Looking to the future

SUNATA 16

Kate Curran

Director of Human Resources

Increased automation, rapid technology advances, economic instability and a global pandemic all combine for heightened uncertainty. How can we prepare for what lies ahead for the future of work?

For decades, experts have been hypothesising about the future of work, in particular the impact that technology and automation will have on employment. There are many experts who argue that technology is taking over employees’ work. One such expert is Daniel Susskind, an Oxford University academic. In his book A World Without Work, he argues that 'technology is taking over existing jobs faster than humans can create new ones, and that soon we will work a lot less, if at all' (Stapleton 2021, p. 12). Looking back historically as technology has advanced, there have been some industries and job functions that have suffered; however, the net impact on jobs overall hasn’t been negative. 'Today, there are over five million more Australians employed than there were in 1988' (Deloitte 2019. p. 1). Looking forward, it is predicted this trend will remain. Recently, it has been estimated that by 2025 85 million jobs may be displaced; however, it is expected that 97 million roles may emerge (World Economic Forum 2020, p. 5). In The future of work report (World Economic Forum 2020, p. 36), the top 10 skills required by 2025 were identified as: • analytical thinking and innovation • active learning and learning strategies • complex problem-solving • critical thinking and analysis • creativity, originality and initiative • leadership and social influence • technology use, monitoring and control • technology design and programming • resilience, stress tolerance and flexibility • reasoning, problem-solving and ideation. When compared to the first edition of this report by the World Economic Forum in 2016, problem solving and critical thinking were the two top skills; this is relatively unchanged with the two top skills focused on thinking skills. The 2020 report is the first time there has been inclusion of self-management skills such as ‘active learning and learning strategies’ and ‘resilience, stress tolerance and flexibility’. After the challenges 2020 brought for the world of work, it seems little wonder that ‘resilience, stress tolerance and flexibility’ have made their way onto this list. Skills of a thinking nature remain the most prevalent with five of the ten identified skills categorised as problem solving. Many of these skills that top the list could be what are often referred to as soft skills; however, looking to the future, they seem crucial skills for individual growth and success. Despite there being only two skills listed of a technical nature, 60 per cent of Australian adults are worried that automation is putting jobs at risk and 59 per cent believe technology will change their job in the next three to five years (PWC 2020, p. 12). While the pace of technology adoption is predicted to continue to increase and will require employees to remain technologically capable, technology is not a substitute for human employees. Steve Jobs, for all of his achievements in technology development at Apple, was quoted as saying: 'Technology is nothing. What’s important is that you have faith in people, that they’re basically good and smart and if you give them tools, they’ll do wonderful things with them.' Technology, when used well, makes a workforce more productive and releases employees from work that can be automated, allowing them time to concentrate on more complex tasks. Afterall, if we were still using technology of previous decades, working from home seamlessly, like many have experienced in the past year, wouldn’t have been as successful.

In Deloitte’s paper, The path to prosperity – Why the future of work is human, the argument is strong that 'humans' are the key to the future of work. It is forecast that by 2030 two thirds of jobs will be soft-skill intensive. There has been a shift from work with the hands to work with the head. There is also the work of the heart, which is seen to be the hardest of all to automate. This work of the heart is the interpersonal and creative aspects of work. A key to the success with automating jobs and using technology is the link between whether they are routine or non-routine jobs. It is almost impossible to automate a nonroutine job. Technology can still assist with a non-routine job. For example, a surgeon can use technological advances to diagnose a patient; however, it will still require the essential skills of the surgeon to perform the surgery and deal with the many unpredictable variables at play (Deloitte 2019, p. 8). If we continue on our current path, by 2030 it is estimated that there will be a total of 29 million skill shortages, almost 25 per cent higher than the shortages we are already experiencing (Deloitte 2019, p. 24). With 21 per cent of employing businesses reporting difficulty finding suitably skilled staff in December 2020 (ABS 2020), skill shortages already seem to have had an impact on some industries in Australia. Playing into these potential skills shortages in Australia is the COVID-19 response, with border closures impacting the availability of the international labour market.

The issue of a potential skills shortage is shared by both the employee and employer. Without adequately upskilling the individual, employability is compromised. It is also being recognised that for many the traditional linear career path is no longer a reality. Employees are pivoting between careers;

sometimes this is into evolving industries that require them to upskill and retrain. Conversely, if employers don’t invest in their employees, they run to risk of losing their competitive advantage and being left behind. On average, companies estimate that around 40 per cent of workers will require reskilling of six months or less and for those workers set to remain in their roles, the share of core skills that will change in the next five years is 40 per cent (World Economic Forum 2020, p. 5-6). In response to this skills shortage, 94 per cent of business leaders report that they expect employees to pick up new skills on the job, a sharp increase from 65 per cent in 2018. Employers also expect to utilise internal training heavily with 39 per cent expecting to utilise internal training departments and 16 per cent using online platforms (World Economic Forum 2020, p. 37-38). The need for development of employees is a key priority for businesses. In a recent Ganter survey of 800 human resources professionals, 68 per cent rated the need to build critical skills and competencies as their number one priority for 2021 (Ganter 2021, p. 2). It is little wonder it is a priority when recent Gallup research reports that organisations with a strategic investment in employee development report 11 per cent greater profitability and are twice as likely to retain their employees (Mullen O’Keefe 2020). With one popular estimate that 65 per cent of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new jobs that don’t exist (World Economic Forum 2016), it seems an impossible feat to predict the future of work. What we do know is that change is a certainty and the world of work is going to look very different in the future. Given this, it is arguable that the key to the future of work is lifelong learning coupled with a growth mindset and agility. Where we stand now, it is hard to see how robots and technological advancements will ever replace what humans can offer with empathy, care and connection.

References

Australian Bureau of Statistics, December 2020, Business Indicators, Business Impacts of COVID-19, viewed 6 June 2021, https://www.abs.gov. au/statistics/economy/business-indicators/business-conditions-andsentiments/dec-2020 Deloitte 2019, The path to prosperity – Why the future of work is human, viewed 30 May 2021, https://images.content.deloitte.com. au/Web/DELOITTEAUSTRALIA/%7B90572c4f-4bb5-4b54-bf27cc100d86890d%7D_20190612-btlc-inbound-future-work-humanreport.pdf?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_ campaign=20190612-btlc-inbound-future-work-human&utm_ content=body Ganter 2021, Top 5 Priorities for HR Leaders in 2021, viewed 6 June 2021, https://emtemp.gcom.cloud/ngw/globalassets/en/human-resources/ documents/trends/top-priorities-for-hr-leaders-2021.pdf Mullen O’Keefe 2020, What Companies Are Getting Wrong About Employee Development, viewed 6 June 2021, https://www.gallup. com/workplace/311099/companies-getting-wrong-employeedevelopment.aspx PWC 2020, Where next for skills? – How business-led upskilling can reboot Australia, viewed 31 May 2021, https://www.pwc.com.au/importantproblems/where-next-for-skills/where-next-for-skills-report.pdf Stapleton, D 2021, 'Where to next?', HRM The Magazine of the Australian HR Institute, p. 12-16. World Economic Forum, October 2020, The Future of Jobs Report 2020, viewed 31 May 2021, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_ of_Jobs_2020.pdf World Economic Forum 2016, The Future of Jobs – Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, viewed 31 May 2021, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_ of_Jobs.pdf SUNATA 17