Belvedere, CA
Marin County Market Update Fourth Quarter 2016 SAN FRANCISCO BROKERAGE 117 Greenwich Street San Francisco, CA 94111 t. 415.901.1700
sothebyshomes.com
All data within this document is pulled from the Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (BAREIS)
A MESSAGE FROM: Jeffrey G. Gibson Senior Vice President and Brokerage Manager Impacted by sparse inventory in the fourth quarter of 2016, total sales in Marin County declined slightly year over year, along with average sales prices, according to the Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (BAREIS). The average sales price throughout the County fell 6 percent from $1.5M in Q4 2015 to $1.4M in Q4 2016. The average sales price for a single-family home valued above $3 million fell to $4.2M in Q4 2016, an 11 percent drop from Q4 2015. The market remained healthy, however, for sales of singlefamily homes under $1 million, which saw a modest 3 percent increase, from $770K in Q4 2015 to $799K in Q4 2016.
SAN FRANCISCO BROKERAGE 117 Greenwich Street San Francisco, CA 94111 t. 415.901.1700
Inventory was in short supply throughout the County, as the number of closed sales throughout Marin County fell 7 percent, from 512 units sold in Q4 2015 to 477 units sold in Q4 2016; the upper end of the market saw the greatest drop. With the decrease in average sales prices and number of sales, the total sale volume fell to $680M in Q4 2016, a 12 percent decline compared to Q4 2015.
Q4 AT A GLANCE Q3-2016MARIN MARINCOUNTY COUNTYVOLUME VOLUME Q4-2016 18%
22%
-6 %
The average sales price of a single family home was down to $1,425,115 in Q4 2016
477 units
The total number of single family homes sold— down 7% compared to Q4 2015
< $1.0M $1.0M - $3.0M $3.0M and up
60%
Q4-2016 Q3-2016MILL MILLVALLEY VALLEYVOLUME VOLUME
+16
%
59 units
The average sales price grew for single family homes valued above $3 million to $4,024,875
16%
6% < $1.0M $1.0M - $3.0M
The total number of single family homes sold— down 24% compared to Q4 2015
$3.0M and up
78%
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SIGNIFICANT SALES
left to right from top to bottom:
STINSON BEACH, CA | $9,500,000 ROSS, CA | $8,175,000 BELVEDERE, CA | $5,500,000 BELVEDERE, CA | $5,000,000 BELVEDERE, CA | $4,100,000 HILLSBOROUGH, CA | $3,650,000 TIBURON, CA | $3,365,000 KENTFIELD, CA | $3,125,000 SAUSALITO, CA | $2,750,000 sothebyshomes.com
MARIN COUNTY
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco lies Marin County, an area renowned for its natural beauty. Marin County is home to Muir Woods redwood forest, the Marin Headlands, Stinson Beach, the Point Reyes National Seashore and Mount Tamalpais. Most of the countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population resides on the eastern side, with the interior of the county consisting of large areas of agricultural and open space.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
$705,495
$758,385
$773,819
$798,714
3%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,533,844
$1,565,962
$1,580,087
$1,562,474
-1%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,453,500
$4,614,268
$4,731,525
$4,228,092
-11%
UP TO $1 MILLION
(2016 v 2015)
$1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000
TOTALS
$1,198,416
$1,374,601
$1,512,920
$1,425,115
$600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $2013
2014
Average List Price
-6%
2015
2016
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $1 MILLION
318
261
199
187
-6%
$1 - $3 MILLION
215
231
273
261
-4%
$3 MILLION AND UP
26
36
40
29
-28%
559
528
512
477
-7%
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $1 MILLION
$224,347,302
$197,938,497
$153,989,985
$149,359,448
-3%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$329,776,445
$361,737,272
$431,363,816
$407,805,739
-5%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$115,791,000
$166,113,638
$189,261,000
$122,614,675
-35%
TOTALS
(2016 v 2015)
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$800,000,000 $780,000,000 $760,000,000 $740,000,000 $720,000,000 $700,000,000 $680,000,000 $660,000,000 $640,000,000 $620,000,000
TOTALS
$669,914,747
$725,789,407
$774,614,801
SERVING MARIN COUNTY AND SAN FRANCISCO sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco
$679,779,862
-12%
$600,000,000 2013
2014
2015
2016
4
MILL VALLEY
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Mill Valley, about 14 miles north of San Francisco, is located on the western and northern shores of Richardson Bay. Mill Valley is known for being a town with a strong artistic heritage, with its many art galleries and town sponsorship of the Mill Valley Film Festival, which is part of the California Film Institute. The combination of Mill Valleyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s idyllic location beneath Mount Tamalpais and its ease of access to San Francisco has made it a popular home for many commuters.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
$780,590
$839,625
$867,600
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,530,442
$1,578,414
$3 MILLION AND UP
$3,534,167
$3,972,200
UP TO $1 MILLION
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$2,000,000
$833,643
-4%
$1,500,000
$1,646,675
$1,667,681
1%
$3,476,591
$4,024,875
16%
$1,000,000
TOTALS
$1,414,073
$1,580,533
$1,804,859
$1,728,537
$500,000 $2013
2014
Average List Price
-4%
2015
2016
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
30
16
10
7
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
100 90 80
UP TO $1 MILLION
-30%
70 60
54
49
57
48
-16%
6
5
11
4
-64%
90
70
78
59
-24%
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $1 MILLION
$23,417,700
$13,434,000
$8,676,000
$1 - $3 MILLION
$82,643,850
$77,342,285
$3 MILLION AND UP
$21,205,000
$19,861,000
TOTALS
$127,266,550
$1 - $3 MILLION $3 MILLION AND UP
50 40 30 20 10
TOTALS
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$160,000,000
$5,835,500
-33%
$120,000,000
$93,860,500
$80,048,702
-15%
$38,242,500
$16,099,500
-58%
$110,637,285 $140,779,000
$101,983,702
-28%
$140,000,000
$100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $-
5
2013
2014
2015
2016
ROSS and KENTFIELD
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
The scenic residential towns of Ross and Kentfield, with their small-town feel, tree-covered hills, winding creeks, graciously landscaped streets and gardens, serve as an ideal oasis for both locals and visitors alike. Ross is located just north of San Francisco and is bordered by Kentfield and Greenbrae to the east. Kentfield is home to the main campus for the College of Marin, which is well known for its theatre department.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $1 MILLION
$835,000
$965,000
$835,000
$900,000
8%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,956,385
$1,876,395
$1,775,846
$1,980,451
12%
(2016 v 2015)
$4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000
$3 MILLION AND UP
$6,698,333
$5,196,875
$5,624,800
$4,318,669
-23%
TOTALS
$2,844,020
$2,792,554
$3,340,375
$2,778,991
-17%
$1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $2013
2014
Average List Price
2015
2016
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $1 MILLION
4
1
1
$1 - $3 MILLION
17
19
$3 MILLION AND UP
6
TOTALS
27
% CHANGE
29
(2016 v 2015)
28
1
0%
27
13
15
15%
8
10
9
-10%
28
24
25
4%
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $1 MILLION
$3,340,000
$965,000
$835,000
$900,000
8%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$33,258,549
$35,651,500
$23,086,000
$29,706,760
29%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$40,190,000
$41,575,000
$56,248,000
$38,868,025
-31%
TOTALS
$76,788,549
$78,191,500
$80,169,000
$69,474,785
-13%
26 25 24 23 22 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$82,000,000 $80,000,000 $78,000,000 $76,000,000 $74,000,000 $72,000,000 $70,000,000
SERVING MARIN COUNTY AND SAN FRANCISCO sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco
$68,000,000 $66,000,000 $64,000,000 2013
2014
2015
2016
6
SAUSALITO
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
The waterfront town of Sausalito is located just across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco. The charming town offers an array of boutique shops, art studios and galleries, restaurants and outdoor cafes and bistros, many with incredible views of the San Francisco Bay and city skyline. Sausalito is adjacent to the protected areas of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, a popular camping and tourist destination.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
$719,500
$700,333
$555,000
-
n/a
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,602,100
$1,509,929
$1,908,143
$1,960,705
3%
$3 MILLION AND UP
-
$3,400,000
$6,500,000
$4,734,150
-27%
$1,349,929
$1,480,000
$2,110,563
$2,191,825
4%
UP TO $1 MILLION
(2016 v 2015)
$2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $2013
TOTALS
2014
Average List Price
2015
2016
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
6
3
1
-
UP TO $1 MILLION
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
25 20
-100% 15
$1 - $3 MILLION $3 MILLION AND UP
TOTALS
15
14
14
11
-21%
-
1
1
1
0%
21
18
16
12
-25%
10 5 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE UP TO $1 MILLION
2013
2014
2015
2016
$4,317,000
$2,101,000
$555,000
-
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015) -100%
$40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000
$1 - $3 MILLION $3 MILLION AND UP
TOTALS
7
$24,031,500
$21,139,000
$26,714,000
$21,567,750
-19%
$20,000,000 $15,000,000
$28,348,500
$3,400,000 $26,640,000
$6,500,000 $33,769,000
$4,734,150 $26,301,900
-27% -22%
$10,000,000 $5,000,000 $2013
2014
2015
2016
TIBURON and BELVEDERE
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Tiburon occupies most of the Tiburon Peninsula, while the smaller city of Belvedere occupies the southeast portion of the Peninsula. Tiburon is a popular town amongst commuters and tourists, linked by ferry services to San Francisco. The town offers a high concentration of restaurants and boutiques and is the closest mainland point to Angel Island. Belvedere is home to many properties renowned for their spectacular views of the Bay Area, Angel Island, San Francisco, Sausalito, the Golden Gate Bridge and Mount Tamalpais.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
-
-
-
-
n/a
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,778,700
$2,001,380
$2,070,087
$2,061,500
0%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,152,625
$4,623,681
$5,084,700
$4,249,444
-16%
UP TO $1 MILLION
(2016 v 2015)
$4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $2013
TOTALS
$2,456,964
$3,024,717 $3,260,066
$2,956,568
2014
Average List Price
-9%
2015
2016
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
-
-
-
20
25
8 28
UP TO $1 MILLION
% CHANGE
70
(2016 v 2015)
60
-
n/a
50
23
13
-43%
16
15
9
-40%
41
38
22
-42%
40
$1 - $3 MILLION $3 MILLION AND UP
TOTALS
30 20 10 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
-
-
-
$1 - $3 MILLION
$35,574,000
$50,034,499
$3 MILLION AND UP
$33,221,000
TOTALS
$68,795,000
UP TO $1 MILLION
% CHANGE
$140,000,000
(2016 v 2015)
$120,000,000
-
n/a
$100,000,000
$47,612,000
$26,799,500
-44%
$73,978,888
$76,270,500
$38,245,000
-50%
$124,013,387
$123,882,500
$65,044,500
-47%
$80,000,000
SERVING MARIN COUNTY AND SAN FRANCISCO sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco
$60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $2013
2014
2015
2016
8
SAN RAFAEL
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Sitting in the heart of Marin County, San Rafael is one of the oldest and largest cities in the county. The cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rich history can be seen from the many well-preserved classic homes found in each neighborhood. Residents and visitors alike can enjoy a plethora of shopping and entertainment in the downtown area, or bask in nature on the hiking trails, lakes and views atop nearby Mount Tamalpais.
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $1 MILLION
$739,369
$795,898
$826,418
$825,934
0%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,427,968
$1,304,093
$1,448,419
$1,346,233
-7%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,137,500
$4,400,000
-
-
n/a
(2016 v 2015)
$1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $2013
TOTALS
$973,893
$975,654
$1,163,097
1,074,966
2014
Average List Price
-8%
2015
2016
Average Sales Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $1 MILLION
87
83
50
61
22%
$1 - $3 MILLION
31
35
59
56
-5%
$3 MILLION AND UP
2
1
-
-
n/a
120
119
109
117
7%
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $1 MILLION
$64,325,140
$66,059,570
$41,320,910
$50,381,995
22%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$44,267,000
$45,643,240
$85,456,700
$75,389,072
-12%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$8,275,000
$4,400,000
-
-
n/a
(2016 v 2015)
122 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104
TOTALS
102 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
128,000,000 126,000,000 124,000,000 122,000,000 120,000,000 118,000,000 116,000,000 114,000,000 112,000,000
TOTALS
9
116,867,140
116,102,810
126,777,610
125,771,067
-1%
110,000,000 2013
2014
2015
2016
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