Window of Oppotunity

Strategic Vision vol. 7, no. 37 (April, 2018)

John Bolton’s appointment to Trump team holds promise for Taiwan-US ties

Dean Karalekas

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton speaks at the 2017 CPAC. As national security advisor, Bolton is expected to take a harder line against China.

photo: Gage Skidmore

On 22 March, 2018, US President Donald Trump appointed john Bolton to the position of national security adviser, prompting much speculation about how the addition of a known hard-liner to the Trump team will affect how the White House tackles such challenges as Iran, Russia, Syria, and China. Bolton, a former ambassador to the United Nations, will be the third national security adviser since Trump took office on January 20, 2017.

While media reports on the appointment have been breathless about the potential dangers—using such words as “warmonger,” for example—of having a well-known hawk whispering in Trump’s ear, the appointment has the potential to be a positive development for Taipei, especially given the recent turn in Beijing’s attention toward finally addressing the so-called Taiwan Problem.

If it wasn’t obvious prior, the fracas surrounding the establishment of the M503 flight route along the centreline between Chinese and Taiwanese airspace is indicative that Beijing is beginning to apply the same strategy in the Taiwan Strait that it successfully used to wrest de facto control over the disputed islands in the South China Sea (SCS). The Trump Administration would do well to familiarize itself with that strategy, and make some hard decisions about whether or not it is willing to lose control over much of the Pacific Ocean the way Washington has, over the past decade, lost its influence in the South China Sea.

Salami slicing strategy

Washington policymakers and bureaucrats who are dovish on China will no doubt counter that the M503 situation—as well as incidents in which the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force dispatched H-6K bombers and Su-30 and J-11 fighters to circle Taiwan, ostensibly as part of a drill—is far too small an incident to risk souring relations with the country that makes our fidget spinners. But of course this timid reaction is the very mechanism by which the strategy, termed “salami slicing,” operates. In essence, salami slicing refers to a number of actions, each of which is too small to raise a fuss over, but that cumulatively and over time accomplish a goal that, if attempted in one fell swoop, would be illegal or a cause for war.

Over the past few years, Beijing has been allowed to act with impunity in its gradual takeover of the disputed South China Sea: from land reclamation of miniscule islets, to deploying an oil rig in Vietnamese waters; from the militarization of SCS islands, to bullying Cambodia into silencing ASEAN on the issue; from militarizing its fishing fleet, to refusing to abide by the ruling from The Hague. In all cases, the global commentariat meekly tut-tutted Beijing at every step, but not even the smallest action was taken to halt any of it.

An MH-60S Sea Hawk helicopter lifts off the USS McCampbell during an exercise in the South China Sea, which has become more militarized in recent years.

photo: Elesia Patten

Now that Chinese control over the South China Sea is essentially complete, Beijing has turned its attention to Taiwan. And while Taiwan is essential to maintaining American and US allies’ control over the Western Pacific, it is not an issue that is likely to raise grassroots concern in Western countries. To the layman, it may seem reasonable that the South China Sea should belong exclusively to China, just by virtue of its name. Likewise on the issue of Taiwan: many average Americans are under the misapprehension that Taiwan is a province of China. This speaks more to the success of Beijing’s control over the narrative and its influence over Western media outlets (as well as Taipei’s dismal failure in making its voice heard in the global community) than it does of the education system in the States.

ROC President Tsai Ing-wen tours the Taiwan Police Academy. Taiwan is a values-based democracy, but has difficulty having its voice heard globally.

photo: Kokuyo

De facto independent

To be clear: Taiwan is not, nor has it ever been, a province of the People’s Republic of China. If it were, it would not be the thriving democracy it is today: it would not have its own military, its own currency, its own government, or control over its own borders as it does today: it would not have a thriving civil society; it would not have elected a progressive female president; it would not have become the first (and only) country in Asia to recognize same-sex marriage. These things simply do not happen under a communist one-party state. Moreover, it would not be the staunch—yet silent—US ally it is today. It is silent because neither side wishes to risk raising Beijing’s ire over the many, yet unacknowledged, political, military, and Track II exchanges that are constantly taking place between Taipei and Washington.

Unfortunately, neither Washington nor Taipei can afford to maintain this silence any longer—not so long as Beijing has set its sights on salami-slicing its way into Taiwan’s heart. For decades, “maintaining the status quo” has been a convenient fiction: a mantra that allowed the illusion of peace to continue in the Taiwan Strait. But over the years, the status quo has been anything but static: it has shifted significantly in China’s favour. Bit by bit, slice by slice. Only now, those slices are becoming more overt: more militaristic. Not just with the PLA warplanes encircling Taiwan, but by unilaterally establishing the M503 and other commercial flight routes through the gauntlet of two heavily armed militaries, Beijing is deliberately risking an incident that it could use as a pretext for war over Taiwan. Indeed: it is not unreasonable to speculate that China is deliberately creating the conditions for just such an incident.

Taipei’s response has been less than vigorous. In an effort to counter the threat posed by the aforementioned encirclement of Taiwan by PLA vessels and aircraft during military drills, the government has ordered the deployment of American-made MIM23 Hawk surface-to-air missiles in key positions on the outlying Orchid Island and Green Island. While the announcement of the deployment was a positive public-relations move, highlighting to the international community the threat posed by Chinese actions, much of the reporting focused on the age of the MIM-23 Hawk missile system, which was first fielded by the United States back in 1959. It is frightening to contemplate that these archaic missiles will be the frontline defence entrusted with protecting the islands from low-flying fighters and bombers operated by an increasingly modernizing PLA. Although perhaps that, too, was an ingenious PR move on Taipei’s part.

Taiwan’s vulnerability to Chinese attack and coercion has never been more starkly obvious. Thus it may be fortunate that a hawk such as Bolton has now taken over as a senior advisor in the only foreign government with a demonstrated commitment to Taiwan’s security.

For decades, policymakers and corporations have been justifying their economic engagement with China based on faith in Modernization Theory.

The US approach to China—that of most governments in the West, in fact—has been too soft for too long. Much of this has to do with the Sunk Cost fallacy. For decades, policymakers and corporations have been justifying their economic engagement with China based on faith in Modernization Theory, which basically states that political democratization will inevitably follow economic liberalization. Clearly, China has managed to buck that trend. Today, the economies of the Western world are so intertwined with the Chinese economy that everyone is invested in Beijing’s success, and yet they are no closer to democratization that they were 30 years ago. In fact, it’s quite the opposite—China is clearly moving from mere authoritarianism towards an old-school style of totalitarianism under Xi Jinping.

A file photo from 1973 depicting an improved Hawk missile launch. Taiwan is deploying the system on the outlying Orchid Island and Green Island.

Projecting strength

Bolton or no, there is nothing Taipei or Washington can realistically do about the M503 flight route—that salami has already been sliced. However, Bolton’s appointment may buy Washington some time: The Chinese are afraid of Trump. They are afraid of his unpredictability, of his seeming capriciousness, and his departure from traditional styles of conducting statecraft and governance. Moreover, the Chinese respect strength, and money. For all his faults, Trump projects toughness, and his wealth speaks for itself. Beijing will have to figure out how to deal with him.

In the meantime, it is likely that Beijing will tread lightly in the South China Sea for a few months. China’s SCS militarization is essentially complete, anyway. While America still has allies with interests in the region, Beijing will not want to risk a dust-up over a conflict that they have essentially already won, especially at a time when Xi is busy elsewhere, such as trying to grab land from India, and of course indimidating Taiwan, such as with the recent live-fire drills the PLA conducted in the Taiwan Strait.

Taipei should prepare for future such actions , now that Beijing seems to have turned its sights from the SCS to the Taiwan Strait. China will use the same strategy that worked so well in the SCS, except that it will expand the strategy’s application into the diplomatic sphere as well as the military. They will do all they can to make moves against Taiwan that will fall far short of a casus belli to ensure that the United States won’t intercede. Indeed, they are already doing this through the “sharp power” initiative, for example. Fortunately, in the long run, this sharp power is unlikely to work out as Beijing intends—enticing Taiwanese graduates to earn lots of money working in China will not turn them into pro-unification stooges. The Taiwanese are too smart for that.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump, and their wives pose for a photograph at the entrance of Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.

photo: White House

Moreover, the government in Taipei must leverage Bolton’s appointment, and move quickly on certain initiatives during his tenure as national security advisor in a White House famous for the short livelihood of its appointees. Already, the Taiwan Travel Act, signed by Trump after unanimous approval by both the House and Senate, has been a meaningful step forward in US-Taiwan relations. During this window of opportunity, Washington may be disposed to look more favorably on conducting port visits, for example, or starting talks on the sale of F35s. Bolton’s appointment does not mean these options are a slam dunk, but at the very least, the White House will not be scared off by empty threats to go to war if a US ship docks at a Taiwan port. For one thing, Bolton understands Washington’s One China policy—what it is, and more importantly, what it isn’t. This isn’t nothing: the media is full of quotes from officials and interpretations by journalists who get it wrong, and who should know better.

The USS Oak Hill arrives in Batumi, Georgia. In addition to contributing to the local economy, the US Navy’s port visits serve to boost bilateral relations.

photo: Dengrier Baez

Taiwan is in the unenviable geostrategic position of being a link in the First Island Chain, and therefore China’s key to controlling the Western Pacific. While there are doubtless many who experience a frisson of excitement at the prospect of a declining America—for so long the world’s sole superpower— and of China’s rise to presumptive hegemon in East Asia, President Trump is clearly not one of these. For all his faults, it seems unlikely he wants to be the leader who presides over the loss (to a communist state, no less) of American allies and friends in an economically vital and growing region.

Washington not only has the geopolitical imperative to take concrete actions to deter Beijing from incremental military adventurism in the Taiwan Strait, it has the moral imperative to do so. The aforementioned Taiwan Travel Act is a step in the right direction, especially if this is leveraged as the beginnings of Washington’s own salami slice strategy. Beijing will kick up a fuss, as it always does, but that will die down, and at the end of the day, China wants to avert war as much as the nations of the West do. It is time that policymakers stopped ascribing upon the Beijing regime their own naïve hopes for China’s role in the world, and adopted a realistic understanding of Beijing’s goals and the methods by which it seeks to achieve them.

Dr. Dean Karalekas is a Canadian researcher specializing in civil-military relations, emergency management, and Asia-Pacific security. He can be reached for comment at dkaralekas@hotmail.com