Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 11

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Texas Association of Builders

National, State & Local Building Industry News 2018: Issue 11

Fall leadership meetings focuses on future of the homebuilding industry

The El Paso Association of Builders sent a larger than usual delegation to the Fall Texas Association of Builders meeting in Austin this November. The delegation was led by Texas AB Vice President Randy Bowling who greeted the members who traveled to the event.

EPAB Vice President Sergio Cuartas was joined by TAB Directors Sam Shallenberger, Gus Loy, Luis Rosas, Sal Masoud, and Don Rassette.

The meetings were held at the historic Driskill Hotel downtown Austin.

The location will also be the host hotel for the 2019 Rally Day and TAB meetings in March. Preparations are under way to accommodate the nearly 1000 members who descend on the Capitol for meetings with local legislations.

There were significant items at the TAB meetings that either directly or indirectly affect membership. One hot topic was of course the recent elections that impacted the State representatives as well as the State Senate. Those

members who no longer will be in the chamber next session are several who were considered friends of the industry.

“What we had was around a 91% positive result in the state,” said Scott Norman, the Executive Vice President for TAB. “We ended up very well overall, but our work on making sure we introduce ourselves to the newest members will be the priority in these next couple of months,” Norman told the Outlook.

“We will be making sure that the wins the industry has had over the last couple of years stays put or is enhanced,” said Ned Munoz, the lead lobbyist for TAB. “We have some over 750 suggested bills already, and we expect to end up with over 7500 suggested bills by the time we get into the session,” he said.

TAB has a very good working relationship with the legislators and Senators from each district. “We pride ourselves in providing a concise and truthful agenda to them and they

respect that,” said Randy Bowling. The TAB Rally Day will take place in Austin on March 19, 2019. EPAB members will rally and meet with our local delegation on that day.

At the TAB meetings the topics ranged from impact fees to water issues. Area V, home of the El Paso Association had new appointments for the working groups. Each one of the members was able to choose the

The El Paso Association of Builders was presented with the Presidential Distinguished Service Award 2018 by outgoing Texas Association of Builders President Justin McDonald. The award was given for the over 40% increase in membership during 2018. “Today we’d like to thank the El Paso Association of Builders for their continuing efforts to make their association as well as the Texas Association of Builders better by increasing membership,” McDonald told the Outlook. “It’s efforts like these that will take the Texas Association of Builders to the 11,000-member mark in the coming year,” he continued.

The Award was earned by the EPAB during the recent membership drive. “I want to thank all of your members that participated in the drive because as

you can see we are needing every builder and associate to understand the importance of what we do for them, “2019 TAB President Robert Wood said.

“I’m very proud of all our members who worked hard to bring in the members. We now need to retain and grow again,” said Randy Bowling, TAB Vice President 2019.

In expressing his thanks EPAB Executive Vice President Ray Adauto said this. “We now have a significant increase in state directors, something that is valuable to those members who can’t be here.” “We need to grow again, and we need to retain,” he concluded.

The Award will be displayed at the EPAB office.

committees they were interested in.

The EPAB delegates were right in the mix of issues. “One thing for sure is that because of our members who are engaged at the TAB level we have a good understanding of what is coming or can provide others our experience,” said Ray Adauto. “The delegation was the largest in the past several years since we have more members,” he said.

EPAB recognized by state with achievement award

PRSRT STD U.S. POSTAGE PAID EL PASO TX PERMIT NO. 429

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Builders Outlook

10 Staging Tips for Holiday Decor

2018 Issue 11

By Melissa Dittmann Tracey, REALTOR(R) Magazine

You don’t have to go all Clark Griswold to show your holiday spirit. Decorations can be subtle, tasteful and inviting when a house is up for sale during the holiday months.

Sure, there are two sides to this: Some staging and real estate professionals assert that you shouldn’t decorate at all during the holidays, careful not to offend those who don’t celebrate the holiday.

Others argue you should definitely decorate and that a festive house can welcome buyers. How much or how little you decorate may be open to debate with your home sellers. But if you are looking to add in some tasteful holiday decor this season to a home, here are some ideas:

1. Dress up the doorstep with a wreath and planter. Silver is shiny and can reflect the sun, making it a great choice to get others to stop and take notice of a home.

2. Highlight the fireplace mantel with holiday décor to get this amenity to take center stage in the room. But don’t overcrowd it with decorations. Less is sometimes more, in this case.

3. Make a flower box more festive. Try adding berries or ornaments.

4. Offer up some holiday treats to visitors. Filled candy bowls and cookies will be a welcome surprise and may make buyers want to linger.

5. Put up a tree but have it blend into the style of the home. The tree in this dining room below compliments the subtle hues used in this French Country styled room. Have the tree coordinate with colors already used in the home’s decor.

6. Consider day and night appeal.

Keep the holiday decorations looking as good in the daylight as they are in the dark.

7. Stage the table for a holiday feast.

Show off the entertaining aspects the home has to offer.

8. Use garland to highlight a feature.

For example, get them to notice that curvy stairway with some festive garland wrapped around it.

9. Add in some poinsettias. The holiday plant aren’t only festive but the red-popping color can add to a room’s tables or doorstep.

10 Draw from greenery. Use natureinspired green to enhance a room with subtle décor.dining room ideas

2018 Issue 11

Builders Outlook

President’s Message Edmundo Dena

President el Paso association of Builders

november. Most of the outside world says it’s no-vember. i disagree especially when it comes to the association and our members. let me run through some things that have been going on and things you can see inside this issue. our november board meeting was jam packed with motions, and motions and votes and votes. First allow me to say thank you to the 2018 Board of directors for being one of the most energized and motivated i’ve had the pleasure to work with. at this last board meeting we asked for approval of some amendments to the bylaws in order to set up the coming year. Most noticeable was the need to strike the word “Treasurer” from the position Secretary Treasurer. our forward-looking association acted this year to make the position a more permanent and skilled spot on the executive. With that move we placed banker and long-time member Kathy carrillo into that important spot. Kathy has worked hard to make the transition

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PRINT & INTERNET PUBLISHING

Thanksgiving is all about the ‘giving’

as easy and pain free for the board as possible. We now have a treasurer who knows money and how it moves. She along with our two cPa’s and Finance committee give a great deal of transparency to the board. She has been working with edgar garcia and Ray to get the financials in a friendlier order with the goal of making that happen in 2019.

Secondly, we announced the selection of builder member Sal Masoud to the ladder and associate member luis Rosas to associates Vice President for 2019. Both selections are tremendous and show that the association is on a good start for 2019. congratulations and thanks to both.

The Texas Builder meetings took place in austin and the ascension of Randy Bowling to Vice President is huge.

Randy will lead the Texas association of Builders in 2020, all 11,000 members.

He joins a relatively short list of el Paso members who have done so in our 72year history. let’s start grooming

someone for the near future.

Sometimes your president thinks way too small, as in i asked angelique Roman from Sierra Title to see if we could help five families for Thanksgiving.

What ends up happening is that our members were super generous and at last count we are helping around 50 families. i think that when you ask angelique to do something she not only says yes, but also tells you to do more. i asked for five, she said let’s do ten, and then Ray sends out this letter…the rest is history. Thanks to everyone who has chipped in. i’d also like to thank those members who on their own have helped the community. Those unsung heroes are helping those who need it in these sometimes rough times. one month to go and i’m more energized than ever. let me just say, THanKS FoR giVing liKe YoU do eVeRYdaY, noT JUST on a HolidaY. god Bless you and yours. get ready for more in december.

Social Media & WeBSiTe conTenT ManageMenT e-Mail neWSleTTeRS coMMUnicaTion STRaTegY ediToRial SeRViceS

Get Creative. Make it Snappy.

915•820•2800 www.snappypublishing.com

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Executive’s Message Ray Adauto, Executive Vice President EPAB

The recent TAB meetings had many different topics to discuss. One that crept up was the continuing issue of a small group of real estate agents who are using these good times to do what on the onset seems unethical. It also has the distinction of being a problem caused by some builders that is adversely affecting other builders. What is it? It’s the outrageous bonuses being paid to agents for selling a builder’s new home. It’s above and beyond the normal commission, it’s even been thought of as threat by those not doing it.

What I found out is that this practice is small overall but growing as competition for sales begins to enter the housing upturn and builders unprepared for any delay are placing huge incentives out in the market to move product. I know that some of you will be thinking, well it’s the free market at work. I would at first glance think so also, but I want to

Builders Outlook

2018 Issue 11

Builders and sales bonuses deserve a second look share with you what I hear nearly every week from builders who can’t or won’t succumb to this practice.

And agents who wouldn’t think of doing this either.

“I can’t stand when I get a call and the first thing asked is what is the bonus,” one builder said. “I tell them what they get is an outstanding house that their clients will love them for.” “Then I hear the click.”

On the agent side I’ve heard the same. “We don’t have to play with this, and frankly it’s our job to find the best match for the customers’ needs rather than to worry about a bonus or not,” a Realtor I know told me.

So, on either side of the equation lies something that no one is really talking about except in whispers. At the recent TAB meetings, I asked if this practice was isolated to El Paso.

It isn’t. One of the country’s largest homebuilder said that his sales managers report the same practice in Dallas and Houston. “You’re not

going down that slippery slope if you have ethics,” he said. “But I can understand it more when a builder is sitting with too much inventory, a problem we don’t have,” he concluded. Others in the room filled with builders, developers and Realtors all agreed that it’s not a good ethical practice. “With the markets going at full steam it’s the interesting thing to see that builders are willing to give up most if not all their profits for one sale.” Another developer said that he’s seen it and find it’s a practice that should be turned into the Texas Real Estate Commission. “I have a phone number and that’s normally all I have,” one builder said when that comment was pushed. “I can’t turn in a phone number,” the builder chagrinned. Others said that if it gets really bad then the state may step in and file to remove someone’s Real Estate license. “All you need is a little proof that agents aren’t showing

ethical practice and that could be the end of the ride for them,” was heard.

The issue has some traction as it is becoming more and more apparent that some builders, as was heard, will sacrifice their livelihood in order to get rid of inventory. “If they can’t stand the heat then they aren’t going to be around long, and that also is bad for the consumer,” one builder said.

In effect there is an ethical challenge that some real estate agents are ready to report. “It gives all of us a bad rap to have someone just in it for the immediate gain,” “I won’t play it because I want my builder to be around a long time. “I would suggest that those $10,000 bonuses could well be spent elsewhere like in your future as a builder. Don’t fall into a trap. This way you can rest assured that you have a product that isn’t in a fire sale.

National Builder News

2018 Issue 11

Multifamily Decline Pushes Overall Housing Starts Down

n Led by a drop in multifamily production, total housing starts fell 5.3 percent in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2 million units, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Commerce Department.

The September reading of 1.2 million is the number of housing units builders would start if they maintained this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts edged down 0.9 percent to 871,000 units.

Meanwhile, multifamily starts— which includes apartment buildings and condos—fell 15.2 percent to 330,000.

Overall permits—which are an indicator of future housing production—registered a 0.6 percent drop in September, also due to multifamily softening.

Multifamily permits decreased 7.6 percent to a 390,000 unit pace while single-family permits rose 2.9 percent to an annualized rate of 851,000.

“Housing starts are in line with builder sentiment, which shows that builders are overall confident in the housing market but continue to face supply-side challenges,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “Though lumber prices have declined recently, builders remain concerned about labor shortages, especially as the number of unfilled construction jobs has reached a post-recession high.”

“This report is consistent with our forecast for gradual strengthening in the single-family sector of the housing market following the summer soft patch,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “A growing economy coupled with positive demographics for housing should keep the market moving forward at a modest pace in the months ahead.”

Regionally in September, combined single-family and multifamily housing starts rose 29 percent in the Northeast and 6.6 percent in the West. Starts fell 13.7 percent in the South and 14 percent in the Midwest.

Permit issuance rose 11.1 percent in the West and 0.6 percent in the South. Permits were down 9.8 percent in the Northeast and 18.9 percent in the Midwest.

Builders Outlook

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Mortgage & Banking

/www.marketwatch.com

—Changes in affordability depend on the tug-of-war between rising household income and inflationdriven pressure on mortgage rates, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming— First American Financial Corporation FAF, -0.09% a leading global provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for real estate transactions, today released the July 2018 First American Real House Price Index (RHPI). The RHPI measures the price changes of single-family properties throughout the U.S. adjusted for the impact of income and interest rate changes on consumer house-buying power over time at national, state and metropolitan area levels.Because the RHPI adjusts for house-buying power, it also serves as a measure of housing affordability.

Real house prices remained flat between June 2018 and July 2018.

Real house prices increased 12.2 percent year over year.

Consumer house-buying power, how much one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, increased 0.9 percent between June 2018 and July 2018, and declined 3.7 percent year over year.

Average household income has increased 2.9 percent since July 2017 and 53 percent since January 2000.

Real house prices are 37.9 percent below their housing boom peak in July 2006 and 12.0 percent below the level of prices in January 2000.

Chief Economist Analysis: How Will Affordability in 2019 Fare Amid Rising Rates?

“The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is just around the corner and a rate hike is almost certain, according to experts, which will trigger conversations about rising mortgage rates across the housing industry. While changes to the federal funds rate won’t necessarily spur further increases in mortgage rates, mortgage rates are

Builders Outlook

2018 Issue11

Outlook for Affordability in 2019 amid Rising Rates expected to rise nonetheless,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American.

“Mortgages rates typically follow the same path as long-term bond yields, which are expected to increase due to inflation driven by healthy economic growth. This inflation-driven increase in long-term bond yields will, in turn, increase mortgage rates,” said Fleming. “Due in large part to the strong economy, the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate has increased 56-basis points over the past 12 months.”

Five Percent Mortgage Rates Likely in 2019 “Consensusamong economists is that the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate will increase from its current rate of 4.53 percent to an average of 5 percent in 2019,” said Fleming. “Last week, we analyzed what a rate of 5.0 percent could mean for existinghome sales. The result? Home sales will continue to grow despite rising rates, due to the strength of economy. But, what will 5 percent mortgage rates mean for affordability?

“The First American Real House Price Index (RHPI) measures consumer house-buying power, how much one can buy based on household income and the 30-year,

fixed-rate mortgage,” said Fleming.

“Shifts in income and interest rates either increase or decrease consumer house-buying power or affordability. When incomes rise and/or mortgage rates fall, consumer house-buying power increases.

“If the mortgage rate increased from its current level of 4.5 percent to the expected level of 5 percent, assuming a 5 percent down payment, and the July 2018 average household income of $64,000, we find that house-buying power falls a modest 5.5 percent, from $366,000 to $346,000,” said Fleming. “In this hypothetical 5 percent mortgage rate environment, consumer-house buying power would be 11 percent lower than it was in July 2017, when the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate was 3.97 percent.”

Consumer House-Buying Power Remains 2.2 Times Greater than January 2000 “It’s evident that rising mortgage rates have an impact on affordability.

However, the root cause of higher inflation and, in turn, rising mortgage rates is surging wage growth. In fact, our estimate of average household income, based onCensusandBureau of Labor Statisticsdata, reached the highest level since 2000,” said Fleming.

“Average household incomes are 53 percent higher today than in January 2000. On the other hand, the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate remains near its historic low point. As a result, consumer house-buying power is still 2.2 times higher today than in January 2000,” said Fleming.

“Changes in affordability depend on the tug-of-war between rising household income and inflationdriven pressure on mortgage rates.”

The five states with the greatest year-over-year increase in the RHPI are: Nevada (+18.7 percent), Ohio (+17.9 percent), New York (+16.8 percent), New Jersey (+15.6 percent), and Michigan (+15.4 percent).

No state had a year-over-year decrease in the RHPI in June.

July 2018 Real House Price Local Market Highlights Among the Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) tracked by First American, the five markets with the greatest year-over-year increase in the RHPI are: Cleveland (+24.4 percent), Las Vegas (+21.8 percent), San Jose, Calif. (+21.8 percent), Jacksonville, Fla. (+17.7 percent), and Cincinnati (+17.7 percent).

No CBSA had a year-over-year decrease in the RHPI in June.

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2018 Issue 11

Economic Forescast

Elliot Eisenberg Economic & Policy Blog

The Economy is Not Overheating

Overheating (economics) Boom periods are often characterised by overheating in the economy. An economy is said to be overheated when inflation increases due to prolonged good growth rate and the producers produce in excess thereby creating excess production capacity.

The US unemployment rate recently fell to 3.7%, a rate last seen in 1969.

This very low rate is giving the Fed and many other market watchers reasons to worry that the labor market, and thus the overall economy, may be overheating. While it is true we are late in a business cycle, labor market indicators suggest that we are not as late as we may think. To be precise, job growth remains too high, wage growth remains too low, and the employment rate still has room to rise before we run out of workers and hit full employment.

Over the past year, the US workingage population has grown by about 225,000 a month. Given that 60.4% of that population works, that means the US economy needs to create 136,000

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Builders Outlook

jobs/month to keep the unemployment rate stable. However, over the past three months job growth has averaged 218,000/month, and over the past year 211,000/month. As a result, the economy is creating more jobs than required to simply absorb new labor market entrants. This alone suggests that the economy is not at full employment. When we reach full employment, net new job growth will settle at or about 136,000 jobs/month.

Another sign that we are not on the verge of an overheated labor market is that wage growth remains quite subdued. When an economy is short workers, employers compete for scarce labor, and in the process push up wages, causing inflation to rise. But we see none of that. Over the past

year labor productivity growth has been 1.3%, and if you add to that the Fed’s 2% inflation target, you get 3.3%. Wage growth below 3.3% will not cause inflation to increase. And, sure enough, wage growth over the past year has been just 3.1%. If the economy really was overheating, wages would be growing at a much faster rate.

Another clue that the labor market will not seize up anytime soon is that the percentage of working Americans at 60.4% remains well below its prerecession peak of 63.4%. While a return to 63.4% is unlikely, due to an aging population, more persons going to college, and a few other factors, the rate has been steadily rising since hitting a cyclical low of 58.2% in July 2011. Moreover, the percentage of 25 to 54-year-old persons (those of prime working age) that are working has been rising for almost eight straight years but is still full one percentage point below its pre-recession peak of 80.3%. As a result, I suspect that the percentage will rise at least a bit higher before it tops out.

Lastly, the unemployment rate is no longer as good a measure of labor force slack as it was in the past. Here

is one example why: Until recently, finding part time work that still allowed one to go on job interviews was virtually impossible. Thus, many who looked for a job were out of necessity unemployed. Today, with platforms such as Uber, TaskRabbit, Fiverr and others, one can be employed while actively looking for a more suitable fulltime job. As a result, comparing the low unemployment rate of today to similar rates in the past will lead one to conclude that the labor market is tighter than it really is.

Despite a near fifty year low in the unemployment rate, because of technological changes and a careful reading of demographics and data, it seems that the labor market still has some room to vigorously expand before monthly employment growth must slow. As a result, the Fed need not worry that the 3.7% unemployment rate is indicative of an economy that is about to overheat due to a worker shortage – yet.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving, a merry Christmas a happy 2019 and see you in January! (Remember, I will not be writing an article in December).

Your retirement gets closer every single day.

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BUILDERS OUTLOOK • EPAB ON THE SCENE

2018 Issue 11

The Texas Association of Builders installs Bowling as Vice President

The 2019 Texas Association of Builders installation and swearing in took place in Austin on November 15-16 at the historic Driskill Hotel. At the installation El Paso Association of Builders Past President and TAB Life Director Randy Bowling was installed as Vice President. “The reality of what’s to come has hit me,� Bowling told the Outlook. What he means is that this is his year to prepare for his Presidency in 2020. “I finally had an opportunity to reflect and realize it’s only a year away,� he said.

The whole TAB leadership was installed at the last official TAB Board meeting for 2018. President Justin McDonald turned the gavel over to 2019

President Robert Wood of Lubbock HBA. “I can’t begin to tell you how grateful I am for this delegation from El Paso, and the tremendous job Randy and the gang did in membership,� Wood said. “Randy and I will be looking for continued successes this year,� he said.

The job of President of TAB means that the member leads about 10,400 members from around the state through 27 affiliated local associations. “I look forward to working with Robert this year, and to help him make a difference at the legislative session in March,� said Sergio Cuartas, incoming President for the EPAB.

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Mortgage Bankers Association

El Paso Mortgage Bankers Association held a fun golf outing at TOP Golf, El Paso. The event was held at the newest Texas TOP Golf location on the westside at Montecillo. “We are grateful that the El Paso Association of Builders supports the Mortgage Bankers Association, and vice versa,” said Dean Innis of Rocky Mountain Mortgage Company. The team was a Hodge podge of experienced and rookie “golfers” who enjoyed the unseasonal warm weather. “We were hoping to be able to get a nice day and we did,” said 2019 EPMBA president Brenda Aguirre. She takes over the helm for Gilbert Pedregon who had a very successful year. “We have had some good gatherings this year and I think we made a huge move when we brought together the associations involved in housing,” he said. “I want to thank Edmundo Dena for his leadership at the EPAB and

encouraging the work we all do,” Pedregon said.

As you can attest by the pictures the team had a great “coach” in Henry Tinajero. “I think its important that you get enjoyment out of golfing and so I wanted to share with the team what I do,” he said. The team consisted of Henry Tinajero, Edmundo Dena, Angelique Roman, Margaret Adauto and Kathy Carrillo. For Kathy it was a way to do two things. “I wanted to come see what this whole TOP Golf thing was so that we can consider doing something like this next year for the association. It was also a great time to network with my peer groups,” she said. “For me it was a good time to enjoy the different people and actually have a chance to participate,” said Angelique. “It was also fun to see mom try to hit the ball,” she continued. Yep “mom” is Margaret and she did well. “I think when you told Margaret to imagine your face on the ball is when she finally connected,” said coach Tinajero to Ray Adauto. “There was nothing I could show her that would have been any better,” he chided.

There was a challenge going on among the other teams, made up of many of our members. “I want to thank my team for doing so well. It was fun,” said Steve Raney, Texas Title. “I can also say we had a great time,” said Greg Davis who along with his team GECU enjoyed the time.

Stay tuned for some news on the TOP Golf Challenge 2019. The committee is already working on dates.

TAB President Selfie You should know that the 2019 TAB President, Robert Wood, is no stranger to the EPAB. A few years back he installed our board and officers plus he’s been working with the group for years.

At the TAB meetings in November Ray Adauto asked Robert to take a picture of our group. He did, said “here you go” and walked off. The result is hilarious as you can see. Funny stuff. By the way, he did get a real group shot. Thanks Robert, and congratulations. We have a feeling that this coming year is going to be a lot like the Peter Pan ride at Disneyland. “All right boys and girls, here we go!”

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#Real Texas builders

Builders Outlook

2018 Issue 11

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www.elpasobuilders.com

The El Paso Association of Builders encourages you to work with our members.

Builder members as of September 1, 2018 Bain Construction Scott Bain Althon Investments, LLC Jose Luis Martin Bella Vista Custom Homes, Inc. Edgar Garcia BIC Homes Antonio Cervantes Blue Sage Homes, LLC Jaime Gonzalez Blue Star Construction Carlos Villasana Bowling Construction Randy Bowling Carefree Homes Richard Aguilar Casas De Leon, LLC Nick Bombach Cisco Homes LLC Francisco Arroyos III Classic American Homes Priscilla Hernandez Crown Heritage Homes Lydia Mlouhi Cullers & Caldwell Builders John Cullers Cullers Homes Jason R. Cullers D B Innovations LLC Dan Berry Dawco Home Builders Walter O. Lujan Deal 2 Deal Custom Homes Delton Deal Del Rio Engineering, Inc. Sal Masoud Diamond Homes, LLC Valerie Baquera Donald Ward Builder, Inc. Donald Ward E. Valencia Land Development LLC Eddie Valencia Eclat Homes & Designs Veronica Guerra Edward's Homes, Inc. Eduardo Fernandez EPT Bella Custom Dream Homes Leti & Javier Navarette EPT Land Communities David Bogas Everest Homes Edmundo Dena, Jr. Fortune Custom Homes Javier Andrade Gaddy Construction Charles Gaddy GMF Custom Homes, LP Frank Torres Guel Construction Rudy Guel Hakes Brothers, LLC Chris Hakes Hanson Asset Management, LP Russell Hanson Homes by Design Leslie Driggers Hoard Hunt Communities, LLC Kathy Parry ICON Custom Builder, LLC. Carlos Garcia Industrial Realty Group Incorporated Brent D. Harris JER Custom Homes, LLC Jorge E. Rodriguez Kayton Lee Residential, Inc. Brianna Barnes Lloyd Hamilton Contruction Lloyd Hamilton, III LMJ Construction Co., LLC Mike Lopez Loyalty Homes Gustavo Loy M A Builders & Design, LLC Mustafa Ali Maravilla Homes Victor Robles Medlock Commercial Contractors LLC Steve Medlock Metro Homes, Inc. Judith Arrunada, Fernando Torres

Millennium Homes Dan Ruth Pacifica Homes, Inc. Juan Jose Vasquez Padilla Homes Misael Navarrete Palo Verde Homes Edgar Montiel Pointe Homes Carlos Villalobos Porter Homes Albert Porter R.C. Baeza & Associates Robert C. Baeza R.E. Welch Contractor Gordon Welch Rassette Homes, Inc. Donald Rassette Rosewood Design and Build Brianna Barnes Santana Custom Homes Fernando Santana Southwest Land Development Serv.

Doug Schwartz Spanish Oaks Custom Homes Juan R. Saenz The Heritage Group David Bingham Trejo Construction Co. Juan Trejo Tropicana Building Corp.

Bobby Bowling IV Tropicana Development Greg Bowling Tropicana Homes Randy Bowling Tropicana Properties Demetrio Jimenez Vallance Construction LLC Oswaldo Prieto Villagi Homes, LLC Kristi Eddings Vista del Sol Archetectural Design Luis J. Lopez Will Harvey Development Will S. Harvey Winton/Flair/Accent Homes Herschel Stringfield Associate members as of September 1, 2018

150 Sunset Danny Heredia 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty James Hebert 4 Tech A/C Service Enrique Hernandez 84 Lumber Ernie Chavez 915 Siteworks, LLC Hugo Jasso A C Refrigeration, LLC Angel Cabrera A Plus Remodeling & Repairs Martin Arroyos ABC Supply Co., Inc. Larry Eck Acme Brick Company Steve Bush Adams Moulding & Lumber Tom Swahlen Agustin Favela Concrete Agustin Favela Alden R & R Services, LLC Alejandro Dena Allbrite Electrical Carlos Nunez Alvarado Plastering & Stucco, LLC Jose Enrique Alvarado Amelia's Janitorial Services Amelia Gomez Area Iron & Steel Works, Inc. Fred L. Edmonston Jr. Atrium Homes Ricardo Bocardo Jr. Bank of Texas Ray Owen Baron Supply David Trammell Barragan & Associates Benito Barragan

Barraza Drywall Corp.

Ignacio Barraza Barrett Airworks Alexandro Castro Bassett Woodworks Danny Murillo Beasley, Mitchell & Co., LLP Brad Beasley Bella Vista Realty Grisel Ortega Belmont's Air Conditioning, Inc. Rafael Belmonte Big A Construction Thelma Vasquez BMC Select David Quintana Boise Cascade Mike Flores Border Construction Specialties Ricardo Yvellez Border Solar Javier Ruiz Bordertown Carpets Brian M. Abraham Builders Source Appliance Gallery Sandra Lucero Bukaty Financial Companies Group Ruth Rivera C. D. Lee/Britton Insurance & Bonding Anthony Landavazo/Lisa Daniels Cabinet Masters Mike Robles Carpet Warehouse Erez Belkin Casa Ford & Casa Nissan Luke Lowenfield Castillo Electric Jose Del Val CEA Engineering Group Jorge L. Azcarate Central Texas Metal Roofing Supply Co.,Inc. Ben Garza, III Centricity Brent R. Morgan Century 21 The Edge Scott Kesner Citizens Loan Center Jim Easley City Bank Texas Bob Kotarski City Lights Thomas Brown CMF Carlos Munoz Cognent, Inc. Martin Paredes Commercial Insurance Brokers, Inc. Ken Foster Conde, Inc. Conrad Conde Copenhagen Imports Flemming Carlsen CQC Testing and Engineering,LLC Jaime Rojas David Hernandez Cabinets David Hernandez David J. Ellis Fee Office for Sierra Title David J. Ellis De La Torre Iron Works Alfredo de la Torre Delek US dba 7 Eleven Sonja Scanlan Demcon Disposal Management, LLC Maria Elena (Nena) Gomez Desert Quest Plumbing Hector Gonzalez Designer's Mart Valerie Edmiston Diaz Services, Inc. Emmanuel Diaz Dominguez Insurance Agency Victoria Dominguez Doors and More Miguel Moran Dorney Security John Dorney Dunn-Edwards Paints Nathan Gordon DWS Building Supply Sabrina Voorhies E.F. Building Materials, Inc Efren Fraire

Eagle Custom Cabinets Juan Benabidez Eagle Roofing Products Scott Aguilar Edgar's Flooring Edgar Enriquez EDLR Platering Eduardo De La Rosa Edmund Esper Edmund Esper El Paso Audio Video by Design Joe Gutierrez El Paso Building Materials Ken Wade El Paso Disposal Irma Parsons El Paso Mortgage Bankers Association Gilbert Pedregon El Paso Times Sal Hernandez, Justin Riley El Paso Truss Luis Mendiola El Paso Winnelson Rene Goldfien Electrolux NA Adger Colley Elizardo Garcia Electric Elizardo Garcia ERA Sellers & Buyers Karla Reyes ESS Environmental and Safety Solutions Jose L. Garcia Ramirez EZE-R-DESIGNS Leticia Mata Farmers Ins.-Mercedes Ruiz Mercedes Ruiz Felipe Rocha Construction Felipe Rocha Ferguson Enterprises Inc. Albert Holguin Fire Smoke N' Grill Bill Owen First American Bank Louis Sauceda First Light Federal Credit Union Lorenzo Revelez First National 1870 Haley Merritt Firth, Johnston, Bunn & Kerr Jay Kerr Forge Factory Strength & Conditioning Edmundo Portillo Foxworth Galbraith Lumber Dan Villarreal Franklin Building Materials Ricardo Aguilar or Cristina Sheldon G & G Enterprises Gen. Contractor Juan F. Garcia G2 Ram Electric Luis Cano GCC Sun City Materials,LLC Antonio "Tony" Chavez GE Appliances Christine R. Villanueva GECU- Greater El Paso Credit Union Danny Galindo GEPAR-Greater El Paso Assoc. of Realtors Jason Sanchez Go Pro Refrigeration Humberto Diaz Goodman Mfg. Jorge Guajardo Great American Insurance Group Julie Tomlinson Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce David Michael Jerome H P Roofing & Construction Heriberto Prieto Harris Real Estate Group Lane Harris Haskins Electric Charles B. Haskins, Jr. Hector De.La Canal Real Estate Group Hector De. La Canal Hector Phillips fee Office for Sierra Title Hector Phillips Hercules Industries John Chaney Hernandez Roofing Concepcion Hernandez Home of Texas Amanda Eason

2018 Issue 11

Home Pros Real Estate Group Penny Moore Homes of El Paso Riley Stephens HUB International Luis Rosas Imperial Construction Alexandro Garcia Inter National Bank Natalie Ojeda Interceramic Tile & Stone Gallery David Holguin J & H Concrete & Post Tension Jorge Herrera J. B. Laminates Gina Rodriguez J. C. Balcorta Painting Cruz Balcorta J. F. Plastering Juan Florez Jack White Building Specialties Claudia Lardizabal James L. Ellis, CPA, PC Jim Ellis JFM Enterprises, Inc. Jaime Flores Jimmy Garza Emergency Water Removal Jimmy Garza Jobe Materials, LP Charlie Tellez Joe Bernal Insurance & Financial Services, Inc. Joe M. Bernal Jose Moreno Dry Wall Jose Moreno Juan Carlos Perez Grading Juan Carlos Perez Keenan Supply Nancy Rivas Keller Williams Mo Goodarzi Keller Williams Susan Flores L & P Building Supply Denise McConnell LCR Resource, Inc. Ralph Sanchez Legacy Real Estate Services/TTi Prop. Man. Patrick Tuttle Leon Real Estate Jorge Leon LOI Engineers Bernardino Olague Lone Star Title Co. of El Paso Sam Trimble Love Engineering, Inc. Montez Love Lowes Home Improvement Johnny Rodriguez Loyas Shutters Alfredo Loya MagicStone Marco Gomez Majestic Realtors Patti Musshorn

Builders Outlook

MAK Roofing & Construction Felix Vizarreta Marlo Building Services Roberto Martinez Masco Contract Serv dba Gale Insul William Homan Massey Johnson Josie Ledesma McCoy's Building Supplies Doug Danner Merrill Lynch Thomas Gabriel Miguel Sanchez Cano Miguel Sanchez Cano Minerva Al-Tabbaa Realtor Minerva Al-Tabbaa Mini Concrete Materials Joe Soto Moen Frank Graf Monster Link Marketing Raul Mendoza Moreno Cardenas, Inc. Roberto Moreno Morrison Supply Sam Shallenberger MTI Ready Mix, Inc. Tony Mullen New American Funding Tania Guzman New Era Foam George Tollen New Start Insulation Jose Carreon Oropeza Concrete Angel Oropeza Parra's A/C and Heating Service Aureliano Parra Pate & Appleby, LLP Richard De Santos Patriot Mortgage Randy Bowling Pella Windows Jason Bates Performance Glass & Aluminum Hector Hernandez Perl Mortgage Stephen Sepulveda, Gilbret Pedregon Polar Mechanical LLC Francisco Amezquita Post Tension Steel Dennis Moore Powerfoam Insulation Arnie Pedersen Prewire of El Paso, Inc. Steven Drury Pride industries dba Pride Ascend Dr. Lonny Wright Q Martins Plumbing Jose Martinez Quality Granite Hector Porras Ramon Romero Painting Ramon Romero

Randall Smith, CPA Randall Smith Rebath of El Paso/Las Cruces Lisa Walling Remcon Self Storage Will Harvey Rey Construction Manuel Reyes RGR Roofing, LLC Marco Rodriguez Richman Group Affordable Housing Corp.

Kevin Hoffman Rito Magallanes Rito Magallanes Rocky Mountain Mortgage Company Dean Inniss Roe, Brad Bradley Roe Rudolph Chevrolet Mike Ruffin S & J Drywall, LLC Yair Jalil & Sergio Jalil Saldivar Electric, Inc. Martin A. Saldivar Sarabias Blue Sanitation Monica Brown SBNG, P.C. Tyler Smith Segura Framing Erika Segura Senercon Javier Ruiz Senpai Training and Development Leonardo Corral Sergio Herrera Framing Sergio Herrera Serrano's Construction Juan Serrano Service Master Commercial Heidi Avedician Sherwin Williams Paint Cruz Lopez Sierra Title Company /Lawyers Title Angelique Roman, Marielsa Pulido Simpson Strong-Tie Company, Inc. Ken Donham Snappy Publishing Ted Escobedo Soil Mechanics Lorenza Escareno Solar Smart Living Larry Perea Southwest Décor El Paso Corporation Chris Matthews Southwestern Prewire Joe Trejo Spectrum Technologies Miled Daou St. Mary's Custom Shutters Dolores Lopez Startech Heating and Air Conditioning Luis Procter Stewart Title of El Paso Cindy Bilbe

11

Stone City Rocks Chris Baca StrucSure Home Warranty Scott Whisenant Su Casa Magazine Bob Skolnick Supreme Lending Lisa Wren Sun City International Doors Jorge Carmona Sun City Spray Foam Fred Reynolds Sun City Winnelson Dean Moore Sun West Windows and Glass Ernie Hernandez Texas Gas Services Mica Short Texas Title Company Steve Raney TFCU Yolie Melendez-Estrada The Dorian Group/Ocean Gallery USA Miguel Angel Mercado The Home Systems Heating & Cooling, Inc. Jesus Chain The Iron Snail Inc. David Zuniga Trane Residential Solutions Robert Meske/ Kathleen Chacon TRE & Associates Linda Troncoso Trim Team Juan & Kris Hernandez USA General Contractors Javier Olmos United Site Services Ramon Armendariz Value Stone Isabel Chacon Vision Consultants, Inc. Kelly Sorenson VMP Painting Victor Prieto W.W. Sales Eric Hoppes Western Heritage Bank Kathy Carrillo WestStar Home Loans Cinco Houghton WestStar Bank David Osborn WestStar Title Rachel Valles Whirlpool Gwen Walker Wolf Air Arturo Alcantar X Construction Emmanuel Chavarria

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12

Builders Outlook

2018 Issue 11

AND THE WINNER IS...

CELEBRATING THE BEST OF OUR INDUSTRY

Real TexaS builder AWARDS EL PASO ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS

JANUARY 17, 2019

©

2018 Issue 11

13

Builders Outlook

Upcoming Events

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14

Builders Outlook

Market Watch nahb.org

Builder Confidence Drops as Housing Affordability Rises

Growing affordability concerns resulted in builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes falling eight points to 60 in November on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Despite the sharp drop, builder sentiment still remains in positive territory.

“Builders report that they continue to see signs of consumer demand for new homes but that customers are taking a pause due to concerns over rising interest rates and home prices,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “For the past several years, shortages of labor and lots along with rising regulatory costs have led to a slow recovery in single-family construction,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “While home price growth accommodated increasing construction costs during this period, rising mortgage interest rates in recent months coupled with the cumulative run-up in pricing has caused housing demand to stall.”

With the prospect of future interest rate hikes in store, Dietz said that builders have adopted a more cautious approach to market conditions and urged policymakers to take note.

“Recent policy statements on economic conditions have lacked commentary on housing, even as housing affordability has hit a 10year low,” said Dietz. “Given that housing leads the economy, policymakers need to focus more on residential market conditions.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current singlefamily home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.”

Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All of the major HMI indices posted declines. The index measuring current sales conditions fell seven points to 67, the component gauging expectations in the next six months dropped 10 points to 65 and the metric charting buyer traffic registered an eight-point drop to 45.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 58.

The Midwest edged one point lower to 57, the South declined two points to 68 and the West dropped three points to 71

2018 Issue 11

Builders Outlook

2018 Issue 11

6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905 915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038

â– ExEcuTivE OFFicERS PRESiDENT Edmundo Dena vicE PRESiDENT Sergio Cuartas SEcRETARY Edgar Garcia ASSOCIATES VICE PRESIDENT Sam Shallenberger ExEcuTivE vicE PRESiDENT Ray Adauto PAST PRESiDENT Don Rassette â– cOMMiTTEE cHAiRS Membership Ted Escobedo Patrick Tuttle

El Paso Disposal

772-7495

Luis Rosas, HUB International Brenda Aguirre, Rocky Mountain Mortgage Sandra Lucero, Builders Source Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing Jorge Herrera, J&H Post Concrete & Post Tension Angelique Roman, Sierra Title Patrick Tuttle, Legacy Real Estate Sam Trimble, Lone Star Title Patricia Martinez, Stewart Title Randall Smith, Randall Smith, CPA ■TAB STATE DiREcTORS Randy Bowling - Life Director Sam Shallenberger Edmundo Dena

â– NATiONAL DiREcTORS Bobby Bowling, III Demetrio Jimenez Leslie Driggers Hoard -Alternate Antonio Cervantes - Alternate

Finance committee Kathy Carrillo/Treasurer Henry Tinajero

Honorary Life Members Mark Dyer Wayne Grinnell Don Henderson Anna Gill Brad Roe Rudy Guel

Community Outreach Angelique Roman Brenda Aguirre Patricia Martinez

Land Use Council Sal Masoud

Education Kelly Sorenson Delton Deal

■ADviSORY TO THE BOARD Jay Kerr, Firth, Johnston, Bunn & Kerr

■BOARD OF DiREcTORS Builders: Delton Deal, Deal 2 Deal J.J. Vasquez, Pacifica Homes Leti Navarrete, Bella Custom Dream Homes Bud Foster, Southwest Land Development Kathy Parry, HUNT Communities Lee Gillett, Classic American Laura Loy, Loyalty Homes Walter Lujan, Dawco Homes Fernando Torres, Metro Homes Leslie Driggers Hoard, Homes by Design Carlos Garcia, ICON Custom Sal Masoud, Del Rio Development Fernando Santana, Santana Custom Homes Associates: Joe Bernal, Joe Bernal Insurance Henry Tinajero, WestStar Bank Kathy Carillo, Pioneer Bank John Chaney, Hercules Industries

2017 Member Of The Year Don Rassette Rassette Homes

Past Presidents committed to Serve Edmundo Dena Edgar Montiel Frank Torres Frank Arroyos Greg Bowling Randy Bowling Bobby Bowling IV Doug Schwartz John Cullers Robert Baeza Mark Dyer Kelly Sorenson Rudy Guel Brad Roe Herschel Stringfield Bob Bowling III Pat Woods Carlos Villalobos

EPAB Mission Statement: The El Paso Association of Builders is a federated professional organization representing the home building industry, committed to enhancing the quality of life in our community by providing affordable homes of excellence and value.

The El Paso Association of Builders is a 501C(6) trade organization. Š 2018 Builder’s Outlook is published and distributed for the El Paso Association of Builders

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