Market Intelligence Report
Rural House Price Survey England National figures hide north-south split in house prices Year to July 2013
smithsgore.co.uk
Annual change in house prices (i.e., change in prices compared with 12 months ago) Annual change in house prices in England
Andrew Turner
10.00
Head of Residential Agency 01904 756303 andrew.turner @smithsgore.co.uk
8.00
6.00
Prices in the north continue to fall compared with a year ago while southern prices are around 1% higher. London remains the only area where prices are growing significantly (6.3% higher in July 2013 than in July 2012).
4.00
%
If you look at England as a whole, the national statistics suggest that house prices are rising. But this hides the clear north-south split in the market.
2.00
0.00
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
01/01/2012
01/04/2012
London - Urban
There is also an interesting difference between rural and urban areas. In southern England, prices in urban areas are rising faster than in rural ones, while it is the opposite in northern areas. The north-south split is highlighted if you look at the areas with the biggest rises and falls over the past 12 months. Of the top 20 risers, only three are northern (Stoke-on-Trent, Warwickshire and Northamptonshire) compared with all but two of the top 20 fallers. The split is highlighted even more clearly by the fact that prices have risen in only 21% of northern counties compared with 73% of southern counties. The picture is one of a market on the cusp of change. The northern counties are clearly lagging behind, but the message across the country is one of increasing rises, or decreasing falls in property values. Without doubt, this is the brightest picture across the country since 2007, and reflects the improvements in other sectors of the economy, and the stimulus injected into the market by the Help to Buy scheme. August has been relatively quiet across the UK, particularly in the rural marketplace, and it will be interesting to see whether the market gathers pace as normal in the traditionally active Autumn period. The signs so far are quite promising.
01/07/2012
Northern - Urban
01/10/2012
Northern - Rural
01/01/2013
Southern - Urban
01/04/2013
Southern - Rural
>2% 0 to 2% 0% 0 to -2% >-2%
01/07/2013
Top 20 annual risers and fallers Top 20 risers
% change
Greater London
6.30
London
Stoke-on-Trent
6.10
Northern
Medway
4.10
Southern
Wokingham
3.80
Southern
Bracknell Forest
3.60
Southern
Reading
3.40
Southern
Southend-on-Sea
3.00
Southern
City of Bristol
2.90
Southern
Swindon
2.70
Southern
North Somerset
2.60
Southern
Surrey
2.50
Southern
Warwickshire
2.30
Northern
Buckinghamshire
1.80
Southern
Luton
1.80
Southern
Slough
1.80
Southern
South Gloucestershire
1.60
Southern
Brighton and Hove
1.50
Southern
Oxfordshire
1.40
Southern
Northamptonshire
1.40
Northern
Norfolk
1.30
Southern
Urban
Rural
Top 20 fallers
% change
Isle of Wight
-1.70
Southern
South Yorkshire
-1.70
Northern
North East Lincolnshire
-1.80
Northern
City of Nottingham
-1.80
Northern
Lancashire
-1.80
Northern
Warrington
-1.90
Northern
West Yorkshire
-1.90
Northern
City of Plymouth
-2.00
Southern
East Riding of Yorkshire
-2.40
Northern
Northumberland
-2.50
Northern
North Lincolnshire
-2.50
Northern
Blackburn with Darwen
-2.60
Northern
Merseyside
-2.80
Northern
Redcar and Cleveland
-3.50
Northern
Leicester
-3.60
Northern
Shropshire
-4.30
Northern
Durham
-4.40
Northern
Middlesbrough
-4.70
Northern
Blackpool
-5.10
Northern
Rutland
-5.50
Northern
Urban
Rural
Methodology and definitions This analysis of housing markets is based on all residential property transactions made in England and notified to the Land Registry, so typically 50,000 or more transactions a month. Price changes for counties are seasonally adjusted rolling averages calculated using the most robust methodology, called Repeat Sales Regression, to ensure an ‘apples with apples’ comparison. Regional and England figures are unweighted averages of price changes in the region or country. Definition of rur al and urban areas Urban and rural counties are categorised by the proportion of the population living in rural areas: Urban areas
All rural areas Rural suburban areas
Mid rural areas
Very rural areas
Less than 26% living in rural areas
26 to 44% living in rural areas
45 to 69% living in rural areas
More than 70% living in rural areas
Blackburn with Darwen Blackpool Bournemouth Bracknell Forest Brighton and Hove City of Bristol City of Derby City of Kingston Upon Hull City of Nottingham City of Peterborough City of Plymouth Darlington Greater London Greater Manchester Halton Hartlepool Hertfordshire Leicester Luton Medway Merseyside Middlesbrough Milton Keynes NE Lincolnshire
Bedford Cheshire West and Chester Essex Hampshire Kent Lancashire Leicestershire Northamptonshire Nottinghamshire Redcar and Cleveland Staffordshire Warwickshire West Berkshire West Sussex Worcestershire
Urban areas
Poole Portsmouth Reading Slough South Gloucestershire South Yorkshire Southampton Southend-on-Sea Stockton-on-Tees Stoke-on-Trent Surrey Swindon Thurrock Torbay Tyne and Wear Warrington West Midlands West Yorkshire Windsor and Maidenhead Wokingham Wrekin York
Bath and NE Somerset Buckinghamshire Central Bedfordshire Cheshire East Derbyshire Dorset East Sussex Gloucestershire Herefordshire Norfolk North Lincolnshire North Somerset Oxfordshire Suffolk Wiltshire
Cambridgeshire Cornwall Cumbria Devon Durham East Riding of Yorkshire Isle of Wight Lincolnshire North Yorkshire Northumberland Rutland Shropshire Somerset
Contacts Andover Berwick-upon-Tweed Carlisle Clitheroe Corbridge Darlington Edinburgh Marlborough Oxford Petworth Stamford Stow-on-the-Wold Winchester York
Fin Hughes Barbara Pentecost John Milburn Justin Swingler Stephen McOwan Simon Bainbridge John Coleman Edward Hall Harry St John Daniel Clay Annabel Morbey Robert Pritchard Philip Plambeck Andrew Turner
01264 774900 01289 333030 01228 546400 01200 411046 01434 632404 01325 370500 0131 344 0880 01672 529056 01865 733300 01798 345994 01780 484696 01451 832832 01962 857427 01904 756303
If you would like any commentary on housing markets, please contact Andrew Turner on 01904 756303 or andrew.turner@smithsgore.co.uk If you have any questions about the survey, please contact Dr Jason Beedell, Head of Research, on 01733 866562 or jason.beedell@smithsgore.co.uk