New York City Market Update Second Quarter 2015 MANHATTAN BROKERAGES East Side | 38 East 61st Street | t: 212.606.7660 Downtown | 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | t: 212.431.2440
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Cover Property: 150 CENTRAL PARK SOUTH | $8,995,000 | WEB: 0019715
MANHATTAN MARKET | OVERVIEW CONDOS & CO-OPS Second quarter 2015 prices reached higher levels across nearly the entire market spectrum as a result of a strong local economy, persistently low inventory, and sustained demand. Low inventory levels continue to create competition among buyers, causing record prices for units in nearly all Manhattan neighborhoods. While the total numbers of sales has decreased 26% due to the dearth of available units, the overall average sales price is higher by 8% year-overyear, reaching $1,831,000. The overall median sales price also had substantial gains, increasing to $997,000, up 11% from 2014’s second quarter. For all properties sold under $3M, the average sales price was up 4% and the median sales price was higher by 6% with nearly 27% fewer sales in this price tier. Properties priced under $3M accounted for approximately 86% of total market sales this quarter. In the next price tier, $3M to $10M, the average sales price was 5% higher and the median sales price 8% higher with nearly 9% fewer sales this quarter than the second quarter of 2014. In the top price tier segment, over $10M, market price strength was also evident as the average sales price increased 9% while the median sales price posted an increase of 19%. The over $10M tier accounted for 1% of the total 2,794 market sales this quarter. MANHATTAN OVERVIEW Number of Closed Sales
UNDER $3M Q2 : 15 2,403
$3M TO $10M
Q2 : 14 % Change 3,307
Q2 : 15
-27%
OVER $10M
Q2 : 14 % Change
351
384
-9%
Q2 : 15
Q2 : 14
40
65
TOTAL % Change Q2 : 15 -38%
Q2 : 14 % Change
2,794
3,756
-26%
Average Days on Market
84
83
1.2%
Listing Discount
4%
3%
33.3%
Average Sales Price
$1,069,000
$1,030,000
4%
$5,121,000
$4,871,000
5%
$18,694,000
$17,157,000
9%
Median Sales Price
$865,000
$815,000
6%
$4,635,000
$4,300,000
8%
$16,650,000
$14,000,000
19%
Listing Inventory Months of Supply
$1,831,000 $1,690,000
8%
$997,000
$899,000
11%
4,698
4,979
-6%
4.7
4.4
5%
AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE $2,000,000 $1,800,000
For the second consecutive quarter, the average sales price of all recorded Manhattan unit sales was over $1,800,000. At $1,831,000, the measure is 8% higher than one year prior and nearly equal with the prior quarter figure of $1,851,000. The average sales price stands 21% higher than the lowest measure of the past 8 quarterly periods. The median sales price gained 3% from prior quarter and 11% from prior year.
$1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0
Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and INVENTORY
Average Sales Price
7000
Median Sales Price
6000
Given diminishing inventory, the number of closed sales continues to decline with 3% fewer sales from prior quarter. The nearly 2,800 sales this quarter was 26% less than prior year. As stated, inventory has been persistently below normalized supply levels in this market (8,000 - 9,000+/- listings) and has been at approximately 5,000 units or less for most of the past 8 periods dating back to the third quarter of 2013.
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
Q3:13
Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
Q3:14
# of Closed Sales
Q4:14
Q1:15
Q2:15
Inventory
Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages
MANHATTAN MARKET | ABSORPTION RATE CONDOS & CO-OPS The overall Manhattan absorption rate stands at 4.7 months which is a rate that signifies a “seller’s market.” The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 9+/- months. Absorption Rate is defined as the rate at which available homes are sold during a given time period. It is calculated by dividing the total number of homes available for sale by the average number of sales per month. The lower price segments have been experiencing unrelenting shortages of inventory with units under $1M at 2.9-months supply and units under $2M at 4-months supply. The top two price tiers have absorption rates signifying nearly two years worth of supply at the current pace of sales. These top price tiers are where buyers may have the most choice and less relative competition. However, the higher price segments also tend to be where sellers feel less inclined to lower prices. Although the absorption rates are much higher for the highend properties and significantly above the 9-month, equilibrium level; this level of supply is fairly common in the top tier price bracket. Less than $1M $1M - $2M
$2M - $4M
$4M - $6M
$6M - $10M $10M - $20M
$20M+
TOTAL
Active Listing Inventory
1,513
1,030
978
405
394
242
136
4,698
Average Closed Sales / Month
526
256
143
42
27
11
6
1,010
Months of Supply per Price Category
2.9
4.4
6.8
9.6
14.6
22.0
22.7
4.7
NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS 5%
ABSORPTION RATE
25.0
3% 20.0
8% 32% 9%
21%
Less than $1M $1M - 2M $2M - $4M $4M - $6M $6M - $10M $10M - $20M $20M+
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
22%
Less than $1M
$1M - 2M $2M - $4M $4M - $6M Absorption
$6M $10M
$10M $20M
$20M+
Historical Equilibirum
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET & LISTING DISCOUNT Q3 : 13
Q4 : 13
Q1 : 14
Q2 : 14
Q3 : 14
Q4 : 14
Q1 : 15
Q2 : 15
Average Days on Market
92
88
86
83
74
85
83
84
Listing Discount
7%
5%
6%
3%
6%
7%
6%
4%
100
8%
90
7%
80
6%
70 60
5%
50
4%
40
3%
30
2%
20
1%
10 0
0% Q3:13
Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
Average Days on Market
Q3:14
Q4:14
Q1:15
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
The total number of days a listing is on the active market before an offer is accepted. It is calculated by totaling the total days on market for every closed sale, and dividing the total days by the total number of closed sales.
LISTING DISCOUNT
The percent change between the original asking (listing) price of a home, and the final sales price of the home. It is calculated by subtracting the sales price from the original listing price, and dividing the result by the original listing price.
Q2:15
Listing Discount
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THE ULTRA LUXURY MARKET CO-OPS, CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES OVER $10M Over the second quarter of 2015 there were 49 ultra-luxury sales, 34% fewer than prior year and 35% fewer than prior quarter. Much of this decline is attributed to fewer closings at ultra-luxury properties like ONE57, which achieved higher absorption rates during 2014. The average sales price of properties in this market segment was $19,367,000 which is 14% higher than prior year but nearly 13% lower from prior quarter. The highest posted sale price this quarter was $47,800,000 whereas the fourth quarter of 2014 had the highest residential sale price ever achieved of $100,500,000 for the top floors of the ONE57 project. Q3 : 13
Q4 : 13
Q1 : 14
Q2 : 14
Q3 : 14
Q4 : 14
Q1 : 15
Q2 : 15
40
60
62
74
75
69
75
49
Average Sales Price
$15,195,000
$14,140,000
$16,638,000
$16,931,000
$17,912,000
$23,927,000
$22,138,000
$19,367,000
Highest Sales Price
$42,000,000
$33,000,000
$51,000,000
$70,000,000
$71,300,000
$100,500,000
$91,500,000
$47,800,000
Number of Closed Sales
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and AVERAGE SALES PRICE $30,000,000
80 70
$25,000,000
60 $20,000,000
50
$15,000,000
40 30
$10,000,000
20 $5,000,000
10
$0
0
Q3:13
Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
# of Closed Sales
Q3:14
Q4:14
Q1:15
Q2:15
Average Sales Price
SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - SIGNIFICANT SALES
1 Central Park South
31 Grove Street
Full Floor at the Pierre Hotel
Last Asking: $15,000,000
Last Asking: $12,750,000
Last Asking: $25,900,000
EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
*Due to Client confidentiality the final sales price cannot be disclosed.
Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages
MANHATTAN MARKET | CO-OPS & CONDOS CO-OPS Increasing prices were most apparent in the co-op market where the Manhattan overall average co-op sales price increased 14% year-over-year to $1,403,000. The median co-op sales price also posted double-digit gains with a 10% increase to $775,000 from the prior year. In the co-op market, over 90% of sales were under $3M. In the under $3M price tier, average prices were higher by 8% while the median charted a 9% gain. For co-op units sold between $3M and $10M, there were modest 3% and 2% gains in average and median sales prices, respectively. Within the top tier co-op price bracket, over $10M, co-op units had a 14% increase in the average sales price to nearly $18,600,000. UNDER $3M
CO-OPS
Q2 : 15
Number of Closed Sales
1,500
$3M TO $10M
Q2 : 14 % Change 1,994
OVER $10M
TOTAL
Q2 : 15
Q2 : 14
% Change
Q2 : 15
Q2 : 14
% Change
Q2 : 15
Q2 : 14
% Change
-25%
133
141
-6%
15
19
-21%
1,648
2,154
-23%
Average Sales Price
$942,000 $873,000
8%
$4,791,000
$4,648,000
3%
$18,599,000
$16,286,000
14%
Median Sales Price
$725,000 $668,000
9%
$4,300,000
$4,200,000
2%
$17,000,000
$11,900,000
43%
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES
14%
$1,403,000 $1,234,000 $775,000
10%
$ 705,000
AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE
3000
$1,600,000 $1,400,000
2500
$1,200,000
2000
$1,000,000
1500
$800,000 $600,000
1000
$400,000
500
$200,000
0
$0
Q3:13
Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
Q3:14
Q4:14
Q1:15
Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
Q2:15
# of Closed Sales
CONDOS
The average sales price of Manhattan condos rose 6% to $2,435,000 with the average price per square foot reaching $1,628, also 6% higher than the prior year. The median sales price went unchanged for all condo sales recorded this quarter although within the three price tiers, the median sale price increased 4% for units under $3M; 13% for units $3M to $10M; and, 15% for units over $10M. UNDER $3M
CONDOS
Q2 : 15
Q2 : 14
903
1,313
Number of Closed Sales Average Sales Price Average PPSF
$1,277,000 $1,264,000
$1,382
Median Sales Price
$1,306
$1,150,000 $1,110,000
$3M TO $10M
% Change Q2 : 15 -31% 1%
218
4%
Q2 : 14
Q2 : 15
243
-10%
$5,311,000 $4,992,000
6%
$2,341
OVER $10M
% Change
$2,266
$4,850,000 $4,300,000
TOTAL
Q2 : 14
% Change
Q2 : 15
25
46
-46%
1,146
1,602
-28%
6%
$18,745,000
$17,486,000
7%
$2,435,000
$2,288,000
6%
3%
$4,138
$4,518
-8%
$1,628
$1,537
6%
13%
$16,650,000
$14,500,000
15%
$1,350,000
$1,350,000
0%
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES
Q2 : 14 % Change
AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE
2000
$3,000,000
1800 $2,500,000
1600 1400
$2,000,000
1200 1000
$1,500,000
800 $1,000,000
600 400
$500,000
200 0 Q3:13
Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
Q3:14
# of Closed Sales
Q4:14
Q1:15
Q2:15
$0 Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
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NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN UPPER EAST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue Although the total number of sales declined dramatically, price measures were higher and by percentages greater than any other market area. The average co-op sales price of $2,143,000 was a 36% increase from prior year while the median co-op sales price increased 19% to $949,000. The average condo sales price in this market area is just over $3,600,000, a 29% increase over prior year.
CO-OPS
CONDOS
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
451
583
-23%
# Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
$2,143,000
$1,577,000
36%
Median Sales Price
$949,000
$800,000
19%
# Closed Sales
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
152
238
-36%
Average Sales Price
$3,618,000
$2,814,000
29%
Median Sales Price
$1,750,00
$1,597,000
10%
UPPER WEST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, Central Park West to Riverside Drive The total number of co-op sales on the Upper West Side was 348, a decrease of 24% from prior year. There were also far fewer condo sales with a drop of 36%. Co-ops in this market area posted an average sales price of $1,429,000, a 14% rise over prior year. Similarly, the median co-op sales price saw a substantial gain of 18% to $925,000. The average and median condo sales prices actually fell 8% and 2% respectively, largely due to a pause in new development closings.
CO-OPS
CONDOS
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
348
455
-24%
# Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
$1,429,000
$1,254,000
14%
Median Sales Price
$925,000
$786,000
18%
# Closed Sales
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
176
273
-36%
Average Sales Price
$2,086,000
$2,263,000
-8%
Median Sales Price
$1,325,000
$1,350,000
-2%
MIDTOWN north of 34th Street and south of 57th Street The average co-op sale price in this market area dropped 9% to $901,000 while the median co-op price rose to $635,000, a modest 3% increase over prior year. The average and median condo sales prices also fell slightly which was also generally caused by fewer new development closings as compared to one year ago.
CO-OPS
CONDOS
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
265
433
-39%
# Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
$901,000
$985,000
-9%
Median Sales Price
$635,000
$615,000
3%
# Closed Sales
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
328
342
-4%
Average Sales Price
$2,268,000
$2,407,000
-6%
Median Sales Price
$1,280,000
$1,300,000
-2%
UPTOWN north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West Side The average sales price of co-op sales was higher by 16%, reaching $483,000. Market strength was more pronounced in the condo segment with the average condo unit price reaching $782,000, 19% higher than prior year. The median condo sales price grew to $690,000, a 14% increase from second quarter 2014.
CO-OPS
CONDOS
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
123
107
15%
# Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
$483,000
$416,000
16%
Median Sales Price
$419,000
$405,000
3%
# Closed Sales
Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
116
147
-21%
Average Sales Price
$782,000
$659,000
19%
Median Sales Price
$690,000
$604,000
14%
NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN DOWNTOWN south of 34th Street through Tribeca The 457 co-op sales in the second quarter of 2015 showed a decline of 21% as compared to prior year. Even more significantly, the condo market saw 43% fewer sales compared to prior year. Despite fewer sales, price measures were up across the board in this market segment including a 5% increase in the average co-op sales price; a 10% increase in co-op median sales price; a 28% increase in the average sales price of a condo; and a 31% increase in the median condo sales price.
CO-OPS
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
457
575
-21%
Average Sales Price
$1,195,000
$1,138,000
5%
Median Sales Price
$795,000
$725,000
10%
# Closed Sales
CONDOS
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
280
489
-43%
Average Sales Price
$3,316,00
$2,600,000
28%
Median Sales Price
$2,300,000
$1,750,000
31%
# Closed Sales
FINANCIAL DISTRICT | BATTERY PARK CITY
There were 94 condo units closed in the second quarter of 2015, a 17% decline compared to prior year. The average sales price of a condo unit in this market area slipped 6% to $1,218,000 while the median price increased 11% to $1,056,000.
CO-OPS
CONDOS
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
4
1
300%
# Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
$663,000
$1,800,000
-63%
Median Sales Price
$420,000
$1,800,000
-77%
# Closed Sales
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
94
113
-17%
Average Sales Price
$1,218,000
$1,293,000
-6%
Median Sales Price
$1,056,000
$950,000
11%
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
0
Q3:13
1400
$3,000,000 1400 1400
1200
1200$2,500,000 1200
1000
1000$2,000,000 1000
800
800$1,500,000 800
600
600 600 $1,000,000
400
400
200
200
$500,000
400 200
$0
0 0Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 0 Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q4:13Q3:13 Q1:14Q4:13 Q2:14Q1:14 Q3:14Q2:14 Q4:14Q3:14 Q1:15Q4:14 Q2:15Q1:15 Q2:15 Q4:13Q3:13 Q1:14 Q4:13 Q2:14Q1:14 Q3:14Q2:14 Q4:14Q3:14 Q1:15 Q4:14 Q2:15 Upper East Side Upper West Side Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:13 Upper East Side Upper West Side
Upper East Midtown Side Upper East Side Midtown Downtown Midtown Downtown Downtown
Upper East Side Upper East Side Uptown Upper West SideUpper West Side Midtown District / Battery Park City Midtown Midtown Uptown Financial Uptown Downtown Downtown Financial DistrictFinancial / BatteryDistrict Park City / Battery Park City Downtown
Upper West SideUpper West Side Uptown Uptown Financial DistrictUptown / Battery Park City Financial DistrictFinancial / BatteryDistrict Park City / Battery Park City
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MARKET COMPARISONS Comparing the second quarter of 2014 and the second quarter of 2015, all three markets showed an increase in price per sq. ft. with San Francisco seeing the largest increase at 12%, New York City at 6% and Los Angeles at 4%. Similarly, comparing this quarter and last quarter, San Francisco again shows the largest gain at 4%, then Los Angeles at 3%, with New York City remaining relatively flat at 1%. AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. | CONDOS ONLY $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Q3:13
Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
New York City
Q3:14 San Francisco
Q4:14
Q1:15
Q2:15
Los Angeles
SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - ON THE MARKET, AROUND THE WORLD
SIENA, ITALY | $31,414,787 | WEB: Z84NPS
SAN FRANCISCO | $11,000,000 | WEB: L99LYK
BERMUDA | $11,250,000 | WEB: RL774L
Tuscany Sotheby’s International Realty
Decker Bullock Sotheby’s International Realty
Rego Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages
FEATURED LISTINGS
MAGNIFICENT FIFTH AVE | $80,000,000
80 COLUMBUS CIRCLE | $36,000,000
PRIZE PENTHOUSE | $15,950,000
Approx. 20,000 sq. ft. | WEB: 0019150
5 BR/6.5 BA | WEB: 00110192
4 BR/4.5 BA | WEB: 0137788
Serena Boardman | 212.606.7611
Elizabeth L. Sample | 212.606.7685
Meg Siegel | 212.431.2451
Brenda S. Powers | 212.606.7653
737 PARK AVENUE CONDO | $15,750,000
993 FIFTH AVENUE | $12,950,000
66 LEONARD STREET | $5,750,000
5 BR/7.5 BA | WEB: 00110200
3 BR/4 BA | WEB: 00110128
3 BR/3.5 BA | WEB: 0137724
Austin B. Schuster | 212.606.7797
Louise C. Beit | 212.606.7703
Jeremy V. Stein | 212.431.2427 Jennifer Lanza | 212.810.4960
OUT OF THE PARK | $5,399,000
969 FIFTH AVENUE | $4,900,000
TRIBECA OASIS | $3,995,000
BROOKLYN | 3 BR/3.5 BA | WEB: 0137692
2 BR/2BA | WEB: 00110125
3 BR/2 BA | WEB: 0137835
Karen Heyman | 212.810.4990
Stan Ponte | 212.606.4109
Mark Thomas Amadei | 212.431.2449
Alan Heyman | 212.810.4991
Jonathan Hettinger | 212.810.4953
sothebyshomes.com/nyc
END NOTES A MESSAGE FROM OUR MANAGERS: Real estate is flying high in New York City. According to the Vanderbilt Appraisal Company, there was less inventory on the market in Q2 2015 than at the same time last year and prices across all points were up an average of 8%. The average sales price across Manhattan is at a new high, at an unprecedented $1,831,000. Sellers are positioning and expecting to achieve even more than the last closed sale in their building. How does a buyer secure an apartment they love with limited inventory in an incredibly fast-paced market? With preparation and the ability to move just as fast. A Sotheby’s International Realty independent sales associate is at-the-ready to present you with exclusive listings that could be your perfect home and keep you informed as new properties hit the market. For clients considering the ultra-luxury market (properties over $10M), it remains a time to buy with many choices and less relative competition. New inventory includes properties in prime locations with iconic New York City views. The excitement continues! EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
Ellie Johnson Senior Vice President, Brokerage Manager
Diane Levine Senior Vice President, Brokerage Manager
t: 1.212.606.7660 38 East 61st Street | New York, New York 10065
t: 1.212.431.2440 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | New York, New York 10010
© MMXV Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. This material is based upon information which we consider reliable but because it has been supplied by third parties, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and cooperate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.
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