GLOBSEC Daily June 21

Interview Mikhail Saakashvili Future of Europe lies in Odessa Page 4

www.dennikn.sk

SUNDAY 21 JUNE 2015

Mission continues

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Three US senators - John McCain, John Barrosso and Tom Cotton - visited Bratislava on Saturday on their way from Ukraine. They supported sending defensive FOTO - SLOVAK ATLANTIC COMMISSION weapons to the Ukrainian army and said that “Putin is a threat to the whole of Europe.“

The menu in the first morning hours at GLOBSEC could not have been heavier: How to save Ukraine. Advisers, politicians and analysts over coffee called for more courageous drive from Ukraine and EU leadership

Ukraine breakfast

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ith smiles but also grim faces the untraditional breakfast at Kempinsky hotel started in the early morning hours. Even after passionate Night Owl Sessions participants were ready to debate the most important topic of the 10th GLOBSEC: How to save Ukraine.

Former Slovak Prime Minister Mikuláš Dzurinda started the Morning Owl Session by saying: „This state is still really fragile and so many things need to be done and so many threats needs to be challenged.“ He is now one of the dozens of foreign experts trying to help president Petro Poroshenko and the government Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

His main task is to help with re-

forms during a period when part of the country is occupied by Russia and another is fighting a war with separatists sponsored by the Kremlin. All that in addition to possible economic collapse. „Imagine how many threats Ukraine is facing: hybrid war, lack of leadership and resignation on reforms,“ said Dzurinda, „we all in the EU and Ukraine have a really big and complicated mission and time is running out.“ Dzurinda thinks the Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk tandem needs to be more courageous and speedier with the reformist drive. For example energy prices which can no longer be subsidised by the moneyless state which for so many years funded oligarchs through non-

-transparent gas flows from Russia. „Instead of putting much higher and real price of gas at once, they did it only partly, so they will have to repeat it likely three more times, but why would you make people suffer more times, if you can do it once and explain it immediately.“ Ukrainian civic society leader Oleh Rybachuk was optimistic. „Ukraine society during Maidan showed that in competition of two totally different approaches, value driven motivation defeated cost driven. People were ready to die for freedom and the path to Europe, not for cheaper bread, “ said Rybachuk. There was consensus around the breakfast table: much bigger aid, financial and also military, and more active policy in monitoring good and bad things done

What do I miss from the Ukrainian government?

More courage and bigger speed in reforms. Time is running out.

Mikuláš Dzurinda,

former Slovak Prime Minister and adviser of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko

by Kiev should be provided by the EU. The slow pace of reforms, and lack of interest of the EU was discussed more than the war. „Everybody is talking about corruption, but the main anticorruption body still has not been created, special prosecutors have not been chosen,“ said Yevhen Fedchenko, Ukrainian media expert. His colleague Natalia from TV Hromadske mentioned how the battle over hearts and minds in the war torn east is being lost. „Alone without real help from the EU this country can not be fixed,“ agreed participants of the breakfast at Kempinski.

MIREK TÓDA reporter, Denník N

or those of you who stayed for the final half-day of GLOBSEC, there are two final sessions: on Propaganda as the Underbelly of Democracy, and on Jihad in the West as the new face of terrorism. In between, there is a Chat with the Prime Minister of Montenegro which is the next country in line for NATO membership. All of them promise stimulating discussions.

A short remark on geography: Carl Bildt reminded us at Friday’s Gala Dinner that Bratislava lies half-way between Brussels and Kiev.

Also, Ukraine is Slovakia’s largest neighbour, and the only non-EU and non-NATO member.

Having discussed many relevant subjects over the course of the 10th GLOBSEC forum, transforming Ukraine is still the greatest challenge for nearby Central Europe. Imagine the migration problem in this region, if there would be large inflows also from the east. Before you say fare-well to this charming (and underestimated) city on the Danube River, you can download GLOBSEC policy briefs which make perfect reading for your flight: 2 pages long each.

Have a smooth trip home, and do come back!

MILAN NIČ Managing Director at CEPI

INSIDE Nigh Owl Sessions Didn´t get to the night panels? Read what they were about.

Page 2 Anti-refugee allies Prime Ministers of Hungary and Slovakia showed they are close to each other at GLOBSEC. Page 2 Big question: How to stop Russia?

Page 3 Mikhail Saakashvili Interview with Odessa Governor and the former Georgian President.

Page 4

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SUNDAY 21 JUNE 2015

GLOBSEC DAILY

Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves was happy to sign the GLOBSEC table.

FOTO - SLOVAK ATLANTIC COMMISSION

Slovak President Andrej Kiska delivered a keynote speech on Saturday.

FOTO N - VLADIMÍR ŠIMÍČEK

Right-wing on the same wave as left-wing

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V4 AGAINST REFUGEES Both prime ministers are against the quotas suggested by the European Union. Mr. Fico also said, that all four Visegrad countries share this attitude and are going to speak about it out loud when it comes to voting about the new rule.

Earlier on Friday Robert Fico also met David Cameron at the Government Office of the Slovak Republic, where he claimed he fully agrees with Mr. Cameron‘s opinion about the quotas, which says it is not right to centrally dictate behaviour on the question of accepting immigrants to any member of the EU. “Yet, if Mr. Fico agrees with Mr. Camerons opinion about the quotas, he could also say he shares his opinion about relations towards Russia.” says Mrs. Soňa Szomolányi, political scientist from Comenius University in Bratislava.

Next Wednesday is supposed to be the date when the

foundations of a wall against immigrants on the Hungarian border with Serbia should be done by Interior Minister Sándor Pintér. The wall is supposed to be 175 kilometers long and four meters high and it is a very rare step among EU countries.

Although the panel that PM Orbán was invited to was devoted to economic growth of the V4 countries and their future in the view of its leaders, the question of negative posture against immigrants could not be ignored by the audience.

EXPLANATION OF WAR Neither could the controversial border. “Each nation is defined by its borders. We have to defend the borders and stop people who endanger them.

The fence is just a technical issue. To defend the country is our obligation,” explains prime minister Orbán, when he is asked to defend the decision to build a fence which is reminiscent of the Iron curtain in the middle of European democratic environment.

Mr. Fico, instead of showing how unacceptable it is to build a wall between two countries, on which both of them do not agree with separating lines in such a physical manner (Serbian PM Aleksander Vučič said,

he does not support the idea of the fence, because Serbians are not going to live in Auschwitz) said Hungary deserves respect, because the country is solving the problem of immigrants in his own way.

Respect is the opposite of what Hungary deserves the opinion of Edward Lucas, senior editor of the Economist.

“It is disgusting. It is disgusting how Hungary behaves, because they shoud remember 1956 and they should know how it feels to run away from unacceptable circumstances,“ he said after the discussion. Such an extremely negative attitude towards refugees is in his opinion very rare aong western leaders.

Mr. Orbán also said that he does not believe in European solutions and also suggested how the EU should make better decisions in the future. He thinks, that the “institutional leadership which exists in Europe should be replaced by personal leadership, which works better when there is trouble. All major problems can be solved by strong leaders around Europe.”

This idea suggests Mr. Orbán is trying to behave as a strong leader when he is making one controversial decision after another.

TÍMEA BECK

FOTO - SAC

Is there a hope for Iraq?

Slovak and Hungarian PMs found common ground.

Both are against the refugee quotas

obert Fico and Viktor Orbán were not just sitting next to each other doing the discussion, but also seem to agree on many aspects of the internal politics of the two neighbouring countries.

Ther is a new book about GLOBSEC story.

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hat can be done to defeat ISIS in the Middle East today?

This should have been the central question of one of the late panels on Friday. But for most of the time, there was a talk on what can be done to tackle the jihadist group in Iraq.

This was no coincidence – two of the panel speakers, Jan Kubis and John Allen – have direct experience from the country that has for years been vexed by sectarian conflict between Shiia and Sunni groups, and toppled by continuing attacks from ISIS. Mr. Kubis is a new UN Special Representative in Iraq, Mr. Allen is a retired US General who is currently working as Special Presidential Envoy for the Glo-

bal Coalition to Counter ISIS. Although both agreed the current situation in Iraq is critical, they generally praised PM Abadi for his efforts to regain confidence among Sunni tribes, which is crucial both in winning over ISIS and restoring hope that Iraq will not be tore apart. For that, the Iraqi government needs more help from international community.

It was Mr. Ceylan, Permanent Representative of Turkey to NATO, who turned the attention to Syria as well. Mainly because Turkey has the biggest refugee population among neighboring countries. One of the proposed solutions was to build safe zones inside Syria, where refugees could live without worries of being attacked either by Asad forces or Islamists.

JURAJ ČOKYNA

Stucked in an elevator If Mr. Fico agrees with Mr. Cameron‘s opinion about the quotas, he could also say he shares his opinion about relations towards Russia.

Soňa Szomolányi, political scientist

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ver a hundred people chose to spend Friday night talking about the Western Balkans rather than partying in downtown Bratislava. Or as one of the panelists prefered - about Southeastern Europe.

Another noted, that The night owl session about The Balkans was one of the best attended of panels about this region he has ever seen at similar forums.

From one point it was not a surprise: there were very special guests. Among panelists were two presidents - the Head of State of Macedonia Mr. Gjorge Ivanov and the President of Croatia Madam Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović. The

other two panelists were the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary Péter Szijjártó and former European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Štefan Füle.

The discussion was full of methapors. One panelist described the feeling of Macedonia waiting for accesion to NATO or the European Union as that of being stuck in an elevator. Another used the phrase „waiting room“. Panelists criticized the words of European Commision head Jean Claude-Juncker about no enlargement of the EU in the next five years.

There were talks on how to make the waiting room more meaningful.

TOMÁŠ VASILKO

SUNDAY 21 JUNE 2015

Big challenge, big question: How to stop Putin Andrey Zubov Russian historian

Péter Balázs,

think that the principle is that not Russia, but the Kremlin, lost its war against Ukraine.

Putin controls just a small enclave in the Donbas region, he annexed Crimea with a lot of international problems and nothing else. Now it is important to think of how to move away from this situation. In the Kremlin they do not know what to do now. If they call Russian troops back they will lose face in front of the Russian public. With the loss of face they also lose control, over money and such. If they continue, the economic situation will be even more exhausting than now and the international isolation of Russia will be even stronger. What to do? It is clear. It is necesarry to return Crimea to Ukraine, to stop the war in the Donbas region, return the Russian troops and take other steps. But it is very difficult to say what the Kremlin accepts of this and what it has already rejected.

former Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs

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think that it is quite clear there is no military solution for this conflict, the Ukraine militarily will never be able to prevail over Russia. So the solution must be found through negotiations which take into account Russia‘s legitimate interests, if there is anything to do with security or economic interests. Although looking into the history of the conflict I am quite confident that the eastern partnership is not directed against Russia and that it would have been possible to have a parallel economic relationship between Ukraine and Russia and Ukraine and EU. Yevhen Fedchenko Co-Founder and Director StopFake.org, Kiev

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukraine policy is a major challenge for present day Europe.

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Ján Kubiś, UN Special Representative in Iraq

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irst of all, we have to solve it with political negotiations.

I don‘t want to validate the term Russian aggression with my statement, but in any case if it comes to conflicts and inconstistency, the only right way to solve it is to discuss as partners and talk very openly. When there are things which are unacceptable, like the annexation of Crimea for example, we have to talk very clearly. Either as Slovakia or as an international society, on the other hand we also have to listen to our partners because they could have requests which could be legitimate. So the only right approach is to consult everyone, very clearly and then, naturally, we need some actions, but not those which are going to be just a “fig leaf”. The sanctions are really just a fig leaf.

František Šebej, Slovak Member of Parliament

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he aggression of Russia in Ukraine is just a symptom of the resovie-

Europe needs to show that it is serious about the Russian threat and everyone needs to spend 2 percent of GDP on defence.

We need a functional energy union so we can not be blackmailed.

Thirdly, strengthen sanctions and be patient.

Anton La Guardia,

The Economist

tization of Russia. The return of Russia under Putin‘s leadership to almost every dark side of Soviet era, to ambitions, enemy posture toward the liberal west, democracy and liberal freedoms. The aggression is an experiment, which wants to prevent Ukraine not only from becoming a part of the European Union, but also from escaping Russian influence. The aggression does not necesarily mean that Russia really wants to annex Eastern Ukraine, because they cannot afford it. So I see it as a thing which cannot be solved in the near future.

Michael Chertoff, former United States Secretary of Homel and Security

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think that the Russians are sneaking slowly in a manner to expand their influence and control over their neighbour.

In some point we have to be absolutely resolute, that certainly when it comes to NATO member under article 5 there will be no tolerance for Russian intrusion.

here is no quick solution, but we could imagine a series of steps that could lead to a solution.

First of all, we have to start calling things by their right name. Which would put this whole conversation in more real terms rather than diplomatic ways, which are rather inconvenient, because they do not demand immediate actions of other parties besides Ukraine.

Secondly, The West should stop being such accomodationalists towards Russia. Because Russia is basically testing borders everytime and if they see there is no adequate response, they take the next step. Everybody is scared and I do not understand why, basically they are bullying everybody based on presenting their military power. If you look closer, most of that power is disfunctional. It is enough to take a look at the Doneck airport, they could say they can have their tanks in Berlin in one week from now, but they could not take the Doneck airport in three months. When we are scared we are paralysed. Then we should again use sanctions, because I do believe in sanctions and the more I hear Russia saying we dont care about sanctions, the more I am sure they really care about them and it hurts them.

They are really suffering and the sanctions really function as they were expected to function.

GLOBSEC DAILY

If our neighbors are in trouble, we are at risk

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n my first days in office I was shown a nuclear shelter. I considered it to be more of a curiosity, a relict from the shadowy past of the Cold War era. A couple of months later I heard the Russian president talking about the nuclear arsenal aimed at the West. A year ago some might have wanted to believe Ukraine was an isolated episode that will somehow go away. Today, there is no doubt. It was not an episode.

It’s a new reality.

Let me underline only two more points which I consider urgent. Firstly, let’s get rid of the delusion that our security ends at our borders. If our neighbors are in trouble, we are all at risk. If we don‘t help our partners, if we leave them in a vacuum of unclear promises and half-hearted efforts, the threats may come to our borders. Let us all remember: the people of Ukraine are fighting for their freedom and sovereignty today, because of their recent decision to become a part of democratic Europe.

Providing a better life for the people is the best answer to any aggressive intentions.

If people have something to lose, they will defend it. It‘s the prosperity, stability and freedom for the people that authoritarian regimes fear the most.

Secondly, I have talked about the world beyond our borders, but let‘s not forget about our own societies.

Extremism and nationalism have grown stronger in recent years. So has mistrust in governments. These trends can be as dangerous to our security as any outside threat. The disinformation campaign uses these trends. It supports cynicism by telling lies about Ukraine, about EU policy, and about NATO. It has one clear goal: to destroy unity in the EU. We should confront lies with facts directly and openly.

Andrej Kiska,

President of Slovakia

www.dennikn.sk

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BEST QUOTES

The frontline for freedom today runs through the fields and cities of Ukraine, but also through the minds of many in our own societies.

Carl Bildt Former Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs

Ukrainians are the first people to die for the EU expansion. It is very important to remember that.

Edward Lucas The Economist

61% of Russians believe that there are parts of other countries that belong to them.

Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes, Pew Research Center

If we don´t support Ukraine‘s army, we are in fact for the Russian military solution.

Linas Linkevicius, Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs

We have 70,000 Russian troops training at our border and 7 US tanks in Tallinn. Spiegel writes Provoking Russia.

Toomas Hendrik Ilves President of Estonia

In Russia, the political regime is absolute monarchy.

Sergey Aleksashenko Former Russian Deputy Minister of Finance

For millenium we belonged to the West.

Unfortunately, we were often forced to live under the influence of the East.

Bronislaw Komorowski

Presindent of Poland

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SUNDAY 21 JUNE 2015

GLOBSEC DAILY

Former Georgian President Michail Saakashvili talks about why did he offer himself to become the new governor in Odessa region in Ukraine

Fate of Europe is being decided in Odessa Why did you, the former president of Georgia, decide it is interesting to become a governor in Ukraine?

Because it is the place where the fate of Europe is being decided right now. Even Kiev still does not get it and they certainly do not get it in Europe.

We are talking about a district larger than Belgium and which is the main dream of Putin’s approach to the Ukraine. If he cut off Ukraine from the sea it means the whole region falls. It will influence the situation in the Caucasus and Moldova and Ukraine will be under a huge threat.

We are at war and I decided to undertake this challange. I declined to become the first viceminister of Ukraine because sitting in some office in Kiev would not be so attractive for me. I think we should make a difference on the ground.

From where can they threaten Odessa?

This is a very diverse region.

People say Odessa but there are several regions within it. There is Odessa city which has an amazing potential but people there have diverse views. But there is also a region of Bessarabia which is inhabited by ethnic Russians, Gagauz people, Bulgarians and Moldovans.

Russians and Gagauz people together make up a majority there, it is a region of 400 000 people. What is important is that this is the only real Russian population in Ukraine.

Now we have a situation where the threat is very real because the rest of Ukraine is connected with this region only by two bridges. If you shut these bridges it will break away. The Putin’s next project is to take Bessarabia, surrounding Odessa from the west and Moldova from the north. Putin does not want Mariupol alone, it is a big mistake to think so. He wants to have the whole Black Sea because if you want to break Ukraine you have to cut it from the sea. Then in addition, he would also get to Caucasus.

What about the border with Moldova? After you became the governor, you said it is poorly secured.

I gave an order to the head of the local police, whom I brought from Georgia, to shut down the smuggling and he will do it in the next two weeks. But we are risking further tensions because these smugglers will not give up easily.

How do you want to fight the corruption in the local police? Will you repeat the same scenario as in Georgia

FOTO DENNÍK N - VLADIMÍR ŠIMÍČEK

Mikhail Saakashvili (47) Governor of Odessa region in Ukraine, former President of Georgia (2004 - 2013).

when you replaced a lot of policemen?

Yes. We will have a totally new police patrol in Odessa in August. I also brought one Georgian general who will become the new head of the police there and he is already recruiting new people from all around the Ukraine.

Do you have to choose new people?

The situation in the local police showed us there are a lot of people who want to become police and they are much better than the old ones. This is a breakthrough for the whole region.

We also have a new head of the customs police.

Do you expect resistance from former police officers?

Yes but we have no other choice. If they stayed, they would sabotage our efforts all the time. For instance, one of the first thing the new head of police did was to remove checkpoints from around Odessa that were not there because of security. They were there to stop ordinary citizens and take money from them. The corrupt police was a source of instability.

When you got the job, the immidiate response from Russia was that there will be

a war because of you. Was it a good move?

I am there to avoid war because that is what Russia wants. That is why we need to engage people - not through oligarchs like the central government did but to engage directly through normal ways, to talk to them.

We also have to acknowledge diversity of this region. The identity of people is very special there, it is a Russian-speaking region, although they are not Russians. That is one of the things I am trying to explain to my friends in Kiev who are sometimes very irritated when I speak Russian and not Ukrainian. That is why I try to speak Ukrainian while in Kiev but when they go to Odessa and refuse to speak Russian it is a bad example. It is elitist.

How long did it take for you to decide if you take the job when President Poroshenko asked you?

He did not ask, I offered myself.

Do you have some connection to Odessa?

I do not and that is my advantage. Because well-connected people there are the worst. I am not a member of

Every major bussiness is blocked by law enforcement in Odessa. All the smuggling is controlled by them, all the local construction is controlled by prosecutors, the drug trade is controlled by the police and everybody knows it.

any political party, I do not have political ambitions in Ukraine, but we have big public support.

There were some rumours that you will replace PM Yatsenyuk.

I think Ukrainian politicians should clean up their own mess. I do not think putting a Georgian in that high post would help. I plan to go back to Georgia, there should not be any doubts about that, even if some politicians in Georgia think something different. But first I really want to change the situation on the ground. By the way, Odessa is full of Georgians.

Are the police officers in Odessa really so corrupt?

There is enourmous corruption. The new head of police was right - they should go out there and do business.

Some examples?

Every major business is blocked by law enforcement in Odessa. All this smuggling is controlled by them, all the local construction is controlled by prosecutors, the drug trade is controlled by the police and everybody knows it.

What else do you want to change?

We need to attract big investors. Odessa is in a better position than Georgia ever was.

It is amazing what position it has, investors from all around the world would gladly come back if we give them even the slightest chance to do that.

The problem is that the whole area was controlled by thugs who did not want anyone else to come in and they were helped by judges, prosecutors and other corrupted government officials. Poroshenko gave me a very free hand to fire people - usually governors do not get this opportunity.

How did the people react to your nomination? There were some demonstrations as well.

They were set up by the Russians. We have some extremely supportive people right now, I have huge support there and we have to keep it. It is a new situation for them, to have a politician, not an oligarch running the region. This is a signal Kiev is sending them. Historically, they had foreign governors before, Odessa was built by them.

It was one of the reasons I took the job because I knew people will not resent to it.

It was always a very liberal city. Is this the reason separatist’s movement is not very popular there?

There are many pro-Russian elements. But in general, their identity is not Russian.

They are very entrepreneurial and want to develop their city.

When we talk about Bessarabia, it is a different story, people there live in poverty. They are very hard-working, but also desparate. So it is easier to provoke tensions there.

How long do you think it will take to clean Odessa region of corrupt elements?

It depends on if the war will spread to the south. But if the situation will be at least as stable as it is now, we will have a total turnaround in one year.

It is quite optimistic. What is your impression of what is going on in Donbass?

Putin is biting piecies from Donbass, one by one.

He will continue?

He will try to continue and he will attack more and more places. But I think he will really try to use Bessarabia, to surround us from the west and from the north from the Moldova. And only after that will he continue to move forward from Donbass.

How to stop this?

By reforming Kiev, there has to be much faster pace of reforms which will bring more public support for the government. Ukraine also needs much stronger economic engagement from Europe and the military engagement from the US. So these three factors combined can stop Putin.

Why are they so slow?

It is inertia, it has been there for decades. In 25 years, Ukrainian political elites have not changed and it is such a small circle it is very hard to break it.

That is why Poroshenko brought in foreigners. To bring new people that are not connected with the old elites and they will now bring more new Ukrainians.

What about your arrest warrant in Georgia?

It is ridiculous.

MIREK TÓDA reporter, Denník N