 18 rail container logistics centres.

“The 18 rail depots are really ‘hubs’ not ‘depots’,” explains APL’s Tan. They are designed specifically to address container volume needs by rail in their respective regions. “These hubs or terminals will only be as effective as the amount of rail capacity deployed through it and the OD pairs served,” Tan stresses.

At present, the various modes of transport are still managed by different national authorities.

There is a lack of unified vision, management and coordination in the construction and operation of freight infrastructure.

Likewise, unified standards and some basic conditions of interfaces needed to form an integrated transport system are not in evidence.

“The difference would be felt when these hubs are willing to work together with the rail operator, shippers and carriers to formalise a better match of cost effectiveness and transit time requirements,” says Tan. “Building rail depots may only be a part of the solution since the railway network connecting them to key regions around the country is the crux of the issue,” suggests an official from Hong Kong containerline OOCL.

CRUISE ■ ■ ■

Incoming Ever larger ships are calling China

Cash for calls Across Greater China there are big incentives for cruiselines to call, as Katherine Si outlines Greater China’s incredible growth story in the cruise sector is well documented, but what are cities doing to ensure they are getting in on the action?

“China’s cruise tourism market has been growing 30% annually, and still has great potential,” the director of cruise tourism at Chinese travel agency Ctrip said recently.

While there were around 750,000 cruise visitors to Chinese ports last year the China Cruise and Yacht Industry Association (CCYIA) has identified 300m Chinese as potential cruise passengers. To put that in perspective that is the equivalent of the entire population of either North America or Western Europe.

Incentives and subsidies are being doled out in ever increasing numbers, as competition hots up for lucrative cruise calls.

Among the most aggressive is the Taiwan Tourism Bureau.

Effective this year, any overseas cruiseships with more than 250

passengers that call at Taiwan homeports will receive one subsidy for each voyage. The subsidy varies from $10 to $25 per passenger depending on the numbers of the passengers a cruise ship carries to Taiwan.

The program is effective from February 15, 2012 to December 31, 2015.

has put significant investment to improve terminal and infrastructure facilities in our four international ports,” says Thomas Chang, director of Taiwan Tourism Bureau in New York. “To maintain and continue the momentum of the cruise business growth in Taiwan, we also develop some

Incentives are being doled out as competition hots up for lucrative cruise calls “As major cruiselines around the world continue to show interest in Asian itineraries, Taiwan government

25

US dollars on offer to cruiselines per tourist visiting Taiwan

incentive measures to the cruise industry to attract more visits to Taiwan in 2012 and beyond.

The new incentive and subsidy program is one of them.”

Cruise arrivals in Taiwan jumped from 88,000 to over 130,000 between 2009 and 2011.

Over 90 cruise calls were made at Taiwan ports in 2011 and over 110 cruise calls are anticipated for 2012.

Kaohsiung is building a new homeport, costing $87m, due

to open in 2014, while in the north Keelung is spending $78m upgrading its cruise facilities.

The fact is incentives clearly work. Within weeks of announcing them, Royal Caribbean indicated that it plans to have a 140,000 gt ship call at Keelung from August. In addition, Royal Caribbean is also considering making Keelung a homeport in the Asia region.

In April Holland America Line docked in Taiwan for the first time in 20 years after the 61,396 gt MS Zaandam stopped by carrying up to 1,400 Japanese visitors.

Arriving in Hualien from Kobe, the ship then continued to Kaohsiung.

Every cruiseship call, wherever it might be in the world, brings millions of dollars in revenue, whether it is from port fees, chandlering or more pertinently tourist dollars and so it is unsurprising to see just about every major port city in Greater China offering financial temptations to cruiselines to call. Take Qingdao, for instance.

Depending on tourist numbers, RMB10,000 to RMB30,000 is on offer per voyage while travel agents can enjoy a bonus of RMB5 per tourist per day if they can attract more than 8,000 foreign tourists to the Shandong city in the low travel season.

Elsewhere, in Xiamen, which due to its proximity to Taiwan is pushing hard to position itself as China’s top cruise hub, any company that can attract international cruise lines to call there will receive RMB10,000 per voyage. For international cruiselines which take Xiamen as a homeport for two consecutive years there’s a rather tempting RMB1m carrot on offer.

At the southern tip of the nation on the island of Hainan, meanwhile, the travel agent who arranges international luxury cruiseships to call at Haikou will get RMB30,000 reward per voyage. As with so much else in the world’s most populous nation, money talks.

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Don’t be kept in the dark

China’s cruise industry is the fastest growing in the world

Launching at Cruise Shipping Miami

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

King of cruise Huang Weijian, China’s first cruiseship owner, speaks exclusively to SinoShip on plans to own up to six ships

China will be the largest cruise market in the future

A

lready a multi-millionaire before he had reached the age of 40, tycoon Huang Weijian cast around for new investment areas. He was looking for a nascent industry in China, one without domestic competition, but with strong growth potential, something that could tap into the fast emerging middle classes across China, a generation like no other in the nation’s history, with money to spend.

The cruise shipping market ticked these boxes perfectly. Huang made his audacious move last September, his new vehicle China Cruises Company acquiring the 1992-built luxury catamaran cruise vessel, Asia Star, subsequently renamed China Star, from Macau gambling tycoon Stanley Ho for $45m. With this purchase Huang, who described the price at the time as “really cheap”, has become China’s very first cruiseship owner.

Ever the opportunist, Huang made his first pot of gold while studying at Harbin Institute of Technology 20 years ago when he started trading with neighbouring Russia, which was just transforming

post-USSR. Since then he has been involved in software, road construction, aquaculture, tourism and land reclamation.

For Huang, the cruise investment was a no-brainer. “This is a blank field in China’s marine industry,” the Wenzhou native tells SinoShip. The number of Chinese cruise goers has swelled from 200,000 a year to 780,000 a year in less than four years, he states, noting also that last year the number of homeporting calls overtook transit calls for the first time.

“I can say China will be the largest cruise market in the future,” Huang says confidently.

Huang’s decision to move into the sector was also buoyed by both central and local government support — the province of Zhejiang spending big at the moment to harness its marine economy.

What Huang is aware of as a pioneer in this sector are the challenges that come from being on his own — China’s cruise policies are “incomplete”, he says, while the whole cruise supply chain from the development of homeports, to

supplies, to entertainment all needs serious development.

“China Star will target high-end business people. It will be a high-end club of business, leisure and entertainment,” says Huang. A series of Chinese characteristics will also be shown on each voyage, especially the Ouyue culture which is the traditional Zhejiang culture. As well as providing western food on the cruise, there’ll be snacks from Wenzhou.

Many cruises have inside staterooms, but the catamaran has been refitted so that all the rooms have an ocean view with 24 sq m easily fitting two people comfortably.

According to current route planning, in May trips launched from Zhoushan, Shanghai, Xiamen, Tianjin and Shenzhen to Taiwan, Okinawa in Japan, Jeju in South Korea and Halong Bay in Vietnam.

For Huang China Star is just the start — or Phase I — of a cruise constellation.

Phase II, he reveals to SinoShip, will see up to RMB1.5bn spent on the acquisition of four or five more ships to make China’s first dedicated ocean going cruise fleet and dramatically spread its route network. A listing in Hong Kong is also on the cards.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

China Cruises Founded last year in Hong Kong by Wenzhou tycoon Huang Weijian. Bought 1992-built Asia Star from Stanley Ho in September to become mainland China’s first cruiseship owner. First cruise was in March following retrofit. Intends to spend up to RMB1.5bn more on acquiring another four to five cruise vessels.

Sinoship Summer 2012

19

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Oil imperatives

As China looks to up its energy security, Mao Shijia from Dalian’s Haichang Group explains plans to expand his tanker fleets

F

ew Chinese nationals have been more open and forthcoming than Mao Shijia about the ideal oil supply chain scenario from a Beijing perspective. As general manager of state-run China Shipping Development back in 2009 at an industry gathering in Shanghai it was Mao who sent ripples and shivers among international tanker owners.

Not only did Mao call for a Chinese VLCC pool, he went as far as urging for the coming together of the big three state-owned oil conglomerates and the big three stateowned shipping firms.

It has not happened yet, but continues to give shipowners around the world restless nights. Just this spring the issue was raised again by He Yongjian, deputy director of the department of development planning of the National Energy Administration, who called for state-run transport firms, refineries and insurers to come together for a more integrated shipping system to ensure energy security.

Up to 90% of China’s crude oil imports are transported by sea, a situation that leaves it exposed to changing international conditions, said He. China imported more than 260m tons of crude oil in 2011, taking its external dependency rate to 56.5% — in excess of the international ‘warning line’ of

50%. He estimated that the figure will surpass 65% by the end of 2015.

As for Mao, he left China Shipping last year to join Dalian’s Haichang Group as president of two of the giant conglomerate’s shipping subsidiaries, Feiyue Logistics Development and Dalian Ruihai Petrochemical Shipping Co.

We are trying to develop international trades Starting as a petrochemical trader in the northeast port city 20 years ago Haichang, which literally translates as Sea Fortune, has since diversified massively to spread across the nation and enter shipowning, real estate, tourism, golf courses and plenty more besides. It has struck up transport deals with both Sinopec and PetroChina that are the envy of many other oil transport firms. At one point Haichang could lay claim to being the largest private VLCC owner in the People’s Republic, although its fleet mix has changed a great deal in the past four years. Despite the diversification, today oil and petrochemicals remain the pillar industries of the Haichang Group.

Talking about the future of China oil trades, now that he works for a private firm, Mao is still bullish on prospects. “There is still a wide market in China, as various industrial projects are developing fast in China, the China demand for energy is increasing on a daily basis,” he says from Shanghai.

Oil imports continue to grow each year, he says, and if the market can be described as “sluggish” last year, Mao reckons a recovery is due in 2012. “It cannot be worse than last year,” he insists.

Currently Haichang operates one VLCC, three product oil tankers and three chemical tankers, which provide a total capacity of nearly 500,000 dwt. After a period of contraction, Haichang is now undergoing an expansion. There are two product oil tankers and one chemical tanker under construction.

The financing for the fleet development is “quite flexible” according to Mao. Typically in-house financing accounts for 20 to 30% of any newbuild with the rest coming from financial leasing and industrial funds.

Further changes are afoot for the Haichang fleet. “Recently we are considering restructuring some of our shipping businesses to meet changing market trends,” Mao says, adding: “We hope we can adjust our business portfolio and maybe invest in different ship types at an appropriate time. Currently our main business mostly focuses on domestic trade, and we are trying to develop the international trade market, but we need to consider the market demand carefully.”

Developing that international trade will help keep the planners in Beijing happy about their overextended energy supply chains.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Haichang Group Founded 20 years ago in Dalian as a petrochemicals trader, Haichang has since diversified into real estate and tourism.

Undergoing a fleet expansion program now after four years of contraction the shipping subsidiary owns one VLCC, three product tankers, three chemical tankers and has three more ships on order. Eyeing greater international exposure.

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■ ■ ■ Profile

Towards a million tonnes Wang Deming, president of Qingdao Zhenghe Shipping, will shortly place landmark orders which will see his fleet hit seven digits, tonnes-wise, in its 20th year of existence

A

lthough the head of a private concern, Wang Deming is a vocal supporter of greater government intervention in Chinese shipping and shipbuilding. The boss of Qingdao Zhenghe Shipping has made calls for Beijing to control the overall newbuilding market, restrict it if necessary, and plan more precisely the actual size needed for the domestic coastal fleet, while also offering more ship finance options. On top of that Wang wants far more old ships phased out. More than one in three Chinese ships are over the age of 25.

Wang runs Zhenghe with his sister, Wang Shuping, she as chairman and him as president. Founded in 1993, the company has since sprawled to buy out another Qingdao shipping line in 2007 and also enter shipbuilding and ship repair in Zhoushan via a sister firm.

The Zhenghe fleet will reach 900,000 dwt this year and Wang reveals to SinoShip that he is very close to inking a contract for the construction of environmentally friendly 37,000 dwt and 67,000 dwt bulk carriers which would see this Shandong firm crack the 1m dwt mark in its 20th year of existence.

In the fleet at present are 24 ships, including panamax bulkers, multipurpose ships and containerships. The medium term business plan calls for the fleet to grow to 1.8m dwt by 2015, with capesizes on the cards.

Like Dalian’s Haichang Group, profiled on the page before, Zhenghe has progressed from its domestic roots to international

Carrying coal to Indonesia is one of our bigger businesses now 22

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routes, a focus that continues to grow.

“Carrying coal to Indonesia is one of our bigger businesses now,” says Wang, who points out that over half a million dwt of his fleet is now deployed on international sailings.

Zhenghe has ridden the recession pretty well, having secured long term charters for most of its fleet prior to the downfall of the Baltic Dry Index.

“Due to the fact our ships are all chartered out, we have not been affected badly from the unpleasant market. The profits and the performance of the company are comparatively stable,” says Wang.

Over at Zhejiang Zhenghe Shipbuilding, meanwhile, things are not quite so rosy.

Zhejiang province has been the hardest hit area in the shipbuilding downturn with local media recently reporting around 80% of shipyards in the province have either suspended production or are operating at half their capacity. It’s not quite that bad at Zhenghe’s yard, but these are worrisome times. The yard has an orderbook of 17 vessels, of which as many as 13 will deliver this year. The company set up a design institute in Qingdao recently to develop new products including multi-purpose vessels and energy efficient ships. Zhenghe has

employed a Japanese design firm to help out and thus far RMB20m has been spent on research.

The yard’s general manager, Xu Caizhong, was quoted in April in the national media, urging Beijing for more funds for shipbuilding in general, and specifically saying RMB200m in aid to his yard would be very handy now.

Government intervention, whether you are a private or public concern in China, can be the difference between success and failure.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Zhenghe Shipping Started out in Qingdao in 1993 as small domestic coastal bulker concern. Bought out a local shipping line in 2007, and has shipbuilding and repair facilities in Zhoushan. Fleet now more deployed internationally and will hit 900,000 dwt by year-end. Run by brother and sister, Wang Deming and Wang Shuping.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Taking the plunge U-Ming placed a rare order for capesizes this February. President C K Ong explains the rationale behind the trip to Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding

A

lways a canny operator during a downturn Taiwan’s U-Ming Marine Transport Corp placed a rare order for capesizes in China in February, signing for four firm 186,300 dwt bulkers at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding plus six on option.

Each ship comes in at $49.83m, a significant drop in prices where many believe $55m is the breakeven point for capes.

U-Ming president C K Ong says: “The acceleration in demolition and the slowdown in newbuildings will ease the present oversupply situation in the bulk shipping market. U-Ming regards the gloomy shipping outlook in 2012 as a good opportunity for it to embark on vessel orders at very competitive prices.”

Newbuild prices shouldn’t drop any further in the short term The orders fall into U-Ming’s overall vessel replacement scheme and will help to reduce the fleet’s average age, which currently stands at 15 years. The ships will be managed by U-Ming’s Singapore shipowning subsidiary.

The ships will be delivered in 2014 and 2015, by which time Ong, a Singaporean national, reckons the market will be in an upswing.

“Currently the market is oversupplied,” Ong admits. “Bulk freight rates are facing tremendous pressure. The situation might continue in to 2013 and 2014.

The acceleration of dismantling old vessels is expected to improve the supplydemand imbalance, with freight rates expected to go up after 2014.”

The price for the newbuilds was competitive, and Ong reckons there is little leeway for yards to drop prices much further.

International shipbuilding steel plate prices are still at a high level, he notes, while they have dropped slightly in China, but raw material iron ore prices

remain high, and shipbuilding salaries continued to raise, “so newbuild prices shouldn’t drop any further in the short term,” he reckons.

U-Ming now has a fleet of 31 ships plus eight firm vessels on order. Its diverse bulk fleet includes capesizes, panamaxes, post-panamxes, supramaxes and cement carriers, while it also has one VLCC. Further tanker orders are deemed likely in the not too distant future. In July 2010 U-Ming set up joint venture Global Energy Maritime Co with the island’s energy giant CPC and Chinese Maritime Transport. CPC at the time suggested eventual goals would be to own 35 VLCCs. Even for U-Ming, one of the more wily operators in the region, the downturn is knocking its figures. Net profits fell sharply to NT$2.7bn ($91.3m) in 2011,

down 59.1% from 2010. Moreover, operating losses almost tripled to NT$$68.3m ($2.3m) in the first quarter of this year, compared to the same period in 2011.

NEED TO KNOW

NEED TO KNOW U-Ming Taipei-headquartered U-Ming Marine Transport Corp was founded in 1984 and listed locally in 1990. Chairman is Douglas Hsu and president is Singaporean national C K Ong. 31-strong fleet is made up of bulkers of all sizes plus seven cement carriers and one VLCC. Has eight firm ships on order.

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Scraping by Chief correspondent Katherine Si explains Beijing’s environmental thrust is making profits negligible for the nation’s scrap yards

T

here’s a big emphasis placed in the current five-year plan on growing and improving ship recycling in China. This focus is vital for two reasons: first, China’s insatiable demand for all forms of steel and secondly, the growth in recycling could provide alternative careers for many out-of-work shipbuilding workers.

Despite China’s considerable scrapping capabilities at present the demand shortage for scrapped metal stands at 10m tons a year, a figure that continues to rise.

The overcapacity in the global shipbuilding market is here to stay. Analysis

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by SinoShip suggests that come the end of 2013, nominal overcapacity in the dry bulk and oil tanker trades will stand at over 20%, with ever greater pressure for the world’s owners to get scrapping.

expected to be torched in greater numbers going forward.

“In the last few years, most of the ships the Chinese yards are scrapping are bulk carriers, and with the decline of the Baltic Dry Index, there will probably be more bulkers to be exterminated,” Xie Dehua, president of the China National Ship Recycling Association, tells SinoShip.

However, the malaise in shipping reaches far and wide. Container shipping, for instance, also suffers from severe overcapacity with French analysts, Alphaliner,

Shipping’s bid to present itself as green got lost in the red ink Chinese owners should be in a position to recycle more than most given that more than one in three Chinese ships is over the age of 25. Bulk carriers in particular are

suggesting the box fleet will grow 8.3% this year, and yet demand growth will only be 6.5%. Brokers Braemar Seascope say that 120,000 teu of ship capacity is slated to be

Ship Recycling ■ ■ ■

demolished in 2012, 50% more than in 2011.

“The ship recycling market is active in China at present. In addition, the ship scrap price is still strong, with the price in the last year is little higher, but it still remains lower than some other regions,” recycling boss Xie says.

Last year, China scrapped around 2m ldt, a figure that is likely to be replicated in 2012.

In the wake of 2008’s financial crisis a number of shipbuilding and repair yards bolted on recycling to their menu of business capabilities, but this move is no easy task, as Xie explains.

“The ship recycling capacity of China is moderate now. It is a fact that since 2008, some shipbuilding and repair yards stretched their business to ship recycling, however, it is clear that not every shipbuilding or repair yard could swiftly move into the ship recycling field easily and successfully. They are quite different, such as

requirements on safety, environment, ship scrap equipment, and the working place,” says Xie. Promoting their green credentials is seen as the essential priority for recyclers in China at the moment. To this end the State Council moved to weed out illegal recycling yards, mandating all ships must be taken apart at a pier or in-dock. With the Hong Kong convention coming into force, which mandates far more environmentally friendly dismantling of vessels, China is in a good position. Further green incentives and imperatives are expected to be announced

by Beijing soon.

Not everyone is enamoured with the government’s focus on greener, safer recycling places, however. A source at Tianjin Tianma Shipbreaking confides that the necessary upgrade in facilities has cost yards a great deal, and this comes at a time where the price of ships per ldt is high, leading the source to suggest that profits this year will be minimal at best.

Nevertheless, there are a rash of new scrap sites about to open. Recently, China’s Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co (DSIC), Angang Steel and Singapore’s Pacific International Lines (PIL) had a groundbreaking ceremony for their joint venture giant shipbreaking complex in Changxing Island, Dalian.

The jv is owned 67% by DSIC, 18% by PIL and 15% by Angang, with an annual capacity of 75 vessels sized from 50,000 dwt to 300,000 dwt making it arguably the largest facility of its kind in the world spread over 1m sq m. On top of that, the RMB3bn yard will also focus on repair, being able to handle up to 90 ships a year.

Just as the Dalian venture gets underway, details of another big facility have been revealed.

Zhoushan Changhong International Industry Park will build what is claims will be the world’s largest ship recycling yard soon.

The second phase project will cost around RMB3bn with an 1,800 m shoreline and two giant drydocks, one 610 m long and the other 450 m.

Once fully operational the facility will be able to handle up to 1.5m ldt a year, and the site will also use this metal to build and repair ships.

“China seems to be a long-term player in this industry, and we constantly see improvements at yards and also new yards being established,” comments Petter Heier, the ceo of China recycling specialists Grieg Green.

Grieg Green Norway’s Grieg Green was established two years ago to provide owners with a one-stop shop to help them recycle in China, home to the world’s most environmentally friendly scrap sites. Yards are vetted, prices gauged and Grieg Green takes care of the final rights of ships from around the world. The problem has been the downturn; shipping’s bid to present itself as green got lost in the red ink.

Grieg Green’s ceo Petter Heier admits to SinoShip, “Our growth has been less than expected which is mainly due to the poor freight market and the financially stressed situation of many owners.”

Speaking frankly, Heier says, “It is very common to downgrade environmental efforts due to a poor financial situation.”

He adds: “Several owners, pretending to be green, have cut corners when it comes to the recycling of their vessels and the associated processes.”

Rates have traditionaly been lower in China compared to the Indian sub-continent. But there are many factors influencing the decision for the final destination of a vessel. The last port of discharge is one major factor, as for vessels up to a certain size it would not make financial sense to ballast the vessel to the subcontinent if the last port is in China. But there is also another major factor as seen from Grieg Green’s point of view, which is the performance and risk minimisation. With performance Grieg means that the recycling process is handled in a very controlled matter with regards to safety and the environment. Most of the yards in China have an infrastructure and procedures enabling this higher performance.

There is also less risk for an owner delivering the vessel to a Chinese yard with regards to potential financial dispute, Heier says.

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Roping in the best Chinese Sam Chambers speaks to leading global shipmanagers on key issues relating to Chinese manning

T

he crewing crunch worldwide continues to be an issue.

China is not necessarily the answer to this shortage as so many cadets are needed to man the vast number of new Chinese ships. Agree or disagree?

26

www.Sinoship.org

Broadly speaking our panel of international shipmanagers, who collectively look after more than 2,000 ships across the globe, agreed with our opening statement.

Bjorn Hojgaard, ceo of Hong Kong’s Univan Ship Management, while noting that China’s merchant fleet is now the

third largest in the world, looks at the huge volume of new ships coming from the yards and warns: “The new tonnage has widened the gap between supply and demand, there are not enough qualified seafarers being produced to fill in this gap.”

With the booming economy seafarers are

Crewing ■ ■ ■

China can compete with the best in the world most of the supply for a long time to come.

“The number of Chinese seafarers must grow and so the number of cadets will also need to grow,” explains Simon Frank, director, fleet personnel at Wallem Shipmanagement. Before the numbers of quality Chinese officers can increase, Frank suggests, there must be an increase in cadets as the first step in growing the pool of quality Chinese seafarers.

Rajaish Bajpaee, ceo of Bernhard Schulte, maintains, “China is not necessarily the answer and neither is any other nationality.”

The real challenge today, Hong Kongbased Bajpaee asserts, is rather of the different training standards and educational systems in the countries of crew supply which have a major impact on the basic skills in cadets at the entry level. The concern with the output of graduates from the maritime academies in different countries is actually about quality, not numbers.

Bernhard Schulte has about 450 Chinese crew with double-digit growth in recent years.

Crew members are all screened and recruited by the company’s crew service centre.

What are the strengths of Chinese crews?

seafarers taking up lucrative shore assignments after a few years of sailing, he says . Further, with growing demand for seafarers in domestic services local owners have hiked up wages sending them on an upward trend almost matching the competition making foreign owners move to other

emerging markets.

Carsten Ostenfeldt, md of Thome Ship Management, agrees too, saying it will be “a long time” before Chinese seafarers can genuinely plug the gap in the international merchant fleet as the demand for Chinese seafarers on Chinese ships is going to take up

In general our panellists like the hard working nature of Chinese crews, and with world trade being as it is, Sino-skewed, having local people onboard is valuable in calling at Chinese ports.

“With the right levels and standards of training and education, crews from China can compete with the best in the world,” reckons Thome’s Ostenfeldt. They demonstrate good leadership skills, are hard-working and adaptable, he says.

Wallem’s Frank cites lower costs, while also suggesting they show a great commitment toward a maritime career, which is of benefit to companies looking for long term employees and consistency of seafarers on their ships.

Univan’s Hojgaard appreciates how cooperative, sincere and obedient Chinese seafarers can be, while also observing that they work well as a team if the ship is fully manned by Chinese. Univan has its own representative office in Dalian and has around 200 active Chinese seafarers.

Surely the greatest strength of the Chinese, argues Vijay Rangroo, boss of MTM Sinoship Summer 2012

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Shipmanagement, is in their numbers. “The large population of educated youth can provide a good recruitment base,” he says.

What are the weaknesses of Chinese crews?

Repeatedly, our polled managers centred their answers here to two things — language and attitude. MTM’s Rangroo is forthright on the topic, saying: “Their weakness is the attitude towards safety and compliance.”

Univan’s Hojgaard explains about the rigid mental issues faced with hiring PRC seafarers. “As Chinese crew consider themselves to be technically sound and smart,” he says, “there have been instances where there was reluctance to follow orders due to rigid thought processes. Most Chinese crew have below average English skills. The safety culture is not followed properly by the ratings and paper work is poor.”

Wallem’s Frank has issues with the “commercial acumen” of senior deck and engine officers, which needs sharpening. Wallem’s in-house training at its centre in Qingdao includes commercial awareness and efficiencies on board.

The Wallem Maritime Training Centre in Qingdao provides its seafarers with valueadded training, and its joint venture ship management company COSCO Wallem Shipmanagement is also based in Qingdao.

About a third of Wallem’s seafarers are Chinese, approximately 3,000 people. This has grown in the past five years from 500.

China is getting richer. Is this having a noticeable effect on the numbers of applicants signing up for a career at sea?

It is a natural trend or consequence that when a nation is getting richer with more varieties and choices of job opportunities available out there in the market, seafaring will become less attractive a career for young people, says Rajaish Bajpaee, due to the following factors: the risk involved in the job; the long time being away from family; and the sea profession being invisible to the public.

But, reckons Bajpaee, given the size of population in China and that a lot of places are still in the early stage of economic development compared to the major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, the number crunch of Chinese crew in the foreseeable future is less of an immediate concern. Furthermore, with the government’s

initiative of developing China — mainly Shanghai — as an international maritime centre, there will be plenty of attractive shoreside maritime jobs in the offing.

“Due to the shipping image problem and with most families having a single child, the number of new applicants joining the merchant shipping stream seems to have dropped,” admits Hojgaard. There is also a noticeable drain of Chinese senior officers with sailing experience preferring to stay ashore instead of sailing.

Conversely, Thome’s Ostenfeldt reckons a job at sea will continue to be an attractive job for Chinese people going forward.

How are levels of English improving among Chinese crews?

This topic has long been cited as the Achilles’ Heel of Chinese crews. And generally speaking, it remains an issue.

“Language remains a big issue; the standard of basic English needs to be improved,” says Ostenfeldt from Thome.

“Constant training is the need of the hour for overall improvement,” says Hojgaard.

What could the Chinese government do to make its seafarers more attractive to international owners and managers?

Anglo-Eastern ceo Peter Cremers is quick to seize upon this question demanding that the government allow a level playing field with domestic companies and also allow direct recruitment by overseas companies giving international firms greater involvement in selection. “ More training needs to be imparted at all levels,” Cremers adds. Anglo-Eastern has representatives in Shanghai and Guangzhou and has more than 500 Chinese crew serving on more than 25 ships.

To boost this training as Cremers demands, Bernhard Schulte’s Bajpaee suggests the further development of modern maritime training centres in collaboration with reputable international institutions will certainly help to improve the skills of the Chinese seafarers wherever there are shortfalls and so to improve their attractiveness. Like Cremers, Bajpaee sees that the opening up of the manning agency business to foreigners in China is critical in attracting international owners and managers to use Chinese seafarers who are willing in invest

Their weakness is the attitude towards safety and compliance 28

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Recruitment master Faststream Recruitment’s MD for Asia, Mark Robertshaw, says pent-up demand for Chinese crews shows no sign of abating. They are already one of the top five sources of seafarers globally, with a heavy accent on ratings and junior ranks.

“Chinese maritime colleges are beginning to ramp up training to get officers through the ranks quickly in order to meet demand, and shipowners will need to be committed to giving these officers related sea time to ensure they are armed with practical experience,” says Robertshaw.

Because of the talent pool being concentrated in certain provinces and towns in China there is loyalty to fellow locals to sail within the same fleet or vessel, and that usually refers to vessels owned by Chinese shipowners, says Robertshaw. What this means is that outside of the domestic market, shipowners without a handle or man on the ground in China by way of manning agencies will lose out on entrenching a pool of Chinese seafarers.

in them as long as they can directly employ, develop, and retain the people by themselves as their long term assets.

Univan’s Hojgaard applauds moves by Beijing to reduce taxation on seafarers while joining the rallying call for government to issue manning licenses to international players.

Wallem’s Frank warns that any educational facilities must also take Maritime Labour Convention into consideration.

Then there is the bureaucracy, something Ostenfeldt from Singapore’s Thome touches upon. “We believe the Chinese government can help seafarers more by making visa and paperwork easier ; it is still quite hard to get seafarers in and out of China very easily and this includes Chinese seafarers but we hope the situation will improve soon,” he concludes.

■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Shipbuilders join China rush In Seoul Sam Chambers finds out how the big Korean yards are all wary of China, but also investors in the PRC

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hipbuilding is essentially factory work on a large scale and so inevitably demographics ensure a handing over the baton from time to time as one nation’s populace become too expensive. It’s happened from Europe to Japan to South Korea and now the blowtorch has just about been passed onto the People’s Republic.

However, South Korea is not giving in quietly — its rapid transformation of leading yards to occupy the offshore and LNG space allowed it last year to retake the top shipbuilding crown that it had lost in 2010.

The fact is, however, that South Korean yards will continue to lose market share to the vast array of Chinese builders in the coming years — price, population and politics all point to eventual Chinese domination, even in the high-tech offshore sector where dramatic inroads are being made by Chinese yards in the past couple of years (see page 9).

However, the top Korean yards have been smart enough to recognise this groundswell and they are now all entrenched in China themselves with yards of varying size.

Many Korean ventures started out as small parts of the shipbuilding supply chain, providing cheap blocks to ship over to Korea.

Koreans, like many foreigners, were wary of old Beijing legislation that barred overseas firms from having majority stakes in Chinese shipyards. When this legislation was reversed just over two years ago more Koreans flocked to cheaper China. Now all the four big names in Korean shipbuilding have established footholds in the People’s Republic.

Yantai-based Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (Shandong), also known as DSSC, a subsidiary of Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine

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Engineering (DSME), is a good example of this evolution. What had started out as a block builder changed in March of 2011 when it won its first ship orders. It has booked a number of 58,000 dwt bulkers which started delivering this year.

“We will look to expand our product mix to add some mid-sized tankers soon,” a spokesperson in Yantai tells SinoShip.

Samsung Heavy Industries, meanwhile, has not had quite so much luck in its switching from blocks to ships. It has two block building sites in China, one in Ningbo and the other in the Yangzte river delta.

It made tentative steps to offer mid-sized bulkers and tankers around two years ago, though it did not market the move heavily, and thus far has not been rewarded with a debut vessel order.

“We continue to be busy with blocks and general equipment production,” says a source in Ningbo, “if a ship order were to come, then good, but we have plenty to be doing in the meantime and the market for newbuilds is still quiet. We are, however, very much open for business.”

To the north lies Qingdao Hyundai Shipbuilding (QHS). The yard was founded as a joint venture involving Hyundai Corporation in 2005. When this company ran into financial difficulties a couple of years ago, Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), which confusingly is not related to Hyundai

220.6

BILLION US dollars Two-way trade between China and South Korea last year

Corporation, stepped in to take over the yard in February 2010. The shipyard, minute in comparison to HHI’s ten-dock facility in Ulsan, Korea, focuses on small multipurpose vessels and product carriers and has racked up a sizeable orderbook.

All these shipyards mentioned thus far are small in size, offering ship types that their bigger Korean parents would not deign to build on home soil as they are too small, yet provide an alternative, niche source of income. In the far north, however, is the biggest Korean investment by far.

Located on Changxing Island, and stretched over 5.5m sq m of space is STX Dalian, which by area alone can lay claim to being the largest shipyard in the world, also can boast one of the world’s biggest

Korea in China ■ ■ ■

A STAR IS BORN Another 58,000 dwt bulker is delivered from STX Dalian drydocks and 5km of quayside. The yard, which started in 2008, builds bulkers, car carriers, product carriers and has latterly taken orders for small boxships too as well as furnishing STX’s Korean yard with blocks and engines.

“STX will continue to develop its yards with a policy of Korea taking the high-tech orders and Dalian producing greater numbers of more basic ship types,” explains an STX employee in Seoul.

The Koreans’ canny investments overseas, especially in China, have allowed them to transform their own yards at home so that they can focus on higher value ships and offshore. Once the markets finally rebound, expect to see Koreans up their infrastructure in China.

Free trade deal In mid-May China and South Korea started official talks on a free trade deal, something that has been on the cards for around seven years.

China, which has a GDP of US$7.3trn, is the world’s second-largest economy and South Korea’s top trading partner, a quick feat given that official diplomatic relations between these two nations did not start until 1992. South Korea is China’s third-largest trade partner.

Two-way trade reached $220.6bn in 2011, far exceeding $100.8bn Korea deals with the United States and $103.1bn for the EU. Moreover, two-way trade is expected to reach $300bn by 2015 “Now we’re entering the difficult road of negotiations,” South Korea’s Minister for Trade Bark Tae-ho said at a news conference in Beijing in early May after meeting with Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming. “The several years of preparations go to show that the negotiations for a free trade deal between South Korea and China won’t always be easy.”

The deal if agreed could boost South Korea’s overall exports by as much as 5.5% and China’s exports by nearly 4%, a joint study by the two governments showed.

Meanwhile, Japan, Korea and China are now in discussions to create an ASEAN-style free-trade area for northeast Asia.

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■ ■ ■ HUBS: SHANGHAI

Blurred 2020 vision Shanghai correspondent Paul French eyes the problems facing the city’s ambitions to be an international maritime and finance centre within eight years

FUTURE HAZE Shanghai’s plans are none too clear Shanghai has long harboured a strong desire to be both an international financial centre (IFC) and a global maritime hub. This desire has been an objective held at the highest level of the local Communist Party and, while Shanghai is clearly one of the world’s leading container ports, it has not yet managed to become a wholly rounded maritime centre in terms of ship insurance and other services. Meanwhile, Shanghai is far from being an IFC. Shanghai has finally understood that being a global maritime centre is about more than moving metal containers.

Shanghai’s continued weakness is shipping services — financing, leasing, insurance, accounting, legal affairs and personnel training all remain weak by international standards. That said, many service providers are flocking: ABN AMRO, Transas Marine and Larsen & Tourbo are some of the many names since our last issue was printed.

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A second problem facing Shanghai is that it has failed to keep pace environmentally with other global maritime centres — carbon emissions remain high as do overall costs due to inefficient and laggard bureaucracy at the port.

The creation of the Shanghai Pudong

efficiency are not the government’s key skills.

Some streamlining is occurring with innovations such as more efficient online transactions for domestic container rates replacing floor-traded prices. Additionally the establishment of a shipping finance committee by the Shanghai

It’s the variety of transactions, trading tools and trading systems in place that make an IFC International Shipping Service Centre in 2011 is designed in part to address these issues of weak services provision and bureaucratic inertia. However, breaking down these walls is tricky when most, if not all, the core elements of the centre are effectively government-controlled departments — for instance, the Shanghai Maritime Bureau and the Shanghai Court of International Shipping Arbitration. Leanness and

Financial Industry Federation should help boost Shanghai’s pathetic share (a mere 1%) of the global shipping financing market. Most agree flexibility is key — in taxes, prices and costs. However, the retreat of big government from shipping (or anything else to be honest) in Shanghai is unlikely and will hamper many of these developments.

According to the World Bank an IFC is a centre from which international financial

business can be conducted profitably, easily and efficiently.

Beijing’s stated aim is to build Shanghai into an IFC by 2020.

Shanghai clearly is important — a major domestic bourse, financial futures exchange, gold exchange, offices for many local and foreign banks and a secondary HQ for the People’s Bank of China (China’s central bank).

So far Shanghai’s IFC strategy has rested on having a stock exchange, but this is not nearly enough. As Hong Kong demonstrates, as well as a bourse (and an international one as opposed to Shanghai’s domestic only one), it’s the variety of transactions, trading tools and trading systems in place that make an IFC. The renminbi is not freely convertible, Shanghai transactions portfolio is still confined to renminbi assets within China, and foreign currencies cannot be converted into renminbi to do transactions. This is a massive hurdle and, in China, the currency is a highly political issue. It is politics that is stopping the economics necessary to allow Shanghai to morph into an IFC. Similarly, it is politics that prevent the systems proliferating — without greater corporate transparency it is impossible to see Shanghai emerging as a true IFC anytime soon.

Finally, it’s also worth pointing out that Beijing might want to concentrate on place as well as policy and focus the country’s IFC aspirations on one location.

At the moment politicians and local boosters in Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Shenzhen and Chongqing are all allowed to claim to be aiming for IFC status. Clearly China cannot have five IFCs. Pick one and stick to it.

HUBS: TAIPEI ■ ■ ■

Port escalation Taipei correspondent Joshua Samuel Brown looks at the island’s rapidly changing terminal scene Over at SinoShip China Shipping Network, our fast growing Linked In page, one member was kind enough to thank us for providing details of the countless port developments in China, both along the coast and the nation’s rivers.

While China’s port developments do indeed continue to dazzle and confuse in their sheer quantity less reported is the increasing terminal infrastructure build up across the strait in Taiwan. Cargo volumes on the island are neglible compared to the mainland, the whole island posted container throughput, for instance, last year of 13.42m teu, equivalent, say, to the port of Qingdao’s figures. Nevertheless, plans are afoot to welcome plenty more cargo. And it comes at a good time, as the ports are unleashed as a unified corporation to be more competitive.

From March 1, the four harbour bureaus of Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung and Hualien formed Taiwan International Ports Corporation (TIPC) and the Maritime and Port Bureau.

The corporatised TIPC oversees the four ports while the consolidated port authority Maritime and Port Bureau continues to carry out the regulatory and policy works of the respective bureaus.

“The corporation merges together all of Taiwan’s international commercial ports in order to raise port competitiveness, pool development resources, and invest in overseas port business opportunities,” a release from Kaohsiung states, adding: “The birth of TIPC signals the start of a new era for Taiwan’s maritime sector.

TIPC will effectively integrate the resources, advantages and functions of its four subsidiary ports into a single coordinated

CLEARER FUTURE Ports such as Kaohsiung have been given a proper mandate operations platform. This platform will efficiently distribute tasks and business while facilitating coordinated responses to external competitive challenges.”

In a change of policy the ports will now look beyond handled volume statistics to consider the economic value created by handled goods. Value and volume together will direct TIPC’s business strategy. Efforts to grow handled value centre on expanding free trade zone (FTZ) functions at the four ports.

Moreover, rather than all chasing the same cargoes the ports going forward will have greater niches: Keelung’s will be cruise for example, while Taichung will focus more on automobiles with the number one port, Kaohsiung focusing hard on sharpening up its regional box transhipment credentials.

The island’s ports have been groaning at near full capacity for a few years. Kaohsiung posted a three-year high container throughput in 2011 following the opening of its new International Terminal Container Center in January last year.

Kaohsiung’s throughput grew to 9.64m teu in 2011 compared to 9.18m teu in 2010.

Despite the growth in volumes, Kaohsiung has a maximum handling capacity of 10m teu a year, pushing the port to embark on a bold reform strategy to avoid stagnation and to attract investments from international port operators.

Meanwhile, Taichung and Taipei ports recorded historic highs of 1.38m teu and 650,000 teu of box throughput last year.

Keelung port, however, registered a 0.8% decline in throughput to 1.75m teu.

year. With Maersk vacating its berths there for Xiamen, some good tidings came Kaohsiung’s way recently with news that Cosco and Japan’s Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line) are in discussions to lease the sixth terminal. Were these discussions to prove successful it would mark the first mainland port investment in Taiwan.

Similarly TIPC, now as a bona fide port operator, has ambitions to invest in second tier ports in southern China.

The Port of Taipei, meanwhile, is busy with a $558m expansion that will run through

Rather than all chasing the same cargoes the ports, going forward, will have greater niches Kaohsiung has been dredging its fourth terminal to ensure ships above 10,000 teu can call there. A similar exercise is likely to take place at the third terminal. Work on International Container Terminal (ICT) Phase Two and the Nanxing Project is expected to accelerate at Kaohsiung this

2017. The port only came into existence in 2009, with the opening of a 1.1m teu deepwater boxport.

The Port of Keelung’s expansion features a 48-hectare container terminal, a 123-hectare offshore storage zone and another container terminal covering a further 123 hectares.

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HUBS: HONG KONG ■ ■ ■

OPTIMISTIC New chief executive has considerable grounding in what HK needs to do maritime-wise

New era, better times?

Hong Kong correspondent Alfred Romann polls key shipping officials about what to expect with the new leadership of CY Leung Facing more competition from ports in mainland China, challenges from double taxation, a sprint for a stronger Fair Winds Charter and a potentially challenging anti-competition law, Hong Kong’s shipping and maritime industries are getting ready for a new chief executive.

Incoming new head Leung Chun-ying (generally known as CY Leung) brings with him closer links to the shipping industry than the previous administration, links that may filter down to the bureaucracy and help it work with the industry, says Arthur Bowring, managing director of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association.

“He knows us, which is refreshing. Whether he will do anything that will assist us remains to be seen,” says Bowring.

In its last budget, the Hong Kong government included some money and incentives that would benefit the industry.

Although Hong Kong is already a very friendly location for it, there are some issues the industry

would like to see addressed.

Top of the list for Bowring are double taxation agreements — which impact staffing at most shipping companies — and some kind of legislative framework for the voluntary Fair Winds Charter, through which the industry commits to using low-sulphur fuel, at a cost to the industry of up to US$3m per year.

concern for Leung, says Zhou Fang, assistant chief research officer at OCTS Institute, who also noted that Leung was involved in the creation of a Maritime Law Centre in 2010 while chairman of the council of City University in Hong Kong.

“He is very keen to transform the maritime and shipping industry in Hong Kong,” says

Hong Kong’s relative competitiveness is dropping As chairman of the One Country Two Systems (OCTS) Institute, Leung has had some involvement on at least two research reports on the development of Hong Kong as an international maritime centre.

According to the institute the rate of growth of container throughput in Hong Kong has declined significantly in recent years and “it is highly imperative to transform and upgrade Hong Kong’s maritime industry”.

This is an area of particular

Zhou. “He wants to turn the city into a maritime services centre.”

This would mean expanding the range and depth of services available including ship registration and finance, insurance and other services.

Hong Kong’s Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng was not available for an interview but a spokesperson noted that the department would “continue to work closely with the maritime and port industries” towards the goal of

“strengthening our position as an international maritime centre and world-class port”.

These are increasingly difficult times for the local industry, which is facing much more intense competition. As ports in other cities and particularly in mainland China become more competitive and efficient Hong Kong’s own relative competitiveness is dropping, maintains Roberto Giannetta, secretary of the Hong Kong Liner Shipping Association.

Giannetta does not expect to see any changes in the way the government and the industry relate after Leung takes over but good relations between the government and the maritime industry will be useful over the next couple of years. Not only would these relations help push Fair Winds forward but they may also limit the potential impact of anti-competition legislation that has been in the works for a couple of years.

Most cargo in and out of Hong Kong moves with the help of agreements between multiple companies.

“Under a strict interpretation, the law could impact the shipping industry,” says Giannetta.

“These agreements and alliances would be illegal under the law.”

Jurisdictions with anticompetition legislation include exemptions for the shipping industry. Such places include the likes of Singapore, Japan or the UK. Should the proposed legislation be completed by June, when the terms of the current Legislative Council end, it could take effect over the next 18 to 24 months. The current legislation does allow for exemptions for specific industries, if those industries make the right case.

The stakes are quite high because, under the proposed bill, the maximum penalty for companies that fall foul of the law would be as high as 10% of worldwide revenue, which could amount to about 20 times the amount of business individual companies do in Hong Kong.

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■ ■ ■ BOOKS

Kinks in the path Paul French picks apart one book on the end of cheap China, while lauding another more analytical work Long lead times are the biggest problem the book industry faces — from the moment an author puts pen to paper (or fingers to keypad) it can be a long time till a book eventually reaches your local bookshop or e-reader. So inevitably books appear that might well have been highly original ideas when first conceived but by the time you pick them up at the airport bookstore are pretty obvious and well rehearsed.

Shaun Rein’s The End of Cheap China has suffered from this problem of publishing.

Rein, a Shanghai-based market researcher, outlines how cost structures are evolving in China and generally rising. Labour rates, land costs and rents, commodities -- all ultimately meaning higher unit costs for products made in China and shipped to America and Europe.

meaning China’s new middle class may be getting squeezed even before they’ve had a chance to really flex their consumption muscles. Rein also overlooks key factors mitigating against China’s growth right now, especially the end of the country’s demographic ‘sweet spot’ of the last 30 years and the rapidly aging society; a process accentuated by the one-child policy since the 1970s.

The End of Cheap China is a little too heavy on anecdote and light on rigorous analysis, but that’s the author’s style. Of course those in the shipping and logistics business know the answer to the end of cheap China — just keep on moving — India, Bangladesh, Burma, Vietnam. A book entitled The Rise of Cheap Asia (ex-China) might be more useful at the moment.

Chinese household savings are subsidising cheap lending to corporations Rein outlines some of the reasons why, including wage demands, and argues that rising disposable income will offer opportunities to foreign brands looking to sell into China. He rather neglects the possibility that living costs may well outstrip wage growth (and are already in some sectors) 36

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Where Rein prefers anecdote to analysis, veteran China watcher Nicholas Lardy is heavily analytical, yet still readable. Lardy argues that China’s “imbalances” stem from two problems — the RMB exchange rate (a salient factor of Chinese economic life Rein dismisses completely) and domestic

interest rates (or rather the lack of them). His argument is relatively simple — continue liberalising the RMB and unshackle interest rates. China’s pathetically low interest rates mean an abundance of cheap lending (see, China is still cheap in some ways) but give regular depositors no returns to speak of — effectively Chinese household savings are subsidising cheap lending to corporations.

This is called “financial repression” and we saw it as part of the rapid growth programme in Korea, Taiwan and elsewhere.

However, Lardy argues, Beijing went further and deeper for longer with financial repression than anyone else and this has led to unparalleled income disparities in China. The side effects are not good for China’s long term development either — households make no interest on their savings so have to save more thus reducing their disposable income to boost consumption (unfortunately leaving nothing in the wallet for those American brands trying to benefit from a non-cheap China perhaps). And this situation will last for a long time, as depleted savings mean it’s harder for people to reach their pension and healthcare goals and with so much capital sloshing around cheaply for

corporations to borrow the tendency is to invest in capital intensive industries rather than labour intensive ones. So the money goes to mining and commodities extraction and, of course this being China, construction and property. Good for infrastructure; bad for innovation and creativity.

Lardy identifies that there is a cycle here of financial repression, dominated by interest rates and the RMB, that needs to be broken. Financial repression was a key policy of the Hu-Wen administration. But they’re out come October and the arch technocrat Xi Jinping is heir apparent. Loosening up the currency and interest rates could just be round the corner.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Catch them young If we want to have a healthy industry, we need to be able to attract top talent — and that means convincing people early that shipping is a worthwhile career, argues Bei Hong “If all else fails, you could always try teaching”. Those words came from my careers teacher at school a very, very long time ago. He was somebody who was never going to get a huge amount of respect from his pupils. We, after all, were about to go forth and conquer the world, how could someone who had never really experienced anything but the confines of academia give us guidance on where we should find our fortunes? Shipping was certainly never mentioned as an industry which could provide a career. Like most people who end up in this game and don’t come from a family with a background in the business, I fell into it almost by accident.

Chatting to a group of young people who are about to leave school last month (and no, none of them were planning on a maritime career at sea or onshore), it set me thinking how previous shipping booms and busts have shaped the employment landscape of our industry.

The desperate years of the mid1980s saw not only an exodus from the industry of many experienced hands, but companies were reluctant to invest in young talent and for any school and college leaver, prospects elsewhere looked much brighter, especially as banks began to expand beyond their traditional roles and seemed to offer lucrative and glamorous careers — times have certainly changed in that respect. Just like when over-ordering of new tonnage brings a problem that can take many years to work through, that lack of recruitment in the 1980s now sees a shortage of senior executives to help the industry work its way out of the current slump.

How many people do we miss because we fail to get the message across to young people that shipping, in all its forms, can be a great career? Out of sight and out of mind is an apt description of our industry — piracy and oil spills being amongst the few items that are considered

more glamorous than secretive family companies who cart dirty raw materials around the world in a way that fundamentally hasn’t changed for centuries. But once you actually get that attention, show someone — young or old — round a shipyard or get them to appreciate the sheer

Get them to appreciate the sheer scale of what is involved in shipping and you can turn a spark into a flame newsworthy by the mainstream media, but there is an untapped enthusiasm and interest in our business which can be seen when you explain just how dependent every one of us is on maritime transport. It can be difficult to make shipping sound sexy — the youthful billionaires of the social media age are a lot

scale of what is involved in shipping, you can turn a spark into a flame.

Shipping occasionally gets a mention in a geography or economics curriculum, but it’s time those of us who have made a career out of it started to lay the foundations for our successors. The development

of maritime museums around Asia — as usual, Hong Kong led the way and now Singapore and Shanghai have followed — certainly helps (Ed. Note: Worthy mention must go to Macau’s museum, just across the road from a favourite restaurant, Alorcha), but it’s time that we got ourselves a more pronounced presence on the education radar. Don’t just target universities and the like — by then it’s too late. Let’s get some eloquent shipping people into school classrooms to give a first hand account of what we do. If that inspires a few young people to look at becoming a cadet, a shipbroker or take a look at shipping law as a possible avenue for their legal career ambitions, then it will have been a success. After all, we do offer better job prospects than being a careers teacher.

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■ ■ ■ OPINION

Down tools?

Yes, a number of Chinese shipyards will disappear, says Beijing correspondent Li Deng Bai, but not as many as some suggest

In most shipping markets in history, messy and marginal as they are, we all long for a glimpse of something bright and shiny.

In 2012 that means digging deep and clutching at straws.

One of the great phenomenona of the China story has been the shockingly inefficient use of capital and its consequences. There is no better example of this than in the property sector. We all have heard of newly built ghost cities in Inner Mongolia, where massive wealth created from natural resources and manufacturing have been channelled into apartments that wouldn’t look out of place in London’s Canary Wharf or somewhere in the Mid-Levels of Hong Kong.

The only thing out of place there is that they are built on what was a goat herder’s hovel in the middle of the Gobi Desert. Oh, and nobody lives in them. Of course, any practitioner of shipping who has actually visited a Chinese port in the last three years will see ‘command market’ 38

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inefficiency in its barest form with the piles of often quite old iron ore awaiting processing.

Pushing more than 90m tonnes at the moment, that equates if not to the equivalent of Mount Everest in unused supply, then at least a small foothill in the Rockies.

As an investor in shipping the key supply fundamental is that of ships. Last issue I wrote about the crazy days

the market with ships in the last four years and now supply, whilst slowing down to a mere 18% in 2011 by some counts, is drowning whatever stuttering demand we see for shipping. Funnily enough it is here that some people find salvation. New Chinese yards will disappear as quickly as they appeared, large swathes of the orderbook will remain undelivered and some kind of

In another lifetime Stanley Kubrick would have been making movies on this shipbuilding wasteland of the first decade of the 21st century when we were riding the Dragon of success and excess. Of course, at that time the warning bells were ringing on the party. The tsunami of orders washed up on the beaches of China, manifesting itself in a wall of shipyards across coastal China.

The Chinese yards flooded

happy equilibrium will soon be restored to the market.

A recent trip to a shipyard town in Zhejiang last month showed me there are reasons behind that point of view. I had flown down with an owner to discuss the yard building for their own account, which they had already been doing, with a seven-year charter attached

from this particular Swiss operator. We would provide the finance on the back of this, and I presumed we would be welcomed with open arms.

The defensive hostility of the shipyard owner was amusing.

“We have no slots this year.” I looked out at three empty slipways beyond his office quizzically. “We have sold ten ships for this year.” It was recorded in one Chinese language paper that they had sold three ships — to themselves.

That wasn’t half as curious as what I saw outside the yard. It turned out the yard we were visiting was the only one doing anything in town. As we drove back to the airport, we drove past 22 yards by my count. None of them were operating. Most had some or all of the equipment removed. One looked like it had been doused with petrol and burnt down in the classic fire insurance manner.

Stanley Kubrick, in another lifetime, would have been making movies on this industrial wasteland.

So maybe supply is going to die as quickly as it came. But then look at the figures. Of the 190-odd yards out there 40% of their supply comes from the two state-owned behemoths and one thing the Chinese will never do is let their state-owned employers go to the wall. In fact looked at from anyway you like the best that can happen is that 10-20% of Chinese supply dies like in the town I visited. As for the rest of it? We need to keep looking for a silver lining in the Chinese clouds.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Blue goes green Regular columnist Manish Singh looks at eco-priorities My friend bought a Suzuki Hayabusa and riding atop this fastest production bike, he inched through suburban Mumbai traffic, stopping at the lights, in the admiring gaze of other bikers who were all on smaller Indo-Japanese motorbikes. Lifting his visor, expecting admiration and awe struck questions about the bike’s superior technology, tremendous power, unparallel speed or outrageous price, he was promptly asked the question foremost in Indian motorists’ minds, “What mileage does she achieve?”

Excuse the digression, but superfluous performance is rendered pointless in the face of functionality and efficiency, whether in this example or in the super powered mega containerships now slow steaming with empties aboard. Waking up to the hangover of frantic shipbuilding with modest enhancements, fuel efficiency will be a priority for owners, charterers and operators of shipping tonnage driven by commercial imperatives and a range of environmental, regulatory and social reasons.

Shipping emissions and efficiency issues are increasingly in sharp focus in the public eye with more transparency and KPIs being monitored and increasingly directing decision making in support of tonnage that promises lower emissions and higher efficiency.

On the emissions front, considerable work has been done through the MARPOL regime to lower SOx and NOx emissions and adoption of higher grade marine fuel and of development of technology and infrastructure to make LNG a widely used and commercially viable marine fuel. Most key bunkering jurisdictions have adopted stringent

technological and design improvements focusing on the optimizsation of the marine fuel’s combustion process and the minimisation of energy loss, be it from the plant itself or through the hull. The performance management systems available today include trim

Superfluous performance is rendered pointless in the face of functionality and efficiency quality controls on fuel supplied and these measures are complemented by an increasingly sophisticated fuel analysis infrastructure globally.

As shown in the table, there are several areas of

optimisation and hull fouling monitoring systems that are increasingly non-intrusive and easy to integrate making them suitable not only for new builds but also as retrofit on existing tonnage. The business case

Efficiency drivers Fuel • Additives • Injection • Emulsification • LNG

Hull • Design • Coating • Cleaning • Air lubrication

Supplementary power • Sails • Flettner rotors • Solar panels • Fuel cells

Design • Material • Trim • Propulsions • Hull interface • Aerodynamics • Energy-efficient fittings • Power-management

Minimization of Energy loss • Waste heat recovery • Lubricants • Hull cleaning • Propeller polishing

Operational • Crew training • Routing • Virtual arrival • Trimming • Maintenance • CODED • ME Tuning • Autopilot

for such investments is often readily evident in the savings, particularly for large vessels operating on long voyages.

Not all areas of efficiency loss are because of hardware issues.

The industry is investing more in increasing awareness and training personnel at sea and ashore on areas for maximising efficiency. Some areas of savings are indeed long standing measures like ME load management, effective weather routing and the careful management of autopilot settings. These are today complemented by further commercial initiatives such as the virtual arrival systems being adopted to allow reduced steaming when faced with port congestions and delays in cargo operations.

More novel ideas like solar panelled decks, air lubrication along the hull, sails and rotors often receive more attention in industry and public media.

However, just like the motorist in our anecdote above, a tipping point seems to have been achieved with key stakeholders looking closely at the energy efficiency of shipping tonnage, which will ensure most above areas explored in combination. Looking through this prismatic crystal ball, shipping does seem greener on the other side.

Sinoship Summer 2012

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■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

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www.Sinoship.org

PHOTO FINISH ■ ■ ■ GREENBACKS FOR GREY HULLS Transiting the Lamma Channel in Hong Kong, a heavily laden Cosco boxship heads to the US, with rates finally rising 一艘满载的中远集装箱船通过香港的博寮海峡去往美国，运费终于上升

© André Eichman

Sinoship SUMMER 2012

41

Our readers include:

Getting your message across in a language your clients can understand

铁路多式联运调查 FPSO蓄力增长 海昌的船队调整 2012年夏季刊

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拆船专题 中国船员 梁振英领导下的 香港海事业

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目录 ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 3 编者语 4 经济 7 班轮 9 船厂 11 离岸

13 金融

15 商品

16 物流

17 邮轮

很多因没有订单已经关门的造 船厂里杂草丛生

9

— 中国船东协会，张守国

中国今后将成为最大的 邮轮市场

19

— 中国邮轮公司，黄伟建

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 9 黄伟建 1 21 茅士家

22 王德明

23 王书吉

■ ■ ■ 专题 4 拆船 2 26 船员

30 韩国企业在中国

■ ■ ■ 枢纽 2 上海 3 33 台北

35 香港

■ ■ ■ 评论 36 书籍

散装货运费率面临巨大压力 裕民海运，王书吉

23

一些假装环保的船东在拆 解其船舶和执行相关流程时 都偷工减料

25

— Grieg Green,Petter Heier

能够供应的合格船员人 数不足 — Univan Ship Management, Bjorn Hojgaard

26

■ ■ ■ 意见 7 Bei Hong 3 38 Li Deng Bai

39 Manish Singh

应该在各个层次上提供更多 培训

28

— Anglo Eastern, Peter Cremers Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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编者语 ■ ■ ■

中 国 航 运 的 国 际 平 台 www.sinoship.org ASM刊物 编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@sinoship.org 首席通讯记者 司湘

katherine@sinoship.org 通讯记者 姜浩

jason@sinoship.org 北京 上海 香港 大连 广州 台北

Li Deng Bai Paul French Alfred Romann Mark Downing Wang Fanglei Joshua Samuel Brown

供稿人

Li Dong, Bei Hong, Manish Singh 摄影

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订阅 总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取SinoShip 期刊。对于所有其他公司，订阅SinoShip2012年4期 需要收费100美元。订阅每月发行两次的PDF格式的 SinoShip电子新闻（包含独家新闻、数据和分析）需收 费500美元。订阅咨询请发送邮件到subs@sinoship. org。 版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2012 为确保本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努 力，但出版社对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何责 任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不得 对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以任何 形式或方式传输。

人民币升值 SinoShip本期内 容精彩纷呈，荟萃 了对多位顶级船东的独家专访，并将在 今年雅典盛大的航运业盛会Posidonia 发行。 在第32页，Paul French讨论了上海 在实现2020年成为国际金融和海运中心 这一目标的过程中所面临的障碍。他认 为，人民币汇率缺乏弹性是一个主要的 限制因素。 但是，我们最近在新加坡参加BIMCO 会议时，注意到了人民币正逐渐发展成为 全球货币的良好迹象。这不仅值得称赞， 对整个行业也是利好消息。 中国不仅对在中国造船厂建造新船的 外国船东提供折扣，还提供人民币融资。 国有的中国银行香港分行表示，自去 年下半年以来，该行一直在向外国船东提 供人民币贷款。 中国银行企业事务高级经理Pakco Lam 表示，中国造船厂对以人民币支付的合约 提供折扣。 Lam在新加坡BIMCO会议上表示：“船 舶交付通常需要2-3年时间，而预计人民 币还将继续升值。中国造船厂通常使用本 地货币支付劳动力成本及购买原材料。 据我们所知，买家如果以人民币支 付，通常可享受5%的折扣。” Rio Tinto Marine公司首席运营官 Michael Harvey在会议上表示，几家大型 矿山企业目前也在讨论以人民币开展贸易 的可能性。Lam认为这可能会在未来 2-3 年中变成现实。 最近对于人民币将成为国际货币的议 论之声不断。汇丰银行坚持认为人民币在 未来五年内将成为三大全球贸易货币之 一，预计至2015年，中国6万亿美元的贸 易额中将有三分之一以人民币结算。 著名经济学家Jeffrey Sachs是另一位对 人民币的崛起抱持坚定信心的人士，他 最近表示：“最根本的原因在于，几十年

来，美元都是单一储备货币，但未来它 将无法继续担当这一角色。我们希望能有 3-4种其他储备货币，相互之间实行灵活 的汇率机制。目前，拥有多种稳定的储备 货币对全球经济助益良多。” 中国经济的崛起将带来人民币地位的 上升，监管当局应找出方法以提高人民币 的灵活性。毫无疑问，上海也将继续欢迎 船运服务提供商的到来，以实现其2020年 的目标。

Sam Chambers 编辑主管 sam@sinoship.org Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

3

■ ■ ■ 经济

减速? 中国正全力保证8%以上的增长速度

前景仍光明 驻上海记者 Paul French 加入硬着陆或软着陆辩论 毫无疑问，中国的经济正在 减速。但是，对于中国经济将 软着陆还是硬着陆的争论却进 行得如火如荼，双方争持不 下。但最终总归要采取其中 一种。 中国第一季度 GDP 增速放 缓，但这一减速正符合软着陆 的标准，且与北京官方经济学 家的预测一致（他们这次倒是 料事如神）。拥有很大权力和 影响力的国家发改委 (NDRC) 副主任张晓强表示，中国第一 季度 GDP 同比增长约8.4%， 与去年第四季度同比增长8.9% 相比略有下降，但符合多数分 析师预测的 2012 年 8-8.5% 的 GDP 增速范围。 如果 GDP 的增长目标为 7.5%，鉴于中国的政治家们 通常都爱低估目标，大多数人 预计实际增长仍将为 8-8.5% 这点倒也可能。若 GDP 增速 保持这一水平，压力日增的新 兴中产阶级可以紧缩开支， 学着过过房价下降、生活成本 4

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上升的日子；那些指望着提 高最低工资标准来缓解痛苦的 有工作的穷人也能适应；而 富人们当然大体上仍将过着 富有的生活。但共产党能接 受 8% 的增长率吗？它可是乐 于购买各种武器装备和新型 航母，并在各类基础设施上 大笔投入（7.5% 的目标清楚 表明不会投放新一轮的刺激 资金）。而且，别忘了，它 还要在国内和国际舞台（非 洲、拉美等）上担当散财童子 呢！也许除了北京中央政府 里那些挥金如土的人以外， 中国的每个人都有办法紧缩 开支吧。除了对那些热衷于 刺激资金的人以外，也许经 济硬着陆根本不存在。 目前最令人头痛的问题之 一就是高企的全球原油价格， 这对中国的食品价格和整体通 胀率造成了巨大影响，而目前 原油价格似乎又有所回落。今 年三月，中央政府将零售汽油 和柴油价格提高了约 7%，不

仅增加了众多企业的成本，还 提高了中产阶级车主的生活成 本。当然，比中产阶级能否 开得起 SUV 更重要的问题是 油价上升对食品尤其是粮食 价格的影响，由于运输和肥料 价格的上升，这最终会引发连 锁反应。

高涨的油价影 响了食品价格 消费性支出仍是一个热点话 题。不出所料，零售销售额同 比增长 15.2%。工业产出和固 定资产投资同样大幅反弹，前 者在第一季度同比增长 11.9% ，而固定资产投资与 2011 年 第一季度相比则上升了 20.9% 。出口订单和国内需求增长（ 以及整体货运量的增长）是推 动工业产出增长的主要因素。 多数分析师认为今年第二季度 还将延续这一增长态势。

面对欣欣向荣的经济活动 和 2012 年出口订单还将继续 走强的预期，中国的银行也 再次显示出放贷的意愿—银 行的业绩（包括四大国有银 行）极为可观。当然，中国 通们都知道中国各银行的资 产负债表问题重重，但大家 都一致认为，与过去几年相 比，多数银行的经营状况更 为健康，盈利能力也有所增 强。很多人都表示，银行是时 候该给人民一点回报了，正 是他们—银行的顾客—使 银行得以蓬勃发展。但是， 中国的银行利率仍然是微乎 其微，在中国人高储蓄率的 背后，银行的借贷严重倾向 于资本密集型企业（例如房 地产和大宗商品行业），而 非劳动密集型企业。 更多贷款一般而言是一件 好事，但目前银行贷款却主 要流向了大型企业和国有企 业。多数人一致认为，银行 贷款应该首先惠及中小企业， 而它们通常是劳动密集型而 非资本密集型企业，因此其 发展对于创造就业机会、扩 大税基和可自由支配的支出 都有益处，最终将促进国家 经济的发展。

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班轮 ■ ■ ■

后，可能会向中国财政部寻求 高达 100 亿元人民币（约合 15.9 亿美元）的资金援助。该 公司 2011 年财务报告显示， 中国远洋控股有限公司 2011 年净亏损达到惊人的 104.5 亿 元人民币，其股票成为所有 A 股上市公司中业绩最差的 一只。

贾鸿祥

海航集团因其子公司大新华物 流巨亏而处罚多位高管。包括 大新华物流集团董事长贾鸿祥 （如图）在内的 21 名高管被 处以降职、减薪、开除等不同 处罚。其姊妹企业金海重工 被迫将大新华物流原本定购 的七艘海峡型船舶转售。新 船仅以每艘 3650 万美元的价 格出售。

太平洋航运计划出售其非核心 船运业务，以专注于干散货和 拖船业务。这家香港公司表 示，预计 2012 年的运价整体 比 2011 年低。太平洋航运执 董、行政总裁 Klaus Nyborg 辞 任，Mats Berglund 将成为公 司新一任的行政总裁。公司在 提交的报告中表示：“干散货 市场上持续的危机将为本公司 这样资本充足的企业带来并购 机会。”

中国远洋控股有限公司, 中 国最大的国有船运企业，继 2011 年亏损额再创新高之

行事大胆的台湾船运公司老 板苏信吉 (Nobu Su) 提出了一 个设计，将把 Today Makes Tomorrow (TMT) 的一些超大 型矿石原油运输船 (VLOO) 改 造为液化天然气浮式储存和 再气化装置 (LNG-FSRU)。这 艘 LNG-FSRU 的运力达 19 万 立方米，吃水 10 米，再气化 产能约为每年 500 万吨。TMT 要求现代重工集团 (Hyundai Heavy Industries) 于 2014 年第 一季度早期交付改造后的装 置。现代重工建造了原来的 VLOO。

快速扩张的慧洋海运与日本常 石造船 (Tsuneishi) 签署协议，

将由该公司在中国舟山的造 船厂建造三艘 45400 dwt 散货 船，外加一艘选择权。船主和 船厂合作完成了船舶设计，每 艘造价约为 2750 万美元，船 舶将于 2014 年交付。

长荣海运，作为最近一家 出手 10000 teu 级船舶的大 型海运公司，日前表示其 将租赁 10 艘运力为 13800 teu 的船舶。这家台湾海运 公司与韩国发展银行 (Korea Development Bank) 下属子 公司签署船舶租赁协议备 忘录。租赁的船舶将由现 代重工集团 (Hyundai Heavy Industries) 建造，并从 2013 年第四季度开始交付。报 道称这批船舶的建造价格 为 1.15 亿美元/艘，极为 便宜。分析师 Charles de Trenck 在我们 Linked In 站 点的 SinoShip China Shipping Network 上评论道：“长荣蓄 势已久，此次出手不凡。”

（约合 1.2 亿美元）。而本年 第一季度亏损额再次扩大，高 达 2.731 亿元人民币，几乎是 去年同期的三倍，上海证交所 停止了其 10 年期债券交易。

董建华长子董立均将于 7 月 1 日接替邹耀华，担任东方 海外的首席执行官，这标志 着董氏家族的第三代开始领 导该香港集装箱运输公司。 邹耀华将担任母公司的非执 行董事。董立均自 2009 年 1 月以来担任公司的首席运 营官.

董立均

中外运长航子公司南京长江油 运 (Nanjing Tanker) 因连续两 年出现净亏损，收到上海证券 交易所的正式警告，其 2011 年亏损额达 7.54 亿元人民币

中国造船厂纷纷拥有/租赁自 己建造的船舶已成为中国海 事行业 2012 年的主要趋势之 一。扬子江船业 (Yangzijiang Shipbuilding) 也成为最近一家 走上这条发展道路的造船厂， 其在新加坡组建了全资所有子 公司 Yangzijiang Shipping Pte Ltd。该公司的核心业务涉及 租赁和包船。

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oShip China Shipping Network 中 国 航 运 的 国 际 平 台

Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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船厂 ■ ■ ■

泰坦尼克号订单 最近 据一条走漏的消息

注入活力 SinoShip新驻广州记者Fanglei Wang认为目前萧条的造船业在进行优胜劣汰 中国造船业的日子仍然艰 难，但解救之道在于勇攀技术 高峰，并真正在离岸市场中有 所作为，一些最好的造船厂已 经这样做了。今年将要发生的 优胜劣汰 — 据一些大公司如 中国船舶工业集团公司 (CSSC) 的高层估计，淘汰率可能会高 达 50%，很显然是非常必要 的—好的才会留下。 中国船舶工业协会 (CANSI) 4 月 25 日的季度报告显 示，2012 年前三个月，中国造 船合同骤降了 48.7%，至 559 万载重吨，截至三月底订单共 计 1.4194 亿载重吨，与去年同 期相比下降了 25.3%，较 2011 年底下降了 5.3%。 本地媒体称，浙江省大约 80% 的造船厂不是已经停产就 是只有一半产能在运转。 “很多因没有订单已经关 门的造船厂里杂草丛生。”中 国船东协会秘书长张守国说。 “对于造船厂来说困难才 开始，最坏的还在后面。” 正如韩国三星经济研究所

一份无可辩驳的报告所表明 的，生产力 — 更进一步说是 技术能力 — 必须要提高。“ 代表造船厂生产力的中国人均 交付仅为韩国和日本的 30%。 而且设备国产化徘徊在 60% 的水平。”研究员 Bae Yong-Il 警告说。但是在这次淘汰过程 中，市场领先者的优势地位开 始清晰显现。大连船舶重工集

10% 目前的全球离岸订 单都给了中国。到 2020年，目标是拿到 全部订单的 50%。 团和南通中远川崎船舶工程有 限公司 (NACKS) 与沪东中华造 船集团都加入了对 BG LNG 船 的竞标，上海船厂正在建造钻 井船，而中远船务和中集来福 士不断包揽钻井平台和半潜式

钻井平台订单。中国海洋石油 总公司 (CNOOC) 对浮式生产 储油船 (FPSO) 的需求日益增 加（参见 11页），这对本地 造船厂来说是一大利好。大公 司在重新调整业务重点：中国 船舶重工集团 (CSIC) 去年发行 了 80 亿美元的可转换债券， 一半用于投资离岸和能源设施 项目。 CANSI 的报告称中国的造 船厂签订了 18 个离岸装置合 同，总金额为 50 亿美元，占 2011 年签订的全球离岸订单 的 10%。 在北京三月宣布的中长期 规划下，目标是到 2020 年将 离岸建设的收益提高到 4000 亿元人民币，是去年的十倍。 到那时中国应占全部离岸建设 项目的 50%，在未来 9 年中其 份额再次增长十倍 — 目标虽 然极为远大，但是历史表明中 国往往会实现那些数字；历史 见证了它成为排名第一的造船 大国的惊人成就，它比计划整 整提前五年实现了这一目标。

称，澳大利亚亿万富翁 Clive Palmer （如图）与长 航重工金陵船厂签订了一 份谅解备忘录，将建造 100 年前在大西洋沉没的泰坦 尼克号的现代版，SinoShip 连忙查看日历以确认这不 是四月一日愚人节玩笑。 这一订单对中国来说 标志着一个重要的里程 碑，这是中国第一次建造 邮轮。它的尺寸与原船一 样，将会有 840 个房间和 9 层甲板。 这艘船是计划于南京 长航重工金陵船厂建造 的豪华邮轮船队中的一 艘，Palmer 说，这些计划 将帮助中国成为邮轮市场 的主要竞争者。 这位 58 岁的矿业、房地 产和足球大亨补充说：“ 它与原来的泰坦尼克号的 奢华程度别无二致，当 然，它将采用 21 世纪最尖 端的技术和最新导航和安 全系统。” 计划于 2016 年建 成，Palmer 还与这家造船 厂签订了四艘 64000 吨散 货船的合同。 这份邮轮订单让很多认 为中国至少需要五年时间 才能拿到这种高规格订单 的人士大为震惊。

Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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The only collaborative software solution to manage commercial chartering activities 唯一可以分享租船信息的平台

Chartering tools – Vessel Database – Brokers – Operators – Tanker – Dry Bulk – Containership – Chartering positions – Port library – Distance tables – Vessel Manager – Cargo Manager – Voyage Calculator... 租船工具 - 船舶数据库 - 经纪 - Operators - 油轮 - 干散船 - 集装箱船 - 船舶位置 - 港口信息库 - 距离 船舶管理 - 货管理 - 航次计算...

我们是亚洲最大的独立海洋船舶经纪及 海事咨询集团之一 我们的服务包括 M3 MARINE 离岸经纪 • 租船 （定期租船和光船租赁） • 销售和采购 （包括新造船） M3 MARINE 专业服务 • 市场调研 • 船舶估价 • 项目分析 • 专家鉴证 • FMEA 制作&审计 • DP咨询/年度DP Trials • IMCA CMID和 潜水系统审核 • 预购调查检验 • 海事人才安置 • 技术/商业 尽职调查 专家们为您的海洋船舶需求增添技术及商业竞争力

离岸 ■ ■ ■

探索中国的FPSO目标 Katherine Si 表示，中国已经是浮式生产储油卸油装置(FPSO)领域的一个主要参与者，并且已经制定 了雄心勃勃的发展目标 只有巴西石油公司 （Petrobras）在 FPSO 的数量 上能够超过中国海洋石油总公 司 (CNOOC)。未来中国 FPSO 市场的发展将加快，因为国家 对深海勘探项目制订了更为宏 伟的目标。从现实情况来看， 中海油是中国唯一一家拥有并 运营 FPSO 的能源业巨头，但 预计中石化 (Sinopec) 和中石油 (PetroChina) 两家企业很快就会 有所行动。 巴西石油公司拥有 16 艘 FPSO，此外还有8艘的订单， 而中海油目前拥有 14 艘，暂 没有新订单。 2012 年，中海油忙于开展 约 25 个石油项目：12 个在中 国南海，8 个在渤海湾，1 个 在中国东海，另有 4 个在海 外。 中海油专业运营FPSO的子 公司订立了远大目标，希望下 一年利润能够增至 18 亿元人 民币，到 2020 年增至 46 亿元 人民币。据中海油能源发展股 份有限公司采油服务分公司总

经理张武奎表示，这些增长多 数来自海外开发项目，他还说 公司将会关注巴西、中东和澳 大利亚等海外市场，目标是 2020 年能够让公司海外运营的 FPSO数量 达到 8 到 10 艘。 据中海油项目和建设总经 理、中国南海深水开发项目经 理金晓剑表示，公司制订了宏 伟的计划以将石油产量从去年 的 5014 万吨提高到 2030 年的 1.2 亿吨。

包括 2011 年和今年，需求正 在回升，但我们无法预测这方 面会出现任何快速增长。”国 有企业中国船舶重工集团离岸 工程装备发展研究和咨询中心 主任赵泽华告诉 SinoShip。一 切都取决于勘探是否成功，他 说道并同时指出，全球 FPSO 的需求增长保持在每年 20% 这样一个非常健康的水平上。 Larsen & Toubro 东南亚业 务发展主管 Philip Williams 今

中海油(CNOOC)计划到2020年在海外运营 10艘FPSO 目前中国本身对 FPSO 的需 求并不大，该需求主要来自沿 中国海岸线的成功石油勘探， 而近年来这一方面的进展相当 缓慢。 “目前 FPSO 在中国的需求 量并不大，但也不弱，这主要 取决于市场和环境。2008 年的 金融危机使 FPSO 的市场需求 出现下降，但从 2010 年起，

年四月在新加坡的一次会议上 说：“中国很多造船厂都开始 涉足 FPSO 业务。” Larsen & Toubro 专门从事工 程及相关的离岸开发工作，最 近在上海开设了办事处，着眼 于大陆市场。 专业制造 FPSO 的一流造船 厂包括上海外高桥造船有限公 司、沪东中华造船集团有限公

司和大连船舶重工集团。 但是，中国船舶重工的高 管赵先生也承认，虽然中国在 FPSO 的建造和改装领域继续 高速发展，但仍然是落后的。 “目前，新加坡仍然是建 造 FPSO 的老大。中国目前还 无法成为世界第一。”赵先生 坦言。 但是，Energy Maritime Associates 董事总经理 David Boggs 坚持认为，中国未来在 FPSO 的发展中将发挥更加全 面的作用，正如他今年五月在 天津的一次会议上所指出的 那样。 “中国已经在行业里发挥 着巨大的作用，尤其是在制造 领域。未来，我认为中国将在 FPSO 项目的工程设计以及融 资方面发挥更大作用。目前， 中国有很多国内项目上马，随 着中国石油企业更多地在海外 经营项目，中国其他企业很可 能也将参与这些项目的工程设 计、建造和融资。”Boggs 总 结说。 Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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租赁时间 渣打银行近期出版了一本探讨船舶融资、厚达 240 页的书。渣打银行董事总经理兼船舶租赁与融资主管 Sander Scheepens 对瞬息万变的租赁行情提供了总体看法。 以往，股权和资产担保银行 融资是新造船舶和二手船舶融 资时最常使用的方式。自金融 危机爆发以来，许多银行陷入 需求下降和资产负债表的束缚 中艰难度日。 融资租赁提供了另一种融 资手段，它有助于填补流动性 缺口并正成为亚洲船运公司日 益倚重的融资来源。 在租赁结构下，船舶通过 售后回租的方式直接从造船厂 购买；或者在买卖市场购买并 按照长期光船租赁的方式出租 给承租人。 和所有融资决议一样，承 租人应当在进行详尽的财务分 析后仔细评估拟议的交易。 虽然租赁耗费的成本高于 优先支付的有担保债务，但承 租人还是应当考虑其股权的公 平成本，这一点甚为重要。因 此，若要进行公平比较，承租 人必须将租赁公司提供的资本 成本与承租人的加权平均资本 成本 (WACC) 进行比较。 承租人还必须在制订其船 队扩张计划时考虑其自己的资 本结构。船运公司首席财务官 必须为该公司确定适当、可持 续的债务股本比率。其后，他 们才能判断资产负债表是否有 足够的能力通过债务为购买船 舶进行融资，或是在公开市场 募集资金。 作为整体工作的一部分， 募集股本的交易成本和义务（ 监管和其他义务）也必须认真 评估。 虽然大多数租赁都将以光 船租赁的形式提供，但仍有些 出租人愿意以定期租船的方式 提供船舶。这意味着出租人将 承担船舶的运营费用，承租人 得以确定其未来的租船成本。

租赁业务将继续增长，尤其是用 于填补船运银行撤出后留下的融资 缺口 这可让承租人将精力专心用于 在不同地点间运送货物的商业 方面。 经营租赁的重要特点之一 是，它可让船运公司将剩余的 风险转移给出租人。 若首席财务官不赞成引入 太多船舶或公司内部对特定类 型船舶（尤其是燃料效率不高

和不太环保的船舶）的潜在报 废存在顾虑，则他们可以通过 售后回租的方式将其资产的剩 余风险转移给经营出租人。承 租人可以继续享有船舶的使用 价值，同时获益于销售收益带 来的现金状况改善。 作为一种融资工具，租赁 有多种形式。它对许多船运

公司具有吸引力的部分原因 在于它非常灵活，能让船运 公司通过各种结构（包括合 资、售后回租、采用背对背 租赁 (back-to-back lease) 的 交付前融资或直接租赁）实 现不同的目标。 鉴于租赁的诱人成本（与 船运公司的总体 WACC 相 比）、转移剩余风险的能力 以及高达 100% 的可融资性， 对租赁的采用将日益增长， 尤其用于填补因主要船运银 行近年来撤出市场后留下的融 资缺口。 Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 金融

加快步伐 来自诺顿·罗氏律师事务所的 Jonathan Silver 和 Jim James 告诉读者，随着融资租赁业在中 国日渐发展，需要制订更明确的法规。 融资租赁在 20 世纪 80 年代 首次引入中国。经过 20 世纪 90 年代的缓慢发展后，租赁 业得到了国内外投资者的支持 并自此迅速发展。 融资租赁公司受双重监管 系统的管理，一个是中国银行 业监督管理委员会 (CBRC) ， 另一个是商务部 (MOFCOM)。 CBRC 机制可让国内外商业 银行投资于在中国组建、在中 国从事融资租赁业务的融资租 赁公司。 MOFCOM 机制不仅允许国 外投资者投资于在中国组建的 融资租赁公司，还可让国内非 金融机构在中国组建内资融资 租赁公司。 在安排离岸或跨境租赁融 资交易的结构时，国内的中国 出租人可以通过两种方式建立 离岸租赁子公司。其一，通 过“信托关系”，即离岸租赁 子公司的董事或股东以某种方 式与中国出租人建立联系；其 二，通过建立全资离岸租赁公 司。每种方式都需要获得中国 政府的各类批准，且都被视为 受中国监管体系重点监管的“ 海外”投资。 若融资租赁公司已经建立 了一家离岸租赁子公司（无论 是通过“信托关系”还是以其 他方式），则它还需要考虑一 大堆其他问题。这些问题涉及 到拟出租的资产是否被允许进 口到中国以及各类不同的税务 问题，这些税务问题若同时存 在则可能会被视为对整个融资 租赁结构造成限制，或不够 经济。 目前的监管框架还有待发 14

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展，因为它仍然不够明晰且缺 乏一致性。 有待阐明的一个关键领域 就是中国的飞机和船舶登记制 度。各种各样的限制使得融资 租赁公司或承租人在登记对飞 机或船舶的各项权利时困难重 重。其中一项值得注意的限制 就是禁止外资融资租赁公司在 中国登记船舶和飞机，如果它 们的外资股权超过 35%（飞 机）或 50%（船舶）。 但是，近期也出现了一些 积极的进展。国家税务总局分 别在 2010 年和 2011 年发布了 两项通知，其中规定，若国内 融资租赁公司按照融资租赁的 方式出售船舶给离岸承租人， 则其可以在出口船舶给离岸承 租人时免缴增值税 (VAT)，而 其在购买已租赁船舶时支付的 增值税将被退回。 显然，中国的融资租赁业 必将发展壮大。然而，迄今为 止，这个行业，尤其对于离岸 （美元）融资租赁产品来说， 依然处于初级阶段，仍需加 大力度发展监管框架和租赁 结构。 商务部外国融资 租赁公司

商务部国内融资 租赁公司

银监会融资租赁公司

投资者资格

‘首要’投资人或‘普 低（仅限总资产） 低（仅限总资产） 通’投资人

注册资本

US$10m

RMB170m

RMB100m

政府调控及干预

轻度调控

轻度调控

重度调控和监督

商品 ■ ■ ■

中国在2009年成为煤炭净进口国， 目前已占世界海运贸易的五分之一

烧旺中国经济 驻大连记者Mark Downing在思考的问题是，尽管中国拥有全球第一的煤矿储量，但何以成为该重要矿 物燃料的净进口国 煤是全球需求量最大的矿物 燃料。在过去十年中，煤对世 界能源供应的贡献几乎超过了 所有其他能源形式的总和。由 于煤的储量大，价格相对便 宜，因此是发展中国家的主要 能源来源，但近期的需求高涨 却将其价格推至历史高位。 就在去年，中国对煤的无止 境需求使其超过日本，成为全 球最大的煤进口国，尽管中国 自身拥有丰富的煤储量—仅次 于美国和俄罗斯，在全球排名 第三。其实，中国并非真正需 要 进口煤，它的煤产量足以让 任何其他国家相形见绌，去年 的开采量超过 32.4 亿吨，占全 球产量的近一半，比全球第二 大产煤国—美国高出三倍。 从历史情况来看，由于中 国巨大的煤储量、低廉的劳动 力成本、富有吸引力的出口价 格和政府激励政策，中国曾是 煤净出口国，2003 年出口量达 到最高值9400 万吨。但是，中 国的煤进口量大幅上升，从 21 世纪初期的每年 1000 万吨增 长至 2009 年的 1.26 亿吨，并 在当年成为净进口国，之后， 中国的煤进口量在 2011 年迅 速攀升至 1.82 亿吨，约占海运

贸易的五分之一。去年，香港 来宝集团 (Noble Group) 预计中 国 2015 年仅电煤进口量就可 能达到 2 亿吨，其他行业估计 为 1.8-3 亿吨。 中国煤储量如此巨大，为 何如此热衷于进口？其中一个 主要原因是煤等级低，杂质 多，不适合炼钢等领域。此 外，某些发电厂使用等级较高 的进口煤，可提高燃煤量而不 超过当地的污染限制水平。日 益上升的国内成本和人民币 的稳步升值使进口的可行性 增加。

管标准提高和劳动力成本上 升（仅去年就升高了 13%） ，导致了运营成本增加。此 外，2006 年国家发改委允许 完全放开公用事业用电煤价 格。但是由于国家为了降低 通胀和促进经济发展实行电 价限价政策，煤炭供应商和 电厂对电煤价格进行了长期 博弈，并于 2009 年爆发了一 场旷日持久的纷争，无法就 电煤价格达成一致。于是， 来自印尼和澳大利亚等主要 出口国的进口煤在经济上具 有了可行性。

煤电占中国总发电量的五分之四， 是世界平均值的两倍 中央政府的政策也是中国 煤炭行业状况发生变化的主 要因素。自 2005 年以来，中 央政府关闭了数千家安全性 差、环境污染严重、效率低 下的小煤窑，在一定程度上 限制了煤供应。同时，政府 还推动将乡镇小煤窑整合进 大型国有企业，由于安全监

此外，中国国内的煤炭运 输成本也越来越高。由于中国 的主要产煤地区为西部和北部 内陆地区，而东部和南部的人 口大省和沿海工业城市则是主 要消费地区，中国近一半的铁 路运力都用于煤运输。由于需 求上升过快，超过了基础设施 的容量，运输瓶颈随之显现，

一部分被迫使用成本较高的公 路运输，而对东部港口的铁路 转海运路线也更为依赖。 虽然中国在可再生能源和 核电领域投资巨大，但在可预 见的将来，中国还将严重依赖 煤电。煤电占中国总发电量的 五分之四，是世界平均值的两 倍，石油和天然气发电分别仅 占 2% 和 1%。虽然中国已经是 全球最大的水电消费国，但却 受到日益加剧的旱情的威胁。 风电和太阳能发电目前无法大 规模供应平价电力，对缓解可 预测到的需求帮助不大。截至 2010 年底，中国的装机发电量 达到 962 吉瓦，其中矿物燃料 发电占 707 吉瓦，水电占 213 吉瓦，风电占 31 吉瓦，核电仅 占 10.8 吉瓦，后者预计至 2020 年将增长 7 倍。 中央政府正努力将 2015 年 前的非约束性年产量上限定 为 39 亿吨，以保护其资源和 环境，同时鼓励更多进口，并 通过一项特殊基金为并购海外 产煤企业提供额外支持。借助 多方市场力量和中央政府的规 划，中国正逐渐由之前大部分 依靠自给自足的煤炭市场转变 为重要的全球参与者。 Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 物流

在中国10个即将抵达或者离岸的集装箱中 只有一个通过铁路运输

铁轨 Jason Jiang 称，中国需加速实施铁路多式联运计划 铁路运输被公认为是从港口 运送集装箱的最有效模式，但 世界各地的铁路使用水平差别 极大。 铁路运输比公路运输更环 保，也可保证交付时间，而公 路运输则经常饱受拥堵之苦， 且货车运输费用较高。 在世界主要经济地区，中 国在铁路多式联运方面严重 落后，本页表格也证实了这 一点。 中国是世界上最重要的集 装箱运输中心。据估计，在中 国 10 个即将抵达或者离岸的 集装箱中只有一个通过铁路运 输，而美国的比例为 40%。无 可否认，这比 5 年前增长了约 3 个百分点，但是仍然不够， 特别是当工厂日渐向西迁移， 人口分布使中国制造业的区域

箱车 多式联运铁路使用(%) 美国 印度 日本 欧盟 俄罗斯 中国

16

www.Sinoship.org

40 35 33 18 16 10

地理位置发生了重大变化。 4 月公布的政府统计数据显 示，物流仍占中国国内生产总 值的 18%，该比例相当巨大， 是美国物流成本的两倍多。这 在很大程度上是因为货车运 输比铁路运输更为普遍而造

运输。铁路商业货运需求不 断增长，但供应一直有限。 中国内陆的出口制造业从最 近几年才刚刚起步, 因此，集 装箱基础设施，如仓库和货 车还不是很到位，正在试图 迎头赶上。”

中国是世界上最重要的集装箱运 输中心 成的。 历史上中国的铁路客运需 求量一直增长迅猛，因而中国 铁路一直优先发展客运，造成 铁路货运能力缺口巨大，同 时高速公路拥堵情况也十分 严重。 过去十年间，中国政府在 铁路方面的投资超过了世界上 任何其它国家。尽管如此，在 这个制造业大国里，通过铁路 运输的集装箱数量仍然少得 可怜。 例如去年，铁路多式联运 集装箱货运量仅占铁路货运总 量的约 3%。 APL Logistics北亚区市场总 监 Peter Tan 表示：“中国铁 路运力严重不足。因此，优 先发展的是自然资源和旅客

Tan 继续说道：“建设高 速铁路有望大幅增加运力— 许多主要的 OD 对（原产地 - 目的地对）采用双轨道，速 度更快，因此周转次数更多。 这对内陆地区时效性要求较高 且货运量较大的托运人是非常 有利的。”他还补充道：“货 车运输费用昂贵，且存在可靠 性问题。” 在中国上一个五年计划 (2006-2010) 及铁路中长期发 展规划中，中国已经强调了发 展铁路集装箱运输的重要性。 它已致力于将铁路集装箱运送 量从 320 万 teu 增加至 1,000 万 teu。为实现这一增长，铁 道部 (MOR) 决定在中国占据重 要地理位置的地区建设 18 个 铁路集装箱物流中心，其中 9

个已经投入运营。 中铁联集由国内外六家投 资者于 2007 年成立，以发 展这 18 个铁路集装箱物流 中心。 Tan 解释道：“这 18 个铁 路货运装卸点其实是‘枢纽’ ，而不是‘仓库’。”这些装 卸点采用特殊设计，专门处理 各自地区的铁路集装箱货运量 需求。Tan 强调：“这些枢纽 或者货站只有与通过其部署的 铁路运力以及其服务的 OD 对 保持一致才能发挥出效用。” 目前，不同的国家主管部 门管理着不同的运输形式。货 运基础设施的建设和运营均缺 乏统一的规划、管理和协调。 同样，综合运输系统中所必需 的一些接口的统一标准和一些 基本条件仍不明确。 Tan 表示：“当这些枢纽愿 意与铁路运营商、托运人和承 运人合作，以便在成本效益和 运输时间要求之间形成更好的 正规化匹配时，就会体会到这 种差异。” 香港集装箱运输公司东方 海外的一名官员也提出：“建 设铁路装卸点可能只是解决方 案的一部分，因为将它们连接 至全国各主要区域的铁路网络 才是问题的关键所在。”

邮轮 ■ ■ ■

越来越大的船舶在中国停靠

停靠获现金补助 正如 Katherine Si 所描述的，整个大中华区对邮轮停靠都提供诱人奖励 大中华地区邮轮业令人难以 置信的增长有目共睹，但是各 个城市正在着手做的事情是确 保他们都能分一杯羹。 “中国邮轮旅游市场一直在 以每年 30% 的速度发展，而 且仍具有很大潜力。”中国 携程旅行网游轮旅游业总监 最近说。 虽然中国港口接待的邮轮 旅客已在 75 万人左右，但据 中国交通运输协会邮轮游艇 分会 (CCYIA) 推测，有 3 亿中 国人将成为潜在的邮轮乘客。 以此计算，这等于北美或西欧 的人口之和。 邮轮停靠带来的利润非常 可观，竞争日趋白热化，因此 开出的奖励和补贴额度也日益 升高。台湾观光局是 这一浪潮中最大胆的行动者 之一。从今年开始，任何载客 250 人以上的海外邮轮只要在 台湾地区母港停靠，每趟航程 都会获得补贴。补贴从每位乘 客 10 美元到 25 美元不等，具 体要视搭乘邮轮前往台湾的旅

客人数而定。该计划从 2012 年 2月 15 日起生效，2015 年 12 月 31 日截止。 “由于世界各大邮轮公司对 亚洲旅行路线越来越感兴趣， 台湾政府也加大投资，用于 改进我们四大国际港口的码 头和基础设施。”台湾观光 局局长 Thomas Chang 在纽约 说。“要保持台湾邮轮业的 增长势头，我们还制定出一 些针对邮轮业的奖励措施，希 望在 2012 年及以后能够吸引 更多游客前来台湾。新的奖励 和补贴计划就是其中之一。” 2009 年至 2011 年间，抵

25 美元 对每名前往台湾旅游的邮 轮游客，邮轮公司都会获 得25 美元的奖励

达台湾的邮轮游客人数从 8.8 万飙升至 13 万。2011 年在台 湾港口的邮轮停靠达 90 余次， 预计 2012 年将超过 110 次。 高雄正在建设新的母港， 耗资 8700 万美元，预计 2014 年投入使用，同时北部基隆 正斥资 7800 万美元升级其邮 轮设施。 事实上，奖励明显起了作 用。在计划公布后的几周内， 皇家加勒比国际邮轮公司表 示，公司计划从八月起将让一 艘 140,000 总吨的邮轮停靠基 隆港。此外，皇家加勒比还 考虑将基隆作为其在亚洲地区 的母港。 四月，荷美邮轮公司在载 有1400名日本游客的61,396总 吨的MS Zaandam停靠后的二 十年来首次停靠在台湾。 从神户到达花莲,邮轮接着 驶向高雄。 无论在世界哪个地方，每 一次邮轮停靠都会带来数百 万美元的收入，包括港口费、 零售收入或更确切地说是游

客的花费，因此，大中华地 区各大港口城市纷纷出台财 政奖励措施以鼓励邮轮公司 停靠也就不足为奇了。就以 青岛为例，根据游客人数， 对每趟航程提供 1 万至 3 万 人民币的奖励，旅行社如果能 在旅游淡季吸引 8,000 名以 上的外国游客到山东城市旅 游，则可享受 5 元人民币/人/ 天的奖励。 其他地方，如厦门，由于 毗邻台湾，正在大力将自己 打造为中国最大的邮轮枢纽， 任何公司只要能够吸引国际邮 轮公司在此停靠，每趟航程 都会收到 1 万元人民币的奖 励。对于连续两年将厦门作 为母港停靠的国际邮轮公司来 说，奖励达到了诱人的 100 万 元人民币。 同时在中国南端的海南岛， 凡能安排国际豪华邮轮停靠于 海口的旅行社，每趟航程都能 得到 3 万元人民币的奖励。和 这个人口第一大国里的众多其 他事情一样，金钱是万能的。 Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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展会 • 会议 • 网络

2012 年 9 月 17-18 日 拉斯维加斯金沙国际会议中心 新加坡滨海湾金沙

您为何要参展亚太邮轮船舶展览与会议 • 整个亚太地区邮轮产业一年一度的盛会。 • 主办方迈阿密游轮船舶 – 28 多年来首屈一指的邮轮产业盛会 。 • 拥有着吸引全球邮轮产业主要决策者 的辉煌记录。

亚太邮轮船舶展览与会议 – 通向 未来市场的门户

BOOK TODAY! Richard Regan Head of Sales US/EU/Middle East richard.regan@ubm.com Ph: +1.609.759.4742 Mo: +1.609.558.2723 Fax: +1.609.759.4774

Sas Thayalan Project Manager UBM Asia sas.thayalan@ubm.com Ph: +65 6592 0897 Mo: +65 9800 3475 Fax: +65 6438 6090

亚洲邮轮船舶展览与会议的支持单位为：

www.cruiseshippingevents.com/asia sales@cruiseshippingmiami.com

Held in

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

黄伟建

邮轮之王 黄伟建，中国第一个邮轮船东，向SinoShip独家披露他计划将名下邮轮扩展到六艘

不

到 40 岁就已经是千万富 翁，业界大亨黄伟建开始把 目光投向新的投资领域。他 在寻找中国的朝阳行业，一 个在国内没有竞争，但是拥有强大的发展 潜力，对中国迅速崛起的中产阶级极具吸 引力的东西，这一代人与中国历史上任何 一代人都不同，他们有钱要消费。 邮轮航运市场完全符合上述要求。黄 在去年九月采取了大胆行动，他的中国邮 轮有限公司花 4500 万美元收购了澳门赌 王何鸿燊 1992 年建造的双体豪华邮轮亚 洲之星，之后更名为中华之星。黄当时称 这个价格“非常便宜”，此次收购之后黄

中国今后将成为最大 的邮轮市场 成为中国第一个邮轮船东。 黄之前是个投机者，20 年前在哈尔滨 工业大学读书时淘到他的第一桶金，那时 苏联解体不久，他开始与邻国俄罗斯做生 意。自那以后，他还涉足过软件、筑路、 水产、旅游和土地开垦等行业。

对于黄来说，邮轮投资是件非常简 单的事。“这是中国海运业中的空白领 域。”这位温州人告诉 SinoShip。他称中 国乘坐邮轮的人数在不到四年时间里已经 从一年 20 万人增至一年 78 万人，他也注 意到去年母港停靠数首次超过过境停靠。 “我可以说中国今后将成为最大的邮 轮市场。”黄信心十足地说。 黄决定进入这一领域也得到中央和地 方政府的支持 — 浙江省当时花费巨资以 发展其海洋经济。 作为这一领域的先行者，黄非常清楚 挑战来自他自己的方面 — 中国的邮轮政 策“不完善”，他说，然而整个邮轮供应 链，从母港的发展、补给到娱乐，所有这 些都需要认真开发。 黄说：“中华之星瞄准高端商务人 士。这会成为一个商务、休闲和娱乐的高 端会所。”每次航行也将展示一系列中国 特色，特别是传统浙江文化瓯越文化。 除了在邮轮上供应西餐，也会有温州特 色小吃。 很多邮轮设有内舱房，但是这艘双体邮 轮已经过改装，所有房间都是海景房，24 平方米的客房可以舒服地住两个人。 按照目前的航线规划，五月将开辟从舟

山、上海、厦门、天津和深圳至台湾、日 本冲绳、韩国济州和越南下龙湾的航线。 对于黄来说，中华之星只是邮轮星群 的开端 — 或第一期。他向 SinoShip 透 露，第二期将会投入高达 15 亿元人民 币，购买四或五艘邮轮，打造中国第一个 专门的远洋邮轮船队并大幅扩展其航线网 络。也有可能在香港上市。

中国邮轮有限公司 去年由温州富商黄伟建在香 港成立。九月向何鸿燊购买 了 1992 年造的亚洲之星， 从而成为中国第一个邮轮船 东。邮轮经过改造后，三月 进行了第一次航行。打算花 费高达 15 亿元人民币再购买 四或五艘邮轮。

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全球集装箱航運峰会

shanghai 上海 2012

上 海

2012 年6月4–5日中国上海虹口三至喜來登大酒店

拼凑正确的版图 是他的艺术，

凝聚正确的人群 是我们的艺术。 伴随上海成为全球最大的集装箱港口，来自于中国内 陆地区、通过上海港发往世界各地的集装箱货量与日 俱增。新版上海出口集装箱运价指数(SCFI)的发布， 也引起了业界关于如何优化中国内陆至上海港的集疏 运体系、泛太平洋航线、亚洲线等一些列问题的热烈 讨论。 与全球领先港口、航运企业、第三方物流、无船承运 商、货主会面、交流、讨论。

重点发言人: • Tim Smith, 马士基航运 • Andrew Polins, 美国体育用品零售商Dick’ s Sporting Goods • Peng Koon Sng, Agility Logistics • Emile Hoogsteden, 鹿特丹港务局 • Joachim Coens, 比利时泽布吕赫港务局 • 连平 博士, 交通银行 • Jorge L. Quijano A., 巴拿马运河管理局

www.shanghai.joc.com 策划单位:

支持单位:

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

紧迫的石油需求 中国对其能源安全状况的关注度上升，大连海昌集团茅士家详述扩大其油轮船队的计划

对

于中央政府提出的理想石油 供应链设想，没有几个中 国人比茅士家更为公开和坦 率。早在 2009 年在上海举 办的行业聚会上，作为国有企业中海发展 的总经理，茅就在国际油轮船东间掀起 阵阵涟漪。茅不仅呼吁建立中国超大油 轮联营体 (VLCC Pool)，还进一步敦促三 大国有石油集团和三大国有船运公司联 合起来。 虽然这还没有发生，但却继续让全球 船东难以入眠。就在今年春天，国家能源 局规划处副处长何永健再次提起这一话 题，呼吁国有运输公司、炼油厂和保险公 司联合起来，组成一个更综合的船运体系 以确保能源安全。 何说中国高达 90% 的原油进口是通过 海运运输，这使其受到不断变化的国际环 境的影响。中国 2011 年进口原油超过 2.6 亿吨，对外依存度达 56.5% — 超过 50% 的国际“警戒线”。黄估计到 2015 年底 这一数字将会超过 65%。 茅去年离开中海发展加入大连海昌集 团，担任该大型联合企业两大船运子公司 飞跃物流发展有限公司和大连瑞海石油化 工品船舶运输有限公司的董事长。 20 年前，海昌最初在该东北港口城市 从事石化产品贸易，其字面意思翻译成英 文为 Sea Fortune，目前已发展为多元化经 营，业务扩展到全国并进入船务、房地

产、旅游、高尔夫球场和众多其它领域。 公司与中石化和中石油均达成了运输交 易，让众多其它石油运输公司艳羡。在某 种意义上，海昌可以称自己为中国最大的 私营 VLCC 船东，虽然过去四年来它的船 队组合已经发生了很大变化。尽管其业务 非常多样，今天石油和石化产品仍然是海 昌集团的支柱产业。

我们正试图发展国际 贸易市场 谈到中国石油贸易的未来，虽然茅现 在为一家私营公司工作，但仍对前景十分 乐观，他说：“中国的市场还是很大，因 为中国各种工业项目正在迅速发展，中国 对能源的需求与日俱增。” 他说每年的石油进口持续增长，如果 去年的市场被形容为“萧条的”，茅预计 2012 年将会出现复苏。他坚持认为“不 可能比去年更差”。 目前海昌船运拥有一艘 VLCC、三艘 成品油运输船和三艘化学品运输船，总 运力约为 50 万载重吨。经过一段时间 的收缩后，海昌现在正在扩张。还有 两艘成品油运输船和一艘化学品运输船 在建。 茅认为船队发展的融资“非常灵活”。

传统的内部融资占新造船舶的 20-30%， 其余来自融资租赁和行业基金。 海昌船队正在酝酿着进一步的改 变。“目前我们在考虑重组一些船运业务 以应对变化的市场趋势。我们希望能调整 业务组合，可能会在合适的时机投资不同 的船型。目前我们的主业务主要集中在国 内贸易，我们正试图发展国际贸易市场， 但我们需要仔细考虑市场需求。”茅说。 发展国际贸易会让北京的规划者对其 过度扩展的能源供应链感到满意。

海昌集团 20 年前成立于大连的海昌最初 从事石化产品贸易，现在已转 向多样化经营，涉及房地产和 旅游业。四年收缩期之后，船 队现正执行扩张计划，船运子 公司拥有一艘VLCC、三艘成 品油运输船和三艘化学品运输 船，此外订单上还有三艘船舶 等待交付。集团计划向更广大 的国际市场迈进。

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■ ■ ■ 人物专访

向百万吨 船队进军 王德明，青岛正和航运总裁，即 将签订具有里程碑意义的订单， 在公司成立20年之际将船队吨 位扩张到7位数

尽

管是一家私营企业的领 导，王德明支持政府更多 的干预中国航运和造船行 业。这位青岛正和航运的 老板呼吁中央控制整体新造船市场，在 有必要的时候进行限制，并对实际需要 的国内沿海船队规模制定更精确的计 划，同时提供更多的船舶融资方案。除 此之外，王德明希望能够鼓励淘汰老旧 船舶。在中国，超过三分之一的船舶船 龄超过25年。 王德明与他的姐姐王淑萍一起经营 正和航运，王淑萍担任董事长，王德明 担任总裁。最早成立于1993年，公司在 2007年收购另一家青岛航运企业，并通 过在舟山的姊妹公司进入船舶制造和修 理行业。 正和的船队规模将在今年年底达到90 万载重吨，王德明对SinoShip透露，他将 很快签订环保型的37,000载重吨和67,000 载重吨的散货船订单，在20年成立之际 这家山东企业的船队即将达到100万载 重吨。 目前公司船队有24艘船，包括巴拿马 型散货船，多用途船和集装箱船。中期 的业务发展规划是到2015年将公司的船 队规模扩大到180万载重吨，到时海峡型 散货船将占有一席之地。 像大连海昌集团一样，内容见前页， 正和将其早先的国内沿海航线拓展到 了国际航线，并将成为业务重点继续 增长。 “印度尼西亚的煤炭运输已是我们目 前日益增长的业务之一，”王德明说，

印度尼西亚煤炭运输 已成为目前我们日益增 长的业务之一 22

www.Sinoship.org

他指出公司船队中有超过50万载重吨的 运力都用于国际航线上。 正和很好的应对了行业低迷，在波罗 的海干散货运价下跌之前就将大部分船 通过长期包租的方式租出去了。 “由于我们将船租出去了，所以我们 并没有被不景气的市场过分的影响。公司 的盈利和表现都相对稳定。”王德明说。 于此同时，对于浙江正和造船，情 况就没那么美好了。浙江省是在造船行 业低迷情势下受挫最严重的地区，据日 前当地媒体的报道，该地区约有80%的 造船厂或停止生产或仅有一半的设施在 运营。不过在浙江正和造船，情况并没 有那么糟，但却也有让人忧心的时候。 这家船厂手持订单有17艘船，今年至多 将有13艘船交付。该船厂日前在青岛成 立了设计机构开发新产品包括多用途船 和节能船。正和采用了一家日本设计公 司帮忙，迄今为止已经在研发上投入了 2000万元。 该船厂的总经理徐才中，在四月接受 国内一家媒体采访时表示，非常希望北 京为造船业提供更多的资金支持，并称

他的船厂如果有2亿元的资金支持就可解 燃眉之急了。 在中国，政府的干预无论对于私营还 是国有企业来说，将会是成功与失败间 的差异。

正和航运 1993年在青岛成立，当时曾 是国内沿海小型散货运输公 司。2007年收购当地一家 航运公司，在舟山还有船舶 建造和修理设施。目前，船 队中的大部分船被用于国际 航线运输，今年年底船队规 模将达到90万载重吨。公司 由王德明与王淑萍姐弟二人 经营。

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

冒险尝试 今年二月裕民航运签署了一笔少见的海峡型船舶订单。总经理王书吉深入剖析上海外高桥造船公司之行背 后的原因。

台

湾裕民航运股份有限公司在 经济衰退时期始终都是一家 精明的经营者，它于 2 月在 中国签订了一笔少见的海峡 型船舶订单—与上海外高桥造船有限 公司签订了 4 艘 186,300 dwt 散货船的订 单，外加 6 艘选择权。 每艘船以 4,983 万美元购得，价格大幅 下降，远低于很多人认为的海峡型船只 5,500 万美元的损益平衡点。 裕民航运总经理王书吉表示：“拆船 速度加快，造船速度放慢，这将使目前散 货船运市场供过于求的局面得到缓解。裕 民航运认为 2012 年船运业前景惨淡，这 是其以非常优惠的价格签订船舶订单的 良机。” 这些订单属于裕民航运船只替换整体 计划的一部分，并将有助于减小船队平均 船龄，船队平均船龄现在为 15 年。这些 船只将由裕民航运在新加坡的船东子公 司管理。 这些船舶将于 2014 和 2015 年交付， 拥有新加坡国籍的王书吉认为，届时市场 状况将逐渐好转。 “目前市场供过于求，”王书吉承 认。“散装货运费率面临巨大压力。这种

新造船只价格短期 内应该不会进一步 下降 状况可能会持续至 2013 年和 2014 年。老 旧货船的拆解速度加快，有望改善这种 供求不平衡的状况，货运费率预计将在 2014 年之后上涨。” 新造船只的价格非常优惠，王书吉认 为船厂已无进一步降低价格的余地。 国际造船钢板价格持续高位运行，他 指出，虽然在中国略有下降，但铁矿石原 材料价格仍然高企，造船工人薪酬不断上 涨，他认为：“所以新造船舶价格短期应 该不会进一步下降。” 裕民航运目前的船队拥有 31 艘船，外 加 8 艘船的确认订单。其船队拥有不同类 型的散货船，包括海峡型、巴拿马型、超 巴拿马型、大灵便型和水泥运输船，同 时，它还拥有一艘超大型油轮。不久的将 来还可能会预订油轮。2010 年 7 月，裕 民航运与台湾能源巨头中油股份有限公 司和中国航运成立合资公司环能海运。中

油股份有限公司当时提出最终目标是拥有 35 艘超大型油轮。 即使对裕民航运这样老谋深算的运 营商而言，经济低迷也对其业绩造成冲 击。2011 年公司净利润大幅下跌至 27 亿 新台币（9,130 万美元），比 2010 年下降 59.1%。而且，今年第一季度营运亏损与 2011 年同期相比几乎上升了两倍，达到 6,830 万新台币（230 万美元）。

裕民航运 总部位于台北的裕民航运股份 有限公司成立于 1984 年，并 于 1990 年在当地上市。公司 董事长为徐旭东，总经理为新 加坡国籍的王书吉。其船队拥 有超过 31 艘船只，包括各种 规模的散货船，外加 7 艘水泥 运输船和一艘超大型油轮。还 有 8 艘船舶的确认订单。

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■ ■ ■ 专题

废船解体 首席通讯记者Katherine Si阐述中央对环保要求的加强使得国内拆船 厂的盈利缩小

当

前的五年计划大力强调发展 和改进中国的拆船业。这一 强调非常重要，有两个原 因：其一，中国对各类钢材 的需求没有止境；其二，拆船业的发展可 以为许多失业的造船工人提供就业机遇。 尽管目前中国拥有相当可观的拆船能 力，但是对拆船金属的需求不足达到每年 1000 万吨，这一数字还将继续上升。 全球造船市场的产能过剩情况在这里 也存在。SinoShip 的分析表明，到 2013 年底，干散货船和油轮贸易的名义产能过 剩将达到 20% 以上，这将有越来越大的 压力促使全球的船东实施拆船。

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鉴于超过三分之一的中国船只船龄都 超过 25 年，中国船东比其他船东更应实 施拆船。尤其是散货船，预计未来将会有 大量散货船被拆解。 “在过去几年里，中国船厂拆解的大 多数船舶都是散货船，随着波罗的海干散 货指数的下跌，可能会有更多的散货船被 拆解。”中国拆船协会会长谢德华告诉 SinoShip。 但是，航运业的困境影响深远。例 如，集装箱航运也遭遇了严重的产能过 剩问题，法国分析机构 Alphaliner 表示， 集装箱船队今年将增长 8.3%，但是需 求增长仅为6.5%。航运经纪公司百力马

（Braemar Seascope）称，120,000标箱的 运力将于 2012 年被拆解，比 2011 年多 了 50%。 “目前，中国的拆船业市场处于活跃 状态。此外，拆船价格依然坚挺，虽然 去年的价格稍高，但仍低于其他一些区 域。”拆船协会的会长谢先生称。 中国去年的拆船量约为 200 万轻吨， 这一数字很可能在 2012 年再度出现。 经历了 2008 年的金融危机后，许多造 船厂和修船厂将拆船业务添加到他们的业 务范围中，但是正如谢先生所说，这并不 是一个轻而易举的任务。 “中国的拆船能力目前还在适当的范 围内。事实上，自 2008 年以来，一些造 船厂和修船厂就已将其业务延伸至拆船领 域，但很显然，并不是每家造船厂或修船 厂都能轻松顺利地步入拆船业。它们之间 的差别很大，比如对安全、环境、拆船设 备和工作场所的要求。”谢先生说。 提高他们的绿色环保资质目前被视为 中国拆船厂的首要任务。为此，国务院

拆船 ■ ■ ■

Grieg Green 挪威公司Grieg Green成立于两年前，

全力证明自己环保的 航运业陷入赤字漩涡 清理了一批违法拆船厂，要求所有船舶都 必须在码头上或船坞内拆解。随着香港公 约的生效（该公约要求更为环保的船舶拆 解），中国处在了一个有利位置。预计中 央在不久后将宣布进一步的环保激励措施 和法令。 并非所有人都对政府关注更环保、更 安全的拆船场所感到高兴。天津天马拆船 的一位消息人士透露，必要的设施升级已 经让船厂耗费巨额资金，在每轻吨船舶价 格高企的时刻，今年的利润充其量也只能 达到最低水平。 尽管如此，仍有一批新的拆船厂争相 开业。最近，中国的大连船舶重工集团有 限公司 (DSIC)、鞍钢和新加坡的太平船务 有限公司 (PIL) 在大连长兴岛为他们合资 的大型拆船综合设施举行了奠基仪式。

DSIC 拥有该合资企业 67% 的股 份，PIL 拥有 18%，而鞍钢则拥有 15%。 该合资企业的年产能为 75 艘 50,000 载重 吨到 300,000 载重吨的船舶，占地 100 万 平方米，可谓是世界上同类别中最大的工 厂。不仅如此，耗资 30 亿人民币的船厂 还将注重维修业务，每年能够处理最多 90 艘船。 在大连合资企业动工的同时，另一处 大型设施的详细情况也已揭晓。 舟山长宏国际产业园很快将建造据称 为全球最大的拆船厂。 二期项目包括 1,800 米的岸线和两个分 别长 610 米和 450 米的巨型干船坞，将耗 资约 30 亿人民币。 一旦全面投入运营，该设施每年可处 理 150 万轻吨，还将使用这些金属来建造 和修理船只。 “中国看来是这一行业的长期竞争 者，我们不断看到船厂进行改进以及新船 厂的出现。”中国拆船业专家 Grieg Green 公司首席执行官 Petter Heier 如是说。

为船东提供一站式服务，帮助他们在 中国进行拆船业务，这里汇集了世 界上最环保的拆船厂。船厂经过了审 查，价格经过了调整，Grieg Green负 责来自世界各地船舶的最终决定权。 问题是市场低迷；全力证明自己环保 的航运业陷入了赤字漩涡。 Grieg Green的首席执行官Petter Heier向 SinoShip 承认：“我们的增 长低于预期，这主要是因为货运市 场疲软，许多船东的财务状况非常 紧张。” Heier坦言：“因为财务状况不佳而 降低环保投入是很普遍的现象。”他 还表示：“一些假装环保的船东在拆 解其船舶和执行相关流程时都偷工 减料。” 与印度次大陆相比，中国的费率 一直较低。但是，许多因素都会影响 对船舶最终目的港所做的决定。最后 卸货港是一个主要因素，因为对于达 到一定规格的船舶而言，如果最后停 靠港口在中国，那么给船舶装上压舱 物运至次大陆在财务上是不可行的。 但 Grieg Green看来，还有一个主要因 素，那就是绩效和风险最小化。Grieg 所说的绩效是指以有效控制的方式执 行拆船流程并考虑安全和环境因素。 中国的大多数船厂都配有基础设施并 制订了不同的程序，可实现更高的绩 效水平。Heier说，考虑到可能出现的 财务纷争，船东将船舶交付至中国船 厂所承担的风险较小。

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■ ■ ■ 专题

如何最有效地发挥中国船员 Sam Chambers与全球领先的船舶管理人讨论中国船员配备方面的关键问题

船

员短缺危机在世界范围内仍 然没有得到缓解。中国不一 定是解决这一人力短缺问题 的灵丹妙药，因为中国大量 的新造船舶需要配备大批海事院校培训 生。同意还是反对？ 总的来说，我们国际船舶管理人座谈

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小组的成员都赞同我们的开场陈述。这 些管理人一共管理着全球 2,000 多艘船只。 香港优尼万船舶管理有限公司（Univan Ship Management）首席执行官 Bjorn Hojgaard 指出，中国的商船队规模现已位列世界第 三，在谈到造船厂新造的大量船只时，他 警告说：“新增吨位加大了供求之间的缺

口，现在能够供应的合格船员人数不足以 填补这一缺口。”他表示，经济蓬勃发展， 船员出海几年之后便会开始从事待遇优厚 的岸上工作。随着国内航线对船员的需求 不断增长，越来越多当地船东上调了船员 的工资，使船员行情普遍看涨，迫使外国 船东不得不转向其它新兴市场。

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中国可与世界最佳水 平竞争 Schulte）首席执行官 Rajaish Bajpaee 坚持 他的看法：“中国未必是解决问题的出 路，其它国家也不一定。” 长驻香港的 Bajpaee 断言，今天真正的 挑战在于供应船员的国家之间在培训标 准和教育体系上存在很大差异，这对刚 参加工作的海事院校毕业生的基本技能产 生了重大影响。对不同国家海事院校输出 的培训生，真正应该关心的是素质，而不 是人数。 贝仕船舶管理有限公司拥有约 450 名 中国船员，近年来的增长已达两位数。船 员都是由公司的船员服务中心负责筛选 和招募。

中国船员有哪些优点？ 概括地说，我们的小组成员喜欢中国船员 的勤奋刻苦，而且随着全球贸易向中国倾 斜，船上有中国船员对在中国港口停靠时 很有助益。 “接受了适当程度和水平的培训和教育 后，中国的船员完全可以和世界上最优 秀的船员媲美。”东茂的 Ostenfeldt 认为。 他们展现了良好的领导能力、工作勤奋而 且适应力强，他说。 华林的 Frank 则提到他们的成本较低， 同时还说他们对海运职业表现出极大的热 忱，这对寻求长期雇员并在船上保持船员 一致性的公司来说，这一优势非常有利。 优尼万的 Hojgaard 欣赏中国船员的协 作精神、真诚和服从，同时也说，如果 船上配备的都是中国船员，他们可以作 为一个团队紧密合作。优尼万在大连拥 有自己的常驻代表机构，现有约 200 名 中国船员。 MTM 船务管理公司老板 Vijay Rangroo 则称，中国人最大的优势是他们的人口数 量。“大批受过教育的青年人为招募提供 了良好的基础。”他说。

中国船员有哪些弱点？

的才干 东茂船舶管理有限公司（Thome Ship Management）总经理 Carsten Ostenfeldt 也 表示同意，称在“很久以后”中国船员才 能真正填补国际商船队的缺口，因为在未 来很长一段时间内，中国船舶对中国船员 的需求将消化掉大部分人员供应。 “中国船员人数必须增长，同样海事院

校培训生人数也需要增长。”华林船舶 管理有限公司（Wallem Shipmanagement） 船队人事总监 Simon Frank 解释说。Frank 建议，在高素质中国船员人数实现增长之 前，海事院校培训生人数也必须增长，这 是发展中国高素质船员人才库的第一步。 贝仕船舶管理有限公司（Bernhard

我们调查的经理人的回答集中在两件事 上：语言和态度。MTM 的 Rangroo 在这个 话题上很直截了当，他说：“他们的弱点 是对安全和合规问题的态度。” 优尼万的 Hojgaard 谈到了雇用中国船员 所面临的固执的思想问题。“中国船员自 视甚高，认为自己技术过硬又聪明睿智，” 他说，“曾有过这样的例子，由于思想固 执，他们不愿意服从命令。多数中国船员 英语水平偏低。评分表明他们对安全规章 没有妥善遵守，同时书面文字能力较差。” 华林的 Frank 对高级甲板船员和轮机人 员的“商业头脑”有所顾虑，认为需要加 强。华林公司青岛中心的内部培训就包括 船上商业意识和效率。 Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 船员

华林青岛培训中心为船员提供增值培 训服务，其合资公司青岛远洋华林国际船 舶管理有限公司的总部也位于青岛。 华林近三分之一的船员是中国籍，约 为 3,000 人。而在五年前仅为 500 人。

中国正变得日益富裕。这一点对 于申请海上工作的人数是否会有 显著影响？ 当一个国家走向富裕，市场上有更多就 业机会与选择时，航海对于年轻人来说 就不那么有吸引力了，这是一种自然的 趋势或结果，Rajaish Bajpaee 表示，原因 如下：工作中存在的风险；长时间远离家 人；以及海上职业远离公众。 但是，Bajpaee 认为，考虑到中国的人 口规模，与上海、北京、深圳这些大城市 不同的是，很多地方还处于经济发展的初 期阶段，中国船员人数短缺的问题在可预 见的未来还不是那么紧迫。而且，由于政 府制订了计划，要将中国（主要是上海） 发展为国际航运中心，将会有大量颇具吸 引力的岸上海事工作机会出现。 “由于航运的形象问题以及多数家庭都只 有一个孩子，新申请加入商船运输行业的 人员似乎在减少。”Hojgaard 也承认。拥有 航海经验的中国高级船员人数也显著下降， 他们更愿意留在岸上，而不是出海。 相反，东茂的 Ostenfeldt 认为海上工作 对于中国人来说仍将是具有吸引力的就 业选择。

他们的弱点就是对安 全和合规问题的态度 28

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如何提高中国船员的英文水平？ 这一话题一直作为中国船员的致命弱点被 提出来。而且一般来讲，这一问题还将 继续存在。 “语言一直是一个大问题；基本英语水 平必须提高。”东茂的 Ostenfeldt 说。 “要实现整体提高，需要不断培 训。”Hojgaard 说。

中国政府还要采取哪些行动才能 让中国船员对国际船东和管理人 更有吸引力？ 中英船务有限公司（Anglo-Eastern）首席 执行官 Peter Cremers 敏锐抓住了这个问 题的重点，称政府应该提供与国内公司竞 争的公平环境，同时应该允许海外公司直 接招募船员，让国际公司可以更多地参与 选拔过程。 “应该在各个层次上提供更多培 训。”Cremers 补充说。中英船务在上海 和广州设有代表处，有超过 500 名的中国 船员在 25 艘船舶上服务。 为推进如 Cremers 所期待的培训，贝仕 的 Bajpaee 建议与国际知名机构合作，以 进一步发展现代化海事培训中心，这样不 论中国船员哪里有欠缺，他们的技能都可 以得到有效提升，同时也提高了他们的吸 引力。和 Cremers 一样，Bajpaee 认为中 国将人事代理业务向外国人开放对在吸引 国际船东和管理人雇用中国船员方面至关 重要，只要他们自己能够直接雇用、培养 和留住人才（他们将人才视为长期资产） ，他们将很愿意在这方面投资。 优尼万的 Hojgaard 为北京降低船员税 负的举措叫好，同时也呼吁政府向国际参 与者们发放船员代理许可。

华林的 Frank 警告说，任何教育机构 都必须将 MLC 纳入考量。 然后就是政府行事问题，新加坡东茂 公司的 Ostenfeldt 就有感触。“我们认为 中国政府通过简化签证和文书工作可以为 船员提供更多帮助；但要让船员轻松地 在中国入境和出境还是很困难，这也包 括中国船员，我们希望情况很快会有所改 善。”他说。

招募企业的观点 从事航运业招聘的 Faststream Recruitment 亚洲区总经理 Mark Robertshaw 表示，对中国船员的紧俏 需求丝毫没有减退的迹象。中国已经 是全球五大船员来源地之一，在评级 和初级职衔中占有极大比例。 “中国海事院校开始加快培训，让 船员能够快速通过评级以满足需求， 船东需要承诺为这些职员提供相应的 海上工作时间，以确保他们具备实际 经验。”Robertshaw 说。 由于人才库主要集中于中国的某 些省份和城镇，同一地区的人在同一 船队或船只上航行，因而忠诚度更有 保障，这一般是指中国船东拥有的船 只，Robertshaw 说。这意味着，在国 内市场之外，如果船东未通过船员代 理机构在中国本地设立管理公司或派 驻人员，他们将失去招募到众多中国 船员的机会。

■ ■ ■ 专题

造船业者加入 中国洪流 在首尔，Sam Chambers发现，大型韩国造船厂不仅都对中国存有 戒心，还对中国的投资者严防死守。

造

船工作实质上是大规模的 工厂作业，因此，当一个 国家的人工成本变得过于 高昂时，人口因素将不可 避免地导致接力棒的不断移交。它曾从 欧洲移交给日本，而后由韩国接手，目 前这一棒即将传给中华人民共和国。 但是，韩国并没有悄无声息地让 步— 其在离岸和 LNG 领域占据领导 地位的一流造船厂迅速转型，使其在 去年夺回了于 2010 年失去的造船桂 冠。但事实是，在未来几年里，韩国 造船厂将继续向大批中国造船厂拱手 让出市场份额— 价格、人口和政治， 所有因素均注定了中国最终将占主导 地位，这种主导地位甚至包括高科技 离岸领域— 中国造船厂过去几年里在 这一领域取得了令人瞩目的进展（参 见第9页）。 但是，韩国顶尖的造船厂非常聪明， 他们察觉到了这一涌动的浪潮，目前全 都亲临中国，建立了不同规模的造船 厂，以此稳固他们的势力。 许多韩国企业从造船业供应链的部件 开始，提供廉价船体分段运至韩国。 和许多外国人一样，韩国人一直非常 关注禁止海外企业在中国造船厂中拥有 多数股份的中国旧法规。当两年前这一 法规取消时，更多韩国人涌入更廉价的 中国。现在，四大韩国造船厂均已在中 华人民共和国站稳了脚跟。 位于烟台的大宇造船与海洋工程公 司（山东）（亦称为 DSSC）是韩国大

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宇造船和海洋工程公司 （DSME） 的子 公司，它就是这一演变的范例。该公司 从船体分段建造商的身份起步，而后在 2011 年 3 月转型，当时它赢得了第一 批船舶订单。它获得了大批 58,000 载 重吨散货船的订单，这些船在今年开始 交付。 “我们希望扩大我们的产品组合，尽 快增加一些中型油轮。”烟台的发言人 告诉 SinoShip。 与此同时，三星重工在从船体分段 制造商向造船厂转型时可没那么幸运。 它在中国设有两个船体分段建造厂，分 别位于宁波和长江三角洲的另一地区。 它大约在两年前就尝试提供中型散货船 和油轮（虽然它并没有大力推行这一举 措），至今它的第一笔船舶订单远未带 来足够的回报。 “我们仍然忙于船体分段和一般设备 的生产。”宁波一位消息人士表示，“ 如果有船舶订单，那很好，但我们同时 也有大量的工作要做，而且新造船只的 市场依然比较萧条。但是，我们对新业 务非常欢迎。”

2206 亿美元

中国和韩国去年达成的双向贸易额

它的北边是青岛现代造船有限公司 (QHS)。该船厂于 2005 年创立，是与 现代集团共同组建的合资企业。当船厂 于几年前陷入财务困境时，现代重工 (HHI）（令人困惑的是，它与现代集团 没有关联）于 2010 年 2 月接管了该船 厂。与 HHI 位于韩国蔚山、包含十个船 坞的工厂相比，该船厂专门生产小型多 功能船舶和产品运输船，并获得了可观 的订单量。 目前为止提及的所有船厂都是小型船 厂，他们为其韩国母公司提供因尺寸太 小而不在本土设计建造的船舶类型，但 他们开辟了另外一类有利可图的收入来 源。再往北，就是迄今为止最大的韩国 投资了。 STX 大连位于长兴岛，占地逾 550 万

韩国企业在中国 ■ ■ ■

STX 大连交付另外一艘 58,000 载重吨散货船

平方米，仅面积而言就可称得上是世界 上最大的造船厂，也堪称世界最大的干 船坞之一，码头沿岸约 5 公里。该船 厂于 2008 年投入运营，主要建造散货 船、汽车运输船和产品运输船；它最近 也收到了小型集装箱船的订单，同时也 为 STX 的韩国船厂供应船体分段和发 动机。 “STX 将继续按照韩国处理高科技订 单、大连生产更多基本船舶类型的政策 发展其船厂。”首尔的一名 STX 员工 解释说。 韩国人在海外，尤其是在中国的谨慎 投资可让其改革位于本国的船厂，从而 将更多精力投入到更高价值的船舶和离 岸市场中。一旦市场最终反弹，预计韩 国人将扩大其在中国的基础设施。

自由贸易交易 五月中旬，中国和韩国开始进行有关自由贸易交易的正式会谈，这一话题已计划了约七 年之久。 中国的国内生产总值为 7.3 万亿美元，是世界第二大经济体，也是韩国最大的贸易伙 伴。考虑到这两个位于亚洲东北地区的国家到 1992 年才建立正式外交关系，这样的发展 堪称神速。韩国是中国的第三大贸易伙伴。双向贸易金额在 2011 年达到了 2206 亿美元， 远远超过韩国与美国的 1008 亿美元和与欧盟的 1031 亿美元。此外，双向贸易有望在 2015 年达到 3000 亿美元。 “我们目前踏上了艰难的谈判之路。”韩国贸易部长朴泰镐在与中国商务部长陈德铭会 晤后，在五月初于北京召开的一次新闻发布会上这样表示。 “几年来的准备工作表明，韩国与中国之间的自由贸易交易谈判不可能永远一帆风顺。” 两国政府联合进行的研究表明，若达成协议，交易可促进韩国整体出口量提高 5.5%， 而中国的出口量将增加近 4%。

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■ ■ ■ 上海

看不透的愿景

模糊不清的2020年愿景 驻上海记者Paul French探讨上海立志在 8 年内成为国际海运和金融中心所面临的问题 上海长期以来一直强烈期望 能成为国际金融中心 (IFC) 和 全球海运中心。这一理想一直 是上海地方政府高层所抱持的 目标。显然，上海已经是全球 主要的集装箱港口之一，但从 船舶保险和其他服务来看，它 还未能成为全面的海运中心。 同时，上海距离成为国际金融 中心的目标也非常遥远。 最终，上海意识到了全球 海运中心不仅仅是运送金属集 装箱而已。毕竟，伦敦作为国 际航运中心的地位毋庸置疑， 但如今其集装箱港口的角色已 经逐渐弱化。上海一直以来 的弱项在于航运服务—–融 资、租赁、保险、会计、法务 和职员培训全都落后于国际标 准。上海面临的另一个问题是 它在环保方面未能跟上其他全 球海运中心的步伐—由于港 口效率低下、官僚作风严重， 上海港口的碳排放和整体成本 居高不下。 2011 年成立的上海浦东国 际航运服务中心旨在部分解决 32

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服务欠缺和官僚作风问题。但 是，打破原有桎梏本就不是一 件易事，何况该中心的大部分 （如果不是全部的话）核心组 成部分仍是政府控制的部门， 例如上海海事局、上海国际航 运仲裁院等。精简和效率本就 不是政府的强项。

能消除，这将妨碍其发展。 根据世界银行的定义，国际 金融中心指国际金融业务能够 在此便捷、高效地开展业务并 实现盈利的中心。中国政府宣 布了在 2020 年将上海打造为 国际金融中心的目标。上海显 然是非常重要的—它拥有一

交易品种、交易工具和交易系 统全部到位是打造国际金融 中心的根本 但是，对国内集装箱费率采 用更为高效的网上交易，取代 了之前的场内定价，诸如此类 的创新精简了一部分流程。此 外，由上海金融业联合会成立 的船舶融资委员会也将有助于 提高上海在全球船舶融资市场 中的份额（目前仅为1%）。多 数人认为，税收、价格和成本 方面的灵活性是上海成为全球 航运中心的关键。但是，在上 海，政府对航运业（或者任何 其他产业）的强大控制却不可

个大型的国内证券交易所、金 融期货交易所、黄金交易所， 是众多国内和外资银行办事处 所在地，也是中国人民银行（ 中国央行）第二总部所在地。 目前，上海的国际金融中 心战略停留在拥有一个证券 交易所之上，但这是远远不够 的。从香港身上我们看到，一 个证券交易所（而且是国际证 券交易所，而不是上海这样仅 仅只有国内证券交易所）只是 第一步，交易品种、交易工具

和交易系统全部到位是打造国 际金融中心的根本。人民币尚 未实现自由兑换，上海的交易 组合仍然局限于中国境内的人 民币资产，外币也无法兑换为 人民币以进行交易。这是一个 巨大的障碍。并且，在中国， 货币是一个高度政治化的问 题。正是政治阻碍了经济的发 展，影响了上海迈向国际金融 中心的步伐。 同样，正是政治阻碍了不 同体系的繁荣发展—如果不 能提高企业透明度，上海将无 法在短期内成为真正的国际金 融中心。 最后，值得一提的是，中 国可能希望将力量集中于一个 地区，仅将一个地点打造为国 际金融中心，并在政策上予以 倾斜。目前，北京、上海、成 都、深圳、重庆的官员和当地 支持者都纷纷声称将把自己的 城市打造为国际金融中心。显 然，中国不可能拥有五个国际 金融中心。还是选出一个，并 对它全力以赴吧。

台北 ■ ■ ■

港口愿景 台北记者 Joshua Samuel Brown 注视着海岛瞬息万变的港口风景 在SinoShip China Shipping Network，我们快速 成长的 Linked In 网页上，一 位会员非常体贴地感谢我们 详细介绍了中国不计其数的 港口发展情况，包括沿海和 中国江河港口的情况。中国 港口的发展在数量上继续让 人眼花缭乱和迷惑不解，但 鲜有报道的是，在海峡对岸的 台湾，正在加大对码头基础 设施的建设力度。台湾的货 物吞吐量与大陆相比微不足 道，例如，全岛公布的集装 箱吞吐量去年为 1342 万标准 箱，也就是说，与青岛港的 数字相等。不管怎样，计划已 在进行当中，即将迎来更多 的货物。而且时机把握得恰到 好处，各大港口组成一个统一 的公司将更有竞争力。 从3月1日起，高雄、基 隆、台中和花莲四个港务局 组成了台湾港务股份有限公 司 (Taiwan International Ports Corporation, TIPC) 和海事及港 务管理局。 公司化的 TIPC 负责管理四 个港口，而整合后的海事及港

务管理局则继续履行各局的监 管和政策制订工作。 “公司将台湾所有国际商 业港合并在一起，以提高港口 的竞争力、整合发展资源并对 海外港口的商机进行投资。” 高雄在一份新闻稿中这样说， 同时还表示：“TIPC 的诞生 标志着台湾航运业新时代的开 端。TIPC 将有效整合四个下 属港口的资源、优势和功能， 形成一个单一的协作平台。这 个平台将有效分配任务和业 务，同时促进对外部竞争性挑 战的协同应对。” 在对政策的调整中，港口 将目光放得更为长远，不再局 限于吞吐量统计数字，而是开 始考虑货物吞吐量创造的经济 价值。经济价值和吞吐量合 在一起指导着 TIPC 的经营战 略。提高吞吐量经济价值的努 力将以扩大四个港口的自由贸 易区 (FTZ) 功能为主。 而且，未来港口将发展更 多特殊领域，而不是围着相同 的货物打转：例如，基隆将侧 重于邮轮，台中作为第一港将 更多关注汽车业，高雄将努力

提升其地区集装箱转运业务。 台湾的港口几年来一直近 乎满负荷运转。高雄自从去年 1 月开放了新的国际码头集装 箱中心起，2011 年集装箱吞吐 量创下三年新高。 高雄的吞吐量在 2011 年增 长至 964 万标准箱，而 2010 年是 918 万标准箱。虽然吞吐 量出现增长，但高雄年最高吞 吐能力为 1000 万标准箱，为 了避免出现积压以及吸引国际 港口运营商进行投资，高雄港 不得不进行大刀阔斧的改造。 同时，去年台中和台北港 口集装箱吞吐量分别达到了创 历史新高的 138 万标准箱和 65 万标准箱。但是基隆港在吞吐 量上出现了 0.8% 的下滑，至 175 万标准箱。 高雄一直在疏浚其第四码 头，以确保 1 万标准箱以上的 船只能够停靠。第三码头也在 进行类似的作业。高雄国际集

装箱码头 (ICT) 第二期和南星 项目 (Nanxing Project) 的工作 预计今年将提速。由于马士基 空出了其前往厦门的泊位，高 雄最近迎来了好彩头，有消息 称，中远集运 (Cosco) 和日本 川崎汽船株式会社 (K Line） 正在商讨租用第六码头的事 宜。如果这些协商最终能够成 功，将标志着大陆首次在台湾 港口投资。同样，TIPC 现在 是名副其实的港口运营商，制 订了投资华南地区二线港口的 宏伟计划。 同时，台北港正在进行耗 资 5.58 亿美元的扩建工程， 该工程将持续到 2017 年。该 港口 2009 年才建成，开放了 一个 110 万标准箱的深水集装 箱港口。 基隆港的扩建包括一个 48 公顷的集装箱码头、一个 123 公顷的离岸储存区和一个同样 为 123 公顷的集装箱码头。

未来，港口将发展更多特殊领 域，而不是围着相同的货物打转 Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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Posidonia 4-8 June 2012, Metropolitan Expo, Athens Greece

A unique blend of business and social interactions at the heart of Shipping Be part of the great Posidonia experience at a state of the art new venue

The International Shipping Exhibition

Organisers: Posidonia Exhibitions SA, e-mail: posidonia@posidonia-events.com

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香港 ■ ■ ■

持乐观态度的新任行政长官对香 港海运业的发展大计胸有成竹

新纪元，更美好的时代？ 香港通讯记者对船运业高管开展了一项民意调查，了解其对新任特首梁振英领导下的香港的预期 来自大陆港口的竞争加剧， 双重征税造成难题，更严苛的 《乘风约章》已箭在弦上，加 之反竞争法的潜在挑战，香港 的船运和海事行业翘首以待新 的行政长官。 即将履职的新领导人梁振 英 (CY Leung) 与船运业的联 系比上届政府更为密切，这 些联系可能会于行政系统中 加以提炼，帮助其与船运业 开展合作，香港船东协会常务 董事长包荣 (Arthur Bowring) 表示。 “他了解我们，这一点振 奋人心。但他是否会做出有助 于我们发展的举措仍需拭目以 待。”包荣表示。 香港政府在其最近的预算 中提供了一些资金和激励措 施，旨在促进船运业的发展。 尽管香港的船运业已非常发 达，但该行业仍有一些问题亟 待解决。 包荣认为，首要问题是双 重征税协议—这一协议对大 部分船运公司的人员配备造 成严重影响—以及自发订立

的《乘风约章》的某种立法 架构问题，船运业通过该约章 承诺使用低硫燃料，这给该行 业每年招致的成本高达 300 万 美元。 作为一国两制研究中心的 主席，梁至少参与了两篇研究 报告的撰写，探讨香港作为国 际海运中心的发展。据研究中 心透露，香港集装箱吞吐量的 增长速度近年来大大降低，“ 香港海运业的改造和升级迫在 眉睫。”

海运服务中心。” 这意味着将扩大所有服务 的范围和深度，包括船舶登记 和融资、保险及其它服务。 香港运输及房屋局局长郑 汝桦无暇接受采访，但一名发 言人指出，该部门将“继续与 海运和港口行业紧密合作”， 以实现“巩固我们作为国际海 运中心和世界一流港口的地 位”的目标。 本地行业面临的困难与日 俱增，其面临的竞争愈加激

香港自身的相对竞争力正 在下降 一国两制研究中心助理总 研究主任方舟表示，梁对这一 领域尤其关注，他还指出，梁 担任香港城市大学理事会主席 时曾于 2010 年参与创建了海 商法研究中心。 “他非常重视香港船运和 海运行业的改造。”方舟表 示。“他想把这座城市发展为

烈。香港定期班轮协会秘书 Roberto Giannetta 认为，随着 其它城市特别是中国大陆的港 口竞争力不断加强且效率日益 提高，香港自身的相对竞争力 正在下降。 Giannetta 预计梁接任后政 府和行业间的关系并不会发生 任何改变，但政府和海运业保

持良好关系将会在未来几年中 非常有用。这些关系不但有助 于推进《乘风约章》，还可能 限制反竞争立法的潜在影响， 这项工作已开展了若干年。 大部分进出香港的货船因 多家公司之间的协议才得以 运作。 “严格来讲，该法律会对 船运业造成影响。”Giannetta 表示。“按照该法律的规定， 这些协议和联盟都将是非法 的。” 反竞争法的司法权限中包 含对船运行业的豁免。这些地 方包括新加坡、日本或者英 国等。法律议案如在 6 月前完 成，届时现任立法委员会将任 满，该法律可在未来 18 至 24 个月生效。目前的法律允许对 特定行业进行豁免，如果这些 行业可以提出合理的理由。 但是赌注颇高，按照提议 的法案，触犯法律的公司最高 可被处以全球收入的 10% 作 为外罚，该数额可能是香港 单个运营公司业务收入的约 20 倍。 Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 书籍

前进路上的拐点 针对廉价的中国制造业已告终结的话题，Paul French对一 本书的观点提出了挑战，同时对另一部分析更为透彻的著作 大加赞扬 《The End of Cheap China》（译名：廉价中国的终结）（John Wiley 2012 年出版） 作者：Shaun Rein 《Sustaining China's Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis》 （译名：全球金融危机后的中国经济持续增长）（Peterson Institute 2012年出版） 作者：Nicholas Lardy

图书业面临的最大问题是前 置时间长—从作者动笔或打 出第一个字开始，到书籍最 终在各地书店或网上与读者见 面，中间可能会经历很长一段 时间。因此不可避免地，在构 思时极为独到的见解，到了读 者在机场书店翻阅时，已经变 得众所周知、显而易见。 Shaun Rein 的《The End of

备受挤压。Rein 还忽略了目 前导致中国经济增长放缓的 一些关键因素，尤其是中国 过去 30 年经历的人口“黄 金时期”即将终结和急速的 社会老龄化趋势，而 20 世 纪 70 年代开始实行的计划 生育政策进一步加速了这一 趋势。 《The End of Cheap

中国家庭存款补贴了提供给企业 的低廉贷款 Cheap China》在出版时也遭 遇了这样的尴尬局面。Rein 是常驻上海的一名市场研究 人员，他在书中概述了中国 成本结构的演变和整体上升趋 势。劳动力价格、土地成本 和租金、大宗商品成本—所 有这些都导致了中国制造并 销往美国和欧洲的产品的单 位成本上升。 Rein 分析了其中的部分原 因，包括工资需求等，并认 为中国居民可支配收入的上 升将为外国品牌进入中国提 供机会。但是，他忽略了生 活成本的上升幅度会大大超 过工资增长幅度（在某些行 业已经显现）的可能性，这 意味着中国新兴的中产阶级 可能在开始打算消费之前就 36

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China》重奇闻轶事，轻严 谨分析，当然，这也是作者 的风格。面对廉价中国制造 的终结，船运和物流行业的 人员自有良策—继续寻找 廉价的乐土—印度、孟加 拉国、缅甸、越南。目前而 言，一本叫做《The Rise of Cheap Asia (ex-China)》的书 （译名：廉价亚洲制造（中 国除外）的崛起）可能会更 有用。 如果说 Rein 重轶事轻分 析，则资深中国问题观察家 Nicholas Lardy 则用严谨的 分析撰写了一本通俗易懂的 书籍。Lardy 认为中国的“ 失衡”源自两个问题—人 民币汇率（Rein 完全忽略了 中国经济中这一突出因素）

和国内利率（或者说无国内 利率）。Lardy 的看法相对 简单—继续推进人民币自由 化，放开利率。中国极低的 利率意味着大量低廉的贷款 （看，中国在某些方面还是 有廉价产品的），但这并没 回馈给普通储户值得一提的 回报—换句话说，中国的家 庭存款都补贴了提供给企业 的低廉贷款了。这种现象被 称为“金融压制”，在韩国、 中国台湾和其他一些国家和 地区的快速增长计划中也有 所体现。 但是，Lardy 认为，中国 政府在金融压制的深度、广 度、时间长度方面都走得更 远，这导致了中国前所未有 的收入不平等现象。这一副 作用对中国的长期发展并无 好处—普通家庭的储蓄没 有获得利息，因此他们只能 更多地储蓄，从而减少了可 支配收入，这样就难以刺激 消费（很不幸，没有给试图 从不再便宜的中国市场上获 得利益的美国品牌留下零用 钱）。这一状况将会持续很 长时间，因为不断贬值的储 蓄意味着人们更难实现其养 老金和医保目标，而如此巨 额的资本被廉价贷给企业， 将导致企业倾向于投资资本 密集型产业，而非劳动密

集型产业。因此资本流向了 采矿业和大宗商品开发，当 然，还有中国最热衷的建筑 和房地产业。最后的结果是 基础设施行业受益，而创新 和创造力受损。 Lardy 认为中国存在着金融 压制的循环怪圈，这主要由 利率和人民币汇率造成，中 国需要打破这一现象。金融 压制是胡锦涛和温家宝领导 的现任政府的关键政策。二 位即将于 10 月卸任，显然， 技术高官习近平将成为下一 代领导核心。人民币汇率和 利率松绑已不远矣。

意见 ■ ■ ■

吸引人才要趁早 一个健康的行业需要吸引顶尖人才为之奉献，这意味着要尽早让人们相信，船运业是一个值得从事的伟大 事业，Bei Hong 说。 “如果其它工作都失败了， 你可以尝试去教书。”这是很 久很久以前我的就业指导老师 对我说过的一段话。他从他的 学生那里永远不会得到很大的 尊重。我们，毕竟是要走出去 征服世界的，一个只在学术圈 里呆着从没真正经历过任何事 情的人，怎么能够指导我们要 向哪里发展才会有前途呢？提 到船运业时，从来没人认为这 是一个值得追求的职业。和很 多投入这场游戏，且在商务圈 没有家庭背景的人一样，我闯 入这个行业纯属偶然。 上个月与一群即将离开学 校的年轻人聊天（他们当中没 人计划从事海上或岸上海事职 业）后，我陷入深思，开始回 顾之前船运业的兴衰是如何影 响我们行业的就业情况的。上 世纪 80 年代中期那段令人绝 望的岁月，不仅使这个行业流 失了大批经验丰富的专业人 员，也让企业不愿为年轻和 刚走出校门的人才进行投资， 其他行业的前途看起来要光明 许多，尤其是银行业开始突破 其传统角色，似乎可以提供利 润丰厚、光鲜亮丽的职业。不 过，在那一方面，时代已经变 了。就和超额订购新吨位造成 的问题需要花很多年才能消化 一样，正是上世纪 80 年代的 招募不足造成了今天高级管理 人员的短缺，对帮助行业摆 脱当前的低迷局面造成不利 影响。 我们因为未能向年轻人传 递足够讯息，让他们了解到 无论从哪个方面来讲，船运 业都可以成为一个伟大的事 业，而错失的人数有多少？ 眼不见心不烦，这是对我们 行业非常贴切的描述：海盗 和漏油是少数能引起主流媒

体兴趣并被认为具有新闻价 值的事情，但对我们的业务 他们却缺乏热情和兴趣，只 有你在说明我们每一个人有 多么离不开海上运输的时候 他们才会表现出关注。

未曾变过。但一旦你真正引起 关注时，展示给别人看—不 论年轻的还是年老的—让他 们看一看造船厂，或让他们了 解到船运业涉及的各方面拥有 多么惊人的规模时，你就能把

让他们了解到船运业涉及的各方 面拥有多么惊人的规模，你就可以 将火花转变成火焰 要让船运业听上去具有诱 惑力并不容易：社交媒体时 代，年轻的亿万富翁比神秘的 家族企业更有魅力。这些家族 企业在全球运输着肮脏的原材 料，其运送方式基本上数百年

火花转变成火焰。 在地理或经济学课程上偶 尔会提到船运业，但是对于我 们这些以此为职业的人来说， 是时候开始为后继者奠定基 础了。亚洲各地海事博物馆的

发展（香港一如既往地走在前 列，现在新加坡和上海也紧随 其后）当然有一定帮助（编 者按：非常值得一提的是澳 门的博物馆，就在我们最喜欢 的 Alorcha 餐厅的马路对面） ，但是我们现在应该在教育上 大声疾呼。不要仅瞄准大学及 此类目标，那时已经太晚了。 我们应该让一些口才很好的船 运业人士走进学校教室，以第 一手资料告诉别人我们在做什 么。如果能够激励一些年轻人 立志成为海事院校学生、船舶 经纪人或将航运法作为其未来 法律事业的一个领域，就成功 了。归根结底，我们确实能够 提供比就业指导老师更好的工 作前景描述。 Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 意见

停工？ 驻北京记者 Li Deng Bai 表示，很多中国造船厂将会消失，但不会如一些人预想的那么多

历史上的大多数船运市场都 堪称混乱并且利润微薄，正因 如此，我们渴望能从中窥见一 丝光明和灿烂。2012 年，这 意味着深入发掘机遇并抓紧救 命稻草。 在有关中国的故事中，一 个令人瞩目的现象就是资本使 用效率的低下以及随之产生的 后果。房地产业是这一现象的 最佳范例。我们都听说过内蒙 古新建的鬼城，那里由自然资 源和制造业创造的巨额财富被 用于建造公寓，但它的周边环 境既不似伦敦的金丝雀码头， 也不是香港半山区。放眼望 去，看到的只是茫茫戈壁沙漠 中牧羊人的简陋小屋。对了， 这些公寓里面无人居住。当 然，最近三年曾参观过中国港 口的任何船运业从业者，都有 机会见证“计划经济”赤裸裸 38

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的低效率，一堆堆被风吹日晒 了很长时间的铁矿石等待着加 工。目前未使用的供应量已超 过 8000 万吨，即使比不上珠 穆朗玛，至少也相当于落基山

过去四年中，中国造船厂 如雨后春笋般涌现，大量新造 船舶下线，而根据某些统计数 据，2011 年供应量增速已经放 缓至仅仅 18%，这已大大超出

如果斯坦利·库布里克在世，肯 定不会错过在这片造船厂废墟上拍 电影的好机会 脉的一座小山丘了。 对于船运业的投资者而言， 关键的供应基本要素来自船舶。 我在上一期写到了 21 世纪头十 年那些疯狂的日子，我们搭乘中 国经济发展快车大获成功，并不 断超越。当然，对这场狂欢派 对，警钟已然敲响。订单如潮水 般涌向中国，在中国沿海地区筑 起一排排造船厂。

停滞不前的需求。可笑的是， 即使在这种情况下，一些人仍 能找到解救办法。这些新涌现 的中国造船厂来去匆匆，留下 大量没有交付的订单，但不久 之后，市场将会恢复到某种令 人乐见的平衡。 上个月对浙江一个造船小 镇的拜访让我了解到，这种观 点的背后有其原因。我陪同一

位船东前往该镇，讨论帮他们 建设造船厂的事宜（这件事他 们之前一直在做，同时还与一 家瑞士运营商签订了七年包船 合同）。我们将提供资金，我 原本以为对方会热情欢迎我们 的到来。结果，船厂老板对我 们的戒备和敌意让我颇感有 趣。他说：“我们今年没有 造船台了。”我疑惑地向他 办公室外的三个空置滑道望 去。“我们今年已经卖了 10 艘船。”他说。在一份中文报 纸上曾报道过，他们将三艘船 卖给了—自己。 当然，与我在这家造船厂 之外的所见所闻相比，这还不 足为奇。我们参观的这家，居 然是整个镇上唯一一家还在干 活的船厂。我们驱车前往机场 的路上，我数了数一共经过了 22 家造船厂。没有一家开工。 多数造船厂的部分甚至全部设 备都已经搬走。其中一家看起 来就象被汽油浇过后被彻底烧 毁的标准火灾现场。如果斯坦 利·库布里克在世，肯定不会 错过在这片工业废墟上拍电影 的好机会。 也许供应来得快去得也 快。但看看我们手上的数 据。在中国 190 余家造船厂 中，40% 的供应来自于两大国 有巨头，而中国人绝不会做的 一件事就是让他们的国有雇主 破产。实际上，从任何一方面 来看，中国 10-20% 的供应量 已经消亡，就像我参观过的那 个小镇一样。其余的呢？我们 需要坚持在笼罩中国上空的乌 云中寻找一抹亮色。

意见 ■ ■ ■

船运业走向环保 定期专栏作家 Manish Singh与您探讨船运业的环保需要 我的朋友买了一辆铃木 Hayabusa 摩托车。他骑着这 款全世界最快的量产摩托车， 缓慢行驶于孟买郊区拥挤的车 流中，在红灯前停下时，其他 摩托车手都向他投来艳羡的目 光，他们骑的都是较小的印 度-日本摩托车。他打开头盔 上的护目镜，期待旁人的赞美 和询问关于爱车卓越技术、强 劲动力、飞驰速度或高昂价格 等高水准问题，结果他被问到 的仅仅是印度大多数摩托车手 最经常面对的一个问题：“它 开了多少英里了？” 请原谅跑题了，但无论是 在本例中，还是在那些货物空 置、行驶缓慢的巨型超级动力 集装箱船上，过多的性能无论 对功能还是效率都显得毫无意 义。停止对无限度疯狂造船的 迷恋吧，适度提升船舶性能以 及燃料效率将成为船主、承租 人和运营商的首要考量，船运

吨位面临商业因素和一系列环 境、监管和社会因素的制约。 航运排放和效率问题日益受 到公众的密切关注，透明度越 来越高，关键绩效指标 (KPI) 受到监督，同时决策制定方向 也更加倾向于支持低排放、高 效率的船运吨位。 在排放方面，业界通过 MARPOL 公约开展了大量工 作，以降低硫氧化物和氮氧化 物的排放，并采用更高等级的 船用燃料，进行技术和基础设 施开发，以使液化天然气成为 广泛使用且具有商业可行性的 船用燃料。多数主要的燃料供 应国对所供应的燃料均采用了 严格的质量控制措施，同时全 球的燃料分析基础设施也日益 复杂精密。 如上表所示，无论是从工 厂本身还是通过船体都在优化 船用燃料燃烧过程和最大程度 减少能量损失，并在多个领域

过多的性能对功能和效率都毫 无意义

进行技术和设计改进。目前提 供的性能管理系统包括纵倾平 衡优化和船体污损监控系统 等，不仅采用非侵入式设计， 安装整合也极为简便，既适合 新造船舶，还可用于现有吨位 改造。此类投资的商业案例在 成本节约方面的效果常常立竿 见影，在用于远洋航行的大型 船舶中更为明显。

效率驱动 燃料 ● 添加剂 ● 注入 ● 乳化 ● 液化天然气 设计 ● 材料 ● 纵倾平衡 ● 螺旋桨 ● 船体界面 ● 空气动力学 ● 节能装置 ● 动力管理

船体 ● 设计 ● 涂层 ● 清洁 ● 空气润滑 最大程度减少能量损失 废热回收 ● 润滑剂 ● 船体清洁 ● 螺旋桨抛光 ●

辅助动力 船帆 ● 佛莱特纳转子 ● 太阳能板 ● 燃料电池 ●

运营 船员培训 ● 航线 ● 虚拟到达 ● 平舱 ● 维护 ● CODED ● ME 调试 ● 自动操舵仪 ●

效率损失并不仅仅是因为 硬件问题。船运业为了最大程 度提高效率，还投入了更为可 观的资金用以培训及提升海上 和岸上工作人员的意识。某些 节省领域实际上是长久性措 施，例如 ME 载荷管理、有效 的气象定线和对自动操舵设置 的细心管理等。另外一些商业 举措也进一步促进了船运效率 的提升，例如采用虚拟到达系 统，在遇到港口拥堵或装卸货 延迟等问题时，可减少动力 输出。 更为新颖的创意，例如铺 有太阳能板的甲板、用于船 体，船帆及转子的空气润滑系 统常常在行业内和公共媒体中 获得更多的关注。但是，正如 上文中那个骑摩托车的朋友 的轶事一样，随着船运业关键 利益相关方也开始密切关注船 运吨位的能源效率问题，我们 似乎迎来了转折点，这将确 保各界人士携手探讨上文中 提及的大多数领域。从这个角 度来看，船运业似乎变得更加 环保了。 Sinoship 2012年夏季刊

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