Q4 | 2018
New York City
Market Update
Web: 01310715
All New York City
Luxury Market
04 Market Overview
09 Luxury Market
05 Market Snapshot | All Areas 06 Inventory | Absorption Rate 07 Days on Market | Listing Discount
Ownership Type Analysis
Neighborhood Analysis
10 Condos
14 Upper East Side
12 Co-ops
14 Upper West Side 15 Midtown 15 Uptown 16 Downtown 16 FiDi | Battery Park 17 Total Sales 17 Average Sales Price
New York City Market Overview
The market adjustment continued through the 4th quarter with fewer closed sales. The indication is that buyers maintain an advantage and seller price expectations are being recalculated. Buyers remain cautious about affordability and the cost of ownership with the removal of certain tax benefits. While the local economy is strong, financial markets have been volatile and there are worries that positive economic conditions may not continue. In certain price segments and market areas, sellers have capitulated to new market conditions and prices have stabilized. With sellers offering more negotiability; additional resale listings entering the market; and, new construction inventory expected to arrive this year, the market does present attractive buying opportunities. The 2,599 closed sales this quarter were a 6% decline from prior year. There was a modest 3% increase in the average sale price. The median sale price was reduced by 2% to $1,063,000. The under $3mil market made up 85% of all sales activity and posted 5% fewer sales than the prior year. This segment held flat year over year at an average sale price of $1.1M and a 2% decrease in the median sale price. In the $3mil-$10mil segment, sales declined 10% while the average and median price measures were up 10% and 7% respectively. Because of a wave of closings at 520 Park Ave and 220 CPS, the $10mil+ category reflected a 9% increase in the number of closed sales with a 21% rise in the average price and a 10% increase in the median price. However, this should not be signaled as strength in the top tier price segment as contracts at both of these new buildings were procured 1-2 years ago.
DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
Diane Levine, Brokerage Manager 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | New York, NY 10010 | 212.431.2440 EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
Marissa Ghesquiere, Brokerage Manager 38 E. 61st Street | New York, NY 10065 | 212.606.7784 WEST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
Diane Levine, Brokerage Manager 2244 Broadway | New York, NY 10024 | 212.579.9300 sothebyshomes.com/nyc © MMXIX Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material is based upon information which we consider reliable but because it has been supplied by third parties, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should be relied upon as such. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.
Web: 01310655
Number of Closed Sales vs. Inventory
Average / Median Sales Price
8000 $2,500,000
7000 6000
$2,000,000
5000 $1,500,000
4000 3000
$1,000, 000
2000 $500,000
1000 $0
0
Q1:17
Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 1Q:18 2Q:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 # of Closed Sales
# of Closed Sales
Inventory
Q3:17
Average Sales Price
Inventory
Average Sales Price
1Q:18
Q3:18
Median Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Number of Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
{2018 v 2017}
-5%
0%
-2%
4Q:18
2218
$1,102,000
$905,000
4Q:17
2343
$1,100,205
$925,000
{2018 v 2017}
-10%
10%
7%
4Q:18
322
$5,062,000
$4,500,000
4Q:17
356
$4,618,098
$4,200,000
{2018 v 2017}
9%
21%
10%
4Q:18
59
$22,167,000
$16,851,000
4Q:17
54
$18,373,617
$15,294,000
{2018 v 2017}
-6%
3%
-2%
4Q:18
2599
$1,983,734
$1,063,000
4Q:17
2753
$1,918,994
$1,082,000
UNDER
$3 Million
BETWEEN
$3 - 10 Million
OVER
$10 Million
ALL
Price Points
Overview
/ New York City Q4 Market Update
Inventory All New York City
2% 6%
4%
8%
35%
21%
24%
Number of Active Listings 2,315 Under $1 Million 1,541 $1 - 2 Million 1,389 $2 - 4 Million 516 $4 - 6 Million 419 $6 - 10 Million 256 $10 - 20 Million 105 $20 Million and Above
CONDOS & CO-OPS (based on 6 months of closed sales 07/01/2018-12/31/2018) While the overall Manhattan absorption rate is 6.8 months, properties priced more than $2mil have supply levels of 10 months or greater. This level of inventory is consistent with conditions that favor buyers and weaken pricing in all segments except for the two lowest price tiers (<$1mil and $1mil-$2mil). The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 6-9 months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6-month period. The top two price tiers above $10mil have more than a 1-year supply. This sustained oversupply condition at the top end signifies that this market segment continues to necessitate price discounts from sellers.
20 15
Absorption Rate
10
Line of Equilibrium 5
Absorbtion
0
< $1mil $1mil - > $2mil - > $4mil - >$6mil - > $10mil $20mil+ $2mil $4mil $6mil $10mil < $20mil
Average Days on Market Listing Discount
All New York City
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Average Days on Market
96
98
82
90
95
107
101
109
Listing Discount
3%
6%
4%
6%
4%
6%
6%
8%
Average Days on Market vs. Listing Discount 9%
120
8%
100
7% 6%
80
5%
60
4% 3%
40
2%
20
1% 0%
0
Q1:17
Q2:17
Q3:17
Q4:17
Average Days on Market
Q1:18
Q2:18
Q3:18
Q4:18
Listing Discount
Overview
/ New York City Q4 Market Update
PHOTO BY PAUL VAN COTTHEM ON UNSPLASH
w i n e i s a n e v e r- e n d i n g j o u r n e y. sothebyswine.com
AUCTION • RETAIL • ADVISORY New York Hong Kong London
The Luxury Market All New York City Co-Ops, Condos & Townhouses Over $10m
Total Volume by Price Point Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
 82
72
54
72
79
 75
59
Average Sales Price
$17,582,000
$16,525,000
$18,373,617
$15,747,000
$19,446,000
$18,046,000
$20,123,000
Highest Sales Price
$55,000,000 $44,000,000 $91,000,000 $35,000,000 $58,000,000 $58,000,000 $73,800,000
# of Closed Sales
Over the 4th quarter of 2018 there were 59 ultra-luxury sales, which is an increase of 25% from the prior year. The average sale price in this market sector was $20,123,000 which was higher by 1% than prior year which had an average of $19,909,000. The highest posted sale price this quarter was $73,800,000 for a 60h floor penthouse condominium unit at 520 Park Avenue. s ot h ebys h o m es.c o m /n yc
Average Selling Price vs. # of Closed Sales $24,000,000
120
$20,000,000 90 $16,000,000 60
$12,000,000 $8,000,000
30 $4,000,000 0
$0
Q1:17
Q2:17
Q3:17
Q4:17 # of Closed Sales # of Closed Sales
1Q:18
2Q:18
Q3:18
Q4:18
Average Sales Price Average Sales Price The Luxury Market
/ New York City Q4 Market Update
Condos {Q4 | 2018}
manhattan
Condominium sales were substantially lower with 15% fewer sales overall. The 1,081 closed condo sales this quarter posted significantly higher numbers due to closings at a few high-end, luxury buildings that skewed the numbers including 432 Park Avenue, 520 Park Avenue, 220 CPS and 70 Vestry Street. The average sale price increased 11% to $2,994,000 in Q4 2018 compared to $2,699,000 in Q4 2017. The median sale price fell 9% to $1,526,000. The average price per square was higher as the measure ticked upward 8% to $2,014. In the under $3mil segment, the average sale price of $1,367,000 was 2% higher than the prior year while the median sale price fell 3%. For condo units over $10mil, there was a 5% increase in the number of sales during this period over last year with 51 closed sales. These sales revealed an increase in the average sale price of 25% to $25,583,000. The average price per square foot for units priced over $10mil was 16% higher than prior year, ending at $5,219 per SF.
Web: 00112238
+11
%
Change in Average Selling Price {2018 v 2017}
-15
%
Change in Units Sold {2018 v 2017}
1,081 Units Sold
2.99m
$
Average Selling Price
Number of Closed Sales
Average / Median Sales Price
$3,500,000 2,000
$3,000,000
1, 800
$2,500,000
1, 600 1, 400
$2,000,000
1, 200
$1,500,000
1, 000
$1,000, 000
800 600
$500,000
400
$0
Q1:1 7
200 0
Q1:17
Q2:17
Q3:17
Q4:17
1Q:1 8
2Q:18 Q3:18
Q3:17
Average Sales Price
Average Sales Price
Q4:18
1Q:1 8
Q3:18
Median Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Number of Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Average Price/Sq.Ft.
{2018 v 2017}
-15%
2%
-3%
6%
4Q:18
813
$1,367,000
$1,249,000
$1,685
4Q:17
956
$1,341,380
$1,287,000
$1,590
{2018 v 2017}
-20%
14%
10%
4%
4Q:18
217
$5,205,000
$4,740,000
$2,491
4Q:17
271
$4,568,160
$4,292,000
$2,395
{2018 v 2017}
5%
25%
23%
16%
4Q:18
51
$23,583,000
$18,750,000
$5,219
4Q:17
49
$18,929,460
$15,294,000
$4,499
{2018 v 2017}
-15%
11%
-9%
8%
4Q:18
1081
$2,994,425
$1,526,000
$2,014
4Q:17
1276
$2,698,486
$1,680,500
$1,872
UNDER
$3 Million
BETWEEN
$3 - 10 Million
ABOVE
$10 Million
ALL
Price Points
Condos
/ New York City Q4 Market Update
Co-Ops {Q4 | 2018}
manhattan
Fourth quarter 2018 co-op sales volume were up by 3% from the prior year. The average overall coop price was $1,264,000 up slightly 1% year over year. In the under $3mil segment, the average sale price decreased 1% and the median sale price decreased 2% year over year. There were 2% more sales in the under $3mil segment. For co-op units in the price tier ranging from $3mil to $10 mil, the average sales price was flat compared to the prior year while the median sales price gained 4% year over year. Additionally, there was an increase of 8% in the number of closed sales in the $3-$10mil bracket. There were only 7 recorded sales in the top tier co-op price bracket $10mil and higher, posting an average price of $11,853,000 which was 15% lower than prior year where 8 units were sold.
+1
%
Change in Average Selling Price {2018 v 2017}
+3
%
Change in Units Sold {2018 v 2017}
1,518 Units Sold
1.26m
$
Average Selling Price
Web: 00112450
Number of Closed Sales
Average / Median Sales Price
2500
$1,600,000
2000
$1,400,000 $1,200,000
1500
$1,000, 000 $800, 000
1000
$600,000 $400, 000 $200,000
500
$0
Q1:1 7
Q3:17
1Q:1 8
Q3:18
0 AverageSales Sales Price Average Price
Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 1Q:1 8 2Q:18 Q3:18 Q4:18
Median Sales Median SalesPrice Price
Number of Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
{2018 v 2017}
2%
-1%
-2%
4Q:18
1408
$941,000
$736,000
4Q:17
1374
$949,000
$750,000
{2018 v 2017}
8%
0%
4%
4Q:18
103
$4,751,000
$4,171,000
4Q:17
95
$4,746,000
$4,000,000
{2018 v 2017}
-15%
-22%
-26%
4Q:18
7
$11,853,000
$11,675,000
4Q:17
8
$15,247,000
$15,750,000
{2018 v 2017}
3%
1%
-1%
4Q:18
1518
$1,264,000
$784,000
4Q:17
1477
$1,245,580
$795,000
UNDER
$3 Million
BETWEEN
$3 - 10 Million
ABOVE
$10 Million
ALL
Price Points
Co-Ops
/ New York City Q4 Market Update
new york city
Neighborhood Highlights Upper East Side
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
136
198
-31%
Average Sales Price
$2,332,000
$2,435,800
-4%
Median Sales Price
$1,675,000
$1,567,500
7%
COOPS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
411
395
4%
Average Sales Price
$1,720,000
$1,460,000
18%
Median Sales Price
$980,000
$825,000
19%
Closed Sales
The Upper East market area exhibited 4% higher sales count in the coop sector with the average sale price rising 18% to end at $1,720,000. This condo sector posted 31% fewer sales. The average condominium price fell 4% from the prior year at $2,332,000 (these area-specific figures exclude sales at 520 Park Avenue). The median price was $980,000 for co-op units, a 19% increase. Condo sales had a median of $1,675,000, 7% higher than prior year.
Upper West Side
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
145
228
-36%
Average Sales Price
$2,779,000
$2,680,000
4%
Median Sales Price
$1,425,000
$1,783,000
-20%
COOPS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
301
229
31%
Average Sales Price
$1,308,000
$1,497,000
-13%
Median Sales Price
$958,000
$1,115,000
-14%
Closed Sales
Co-ops in this market area posted an average sale price of $1,308,000, an 13% decrease from the prior year. The condo sector had a 36% decline in sales volume with just 145 closings. This was due to fewer closings at the new developments, specifically 1 West End. These condo sales had an average sale price of $2,779,000, an 4% increase from prior year. The median price was sharply lower with a 20% drop to $1,425,000.
Midtown
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
314
248
27%
Average Sales Price
$2,943,000
$3,053,000
-4%
Median Sales Price
$1,390,000
$1,475,000
-6%
COOPS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
287
209
37%
Average Sales Price
$934,000
$1,075,000
-13%
Median Sales Price
$640,000
$739,000
-13%
Closed Sales
The average co-op sale price in this market area was lower by 13% ending at $934,000 while the median co-op price was also down 13% to $640,000. This market area had an average condo sale price of $2,943,000 which was 4% lower than last year.
Uptown
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
92
98
-7%
Average Sales Price
$978,000
$1,060,000
-8%
Median Sales Price
$745,000
$750,000
-1%
COOPS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
120
117
3%
Average Sales Price
$574,000
$541,000
6%
Median Sales Price
$540,000
$515,000
5%
Closed Sales
Neighborhood Highlights
The average price of co-ops was $574,000 which was 6% higher compared to prior year. The median sale price of a co-op unit increased 5% to $540,000. The number of co-ops sold increased 3% year over year. There were 7% fewer sales in the condo segment. Although the average sale price was down 8% to $978,000, the median remained relatively unchanged.
/ New York City Q4 Market Update
new york city
Neighborhood Highlights Downtown
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
314
386
-19%
Average Sales Price
$4,005,000
$3,643,000
10%
Median Sales Price
$2,450,000
$2,610,000
-6%
COOPS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
379
500
-24%
Average Sales Price
$1,233,000
$1,236,000
0%
Median Sales Price
$827,500
$800,000
3%
Closed Sales
The 379 co-op sales in the 4th quarter of 2018 marked a 24% decline year over year. The co-op average sale price measure was flat at $1,230,000 compared to $1,236,000 exhibited the prior year. The median co-op sale price was also higher by 3% ending this quarter at $827,500. In the condo sector, the 314 sales were a 19% decline year over prior year. The average sales price of $4,005,000 was 10% higher while the median sales price increased 20% to $2,550,000.
Financial District / Battery Park
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
80
118
-32%
Average Sales Price
$1,399,000
$1,723,300
-19%
Median Sales Price
$1,085,000
$1,225,500
-11%
COOPS
Q4 2018
Q4 2017
% Change
21
27
-25%
Average Sales Price
$966,000
$975,000
-1%
Median Sales Price
$733,000
$780,000
-6%
Closed Sales
There were only 80 condo units closed in the fourth quarter of 2018, a decline of 32% over the prior year. Condominium price measures were substantially lower because of far fewer new construction sales. The average sales price was down 19% over the year prior to $1,399,000. The median sales price was down 11% year over year to$1,085,000. This market area has the fewest co-ops of any market with just 21 closed coop sales. These sales displayed an average sale price of $966,000 while the median sale price was $733,000.
Total Number of Sales by Neighborhood 1,400 1,200 Upper East Side
1,000
Upper West Side Upper East Side Midtown Upper West Side Downtown Midtown Uptown Downtown
800 600 400
Fi Di /Uptown Battery Park City
200
FiDi / Battery Park
-
Q1:17
Q2:17
Q3:17
Q4:17
Q1:18
22Q:18
Q3:18
Q4:18
Average Sales Price by Neighborhood $3,000,000 $2,500,000 Upper East Side
$2,000,000
Upper West Side $1,500,000 $1,000,000
Upper East Side Upper West Side
Midtown
Midtown
Uptown
Downtown
Downtown
Uptown
Fi Di / Battery Park City FiDi / Battery Park
$500,000 $0
Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17
Q1:18 2Q:18 Q3:18 Q4:18
Neighborhood Highlights
/ New York City Q4 Market Update
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© MMXIX Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.