IPD uk rural index 2014

IPD UK Annual Rural Property Index Results for the year to 31st December 2013

70

2000

60

Index value (shaded area)

40 30 20

1000

10 0

% return per annum (lines)

50 1500

-10

500

-20

The IPD UK Annual Rural Property Index measures un-geared total returns to direct investment in a sample of tenanted farmland. At December 2013 the sample consisted of 4208 assets, with a total capital value of just under ÂŁ3.1bn and a total return for the year of 12.3%

-30 0

-40 Dec 83

Dec 88

Dec 93

Dec 98

Dec 03

Dec 08

Rural Property Investment Index

Commercial Property

Rural Property Investment

Residential Property

Dec -13'

IPD UK Annual Rural Property Index Total return %

Total return % 1yr

Income return % 1yr

Capital growth % 1yr

3yr

5yr

33yr

1531.5

12.3

1.4

10.7

12.4

10.9

8.6

1565.1

1733.0

10.7

5.7

4.8

7.3

8.0

9.0

318.9

365.8

14.7

2.7

11.7

11.7

11.2

-

Total return index Dec-2012

Total return index Dec-2013

Dec 1980= 100

Dec 1980 = 100

Rural property

1364.0

Commercial property Residential market lets*

*Index based at December 2000. Data sources: IPD UK Annual Property Index, IPD UK Residential Property Investment Index.

Comparative data Equities Bonds

3207.4

3799.9

18.5

-

-

8.6

12.9

11.7

-

-

-5.2

-

-

4.8

4.5

-

Data sources: MSCI, J.P. Morgan

Sponsors

Disclaimer Š IPD (Investment Property Databank Ltd.) 2014 All rights conferred by law of copyright, by virtue of international copyright conventions and all other intellectual property laws are reserved by IPD. No part of the UK Rural Property Investment Index may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior written consent of IPD. This Index is neither appropriate nor authorised by IPD for use as a benchmark for portfolio or manager performance, or as the basis for any business decision. IPD gives no warranty or representation that the use of this information will achieve any particular result for you. IPD has no liability for any losses, damages, costs or expenses suffered by any person as a result of any reliance on this information.

Rural property investment performance

Headline results

UK market total return % pa, showing effect of transactions

• In the 12 months to December 2013, the IPD UK Annual Rural Property Index returned 12.3%, higher than the 9.4% seen in 2012.

35 30 25 20

• Capital growth, at 10.7%, drove the returns, while income return dropped to 1.4%, its lowest point in the index’s 33 year history.

15 10 5

• Transaction activity had little impact on performance with the overall total return to all assets also at 12.3%.

0 -5 -10 -15

1981

1988

1994

Transactions impact

2000

2006

2013

Universe Total Return

• There was a continuing net disinvestment from tenanted farmland within the IPD index, standing at -1.6% of the value of the Index in 2013.

Market Total Return - Held properties

Other asset classes • The IPD UK Rural Property Index outperformed the commercial property market in 2013, with the IPD UK Annual Property Index achieving a total return of 10.7% for the year.

Investment performance by asset class, % pa 20

Rural Property

Equities

Commercial Property

Bonds

Residential Property

15

• Over three, five and ten years, farmland has outperformed all core UK property sectors, with returns of 12.4%, 10.9% and 12.5% respectively. UK property delivered 7.3%, 8.0% and 6.3% over the same periods.

10 5

• Against equities and gilts, commercial farmland compares well, outperforming both on a three and ten year basis, though underperforming the more volatile equities market in 2013 and over five years.

0 -5 -10 2013

3yrs

5yrs

10 yrs

33 yrs

Market commentary (provided by sponsors) Total return and the income & capital components, held property 2013 % 22 20 18

Most of the return is generated by rising values (10.7% capital growth in 2013). Although the income, which is mainly in the form of rents paid by farmers to use the land, is small (1.4% of capital employed), rents are rising due to it being a profitable period for farming.

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Rural property continued to generate impressive returns for investors in 2013. Indeed, the sector has performed well throughout the recession, producing a 10.9% total return during the last five years, outperforming all other property types and reinforcing its reputation as a valuable element of an investment portfolio.

Mainly Cereals

Intensive Arable

Capital Growth

Dairy

Income Return

Mixed Cropping Total Return

Cost breakdown on held properties 2013 % External Management Fee/ resident agents fee Insurance Repairs & Maintenance Other

There has been a considerable increase in activity in the investment market this year with purchasers chasing quality holdings.

For the last few years we have become used to a steady trickle of investments coming to the market, with most of the difference in values related to the expectations about the reversion and tax status.

This year we saw some better quality investment farmland coming to the market, of primarily arable holdings on fully repairing terms, which sold for prices well in excess of the guide prices. Just as we are seeing in the main farmland market for farms without sitting tenants, there is increasing price differentiation for quality, where investors are seeking large good quality arable holdings that offer the best opportunities for long-term rental and capital growth.

Investors seem much more optimistic about the arable sector’s profitability, possibly reflecting the higher commodity prices and better ability to control costs. Investors therefore appear to be being driven by asset performance fundamentals and not just seeing the investment market as a cheaper form of tax vehicle.

Rural property investment performance

As a result, there has been a considerable drop in yields, especially on arable investments over the year. There has also been much more interest and activity from new private purchasers coming into the market. They have primarily been seeking arable units on fully repairing terms to reduce risks from repair surprises. Furthermore since these are easier to manage, they can be controlled from a great distance away and thus appeal to a much wider range of purchasers. The fall in yields has not happened for all farm types, with more marginal, lower quality land investments struggling to sell, to such an extent that there is almost a 50% difference in yields between the best and worst.

Another factor in the market is rising farm rents. For a number of years, the higher rents being agreed for new open market lettings have been dismissed as possibly a blip. However there is a growing realisation that this rise is more long-term and that the difference in rental value between Agricultural Holdings Act and Farm Business Tenancies had become unrealistic. We are therefore starting to see rents on investment farms, with Agricultural Holdings Act tenancies, rising by significant percentages, although many landlords and tenants are phasing in this market evidence over several rent review cycles. The effect is rising investment capital values due to both expected rent reviews and agreed rents; again, this is much more of a factor for the arable units than livestock units, reflecting the sectors’ profitability.

Looking forward, the prospects for income return remain positive.

The recent period of profitability for farming should continue based on the outlook for commodity prices, further helped by the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy which was as benign as it could have been. This will support farm rents, which we expect to continue rising over the medium-term (5 years).

Rural property investment including transactions Total return

Income return

Capital value growth

Regional variations (annualised) Total return

1yr

3yr

5yr

South East

9.7

9.3

10.4

South West

12.3

13.8

12.4

Eastern

9.6

12.1

9.8

East Midlands

18.9

16.7

13.0

West Midlands

15.4

14.8

11.4

Yorks & Humberside

5.7

10.0

9.9

North West & North East

7.7

7.1

8.4

Other

8.2

10.2

7.3

All UK

12.3

12.4

10.9

Income return

1yr

3yr

5yr

South East

1.6

1.6

1.6

South West

1.5

1.5

1.5

Eastern

1.5

1.4

1.5

East Midlands

1.1

1.5

1.7

West Midlands

1.5

1.9

2.0

Yorks & Humberside

1.6

1.7

1.7

North West & North East

1.6

1.5

1.5

Other

1.6

1.6

1.4

All UK

1.4

1.5

1.6

Capital growth

1yr

3yr

5yr

South East

8.0

7.6

8.7

South West

10.6

12.1

10.8

Eastern

7.9

10.5

8.2

East Midlands

17.6

15.0

11.2

West Midlands

13.7

12.7

9.2

Yorks & Humberside

4.1

8.2

8.1

North West & North East

6.0

5.6

6.9

Other

6.5

8.5

5.8

All UK

10.7

10.7

9.2

Rural property investment held properties only Index total return Dec 1980=100

2009

9.5

1.7

7.7

1331.2

2010

12.6

1.6

10.8

2011

18.1

1.5

16.3

2012

12.2

1.5

10.5

2013

12.3

1.5

10.7

Total return

Income return

Capital value growth 6.6

Gross rent passing growth % 6.9

Initial yield

8.4

1.8

1498.9

9.0

1.6

7.3

3.9

1.8

1770.4

15.6

1.6

13.8

24.9

1.7

1986.2

9.4

1.6

7.7

4.4

1.9

2229.7

12.3

1.4

10.7

5.3

1.8

Annualised return over the last: 3 years

14.2

1.5

12.5

12.4

1.5

10.7

11.1

5 years

12.9

1.6

11.2

10.9

1.6

9.2

8.8

10 years

13.8

1.9

11.7

12.5

1.9

10.4

5.1

20 years

14.2

2.9

11.0

12.7

2.9

9.6

3.8

33 years

9.9

3.7

6.0

8.6

3.6

4.8

2.8

2.1

Index composition — 2013 overview

Index construction The IPD UK Annual Rural Property Index measures un-geared total returns to direct investment in a sample of tenanted farmland. It is compiled from valuation and management records for individual farms and estates held by institutional and private investors. Data is collected from investors and managing agents and audited by IPD. All year-end valuations used in the Index are conducted by qualified valuers working to RICS guidelines. Confidential tenant names are not disclosed to IPD. At December 2013 the sample consisted of 4208 farms/estates with a total capital value of just under £3.1bn.

The Index shows total returns on those properties that have been held throughout the year without any part purchases or sales. This basis is the most appropriate for comparison of the Index results with other asset classes.

However, the realisation of profits from reversions to vacant possession and active management, which frequently involve part sales or purchases of small parcels of land or buildings, are both integral aspects of the rural investment market. Further analysis on the total market performance is available from IPD. The Index shows annual time-weighted total returns calculated by chain linking monthly returns to capital employed.

In any month: • Total return is the sum of capital and income return on capital employed.

• Income return is income receivable net of property management and other irrecoverable revenue expenditure as a percentage of capital employed in that month.

• Capital growth is the change in capital value from one month to the next, net of any capital expenses and receipts, as a percentage of capital employed.

• Capital employed is the capital value at the start of the month plus the gross purchase price of any whole or part purchases and any on-going capital expenditure.

The monthly returns are the basic building block for returns over all other periods. Annual returns are calculated by chain linking 12 monthly values. Annual time-weighted returns calculated in this way require details of monthly cashflows and monthly capital values.

Where monthly valuations are not available, IPD computes estimated values by interpolation between successive quarterly or annual valuations.

Index progress Total value (£m)

Number of acres*

Number of assets

1981

487

512,161

-

2004

1,606

569,989

-

2005

1,657

708,233

-

2006

1,766

697,023

-

2007

2,249

676,027

-

2008

2,097

586,335

-

2009

2,097

516,412

-

2010

2,258

541,492

-

2011

2,594

506,593

-

2012

2,736

395,575

2,682

2013

3,090

338,340

4,208

* Where acreage data is available; £1830m equivalent to 59.2% of index value at December 2013

Type of lease

Number of tenants

AHA - FRI

169

AHA - Traditional Lease

445

Farm Business Tenancy

574

Regional breakdown At end 2013

Weight by region (% cap val)

Capital value (£ per acre*)

Number of assets

South East

17.3

6,745

140

South West

21.1

6,037

548

Eastern

19.8

3,931

135

East Midlands

15.9

6,778

334

West Midlands

8.2

6,701

108

Yorkshire & Humberside

3.8

6,867

21

Northern England

7.0

7,219

33

Other

6.9

3,679

199

* Where acreage data is available; £1830m equivalent to 59.2% of index value at December 2013

• Initial yield is current net rent passing divided by year-end gross capital value.

• Net investment is the sum of gross purchase costs, development expenditure, and costs of all capital improvements, less net sales receipts and all other capital receipts summed over the period.

• Turnover is the sum of gross purchase costs, net sale receipts and all other capital expenditure and receipts summed over the period.

The historical figures are unfrozen, thus any new funds or changes to current funds are reflected in the Index.

Contact Rural market:

mark.weedon@ipd.com +44.20.7336.9286

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