Sinoship Summer Issue 2015

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The pros and cons of Chinese crews

Time for Hong Kong to forget about its port?

Taiwan's LNG quest SUmmer 2015

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Why yards are not closing

AHTS focus Ship recyclers in the red

Fujian rising Exclusive interview with the head of fast rising provincial player

CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars 3 Editor’s Comment 5 Economy 7 Lines

Debt capital markets have been instrumental in filling the void vacated by banks —Alan Hatton, ceo of FSL Trust

9 Yards

11

10 Offshore 11 Finance 13 Commodities 14 Logistics

■ ■ ■ Profiles 15 Yang Jinchang

15

Fujian Shipping Group will become the pillar of the regional economy development — Yang Jinchang, general manager of Fujian Shipping Group

17 Zhu Chongqing 18 Julian Proctor 19 Liu Bin

■ ■ ■ Features 20 Ship Recycling

We think the large ship trend will continue — Julian Proctor, managing director of Tiger Group Investments

23 Crewing

18

■ ■ ■ Hubs 26 Shanghai

Chinese ports are likely to be integrated into bigger port groups

27 Taipei 29 Hong Kong

■ ■ ■ Reviews 30 Books

■ ■ ■ Opinions

19

— Liu Bin, head of the World Economic Research Institute

31 Neville Smith 33 Andrew Craig-Bennett

The profit space will be squeezed tighter — Xie Dehua, president of the China National Ship Recylcing Association

20

Sinoship Summer 2015

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UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@asiashippingmedia.com CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Colin Shek HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI David Green CONTRIBUTORS Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh, Andrew Craig-Bennett PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao All editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com SALES DIRECTOR Helen Ong helen@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details.

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Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2014 www.asiashippingmedia.com Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com.

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China’s slowdown hitting world shipping For me nothing illustrates the dramatic collapse in commodity prices around the world more than the news in early August that an Australian coking coalmine, bought three years ago for $631m, was sold off for just a buck.

The frightening drop off in prices for just about all commodities has been so severe and so sudden that many very big names have been left in the lurch.

China’s slowdown and the sensational stock market collapse, the source of column acres in the world’s press for the last year, is having enormous ramifications for much of shipping.

Dry bulk’s woes look set to continue for years to come thanks to the People’s Republic slackened demand for key materials like iron ore and coal. Iron ore imports by China shrank in the first six months of the year. They totalled 452.9m tons, down 0.9% from the same period a year earlier. Coal imports from January to June were far worse, down a whopping 37.5%. For a hard pressed dry bulk fleet still struggling with overcapacity the fact that China, by far the world’s most dominant commodities buyer, has stalled means the dark times will continue for years to come. Those observations made by many over the past 12 months that there’s no way out for this sector till the end of the decade look bang on.

Container shipping is set to also take a hit from the malaise in the Chinese economy.

Box throughput in the country is set to grow at 4.9%UK firm Drewry estimated this August, down from an earlier 5.8% prediction. What this 0.9% drop equates to in global box volumes is a rather significant 1.9m teu, not cataclysmic, but certainly not helping what is still a fragile recovery in the container trades.

The one area that still looks resilient to me is China’s oil thirst. China’s oil imports hover near record highs and I reckon they will remain that way regardless of all this slowdown talk. The only problem for

international owners here is that more and more oil is being shipped in Chinese hulls; foreigners will increasingly get shut out of this trade.

So am I being pessimistic about China’s current economy and its knock-on effect for world shipping? Naturally as a commentator it is always far easier to be a bear than a bull.

I asked SinoShip’s resident economist, Paul French, for his thoughts, and, as ever in his glass-half-full view on things (which irritatingly more often than not is proven correct) he reckons we should be looking long term and remaining calm.

“Look beyond the volatility of China’s stock markets,” Paul tells me, “and concentrate on the long-term opportunities.

Volatility ebbs and flows, but the long-term opportunities remain constant.”

We shall see.

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship Summer 2015

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Economy ■ ■ ■

The contradictions of cooling A rebalanced economy marches to a different beat, Paul French writes WALK THIS WAY China’s economy is now consumer driven

There’s a contradiction regarding China’s economy at the moment. A lot of international pressure, and some internal too, was put on Beijing’s policy makers to ‘cool’ their red-hot economy. By and large China has achieved this – the state sector (though still considerable by most global standards) has shrunk considerably from what it was 20 years ago while private enterprise now accounts for 80% of total employment. Most prices are set by market apparatus and not central government fiat; investment flows have modified and, as Beijing was urged and promised, domestic consumption has become the driver of the economy and not export outflows or investment inflows.

In short, China has effectively rebalanced its economy.

However, as a consequence

of this rebalancing GDP growth has dropped from the heady days of a decade or more ago.

It now hovers around 7%, which, for those old enough to remember, was a dip that was supposed to crash the economy.

But no crash and China seems to be living with 7%.

In part this is due to strong wage growth – and wages are still growing. Income rose by 8.1% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2015, down

slightly from 8.6% during the first quarter of 2014. Crucially income for migrant workers, those who move from the countryside to staff the nation’s factories and construction sites, rose a significant 11.9%, up from 10.1% a year ago, reflecting a tight labour market. Jobs are still being created.

This wage growth has now filtered into the consumption economy and retail sales are growing at almost 11% per

Growth of retail sales in China Year-on-Year % growth March 2012 10 December 2012

10.7 September 2013

10.8 June 2014

10.9 March 2015 11 Source: CEIC

annum. People are continuing to buy property and this is reflected in furniture sales outstripping overall retail growth at nearly 21%. The gradual shift in retailing from bricks-and-mortar stores to online is progressing rapidly with online ecommerce business up over 40% since the start of the year.

Not everyone is enjoying this strong growth rates though, and some of those affected sectors could impact on shipping and logistics. Mining rose only 1.4% in March and this will have an impact on the volume of commodities being shipped out of China over the rest of the year.

However, technical equipment manufacturers still seem to be finding orders – telecommunications equipment shipments rose by 12% in March as did shipments of IT and computers. This means things are not as rosy in the northern portions of the country – home to most commodities extraction and refining businesses as well as older state-owned industries – as the eastern seaboard and south – where most of the hi-tech production is concentrated.

The first quarter numbers don’t look good for exports China’s exports fell 15% yearon-year in US dollar terms in March. But the huge difference is explained largely by the lunar new year effect and monthly volatility. There is no evidence of collapse in China’s main export markets, nor is there reason to believe that China’s exports suddenly became far less competitive. Most analysts expect export numbers to pick up in the second quarter.

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LINES ■ ■ ■

Cosco Group and China Shipping have started the planning of an integration of operations, which could lead to a Beijing-mandated merger of the pair by as early as 2017.

A reform team has been put together from the two conglomerates to push through the restructuring in the biggest shake-up in shipping in the People’s Republic seen in a generation.

Giant port operator Shanghai International Port (Group) (SIPG) is buying a majority stake in intra-Asia box player Shanghai Jinjiang Shipping for up to RMB1.94bn ($312.5m).

Jinjiang focuses on East Asian trade and has 12 ships ranging in size from 764 teu to 1,098 teu.

Fred Cheng’s Shinyo International bought five VLCCs for a combined $326m.

China VLCC sold three to Shinyo in a deal worth a

combined $238m. Cheng’s other two purchases were from Nord Reederei and cost $44m.

Cheng was a famous owner in the 1990s who soared high and crashed spectacularly with Golden Ocean.

Shipping Haisheng and immediately set about a restructuring. Lanhai Group is multisector group with businesses in insurance, real estate, energy, medical and infrastructure development.

Sinotrans&CSC Group finally offloaded its stake in CSC Phoenix. Tianjin Shunhang Shipping, a domestic coastal shipping firm controlled by Chen Deshun, took on the line that had been through a painful restructuring that has seen CSC Phoenix’s fleet shrink from 4m dwt to 600,000 dwt in recent years.

The standoff between Vale and China came to an official close with a series of valemaxes being taken over by Chinese interests. China Ore Shipping – a jv between Cosco and China Shipping – bought four of Vale’s 400,000 dwt bulkers and China Merchants another four. These ships are now calling in China.

Lanhai Group bought out bulker/chemical firm China

China’s top two shipping lines – Cosco and China Shipping

– sealed a series of further giant boxships. Cosco came in for nine plus four options of 20,000 teu vessels while China Shipping ordered eight 13,500 teu ships. All the vessels will be built in China.

Chongqing Chuanjiang Shipping, one of the leading container shipping lines on the Yangtze River, is looking for new investors to save the company following the suicide this July of Wang Yuewen and Ren Zhonghui, the founders and the only two shareholders of the debt-laden company.

Nanshan Group, a multisector enterprise based in Shandong, is planning to enter the shipowning sector to support the coal shipping demand of its electric power unit. The company announced its intention to acquire around ten second-hand bulkers including pananmaxes, supramaxes and handysizes.

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

Mergers, not closures Katherine Si charts this year’s shipbuilding musical chairs China’s shipbuilding industry is currently experiencing a recession and a restructuring phase. Under the umbrella of the central government, Chinese shipbuilding firms are living in a restructuring atmosphere that has last more than years already, and they are getting involved in it voluntarily or by force.

Losses have mounted at yards across the nation. During the first quarter of this year, the country’s shipbuilders received newbuilding orders amounting to 5.99m dwt, down 76.8% year-on-year.

The Chinese shipbuilding industry still faces an overcapacity issue, utilisation rates for the industry have decreased from 75% in 2010 to 60% in 2015.

The time has come for the big fish of the industry to swallow up the smaller fry, something that has started and will accelerate in the coming months and years as consolidation takes hold.

To owners’ chagrin what is happening in China is not reducing shipyard capacity,

merely the number of builders.

Yard closures are still rare.

A former famous name in Chinese shipbuilding is mulling a change in brand and focus, and a restructure to fix the bad performance of its shipbuilding business.

China Rongsheng Heavy Industries, once the largest private shipbuilder in China, is considering a restructuring and has changed its name to China Huarong Energy Company to diversify its business into the energy sector.

The creditor banks of the exRongsheng are planning to list all the shipbuilding assets of the company on Shanghai’s A-share market and enforce a debt-toequity swap to fix its bankrelated debts. The company is negotiating with a potential buyer for the transaction details.

Huarong Energy reported a net loss of RMB7.75bn for the fiscal year of 2014, following losses in 2012 and 2013.

Singapore-listed Chinese shipyard, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, is the most likely buyer of Rongsheng.

Ren Yuanlin, chairman of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, said recently, “The government, banks, and Rongsheng’s major shareholders all hope we can be part of the deal, but whether or not we will get in depends on the asset price.”

Haurong Energy is expected to make its restructure decisions soon.

“We are not interested in anyone else but Rongsheng,” Ren continued.

Meanwhile, the two stateowned shipbuilding giants China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) and China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) are also talking about a potential merger.

CSIC and CSSC were spun off from the same group company by the central government in 1999. The business regions of the two companies are divided by the Yangtze River.

However, the merger of the two shipbuilding giants remains unconfirmed. Liu Zhengguo, spokesperson for CSIC, said that he was not aware of the merger talk and could not make any

comment. A spokesperson of CSSC also wasn’t able to provide any information.

The two shipbuilding giants swapped top management in recent years, which has generated more merger speculation within the market.

Another private Chinese shipyard, Sainty Marine is involved in a very difficult restructuring with Mingde Heavy Industry, both companies in dire financial circumstances.

Sainty Marine reported a net loss of RMB403m ($64.9m) for the year of 2014, and the shipyard attributed the loss to operational difficulties due to the restructuring of Mingde Heavy Industry. The yard might face up to RMB2.94bn in losses if the restructuring fails Zhoushan-based Zhejiang Zhenghe Shipbuiding, the subsidiary shipyard of Qingdao Zhenghe Shipping, has announced that it has applied with a court in Zhoushan to restructure the shipyard due to operating difficulties in May. Zhenghe Shipbuilding has been suffering from financial issues since 2014. It was included in the central government’s shipbuilding approved white list earlier this year.

The yard will present a complete restructuring plan to the court in the next three to five months.

The bankrupt STX Dalian’s auction at Dalian Intermediate Court has fallen through on three separate occasions this year.

STX Dalian officially went into a liquidation process in March and has total liabilities of RMB35bn ($5.65bn).

State-run Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is still the eventual favourite to take it over eventually.

“There will be mergers and acquisitions as well as closures as the shipbuilding industry undergoes restructuring, “ concluded by Yangzijiang in a recent stock filing.

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■ ■ ■ OFFSHORE

Slack demand Katherine Si delves into the AHTS sector Two years ago, the central government announced its National Marine Economy Development plans to promote the domestic offshore oil and gas industry, and encourage the industry players to greatly develop and explore the sector in a bid to achieve the target of 60m tons of offshore oil and gas output by end of this year.

Two years ago, the Chinese shipbuilders aimed to enter into the anchor handling tug supply vessel (AHTS) sector to make more money aside from their traditional cargo shipbuilding business, and move closer towards the high-end shipbuilding tier, but now, most of them have changed the initial purpose to build offshore accommodation vessels, as demand for AHTSs has plummeted in line with the fall in global oil prices.

Many domestic yards maintain nevertheless that it is easier to get an order to build AHTSs than containerships or bulk carriers.

“We both focus on the cargo shipbuilding, such as the boxships, bulkers and tankers, and 10

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the offshore support vessels, obviously, the offshore performs well. Since the beginning of this year, we have not got many decent orders to build cargo ships, but we have new AHTS building orders, which is good and will be better,” an official from the marketing department of Fujian Mawei Shipbuilding tells SinoShip.

Currently, the shipyard is marketing a newly developed 64.8 m long electric-powered AHTS. “The ship type is jointly developed by our shipyard and an overseas partner, it has been warmly received since we started to market it,” the official adds. “Now, we have six AHTSs of this type being built, and we expect to get more orders for this product.”

provide a slightly better price offer than domestic clients.

“The price of an AHTS in China is still very competitive,” the official reckons.

Fujian Mawei is one of the leading offshore support vessel builders in China.

Another famous private Chinese offshore vessel builder, Sinopacific Shipbuilding, recently held a christening and delivery ceremony for its newly built SPA150 AHTS, constructed for FEMCO Group.

The SPA150, with 12,000 hp propulsion and 150 t bollard pull, marks the first medium size AHTS in the SP series which is designed by Sinopacific’s own design team.

With an overall length of 72 m, a molded breadth of 17.2 m and a 515 sq m cargo deck with

The price of an AHTS in China is still very competitive Over 80% of clients ordering AHTSs at Fujian Maiwei are overseas owners, which can

10 t/sq m uniform load, the vessel uses a Class 2 Dynamic Positioning System (DP2) and is

suitable for different kinds of offshore support work, oil pollutant recovery, as well as loading kinds of liquid and dry cargoes.

Simon Liang, chairman of Sinopacific, says, “To accomplish our proactive strategic planning, we have to leverage a full range of technical innovations and project management practices. In the future, we will continue to engage in realistic work and make constant improvements.”

The completion of this landmark vessel brings the company closer to achieve an international level for offshore project management, Liang maintains.

Meanwhile, Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries (ZPMC), a leading port machinery manufacturer, has secured a deal to build six 6,500 hp AHTSs for China’s leading offshore oil and gas service provider, China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL).

COSL had earlier ordered two AHTSs at ZPMC in June 2013, which marked the first AHTS vessel orders for the ZPMC, a company keen to diversify away from its core port machinery business.

COSL operates and manages the most powerful and largest AHTS fleet in China. However, due to the recent low oil prices, part of the company's business has been affected and the workload of its AHTSs has declined rapidly.

In 2014, the working days of COSL’s AHTS fleet stood at 4,967 days, its fifth consecutive year of decline, a far cry from 2010’s 6,225 total. COSL has already warned 2015’s tally will be worse still.

However, the nation is to enhance exploration activities in Bohai Bay, the East Sea and the South China Sea, based on Beijing’s energy strategic development plans (2014-2020), so there are still opportunities for the AHTS builders.

FINANCE ■ ■ ■

Eye on the money Sourcing cash for Chinese ships is easy enough these days, reports Jason Jiang

Mark Long, head of transport at HSBC, reckons that reliance on bank finance is returning.

“German banks are becoming less active and we have seen Asian banks aggressively increasing their share in the market, especially Chinese banks,” he says.

Andreas Ostern, senior vice president of DNB Asia, believes export credit agencies (ECA) now play an important role in the shipping and offshore industry, and a new group of investors have emerged as significant buyers of maritime listed equities.

“In the past year, about 38% of the global shipping assets were acquired by new entrants in the market,” Ostern says.

Ostern says there is no need not to worry too much about financing. “Despite the market slowing down, there’s plenty of funds available,” he says.

“Massive inflows of capital through bond and equity

markets are slowing down. We expect consolidation going forward rather than continued high ECM activity,” Ostern adds.

Yang Changkun, managing director of ICBC Leasing, the financial leasing arm of China’s state-run bank ICBC, says there will be a capital boost in China’s shipping industry in the next decade, thanks to China’s recent maritime strategic plan, which is going to lead to a further transformation and expansion of the shipbuilding industry.

However, Yang says Chinese banks are still playing a minor part in the shipping industry and they are still in the learning phase, mostly due to a lack of understanding in shipping and risk, and a lack of diversity in products.

“A key provider of capital to the shipping markets is the banks and their presence is growing once more, and debt capital markets have been instrumental in filling the void

vacated by banks,” says Alan Hatton, ceo of Singapore’s FSL Trust. He thinks that equity capital markets can also provide some support if the timing is right.

“We have maintained growth over the last decade but I think it will now be challenging because we are not seeing an increase in shipbuilding activities in China this year,” says Li Xiang, deputy director, transport finance department, China Exim Bank.

According to Li, China Exim Bank committed $15.8bn to its ship financing portfolio in 2014 and the offshore sector has only taken up a small proportion of the amount, as Chinese yards started to become active in building offshore vessels only three to four years ago.

“We finance only China-built vessels and offshore has not been traditionally strong for Chinese shipyards. We tend to be very selective in choosing

our clients and we focus on the big names that deal directly with the oil companies. We also normally require long term employment attached to the offshore asset,” Li says.

China Exim Bank will continue to prioritise lendings to higher technology, higher value assets such as LNG vessels, offshore vessels and ecoships. “We will have new funding channels and we are also ready to finance secondhand and domestic vessels,” Li reveals.

Li believes that China’s increasing volume of LNG imports will bring huge market potential for the bank. “We think LNG will be one of our priorities and our financing will require the vessels to come with long term charters.”

For Chinese state-run companies seeking finance overseas, it is a different scenario.

In March, the China Banking Regulatory Commission sent a warning to foreign banks, including ship finance banks like DNB, asking them to be more discreet in offering credit facilities to China’s state owned enterprises (SOEs). Some banks have also tightened the lending rules to SOEs. "Not all SOEs in China receive the same degree of government support. It is our further belief that the differentiation of such support will widen in the future as the government continues to pursue a market economy," Singapore’s DBS Bank said in a recent report.

According to the document, DBS Bank now divides SOEs in China into tiers according to their likely level of government support.

"The Chinese banks might still offer a lot of financing to SOEs under the arrangements of the government, but for foreign banks the SOEs are no longer risk free," warns Sun Min, a shipping and logistics analyst at China Investment Securities.

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Commodities ■ ■ ■

Dirty coal on China’s blacklist Coal use is peaking in the world’s most populous nation, reports Mark Downing

Much like the industrial revolution, nothing has fuelled China’s modernisation more than cheap, plentiful, yet devastatingly dirty coal.

But with worsening air pollution, the tide is turning away from China’s reliance on coal, towards increasingly cheaper and cleaner alternate energy sources.

Air pollution is not just a blight on quality of life causing a substantial number of premature deaths, it is also damaging China’s international image, especially in the run-up for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.

This past March at the National Congress, China’s prime minister, Li Keqiang, renewed his pledge to tackle chronic pollution, a problem now of national fixation. Li emphasised the need to wean China off its coal addiction, promote renewable energy and punish both polluting companies and lax officials still bent on economic—not environmental—gain. Policymakers are now notably less emphatic on GDP growth, long an obsession of government officials at all levels, in lieu of greenness.

Supporting the pro-environmental rhetoric, the finance ministry offered nearly $2bn to combat air pollution this year, nearly 10% more than 2014, with

subsidies for energy conservation and emission reduction rising 40% this year to nearly $8bn.

Beijing also appears to be planning the largest overhaul of its power industry in over a decade, embracing market forces, which may place significant pressure on inefficient dirty coal power generators.

Detailing its clean coal action plan 2015-2020, the National Energy Administration (NEA) is promoting centralised heating and power supply by natural gas and renewables, replacing low quality thermal coal that fuels roughly 600,000 industrial boilers pervasive in residential areas of northern China. By 2020, the NEA has mandated that power around the major urban areas of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou be generated by natural gas or clean coal. An earlier action plan released by the ministry of industry and

3.7bn

Chinese annual coal consumption in tonnes, which accounts for twothirds of its energy demand

information technology, coal consumption was to be cut by 80m tonnes by 2017, and double that by 2020.

China's annual coal consumption of 3.7bn tonnes accounts for two-thirds of its energy demand. It is still the world’s biggest coal consumer, burning half the world’s share, and has accounted for fourfifths of global demand growth since 2000. But after decades of heavy use, China is potentially at or near the peak coal inflection point many analysts expected to be reached in 2020.

Output and demand fell last year for the first time in 14 years, both shrinking by nearly 3% according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

In the first four months of this year, demand fell 8% year-onyear. Total imports up to May reached 83m tonnes, down 38% compared with the previous year, according to preliminary government data, all while demand for oil and natural gas has increased.

“Imports [of coal] are constantly decreasing compared to last year due to new policies, and the use of new [renewable] energy,” Zheng Nan, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities, recently told Reuters.

China may be on track for a 5% absolute decline in total coal

consumption compared to 2014.

Skeptically, some analysts question such statistics, suggesting under-reporting to comply with tougher air pollution laws.

Half the world’s steel is smelted in China’s northern industrial heartlands, further acerbating air quality. But the anemic economy, improved blast furnace technology and the closure of less efficient smelters have dampened demand for higher quality imported coking coal.

By having banned building new heavily polluting coal power plants and steel factories in key cities along the eastern coast, Beijing is driving the coal industry westward towards China’s massive coal reserves.

While mindful of the coal sector’s 6m jobs, the central government is pushing cleaner energy and dissuading the economy away from energy-intensive industries such as steel.

Other emerging markets in Africa and India are expected to increase their demand for coal, with some analysts expecting global demand to peak in the 2030s. The Indian government expects up to a 20% increase in coal exports this year, but ultimately seeks private contractors to develop its untapped coalfields to the chagrin of the current Indonesian, Australian and South African seaborne coal exporters.

If China’s economy stalls and requires economic stimulus, or the cost of alternative fuels increase, China’s coal consumption may rise. The coal market is clearly oversupplied now, but with investments slowing, emerging market demand may rebound in the coming years.

While some observers are optimistic about demand picking up in other emerging markets, such imports will likely not offset China’s cutback.

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■ ■ ■ LOGISTICS

River connections Jason Jiang looks at how Beijing is changing shipping on the Yangtze With the central government’s policy of shifting manufacturing from coastal regions to the inland regions, the demand for more cost efficient transport from inland river ports to major coastal ports has been greatly increased.

The Yangtze River, the longest river in China and third longest in the world, links 11 provinces from the East China Sea to Sichuan, one of the most industrialised provinces in western China. With its 3,728 miles of navigable waterways, it is now the world’s busiest inland waterway for freight transport.

China’s State Council released a new initiative in 2014 to develop the Yangtze River region as an economic zone called the Golden Waterway Economic Belt, the area accounts for 40% of China’s total GDP. The initiative calls for strengthening shipping capacity and intermodal logistics along the Yangtze River by expanding roadway and railway networks. It also aims at improving river to sea direct shipping services, which transport the cargo directly from river ports to coastal ports without transit, supported by spreading manufacturing bases in the middle and west of the country, as part of the government’s ‘Go West’ policy.

“River to sea direct shipping services have become a new trend for shipping cargo from inland regions to coastal regions, and it has greatly enhanced the efficiency and reduced the logistics cost, comparing with road-sea transport and rail-sea transport,” says Gu Qiangsheng, general manger 14

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of Wuhan Port Container Company.

“However, it requires the ships to meet the Ministry of Transport’s standards to operate such a service, and the infrastructure levels of the Yangtze River ports are uneven, which has slowed down the development of the service,” Gu adds.

According to Gu, the river to sea direct service has been on and off in the past few years.

Currently Cosco and China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) jointly operate a river to sea direct service at Wuhan port.

Cosco-affiliated Shanghai Pan Asia Shipping said it has already added river-coastal vessels in the company’s newbuild plan this year, and it expects to start operation of the vessels from Shanghai next year.

In April, the Yangtze River Administration of Navigational Affairs, China Classification Society and the Zhoushan government in Zhejiang signed

a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to collaborate on the research and development of river-coastal cargo ships, in order to further shorten cargo transfer time from inland ports to ocean ports.

In the same month Zhoushan Port also signed agreements with a number of Yangtze River ports including Chongqing, Yichang, Wuhan, Nanjing and Taizhou to jointly develop river-sea direct transport, while the Zhoushan government and a number of local banks and financial institutions have also established an investment fund dedicated to the development of river-sea direct transport.

According to an official from Changjiang Shipping Corporation (CSC), the largest inland shipping company in China, the company is currently looking to expand its fleet of river-coastal vessels to meet the growing demand. The company

currently operates 25 rivercoastal vessels.

“We believe there is huge room for the market to grow, and we have been making efforts to develop the business in this sector, including the R&D of new vessel types and making investments to upgrade infrastructure at some river ports. The river-coastal vessel is also expected to be included in the government’s Yangtze River vessel standardisation plan, which will offer subsidy support to shipping companies, ” the official explains.

“Currently we haven’t seen much business increase in the sector, due to the limited available vessels and route networks, and currently road-sea transport is still the fastest and most popular transport mode thanks to the flexibility of road transport, but we do see the market has huge potential in the future,” says Zhou Ping, a station manger at Agility Logistics.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Fujian first The merger last year of three provincial lines has fostered a regional powerhouse, writes Jason Jiang

F

ujian, on the southeast coast of China, has always been an important shipping gateway for the country. The famous Chinese voyager Zheng He started his first voyage from Quanzhou in Fujian in 1405, opening a new chapter for the ocean shipping history of China.

As part of the plan to enhance the overall maritime power of the province, Fujian Provincial Communication Transportation Group merged the major shipping assets in Fujian and established Fujian Shipping Group at the end of 2014.

The new Fujian Shipping Group has integrated the three largest shipping companies in Fujian province, including Fujian Shipping Company, Xiamen Shipping Company and Orient Shipping Company and more than 40 medium and small sized companies with total assets valued at RMB5bn.

The group has become the top shipping group and crew management group in the coastal province with a fleet of 45 vessels.

Yang Jinchang, formerly the general manager of Fujian Shipping Company, has become the general manger of the new group.

“The total annual cargo throughput in Fujian is more than 300m tons, previously 90% of that figure is completed by shipping companies outside Fujian, but now the situation will be changed gradually with the

establishment of Fujian Shipping Group,” Yang says.

According to Yang, the group has made clear business divisions for the three major shipping companies after the merger. Fujian Shipping Company now mainly focuses on bulk shipping, Orient Shipping looks after container shipping, while Xiamen Shipping has dedicated its business to passenger transport after transferring its bulker assets to Fujian Shipping Company.

“The integration of the shipping assets in Fujian has optimised the fleet assets in the province and enhanced our shipping capability,” Yang says, adding that Fujian Shipping Group has set a good example for the promotion of mergers and alliances in the local shipping industry to cope with the current market recession. Beijing has been pushing for far greater maritime mergers since the downturn kicked in.

In April, the Fujian Free Trade Zone (FTZ) has officially started operations, following in the footsteps of Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangzhou.

The Fujian FTZ has been divided into three parts in Fuzhou, Xiamen and Pingtan with a total area of 118 sq km. One of the Fujian FTZ’s top priorities is to boost trade relations between mainland China and Taiwan.

Yang reckons the group is expected to benefit from the Fujian FTZ, and it is also planning to increase service offerings

between China and Taiwan with its integrated container fleet. The group has been approved by the Ministry of Transport to operate direct container services to Taiwan.

Yang says a number of steel and power projects will start operations in Fujian soon, which will increase shipping demand substantially.

Currently Fujian has also been restructuring its port assets. Xiamen Port completed a major restructuring in 2014, which has integrated a number of port terminal companies. Putian Port Group was also established at the end of 2014 with the integration of the port assets in Meizhou Bay. For the past few years, Fujian’s annual investment in ports has been about RMB10bn. According to a port development guidance released by the local government in 2014, Fujian plans to integrate all container shipping business into Xiamen port and Jiangyin port area of Fuzhou, dry bulk shipping into Luoyuanwan port area of Fuzhou and north of Meizhou Bay, liquid bulk shipping into Zhangzhou port and south of Meizhou Bay. Yang believes the development of both the shipping and port industries will bring more upstream traders and suppliers and eventually accelerate the upgrade of the whole industrial chain.

“Speaking on this level, I think Fujian Shipping Group will become the pillar of the regional economy development,” Yang concludes.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Fujian Shipping Group Established at the end of 2014, Fujian Shipping Group is an integration of three major shipping companies in Fujian and more 40 shipping related companies. The group currently operates a fleet of 45 vessels.

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Fleet optimisation time A Hangzhou conglomerate is looking at snapping up some bulker bargains. Jason Jiang reports

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angzhou-based Zhejiang Hangmin Group, a large scale multi-sector enterprise primarily engaged in the businesses of printing, textiles, electric power and coal trading, also runs a shipowning subsidiary called Hangmin Shipping, which is dedicated to the coal and ore shipping business in the domestic coastal, Yangtze and Pearl river markets. The company currently operates three bulk carriers with a total capacity of 65,800 dwt.

Zhu Chongqing, president of the group, started a small printing textile factory in Hangmin village near Hangzhou in 1979, and the factory has grown into the current Shanghai-listed Hangmin Group, a vast sprawling conglomerate.

Zhu, also the head of Hangmin village, has been leading the development of the village and has transformed it into one of the richest villages in China, with factories in various sectors including textiles, electric power, gold processing, metal production and sewage treatment.

Zhu says shipping is a critical segment of the group’s multi-sector business and it creates synergies for the group’s supply chain.

“With the establishment of the shipping business, we have completed and activated our whole supply chain,” Zhu says.

Hangmin Shipping was established in 2008 by Hangmin Group and Shenzhen Bolian Industry, with Hangmin Group gaining full control of Hangmin Shipping in 2013.

Zhu explains that the large production

domestic coal market and the declining coal price has worsened the bulk shipping market. Currently about 80% of the coalmines in China are suffering losses.

However, Zhu is not a pessimist. He says Hangmin Shipping is doing research on the shipping market, newbuild market and scrapping market, and preparing to optimise its fleet in order to better meet market demands. Hangmin Group is also in negotiations to acquire some coalmine assets to boost its coal trading business and also to support the shipping business.

Zhu reckons the recession times in the market is also a good time to invest, and to target the right asset is crucial. “On the premise of controllable risk, we are always willing to make investments in order to gain new growth points,” Zhu adds.

He also claims that the domestic coastal coal shipping market has been showing signs of recovery from April, with rates slightly improving recently. facility of the group is supported by the electric power plant it operates, while the plant is also supported by its coal trading and shipping business.

Zhu admits the shipping business is suffering losses due to the continued recession in the bulk shipping market. Hangmin Shipping suffered a net loss of RMB15.44m last year.

“We are making efforts and trying to make Hangmin Shipping return to profit, but I think it is not easy to accomplish in the short term,” Zhu says.

Zhu thinks the overcapacity in the

We are always willing to make investments in order to gain new growth points

NEED NEED TO TO KNOW KNOW

Hangmin Shipping Established in 2008, Hangmin Shipping is the shipping subsidiary of Shanghailisted Hangmin Group, a multi-sector enterprise mainly engaged in the businesses of printing textile, electric power and coal trading. The company currently operates a fleet of three bulkers.

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■ ■ ■ Profile

Opportunities in all trades Julian Proctor, managing director of Hong Kong’s Tiger Group Investments, identifies investment potential across many sectors

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ontainer shipping is set to go through a “great renaissance”, unlike dry bulk which will remain an “uncertain” market for years to come, claims Julian Proctor, managing director at Tiger Group Investments, the firm behind names such as Seaspan, Greathorse Shipping, POSH Terasea and GC Industrial Investments (GCI).

Tiger, via Seaspan and GCI, has links to more than $10bn in containership assets.

For Proctor, the sector is primed for strong growth. “Those businesses are entering into a great renaissance as liners report better results,” he says, adding: “The next 12 months will be very favourable for containership lessors.”

The trend to order ever larger boxships is likely to lead Seaspan back to Korea for some big ships soon. “We think the large ship trend will continue. There’s a lot more liners who will come in for them,” he says from his office overlooking Victoria Harbour in Hong Kong.

Container shipping’s glad tidings are not replicated however in dry bulk, something Tiger is exposed to via holdings Greathorse

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We think tankers are very fully valued, we will not be investing here apart from in stainless steel chemical tankers Shipping and Tiger Bulk.

“Dry bulk is going to have a very tough time for a few years,” concedes Proctor, “but this will create lots of opportunities.”

Proctor admits concern at all the money coming into the sector from New York. “No one knows how they will behave,” he muses, adding, “This will add to an already uncertain market.”

Tiger, by and large, has been very savvy at its market timings in what ever sector it has entered – with the possible exception of tankers, something Proctor admits.

“We sold a bunch of VLCCs to Greek shipowners last year – the timing was off,” he concedes, discussing the decision to offload the vessels.

Nevertheless, Proctor thinks that boat has now sailed; investment opportunities lie elsewhere.

“We think tankers are very fully valued, we will not be investing here apart from in stainless steel chemical tankers,” the UK national says.

Greathorse Chemical is the group’s tanker vehicle at present – it boasts a fleet of 12 ships, and Proctor says the company will add to that, but only on a selective basis.

NEED TO KNOW

NEED TO KNOW

Tiger Group Investments The Hong Kong-based investment arm behind names such as Seaspan, Greathorse Shipping, POSH Terasea and GC Industrial Investments.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Worst is over for shipping A heavyweight shipping economist tells Katherine Si we should not be so pessimistic about current market conditions

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whether it is among lines, ports or yards is a trend that will continue, Liu says.

“The Chinese ports are likely to be integrated into bigger port groups and have some regional features, such as a Yangtze river port group, and a Bohai Bay port group,” Liu says.

Liu has one final piece of advice for the myriad private Chinese shipping lines. He urges them to list on the stock market to improve their operations and strengthen their footprint.

he World Economic Research Institute is part of Dalian Maritime University, and in Professor Liu Bin, the institute can boast one of Asia’s foremost shipping economists.

Liu, in good news for readers, reckons shipping is in a firm recovery mode; the bottom has been hit.

Overcapacity still exists, he concedes, but is a fraction of what it was in 2008. Moreover, the bad debts accrued by shipping companies have receded.

Just as important for Liu is an increasing détente reached between shippers and shipowners.

“The newbuilding competition between shippers and owners is not intense anymore,” Liu says. “Some of them have started to look for cooperation opportunities such as Vale and Cosco. It is a big change for the relationship between shipper and owner.”

Liu even reckons the dry bulk market is not as bad as the Baltic Dry Index reflects.

Volumes are increasing, while operating costs are low so dry bulk can be profitable,

he insists.

Liu’s past includes stints at steel firms. He is also an executive manager of the Liaoning provincial government economic reform committee.

For tankers, Liu believes the second half of the year will see China import far more oil than in the first six months, which could help drive rates further north.

Low shipbuilding prices have seen owners upgrading and optimising their fleets at very good prices, Liu observes.

Consolidation in every facet of shipping,

The newbuilding competition between shippers and owners is not intense anymore. Some of them have started to look for cooperation opportunities such as Vale and Cosco. It is a big change for the relationship between shipper and owner

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

World Economic Research Institute The World Economic Research Institute is part of Dalian Maritime University, one of the largest maritime tertiary institutions in the world and the only one in China to be funded by the central government.

m ime-ceo.co www.marit O 2015 ISSUE TW

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Sinoship Summer 2015

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Dark times The nation’s recyclers are mired in red ink, writes Katherine Si

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he ship recycling industry in China still faces dangers this year, Xie Dehua, president of the China National Ship Recylcing Association, warns SinoShip.

The Chinese shipbreaking yards usually scrap the ships cheaper with higher costs than its competitors in the Asia region.

Currently, the ship scrap taxes are high in China, which means the ship recyclers’ days are very harsh at the moment.

Last year, China roughly scrapped 251 ships, totalling 1.93m gt, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, including 1.08m gt of domestic ships, an increase of 111.8%, and 850,000 gt of imported ships, a drop of 57.2%.

“As the global economy is not rosy, the internal demands of China is weak too, the scrapped steel price in China is really low at

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the moment, and the depression will continue this year,” Xie admits.

Xie says, “The profit space will be squeezed tighter.” Yards’ utilisation rates are plummeting.

Nevertheless, looking long term Xie says the national goal is to pursue green ship recycling even if that means years of not being profitable.

Financial support from the banks is increasingly difficult for these yards, and since none of them are publicly listed alternative sources of funding are hard to come by.

Xie reckons Beijing’s ship scrapping subsidy, which has been in place for nearly three years, is not helping the yards.

Owners get money, yards get work but with no good return, he claims.

“It is a fact that we get orders, but we can hardly make money from them,” a spokesperson from the leading ship recycling yard in China, Changjiang Shipbreaking Yard says. “The subsidies are sent to the owners, we can not get part of it.”

“The ship recycling industry in China has no market price,” bemoans Zhu Jiaobao, general manager of Zhoushan ChangHong Metal Resources Recycling Company “The investment in the green operations and the taxes both lift up the costs of the shipbreaking yards. In addition, the downstream market is not pleasant, there’s too much

The profit space will be squeezed tighter

Ship Recycling ■ ■ ■

The cash-buyers viewpoint Beijing’s decision to extend its ship scrap subsidy programme through to 2017 will give local yards some urgent breathing space, suggests Rakesh Khetan, ceo of Singaporebased Wirana.

“The Chinese ship recycling market may have enough supply of local recycling tonnage at least until the incentive lasts,” he says.

China is doing relatively better due to subsidies granted by the government, agrees Dr Anil Sharma, the ceo of

EU aids green push

scrapped steel for sale and the whole industry is suffering losses.”

The ship recycling association is currently suggesting to ease the high tax situation of the shipbreaking yards.

Profits may not be the only concern of the Chinese ship recycling yards, the whole industry is also facing a great pressure to ensure safe and green operations during the shipbreaking.

New regulations on safe production and environment protection across all recycling industries in the People’s Republic released earlier this year are forcing the yards to dismantle the vessels more carefully.

Xie has asked his association’s members to take the updated regulations as an opportunity to improve their safety standards and working processes.

The European Union is helping China’s ship recycling sector become greener. Austria’s Institute of Waste Management (ABF-BOKU) and the China Association of Resource Comprehensive Utilization (CARCU) have jointly launched an EU-China Environmental Sustainability Programme project focused on the ship recycling industry in China, which will be completed by July 31 next year.

According to Roland Ramusch from ABF-BOKU, the Chinese ship recycling market is facing difficult times at the moment as it has to compete with countries like Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, who have less strict regulations concerning the protection of workers and the environment.

However, the pressure on shipowners is growing as more people are aware of the negative effects that ship recycling has on workers and the environment if the beaching method is used. This increased public pressure, together with the implementation of the EU Ship Recycling Regulation, will push more shipowners to seek alternatives, something that is China is well placed to profit.

“Chinese yards have the advantage that they have long-time experience with ship recycling using the pier method, which is an advantage when applying for the EU list of certified ship recycling facilities,” says Ramusch.

However, they have to compete with

Dubai-based GMS, the world’s largest cash buyer of ships for recycling. Chinese vessel owners receive almost RMB740 per gross ton in rebates if they recycle the vessel in China. If sellers also invest in newbuilding vessels at a Chinese yard, they are able to double the discount and as it gets passed on, it helps the ship recyclers.

“However,” Sharma adds, “despite such measures, traders in our China office who speak to recyclers on a regular basis say that several yards are running below optimum capacity, and quite a few are still not profitable.”

other countries, that offer higher prices for end-of-life ships, thus in order to be competitive, they will need to prove that they can guarantee an environmentally sound ship recycling, covering all aspects from the moment the ship arrives at the recycling yard to the final disposal of both hazardous and non-hazardous wastes.

It is important to focus on procedures and documentation, especially to fulfill downstream waste management aspects as set out by the EU, Ramusch emphasises.

In terms of equipment and workers’ safety, Chinese ship recycling yards are already very advanced. One of the crucial points for Chinese ship recycling yards is the issue of transparent waste management. The EU requires ship recycling yards to document thoroughly types, amounts and destination of all wastes.

Nevertheless, the pressure to recycle in a green manner is still not serious enough against the financial lure of South Asia at present.

“Whereas a handful of European shipping companies may be pressurised and somehow obliged by the NGO activists to send their ships to China, this is not sustainable for the bulk of the international shipping industry. as the moment more ships make their way to China, the already depressed scrap steel prices there would totally collapse,” says Dr Nikos Mikelis, non-executive director of GMS, the world’s largest cash buyer of ships for recycling.

Still with the EU getting ever nearer to banning EU-flagged ships from being beached, China’s time is getting close.

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Crewing ■ ■ ■

What it takes to ably steer a ship from point A to point B Turloch Mooney reports from Hong Kong’s Wah Kwong headquarters on the results of a pilot training program to address mental wellbeing among crews

A

newly developed training program for senior seafarers to promote awareness and understanding of mental wellbeing among crews has been trialled in Hong Kong by shipowner Wah Kwong.

The goal of the program is to reduce the risk of mental health issues and their consequences on vessels.

“Long hours, limited social interaction and separation from shore-based family and friends can lead to stress and the risk of mental health problems such as adjustment disorder and depression” says psychiatrist Dr Wong Chung Hin Willy, who developed the content of the program.

Wah Kwong operates a fleet of 27 dry bulk vessels, tankers and LPG carriers, which it plans to expand to 40 by 2017. The firm set up a seafarer training school in Qingdao, Shandong province, training 100 seafarers per year.

“The primary goal of the program is to increase the awareness and understanding of themselves,” says Wong.

Several factors in modern crew life are thought to potentially contribute to mental health issues while at sea. With crew numbers on vessels becoming smaller, limited opportunity for social interaction is one of the most important.

“In the old days we used to play cards, mess together, and so on. There was a lot of contact between crew. There is less contact nowadays because people tend to go directly to their cabins when not working,” says one senior Wah Kwong officer.

It is thought that social isolation on vessels could be on the rise as shipowners provide more internet access to seafarers. There are also some concerns over the effect of increased access to social media on vessels, which potentially allows seafarers to discover upsetting news from families and friends while at sea while leaving them

powerless to take any action.

“It really is a double-edged sword,” said Tim Huxley, CEO of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport on a recent RTHK Peaks and Troughs radio program. “Whilst connectivity and being in touch with loved ones and friends sounds a great thing, if you do have family problem and you learn about it while you’re at sea there is not a lot you can do about it aside from worry”.

In one recent tragic incident it was revealed that a crewmember on another shipping company’s vessel committed suicide after an extended argument on Facebook.

Besides the human cost of mental health issues, there is also a significant financial cost in terms of disruption to vessel schedules and seafarers abandoning their careers.

The program has several distinct modules including the introduction of the concept of mental wellness to senior officers; examination of common issues with a particular focus on crews in Asia and China; and ‘psychological first aid’ to equip senior offices with enough basic knowledge to deal with emergency issues when there

is no easy access to medical facilities or advice. A number of case studies have been developed to demonstrate how to deal with specific situations.

“The captain needs to be able to assess the gravity of different situations and decide the best course of action,” says Wong.

The Wah Kwong program comes at a time of rising awareness of the need to address work place health in the shipping industry. Most notable has been the ‘Wellness at Sea’ initiative by the Sailors’ Society.

“Problems such as loneliness and separation from friends and family lead to many seafarers abandoning a seagoing career,” says Huxley. “If we can identify these problems early and empower masters and senior officers to deal with them as they arise, we have a much better chance of solving this problem.

“Wellness at Sea is not looking to add the role of the parish priest to the established skill sets of our captains, but instead to support crew retention and show commitment to our colleagues at sea on whom we depend for so much.”

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Demographic debate SinoShip gathers three shipmanagers together to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese seafarers What are the best characteristics of Chinese crews?

The average age profile of Chinese crew is younger than the ages of Indian and Filipino crews which is getting higher, points out Benny Lee, the East Asian regional manpower director for V.Ships.

Lee reckons the basic educational standard of Chinese crew is on average at a high level.

Officers from China are generally well educated and motivated, thus there is no need to exercise permanent control or always show them what and how should

be done, observes Sergey Popravko, managing director of Cyprus-based Unicom Management Services. In general salaries of Chinese officers and ratings are less then salaries of Filipino or Indian seafarers, making Chinese seafarers competitive in the global market, Popravko says.

“They are dutiful with great respect to authority, eager learners who are quick to grasp what is taught, clear-headed individuals and especially good at work that requires good discipline such as machinery maintenance,” claims Aaron Ruan, managing director of Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (China).

Many Chinese seafarers don’t have an innate sense of safety or responsibility

What are the worst characteristics?

“Many Chinese seafarers don’t have an innate sense of safety or responsibility,” says V.Ships’ Lee. He puts part of this down to Beijing’s one child policy where children have become very insulated and have not grown up learning by their mistakes.

“Although taught, and many pick up their training quickly, trainees haven’t had the opportunity to learn to risk assess themselves,” he adds.

For Unicom’s Popravko and Ruan from Bernhard Schulte picks up on the age-old issue of English competency as a key weakness still.

Also Ruan observes Chinese seafarers’ limited exposure outside the Chinese context also causes a strain in their understanding of cultural differences and common practices.

Are you finding as the nation gets richer, you are having to source crews from different areas, such as inland provinces?

“It is no surprise that a lucrative salary drawn as a seafarer attracts a large pool of candidates from inland provinces, which tends to house some of the poorest of the nation,” says Bernhard Schulte’s Ruan.

Recruitment used to be done in cities near to the coast. Now this pool of potential staff have better job options and are not joining the maritime sector.

Recruitment is now taking place inland in western China in cities up to three or four hours inland by plane, points out V.Ships’ Lee. Graduates are being attracted from schools and collages by recruitment networks.

Is it tricky - compared say to Filipinos or Indians - to get Chinese ratings to stay the course to become officer material?

Most Chinese officers are trained as cadets onboard and then they continue their 24

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Crewing ■ ■ ■ career growth in officer positions, reckons Unicom’s Popravko. Cases of reeducation to officers from ratings are not so common, he adds.

V.Ships’ Lee takes issue with Popravko’s views here. “It is very difficult to develop Chinese ratings to officers,” he says, “as the present practice puts new entrants into two tiers - youngsters with lower education can only start as ratings. The system makes it very difficult for them to develop themselves to officers in their career path.

This shortens the time youngsters stay in the industry.”

Unless a graduate is well educated they are less likely to develop to officer class and the better educated have many better opportunities open to them, Lee says.

“They are not interested in ratings jobs,” he stresses.

“In a highly competitive industry, crew retention and loyalty building are the two most pressing issues for any shipmanager,” notes Bernhard Schulte’s Ruan. His company has recently launched a seafarer career development programme called ‘Seafarers coming Ashore’. Aimed at second and third nautical and engineering officers, the programme offers a fast-track career development similar to management trainee programmes. Aged around mid-20s, with at least two to three years of sailing experience, this particular profile of seafarers sees the most turnover amongst the seafarer population. Coincidentally, it is also typical of this demographic to begin settling in life, as such alongside a lucrative career, a clear long-term advancement and financial promise will be highly attractive for these individuals.

Price-wise, how do Chinese seafarers compare to Filipinos or Indians?

Although wages have picked up fast in recent years, Chinese seafarers are approximately 10% cheaper than Indians and Filipinos, notes Lee from V.Ships. However, the gap is closing and they are no longer enjoying wage competitiveness, he warns.

This is because of the cost of social welfare contributions and insurance, which is a major cost factor for employers. China has one of the highest social contributions in the world.

They are still cheaper however, says Unicom’s Popravko, who notes that during the last 25 years the number of Chinese officers and ratings has quintupled.

Yes, they are still competitive with both Filipino and Indian crew wages, concurs

Chinese seafarers are approximately 10% cheaper than Indians and Filipinos Ruan from Bernhard Schulte, however he warns wage inflation with Chinese crew is inevitable due to economic and crew sourcing reasons.

What more could Beijing do to help promote the rise of Chinese seafarers on international deepsea ships?

The vast majority of Chinese seafarers are working on Chinese ships. This is largely down to the present education system, says Ruan.

“The current education system possesses career limiting options for Chinese seafarers, particularly at the level of ratings,” he says. “Consequently, this creates a barrier for Chinese national ratings to further develop into officers. The current system, which places emphasis on certification, needs to be further revised to focus on training seafarers for the purpose of their roles so as to better equip them for the actual challenges of the role. This will place them at competitive levels against their counterparts from the Philippines or India.”

A second area for improvement suggested by both Ruan and Lee is related to personal income tax for Chinese seafarers.

Earlier this year, one of the budget proposals within the Indian parliament presented a tax exemption for Indian seafarers serving onboard Indian-flagged ships. If passed, this proposal will come in addition to the already placed income tax exemption for

Indian crew who work onboard international waters for 182 days or more within a financial year. In the Philippines, crew serving on international waters, have for long enjoyed tax exemptions.

“Aligning the welfare and tax reliefs of Chinese crew to meet international practices, will increase seafarer’s income making the job much more attractive and consequently mitigate the shortage of seafarers,” Ruan says.

However, Lee cautions that Beijing making these changes is very unlikely. Beijing has to generate 12m new jobs each year in the country for new graduates, he points out. The seagoing career is only a very small sector – there are approximately 40,000 seafarers on foreign flagged ships which is a tiny percentage. “It is unlikely due to the small size of the sector that there will be any government dispensations,” Lee says.

A third area that could be improved for Ruan, the Bernhard Schulte executive, focuses on standardising and regulating crew recruitment practices across the country.

Unicom’s Popravko suggests greater maritime English training is still an urgent priority.

“Opening the crewing market to foreign ship owners could also vastly improve Chinese crew pool and quality on an international front,” concludes Ruan.

According to the China National Association of Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI), the ship repair sector has growing demand this year as the vessels delivered during the last newbuilding binge peaked in 2010 and are thus due for a drydocking.

Moreover, owners are likely to inspect their vessels earlier as the ballast water convention comes into effect soon.

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■ ■ ■ HUBS: SHANGHAI

Bigger, but still not better The city’s free trade zone has quadrupled in size, but better policies are needed to make it attractive In April, Shanghai Municipal government announced that the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) has entered into a new development stage under a massive expansion plan. Launched in 2013, the Shanghai FTZ was hailed as a testbed for bold reforms aimed at creating a more marketdriven economy.

The total area of the Shanghai FTZ has been increased from the original 28.78 sq km to 120.72 sq km, covering new areas including the Jinqiao Development Zone, Lujiazui Financial District, and Zhangjiang High-tech Zone.

According to Sun Jiwei, deputy director of the Shanghai FTZ Administration, the FTZ administration and Shanghai Pudong New Area People's Government will be merged to manage the FTZ, an innovation in government functions that will be helpful in coordinating resources.

The total number of enterprises in the expanded FTZ has reached more than 73,900 including some 16,300 foreign companies.

"The FTZ will provide a better environment for Shanghai Port to compete with its counterparts on the international stage," reckons Shi Zhengwei, director of the shipping development department at the Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission (SMTC).

"Since the shipping business is a quite open industry, its development needs an internationally compatible environment," Shi adds.

Financial reform has been a major highlight of the Shanghai 26

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FTZ. With the inclusion of Lujiazui, Shanghai's financial and trading center, the enlarged FTZ has now effectively incorporated most of China's existing financial institutions.

the FTZ. Zhou says free trade account services will be available as soon as the central bank gives him the green light.

China is also considering

The CFO of ZPMC, a port machinery manufacturer and FTZ resident, Wang Jue, says the company is now able to open a free trade account and apply for offshore financing at a much lower rate, and the company is expected to save financing cost by around 10%.

The free trade account allows companies to move renminbi and other foreign currencies in and out of China for capital account transactions, which lets them raise money overseas and bring the funds back to China for investment, something that has been frustratingly impossible in the past across the People’s Republic.

Currently the renminbi has yet to be fully convertible in the zone, although the authorities have taken steps to ease controls on cross-border capital flows between overseas accounts and those based in

launching a trial scheme that would allow Chinese individuals in the Shanghai FTZ to invest in overseas markets directly for the first time. The programme, known as the Qualified Domestic Individual Investor Programme, or QDII2, is part of measures jointly proposed by the Shanghai government, the central bank and regulators to promote capital account convertibility and international use of the Chinese currency.

Currently Shanghai FTZ is working on a 51-point financial reform proposal that seeks to boost openness and encourage innovation.

Nevertheless, Zhen Hong, secretary general of the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, reckons that the shipping policies in the FTZ still need to be improved.

“Although the government has introduced a number of favourable policies for the shipping companies in the FTZ, including allowing the operation of solely foreign-owned shipmanagement companies and foreign-controlled joint ventures to operate international shipping businesses, we haven’t seen much improvement of such businesses in the FTZ, mostly due to lack of supporting measures,” Zhen says.

For instance, Zhen points out that solely foreign-owned shipmanagement companies in the FTZ are still not allowed to manage China-flagged ships and participate in the Chinese seafarer market.

According to Zhen, currently there are only six shippingrelated favourable policies in the FTZ, but he reveals that more favourable policies in the sector will be released by the central government this year.

Liu Shengjun, deputy executive director of the CEIBS Lujiazui International Finance Research Center, expresses the same concerns.

"Some enterprises within the FTZ don't feel they have benefitted that much from it as some policies haven't been well implemented. The government still has room to improve the transparency of its governance of the zone, and should be more determined in implementing policies," Liu warns.

"People should not have excessive expectations for the FTZ. It's understandable that the government is cautious about financial innovations within the zone, as they might involve more risks," Liu concludes.

HUBS: TAIPEI ■ ■ ■

The quest for LNG The island is reaching far and wide for more gas, writes Katherine Si Taiwan, a small island with a big population population, has always lacked its own energy resources. Its population density is the second highest in the world for countries with populations in excess of 10m. The island has very limited domestic oil and natural gas production and has been and will continue to rely heavily on LNG imports to meet the growing energy consumption demands and its stated goal of becoming a low-carbon economy.

The state-owned Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC) is the leader and controller of LNG imports in Taiwan.

“For so many years, and now, we are still the sole LNG importer of the island. We are short of energy resources which is obvious, thus making us have to have a stable import business of LNG,”an official from the purchasing department of natural gas at CPC tells SinoShip.

“We have our own LNG transport vessels and cooperation with partners to ship LNG. We need it and we run the business stably,” the official adds.

Currently, CPC operates two LNG import terminals at Yung-An and Taichung which commenced operations in 1990 and 2009 respectively. The two terminals have a combined send out capacity of 1.7 bn cu ft per day. The company is planning to build a third terminal in northern Taiwan, which “might take several years to complete the details” a spokesperson from the communication department of CPC tells SinoShip.

“As the island is promoting LNG-powered electricity, we believe the import of LNG will

keep increasing in the future,” the spokesperson continues.

Power generation accounts for more than 80% of LNG use in Taiwan. Overall LNG demand is projected to reach 12m tonnes in 2015, 15m in 2020, 17m in 2025 and 18m in 2030.

is cooperating with mainland state-owned offshore industry player, China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), to drill a well in deep waters off the island’s southwest coast, at a block in the Taiwan Strait.

The two companies initially

Taiwan’s population density is the second highest in the world for countries with populations in excess of 10m Providing a wrinkle to these projections is news that the construction of two new power plants located in New Taipei City’s Linkou District and Talin in Kaohsiung’s Siaogang District have been delayed, their start ups next year as planned now unlikely.

The island’s energy major is now looking at sourcing oil and gas from new avenues. CPC

agreed on a four-year developing cooperation under a production sharing contract for the 1.55m ha Taichao Block as early as 2002.

“Currently, we are working on more development activities and contracts with CNOOC which is expected to be cleared soon,” Zheng Yongfeng, an official from CPC’s marine department, tells SinoShip.

“Considering both the commercial benefits and our own energy shortage, our company will look for more oil and gas exploration opportunities,” Zheng says.

China and Taiwan have so far signed and discussed three contracts for the Taichao, Taiyang and Nanjihtao basins, Wang Jiaxiang, vice president of CNOOC, said earlier this year.

“There will be more communication between Taiwan and China in the future, with areas for collaboration extending from upstream exploration activity in the Taiwan Strait to exploration activities abroad, LNG procurement and technology collaboration and so on,” Wang said.

CPC plans to further expand its operations globally with the set up of offices in Dubai and Qatar by the end of this year.

The new offices will take care of crude and LNG procurement.

Sinoship Summer 2015

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HUBS: HONG KONG ■ ■ ■

Forget the port Let’s quit discussing plummeting box throughput figures and look at the bigger picture, urges Sam Chambers

Column inches have been spent in feet on the decline of Hong Kong’s container port.

Twelve consecutive months of declining growth recorded – so bad, in fact that the city is likely to relinquish fourth spot in the boxport rankings to Ningbo this year.

However, for me, this is not news. From a maritime hub perspective, I’d pick out something more troubling for Hong Kong’s future as an international shipping centre, something not necessarily dwelled on by others.

The decision in May by Chinese state-owned giants Cosco and China Shipping to form their joint venture – China Ore Shipping – to control a series of very large ore carriers bought from Brazilian miner Vale. This should have raised as much alarm bells as the terminal decline over in Kwai Chung.

For much of the past decade Hong Kong ruled the roost when it came to iron

ore fixtures, arguably the world’s most powerful centre for capesizes. Similarly, it was the preeminent port of call for mainland owners looking for a second home. While others migrated elsewhere, Hong Kong’s shipping stock swelled from an influx of Chinese owners keen to do business in the city’s laissez-faire business environment. The fact that China Ore Shipping – and a whole swathe of other Chinese owners – have decided lately to set up shop in Singapore should be a major cause for concern.

It’s all about mindset – and the time has come for Hong Kong to focus as a shipping services city, not a port-centric one.

The odds are simply stacked against Hong Kong when it

comes to port economics – it is not on the doorstep of the factories, while its terminals are expensive and cramped. It is yesterday’s story – time to move on.

However, the city is by no means dead as a shipping hub.

The register continues to fly high, among the top five in the world, and the city’s shipping lawyers and insurers are clearly busy.

The problem is the powers that be – though professing an affection for maritime not seen since reunification – are failing to grasp the bigger picture. If Hong Kong is to prosper it needs to look higher up shipping’s food chain, and for the government to really get involved. The city’s hard

The odds are stacked against Hong Kong when it comes to port economics

and soft infrastructure is fine.

What isn’t is its attractiveness for the biggest conglomerates in the world to set up shop here.

Singapore has won hands down because of its incentives scheme not to shipping firms (generous as they are), but to the shippers – the Cargills, BHPs of this world. For Hong Kong to claw back business it needs to make a super attractive offer to the heads of shipping’s food chain, the charterers, to choose the former British colony as home. Until this happens the city will sadly fade in maritime relevance.

Hong Kong need look no further than Kaohsiung – a 90-minute flight away for the perils of maritime hubris. Just over a decade ago it could claim to be a thriving maritime hub with the world’s third largest container port – it no longer ranks in the top ten, and without any real focus on shipping services it has disappeared from view.

Sinoship Summer 2015

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■ ■ ■ BOOKS

Learning to live together Paul French looks at Sino-US ties

The world has changed in the first 15 years of the 21st century. China has risen; America has been perceived to have stumbled somewhat. In reality the 20th century was not all American and similarly the 21st won’t be, despite some predictions, all Chinese. Ultimately the two nations will have to learn to live together, facing each other across the Pacific and with a myriad of maritime concerns, regional issues and partners and trade. A number of new books look at this new, sometimes uneasy, sometimes tangential relationship.

Gordon Chang’s Fateful Ties: America’s Preoccupation with China is perhaps a good starting point. Chang, working within various American think 30

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tanks, has a somewhat uneasy relationship with China – he famously predicted its coming collapse in his book of the same name published in 2003. That didn’t happen. His new book looks at America’s long relationship with China back to first contact and the trading ships of the 19th century. Chang’s right – America has long been fascinated with the Middle Kingdom – as a potentially vast market, a massive enemy, a possible ally in the Cold War and now

an economic rival. However, a similar book could be written arguing that China has long been fascinated by America – republican, economically successful, militarily strong.

Chang sees the relationship as uneasy but that those historical ties of mutual fascination could prove to be what binds the two continental economies together this century.

Henry Paulson’s book, Dealing With China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic

America has long been fascinated with the Middle Kingdom as a potentially vast market and now an economic rival

Superpower, is more detailed in terms of policy conflicts and so-called ‘hot button’ issues.

This is as might be expected from a former head of Goldman Sachs and Treasury Secretary.

Paulson’s account is highly anecdotal and, it has to be said, anecdotes are useful when coming from someone who has had the access Paulson has. Part how-to-do business book, part guide to diplomacy in China, part explanation of China’s rise, Dealing with China is highly useful. A criticism might be that Paulson’s intimate dealings with Beijing are somewhat dated now in the era of Xi Jinping, anti-corruption and the ‘China Dream’, but he still remains one of the highest level interlocutors with Beijing since Kissinger.

Some authors do see problems that could lead to conflict.

Ted Galen Carpenter’s America’s Coming War with China posits the scenario that the conflict point will be Taiwan. Galen Carpenter sees Taiwan (backed by the US) and mainland China on a collision course, and unless something dramatic changes, an armed conflict is virtually inevitable within a decade. He offers remedies but many will argue that he overstates the case as Beijing learns to live with a vibrant Taipei and vice versa. From a different perspective Lyle J. Goldstein's Meeting China Halfway offers points on how Washington and Beijing could diffuse tensions and come to see their reciprocal need for each other in this new century.

Goldstein suggests a ‘cooperation spiral’ rather than a downward spiral of conflict. As ever with history – time will tell.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Shipping regulation in uncharted waters No clear solution for handling carbon emissions is on the table to the frustration of many, writes Neville Smith

Never again, seems to be the consensus industry view on the Ballast Water Management (BWM) Convention and the revision of Marpol Annex VI. The trouble is that shipping seems as divided as ever about what to do with the next big challenge: carbon.

Carbon isn’t even a new agenda item for the MEPC, but the increasing noise over the issue is threatening to turn an admittedly huge challenge into something that sees a third set of unpopular rules added to the statutes.

Managing CO2 emissions might not present the same risk of technology/solution mismatch as did the BWM Convention, but it has the potential to ratchet up costs for owners and shippers at a time when the costs of low sulphur shipping have not yet been fully calculated.

Yet again there is unilateral action by the EU, which through its MRV programme is trying

to force the pace. The IMO’s own work to capture data on the global fleet has not yet got going but its GHG studies have at least begun to establish data baselines.

Shipping might not fear an Emissions Trading Scheme for shipping, given the failure of the EU’s previous attempts, but the threat of some kind of carbon tax within its waters is enough to concern owners.

Much closer is the Paris climate conference later this year, though again, shipping might take cynical comfort in the fact that since Kyoto, these have produced plenty of hot air but little by the way of firm commit-

against any kind of marketbased mechanism to pay for carbon and will likely do so again this week. But they now have new allies, or at least enemies of their enemies.

The Marshall Islands – the world’s third biggest flag state – went a bit rogue recently and called for the setting of a new global target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, effectively suggesting it should join the international climate negotiations.

That may seem counter-intuitive and even unhelpful, but the flag clearly feels the time for leaving IMO to get on with it, is over.

The costs of low sulphur shipping have not yet been fully calculated ments to cut emissions.

The developing nations not bound by Kyoto have campaigned assiduously at IMO

Shipowners and their associations remain largely opposed to MBMs but admit that they have little by way of concrete

alternatives that would build on the progress made by the EEDI and SEEMP. This might also suggest that owners have more pressing issues to worry about than carbon emissions and it could also be that in the developed world, the issues of ‘global warming’ or ‘climate change’ are less on voters’ minds than they were.

However hard the industry wishes though, carbon isn’t going away. It won’t happen at this MEPC, but there is a need for an industry-wide vision on shipping’s role in carbon emissions, which endorses the IMO as primary regulator and seeks to build consensus that shipping’s disparate interests can work with.

Pitching this as a solution that comes from within the industry, that is not dependant on blue-sky technology that has been subject to cost/benefit analysis might be a good start in avoiding a repeat of the mistakes in our very recent past.

Sinoship Summer 2015

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OPINION ■ ■ ■

Paper, paper, everywhere In the age of the internet, Andrew Craig-Bennett wonders why ships have to carry so many outdated certificates What is the point of issuing the master of a ship with bits of paper and requiring him to show them to people who turn up onboard and insist on their right to look at them?

The correct answer is, “To enrich corrupt port officials”.

I know a ship, which recently put into a Russian port for bunkers; the agent came on board and insisted that he needed to take the folder with the trading certificates ashore with him.

Soon afterwards two gentlemen from Port State Control turned up and asked for the certificates, and on being told where they were – ashore with the agent – imposed a fine of $500.

There is only one sensible place for a ship’s trading certificates, and that is on the internet. If governments can keep their motor vehicle tax records on the internet, surely the same can be done for merchant ships?

If the trading certificates are on the internet, national authorities, port officials, even charterers and underwriters can look them up when they first have to think about the ship rather than waiting until a ship arrives in port.

If the IMO cannot be trusted to keep a website up to date, no doubt IACS can do so, since most of the bits of paper are issued by its members.

This leads me to the most useless bit of paper yet devised by the IMO; the Nairobi Convention Wreck Removal Certificate, required as of February 14 this year. Like the other ‘evidence of financial responsibility’ certificates, this

is issued by the ship’s flag state, against a fee and a ‘blue card’ (in reality, a PDF) issued by the ship’s P&I Club.

So why do we call a PDF, an electronic document, which is not blue, a ‘blue card’? Nobody knows. Some people trace an analogy with the US permanent residence certificate, which was green when it first appeared in 1946, while some people think it was because the paper used by early computer printers was sometimes blue. At all events, this system has been with us since the Civil Liability Convention of 1969, which created a system for paying for oil pollution from tankers which

was indeed a wonderful thing in its day, and which created the system.

1969 was 46 years ago. The Vietnam War was at its height, the Beatles were still making records… and the IMO has not come up with a better system, but have just multiplied the old one with Bunker Convention Certificates, Athens Convention Certificates and now Wreck Removal Certificates.

Talking of certificates, the UK Chief Inspector of Marine Accidents, Captain Steve Clinch, says that it would not be a bad idea if anyone who holds a certificate of competency as officer in charge of a navigational

If governments can keep their motor vehicle tax records on the internet, surely the same can be done for merchant ships?

watch should be required to undergo a practical exam in a simulator once every five years, to make sure that they are up to speed with the Collision Regulations. Can anyone think of a good reason why this should not be done?

For the avoidance of doubt, may I say that the reason given for not requiring oral examinations as a part of STCW, namely that, in many nations, the candidate will slip a wad of notes to the examiner, is not a ‘good reason’. Like many things in merchant shipping, that is a bad reason.

Bureaucratic inertia, as demonstrated by the IMO sticking with a 46-year-old idea, which was elegant when mainframe computers had less power than your phone has today, is always a bad reason.

Is there intelligent life at the IMO? There is very little evidence for it.

Sinoship Summer 2015

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■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

PHOTO FINISH ■ ■ ■ STORM RISING Gloom dominates Hong Kong's Victoria Harbour 风暴来临 天色阴沉 香港维多利亚港 ©

Sam Chambers

Bringing maritime media out of the dark ages

Does your Chinese marketing for 2015 make the cut? www.sinoshipnews.com Sinoship 2014.indd 1

27/1/14 11:59 pm

三用工作船专栏 拆船业亏损 2015年夏季刊

m 日 在 .co 每 更新 247 文 ash 中 .spl w ww

为什么船厂没有倒闭

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中国船员的优势与劣势

香港将忘记 港口业？

福建崛起 独家访问快速兴起的省级航运巨头总裁

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目录 ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 1 编者语 4 经济 7 班轮 9 船厂 11 离岸 12 金融 13 商品 14 物流

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 15 杨锦昌 16 朱重庆 17 Julian Proctor 18 刘斌

■ ■ ■ 专题 19 船员 22 拆船

债务资本市场已经有效地 填补了银行留出的空白

12

—Alan Hatton, FSL Trust ceo

15

福建省海运集团将成为区 域经济发展的支柱 — 杨锦昌 福建省海运集团总经理

我们认为大船的趋势将会 继续

17

— Julian Proctor,Tiger Group Investments总经理

■ ■ ■ 枢纽 24 上海 25 台北 26 香港

■ ■ ■ 评论 27 书籍

中国的港口很可能被整合成为更 大的港口集团 — 刘斌 世界经济研究所所长

18

■ ■ ■ 意见 28 Neville Smith 29 A ndrew Craig-Bennett

利润空间更小 — 谢德华 中国拆船协会会长

22

Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

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编者语 ■ ■ ■

www.sinoshipnews.com ASM刊物 编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com 首席通讯记者 司湘

katherine@asiashippingmedia.com 通讯记者 姜浩

jason@asiashippingmedia.com 北京 上海 香港 大连 广州 台北

Li Deng Bai Colin Shek Alfred Romann Mark Downing Wang Fanglei David Green

供稿人

Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh 摄影

André Eichman, Basil Pao 所有编辑资料请发送至sam@asiashippingmedia.com 或邮寄到中国大连中山区人民路9号701办公室， 邮编116001 商务主管 Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com 销售主管 Helen Ong helen@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip同时也在东京、首尔和奥斯陆设有广告 代理机构。欲获取当地代理联系信息请发送邮件 到grant@asiashippingmedia.com。 媒体信息可在www.asiashippingmedia.com下载。 所有商务资料请发送至grant@asiashippingmedia. com 或邮寄到Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd 30 Cecil Street, #19-08 Prudential Tower Singapore 049712 设计 Tigersoft Pte Ltd 印刷 香港雅联印刷有限公司 订阅 总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取SinoShip 期 刊。对于 所 有 其 他 公 司，订 阅 S i n o S h i p 2 014 年 4 期 需 要 收 费10 0 美 元 。订 阅 每 月 发 行 两 次 的 P D F 格 式 的 S i n o S h i p电子 新 闻（包 含 独 家 新 闻 、数 据 和 分 析）需 收 费5 0 0 美 元。订 阅 咨 询 请发 送 邮 件 到 su b s@ asiashippingmedia.com。 版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2014 为确保 本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努 力，但出版社 对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何 责任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不 得对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以 任何形式或方式传输。

中国增长放缓 影响世界航运业 对 我而 言，没有比今年八月一家三年前成 交价为6.31亿美元的澳大利亚煤矿以一美 元的价格出售更能体现商品价格戏剧性大 跌的事了。 所有商品价格骇人的下跌异常严重并且 十分突然以至于行业巨头们都大受挫折。 中国的经济放缓以及股市大跌，正在给航 运业带来苦果。 由于中国对于铁矿石以及煤矿等主要 原材料的需求降低，干散货市场的低迷前 景还将持续几年。今年上半年中国的铁矿 石进口总量为4.529亿吨，比去年同期缩水 0.9%。同时期煤矿进口更为惨淡，同比下降 37.5%。中国国内还在遭受干散货船队的运 力过剩问题。中国作为目前全世界主导的商 品购买国已经停滞，意味着萧条的日子还 将持续几年。过去12个月市场观察认为此 萧条将持续到2020年。 集装箱航运市场也将从中国的萧条中受 到影响。英国公司德鲁里预计八月中国集 装箱吞吐量将增长4.9%，比预期的5.8%稍 低。这0.9%的预期降低相当于190万标准 箱，虽然不是灾难性的，但是明显不会帮助 已经低迷的集装箱贸易恢复。 目前对我而言，唯一还有弹性的是中国 对石油的渴求。中国的石油进口达到了历 史最高值。我认为这种情况还将持续，尽 管整个航运市场低迷。对于国际船东唯一 的问题就是更多的石油将由中国本土船只 运送，外国公司将逐渐被排除在此市场之 外。 是我对中国目前的经济形式以及其对世 界航运业的影响太悲观了吗？当然作为评 论者，当熊比当牛容易。 我询问了SinoShip的专栏经济学家Paul French的想法，他总是给出一半一半的观 点 （气人的是它总是被证明的正确的）， 他认为我们应该从长远角度来看并保持冷

静。 “从长远看中国的股票市场波动，”Paul 告诉 我， “并且集中在远期机会。波动起 伏，但长期机会保持不变。” 我们拭目以待。

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

3

■ ■ ■ 经济

降温的矛盾 重归平衡的经济踏着不一样的节奏，Paul French 撰文

请走这边中国经济现已进入消费者驱动时代

当 前 中 国 经 济 存 在 一种 矛 盾。诸 多 国 际 压 力 和 部 分 国 内压 力迫使 北 京的 决 策 者 们 为中国火热的经济“降温”。 总的来说，中国已实现 这一目 标— —国有部门大大萎缩， 尽管按大多数全球标准来看仍 相当庞大，但已不复 20 年前的 样子，同时，私 有企 业现 撑起 80% 的就业岗位。大部分价格 由市场机制而不是中央政府的 命令决定；投资流向已发生变 化，正如北京所敦促和承诺的 那样，国内消费已取代出口外 流或投资流入，成为经济的驱 动因素。简而言之，中国已成功 恢复其经济平衡。 然而，这一重归平衡的结果 是，GDP 增长率从十年或更早 4

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以前的急速飙升回落。目前，中 国的 GDP 增长率维持在 7% 左 右，老一辈人或许还记得，这一 下降本应令经济崩盘。但经济 并没有崩盘，中国似乎能够适 应 7% 的增长率。 出现这一结果，一部分要归

功于工资的强 劲 增长 — — 而且目前仍在增长。2015 年第 一 季度的收 入与上年 同 期 相 比增长 8.1%，比 2014 年第一 季度的 8.6% 略低。至关重要 的是，从农村到城市的工厂和 建 筑 工 地寻求 工作的外 来 务

中国零售业销售额的增长 与去年同期相比增长 (%) 2012年3月

2012年12月 2013年9月

2014年6月

2015年3月 资料来源：CEIC

10 10.7 10.8 10.9 11

工人员的收入增幅从一年前的 10.1% 大幅上涨至 11.9%，这反 映出劳动力市场供不应求。就 业机会仍在增加。 这一工资增长现已渗入消费 型经济，零售业销售额的年增 长率接近 11%。人们购房置业 的热情依旧不减，这从家具销 售 额的 增 长 超 过 总体 零售业 增长，达到近 21% 可以窥见一 斑。零售业从实体店向网络转 移的速度迅速，自今年年初以 来，网上电子商务增长 40% 以 上。 但并非所有人都享受这一强 劲的增长速率，一些受到影响 的行业会影响到运输和物流。 三月，矿业的增长率仅有 1.4% ，这将对今 年余下月份的出境 商品总量产生 影响。然而，技 术设备制造商似乎仍然在寻找 订单— —三月，通讯设备出 货量增加了 12%，与 IT 和计算 机的出货量持平。这意味着中 国北方的形势并不像东部沿海 和南方地区那样一片大好，中 国北方是大多数商品、开采和 精炼企业及旧式国有行业的家 乡，而东部沿海和南方是大多 数高科技产品的聚集地。 出口 方 面，第 一 季 度 的 数 字并不理想— —三月，中国 的出口额与去年同期相比下降 15%（按美元计）。但这一巨大 的差异主要是受春节和月度波 动影响。中国的主要出口市场 并未表现出瓦解迹象，也没有 理由相信中国的出口竞争力突 然变得不堪一击。大多数分析 师预计，中国出口数字将在 第 二季度回升。

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中远集团和中国海运集团已经 开始计划整合运营，这个由中 央政府主导的合并可能最早在 2017年完成。两家巨头已经开 始组建一个改革小组来推动 中国航运业有史以来最大的 重组。

港口运营商巨头上海国际港务 集团 (SIPG) 斥资人民币 19.4 亿元（3.125 亿美元）收购亚洲 集装箱企业上海锦江航运的 多数股权。锦江航运聚焦于东 亚贸易，拥有 12 艘规格从 764 标准箱至 1,098 标准箱不等的 船只。

Fred Cheng 经营的 Shinyo International 总共斥资 3.26 亿美元购买 5 艘超大型油 轮。Shinyo 以 2.38 亿美元的交 易总价购买了 3 艘中国超大型 油轮。Cheng 以 4,400 万美元

的成本向 Nord Reederei 购买另 外两艘船。Cheng 是 20 世纪 90 年代颇有名气的船东，其经营 的金海洋集团 (Golden Ocean) 经历了一番大起大落。

中国外运长航集团最终放弃其 在中国外运长航集团凤凰有限 公司 (CSC Phoenix) 的股权。由 陈德顺控股的一家国内沿海船 运公司天津顺航海运有限公司 接管了这家船运公司，历经一 次痛苦的重组后，近几年，中国 外运长航集团凤凰有限公司船 队运力从 400 万载重吨缩减到 600,000 载重吨。

览海集团收购了散货船/化工 企业中海（海南）海盛船务股 份有限公司 (China Shipping Haisheng) 并立即着手重组。 览海集团是一家多领域集团， 业务领域涉及保险、房地产、能 源、医疗和基础设施开发。

中国的两家领先船运公司中远 集团和中国海运集团签署了一系 列巨型集装箱船合同。中远集 团欲购 9 艘船，外加四艘 20,000 标准箱的船只，中国海运集团 订购了 8 艘 13,500 标准箱的船 只。所有船只将在中国制造。

淡水河谷与中国的僵局正式打 破，中国接纳一系列超大矿砂 船。中远集团 (Cosco) 和中国海 运集团 (China Shipping) 的合资 企业中国矿运有限公司购买淡 水河谷公司的 4 艘 400,000 载 重吨散货船，另外 4 艘散货船 购自招商局。这些船只目前停 靠在中国。

重庆川江船务有限公司是长江 上运营的领先集装箱船运公司 之一，今年 7 月，其创始人以及 唯一的两名股东王跃文和任中 惠因公司负债累累而自杀，公司 目前正在寻找新的投资人拯救 该公司。

总部设在山东的多领域企业南 山集团目前正计划进入船东领 域以满足其发电设备的煤炭运 输需求。公司已经宣布其采购 大约 10 艘二手散货船的意向， 包括巴拿马型散货船、轻便极 限型散货船和灵便型散货船。

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合并而非关闭 Katherine Si 记述今年造船行业的抢座游戏 中 国 的 造 船行业目前正经历 衰退和重组阶段。在中央政府 的监管下，中国的造船企业正 在处于已经持续多年的重组环 境之中，它们自愿或被强制参与 重组。 全国造 船厂的亏损已经 上 升。今年第一季度，国内造船厂 接到新造船订单599万载重吨， 与上年同期相比下降 76.8%。 中国的 造 船 工业仍 然面 临 产能过剩问题，该行业的利用 率已经从2010年的75%下降到 2015年的60%。 业内大鱼吃小鱼的时代已经 来临，这种现象已经开始并将 在 未来几个月和几年加速，合 并在所难免。 船东感到烦恼的是，中国没 有降低造船厂产能，仅仅只是 降低造船厂数量。关闭造船厂 仍不多见。

一个曾经在中国造船行业非 常有名的企业正在改变公司名 称和核心业务，并开展重组， 应对其造船业务产生的不良业 绩。 中国的熔盛重工曾是中国最 大的私营造船厂，正在考虑 重 组并已经将其名称变更为中国 华荣能源公司，多样化公司业 务，进入能源领域。 前熔盛的债权银 行 计 划将 公司的所有造船资产在上海证 券交易所A股市场上市并增强 债权与股权置换，以处理与银 行相关的债务。该公司正与潜 在买家就交易细节展开谈判。 在2 012年和2 013年出现亏

损之后，华荣能源报告2014财 年出现77.5亿元人民币的净亏 损。 在新加坡上市的中国造船厂 扬子江船业有可能是熔盛的买 家。 扬 子江 船业 董 事长任元 林 最近表示： “政府、银行和熔盛 的多数股东都希望我们参与重 组，但是，我们能否涉足将依赖 于资产价格。” 华荣能源预计 很快 做出重 组决定。 “除了熔盛以外，我们对其 他企业都不感兴趣。”任董事 长继续表示。 同时，两家国有造船巨头中

船东感到烦恼的是，中国没有降 低造船厂产能，仅仅只是降低造船 厂数量

国船舶重工集团公司 (CSIC) 和 中国船舶工业集团公司 (CSSC) 也可能存在潜在的合并机会。 C S I C 和 C S S C 是 由中 央于 1999 年从同一集团公司分离而 成。两家公司的业务区域以长 江为界。 但 是，两 大 造 船 巨头 的 合 并仍不确定。CSIC 的发言人 刘振国表示，他并不清楚是否 有合并谈判，无法作出任何评 论。CSSC 的发言人目前也不能 提供任何信息。 两家造船巨头在最近几年交 换了高级管理人员，在市场内 产生了更多的合并猜测。 中国的另一私营造船厂舜天 船舶卷入与明德重工的极为困 难的重组，两家公司的金融状 况都很糟糕。 舜天船舶报告2014年净亏损 4.03亿元人民币（6490万美元） ，该造船厂将亏损归因于明德 重工重组产生的经营困难。如 果重组失败，该造船厂可能面 临29.4亿元人民币的损失。 位于舟山的浙江正和造船有 限公司是青岛正和航运的子公 司，由于经营困难，五月已经宣 布向舟山的法院申请对该造船 厂进行重组。 自2014年以来，正和造船一 直存在财政问题。该造船厂在 今年早期被纳入中央政府批准 的造船企业白名单内。 该 造船厂将在 未来三 至 五 个月向法院提交完整的重组计 划。 大连中级法院对STX大连的 破产拍卖已经失败，迄今已经 开展了三次独立拍卖。 ST X大 连于3月正式进入破 产程序，总债务为350亿元人民 币（56.5亿美元）。 国营大连船舶重工集团有限 公司可能最终接管STX大连。 最后，用扬子江船业在证交 所发布的一份文件中的话做个 总结吧， “在造船行业开展重 组时，合并收购以及关闭在所 难免。” Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

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离岸 ■ ■ ■

需求疲软 Katherine Si 探究 AHTS 领域 两年前，中央政府宣布全国海 洋经济发展计划，以促进国内 海洋油气行业的发展，并鼓励 业内企业大力开发和勘探该领 域，以实现今年年底海洋石油 和天然气产量达到 6,000 万吨 的目标。 两年前，中国的造船厂瞄准 机会进入锚处理拖船 (AHTS) 领域，以获得除了其传统货船 建 造 业 务以 外的更 多 收 益， 逐步接近高端造船领域，但是 现在，大多数造船厂已经改变 建造海洋居住船的初衷，因为 全 球 石油 价格 暴 跌已 经 造 成 AHTS 的需求直线下降。 但是许多国内造船厂认为， 获取建造 AHTS 的订单比集装 箱船或散货船更为容易。 福 建 省马尾 造 船 股 份有 限 公司经营部的一位负责人告诉

SinoShip： “我们专注于建造货 船（例如集装箱船、散货船和 油轮）以及海洋工程 船，显而 易见的是，海洋工程船表现更 好。自今 年 年 初以来，我们获 得建造货船的订单并不多，但 是，我们得到新的 AHTS 建造 订单，这是一个良好的开端， 未来会更好。” 目前，该造船厂正在推广一 种新开发的 64.8 米电力推进 AHTS。

迎。现在，我们正在建造 6 艘 这种类型的 AHTS，预计会获 得更多相关产品订单。” 在 福 建 马尾订 购 A H T S 的 80%以上客户为海外船东，给出 的价格稍高于国内客户。 该 负 责 人 表 示 ：“ 在 中 国，A H T S 价格还是很有竞争 力。” 福建马尾是中国领先的海洋 工程支持船建造商之一。 另 一 家知 名私营中国 海 工

在中国，AHTS价格还是很有竞 争力 该负责人补充 道： “这种船 型由 我 厂与一 家 海 外 合 作 伙 伴共同开发完成，自从我们开 始营销以来，这种船型备受欢

船 舶 造 船 厂太平洋 造 船 集 团 (Sinopacific Shipbuilding) 最近 为其新建造的 SPA150 AHTS 举行了隆重的交付仪式，该船

是为 FEMCO Group 所造。 SPA150配有12 ,0 0 0马力螺 旋桨和150吨系船柱拉力，是SP 系列的第一艘中型AHTS，由太 平洋造船集团自己的设计团队 设计。 船 身总长 7 2 米 ，型 宽 1 7. 2 米，515平方米载货甲板具有 10 吨/平方米的均布荷载 ，船只使 用 2 类动力定位系统 (DP2)，适 合不同类型的海上支持作业、 石油污染物回收以及装载各种 液体和干货。 太平洋造船集团董事长梁小 雷表示： “为了实现我们的前瞻 性战略计划，我们必须利用各 种技术创新和项目管理规范。 将来，我们将继续参与实际工 作，不断改进。” 梁认为，这一里程碑式的船 只建造完成使公司距离实现国 际水平的海工项目管理又近了 一步。 同时，世界领先的港口机械 制造商上海振 华重工( Z PMC ) 已经拿下为中国领先的海洋石 油和天然气服务提供商中海油 服 (COSL) 建造 6 艘 6,500 马力 AHTS 的交易。 COSL 之前于 2013 年 6 月在 ZPMC 订购了 2 艘 AHTS，这是 希望多样化其核心港口机械业 务的 ZPMC 成功接到的第一单 AHTS 建造项目。 COSL 运营和管理着中国规 模最大的 AHTS 船队。但是， 由于最近石油价格下跌，公司 的部分业务已经受到影响，其 AHTS 的工作量快速下滑。 2014 年，COSL 的 AHTS 船 队工作日为4,967天，这是连续 第五年出现下滑，与2010年的 6 , 225天的总天数相比大幅 下 降。COSL 已经发出 2015 年工 作量继续下滑的警告。 但是，根据北京的能源战略 发展计划(2014年至2020年)，中 国将加强渤海湾、东海和南海 的勘探活动，因此AHTS造船厂 仍有扭转颓势的机会。 Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 金融

聚焦融资 Jason Jiang 报道称当前中国船业融资轻而易举

汇 丰 银 行 交 通 运 输 部主 管 Mark Long 预测，对银行融资 的依赖正在逐步恢复。 他表 示， “虽然德国银行的 活跃度正在降低，但亚洲的银 行，尤其是中国的银行，正在积 极扩大它们的市场份额。” DN B亚洲区高级 副总 裁 Andreas Ostern 认为，出口信贷 机构 (ECA) 如今在航运和近海 行业中发挥着重要作用，而且 已有一批新的投资者出现，成 为海事类上市公司股票的重要 买家。 Ostern 表示， “去年，全球航 运资产的 38% 左右被新入市者 收入囊中。” Ostern 表示不必过分担心融 资问题。他说， “尽管市场正在 放慢脚步，但仍有大量可用资 金。” 12

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“通过债券和股票市场涌入 的巨大资金流正在减速。我们 对未来的期望是整合，而不是 ECM活动继续高涨，”Ostern 补 充道。 中国国有银行中国工商银行 的融资租赁部门工银租赁的总 经理杨长昆说，受中国近期的 海上战略计划推动，中国航运 业在未来十年会出现一次资本 增加，从而领导造船业的进一 步转型和拓展。 但是杨表示，由于中国的银 行对航运业和风险的了解还不 够，加上产品缺乏多样性，所以 目前仍处于学习阶段，在航运 业发挥的作用也很小。 新加坡 首航融资信托( F SL Trust)的首席执行官 Alan Hatton 表示， “航运市场的主要资金提 供者是 银行，它们占据的份额

再一次增加，同时，债务资本市 场已经有效地填补了银行留出 的空白。”他认为，如果时机得 当，股权资本市场也能提供一 些支持。 中国进出口银行交通运输融 资 部副主任李想称， “虽然我 们在过去十年间一直保持着增 长势头，但今年中国的造船活 动却没有增加，我认为这将是 一个挑战。” 他还提到，中国进出口银行 2014 年在其船舶融资组合中投 入了158亿美元，但近海部门只 占了其中一小部分，这是因为 中国船厂只是在三四年前才开 始积极建造近海船。 李表 示， “我们只资助中国 建造的船舶，而近海船不是中 国船厂的传统优势。我们在选 择客户时往往精挑细选，并专

注于那些直接与石油公司有业 务往来的知名企业。我们通常 还要求近海资产附带长期服务 合同。” 中国进出口银行将继续优先 考虑借款给较高科技、较高价 值的资产，如液化天然气运输 船、近海船及环保型船。李透 露， “我们将有新的资金渠道， 而且我们也已经准备好为二手 船舶和国内船舶融资。” 李相信，中国日益增长的液 化天然气进口量将为其银行带 来巨大的市场潜力。 “我们认为 液化天然气将成为我们的重点 业务之一，且融资上会要求船 舶有长期租约。” 对于寻求海外融资的中国国 有企业来说，面对的却是一番 不同的景象。 三月，中国银行业监督管理 委员会向外国银行（包括 DNB 等船舶融资银行）发出警告， 要 求他 们 在 为 中国 国 有企 业 (SOE) 提供信贷服务时更加谨 慎。一些银行也收紧了针对国 有企业的贷款规则。 “中国政府并不是对其所有 国有企业一视同仁，给予同等 力度的支持。这使我们更加坚 信，随着政府继续推行市场经 济，这种支持差异未来将继续 扩大。”新加坡星展银行在最 近的一份报告中如是说。 该报告表示，星展银行现根 据中国政府对各家国有企业的 潜在支持力度，将它们划分为 不同等级。 中投证券的航运和物流分析 师孙敏警 告说， “中国的银行 可能仍会在政府的安排下为国 有企业提供大量融资，但对于 外资银行来说，国有企业不再 完全没有风险。”

商品 ■ ■ ■

脏煤登上中国黑名单 据 Mark Downing 报道，世界上人口最多的国家对煤炭的使用正处于高峰

推 进 中 国 现代化的首要燃料 当属廉价、丰富但具 有毁灭性 的脏煤，这与工业革命极为相 似。但是，随着环境污染的加 剧，中国依赖煤炭的浪潮正在 退去，取而代之的是日益便宜 和更加清洁的替代能源。 空气污染 不 仅导 致 生活质 量急速下降，进而引发大量早 逝，还大大损坏了中国的国际 形象，尤其是在北京申办 2022 年冬奥会时。 在今年三月的全国代表大会 中，中国总理李克强再次承诺 要整治慢性污染，这一问题现 已成为全国普遍存在的问题。 李克强强调，中国必须摆脱对 煤 炭 的 依 赖，推 广 可 再 生 能 源，及严惩污染企业和仍沉迷 于经济收益而非环境收益的松 懈官员。决策者们如今已明显 放松对 GDP 增长的重视，GDP 增长曾一直是各级政府官员牺 牲环保追求的目标。 为支持环保承诺，今年财政 部拨款近 20 亿美元，用于整治

空气污染，该数额比 2014 年增 加近 10%，今年对节能减排的 补贴增加 40%，达到近 80 亿美 元。为抓住市场力量，北京似乎 也在筹划十年来规模最大的电 力行业改革，这将对效率低下 的脏煤发电厂带来沉重压力。 国家能源局 (NEA) 在精心设 计其 2015-2020 年的清洁煤行 动计划时，提出使用天然气和 可再生能源集中供热和供电， 从而代替中国北方居民区中约 600,000 个工业锅炉中燃烧的 劣质热能煤。到 2020 年，国家 能源局将强制北京、上海和广 州的主城区周围均由使用天然 气或清洁煤炭的发电厂供电。 工业和信息化部早先曾发布一

中国每年消耗

37

亿吨 煤炭，占其能源需求 总量的三分之二

份行动计划，其目标是到 2017 年，将煤炭消耗量减少 8,000 万吨，到 2020 年再减少一倍。 中国每年消耗 37 亿吨煤 炭，占其能源需求总量的三分 之二。中国仍然是世界上最大 的煤炭消耗国，其消耗量占全 球总消耗量的一半，自 2000 年 以来，占全球煤炭需求增长量 的五分之四。但在经过数十年 的重度使用之后，中国已经潜 在 达 到 或 接 近 煤 炭消耗 的顶 峰，许多分析家认为，中国的煤 炭消耗拐点将在 2020 年出现。 据中国国家统计局报告，去 年，煤炭产量和需求量 14 年 来首次出现下滑，二者的降幅 均接近 3%。今年前四个月的需 求量与去年同期相比下降 8% 。政府的初步数据显示，截至 今年五月，煤炭总进口量达到 8,300 万吨，与上一年相比下降 了 38%，同时，对石油和天然气 的需求量上升。 申银万国证券分析师 Zheng Nan 日前告诉路透社记者， “由

于新政策及对新[可再生]能源 的使用，与去年相比，[煤炭]进 口量持续下降。” 与 2014 年相比，中国煤炭 消耗 总量的绝 对下降 值在奔 向 5% 的道路上。但一些分析 师质疑这一统计数据，他们认 为，为符合严苛的空气污染法 律，存在漏报行为。 全 球一半的钢铁诞 生于中 国北方工业重地的熔炉中，这 进一步恶化了空气质量。但衰 退的经济、经过改进的高炉技 术及关闭效率低下的熔炉抑制 了对优质进口焦煤的需求。 通过禁止在东部沿海的主要 城市新建重污染火电厂和钢铁 厂，北京正在将煤炭工业赶到储 煤量丰富的西部地区。尽管考虑 到煤炭领域提供了 600 万就业 岗位，中央政府仍将大力推广更 清洁的能源，及说服经济远离 钢铁等能源密集型行业。 预计非洲和印度等其他新兴 市场对煤炭的需求量将增加， 一 些 分析师 认 为全 球 对 煤 炭 的需求将在本世纪 30 年代触 顶。印度政府预期今年的煤炭 出口量将出现高达 20% 的上 涨，但是出于对现有印度尼西 亚、澳大利亚和南非海运煤炭 出口商的不满，政府最终寻找 私人承包商开发其尚未利用的 煤田。 如果中国经济抛锚，需要经 济刺激，或替代燃料的成本增 加，中国的煤炭消耗可能会回 升。当今的煤炭市场明显供过 于求，但是随着投资放缓，新兴 市场的需求量可能在未来几年 回弹。尽管一些观察家对其他 新兴市场的需求量上涨持乐观 态度，但 这些进口不太可能抵 消中国的减少。 Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 物流

水运通道 Jason Jiang 关注北京如何改变长江航运

随 着中央 政府颁布将制造业 从沿海地区向内陆地区转移的 政策，市场对从内河港口到主 要沿海港口更具成本效益的运 输需求大大增加。 长江是中国最长的河流，也 是世界上第三长的河流，它流经 11 个省份，东入东海，西至中国 西部工业化程度最高的省份之 一四川省。长江凭借其 3,728 英 里长的航道，成为目前世界上 最繁忙的货物运输内河。 2014年，中国国务院出台新 计划，即将长江流域建设成一 个名为黄金水道经济带的经济 区，该区域占中国 GDP 总量的 40％。 该计划要求通过扩大公路网 和铁路网，增强长江沿岸地区 的运输能力和多式联运物流。 它还旨在借助因政府的“西部 14

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大开发”政策而在中西部地区 开枝散叶的制造基地，改善江 海直航运输服务，从而将货物 从河港直接运输到海港，无需 中转。 武汉港集装箱公司总经理顾 强生说， “江海直 航运输服务 已成为从内陆地区往沿海地区 运送货物的新趋势，与海路联 运和海铁联运相比，它大大提 高了运输效率，并降低了物流 成本。” “但是，该运输服务要求船 舶 达 到交 通 运输 部的 相 关 标 准，而且长江各港口的基础设 施水平参差不齐，这都减缓了 该运输服务的发展速度，”顾 补充道。 他表示，江海直航运输服务 在过去几年里一直断断续续。 最近，中远集团和中海集装箱

运输公司 (CSCL) 在武汉港联合 经营一项江海直航运输服务。 隶属于中远集团的上海泛亚 航运公司表 示，其已经在公司 今年的新造船计划中增加了内 河船舶，预计明年会在上海投 入使用。 四月，长江航务管理 局、中 国船级社以及浙江省舟山市政 府签订了一份 谅解备忘录，合 作研究和开发内河货船，以进 一步缩短从内陆港到海港的货 物运输时间。 同月，舟山港还与重庆、宜 昌、武汉、南京、泰州等多个长 江港口签署协议，共同发展江 海直航运输，同时，舟山政府已 与许多地方银行和金融机构建 立了针对江海直航运输的专项 投资基金。 据中国最大的内河航运公司

长江轮船公司的一位高级职员 称，为满足日益增长的需求， 该公司正在扩建其内河船队。 该公司目前拥有 25 艘内河船。 他还解释说， “我们相信这 个市场存在巨大的增长空间， 我们也在努力发展该领域内的 业务，如研发新船型和投资升 级部分河港的基础设施。内河 船舶也有望被列入政府的长江 船舶标准化计划中，该计划将 为船舶公司提供补贴支持。” 亚致力物流 (Agility Logistics) 的一位网点经理周萍说， “由于 可用船舶有限，航道网络也不 完善，加上公路运输灵活，海路 联运仍然是目前最快且最受欢 迎的运输方式，所以该领域目 前的业务增长并不明显，但我 们的确认为该市场未来有巨大 的潜力。”

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

福建第一 Jason Jiang 写道，去年福建省的三家船运公司已合并成一家区域巨头

福

建位于中国的东南沿海， 一直是该国一个重要的海 运通路。1405年，中国著 名的航海家郑和从福建泉 州开始了他的第一次航程，为中国海运历 史翻开了一页新的篇章。 作为增强该省整体海洋实力计划的一 部分，福建省交通运输集团有限责任公 司合并了福建的主要海运资产，并于2014 年年底成立了福建省海运集团有限责任 公司。 新成立的福建省海运集团有限责任公 司已经整合了福建省三家最大的船运公 司，包括福建省轮船总公司、福建省厦门 轮船有限公司和福建东方海运有限公司以 及 40多家中小型公司，总资产价值为50 亿元人民币。 该集团已经成为这个沿海省份的领先 海运集团和船员管理集团，拥有一支具有 45 只船舶的船队。 福建省轮船总公司前总经理杨锦昌已 经成为新集团的总经理。

“福建省的年度货物吞吐总量超过3亿 吨，以前该吞吐量的90%由福建以外的海 运公司完成，但是随着福建省海运集团有 限责任公司的成立，现在情况将逐渐改 变，”杨总经理表示。 杨总经理表示，该集团已经在合并之 后明确划分三家主要海运公司的业务。福 建省轮船总公司现在主要关注散货海运， 福建东方海运有限公司处理集装箱海运， 福建省厦门轮船有限公司在将散货船资产 转让给福建省轮船总公司之后，专注于乘 客运输业务。 “整合福建的海运资产已经优化了 该省的船队资产并增强了我们的海运能 力，”杨总经理如此表示，并补充说福建 省轮船总公司已经为推动当地海运行业合 并和联合以应对目前市场萧条树立了一个 好榜样。自从市场低迷以来，北京一直在 推动更大的海运合并。 4月，福建自贸区已经在上海、天津和 广州之后正式开始运营。 福建自贸区已被分为位于福州、厦门

有时，你不知道未来该怎么走，但生活会带你 前行

和平潭的三个部分，总面积 118 平方公 里。福建自贸区的优先考虑事项之一是推 进中国大陆与台湾之间的贸易关系。 杨总经理预计，该集团有望从福建自 贸区受益，该集团还计划采用整合的集装 箱船队增加中国和台湾之间的服务。交通 部已经批准该集团运营台湾的直接集装 箱服务。 杨总经理表示，福建将很快开始运营 许多钢材和电力项目，将大幅提高海运 需求。 目前，福建也正在重组其港口资产。 厦门港务于2014年完成了重大重组，整合 了许多港口码头公司。2014年年底还成 立了蒲田港务集团，整合了湄州湾的港 口资产。 过去几年，福建的年度港口投资大约 为100亿元人民币。根据2014年当地政府 发布的港务发展指南，福建计划将所有集 装箱海运业务整合到厦门港和福州的江阴 港区域，将干货散货海运整合到福州的罗 源湾港区域以及湄州湾北部，将液态散货 海运整合到漳州港和湄州湾南部。 杨总经理相信，海运和港口业的发展 将带来更多的上游贸易商和供应商，最终 将加速整个产业链的升级。 “对于这一方面，我认为福建省海运 集团将成为区域经济发展的支柱，”杨总 经理总结表示。

福建省海运集团有限 责任公司 成立于1997年，成立之初是一家 国营航运公司，2008年被浙江挺 宇集团完全收购。该公司现为国 内集装箱航运市场中的龙头航运 公司之一，经营70多艘船舶。

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■ ■ ■ 人物专访

船队优化时间 杭州企业集团正在寻求一些散货船投资机会。Jason Jiang 报道

总

部设在杭州的浙江航民集 团是 一家大 型多领域企 业，主要从事印刷、纺织、 电力和 煤 炭 贸易业 务，同 时还经营着一家名为航民海运的海运子公 司，该公司专注于国内沿海、长江和珠江市 场的煤炭和矿石运输业务。公司目前经营 着三艘散货船，总运能为 65,800 载重吨。 集团总裁朱重庆于 1979 年在杭州附近 的航民村创办一家小型印刷纺织厂，该厂 已经 发展成为目前 在 上海上市的航民集 团，一家规模庞大的企业集团。 朱也是航民村的领导人，一直领导该村 的发展，如今已经发展成为中国最富有的 村庄之一，开设各种领域的工厂，其中包括 纺织、电力、黄金加工、金属生产以及污水 处理。 朱 表 示，海运是集团多领域 业务的一 个关键细分市场，对集团供应链有协同作 用。 朱表示： “创建海运业务后，我们已经完 成和激活整个供应链。” 航 民 海 运 由航 民 集 团 和 深 圳 柏 连 实 业公司于 2008 年携手创建，航民集团于 2013 年取得航民海运的全部控股权。 朱解释道，集团的大型生产设施得到其 运营的发电厂支持，而发电厂则有其煤炭 贸易和海运业务支持。 朱承认，由于散货海运市场持续衰退， 海运业务损失惨重。航民海运去年净亏损 人民币 1544 万元。 朱说道： “我们正在努力尝试使航民海 运恢复盈利，但是，我认为短期内实现这 一目标并非易事。” 朱认为，国内煤炭市场产能过剩以及煤 炭价格下跌让散货运输市场雪上加霜。目 前，中国大约 80% 的煤矿出现亏损。 但是，朱并不悲观。他表示，航民海运 正在研究运输市场、新造船艇市场和拆船 市场，同时准备优化其船队，以更好地满足

市场需求。航民集团也正在协商收购一些 煤矿资产，以提高其煤炭贸易业务并支持 运输业务。 朱 预计，市场的衰 退时间也是 投资良 机，瞄准合 适的 资产极 为关 键。朱补充 道： “在风险可控的前提下，我们从来都很 愿意进行投资，获得新的增长点。” 他还声称，自四月份起，国内沿海煤炭 运输市场已经显示复苏的迹象，近期复苏 速度小幅提高。

2007年，我开始发展21世纪四衢战略， 现在已经结出硕果。 16

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航民海运 航民海运创建于2008年，是在 上海上市的航民集团的海运子 公司。该集团是一家多领域企 业，主要从事印刷、纺织、电 力和煤炭贸易业务。公司目前 经营着一只拥有三艘散货船的 船队。

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各行各业均存在机遇 香港Tiger Group Investments的董事总经理Julian Proctor发现许多领域存在投资潜力

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iger Group Investments董事总经

理Julian Proctor声称，与仍将 保 持“ 不 确 定”市 场 的 干 散 货 海 运 不 同，未 来 几 年，集 装 箱 海 运 将 经 历“巨大 复 苏 ”。公司 旗 下 有 Seaspan、Greathorse Shipping、POSH Terasea 和GC Industrial Investments (GCI) 等公司。 Tiger 通过 Seaspan 和 GCI 掌握了逾 100 亿港元的集装箱船资产。对于Proctor 而言，该领域已经作好强劲增长的准备。 “ 随着船运公司报告取得更佳的业绩，这些 行业正在经历巨大复苏，”他补充说： “今 后12个月对于集装箱船出租方 将十分有 利。” 订购更大集装箱船的趋势，可能很快导 致 Seaspan 返回韩国购买一些大船。 “我们 认为大船的趋势将会继续。有更多的船运

公司将会订购大船。”他在俯视香港维多 利亚港的办公室时如此说道。 但 是，集 装箱海运的喜讯 并未出现在 干散货领域，Tiger 通 过持有Great hor se Shipping和Tiger Bulk的股份而置身于干散 货领域。 “干 散 货 将 度 过 几 年 非常 艰 难 的岁 月，”Proctor承认道： “但这将带来许多机 遇。” Proctor承认存在纽约的所有资金进 入该领域的顾虑。 “没有人知道他们的表现 会如何，”他沉思后补充道： “这会给已经 不确定的市场增加变数。” Tiger 对其已经进入的任何领域的市场 时间大致掌握地十分清楚 — 油轮可能除 外，Proctor 承认。 “我们去年向希腊船东出售了许多巨型 油船 —现在时间已到，”在讨论是否决定

我们认为油轮已经过充分估值，除了不锈钢 化学品运输船以外，我们将不会在这一方面作 出投资

卸下船只时他如此表示。 然而，Proctor认为船只现已启航；投资机 遇随处可见。 “我们认为油轮估值已经很充分，除了 不锈钢化学品运输船以外，我们将不会在 这一方面作出投资，”英国人如此表示。 Greathorse Chemical 目前是该集团的油 轮工具，其拥有一支由 12 只船舶组成的船 队，Proctor 表示，公司将增添船只，但只会 进行有选择性地增添。

Tiger Group Investments 是 一 家位 于 香 港 的 投 资 巨 头，旗下Seaspan、Greathorse Shipping、POSH Terasea和 GC Industrial Investments等 公司。

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海运的最坏时期已经结束 一位重量级海运经济学家告诉 Katherine Si，我们不应对目前的市场状况感到如此悲观

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界经济研究所是大连海事 大学的一部分，所里的刘 斌教授是亚洲最重要的海 运经济学家之一。 对于读者的喜讯在于，刘斌教授认为船 运正处于稳定的复苏模式；现在已经触底 反弹。 他承认仍然存在产能过剩问题，但是， 这对于20 08年的情况来说已有很大的改 善。另外，船运公司产生的坏账已经消除。 对于刘斌教授来说同样重要的是货主 和船东之间的关系会越来越缓和。 “货主和船东之间的新造船竞争不再 激烈，”刘斌教授如此表示。 “他们中的一 部分已经开始寻求合作机遇，比如淡水河 谷公司和中远集团 (Cosco)。这是货主和船 东之间关系的一个巨大变化。” 刘斌教授甚至表示，干散货市场没有波 罗的海干货指数反映的那么糟糕。他坚持 认为，量正在不断上升，但是运营成本低， 因此干散货运输尚有利润。

对于油轮来说，刘斌教授认为今年下半 年中国进口的石油将超过前六个月，可以帮 助进一步推高费率。 刘斌教授注意到，由于造船价格低，船 东可以以很好的价格升级和优化其船队。 刘斌教授认为航运业的各个方面，无论 是航运公司、港口或船厂之间的整合都是 一种趋势，并且将会继续。 “中国的港口可能被整合到更大的港务 集团并具有某些区域特征，例如长江港口 集团和渤海湾港口集团，”刘斌教授表示。

货主和船东之间的新造船竞争不再激烈。他 们中的一部分已经开始寻求合作机遇，比如淡 水河谷公司和中远集团。这是货主和船东之间 关系的一个巨大变化。

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最后，刘斌教授向中国大量的私营船运 公司提出一条建议。他敦促这些船运公司 在证券市场上市，以改善运营和扩大业务 范围。 刘斌教授，大连海事大学世界经济研究 所所长。研究方向主要为财务管理、航运 经济、世界经济。在国际、国内重要刊物上 发表多篇国际论文，出版多部专著及省部 级课题。 任辽宁省政府经济改革研究会常务理 事，辽宁省市场经济学会副会长。中国交 通运输协会特邀研究员、新华社特邀研究 员。曾多次出席欧洲、美国及东南亚地区 的国际港航研讨会。

世界经济研究所 世界经济研究所是大连海事大 学的一部分，大连海事大学是全 球最大的高等海事大学之一，是 中国唯一一所中央部属高校,交 通运输部唯一直属高等学府。

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支持码头基础设施建设 Turloch Mooney 从香港华光海运公司总部对一项针对船员心理健康的试点培训计划的结果进行报道

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港船东华光海运公司 (Wah Kwong) 开发了一个 全新的培训计划，旨在帮 助高级船员向船员宣传心 理健康的重要性，提高其自我健康意识。 计划的目的是为了降低心理健康出现 问题的风险，减少心理问题对全船的影 响。 负责计划内容开发的心理医生黄颂显 (Wong Chung Hin Willy) 说：“船员由于长 时间生活在船上，社交活动有限，远离亲 人朋友，时间一长就会有心理压力，并有 可能产生如适应性障碍和抑郁症等心理问 题。” 华光公司经营的船队包括27艘干散 货船、油轮和液化石油气船，并计划到 2017 年将船只数扩大到 40 艘。该公司还 在山东青岛设立了一所船员培训学校，每 年可以培训 100 人次。 黄医生还说：“计划的主要目标是为 了提升船员的自我健康意识。” 现代船员生活中的一些因素被认为有 可能导致船员在出海时产生心理问题。船 上人员减少，造成社交机会有限就是其中

最主要的因素之一。 “过去我们喜欢聚在一起打牌、用餐 等。现如今，这种交流少了，因为大家在 休息的时候都更愿意直接回到自己的小隔 间，”一位华光高级管理人员这样说。 有人认为，船东为船员提供的网络接 入越来越便捷，却也使船员在船上时越来 越与社会隔绝。也有人担心，船上接触社 交媒体的机会在增加，却也使船员更有可 能会发现亲人朋友传来的坏消息，进而陷 入无助当中。 “媒体就是一把双刃剑”，华光海运 公司的首席执行官 Tim Huxley 最近在香港 电台的波峰和波谷 ( Peaks and Troughs) 节 目中这样说。“虽然能与家人朋友保持联 络是好事，但一旦家里出了事而你却在远 洋航行，除了担心其余能做的非常少。” 最近就发生了一场悲剧，另一家船运 公司的一名船员因为与人在 Facebook上发 生争吵而后选择了自杀。 心理健康问题除了会产生人力成本 外，还会打乱船只行程和导致船员辞职， 进而造成经济损失。 计划分成若干不同的模块，包括向高

级船员介绍心理健康的概念；探讨常见问 题，尤其是中国和亚洲船员身上经常存在 的心理问题；为高级船员提供“心理急 救”培训，使其具备相应的基本常识，遇 紧急事件发生时能够知道在缺乏医疗设备 或专业建议时应该如何应对。计划还特别 列举了多个案例研究，目的是向人们演示 遇特定情境应如何处理。 黄医生说：“船长要具备评估不同事 态严重性的能力，并作出最佳决策。” 华光推出计划的同时，人们也开始 意识到有必要去关注航运业工作场所的 健康。关注度最高的就是由水手协会 ( Sailors’ Society) 发起的“海上健康” (Wellness at Sea) 项目。 Huxley说：“因远离家人朋友所产生 的孤独离别感使很多船员放弃了航海事 业。如果我们能尽早发现问题，并授权船 长和高级船员及时处理，那我们就有更好 的机会去解决这个问题。” “海上健康项目并不是要船长在具备 现有技能的基础上再去扮演教区神父一 职，我们是要留住船员、体现出我们的责 任感，与他们休戚与共。” Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

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关于船员的探讨 中船集团召集三大船舶经营者共同探讨中国船员的优势与劣势 中国船员有哪些优势？ 英商威仕船舶管理公司 (V.Ships) 东亚区人 力总监 Benny Lee 指出，中国船员的平均年 龄构成要低于印度和菲律宾船员，这两国 的船员年龄越来越高。 而且 Lee 还认为，中国船员接受基本教 育的程度平均水平较高。 联 通 管 理 服 务（塞 浦 路 斯）总 经 理 Sergey Popravko 评论说，来自中国的高级船 员一般都受过良好的教育且上进心强，无 需总是管着他们，向他们演示要做什么或 怎么做。中国船舶的高级船员和普通船员 的工资一般都低于印菲船员，这使中国船

员在全球市场具有极高的竞争力，Popravko 表示说。 贝仕船舶管理（中国）公司总经理 Aaron Ruan 说： “他们恪守本分、尊重权威、求 知欲强且学习能力强、头脑清醒、遵守纪 律，而这些都恰好是机械维修行业所要求 具备的。”

中国船员有哪些劣势？ 威仕的 Lee 说： “许多中国船员不具备与 生俱来的安全感和责任感。”他把这其中 的部分原因归咎于中国政府的独生子女政 策，因为在该政策下成长起来的孩子会变

许多中国船员不具备与生俱来的安全感和责 任感

得非常孤立，无法从错误中学会成长。 “虽然有人教授，很多人学得也很快， 但他们还是 少了学习自我 评 估风险的机 会，”他还补充道。 联通的 Popravko 和贝仕的 Ruan 都认为 英语能力差这个老大难问题仍是中国船员 的巨大劣势。 Ruan 还指出，由于与国外接触少，中国 船员在面对文化差异和惯例时都会产生理 解偏差。

你是否发现，随着国家越来越富足， 招 募 船员的 地 区也 在 发 生 变 化，例 如，正在向内陆省份转移？ “这不足为奇，船员丰厚的薪水对内陆省 份的人有极大吸引力，一个国家最贫困的 省份往往在内陆，”贝仕的 Ruan 说。 以前 都 是 在 沿 海 地 区 的 城 市 招 募 船 员。现在沿海地区原本可能做船员的人有 了更好的务工选择，渐渐不再加入海事部 门。 威仕的 Lee 指出，现在招募活动在向内 陆延伸，往往要坐三至四个小时的飞机到 中国西部城市去。大专院校的毕业生则是 在招聘网站的吸引下前来。

相比于菲律宾和印度的高级船员，中 国船员成长为高级船员有难度吗？ 联通的 Popravko 认为，大多数中国高级船 员都作为船上实习生参加培训，之后一步 步发展为高级船员。船员接受再教育晋升 为高级船员的案例并不常见，他补充道。 卫仕的 Lee 也同意他的观点。 “中国的 普通船员很难升到高级船员，”他说， “因 为现行的做法就是直接把新进人员分成两 级— — 受教育程度低的年轻人只能从 普通船员做起。这样的体系使他们很难在 职业生涯里成长为高级船员。也缩短了他 们在这一行业的从业时间。” Lee 说，只有受过良好教育的毕业生才 有机会成长为高级船员，而拥有良好教育 背景的年轻人会有很多更好的机会摆到 20

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他们面前。 “他们对船员的工作并不感兴 趣，”他又强调说。 “处在一个竞争激烈的行业中，留住船 员和忠诚度建设是让 所有船东感到压力 最大的两大难题，”贝仕的 Ruan 这样表 示。他的公司最近推出了一个名为“船员上 岸”(Seafarers coming Ashore) 的船员职业 发展计划。计划的主要对象是第二、三级 航海和工程高级船员，旨在为他们提供类 似管理培训生计划的快速职业发展通道。 年龄在 25 岁左右，有至少两到三年航海经 验，符合这一独特描述的船员正是人事变 动最多的群体。而他们又恰巧处在需要开 始稳定生活、赚钱养家的年龄，因此一份 长期稳定、回报丰厚的工作对他们来说具 有强大的吸引力。

就薪酬而言，中国船员与印菲船员相 比如何呢？ 威仕的 Lee 指出，虽然近年来工资回升很 快，但中国船员薪酬还是比印度和菲律宾 船员薪酬低大约 10％。但是他也警告说， 这种差距在逐渐缩小，随之而来的是原本 的竞争优势会不复存在。这是因为社会福 利缴费和保险的成本是雇主需要承担的主

要成本。而中国正是世界上社会保障缴费 最高的国家之一。 不过联 通的Popr avko表 示，中国的人 力还是比较便宜，他注意到，在过去25年 间，中国的高级船员和普通船员的人数已 经翻了两番。 对此，贝仕的Ruan也表示同意，中国船 员的薪 酬的确比印菲两国船员更具竞争 力，但是他也警告说，由于经济发展和船员 招募地区在变化，中国船员工资的上调势 在必行。

为了推 动更多中国 船员在 国 际 深 海 船只上工作，中国政府还能做些什么 呢？ 大多 数中国船员都只能在中国船只上工 作。Ruan 说，这是受现行教育制度所限。 他说： “当前的教育体系限制了中国船 员的职业发展，尤其是在普通船员阶段的 发展。”“相应地，这也制约了中国船员向 高级船员晋升。现在的教育制度强调的是 证书，而不是船员自身的培训，只有进一 步变革，更多地去关注船员自身技能的培 训，才 能 帮助他们应 对 实际工作中的挑 战，出色履行职责。这样才能让他们在面

中国船员的薪酬比印度和菲律宾船员低近 10%

对印菲两国的船员时更具竞争力。” Ruan和Lee都提到的一点是，中国可以 改进的方面还包括个人所得税。今年早些 时候，印度议会在一项预算提案中提出，只 要船员是在升着印度国旗的船上工作，就 可以免除其的缴税义务。如果提案能够通 过，就会与印度现有的所得税免税提案并 行，现有的规定是，只要印度船员在一个财 政年内于国际水域的船只上工作 182 天或 以上，就可以免税。在菲律宾，在国际水域 工作的船员享有长期免税优惠。 Ruan说： “如果中国政府能遵照国际惯 例为船员免税增福利，船员的收入就会增 加，工作岗位也更具吸引力，从而缓解船员 紧缺的局面。” 不过，Lee也警 告说，中国政府很 难做 出这些改变。他指出，中国政府每年要在 全国为应届毕业生创造 1,200 万个就业岗 位。航海业只是其中一小块— —外国船 只大约只能提供 40,000 个岗位，比例甚 小。 “规模太小，所以政府很难提供特许 支持，”Lee 说。 贝仕的 Ruan 提出第三个可改进的点就 是在全国推广船员招募的标准化和制度规 范化。 联通的 Popravko 则指出提高船员英语培 训水平仍是当务之急。 “向外国船东开放国内船员市场，将会 极大程度地提高身处国际前沿的中国船员 的人数和质量，”Ruan 总结道。 Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 专题

艰难时期 全国拆船业陷入困境，Katherine Si报道

中

国拆船 协会会长谢德华在 接受SinoShip采访时表示， 中国拆船业今 年 仍面临诸 多困难。 中国的拆船厂通常比其在亚洲地区的竞 争对手拆解成本更高，拆船价格更低些，难 有竞争优势。 当前中国的拆船各种税费很高，这使得 本就经营困难的拆船行业处于窘境。 去年，中国大约拆 解了2 51艘船，共计 193万总吨，比去年同期下降22.4％，进口 废船降幅高达57.2％。 谢德华说： “2008年10月国际金融危机 爆发以后的2009、2010年，在航运业低迷 时，沉 迷多 年的 拆船业 迎 来 拆船的小高

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峰，但2011年下半年遇上了国内经济增长 的换挡期，内需拉动乏力，制造业开工不 足，钢铁业面临产能过剩的局面，大宗商品 供需关系发生逆转，生产资料价格持续震 荡下行，废钢铁需求不旺等多因素影响， 拆船业在废船市场活跃期时，开始失去了 金融危机初期的喜悦，在过去的三年中，拆 船企业的困难局面一直没有得到缓解，而 且变成拆船越多越亏损的境地。 他认为“由于全球经济不乐观，国内需 求疲软，废钢价格也处于低谷，尽管国内 稳增长政策措施不断出台，但拆船业今年 的发展仍难乐观。”

利润空间缩小

谢德华表示，中国拆船业环保拆船是符 合国家的环保政策导向和长远目标的，但 企业环保投入也会有所增加，这意味着拆 船企业扭亏的压力可能会更大。 对于拆船厂来说，融资渠道窄，融资成 本高一直是困扰企业发展的难题，加上这 些船厂都不是上市公司，所以也很难获得 其他渠道的资金支持。 政府的拆船补贴政策虽然已经提供了 近三年，但谢德华认为这些补贴很难帮到 拆船厂。拆船厂难有回报，只是履行了社会 责任，体现了社会效益而已，谢德华表示。 “事实上我们虽然拿到了订单，却很难 挣到钱，”来自中国拆船行业领导品牌的长 江拆船厂的一名发言人说道， “补贴都是

拆船 ■ ■ ■

现金买家的观点

国市场目前的状况相对较好。中国船东 如果在中国拆船，每吨就会得到近740 元的补贴。如果卖家还在中国船厂投资 造新船，就能够获得双倍的优惠，这样 拆船厂也会获益。 “不过，”Sharma补充说，“尽管有 这些措施，经常接触拆船厂的贸易方对 我们中国办事处表示，有些拆船厂的拆 船量还达不到最佳产能，还有相当一部 分仍然没有实现盈利。”

中国政府决定延长其拆船补贴计划至 2017年，这会让当地拆船厂有短暂休息 的机会，新加坡Wirana公司的首席执行 官Rakesh Khetan表示。 他说，“市场可能有足够的当地拆 船供应量，至少在有激励政策的情况 下。” 对此，世界上最大的送拆解船舶现金 买家，迪拜GMS公司CEO Anil Sharma表 示赞同，他说在政府补助的帮助下，中

现金买家的观点

发到船主手里，我们什么都拿不到。” “拆船业在中国有价无市，”舟山长宏 金属资源利用有限公司总经理 朱教宝叹 息说， “用于绿色经营的投资和税收大大 加重了拆船厂的成本。此外，下游市场不景 气，报废钢需求低迷，拆船废钢积压，整个 行业都在遭受着损失。” 目前，中国拆船协会正建议减轻拆船厂 的高税负担。 政府要求国内各类企业要注重安全生 产和环境保护，拆船企业也不例外。 谢德华已经要求协会的成员们越是在 困难时期，越 要重视安全 生产和环境保 护，不断改 进 拆船的安 全标准和工作流 程。

欧盟正在帮助中国的拆船业变得更环 保。 奥地利Institute of Waste Management (ABF-BOKU) 和中国资源综合利用协会 （CARCU）联合推出了针对中国拆船 业的欧盟-中国环境可持续发展计划项 目，该项目将于明年7月31日完工。 据来自ABF-BOKU的Roland Ramusch 说，中国拆船市场目前处境艰难，因为 中国必须与孟加拉、印度和巴基斯坦等 国竞争，这些国家在保护工人和环境方 面的法规都不是很严格。 然而，船东所面临的压力却越来越 大，因为越来越多的人都认识到海滩拆 解给工人和环境所带来的巨大危害。 这 样，公众的压力和欧盟拆船条例的实 施，将推动更多的船东去寻求替代，而 这对中国是有利的。 Ramusch说，“中国船厂有优势，因 为他们在拆船时长期使用码头拆船，经 验丰富，这使得他们在申请欧盟的拆船 厂认证时，具有显著优势。” 但是，他们还要与其他国家竞争，而 这些国家给报废船舶的价格都较高，为 了更具竞争力，中国船厂需要证明他们

能够在拆船时对环境是无害的，能够涵 盖船舶从抵达拆船厂到最终拆解危险和 非危险废物时的各个方面。 Ramusch强调，船厂要特别注意拆船 的流程和文件记录，尤其是对下游废物 管理时要遵照欧盟的相关规定。 在设备和工人的安全性方面，中国 拆船厂都已经非常先进。中国拆船厂所 面临的首要问题就是要提高废物管理的 透明度。欧盟规定拆船厂要全面记录所 拆船的类型、数量和所有废物的处理地 点。 但是，相对经济利益的诱惑程度，目 前南亚拆船厂在环保拆船方面所承受的 压力还远远不够。 世界上最大的送拆解船舶现金买 家，GMS公司的Nikos Mikelis博士说，“ 虽然少数欧洲航运公司正承受着压力， 也向一些非政府组织的积极分子承诺把 他们的船送往中国，但这对于大头国际 航运业来说是不可持续的。现在，越来 越多的船来到中国，这将导致已经低迷 的废钢价格完全崩溃。” 但是，随着欧盟日趋禁止悬挂欧盟旗 帜的船舶使用滩拆，中国船厂的春天或 许也将到来。

Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 枢纽：上海

规模更大但并未更好 当局正在走出海岸线扩展港口 4月，上海 市政府宣布上海自 由贸易区已经在大规模扩展计 划下进入一个新的发展阶段。 上海自贸区于 2013 年启动， 被称为是大胆改革的一块试验 田，旨在尽可能多地创造以市 场为驱动的经济。 上海自贸区的总面积已经从 最初的2 8 .78平方公里增加到 120.72平方公里，覆盖的新区域 包括金桥开发区、陆家嘴金融 贸易区和张江高科技园区。 上海自贸区管委会副局长主 任孙继伟表 示，自贸区管委会 将与上海浦东新区人民政府合 署管理自贸区，这是政府职能 的一种创新，将有助于协调资 源。 扩展的自贸区内的企业总数 已经超过73,900家，其中包括 16,300家外国公司。 “自贸区将为上海港提供更 好的环境，以便在国际舞台上 与对手竞争，” 上海市交通委 员会航运发展处处长施正伟表 示。 “由于海运业务是一个相当 开放的行业，它的发展需要一 个相适宜的国际环境，” 施处 长补充表示。 金融改革是上海自贸区的一 个主要亮点。由于纳入了上海 的金融和贸易中心陆家嘴，扩 大后的自贸区现已有效吸引了 中国大部分现有金融机构。 港口机械制造商上海振华重 工(ZPMC) 首席财务官王珏表 示，公司目前 能够开立自由贸 易账户以及以较低的费率申请 离岸融资，预期公司能够节约 10%左右的融资成本。 自由贸易账户允许公司将人 民币和其它外国货币转入和转 24

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出中国以开展资本账户交易， 使 其 筹 集 海 外资 金 并 将资 金 带回中国进行投资，这在过去 的中国是根本不可能发生的事 情。 虽然当局已经 采 取 措 施 放 松海外账户与位于自贸区内的 账 户之 间的 跨 境 资本 流 动 管 控，但是，目前人民币还不能在 该区域内完全自由兑换。 施表示，只要中央银行为其 开绿灯，就可以提供自由贸易账 户服务。 中国也正在考虑推出试验方 案，首次允许上海自贸区内的中 国个人直接投资海外市场。该 计划被称为合格境内个人投资 者计划或 QDII2，是上海市政 府、中央银行和监管机构共同 提议的措施的一部分，旨在促

进中国货币的资本账户兑换和 国际使用。 目前，上海自贸区正在以51 点金融改革提案开展运作，寻 求提高开放性并鼓励创新。 尽管如此，上海国际航运研 究中心秘书长真虹表 示，自贸 区的航运政策仍然需要改进。 “虽 然 政 府 已 经 为自贸区 内的航运公司引入许多优惠政 策，包括允许外商独资船运管 理公司和外国控股合资企业经 营国际海运业务，但是，我们没 有看到自贸区内此类业务的大 量改进，主要是由于缺乏扶持 措施，”真虹表示。 比如，真虹指出，自贸区内的 外国独资船运管理公司仍然不 允许管理悬挂中国国旗的轮船 以及参与中国的船员市场。

真虹表 示，目前自贸区内只 有六项与船 运 相 关 的 优 惠 政 策，但是，他指出，今年中央政 府将发布该领域的更多优惠政 策。 中欧国际工商学院 (CEIBS) 陆家嘴国际金融研究院副院长 刘胜军表达了相同的关注。 “自贸区内的一些企业并没 有感觉到他们受益很多，因为 一些政策未得到很好地实施。 政府仍有空间提高其对区域管 理的透明度，并且应在实施政 策方面更加坚决，”刘胜军 警 示道。 “大家不应对自贸区存在过 多的期望。可以理 解的是，政 府对于该区域内的金融创新比 较谨慎，因为它们可能涉及到 更多风险，”刘胜军总结道。

枢纽：台北 ■ ■ ■

液化天然气需求 台湾岛正在为获得更多天然气做长远打算，Katherine Si 撰文

台湾是一 个人口众多的小岛， 一直缺乏自己的能源资源。在人 口超过 1000 万的国家/地区中， 其人口密度位居全球第二。台 湾国内石油和天然气产量十分 有限，一直且会继续大幅依赖 于液化天然气进口，以满足不断 增长的能源消耗需求及实现低 碳经济体的宏伟目标。 国有企业台湾中油股份有限 公司 (CPC) 是台湾液化天然气 进口的领导者和控制者。 CPC 天然气采购部的一位负 责人告诉 SinoShip： “多年以来 以及现在，我们仍然是台湾唯 一的液化天然气进口商。我们 缺乏能源资源，这是显而易见 的，因此我们必须拥有稳定的 液化天然气进口业务。” 该负责人补充 道： “我们拥 有自己的液化天然气运输船并 与合作伙伴合作运输液化天然 气。我们需要液化天然气，并且

这项业务很稳定。” 目前，CPC在永安和台中经 营 着 两 个 液化 天 然 气 进口码 头，分别在 1990 年和 2009 年 开始投入运营。两个码头每天 的联合输出量为 17 亿立方英 尺。公司正计划在台湾北部修 建第三个码头，CPC传媒部的 发言人告诉SinoShip称“可能需 要几年时间完成细节”。 该发言人继续说 道： “由于 台湾正 在 推 进 液化 天 然 气 发 电，我们相信未来液化天然气 进口量将持续增长。”

1500万吨，2025年将达到1700万 吨，2030年将达到1800万吨。 这些预测源自一则新闻，称 位于新台北市林口区和高雄小 港区大林的两个新发电厂建设 已经延迟，根据目前的计划明 年可能无法开始运转。 台湾能 源专家 现 正在寻求 从 新 的 途 径 采 购 石油和天 然 气。CPC 目前正与大陆的国有 海洋能源企业中国海洋石油总 公司 (CNOOC) 开展合作，在位 于台湾海峡某区块的台湾岛西 南海岸深海钻探油气井。

在人口超过1000万的国家/地区 中，台湾人口密度位居全球第二 发电用量占据台湾液化天然 气用量的80%以上。预计2015 年 液化 天 然 气 的总需 求 量 将 达到1200万吨，2020年将达到

早在 2002 年，两家公司已经 就155 万公顷台潮区块的产量 分成合同初步达成了一项为期 四年的开发合作计划。

CPC 海上探採业务的负责人 郑永丰告诉 SinoShip： “目前， 我们正在与 CNOOC 开展更多 的开发活动和合同，详细计划 可能近期会确定。” 郑表 示： “考虑到商业利益 以及我们本身缺乏能源这一事 实，公司将寻找更多的石油和 天然气勘探机会。” 今年早些时候CNOOC副总 裁王家祥表示，中国和台湾目前 已经签署和讨论了关于台潮盆 地和南日岛项目开发的合同。 王表 示： “台湾和大陆未来 将进行更多交流，合作领域从 台湾海峡的上游勘探活动扩展 到国外勘探活动、液化天然气 采购和技术合作等。” CPC 计划进一步扩展其在 全球的业务，今年年底之前将 在迪拜和卡塔尔设立办事处。 新办事处将处理原油和液化天 然气采购事宜。 Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 枢纽：香港

忘记港口 Sam Chambers呼吁 让我们停止讨论急速下降的集装箱吞吐量而看看长远的发展

关 于香 港 集装箱港口的报道 大幅出现。连续十二个月增长 率下跌— —太糟了，事实上 今年香港可能让出第四位集装 箱港口排名给宁波。 然而，对我来说，这不算什么 新闻了。从海事中心的长远角度 来看，我会找出一些关于香港作 为国际航运中心的未来更麻烦 的问题，一些不被人经常挂在 嘴边的问题。五月中国国有航运 巨头中远和中海成立了合资公 司——中国矿运——以控 制一系列从巴西淡水河谷购买 的大型铁矿石运输船。对于葵涌 码头的业绩下滑来说，这应该足 以敲响警钟了。 过去十年中的大部分时间， 香港在铁矿石运输方面都处于 领先地位，可以说是世界海岬 26

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型散 货船的中心。同样，其也 是大 陆 船东寻 找 第二 靠 泊 港 时的首要选择。当其他人迁移 到别处时，中国的船东纷纷涌 入香港航运上市市场，他们迫 切的想要在香港自由的商业环 境中开展业务。实际上中国矿 运— —以及一批其它的中国 船东——最近决定在新加坡 开展业务才是一个值得关注的 问题。 这关乎于心态 — — 香港 是时候该从以港口为中心转变 到航运服务方面了。 就港口经济方面香港的机会 不容乐观— —它已不再是工

厂的大门，码头又贵又拥挤。这 些都是昨日往事了— — 是时 候向前看了。 不过，香港并不是完全退出 了航运中心的角色。香港的船 旗注册仍然炙手可热，位居世 界前五，并且香港的航运律师 和保险人业务都很繁忙。 问题 是 尽管当局声 称 在 支 持海事行业的发展，但其实未 能抓住大的方向。如果香港想 要繁荣就要向航运业食物链的 更高处发展，而政府也要真正 参与其中。香港的硬件和软件 设施都是不错的。不好的地方 是它对于世界最大企业在其领

就港口经济方面香港的机会不容 乐观

地开展业务的吸引力不够。由 于激励计划，新加坡轻而易举 地就获胜了，不是 对航运公司 （他们都 很大方），而是 对 货 主——像Cargill, BHP这样 的大企业。香港，这块前英国 殖民地的城市，想要夺回这些 业务就需要对航运业食物链的 顶端群体— —租船人，提供 非常具 有吸引力的条件。除非 实现这一点，否则香港在海事 行业将会慢慢褪色。 香 港应该看 看高雄的发 展 — — 距它9 0 分 钟飞行时 间。十年前，它可以被称作是个 茁壮成长的海事中心，有世界 第三大集装箱港口— —而今 都未能 进入前十，没有真正和 航运服务相关的业务便会从视 线中消失。

书籍 ■ ■ ■

学会共处 Paul French 论中美关系

在21世纪的前15年里，世界发 生了翻天覆地的变化。中国已 经崛起；美国则已被视为有几 分步履蹒跚。实际上，美国并不 是 20 世纪的唯一主角，同样， 中国也不可能像一些预言说的 那样，是 21 世纪的唯一主角。 作为两个隔太平洋相望、有着 无数海事利害、地区问题及合 作和贸易的国家，它们最终 要 学会共处。许多新书审视了这 一时而风雨飘摇时而浅尝辄止 的全新关系。 章家敦的著作《Fateful Ties: America’s Preoccupation with China》（《命中注定的关系： 美国对中国的关注》）或许 是 一个不错的起点。章家敦供职

于多个美国智囊团，他与中国 的关系或许不太和睦— —他 曾因 2003 年出版的《中国即将 崩溃》一书而名声大噪，在该书 中，他预言中国即将崩溃，但是 这一预言并没有成真。他的新 书从美国与中国的首次接触和 19 世纪的贸易船舶开始，探讨 两国的长期关系。章家敦是正 确的— —美国一直对这个中 央大国情有独钟— —视它为 潜在的巨大市场、强敌、冷战时

期的潜在盟友以及如今的经济 对手。不过，也可以写一本类似 的书，论 证中国一直对美国情 有独钟— —共和制、国富民 强、兵强马壮。章家敦认为中 美关系风雨飘摇，但事实会证 明，两国相互仰慕的历史关系 是本世纪维系两个大陆经济的 纽带。 Henry Paulson 的著作 《Dealing With China: An Insider Unmasks the New

美国一直对这个中央大国情有独 钟，视她为潜在的巨大市场和如今 的经济对手

Economic Superpower》（《与中 国打交道：一位内部人士揭开 新经济超级大国的面纱》）更加 详细地阐述了政策冲突和所谓 的“热门”问题。这或许正是大 家对这位前高盛首脑和美国财 政部长的期望。Paulson 的解释 充满轶事色彩，但不得不说， 当由像 Paulson 这样位重权高 的人 来述说时，轶事也是有用 的。该书籍一部分是讲如何经 商，一部分是中国外交指南， 一部分是对中国崛起的解释， 《Dealing With China》一书十 分有用。但有批评说，Paulson 与北京的亲密交往对当今的习 近平、反腐和“中国梦”时代而 言有些过时，但他仍然是自基 辛格以来与北京的最高层对话 者之一。 一些作者确实看到了引发矛 盾的问题。Ted Galen Carpenter 的著作《America’s Coming War with China》（《中美未来之 战》）提出的观点是中美矛盾焦 点在于台湾。Galen Carpenter 认 为台湾（受美国支持）和中国大 陆处于一条会发生碰撞的轨道 上，除非出现戏剧性的变化，否 则，十年内，一场武装冲突的爆 发几乎在所难免。他提出了补 救措施，但是多数人认为他夸 大了北京懂得与充满活力的台 北相处及反过来的情况。Lyle J. Goldstein 在他的著作《Meeting China Halfway》（《半路遇见中 国》）中，从另一个角度阐述了 华盛顿和北京如何能在新世纪 中缓解紧张，并注重他们的相 互需求。Goldstein 提出“合作 螺旋(cooperation spiral)”建议， 而不是下行的冲突螺旋。正如 对待历史的一贯方法——一 切交给时间来评判。 Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

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■ ■ ■ 意见

未知水域的航运规则 碳排放问题无良药可医，多方沮丧在所难免，Neville Smith 撰文

航 运 业 在 《压 载 水管 理 公 约》(Ballast Water Management (BWM) Convention) 和《防止 船舶污染国际公约》附则 VI (Marpol Annex VI) 修订案上的 观点不谋而合，这种情况似乎 不会再次出现。对于如何应对 下一 个大 挑战：碳，航运业似 乎面临前所未有的分歧。 对 海洋环境保 护 委员会 (MEPC) 而言，碳甚至不是一个 新的议程项目，但是，关于该问 题的意见日益纷繁复杂，迫使要 将这个公认的巨大挑战转变为章 程中第三组不受欢迎的规则。 控制二氧化碳排放或许不会 引发《压载水管理公约》带来 的技术/解决方案不匹配的风 险，但是它有可能在低硫运输 成本尚未完全计算出来之时， 增加船主和货主的成本。 但是，欧盟又一次采取单方 28

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行动，试图通过其 MRV 计划 控制局势。国际海事组织 (IMO) 自行 采集 全 球 船 舶 数 据的工 作尚未开始，但是其温室气体 (GHG) 研究至少已经开始建立 数据基准。 鉴于欧盟早前的尝试失败， 航运业或许对排放交易方案有 恃无恐，但是在其水域内收取 某种碳税的威胁足以让船主焦 虑不安。

展中国家在 IMO 方面积极活 动，反对通过任何类型的市场 机制为碳买单，本周，他们很有 可能再 次 这么做。但是，这些 国家现在有了新盟友，或至少 是他们的敌人的敌人。 马绍尔群岛— — 世界上 第三大 船旗国— — 最 近举 动颇为不当，该国提倡为减少 温室气体排放设立新的全球目 标，实际上是暗示其应加入国

低硫航运的成本尚未完全计算 出来 年底的巴黎气候会议日益临 近，但自签订《京都议定书》以 来，他们嘴上夸夸其谈，却没有 做出减少排放的坚定承诺，航 运业可能再次为此幸灾乐祸。 未签订《京都议定书》的发

际气候磋商。 这看起来似乎南辕北辙，甚 至毫无帮助，但是该船旗国明 显感觉到让 IMO 解决该问题的 时机已不复存在。 船主 及其 联 盟仍 然 极力反

对 MBM，但是他们承认，他 们没有以船 舶 能 效 设 计 指数 (EEDI) 和船舶能效管理计划 (SEEMP) 所取得的进展为基础 的具体替代方案。 这也表明，船主面临着更多 比碳排放更为紧迫的问题，在 发达国家亦是如此， “全 球变 暖”或“气候变化”议题在选民 心中的地位已不如从前。 然而，不管行业的愿望多么 虔诚，碳不会自动消失。在本届 MEPC 会议上，其不会消失，但 是，关于航运业在碳排放中的 角色，整个行业需要心怀同一 个愿景，该愿景支持 IMO 成为 主要监管人，并努力达成航运 业能够求同存异的共识。 将此定为来自行业内部且不 依 赖成本/ 效益分析制约的蓝 天技术的解决方案，可能是避 免重蹈覆辙的良好开端。

意见 ■ ■ ■

文件，文件，随处可见 Andrew Craig-Bennett 想知道，在互联网时代，船舶为什么必须携带如此多过时的证件 为 船 长 签 发几份文件并要求 他向登船者出示及强调他们查 看相关文件的权利有何意义？ 正确答案是“为了让腐败的 港口官员们有事可做”。 我听说最近有一艘船驶入俄 罗斯港口补给燃料；代理人上 船并坚持要求将贸易单证文件 一起带上岸。之后不久，港口国 监管局的两位先生现身要求查 看证书，在被告知证书被代理 人带上岸后，这艘船被强制征 收了 500 美元罚金。 只有一个地方是存放船舶贸 易单证的合理地方，那就是互 联网。如果政府可以将机动车 纳税记录载入互联网，相信同 样的方法也适用于商船？如果 贸易单证在互联网上，国家机 构、港口官员甚至租船者和保 险商都可以在他们一想到该船 舶时便上网查询，而不用等到 船舶抵达港口。 如 果 不相信国际 海事组织 (IMO) 能保证随时更新网站，国 际船级社协会 (IACS) 肯定可以 做到，因为大部分文件都是由 其成员签发的。 这让我想到了 IMO 发明的 最一无是处的文件，即从今 年 2 月 14 日起开始实行的内罗 毕公约残骸清除证书 (Nairobi Convention Wreck Removal Certificate)。正如其它“经济责 任证据”证书一样，该证书由船 舶的船旗国签发，船舶需提供 一笔费用及一张由其船东互保 协会 (P&I Club) 签发的“蓝卡” （实际上是一个 PDF 文件）。 那么，我们为什么要称一个 并不是蓝色的电子 PDF 文件 为“蓝卡”呢？无人知晓。一些

人用美国永久居留权证书来类 比，该证书在 1946 年首次出 现时是绿色的，一些人则认为 可能 是 因为 早 期电 脑 打 印 机 有时使用的是蓝色打印纸。无 论怎样， 《1969 年民事责任公 约》(Civil Liability Convention of 1969) 创建了为油轮造成的油 污染付费的制度，这在当时确 实是一件好事，该制度从 1969 年一直沿用至今。 1969 年已过去 46 年。当 时，越 南 战 争 正 打 得 如 火 如

荼，披 头 士 乐 队 还 在 出 着 专 辑……但 IMO 却没有想出更 好 的 制 度，只 是 在 旧 制 度 中 新增燃油公约证书 (Bunker Convention Certificates)、雅典 公约证书 (Athens Convention Certificates) 和如今的残骸清除 证书。 说到证书，英国海洋事故总 督察 Steve Clinch 船长表示，要 求所有持有值班驾驶员合格证 的海员每五年接受一次模拟器 实践考核是一个不错的想法，

如果政府可以将机动车纳税记 录载入互联网，相信同样的方法 也适用于商船？

以确保他们迅速掌握《避碰条 例》(Collision Regulations)。有 人能提出反对这一做法的充分 理由吗？ 为 免 生 疑 问，我 先 声 明 不 要求在 STCW 中加入口试的 理由— — 即在 很 多国家， 考生会 把 一 叠 钞 票 塞 给监 考 官— —不是“充分的理由” 。正 如 商 船 上 的 很 多 情 况一 样，这是一个糟糕的理由。 墨守成 规始终是 一 个 糟糕 的理由，就像 IMO 所展现的那 样，坚守 46 年前的想法，那个 想法在当年行之有效，但当时 的大型计算机的能力尚不如今 天的一部手机。 IMO 有智慧生命吗？证据微 乎其微。 Sinoship 2015年夏季刊

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