Webinar on Emerging Disruptive Technologies in the ME and Africa

Webinar on Emerging Disruptive Technologies in the Middle East and Africa.

OPEN Publications

Volume 4 l Number 3 l Fall 2020

NATO ALLIED COMMAND TRANSFORMATION

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OPEN Publications OPEN / NSD-S Hub Webinar on Emerging Disruptive Technologies in the Middle East and Africa.

How Emerging and Disruptive Technologies are shaping the security agenda in the South OPEN Editorial Team OPEN Contributing Author

Doctor David Kilcullen 1

OPEN Capability Leader

Col Geert Marien

Managing Editor

Mr Oke Thorngren

Action Officer

Ltc José Roberto Sánchez Hernández

OPEN Operations Manager

Maj Faruk Akkaya

OPEN Editorial Review Board

Ltc Georgios Kotas Ltc Alvaro Garcia Ltc Theodoros Koilakos Ltc Jacob Hansen Ltc John Gray Ltc Stig Frankrig

Dr. David Kilcullen is President and CEO of Cordillera Applications Group, a research and operations firm providing risk analysis, monitoring and specialized field teams to de-risk client’s projects.

He is one of the world's leading theorists and practitioners of guerrilla warfare and counterterrorism with extensive experience In urban operations over a 25-year career with the Australian end U.S. government as an Army officer, Intelligence officer and diplomat. He served In Iraq In 2006-7 designing urban counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations for Multi-National Force Iraq, and also served In Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya and Colombia.

He is the author of a major prize-winning book on the future of urban operations (Out of the Mountains. Oxford University Press, 2013), and has authored three other books, as well as 11 research papers on the future of urbanization, conflict and crime. Ha has led several major urban concept design projects for the U.S. and allied governments and worked with city-level governments In the United States, Australia, Latin America and Europe on issues of urban public safety and counterterrorism. His team worked for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) to design a big-data COP/CAP system for operators In Afghanistan, and for the Counterterrorism Technology Support Office (CTTSO) to produce an urban analysis and assessment handbook, and did fieldwork with police, military and civil government in cities under stress In Africa (Mogadishu, Monrovia Benin, Lagos, Tripoli, Nairobi) and Latin America (Medellin, San Buenaventura, Bogota, Cali, San Pedro Sula) as well as working with U.S. cities (New York, NY and Venture CA) and agencies (FBI, local and state law enforcement, customs and border protection) In Australia and the United States. He is a lead researcher for NATO's ongoing Urbanization Program.

Dr. Kilcullen is a distinguished graduate of the Australian Defence Force Academy, where he was awarded the 1986 Chief of Defence Force Prize for the top Army graduate, and of the Australian Command and Staff College, where won the 2001 Commander-ln-Chief’s Sword for the top graduate from all services and the Commander Australian Theatre Award for excellence in Joint Operations. He holds a Bachelor of Arts with Honours in Politics and English from the University of New South Wales, a Masters of Management from the University of Canberra, a Graduate Diploma in Linguistics from the Australian Defence Force School of Languages, and a Ph.D. from the University of New South Wales, focusing on the political anthropology of guerrilla warfare in Indonesia and East Timor. He was awarded the 1995 Sir Edward “Weary” Dunlop Fellowship for his fieldwork in Southeast Asia, and elected Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society In 1996. He teaches at higher educational Institutions in the United States and internationally, and has published numerous scholarly papers, academic monographs and book chapters.

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OPEN Publications

DISCLAIMER: OPEN publications are produced by Headquarters, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation/Strategic Plans and Policy; however, OPEN publications are not formal NATO documents and do not represent the official opinions or positions of NATO or individual Nations. OPEN is an information and knowledge management network, focused on improving the understanding of complex issues, facilitating information sharing and enhancing situational awareness. OPEN products are based upon and link to open-source information from a wide variety of organisations, research centres and media sources. However, OPEN does not endorse and cannot guarantee the accuracy or objectivity of these sources. Absent specific permission, OPEN publications cannot be sold or reproduced for commercial purposes nor may the products and articles may not be copied, reproduced, distributed, or publically displayed without reference to OPEN. Neither NATO or any NATO command, organization, or agency, nor any person acting on their behalf, may be held responsible for the use, which may be made of the information contained therein.

Let us know your thoughts by emailing us at oke.thorngren@act.nato.int

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Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 7 Key insights .................................................................................................................................. 8 Recommendations for NATO .......................................................................................................11 Publication bibliography ..............................................................................................................12

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“A new ecosystem has emerged with technological advancements and the tools are available to all. Our challenge is to harness the capabilities of these advancements in real time”

General André Lanata Supreme Allied Commander Transformation

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Executive Summary On 8 October 2020, NATO Allied Command Transformation and NATO Strategic Direction South Hub co-organized a workshop to share knowledge and develop common understanding on Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT) and their impact on the security agenda in the global South. The goal was to identify opportunities for further cooperation to enhance stability in the South, to understand and identify possible malign usage of EDT and develop a perspective for deterrence, and to build up a network between NATO, partners, and interested organizations in the South. Key insights and recommendations were as follows: • Technological change has been even more transformative and disruptive for the global South than for Europe and North America. While it brings clear benefits, its risks include an expanded attack surface for cyber-threats.

• EDT dual use provides great opportunities to improve stability and development but also for malign and abusive use.

• The Internet of Things (IoT) and proliferation of “smart” urban and industrial infrastructure creates opportunities and threats for connected cities and populations.

• Autonomous systems have become increasingly accessible to both states and non-state armed groups, while advanced manufacturing enables the democratization of lethal technology beyond the reach of nation-states.

• In the near future, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), along with genomic editing, human performance enhancement, crypto-currencies, robotics and space systems, will create further double-edged effects.

• Some African and Middle Eastern countries risk becoming “two-speed” societies where access to jobs and opportunity is increasingly tied to technological literacy available only to a minority of mostly urban and male populations.

• Rural populations may experience a technology and connectivity gap, while educational systems may not be producing graduates with appropriate skills and knowledge for the modern, technologycentric economy.

• The legacy media ecosystem lacks integrity and credibility among local audiences, who are increasingly turning to more disinformation-vulnerable channels. As a result, anti-western narratives appear to be gaining over western-friendly narratives and media channels in the region.

• State and non-state actors are constructing “internet assault forces” to influence public opinion, while hostile state actors are using EDT to help them behave in ambiguous or deniable ways.

• COVID-19 may allow for greater authoritarianism in the region and China, with an extensive suite of technologies optimized for social control and state surveillance, may become an increasingly important partner for authoritarian governments.

• A key recommendation is that NATO may wish to focus on an approach of “deterrence through resilience”, building partnerships with like-minded governments in the global South and sharing perspectives and lessons from the Alliance’s recently-renewed emphasis on Article 3 and the Resilience Agenda.

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Introduction Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT) pose significant challenges for the security environment in Africa and the Middle East. In the last year alone, we have seen attacks using UAVs in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and the UAE; cyberattacks and ransomware attacks such as the Ragnar locker malware, and an ongoing proliferation of lethal technologies into the hands of non-state armed groups and state actors 1. Since 2016, NATO has committed itself to better understand these technologies, to assess their military applicability and to address them through innovative solutions and in collaboration with key stakeholders. To support this commitment, on 8 October 2020, NATO Allied Command Transformation and NATO Strategic Direction South Hub co-organized a workshop on EDT in the Middle East and Africa. The goal was to understand how EDT shape the security environment, and hence the security agenda, for the South.

The workshop was conducted as a webinar, with two panel discussions. Each included one expert from Africa and one from the Middle East, with the first panel focusing on data (to include block chain, disinformation and artificial intelligence) and on the educational and employment impacts of EDT, while the second explored autonomy, space and cyber, and examined the broader implications of EDT for economic and social development, and for security throughout Africa and the Middle East. Workshop participants in the workshop generated additional insights beyond those offered by panellists.

The webinar was conducted under the Chatham House Rule. This paper summarizes, without direct attribution to particular speakers, some of the insights generated during the webinar, and draws out key implications arising for NATO. Although those questions were reasonably posed back in 2010, the last few years illustrate some important initiatives that make peace and stability in the south a priority. It is true that since 1994, the north of Africa has been part of NATO’s concerns through the Mediterranean Dialogue, coordinating with Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia to contribute to regional security and stability. Also, the Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan (since 2015), the Sea Guardian in the Mediterranean (since 2016) and the NATO Mission Iraq (since 2018) clearly illustrate the commitment to training and capacity-building in outer areas in the south, but the alliance is still short on prioritising Africa as part of a more detailed southern initiative.

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Key insights Technological innovation, digital transformation, renewable energy transition and a massive explosion in electronic connectivity over the past decade have brought significant change—for good or ill—in the human condition over an extraordinarily short period.

Workshop participants noted that rapid, far-reaching technological change has been even more transformative (hence also more disruptive) for low- and middle-income countries in the global South than for developed nations in Europe and North America. Societies across Africa and the Middle East have leap-frogged legacy technologies associated with twentieth-century industrialization, jumping straight to distributed, cyber-enabled, internet-driven technologies 2. These are enabled by handheld platforms such as smartphones and tablets, constant connectivity to Wi-Fi or cell phone networks, access to fiber-optic and satellite communications, and space-based systems such as GPS. At the same time, the technological literacy level of populations in the global South has skyrocketed, in line with trends in urbanization, health and economic development across key regions 3.

While the benefits of technological transformation are obvious—from cell phone banking and payment systems, to decentralized consumer credit, to a vibrant start-up culture of entrepreneurship that is lifting communities out of poverty and connecting them to the wider world—panellists noted that its risks are also significant. They include a massively expanded attack surface for cyber-threats from nonstate actors or cyberwarfare by state adversaries, along with increased risk of disinformation, fake news and political manipulation by hostile actors. The emerging Internet of Things (IoT) and the proliferation of “smart” urban and industrial infrastructure controlled by microprocessors and SCADA systems creates both opportunities and threats for connected cities and populations 4. Meanwhile, autonomous systems (including remotely-piloted drones, tele-operated weapons and fully autonomous air, land and maritime systems) have become increasingly accessible to both states and non-state armed groups, even as advanced manufacturing capabilities enable a democratization of lethal technology beyond the reach of nation-states. In the near future, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), along with advances in genomic editing, human performance enhancement, crypto-currencies, robotics and space systems, will create further double-edged effects, posing significant risks and challenges even as they offer unique opportunities.

Panellists noted that African and Middle Eastern societies risk becoming “two-speed” societies where access to jobs and opportunity is tied to technological literacy, gained through technical education and electronic connectivity available only to a minority of mostly urban and male populations 5. In addition to economic marginalization and political exclusion, rural populations may find themselves victims of a technology and connectivity gap. Educational systems designed for an earlier era may not be producing graduates with appropriate skills and knowledge for the modern, technology-centric economy, leading to a workforce mismatch that could increase unemployment and inequality, creating tensions and security challenges for some countries, especially those experiencing a youth bulge 6.

Experts also noted that, since electronic connectivity tends to be better in urban than in rural areas, cities that are already experiencing overstretch as a result of rapid unplanned growth may experience increased pressure from rural-to-urban migration, with newcomers housed in informal settlements on the urban fringes. Energy, food and—most importantly—water shortages are likely to increase the risk of violent unrest 7.

Several speakers emphasized the need to understand EDT within a broader framework of African and Middle Eastern economic and social development. An African panellist noted that in Morocco, which Webinar on EDT in the Middle East and Africa

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representative of North Africa, there has been a huge increase in mobile connectivity, with more than half the population now using social media. This creates a massive attack surface for cyber-theft and intrusion, but neither citizens nor businesses are fully prepared for this risk, with 60% of cyber-cafes, still widely used across the region, infected by malware. She noted the mismatch between education systems and job market needs across the region, and the role of youth as a key stakeholder, but one whose voice is often ignored in policy discussions. She noted the role of AI as a solution for employment challenges, and as a means of addressing data inequality between men/women and urban/rural populations.

A panellist from the Middle East focused on disinformation in societies experiencing rapid EDT growth, noting that disinformation campaigns are tools to further strategic objectives for hostile actors, so that disinformation is not a technical problem but a strategic one. In a situation of polarized, fragile interstate relations, Middle Eastern populations are confronted with a legacy/traditional media ecosystem that lacks integrity and credibility among local audiences. As a consequence, he noted, audiences are increasingly turning to more disinformation-vulnerable channels such as the internet and social media. As a result, and of concern to NATO, anti-western narratives appear to be gaining over western-friendly narratives and media channels in the region. State and non-state actors are constructing “internet assault forces” (in parallel to previously-existing “electronic armies”) as a means to influence public opinion8. State actors are using EDT to help them behave in ambiguous or deniable ways. For example, he noted, the Russian Federation officially supports the Syrian Arab Republic of Bashar al-Assad, yet the Internet Research Agency (an ambiguous actor in cyberspace that has been accused of interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, is controlled by a Russian oligarch close to the Kremlin, and propagates messages that support Russian objectives but is not formally part of the Russian state) has been sponsoring “political engineering” efforts to undermine Assad’s independence and force him to structure his cabinet in line with Moscow’s goals 9 . The same organization has also allegedly been active in Africa 10.

In this sense, panellists noted, EDT allow hostile state actors to employ cyber-militias or cyber-proxies as adjuncts to traditional diplomatic and military pressure in a manner reminiscent of what Communist China’s Three Warfares doctrine describes as “public opinion warfare.” 11 The manipulation of public perception via fake news and social media likewise links online narrative manipulation and physical demonstrations/protests, enabling hostile actors to generate real-world disruption through online influence. The recent proliferation of AI-driven disinformation along with botnets and deep-fake technologies will only increase the opportunity for this type of interference 12.

Another African panellist located EDT within the context of a broader set of strategies to help regional economies grow and diversify, even amid the current global economic crisis triggered by efforts to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic which originated from China in late 2019. Trends affected by EDT include globalization—with longstanding patterns of growth, diversification and investment being thrown into disarray by disruptions to the global supply chain ecosystem and the de-coupling of the world’s two largest economies, China and the United States. In addition, technology and data are continuing to show falling costs and rising access, but this risks the emergence of “two Africas”: a connected, technologically adept, increasingly urban and prosperous continent, alongside a rural population at increasing risk of being left behind. This, panellists noted, had clear implications for internal and interstate security in the region, as governments’ relations with their citizens are being affected by COVID-19. Despite improving governance in many countries, the disease and a series of technologically-enabled government interventions against it may allow for greater authoritarianism in the region. China, with an extensive suite of technologies optimized for social control and state Webinar on EDT in the Middle East and Africa

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A final Middle Eastern panellist offered a strategic framework for AI, noting that companies across the region who once considered their core business to be industrial production now increasingly find themselves in the software and analytics business. The deep digital transformation occurring across the global South creates important challenges, given the speed and exponential growth of data and analytics. Cyber-attacks are becoming larger, more damaging and more mobile and global, while the COVID pandemic has moved large parts of the global economy online, creating a far greater attack surface for hostile cyber actors. Facing this challenge, so-called “underachievers” (including businesses in the region) are burdened by fragmented structures, weak governance and blurred lines of accountability, while overachievers tend to take a human-centric (rather than a data- or code-centric) approach to the problem. Cyber-resilience is an increasingly important characteristic for both civil society and governments across the region. This extends beyond data consumers to SCADA systems, industrial microprocessors, and an increasing range of autonomous devices and systems.

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Recommendations for NATO Two key recommendations for the alliance emerged from the workshop.

First, participants noted the opportunity for NATO to collaborate with Southern partners on “deterrence through resilience”—drawing lessons from the total defense system approach pioneered

by NATO in Scandinavia and the Baltic , to deter hostile state actors by building resilience (and telegraphing national and societal will) across both the cyber and physical domains 14 . Traditional deterrence would still remain a key element of national defense and internal security for all concerned, but in the face of proliferating EDT and ambiguous or non-attributable actors, a focus on resilience was likely to play a key supporting role.

Second, and to support the first recommendation, the Alliance may wish to consider a dialogue, and a series of supporting activities to encourage two-way information sharing, on NATO’s resilience agenda, including the seven baseline requirements (7BR) agreed by the allies in 2016 and since developed into action plans for continuity of government and critical government services, resilient energy supplies, ability to deal effectively with uncontrolled movement of people, resilient food and water resources, ability to deal with mass casualties, resilient civil communications systems and resilient transport systems 15.

It was felt that the 7BR categories might form a useful framework for engagement with the South on EDT, with an initial focus on resilient health systems, people movement and civil communications.

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References For UAV attacks see Alexander Balas, UAVs in the Middle East: Coming of Age, Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies (RUSI) Commentary, 10 July 2019, online at https://www.rusi.org/commentary/UAVs-in-the-Middle-East-Coming-of-Age; for the Ragnar locker malware see McAfee, MVISION Insights: Ragnar Locker ransomware, technical insights article, 28 August 2020 at https://kc.mcafee.com/corporate/index?page=content&id=KB92601&locale=en_US 1

Wilfried A. Kouame, Leapfrogging: The Key to Africa’s Development, Tokyo: World Bank, 2019, at http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/700131563238536580/071619-ticad-seminar-21-leapfroggingWilfried-Kouame.pdf 2

Maysa Jalbout and Samar Farah (2016), Will the Technology Disruption Widen or Close the Skills Gap in the Middle East and North Africa? Washington DC: Brookings Institution, at https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Technology-Disruptionv5.pdf

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See Nour Al Atassi, “SIM Boxes and Internet of Things Pose Rising Fraud Threats in Middle East and Africa” in Syniverse, August 17th, 2016, at https://www.syniverse.com/blog/security/sim_box_fraud_internet_of_things_fraud_middle_east/ and “Internet of Things set to double in the Middle East and Africa by 2023” in Payspace, 8 January 2020, at https://payspacemagazine.com/tech/internet-of-things-set-to-double-in-the-middle-eastand-africa-by-2023/ 4

See Amrote Abdella, “How investing in digital infrastructure can make the difference to Africa’s economic recovery”, 2 September 2020 at https://news.microsoft.com/en-xm/2020/09/02/howinvesting-in-digital-infrastructure-can-make-the-difference-to-africas-economic-recovery/ 5

See Edward Gardner (2003) Creating Employment in the Middle East and North Africa, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, at https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/med/2003/eng/gardner/index.htm 6

Omer Karasapan, “Middle East food security amid the COVID-19 pandemic”, Brookings Institution, 14 July 2020, at https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/07/14/middle-east-foodsecurity-amid-the-covid-19-pandemic/ 7

See Helmi Noman, The Emergence of Open and Organized Pro-Government Cyber Attacks in the Middle East: The Case of the Syrian Electronic Army, n.d. at https://opennet.net/emergence-open-andorganized-pro-government-cyber-attacks-middle-east-case-syrian-electronic-army and AFP, “In divided Iraq, ‘electronic armies’ threaten activists, media”, in Arab News, 6 September 2019, at https://www.arabnews.com/node/1550656/middle-east 8

Adrian Chen, “The Agency” in New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/magazine/the-agency.html 9

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Tim Lister, Sebastian Shukla and Clarissa Ward, “Putin’s Army: Russia is tightening its grip on Africa.

But Moscow doesn’t want to admit it”, CNN Special Report, August 2019, at https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2019/08/africa/putins-private-army-car-intl/ 10

Dean Cheng, “How China is Using Coronavirus to Wage Political Warfare” in The National Interest, April 4, 2020, at https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-china-using-coronavirus-wage-politicalwarfare-140347 11

See Milenko Nedelkovski, “AI and Ghost Journalists: behind an anti-Qatar propaganda campaign, the shadow of the UAE” in MINA Report, October 13, 2020 at https://www.minareport.com/2020/10/13/aiand-ghost-journalists-behind-an-anti-qatar-propaganda-campaign-the-shadow-of-the-uae/ and Samikshya Siwakoti, Jacob N. Shapiro, Isra Thange and Alaa Ghoneim, “Coronavirus disinformation adds conspiratorial fuel to a volatile Middle East” in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 7, 2020 at https://thebulletin.org/2020/09/coronavirus-disinformation-adds-conspiratorial-fuel-to-a-volatilemiddle-east/ 12

Abdi Latif Dahir, “China is exporting its digital surveillance methods to African governments” in Quartz Africa, November 1, 2018, at https://qz.com/africa/1447015/china-is-helping-african-countriescontrol-the-internet/ and Scott N. Romaniuk and Tobias Burgers, “How China’s AI Technology Exports Are Seeding Surveillance Societies Globally: China is exploring technologies that enable high tech state authoritarianism” in The Diplomat, October 18, 2018 at https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/how-chinasai-technology-exports-are-seeding-surveillance-societies-globally/ 13

Guillaume Lasconjarias (2017) Deterrence through Resilience: NATO, the Nations and the Challenges of Being Prepared, Rome: NATO Defence College, Eisenhower Paper No. 7, May 2017 at https://www.ndc.nato.int/download/downloads.php?icode=516 14

NATO, Resilience and Article 3, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_132722.htm

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