SinoShip Winter Issue 2014

Chinese yards target cruise sector Ports special report Winter 2014

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Rise of the Google Ship?

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Insurance focus

Falling oil prices dash offshore ambitions

From the Yangtze to the NASDAQ

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CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars 3 Editor’s Comment 5 Economy 7 Lines

We are so old fashioned we don't even realise just how far behind we are with the latest technology — Dr Martin Stopford, president, Clarkson Research Services

9 Yards 11 Offshore

The drilling sector is already softening amid overcapacity

12 Finance 13 Commodities 14 Logistics

■ ■ ■ Profiles 15 CC Liu 17 Lin Cailong 18 Ma Zhilin 19 Sun Yuqing

3

11

— Mike Meade, founder, M3 Marine

A policy, a natural disaster or a new innovation may change the whole world.

— CC Liu, founder, Parakou Group

■ ■ ■ Features

15

20 Insurance 23 Ports

■ ■ ■ Hubs 26 Shanghai 27 Taipei 29 Hong Kong

17

As a company in both the shipping and shipbuilding industries, we have been facing challenges — Lin Cailong, president, Fujian Crown Sea Shipping

30 Books

Without a proper safety culture, you cannot talk about development

■ ■ ■ Opinions

— Ma Zhilin, president, New Jinhang Shipping

■ ■ ■ Reviews

31 Bei Hong 33 Andrew Craig- Bennett

19

18

Having a solid, secured line up of talent in advance can help a company overcome difficulties fast — Sun Yuqing, president, Dalian Maritime University Sinoship WINTER 2014

1

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UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@asiashippingmedia.com CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com Online Editor Holly Birkett holly@asiashippingmedia.com BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Colin Shek HONG KONG Charlotte So DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI David Green CONTRIBUTORS Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh, Andrew Craig-Bennett PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao All editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com SALES DIRECTOR Helen Ong helen@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details.

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Googleable?

A few weeks ago I had the pleasure of moderating a genuinely fascinating dry bulkfocused breakfast sponsored by DVB Bank and Rightship at the Hong Kong Foreign Correspondents’ Club. Clarkson’s Dr Martin Stopford really got debate going when he suggested that shipping needed to get its act together when it comes to harnessing technology and perhaps follow the robotic lead of the Google Car, ratcheting up the argument for unmanned vessels.

“We are so old fashioned we don't even realise just how far behind we are with the latest technology,” Stopford said.

Stopford said it was time for a reappraisal, arguing that the $180bn of investments last year in new ships needs to be matched by a much smaller but significant investment in increasing the industry’s technical capability to use this great new revolution we have, information technology.”

Commenting on Stopford’s thoughts, Simon Doughty, ceo of Wallem Group, said any serious push for automation will come down to supply and demand and perhaps a unified shipping industry to tackle the innovation.

Richard Sadler, ceo of British classification society, Lloyd's Register, bemoaned shipping’s conservative nature, which has, he agreed with Stopford, left it way behind other modes of transport.

“If we can use autonomy with all the risks and uncertainties of taking a car around a town, then surely we can use the technology to drive ships,” Sadler said, adding, “Not necessarily to berth them, but certainly from outer buoy to outer buoy across the ocean.”

Quite so, concurred Martin Kits van Heyningen, ceo and chairman of communications firm KVH Industries. “Compared to piloting an airliner or navigating an autonomous vehicle on crowded city streets, navigating a vessel across oceans or through busy channels is trivial,” he said, claiming the technology to do this exists today.

“Autonomous ships would dramatically reduce the number of accidents and save

fuel,” he told me.

One man well placed to comment on the issues raised by Stopford is Mika Vehviläinen, who prior to taking up his current role as president of Finnish equipment supplier, Cargotec, was the head of Finnair. He admitted shipping is well behind other modes of transport such as airlines and automotives.

Nevertheless, he does see less and less need for seafarers onboard ships going forward.

“The role of the crew in ships will be more focused on maintenance and monitoring of the operations,” he said.

The debate about unmanned vessels rages on.

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com

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Economy ■ ■ ■

Decelerating to sustainability Paul French on a new calm in the economy despite media efforts to whip up fear China’s third quarter macroeconomic data appears to indicate that the PRC economy is gradually decelerating. However, this should, most analysts believe, lead to a healthier, less hectic and more sustainable growth rate.

Long-term China watchers had long known this deceleration was coming. The PRC’s workforce has been shrinking for some time due to demographic factors while much of the job of the last decades of frantic urbanisation has now been completed – major infrastructure and large-scale housing projects have already been built (overbuilt some would say pointing to the infamous ‘ghost cities’ and rural bridges-tonowhere of the stimulus years).

Sensibly China’s leaders have resisted the urge to artificially boost growth and moved away from the growth at all costs thinking of recent years.

GDP growth is now expected to be just above 7% this year, and will probably be slightly slower next year.

Other indicators also reflect a new calm in the economy – despite fears of a major collapse the much media hyped Chinese property market looks likely to stabilise in the coming quarters, and some of those ghost cities may even start to fill up. Additionally, steady growth in incomes and retail sales mean China remains the world’s best consumption story with higher wages being

China’s GDP Growth – Levelling Off Year % growth 2007 14.1 2008 10.0 2009 9.8 2010 10.4 2011 9.9 2012 8.6 2013 8.3 2014 7.3* 2015 7.0* Source: IMF *=estimates

poured into domestic spending rather than savings and so circulating.

For those in shipping and

logistics though the picture is a little more mixed. Net exports – i.e. the value of exports minus the value of imports – accounted for approximately 10% of GDP growth, up from small negative contributions during the past two years. But this was probably due in large part to lower import prices rather than a revival of exports.

So if you’re shipping into China then it’s good news, but if you’re shipping out then full loads may still be more elusive than in the workshop-of-theworld past.

Though the much talked about property bubble of China hasn’t burst there was a small decline in house prices.

However, the government is encouraging current home

Steady growth in incomes and retail sales mean China remains the world’s best consumption story

owners to upgrade to better properties and has actively encouraged this by lowering the cash down payment requirement to 30% from 60% for those who pay off their first mortgage and buy a second house. This seems popular with the month-on-month growth rate of new home sales, rebounding to 41% in September, compared to an average of 32% for that month during the previous seven years. The long-term plan is that poorer new urbanites will move into the homes vacated by those upgrading thus allowing many more to finally get on the property ladder.

This should then be the future for 2015. The government has sent clear signals that there will be no ne stimulus packages or economic boosting measures as in the past – clear and steady as she goes then.

Sinoship WINTER 2014

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LINES ■ ■ ■

Dry bulk’s greatest dispute seems over with Cosco and China Merchants both cosying up to Brazilian miner Vale this September. Four existing 400,000 dwt very large ore carriers (VLOCs) owned and operated by Vale were transferred to Cosco and chartered by Vale on a long term basis for 25 years. In addition, Vale and Cosco shall enter into a similar long term contract of affreightment which will be serviced by 10 VLOCs of similar deadweight to be built by Cosco. Similarly China Merchants Energy Shipping will order 10 VLOCs to fulfill a 25-year contract of affreightment signed with Vale.

China Merchants Energy Shipping’s (CMES) oil tanker joint venture with Sinotrans&CSC completed registration in Hong Kong. The new company will be called China VLCC Company and is set to become the largest VLCC player in the world. CMES has a 51% stake in the tanker firm, with Sinotrans&CSC holding the remainder.

China Shipping Group and China Merchants Group inked a strategic cooperation agreement this November for the two companies to work together on terminal development, finance, and shipping services, the latest in Beijing’s forced betrothal between Chinese shipping majors.

China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) held a naming ceremony on November 18 for what is the world’s largest containership. The CSCL Globe, clocking in at 19,100 teu, was built at Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries.

In November, China Shipping Group launched its financial leasing arm, China Shipping Group Leasing Company, the only shipping firm allowed to create such a financial entity by the Ministry of Commerce and State Administration of Taxation.

China Shipping Development

Trucking consolidation Exclusive repair data SPRING 2013

securities company in China to enter the shipowning sector.

The vessel will be chartered to Jiangsu Ligang Power Group under a bareboat contract, to transport bulk cargo in the domestic market.

Fast growing shipowner Shandong Shipping bought out UK heavylift contractor Twin Marine Heavylift in November bringing its varied fleet to around 5.5m dwt.

Hong Kong’s Parakou signed a deal to merge its Singaporebased tanker division with NASDAQ-listed Cambridge Capital Acquisition Corporation, which will take the shipping company public under a new name, Parakou Tankers.

Kaohsiung-based bulk shipping firm Franbo Lines launched its IPO in October and immediately set about a dramatic fleet expansion, ordering a total of six handysizes by the time SinoShip went to print.

In October, CITIC Huanqiu Trading, the bulk commodity trading platform of CITIC Securities, signed an agreement with Taizhou Santai Shipyard for the sale of a 51,000 dwt bulker, which saw CITIC Securities becoming the first

Taiwan’s Wan Hai Lines set up a joint venture with Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG), the main port operator in China’s financial metropolis. The jv will mainly operate online shopping and related logistics services between mainland China and Taiwan.

China’s ongoing consolidation of shipping lines appears to be going province by province. In October, the Fujian Provincial Communication Transportation Group started work to establish Fujian Shipping Group. The group will integrate more than 40 shipping companies in Fuzhou, Xiamen, Hong Kong and Taipei with total assets of RMB5bn, including 45 vessels, becoming the largest shipping group in Fujian.

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Eye on jack-up rigs

saw Wuhan Steel become the second largest A shareholder of China Shipping Development in a share swap deal announced in October.

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Wah Kwong

Sabrina Chao takes the chair

Your chance to reach the right audience Project shippers focus on Africa Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism head speaks Hosco’s Gao Yangming: China’s scrapping champion E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

Cruise ambitions China has moved a step closer to building its first cruiseship Cruiseships are the Holy Grail for shipbuilders, something that have largely eluded Asian shipyards with the exception of Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries on/off flirting with the sector. Cruiseships cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build, require extremely diverse and competent subcontractors and suppliers and take years to perfect. To date they have been the meat and drink of Europe’s otherwise withering shipbuilding scene. Now, however, the Chinese are ready to make an impact.

State-run China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) has announced plans to develop China’s first self-built cruise ship together with the world leading cruise operator Carnival and the Italian shipyard Fincantieri.

Hu Wenming, president of CSSC, is confident his firm can get the job done.

CSSC’s own ship design arm, CSSC Shanghai Merchant Ship Design & Research Institute (SDARI), is working to get plans together.

“As the major shipbuilding conglomerate in China, we should not be satisfied with building the traditional ships like bulk carriers, containerships, and tankers, the cruise market in China is huge and it is a wise step of the company to get into,” an official from

the R&D department of SDARI tells SinoShip, “We believe we have the ability to complete the development and construction of a luxury cruiseship, although it might take five or 10 years, maybe even longer.”

China is the fastest growing cruise market in the world and there is increasing demand for a China-built, China-themed ship.

Guo Dacheng, president of the China Association of National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) tells SinoShip, “We are very excited about building cruiseships in China. Currently CSSC is working on the various preparation works and I think we will enter this market in the very near future and it will be a

Australian mining tycoon Clive Palmer’s much hyped idea to build a replica of the Titanic has gone quiet

new breakthrough for China’s shipbuilding industry.”

Carnival ceo Arnold Donald commented on the Fincantieri/ CSSC tie up: "After working diligently to get a deep understanding of China's aggressive cruise ambitions, we're collaborating with two of the world's top shipbuilders in Fincantieri and CSSC to establish a framework for a world-class Chinese shipbuilding venture designed to help accelerate growth and demand for cruising in China in the years to come."

Carnival’s great rival Royal Caribbean has long been linked with helping another CSSC affiliate, Xiamen Shipbuilding, in building a cruiseship though these plans gone quiet this year as has Australian mining tycoon Clive Palmer’s much hyped idea to build a replica of the Titanic at CSC Jinling Shipyard.

In the past year, the Chinese Ministry of Transport has expressed its strong desire to transform China into a leading global cruise market, including investments in infrastructure and developing a strong domestic cruise presence to help boost growth in cruising as a key component of the expanding tourism industry in China.

The MOT projects China to be the second largest global cruise market after the US in the next several years with 4.5m passengers by 2020.

Meanwhile, the newborn Chinese cruise operator, Bohai Ferry, is likely to build a cruiseship at a shipyard, possibly in China, according to Zhan Li, general manager of Bohai Cruise (Hong Kong). The company acquired its first cruiseship, Costa Voyager, earlier this year.

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OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■

Reality dawns as oil price drops

Chinese yards are watching with horror as OPEC strikes against shale oil, writes Mike Meade from offshore brokers, M3 Marine Chinese yards' offshore ambitions may well take a hit from the dramatic fall in oil prices.

With OPEC – driven by Saudi Arabia – playing a very clever game with the US shale oil producers and deciding not to cut production we could see a likely floor level of $60-70 per barrel for Brent crude and $80 in the long term. The short-term weak oil prices should flush out high-cost oil production – the aforementioned US shale oil – and thus hopefully return the oil market to an even demandsupply keel.

Of immediate impact to the offshore marine sector is the high-end ultra deepwater drillship market where the capital spend will be at significant risk.

Infield Systems report breakeven costs – using Brent as a benchmark, for offshore oilfield developments range from $20 a barrel to $80. At the bottom of the cost spectrum, the breakeven costs for shallow-medium water depth projects are $20-30 in the Caspian Sea and $30-40 in Southeast Asia. In comparison, deepwater developments are considerably higher with ultra deepwater breakeven costs of

$40-50 for Brazil Pre-Salt, $5060 for US Gulf and $60-70 for West Africa. The most expensive developments are those in the Arctic region, which have a breakeven cost of $70-80 per barrel. These costs are in line with the cost of onshore US shale oil ( fracking), which is now under considerable threat.

The drilling sector is already softening amid overcapacity.

Before the most recent fall in oil prices, rig utilisation and day rates for deepwater rigs were already on a downtrend due to impending overcapacity from a large orderbook.

At the start of 2014, jackup, semi and drillship orderbooks were 26%, 25% and 77% of their respective fleets. IHS Cera Petrodata forecasts the global drilling jack-up rig fleet to increase from 543 units by the end of 2014 to 602 units by the end of 2015 with projected utilisation to fall from 83% to

50 – 250 Days late on average that Chinese yards deliver rigs

77%. As for the semi-sub market, the total fleet is expected to increase from 222 units by the end of 2014 to 231 units by the end of 2015 with utilisation falling from 78% to 73%. The drillship fleet is forecast to expand from 120 units by the end of 2014 to 139 by the end of 2015, with utilisation falling marginally from 82% to 81%.

Lower oil prices will continue to hold down rig utilisation even further, and this will dampen further orders to shipyards, something that is already apparent. After stellar rig orders in 2011-13, less rig orders were placed in 2014. So far, this year, we have seen total orders for 27 drilling rigs compared to 104 units in 2013.

China, as the dominant rig builder with a 47% market share of the global orderbook, will undoubtedly hurt from this price drop.

Separately, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is currently working on a ‘white list’ for China’s offshore platform builders in an effort to tighten the regulations of the sector.

MIIT has sent out a notice with draft regulations it has just

made to the relevant companies and asked them to send applications voluntarily.

Comparing with the white list for the shipbuilding industry, which was released in September, the white list for offshore platform builders has added technology innovation capability and project management capability as new conditions for evaluations.

MIIT said the new white list aims to better regulate and optimise the offshore platform sector, and also promote mergers in the sector.

The move is a good one as Chinese yards need to sharpen up in terms of getting projects done on time.

A recent report from CLSA, a stockbroker, concludes that China is losing much of its advantage on price. CLSA estimates that labour costs in its yards are rising by 10-15% a year, while productivity remains low. Moreover, over the past five years, rigs ordered from Keppel and SembCorp in Singapore were, on average, delivered ahead of schedule, whereas Chinese yards delivered 50-250 days late, says research firm IHC Cera Petrodata.

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■ ■ ■ FINANCE

Asia not on the IPO radar Ultimately valuation drives the location of shipping listings

The capital markets of Norway and New York have been aggressively providing equity and debt for shipping investments. Who can succeed in raising such finance? Can Asian bourses compete and play a leading role? These were the questions posed at Marine Money’s annual Singapore gathering in late September.

Andy Yeo from Pareto noted that a total of $13bn had been raised in the US in the six months through to September while ABN Amro’s Perry van Echtelt said that in all investment classes there are still lots of equity available.

“Last year private equity

was driven by the eco story,” van Echtelt said, adding that newbuild ordering has subsided this year and private equity will be looking for an exit via the capital markets or consolidation.

Jon Connor from HSBC observed that Asia has contributed to 7% of equity raised through to July this year.

“Debt capacity markets are very open in Asia,” he insisted, adding: “Name recognition is very key to raising capital.”

While the US and the UK are much larger in terms of deal sizes, OCBC’s Andy Teo said Hong Kong and Singapore are very active maritime wise.

Name recognition is very key to raising capital 12

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$1.5bn has been raised in the equity markets in Singapore in the last five years, he pointed out and $5bn in Hong Kong.

“Sentiment is getting rosier,” he insisted. Offshore, LNG, LPG and containers are the most popular with both investors and customers.

Harold Malone from Jefferies pointed out that while the US had indeed seen a tremendous amount of capital raised it had centred around a “narrow” amount of sectors, principally LNG and LPG which are in a different cyclical place to other shipping sectors.

On the markets in general, ABN Amro’s van Echtelt said they were moving sideways with a great deal of volatility.

“It will be more difficult to IPO a smaller shipping company,” he suggested. IPOs will

be driven by private equity who will look to consolidate to gain size prior to listing. New York will continue to be the number one destination for shipping share launches, he said, something all the panel agreed with, HSBC’s Connor stressing, “Size is absolutely paramount.”

OCBC’s Teo said IPOs would start to come to market next year and that private equity had not invested much in Asia to date with the notable exception of Korea’s financially troubled Hanjin Shipping.

Ultimately valuation will drive the location of IPOs, maintained Thomas Preben Hansen, the ceo of Rickmers Trust Management. He concluded Asian stock exchanges and banks needed to be more aggressive to ensure there are some IPOs from private equity.

Commodities ■ ■ ■

Refining overload Mark Downing on China’s diesel oversupply Rudolf Diesel originally invented the compressionignition engine to run on coal dust. But after nearly blowing himself up, he switched to something nuttier, peanut oil.

Well over a century later, the world’s largest energy consumer is importing more petroleum oil than ever before, despite its massive coal reserves — with the ubiquitous diesel engine guzzling over a third of its total oil consumption.

Diesel demand is a bellwether of industrial activity, powering much of the vehicles and generators typically used for construction and mining. While demand had doubled from 2002 to 2012, it has remained relatively flat at 3.5m barrels per day for the past two years. Demand may fall 0.4% this year, the first annual decline in more than a decade, according to the consultancy IHS Cera, and may remain flat for a few years with the continued slowdown in China’s infrastructure development. This may eventually pick up, according to some observers, literally driven in part by the growth in road freight tied to the development of China’s interior regions.

As a net importer of diesel just three years ago, China’s refineries are now producing far more diesel than can be domestically consumed. China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issues export quotas on oil products to refineries to ensure that domestic demand is met.

Most of these refineries are configured to produce 35-37% of their capacity as diesel, down from 45% a few years ago, according to Reuters.

But it is the demand growth for secondary fuels that forces diesel into oversupply: aviation growth has demand for jet fuel set to grow around 9% next year while strong passenger car sales will see gasoline demand growing at 8%, estimates oil consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

“Chinese refineries have been raising jet fuel output since last year as profit margins are better than for diesel,” Liang Dan, an analyst at the petroleum market intelligence agency ICIS-C1 Energy, told Bloomberg.

This aggressively priced surplus supplies neighbouring markets such as Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines and Hong Kong, and increasingly reaches as far as Africa. China reached a record net export of more than 2.93m tonnes in the first eight months of this year, and analysts at ICIS-C1 expect total exports to reach 4m tonnes by year-end.

Asia will account for nearly 80% of crude’s global demand growth this year, with China responsible for a third, forecasts the International Energy

Agency. In September China consumed the second largest amount of crude oil on record and imported the largest volume ever for that time of year, according to Bloomberg.

Further, the number of VLCCs bound for China reached a nine-month high in the middle of October. China’s refining capacity may rise 20% to 800m tonnes a year by 2020, from about 668m at the end of this year, according to a report released by China National Petroleum Corporation’s (CNPC) Economic and Technology Research Institute at the beginning of this year.

By 2020, diesel oversupply could reach 14m tonnes, suggests Dai Jiaquan, a director at CNPC.

20%

Growth in China’s refining capacity through to 2020, hitting 800m tonnes a year

However, over the past few years, China’s oil refining sector's modernisation and consolidation has partially reined in capacity. Dozens of smaller independent and often inefficient ‘teapot’ refineries have been shuttered. Plans for refinery construction and upgrades may be delayed or scrapped by stricter Beijing policies to curb air pollution.

A period of cheap oil may further bolster the battle against pollution by easing the costs of switching from such dirty fuels as diesel to relatively more expensive, yet cleaner, alternatives. Additionally, some observers are closely watching China’s private enterprise’s ability to innovate more fuel efficient engines or ones powered by cleaner fuels.

For the foreseeable future, in the face of sluggish infrastructure development, diesel-centric refineries will continue to produce excess diesel to meet the growing demand for other fuels. China and its neighbours will remain awash in cheap diesel.

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■ ■ ■ LOGISTICS

App slap Mobile application Ren Ren Express has many competitors on edge The exploding growth of the e-commerce industry has seen China surpass the US in terms of online retail volumes and become the largest online retail market in the world this year. Thousands of new express companies have entered the market trying to meet the increasing market demand.

According to statistics from China Express Association, the total number of express companies has almost doubled compared with just two years ago.

These express companies are fiercely competitive, but all of them are having to deal with a special newcomer that has shaken up the market.

Ren Ren Express, a phone app developed by Beijing Chuangwu Technologies, has built an online express information platform that connects consignors and freelancing couriers. By using the app, consignors can send express requests to the nearest freelance couriers, and the couriers will get the agreed commission after he/ she completes the delivery. The whole process, including payment, is completed online via the phone. The app will charge a certain percentage of the commission.

Since its launch in March 2013, Ren Ren Express has expanded its network to most major cities in China, and started to get seriously popular.

It has already had 5m users and 1.5m identified couriers, and the number is increasing 14

www.sinoshipnews.com

exponentially.

However, the app has been banned by several local post administrations this year. Zeng Junshan, director of the Shanghai Postal Administration, said the operation of Ren Ren Express might be illegal and could have several safety problems. An official from Wuhan Postal Administration, which was the first to ban the app, said the company has not got a licence to operate in the express sector.

Nevertheless, on November 4, Ren Ren Express announced that it has been granted a first round of financing of $15m from internet giant Tencent Group and venture capital company Banyan Capital. A second round of financing is also underway.

Xie Qin, ceo of Ren Ren Express, said the financing will be used for bringing in new

talent and enhancing its operational scale.

Xie claimed that the company is not an express company but just a crowd-sourcing platform.

Xu Yong, chief consultant of China Express Consulting, disagreed and called the app "an illegal intruder” in the express market in China. “You must obtain a licence if you have actual express activities, which also need to be supervised by the authorities,” Xu said.

Now Ren Ren Express has started applying for local express licences in most major cities in China. It has been granted its first local licence by Sichuan Postal Administration.

On November 11, China’s top online buying day, a gimmick invented by online shopping giant Taobao, Ren Ren Express completed nearly 70,000 express

deliveries by 54,000 couriers in Chengdu in merely two hours.

Most deliveries were completed in less than one hour.

“I think Ren Ren Express is a good innovation to the express market in China, especially since the market is lacking good service,” says Gong Fuzhao, director of consulting firm Horizon China.

“Currently there’s no relevant law for this sector, if the operating mode of Ren Ren Express succeeds, there will definitely be more companies or investors looking to enter the sector, which will intensify the express market in China and accelerate the restructuring of the sector,” admits Liang Cheng, an official from the China Logistics Association.

China’s express industry looks like being side swiped by an app.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

A life dedicated to shipping Parakou’s founder on what it takes to build a maritime empire

F

amily run Parakou made a bold move early this December hiving off its Singapore tanker arm to go for a listing on the NASDAQ. Parakou is merging its tanker division with NASDAQ-listed Cambridge Capital Acquisition Corporation, which will take the shipping company public.

The newly merged company intends to acquire additional MR product tankers.

Parakou’s tanker fleet currently consists of eight 51,000 dwt MR product tankers.

Parakou has letters of intent or is in negotiations to acquire an additional 20 MR product tankers before the end of 2017.

Traditionally a low profile owner, CC Liu, who founded Parakou 29 years ago, has been enjoying the limelight brought about by this recent announcement.

Tightly knit Parakou has come a long way from its founding. Bought as a bankrupt entity in the middle of the 1980s shipping crisis, Parakou has since emerged as one of Hong Kong’s largest maritime players with a very significant bulk fleet to go alongside its smaller, but growing tanker division.

Liu is one of those characters who can genuinely lay claim to having shipping in the blood. He was born on a small boat on the Yangtze, attended a maritime college in

Nanjing before starting out as a seaman with the then just founded Cosco Group back in 1964. Another employee at Cosco, Chik Sau Kam, would go on to become Liu’s wife. The pair immigrated to Hong Kong in 1971 where Liu started to work for Ocean Tramping before scraping enough together to take the plunge with Parakou, which developed from small, humble beginnings into a major player thanks in no small part to Liu’s ability to leverage off his mainland contacts, not least at Sinotrans.

Looking at supply and demand statistics and the overall state of the global economy today, Liu admits he expects a “tough market” to continue for a few more years. Nevertheless, this smiling shipping veteran and eternal optimist, now into his 70s, confides that unexpected opportunities always arise.

“No one can predict the future market precisely,” he says, adding: “A policy, a natural disaster or a new innovation may change the whole world.”

Parakou has been pursuing MR tankers for a while, a sector with solid long-term fundamentals, according to Liu. “We expect that the global demand of product oils will keep on growing stably in the future, especially in the short term when the oil price has dropped significantly.

Compared to the crude oil sector, there are much less market players in the MR sector due to the complexity on the ship operation and management,” Liu explains.

Another niche market that he is looking at are eco-designed handysize bulk carriers.

While ultramaxes have been “very hot” in the market for the past couple of years with a vast swathe of newbuildings set to deliver soon, orders for handysizes have been very limited. Indeed, the average age of the handysize fleet is getting on. The availability of the eco design and the enforcement of some new regulations such as ballast water treatment systems and sulfur emissions will further accelerate demolition of the old tonnage, Liu reckons. “We will keep our eyes on this sector closely,” he says.

Operating in tricky markets is second nature to Liu. He has some simple rules he likes to follow. Having ordered more than 150 newbuilds over 29 years he has built up strong relationships with many leading yards in Asia. “This is an important key to our success, as it ensures that we can get better price, delivery slots and other contractual terms whenever we order newbuildings,” he explains.

Having never defaulted on repayments, Parakou has also established solid relationships with international and Chinese ship finance firms who like his conservative approach to shipping.

“We are a bit conservative,” Liu admits.

“We select charterers very cautiously and prefer long term charters, in order to secure a stable income stream and strengthen our financial position.”

With shipping so fundamental to his daily life there’s little chance of Liu taking a step back just yet. However, he has nurtured his sons in the art of shipping. Elder son, John Lau now manages the bulker fleet, while the younger one, Por Liu, looks after Parakou’s tanker operations, with a proud father still very much at the helm.

NEED TO KNOW

NEED TO KNOW

Parakou Closing in on its 30th anniversary, a major charterer and owner in Hong Kong in the bulker and tanker trades.

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Crown Sea on a crest Former fisherman Lin Cailong was determined to pursue a sea-oriented business even when thousands of others in Fujian were giving up and migrating to big cities

I

n the 1980s, the depletion of fishery resources in Lianjiang, a fishing village in Fujian, saw many local fishermen quit the business and look for work in bigger cities. Lin Cailong, a fisherman in the village, was determined to develop a business involving the ocean.

Unlike thousands of others he didn’t choose to leave, but to start a shipping business.

Lin founded Fujian Crown Sea Shipping in 1988 with one wooden ship. Nowadays, Crown Sea has become a multi-sector enterprise with businesses in shipping, shipbuilding, real estate, trading and tourism.

Crown Sea currently runs a fleet of 17 vessels including bulk carriers and containerships. Total capacity of the fleet is about 160,000 dwt. It mainly transports bulk cargoes including iron ore, coal, steel and grain on domestic routes and feeder

routes around Fujian, Hong Kong and Macau.

“As a company in both the shipping and shipbuilding industries, we have been facing challenges,” admits Lin, the president of the firm.

“On the shipping side, our strategy is to establish partnerships with big enterprises to secure cargo resources which should stabilise our operations and enhance our capability to deal with market risk,” he adds.

According to Lin, Crown Sea has currently established partnerships with many big names including Baosteel Group, China Shipping Group, China Huadian and Taiwan’s Formosa Plastics. The company has also invested in several bulk carriers to transport coal from northern ports including Qinhuangdao, Tianjin, Yingkou, Jinzhou and Qingdao to Fujian under deals with local power companies.

“When the shipping downturn came, we made the decision to take advantage of the small vessels in our fleet and focus our market on the short bulk shipping routes in the south of the country,” Lin says.

Crown Sea is also looking at the Yangtze River shipping market for future expansion. The company is currently operating a container shipping route from Yueyang in Hunan province along the Yangtze River to Hong Kong and Macau, the only service of its kind in China.

The company started its shipbuilding business through the establishment of Crown Ocean Shipbuilding with an investment of RMB600m in 2006. Lin decided to focus on offshore support vessels (OSVs) and bulkers at his yard from the outset. The shipyard has delivered more than 40 vessels and become one of the major shipbuilders in Fujian province and can claim to having built the largest ship in the province to date, an 80,300 dwt bulker delivered four years ago.

“On the shipbuilding side, we have been

Our strategy is to establish partnerships with big enterprises to secure cargo resources working to expand our portfolio in the offshore market,” Lin says, while also diversifying into small passenger ferries.

“In order to meet the market demand for green ships, we have been making efforts to upgrade our technology level and design capabilities to develop more eco-friendly ship types,” Lin says.

“With the current market situation of shipbuilding, the bank’s support is also very essential to our ship export business,” he adds.

Crown Sea has been granted a credit facility of RMB700m by the China Exim Bank this year.

Looking into the future, Lin says Crown Sea will stick to a sustainable development path. The company will gradually replace its older vessels to more eco-efficient vessels through building new vessels and acquiring young second hand vessels. Meanwhile, it will also look for opportunities to diversify the group’s business into more sectors.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Crown Sea Fujian-based shipping line and shipbuilder, founded in 1988. Fleet of 17 ships focuses on domestic dry bulk and container trades.

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■ ■ ■ Profile

Chemical bet Riverine operator New Jinhang Shipping has plans to operate 100 chemical tankers. Jason Jiang reports

U

nder the central government’s call to develop shipping on the Yangtze River, hundreds have entered the world’s third longest river with huge investments in recent years.

Among the investors, Ma Zhilin, president of Chongqing-based New Jinhang Shipping, has proved a wise decision-maker.

He didn’t follow the trend of spending big on containerships and bulkers when he started the company in 2003, but chose roro ships and chemical tankers instead.

The company’s fleet has grown from one vessel in 2003 to the current 34 making it a rising star on the river.

The company currently operates two roro vessels and 32 chemcial tankers with a total capacity of 170,000 dwt. It also has developed its own dedicated chemical shipping terminal.

The roros tend to ply between Chongqing and Yichang, while the chemical tankers cover the whole of the navigable part of the river.

“Every investment of ours is based on thorough market research,” says Ma. “We found automobiles travelling between Yichang and Chongqing had to go through mountain roads which were dangerous and had frequent accidents. The roro vessels we operate offer a great solution for the problem.”

New Jinhang Shipping signed an agreement with Chongqing’s local government in 2011, which sees the line serving three major petrochemical parks in the city. The company also made plans to order 100 chemical tankers in total ranging from 3,000 dwt to 3,500 dwt in the following years to meet increasing demand. The decision came as a shock to the industry, as the order was made at the most depressed moment in recent local chemical tanker history.

However, Ma believes it was the right

decision, as he took advantage of the low shipbuilding prices during the recession.

So far, the company has received 32 newbuilds in total and will order more in different phases according to market situations.

It has also developed a chemical truck fleet to complement its logistics chain.

Ma reckons roro ships and chemical tankers still have huge potential for development on the Yangtze.

Ma says he always puts safety and internal management as the top priority of conducting shipping business. “Without a proper safety culture, you cannot talk about development,” Ma says. “Likewise, if you don’t have a good internal management, you could waste benefits created from business on internal friction,” he adds.

New Jinhang Shipping is also actively expanding its business network. In June this year, it won approval to offer shipping services and operate import/export businesses between the Lancang and Mekong

Without a proper safety culture, you cannot talk about development 18

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rivers. It also signed agreements with a few petrochemical companies in Thailand for shipping services.

“These two rivers are an important gateway to ASEAN countries. We plan to make more efforts to develop business there,” Ma says.

Ma reveals New Jinhang Shipping is currently preparing for an IPO which will likely take place within the next two years.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

New Jinhang Shipping Started out as a Yangtze River specialist operating roros and chemicals tankers. Fleet stands at 34, though likely to triple in coming years.

Has now started operations on the Mekong.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Talent search Katherine Si interviews the new president of Dalian Maritime University

T

he downturn of the shipping industry has lasted for several years now with 2015 unlikely to see any quick return to health. While there are some shipowners eking out a profit, many of the big names are in the red.

Securing decent human resources amid a protracted shipping recession is proving difficult.

Financially troubled Chinese shipowners, facing many tough decisions, need to spend far greater attention in recruiting highly qualified shipping professionals, Sun Yuqing, president of Dalian Maritime University, tells SinoShip in an exclusive interview.

Owners need to improve in their long term planning, Sun says.

“Having a solid, secured line up of talent in advance can help a company overcome difficulties fast,” Sun says.

However, while the growing amount of new maritime colleges and the training organisations in China have delivered many

more graduates in recent years, some of them have not been trained well. While they might be cheaper to hire, they will not actually contribute a lot to a company’s development, Sun warns.

Dalian Maritime University holds a unique place in China as the only central government funded shipping tertiary education institution. Its alumni are a roll call of many of the leading names in Chinese shipping over the decades.

Currently, the university is developing a unique English learning broadcasting system, which will allow students to learn English anywhere in the campus. English should not be a problem for DMU students going forward, Sun reckons.

Sun was appointed as the president of Dalian Maritime University in July this year by the Ministry of Transport. He says his top priority is to better develop the university’s integration into society and the shipping industry.

Owners need to improve in their long term planning

The university is actively in talks with industry players, including shipping lines, port operators and maritime training companies to help graduates to find suitable jobs under the current tricky environment as well as to share the research results of the university to the industry as a whole.

“These graduates from Dalian Maritime University would be precious to any company who hires them,” he says, adding: “I believe our graduates are good, after several years development, they will become the nucleus of any company.”

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW Dalian Maritime University Founded in 1909, Dalian Maritime University (DMU) is one of the largest maritime universities in the world and is the only key maritime institution under the Ministry of Transport. Alumni to date has provided much of the backbone for China’s shipping industry.

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Up and coming Sam Ignarski asseses where China is on the maritime insurance map

F

or many decades now, since the opening of the Chinese economy at least, there have been people who saw in China an exceptionally promising market for the products and services of marine insurance. In the beginning there was a rather rudimentary market, a blank slate which held only the ideology of central planning and Marxian ideas on capitalism. After 1949, the local practice of marine insurance, like shipownership itself moved to Hong Kong. There in an enclave of common law, traditional Chinese commerce and international trade, the sector grew

to become the leading supplier of cover to China related business.

Today, Hong Kong continues to host hundreds of insurance related ventures under government regulation, but the bar to development in Shanghai has been somewhat lifted so that today there are 21 foreign insurance ventures and 41 domestic ones represented there. Is it possible to say that the claims of Chinese exceptionalism are now put to bed? The first meeting of the International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI) in Hong Kong held in September this year here and there provided clues to

Business for the duration If you go back to the early days of mutual offices in Hong Kong, you find the London Club’s office opening up first of all. It has been joined by many others since the recognition dawned that any serious player with global aspirations had to have a good presence somewhere in East or Southeast Asia. Any claims handler can explain how the relationship with members runs via the problem solvers. A typical Club claims handler will have a collection of a thousand open files, a multitude of members asking for something on any given day and an over arching ideology that it is better to offer

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help than to decline to assist. The ally of any well-grounded claims handling career in a Club is a really good long term relationship with a good maritime lawyer. This will start

observers of the marine insurance scene.

Report after report describes a marine insurance scene which is not very profitable for underwriters and cheap for buyers.

The rate of premium growth in cargo and hull has been in decline since 2010. Marine insurance, so global in scope and yet so puny within the context of the insurance market as a whole is 1 or 2% only of the China insurance market. So no great difference here. The generally unexciting profits which can be made in China or even Asian marine insurance sort of put paid to the notion that there ought to be fostered a local industry with

in the first job trenches of claims and may finish with the most sensitive Club issues being entrusted to the very same lawyer that began with informal and unbilled advice on fraught issues like charterparty withdrawals, liens, inter club recoveries and so on. There is a generation of maritime lawyer in Hong Kong which has reached its rising 50s, at or near the top of firms. This generation knows more than the Clubs they serve about how to solve problems in China and the region. Such lawyers have grown up with the market and the Clubs since the 1980s and they have much to do with establishing the city of Hong Kong as a maritime centre.

Insurance ■ ■ ■

The modern regime of marine liability in China needs a smooth chain of intermodal liability exposures

its own capital drawn from non-traditional sources. Capacity has flown into the region, not least in Singapore where a new strong marine insurance industry has emerged over the last 30 years, made up in part of fresh Lloyd’s of London syndicates and a decision

by Singapore plc to provide hospitality to

those who would help to establish within the country a strong maritime cluster.

And, of course, within China itself you have a very modern looking marine industry. There are owners of gigantic terminals, big ships, very large cargo volumes who are all pretty much habituated to finding cheap rates in the marine insurance marketplace.

The scope for a really disastrous loss is not exactly hidden and one day no doubt there will be an incident equating to what the insurance gamers call the largest thinkable loss, which will be big enough to account for several years of marine insurance premium from the entire global market.

But to get a seat at the table marine insurers must find ways of living under a precipice. Reinsurance needs to be good, a rising generation of experts, modest and grand needs to bring on the next wave and the occupation of marine insurance will continue to operate in a multilingual market and

a more or less traditional maritime law context. It is a long game and some of the longest gamers in the business, the P&I Clubs, have made Hong Kong a very important city for third party marine liabilities. There will be files held in the racks and memories of the Clubs which will take two or three decades to settle and close.

Are there still imponderables in the China market for marine insurance? You might say so. The modern regime of marine liability in China has a pretty big set of port gates where there ought to be a smooth chain of intermodal liability exposures. The inland waterways host thousands of small craft carrying goods to the world but these operators are very often unburdened with any carriers liability insurance. Road transport liability in China to many marine insurers abroad might be described as one of the mysteries of the East. Leave alone the steel wheel equivalents.

But taken as a whole, the Chinese market grows ever less peculiar with each passing year. It will be some time more before the marine insurance market enjoys its Chinese century. The China P&I Club has plenty of room yet to grow and develop before the shipowners of the world clamour to join.

China Re’s venture at Lloyd’s of London is a pioneer. No doubt there will be more in time like it both in London and the other traditional insurance centres.

traditional jurisdictions. The jurisdictions to be attractive must seem fair to the parties, not favouring the locals over the foreigners for instance, well equipped with arbitrators

and specialist lawyers and fact finders. For insurance disputes with a Chinese dimension, the attractions of a Hong Kong hearing may in future be irresistible.

Choose arbitration Arbitration of disputes between insurers or between insurers and their maritime clients is a house of many mansions within the Asia Pacific region. If you have a dispute, in theory you can arbitrate anywhere you like and incorporate the legal system of your choice. There is much movement in Singapore, Hong Kong and China to welcome in disputes for local resolution. Last month in Hong Kong, as part of the maritime and logistics week, there was a formal opening of the China Maritime Arbitration Commission centre, the first outside mainland China which is designed to drive regional disputes to Hong Kong.

What makes arbitration within East Asia attractive? You save costs, you can enforce foreign awards under the New York convention and you can resolve your dispute in the vigour of a rising industry rather than under the awnings of one of the

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Ports ■ ■ ■

Greener shores

Chinese terminals are cleaning their act up

C

hina’s been getting a bad rap for its laissez-faire attitude to emissions at its ports. However, in recent months, in line with growing anger among the population at worsening pollution, measures are being put into place to make the 14,500 km coastline less noxious.

The ports of Hong Kong and Tianjin have some of the world’s highest levels of emissions from shipping, according to a new report by the International Transport Forum.

China should embrace the concepts of emission control areas (ECAs) to help combat pollution, an American NGO said in another recently published report.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), while applauding the lead taken

by Hong Kong and latterly Shenzhen to get lines to adopt low sulphur fuel, said more needed to be done, perhaps on a national scale.

“China’s container ports are among the busiest in the world, yet their pollution is mostly unmonitored and uncontrolled” said

Barbara Finamore, NRDC’s Asia director.

“Along with the massive cargo every ship and truck delivers to these ports, comes even more air pollution in the form of a toxic stew of cancer-causing diesel exhaust and black carbon that chronically plague China’s growing port regions. Luckily, today we have a suite of proven strategies and clean technologies, already employed around the world, which can reduce these shipping emissions.”

NRDC has worked for over two decades to eliminate dirty diesel fuel and clean port operations worldwide, including pioneering

Laos connection China’s reach of its neighbours via road, rail or ships never ceases to amaze. The latest connection announced will see Simao port, one of the three major customs ports in Yunnan province, lead construction of an 890 km international shipping channel to Laos by 2025.

The project also includes building several cargo and passenger transport terminals along the Lancang River.

The Lancang-Mekong River international shipping channel was opened to navigation in

2001, but is only available for 60 dwt class ships at present. The new project will allow access to 500 dwt class ships when completed.

The project will also likely see an enhancing of port cooperation between China, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar.

Simao port, built in 1990, has developed into an international port, handling 70,000 tons of cargo and 40,000 passengers annually. The port currently has opened waterways with Laos, Thailand and Cambodia.

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PORTs ■ ■ ■

action plans to clean up the largest toxic hotspots, implement clean freight and reduce port-related pollution at the Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, New York, New Jersey, and elsewhere.

“As the world’s top trading nation, China has an enormous imperative and opportunity to demonstrate bold trade leadership that respects human health and the environment. By embracing 21st century port and shipping emissions control systems, China can clean up its air pollution while enabling sustainable shipping industry growth for decades to come,” said Finamore.

Shanghai continues to push ahead with pioneering moves to become a greener port.

Its Waigaoqiao terminals will next year start providing cold ironing services to ships calling. Generators are being installed now, the Shanghai Transport Commission said in December. The commission said other moves to try and improve the quality of air in the city would include denying access to

old vessels to waters around Shanghai. Cold ironing is likely to be extended to other container and cruise terminals in and around the city.

The commission detailed shipping emissions account for 12% of Shanghai city’s total sulphur dioxide emissions, 11% of its nitrogen oxide emissions and approximately 5% of particulate matter emissions.

Earlier this year, Shanghai signed an MoU with the Port of Los Angeles to study and develop green initiatives including cold ironing.

Meanwhile, a new shore power supply has just been launched at Pacific Terminal in the

12 %

Percentage of SO2 emissions in Shanghai from shipping

Port of Tianjin in a move which the local port authority says could reduce CO2 emissions by up to 10,810 tonnes every year.

Shenzhen, in the south of the country, is planning to provide RMB200m in subsidies to encourage energy conservation and emission reductions at its port. The move comes in response to Hong Kong's pioneering efforts to cut shipping emissions in the area.

The local government will send the subsidies to port and shipping companies which are involved in local shore power construction and applications, and also to ships calling with low sulphur fuel.

Hong Kong has led the way in pushing for a green port, first with a voluntary SOx cap and now with a government enforced one for ships at berth. Local authorities have since held discussions with their peers across the Pearl river delta to get neighbouring ports to follw suit and possibly set up an emissions control area.

Hong Kong twilight The world’s largest container port through to 2005 has decided there’s no need for more terminals

A

report issued in early December stated there’s no need for a tenth container terminal in Hong Kong, but the port needs more land to alleviate congestion. The Study on the Strategic Development Plan for Hong Kong Port 2030, commissioned by the Transport and Housing Bureau, maintained that earlier plans for an HK$60.9bn tenth terminal were unnecessary given the slowing growth at Hong Kong port, once the world’s top container port. However, more land is needed around the terminals in Kwai Tsing to accept more barges from the Pearl river as well as to store containers.

The study reckoned the port will grow at an average 1.5% a year until 2030, reaching 31.5 m teu in 16 years time, less than what Singapore and Shanghai are handling today.

In a joint announcement in September, container terminal operators and shipping lines, represented by the Hong Kong Container Terminal Operators Association (HKCTOA) and the Hong Kong Liner Shipping Association (HKLSA) respectively, urged the Hong Kong government to

expedite the implementation of land use rationalisation in Kwai Tsing Container Port and provide urgent policy support needed to maintain the city’s world-class port status against the backdrop of rising competition and a changing landscape in the container shipping industry.

“It is imperative that the port’s capability to facilitate the efficient and prompt

movement of cargo is enhanced in order to address the current congestion problems that have already reached a critical stage,” the associations said in a joint release.

The government must quickly make clear policy decisions in order to provide the much needed permanent additional land for container handling facilities adjacent to existing ship berths, the pair urged.

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■ ■ ■ HUBS: Shanghai

Room for improvement Fifteen months on from its opening the city’s free trade zone has gained mixed reviews despite a blizzard of encouraging stats Opened up just over a year to much fanfare, many companies have chosen to settle in Shanghai’s new free trade zone (FTZ), but there is a gnawing feeling among many that more could and should have been done to truly make this a 'free' zone.

The high-profile pilot FTZ was formally opened on 29 September last year with China’s premier, Li Keqiang, defining it as the new benchmark of China’s reforms.

In those early days there was much excitement and hope among both locals and foreigners that the FTZ would be a springboard to widespread extensive financial reforms, potentially having the same effect that Deng Xiaoping’s opening up of Shenzhen did a generation before.

One year on the numbers are impressive. A total of 12,266 companies had set up shop in the FTZ by September 15, including 1,677 foreign-owned companies or 13.7% of the total.

The Shanghai Development and Reform Commission trumpeted more impressive statistics. For instance, the average import customs clearance time in the FTZ is 41.3% shorter than elsewhere in mainland China, while the export customs clearance time is 36.8% shorter.

In the first eight months this year, the import cargo value of the companies in the FTZ hit RMB500.4bn.

Zheng Yang, director of the Shanghai Municipal Office for Finance Services, says the financial reforms in the FTZ are aimed at facilitating trade. In the first eight months of this year, cross-border 26

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trade settlements reached RMB156.3bn, representing 15% of the city’s total. So far 88 financial institutions have obtained licenses to operate in the FTZ. Since the establishment of the FTZ, Shanghai Customs has adopted 23 reform measures, which have seen logistics costs drop by about 10% as a result.

The FTZ will introduce more measures to facilitate trade, not only in the FTZ but also in the Yangtze Delta region and along the whole Yangtze River valley, says Zhu Min, deputy director of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone Administration.

So far, so good. However, the statistics and official selfcongratulation does not have everyone in raptures.

A survey by the Shanghai

University of Finance and Economics found that reforms and innovation in the zone have received an overall impressive 80% satisfaction rate. However, it recommended the zone’s regulator further improve supervision, as well as its information sharing system and relax restrictions on individual outbound investment.

Fu Weigang, executive director of the Shanghai-based SIFL Institute, says, "If a reform measure involves several government departments and vested interests, it will be very difficult for it to be carried out, as is evidenced by the slow progress in opening up and innovations in the financial sector in the FTZ." The Financial Times described a growing sense of disappointment at the lack

China is planning to open another 12 FTZs

of progress on the promised financial deregulation within the zone.

And Reuters holds similar attitudes and defines the first year of the FTZ as “disappointing.”

"There are already well established financial centres in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore. If the Shanghai FTZ wants to stand out, it has to show some unique advantages," says Lin Caiyi, chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities.

“There’s plenty of room to improve the soft environment on regulations such as government transparency, economic freedom and business convenience.”

Nevertheless, the Shanghai FTZ is still at an experimental stage. China is planning to open another 12 FTZs in the country.

The final words belong to Li Keqiang. “The scope of the free trade zone is limited, but the potential for reform is limitless.”

HUBS: Taipei ■ ■ ■

Battle of the boxes Taipei is pushing its free trade zones to get more business, but the mainland is also getting in on the FTZ act

Admitting it is no longer a draw card in its own right the island’s ports are now changing tack to draw in business.

Taiwan’s ports have started to highlight their free trade zone status as a way of keeping them in the limelight.

There are now seven free trade zones on the island including at five of Taiwan’s largest ports. What’s more legislators in Taipei are now looking at creating free economic zones at Taiwan’s top seven ports allowing big tax breaks for a number of industries.

Increasingly Taipei has learnt that it is not the actual number of boxes handled at its ports that matter anymore, but the value of them. When it

comes to throughput, Taiwan’s ports have long lost the battle of boxes to neighbours on the mainland, in Hong Kong and South Korea. Today it is all about what is inside these boxes, not how many of them there are.

The value of trade across Taiwan’s FTZs has been growing at more than 30% over the past five years and authorities are convinced this trend will

continue for years to come.

Seventy-four companies operate in the five port-linked trade zones and an additional 36 work from a zone linked to the Taoyuan International Airport.

Most are in manufacturing and include foreign companies such as the London Metal Exchange, which distributes seven minerals from Kaohsiung.

Foreign firms pay no import taxes or income tax at the

Taipei has learnt that it is not the actual number of boxes handled at its ports that matter anymore, but the value of them

free-trade zones. They can also hire low-wage foreign migrant workers for up to 40% of staff, compared with 15% off site.

Now, the island’s transport officials are holding negotiations with their mainland counterparts to cooperate on free trade via links with the likes of Shanghai and Xiamen.

The problem here is that the mainland is getting to quite like FTZs of its own. Shanghai’s much touted FTZ turned one in the middle of September and while it has not opened up as much as people would like, Beijing is already talking about opening up another dozen FTZs around the country, something that would diminish Taiwan’s hopes of leveraging off its FTZs. Sinoship WINTER 2014

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HUBS: Hong Kong ■ ■ ■

City losing its grab on the mainland's dry bulk business Charlotte So suggests the Special Administrative Region’s owners are no longer so focused on China trades Hong Kong's role as a global dry bulk trading hub is under threat as shipowners in mainland China expand their fleet in an enormous way, bringing uncertainties to the market especially in the capesize segment, according to a few shipowners contacted by SinoShip.

Moreover, some shipmanagers in Hong Kong have started pondering the possibilities of moving their bases to places with lower costs as shipowners are ever more cost-sensitive now after a prolonged downcycle.

Hong Kong has been an important dry bulk shipping hub since the 1960s with ‘Shikumisen’ deals between Japanese shipping companies and Hong Kong shipowners.

Having been burnt badly in the 1980s Hong Kong owners have remained cautious and conservative ever since.

Some argue that this stance has meant the city has failed to maximise earnings from the rise of China. The lean fleets deployed by Hong Kong’s blue chip shipping names pale into insignificance when compared with their giant state-backed mainland counterparts like Cosco, China Shipping and Sinotrans&CSC. These mainland firms have, of course, been hit hard by market fluctuations in a way Hong Kong’s owners have been shielded.

A seasoned Hong Kong

shipowner tells SinoShip he will keep a good distance from the “big guys” on the mainland and avoid the capesize and VLOC segments which are going to be increasingly dominated by the state owned companies in the longer term.

Still it's hard to avoid a market which is so important.

China imports 70% of iron ore across the globe, mainly from Australia and Brazil. The nation gobbled up 778m tonnes of iron ore in the first 10 months, 16.5% up from the same period last year, regardless of a modest slowdown in its economy in the

third quarter.

Hong Kong has for so long acted as a trader for much of China’s iron ore needs, but this role is gradually being usurped

by Shanghai.

Hong Kong shipowners still have their niche, says Kenneth Koo, chairman of TCC Group,

778m

Tonnes of iron ore imported by China in the first 10 months, up 16.5% year-on-year

with European operators seeking them out come rain or shine because of their ability to withstand downturns and to always invest in top quality tonnage.

Koo, speaking at November’s dry bulk breakfast organised

by SinoShip and sponsored by DVB Bank and Rightship, told those attending that owners should no longer put all their eggs in the China basket, other routes and markets need to be found as China’s growth slows and its lines take a lion share of cargoes, a view that was widely accepted from other panellists and attendees.

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■ ■ ■ BOOKS

Risky business Paul French reviews a couple of important works that could help your business Doing any business wherever it might be carries a certain risk. That has always been true but understanding the nature of risk can be a mindboggling task. Risk is defined as ‘uncertain events that can affect outcomes’ and this includes everything from weather to pirates; government policy to ever changing regulations.

The key to minimising risk is preparation, preparedness and information, so books that give you a head start are probably well worth the investment.

One of the best places to start assessing the risks you may face is perhaps Mike Clayton’s all-encompassing book, Risk Happens!. Whether you’re a small voluntary organisation, a large corporation or a government department, managers at all levels need to take on and deliver projects that range from the multi-million dollar projects lasting years to short-term deals. However, as Clayton states, “All of these projects have one thing in common: risk.” Clayton’s book is aimed fairly and squarely at project managers who need a practical guide to what they should be watching out for and what they need to do and some advance prep to avoid.

Books about risk are at their best when they are tools rather than tomes and Clayton’s book provides over 60 checklists you can apply to your own specific project, joint venture or deal.

Clayton introduces the concept of the ‘risk breakdown structure’ in his book allowing the 30

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reader (or perhaps user is a better term for this book) to apply risk analysis to all project activities and deliverables item-byitem. If there’s one mantra from Clayton’s book worth repeating it is to remember that managing project risk is more than just a one-off brainstorming session and logging everything on a spreadsheet. Rather, as Clayton writes, “You have to actively manage the risk, otherwise it won’t go away.”

Right now probably many conglomerates’ biggest investments and therefore most risk prone undertakings are in China, a country with its own very specific set of political and economic risks to add to those that apply to any business anywhere. Jeremy Gordon, a business consultant in China to foreign companies of 20 years standing, has condensed his experiences of anticipating and avoiding risk for his clients into one handy book, Risky Business in China. Again, like Clayton’s book, Gordon’s is more of a tool to be consulted and referred back to again and again as different issues arise rather than a book to be read from start to finish and then be shelved. At the start Gordon declares, “Risk is a major reason that companies fail in, or fail to enter, China.” The recent problems of GSK and other pharmaceutical

companies in China illustrate this dramatically, though Gordon has many useful case study snapshots of firms that both got their risk analysis right and those that got it very, very wrong too.

Perhaps Gordon’s most useful chapter is his so-called ‘Survival Toolkit’. This starts with the basics of due diligence and risk avoidance – online searches, site visits to prospective partners and how to check company records in China.

But there’s a lot more work to do.

Document checking, patent and IP protection, credit and reputation checking – all far from simple in the People’s Republic. At every stage Gordon handily lists a set of questions you should be both asking yourself and your business partners. Negative answers equate to massive waving red

Books about risk are at their best when they are tools rather than tomes

flags that need to be dealt with sooner rather than later.

Everyone gets excited when a new business is getting underway – the fun of the deal, the excitement of doing something new, the glitter of future profits.

What Clayton and Gordon show is that enjoying the process and eventually getting those rewards is far more likely if you put in the hard slog of risk analysis and due diligence at a preliminary stage.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Analyse this Bei Hong reflects on a tough year for shipping analysts and wishes them well in the new world of industry consolidation Another year draws to a close and with it, the percentage of years of my shipping career where markets can best be described as ‘disappointing’, sadly increases. This is no place to be conducting a ‘review’ of the past twelve months.

December seems to bring about a host of such things, together with awards ceremonies, which SinoShip has so far mercifully managed to shy away from.

Back in the UK, the onset of the Christmas season is not heralded by an event with any religious significance, but by the annual Sports Personality of the Year television extravaganza, an event which more often than not proves that if you were blessed with great sporting talent, it invariably came at the expense of anything resembling a personality.

Personality is something which participants in the shipping industry have never been short of – larger than life characters have dominated the business for years. Shipowners have always been prime tabloid fodder – Oslo, Greece and Hong Kong in particular have their share of tycoons who regularly appear on the social as well as the business pages, but recent years have seen the rise of the celebrity shipping analyst. They might not be making it on the social pages, but the rise of the shipping conference industry has seen analysts take on a much higher profile – and 2014 probably wasn’t a great year for them.

Unless you subscribe to

Recent years have seen the rise of the celebrity shipping analyst the conspiracy theory that the analysts were talking things up on instructions from their broking and investment banking colleagues who were acting on behalf of the ‘new money’ flooding in to the business (surely not?), then in the dry cargo market in particular, things didn’t go the way the analysts predicted. It was painful reading yet another ‘the upturn is just around the corner’ report as optimism for the second quarter petered out and the third quarter began to see a degree of panic set in, partially off-set by an autumn rally which seemed to disappear as quickly as it arrived. Now the predictions for 2015 are for a grim bulk carrier market – probably a safe bet that should see the analysts regain credibility, but maybe after this year, a contrarian view

could be a winner?

One of the joys and frustrations of the shipping industry are its diversity and fractionalised ownership. It’s a joy because you have so many diverse companies and opinions; it’s a frustration because you are never going to get everyone to pull together. Consolidation is the current buzz word. It seems to be working in the tanker market, but in the dry cargo sector where markets increasingly seem to be under the control of a limited number of major charterers, the opposite seems true in terms of helping owners earn a living wage. The latest candidate for consolidation is the shipbroking industry, a particularly tough candidate for consolidation as it’s totally dependent on people and relationships. Merging companies

which have been rivals and competitors for the same business is never going to be easy as there will always be cases where both companies claim to have a ‘great relationship’ with a particular client, but post merger, you won’t need two brokers to service the account. The inevitable fall out means there will no doubt be a few moves, especially once the bonuses are paid, but shipbroking has done a great job of becoming more efficient over the past couple of decades, with lower transaction costs as multiple brokers being involved in a deal has become a thing of the past, and consolidation can only help that. Broking shops have also ramped up their services, with even medium-sized brokers providing research capabilities they didn’t have a decade ago. Let’s hope 2015 sees the analysts still gainfully employed – even if they do get it wrong sometimes, they bring a lot of colour to the party.

Sinoship WINTER 2014

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OPINION ■ ■ ■

Ignorance or ineptitude Andrew Craig-Bennett argues the resources to cut out accidents are available, yet penny-pinching owners have their heads stuck in the sand I dare say most of us know that the concept of ‘CRM’ – cockpit, or crew, resource management – is applied in three fields – aviation, where it developed, ship operations – and medicine. Please excuse a brief foray into medicine.

In this year’s Reith Lectures in the UK, on the future direction of medicine, Professor Atul Gawande, of Harvard, discusses the concept of human fallibility developed by Samuel Gorovitz and Alastair Macintyre in 1976.

They identified two main causes of failure – ignorance – what we actually don’t know – and ineptitude – failure to apply what we, as a species, actually do know. To these, they added ‘necessary fallibility’ – we cannot hope to know everything.

An example of necessary fallibility is a tropical revolving storm – we can predict its behaviour roughly, through the Laws of Storms, but we cannot hope to know precisely what it will do. It is simply too complicated.

Now, you will, I am sure, agree with me that ignorance – having only a limited understanding of all of the relevant physical laws and conditions that apply to any given problem or circumstance, as Dr Gawande defines it, very seldom applies in vessel operations these days. Compared to the Victorians, who were guessing wildly for half the time, we know just about everything that people need to know about ships and their mechanical and electrical systems.

Centuries of practice, good charts, and modern

One accident prevented pays for your broadband for the year meteorology have pretty much allowed us to work our way safely around necessary fallibility in the forms of weather and uncharted reefs.

Our problem is ineptitude.

We know enough to ensure that accidents can be eliminated.

Yet they continue to happen, because that knowledge is not available at the time and place where the accident is about to be caused – I did not write “about to happen” because ‘Act of God’ is necessary fallibility and we know our way round that. We know that accidents always have causes. And we know that the cause is human error.

Now, the biggest single ineptitude is found onshore, in shipmanagers’ and shipowners’

offices, because it is the people ashore who are responsible for not getting the available knowledge to the place where it is wanted, onboard.

There are wonderful resources available for getting that knowledge to where it is needed, but if, gentle reader, you are one of those people who don’t find it necessary to provide your ships with broadband – and that is most of you – because “What would they need it for?” – the fault for the ineptitude that will cause your next accident is yours. You are not applying the knowledge available to you to getting the knowledge available to your people afloat.

You have a smartphone – of course you do – doesn’t

everybody? And you use it constantly – doesn’t everybody?

Well, you know who doesn’t.

Your own colleagues afloat don’t. You think it is perfectly fine for them to be cut off for weeks at a time. Yet there really isn’t the slightest doubt about what it is that seamen – almost all of them – want most. They want the internet, just like everyone else does.

To take one example of the sort of free resource, which goes a long way to reducing ineptitude, by providing the knowledge to the seaman at the point where he needs it, consider Bob Couttie’s excellent Maritime Accident Casebook.

A long series of modern case studies, each of them short, sharp and to the point. It is actually aimed at the seafarer using the internet. One accident prevented pays for your broadband for the year.

Who is being inept, here?

Sinoship WINTER 2014

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■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

34

www.Sinoshipnews.com

PHOTO FINISH ■ ■ ■ WORLD #1 The delivery last month of the 19,100 teu CSCL Globe gave China Shipping the bragging rights in the biggest boxship stakes 上个月交付的19,100标箱CSCL GLOBE(中海环球) 让中海在最大集装箱船市场上有了骄傲的权利

Sinoship spring 2014

35

Bringing maritime media out of the dark ages

Does your Chinese marketing for 2015 make the cut? www.sinoshipnews.com Sinoship 2014.indd 1

27/1/14 11:59 pm

中国船厂瞄向邮轮市场 港口特别报道 2014年冬季刊

om 日 在 s.c 每 更新 new 文 hip 中 inos s w. ww

谷歌船的崛起?

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保险专题

跌落的油价 冲击海工业

从长江走向纳斯达克 巴拉歌创立人刘俊成的传奇故事

ClassNK 伴随海事产业而成长 不断进取，积极应对 随着全球经济发展与结构转变，当今的海事产业正面临各种前所未有的挑战。 日本海事协会（简称ClassNK）注册船舶总吨约占世界商船总吨的20%，是全球 知名的船级社。我们充分理解海事产业的需求，并根据海事产业对安全航运的需 要，积极开展全新的服务与技术研发。在ClassNK主页上，您可以了解到更多我 们为保障各种船舶安全、防止海洋环境污染所作出的努力。www.classnk.or.jp

目录 ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 3 编者语 4 经济 7 班轮 9 船厂 11 离岸 12 金融 13 商品 14 物流

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 15 刘俊成 16 林财龙 17 马之林 18 孙玉清

我们都过时了，我们都没有意 识到我们被最前沿的科技落下了 多远 — Stopford博士,克拉克森研究

钻井行业已经过剩并开始回落

11

— Mike Meade, M3Marine创始人

政治因素，自然灾害或者 新的改革都有可能改变整个 世界 — 刘俊成, 巴拉歌创立人

■ ■ ■ 专题 20 保险 22 港口

■ ■ ■ 枢纽 24 上海 25 台北

26 香港

■ ■ ■ 评论 27 书籍

3

16

15

作为一家从事航运及造船业 的公司，我们一直面临着诸多 挑战 — 林财龙,福建冠海海运董事长

没有正确的安全文化，何谈 发展 — 马之林，重庆新金航航运董事长

■ ■ ■ 意见 28 Bei Hong 29 A ndrew Craig-Bennett

18

17

提前储备一支稳定的、可靠 的人才队伍可以帮助公司快速 地渡过难关 — 孙玉清，大连海事大学校长

Sinoship 2014年冬季刊

1

船用润滑油

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编者语 ■ ■ ■

www.sinoshipnews.com ASM刊物 编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com 首席通讯记者 司湘

katherine@asiashippingmedia.com 通讯记者 姜浩

jason@asiashippingmedia.com 北京 上海 香港 大连 广州 台北

Li Deng Bai Colin Shek Charlotte So Mark Downing Wang Fanglei David Green

供稿人

Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh, Andrew Craig-Bennett 摄影

André Eichman, Basil Pao 所有编辑资料请发送至sam@asiashippingmedia.com 或邮寄到中国大连中山区人民路9号701办公室， 邮编116001 商务主管 Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com 销售主管 Helen Ong helen@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip同时也在东京、首尔和奥斯陆设有广告 代理机构。欲获取当地代理联系信息请发送邮件 到grant@asiashippingmedia.com。 媒体信息可在www.asiashippingmedia.com下载。 所有商务资料请发送至grant@asiashippingmedia. com 或邮寄到120 Telok Ayer Street, Singapore 068589。 设计 Tigersoft Pte Ltd 印刷 香港雅联印刷有限公司 订阅 总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取SinoShip 期 刊。对于 所 有 其 他 公 司，订 阅 S i n o S h i p 2 014 年 4 期 需 要 收 费10 0 美 元 。订 阅 每 月 发 行 两 次 的 P D F 格 式 的 S i n o S h i p电子 新 闻（包 含 独 家 新 闻 、数 据 和 分 析）需收费50 0 美 元。订 阅咨询 请发 送 邮 件 到 sa le s@ asiashippingmedia.com。 版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2014 为确保 本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努 力，但出版社 对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何 责任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不 得对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以 任何形式或方式传输。

可以谷歌吗？ 几个星期前，我有幸在香港外国记者会主 持由DVB银行和Rightship赞助的干散货主 题的早餐会。克拉克森的Martin Stopford博 士表示应当共同行动起来利用技术，也许 跟随谷歌汽车领先的机器人技术的言论， 引起了关于无人船的争论。 “我们都过时了，我们都没有意识到我 们被最前沿的科技拉下了多远，” Stopford 说。 Stopford表示是时候重新评估去年在新 船上花费的1800亿美元投资需要与少得多 但显著的在提高行业技术能力方面的投资 相匹配。 Simon Doughty, 华林集团的ceo在评论 Stopford的想法时说，任何推动自动化的举 动将回落到供求关系和统一的航运业上以 解决创新。 Richard Sadler,英国船级社的ceo, 感叹 了航运业的保守天性，他同意Stopford的说 发，称该行业远远落后于其他运输方式。 “如果我们可以在承担在城里坐一辆 车的所有风险以及不确定性，我们当然可 以应用此项技术在船舶驾驶上，” Sadler 说，并补充 道， “没有必 要去靠泊它们， 但当然可以在海上的航标和航标之间运 用。” “的确如此，”通讯公司KVH Industries 的ceo Martin Kits van Heyningen赞同的说 道。 “与驾驶一架客机或者在拥挤的城市 街道上主动导航汽车，在繁忙的海洋航道 上导航船舶是微不足道的，”并表示该种 技术在当今已经存在。 “自动航行的船舶将大幅降低事故发 生以及节省燃料，”他告诉我说。 在Stopford提出的这个观点上最有发言

权的人是Mika Vehvilinen，他在接手芬兰 设备提供商Cargotec的总裁之前是芬兰航 空的总裁。他承认航运业相对航空业和汽 车业相对落后。尽管如此，他认为未来船 舶对船员的需求越来越小。 “船员的工作 将会更多的集中在维修和营运监控，”他 说。关于无人船的争论还在持续。

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship 2014年冬季刊

3

■ ■ ■ 经济

经济减速以求可持续发展 尽管媒体大肆渲染恐慌情绪，Paul French认为经济会重新恢复平静 中 国 第 三 季度的宏观经济数 据 表 明，中 国 经 济 正 逐 步 减 速。然而，大多数分析师认为， 这将带来更健康、更稳健以及 更加可持续的增长速度。 中国的经济观察家们早已料 到这一减速必将到来。由于人 口因素，中国的劳动力大军已经 萎缩了一段时间。目前，过去几 十年狂热城市化进程的大部分 工作已经完成— —重大基础 设施和大型住房项目已纷纷建 成（有人会说是“过度建设”， 剑指在实施经济刺激措施期间 出现的臭名昭著的“鬼城”和 农村劳民伤财的项目）。 显 然，考 虑 到 近 年 来 的 情 况，中国领导人已经按捺住人 为刺激经济增长的冲动，并不 惜一切代价纠正增长至上的观 点。本年度的GDP增速预测仅 仅略高于7%，明年还可能会略 降。 其 他 指 标 也同 样反 映 出经 济会重新恢复平静——尽管 媒体大肆炒作崩盘恐慌情绪， 中国楼市似乎仍会在未来几个 季度保 持稳定，其中一些“鬼 城”甚至会开始填充。此 外， 收入和零售业销售额的稳定增 长意味着中国仍是世界最佳的 消费市场，工资上调会带动国 内消费，而不是储蓄，如此这般 循环。 而船运和物流行业的情况则 略微复杂一些。出口净额（即出 口值减去进口值）约占GDP 增 长的10%，与过去两年的小负值 贡献相比，出现回升。但主要原 4

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因可能是进口价较低，而不是 出口复苏。因此，如果发货到中 国，这是件好事；但如果是运 往海外，满负荷还是要比过去 的世界工厂更难以捉摸。 虽 然 经常 谈 论 的中国房地 产泡沫还没有破裂，但房价已 出现小幅下降。但是，政府积 极鼓励现有房主升级至更好的 房地产，面向已付 清首套房抵

收入和零售业 销售额的稳定增 长意味着中国仍 是世界最佳的消 费市场

押 贷 款 并 购 买 第二 套 住 房 的 房主，将首付款比例从6 0%降 至30%。这一政策似乎很受欢 迎，从新房销售额的月环比增 长率即可见一斑，相比过去七 年同期32%的平均值而言，9月 份反弹至41%。长期计划是，不 太富裕的新城市居民将住进房 屋升级后的城市居民腾出的房 屋中，最终让更多人搭上房地 产这趟车。 这应该是2015年的情景。政 府已经发出明确的信号，不会 再推出像过去一样的经济刺激 方案或经济刺激措施——正 在以目前 清 晰 稳 定 的 步 伐 前 行。

中国GDP增长 －趋于平稳 年份 增长率(%) 2007 14.1 2008 10.0 2009 9.8 2010 10.4 2011 9.9 2012 8.6 2013 8.3 2014 7.3* 2015 7.0* 资料来源：国际货币基金组织 (IMF) *=估计值

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公司51%的股份，中外运长航持 有剩余股份。

中远和招商局在九月与巴西企 业的合作似乎预示着干散货市 场最大的争端已经不复存在。 淡水河谷现有的四艘40万载重 吨VLOC已经转手给中远，并由 淡水河谷以长达25年的期限租 用。另外，淡水河谷和中远签订 了同类长期货运合同，由十艘中 远建造的载重吨相仿的VLOC执 行。同样招商局能源运输也将订 购十艘VLOC用于执行和淡水河 谷签订的25年期货运合同。 招商局能源运输与中外运长航 在香港完成了合资公司的注册。 新公司名为中国能源运输有限 公司（China VLCC Company）， 将成为全球最大的VLCC运营公 司。招商局能源运输持有新油轮

Rustibus® 1200 Series

中海集团和招商局集团于十一月 签订了战略合作协议，在码头开 发，金融，航运服务方面合作，这 是北京鼓励中国主要航运企业 联合下的最新一次合作。 中海集运于11月18日举办了全球 最大集装箱船的命名仪式。中 海环球，运力为19,100标箱，由 韩国现代重工建造。 今年十一月，中海集团的融资租 赁机构揭牌，中海集团租赁有限 公司，是由商务部和税务总局批 准成立的金融机构。

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中海发展于十月宣布公司与武 汉钢铁达成股份交换协议，武 钢成为其第二大A股股东。

载重吨散货船购买合同，至此， 中信证券成为中国首家进入船 东领域的证券公司。这艘船将 以光船租赁的方式租给江苏利 电能源集团，用于国内市场的散 货运输。 快速发展的山东海运十一 月并购英国公司Twin Marine Heavylift，公司船队规模达到550 万载重吨。

香港公司Parakou将位于新加 坡的油轮分支与纳斯达克上市 的Cambridge Capital Acquisition Corporation合并，上市后新公司 的名字为巴拉歌油轮。 位于高雄的散货航运公司Franbo Lines十月成功实现IPO，并迅 速开展大规模的船队扩张，在 SinoShip发刊时订购了总共6艘 灵便型散货船。 中信寰球商贸, 中信证券的大宗 商品贸易平台，在今年十月与泰 州市三泰船业签订了一艘51,000

台湾万海航运与上港集团成立 合资公司，上港集团是中国金融 大都市上海的港口运营商。合资 公司主要从事大陆和台湾之间 的网上购物和相关物流服务。 中国正在进行的航运企业整 合开始出现了省级合并。十月， 福建省交通集团整合成立福建 海运集团。该集团整合了40多 家福州，厦门，香港和台北的航 运企业资源，总资产达到50亿 元，持有45艘船，成为福建最大 航运集团。

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7

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船厂 ■ ■ ■

进军邮轮业的勃勃雄心 中国向自主建造邮轮又迈进了一步 邮 轮 是 船 舶制造者们心中的 圣杯。除了日本三菱重工断 续 地制造了几艘邮轮外，亚洲的 造 船 厂很 少 染 指 这个 领 域 。 建造一艘邮轮往往耗资数亿美 元，需要多个领域中技术过硬 的分包商和供应商的参与，建 成后还需要好几年来完善。近 些年来，对于普通造船业务日 益萎缩的欧洲造船厂来说，邮 轮一直是利润的主要来源。现 在，中国的造船厂也准备在邮 轮市场分一杯羹。 中国国有企业中国船舶工业 集团公司（CSSC）宣布，该公司 将与全球领先的邮轮运营商嘉 年华公司以及意大利造船企业 Fincantieri共同开发中国第一艘 自主建造的邮轮。 CSSC董事长胡问鸣毫不怀 疑自己领导的公司能够完成这 项工作。 C S S C自己的 船 舶 设 计 机 构 — 中 国 船 舶 工业 集 团 公司上海 船 舶 设 计研 究院 （SDARI）正在进行规划的整 合工作。 SDARI研发部的一名管理人 员告诉SinoShip： “作为中国主 要的造船企业集团之一，我们 不应满足于建造散货船、集装 箱船和油轮等传统船只。中国 的邮轮市场十分巨大，公司进 入这个市场是一个明智之举。 我们相信我们有能力完成豪华

邮轮的开发和建造工作，尽管 这个过程可能需要5-10年，甚 至更长。” 中国是全球增长最快的邮轮 市场，对中国制造或具有中国主 题的邮轮的需求正日益增长。 中 国 船 舶 工业 行 业 协 会 （CANSI）会长郭大成说： “中 国要造邮轮这件事令我们十分 兴 奋。目前中国船舶工业集团 公司正在做各项准备工作。我 想我们将很快进入这个市场， 这对于中国造船业来说是一个 新的突破。” 嘉 年 华公司首席执 行官

澳大利亚矿业巨头Clive Palmer 大肆宣传的复制泰坦尼克号邮轮的 想法如今已归于沉寂。

Arnold Donald 就 FincantieriCSSC之间的和合作发表了以下 看法： “在深入了解中国在发展 邮轮业的勃勃雄心后，我们决 定与Fincantieri和CSSC这两家 世界一流的造船企业合作，共 同为组建一个世界级的中国造 船企业制定一个框架。组建这 个造船企业的目的是在未来几 年中加快中国邮轮制造业的发 展并刺激对邮轮的需求。” 嘉年华公司的强劲对手皇家 加勒比公司也一直在协助厦船 重工（CSSC的另一个子公司） 建造一艘邮轮。不过，跟澳大利 亚矿业巨头Clive Palmer大力宣 传的与长航金陵船厂合作复制 泰坦尼克号邮轮的设想一样， 这个计划今年也偃旗息鼓了。 在过去的一年中，中国交通

部表达了想要将中国发展为全 球 领 先 的邮 轮市场 的 强 烈 愿 望。要实现这一设想，一方面需 要投资建设相关基础设施，另 一方面要扶植更多的中国企业 进入邮轮市场，使邮轮成为规 模日益扩大的中国旅游业的重 要组成部分。 交 通部预计中国将在 几年 后成为仅次于美国的全球第二 大邮轮旅游市场，到2020年时 邮轮旅游规模达到每年450万 人次。 据渤海邮轮(香港)有限公司 总经理展力透露，新兴的邮轮 运营 商 渤 海 轮 渡 有 限 公司， 可能将建造一艘邮轮并且是在 中国的船厂。该公司今 年 早些 时候购得了第一艘邮轮Costa Voyager。 Sinoship 2014年冬季刊

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离岸 ■ ■ ■

事实随着油价下跌浮出水面 石油输出国组织打击页岩油使得中国船厂紧张起来，海工经纪公司M3 Marine的Mike Meade写道 中国船厂 的海工雄心可能会 遭受原油价格大幅下降带来的 打击。 由沙特阿拉伯主导的石油输 出国组织正在与美国页岩油生 产商展开一场高明的博弈，并 决定不减少产量，我们可以看 出布伦特原油在60-70美元每桶 的基准水平上，未来在80美元 的水平。短期内疲软的油价应该 会冲洗掉高成本的石油产量， 因此上述的美国页岩油有望回 到一个供需平衡的石油市场。 对海工行业产生的立刻影响 便是高端深水钻井船市场，该 市场的资本投入将会遭受巨大 风险。 Infield Systems用布伦特作为 基准，认为离岸油田发展的盈 亏平衡成本范围在每桶20到80 美 元。在成本范围的底部，里 海中浅水项目的盈亏平衡成本 范围在20至30美元，东南亚为 30至4 0美元。相比较而言，深 水开发的盈亏平衡成本要高的

多，巴西盐下为40至50美元，美 国墨西哥湾为50至60美元，西 非为60至70美元。北极地区是 开销最高的区域，盈亏平衡成 本在70至80美元。这些成本与 美国岸上页岩油（使用液压破 碎法）的成本相符合，目前美国 岸上页岩油正面临巨大威胁。 钻井行业已经开始过剩并 且疲软。在最近油价下降之 前，钻井平台使用率以及深水 平台的日租金已经由于大量的 订单而造成的可预见过剩呈下 降趋势。 在 2 014 年 初 始，自升 式平 台，半潜船以及钻井船订单为 各自船队总数的26%，25%和 77%。IHS CeraPetrodata 预计

中国船厂交付平台 平均延迟

50-250

天

全球自升式钻井平台总数将在 2015年底从2014年底的543座增 长到602座，而利用率将从83% 降至77%。至于半潜船市场，船 队总数将在2015年底从2014年 底的222艘增长到231艘，利用 率将从78%降至73%。钻井船总 数预计将从2014底的120艘增 长到2015年底的139艘，利用率 将从82%微降至81%。 更低的油价将 持 续 抑制平 台的使用率，并将影响到船厂 的接单，这种状况目前已经显 现。在2011至2013年的大量平 台订单之后，2014年的订单量 已经减少。今 年到目前为止， 总共有27座钻井平台订单，而 2013年却有104座之多。 中国在平台建造上占据主导 地位，拥有47%的全 球订单市 场，在这次价格下跌中无疑将 受到重创。 此外，中国工信部目前正在 研究一份关于中国海工平台建 造商的“白名单”，借以对该行

业加强管控。 工信部已经向相关公司发出 通知以及管理条例草案，并让 它们自愿发送申请。 与今年九月发布的造船业 白名单相比，海工平台制造商 白名单中增加了技术创新能力 和项目管理能力做为新的评估 条件。 工信部称新的白名单目的是 更好的管控以及优化海工平台 行业，以及促进行业整合。 此举非常明智，中国船厂需 要在按时完成项目方面做出更 多努力。 股票经纪CLSA最近的一份 报 告称 中国 正 在 丢 失 价 格 优 势。CLSA预计中国船厂的劳动 力成本每年呈10-15%的增势， 同时生产力依旧很低。此外， 研究公司IHS Petrodata称在过 去五年里，在新加坡Keppel和 SembCorp订造的平台平均都提 前交付，而中国船厂平均延迟 50-250天。 Sinoship 2014年冬季刊

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■ ■ ■ 金融

亚洲终非IPO福地 估值最终决定上市地

挪 威 和 纽 约的资本市场一直 大力提供投资所需的股票及债 券。 谁能成功募集这些资金？ 亚洲证券交易所能够匹敌及扮 演领先角色？上述都是Marine Money在九月底于新加坡举行 年度会议所提出的问题。 Pareto的Andy Yeo留意到，截 至九月份止六个月内在美国募 集的资金总额为130 亿美元， 而荷兰银行的Perry van Echtelt 说，在所有投资类别中仍然有 许多股票可供投资。 Van Echtelt说， “去年，私募 股权受环保大背景所带动，”并

补充道，今年新增申购已有所降 温，私募股权将希望通过资本 市场或合并另寻出路。 汇丰的Jon Connor发现，截至 今年七月，亚洲在所募集的股 本中占7%。 他强调， “债务市场在亚洲 非常开放”，并补充道： “知名 度对募资尤为重要。” 华侨银行的Andy Teo称， 尽管就成交额而言，美国和香 港的规模庞大，而香港和新加 坡都是非常活跃的海运市场翘 楚。他指出，过去五年里已经在 新加坡股市筹资15亿美元，在

知名度对于募资尤为重要 12

www.sinoshipnews.com

香港筹资50亿美元。Andy Teo 坚信， “市场前景日趋明朗” 离 岸投资、液化天然气、液化石油 气及集装箱投资最受投资者和 客户青睐。 Jefferies的 Harold Malone指 出，虽然在美国确实筹集过巨 额资本，但涉及行业范围“偏 窄”，主要是液化天然气和液化 石油气行业，属于有别于其他 航运业的周期性行业。 荷兰银行的van Echtelt说，就 市场整体而言，液化天然气和 液化石油气行业不稳定，存在 很大波动性。 他指出， “小型航 运公司进 行首次 公 开发 售 将 会比 较 困 难，”。首次公开发售将受私募 股权所带动，而私募股权将会

进行合并以于上市前获得一定 规模。他说，纽约将依然是发 起募股的最佳福地，这也是审 查小组所 认同的一点，汇丰的 Connor强调， “规模才是绝对至 高无上的。” 华侨银行的Teo说，一批首次 公开发售可能会在明年开始进 入市场，截至目前私募股权尚 未过多投入亚洲，不过陷入财 政困境的韩国韩进海运值得关 注。 瑞克麦斯信托管理公司的首 席执行官Thomas Preben Hansen 表示，估值将最终决定首次公 开发售的地点。 他总结说，亚 洲股票交易所及银行需要大刀 阔斧作出改革，以确保部分首 次公开发售来自私募股权。

商品 ■ ■ ■

炼油产能过度膨胀 中国柴油供应过剩拉低售价 鲁道夫·迪塞尔起初发明的压 燃式发动机是以煤尘为动力。 不过事后险些将自己炸掉，遂 转而利用坚果比如花生油等燃 料。 百年之后，尽管拥有丰富 的煤储量，但这一世界上最大 的能源消费者相比以往进口的 石油与日俱增— —广泛利用 柴油发动机，消耗了其石油消 费总量的三分之一以上。 柴 油 需 求 排 在 工业活 动之 首，为许多车辆以及建筑与采矿 专用的发动机提供动力。尽管柴 油需求量从2002至2012年翻了 一番，但在过去两年里，需求量 保持相对稳定，每日保持在350 万桶。 据咨询公司IHS CERA的 资料显示，今年，柴油需求量可 能会下降0.4%，这在10多年里年 内柴油需求下降尚属首次。随着 中国基础设施发展持续放缓， 柴油需求几年内呈平稳态势。 据一些观察人士意见，柴油需 求最终可能会在某种程度上受 益于中国内地发展带动道路运 输增长而回暖。 三年前中国作为柴油净进口 国，如今生产的柴油远远能够 满足国内需求。中国国家发展和 改革委员会（发改委）向炼油厂 核定石油产品出口配额，以确保 满足内需。 据路透社报道，上 述大部分炼油厂的柴油产能由 几年前的45%下降至35-37%。 然而，补充燃料需求增长导 致柴油供应过剩：据石油工业 顾问公司Wood Mackenzie的资料 显示，航空业增长必将使来年

航空煤油需求增长率达到9%左 右，而强劲的客车销售将推动汽 油需求增长率达到8%。石油市 场情报机构ICIS-C1 Energy的一 名分析人士向彭博资讯透露： “由于利润率高于柴油，中国的 炼油厂从去年开始就一直在提 升航空煤油产量”。 定价过高导致供应过剩，其 部分销往新加坡、越南、菲律宾 及香港等周边市场，并逐渐渗入 非洲。 今年前八个月，中国的净 出口超过了293万吨。ICIS-C1的 分析人士预期，年底出口总量将 达到400万吨。 国际能源署预测，今年亚洲 在全球原油需求增长中贡献近 80%，而中国占亚洲总额的三分 之一。据彭博资讯的资料显示， 中国于九月份成为第二大原油 消费国，每年九月份 进口量最

大。再者，到十月份中旬，开往中 国的超级油轮数量创下九个月 历史新高。根据中国石油天然气 集团公司（中石油）经济技术研 究院在年初发布的一份报告，中 国的炼油能力可能会从年底的 约6.68亿吨上升20%至2020年 的8亿吨每年。 中石油的董事戴家权称，到 2020年，柴油供应过剩量可能 达到1400万吨。 然而，过去几年，中国石油 提炼业进行更新改造及整合， 部分程度上已经遏制了产能泛 滥。许多小型独立及效益通常 低下的‘茶壶’炼油厂已经 关 闭。炼油厂建设升级计划可能 会因北京遏制空气污染的政策 而被搁置或废止。 在油价低廉时期，可使用相 对更昂贵但更清洁的燃料替代

柴油等坑脏燃料，降低成本，从 而进一步支持与污染作斗争。 此外，一些观察人士正密切关注 中国民营企业对更省油发动机 或以更清洁燃料为动力的发动 机进行推陈出新的能力。 于可预见的将来，面对基础 设施建设滞后，以柴油为中心 的炼油厂仍将过量生产柴油来 满足对其他燃料不断增长的需 求。中国及其邻国的廉价柴油存 量仍将居高不下。

到2020年, 中国炼油产能增长

20%

达到每年800万吨

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■ ■ ■ 物流

应用程序来袭 移动应用程序人人快递让许多竞争对手倍感压力

今年，中国的电子商务行业出 现了爆炸式增长，在线零售额 已超越美国，成为世界上最大 的在线零售市场。数以千计的 新快递公司进入该市场，意图 在 不 断 增 长 的 市 场 中 分 一杯 羹。 中国快递协会的统计数据 显示，相比两年前，快递公司总 数已经增加了近一倍。 这 些 快 递 公司之 间展 开了 激烈的竞争，但都必须应对一 些新加入的撼动市场的特殊公 司。 人人快递是由北京创物众包 科技有限公司开发的一款手机 应用程序，打造了一个连接托 运人和兼职快递员的在线快递 信息平台。 通过此应用程序， 托运人可以将快递请求发给最 近的兼职快递员，快递员完成 递送后会取得所商定的佣金。 整个过程（包括付款）都是通 过电话的方式在线完成。该应 用程序会对此收取一定比例的 佣金。 自2013年3月推出以来，人人 快递已将其覆盖网络扩展到中 国大部分主要城市，并受到热 烈的欢迎。现拥有500万用户和 150万具名快递员，此数量还在 呈指数增长。 但是，此应用程序今年却收 到了几家当地邮政管理局的禁 令。上海邮政管理局局长曾军 山主任表示，人人快递的运营 可能非法，并且可能会产生几 14

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个安全问题。武汉邮政管理局 的一名官员最先对此应用程序 发出禁令，称该公司尚未取得 在快递领域营运的许可。 然而，人 人快 递于11月4日 宣布，其已取得互联网巨头腾 讯集团和风险投资公司Banyan Capital提供的1500万美元的第 一轮融资。 第二轮融资也在进 行之中。 人人快递首席执行官谢勤表 示，这些资金会被用于引入新 人才和扩大运营规模。 谢 声 称，公司 不是 快 递 公 司，而只 是 一 个 群 众 外 包 平 台。 中国快 递咨询的主 要顾问

徐勇则不同意谢的这一看法， 而称此应用程序为中国快递市 场的“非法入侵者”。 “如果公 司有从事实际的快递活动，就 必须取得相关许可，而且其快 递活动还需受相关管理局的监 督”，徐说。 目前，人人快递已着手在中 国大部分主要城市申请当地的 快递许可，目前已取得四川邮 政管理局的首个当地许可。11 月11日 - 中国的疯狂网购日，这 是网络零售巨头淘宝发明的一 种销售手段。就在这一天，仅仅 两个小时内，54,000名快递员 便帮助人人快递在成都送达了 近70,000件快递。 大部分快

递在不到一小时内送达。 “我认为，人人快递对于中 国快递市场而言，是一种不错 的创新，尤其是市场缺乏良好 服务的情况下更适用”，零点研 究咨询集团咨询总监龚福照如 是说。 “目前，该领域尚无相关法 律予以规范，如果人人快递的 运营模式取得成功，则必定会 有更多公司或投资者进入此领 域，这会进一步巩固中国的快 递市场，并加快领域的重组进 程”，中国物流行业协会的一名 官员Liang Cheng承认。 该 应 用程 序给中国的快 递 业带来了一波不小的冲击。

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

一生致力于航运业 Parakou的创立者谈论如何打造一个海运企业

家

族运营的巴拉歌在今年 十一月大胆地前进了一 步，公司计划让其新 加坡油轮公司在纳斯 达克上市。巴拉歌将其油轮公司与纳斯 达克上市的Cambridge Capital Acquisition Corporation合并，此举将推动这家航运公 司的上市。 合并后的新公司计划再购入一些MR 成品油轮。巴拉歌的油轮船队目前由8艘 51,000载重吨MR成品油轮组成。巴拉歌 有意向并且在为2017年底前购入20条MR 成品油轮与相关方进行商讨。 刘俊成 (C.C. Liu) 在29年前成立了巴拉 歌，这家一直保持低调的船公司最近想要 上市的新闻使得公司熠熠生辉。 自成立以来，巴拉歌经历了数年来的 艰苦经营。巴拉歌在80年代中期作为一家 破产公司被收购，而今已经成为香港最大 的航运企业之一，公司有一支强大的散货 船队，以及一支规模尚小但成长很快的 油轮船队。 刘俊成可以算得上是骨子里都流淌着 航运的血液的那种人。他出生在长江上 的一条小船上，在南京的一所海事院校 读书，之后在1964年成为刚成立不久的 中远集团的一名海员。在中远工作的Chik Sau Kam,后来成为了刘俊成的妻子。这对

夫妻在1971年移居香港，刘俊成在冒险投 资巴拉歌之前就职于Ocean Tramping。巴 拉歌从一家小型的，简单的公司发展成 为一家重要的航运公司与他和大陆之间 权衡发展的能力脱离不开, 至少在与中外 运之间。 从目前的供应和需求数据，以及全球经 济的整体情况来看，刘坦言他预计“严峻 的市场”还会持续几年。而今，航运业这 位笑容可掬的乐观主义者已经70余岁，他 始终认为难以预料的机会总是不断出现。 “没有人能够准确预测未来的市场，” 他说，“政治因素，自然灾害或者新的改 革都有可能改变整个世界。” 巴拉歌进入MR油轮市场已经有一段时 间了，刘俊成认为这一领域有着长期稳定 的市场。 “我们预计成品油的全球需求未来会 稳定增长，尤其是油价下跌的那段时间。 和原油市场相比，参与MR油轮运输的公 司就少了很多，其原因是船舶运营和管理 的复杂性。”刘介绍到。 他关注的另一个市场是环保设计的灵 便型散货船。Ultramax船在过去几年“非 常抢手”，有大量的新船即将交付，而灵 便型散货船的订单相对有限。确实，灵 便型散货船的平均船龄正在增长。环保 的设计和针对像压载水处理系统及硫排

放的新规将进一步加速老旧船舶的淘汰， 刘预计。“我们将紧密关注这一领域。” 他表示。 在变幻莫测的市场中经营是刘的另一 个天性。他喜欢遵循一些简单的规则。29 年来，通过订购150多条新船，他与亚洲 许多领先的船厂建立了坚实的关系。“这 对于我们的成功来说非常重要，这保证了 我们在订购新船的时候可以得到更好的价 格，交船期和其它合同条款。”刘说道。 从未拖欠过贷款的巴拉歌 与国际和中 国航运金融企业建立了良好的关系，这些 企业对他在航运业中的谨慎给予认同。 “我们有一些保守，”刘坦言，“我 们在选择租船人时非常谨慎，并且倾向于 长期租船合同，以确保我们有稳定的收入 来源并加强我们的金融状况。” 航运与刘俊成的日常生活是这样的如 影随形，他几乎没有机会停下来歇歇。不 过，他已经开始培养自己的儿子与航运业 打交道。他的大儿子John Lau现在管理散 货船队，小儿子Por Liu负责巴拉歌的油轮 运营，这位倍感自豪的父亲仍在操持公司 大部分的业务。

巴拉歌 即将迎来30周年庆，是香港散 货及油轮贸易行业中的一家主 要的租船公司和船东。

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■ ■ ■ 人物专访

冠海进入巅峰时期 在福建，数以千计的人都放弃以海洋为本的行业纷纷涌向大城市时，渔民出生的林财龙则决定继续从事 这一行业

二

十世纪80年代，连江（福建 的一个渔村）的渔业资源消 耗殆尽，当地许多渔民于是 放弃该行业，前往大城市寻 找工作机会。 该村渔民林财龙则决定继续 发展海洋相关行业。 与 数以千 计 的其 他人不同，他没 有选择离开，而 是开始了航 运 业。 1 9 8 8 年， 林财龙成立了 福建冠海海运 有限公 司，

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公司当时只拥有一艘木船。 如今，冠海已发 展成一家业务涉及航运、造船、房地产、贸 易、旅游的多领域企业。 冠海目前运营一支包括17艘船的船队， 其中包括 散货船和货柜 船。船队的总运 输能力约16万吨，主要通过国内航线以及 福建、香港和澳门的接驳航线铁矿石、煤 炭、钢铁、粮食等散货。 “作为一家从事航运、造船业的公司，我 们一直面临着诸多挑战”，公司总裁林财龙 承认道。 “在航运方面，我们的策略是与大企业 建立伙伴关系，以确保货物资源，这有助于 稳定运营并增强处理市场风险的能力”，他 补充道。 林财龙表示，冠海目前已经与许多知名 大公司建立了伙伴关系，包括宝钢集团、中 国海运集团、中国华电和台湾的台塑集团。 公司投资打造多艘散货船，与当地电力公 司达成交易，从秦皇岛、天津、营口、锦 州和青岛等北方港口将煤炭运输到福 建。 “航运业务进入低迷时期时，我们决 定利用船队中的小型船舶，将精力放在华 南地区较短的散货航线”，林财龙说。 冠海还将长江航运市场作为未来扩展的 方向。公司目前运营从湖南岳阳到香港和澳 门的长江集装箱货动航线，是中国首个此类 服务。 公司2006年投资6亿人民币成立了福建 省冠海造船工业公司。从一开始，林财龙就 决定专注于近海支援船和散货船的制造。 造船厂现已交付了40多艘船舶，成为福建省

主要的造船厂之一，并且打造了迄今福建省 最大的船舶—四年前交付的80,300吨的散 货船。 “在造船方面，我们一直努力在海工市 场扩展产品组合”，林财龙说，船厂同时还 建造小型客运渡轮。 “为了满足绿色环保船舶的市场要求， 我们不断努力实现技术水平和设计能力升 级，开发出更具生态友好性的船舶类型”， 林财龙说。 “在造船的目前市场情况下，银行的支 持对船舶出口业务也极为重要”，他补充 道。 冠海今年取得了中国进出口银行7亿人民 币的授信额度。 展望未来，林财龙表示，冠海会坚持走 可持续发展的道路。公司会打造新船舶和 采购较新的二手船舶，逐渐将其较旧的船 舶更换为更具生态效率的船舶。同时，还会 寻求机会将集团的业务扩散到更多领域。

冠海 总部设在福建的航运公司和造 船厂，成立于1988年。船队包括 17艘船舶，主要从事干散货和 集装箱运输。

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

把赌注下在化学 品运输船上 内河航运商计划经营100艘化学品运输船，Jason Jiang报道。

为

响应中央政府对开发长江 航运的号召，近些年数以 百计的人在世界第三长河 投以巨资。 在这些投资者中，总部设在重庆的新 金航船务的总裁马之林被证明是一个明智 的决策者。他在2003年创办公司时，没有 随大流投入重金在集装箱和散货船上，而 是选择滚装船和化学品运输船。

公司的船队从2003年的一艘发展为现 在的34艘，使公司成为内河航运上的明 日之星。 公司目前运营两艘滚装船和32艘化学 品运输船，总运力达17万吨。公司还开发 了专属化学品航运码头。 滚装船定期往返于重庆和宜昌之间， 而化学品运输船涵盖了长江的整个可通 航部分。

“我们的每笔投资都是基于透彻的市 场研究”，马说。“我们发现，往返宜昌 和重庆之间的车辆必须穿越大量危险且常 出事故的山路。我们运营的滚装船为此问 题提供良好的解决方案。” 2011年，新金航船务与重庆当地政府 签署了一份协议，这使其成为该市三大石 化园区的专属航运公司。公司为满足不断 增长的需求，还计划在接下来几年内订购 运力在 3,000吨至3,500吨之间、总计100 艘化学品船。此决定会令业界震惊，因为 此订购正处于近期当地化学品运输船历史 的最低迷阶段。 然而，马认为这个决定是正确的，因 为他在此衰退期间可以享受到较低的造 船价格。 到目前为止，公司已签收总计32艘新 船，将根据市场情况在不同阶段订购更多 船舶。还成立了一支化学品卡车车队来补 充其物流链。 马认为，滚装船和化学品运输船在长 江上仍有巨大的发展潜力。 马表示，他始终将安全和内部管理视 为开展航运业务的重中之重。“没有正确 的安全文化，何谈发展”，马说。“同 样，如果没有良好的内部管理，则可能将 业务产生的利益浪费在内部摩擦上”，他 补充道。 新金航船务还积极扩展其业务网络。 今年6月，公司还获准在澜沧河和湄公河 之间提供航运服务和经营进出口业务。公 司还与泰国一些石化公司签署了航运服 务协议。 “这两条河是通向东南亚国家的重要 关口。我们计划在此进一步努力开发业 务”，马说。 马透露，新金航船务目前正在准备首 次公开募股，可能在接下来两年内进行。

新金航船务 最初作为长江航运专家，运营 滚装船和化学品运输船。船队 包括34艘船，但在接下来几年 内船舶数量可能增加两倍。现 已开始在湄公河经营业务。

没有正确的安全文化，何谈发展 Sinoship 2014年冬季刊

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■ ■ ■ 人物专访

人才需求 Katherine Si 采访大连海事大学新任校长

航

运业的低迷已经持续了几 年，现在看来2015年也未 必能够快速回到健康发展 的状态。一些船东可以维 持盈利，然而还有许多大型船公司仍然处 于亏损。 在持续的航运低迷中，拥有良好的人力 资源将有助于战胜困难。 中国船东受财政困扰，面临着艰难的抉 择，他们需要更加注重招收高水平的航运 专业人才，大连海事大学校长孙玉清在接 受SinoShip独家采访的时候表示。 船 东 在 制 定 长 期 规 划 时 需 要 有所 改 进，孙表示。 “提前储备一支稳定的、可靠的人才队伍 可以帮助公司快速地渡过难关，”孙说道。 然而，近些年，中国新兴的海事院校和

培训机构培养了大量的毕业生，其中有一 些并没有受到良好的培训，但是雇佣他们 的成本却相对低廉，这样的情况对企业的 发展不会有太积极的意义，孙警示道。 大连海事大学在中国有着独特的地位， 是中国唯一一所由交通运输部直属的海事 专业院校，海事大学的毕业生数年来都在 中国领先的航运企业中承担重要角色。 目前，大连海事大学正在开发自己的英 语学习广播系统，学生可以在校园内的任 意角落学习英语。而英语也不再会成为大 连海事大学学生前进的障碍，孙介绍道。 孙玉清今年七月被交通运输部任命为大 连海事大学的校长。孙校长认为他的首要任 务就是将学校更好的融入社会和航运业。 学校正积极地和业内企业进行交流， 包括航运公司，港口运营商和海事培训机

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构，以帮助毕业生在当前起伏不定的环境 下找到适合的工作，并向航运业分享学校 的研究成果。 “大连海事大学毕业的学生将成为任何 雇佣他们的公司的财富，”孙校长说， “我 相信我们的学生是高质量的，经过几年的 发展，他们会成为公司的中坚力量。”

大连海事大学 成立于1909年，大连海事大学 （DMU）是世界上最大的海事 院校之一，是交通运输部唯一 直属的海事教育机构。至今，大 连海事大学为中国航运业培养 了大批骨干人才。

■ ■ ■ 专题

崭露头角 Sam Ignarski对中国在海事保险地图上的位置进行评估

几

十 年来，至 少自从中国 经济 开放以来，人们看 到中国的 海 运保 险 产 品和服务市场非常有 前途。在开始的时候，中国只是一个未发 展的市场，一切处于空白状态，仅有中央 规 划的意识形态和马克思的资本主义理 念。1949年之后，海运保险的当地做法是 船 舶 所有权自行 移至中国香 港。那是 普 通法、传统中国商务和国际贸易的一块飞 地，该地区逐渐成长为涵盖中国相关商务

的领先供应者。 如今，香港继续开设着 许许多多受到 政府监管的保险相关合资企业，但在上海 的发展在一定程度上解禁，因此如今那里 共有21家外国保险公司和41家国内保险 公司。是否可以说中国例外主义的索赔现 在已经站 稳脚跟？国际海运保险联 合会 (IUMI)在香港的第一次会议于2014年9月 举行，为海运保险事件的观察者提供了各 种必要信息。 不断有报告称某个海运保险事件对于

保险业者没有多大利润，而对于购买者很 便 宜。船 货和船 体的保险费率 增长自从 2010年开始就呈下降趋势。中国保险市场 中的海运保险在全球范围内微不足道，仅 占1或2%。因此差别不大。通常在中国乃至 亚洲海运保险种类中获得的利润不太令人 满意，让人们形成以下观念：应该从非传 统资源中吸取资金来培育地方性行业。资 金流入该区域，尤其是新加坡，过去30 年 来该国逐渐形成新的强大海运保险市场， 组建新成立的伦敦劳埃德保险公司新加坡

更好的提供帮助，而不是拒绝帮助。俱乐 部中任何有充足理由的索赔处理职业的 伙伴都与优质海运律师有着真正良好的

长期关系。这将开始索赔工作的第一步， 而将最敏感的俱乐部问题委托给同一位 律师，对于租船契约撤销、留置权、俱乐 部间追偿等担忧的问题提供非正式和不 计费的建议。香港有一代海运律师已接近 50 岁，是同行中年纪最大或接近最大的 一代人。这一代人的知识比他们所服务的 俱乐部更丰富，知道如何解决中国和该区 域的问题。这些律师随着 1980 以来的市 场和俱乐部一起成长，为了将香港建立成 海运中心，他们还有很多事要做。

持续期内的业务 如果您回到早前香港开设共同办公室的 时候，您会发现伦敦俱乐部的办公室首先 开办。自从人们认识到任何具有全球志向 的参与者都必须在东亚或东南亚的某处 开展业务，许多其他公司都已开始加入这 个市场。任何索赔处理人都可以说明如何 通过问题解决者处理与成员的关系。典型 的俱乐部索赔处理人将会有一批上千的 未结文件、众多的成员在任何一天要求得 到某物以及具备贯穿整体的意识形态，

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保险 ■ ■ ■

中国海事责任的现代 体制需要顺畅地联结联 合运输责任风险

分公司，并为那些帮助在新加坡国内建立 强大海运保险集群的公司提供方便。 当然，在中国已有看起来很现代的海运 行业。大型集散站、大型船舶、巨量船货 的所有者都习惯于在海运保险市场中寻找

低廉的费率。真正灾难性损失并不一定是 难以见到的，毫无疑问，总有一天会发生 保险业者称之为最大可能损失的事故，事 故损失大到能比得上全球市场数年的海 运保险费率。

但为了占据一席之地，海运保险业者必 须找到在悬崖边活下去的方式。再保险需 要保持优良，通过年轻一代的熟练、适度 和宏伟的需求带入下一波浪潮，海运保险 职业将继续在多语言市场运营，并且或多 或少涉及传统海运法环境。这是一项长期 的事业，该行业内一些历史悠久的从业者 （保赔协会）将香港打造成针对第三方海 运责任的重要城市。该协会的文件架和记 忆库中保留的一些档案将花费二十或三十 年来解决和结束。 中国的海运保险市场是否仍有无法衡 量的事务？您可能会那样说。中国海事责 任的现代体制拥有相当多的港口，它们应 当构成联合运输责任风险的顺畅链条。内 陆水道上有成千上万的小船向整个世界运 送商品，但这些运营商经常不承担任何运 输公司的保险责任。中国的公路运输责任 对许多国外的海运保险业者来说可能被 描述成东方的神秘事物之一。更不用说火 车运输。 但总的来说，中国市场的发展正逐年好 转。还要再花一些时间才能迎来中国海运 保险市场的大发展。中国船东互保协会还 有很大的成长和发展空间，全世界的船主 正迫不及待地想要加入这个市场。伦敦劳 埃德船级社的中国再保险公司是一位开 拓者。毫无疑问，我们还有很多时间，就像 在伦敦和其他传统保险中心一样。

而打压外国公司，例如，配备经验丰富的 仲裁员、专业律师和事实调查员。对于中

国方面的保险纠纷，在香港进行聆讯的吸 引力在未来变得极为诱人。

选择仲裁 保险公司之间或保险公司与其海运客户 之间纠纷的仲裁就像亚太区许多大厦组 成的房屋。如果您有纠纷，理论上您可以 在您希望的任何地方进行仲裁，并且体现 您所选择的法律系统。新加坡、香港和中 国发生了许多变化，现在都希望在本地解 决纠纷。作为海运和物流周的一部分，中 国海事仲裁委员会中心上个月在香港正式 开幕，这是中国大陆之外首家仲裁中心， 旨在推动区域性纠纷带往香港解决。 是 什么使 得东 亚 的 仲 裁 变 得 引人 注 目？您可节约成本、您可按照纽约公约执 行外国裁决且您可更透明地解决新兴行 业的纠纷，而无需在传统司法管辖区的限 制下解决纠纷。有吸引力的司法管辖区必 须看起来对各方都公正，不偏袒本地公司

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■ ■ ■ 专题

更环保的海岸

中国码头将清 洁港口运营

中

国因对其港口排放持自由放 任态度而得到负面评价。但 在最近几个月，鉴于人们对 环境不断恶化的不满日益 加剧，相关措施已出台并付诸实施，以期减 少这14,500公里海岸线的有害物排放。 美国一家非政府组织最近发布的报告中 称，中国应该采用排放控制区域(ECA)的概 念来帮助防治污染。 香港和深圳先后采取了低硫燃料的措

施虽然值得赞赏，但自然资源保护委员会 (NRDC)表示，在全国范围内可能还有更多 事情需要去做。 “中国的集装箱港口跻身世界上最忙 碌港口之列，而其污染基本上不受监视和 控制”，NRDC的亚洲总监Barbara Finamore 说。 “每艘船舶和每辆卡车运送大量货物到 这些港口，随之而来的是，以致癌柴油机废 气和黑碳的有毒液体的形式产生更严重的 空气污染，长期困扰着中国不断增长的港口

老挝的联系 中国 通 过 公路、铁路或水路 与其邻邦建立联系的能力总是 令人吃惊。最新一次的交通合 作便是云南三大海关港口之一 的思茅港将牵头建设一条890 公里长的 通往 老 挝 的国际航 运通道，工程完工时间预计为 2025年。 该 项工程的内容还包括沿 澜沧江修建数个货运及客运码 头。澜沧江-湄公河国际航 运 通道于2001年开通，但目前只

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能 通行载 重吨位为6 0 吨的船 只。新的工程完工后，这条航 道将能通行载重吨位为500吨 的船只。 该 项工程 还将加强中国、 老挝、泰国和缅甸之间的港口 合作。 建于199 0 年的思茅港已发 展为一个国际港口，每年处理 70,000吨货物，运送40,000名 旅客。该港口已经与老挝、泰 国和柬埔寨建立了水路联系。

地区。幸运的是，我们目前拥有一套成熟策 略和清洁技术，该技术已在全世界广为采 用，可以降低这些航运排放。” NRDC矜矜业业逾二十载，在全世界范围 内消除肮脏的柴油燃料并清洁港口运营，包 括采取开创性行动计划来清理最大的有毒 之处；在洛杉矶港、长滩港、奥克兰港、纽 约港、新泽西港等港口实施清洁的货运并降 低港口相关污染。 “作为世界上第一大贸易国，中国有必

港口 ■ ■ ■

要且有机会展示其尊重人类健康和环境的 领袖魄力。通过采取21世纪港口和航运排 放控制系统，中国可以清理其空气污染， 同时在未来几十年实现可持续的航运业发 展”，Finamore说。 上海继续推进开创性举措，以成为更环 保的港口。其外高桥码头明年将开始为船 舶停靠提供船舶接用岸电服务。上海运输 委员会12月份称，目前正在安装发电机。此 委员会表示，尝试并改善该市空气质量的 其他举措包括拒绝老船进入上海周围的水 域。船舶接用岸电可能会扩展到该市其他 集装箱和邮轮码头。

此委员会详述了航运排放占上海市二氧 化硫总排放的12%，占一氧化氮总排放的 11%，约占颗粒物总排放的5%。 本年初，上海与洛杉矶港签署了合作备 忘录，研究并制定包括船舶接用岸电在内的 环保方案。

12%

上海来自航运的SO2排放量 比例

香港的黄昏 2005年前曾经是全球最大的集装箱港口的香港决定不再修建新的码头

1

2月初发布的一 份报告指出，香港 没 有必 要 修 建 第 十 个 集 装 箱 码 头，不过这个港口需要更多的土地 来缓解拥堵。这个由香港运输及房 屋局委托的“香港港口战略发展规划研究 2030”得出这样的结论：由于香港这个一 度是全球最大的集装箱港口的货运量增 长缓慢，早些时候规划的预算为609亿港

币的第十码头已没有必要修建。不过，葵 青几个码头周边需要更多的场地来接纳来 自珠江三角洲的货船和存放集装箱。 据该项研究的估算，香港的货运量将以 年均1.5%的速度增长到2030年，经过16年 的增长达到3150万个标准箱，这个数量少 于新加坡和上海目前的货运量。 在九月的一次联合新闻发布会上，香港

同时，天津港太平洋国际码头启动了新 的岸电供应，当地港务局表示此举每年可 降低CO2排放达10,810吨。 华南地区的深圳计划提供2亿人民币的 补贴，用以鼓励在其港口实现节能减排。此 举是为响应香港率先在此区域努力降低航 运排放。 当地政府会将补贴发放给参与当地海岸 电力建设和应用的港口和航运公司，还会发 放给使用低硫燃料的船舶。 香港在推进环保港口方面一直处于领 先，最初采取的是自愿遵循的SOx上限以及 目前政府强制的SOx上限。

的集装箱码头运营商和船运公司（分别由 香港货柜码头商会[HKCTOA]和香港定期 班轮协会[HKLSA]代表）敦促香港政府加 快葵青集装箱码头土地使用的合理化改 造并提供紧急政策支持，以期在竞争日益 加剧和集装箱航运业格局变化的背景下维 持香港作为世界主要港口的地位。 在联合新闻稿中，两个协会声明： “有 必要增强港口支持快速高效的货物搬运的 能力，这样才能缓解目前已经达到紧要阶 段的拥堵问题。”两个协会指出，政府必 须在政策上快速地做出决定，为码头提供 更多的土地，以便在现有泊位旁边修建更 多的集装箱装卸设施。 Sinoship 2014年冬季刊

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■ ■ ■ 枢纽：上海

有待改进 上海自贸区开始运营已15个月，尽管有很多令人鼓舞的数据，但各方面对自贸区的评价却褒贬不一。

上 海 自贸 区于一年前盛大开 幕，许多 公司选择落户这个上 海的新自贸区（FTZ）。经过一 段时间，许多企业经营者却感 觉到些许苦恼。他们认为自贸 区的工作还有不少欠缺，这使 得自贸区有些名不符实。 这个令人瞩目的试点性自贸 区于去年9月29日正式开放，中 国总理李克强称其为中国改革 的新标杆。 自贸区开放的初期，许多中 外人士心中充满激情和希望。 他们认为自贸区将成为实施广 泛金融改革的一个跳板，或许 能够起到与邓小平开放深圳特 区相同的效果。 一年过后，各种统计数字十 分抢眼。到2014年9月15日为止 共有12266家企业在自贸区设

立了办事处，包括1677家外资 企业（占总数的13.7%）。 上海发改委提供的统计数字 更加令人印象深刻。例如，上海 自贸区的平均进口清关时间比 中国大陆其它地方缩短了41.3％, 出口清关时间缩短了36.8%。今 年的前八个月，自贸区企业的进 口货物总价值达到5004亿元。 上海市金融服务办公室主任 郑杨表 示，自贸区的金融改革 目标是让金融促进贸易。今年 的前八个月，跨境贸易结算达到 1563亿元，占全市总量的15%。 到目前为止，入驻有牌照的金融 机构共有88家。 自贸区建立以来，上海海关 实施了23项改革措施，将物流 成本降低了10%。 上海自贸区管委会副主任朱

中国正计划开放另外12个自贸区。 24

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明表 示，自贸区还将推出更多 的贸易促进措施，这些措施的 有效范围不仅限于自贸区，还 包括长三角地区以及整个长江 流域。 到 此 为止，一 切 都 显 得 很 好。不过，这些统计数字和官方 的自我祝贺并不能让每个人都 兴高采烈。 上海财经大学的一份调查报 告指出，自贸区的改革和创新整 体上获得了80%的满意率，这个 数字已相当不错了。不过，报告 建议自贸区的管理方提高监管 水平，改进信息共享系统并且 放松对个人境外投资的限制。 上海 金融与法律研 究院 执 行院长傅蔚冈表示： “当一项改 革措施涉及到多个政府部门和 既得利益团体时，执行起来将 会非常困难。自贸区金融领域 开放和创新的迟缓步伐就说明 了这一点。”

据金融时报报道，人们对于 自贸区放松金融管制的承诺迟 迟得 不 到兑 现 越 来 越 感 到失 望。 路透社对此持相似的观点， 将自贸区的第一年评定为令人“ 失望”的。 “ 东 京、香 港 和 新 加 坡 已 经建立了成熟的金融中心。如 果上海自贸区想要脱颖而出， 那它必须显示出一些独特的优 势。”国泰君安首席经济学家 林采宜这样评论道。 “自贸区在 通过法规改善软环境方面还有 很大的改进空间，如政府透明 度、经济自由度以及商务便利 度等。” 无论如何，上海自贸区仍然 处于试验阶段。中国正在计划 开放另外12个自贸区。 让我们用李克强的话来总结 吧， “自贸区范围有限,改革潜 力无限。”

枢纽：台湾 ■ ■ ■

集装箱争夺战 台北正通过推进其自贸区建设来吸引更多的商业投资，但是中国大陆也有所行动。

台 湾 的 港 口城市承认自身不 再具 有吸引力，它们正改变策 略以吸引更多的商业投资。台 湾的港口开始强调自己的自贸 区地位，以此来吸引更多的目 光。 台湾目前有七个自贸区，其 中五个位于最大的几个港口。 台湾的立法机构还打算在台湾 最大的七个港口建立新的自贸 区，对一些行业实施大幅度减

税的优惠政策。 台北已认识到，台湾各港口 进出多少个集装箱已不太重要 了，集装箱内货物的价值 更为 重要。从吞吐量讲，台湾的港口 早就在跟香港以及大陆和韩国 这些临近的港口的竞争中败下 阵来。如今，竞争的焦点变成了 集装箱内的内容，而不是集装 箱的数量。 在过去的五年中，进出台湾

台北已认识到，台湾各港口进出 多少个集装箱已不太重要了，集装 箱内货物的价值更为重要。

自贸区货物的价值以每年超过 30%的速度增长，相关部门认 为 这 种 趋 势 还 将 持 续一段 时 间。 在 港口附 近 的五个 贸 易区 中有74家企业在运营，在桃园 机场附近的一个自贸区中有36 家企业在运营。这些企业大多 数从事制造业，其中有一些是 外资企业，包括伦敦金属交易 所。该交易所从高雄向各地分 销七种矿石。 外资企业在自贸区不用缴纳 进口税或所得税。它们还可以 雇佣最多40%的外国移民工（ 在自贸区外只能雇佣15%的外

国移民工）。 目前，台湾运输部门官员正 与大陆方面进行谈判，旨在通 过 上 海 和厦 门等 城 市的 连 接 与大陆进行自由贸易方面的合 作。 这里有个问题就是，大陆也 正在建设自己的自贸区。上海 大力宣传的自贸区已于去年九 月中旬正式成立。当上海自贸 区尚未达到人们期望的开放程 度时，中国政府已经在谈论将 在全国多地开放另外12个自贸 区，这有可能使台湾在利用自 己的自贸区吸引商业投资方面 降低期望值。 Sinoship 2014年冬季刊

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■ ■ ■ 枢纽：香港

放松中国干散货市场 Charlotte So 认为香港特别行政区的船东已经不再如此专注于大陆贸易

SinoShip联系的 几家船东 认为，香港作为全球干散货贸 易中心的角色正受到威胁，中 国大陆的船东们正在通过各种 途径扩张船队，给这个市场，尤 其是海峡型船运市场带来了不 稳定的因素。 此外，香港的一些船舶管理 人已经开始考虑将其大本营搬 至成本更低地区的可能性，经 历了漫长的低潮期，船东的成 本节约意识变得更为明确。 香港自二十世纪60年代起就 是重要的干散货航运中心，香 港的船东和日本航运公司达成 了Shikumisen交易。 在二十世纪80年代，香港船 东曾受到严重打击，这使得他 们至今都持谨慎和保守态度。 有些舆论认为这样的态度让香 港无法从中国的兴起中获取最 大化收益。和大陆国有同行企 业，如中远，中海和中外运长 航相比，香港蓝筹股航运企业 小规模的运力发展就显得苍白 了。当然，大陆这些航运企业在 市场波动中受挫严重，而香港 船东却得以幸免。 香港一位经验丰富的船东告 诉SinoShip,他将会和大陆的“ 大公司”保持一定的距离并且不 会涉足capesize和VLOC领域，这 两个领域将会在很长一段时期 内都由大陆的国有企业主导。 当然想要完全避开这个市场 并不那么容易，毕竟它是如此 26

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重要。中国铁矿石进口量占全 球70%，主要来自于澳大利亚 和巴西。尽管第三季度的经济 有所放缓，中国在前十个月进口 铁矿石量达到7.78亿吨，和去年 同期相比增长16.5%。 香 港 船 东 有自己的 经 营 之 道，T CC 集团董 事长 Ken net h Koo 称，无 论晴好还是阴霾， 欧洲的船东愿意和他们合作，

因为他们应对低迷的能力以及 始 终坚 持 投资上 乘 的 船 队。

7.78

亿吨 前十个月中国进口 铁矿石量，同比增 长16.5%

在11月份由SinoShip举办，DVB Bank和Rightship赞助的干散货 早 餐 会上，Ko o对与会嘉宾说 道，船东不应该把所有的运力 都放在中国市场上，还有其它 的航线和市场需要被开发，中 国的增长放缓，而且其本土的 航运公司掌握大部分货源，这 一观点得到其他论坛嘉宾和与 会者的认同。

书籍 ■ ■ ■

危险交易 Paul French回顾有助于开展业务的重要作品

无论在哪 里做生意都会有一 定的风险。这一点毋庸置疑， 但了解风险的性质却是一项令 人头痛的任务。风险是指“影 响结果的不确定事件”，从天 气到海盗，从政府政策到不断 变化的法规，都包括在其中。 降低风险的关键是准备、预防 和信息；因此，值得投资能让 你先声夺人的书籍。 开始评估你所面临风险的 最佳选择可能是迈克·克莱顿 (Mike Clayton)所著的《风险出 现！》(Risk Happens!)，这本 书几乎无所不包。无论是小型 志愿组织、大型公司还是政府 部门，各个层级的经理都需要 负责并交付各类项目，从持续 多年的数百万美元项目到短期 交易等，应有尽有。但是，正 如克莱顿所说：“所有项目都 有一个共同点：风险。”克莱 顿的这本书直接面向需要实用 指南的项目经理，他们可以从 中了解需要注意的事项以及需 要开展的工作，还有一些规避 风险的提前准备工作。 风险相关的书籍作为工具 而非著作使用时才能物尽其

风险相关的书 籍作为工具而非 著作使用时才能 物尽其用

用，克莱顿的这本书提供了60 多份适用于具体项目、合资企 业或交易的检查表。克莱顿在 这本书中提出了“风险分解机 构”的概念，读者（或者用“ 使用者”一词会更适合这本 书）可将风险分析逐一应用于 所有项目活动及交付物。如果 说克莱顿的这本书中有一条值 得反复提及的箴言的话，那就 是：切记管理项目风险绝不仅 仅是一次性的集体讨论会，也 不仅仅是将所有内容都记录在 电子数据表上。相反，正如克 莱顿所说：“必须积极管理风 险，否则它不会自行离开。” 现在，许多企业集团想必 在中国都有大规模的投资，因 此大多数甘冒风险的企业也都 在中国。除了适用于其他国 家/地区企业的风险外，中国 还有自己特定的一系列政治 和经济风险。杰瑞米·高登 (Jeremy Gordon)在中国担任外 资公司的商业顾问长达20年时 间，已将其为客户预测和规避 风险的经验浓缩为一本实用书 籍《中国的危险交易》(Risky Business in China)。和克莱顿 的书一样，高登的书是在不同 问题出现时可供反复查阅和斟 酌的工具，而不是从头读到 尾，之后只能束之高阁的书 籍。高登从一开始便声称：“ 风险是各类公司在中国市场以 失败告终或者根本没能进入中

国市场的主 要原因。” 葛兰素史克 和其他制药 公司近期在 中国遇到的 问题有力说 明了这一点， 高登也有许多 公司的有用案 例分析，其中 一些公司进行 了正确的风险 分析，也有 一些公司进 行了错得很离 谱的风险分析。 或许，高登这 本书中最有用的 章节就是他所谓 的“生存工具 包”。这一章开 始的内容是尽 职调查及风险 规避的基本知 识— — 网上 搜索、实地考 察潜在合作伙伴 以及如何核实公司 在中国的记录。但除此之外， 还有很多工作要做。文件核 对、专利及知识产权保护、信 用和声誉核查— — 在中国 开展这些工作并不容易。高登

在各个阶段均列出一系列你自 己以及业务伙伴应该回答的问 题。否定回答等同于一大堆需 要处理的危险信号，且宜早不 宜迟。 Sinoship 2014年冬季刊

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■ ■ ■ 意见

分析市况 Bei Hong回顾航运分析师在本年度所历经的艰难岁月，希望他们在新的行业整合时代事事如意。

一 年 又 要 结束了，很 遗 憾， 在我的航运职业生涯中，对市 场的最佳描述莫过于“失望” 的年份所占比例又要增加了。在 此并不对过去十二个月进行“回 顾”。十二月发生了很多事情， 还有颁奖仪式，SinoShip 都幸 运地避开了。对英国来说，宣告 圣诞季到来的，不是浓浓的宗 教氛围，而是年度体育名人电视 节目，该节目通常证明，如果您 有卓越的运动天赋，那么必定 以像名声这样的东西为代价。 名声是航运业参与者从来都 不缺的，甚至比主导该行业数 年的生命特征还要明显。船东 始终是主要的小道消息传播渠 道 — 奥斯陆、希腊、香港均 有一些本行业巨头，他们经常 出现在社交及行业活动中，但 28

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近年来，出现了很多明星航运分 析师 是近年来，出现了很多明星航 运分析师。他们可能不会出现 在社交活动中，但是在众多航 运会议上，分析师要高调多了 — 也许对他们而言，2014年并 非收获颇丰的一年。 除非您秉持阴谋论，认为分 析师是按代表流入行业的“新 资金”行事的经纪与投资银行 同事的指令发声的（当然不？ ），否则，尤其是在干散货船市 场，事情可能不会像分析师预 测的那样发展。在第二季度的 乐观情绪逐渐散尽，第三季度 的恐慌抬头（部分被稍纵即逝 的秋季反弹抵消）之际，不幸又 看到了《反弹就在眼前》这样

一 份报告。现在，对 散货船市 场在2015年的表现做出的预测 是低迷 — 也许比较安全的赌 注是分析师重获信任，但今年 以后，谁又能说相反意见不会 赢呢？ 航 运 业的优 势 与劣势 是其 多元性与分散所有权。优势在 于该行业有如此多的多元化公 司，劣势在于不能将全 部资源 集中起来。整合是当前的流行 术语。油轮市场至少是这样， 但是对于逐步被少数巨头控制 的干货船市场而言，相反的做 法更有利于船东的生存。最近 要进行整合的是船舶经纪业， 由于完全依赖员工与人脉，这

个行业整合起来尤其困难。将 同一行业内的竞争对手进行整 合 绝不会很容易，因为总会出 现 这 样的情况，即，两家公司 均声称与某一客户具有“密切 关系”，但是合并后，不需要两 个经纪人来为同一客户提供服 务。不可避 免的结果是，将会 出现一些行动，尤其是奖金发 放后，与过去几十年相比，船舶 经纪业更有效率，交易成本更 低，多个经纪人参与同一交易 成为往事，整合推动了这一趋 势。经纪公司亦会增强服务， 即使中等规模的经纪公司亦会 提供十年前不会提供的研究能 力。希望分析师在2015年仍会 过得很好 — 虽然他们有时对 市场有误解，但还是给市场增 添了许多色彩。

意见 ■ ■ ■

无知或视而不见 Andrew Craig-Bennett认为，用于减少事故的资源是可以取得的，但吝啬的船东却不提供。 我敢说，我 们之中大部分人知 道“CRM”（即驾驶舱或员工、 资源管理）这一概念 — 这一 概念应用于三个领域 — 航 空（这一概念即起源于这一领 域）、船舶操作和药物。让我们 首先对药物领域的研究进行简 要介绍。 今年在 Reith 系列讲座中， 关于药物的未来发展方向，哈 佛大学的 Atul Gawande 教授谈 论了 Samuel Gorovitz 与 Alastair Macintyre 于 1976 年提出的人 的易错 性。他们列出了出错的 两个原因 — – 无知 – 实际 上并不了解 – 与视而不见 – 作为一个物种，我们实际上有 所了解。他们另外增加了“必然 会犯的错误” — 我们不能希 望了解一切事物。必然会犯的 错误的一个例子是热带旋转风 暴–我们可以通过风暴规律大 致预测其行为，但我们不能希 望精确预测其具体行为。这确 实太复杂了。 现在，我确信，诸位同意我 的以下看法，即，无知 – 仅对 适用于指定问题或情形的相关 物 理 规 律与条 件 具 有 有限了 解，正如Gawande定义的，这几 乎不适用于当今的船舶操作。 与几乎一半时间都要猜测的维 多利亚时代相比，我们了解船 员关于船舶及其机械与电子系 统需要了解的一切事情。 数个世纪的实践、精确的海 图以及现代气象学使得我们在 很大程度上能够在恶劣天气与

海图未标注的暗礁方面安全度 过必然会犯的错误。 我们的问题在于视而不见。 我们取得的知识足以确保消除 事故。但事故仍一再发 生，因 为在事故即将被引致的时间与 地点并未取得知识 — 我没有 写“即将发生”，因为天灾是必 然会犯的错误，我们知道如何 安然度过。我们知道事故总是 有原因的。我们也知道原因是 人为失误。 现在，最大的单一的视而不 见存在于陆上、船舶管理经理 与船东的办公室中，因为是岸 上的员工应为船上有需要的地

方无法获得所需知识负责。 可使 用奇妙的 资源 将知 识 提供到有需要的地方，但仁慈 的读者，如果您是未发现有必 要向船 舶 提 供 宽 带 的员工 之 一 — 并且在座诸位大部分都 是 — 因为“他们需要用来做 什么呢？”— 由视而不见引起 的下次事故就是您导致的。您 未将可取得的知识提供给您的 船员。 您有智能手机 — 您肯定 有 — 但谁没有呢？您一直在 用 — 但谁不一直在用呢？ 那 么，您 知 道 谁 不 是 一直 在用吗。您的船员不是一直在

只要一次事故被阻止，全年的 宽带费用就省下来了

用。您认为，一次出海 数周的 时间不用智能手机问题不大。 但实际上对于什么是船员 — 大部分船员 — 最想要的，不 应有丝毫怀疑。就像其他人一 样，他们想要互联网。 长期努力，通过在有需要的 地方向船员提供知识，减少视 而不见的错误，关于这类免费 资源的例子，可参考 Bob Couttie 的著作《海事事故案例手册》 。这 是 长 系 列 的 现 代 案 例 研 究，每 一篇都短小精悍，一语 中的。这实际是在促使船员使 用互联网。只要一次事故被阻 止，全年的宽带费用就省下来 了。 在这里，谁还在犯视而不见 的错误呢？

Sinoship 2014年冬季刊

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