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NISHANT ARYA Executive Director, JBM Group
QUICK BYTES Karthick Athmanathan Head, EV & EMobility Business, Ashok Leyland
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Will the staged procurement strategy help the fleet operators in attaining efficient business operations?
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EMOBILITY + | JAN FEB ISSUE 2020
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PG 37
CONT IN CONVERSATION
08
NISHANT ARYA Executive Director, JBM Group
PERSPECTIVE
10
Do the EV Rental services have the potential to offer an energy efficient and cost effective, sustainable transportation?
14 Will the staged procurement strategy help the fleet operators in attaining efficient business operations?
NEWS India News..............06 Global News............08
TENT QUICK BYTES
13 KARTHICK ATHMANATHAN Head, EV & EMobility Business, Ashok Leyland
INSIGHTS
16 THE WHEELS OF CHANGE – Electrifying Transport
18 E-MOBILITY IN INDIA Set to Gain Momentum Post-COVID-19
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I N D I A
BUZZ >
N E W S
INSIGHTS >
TATA AUTOCOMP TIES UP WITH TELLUS POWER GREEN TO SET UP EV CHARGING STATIONS
TATA POWER GETS READY TO ENABLE INDIA’S SHIFT TO CLEAN MOBILITY WITH ‘EZ CHARGE’
Tata AutoComp Systems, India’s leading auto-component conglomerate has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with USA based DC charging infrastructure company Tellus Power Green to supply AC and DC Fast Chargers for entire range of electric vehicles – Two Wheelers, Three Wheelers, Passenger Vehicles and Commercial Vehicles in India.Tata AutoComp and Tellus will now provide various sizes of AC chargers from 3 kW to 11kW for home and residential complexes as well as DC Fast Chargers from 20kW to 300kW to meet the needs to charge various types of vehicles in public places such as office and commercial parking lots, convenience public charging stations within cities
Tata Power, India’s largest integrated utility and a pioneer in the clean energy sector in the country expects to make its mark in the fast-emerging electric vehicle (EV) segment by creating a national network of charging infrastructure.As part of its plans to help the EV migration in India, Tata Power will be investing substantially to expand its network of smart EV charging points from around 170 now to over 700 by end of the current financial year under the Brand name of Tata Power EZ Charge.Tata Power EZ charge network has already installed 170 fast and smart-charging points in various usage environments in more than 20 cities across the country.
LATEST >
TATA POWER JOINS HANDS WITH MG MOTOR INDIA TO DEPLOY SUPERFAST CHARGERS AT SELECT MG DEALERSHIPS Initiating the next phase of EV revolution in India, Tata Power, India’s largest integrated power utility, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with MG Motor. As part of the association, Tata Power will deploy 50KW DC Superfast chargers at select MG dealership locations and offer end-to-end EV charging solutions to MG dealerships spread across India.Through this association, MG Motor aims to lay a specific focus on the key target cities they will be foraying into as a part of their future EV expansion plans. These superfast 50KW DC chargers will be accessible by both MG ZS EV customers as well as other EV owners whose automobiles are compatible with the CCS/CHAdeMO charging.
INDUSTRY >
BOUNCE TO EASE COMMUTE WITHIN CITIES DURING THE LOCKDOWN 4.0. Bounce, India’s largest shared mobility player has resumed its operations in Bengaluru and Hyderabad. In addition to its unique dockless scooter sharing model, Bounce has introduced a flexible longterm rental plan and a subscription based model, Bounce – A (AtmaNirbhar) to ease commute within cities during the lockdown 4.0. Available in 7, 14, 30 & 60-day packs, the long-term rental plan gives people the convenience of owning a scooter without bearing the brunt of cost involved in buying a personal vehicle. Under the Bounce – A (AtmaNirbhar) initiative, users can avail scooters for 12 or 24 months without any down payment. After the subscription expires, users can schedule a return or purchase the vehicle at a nominal cost.Bounce has currently deployed over 1500 vehicles in Bangalore and Hyderabad and will be introducing more scooters batch wise. | MAY - JUNE ISSUE 2020
INDUSTRY >
FARADION PARTNERS WITH IPLTECH TO DEVELOP SODIUM-ION BATTERIES FOR COMMERCIAL VEHICLES IN INDIA Faradion Ltd., the British company that is a world leader in sodium-ion battery technology, has announced a new partnership with Infraprime Logistics Technologies (IPLTech) for its high energy sodium-ion batteries for use in commercial vehicles in the Indian market.India has demonstrated a growing appetite for moving towards electric commercial vehicles, driven by the Government’s target of 30% electric vehicle adoption by 2030. It has given a significant push to infrastructure by allocating $1.4 trillion for infrastructure to be invested by 2025. This is higher than the UK ($35 billion) and the US ($500 billion) in the same period. Each day, 40km of highways are constructed in India and the market for roads and highways is projected to grow at an annual rate of 36% from now to 2025.Faradion’s sodium-ion technology provides similar performance to conventional chemistries, while replacing expensive materials such as cobalt and lithium with the far more abundant sodium. Unlike lithium-ion batteries, Faradion’s sodium-ion batteries have exceptional thermal stability and safety. Further they can be safely transported and maintained at zero volts. PG 6
G L O B A L
BUZZ >
N E W S
INSIGHTS >
ALL-ELECTRIC CESSNA 208B GRAND CARAVAN MARKS A MILESTONE IN NEW ERA OF ELECTRIC AVIATION
RECYCLING MORE HEAT: HYUNDAI AND KIA TURN UP EV EFFICIENCY WITH NEW HEAT PUMP TECHNOLOGY
magniX, the company powering the electric aviation revolution, and AeroTEC, a leading independent company focused on aerospace testing, engineering and certification, announced the successful flight of an all-electric Cessna Grand Caravan 208B. The successful flight of the eCaravan, magnified by a 750-horsepower (560 kW) magni500 propulsion system, took place at the AeroTEC Flight Test Center at the Grant County International Airport (KMWH) in Moses Lake, Washington this morning. As the world’s largest all-electric commercial aircraft, this is a significant milestone in disrupting the transportation industry and accelerating the electric aviation revolution.
Hyundai Motor Company and Kia Motors Corporation have revealed new details of their innovative heat pump system, deployed in Hyundai and Kia’s global electric vehicle (EV) line-up to maximize their all-electric driving range in low temperatures.
LATEST >
END-OF-LIFE EV BATTERIES EXPECTED TO REACH 7.8 MILLION TONNES PER YEAR BY 2040 With the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), the demand for Li-ion batteries will grow significantly in the coming decades. In the meanwhile, as EV batteries begin to reach their end-of-life, we will see an exponential growth of retired Li-ion batteries coming out of vehicles. By 2020 we will already have around 14 GWh, or 102,000 tonnes of Li-ion batteries retiring from EVs per year. With the rapid adoption of EVs, the total amount of EV batteries reaching end-of-life is expected to reach 7.8 million tonnes per year by 2040 states the latest IDTechEx report.Whether retired EV batteries have a second-life or not, all of those batteries will need to be recycled in the end anyway. Recycling provides a crucial solution to raw material supply insecurity and price fluctuations. Through recovering critical raw materials from Li-ion batteries, manufacturers can shield themselves from supply disruptions and also generate additional revenue streams. By 2040 the global Li-ion battery recycling market will be worth $31 billion annually,says the latest IDTechEx report. INDUSTRY >
VOLKSWAGEN ROLLS OUT ID. CHARGER Volkswagen has started sale of the ID. Charger for quick and easy home charging for electric vehicles. The wallbox can be ordered online or from Volkswagen dealers in eight European countries2. The first boxes were delivered to customers recently. At an introductory price of €399, the ID. Charger offers an excellent price-performance ratio. It was developed with the ID.3 and the ID. family in mind, but can also be used to charge all other electric cars with a Type 2 connector. The new Volkswagen wallbox is part of a complete ID.3 package designed by Volkswagen to make the switch to an electric car as simple and convenient as possible.
| MAY - JUNE ISSUE 2020
Hyundai and Kia’s heat pump is a leading heat management innovation that maximizes the distance that Hyundai and Kia EVs can travel on a single charge, scavenging waste heat to warm the cabin. It enables EV drivers to heat their car’s cabin in cold weather without significantly impacting electric driving range, unlike other EVs.
INDUSTRY >
IDEANOMICS MEG FINALIZING MULTIPLE EV TAXI ORDERS Ideanomics announced that its subsidiary, Mobile Energy Global (MEG) had selected several manufacturers to fulfill its EV taxi sales orders including BYD, Dong Feng Nissan, Chery, Kia, Geely, and Tesla.Orders include 300 taxis for Changxing county, Huzhou; 800 for Neijiang, Sichuan made up of 300 new taxis, and 500 replacement taxis, Qingdao, Shangdong will add 3,000 EV taxis; Wenzhou, Zhejiang is adding 1,500 EV taxis; Yancheng, Jiangsu has ordered 1,250 EV taxis made up of 300 new taxis and the replacement of 950 taxis; Chengdu, Sichuan is replacing 3,000 conventional taxis with EVs. A total of 11,254 units are currently in order fulfillment.
YUTONG GROUP TO USE SILICON CARBIDE IN POWERTRAIN SYSTEMS FOR IT’S ELECTRIC BUSES StarPower Semiconductor and Cree, Inc., announced that Zhengzhou Yutong Group Co., Ltd. (Yutong Group) is using Cree 1200V silicon carbide devices in a StarPower power module for its new, industryleading, high-efficiency powertrain system for electric buses. The use of silicon carbide-based power solutions enables faster, smaller, lighter and more powerful electronic systems for commercial electric vehicles. PG 7
INCONVERSATION
NISHANT ARYA EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, JBM GROUP
What were JBM's 2020 plans before the lockdown was announced? Further to our focus on the electric vehicle segment, we have been working towards developing in-house synergies with respect to the charging solutions & technologies. For this, JBM Auto had announced an investment to the magnitude of Rs 500 crore over three years that started last year. As on date, Rs 200 cr has already been invested in this business, the result of which has been our new product, the e9 ECOLIFE electric bus, and the EV charging business that took off last year.
As JBM has resumed its operations, do you think there would be greater challenges in importing materials and overcoming the production hurdles? As production resumes, there are bound to be some delays as realignment of processes and supply chains will take some time both at the OEMs as well as the suppliers’ end. It will be a gradual process due to underlying issues such as availability of manpower, raw materials, transport, etc. Moreover, the manufacturing plants will be running at less than half the capacity, may be, on a single shift basis per day to comply with the govt. guidelines of 33% staff in the premises.
| MAY - JUNE ISSUE 2020
"AT JBM, WE ARE MOVING VERY SWIFTLY TOWARDS INCORPORATING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING ACROSS OUR MANUFACTURING FACILITIES" What is your 2nd quarter prediction for JBM? The performance of the auto sector in FY20 compared to FY19 has not been very promising in itself due to the slowdown with CV going down by30%, passenger vehicles segment down by 18%, 3W down by 18% and 2W by 10% approximately. Now with the lockdown getting extended further, the pain points of the industry that has been reeling through bad times for more than an one and a half year now, need to addressed by the govt. with much more solidarity. The volume of total sales in FY20 has been around 21 mln vehicles and FY 21 could witness going down further by 20-25% as a sector due to COVID wherein the maximum impact will be coming in H1FY21, whereas H2 will see some recovery happening. With this setback of sales by 20-25% the auto sector demand will go back by at least by 8-9 years in this FY21.
"Necessity is the mother of all inventions". How well can this quote be defined for the Indian automotive industry? It has become imperative for organizations to be agile at such challenging times to sustain and sail through the current situation. At JBM, we are moving very swiftly towards incorporating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning across our manufacturing facilities that will not only aid in a smoother resumption of operations post the lockdown, but also sustain a safe and healthy working environment for our employees. We are in regular touch with all our stakeholders to ensure seamless communication. The aim is to maximize and capitalize on JBM Group’s inherent strengths and capabilities to minimize the impact of COVID on business, customers, suppliers, and our employees. PG 8
5. Has this lockdown opened doors to encourage 'Make in India" projects? Do you see any silver lining there? The lockdown will have a long term positive impact considering the bilateral ties between India and Japan, Korea, and the USA. Japan has already announced a $2billion investment package for companies to move out of China. The Make in India programme is sure to gain increased momentum with the inflow of foreign companies, thereby, strengthening the manufacturing capabilities inhouse and India well-positioned in becoming the contract manufacturer for the world. The government can come up with new tax brackets to promote new companies to invest in India in sectors such as automobiles, textiles, high-tech manufacturing, EVs, etc. The Electric Vehicle segment is another opportunity area for India. Having gone through the lockdown phase, people are now more focused on their health, safety, and environmental sustainability.
| MAY - JUNE ISSUE 2020
The volume of total sales in FY20 has been around 21 mln vehicles and FY 21 could witness going down further by 20-25% as a sector due to COVID wherein the maximum impact will be coming in H1FY21, whereas H2 will see some recovery happening. With this setback of sales by 20-25% the auto sector demand will go back by at least by 8-9 years in this FY21."
PG 9
DO THE EV RENTAL SERVICES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO OFFER AN ENERGY EFFICIENT AND COST EFFECTIVE, SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION?
PERSPECTIVE
ABHISHEK DABAS COO, EV, AMPLUS SOLAR
EVs, being a new-age technology, come with a much better technology integration. This is a must as the fleet operations need to be optimally run to compete with ICE vehicles. A lot of operational efficiencies can be derived from being able to monitor & control driver’s behaviour, from using battery status to plan routes, and from preventive diagnostics to avoid breakdowns. Almost all new EVs coming have these capabilities in-built.
| MAY - JUNE ISSUE 2020
PG 10
VARUN SHAHAN ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, BOUNCE
IRFAN KHAN FOUNDER & CEO eBikeGo
Electric mobility market of India is different from other countries as they have mature market conditions and high tendency of penetration of electric vehicles. Geographical area, social and economic policy, public norms add up to such vast differences between India and other countries. Dense populations, lack of public infrastructure, low affordability serve as some of barriers for the adoption of e-vehicles. This is where our company eBikeGo aims to solve. eBikeGo is a revolutionary green venture which aims at providing an environmentally friendly mode of mobility. Our company provides smart mobility solutions to many businesses across the country. The company has now catered to the B2B and B2C market in India and each day we are striving to get more clients onboard with us to join hands . This practice is the need of the hour to ensure sustainability and a greener environment globally Changing to electric vehicles is now, not a choice but a compulsion. This will ensure traffic checks on the roads, systematic way of mobility, will keep the environment pollution free and healthy. In the coming times, electric vehicles will be able to stand on their own feet,provided the four pieces of puzzle coming together at some point. These factors are improved vehicle mileage range, charging infrastructure, low cost of ownership and price of battery which will be economical to customers pocket.
Dense populations, lack of public infrastructure, low affordability serve as some of barriers for the adoption of e-vehicles. This is where our company eBikeGo aims to solve." | MAY - JUNE ISSUE 2020
Globally, transport is the highest contributor to air pollution, contributing as much as 24 % of total CO2 emissions. Out of this, road transport saw a 68 % increase in CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2015. Among the wide range of air pollutants generated by vehicular traffic, small and fine particulates appear to have quantifiable impacts on health. Urban transport contributes to 40% of total particulate matter emissions in Bangalore, 20.8% in Hyderabad, and 19% in Mumbai. There are 7 Indian cities in the list of top ten polluted cities across the globe. People have traditionally used a mix of different modes of transport to serve their mobility needs. Transport so far has been powered by the Internal Combustion Engine ( ICE ). As technologies improve and the ecosystem evolves, Electric Vehicles potentially form the backbone of a new age transport that is poised to displace ICE vehicles and pave the way for a cleaner, efficient and sustainable mode of transport. Despite encouragement from the Government of India (GoI) and Niti Aayog, the technology and usage of EVs is still pretty nascent and considered to be capital intensive. There are other challenges as well, like the lack of a well established charging infrastructure and consumer reservations over new technology. Shared ownership through rental models provides an innovative solution in overcoming these barriers, whilst challenging the traditional models of ownership. This approach has seen success in the past few years. Clearly, there is a need for innovation in business models as well as technology, and Bounce has strived to do just that. Bounce offers both long term as well as short term rentals. Using an IoT based dockless model, any user can rent a two-wheeler using just his mobile phone. In this model, public transportation systems are made more accessible by addressing the first and last-mile connectivity issues. This creates an affordable and congestion-free ecosystem for daily commute in an ever-expanding urban scenario. At Bounce, we have also placed big bets not only on the emerging mobility modes but also on electric vehicles. With over a thousand electric vehicles in the fleet, over the past few months, our users have driven more than a million km on EVs powered by our charging network. Speaking of charging infrastructure, this has traditionally been envisioned only as direct battery charging where a vehicle is connected to a charging station, much like our mobile phones. Bounce, however, decided to approach this differently by deploying swappable batteries in its fleet. Battery Swapping presents a strong alternative that can significantly reduce downtime, improve battery life, lead to smaller installed batteries, and potentially lower upfront capital costs by separating out the battery cost from the total vehicle cost. In a transport ecosystem dominated by two-wheelers and three-wheelers, the swapping model is a serious contender to pave the way forward for developing public charging infrastructure in the country. A geographically optimized network can ensure high utilization of swapping stations resulting in attractive IRRs for the Energy Operators. Correctly deployed, a swapping station network can ensure that EVs are cheaper to buy as well as to run for the end customer which can lead to significant uptakes and mass adoption. Another offshoot of the swapping model is the higher utilization rate of the battery inventory. This leads to faster aging which allows for newer technologies to access the market faster. Having a swapping infrastructure facilitates the integration of solar charging as well as Battery to Grid (B2G) technologies thus ensuring “Fully Green� mobility. The nimbleness of EVs will make them more amenable to changes in financial and human capital investments that are likely to occur in the post-COVID world. We are optimistic that the all-time low pollution levels as a consequence of the nationwide lockdown could change consumer behavior as well as propel policymakers to further encourage EVs. Thus, now more than ever there is more need for the state and central governments to promote and encourage the adoption of EV rentals solution to accelerate the mobility revolution in India. PG 11
AKASH GUPTA CO-FOUNDER & CEO ZYPP ELECTRIC MOBILITY
It has been predicted that only in Delhi the demand for electric vehicles would be 69.6 terawatt-hours by 2030. This is expected to generate a revenue of INR700 billion. Furthermore, on 1st Feb 2019 Piyush Goyal (Minister of Railways) shared that by 2030 there will only be electric vehicles running on the streets of India. In fact, at present, there are various metro stations in Delhi-NCR that are equipped with electronic bikes as our daily computing partner for travellers. Brands like Zypp facilitate that. Such brands are playing the most crucial role for professionals in their travel. In fact, startups have added value in a professional’s daily commute. Although electric vehicles have been fascinating, it has even been as good as any fuelled vehicle. In fact, if you compare cars like MG hector with Ford’s Eco-Sport, you would know that the functional benefits of such vehicles are the same as any other vehicle. Thus here are some benefits why should you be renting electric vehicles as a commuting companion for their work or colleges. Rental EVs are faster than other vehicles: Not a lot of people know this, however, electric vehicles are faster than the usual vehicles. Especially the electric bikes because they give their riders the leverage to increase the speed up by just peddling once or twice. These peddle increases the speed of the bike by 20 to 26 miles an hour. Thus, for someone whose office is 18 km from their house can reach their offices in 30 to 40 minutes of time regardless of getting stuck in traffic. EVs Conserves Money: Rental EVs are good companions for farther places too. Say for example, you are supposed to travel 12 km every day for work. With one single charge on your electric bike, you can travel somewhere around 55 to 65 km. This is a lot better than getting your regular bikes fuelled up for INR100 or INR200 every week. In fact, researchers have shared that people spend a few paisa for every kilometre that they ride on an electric vehicle. That makes it extremely cost-effective. Custom use: Professionals who have recently finished their graduation/ studies would have a lot to save if they were to travel otherwise in a cab or other commuting options. Because of custom plans available right from hourly to weekly, monthly options, which is a lot easier than other commute options. This further helps you in reaching on time and getting into the habit of convenience. In fact, with COVID-19 in the picture commuting to work will be a serious issue and rental e-scooters by www.zypp.app will be a huge help for commuters. Especially for bachelors who are away from families during this transition. These were a few points that I feel would help you get a stronger mind towards electric vehicles.
| MAY - JUNE ISSUE 2020
PG 12
QUICKBYTES
Karthick Athmanathan Head, EV & EMobility Business, Ashok Leyland
Recent BS-VI regulations have increased costs of ICE vehicles, making EVs a bit more attractive. How much do you agree to this statement? Yes – for private passenger vehicles for which Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is not the primary decision criterion. But let us remember that the TCO gaps as well as Vehicle price gaps are still so high – in spite of FAME2 incentives – that, except probably for commercial 3 wheelers, all other segments still find it hard to justify EV’s based on direct TCO costs.
As Ashok Leyland has resumed its operations now, do you think there would be greater challenges in importing materials and overcoming the production hurdles? Since the demand is muted right now, we are not facing issues. We are hopeful that supply chain and logistics will stabilize by the time demand picks up.
Since the Govt. now is encouraging industries on local manufacturing, are there any initial steps taken towards it by Ashok Leyland? We had always preferred local supplies, and encouraged all our suppliers to localize – it was beneficial to both of us if the volumes were right. In Electric Vehicles, we are working with other OEMs to pool demand so the volumes are attractive to the suppliers to localize.
The EV-2030 is a distant reality now for india, what do you think should be the new goal? There has not been a very formal policy or target cascaded for 2030- it is still on the table for debate. 2030 is still a few years away. We think it’s too early to think about resetting the goal, which is anyway yet to be formalized
What are your company's future EV plans? Continue with our development plans, while conserving cash in the near term.
| MAY - JUNE ISSUE 2020
PG 13
PERSPECTIVE
WILL THE STAGED PROCUREMENT STRATEGY HELP THE FLEET OPERATORS IN ATTAINING EFFICIENT BUSINESS OPERATIONS?
ABHISHEK DABAS
ANIRUDH ARUN
COO, EV, AMPLUS SOLAR
CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER, BLU SMART MOBILITY
Tail pipe emissions are becoming a big concern in cities like Delhi and the regulatory authorities are pushing for EV adoption. This is not being done just via incentives like subsidies and registration fee waivers for EVs, but also by discouraging ICE vehicles. The fact that Delhi had stopped issuing new “No Entry Passes” to ICE vehicles, limiting their usable hours, is an instance that proves this. While Covid19 might push the timelines of full implementation of the same by a few months, it is imperative that fleet operators gear up for EVs if they want to keep running their operations in these areas. If they do not proceed with a staged approach to adopt EVs, they might suddenly find themselves having their entire fleets unusable in certain geographies.
The fact that Delhi had stopped issuing new “No Entry Passes” to ICE vehicles, limiting their usable hours, is an instance that proves this." | MAY - JUNE ISSUE 2020
As environmental regulations become more stringent, mobility companies and fleet operators have been gearing up for change. The new BS-6 norms can cause the cost of the fleet vehicle to rise by 7-10% according to some sources.
Small- and medium- sized fleet operators and individual-owners may, therefore, adopt a deferred procurement strategy for these types of vehicles." Moreover, the fi tment of CNG conversi on ki ts compli ant to these new standards may turn out to be more di ffi cult and expensi ve. Small- and medi um- si zed fleet operators and i ndi vi dual-owners may, therefore, adopt a deferred procurement strategy for these types of vehi cles. Si multaneously, these more stri ngent envi ronmental norms reduce the i ni ti al pri ce di fferenti al between Electri c Vehi cles and Conventi onal-fuel vehi cles, and wi ll i n effect accelerate the adopti on of EVs i n fleets. PG 14
The stringent regulations are going to make the EVs mandatory in certain applications and thus the demand will be created and so the numbers also will increase." So it can be clearly established that if only we change our ways of living, working and commuting – we do a great favour to the Mother Nature and to ourselves. This also gave a great leverage to the government and the Environmental activists to insist on stringent regulatory norms to make the covid pollution levels a new normal. For all fleet operators and other stake holders, this only comes as a blessing in disguise. Yes I mean it. Lets see why?
RAJEEV YSR COO AVAAN INDIA
Of many things that Covid taught us, one important thing that it definitely taught us is that we are the culprits in hurting the Mother Nature and eventually ourselves. Yes!! Within few days of the entire world coming to a standstill, the effects and the metrics are clearly seen changing and we could witness the Mother Nature healing herself. Skies have become clearer, forests greener, Roads less noisier, breeze soother and smoother, our smiles have become brighter to see the wild animals returning to their original abode Below is the Air quality Index that I have captured during the thick of lockdown comparing it with that of 2019 average. Among the world’s top 10 polluted cities, India was in 7th place as per the 2019 average but as on 9th April 2020, Our country is nowhere to be seen among the top 10 list.
| MAY - JUNE ISSUE 2020
One of the main reasons of EVs are not penetrating into the market is the price disparity between their counter parts. The key reason for such huge difference is lack of demand and thus volumes. The stringent regulations are going to make the EVs mandatory in certain applications and thus the demand will be created and so the numbers also will increase. And once the numbers increase, the costs are bound to come down and once the parity between EVs and their counter parts is achieved, no wonder why EVs won’t flourish. Thus the environmental regulations over the time, will help propel the success of EVs among all stake holders be it people carriers or goods carriers thus all the fleet operators. AvaanIndia is a new age company creating a disruption in the logistic industry with innovation and viable models. An active crusador of green energy, Avaan excels in cost effective solutions for environmental friendly integrated distribution solutions. The unique value proposition of this company is that it’s the only company that runs LCV EV over all India. It currently runs its vehicles with Bigbakset, IKEA and going forward deploys these vehicles at other major Ecom players also.
PG 15
INSIGHTS
The disruptions which the entrance of electric vehicles has been doing to the sector is very similar to what Renewables did to the Power sector. ICE players should not do the mistake that conventional power players did in the power sector, of not gauging the effects of the new entrant properly. Many leading players have already responded to change with announcements of EVs in their portfolio.
The Wheels of Change – Electrifying Transport While we all sit back at home to work amidst lockdowns at various levels across the Globe to remain safe and fight the pandemic in form of COVID19 a few positives can be observed. I am sure you have read many such articles and blogs in the recent past, so let me not meander around and come to the main reason, why I brought mention of this. The reason is, the environment around; suddenly the air has become clean, our surroundings less dusty and CO2 emission dropping. Yes, we may get happy reading this, but we should also recognize the fact that this is temporary. As they say, “This too shall pass”, once the lockdown starts getting relaxed as it is at present, it will not take much time for the environment again to return to levels as it was in the pre COVID era. So, what do we do? Is it time to revisit our priorities and foster change, which we have been talking about? The answer is a Big YES. While in my B School, we had a subject called Strategic Innovation. One thing which particularly influenced me in the subject was the “S-Curve”. Which defines that every product/ service goes through four stages: inception, growth, maturity and decline. Here, let me apply the curve to the automobile sector. The ICEs have ruled the market for quite long and is still ruling, but ICE as a technology is reaching its maturity, while EVs is quite new in this cycle and is in its early growth stages.
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EVs too need to be careful, as there are many players around in the race, each with an equally potential to cause disruption. While today we are focusing on Lithium Ion technologies, hydrogen fuel cells are already ready to make commercial entry into the market. China has already shared the vision to have 30% of vehicles as FCV by 2030! So, for all these new technologies which have entered the automotive sector, one thing is constant and that is to Innovate for remaining pertinent in this ever-changing sector. Let’ s have a small peek into what is happening in the EV sector worldwide. Today there are more than 7 million passenger EVs on road worldwide (i.e. around 3% of total vehicles globally), with around 2.1 million of them getting added in 2019. The share of commercial EVs in this is slowly increasing with many e-commerce players shifting to EVs for deliveries across the globe. The percentage of electric buses in the same is also showing much promise (> 500,000 today). China has been the undisputed leader in the EV frame, from manufacturing to sales. China is followed by Europe and South Korea, with US a very close 4th. Due to greater adoption and Government support in forms of incentives, subsidies and phasing out policies of ICEs (13 countries and many municipalities has already announced), we see price parity coming faster in Europe, US and China. Europe’ s CO2 regulations and China’ s EV Credit System makes both the countries together make up for more than 50% of the EV market. At present, there is a mix of BEV (Battery EV) and Plug in Hybrids (PHEV), in longer time, the share of PHEV will slowly decrease giving way for a BEV dominated front. There are other new entrants too, like fuel cell vehicles, but projections show that FCVs can make a mark in the global vehicle share post 2030. By 2040, FCVs can form around 1% of total vehicles on road. The world can have around 30% of its vehicles as electric (in various forms) by 2030. This also means that there will be a considerable rise that this EVs in road will yield in electricity demand.
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Increase in EVS will also require increase in Battery production capacity. Today the global capacity is around 340 GWh/year. This will need considerable increase to cater to the future demand. Going by projections an annual capacity of more than 2000 GWh/year is expected by 2030. The increase in demand also comes from the account of the fall in battery prices, which today stands at 156 $/kWh and can fall to sub 100 $/kWh level by 2030. There are huge improvements happening in the battery industry in terms of energy density, better chemistries, battery manufacturing capacity and lower scrappage rates. What also comes into the picture simultaneously is the need to charge these batteries. Thus, development of charging infrastructure is equally important to make this growth sustainable. The world today has around 930,000 chargers installed. China again leads here with more than 50% of the global charging stations installed just in China. The most preferred mode of charging is home charging/ workplace charging but apart from that around 12 million public charging points will be required by 2040 to cater to the growth trend of EVs. At present the 150kW charger sees more market share but varieties like 11kW and 50kW chargers are also having a prominent pie in the share. In terms of sales, Tesla Model 3 has been the leader, with around 45% sales just happening in US. The two and three-wheeler market has also seen considerable growth in the EV segment, the maximum share in this market comes from China and India, Vietnam too is a large market. This market till now has been dominated by Lead Acid batteries, but Lithium Ion is slowly penetrating with reducing cost premiums. The question now arises will the COVID scenario halt this growth? In short term the answer is definitely Yes, but in the long run, the effect will not be that prominent and the growth will again find pace after a small hiccup on its way. Now, lets come to the India story, a lot has been happening across the Globe, but is India well prepared to take charge of this change? The answer will be difficult to gauge in terms of a simple No or a Yes. India has been gearing up to the change is many ways, starting from the $1.4 Billion support in forms of FAME-2 and increased activities in the tendering and procurement front. India saw around 3.6 lacs units of EV sale in 2018-19. This number is not great but yes, the market has been showing promise, specially the 2 and 3-wheeler and bus sector, which forms more than 90% of the total sales (It is predicted that electric 2 wheeler sales in India will grow at a CAGR of 87% to reach 3.4 million units by 2025). We need to keep in mind that amidst an environment where the automaker sector is going through a slowdown since Q4 of 2018. There was around 15% decline in sales in 2019 alone. The first quarter of 2020 was equally bad, aggravated further with the lockdown. The good part is, many automakers have started rolling out EVs in the Indian market including Hyundai, MG Motors and TATA Motors, with Mahindra & Mahindra and KIA motors also following suit. As per the analysis done by CES, the electric vehicle market in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36% between 2018-26 in case of Business as Usual (BAU) scenario whereas in case of National EV (NEV) scenario, it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 44%. In Business as Usual (BAU) scenario,
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it is predicted that the market will grow at a similar pace as it is growing today. The market is expected to increase rapidly after 2023-24 as electric vehicles are expected to reach cost parity with the ICE vehicles. In the National EV (NEV) scenario, it is predicted that the market will grow rapidly with support from the government to achieve the targets defined under FAMEII scheme and NEMPP2020. Policies such as banning the sales of ICE 2W & 3W in highly polluted cities, scrapping of old vehicles, stringent emission norms etc., will further drive the sales. State governments will also facilitate in accelerating the deployment of EVs to achieve the targets defined under their EV policies. The battery market for EV’ s in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% over a period of 2018-2026 in case of BAU scenario whereas in case of NEV scenario, it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 32%. A concern here is about the number of charging stations available in the country to charge the EVs. At present the number is around 1500 and needs much improvement. State level EV policies, amendment of building laws to include EV ready charging spaces, recommendation for charging tariffs are some areas which have increased the number of tenders being released for installing charging stations across the country. EESL has been playing a major role here. What India needs to build up this growth is a supporting supply chain eco-system, skilled manpower, pro-active government support and subsidies and local manufacturing of batteries.
Europe’s CO2 regulations and China’s EV Credit System makes both the countries together make up for more than 50% of the EV market. At present, there is a mix of BEV (Battery EV) and Plug in Hybrids (PHEV), in longer time, the share of PHEV will slowly decrease giving way for a BEV dominated front. There are other new entrants too, like fuel cell vehicles, but projections show that FCVs can make a mark in the global vehicle share post 2030. By 2040, FCVs can form around 1% of total vehicles on road." Author: Debmalya Sen (Senior Consultant – Emerging Technologies, Customized Energy Solutions)
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INSIGHTS
E-MOBILITY IN INDIA SET TO GAIN MOMENTUM POST-COVID-19
Based on the market potential, vehicle utilization, OEM investment, and ease of charging, 2W, and 3W are set to be the key target segments for electrification in India."
Even before the pandemic, the auto industry in India was struggling due to weak consumer sentiments, the transition to BS VI technology, and the credit crunch in the non-banking finance companies and MSME sectors, which impacted sales in rural India. COVID-19 has had an impact on customer sentiments and business operations as well as discretionary spending on automobiles by organizations. E-mobility in India With the shift in focus of major OEMs, industry bodies, and consumers toward alternative drivetrain instead of traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the automotive industry is experiencing a major disruption in the existing powertrain technology, making way for a more viable contender – e- mobility. The Indian government has developed various initiatives to promote the use of electric vehicles (EVs). The launch of the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020 has set the roadmap for e- mobility in India. With the roll-out of FAME II (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles) in April 2019, e-mobility is gaining momentum. So far, 13 OEMs have registered their 39 EV models {two-wheeler (2W)=14, three-wheeler (3W)=11 and four-wheeler (4W)=14} to avail the benefits of demand incentives under Phase II of the FAME scheme. The government' s push toward cleaner fuels, the growing need for clean and shared transportation, stringent emission norms with a higher cost of compliance (IC engines), and newer business models lowering the operational cost of EVs are some of the drivers of growth for e-mobility in India. Based on the market potential, vehicle utilization, OEM investment, and ease of charging, 2W, and 3W are set to be the key target segments for electrification in India. Exhibit 1: Electric Vehicles Market Forecast and Sales Volume Growth, India, 2019 vs. 2027
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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E-mobility in Two- and Three-wheelers The Indian EV market will continue to be largely driven by the 2W and 3W segments. In a vast market like India, where 90% of people commute by 2W, 3W, or buses, the e-mobility outlook for these sectors remains strong. The Government of India and Niti Aayog consider 2W as one of the key segments for electrification, setting a target of 25% electrification by 2023. The adoption of electric 3Ws and erickshaws has gained momentum in India compared to other modes of transport because of their economic viability and affordability. Technological innovations such as battery swapping can further help electrify the 2W and 3W fleets in the country. As per Frost & Sullivan' s EV market forecast, e-rickshaws, e-autos, and e-two-wheelers are the most promising segments for electrification in India and are expected to account for over 4 million units by 2025. E-mobility in Passenger Vehicles and Buses Lack of long range and high cost of acquisition are the major deterrents in the adoption of e-mobility in the passenger cars and bus segments. High initial cost, lack of meticulous charging infrastructure capable of charging multiple EVs at the same time, and limited public awareness regarding e-mobility benefits may result in a lower adoption rate of e-mobility. The decline in battery pack costs and the resultant drop in initial acquisition costs are expected to enable the electrification of the fleet. The major driver for electrification in India will be the conversion of the last-mile connectivity fleet from ICs to EVs. Passenger cars for commercial use by car-sharing firms such as Ola and Uber in the country are expected to undergo a 40% conversion to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030. E-mobility in the Auto Component Industry Frost & Sullivan estimates a huge potential for e-mobility in the auto component industry. The power electronics segment associated with the EV value chain in India is expected to reach $4.8 billion in 2025. At present, there is a huge gap in power electronics domestically, compared to the global scenario.
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With the lower cost of manufacturing, India can build not only power electronics but also the overall system like EV motors and batteries. The power electronics market in India will be driven by the 2W segment, contributing a 61% share by 2021. Currently, Korean, Japanese, and Chinese companies lead the way in cell manufacturing, batteries, and electric motors. By 2025, about onethird of the EV motor market will emerge from the demand for EV buses in India. Battery, power electronic, thermal, and battery management systems will offer significant opportunities for auto component makers to localize and establish a comprehensive supplier ecosystem in India by 2025. The Way Forward Post-COVID-19 To keep up the hopes of EV OEMs and tier 1 and 2 suppliers, the Indian EV market requires an enormous change to the ecosystem. Recently, the Government of India announced “Aatmnirbhar Bharat” (Self- Reliant India) to overcome the ongoing economic slowdown. The “Aatmnirbhar Bharat” initiative will be a key enabler in providing global reach for its “Vocal for Local” program. Currently, India relies primarily on imports from countries like China, Japan, and South Korea for battery management systems, drivetrains, and power electronic parts. Indian EV manufacturers and auto component suppliers can utilize this opportunity to build cost-effective power electronic components and parts, thereby localizing the supplier ecosystem in India. The EV OEMs in India must step forward. Strategies like restructuring the EV infrastructure and supplier network, localizing manufacturing, exploring virtual sales and online aftersales service support, and improving the cost of ownership and customer offers will support the growth of India' s EV automotive value chain.
Author : Ankush Katailiha, Consultant, Mobility Practice, Frost & Sullivan
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