Bolinas, CA | web: 0086863
Marin County Market Update Fourth Quarter 2015 SAN FRANCISCO BROKERAGE 117 Greenwich Street San Francisco, CA 94111 t. 415.901.1700
sothebyshomes.com
All data within this document is pulled from the Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (BAREIS)
A MESSAGE FROM: Jeffrey G. Gibson Senior Vice President and Brokerage Manager As 2015 came to a close, the Marin County real estate market continued to follow the same trends that were seen throughout the first three quarters of the year, according to the Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (BAREIS). The fourth quarter was again marked by a reduction in inventory and a rise in average sales price which trended throughout Marin County as demand continued to outpace supply. I invite you to review the following charts and data depicting the market details for Marin County, Mill Valley, Ross, Kentfield, Sausalito, Tiburon, Belvedere and San Rafael.
MARIN COUNTY MARKET SUMMARY (SFH) The reduction in inventory and increase in average sales price, seen in 2015, was especially pronounced when comparing Marin County’s data from Q4 2012 to Q4 2015, depicting a gradual increase of the average sales price for a single family home from $1,047,491 to the most recent closed average of $1,512,920. Despite the reduction in closed units over the span of four years, from 593 to 512 units, the overall volume was still significantly increased, by approximately 25 percent, due to this growth in sales price. The towns of San Rafael, Ross and Kentfield all epitomized this distinct trend.
Q4-2015 MARIN COUNTY VOLUME
20%
24%
< $1.0M $1.0M - $3.0M $3.0M and up
56%
SAUSALITO SUMMARY (SFH) Sausalito saw a unique jump in it’s Average Sales Price from Q4 of 2014 to Q4 of 2015, when the average price in the $1 million to $3 million range rose from $1,509.929 to $1,908,143, a 26 percent increase. This price range made up 79 percent of the overall volume in Sausalito. Along the same vein, the closed volume had a dramatic increase in Q4 of 2014 to Q4 of 2015, when the total expanded by 27 percent, from $26,640,000 to $33,769,000. Conversely, the closed volume on single family homes below the $1 million mark decreased by 74 percent from $2,101,000 in Q4 2015 to $555,000 in Q4 2015 as the inventory receded and the average sales price dropped.
Q4-2015 - SAUSALITO VOLUME 2% 19% < $1.0M $1.0M - $3.0M
79%
$3.0M and up
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MARIN COUNTY
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco lies Marin County, an area renowned for its natural beauty. Marin County is home to Muir Woods redwood forest, the Marin Headlands, Stinson Beach, the Point Reyes National Seashore and Mount Tamalpais. Most of the county’s population resides on the eastern side, with the interior of the county consisting of large areas of agricultural and open space.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
$654,709
$705,495
$758,385
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,569,734
$1,533,844
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,293,130
$4,453,500
UP TO $1 MILLION
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$1,600,000
$773,819
2%
$1,200,000
$1,565,962
$1,580,087
1%
$4,614,268
$4,731,525
3%
$1,400,000 $1,000,000 $800,000
TOTALS
$1,047,491
$1,198,416
$1,374,601
$1,512,920
$600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $2012
2013
Average List Price
10%
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
395
318
261
199
-24%
$1 - $3 MILLION
179
215
231
273
18%
$3 MILLION AND UP
19
26
36
40
11%
593
559
528
512
-3%
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$258,610,232
$224,347,302
$197,938,497
$153,989,985
-22%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$280,982,418
$329,776,445
$361,737,272
$431,363,816
19%
$81,569,470
$115,791,000
$166,113,638
$189,261,000
14%
$621,162,120
$669,914,747
$725,789,407
$774,614,801
7%
TOTALS
(2015 v 2014)
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 2012
2013
2014
2015
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$900,000,000 $800,000,000 $700,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000
$3 MILLION AND UP
TOTALS
3
$200,000,000 $100,000,000 $2012
2013
2014
2015
MILL VALLEY
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Mill Valley, about 14 miles north of San Francisco, is located on the western and northern shores of Richardson Bay. Mill Valley is known for being a town with a strong artistic heritage, with its many art galleries and town sponsorship of the Mill Valley Film Festival, which is part of the California Film Institute. The combination of Mill Valleyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s idyllic location beneath Mount Tamalpais and its ease of access to San Francisco has made it a popular home for many commuters.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE UP TO $1 MILLION $1 - $3 MILLION
2012
2013
2014
2015
$731,583
$780,590
$839,625
$1,661,292
$1,530,442
$1,578,414
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$2,000,000
$867,600
3%
$1,500,000
$1,646,675
4%
$1,000,000 $500,000
$3 MILLION AND UP
$3,700,000
$3,534,167
$3,972,200
$3,476,591
-12%
$2012
TOTALS
$1,260,410
$1,414,073
$1,580,533
1,804,859
2013
Average List Price
14%
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE UP TO $1 MILLION
2012
2013
2014
2015
41
30
16
10
% CHANGE
100
(2015 v 2014)
90
-38%
70
80 60
48
54
49
57
16%
1
6
5
11
120%
90
90
70
78
11%
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$29,994,917
$23,417,700
$13,434,000
$1 - $3 MILLION
$79,742,000
$82,643,850
$3 MILLION AND UP
$3,700,000 $113,436,917
$1 - $3 MILLION $3 MILLION AND UP
50 40 30 20 10
TOTALS
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$160,000,000
$8,676,000
-35%
$120,000,000
$77,342,285
$93,860,500
21%
$21,205,000
$19,861,000
$38,242,500
93%
$127,266,550
$110,637,285
$140,779,000
27%
$140,000,000
$100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $-
TOTALS
SERVING MARIN COUNTY AND SAN FRANCISCO sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco
2012
2013
2014
2015
4
ROSS and KENTFIELD
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
The scenic residential towns of Ross and Kentfield, with their small-town feel, tree-covered hills, winding creeks, graciously landscaped streets and gardens, serve as an ideal oasis for both locals and visitors alike. Ross is located just north of San Francisco and is bordered by Kentfield and Greenbrae to the east. Kentfield is home to the main campus for the College of Marin, which is well known for its theatre department.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
$784,071
$835,000
$965,000
$835,000
-13%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,856,556
$1,956,385
$1,876,395
$1,775,846
-5%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,317,434
$6,698,333
$5,196,875
$5,624,800
8%
TOTALS
$2,225,635 $2,844,020
$2,792,554
$3,340,375
20%
UP TO $1 MILLION
(2015 v 2014)
$4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $2012
2013
Average List Price
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
7
4
1
$1 - $3 MILLION
18
17
$3 MILLION AND UP
8
6
% CHANGE
35
(2015 v 2014)
30
1
0%
25
19
13
-32%
8
10
25%
20
TOTALS
33
27
28
24
-14%
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$5,488,500
$3,340,000
$965,000
$835,000
-13%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$33,418,000
$33,258,549
$35,651,500
$23,086,000
-35%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$34,539,470
$40,190,000
$41,575,000
$56,248,000
35%
TOTALS
$73,445,970
$76,788,549
$78,191,500
$80,169,000
3%
15 10 5 2012
2013
2014
2015
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$82,000,000 $80,000,000 $78,000,000 $76,000,000 $74,000,000
5
$72,000,000 $70,000,000 2012
2013
2014
2015
SAUSALITO
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES The waterfront town of Sausalito is located just across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco. The charming town offers an array of boutique shops, art studios and galleries, restaurants and outdoor cafes and bistros, many with incredible views of the San Francisco Bay and city skyline. Sausalito is adjacent to the protected areas of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, a popular camping and tourist destination.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$830,500
$719,500
$700,333
$555,000
-21%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,537,800
$1,602,100
$1,509,929
$1,908,143
26%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$5,930,000
n/a
$3,400,000
$6,500,000
91%
(2015 v 2014)
$2,500,000 $2,000,000
TOTALS
$1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $2012
$1,699,964
$1,349,929
$1,480,000
$2,110,563
2013
Average List Price
43%
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE UP TO $1 MILLION
2012
2013
2014
2015
3
6
3
1
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
25 20
-67% 15
$1 - $3 MILLION $3 MILLION AND UP
TOTALS
10
15
14
14
0%
1
-
1
1
0%
14
21
18
16
-11%
10 5 2012
2013
2014
2015
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$2,491,500
$4,317,000
$2,101,000
$555,000
-74%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$15,378,000
$24,031,500
$21,139,000
$26,714,000
26%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$5,930,000
n/a
$3,400,000
$6,500,000
91%
TOTALS
$23,799,500
$28,348,500
$26,640,000
$33,769,000
27%
SERVING MARIN COUNTY AND SAN FRANCISCO sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco
(2015 v 2014)
$40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $2012
2013
2014
2015
6
TIBURON and BELVEDERE
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Tiburon occupies most of the Tiburon Peninsula, while the smaller city of Belvedere occupies the southeast portion of the Peninsula. Tiburon is a popular town amongst commuters and tourists, linked by ferry services to San Francisco. The town offers a high concentration of restaurants and boutiques and is the closest mainland point to Angel Island. Belvedere is home to many properties renowned for their spectacular views of the Bay Area, Angel Island, San Francisco, Sausalito, the Golden Gate Bridge and Mount Tamalpais.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
$837,500
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,800,801
$1,778,700
$2,001,380
$2,070,087
3%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,137,500
$4,152,625
$4,623,681
$5,084,700
10%
UP TO $1 MILLION
(2015 v 2014)
$4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $2012
TOTALS
$2,253,963
$2,456,964
$3,024,717 $3,260,066
2013
Average List Price
8%
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
2
n/a
n/a
$1 - $3 MILLION
27
20
$3 MILLION AND UP
8
TOTALS
37
% CHANGE
70
(2015 v 2014)
60
n/a
n/a
50
25
23
-8%
8
16
15
-6%
28
41
38
-7%
40 30 20 10 2012
2013
2014
2015
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$1,675,000
n/a
n/a
$1 - $3 MILLION
$48,621,625
$35,574,000
$3 MILLION AND UP
$33,100,000
TOTALS
$83,396,625
% CHANGE
$140,000,000
(2015 v 2014)
$120,000,000
n/a
n/a
$100,000,000
$50,034,499
$47,612,000
-5%
$33,221,000
$73,978,888
$76,270,500
3%
$68,795,000
$124,013,387
$123,882,500
0%
$80,000,000
7
$60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $2012
2013
2014
2015
SAN RAFAEL
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Sitting in the heart of Marin County, San Rafael is one of the oldest and largest cities in the county. The cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rich history can be seen from the many well-preserved classic homes found in each neighborhood. Residents and visitors alike can enjoy a plethora of shopping and entertainment in the downtown area, or bask in nature on the hiking trails, lakes and views atop nearby Mount Tamalpais.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE UP TO $1 MILLION $1 - $3 MILLION
2012
2013
2014
2015
$665,438
$739,369
$795,898
$826,418
$1,330,003
$1,427,968
$1,304,093
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$1,400,000
4%
$1,000,000
$1,448,419
11%
n/a
n/a
$1,200,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000
$3 MILLION AND UP
TOTALS
n/a $754,395
$4,137,500 $4,400,000 $973,893
$975,654
$1,163,097
$2012
2013
Average List Price
19%
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
110
87
83
$1 - $3 MILLION
17
31
127
% CHANGE
130
(2015 v 2014)
125
50
-40%
120
35
59
69%
2
1
-
-100%
120
119
109
-8%
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$73,198,142
$64,325,140
$66,059,570
$41,320,910
-37%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$22,610,055
$44,267,000
$45,643,240
$85,456,700
87%
n/a
$8,275,000
$4,400,000
n/a
-100%
95,808,197
116,867,140
116,102,810
126,777,610
9%
$3 MILLION AND UP
TOTALS
115 110 105 100 2012
2013
2014
2015
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000
$3 MILLION AND UP
TOTALS
SERVING MARIN COUNTY AND SAN FRANCISCO sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco
60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 2012
2013
2014
2015
8
FEATURED PROPERTIES
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BOLINAS Web ID: 0087599 | $4,500,000 A splendid estate located on over 10 acres of land overlooking the Pacific Ocean and Bolinas Lagoon. With eight buildings on the property including the main house, cottages, and workshops, this property offers numerous entertainment possibilities. Ronald Parks | 415.407.7979
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