Sinoship Winter 2013 En

PSV prospects Herun Group profile winter 2013

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Shanghai special report

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Heading upstream Brightoil’s chairman charts new course

CSBC’s remarkable resurrection Greathorse Shipping exclusive interview Shale gas and China Newbuild supervisors poll on Chinese yards

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CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars 3 Editor’s Comment 4 Economy 7 Lines

A ship built with poor detailing and construction standards will have endless trouble and quickly gain an industry reputation

9

—Wallem Ship Management’s Ray McNamara

9 Yards 13 Offshore

Speculators like PSVs as they are easier to build and the resale margins are high

15 Finance 17 Commodities 18 Logistics 19 Cruise

13

— M3 Marine’s Mike Meade

■ ■ ■ Profiles 21 Dr Sit Kwong Lam 23 Yu Songbo 24 Xu Zunwu

The upstream sector will be the major driver for Brightoil’s future growth

25 Jack Hsu

— Brightoil’s Dr Sit Kwong Lam

■ ■ ■ Features 27 Dry Bulk 31 Propulsion 34 Insurance 36 Shanghai

■ ■ ■ Hubs

24

21

Previously, you could expect a ship with a life cycle of 25 years. Now owners are scrapping as young as 15-years-old — Greathorse Shipping’s Henry Chiang

40 Dalian 41 Taipei 42 Hong Kong

■ ■ ■ Reviews

The story of the ecoship still has to be proven — Bernhard Schulte’s Rajaish Bajpaee

43 Books

■ ■ ■ Opinions 44 Andrew Craig-Bennett 45 Bei Hong

42

27

Hong Kong’s logistics and maritime sectors must move up the value chain — Hong Kong chief executive C.Y. Leung SINOSHIP winter 2013

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UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@asiashippingmedia.com CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Engen Tham HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI David Green CONTRIBUTORS Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh, Andrew Craig-Bennett PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao All editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com CHINA SALES DIRECTOR Tom Wu sales@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details.

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Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2013 www.asiashippingmedia.com Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com.

Twitter: @sinoship Linked In: SinoShip China Shipping Network

Out with the old, in with the old AS WE NEAR the end of the year the Chinese shipping industry is arguably more changed in the last 12 months than at any similar timeframe for a generation.

Many of the best-known names in the sector have gone.

Wei Jiafu, after more than 40 years at Cosco, stepped down in the summer, his mega expansionist days having brought the huge conglomerate an embarrassing series of debt-strewn results. His great rival for a decade or so, Li Kelin, also stepped down. The former China Shipping supremo had been heading up Hainan PO Shipping, which has gone bankrupt. Over at China Shipping, meanwhile, Li Shaode, the conservative bureaucrat parachuted in after Li left to steady the ship, has also moved for retirement.

Not left unscathed by this sheering of power has been Sinotrans&CSC, where top management has been shuffled too.

What we question are the choice of replacements at these state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Not only are each of the replacements partly responsible for the current malaise hitting Chinese shipping, but their age also counts against them. SOE executives are meant to retire at the age of 60; the new heads of most of these shipping lines will only be in power for a couple of years as a result. What’s needed, we argue, are far greater wholesale changes to staterun lines — mindsets must change, reporting lines must be clarified, and further wheat needs to be sorted from the chaff.

Another reason for the argument that this year is a transformative one for shipping in China is in the targeting of the sector in the nation’s ongoing anti-graft war.

As we go to print Xi Jinping, the nation’s president, has just celebrated his first year in office.

Since he took over the ruling Communist Party a year ago, Xi has vowed to root out endemic corruption by catching “tigers”, or senior officials, and not just lowly “flies”.

Statistics actually show that the number of corruption probes this year is similar to

last year, but perhaps Xi uses the media better to highlight big investigations.

Having gone after PetroChina executives earlier this year, Xi’s graftbusters have lately fired a few torpedoes shipping’s way.

Xu Minjie, vice president of Cosco Group, joined the former head of Cosco Dalian and a senior Cosco Qingdao employee behind bars, accused of corruption this autumn.

The Cosco corruption tales even forced the group to come out and publicly deny that Wei Jiafu himself had had a travel ban put in place. Elsewhere, Jia Hongxiang, former chairman of Grand China Logistics, and Mao Shijia, chairman of Dalian Ruihai Petrochemical Shipping, have been taken away by authorities for investigation.

Both men previously worked with China Shipping.

With a few weeks left of 2013 there’s still time for more scything of senior shipping people. Some are sitting on edge.

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com SINOSHIP winter 2013

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ECONOMY ■ ■ ■

Rethinking growth Paul French identifies what wholesale changes the leadership in Beijing needs to make to keep the Chinese engine ticking over THIS NOVEMBER the Chinese leadership got together to try and sort out their rather lacklustre looking economic model. The so-called Third Plenum is the third session of the full Central Committee of the 18th Communist Party congress (which was initiated last November and officially ushered in the administration of Xi Jinping). It seems clear to most analysts, the Chinese leadership and a growing number of Chinese businesspeople that the rushto-growth model of all out development that’s pushed China forward for the last three decades needs a serious overhaul rather than the ongoing tinkering measures it’s had to date.

So what can we expect? It’s hoped that more economic liberalisation might occur and that some relaxation of interest rates and the currency might be on the cards. Currency reform is always on the agenda but traditionally the artificially low exchange rate has been maintained to benefit China’s exporters. However, now this low rate means high prices for domestic consumers for all their iPhones and luxury brands. With the government set on boosting domestic consumption, currency revaluations are now about boosting local retail sales as much as about selling Chinese wares overseas.

Perhaps though it is hukou reform, China’s internal

China’s Fixed Asset Investment Growth Rates (%) 2009–2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

*=Forecast Source: National Bureau of Statistics

passport system that restricts the free movement of labour within the country, that’s most eagerly anticipated. Abolishing the hukou and allowing labour to move more freely and settle (thus freeing up savings to buy property, etc) could inject a boost into the manufacturing sector.

The Chinese leadership may worry about slowing growth rates but, by international standards, the economy is still motoring on quite nicely, thank you. Both industrial output and retail sales rose in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Beijing, indicating that China is both making and selling plenty.

Inflation remained stable and the fourth quarter of the year looks like remaining strong.

Production was up 10% and retail sales rose 13% in October

year-on-year, significantly above most analyst estimates. The only slightly dark spot was food prices (which depress consumers and leave them with less money for non-food spending) the consumer price index (CPI) accelerated slightly to 3.2% in October year-on-year.

Crucially for containerlines, China’s exports also look fairly positive on the back of some good renewed growth num-

the 0.3% fall in September. Of course, everyone hopes this will continue though October is invariably a better-than-average month due to holiday season shipments to the West and also some key new large orders such as the new iPhones.

But to come back to the discussions at the Third Plenum in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. One major motor that has to change are the high levels of government spending.

According to NBS, fixed asset investment, the measure of government spending on infrastructure, rose 20.1% during the first 10 months of this year from the same period in 2012.

This is a slowdown in terms of the last few years, and certainly since the heady days of the Beijing Olympics and the stimulus package that followed, but not enough. Fixed asset investment costs the government a lot of money and, while it may boost employment, doesn’t necessarily boost productivity significantly. It keeps the economy humming along but adds to inflation fears. Right now rising

Some relaxation of interest rates and the currency might be on the cards bers in Europe and America.

While this is not a return to the pre-2008 glory days of Chinese exporting, a 5.6% year-on-year growth of exports, according to the General Administration of Customs, was significant, given

inflation (slashing consumer spending) is feared the most.

China is on target to keep the CPI and inflation within manageable limits this year, but only if it continues to cool fixed asset investment rates.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

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LINES ■ ■ ■ number of corruption scandals have hit it. Vice president Xu Minjie was taken away by authorities in early November for corruption investigations.

In July, the former general manager of Cosco Dalian, Meng Qinglin, was arrested for corruption and earlier former vice general manager of Cosco Qingdao, Song Jun was also arrested for corruption in 2011.

Li Shaode (pictured) retired as chairman of China Shipping.

Group president Xu Lirong replaces Li as the new chairman of the group with Zhang Guofa replacing Xu as the new president of the line. Xu, 56, had served previously as president of China Shipping, managing director of Cosco Container Lines and president of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange.

In a big breakthrough in the ongoing impasse between Brazilian miner and China, Shandong Shipping signed a $500m transport contract with Vale at the end of October.

Four of Vale’s 400,000 dwt VLOCs will be taken on by Shandong Shipping. The move follows August’s decision by the Ministry of Transport to review its ban on ships larger than 300,000 dwt calling at Chinese ports. “We will question Shandong Shipping about the signing with Vale, it was completely inappropriate,” Zhang Shouguo, vice chairman

A corruption scandal engulfing China’s largest maritime conglomerate grabbed plenty of headlines. Wei Jiafu, the former chairman of Cosco, was reported to have been restricted from leaving China as investigations into the group continue, something the group denied.

Wei was removed from his post as China’s most powerful man in shipping this July. Cosco is now under the spotlight as a

Trucking consolidation Exclusive repair data SPRING 2013

Hainan PO Shipping was officially declared bankrupt

by Hainan Yangpu Economic Development Zone People’s Court in the middle of November. The company suspended all of its shipping services at the end of September and was trying to resume operations through financial support from the local government or via a restructure. PO Shipping’s total liabilities had reached RMB709m.

A near constant on the SinoShip News website these past two months has been troubled CSC Phoenix. The subsidiary of Sinotrans&CSC has been forced by courts to sell off a double digit number of ships in recent months as debts mount up and the parent

company distances itself from saving this domestic operator.

Further auctions are in the offing and analysts suggest the line is on course to lose around RMB700m in 2013, if it can see out the year that is.

Taiwanese bulk shipowner Wisdom Marine Lines listed on the London Stock Exchange on November 14, becoming the largest Asian IPO by market capitalisation in London this year. The company also issued its first overseas non-guaranteed convertible bonds at the Singapore Stock Exchange to raise $60m funds this autumn.

Pacific Basin, Hong Kong’s largest shipowner by vessel numbers, put its towage division in the shop window this October via a stock market release as it continued to strip back non-dry bulk activities.

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Wah Kwong

Sabrina Chao takes the chair

Your chance to reach the right audience Project shippers focus on Africa Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism head speaks Hosco’s Gao Yangming: China’s scrapping champion E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

EYE FOR DETAIL No one is better placed to pass fair comment on Chinese yards than a newbuild supervisor

The newbuild supervisor’s point of view SinoShip polls leading shipmanagers to get the full reality of the weaknesses in skills and organisation among China’s shipbuilders BUILDING A SHIP in China?

It’s cheap, right? Think again.

Issues on quality continue to spook owners to the point whereby newbuild supervision teams tend to be nearly double the size of those in Korea for commercial vessels, triple those in Japan and for offshore they are at least three or four times the size of a panel deployed elsewhere in East Asia. SinoShip has canvassed many leading shipmanagers and their newbuild supervisors to highlight issues with Chinese shipbuilding.

“Whilst it is true that a ship purchased for too high a price will never thrive, a ship built with poor detailing and construction standards will have endless trouble and quickly gain an industry reputation for poor reliability and performance,” comments Ray McNamara,

managing director of Wallem Ship Management.

The time and resources committed to plan approval and newbuild supervision is some of the most productive investment a shipowner may make, McNamara reckons.

Supervision in Chinese shipyards requires a more proactive approach, suggests a source at Anglo-Eastern, and patrolling is needed at various stages of construction to identify problems early enough for a proper corrective action.

45%

Average extra time it takes Chinese yards to build a ship compared to Korea and Japan

Quality not in control Quality assurance and control and its place within a Chinese yard was one of the key worries for many of the managers contacted by SinoShip.

“The quality control (QC) department in Chinese shipyards are the least influential and they have little or no control over the production department,” comments one manager.

“The least trained and poorly qualified personnel work in the QC department, hence much of the problems.”

Notes Kishore Rajvanshy, head of Fleet Management, QC functions tend to report to the production departments in China hence production schedules take priority over quality or good work practices. QC inspectors tend to be “mute spectators” in China whereas in Korea and Japan they have power and

report to top management.

“An owner’s supervisor needs to be firm and fight singlehandedly to get good work practices or to rectify poor workmanship,” advises Rajvanshy.

In most Chinese yards, the QC inspector is like a tour guide, Rajvanshy says. He just accompanies the owner’s supervisor or class inspector up to the inspection site and then moves away. “He is either busy smoking or chatting on his mobile phone,” comments Rajvanshy.

Chinese yard drawings procedures and standards are in many cases confusing and cumbersome. The English language is at times atrocious and the work procedures if read will make no sense. The procedures tend to be written in a very roundabout manner.

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YARDS ■ ■ ■ is not viewed as a waste of resources. It is just passed onto the subcontractor or worker.

In Korean or Japanese yards, on the other hand, the reason for the rework is analysed.

The responsible department is pulled up and often penalised for the waste of resources.

Chinese shipyards suffer from demographics too, argues Rajasih Bajpaee, the boss of Bernhard Schulte.

“The fundamental challenge lies with the structure of the local workforce,” he says, “with workers coming from different provinces having different perspectives and backgrounds.”

Furthermore, many of them do not belong to the yards, but are temporary workers referred by the subcontractors.

“Continuous skill set development in people is therefore difficult,” says Bajpaee.

Sparks of contention On the welding front, a common gripe for owners, the Chinese use a lot of manual welding and it purely depends on the welder’s expertise to get a good result. In Korean and Japanese yards there is very high level of automation, which helps the shipyards deliver a consistently high quality of work.

Welders are qualified by classification but Anglo-Eastern Technical Services reports some Chinese yards use welders without certificates.

“Chinese shipyards do not wish to spend money certifying the welders as they become more expensive and often leave the shipyard after the Chinese New Year,” says a source at Anglo-Eastern.

On the plus side, any request for a fairing weld run or a grinding for aesthetics improvement is taken without grudge at Chinese yards.

There is also the issue of speed for project delivery.

For most commercial vessels Chinese builders tend to take between 40 and 50% longer to complete a ship from steel

The least trained and poorly qualified personnel work in the quality control department, hence much of the problems cutting to delivery compared to their Korean and Japanese counterparts.

SinoShip’s poll of managers showed almost universally that state run yards deliver better ships in China than their private peers.

This is down to experience as well as after service guarantees.

What needs to change In terms of advice to Chinese shipyards our polled experts suggest shipbuilders should concentrate more on modulebased construction techniques and extreme care has to be taken in maintaining this modular system, so that the equipment is well maintained upon the block erection until the delivery of the vessel.

Each shipyard should also concentrate on upgrading the quality control on structural outfitting.

Our select newbuild supervisors also urged for greater

automation of the entire shipbuilding process in China.

In most Chinese yards, the quality systems are just in paper and on banners and hoardings on the shop floor, and this mentality must change.

The majority of Chinese yards still think quality is just applicable only to the product.

They don’t understand that quality starts from specification preparation, in drawings and details, work execution and after sales service.

Those involved in quality

control must be given teeth to act. They should also have stricter quality control at the facilities of their subcontractors. Similarly, shipyards need to analyse the cost of poor quality and reworks every year and make quantified annual reduction targets.

The builders also should improve their focus on final finish and aesthetics.

“A new ship in China does not really look new,” comments Rajvanshy.

Shipyards must implement employment policies and practices to retain employees for longer periods.

Finally, it was felt that Chinese yards need to get better at after sales service, especially in their worldwide coverage.

FOUR STEPS TO IMPROVE CHINESE SHIPBUILDING • Get quality control to report to top management not the production department • Greater automation • Implement employment practices to retain employees for longer periods • Take more care with after sales service

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OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■

WEE DRAM Naming ceremony in Aberdeen for another Chinese built PSV

Europe stares up at PSV realities Katherine Si identifies prospects for platform supply vessels and China’s dominance in building them CHINA HAS A controlling market share in the construction of platform supply vessels (PSVs), a sector that has lost a little of its shine of late, but still sees some touting it as one with strong prospects.

The number of PSVs ordered this year has declined over 2012. Nevertheless, China has accounted for close to 50% of all orders placed.

The trend in ordering has switched away from large-sized PSVs to more moderate offerings, typically with deck areas in the 500 to 750 sq m range.

Chinese PSV builders are attracting more and more international owners not only thanks to available slots, but, more importantly, cheap prices.

Mike Meade, founder of M3 Marine, Asia’s largest independent offshore brokerage, reckons

the “strident” ordering of PSVs of late could lead to supply outstripping demand by 2015.

“Speculators like PSVs as they are easier to build and the resale margins are high,” he comments.

M3 Marine has seen a trend where owners and shipyards are building North Sea style PSVs in China of European design. Designs from the likes of Ulstein, Rolls-Royce, IMT and Vard are being built in China.

Pricing is compelling, Meade admits, with a typical Chinese PSV being 60% of the cost of a European vessel.

What’s more age-old

concerns about quality are no longer such a worry if contracted and supervised properly, he asserts.

40%

Price differential between Chinese and European PSVs Taking a contrarian view to Meade on the supply and demand side is David Palmer from Pareto Securities Asia, who notes there are some 379 PSVs on order, equivalent to 29% of the extant fleet.

However, significant slippage in

Speculators like PSVs as they are easier to build and the resale margins are high

deliveries this year, especially compared to the prompt rig orderbook, means there is scope for more PSV orders.

Moreover, 22% of PSVs are more than 25-years-old and the difference in utilisation between old and new PSVs is now around 35%.

Mid-sized 3,000 to 4,000 dwt PSVs are deemed to be a “sweet spot” according to Palmer with orders in this range “surging”.

Utilisation levels globally for PSVs have decreased from 83% a year ago to 80% today, Palmer says, as the market absorbs new tonnage.

“We believe the market is in balance and 80% is achievable moving forward,” he reckons.

Another important factor for the PSV market is the subsea sector. PSV owners have been upgrading the sophistication of their vessels to target the subsea market.

Palmer is adamant that the PSV sector is not as overbuilt as previously thought and increasing deepwater demands in Brazil, Africa, Malaysia and Australasia should keep Chinese yards busy in the coming years.

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FINANCE ■ ■ ■

KEEN TO GROW Companies such as Minsheng Financial Leasing want to boost their shipping portfolio

Leasing the future Jason Jiang attends Marine Money’s event in Beijing WITH EARNINGS MINIMAL, ship values low and overcapacity rampant, how to secure finance was the central topic at this year’s Marine Money China Ship Finance and Strategy Forum in Beijing held in November.

The 30 largest shipyards in China are busy through to 2015, and ship exports are up 193% year-on-year for the first 10 months of the year, noted Zhang Minghua, vice president of Evergreen Holding Group, the parent of Sinopacific Shipbuilding. He cautioned, however, that current ship prices were below breakeven making it “difficult to earn trust from the banks”.

Zhang said it was vital yards became more efficient, upping productivity, and relying less on subcontractors if financing was to be secured.

While certain offshore products had brought some “vitality” to Chinese yards, Luo Weimin, vice president of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, agreed with Zhang, saying: “We still need to improve our technical and quality level.”

While Chinese ship prices are attractive to foreign owners

the diminished liquidity of European banks has made shipowners seek alternative financing methods.

“I have seen increasing interest over the past 12 months in investing in Chinese shipping projects, despite the margins in the market decreasing,” said Jack Sun, managing director of Tiger Group Investments.

Quite so, concurred Zhao Shen, manager of the shipping finance department at the Bank of Communications (BoComm). “Although the shipping market is still low, more owners are ready to invest in the construction of ships and some sectors are starting to signal recovery or expansion.”

the construction of ships are still limited. Export ship loans in China are mostly offered by policy banks, namely China Exim Bank and China Development Bank. Chinese banks’ ship finance business has been significantly developed over the past decade, but not fast enough to keep pace with the rising expectation of shipowners around the world.

“A shortage of talent and experience, limited US dollar funding, tight monetary policies and bureaucratic loan appraisals and a heavy reliance on established relationships as well as an expectation of RMB appreciation are all challenges for Chinese banks to offer financing to foreign

The leasing industry will see a great leap in the coming months Chinese banks’ large capitalisation and relatively healthy balance sheets are raising expectations in the shipping community. Currently, Chinese commercial banks still hold a conservative attitude when extending loans to foreign owners. Direct loans to fund

shipowners,” BoComm’s Zhao highlighted.

With the further tightening of credit facilities at Chinese commercial banks, leasing arms will be used as a conduit in financial arrangements, Zhao reckoned. “I think the leasing industry will see

a great leap in the coming months,” he said.

“Realistically it is still difficult for foreign owners to get money from Chinese commercial banks to fund their construction of newbuildings and purchase of second hand ships. Foreign owners may look more at leasing and bond issuance,” Zhao said, stressing the need for foreigners to find the “right person” to structure the deal.

The newly formed Shanghai free trade zone (FTZ) has introduced a couple of policies encouraging the development of the shipping industry and ship finance. Bank of Communications Financial Leasing has set up a subsidiary, which is dedicated to shipping and aviation in the FTZ. According to Qiao Kai, vice president of Minsheng Financial Leasing, the company has also set up dedicated ship and aviation divisions.

“We are trying to diversify our business through improving the ship business which only contributes a small part of our business revenue, we have a long way to go,” Qiao said.

“Currently most of our international clients are overseas registered Chinese companies, we are making efforts to expand the international market,” said Su Ning, deputy general manager of China Merchants Bank’s shipping finance division.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

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COMMODITIES ■ ■ ■

Unmasked: China’s growing dependence on foreign oil Despite considerable untapped shale reserves the PRC is now the world’s largest oil importer. Dalian correspondent Mark Downing reports CHINA AND THE US are moving in opposite directions when it comes to demand for oil. While the US progresses towards energy self-sufficiency, China is increasingly reliant on foreign oil. Once a net exporter, within two decades it is verging on surpassing the US long-term to become the world’s largest importer — possibly having earned that title this September, according to a contested report from the US Energy Information Administration.

Oil is China’s second largest energy source after coal, accounting for a fifth of the country’s energy consumption.

China’s oil demand is closely tied to its massive manufacturing sector and auto market — now the world’s largest.

This summer, Wood Mackenzie forecast that China might be importing up to 600m tons of crude oil at a staggering cost of $500bn by 2020. To mitigate this growing reliance on foreign oil, Beijing is diversifying its energy supply while balancing the environmental, political and economic consequences of its decisions.

Despite having the largest reserves in the Asia Pacific region, China can only supply two-thirds of its domestic consumption.

Its economic boom has outstripped its production capacity while its largest oil fields are maturing beyond peak production. Development of untapped reserves in the western interior provinces and offshore locations — where many of the most promising fields are hampered by territorial disputes — cannot dampen its increasing reliance on imports. Its economy is becoming

BREAKING GROUND China has the world’s largest reserves of shale gas increasingly vulnerable to oil market fluctuations and international oil conflicts.

China is now the top importer of Middle Eastern oil, predominantly from Saudi Arabia and now less so Iran owing to sanctions and political uncertainty. Around 80% of this imported oil, including that from Angola, is shipped by tankers through the piracy prone Straits of Malacca where the surrounding countries host US military bases that could easily pinch-off China’s foreign oil lifeline.

While Beijing may play a larger political role in securing the free flow of oil from the Middle East, its national oil companies, flush with cheap capital from China’s massive foreign exchange reserves, are diversifying supplies across the globe via overseas investments and long-term contracts to reduce the risk of supply disruptions. Pipelines from

neighbouring Kazakhstan, Russia and Myanmar will also somewhat decrease dependency on seaborne imported oil.

Beijing has been enacting policies to reduce its foreign oil dependency. Stricter automobile fuel efficiency standards have been penned, alongside a fuel tax and reforms of the domestic product pricing mechanism to align more closely its retail oil prices with international markets. Additionally, China is turning to natural gas. Although only comprising about 4% of the country’s total energy consumption, Beijing intends to scale that to 10% by the end of the decade.

China is blessed with more shale gas reserves than any other nation — 20% of the world total — and enough shale oil to place it third worldwide. Beijing hopes to follow the US’s fracking bonanza and reap the same benefits from securing its own bountiful, cheap and clean fuel source.

The shale gas producers

crowding in have been incentivised with tax benefits, grants and cheap credit. These firms are able to buy into acquiring the latest technology and experience by forming joint venture partnerships or via outright foreign acquisitions. However, they face having to drill deeper than in the US at an average cost ten times higher in one of world’s least water-secure countries.

Chinese shale development may eventually happen but it will likely take time to make a dent in China’s forecasted oil imports.

The world’s largest energy consumer is more intertwined than ever into the global production and trade of oil. Despite pursuing alternative energy sources alongside reforming policies, China’s thirst for oil is expected to grow lockstep with its economy. Ultimately, Beijing expects that a diverse energy security portfolio will balance economic development, political stability and a healthy environment.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

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■ ■ ■ LOGISTICS

ONE IN A BILLION Singles Day takes place every November 11. The 1 numerals are said to resemble bare branches, a Chinese term for bachelors

Soaring sales on Singles Day blow express fuse November 11 has become the single biggest day of online buying in the Chinese calendar. Express operators get close to melt down on the day, reports Jason Jiang BOTH E-COMMERCE AND the express industries in China experienced a record day on November 11 thanks to the annual one-day online shopping festival aimed at singles (11/11 – get it?) which was started by China’s e-commerce giant Alibaba in 2009. Vendors offer massive discounts to attract buyers to place a huge number of orders on this day of singledom.

Online shopping volumes exploded, according to data from China’s State Post Bureau with e-commerce companies achieving a transaction volume of more than RMB40bn within just 24 hours. Taobao, China’s largest online marketplace, secured orders worth more than RMB35bn.

Following the amazing trading volumes, express companies were faced with massive pressure from a flood of parcels.

Online stores on e-commerce platforms created about 323m express parcels on the 18

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day, which increased 85% from last year, giving express service providers the busiest week of the year.

“It was a disastrous day,” says a senior official from YTO Express, adding that despite having one of the largest warehousing facilities in Shanghai, it still couldn’t handle all the parcels in time. Smaller express companies simply wilted under the commercial tide.

$5.7bn

Amount spent online in China on November 11

“Although the surging online sales volume has brought a massive increase in express parcels, some express companies might have lost money,” reckons Wang Xubo, a regional manager of STO Express in

Dalian. He explains that express companies had to spend large amounts on extra capacity, and the profit margin of the express business in the People’s Republic has been decreasing as there is too much competition and logistics systems are too congested.

In order to prepare for the surging volumes, express companies had to temporarily hire employees, trucks and warehouses before the event.

According to data from the China Express Association, there were about 800,000 employees from express companies working on the day. The data also shows over 150 new dispatch offices of express companies, 4,000 extra trucks and an additional 100 aircraft were used to get through the shopping carnival.

“The event helps the express companies to realise their deficiencies in both operations and infrastructure, and eventually facilitate the standardisation

and consolidation of the industry,” says an official from SF Express, a leading express company in China.

“The pressure on delivery could be eased through cooperation between e-commerce enterprises and the express industry,” Lu Xiaochun, a transport professor at Beijing Jiaotong University, suggests.

To guarantee more reliable and timely shipping services, some e-commerce companies have started to build their own logistics network.

Jingdong, a popular B2C website has been expanding its logistics network all over China.

It has already set up logistics coverage in major cities, its total warehousing area reached 1m sq m by the end of 2012. It is now developing its largest modern warehousing project in Shanghai with over 200,000 sq m which is expected to commence operations by the end of this year and it plans to build another seven similar ones all over China.

The rocketing growth of the express industry has also lured investors from other industries. In February this year, for example, Leading Capital, Pengkang Investment and Phoenix Capital Asset Management invested RMB200m in Quanfeng Express, which is planning an IPO in three years. American investors Sequoia Capital and Goldstone Investment bought into ZTO Express in May and Citic Capital, Oriza Holdings, China Merchants Group bought 25% of the shares in SF Express.

“The fast growing e-commerce market has brought a banquet for the express industry, however, the growing speed of e-commerce will eventually slow down, and margins will be further narrowed. It will be the next round of challenges and consolidation of the express industry by then,” warns Li Huide, secretary general of the China Express Association.

CRUISE ■ ■ ■

UNIVERSAL ACCLAIM Star Cruises has long championed the island as a cruise destination

Strait talking Taiwan is seeing cruise numbers leap as mainlanders flock to the island.

Katherine Si reports AT ITS NARROWEST point the Taiwan Strait is just 130 km wide, and yet this body of water for decades was one the two sides never crossed. How times have changed. Nowadays, as relations between Taipei and Beijing continue to thaw, crossing the strait has become one of the hottest cruise tours in Asia, something Taiwan is trying to capitalise on as it tries to position itself as a cruise hub.

Keelung port, in the north of the island, is on course to receive some 600,000 passengers this year. In the first 10 months alone the port had hit a record total for a calendar year with half a million visitors.

The local port authority puts the extraordinary numbers down to the fact that cruise operators have been seeking to compensate declining business in Europe and North America

with new opportunities in Asia.

Cross-strait direct transportation started in 2008 and has gradually become easier and easier.

Sources at Taiwan International Ports Corporation (TIPC), which oversees all the ports on the island, say that the closer connections between mainland China and Taiwan and the ongoing trend of deploying larger ships in Asia will lead to plenty of new records for the island’s cruise industry.

There are set to be 214 international cruiseship calls to Taiwan this year, a staggering increase of 71% over 2012. TIPC anticipates 2014 should see a minimum of 230 international cruise calls.

Carnival has decided to make Keelung a homeport for its Sapphire Princess liner from May next year. The Sapphire

Princess can carry over 2,600 passengers and will stop by Kagoshima, Nagasaki and Okinawa on a regular Japan cruise.

71%

2013 percentage increase year-on-year in international cruise calls to Taiwan

Star Cruises, Royal Caribbean International and Costa Cruises have already made Keelung one of their bases.

Li Yunwan, deputy director of the port and shipping bureau at the transport ministry in Taipei, says that the government is trying to negotiate

easier, looser polices for the mainland-Taiwan cruise business, which now accounts for the majority of cruise calls on the island.

In a further bid to lure mainland Chinese cruise customers, Taiwan started this year to offer double-entry permits to Chinese tourists to encourage them to take cruises in and out of the island.

The double-entry permit allows tourists to arrive in the country, either by plane or on a cruiseship, and then enter Taiwan again exclusively on a cruiseship that leaves and then returns to Taiwan.

More than 2.3m of the 7m visitors to Taiwan last year were from China, according to Tourism Bureau statistics. The aim is to have 10m visitors by 2016.

Beyond the mainland ties however it is Taiwan’s location and its abundant natural beauty that should see cruise numbers leap, argues Xu Jingqi, Taiwan general manager for Princess Cruises. Taiwan’s location, he says, in the centre of northeast Asia should ensure it gets plenty of custom from Japan and Korea besides its close neighbour China.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

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When a Norwegian research vessel needed a Chinese crew in just nine days Wallem delivered.

Delivering Maritime Solutions www.wallem.com

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Bright future Katherine Si interviews Dr Sit Kwong Lam, chairman of Brightoil, for this issue’s cover story

B

rightoil has come a long way in a short amount of time, from niche bunker activities to global oil player. The company is now one of China’s premier marine bunkering service providers, also selling overseas, as well as a developer of oil and gas fields and last but not least a significant shipowner with a fleet of VLCCs to go alongside its increasing number of bunker barges.

“China will continue its market-oriented reform and maintain a long-term healthy development of its economy, while its urbanisation development approach will provide significant potential for long-term growth of its domestic consumers and industrial demand, creating substantial possibilities for higher energy demand,” maintains Brightoil’s chairman Dr Sit Kwong Lam. Currently, the company is focusing more of its efforts on growing its marine fuel oil storage and terminal business in China, constructing a 3.16m cu m oil storage and terminal facility on Waidiao island in the Zhoushan archipelago and another 7.19m cu m oil storage facility and terminal on Changxing island off Dalian. Combined with its existing Shenzhen facility Brightoil now owns Chinese oil storage depots with a total volume of 15m tons. It also has leased areas in Ningbo, Qingdao and Shanghai.

Brightoil has become one of the bestknown names in Asian bunkering. It has been among the top three suppliers measured by volume in China and Singapore for the last few years.

The upstream sector will be the major driver for Brightoil’s future growth Not content with merely being a bunker player, Sit has taken Brightoil into other rungs of the oil supply chain.

The international trading and bunkering division of the company has added a new crude origination resource in the US to allow the crude trading bench to source

competitively valued suppliers in Latin America for arbitrage sale into North Asia, however, expansion plans in Europe have been temporary held off until market conditions improve.

To aid this global oil push Brightoil has built up its own fleet of tankers. Last year it took on the first of what now stands at five Hyundai-built VLCCs. The VLCCs go alongside Brightoil’s other vessels, a very rapidly growing set of bunker barges, with 15 added this year alone.

Then there is Sit’s biggest change in focus – getting involved in oil and gas exploration and development.

The Dina 1 gas field in Xinjiang has been generating remarkable cash inflow to the group, while the Tuzi gas field development plan has been approved by the National Development and Reform Commission and is expected to be officially commissioned shortly.

“We will continue to further develop oil and gas fields to deploy our strategy with a focus on upstream business,” says Sit, adding: “The upstream sector will be the major driver for Brightoil’s future growth and value adding. Looking ahead, demand for oil and gas resources in China will remain strong and an upward adjustment of the natural gas price is expected to continue in the future.”

Even though the financial performance was severely impacted in the first half of the 2013 financial year, “we adjusted our business strategies and risk control measures according to different markets and business environments and managed to achieve significant improvement in operating results,” says Sit. “We have every confidence that the scalable and global development of our core businesses, the upstream business in particular, will lay a solid foundation for Brightoil to become a renowned international energy conglomerate,” Sit concludes.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

BRIGHTOIL

HONG KONG-BASED BRIGHTOIL is principally engaged in bunker trading, oil storage and terminal facilities, marine transportation as well as a growing focus on upstream. Fleet includes five new VLCCs.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

21

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2013-11-22

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Zhoushan champion Jason Jiang meets the chairman of Herun Group, a diverse conglomerate with big fleet plans

O

nce home to a sleepy fishing community the archipelago of Zhoushan off Ningbo is nowadays a fast emerging shipping and trading hub.

Following a series of favourable government policies, the development of Zhoushan Archipelago New Area has been gaining momentum. Traders and shipping companies in the bulk and LNG sectors have been rushing to choose the treasure island as their hub.

Zhoushan-headquartered Herun Group, a large scale multi-sector private enterprise with businesses in grain and oil processing, logistics, energy, real estate as well as ship repair, is developing a grain and oils distribution hub in the new development area.

The group signed shipbuilding contracts with Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding in October for the construction of four 180,000 The detailed plan includes develdwt capesizes scheduled for delivery in oping a coastal logistics chain from 2016.

“The construction of large capacity bulk- Yingkou and Tianjin in the north to Zhuhai and the Beibu Gulf in the south, ers will optimise the capacity structure of the group and lower shipping costs,” says Yu using Zhoushan as a hub, and developing a Yangtze river logistics chain from Songbo, chairman of Herun Group, adding Zhenjiang in the east to Wuhan in the that none of the 21 vessels in its current centre of the country and further west to tanker-dominated fleet is over 50,000 dwt.

Chongqing and Chengdu.

According to Yu, Herun Group is going Currently the projects in Zhenjiang to develop a grain shipping fleet with a total and Wuhan have been completed and are capacity of 4m dwt and a new international expected to start operations by the end of grain shipping industrial chain in the next this year. The group has also signed investten years in accordance with the development deals in Tianjin, Yingkou, Zhuhai, ment plans of the Zhoushan Archipelago Beibu Gulf and Chengdu, with plans to start New Area. operations in these locations in three years.

“We will take advantage of the policy Long-term plans also include developsupport from the government and connect ing dryports in cities including Guiyang, the domestic market with the international Kunming, Nanchang and Hefei, Yu reveals. market. We will invest around RMB30bn in Yu is well aware of the current trend the next three to five years to build a network of cargo owners estabwith Zhoushan as the lishing their own fleet, headquarters and developsomething he strongly ing more than 10 bases advises against. He cites along the Yangtze river COFCO, China’s largest and establish an industrial grain trader as a classic chain with the combinaProjected outlay by case in point. COFCO tion of grain processing, Herun Group in the had to sell all its shipping shipping, warehousing and coming five years assets nine years ago as trading,” Yu says.

$4.92bn

the vessels were losing too much money.

Yu has been promoting the integration between cargo owners and private shipping companies in China through mergers, restructuring and joint ventures.

Herun Group’s subsidiaries include Zhoushan Zhonghai Cereals And Oils Industry Co, a major grain and oils trading company in the region and Zhoushan Putuo Oils Transportation & Trade Co, which runs China’s largest professional vegetable oil shipping fleet and occupies around 80% of the market share in the country.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

HERUN GROUP HEADQUARTERED IN Zhoushan Herun is a private enterprise with businesses in grain and oil processing, logistics, energy, real estate as well as ship repair. Plans to build a 4m dwt strong bulk fleet to go alongside its strong vegetable oil shipping set up.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

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■ ■ ■ PROFILE

At a canter Engen Tham sits down for lunch with Henry Chiang, president of Greathorse Shipping, part of the Tiger Group

P

rivate shipowner Greathorse, in testament to its namesake, is hitting its stride. Even as other owners flounder, Greathorse remains profitable and has ordered 12 fuelefficient 64,000 dwt ultramaxes — split evenly between Chengxi and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding.

Presiding over the company, the amicable Henry Chiang is well placed to steer a steady course. Chiang was the area manager for the Greater China region at Lloyd’s Register for three years before joining Greathorse in 2005 and comes from a long line of seafarers. His father and grandfather both worked in shipping.

The company is well connected to shipping in China 24

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The company, founded in 1997 by Xue Chao Cun, is affiliated with Hong Kong private investment firm Tiger Group Investments. It puts its success in part down to its relationship with the Chinese shipping industry. “The company is well connected to shipping in China. Our clients include Huaneng Group, China Shipping and Sinochem,” says Chiang.

Focus on long-term charters to highquality charterers is key, he says. “We only charter to first-class charterers.”

Another advantage the company has is its affiliation with Tiger Group, which provides financial and industry support, says Chiang.

The firm is also cosy with banks, which provides a strong channel of ship finance.

“We have strong links to foreign and Chinese banks,” says Chiang. The Chinese banks it taps up include CEXIM, China Development Bank and ICBC Leasing. The foreign banks include DnB, Credit Suisse,

Deutsche Bank and ABN. Greathorse takes a conservative and long term approach to assess investments in ships, offering their clients modern fuel efficient vessels at competitive charter rates, which will enable them to compete in a very difficult market.

Although Greathorse is outpacing others in the market, the company is not unaware of the challenges facing all owners globally. “China is a very important market. The biggest threat is oversupply of tonnage.

There is still a lot of shipbuilding capacity, especially in China. It is easy to order at a reasonable price, but in years to come this will put increased pressure on the market,” remarks Chiang.

The recent development of fuel saving technology will also increase the pace of competition. “Many owners believe one cannot compete in the near future if one does not buy into the new fuel efficient vessels,” Chiang says. “This will put pressure on ships going to scrap at a younger age.

Previously, you could expect a ship with a life cycle of 25 years. Now owners are scrapping [ships] as young as 15 years old.”

The firm is comfortable with evolving.

Greathorse started life as a business consultancy that brokered shipping deals for foreign owners, but in 2005 morphed into an owner. However, despite its appetite for change, the company is comfortable with the conventional types of vessels that it operates and is not planning to move into hi-tech ships.

“We are not looking at LNG or offshore vessels. Although we are always on the lookout for investment opportunities” says Chiang. “We want to focus on the traditional ships that we know we do well.”

NEED NEED TO TO KNOW KNOW

GREATHORSE SHIPPING FOUNDED IN 1997, Greathorse Shipping is a private company focusing on small containerships, chemical and oil tankers and bulk carriers. One of the few owners to still be making a profit, the company currently has a fleet size of 22 ships and 12 ships on order. Leases are mainly long-term charters with maturities of between 12 and 15 years.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

‘It all boils down to the math’ Jack Hsu, managing director of Oak Maritime, is one smart guy, as Sam Chambers finds out in Hong Kong

J

ack Hsu, managing director of Oak Maritime (Hong Kong), is typical of many of the third generation of Asia’s family run shipping lines, a man schooled in economics with a very firm grasp on the dollars and cents that make the difference between boom and bust in the volatile world of shipping.

The Oak Maritime Group is one of Asia’s best-known names in shipping with 21 ships in its fleet – a mix of bulkers and tankers – and four on order. The group is represented through its affiliated offices.

The principal office, Sincere Navigation Corporation, is a publicly-owned company based in Taiwan. General management is coordinated through Oak Maritime’s office in Hong Kong where Hsu is based.

Despite a recent rise on the Baltic Dry Index Hsu is cautious on prospects. Looking at the forward FFA market, Hsu questions the sustainability of any dry bulk run.

“Owners are coming into the market

and putting their orders in at this pricing,” he notes. “Yes, there is an argument that pricing has bottomed and that is obviously the cause for owners to come in but from an economic cash flow sustainability perspective I don’t think it has hit the right numbers yet.”

On the likelihood of obsolescence hitting the market, Hsu is forthright, saying it is less about technology, and more about economics.

“It is all about pulling out a pencil and paper with a ruler and just calculating what makes sense economically,” he says.

“With the older ships,” he continues, “the key is that there is no debt and so from a no debt and all liquidity perspective the owner is basically looking at operating costs and so from a competitive advantage point he can, if the ship has five to 10 years left, for him he would actually pray for a variable market that would wipe out all the weakest economically unviable ships leading to the

It’s all about pulling out a pencil and paper with a ruler and just calculating what makes sense economically

scrapyard, and when that market does rise he can then enjoy the benefits… Ultimately it all boils down to the math.”

While many around him have been busy ordering this year, Hsu says he is holding back from bringing out the chequebook.

“There are no real plans for more orders,” he tells SinoShip, adding that most yards are full for the coming couple of years.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW OAK MARITIME THE OAK MARITIME Group is one of Asia’s best-known names in shipping with 21 ships in its fleet – a mix of bulkers and tankers – and four on order. The group is represented through its affiliated offices. The principal office, Sincere Navigation Corporation, is a publicly-owned company based in Taiwan. General management is coordinated through Oak Maritime’s office in Hong Kong.

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Dry Bulk ■ ■ ■

With every one knot decrease in speed 9% of the fleet starts getting absorbed Knotty issue

Speed freaks The knots at which a bulker travels is vital in swaying the sector’s fortunes, Sam Chambers hears at SinoShip’s latest Dry Bulk Business Breakfast

O

wners, charterers and brokers were in a cautiously confident mood at the SinoShip Dry Bulk Business Breakfast held on October 18 in Hong Kong. With 40 senior executives drawn from a diverse range of sectors the event, sponsored by DVB and RightShip, debated the sustainability of the current dry bulk run, which saw the Baltic Dry Index crack 2,000 points this autumn.

On the market outlook, Mitul Dave, svp on the research side at DVB Bank, said: “I don’t think the influx of a lot of new tonnage is going to have a big medium term impact.

All in all I am a little bit more confident for 2014 than this year.”

Agreeing was Mudit Paliwal, the former Noble high flier who now runs new Dubai trader/owner Panacore. He said Q3 and Q4 had been an iron ore story for capesizes.

“There is about 50m tons of throughput which has come in from Australia so I do believe that the market has legs,” he said.

It went “unreasonably high” when it hit $40,000, he said, but he thought $25,000 to $30,000 was a reasonable rate through to the end of the year.

When it comes to next year, Paliwal noted there is 90m tons of excess production which will come through Rio Tinto and

FMG over the coming 12 months.

“I am optimistically hopeful that this market has seen its bottom, gone through the trough in Q1 this year. It is unlikely we will see $5,000 for capes coming back again for a sustained period of time,” he stated.

Despite a recent rise on the Baltic Dry Index Jack Hsu, managing director of Oak Maritime (Hong Kong), was cautious on prospects. Looking at the forward FFA market, Hsu questioned the sustainability of any dry bulk run.

The shale gas revolution is globally putting on some dampeners in terms of coal demand “Owners are coming into the market and putting their orders in at this pricing,” he noted. “Yes, there is an argument that pricing has bottomed and that is obviously the cause for owners to come in but from an economic cash flow sustainability perspective I don’t think it has hit the right numbers yet.”

Warwick Norman, boss of third party ship vetting specialists, RightShip, brought up one of the key issues, speed. The average capesize fleet at the moment is running around at 11.4 knots, he said. “At $30,000 a day when do we start to see pressure start to build to increase that speed up which would start to change the dynamics again?” he asked.

Hsu concurred saying that speed has played a big role in stymieing capesize supply.

“It took a bit of time between the collapse of the capesize market in 2009 to three or four years later where the vessels had come off charter and owners were looking for new employment and had to have a vision of super slow steaming,” he recounted. “There was a delay in the supply solution by the affect of slow speed and this is something no one really calculated.

People had thought about it but it had not come to our conscience until now and people realised when the market did start to kick off. Actually the market was in a very equilibrium situation, it was very equal at its depth in the middle of the year and thus any increase in demand for cargo immediately switched the market on with strength.”

DVB’s Dave agreed saying speed has been a “central issue” in mopping up surplus tonnage.

“With every one knot decrease in speed 9% of the fleet starts getting absorbed that’s the difference, especially for these very long hauls for iron ore,” he said. By his estimates, owners tend to start speeding up when rates hit $35,000 a day.

None of the five leading Hong Kongbased shipmanagers present in the room said they had been asked by clients to speed up ships.

“There is a cap to rates thanks to speed but there is also a floor to rates thanks to this orderbook consumption and I think owners have realized that they will need to slow down when required,” Dave said.

On the orderbook, Dave said there had been some 650 bulkers ordered this year alone, but orders are more and more focusing on mid-sized tonnage.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

“Panamaxes are certainly very worrying,” he said, when discussing the bulk orderbook.

Nevertheless, the orderbook as a whole now stands at just 16% of the extant fleet, he said, down from a high of nearly 50%.

Panamax position On panamxes, Panacore’s Paliwal admitted far too many ships had been ordered, but he tried to paint a brighter picture for the sector.

“Panamaxes are fundamentally a consumption story for coal, for grain, for bauxite,” he said, adding: “If you believe that the steel cycle still has legs to go then you have to believe that the aluminium cycle will last longer. The iron ore majors have put a lot of money in new projects and there’s a lot of smleters being built nowhere near to where the bauxite is mined. While iron ore is the driver in the market right now, if you look at some of the reports coming out now from people such as Wood Mackenzie, then coal, which seaborne trade today stands at around 1bn tonnes a year will be in the next ten years close to 1.8bn tonnes. Where is this going to come from? Certainly not Indonesia, because they have a current throughput of about 320m tonnes a year and they do not have the ready reserves to fill this. They keep talking about taxes for coal in Indonesia.

So then the new coal will come from two or three areas in the world, Australia, East Africa led by Mozambique and the US. So the ton/miles will carry on increasing. I am hopeful for the panamaxes in the long run.”

Taking aim at these coal assumptions was DVB’s Dave who reckoned that prospects for the US’s shale gas revolution were not as rosy as some had made out, while prospects globally for shale gas were good, which in turn hampered coal prospects.

“We are believers in the shale gas revolution globally and this is putting some dampeners in terms of coal demand because almost all of it is for power consumption,” Dave said.

On smaller tonnage, Michael Birley, who heads up Wallem’s shipbroking division, noted that while capesizes had leapt around 600% in September, handysizes had only risen 20%.

Less efficient ships will be earning less or not earning at all 28

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“Handymaxes and supramaxes have been a consistent story. Typically that is not a very volatile market,” said Paliwal.

“Supramxes are a very diverse fleet, very fragmented,” he said, explaining why they had not leapt like the bigger bulk categories.

Dave said the “flavour” had changed markedly from supramaxes to ultramaxes.

Ecoship debate Ecoships formed a central plank of debate at the two-hour long breakfast.

“It is a not a fad, it is just going to get stronger,” maintained RightShip’s Norman.

Hsu was more circumspect. “One has to be careful when looking at the figures on ecoships,” he said. “I think that the savings on an ecoship are compelling when you look at like for like, meaning if you are looking at an older vessel and a new ecoship, both of those ships are burning at design speed which is usually 80 to 90% of the engine’s maximum power output, then, yes, you have a compelling reason and I think Wall Street and basically Easy Money is looking at that and it is compelling and that is why we see of lot of orders

placed. But in reality in today’s market where bunker prices are between $600 to $650, the reality of the market is nobody is steaming at design speed.”

Rajaish Bajpaee, head of Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement, said: “The story of the ecoship still has to be proven. There’s a lot of time that has to elapse and lot of data is needed to prove that. Secondly, an investment differentiator between ordering an ecoship and a non-ecoship is one that sounds good to the investors but the benefit of that is a large proportion of that, I’d say two thirds, goes to the time charterers and the owner only enjoys a third of the benefit so when you look at it like that the story changes a bit.”

Maarten Vis, svp at DVB’s dry bulk group, said ecoships will be first in the queue for a ship being taken. “Less efficient ships will be earning less or not earning at all,” he said, adding: “We give preference to fuel efficient ships.”

Dry Bulk ■ ■ ■ Another key point that has not been factored in by many people in dry bulk is the damage to older assets brought about by the slow steaming area. Bajpaee pointed out that older vessel engines are not expected to run for an extended period of time on slow steaming, thus the quality of the asset, the ship, is being run down.

“On newer vessels, these ecovessels, the modern electrical engines that they have, they have a much longer operating range and they can operate at a much wider range of speeds so it is not just a fuel factor but a factor on the quality of the ship itself,” Bajpaee said.

The spectre of technical obsolescence was one that should not hit the dry bulk market as bad as, say, the container sector, reckoned DVB’s Dave.

His colleague, Vis, said that DVB was unlikely to finance 15-18 year old ships and technical obsolescence was a big factor in his lending decisions.

Young scrap candidates At this point Vis brought up the vast swathe of ships that were ordered in the boom years of 2006/07/08 at greenfield yards in China.

“We have seen incremental issues with those ships and basically after five years there’s lots of problems with the engine. Is that going to be a factor in the faster fading out of the fleet, will that help absorb part of this new orderbook?” he mused.

Tim Huxley, ceo of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, reckoned this tranche of the fleet could be heading for the welders torch early.

You might see a six- or seven-year old being scrapped “I think this obsolescence of young ships which are not necessarily modern is one of the elephants in the room,” he said, explaining: “You have a lot of ships that were built in the past five years that were built at very high prices but are now technically obsolete.

That will lead to quite a few zombie companies that are surviving when really there is no equity left in them and those ships are as good as unsellable. I can see a time where, if the market takes another bath, you might have a time where you might see a six- or

seven-year old being scrapped.

Captain Vikrant Bhatia, ceo of KC Maritime, then brought up the impending ballast water treatment system regulation that is looming over the horizon. “Is that the straw that is going to break the camel’s back,” he wondered, “because while the cost of buying the system is coming down, most of these ships don’t have the power onboard to power these systems so the whole cost of the installation is actually going up?”

Around 72% of the fleet is less than 10 years old so it is not the oldest vessels that are likely to be affected by ballast water treatment or technological obsolescence issues, maintained DVB’s Dave. For the capes alone it is 76%, only 3% is older than 25.

“It is not the oldest vessels that are going to get impacted, it is the vessels which are relatively new and expensive, the ships ordered pre-2008 at high prices with banks taking very high leverage so the break evens for those are extremely high and if you look at the credit worthiness for the overall dry bulk market it has certainly deteriorated over the last few years so ballast water treatment may break the back, but not for the oldest ships, maybe for the mid-tier category that is relatively new,” he said.

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Propulsion ■ ■ ■

The People’s Republic will be the dominant force in shipbuilding for the coming 20 years at least

Full throttle to China The world’s top engine makers continue to beat a path to the People’s Republic. Wang Fenglei reports

K

ey names in propulsion continue to flock to China. This year’s giant Marintec China show in Shanghai a good case in point, the exhibition halls littered with the world’s top marine engine brands.

While 2013 has been the hardest year for the nation’s shipbuilders it does not stop the inevitability that the People’s Republic will be the dominant force in shipbuilding for the coming 20 years at least. As a European or American engine manufacturer looking to secure a solid future some presence in China is now deemed essential.

Take the US’s Caterpillar as a good example. Caterpillar and Anqing CSSC Diesel Engine’s joint venture project to manufacture Mak brand medium speed marine engines was given the green light this year by Beijing’s National Development and Reform Commission.

“This joint venture is the only JV of

Caterpillar in the field of medium speed engines globally, which continues the company’s strategy to develop partnerships with leading Chinese companies,” says Richard Case, Caterpillar vice president for the Marine & Petroleum Power Division. “The partnership will position Caterpillar to better compete and support its growing base of

customers in China and across Asia.”

The joint venture will manufacture Mak brand M20 and M25 medium speed marine engines.

Elsewhere, Rolls-Royce opened a new marine service facility in Guangzhou earlier this year. The new facility in Guangzhou joins those already in operation in Hong Kong, Dalian and Shanghai.

The 700 sq m facility, located in proximity to Guangzhou’s busy commercial port and ship repair yards, includes a maintenance workshop and offices for a small team of service engineers and customer support personnel.

MAN Diesel & Turbo, meanwhile, has begun building turbochargers entirely in China for sales to shipbuilders in the local market.

“China is of strategic importance for the turbocharger business unit,” says Ralf Großhauser, senior vice president and head of the turbocharger business unit.

“With the localisation of the TCR turbochargers, we are able to support our European production, shorten delivery times and cut transportation costs for the benefit of our Chinese customers.”

MAN is also involved in the first dual fuel liquified natural gas (LNG) carriers to be built in China, equipping five 174,000 cu m capacity vessels to be built at Hudong Zhonghua.

The ships will be fitted with medium speed MAN B&W dual fuel diesel engine (DFDE) systems, specifically the MAN 51/60DF, allowing the ship to burn both gas and fuel oil.

Hudong Heavy sets up service network STATE-RUN ENGINE MAKER Hudong Heavy Machinery (HHM) has set up its own international service network named Global TechService.

HHM Global TechService supplies not only original HHM made spare parts but also technical services and training. Among services offered are engine retrofits, overhauls and repairs as well as reconditioning. As well as

offices across China, HHM Global TechService has bases in Athens, Hamburg and Singapore.

HHM belongs to China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) and has four subsidiary companies - CSSCMES Diesel, Shanghai Hulin Heavy Industry, Guangzhou CSSC Marine Diesel Engine, and China Shipbuilding Power Engineering Institute.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Plenty of work for Wärtsilä The Finnish firm has invested more than most in China and is now reaping the rewards

Y

uchai Marine Power and Wärtsilä are teaming up to create a medium-speed marine engine joint venture, scheduled to be put into operation in June next year.

The company will start out by focusing on Wärtsilä-branded W20, W26 and W32 medium-speed marine diesel engines which will be used as main power units and generating units. The factory will have a designed annual output of 400 units.

Meanwhile, in related news, a Wärtsilä X40 low speed engine recently passed its Type Approval Test (TAT) in Zhuhai, on licensee’s Yuchai test bed, verifying that it met all classification society requirements.

This engine, with its 400 mm cylinder bore, a power output in the range of 4,550 to 9,080 kW and available in five to eight

cylinder configurations, covers the smallbore end of the market. It has an electronically controlled common rail system with time controlled fuel injection. Wärtsilä says that it is ideal for handysize vessels.

The X Engines have a higher stroke to

Chinese shipyards.

“Chinese owners are beginning to invest significantly in LNG carriers powered by dual fuel engines, and these latest orders will add impetus to the market, both in China and globally,” says Aaron

Chinese owners are beginning to invest significantly in LNG carriers powered by dual fuel engines bore ratio, thus achieving lower engine speed and lower brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC).

In the final piece of Wärtsilä news, it was revealed this October that the Finnish firm will supply Wärtsilä 50DF dual fuel engines and propulsion systems for two LNG carriers to be built by two

Bresnahan, vice president of sales of Wärtsilä Ship Power.

The two Chinese yards - Ningbo Xinle Shipbuilding Group and Cosco (Dalian) Shipyard - will build one LNG carrier each for two different Chinese owners. The ships, set for coastal trades with 30,000 cu m of capacity, are due for delivery in 2015.

The pictures show liner material exposed to the reaction of two different lubricants at 60oC and sulphuric acid levels equivalent to 2% HFO.

International shipping trusts arbitration in London or Hong Kong more than in mainland China 32

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Propulsion ■ ■ ■

CNOOC AND HENAN DIESEL JOIN THE LNG TREND CNOOC GAS & POWER GROUP is working with Henan Diesel Heavy Industry on developing a set of new marine engines.

Henan Diesel is starting out by looking at the reform project on domestic fishing boats using LNG fuel or dual fuel of LNG and diesel. Once complete it will then expand the focus to look at coastal and inland river bulk carriers, containerships and tankers.

Henan Diesel is a member of state run China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) and is one of the key research and manufacturing bases of high and medium-speed, high power diesel engines in China.

“Currently, the LNG engine is a hot topic, and we have received some orders of LNG engines especially for use in inland river ships,” says a spokesperson for the company before cautioning that while many companies have been in touch with Henan Diesel about LNG

PURIFICATION Beijing wants to clean up the Yangtze. LNG powered engines are one solution

engines, few have actually committed to buying them. “The fact is LNG engines are just emerging in China and it will take time before they get accepted.”

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33

■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Asia’s lack of appetite for marine insurance

The region dominates the world in cargoes and shipowning, but is a laggard in indemnity, argues Sam Ignarski

T

he list of goods and services whose price is set by the Chinese market has grown ever longer these last 25 years. Production in China of goods has expanded in scale and grown in sophistication with each passing year. Bringing these goods to market is a shipping industry the centre of gravity of which is located somewhere in the East Asian part of the Asia Pacific. Somehow the great changes in the world economy would be harder to imagine were it not for the development of container shipping.

However, one part of this epic story of industrial vertical integration which remains largely unchanged is marine insurance. The big international markets are still flourishing in the traditional centres around and within the Atlantic Ocean. New York, London, Paris, Hamburg, Gothenburg, Oslo, even Genoa and Madrid all have leading marine direct and reinsurance organisations which cater for much of the international demand in the world. This is not to say that there are not very competent and leading players in Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore. But somehow the leading roles are played out elsewhere, even though the cargo, hull and allied liabilities are increasingly catered to within countries rather than from afar. It leads us to wonder.

Where is the marine insurance industry impelled by the cash reserves of the everexpanding economy of China? Is it too soon for this industry to emerge or is it unrealistic to suppose that the money, talent and proclivity is available for such projects?

You do not need a vast amount of capital to commence marine insurance in earnest. The industry comes from a need to share and feather risk among insurers, so that the acute losses do not fall upon a few underwriters. Many established players offer limits of liability well under $10m per incident and then buy all sorts of reinsurance from Munich Re and like reinsurers. Indeed today, the marine branch of insurance is a sort of sideline within much larger general

COST OF CONCORDIA It’s possible to lose an entire year’s income for the marine insurance industry as a whole in the time it takes to sink a large cruiseship insurance operations grown huge under the revenues from general and life related insurances. In London, where the commercial attachment to marine insurance is bolstered by emotional and historical ties, there are perhaps no more than 30 large marine insurance players left in the entire market. You could today acquire a third or half these for perhaps not too much capital, but you would probably despair at the lack of profitability which invests such companies. How do you lose a large capital sum? Underwrite marine insurance risks and wait for the claims.

How about the people end of this industry? Is there sufficient talent in depth available in the rising commercial centres of Asia to man a large global marine insurance operation? This is certainly imaginable. The marine insurance industry, like the container industry, consists of a lot of standardised wordings and established procedures and practices. The pricing models and strategies are not the last word in sophistication and the expertise in problem solving and claims handling grows with each passing year. The essence of success all the same would lie in a generation of profitable underwriters and risk assessors. Such fine skills are rare in the world as a whole and have not necessarily

How do you lose a large capital sum? Underwrite marine insurance risks and wait for the claims 34

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flourished in the marine insurance market competition in Asia — the tendency to discount and to supply lean rates to market demand is not the natural soil for growing a long term underwriting surplus.

Under the circumstances, it is possible to argue that the desire and proclivity of local marine insurers in Asia to grow to play global roles in the market is perhaps still muted in 2013. The tubs of red ink which await the unwary underwriter of marine risks are visible enough. You could say that the large battalions of marine insurance in Tokyo or Shanghai are busy enough supplying services and products to their domestic marine industries, without shouldering the adventures of Hellenic, Ukrainian or Italian shipowners. It is possible to lose an entire year’s income for the marine insurance industry as a whole in the time it takes to sink a large cruiseship or containership or to set a construction yard ablaze. You can see why the old guard of marine insurance, the P&I Clubs are still wedded to the notion of mutuality, not for profit and longevity of function. The fight for marine premium is tough and rather bitter. Rushing in is not the thought that lives in the heads of the careful calculators within insurance companies. There are better opportunities for capital elsewhere, it may be thought, providing much lower hanging fruit.

Insurance ■ ■ ■

Missing opportunities Why the China P&I Club does not sit at the top table in the P&I universe

I

t has all gone rather quiet on the place of the China P&I Club in relation to the International Group of P&I Clubs. As many as three years ago, there was talk that the club’s desire to join the International Group (IG) might be realised quite soon in the light of European regulatory concerns about barriers to entry to the group.

The last outsider to gain full entry was the American Club, back in the 1990s. In some ways the China P&I Club in 2013 looks rather like the American Club did many moons ago. It is rather small in membership and income, its membership is exclusively Chinese and the club enjoys extensive coinsurance arrangements with four existing IG clubs, who effectively provide access to the higher limits afforded by the reinsurance programme. It is said that more than 40% of its premium income is ceded to IG clubs by way of this coinsurance.

The China P&I Club is, however, unlike any other IG club insofar as it has a very large free reserve ( far more than most clubs could contemplate), it is state run and it anchors its investments in ordinary company stocks.

There are one or two barriers standing in the way of the China P&I Club attaining a high place in the P&I universe. The adherence to a national principle, so often a sound thing in the organisation of commercial affairs, is problematic for a P&I club which is striving to find ideal mixtures of risks which include a blend of ship types, operating areas, commercial strengths and members. Like the Korean P&I Club, the China Club remains wedded to the satisfactions of a club whose members all speak the same mother tongue.

But it is easier to deal with the problems and foibles of the international shipping world when your members are drawn from a wider spread of origins. This cosmopolitan ideal also applies in the administration, service provision and problem solving by the club. A powerful China Club in the future might well employ a wider range of

people than are normally available within the marine insurance world of the People’s Republic. One could imagine that the club’s managers could draw talent from all over the region and the world in general.

There are experienced P&I people in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and in the traditional marine centres of the world.

If the China P&I Club is serious about its place in the world, it ought to be thinking about its core management operation over the next 20 years, when strong linguists, subject specialists, lawyers and diplomats will be in great demand. It is not difficult to imagine a much more accomplished and influential P&I club in China. This would be realisable quite readily in financial terms. The challenge will be on how the club deals with the pressures to globalise its operations and to foster ubiquity in the world.

The challenge will be on how the club deals with the pressures to globalise its operations and to foster ubiquity in the world SINOSHIP winter 2013

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Beyond throughput numbers Kicking off our Shanghai special timed to coincide with Marintec China, Asia’s largest maritime show, Katherine Si looks at port developments

U

nder the 12th five-year plan the goal for Shanghai port is transformation. It is all very well being the biggest at something, but the best and profitable are also attributes one should strive for.

Accordingly, Shanghai, the world’s largest port, both in terms of overall cargo and containers, is looking to change its business development model and become a world leading port logistics services provider. Distribution, consolidation and financial services are all on the cards.

Considering the slightly choppy start to the year for container throughput, 2013 is finishing in solid fashion with the port expected to handle some 33.5m teu this year, an increase of 3.5% year-onyear, enough to keep nearest contender,

36

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Singapore, away.

Shanghai’s newly opened free trade zone, which covers Yangshan and Waigaoqiao, is set to cement the city’s leading position. The Chinese government has promised to facilitate and simplify trade procedures in the pilot zone.

Trying to speed up turnaround times Yangshan, Shanghai’s seven-year old deepwater terminal, is now allowing sailings in both directions on its main

33.5m

Number of containers the port will handle this year, up 3.5% over 2012

navigational channel.

Enabling simultaneous movement in two directions will reduce dwell time from three and a half hours to one hour and 45 minutes, while the berth utilisation rate will increase from 72% to 84%.

This year has been a very strong one for transhipment at the port.

Transhipment volumes now account for 46% of the port’s total volume of boxes.

Most notable is the fact that international transhipment has grown by a recordbreaking 35% in the first ten months of the year.

Of course, Shanghai port is about much more than containers. For instance, a new breakbulk port, Nanhui, in the Lingang Industrial Area opened this March. The port is equipped with nine berths and has a designed annual capacity of 2.51m tons. There’s other breakbulk terminals as well as ones for bulk, roros, liquids and LNG and more besides.

On the cruise front Shanghai has two terminals, something no other city in China apart from Hong Kong can claim.

However, despite increasing numbers of calls, both terminals are still in the red, needing their own transformation alongside the wider changes going on at the port.

Shanghai ■ ■ ■

City of deals Shipbrokers continue to grow in size and numbers in the financial metropolis, reports Engen Tham

S

hanghai has been set a goal to be an international finance and maritime centre by 2020. A very good barometer of how far it has got on the maritime front can be seen in the number of brokers in the city. Historically, the centres of shipbroking have been London, New York, Hong Kong and Singapore. But as the largest multinational brokers see their profits falter on plummeting freight rates, they are pivoting to Shanghai to ease their financial woes.

Even as Beijing clamps down on industries guilty of oversupply, most recently introducing limits on ship production, Shanghai’s brokers look to expand and see reasons for optimism.

One cause for optimism is the buoyancy of market volumes. “Well, you say the market is not buoyant, [but it] is freight rates which are sideways. But in terms of market volumes into China, they are growing all the time and for that there is a requirement for a presence here in China,” says Per Herloev, chief representative in the ship sales department in Shanghai at French broker Barry Rogliano Salles.

Barry Rogliano Salles currently has 40 staff in Shanghai and has ambitious expansion plans in the city. “Our sale and purchase department currently has two staff, but will grow to three or four within a few months. The newbuilding section currently has seven people and we’re looking to grow that as well. We also just took on a capesize chartering broker,” says Herloev.

Domestic firms also have a positive outlook for Shanghai broking. Chinese JoinOcean Shipbrokers entered the broking market due to demand from clients whose chartering portfolios they managed, notes Liu Manfang, head shipbroker at the company. Liu thinks that the new Shanghai free trade zone will help to increase trade in the city, which will have a positive impact on local shipbroking.

The company also plans to expand.

Many firms prefer to broker out of Shanghai, rather than traditional centres like Singapore or Hong Kong because of

the proximity of the city to Chinese shipyards. “A lot of shipbuilders have their sales offices in Shanghai, for example, Rongsheng and others all have Shanghai offices. So shipbuilding contracts [with Chinese shipyards] are usually negotiated in Shanghai,” says Benny Wu, director at shipbroker Arrow Asia.

You have to have the China connection somewhere Herloev echoes Wu’s sentiment. “The brokers in Singapore and Hong Kong are of course also competent brokers who have long been working with the China market, but they are not locals. If you’re sitting here in Shanghai and you want to talk to Shanghainese shipowners it’s just two hours in a car, you know there is a lot of business in China done on connections and not just on the telephone. So connections is something which foreign located shops cannot

compete with,” explains Herloev.

Despite the positive outlook of brokers, there are challenges to closing deals in Shanghai. For foreign firms, the difficulty is looking for local hires who have good contacts. “The brokers in Hong Kong and Singapore which have good contacts are all brokers born in China or of Chinese descent. You have to have the China connection somewhere,” says Herloev.

For all brokers, difficulties can arise when they are assisting with finance arrangements. “Bank systems and people are not very familiar with the industry. The financial services sector is the difficulty,” says Wu. “Soft skills need to be improved,” he says, noting English levels in particular.

Although difficulties exist and competition is stiff, the sentiment among shipbrokers is that headwinds are better faced in Shanghai than elsewhere in the world. “We don’t see any negative sides of being here, it’s clear that shipping-wise China is a very important market and Shanghai is the centre,” says Herloev. “We just see it’s growing, we’re happy to be here.”

SINOSHIP winter 2013

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Sturdy shipbuilding scene Shanghai is home to some of the country’s best-respected yards

S

hanghai has long been home to both dependable and innovative shipyards. In Hudong Zhonghua and Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shibuilding (SWS) the city can claim two of China’s blue chip state run shipbuilding brands (alongside, arguably, Dalian Shipbuildng Industry Co). A glance at Hudong Zhonghua and SWS’s set of top international owners on their orderbooks confirms their top status within the country’s depressed shipbuilding situation. Both Shanghai entities are part of China State Shipbuilding Corp (CSSC), the state-controlled umbrella organisation in charge of all government held yards from Shanghai southwards.

Also under the CSSC remit is Jiangnan

Shipyard, the very cradle of Chinese shipbuilding, founded in 1865. Not that Shanghai’s shipbuilders are anything like

Jiangnan Shipyard, founded in 1865, is the cradle of Chinese shipbuilding they used to be with all centrally located yards having shifted to much larger premises on an island to the north of the metropolis in the run up the 2010 World Expo.

CSSC is consolidating its yards. To this end, earlier this year SWS took a 36% stake

in Jiangnan Changxing Heavy Industries from sister company Jiangnan Shipyard and divested 51% interest in Jiangnan Changxing Shipbuilding to Hudong Zhonghua.

SWS, best known for its rigs, bulkers and tankers, and latterly FPSOs, surprised many earlier this year when it won an order for the largest boxships to be built in China so far. The trio of 16,000 teu ships, ordered by sister firm CSSC Leasing, will go on charter to France’s CMA CGM. Among other new products SWS is marketing are small-sized LNG ships. When it comes to LNG Hudong Zhonghua is in an exalted position as the only Chinese yard to have delivered this hi-spec ship type and it is now working on a further series of six 174,000 cu m gas ships.

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Shanghai ■ ■ ■

Shanghai shipping insurance association to be formed AS PART OF the city’s maritime aspirations Shanghai will form a shipping insurance association before the end of the year.

“The association will attract more domestic insurance companies and international players to expand their footprint in Shanghai,” Gan Aiping, a professor at Shanghai Maritime University, told China Daily.

Around a dozen shipping insurance companies have been set up in Shanghai recently, and plans are afoot to open up in the new free trade zone soon.

The association will be led by three major shipping insurance companies in Shanghai, People’s Insurance Company of China (PICC), China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) and Ping An Insurance, which have occupied more than 50% of Shanghai’s shipping insurance market until the sudden rush of openings by rivals this year.

Shanghai accounts for more than 40% of China’s total shipping insurance market.

“We’re pushing the development of shipping insurance by inviting more companies to set up centres in Shanghai,” says Pei Guang, head of the Shanghai bureau of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission.

To this end, the local government has implemented a scheme since 2009 that exempts business tax for companies offering shipping insurance services in Shanghai.

Official data shows that from 2009 to 2012, the Shanghai hull insurance market increased by more than 200% to RMB2.262bn ($370m) from RMB680m in terms of premiums while cargo insurance premiums rose by 14.4% to RMB1.339bn.

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39

■ ■ ■ HUBS: DALIAN

Hat in the ring Dalian is trying to position itself as a hub for northeast Asia. It has many things going for it, writes Jason Jiang AS A PERCENTAGE of GDP maritime accounts for more of Dalian’s wealth than mighty Shanghai. The northeast city lives and breathes shipping – as any visitor can attest. For a number of years the Liaoning metropolis has been trying to position itself as a shipping hub for northeast Asia – it is not there yet, facing severe competition from nearby Tianjin and Qingdao at home and Busan across the Yellow Sea. However, it is a force to be reckoned with.

Where cargoes are traded, hubs are made and in this respect Dalian is in a good position. China’s first iron ore futures contracts started recently from the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which also launched the nation’s first thermal coal futures last year.

On the ports front, the city handles just about every cargo imaginable and in containers can claim to be the fastest growing major Chinese port this year with year-on-year growth at a stunning 25.9% in the first 10 months. Dalian ranks seventh in both containers and overall cargo among Chinese ports. Seventh might not sound like much, but were 40

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it to be in Europe it would be considered one of the continent’s largest port cities.

Xu Song, general manager of Dalian port, tells SinoShip that the year at the port has actually been mixed, with containers and oil strongly up, but products and grain slowing down.

Currently Dalian port operates one of the largest crude oil terminals and the largest LNG terminal in China, with annual handling capacity of 80m tons and it is the most important distribution centre for oil products and liquid chemicals in northeast China. The port also runs China’s fastest growing automotive terminal. A new automotive terminal is set to start operating in 2015 with an annual capacity of 800,000 vehicles.

cluster which has made a tight connection of port, trade and logistics,” Xu says.

In the wake of Shanghai launching its pilot free trade zone many ports in China including Guangzhou, Xiamen, Tianjin and Zhoushan are all planning to follow suit. Dalian is biding its time however.

“Currently we already have a bonded port area, but we will keep a firm eye on the development of the newly formed pilot free trade zone in Shanghai, and learning experiences from there,” Xu says.

Arguably more than the port, Dalian’s most visible maritime connections are via its myriad shipyards – the city churning out more ships in a year than the whole of Germany

Where cargoes are traded, hubs are made “In the current overall depressed shipping market situation, it is essential to find new growth areas. We have attracted more than 100 automobile related manufacturers making investment here and gradually formed an industrial

and Eastern Europe combined.

The city’s top yard, Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (DSIC), is also looking for new growth areas.

Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Marine Services (DSIMS), which is jointly invested by

DSIC (67%), Singapore boxline PIL (18%) and Anshan Steel (15%), has developed 500,000 sq m of space for ship repair, shipbreaking and offshore conversion on the developing maritime cluster that is Changxing island, an hour or so north of the downtown area.

The facility has an estimated annual recycling capacity of 1m ldt, making it one of the biggest in the world.

“The depressed shipping market and the trend of building larger and more efficient vessels has created lots of opportunities for the ship recycling market. Shipping companies have been disposing of old vessels to optimise their fleet, and the government is encouraging ship recycling by introducing several favourable policies,” says Gao Feng, vice general manager at DSIMS. Finally in our hub credentials roundup we turn our attention to training. Dalian Maritime University is the only central government funded shipping tertiary institute in the country and the northeastern city is the calling point for many shipmanagers seeking Chinese crews.

HUBS: TAIPEI ■ ■ ■

The great yard turnaround David Green charts the remarkable resurrection of CSBC

I

n 2002, the then state-owned China Shipbuilding Corp (CSBC) was given two years by Taiwan’s Executive Yuan to improve performance and complete its privatisation or face closure.

Substantial losses as a result of widespread inefficiencies had brought CSBC to its knees, and the turnaround plan was something of a last chance saloon.

Now, just over a decade later, the company is buoyant after successive years of healthy profits and a full order book at both its Keelung and Kaohsiung docks.

“We were facing a crisis, close to bankrupt in 2002,” says K.T. Tsai, CSBC’s director of sales. “But we cut almost 45% of our workforce and the remaining staff were forced to accept a 35% salary cut, which was essential to improve our competitiveness.”

The labour restructuring plan was coupled with a change in emphasis towards focusing just on series construction of container vessels.

Those measures helped CSBC return to profit in 2005, but it has been a subsequent focus on energy-saving technology that has kept Tsai’s sales team in business, notably a contract signed in August to build five 14,000 teu vessels for Seaspan.

“Owners always focus on fuel oil consumption and container loading ability,” Tsai explains.

“So we developed our Energy Saving Bow and it has been very successful – it’s our key technology and has proved useful in securing new orders.”

The ES Bow, which comes in three variants, was developed as a result of owners’ preference for operating containerships

at lower speeds to save on fuel consumption, and now comes as standard as part of all CSBC’s newbuilds, helping to reduce fuel oil consumption by about 10%.

“We also apply the technology to existing vessels,” Tsai says. “We have had five vessels convert to the ES Bow for domestic owners Yang Ming and Wan Hai, and we have also installed energy saving devices for Tai Power Company vessels.”

The ES Bow retrofitting operations take place in Kaohsiung and last just two weeks, allowing CSBC to keep its docks operating at full capacity in between newbuilds.

However, not all of CSBC’s technological innovations have proved as successful.

It’s TRANBO product, which converts panamax container vessels to fit the expanded dimensions of the new Panama Canal, allowing for greater stability and an increase of up to 50% cargo capacity, has yet to receive a single order, largely as a result of adverse market conditions.

An abundance of panamax vessels and the consequent low cargo rates make the $10m price tag for a retrofit simply too high for owners to stomach. By contrast, the fee for an ES Bow retrofit is as low as $600,000 for

a 4,000 teu vessel and owners can recoup that cost in just one or two years.

Tsai also points out that newbuilds incorporate the ES Bow, rather than lower engine capacities, because owners still want the option of running their ships at over 20 knots, in anticipation of possible reductions in fuel-oil prices and also in case they need to run a loop at a higher speed or risk having to operate an additional vessel.

However, the company is aware that there are only so far efficiency savings can take it, and it has started to build offshore support vessels.

“It’s an area that Singaporean and Indonesian yards have already done pretty well, so I’m not sure it’s such a good idea for CSBC,” says Teddy Tsai, ceo of Taipei’s Markis Capital. “They’ve also been spending some money on wind power, diversifying away from their traditional shipbuilding business.”

The diversification strategy makes sense in light of recent falls in shipbuilding prices, which have hurt CSBC’s bottom line, contributing to a more than 50% fall in net income between 2011 and 2012.

“There are just too many competitors including mainland China, Vietnam and the Philippines,” CSBC’s Tsai says.

Looking ahead, CSBC is researching dual fuel systems that incorporate natural gas, which in line with its wind-related venture Taiwan Generation Corp, has an eye on forthcoming stricter environmental regulations, as well as the Taiwanese government’s offer of financial support for green projects.

All in all it is a far cry from the situation the company was in a decade ago.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

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■ ■ ■ HUBS: HONG KONG

Asia focus

Alfred Romann hears how the city’s port needs to focus on ASEAN more

LONG FOCUSED ALMOST exclusively on being the gateway to China, Hong Kong is stepping up its efforts to give its port and shipping industry a more Asian flavour.

Hong Kong emphasised its newfound aspirations for renewed focus on its shipping industry during the Asian Logistics and Maritime Conference here on November 7. The Hong Kong government wants to refurbish its port to facilitate access for the new breed of megaships and speed up operations at its container terminals. The government has set aside a $13m training fund for the maritime and aviation industries. The city is also waiting for a consultancy study on how to expand its role as a maritime hub.

“As neighbouring ports become more efficient, Hong Kong’s logistics and maritime sectors must move up the value chain,” said Hong Kong chief executive C.Y. Leung. “Our focus is to ensure Hong Kong retains its competitive edge in 42

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multimodal connectivity in air, land and sea.”

The reality is that despite its increasingly deep ties with China, Hong Kong’s links with other parts of Asia are weak. Regionally, Hong Kong has been somewhat myopic in its approach to trade and development.

“Hong Kong links with China

years, ahead of the launch of the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015, Hong Kong will be in a position to deepen its ties with Asian countries that are not China. Early next year, it will begin negotiating a free trade deal with ASEAN, the type of deal that China, South Korea and Japan have long had in place.

Intra-Asia trade is growing faster than any other trade in the world are profound… Hong Kong links with Southeast Asia are weak,” said George Yeao, chairman of Kerry Logistics Network.

Geographically well positioned between China and the rest of Asia, particularly the emerging markets of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Hong Kong is in a position to play a big role but to do that, it may have to stop relying on its traditional position.

Over the next couple of

Domestically, Hong Kong has good infrastructure for both logistics and financing.

The challenge is putting both of them together to provide even better services. By providing more financing services to the regional industry and, perhaps, lowering costs by reducing fees, Hong Kong could become a more attractive hub for Asian shipping.

But more than just policies are needed, said Yao. Hong Kong will need more university

departments, conferences and think tanks focused on ASEAN and the city’s relationship with ASEAN, said Yao. “This is a huge multiyear effort but in the end it would bring great benefits,” Yao said.

Being able to derive great benefits from the shipping industry is definitely a longterm prospect. The mood at the Hong Kong conference was definitely gloomy, with speaker after speaker dispelling any thoughts of a rapid return to profitability, particularly in the container shipping business. Almost nobody expects the supply and demand imbalance that has been challenging the industry for several years now to be dealt with any time soon. “(Demand) is picking up from last year but only marginally,” said Alan Murphy, COO at SeaIntel Maritime Analysis. The supply side is not much better.

There has been overcapacity in the market for more than three years and, with large orders in place for new 18,000 teu ships, it is growing at 8% per year.

“There is not enough demand and too much supply,” said Murphy.

The only silver lining is likely to be in the intra-Asia trade, which is growing faster than any other trade in the world.

It is exactly in that trade that Hong Kong wants to play a greater role.

Hong Kong is already a major centre for the shipping industry. Not only is its port large and efficient but a fair amount of financing moves through the city’s capital markets.

The Hong Kong stock market hosts about 13% of the total market capitalisation of shipping stocks worldwide, said Jonathan Windham, Barclays local transport research analyst.

More than half of this capitalisation is in Asia. Shanghai accounts for 14% of the global total and Tokyo 9%. Europe is home to 21%.

BOOKS ■ ■ ■

Garbage rotation Paul French rummages through a series of books on waste and recycling CRASHED CASH There’s money in chips

JUST EXACTLY WHAT gets moved about on ships these days is a subject of constant fascination. A few years ago there were a slew of books dealing with the way everyday products got moved around — The Travels of a T-Shirt, etc, etc.

But what about those less obvious cargoes? Adam Minter’s Junkyard Planet: Travels in the Billion Dollar Trash Trade is a fascinating journey through junk. Minter, a Shanghai-based journalist (though originally from a family of scrap dealers in Minneapolis), looks at how China both produces vast amounts of waste and actually imports it too, by ship, for sorting and, hopefully, recycling.

The range of possibilities is amazing — waste newspaper from Liverpool becomes recycled photocopier paper after it arrives in China; crashed computers, broken mobile phones and a whole array of electronic detritus are shipped from Europe and America to China to be stripped down and any minuscule amounts of rare earths and precious metals

extracted. Across millions of items this can be a decent business.

Of course Minter’s Junkyard Planet also partly solves another problem for shipowners — containers go to Liverpool packed full of Chinamade goodies but can come back uneconomically empty.

Filling them up with the northwest of England’s trash at least makes something; similarly all those stuffed containers reaching Long Beach can partly come back filled with out of date Dell laptops! Of course there’s also the hunger for scrap that means

Reuse and Value started out as an academic study of fabric recycling but it’s far from dry and dull. As well as western charity clothes being shipped into containers to poor areas of India she also looks at how beautiful discarded silk wedding saris are gathered up by dealers and shipped to Europe to become high priced cushion covers. You truly do not always know what is in those containers. There’s more on the globalised nature of this business and the flows of waste from north to south and vice versa in Catherine Alexander

Junk entrepreneurs are looking for ways to feed China’s demand for scrap that manhole covers have gone missing in Manchester, kiddies swings in Kansas and train tracks in Toronto as junk entrepreneurs look for ways to feed China’s demand for scrap.

China is not the only place junk becomes profit. Lucy Norris’s Recycling Indian Clothing: Global Contexts of

and Joshua Reno’s Economies of Recycling: The Global Transformation of Materials, Values and Social Relations.

So ships transport all those broken electronics and out-dated newspapers to China and bring back charming cushion covers from old dresses from India.

The recycling industry is truly

global and relies on shipping and containers to make it affordable so profits can be made. And, as if just to prove the holistic and organic nature of all things, eventually the ships themselves must be broken down, scrapped, junked and recycled. Roland Buerk’s Breaking Ships: How Supertankers and Cargo Ships Are Dismantled on the Beaches of Bangladesh describes the process. When new labour laws and environmental standards were enforced in Europe, the shipbreaking industry and its associated environmental hazards moved to places with fewer regulations, such as Chittagong on the coast of Bangladesh. Here Buerk, a BBC News correspondent, follows the process from the arrival of the ship to its gradual break up and the scavenging of every available recyclable, sellable, reusable inch of the giant vessel. Eventually the best bits are taken away to be sold on the international recycling market — how do they move them from Chittagong? By container, on a ship of course. And so the cycle starts again.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

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■ ■ ■ OPINION

FILLING UP Watering holes such as HK’s Captain’s Bar are invaded by European shipping execs at this time of year

LOAN SHARK ‘Many owners are having recourse to people who lend money at higher rates of interest and who are not terribly nice when they don’t get repaid’

Shipowners and the payday lenders Andrew Craig-Bennett questions whether now is the right time to be buying ships OUR FAMOUSLY CAPITALINTENSIVE, and often valuedestructive, industry, finds itself short of money to borrow, because the bankers spent the dollars on other stuff – stuff that was, indeed, such stuff as dreams are made of, and which proved to be rounded, not with a sleep, but with a depression.

Harry Theochari of Norton Rose, a ship finance lawyer of dizzying eminence, gave a paper a few weeks ago, at Maritime London, in which he traced the near disappearance of “conventional” bank loans, syndicated or not, secured on the asset, as a source of money to buy ships.

This is, according to Harry, compounded by the unfortunate fact that many banks that have been active in the ship finance market for many years are European banks, and have Euro troubles as well as disappearing dollar 44

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troubles, and of course Basel troubles.

So what is the poor shipowner to do? It seems that many owners, like a great many more ordinary people, are having recourse to people who lend money at higher rates of interest and who are not terribly nice when they don’t get the repayments of capital and interest that they have been promised.

On the one hand, you can order a newbuilding ecoship and get export credit from the nation where the shipyard of your choice is to be found. This might be a brilliant solution, except that ecoships don’t seem to make wonderfully

Ships are cheap because money isn’t

good sense. John Doviak and I have been playing with numbers in front of classes at the Cambridge Academy of Transport for a while, and it is very, very hard to make the case for ordering one, absent rather bizarre assumptions about the future of the world economy. The ceo of a wellknown Hong Kong shipowner says, “We have a young fleet, but not a modern one”, and I think he has almost certainly got the right fleet. Put simply, a high fuel price is bad for the world economy and thus bad for freight demand, and if the fuel price falls, your ecoship can do no more than she does already. Do you really want a speed and performance dispute with every fixture, as your ocean greyhound fails yet again to pull the skin off a rice pudding?

On the other hand, you can have recourse to private equity and to the bond markets, and buy a ship that comes with an actual engine. If you have enough money put by to be able to have a flutter with your play money, then private equity is not necessarily daft; at least one Greek owner whose judgment I respect, and who certainly does have play money, has done a deal with private equity. But the real problem with these very definitely nonshipping people is that the rate of return they require is only obtainable by asset appreciation. And that in turn means that they depend, for their required rate of return, on the banks coming back into conventional ship finance.

Spot the deliberate mistake, folks… so much for the giant brains of the private equity world. But maybe they are not the mugs – the shipowner who signs up with them is the mug, because when the expected 20% annual rate of return fails to materialise, the private equity folks help themselves to the company.

Or we can try the bond markets… but according to Harry there are perhaps two shipowners on the planet whose bonds are investment grade, so this isn’t cheap money either – and it comes with a big legal bill, and disclosure obligations that are, shall we say, unfamiliar to shipowners.

What to do? If you believe in peak oil, get yourself an ecoship with export credit. If you don’t, and you are really sure that you can beat the rate of return that the private equity people require, then go with them and I wish you the very best of luck; you are going to need it.

If you have money of your own and don’t plan to leverage, go right ahead. Ships are cheap because money isn’t.

Mere mortals should wait for the banks to come back.

They always have done.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Congratulations — you’re alive, at least for now Bei Hong reflects on surviving a grim year, and warns we’re not in the clear yet HAVING DEALT WITH the autumn crowds of visitors from Europe, who have now headed home for Thanksgiving and the pre-Christmas party season, it’s time to slip into that reflective mode which always seems to come as the year draws to an end and the days get shorter. So what sort of a year did you have? Being a natural pessimist, I didn’t expect much from this year and when you hear 2013 described by one respected shipping sage as “a miserable year”, it looks like I got it pretty much spot on.

Another year when shipowners seemed to spend their time subsidising the transport of the world’s commodities accompanied by continued demands for better, cleaner, more regulated shipping - just don’t ask to get paid for providing it.

For those who made it through this rather brutal year, congratulations. The key now is to survive any upturn. There will no doubt be a few cases when the values improve and banks will finally decide to call it a day and force a sale, if they can more or less get out clean and not take a hit on the rest of their portfolio. Even a bigger round of applause for those who managed to take advantage of this recession and re-invest at the bottom of the cycle, which on reflection seems to have been some time in the first few months of the year. That’s based on the recent upturn, but always beware of the ‘dead cat bounce’ and fears of a rubbish first quarter of 2014 still seem to abound, particularly in dry bulk circles.

Whether it be the argument

on the pros and cons of ecoships, the need to slow steam and the huge increase in capacity which will come when the fleet speeds up again, you were always able to find a good dose of grim news. And come the end of the year, shipping has acquired it’s very own pantomime villain, the private equity

the bud any upturn we might see in 2014. That’s because all this new cash is not going to the beleaguered owners who are still taking delivery of expensive ships in some cases, but to a raft of newbuildings. You can’t fault the logic - the reluctance of bankers to take a haircut has kept secondhand values

Shipping has acquired it’s very own pantomime villain, the private equity funds funds. Having been moaning about the lack of finance available to the industry, the tsunami of cash that has come pouring in is now being blamed as a potential stifler of any recovery, or at least nipping in

artificially high and, provided the ecoships work and the oil price remains high, they really should have a competitive advantage. But does all this mean that we will be burdened by overcapacity just when we

thought we might have worked our way through the orderbook the industry gorged on in the boom times? Probably. And the first ships to be squeezed are going to be the expensive ships ordered pre-2009 which might not be so frugal on their fuel consumption.

So maybe at the end of 2016, I will be reflecting on a market where angry investors who haven’t been around long are suddenly finding that in a downturn, shipping can become a very illiquid market and you’re stuck with those assets you invested in with supposedly sky high returns. And perhaps the managers will be long gone as there does seem to be a sense of ‘never mind the assets, look at the fees’ creeping in. At least the Germans mainly stuck to containerships.

SINOSHIP winter 2013

45

■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

46

WWW.SINOSHIPNEWS.COM

STILL IN THE RED China’s ship repair industry continues to suffer 中国的修船行业持续低迷

SINOSHIP winter 2013

47

Bringing maritime media out of the dark ages

2014

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PSV前景 和润集团简介 2013年冬季刊

om 日 在 s.c 每 更新 new 文 hip 中 inos s w. ww

上海专题报道

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目录 ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 3 编者语 5 经济 7 班轮 9 船厂 13 离岸 15 金融 17 商品 18 物流 19 邮轮

缺乏细节设计和建造标准的船 舶也将后患无穷，并将迅速在业 内树立不可靠和性能不佳的企业 形象

— Wallem Ship Management’s Ray McNamara

9

投机客喜欢PSVs因为它们 更容易建造并且转售利润高

13

— M3 Marine’s Mike Meade

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 21 薛光林 23 虞松波 24 Henry Chiang

25 Jack Hsu

上游业务将成为光汇石油未 来业务增长的主要驱动力 — 光汇石油,薛光林博士

21

■ ■ ■ 专题

26 干散货

28 动力

30 保险 32 上海

■ ■ ■ 枢纽

35 大连

36 台北 37 香港

以前，你可以指望一艘船使 用25年，而现在船东会在船龄 达到15年的时候就淘汰它们

24

生态船的构想还需进一步 求证 — Bernhard Schulte’s Rajaish Bajpaee

■ ■ ■ 评论 39 书籍

■ ■ ■ 意见 0 Andrew Craig-Bennett 4 41 Bei Hong

— Greathorse Shipping’s Henry Chiang

26

香港的物流和海运业必须进 一步向价值链高端攀升

37

— 香港特区行政长官,梁振英 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

1

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编者语 ■ ■ ■

www.sinoshipnews.com ASM刊物 编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com 首席通讯记者 司湘

katherine@asiashippingmedia.com 通讯记者 姜浩

jason@asiashippingmedia.com 北京 上海 香港 大连 广州 台北

Li Deng Bai Engen Tham Alfred Romann Mark Downing Wang Fanglei David Green

永恒不变

供稿人

Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh 摄影

André Eichman, Basil Pao, 封面: HNA Group 所有编辑资料请发送至sam@asiashippingmedia.com 或邮寄到中国大连中山区人民路9号701办公室， 邮编116001 商务主管 Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com 中国销售主管 Tom Wu

sales@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip同时也在东京、首尔和奥斯陆设有广告 代理机构。欲获取当地代理联系信息请发送邮件 到grant@asiashippingmedia.com。 媒体信息可在www.asiashippingmedia.com下载。 所有商务资料请发送至grant@asiashippingmedia. com 或邮寄到Asia Shipping Media, 20 Cecil Street, #14-01 Equity Plaza, Singapore 049705。 设计 Lamma Studio Design 印刷 香港雅联印刷有限公司 订阅 总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取SinoShip 期 刊。对于 所 有 其 他 公司，订 阅 S i n o S h i p2 012 年 4 期 需 要 收 费10 0 美 元 。订 阅 每 月 发 行 两 次 的 P D F 格 式 的 S i n o S h i p电子 新 闻（包 含 独 家 新 闻 、数 据 和 分 析）需 收 费5 0 0 美 元。订 阅 咨 询 请发 送 邮 件 到 su b s@ asiashippingmedia.com。 版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2013 为确保 本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努 力，但出版社 对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何 责任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不 得对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以 任何形式或方式传输。

临近年底，中国航运业在过去12个月内的 变化无疑多于任何类似时期的市场。许多 行业内最为人知的名字已经离开。 魏家福在中远任职40多年后，于今年夏 天离任，他的大举扩张的日子给这家航运巨 头带来了一系列难堪的债务数据。他在近十 年伟大的竞争对手，李克麟也走下航运舞 台。这位前中海集团的掌门人所领导的海 南泛洋航运已经破产。同时，在李克麟离开 中海集团后接过位置的李绍德，也在最近 退休。 在这场权力更迭中，中外运长航集团也 没有幸免，最高管理层也被重组。 我们质疑的是这些国有企业的替换选 择。这些替换的人选不仅要对目前萎靡不 振的中国航运业负部分责任，并且他们的 年龄也将达到退休年龄。中国国企的领导 应当在60岁退休，这些航运公司新换的领 导将仅仅在位两三年。 整个行业需要改变的不仅仅是国有企业 的大批领导更迭，整体观念需要作出改变。 汇报等级必须需要明确，并且不良资产以及 非核心资产需要被处置掉。 今年中国的航运业正在巨大转变之中的 另一个原因是，该行业正成为全国持续的 反腐战争的目标。 中国的国家主席习近平，刚刚庆祝了其 上任一周年。 自从他在一年前掌控共产党以来，习近平 便发誓通过抓捕“老虎”或者高级官员，而 并非“苍蝇”，来铲除党内贪污成风的恶习。 实际的统计数据显示，今年的腐败数量 与去年相当，但或许习近平利用媒体更好 的凸显大型调查。 在今 年 早先时候全面调查中石油高层 之后，习近平的反贪目标指向了航运业。中 远集团的副总裁徐敏杰，在大连中远的前

总经理以及青岛的中远一位高管入狱之后， 也在今年秋天被指控贪污腐败。中远的腐 败故事甚至使该集团公开出面否认魏家福 被限制出行。同时，前大新华物流的董事长 贾鸿祥以及大连瑞海石油化工品运输公司 的董事长茅士家也被相关部门带走调查。 两个人之前都就职于中海集团。 在2013还有几周就过去之际，也许有更 多的航运业高层被调查，许多人已经如坐 针毡。

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

3

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经济 ■ ■ ■

反思经济增长模式 Paul French分析中国领导层需要对零售模式进行哪些调整，以扭转中国经济 发展速度放缓问题 今 年11 月份中国领导层召开 会议，试图对已现颓势的经济 发展模式加以调整。此次的三 中全会,即中国共产党第十八届 中央 委员会 第三次 全 体会 议 （此次会议于去年11月份发起， 当时正式宣告以习近平为首的 新领导班子就任）。就绝大多 数分析师、中国领导层和越来 越多的企业界人士来看，以往 30年中，中国一直奉行的过于 追求增长速 度的发展模 式显 然急需重大调整，而非时至今 日的边发展边调整。 那么，我们能有何期待呢？ 有人认为，可能会加大经济自 由化力度，可能会在一定程度 上放开利率和汇率。汇率改革 这一议题由来已久，不过，长期 以来中国一直为促进其出口而 人为地实施低汇率政策。如今 这一低汇率对于国内消费者而 言意味着他们所有的iPhone手 机和奢侈品牌都价格过高。随 着中国政府开始致力于提振内 需，货币升值现在对于提升本土 零售销售具有重大意义，与向 外出口产品的意义同等重要。 不过，也许最让人期待的莫 过于呼之欲出的户口改革，中国 现行的户籍制度限制了劳动力 在国内的自由流动。如果能够废 除户籍制度（户口），让劳动力 能够更加自由地流动和安居（ 由此可以将储蓄解放出来购买 房产等），可为制造业注入新的 发展动力。

获得新款iPhones手机等几笔 重大的新订单，10月份的业绩 不 可避 免 要好于月平均水平， 不过大家还是希望能够延续这 一发展态势。 还是让我们回来继续探讨 2009 在北京人民大会堂召开的十八 届三中全会。必须改变的一大 2010 方面是巨大的政府支出。中国 国家统计局的数据显示，在今 2011 年前10个月，固定资产投资，即 政府基础设施投资，与去年同 2012 期相比增长20.1%。虽然与过 去几年相比，特别是与中国举 2013* 办奥运和随之而来的经济刺激 计划那段时间相比增速放缓， 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 不过削减固定资产投资的力度 *=预计 仍是不够。固定资产投资占到 资料来源：中国国家统计局 市政府支出的一大部分，虽然 此举可能有助于刺激就业，不 中国领导层可能对经济增长 过 未必能够显著提升劳 动生 对于 集 装箱船 运企 业 来说 速度放缓感到忧虑，不过，按国 至关重要的是，在欧洲和美国 产率水平。虽然这样做在一定 际标准来看，中国经济增长基本 的增长速度加快的大背景之下， 程度上能够提振经济增长，不 面仍相当不错，这点令人鼓舞。 中国的出口形势也相当喜人。据 过 同 时 加 大了通 货 膨 胀 的风 国家统计局的数据显示，中国10 月份工业产出和零售销售双双上 涨，这表明中国目前产销两旺。 通货膨胀率保持稳定，并且今年 第四季度也将保持这一态势。10 月份工业产出同比上升10%，零 售销售同比增长13%，大大超出 中国海关总署的数据显示，尽 险。眼下通胀压力增大（压制 绝大多数分析师的预测。唯一 管无法回到2008年以前的中国 消费者支出）是最让人担忧的 稍有些不太理想的方面是食品 出口黄金时期水平，年同比增 问题。中国的目标是今年将CPI 价格（令消费者感到沮丧，导致 长5.6%的出口增幅也相当不错， 和通胀水平保持在可控范围之 消费者可用于食品以外的支出 特别是考虑到9月份出现0.3% 内，不过，要想切实达成这一目 减少）—10月份消费者价格指 的负增长。当然，由于假期发往 标，就必须继续放缓固定资产 西方国家的发货量大增，并且 投资增速。 数同比增长3.2%。

中国固定资产投资增速(%) —2009-2013年

有可能会在一定程度上放开利率 和汇率

SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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Fuel Cost Reduction.

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班轮 ■ ■ ■

职务。中远集团因爆出多桩腐 败丑闻，成为媒体关注的焦 点。据称，中远集团副总裁 徐敏杰于今年11月初被有关部 门带走，接受调查。今年7月 份，大连远洋运输公司前总经 理孟庆林因涉嫌贪污被逮捕。 此前，在2011年，中远集团下 属青岛远洋运输有限公司原副 总经理宋军也因涉嫌贪污被 逮捕。 李 绍德（如图）从中国海运集 团(China Shipping)董事长的职 位上退休。集团总裁许立荣接 替李绍德，新任集团董事长， 张国发接替许立荣，新任集团 总 裁。许立 荣现年5 6岁，曾先 后担任中国海运集团总裁、中 远集装箱运输有限公司(Cosco Container Lines)总经理和上海 航运交易所(Shanghai Shipping Exchange)总裁。

媒体对中国最大航运企业的腐 败丑闻进行了大篇幅报道。据 传随着对中远集团调查的深 入，前任董事长魏家福已被有 关部门限制离境，对此中远集 团予以否认。魏家福堪称中国 船运业影响力最大的人物， 今年7月份被免去中远董事长

在巴西矿业企业和中国陷入持 续的僵局之时，今年10月底，山 东海运股份有限公司(Shandong Shipping)与巴西矿业巨头淡水 河谷 公司签订价值5 亿美元的 运输协议，实现了巨大突破。 山东海运将租赁淡水河谷公司 的四艘40万载重吨超大型矿砂 船(VLOC)。八月，中国交通运输 部决定审议其禁止30万载重吨 以上吨位船舶停靠中国港口的 规定。中国船东协会常务副会长 兼秘书长张守国在听说有关新

Trucking consolidation Exclusive repair data SPRING 2013

10月底，海南省洋浦经济开发区 人民法院裁定海南泛洋航运有 限公司(HainanPOShipping)正式 破产。9月底，海南泛洋航运有 限公司暂停全部航运服务，并 试图通过当地政府的财政支持 或重组恢复运营。海南泛洋的 总负债额高达7.09亿元人民币。

SinoShip新闻网站过去两个月 间几乎不间断的报道了关于困 难重重的长航凤凰的消息。 由于债台高筑，并且母公司不 愿意施以援手，中国外运长航 集团的这家下属企业在法院的 责令之下，在过去几个月间已 经被迫售出十几艘船。船只的 进一步拍卖近在眼前，有关分

析师认为，如果这家航运企业 今年有幸能够熬过这场危机的 话，预计2013年全年亏损将达 到7亿元人民币左右。

11月14日，台湾散货船东慧洋 海运(Wisdom Marine Lines)在英 国伦敦证券交易所上市，成为 今年亚洲企业在伦敦最大规模 （按市值计算）的首次公开募 股(IPO)。今年秋天该公司还在 新加坡证券交易所发行了其海 外第一次无担保可转换债，共 募资6000万美元。

按 船 只 数 量 计 算，太平 洋 航 运(PacificBasin)是香港最大船 东，在该公司继续剥离非干散 货业务的过程中，已于今年10月 份通过股票市场发布信息称将 出售其拖船业务。

t om ily s a s.c Da ate pnew d hi up nos i w.s ww

Eye on jack-up rigs

闻后表示： “这是完全不当的做 法，我们将对山东海运与淡水河 谷公司的签约事宜进行质询。”

www.sinoshipnews.com

Wah Kwong

Sabrina Chao takes the chair

接触正确客户群体的机会 Project shippers focus on Africa Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism head speaks Hosco’s Gao Yangming: China’s scrapping champion E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

大中华区每一家主要船东和造船厂都在读这本杂志 关于2014年计划的媒体包已经可以在 www.asiashippingmedia.com查阅 广告咨询请联系 grant@asiashippingmedia.com

SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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欢迎您 会期间 在海事 锡兰展台 1) 参观瓦 N2馆N2F5 (展位号

船厂 ■ ■ ■

没有人比新造船监理对中国船厂能作出更公平的评论

新造船监理的观点 SinoShip针对领先的船舶管理公司展开调查，以充分了解中国造船公司在技能和结构方面存在的弱点 在中国投 资造船？很便宜，对 不对？再想想。新造船监理团 队希望将监造的商船数量提高 到韩国的一倍左右、日本的二 倍，并将海外市场份额至少提 高到东亚其他地方的三四倍， 由此产生的一连串质量问题将 让船东寝食难安。SinoShip已针 对许多领先的船舶管理公司和 新造船监理展开调查，以突显 中国造船业存在的各种问题。 “虽然事实证明，价格太高 的 船 舶 绝 不 会 有生存 空 间， 但 是 缺 乏 细 节设 计 和建 造标 准的船舶也将后患无穷，并将 迅 速 在 业内 树 立不 可靠 和 性 能不佳的企业形象。”Wallem Ship Management总经理Ray McNamara表示。 “在规划审批和新造船监管 方面投入的时间和资源是船东 可以做出的一项最具成效的投 资。”McNamara如是认为。 A n g lo -E a st er n某员工指

出： “中国造船厂需要采取更积 极的监管方式，并在不同的施 工阶段进行巡查，以及早发现 问题，采取适当的补救措施。”

质量无法得到有力控制 质量保证和控制及其对中国造 船厂的影响是SinoShip接触过的 许多经理的主要关注问题之一。 “质量控制部门对中国造船 厂的影响力非常小，他们几乎或 根本无法控制生产 部门。”某 位经理声称， “由于质量控制部 门的工作人员未接受充分的培

45%

平均而言，中国造船 厂将比韩国和日本多 花45％的造船时间

训且工作不称职，因此存在很 多问题。” 船 队管 理 负 责 人 K i s h o r e Rajvanshy表示： “中国的质量控 制部门往往隶属于生产部门，因 此生产进度往往优先于质量或好 的工作方法。”中国的质检员往往 充当“安静的看客”，而韩国和日 本的质检员则有权向高层管理人 员如实汇报。 “船东的监理需要独立地提 出好的工作方法或纠正不好的 工艺流程。”Rajvanshy建议。 “在大多数中国造船厂，质检 员就像是一位导游。”Rajvanshy 说 。他 只 需 陪 伴 船 东 的 监 理 或 将 检 查 员领 到 检 查 地 点， 然后就可以离开了。 “他要么忙 着抽烟，要么忙着在手机上聊 天。”Rajvanshy表示。 通常，中国造船厂的绘图流 程和标准既混乱又繁琐。英语 有时糟糕透顶，工作流程晦涩 难懂。工作流程往往无法用言

简意赅的语言来表达。 在中国，项目返工不会被视 为资源浪费，只需将其转嫁给 分包商或工人即可。韩国或日 本 则 会对 返 工 的原 因 进 行 分 析。责任部门将被追究，其往往 会因为浪费资源而受到处罚。 Bernhard Schulte的老板 Rajasih Bajpaee认为“中国造船 厂也会面临劳动力问题。” “最根本的挑战来自于当地 劳动力的构成。”他说， “因为 来自不同省市的工人具有不同 的观点和背景。”此外，他们中 的许多人不属于造船厂，而是由 分包商转介的临时工。 “因此，很难针对员工开展持 续的技能培养。”Bajpaee表示。

引发争论的导火索 在焊接技术方面，船东们一致 抱怨，中国人仍在进行大量手 工焊接工作，能否获得理想的 效果完全依赖于焊工的专业技 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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船厂 ■ ■ ■

术。韩国和日本的造船厂已具 备非常高的自动化水平，这有助 于造船厂提供始终如一的高品 质成果。 焊 工 应 取 得 职 业 资 格， 但是Anglo-Eastern Technical Services反映一些中国造船厂会 使用未取得证书的焊工。 “中国造船厂不想花钱让焊 工参加资格认证考试，因为这 样一来他们的成本会更高，而 且这些工人往往会在过年后离 开造船厂。”Anglo-Eastern某员 工表示。 从好的方面想，中国造船厂 不 会 拒 绝与 整流 罩焊 接 或 通 过研 磨 改 进 外观 有关 的 任 何 要求。 项目交付速度也有问题。对 于大多数商船而言，从钢材切 割到交付，中国造船厂往往会 比韩国和日本同行多花40至50 ％的造船时间。 SinoShip针对船舶公司开展 的调查表明，几乎所有人都认 为中国的国营造船厂建造的船

由于质量控制部门的工作人员未 接受充分的培训且工作不称职，因 此存在很多问题 只要比私营造船厂的好。这要 归功于国营造船厂丰富的经验 以及良好的售后服务保证。

哪些地方需要改进 在对中国造船厂提出的建议方 面，接受我们调查的专家建议 造船公司应更专注于基于模块 的施工技术并格外小心地维护 这一模块化系统，以在整体建 造时使设备保持良好运转，直 到交付。每个造船厂还应集中 全力提升结构舾装的质量控制 水平。 部分新造船监理还敦促中国 造船厂提高整个造船过程的自 动化程度。 在大多数中国造船厂，质量 系统只是纸上谈兵，只出现在 车间的横幅和围板上，这种状

况必须改变。 中国造船厂的大部分人仍然 认为质量仅仅适用于产品。殊 不知，质量贯穿于规格准备、图 纸和细节设计、施工和售后服 务的整个过程。 参与质量控制的人员必须获 得相应的授权。他们还应该对

分包商的工厂采取严格的质量 控制。同样，造船厂每年都要分 析质量问题和返工的成本，并 制定量化的年度改进目标。 造船公司还应该加强对抛光 和美观度的重视。 “中国的 新 船 看上去 并不 新。”Rajvanshy表示。 造 船厂必 须 实 施良 好 的雇 佣政策和措施，以长时间留住 员工。 最后，还有人认为中国造船 厂需要提高售后服务，尤其是 面向全球的售后服务。

改善中国造船业的四个步骤 质量控制部可以向高层管理人员汇报，而不是 隶属于生产部门 ● 提高自动化程度 ● 实施良好的雇佣措施， 以长时间留住员工 ● 重视售后服务 ●

SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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* 其礼以香港其礼-重庆西联律师事务所联营的名义在重庆运营。该联营律师事务所经中国司法部/重庆司法局许可，并是中国西南地区首家经正式批准、由国际律所参与开立 的联营律师事务所。

离岸 ■ ■ ■

欧洲关注PSV现实情况 Katherine Si小议平台供应船的前景和中国在其建 造上的主导地位 中 国 在 建 造 平台供 应 船 （PSVs）的市场上占据主导地 位，虽然近来有些暗淡，但仍然 是一个具有很好前途的领域。 今年PSVs的订购量和2012 年相比有所下降。不过，中国仍 然占据将近50%的订单总量。 P SVs的订购趋势已经 从大 型的PSV转向中等大小的PSV， 尤其是甲板面积在500到750平 方米之间的PSV。 中国PSV建造者正在吸引越 来越多的国际船东下单，不仅 仅是因为可安排的建造档期， 更重要的是便宜的价格。 Mike Meade，亚洲最大的独 立离岸经纪公司M3 Marine的创 立者，认为最近“不绝于耳”的 PSVs订单会导致到2015年供应

超过需求。 “投机客 喜欢P SVs因为它 们 更容 易建 造 并且转 售 利 润 高，”他评论道。 M3 Marine注意到有一趋势， 船东和船厂在中国建造欧洲设 计的北海风格PSVs。比如来自 Ulstein,Rolls-Royce,IMT和Vard设 计的船都有在中国船厂建造。 价格是不可抗拒的，Meade坦 言，典型的在中国造的PSV价格 仅为欧洲所造船舶价格的60%。 如果合同和监管都恰当，长 久以来对质量的关注已经不再 是个问题，他认为。

40%

中国和欧洲建造PSVs 的价格差 来自于Pareto Securities Asia的 David Palmer在供应和需求方面 与Meade持相反态度,他指出目前 大约有379艘PSVs订单，相当于 现存船队规模的29%。但是，今 年交付数量的显著下降，尤其 是和钻井订单相比，这意味有产 生更多PSVs订单的空间。 此外，有22%的PSVs已经超 过25年，新旧PSVs利用率差现

投机客喜欢PSVs因为它们更容易 建造并且转售利润高

在约为35%。 据Palmer的观点，3,0 0 0到 4,0 0 0 dw t的中型P SVs被认为 是“有甜头的“，这个范围内的 PSVs订单会“蜂拥而至”。 全球PSVs的利用水平从一年 前的83%下降到今天的80%， Palmer称，由于市场吸收了新吨 位。 “我们相信市场是平衡 的，80%在未来发展中也可实 现。 “他认为。 PSV市场另一个重要因素是 水下领域。PSV船东升级了他们 的船舶的复杂性，以适应水下 市场。 Palmer坚定的认为PSV市场 和以前相比并没有出现过度建 造，巴西，非洲，马来西亚和澳 大拉西亚日益增长的深水需求 将在未来几年保持中国船厂订 单不断。 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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我们一起合作， 让您的运行更便捷

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您的需求在变化，我们也理解稳定长久的质量和服务的重要性。这就是为什么我们一直在努力做的更好 – 为您提供更好的服务，规范的产品以及持续创新的工作态度和意识，从而为您的工作带来便利。 无论您在哪里，我们都随时随地的准备为您服务，让您的运行效率最大化。 如需了解更多有关我们的产品和服务，请拜访我们的网站和我们最近的产品目录。 www.wilhelmsen.com/shipsservice

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One of Asia’s Leading Maritime and Offshore Oil and Gas Law Firms Wikborg Rein is an award winning* law firm with offices in Shanghai, Singapore, Oslo, Bergen, London and Kobe. For over forty years we have been at the forefront of developments in shipping and offshore oil and gas in Asia. We support our clients with local, English and Norwegian legal advice that focuses on commercial outcomes.

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金融 ■ ■ ■

租赁未来 Jason Jiang参加在北京举行的Marine Money活动 伴随着盈 利困难，船价低以及 运力过剩等种种行业问题，如 何取得融资成为了今年11月在北 京举行的Marine Money 中国船 舶融资战略论坛的中心话题。 中国30家主要船厂的订单都 差不多排到了2015年，今年前 10个月船舶出口比上年也增长 了193%,太平洋造船的母公司 副董事长张明华指出，但他担 心低于成本线的船价还是令船 厂“很难获得银行信任”。 张明华说要想更好的获得融 资，船厂自身应当提高效率以及 生产能力，并且减少对外包工 的依赖。 虽然一些海工产品为中国船 厂带来了一些“活力”，中船重 工的副总经理罗为民同意张明 华的说法，称“我们还需要提高 我们的技术以及质量水平。” 虽然中国船舶的价格对外国

船东具有吸引力，欧洲银行的 现金流动性减弱使得船东寻求 其他融资方式。 “ 我 在 未 来1 2个月内看 到 了更多投资中国航运项目的兴 趣，尽管市场的利润已经在下 降，”Tiger Group Investments的 总经理Jack Sun说。

航运业的期望。目前中国商业 银行在对外国船东延长融资方 面还持保守态度。直接用于造 船的融资还很局限。出口船舶 融资大多数由政策性银行包括 中国进出口银行以及国家开发 银行提供。中国银行的船舶融 资业务在过去十年大大的提高

融资租赁行业将在未来几个月大 幅增长 的 确 是 这 样，交 通 银 行 船 舶融资部门经理赵申赞同的表 示， “尽管航运市场还在低位， 更多的船东准备好投资建造船 舶，一些行业已经开始出现复 苏以及扩张的信号。” 中资 银 行的高 市值以及 相 对健康的资产负债表都引起了

了，然而还不足以与全世界船东 的期望值同步。 “缺少人才与经验，局限的 美元融资，严格的货币政策，官 僚主义作风的融资审核，过度 依赖已建立关系以及人民币升 值的期望都是中国银行向国外 船东提供融资的挑战，交通银

行的赵申综述道。 随着中国商业银行进一步收 紧融资额度，融资租赁将成为 融资安排的渠道，赵申认为。 “ 我觉得融资租赁行业将在未来 几个月大幅增长。” “事 实 上 外国 船 东 从中国 商业银行获得造船和购买二手 船的融资还是很难。外国船东 可以多 关 注 融 资 租 赁 或 是 债 券发行，”赵申说，并强调外国 船东需要“找到对的人”去完 成交易。 新成立的上海自贸区推出了 一系列鼓励航运业以及船舶融 资的政策。交银租赁目前已经 在自贸区设 立的子公司，致力 于航运以及航空。 根据民生金融租赁副总裁乔 凯所透露，该公司也设 立了专 门的船舶以及航空部门。 “我们 试着通过船舶租赁来多元化我 们的业务，目前船舶业务只占我 们总体收入的小部分，我们还 有很长的路要走，”乔凯说。 “目前我们大部分的国际客 户都是在国外注册的中资背景 公司，我们正在努力拓展国际市 场，”中国招商银行的船舶融资 部门副经理苏宁说。 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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商品 ■ ■ ■

真相揭秘：中国越来越依赖 进口石油 尽管坐拥非常可观的未开采页岩油气储量，不过中国现已成为全球最大的石油进口国。 Mark Downing 报道 在满足石油需求方面，中美两 国采取了截然不同的作法。在 美国向着能源自给自足的方向 努力时，中国却越 来越依 赖于 进口石油。在 20 年时间内，中 国从当初的石油净出口国摇身 变为有望赶超美国的全球最大 石油进口国— 根据美国能源 信息管理局的一份有争议的报 告，中国可能在今年 9 月份已经 名副其实地成为了全球最大的 石油进口国。 石油在中国是仅次于煤炭的 第二大能源供应来源，占全国 能源消耗量的五分之一。中国对 石油的巨大需求与其庞大的制 造业和汽车市场密不可分 — 中国在这些方面现已据世界首 位。 今年夏天，据 Wood Mackenzie 预测，中国在 2020 年以前的原油进口总量有望达 到 6 亿吨，总支出将高达 5,000 亿美元左右。为了缓解对进口 石油日益增长的需求，中国政 府正力争实现能源供应的多样 化，同时在因其决策所造成的 环境、政治和经济各方面影响 之间寻求平衡。 尽管中国在 亚太 地 区 拥 有 最大的能源储备，但中国的能 源 供 应 量 仅占国内 能 源 消费 量的三分之二。中国经济蓬勃 发展，增速之快已经超出生产 能力的增长速度，同时中国最 大的油田已经过了产能的全盛 时期。尽管中国正在大力开发 西部内陆省份和近海区域尚未 开采的石油资源— 其中许多 最有潜力的油田都受到领土纠 纷的影响—不过这丝毫无损 中国对进口石油日益增长的依 赖。在此情况之下，中国经济越 来越容易受到石油市场波动和 国际石油冲突的影响。 中国目前是中东石油的最大

中国拥有世界上最大的页岩气储量

进口国，主要进口沙特阿拉伯 的石油，由于伊朗遭受经济制 裁并且政局不稳，所以从该国 的石油进口量现已下降。在中 国进口的石油中（包括从安哥 拉进口的石油），80% 是通过 油轮来运输。海盗横行的马六 甲海峡 (Straits of Malacca) 是航 线必经之路，且周边国家驻有 美国海军基地，可轻松掐断中 国进口石油的生命线。 中国在确保中东石油顺利出 口方面发挥着越来越大的政治 作用，与此同时，中国国有石油 企业以巨大的外汇储备作为其 后盾，正在实现石油供应的多 样化，通过海外投资和签订长 期合约的方法来降低石油供应 中断的风险。此外，源自于哈萨 克斯坦、俄罗斯和缅甸等邻国 的石油输油管线也在一定程度 上降低了中国对通过海运进口 石油的依赖。 中国政府一直在颁布相关法

律法规，旨在降低对进口石油 的依赖。更加严格的汽车燃油 效率标准已经起草完成，同时 燃油税以及国内产品定价机制 改革也在酝酿当中，目标是 使 其石油零售价格能够更好地与 国际市场接轨。此 外，中国对 天然气资源越来越重视。尽管 天然气仅占中国能源消费总量 的 4% 左右，但中国政府计划 在 2020 年前将这一比重提高 至 10%。 幸运的是，中国的页岩气储 量位居全球首位—占全球总 量的 20%—页岩石油储量也 位列全球第三。中国希望像美 国 那 样 通 过 水力压 裂 技 术来 开采页岩油气资源，进而通过 开采丰富、廉价且洁净的燃料 资源来获得同样巨大的经济收 益。 税收优惠、补助和低利贷款 对于页岩气制造商们来说是莫 大的诱惑，令他们个个争先恐

后。这些公司通过建立合资企 业合作伙伴关系，或通过直接 收购外资企业，获得最新的技 术和经验。不过，中国是一个在 水资源安全方面世界排名靠后 的国家，因此这些公司恐怕要 面临一个难题：开采钻井的深 度要比美国更深，平均开采成 本高出十倍。中国最终可能会 开采页岩油气资源，不过要在 相当长的时间后才有可能对中 国预计的石油进口格局产生影 响。 如今，作为全球最大的能源 消耗国，中国比以往任何时候 都更加深入地参与到全球石油 的生产和交易当中。尽管中国 在改革政策的同时也在寻求替 代性能源，但中国对石油的巨大 需求也将与其经济发展情况紧 密关联。最终，中国政府希望未 来通过多样化的能源安全组合 方案，在经济发展、政治稳定和 环境健康之间达成平衡。 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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■ ■ ■ 物流

光棍节销售额飙升给 快递业带来沉重一击 11月11日已经成为中国网购最重要的一天。Jason Jiang报道称快递运营商 几近崩溃 由 于 中 国 电商巨头阿里巴巴 于2009年开创了针对单身一族 （11/11 – 明白了吗？）的一年 一度的网上购物节，11月11日中 国电商业和快递业都经历了创 纪录的一天。卖家在这一天提 供大幅度折扣优惠吸引买家大 量下单。 中国国家邮政局数据显示， 网购量激增，电商企业在短短 24小时内的成交额超过人民币 400亿元。淘宝作为中国最大的 网上交易平台所成交订单价值 超过人民币350亿元。 惊人的交易量背后，快递公 司面临着堆积成山的包裹带来 的巨大压力。 光棍节当天电子商务平台上 的网店约发出3.23亿个快递包 裹，同比增长85%，使快递服务 供应商经历了今年最繁忙的一 周。 18

WWW.SINOSHIPNEWS.COM

“ 这 是 一 个 灾 难 性 的日 子，”圆通快递一位高层说，并 补充道，尽管该公司拥有上海 最大的仓储设施之一，但仍然 无法及时处理所有包裹。小型 快递公司在商业大潮中变得愈 发衰弱。

$5.7bn

11月11日中国网上消 费额高达57亿美元

“虽然网购成交量激增带来 了大量包裹，但有些快递公司 可能还亏损了，”大连申通快递 区域经理Wang Xubo如是估计 道。他解释 说，快 递公司不得

不投巨资添加额外的能力。同 时，由于竞争激烈，物流系统过 于拥挤，中国快递业的利润率 一直在下降。 为了应 对 井 喷 式 增 长 的 包 裹量，快递公司不得不在购物 节 前临时雇用员工、卡车和仓 库 。根 据 中国 快 递 协 会 的 数 据显示，当天快递公司共有约 800,000名员工在工作。该数据 还显示，快递公司安排了150多 个新调度办公室、新增 4,000辆 卡车和100架飞机来应对购物 狂欢节。 “购物节有助于让快递公司 认识到自己运营和基础设施方 面的不足，并最终促进行业的 标准化和整合，”中国领先的快 递公司顺丰速运一位高级职员 说道。 “电商企业和快递业可以合 作缓解递送压力，”北京交通大

学交通教授Lu Xiaochun如是建 议道。 为了确保运输服务更可靠更 及时，一些电商公司已经开始 建立自己的物流网络。 流 行 的 B 2 C 网 站 京 东 一直 在 扩 大 其 在中国 各地 的 物 流 网 络。到 2 01 2 年 年底 其 物 流 网覆盖全国各大城市，总仓储 面 积 达 到10 0万平方米。目前 京 东 正在 上 海 开发 其 最 大 的 现代化仓储项目，总面积超过 20万平方米，预计将于今年年 底开始投入运营，并计划在中 国各地开设类似的 7 个仓储 设施。 飞 速增长的快 递 业也吸 引了来自其 他 行业 的 投资 者。例 如，今 年2月，L e a d i n g C a pit a l、鹏 康 投资 和凤 凰 资 本资产 管 理 对全 峰 快 递 投资 人民币两亿元，全峰快递计划 三年后上市。美国投资者红杉 资本 和 金石 投 资 五 月入 股 中 通；中信资本、元 禾控股和招 商局集团买入了顺丰速运25% 的股份。 “快 速 增 长的电商 市场为 快递业带来一场盛宴，但是， 电商的增长速度最终会放慢， 利润率会进一步收窄。届时快 递业会面临下一轮的挑战和整 合，”中国快递协会秘书长李惠 德告诫指出。

邮轮 ■ ■ ■

长期以来，久负盛名的丽星邮轮一直将 台湾誉为邮轮旅游胜地

两岸对话 随着赴台旅游的大陆游客数量猛增，往来台湾的邮轮班次越来越 多。Katherine Si报道 台 湾 海 峡 最 窄的 地 方仅 宽 13 0 公里，然而在 过去长达数 十 年 的 时 间 里，大 陆 和 台 湾 均未有船只 穿 越 此 处 抵 达 对 岸 。变 化 已 经 开 始 出 现 。如 今，随着台湾和大陆的关系持 续升温，跨越海峡的旅行已经 成 为亚 洲 最 热 门的邮 轮 旅 游 线路之一，台湾正在力争将其 打造为邮轮旅游胜地，目前在 不遗 余力利用 这 条 线 路 带 来 的机遇。 台湾岛北部的基隆港今年有 望接待约60万名游客。仅今年 头十个月间，该港口接待游客数 量已高达50万，刷新历年接待 游客数量纪录。 当地港口有关部门将猛增的 游客人数归功于邮轮运营商。随 着在欧洲和北美地区邮轮业务 量下滑，目前邮轮运营商正积极

在亚洲市场拓展商机，以弥补欧 美市场业务下滑造成的损失。 两岸直航始于2008年，自此 以后 往 来台湾 和 大 陆 越 来 越 容易。 据负责监管台湾所有港口的 台湾港务股份有限公司(Taiwan International Ports Corporation, TIPC)的数据显示，随着中国大 陆和台湾的直接联系日益紧密， 加上在亚洲部署更大型船只是 大势所趋，台湾的邮轮业将迎来 辉煌，创出很多项新纪录。 今年将总共有214艘国际邮 轮造访台湾，与2012年相比猛 增71%。据TIPC预计，2014年停 靠台湾的国际邮轮数量将不低 于230艘。 嘉年华邮轮公司(Ca r nival) 已经 决 定，从明年 5月份 起， 基 隆 港 将成 为其 蓝 宝石公主

号(Sapphire Princess)邮轮的 母 港 。蓝 宝 石 公 主 号 可 搭 载 2600多名乘客，在常规赴日旅 游 线 路 中 将 停 靠 鹿 儿 岛、长 崎和冲绳。

71%

2013年赴台邮轮数 量与去年同期相比 增长71%

丽星邮轮(Star Cruises)、皇家 加勒比国际邮轮(Royal Caribbean International)和歌诗达邮轮(Costa Cruises)都已将基隆港选作自己 的基地之一。

台湾 交 通部 航 港局副局 长 李云万表 示，目前台湾方面试 图通过协商，为中国大陆和台 湾之间的邮轮旅游业创造更宽 松、更便利的发 展环境。目前 停靠台湾的邮轮，大部分来自 大陆。 为进一步吸引大陆游客乘邮 轮来台旅游，台湾从今年开始为 大陆游客签发双入境许可证， 以鼓励大陆游客乘坐邮轮进出 台湾。 该 双 入境 许可证 允许 游客 搭乘飞机或邮轮入境，随后仅 可 乘 坐往 返台湾的 邮 轮再 次 入境。 台湾旅游局统计数 据显 示，2012年来台旅游人数共计 700万人次，其中230万人次 来 自大陆。台湾希望到2016年将 来台旅游人数增至1,000万。 公主邮轮台湾公司总经理徐 景奇认为，除了与大陆的关系 之外，台湾的地理位置和丰富 的自然景观也是赴台邮轮数量 猛增的原因。他介绍说，台湾位 于东北亚地区的中心，所以除 了临近的中国大陆之外，也吸引 大量的日本和韩国游客来观光 旅游。 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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光明的未来 本期封面故事，Katherine Si采访光汇石 油集团主席薛光林博士

光

汇石油在很短的时间内便实 现了长足发展，从一家小型 供油公司成长为一家全球性 的石油行业企业。该公司作 为中国目前最主要的海上船 舶供油服务 商之一，也开展海外业务，开发油田和天 然气田，并拥有一支超大型油轮船队，配 合其数 量日益增长的供 油船 舶为客户提 供服务。 “中国将继续推行市场化改革，保持经 济长期健康发展，而中国的城市化进程将 为其国内消费需求和工业需求的长期增长 带来巨大的发展潜力，并为更高的能源需 求创造无限可能，”光汇石油集团主席薛光 林博士如是认为。 目前，该公司的发展重点是中国的船用 燃料油仓储及码头业务，计划在舟山群岛 的外钓岛建造一个316万立方米的石油仓 储和码头设施，并在大连长兴岛打造一个 719万立方米的石油仓储和码头设施。加上 其在深圳的已有设施，光汇石油目前在中 国拥有总库容达到1500万吨的石油油库。 公司还在宁波、青岛和上海拥有租用的石 油仓储设施。 光汇石油已经成为亚洲供油领域最知 名的企业之一。在过去的几年中，就对中国 和新加坡的供油量而言，该公司一直位列

上游业务将成为光 汇石油未来业务增长 的主要驱动力 前三。 薛主席并不仅仅满足于让光汇石油成为 一家供油公司，他还带领光汇石油开拓石 油供应链的其它领域。 该公司的国际贸易及供油部门在美国又 增加了一项新的原油资源，从而能够在拉

美地区寻找价格富有竞争力的供应商进行 原油交易，再套利销往北亚地区。但该公司 搁置了其在欧洲的扩张计划，且搁置会一 直持续到市场情况改善为止。 为了助力全 球石油业 务的发 展，光汇 石油已经组建了自己的油轮船队。去年， 该公司启用了第一艘由韩国现代建造的超 大型油轮。目前，它已拥有五艘这样的油 轮。除了超大型油轮外，光汇石油还使用 其它供油船舶为客户提供服务，这些船舶 的发展非常迅速，仅今年一年时间便增加 了15艘。 随 后，光汇石油迎 来了薛主 席最大的 变革举措，即涉足石油和天然气的勘探和 开采。 新疆迪那1气田已为该集团带来了大量 的现金收入，而吐孜气田开发计划也已获 得了国家发改委的批准，预计不久将正式 投产。 “我们将继续进一步开发油气田，部署 我们专注于上游业务的战略，”薛主席如是 说道，并补充称： “上游业务将成为光汇石 油未来增长和增值的主要驱动力。展望未 来，中国对石油和天然气资源的需求将保 持强劲的增长态势，未来有望继续上调天

然气的价格。” 尽管2013财年上半年的财务表现受到了 严重影响，但“我们根据不同的市场和业 务环境调整了业务战略和风险控制措施， 将会显著改善经营业绩，”薛主席表示。 “我们坚信公司的核心业务，尤其是上 游业务的可扩展性和全球拓展将为光汇石 油奠定坚实的基础，使之成为国际知名的 能源集团。”薛主席总结道。

光汇石油 光汇石油集团总部位于香港，主 要从事供油业务、石油仓 储和 码头业务及海洋运输。公司日益 注 重上游业务。其船队包括五 艘新的超大型油轮。

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舟山之雄 Jason Jiang通过和润集团的董事长了解该集团筹建大型船队的计划

距

离宁波不远的舟山群岛以前 一度是活力不足的渔业的大 本营，现已迅速崛起成为船 运和贸易中心。 随着政府一系列优惠政策相继出台，舟 山群岛新区不断获得新的发展动力。散货 市场和液化天然气领域的贸易商及船运企 业争先恐后选择将这块宝地作为各自的业 务枢纽。 总部位于舟山的浙江和润实业集团有限 公司（以下简称“和润集团”）是一家业务 涵盖粮油加工、物流、能源、房地产开发以 及船舶修造等众多领域、多元化经营的民 营企业。目前该集团正着手在舟山群岛新 区建设粮油集散中心。 今年10月份，该集团与上海外高桥造船 公司签订造 船 合 约，委托 对 方建 造四艘 180,000载重吨的海峡型船舶，计划交付日 期为2016年。 和润集团董事长虞松波表示： “建造大 吨位散货船将 会极大优化集团的运力结 镇江和武汉的项目建设现已完成，有望 构，降低运输成本。”他还说，目前散货船 船队中船的吨位仅有50,000载重吨左右。 于今年年底开始投入运营。此外，该集团 据虞松波先 生介绍，根据 舟山群岛新 还在天津、营口、珠海、北部湾和成都等地 区的发展规划，未来十年内，和润集团将 签署了投资协议，计划三年内在这些地区 打造一支 总 运力达4 0 0万载 重吨的粮油 开始运营。 虞先生透 露说，远期规 划还包括在贵 谷 物运输船队，创建 新的国际 粮油运输 阳、昆明、南昌及合肥建设无水港。 产业链。 他非常清楚目前存在货主组建自己船队 “我们将充分利用政府的政策支持，将 国内市场与国际市场连接起来。未来三到 的趋势，不过他对这种趋势表示担心。他以 五年，我们将投资300亿元人民币左右，以 中国最大的粮食贸易企业中粮集团有限公 舟山为依托，构建一个网络并沿长江建设 司(COFCO)为例，中肯地表述自己的看法。 10大基地，打造集粮食加工、船运、仓储和 九年前，由于船舶亏损严重，中粮集团被迫 出售了所有航运资产。 贸易众多功能于一身的 一直以来，虞先 生致 产业链。” 力于推动中国的货主和 详细规划包括以舟山 民营航 运企 业 通 过 兼 为中心，构建一条北起营 并、重 组和 建 立合 资企 口和天津，南至珠海和北 业等手段 来进行业务 部湾的沿海物流链；以长 预计和润集团未 整合。 江为主轴，形成一条东起 来五年将总计投入 目前，和 润集团的下 镇江，武汉居中，西至重 49.2亿美元 属企业包括舟山中海粮 庆和成都的沿江物流链。

$4.92bn

油工业有限公司和舟山市普陀油脂 运贸 有限公司，前者是该地区一家重量级的粮 油贸易企业，后者经营着中国规模最大的 专业植物油运输船队，在中国占有80%左 右的市场份额。

和润集团 浙江和润集团有限公司总部位 于舟山，是一家业务涵盖粮油 加工、物流、能源、房地产开发 以及船舶修造等众多领域、多 元化经营的民营企业。目前该 公司正计划建造一支总运力高 达 400 万载重吨的强大的散 货船队。

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■ ■ ■ 人物专访

稳步发展 Engen Tham与Greathorse Shipping总裁Henry Chiang小聚， 该公司所属Tiger Group

私

有 船 东公司 G r e a t h o r s e， 在 印 证 了 其 名 字 的 同 时， 正 在 阔 步 前 行。在 其 他 船 东挣扎之时，Greathorse 仍 旧保持盈利并订购了12艘64，000载重吨 ultramaxes型节能船，订单由澄西船厂和 扬子江船业平分。 在管理公司之时，Henry Chiang很好地 引导公司稳定发展。来自海员世家的Chiang 在2005年加入Greathorse之前曾在Lloyd’s Register工作三年，担任大中华区的区域经 理。他的父亲和祖父都曾在航运业工作。 公司由Xue Chao Cun成立于1997年， 隶属于香港私人投资公司Tiger Group Investments，其在与中国航运业的关系上 有所成绩。 “公司和中国的航运业联系紧 密。我们的客户包括华能集团，中国海运和 中化集团。”Chiang说道。 专注于向高质量的租船人提供长期租 船是关键，他表示， “我们只向一流的租船 人提供租船。” 公司的另一 个 优 势 是 其 从 属于T i g e r

G r o u p，这 为 公司提 供了金 融 和 行 业 支 持，Chiang表示。 公 司 与 银 行 的 关 系 也 很 好，这 可 以 为公司提 供 强大 的 船 舶融 资 渠 道。“ 我 们 与国 外和中国的 银 行 都 有坚 实 的 关 系，”Chiang说道。合作的中国银行有中国 进出口银行，国家开发银行和工银租赁。 国外银行包括DnB, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank 和ABN。 Greathorse对船舶投资的评估持谨慎和 长期观察的态度，以具有竞争力的租船价 格为客户提供现代化的节油船舶，这使得 公司在非常困难的市场中颇具竞争力。 尽管Greathorse在市场中超过了其他同 行，公司并未忽略全球船东面临的挑战。 “ 中国是个非常重要的市场。最大的威胁就 是吨位的过剩。还有很多造船产能存在， 尤其是在中国。现在很容易以合理的价格 下单，但是在未来几年这将为市场带来更 多压力。”Chiang指出。 最 近 节 油 技 术 的发 展 将 加 快 竞 争 的 脚步。 “许多船东相信如果没有买进新型

我们进行风险规避并对我们的投资持谨慎态度 24

WWW.SINOSHIPNEWS.COM

节油船，那么在 未来几年 将无 法参 与竞 争，”Chiang表示。 “这将为年轻船舶的淘 汰带来压力。以前，你可以指望一艘船使用 25年，而现在船东会在船龄达到15年的时 候就淘汰它们。” 公司正在稳步发展。起初Greathorse是 一家商业资讯公司，为外国船东提供航运 交易经纪服务，但是在2005年，公司成为船 东。不过，尽管其胃口发生了变化，公司仍 然安于传统型船舶的业务，并未计划进入 高科技船舶领域。 “ 我 们 没 有 打 算进 入 L N G 或 是 海 工 船 舶领域。我们对投资机 遇始终 保 持 谨 慎，”Chiang称， “我们专注于传统船舶，因 为我们知道我们做的很好。”

G R E AT HOR S E SHIPPING 成 立于1 9 9 7年，G r e a t h o r s e Shipping是一家专注于小型集 装箱船，化学品船，油轮和散 货船的私人公司。是为数不多 的保持盈利的船东之一，公司 目前船队包括22艘船及12艘在 建船舶。主要提供12到15年的 长期租赁服务。

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

‘最终一 切都归结 到数字计 算’ 正如Sam Chambers在香港发现 的那样，Oak Maritime的董事 总经理Jack Hsu是位智者

香

港：Oak Maritime（香港）董 事总经理Jack Hsu是亚洲船 运世家第三代中非常有代表 性的人物。他读书时学的是 经济学专业，在金钱方面精明过人，而这 一特质在兴衰起伏不定的船运界大有用武 之地。 Oak Maritime Group 是亚洲船运业最有 名的企业之一，其船队有 21 艘船，其中既 有散货船也有集装箱船，另外还订购了四 艘船。该集团通过下属的办事机构开展业 务。其主要的办事机构新兴航运 (Sincere Navigation Corporation) 是一家台湾上市公 司。集团通过 Oak Maritime 在香港的办事 机构统筹协调日常管理工作，Jack Hsu 本 人常驻香港。 尽管波罗的海干散货运价指数 (Baltic Dry Index) 最近有所上升，Hsu 对前景持谨 慎态度。在展望远期运费协议 (FFA) 市场 时，Hsu 对干散货运输运营的可持续性表 示质疑。 他指出： “船东们正在入市，并开始在这 个价位下订单。确实有说法称价格已经触

底，这显然也是船东入市的原因所在。不 过，从现金流可持续性的经济角度来看，我 认为现在说价格触底还为时尚早。” 在谈及船舶过时对市场造成冲击的可 能性时，Hsu 直言不讳，表示技术的作用不 大，更大的影响来自于经济层面。 他 表 示： “这 就 好 像是拿出纸 笔和尺 子，计算如何才能最经济合算。” 他继续介绍说： “就船龄较长的船舶来 说，关键在于没有债务。因此，从没有负债 和所有流动资金的角度来看，船东基本上 是关注运营成本。这样的话，从竞争优势 的角度来看，如果他的船还有五到十年的 使用寿命，则船东肯定会希望市场有大的 变数，从而淘汰所有经济实力最薄弱、难 以生存下去的船舶，将这些船送到拆船厂 做报废处理。这样的话，一旦市场回暖，他 就能够从中受益… 最终一切都归结到数字 计算。”

这就好像是拿出纸笔和尺子，计算如何才能最 经济合算

尽管今年他周围的许多同行都一直忙于 订购新船，Hsu表示他绝不会轻易拨款采 购新船。他告诉 SinoShip： “没有更多订单 的实际计划”，他补充说未来几年中绝大 多船厂已经饱和。

OAK MARITIME Oak Maritime Group是亚洲船运业 最有名的企业之一，其船队有21艘 船，其中既 有 散 货船 也 有集 装 箱 船，另外还订购了四艘船。该集团 通过下属的办事机构开展业务。其 主要的办事机构新兴航运(Sincere Navigation Corporation)是一家台湾 上市公司。集团通过Oak Maritime 在香港的办事机构统筹协调日常管 理工作。

SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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您会看到船龄只有六 年或七年的船只开始 报废

航速致胜 Sam Chambers发自SinoShip最新一次干散货运输商务早餐会的报 道：散货船航速关系到行业的前途命运。

1

0月18日，在香港举办的SinoShip干散 货运输商务早餐会(Dry Bulk Business Breakfast)上，与会的船东、承租方及 航运经纪人均持谨慎自信的态度。 这次早餐会由DVB和RightShip赞助，与会 的40位高管来自各行各业，他们就当前干散 货运营的可持续发展情况进行了深入的探 讨。就在今年秋天，波罗的海干散货运价指 数(Baltic Dry Index)跌破了2000点。 DVB银行研究部高级副总裁Mitul Dave在 谈及市场前景时指出： “我认为，大量新增吨 位在一定时间内将不会产生太大影响。总体 看来，与今年相比，我对2014年更有信心。” 前知名业界大亨，现经营迪拜船东/贸 易商Panacore的Mudit Paliwal也同意这一看 法。他认为，第三季度和第四季度海峡型船 舶主要是运输铁矿石。 他指出： “从澳大利亚运出的铁矿石吞 吐量为5000万吨左右，因此，我坚信市场 还有后续潜力。” 他介绍说，日运费率达到40,000美金时 纯属“虚高”，不过他认为，从当下到年底 这段时间，日运费率保持在25,000至30,000 美金的区间比较合理。 在谈及来年形势时，Paliwal指出，在接下 来的12个月内力拓矿业(Rio Tinto)和澳大利亚 金属集团(FMG)将有9000万吨的超额产量。 他 进 一步 解释 说： “我 乐观 地认为市 场已经触底，并且度过了今年一季度的低 谷。在相当长的一段时间内，海峡型船舶 的运费率不大可能回升到当初5,000美金 的高位。”

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尽管波罗的海干散货运价指数(Baltic Dry Index)近期有所回升，但Oak Maritime（香港） 的董事总经理Jack Hsu对未来却持谨慎态 度。在展望远期运费协议(FFA)市场时，Hsu 对干散货运输运营的可持续性表示质疑。 他指出： “船东正在入市，并开始以此价 位接收订单。确实，的确有说法称价格已经 触底，这显然也是船东入市的原因所在。 不过，从现 金流可持 续性的经济 角度 来 看，我认为现在说价格触底还为时尚早。”

航速每下降1节， 就会有9%的船队受 影响 棘手难题 第三方船 舶审 查公司R i g h t S h ip 的老板 Warwick Norman提出了一个关键问题，即 航速问题。他指出，目前海峡型船队的平均 航速约为11.4节。于是，问题在于： “如果日 运费率达到30,000美元，我们便会感受到 提高航速的压力，那么我们也要开始更换 动力系统吗？” Hsu对此表示赞同，他补充说，速度已成 为阻碍海峡型船舶供应的主要因素。 他详细介绍说： “2009年海峡型船舶市 场暴跌，而三四年后船租才到期，因此当 时的船东都需要寻求新的业务，所以必然 会考虑减速航行。因为减速航行的影响，

导致了供应延误，这一点没有人真正计算 过。很多人都曾考虑过这个问题，但直到 目前为止，并没有引起足够的重视，而当市 场需求真正复苏时，人们才认识到这一问 题。实际上，市场一直处于十分均衡的态 势，年中的情况也是如此。因此，货物需求 一有增长，马上就会通过市场反映出来。” DVB研究部高级副总裁Dave对此表示 同意，认为航 速已经 成 为处 理 过 剩吨位 的“核心问题”。 他指出： “航速每下降1节，就会有9%的 船队受影响，差距非常大，尤其对长途运 输铁矿石来说更是如此。”据他估计，当日 运费率升至35,000美金时，船东就会倾向 于提速。 与会的香港五大船舶管理公司都表示， 客户未曾要求它们提高船舶航速。 Dave认为： “基于航速考虑，运费率有上 限；不过，基于订单消费情况考虑，运费率 也会有下限。我认为船东们已经意识到， 必要的时候他们需要放慢速度。” 在谈及订单时，Dave表示，单是今年就 已经收获了约650艘散货船的订单，不过， 订单越来越集中在中等吨位的船舶。 在谈及散货船订单时，他表示： “巴拿马 型船最让人担忧”。不过，他补充说，总体 看来，已订购的船舶数量仅占现有船队的 16%，而之前该比例曾高达近50%。

巴拿马型船的定位 在谈 及巴拿马型 船 时，迪 拜Pa n ac o r e的 Paliwal承认，巴拿马型船获得的订单量相 当可观，不过他认为该领域拥有更加美好 的前景。 他补充称： “从根本上说，巴拿马型船主 要用来运输煤炭、粮食和铝土矿。如果你 认为在钢铁领域还有后续发展潜力的话， 那么铝业必定是其推动因素。许多大型铁 矿石企业已经将大量资金投入到新的项目 中。虽然有众多冶金厂都在建造之中，但远 不及铝土矿的开采速度。尽管铁矿石眼下 是市场的驱动力，但如果你留意来自行业 咨询公司Wood Mackenzie等机构的报告， 就会发现，目前全球每年的煤炭海运量大 约为十亿吨，而预计未来十年该数字将增 至近18亿吨。新增的部分从何而来呢？当 然不是印度尼西亚，因为他们目前的年吞 吐量约为3.2亿吨，其备用储量还不足以填 补预计新增的这部分煤炭量。在印尼，当 地关注的是煤炭税收问题。因此，新增煤 炭量将源自世界的两到三个地区，即澳大 利亚、以莫桑比克为首的东非以及美国。因 此，吨英里数会持续增长。我认为巴拿马 型船的远景充满希望。” 针对这些对煤炭量的设想，DVB的Dave认 为美国的页岩气革命未必如一些人所言的那

干散货 ■ ■ ■

样前景美好，但是纵览全球，页岩气前景光 明，必然会对煤炭需求的前景产生影响。 Dave说： “我们笃信全球页岩气革命会 对煤炭需求带来一定的影响，因为几乎所 有页岩气都可用于供电。” 在小吨位市场，华林集团(Wallem)船舶 租赁经纪部常务董事Michael Birley指出，9 月份海峡型船舶的订单量猛增600%左右， 而轻便型散货船仅增长了20%。 Paliwal称： “大灵便型船和大灵便型运输 船较为平稳。一般来说，该市场波动不大。” 他说： “大灵便型运输船队种类繁多，且 非常分散。”由此就不难理解为何其增幅 不如大型散装船了。 Dave说，很明显市场的“口味”变了，从 大灵便型运输船转向了超大型散装船。

生态船舶研讨 在长达两个小时的早餐会上，生态船舶成 为了研讨的中心话题。 RightShip总裁Norman主张： “生态船舶不只 是一时的潮流时尚，将会成为大势所趋”。 Hsu则对此持审慎态度。他指出： “在看 生态船的数据时，务必要十分仔细。如果 一一加以比较，我认为生态船在节省成本 方面相当具有吸引力。这意味着，如果传 统老船和新型生态船均以设计速度运转， 即发动机最大输出功率的80%至90%，我们 对两者加以比较，不难得出令人信服的结 论。我认为华尔街和主要的热钱投资者已 经注意到这一点，因此订单量才会激增。但 实际上，目前市场上的船用燃料价格在600 至650美金之间，因此，市场的实际情况是 没有船会按设计速度航行。” 贝仕船舶管理有限公司(Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement)总裁Rajaish Bajpaee谈到： “首先，生态船的构想还需进一步求证。还 有大量数据需要证实，因此仍需假以时日。 其次，投资生态船和非生态船的区别在于， 它听上去似乎对投资者有利，但实际上，期 租承租人占有了收益的三分之二，而船东 仅仅能够获得三分之一的收益。因此，如果 注意到这一点，情况就有所不同了。” DV B 干 散 货 运 输 集 团的 高 级 副 总 裁 MaartenVis表示，生态船将成为他们订购 船只时的首选。他补充道： “效率低的船只 盈利少或根本不盈利。因此，我们偏爱节 能高效的船只。” 干散货运输中还有另一个关键因素尚未 被纳入考虑，即减速航行对原有资产造成的 损害。Bajpaee指出，减速航行时，老旧船舶 的发动机可能无法持续运转更长的时间。 这样一来，这些船舶的价值就会逐渐下降。 Bajpaee认为： “就新式生态船来说，由 于采用现代化的电控发动机，其工作时间

全球页岩气革命会对 煤炭需求带来一定的 影响

要长得多，运行的速度也快得 多。因此，这不只是燃油效率问 题，还在于船只自身的性能。” DVB的Dave认为，技术过时给 干散货运输市场造成的打击比 不上集装箱运输船领域。 他的同事Vis说，DVB不太可能给船龄在 15-18年左右的老旧船舶提供资金支持，技 术过时是影响其注资决策的重要因素之一。

新船可能提早报废 在这一问题上，Vis以2006-2008年经济繁 盛时期在中国新兴造船厂订购的大量船舶 为例进行说明。 他若有所思地说， “我们发现这些船舶 出现的质量问题越来越多，基本上五年后 这些船的发动机都出现了各种毛病。这会 成为加快这类船队淘汰的诱因吗？这能为 部分新订单腾出位置吗？” 华光海运控 股有限公司( Wa h Kwon g Maritime Transport Holdings)首席执行官Tim Huxley认为，这部分船队会提早报废。 他解释说： “那些未必现代化的新船只 过早报废，是我们不可能忽视的事实。在 过去的五年中，以高价建造出来的大量船 只，现在在技术上已经过时了。这将导致一 些奄奄一息的企业在没有资产净值但船只 完好如新的情况下勉强维持。我可以预见 到，一旦市场再遭挫折，你就有机会看到船 龄只有六年或七年的船开始报废。”

KCMaritime的首席执行官Vikrant Bhatia 提出，呼之欲出的压舱油污水处理系统法 规离我们越来越近了。 “这会不会是压垮骆 驼背的最后一根稻草？”他非常好奇， “因 为，尽管购买该系统的成本正不断下降， 可是由于这些船中的绝大多数都没有配备 为这些系统提供足够功率的供电设备，因 此，安装所需的总成本实际上不降反增。” DVB的Dave表示，由于这类船队中72% 左右的船只船龄不足十年，所以反而是那 些船龄最久的船只不大可能会受到压舱油 污水处理系统或是技术过时问题的影响。 对于海峡型船舶而言，这一比例为76%，只 有 3% 的船只船龄超过 25年。 他说： “将 会受 到 影响的不是 那 些老 旧船只，而是那些相对较新且造价高的船 只。2008 年前高价订购的船只负债率较 高，因此收支平衡点也非常高。纵观总体干 散货市场，在过去的几年里，其信贷可靠性 肯定已经大打折扣，因此压舱油污水处理 系统的应用很可能就是压垮骆驼背的最后 一根稻草。但是，这指的不是那些船龄最 长的船只，受影响最大的可能是那些相对 较新的中间层船只。 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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中国将在未来至少 20年成为造船业的主 导力量

全速进入中国 全球顶尖发动机制造商继续争先恐后涌向中国。Wang Fenglei报道

动

力装 置 业 务 领 域 的主 要 参 与者 继续涌向中国。今 年， 在 上 海 举 行 的 中国 国 际 海 事会展(Marintec China)规 模空前，展览大厅内，世界顶级的船用发 动机品牌到处可见，这 就是 一 个很 好的 例证。 虽然对于中国的造船厂而言，2013年是 最为艰难的一年，但这并不会阻挡中国在 未来至少20年成为造船业的主导力量。欧 洲和美国的发动机制造商希望确保未来的 稳定发展，因此将部分业务拓展到中国在 当前是势在必行的。 美国的卡特彼勒公司就充分地证明了 这一点。今年，中国国家发展和改革委员

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会对卡特彼勒与安庆中船柴油机有限公 司的合资企业项目一路大开绿灯，该项目

将制造Mak品牌的中速船用发动机。 “这个合资企业是卡特彼勒在全球中 速发动机领域的唯一合资企业，延续了公 司与中国领先公司建 立合作伙伴关 系的 一贯战略，”卡特彼勒海洋和石油动力分 部副总裁Richard Case说道。 “该合作伙 伴关系将使卡特彼勒处于更有利的竞争 地位，并支持其在中国和整个亚洲客户群 的增长。” 该合资企业将制造Ma k品牌的M 2 0和 M25中速船用发动机。 此外，今年年初，劳斯莱斯还在广州新 开办了一家海上服务机构，是继已投入运 营的香 港、大 连和上海办 事处 之后的新 机构。 该 机 构面 积 达 7 0 0 平方米，毗邻广州 繁 忙的商港和船 舶维修 码 头，包 括一 个 维修车间、一 个 供 维修工程 师和客户支 持人 员组 成的小型团队使 用的办 公室。 与 此 同 时 ，曼 柴 油 机 与 透 平 ( M A N Diesel & Tu rbo)已经开始在中国完整地 建 造涡轮 增压机，销售给当地市场的造 船厂。 “中国对于涡轮增压机业务部门具 有 十分重要的战略意义，”高级副总裁兼涡 轮增压机业务部门主管Ralf Großhauser 说道。 “借助TCR涡轮增压机的本地化，我们 能够支持欧洲产品的生产、缩短交付时间 和削减运输成本，为我们的中国客户带来 实惠。” 曼柴油机还参与了中国建造的第一艘 双燃料液化天然气(LNG)运输船，配备五个 174,000立方米容积的船只，将在沪东中华 造船厂建造。 这些船将配备中速MAN B&W双燃料柴 油发动机(DFDE)系统，即MAN 51/60DF， 可让船舶使用气体和燃油燃料。

沪东重机建立服务网络 国营企业沪东重机有限公司已经建立了 命名为 Global TechService 的自有国际服 务网络。 沪东重机 Global TechService 不仅提供 沪东重机的原装零配件，还提供技术服 务和培训，包括发动机改装、大修、维修 及翻新等。除了遍布中国的办事机构，沪

东重机 Global TechService 还在雅典、汉 堡和新加坡设立了办事机构。 沪东重机隶属于中国船舶工业集团公 司，并有四个子公司—中船三井造船柴 油机有限公司、上海沪临重工有限公司、 广州中船船用柴油机有限公司和中船动 力研究院。

动力 ■ ■ ■

Wärtsilä的繁重工作 该芬兰公司在中国的投资超过大多数公司，现在开始获得回报

玉

柴船舶动力有限公司目前正 在与Wärtsilä合建一家中速 船用发动机合资企业，计划 将于明年 6 月份投入运营。 该 公司 首先 专 注于 生 产 W ä r t s i l ä 品牌的W20、W26和W32中速船用柴油发 动机，该型发动机将用作主要动力装置和 发动机组。工厂的设计年产量为400台。 同时，相关新闻报道称，一台WärtsiläX40 低速发动机近期在珠海通过了其型号核准测 试(TAT)，测试是在获许可方—玉柴的测试机 床上进行的，证明其符合所有船级社的要求。 此发动机的缸径为 400 毫米，动力输出 范围为 4,550-9,080 千瓦，可适用于五到八 缸的配置，涵盖了市场上的小缸径终端产

品。它具有一个电控共轨系统，带时间控制 式燃油喷射功能。Wärtsilä指出这是轻型 船只的理想选择。 X型发动机有更高的冲程缸径比，因此 能实现较低的发动机速度和较低的制动燃 料消耗率(BSFC)。 最后一条Wärtsilä新闻，今年10月份披露 称，该芬兰公司将为两家中国造船厂制造的 两艘液化天然气运输船提供Wärtsilä50DF 双燃料发动机和动力装置系统。

“中国的船东开始大力投资由双燃料发 动机提供动力的液化天然气运输船，而这 些最新的订单将为中国乃至全球市场增添 动力，”Wärtsilä Ship Power销售副总裁 Aaron Bresnahan说。 两家中国造船厂—宁波新乐造船集团 与中远集团（大连）船厂—将为两个不同 的中国船东分别建造液化天然气运输船。 这两艘船容量为 30,000 立方米并将用于沿 海贸易，定于2015年交付。

中国船东开始大幅度投资双燃料发动机的 LNG运输船

中国海洋石油总公司和河南柴油机进入液化天然气领域 中 海 石 油 气电集团目前正在与河 南柴 油机重工合作开发一系列全新的船用发 动机。 河南柴油机重工首先考虑开展有关采 用液化天然气燃料或液化天然气与柴油 混合燃料的国内渔船的改革项目。相关项 目完成后，就会将重点扩大到沿海和内河 散货船、集装箱船和油轮。 河南柴油机重工是国营企业中国船舶 重工集团公司 (CSIC) 旗下的成员公司，也 是中国中高速、大功率柴油机的重要研究 和制造基地之一。 “目前，液化天然气发动机是一个热 门话题，我们收到了一些液化天然气 发 动机订单，尤其是用于内河船只的液化 天然气发动机，”公司发言人表示，之后 该发言人谨慎指出，虽然 许多 公司已与 河南柴油机重工接洽液化天然气发动机 业务，但实际承诺购买此类发动机的公 司则寥寥无几。 “事实上，液化天然气发 动机在中国刚刚兴起，要得到市场 认可 尚需时日。”

液化天然气发动机 获得认可尚需时日

北京意欲清理长江。液化天然气发动机是一种解决方案

SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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不祥的预感 一艘大型游轮的沉没可能会让整个 海上保险行业损失整整一年的收入

亚洲海上保险市场一蹶不振 虽然亚洲拥有世界领先的货船和船东公司，但是在赔偿方面却相当落后，Sam Ignarski如是认为。

近

25 年来，由中国市场调节价 格的商品和服务变得越来越 多。中国生产的商品规模在 逐年扩大，同时日趋成熟。 亚太地区某些东亚航运公司的工作重心是 将这些商品推向市场。如果集装箱运输业 的规模在过去几十年未发生巨大的改变（ 通过建立庞大的航线、大批码头并高效开 展运输业务），很难想象世界经济会发生 如此巨大的改变。 在这一划时代的行业垂直市场整合过 程中，海上保险业却依然独善其身。大西 洋及周边的传统国际贸易中心继续蓬勃 发展。纽约、伦敦、巴黎、汉堡、哥德堡、 奥 斯陆，甚至 热 那亚和马德里 无 不迎合 国际 需 求，设 立了领 先的 海上 直 航和 再 保险组织。这并非表明东京、上海、香港 和新加坡的保险公司既无能又缺乏领导 力。但不知何故，他们将领导力发挥在了 别 处，即 使 货 物、船 舶和 共 同 债 务能 够 很 好地满足国内需 求，也 不去满足国外 的需求。我们不得不产生怀疑。如今中国 经济 蓬 勃发 展，雄 厚的现 金储备将 推动 海上保 险 行业朝哪 个方向发 展？这个行

业崛起的速 度是不是太快，或者此类 项 目不缺 乏资金、人 才和 机会是 一种不切 实际的假设。 你并不需要大量的资金便可以有把握 地 开展 海上保 险 业 务。该 行业 为了满足 在保 险公司之间分摊 和平 摊 风险，从而 为少数保险商分担严重损失的需求而存 在。许 多老牌保 险公司为每次事故 提 供 的保险额度远低于1,0 0 0万美元，而且他 们还向慕尼黑再保险等公司购买各种再 保险产品。事实上，海上保险现在只是大 型综 合险公司的副业，综 合险 及 寿险才 是其主业。在伦敦，从事海上保险的公司 无外乎离不开情感和历史因素的牵绊，目 前整个市场可能还有不到30家大型海上 保险公司。你可以用不多的资金收购其中 三分之一或一半的公司，但是你可能会因 投资这类 盈利能力不足的公司而感到失 望。你是如何损失一大笔资金的？承担海 上保险风险并等待索赔。 这个行业的人 员构成 如何？在日益 繁 荣的亚洲商业中心，是否有足够的人才管 理庞大的全球海上保险业务？当然，这是 可以想象的。海上保险行业，如集装箱行

你是如何损失一大笔资金的？承担海上保险风 险并等待索赔 30

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业，提供很多标准化的措辞和既定的程序 和做法。定价模式和策略绝非纸上谈兵， 问题解决和理赔处理的专业能力也在逐 年提高。成功的方式万变不离其宗，需要 借助可实现 盈利的保险商和风险 评 估师 来实现。总之，这种精湛的技术在世界上 并不多见，在竞争激烈的亚洲海上保险市 场中尚未形成蓬勃发展的趋势，打折和通 过提供精益率满足市场需求的倾向并不利 于实现长期承保盈余。 这种情况让我们不得不怀疑，亚洲当地 海上保险公司希望并致力于通过自身的发 展在全球市场占据领先地位的目标可能仍 然无法在2013年实现。到粗心的海上风险 保险商发现的时候，亏损早已一目了然。你 可能会说，上海或东京的海上保险公司总 部正在忙着向其国内的海洋产业提供服务 和产品，对于承担希腊、乌克兰或意大利 船东公司的风险无暇顾及。一艘大型游轮 或集装箱船的沉没或者施工场地起火可 能会 让整个海上保险行业损失整整一年 的收入。你会发现为什么海上保险的保守 派 P&I Club 仍然坚守互惠互利的原则， 而不是以盈利和事业长青为目标。围绕海 运保险费展开的将是一场艰苦卓绝的持久 战。保险公司内部那些谨慎的精算师们不 会匆忙做出决定。他们可能会认为还有更 好的赚钱机会，轻松摘得累累硕果。

保险 ■ ■ ■

缺少机会 为什么中国船东互保协会未能坐上船东互保协会的头把交椅

中

国船东互保协 会已完全脱离 国际船东 互保协 会 组织。三 年多以前，鉴于欧洲监管机构 十分关注加入国际船东互保 协会组织面临的各种障碍，据说中国船东 互保协 会很快就能加入国际船东互保协 会组织。上一个加入者是于20世纪90年代 加入该组织的美国船东互保协会。在某些 方面，中国船东互保协会与很多年前的美 国船东互保协会看起来有点相似。成员和 收入相当少，成员全部是中国人，该协会 与四家现有的IG协 会签订了应用广泛的 共同保险协议，这四家协会可以有效地享 受再保险计划所提供的更高限额。据说， 通过共同保险的方式，中国船东互保协会 将超过40％的保费收入转让给了IG协会。 但是，与任何其他IG协会不同的是，中国 船东互保协会拥有非常庞大的自由准备金 （远远超出大多数协会的预算），它属于

国营企业，并且主要从事普通公司的股票 投资。 中国船东互保协会需要解决一两个问 题，方能提高其在船东互保协会的地位。 秉持国家原则对于商务企业 来说合 情合 理，但对于船东互保协会却困难重重，船 东互保协 会正在设法寻找各种合理的风 险规避方法，包括整合船舶类型、经营范 围、商业优势和成员。和韩国船东互保协 会一样，成员都来自同一国家的中国船东 互保协会将继续致力于提高协会的满意 度。但是，当成员来自多个国家时，国际航 运的问题和弱点将变得更容易解决。这个 大同化的理想同样适用于帮助协会进行 管理、提供服务和解决问题。将来，除中

国海上保险领域专业人才外，实力雄厚的 中国船东互保协会很可能会招纳更多的人 才。不妨想象一下，协会经理将在全国和 全球范围内吸引各种人才的加入。香港、 新加坡、台湾及全球各大传统的海上保险 中心拥有大量经验丰富的船东互保人才。 如果中国船东互保协会重视其 在全 球的 地位，则应该认真思考一下未来20年的核 心管理业务，那时实力超强的语言学家、 学科专家、律师和外交官的需求将很大。 不难想象，中国船东互保协会将会取得更 大的成就并对 世界产生巨大的影响力。 协会已经具有实现这个目标的充足财务实 力，其面临的挑战将是如何应对业务全球 化压力并提高其在全球市场的地位。

该协会面临的挑战将是如何应对业务全球化 压力并提高其在全球市场的地位 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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不仅限于吞吐量数字 我们的上海特刊刊出之日恰逢亚洲最大的海事展—中国国际海事会展 (Marintec China)开幕之时，Katherine Si概览上海港口发展情况

根

据“十二五”规划，上海港的 目标是实现转型。上海港在 得以傲视其他港口的最大吞 吐量方面的确令人称道，不 过成为利润最丰厚、最好的港口也是其应 当努力的方向。因此，作为整体货物和集 装箱吞吐量均位居世界首位的双料冠军， 上海港正在寻求转变其业务发展模式， 力争成为全 球领先的港口物流服务提 供 商。物流配送、整合资源和金融服务都是 可发展的方向。 鉴于今年年初集装箱吞吐量业务有小 幅震荡，在即将结束的2013年，上海港的 表现 堪 称 不俗，今 年全 年 集 装箱吞吐量 预计将达3,350万标箱，与去年相比增长

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3.5%，足以将不相上下的竞争对手新加坡 甩在身后。 上海新成立的自由贸易区涵盖洋山和外 高桥，必将进一步巩固上海的领先地位。 中国政 府已经承诺 将方便和简化试验区 内的贸易手续。

3,350万

今年在上海港操作的集装箱 数量将达到3,350万标箱，与 2012年相比增长3.5%

为了加快其周转速度，上海洋山深水港 主航道现已正式实行双向通航。洋山是上 海已建成七年的深水码头。 双 向 通 航 常 态 化 ，将 使 船 舶 待 泊 时 间从以前的三小时半 减至一小时四十五 分 钟，同时 泊位 利用率 将从7 2 % 提 升至 84%。 今 年上 海 港 的 转 运 业 务发 展 非 常 强 劲。转运量现已占上海港总运量的46%。 最引人注目的是，今年前10 个月，国际转 运量的比重已经增至创记录的35%。 当然，上海港绝不仅仅限于集 装箱业 务。例如，今年三月新建的上海南汇临港 工业区的新杂货码头。该码头配有九个泊 位，设计年吞吐量为251万吨。此外还有 其他杂货码头负责处理散货、滚装装卸、 液体和液化天然气等。 就邮轮业务而言，上海有两个码头，除 了香港之外中国其他城市都无法与之 相 比。不过，尽管邮轮停靠量不断增长，这 两个码头仍然处于亏损当中，需要其加大 自身转型力度，在港口推行更广泛的变革 措施。

上海 ■ ■ ■

交易之都 在上海这座金融大都市中，船舶经 纪公司的规模和数量都在不断增 长，Engen Tham 报道

上

海已确 立 到 2 0 2 0 年成 为国 际金融中心和航运中心的目 标。要想知道上海在航运方 面到底取得了多大的进步， 有一个非常好的衡量标准，就是看这座城 市有多少家船舶经纪公司。在历史上，伦 敦、纽约、香港和新加坡曾并称四大航运中 心。不过，由于规模巨大的跨国船舶经纪公 司看到企业利润因受运费暴跌影响而陷入 停滞，他们开始转向上海寻求发展来缓解 金融困境。 虽然中国政府目前正在大力打压那些严 重供大于求的行业，就在最近开始对船舶 生产予以限制，上海的船舶经纪公司仍想 扩大规模，并看到了乐观的理由。 乐 观 的 理 由 在 一定 程 度 上 源 于 市 场 交易量的回升。法国船舶经纪公司Ba r r y Rogliano Salles在上海的船舶销售部门的首 席代表Per Herloev表示： “当然，有人说市 场状况并未有所好转，[不过]这是受运费下 降所累。不过，就中国的市场交易量而言， 一直都在增长。正因为如此，有必要在中国 设立办事机构。” Barry Rogliano Salles目前在上海有40 名员工，并且有在上海扩展业务的宏伟计 划。Herloev 继续介绍说： “我们的销售和 采购部门目前有两名员工，不过未来几个 月内将增至三或四名员工。造船业务部现 有七位员工，并且我们也正在计划壮大队 伍。我们刚刚收购了一家好望角型船只包 租船船舶经纪公司。” 国内企业也同样看好上海船舶经纪业 务的 前景。中国上海津 洋船 务有限 公司 (JoinOcean Shipbroker)首席船舶交易经纪 人Liu Manfang介绍说，上海津洋船务之所 以涉足船舶经纪领域，是因为那些委托他 们进行租船组合管理的客户有这方面的需 求。Liu认为，新设立的上海自由贸易区将 有助于增大上海的贸易量，这对当地的船 舶经纪业务将产生积极影响。该公司还计 划继续扩大规模。 许多公司之所以看重设在上海的船舶 经纪公司，而非像设在新加坡或香港这些 传统中心的船舶经纪公司，是由于上海这 座城市具有临近中国造船厂的地理优势。 中国的船舶经纪公司Arrow Shipbuilding Group的总监Benny Wu表示： “许多造船厂 都在上海设有销售办事处，例如，中国熔盛 重工集团及其他造船企业都在上海有办事

处。因此，[与中国造船厂的]造船协议通常 都是在上海商定的。” He rlo ev非常 赞同B e n ny Wu的看 法。Herloev解释说“当然，新加坡和香港的 船舶经纪公司也非常具有竞争力，毕竟他们 长期与中国市场合作，可惜的是他们不是 上海本地企业。如果您在上海本地开展业 务，想与上海本地的船东谈生意，至多不过 花两小车程而已；我们都知道，要想在中国 谈成生意，很多情况下靠的是关系，而不是 靠电话沟通那么简单。因此，关系这方面是 设在中国以外的公司所不能竞争的。 尽管船舶经纪公司前景向好，要想在上 海达成交易依然困难重重。对于外国公司

您必须在某方面有中 国的人脉关系

而言，困难在于招聘有良好人脉关系的当 地员工。Herloev 介绍说： “凡是在华有良好 人脉的香港和新加坡船舶经纪人，都是在 中国出生或有中国血统的经纪人。您必须 在某方面有中国的人脉关系。” 对于所有船舶经纪人来说，在他们协助 进行融资安排时就会遇到问题。Benny Wu 介绍说： “银行系统和有关人员并不太熟 悉这个行业。困难之处就在于金融服务方 面。 “软技能”需要加以改进。”他特别提 到了英语水平。 尽管困难重重且竞争激烈，船舶经纪公 司都认为上海的业务环境比全球其他地方 要好得多。 “我们认为在上海开展业务有 百利而无一害，显然在航运方面充满智慧 的中国是非常重要的市场，并且上海是其 中的中心。我们发现上海发展势头喜人，我 们很高兴在这里开展业务。 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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强大的造船基地 这座大都市成为一些中国最有名望的船厂的家

上

海长期以来已经成为稳定发 展和不断创新的船厂的家。 位于上海的沪东中华造船和 上海外高桥造船可以称为中 国国有造船企业中的蓝筹（此外，大连船 舶重工也在其中）。只要看一看沪东中华和 外高桥从领先的国际船东中获得的一系列 订单便可知它们在中国低迷的造船环境中 突出的地位。这两家造船企业都是中国船 舶工业集团(CSSC)的下属公司，这家国有企 业掌管着上海以南的国有船厂。 江南造船也是CSSC的下属公司，是中 国造船业的元老，成立于1865年。这些上 海造船企业已经和以前不太一样了，曾经它 们都坐落在市内，但是由于2010年世博会 的举办，这些船厂转移到了城市以北的岛 上，生产场所也变得更大了。 CSSC正在整合其船厂资源。为此，今年早 些时候，上海外高桥从姊妹公司江南造船收

江南船厂，成立于 1865年，是中国造船 业的元老

购了江南长兴重工36%的股份，并将其在江 南长兴造船51%的股份转让给了沪东中华。 上海外高桥，最有名的产品便是钻井， 散货船和油轮，以及近来开发的FPSO，今 年年初船厂接获的一份建造中国迄今最 大集装箱船的订单着实让大家意外。三艘 16,000标箱的集装箱船由姐妹公司中船航

上海航运保险协会即将成立 作为上海海事发展宏伟计划的一部分，上海将于今年年底成立 上海航运保险协会。 上海海事大学教授甘爱平向中国日报记者介绍说： “上海航运 保险协会成立之后，将会吸引更多国内外保险公司扩大他们的 在沪业务。”最近，已有十多家船运保险公司在上海设立了办事 机构，并准备在上海新成立的自由贸易区开展业务。 该协会将由在上海的三大航运保险公司牵头，即中国人民保 险公司(PICC)、中国太平洋保险公司(CPIC)和平安保险公司，在今 年竞争对手纷纷涌入上海开展业务之前，这三家保险公司共占上 海航运保险市场超过50%的市场份额。 上海在整个中国航运保险市场中所占份额超过40%。 中国保险监督管理委员会上海监管局局长裴光介绍说： “我 们希望通过邀请更多的保险公司在上海建立运营中心，推动航 运保险事业的发展。” 为了实现这一目标，2009年以来当地政府就开始实施有关方 案：凡是在上海提供航运保险服务的企业都可以享受免除营业 税的政策优惠。 官方数据显示，2009年至2012年期间，上海航运保险市场 的保费收入增长超过200%，从6.8亿人民币增长到22.62亿人 民币（3.7亿美元），同时货物保费收入增长14.4%，达到13.39亿 人民币。

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运租赁订购，将租给法国达飞。 其它上海外高桥正在推广的新产品包括 小型LNG船。当提到LNG船时，沪东中华占 据着领先地位，它是中国唯一一家已经交 付了这种高规格船型的船厂，现在公司正致 力于另一系列六艘174,000立方米液化气船 的工作。

枢纽：大连 ■ ■ ■

枢纽资质概述 大连试图将自身定位为东北亚的枢纽。它正从多个角度诠释着其重要作用，Jason Jiang报道 相比富足的上海，航运在大连 的国内生产总值中占比更高。 每一位来到这里的游客均可证 明，这座东北城市是航运业的 栖息和呼吸之 地。多年来，这 座位于辽宁的大都市一直试图 将自身定位为东北亚的航运枢 纽。但是，由于面临着来自本国 的天津和青岛以及隔黄海相望 的釜山的激烈竞争，因此这个愿 望至今尚未实现。但这座城市 确实是一个不可忽视的存在。 货物集散之处便是枢纽汇成 之 地，如此说 来，大 连占据有 利的地理位置。中国的首个铁 矿石期货合约最近开始在大连 商品交易所上市交易，该交易 所去年还推出了全国首个动力 煤期货合约。 令人难以置信的是，大连港 几乎能够处理任何货物，而大连 港今年的集装箱业务在中国港 口中可以算得上是发展最为迅 速的，前十个月的业务量同比增 长高达25.9%。就集装箱业务和

整体货运业务而言，大连在中国 港口中位居第七。排名第七也许 听上去并不怎么样，但如果是在 欧洲，人们会认为它是欧洲大 陆最大的港口城市之一。 大连港总经理徐颂告诉 SinoShip，大连港今年的业务情

货物集散之处 便是枢纽汇成 之地 况实际上喜忧参半，集装箱和石 油业务强劲上扬，但产品和粮 食业务则稍有下滑。目前，大连 港运营着中国最大的原油码头 之一和最大的液化天然气接收 站，年处理能力为8000万吨，是 中国东北地区最为重要的成品 油及液体化学品集散地。该港 还运营着中国发展最快的汽车 码头，并将于2015年建成并开始 运营另一个全新的汽车码头，年

处理能力将达到80万辆汽车。 “当前 的 航 运市场 整 体低 迷，因此有必要寻找新的增长 领域。我们已经吸引了10 0 多 家汽车相关厂商在此投资，并 逐渐形成了一个联系紧密的港 口、贸易和物流产业群”，徐颂 表示。 随着上海推出试点自由贸易 区，包括广州、厦门、天津和舟 山在内的许多中国港口都打算如 法炮制。大连也在等待时机。 “目前，我们已设 立了一 个 保税港区，但我们会密切关注 新 建 立 的 上 海自由贸 易区， 汲 取 经 验 教 训，”徐 颂 说 。 可以说，除港口外，大连最主要 的海上连接来自于其不计其数的 船厂。该市一年生产的船只量超 过德国与东欧所产船只的总和。 大连的顶级船厂大连船舶工 业公司(DSIC)也在寻找新的增 长领域。 由大连船舶工业公司(67%)、 Singapore boxline PIL(18%)和鞍

山钢铁(15%)共同出资成立的大 船集团海洋服务公司(DSIMS) 已在长兴岛开发了一片50万平 方米的区域进行船舶修理、拆 卸和海上改装。位于市区北部 的长兴岛距离市区约一小时车 程，其航运群正在发展中。这里 每年的拆船能力预计为自重100 万吨船舶，位居世界第一。 “低迷的航运市场以及建造 更大且效率更高船只的趋势已 为拆船市场带来了大量商机。 航运公司为了优化船队会处置 老旧船舶，而政府也会推出许 多 有 利 政 策 鼓 励 拆船 业 的发 展，”大船集团海洋服务公司副 总经理高峰如是说道。 最后，在我们对大连作为航 运枢纽的资质总结中，让我们 来关注一下培训。大 连海事大 学是中国唯一一所由中央政府 出资建立的航运大专院校，而 这座位于中国东北的城市则是 许多航运公司经理招揽中国航 运人才的聚焦点。 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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■ ■ ■ 枢纽：台北

船厂东山再起 DavidGreen跟踪中国造船股份有限公司神奇的复活 2 0 0 2 年，台湾行政院限期两 年，要求国有中国造船股份有限 公司提高业绩，并完成民营化 或关门大吉。 普 遍 效率低下造 成 重 大 损 失，致使中船公司遭受重创，重 整计划堪称最后一线生机。 现在，仅仅十年以后，该公司 连续数年获得可观的利润，基 隆和高雄码头订单充足，其股 票涨势强劲。 “2002年，我们面临一场危 机，几近破产，”中船公司销售 总监K.T.Tsai说道。 “但是，我们 裁员近45%，并要求留下的员工 减薪35%，这对提高我司竞争力 36

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而言至关重要。” 在实施劳动力重组计划的同 时，该公司还实施了一项变革，即 重点转向集装箱船的系列建设。 在这些措施的帮助下，中船 公司于2005年扭亏为盈，但是 公司后续对节能技术的关注使 Tsai的销售团队持续活跃，尤其 是八月签订的为Seaspan建造五

集装箱装载能力，”Tsai说。 “因 此，我们开发出节能型船首，而 且一直非常成功—这是我们的 关键技术，对于争取新订单非 常有用。” 我司根据船东节省油耗低速 运行集装箱船的喜好开发出节 能型船首，目前有三种款式，且 已成为所有中船公司新产品的

2002年，我们面临一场危机， 几近破产 艘14,000标准箱船舶的合同。 “船东始终关注燃油消耗和

标配，能减少大约10%的油耗。 “我们还将该技术运用到现

有船只上，”Tsai说道。 “我们为 本地船东阳明和万海将其五艘 船改造成节能型船头，并为Tai Power Company的船只安装了节 能型装置。” 该公司在高雄进行节能型船 头改造，仅在过去两周中船公司 便使得其码头完成新建进入全 负荷运转。 然 而 ，中 船 公 司 并 非 所 有 的 技 术 创 新 都 成 功。例 如 TRANBO产品，该公司改造巴拿 马型集装箱船，以适应新巴拿 马运河扩大的尺寸，从而实现更 大的稳定性，并将货运能力提 高50%，但该公司目前还未接到 任何该产品的订货订单，很大 程度上是因为市场条件不利。 大量的巴拿马型船以及随之 而来的低货运费率使得船东难以 承受改造船只需要的1,000万美 元的标价。相比之下，节能型船首 改造船只的价格低，4,000标准箱 船只的标价仅为60万美元，且船 东在一到两年内便可回本。 Tsai还指出，因为船东仍然希 望以20海里/小时的速度运行船 只，且预计燃油价格可能会下 降，另外船东可能需要以更高 速度循环运行船只或需要冒着 运行另一艘船的风险，所以新 船安装了节能型船首，而非性能 较低的发动机。 然而，该公司明白，到目前为 止，仅有效的节约是可行的，且 已经开始建造海上支援船舶。 “新加 坡和印尼的 船 厂 在 这个领域做得相当出色，所以 我不确定中船公司是否非常适 合发展这个领域”，台北Markis Capital资本CEO Teddy Tsai说 道。 “他们为实现多样化发传统 造船业务以外的业务，已经在风 电方面投资不少。” 最近造船价格下跌，并触及 了中船公司的底线，使其净收入 在2011年和2012年间下降50%， 所以多元化战略非常明智。 “竞争对手太多，其中包括 中国大陆、越南和菲律宾的公 司，”中船公司的Tsai说。 展望未来，中船公司正在研 究采用天然气的双燃料系统， 这与其风能 相 关 企 业Ta iw a n Generation Corp的发展相一致， 中船公司密切关注即将颁布的 更加严格的环保法规，以及台 湾政府为绿色环保项目提供的 资金支持。 总而言之，该公司相比十年前 已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。

枢纽：香港 ■ ■ ■

聚焦亚洲

Alfred Romann了解香港的港口如何加强与东盟的合作力度 长期以来，香港几乎完全把自 己定位为中国的南大门。如今， 香港已经做出进一步努力，力 争加大其港口和船运行业面向 亚洲市场的力度。 在11月7日于香港 举行的亚 洲物流及航运大会上，香港重 点强调了重新关注航运业的全 新愿望。香港特区政府想要翻 新其港口设施，便于新一代的 超级货船进入，并加快其集装 箱码头的吞吐速度。香港特区 政府专为海运业和航空业拨出 了1300万美元的专项资金。此 外，香港还在等待关于如何增 强其航运枢纽地位的咨询顾问 研究结果。 香港特区行政长官梁振英表 示： “随着周边港口的效率越来 越高，香港的物流和海运业必 须进一步向价值链高端攀升。 我 们的目标 是 确 保 香 港 在 空 运、海运和陆路的多式联运中 保持竞争优势。” 实际情况是，尽管香港与中 国大陆的关系日益紧密，而与 亚洲其它地区的关系却较为薄 弱。从整个亚洲地区来看，香港 在经贸发展举措方面多少有点 缺乏远见。 Kerry Logistics Network董事 会主席George Yeo表示： “香港

特区与中国大陆的关系非常深 厚…而香港与东南亚的关系却 较为薄弱。” 香港位于中国大陆和亚洲其 它国家，特别是东南亚国家联 盟（简称“东盟”，ASEAN）的 新兴市场之间，拥有得天独厚 的地理优势，具备在这方面大 展宏图的条件，不过，要真正做 到这一点，可能不能再依 赖以 往的定位策略。

成本，香港会成为更具吸引力 的亚洲航运枢纽。 不过，George Yeo表示，除了 政策之外，还需要其它方面的 支持。香港需要更多专门研究 东盟及香港与东盟关系的大学 院系、会议和智囊团。 Yeo表示： “这需要付出经年 累月的巨大努力，不过最终 我 们能够获得丰硕的收益。” 要想从船运业取得丰硕的收

亚洲内部贸易发展迅猛，增速之 快超过世界任何地区 在2015年实现东盟经济共同 体之前的未来几年中，香港将 力争增进与亚洲国家（不包括 中国大陆）的关系。明年年初， 香港将与东盟协商自由贸易协 定，而中国大陆、韩国和日本早 就已经与东盟签订了这一自由 贸易协定。 就其内部条件而言，香港在 物流和融资方面均有非常完善 的基础设 施。挑战在于：如何 将两者结合起来，提供更加出 类拔萃的服务。通过为本地区 的行业提供更多融资服务，同 时可能会通过削减费用来降低

益，必然要经过漫长的等待。此 次在港举办的会议，气氛非常 悲观，演讲嘉宾接二连三地否 定航运业可能快速恢复盈利的 想法，尤其对于集装箱运输业 来说更是如此。对于已经困扰 行业数年之久的供需不平衡问 题，大家都认为该问题的解决 还需要假以时日，绝不可能一 蹴而就。 SeaIntel Maritime Analysis 首席运营官Alan Murphy介绍 说： “（需求）较去年相比已经 有所回升，不过回升幅度非常 小。”在供应方面，情况也好不

到哪里去。市场中的生产能力 过剩问题已经存在了三年多的 时间，新的18,000标准箱船舶 的订单数量非常多，年增长速 度为8%。 M u r p h y 表 示：“目前 的 情 况 是 需 求 不足却又供 应 能 力 过剩。” 亚洲内部贸易发展迅猛，增 速之快超过世界任何地区，因 此有可能是解决该问题的唯一 希望。 而香港正是想在这一贸易领 域发挥更大的作用。 香港已经是船运业的主要中 心。它的优势在于，不仅港口规 模大、运营效率高，而且可以通 过其资本市场筹措数量可观的 资金。 巴克 莱 银 行 ( B a r c l a y s ) 本 地 交 通研 究分析 师 J o n a t h a n W i n d h a m 介 绍 说，港 交 所 管 理 的 航 运 股 票占全 球 航 运 股 票 总 市 值 的 1 3 % 左 右。其 中 一 半以 上 的 资本是 在 亚 洲 地 区 。上 海 证 券 交 易所 和 东 京 证券 交 易所 管 理 的 航 运 股 票 分 别占全 球 航 运 股 票总市值 的14%和 9 %。而 欧 洲 各大 证 券交 易所 管 理 的 航 运 股 票 合 计占全 球 航 运 股 票总市值 的 21%。 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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书籍 ■ ■ ■

垃圾回收利用 Paul French简要介绍了一系列关于废物回收利用的书籍 废品中淘宝，商机无限

正 如人们 热衷于讨论船上运 的是什么东西一样，这段时间 有个话题的热度持续升温。就 在几年前，有大量书籍在探讨 日常用品的最终去向— 例如 《一件T恤的旅程》(The Travels of a T-Shirt)。不过，那些不太 引人 注 意 的 物品的 情 况 如 何 呢？Adam Minter的著作《垃圾 场星球：游走在市场规模达数 十亿美元的垃圾贸易业之间》 (Junkyard Planet: Travels in the Billion Dollar Trash Trade)为 读 者 奉 献 垃 圾 王国的 奇妙之 旅。Minter是一名目前在上海 工作的新闻记者（来自于美国 明尼阿波里斯市一个以废品经 销为业的家庭），他经过考察发 现，中国在制造大量废品的同 时，还用船从国外进口废品， 用作分类拣选并且很有可能加 以回收利用。废物利用的可能 性范围之大令人吃惊—废报纸 从利物浦运到中国后，经过回 收加工就变成了复印纸；破旧 电脑、破碎的手机还有各种各 样的电子设备残片从欧洲和美 国源源不断运到中国，经过剥 离分拣后，其中极少量的稀土 和贵重金属都会被提炼出来。

数以百万计的废旧产品成就了 这样一个巨大的商机。 当然，在一定程度上，Minter 的《垃圾场星球：游走在市场规 模达数十亿美元的垃圾贸易业 之间》这部书也帮助船东们解决 了另一个问题—以往，满载中 国制造商品的集装箱船抵达利 物浦之后，往往都是空载而回， 从经济角度来说极不合算。回 程前装满英国西北部的废品至 少有利可图；同样，那些满载货 物的集装箱船抵达美国长滩之 后，其中一些船可以装载过时的 戴尔旧便携式电脑返回！当然，

的全球背景和价值》(Recycling Indian Clothing: Global Contexts of Reuse and Value ) 这本书的初衷 是对服装回收利用情况进行学 术研究，不过其中的内容一点也 不晦涩枯燥。除了介绍西方慈善 募捐的衣物被用集装箱船运到 印度之外，她还谈到经销商如 何将美轮美奂的废弃绸制莎丽 婚服收集起来，用船运往欧洲 后，被制成价格不菲的靠垫套。 您真的不可能总能知道集装箱 里到底装的是什么。在Catherine Alexander和Joshua Reno的著作 《回收利用的经济学：材料、

废品公司正在想方设法满足中国 对废品的巨大需求 在有些地方对废品的需求甚至 达到饥渴的程度，这意味着曼彻 斯特的井盖不翼而飞，堪萨斯的 儿童秋千和多伦多的铁轨也难 逃同样的命运，这都怪这些地方 的废品公司想方设法满足中国 对废品的巨大需求。 中国并非是可以将废品转变 为利润的唯一地方。Lucy Norris 写《回收印度衣物：回收利用

价值和社会关系的全球变迁》 (Economies of Recycling: The Global Transformation of Materials, Values and Social Relations)中，更 侧重介绍这一行的全球化特性 和南北之间的废物流动情况。 所以可以说，船舶源源不断 将这些破碎的电子产品和过期 报纸运往中国，将从印度运来 的旧衣服制成迷人的靠垫套。

回收再 利 用 产业 实 际 上已 经 全球化，依靠船运和集装箱运 输实现经济可行，从而获得利 润。并且，仿佛是证明万 事万 物都要遵循整体的自然规律一 样，最终这些船舶也难逃被拆 卸、报 废、解体和回收利用的 宿命。Roland Buerk的著作《拆 船：超级油轮和运货船在孟加 拉国的 海滩 上 是如 何 拆 卸 报 废的？》(Breaking Ships: How Supertankers and Cargo Ships Are Dismantled on the Beaches of Bangladesh) 介绍的就是这 一过程。当欧洲实施新的劳动 法和环境标准之后，拆船业及 其相关的环境公害搬到了监管 要求较低的地区，例如孟加拉 国沿海的吉大港(Chittagong)。 Buerk是BBC新闻记者，他全程 跟踪了拆船的全过程，从船只 运达，到逐步 解体，再到拣选 巨型船只上所有可用的可回收 物、可出售物品和可重复利用 的所有物品。最后，最好卖的物 件被拿到国际回收利用市场上 销售— 他们如何将这些物品 从吉大港运过来？当然靠的是 用船 运输集装箱。因此，循环 利用周而复始不断进行。 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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■ ■ ■ 意见

许多船东求助于提供高息贷款的人，这些人在 他们没有得到偿还时并不友善

船东与发薪日贷款人 Andrew Craig-Bennett质疑现在是否是卖船的好时机 我 们 这个 著名的资本密集型 和 时 常 贬 值 的 行 业，经 常 难 以获得贷款，因为银行家将钱 花在其他东西上，这些东西用 来编织梦想，并不是被睡眠包 围，而是被萧条包围。 Norton Rose的一位卓越的船 舶融资律师 Harry Theochari, 几周前在Maritime London, 发 布了一份报告。在报告中他追 踪了几乎消失的用来买船的“ 传统”银行贷款。根据Harry所 说，不幸的事实是在船舶融资 市场活跃多年的银行是欧洲银 行，他们现在受欧 元问题以及 消失的美元问题，当然还有巴 塞尔问题的困扰。 所以可怜 的 船 东们 该做什 么？ 看起来许多船东，就像大多 数普通人，正在求助于提供高 40

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利息贷款的人，这些人在他们 没有得到当初保证的金额和利 息时偿还时并不友善。 一方 面，你 可 以 在 一 个 国 家 的 船 厂订 造 一 艘 生 态型 新 船 并 得 到 该 国 的出口信 贷。 这可能是 个不错的选择，除了 生 态型 船 看 起 来 并 没有什么 美 妙 的 意 义 。很 长 一 段 时 间 John Doviak和我在英国剑桥运 输学院（Cambridge Academy of Transport）的教室前玩数字， 发现很难对于世界经济作出离 奇的假设。一位香港著名船东 公司的CEO说“我们有一直年 轻的船队，但并不是现代的”

船舶很便宜因 为融资不便宜

，我认为他有一个非常合适的 船队。简单来说，高燃料价格对 于世界经济以及运输需求是坏 事，但如果燃料价格下降，你的 生态型船比普通船的优势多不 了多少。你真的要为你的海洋 灰狗再次不能打开八宝粥的盖 子而展开一个关于速度和表现 的争论？ 另一方面，你可以求助于私 募基金并加入债券市场，买一 艘有真正发动机的船。如果你 有足够的钱去挥霍，私募基金 也不是那么的笨；至少有一位 希腊船东，他的判断里令我尊 敬，他有足够的闲钱，与一家私 募完成了交易。但是关于这些 非航运界人士的真正问题在于 他们需要的回报率只有通过资 产升值来获得。这意味着他们 要求的回报率将依赖于常规船

舶融资银行的回归。 找出明显的错误，伙计们… 这对于私募世界的大脑们来说 太多了。但是也许他们不是容 易受骗的人，与他们签约的船 东才是，因为当期望的20%的年 回报率无法实现，私募投资人 将帮助自己的公司。 或 者 我们 可以试 试债 券市 场…但是根据Harry所说，可能 在这星球上只有两家船东的债 券是投资级别的，所以这也不 是便宜的融资— 并且随之而 来的巨额法律支出，以及披露 义务，对于船东们来说并不是 熟悉的事。 那怎么办？如果你相信石油 峰值，买一艘带有出口信贷的 生态船舶。如果你不相信，并且 你坚信你可以打败私募投资人 需要的回报率，那么与他们合 作，我只能祝你好运，你需要这 份运气。 如果你自己有钱而且并没有 计划利用，就保持这样吧。船 很便宜，但是融资并不便宜。 凡夫俗子们应该等待银行回 来。他们总是这么做。

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恭喜你—你至少现在还活着 Bei Hong回顾如何度过严峻的一年，并提醒我们目前还没有完全走出低谷 秋天游人如织，而今来自欧洲 的游客现已返乡，纷纷回家为 感 恩节 和 圣 诞 节 前 派 对做准 备。一年即将走到尽头，白天也 越来越短，是时候进行一下年 终总结了。今 年你过得怎样？ 作为一名天生的悲观主义者， 我对今年没有太多的期望，当 你听到某位受人尊敬的航运前 辈将2013年描述为“悲惨的一 年”时，看上去我的想法一点没 错。今年，船东继续致力于为全 球商品的运输提供更好、更清 洁、更规范的运输服务，但他们 又白忙了一年。 让我们 来祝贺那 些在 这 残 酷的一年中存活下来的公司。 现在的关键是要顺利度过复苏 期。当价值提高时，如果 银行 能或多或少地全身而退，而不 损失投资组合的其余部分，毫

无疑问银行很少会最终决定到 此为止并强制进行出售。请向 那些利用这次经济衰退在市场 低谷重新投资的人们致以更高 的掌声，貌似他们在今年头几 个月经过了一段时间的深思熟 虑。这是基于近期反弹做出的

年底，航运公司拥有了它的反面 角色，私募股权基金。在抱怨行 业缺乏资金的同时，大量涌入的 现金被视为阻碍复苏的潜在威 胁，或至少会将2014年出现的任 何转机扼杀在萌芽状态。原因 在于所有这些新资金不会被送

航运公司拥有了它的反面角色， 私募股权基金 决策，但请始终提防“死猫反 弹”，市场在2014年第一季度表 现惨淡的几率似乎仍然很大， 尤其是干散货市场。 无论是关于环保船的利弊、 减速运行的需要、以及船队再 次加速时所导致的运力大幅增 长，你总是会看到许多坏消息。

到举步维艰的船东手中（某些 船东仍然需要为之前预订的昂 贵船舶支付造船费用），而是用 于建造大量新船。你不能弄错 逻辑—不愿割肉的银行家令二 手市场的价值虚高，从而让环保 船建造项目能够正常运转并导 致石油价格居高不下，他们的确

会具有一定的竞争优势。但是， 这一切是否意味着，当我们认为 我们可能已经以自己的方式消 化该行业在经济繁荣时期接到 的大量订单时，我们将承受产能 过剩的压力。也许吧。被挤出市 场的第一批船将是2009年前订 购的成本高昂的船只，它们可能 无法像现在的船只一样节省燃 油成本。 因此，也许在2016年底，我将 告诉大家，那些很快撤离市场 的愤怒的投资者会突然发现， 在经济低迷时期，航运市场将 变得非常缺乏流动性，但是如 果你坚信投资这一领域是正确 的，你将获得丰厚的回报。在“ 不管资产，只看费用”心理的驱 使下，也许基金经理早已远去， 但是至少德国人会坚守住这来 之不易的集装箱船市场。 SINOSHIP 2013年冬季刊

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