GLOBSEC Daily June 19

Interview Timothy Snyder There will never be Maidan on Red Square Page 4

www.dennikn.sk

FRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015

Bigger mission

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British Prime Minister David Cameron will come to Slovakia for the first time. He will attend the global conference on foreign policy and security in Bratislava.

Besides him, five more prime ministers, six presidents and almost a thousand participants will attend this year’s GLOBSEC. Do not miss David Cameron´s FOTO - TASR/AP keynote speach at 13:00 on Friday at Kempinski hotel.

The eurozone needs to become a transfer union, the chaos to the south and east requires vigorous European intervention. It could happen, but neither the European public, nor the policy-makers are ready for such steps

Leaderless World

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he ‘Juncker Curse’ could be the West’s epitaph.

The former head of government in Luxembourg (now running the European Commission) bemoaned Europe’s feebleness in economic reform. “We know what to do. We just don’t know how to get elected after we’ve done it.”

If things looked bad when he said that in 2008, they are worse now. The war in Georgia displayed the Kremlin’s aggressive mindset – but also Russia’s military weakness. Few people then believed that Vladimir Putin would be able to mount a sharp strategic challenge to NATO in the Baltic states.

NATO has reluctantly moved on contingency planning

EDWARD LUCAS The Economist

and prepositioning. But the gap between alliance capabilities and those of Russia is widening not shrinking – especially if you take nuclear weapons, space, new-generation conventional, cyber and propaganda weapons into account.

Europe’s leaders are worried, quite rightly, about other things. The problems of the tiny Greek economy have been allowed to balloon into an international financial crisis.

Everyone knows what is needed: debt relief plus real reform. But nobody seems able to negotiate it.

The Middle East looked bad in 2008. It is far worse now, with Syria, Yemen and Iraq in chaos. The tides of migrants fleeing abominable conditions in countries such as Eritrea, or simply wanting a better life than quite well-run places such as Senegal can offer, overwhelms Europe’s fraying solidarity.

The real lesson in the dreadful mess of 2015 is that Europe’s internal problems cannot be fixed without much stronger government at home and abroad. The euro zone, if it is going to survive, needs to become a transfer union, with transfers of money in one direction and of sovereignty in another.

Similarly, the chaos to the south and east requires vigorous European intervention—po-

The real lesson in the dreadful mess of 2015 is that Europe’s internal problems cannot be fixed without much stronger government at home and abroad.

litical, economic and military. It could happen: with 500 million people and a nearly $20 trillion GDP Europe is the biggest and richest place in the world. In conjunction with America’s military might, the EU’s economic heft makes it an equal partner in an alliance that could run the world.

True, neither the European public, nor the policy-makers, are remotely ready for such steps. But what is the alternative? It is not the status quo, but the destruction of the European economic and security order so laboriously built up over the past six decades, with poverty, instability, misery and war, not just in the European neighbourhood, but in Europe’s heartlands. Globsec has much to discuss.

ear GLOBSEC friends, it is my great honour and pleasure to welcome you on behalf of the whole GLOBSEC team to the tenth jubilee Bratislava Global Security Forum, GLOBSEC 2015.

It has been a decade since we organised the first edition of this conference.

Since then, Europe and the world have changed tremendously and we have faced one of the most dynamic decades in history. The mission to bring peace, freedom and security to Europe is not yet finished.

GLOBSEC has developed against the background of this exceptionally dynamic period. It has become an indispensable forum for sharing new ideas and formulating answers to the challenges that we face.

It is up to all of us to transform the debates into political actions and strategies. You, the GLOBSEC community, are crucial in this endeavour. Use the three day conference to the maximum, spread our debates beyond the walls of this venue and translate them into action.

Dear friends, welcome to Bratislava, welcome to Central Europe and enjoy every minute of GLOBSEC 2015.

ROBERT VASS Founder of the GLOBSEC Forum

INSIDE Andrei Zubov How can we solve the Crimean problem?

Page 2 What should you see?

Ambassador Rastislav Káčer recommends which panels are most interesting for him this year at Globsec. Page 2 Best quotes of GLOBSEC Page 2 10 years of GLOBSEC: How do you remember it?

Page 3 Timothy Snyder - Interview about the Russian challenge with Yale historian. Page 4

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FRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015

GLOBSEC DAILY

Zubov: How to solve the Crimean problem

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n early March 2014, Russian society and the Crimean people rejoiced, and the Russian President, Mr Putin said pompous words about the Crimean ship that has forever returned to the Russian harbour.

“Crimea has always been, and once again became Russian” – these words were repeated countless times, almost like a mantra.

But over the past year it has become clear, that the Crimean problem has become an instrument of destruction of international relations in Europe and throughout the world. The world took the annexation of Crimea by Russia as an act of unprovoked and unjustifiable aggression.

Residents of Crimea are far from being unanimous on this issue. Some of them, mainly the Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians – are for the return to Ukraine, the majority of the population – against.

Is it possible to decide the fate of the land without conforming to the will of its inhabitants?

Let’s check the history first. Crimea was not Russian until April of 1783. In ancient and medieval times the Crimean peninsula was owned by many states. But Russia was still non-existent, and if Ruses and Slavs appeared in the Crimea at all, it happened in very small quantities.

Yes, in the 11th Century, in Taman (now Kuban), there was the Tmutarakan Principality, which was ruled by the Rurik dynasty, but was more in favour of Kiev than Moscow. The population of Crimea, at the time, was very colourful, there were lots of Greeks, Italians, Armenians, Jews, Slavs, Polovtsian, descendants of the Khazars and Normans. Lingua franca gradually became a kind of Crimean Tatar language.

Of all the countries who have controlled Crimea throughout history, the Russian Federation was the briefest owner of the territory and so has the weakest claim to it. Even during the short tenure of Soviet power over Crimea, they managed to commit many crimes against the indigenous Crimean Tatar people and against all the other peoples of the peninsula, including Russians.

In 1939, 1.1 million people

lived on the peninsula, in September 1944 only 379-thousand were left, mostly Russians, Ukrainians (21%) and Belarusians. The annexation of Crimea transferred a local problem to the global level.

But is it possible to solve this problem?

Yes, there is a solution. But it requires the rejection of unfounded claims on foreign land and the return to the will of the people. But Crimea cannot be simply returned to Ukraine like a bag of stolen

To find out the real will of the people of Crimea, we need a new referendum under strict international control, respectable, not hastily but slowly and carefully prepared over several years.

potatoes. The fact remains that a large part of the population of Crimea, like in March 2014, wants to become a part of the Russian Federation.

But which part?

To find out the real will of the people of Crimea, we need a new referendum under strict international control, respectable, not hastily but slowly and carefully prepared over several years.

Whatever the outcome of the referendum, the descendants of the deportees should be given the right of repatriation. Control of the area should be provided by special international forces and Crimea should continue to be considered as a territory of Ukraine. There should be three questions to the plebiscite: do you want Crimea to remain a part of Ukraine; to be incorporated into Russia; or do you want to live in an independent Crimean state. So it was in 1955, when Saarland decided and even more recently in Scotland. This will be an honest and constructive approach.

You can meet Professors Zubov and Snyder during debate at City talks at 15:30 on Saturday.

ANDREY ZUBOV, Professor of History

Crimea as Russian Jerusalem? Explain to Tatars.

FOTO - TASR/AP

BEST QUOTES OF GLOBSEC 2014

Ambassador Rastislav Káčer recommends which panels are most interesting for him this year

What should you see?

We need such a conference, we need such a gathering, for us to exchange views, experience and expertise, that will help humanity fight against anyone who would like to break this global security.

Faysal Gouia

Diplomatic Institute for Training and Studies in Tunis

This is one of the few if not the only place where one can really discuss issues of democracy, safety, challenges to European integration, and reforms with people who understand every word that is said.

Here you can be very relaxed, you can talk to people who do understand you.

Oleh Rybachuk

Chairman and co-founder of Centre UA

It is probably the most important conference on security issues in Central Europe today.

Another thing about Globsec that makes it a stand out conference is that it really fosters lively debate bringing diversity of opinions, not long monologues Ian Brzezinski Senior Fellow in the International Security Program

Ambassador Rastislav Káčer is a Slovak diplomat, currently serving as Ambassador of Slovakia to Hungary. He has also held the position of Honorary President and Chairman of the Board of the Slovak Atlantic Commission since 2008.

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Russian Bear and lessons from WWII

t is a horrible job to choose only a few recommendations from the ‘Globsec menu’, but if I have to I would not miss these debates.

Keynote speech of David Cameron My top pick would be the speech by British Prime Minister David Cameron, newly reelected leader of one of the key EU and NATO countries.

Opening of conference, Friday at 1pm.

John McCain will be one of the most interesting panelists this year at GLOBSEC. You can meet him during the Saturday evening debate about US foreign policy.

FOTO - TASR/AP

Let´s talk about energy. It is about our safety

Energy: A perfect (Dis)union?; with Vice President of the European Commision Maroš Šefčovič, Saturday at 3pm

The USA: Still a superpower?

Maybe because I am biased and I still think the USA plays

WWII: Are We Doomed to Repeat the Same Mistakes?; with Timothy Snyder and Andrey Zubov; Saturday at 3.30pm

Our really big challenge: propaganda war

I also look forward to the Energy Security sessions. In my view we have to do everything to make energy (all types) – “only” a normal commercial commodity. Session speakers promise good debates.

Dynamic Visegrad: Energy, Growth, Competitiveness; with the leaders of V4 countries, Friday at 4pm

I recommend not to neglect our City talks – this one: Are we doomed to repeat the same mistakes? poses the question which is often looming in my head before I manage to fall asleep :-).

Globsec City Talks: Russian Bear Awake: Scenarios and Strategies; with Carl Bildt, former Swedish Prime Minister; Saturday at 11am

NATO will be represented by Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow. Do not miss his Friday debate about military alliance based on collective defense. FOTO - TASR/AP an essential role in European security, I am really looking forward to the session on US foreign policy.

US Foreign Policy: Still a European Power?; with US senator John McCain; Saturday at 5pm

My Sunday choice is Session 4, since I think we seriously underestimate the extent and impact of the ongoing information war. It is equally hostile and maybe even more dangerous than conventional threats.

My bonus is to meet Robert Pszczel again, with whom I ran my first NATO liaison offices – well more than 20 years ago.

Since then, the world is even more complicated and challenging.

Propaganda: Exploiting the Underbelly of Democracy; with Yevhen Fedchenko director Stopfake.org and Robert Pszczel, director of NATO information office; Sunday at 9am

FRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015

GLOBSEC DAILY

www.dennikn.sk

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BEST QUOTES

GLOBSEC took place in the midst of the Ukrainian crisis when every country in the world was deciding what their new strategy was, what their future will look like. People left smarter then they came.

George Friedman Chairman of Stratfor

FOTO - TASR

Iveta Radičová former Slovak Prime Minister

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still remember the very first and modest beginnings, which already were high-quality.

Every year the conference is better-organized and after 10 years has this good content small event transformed into a substantial international happening. It is a dynamic story which I have experienced as member of the NGO sector and also as a politician.

Karel Schwarzenberg

We ask several regulars of GLOBSEC why they always come back without getting bored

10 years of Globsec: How do you remember it? ally exceptional: when we successfuly started a new tradition of Czech & Slovak Transatlantic Award, at GLOBSEC 2012. Together, GLOBSEC and Days of NATO in Ostrava stepped up to a higher dimension.

former Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs

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or me, GLOBSEC has been since its beginnings one of the most important security conferences in Europe.

It surprises me how well prepared and organized it is. I also come here with pleasure. If you see that there is only a small group of people behind it, it is a big success for Slovakia.

Grigorij Mesežnikov President of Slovak think-tank IVO

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have attended the majority of GLOBSEC conferences, including the first, modest ones. Over these years, GLOBSEC has changed and it has gained importance even at the European level.

I have only good memories from it and look forward to it.

Zbyněk Pavlačík

Alexandr Vondra former Czech Minister of Defence

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Every year the conference is organized better and after 10 years from a good content small event it has transformed into a substantial international happening.

Jagello 2000 Association

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t is not easy to find the strongest moment of 10 years of Globsec. But one is re-

Iveta Radičová former Slovak Prime Minister

n 10 years, Bratislava became an important center of security talks in Europe. Because of this, we Praguers come enthusiactically every year to see how this event is bigger and better. We do not have a conference like this in our city.

Dániel Bártha Centre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy

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LOBSEC happened to be part of my life 10 years ago, when about a dozen foreign

guests (including me) mainly from youth sections of the Atlantic Treaty Associations of the Visegrad countries, were invited to a very successful Slovak event. My friends had big unrealistic dreams, but GLOBSEC has proved that even the founders could not dream big enough. I’m happy I was involved and followed such an extraordinary success from the front row.

Martin Bútora Adviser to the Slovak President Andrej Kiska

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managed to invite Zbigniew Brzezinski to the GLOBSEC two years ago. It was a pleasure to listen to him. Although not everyone agrees with what he says, he has a unique gift to think and talk as simple as possible. But still he accurately captures the essence of a problem he is talking about. There was also one Russian official in 2009. After his speech the crowd asked him: “Tonight, we openly discuss about and criticize our governments. Can you

also tell us something similar about Russia? And who are your allies?” He told them he is a professional, so they should not expect him to criticize his own government. “We have allies,” he said, “but if you ask if we have friends, I tell you, that we are talking about politics here.” It was something similar to the quote of former British PM Lord Palmerson, who in the 19th century said ‘we do not have changeless friends or enemies, we only have fixed interests’. GLOBSEC is a useful forum.

Robin Shepherd International Affairs at the Henry Jackson Society

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LOBSEC started out well, against even its founder‘s wildest expectations.

It then proceeded to just get better and better until it emerged as, by a wide margin, the most important yearly conference in Central and Eastern Europe, putting to shame every other foreign and security conference in all of Europe in the process.

In just a few years, the Bratislava Global Security Forum has become one of Europe‘s premier venues for discussing international security matters. And this year‘s meeting comes at a critical moment for all of us.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen former Secretary-General of NATO

GLOBSEC has become a Forum that has exceeded all expectations as well as traditional Central European themes and become a oneof-a-kind security and foreign policy platform.

Miroslav Lajčák Slovak Minister of Foreign Affairs

GLOBSEC is gradually taking a very honourable place among such events as the Brussels Forum or the Munich Conference with an emphasis on Central and Eastern Europe as well as the EU‘s Eastern neighbourhood.

Konstantin von Eggert Editor-in-Chief of the Kommersant FM Radio

GLOBSEC has been important to this particular moment in our history because it has permitted us to discuss in very pointed ways such important issues as democracy, freedom, and human rights.

John Allen

Former Commander of the U.S. Forces in Afghanistan

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FRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015

GLOBSEC DAILY

Kremlin wants to disrupt the whole process of European integration of which Ukraine is only one example, says historian and Yale professor Timothy Snyder

Snyder: There will be no Maidan on Red Square In a few days the EU will very probably prolong the sanctions against Russia, are they working? Are they an effective enough way for the West to contain Russia in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea and the support of separatism in the east of the country?

The sanctions are primarily important because they demonstrate the existence of unity and the capacity for decision making of the European Union. One can never be sure how sanctions will affect the targeted country because there are so many variables at play. The main purpose of the sanctions is to demonstrate that the European Union is united enough to follow through with this policy.

If you ask me if it‘s enough, no, clearly it‘s not enough. Russia is a very opaque authoritarian regime which is very resistant to outside influence, for better or for worse. If Ukraine is a fragile state under partial military occupation with obvious economic and political problems, sanctions are a necessary tactic for the immediate moment, but the real strategy is to take time and financial resources to try to strengthen the Ukrainian state.”

A year ago you proposed in an article that the EU should offer candidate status for Ukraine. But as we saw recently, the Riga Eastern Partnership Summit was a big disappointment without big steps forward. Is Europe afraid of Ukraine?

Generally I would say the idea of prospective membership is a very positive thing. It was very positive for Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia and Hungary.

The present situation is similar to that after 1989. Poland was not going to the EU immediately after 1989 but future membership was a very important prospect. So even if it took 15 years, as it did, you had this target, this idea that if you are doing the right things you will be rewarded. Ukrainians are not stupid, they know in any case that they won‘t be full members of the EU tomorrow or in five years. Rather than say we can‘t do this in ten years - which everyone knows anyway - it‘s better to say that in principle membership is possible if you do the right things. You can‘t stop enlargement because each example shows it‘s possible. If Slovakia or Romania can be in the EU, why not Ukraine, honestly?

Aren’t the military actions of Mr. Putin an attempt to stop Ukraine from being a more modern European country?

FOTO N - VLADIMÍR ŠIMÍČEK

Timothy David Snyder (1969) is an American historian, author, and academic. He is a professor at Yale University, specializing in the history of Central and Eastern Europe, and the Holocaust.

It doesn‘t seem that Russia has an interest in annexing eastern territories; if it did it could - who would stop them. Russia doesn‘t seem to care about the population of these territories.

If they cared they would not start a war which costs thousands of lives, injuries, and millions of displaced people.

Ruining people‘s lives is a strange way to show concern. But I think you are right that Russian leaders believe that they have an interest in disrupting the Ukrainian state, but it‘s much bigger than that. They want to disrupt the whole process of European integration of which Ukraine is only one example.

We see that Putin has some allies among the radical left and right wings. Is he a new prototype of a nationalist who radicals admire?

I think it‘s a question for the radicals. There are three things: firstly, some of the populists and fascists are getting their money and attention from Putin and pretty much everyone likes to receive money, the second thing is about some ideological affinities especial-

ly with the anti-human rights, anti-sexual rights and minorities agendas, and thirdly, a common interest in destroying the EU. The Russian strategy is essentially destructive, to turn the European Union into a big mass of nation-states in which Russia would be relatively more powerful. The EU is essentially the best way of life ever offered in the history of the West; the Russian offer is to destroy that in the name of a Donetsk-type lifestyle.

European parliament wants to monitor the financing of populist parties by Russia, but is the bigger problem not politicians like Fico or Orban from traditional parties who are fighting against the sanctions?

The Russian strategy has several different levels. One is you support true radicals, Nazis, fascists or people who can cause a lot of troubles, another is you support the populist right, people against the EU, then you support separatism of all kind – claim that the Scottish referendum was falisified, friendly support of UKIP in England; and

Foreign war is often done as a substitute, for example when you don‘t want to make reforms.

Fighting the war in Ukraine was a way for Putin to consolidate his position without actually doing anything for Russian society.

the next thing is you cultivate member states among the EU to varying degrees, like Hungary, Slovakia, Cyprus, Greece or the Czech Republic. If you have a pro-Russian voting block inside the EU then the EU cannot make policy.

When Putin is watching what‘s happening in Ukraine, is he satisfied?

I will say the same thing I said a year ago. This is a strategic disaster for Russia because its strategy depends on balancing between the European Union and China and when you alienate one of them then you are forced to lean to the other. What‘s happened is that Russia is becoming more and more a satellite of China. I don’t think its great geopolitics or strategy. The sudden tilt to China is a mistake because it limits Russia‘s options in the future. But we are in a situation where everybody loses.

Only China is winning.

But Moscow can‘t say that...

Russia‘s regime cannot acknowledge that they have made the world hostile. They expected that as soon they went into Crimea everything would collapse, but it did not happen, even when they entered Donbas with the same expectations.

Although the Ukrainian state is very weak and needs lots of help it hasn’t collapsed and continues to exist. Now places like

Kharkiv, Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk are much more Ukraine orientated Putin has helped them to find a Ukrainian identity?

That happened immediately after the invasion of Crimea a year ago and it‘s very sad. The idea of Russian civilization is fine if you are reading Dostoevsky for example, but when Russian civilization is defined as politics then people are forced to make a choice. The moment when Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border Ukrainian citizens had to make a choice. Then Ukrainians are forced to define Russia as a hostile and different society; millions of Ukrainians have said this, including Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

When you say that ‘Russkiy mir’ is more than just civilization, you can expect resistance. You cannot say every place where they speak English, like Canada or Nevada, is part of the British Empire. People will be happy to read Shakespeare in school, but that does not mean that they will welcome the British navy.

So the invasion of Ukraine is a huge historical turning point.

It’s the first time for a long time that people in that part of the world can choose and now they have chosen and it‘s part of the Russian strategic failure.

Was the western dream of democratic Russia, even Obama‘s attempt at a ‘reset’ naive?

Foreign war is often done as a substitute, for example when you don‘t want to make reforms.

Fighting the war in Ukraine was a way for Putin to consolidate his position without actually doing anything for Russian society. This is true for all kind of regimes. When the USA invaded Iraq in 2003, which was also in my view a strategic disaster, what I said at the time was that it does make leaders too popular and thus bound for a fall. The difference is that in a democracy there is a way out. Eventually you can elect somebody from a different party. Russia doesn‘t have this option because it is not a democracy. This means that no one has a way out of this.

In comparison with Central Asian leaders Putin is still young so he can rule for decades...

Because of their story about Maidan as an American plot and the fear there could be a Maidan at Red Square they have put a lot of money into the security apparatus, from FSB, and the Night Wolves to Chechen paramilitaries, they have some kind of security pluralism. In preparing for a situation which will never happen, since there will never be a Maidan on Red Square, they have overprepared and this is when something bad can happen. They have created too many guys with too many guns who don‘t have real jobs because there is no Maidan and no real Russian opposition.

Complete interview can be found at www.globsec.org

MIREK TÓDA reporter, Denník N