On the Wrong Road by Coalition for Smarter Growth

On the Wrong Road A Massive Program of Highway Widening Will Increase Driving in Northern Virginia Faster Than Population Growth April 2022 Executive Summary The Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA) will be making multi-billion dollar decisions this year on the region’s transportation future, making updates to both its TransAction long-range plan and six-year funding program. However, most of its planned projects will fuel huge levels of additional driving, on top of the driving anticipated from population growth. While the NVTA also funds many transit, pedestrian and bicycle projects, the effectiveness of these investments would be undermined by the 1,200 lane-miles of new asphalt in the agency’s adopted TransAction 2040 plan. Analysis by the Coalition for Smarter Growth of NVTA’s proposed projects using the Rocky Mountain Institute’s State Highway Induced Frequency of Travel calculator, developed based on decades of traffic research, shows that: •

NVTA’s massive road building program would grow Northern Virginia’s arterial highway network faster than its population, adding 32% more lane miles compared to forecast regional population growth of 23% by 2040. Loudoun County would expand its arterial highways at a rate over 1.5 times its population growth, and Prince William at a rate three times faster than its population growth. Fairfax and Manassas would also build highway miles faster than their population growth.

Existing and Proposed Lanes of Principal Arterial Highway Miles

Source: NVTA 2017 TransAction plan and CSG analysis; existing lane miles from RMI SHIFT calculator, 2019 FHWA data; population growth 2019 to 2040 from U.S. Census Bureau 2019 estimates and MWCOG Draft Round 9.2 Cooperative Forecast.

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TransAction ignores the well documented phenomenon of induced demand,1 that new and bigger highways lead to more cars on the roads and more overall miles of driving, with expanded roads often filling up with traffic in as little as five years. Widening major roads leads to people with transportation choices making more and longer auto trips or making those trips during busy times of day or on busy routes that they would normally avoid, adding traffic right back to those areas. It also sparks more spread out, auto-dependent development, generating even more driving over time. Meanwhile, communities lose the opportunity to invest in more walkable, transit-oriented communities with shorter travel distances for all modes.

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By 2040, TransAction could make residents and workers drive almost 3 billion more miles per year on top of new car trips anticipated from population and job growth. For example, vehicle miles traveled (VMT, a measure of car and truck travel) on Loudoun’s highway network would increase up to 42% in contrast to population growth of 30%, and VMT on Prince William’s highway network (excluding interstates) would grow up to 60%, about three times faster than its rate of population growth of 21%. Fairfax and Manassas would also experience significant induced driving from their proposed road expansion projects. These travel volumes would largely occur in addition to the new traffic anticipated from population growth.

Induced Driving from TransAction 2040 Road Expansion Projects

Notes: - VMT = Vehicle Miles Traveled, which are total miles of travel by car and trucks. - Induced VMT is in addition to 2019 VMT and future increased VMT due to forecast population and job growth. - Based on TransAction interstate and principal arterial expansion projects through 2040. Additional induced driving anticipated from expansion projects of other major roads, such as minor arterials and collectors, is not captured by the SHIFT calculator. - Low and high estimates are reported by the SHIFT calculator to reflect the range of induced demand in the research literature. Source: RMI SHIFT calculator, estimated new lane miles from CSG analysis of the 2017 TransAction 2040 long-range plan.

Handy, S. (2015). Increasing Highway Capacity Unlikely to Relieve Traffic Congestion. UC Davis: National Center for Sustainable Transportation. Retrieved from https://escholarship.org/uc/item/58x8436d.

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This increased car dependence would make it impossible for Northern Virginia to meet its climate change commitments, even with electric vehicles. Over 80% of Northern Virginia residents want their elected officials to consider climate change when planning transportation.2 Yet, the induced driving just from TransAction’s interstate and principal arterial widening projects would increase the total miles of vehicle travel across Northern Virginia approximately 8% (and significantly more in the outer suburbs). This would occur at a time when the region’s leaders need to help residents reduce the amount they have to drive by 15 to 20%, in addition to adopting electric vehicles, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to safe levels.3

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More driving means continued oil dependence in the short term and continued high personal transportation costs in the long-term. Yet, NVTA’s public opinion survey found that affordability is one of the three most important regional transportation priorities, with durability and safety the other two.4

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Despite these negative impacts, NVTA has devoted a majority of its regional funding to expanding roads – almost 60% – of the combined funding to date and proposed for the next six years. The point of this analysis is not to suggest that every road widening project funded or proposed by NVTA is unnecessary, but rather to shine a light on the overall magnitude of a road-heavy transportation approach and its negative consequences for traffic and the environment. The $3.7 billion spent to date on paving over more of Northern Virginia would grow to $16 billion if all of the highway and arterial widening projects in TransAction were built. While TransAction “is not bound to any budget”, as the plan says, it “is used to inform the NVTA’s six-year program for capital funding.” NVTA has been choosing to give most of that funding to highway and road expansion, despite the TransAction plan having identified transit, pedestrian, bicycle, and traffic operations projects for a larger share of the long-range plan costs.

As it updates it plans this year, NVTA should seek a less car-dependent future and lasting solutions to traffic and climate change. NVTA and its members can shift regional transportation investments away from highway and arterial widening and foster more walkable, transit-oriented communities with a range of housing options. This shift would enable Northern Virginians to drive less, have more options to get around or live closer to destinations, spend less on transportation, have safer streets, avoid the worst effects of climate change, and protect their rural open spaces and natural resources.

Recommendations for a better Northern Virginia future A network of walkable, compact, inclusive transit-oriented communities is the most equitable, sustainable and affordable way for Northern Virginia and the Greater Washington, DC region to grow. To help implement this over the coming months through the TransAction plan update and its proposed funding program for fiscal years 2022 to 2027 (FY22-27), we ask NVTA to do the following: •

Develop and test alternative combinations of projects and land use for TransAction rather than simply studying one large wish list of projects. This approach would better inform member jurisdictions on the merits of their investments.

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Show the effects of induced demand for road expansion projects in the six-year program and TransAction.

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Establish sustainability and travel mode share targets informed by TPB’s climate change study.

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Elevate more meaningful performance metrics for the region’s residents and workers, such as travel times, equitable job access, VMT, safety, and climate pollution, with less focus on traffic congestion.

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Provide more transparency by requiring that member jurisdictions and agencies hold advertised public hearings on their proposed submissions for NVTA funding, the TransAction plan, and the tri-state regional Transportation Planning Board’s Visualize 2045 plan.

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Adopt a plan that will foster more walkable, transit-oriented communities with a range of housing options.

National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB). (June 2021), Voices of the Region Survey, jurisdiction results. TPB. (January 2022). Climate Change Mitigation Study of 2021; with CSG analysis in this Greater Greater Washington article. 4 NVTA. (January 2022). NVTA TransAction 2021 Update: Tracking Changes in Transportation Attitudes and Priorities, slide 9. 3

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Introduction The Coalition for Smarter Growth (CSG) analyzed the 352 transportation projects that the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA) proposes through the year 2040 in its TransAction 2040 long-range plan adopted in 2017 (see Figure 1 on the following page). We identified projects that build new and wider highways and arterials to analyze their contribution to induced driving, which is how many additional miles of car travel and traffic these projects will put on Northern Virginia roads. For projects that expand interstate and principal arterial highways, CSG applied the State Highway Induced Frequency of Travel (SHIFT) calculator, which estimates the millions of miles of new driving per year that these projects generate. This tool was developed by Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) in partnership with the National Center for Sustainable Transportation and other groups based on decades of academic research.5 The following sections include key findings of the analysis, background on the phenomenon of induced driving, and better transportation alternatives to massive highway expansion and car dependence. We are urging the NVTA and its member jurisdictions to change course and pursue these better transportation alternatives this year in their updates to their 6-year program and their TransAction long-range plan.

Report Organization: •

Key Findings

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Background – Induced Demand, Regional Context

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A More Sustainable, Livable Vision

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Bibliography and Acknowledgements

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Appendix A: Analysis Methodology

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Appendix B: TransAction Projects by Jurisdiction

Volker, J. M, & Handy, S. L. (2021). The Induced Travel Calculator and Its Applications. UC Office of the President: University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. http://dx.doi.org/10.7922/G22F7KQH Retrieved from https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2nr6q5rc.

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Figure 1: TransAction 2040 Road Expansion and Other Projects

Notes: Highway and road expansion projects add new travel lanes or new or expanded interchanges to highways and other major roads. Traffic operations projects improve vehicular traffic flow without expanding lane or intersection capacity. Sources: NVTA TransAction 2040 (2017) project locations, with project classifications by the CSG; base map data from the Northern Virginia Regional Commission (2011) and U.S. Census Bureau (2018).

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Key Findings TransAction Proposes a Massive Increase in Highway Miles, Paving over Northern Virginia Faster Than Population Growth NVTA’s adopted long-range plan, TransAction 2040, would pave over 1,200 lane miles of Northern Virginia and includes new bridges into adjacent rural areas in Maryland. These new lane miles of highways and major thoroughfares equate to crisscrossing Northern Virginia with eight new 4-lane highways – or building a 4-lane highway all the way to Niagara Falls.

Figure 2: Proposed New Lane Miles by Jurisdiction and Road Type

Note: Other Major Roads comprise minor arterials, collectors, and other road functional classes not included in interstate highways or principal arterials. Source: New lane miles from NVTA 2017 TransAction 2040 plan and CSG analysis using Google Maps; roadway functional class from local jurisdiction transportation plans and VDOT.

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Figure 3: Existing and Proposed Lanes of Principal Arterial Highway Miles

Source: New lane miles from NVTA 2017 TransAction 2040 plan and CSG analysis using Google Maps; roadway functional class from local jurisdiction transportation plans and VDOT; existing lane miles from RMI SHIFT calculator, which uses 2019 FHWA data; and population growth 2019 to 2040 from U.S. Census Bureau 2019 estimates and MWCOG Draft Round 9.2 Cooperative Forecast.

The TransAction plan states that it “is not bound to any budget, and proposes more projects than can realistically be funded.” While that may suggest a number of TransAction’s projects won’t get funded or built, the plan nevertheless serves as the approved vision of local elected officials and one that they would intend to build out if the money were available.6 The plan also says that it is “used to inform the NVTA’s Six Year Program for capital funding, guiding decisions about which transportation improvements the NVTA should prioritize for investment,” and, as demonstrated on the following pages, NVTA’s regional funding has been disproportionately going to highway and road expansion projects over other types of multimodal projects. TransAction’s candidate highway and roadway expansion projects represent 37% of all project costs in the plan, but NVTA has to date allocated 59% of its regional funding to highway and roadway expansion according to CSG analysis.

The Coalition for Smarter Growth has long argued that if the $40 billion+ in projects is not affordable, that’s a good reason to create a plan that uses land use solutions to reduce driving demand. 6

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NVTA Regional Funding has Mostly Gone to Building Bigger Roads – and it proposes to continue that In addition to its massive highway and road expansion program, TransAction also includes many worthwhile proposed transit, rail, pedestrian, bicycle, and traffic operations projects. But which projects have been and will actually get funding priority? A majority of NVTA-allocated funding to date has gone to widening highways and major roads and the proposed next six-year funding program would continue this approach. ●

Of the $2.5 billion in regional project funding allocated to date by NVTA, over half of it ($1.4 billion or 56%) has gone to highway and roadway capacity expansion projects.

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Of the $1.2 billion in the next cycle of regional project funding, the Fiscal Year (FY) 22-27 Six-Year Program, almost two-thirds is proposed to go to highway and roadway capacity expansion projects.

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Combined, about 59% of project funding to date has gone to highway and roadway expansion projects, much higher than their share of all proposed project costs in the TransAction plan (about 37%).

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While many of these projects contain other multimodal improvements like sidewalks or shared use trails, their primary focus - and the vast bulk of their project costs - go to adding more lanes for car traffic and building larger interchanges.

Figure 4: NVTA Regional Funding Allocations

Note: These totals comprise NVTA regional funding (70% funds) and do not include locally directed funds (30% funds). Source: NVTA regional funding allocations from novagateway.org and thenovaauthority.org/fy2022-2027-six-year-program/ with classifications of projects by the Coalition for Smarter Growth.

TransAction and recent NVTA funding allocations do include many important regional transit projects, such as the Duke Street Transitway in Alexandria, complete streets around new Silver Line stations in Fairfax and Loudoun, and VRE investments. However, without accompanying land use decisions to foster compact mixed-use, transit-oriented communities in the outer suburbs and many parts of Fairfax, officials in these jurisdictions will leave residents and workers auto-dependent for too many of their trips. Those trips will also keep getting longer. With record additional funding for transportation on the way from the federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the priorities set by the NVTA and other Virginia transportation agencies and jurisdictions could either help or 8

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hurt efforts to urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Georgetown Climate Center found that, “if investments instead flow mostly to adding more lanes and building more roads, the IIJA funding could result in an increase in emissions over what we’d expect without this additional investment."7

TransAction Would Result in Billions of Miles of Additional Driving - on top of Levels Expected from Population Growth The road expansion proposed in TransAction would generate up to 3 billion additional miles of driving every year - in addition to increased travel anticipated solely due to population growth. This induced traffic would be concentrated in Loudoun, Manassas, Prince William, outside-the-Beltway portions of Fairfax, and adjacent areas of Maryland (due to proposed new bridge crossings), but would also mean more vehicles traveling inward through the inner suburbs toward DC. The well documented phenomenon of “induced demand” means that new and bigger highways lead to more cars on the roads and more miles of driving, with expanded roads often filling up with traffic in as little as five years. Widening major roads leads to people with transportation choices making more and longer auto trips or making those trips during busy times of day or on busy routes that they would normally avoid.8 See the next section of this report for more background. Over twenty years ago the Washington Post reported on the aftermath of massive widening of I-270 in Maryland in an article titled “Md.'s Lesson: Widen the Roads, Drivers Will Come.” After spending “$200 million to widen more than a dozen miles, up to 12 lanes in some stretches… less than eight years after the project was finished, the highway has again been reduced to what one official called ‘a rolling parking lot.’”9 Is this a successful solution we want to continue repeating?10 With TransAction’s highway expansion, miles driven by cars and trucks (vehicle miles traveled or VMT) on the arterial network would increase at huge rates – significantly greater than rates of population growth. For example, VMT on Loudoun’s highway network would increase up to 42% in contrast to population growth of 30%. VMT on Prince William’s highway network (excluding interstates) would grow up to 60% in contrast to population growth of 21% – almost three times faster than population growth. However, these travel volumes from induced driving would largely occur on top of the new traffic anticipated from population and job growth.

Georgetown Climate Center. (December 16, 2021). Issue Brief: Estimating the Greenhouse Gas Impact of Federal Infrastructure Investments in the IIJA. 8 Handy, S. (2015). Increasing Highway Capacity Unlikely to Relieve Traffic Congestion. UC Davis: National Center for Sustainable Transportation. Retrieved from https://escholarship.org/uc/item/58x8436d. 9 Sipress, Alan. (January 4, 1999). Md.’s Lesson: Widen the Roads, Drivers Will Come. Washington Post. 10 While state highway agencies in Virginia and Maryland have recently been promoting major interstate expansions with a combination of tolled managed lanes and non-tolled lanes, these projects are still subject to induced driving impacts of adding more travel lanes, as suggested by recent research on California highway expansion projects. In addition, a study of the proposed new Maryland I-495/270 toll lanes showed that drivers who cannot afford to use the new tolled express lanes can expect worse congestion. The “hot lanes” or “express lanes” projects have failed to examine alternatives that address the underlying auto-oriented land use planning and east-west imbalance of housing and jobs in the region. The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) has found land use and transportation demand management approaches to be not only much more effective at improving regional travel than widening highways to create a regional toll lane network but also providing other benefits like improving job access, shortening commute distances, and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, TPB’s Climate Change Mitigation Study found that HOV or express lanes projects that add lanes are unlikely to lower GHG emissions (see footnote #19).

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Figure 5: Induced Driving from TransAction 2040 Road Expansion Projects

Notes: - VMT = Vehicle Miles Traveled, which are total miles of travel by car and trucks. - Induced VMT is in addition to 2019 VMT and future increased VMT due to forecast population growth. - Total induced driving is for implementation of TransAction interstate and principal arterial expansion projects through 2040. Additional induced driving anticipated from expansion projects of other major roads, such as minor arterials and collectors, is not captured by the SHIFT calculator. - Low and high estimates are reported by the SHIFT calculator to reflect the range of induced demand elasticity in the research literature and project-by-project variability. Source: RMI SHIFT calculator, estimated new lane miles from CSG analysis of 2017 TransAction 2040 long-range plan projects.

In addition to the induced driving, TransAction proposes sixteen (16) highway and road expansion projects within or along the edges of Prince William County’s Rural Crescent and Loudoun County’s Rural Policy Area that would spur new sprawl, converting farms and forests that provide open space and protect sources of drinking water.

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TransAction’s Induced Driving would Make it Impossible for Northern Virginia to Meet its Climate Change Commitments Northern Virginia officials have committed to the region’s climate goals – reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 and to net zero by 2050. Transportation is now our number one source of emissions and the sector must do its part. The regional Transportation Planning Board’s (TPB) climate study showed that we need to reduce driving (vehicle miles traveled or VMT) by 15 to 20% by 2030, in addition to a rapid transition to electric cars and trucks and a cleaner electric grid. In contrast, the induced demand of TransAction’s road projects would lead to 8% more driving (VMT), a substantial swing in the wrong direction. Growth in driving would be even higher in the outer suburbs. TransAction’s proposed transit projects may only counteract this induced driving by a few percentage points due to sprawling land use plans and massive road expansion in the middle and outer suburbs. At the same time, the major extensions of Metrorail shown in the plan – to Potomac Mills and to Centreville, are unlikely to make sense because of the scattered land use plans and the cost per mile for each rider.

Figure 6: Northern Virginia Vehicle Miles, Climate Targets, and TransAction Induced Driving

Notes: Forecast baseline vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are approximate and adapted from TPB regional studies. - TransAction’s proposed major investment in transit projects would be expected to reduce future baseline VMT growth only a few percentage points in the absence of more widespread land use planning for walkable, transit-oriented communities. - Limit of VMT growth under TPB climate scenarios shows a 14% reduction below future baseline VMT growth. The TPB Climate Change Mitigation Study of 2021 demonstrated that to meet the MWCOG 2030 and 2050 climate targets only scenarios which reduced total VMT growth on average by this amount in the 2040 timeframe and achieved expeditious but still realistic adoption of electric vehicles would sufficiently reduce GHG emissions from on-road transportation. See Appendix A for more information. - Right bar assumes that TransAction road expansion project induced VMT is not included in baseline regional CLRP forecasts; however, even if those forecasts did account for all of the induced demand effects of all TransAction highway expansion projects, this total forecast increase in VMT would still far surpass the limited growth in VMT that the region can afford in order to meet greenhouse gas reduction targets, even with a transition to electric vehicles. Sources: 2019 VMT from VDOT; 2040 baseline VMT forecast from TPB, 2018 Visualize 2045 long-range plan; reduction in future forecast baseline VMT from transit based on the TPB 2017 Long Range Plan Task Force study; induced demand VMT growth from RMI SHIFT calculator based on CSG analysis of NVTA 2017 Transaction 2040 projects. See Appendix A for more information.

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Background - Induced Demand, Regional Context Induced demand is well established and explains why adding more and more lanes has not fixed congestion or reduced the amount we have to drive Induced demand, also referred to as induced driving or induced travel, is the widely documented phenomenon in which widening highways results in more driving that generally cancels out any congestion-relief benefits in as little as five to ten years. Numerous academic studies of highway expansion projects in the U.S. and abroad have demonstrated this result in practice and shown that it follows basic economic principles - when a good is provided for free, people consume more of it until the supply is exhausted.11 Widening major roads entices people with transportation choices to make more and longer auto trips or make those trips during busy times of day or on routes that they normally would have avoided, adding traffic right back to those areas.12 In addition, these wider roads open up more land to development or are otherwise used to justify autodependent development patterns, which add even more vehicle trips.13 Auto-dependent development patterns are low density, single use rather than mixed use, with buildings, retail and office oriented toward car users, and with street patterns that have few connections and very long blocks. The diagram on the right and this video illustrate the general concept of induced demand.

Explainers of induced demand and summaries of the literature can be found in this National Center for Sustainable Transportation Policy Brief, report by Transportation for America, report on the Induced Travel Calculator and its Applications by the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies, and Generated Traffic and Induced Travel: Implications for Transport Planning by the Victoria Transport Planning Institute. 12 Victoria Transport Policy Institute differentiates between “Generated Traffic”, defined as “Additional peak-period vehicle trips on a particular roadway that occur when capacity is increased. This may consist of shifts in travel time, route, mode, destination and frequency.”; and “Induced Travel”, defined as “An increase in total vehicle mileage due to roadway improvements that increase vehicle trip frequency and distance, but exclude travel shifted from other times and routes.” (from Definitions, page 3 of the cited report). This analysis of NVTA projects using the RMI SHIFT Calculator provides estimates of total miles of induced travel or induced driving. 13 See The Congestion Con, by Transportation for America, pages 18-19, for a clear illustration of how auto-oriented neighborhood design actually worsens traffic by creating more driving.

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The National Center for Sustainable Transportation, a consortium of universities supported by the U.S. Department of Transportation, provides a good primer on induced travel. Their synthesis of the research concluded that: ●

The quality of the evidence linking highway capacity expansion to increased VMT is high;

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Increased roadway capacity induces additional VMT in the short-run and even more VMT in the long-run;

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Capacity expansion leads to a net increase in VMT, not simply a shifting of VMT from one road to another;

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Increases in GHG emissions attributable to capacity expansion are substantial;

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Capacity expansion does not increase employment or other economic activity; and

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Conversely, reductions in roadway capacity tend to produce social and economic benefits without worsening traffic congestion.14

Recent studies continue to validate this “global law of road congestion,” and this article discusses why transportation agencies continue to ignore it. One root of the problem is that so many local and state transportation agencies like NVTA focus disproportionately on congestion relief, as measured by traffic speeds, rather than accessibility to jobs, services, schools, and housing, where accessibility can be achieved through proximity, faster transit, and walk and bike-friendly mixed-use.

Electric vehicles, while essential, are not enough to reduce the massive climate pollution from transportation and sprawl Transportation is the region’s number one source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and most of this is from cars and trucks.15 Numerous studies have demonstrated that electric vehicles and a clean electric grid are not enough to meet adopted GHG reduction targets. Cities and regions must also help residents and workers shift trips to more sustainable travel modes.16 The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) just completed a study that reached the same conclusion: “both rapid shifts toward lower emissions vehicles/fuels and vehicle travel reduction strategies are needed to achieve the near-term [climate] goal.”17 Only the scenarios that combined rapid but realistic adoption of electric cars and trucks with reducing the need to drive by 15-20% from pre-pandemic levels achieved the transportation GHG reductions necessary to meet the goals in the region’s adopted climate plan. TPB’s scenario analysis showed that a feasible combination of land use and housing, transit, walking, biking, and road and parking pricing strategies combined with more electric vehicles could achieve the reductions. These mode shift and travel behavior strategies, while essential for greenhouse gas reductions, provide other community benefits like reducing travel times and transportation costs while providing more housing and travel options.18 While congested driving and idling increase GHG and other pollutant emissions per mile, road widening for short-term congestion relief often increases GHG emissions overall due to the resulting induced driving. Creating new tolled or

Handy, Susan. 2015. Increasing Highway Capacity Unlikely to Relieve Traffic Congestion. UC Davis Policy Briefs. MWCOG. 2020. 2030 Climate and Energy Action Plan. 16 See pages 3-5 in CSG, March 2021, Cutting Transportation Emissions by 2030 and Beyond. More recent studies documenting the need to reduce vehicle miles traveled to meet climate targets include these by the State Smart Transportation Initiative, Brookings Institution, and the Institute for Transportation & Development Policy. 17 TPB. 2022. Climate Change Mitigation Study of 2021. See Final Report, Implications and Policy Considerations. 18 For more on the co-benefits of mode shift and travel behavior strategies to reduce GHG emissions, see pages 12-15 in CSG, March 2021, Cutting Transportation Emissions by 2030 and Beyond, and also page 11 of Comprehensive Transportation Emission Reduction Planning, Victoria Transport Policy Institute. 15

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managed lanes but increasing the total number of highway lanes (like the DC region Express Lanes projects) generally does not decrease GHG emissions for this same reason.19 Although multiple Northern Virginia transportation agencies like to claim that their road expansion projects reduce greenhouse gas emissions,20 temporary effects from reducing congested travel are outweighed by induced driving that generates more climate pollution.21

NVTA and its member jurisdictions have committed to addressing climate change and reducing VMT One of NVTA’s core values is Sustainability and one of its responsibilities is “Developing, in coordination with affected counties and cities, regional priorities and policies to improve air quality.” NVTA member jurisdictions, through their membership in MWCOG and the TPB, have endorsed the MWCOG climate goal to cut emissions 50% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, and most have adopted their own climate targets and plans. Several of these jurisdictions have set specific metrics for reducing VMT or increasing non-auto mode share.22 Likewise, the region’s vision plan, Region Forward, sets a target to reduce per capita VMT, and even the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) has a specific objective in the state transportation plan, VTrans, to reduce VMT. Residents of Northern Virginia are overwhelmingly supportive of climate action in transportation. In NVTA jurisdictions, the vast majority of residents agreed that “elected officials need to consider the impacts of climate change when planning transportation”, ranging from 72% to 92%.23

For High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) and High-Occupancy Toll Lanes, TPB’s climate change study found that: “When adding capacity instead of converting existing capacity, HOV lanes induce new vehicle travel in urbanized areas. Regional simulation modeling studies suggest that the additional VMT will at least partially offset any emissions benefits resulting from smoother traffic flow, and in many cases will completely offset the emissions benefits. These conclusions are also supported by project-level analyses of emissions impacts of HOV and express lane additions reported in recent project environmental documents.” Climate Change Mitigation Study of 2021, Review of Climate Action Plans and Literature, July 2021, see page 61. 20 Submissions by local agencies and/or VDOT for Visualize 2045 highway and road capacity expansion projects in spring of 2021 contained these boilerplate statements: “The project assumption is that building this project will reduce congested streets and or intersections leading to a reduction in vehicle emissions,” (Loudoun County); “Project alleviates congestion to reduce GHG emissions and includes ped/bike facilities to provide non-motorized transportation options,” (Prince William County); “This project helps to alleviate traffic congestion on [road name] and allows for a more efficient transportation network. The project enhances continuity and lowers emissions from automobiles,” (Fairfax County); and “Project will improve operations and reduce congestion to mitigate GHG emissions,” (City of Manassas). See Information to support board action on the update to Visualize 2045: Regional and Federal Policy Alignment for all Capital Projects, May 2021. 21 Cortright, Joe. (2017) Urban myth busting: Congestion, idling, and carbon emissions. 22 For example, the Fairfax County Climate and Energy Action Plan (CECAP) sets a goal to increase transit and non-motorized commuting (including teleworking) to 30% by 2030, up from 18% in 2018. 23 TPB Fall 2020 Voices of the Region scientific survey of the region’s residents, breakdown of jurisdiction results, and complete survey results available here. 19

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Figure 7: Northern Virginia Residents Want Climate Action in Transportation

Source: TPB, June 2021, Voices of the Region Opinion Survey: Comparison of Selected Results at the Regional & Jurisdiction Levels, from scientific survey conducted in Fall 2020 of over 2,400 residents in Northern VA, DC and suburban Maryland.

In addition to the climate impacts, car dependence makes Northern Virginia overly dependent on oil in the short and medium term. Even with a successful and necessary rapid transition to electric vehicles, our communities will need to ensure that they are not overly reliant on expensive personal vehicles, which regardless of the technology depend on limited raw materials that are priced at the whims of international markets and geopolitics.

Widespread highway expansion fuels the cycle of autodependence and high costs to families Sprawling, auto-oriented development patterns and transportation networks not only make it hard to use transit or walk to destinations, they also lengthen every trip made, whether by car or other mode. With about three quarters of trips for non-work purposes, local development patterns and transportation networks make a big difference in household travel in addition to commute options.24 As a result, household transportation costs in the outer and

Brookings found that for residents of walkable, transit-friendly communities, the average trip length, regardless of travel mode, is 4.4 miles; while residents of automobile-oriented neighborhoods have average trip lengths of 9.1 miles. From: Tomer, Adie, Joseph Kane, and Jennifer S. Vey. October 2020. Connecting People and Places: Exploring New Measures of Travel Behavior, Brookings

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middle suburbs reflect the burden of auto-dependence. In Loudoun and Prince William Counties, for example, households spend about $15,000 per year on transportation costs, in contrast to $13,000 in Fairfax and $10,000 in Arlington.25 Many arterial widening projects by NVTA jurisdictions do incorporate improvements to adjacent pedestrian and bike infrastructure, such as adding a sidewalk where one was formerly missing. However, adding lanes for high-speed car traffic, combined with the auto-centric development patterns in the plans of the middle and outer suburban jurisdictions, mean that inclusion of a sidewalk or bike path does little to give residents of these areas realistic travel options.26 Likewise, transit investments, without supportive land use planning, can only have limited impact.27 This feedback loop of automobile-oriented transportation planning and land use is illustrated here:

Figure 8: Cycle of Automobile Dependency and Sprawl and its Equity Implications, by Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute

Source: “Cycle of Automobile Dependency and Sprawl” excerpted with permission of author from Todd Litman, February 11, 2022. Evaluating Transportation Equity, Figure 13, page 40. Victoria Transport Policy Institute.

Institution. Also, see Talking Headways Podcast: Real Talk on Development and Climate Action, March 10, 2022, for an engaging discussion of this topic by the study lead author. 25 CNT, H+T Affordability Index. 26 For example, a study of communities across California showed that having walking and biking infrastructure and more pedestrianoriented urban design did not change the total amount of daily driving of households in areas that were sprawling, had very limited transit, and with above-average income. From Table 24 in Alexander, et. al. November 2021. Safeguarding Equity in Off-Site Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Mitigation in California. Mineta Transportation Institute. 27 TPB’s 2017 Long-Range Plan Task Force found that various major transit investment scenarios, when implemented in conjunction with the region’s business-as-usual plans for continued highway-widening and land use, would each only yield a regional shift in travel of one percent or less. Land use and transportation demand management strategies in the study were the top performers on a number of metrics. For this reason, CSG has advocated an integrated land use (TOD), transit, and pricing solution.

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A More Sustainable, Livable Vision Local examples, studies, policies and plans all point the way to a better future for Northern Virginia Demonstrated benefits of more holistic planning Local examples, and regional and other national studies show that a holistic transportation and land use strategy can shift trips and reduce congestion. ●

With truly multi-modal transportation strategies tied to mixed-use development, Arlington County’s RosslynBallston corridor increased population and commercial development without increasing traffic on its main roads, and more recently the City of Falls Church has done the same.

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A study of metro Washington, showed that residents of transit-oriented development (TOD) areas drive 38% less than residents in non-TOD areas, even when other variables are considered.28

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TPB and other regional scenario studies have also shown that land use and transportation demand management strategies are the most effective ways to address traffic congestion and improve job access.29

Commitments to housing and walkable communities The region has endorsed targets to build more housing in accessible areas, where people can take more trips by walking and transit and make shorter driving trips. Through their participation in the regional COG, NVTA jurisdictions endorsed a goal to place 75% of new housing near transit and walkable activity centers. However, the current comprehensive plans of outer suburban NVTA jurisdictions fall well short of these targets.30 But this signals an opportunity for them to go in a new direction on land use, housing and transportation to give their residents housing and travel options. TPB estimates that achieving our regional housing targets combined with following through on needed transit investments would reduce traffic congestion in the region by 20%.31

Opportunities in Northern Virginia’s suburbs More affordable housing near transit in inner jurisdictions is clearly needed, in addition to their major transit investments using NVTA and other funds. Likewise, more transit investments and planning for walkable, transitoriented communities are needed in the outer suburbs beyond the notable Silver Line Phase II expansion. Transit investments should include bus rapid transit (BRT) and other frequent bus lines, which can be done cheaper and more effectively than massive highway widening and interchange projects. Key corridors and TOD locations include Route 1 in Fairfax and Prince William, Route 28 in Manassas Park, Business 234 in Manassas, and the Route 28 corridor in Fairfax and Loudoun. To truly provide options to driving, NVTA and its jurisdictions need to reframe their planning to foster walkable, compact transit-oriented communities with a mix of jobs and housing options.

Nasri, Arefeh and Lei Zhang. (2014). The analysis of transit-oriented development (TOD) in Washington D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan areas. Transport Policy 32 (2014) 172–179. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X14000055. 29 TPB. (2017). An Assessment of Regional Initiatives for the National Capital Region, Technical Report on Phase II of the TPB Long-Range Plan Task Force; also see summary article by David Alpert (2017) “The best way to improve transportation in our region is…,” Greater Greater Washington. 30 Loudoun County and Prince William County (including Manassas and Manassas Park) are planning to locate only 16% and 7%, respectively, of their new housing from 2020-2030 near transit stations, in contrast to the region’s adopted goal of 75%. Likewise for employment, Loudoun and Prince William (including Manassas and Manassas Park) only plan to locate 57% and 29%, respectively, of their new jobs in activity centers from 2015-2045, in contrast to the region’s adopted goal of 75%. From CSG analysis of MWCOG Draft 9.2 Cooperative Land Use Forecast, forecast growth in high-capacity transit station areas, and Round 9.1 Growth Trends. 31 MWCOG. (2019). The Future of Housing in Greater Washington.

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Prioritizing investments in a time of telework, climate change, and unmet needs With telework expected to continue at higher levels than pre-pandemic conditions, the future peak-period congestion that is the premise of many of the road widening projects is also in question. Are TransAction’s $16 billion in highway and road capacity expansion projects a good use of public funds, especially when we have other pressing infrastructure needs? For example, our region will need to ensure that our existing roads, bridges and rail lines can withstand the increasing flooding and extreme heat that are happening with climate change.32 The region will also need to invest in electric vehicle charging infrastructure and electric transit buses above current levels.33 In addition, many worthwhile pedestrian, bicycle, transit access, safety and complete street projects go unfunded each year.34

Recommendations for TransAction and the 6-Year Program The good news is that NVTA has alternatives. There are worthwhile unfunded ped, bike and transit projects and opportunities for land use planning to support them. This next TransAction Plan and 6-Year Program underway need to be different. And NVTA member jurisdictions need to recommit to our sustainability and equity goals through their land use planning and transportation investments. A network of walkable, compact, inclusive transit-oriented communities is the most equitable, sustainable and affordable way for Northern Virginia and the Greater Washington, DC region to grow. To help implement this over the coming months through the TransAction plan update and its proposed funding program for FY22-27, we ask NVTA to do the following: 1.

Develop and test alternative combinations of projects for its TransAction 2040 plan rather than simply comparing one large wish list with a do-nothing alternative. This approach would better inform member jurisdictions on which of their projects are truly worthwhile and how their land use planning affects their transportation needs. TPB will undertake this approach in its next update to the National Capital Region long-range plan starting this Fall, and we think that NVTA should too.

Model and show the effects of induced demand for roadway expansion projects in the six-year program and TransAction. NVTA can better communicate and educate its member jurisdictions on the role of induced demand and auto-centric land use planning that either follows or is used as the rationale for highway, arterial and other major road expansion projects.

Establish sustainability and mode share targets informed by TPB’s climate change study. Only strategies that achieve per capita VMT reduction in the range of 15-20% by 2030 and high electric vehicle adoption sufficiently reduce on-road climate pollution to meet the region’s science-based targets.

Elevate more meaningful performance metrics for the region’s residents and workers. NVTA should give higher individual weighting to travel time, job access, job access for residents of equity emphasis areas, safety, and vehicle pollution compared to its past weightings that overemphasized vehicle congestion and delay.

Require that member jurisdictions and agencies hold advertised public hearings on their proposed submissions for NVTA funding and inclusion in the long-range TransAction Plan as well as the regional Transportation Planning Board (TPB) Visualize 2045 plan. Many projects are developed at the local level and/or by VDOT and submitted to NVTA and TPB without advertised public hearings at the local level.

Northern Virginia will have an additional 400 miles of roads at risk of flooding due to climate change, according to a long-term risk analysis for the VTrans Statewide Transportation Plan conducted by the Commonwealth of Virginia Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment. 33 The MWCOG 2030 Climate and Energy Action Plan estimated that the Washington metropolitan region will need 50,000 public EV charging stations by 2030. 34 For example, see this list of unfunded Fairfax County pedestrian and bicycle projects, presented at the December 2021 Board of Supervisors Transportation Committee meeting.

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Adopt a plan and regional funding program that will foster more walkable, transit-oriented communities with a range of housing options. NVTA should shift project priorities from bigger highways and arterials to packages of projects that support walkable, transit-oriented development at high-capacity transit stations and along bus corridors. NVTA must also be a leader in helping the region pursue pricing for parking and road congestion on existing lanes and other transportation demand management measures, such as more flexible and equitable commuter benefits.

Bibliography & Acknowledgements Key works cited and resources Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA) Plans and Programs NVTA. (2017). TransAction 2040 long-range plan. Information on the ongoing update to the TransAction plan (for the year 2045) during 2022 is available at the nvtatransaction.org webpage. NVTA. (2022). Proposed FY2022-2027 Six-Year Program. NVTA (2021). NoVA Gateway, NVTA Funded Projects. Accessed February 2022 for this report.

Induced Demand Cortright, Joe (January 3, 2021). The Fundamental, Global Law of Road Congestion. CityCommentary. Handy, S. (2015). Increasing Highway Capacity Unlikely to Relieve Traffic Congestion. UC Davis: National Center for Sustainable Transportation. Retrieved from https://escholarship.org/uc/item/58x8436d. Litman, Todd. (2022). Generated Traffic and Induced Travel: Implications for Transport Planning. Victoria Transport Planning Institute. Rocky Mountain Institute. (2021). State Highway Induced Frequency of Travel (SHIFT) Calculator. Includes FAQs and Methodology. Sipress, A. (January 4, 1999). Widen the roads, drivers will come; Md.'s I-270 offers a lesson as area plans to expand other highways, interchanges: [FINAL edition].The Washington Post Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/widen-roads-drivers-will-come-md-s-i-270-offers/docview/408423555/se2?accountid=189667 Transportation for America (March 2020). The Congestion Con: How More Lanes and More Money Equals More Congestion. Volker, J. M, & Handy, S. L. (2021). The Induced Travel Calculator and Its Applications. UC Office of the President: University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. Retrieved from https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2nr6q5rc.

Transportation and Land Use – Greater Washington Region Studies Alpert, David. (2017). “The best way to improve transportation in our region is…,” Greater Greater Washington. MWCOG. (2019) The Future of Housing in Greater Washington. TPB. (2017). An Assessment of Regional Initiatives for the National Capital Region, Technical Report on Phase II of the TPB Long-Range Plan Task Force.

Transportation and Land Use – National Studies Litman, Todd. (February 11, 2022). Evaluating Transportation Equity. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. Tomer, Adie, Joseph Kane, and Jennifer S. Vey. October 2020. Connecting People and Places: Exploring New Measures of Travel Behavior, Brookings Institution.

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Climate Change and Transportation Coalition for Smarter Growth. (March 2021). Cutting Transportation Emissions by 2030 and Beyond. Cortright, Joe. (2017) Urban myth busting: Congestion, idling, and carbon emissions. CityCommentary. Fulton, Lewis and D. Taylor Reich. (2021). The Compact City Scenario – Electrified: The Only Way to 1.5°C. Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, and University of California, Davis. Georgetown Climate Center. (December 16, 2021). Issue Brief: Estimating the Greenhouse Gas Impact of Federal Infrastructure Investments in the IIJA. National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board. (January 2022). Climate Change Mitigation Study of 2021 Pugh, Bill. (December 15, 2021). Here’s what it will take for Greater Washington to cut climate pollution from cars and trucks fast enough. Greater Greater Washington.

Report author Bill Pugh, AICP CTP Senior Policy Fellow Coalition for Smarter Growth

Acknowledgements CSG intern Maeve Grady created the map and provided invaluable help preparing the report materials. CSG volunteer Kelly Jones helped compile the project data from NVTA documents. Thanks to Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and its partner organizations for development of the SHIFT calculator, which makes the tool available to community advocates across much of the United States. Also, thanks to Smart Growth America and Transportation for America for allowing use of graphics from Driving Down Emissions; to Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute for allowing excerpts of his policy papers and their graphics; and to Stewart Schwartz and Cheryl Cort of CSG for editing and feedback.