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Balance of Power
Strategic Vision vol. 6, no. 31 (February 2017)
Southeast Asian nations seek to balance relations between America, China
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Kennedy Lin
Representatives from participant countries gather for the opening of Cobra Gold 2017 in Utapao, Thailand.
photo: Markus Castaneda
In January of 2017, Cambodia informed the United States that it intended to cancel the annual Angkor Sentinel joint military exercise for the next two years, which had already been in the planning stages. Officials claimed that the Angkor Sentinel exercise had to be “postponed” because Cambodian forces would be unable to fully participate as a result of demands on them related to elections to be held in June, as well as a six-month campaign to eradicate drug-related crime. Other activities, including military exchanges and training programs, were not affected. This development indicates that some Southeast Asian nations, such as Cambodia and the Philippines, a traditional US ally, have recently adjusted their diplomatic and military relations to find a new balance between the United States and China, rather than favoring the traditionally dominant United States.
Phnom Penh’s rationale for cooperating with Washington derives mainly from political and economic motivations. Diplomatic relations between the two countries were established in 1993 after the freely elected Royal Government of Cambodia was formed. Since 2010, Cambodia and the United States have held the annual Angkor Sentinel joint exercise, which is designed to collectively strengthen humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) capabilities, and improve military-to-military cooperation. The drill brings together personnel from Cambodia’s army, the National Center for Peacekeeping Forces, Mines and Explosive Remnants of War Clearance and the Royal Gendarmerie of Cambodia, with US forces from US Army Pacific, as well as several other units. This exercise is also a part of the Global Peace Operations Initiatives (GPOI) which is a US government-funded security-assistance program intended to enhance international capacity to effectively conduct United Nations and regional peace support operations (PSOs) by building partner-country capabilities to train and sustain peacekeeping proficiencies. In Asia, a number of countries have participated in GPOI training events, including Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand, and Nepal.
Closer relations
The United States is also working with Cambodia to further develop its democratic institutions and promote respect for human rights. Increasing trade and addressing challenges from promoting regional security to expanding global health are also important areas of cooperation. Building a closer relationship with the United States helps Cambodia’s government to consolidate its international political legitimacy, which has often been criticized by other governments and human rights groups for violations of international human rights law. The United States also provides significant economic support to Cambodia, and is now its largest export partner.
In his first term, the administration of former US President Barack Obama was clear that it considered strong relationships in the Asia-Pacific region to be a top priority. Most regional countries doubtless were eager to grasp the opportunity to pursue deeper engagement with the United States in economic, political, security, and geostrategic areas. This interest was strengthened because it was evident that China was rapidly modernizing, and this produced fear and uncertainty about China’s ambitions in the region.
Strategic considerations
According to the balance of power theory in international relations, a rising power is likely to take advantage of its position to attack weaker neighbors. This creates an incentive for those threatened to unite in a defensive coalition to balance against the rising power. Although Southeast Asian nations were not strenuously balancing against China, some regional countries such as Vietnam nonetheless took measures to enhance defense relations with the United States. In 2012, then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called for a US-Vietnamese strategic partnership. Following that, the US Navy held annual exercises with the Vietnamese navy, and Hanoi opened its commercial repair facilities at Cam Ranh Bay to all navies. In 2011, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on defense cooperation. In June 2012, then US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta visited Cam Ranh Bay where both countries have conducted joint naval activities.
Until recently, the Philippines has also publicly supported the US rebalancing strategy. Under former President Benigno Aquino, the Philippines forged closer military ties with the United States in an effort to deal with the China threat. Manila reinforced its defense arrangement with the United States, holding increased joint naval exercises, and requested that the United States deploy spy planes in the South China Sea area. The Philippines has also offered greater access to its military facilities in exchange for increased US military assistance.
Likewise, Cambodia took the opportunity to balance its foreign policy and improve relations with the United States. Cambodia became more active in regional forums and participated in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defense Ministers Meeting plus Eight, with the first such meeting held in Hanoi on 12 October, 2010, as a link to shape their defense relations. From 2010 until 2016, they achieved a number of military goals in such areas as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR), explosive ordnance disposal, countering improvised explosive devices, and leadership training. Additionally, Cambodia collaborated with the United States to send its forces to take part in UN peacekeeping missions in a number of countries.
After the results of the arbitration case on the South China Sea, the relationship between Southeast Asian countries and the United States and China, which are the two biggest powers in the region, has gradually changed, from one of soft balancing to maintaining more equal engagement between the two powers. This shift is related to two broad developments in the region.
The first major development is the continual increase of China’s influence in the region. China’s increasing influence was reflected in the November 2015 signing of the Protocol to Amend the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation between China and ASEAN. Under this agreement, all sides agreed to explore and undertake economic cooperation activities in economic and technical areas. As a result, bilateral trade has surged nearly 60 times what it was in 1991, to reach US$472 billion in 2015, and stakeholders eye continued growth, aiming at reaching US$1 trillion in trade by 2020.
Although the Arbitral Tribunal at The Hague issued its final award on the South China Sea dispute, and despite the fact that the United States has been trying to internationalize the dispute, ASEAN-China relations are moving forward. As the communiqué issued at the conclusion of the ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting noted that a solution to the disputes rests on efforts to “enhance mutual trust and confidence,” and to “exercise restraint” by avoiding actions that may complicate the situation. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte also sought to heal relations with China, rather than inflame them by pressing the tribunal’s ruling.
Three F-16s at Misawa Air Base in Japan taxi towards the runway during exercise COPE NORTH 2017.
photo: Sadie Colbert
Chinese President Xi Jin-ping told the World Economic Forum in January 2017 that China would advance the building of a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific and conduct negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership to form a global network of free trade arrangements. This further demonstrates that China is successfully utilizing economic measures to increase its geopolitical influence. As a result, Southeast Asian nations will likely be eager to maintain good relations with China in the future.
The second major development to impact the region was the election of Donald Trump as US president, and his calls for reduced American involvement in the region. All of ASEAN is nervous about how the Trump administration will handle relations with Asia. Immediately after taking office, Trump withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP), a trade agreement negotiated by the Obama administration and 11 other Pacific Rim countries. He also talked about requiring Japan and South Korea to pay more for US troops stationed on their soil. This has added to an atmosphere of uncertainty pervading the Southeast Asian region.
Hedging bets
The impact of these two developments is evident in Cambodia’s decision to postpone its exercise with the United States. Given the growing complexities in the international arena, Cambodia is seeking to hedge its bets and avoid the appearance of becoming too close to the United States. According to Cambodian Defense Ministry spokesman General Chhum Socheath, Cambodian forces try to make friends with all countries in the region, including the United States, China, Russia and Vietnam, to which they have also sent officers for training.
Master-at-Arms Rachel Arp demonstrates handcuffing techniques to Royal Cambodia Navy sailors during a joint US-Cambodian training exercise.
photo: Jay C. Pugh
Cambodia and China have also recently strengthened military ties. The two countries held their first ever naval training exercise at the end of last year. Besides the United States and China, Cambodia also tries to balance relations with other militaries such as such as Japan and India.
Naval air crewmen oversee the transfer of ordnance during an ammunition on-load during operations in the Pacific.
photo: Paul L. Archer
In order to ensure and stabilize economic growth, Cambodia is also seeking to diversify its economic exchange and cooperation partners. It recently deepened cooperation with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), which is focused on promoting agriculture, improving infrastructure, enhancing social development through health care and education, and strengthening governance through legal reform. Cambodia-China bilateral trade has also increased over the years, reaching US$4.21 billion in 2015, with expectations of reaching US$5 billion within the year.
China has become Cambodia’s largest investor, with over US$10 billion in cumulative investments. In May 2015, Cambodia called on China to further encourage Chinese firms to explore investment opportunities in Cambodia. Vietnam is Cambodia’s second largest import source, and bilateral trade increased to US$5 billion in 2015. These developments have decreased Cambodia’s dependency on US aid and promoted sustainable economic development by strengthening regional economic ties.
In conclusion, smaller countries in Southeast Asia face a delicate diplomatic balancing act between the United States and China. Taking sides with either of these two superpowers presents undue risks. Due to China’s influence on the world stage, and uncertainty about US policy, countries in the region will seek to strike a balance between the two powers. Cambodia’s recent decision to suspend military exercises with the United States is a reflection of this uncertainty, and its desire to balance relations with the two powers, rather than favoring the United States over China. If recent developments in Cambodia are any indicator, Southeast Asian countries will be forced to walk an increasingly delicate balance between the United States and China.
Lieutenant Colonel Kennedy Lin is a PhD student at the ROC National Defense University. He can be reached for comment at lfklin@hotmail.com
