Strategic Shift

Strategic Vision vol. 7, no. 37 (April, 2018)

Taipei must embrace Indo-Pacific Strategy to strengthen regional security

Charles Yang

President Tsai Ing-wen’s increased emphasis on ROC defense issues is reflected in her frequent support and interaction with military personnel.

photo: ROC Presidential Office

The Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy has been brought to the fore in Taiwan by the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen. In December, Tsai indicated Taiwan’s willingness to support the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy, which was articulated by US President Donald Trump during his tour of Asia. This concept has inspired a great deal of discussion and interest in Taiwan. While the strategy has been criticized as being too ambiguous, it would be in Taipei’s interest to participate in this developing alignment. Taipei should use this development as an opportunity to build more momentum towards engaging in security dialogue with Japan, fostering deeper relations with the United States, and investing more in its own defense as a way to demonstrate its commitment to its allies.

The origin of the term Indo-Pacific appears to have first emerged in 2007 when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spoke about the importance of a Strategic Diamond consisting of Japan, India, Australia, and the United States. Ten years later, his concept found new relevance in the words of US president Donald Trump and others. In August of 2007, Japanese Prime Minster Abe addressed the Indian Parliament and articulated a vision for the Indo-Pacific region. He spoke of a “confluence of the two seas,” seeking to draw a strategic link between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Abe posited that Japan and India had a shared responsibility, as maritime nations located at the opposite edges of the “two seas,” to ensure the maintenance of peace and prosperity anchored by democratic principles.

When Abe returned to power in 2012, he expressed his renewed commitment in an article entitled “Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond.” The piece reiterated Abe’s viewpoints that peace, stability, and freedom of navigation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are “inseparable,” and reaffirmed Tokyo’s commitment to preserving freedom of the commons in both regions. “Australia, India, Japan, and the US state of Hawaii form a diamond,” he argued, “to safeguard the maritime commons stretching from the Indian Ocean region to the western Pacific.”

Enhanced engagement

Abe declared his intention to “invest, to the greatest possible extent, Japan’s capabilities in this security diamond.” Since then, Japan has been taking measures to do precisely that. In April 2014, Abe revised Japan’s long-standing policy of prohibiting arms exports. Japanese firms can now engage with foreign partners to develop and export defense equipment more easily. This was particularly important for relations with India and Australia. Japan signed an agreement on defense technology transfer with Australia in July 2014, and with India in December 2015.

Momentum for the Indo-Pacific strategy was bolstered when US President Donald Trump voiced his support for the idea during his November 2017 visit to Asia. In a speech at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in Vietnam, Trump repeatedly used the phrase “free and open Indo-Pacific,” and told delegates that independent nations could “thrive in freedom and peace” and all states “play by the rules.” This phrase was used repeatedly on his Asia trip, except in the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

It is reasonable for Trump to pursue this strategy. Washington is increasingly losing its position as the world’s leading power, while the PRC is gaining ground. The PRC is growing faster than the United States, and it seems inevitable that the PRC will surpass America eventually. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), China is on track to rank as the world’s largest economy. India is not far behind, and will also likely surpass the United States to take the second spot.

Trump’s support for the Indo-Pacific Strategy comes at a time when divisions between China and the United States are widening. The new US National Security Strategy specifically identifies China and Russia as strategic competitors. The Office of the United States Trade Representative recently stated that it had been a mistake for Washington to support China’s membership in the World Trade Organization in 2001 on terms that have failed to force Beijing to open its economy. Susan Schwab, the current US Trade Representative, announced that the United States would impose stiff tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines from China. Some observers point to this comment as a sign that a trade war is emerging between the United States and China. More precisely, it is seen as a sign that the United States is preparing to strengthen its hard power to mitigate its decline relative to the PRC.

Sensing a strategic shift in regional developments, President Tsai quickly expressed support for the IndoPacific strategy. On 11 December, 2017, President Tsai said that, as a free and democratic country, Taiwan is committed to strengthening its contributions to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy and safeguarding the rules-based international order. On the same day, Chiou I-jen, head of the Taiwan-Japan Relations Association, stated that if Taiwan was able to participate in the strategy and accede to the “Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership” led by Japan, it would be conducive to regional peace and prosperity. Two days later, Vice President Chen Chien-jen also said that Taiwan would support the US-initiated Indo-Pacific Strategy, and looks forward to working with the two countries to realize these new initiatives.

There are two opposing views on the Indo-Pacific Strategy in Taiwan. Pro-DPP media and think tanks generally support Tsai’s policy. Other observers such as the KMT’s National Policy Foundation, however, argue that this strategy is unclear. Scholars such as Fuh-Sheng Tzeng raised concerns even before Tsai announced her support for the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Tzeng, member of the Atlantic Council and a professor at Tamkang University and National Defense University, raised the question of whether the United States and Japan had really solidified their policy towards the PRC.

If Tokyo and Washington have not articulated a clear strategy towards Beijing, then other countries might be hesitant to support the Indo-Pacific Strategy. After Tsai’s December announcement, critics disparaged her for revealing her position too early. Taiwan may achieve nothing, they fear, and simply provoke China. Professor Chen Yi-hsin of Chinese Culture University and columnist Sun Yang-Ming both argued that the Indo-Pacific Strategy would fail to include the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in its plan. How would India and Australia respond if a large international crisis arose in the Pacific, they queried.

It is doubtful that a majority of Taiwanese people would agree with the arguments put forth by blueleaning scholars. People will not be convinced that Taiwan should refrain from joining this strategy simply because it is unclear. In fact, the situation has become increasingly tough for governments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait after President Tsai took the stage. Since the Indo-Pacific Strategy is intended to counter the PRC, pan-blue scholars are asking whether Taiwan should really stand on the front line to balance against the PRC. Indeed, can Taiwan afford to pay the price of balancing against the PRC in the long term?

Despite the concerns noted above, Taiwan should demonstrate its willingness to take part in the IndoPacific Strategy. From the perspective of offensive realism, the United States and the PRC will naturally compete with each other. American strength is decreasing relative to the PRC, and it needs help from middle powers. The fact that this strategy is unclear actually provides Taiwan with an excellent opportunity to help forge new rules. President Trump has also laid out his new US national security strategy based on his America First policy. The PRC has been identified as a competitor to the United States. With the goal of signaling itself a trusted partner of Washington and Tokyo, Taipei articulated its position even before the US announcement of the new national security strategy—a calculated risk by the Tsai administration that proved to be the right move.

Long-term concerns

Japan has been hedging against China and would certainly welcome Taiwan’s participation in the IndoPacific strategy. Given Taiwan’s proximity to Japan, and the fact that Japan’s Sea Lines of Communication pass near Taiwan, it is natural that Japan would be concerned about Taiwan’s long-term security.

The US embrace of the Indo-Pacific Strategy has several implications for Asian countries seeking to participate. First, the United States is asking its allies to take more responsibility to protect themselves. It is clear that Japan will play a more important role in East Asian security, and Tokyo is already moving in this direction. Last year, Japan released a document titled, “Priority Policy for Development Cooperation FY 2017” which was published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. This statement affirms Japan’s commitment to ASEAN countries, South Asia, and even East Africa and the Northern Corridor.

Taipei should take advantage of Japan’s increasing regional commitment to push for deeper ties with Tokyo. Taiwan should push for more technical assistance from Japan as it moves to develop its own fleet of submarines. Taiwan could also seek to develop closer unofficial military ties with Japan, much as the United States and Taiwan did when they established “sister unit” ties between several army units in 2015. The aim of establishing sister unit relations is to facilitate direct interaction between officers in similar military units in order to exchange ideas on tactics and operations.

As the United States reorients itself in the Indo-Pacific, it is important for Taipei to remind Washington that Taiwan’s security is vital to regional security and broader US interests. If Taiwan were to be drawn into China’s orbit, Beijing would have free reign to the Second Island Chain, and countries throughout the Asian region would lose confidence in America’s ability to maintain regional security. Thus, Taiwan has a central role to play in this new strategy.

Finally, as it joins the Indo-Pacific Strategy, Taiwan should strengthen its own national defense. The new strategy appeared because the United States wants its allies to take greater responsibility for their own defense. At the same time, it also recognizes the challenge from increasing air and maritime operations beyond the First Island Chain by the People’s Liberation Army. Taipei must demonstrate that it is a reliable partner in East Asia, and take more responsibility to defend itself.

The Indo-Pacific Strategy presents Taiwan with a unique opportunity to establish a closer relationship with Japan and encourage Japan to take a larger role in the region’s security affairs. Taiwan has always been burdened with an important geostrategic position in the First Island Chain. As such, Taipei and Tokyo both played a similar role in the US-led containment strategy during the Cold War. Despite this shared history, Taiwan and Japan do not have a close security relationship at the present time. The Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy provides an opportunity to work towards such a relationship. It is obvious that the balance of regional power is changing between the United States and PRC. The Indo-Pacific Strategy is intended to counter the PRC’s “one belt one road” strategy, but the United States cannot effectively hedge against the PRC’s growing development and influence on its own. America still relies on middle powers to share this responsibility. Taiwan has to show that it can shoulder greater defense responsibility in order to earn its seat at the table in a future Indo-Pacific order.

Two ROC Navy Cheng-kung Class frigates operate east of Taiwan during a recent exercise.

photo: ROC Presidential Office

Dr. Charles Yang received his PhD from National Taiwan University’s Graduate Institute of National Development and is an assistant professor now. He can be reached at yyc0606@yahoo.com.tw