San Francisco Market Update | Q4 2016

Page 1

Haight Ashbury | San Francisco, CA 0088250

San Francisco Market Update Fourth Quarter 2016 SAN FRANCISCO BROKERAGE 117 Greenwich Street San Francisco, CA 94111 t. 415.901.1700

sothebyshomes.com

All data within this document is pulled from the San Francisco MLS.


A MESSAGE FROM: JEFFREY G. GIBSON Senior Vice President and Brokerage Manager

Jeffrey G. Gibson SAN FRANCISCO BROKERAGE 117 Greenwich Street San Francisco, CA 94111 t. 415.901.1700 sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

According to the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, buyer activity increased single-family home prices despite fewer sales in fourth quarter of 2016. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2015, listings of single-family homes and condominiums in San Francisco took more time to sell. The average number of days a single-family home and a condominium stayed on the market throughout the City rose 18 percent from Q4 2015 to Q4 2016. Total closed sales decreased modestly throughout San Francisco, with the number of single-family homes sold falling 5 percent, from 638 units in Q4 2015 to 606 units in Q4 2016. The total number of condominiums sold also fell from 756 units in Q4 2015 to 710 units in Q4 2016, a 6 percent drop year over year. While listings were on the market longer, the average sales price for a single-family home across San Francisco grew 15 percent, from $1.6M in Q4 2015 to $1.8M in Q4 2016. The average sales price for a condominium stayed relatively flat at $1.2M in Q4 2016, a small 1 percent decrease from Q4 2015. Overall, even though some areas of the City saw a moderate decline in inventory, determined buyers - especially in the under $2 million market - helped keep the market strong in Q4 2016. As we move into 2017, we’ll be keeping a close eye on this evolving market.

Q4 TOTAL CLOSED SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) 800 700 600

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

SAN FRANCISCO (TOTAL)

736

710

675

638

606

DISTRICT 1

62

57

61

43

52

DISTRICT 4

111

96

97

106

85

DISTRICT 5

107

94

94

81

104

DISTRICT 6

19

13

15

10

13

DISTRICT 7

45

40

38

26

27

DISTRICT 8

12

7

5

5

6

DISTRICT 9

51

71

67

74

59

500 400 300 200 100 0

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: SFARMLS - October 1-December 31 each year.

Q4 TOTAL CLOSED SALES (CONDOS) 1000 900

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

SAN FRANCISCO (TOTAL)

796

866

762

756

710

DISTRICT 1

40

35

39

49

34

DISTRICT 4

15

15

16

10

7

DISTRICT 5

131

125

100

121

106

DISTRICT 6

84

103

89

76

94

DISTRICT 7

85

89

87

66

87

DISTRICT 8

137

142

126

124

128

DISTRICT 9

265

310

269

264

215

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: SFARMLS - October 1-December 31 each year.

Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and cooperate fully. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc.


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DISTRICT 1 Also known as the Richmond District, District 1 is nestled on the Northwest corner of San Francisco. Home to many distinct neighborhoods, including Jordan Park, Lake, Laurel Heights, Outer Richmond, Central Richmond, Inner Richmond, and Sea Cliff, the district borders both the Golden Gate Park and the Pacific Ocean. In District 1, residents and visitors alike can enjoy some fun in the park, or sit back and gaze upon the vast ocean.

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$2,500,000 50 45

$2,000,000

40 35

$1,500,000

30 25

$1,000,000

20 15 10

$500,000

5

$-

0

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

San Francisco

District 1

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q4

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,502,994

$1,479,163

$1,642,729

$1,564,407

$2,303,036

47.2%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,557,809

$1,591,397

$1,805,031

$1,710,930

$2,380,288

39.1%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

42

33

29

36

29

-19.3%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

62

57

61

43

52

20.9%

San Francisco

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

District 1

4


DISTRICT 1

Q4 AT A GLANCE

+39 %

+21 %

The average sales price for a single family home grew to $2,380,288

29 days

34 units

Average time on market for a single family home—a 19% decrease from Q4 2015

The number of single family homes sold was up to 52 units in Q4 2016

The total number of condominiums sold— down 30% compared to Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUM SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,400,000

60

$1,200,000

50

$1,000,000

40

$800,000

30 $600,000

20 $400,000

10 $200,000

$-

0 2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

2016

2012

District 1

2013

2014

2015

San Francisco

2016

District 1

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$792,410

$887,770

$1,120,333

$1,015,265

$1,090,676

7.4%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$823,267

$910,916

$1,169,526

$1,094,929

$1,144,261

4.5%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

55

41

36

36

38

5.1%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

40

35

39

49

34

-30.6%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q4

5


DISTRICT 4 District 4, also referred to as West of Twin Peaks, is located in a heavily wooded and picturesque area of San Francisco. District 4 encompasses 16 neighborhoods: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands and Westwood Park.

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

50

$2,000,000

45

$1,800,000

40

$1,600,000 $1,400,000

35

$1,200,000

30

$1,000,000

25

$800,000

20

$600,000

15

$400,000

10

$200,000 $-

5 2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

2016

0

2012

District 4

2013

2014

San Francisco

2015

2016

District 4

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,048,407

$1,118,997

$1,219,363

$1,422,494

$1,471,709

3.5%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,080,111

$1,192,282

$1,366,977

$1,586,606

$1,602,092

1.0%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

47

36

24

24

29

23.9%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

111

96

97

106

85

-19.8%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q4

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

6


DISTRICT 4

Q4 AT A GLANCE

85 units

The total number of single family homes sold— down 20% compared to Q4 2015

7

29 days

Average time on market for a single family home— a 24% increase compared to Q4 2015

The total number of condominiums sold— a 30% decrease compared to Q4 2015

units

-20 %

The average sales price for a condominium fell to $565,219

CONDOMINIUM SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,400,000

90 80

$1,200,000

70 $1,000,000

60

$800,000

50 40

$600,000

30 $400,000

20 10

$200,000

$-

0 2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

2016

2012

District 4

2013

2014

2016

2015

San Francisco

District 4

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$461,427

$460,123

$543,400

$668,800

$534,005

-20.2%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$475,367

$473,756

$591,247

$706,754

$565,219

-20.0%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

76

52

35

28

52

82.7%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

15

15

16

10

7

-30.0%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q4

7


DISTRICT 5 District 5, commonly known as the Central District, is in the geographic center of San Francisco. The sunny region, with its charm and vitality, is popular with both tourists and residents. The district is home to the neighborhoods of Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Clarendon Heights, Corona Heights, Cole Valley, Castro, Dolores Heights, Duboce Triangle, Glen Park, Haight Ashbury, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks and Mission Dolores.

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$2,500,000

50 45

$2,000,000

40 35 $1,500,000

30 25 20

$1,000,000

15 10

$500,000

5 0 $-

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

2012

2013

2015

2014

2016

2016

San Francisco

District 5

District 5

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,469,944

$1,767,988

$1,940,646

$2,072,037

$2,219,644

7.1%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,547,670

$1,871,729

$2,128,212

$2,268,185

$2,313,970

2.0%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

36

33

26

25

35

42.0%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

107

94

94

81

104

28.4%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q4

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

8


DISTRICT 5

Q4 AT A GLANCE

104 units

106 units

Total number of single family homes sold—a 28% increase from Q4 2015

35 days

Average time on market for a single family home—a 42% increase from Q4 2015

Total number of condominiums sold—a 12% decrease from Q4 2015

+5 %

The average sales price for a condominium grew to $1,315,085

CONDOMINIUM SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,400,000

60

$1,200,000

50

$1,000,000

40

$800,000 30

$600,000 20

$400,000 10

$200,000

$-

0

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

2016

2012

District 5

2013

2014

2015

San Francisco

2016

District 5

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$803,437

$997,700

$1,043,960

$1,134,612

$1,228,792

8.3%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$851,196

$1,092,140

$1,139,201

$1,257,365

$1,315,085

4.6%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

48

37

35

30

33

8.0%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

131

125

100

121

106

-12.4%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q4

9


DISTRICT 6 District 6, also referred to as the Central North, is a vibrant area with easy access to public transportation, trendy boutiques, excellent restaurants and gorgeous City views. The neighborhoods that encompass District 6 include Alamo Square, Hayes Valley, Western Addition, Lower Pacific Heights, Anza Vista and North Panhandle (NoPa). Homes vary from stunning mansions and Victorian houses to quaint single family homes and chic condominiums.

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$3,000,000 50 45

$2,500,000

40 35

$2,000,000

30

$1,500,000

25 20

$1,000,000

15 10

$500,000

5 0

$-

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2016

San Francisco

District 6

District 6

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,652,211

$1,755,923

$2,345,400

$2,466,800

$2,278,684

-7.6%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,698,895

$1,888,385

$2,430,867

$2,699,000

$2,388,692

-11.5%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

36

26

27

31

25

-21.1%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

19

13

15

10

13

30.0%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q4

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

10


DISTRICT 6

Q4 AT A GLANCE

-12%

-10%

The average sales price for a single family home fell to $2,388,692

+30 %

94 units

The number of single family homes sold was up to 13 units in Q4 2016

The average sales price for a condominium fell to $1,071,863

Total number of condominiums sold—a 24% decrease from Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUM SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,400,000

70

$1,200,000

60

$1,000,000

50

$800,000

40 30

$600,000

20

$400,000

10

$200,000

0 $-

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2016

San Francisco

District 6

District 6

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$690,084

$773,272

$922,964

$1,098,031

$1,046,105

-4.7%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$718,443

$821,689

$1,012,312

$1,194,860

$1,071,863

-10.3%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

64

30

48

34

40

17.9%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

84

103

89

76

94

23.7%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q4

11


DISTRICT 7 District 7 is located in the northernmost region of San Francisco. With the Golden Gate Bridge and the San Francisco Bay to the north and downtown to the east, the district is ideal for both work and recreation. With beautiful bay views, chic boutiques, and lush parks, residents can find plenty of activities in the Marina, Cow Hollow, Pacific Heights and Presidio Heights.

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$7,000,000 120

$6,000,000 100

$5,000,000 80

$4,000,000 60

$3,000,000 40

$2,000,000 20

$1,000,000

$-

0

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012

2013

2014

San Francisco

2015

2016

District 7

San Francisco

District 7

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q4

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$5,268,178

$4,605,185

$4,568,658

$5,326,962

$6,798,000

27.6%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$5,096,722

$4,610,200

$4,710,605

$5,272,150

$6,613,722

25.4%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

102

41

39

34

46

36.0%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

45

40

38

26

27

3.8%

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

12


DISTRICT 7

Q4 AT A GLANCE

+25 %

46 days

The average sales price for a single family home grew to $6,613,722

-6 %

The average sales price for a condominium decreased to $1,631,963

Average time on market for a single family home—a 36% increase compared to Q4 2015

87 units

Total number of condominiums sold—a 32% increase from Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUM SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$2,000,000

60

$1,800,000 50

$1,600,000 $1,400,000

40

$1,200,000 30

$1,000,000 $800,000

20

$600,000 $400,000

10

$200,000 $-

0

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

2016

2012

District 7

2014

2013

2016

2015

San Francisco

District 7

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,193,412

$1,321,807

$1,456,494

$1,620,742

$1,562,132

-3.6%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,211,439

$1,372,271

$1,539,271

$1,729,444

$1,631,963

-5.6%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

51

40

32

25

34

33.6%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

85

89

87

66

87

31.8%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q4

13


DISTRICT 8 District 8 includes the business and financial center of San Francisco, and serves as a popular tourist destination. Encompassing the skyscrapers of the Financial District, culture and art with the San Francisco Opera and Ballet, and popular locations like Fisherman’s Wharf and Chinatown, the district is truly the heart of the City. Residential neighborhoods include North Beach, Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill and North Waterfront.

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$7,000,000 90

$6,000,000

80 70

$5,000,000

60

$4,000,000

50 40

$3,000,000

30

$2,000,000 20

$1,000,000

$-

10 0

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

San Francisco

District 8

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q4

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,411,417

$3,494,857

$2,327,800

$6,099,600

$5,129,800

-15.9%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,464,667

$3,439,286

$2,293,000

$6,241,200

$4,904,982

-21.4%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

34

78

36

58

79

35.5%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

12

7

5

5

6

20.0%

San Francisco

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

District 8

14


DISTRICT 8

Q4 AT A GLANCE

-21 %

39 days

Average time on market for a condominium—a 8% increase from Q4 2015

128 units

Total number of condominiums sold—a 3% increase from Q4 2015

The average sales price for single family homes fell to $4,904,982

79 days

Average time on market for a single family home—a 36% increase from Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUM SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,400,000

70

$1,200,000

60

$1,000,000

50

$800,000

40

30

$600,000

20

$400,000

10

$200,000

$-

0 2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

2016

2012

District 8

2014

2013

2016

2015

San Francisco

District 8

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,058,202

$1,085,717

$1,155,238

$1,202,577

$1,220,635

1.5%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,047,308

$1,096,888

$1,191,053

$1,238,685

$1,230,426

-0.7%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

58

47

48

36

39

7.7%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

137

142

126

124

128

3.2%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q4

15


DISTRICT 9 District 9, the central-eastern portion of San Francisco includes the neighborhoods Bernal Heights, the Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach and South of Market (SoMa). The area includes some of the oldest homes in San Francisco, having escaped the 1906 earthquake and fire destruction. District 9’s real estate includes cottages, bungalows and single-family homes in Bernal Heights and Potrero Hill, and warehouse-converted lofts and condominiums in SoMa, South Beach and Yerba Buena.

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$2,000,000 50

$1,800,000

45

$1,600,000

40

$1,400,000

35

$1,200,000

30

$1,000,000

25

$800,000

20

$600,000

15

$400,000

10

$200,000

5

$-

0

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012

2013

2014

San Francisco

2015

2016

District 9

San Francisco

District 9

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q4

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$875,138

$1,105,069

$1,166,935

$1,312,865

$1,375,669

4.8%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$934,608

$1,245,001

$1,322,896

$1,464,239

$1,499,021

2.4%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

41

27

26

24

30

24.3%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

51

71

67

74

59

-20.3%

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

16


DISTRICT 9

Q4 AT A GLANCE

59 units

Total number of single family homes sold—a 20% decrease from Q4 2015

-5 %

The average sales price for a condominium decreased to $1,147,843

30 days

Average time on market for a condominum—a 24% increase from Q4 2015

215 units

Total number of condominiums sold—a 19% decrease from Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUM SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,400,000

60

$1,200,000

50

$1,000,000

40

$800,000

30 $600,000

20 $400,000

10 $200,000

$-

0 2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

2016

2012

District 9

2013

2014

2015

San Francisco

2016

District 9

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percent Change (2016 v 2015)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$907,292

$947,266

$1,004,008

$1,166,385

$1,134,406

-2.7%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$908,471

$971,866

$1,032,704

$1,206,982

$1,147,843

-4.9%

53

40

37

35

49

39.5%

265

310

269

264

215

-18.6%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q4

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

17


SIGNIFICANT SALES | Q4 2016

SOMA | $13,000,000 Seller Represented | San Francisco Brokerage Gregg Lynn 415.901.1780

PACIFIC HEIGHTS | $11,742,000 Buyer Represented | San Francisco Brokerage ML Castellanos, Ron Parks 415.901.1769

PRESIDIO HEIGHTS | $9,925,000 Seller Represented | San Francisco Brokerage Gloria Smith, John Taylor 415.722.2812

PRESIDIO HEIGHTS | $7,625,000 Seller Represented | San Francisco Brokerage Neill Bassi 415.412.3089

MISSION DOLORES | $6,850,000 Seller Represented | San Francisco Brokerage Daniel DerVartanian 415.901.1727

RUSSIAN HILL | $4,937,500 Seller Represented | San Francisco Brokerage Jessica Wynne 415.296.2223


MASTERPIECES IN THE MAKING

TM

Collection available for purchase at Sotheby’s Diamonds salons and exclusive exhibitions worldwide. New York +1 212 894 1400 | London +44 20 7293 6430 | Hong Kong +852 2822 8179 | sothebysdiamonds.com SoTHEbY’S, INC. LICENSE No. 1216058. © SoTHEbY’S, INC. 2016


ON THE MARKET

left to right from top to bottom:

METROPOLITAN MARKETS NEW YORK, NY | Web: 0138486 | $5,250,000 GREENWICH, CT | Web: 0068267 | $5,300,000 SAN FRANCISCO, CA | Web: 0088189 | $5,695,000 RESORT MARKETS MONTECITO, CA | Web: 0114072 | $5,500,000 HAMPTONS, NY | Web: 0046575 | $5,500,000 NAPA VALLEY, CA | Web: 0244257 | $5,699,000 FOREIGN MARKETS BELGIUM | Web: HCGGW9 | 4.950.000 € GREECE | Web: SN3KDB | Price Upon Request SWITZERLAND | Web: YMDRPZ | 5’200’000 CHF sothebysrealty.com


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