Q3 | 2020
New York City
Market Update T H E
F I E L D
T E A M
GLOBAL PORTFOLIO ADVISORS
1SPS6D.com
1
New York City Managers Message
We continued to keep the health and safety of our community as our top priority as we move into the fourth quarter. We are conducting in-person showings, following the CDC guidelines, and our consumers continue to become more comfortable in the virtual space and our agents are ready with the technology and resources to meet them there whether buying, selling, or renting. We invite you to review a summary of sales activity in the New York City area during the third quarter of 2020, based on closed production from July - September 2020. ACRIS and Property Shark reports the market data in the following pages for this quarter, which is compared here to the same period of 2019. Heading into the final quarter of 2020, we wanted to bring your attention to a few important indicators: •
There was a 28% increase in the number of listings on the market compared to Q3 2019, and an increase of 57% compared to Q2 2020 which justifies a strong buyers’ market and the greatest opportunity to purchase in Manhattan since 2009.
•
The number of closed sales remains down significantly year-over-year, but is increasing monthly as contracts continue to be signed.
•
The energy of the city is returning to normal as New Yorkers return from summer break for work and school.
We are always committed to providing the highest quality service and will continue to support our clients with a suite of virtual marketing tools that are effective with today’s buyers. We look forward to working with you to meet your real estate needs. If you have any questions about the New York City market, please reach out to us or any of our associates.
DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
Diane Levine, Executive Vice President of Sales - NYC 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | New York, NY 10010 | 212.431.2440 EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
Marissa Ghesquiere, Senior Vice President of Sales - NYC 650 Madison Avenue | New York, NY 10022 | 212.606.7660 SOTHEBYSREALTY.COM
30 Park Pace, 50D
All New York City
Luxury Market
04 Market Overview
09 Luxury Market
05 Market Snapshot | All Areas 06 Inventory | Absorption Rate 07 Days on Market | Listing Discount
Ownership Type Analysis
Neighborhood Analysis
10 Condos
14 Upper East Side
12 Co-ops
14 Upper West Side 15 Midtown 15 Uptown 16 Downtown 16 FiDi | Battery Park 17 Total Sales 17 Average Sales Price
3
240ParkAveSouthPH.com
Market Overview {Q3 | 2020}
MANHATTAN
Looking at the third quarter, we continued to see Covid-19’s profound impact on Manhattan real estate. Residential sales fell 44% year-over-year, driven by a 47% decline in sales below $3M and an 18% decline in sales between $3M and $10M. Contracts signed in the third quarter were up 167% compared to Q2 2020, when the shelter in place order was in full effect. The average sales price in the third quarter of 2020 increased 32% year-over-year from $1.69M in Q3 2019 to $2.22M in Q3 2020. It is important to note that this pricing trend is not an accurate representation of the current market conditions in Manhattan, as we saw several high priced units that had been in contract for 12 or more months in new development projects close this quarter, skewing the average price of sold properties higher. The median price of sold properties was down 22% from Q3 2019 and is more in line with the general pricing conditions in Manhattan.
1,661 Closed Sales
-44
%
Change in Closed Sales {2020 v 2019}
2.22M
$
Average Sales Price
+32
%
Change in Average Sales Price {2020 v 2019}
The ASP compares 2020 to 2019 and can NOT be construed to indicate changes in pricing due to Covid.
Number of Closed Sales vs. Inventory
Average / Median Sales Price
8,000 $3,000,000
7,000 $2, 500 ,000
6,000 5,000
$2, 000,000
4,000
$1,500,0 00
3,000 $1,0 00,000
2,000 $50 0,000
1,000 -
$-
Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Q2:19 Q3:19 Q4:19 Q1:20 Q2:20 Q3:20 # of Closed Sales
# of Closed Sales
Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Q2:19 Q3:19 Q4:19 Q1:20 Q2:20 Q3:20
Inventory
Inventory
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Number of Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
{2020 v 2019}
-47%
1%
-8%
3Q:20
1,401
$1.13M
$922K
3Q:19
2,655
$1.12M
$1.00M
{2020 v 2019}
-18%
-2%
-2%
3Q:20
225
$4.75M
$4.40M
3Q:19
274
$4.85M
$4.50M
{2020 v 2019}
19%
25%
4%
3Q:20
34
$30.02M
$16.07M
3Q:19
29
$24.01M
$15.40M
{2020 v 2019}
-44%
32%
-22%
3Q:20
1,661
$2.22M
$1.05M
3Q:19
2,958
$1.69M
$1.35M
UNDER
$3 Million
BETWEEN
$3 - 10 Million
OVER
$10 Million
ALL
Price Points
Overview
/ New York City Q3 Market Update
5
Inventory All New York City
5%
3% 1%
Number of Active 9/30/20 Listings
6% 38%
3,634 2,569 1,867 603 514 265 107
20%
9,559
27% Under $1M
$1-2M
$2-4M
4-6M
6-10M
10-20M
Under $1 Million $1 - 2 Million $2 - 4 Million $4 - 6 Million $6 - 10 Million $10 - 20 Million $20 Million and Above TOTAL
$20M+
CONDOS & CO-OPS (based on 12 months of closed sales 9/30/2019 - 9/30/2020)
The historic absorption range of equilibrium for the New York City market area is 6-8 months. As the market begins to show signs of normalizing, the built up inventory had a dramatic impact on the absorption rate following the pause during the second quarter. With 9,559 active units currently on the market coupled with the decline in sales over the last 3-months, the absorption rate has pushed to 17.3 months and reflects the first time in recent history that the absorption rate has pushed into double digits. This statistic means that it would take more than 17 months to absorb the active inventory that is currently on the market based upon the rate of sales over the last 3-months. The top four price points above $4M currently have more than a 19 months worth of active inventory. There was a 28% increase in the number of listings on the market compared to Q3 2019, and an increase of 57% compare to Q2 2020. The largest number of active listings were in the second quarter of 2009 when there were more than 10,000 listing on the market.
45 40 35
Absorption Rate
30 25 20
Line of Equilibrium
15
Absorption
10 5 0
Under $1M
$1-2M
$2-4M
4-6M
6-10M
10-20M
$20M+
The absorption rate isAbsorption calculated by taking total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of Line the of Equilibrium closed sales over the 12-month period.
Average Days on Market Listing Discount
All New York City
Average Days on Market Listing Discount
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
Q4 2019
Q1 2020
Q2 2020
Q3 2020
112
98
112
131
113
112
127
152
154
-4.6%
-4.6%
-5.1%
-5.3%
-5.4%
-4.9%
-5.2%
-5.8%
-6.8%
Average Days on Market vs. Listing Discount -8.0%
160
-7.0 %
140
-6.0%
120
-5. 0%
10 0
-4.0%
80
-3.0%
60
-2.0%
40
-1.0 %
20
Q3:18
Q4:18
Q1:19
Q2:19
Q3:19
Q4:19
Q1:20
Q2:20
Q3:20
0.0%
0
Listing Discount
Average Days on Market
Average Days on Market
Listing Discount
Overview
/ New York City Q3 Market Update
7
PHOTO BY GIAMMARCO BOSCARO ON UNSPLASH
w i n e i s a n e v e r- e n d i n g j o u r n e y. sothebyswine.com
AUCTION • RETAIL • ADVISORY New York Hong Kong London
AUCTION • RETAIL • ADVISORY New York Hong Kong London
The Luxury Market All New York City Co-Ops & Condos Over $10M
Closed Sales Count, Average Sales Price & Highest Sales Price
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
Q4 2019
Q1 2020
Q2 2020
Q3 2020
42
63
48
109
29
28
39
18
34
Average Sales Price
$17.62M
$22.08M
$24.32M
$16.94M
$24.01M
$32.76M
$18.01M
$22.86M
30.02M
Highest Sales Price
$43.50M
$73.80M
$239.96M
$51.55M
$65.75M
$92.74M
$52.19M
$56.26M 99.90M
# of Closed Sales
A strong end to the third quarter of 2020 which saw 34 luxury sales, up 19% compared to Q3 2019. All of the sold properties were in condominium buildings, with a significant portion of them being new development product in contract for 12 months or more. Average prices increased 25% year-over-year from $24.0M in Q3 2019 to $30.0M in Q3 2020. The highest recorded sale in Q3 2020 was $99.9M at 220 Central Park South after originally being listed in September 2016. S OT H EBYS R EA LTY.C O M
Average Sales Price vs. # of Closed Sales $35,000,000
120
$30,000,000
100
$25,000,000
80
$20,000,000
60
$15,000,000
40
$10,000,000
20
$5,000,000 $0
Q3:18
Q4:18
Q1:19
Q2:19
# of Closed Sales # of Closed Sales
Q3:19
Q4:19
Q1:20
Q2:20
Q3:20
Average Price Average SalesSales Price
The Luxury Market
/ New York City Q3 Market Update
9
Condos {Q3 | 2020}
MANHATTAN
The 733 closed condo sales this quarter reflected a 41% decrease in the number of sold units compared to the 1,239 condo sales in Q3 2019. The average sales price increased 45% year-over-year to nearly $3.6M this quarter. The median sales price increased by 23% to $1.83M compared to $1.48M in Q3 2019. The average price per square foot increased by 20% to $2,428/sf compared to $2,015/sf in Q3 2019.
733 Closed Sales
-41
%
Change in Closed Sales {2020 v 2019}
3.56M
$
Average Sales Price
+45
%
Change in Average Sale Price {2020 v 2019}
TheParkImperial64.com
Number of Closed Sales
Average / Median Sales Price
2,000
$4,000,000
1,800
$3,500,000
1,600
$3,000,000
1,400
$2,500,000
1,200
$2,000,000
1,000 $1,500,000 800 $1,000,000 600 $500,000
400
$0
200 -
Average Sales Price
Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Q2:19 Q3:19 Q4:19 Q1:20 Q2:20 Q3:20
Median Sales Price
Number of Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Average Price/Sq. Ft.
{2020 v 2019}
-48%
5%
9%
-2%
3Q:20
529
$1.44M
$1.38M
$1,429
3Q:19
1,011
$1.38M
$1.26M
$1,454
{2020 v 2019}
-17%
-6%
-14%
-9%
3Q:20
169
$4.78M
$4.09M
$2,146
3Q:19
204
$5.10M
$4.76M
$2,363
{2020 v 2019}
44%
20%
-18%
14%
3Q:20
34
$30.02M
$18.00M
$6,396
3Q:19
24
$25.04M
$21.88M
$5,622
{2020 v 2019}
-41%
45%
23%
20%
3Q:20
733
$3.56M
$1.83M
$2,428
3Q:19
1,239
$2.45M
$1.48M
$2,015
UNDER
$3 Million
BETWEEN
$3 - 10 Million
ABOVE
$10 Million
ALL
Price Points
Condos
/ New York City Q3 Market Update
11
Co-Ops {Q3 | 2020}
MANHATTAN
The 928 closed Co-Op sales this quarter reflected a 46% decline in the number of sold units compared to the 1,719 Co-Op sales in Q3 2019. The average sales price increased marginally by 2% year-overyear to $1.16M in Q3 2020 from $1.14M in Q3 2019. The median sales price also fell 11% to $759,500 compared to $850,000 in Q3 2019.
928 Closed Sales
-46
%
Change in Closed Sales {2020 v 2019}
1.16M
$
Average Sales Price
+2
%
Change in Average Sales Price {2020 v 2019}
129DuanePH.com
Number of Closed Sales
Average / Median Sales Price
2,000
$1,600,000
1,800
$1,400,000
1,600
$1,200,000
1,400
$1,000,000
1,200 $800,000 1,000 $600,000 800 $400,000 600 $200,000
400
$0
200 -
Average Sales Price
Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Q2:19 Q3:19 Q4:19 Q1:20 Q2:20 Q3:20
Median Sales Price
Number of Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
{2020 v 2019}
-47%
-1%
-2%
3Q:20
872
$942K
$750K
3Q:19
1,644
$956K
$765K
{2020 v 2019}
-21%
13%
21%
3Q:20
55
$4.65M
$4.30M
3Q:19
70
$4.12M
$3.56M
{2020 v 2019}
-100%
N/A
N/A
3Q:20
0
N/A
N/A
3Q:19
5
$19.06M
$10.50M
{2020 v 2019}
-46%
2%
-11%
3Q:20
928
$1.16M
$760K
3Q:19
1,719
$1.14M
$850K
UNDER
$3 Million
BETWEEN
$3 - 10 Million
ABOVE
$10 Million
ALL
Price Points
Co-Ops
/ New York City Q3 Market Update
13
NEW YORK CITY
Neighborhood Highlights Upper East Side | north of 58th street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue CONDOS
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
Closed Sales
103
171
-40%
Average Sales Price
$2.58M
$2.17M
19%
Median Sales Price
$1.56M
$1.37M
14%
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
285
456
-38%
Average Sales Price
$1.47M
$1.44
2%
Median Sales Price
$953M
$950M
0%
COOPS Closed Sales
Upper West Side | north of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, CPW to Riverside Drive (including CPS) CONDOS
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
Closed Sales
202
194
4%
Average Sales Price
$5.94M
$3.94M
51%
Median Sales Price
$2.14M
$1.58M
36%
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
192
371
-48%
Average Sales Price
$1.28M
$1.27M
0%
Median Sales Price
$780K
$930M
-16%
COOPS Closed Sales
Midtown | north of 34th Street and south of 57th Street CONDOS
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
Closed Sales
88
186
-52%
Average Sales Price
$2.47M
$1.39M
78%
Median Sales Price
$1.05M
$1.08M
-3%
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
139
225
-38%
Average Sales Price
$668K
$773K
-14%
Median Sales Price
$600K
$640K
-6%
COOPS Closed Sales
Uptown | north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West Side CONDOS
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
Closed Sales
54
105
-49%
Average Sales Price
$1.14M
$916K
25%
Median Sales Price
$904K
$825K
10%
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
64
177
-64%
Average Sales Price
$576K
$583K
-1%
Median Sales Price
$499K
$500K
0%
COOPS Closed Sales
Neighborhood Highlights
/ New York City Q3 Market Update
15
NEW YORK CITY
Neighborhood Highlights Downtown | South of 34th Street through TriBeCa CONDOS
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
Closed Sales
208
508
-59%
Average Sales Price
$3.44M
$2.86M
20%
Median Sales Price
$2.25M
$2.05M
10%
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
238
474
-50%
Average Sales Price
$1.16M
$1.13M
2%
Median Sales Price
$825K
$835K
-1%
COOPS Closed Sales
Financial District / Battery Park CONDOS
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
Closed Sales
76
75
-35%
Average Sales Price
$1.84M
$1.23M
-12%
Median Sales Price
$1.90M
$930K
-12%
Q3 2020
Q3 2019
% Change
9
16
-35%
Average Sales Price
$1.11M
$832K
-12%
Median Sales Price
$1.03M
$808K
-12%
COOPS Closed Sales
Total Number of Sales by Neighborhood 1,600 1,400 1,200
Upper East Side
1,000
Upper West Side
800
Midtown
600
Downtown
400
Uptown
200
FiDi / Battery Park
0
Q3:18
Q4:18
Q1:19
Q2:19
Q3:19
Q4:19
Q1:20
Upper East Side
Upper West Side
Midtown
UPPER MANHATTAN
Downtown
FiDi/BPC
Q3:20
Q2:20
Average Sales Price by Neighborhood $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000
Upper East Side
$2,500,000
Upper West Side Midtown
$2,000,000
Downtown
$1,500,000
Uptown
$1,000,000
FiDi / Battery Park
$500,000 $0
Q3:18 Upper East Side
Q4:18
Q1:19
Upper West Side
Q2:19
Q3:19 Midtown
Q4:19 Uptown
Q1:20
Q2:20
Downtown
Neighborhood Highlights
Q3:20 Fidi/BPC
/ New York City Q3 Market Update
17
1035fifthave12de.com
The Field Team
NikkiField.com
EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
212.606.7660 © Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Figures in this report are based on publicly reported closed sales information via the Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS) and PropertyShark, an independent research firm. This material is based upon information which we consider reliable but because it has been supplied by third parties, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should be relied upon as such. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal Housing Opportunity.