Sinoship Autumn Issue 2013 Chinese

om 日 在 s.c 每 更新 new 文 hip 中 inos s w. ww

2013年秋季刊

www.sinoshipnews.com

宏伟的联合 王靖：尼加拉瓜 运河背后的人

中国银行系统 的困境 退款担保和造 船业缩水 中国在自升平 台建造上超过 新加坡

ClassNK 伴随海事产业而成长 不断进取，积极应对 随着全球经济发展与结构转变，当今的海事产业正面临各种前所未有的挑战。 日本海事协会（简称ClassNK）注册船舶总吨约占世界商船总吨的20%，是全球 知名的船级社。我们充分理解海事产业的需求，并根据海事产业对安全航运的需 要，积极开展全新的服务与技术研发。在ClassNK主页上，您可以了解到更多我 们为保障各种船舶安全、防止海洋环境污染所作出的努力。www.classnk.or.jp

目录 ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 3 编者语 4 经济 7 班轮 9 船厂 11 离岸 12 金融 13 商品 14 物流 15 邮轮

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 16 王靖 17 褚敏 18 许遵武 19 王锦连

我认为无法将中国与创新联系 在一起 —Jesper Andresen, 首席执行官,Axis Offshore

中国的铁矿石产量会下降，但 进口量会上涨

13

— Jeffrey Landsberg,总裁, Commodore Research & Consultancy

中国货物运输迅速成长，加 上中国的生产密集产业持续转 移至内陆地区，提供了很大的 潜力 — Rüdiger Grube, 主席,Deutsche Bahn

■ ■ ■ 专题 21 码头 24 法律

26 注册

27 LNG

■ ■ ■ 枢纽

29 上海

30 台北 31 香港

11

14

巴拿马运河本身已经无法满 足21世纪的全球贸易要求

16

—王靖,董事长, 香港尼加拉瓜运河发展投资公司

主要货物煤的运量也在 下滑 —褚敏,董事长,宁波海运

■ ■ ■ 评论

17

32 书籍

小型和低端船厂的淘汰不可 避免

■ ■ ■ 意见

33 Andrew Craig-Bennett 34 Bei Hong

35 Graeme Sommerville-Ryan

19

— 王锦连，秘书长，中国船舶工业行业协会 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

1

RESPONDING TO

NEW REALITIES

Nov. 6th-8th, 2013 Ningbo, China Responding to New Realities

www.shippingsummit.com

The World Shipping (China) Summit 2013 will be held in Shangri-La Hotel, Ningbo, November 6 to 8, 2013. Centered upon the theme of “Responding to New Realities”, the Summit will once again provide a high-profile platform for leaders and shipping professionals to get together to discuss issues of the industry’s most pressing common concern and work out visionary and effective plans to address the current challenges faced by the industry to achieve healthy, sustainable and long-term development goals of the world’s shipping industry.

The Summit aims to encourage two-way communications and in-depth dialog among speakers, panelists, moderators and other participants. We intend to impress you with the our interesting discussion topics, the level of our speakers, the wisdom of our panelists, the participation of our audience, the design of our conference format, the diversity of our social networking programs and the depth of interactions among industry partners from the various events of the World Shipping (China) Summit 2013.

Speakers & VIPs(Confirmed) (From A to Z by first name) Mr. Arjun Batra / Mr. Bao Zhangjing / Mr. Bronson Hsieh / Mr. Eddy Bruyninckx / Mr. Emile Hoogsteden / Dr. Frank F. H. Lu / Mr. Gavin Carter / Mr. Jakob Stausholm / Mr. Li Jianhong / Mr. Li Shaode / Ms. Liu Xiaodan / Mr. Louis Tang / Mr. Ma Hongtao / Mr. Ma Zehua / Mr. Li Yunpeng / Mr. Mark Long / Mr. Nicholas Teller / Mr. Quentin

For further information, please log on website:

www.shippingsummit.com

contact

Soanes / Mr. Raymond Shing / Mr. Richard D. Pride / Mr. Richard Sadler / Mr.

Ms. Yanni Jiang; Miss Huilan Lan

Robert Lorenz-Meyer / Mr. Robin Silvester / Mr. Saeki Takashi / Mr. Steve Saxon /

At phone:

Mr. Sun Licheng / Mr. Tor Svensen / Mr. Wang Yingsheng / Dr. Wang Zuwen / Mr. Webster Shao / Mr. Xu Lirong / Mr. Xu Zunwu / Mr. Ye Weilong / Dr. Yu Shicheng / Mr. Zhang Dianbo / Mr. Zhang Shouguo / Mr. Zhao Anqing / Mr. Zhao Huxiang...

Organisers:

Honorary Organisers:

+86 10 6649 2676 or +86 10 6649 2793 Fax: +8610 6608 3892

Email: jiangyanni@cosco.com summit@cosco.com

编者语 ■ ■ ■

www.sinoshipnews.com ASM刊物 编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com 首席通讯记者 司湘

katherine@asiashippingmedia.com 通讯记者 姜浩

jason@asiashippingmedia.com 北京 上海 香港 大连 广州 台北

Li Deng Bai Engen Tham Alfred Romann Mark Downing Wang Fanglei David Green

供稿人

Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh 摄影

André Eichman, Basil Pao, 封面: HNA Group 所有编辑资料请发送至sam@asiashippingmedia.com 或邮寄到中国大连中山区人民路9号701办公室， 邮编116001 商务主管 Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com 中国销售主管 Tom Wu

sales@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip同时也在东京、首尔和奥斯陆设有广告 代理机构。欲获取当地代理联系信息请发送邮件 到grant@asiashippingmedia.com。 媒体信息可在www.asiashippingmedia.com下载。 所有商务资料请发送至grant@asiashippingmedia. com 或邮寄到Asia Shipping Media, 20 Cecil Street, #14-01 Equity Plaza, Singapore 049705。 设计 Lamma Studio Design 印刷 香港雅联印刷有限公司 订阅 总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取SinoShip 期 刊。对于 所 有 其 他 公司，订 阅 S i n o S h i p2 012 年 4 期 需 要 收 费10 0 美 元 。订 阅 每 月 发 行 两 次 的 P D F 格 式 的 S i n o S h i p电子 新 闻（包 含 独 家 新 闻 、数 据 和 分 析）需 收 费5 0 0 美 元。订 阅 咨 询 请发 送 邮 件 到 su b s@ asiashippingmedia.com。 版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2013 为确保 本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努 力，但出版社 对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何 责任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不 得对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以 任何形式或方式传输。

干散货船之熊市来临 上月我们参加Marine Money于新加坡举行 的活动，适值海岬型船舶开始提高获利，每 日盈余达40,000美元。参与活动的船东态 度一片乐观，最近有大量干散货订单签订， 就是最佳佐证。但是当时，甚至是现在，我 都没有那么乐观。这与船运业生产力过剩 的问题没有太大关系，问题反而在于生产 力过剩，加上主要客户中国钢铁厂的需求 减少。 当然，对船运业来说，熊市比牛市来得 轻松。撰写本文时，波罗的海干散货指数已 回落至2,000点以下，但我的看法是，中国钢 铁业若不经过一番痛苦的重整，恐怕很难 回升。 让我们看看现实的情况。传统上，中国 佳，甚至比巴拿马型船舶好得多。根据台 湾的元大宝来证券近期预测，海岬型船舶 炼钢厂一向都在9月补充库存。 今年办货的规模可能比过去数年更大， 的年度载货量明年会从今年的8.7%下降至 因为现金紧凑的炼钢厂在夏季产量比平时 5.7%，跟过去四年相比，全年载货量下降了 少。中国各口岸的存货比去年减少四分之一。 15至20%。然而，由于海岬型船舶的船东仍 但这可能是最后一次见到如此大规模的办 然依赖中国炼钢厂，我认为我们还未脱离逆 货，也就是最后的一声欢呼。中国的钢铁业 境，9月的急速上升是霎那的光辉，而非新 情况极为恶劣，86间最大型炼钢厂合共负 一轮的增长循环。 债4,900亿美元。 由于利润微薄（上半年86间最大型炼钢厂 合共22亿人民币），这些炼钢厂支付银行的 利息总数达406亿人民币。我不是数学家， 但是这个数据显然入不敷支。 然后打击来了，权力机关国务院认为，国 内炼钢厂对本地银行造成太大压力，北京 已采取行动，下令银行削减贷款给生产过 剩的产业，其中以炼钢业的减幅最大。据一 份当地报纸估计，每年生产过剩的钢材有2 亿吨。（我不得不说，船运及造船业亦被北 Sam Chambers Editor 京点名，指为膨胀与效率差。） sam@asiashippingmedia.com 不错，海岬型船舶的供求平衡较以往为 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

3

■ ■ ■ 经济

缓慢复苏 Paul French 指出，有关出现经济危机的预言在确凿的数据面前不攻自破 尽 管 航 运 双关语可能使 SinoShip负担过重，但实际情 况是中国经济在整个夏天保 持“稳步发展”。持更谨慎态 度的分析师警告称，切勿依 赖月度数据或波动较大的数据 进行过度推断，而是鼓励我们 利用同比增减数据进行分析。 如果过于看重月度数据，就会 遭受里昂证券新兴市场 (CLSA Emerging Market)的中国市场 宏观策略师AndyRothman所称 的“无情打击”，即月度经济 数据上扬并不意味着经济复 苏，而月度经济数据低迷也并 不意味着经济危机迫在眉睫。 前文已经说过，最可靠的 数据表明7月经济走势转好。 船东们在了解以下消息后一 定会如释重负：与他们业务 有关的关键指标—工业附加 值和发电量、铁矿石和铜进 口量—均出现大幅增长。其 中，汽车和电机/设备产量的 增长格外突出。发电量同比增 长8.1%（为 2013 年迄今为止 的最高月度增幅），表明生产 活动有所增加，因此今年下半 年进出口量有望大幅增长，从 而需要船只开展运输。零售额 小幅回落，不过并未对政府关 于将提振内需作为发展整个国 民经济的重要组成部分的政策 方针造成较大影响。 今年下半年，物价上涨有 望在一定程度得到缓解—通 胀有望保持温和态势，而工业 输入和输出价格小幅回落可能 表明内需更为坚挺，同时随着 欧美经济复苏，出口需求将再 次上扬。7月出口增长出现强 4

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2013年第一季度中国各行业的GDP增长情况

国内生产总值 第一产业 - 农林牧渔 第二产业 - 工业 - 建筑业 第三产业 - 交通运输、仓储和邮政 - 批发和零售业 - 酒店和餐饮业 - 金融中介服务 - 房地产 - 其他

绝对值

同比增长率

（单位：1亿元人民币）

(%)

118854.8 7427.0 7427.0 54569.3 48832.5 5736.8 56858.6 6563.4 11913.9 2418.8 8098.5 8382.9 19481.0

7.7 3.4 3.4 7.8 7.5 9.8 8.3 7.0 10.5 4.5 11.5 7.8 6.8

资料来源：NBS

势反弹，增幅高达5.1%，不过 整体出口情况仍然相对疲软， 年内难有较大改观。 在此情况下，有理由询问 哪个经济领域的复苏最为强 劲，以及哪个领域有望在全中 国乃至全球范围内运送物资？ 值得高兴的是，中国制造业中 的私营部门目前对于提振经济 起到了主要作用—今年迄今 为止，民营中小企业 (SME)利 润增长了15.8%；而国有企业 (SOE) 利润则增长了4.8%。与 国营经济相比，私营经济的增 速显然更快，从全球经济危机 所造成的不利影响中复苏的速 度也更快。此外，民营中小企 业还从旨在减轻其税务负担的 现行增值税(VAT)体系改革中

受益匪浅。财政部统计数据表 明，2012年试行的增值税改革 使涉及的民营中小企业的纳税 额平均减少40%。明年，增值 税改革将向全国推广。 因此，货物运输量有所增 长。6月货运总量同比增长 10.5%，而5月和4月的增幅分 别为9.6%和7.9%；6月吨-千米 总运量增长5.8%，而5月和4月 的增幅分别为-0.8%和-0.4%。 卡车司机不停运送货物。

政府一定会对有关经济仍在稳 步增长的说法感到非常欣慰， 并有理由认为这种稳步增长的 态势与逐渐成熟和日益复杂的 经济发展趋势相符。中国政府 已经明确表态今年将不会推出 任何经济刺激政策。政府实施 的种种举措—从收拾国内航 班延误造成的混乱局面到整肃 医药行业的腐败丑闻—表明 政府正在对行业的长期重组工 作排定优先顺序，以市场为导

私营经济的增速高于国营经济 因此，就目前看，我们预计 今年中国的GDP增幅在7.5%到 8%之间，基本与去年持平。

向的改革是当今的主旋律，而 以往以经济刺激形式发放一次 性补贴的作法已经落伍。

Fuel Cost Reduction.

Energy Efficiency by GL. You need to keep your costs low in tense market conditions, which are characterised by decreasing charter rates and increasing fuel prices. We supply energy-saving solutions for every ship in your fleet. Whether you need newbuilding consultancy, design improvement or retrofitting, or more efficient operational measures, our FutureShip-experts are there for you. www.futureship.de · www.efficiency-class.com · www.gl-group.com

班轮 ■ ■ ■

闭的命运。长航油运宣布2013 年上半年录得净亏损7.28亿人 民币。该公司已于今年稍早暂 停股票交易，并且可能明年公 布全年业绩之后退出上海证券 交易所。中外运长航集团已 与中国石化商讨挽救公司的 对策。

中远集团宣布由马泽华（图）接 替魏家福出任公司董事长，公 司准备出售优质资产以图扭亏 转盈，避免退出上海交易所的 可能性。其中出售的资产包括 物业、中远物流及中国国际海运 集装箱（中集）集团全部股份。 四面楚歌的长航凤凰如果不能 撑到今年年底，可能会成为中 国第一个被退市的国营企业。 多间银行及其姐妹公司均向法 院提出要求冻结这家国内船运 公司的资产，该公司早前已出 售多艘船只，并裁员数千名， 以避免沦为清盘的命运。 中国海运在今年9月通过中海 集装箱运输（香港）成功发出 第一期美元商业票据，并筹集 了8500万美元资金。同时，中 海发展将公司的石油运输业务 重组，成立运输油品的全资附 属公司。

来宝集团（Noble Group）前 副主席Harry Banga（图）宣 布斥资10亿美元成立一间新 船运公司Caravel集 团。Caravel将专注于投资管 理活动、战略性资产所有权 和干散货原料的运送及储 存。总部设在香港的Caravel 希望未来12个月内购买12艘 船，并获得100艘船舶的许 可证 天津海运变更公司控制权，使 海航物流成为该公司的主要控 股股东。天津海运计划透过非 公开发行A股股票集资，用于 订购10艘超大型油轮和4艘液 化天然气运输船。 中外运长航集团采取行动，尝 试挽救子公司长航油运免于倒

Trucking consolidation Exclusive repair data SPRING 2013

海南泛洋航运在9月下旬暂停 全部航线。集装箱部门的管 理高层要求当地政府协助重 组。中海集团前董事长李克 麟已于今年上半年辞去董事 长一职。苏信吉拥有的台湾 海陆运输（TMT）在美国休斯 顿法庭的一连串案件当中， 获得宝贵的喘息空间。台湾 海陆运输尝试要求根据美国

南京恒瑞船务公司老板潜 逃，下落不明。该公司欠债 高达1亿元人民币，船员也近 半年没领到工资。恒瑞船务 拥有11艘船舶的船队，包括 散货船和集装箱船，总运力 10万载重吨，主要经营国内 航运路线。 安徽省最大的民营船运公司芜 湖石硊江海轮船公司最近倒 闭，一如恒瑞船务（上则新 闻），该公司老板亦已潜逃。 芜湖石硊江海轮船公司成立于 1989年，运营近100艘船舶， 主要经营长江一带的国内散货 运输。

慧洋海运计划成为第一家在伦 敦上市的台湾公司。在伦敦证 券交易所上市的申请预计于2014 年之前完成。目前，该公司经 营一支91艘船舶的船队，至2013 年年底将会新增三艘新船。

t om ily s a s.c Da ate pnew d hi up nos i w.s ww

Eye on jack-up rigs

今年9月，海航集团旗下的中 国第一艘豪华邮轮海娜号 （图）在韩国济州岛码头遭到 扣留。当时江苏沙钢船务以海 航集团关係企业欠的5,800万美 元债务纠纷为由，向法院申请 扣留海娜号。

第十一章法规，重组业务， 让公司在财政困难期

www.sinoshipnews.com

Wah Kwong

Sabrina Chao takes the chair

接触正确客户群体的机会 大中华区每一家主要船东和造船厂都在读这本杂志 Project shippers focus on Africa

第三期杂志的主题包括港口,法律和液化天然气

Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism head speaks Hosco’s Gao Yangming: China’s scrapping champion E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

广告咨询请联系 grant@asiashippingmedia.com

Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

7

Posidonia 2014 2-6 June 2014

Metropolitan Expo , Athens Greece

it's a great deal The International Shipping Exhibition

Organisers: Posidonia Exhibitions SA, e-mail: posidonia@posidonia-events.com

www.posidonia-events.com

船厂 ■ ■ ■

大批航运业繁盛时代的船厂相继停工集体关闭

昔日船厂魅影 北京特派记者Li Dong探讨中国政府如何利用退款担保整顿造船业 走进中国 东南部城市台州， 感觉有如进入阴森鬼域。在航 运业蓬勃发展的年代，这里 曾经坐落了大量新船厂，但现 在触目所及，只有静止不动的 巨型吊臂，船厂入口被砖墙堵 住，失业率急升。船舶市场出 现钟摆式的大逆转，位于浙江 省的台州自然难以独善其身， 全市190间造船厂之中接近八 成已关门或濒临结业边缘。 北京政府借退款担保整顿 过度膨胀的造船业，汰弱留 强。这个变化在今年已明确浮 现，政策倾向于扶持大型国有 船厂，不利于小型民营船厂， 而台州的造船厂多半规模偏 小。中国造船业规模迅速缩 减，让许多船东松了一口气。 以中国进出口银行（Cexim） 和国家开发银行为首的各家银 行，现时对审批退款担保均十 分审慎，尤其是对一些小型民 营船厂。银行变得审慎的原因之 一，是曾经有银行因为船厂未

能履行责任而须向船东支付一 般高达8至9%的利息，前车可 鉴。此外也有政策的因素，政府 大力鼓吹不要支持效率差、老 是亏损的行业，并特别以航运 业为例。而对不被看好的船厂 不予支持的最简单的方法就是 确保银行不向他们批出退款担 保，因为没有退款担保，船厂就 不能接订单。 优质船厂（主要是国有企 业和少数大型私人船厂）依然 能够轻而易举地获得退款担 保，但小型船厂却困难重重。 一位香港船东告诉 SinoShip

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今年中国船厂 仅百分之四 接获订单

他的看法： “任何限制中国造船 产能的政策都对市场有利。” 中国在造船方面的产能颇 令人担心。虽然以2013年的订 单来看，中国已经比韩国和日 本为多，但是国内1,600家造 船厂却只有不到五分之一签订 新合约。 路透社的数据显示，今年 上半年，60间国营或民营船厂 瓜分了来自国内外总值约105 亿美元的造船合约，总量达到 2,120万载重吨。 对少数受到眷顾的船厂来 说，下半年的订单依然活跃， 但其余船厂的订单不是已经取 消，就是即将枯竭。中国船舶 工业行业协会估计，国内现有 的1,600家船厂到2015年将会 淘汰掉一半。 今年8月，中国国务院颁布 了一项为期三年的计划，协助 陷入困境的造船业转型升级， 鼓励造船厂发展高附加值的 船舶。

中国船舶工业行业协会 （CANSI）副秘书长聂丽娟表 示：“未来几年，造船业会将 注意力集中在结构调整和技术 提升上，一方面控制低端船舶 供应量过剩的问题，另一方面 提升造船技术，生产高附加值 的船舶。” 面对恶劣的造船市场，中国 政府将提供减税政策及技术支 持等优惠方案，协助“有能力 的”船厂发展更绿色的船舶。 “有能力的船厂将可获得发 展环保船舶的税收优惠和技术 支持。”国家发展和改革委员会 官员陈斌说。 他补充说，政策扶持的优先 项目包括海洋工程产品及更多 元化的中国船厂产品。 货币是中国船厂面对的另一 个困难。中国船舶工业行业协 会最近在一份报告中指出，人 民币升值、日元和韩元贬值，使 中国造船厂失去价格优势。更 多船厂鬼城将出现。 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

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我们是亚洲最大的独立海洋船舶经纪及 海事咨询集团之一 我们的服务包括 M3 MARINE 离岸经纪 • 租船 （定期租船和光船租赁） • 销售和采购 （包括新造船） M3 MARINE 专业服务 • 市场调研 • 船舶估价 • 项目分析 • 专家鉴证 • FMEA 制作&审计 • DP咨询/年度DP Trials • IMCA CMID和 潜水系统审核 • 预购调查检验 • 海事人才安置 • 技术/商业 尽职调查 专家们为您的海洋船舶需求增添技术及商业竞争力

离岸 ■ ■ ■

自升式钻井平台 在Marine Money举办的新加坡会议上，Sam Chambers了解到中国的自升式钻井平 台制造如何在价格低廉、积极的融资条款以及提前交付方面已经超越新加坡 Religicare Capital Markets 的研究表明，中国已建钻探平 台数量在可用档期、低价和大 手 笔 融 资 方 面 远 超 新 加 坡， 因此，今年对于中国海工业务 的 野心而 言是富 有 重 大 意 义 的一年。Religicare总监Vincent Fe r n a n d o 今 年 9月在 M a r i n e Money召开的新加坡会议上说 道，今 年迄今为止中国在钻井 平台 领 域占 有 3 4 % 的 市 场 份 额，新加坡则占 23%，这是中国 首次在这个领域超越狮城。韩 国依然位居首位，拥有 41% 的 市场份额。 Fernando说， “2013年，中国 将取代新加坡的市场地位。” 他承认，这一巨大变化远快于 预期。 中国船厂提供非常诱人的付 款条件—只需支付 10% 的首 付款即可，而新加坡最低也要 求支付 28% 的首付款。 据报道，中国的自升式钻井 平台价格约比新加坡低 30%。

“中国船厂并不在意短期 利润。他们只是想让市场向中 国转移，”Fernando如是说， 并指出它们主要为国营企业， 因此资金雄厚。 这已经开始影响到新加坡 造船企业的财务状况，吉宝和 胜科都表示来自中国的竞争影 响了它们最新季报的利润率。 “新加坡船厂利润率走低 的情况会更糟，”Fernando警 告称。 Clifford Capital 市场开发与 结构性产品主管 Audra Low 警 告说，新加坡船厂会“很难” 向那些不以追求利润为出发点 的船厂发起挑战。

“在中国建造船舶更加艰 难。中国并不适合所有人，” 他说，并建议在中国订购船舶 的船东需要具备丰富的造船经 验以及强大的地面团队。他还 指出，很少有船厂尝试创新设 计。“我认为无法将中国与创 新联系在一起，”他说。 然而，有些中国船厂现在 能提供更高规格的钻井平台。 例如大连船舶重工(DSIC) 现在 精通制造 JU2000E 型产品，而 南通中远和中集来福士则在建 造圆柱型钻井平台方面颇有建 树。小组成员也将上海外高桥 造船有限公司 (SWS) 评为顶尖 钻井平台制造商。

中国船厂并不在意短期利润 A xis Of fshore首席执行官 Jesper Andresen说，尽管中国船 厂突然实现了飞跃，但质量依 然是个大问题。

不能将今年惊人逆转简单的 归因于价格。Pareto Securities Asia 董事总经理Aksel Olesen认为投 资者仍然对新加坡青睐有加，但

30%

中国与新加坡的自升 式钻井平台存在 30% 以上的价差 问题在于这个土地资源有限的 东南亚国家的船厂最早只能在 2016 年提供档期，而中国在2015 年还有空余。 Fernando赞同这一观点，并 称： “新加坡船厂在土地容量方 面没有竞争力。” Olesen 认为： “未来数年，中 国船厂将占据主导地位。” 中国领先的海工领域企业还 会从新加坡和韩国挖来人才， 以提高自身实力。 DV B银行副总裁Jens T a u b k e n 则 带 来了“ 一 线 希 望”，他说，新加坡的钻井平台 在转让时售价更高。 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 金融

中国银行业的两难境地︰ 保持稳定与维持信贷的抉择 Paul French亲身前往湖北，考察中国银行业是否有如外界传言般出现走资情况 中 国 银 行 业从表面看来相 当健全，发布了创纪录的盈 利，借贷情况健康，存贷比 维持正数，但很多分析师却 质疑，中国银行业内部已出 现问题。 最近一趟前往中国中部 省份湖北的行程当中，我和 宜昌市的银行家们进行了交 流，这个城市，正在从很多 方面实践中国国家主席习近 平所提出的“中国梦”，推 行大量政府投资项目，而以 制造业和医疗保健为主的民 营经济也相当蓬勃。虽然一 切看起来很美好，但银行家 们却比满怀希望的老百姓多 了一份谨慎。中国为刺激经 济于2009年推出的9.6万亿人 民币（1.568万亿美元）信贷 计划，为当地提供了大量资 金。国有银行提供宽松的信 贷，为大批因三峡水利工程 而被迁徙到当地的人口创造 就业机会。大规模放贷推动 了经济增速，但银行家们相 信，不论是刺激措施或私人 放贷所产生的坏帐问题，假 以时日终将呈现在银行的损 益表上。

有创纪录的利润，但令人忧心的 崩溃近在眼前 这正是中国银行业的两难 局面，虽然盈利依然创纪录， 却潜藏着崩溃的危机。中国市 值最大的信贷机构工商银行正 是最佳的例子，2009年以来的 净利虽然增长了八成，但同一 时期的坏帐减计却达到两成。 北京当局认为外国分析师的 看法过于悲观，强调中国银行

业依然稳健而充满活力，中国 十年前所遭遇的上一次银行业 危机显示，拯救银行体系的成 本惊人，但风险依然在可控制 的范围。 那些看到杯子里只有半杯水 的人认为，信贷增长速度快于违 约情况，因此债务仍属可控。这 意味着资金虽然以创纪录的速

中国的银行—2009至2013年的存款与借贷（人民币万亿）

金融机构存款额 金融机构贷出额 来源：中国国家统计局

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www.sinoshipnews.com

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 59.8 71.8 80.9 91.7 103.7 40.0 47.9 54.8 63.0 72.4

* 预估数字

度贷出，但借贷者的生意营运 良好，尚有能力按时还款。但银 行信贷数据往往滞后于经济数 据，随着中国经济放缓，信贷违 约情况在未来数月或数年将随 着经济放缓而上升。一家中资 经纪行估计，不良贷款（NPLS） 规模可能较现在的5,000亿人民 币大幅增加七倍。庞大的潜在 坏帐，很可能耗掉银行业八万 亿资本额的五成。 尽管中国银行业的盈利看起 来仍保持增长，并且维持正常 放贷，但鉴于未来的不良贷款 增长情况，现在到底是不是进 入中国金融业的好时机？相信 很多分析师会认为需要谨慎观 察。虽然北京当局表面上对于 银行坏帐情况并不感到担忧， 但坊间却有不少传闻，暗示当 局正在筹划一系列金融体系改 革措施，以解决债务增长所带 来的风险。虽然外界对于中国 的债务实际情况掌握并不多，但 相信与地方政府债，以及社保 和健保相关债务有关。分析师 们同时也预期，为了扶助出口企 业应对去杠杆化的困境，货币 贬值将随之而来。这意味着在 不久的将来，减息和货币贬值 的情况将会发生。简单而言，这 将有助于稳定部份领域的负债 情况，为银行体系的债务风险 降温，但也意味着未来银行业 的信贷增长将有所放缓。 同时，这将给放贷和借贷 双方构成两难局面，稳定是好 的，也有助于维护市场信心， 却会进一步拖慢信贷增长， 进而影响经济增长。

商品 ■ ■ ■

海峡型船舶运价飙升 中的钢铁业 Mark Downing 设法了解海峡型船舶运价突然飙升的原因 中 国 现 在 是世界第一大钢材 消费国和生产国，其在过去十 年中的钢产量超过了过去六十 年的总和。但随着经济发展渐 趋成熟，政府实施改革并重复 使用废钢；全球铁矿石产能激 增，严重供过于求，导致中国的 需求正逐渐减弱。目前，补货导 致海峡型船舶运价猛增，但这 种局面不会持续太久。 目前，中国消耗着全球海 运铁矿石贸易量的三分之二， 而这些铁矿石主要来自三大生 产商必和必拓、力拓和淡水河 谷。由于规模经济促使生产成 本大幅降低至每吨30–50美 元，目前几大主要矿石生产商 的利润率均超过 60%。但小型 矿产生产商和新入行的公司成 本在100美元左右，面临较大 的价格波动风险。尽管如此， 由于工人和资本短缺，且挖掘 富矿的难度越来越大，所有生 产商的采矿成本可能会继续 飙升。 十年前，中国的矿石进口量 仅为6,900万吨，但去年该数字 达到了创纪录的7.43亿吨。按 同比增长率近8.4%计算，2013 年中国矿石进口量将突破8 亿 吨大关，据必和必拓和力拓透 露，2012年中国钢材消耗量为 9.1亿吨，有望于2030年达到10 亿吨的峰值。 十年间，铁矿石价格暴涨 十倍，并于2011年受中国政府 经济刺激计划的提振达到每 吨 190美元的历史高点，随后 则趋于平缓。去年秋天经济疲 软使得铁矿石价格下降到了三 年来的低点，即每吨85美元左 右，但由于钢铁厂去库存化水 平过高，导致价格回升至每吨 130美元。路透社在7月开展的 调查结果显示，今年的预计平 均价格为每吨126美元；高盛 预测到 2015年，海运总量回落 约2亿吨时，平均价格可能下

热门行业 今年中国钢产量增长 10%

降到80美元。 “来自澳大利亚和巴西 的大量新铁矿石将上线，这 会对铁矿石现货价格构成压 力，”Commodore Research & Consultancy总裁Jeffrey Landsberg对SinoShip表示。 “多余的铁矿石未来会使铁 矿石价格长期低于每吨120美 元，使得中国小型铁矿石厂商 面临价高无市的局面。这意味 着中国的铁矿石产量会下降， 但进口量会上涨，从而有利于 海峡型船舶市场。” 价格暴涨推动大型矿业公司 全力以赴扩大产能。三大矿业 公司以及 Fortescue的年产能有 望到年底达到 9.45 亿吨，新一 轮产能扩张后，可能很快将达 到10亿吨。但是摩根士丹利估 计，这些新产能在进入市场时 刚好遇到需求骤降，可能会使 明年面临产能过剩330万吨的 局面。

“ 中 长 期 来 看，我 们 十 分 看 淡 铁矿 石 价 格 。 然 而 ， 由 于国内产量下降，海运量可 能会维持高位。我们预计几 年后价格会低于100美元，” 香港来宝集团租船部主管 Raghu Raghunath 说。

$490bn 中国 86 家顶尖 钢铁厂共计负债 4,900亿美元

泰国 珍 宝 航 运公司董 事总 经理Khalid Hashim就9月海峡 型船舶船运收益激增发表了看 法，他认为中国铁矿石的补货周 期和数量比许多人预计的要更 长、更大。Hashim说，中国港口 库存同比下降25%，而钢产量

则同比上涨 10%。 然而，由于中国的出口导向 型制造业增长放缓，中国实施 限制性政策，试图缩减房地产 和基础设施投资，迫使钢铁厂 表面上因“保护环境”而关闭， 但更有可能是因为背负了巨额 债务。此外，金融服务公司麦格 理集团（Macquarie）的资料显 示，废钢使用量与日俱增，目前 达到每年1.2亿吨的峰值，这可 能会进一步抑制需求。 由于富有潜力的替代市场数 量不多，因此铁矿石市场前景 暗淡。考虑到未来15年城市化 进程有望翻番，因此有人建议 印度可以成为替代市场，但印 度本国的大量储备足以满足其 未来需求。 从长远看，中国仍将是最大 的铁矿石市场，但需求增长却 与其地位不符，同时由于实施 供给限制，会形成新一轮的商 品价格泡沫。 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 物流

现代丝路 Jason Jiang带你前往一探最新的中欧洲际铁路

多个中国 内陆城市重回丝路 时代，以数千公里铁轨连接中 华人民共和国与欧洲。然而， 除了低廉的集装箱运费和各铁 路线的经济之外，洲际铁路的 发展仍然受到回程空车的限 制，到目前为止尚未找到开发 路线的意义。尽管如此，许多 城市并未因此裹足不前，纷纷 投入这股建造铁路热潮。 其中最主要的洲际铁路线 是渝新欧国际铁路，从重庆出 发，穿越阿拉山口进入哈萨克 斯坦，然后再经由俄罗斯，白 俄罗斯和波兰，最后抵达德国 杜伊斯堡。渝新欧国际铁路于 去年已正式通车。 有了这段新铁路线，现在 从中国运送货物前往欧洲心脏 地带平均只需16天，比起从中 国东岸出发的海运航线缩短20 天。除此之外，重庆到欧洲只 需进行一次报关及审查，对货 主来说更加便利。 一位任职渝新欧国际物流 的管理层表示：“渝新欧铁路 的开通，改变了传统对外贸 易的模式，以前依赖东海岸城 市，现在重庆已成为出口货物 到欧洲的重要中转站。” 中国最大的内陆物流港项目 重庆果园港，已于8月开始试运 营。这个耗资100亿人民币的项 目按年可处理3,000万吨货物。 港口目前正在施工兴建一条连 接重庆至欧洲的铁路线，预计 2014年完工，到时将会成为长 江通往欧洲的重要门户。 虽然目前重庆的进出口只 14

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从郑州运送长途集装箱至汉堡比海运缩短25天

有4%使用铁路运输，另外海 运占93%、空运占3%，但是与 2010年仅0.6%相比，渝新欧铁 路的货运量已经急剧增加。 “我们正在尝试在回程吸 引更多货物运输，这样可以降 低物流成本，使这条铁路线持 续发展，因为现在我们多半必 须利用海运将空集装箱运回国 内，这是一种资源的浪费。” 该管理层人士说。 中国和白俄罗斯在7月宣布了 一项合作计划，建立一系列战略 合作伙伴关系，包括中国—白 俄罗斯工业园区，这将是一个 加 强 贸 易和 投 资 的 特 别 经 济 区。中国正在白俄罗斯首都明斯 克附近的森林内兴建一整座城 市，作为欧盟和俄罗斯之间的制 造据点。该项目预计今年11月开 工，兴建成本总计预估50亿美 元，其中六成由中国投资，白俄 罗斯负责其余 部分。目前一些 欧洲物流公司已经着眼建设工 业园区至波罗的海的转运点。

至于另一个位于中国中部 的新兴商业中心和物流中心郑 州，也在7月开通至汉堡的欧 洲铁路服务。 德国铁路（Deutsche Bahn） 的运输与物流子公司德铁信可 （DB Schenker），是该铁路的 主要外国合作伙伴。该公司通 过中亚和东欧的服务网络，提 供列车离开中国后的轨道接驳 及技术支援。 德国铁路主席Rüdiger Grube

时至今年年底，将有另 外三个铁路货运服务加入郑 州—欧洲货运航线。河南省 的托运人将可通过这条路线运 货到哈萨克斯坦的阿拉木图、 莫斯科和立陶宛的克莱佩达。 郑州官员表示，运输一个 集装箱到汉堡的海运运费为 5,000美元，铁路运输的费用 是7,000美元，但时间却快了 25天，而空运费用则约是铁路 的4.5倍。 另外，中国和波兰的合资 企业成都亚欧班列物流（YHF Logistics）自今年4月也在成都 推出了一种新的铁路货运服 务，每周提供从成都穿越哈萨 克斯坦、俄罗斯和白俄罗斯至 波兰中部城市罗兹的服务。该 公司计划每日均提供服务。 辽宁沈阳也开通了前往欧 洲的铁路服务。 然而，并非每项服务都能 够有效运行。连接武汉和捷克 共和国中部城市帕尔杜比采的 铁路线，去年10月首次行驶之

中国货物运输迅速成长，加上中 国的生产密集产业持续转移至内陆 地区，提供了很大的潜力 说： “中国货物运输迅速成长， 加上中国的生产密集产业持续 转移至内陆地区，提供了很大 的潜力。”他补充说德铁信可有 计划根据需求扩充服务， “我们 的目标是提供每日服务。”

后旋即暂停，原因是通关手续 过于复杂以及成本相对较高。 尽管发生种种挫折，但是 中国还有更多城市，包括西 安、营口和苏州都正在计划成 立中欧的铁路路线。

邮轮 ■ ■ ■

长江的呼唤 Katherine Si细数中国最长河流的邮轮历史 长江之旅 是旅游中国的经典 行程之一，如今这段行程基础 设施完善，更胜从前。中国有 句古老谚语说：“如果没去过 浩瀚的长江，就不能算是来过 中国。” 这条世界第三大河发源自 青藏高原的青海，在境内蜿蜒 6,418公里，将中国大陆分为 南北，最后从上海以北汇入 东海。 事实上，真正的长江邮轮之 旅一直到邓小平时代才出现。 第一代长江邮轮之旅以1981 年首航的神女号为代表。 令人叹为观止的三峡大坝疏 浚工程，从前期准备工作到竣 工，经历了近三十年发展，2009 年9月首航的维多利亚凯珍号 驶入长江领域，迎来了豪华邮

轮旅游的新时代，现在长江已 经成为大型邮轮的落脚点。 至2015年底，三峡地区将以 五年时间、耗资1,216亿人民币 发展邮轮旅游的基础设施。 作为长江邮轮起点，山城重 庆正紧锣密鼓准备迎接更多游 客莅临。该市计划至2020年投 资约20亿人民币建造两座新邮 轮母港。 过去两年里，我们看到许多 内河邮轮投入营运，单单过去 12个月已有8艘新的大型邮轮开 始服务。 重庆市旅游局的数据显 示，去年有40艘大型内河邮轮 行驶长江路线，客运量达到 493,000人。 重庆市旅游局副局长王定国 说： “经过一段缓慢成长的阶段

经过一段缓慢成长的阶段之后， 近两年我们已经看到许多新邮轮 投入营运

之后，近两年我们已经看到许 多新邮轮投入营运。”不过，他 也表示这一市场的发展并未达 到某些人士的预期。 在全球主要内河邮轮旅游市 场当中，长江邮轮之旅的航程 最长，但邮轮数量却无法与其 他地区相提并论。 尽管 如 此，长 江 邮 轮 业 却

面临了产能过剩的问题。由于 全球经济疲弱，国外游客的人 数随之减少，国内游客的大幅 增长导致服务质量下降。豪华 邮轮乘客人数在过去18个月锐 减，因此专家建议长江上的新 邮轮应该将眼光放远一点，考 虑开发如日本、韩国和东南亚 国家等国际航线。

邮轮码头亏损连连 根据中国交通运输协会邮轮游艇分会的数据显示，过度自信 的中国邮轮业在各地都出现了红色负数的窘境。尽管产业形势 一片大好，但是中国五大邮轮码头的实际业绩都出现了亏损。 该分会常务副会长郑炜航指出，中国目前有五个邮轮码头， 两个在上海，另外三个分别在天津、厦门和三亚。虽然邮轮 乘客和航程近年来都有增加，但是这些码头都处于亏损的状 态。 郑副会长进一步提出警告，他说许多城市如大连、青岛、海 口和南京都加快脚步兴建邮轮码头，此举将会使市场陷入严 重的产能过剩，让亏损状况雪上加霜。

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■ ■ ■ 人物专访

运河计划背后的人 电信业巨头王靖有雄心建造一条通过尼加拉瓜的水路。Jason Jiang报道我们的独家封面故事

中

国公司在最近轻易接手了大 量的不大不小的基础设施建 设项目，然而，王靖在尼加 拉瓜建设一条跨洋运河的计 划代表了21世纪以来最大的建设挑战。 年轻神秘的王靖通过宣布建造一条抗 衡巴拿马运河的新运河的计划占据了这个 夏天各个媒体的头条。关于他的背景以及 他如何获得财富我们不得而知。然而，在 与SinoShip的独家采访中，他很乐意谈及 他的新的巨型计划，尼加拉瓜运河。 几百年前在这个中美洲国家建设运河 的计划就已经存在了。西班牙的菲利普二 世国王已经早在1567年就提出了这个想法 并做了研究。 今年六月，尼加拉瓜国会批准了授予 在香港新成立的香港尼加拉瓜运河发展投 资公司（HKND）50年的尼加拉瓜运河的 特许经营权。该经营权可再续50年。尼加 拉瓜政府预计建设该运河将使该国的国内 生产总值在2014年增长10.8%，到2015年 增长15%。 HKND的董事长王靖，同时也是信威通 信的董事长以及最大持股人，2012年在尼 加拉瓜获准经营手机通信以及因特网服 务。他说建设运河的想法是一次在该国投 标电信项目时偶然产生的。 王靖认为从目前到2030年，全球海运 贸易量将增长240%，船舶也在向大型化 发展。从1996年至今，世界最大的集装箱 船已经扩大近三倍，他认为目前的航运经 济形势也预示着该趋势将继续。 “鉴于目前的贸易以及船舶规模的发 展趋势，很显然巴拿马运河本身已经无法 满足21世纪的全球贸易要求，”王靖说。 “所以，开发建设一个更宽阔以及更 深的跨洋运河以支持更大的载重量并提高 效率已成为当务之急，”他接着说道。

开发建设一个更宽 阔以及更深的跨洋运 河已成为当务之急 HKND已经组建了一个全球专家团队来 研究此大型项目的方方面面。最近香港的 分析师Charles de Trenck，也加入了这个 团队。 HKND计划在2014年底破土动工建设该 运河，建设将耗时五年。 该运河的路线将从太平洋上的布里托 港开始，穿过尼加拉瓜湖，最终抵达加勒 16

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比海一侧的布鲁菲尔兹。 该项目预计投资400亿美元，全场240 公里的运河长度是巴拿马运河的三倍半。 同时巴拿马运河目前也耗资50亿美金正在 进行扩张。 王靖并不担心尼加拉瓜运河将比巴拿 马运河更长的事实。“尼加拉瓜运河将是 巴拿马运河补充。尼加拉瓜运河将接受无 法通过巴拿马运河的大型船只，”他说， 同时补充说由于尼加拉瓜运河位于巴拿马 运河北部数百公里，尼加拉瓜运河将为大 型船舶提供一个比绕行合恩角更短更有效 率的路线。 尽管王靖显然是富裕的，其400亿美 元的水路梦想也是巨大的。他仍然在运 河的资金来源方面守口如瓶，他总结 说：“我们已经在融资方面取得了良好

的进展，但在这一点上，谈进一步的细 节还为时过早。”

HKND

成立于今年，香港尼加拉瓜运河 发展投资公司计划在这个中美洲 国家建造一条240公里的与巴拿马 运河抗衡的水路。公司由北京电 信巨头王靖领衔，预计建设耗资 400亿美元。

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

消除赤字 现在正是中国国内散货贸易的困难时期。宁波海运的董事长褚敏谈到市场形势以及如何避免最坏的情形

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国大型沿海散货船东之一，宁 波海运，正在以谨慎的方式处 理生意。该公司去年由能源公 司浙江能源收购，目前正在精 简船队以使公司回归盈利。 浙江能源称公司准备在未来五年内将旗 下两家航运子公司富兴海运以及通利船务 整合到宁波海运，并将宁波海运作为国内 航运业务的唯一平台。 宁波海运在今年上半年净亏损2,243万 元。目前公司船队拥有19艘船共计913,000 载重吨。另两艘船将很快以拍卖的形式售 出，公司称两艘船舶过于老旧并且耗能过

中国的沿海航运业 在上半年下滑到历史 新低，在下半年也 看不到任何复苏的 迹象

高是抛售的主要原因。 自从2003年就在宁波海运担任董事的 褚敏，称公司的主要战略是与大客户签订 COA协议。自从浙江能源入主公司以来，已 经给公司带来许多COA协议，使船队更加 繁忙。 “目前公司正在试图开发长江以及渤海 的短途航线，”褚敏说。 “近期航运市场还不容乐观,”他承 认， “国内经济形势仍然十分复杂，制造业 大受影响，工业用电消费降低，致使包括煤 在内的大宗商品贸易量也在下跌。” 中国的沿海贸易目前正处在艰 难的时 期。据交通部最近的一份报告称，沿海航 运业在上半年下滑到了历史新低，在下半 年也没有好转的迹象。 疲软的需求，过剩的运力以及整个国际 航运业的萧条都是下滑的主要原因，一些 小规模的航运公司将在下半年遭到淘汰， 交通运输部称。 “一些曾经专注于国际航线的船可能会 转到国内沿海航线运营，使国内航运业形

势更加严峻，”一位交通运输部的官员称。 褚敏表示公司正在通过扩展租船业务， 积极寻求融资，优化船队机构以及建立战 略合作关系等途径帮助公司度过难关。

宁波海运 2002年成立的国有公司，主要 致力于以煤为主的沿海贸易。去 年由能源公司浙江能源收购。公 司持续亏损，但最近几个月通过 精简船队已经减亏。目前船队规 模19艘船，共计运力91.3万载重 吨。

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精简的远见 许遵武的棘手任务是带领中远的散货分支盈利以及更加灵活

2

011年底，强大的中远集团大幅亏

损，公司通过整合旗下所有散货资 源建立了中远散货运输集团期望借 此抑制亏损。该集团整合了中远散 运，中远（香港）航运以及青岛远洋，组建 成了拥有230艘自有散货船，共计运力1,800 万载重吨全球最大的散货船队。同时，公 司还控制超过400艘共计3,500万载重吨运 力的船舶。 许遵武被任命为这个散货运输巨头的总 经理和副主席。70年代在上海海事大学毕 业之后，许遵武在1982年加入中远广州，其 30年的中远职业生涯包括了中远广州的副 总经理，中远（香港）航运的总经理以及中 远散运的总经理。 尽管中远船队中运营着各式各样的船 舶，许遵武认为散货船对于中远来说至关

重要。 “航 运市场 还 处在 萧条当中，”许承 认。他说越来越多的非传统船东在订造船 舶，以及一些大货主公司正在垄断现货市 场。 “从长远来看，国际干散货市场仍处于 周期性低谷，但中国仍是全球干散货航运 需求的主要动力，市场前景谨慎乐观，”许 遵武说。 为了应对市场低谷，中远散货运输正在 实施新的船队战略-“从拥有船舶转变为 控制船舶”。中远散货运输在租船市场上 变的更加活跃。 由于新的管理层正在近全力使中远集团 回到盈利状态，以避免连续三年亏损从上 海证券交易所退市，中远今年一直在削减 其散货船队规模。在这方面，中远已经不 再是世界上最大的干散货运营商，已经被

货主自建船队往往以失败告终 18

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日本邮船株式会社超越。然而，中远仍然是 最大的干散货船东。 许遵武表示货主应该加强与航运公司 的合作关系以建立高效的服务和互惠互 利的关系。 “目前，许多货主借着低船价的 机会建 立自己的船队或者扩张其航 运 运 力，”他接着说： “我认为这是一个危险的 局面，综观历史，货主自建船队往往都是以 失败告终，想要长期有序的发展，需要货主 和船东建立稳定的关系。”

中远散货运输 中远散货运输是两年前成立 的干散货航运巨头，是全球 最大的干散货船东，以及继 日本邮船之后全球第二大干 散货运营商。

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船厂淘汰

CANSI

Katherine Si采访中国船舶工业行业协会领导王锦连

对

中国实力弱的船厂的淘汰还 将持续，未来两三年内该领 域回升的可能性较小，中国船 舶工业行业协会（CANSI）秘

书长表示。 在SinoShip的专访中，王锦连认为行业存 在着“不合理的行业结构”和关键性支持 行业的发展缓慢。 王锦连坦言中国船厂“创造力较弱”，中 国在获取高端产品的订单量上有所不足。 “小型和低端船厂的淘汰不可避免，” 这位造船行业的专业人士表示。 “盲目地扩张产能和产品种类并不明 智，”他表示，尤其劝诫小型船厂不要过分 追求进入高端市场。 “随着造船行业的发展，高端市场对于 造船者的竞争来说才是关键的，”王锦连表 示，并继续到“中国在这一领域仍需向日本 和韩国学习。” 有所下降但决不出局是协会传达的信

息，王锦连表示政府雄心勃勃的目标还是 有望实现的。 未来三年，中国造船企业的目标是获得 国际高端船舶市场份额的25%，国际海工市 场的20%。 另一件未来三年中国船厂中值得关注 的事情就是大 规 模的 海外 扩张，王锦连 说道，船厂和设计企业的并购也会提上日 程。 王锦连认为新造船的价格已经触底但是 航运业“尚未表现出复苏迹象”，仍需两到 三年造船企业才能回到健康的状态。 王锦连在他的职位上恪尽职守，心系协 会会员— 这些面临巨大压力的船厂—的 最佳利益。为此，他呼吁监管机构和财政 部门给予帮助。王锦连还与其他许多机构 在近期有所接触，包括发改委，工业信息化

中国船舶工业行业协会（CANSI） 会员汇集了中国领先的船厂。会员 最高峰时期达到2,000家，但是在 行业低迷中缩减了至少一半，数 量仍在减少。

部，中国发展银行和其他银行，为他所在的 艰难领域寻求财政支持。 在蓬勃时期，船东在定船时会支付高达 40%到60%的预付金。而现在降到了10%到 15%，给船厂带来了巨大压力。 今年一月到六月，中国造船完工量达到 3,549万dwt,下降7.7%；新接订单1,164万dwt, 和去年同期相比骤降50.7%。船厂淘汰还将 持续。

小型和低端船厂的淘汰不可避免 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

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码头 ■ ■ ■

必须是中资拥有的货 船方可获准在同一个国 家转运

雷声大，雨点小 对于全新的上海自由贸易试验区，Wang Fenglei并没有兴奋过头

九

月底上海自贸区的开幕式由 国家商务部部长高虎城主 持，此举已意味深长。自由 贸易区的最大推手李克强总 理并没有出席仪式，更让人觉得自贸区 的成立过于仓促。试验区推出，却没有

所想般的自由，作为中国贸易门户的香 港可以暂时松一口气。 高部长表示，这个面积29平方公里的 地区有助于实施更加积极的对外开放政 策。 自贸区的众多重点措施涵盖了放宽

外国投资限制，由市场订定利率和容许 人民币与其他货币自由兑换。包括航运 在内的18个界别也获准在自贸易区内 成立 。 美银美林大中华区首席经济学家陆挺 在一份报告中指出：“我们认为上海自 贸区的重要性必将超越现有的任何其他 特区。” 他补充说：“然而，我们认为上海必 须控制他们的热情，才可能使上海自贸 区成为香港的有力竞争者-否则整个中 国将会很快出现全面改革的新时代。” Jefferies在给投资者的笔记里认为自贸 区最终或会改善贸易的金融基建，但带 动贸易量的将是对货物的最终需求，而 非基建。 希望自贸区能让他们在中国转运的外 国货运商将会大失所望。 Jefferies说：“必须是中资拥有的货船 方可获准在同一个国家转运。” 新规定允许外国船运公司在合资的国 际航运企业中持有更多股份。现时的限 制是49%。外国船舶管理公司可在区内成 立独资的国际船舶管理公司。 天津，邻近深圳的前海，邻近澳门的 横琴和广州南部的南沙，将成为下一轮 的自由贸易区。

青岛堪称全球最具生产力的港口 凡 是 近 五 年来到过青岛的人，大概都 会山东的高科技留下深刻印象。进入大 楼后便是密集式的电子屏幕，偌大的空

领先中国港口年初至今增长率 2013年一月至七月vs.2012年一月至七月

间里似乎每个角落都覆盖了网路。根据 《Journal of Commerce》的指数，青岛港

Suzhou 苏州

这项调查首次根据生产力措施而非处

Xiamen 厦门

理的容量决定港口的排名。

Qingdao 青岛

柜港口业界多年来停滞不前的整体生产

Tianjin 天津

力水平。根据全球主要最大货柜运输公

Ningbo-Zhoushan 宁波舟山

司提供的数据，计算全球港口每小时的

Guangzhou 广州

结果青岛轻易在该次调查中胜出，但 更惊人的是首五位均为中国内地城市。 宁波排名第二，紧随其后的是大连，上

15.8 15.2 11.4

Lianyungang 连云港

该资料库已发展五年，目的是提升货

货柜升降量。

22.6

Dalian 大连

今年7月获封为全球最具生产力的港口。

10.1 9.5 6.8 3.4 3.2

Shanghai 上海 Shenzhen 深圳

2.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

来源：上海航运交易所

海和天津。而全球20大货运港口之中， 便有14个来自大中华地区。 一名香港运输业分析人士说：“结果 证明了中国20年来对投资于港口发展的 规模无人能及。结合国际营运商，大量

可用的土地及雄厚的财力，中国已成为

大连港按月增长持续处于领先位置 （见

快速处理集装箱的能手。”

图表），相较之下，长江三角洲增长温

今年渤海一带的北方港口迅速发展，

和，而南方则较为缓慢。

Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 专题

迎接巨轮

有能力接收Valemax型矿砂 船的中国港口

事件即将结束，中国港口将迎接最大型的干散货船

中

国远洋运输集团主 席魏家福 于 今夏 退 休 的 消息，对 巴西 矿业巨头淡 水河谷 公司而 言 应该 是 一 宗喜讯。魏 家福 一 直激烈反对淡水河谷40万载重吨的干散 货船valemaxes矿砂船停靠中国。文章刊出 时，SinoShip预期针对这些巨轮的限制将会 被取消。 中国交通运输部于8月去信中国船东协 会,中国港口协会,中国引航协会,中国海事局 及相关政府部门及本地港口公司，请他们就

日后船只安全靠港的行政措施提出回应。 交通运输部在信中谈及，随着船舶体积 日渐庞大，港口必须与时并进，维持安全作 业。信中并建议只要保障安全，可让大于30 万吨的干散货船停靠中国港口。 交通运输部于2012年初禁止巨轮停靠 中国港口，形容这类船舶为 “关乎垄断 和不公平竞争”，并在40万吨的valemaxes 矿砂船于2011年12月首次停靠大连港时提 出针对安全的顾虑。 淡水河谷在2008年开始委托建造35

艘巨型干散货船，每艘船的成本超过1亿 美元。 SinoShip认为除了大连以外，连云港， 青岛，宁波- 舟山，湛江和曹妃甸均具 备 必须的基建，可随时容纳valema xes矿砂 船，其他港口也将效法，例如湄州湾已于 8月宣布建造容量40万吨的码头，而交通 运输 部 亦于同日发 出信 件，回溯 之 前 对 该巨轮的限制。Valemax事件显然已告一 段落。

失色。 上海国际航运研究中心近期一份报告 显示，宁波-舟山港公认为中国最佳的天 然深水港，货物吞吐量将持续于第二个

季度有双位数字增张，令其超越上海， 从整体的货物吨数而言，今年上半年已 成为全球第一大港。 宁波-舟山港今年上半年累计增长 6.7%，比上海还要多1,100万吨。 宁波港目前正计划在香港上市。

宁波超越上海 虽然 新加 坡连续几个月迎头赶上，但上 海仍在2013年连续四年蝉联箱港宝座。 令人意外的是从整体吨数而言，毗邻的宁 波-舟山港创下佳绩，似乎令上海也黯然

22

www.sinoshipnews.com

大 连，连云港，青岛，天津丶，宁波- 舟 山，湛江和曹妃甸

■ ■ ■ 专题

强硬路线 浅谈中国对外籍交通肇事者的 态度变化

过

去，如果一名外籍船长因在 中国海域交通肇事导致他人 死亡，船东或保险公司往往 会对受害人家属进行赔偿， 但中国刑事法院不会对肇事者提起法律诉 讼。不过，今年 5 月，浙江一家法院因交通 肇事致人 死亡判处两名缅甸男子有期徒 刑，此类案件在中国尚属首例，标志着中国 对交通肇事的态度发生了改变。 一艘新加坡集装箱船在从上海驶往宁 波的途中与一艘渔船相撞，导致四名船员 死亡，另有三名船员失踪。事故的起因是集 装箱船在能见度很低的情况下穿越渔船船 队，而且缅甸二副并未采取适当的警戒措 施。发生碰撞后，二副未尝试搭救船员或 放慢集装箱船的船速。当缅甸船长得知发 生事故后，他同样没有采取任何措施救助 落水船员，也没有将该事故上报。法院判处 二副三年有期徒刑，判处船长四年有期徒 刑。 “这不是第一次涉及[由于外籍船长的 驾驶疏忽导致]中国船员死亡的事故，却是 中国刑事法院第一次对外籍船长提起法律 诉讼，”中国航运律师事务所敬海律师事 务所合伙人王洪宇说道。 在本案中，中国当局对通常由民事法院 处理的事件提起了刑事诉讼，标志着中国 要对海上交通事故采取更严厉的态度。 “近来，此类事故越来越多，中国的刑 事法院希望向航运业表明他们比以往任何 时候都更加严厉。现在，如果驾船途中粗心 大意，不仅需要支付赔偿金，还会被指控 承担刑事责任，”王洪宇说道。 由于船员的入行门槛与以往相比有所降 低，因此海上事故数量呈上升趋势。 “我从 事这个行业已经 25 年了，我的印象是与以 往相比，船上的船员经验越来越少，受教育 程度也越来越低。在 20 年前的中国，如果 想当船长，就必须上航海学校，而且必须 拥有五到六年的海上经验，”王洪宇说。 “

24

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中国的刑事法院希望向航运业表明他们比 以往任何时候都更加严厉 现在却没那么严格了。如果想当船长，只需 要两三年经验就可以了。” 鉴于法院开始起诉海外船员，因此如果 发生事故，外籍船东及其员工需要及时上

报事故，并采取措施搭救落水船员。船上 的船员应时刻牢记有可能会承担刑事责 任，并确保向调查事故的中国当局提供准 确和真实的报告。

中国海事仲裁委员会 中国海事仲裁委员会 (CMAC)于1959 年 在北京成立，负责审理各种形式的航运 纠纷。在草拟合同（如船舶建造协议或租 船合同）时，合同双方会协定在发生纠纷 时向法院或仲裁机构求助。 虽然人们普遍认为仲裁更快且更具成 本效益，但会根据惯例确定选择何种形 式的司法机构。 “通过法院诉讼还是仲裁解决纠纷，

在很大程度上取决于索赔的性质。就租 船合同和造船纠纷而言，通常会采用仲裁 解决纠纷。但是对于其他类型的纠纷而 言，例如燃料或油漆供应商、按揭银行提 出的索赔，货主因货物损坏或丢失提出的 索赔或对无正本提单交货造成损失提出 的索赔等，法院诉讼则更为常见，”英国 航运律师事务所—其礼律师事务所合 伙人Ik Wei Chong解释说。

法律 ■ ■ ■

陷入困境 海航集 团最近频繁进出法 院。9月，海航邮 轮在韩国被扣

乘风破浪 经济低迷使得律师工作增多

虽

法律案件往往是航运 市场表现欠佳和现金流 紧张造成的直接后果

然大多数中国航运从业者都 在祈祷勉强糊口，但总有些 航运公司会在混战中发展壮 大。由于利润侵蚀和接近破 产导致利益冲突攀升，涉及航运纠纷的航 运公司数量创下新高。 航 运纠纷律师承接的案件 数 量也 逐 渐 增多。英国航 运律师 事 务所其 礼律师 事务所承接的纠纷案件较 上年同期增长 了20-30%。 “法律案件往往是航运市场 表现欠佳和业内运营商现金流紧张造成 的直接后果，”其礼律师事务所合伙人Ik Wei Chong说道： “比如与燃料和油漆供应

商、按揭银行提出的索赔、船员工资、无 正本提单下交货引起的损失索赔引起的纠 纷等。” 中国航运律师事务所敬海律师事务承 接的类似案件的数量同样有所增加。“我 们承接的干案件数量[涉及承包商纠纷的案 件，例如租船合同、提货单、货运客户]相

但即便是通常采用仲裁解决的合同纠 纷，当事双方通常也不会选择中国海事仲 裁委员会。 “当谈判磋商租船合同时，双方将协 定在伦敦、香港和新加坡进行仲裁，而不 会选择中国。因为相比中国大陆，国际航

运业更信任伦敦或香港的仲裁机构，因为 他们认为这些地方的仲裁员在处理这些 案件方面更有经验，”中国航运律师事务 所敬海律师事务所合伙人王洪宇认为。 虽然中国海事仲裁委员会目前尚不 是首选，但部分业内人士认为这只是时

比涉及事故的湿案件增长了 30% 以上，” 敬海律师事务所合伙人王洪宇说：“租船 人试图摆脱租船合同—因为当他们商谈 租船合同时市场状况良好，但现在市场 不景气，因此他们没有能力支付当初同意 的租金或运费，于是就找借口摆脱现有的 合同。” 香港最新成立的一家律师事务所不断发 展壮大。到2011年底，包括15名律师在内 的全部 50名员工均离开了 Reed Smith 香港 办事处，并加入了香港一家新成立的独立 律师事务所 Howse Williams Bowers (HWB)。 HWB 由 Chris Howse、Chris Williams 和 Kevin Bowers共同创建，已于2012年1月1 日正式开业。Howse自1981年起就在香港 担任律师，在谈到这家拥有丰富海上专业 知识的独立律师事务所时说：“现在我们 来了”。 随着来自 Norton Rose 的 Jonathan Silver 加入其中，HWB现已拥有16名合伙人，该 事务所将专注于船舶融资业务。第17位合 伙人即将到来。 HWB现有员工100人，其中可以赚取律 师费的员工约有50人。 在判断市场前景时，Howse指出：“财 务状况有所好转。许多客户正在购买船 只。船价已经跌至谷底，即将触底反弹。 自从运费下跌以来，这一点让人感到惊 喜。惊喜还会不断出现。而真正让人感到 惊喜的是当前的运费。” 此外，仲裁委员会同样在低迷的业务 环境中实现了蓬勃发展。“2000年，我们 仅有20个案件，但在2009年和去年，我们 接到了80个或更多案件。2008年之后，案 件数量明显增加，”中国海事仲裁委员 会副秘书长陈波说。“我们看到，与新船 建造和销售合同有关的纠纷与日俱增。当 市场状况良好时，许多纠纷无需仲裁， 因为船东希望尽快将船只投入市场赚取利 润；但当市场不景气时，船东会寻找借口 不购买船舶，或者因市场状况不佳而索要 折扣。”

间问题。“中国海事仲裁委员会要想提 高在国内航运界和国际仲裁界的知名度 和被认可度，尚需一定时日。我相信， 假以时日，中国海事仲裁委员会会更知 名、更为业界所接受，”Ik Wei Chong 说道。

相比中国大陆，国际航运界更信任伦敦或香港的仲裁机构 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 注册

天津渴望吸引中国 船舶返回内地 一般船东对于悬挂中国国旗持保留态度，Sam Chambers指出 新船旗或许有助于改善现状

每

个海运大国总能想出办法解 决船旗的问题。韩国和挪威 都试过到第二国注册，但结 果往往成败参 半。由于中国 对悬挂国旗向有严格规定，因此过去16年 来都以香港作为转运站。自从1997年回归 以来，在香港注册的船舶数量激增，为数 庞大的中国船舶纷纷挂上香港特别行政区 的区旗。 然而，现在北京也在尝试推行第二面船 旗，试图让为了方便而选择悬挂他国旗帜 的本国船东重回祖国怀抱。天津东疆保税 港区在5月开启绿灯，推出新的注册程序， 更进一步简化针对外国营运资金和船员的 硬性规定。天津正积极成为媲美上海的航 运集中区。 中国政府规定拥有至少五成中方资本 的船舶必须悬挂中国国旗，而且只能聘用 中国船员。现在天津试 点方 案则允许来 自海外的资金，而且容许聘用三成外国船 员。另外还简化 融资租 赁的船 舶注 册程

海港城市天津尝试建立一个足以与上海相抗衡的航 运集中区

58%

的中国船舶 悬挂外国国旗

序，这是中国船运界日益重要的趋势。 悬挂中国国旗的船舶所面临的其他限制 还包括强制执行中国船级社的分类、向中 国公司投保、忍受沉重的企业税负担，以及 遵守中国的法律体系。 过去中国已经尝试过类似的计划，吸引 在外国注册的中国船舶回到祖国。根据联 合国一项最新统计数据显示，中国船舶当 中有58% 在海外注册。一般情况下，大部分 中至大型的中国船公司会在中国注册一艘 船以保留中国籍，而船队的其他船舶则会 在其他地方注册，其中主要是香港。 自2 0 07年以来，北京已延长税收减免 计划，吸引悬挂外国国旗的船舶重新挂上 五星红旗，但奖励方式获得的效应并不显 著。 同样的，上海附近的洋山深水港也在 2012年3月提供优惠，凡是悬挂外国旗帜的 中国船舶在洋山重新注册均可获得豁免增 值税，但成效仅仅近乎零。 一位上海的国际律师表达他的看法： “ 中国长期以来不断尝试吸引更多中国船舶 回来祖国注册，却不愿采取行动提供更吸 引人的注册条款。这实在令人费解，中国的 规定过于严格，而且相当昂贵。说到最后， 天津所能采取的举措可能只是推行第二国 船旗的政策，不过届时可能还需要制定更 多激励措施才能见到效果。” 初期可能只有支线船舶公司响应天津计 划，不过一些大型国有企业也认真考虑登 记，例如总部设在天津的中远集团的干散 货运输子公司中远散货运输。

香港向另一里程碑 又迈进一步 Sam Chambers呼吁，尽管特别行政区有着非比寻常的增长但是不能固步自封

在

我们的杂志即将付印之时， 香港船舶注册处正迈向另一 里程碑。截止到九月底，船舶 注册数量达到了2,304艘，总 计8,480万总吨，已经非常逼近8,500万这一 记录。在过去12个月船旗增长了8%，奠定了 其作为世界第四的地位。 船舶注册无疑是16年前香港回归中国之 后在海事领域最大的成功了，有相当数量的 大陆船舶选择了悬挂紫荆花旗。大陆船东 现在占有船舶注册超过70%的份额。 香港船旗最受欢迎的是过去七年一直执 行吨位年费减免计划。任何香港注册船舶 在两年内没有港口国控制滞留记录都可以

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享受来年吨位费用上50%折扣。香港注册 的船舶在中国港口也可享受港口优惠费。 一份由香港城市大学在今年三月发布的 报告显示了香港船旗在作为国际海事中心 这一领域的地位备受好评。 “香港船舶注册服务以成本效益，节省 时间和高质量著称，”该报告指出。 然而，该报告呼吁当地政府签订更多双 重税协定(DTAs)以保持竞争力。 “许多船东或是船舶运营商在近期将 其船舶注册转向新加坡，由于新加坡比起 香港在双重税伙伴关系方面更广泛。这对 香港造成了很大的威胁，香港需要巩固其 在船舶注册领域的成功。”该报告建议。

五大船旗(m gt) 1 2 3 4 5

Panama 巴拿马

Liberia 利比里亚

Marshall Islands 马绍尔群岛

Hong Kong 香港

Singapore 新加坡 0

230.1

15.2 129.7

88.3

81.4

64.9

50

100

150

资料来源：Clarksons, 2013年7月

200

250

LNG ■ ■ ■

转向码头 为满足中国雄心勃勃的混合能源需求，LNG设施正在沿海建设

中

国目前大概是地球上液化天 然气需求增长最热的地方。 中国最新的五年计划呼吁将 中国混合能源比从2010年的 4%左右提升到2015年的8%，而到2020年 则增长到10%。国内的天然气生产在努力 跟上脚步，进口量从2012到2015年几乎翻 番，将达到大约800亿立方米。 国际能源机构预测中国天然气需求将 在2030年达到5450亿立方米。2012年，中 国LNG进口量突破了210亿立方米。中国 在2007年已经成为天然气净进口国。 目前，中国有6个LNG码头项目在运

营，第一个在2006年启动。所有的都由国 有能源公司中海油，中石油和中石化管 理。 目前中国有八个LNG进口码头在建， 还有其它一些在规划中。 中海油，中国领先的能源公司，在九 月宣布公司计划在2015年增加五个LNG接 收码头。 此外，公司将于今年年底在天津启动 浮式存储再气化项目，在珠海启动转换码 头项目。 天津浮式码头，中国第一座，将包括 浮式，存储和再气化设施，一个配套泊

位，两个30,000立方米仓储罐。每年LNG 接收能力将达到30亿立方米。 LNG码头项目，目前由中国三大国有 石油行业巨头垄断，最终将会向私营企业 开放。 Royal Dutch Shell与中国私营企业广汇 能源签署了意向书，在江苏省启东建造一 座LNG码头。 中国的海运天然气进口也在快速变化 着。2008年，80%中国的LNG进口来自澳大 利亚。但是到2012年，卡塔尔将代替澳大 利亚成为中国最大的供应国，占LNG进口 的34%，印度尼西亚和马来西亚占29%。

LNG码头项目，目前由中国三大国有石油行业巨头垄断，最终将会向 私营企业开放 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 专题

长江带头成为液化天然气 的储运站 中国积极寻找洁净能源，相关发展正紧锣密鼓进行之中

今

年8月，中国首个民营液化 天然气（LNG）燃料储运站 已获批准，由总部设在河北 的洁净能源供应商新奥能源 控股于舟山兴建。 预计2016年3月完成第一期工程后，储 运站的接收量将可达到300万吨。该项目 投资总额为47.5亿人民币。 舟山政府预计该项目将可推动舟山港 成为东北亚地区的液化天然气中心。 新奥能源目前已在中国15个省份投资 及经营超过100个燃气设施。最近公司还 与一家加拿大能源公司签署长期购买LNG 协议，每年供应200万吨液化天然气。 同一个月，公司再与深圳挂牌的天然 气能源分销商和投资者金鸿能源签订战 略合作协议，共同发展船用LNG站，这个 项目的总投资额约为6亿人民币。 目前除了长江流域之外，船用LNG行业 尚属一个全新领域。北京正积极打造海上 储运站，作为净化环境的另一个选择。 国家主席习近平亲自下令洁净长江的

国家主席习近平于7月造访武汉新港，指示将长江流 域打造成“黄金水道”

川崎有意在中国建造LNG船

中国即将入主GTT？

川崎重工（KHI）的中国合资造船厂计划

今年6月，法国能源巨头道达尔（Total）

在2018年完成LNG运输船的建造工程。

和 私 募 基 金 海 曼 傅 莱 曼（H e l l m a n &

川崎将会投入更多资金于与中远合资

Friedman）宣布拟出售膜式LNG系统的工

的南通中远川崎船舶工程（NACKS），提

程公司Gaztransport & Technigaz（GTT）三

供造船厂足够的年产能，顺利在2018年完

成股权，估计将会在亚洲的中韩之间掀起

成两艘液化天然气运输船的计划；倘若订

一场竞购战。尽管消息后来无疾而终，但

单增加，大连中远川崎船舶工程（DACKS

是来自法国的消息宣称双方仍有意议价。

）亦考虑投入建造LNG运输船的行列。 川崎重工预计，在中国建造LNG船可将 成本降低将近三成。传统上，川崎主要建 造莫斯式LNG船（图），而中国则一直专注 于生产比较受欢迎的膜式LNG船。

GTT在LNG船领域占有大约七成市场 份额，多年来韩国造船厂支付这家法国公 司的专利使用费共计已超过10亿美元。 根据去年出版的《SinoShip

LNG白皮

书》，中国地区到了2020年，将需要耗资 120亿美元建造60艘新的液化天然气运输 船。到目前为止，中国建造的LNG船均使 用GTT的控制系统，而拥有上海到广州船 厂的国营企业中国船舶工业集团（CSSC） 则是中方最有可能的买家。 GTT的其他股东，拥有四成股份的法国 燃气苏伊士集团（GDF Suez）则无意出售 其持有股份。

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计划。他在7月突然造访武汉新港阳逻集 装箱港区，敦促工作人员把长江流域打 造成“黄金水道” 。 今年夏天，基础建设公司富地石油的 子公司重庆富江能源科技公司（Fujiang Energy）开始营运长江首个LNG加注站。 富江得到重量级企业的支持，包括中国 海洋石油总公司（CNOOC ）和中国外运 长航集团。 重庆富江能源总经理罗次华表示，公 司已开始规划在武汉，南京，上海等长 江沿线兴建另外四至五个LNG加注站。第 一个LNG加气站的储备量可达2,000立方 米，每天可为20艘货船提供燃料。 富江提议在改用新燃料的过渡期间， 向大型船舶公司提供免费改装服务，再 从节约的能源成本中分成的方式收回成 本，避免一次性改装支出带给船公司的 负担。 另外，富江的竞争对手中石油也计划 投资200亿人民币，在长江沿线开发20个 LNG加注站。

枢纽：上海 ■ ■ ■

信息采购 EngenTham 确定在上海获取数据的最佳渠道 试图在中 国城市里找到有关 航运信息的可靠来源，其难度 之大莫过于破译罗塞塔石碑上 的铭文。不过上海却大不一 样，这里的航运历史相对更为 悠久，信誉良好的信息提供商 的数量也与日俱增。 在众多新市场参与者中就 包括 Panjiva，这是一家设在 上海的仅限付费用户使用的在 线B2B网站，服务对象为供应 商和买家。该网站整合了30个 数据源，其中包括来自7个国 家的海关数据、认证数据和联 系信息。例如，其用户不仅可 查阅非常详尽的美国航运进口 信息—例如某家美国公司从 任何一家中国供应商采购的服 装的发货数量（按重量计）； 还可获得宏观经济数据，例如 美国从中国采购的儿童玩具的 货物总重。 至关重要的是，该网站 还提供全面的中国贸易数 据。Panjiva创始人Bob Gates 介绍说：“您从其他提供商那 里只能获得零碎的中国贸易数 据和其他贸易数据源，不过， 由于您的数据是从不同来源拼

凑而来，因此这些数据不够全 面。这意味着，在Panjiva面世 之前，从单个网站根本无法获 得所需的完整信息。”

市场中保持独立性。Tina Liu 表示：“作为一家独立咨询公 司，我们致力于为市场提供客 观公正的咨询建议。我们的品

在上海搜集信息和掌握航运市场 动态的另一种途径便是参加上海航 运俱乐部举办的酒会 另一家新进入市场的公 司是Drewry。尽管这家领先 的航运咨询公司创立已久、 享誉全球，但它直到去年才 进入中国市场，并在上海开 设了办事处。该公司于1970 年创立于英国，依托现有 数据和市场联系信息，为 客户提供航运研究和咨询服 务。Drewry上海团队主管 Tina Liu 表示，与市场中的其他 信息经纪公司相比，Drewry 提供的信息范围更广，主题 更全。 尽管在上海提供航运信息 的中外船舶经纪公司不在少 数，但Drewry的独特卖点是其 能够在以派系意见偏袒著称的

牌和声誉是我们的立身之本， 绝不允许拿它们去冒险。” 依赖Drewry研究服务获取信 息的客户包括海运公司、航运 公司、船东、造船厂、码头运 营商、港务管理局、保险经纪 商、金融机构、律师事务所和 政府机构。 如果想要获取上海某家航 运企业的尽职调查信息，可 能需要聘请一家私人调查公 司。Kroll、Control Risks和FTI 这些业界领先企业都在上海设 有办事处，可提供有关绝大多 数中国企业的详细信息，其中 包括董事、债务、股东和之前 的法律诉讼等诸多内容。据因 话题性质比较敏感而不愿透露

姓名的业内人士表示，聘用小 型调查公司固然可以节省成 本，但有可能承担更大风险， 因为这些小公司往往对信息获 取方式采取更为自由放任的态 度。 关注上海航运交易所(SSE) 是了解政府主管部门最新行业 动态的良好途径。该航运交易 所于1996年由交通运输部和上 海市政府共同成立，经常充当 中国报纸报道的有关本地政策 变化的源头。 上海航运交易所还拥有一 项航运信息交换服务，其中有 三大指数：中国出口集装箱运 价指数、中国沿海散货运价指 数和上海地区出口集装箱运价 指数。 在上海搜集信息和掌握航 运市场动态的另一种途径便是 参加上海航运俱乐部 (Shanghai Shipping Club)举办的酒会， 酒会的举办时间是每个月的最 后一个星期三。该活动最初在 2011年时只是一种私人聚会， 现在已经发展成为一项行业社 交活动。 SinoShip曾参加过多次晚间 酒会，发现与会者均非常友 善，而且很容易就能够融入当 地的海事圈子。尽管我们参加 酒会时到场的有不少物流公司 的代表，但这里的确云集了航 运业各个领域的代表，从租船 服务提供商到学者不一而足。 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 枢纽：台北

不惜代价站稳脚跟 新的驻台北市记者David Green报道，台湾试图保住其在转运市场上的优势地位， 继而出台了大量激励政策 跟 踪 转 运 货物的来源和目的 地十分困难，但多项指标表明 台湾已 经 卷入保 住 其 主 要区 域转运枢纽这一重要地位的争 夺战。 其中，最主要的挑战者是釜 山港。在争夺从日本经香港前 往新加坡的主要航运航线运营 商的竞争中，釜山港已经构成 一个重大威胁。2012年，釜山的 转运吞吐量增长10.5%，而韩国 的进出口贸易额仅增长1.1%。 此 外，港口当局明确表明希望 增加日本、美国和俄罗斯之间 转运量的目标。 同 时，深 圳 盐 田 港 发 展 迅 猛，力争提高其国际转运业务 份额，致使香港自身在中国出口 货物方面面临着来自深圳的低 成本竞争。 台湾 政 府 认识 到了这些 挑 战，并于8月批准了台湾港务公 司 (TIPC) 在未来五年间斥资22 亿美元扩建岛上四个国际领先 港口的计划。此外，该计划旨在 将中国大陆二线城市的转运业 务吸引至高雄港。 “ 我 们的五年发 展 计 划 旨在 升 级 港口基 础 设 施 和 设 备。TIPC发言人表示： “尽管该 计划重点迎合大型集装箱船的 发展趋势以增加转运业务，但 它同样希望促进港口自由贸易 区的发展和蓬勃发展的海峡两 岸快速客货运服务。 然而，随着马士基集装箱码 头 公司于2 010 年 决 定 退出高 雄，台湾需确保其它公司不会 步其后尘，并在这方面面临艰 巨挑战。 目前，尽管中国经济和贸易 增长放缓，但是在台湾约1,400 万标准箱的年集装箱吞吐量中 30

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占据绝大多数的高雄的表现却 相对较好。 “高雄的货物吞吐量每年稳 步增长约5%，但由于中国经济 放缓，去年从高雄到中国大陆 之间的装载转运货物量出现下 跌，”TIPC高级发言人Yvonne Chen说。然而，尽管进口量和出 口量下降，在截至6月底的12个 月转运量增长 9.09%。 这 些 数 字 部 分反 映了台湾 四大国际港口在截 至8月底的 一年中实施旨在刺激转运业务 的刺激计划所产生的影响。此 等刺激计划为运营商提供高达 3,000万新台币奖励（奖励金额 取决于途径台湾的转运业务同 比增长幅度）以及5,000万新台 币的共同奖励（取决于运营商 的相对业绩）。

高雄同釜山和香港争夺转运货物

港口当局 证 实 如 果 结果 喜 人，日后 还 会 推 出 类 似 的 计 划，以及其他专门针对单一运 营商群体的计划。高雄目前也 为中小船舶移泊提供泊位及拖 船费补贴。 由于中国禁止国际航运公司 在中国港口进行转运，台湾至 今仍然未面临来自中国大陆港 口的竞争，所以此等激励措施 必不可少。这种情况不会长期 维持下去。所有迹象均表明，一 旦中国港口放开限制，它们将成 为重要的转运目的地。 虽然许多内地港口已经能够 处理18,000标准箱船舶，但高 雄的 重 建 计 划包 括 计 划新 增 19个深水泊位，其中包括五个 可以处理18,000标准箱船舶的 泊位，但是数年内这些泊位将

不会投入使用。 同时还存在一个大家避而不 谈的重要问题，即《海峡两岸 海运协议》。据国立台湾海洋大 学航运管理专家Chiu Rong-Her 介绍，该协议的现有条款 对台 湾造成了严重影响。 “外国航运公司不得在台湾 港运载来自中国的转运货物， 且该协议有关‘平等参与，有序 竞争’的规定限制了货物体积 和载重量，”他说。该协议包括 许多其他限制因素，同时还禁 止许多台湾航运公司运营的权 宜轮从事两岸贸易。 “这 是 限 制台湾 吸引转 运 业务能力的主要制约因素。我 们只能与他们进行谈判，双方 经常会面，并讨论两岸航运问 题”，Chiu 总结道。

枢纽：香港 ■ ■ ■

重夺海事版图 Sam Chambers评论香港如何才能保住国际海事中心地位

回顾十年前的光辉岁月，大概 会让香港整个航运界兴起往事 不堪回首之叹。毫无疑问，香港 特别行政区在亚洲航运界的优 势早已今不如昔，先有新加坡、 再 有上 海 和 深 圳 相 继 崛 起， 那么，现在香港在航运界地位 如何？ 第一届伦敦国际航运周于今 年9月举行，讨论重点在于伦敦 或新加坡是当前世界最重要的 国际海事中心，香港的名字甚至 未被提及。 香港作为全球航运最重要枢 纽的日子已经过去，今年的排名 甚至下滑到第四位，仅靠变数 极大的转运维持港口业务，和 记黄埔港口集团董事总经理马 德富（John Meredith）表示，转 运对本地经济的作用有如机场 的转机候机室。 航运界人士相继出走，出现人 才流失的现象，有能力的员工纷 纷转向重视员工的新东家效力。

我们的姐妹杂志《Maritime CEO》9月底在香港文华东方酒 店举办了一次高层商务午餐，多 家船 运公司高层，包括华光、 泰昌祥、Valles Steamship、Oak Maritime和太平洋航运的老板 均有出席。几位管理高层都表 达了一 个共同隐忧，就是 难以 找 到 适 合在 航 运 界发 展 的人 才，因为新加坡的工资远较香 港的中位数为高。同样的，吸引

了全球最广泛地区，而且在全 世界排第四位。建立法规仍然 非常重要，然则设立海事法院 将可加强其作为仲裁中心的地 位。在金融方面，这个前英国殖 民地仍然是船东寻找资金的世 界重要据点。另外还有即将启 用的全新邮轮码头，如果经营 得法，可能吸引为数可观的旅 游收入。 不过，香港最强之处是干散

（BHP Biliton）和力拓集团（Rio Tinto）从新加坡迁至香港，以加 强城市的海事资格。 干散货低迷助却助了香港一 臂之力。在景气低迷导致部分 业者倒闭的期间，作风保守的 业者却没有逃避责任。结果，越 来越多租赁经理飞抵香港国际 机场，与有实力的业者商讨长 期合作计划。 毫无疑问，行政长官梁振英 的班底将航运放在最高一级的 优先处理事项，其积极的程度 高过回归16年以来的任何一位 领导者。 当然，该做的事情还很多。 今 年 3月，香 港 城 市大学 与一 国两制研究中心制作了一份报 告，探讨香港特区政府应该采 取什么行动，才能保持具竞争 力的国际海事中心地位。 “为了提高香港的竞争力， 特区 政 府应 该 超 越 实体 的 港 口发 展 和 港口相 关 的 物 流 业 务，专注于 海 事服 务，尤 其 是 船舶融资、船舶保险和邮轮旅 游等。”研究报告提出这样的 建议。 这些重要建议当中，提及香 港一直迟迟未肯签订避免双重

转运对地方经济的作用有如机场的转机候机室 香港年轻一代进入航运界也是 困难重重。 那 么香 港 还 有什么优 势 ？ 首先是船舶管理。香港境内有 1,500多艘船，特区政府在船舶 管理方面堪称世界首屈一指。 船 舶 注 册方面也 获 得 极 大 成 功，悬挂香港船旗的船舶覆盖

货船。虽然新加坡在油轮方面 占有优势，但香港的海岬型船 仍然超过任何地方。 本地 政 府应该向新加 坡学 习，尝试为宝钢这类大型的中 国 工业 巨擘 处 理 他 们 在 香 港 的贸易，同时，想办 法 吸引国 际贸易龙头，如必和必拓公司

课税协议（DTAs），排名前20位 的贸易伙伴大约仅半数签署。 相较之下，新加坡和中国内地已 经各取得50张双重课税协议， 香港显然在这方面略逊一筹。 转型与升 级 的时 间已经 到 了。香港不该继续瞻前顾后，必 须向前看。 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

31

■ ■ ■ 书籍

全球化带来的消极影响 Paul French对众多有关环保的书目进行了梳理，发现矛头纷纷指向污染最为严重的中国 如 今，环 保 问题已经成为不 容回避的正式主 题。因此，以 此为主题的书籍层出不穷。似 乎中国的环境问题已经成为迫 在眉睫的重大问题。 双语网站Ch i n ad ia log ue (. net)的幕后工作团队剖析了中 国近期的环境问题，并对其进 行了一 系 列 非 常 有益 的 案 例 研究。该网站编辑Sam Geall 和创始人Isabel Hilton（她本 人 是 一 位常年 研 究中国问 题 的 著 名 汉 学 家）在《中 国 和 环境：绿色革命》(China and the Environment: The Green Revolution)(Zed Books, 2013)中 专门辟出多个章节，详细介绍 了与空气污染、水污染和工业 污染有关的问题。 《纽约时报》记者Jonathan Ansfield对厦门PX项目的研究 报 道 或 许 最 为 透 彻 深 入，该 案例也涉及了一座主要港口城 市。Ansfield对该标志性“邻避 效应”(Not-In-My-Back-Yard, N I M BY )事件的记 述，表明工 业重要性与日俱增且拥有主要 港口的地区如何对工业和人才 产生巨大吸引力。 Craig Simons以前曾是外国 驻华记者，他所选择的视角是 中国 对 资源 无 穷无 尽 的 渴 求 正在 给其 他国家 造 成 环 境问 题 。《饥渴的中国龙：中国崛 起如何会对自然界产生威胁》 (The Devouring Dragon: How China’s Rise Threatens Our Natural World)(St Martin’s Press, 2013)一书指出，中国是 世界第一大热带木材进口国， 其中 绝 大 多 数 木 材 均自印度 尼西亚非法砍伐而来；与此同 时，巴西农民将大片亚马逊热 带雨林夷为平地，以满足中国 对 于 大 豆 油 和 牛肉的巨大 需 求。在美国，中国发电厂产生 的达到有毒水平的水银污染物 已经污染了美国三分之一的湖 泊和将近四分之一的河流。鉴 于奥巴马政府将中国列为前三 大外交政策重点之一，Simons 提 出了中 美 两 国 合 作 的 新 方 式。他认为通过 这种方式，中 美两国能 够开 创 合 作的 新 纪 32

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这座世界工厂正造成全球污染

元，从而为中国新兴的环保团 体提供大力支持，并确保地球 能够拥有可持续发展的未来。 Ta p a n S a r k e r、M o a z z e m Hossain和Malcolm Macintosh 撰写的《亚洲世纪：可持 续发 展与气候变化》 (The Asian Century, Sustainable Growth

一地区人民的生活水平普遍提 高，但目前决策者面临重大抉 择—应该保持当前的经济增 长速度同时对污染环境的举动 坐视不管，还是承受公众健康 和环境卫生状况恶化和自然资 源流失的后果。 作者的笔触范围很广—在

在美国，中国发电厂产生的达到 有毒水平的水银污染物已经污染了 美国三分之一的湖泊和将近四分之 一的河流 and Climate Change)(Edward Elgar Publishing, 2013)对整个 亚洲大陆的情况进行了考察， 并将这一地区强劲的经济增长 及人民日益提高的生活水平与 日益凸显的自然环境退化问题 加以比较。他们认为，虽然这

对环 境 造 成 影 响的 诸 多因素 中，不只有工业因素，还有人口条 件以及在未来推行税收改革和 以负责任的方式使用自然资源。 最 后，切 记 交 通 运 输 在 有 关 环 境的 辩 论中发 挥 着重 大 作用。世 界 银 行 的 部 分 经 济

学 家 出版 发 行了一本 非常 有 趣 的 小 型 电子 书，该 书 审 视 了巴基斯坦的《2011 年经济 增长框架》 (2011 Framework for Economic Growth) 在发展 交 通 运输业 方面 对环 境 造 成 了怎样的影响。《通过交 通运 输 业改革实 现巴 基 斯 坦 绿 色 经济增长：环境、贫困和社会 战略评估》(Greening Growth in Pakistan through Transport Sector Reforms: A Strategic Environmental, Poverty, and Social Assessment) (World Bank, 2013) 阐述了交通运输 对空气质量、噪音污染、道 路 安全、危险品运输、气候变化 和城市扩张造成的影响。尽管 书中内容仅局限于巴基斯坦， 但它不失为一项非常有趣的研 究，值得许多新兴市场中负责 制定交 通 运输和环 保 政 策的 人士借鉴。

意见 ■ ■ ■

迫切需要做出改变 在8月菲律宾发生渡轮失事惨剧之后，Andrew Craig-Bennett将目光瞄准了《1972年国际海上避碰规 则》(1972’s Collision Regulations) 1977年7月15日《1972年国际海 上避碰规则》正式生效，取代了 1960年颁布的国际海上避碰规 则。如果当时您在海上工作，那 么现在至少已经年过五旬。这 意 味 着，实际上，如 今在 海上 工作的每名船员以及几乎所有 曾向现在出海工作的海员讲解 海上 避 碰 规 则的 讲 师和 教 授 在整个职业生涯中均非常仰仗 《1972年国际海上避碰规则》。 在《1972年国际海上避碰规 则》之前颁布的所有版本都没 有它这么经久不衰。 国际海事组织(IMO)的工作人 员工作非常繁忙。我们非常清 楚。不过，他们对于《1972年国 际海上避碰规则》完美无缺的 看法（他们似乎也是这么做的） 是否妥当？ 显而易见，1972年时分道通 航制还是一个新生事物；当时 之所以要颁布《1972年国际海 上避碰 规则》，就是要在1971 年发生多起撞船事件后在多佛 海峡尽快强制设立分道通航制 (TSS)。 同 年 1 月 1 1 日 ，T e x a c o Ca ribbea n号油轮在空载的情 况 下（当 时 还 没 有 惰 性 气 体 系 统）与 一 艘 秘 鲁双 层 甲 板 船Pa racas相撞后爆炸并沉 没，致使船上8名船员遇难。次 日，德国Brandenburg号航船误 年国际海上避碰规则》没有任 撞 失 事 船 只 残 骸 后 沉 没，致 何关系，靠的是过去30年间的 使 船 上 2 2 名 船 员 遇 难 。2 月 船舶设计和安全设备得到了进 2 7日，希 腊 N i k i 号 航 船 撞 上 一步完善。 标 示 清 晰 的 失事船只 残 骸 后 《19 7 2 年 国际 海上 避 碰 规 沉 没，致 使 船 上 全 体 船 员 遇 则》并未涉及ARPA、AIS、VHF 难 。这 些 海 难 都发 生在 欧 洲 还有VTS。 西北区域，情况令人极为尴尬。 如今，绝大多数船舶依靠雷 “现 在不太可能 发 生 这 样的 情 达而非目测确定彼此位置。在 况”…可惜 的 是，虽 然 颁 布了 存在撞船风险的海域，大多数 《1972年国际海上避碰规则》， 船舶使用AIS数据在VHF上进 但2002年12月14日惨剧再度发 行通讯。 生—Tricolor号在多佛海峡被 《19 7 2 年 国际 海上 避 碰 规 Kariba号撞沉；次日荷兰Nicola 则》犯了一 个大错 误 — 错 误 号误撞失事船只残骸；2003年1 根源则要追溯至1863年，当时 月1日，土耳其Vicky号也撞上了 英法两国政府取代了1842颁布 失事船只残骸。历史悲剧屡屡 的《领 港 公 会 规 则》。不知出 重演，并为此付出了高昂的代 于何故，两国政府引入了帆船 价，所幸的是没有人员遇难。 的规则，并将船只交会情况下“ 此次没有人员遇难与《1972 持 续沿同一方向航行”和“让

全任务船桥模拟器为我们提供了 一种功能强大的工具用于评估碰撞 情况，这在31年前是根本无法想 象的

全任务船桥模拟器为我们提 供了一种功能强大的工具用于 评估碰撞情况，这在31年前是 根本无法想象的，此外它还可 在充分参考当今先进技术的情 况下制定一套更完善的避碰规 则。国际海事组织在这方面却 毫无作为。 2013年8月16日晚，载有870 路”的概念扩展至动力驱动船 舶。帆船在逆向迎风而行时的 人的渡轮St Thomas of Aquinas 确需要这样一条规则，但动力 号在驶入菲律宾中部的宿雾（ 驱动船舶根本不需要这样的规 进入或即将进入宿雾TSS），与 则，而且1842年也没有颁布此 出港的Sulpicio Express7号（参 见照片）相撞后沉没。初步调查 规则。 这意味着，当船只进入彼此 报告显示，这是一起因《1972 的视野时，所适用的规则会发 年国际海上避碰规则》缺陷引 生变化。此时，每艘船必须决 发的典型事故，其中入港船只 定是否超过对方、会船还是横 因浅滩无法向右转舵，并认为 越。在 这 三种情况中，有两种 对 方船只不会采 取任 何行 动， 情况都是其中一艘船只必须保 于是向左转舵，结果出港船只 持航线和速度，并等待对方作 似乎已经向右转舵。 该事故约造成120人死亡。 出反应—只有在让 路 船只保 正确的反应不该如此： “谁 持航向保持不变的情况下，持 续沿同一方向航行的船只才能 会在意，这只不过是第三世界 做到这一点。这在海事贸易中 的又一次渡轮事故罢了…” 正确的反应应该是国际海事 被称为“规则17梦魇”(Rule 17 Nightmare)。它体现了官僚主义 组织深感惭愧，并拿出负责任 的态度。 作风的荒谬之处。 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 意见

人满为患 每年这个时候，欧洲航运业高管都会去香港的 Captain’ s Bar等酒吧把酒言欢

秋日寄语 夏天过去能否带动市场回暖尚不得而知，不过每年秋天都会为我们带来一些收 获，Bei Hong在小酌之后如是写道 无 论 这个 夏天您是乘坐巨型 游艇巡游地中海，还是被迫把 闷热的办公室里的空调冷气开 大从而让当地的电力公司大发 其 财，9月都 堪 称绝 妙的 平 衡 期，因为我们都埋头苦干，准备 为在12月实现年度目标做最后 的冲刺。 请把节后的忧郁情绪抛在脑 后，现在应该卷起衣袖，努力将 原本可能业绩不佳的糟糕局面 变为业绩基本达标，或在原本 取得较好业绩的基础上再接再 厉。市场有望迎来企业IPO上市 潮，各项筹资活动也将非常活 跃，因为投资银行家已经顺利 说服船东，让他们相信“窗口肯 定会重新开启”。船东已经认识 到他们在避暑休假前所下的那 些便宜的新船订单可能无法立 刻得到银行融资的支持，不过 花“别人的钱”（虽然要付出费 34

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市场有望迎来企业IPO上市潮， 各项筹资活动也将非常活跃 用）的这种说法还是非常有说 服力的。 正 如 春 天 是自然 界万 物 复 苏的季节一样，秋天对于商旅 而言同样蕴含着勃勃生机。要 想避开北欧即将到来的寒冬， 还有什么能比将商务旅行的目 的地设在亚洲更好的呢？东京 清爽的秋日或是不再潮湿的香 港，对于那些想要借商务出行 机会“探索”东方风情的船 运 业高管而言都是迷人的召唤。 亚 洲 海 事中心 潜 在 东 道 主 的 日志内容满满当当，到 11 月中 旬，当这些欧洲人返回欧洲参 加伦敦的圣诞节前派对时，他 们不仅腰围暴粗，账单费用也 相当不菲。

不过，目前对于船舶经纪公 司的销售和采购部门来说正是 关键时期，这些部门正承受着 秋季带来的巨大压力。如果售 出的船舶能够在年底前顺利交 付，就意味着相应的佣金能够 在今年财务核算结束前计入账 目，并计入今年应发的奖金。 “ 趁第四季度经济形势转好的时 机斩获订单”绝对是个明智的 建议。如果某艘待售船只长期 在外航行，则会让经纪人抱怨 不已，因为这就意味着很难安 排良机让潜在买家查看船只情 况。不过这还不算最糟糕的情 况，最令人揪心的情况莫过于 某艘船只原定将在圣诞节前交 付，结果恰好延误到新年以后

交付。这样一来，不仅佣金会顺 延计入下一年度的奖金，而且这 笔销售业绩也会被视为“上一年 的交易”，很快就会被人遗忘。 对于 那 些 打 算 在 船 舶 经 纪 圈 的“跳槽期”,相当于世界足坛 的“转会窗口”内跳槽的经纪人 来说，这种情况尤为糟糕。 “跳 槽期”是指通常情况下，只要当 年的奖金一到手，经纪人就会 纷纷跳槽。他们丝毫不理会那 些将于来年1月交付的船舶能给 他们带来什么好处。 因 此 ，“ 第 四 季 度 形 势 好 转”的态势实际上只不过是为 了在年底前保持稳定，还是我 们的确可以从中期许获得实实 在在的好处？过去几年的历史 经验表明，每年这个时候的干 散货运输市场都会有所好转， 另外从8月底的情况可以看出， 今 年复 苏的 时 间 可能 更早 一 些。那么，是否会像过去那样， 中东地区的紧张局势会导致油 价飞涨并遏制复苏势头？打点 行囊，开启亚洲商务旅行不失 为一种更明智的策略。尽管这 的确会使您的销售和采购经纪 人承受点压力，但或许会使作 出决定的时间延后。

意见 ■ ■ ■

打造一个航运品牌 Graeme Sommerville-Ryan争论比起危机沟通，有更多的公关可做 超 过 1 0 万 艘商船 运送着90%的世界 贸易，但 是 航 运业很 少 有 好 的 媒 体 。实 际上，这个行业很 少 有媒体，除非坏事发 生。业内哀叹这些事 情的发 生，但 几乎不 做什么改变。 自从 全 球 经济 危 机爆发以来，在航 运 业几乎没什么正面消 息。坏账，运力过剩， 高油价以及事故伤亡 等消息主宰了贸易以 及主流媒体的头条。 然而，如果公司们想要 改变被公 众，同行以 及媒体描述的方式， 他们应当将他们的品 牌当作资产来对待。 大多数企业在他们 的品牌里看到与生俱 来的价值。确实，一个 成功的品牌实际上比 起其商业的部分具有 更多的价值。一些公 司仅仅因为他们的名 字而被收购。品牌的 力量反映在更高的股 价，吸引最 好的人 才 的 能力，更容易获得 融资以及在投标中更 容易成 功。品牌的确 有价值，现在已经到 了可以为品牌投保的 程度。 航运业内少数几个公司“了 解”这个概念并在强势的品牌 中看到价值。马士基和挪威船 级社是脱颖而出的两家公司。 特别是马士基如何通过广告活 动以及媒体评论来打造其企业 形象值得借鉴。一位朋友曾经 评论说马士基面临与其他航运

公司一样的运营问题（他使用 了不同的语言），但 是被区别 对待。这是一个成功品牌的力 量。 首先一个品牌不只是一个标 志。品牌是一个公司的故事，其

对股东以及客户的承诺，以及关 于其发展方向的声明。马士基 以及挪威船级社将他们自己的 品牌作为一个完整的企业实体 并让人知道他们有自己的品牌 战略。他们对如何让世界将他

如果航运业需要好的媒体，更广 泛的公司需要开始打造声誉资本

们的公司看待为行业内 最好的公司，有自己的远 见。 当航运公司谈到市场 营销，常常会用到以下 句式： “我们一直在做危 机管 理培训”。看 起 来 并可以理解的是航运企 业的注意力都集中在为 最坏的情况做准备。这 是因为当事情出错时， 会错的很彻底，很少有 其他非航运业的公司会 暴露在这种风险之下。 结果是，市场营销和 品牌发 展 试 图 不 被 注 意。这使高调推广品牌 从文化上变的困难。这 种方法的缺点是最好的 运营人看起来与最差的 相差无几，同时财政完 好的公司也会被假定与 财政挣扎的公司有同样 的问题。 当危机发生时，媒体 总是假定最坏的情况， 但是背景故事里没有正 面消息时，谁又能责怪 他们呢？ 如果航 运业需要好 的媒体，更广泛的公司 们需要开始打造声誉资 本。就实际情况而言， 这将意味着制定并有效 的实施市场营销，品牌 和沟通战略，积极主动 的处理与贸易和主流媒体的关 系。市场营销的危机管理方面 需要被重视并发展。 从其他行业可以学到很多经 验教训来促进航运业作为国际 贸易中的重要一环。对于那些 坚定立场，力争成为行业领导 者的公司，现在成功将比任何 其他时候来的更快。 Sinoship 2013年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

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LEVIATHAN M aersk’s record breaking new boxship called in China for the first time this July 马士基破纪录的新集装箱船在今年7月首次停靠中国

Sinoship SPRING 2013

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Dual language 12 correspondents across six cities Distributed to 300 Chinese shipbuilders

Unique access, exclusive intelligence Guaranteed circulation to all China, HK and Taiwan owners At all the top events both in China and worldwide

“SinoShip gives me insights into my industry that I cannot get anywhere else” –Yang Xianxiang, ceo, SITC International Holdings

“SinoShip is relevant, topical and well written” –Tim Huxley, ceo, Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings

Have you got your Chinese marketing in place for 2013?

t om ily s a s.c Da ate pnew d hi up nos si w. ww

Autumn 2013

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Grander union Wang Jing: the man behind the Nicaragua Canal

The plight of China’s banking system Refund guarantees and the downscaling of shipbuilding China surpasses Singapore in jack-up construction

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CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars 3 Editor’s Comment 4 Economy 7 Lines

I don’t think innovation and China is a good match — Jesper Andresen, ceo, Axis Offshore

9 Yards

China will produce less iron ore and import more

11 Offshore 12 Finance 13 Commodities 14 Logistics 15 Cruise

■ ■ ■ Profiles 16 Wang Jing 17 Chu Min 18 Xu Zunwu

13

— Rüdiger Grube, chairman, Deutsche Bahn

■ ■ ■ Features 21 Ports

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The Panama Canal by itself will be insufficient to meet the requirements of 21st century global trade

24 Law 27 Registries

■ ■ ■ Hubs

— Jeffrey Landsberg, president, Commodore Research & Consultancy

Growing Chinese goods traffic, and the ongoing shift of productionintensive industries to the Chinese hinterland, offers lots of potential

19 Wang Jinlian

30 LNG

11

16

— Wang Jing, chairman, Hong Kong Nicaragua Canal Development Investment Co

32 Shanghai 33 Taipei 35 Hong Kong

■ ■ ■ Reviews 36 Books

Shipping volumes of our main cargo, coal, are decreasing — Chu Min, president, Ningbo Marine

■ ■ ■ Opinions

The elimination of small and low-tech yards is inevitable

37 Andrew Craig-Bennett 38 Bei Hong 39 Graeme Sommerville-Ryan

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— Wang Jinlian, secretary general, China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry Sinoship Autumn 2013

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When a Chinese tanker owner looked for a new ship management partner Wallem delivered.

Delivering Maritime Solutions www.wallem.com

UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@asiashippingmedia.com CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Engen Tham HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI David Green CONTRIBUTORS Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh, Andrew Craig-Bennett PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao All editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com CHINA SALES DIRECTOR Tom Wu sales@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details.

Media kits are available TO download at:

www.asiashippingmedia.com All commercial material should be sent to grant@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Asia Shipping Media, 20 Cecil Street, #14-01 Equity Plaza, Singapore 049705 DESIGN Lamma Studio Design PRINTERS Allion Printing, Hong Kong SUBSCRIPTIONS

Any shipping-related company headquartered in the People’s Republic of China can receive SinoShip magazine for free. For all other companies a US$100 subscription is charged for 2013’s four issues of SinoShip. Email subs@asiashippingmedia.com for subscription enquiries.

Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2013 www.asiashippingmedia.com Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com.

Twitter: @sinoship Linked In: SinoShip China Shipping Network

Bulk bear We were at Marine Money’s Singapore event last month just as capesizes started to shoot up in earnings, cracking $40,000 a day. Owners at the event and elsewhere were in bullish form — as evidenced by the welter of dry bulk orders placed of late. I was, and am, less optimistic, and it is not really to do with the issue of overcapacity in the shipping sector, more an issue of overcapacity and lessening demand from key clients, the Chinese steel mills.

Of course, it’s always easier to be a bear than a bull in shipping. As I write this the Baltic DryIndex is yoyoing around the 2,000 mark, but — hear me out — there cannot be a strong rally until the Chinese steel sector has gone through a very painful rationalisation.

Let’s look at the reality. September is, and always has been, the traditional time for Chinese steel mills to restock.

Restocking this time is perhaps larger than in the previous couple of years as the cash strapped mills had let their stockpiles run lower than normal in the summer months. Inventory at Chinese ports was 25% less than last year. But this could be the last time we see restocking on this level — a last hurrah, as such. China’s steel industry is in incredibly bad shape — the 86 largest mills have a combined debt of $490bn.

With profits paper thin (RMB2.2bn for the biggest 86 in the first half) these same mills have bank interest payments totalling RMB40.6bn. I’m no mathematician, but those type of numbers are clearly unsustainable.

And here’s the kicker — the all powerful State Council has clocked that the nation’s steel mills are heaping too much pressure on local banks. Action is being taken with Beijing telling banks to cut lending to industries facing overcapacity of which steel is the

worst, with one local newspaper estimating there are 200m tonnes of excess supply annually. (Shipping and shipbuilding have also been highlighted by Beijing as bloated and inefficient, I am afraid to say.)

Yes, the capesize supply and demand equilibrium is way better than it was — and far more rosier than panamaxes. Taiwan’s Yuanta Securities forecast recently that annual fleet capacity in the capesize segment is to slow to 5.7% next year from 8.7% this year and down from the 15 to 20% per annum seen in the past four years. However, with cape owners still so reliant on China’s mills, I’d say we are not out of the woods yet — September’s sudden soar a blip rather than a new upward cycle.

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship Autumn 2013

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■ ■ ■ Economy

Ticking over Paul French points out solid figures, dismissing the doomsayers Though SinoShip may be overburdened with shipping puns it is the case that the Chinese economy through the summer has been ‘steady as she goes’. The more cautious analysts are warning against extrapolating too much from the monthly, and rather fluctuating, data, encouraging us to look at year-on-year growth and declines. Betting on monthly data can lead to what CLSA Emerging Market’s China Macro Strategist Andy Rothman refers to as “whiplash” — i.e. monthly upswings do not mean a return to the glory days and monthly downturns don’t mean impending crash.

Having said that July was encouraging with upswings witnessed in most reliable data.

Shipowners will be relieved to know that key indicators for their business — industrial value-added and power generation, iron ore and copper imports all strengthened. Autos and electric machinery/equipment boosted output particularly noticeably. Power generation rose 8.1% year-on-year (the highest monthly growth rate in 2013 so far) indicating production is up and so both imports and exports should strengthen in the second half of the year requiring shipment in and out.

Retail sales weakened a bit but not enough to derail the government’s plan to boost domestic consumption as a component of the overall economy.

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China’s GDP by sector, Q1 2013

Value Growth

(RMB 100m) Y-o-Y (%) Gross Domestic Products 118854.8 7.7 Primary Industry 7427.0 3.4 -Farming, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery 7427.0 3.4 Secondary Industry 54569.3 7.8 -Industry 48832.5 7.5 -Construction 5736.8 9.8 Tertiary Industry 56858.6 8.3 7.0 -Transport, Storage, and Post 6563.4 -Wholesale and Retail Trades 11913.9 10.5 -Hotel and Catering Services 2418.8 4.5 -Financial Intermediation 8098.5 11.5 -Real Estate 8382.9 7.8 19481.0 6.8 -Others Source: National Bureau of Statistics

The second half may also see some relief from price rises — inflation looks set to remain mild, while smaller declines in prices for industrial inputs and outputs could be a signal of firmer domestic demand and, with the EU and US economies improving, rising export demand again. There was a rebound in export growth to 5.1% in July — strong but overall exports remain relatively weak and won’t change dramatically this year.

It’s fair to ask where the recovery is strongest and who’s likely to be moving stuff around China and globally? The good news is that the private sector of China’s manufacturing economy is currently making most

of the running in boosting the economy — profits at privatelyowned small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) are up 15.8% so far this year; state owned enterprises (SOEs) 4.8%. The private sector is clearly growing faster and rebounding from the effects of the global economic

bills of 40% for participating SMEs, according to the Ministry of Finance. The VAT reforms should apply nationwide by next year.

Consequently stuff is moving around more — total freight traffic rose 10.5% year-on-year in June, up from 9.6% in May and 7.9% in April, while total freight ton-kilometres rose 5.8% in June, up from -0.8% in May and -0.4% in April. Truckers are trucking.

So, we’re looking at somewhere between 7.5-8% GDP growth for the year at the moment, roughly equivalent to last year. The government will be pleased with this — the wheels are still turning — and argue it is a case of stabilisation of growth in line with a maturing and increasingly sophisticated economy. Beijing has ruled out any further stimulus spending this year. Everything from trying to sort out the mess with domestic delayed flights to the scandals around corruption in the pharmaceutical industry

The private sector is growing faster than the state sector crisis faster than the state sector. Additionally SMEs have benefitted from the ongoing reform of the VAT system to reduce their tax burden. A trial run of this VAT reform in 2012 resulted in an average cut in tax

indicate that the government is prioritising longer-term restructuring of industry — market-oriented reforms are the order of the day rather than one off subsidies in the form of stimulus.

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Nobu Su’s TMT won valuable breathing space with a succession of court cases going in his favour in Houston. TMT is seeking to restructure its business using American Chapter Eleven legislation, which allows companies to keep operating during financial difficulties.

Cosco, which officially announced Ma Zehua (pictured) as new chairman in July replacing Wei Jiafu, set about stripping assets in order to return to profitability and avoid a possible delisting in Shanghai. Property assets and stakes in a logistics firm and China International Maritime Containers (CIMC) were all offloaded.

becoming the controlling shareholder of the firm.

Tianjin Marine has ambitions to order 10 VLCCs and four LNG carriers with a non-public A share offering.

China’s first luxury cruise liner Henna (pictured), owned by HNA Group, was detained at a port on the South Korean island of Jeju in September as Jiangsu Shagang Shipping chased a $58m arbitration award with a related company of the HNA Group.

Embattled CSC Phoenix may become the first delisted state owned company in China, if it survives to the end of the year.

Banks, courts and even sister firms lined up against the domestic operator, which has sold off many ships and made hundreds of employees redundant as it tries to stave off liquidation.

Harry Banga (pictured), former deputy head of Hong Kong’s Noble Group, announced the creation of a new $1bn shipping firm, Caravel Group. Caravel will concentrate on investment management activities, strategic asset ownership and the movement and storage of dry bulk raw materials.

Headquartered in Hong Kong, Caravel is looking to buy up to 12 ships in the coming 12 months as well as charter in up to 100 vessels.

China Shipping successfully issued its first US commercial paper notes in September through China Shipping Container Lines (Hong Kong), and raised $85m in funds.

Meanwhile, China Shipping Development is restructuring its oil transport business, setting up a wholly-owned

Tianjin Marine changed ownership with HNA Logistics

Sinotrans&CSC has moved to try and save subsidiary Nanjing Tanker from folding.

Nanjing Tanker reported a net loss of RMB728m for the first half of 2013. Stock trading of the company was suspended earlier this year. The company will possibly delist from the Shanghai Stock Exchange next year after the annual results are released. Parent Sinotrans&CSC is in discussions with Sinopec to come in and save the company.

The boss of Nanjing Hengrui Shipping has run away and is currently nowhere to be found. The company owes up to RMB100m in debts, with

crewmembers unpaid for most of this year. Hengrui Shipping owns a fleet of 11 vessels, a mix of bulkers and boxships, with a total capacity of more than 100,000 dwt, mainly focusing on domestic routes.

Wuhu Shihui Jianghai Shipping, the largest private shipping company in Anhui province, has gone into bankruptcy. Like Hengrui (above), the boss of the company has done a runner.

Founded in 1989, the firm operated nearly 100 ships mainly on domestic trades.

Hainan PO Shipping suspended operations in late September.

Top management at the containerline called for local government support and restructuring. Li Kelin, former China Shipping supremo, had stepped down as chairman earlier.

Wisdom Marine plans to be the first Taiwanese company to list in London. The listing at the London Stock Exchange is expected to be completed before 2014. The company currently operates a fleet of 91 vessels. Three new ships will be added into the fleet by the end of 2013.

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Sabrina Chao takes the chair

Grand China Logistics In contrite mood

Family courage CC Hsu negotiates the downturn

Righting the ship Exclusive interview with Cosco’s Ma Zehua

Handling charter disputes in China

ASEAN links

Shanghai banking

“The Chinese shipping industry is facing an extremely severe test”

“Our industry needs to raise its entry barriers” — Kenneth Koo SInoShIp AUTUMn 2012

Transport priorities under Xi Jinping

— Zhang Shouguo, CSA I

Project shippers focus on Africa Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism head speaks Hosco’s Gao Yangming: China’s scrapping champion E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

Pacific Basin ceo interview Crewing poll HK port strike fallout Crystal ball time: Chinese shipping in 2030

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

DOWN TOOLS Greenfield yards from shipping’s boom years are closing en masse

The ghost of shipbuilding’s past Beijing correspondent Li Dong looks at how the state is using refund guarantees to slim down the shipbuilding sector. Up to 50% of the nation’s yards face the axe Walking around Taizhou in the southeast of the country is akin to being in a ghost town. Home to vast numbers of greenfield sites that sprouted up during shipping’s boom years, giant cranes now have ceased to move, yard entrances have been bricked over and unemployment has soared. The Zhejiang city has been decimated by the swing in shipping fortunes with around 80% of the 190 yards there closed or about to shutter. Taizhou is by no means alone.

Beijing has used the issue of refund guarantees to cull China’s bloated shipbuilding scene. A clear pattern has emerged this year that favours large state owned shipbuilders over smaller, private ones, such as those in Taizhou; the nation’s shipbuilding industry is slim lining fast, to the relief of many a shipowner.

Banks, led by Export-Import Bank of China (Cexim) and the China Development Bank, are now generally more cautious in granting refund guarantees, especially to some of the smaller private yards. The reason they are less forthcoming stems partly from the fact that

some banks have been burned and have had to pay out refunds to owners where yards have defaulted (often paying interest at as much as 8-9%). There has also been a policy driven element as the government has made much noise about not supporting inefficient, lossmaking industries of which shipping was used as an example. An easy way to withdraw support for unfavoured yards is to ensure the banks do not grant them refund guarantees as they will then be unable to take orders.

The strategic yards (mainly state owned and a few large private yards) have continued to get refund guarantees without too many problems but for the smaller yards this has become much harder to get.

“Anything that restricts Chinese shipbuilding capacity is

4

Percentage of China’s yards that have received orders this year

good for the market,” one Hong Kong shipowner comments to SinoShip.

China’s shipbuilding figures make for sombre reading. While China has taken more orders than Korea or Japan in 2013, less than one in five of the nation’s 1,600 yards have received new contracts.

Reuters figures show that around 60 state-owned and private shipyards won about $10.5bn worth of contracts from foreign and domestic shipowners for vessels totalling 21.2m dwt in the first half of this year.

The second half of the year has been brisk in ordering activity but only to a chosen few. Every other yard’s orderbook is either extinguished or on the verge of running out. The China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) predicts up to half of the nation’s 1,600 shipbuilders will have folded by 2015.

This August, China’s State Council issued a three-year plan to upgrade and restructure the troubled shipbuilding industry.

Shipbuilders will be encouraged to develop high value-added ships.

“Restructuring and technology upgrading will be the focus of the shipbuilding industry in

the next few years, to control the oversupply of low-end ships and boost technology competence in producing high-end ships,” says Nie Lijuan, deputy secretary-general of CANSI. Amid the harsh shipbuilding market, the Chinese government will offer favourable tax policies and technical assistance to “capable” shipyards to help them develop greener ships.

“The capable shipyards are to receive tax incentives and technical support for greener ships,” says Chen Bin, an official from the National Development and Reform Commission.

The development of offshore engineering products will be treated as a priority as well to diversify the Chinese shipyards’ products, Chen adds.

Another looming issue for the yards to face is the nation’s currency. With the appreciation of the renminbi, and the depreciation of the Japanese yen and Korean won, the price advantage of Chinese shipyards is loosening, CANSI said in a recent report. Shipyard ghost towns will proliferate.

Sinoship Autumn 2013

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OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■

Jacked up At Marine Money’s Singapore conference Sam Chambers hears how cheap prices, aggressive financing terms and early delivery slots have seen China surpass Singapore in jack-up construction This year is a “momentous” one for China’s offshore ambitions as a mixture of available slots, cheap prices and generous financing will see the People’s Republic surpass Singapore in the number of drilling rigs built, according to research from Religare Capital Markets.

Speaking at Marine Money’s Singapore event this September Vincent Fernando, a director at Religare, said China accounted for 34% of the market share for drilling rigs in the year to date, with Singapore on 23%, the first time China has surpassed the Lion Republic in this field.

Korea is still top with 41%.

“In 2013, China will have stolen the market share crown from Singapore,” Fernando said. This huge change happened far faster than most expected, he admitted.

Chinese yards are offering very aggressive payment

terms — with just 10% needed up front, where as the best that Singapore can offer is 28%.

Chinese prices for jack-ups have been reported as around 30% cheaper than in Singapore.

“Chinese yards are not focused on short term profits.

They just want to shift the market to China,” Fernando said, noting how since they were predominantly state run they had very deep pockets.

This has begun to impact Singaporean shipbuilders’ financials, with both Keppel and Sembcorp mentioning Chinese competition impacting margins in their latest quarterly results.

“The downside of margins of Singaporean yards will get worse going forward,” Fernando warned.

Audra Low, head of

origination and structures at Clifford Capital, warned that Singaporean yards would find it “very hard” to challenge those who are not profit orientated.

Despite the sudden leap by Chinese yards, quality remains an issue, said Jesper Andresen, ceo of Axis Offshore.

“Building is much harder in China. China is not for everybody,” he said, suggesting owners ordering in the People’s Republic need to have extensive shipbuilding experience and a big team on the ground. Very few yards are undertaking novel designs, he also noted. “I don’t think innovation and China is a good match,” he said.

There are some yards, however, that are offering higher spec rigs in China. Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co (DSIC), for instance, is now well versed in building the JU2000E type, while Cosco Nantong and CIMC Raffles have a track record in cylindrical rig construction.

Panellists also rated Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding (SWS) as a top rig destination.

Chinese yards are not focused on short term profits

30%

Price differential for jack-ups between China and Singapore It is not simply down to price for this year’s astonishing turnaround. Aksel Olesen, managing director of Pareto Securities Asia, maintained that investors still favour Singapore, but the problem is that the earliest slots of the Southeast Asian nation’s land constrained yards is in 2016, where as China still has 2015 slots.

Fernando concurred, saying: “Singapore does not have the land capacity at its yards to compete.”

Olesen maintained: “The Chinese will dominate in the years to come.”

The leading offshore players in China have also poached staff from Singapore and Korea to boost their capabilities.

A silver lining lining for Singapore was offered by Jens Taubken, vice president at DVB bank, who noted importantly that their rigs command a higher price in resales.

Sinoship Autumn 2013

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■ ■ ■ Finance

China won’t bank on loans Paul French heads to Hubei to highlight the precarious state of the nation’s banking sector. Is there a flight of capital in the offing?

From the outside looking in China’s banks look pretty healthy — announcing record profits and healthy loan books — deposits still outstrip lending. However, many analysts believe that inside the industry its heart is rotten.

On a recent trip through Hubei province in central China I spoke with bankers in the city of Yichang, a city that is, in many ways, living Xi Jinping’s ‘China Dream’ with both large doses of state investment and an apparently thriving private economy based largely on manufacturing and healthcare provision.

While enjoying the good times, bankers there were more cautious than the more bullish ordinary citizens. They had been recipients of large amounts of cash from China’s 2009 RMB9.6trn ($1.568trn) lending programme as part its economic stimulus package and also of easy loans from the state banks to promote job creation in the area, which is now home to many hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the Three Gorges Dam project. On both counts — stimulus and private lending — they believed it could only be a matter of time before the big leap in economic growth these loans provided would bounce back onto the banks’ balance sheets as a significant rise in bad loans.

There’s record profits but nervousness of a collapse around the corner This it the paradox of Chinese banking — record profits but nervousness of a collapse around the corner.

Take the state bank ICBC as a prime example. ICBC, the country’s, biggest lender by market value, is representative of this divergence — it has been marked down by 20% over 2009 even though ICBC’s profits have grown 80% during the same period.

The Beijing government says foreign analysts are overcautious and that the sector is robust and secure. However, 10 years ago when China last experienced a banking crisis the cost of recpaitalising the system was

horrendous, but manageable.

This time around, some fear it may be disastrously near tipping not just the banking sector, but the entire Chinese economy, into negative growth.

Those who see the glass as half full point to the fact that loan growth is growing faster than defaults — therefore the debt is manageable. This indicates that money is being lent at record rates but that businesses are successful and repaying their loans. However, bank loan data tends to lag more general economic data and, with China’s economy slowing down at present, the number of defaulters will

China Banks — Deposits and Loans, 2009-2013 (RMB trn)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Deposits of financial institutions 59.8 71.8 80.9 91.7 103.7 Loans of financial institutions 40.0 47.9 54.8 63.0 72.4 Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

12

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* forecast

rise in the coming months and years as the effects of the slowdown filter through. One Chinese brokerage estimates that non-performing loans (NPLs) could increase by sevenfold from the current level of RMB500bn. These potential bad loans could wipe out 50% of the banking sectors’ total RMB8000bn of capital.

So is now the time to go to China for financing given that, whatever the future of NPLs, the banks are seemingly profitable and lending?

Many analysts would probably caution waiting a little while. Beijing may be publicly unconcerned about debt, but privately they are rumoured to be preparing a package of substantial reforms to the financial system to address the increasing risks from escalating debt.

While we don’t know the details yet we know that a lot will be to do with local government debt and Beijing assuming responsibility for social security- and healthcare-related debt. However, analysts also expect currency depreciation for exports to soften the harsh adjustment from corporate deleveraging that would ensue. This would mean cuts in interest rates and currency depreciation in the not-too-distant future.

In short this could stabilise some areas of debt and cool the system, but will mean slower bank loan growth in the future.

And there’s the paradox again for borrowers and lenders alike — stability is good and will reassure the markets, but it will also further slow lending and, potentially, economic growth.

Commodities ■ ■ ■

Shock and ore at cape jump Mark Downing tries to put the sudden capesize jump into perspective China is now the world’s largest consumer and producer of steel, yielding more in the past decade than the previous sixty years. But with a maturing economy, government reforms and reuse of scrap, China’s appetite is waning just as the global production capacity of iron ore surges towards severe oversupply. The current restocking that has seen capesize rates jump is unlikely to be sustainable.

China now consumes twothirds of the global seaborne trade of iron ore predominantly from the big three producers BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale. The biggest miners currently bask in margins exceeding 60% owing to significant economies of scale facilitating low production costs of $30-$50 per tonne. But smaller miners and new entrants have much greater exposure to price volatility with costs of around $100. Nonetheless, costs for all are likely to rise as workers and capital are in short supply and the richest deposits are becoming harder to tap.

From a paltry 69m tonnes a decade ago, China’s imports reached a record 743m last year, and at a similar year-over-year growth rate of 8.4% will reach just over 800m in 2013. China’s 2012 steel consumption was 910m tonnes and may peak at 1bn tonnes by 2030, according to BHP and Rio Tinto.

Iron ore prices shot up tenfold in a decade peaking at $190 per tonne in 2011, buoyed

by Beijing’s stimulus package before levelling off. Last autumn’s economic softening dropped prices to a three-year low of around $85, but prices recovered to $130 as the mills overdid destocking. A July Reuters poll estimates an average price of $126 this year which

HOT SECTOR Steel output in China is up 10% this year Goldman Sachs forecasts could drop to $80 by 2015 until some 200m tonnes of seaborne supply is withdrawn.

“A large amount of new iron ore from Australia and Brazil will come online…this will put pressure on spot iron ore prices,” Jeffrey Landsberg, president of Commodore Research & Consultancy, tells SinoShip.

“The extra iron ore coming on should put iron ore prices over the longer-term below $120 per tonne, which will price out many smaller Chinese iron ore miners.

This means China will produce less iron ore and import more… great for the capesize market.”

The skyrocketing prices spurred on the big miners to go all out expanding production capacity. The big three plus Fortescue are expected to reach an annual capacity of 945m tonnes by year-end, and may soon reach a 1bn from additional expansion. But this new capacity is entering the market just as demand sags, likely swinging towards a surplus of

3.3m tonnes next year, estimates Morgan Stanley.

“We are quite bearish on iron ore prices in the medium to long term. However, seaborne volumes will probably remain high on the back of decreasing domestic production. We are expecting a price sub-$100 after a couple of years,” says Raghu Raghunath, head of chartering at Hong Kong’s Noble Chartering.

On September’s sudden leap

$490bn Combined debts of China’s top 86 steel mills

in capesize earnings Khalid Hashim, managing director of Thailand’s Precious Shipping, reckons China’s iron ore restocking is longer and larger than many have suggested. Inventory at Chinese ports is 25% less than last year and steel output is 10% up over last year, Hashim says.

However, as China’s exportled manufacturing boom cools off, Beijing is seeking to scale down real estate and infrastructure investment while it imposes restrictive policies that force steel mill closures ostensibly for “environmental conservation”, although more likely because of huge debts.

Further, the increasing use of scrap steel—currently peaking at 120m tonnes a year—may further curb demand, according to the financial services company Macquarie Group.

The market outlook for iron ore is bleak as there are few promising alternate markets.

Some suggest India, considering a projected doubling of urbanisation over the next 15 years, but its future needs could be met with its own abundant high-grade reserves.

For the long term, China will still be the largest market for iron ore, but without the same demand growth coupled by supply constraints to inflate another commodity price bubble.

Sinoship Autumn 2013

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■ ■ ■ LOGISTICS

The iron silk road Jason Jiang checks the rail timetables of a number of new intercontinental links to Europe A host of inland Chinese cities are rekindling the Silk Road era with thousands of kilometres of tracks laid down yoking the People’s Republic with Europe. However, take up thus far has been limited amid temptingly low container shipping freight rates and the economics of the various rail lines are yet to make sense with issues regarding empty backhaul routes back to China. Still, such inconveniences have not stopped a host of cities taking the rail plunge.

Chief among the intercontinental rail lines is the YuXinOu (Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe) International Railway, starting in Chongqing, crossing the Alataw Pass into Kazakhstan, and then heading through Russia, Belarus and Poland before arriving in Duisburg, Germany. The railway started normal operations last year.

Via the new railway, it only takes 16 days on average to transport goods from China to the heart of Europe, 20 days shorter than ocean shipping from China’s eastern coast.

Moreover, from Chongqing to Europe, customs declaration and inspection will only be processed one time, adding much more efficiencies for shippers.

“The opening of YuXinOu railway has changed the traditional foreign trade pattern which relies on the eastern coastal cities in China, and Chongqing has become an important transit point for export cargoes to Europe,” says an official from YuXinOu Logistics.

China’s largest inland logistics port project, Chongqing Guoyuan Port, started trial operations in 14

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LONG WAY Shipping a container from Zhengzhou to Hamburg by rail is 25 days quicker than by sea

August. The RMB10bn project has a designed annual handing capacity of 30m tons. The port currently is building a railway which will connect it to the Chongqing-Europe railway by 2014, and it will become an important gateway port on the Yangtze River to Europe.

Although at the moment only 4% of Chongqing’s imports and exports are transported by rail, 93% by sea and 3% by air, it is already a dramatic increase compared to that of 0.6% in 2010 before the YuXinOu railway was built.

“We are now trying to attract more cargoes on the way back and also lower the logistics costs to make the route sustainable, as currently most of the time, we have to ship the empty containers back via sea which is a waste of resources,” the official says.

In July, China and Belarus announced plans to establish a series of strategic partnerships including a China-Belarus Industrial Park project which will be a special economic zone to enhance trade and investment. China is building an entire city in the forests near the Belarusian capital, Minsk, to create a manufacturing springboard between the European Union and Russia. The estimated cost

on the project is $5bn, China will invest 60% on the project and Belarus will take care of the remainder. The project is expected to start construction this November. Currently some European logistics companies have already set their eyes on building transfer links from the park to the Baltic Sea. Zhengzhou, an emerging business and logistic centre in central China, started a Europe rail service to Hamburg in July.

on demand. “Our goal is a daily service,” he says.

The Zhengzhou-Europe freight route will be joined by three other cargo rail services by the end of this year. Shippers in Henan province will be able to transport goods to Almaty in Kazakhstan, Moscow and the port city of Klaipeda in Lithuania through this route.

Zhengzhou officials say the cost of shipping a container by sea to Hamburg stands at $5,000, while by rail the cost is $7,000, but up to 25 days quicker. Air freight is around four and half times the price of rail.

A new rail freight service has also been running since April from Chengdu. Run by Chinese-Polish joint venture, YHF Logistics, the weekly service operates from Chengdu crossing Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus to Lodz in central Poland. Plans are afoot to make the service a daily one.

Shenyang in Liaoning is also

The economics of the rail lines are yet to make sense with issues over pricing and empty backhaul routes DB Schenker, the transport and logistics arm of Deutsche Bahn, is the rail route’s main partner outside China. It provides gauge transfer and technical services through its service network in Central Asia and East Europe after the trains leave China.

“The growing Chinese goods traffic, together with the ongoing shift of productionintensive industries to the Chinese hinterland, offers a lot of potential,” says Rüdiger Grube, chairman of Deutsche Bahn, adding that Schenker plans to expand the service depending

running a service to Europe.

However, not every service has worked out. A rail line between Wuhan and Pardubice in the Czech Republic was suspended after the first train set off in October last year. Complicated clearance procedures and relatively high costs were cited for the cancellation.

Despite these setbacks more Chinese cities including Xi’an, Yingkou and Suzhou are now looking to establish railway links to Europe, while the port of Lianyungang is bolstering its rail links to Kazakhstan.

CRUISE ■ ■ ■

Yangtze calling Katherine Si charts the history of cruising on China’s longest river It’s one of the classic trips to do in China and one that is gaining ever more infrastructure. An old Chinese proverb says, “If you have not travelled up the mighty Yangtze river, then you have not been everywhere.”

Flowing 6,418 km from the Tibetan plateau in Qinghai before washing out into the East China Sea just north of Shanghai, the Yangtze splits China between north and south and is the world’s third longest river.

Proper cruise shipping along the river did not start until the Deng Xiaopeng era.

The first generation of Yangtze cruises was

represented by the maiden voyage of the Shen Nv in 1981.

After nearly three decades of development — with huge dredging and the creation of the engineering feat that is the Three Gorges Dam, the river welcomed the maiden voyage of the Victoria Jenna in September 2009, ushering in a new era of luxury cruise travel; the river was now home to big ships.

In the five years to the end of 2015, the Three Gorges region will spend RMB121.6bn on developing cruise travel infrastructure.

As the starting point for Yangtze cruises, the mountainous city of Chongqing is

The past two years have seen many new ships come into operation after a period of slow growth

gearing up for more visitors.

The city is planning to invest around RMB2bn to build two new cruise homeports by 2020.

The past two years have seen many river cruise ships put into operation. Eight new

large cruiseships have entered service in the past 12 months alone.

According to the Chongqing tourism bureau there were 40 large cruiseships operating on the river last year with passenger volumes hitting 493,000.

“The past two years has seen many new ships come into operation after a period of slow growth,” comments Wang Dingguo, deputy director of the Chongqing tourist bureau. However, he cautions that the market has not developed as well as some had expected.

Among the global major inland cruise travel markets, the voyage along the Yangtze is the longest but the number of cruiseships on it are the fewest.

As it stands, the Yangtze river cruise industry is facing overcapacity. Due to the weak global economy, the number of foreign tourists has declined. The boom in domestic tourists has brought around a significant drop in service quality. Luxury cruise passenger numbers have severely declined in the past 18 months leading some experts to suggest that some of the new ships on the river best look further afield and enter international routes to Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia.

Loss-making terminals The hubris surrounding China’s cruise industry has hit home with red ink everywhere. Despite so much bullishness on the sector, the five major Chinese cruise ports are all in the red, according to information from the China Cruise and Yacht Industry Association.

China has five cruise terminals in operation, two in Shanghai, as well as in Tianjin, Xiamen and Sanya. Despite the number of cruise passengers and voyages increasing in recent years, all these terminals are running at a loss, according to Zheng Weihang, deputy president of the association.

Meanwhile, many cities such as Dalian, Qingdao, Haikou and Nanjing are accelerating plans for the construction of cruise terminals, which will send the market into severe overcapacity, Zheng warns.

Sinoship Autumn 2013

15

■ ■ ■ Profile

The man with the canal plan Wang Jing, a telecoms tycoon, has ambitions to build a waterway across Nicaragua. Jason Jiang checks out the realities in our exclusive cover story

T

he Chinese take on massive infrastructure projects with insouciance these days.

Nothing is too big or too tricky. Nevertheless, the plans Wang Jing has for an interoceanic canal across Nicaragua represent the greatest construction challenge of the 21st century to date.

The mysterious, baby-faced Wang made the headlines this summer announcing plans to build a rival to the Panama Canal. Little is known about the man and how he made his millions. He’s 41 and comes from Beijing, that much information about his personal life is all that he is ready to impart to SinoShip in an exclusive interview. However, he’s happy to talk about his new mega project, the Nicaragua Canal.

Plans for a canal across the Central American nation have existed for hundreds of years. King Philip II of Spain ordered a study into the idea back in 1567.

In June this year, Nicaragua’s National Assembly approved a bill to grant a 50-year concession to a newly formed Hong Kong-registered company, the Hong Kong Nicaragua Canal Development Investment Co (HKND) to build the canal across the Central American country. The concession would be renewable for another 50 years. The Nicaragua government has predicted the construction of the canal will boost the country’s GDP by up to 10.8% in 2014 and by as much as 15% in 2015.

It has become imperative to develop and construct a wider and deeper interoceanic canal Wang, chairman of HKND, is also the chairman and largest shareholder of Xinwei Telecom, which won a deal in 2012 to operate cellphone and internet services in 16

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Nicaragua. He says the idea for the canal came about when bidding for the telecom project in the country.

Wang believes that between now and 2030, the volume of global seaborne trade will have grown by 240% with ships getting ever larger. Between 1996 and the present, the world’s largest containerships have nearly tripled in size and the economics of shipping suggest the trend will continue, Wang reckons.

“Given continued trends in both trade volumes and ship sizes it appears that the Panama Canal by itself will be insufficient to meet the requirements of 21st century global trade,” Wang says.

“As a result, it has become imperative to develop and construct a wider and deeper interoceanic canal to support bigger load weights and generate greater efficiency,” he adds.

HKND has assembled a global team of experts and analysts to go through every aspect of the huge project. Among the

latest recruits is Hong Kong-based analyst Charles de Trenck, a contributor to this title.

HKND aims to break ground on the waterway by the end of 2014.

Construction will take five years.

The route of the canal will start at the port of Brito in the Pacific, cross Lake Nicaragua and finish at Bluefields on the Caribbean.

At 240 km in length Wang’s $40bn design is three and a half times as long as the Panama Canal, which is undergoing a $5bn expansion at the moment.

Wang is not concerned by the fact that the Nicaragua Canal would be much longer than the Panama Canal.

“The Nicaragua Canal will be complementary to the Panama Canal.

The Nicaragua Canal will be able to accommodate the ships that are too big to make use of the expanded Panama Canal,” he says, adding that the Nicaragua Canal will present large ships a significantly shorter route than going around Cape Horn as well as a more efficient route given that the Nicaragua Canal is hundreds of kilometres north of Panama.

While Wang is clearly wealthy, the $40bn price tag of his waterway dream is enormous. He remains cagey on the where the cash will come for the canal, merely concluding: “We are already making good progress on the financing but at this point, it is premature to go into further details.”

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

HKND

Founded this year the Hong Kong Nicaragua Canal Development Investment Co aims to build a 240 km waterway across the Central American nation as a rival to the Panama Canal. Headed by Beijing telecoms tycoon Wang Jing, projected costs of construction are $40bn.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Staunching the red ink Times are very tough for those involved in China’s domestic bulk trades. Chu Min, president of Ningbo Marine, discusses the market and how best to avoid the worst of it

O

ne of China’s larger coastal bulker owners is taking a very cautious approach to business. Ningbo Marine, which was taken over last year by utility firm Zhejiang Energy, has been slimming its fleet this year as it battles to get back into the black.

Zhejiang Energy has said it will integrate two of its shipping subsidiaries — Fuxing Shipping and Tongli Shipping — into Ningbo Marine in the next five years, and Ningbo Marine will be its only platform for its domestic shipping business.

Ningbo Marine reported a net loss of RMB22.43m in the first half of this year.

The fleet today stands at 19 vessels equating to 913,000 dwt. Another two old ships are set to be auctioned off shortly, the company citing their high fuel consumption as rationale for offloading.

Chu Min, the president of the shipping line since 2003, says the company’s “primary strategy” is to sign COA deals with major clients. Since Zhejiang Energy became the controlling shareholder, this has in turn brought plenty more COA deals, helping keep the fleet busier.

“Currently the company is trying to develop short shipping routes on the Yangtze river and Bohai Rim,” says Chu. “At present, the shipping market is still not very optimistic,” he admits, adding: “The domestic economy is still growing slowly,

China’s coastal shipping sector slumped to a historic low in the first half, and is unlikely to see any improvement in the second half

the manufacturing industry is also affected which has led to the decreasing consumption of industrial electricity, thus the shipping volume of our main cargo, coal, is also decreasing.”

China’s coastal business is very tough at the moment. China’s coastal shipping sector slumped to a historic low in the first half, and is unlikely to see any improvement in the second half, according to a recent release by the Ministry of Transport (MOT).

Weak demand, excessive capacity and the overall depression in the international shipping sector are major reasons for the decline, and some small shipping companies may get phased out in the second half due to limited capital, the MOT said.

“Some ships that used to focus on international routes may turn to coastal routes, making the coastal shipping sector worse,” an official from the ministry said.

Chu says the company is trying to get through the difficulties by expanding its ship chartering business, actively seeking financing, optimising its fleet structure and forging more strategic cooperations.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Ningbo Marine Founded in 2002 as a state run entity focusing on the coastal trades, primarily coal. Taken over last year by private utility firm, Zhejiang Energy. Continues to post losses, but has staunched the red ink in recent months, by slim lining the fleet, with older tonnage offloaded. Current fleet size is 19 ships equating to 913,000 dwt.

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■ ■ ■ Profile

Slim line vision Xu Zunwu has the task of making Cosco’s dry bulk division profitable and more nimble, a tricky proposition

A

t the end of 2011, mighty Cosco Group, hemorrhaging red ink like a horror movie stunt double, established Cosco Bulk Shipping Group through the integration of all its bulk resources in a bid to staunch losses. The amalgamation saw the coming together of Cosco Bulk Carrier, Cosco (Hong Kong) Shipping and Cosco Qingdao, forming the world’s largest bulker fleet, headquartered in Tianjin, consisting of 230 self-owned bulkers with

Owned fleets by cargo owners usually end in failure 18

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a total capacity of 18m dwt. It also controls over 400 vessels with a total capacity exceeding 35m dwt.

Xu Zunwu was appointed general manager and vice chairman of the bulk shipping giant.

After his graduation from Shanghai Maritime University in the late 1970s, Xu joined Cosco Guangzhou in 1982, his 30-year-career in Cosco included becoming deputy general manager of Cosco Guangzhou, managing director of Cosco (Hong Kong) Shipping, and managing director of Cosco Bulk Carrier.

Despite operating among the most diverse range of ships in its fleet, Xu says bulk carriers remain the most important to Cosco.

“The shipping market is still in the doldrums,” Xu admits. There are an increasing number of non-traditional shipowners ordering ships, he says, and some large cargo owners monopolising the spot market. “From a long term view, the international dry bulk market is still in a periodic downturn, however, China remains the main driving force of the global dry bulk market, I think the market outlook is cautiously optimistic,” he tells SinoShip.

To deal with the market downturn, Cosco Bulk Shipping has been implementing a new fleet strategy which is “changing from owning vessels to controlling vessels”, according to Xu. Cosco Bulk Shipping has become very active on the charter market.

Cosco has been dramatically slimming down its bulker fleet this year as new top management does all it can to get the group back into profit and avoid the possible embarrassment of being deslisted in Shanghai for being in the red for a third consecutive year. To this end, Cosco is no longer the world’s largest dry bulk operator, having been surpassed by Japan’s Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK). Cosco, however, does remain the top dry bulk owner by some distance.

Xu says cargo owners should strengthen their collaboration with shipping companies to establish efficient services and benefit each other.

“Currently, lots of cargo owners are taking advantage of the low shipbuilding prices to establish their own fleets or expand their shipping capacity,” he relates, adding: “I think this is a dangerous situation.

If you look back, owned fleets by cargo owners usually end in failure, so a longer term vision is needed now to establish long and stable relations between shipping companies and cargo owners.”

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Cosco Bulk Shipping Formed nearly two years ago to bring together the disparate parts of China’s top dry bulk shipping empire. Cosco Bulk is the world’s largest dry bulk owner and the second largest operator after NYK.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW CANSI The China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) represents the nation’s top yards. Membership used to be in excess of 2,000 but has dropped dramatically during the downturn by half and is set to get smaller still.

Yard clear out

Katherine Si catches up with Wang Jinlian, the head of the nation’s shipbuilding association

T

he clear out of weaker shipyards in China will continue and there is little chance of a pick up for the sector in the coming two to three years, says the secretary general of the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI).

Wang Jinlian acknowledges the “inappropriate structure of the industry” in an exclusive interview with SinoShip as well as the slow development of vital supporting industries.

Wang admits that Chinese yards’ “creative ability is weak”, and the nation has failed to catch enough orders for high-end products.

“The elimination of small and low-tech yards is inevitable,” says the shipbuilding supremo.

“The blind expansion of capacity and

product types is not wise,” he says, specifically admonishing smaller yards for trying to aim for the high-end market.

“With the development of the shipbuilding industry, the high-end market will be the key for shipbuilders’ competition,” Wang says, adding, “China still has something to learn from Japan and Korea on this sector.”

Down, but by no means out is very much the message from CANSI headquarters where Wang says ambitious government goals are attainable.

In the coming three years, Chinese shipbuilders should aim to secure 25% of the

global market share for high-tech ships and one-fifth for the global offshore engineering market.

The other big thing to watch for among Chinese builders in the coming three years is significant expansion overseas, Wang says, with acquisitions of yards and design firms high up on the agenda.

Wang reckons newbuild prices have finally bottomed out but with the shipping industry showing “no sign of recovery” it will take another two to three years before shipbuilders are back in healthy territory.

Wang is good at his job, representing the best interests of his membership — the hard-pressed shipyards. To this end, he has been calling on regulators and financial institutions to come in and help out.

Wang has made representations to many bodies recently including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China Development Bank and other banks to up their financial assistance to this hard hit sector.

In the boom times owners would put up to 40% to 60% down in prepayments when ordering. This has dropped to as little as 10% to 15% heaping huge pressure on the yards.

From January to July this year, China completed shipbuilding volumes of 35.49m dwt, a 7.7% decrease; with new received orders at 11.64m dwt, sharply down 50.7% comparing to the same period last year. The clear out is set to continue.

The elimination of small and low-tech yards is inevitable Sinoship Autumn 2013

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Ports ■ ■ ■

Vessels will still have to be owned by Chinese interests to operate same country transhipment

Big hype, little detail Wang Fenglei reins in her excitement about the brand new pilot free trade zone in Shanghai

T

he fact that Gao Hucheng (pictured), the nation’s commerce minister, was charged with opening Shanghai’s free trade zone at the end of September spoke volumes.

The FTZ’s biggest proponent, premier Li Keqiang, gave the ceremony a miss, adding credence to the feeling that the zone had been rushed into existence. The pilot zone launched but with not as many freedoms as had been hoped for. Hong Kong — China’s

trading gateway — can rest easy for now.

The 29 sq km area would help “implement a more active opening-up strategy”, minister Gao said.

The key initiatives at the FTZ are easing of restrictions on foreign investment, getting interest rates set by the markets and allowing the renminbi to be traded freely with other currencies. Eighteen sectors including shipping have been allowed to set up in the FTZ. “We think the importance of the

Qingdao, the world’s most productive port Anyone who has visited Qingdao port in the past five years cannot fail to have been impressed with the high tech set up of the Shandong facility. Entering the main building visitors are greeted by a phalanx of screens, seemingly every nook and cranny of this sprawling hub covered and automated. The port this July celebrated being crowned the most productive port in the world, according to an index produced by the Journal of Commerce (JOC).

The survey is the first to rank ports according to productivity measures, and not just volumes handled.

The database, which was five years in development, was created to help elevate what for several years have been stagnant

overall productivity levels in the container port industry, according to ports and carriers. Based on data provided by a majority of the world’s largest containerlines, the database measures container lifts per hour achieved at ports worldwide.

Qingdao was the hands-down winner of the survey, but remarkably the top five were all mainland Chinese. Ningbo was second followed by Dalian, Shanghai and Tianjin. Indeed, from the top 20 around the world fully 14 were from Greater China.

“The results are redolent of the fact that China has invested more than anyone else in port development in the past 20 years,” comments one Hong Kong transport analyst, adding: “By mixing international

Shanghai FTZ will surely surpass any other existing special zones,” Ting Lu, China economist at Merrill Lynch, said in a note.

“However, we believe markets need to curb their enthusiasm if they hope the FTZ will become a strong competitor for Hong Kong… [or will] rapidly unveil a new era of comprehensive reforms for the whole China,” added Lu. Jefferies, in a note to investors, reckoned that the FTZ may eventually improve the financial infrastructure for trading but the volume of trading will be driven by the end demand of the cargoes, not infrastructure.

Foreign carriers hoping that the FTZ would allow them to tranship in China are in for a disappointment.

“Vessels will still have to be owned by Chinese interests to be allowed to operate same country transhipment,” Jefferies noted.

Specifically for shipping, foreign lines will be allowed to hold larger stakes in joint venture global shipping enterprises. The current limit is 49%. Foreign shipmanagers, meanwhile, can set up solely-funded international shipmanagement companies in the zone.

Tianjin, Qianhai near Shenzhen, Henqin near Macau and Nansha to the south of Guangzhou are set to be the next free trade zones.

Top China Ports Year-to-date growth rate January-July 2013 vs. January-July 2012 22.6

Dalian 大连 15.8

Suzhou 苏州

15.2

Xiamen 厦门 11.4

Lianyungang 连云港 10.1

Qingdao 青岛

9.5

Tianjin 天津 6.8

Ningbo-Zhoushan 宁波舟山 3.4

Guangzhou 广州

3.2

Shanghai 上海 Shenzhen 深圳 0

2.4 5

10

15

20

25

Source:Shanghai Shipping Exchange

operators, plenty of available land and very deep pockets, the Chinese have become the exponents of quick container handling.”

This year has seen a pattern emerge whereby ports in northern China around the Bohai Rim have led growth-wise, with Dalian consistently ahead month after month (see graph), while growth has been moderate in the Yangtze river delta and slow in the south.

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Chinese ports able to handle valemaxes Dalian Lianyungang Qingdao Tianjin Ningbo-Zhoushan Zhanjiang Caofeidian

Ready for some big ships The valemax saga is closing. Chinese ports are about to welcome the largest bulkers afloat

B

razilian miner Vale would have been glad to hear of the news of the retirement of Wei Jiafu as chairman of Cosco Group in the summer. Wei had been the most vocal and powerful opponent of Vale’s giant 400,000 dwt bulkers, dubbed valemaxes, calling in China.

As we go to press, SinoShip expects the restriction on these controversial ships to be lifted.

The Ministry of Transport (MOT) in August sent letters to the China

Shipowners’ Association, China Ports & Harbours Association, China Maritime Pilots Association, Maritime Safety Administration, and relevant government departments and local port companies, requesting feedback on future administrative measures for the safe docking of ships.

In the letter, MOT said it was vital ports kept up to date with the trend of vessels getting larger and maintaining safe operations. The ministry also suggested allowing

Ningbo-Zhoushan surpasses Shanghai Shanghai is on course to retain its boxport crown in 2013 for a fourth straight year, although it may be run close by Singapore after some stuttering months. However, the surprise news is that the financial metropolis looks set to be eclipsed by its neighbour to the south, Ningbo-Zhoushan (pictured), in

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the overall tonnage stakes.

A recent report issued by the Shanghai International Shipping Institute showed that NingboZhoushan, by common consent the finest natural deepwater port in China, continues to show a robust rise in cargo throughput with double-digit growth in

bulk carriers larger than 300,000 dwt to call at Chinese ports as long as safety can be guaranteed.

The MOT had barred the megaships from the country’s ports in early 2012, describing the ships as “a question of monopoly and unfair competition” and citing security concerns after the first 400,000 dwt valemax docked at Dalian in December 2011. Another valemax called at Lianyungang this April.

Vale began commissioning a total of 35 giant bulkers back in 2008, each ship costing more than $100m.

SinoShip reckons that besides Dalian and Lianyungang, the ports of Qingdao, Tianjin, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Zhanjiang and Caofeidian all have the infrastructure in place to accept valemaxes straight away.

Other ports will follow suit. For instance, Meizhouwan port announced plans for the construction of a 400,000 dwt berth on the same day in August that the MOT issued its letter backtracking on previous megaship restrictions. Clearly, the valemax saga is close to an end.

the second quarter helping it overtake Shanghai and become the world’s top port in total tonnage terms in the first half of the year.

Ningbo-Zhoushan’s 6.7% cumulative growth in the first half of the year was higher than that of Shanghai, which lags behind by more than 11m tonnes.

Ningbo Port is now eyeing a stock listing in Hong Kong.

■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Criminal courts in China want to show the shipping industry that they are more serious than before

Hard line A look at China’s changing approach to foreigners’ traffic misdemeanours

H

istorically, when a foreign master’s traffic offence led to loss of life in China’s waters, the shipowner — or rather insurers — would compensate the victim’s family, but the Chinese criminal court would not bring proceedings against the perpetrator. But in May this year, a Zhejiang court sentenced two Burmese men to imprisonment for a fatal traffic offence, the first case of its kind in China, signalling the nation’s change in attitude to traffic misdemeanours.

During a trip from Shanghai to Ningbo, a Singaporean container vessel collided with a fishing boat, causing the death of four crew and the disappearance of three others. The Burmese second officer’s failure to keep a proper lookout when navigating through a fleet of fishing vessels in low visibility caused the accident. After the crash, the officer made no attempt to rescue any of the crew or slow the vessel down. When the Burmese master learned

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of the incident, he similarly took no steps to help the overboard seafarers and did not report the incident. The court sentenced the officer to three years imprisonment and the master to four.

“This is not the first accident involving the death of Chinese crew [due to the negligence of a foreign master], but this is the first time the Chinese criminal court has

taken action against a foreign master,” says Hongyu Wang, partner of Chinese shipping law firm Wang Jing & Co. In this case, Chinese authorities’ use of criminal proceedings in an incident which would usually be dealt with by civil courts signals a shift to a tougher approach to maritime traffic accidents.

“Recently, there have been more and more accidents of this kind and the criminal courts in China wants to show the shipping industry that they are more serious than before. Now, you are not only required to pay compensation, but you will be accused of criminal liability if you take such a careless approach,” says Wang.

Maritime accidents are on the rise, as the bar to crewing a vessel is lower than before.

“I have been in this industry for 25 years and my impression is the crew onboard the ships are less experienced or less educated than before. In China, 20 years ago, if you wanted to qualify as a master of a ship, you would have to go to navigation college, you have to have several years of sea experience, like five or six years,” says Wang. “Now it’s less strict.

You take the qualification and then two or three years later you become the master.”

Given the courts’ foray into prosecuting overseas crew, if an accident occurs, foreign shipowners and their staff need to ensure they report the incident and take action to rescue any overboard seafarers. Bearing in mind the possibility of criminal liability, the ship’s crew should ensure accurate and factual reporting to any Chinese authorities investigating the accident.

China Maritime Arbitration Commission The China Maritime Arbitration Commission (CMAC) was founded in 1959 in Beijing and can hear all forms of shipping disputes. When a contract, such as a vessel construction agreement or charterparty, is being drafted, the parties may agree to go to court or arbitral body in the event of a dispute.

Although arbitration is widely thought to be more cost effective and quicker,

convention may determine which form of judicial body is used.

“Whether a dispute is to be resolved by court litigation or arbitration would very much depend on the nature of the claim.

For, say, charterparty and shipbuilding disputes, arbitration is common place.

However, for other types of disputes such as claims by bunker or paint suppliers, mortgagee banks, cargo owners for cargo

Law ■ ■ ■

CAUGHT HNA has been in and out of courts more than most. Its cruiseship was arrested in Korea in September

Riding the wave Downturns tend to lead more work for lawyers

W

hile most of China’s shipping players are praying for divine intervention to keep afloat, there are some that are thriving in the melee. Those involved in shipping disputes are having a heyday as the number of conflicts rises amid eroding margins and near bankruptcies.

Shipping dispute lawyers are enjoying a higher case count. British shipping law firm Clyde & Co has seen a 20 to 30% year-onyear increase in disputes. “Cases tend to be a direct result of the poor shipping market and tight cash flow faced by those in the industry,” says Ik Wei Chong, a partner at Clyde & Co. “Examples are disputes involving claims by bunker and paint suppliers, mortgagee banks, crew wages, loss arising from delivery

damage or loss, loss arising from delivery of cargo without original bills of lading, etc, court litigation is more common,” explains Ik Wei Chong, partner at British shipping law firm Clyde & Co. But even for contracts where arbitration is commonly used, CMAC is often not chosen.

Cases tend to be a direct result of the poor shipping market and tight cash flow of cargo without original bills of lading.”

Chinese shipping law firm Wang Jing & Co has logged a similar rise in cases. “We have had a more than 30% increase in dry cases [those involving contractor disputes, e.g. charterparty, bills of lading, cargo clients compared to wet cases that involve accidents],” says Hongyu Wang, partner at Wang Jing & Co. “The charterer tries to walk away from the charterparty — because when they negotiated the charterparty the

“When a charterparty is being negotiated, the parties will agree arbitration in London, Hong Kong, Singapore, but not in China. Because the international shipping industry trusts arbitration in London or in Hong Kong more than in mainland China, because they think the arbitrators are more experienced in dealing with these cases,”

International shipping trusts arbitration in London or Hong Kong more than in mainland China

market was good, now it’s down, so they can’t pay the charterhire or the freight they agreed so they are finding excuses to walk away from the existing contract.”

One of Hong Kong’s newest law firms continues to grow and grow. Fully 50 staff including 15 lawyers left Reed Smith’s Hong Kong arm at the end of 2011 to join the new independent Hong Kong firm Howse Williams Bowers (HWB).

HWB was established by Chris Howse, Chris Williams and Kevin Bowers and has been in operation since 1 January 2012. Howse, a lawyer in Hong Kong since 1981, says that when it comes to independent law firms with maritime expertise in the territory, “We are now it.”

HWB now has 16 partners with the arrival of Jonathan Silver from Norton Rose to focus on ship finance. A seventeenth is in the offing.

The total staff at HWB is now 100, with fee earning staff standing at around 50.

Judging the markets, Howse notes: “Things are picking up on the finance side.

Lots of clients are buying ships. Ship values have hit rock bottom and we will only see them go up again. It is surprising since freight rates are down. There’s a lot going on. It’s surprising really with where rates are at the moment.”

Also thriving amid the gloom are arbitration commissions. “In the year 2000 we had only 20 cases, but in 2009 and last year there were 80 or more cases. After 2008, there was a clear rise in the number of cases,” says Chen Bo, deputy secretary general of the China Maritime Arbitration Commission.

“We saw more disputes relating to newbuild construction and sale contracts … when the market is good, a lot of disputes do not end in arbitration because shipowners want to put their vessels on the market as soon as possible to make money, but when the market is down, then shipowners will find excuses not to purchase a vessel or ask for a discount because the market is not good.”

reckons Hongyu Wang, partner of Chinese shipping law firm Wang Jing & Co. While CMAC is currently not first choice, some in the industry believe it is just a question of time. “It will take time for CMAC to become more well known and recognised, not just within the domestic Chinese shipping fraternity but also among the international arbitration community. Give it time and I am fairly certain it will become more prominent and acceptable,” says Chong.

Sinoship Autumn 2013

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Registries ■ ■ ■

PORT CENTRIC Tianjin is trying to build up a maritime cluster to rival Shanghai

Tianjin to bring owners home The China flag has long been inconvenient to owners. A new secondary register might help, reports Sam Chambers Every major maritime nation eventually gets around to tinkering with its shipping flag system. Secondary registers such as in Korea or Norway are tried, often to mixed success. For China, a land with very restrictive terms for flagging, there has been for the past 16 years an outlet in Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s shipping register has grown in leaps and bounds since reunification in 1997, in no small part to vast numbers of mainland vessels opting for the Special Administrative Region’s flag.

Now, however, Beijing is tinkering with its own second flag in an effort to claw back nationals who have opted for flags of convenience elsewhere. Dongjiang Free Trade Port Zone in Tianjin was given the green light in May to try out a new register, which eases the rigid stipulations on foreign capital and crew. Tianjin is trying hard to become a maritime cluster to rival Shanghai.

The Chinese flag mandates that ships are at least 50% controlled by Chinese capital and they can only use Chinese crew. The Tianjin pilot scheme, however, stipulates that capital from overseas Chinese firms is okay and up to 30% of crew can be foreign.

There’s also simplified registration procedures for ships under finance leases, an

58

Percentage of Chinese ships flagged overseas

increasingly important trend in Chinese shipping.

Other restrictions Chinese-flagged vessels face include the mandatory fact they have to be classed by China Classification Society, insured by Chinese companies, suffer burdensome corporate taxes and comply with the Chinese legal system.

China has tried similar schemes before in a bid to lure foreign flagged vessels back to the motherland. The most recent statistics available from the United Nations show that 58% of China’s tonnage is registered overseas. Typically, what most midto large-sized Chinese firms do is register one vessel in China to retain national status and then flag the rest of the fleet elsewhere, predominantly in Hong Kong.

Around a decade ago there was a plan to launch a rebooted shipping register in Macau, although nothing materialised from the endeavour in the end.

Since 2007 Beijing has extended a

tax-waiver scheme to get foreign-flagged ships back to flying the five-star flag, an incentive that has met little response.

Similarly in March 2012 the deepwater port of Yangshan off Shanghai offered foreign-flagged ships a VAT waiver if vessels switched their registration to Yangshan — the take up for this offering has been next to zero.

“China has been looking to try and get more ships registered at home for a long time, but has been reluctant to make the terms of registration attractive. It is arcane, too strict and costly. The Tianjin move might grow into something that could genuinely be a second flag, but more incentives may well need to be worked into the deal,” comments an international lawyer in Shanghai.

Another lawyer in the same city comments: “With the Shanghai free trade zone coming onstream the Tianjin side must be feeling some pressure to perform although that begs the question of exactly what the Shanghai FTZ will offer to owners.”

Initial take up of the Tianjin scheme is likely to come from feeder vessels although big state-owned firms are being weighed upon to sign up too. For instance, Cosco Bulk, the amalgamated dry bulk subsidiary of Cosco Group, is headquartered in Tianjin.

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Hong Kong closes in on another milestone The Special Administrative Region cannot rest on its laurels despite phenomenal growth As we went to print the Hong Kong Shipping Registry stood on the verge of yet another milestone. At the end of September there were 2,304 ships on the registry, totalling 84.8m gross tons (gt), very close to the 85m mark. The flag has grown by 8% in the previous 12 months cementing its place as the world’s fourth largest.

The register is arguably Hong Kong’s greatest maritime success since reunification with China, 16 years ago, boosted in no small part by hundreds of mainland vessels opting to fly the bauhinia flag.

Mainland owners now account for more than 70% of the register.

Among the flag’s most popular perks is the annual tonnage charge reduction scheme, running for the last seven

years. Any Hong Kong registered ship without a port state control detention record within a two-year period can enjoy a 50% discount on the coming year’s tonnage charge. Hong Kong registered ships also enjoy preferential port dues in Chinese ports.

A report by the City University of Hong Kong out this March on the territory’s position as an international maritime centre was glowing in its praise of the flag.

“Hong Kong’s ship registration services are famous for being cost efficient, timesaving and of high quality,” the report noted.

However, the report urged the local government to conclude more double taxation agreements (DTAs) to remain competitive.

“Many shipowners or operators have

transferred their ship vessels to Singapore recently for its broader range of comprehensive DTA partnerships than Hong Kong. This has resulted in a great threat to Hong Kong, as it needs to consolidate its success in the ship registration sector,” the report suggested.

Top five flags (m gt) 1 2 3 4 5

Panama 巴拿马

Liberia 利比里亚

Marshall Islands 马绍尔群岛

Hong Kong 香港

Singapore 新加坡 0

230.1

15.2 129.7

88.3

81.4

64.9

50

Our readers include:

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Getting your message across in a language your clients can understand

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100

150

Source: Clarksons, July 2013

200

250

■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Terminal velocity To meet China’s ambitious energy mix, LNG facilities are being built up and down the coastline

C

hina is about the hottest place on the planet at the moment for growth in liquefied natural gas demand. The nation’s latest fiveyear plan calls for gas to jump from around 4% of China’s energy mix in 2010 to 8% in 2015, and 10% by 2020. With domestic gas production struggling to keep up, imports will need to nearly quadruple from 2012 to around 80bn cu m by 2015.

The International Energy Agency projects that China’s natural gas demand could top 200bn cu m by 2030. To put that in perspective, in 2012, China imported a record volume of 21bn cu m of LNG. The nation became a net gas importer in 2007.

Currently, China has six LNG terminal projects under operation, after the first one started in 2006. All are controlled by state energy firms CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec.

At the moment there are eight LNG import terminals under construction in

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the country and several others are in the planning stage.

China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), China’s leading energy firm, announced in September plans to add a further five LNG receiving terminals by 2015.

In addition, the company will launch a floating storage regasification unit in Tianjin and a conventional terminal in Zhuhai by the end of this year.

The Tianjin floating terminal, China’s first, will include a floating, storage and regasification unit, an accompanying berth and two 30,000 cu m storage tanks. It will have an LNG receiving capacity of 3bn cu m per year.

LNG terminal projects, which are currently monopolised by the three stateowned Chinese oil industry giants, are finally being opened up to private firms.

Royal Dutch Shell has signed a letter of intent with a private Chinese firm, Guanghui Energy, to build an LNG terminal in Qidong in Jiangsu province.

Where China sources its seaborne gas imports is changing rapidly too. In 2008, 80% of China’s LNG imports were sourced from Australia. But by 2012, Qatar had overtaken Australia as China’s largest supplier, accounting for 34% of LNG imports, while Indonesia and Malaysia accounted for another 29%.

LNG terminal projects, which are currently monopolised by the three state-owned Chinese oil industry giants, are finally being opened up to private firms

LNG ■ ■ ■

Kawasaki eyes LNG in China

Yangtze leads the way in LNG bunkering Developments are now happening fast as China looks to cleaner fuels

T

his August, the first private LNG bunkering station in China was approved and will be built in Zhoushan by ENN Energy Holdings, a clean energy supplier headquartered in Hebei.

The first phase of the project is expected to have a receiving capacity of 3m tons upon completion in March 2016. Total investment on the project is RMB4.75bn.

The Zhoushan government expects the project will promote Zhoushan port as the LNG centre of northeast Asia.

ENN Energy currently has invested in and been operating more than 100 gas facilities in 15 provinces in China.

Recently it has also signed a long term LNG purchase agreement with a Canadian energy company to supply 2m tons of LNG annually.

In the same month Shenzhen-listed natural gas energy distributor and investor, Jinhong Energy, signed a strategy cooperation agreement for the development of marine LNG stations. The total project investment is around RMB600m.

Currently, the marine LNG sector is basically a blank field, with the important exception of the Yangtze river. Beijing is keen to foster a sea change in bunker choices to clean up the environment.

President Xi Jinping has personally backed plans to clean up the river. He paid a surprise visit to Wuhan port in July, urging those working on the river to make it into a “golden waterway”.

This summer, Chongqing Fujiang Energy Technology Company (Fujiang Energy), a subsidiary of Fortune Oil, started operating the first LNG filling station on the Yangtze river. Fujiang is backed by heavyweights including

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) plans to build LNG carriers at its joint venture shipyards in China by 2018.

KHI will put more investment into its joint venture shipyard with Cosco, Nantong Cosco KHI Ship Engineering (NACKS), to give the yard annual capacity for two LNG carriers by 2018 and it is also considering building LNG carriers at Dalian Cosco KHI Ship Engineering (DACKS) if orders increase.

KHI expects to lower costs by 30% by building the vessels in China. Traditionally, KHI has built Moss-type gas carriers (pictured) while China to date has focused on the more popular membrane-type.

Chinese in for GTT?

CLEAN UP Xi Jinping on a trip to Wuhan port this July called for the Yangtze to become a golden waterway China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Sinotrans&CSC Group.

Luo Chihua, general manager of Fujiang, says the company has commenced planning for another four to five LNG refuelling stations, near Wuhan, Nanjing and Shanghai. The first LNG filling station has a storage volume of 2,000 cu m and is capable of filling 20 vessels a day.

Fujiang proposes to convert vessels without cost to large shipping companies, as part of a transition period to the new fuel, sharing financial benefits from reduced operating costs to partially offset its investment.

Fujiang is set to have competition with PetroChina planning to invest RMB20bn to develop 20 LNG filling terminals along the river.

News this June that French energy giant Total and private equity firm Hellman & Friedman are looking to sell their 30% stakes in leading LNG membrane system Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) could see a bidding war from Asia with the Chinese facing off the Koreans. While the news has since died down, sources in France suggest both parties are still open to offers.

GTT has around 70% of the market share for LNG ships, something that has seen Korean yards pay more than $1bn in royalties to the French firm over the years.

According to a SinoShip LNG White Paper last year China will need up to 60 new liquefied natural gas carriers worth in the region of $12bn by 2020. Thus far, Chinese-built LNG ships have all been with the GTT containment systems.

CSSC, the state-run group that controls yards from Shanghai to Guangzhou, would likely lead the bidding on the Chinese side.

GTT’s other shareholder, GDF Suez from France, with a 40% stake, has no intention of selling its holding.

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■ ■ ■ HUBS: SHANGHAI

Information sourcing Engen Tham identifies the best outlets in Shanghai to access data Trying to find reliable sources of shipping information in a Chinese city can be likened to deciphering the Rosetta stone. But Shanghai, with its relatively more established shipping community, is host to a growing number of reputable information providers.

New entrants include Panjiva, a Shanghai-based subscriber-only online B2B site for suppliers and buyers. The site consolidates 30 data sources including customs data from seven countries, certification data and contact information.

So, for example, subscribers have access to very detailed US shipping import information, such as the number of shipments of clothing by weight purchased by a US company from any Chinese supplier, and also access to macro figures such as the total cargo weight of children’s toys purchased by the US from China.

Crucially, the site offers comprehensive Chinese trade data. “You can find Chinese trade data and other trade data sources piecemeal with 32

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other providers … but because you’re finding one part of one source here and another there, none of them are integrated, which means prior to Panjiva information was not discoverable on a single site,” says Bob Gates, founder of Panjiva.

Although there are many local and international shipbrokers in the city providing shipping information, Drewry’s unique selling point is its independence in a market that is renowned for its partisan skew.

“Being an independent consul-

Another way to gather information and feel the pulse of the shipping market in Shanghai is to attend the Shanghai Shipping Club drinks Another new entry is Drewry. Although well established internationally, the leading shipping consultant only set foot in China with a Shanghai office last year. The company, set up in the UK in 1970, provides shipping research and consultancy work, building on its compendium of existing data and market contacts. Compared to other information brokers in the market, Drewry is able to cover a broader spectrum of topics, claims Tina Liu, leader of the Shanghai team.

tancy house, we have no incentive to provide anything other than an unbiased opinion in the market,” says Liu. London-based international maritime market information provider, Baltic Exchange, has also set up an office in Shanghai this September. The new office will enhance the connection between China shipping and the world, and provide an easier way for Chinese shipping industry players to enter into the global market, says Jeremy Penn, ceo of Baltic Exchange.

If seeking due diligence

information on a Shanghai shipping company, it may be worth hiring a private investigation firm. Big firms, Kroll, Control Risks and FTI are all represented in the city and can provide detailed information on directors, debt, shareholders, and previous litigation on most Chinese companies.

Using smaller independent outfits could save costs, but may involve higher risks as they adopt a more laissez faire attitude to information acquisition, according to sources in the industry who did not wish to be identified given the sensitive nature of the topic.

Keeping an eye on the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) is a good way of taking stock of the municipal authority’s latest industry movements.

The exchange, founded by the Ministry of Transport and Shanghai’s municipal government in 1996, is often the source of local policy changes in Chinese newspaper reporting.

The SSE also has a shipping information exchange, which is home to three indices: the China (Export) Containerized Freight Index, the China Coastal Bulk Freight Index and the Shanghai (Export) Containerized Freight Index.

Another way to gather information and feel the pulse of the shipping market in Shanghai is to attend the Shanghai Shipping Club drinks, held on the last Wednesday of every month. The event, which originally started as a private gettogether in 2011, has expanded into an industry social.

SinoShip has attended a number of the drinks nights and they have always been friendly and an easy way to rub shoulders with the local maritime community. All sectors of the shipping industry are represented, from chartering service providers to academics, although on the nights we attended there did appear to be a significant number of logistics firms present.

HUBS: TAIPEI ■ ■ ■

Spending to stay relevant Incentives are on offer as Taiwan bids to lure transhipment, reports new Taipei correspondent David Green Tracking the source and destination of transshipment cargos is notoriously difficult, but a number of indicators suggest Taiwan is already embroiled in a scrap to retain its relevance as a major regional transhipment hub.

Chief among the challengers is Busan port, which has emerged as a major threat in the competition to attract carriers traversing the main shipping line from Japan to Singapore via Hong Kong.

In 2012, Busan’s transhipment throughput expanded 10.5%, even as South Korea’s import and export trade grew at just 1.1%. Port authorities have also spoken of their target to increase transhipment volumes between Japan, the US and Russia.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong itself is responding to low-cost competition for Chinese export cargoes from Shenzhen’s rapidly developing Yantian Port by seeking to boost its share of international transhipment business.

The Taiwanese government recognises these challenges and in August approved a Taiwan International Ports Corp (TIPC) plan to spend $2.2bn on expanding the island’s four leading international ports over the next five years. Amongst other things, the plan aims to attract transhipment business from second-tier mainland Chinese cities to Kaohsiung Port.

“Although the plan has a strong focus on meeting up with the trend of mega container vessels to increase transhipment business, it also aims to facilitate the development of port free trade zones and booming cross-strait express cargopassenger services,” says a TIPC spokesman.

However, Taiwan faces significant difficulties in ensuring that APM Terminals’ 2010 decision to pull out of Kaohsiung was

not an indication of the way the wind is blowing.

For the time being, Kaohsiung, which handles the vast majority of Taiwan’s annual container throughout of about 14m teu, has performed relatively well, despite the slowdown in China’s economic and trade growth.

“Kaohsiung has seen steady growth in throughput volumes of about 5% each year, but loaded transhipment cargo volume between Kaohsiung and China decreased last year due to China’s slow economy,” says Yvonne Chen, a senior spokesperson with TIPC. However, transhipment volumes in the 12 months to the end of June were up 9.09%, even as import and export traffic declined.

These numbers in part reflect the impact of an incentive scheme in operation across Taiwan’s four major international ports in the year to end-August designed to spur transhipment business.

The schemes offered carriers staggered incentives of up to NT$30m based on how much more transhipment business

they routed through Taiwan compared with the previous year, plus an additional pot of NT$50m for carriers to share according to their relative performance.

Port authorities confirmed that if results prove encouraging, similar schemes, as well as others specifically tailored for individual carrier groups, would be offered in future. Kaohsiung is also currently offering subsidies for berth and towage fees for small and medium-vessels while berth shifting.

Such incentives are essential because Taiwan has so far remained relatively insulated from direct competition from Chinese ports, as international carriers are barred from conducting transhipment operations there. This is unlikely to remain the case in the long term, and all the indications are that China’s ports will be significant transhipment destinations once they are given free rein.

While a raft of mainland ports are already able to handle 18,000 teu vessels, Kaohsiung’s redevelopment

program includes plans to add 19 deepwater berths, including five that can handle 18,000 teu class ships, but these will not be ready for a few years yet.

There is also an elephant in the room, namely the CrossStrait Sea Transport Agreement.

Taiwan is severely hampered by the current terms of the deal, according to National Taiwan Ocean University shipping management expert Chiu Rong-Her. “Foreign carriers are not allowed to carry transhipped cargoes originated from China in Taiwan’s ports, and the agreement’s ruling on ‘equal participation and orderly competition’ limits the cargo volume and carrying capacity,” he says. The pact, amongst a host of other limiting factors, also forbids the flag of convenience ships operated by many Taiwanese carriers from engaging in cross-strait trade.

“It is the major factor limiting Taiwan’s ability to attract transhipment business. We can only negotiate with them, and both sides meet frequently to discuss cross-strait shipping issues,” Chiu concludes.

BOXED IN Kaohsiung is fighting Busan and Hong Kong for transhipment cargoes

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HUBS: HONG KONG ■ ■ ■

HAZY OUTLOOK Hong Kong needs to look beyond its port for its maritime future

How to get back on the maritime map Sam Chambers assesses what the territory needs to do to remain a vital international maritime centre The shipping community in Hong Kong must have sore necks from all the looking back over their shoulders they’ve had to in the past decade. The Special Administrative Region’s preeminence in Asian shipping has faded undoubtedly, first with the rise of Singapore and latterly Shanghai and neighbouring Shenzhen. Where does it stand today?

This September saw the inaugural London International Shipping Week in which much discussion centred around which city — London or Singapore — was the world’s most important international maritime centre (IMC); Hong Kong did not get a mention.

Gone are the days when Hong Kong was the top boxport in the world; it will slip to fourth in the rankings this year, living off the vagaries of transhipment, something John Meredith, head of Hutchinson Port Holdings, dismissed a decade ago as being about as much use to a local economy as an airport transit lounge.

Talent has shifted elsewhere too, to the point where there are very real concerns among shipowners about staffing.

Our sister title Maritime CEO hosted a high level lunch at the Mandarin Oriental at the end of September in which head honchos from Wah Kwong, Tai Chong Cheang, Valles Steamship, Oak Maritime and Pacific Basin all attended. A

1,500 ships managed out of Hong Kong, the SAR is one of the very top places for that sector. The shipping register is also an unqualified success, the largest national flag anywhere, and fourth largest in the world.

The legal set up remains hugely important although its position as an arbitration centre could be strengthened by setting up an Admiralty court. On finance,

Transhipment is about as much use to a local economy as an airport transit lounge common worry was in getting the right people for shipping jobs, with Singapore paying wages far beyond the median offered in Hong Kong. Similarly, attracting the next generation of Hong Kongers to pursue a career in shipping is proving problematic.

Where then do the city’s strengths lie? First, is in shipmanagement. With more than

the former British colony remains one of the vital stops on the world map for owners seeking capital. There is also the arrival of the brand new cruise terminal, which has the potential to usher in vast amount of tourist dollars if handled correctly.

Arguably, however, Hong Kong’s strongest card is in dry bulk. While Singapore has

always had an edge in tankers, Hong Kong still fixes more capesizes than almost anywhere else.

Taking a leaf out of Singapore’s books, the local government should try to get big Chinese industrial giants such as Baosteel to handle their trading in Hong Kong, as well as trying to get international trading giants such as BHP Biliton and Rio Tinto to relocate from Singapore to Hong Kong in order to bolster the city’s maritime credentials.

The dry bulk downturn has strengthened Hong Kong’s hand. The city’s conservative owners did not shirk their duties during the doldrums while others folded.

Consequently, chartering managers are increasingly touching down at Chep Lap Kok airport to talk long term deals with the territory’s stalwart owners.

There is no doubt that the administration under CY Leung has placed shipping higher up the in-tray of priorities than any other leader since reunification 16 years ago.

There is still plenty more to do. In March this year the City University of Hong Kong and the One Country Two Systems Research Institute produced a paper on what the SAR must do to remain a competitive IMC. “To compete, the SAR government needs to focus its efforts beyond brick-and-mortar port development and portrelated logistics business but on maritime services, especially ship finance, ship insurance and cruise tourism,” the study suggested.

Among key suggestions it was noted that Hong Kong has been a laggard in signing the avoidance of double taxation agreements (DTAs), with only about half of its top 20 trade partners covered by one. These pale in comparison with the 50 DTAs that Singapore and mainland China each have secured.

The time for maritime transformation is now. Hong Kong must look ahead, not around.

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■ ■ ■ BOOKS

Globalisation’s dark by-products Paul French combs through a swathe of books on the environment, with China choking its way to the top The environment is now officially a subject that will not go away. Consequently books keep on appearing covering the issue. Seemingly China is one environmental problem that keeps looming its head.

A useful roundup of case studies of recent environmental problems in China comes from the team behind the bilingual website Chinadialogue.net. The site’s editor, Sam Geall, and founder, Isabel Hilton (herself a noted and longstanding Sinologist) have pulled together a series of chapters detailing problems concerned with air, water and industrial pollution in China and the Environment: The Green Revolution (Zed Books, 2013).

Perhaps most in-depth, and also a case concerning a major port city, is New York Times’ journalist Jonathan Ansfield’s study of the Xiamen PX case.

Ansfield’s account of this landmark not-in-my-backyard struggle shows how areas of growing industrial importance and major ports attract both industry and people. The mix of the two is not always easy.

Former foreign correspondent in China Craig Simons has chosen to look at how China’s seemingly endless hunger for resources is causing environmental problems in other countries. The Devouring Dragon: How China’s Rise Threatens Our Natural World (St Martin’s Press, 2013) notes that the PRC is the world’s top importer of tropical timber, mostly harvested illegally in Indonesia while, in Brazil, farmers clear large swathes of the Amazon rainforest to meet Chinese demand for soybean oil and beef. In the US, toxic levels of mercury originating from Chinese power plants have 36

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STACKS OF Karma The world’s factory is causing worldwide pollution

In the US, toxic levels of mercury originating from Chinese power plants have polluted a third of American lakes and nearly a quarter of its rivers polluted a third of American lakes and nearly a quarter of its rivers. With the Obama administration placing China among its top three foreign policy priorities, Simons argues for ways in which the US and China can

forge a new era of cooperation, support emerging environmental groups within China, and begin to ensure a sustainable future for the planet.

Tapan Sarker, Moazzem Hossain and Malcolm

Macintosh’s The Asian Century, Sustainable Growth and Climate Change (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2013) looks across the Asian continent and contrasts the strong growth and improvement in people’s living standards with the environmental degradation that has occurred. While lives are generally better, they argue, right now policy makers are faced with a choice — carry on growing at the current rate and with the current deleterious affect on the environment or reap the consequences in terms of public health, sanitation and loss of natural resources.

The authors’ remit is large — among those factors that affect environment are not just industry but also demographic conditions, tax reform and the responsible use of natural resources in the years to come.

Finally let’s not forget that transport plays its part in the environmental debate. An interesting little e-book has been published by a group of World Bank economists examining just how Pakistan’s 2011 Framework for Economic Growth affected the environment in relation to the development of the transportation sector. Greening Growth in Pakistan through Transport Sector Reforms: A Strategic Environmental, Poverty, and Social Assessment (World Bank, 2013) looks at transport’s impacts on air quality, noise pollution, road safety, hazardous-materials transport, climate change and urban sprawl. Though limited to Pakistan, it is an interesting study with a lot to be learnt by those forming transport and environment policy in a host of emerging markets.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Urgent changes needed Andrew Craig-Bennett takes aim at 1972’s Collision Regulations in the wake of August’s tragic ferry disaster in the Philippines If you were at sea on the July 15, 1977, when the 1972 Colregs came into force, replacing the 1960 version, you are at least in your fifties. That means that practically every deck officer now at sea, and almost every lecturer and professor teaching the collision rules and collision avoidance to those now going to sea, has relied on the 1972 Colregs for the whole of his or her career.

No earlier version of the Colregs lasted anything like so long.

The IMO are busy people.

We know that. But are they right to assume, as it seems they do, that the 1972 Colregs represent perfection?

To point out the blitheringly obvious, in 1972, traffic separation schemes were the big new thing; and the 1972 Colregs were brought on by a need to make the very first traffic separation scheme (TSS), in the Dover Strait, mandatory, in a hurry, after the events of 1971.

On January 11 that year, the tanker Texaco Caribbean, in ballast, in the pre-inert gas system era, collided with the Peruvian ‘tweendecker Paracas, blew up, killing eight of her crew, and sank. The next day the German Brandenburg struck the wreckage and sank, killing 22 of her crew and on February 27 the Greek Niki struck the well-marked wreck and sank with all hands. This happened in northwest Europe, and was embarrassing.

“That could not happen now”…except that on the December 14, 2002, despite the 1972 Colregs, it did — the Tricolor was rammed and sunk, in the Dover Strait, by the Kariba; the following day the Dutch Nicola struck the wreck and on January 1, 2003 the Turkish Vicky did so too.

The full mission bridge simulator has given us a very powerful tool, unknown 31 years ago, for evaluating collisions.

The IMO has done nothing History repeated itself as expensive farce — nobody was killed.

The lack of deaths, that time, owed nothing to the Colregs and everything to improvements in ship design and in safety equipment in the intervening 30 years.

The Colregs say nothing about ARPA, nothing about AIS, nothing about VHF, nothing about VTS. Today, most ships become aware of each other on radar, not visually. Most ships communicate on VHF using AIS data where risk of collision exists.

The 1972 Colregs perpetuate a colossal mistake — one made in 1863, when the British and French governments replaced the 1842 Trinity House Rules.

For no reason that anyone can explain, the two governments extended the concept of the

‘stand on’ and the ‘give way’ vessel in a crossing situation from sailing ships, which need such a rule when close hauled on opposite tacks, to power driven vessels, which never need such a rule, and had not had it in 1842.

This means that the rules that apply change when ships come in sight of each other. At that point, each has to determine whether she is overtaking, meeting or crossing, and in two of the three cases one ship has to keep her course and speed and wait for the other to manoeuvre… only if the give way vessel does not alter may the stand on vessel do so. This is known in the trade as the Rule 17 Nightmare. It is an often-fatal bureaucratic absurdity.

The full mission bridge

simulator has given us a very powerful tool, unknown in 1972, for evaluating collision scenarios and deriving a better set of Collision Regulations, which take account of today’s technology. The IMO has done nothing.

On the evening of Friday, August 16, the ferry St Thomas of Aquinas, with 870 people on board, inbound into Cebu in the middle of the Philippines, in or joining the Cebu TSS, collided with the outbound Sulpicio Express 7 and sank.

Early reports suggest a classic 1972 Colregs issue, with the inbound ferry, unable to alter to starboard because of a shoal, and assuming that the other vessel was taking no action, altering to port just as the outbound cargo ship seems to have altered to starboard.

It seems that 120 people are dead.

The correct response to this is not: “Who cares — it was just another third world ferry…”

The correct response is for the IMO to be shamed into showing some responsibility.

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■ ■ ■ OPINION

FILLING UP Watering holes such as HK’s Captain’s Bar are invaded by European shipping execs at this time of year

Autumn rituals The end of summer may or may not be the start of an improving market, but there are a few things which autumn brings every year come what may, writes Bei Hong over a pint or two Whether you spent the summer cruising the Mediterranean on a mega yacht, or swelling the coffers of your local electricity company having to crank up the air conditioning in a sweltering office, September/October is the great equalizer as we all get our heads down for that last lunge towards the finishing line of the year in December.

Forget about post-holiday blues, this is time to roll up the sleeves and turn what might have been a pretty rubbish year into something decent or turn a good year into something great. Expect to see a flurry of IPOs and fund raising exercises 38

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Expect to see a flurry of IPOs and fund raising exercises as the investment bankers smoothly convince shipowners that ‘the window is certainly open again’. Having realised that those cheap newbuilding orders placed before they disappeared on their summer vacations may not be matched by a ready availability of bank finance, the argument to tap into ‘Other People’s Money’, despite the fees, just might prove compelling.

Just as the spring sees new life in the natural world, the autumn sees new life in the

world of business travel. What better way to combat the grim onset of a North European winter than a spot of Asian business travel? A crisp autumnal day in Tokyo or a humidity free Hong Kong offer a siren call to beleaguered shipping executives wanting to trade the daily commute for an opportunity to ‘check up on what’s happening out East’. The diaries of their prospective hosts in Asia’s maritime centres rapidly fill up and come mid-November, when the Europeans migrate

back in order to fit in the London pre-Christmas party season, waist lines and expense accounts have received brutal punishment.

However, it is deep in the bowels of the sale and purchase departments of shipbroking companies where the real autumnal pressure comes into play. Selling a ship which can give delivery before year end means that the commission can be billed before the close of this year’s books and hence counts for this year’s bonus pot.

‘Selling into the fourth quarter upturn’ is the wise advice given out and brokers groan when a ship is fixed on a long haul voyage which will mean she is out of position for potential buyers to inspect. But this is nothing compared to the angst caused when a ship due to be handed over just before Christmas gets delayed and the delivery happens just after the new year.

The commission gets shuffled into next year’s bonus pot, but it’s seen as ‘last year’s deal’ and quickly gets forgotten. That’s particularly bad news for brokers looking to make a move in shipbroking’s equivalent of football’s ‘transfer window’, which usually sees frantic transfer activity as soon as the bonuses are in the bank. They will never see the benefit of those ships which slipped into January.

So is the spin put on the ‘fourth quarter upturn’ really just spin to get the wheels turning before the year closes or can we really hope that there is some substance behind it?

History shows that the past few years have indeed seen an upturn in the dry cargo market at this time of year, and late August suggested it might even have come early. Then again, could Middle East tensions see a rocketing oil price and a suffocated recovery? Better pack the bags and head East on a business trip. That might delay a decision, even if it does cause your sale and purchase broker a bit of stress.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Building a shipping brand Wikborg Rein’s Graeme Sommerville-Ryan argues there’s more to PR than crisis communications Over 100,000 merchant vessels carry 90% of the world’s trade, yet the shipping sector rarely gets good press.

Actually, it rarely gets any press, unless something goes terribly wrong. The industry bemoans this negative coverage, but rarely does anything about it — collectively or as individual companies.

Since the global financial crisis struck there has been very little positive shipping news to talk about. Bad debts, overcapacity, high fuel costs, and casualties have dominated the trade and mainstream media headlines. However, if companies want to change the way they are perceived by the public, their peers, and the media, they need to treat their brands as assets.

Most businesses see innate value in their brands. Indeed, a successful brand can actually be worth more than the sum of its commercial parts.

Companies are bought out just for the value of their name. The strength of a brand is reflected in stronger share prices, the ability to attract the best people, easier access to finance, and greater success in bidding for work. Brands do have value, to the extent that they can now be insured.

A handful of companies in the shipping sector ‘get’ the concept and see the value in a strong brand. Maersk and DNV are two that stand out. It is worth, in particular, looking at how Maersk projects its company image through advertising campaigns and their commentary to the media. A friend once commented that Maersk

faced the same operational issues as any other shipping company (he used different language), but were treated differently. That is the power of a successful brand.

Maersk and DNV brand themselves as complete corporate entities and give the impression they have a brand strategy.

They have a vision of how they want the world to see their

If the shipping industry wants good press, a wider range of companies need to start building reputational capital First and foremost a brand is not just a logo. A brand is the story of a company, its promises to its stakeholders and clients, and a statement about the direction it wants to move in.

companies — as the best in the business.

When shipping companies talk about marketing it often goes along the lines of: ‘We do crisis management training

all the time’. It seems that, understandably, shipping companies’ attention is focused on preparing for the worstcase scenario. This is because when things go wrong, they go very wrong — and few other non-shipping companies are exposed to such risks.

As a result, marketing and brand development focus on trying not to be noticed. This makes it difficult, culturally, to stand up and promote a brand.

The downside of this approach is that the best operators are seen as being no different from the worst, and the financially sound companies are assumed to have the same issues as the struggling.

When a crisis does occur, the media assumes the worst — and who can blame them when there are no positives in the background story.

If the shipping industry wants good press, a wider range of companies need to start building reputational capital. In practical terms this will mean developing marketing, branding, and communications strategies; implementing them effectively; and becoming proactive in terms of dealing with the trade and mainstream media. The ‘crisis management’ aspects of marketing need to be respected — but also built on.

Many lessons can be taken from other industries to promote the shipping sector as a vital cog in international trade.

For those companies who stay the course and strive to be seen as leaders in the sector, success will come faster now than at almost any other time.

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