Manhattan Market Report | 2Q 2015

New York City Market Update Second Quarter 2015 MANHATTAN BROKERAGES East Side | 38 East 61st Street | t: 212.606.7660 Downtown | 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | t: 212.431.2440

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Cover Property: 150 CENTRAL PARK SOUTH | $8,995,000 | WEB: 0019715

MANHATTAN MARKET | OVERVIEW CONDOS & CO-OPS Second quarter 2015 prices reached higher levels across nearly the entire market spectrum as a result of a strong local economy, persistently low inventory, and sustained demand. Low inventory levels continue to create competition among buyers, causing record prices for units in nearly all Manhattan neighborhoods. While the total numbers of sales has decreased 26% due to the dearth of available units, the overall average sales price is higher by 8% year-overyear, reaching $1,831,000. The overall median sales price also had substantial gains, increasing to $997,000, up 11% from 2014’s second quarter. For all properties sold under $3M, the average sales price was up 4% and the median sales price was higher by 6% with nearly 27% fewer sales in this price tier. Properties priced under $3M accounted for approximately 86% of total market sales this quarter. In the next price tier, $3M to $10M, the average sales price was 5% higher and the median sales price 8% higher with nearly 9% fewer sales this quarter than the second quarter of 2014. In the top price tier segment, over $10M, market price strength was also evident as the average sales price increased 9% while the median sales price posted an increase of 19%. The over $10M tier accounted for 1% of the total 2,794 market sales this quarter.

MANHATTAN OVERVIEW Number of Closed Sales

UNDER $3M Q2 : 15 2,403

$3M TO $10M

Q2 : 14 % Change 3,307

Q2 : 15

-27%

OVER $10M

Q2 : 14 % Change

351

384

-9%

Q2 : 15

Q2 : 14

40

65

TOTAL % Change Q2 : 15 -38%

Q2 : 14 % Change

2,794

3,756

-26%

Average Days on Market

84

83

1.2%

Listing Discount

4%

3%

33.3%

Average Sales Price

$1,069,000

$1,030,000

4%

$5,121,000

$4,871,000

5%

$18,694,000

$17,157,000

9%

Median Sales Price

$865,000

$815,000

6%

$4,635,000

$4,300,000

8%

$16,650,000

$14,000,000

19%

Listing Inventory Months of Supply

$1,831,000 $1,690,000

8%

$997,000

$899,000

11%

4,698

4,979

-6%

4.7

4.4

5%

AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE $2,000,000 $1,800,000

For the second consecutive quarter, the average sales price of all recorded Manhattan unit sales was over $1,800,000. At $1,831,000, the measure is 8% higher than one year prior and nearly equal with the prior quarter figure of $1,851,000. The average sales price stands 21% higher than the lowest measure of the past 8 quarterly periods.

The median sales price gained 3% from prior quarter and 11% from prior year.

$1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0

Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and INVENTORY

Average Sales Price

7000

Median Sales Price

6000

Given diminishing inventory, the number of closed sales continues to decline with 3% fewer sales from prior quarter. The nearly 2,800 sales this quarter was 26% less than prior year. As stated, inventory has been persistently below normalized supply levels in this market (8,000 - 9,000+/- listings) and has been at approximately 5,000 units or less for most of the past 8 periods dating back to the third quarter of 2013.

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Q3:13

Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

Q3:14

# of Closed Sales

Q4:14

Q1:15

Q2:15

Inventory

Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages

MANHATTAN MARKET | ABSORPTION RATE CONDOS & CO-OPS The overall Manhattan absorption rate stands at 4.7 months which is a rate that signifies a “seller’s market.” The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 9+/- months. Absorption Rate is defined as the rate at which available homes are sold during a given time period. It is calculated by dividing the total number of homes available for sale by the average number of sales per month. The lower price segments have been experiencing unrelenting shortages of inventory with units under $1M at 2.9-months supply and units under $2M at 4-months supply. The top two price tiers have absorption rates signifying nearly two years worth of supply at the current pace of sales. These top price tiers are where buyers may have the most choice and less relative competition. However, the higher price segments also tend to be where sellers feel less inclined to lower prices. Although the absorption rates are much higher for the highend properties and significantly above the 9-month, equilibrium level; this level of supply is fairly common in the top tier price bracket.

Less than $1M $1M - $2M

$2M - $4M

$4M - $6M

$6M - $10M $10M - $20M

$20M+

TOTAL

Active Listing Inventory

1,513

1,030

978

405

394

242

136

4,698

Average Closed Sales / Month

526

256

143

42

27

11

6

1,010

Months of Supply per Price Category

2.9

4.4

6.8

9.6

14.6

22.0

22.7

4.7

NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS 5%

ABSORPTION RATE

25.0

3% 20.0

8% 32% 9%

21%

Less than $1M $1M - 2M $2M - $4M $4M - $6M $6M - $10M $10M - $20M $20M+

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

22%

Less than $1M

$1M - 2M $2M - $4M $4M - $6M Absorption

$6M $10M

$10M $20M

$20M+

Historical Equilibirum

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET & LISTING DISCOUNT Q3 : 13

Q4 : 13

Q1 : 14

Q2 : 14

Q3 : 14

Q4 : 14

Q1 : 15

Q2 : 15

Average Days on Market

92

88

86

83

74

85

83

84

Listing Discount

7%

5%

6%

3%

6%

7%

6%

4%

100

8%

90

7%

80

6%

70 60

5%

50

4%

40

3%

30

2%

20

1%

10 0

0% Q3:13

Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

Average Days on Market

Q3:14

Q4:14

Q1:15

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

The total number of days a listing is on the active market before an offer is accepted. It is calculated by totaling the total days on market for every closed sale, and dividing the total days by the total number of closed sales.

LISTING DISCOUNT

The percent change between the original asking (listing) price of a home, and the final sales price of the home. It is calculated by subtracting the sales price from the original listing price, and dividing the result by the original listing price.

Q2:15

Listing Discount

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THE ULTRA LUXURY MARKET CO-OPS, CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES OVER $10M Over the second quarter of 2015 there were 49 ultra-luxury sales, 34% fewer than prior year and 35% fewer than prior quarter. Much of this decline is attributed to fewer closings at ultra-luxury properties like ONE57, which achieved higher absorption rates during 2014. The average sales price of properties in this market segment was $19,367,000 which is 14% higher than prior year but nearly 13% lower from prior quarter. The highest posted sale price this quarter was $47,800,000 whereas the fourth quarter of 2014 had the highest residential sale price ever achieved of $100,500,000 for the top floors of the ONE57 project.

Q3 : 13

Q4 : 13

Q1 : 14

Q2 : 14

Q3 : 14

Q4 : 14

Q1 : 15

Q2 : 15

40

60

62

74

75

69

75

49

Average Sales Price

$15,195,000

$14,140,000

$16,638,000

$16,931,000

$17,912,000

$23,927,000

$22,138,000

$19,367,000

Highest Sales Price

$42,000,000

$33,000,000

$51,000,000

$70,000,000

$71,300,000

$100,500,000

$91,500,000

$47,800,000

Number of Closed Sales

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and AVERAGE SALES PRICE $30,000,000

80 70

$25,000,000

60 $20,000,000

50

$15,000,000

40 30

$10,000,000

20 $5,000,000

10

$0

0

Q3:13

Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

# of Closed Sales

Q3:14

Q4:14

Q1:15

Q2:15

Average Sales Price

SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - SIGNIFICANT SALES

1 Central Park South

31 Grove Street

Full Floor at the Pierre Hotel

Last Asking: $15,000,000

Last Asking: $12,750,000

Last Asking: $25,900,000

EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

*Due to Client confidentiality the final sales price cannot be disclosed.

Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages

MANHATTAN MARKET | CO-OPS & CONDOS CO-OPS Increasing prices were most apparent in the co-op market where the Manhattan overall average co-op sales price increased 14% year-over-year to $1,403,000. The median co-op sales price also posted double-digit gains with a 10% increase to $775,000 from the prior year. In the co-op market, over 90% of sales were under $3M. In the under $3M price tier, average prices were higher by 8% while the median charted a 9% gain. For co-op units sold between $3M and $10M, there were modest 3% and 2% gains in average and median sales prices, respectively. Within the top tier co-op price bracket, over $10M, co-op units had a 14% increase in the average sales price to nearly $18,600,000.

UNDER $3M

CO-OPS

Q2 : 15

Number of Closed Sales

1,500

$3M TO $10M

Q2 : 14 % Change 1,994

OVER $10M

TOTAL

Q2 : 15

Q2 : 14

% Change

Q2 : 15

Q2 : 14

% Change

Q2 : 15

Q2 : 14

% Change

-25%

133

141

-6%

15

19

-21%

1,648

2,154

-23%

Average Sales Price

$942,000 $873,000

8%

$4,791,000

$4,648,000

3%

$18,599,000

$16,286,000

14%

Median Sales Price

$725,000 $668,000

9%

$4,300,000

$4,200,000

2%

$17,000,000

$11,900,000

43%

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES

14%

$1,403,000 $1,234,000 $775,000

10%

$ 705,000

AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE

3000

$1,600,000 $1,400,000

2500

$1,200,000

2000

$1,000,000

1500

$800,000 $600,000

1000

$400,000

500

$200,000

0

$0

Q3:13

Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

Q3:14

Q4:14

Q1:15

Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Average Sales Price Median Sales Price

Q2:15

# of Closed Sales

CONDOS

The average sales price of Manhattan condos rose 6% to $2,435,000 with the average price per square foot reaching $1,628, also 6% higher than the prior year. The median sales price went unchanged for all condo sales recorded this quarter although within the three price tiers, the median sale price increased 4% for units under $3M; 13% for units $3M to $10M; and, 15% for units over $10M. UNDER $3M

CONDOS

Q2 : 15

Q2 : 14

903

1,313

Number of Closed Sales Average Sales Price Average PPSF

$1,277,000 $1,264,000

$1,382

Median Sales Price

$1,306

$1,150,000 $1,110,000

$3M TO $10M

% Change Q2 : 15 -31% 1%

218

4%

Q2 : 14

Q2 : 15

243

-10%

$5,311,000 $4,992,000

6%

$2,341

OVER $10M

% Change

$2,266

$4,850,000 $4,300,000

TOTAL

Q2 : 14

% Change

Q2 : 15

25

46

-46%

1,146

1,602

-28%

6%

$18,745,000

$17,486,000

7%

$2,435,000

$2,288,000

6%

3%

$4,138

$4,518

-8%

$1,628

$1,537

6%

13%

$16,650,000

$14,500,000

15%

$1,350,000

$1,350,000

0%

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES

Q2 : 14 % Change

AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE

2000

$3,000,000

1800 $2,500,000

1600 1400

$2,000,000

1200 1000

$1,500,000

800 $1,000,000

600 400

$500,000

200 0 Q3:13

Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

Q3:14

# of Closed Sales

Q4:14

Q1:15

Q2:15

$0 Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Average Sales Price Median Sales Price

sothebyshomes.com/nyc

NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN UPPER EAST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue Although the total number of sales declined dramatically, price measures were higher and by percentages greater than any other market area. The average co-op sales price of $2,143,000 was a 36% increase from prior year while the median co-op sales price increased 19% to $949,000. The average condo sales price in this market area is just over $3,600,000, a 29% increase over prior year.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

451

583

-23%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$2,143,000

$1,577,000

36%

Median Sales Price

$949,000

$800,000

19%

# Closed Sales

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

152

238

-36%

Average Sales Price

$3,618,000

$2,814,000

29%

Median Sales Price

$1,750,00

$1,597,000

10%

UPPER WEST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, Central Park West to Riverside Drive The total number of co-op sales on the Upper West Side was 348, a decrease of 24% from prior year. There were also far fewer condo sales with a drop of 36%. Co-ops in this market area posted an average sales price of $1,429,000, a 14% rise over prior year.

Similarly, the median co-op sales price saw a substantial gain of 18% to $925,000. The average and median condo sales prices actually fell 8% and 2% respectively, largely due to a pause in new development closings.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

348

455

-24%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$1,429,000

$1,254,000

14%

Median Sales Price

$925,000

$786,000

18%

# Closed Sales

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

176

273

-36%

Average Sales Price

$2,086,000

$2,263,000

-8%

Median Sales Price

$1,325,000

$1,350,000

-2%

MIDTOWN north of 34th Street and south of 57th Street The average co-op sale price in this market area dropped 9% to $901,000 while the median co-op price rose to $635,000, a modest 3% increase over prior year. The average and median condo sales prices also fell slightly which was also generally caused by fewer new development closings as compared to one year ago.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

265

433

-39%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$901,000

$985,000

-9%

Median Sales Price

$635,000

$615,000

3%

# Closed Sales

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

328

342

-4%

Average Sales Price

$2,268,000

$2,407,000

-6%

Median Sales Price

$1,280,000

$1,300,000

-2%

UPTOWN north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West Side The average sales price of co-op sales was higher by 16%, reaching $483,000. Market strength was more pronounced in the condo segment with the average condo unit price reaching $782,000, 19% higher than prior year. The median condo sales price grew to $690,000, a 14% increase from second quarter 2014.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

123

107

15%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$483,000

$416,000

16%

Median Sales Price

$419,000

$405,000

3%

# Closed Sales

Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

116

147

-21%

Average Sales Price

$782,000

$659,000

19%

Median Sales Price

$690,000

$604,000

14%

NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN DOWNTOWN south of 34th Street through Tribeca The 457 co-op sales in the second quarter of 2015 showed a decline of 21% as compared to prior year. Even more significantly, the condo market saw 43% fewer sales compared to prior year. Despite fewer sales, price measures were up across the board in this market segment including a 5% increase in the average co-op sales price; a 10% increase in co-op median sales price; a 28% increase in the average sales price of a condo; and a 31% increase in the median condo sales price.

CO-OPS

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

457

575

-21%

Average Sales Price

$1,195,000

$1,138,000

5%

Median Sales Price

$795,000

$725,000

10%

# Closed Sales

CONDOS

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

280

489

-43%

Average Sales Price

$3,316,00

$2,600,000

28%

Median Sales Price

$2,300,000

$1,750,000

31%

# Closed Sales

FINANCIAL DISTRICT | BATTERY PARK CITY

There were 94 condo units closed in the second quarter of 2015, a 17% decline compared to prior year. The average sales price of a condo unit in this market area slipped 6% to $1,218,000 while the median price increased 11% to $1,056,000.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

4

1

300%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$663,000

$1,800,000

-63%

Median Sales Price

$420,000

$1,800,000

-77%

# Closed Sales

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

94

113

-17%

Average Sales Price

$1,218,000

$1,293,000

-6%

Median Sales Price

$1,056,000

$950,000

11%

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

0

Q3:13

1400

$3,000,000 1400 1400

1200

1200$2,500,000 1200

1000

1000$2,000,000 1000

800

800$1,500,000 800

600

600 600 $1,000,000

400

400

200

200

$500,000

400 200

$0

0 0Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 0 Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q4:13Q3:13 Q1:14Q4:13 Q2:14Q1:14 Q3:14Q2:14 Q4:14Q3:14 Q1:15Q4:14 Q2:15Q1:15 Q2:15 Q4:13Q3:13 Q1:14 Q4:13 Q2:14Q1:14 Q3:14Q2:14 Q4:14Q3:14 Q1:15 Q4:14 Q2:15 Upper East Side Upper West Side Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:13 Upper East Side Upper West Side

Upper East Midtown Side Upper East Side Midtown Downtown Midtown Downtown Downtown

Upper East Side Upper East Side Uptown Upper West SideUpper West Side Midtown District / Battery Park City Midtown Midtown Uptown Financial Uptown Downtown Downtown Financial DistrictFinancial / BatteryDistrict Park City / Battery Park City Downtown

Upper West SideUpper West Side Uptown Uptown Financial DistrictUptown / Battery Park City Financial DistrictFinancial / BatteryDistrict Park City / Battery Park City

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MARKET COMPARISONS Comparing the second quarter of 2014 and the second quarter of 2015, all three markets showed an increase in price per sq. ft. with San Francisco seeing the largest increase at 12%, New York City at 6% and Los Angeles at 4%. Similarly, comparing this quarter and last quarter, San Francisco again shows the largest gain at 4%, then Los Angeles at 3%, with New York City remaining relatively flat at 1%.

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. | CONDOS ONLY $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Q3:13

Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

New York City

Q3:14 San Francisco

Q4:14

Q1:15

Q2:15

Los Angeles

SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - ON THE MARKET, AROUND THE WORLD

SIENA, ITALY | $31,414,787 | WEB: Z84NPS

SAN FRANCISCO | $11,000,000 | WEB: L99LYK

BERMUDA | $11,250,000 | WEB: RL774L

Tuscany Sotheby’s International Realty

Decker Bullock Sotheby’s International Realty

Rego Sotheby’s International Realty

Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages

FEATURED LISTINGS

MAGNIFICENT FIFTH AVE | $80,000,000

80 COLUMBUS CIRCLE | $36,000,000

PRIZE PENTHOUSE | $15,950,000

Approx. 20,000 sq. ft. | WEB: 0019150

5 BR/6.5 BA | WEB: 00110192

4 BR/4.5 BA | WEB: 0137788

Serena Boardman | 212.606.7611

Elizabeth L. Sample | 212.606.7685

Meg Siegel | 212.431.2451

Brenda S. Powers | 212.606.7653

737 PARK AVENUE CONDO | $15,750,000

993 FIFTH AVENUE | $12,950,000

66 LEONARD STREET | $5,750,000

5 BR/7.5 BA | WEB: 00110200

3 BR/4 BA | WEB: 00110128

3 BR/3.5 BA | WEB: 0137724

Austin B. Schuster | 212.606.7797

Louise C. Beit | 212.606.7703

Jeremy V. Stein | 212.431.2427 Jennifer Lanza | 212.810.4960

OUT OF THE PARK | $5,399,000

969 FIFTH AVENUE | $4,900,000

TRIBECA OASIS | $3,995,000

BROOKLYN | 3 BR/3.5 BA | WEB: 0137692

2 BR/2BA | WEB: 00110125

3 BR/2 BA | WEB: 0137835

Karen Heyman | 212.810.4990

Stan Ponte | 212.606.4109

Mark Thomas Amadei | 212.431.2449

Alan Heyman | 212.810.4991

Jonathan Hettinger | 212.810.4953

sothebyshomes.com/nyc

END NOTES A MESSAGE FROM OUR MANAGERS: Real estate is flying high in New York City. According to the Vanderbilt Appraisal Company, there was less inventory on the market in Q2 2015 than at the same time last year and prices across all points were up an average of 8%. The average sales price across Manhattan is at a new high, at an unprecedented $1,831,000.

Sellers are positioning and expecting to achieve even more than the last closed sale in their building. How does a buyer secure an apartment they love with limited inventory in an incredibly fast-paced market? With preparation and the ability to move just as fast. A Sotheby’s International Realty independent sales associate is at-the-ready to present you with exclusive listings that could be your perfect home and keep you informed as new properties hit the market. For clients considering the ultra-luxury market (properties over $10M), it remains a time to buy with many choices and less relative competition. New inventory includes properties in prime locations with iconic New York City views. The excitement continues!

EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

Ellie Johnson Senior Vice President, Brokerage Manager

Diane Levine Senior Vice President, Brokerage Manager

t: 1.212.606.7660 38 East 61st Street | New York, New York 10065

t: 1.212.431.2440 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | New York, New York 10010

© MMXV Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. This material is based upon information which we consider reliable but because it has been supplied by third parties, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and cooperate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.

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