SinoShip 2016

2016

www.splash247.com

China’s port boom

Have the wheels fallen off ?

■ ■ ■ CONTENTS

■ ■ ■ Regulars 3 Editor’s Comment 5 Economy 7 Lines

Cutting capacity makes sense, but with the market split 37% China, 35% South Korea and 19% Japan it’s a game of chicken for who cuts first and most —Dr Martin Stopford, president, Clarksons Research

9 Yards

9

13 Offshore 15 Law 17 Commodities

■ ■ ■ Features

19

19 One Belt, One Road

One Belt, One Road has the potential to help the world to get rid of its current crises —Khalid Hashim, managing director, Precious Shipping

23 Ports

■ ■ ■ Reviews 26 Books

■ ■ ■ Opinions

Surplus capacity at Chinese ports could reach almost 100m teu in 2030

2 7 Opinion

— Olaf Merk from the OECD

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UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com EDITOR Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Colin Shek HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI David Green CONTRIBUTORS Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh, Andrew Craig-Bennett PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao All editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details.

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Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2016 www.asiashippingmedia.com Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com.

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Dry bulk gamble IS NOW A good time to snap up cheap secondhand dry bulk tonnage? Speaking with a host of well-known names, my reckoning is the answer to the above is yes, albeit you’ve got to be very brave.

“Bulker prices are at historic lows on an inflation adjusted basis, but fleet growth in recent years has outstripped cargo demand growth hence the low rates. We need to see either or both of a pick up in scrapping or an increase in cargo demand to lift equity returns in the dry bulk sector. We also need low newbuilding ordering,” says James Kidwell, chief executive of Braemar Shipping Services.

“Of course ships look ‘cheap’ compared to a few years ago and values did even tick up a bit earlier this year which can now probably be looked at as the bottom, but it’s plateaued since then and with earnings remaining horrific, there is not a lot of incentive to leap in,” says Tim Huxley from Hong Kong’s Mandarin Shipping.

Nevertheless, owners have leapt in to snap up huge amounts of tonnage this year.

Statistics provided by online pricing vehicle VesselsValue.com show there’s been $3.51bn of action in the dry bulk S&P markets in the first eight months, similar to the $3.66bn concluded in the same period of 2015.

Paul Slater, chairman of global financial consulting firm First International Corporation, agrees with Huxley’s opinions.

“I cannot see why anyone would want to buy bulk carriers today even at a deep discount to previous values. The charter income on most routes and cargoes does not even cover operating costs, let alone any debt interest,” Slater says.

Slater believes that the oversupply of ships will continue or even grow through this decade and into the first half of the next one, amid the reduced consumption of imported goods in the US and China showing little or no growth.

Khalid Hashim, managing director of Thailand’s Precious Shipping, reckons that investors could take advantages of the current low bulker prices to make a quick profit.

“One reason why you should be buying secondhand ships is the discount that you

are getting compared to newbuild prices and all the associated angst of ordering new ships with the attendant increase in overall supply, so long as the gap between the depreciated price of a newbuild as compared to the actual market price of a secondhand fiveyear-old is materially positive,” Hashim says.

According to a report by Clarksons Platou, values of benchmark five-year-old and newbuilding handysize bulk carriers have reduced by about 2% and 5% since the start of the year to $9.3m and $19.5m respectively, and they appear to have stabilised. The significant gap between newbuilding and secondhand prices continues to discourage new ship ordering activity, which should benefit freight market fundamentals in the future. Cancelled or abandoned newbuildings especially from Chinese shipyards are occasionally marketed for sale by shipbuilders at significant discounts.

“Not only is it a good time for the cash rich to buy secondhand ships,” Martin Rowe, managing director of Clarksons Platou Asia, tells me, “but, it’s also probably a good time for those with only minimal cash reserves to take the plunge. There’s not much point in soldiering on with older vessels less suited to the task of the current market – better to pick up relatively modern vessels that can trade out the next couple of cycles and give a steadier longer term investment. The shipowner should still be in it to win it not just satisfied at still clinging on to life.

“So time to pick up the dice and give them another roll,” the broker concludes.

Jason Jiang Editor Jason@asiashippingmedia.com SINOSHIP 2016

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ECONOMY ■ ■ ■

Exporters are hurting China’s trade with just about everyone is off, writes Paul French

AMID THE SEEMING chaos and news grabbing headlines of the American presidential election cycle and Brexit in Europe, China has rather slipped from the economic headlines. That’s probably because, for the first time in a long time, China’s economy is actually quite boring and steady. We know the larger picture well by now, and it was borne out by the first half of the year’s economic figures from Beijing - the successful transition from a high-speed, heavy industry based economy to a consumer and servicesbased economy.

Still, this does mean China is an economy of two halves and, depending on which half you’re involved with, determines how happy or otherwise you are. If you’re dealing with the services, consumption or retail side of China then it’s pretty much all good news - services and consumption remain robust and are now the largest part of the economy. In the first half of this year, final consumption contributed

about 73% of China’s GDP growth and real retail sales rose by almost 10%. Big jumps, as predicted, in ecommerce and B2C sales, although good oldfashioned bricks-and-mortar retail is holding up well too.

However, the industrial part of the economy is slowing. The government is doing its best to make sure this isn’t all that painful for ordinary workers – revised rules on state-owned enterprises and average monthly income for the migrant workers, who fill most of industrial jobs, was up 7% in

June 2016. But, if you import or export, then things are not so great. June’s exports from China were down fully 4.8% (in dollar terms) after declines of 4.1% and 1.8% respectively in May and April. Imports into China were even worse – down 8.4% in June. China’s trade surplus narrowed to $48.11bn from $49.98bn.

China’s trade with just about everyone is off – the EU, the US, the ASEAN nations of Southeast Asia. Slumping demand everywhere for Chinese made goods it seems. However, it is also

Slow and steady – China’s first half GDP growth rates Year first half GDP growth % H12011 10.1 H12012

7.9 H12013 7.7 H12014 7.4 H12015 7.0 H12016 6.7 Source: CEIC Beijing

important to remember that exchange rates have changed affecting export numbers in dollar terms – the renminbi was down 8% in June from a year earlier. Conversely, the weaker import rates can be partly explained by falling commodity rates (metals, energy and fuels, etc), but reduced production of course means reduced demand for necessary inputs.

What has got a lot of analysts and others annoyed is China’s reaction to tariffs on its steel dumping. Beijing tends to take a tit-for-tat approach to tariffs and the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing has imposed anti-dumping duties on steel imports from Japan, South Korea and the European Union. This is clearly tit-for-tat and does not represent China’s steel producers in their relations with the rest of the world.

It is to be hoped that more serious trade negotiations between Beijing and the rest of the world will be a feature of the rest of 2016.

SINOSHIP 2016

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LINES ■ ■ ■

As the dust settles on shipping’s largest merger, it appears that the Cosco brand, the older of the two state-run maritime giants, has trumped China Shipping for primacy. SinoShip breaks down China Cosco Shipping Corporation (Coscocs), sector by sector.

China Shipping Container Lines has been renamed Cosco Shipping Development and is now a financial leasing platform. Cosco Pacific has changed its name to Cosco Shipping Ports, while China Shipping Development is now Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation. The newly merged shipping giant has also created its container shipping unit, China Lines, and bulk shipping unit Cosco Shipping Bulk, headquartered in

Shanghai and Guangzhou respectively. Cosco Shipping Limited (Coscol) is the group’s heavylift/multipurpose and car carrying division while Cosco Shipbuilding Industry has swallowed up all shipbuilding and ship repair assets including Cosco Shipyard, China Shipping Industry, NACKS and DACKS. It is a sweeping, massive merger, concluded faster than many thought possible. However, difficulties of the process are evident. In announcing it was RMB7.2bn ($1.08bn) in the red for the first six months, China Cosco Holdings, the group’s flagship listing, racked up the largest interim net loss of a mainlandlisted company for the last decade.

Other mergers are taking longer to formalise. Beijing initiated the takeover by China Merchants of Sinotrans & CSC last year, but this process is set to take at least another two years. It’s worth recalling

that the merger between Sinotrans and CSC has been a tumultuous one, not really bedded down by the time logistics giant Sinotrans was forced upon Sinotrans & CSC last year.

This latest merger is unlikely to be completed until the end of 2018, sources tell SinoShip.

Chinese owner Winning Shipping has been the leading buyer of capesize bulkers for 2016. While many owners have shied away from buying this depressed sector of the dry bulk scene, the Singapore-based outfit has been very aggressive, snapping up many bargains.

Winning has mainly focused in recent years in transporting commodities from West Africa to China.

Hong Kong handy specialist Taylor Maritime has revealed plans for the rapid expansion of its fleet. Founded in 2014, Taylor Maritime has grown its fleet of Japanese-built handsize bulkers to nine ships in under two years. Taylor Maritime was founded by Edward Buttery, son of Chris Buttery, who established Pacific Basin and latterly Epic Gas. By the end of 2017, the plan at Taylor Maritime is to have up to 20 vessels, with enough funds to buy another ten.

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

More swingeing cuts to come China will slash much more shipbuilding capacity before the end of the decade, writes Sam Chambers SINCE LEHMAN BROTHERS’ collapse eight years ago China has been the country among the big three shipbuilding nations of east Asia to have slashed yard capacity the most. With Beijing tinkering in recent months with its so-called White List of approved yards, analysts and our readers expect China to continue to cut more capacity than rivals South Korea and Japan through to the end of the decade.

Shipyard excess capacity is extraordinary in scale, says one of the world’s best known shipping analysts. Dr Martin Stopford, president of Clarksons Research, tells Maritime CEO: “Shipbuilding output of around 103m dwt in 2016 is at least 30% above the underlying demand for new ships.”

With China’s imports hardly growing; the world economy in a trough; and the offshore market in deep trouble, Stopford says current output could only be sustained by “heroic price cutting”.

“Cutting capacity makes sense,” he reckons, “but with the market split 37% China, 35% South Korea and 19% Japan it’s a game of chicken for who cuts first and most.”

The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of September 2016, according to Clarksons Research. The UK firm defines a yard ‘active’ if it has at least one vessel (1,000+ gt) on order, with ‘inactive’ builders with no orderbook suggestive of highly vulnerable capacity.

30%

Shipbuilding output of around 103m dwt in 2016 is at least 30% above the underlying demand for new ships according to Clarksons Research

Alongside this drop in the number of active yards, newbuild output has fallen and this year Clarkson Research projects the figure will stand 34% below its 2010 peak in cgt terms.

From 2005, the number of active Chinese yards grew rapidly, increasing 117% to a peak of 382 yards in 2009.

Many of the new yards specialised in the bulk carrier sector; Chinese builders accounted for half of bulker orders during this period. Since then, the number of active Chinese yards has declined by 63%, with almost half of these closures accounted for by ‘small’ yards that had delivered two ships or fewer. There were just 140 active Chinese yards at the start of September 2016, or around 35% of all active yards globally.

A report from Canada’s Teekay Corporation published earlier this month sees global shipbuilding capacity falling by 20-30% over the next five years.

The tanker giant predicted many smaller yards will fold,

larger ones will reduce capacity and there will be plenty of shipbuilding consolidation in the coming years.

“For global shipping markets, a reduction in shipyard capacity should be seen as a positive as it reduces the risk of a perpetually over-supplied market. In the short-term there could be further benefits, as the potential failure of certain shipyards could lead to order cancellations and therefore reduced fleet growth. This would be a welcome relief for those shipping sectors currently drowning in a sea of oversupply,” the listed company noted.

Teekay statistics show that just 7.2m cgt of new orders were placed in the first eight months, by far the lowest year for new orders since at least the early 1990s.

Dr Adam Kent, director of UK-based markets forecaster Maritime Strategies International (MSI), warns that a shuttered yard is not necessarily a closed yard.

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

Even if yards are wound down or are mothballed the general infrastructure tends to remain in place, Kent suggests.

“This paves the way for shipping market cycles to become shorter with lower peaks, as shipyard capacity no longer presents a limiting factor to timely provision of new supply,” Kent predicts.

Esben Poulsson, the new chairman of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), believes excess shipbuilding capacity will not last forever, but that the shipping cycles of previous decades are gone forever.

Tobias Koenig from Lexington Maritime says overcapacity is the new normal for shipping.

“The markets are completely overbuilt and the need to scrap rate is around 50% of the fleet in most sectors,” he says, adding: “There will always be a reason for ordering new vessels, which

will keep up overcapacity and the markets at fairly depressed levels.”

Basil Karatzsas, a Greek ship finance expert based in New York, takes issue with Kent’s point of view.

“We all know from basic economics that excess capacity cannot remain the permanent market state; eventually some yards will have to shut down or eliminate some of the excess capacity,” he argues, suggesting that the contraction in yards will most keenly be felt in China.

“When there is effectively nil financing for the average shipowner, excess shipbuilding

capacity has little material consequence,” Karatzsas maintains.

It’s not just shipyard size, it’s also their efficiency that shipowners need to take into account. Andrew Craig-Bennett, lead opinion writer for this magazine, observes that the manhours needed to build a handysize bulk carrier have been reduced by roughly three quarters during his lifetime.

“There is no practical constraint on shipbuilding capacity at all,” Craig-Bennett believes.

“Modern shipyards,” he says, “can flex their own capacity by subcontracting fit out, subcontracting blocks and practically

Cutting capacity makes sense, but with the market split 37% China, 35% South Korea and 19% Japan it’s a game of chicken for who cuts first and most

anything else.”

The only practical constraint on ship supply, Craig-Bennett observes, is the supply of main engines – the only large component of a modern ship that is hand-built by experts.

With contracting for ship orders in the year to date at the lowest level seen for 20 years, many more yards with small orderbooks are going to have to close their gates in the coming months.

In an ongoing poll carried on our sister title, Splash, China does look like it will continue to see the largest contraction of yards, which is in line with Beijing’s bid to cut out out industrial overcapacity and inefficiencies in the Chinese economy. Roughly half of the 300 respondents to date feel China will see a greater contraction in shipbuilding capacity by 2020 in percentage terms than neighbours South Korea and Japan.

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OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■

Cash is king Boardrooms of OSV operators need to be prepared to weather the storm for another five years, writes Andre Wheeler

MY LATEST ROUND of advisory services to private equity and fund managers looking at investment opportunities in the OSV sector suggests that the headwinds facing the sector have become gale force in nature. A few months ago, debate was around the green shoot opportunities that were emerging for vessel owners and operators and actions taken to improve liquidity. This debate is now focused on the ‘gale force wind’ that is making sea conditions not just choppy, but unsafe. Here I am talking of the principle of cash in hand and how best to manage it.

What has happened in the market, particularly within Southeast Asia, that underpins this change? The mega trends in the region are: ● Utilisation rates are down – we are seeing that rates are down to 50% in the AHTS and PSV sector, with some

companies reporting utilisation down to as low as 23%. ● Charter day rates are down, the average being 40% down on rates achieved in 2014. ● The definition of ‘old’ vessel has changed from that being 20 years plus to now being only 15 years. ● Oversupply of vessels, with 476 units on order of which 200 are speculative. ● 11% of the total fleet has been laid up. ● Smaller vessels (below 80 bollard pull in the AHTS segment and below 3,200 dwt) are mostly being impacted.

Rig ratios are down, with the global OSV fleet growing in the period 2015/16 by 18%, increasing the vessel to rig ration by approximately 35%. ● Rig usage, the primary driver in the sector, is down 20% globally and 38% down in Southeast Asia. ● Offshore projects E&P has been trimmed such that

there has been a 15% reduction in offshore costs. ● Prices for secondhand vessels have fallen 40%.

Suggesting the depth to which the OSV market has sunk is the emergence of what I call nationalistic tendencies.

For example, Malaysia and Indonesia, two growth markets, are enforcing and introducing strict cabotage regulations. The Middle East region has embarked on the same process, making it very difficult for international operator prospects.

With this, there has been a review of asset values, particularly with regard to debt levels.

A number of companies have reviewed their valuations as they have tried to restructure debt and payment terms. This has been a review of the fleet, particularly with regards to age and size, and with new vessels sales prices offering discounts

of up to 30%, we have seen value wiped off the balance sheet.

With falling markets and prices of secondhand vessels, companies can no longer rely on asset sales to boost cash reserves. They will have to resort to other activities such as cutting operating expense, particularly by looking at systems and supply chains. Another option is to lock into longer contract terms at lower margins to generate cash i.e. the old fashioned approach of sacrificing margin for revenue that is bankable.

With the current gale and storm conditions expected to last until 2018, adherence to the principle of ‘cash is king’ will pervade the OSV sector. This focus will dominate boardroom discussion for the next five years, and with low utilisation and charter rates in all markets, we can expect to see an increase in distressed asset sales.

SINOSHIP 2016

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LAW ■ ■ ■

Solomon’s justice in maritime China Veteran Shanghai lawyer Peter Murray kicks off a regular column for SinoShip

THE MARITIME COURT structure of China as we know it today was first set up in 1984 and over the relatively short period since then, the ten main maritime courts have established a further 39 branch courts up and down the coast and the Yangtze, surely the largest maritime court structure worldwide. Together they determine matters according to the Chinese Maritime Code of 1993.

Leaving aside the sheer number of cases (there were upwards of 16,000 filed in 2015), one useful way to look critically at the quality of justice being dispensed by China’s maritime courts is to read the judgments both at first instance and on appeal to the local High Court or occasionally on petition to the Supreme Court in Beijing.

Several of the 10 main courts maintain their own websites; a recent hearing of a salvage case by the Supreme Court in Beijing

was televised.

One decision worth reviewing as an example was a cargo claim heard in the Shanghai Maritime Court, which went on appeal to Shanghai’s High Court, whose decision was handed down on November 12 last year. In translation, the combined judgments run to almost 100 pages.

There were a number of parties to the dispute including some well known names: Zurich General Insurance (China), Ping An and Murmansk Shipping Co. The claim arose from damage to a shipment of crawler cranes (built and shipped by Zoom Lion) onboard the Yuriy Arshenevskiy, a roro breakbulker, en route from Tianjin and Shanghai bound for Mundra and Mumbai.

Trouble began when the vessel encountered Typhoon Muifa shortly after leaving Shanghai.

Once landed in India, the cargo

was found to be more or less a total loss and was shipped back to Shanghai where it was sold as scrap. The cause of the cargo damage was put down to a mixture of improper lashing and the effects of the typhoon, exacerbated by negligence in the navigation of the vessel.

Both maritime courts decided on the facts that the improper lashing was 20% to blame for the loss, the level at which the carrier had to compensate the cargo interests. The carrier was exempt in the normal way from the remaining 80% liability caused by the combination of the excepted perils of typhoon and negligence in navigation.

The principles being applied under the Chinese Maritime Code in this case were very much the same as those that would be applied under English law. Applying a ratio of blame to the loss might raise a question among maritime lawyers

generally: how can a court decide that improper lashing contributed only 20% to the damage? Should it not be black and white: fully to blame or not?

The fact is that most cargo claims are settled and very often the level of settlement is based on an assessment of the risk that the owners will be found liable. That process of finding a reasonable settlement is not very different from the approach taken by the judges in this case.

A touch of Solomon’s justice.

A final point to note is that the Murmansk Shipping Co as the so-called ‘actual carrier’ had no liability. That rested with the last in the charter chain, a Shanghai-based company. There is one certainty: the maritime courts in China will be dealing with an increasing number of complex and novel disputes and at times evolving new ways to determine them.

SINOSHIP 2016

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COMMODITIES ■ ■ ■

China in a more positive light Jeffrey Landsberg from Commodore Research suggests people are getting it wrong when debating China’s steel tactics BACK IN LATE July, Chinese iron ore miners began calling for an anti-dumping investigation into iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil. Overall, it has been widely accepted that this has been a tit for tat response to China receiving intense criticism regarding steel exports. We agree with such a view, and also believe that China’s decision to turn the focus to iron ore exports has been in some ways a necessary strategy to remind the world just how much it needs China and also needs to accept China.

While China’s steel exports have certainly flooded the market since the start of 2014, it remains very significant to recognise just how much the market changed starting in 2014 and that there has been legitimate economic reasons for China producing large amounts of steel and then exporting very large quantities. Prior to 2014, this decade had seen steel prices and iron ore prices stay closely in line with each other.

The largest difference in price change came in 2011, during which time Chinese steel prices fell by approximately 6% while global iron ore prices fell by approximately 19% - which worked out to a net difference of 13 percentage points. In addition, each year prior to 2014, on average, saw a difference in price movement of only 8%.

However, 2014 is when everything changed. Chinese steel prices fell in 2014 by approximately 14% but global iron ore prices fell by approximately 55%. 2014 marked a year when Chinese steel margins saw significant support, and as we stressed often in the past, China as a whole was benefitting from the collapse in global

iron ore prices. While Chinese economic growth was starting to slow considerably in 2014, China’s steel output still continued to surge and set a record that has yet to be broken.

Overall, the combination of steel margins receiving tremendous support and China’s economic growth slowing (which includes China’s steel consumption growth slowing) led to Chinese steel exports suddenly jumping in 2014.

Just as 2014 saw a very drastic change in the difference between steel and iron ore price movement, it also saw a very drastic change in Chinese steel exports. Prior to 2014, this decade had seen China’s steel exports increase every year by basically the same amount each year. However, in 2014 China’s steel exports jumped year-on-year by 31.5m tons. This surge was unprecedented and came partially from Chinese steel margins improving dramatically.

In recent weeks, we have read a great deal of commentary comparing and contrasting China’s steel exports with Australian and Brazilian iron ore exports, with many opining that China’s robust steel exports have been a form of dumping while robust global iron ore exports have been legitimate (we agree that the increase in iron ore exports has been legitimate and is not worthy of an anti-dumping investigation). However, analysis of 2014 shows that China has had very legitimate economic reasons to drastically increase steel exports starting in 2014.

2015 also saw Chinese steel prices fare better than global iron ore prices (steel prices fell by about 35% in 2014 while iron ore prices fell by about 38%) which allowed the environment of robust steel exports to continue. In 2016, global iron ore prices through the first half of the year finally fared better than Chinese steel prices, but

the first five months of this year did see Chinese steel prices rise by about 31% while global iron ore prices increased by only 14%, which further helps point to why China’s steel mills recently have continued to produce (and then export) a robust amount of steel.

Going forward, we anticipate that Chinese steel prices will fare better than global iron ore prices during the second half of this year and that Chinese steel exports (and overall Chinese steel production) will remain strong this year.

Chinese iron ore imports are also likely to stay robust. China is faring better than much of the rest of the world, and the global economy continues to need China to prosper. What has changed recently, though, is that the focus has turned away from China’s robust steel exports and instead to global commodity producers - in this case Australian and Brazilian iron ore miners.

SINOSHIP 2016

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FEATURE ■ ■ ■

One Belt, One Road explained Khalid Hashim from Precious Shipping on China’s massive intercontinental infrastructure plans

A

Google search for One Belt, One Road (OBOR) gives you about 15,700,000 results. Total spending on OBOR, in those same articles, varies from a low figure of $1.2trn to a high figure of $21trn. This concept currently covers some 65 countries in three continents encompassing 4.4bn people. The projected investment for OBOR at $1.4trn is about 12 times larger than the Marshall Plan, which was about $120bn in today’s value. And to top it all, there are literally hundreds of companies established in Hong Kong with similar names. And that is the hype generated by OBOR. So what exactly is OBOR? It is a conceptual plan, a vision for greater cooperation, inclusiveness and higher growth among several countries put up by Chinese President, Xi Jinping in late 2013 with an eye on the old historical Silk Road but very much focusing on the current geopolitical tensions in our unipolar world, with the

sole hyperpower, the USA involved in many wars/skirmishes mainly in the Middle East, Africa and Afghanistan. OBOR is based on ‘win-win’ cooperation and overcomes geopolitical confrontations that threaten to bring the world close to war. It has the potential to help the world to get rid of its current crises.

It is a vision for greater cooperation, inclusiveness and higher growth In terms of fund raising, spending and activity in OBOR countries, so far the following has been accomplished. ● The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been set up and capital funds of $40bn have been injected. The

financial firepower of the multilateral AIIB will likely be much larger than the initial capital commitment of $100bn from its 57 member countries. ● The Silk Road Fund has been set up and is expected to have a corpus of $40bn. ● The BRICS’s New Development Bank (NDB), initially committing $100bn. ● The New Development Bank, which is the funding source for the BRICS countries has $100bn allocated. ● China Development Bank has already committed to invest $900bn in OBOR projects. ● Hong Kong-based China Merchants Holdings International intends to invest in 10 overseas ports in Russia, West Africa and Southeast Asia in a bid to drive China’s OBOR strategy. ● PowerChina has four projects in Pakistan with a total installed capacity of 182MW, a 24MW project in Vietnam and a 60MW project in Thailand. In 2015, SINOSHIP 2016

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FEATURE ■ ■ ■ Goldwind, China’s leading wind turbine manufacturer, won supply contracts for four wind projects in Pakistan with a total installed capacity of more than 270MW. By the end of 2018, Goldwind’s total installed capacity in Pakistan will exceed 400MW, accounting for one third of the country’s capacity. ● The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor has already been translated into reality. ● Ricoh Europe has transported containers from Rotterdam via rail taking maximum 20 days to reach China without any delays. And, a train releases far less CO2 than a plane which would be the alternate means of transport. ● Chinese companies invested nearly $15bn in 2015 in countries participating in OBOR, up one-fifth from 2014. Fortynine countries along the economic corridor invested $8.2bn in China in 2015, up 25%. ● Europe, gripped by economic weakness and debt, is crying out for Chinese investment. Chinese state enterprises and funds are eagerly participating, buying up ports, real estate and technology firms from Greece to the UK. China views Europe as the terminus for its OBOR project. ● China’s trade with OBOR countries has been growing at an average of 18.2% annually over the past decade and accounts for 20% of the country’s total foreign trade volume. China’s direct investments in OBOR countries increased from $240m to $9.27bn during the past decade for an annual growth of 44%. ● The first cargo train from China arrived in Tehran, Iran, in February 2016 after a 14-day journey travelling a distance of 10,399 km through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan from China’s eastern Zhejiang province. ● China’s efforts include the $46bn ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor. ● Other key initiatives include Chinese investment in Central Europe such as the China – Belarus Industrial Park, signing of 33 deals in Kazakhstan, amounting to $21.6bn covering mining, engineering, processing, transport, oil, gas etc. ● China National Electric Engineering Company is involved in the high-quality construction of Vitebsk Hydroelectric Power Plant in Belarus, an environmentally friendly source of energy. ● According to a PwC report released in February, about $250bn in projects have

been built, recently started or have been agreed on and signed in relation to the belt and road initiative. ● Gwadar deepsea port in Pakistan, operated by China Overseas Port Holdings was built by China Harbour Engineering Company. ● In Myanmar a contract has been agreed with China in 2015 to build a deepsea port at Kyaukphyu. ● A new deepsea port at Sonadia Island, Bangladesh is being constructed with Chinese involvement. ● Two projects in Sri Lanka involving China are a Colombo container terminal and new port at Hambantota. ● At the European end of the Maritime Silk Road is China’s investment in the port of Piraeus, Greece.

China’s trade with OBOR countries has been growing at an average of 18.2% annually over the past decade But the real merit of OBOR lies in its geopolitical benefits, not just for China, but for all countries in the world and not just those involved with this concept. Just to list a few of these: More than 80 officials, ambassadors and representatives of 40 Silk Road countries met at Valencia, Spain’s St. Pius V Museum to pray for peace among the route’s four major religions: Christianity, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism stressing the current appalling situation of expulsions, uprooting and refugee flows currently occurring in the Mediterranean.

OBOR will act like a dam and hold back the stream of refugees clamouring to enter the EU by bringing peace, economic development and job creation that will dove tail with the infrastructure aims of OBOR. The jobs created by CPEC would go a long way in addressing the employment concerns of the bulging youth population of

$21trn

Maximum estimate of outlay for OBOR

Pakistan, and the economic activity generated in the northern parts of the country, would bring back long lost stability and peace to terrorism hit areas.

China has long been concerned at links between Islamist militants in Central Asia and those Beijing accuses of promoting separatism in the violence-prone far western region of Xinjiang. With OBOR providing massive amounts of jobs, generating and increasing economic activity, it will bring peace and prosperity to the troubled regions in China as well as in the Central Asian Republics.

OBORs many infrastructure projects would benefit China’s poor inland regions, integrating them with the global economy and helping to mitigate China’s rapidly growing wealth gap.

China would gain credibility and influence on three continents, 65 countries and 4.4b people via OBOR. OBOR ports in Asia, Africa and Europe reduce dependence on trade passing through potentially insecure choke point of the Malacca Straits.

There are, of course, a few benefits that would be very helpful to the Chinese economy and, indirectly, a boon to dry bulk shipping, such as: ● China will utilize the ~30% idle steel mill capacity to produce steel at possibly the lowest cost in the world for the OBOR infrastructure projects. ● Coke, the other ingredient to produce steel, is in a similar oversupply/low price situation, so steel should be produced very cheaply indeed. ● Chinese cement plants have an idle capacity of ~40% allowing them to produce cheap cement for OBOR. ● Employment in the steel and cement industries in China will no longer be at risk. ● China would be able to shift their labour intensive industries away from the full employment, high labour cost, and expensive real estate of the south and the east to the west of the country where labour is plentiful, is cheap and land isn’t expensive thereby prolonging the life of labour intensive industries that would be connected with first class infrastructure to their respective export/domestic markets.

The above actions will allow the Chinese economy to smoothly transition to a services and consumption led model.

And all of the above would be achieved without having to bomb or kill anyone in a pure win-win solution.

SINOSHIP 2016

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Drastic action required Jason Jiang looks at China’s massively overbuilt ports scene

G

o back to the 1990s and a list of the top 20 container ports in the world featured a fair smattering of Japanese cities. Japan built ports aplenty towards the end of the 20th century, but like the nation’s bridges to nowhere, it soon regretted such excess.

For much of the past two decades Japanese ports have had to counter all that terminal construction with mergers of regional ports. No Japanese port has been in the top 20 boxport list this decade.

Of course, the top 20 is littered with Chinese names, and will be probably in perpetuity. Including Hong Kong, mainland China has nine of the top 20 slots in fact. China’s ports buildup has been on an unprecedented scale since 1992 when Li Ka-shing and Hutchison Port Holdings got a prized first contract on the mainland to develop Shenzhen’s Yantian port. Still,

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in Newtonian terms, what goes up, must come down: excess capacity is now very visible up and down the coastline. Quay cranes are in a raised state as the Chinese economy slows. Port mergers, like Japan, are now the way ahead.

Olaf Merk, a ports expert with the OECD, says China has around 50m teu container port capacity in surplus to actual volumes. To put that 50m figure in perspective, that’s more than the combined throughputs of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Russia.

“When looking at what is already in planning, things could get worse, with

surplus capacity to reach almost 100m teu in 2030,” Merk warns.

The main reason for this overcapacity is the combination of lower trade growth in China and competition between Chinese cities, he explains.

“Many Chinese mayors are ambitious and want to have the biggest port; this has led to a highly uncoordinated infrastructure construction frenzy, resulting in port capacity that could be effectively used during the period of double digit growth, but that becomes redundant in the current climate,” Merk explains.

The central government has called local

Phase in new capacity in line with demand rather than with politicians’ ambitions

COVER STORY ■ ■ ■

provincial government and major ports to optimise operations and capacity through integration.

Zhao Nan, research director at the Shanghai International Shipping Institute (SISI), says restructuring will carry on for years. The Yangtze River ports will also start a new round of mergers and restructuring soon, Zhao says.

Currently a series of sweeping port reorganisations are ongoing across the nation.

In 2015, the Zhejiang government started the integration of five major ports in the province including Ningbo Port, Zhoushan Port, Jiaxing Port, Taizhou Port and Wenzhou Port. The government has established a new entity named Zhejiang Port Investment Operation Group (ZPIO) to operate the ports under one platform.

The group will also be the largest port company in China – and the world – in terms

of port throughput upon completion of the restructuring. So far, Ningbo Port has completed a merger with Zhoushan Port.

Zhejiang completed overall port cargo throughput of 1.1bn tons in 2015, with Ningbo-Zhoushan accounting for 890m of the total.

Tianjin Port is currently in collaboration with Heibei Port Group, which operates a number of major ports including Tangshan Port, Huanghua Port and Qinhuangdao Port in Hebei. The two port groups have established a joint venture Bohai TianjinHebei Port Investment and Development Company to jointly invest and operate port terminals.

Tianjin is a port picked out by well known Hong Kong-based transport analyst Charles De Trenck as perhaps the most reckless when it came to expansion in the previous decade.

“It boggled my mind 15, 10, and 5 years ago,” he says.

To the south restructuring is also underway. Xiamen Port and Zhangzhou Port in Fujian, have already completed a merger in 2014, while three major ports in Guangxi, Qinzhou Port, Beihai Port and Fachenggang Port have all been restructured into Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port Group in 2013.

Currently the most complex and difficult port restructuring is in Northeast China.

Along the short coastline in the Bohai Rim, there are four major listed port companies including Dalian Port, Jinzhou Port and Yingkou Port in Liaoning and Qinhuangdao Port in Hebei.

In the first quarter of 2016, Liaoning province ranked the last in all Chinese provinces in terms of GDP growth. The economic recession of what has often been dubbed China’s rustbelt area has directly led to weak shipping demand in the region, while the ports are also competing with each other through lower prices for their own survival.

The government has proposed to establish a provincial port company to operate all the ports under one roof since 2014, however, there hasn’t been any progress yet.

“The ports in Liaoning are going through very difficult times and the malign competition among the ports is further worsening

50m

Amount of excess capacity in teu at Chinese ports according to the OECD

the situation. There are too much repeat capacities and functions in the ports, which would make the restructuring even more difficult,” says Lv Jing, a shipping economist and the dean of the Transportation Management College at Dalian Maritime University.

“The port restructurings must be based on suitable business models and pure administrative integration arranged by the government authorities is not going to work. But the cost of the business restructuring is also very high, especially for those major port assets, and the balancing the interest of each local government is also crucial, ” Lv says.

SISI’s Zhao has a few suggestions for the future port restructurings, “Firstly, the coordination between local governments should be enhanced, they could learn from the Collaborative Development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province Initiative, secondly, the coastline resources management should be improved to monitor and supervise the port capacities. Thirdly, the anti-unfair competition regulations should be strengthened.”

James Frew, from UK consultants Maritime Strategies International, reckons China has some tough choices to make when it comes to remedying its bloated ports scene.

“I don’t believe there are easy answers,” he says, citing issues of the expansion of neighhbouring Busan. The South Korean port expected to take transhipment cargo from China and actually got very little due to the huge expansion of Chinese port capacity.

“It is further complicated by the different provincial governments in China backing their own ports,” Frew observes. “Shandong province, for instance, is not going to accept a rationalisation of Qingdao’s capacity because Tianjin is gaining market share.”

Two remedies according to Merk from the OECD would be to slow down expansion plans and increase coordination between ports.

Phase in new capacity in line with demand rather than with politicians’ ambitions, Merk urges.

As well as Beijing looking to Japan as to how to combat overcapacity, the mandarins in the Chinese capital could do worse than looking at South Korea, Merk says, where a national ports policy sets out the specialisations of each port in the Korean port system.

Whatever is decided, it appears Chinese port construction has plateaued.

SINOSHIP 2016

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BOOKS ■ ■ ■

Diplomatic bubble Paul French runs through the contentious issue of who owns what in the South China Sea

THE JULY RULING by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague denied China's sweeping claims in the strategic seaway and found in favour of the Philippines. Immediately there was an outpouring of nationalist fury across China and Beijing dismissed the independent court’s decision.

Clearly the South China Sea issue isn’t going to go away anytime soon.

Though it has been simmering for a long time it is perhaps worthwhile to catch up on a little background reading on the dispute. Bill Hayton’s The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia is a good starting point; though a few years old now it is still relevant.

Hayton, a BBC journalist, nicely précises the complexity and absurdity of the South China Sea dispute - which include overlapping claims by Brunei, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and

Vietnam. He also shows how the sea route is vital to the longterm interests of all these countries and everyone on either end of the route too. Hayton shows that the South China Sea is a diplomatic nightmare, and even more so after the Hague ruling, where America perhaps sees China at its most bombastic while China sees America at its most duplicitous (in the belief that America is behind the court’s ruling in favour of its long time ally, Manila). Sadly ‘intractable’ is a word that keeps cropping up around this subject.

The South China Sea: A Crucible of Regional Cooperation or ConflictMaking Sovereignty Claims? is an edited collection of essays brought together by C.J. Jenner and Tran Troung Thuy.

They identify the importance of the waterway right at the start - more than half of global shipping transits the South China Sea, which also holds significant reserves of oil, gas and minerals as well as some of the largest fisheries in the world. Of course all debates, discussions and international rulings are subject to those economic imperatives. This volume is more scholarly than Bill Hayton’s book and more useful for those looking to understand the legal complexities and ramifications of the messy business of adjudicating the South China Sea. And, finally, we cannot ignore the possibility that the South China Sea could become a zone of conflict quite easily. Richard Javad Heydarian, author of Asia’s New Battlefield:

More than half of global shipping transits the South China Sea

The US, China and the Struggle for the Western believes this scenario is all too possible.

For most of the decades since World War II, the Philippines has rested comfortably on the US when it comes to military, security, and foreign policy questions. But the rapid rise of China as a regional economic and military power has complicated the situation dramatically, and the Philippines is now forced to confront rising tensions and navigate a landscape that is suddenly more complicated. Writing in the Huffington Post, following the Hague ruling, Heydarian believes that China may impose an “exclusion zone” across the area imperilling freedom of fly overs and navigation for regional and external military forces.

This would be resisted by other regional powers and the US and could lead to a dramatic escalation of the arguments over the South China Sea. SINOSHIP 2016

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OPINION ■ ■ ■

The gloom of waiting for the turnaround Katherine Harine compares the US and China economies AS OOCL’S CC Tung pointed out in August major global economic issues will hold back box shipping for the next five years.

Of course dry bulk is in the same boat too. Global economic and geopolitical problems continue to hamper any growth in most segments of maritime shipping. The key question is, how long will this last? Or even, are cycles over?

First we look at the US and China and then wonder if are there broader questions that have not been asked but need to be addressed?

Let’s look at China. Tung points out that China has avoided a hard landing. Linette Lopez, at Business Insider, has discussed a recent HSBC research note which posits that China may have rebalanced its economy prematurely. Clearly, the Chinese leadership is dealing with a slowdown in economic growth, intentional or otherwise. There may have been

a mistiming of policies but Tung is correct.

Tung says the US may have passed the “most difficult period in this cycle.” But the major US problem may be that its recovery is so mediocre because there is a structural problem that is not being addressed. Tung may be too optimistic here. The fact that the recovery has only gone to the very rich while wealth inequality has continued to increase indicates that the path forward is heading to political unrest. It appears that political leaders have few new thoughts on how to attack the problem. Neither US candidate for president, Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton, proposes the massive, multi-trillion dollar, infrastructure projects that would get money in the hands of the workers. When he took office, Obama failed by not tying a huge infrastructure bill to the Wall Street bailouts. And,

would either current candidate appoint Federal Reserve board members who would cease the low interest rates which have created bubbles and simply loaned billions to Wall Street banks, hedge funds, and private equity firms? Remember how low rates helped destroy dry bulk shipping.

China has a great advantage over the US because it is run by engineers rather than politicians and lawyers. China has evolved from a country which was based on an ideology, communism, to a country which is based more on pragmatism.

When programs fail they are changed. In the US the president who was pragmatic was Franklin Delano Roosevelt. FDR would try programs. If they succeeded, they were continued; if they failed, they were dropped.

In contrast the Obama administration has continued with a very middling economic policy.

Another huge negative is

the desire for the US to push its values on various populations throughout the world. In the Middle East the result has been a string of failed states, countries where the strong leaders have been replaced by vacuums: Iraq, Syria, and Libya.

In Asia US policies could very well hinder the development of trade through the South China Sea. As clashes develop in that area, Asian countries could very well end up having to choose one of two sides: The Chinese block with participation in the Belt and Road Initiative or the US side with very low growth.

And if the US causes mischief in the South China Sea all maritime trade may be adversely affected.

Several very broad questions may also need to be considered in trying to determine if there is an upturn in the global economy, hence in shipping.

First, is democracy compatible with capitalism?

Or does the freedom of capitalism simply allow those with power to accumulate more wealth and power to the detriment of those at the lower levels of the economic ladder? Does concentration of wealth hinder growth in an economy? With a large population on the Earth, does the economy become a zero-sum game? Does a large population create shortages and then do these shortages provide an opportunity for the wealthy to increase inequality by raising prices for items in demand?

Think of the recent price hikes by several pharmaceutical firms.

The problem is not that the current US candidates for president don’t have the answers to these questions; it is that they are not even looking at these questions. They simply cling to ideologies based on beliefs, not data. Sadly the current election is even worse. Each candidate’s personality dominates the public discussion. Issues are ignored.

SINOSHIP 2016

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■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

PHOTO FINISH ■ ■ ■ STORMY CONDITIONS A giant CMA CGM ship seen in Hong Kong waters.

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目录 ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 1 编者语 4 经济 5 班轮 6 船厂 9 离岸 10 法律 11 商品

削减产能是合理的做法, 但 中国市场份额为37%，韩国为 35%，日本为19%，谁首先削 减和谁削减最多就是一场懦夫 游戏。

6

—克拉克森研究总裁Martin Stopford博士

一带一粒有潜力帮助世界度 过当前的危机。

■ ■ ■ 专题 12 一带一路 14 港口

12

— 珍宝航运总经理Khalid Hashim

2030年中国港口过剩容量 将达到1亿teu — 经合组织的港口专家 Olaf Merk

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André Eichman, Basil Pao 所有编辑资料请发送至sam@asiashippingmedia.com 商务主管 Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip同时也在东京、首尔和奥斯陆设有广告 代理机构。欲获取当地代理联系信息请发送邮件 到grant@asiashippingmedia.com。 媒体信息可在www.asiashippingmedia.com下载。 所有商务资料请发送至grant@asiashippingmedia. com 或邮寄到Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd 30 Cecil Street, #19-08 Prudential Tower Singapore 049712 设计 Tigersoft Pte Ltd 印刷 香港雅联印刷有限公司 订阅 总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取SinoShip 期 刊。对于 所 有 其 他 公 司，订 阅 S i n o S h i p 2 014 年 4 期 需 要 收 费10 0 美 元 。订 阅 每 月 发 行 两 次 的 P D F 格 式 的 S i n o S h i p电子 新 闻（包 含 独 家 新 闻 、数 据 和 分 析）需 收 费5 0 0 美 元。订 阅 咨 询 请发 送 邮 件 到 su b s@ asiashippingmedia.com。 版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2016 为确保 本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努 力，但出版社 对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何 责任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不 得对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以 任何形式或方式传输。

现在是购买便宜的二手干散货运力的好时 机吗？ 与一些业内人士交谈后，我认为答 案是肯定的，当然你需要足够的勇气。 “现在散货船价格在波动调整的基础 上处于历史最低位价格，但是近年来船队 增长超过了货物运输需求导致了低船运费 率。我们需要看到拆船量或是货运需求的 增长才能使资产回归到干散货行业。我们 还需要更低的新造船订单量，” Braemar Shipping Services的CEO James Kidwell 说。 “当然船相比几年前看起来更便宜，而 且价值在今年早些时候甚至增长了一些， 现在可能已经触底，但是从那以后趋于平 稳而且收益仍然惨淡，并没有多少动机来 投资，”来自香港Mandarin Shipping的Tim Huxley说道。 尽管如此，船东们今年还是将大量运力 纳入囊中。根据VesselsValue.com的数据，今 年前八个月，在干散货S&P市场共有35.1亿 美元的交易，与去年同期的36.6亿美元相 差无几。 国际财务咨询公司First International Corporation 的主席 Paul Slater 同意 Huxley 的观点。 “即时目前价格大打折扣，我也看不到 任何购买散货船的理由。在大多数航线上 租金收入和货运收入甚至低于运营成本， 更别说债务利息了，” Slater说。 Slater认为，伴随着美国和中国下降的进 口消费，运力过剩将在未来十年内持续，甚 至延伸到再下一个十年的前半部分。 泰国的Precious Shipping的总经理Khalid Hashim认为投资者应该利用目前处于低位 的散货船价格获得快速的盈利。 “目前购买二手船的一个原因是与新造 船价格相比的折扣，以及所有关于购买新 船会加剧运力过剩的担忧，只要新造船的

折旧价格与五年船龄的二手船的实际价格 之间的差价是正的，” Hashim 说道。 根据Clarksons Platou的一份报告，五年 船龄的二手灵便型散货船基准价格和新造 灵便型散货船的价值在今年分别下降了2% 和5%至930万美元和1950万美元，并保持 稳定。新造船与二手船巨大的价差持续阻 碍订造新造船的活动，这应该使运费市场 在将来获益。中国船厂以巨大的折扣出售 被取消或是被遗弃的新造船。 “不仅对现金流充裕的公司来说，现在 是买二手船的好时机，” Clarksons Platou Asia的总经理Martin Rowe说， “而且可能对 现金吃紧的公司来说，也是好时机。运营 不顺应目前市场环境要求的老旧船舶没有 意义，不如购入相对现代的船舶，在未来几 年也容易交易，这样也是更稳定更长的投 资。船东应该进入市场才能赢得市场，而不 是仅仅满足于支撑生计。” “所以现在是时候拿起骰子，再来赌一 把，”这位船舶经纪人总结说。

姜浩 编辑 Jason@asiashippingmedia.com SINOSHIP 2016

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■ ■ ■ 经济

出口商正在受到伤害 中国与几乎所有方面的贸易都在下降，Paul French写道

美 国的 总 统大选周期和欧洲 的英国脱欧抢占了各大媒体的 头 条，可谓 尘嚣日上，吸引眼 球，但在这阵喧闹中，经济报道 中也越来越少见中国的身影。 原因可能是长久以来第一次， 中国的经济实际上表现沉闷而 平静。我们现在已经了解了更 全面的形势，来源就是中国政 府的上半年经济数据 - 从依赖 重工业的高速增长经济向以消 费和服务为基础的经济的成功 转型。 但这依然的确意味着中国是 一个分化成两部分的经济体， 你有多欢喜或多忧虑，取决于 你与哪一部分有关。如果你从 事中国的服务业、消费业或零 售行业，那么几乎全是好消息 - 服务和消费表现依然强劲， 现在已经成为经济中最大的一 部分。今年上半年，最终消费占 到中国 GDP 增长的 73%，实际 零售销售额增幅将近 10%。电 4

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子商务和 B2C 销售额如预期一 样出现大幅攀升，而美好的旧 式商场零售也表现良好。 但经济中的工业部分则发展 缓慢。政 府正竭尽全力，确保 普通工人不会因此而背负伤痛 – 国有企业规则进行了修改， 承担大部分工业职位的农民工 平均月工资在 2016 年 6 月上涨 了 7%。但如果你身处进出口行

业，情况则不是这么乐观。中国 的 6 月份出口整整下降了 4.8% （按美元计），4月和5月份则分 别下降了4.1%和1.8%。中国的 进口表现甚至更差 – 6月份下 降了8.4%。中国的贸易盈余从 499.8 亿美元下降到 481.1 亿美 元。 中国与几乎所有方面的贸易 都在下降 – 欧盟、美国、东南

缓慢而平稳–中国GDP增长率首次触及5%

上半年

GDP 增长率 %

2011年上半年 2012年上半年 2013年上半年 2014年上半年 2015年上半年 2016年上半年

10.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.7

资料来源： 北京香港环亚经济数据有限公司 (CEIC Beijing)

亚的东盟国家。似乎世界各地 对于中国制造商品的需求都在 大幅下滑。但也要记住的重要 一点，就是汇率变动影响了以 美元计的出口量 – 6 月份人民 币比一年前贬值了 8%。反之， 大宗商品（金属、能源和燃料 等）价格的下降部分解释了进 口增长率的疲软，但产量降低 当然也意味着必要的输入需求 降低。 中国 对于其钢 材 倾 销关 税 的反应的确让很多分析师和其 他人士恼火。中国政府倾向于 对关税采取报复性的方法，位 于北京的商务部已经对来自日 本、韩国和欧盟的进口钢材征 收反倾销关税。这是明显的以 牙还牙策略，并不代表中国钢 材生产商与世界其他地区的关 系。期待中国政府与世界其他 有关方面展开更严肃的贸易谈 判，将是2016年剩余时间内的 一个议题。

班轮 ■ ■ ■

当航运业最大的合并尘埃落 定，SinoShip按行业解析中远 海运集团。中海集运更名为中 远海运发展并成为一个金融租 赁平台。 中远太平洋更名为中 远海运港口，中海发展现在成 为中远海运能源运输。最新的 整合还创造了集装箱航运分支 中远海运集装箱和散运分支中 远海运散货运输，分别驻扎在 上海和广州。中远航运是该集 团的重吊船/多用途船，以及汽 车船的分部，中远造船工业也 整合了所有中远和中海集团的

造船和修船资产，包括中远造 船，中海工业，中远南通川崎和 中远大连川崎。 这是一场彻底的，大规模的 整合，比预想中的还要迅速。然 而，整合中的困难显而易见。今 年前六个月，集团的主要上市 平台中远控股报告亏损人民币 72亿(10.8亿美元)，成为大陆上 市公司在过去十年以来最大的 半年度亏损。

据SinoShip了解，这场整合在 2018年底之前不会完成。

中国船东韦立航运在2016年一 直是好望角型散货船的积极买 家。当大多数船东已经停止在 这个萧条的干散货市场购买资 产，这家以新加坡作为总部的 公司一直很激进的购进许多便 宜资产。韦立航运近年来主要 在西非和中国间运输货品。

其他的合并则花费更多的时间 来完成。去年北京主导了招商 局集团兼并中外运长航集团， 然而这个过程将花费至少两年 的时间。值得回忆的是之前中 外运集团和长航集团的整合就 并不愉快，中外运长航集团自 整合之后一直没有安顿下来。

香港灵便型船东Taylor Maritime透露了加速船队扩 张的计划。在2014年成立之 后，Taylor Maritime在短短两 年时间内将船队扩张到了九艘 船。Taylor Maritime由Edward Buttery创建，他的父亲Chris Buttery创建了Pacific Basin以及 Epic Gas。 Taylor Maritime计划在2017 年底拥有20艘船，并拥有再购 买10艘船的资金。

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SINOSHIP 2016

5

未来将会有更多不确定 的产能削减 中国将在这个十年周期结束时削减更多造船产能，Sam Chambers 这样写道 自 从 雷 曼 兄弟八年前破产以 来，中国一直是东亚的三大 造 船国中削减产能最多的。近几 个月以来，中国政 府不断 地修 订 其 所 谓的 受 批 准 船 厂白名 单，分析师和我们的读者都期 望中国 直 到 这个 十 年周 期 结 束，继续比对手日本和韩国削 减更多产能。 世 界上 最 知 名的 船 运分析 师之一称，船厂的过剩产能规 模惊人。Clarksons Research 总裁 Martin Stopford 博士告 诉 Maritime 首席执行官： “ 根据 Clarksons Research 的统 计，2 0 16 年 的 造 船 产 量 约 为 1.03 亿载重吨 (dwt) ，至少比新 6

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船的相关需求高出 30%。” 中国的进口基本没有增长； 世界经济处于低谷；离岸市场 困难重重，Stopford称只有“勇 敢降价”才能维持当前产能。

根据 Clarksons Research 的统 计，2016年的造船产 量约为1.03亿载重吨 (dwt) ，至少比 新船的相关需求高出

30%

“削减产能是合理的做 法”，他认为， “但中国市场份 额为 37%，韩国为 35%，日本为 19%，谁首先削减和谁削减最 多就是一场懦夫游戏。” 从 2 0 0 9 年 初 开始，全 球“ 在 运 营 ”船 厂 数 量 已 经 减 少 了一半还多，根据 Clarksons Research 的统计，到 2016 年 9 月初已经下降至约 400 家 船厂。按照这家 英国公司的定 义，如 果 船 厂 至 少 有一 艘 船 （1,000+ 总吨 (gt)）的订单，则 它就是“在运营”，而“不在运 营”的造船厂则没有订单，表明 其能力非常薄弱。 随 着在 运营船厂的数 量

下 降 ，新 船 的 产 量 也 在 下 降，Clarkson Research 预计按 照修正总吨 (cgt) 统计，今年这 个数 字 将比 2 010 年峰 值下降 34%。 从 2 0 0 5 年 起 ，在 运 营 中 国 船 厂的 数 量 一直 在快 速 增 加，2009年增长117%，达到 382 家的峰值。很多新船厂专门投 身于散装货船领域；在这一时 期，中国的造船厂大约拿到了一 半的散货船订单。随后，中国在 运营船厂的数量下降63%，关 闭的船厂中将近一半是已交付 两艘或更少数量船的“小型” 船厂。到 2016 年 9 月初，仅有 140家在运营的中国船厂，或者

船厂 ■ ■ ■

说大约占全球全部在运营船厂 的 35%。 加拿大 Teekay Corporation 本月初发布的一 份报告中，认 为全球造船产能在未来五年还 会减少 20-30%。 这家油轮巨头预计，很多小 型船厂将关张，大型船厂会削 减产能，未来几年内将会出现 多次造船行业的整合。 “对于全球海运市场，船厂 产能削 减 应 该 被看 做 积 极现 象，因为这降低了出现长期供 应过剩市场的风险。短期内还 会有更多收益，因为有些船厂 可能倒闭，会引发订单取消，因 此会减缓船队的增长。对于当 前在供应过剩泥潭中苦苦挣扎 的海运行业来说，这将是一种 受到欢迎的缓和。”这家上市 公司强调。 Teekay统计数据表明，头八个 月一共只有 720 万修正吨数 (cgt) 的新订单，至少是从 1990 年代 初以来新订单最少的一年。 英国市场预测机构 Maritime Strategies International (MSI) 的 总监 Adam Kent 博士警告称，

船厂关门停业并不一定表示船 厂关闭了。 Kent 提醒道，即便船厂倒闭 或者被封存，常规的基础设施 依然会保留下来。 “因为船厂的产能不再为即 时提供新能力造成限制因素， 这为海运市场周期变得更短、 峰值 更低铺平了道路。”Kent 这样预测。 国际海运商会 (ICS) 的新主 席 Esben Poulsson 认为，过剩的 造船产能不会永远持续下去， 但上一个十年的海运周期却永 远一去不复返了。 来自 Lexington Maritime 的 Tobias Koenig 称，产能过剩已 经是海运的新常态。 “市场已经完全过度建设， 大 部 分 行 业 的 船 队 需 要大 约 50%的报废率。”他说，随后补

充 道： “总会有订购新船的原 因，这会加剧产能 过 剩，并让 市 场 保 持 在 相当 受 抑 制的 水 平。” 位于纽约的希腊船舶融资专 家 Basil Karatzsas 对 Kent 的观 点提出了异议。 “我们 都从 基 本的经济原 理中知道，产能过剩不可能是 市场的常态；最终一些船厂不 得 不关 闭或 取消 部 分 过 剩 能 力。”他这样认为，并表示将在 中国最强烈地感受到船厂的缩 减。 “当 普 通的 船厂没有任 何 可 用 的 融 资 时，过 剩 的 造 船 产 能 的 实 质 性 后果 微乎其 微。”Karatzsas坚持这样认为。 这不仅仅是船厂规模问题， 船 东 也 要 考 虑 其 效 率 。这 本 杂志的首席意见作家 Andrew

削减产能是合理的做法，但中国 市场份额为37%，韩国为35%， 日本为19%，谁首先削减和谁削减 最多就是一场懦夫游戏。

Craig-Bennett 认为，在他的人 生中，建造灵便型散装货船所 需的工时数已经大致减少了四 分之三。 “造船产能完全没有任何实 际的限制。”Craig-Bennett 认 为， “现代船厂，”他说， “可以 通过转包装配、转包分段以及 实际上转包任何业务缩减自身 产能。” Craig-Bennett 认为，船舶供 应的唯一实际限制就是主发动 机供应 – 这是唯一由专家手工 制造的现代船舶大型部件。 今年迄今为止，船舶订单合 同跌落到 20 年来最低的水平， 在未来几个月，更多订单 稀薄 的船厂不得不关门谢客。 在我们的姐妹出版物 Splash 开展的持续性调查中，似乎中 国将继续最大规模地削减船厂 数量，这也符合中国政府削减 工业过剩产能和中国经济中低 效能力的努力。在迄今为止的 300 名受访者中，大约一半感 觉中国将到 2020 年更多地削 减造船能力，在比例上要超出 邻国韩国和日本。

SINOSHIP 2016

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法律 ■ ■ ■

中国海事法律的公正 资深的上海律师Peter Murray为SinoShip启动了定期的专栏

根据我们 现在的了解，中国的 海事法院架构首次于 1984 年 设定，从那之后的一段较短时 间里，十家主要的海事法院进 一步在南北海岸和长江沿岸成 立了 39 家分院，毫无疑问这 是世 界上 最 大 的 海 事 法 院 架 构。他们均依照1993 年中国海 事法进行事务决断。 暂且不论 庞大 的 案件 数 量 （2015 年立案 16,000 起）， 批判性地看待中国的海事法院 做出的公正判决质量的一种有 用方式，就是阅读初审和上诉 至当 地高级 法 院 或 很 少 情况 下上诉至北京最高法院的判决 书。10 家主要的法院中，几家 拥有自己的网站；近期北京最 高法院审理的一场海上营救案

件听证会进行了电视转播。 值得 被 视为范例的一 个 判 决，是 上 海 海 事 法 院 的 一 次 货物损坏索赔，这起案件上诉 至上海高级法院，其判决于去 年 11 月 12 日下发。在翻译 件中，合并的判决书将近 100 页。 争议涉及多个相关方，包括 一些知名企业： 苏黎世保险（ 中国）、平安保险和 Murmansk Shipping Co.。索赔由 roro 散杂 货船 Yuriy Arshenevskiy 运输 的履带起重机（由中联重科制 造和运输）受损引发，航线为 从天津和上海起航，目的地为 Mundra 和孟买。 该 船驶离上海 不久 就 遭 遇 台风 梅 花，麻 烦 就 这 样 开 始

了。在印度登 陆后，人们发现 货物基本上已经完全受损，被 运回上海作为废品进行销售。 货物受损的起因被归结为不当 捆扎和受台风影响，船舶的航 行疏忽又加剧了问题。两家海 事法院都裁决不当捆扎要承担 20% 的损失责任的事实，承运 人也必须按照这一比例赔偿货 方利益。按照正常方式，承 运 人被豁免承担由台风额外引发 的危险和航行疏忽一起导致的 剩余 80% 的责任。 在这一案例中，按照中国海 事法应用的原则，与按照英国 法律会应用的原则基本完全相 同。一般情况下，按比例划分损 失的责任会在海事律师中引发 一个问题：一个法院如何判定

不当捆扎仅承担 20% 的损坏 责任？ 不应该是非此即彼吗： 完全承担责任或完全无责任？ 事 实是大部 分 货物索 赔都 被解决了，很多时候解决的水 平以对所有人可能要承担责任 的风险评估为基础。找到合理 解决方法的流程与这一案例中 法官采取的方法大致相同。 法律公正的一点影响。 需要指出的最后一点，就是 Murmansk Shipping Co 是所谓 的无 责任的“实际承 运人”。 那是法律链条中的最后一环， 一家上海公司。有一点可以确 定：中国的海事法院将处理越 来越多的复杂和新型争议，有 时候也会发展出处理案件的新 方法。 SINOSHIP 2016

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现金为王 来自M3 Marine的Mike Meade提供了一幅对惨淡价格环境的冷静写照 海工船运营商的会议室需要准备好再迎接五年的风暴，Andre Wheeler撰文 我 给 寻求 海工船市场投资机 会的私 募和资产 管 理 人 最 新 一轮 的 咨询服 务 建 议 称 该 行 业面 临的 逆 势 规 模 将进 一步 扩大。几个月前，围绕着该 行 业内新机会的辩论在船东和运 营商之间展开。这场辩论聚焦 于使海上状况起伏并且不安全 的“飓风”。在这里我来谈一下 手 持 现 金 原 则以及如 何 更 好 管理它。 市场，尤其是东南亚市场发 生了什么加剧了这些改变？在 该区域主要的趋势有： 利用率下降- 我们看到在 AH T S和P SV行业利用率已经 下降到50%，有些公司报告称 10

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利用率已经下降到23%。 日租 金下 降，与 2 0 14 年 相 比，平均下降40%。 对于“老旧”船舶的定义已 经从20年下降到15年。 船舶运力过剩，476个新订 单中的2 0 0 个为投机订单，所 有船队数量的11%被闲置。 大 多 数 更 小 的 船 舶（低 于 8 0 系桩 拉 力的 A H T S 和 低 于 3,200dwt的船）正在受到影响 平台比例 下降，2 015/16 年 海工船船队增长18%，使船与 平台比例增长了35%。 平台利用率，全球下降20%， 东南亚下降38%。 海工项目承包备件，海工成

本下降15%。 二手船价格下降40%。 海 工 船市 场 的下沉 是由于 我称为民族主义倾向的出现。 例 如，马 来 西 亚 和 印 度 尼 西 亚，两个增长的市场，正在 强 制实施沿海航行规则。中东地 区也在经历相同的过程，使国 际运营商的前景十分困难。 伴随着这些，出现了资产价 值的审查，特别是关于债务水 平。一些公司由于他们尝试重 组债务和偿还条件，已经审查 了他们的估值。同时也出现了 船队审查，特别对于船龄和规 模 。新 船 销 售 价 格 折 扣 已 达 30%，我们看到了价值 从资产

负债表中被抹去。 市场和 二手 船 价格都 在下 跌，公司门无法依靠资产销售 来增加现金收入。他们不得不 从其他方面，例如削减成本， 特别是系统和供应链方面。另 一 个 选 择是 用 低费率 锁 定长 期合同以保证现金收入，例如 用牺牲利润来获取收入的老办 法是可行的。 目前的市场上的萧条状况可 能会持续到2018年，现金至上 的原则将渗透到海工船行业。 这个主题将在未来五年主导会 议室的讨论，伴随着所有市场 的低利用率和租金，我们期待 会看见不良资产销售的增长。

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中国面临更大希望 来自 Commodore Research 的 Jeffrey Landsberg 认为，人们在争论中国的钢铁策略时有误解。

7月底 的 时候，中国的铁矿石 开采商开始呼吁对从澳大利亚 和巴西进口的铁矿石实施反倾 销调查。总体上看，人们普 遍 认为这是中国受到有关钢铁出 口的强烈批评之后的报复性回 应。我们同意这种观点，也认为 中国决定将重心转向铁矿石出 口多少是一种必要的策略，以 提醒全世界他们是多么需要中 国以及也需要接受中国。 自从 2014 年初起，中国的 钢铁出口当然已经充斥市场， 但认识到市场从 2014 年开始 发生了多大的变化也很重要， 中国生产大量的钢材，然后出 口巨大数量也有着合理的经济 原因。 在 2014 年之前的十年 中，钢材价格与铁矿石价格基 本上彼此持平。价格的最大差 异出现在 2011 年，这段时间内 中国钢材价格大约下跌了 6%， 同时全球铁矿石价格下降了约

19% - 由此造成了 13% 的净差 异。此外，在 2014 年之前的每 一年，每年平均的价差波动仅 为 8%。 但是到了 2014 年，一切都 变了。 2014 年，中国的钢材价 格大约下降了14%，而全球铁矿 石价格下滑了约55%。2014年， 中国的钢材利润率找到了重要 的支撑，如同我们过去常常强 调的，中国总体上从全球铁矿 石价格暴跌中获益很多。尽管 中国的经济增长在 2014 年开 始显著放缓，中国的钢材产量 依然继续大幅增长，创造了尚 未被打破的纪录。总体上看，钢 材利润率得到重大支撑加上中 国经济增长放缓（包括中国的 钢材消耗增长放缓），导致了中 国的钢材出口量在2014年忽然 攀升。 2014 年，钢材和铁矿石价差 的波动出现了巨大变化，中国的

钢材出口也发生了剧变。2014 年之前的十年，中国的钢材出口 量基本上每年的增幅都一致。 然而到了 2014 年，中国的钢材 出口量年同比增加了 3,150 万 吨。这种飙 升前所未见，部分 原因在于中国的钢材利润率大 幅增长。 最近几周内，我们阅读了大 量对比中国的钢材出口与澳大 利亚和巴西铁矿石出口的评论文 章，很多观点认为中国繁荣的钢 材出口已经成为某种形式的倾 销，而繁荣的全球铁矿石出口则 一直是合理的（我们同意，铁矿 石出口增长是合理的，且不必进 行反倾销调查）。但对 2014 年 的分析表明，中国从 2014 年开 始大幅增加钢材出口量，存在着 非常合理的经济原因。2015年， 中国的钢材价格也要优于全球 铁矿石价格（2014 年钢材价格下 降约 35%，铁矿石价格跌幅则约

为38%），使稳定的钢材出口环 境得以持续。2016 年上半年，全 球铁矿石价格最终胜过了中国 的钢材价格，但今年的头五个月 时间里，中国钢材价格的确上涨 了约 31%，而全球铁矿石价格涨 幅仅为 14%，这进一步促使中国 的钢厂近期继续制造（并随后 出口）巨大数量的钢材。 展望未来，我们预计中国钢 材价格将在今年下半年继续优 于全球铁矿石价格，今年的中 国钢材出口（以及总体的中国 钢材生产）将继续保持强劲。 中国铁矿石进口也有望保持强 劲。中国的表现胜 过了世界上 大部分国家，全球经济继续仰 赖中国才能繁荣发展。但近期 发生的变化，就是重心已从中 国繁荣的钢材出口转向了全球 大宗商品生产商 - 在这里就是 澳大利亚和巴西的铁矿石开采 商。 SINOSHIP 2016

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一带一路阐释 来自 Precious Shipping 的 Khalid Hashim 分析中国规模巨大的跨洲基础设施计划

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G o o g l e 上 搜 索一 带 一

路 (OBOR)，会出现大约 15,700,000 个结果。在 这些相同的文章里，一 带一路的总支出各不相同，从 1.2 万亿的 低点到 21 万亿的天文数字。这一概念目 前涵盖三个大洲 65 个国家，包括 44 亿人 口。一带一路的预计投资额 1.4 万亿大约 是马歇尔计划的 12 倍，后者按照今天的 价值计算约为 1,200 亿美元。除此之外， 实际上有数百家在香港成立的公司有类似 的名字。这也是一带一路催生出来的无节 制宣传现象。 那么到底什么是一带一路？ 它是一个

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概 念性 计 划，对于多国之间更大 规 模合 作、包容性和更高增长的一个愿景，由中 国国家主席习近平在 2013 年底提出，借鉴 了历史上的丝绸之路，但更多的重心放在 了我们单极世界的紧张地缘政治局势上， 唯一的超级大国美国，主要在中东、非洲 和阿富汗参与战争/冲突。一带一路以“双 赢”合作为基础，要克服让世界濒于战争 威胁的地缘政治摩擦。它有潜力帮助世界 度过当前的危机。 在一带一路国家的筹资、支出和活动方 面，迄今为止取得了如下成就： · 成立了亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)， 已经注入了 400 亿美元资本。多边的

AIIB 的融资能力有可能大大高于来自 57 个成员国 1,000 亿美元的创办资本 承诺。 · 成立了丝路基金，其有望获得 400 亿美 元本金。 · 金砖国家新发展银行 (NDB) 的创办承 诺资本为 1,000 亿美元。 · 作为金砖国家融资来源的新发展银行 拥有 1,000 亿美元配额。 · 中国发展银行已承诺向一带一路项目投 资 9.000 亿美元。 · 在推动中国一带一路战略的投标中， 位于香港的中国招商局国际 (China Merchants Holdings International) 有意在

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俄罗斯、西非和东南亚的 10 个港口进 行投资。 · 中国电 力建 设 集 团 在 巴 基 斯 坦 拥 有 四个项目，总装机容量达 182MW，在 越南有一个 24MW 项目，在泰国有一 个 60MW 项目。2015 年，中国领先的 风机制造商金风科技赢得了巴基斯坦 四个风电项目的供 应合同，总 装机 容 量超过 270MW。截至 2018 年底，金风 国际在巴基斯坦的总装机容量将超过 400MW，占该国容量的三分之一。 · 孟加拉国-中国-印度-缅甸经济走廊已 经成为现实。 · Ricoh Europe 从鹿特丹经过铁路运输集 装箱最多用时 20 天到达中国，没有任 何延迟。且 CO2 排放量远低于飞机的 火车，将成为替代运输方式。 · 2015 年，中国的公司在参加一带一路的 国家投资将近 150 亿美元，比 2014 年 增长五分之一。2015 年，经济走廊沿线 的 49 个国家在中国投资 82 亿美元，增 长 25%。

饱受经济疲软和债务之苦的欧洲正在 渴求中国投资。中国的国有企业和资金 正在热情参与，从希腊到英国购买港 口、房地产和科技公司。中国将欧洲视 为其一带一路计划的终点。 · 过去十年间，中国与一带一路国家的贸 易平均每年增幅为 18.2%，占中国外贸 总量的 20% 。过去十年间，中国在一带 一路国家的直接投资从 2.4 亿美元增长 到 92.7 亿美元，每年增长 44%。 · 2016 年 2 月，从中国东部的浙江省出 发，经过哈萨克斯坦和土库曼斯坦之 后，经过 14 天 10,399 公里的旅程，第 一辆来自中国的货运列车抵达伊朗德黑 兰。 · 中国的努力还包括 460 亿美元的中国巴基斯坦经济走廊。 · 其 他 关 键 计 划 包 括 中国 在 中 欧 的 投 资，如中国–白俄罗斯工业园，在哈萨克 斯坦签署 33 项交易，价值高达 216 亿 美元，涵盖采矿、工程、加工、运输、石 油、天然气等行业。 · 中国电力工程有限公司参与了白俄罗斯 Vitebsk Hydroelectric Power Plant 的高质 量建设工作，这是一家注重环保的能源 企业。 · 根据 2 月发布的普华永道报告，已经建 成、近期启动或已经 达成一致 并签署 的、与一带一路计划有关的项目大约价 值 2,500 亿美元。 · 巴基斯坦的深水港瓜达尔 (Gwadar) 由 中国海外港口控股公司运营，由中国港 湾工程公司建造。 · 2015 年，缅甸与中国签署协议，要在皎 漂港 (Kyaukphyu) 建造一座深水港口。 · 中 国 参 与 了 孟 加 拉 国 正 在 进 行 的 Sonadia Island 新深水港口建设工作。 · 中国在斯里兰卡参与的两个项目是科伦 坡集装箱码头和 Hambantota 新港。 · 在海上丝绸之路的欧洲一端，中国正在 投资建设希腊的 Piraeus 港。 但一带一路的真正优势在于其地缘政 治获益，不但中国获益，世界上所有国家 都会获益，而不仅仅是参与这一理念的国 家。仅列举其中几项： · 来自 40 个丝路国家的 80 多名官员、大 使和代表在西班牙 Valencia 的 St. Pius V Museum 会晤，祈盼丝路上四个主要 宗教实现和平： 基督教、伊斯兰教、犹 太教和佛教，强调了当前令人震惊的驱 逐和流亡形势以及地中海地区正在发 生的难民潮。

· 一带一路将通过带来和平、经济发展和 创造就业，发挥水坝作用，遏制急切要 求进入欧盟的难民风潮，这也与一带一 路的基础设施目标相吻合。 · 在应对巴基斯坦激增的年轻人口的就 业问题上，中巴经济走廊 (CPEC) 创造 的就业机会带了了巨大帮助，而且在巴 基斯坦北部地区促成的经济活动也将 为遭受恐怖主义打击的区域恢复久违 的稳定与和平局面。 · 中亚的伊斯兰好战分 子与中国政府指 责为在易滋生暴乱的西部地区新疆自治 区宣扬分离主义的人士之间的联系，也 一直是中国的心头之痛。随着一带一路 提供大量就业机会、促成并增加经济活 动，将为中国的麻烦区域和中亚的共和 国带来和平与繁荣。 · 一带一路的诸多基础设施项目将使中 国的贫困内陆地区受益，将他们与全球 经济融为一体，并帮助缩小中国快速增 大的贫富差距。 · 中 国 将 通 过 一 带 一 路 计 划，在 三 大 洲、65 个国家和 44 亿人口中获得信誉 和影响力。 · 亚洲、非洲和欧洲的一带一路港口降低 了对要通过可能不安全的马六甲海峡瓶 颈地区的贸易流量的依赖。 当然这也会带来将对中国经济极有帮助 的几种好处，其也会间接使干散货运输受 益，比如： · 中国将利用 ~30% 的闲置钢厂产能，以 世界上可能最低的成本为一带一路基础 设施项目生产钢材。 · 生产钢材的另一种原料焦炭也同样供 应过剩/低价，因此的确能以非常低廉的 价格生产钢材。 · 中国的水泥厂闲置产能约占 ~40%，使 其能够为一带一路生产廉价水泥。 · 中国钢铁和水泥行业的就业形势不再 面临风险。 · 中国能够将劳动密集型行业从就业充 分、劳 动力成 本高昂以及房地产价格 昂贵的华南和华东地区转移到西部地 区，西部劳动力数量充足、价格低廉且 土地并不昂贵，因此能够延长劳动密集 型行业的寿命，将一流基础设施与其各 自的出口/国内市场关联起来。 · 上述行动将使得中国经济平稳过渡至 服务和消费引导模式。 · 可通过完全双赢的解决方案实现所有 上述目标，无需进行轰炸，也无需杀害 任何人。 SINOSHIP 2016

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■ ■ ■ 专题

需要雷厉风行展开行动 Jason Jiang 阐述中国的大规模港口过度建设局面

回

到 1990 年代，全球前 20 大集装箱港口简直就是一 份日本城市的名单。直到 20 世纪末，日本建造了大 量港口，但如同日本过剩的桥梁一样，港口 也很快感受到了过剩的痛苦。过去二十年 间的大部分时间里，日本的港口不得不合 并区域性港口，以对抗码头建设带来的困 扰。在这个十年间，前 20 大集装箱港口中

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WWW.SPLASH247.COM

没有日本港口的名字。 当然中国很多港口跻身前 20 大之列， 也许将永远占据靠前的位置。把香港包括 在内的话，中国大陆在 20 大港口中占据九

席。自从 1992 年，李嘉诚与和记港口控股 (Hutchison Port Holdings) 在大陆赢得了开 发深圳盐田港的第一份很有价值的合同 之后，中国就以前所未有的规模开始了港

根据需求而不是政客的雄心逐步引入新 容量

专题 ■ ■ ■

口建设。但是根据牛顿的理论，上升的必 须要下降：过剩的容量现在非常明显地沿 着海岸线起起落落。随着中国经济发展放 缓，港岸起重机处于闲置状态。如同日本 一样，港口合并将来势在必行。 经合组织的港口专家 Olaf Merk 称，相 对于实际的容量，中国大约有 5,000 万标 准集装箱 (teu) 的集装箱港口多余容量。 如果要直观地理解 5,000 万的数据，那就 是比日本、韩国、中国台湾和俄罗斯的吞吐 量之和还要多。 Merk 警告称： “看到已经在规划中的容 量时，情况可能更加糟糕，2030 年过剩容 量将达到几乎 1 亿标准集装箱 (teu)。” 这种容量过剩的主要原因是中国的贸易 增长降低和中国城市之间的竞争一起导致 的，他解释道。

“很多中国城市的市长们雄心勃勃， 力图打造最大的港口；这造成了极无协调 性的基础设施建设热潮，出现了在经济增 速达到两位数时可以得到有效利用的港口 容量，但在当前形势下这些容量则是多余 的。”Merk 这样解释。 中央政府已经呼吁当地省政府和主要 港口通过整合优化运营和容量。 上海国际航运研究中心 (SISI) 的研究 总监 Zhao Nan 称重组可能持续数年时 间。Zhao 声称，长江的港口也将开始新一 轮合并与重组。 目前中国各地都正在开展一系列全面的 港口重组。 2015年，浙江省政府开始整合省内的五 个主要港口，包括宁波港、舟山港、嘉兴 港、台州港和温州港。政府已经成立了浙江 省海港投资运营集团有限公司(ZPIO)，以 在一个平台下运营港口。完成重组之后，该 集团按照港口吞吐量计，将成为中国以及 全世界最大的港口公司。到目前为止，宁波 港已经完成与舟山港的合并。 2015年，浙江省总共完成了 11 亿吨港口 货物吞吐量，其中宁波-舟山占 8.9 亿吨。 目前天津港也正与河北港口集团合作， 该集团运营河北省的几个主要港口，包括 唐山港、黄骅港和秦皇岛港。两个港口集 团已经成立了一家合资企业渤海天津-河 北港口投资和开发公司 (Bohai TianjinHebei Port Investment and Development Company)，以联合投资和运营港口码头。 香港的知名运输行业分析师 Charles De Trenck 指出，天津也许是过去十年间扩张 最为无节制的港口。 “15、10和5年前，它就使我震惊。”他 说。 中国南方的重组也正在进行之中。2014 年，福 建的厦门港和 漳州港已经 完 成合 并，2013年，广西的三个主要港口钦州港、 北海港和防城港已经全部重组为广西北部 湾港口集团。 当前最复杂和最困难的港口重组是在 中国东北地区。 在环渤海并不长的海岸线上，共有四个 主要的上市港口，即辽宁的大连港、锦州港

5,000

万 根据经合组织的数据，按照标 准集装箱(teu)计算，中国的港 口的多余容量

和营口港以及河北的秦皇岛港。 在2016年第一季度，辽宁省的GDP增长 在中国的所有省份中名列最后。东北地区 常常被称作中国的老旧工业区，这个区域 的经济衰退直接导致了地区内的航运需求 疲软，而港口为了自身的生存，也彼此展开 低价竞争。 政 府提议 成 立一家省级港口公司，自 2014年起统一运营所有港口，但迄今为止 尚无任何进展。 “辽宁的 港口正在 经 历 艰 难时刻，港 口之间的恶性竞争又让局势恶化。这些港 口存在太多重复容量和功能，让重组变得 更加困难。”大连海事大学交通运输管理 学院的院长，也是运输经济学家的 Lv Jing 说， “港口重组必须以合适的商业模式为 基 础，单纯由政 府 部门安排的 行政合并 不会成功。但商业重组的成本也非常高， 尤其是对于那些主要的港口资产来说，且 平衡每个地方政府的利益也很关键。”Lv 说。 上海国际航运研究中心 (SISI) 的 Zhao 对于 未 来 的 港口重 组有几 点 建 议：“ 首 先，应增强各当地政府之间的协调，他们 应该学习京津 冀协同发 展 规 划纲 要，其 次，应增强海岸资源管理，以监督和指导 港口容量。第三，应加强反不公平竞争法 规。” 来自英国咨询机构 Maritime Strategies International 的 James Frew，谈到如何对中 国明显过剩的港口容量进行纠正时，认为 中国要做出几个艰难的选择。 他说： “我不认为答案会简单”，引用了 相邻国家的釜山港扩张的问题。这座韩国 港口希望接收来自中国的转运货物，但实 际上由于中国港口容量的极大扩张，它转 运的货物量很小。 “中国各省政府都在支持他们本省的 港口，让局面更加复杂化。”Frew 认为， “ 比如说山东省，不会由于天津的市场份额 在扩大就将青岛的容量合理化。” 按照来自经合组织 Merk 的意见，两种 纠正方法将是放缓扩张计划并增强港口之 间的协调。 Merk 督促各方根据需求而不是政客的 雄心逐步引入新容量。 中央政府向日本寻求如何应对容量过剩 问题的建议，但 Merk 说，北京的高官们如 果从韩国取经，那么情况会糟糕更多，韩 国的国家港口政策为韩国港口系统中的每 一个港口都规定了专门用途。 无论决策到底是什么，似乎中国的港口 建设已经趋于波澜不惊。 SINOSHIP 2016

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