Post Disaster Re-Construction

Post Disaster Re-Construction NEPAL 12.11.2017

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Authors Srujana Bhoopanam Suprima Bhele Submitted to: Prof. Leah Meisterlin Lab Instructor: Jeremy White TA: Rebecca Nobel Fall 2017

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Table of Contents 01. Introduction 11. Research Question 13. Methodology 15. Findings 21. Ranking 25. Service Progress 31. Classification 34. Conclusion 35. Bibliography

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Introduction On April 25th, 2015, Gorkha was hit with an earthquake that scaled 7.8 magnitude on the richter scale. There were many subsequent several aftershocks which also included another earthquake that measured 7.3 magnitude. These resulted in severe damage and destroyed nearly 900,000 buildings and displacement of large number of people.

This was the main reason for the emergency shelter as well as temporary and transitional housing.

Why Earthquakes in Nepal?

The Earth’s crust is made of large tectonic plates. These land masses, which sometimes include whole continents, are constantly moving and bumping into each other. Nepal Straddles the fault line between two of these plates; the Indian and the Eurasian plates. These are being forced up against and under each other, at a rate of about 5cm each year. That may not sound like very much, but there is tremendous force behind them and when this builds up, an earthquake results.

The heavily populated Kathmandu valley has a 300-metre-deep layer of clay beneath it. This reflects and focuses the seismic waves of an earthquake within the valley, resulting in what is known as soil liquefaction. This occurs when vibrations cause solid ground to turn in to something like quicksand. As a result, buildings and roads can be swallowed by the earth.

Nepal has been a victim of severe political instability for more than a decade. On top of a political turbulence, the geographical turbulence put the country in chaos. The pro4 | Introduction

Aftermath of earthquakes in Nepal

cess of reconstruction and rebuilding is still going on. The

for random selection. These VDCs were in the 14 priority

country received many pledges of aid from world powers

affected districts. The population of these VDCs was con-

but because of the political instability, that was all there

sidered as per the census that was taken in 2011.

was: just pledge. The epicenter was at Southwest of the Kathmandu Valley (the capital, and the only place with an

The strategy was that the first 2000 samples would be dis-

international airport).

tributed by district proportionally and the rest 100 surveys shall be allocated to districts where the total proportional

A survey was conducted by Nepal - CFP-reconstruction.

sample size was under 100 respondents. This was done

Our project is solely based on this survey. This data is

to increase the population for an adequate district level

collected from the survey conducted in 14 earthquake

analysis of the findings. So, The VDCs in every district vary

affected district in Nepal in September 2017. Total of 2100

upon the number of samples in each district. A single VDC

respondent were interviewed.

shall have a minimum of two wards sampled, and each ward a minimum of 10 surveys completed. Both VDCs and

The 60 percent or more of the owners of houses were

wards are selected randomly. But, twenty percent of the

eligible for the housing reconstruction grant that was con-

total sample will be allocated for municipalities and these

sidered the part of the surveys operating area and eligible

are also selected randomly. In municipalities a minimum of three wards will be sampled, with a minimum of 10 surveys collected per ward.

The government is centralized in the capital and road transportation around the mountainous landscape of Nepal is the major way of transporting goods. The government started giving housing loans and aid to its citizens. So we plan to study the extent of how far the aid is going, and reaching the people in need.

Timeline of Earthquakes in Nepal Introduction | 5

01

02

Legend

0

Nepal

62.5

125

250 Miles

Far-Western Mid-Western

West

Central East

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Legend Nepal Mahakali

Karnali

0

62.5

125

250 Miles

Seti

Dhaualagiri Gandaki

Bheri Rapti

Bagmati Mechi Lumbini

6 | Introduction

Narayani

Janakpur

Sagarmatha

Koshi

Administrative Divisions of Nepal 1) Nepal Political Boundary 2) 5 Developmental Regions 3) 14 Zones 4) 75 Districts 5) 3982 Subdivisions (Village Developmental Committees (VDCs) and Municipalities)

05

04

Legend Nepal

0

62.5

125

250 Miles

Introduction | 7

Kathmandu and districts of Nepal This shows the 77 districts of Nepal. The capital, Kathmandu is also highlighted here. Districts second level of administrative divisions after provinces. Highways are also Indicated in this.

Kathmandu and districts of Nepal This map shows the affected districts of the Nepal after the April 2015 Earthquake. The epicenter was in Gorkha.

Districts Affected Districts Gorkha Major Roads

8 | Introduction

Kathmandu

125 Miles

Epicenter

125 Miles Introduction | 9

The IMPACT Its epicenter was at Barpak, Gorkha, and its hypo center

Stupa. Geophysicists and other experts had warned for

was at a depth of approximately 8.2 km (5.1 mi). It was

decades that Nepal was vulnerable to a deadly earth-

the worst natural disaster to strike Nepal since the 1934

quake, particularly because of its geology, urbanization,

Nepal–Bihar earthquake. The ground motion recorded in

and architecture.

Kathmandu valley was of low frequency which, along with its occurrence at an hour where many people in rural ar-

Continued aftershocks occurred throughout Nepal at the

eas were working outdoors, decreased the loss of property intervals of 15–20 minutes, with one shock reaching a and human life.

magnitude of 6.7 on 26 April at 12:54:08 NST. The country also had a continued risk of landslides.

Hundreds of thousands of people were made homeless with entire villages flattened, across many districts of the

A major aftershock occurred on 12 May 2015 at 12:50 NST

country. Centuries-old buildings were destroyed at UNES-

with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.3. The epicenter was

CO World Heritage Sites in the Kathmandu Valley, including near the Chinese border between the capital of Kathmansome at the Kathmandu Durbar Square, the Patan Durbar

du and Mt. Everest. More than 200 people were killed and

Square, the Bhaktapur Durbar Square, the Changu Narayan over 2,500 were injured by this aftershock.

Temple, the Boudhanath stupa and the Swayambhunath

10 | Introduction

Research Question Due to severe damage to buildings, there was an immense need to start re-construction by the government for the people. So, the government started its mission of building homes for the victims and by keeping a record of all the built houses.

Through this project, we wanted to do an analysis on the following questions about post disaster effects and efforts that were taken in Nepal.

i) How does the death toll and injuries vary with varying household densities in each district? ii) How does the death toll and injuries vary with varying elevation levels within the VDCs ? iii) Are the number of deaths and injuries decreasing as one moves away from the epicenter? iv) Are the casualties in the regions distinguished by their population densities and building styles?

After analyzing about deaths and injuries, we investigated about how the needs of the people are being fulfilled. i) Are the needs of VDCs closer to Kathmandu being more addressed to than the ones away from it?

In order to answer the above questions, we will be answering other spatial questions in the process.

Research Question | 11

Methodology

12 | Methodology

Methodology

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Methodology DISTRICT : Death toll and Injured count To investigate the variation in deaths and injuries, the

Similarly, the third step included finding out the number of

household densities of each affected district were plotted

injured people per district and plotting it on the centroid

and were represented on the map of Nepal with gradual

of the district.

variation in color.

The second step included finding out the number of deaths per district and plotting it on the centroid of the

particular district. The size of the point was proportional to Limitations This mapping be done only on the district level since the the number of deaths in the district. information regarding the number of deaths for each VDC To get the centeroids, feature - to - point tool was used.

was not available.

We can note that the household density in Gorkha is least according to the analysis where as it is the highest in Kathmandu.

Houses per Sq. m 0.2 E05 2.0 E05 6.0 E05 12 E05 20 E05 40 E05

14 | Death Toll and Injured Count

125 Miles

Houses per Sq. m 0.2 E05 Death Count

2.0 E05

1600 1050 530 60 30 0

6.0 E05 12 E05

70 Miles

20 E05 40 E05

The map indicates the household densities along with death count as per the range.(As on April 30th)

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Injured Count

Houses per Sq. m 0.2 E05

2400 1100 750 130 50 0

Legend Number of injured as of April 30 !

0 - 50

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51 - 130

!

2.0 E05 6.0 E05 12 E05 20 E05

70 Miles

40 E05 The map indicates the household densities along with death count as per the range.(As on April 30th) Death Toll and Injured Count

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ELEVATIONS: Death toll and Injured count Nepal is very geographically diverse. The elevation in the

In the northern and colder climates, people use mud for

country ranges from 60 meters above sea level in the

building purposes, which doesn’t make for a stronger

south to 8848 meters (Mt. Everest) on the North. The

structure but at times of extreme shakes, these buildings

elevation impacts people’s way of life and that includes

do not cause as much casualties as cement buildings.

building and building material choices.

Southern parts of Nepal are also much plainer compared to northern parts which might have a cause for why there are less casualties in the south compared to the northern

Digital Elevation Model of Nepal was a raster map. Reclas-

areas.

sify tool was used to convert and obtain classes of elevations. The new data was then converted into polygons with raster-to-polygon tools.

Level in m 60 1650 3100 4600 8700

1 Mile The map indicates the Nepal map with different elevation levels

16 | Death Toll and Injured Count

Level in m Death Count

60 1650

2000 500 300 100 50 0

3100 4600 5400 8700

1 Mile Death count overlayed on affected districts elevation

Level in m Injured Count 2040 1090 748 129 50 0

60 1650 3100 4600 5400 8700

1 Mile Injuries count overlayed on affected districts elevation

Death Toll and Injured Count

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Methodology

18 | Methodology

Our approach to map housing rank includes a mathematical calculation. Materials are ranked based on their strength. As shown to the left, the databases had six categories for materials used on outer walls: In addition to unstated (assigned 1) and non stated (assigned 0), there are Mud, Wood, Cement, RCC (Reinforced Cement Concrete). A similar approach was used to rank the buildings of roofs as well.

The formula for an average rank calculation is given below:

Methodology

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Mud bonded brick (2)

Outer Wall Ranking

The ranking of the walls was based on the materials that they were made of.

We gave the categorizations for the following material palette below :

WALL STRUCTURES

Mudbonded bondedbrick brick(2) (2) Mud

Cement bonded brick (4)

RCC with Pillar (5)

Rank 2: Mud bonded brick

Cement Cementbonded bondedbrick brick(4)(4)Rank 4:

Cement bonded brick

Mud bonded brick (2)

Wooden Pillar (3) Cement bonded brick (4)

20 | Ranking

Rank 3: Wooden Pillars

RCC with Pillar (5) RCC with Pillar (5)

Rank 5: RCC Pillar

! (

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Outer Wall Rank 2.0

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Legend

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4.0

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Legend ! 51 - 130

2.400001 - 2.700000 Rank of outer walls

131 - 750 AD_injuries

2.700001 - 4.000000 2.012690 - 2.100000 District 2.100001 - 2.200000 Nepal 2.200001 - 2.400000

!

1101 - 2400 0 - 50

!

51 - 130 131 - 750

2.700001 - 4.000000

751 - 1100

0

62.5

0

125

62.5

( !

250 Miles

125

250 Miles

1101 - 2400

( ! ( !

( !

! (

( !

( ! ( !

Outer Wall Rank 2.0

2.100001 - 2.200000

125 Miles

Outer wall ranking and number of injured casualties (which lies on each district's centroid).

751 - of 1100 Number injured as of April 30

2.400001 - 2.700000

! 2.012690 - 2.100000

( !

0 - 50

!

2.200001 - 2.400000 AD_outerwall_rank

!

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Number of injured as of April 30

2.100001 - 2.200000

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2.7

AD_injuries

! 2.012690 - 2.100000

Death Counts 1600 1050 530 60 30 AD_outerwall_rank ( ( ( 0 Rank of outer walls

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Nepal

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District

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Injury Counts ( ( ( 2400 1100 !

750 130 50 AD_outerwall_rank ( ( ( 0 Rank of outer walls

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Outer wall ranking and number of death casualties (which lies on each district's centroid).

Number of deaths as of April 30 0 - 30

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2.4 AD_points

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2.2 Legend

( ! ( !

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Ranking

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Galvanized Iron Roof (7)

Roof Ranking The ranking of the roofs was based on the materials that they were made of. We gave the categorizations

Wood Plank Roof(4)

for the following material palette below :

Roof Structures Tile Slate Roof (5)

Tile Slate Roof (5) Roof Structures Mud Roof (2)

Mud Roof (2)

Thatched Straw Roof(3)

RCC Roof (6) Thatched Straw Roof(3)

RCC Roof (6) Thatched Straw Roof(3)

Galvanized Iron Roof (7)

22 | Ranking

RCC Roof (6)

Wood Plank Roof(4)

Galvanized Iron Roof (7) Unstated (0) Others (1)

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Roof Rank !

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2.160000 - 2.390000 2.390001 - 4.350000 4.350001 - 5.190000

2.1

Legend

( !

(

0 - 50

(

51 - 130

0

35

70

( !

70 Miles

140 Miles

(

!

0 - 50

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51 - 130 131 - 750

2.700001 - 4.000000

751 - 1100

0

62.5

125

250 Miles

1101 - 2400

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Roof Rank

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2.1

2.3 Death Counts 1600 4.3 1050 5.1 530 60 5.8 30 Legend ( ( ( 0 clipped_housing_Final AD_points 6.3 !

Build Structure Rating Number of deaths as of April 30

!

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1101 - 2400 as of April 30 Number of injured

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6.3 Roof Number of injured as of April 30 ranking and number of injuries casualties (which lies on each district's centroid).

2.400001 - 2.700000

Nepal

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5.8

AD_injuries ( 751 - 1100

District

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AD_injuries

Rank of outer walls

2.200001 - 2.400000

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5.1

Legend ( 131 - 750

5.830001 - 6.320000 2.012690 - 2.100000 Nepal 2.100001 - 2.200000

( !

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4.3

AD_outerwall_rank

5.190001 - 5.830000

( ! ( !

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2.3

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Injuries Counts !

2400 1100 !

750 130 50 clipped_housing_Final ( ( ( 0 Build Structure Rating

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70 Miles

Roof ranking and number of death casualties (which lies on each district's centroid).

Ranking | 23

VDCs airport service with progress rate

Rate of Progress 0 1 2

30 miles

3 4

Rate of progress of the districts

5

Rate RateofofProgress Progress (0-5) 0.65 0.650000 - 1.700000 1.700001 - 2.700000 1.70 2.700001 - 3.500000

2.70

3.500001 - 4.050000

3.50

4.050001 - 4.860000

4.05 4.86

24 | Service Progress

0

30

60

Rate of 120 progress of the VDCs Miles

The rate of progress were calculated based on survey results done by Inter Agency Community Feedback Project in September 27.

People replied in six categories to the question: "What is the situation of your home?"

For our visualization purposes, we assigned numbers to the categories as shown to the right and took an average of the scores for a particular district and VDC. The challenge to map VDCs was that not all affected VDCs were surveyed during the month. The process is still ongoing.

In the map to the top right, it can be seen that there is no specific pattern to how the rate of progress is going. Our hypothesis was that areas near Kathmandu were being served better than the far off places.

We based that on road transportation facilities for transportation of goods.

However, we also tried to see if availability of airports have any factor to play here.

So, we buffered 15 km radius around airports in and near the affected areas.

We did a search to see what subdivisions are served by airports but still have a low rate of progress.

Kirtipur and Tiplung came to be the two to fit the criteria.

We did another search to see what subdivisions are not served by airports but have a high rate of progress.

More than10 VDCs came to fit the criteria.

Service Progress

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Rate of Progress 0.65 1.70 2.70 3.50 4.05 4.86 15 Km buffer from Airport

26 | Service Progress

125 Miles

Rate of progress of the VDCs and the 15km buffer around airports

Service Progress

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Tiplung

VDCs

75 Miles

Airport Service Area Subdivision VDCs

Served by airport but high rate of progress

28 | Service Progress

Unserved by airport but high rate of progress Service Progress

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Classification

While doing disaster analysis, one of the major issues we wanted to focus on was safety. When it comes to earthquake, open space is a vital necessity. We wanted to calculated open space ratio to that of population in the affected districts. However, lack of data did not allow us to do so. So, we attempted a classification training tool to try and create some samples of how we'd like to move ahead with making data to find open spaces with base maps.

Legend 30 | Classification

Legend res1

Vacant Spaces

Kathmandu Durbar Square, classification trial

Built Spaces

<all other values>

gridcode Vacant spaces Built Spaces

Classification

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Base map and classification map of Naikap VDC, Kathmandu

32 | Classification

0.5 Miles

Legend Green Space Open Space Build ups

Classification

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Conclusions Our study challenged our primary hypothesis, so in the process we kept adding new questions.

Our primary challenge was lack of data and to add to that, we also faced with inconsistency of data.

Nepal has it's own language but we are working on datasets that are in English, so we found many inconsistencies in naming conventions of different datasets used. It was a rather tedious process to check and match attributes for table join purposes. So, this might have resulted in some errors in data for out map generation.

So, in conclusion, we found no visual proof on relation between proximity to Kathmandu and number of casualties.

34 | Conclusions

DATA SETS 2011 Nepal Census Data (areas affected by the 2015 Earthquake) - Humanitarian Data Exchange. (n.d.). Retrieved November 1, 2017, from https://data.humdata.org/dataset/2011-nepal Kathmandu, Nepal - GIS Data. (n.d.). Retrieved November 14, 2017, from https://data.trimble.com/market/geography/ city/GIS_Data_Kathmandu_Nepal.html Nepal GIS. (n.d.). Retrieved November 1, 2017, from http://tank-ojha.com/index.htm Nepal GIS Maps, POIâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s and HERE spatial data | LeadDog Consulting. (n.d.). Retrieved November 1, 2017, from http://goleaddog.com/gis-map/asia/nepal/ Trimble Data Marketplace. (n.d.). Retrieved November 1, 2017, from https://market.trimbledata.com/#/datasets/ osm-openstreetmap-planet?east=85.382076&north=27.766681&south=27.653799&west=85.262016&zoom=13 Download Free Nepal Country, Cities and Places GIS Shapefile Map Layers. (n.d.). Retrieved November 1, 2017, from http://www.mapcruzin.com/free-nepal-country-city-place-gis-shapefiles.htm

Bibliography Khazai_etal_2015_EmergentIssuesAndVulnerabilityFactorsInTemporaryAndIntermediateShelters.pdf. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.sai.uni-heidelberg.de/geo/pdfs/Khazai_etal_2015_EmergentIssuesAndVulnerabilityFactorsInTemporaryAndIntermediateShelters.pdf Nepal - CFP-reconstruction survey - Humanitarian Data Exchange. (n.d.). Retrieved December 10, 2017, from https:// data.humdata.org/dataset/nepal-cfp-reconstruction-survey Why Nepal is vulnerable to earthquakes. (n.d.). Retrieved December 10, 2017, from http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/ asia/2015/04/nepal-vulnerable-earthquakes-150426120653711.html

Data Sets and Bibliography

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